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Zach

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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1017.262

And then the other thing is they just do not like the long-term fiscal picture of the US. One other chart we should bring up is interest on the national debt. What you can see here is that it has gone absolutely parabolic in the last couple of years. Our interest on the debt is something like 1.3, 1.4 trillion a year. 1.3, 5 trillion run rate. Yep.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1040.518

And it's something like 20 to 25% of federal revenue now is going to debt service. And this continues to increase. Now, I think there was an expectation that we'd be able to get this line to go back down once we had rate cuts, right?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1054.37

Because if inflation is licked and the Fed can lower interest rates again, and we can get back to a 2% 10-year bond, which is where we were a few years ago, then all of a sudden that national debt service becomes a little bit more reasonable, right? I mean, you could service that debt at half the cost. But now it looks like that may not happen.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1075.626

So just to wrap this up, I just think that the market doesn't like these fundamentals of the US fiscal picture. You've got rapidly increasing debt service costs. You've got an inflation picture that is murky and may not be going away. And the bond markets are starting to price in higher interest rates for longer. And this is why Paul Tudor Jones is saying all roads lead to inflation.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1100.354

And this is why Druckenmiller is shorting US treasuries.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

189.919

This is like when he stole the Pappy Van Winkle from my plane. Remember that?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1985.584

Yeah, look, I think that believing you're going to be an influencer is like believing that you're going to be like a rock star or movie actor or something like that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1996.057

It's like a one in a million shot. It's just not a great thing to want to design your career around because it's just very unlikely to happen. So I think you're better off finding a career that you're passionate about, but where you're actually adding value. The world doesn't need 50 something percent of the...

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2015.862

population become influencers that's kind of crazy it reminds me of a line from fight club where tyler durden says we've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires and movie gods and rock stars but we won't and we're slowly learning that fact and we're very very pissed off and that was gen x that was china yeah so yeah that was they're headed for a uh a fight club like realization about this sax how do you advise a young person on

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2058.287

So I think it's just important to recognize that if we ourselves are influencers, the reason why we're not being hypocritical is that none of us here, with the possible exception of J-Cal, ever set out to be influencers, right? Yeah. We did something different. We actually had a career and we did something interesting. And then as a result of that, maybe people want to listen to our pod.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

207.375

He thinks that anything that's not bolted down is basically just like a gift. It's like a freebie.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2079.623

The idea that you can just go be an influencer without having actually done anything interesting. What's your credential for that? So what I would advise is just people should go do something productive. And then if it leads to other people... wanting to hear from them, then that that's good.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2096.634

But setting out to be someone that other people should listen to without having any experience or having done anything productive in your life, it's like, why should we listen to you?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2276.291

Yeah, I think that's a great point. You kind of have to mentally burn the boats when you do a startup.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2386.624

Just on the question of how do you reposition? So first of all, the easy one to avoid is treasuries, right? I mean, do you really want to accept a 4.2% yield for 10 years to own a US bond? And with the looming inflation that is still out there, or the looming debt crisis that might be out there. So that's probably the easy one.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2408.55

I think the hard one is around equities because equities are at an all-time high. Part of the reason why they're at an all-time high is because the Fed telegraphed that we'd have big rate cuts this year. Remember, at the beginning of this year, they said there would be seven rate cuts. Those expectations have kept coming down.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2426.244

I think we had one, I guess we had a double rate cut last month and we were supposed to have one more 50-bit rate cut this year. I have to wonder if that's still going to happen. And more to the point, if you believe Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, we might be in for a extended period of higher interest rates for longer. And that will be bad for equities.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2448.348

Equities normally are inflation protected in the sense that those companies can just raise prices over time and keep up with inflation. And so equities are generally a pretty good thing to own in the face of inflation. But if we're in for a period of high interest rates longer than anyone thinks, that's going to be bad for equities.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2727.147

