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Zach

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20/20

True Crime Vault: Toxic Love

2069.205

Jacob's attorney says it would be a, quote, quantum leap to believe that Jacob wanted dead the ex-girlfriend he once so loved.

20/20

True Crime Vault: Toxic Love

2161.979

She then characterized his continuing efforts to contact her as a man who was desperate, and she said certainly she was beyond frightened.

20/20

True Crime Vault: Toxic Love

2214.634

He said the entire time in the back of his mind were thoughts of his young daughter.

20/20

True Crime Vault: Toxic Love

2243.988

Clearly the strongest evidence against Leon Jacob were his own words.

20/20

True Crime Vault: Toxic Love

2470.172

I think that spoke volumes in this case. All rise for the jury.

20/20

True Crime Vault: Toxic Love

2480.657

You did not see a physical outward change in emotion. You may be seated. On his face or in his body.

20/20

True Crime Vault: Toxic Love

831.934

That was Zach's story. He said that he was never going to go through with the murders.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1017.262

And then the other thing is they just do not like the long-term fiscal picture of the US. One other chart we should bring up is interest on the national debt. What you can see here is that it has gone absolutely parabolic in the last couple of years. Our interest on the debt is something like 1.3, 1.4 trillion a year. 1.3, 5 trillion run rate. Yep.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1040.518

And it's something like 20 to 25% of federal revenue now is going to debt service. And this continues to increase. Now, I think there was an expectation that we'd be able to get this line to go back down once we had rate cuts, right?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1054.37

Because if inflation is licked and the Fed can lower interest rates again, and we can get back to a 2% 10-year bond, which is where we were a few years ago, then all of a sudden that national debt service becomes a little bit more reasonable, right? I mean, you could service that debt at half the cost. But now it looks like that may not happen.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1075.626

So just to wrap this up, I just think that the market doesn't like these fundamentals of the US fiscal picture. You've got rapidly increasing debt service costs. You've got an inflation picture that is murky and may not be going away. And the bond markets are starting to price in higher interest rates for longer. And this is why Paul Tudor Jones is saying all roads lead to inflation.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1100.354

And this is why Druckenmiller is shorting US treasuries.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

189.919

This is like when he stole the Pappy Van Winkle from my plane. Remember that?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1985.584

Yeah, look, I think that believing you're going to be an influencer is like believing that you're going to be like a rock star or movie actor or something like that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1996.057

It's like a one in a million shot. It's just not a great thing to want to design your career around because it's just very unlikely to happen. So I think you're better off finding a career that you're passionate about, but where you're actually adding value. The world doesn't need 50 something percent of the...

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2015.862

population become influencers that's kind of crazy it reminds me of a line from fight club where tyler durden says we've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires and movie gods and rock stars but we won't and we're slowly learning that fact and we're very very pissed off and that was gen x that was china yeah so yeah that was they're headed for a uh a fight club like realization about this sax how do you advise a young person on

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2058.287

So I think it's just important to recognize that if we ourselves are influencers, the reason why we're not being hypocritical is that none of us here, with the possible exception of J-Cal, ever set out to be influencers, right? Yeah. We did something different. We actually had a career and we did something interesting. And then as a result of that, maybe people want to listen to our pod.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

207.375

He thinks that anything that's not bolted down is basically just like a gift. It's like a freebie.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2079.623

The idea that you can just go be an influencer without having actually done anything interesting. What's your credential for that? So what I would advise is just people should go do something productive. And then if it leads to other people... wanting to hear from them, then that that's good.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2096.634

But setting out to be someone that other people should listen to without having any experience or having done anything productive in your life, it's like, why should we listen to you?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2276.291

Yeah, I think that's a great point. You kind of have to mentally burn the boats when you do a startup.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2386.624

Just on the question of how do you reposition? So first of all, the easy one to avoid is treasuries, right? I mean, do you really want to accept a 4.2% yield for 10 years to own a US bond? And with the looming inflation that is still out there, or the looming debt crisis that might be out there. So that's probably the easy one.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2408.55

I think the hard one is around equities because equities are at an all-time high. Part of the reason why they're at an all-time high is because the Fed telegraphed that we'd have big rate cuts this year. Remember, at the beginning of this year, they said there would be seven rate cuts. Those expectations have kept coming down.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2426.244

I think we had one, I guess we had a double rate cut last month and we were supposed to have one more 50-bit rate cut this year. I have to wonder if that's still going to happen. And more to the point, if you believe Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, we might be in for a extended period of higher interest rates for longer. And that will be bad for equities.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2448.348

Equities normally are inflation protected in the sense that those companies can just raise prices over time and keep up with inflation. And so equities are generally a pretty good thing to own in the face of inflation. But if we're in for a period of high interest rates longer than anyone thinks, that's going to be bad for equities.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2727.147

The big difference between a bond and a stock is that the bond provides you with, like you said, fixed income payments, and those would be horribly debased if you have high inflation. A stock gives you earnings and a company can always raise its prices. And so in theory, it should be hedged against inflation.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2744.597

But both a stock and a bond are similar in the sense that they're both hurt badly by rising interest rates, right? Because the discount rate is higher. So this is where I'm just not sure about equities is if we do head into a new regime of higher rates longer, does that... hurt equities, even though equities normally are pretty good inflation hedge. So I just don't know the answer to that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2768.569

I do think we're headed for a period of constraints. I think that since 2008, we basically were living in a sort of a consequence-free environment where The Fed could keep interest rates at or near zero. The federal government could spend as much as it wanted. We sort of normalized emergency conditions.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2790.478

First, we had trillion-dollar deficits as a result of the 2008 GFC, and then those got normalized. Then we had $2 trillion deficits as a result of COVID, and those got normalized. And then the Fed was also doing QE, which means that it's buying the U.S. government's own bonds, thereby propping up U.S. bonds and the bond market.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2815.171

yeah, keeping interest rates lower than they otherwise would need to be to attract those bondholders. So for about 15 years, we kind of normalized emergency conditions and consequence-free spending by the US government. I think now we may be entering an era of consequences.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2832.899

And what that means is that you can't push on one aspect of the federal government's balance sheet without giving up on something else. So in other words, if you're going to allow higher inflation, basically monetizing the debt, the bond markets are going to make the government pay higher interest rates on its debt, right? Because they're not dumb.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2851.278

So we're going to be in a world of higher interest rates, which means that equities get clobbered, real estate gets clobbered, the value of people's homes gets clobbered. So there's real consequences from that. Or you can tackle inflation, which means that the Fed's going to have to tighten the

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2867.552

But then I think what that means is the federal government's going to have to get religion around spending. They're not just going to be able to spend all of this money.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3172.702

To just go back to your definition of GDP, it's true that if you cut government, that might cut GDP because GDP includes government spending.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3181.229

However, one could argue that although technically that is how the definitions work, that by cutting government, you actually unlock resources that could be used by the private sector and that ultimately it would lead to more efficiency but also stimulate the private sector. And I think that argument is particularly true when you've got an economy running at full employment.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

320.046

Really excited, yeah. All right, so I have a question.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3204.183

So, you know, if we had lots of unemployment, then cutting all these government workers would be very painful. But if you've got an economy that's doing quite well and there's a lot of job creation going on, then it's a good time to actually cut government because the private sector can reabsorb these people.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3219.949

We should use the fact that we still have that, we have a good employment picture, to make these painful cuts now as opposed to waiting until it would be far more difficult.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

323.789

Is our attendance required at this thing?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3246.649

All the data is basically pointing one direction, which is a Trump victory. And by data, I mean the polling, I mean the prediction markets, and then the early voting numbers. So if you look at the polls, there were two new polls by mainstream media. One, the Wall Street Journal yesterday said that Trump was up three nationally.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3267.168

And I think CNBC had a poll this morning saying that Trump was up two nationally. That's very good because- That's the popular vote. That's the popular vote. So if Trump is winning the popular vote, it's a landslide.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

327.8

I have no desire to participate in this.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3279.015

Most prognosticators say that because Republicans have a slight electoral college advantage, that Harris would need to win the popular vote by more than 2% to have a chance at winning the electoral college. So if Trump is winning the popular vote, then it's a landslide.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3296.505

Second area is if you look at the state by state polling, Trump has been advancing pretty much in every battleground state for the last couple of weeks. If you use RCP, Trump is now ahead slightly in every battleground state and the momentum is all towards Trump. And then the final data point is around early voting in states where they have this early voting and put out the numbers.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3318.89

