Trevor
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Do we have Freeburg? Did he drop off? Oh, here he is. Okay. Freeburg's back. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And that is what the Supreme Court decision did. You cannot take race into account. Harvard had some weird thing, Friedberg, where personality was one of the vectors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Trevor, what's your take on this? You know, moving back to a meritocracy and a colorblind application process. Not being able to use race in admissions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Sax, any thoughts from you on this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
All right, Labor Department has revised down the job growth numbers as a number of members of this panel predicted. The BLS updated its non-farm payroll stats, downgrading actual job growth to around 30% versus what was originally reported. This means the U.S. economy created around 818,000 fewer jobs over the 12 months leading up to March 2024.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
The number was originally reported as 2.9 million new jobs created, and it's more like 2.1. The Labor Department updates and revises its stats frequently. It gives disclaimers. But this is the largest and most significant revision since 2009, after the Great Depression. recession.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So I like to go in the garden and take a breath of fresh air and just, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And so the biggest downgrade came in the field, not surprisingly, of professional and business services with 358,000 jobs lost over the last year. We see that in all the stats of different tech companies and businesses, finance companies doing layoffs. Other fields that revise their numbers, leisure, hospitality, manufacturing, retail, makes sense, and a little bit in transportation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Yeah, there might be the most notable schools historically, but they're not necessarily the ones that are... They're the biggest brands.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Wait, Berkeley's Ivy League? You went to Berkeley?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Yeah, it's very interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I went to Fordham University at night. I got in three weeks before. Did you get an undergrad degree from Fordham? Yeah, Fordham. I was going to either, I had taken the New York. What was your degree in? Psychology. I was going to go into the NYPD. I was about to get accepted at 18 years old, 17 years old, 18 years old. And then I decided at the last minute to go to Fordham at night.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I had to work in order to pay for it. So it took me four and a half years, but I did like almost a full credit load at night. And then I was going to go into John Jay for criminal justice and get my forensic degree and then join the FBI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So I was in the process of applying to the FBI and then the internet happened and I started a magazine about the internet and it went in a totally different direction. But the co-op stuff, I remember when we went to Waterloo, we did a speaking gig there years ago, Chamath, and I was very taken with the students there and their drive. And so I think that's the key piece.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Here's a couple charts for you before we go and get some feedback. Civilian unemployment rate seasonally adjusted. As you can see, since the great financial crisis, we went from 10% all the way down to well below four, and that's where we sit today. USA Today chart here of gains and losses since 1980.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And what I did in venture capital, because I needed to have a team of about eight people screening all the companies we get and the applications. So I just made my own training program and I hire a lot of people in Canada. to do it and basically they do five meetings a day. They write up coverage.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I made an entire framework and I'm doing professional development because I found a lot of the top people from these brand name schools were entitled. They didn't want to do 25, 35 meetings a week with founders. And I just found these other students from Waterloo and other colleges like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And I've trained them in my framework for these are the 13 qualities we look for in investing in a startup. And these are the 25 red flags. And I've now got seven people. We did 110, 120 meetings one week recently. And so it's just much better to train them ourselves and make your own training program, I believe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And what was his reason? Because of motivation?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I mean, we had Coleman Hughes on, and I think he had a very good perspective on it, which is like maybe starting with earlier education is where you could probably solve some of these problems a little bit more effectively.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Obviously, that massive drop you see there of minus 9.3 million jobs was COVID with the big quick rebound of 7.3. So overall, the country's in great shape. Sax, your thoughts on the revision? You obviously made note of this when we went through the numbers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