The big difference between a bond and a stock is that the bond provides you with, like you said, fixed income payments, and those would be horribly debased if you have high inflation. A stock gives you earnings and a company can always raise its prices. And so in theory, it should be hedged against inflation.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2744.597

But both a stock and a bond are similar in the sense that they're both hurt badly by rising interest rates, right? Because the discount rate is higher. So this is where I'm just not sure about equities is if we do head into a new regime of higher rates longer, does that... hurt equities, even though equities normally are pretty good inflation hedge. So I just don't know the answer to that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2768.569

I do think we're headed for a period of constraints. I think that since 2008, we basically were living in a sort of a consequence-free environment where The Fed could keep interest rates at or near zero. The federal government could spend as much as it wanted. We sort of normalized emergency conditions.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2790.478

First, we had trillion-dollar deficits as a result of the 2008 GFC, and then those got normalized. Then we had $2 trillion deficits as a result of COVID, and those got normalized. And then the Fed was also doing QE, which means that it's buying the U.S. government's own bonds, thereby propping up U.S. bonds and the bond market.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2815.171

yeah, keeping interest rates lower than they otherwise would need to be to attract those bondholders. So for about 15 years, we kind of normalized emergency conditions and consequence-free spending by the US government. I think now we may be entering an era of consequences.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2832.899

And what that means is that you can't push on one aspect of the federal government's balance sheet without giving up on something else. So in other words, if you're going to allow higher inflation, basically monetizing the debt, the bond markets are going to make the government pay higher interest rates on its debt, right? Because they're not dumb.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2851.278

So we're going to be in a world of higher interest rates, which means that equities get clobbered, real estate gets clobbered, the value of people's homes gets clobbered. So there's real consequences from that. Or you can tackle inflation, which means that the Fed's going to have to tighten the

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2867.552

But then I think what that means is the federal government's going to have to get religion around spending. They're not just going to be able to spend all of this money.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3172.702

To just go back to your definition of GDP, it's true that if you cut government, that might cut GDP because GDP includes government spending.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3181.229

However, one could argue that although technically that is how the definitions work, that by cutting government, you actually unlock resources that could be used by the private sector and that ultimately it would lead to more efficiency but also stimulate the private sector. And I think that argument is particularly true when you've got an economy running at full employment.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

320.046

Really excited, yeah. All right, so I have a question.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3204.183

So, you know, if we had lots of unemployment, then cutting all these government workers would be very painful. But if you've got an economy that's doing quite well and there's a lot of job creation going on, then it's a good time to actually cut government because the private sector can reabsorb these people.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3219.949

We should use the fact that we still have that, we have a good employment picture, to make these painful cuts now as opposed to waiting until it would be far more difficult.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

323.789

Is our attendance required at this thing?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3246.649

All the data is basically pointing one direction, which is a Trump victory. And by data, I mean the polling, I mean the prediction markets, and then the early voting numbers. So if you look at the polls, there were two new polls by mainstream media. One, the Wall Street Journal yesterday said that Trump was up three nationally.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3267.168

And I think CNBC had a poll this morning saying that Trump was up two nationally. That's very good because- That's the popular vote. That's the popular vote. So if Trump is winning the popular vote, it's a landslide.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

327.8

I have no desire to participate in this.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3279.015

Most prognosticators say that because Republicans have a slight electoral college advantage, that Harris would need to win the popular vote by more than 2% to have a chance at winning the electoral college. So if Trump is winning the popular vote, then it's a landslide.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3296.505

Second area is if you look at the state by state polling, Trump has been advancing pretty much in every battleground state for the last couple of weeks. If you use RCP, Trump is now ahead slightly in every battleground state and the momentum is all towards Trump. And then the final data point is around early voting in states where they have this early voting and put out the numbers.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3318.89

The Republicans are tracking well ahead of where they were in 2020. Now, there's still a question of You know, does this mean that Republicans are just shifting their votes to voting earlier and then they'll do less well on Election Day? There's always that chance. But right now, if you're a Republican, it's what you want to see.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3338.08