The Republicans are tracking well ahead of where they were in 2020. Now, there's still a question of You know, does this mean that Republicans are just shifting their votes to voting earlier and then they'll do less well on Election Day? There's always that chance. But right now, if you're a Republican, it's what you want to see.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3338.08

And if you're a Democrat, it's definitely not what you you want to see.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

336.685

I thought I was signing up for a podcast. I don't know why I need to do all these events.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3361.755

Sorry, I forgot to mention prediction markets. Prediction markets have moved very, very sharply in favor of Trump. It's almost two-thirds, one-third now. in favor of Trump. So there's been a huge move among bettors that Trump is going to win.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3375.18

Yeah, PolyMarket and then CalShe as well.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3590.231

I mean, look, I'm not going to try and possibly compare that to what the Democrats are saying right now, which is that Trump is literally Hitler. They're calling him a fascist. She called him a fascist.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3648.837

I think, unfortunately, the mainstream media is responsible for giving roughly half the country a psychosis about Trump because they are pushing out this rhetoric nonstop that he's a fascist, that he's Hitler. They keep putting out all these fake stories, and they are basically training people or indoctrinating them that he's a slight threat to democracy.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3667.223

I was having dinner last night with someone who's a Democrat who pretty much gets all their information from mainstream media, and she's terrified of this. It's just not who Donald Trump is. It's ridiculous hyperbole. But if you're locked in that media ecosystem, that's all you hear. You really are frightened by this.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3684.137

So I think that the media, the media's irresponsibility, the way that they don't report honestly and that they gin up these threats has really terrified half the country.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3699.647

Well, look, if you're losing your power of lying, I mean, that's like pretty par for the course. What's so horrible about that? I mean, you could make the argument that she's lied about a lot of things.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3708.114

As Anderson Cooper interrogated her quite well just yesterday on that town hall, he pointed out that she had said 50 times that Trump's wall was a stupid idea, and now she appears to be in favor of it. So I think that accusing your opponent of lying is pretty par for the course for a politician. What's not par for the course is saying that your opponent is literally Hitler and a fascist.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

371.625

For those of you listening. I'm happy seeing you guys through Zoom. You know, we can minimize the impersonal stuff.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3728.727

That's just going to a whole different level of rhetoric.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3740.613

Okay. I'm actually pretty optimistic because I actually don't think it's going to be that close. I mean, right now it's looking like Maybe landslide's too strong a word, but a solid victory for Trump. That's what the polls are showing. That's what the prediction markets are showing. That's what the early voting is showing.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3755.611

And if you look at all the other data points right now, it's showing Trump winning pretty handily. The other data point that we haven't talked about is just how these campaigns are acting in the final stretch. If you look at the Trump campaign, it's pretty much steady as she goes. You look at the Kamala campaign, and they're in this throwing spaghetti against the wall mode. They're back to

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3776.744

kind of the dark Brandon type messaging, where the reason to vote for us is Trump's a fascist. This is very different than their messaging when they made the switcheroo from Biden to Kamala, right? When they first made that switch, they said, okay, let's get away from this dark Brandon threat to democracy type messaging. It doesn't seem to be working.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3795.942

Let's emphasize Kamala Harris as a change agent, as a transformational candidate, as a candidate of joy and positive vibes. And they did get a big bounce in the polls because of that. The problem is that over the last couple of months, that sort of bounce in the polls has worn off as Harris has not been able to explain what she would change.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3817.958

She keeps getting asked in all these interviews, what would you do differently than Joe Biden? Anderson Cooper just asked her that yesterday for like the 19th time. And she still does not have an answer to that question. And so the problem she has is that the sort of veneer they gave her as this change agent has kind of worn off. And she's seen as a continuation of Biden.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3838.82

And the public does not want a continuation of Biden. And so now it feels like they're frantically trying to figure out how to reposition their back to the to the anti-Trump sort of hysterical messaging, which didn't work. It wasn't working three months ago when they made the switcheroo.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3855.385

So I tend to think that if you look at the behavior of these campaigns, it's pretty easy to see which one feels confident and which one is in a panic.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

400.441

I mean, that's possible. I'm going to tell him not to do anything that nice, though, for J-Cal.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4134.933

Just to add... You know, since Jake, how you're referencing an episode that I participated in and said some things. I mean, look, I think that the goal of the mainstream media has been to try and keep us in the heat of that moment for four years. I mean, if you've watched MSNBC for the last four years, it's like J6 is occurring every single day. I mean, this is all that they talk about.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4158.208

But I think, like Jamal said, we have learned a lot of things since that day. I didn't know, for example, that Twitter had censored President Trump's tweets telling all of these people to go home, that basically he said to protest peacefully. And then when they rioted, that he actually published tweets to try and tell them to go home. So that was new information.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4178.97

And when that came out, remember at the beginning of the whole primary cycle, Trump did that town hall on CNN with Caitlin Collins, where he dramatically pulled the piece of paper out of his pocket with the tweets and started reading them. That was a lot of new information for people. And I think that gave him a different picture.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4196.043

And then I think one other point that I think is important is that imagine if the press had tried to keep us in the heat of the moment. of the summer of 2020 riots, the George Floyd riots, then we'd have a very different perception of which party was in favor of riots. Because Tim Walz was the governor of Minnesota when those riots occurred. He did not want to send in the National Guard.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4217.858

Trump did. And then Kamala Harris tried to raise money for bail for an organization that was bailing out some of these protesters and rioters out of prison. So if the media was so inclined, they could portray Kamala Harris and Tim Walz as the party of the riots of the summer of 2020.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4235.913

I think at the end of the day that both those takes are propagandistic, and they happened four years ago, and it's certainly... a piece of information that voters can take into account, but it's only one piece of information. And there's a whole lot of other issues and policies in this election. And I think at this point, everything that happened four years ago is kind of priced into the stock.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4257.856

And what voters want to know about now is, What would you do on the issues? What would you do about immigration? What would you do about inflation? What would you do about the economy? And when you look at the polling on those issues that voters say matter to them, Trump has a decisive advantage. And Kamala Harris cannot explain what she would do differently than Joe Biden.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4282.458

Totally. That is throwing her under the bus. But it's also just preserving his own credibility because it's hard to look.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4318.404

I think I think in one important way, Kamala Harris has been set up to fail here because on the one hand, she wants to distance herself from Joe Biden's record. But on the other hand, she won't say what she would do differently. So she's in this kind of like never, never land this limbo. Yeah, that's right.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4341.479

They should have run a primary for sure. I think they could have had a better candidate. But also, I think to go back to Freeberg's question, this is a little bit of a premortem. What should they have done differently? I think you either defend Joe Biden's record or say what you would do differently. You can't be in this limbo state.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4356.876

And, you know, Joe Biden's got to be in the White House there gritting his teeth. wanting to get out on the campaign trail and defending his record. Because I think Joe Biden thinks he has a good record. And there are things you could say in favor of that record. I mean, I personally don't think it's great. But you could talk about the full employment picture.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4373.573

You could talk about the fact that, yes, we had 9% inflation, but now it's down to 3%. I mean, there are things you could say. Equity markets. Equity markets are at an all-time high. I mean, he signed a lot of legislation that he obviously believed in. So the Democrats do have a record to run on.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4389.007

It's not a record that I personally believe in, but it's certainly one that I think you could make an effort to defend. And I think Biden, if he was the candidate, would be defending that record.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4399.075

And it's very awkward to have a candidate who was part of this administration who will not defend that record, who distanced herself from that record, but won't really say with any detail or conviction what she would do differently. That is just a losing proposition. And I think Anderson Cooper exposed it more than Brett Baer last night because Anderson Cooper had the time.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4418.912

Brett Baer only had 26 minutes and Brett Baer was seen as adversarial, whereas Anderson Cooper is fundamentally a friendly interviewer. And when she can't answer those questions for Anderson Cooper, that's when you know you're done.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

444.138

I've never even heard of that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4548.618

Well, it's hard to be up 20 points when the entire mainstream media is against you. There's only reporting positive things about the other candidates, only reporting negative things about you, and you have a three to one money disadvantage. One thing you could say for Kamala Harris is she has been a good fundraiser. There's plenty of billionaires who are funding her campaign.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4566.59

