David Sacks
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
Let's let John jump in here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think... I think that what's interesting, I mean, you and Jeff, I think arrive at similar conclusions about Ukraine, but different ones on China, right? Because Jeff is an economist and I think sees the world in fundamentally positive some ways based on the potential for trade, economics basically.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
Whereas you see the world as more of a zero sum game based on the balance of power. Why don't you just explain that difference?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
So, Jeff, let me set it up for Jeff here. So, Jeff, you and John, I think, agree that the game on the board is power seeking. I think what John is saying is there are smart ways and dumb ways to pursue power. Containing China is a smart way. What we're doing in Ukraine is a dumb way. Whereas it seems like you're saying that all power seeking behavior is bad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
That's not the game we should be playing. We should somehow opt out of that. Is that kind of where you're going?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
John, what's your thought on that? Do you see any difference between Republicans and Democrats?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
So John, can we contain China, prevent them from becoming a regional hegemon without directly defending Taiwan? I mean, isn't that where the rubber meets the road?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
We only have a minute left, so I want to give it to John. I just want to ask. He had a question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
Sorry, I'm calling an audible. We've got five minutes, so before we leave this topic, John. Your book is called The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. You clearly understand the tragic aspect of how great power rivalry, great power competition can lead to disaster. What Jeff is saying is we're now in the nuclear age and it's going to lead to nuclear war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
So do we have to be on this path or is there a way off of it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
I'm excited for this panel. We're going to talk about foreign policy. We have, I think, two of the most interesting, eminent, renowned thinkers about foreign policy, Professor John Mearsheimer from University of Chicago and Professor Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia. So great to have you guys here today. It's a big world, and there's a lot of things happening, so let's just jump into it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
The big news over the past week was that Dick Cheney endorsed Kamala Harris for president. I think for people who see the world in partisan political terms, this might have been surprising, but I don't think that you guys were that surprised by that. Do you see an underlying logic to this? Jeff, why don't I start with you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
You got no M&A happening right now in tech. The real estate guys, they can't get loans because the interest rates are through the roof and there's a credit crunch. So I think one of the common themes we just heard across that dinner was that it was just so hard to do business right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Can I shift the conversation to foreign policy just for a minute, just to make sure we get time to talk about foreign policy? Is that okay with you guys? Yes. Mr. President, I've really appreciated your comments saying that you want to bring a peace deal to the war in Ukraine so that people stop dying. And I wholeheartedly agree with that sentiment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
But I've seen that Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, is talking about actually putting NATO troops or French troops in Ukraine as potentially a next step. And that could be a tripwire for more NATO troops coming in. Can you guarantee that no matter what, you're not going to put American boots on the ground in Ukraine? Is that something you can say definitively?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I heard you have a pretty nice house, too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
And I guess maybe a good place to start would just be, you know, what's the number one thing or maybe the top three things that you would do to kind of get things moving again? you know, if you're reelected?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Yeah, the average age of their soldier is like 43 now. So they're literally running out of people. To make a peace deal there, would you be willing to take NATO expansion off the table if that's what it took to get the Russians and the Ukrainians to make a deal? Would you be willing?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I 100% agree. And, you know, it turns out that the month before the Russians invaded, Blinken told Lavrov that the administration was not only going to bring Ukraine into NATO, but that they thought it was okay for the United States to put nuclear weapons in Ukraine. So no wonder the Russians hit the roof. I mean, you talk about provocation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
He doesn't like to negotiate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
It's only worth $18 million, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Mr. President, I know you're running out of time here. So we haven't had a chance for you to speak to the border situation yet. So I want to give you a chance to address that because that's always been really one of your main issues since always, since 2016. You wanted to build a wall. The Democrats did everything they could to thwart that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
You built the wall, but then Biden left a bunch of holes in it and then sold off the parts for scrap metal. And now we've had the problem and repealed your executive order. So I want to give you a chance to speak to that. One piece I want to just add in as a follow-up question is a lot of tech CEOs say, if we fix the border, can we get more H-1Bs for tech workers?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Can you address that as well as what's going on at the border?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I never understood why the wall was so controversial. You know, every country needs to have a border and a wall is a really good way to enforce a border. I never understood why they were so animated about stopping you from building the wall after you ran on that issue in 2016. They held you up for years with litigation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
