Friedberg
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Your brain is not developed. You don't have any foundation. Yeah, and then some permanent solution for a temporary problem seems like a fine idea.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Which, let's be candid, watching the funniest thing that happened on planet Earth in the last hour is by definition going to be funnier or more entertaining than the three of us having a burger. That is a great way to put it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
That anticipation is really- It is the experience of taking a scoop of ice cream. And John, as a fellow East Coaster, I grew up in Brooklyn. I went to Fordham and spent my first 30 years in Manhattan and Brooklyn. What you're experiencing here is also the two most important things to Silicon Valley people, private aviation, and then the next greatest height, owning a sports team.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
So this is our version of sex and ripe fruit is private aviation and then owning the Knicks. The two things I'm working towards. We could sit here and talk about the dopamine release of this, but it is true that there is an end state to all of this. Private aviation and owning a BAT, apparently.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
You had to have a skill. You had to play guitar. You had to be a rock singer, et cetera. And I think kids have actually, I give kids a lot of credit. I think they put it together pretty wisely. They watched Kim Kardashian during this period of time we're talking about release a sex tape or... you know, whatever, participate in the releasing of a sex tape. I'm not sure exactly the details of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Get a bunch of likes, get a bunch of followers, get a private jet, get a TV show. And to their point, this does actually make sense. It is a sequence of events that other people have now done. They're not wrong. There is a clear path.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Thoughtful proposals in your book, in the latest book, The Anxious Generation. Two things struck me as absolute no-brainers. And you are currently in a war with people trying to, I think, maybe who got to these topics before you and maybe feel some ownership of them. And you've basically become...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
I don't know, the lightning rod for all of this discussion now, and people are coming to you as the expert, I get the sense some of these sociologists are a little upset that you've taken their shine. Putting it aside, because you do reference them and you give them a lot of credit in the book, the pouches at school and the phone lockers, maybe you could touch on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
And then what's the proper age for kids to get a phone? Those two things, to me, seem like the most pragmatic proposals in the book.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
All right, everybody, welcome back to the all in podcast. We're trying something new today. You all love when we do interviews. You love the great content that came out of the all in summit. But you also want to not miss an episode of the four of us talking about the news of the week. So today, we are doing our first episode of what we're calling the all in interview. What is the all in interview?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
What's the reaction been to this proposal? Amazing. It's not like, it's not like Matt is going to wake up someday and Zuckerberg is going to have this epiphany that he's done more damage to children than the tobacco.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
And in fairness, if the protesters were simply doing a sit-in, they've got a long history of people sitting in in the 60s and 70s protesting different things. It's virtuous. It's this sort of tipping over into intimidation when five or six people surround a student or chase them into a library or bang on the doors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
I mean, if you were to just, I always use my friend Sam Harris's technique, which is Just replace, you know, go through each, you know, person on the victim Olympics and the identity politics bingo card.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
And just replace it. OK, now white students are chasing black students. Black students are chasing Hispanic students. Hispanic students are chasing Japanese students. Lesbians are chasing hetero people, whatever it is. Pick your from the bingo card and then just see if this stands up. And if it had been black students being surrounded by white students, people would be like, what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
because cancel culture has ended essentially. And like the left took it too far and the right took it too far. Is that what's happening?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
You've obviously never dealt with Plinonium, very racist element.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Plinonium, very racist element.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
I think that was another epic discussion. People love the interviews. I could hear him talk for hours. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Yeah, I've leaned into that. My kids love the fact that I told them my dad would kick us out of the house in the morning in the summer and we could come back on when the streetlights came on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
And then I just... Had them leave the house. And I told them I'm locking the doors for three hours. Go have fun outside. And then sometimes when we're in town, I'll have them walk around town. I'll give them the 20 bucks. I'll say, you're going to meet me at the Apple store at this time. You can meet another time. You can go ask them. But we're going to meet at the Apple store in two hours.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
anything goes wrong just go into any store and talk to an adult boom and i'm just giving them those kind of like free range things yes that's beautiful and do they see this as punishment or are they excited they enjoy it they love it of course they love it of course they ran around the house found one of the doors open and said you forgot to lock this one lock it great they said what if we have to go to the bathroom or we need a drink of water i said there's the hose and there's a tray
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Yeah, excellent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
They think it's hilarious and they love it. And then the other thing I do as a tip is I, you know, if they want to do screen time, I tell them, great, come up with a creative project. And one hour of creative project, you can do one hour of TV or one hour of iPad or something. So I just do one for one with them. They have to earn it by doing something creative.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
And they're like, we don't know what to do. And I'm like, figure it out. And then boredom, I explain to them, equals creativity. You have to be bored, your mind clears, and then you come up with a great creative idea. Now they're writing movies, they're writing stories, they're making books, they're writing songs. Like they literally will complain.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
It's like you mentioned Skinner, when you extinguish a behavior, like an addiction to devices, the bad behavior spikes. They scream, they cry, and then boom, it drops down to zero. And you're fine. You just have to weather that like brief storm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
This is what kids want, by the way. Kids want to have a childhood. You asked them, you polled the students and they told you, we don't want to be addicted to the stuff. That's like, if you were to ask Philip Seymour Hoffman, you want to be addicted to heroin? Did you wish heroin was never existed? He'd be like, yeah, I'm dead. Of course I wish heroin didn't exist.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
This thing's ruined my life. That was a poll. They know they're on heroin. What'd you say, Rupert? That was a poll. I'm thinking about New York and just, I mean, I used to work out in the same gym as in Chelsea Piers. And every time I see Philip Seymour Hoffman in like the master or long came Polly, I just think this is what we're doing to our kids.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
They get addicted to these things and then fentanyl and like- Talented Mr. Ripley, wasn't he? Just so many great artists gone. And I think that's what's happening to these kids' brains. I think their brains are being melted in all their creativity, their ability to learn an instrument, to interact with each other. We're stealing their childhoods and replacing them with Zuckerberg's payday.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
I mean, it is, you may not like to say you're an NYU professor. It makes these kids really weird. I watch these kids who are addicted to TikTok and addicted to video games. They get really socially weird. They can't make eye contact. They can't have a conversation. And then they become young adults. They don't know how to go on a date. They don't know how to talk to adults.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
I mean, they don't know how to work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
no i think it's the boys mainly the girls seem to be a different subset of behaviors which is like um uh maybe more social pressure and more depression more eating disorders self-harm all that collection where maybe it's directed in some way of harming yourself, which is really tragic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
They're terrible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Yeah, you just hire people in Canada or the Philippines.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
And to bring this from a graduate school class and the 40,000 foot view you guys are talking about and bring it down to the reality of today, maybe 20 years ago, 25 years ago, a lot of folks were building mobile social applications and they figured out, hey, games, gamification, levels, being in martial arts, going from white belt to yellow belt, scoring, becoming in Dungeons and Dragons,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
The majority do not have the wherewithal, the resiliency, the confidence, the communication skills to operate in a business environment. Period, full stop.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Yeah, no, people do hire based on that. They always did in sales, like the sales department, you wanted military people want to discipline because it's a numbers game, you have to just grind it out. But I do think like, even for what people don't realize is, when everybody went home for COVID.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
managers learned how to manage remote workers once they figured out I can manage a remote worker dealing with somebody who has too much anxiety to come to work today or be in a meeting and told they did a job and like you need to buck up and do a better job like people will quit on the spot People will start crying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
People will drop off the Zoom because there's too much anxiety to be told you did a bad job. Now you tell that to somebody who's working in India or South America or Portugal or Manila, hey, this is not the standard at which we operate. They're like, can you tell me how to do better? Is there is let me go look online, I'll go find some way to do my job better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Thank you for letting me know that I could do better on my job. This generation can't handle even the modest amount of I shouldn't say all of them, but a large percentage of them have so much anxiety, they cannot operate in the workplace.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
I do think some number will rise to the occasion. I think it's really good advice. The other advice, I'll just tell you what people do practically in the real world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
hire three people, expect that one's going to be fired in the first six weeks because they present well in an interview, but they're going to have a panic attack or they're just going to be, don't have the work ethic to be successful in an intense field like venture capital or a venture-backed startup.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
19th level wizard or whatever, this becomes highly addicting. And they built it into these products. And then once they built into the products, we then passed another Rubicon, which was, hey, let's just hand this to machine learning or AI, and have them do the gamification without it being explicit. And that's really tick tock. So you had the gamification of Twitter and Facebook, which was likes,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
So, and then one will leave because they've got rich parents and they don't need to have the stress of the job or whatever. And then whoever's left, That's the winner. And so that's how people are approaching this now, is hiring people on project basis. Let's see them do the work. Let's see if they can maintain the intensity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
And that's really is like, if you weren't allowed, if you were monitored and helicopter parented, and you didn't go to the store on your own, and you didn't get lost, and you didn't have somebody steal your money, or you didn't get in a fight in the schoolyard, or you didn't play tag and You know, didn't get picked for dodgeball. You got smashed in dodgeball and they bullied you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
If you didn't have all those experiences that are formative, yeah, you're not going to survive in the corporate world. There's no time. There's no time to teach you how to, you know, get smashed in the face, you know, with a dodgeball. You know, that should have happened in 12 years old. It's going to be tough for them. I think you're doing God's work trying to get them back on track.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Yeah, I'd like to see your project work. You know, I see at NYU or Florida, I see any Ivy League school degree or something like that. You're going to think, oh my God, this person's going to come here and start a union, a movement. You know, they're going to distract everybody. This is why Coinbase and other folks are just saying, we're here for this purpose.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
If you're here, you're here for this mission and this purpose. Anything else you want to do on your own time, this is your business, but.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Now it's the standard. Hey, you're here. The random group, there's like a random channel on Slack that is like one of the default channels. That's where chaos occurs. The first thing you gotta do is delete the random channel. There's no random here. We're here to work. There's no side hustle, random, your politics, whatever indigenous group, whatever group that you care most about.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Yeah, that's called the weekend group. We had a word for that in Gen X. That's your weekend. At five o'clock on Friday, you could start thinking about that. The rest of the week, you're focused. Anyway, I'm old school. Gen X, I'm old school now. It's so great to have you on here. The books, Coddling of the American Mind, Anxious Generation, and the first two. Buy all four, everybody.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
That's the message you should get here. Stop what you're doing. Get the audio book. Books are the greatest deal in the world. $10, $15, you get a ton of knowledge. And hopefully this podcast inspires you, whether you're a parent, educator, or a young person, to just understand what's going on here. John, you're a great guest.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
I have been all over that website. Lots of great ideas there, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Well, it's two of us interviewing one guest as opposed to 4v1, which is quite unfair sometimes and a little bit unruly. And so we're planning on doing these as an experiment, maybe 10 times a year. Since we know you love interviews, and today we are really excited because we have Jonathan Haidt with us. He is a fearless author of some really amazing books. Freeberg, you have read all four of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
Fantastic. Let your kids grow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
And let us know what you think of the all-in interview, everybody who's a fan. John, you were amazing, great guest. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
retweets, follower count, Instagram, and then now it's transitioned into something even more pernicious, which is some black box on in Tiktok knows, this is going to maximize the dopamine hit. So this is kind of gone. This is an experiment that's gone awry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
And what you're speaking to is the velocity here, I think, as well, huh, Freeberg? And the velocity of the change is just, I think your TV analogy is really interesting because we're both, I think we're all three of us Gen Xers here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
And I think, Freeberg, you're the tail end of Gen X. We would certainly take in the Gen X draft. When you look at this, The TV analogy is so good because we did have a moment in time where TV got faster and was gamified. It was called MTV. And they were like, hey, let's make this a lot faster. You're right. Now you're just going to watch three minutes. It's called a music video.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
So we're taking your 30 minutes down to three. And then in that video, the directors of music videos became the directors of movies and TV shows later, that's where they cut their teeth on little $50,000 projects. But because they had to do so many cuts in those projects,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
to tell the story in three minutes or four minutes of a Michael Jackson video, that made its way into things like the Sopranos, which had a much greater density of characters or Game of Thrones today. And then that's given way now to whatever the hell is going on on TikTok to our brains. So I'm curious what you think that final jump, the TikTok jump is doing to kids' brains.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
I have read two of them. So why don't you give us your take on these four books, Dave, and then we'll kick it off to John.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