They literally have three times more money than the Trump campaign. And even in California, which is a safe state for them, you're seeing Kamala campaign ads everywhere. That just tells you they're so flush with cash that they can afford to spread the money around even in California. So look, the reality is that Trump has the entire establishment against him.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4586.042

And I think for him to be ahead in the polls and the prediction markets and the early voting fairly decisively is an extraordinary achievement. I think he's probably the only candidate who could have done that. In any event, and I do think, J. Cal, that Kamala has tried to make some of the arguments that you just said, not very crisply, but she's trying to walk back on the border.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4608.381

The problem is they have no credibility on that because the Democrats for the last eight years have fought Trump on the border wall. It's his signature issue. And if you don't think Republicans should be believed on abortion, there's absolutely no reason to believe Democrats on the border. They fought Trump's wall.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4626.025

I think that's bad parts of it all for scrap metal. She was supposed to be the border czar, didn't even visit the border, which shows that she never thought it was important. Now she wants to pretend that she's Trump on the border. Public's not buying it.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4689.911

Well, they just waited way too late. I mean, there's no question that last month they radically pivoted their media strategy. She became the candidate roughly three months ago. For the first two months, they didn't let her do any press interviews. Then they realized that their internals were bad, they're behind in the polls. So now they're having her go out and do a lot of media.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4706.502

And like I said, a couple of weeks ago, that started to create a doom loop because she is not a great media performer. So her polls started getting even worse. So then they got to put her out on more media

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4720.731

I'll give you credit. If the Kamala campaign were a startup, we'd be saying it's in a death spiral right now.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

508.507

I'm a New York State guy. Well done.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

5621.336

I'm just not an expert on Starbucks. I mean, I do like their product, but...

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

5628.985

I just get an Americano with a splash of oat milk.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

5656.069

I'm going to find out in a couple of weeks. I'll let you know. Don't put that stuff in your body, David. I bet they do.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

5728.012

I'm living a great life right now. Next time. He's stealing anything that's not nailed down.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

59.632

Something simple is great. Is that the cashmere sweater with the rhino horn buttons?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

881.36

Well, I think as you heard right there, the key line that Paul Tudor Jones said was all roads lead to inflation. I mean, that's what's basically happening right now is that the market is afraid that inflation is not whipped and is going to resurface and the Fed may have to pivot from the pivot and raise interest rates. That's why he doesn't want to own any treasuries.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

904.236

Separately, another financial legend, Stan Druckenmiller, gave an interview where he has something like a 20% short position, meaning 20% of his holdings are short US Treasuries right now. So he's betting that there are long-term inflation pressures and that rates are going to have to rise.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

925.07

And you're seeing, again, that since the Fed cut rates on September 18th by 50 basis points, that the 10-year T-bills yield has risen by 60 basis points. So I think my interpretation is that this is less about the election and more about the markets not liking the Fed's rate cut on September 18th. I think that in hindsight, it was too big.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

950.681

We discussed it on the show, and I pointed out that the 50 base point cut was contradictory in the sense that The only two times in recent history where the Fed began a rate cutting cycle with a 50 basis point cut was in 2001 and 2008, which were on the verge of pretty big recessions. And so the Fed felt like it needed to cut dramatically. in order to help stave off those recessions.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

980.158

But that was not Powell's rhetoric. What Powell said is the economy was doing very well. So what I said a month ago was if the economy is doing really well, why wouldn't you just tiptoe into the rate counting cycle with say a 25 base point cut and then see how the market absorbs it and get another month's inflation data.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

997.403

Well, we've gotten another month of inflation data, and it's showing that these are not huge moves, but it's showing that inflation was a core CPI, which is a little bit higher than expected. So again, the market is concerned that inflation is not whipped, that the Fed may have been overly precipitous in how it cut rates.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1671.574

Where does cloud go? Cloud is in search or advertising. That's got to be figured out. I don't know the answer to that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

4767.654

It certainly jolted me awake, Zach, so I'll tell you that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

6087.274

You think six guys on a yacht did this?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

6250.566

I'm doing all in. I'm doing all in.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

1040.242

Don't change your hair. Don't change your hair for some guy. This isn't grease.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

1059.59

Yeah.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

1060.411

Uh-huh. I will be expecting a phone call from you.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

367.306

I'm sorry.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

698.828

Uh, yeah.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

702.23

Jeff?

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

707.337

This is Jeff, right? Yeah. Oh my God, what's up? Why are you calling me?

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

717.286

Yeah, I know what you do. We talked about it one night.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

727.054

We know each other? Yeah, you know Zach from this bar we met like a month ago?

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

737.903

Hey. Jeff, why are all these people on the line? What's up?

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

750.488

Okay. Okay. So you're just doing your show? Yeah.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

757.971

That's cool, man. That's really cool. We should hang again, you know? It was really fun last time.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

787.2

Okay. Okay.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

817.921

So you're saying Amanda called you to call me?

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

825.543

So this is just like a random thing? That's the only reason you're calling?

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

844.378

remember Zach you guys talked about horses at the country bar remember waffle phase her favorite fat horse from when she was little yeah I was just having a normal conversation didn't we have a blast yep we got along great Amanda but yeah I mean the tone alone what was wrong are you not attracted to Amanda No, she's very beautiful.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

927.461

Yeah. Yeah. You know, it's like, you seem really, you seem really cool. And it's kind of like, you know, if, you know, if I was, if I really wanted, if I, I would have reached out or I would have found, you know, like, okay, Amanda, you seem great. You're, you're not, you're not quite my type.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

957.325

Oh, greatly, actually. Yeah.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

987.861

In so many ways, yes. Okay.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update Classic: Cowboy Confusion

990.783

We got it.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

1067.286

And I'm both solid, so there's a good chance you'll see me there.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

1109.975

Well, you know, I think fate will lend a hand and do its thing, and I've got a good feeling we'll see each other next month. Oh, my gosh.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

264.352

Well, I just ran into her again, and we actually went on another first date.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

286.534

Yeah, well, it was like a few months in between when we did that.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

311.644

Yeah, man. I met her while I was bartending a joint bachelor slash bachelorette backyard party. And she was just one of the guests. Okay. Right.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

331.334

Well, she said that I basically talked about myself too much and my business too much.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

347.126

Well, it's kind of funny because I was bartending another bachelorette party. Oh, really? She was at that one, too.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

358.996

I guess a lot of her friends are getting married right now, so she's bouncing from wedding to wedding.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

375.347

First, there was that deer in the headlights where we both just kind of locked eyes and froze for a second.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

381.691

Well, I didn't open up very well. I started with, you know, hey, it's funny that... A lot of your friends are getting snatched up, and you're still single.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

395.753

Yeah. I tried to stop it as it was coming out, but it didn't work. Oh, my gosh.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

402.338

Well, she said something like, well, there you have it. That's why I didn't want another date with you. Ah, yeah.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

420.411

Well, it wasn't really a date officially. It was like we... We were hanging out at the bachelorette party while I was on break, and then we were hanging out in this garden area, and we actually kind of made out a little bit.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

476.281

I beg to differ. I think she was definitely interested.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

482.166

Probably the makeout. Yeah, I mean, it just seemed like there were sparks flying because she didn't pull back. She seemed to be into it, and I was certainly into it.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

502.84

That's correct. We're back at the square one. Oh, man.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

661.48

A little bit. I mean, come on. Things happen for a reason. And the fact that we ran into each other again, just, kind of sparked it for me. Like, you know, maybe there is something here. Maybe fate's stepping in.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

841.858

Yeah, here we are back again.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

853.544

You said it was a good mistake though. I do not remember saying that part.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

871.112

I was probably the last guy you made out with. So, you know, I must be the ringer.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

879.919

I figured you were kind to me. You trusted me to call you an Uber where you didn't trust anyone else to call one for you. Oh,

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

951.303

Okay, you know what? If dating a successful mobile bartender isn't really a dream come true for you, I do have bigger goals than that. Oh. I also want to integrate mobile karaoke with it as well. Hey. It's actually smart plans.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

972.129

You can come get your confidence from me and then go ahead and sing your song right after.