A lot of this comes down to motivation. At a certain point, a person has to be motivated to put in a lot of hours and become excellent at whatever their chosen profession is. I think I talked about it previously. When we started talking about macroeconomics here, I took a macroeconomics course at MIT. on their website or on YouTube rather.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Like there's incredible that this stuff is all out there and anybody can take any of these courses for free.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
MIT 1401 principles in microeconomics, supply and demand. I mean, it was like incredible. And you know, this is stuff I just didn't ever get exposed to. And I was able to do it for free. I listened to the course actually twice and I took notes on it. I really got a lot out of it. All right. Listen, more stuff on the docket.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Anybody else have final thoughts here before we go into the election stuff and taxes?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
All right. Decision 2024. Get ready for a bit of chaos here, folks. The DNC is underway as we tape. We tape on Thursdays, as you know. I think Kamala will give her acceptance speech tonight. DNC pulled out all of their all-stars, Michelle Obama, Barack, Hillary, Bill Clinton, Oprah, and Tim Walz spoke last night. Most people felt he had a pretty strong showing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Our guy Nate Silver, friend of the pod, has the election as essentially neck and neck. We're in coin toss territory here. I think it's going to come down to the debates. I'm interested to hear what my besties think. Here is the Silver Bulletin, his new publication. He's not at 538 anymore, just Kamala at 47, Trump at almost 45. And this all will come down to the swing states.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I think, as we all know, he's got a really great interactive chart over there. He's got Harris with clear leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Virginia. I think those were about 68 electoral college votes. Trump with clear leads in Georgia and Florida. My Lord, Florida is 29 or 30 electoral college votes. That's a lot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
The toss-up states, Nevada with the tipping and no tax there, but that's only six. North Carolina. has been flip-flopping back and forth from Harris to Trump. Those two are worth 24. So we swung from many pats to victory, basically a certain victory for Trump with versus Biden to now a toss-up. This is an interesting chart here, Sachs. I want to get your
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
take on which is the polling averages, I think you said last week or the week before that we would see the Harris bump reverse. And that's exactly what's happened. The month over month change is dramatic, as you see in this table. But the week over week change, so in the month change, you have Democrats running the table in all the swing states.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And then you look at the weekly change, the opposite. In the last week, the Republicans have not caught up, but made significant gains all between a half A percentage point and a point, with the exception of North Carolina, which, as I stated earlier, is a toss-up. Your thoughts on the election right now, Sachs, before we get into the issues, just on the numbers here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
What do you think, Chamath? Do you trust these betting markets? Because there's so much at stake at this election, right? I mean, people are pouring money into both campaigns. It's really contentious. People see it as existential on both sides. And then you have these prediction markets that have low tens of millions or hundreds of millions of dollars being bet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Could these not be, you know, influenced? Do you trust them? Because we are seeing this is the first time these prediction markets have become a major discussion point because they're businesses, obviously. But people are really getting into them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And I wonder if they could be manipulated, or if you think you trust them, I guess is the way I'm asking you, because we've had this discussion a bit offline.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Wasn't the betting market, we talked about this two weeks ago, Shapiro was like 80% or something. So yeah, it's fairly obvious, Freiburg, that may be... these betting markets are a little bit entertainment, but maybe directionally correct, because they also did start to predict the hot swap. So what do you think, Freeberg, about these betting markets, prediction markets?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And Freeberg, people have a lot of emotion in these models when it comes to politics, whereas if you were looking at gambling or the odds of winning a poker hand, we all would be like, oh, you have a 30% chance of winning, or a 10% or an 8%, you're going to hit two adders. There's emotions both ways, J. Cal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And Zach, if people were to lose a poker hand that they were 60% to win or two thirds to win, you know, they would be like, okay, that makes total sense. When Hillary Clinton lost to Trump the first time, people lost their minds. And he was pretty clear, right? He was, I think, 65, 35. And people are like, wait, you said it's 65%. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Your thoughts on just the accuracy of polls generally and then what you heard here in terms of the betting markets. How do you look at these two things that are taking up a lot of space right now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So, for example... Yeah, I have some numbers here, too, if you want to hear them. $653 million in political bets are currently being placed across the top 10 betting markets. And all of the markets on PolyMarket, which includes things outside of politics, are $320 million. So they are the big fish in this, I think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