And the prolonged dopamine release, this is not good for your brain. It's one thing to find a ripe pear or a mate and have sex and have this dopamine release. It's like, okay, yeah, let's find some more ripe pears, eat a couple more until we're full. There's kind of a system that gets shut off naturally in nature. And with sex, like, okay, yeah, we've had this orgasmic release.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
We don't need to do it again for some period of time. And not to get too graphic here about pears and ripe pears, but... You know, when you're doing TikTok, there is an addiction here that to Skinner, to your Skinner point, variable interval and it's variable reward. Something could be the Hawk to a girl and everybody in the world is like, oh, my God, sex. And, you know, she's spicy or whatever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
But then there's another person on the other side of that and a society that So you have the dopamine, you know, very primal thing happening, but then you also have this next layer you're talking about socially, which is now what happens to that girl? What happens to her family? Is she gonna kill herself? Is she going to become a reality TV star? I don't know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jonathan Haidt | The All-In Interview
I mean, we're in uncharted territory. No human in evolution did not anticipate a billion people, a million people understanding one person's or digesting one person's most candid, worst, embarrassing or thrilling moment, did it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
How much... A lot of this, if you design it in one way, has to go through Congress, which as we know is sclerotic and basically nothing can happen. And then the other path is for you guys to go ham a little bit and say, okay, what can we do with executive order? Have you had a chance to discuss, if you win, repositioning the focus as basically that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
What is the totality of everything that we can do from the White House, from the Oval, and then getting all of these... And the other thing that we should talk about at some point is it's like an Avengers movie now at this point. You, Bobby Kennedy, Elon, Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
But the point is, have you had that discussion about, all right, folks, let's not wait for Congress and get a plan ready starting day one of all the stuff that can happen through EOs? Or how are you thinking about this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Why do you think that is, J.D.?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
I have a follow-up question on that, JD, which is you were a venture capitalist for a period, and Lena Kahn has essentially taken M&A off the table. You well know that. We can't get those singles and doubles in the industry. It kind of freezes the industry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And we have a problem with returns, which then is creating a secondary order problem where we can't get LPs to put more money into funds because we're not getting those returns. What's the proper way to look at M&A? Because you want to break up big tech, from what I understand, and you have a major problem with big tech. You mentioned little tech. What's the proper M&A architecture to break
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
balance those two goals there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
I think a good place for us to pivot would be the border. And just talking about this issue, more from first principles. When President Trump came on the podcast, we talked about, hey, maybe really talented people, we should recruit them to our country and give them green cards. But very quickly, your group walked that back a bit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
It's such a political hot potato, and it doesn't seem to me that it needs to be, but you've spent a lot of time in government now. Why can't politicians just do what 80% of the country wants, which is allow very talented people into the country, close the border and make it like a more point-based system like Canada, Australia and everybody else.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Like, why is this so weaponized by both of your parties?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And I'll add another one, guilt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
This speaker is not on the program, not on the program, but I did notice there was a little bit of security here today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
I just have one final on this topic, which is your plan is to deport tens of millions of these people. Tell us how that will happen practically. How are you going to take a million of people, put them in cuffs, drag them out while people have their cell phones out recording this? Or is that just Trump being Trump?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
In fairness, J.D. told me, J.D. told me, ask the hard questions, please. I want to address them head on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
You will face the hard questions. So back to the question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Let me ask a national security question. There's a lot of videos. Elon's gone down there. Bobby Kennedy's gone down there. You've gone down there. Sure. And the interdictions are not necessarily coming from countries in Central and South America anymore. They're coming from places near around near Asia and a lot of places that you wouldn't normally think people coming from, Middle East, et cetera.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
From a national security perspective, what do we think is happening? Why is that happening?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Maybe final question, but you said something which I thought was incredibly well said, so I just want to repeat it. When U.S. growth is 1% and 2%, everybody's fighting. Exactly. But when U.S. growth is 4% to 5%, everybody prospers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Can you walk us through just how you think about how we get that extra 200 or 300 basis points of growth and where you need to have less regulation so that you can have more entrepreneurship or more regulation to kind of constrain folks?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Sacks, final question for you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And Biden before that, but he forgot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And I just want to say, JD, I think your answers were fantastic here today. And I really do appreciate you coming on and answering these questions very thoughtfully. And, you know, from my perspective, when I heard that you were announced as the VP, I thought, well, this is great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
A young person who's got a lot of experience in venture capital and building things in the world and somebody who comes from humble beginnings like the four of us and believes that a meritocracy where people work hard and get reward for it. So you check all my boxes in that way. And I really think I feel much better. I have my issues with your boss.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
But when you talk about the bite-sized steps to it, I think one framework to look at your relationship with Trump is he says things at the top of the highest vibration. We're going to deport 20 million people. And then you have a very practical approach. 60% tariffs makes no sense, but hey, we've got to rebalance this. And so I really do like your measured approach to this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And I think that you're a great counterbalance. And I think we understand why he picked you. I want to say one thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Thanks. And this is not really related to anything except that you are not supposed to be here. That's exactly right. Yeah. And that is really inspiring to other people who are not supposed to be here. Thank you. Well, I appreciate that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And if you haven't read JD's book, I read your book long before all of this. And I just want to say your book was so inspiring. And I have recommended it long before today to literally hundreds of people. It's a fantastic read if you haven't read it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
A little red meat for Saks. Please welcome me in joining vice presidential candidate, Janie Vance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Let me start by going back a little bit. I think three of us. initially would have been described sort of like, you know, non-Trump people. And in different ways and shapes and form, we were all vocal about it because of what was presented to us through the filter of the media. And we've all gone through an evolution in large part by meeting the person.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And this is the first time actually where a presidential candidate I've known, and I've kind of known a vice-presidential candidate in this case as well, get, you know, they try to corner you and paint you in a certain way. Can you just talk about what you realized and the person that you got to know and what it says about what we need to do so that we don't get manipulated?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Rain man, David Saks. Love you, man. Nice. Hey, guys. Jorge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Let's flip it around now. What does it say about him that he... I mean, how is that process of saying, J.D., you said this. Yes, I did. I changed my mind. But then he has to change his mind. So that says something. So talk to us about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
That's awesome. Thanks for coming. Of course. You're going to replace Mike Pence. I hope so. Yeah. It's going to be a close election. But if you do, Mike Pence, your new boss, Trump, is a little upset at Mike Pence because Mike Pence refused to overturn the election results. And if you were in that same position, what would you do? Would you have overturned the election results?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
So would you have certified it? I'll ask you for the third point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
You wouldn't have certified it, to be clear.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Let me continue my line of questioning, and then I'll give it to you. Because I want to hear J.D. 's, since he's here. I've heard yours many times. How many follow-ups are you going to have about January 6th?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And normally he's beside his wife, Usha, but now you get.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Can we talk about SpaceX? You have a bunch of critical milestones coming up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And what comes after that? Let's assume that's successful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And that's for you. Yeah, it's way too crazy. Elon, what do you think is going on that led to Boeing building the Starliner the way that they did? They were able to get it up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Can't finish. I don't understand. And now you're going to have to go up and finish. Um...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
You guys just turned on Colossus, which is like the largest private compute cluster, I guess, of GPUs anywhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
which sort of speaks to what David said and kind of what Peter said, which is a lot of the kind of economic value so far of AI has entirely gone to NVIDIA. But there are people with alternatives and you're actually one with an alternative. Now you have a very specific case because Dojo is really about images and large images, huge video.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
You guys, in the design, there was a technical paper and there was a deck that somebody on your team from Tesla published, and it was stunning to me. You designed your own transport control, like, layer over Ethernet. You were like, ah, Ethernet's not good enough for us. You have this TT COE or something, and you're like, oh, we're just going to reinvent Ethernet and, like, string these chips.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
It's pretty incredible stuff that's happening over there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
But is there a world where, for example, other people over time that need, you know, some sort of like video use case or image use case could theoretically, you know, you'd say, oh, why not? You know, I have some extra cycles over here. So it should kind of make you a competitor of NVIDIA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And you think it's one generalized robot that then learns how to do different tasks? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
We're a meatbot, a generalized meatbot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And presumably, I think it was written that X and Tesla may work together and, you know, provide services. But my immediate thought went to, oh, if you just provide a grok to the robot, then the robot has a personality and can process voice and video and images and all of that stuff. As we wrap here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
It's like a rule, but can't you guys just say it? Just say the stuff that got on the cut.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
There were a couple of funny ones, yeah, that they didn't let us do. You can say it so that he doesn't get it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
They're stealing stuff. So we had JD Vance here this morning. He did a great job. And one of the things is there's this image on X of basically you, Bobby, Trump and JD are like the Avengers, I guess. And then there's another meme where you're in front of a desk where it says D-O-G-E. The Department of Governmental Efficiency.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Tell us about the seat for efficiency. How do you do it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Where do you think the regulation helps? Like for the people that will say, we need some checks and balances, we can't have some, because for every good actor like you, there'll be a bad actor. So where is that line then?
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John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
John and Jeff, but let's start with John. Can you actually define for us, for me, I don't understand when people say deep state, what it is. I almost viewed the term comically. We have one of our friends in our group chat who we call deep state, who's Deep state? He's really in the deep state. But we say it as a joke. But for maybe the uninitiated, what does it actually mean?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
What are their incentives? Who are they? Jeff, maybe you want to start or John, you want to start?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
And what are their incentives? Is it war? Is it self-enrichment? Is it power? Is it all three?
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We're seeing it in real time. In 80-90, what I'll tell you is what Sacks said is totally right. There's so many companies that have very complicated processes that are a combination of well-trained and well-meaning people and bad software. And what I mean by bad software is that
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Some other third party came in, listened to what your business process was, and then wrote this clunky deterministic code, usually on top of some system of record, charged you tens or hundreds of millions of dollars for it, and then left and will support it only if you keep paying them millions of dollars a year.
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That whole thing is so nuts because the ability for people to do work, I think, has been very much constrained. And it's constrained by people trying to do the right thing using really, really terrible software. And all of that will go away. The radical idea that I would put out there is I think that systems of record no longer exist because they don't need to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the reason is because all you have is data and you have a pipeline of information. Can you level set and just explain to people what system of record is? So inside of a company, you'll have a handful of systems that people would say are the single source of truth. They're the things that are used for reporting compliance. An example would be for your general ledger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So to record your revenues, you'd use NetSuite or you'd use Oracle GL or you'd use Workday Financials. then you'd have a different system of record for all of your revenue generating activities. So who are all of the people you sell to? How are sales going? What is the pipeline? So there's companies like Salesforce or HubSpot, SugarCRM.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Jason, are you okay?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Then there's a system of record for all the employees that work for you, all the benefits they have, what is their salary? This is HRIS. So the point is that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The software economy over the last 20 years, and this is trillions of dollars of market cap and hundreds of billions of revenue, have been built on this premise that we will create the system of record, you will build apps on top of the system of record, and the knowledge workers will come in and that's how they will get work done. And I think that Sachs is right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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This totally flips that on its head. Instead, what will happen is people will provision an agent and roughly direct what they want the outcome to be. And they'll be process independent. They won't care how they do it. They just want the answer. So I think two things happen. The obvious thing that happens in that world is systems of record lose a grip
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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on the vault that they had in terms of the data that runs a company. You don't necessarily need it in the same reliance and primacy that you did five and 10 years ago. That'll have an impact to the software economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the second thing that I think is even more important than that is that then the atomic size of companies changes because each company will get much more leverage from using software and few people versus lots of people with a few pieces of software. And so that inversion, I think, creates tremendous potential for operating leverage.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, what I'm saying is, has the money been wired and the docs been signed?