Brooke and Jeffrey: Second Date Update

Second Date Update: First Date Redate

990.056

One thing you probably don't know about me is that I was basically raised in a trailer. And for my ninth birthday, I got a microphone in a boom box and I used it. I kind of have a natural sound in my voice as well. I wouldn't be surprised if it wooed you just hearing it.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1016.924

But I remember it was odd that it didn't seem to pop out of somewhere. It didn't come from behind a tree. I saw it just standing there in a small pile of bush. It felt like it hadn't been there like two seconds ago. It's sitting in the same posture that a dog would have if you told it to sit, but it's facing me directly, pretty still.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1047.253

At this point, I'm still because I'm a little dumbfounded at what I'm seeing. It doesn't immediately strike me as so odd because it's in a familiar shape like a canine, but the more I look at it, the weirder it looks. I immediately knew it wasn't my dog because my dog is a miniature black lab and this dog is very white. The color is almost like somebody had drowned it in paint, in white paint.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1080.879

But additionally, the light scattered around it in a really strange way. It was like it was getting a light source that nothing else was. Like it was reflecting light that only it was receiving. It wasn't shining on anything else. I struggle to describe this because I haven't seen anything like it before or since, but it was as if it was putting out light that it shouldn't have.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1110.307

If you've ever seen a bad Photoshop where the lighting on somebody's face is clearly much too bright for everyone else in the photo, but they just Photoshopped it in. It looked almost something like that. Looking at the thing, it was almost like it was a reverse creature that looks like it's made out of a shadow. Like this thing was made out of light, but it had distinct features.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1136.554

It wasn't super amorphous. It had a distinct shape and it had fur. It looked in the shape of like a husky, if it were all white. It had the very wolf-like features with the long snout and the pointy ears. The bizarre effect of the light meant that I couldn't see detailed features very well. That was definitely enough to see the shoulders. I could see the head.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1163.143

I could see which direction it was looking. I couldn't see its eyes very well. I could not see a tail. That could have just been the way that it was sitting. It was totally still. I didn't see it move at all.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1312.136

It threw me off. I was on a bit of a march, you know, trying to get this unruly dog, and almost like it had interrupted me. You know, I stood there and stared at it, and I was trying to figure out, is this some coyote that I haven't seen before? You know, is this a wildlife that I haven't run into yet that doesn't seem...

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1334.355

Super likely, but then my second thought was, I still haven't seen or heard anything from my dog. It's actually quite quiet outside. I'm kind of protective of her, and I didn't want her to get hurt. She also has a bit of a habit of going after any wildlife she sees, so I was definitely worried that she might run after this thing. I kind of snap out of my stun,

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1361.736

and just in a bit of blind drive to protect my dog, I actually start approaching the thing. I start walking towards it because it's still in the area where my dog ran off to. It's like kind of the last direction I saw her run away to. So I keep going towards it and I get a little bit louder. and a little bit more of a frustrated tone. I'm calling out to my dog, you know, get back inside.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1388.573

I don't know where you are. I'm kind of pulling out all the stops to try and get her to come back to me. She knows the word inside, so I was saying that a lot. I'm moving, I'm still just walking. I didn't want to run, but I have a good march moving towards this thing. And I'm calling out to Olive, and I got maybe...

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1410.737

I probably moved another, yeah, like 30 feet, maybe 10, yeah, 10 yards closer to it while being louder and a little bit more noticeable than I was before. But I'm still keeping one eye on this thing. It's so strange and I'm so kind of confused. I don't want to leave the line of sight, especially since it's been facing me the entire time. It's looking right at me.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1435.212

So I'm looking right at the thing. I almost never break eye contact with it, really, despite all my yelling and marching. And that's about when the canine figure stood up, but not as a canine. It's almost like from the light, the figure of light that it was, it then stands up into the shape of a man. Man, it's weird.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1467.81

It's almost like the shape of the man was already inside of the dog, and then it stood out of it like a bug coming out of a cocoon. but it didn't leave much left over. I didn't see anything left behind. I also didn't really see, I didn't see limbs or features halfway through transition because it was so fast. It was very, very smooth. He was standing straight up.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1495.839

It was about six feet tall, maybe taller, medium build, maybe 190 pounds. Pretty thin, but like I'm a thin guy. He wasn't as thin as I am, but like not a lot of fat. It was lean. When it stood up into the shape of a man, it was still looking at me head on. It didn't change its orientation and it had its arms at its side. Very calm, very still.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1527.213

Just looking at me, it continued to have that weird glow, that weird iridescent aura, if you want to call it that, that shimmering almost look to it. But it no longer had fur. It had a smoother looking texture to it. Whereas before with the dog, the fur texture of it almost helped give it some definition. When it was a man, it was like totally smooth. The face was totally void of any features.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1559.947

I couldn't see a bridge of the nose. I couldn't see a brow. I couldn't even really see where the chin separated from the neck, you know, the kind of jawline. I couldn't really see that very easily. It was almost like a white silhouette. I couldn't see hair on top of its head, so it almost looked like it was bald.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1583.308

I couldn't see its body in too good of detail, so it might have had some sort of clothing on that was slim fitting or maybe it was just a naked naked man. When it changed shape, I immediately knew that I was dealing with. something of a category that I'd never dealt with before.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1603.952

I had never experienced any sort of cryptid or creature that came into my life, or I hadn't even really heard of anything like that in Western Washington. So I was a little bit scared. I think I felt also a bit of excitement, if I'm being honest. It was a little exciting to be like, what is this fantastic thing that's happening?

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1631.752

But also that tucked back into frustration with like, why is this happening while I'm trying to find my dog? You know, I felt almost like this would be a lot cooler if I could stick around and look at this thing, maybe try and get a photo or who knows, maybe even try and interact with it somehow. But I was so focused on getting my dog away from it and in my eyesight, I didn't want to.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1660.93

didn't want to mess with it too much. I have another moment of probably stunned awe as I watch this thing in the shape of a man. But the same cycle continues, I guess. I get even more worried and I start walking again towards it. I probably moved another, yeah, like 30 feet, maybe 10 yards closer to it while being louder and a little bit more

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1691.656

noticeable than I was before, I start turning a little bit to the right just because I think I had heard something by that point that I thought maybe my dog was off and to the right. But I only make it maybe three more steps towards this thing and towards the woods when It rotated itself slowly to what was my right. It rotates just turning slowly, and that's when it took off into the woods.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1730.592

It just ran away. But the way that it ran was so strange. It didn't look like it disturbed any vegetation whatsoever. It was completely silent. And it was super fast, clearly faster than any human speed that I've ever seen. And it was weird that it didn't seem impeded by the terrain.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1758.043

The woods out there, the ground is filled with sticks and potholes and, you know, little animal dugouts, all those sorts of things that happen in big fields. This thing was just like gliding above all that. As it ran away, it didn't make any noise. I didn't hear any branches snapping or even low-hanging branches from the trees. It didn't seem to hit or interact with anything as it ran.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1785.196

The frame of the man was moving at a comfortable pace, like a steady jog, but it zipped out of my field of view, going at least... 50, 60 miles per hour, somewhere in there. It looked like it was moving faster than it could carry itself with its arms and legs. It was like a poorly animated video game where the character was moving faster than it had been animated for.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1810.742

So it ran out of my field of vision to the right towards a property that my uncle owns. And it's a more heavily wooded area. So it looked like it was kind of running back into the woods or the forest, you know. But kind of got swallowed up by the trees and the foliage as it just went off. My immediate reaction after that was a bit of relief, but a little bit more fear because...