And if you're a Democrat, it's definitely not what you you want to see.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

336.685

I thought I was signing up for a podcast. I don't know why I need to do all these events.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3361.755

Sorry, I forgot to mention prediction markets. Prediction markets have moved very, very sharply in favor of Trump. It's almost two-thirds, one-third now. in favor of Trump. So there's been a huge move among bettors that Trump is going to win.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3375.18

Yeah, PolyMarket and then CalShe as well.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3590.231

I mean, look, I'm not going to try and possibly compare that to what the Democrats are saying right now, which is that Trump is literally Hitler. They're calling him a fascist. She called him a fascist.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3648.837

I think, unfortunately, the mainstream media is responsible for giving roughly half the country a psychosis about Trump because they are pushing out this rhetoric nonstop that he's a fascist, that he's Hitler. They keep putting out all these fake stories, and they are basically training people or indoctrinating them that he's a slight threat to democracy.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3667.223

I was having dinner last night with someone who's a Democrat who pretty much gets all their information from mainstream media, and she's terrified of this. It's just not who Donald Trump is. It's ridiculous hyperbole. But if you're locked in that media ecosystem, that's all you hear. You really are frightened by this.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3684.137

So I think that the media, the media's irresponsibility, the way that they don't report honestly and that they gin up these threats has really terrified half the country.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3699.647

Well, look, if you're losing your power of lying, I mean, that's like pretty par for the course. What's so horrible about that? I mean, you could make the argument that she's lied about a lot of things.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3708.114

As Anderson Cooper interrogated her quite well just yesterday on that town hall, he pointed out that she had said 50 times that Trump's wall was a stupid idea, and now she appears to be in favor of it. So I think that accusing your opponent of lying is pretty par for the course for a politician. What's not par for the course is saying that your opponent is literally Hitler and a fascist.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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For those of you listening. I'm happy seeing you guys through Zoom. You know, we can minimize the impersonal stuff.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3728.727

That's just going to a whole different level of rhetoric.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3740.613

Okay. I'm actually pretty optimistic because I actually don't think it's going to be that close. I mean, right now it's looking like Maybe landslide's too strong a word, but a solid victory for Trump. That's what the polls are showing. That's what the prediction markets are showing. That's what the early voting is showing.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3755.611

And if you look at all the other data points right now, it's showing Trump winning pretty handily. The other data point that we haven't talked about is just how these campaigns are acting in the final stretch. If you look at the Trump campaign, it's pretty much steady as she goes. You look at the Kamala campaign, and they're in this throwing spaghetti against the wall mode. They're back to

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3776.744

kind of the dark Brandon type messaging, where the reason to vote for us is Trump's a fascist. This is very different than their messaging when they made the switcheroo from Biden to Kamala, right? When they first made that switch, they said, okay, let's get away from this dark Brandon threat to democracy type messaging. It doesn't seem to be working.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3795.942

Let's emphasize Kamala Harris as a change agent, as a transformational candidate, as a candidate of joy and positive vibes. And they did get a big bounce in the polls because of that. The problem is that over the last couple of months, that sort of bounce in the polls has worn off as Harris has not been able to explain what she would change.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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She keeps getting asked in all these interviews, what would you do differently than Joe Biden? Anderson Cooper just asked her that yesterday for like the 19th time. And she still does not have an answer to that question. And so the problem she has is that the sort of veneer they gave her as this change agent has kind of worn off. And she's seen as a continuation of Biden.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3838.82

And the public does not want a continuation of Biden. And so now it feels like they're frantically trying to figure out how to reposition their back to the to the anti-Trump sort of hysterical messaging, which didn't work. It wasn't working three months ago when they made the switcheroo.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3855.385

So I tend to think that if you look at the behavior of these campaigns, it's pretty easy to see which one feels confident and which one is in a panic.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

400.441

I mean, that's possible. I'm going to tell him not to do anything that nice, though, for J-Cal.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4134.933

