Nick
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I don't think that someone's genetics should determine race. whether or not they go to a school. And I think that their socioeconomic background, experience set, values, successes, failures are the things that they could have affected or that I think probably better define whether we want to take a moral stance on giving other people opportunity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So I think that that's a kind of good and reasonable place for us to end up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
What do you guys think about... creating a leg up for people that came from a disadvantaged socioeconomic background. So put race aside.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
but an individual that grew up in a difficult circumstance that didn't have the privilege of going to a good school or having a good education, worked hard, tried, but didn't end up with the best test scores or didn't end up with the best GPA because of the conditions they were born into.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Do you think it's appropriate to give those individuals a leg up in the application process, putting race aside, but just call it socioeconomic disadvantages?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And they went to school in Atherton.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Or a rural district with no education. Appalachia. Appalachia. Both are kind of equivalently disadvantaged or differently, but both disadvantaged. Yep.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Totally. I 100% agree. And I feel like we've used race as a heuristic for that conditional background.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And that's what makes it hard because race is not necessarily, it's certainly there's a correlation, but it's not necessarily indicative of the socioeconomic disadvantage that someone may have faced and had to overcome in order to perform and succeed at the level that they could have given their conditions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And so I certainly think that the incorporation of one's socioeconomic background should be a critical part of the application process. And it's certainly in the same in the job setting, ultimately.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, I think that would go a long way. Because we do still have a college application process, Chamath. So there are still going to be a set of criteria used to determine whether or not our kids end up getting into a specific school if we and they all kind of say, hey, it makes sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, in my work cohort, North Carolina State's a great school. We hire a ton of people from there. So that's a great school, actually.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I think the structural... Monopoly is that they then get and have the most capital, which they can then use to build facilities and support staff that can come and do core research. And so you then get all these research staff, particularly in technical fields, in science and medical fields and so on, that want to come and be on campus.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And that then creates the network effect of undergrads getting a better education because they're getting exposed to the best talent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I think you're the only Ivy Leaguer here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
But did you get exposed to it? I mean, I know when I went to Berkeley, I worked at Lawrence Berkeley Labs. I got to be exposed to Nobel laureates. It was actually like... I think particularly in my field, like I majored in astrophysics and physics, like that was a great school to get exposure and you actually had that opportunity. I think that's part of the challenge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Schools with really great graduate programs and research that goes on on campus actually can give a better educational experience to the undergrads. It's almost like you're getting these internships and these fellowships and these TAs and professors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Yeah, that's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I think that that's a lie we tell ourselves. I'm talking about applied work too much. So I'm talking about you go up to Lawrence Berkeley Lab and you work in an actual lab that does really interesting research. Okay, so my point is, if we both agree that these fundamental sciences is the key. Definitely, yeah, yeah. That's what I'm pointing out, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, I do think in a digital era, core education has commoditized. And I think most people can get most of the way there without necessarily paying 60 to $80,000 a year, and then being partnered in some way with that on the ground internship or integrated kind of program where you get actual hands on experience.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So I don't know, like, I mean, the university model, maybe does not make sense for most fields. J. Cal, what do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Where did you go to school, Jake?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I will say, I feel like my experience in the workplace is that One's college or university is completely decoupled from one's performance or ability to succeed in the workplace in an meritocratic workplace. And when I say meritocratic, I mean excluding nepotistic workplace settings and excluding demographically biased workplace settings. 100%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And if you exclude those two, it honestly does not matter what school someone went to. They could be brilliant. They could be hardworking. They could be passionate. They could be a leader. The school doesn't matter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And in fact, perhaps the corollary is true, which is the people that went to the schools that determine success generally have a very hard time succeeding in the workplace because anytime they face failure, it is a challenging circumstance for them that they are unable to overcome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And that's particularly true in entrepreneurship, that's been my experience, perhaps in the broader workplace setting, they could work well, where they're told all the time, if you do this, then you get that they do this, they get that they feel good, they succeed in that model. But in the in the real world, that's not the model.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And I think that that's a really important fact that's colored my point of view on how the higher education system actually does perform with respect to improving the quality of our workforce in the US. Separate of that, I will say that in technical fields, the research environment on certain college campuses can be incredibly, to Chamath's point,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
opportunistic for getting exposure to hands-on work that you might not otherwise get in technical field.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