They're the leader, but it's still a very thin amount of money, to your point, Sachs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Chamath, where do you put the third category here, which would be the oddsmakers in Vegas? Because they're looking at everything. What do you think about the oddsmakers in Vegas? Would you give them any credence?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, I mean, because people are looking at the tea leaves. There are reasons it matters. These markets do have an impact on the voting public because... The media covers them. Donors cover them. Voter turnout is impacted by the polls. And then there's these like... you know, various psychological phenomenon like the underdog impacts or bandwagon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So you could have, if people perceive at one point Trump is the underdog, maybe more people turn out and then people who, you know, if Trump was winning versus Biden so much, they might become complacent and you get some sort of surprise there. So they do have actual impact on the voting public.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Yeah, I want to talk about that policy. Sacks, I wanted to get your take on this Trump's VP pick JD Vance is now the least popular VP pick in modern history. People said the same thing also about walls. And that was a Terrible pick. Here's your chart on JD. And here's the historical chart. John Edwards. Man, I remember him. He was plus two in net rating. Tim Waltz, plus five.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Mike Pence, plus five. Kamala, when she was VP, plus three. But JD Vance is absolutely, he's below Sarah Palin, which I guess takes Everett. What's your take on the VP picks and the impact they're having here? Because it's a major topic of discussion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I love the J.D. pick, you know, venture capitals, business guy, well-written, well-spoken.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
To unpack what you're saying here, there was a report. Tim Walz has no financial holdings. He has no stocks, no bonds, no mutual funds, no real estate, nothing, no cryptocurrency. This is what you're referring to, Yachima.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
The level of like literally owning nothing. And I guess, Freeberg, to your, I'll let you take it from there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
That's an interesting framing. And another framing might be free bird. I love that. Hey, it's an interesting framing. Here's another framing. I don't, you're a young person. I can't own a home. They're too expensive. I don't have any equity. I'm getting ground down. I own, I owe a bunch of student loans.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Tim Walls feels more like the experience I'm having as a millennial where I can't afford a home, where I don't have equity, where I'm constantly trying to pay off my bills. And The finance, what we'll say is like, hey, this guy's not very financially astute. He doesn't even own his own home.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, he's been a teacher, right? So maybe people say, you know what? I feel, I identify more with Tim Walz. And I think that's actually what might be happening here. Public school teacher, right? Yeah. Yeah, right. Yeah. Which is a noble thing to be. And I think there's probably a large percentage of the country who feels like they're not part of the equity economy. They don't own a home.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
They don't own equities. And they have been shut out from this. And all these rich people like Trump and JD Vance and venture capitalists are running the table on them. And I think that might be why we're seeing, even if the four of us disagree with it, we might be seeing someone like Tim Walz actually being a feature.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Yeah. It's generating, it's triggering people is what you're saying. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Sachs, what do you think of this framing? You have two candidates who are career civil servants who have dedicated their life to that, but who in one case doesn't own his home, doesn't own any equities. In the other case, Kamala does have a bunch of equity and some private wealth versus the capitalists. It looks like this actually is an interesting framing, socialism versus capitalism.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
What's your thought on that framing?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
They created a middle class.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So Chamath, let me go to you next, because you pointed out that these numbers seemed a little fugazi fugazi. But we have 162 million people record employed in the country. This number, if it's 162, you take out 800, it's 161. This is what the Fed has been trying to do to cool off inflation, right? We needed to see a little bit less employment, and that's part of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
