Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
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Do we have Freeburg? Did he drop off? Oh, here he is. Okay. Freeburg's back. Okay.
Three, two. I just had to take a leak. I just, I go outside my office and then I come back. Oh, you like a nature pee? You're a nature pee guy? Me too. I love a great nature. Well, I have this great office at home, which is like a building outside of my house.
So I like to go in the garden and take a breath of fresh air and just, yeah.
You don't sit down to pee? No, I'm serious. I'm not joking around. You guys. So many jokes. I'm not going there. That's a soy estrogen boy joke. No, we can cut this out. But my pediatrician said, HMOP, I think it's really important to teach your boys to pee sitting down. And even for you as you get older. What are you talking about? It's good for the prostate. And there's like a materially different percentage in terms of prostate cancer rates when you pee sitting down. Because you expel all the pee that just kind of gets caught there. The dribble? Swear to God, bro. I swear to God. What about a good shake?
Wait, wait.
What about a shake? Nick, you can cut all of this. No, the shake doesn't do it.
No, this is great. Sitting while urinating aids in muscle relaxation, benefiting men with tight pelvic floor muscles, or symptoms of an enlarged prostate. Sitting to pee enhances stability, reduces the risk of falls, and minimizes messiness, especially for him.
Sacks has a urinal. Whenever Sacks gets a new home, he puts urinals in. That's how much of a man he is. Sacks, how does your staff hold your body while you pee?
Like, do they hold you?
History of the world, Mel Brooks.
This study is like the vasectomy truck at the DNC. I mean, it's meant to emasculate men. That's the only interpretation of it. It's total nonsense.
All right, Labor Department has revised down the job growth numbers as a number of members of this panel predicted. The BLS updated its non-farm payroll stats, downgrading actual job growth to around 30% versus what was originally reported. This means the U.S. economy created around 818,000 fewer jobs over the 12 months leading up to March 2024. The number was originally reported as 2.9 million new jobs created, and it's more like 2.1. The Labor Department updates and revises its stats frequently. It gives disclaimers. But this is the largest and most significant revision since 2009, after the Great Depression. recession. And so the biggest downgrade came in the field, not surprisingly, of professional and business services with 358,000 jobs lost over the last year. We see that in all the stats of different tech companies and businesses, finance companies doing layoffs. Other fields that revise their numbers, leisure, hospitality, manufacturing, retail, makes sense, and a little bit in transportation.
Here's a couple charts for you before we go and get some feedback. Civilian unemployment rate seasonally adjusted. As you can see, since the great financial crisis, we went from 10% all the way down to well below four, and that's where we sit today. USA Today chart here of gains and losses since 1980. Obviously, that massive drop you see there of minus 9.3 million jobs was COVID with the big quick rebound of 7.3. So overall, the country's in great shape. Sax, your thoughts on the revision? You obviously made note of this when we went through the numbers.
Well, yeah. I mean, I predicted this would happen, and I didn't know exactly how we would get the correction, but now it's come out. By the way, it's not just this 818,000 jobs. If you look at the last 12 months and add up all the restatements, it's been something like 1.2 million. I can share the chart on that. but this is quite remarkable. About a year ago, I tweeted really fairly casually that there was a hot jobs report. This was around June of 2023, that I didn't know where they're finding all these jobs. I mean, all I see is layoffs. That was my reaction based on not just what I was seeing in tech, and all of us, especially last year, were seeing nothing but layoffs in tech. It was also feedback from
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