Just to add... You know, since Jake, how you're referencing an episode that I participated in and said some things. I mean, look, I think that the goal of the mainstream media has been to try and keep us in the heat of that moment for four years. I mean, if you've watched MSNBC for the last four years, it's like J6 is occurring every single day. I mean, this is all that they talk about.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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But I think, like Jamal said, we have learned a lot of things since that day. I didn't know, for example, that Twitter had censored President Trump's tweets telling all of these people to go home, that basically he said to protest peacefully. And then when they rioted, that he actually published tweets to try and tell them to go home. So that was new information.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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4178.97

And when that came out, remember at the beginning of the whole primary cycle, Trump did that town hall on CNN with Caitlin Collins, where he dramatically pulled the piece of paper out of his pocket with the tweets and started reading them. That was a lot of new information for people. And I think that gave him a different picture.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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And then I think one other point that I think is important is that imagine if the press had tried to keep us in the heat of the moment. of the summer of 2020 riots, the George Floyd riots, then we'd have a very different perception of which party was in favor of riots. Because Tim Walz was the governor of Minnesota when those riots occurred. He did not want to send in the National Guard.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Trump did. And then Kamala Harris tried to raise money for bail for an organization that was bailing out some of these protesters and rioters out of prison. So if the media was so inclined, they could portray Kamala Harris and Tim Walz as the party of the riots of the summer of 2020.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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I think at the end of the day that both those takes are propagandistic, and they happened four years ago, and it's certainly... a piece of information that voters can take into account, but it's only one piece of information. And there's a whole lot of other issues and policies in this election. And I think at this point, everything that happened four years ago is kind of priced into the stock.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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And what voters want to know about now is, What would you do on the issues? What would you do about immigration? What would you do about inflation? What would you do about the economy? And when you look at the polling on those issues that voters say matter to them, Trump has a decisive advantage. And Kamala Harris cannot explain what she would do differently than Joe Biden.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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Totally. That is throwing her under the bus. But it's also just preserving his own credibility because it's hard to look.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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I think I think in one important way, Kamala Harris has been set up to fail here because on the one hand, she wants to distance herself from Joe Biden's record. But on the other hand, she won't say what she would do differently. So she's in this kind of like never, never land this limbo. Yeah, that's right.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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They should have run a primary for sure. I think they could have had a better candidate. But also, I think to go back to Freeberg's question, this is a little bit of a premortem. What should they have done differently? I think you either defend Joe Biden's record or say what you would do differently. You can't be in this limbo state.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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And, you know, Joe Biden's got to be in the White House there gritting his teeth. wanting to get out on the campaign trail and defending his record. Because I think Joe Biden thinks he has a good record. And there are things you could say in favor of that record. I mean, I personally don't think it's great. But you could talk about the full employment picture.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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You could talk about the fact that, yes, we had 9% inflation, but now it's down to 3%. I mean, there are things you could say. Equity markets. Equity markets are at an all-time high. I mean, he signed a lot of legislation that he obviously believed in. So the Democrats do have a record to run on.

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It's not a record that I personally believe in, but it's certainly one that I think you could make an effort to defend. And I think Biden, if he was the candidate, would be defending that record.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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And it's very awkward to have a candidate who was part of this administration who will not defend that record, who distanced herself from that record, but won't really say with any detail or conviction what she would do differently. That is just a losing proposition. And I think Anderson Cooper exposed it more than Brett Baer last night because Anderson Cooper had the time.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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Brett Baer only had 26 minutes and Brett Baer was seen as adversarial, whereas Anderson Cooper is fundamentally a friendly interviewer. And when she can't answer those questions for Anderson Cooper, that's when you know you're done.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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444.138

I've never even heard of that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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4548.618

Well, it's hard to be up 20 points when the entire mainstream media is against you. There's only reporting positive things about the other candidates, only reporting negative things about you, and you have a three to one money disadvantage. One thing you could say for Kamala Harris is she has been a good fundraiser. There's plenty of billionaires who are funding her campaign.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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4566.59