And then, like you said, they wouldn't just finish the little pieces of it and they left big holes in it. And I think you're right. The only conclusion is they want an open border. I mean, how else do you explain it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
That's fantastic. Yeah, that's great. Well, I think we all wholeheartedly agree with that. Being in the tech industry, we understand the importance of that. They're telling us that you have to go to dinner, Mr. President. So thank you so much for spending so much time with us. We really appreciate it. It's been great having this conversation with you. I'm sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
All right. I think that's smart. Well, your team is telling us that they need you to go to a dinner, Mr. President. Obviously, we could keep going for hours and hours, but it's been great to have you. It's been great to have you for the last hour here. And it's been great getting to know you with the dinner that we did. And we hope that you'll come back on our show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Podcasts are getting bigger and bigger. So hopefully in your second term, you'll come on here and talk to us again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I have some blockers. He crushed your questions. No, he crushed your questions. Admit it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
He was very unequivocal about that, really clear that he would not do a national ban, really clear that the states would decide. And furthermore, he understood that the states are deciding. There's been a bunch of referenda at the state level. Yes. And they are generally coming out on the pro-choice side.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
And he indicated that he understood that some of the votes are not turning out the way the people may have thought.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
He's going to respect democracy on that issue. So I think he nailed that question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
was palatable and you know there's a lot of things i agree with them on and the january 6th stop we didn't get to so apologies to the audience on that i know a lot of people have feelings about it but you know you can only get so much from 50 minutes of interview i think you did a great job a whole town hall on that issue i mean quite frankly i felt like we dealt with a lot of substance here so but chamath i agree with you he was really clear on ukraine he went further than he has in the past in the past he said that he'll get a peace deal very quickly and then he wants the people to stop dying but in this interview he went further he said that if
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
France or other European countries send in troops, the US definitely will not participate in that. We are not going to send American boots on the ground. The Biden administration, I don't think, has said that definitively the way that President Trump said it. Moreover, he understood that a major cause of the war was the desire to bring Ukraine into NATO. And I've never heard
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I've never heard anyone in the administration say that. And he went further and said they keep saying these provocative things about, you know, even now they keep repeating that Ukraine's going to be part of NATO. So he understood he understood the provocation there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
You know, I had a couple of reactions to that. So number one is I thought it was interesting how he reacted to the question about Larry Summers because he knows Larry Summers and he actually said several very complimentary things towards him. So you may not agree with him on everything, but he said that Larry had gotten a bunch of things right. And he's an interesting guy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
And Larry did get the inflation call right. Remember, at the very beginning of the Biden administration. So it was interesting. I thought that President Trump handled that question very tactfully. I think it's not like he wasn't looking to attack anyone or anything like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Yeah, just on the second piece on the deficit, you know, Jake, how you asked a pretty tough question there, where you basically said, look, your debt has grown as much under your first term as it has under Biden. Remember that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
But I think he had a pretty good answer, which was that look, at the first year of COVID, we were dealing with you know, a potential depression. I don't know if you mentioned that the economy, GDP was down 30%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
So he basically explained that we had to do that. But then after that, we shouldn't have kept going. And I do think that Trump is just not as big a spender as Biden. I mean, look, Biden's been in Washington for 50 years. He thinks government's the answer for everything. He loves spending money. And he spent trillions on COVID even after we didn't need to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
So I get the sense that Trump was a reluctant spender. I'm not saying he didn't spend. Whereas Biden, I think, is an eager spender. Yeah, I disagree.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I think if Trump had the power by himself to rein in spending, I think he would. I think the issue is that the president by himself can't do that much.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
No, I think what he said was they didn't want the information out. Yeah, we should be clear about that because it could be quoted out of context.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
You don't want to spend the money in China, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Well, I thought that his response on that was similar to a lot of his responses, which is he did not take the edgy position that he was sort of being teed up to take. I mean, kind of like same thing with like the Larry Summers thing. You know, he had mild criticism, I thought, for Fauci, but he didn't go scorched earth. at all on Fauci there. And I didn't trust him. He said, yeah, absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Nobody, nobody trusts Fauci. You asked him whether Fauci should be prosecuted. He did not take the bait on that. That's my point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