That's what I mean by like the basic, the base education has been commoditized. You know, it's the hands-on experience that one gets that makes a huge difference.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, I think you and we keep... Everyone keeps trying to reduce this down to some deterministic binary system, which is like it works or it doesn't. And the truth is... that the conditions of the world are changing all the time. The news is changing all the time. People are taking action all the time. There's a shift in current events all the time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
As a result, the forecast is changing all the time. And so what a betting market or a poll does is provide a probabilistic forecast of the future. There is a probability of something happening. It is not trying to say I as a poll or I as a market am right 100% of the time or not. It is saying here's the estimated distribution of outcomes in the future.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So there is a 20% chance or an 80% chance of Shapiro, 20% chance of him not being the case. Turns out that that 20% is where Harris ended up going based on some meeting she had in some room with some group of people that we aren't privy to and that the market in that case was not privy to. What Nate Silver does, and I think people need to understand this a little bit,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
When you gather polling data, that poll has some predictive power based on how the pollsters conduct their poll, who they call, how they screen candidates for the poll, et cetera, et cetera. So different polling companies, it turns out, are better or worse at making that directional probability bet than others.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And what Nate's models do is they account for the historical performance of different pollsters and weight them differently to create a basically a multipole prediction. And so that's what his system is set up to do. And remember, he similarly doesn't give you one outcome. He gives you a distribution of outcomes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I think his simulation model has probably a thousand or 10,000 simulations that come out of it. And those simulations, he says, look, there's a 29% chance of this happening, 70%. He's not trying to say, here's what's going to happen. He's trying to give everyone a point of view on the distribution of things happening in the future, just like weather forecasting is not perfectly predictable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
It's very predictable for tomorrow. It's less predictable for three days from now. And it's very unpredictable 12 days from now. And that's how these polls also work out. And that's also how these massive mega models of polls and it's also how prediction markets work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So basically, when I read those polls... or I read the summary of the polls, I have a bias based on my interest in the outcome that says that thing is BS, that thing is right. Oh, look at this. And everyone points to this stuff for confirmation bias of their opinion and to denounce the other side. And so it all gets caught up as kind of a media angle when people use polling data.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And also fundamentally when people kind of get involved in polls and create polls, there's also the risk of bias. And part of what Nate Silver and others try and do is figure out, does that bias come out in the polling performance historically?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And that's how they kind of weight whether or not this poll is gonna be a better or worse indicator than other polls of the distribution of things that might happen in the future.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So I think it's actually a step a little bit deeper than that. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have only ever worked for government. Trump and Vance have worked in private industry. It's not just their perspective being colored by the lack of participation in the private economy, but the lack of employment in the private economy. They've never worked for a private business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
They've never been employees of a private business. They've never built a private business. I'm not trying to be disparaging, but I do think, I'm just trying to underline the point here, Chamath, which is the voters' choice is, do you want candidates that are not typically government operatives? Or do you want candidates that have spent their whole career as government operatives?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And that is effectively what the voters are going to be voting for. And they're going to make a decision, they may want to have someone that's going to lead the biggest government in history, because they've spent their whole careers in government. Or they're going to say, you know what, the biggest government in history needs to be significantly altered.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And we want to bring someone in from the outside that's worked in private industry. And that is the voter's choice. That's one way to view the voter's choice here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
That could be because he's never, it could be because he's never, it's because he's never, maybe it's because he's never had a private sector job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
It might be a feature to their ticket. And I think that there's a perception of experience in government that is deemed to make a government leader more appropriately suited to be a government leader. A career politician. Well, not even a politician, just career experience, either being employed by or working within a government, local, state, or federal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And remember, Kamala started her career at the DA's office in Alameda County before moving over to San Francisco DA's office. And then she was DA of San Francisco and then attorney general and so on and so forth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And how the free market incentivizes the creation of improved productivity, which over time translates into improved prosperity for the society within which that is taking place. That is so critical. And we saw that happen even in China in the last 30 years when the government allowed entrepreneurship to flourish in certain parts of the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
As a result, there were significant productivity gains and they brought a billion people out of poverty.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Three, two. I just had to take a leak. I just, I go outside my office and then I come back. Oh, you like a nature pee? You're a nature pee guy? Me too. I love a great nature. Well, I have this great office at home, which is like a building outside of my house.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Yeah, so just to give a little more detail to it, J. Cal, and you can actually see it, I think, Nick, if you want to pull up the page 8283. in the document. So the wealth tax is 25% of your unrealized capital gains if your net worth is above 100 million. And the first time this happens, you can split up the payments over nine years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