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How is that different from how this clunky software is sold today? I mean, look, I don't want to take away from the quality of the company that Mark has built and what he's done for the cloud economy. So let's just put that aside. But I wish this is what we could have actually all been on stage and talked about. I told him that. When he was at the summit? I said that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Because I disagree with basically every premise of those three things. Number one, systems integrators exist today to build apps on top of these things. Why do you think you have companies like Viva? How can a $20 billion plus company get built on top of Salesforce? It's because it doesn't do what it's meant to do. That's why.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The point I'm trying to make is that's no different than the economy that exists today. It's just going to transform to different groups of people, number one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Let's talk about it next year at the summit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Love you, Mark. Who's coming to Dreamforce? Raise your hand. I want to make another point. The second point is that when you have agents, I think that we are overestimating what a system of record is. David, what you talked about is actually just an encrypted file, or it's a bunch of rows in some database, or it's in some data lake somewhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You don't need to spend tens or hundreds of millions of dollars to wrap your revenue in something that says it's a system of record. You don't need that actually. You can just pipe that stuff directly from Stripe into Snowflake and you can just transform it and do what you will with it and then report it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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through steak dinners and golf outings and all this stuff, we've sold CIOs this idea that you need to wrap it in something called a system of record. And all I'm saying is when you confront the total cost of that versus what the alternative that is clearly going to happen in the next five or 10 years, irrespective of whether any of us build it or not, It'll be deflationary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You just won't be able to justify it because it's going to cost a fraction of the price.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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There are open source agentic frameworks that already do Freeburg what you're saying. So it's not true that it's not been done. It's already been done. Yeah, sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It hasn't been fully implemented to replace the system of record. There are companies, I'll give you an example of one, like Mechanical Orchard. They'll go into the most gnarliest of environments. And what they will do is they will launch these agents that observe, it's sort of what I told you guys before, the IO stream of these apps and then reconstruct everything in the middle automatically.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I don't understand why we think that there's a world where customer quality and NPS would not go sky high for a company that has some old legacy Fortran system, and now they can just pay Mechanical Orchard a few million bucks and they'll just replace it in a matter of months. It's going to happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You nailed it a year ago when you were like, Oh, you mentioned some company that had like flat pricing at first, by the way, when you said that, I thought this is nuts, but you're right. It actually makes a ton of sense because if you have a fixed group of people who can use this tooling to basically effectively be as productive as a company that's 10 times as big as you,
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You can afford to flat price your software because you can just work backwards from what margin structure you want, and it's still meaningfully cheaper than any other alternative.
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Except when the renewal comes. What happens when you have to spend a billion dollars on something? And then you're going to renegotiate. Are you going to spend a billion dollars again five years from now? It just doesn't seem very likely. There's going to be a lot of hardcore negotiations going on, Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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People are going to ask for 20% off, 50% off, and people are going to have to be more competitive. That's all. I suspect Palantir's go-to-market, when they start to really scale, they'll be able to underprice a bunch of these other alternatives. And so I think that when you look at the...
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impacts and pricing that all of these open source and closed source model companies have now introduced in terms of the price per token. What we've seen is just a massive step function lower, right? So it is incredibly deflationary.
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So the things that sit on top are going to get priced as a function of that cost, which means it will be an order of magnitude cheaper than the stuff that it replaces, which means that a company would almost have to purposely want to keep paying tens of millions of dollars when they don't have to. They would need to make that as an explicit decision.
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And I think that very few companies will be in a position to be that cavalier in five and 10 years. So you're either going to rebase the revenues of a bunch of these existing deterministic companies, or you're going to create an entire economy of new ones that have a fraction of the revenues today, but a very different profitability profile.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, I agree with that. My only point is that the pie can get bigger while the slices get much, much smaller.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I would like to make two semi-serious observations. Let's go. Please get us back on track. I think the first is that there's going to be a lot of people that are looking at the architecture of this conversion because if it passes muster, everybody should do it. Think about this model. Let's just say that you're in a market and you start as a nonprofit.
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What that really means is you pay no income tax. So for a long time, you put out a little bit of the percentage of whatever you earn, but you can now outspend and outcompete all of your competitors. And then once you win, you flip to a corporation. That's a great hack on the tax code.
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The other way will also work as well, because there's nothing that says you can't go in the other direction. So let's assume that you're already a for-profit company, but you're in a space with a bunch of competitors. Can't you just do this conversion in reverse, become a non-profit, Again, you pay no income tax, so now you are economically advantaged relative to your competitors.
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And then when they wither and die or you can outspend them, you flip back to a for-profit again. I think the point is that there's a lot of people that are going to watch this closely. And if it's legal and it's allowed, I just don't understand why everybody wouldn't do this. Yeah, I mean, that was Elon's point as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The second thing, which is just more of like cultural observation is, and you brought up Elon, my comment to you guys yesterday, and I'll just make the comment today. It's a little bit disheartening to see a situation where Elon built something absolutely incredible, defied every expectation. And then had the justice system take $55 billion away from him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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His payment package you're referring to at Tesla. His payment package, the options at Tesla.
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And then on the other side, Sam's going to pull something like this off, definitely pushing the boundaries, and he's going to make $10 billion. And I just think when you put those two things in contrast... That's not how the system should probably work, I think is what most people would say.
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It's great. I mean, I loved it. He's really awesome. He's super cool. It's good to do long form stuff like this so that I can actually talk.
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Someone called me, someone called me Frohman or Frohman from the 70s show. That was funny. The amount of trash talking in Rogan's YouTube comments, it's next level. It is. I mean, it is. It is the wild, wild west in terms of the comment section on YouTube.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I see that as a serious... Siri's not very good, Jekyll, and you know this because when you were driving me to the airport... We tested it and it didn't work. He tries to execute this joke where he's like, hey, Siri, send Chamath Palihapitiya a message. And it was a very off-color message. I'm not going to say what it is. It was a spicy joke. And then it's like, okay, great.
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Sending Linda blah, blah, blah.
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I was like, no, don't send that joke to her. It hallucinates and almost sends it to some woman in his contact. It would have been really damaging. It's not very good, Jason. It's not very good.
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I think David's right that there's something that's going to be totally new and unexpected. So I agree with that part of what Freebrook says. I am still not sure that glasses are the perfect form factor to be ubiquitous. When you look at a phone, A phone makes complete sense for literally everybody, right? Man, woman, old, young, every race, every country of the world.
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It's such a ubiquitously obvious form factor. But the thing is like that initial form factor was so different than what it replaced. Even if you looked at like flip phones versus that first generation iPhone. So I do think, Friedberg, you're right, that there's like this new way of interacting that is ready to explode onto the scene.
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And I think that these guys have done a really good job with these glasses. I mean, like, I give them a lot of credit for sticking with it and iterating through it and getting it to this place. It looks meaningfully better than the Vision Pro, to be totally honest.
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But I'm still not convinced that we've explored the best of our creativity in terms of the devices that we want to use with these AI models.
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No, but do you?
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But how much of that time when you say those things Are you not near some screen that you can just project and broadcast that onto? I mean, I think it's probably... If the use case is I'm walking in the park and I need to watch TV at the same time, I don't think that's a real use case.
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15 minutes, 10 minutes. That's the definition.
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Those are all useless notifications. The whole thing is to train yourself to realize that it'll come when it comes.
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It's like Samson.
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He does not give a F. I want to be clear. I think these glasses are going to be successful. My only comment is that I think that when you look back 25 and 30 years from now, and say that was the killer AI device, I don't think it's going to look like something we know today. That's my only point.
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And maybe it's going to be this thing that Sam Altman and Johnny Ive are baking up that's supposed to be this AI-infused iPhone killer. Maybe it's that thing. I doubt that will be a pair of glasses or a phone or a pin.
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I really resonate when you talk about voice only because I think there's a part of social decorum that all of these goggles and glasses violate. And I think we're going to have to decide as a society whether that's going to be okay. And then I think when you go trekking in Nepal, are you going to encounter somebody wearing AR glasses? I think the odds are pretty low.
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But you do see people today with a phone. So what do they replace it with? And I think voice as a modality is... I think it's more credible that that could be used by 8 billion people.
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or a night when we were playing poker, and I've never used it again since.
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I think that's the key observation. I really agree with what you just said. It's this, it's this idea that you're just you're liberated from The hunting and pecking and tapping.
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And they can respond. So now this is the behavior change that I don't think we're fully giving enough credit to. So today, part of what Jason talked about, what I called anxiety, is because of the information architecture of these apps. That is totally broken. And the reason why it's broken is when you tell an AI agent, get me the cheapest car right now to go to XYZ place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
It will go and look at Lyft and Uber and whatever. It'll provision the car, and then it'll just tell you when it's coming. And it will break this cycle that people have of having to check these apps for what is useless filler information. And when you strip a lot of that notification traffic away, I think you'll find that people start looking at each other in the face more often.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And I think that that's a net positive. So will Meta sell hundreds of millions of these things? I suspect probably. But all I'm saying is if you look backwards 30 years from now, what is the device that sells in the billions? It's probably not a form factor that we understand today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
The other subtle thing that's happening, which I don't think we should sleep on, is that the AirPods are probably going to become much more socially acceptable to wear on a 24 by 7 basis because of this feature that allows it to become a useful hearing aid.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And I think as it starts being worn in more and more social environments, and as the form factor of that shrinks, that's when I really do think we're going to find some very novel use case, which is you know, very unobtrusive. It kind of blends into your own physical makeup as a person without it really sticking out. I think that's when you'll have a really killer feature.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
But I think that the AirPods as hearing aids will also add a lot. So Meta's doing a lot. Apple's doing a lot. But I don't think we've yet seen the super killer hardware device yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Such a positive trend. I mean, there's so many reasons why this is good. I'll just list a handful that come to the top of my mind. The first and probably the most important is that it breaks this stranglehold that the university education system has on America's kids.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
We have tricked millions and millions of people into getting trillions of dollars in debt on this idea that you're learning something in university that's somehow going to give you economic stability and ideally freedom. And it has turned out for so many people to not be true. It's just so absurd and unfair that that has happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So if you can go and get a trade degree and live a economically productive life where you can get married and have kids and take care of your family and do all the things you want to do, that's going to put an enormous amount of pressure on higher ed. Why does it charge so much? What does it give in return? That's one thought.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
The second thought, which is much more narrow, Peter Thiel has that famous saying where if you have to put the word science behind it, it's not really a thing. And what we are going to find out is that that was true for a whole bunch of things where people went to school, like political science and social science. But I always thought that computer science would be immune.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