He's a counterpuncher. I don't think he hits people unless they hit him first. I mean that's his pattern. But look, I agree with Chamath here that my overall take on this – and look, my position is clear because I wrote – A long post on X endorsing Trump a couple weeks ago. But everything I heard here in this interview is consistent with the reasons why I stated I want to support him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
He clearly favors a pro-growth agenda. He wants to keep taxes low. and reasonable. He wants to reduce regulations. He wanted to increase the number of H-1Bs, get the dream team over here for tech while sealing the border, while cutting down on crime in blue cities. He talked about how crime was out of control. He wants to negotiate peace deals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
He, I think, understands very well why we have this war going on in Europe. Overall, I heard a lot of reassuring things and I didn't hear anything that I would put in the category of a grievance or a desire for revenge. You know, the media is trying to portray him as like seeking vengeance or something like that. Well, that's because he says he is didn't get didn't get that over and over again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Maybe the same clip played over and over again on CNN.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Well, I mean, I think Chamath is right that with respect to the Middle East, And I think his position isn't perfectly clear because it's not only about Iran in the Middle East, right? But the truth of the matter is politically, I don't know that he could say more. And, you know, I think that's just a very, very tough issue where you're bound to alienate and polarize one side or the other.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
And so I think he's sort of definitely walking a tightrope there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
But maybe he's right. You know, like when I hear Trump talk, what I hear is someone who's a dealmaker. He was a dealmaker in business. Now he's a dealmaker politically. He's willing to have conversations with anybody. There was even a moment when he's talking about Iran where he said maybe he could have worked out a deal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
But in any event, he's somebody who I think is willing to negotiate, which I think is a positive thing because when's the last time Biden negotiated anything? He doesn't seem interested at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Yeah, that was a good example, I think. Energy, he pointed to the EPA. The right things are on his radar screen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Thanks so much for sitting down with us, Mr. President. The All In Pod is basically the four of us having conversations. It's kind of a spectrum of different views. We got sort of like a little bit of some Fox News and then some MSDNC at the same time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
And the tracks are in the middle of nowhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Of these two men, Trump or Biden, which one do you think is going to be more skeptical of big government spending and which one is going to be more interested in being conducive to the private sector solving problems? I mean, to me, there's no comparison. Well, which one do you think? Obviously, Trump is – all of his instincts are let's empower the private sector. Let's cut regulations.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Let's make taxes reasonable. Let's get the smartest people in the country. Let's have peace deals. Let's have growth. I believe –
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Maybe it's a psychological problem that a lot of people have. It doesn't mean we should have a worse president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
We invited Biden on here too, and we're waiting breathlessly for him to accept the invitation. You got to give Trump credit for coming on the show, like he said, and took all questions. So you got to give Trump a lot of credit for that. But Freeberg, to your point about the TDS for a second, Look, when Biden ran in 2020, he promised a return to normalcy. That was basically his sales pitch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
We had just gone through COVID. There were a lot of people who had TDS or were tilted by Trump. And what Biden said is we're going to have normalcy. What actually happened? Well... I think Biden began this incredibly partisan and vindictive program of lawfare, of trying to prosecute not just Trump, but a lot of other people. We had the border basically opened up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I mean, Biden repealed all those executive orders on day one and did create those holes in the wall. There was absolutely no reason for that. We had this war in Ukraine that was easily avoidable if they just said the right things back in 2021. And I mean, I could go on. I mean, on On the issue of tech, like we talked about, everyone feels frozen right now. Crypto can't get a regulatory framework.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
No one can do M&A. So have we gotten the normalcy that we were promised? I don't think so. And on the other hand, what I heard from Trump in this interview was like he was sort of softened. He did not go scorched earth, even when he invited him to. He did not... Say, I will agree. I will agree with you on that. He had nice words to say about Larry Summers. Yes, he was.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
You know, I thought this was a very moderate sounding Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
We'll let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Yeah, absolutely. Anyway, Chamath and I, we had a great time at the fundraiser that we did a couple weeks ago. I think it turned out great. And I heard the Winklevoss brothers are actually announcing that they're donating a million dollars each in Bitcoin to you tomorrow. So I think that's a great result to come out of it as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
You know, and I think maybe this is a good place to start in our conversation is, you know, one of the things I think we heard a lot at that dinner was just the difficulty that people in business were having under this Biden administration. You got the crypto guys who just want a framework. They just want... the government to tell them how to operate and they can't get that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
All right, everybody, welcome back. It's hot swap summer here at the all in podcast, episode 186 of the world's number one podcast, calling in from the home office in Italy, Chamath Palihapitiya. How are you doing, sir?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Or it could be like a Biden moment circling the dead. Oh, God, that's too dark.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I think the donor class doesn't want to lose.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