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1842.611

It was so unassuming beforehand. I didn't really get any, even though I was afraid before, I wasn't really feeling any immediate danger because it had been so unassuming, just watching me, staring at me. But when it ran away like that, I got a sense of almost respect. Like, oh, this thing is obviously very, very capable of things that I don't understand. I'd never seen anything move like that.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1878.714

I don't know. Just, yeah, unexplainable. What do you do in a moment like that? I was just standing there in my pajamas, just watching it run away, wondering where it was going. I wondered if it had maybe dipped out of being visible or if it had gone somewhere else. So that was a bit of a frightful moment, but it was pretty short-lived because my dog came back almost immediately afterwards.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1911.734

My dog came back to me surprisingly relaxed. She's a bit of an anxious dog sometimes, so I thought that she would have seen it I thought that she would have come back with her ears forward and her eyes ready to find something. But she came back with her tongue hanging out and her tail was up but relaxed. And she just seemed ready to go inside after that. She was slightly off to the right of me.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1941.283

So she was much closer to the thing than she was to me, actually. Almost like she had been hiding in the bushes right there. waiting for it to be over. I was very relieved to see her come back to me. I gave her a bunch of love and pets and stuff, and I just decided we ought to go inside right now.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1965.945

It sounds silly, but I've heard ghost stories and things like that before, and as long as you go inside quickly, it seems to work out. So I was determined to get her back inside. Yeah, then I was just kind of trying to digest what had just happened as I was walking back. I was feeling a little electric.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

1987.798

Like suddenly all of the nerves that I should have been experiencing up until that point finally came into my body and I was feeling real loose in the legs, real anxious to get back inside. Like, okay, that moment's over. I can think about it now, but let's get inside. Came inside. I think I left the lights on. because I was curious, but I think I went straight to bed.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

2013.203

The roller coaster of being terribly anxious about my dog and then the relief of getting her back to me and knowing that she was safe, climbing into bed with the dog that night felt pretty good. She and I went to bed pretty soundly after that. The next day, it was... I think it was bizarrely lonely. If I had to put a word to it.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

2039.902

I knew that when you have something like this happen to you, people aren't too quick to rush to believe you. People aren't usually that immediately accepting of telling them a story like this. I almost had trouble accepting that it happened to me. But of course, I had seen it with my own eyes. I couldn't deny it. So I don't think I told my parents immediately.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

2068.981

In fact, I don't think I told anybody that this had happened to me for several weeks. I don't think I was terrified of what they would say, but I just didn't really know how to bring it up. I didn't know what to say. Obviously, I was curious about what I had seen. So the first place to go would be someone else who's maybe seen that before in that area. I go to my uncle's.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

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And I'm a little bit timid. I'm a little not sure what to say, but I just come out and ask him, like, hey, have you seen a weird white dog or man shapeshifter in the woods? And he stared at me for a couple seconds before answering and just thought, no, have you? And I said, yeah, I don't know what it was, but I saw it out here and ran off into your neck of the woods.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

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He said, no, never seen anything like that. I was confused, I guess. I mean, about the same place where I was before. I wasn't expecting him to tell me that he had seen anything. But yeah, still looking for answers. When I finally got around to bringing this up with my parents, I think we were having dinner or something, and I had just brought up

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

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did I ever tell you my spooky story about what I saw in your backyard? And they said, no. So I gave them the rundown, and their immediate reaction was to ask me if I had been smoking weed that night, to ask me if I had been sober during it. They thought that maybe I saw an owl, like a big white barn owl that flew away, or maybe I saw...

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

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a really white coyote that stood up on its hind legs or something, you know? And I thought, well, that's nice of you to speculate. It was certainly, certainly much stranger than that. Thankfully, you know, I've, I've known them a long time and, um, this wasn't the first time that they had said something silly about weed.

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Episode 117: The Clearing

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So I didn't really let it get to me too much, but I guess I was a little bummed that they didn't seem to take it too seriously. I thought this is a really interesting thing that happened in your backyard. If this happened in mine, I'd be pretty curious to know about it. I genuinely hadn't smoked that night. I remember distinctly because I came back inside. I mean,

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Episode 117: The Clearing

2221.997

Not that I've ever experienced anything like that as a result of smoking, but I was not high that night. By the way, if you don't know, there's no amount of weed or type of weed that you could smoke that would make you see something like this. I've never heard a story of anyone experiencing anything like this with marijuana. So I left my parents with that, figured I'd let them stew with that.

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Episode 117: The Clearing

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But the way it's affected me since then... It's made me much more, I think, open to listening to people's stories, considering other perspectives or ways of how the world works. I've dissected this story several different ways to try and understand what may have happened to me. Was I visited by an extraterrestrial? Was this a cryptid, like a skinwalker?

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

2279.924

Or was this some like even religious entity? Was this a spirit? Was this an angel or a demon? What was this thing? So nowadays when I hear stories or fantastic things that happen to people, I'm much more likely to consider the possibility that it's something otherworldly, like that it's something not of this place, People have said some interesting things that I haven't connected.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

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Like a lot of people react to the fact that it probably saw my dog before me and its first shape. It appears as a canine. And then when I get closer to it, it changes into a man. It sounds strange, but I don't think that it was malevolent. It didn't really seem intimidating at or like it was out to harm me. And also the fact that it was so bright. I don't know.

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Episode 117: The Clearing

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I think that made me inclined to think like, maybe this thing's a good thing, but, but of course that's, that could be skin deep. You know, it could just be the way that it looks. I have kind of avoided trying to put a label on it because I, I feel like if I, if I try and think of it in too narrow of a margin that I'm going to,

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

2362.796

or I'm going to maybe like try and convince myself of something too specific. I don't want to put it in a box, but I think it was some sentient entity that's not from where we are. I visit my folks regularly these days and I bring my dogs. I have two now and they go out and they run around the same area that they were before. It definitely comes back into my mind

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

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mind when it's at night and I let them out. I have a bit of a closer eye on them when I let them out at night. But it's given me a bit of a sense of wonder almost for the woods. The spot that I'm in now is actually almost more secluded and you hear lots of noises. I've seen lots of wildlife and it just gives me a sense of like feeling small.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

2421.216

There's a lot of things out there that we don't know about, and I think that's really cool.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

269.42

My name's Zach. I'm a cannabis farmer in Olympia, Washington. I grew up here in Olympia, and I spent a lot of my time outdoors. I was a Boy Scout. I did a lot of hiking and backpacking, things like that, a lot of outdoorsy stuff. My job, I clock in and out. I've got a regular weekday schedule. A lot of people have I've learned to have very different wild views of what my work looks like.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

300.826

Some people ask me, like, am I walking around a cannabis orchard picking up the ripe fruits from the trees or some, you know, some like Garden of Eden idyllic style of growing. It's not quite like that because we harvest the whole plants. So sometimes it does take the form of almost like a factory setting, an assembly line setting where

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

325.253

There's a strict schedule and every 10 days a new room has to come down and then get repopulated. So it's a lot more work than people would think. There's a lot of steps and a lot of diligence. A lot of the job is, frankly, some annoying paperwork and like just double, triple checking that you've done everything correctly.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

347.263

You haven't left anything on or done anything outside of the norm because they're very particular plants. I grew up third generation Mormon, so all of my grandparents were Mormon and they had kids that were Mormon. I would go to church probably two or three times a week, every week growing up, like kindergarten through high school. I grew up here in Olympia.

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Episode 117: The Clearing

375.116

I would consider myself a Washingtonian, but I did move here when I was five. I was born in Provo, Utah, which is like, man, that's the spawn point of Mormons right there. It's a very demanding religion, I would say. There's a lot of rules. I wasn't allowed to go play out with my friends on Sundays unless we were doing something rather spiritual, which no kid in the summer wants to do.

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Episode 117: The Clearing

403.251

But I definitely had... a different view of a lot of things that I have now. You know, like cannabis, for instance, is an obvious one where I grew up being told that it was something really bad or negative. It could only be a negative, that it's ultimately just harmful to you.

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Episode 117: The Clearing

423.185

Or even worse, you know, it could be the influence of the devil or it could be some sort of very evil thing that controls your mind. I mean, people range the gambit there, but, you know, you hear lots of things My views started to change when I left home at 18 years old. I started to have doubts in high school.

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Episode 117: The Clearing

444.257

Things that I was being told at church or home didn't necessarily align with what I felt or what I observed outside of those areas. And getting away from home at 18, ironically, going back to Utah where I went to school. So it seems a little bit backwards.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

462.023

But then once I was there, I felt like a lot of the things that I grew up assuming or just taking for granted, I felt maybe I could be kinder to myself and consider alternatives to what I had felt. And that's when I really started peeling apart a lot of core foundational beliefs that I had coming from the Mormon church. and getting rid of them.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

486.279

So I had gotten to a point in college where I either needed to go into a lot of debt or find something else to do. And I cut my losses and I moved back to My folks ended up living with them just because I came back to Washington and needed a place to stay. I had found my first job growing cannabis, and I was just staying with them for a little bit while I found an apartment.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

515.484

I eventually did later that year. They probably reacted better than a lot of people would think. When I told a lot of my currently Mormon or also formerly Mormon friends, a lot of them threw their eyebrows up pretty high. a little worried about what my parents might do or think, but my parents were pretty good about it.