But I think he's going to be right about that, too, because You can spend $200,000 or $300,000 getting in debt to get a computer science degree, but you're probably better off learning JavaScript and learning these tools in some kind of a boot camp for far, far less and graduating in a position to make money right away. So those are just two ideas.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I think that it allows us to be a better functioning society. So I am really supportive of this trend.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
How do you see the differentiation the person makes, Freeberg, in doing that job versus the agent or the AI or whatever?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
This is what I'm asking you, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I buy my underwear on Etsy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Yes, I do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
They're just queuing up in my brain. I've never used that seat, but I'm going to try it now after this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
You can play the harmonica? Really?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Oh, the Ed Bradley clip, it's amazing. With Ed Bradley clip?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Yeah, well, you know, some of those songs, I don't know how I wrote them. They just came out in... But the best part is what he says afterwards. He's like, no, but I did it once. No, but I did it once. What an incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Yeah. That's really grounding. It's really grounding.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Thank you for bringing this up. I am not asking anybody to go listen to my interview with Rogan. But I will say this. Part of why I was so excited to go and talk to him in a long-form format was this issue of war is, I think, the existential crisis of this election and of this moment. And I really do agree with you, Freeberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
There is a non-trivially high probability, the highest it's ever been, that we are just bumbling and sleepwalking into a really bad situation we can't walk back from. I really hope you're wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, the Russia-Ukraine thing, meanwhile, still goes on. And we saw in our group chat, one of our friends posted But Russia basically said, any more attacks on our land, we reserve all rights, including nuclear response. That is insane.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
How are we here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I am the most... objectively scared I've ever been. And I think that people grossly underestimate how quickly this could just spin up out of control. And right now, not enough of us are spending the time to really understand why that's possible, and then also try to figure out what's the offering.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And I think it's just incredibly important that people take the time to figure out that this is a non-zero probability. And this is probably, for many of us, the first time in our lifetime where you could really say that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
The definition of liberalism has always been being completely against war of any kind and being completely in favor of free speech of all kinds. That's what being a liberal means. We've lost the script. And I think that people need to understand that this is the one issue where if we get it wrong, literally nothing else matters.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And we are sleepwalking and tiptoeing into a potential massive world war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
All it takes is one big mistake. You do not get a second chance. And for me, I have become a single issue voter. This is the only issue to me that matters. We can sort everything else out. We can figure it all out. We can find common ground and reason. Should taxes go up? Should taxes go down? Let's figure it out. Should regulations go up? Should regulations go down? We can figure it out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
But we are fighting a potential nuclear threat on three fronts. How have we allowed this to happen? Russia, Iran, China. You cannot underestimate that when you add these kinds of risks on top of each other, something can happen here. And I don't think people really know. They're too far away from it. There are too many generations removed from it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
War is something you heard maybe your grandparents talk about now, and you just thought, okay, whatever. I lived it. It's not good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So I would say that when every pundit and every person in a position to do something about it says, you have nothing to worry about, you probably have something to worry about. And so when everybody is trying to tell you, everybody, that this is not a risk, it's probably a bigger risk than we think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Me think thou doth protest it too much. All right. Love you boys. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Okay, let's steel man the bear case. Yes, that's what I'm asking, please. So one would just be on the fundamental technology itself. And I think the version of that story would go that the underlying Frameworks that people are using to make these models great is well described and available in open source.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
On top of that, there are at least two viable open source models that are as good or better at any point in time than open AI. So what that would mean is that the value of those models, the economic value basically goes to zero and it's a consumer surplus for the people that use it. So that's very hard theoretically to monetize.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I think the second part of the bear case would be that specifically meta becomes much more aggressive in inserting meta AI into all of the critical apps that they control, because those apps really are the front door to billions of people on a daily basis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So that would mean WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger, the Facebook app, and Threads gets refactored in a way where instead of leaving that application to go to a chat GPT-like app, you would just stay in the app. And then the companion to that would be that Google also does the same thing with their version in front of search.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So those two big front doors to the internet become much more aggressive in giving you a reason to not have to go to ChatGPT because A, their answers are just as good, and B, they're right there in a few less clicks for you. So that would be the second piece. The third piece is that all of these models basically run out of viable data to differentiate themselves.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And it basically becomes a race around synthetic information and synthetic data, which is a cost problem. Meaning if you're going to invent synthetic data, you're going to have to spend money to do it. And the large companies, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple, have effectively infinite money compared to any startup. Hmm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And then the fourth, which is the most quizzical one, is what does the human capital thing tell you about what's going on? It reads a little bit like a telenovela. I have not in my time in Silicon Valley ever seen a company that's supposedly on such a straight line to a rocket ship have so much high-level churn. But I've also never seen a company have this much liquidity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And so how are people deciding to leave if they think it's going to be a trillion dollar company? And why, when things are just starting to cook, would you leave if you are technically enamored with what you're building? So if you had to construct the Barrett case, I think those would be the four things. Open source, front door competition.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
The move to synthetic data and all of the executive turnover would be sort of why you would say maybe there's a fire where there's all this smoke.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
No, I think it's definitely this mini AI bubble deflating a bit. And transactions are, let me get out of some of these high multiple tech stocks that are expected to grow rapidly because of AI and shift more into stable market recovery. Interest rates are going to get cut, type trades that will benefit there. So I think it's just a rebalancing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And as a result of the high concentration of the MAG7 and the S&P and in the Qs, the indices look like they're coming down, but Yeah, there's obviously a lot of complexity in what's going on in the economy right now. But I do think that that's been a big trade for PMs, for portfolio managers over the last couple of weeks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Freeberg, your thoughts? Yeah, so I definitely agree. I think I've talked about this. We talked a little bit about it with Jonathan Haidt. There's some great studies that have shown in the past that the change in income is a better predictor of happiness than absolute income. Eventually everything normalizes. So I think UBI makes no sense for three reasons.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
The first is this normalization of spending level. So once you've kind of had this increase, you have a moment of happiness and then you actually start spending differently or spending more. And effectively every human has one innate trait. desire. And desire is what drives humanity. It's what drives progress. It's what pushes us forward.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Because no matter what our absolute condition, it's our relative condition that matters relative to others, or relative to ourselves in the past, or prospectively in the future. And so we always want to improve our condition. So a UBI-based system basically gives a flat income. So the only way for it to really work is if you increase the income automatically by, say, 10% a year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So in a UBI world, no amount of money will actually make someone satisfied or meet their minimum thresholds because those minimum thresholds will simply shift. And the second issue is just the net economic effect. If we gave 350 million Americans a thousand bucks a month, that's $350 billion a month. That's $4 trillion a year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Our prospective budget for next year is $7.3 trillion at the federal level. So that's already more than 50% of the total projected federal budget next year. finding the mechanism for funding this at scale is not what this study actually looked at. Because if you look at it, the net effect would be inflationary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And that's the third major reason is that ultimately this would have an inflationary effect. Anytime we've stimulated the economy with outside money, with government driven money, We see mini bubbles emerge and we see an inflationary effect. So look at COVID. There were all these little bubbles that popped up in the financial markets. We had NFTs, we had crypto.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
We had all these sort of new places that money found its way to. And then we had an aggregate inflationary effect. Food prices are still up 30, 40% since COVID.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And so net net, I think that the study provides an interesting insight into the micro effects, the psychological effects, the social effects, but the macro effects are what is so like simply arithmetically obvious, which is inflation, and an inability to actually fund this at scale. And fundamentally, people want to work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So they'll take that money, and then they'll go find ways to work and generate more money. And you have this inflationary effect. So I think that net UBI does not make sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Don't forget Science Corner today. We got a great Science Corner lined up. Absolutely. Sax is looking forward to it. Sax has been texting me all week about it. He's like, I can't wait for Science Corner. I'm thrilled. He was shaking nervously. He's ready.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Or would you just... Well, that's not UBI, right? And what you're describing, I think, exists. And there are incentives and programs and opportunities out there. People can... sign up with Roth IRAs, they can contribute some percentage of their paycheck to a 401k if they have a job that has a 401k set up for them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
There's a lot of systems and mechanisms out there and you get tax breaks for doing that. So there's mechanisms and incentives out there to do that sort of thing. The concept with UBI is can you pay people a flat amount of money so that they don't have to work and then they end up being able to explore and do other things with their life as the robots and AI does everything for them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And I've just always been of the belief that I don't think that there's this natural border that we hit beyond which humans don't work. I think that AI based tools and automation tools are the same as they've always been. When we developed a tractor, people didn't stop farming. They could get much more leverage using the tractor and farm more and new jobs and new industries emerge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And I expect that the same thing will happen with this next evolution of technology and human progress. Humans will find ways to create new things, to push themselves forward, to drive things forward. and for the natural market-based incentives that fundamentally are rooted in this internal system of desire will create new opportunities that we're not really thinking about.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So I don't believe in this idea of UBI and some utopian world where everyone's happy not working and letting machines do everything for them. I think that the fundamental sense of a human is to find purpose and to realize that purpose, to drive themselves forward and progress themselves. And I think that that's always gonna be the case.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And I think, by the way, it's really important to state that UBI can be more of a trap than a benefit. It takes away the opportunity for individuals to progress. Because you no longer have a system that says you progress, you get richly rewarded. It ultimately drives to an outcome where you spend all the money and distribute it equally so everyone ends up having some sort of stasis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And I don't think that that's really human nature. I do think that systems and government programs that support people's ability to succeed, to work hard, to work smart, to progress while providing these necessary safety nets is a better solution. There's no right or wrong way. It's a very complicated system that's needed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And I don't think that this like this UBI concept, it's fairly naive. And I think that you'll see it play out at both a micro and a macro scale as being, I think, net net negative.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I feel like whatever the education system is, schools or whatever, like actually teaching the vocational skills or the skills on how to succeed in the workplace. Like here's how you go get a job. Here's how you build a business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Those are the sorts of skills that are not taught in the educational system that I think are generally lacking. And then people kind of learn a bunch of history or some algebra or whatever they learn in school. And they pop out the other end and it's like, okay, go figure out how to survive. Go figure out how to get a job. Go figure out how to build a business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
But that is what they did with the Disney deal. They took the cash and they distributed it to the kids. So they each got a pretty big windfall. And then I think the concept was this remaining asset would be managed over the long term. Maybe I'm speaking out of school a bit, but I thought that's what happened there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I think we talked about that last week, but the Kamala Harris de facto nomination that took place over 48 hours, I think was a little bit shocking to a lot of people I've spoken with that there wasn't a bit more of a process to identify a nominee besides Kamala that effectively the party lined up. Now, what I think is
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
is relevant here is that for the first time, it's exposing people to the way the electoral process actually works in the United States, that it's not a direct democracy where every individual in this country votes for their federally elected people. Remember, the United States was set up as a federated republic.