He's not fit to serve on his term.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
First female president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
We are? We're in the war or we're providing weapons?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let's get Chamath in for the final word here. Chamath, your thoughts on what's going to happen? Make your prediction between now and September. What do you think's the mid game here before we get to the end game?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I honestly don't know, but I think that we're in a precarious place where things are going to get worse. Biden actually approved private contractors now going into Ukraine and starting to fight. Americans will be on the battlefield as of, I think this was just a few days ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
For folks who are interested in meeting the other lunatics who listen to this pod, if you have no money and no budget, you can come to one of the 50 meetups that are currently happening around the world next week on Thursday, July 11, go to all in podcast.co slash meetups all in podcast.co slash meetups, you can host or you can join them. It's for $0.00.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
If you remember the movie Wag the Dog, I think that it starts to create all these weird scenarios where people will want to create major distractions to try to keep the evidence and the attention away from this core issue that after the debate, everybody is focused on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think the reality is that if you were accused, if any of you were accused of being mentally incapacitated, what you would probably do is go on every single talk show, go on every single news show, go on every single podcast. Press conference.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You would just do so much public-facing work so as to completely dispel this idea so that you could firmly say it was a cold, although now this week it's jet lag, it was jet lag, whatever. Debate prep. the time of day, whatever it was, you'd be able to just completely take the wind out of the sails.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think we're still getting only a controlled dribble of information and access to the President of the United States. So he's going to be on Stephanopoulos, he's going to show up for a NATO meeting. And so you're only seeing dribs and drabs of somebody who now a lot of people think is not in a position not just to run, but let alone run the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You said last week, Democratic Party will have a meaningful reset.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Still thinking that, Shaman? The issue that the Democrats will have to face is the person that they probably want to run is someone different than Kamala Harris. And the problem that they're going to have to confront is there's a part of it, which is fundraising. And I do think that David's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
There was an article in the FT where one of the op-ed writers said they're in this sort of identity politics trap in sorts because they will have to run her no matter what. And even if somebody did show up with the financial wherewithal, and I think Freebrook actually brings up a really interesting thought experiment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
If there was somebody that could take the democratic mantle, who could completely self-fund their campaign, But he happened to be just a white man. What would the Democrats do relative to Kamala Harris? And I think that they would be in knots around what to do. Because of the identity politics issue. I think they have made it an important issue, this idea of inclusiveness as they've defined it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Got it. So it sets up for, I think, a very complicated summer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The other thing you have to keep in mind is how the electoral college works and how the ballot system works is that you don't have infinite time. You have to get all of this wrapped up and cinched up by the middle of August at the latest. And so we're very much on like a four or six week shot clock.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I don't think the Democrats are doing what they need to do in order to completely take the wind out of the sails of this narrative that Biden is not prepared or capable. And the only way that you can do that is by having him appear 24 by seven in real time in front of hundreds of millions of people as often as possible. And they're just not doing it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And so since they're not doing it, they have ample time to do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
He's, yeah, he's obviously- And by the way, the other problem that it creates is that you're starting to see some of these fissures inside of the team. There was a really charged article from Axios that dropped which basically said that there are three people that have cordoned off access to the president. It named Jill Biden, Ann Tomasini, and some other person.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And my initial thought when I read this was, other than Jill Biden, who's a recognizable person, I had no idea who these other two people were. And I thought that's really precise for somebody like that who has inside access to all of these sort of insiders to put that article up. So I think you're starting to see the sort of leaks and the fissures.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And then that's sort of this next phase that will make things a little bit ugly and contorted.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let me ask one question here because we got to move on to the Supreme Court stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
sacks two poor question one is there a chance that he has had a diagnosis already and they're covering that up and two if they covered up something like that what is the ramification of it because it's clear to everybody he's in cognitive decline it's clear it's been a couple of years of cognitive decline no no that was asked of kjp in a press conference yesterday she was very explicit no and the reason no that she doesn't know she doesn't know