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Episode 117: The Clearing

537.632

They respected the fact that I was getting a regular decent paycheck from something that I enjoyed doing, so I think they had a pretty good perspective about it. My folks live in Olympia, Washington. It's It's a rural spot like outside of town. I think it's technically outside of the city limits. And it used to be actually a sheep ranch. So it was wide, big open areas.

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Episode 117: The Clearing

566.629

But like a lot of places in western Washington, the perimeter is like a wall of massive evergreen trees. Inside, kind of the middle of the property is more grassy fields. around their house and things like that. But then the perimeter is enormous, enormous trees. My uncle and my mom's brother lives pretty close, but not within eyesight. So they kind of are secluded.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

593.108

They have two separate kind of walls of trees that keep their area hidden from the other neighbors. So it's pretty secluded, but not totally in the middle of nowhere, not someplace that it'd be tough to find someone. It was definitely weird being at home with my folks. Just a clash of lifestyles, you could say.

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Episode 117: The Clearing

615.955

Of course, I understood being in somebody else's home, being a guest, even if it's my parents, I wanted to be respectful and not intrude too much. But my uncle was nice enough and a little bit understanding. He He said, I've got a barn out here. If you ever need to get away from the folks, just to get out of the house, you can go in there and crack open a beer or whatever.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

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Just go have some space to yourself. So sometimes I made it a nice little nighttime habit. I would go out of my folks' place, take the dog out with me. We'd walk around. So then I'd go out into this barn and It was a nice little bit of space. They have a horse ranch, my uncle. So there's several horse stalls. There aren't any horses in it at this time.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

666.114

It's mostly things like their feed or spare saddles, spare horseshoes, things like that. And the upper level is like literally just storage. So one night... I decided to do my night walk. I take my dog out and we go over to the barn. Her name's Olive. I'm walking pretty slowly, pretty relaxed. But the barn entrance is open. It's a really big sliding barn door that's been left open.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

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And I can hear this rustling up top. It immediately strikes me as odd because no one really ever goes up there. It's frankly so inconvenient to get to. It's been left alone. And I'm listening to this thing and clearly my dog can hear it because she's barking, kind of warning growls and warning little puffs of breath. So she's clearly spooked.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

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The noises that I was hearing sounded like a step-step slide, almost like somebody was dragging something, or like a creature that had an injured leg. It didn't sound like it was coming from a small, light creature. The sounds were from something that weighed at least 60, 70 pounds. You know, I'm standing relatively close to whatever the source of the noise is, And my dog can hear it.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

762.992

She's spooked. It could be some large animal. And my next thought after that was, if it's a creature, I don't really think I want to go face to face with that, especially in a compromised position like climbing up a ladder. My sense of, I guess, self-preservation outweighed my curiosity and decided that none of those things were worth investigating. And I turned right back around.

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Episode 117: The Clearing

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I went off into some other part of the woods on the other end of my folks' property away from my uncle's and just finished out my evening there. I asked my uncle the next day about these noises because I was very curious. I wanted to be respectful. I mean, it was still his space that I was using. I asked him, were you in the barn last night? Or do you know if somebody was in the barn last night?

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

819.586

And he said... No, I don't even think anyone was working on the ranch that day. He said there's no reason anyone or anything should have been up there. And he was a little concerned and confused. He just thought that's really weird and you should tell me if anything happens again. After asking my uncle about what had happened, everything was pretty quiet on the ranch for a while after that.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

847.413

Didn't see anything out of the ordinary. Everything was normal until a couple of months later. This was a pretty ordinary day. I'd gone through the evening. Nothing much had happened. I was beginning my ordinary nightly routine, and I was completely sober at the time, brushing my teeth, and I was going to take my dog outside to go to the bathroom.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

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Normally, I'd take her out the back door where there was just one little area of light. But outside of their house, it would just... It opens up into this big field surrounded by trees. There's a nice big, large window in the back door so I can see out there. And I don't see anything. Sometimes I'll check for animals before I let the dog out, you know. And... I opened the door.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

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She steps out pretty calmly, just like we always do. I think I stayed inside to watch her go outside. And she steps out the patio. I could kind of see in her body language, she was ready to bolt. She's an adventurous dog. She likes to sniff things and check things out. So it wasn't a surprise to me that she would run away. And she's a black dog, so she quickly disappears.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

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I found some shoes, quickly threw those on, ran out the back door myself. And I start, calmly at first, I start walking down this path, the same one that she went down. And I'm keeping my head on a swivel. I'm trying to see if I can just barely spot her in the dark, or maybe I can hear her footsteps. But no dice. I can't really see anything while I'm first going out there.

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Episode 117: The Clearing

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The light from the house didn't go very far. I wasn't super far from the house, but the light by now, I can't really see what I'm stepping on super well. I'm going off of my familiarity of the area, just following the path. I'm looking around, but I can't see much at all. I'm really trying to listen closely to see if I can hear something.

Otherworld

Episode 117: The Clearing

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But going farther and farther from the house always made me more nervous because I knew the farther that she got, the more likely she was to get into something. I remember walking and looking down to make sure I wasn't going to trip on something in the dark. And when I look up... I see something. It's what looked like the shape of a canine at first.

The Find Out Podcast

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100.347

And we don't have like, you know, we're just being ourselves. And I couldn't find anywhere in left wing media where that was like the point. It exists like people are being themselves, but there's nothing that was made to go like, hey, Let's just have an honest dialogue with no filter in it. That's a huge problem for the left and it needs to be solved.

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1156.555

Yeah, I was a Republican for almost all my 20s.

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117.804

And I think like we can't solve it on our own, but we can contribute to trying to start to solve it. So like my intent was let's get a bunch of very opinionated guys together and not hold back. And that's kind of what this is hopefully going to be.

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1185.497

yes i'm the dick cheney of the find out podcast for sure no i mean i like i have perspectives that go all across the place but i i think you know look the thing that i think is so simple for republicans is that their message is simple right and that's what makes it easy for them to coordinate all this stuff is that like they prey on people's inability to see a bigger picture and i think that's a lot of why all of us got so successful is we're able to simplify what is you know

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1210.476

already like an oversimplified narrative. We're able to simplify why they're wrong. And, you know, I think if the Harris campaign had done a better job of doing that, they probably would have won. But, you know, I think we have become successful because we tell an easy story. And that's exactly what the right does. And easy story is just inherently more entertaining.

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1227.9

And that's why the right is doing so well with this stuff.

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1367.491

That's all they are. That's all they are. All they do is complain. Like I watch any Trump speech. It's 90 percent complaining. It's like, how can this be the guy they like? All he does is bitch and moan. It's so like I watched his speech to the DOJ yesterday where he said that CNN and MSNBC are illegal.

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1384.995

And I spent 10 minutes just being like, how could anybody watch this and be like, yeah, I dig this guy. Like this guy is, he's stupid. Like it's, it's, he actually is like, it's hard to watch him talk, but people dig him. And I, it's still like, I think he's changed too, which is interesting. Cause like back in 2016, I would watch him and be like, he's funny.

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1404.919

Yeah. He was always stupid, but he was so like entertaining back then when he wasn't as old that it was like, You know, he masked it and now he's too old to mask it. He just comes off like, what are you talking about? You're not you're not interesting. You're not funny. You're just like angry now. And the angry version of Trump is just not it's it's it's so much worse.

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1482.37

is important they don't give a shit about policy though that's the thing like they don't they don't give a fuck about policy they care like it's all about the presentation of what trump is putting forward and they like the presentation of like this is wrong i'm gonna fix it the end like that's what they like they don't give a shit about the details at all because when you show it to them they're like that's not true yeah it is that's why we need a million more lukes right we do well that's a funny thing that chris was talking about like the rage thing

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1804.747

Yeah. And it's who you're aiming at. Right. Because like there is a group like Trump is successful because he activated a group of people that didn't ever vote and didn't give a shit about politics at all. And it was this like disaffected group of America that was just like politicians don't talk to me, so I don't care. And then Trump showed up and they went, oh, I like this guy.

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1821.71

So they have no context for liking anybody else or going in either direction anyway. So I feel like that group is just unreachable. Like I think they're going to they're going to live and die with Trump because Trump is the one who brought them to the party. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You can't. They're just in the rabbit hole and they're going to probably live and die in the rabbit hole.

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1859.34

But there's definitely a chunk of people in this country who are either misinformed and able to be informed correctly or just like not interested because of the vitriol, the whole thing. And it's like, OK, that's fine. But in the end, you're not participating results in things like Donald Trump being reelected. So maybe rethink that approach to things.