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Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
that there was meant to be these states, the states were in a federation, and then the states would elect electors that would go and figure out who should be the president, who should run the federal office, and the states would elect their representatives, their congresspeople, to go represent them in the federal government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And so I think a lot of people, you know, whether it's just without thinking about it, or based on precedent, assume I get a vote and who gets to be president. What you get to have is a vote and who gets to be the delegate to represent your state in picking the president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And so this process where delegates very quickly fell behind Kamala Harris, because of the significant coalescing of power and influence within the party's the two major parties in the United States, has, I think, exposed a lot of people to the lack of a democratic process for federal executive role in this country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And I think that's a little bit shocking to people, but it is the way that the nation was set up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
That's right. And in this very unusual condition where a candidate who's earned all of these delegates drops out of the race, it's shocking and surprising to people that they don't get to go and make a vote again individually. And I think it feels unfair. And I think that a lot of people are feeling that way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I do, however, think that pretty quickly there's a lot of people who are anyone but Trump that are going to rally behind her. And she seems to be polling well in the polls that have come out in the last couple of days here. All right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I think there's a lot of talk about Roy Cooper in North Carolina. Saxon mentioned Cooper, but sounds like could be in the running and could be a leading contender for the slot. I think the Harris Trump poll is,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
is not out or there's a recent one that shows harris yeah 44 48 trump in the lead in north carolina so there's uh some some room there if you can get the governor in that spot that's a lot of uh electoral votes In terms of who I think should be, I'm not sure. But I do think that might be a top contender from folks I've talked to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So, you know, I was shocked recently to hear about a board, a pretty, you know, important board because it represents a large organization. And there was an individual on the board who was supposed to be elected chairman. They went in for the vote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And in that board meeting, this individual who happens to be Jewish, there was a conversation that ensued about you can't be the chairman at this time because having a Jewish chair would be really difficult in this current climate. And I was shocked to hear this. You know, it was... It was not expected by folks going into the meeting. Things were supposed to be quite different in the vote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And ultimately, the decision was made that a Jewish person should not be the chair of the board at this time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
J. Cal, to your question, I think that behind closed doors, these are the sorts of conversations that are going on, that there's a perception, given the Gaza conflict, that there is a risk of having Jewish leadership being put into powerful positions right now, Jewish leaders being put into powerful positions. Wow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And that's the conversation that I hear going on behind closed doors or I'm hearing about. And so, you know, it's almost like a cancel culture against Jews because of the risk of a Jewish person being in a leadership position that could drive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, the inevitable outcome of identity politics, by giving everyone a definition on their race or their gender or their background or their religion, is that you ultimately end up picking winners and losers. And you don't just get to pick winners. When you make selections or prioritize things based on identity like this, you also de facto pick losers. And that's where this unfortunate...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
snowball.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Parker apparently has done several public interviews where... He kind of made claims, I think, I don't know if I've listened to him, I've just read the summaries, but J. Cal, you probably know that Parker's claimed that he was- He just says you ran a coup on him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Right, right. Sax, I remember, I will just say, I remember how hard you worked at that after you were in the COO seat and then you were promoted to CEO. And I was really impressed watching it and seeing what you did because you chose to step up and take care of this company at a time where you expressed to all of us privately how hard it was and what a challenge this company had found itself in.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And you had investors that were friends of yours that were involved in the company that were on the board.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And I think you did what felt like at the time, and from my experience interacting with you during the time, the right thing, which was to step up and address this rather than just throw your hands in the air and say, this guy screwed things up or this company screwed up and walk away from it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
You had personally put money in, your friends had put money in, and you worked hard to try and help the business recover after this miserable period of time. And it was really impressive to watch you do that work. So I just want to... highlight my experience watching you and knowing you during that time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, Sachs might like it because it's a bit of an economic story and a bit of a China competitive story, which I think is the main point here. The story is rooted in a paper that was published out of China on their new high temperature gas cooled pebble bed reactor, which is a new type of nuclear reactor technology that shows that this thing cannot melt down, which is an amazing new technology.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
But I want to just take a step back and talk about general electricity production in the US versus China and where it's headed. So today the US has roughly one terawatt of total electricity production capacity. China today has about three terawatts of total electricity production capacity. And about 2% to 3% of that is nuclear today for China.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So by 2050, the US is projected to build out an additional terawatt to getting us to two terawatts of capacity. So we're going to double our total electricity output by 2050. China, meanwhile, has a plan stated to increase electricity production to 8.7 terawatts, so basically tripling between now and 2050. 88% of their power by 2050 will be renewables.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And by 2060, they've stated this goal that they want about 18% of their overall power to come from nuclear reactors. They currently have 26 nuclear reactors in the construction phase. They've got planning going on around building 300 of these. And they've already got stated plans around 500 gigawatts of capacity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Just to give you a sense of that, 500 gigawatts, which is what China's got plans for, is half of the total U.S. electricity production today. That's in their nuclear build-out. Today, just to give you a sense of the relative cost of electricity, China's about 7 to 9 cents a kilowatt hour. The U.S. is 17 to 25 cents a kilowatt hour.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And China is projected to drop their price to less than 6 cents due to the expansion of renewables and nuclear power in the country. So the US cost is about triple what it is in China to build out new electricity capacity. That's a really important point. So currently we have about a third of what China has. China's going to triple, we're going to double by 2050.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Their cost is already lower than ours, and it's going to get lower. And their cost to build out new electricity is a fraction of what it is in the US. So this is a massive difference. The International Energy Agency estimates that the electricity from nuclear power costs 65 bucks per megawatt hour, in China compared to 105 in the US and 140 in the EU.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And recent data has US costs looking like they might be anywhere from five to up to 10 times what it costs to build out in China. So this is a real important long-term competitive point. China has more electricity production. It's cheaper to make electricity and it's cheaper to build new capacity and they're building at an accelerated rate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And this really highlights the industrial challenge the United States is gonna have in the decades ahead. We talk a lot about wanting to onshore manufacturing in the US, build out new manufacturing technologies, but ultimately all of these industries, particularly AI, are gonna be driven by the cost of power. So, Nick, if you pull up this chart, so what's going on in nuclear?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, there's effectively considered to be four generations of nuclear reactors. The first generation was all the early prototypes, and I've got an image up here to show this comes from the Department of Energy. The second generation, which was the first kind of commercial power reactor, started to get built out in the 1960s, 70s, 80s.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And then these Gen 3 reactors were these lighter weight reactors that... were kind of more advanced. Gen four is the next generation of nuclear power reactors and their next generation because they're meant to be much more safe where they cannot theoretically have a meltdown. You can't have a nuclear meltdown like you had with Fukushima or with Three Mile Island.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, and so these old reactors have this risk where you pump water in to cool down the reactor and to drive the turbine. And if the water pumping system fails and you can't get the rods out of the reactor,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
then the reactor keeps reacting, the uranium keeps having this kind of chain reaction, gets hotter and hotter and eventually gets so hot, it melts all the walls and all the surrounding materials of the reactor and all of the nuclear rods start to evaporate and all this nuclear material is released into the environment. That's the risk of a meltdown ultimately.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
This is not a nuclear bomb, just to be clear. It's just about really high temperatures, melting the facility, and then radioactive material escapes the facility. The Gen 4 reactors are designed where that isn't possible. And so one of the first, if you go to this next slide, you'll see just kind of an image here. This is the new reactor called the Pebble Bed Reactor. China started this facility.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I don't want to butcher the name, but I think I will. It's at the Xiadawan site in Shandong province. It's a 210 megawatt electricity production facility. They started construction in 2012. They finished and started doing operational tests in December of 22. They ran all the safety tests in the summer of 23, where they turned off the cooling and basically simulated that the system failed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
to see if it would melt down. And that's the results that they just published, which was the test they ran last summer. And even when they turned everything off, the system did not fail. It did not have a meltdown. It maintained its ability to control its temperature and not have a meltdown.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And the way it works, as you can see here, is that these little pebbles, they're kind of like billiard ball-sized pebbles, have uranium in their core. These pebbles kind of drop into the center reactor chamber. And when the uranium is close to other uranium, a chain reaction starts to generate heat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
That heat is actually in this reactor concept captured by helium gas that circulated inside around the reactor. That hot helium gas heats up water, turns a turbine, generates electricity. And then these billiard balls fall out the bottom. So what they did is they simulated that the system stopped circling, that the power went out and measured what happened ultimately. It was able to recover.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
It didn't melt down. And this is quite different, Nick, if you show an old model of an old nuclear rod system. So here's nuclear rods. They're made of uranium. They go inside these chambers that have other uranium. And when they touch each other or get close to each other, they heat up. And you have water that has to be pumped continuously to keep it cool to maintain a low temperature.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
What happened in Fukushima and other facilities where we've had meltdowns is that the water stopped pumping. Everything kind of evaporated away and the rods didn't get pulled. If the rods can't get pulled out and the water can't keep pumping, you have a meltdown. When things get so hot, it melts everything around it and collapses. So this Chinese site,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
just demonstrated this pebble bed reactor, which is a gen four reactor, and it has extraordinary safety profile. There's basically no condition where the system would have a meltdown. So these gen four reactors are smaller, they're more modular, they're much, much safer, they're more efficient, they have much less waste. You still have to store those used billiards somewhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So you still have to kind of take them and put them somewhere and keep them underground for 10,000 years. But compared with previous reactors, you know, this plant is designed to be much more efficient, much safer. And they completed the safety test. They published the results on the safety test. And I think it really shows the performance is there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And this was always meant to be future technology, these Gen 4 reactors. China opened up commercial operations of this reactor in December of 2023. So it's running, it's producing power, it's on the grid. And this design, funny enough, was first proposed in the 1940s. And it took us nearly 100 years to get it to market.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
which makes me also point out why I'm so optimistic 100 years from now on fusion technology, which seemed crazy today. And this sort of technology seemed crazy at the time, but 80 years later, we've gotten there. So this was an exciting outcome, but I really do want to highlight the competitiveness with China. Lower cost to produce, lower cost to run. And the downstream.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And this is why I asked Donald Trump when he came on the show, and I want to make my passionate plea. This is why investing in and deregulating nuclear reactor technology in the United States to enable a competitive playing field with the United States and China in the decades ahead is so critical. Because if we don't, China will beat the United States industrially.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And we will eventually find ourselves in a greater point of conflict with respect to this rising power that is going to be driven by low cost, highly abundant power. And the United States does not have that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, so the solar build-out, Chamath, is in the US forecast where we could get, in an optimistic scenario, a doubling of power output from one terawatt to two. That's in the system today, in the forecast. But how do we get to nine? That's where China's gonna be at by 2050.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And we have to have this ability to more rapidly kind of accelerate, you know, high power output systems like nuclear, because while solar is great, it's a low power output. You need, you know, much more volume. So this is a highly concentrated system. And the cost per megawatt hour, you know, can be significantly competitive if you use these small modular reactors and accelerate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Difficult to scale. I mean, we're not gonna open up 500 more coal power plants in the next couple of years. What about oil and nat gas? Yeah, so today nat gas is 44% of US power production capacity. And we are gonna build out and we are building out new nat gas facilities, but that's in the forecast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So all of our forecasts today for the US are mostly nat gas going out and a lot of solar and wind going out to 2050 to double our capacity. And it's already a stretch for us to be able to double our capacity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
We have to get nuclear going in the United States. And these systems are safe. They are scalable. And if the United States embraced this, and we took a public policy perspective that this is about competitiveness with China, it's about national security. I'm hopeful that whoever comes in to lead the executive branch in this next administration will be really thoughtful and make this a top priority.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So that's my plea and my reason for going through this today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Happy birthday, Xander.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, GCP in the last quarter did $10.3 billion in revenue, which is up from $8 billion in revenue the year before, in the same quarter the year before. And importantly, in this past quarter, they're running at a $1.2 billion operating profit out of GCP.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So, you know, if you kind of think about what cloud margin should be over time and kind of call it 20% to 30% margin, this cloud business could be generating $20 to $30 billion a year of free cash flow. Hmm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Now in the last year, if you kind of look at, or even if you look at the last quarter annualized, Google is generating currently about $60 billion a year in free cashflow as an overall organization, Alphabet is. And they have over a hundred billion in cash.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So, you know, what can I do to accelerate this cloud outcome given the risks, the challenges, the slowdown with respect to the core consumer business, cloud and AI-based tools really is where it's at. And so Google's asking this important strategic question, I would imagine, what can we do to accelerate outcomes in the cloud? And what can we do that is going to be big enough to matter?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And what can we do that is going to pass antitrust muster? So we can actually get it through antitrust authorities. So cloud security kind of comes top of mind. It's a fast growing segment as evidenced by the results with Wiz.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And it's an opportunity for Google to cross sell and to secure more enterprise customers and theoretically cross sell more enterprise revenue by getting folks on a platform that Google could now offer. I would imagine that what Sachs is saying is probably right. I have absolutely no sense of what these individuals and board members at Wiz are thinking, but I think what Sachs is saying is right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
This is an incredibly fast growing business. Peter Thiel made the comment once, which I think is totally right. Either the buyer pays way too much or the seller sells way too early.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
When you have a fast-growing business like this, it's really an important question to kind of acknowledge that if Wiz continues to grow at this rate, it's conceivable they could be in the range of a Palo Alto Network's $100 billion market cap in a couple of years, given this momentum and if you progress it forward.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So if I was them, I would ask that question, could we reach 100 billion if we feel reasonably confident? This may be a risk worth taking. And what's the downside, right? The downside is they go public next year anyway, and maybe they're only valued at 15 billion or 20 billion. There's not a lot of downside from this offer and certainly seems to be quite a bit of upside.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