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Now, if you're doing well, you got a little extra chatter and you want to get together at the all-in summit, that's in September. We held back 400 tickets, according to Friedberg, who is running the summit now. He's released 100 this week, so get your applications in. And if you are trying to score a ticket or a speaking gig, just don't email me. Email Friedberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
No, no, no. The answer was much more explicit. Has he been diagnosed? And she said no. And the reason she said no is because that is very credible for her to say because he hasn't taken the tests.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Okay, so that's your theory.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Did you guys see this clip, by the way? There's a clip on Twitter where somebody put together a clip on X, six minutes of 100 sort of spokespeople and proxies. And they all had the same thing to say about President Biden, which is he is sharp as a tack. Sharp as a tack. Sharp as a tack. Which ended up attacking the round part.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
What was so funny to me is I thought to myself, if I asked 100 people on the street, What do you think of Elon Musk? You'd have 100 different statements. There'd be a general theme, but you would not have even 50 people repeat the exact same words. They're talking points, obviously. And so you have this funny situation where 100 different people were basically saying the exact same talking point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So it's not even a point of view. It was just something that they were told to say by somebody else. And that, to your point, sacks is the real issue, which is that you don't really have an honest media here. And so there is no check and balance on power right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Well, the contrast and compare I want to make is everybody has a point of view about Donald Trump. And I was thinking about this. The reason why everybody has a point of view about Donald Trump is everything that has happened in his life is completely transparently documented. There really is nothing hidden at this point. And so you have a point of view because you've been given all of the stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And there's endless amounts of new stuff that come out about the old stuff. And so you know. And that's what's so interesting. You have the ability to come to your own decision and it's not packaged through these filters. Yet with President Biden, I think it's so constrained and controlled.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Friedberg, any updates on the content? People want to know what's on the docket.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I think you have to understand and appreciate that cognitive decline, let's assume that he isn't for the sake of the United States. But if he is in it, it only gets worse from here. And it compounds and compounds and compounds. That is what happens. And so not only do you have to wonder what the next five months are like, what does it look like in 18 and 24 and 36 months?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
That is a really important issue here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Democracy working would be to do the speed run. I have a question. What would you do with the money? Would you just not spend it then? and just save it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Listen to Sachs. There's your political counsel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Give us two names. Give us two names.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Give us a second name. Bob Iger, yeah, it's a great one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Use the Republican playbook. Brilliant, Freeberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Well, listen, it's... I'm just trying to keep the show fresh. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Here we go. Next topic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Freeberg gets the final word.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I'm giving Freeberg the final word. He had the best take. I'm giving Freeberg the final word. Oh, you're pulling your McNeil era. Absolutely. Yeah. Okay. Here we go. There were seven rulings in a bunch of SCOTUS activity over the last week. But these are really important consequential decisions. We are going to talk about three of them. And I'm going to try to get through these quickly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Obviously, you could talk about these for hours and people will be doing case studies on them for a long time. But let me try to do this quickly so we can get everybody's take on them. The first one I want to talk about is NetChoice. This is the content moderation cases that you may have heard of. There were two very controversial laws passed in Florida and Texas in 2021 in the wake of January 6th.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Look at you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The Florida law, if you weren't aware of it, and I don't suspect most people are, would cover platforms with over 100 million monthly active users or 100 million in annual revenue. In other words, they're targeting X, YouTube, Facebook, Meta, those kind of sites. And they would require those platforms to notify users if their posts are removed or altered.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And the platforms would have to make general disclosures about their operations and policies. And the Texas law was very similar, platforms over 50 million monthly active users, and it would require them to notify users whose posts were removed and provide an explanation of why, all that kind of stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Both of these laws were challenged in court in 2021, just to give you an idea like why I think the conservatives were upset about this. Obviously, Trump being suspended indefinitely on Twitter, Facebook and other platforms or the labeling of content like we've seen on our own channel and YouTube. Netchoice is a tech industry group includes Facebook and YouTube and the parent companies of those.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And they sued to block these two laws. Justice Kagan, a liberal, wrote the unanimous decision. Obviously, no dissensions here. And the majority held the editorial judgment and the curation of other people's speech is a unique, expressive product of its own, which entitles it to First Amendment protection.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So just to give you an example, if you wanted to create a social network where you can't be anonymous like LinkedIn, you can do that. If you want to do something like Twitter X and have anonymous accounts, you can do that as well. If you want to create a social network with adult content, you can do it. or like Zuck is doing on threats. Interestingly, they are downplaying political content.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Look at you. But it's only been two days that I'm working. I mean, I'm not that relaxed yet, but this place does put you in the right mood, I got to say.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Obviously, other platforms amplify political content. So let me and so the end of all this in terms of how the court handled it is they offered some guidance and sent the cases back to the lower courts to clarify a bunch of stuff. Just to keep this brief. Shamath, what are your thoughts on this? Obviously, some of the ideas here