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1883.197

Right. That's that's it. Look, there's a lot of reasons people didn't vote. But that's one that I think, you know, is those people. Right. It's going to be a huge problem down the line. But then again, I don't think like I think a woman could easily win the presidency. I think that Kamala Harris was just faced with such a horrible set of circumstances being in that position.

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1900.349

Like Joe Biden really fucked us over. I mean, him just deciding to run again. Twenty three was like the death knell for this election. So I don't think you could have put anybody in front of Trump. And I think you would have bulldozed through him anyway, just because of the circumstances. So, like, I do think being a woman is a detriment running for president at this point.

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1915.601

But I don't think it's like a thing that can't be overcome. Even if you reran the election without Trump, I think a woman could win.

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2194.573

So, geez, man, that's a bummer. The what was I going to say? Oh, yeah. So the challenge, even going back to then Obama's first term. Obama had the possibility of just jamming the shit down everybody's throat and just doing exactly what he wanted, and he didn't do it.

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2210.127

And I think that's a segue into what we're going to talk about with the Democrats here is because Democrats don't have the teeth that Republicans have. Obama could have pushed all the way to Medicare for all if he wanted to. He didn't. I don't think he wanted to. But he had to meet very much in the middle, and that shellacked him. I mean, that's exactly – he just – he said, you know what?

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2229.816

I'm going to compromise. At this point, the one good thing Trump has done for the Democratic Party is letting them know compromise is not valuable. Attacking when you have the power is valuable, and that's something Democrats never learned. And now I think they finally are at least getting the picture of, like, we are not in a compromise position at this point.

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2246.809

We are in the position of once we get power back, when Trump inevitably fucks up the entire country and he can't win the midterm, it's going to be like...

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2254.455

there this is what you should have done the whole time although i have probably little faith in democrats so maybe it won't happen that way but i totally blame pelosi and schumer for all of the moderation of barack obama yeah i think you're right on that i i think you know they they have this sort of worrisome approach to everything and look sometimes it's valuable like well i think with the cr vote i think it was valuable in this moment but i think there's moments where you have all the tools to make substantial change and you go i'll compromise for the sake of just not getting yelled at like

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2284.369

That's kind of what they did.

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2423.729

Yeah, well, it's also like to me, just to end that, but I think it's a leadership style thing as well, right? Like the Trump is just kind of being like, I'm the dictator of the Republican Party. You're going to do exactly what I say. This is what we're doing. And not to say that I think Democrats should mirror that exactly.

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2437.677

But Obama had a position at that point in time where he could have been like, I don't give a shit what you think. You're voting this way or I'm going to fuck you over. And like that, I think as much as I don't love that approach all the time in these big moments, sack up and say that shit. It's enough.

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2450.303

Like Obama should have gone to all those senators who could get to that 60 and been like, I don't give a shit if you have reservations. I'm going to torch your ass if you don't go for this, because it's the most important thing we're going after right now. Shouldn't be doing it all the time like Trump does for like any little petty grievance. But for big shit, Democrats got to sack up.

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2564.082

They're buddies. I mean, they're like, he, he has like the Trump unlock tool. I don't know what the hell he's got, but, but he's, I think that's true.

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2573.211

He's the richest man in the world.

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2711.848

It was terrible. That I can agree on. I mean, I'm probably, maybe Chris will agree with me on this one too, but I'm one of the people who looked at this and said, I think it's actually a good idea to vote to keep the government open. I mean, so I look at it like this. I'll zoom out for a second.

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2724.225

The Republicans faced almost an identical scenario back in, I think it was December, whatever the hell it was, near the end of Joe Biden's term. Same thing. CR had to keep the government open, you know, had a bill in front of them they didn't like. And they, yeah, they negotiated a little better than Democrats did.

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2737.052

But in the end, they pretty much capitulated to the original bill and just signed it because Republicans are strategists. Democrats are not strategists. Democrats are policy wonks. That's the difference. Like Democrats get into the weeds. They understand how to functionally make the government work better than Republicans do. Republicans know how to win.

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2751.82

And the reason Republicans didn't use that moment to obstruct everything, it was it was a loser approach for them. It was going to make everybody pissed at them. So the same thing would have happened here. And I just don't like for me, I weigh the risks and the benefits. Right.

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2764.825

The risk of having the Democrats be the ones who shut down the government right now to obstruct obstruct Trump and have a protest vote. is that it hands Republicans an insane amount of ammunition to be like, Democrats fucked up the government. They shut it down.

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2778.391

Everything that's happening here, inflation, egg prices, it all can be tied back to Democrats because, you know, Trump will use that attack line. The federal workers firing element with Doge. Now it's like, hey, Democrats sent them all home. You're handing them a huge arsenal of negative shit to say. And what are you getting in return? A little fuck you to them.

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2796.379

Like I refer to one of my sub stack things is like Democrats want a bar fight right now. And a bar fight is no good for anybody because when you wake up in the morning, you got a bruised up face and you got a hangover. Nobody won. You had a nice little moment. Democrats have to understand the time to fight. I agree. The messaging of what they're going to do could have been way better.

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2813.345

And yeah, maybe they could have negotiated a little bit harder to try to, like, adjust a couple of things. But. There was nothing in this bill that was like, oh, my God, we can't possibly have this. Like Social Security is not getting cut. Medicare is not getting cut. There are bad things in there.

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2825.21

But these are the Republican agenda items that are going to be here, whether you shut down the government for a week or not. So it's just not a hell. There was nothing in it. There was like strategically this makes sense long term. It doesn't. It makes it just gives Republicans ammunition to keep going forward and attacking and attacking and attacking.

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2841.475

We need to let their shitty policies fall apart in front of us and go, look, this Look how shitty they are. And in 2026, we'll fucking roll them because they just can't stand up to the criticism of how badly they handled things. That is what Democrats need to aim on. I know a lot of Democrats hate that message because it feels weak and impatient and all this shit. It's the right strategy.

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2862.87

It's a question of consistency.

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3040.484

I don't disagree with you that Republicans hear what I have to say and they go, oh, cool, that sounds great. Because the difference now, I think, is that Republicans are being very short-sighted as opposed to the past where they were very long on what they're trying to do because they were in a position and they were behind Democrats in terms of where the country was going.

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3058.215

Now they feel like they've won everything and they've got the presidency, they got Congress, they got everything. So they're sitting back and just like kind of eating it up. And they're not thinking they're not realizing that all of these bad decisions are going to compound. And over time, it's going to fuck them really hard because they're making these policies that they can't.

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3086.559

But my pushback to that pushback is I don't see a path where Democrats aren't going to have a chance to take the power back. It just doesn't exist to me. I know that there are people out there who worry that Trump is going to fundamentally restructure government to the point where we can't even have elections. I don't think we're going to get anywhere near that territory.

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3103.845

Yes, are we going to give Trump an insane amount of power compared to past presidents? Sure. Sure. But to me, I look at that and go, I look at Trump's policies and what he wants to do. And I go, good. Let him prove how bad he is. We need to at this point because Democrats have been theoretical arguers forever.

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3145.903

That's how they're gonna pull it off because they're going to get more and more people to say screw it I'm not even gonna vote because I can't vote for a Democratic Party that won't fight but here's the thing though in the end the the the thing that drives voters are fundamental things that Trump is already fucking up like the economy and prices and he's making huge promises on all these things that he's not gonna be able to deliver on we know that and

The Find Out Podcast

Welcome to the Find Out Podcast

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So I understand in the short term, it feels like all the momentum is with them and they're getting people to disengage and go to the Republican Party or just not get involved. But when Trump's promises are not fulfilled in 2026 and 2028 and people are still worse off or just as bad off as when they were pissed off at Democrats, they lose. They the burden is on them to execute.

The Find Out Podcast

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And there is no way they're going to execute.

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I don't think it's more complicated than that. But that's my point, as I was trying to make before, is that Democrats have spent all this time warning Republicans. This is where it's going to go. This is what's going to happen. Nobody listens to the warnings anymore. You have to see it for your own eyes. Catastrophe is what really creates change in this country.

The Find Out Podcast

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Unfortunately, I don't want it to be that way. But that's the reality where we're at.