But I think for cloud, the thing to watch is what they're gonna do next. Google wants to accelerate beyond AWS. They wanna become the leader. And they're gonna look for other sizable transactions that will pass antitrust muster. And so I think you could see them perhaps looking at some public M&A in the same space. And I wouldn't be surprised to see them start to get active in that sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
If you are a great musician, you should be at Juilliard. You should not be going to MIT because you think it's a checkmark. You should be going there because you think that there are professors in organic chemistry, in physics, in these disciplines that are really important, who are experts in their fields, that you can learn from and become an expert yourself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And I think the problem with all of this other stuff is once you make it a credential, there are some folks that are only going to MIT, because they could get in and because it's a great credential in their minds. And they shouldn't go there either. So I think the thing is, you have to get back to what matters, which is, there are all of these industries that have not progressed that much.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And in order for those industries to advance, you need really talented young people who can learn and apprentice and then take over. And I think MIT is one of these rare places that focuses on this part of the physical world that hasn't had as much progress. And so I just want to make sure that the people that go there actually want to be there for that reason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Gender, race, all that other stuff shouldn't matter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
No offense to everybody at Harvard, but Harvard is more of a pure credential. Like MIT, I buy more that you go there for certain kinds of specializations. Caltech, you go there for certain specializations. If you're really into wine, you go to UC Davis. My point is these schools exist for reasons other than just as a collector coin that you put in your pocket.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I'm not sure Harvard is really known for anything other than for being quote unquote elite, but even that's questionable now. But in the technical areas... I really do think that MIT was an important place where people would go to train. And I just want to make sure whoever they're letting in actually cares about the thing they're studying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I think what would be much more valuable than all of this is for companies to hire from a whole bunch of different schools than they do today, and to break the back of this elitist culture we have around certain schools. All of the things that you guys are talking about to me sound kind of crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And the reason is because you could go to Iowa State or you could go to Harvard and you could make a claim, and I would buy it, that in some random social science, maybe there's an advantage in the people that you meet. But there's not necessarily an advantage for studying physics at any of these two schools.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
It's not like one's teaching you that gravity goes up and the other teaches you that gravity goes down. So I think the bigger problem is that we don't value enough these fundamentally important skills that we need for humanity to evolve. And then number two, we have fallen to this trap of saying that these schools, these highly credentialed schools that cost 60 and 70 and $80,000 a year,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
graduate the best kids. And I don't think that that's true either. So the thing that we could all do, because we're all hirers, we hire thousands of people, is we should be going to all kinds of different schools. Today, I just gave an offer to a guy that went to Virginia Tech. And this kid seems awesome. kick ass.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And when we put out job postings for 8090, we veer towards these schools that are like hardcore technical places where none of all of this random credentialed nonsense gets in the way. And so they're hungrier as a result, they're more earnest, and you can cut through the BS. The other thing I would say is that it's even more...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
capable now of getting through the filter of these credentials and knowing the quality of a person. You can look at GitHub repos, if you're a developer, you can look at all of these things that allow you to understand. So I don't know, I disagree with your guys's thing of like, let's go figure out all these other things. How about we stop hiring people
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
and valuing randomly non-specific degrees just because they come from a good school.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
No, but I'm saying if your son or daughter were to go and study computer science at North Carolina State, the biggest thing that you could do is be okay with it. Another example of a school that does a great job of recruiting from non-traditional places. Why would I not be okay with it? No, no, this is my point. I think it's a decision.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I'm saying that I'm not saying that you are, but I'm saying that if you make it a big deal, that North Carolina State is somehow worse than some other credentialed school because our social cohort says that those other schools are better. We're part of the problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, you should stop saying top. They're not top schools. They're not top schools anymore. They're not the smartest kids. They're not the hardest working kids. So we should stop saying top schools. These Ivy League schools are not the top schools.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, that's a different thing. I actually think what America needs is what I benefited from at the University of Waterloo, which is an active and vibrant co-op program.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I really disagree with you. I don't think that there is an incredibly better way to teach thermodynamics. I think that's a bit of a joke. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So then like the universities in America that have these co-op programs, I think are incredible institutions. Again, they're not the typical ones. There are places like Drexel and other places. But now you allow these kids to be in the trenches with people building things. And I just think that that's an incredible gift for them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
But it's also an incredible opportunity for these organizations to understand the quality of the person beyond some credential. Totally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
You don't sit down to pee? No, I'm serious. I'm not joking around. You guys. So many jokes. I'm not going there. That's a soy estrogen boy joke. No, we can cut this out. But my pediatrician said, HMOP, I think it's really important to teach your boys to pee sitting down. And even for you as you get older. What are you talking about? It's good for the prostate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Didn't Malcolm Gladwell write something which is roughly the equivalent of like, you're better off getting the top 10 student at a non-Ivy versus like the 50th student at an Ivy or something? I don't know, there was like something, like maybe it was like a chapter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, it's like these kids are excellent. When they're achieving and they're excelling in things that are not subjective. You want to go get those kids. Yeah. You know?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Let's all commit to hiring as many people as possible from non-traditional schools. Absolutely. I mean, that's what I do already. I mean, it's working.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, I think these are really good businesses, but they are some combination of entertainment and gambling. I don't think that these things are as useful as directional indicators as they are just really interesting businesses that allow people to bet and wager on all kinds of random things. So I would not look to these sites for that necessarily. Okay.
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I think that people like Nate Silver do a pretty reasonable job. In his specific case, I think he does a very good job of threading together and doing this meta-analysis of polls. But I think we've learned that this polling is pretty brittle and not super reliable. So the betting markets are exactly that. It's like sports betting, but just on different things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I don't even know why any of this matters. Why are we talking about this?
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I suspect, though, that I suspect that a lot of that is really at the edges. I read an article recently that just talked about the enormity of the investment that both the Democrats and the Republicans are making to get to these critical areas in these five critical states.
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And if you live in one of these zip codes that really matter, I think that there is just no room for anything but what each side is saying. I don't think you're looking at a betting market or a poll or any of this stuff. And I think the reason why these places have become so critical is that they are very balanced.
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They are people that have a good way of making sense of the world and they change their minds a lot, right?
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They're people that underwrite and re-underwrite their decisions. And to me, that's actually a really wonderful thing to know that there are these, call it million people in these zip codes in five states that are actually quite thoughtful. And I'm actually okay that in the end that those folks will decide.
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I would be much more worried if it was hyper-partisan and set up in a way where none of these lies, whoever tells them, are uncovered. The way that it's set up today, all of the crazy ideas get run to the ground. All of the lies get uncovered. And I think that that's a really... healthy place. And I think it's a much better place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I'm generally like, really glad that things look like quote, unquote, a question mark, because I think it creates much more pressure for the candidates to be precise. And I think that that's very important. So I'd love to talk about some of these crazy policy things as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You're picking up on something that I think is really important that I think has been underreported. It really is a tale of two different tickets. The Republican ticket, whether you like them or not, are very financially astute actors. And if you look at the Democratic ticket, they are underinvested to not invested at all in anything that would normally resemble the United States economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I find that a very odd distinction, meaning The way that I would think people would want to see their candidates is folks who have a very sophisticated understanding of the parts that they're going to govern. And in this case, if you're going to sit atop the economy, one would hope that you're invested in the economy in some way so that you know how it works.
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And it's a little surprising to me that nobody's really questions how underinvested the Democratic ticket is. And it's almost as if the Republican ticket for their financial sophistication is looked down upon.
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I mean, they never had a middle class. I think it's important. to not color this as because you worked in government, you can't be invested or you can't own a home or you can't actually have built a nest egg, right? Because that's also not true.
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And we have, there's some extreme examples of people who've been Pelosi, essentially, yeah, career civil servants, essentially, and it built multi hundred million dollar portfolio, we can, we can question in specifically in the case of all house representatives, whether they're getting access to a kind of information that other people don't get access to. But taking that off the table,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think that there are people in all kinds of jobs who are able to save and invest and then acquire things that they believe will give them security for themselves and their children in the future. And I don't think that it is because of a kind of job that you do. I think it's a kind of mindset that you have. And I think it's very important to make sure that whoever we pick
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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we understand the mindset. I really believe that there are a couple of things that are really critical to thinking about the future and wanting to make the future better. I think one obvious one is when you have kids. When you have kids, you're making sacrifices every day.
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You're foregoing things today because whether it's saving for college, saving for school, saving for a class, saving for a sports thing that you want your kids to go to, music, whatever it is, you're always... finding ways of thinking about what is better in the future for that other person, not me.
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And the second is, I think being an investor actually makes you care about the future in a really productive way. Because you're foregoing, often cases, when we all invest, we're foregoing short-term gains on the hope that we can help shape a much longer-term outcome in the future that makes all of that worthwhile.
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And so I like it when I can see people that have those things at play and that they, even in whatever small way they can, are manifesting that. And I always have a question mark, like how is it possible that at no point you have tried to be invested in your own and your children's future that way?
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Crazy? Socialist?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's less about fair or unfair, but I think that we are in the part of the cycle where enough people don't feel the positive aspects of capitalism that they want to push back against it. I just put a little image in here, Nick, if you want to just throw it up in the chat. But when you look from 1913 on to today, the reality is we've had
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Yeah, I mean, I think the economy is a lot slower than what people thought, which, to your point, the silver lining is that it probably now tips the balance of action in September to a cut. And if it was 25 basis points, there's probably going to be a lot of folks lobbying the Fed to cut 50. And I think that they probably have enough numerical justification now to cut 50.
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many different forms of political philosophy that have governed the country. And what you can see is that tax rates have varied wildly at the federal level. And I think it's because that at certain times, there was the political will to go to extremes. And this may be a moment where we are going to explore the extremes that we had in the 40s and the 50s.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think the reality is that if that does happen, you're going to see people behave in ways that weren't possible in the 40s and 50s. In the 40s and 50s, everybody was more geopolitically constrained. I don't think that that's the case anymore. And the way that people start companies, where they start companies, the flexibility of citizenship have changed really dramatically.
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So if it's the will of the people that they want to explore these mechanisms, I think other people will react in kind and the die will be cast. So I don't have much of an opinion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Let's put it this way. We have a small microcosm of this going on within the 50 states, which is, if you said California was the United States, And Texas and Florida were, I'll make up two different countries, Malta and Dubai. Well, what happens when taxation goes beyond the pale? And what happens when budget deficits and spending go beyond the pale?
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And when the government plays too large of a hand in the economy? Yeah. People leave with their feet. Companies leave. So we don't need to guess what's going to happen, because if it can happen between California and Texas, it probably stands to reason it can happen between the United States and the UAE, as an example. Yeah.
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There's golden visas in some great countries. Portugal has a golden visa. The UAE has a golden visa. Italy has a golden visa. The UK had this great program, what was called non-DOMs for a long time. So the point is that all of these took advantage of countries that went to extremes, and they lost citizens as a result.
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And I suspect that if what the US voting population wants to do is explore that extreme, these policies will get enacted, and then people will act in kind. The only thing that I would just, again, reinforce is... Unlike when taxes went to 90% in the 40s and 50s, people are much, much more mobile than they were then.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think the bigger problem, though, is if you don't have an accurate sense of where employment really is, and Sachs did mention this, you will also then have an inaccurate sense of where GDP is. And I think the one-two punch could be very problematic. I think what we're learning more than anything else is we have a very sophisticated economy. We have a very sophisticated capital market system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And there's like a materially different percentage in terms of prostate cancer rates when you pee sitting down. Because you expel all the pee that just kind of gets caught there. The dribble? Swear to God, bro. I swear to God. What about a good shake?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
We have very sophisticated actors in those markets, all of us included, who can react to real-time data and make the right decisions. The problem is we have bad data. And the bad data, I think, is something that is fixable, but we need to make an effort to do it because it's insane that the largest and most sophisticated economy in the world is this unpredictable.
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Scary, but reasonable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think that's like the big question that I have, which is how is it possible in 2024 that we haven't just made this a priority to fix this? And with all of the systems that exist and all of the SaaS tools that exist and everything that's used to like hire and fire and pay people, we don't have an accurate sense of this number.
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I think it's actually more than that. I think what will happen is funds, governments, et cetera, for the right entrepreneurs with the right assets will help you pay the exit tax more. so that you can just leave the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And that's going to be an investment class that's going to emerge, in my opinion, which is these organizations that will pool capital, sovereign wealth funds specifically, and when an entrepreneur shows up and they have, you know, 50, 100, a billion dollar tax bill to expatriate from the United States, they will pay it for you.
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And the reason is they'll bring the jobs and they'll bring the know-how and they'll bring the future capital investment into that country. It's a very easy investment to underwrite actually. So I would just pay a lot of close attention to the fact that capital flows are very fungible in 2024 and they'll only become more fungible over time.
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I think it's important, though, you have to now go to the logic. If this is what people want, I think it's important for people to see the impact of it and then for them to have to change their mind or stay with what they're doing because it's working.
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Yeah, so what that company did was it was an agent that you would download on your phone and we would task you to go and collect certain kinds of information. And yeah, there was some socioeconomic data that was collected. A lot of it now is... with three-letter agencies and the like. So without getting into details, that company's doing quite well, but it's just moved in a different direction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you just created some kind of like a DARPA challenge, like equivalent to this, give it to Stripe, give it to Gusto. give it to a handful of these smart companies to give a guesstimate and see who accurately predicts this number over the course of a year or two. That's more reliable and frankly, more useful to the market than what the BLS is doing.