You have nine years to kind of pay down the assets or sell the assets or borrow the money you need to make those tax payments. After that, you can actually make those payments over five years. Those payments are ultimately treated as prepayments on taxes that will be due when you realize the capital gains.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Every year you have to report to the IRS, separated by asset class, the cost basis and the estimated value of every asset you have. You then have to determine your tax that you owe because of the difference from last year. You start out with tradable assets of stocks. Those are just valued at the end of year. Illiquid assets like private companies or real estate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
You don't have to get a valuation. If there was a financing event or some other sort of major revaluation, you have to use that value. And if there isn't, the number goes up every year by some nominal rate that will be set by the treasury. So the treasury is basically gonna tell you what they think the value of your company has gone up on an annual basis. And that's the determination evaluation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
You can file an appeal. So for all the entrepreneurs and startup people listening, There's a process that they're proposing that is basically the government saying, if you didn't get a new financing round done, the price goes up. And if you disagree with the price going up, you go back and you appeal it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So they've addressed this and that's the final provision. And what they said is that if a taxpayer is treated as what they're calling illiquid, meaning that their tradable assets, the stocks that they own or the cash that they have is less than 20% of their total wealth, then they may elect to include only the unrealized gain in their tradable assets to determine their tax liability.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
However, if you do this, you will actually have a deferral charge, which means you'll ultimately pay a higher tax on the capital gains on your illiquid asset when you do have a realized capital gain on it. So they're trying to cover the fact that people might have all their assets tied up in real estate or all their assets tied up in private company stock.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And again, I feel like we're kind of shouting into an abyss here because this is only going to affect such a small number of people. But they've really tried to write this in a way that ultimately covers the kind of pushback that you're highlighting. I'll say one other piece of pushback that's been received and tested in the Supreme Court.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
A lot of people have said that the 16th Amendment prohibits this taxation. A ruling from the Supreme Court was published June of this year. And in that particular case, there was a repatriation tax for folks that left the country. It's the Moore versus United States tax case.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And when people left the country, the government under the Tax and Jobs Act, which was passed under the Trump administration, the government had a right to go after people's assets and tax them on their unrealized gains, even after they give up their US citizenry. This was challenged to the Supreme Court, and there was a number of amicus briefs filed
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
on this case that said the government does not have the authority and Congress doesn't have the authority to actually tax on unrealized capital gains. And at the end of the day, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case. And they did not overturn on the position that the government actually did not overstep their authority to be able to tax unrealized capital gains.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So there is some Supreme Court case precedents here that indicates that this will not get thrown out on an unconstitutional ground basis. So there is a lot of conversation that this might actually become a real case. I'll pause there. And I actually have a theory I want to talk about in a minute, but it's a little bit of an extension from this point. But that's a summary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Okay, I've got a theory.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I was trying to figure out why we seem to be like embracing socialist principles and why I keep seeing more of this stuff become mainstream and almost become normalized. And I was looking at the total GDP of the United States is $25 trillion. The federal budget for next year is proposed to be 7.2 trillion. And state and local budgets combined is about 4 trillion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So if you look at government spending, it's about half of GDP now, state, local and federal, which roughly equates to about half of people in the United States are employed directly by government, or indirectly, because the government is the primary revenue source of their business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And I think that that's why this set of policies, and I'm not talking about the tax on the centimillionaires as much as a simple disregard for the fact that the United States over time, the prosperity that we've realized has been driven by a free market economy. by enterprising individuals going out and saying, there are people that are asking for things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I'm gonna figure out a way to build those things and make it for them and sell it to them. People will pay for it. They will work hard to do it. And the incentive structure in a free market has enabled productivity improvements and enabled ultimately prosperity. but we've reached a tipping point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And the tipping point is when half or more of the population begins to be employed by the government, at which point that concept is lost because now it is the government that is the employer, not one's own individual liberties and ability to go out and be enterprising. And so I think that the budget of government tipping to 50% of GDP is the reason why these policies become mainstream.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
That's my theory. And so it's a relationship of government spending as a percent of total GDP, which translates into employment. Very reasonable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I wouldn't use the term taker sacks because there are hardworking people that work for the government. And so it's not necessarily about just taking a free check or there's certainly an aspect of that to some degree. But it is about the government becoming the primary supporter of individuals in this country through employment or through subsidies or through checks or through what have you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Or private company workers that just happen to have the government as their only customer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