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I just want to clarify one thing on my point just before we get to the end there. Everything Rich just said, if Democrats had presented it that way, I would have been all about it. That's the thing. The Democratic approach to strategy is non-existent.

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Like if they had gone, hey, we're going to hold this government hostage until you agree to X, Y and Z and show the American people why those things matter. I'm all about it. But they're nowhere near that because there's no coordination. The leadership doesn't exist. That's the way they should have played. It's exactly what Republicans did in the last CR.

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They came out and said, OK, you went too far here. You went too far there. And they like scraped away at some of the things Democrats tried to push in there. But the bill was largely the same. But they at least fought back. But Democrats didn't present that. So if they had, I would have a different perspective. But I just don't trust their leadership to do anything like that.

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I agree with Zach again.

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I got a four-year-old girl. She just turned four last week. It's scary having her in Trump's America, but, you know. While we wake up. Yeah. In the end, I have to have an escape hatch just in case. So I ended up getting this guy just in case we needed it.

The Find Out Podcast

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Sure. I mean, I actually made a TikTok to sell these guys on doing this. And I think it's an important thing because the biggest issue that I have right now looking at just left-wing media, right-wing media, right-wing media is killing us. And they're killing us because of, at least in my mind, perceived authenticity, right?

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They are not authentic people, but they come off as saying what's on their mind, right? And I looked at podcasts and pretty much everything the left does in social media and went, nobody's doing this. Nobody's doing this at all. And then we have a larger group chat, but six of us are in a group chat where we kind of just shoot the shit and talk like real human beings.

The Find Out Podcast

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It's true. I mean, I think we've all gotten, I don't know if all of us have gotten death threats. We've all gotten at least like aggressively yelled at by complete strangers. I get that every single day. I don't know if you guys get it every day, but like every single day I get a DM where like, holy shit, this guy really hates me.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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Well, long story short, we just found the Ramsey Show here about a week ago. Wow. Congratulations and welcome. Trying to get out of debt.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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And as we were sitting down and going through getting our debt listed, smallest to biggest, to start the baby steps, I had found some debt that life's been hiding from me over and over again. Credit cards, mainly. How much? Well, we have one maxed out credit card for about $1,000. And the biggest disappointment is it's actually maxed out on McDonald's.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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Because it was connected to her app, and we had gotten rid of, paid this credit card off twice since June. Thought we had gotten rid of it. She told me she had closed it out.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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No, I didn't say that. It was just, she works really early in the morning.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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And just stopping and getting Beth's burritos and stuff at the easier to buy. Play on the app, skip the line, head to work, and it just got out of control.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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No, I was aware of the card, but I thought it was closed out, but she just says that out of habit, being that it was still connected, you know, there was that line of credit there. She has very big problem with spending. Um, and recently because of this, we have, we sat down, we talked and we have decided that I am going to take over the financial side with bills and stuff.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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Normally she paid hers. I paid mine and I am taking over. And then we've got a budget set where we put money in savings. We can start hitting all this. And really we've got without mortgage 16,000 now with, uh, with that credit card, with our joint credit card, some medical bills, and a 401k loan.

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Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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Combined income is about $1,900 biweekly. We each make about $44,000 a year. Okay.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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I'm a math and numbers guy.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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How can I go about this to include her, to help her... With taking over the finances, I want to be able to include her and hopefully maybe show her the numbers and the best way to go about it, taking on all the finances, but yet help her so she can eventually... Hopefully control money a lot better by yourself.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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Okay. Which means we have cut up all credit cards.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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Hers, yes. Mine, no. Not yet.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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Uh... Just haven't done it, I guess. It is definitely something I want to do. I want to get rid of it.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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Right now, the way I use my credit card, right or wrong, I mean, I have all my auto pays come off of it because, say, we're living paycheck to paycheck.

The Ramsey Show

Make Decisions Based on Guidelines, Not Headlines

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And my goal is to have money in the account... so that we don't have to do that. Gotcha.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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We were going to get about $15,000 in equity, and then my sister was also going to give a gift for a down payment as well to help us with that.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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We were going to be using an FHA loan, but it was going to be roughly $12,000 to $15,000.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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So, I'll cut to the chase. Monday, I lost my house in a house fire.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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For at least four months. Yeah.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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It was contained to one room, thankfully, but we had a lot of stuff in that room that the room is completely gone. They have to completely gut it and reconstruct it, I guess.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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No. The dog was inside, but thankfully they got him out.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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It was our downstairs master bedroom. Oh, no. We were actually supposed to sell the house four days prior. Well, four days after the fire had happened. Oh, my gosh. But that's not happening anymore. So thankfully, like a lot of my stuff was packed up and ready to go. But like my wife's entire wardrobe, everything like our bed, our newborn son's bed and everything is. Oh, my gosh.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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I was an hour away at work and my wife was at work.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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Yes. My stepdad was driving by when it started to smoke really bad, so he caught it.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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It was one of the outlets by our bed. They're not exactly sure, but they think maybe a wire came loose and like touched the insulation or something or a mouse chewed on it.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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So we were planning on selling the house because my wife bought it before me and her were ever together, and it is a nightmare of a house. Foundation issues and everything else.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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Yeah. So we were really wanting to get out of it. We were buying a new house closer to my parents, and it's a lot nicer house.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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Yeah, but we are doing a contingency buy. So we're probably going to lose that house now that we have to wait another four months. Um, we have just started the baby steps. We've got about $85,000 in consumer debt.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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Um, we don't have much savings, especially after the fire now. Um, and then what have you been doing?

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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Uh, right now we've got, I want to say, well, she actually made an extra car payment. So we're waiting for that to come back, but we'll have about 13 in our account, but we have bills and everything. And I do a ton of driving for work. So I have to leave at least five to 600 in there for gas.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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Yeah, they're going to cover it, but they are kind of dragging their feet.

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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Yes, I agree. I originally wanted to rent, but we live in a small town. And leaving the town is not an option for us because of my wife's work. And that's where our babysitting situation is located. And there is no...

The Ramsey Show

Surviving the Money Storm Starts with Tough Choices

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places to rent that wouldn't be the same amount as what our mortgage was going to be um that has the space for uh two kids us and a dog that allows dogs um there was one place that was available and we applied and we got denied because of our credit and then um And then it went off the market like a week later.

The Ramsey Show

Your Future Self Deserves Better Choices Today

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Doing good. My mom's played this show in the car since I was like eight, so it's ready to be a good place to go from here. I'm sorry. Well, it depends how old are you.

The Ramsey Show

Your Future Self Deserves Better Choices Today

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So what's up, dude? Yeah, so my wife and I recently started kind of our quote-unquote big boy and big girl jobs out of college. And her job comes with our housing being paid for for the next year and a half to two years. And so in March, we're projected to be done paying off our student loans. We've kind of been attacking those for the last...

The Ramsey Show

Your Future Self Deserves Better Choices Today

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nine months and so from march until whenever we move out of this place we're kind of just going to be raking in an income without a lot of expenses and so we were looking for ways to you know invest that smartly and save up for a home um but we're kind of new new to that whole realm so we're looking for some advice but you just told me you have a bunch of debt to pay off right

The Ramsey Show

Your Future Self Deserves Better Choices Today

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Actually, not a bunch. We've done a lot of work on that in the last year. We started with about $60,000 in debt when we both graduated, and we're down to $13,000 left.

The Ramsey Show

Your Future Self Deserves Better Choices Today

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We're expected to be done with that by mid-March.

The Ramsey Show

Your Future Self Deserves Better Choices Today

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We already have a fully funded emergency fund. We kind of did the baby steps earlier.

The Ramsey Show

Your Future Self Deserves Better Choices Today

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Well, I don't think it's more optimal. We're in an optimal position where we're going to be debt-free and we don't know if we should invest just the 15% that's part of Baby Step 3, or if we should increase that while we're not paying for where we live. Like, should we be investing 25%, 30% because we don't have any other expenses? Well, don't you want a home one day? Absolutely not. We do, yeah.

The Ramsey Show

Your Future Self Deserves Better Choices Today

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I would call it a Christmas miracle.

The Ramsey Show

Your Future Self Deserves Better Choices Today

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In the emergency fund, about $5,000.

The Ramsey Show

Your Future Self Deserves Better Choices Today

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So it's not enough to knock it out.

The Ramsey Show

Your Future Self Deserves Better Choices Today

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Yeah, pretty much every time we have some extra money, we knock it down.