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My first job out of college, by the way, was not in tech, but it was in finance. I was a derivatives trader. And what was so incredible is I remember sitting at my desk in front of my terminal on the trading floor when non-farm payrolls would hit and people would just go crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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What about a shake? Nick, you can cut all of this. No, the shake doesn't do it.
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There would just be literally tens or hundreds of billions of dollars that would start flying back and forth based on what that number was. And now to think about that much velocity in a totally random way, because those numbers aren't reliable, it seems just crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Freebrook, what does the betting market say specifically for September?
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It's not even clear how they were making decisions before, nor now. But I tweeted about this yesterday. I think the thing that matters more than anything else is to make sure that the people that they are letting in are in love and obsessed with the things that MIT is supposed to be great at. So if you are a great creative thinker, designer, architect, you should be at RISD. I'm giving an example.
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Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Rain Man, David Sackett.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And the work and the effort that people put into this over several decades, it's just such an incredible feat. Look at this thing. I don't know if you guys were as emotionally moved by this as I was. I thought it was incredible.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Right, you just catch it and go again. I can kind of walk through these numbers. So... Obviously, the big objective over time is how cheap can you get it to put material into space, we need a lot of material to go into space, if we're going to do things in space, particularly if we're going to go build a colony on Mars.
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And so this shows you over time, the cost per kilogram, which is the key metric in this industry to launch material into low earth orbit. And you can see here how SpaceX has dramatically reduced the cost. I remember when the small sat era began in the 2010s. Do you guys remember all these startups that were starting to build like little small sats and put them up to do imaging and comms and stuff?
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When this took off, It was about 10,000 bucks a kilogram to put a small sat into space or to put material into space. And then SpaceX has dropped the cost to the point that it's now close to $1,000 a kilogram. So a 10X reduction in cost in just the last decade or so. And that's why SpaceX just dominates the launch market. But Elon's always said that $1,000 a kilogram is too high
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But his objective has been to get the cost down to 10 bucks a kilogram. Because at 10 bucks a kilogram, you could launch what some people estimate is needed to get to Mars, which is about half a million tons of material and people to set up a colony on Mars. And it actually becomes feasible to get, you know, half a million tons of material at 10 bucks a kilogram. So if you look at
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this new Starship and Starship heavy booster, it's about 150, 200 ton payload. The booster holds, you know, 3,400 tons of propellant. And, uh, the cost of that propellant is pretty low. You know, it's, uh, It's only about a million dollars in fuel.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So then if you can get the cost of the booster and the Starship down enough, and you can reuse it enough, and you amortize the cost of making that device over the lifetime of the device, the cost per launch comes down. And that's what brings the cost per kilogram down. So the booster, there's a group called Payload, and they do estimates on this.
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So I won't speak out of turn in terms of like having inside knowledge. But the Payload has estimated that Starship And the booster cost about 90 million bucks today. And they think that they have a path to getting it down to 35 million. So if you can reuse that thing 10 times, that's a $3.5 million cost per launch, plus a million for fuel. You could easily see, and this thing can launch 200 tons.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Do you guys think polymarket is like, why do you think it's different from the polls? Are we talking about this today? Polymarket's showing like 60, 40 or 65, 35 now, right? Yeah, because they're measuring different things.
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That's how you start to get to 10 bucks a kilogram. over the next couple of years, but it was critical to be able to reuse that heavy booster. And that's what Elon just demonstrated. It's we can actually catch that heavy booster, refuel it and launch it an hour later. And if you can do that over and over again, you're spending 10 bucks a kilogram to put material into space.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You can get fuel into space and then get those starships to fly off to Mars and deliver. all this material, including setting up a base that would allow you to actually make more fuel on Mars, because everything we need to make fuel is on Mars. So it's the beginning of the next series of really important milestones that'll hopefully get humanity onto Mars.
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It was just so amazing to see it come together. The economics are legit. I mean, this is like a thousand X reduction in cost. It's incredible.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Starlink's apparently, I mean, I know everyone here is a shareholder in SpaceX, but Starlink's running at 4 million subs right now. That's like 100 bucks a month, 4 million subs. And if you do the math, I mean, how many people... have ISPs that are slower than Starlink, right? How many people have cell phone providers that they're paying roughly the same amount that aren't as good as Starlink?
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
If we can get satellite to phone and you can get Starlink more broadly available, this could be 100 million subscriber business. I mean, this could be one of the biggest businesses on the earth.
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We could look back one day and be like, why did we run all this copper wire everywhere? We don't need it.
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Especially if it can be like crazy that we were like ever. I mean, the whole nutty thing about this past week, it's like we could look back one day and be like, why did we ever drive cars? And why do we ever have copper wire laid all over the earth to like move internet signals around? You know, this, this efficiency game that's going to be realized over the next decade is just incredible.
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Just incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
But let me ask you this. So Nate Silver's model, which takes the poll from each state and builds in a kind of a Monte Carlo of super poll, like a super model for the whole country. Why is his estimate 50-50 right now while the poly market is betting at 60-40?
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Guys, I have big news. I just bought my first Tesla.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Did you go with a Plaid Model S? Model S Plaid, yeah. I test drove it for two weeks and sold itself.
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I use FSD, and it was, like, really impressive. Super impressive. I've tried Tesla a couple times over the years, and it never really worked for me. The quality just didn't feel like, given what I had before, the car-wise. You were an Audi guy, right? Audi guy, yeah. Always loved Audis. Audi guys are neat guys.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Anyway, it's a big milestone. I thought the FSD was the selling. And then the speed on the Plaid is just insane. It's better than my RS7. It's incredible.
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It's my favorite. I love it.
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It was awesome. Awesome.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
How do you think they're going to change after the interviews the last couple of days? Trump on Bloomberg and Kamala on Fox. Do you think those are going to change anything? I don't think so. I think it's all baked in now.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So I think that Dara knows Expedia better than anyone. He ran the business for, what, a decade or so?
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And so he knows how that business operates. And so if he's looking at this thing and the stock price has been flat roughly since he left in 2017, if you look at the underlying financial performance, you could kind of start to construct a rationale for buying Expedia this cheap. And it would be very accretive to Uber, even if there are these big strategic risks on the horizon.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So just to give you some numbers on it all, Uber has got about 150 million monthly active users. Expedia has about 45, 50 million customers a year that use the service and pay for stuff. So there's a real opportunity to think about the Uber customer base that's installed and as being almost an opportunity to market to them Expedia services and cross sell.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So Expedia on an annualized basis is spending about $8 billion a year in sales and marketing and about $720 million a year in G&A costs. And they're running about $3 billion EBITDA right now. run rate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So if you cut about half the GNA in an acquisition, because you don't need all the people that overlap with Uber's people, you know, and you cut about 30% of the sales and marketing dollars, because you can cross sell into the Uber install base, you could see a scenario where you could increase Expedia's EBITDA by 75 to 100%, maybe getting it as high as $6 billion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Wow. He's as exciting as Tim Walls.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And while Expedia's market cap trades at $20 billion, this is off of, you know, obviously the recent news that they might get acquired. If you kind of assume a 40%, 50% price premium to the last 90-day average of the stock price, which is kind of typical or common for a deal like this, they're probably paying $26 billion for the company. and they got about 4 billion in net cash.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So you're kind of paying about 22 billion enterprise value to buy Expedia. So 22 billion of enterprise value, and if you can bump the EBITDA up to 6 billion a year, that's a pretty low multiple. I mean, you could kind of see yourself rationalizing this just from a financial basis that you're paying four times EBITDA to buy this thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And Dara knows this thing, and he would have great command over what needs to be done over there, and he would have a great sense of what to change and what's gone wrong. And there's a lot of interesting assets inside of Expedia. VRBO is a great one that's been under-monetized and underutilized. I don't know if you've used the UX on VRBO versus Airbnb.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
There's obviously some influence Dara could have with people that he knows well that could go in and fix that interface and make it a better service.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And even as AI starts to step in and hotels maybe integrate better with agents and so on, and they show up in a more ubiquitous way, there's other things that Expedia does like build vacation packages and travel packages that are high margin products that they sell. that are a little bit different than what you're used to with just booking a flight.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Booking flights makes no money for anyone, but vacation packages is where all the money's at. And so theoretically Expedia could be smarter about how they build vacation packages and personalize them for families. And that's where they can make real margin, like 20, 30% margin. So I could see a story where this all starts to click for the board at Uber saying, maybe it makes sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Well, let me ask you this. So my observation as, I don't know, I'm not like a super political person or whatever, a party-oriented person. I looked at a lot of the media on both sides, and it seems like everyone on the left says Kamala did an amazing job on Fox. She defended herself. She showed her skills and her competency. And then everyone on the right is like she embarrassed herself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Dara knows what he's talking about. We could buy this thing for four times pro forma EBITDA. This could be hugely accretive for us. So I think that's why this is happening, why this conversation may be happening. That's just me trying to understand what the rationale might be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So they're spending about $8 billion a year run rate on sales and marketing at Expedia right now. And Uber has got 150 million active installed users that are using this, the Uber services every month. So the idea would be customers. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So if Uber could cross sell some number of Expedia services to their installed base at Uber, which they could test and, you know, do a little experiment and see if it works. They may be able to reduce the marketing dollars that Expedia is spending to acquire customers through other third-party sources like Google and Bing and other places. So there's a rationale.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Yeah, they had that whole ad thing that adds... Yeah, that's making a ton of money.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Would you trust Dara's judgment on this, Sax? Like, if Dara were to think about...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
She fell apart. And then the same thing happened with the Trump interview on Bloomberg. People are like, On the left, they say, look at how he couldn't handle the interviewer and he fell apart and all his lies were exposed. And everyone on the right's like, look at him, he got a standing ovation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
What about not the moment when you're when you're riding in an Uber, but the moment when you say as an Uber user, hey, I need to book travel. I got to go on a vacation to Austin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
What if they had a tab that said book your travel here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
They have a real ad business at Uber.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It's almost like everyone's just kind of like self-asserting their beliefs that they already hold when they judge these people on these interview shows at this point. Is it already baked at this point? Like, is anyone actually going to change their view? based on these interviews happening?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
What about the brand value, Zach? Because you know those people are going to another app to book their flight in their hotel. What if that other app was called Uber Travel? There might be some value in that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I think that would be the rationale where I could see the Expedia brand. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Yeah, exactly. I mean, well, you could quantify because Expedia is spending on it every year right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Yeah, I don't know the nature of the deals. I did, I think, talk about this a year ago. It was also like my prediction for the year was to buy the uranium stocks predicated on what I think is a really important point. which is as GDP per capita grows, energy consumption per capita grows.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And if you looked at the projections of GDP per capita in industrialized nations, there was no way, there is no way to meet the energy demand. And this was even pre all this crazy AI build out, which is probably part of the GDP growth. But there is no way to meet the energy demand without nuclear. There is not enough
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
solar geothermal or wind build-out potential that's happening, that the stopgap measure is going to have to be, and probably the right long-term solution, is to have a significant amount of baseload come from nuclear. And so what's the fastest way to do that nuclear build-out? Well, in China, they have the regulatory authority and the mandate stated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
They're going to build 300 gigawatts with 300 facilities or whatever the number is. And that's what they're doing. Very large facilities that make a gigawatt of power each.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
In the US, it seems that because of the regulatory structure here and the way that utilities are regulated and the way that the states have authority on the environmental laws and all the other things, that it might be the fastest path to solving this energy gap problem is SMRs. And these things produce tens of megawatts. So again, a gigawatt is a thousand megawatts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And we need to kind of probably grow our energy production in the United States by several terawatts over the next decade or two. So this SMR may be the fastest path. Now that could change, meaning we could end up seeing much larger facilities get built out if there's regulatory change in the US and there's more availability.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
But fundamentally, we are going to need to use uranium to make electricity to meet the demand of the growing the GDP that it seems we're going to be growing it. I think this is just such a necessity. It's great to see the SMR is getting some attention. I just don't know if they're actually going to get turned on, how long it's going to take. And
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Do you give her any credit for going into the lion's den like she did?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
you know, I don't know what this election cycle is going to bring in terms of regulatory change. I think we talked about it with several of the candidates when we were doing the interviews.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So I don't think this is going to happen. This show really has a diversity of views, doesn't it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I think Sachs' point of view, to be honest, is the point of view that will be held by a large number of people, just like they have been with a lot of other kind of- Is it the right point of view, though?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Well, no, no, I don't think it is. I think that the same argument would have been made around we shouldn't have airplanes at all because they can fall from the sky. We should keep everyone on the ground where they're safe. Why would you want to get on an airplane? Why would you want to have airplanes flying over your home? We should all ban airplanes flying over our home.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