What's the political affiliation of like, has there ever been surveys done of employees at the federal level and what their political affiliations are?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Do you support the Trump tariffs as a solution there, Sachs? Because those are fundamentally going to be inflationary, which is going to make the costs go up for everyone. Well, I don't know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Sachs, let me ask you one more question. Do you think that the Biden administration's bills, the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act, both of which were meant to revitalize that middle class kind of industrial economy through government funding of developing new facilities in the US to onshore manufacturing, is that not a good, reasonable solution to that problem?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
It should have been renamed the Inflation Maximization Act, the IRA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
What about the chipsack?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
you know, they can't manufacture.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Buenos Aires is a beautiful, beautiful city.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
No, this is great. Sitting while urinating aids in muscle relaxation, benefiting men with tight pelvic floor muscles, or symptoms of an enlarged prostate. Sitting to pee enhances stability, reduces the risk of falls, and minimizes messiness, especially for him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I mean, I think the Fed target is 4%, which is kind of where we're at. I think we're at 4.2 or 4.3 now. And so the Fed tries to balance inflation, unemployment and rates. That's kind of the three things that they're looking at. So they make adjustments to rates. Obviously, if you take rates too low, too fast, you have an increase in inflation. So they're targeting inflation's 2%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
They're targeting unemployment's 4%. So if you take rates too high, you can certainly reduce inflation, but then the economy can contract or slow down and job cuts start to come through. So now...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
With inflation kind of supposedly approaching 2% and unemployment over 4%, the market, if you look at the trading markets, they are now estimating a 100% chance of a three-quarter of a percent rate cut by the end of 2024 and a 70% chance of a one-point rate cut by the end of 2024. So the question is, are they going to do three quarter point cuts by the end of the year?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Are they going to do a 50 basis point cut and then a 25 or a 50 and a 50? The next couple of weeks will determine which direction. And then obviously, Chairman Powell has his big speech happening on Friday.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
50 or 75% chance of a quarter point cut, 20% chance of a 50 basis point cut. and then 6% chance of no cut, which is kind of strange because the trading markets, this is obviously a prediction market, but the trading markets are showing effectively 100% chance of a three-quarter point cut by the end of 24.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Like, do they hold you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
I don't think they'll be seeing me pulling tits on the dairy farm anytime soon. That's colloquial for milking, by the way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Okay, perfect. So now do you want me to add that to my bet for this one?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
One and done is absolutely the way to go about this. Here we go. First part we've got to do here is pick out a dealer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
These definitely are real dealers. They're certainly Eastern European as far as I know. I don't know what their quality of life is like. I imagine they're warehoused somewhere and put on the tools. Now, I went with a young lassie today and she rolled bold and asked for me. So I'm going back to the boats because they've been good to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Yeah, it's gone from 15,000 to 1.3 million in this entire journey. So, yeah, a little bit nonsensical, but... Okay, this looks like a good... He looks like a hot worker.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
He's going to work for us. You're going to cop the insult live as I do it. All righty. It is day 15, going to Blackjack and betting $1.73 I've got. We have a $14,000 bet going on the line for me personally, but I actually have some absolute legends with me today. I'm betting for the besties from the All In podcast as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
They're going to bring the luck, having been rolled, bowled, and arsed by a young lassie yesterday. So $34,000 goes on the line. Oh, no, no, you guys want $10,000, right? Not $20,000? Jeez, I better not take it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
did. 24,000 is going on the line. Aldela looks like the kind of bloke who stops at red lights playing GTA. We won't hold that again. I will not, if you will. I need to see good cards. Jackets! Jackets!
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Gentlemen, that has really just happened. You've just turned 10 into 25. Holy. Holy cow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Mate, I'm actually breaking my own rules for you guys. I filmed today's hand, day 14, but I'm going to film tomorrow's hand for you guys right now. It'll roll out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
We just keep rolling every week.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
I wouldn't have to run anything if I could just play one hand of blackjack with you guys and I'd land jack ace every week. That is unbelievable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
How about I go first class to the Orland Summit? Now there's a guy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Correct. Yep. Kiwi living in Calgary. Been here since September 2022. The missus and I.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
From Taranaki, so West Coast, North Island, certainly not somewhere, it's not a holiday destination for certain if you're going there. It's like dairy farming country. It's beautiful, but it's off the beaten path. So, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Gentlemen, what an absolute pleasure to walk amongst some goddamn greats. Let me see if I can put a bit of pep in your step with a one-time blackjack hand to kickstart one of the greatest podcasts on earth. It is, I can't confirm this is not AI. You did this? We're going to rock and roll proper today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Do you know what? We holidayed here, my fiance and I, May 2022. And we thought it was just going to be a holiday then back to the farm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
But I guess we had that COVID cabin fever like the rest of the world and loved our time here so much that we just decided before we even finished the holiday that we cracked on to getting our visas and got back, sold up my livestock and leased the farm back to my parents. And and made the move. And we haven't looked back.