They literally have three times more money than the Trump campaign. And even in California, which is a safe state for them, you're seeing Kamala campaign ads everywhere. That just tells you they're so flush with cash that they can afford to spread the money around even in California. So look, the reality is that Trump has the entire establishment against him.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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And I think for him to be ahead in the polls and the prediction markets and the early voting fairly decisively is an extraordinary achievement. I think he's probably the only candidate who could have done that. In any event, and I do think, J. Cal, that Kamala has tried to make some of the arguments that you just said, not very crisply, but she's trying to walk back on the border.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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The problem is they have no credibility on that because the Democrats for the last eight years have fought Trump on the border wall. It's his signature issue. And if you don't think Republicans should be believed on abortion, there's absolutely no reason to believe Democrats on the border. They fought Trump's wall.

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Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4626.025

I think that's bad parts of it all for scrap metal. She was supposed to be the border czar, didn't even visit the border, which shows that she never thought it was important. Now she wants to pretend that she's Trump on the border. Public's not buying it.

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4689.911

Well, they just waited way too late. I mean, there's no question that last month they radically pivoted their media strategy. She became the candidate roughly three months ago. For the first two months, they didn't let her do any press interviews. Then they realized that their internals were bad, they're behind in the polls. So now they're having her go out and do a lot of media.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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And like I said, a couple of weeks ago, that started to create a doom loop because she is not a great media performer. So her polls started getting even worse. So then they got to put her out on more media

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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I'll give you credit. If the Kamala campaign were a startup, we'd be saying it's in a death spiral right now.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

508.507

I'm a New York State guy. Well done.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

5621.336

I'm just not an expert on Starbucks. I mean, I do like their product, but...

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

5628.985

I just get an Americano with a splash of oat milk.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

5656.069

I'm going to find out in a couple of weeks. I'll let you know. Don't put that stuff in your body, David. I bet they do.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

5728.012

I'm living a great life right now. Next time. He's stealing anything that's not nailed down.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

59.632

Something simple is great. Is that the cashmere sweater with the rhino horn buttons?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

881.36

Well, I think as you heard right there, the key line that Paul Tudor Jones said was all roads lead to inflation. I mean, that's what's basically happening right now is that the market is afraid that inflation is not whipped and is going to resurface and the Fed may have to pivot from the pivot and raise interest rates. That's why he doesn't want to own any treasuries.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Separately, another financial legend, Stan Druckenmiller, gave an interview where he has something like a 20% short position, meaning 20% of his holdings are short US Treasuries right now. So he's betting that there are long-term inflation pressures and that rates are going to have to rise.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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And you're seeing, again, that since the Fed cut rates on September 18th by 50 basis points, that the 10-year T-bills yield has risen by 60 basis points. So I think my interpretation is that this is less about the election and more about the markets not liking the Fed's rate cut on September 18th. I think that in hindsight, it was too big.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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We discussed it on the show, and I pointed out that the 50 base point cut was contradictory in the sense that The only two times in recent history where the Fed began a rate cutting cycle with a 50 basis point cut was in 2001 and 2008, which were on the verge of pretty big recessions. And so the Fed felt like it needed to cut dramatically. in order to help stave off those recessions.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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But that was not Powell's rhetoric. What Powell said is the economy was doing very well. So what I said a month ago was if the economy is doing really well, why wouldn't you just tiptoe into the rate counting cycle with say a 25 base point cut and then see how the market absorbs it and get another month's inflation data.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Well, we've gotten another month of inflation data, and it's showing that these are not huge moves, but it's showing that inflation was a core CPI, which is a little bit higher than expected. So again, the market is concerned that inflation is not whipped, that the Fed may have been overly precipitous in how it cut rates.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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Where does cloud go? Cloud is in search or advertising. That's got to be figured out. I don't know the answer to that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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It certainly jolted me awake, Zach, so I'll tell you that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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You think six guys on a yacht did this?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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I'm doing all in. I'm doing all in.