They could crash in our home. It's the same sort of argument. And the reason I'm not going to argue the point is because of the point I made earlier, which is that it ultimately becomes an economic necessity
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
that for us to meet all of the demands of AI, all of the demands of industry, we want to reindustrialize the United States, et cetera, et cetera, we need to increase electricity production capacity on the continent. And there is no way to generate enough electricity on this continent fast enough using other means than there would be if we just got these systems set up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I think globally this is the case, and we're seeing it in China. Now, whether the U.S.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Yeah, that's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Yeah, and we may end up being the Luddite state, and we'll end up just saying, you know what? We're not going to adopt new technology, including things like— gene editing and cell therapies. And I'll go through the list of new technology sets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You could make the argument that there's a low probability of a high risk event, but the fact is that the progress that it enables is worth so much more than the risk that we would be taking on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
The countries and the businesses that have a lower cost of electricity and a more abundant source of electricity will end up winning as the economy continues to progress towards a much more kind of digital state and automated state over the next decades. So if we're going to be slower, we're going to suffer the consequences of that as a country. So we'll see how it plays out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I just think that economic incentives will ultimately drive, hopefully, a change.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I'm not sure. I haven't thought much about what the incentives or subsidies would be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
What would be the number? I think that people have a very deep fear
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
of you know what is deemed to be cataclysmic technology i do think a lot of this was rooted in the evolution of the atomic age where we basically have these nuclear warheads mounted to missiles that can travel at 20 times the speed of sound and land on your city and wipe out your city i mean that that is also nuclear technology and people conflate the two as being similar and even three mile island there were you know no deaths it was a shocking scary thing for people but
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
statistically speaking and historically speaking and technically speaking, it's a lot more complicated to explain to people what happened and why and why now is different. And no one has the time for that. No one wants to hear that. They want to hear a very simple, do you really want a nuclear power plant in your backyard? No way. What about you? No way. All right, let's vote to stop it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Do you have any data on the safety record of nuclear technology? Because I'm not sure you do. I think my point is like, you're just making a statement out of fear.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You know that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
That's not true. You're saying something that's not true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
First of all, it's not been discredited.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It's social fear-mongering like you are doing right now with no data and no facts to try and make it a political issue that drives everyone to one side, shut their minds down, and not listen to the actual facts and data. And this fear-mongering is what keeps us from being competitive, what keeps us from having progress. You talk a lot about people talking shit about Elon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Let's get started. Well, thanks for the support, J. Kel. I appreciate it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
There's 440 nuclear power reactors operating in 32 countries around the world. Since the time that we first had nuclear reactors, which has now been almost a century, there have been three incidents, Chernobyl, Fukushima, and Three Mile Island. At Three Mile Island, there were zero deaths. At Fukushima, there was one death, and at Chernobyl, there were 46 deaths.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
The fallout from those events has been that we shut down energy production, we shut down nuclear reactor technology, and we fearmongered our way into losing the most abundant, available, low-cost source of energy. Can I just ask a question?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
At Chernobyl, there were 15 people who got thyroid cancer, 35... operators and first responders who got radiation sickness. And then the background radiation effects, there's a lot of kind of noise around this, but it's not a significant number as you may otherwise think. Same with Fukushima.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
They had a radiation event. There's radioactive material that has covered that area that will be radioactive for a long period of time. Now, to understand what happened there and why that won't happen again requires talking about the difference in the technology between Gen 1, Gen 2, Gen 3, and Gen 4 systems. A lot of what's being rolled out now are these Gen 3 nuclear reactors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And the Gen 4 systems, which we highlighted a little while ago, do not have a meltdown possibility. We talked about this, the one that went online in China in December. Those new systems, the Gen 4 reactors, cannot melt down. You cannot have an incident like you did with the Gen 1 and Gen 2 systems. And the Gen 3 systems are abundantly safe. China is building hundreds of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It is a totally understandable science. If we want to spend the time looking at the data and understanding the engineering and the material science work and all the effort that's gone in, billions of dollars over decades, the biggest stumbling block and the biggest wall has been the fact that people have this fear-mongering activity that they tell people, just dismiss it. It's too scary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
We don't want it in our backyard. Let's move on to the next opportunity. That's what's killed it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
There are SMRs operating in China, Russia, and India today, and there's about 65 being built at this moment. And that's outside the U.S. So that's why the U.S. is kind of observing and trying to catch up and adopt these technologies that are being used by, call it, economic competitors and economic partners around the world. It's important for economic prosperity in the U.S.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
for us to have a degree of competitiveness in electricity prices. If China races towards 5 cents per kilowatt hour for electricity, and we're sitting here at 20 cents a kilowatt hour for electricity, what's that going to do to our economic competitiveness?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And you're saying solar, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Yeah, the scalability of solar in terms of getting us to a terawatt of production capacity is the limiting block, Chamath, that in order to get to a terawatt of additional... I think that's a material science problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I don't think power is the limiting... Every Navy submarine's got a nuclear reactor on board.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It's not the limiting factor in, like, for example... We're asking us to charge up every car every night with electricity, with a battery, rather than using... Let me just make my point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Where? Well, we talked about the Gen 4 one that went live in China. There's several SMRs in several countries that are active, producing power.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Here, I'll show you. They have them. I mean, we have one in India. We have one in China. I'll send you links to them here. There's about 50 of them that India is actively building right now. And they're competitive with Kairos, right? They all have kind of common design concepts, but they're different companies. Anyway, I'm just saying like they're getting rolled out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You can put power production wherever you want.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
As long as you got the copper to move it, right? You move the electrons.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
A good debate. I still love you all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
No way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
No, but 50 miles or 100 miles far away from where we use them and everyone will be safe. Would you be comfortable with putting them in the desert? Yeah, but in that case, there won't be- Okay, then we're done. That's how we're running wind and geothermal today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
We're putting these sites in random places and solar, and then we're running cable and we're producing power and delivering it to- And they're doing that with solar just because they don't want it to be an eyesore, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I'm fine laying pipe, Chamath. I'll lay that pipe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
No ditty. Sax, do you want to go visit a nuclear power plant?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
In like Oregon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You're genuflecting, Sachs. Looking after the poor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Mr. Robin Hood over here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Wow, off the rails.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It's not serious when you start like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I will comment on the California Coastal Commission ruling that was based on Elon's political tweets, which is why they stopped additional launches out of Vandenberg. First of all, how the California Coastal Commission has authority over Vandenberg and the operations just seems to me like there's something wrong. The Coastal Commission was set up with the Coastal Act in 1976 in California.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
as a way to give the beaches back to the people and the public and create a commission to regulate building along the beaches. It has since grown into effectively a much larger entity with much more authority, which potentially after the Chevron ruling in the Supreme Court may get peeled back and may get dialed down. We'll see what happens.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
But as of now, they have the ability to block launches out of Vandenberg, which they did. And in their decision They said it was because of Elon's political tweets. Again, starting at the beginning of the show about the success that they had with the Starship this week, it's incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It deserves to be recognized on the merits of what they accomplished, but to bring in his political tweets to make a decision about the progress of SpaceX and allow public space to be used to further that cause and further that activity seems to me abhorrent and it's ridiculous. And it's exactly what's wrong with the bureaucratic morass that a lot of these institutions have grown into.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It's a values decision that the state of California made in 1976. The state of California, the citizens voted and said, we want to preserve the coastline. And I think that that's a reasonable value for them to assume and vote for. And it was a majority vote. And so they established the Coastal Commission.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
But how the Coastal Commission extended into having authority over Vandenberg and launches from there for SpaceX, to me, is part of this kind of administrative growth. We see all these administrative bureaucracies get started that have a very simple objective, preserve the California coastline. But now they have authority to determine whether or not launches can happen at an Air Force base.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You can't wrap a show like that. That's just not cool. I'm just trying to wrap up so we can move on. Well, then don't make a slight comment. It's like, just do something else. Talk about something else besides Trump at the end.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I'm really excited for Saks Live from Mar-a-Lago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Jared Kushner loves me. I'm friends with everybody. Neither you nor I gave the hundreds of thousands of dollars per ticket to go to dinner with Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Yeah, coming up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It's like just waiting every day for it to drop, whatever it's going to be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Did you guys vote yet? Did you guys vote yet? I haven't. I got my ballot on my desk right here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
That is kind of like when he's in a combative reporting moment, that is the question he gets a lot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Yeah. I mean, she was basically saying that she spoke to, what was it, the city manager, and she's like, he said only a handful of buildings have been taken over. And J.D. Vance was like, what do you mean? Yeah. Only a handful of buildings? Like, isn't that anything more than zero, like, too much? Or anything more than one is obviously a problem? Like, it was just such an obvious...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
rebuttal to the narrative that they're kind of over-exaggerating a particular issue. I have no data on this, but he was very compelling in that response. I thought it was pretty strong. But I will say, generally, neither candidate seems to be introducing a new message or seems to be introducing new content.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
They're just kind of standing up, you know, kind of repeating things that they've said, showing that they can handle and manage different kind of combative reporting tactics. And that's kind of what's going on. And everyone seems to have made up their mind. I see a lot of people on both sides say, Again, this side, this person did great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
My person did great against this combative reporter and the other person did poorly against their combative reporter. And everyone's kind of biased in their view. It just feels like this election is baked and we should just go to the polls and be done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
What did you think, Freberg, though? But there's no October surprise coming out, right, Sachs, Chamath, Jake? Oh, still three weeks. Yeah, anything can happen. But there hasn't been anything, right? Like that's kind of... a shocking moment yet this month.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
There's no way to answer this with the kind of clean framing I think you're looking for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
What I saw from JD is that he wants the reporter and the people that he's talking to, and I hear this from him, to zoom out a little bit and recognize that there are significant control systems and biases that he believes and others believe are strongly affecting the election process and as a result, the election outcome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And I think that that message is lost because people want him to say, Trump lost the election, you're not admitting it, you're bad. But those people also aren't hearing the point that he's making, which is that there are biases.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And we heard these biases, by the way, with Democrats in prior elections as well, where they highlighted that they believe that there were biases with respect to misinformation being amplified on social media. And then the next election cycle, they were able to step in and influence what was being changed on those social media platforms.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Are you not going to Mar-a-Lago, Saks?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And so there's this big kind of war, media war going on through social media platforms. And I think that that's what both sides are highlighting is their big concern. And now there's this other big concern about is there appropriate voter verification that the people who are voting? And it's a question to ask that shouldn't be dismissed. It is a good question to ask. Yeah, that's a great question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
As a person who doesn't have a strong bias for a political party here, I feel like I want to hear answers to those questions. What is the structure of how the way that most people are getting their media today, which is through social media platforms? What is the mechanism for censorship? What is the mechanism for filtering for moderation and be public and transparent about it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And then separately, what are the mechanisms for for deciding who gets to vote and how they get to vote. And I think those are both really good things to ask.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Yeah. Okay, so you're maybe. Let's not commit sex. You're maybe. If you go to Mar-a-Lago, you're excused.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Well, as of last week, when J. Cal decided to turn All In into a commercial, I was actually going to do a Supergut background. We're launching Supergut nationwide in Target this week. Any Target in the United States, you can go into and pick up Supergut. You can buy... The GLP-1 booster. You can buy the prebiotic shake. I have that, actually. Is that the chocolate? Or do you have the mocha?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Oh, that would be amazing. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
The fifth, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Forget about whatever your f***ing issues are with Elon and his politics. Just to appreciate, and we can talk about why this is so important in this segment. But technically, the achievement of this skyscraper falling out of the sky and perfectly aligning itself to go into that chopstick-catching device, it is an absolute marvel of human ingenuity.