It's just a question mark for me. Yeah. 58% of Americans own equities. And that includes like retirement accounts. So it's not like they're actively day trading. And so, you know, that does actually, Sachs, paint an interesting picture where maybe the Democratic Party now, which they've referred to themselves, Bernie and Elizabeth Warren, as a socialist, as socialist Democrats.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Maybe this is like part of their feature is to appeal to that large swath of people who don't own their homes, who don't have kids. And, you know, to JG's point about cat ladies and to, you know, who don't own homes, don't have kids and don't have equities. What are your thoughts on that, Sax? Is that maybe how these parties are starting to shape up in the modern era?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Tax the rich is a recurring theme. And that's actually a great jump off point here because the big news in our circles this week and on social media was and some of the group chats. is that Harris has reportedly backed some of Biden's really out there tax plans, which include a proposed 25% wealth tax on people with over $100 million in assets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Important to note that this would be very hard to pass because getting these tax increases, you'd have to get through Congress, et cetera. But let's just talk about what the proposal is because it's out there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
in Biden's 2025 tax plan, which the campaign has said to Semifor, which is a niche publication, like a newsletter company, that, and I'll just give the quote, in a little notice portion of its Friday analysis of Harris's new economic plans, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget wrote that her campaign said,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So I guess the silver lining here is if we are revising these numbers down, that would give more of an indication that we've slowed the economy, correct?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
it endorsed the suite of revenue options included in President Joe's recent budget. And that's the FRB report said, quote, the campaign has communicated to us that Vice President Harris continues to support all of the revenue raising provisions in the president's 2025 budget. So there is continuity confirmed between Harris and Biden's plans.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I'll just explain as simply as I can what this extreme plan says, and then I'll get Chamath your take on it. Biden's proposed 2025 tax plan includes the following. 25% unrealized cap gain tax on those with over 100 million assets. 28% corporate tax rate. Right now it's 21. Trump had proposed a 15% rate and quadrupling the stock buyback tax to 4%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
That's when a company buys their own shares as opposed to putting it to work in the market. The stock buyback tax was created as Biden's Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. It's just 1% if you want to buy back your shares like Apple and some other companies do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
But let's unpack the 25% unrealized cap gains, because that seems to be, you know, the most, let's say, I don't want to say triggering, but the one that's triggered the most number of people. There's 5,000 people who fit into that category. What do you think, Chamath, of this proposal? Fair? Unfair?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Anti-American?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And you're referring to removing, I think you're implying people might be able to move to other places and create companies there. Is that what I'm reading into it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
You already have a bunch of hedge fund manners moving over there, right, Shamath? People are starting to buy apartments in Abu Dhabi.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And that was during World War II and the post-war era. Freeberg, your thoughts on this proposal specifically, which impacts a very small number of people, although maybe a high percentage here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Let's pause there for a second, Freeberg, because this is super important, I think, to the audience here. Somebody has a startup company. It becomes worth $10 billion. It has $100 million in revenue. It's doing well. It's losing money. 409 valuation comes in. founder owns 25%, co-founders own 25% each. They own two or $3 billion in stock.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Now you've got an illiquid founder who owns $3 billion in stock. Company's not going public. There's no secondary market. What would happen to that founder? Would
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Is this a seizure of assets in your mind? Is it constitutional in your mind? Two questions there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
This is going to put so much cold water on the entrepreneurial market. It's going to make people just have less liquidity to invest in things. I think this is going to be disastrous. It's going to cause a lot of people to retire early because they just don't want to deal with all this. Well, Friedberg, what's your theory?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Oh, theory. Here we go. Good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
He's taking a stray.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And it could easily, Chima, that's a real head scratcher to me. This could easily be crowdsourced or we could pull data from a lot of different places. Obviously, they pull some data from employment roles. But I remember you had a startup. I can't remember the name of it. But you had crowdsourced.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
All right, everybody. This has been another amazing episode of the All In Podcast. Socialism is garbage and it turns into communism. No, I'm exacerbated. I mean, if Kamala doesn't get out there and start doing some interviews and explaining herself, I'm out. I mean, I'm out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I mean, it may have already happened. Anyway. Anyway. Oh my God, that's so funny.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
No, I mean, I just, we need to get Kamala on this program here. Face the music. Let's go. You want to run for president? Come on all in and let's talk about it. If she's not going to answer basic questions, it's disqualifying for me. Who's trying to get her? Is anyone trying to? She wants on it. I mean, she wants on it. But I mean, we'd love to have her on. We'd love to have JD on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
We'd love to have Waltz on. Let's go. Let's have some real conversations about this stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
People were going around and taking pictures of the price of tomatoes in different places and then putting it into a database and organizing, I think, for hedge funds and other folks, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
By the way, this happened in France. I mean, they literally did this. They tried it. A lot of French citizens all of a sudden became citizens of Russia.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Love you guys. So everybody, thanks for coming to the All In Podcast, episode 193. We'll see you next time. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And now, the plugs. The All In Summit is taking place in Los Angeles, September 8th, 9th, and 10th. You can apply for tickets, summit.allinpodcast.co. And you can subscribe to this show on YouTube. Yes, watch all the videos. Our YouTube channel has passed 500,000 subscribers. Shout out to Donnie from Queens. Follow the show, x.com slash the all in pod. TikTok, the all in pod.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Instagram, the all in pod. LinkedIn, search for all in podcast. And to follow Chamath, he's x.com slash Chamath. Sign up for his weekly email. What I read this week at chamath.substack.com and sign up for a developer account at console.grok.com and see what all the excitement is about. Follow Sachs at x.com slash davidsachs and sign up for Glue at glue.ai. Follow Friedberg, x.com slash friedberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And Ohalo is hiring. Click on the careers page at ohalogenetics.com. I am the world's greatest moderator, Jason Calacanis. If you are a founder and you want to come to my accelerators and my programs, founder.university, launch.close.apply to apply for funding from your boy, JCal, for your startup. And check out athenowow.com.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
This is the company I am most excited about at the moment, athenowow.com, to get a virtual assistant for about $3,000 a month. I have two of them. Thanks for tuning in to the world's number one podcast. You can help by telling just two friends. That's all I ask. Forward. this podcast to two friends and say, this is the world's greatest podcast. You got to check it out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
It'll make you smarter and make you laugh, laugh while learning. We'll see you all next time. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Wait, wait.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Okay, Freeberg, here's a chart for you to comment on. Maybe we open the aperture here. Total employment and unemployment here in the United States, as you can see, you know, since the 80s, population has grown and the number of people employed has continued to grow. Labor participation, it kind of peaked in the 90s in the Clinton era, and it's come down a bit since then.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
But overall, what do you think of the health of the economy and employment?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And Sachs, here's the dramatic Fed. We always talked about them kind of getting on this a little bit late. But you can see here, man, what a ramp up in 2022, where we were basically at a quarter point and they just added a quarter point of 50 bps all the way up to 5.33, where we've been flat. Inflation, obviously, we have the two handle now. So now we start the process of going down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And I think people generally believe 25 bps at a time will be their pattern coming down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Sacks has a urinal. Whenever Sacks gets a new home, he puts urinals in. That's how much of a man he is. Sacks, how does your staff hold your body while you pee?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So either mission accomplished, or we'll see if we have a soft landing, hard landing, or something in between. Most people feel like it's going to be soft with a little bit of bumps. It seems direction correct to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Yeah. And it doesn't seem like either of the incoming administrations really cares about spending. Seems like we're going to be in still big money spending mode, independent of who wins. We'll see how long that can last as a country. And then we talked a little bit about the Supreme Court decision last year around affirmative action and It turns out now MIT has released their data.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
It's getting a lot of buzz online. Here's a chart. Basically what you can take from this chart, and this is people self-identifying at MIT, and the buzz is that Asian Americans have gone from 41% to 47%, and those gains came on a percentage basis from a decline in the number of Black and Latino students coming in. Here's the chart, as you can see.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So people are wondering about, I guess, the fairness of this. And I guess you could have either one of two positions, Chamath. Asian students were being penalized for a long time. Or now, I guess you could believe that Latin and Black students are being impacted negatively about this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So I'm not sure what your take is, but it's obviously moving to more of a meritocracy, according to the people at MIT.