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
like letting users know why they were banned or why content was taken down. I think the overwhelming majority of users would like to have that. But is this the government's role?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I'm not enough of a legal scholar to know the details of this case, except to say that when the entire court goes in one direction, it's probably because this never should have been brought to the court in the first place. And they're giving a very clear message. It wasn't even ideologically strained to figure out what the right answer should be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So... Sacks, obviously, your chosen party was the one who brought this. You have concerns about the platforms doing this. But do you have equal concerns about the government then, I guess, being the ones who have to enforce these? Is this a good ruling?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You're doing some bird of a feather dinners, I understand this year, some new concept. Can you explain that to me?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, that's a key issue. Freeberg, your thoughts?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, so I think that's well said. And I was in the same sort of camp as you, Freiburg, which is like a battle of snowflakes here. Like, the liberals obviously were canceling people on these platforms. And now like the bag of folks want to come in and have the government regulated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Everybody comes to the parties, but that first night.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
If you want to compete here, just create a new product or service in the market, you're on the board of rumble sacks, like they're doing really well. And if you squeeze too tight, and your platform doesn't work, it's the marketplace should, you know, figure out who the winners are. And, you know,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
It's not a situation where you want the government getting in there because then they're going to go to a newspaper and there's so much precedent here. I actually read some of these rulings, which is really interesting. They're written phenomenally well. I will put in the show notes the actual links to the PDFs of these decisions. They're well worth reading.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And in this case, they brought up a bunch of the previous law was fascinating, like people wanted to force a newspaper to allow you know, one candidate to reply and give him space. They're like, No, you can't do that. It's their newspaper, they decide what they publish.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Another person wanted to have a corporate newsletter be forced to give information about the other sides, you just don't get to do that. I'll just say one more thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So the dinners will be 200 people or something like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I agree with you. The platforms have too much power. What is your proposed solution? You obviously don't want to have the government in there like running a newsroom or running Twitter X because you yourself are saying, hey, the government's too involved in X and these platforms and doing this jawboning. So obviously having them more involved is bad, right? You're against them being involved.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think we're totally missing the bigger picture. There's like a lot of fear mongering that I think has happened with respect to the Supreme Court and that it's all of a sudden become some super ideological, super rigid, super activist place. Yeah. And I think it's in fact much of the opposite and the data supports that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And then the bigger parties will be everybody, 1800 people. So where do people apply for this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And so I think it's important for people to know that what's actually happening is that many of these decisions are very much split along non-ideological lines. And I think that that's an important thing. So I just like, I'm pulling this up and I just wanna read some of these things to you. U.S.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
versus Rahimi, which is a federal law that prohibits people subjected to domestic violence, restraining orders from having a firearm. That was an eight to one decision where all but Thomas supported that. Makes a lot of sense, you would think. Racial gerrymandering, that was more ideological where it was a conservative bloc versus Sotomayor, Brown, and Kagan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Trump v. Anderson, which is Trump getting back on the Colorado ballot, 9-0. FDA versus the Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine, which was access to the abortion pill, 9-0 maintaining access. Moyle versus US, which is whether Idaho's strict abortion law conflicts with the federal law, non-ideological, where it was Gorsuch, Alito, Thomas, and Katanji Brown Jackson who dissented. So it goes on and on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Okay. There you go, folks. And you can come to the free events. You can come there. All right. Just usually when we do the docket, I pursue a mullet docket. I do the business first and the party in the back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I think what's so interesting about all of this is that I had thought That this was not like what it was. What I thought what had happened is Trump struck the Supreme Court. All of a sudden, we are ripping all these laws apart, this longstanding sort of doctrine of what has passed. But yet, I think what's actually happening is people are pretty thoughtfully
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
pushing the responsibility to the states. And I think that the court's decisions are relatively unpredictable in the sense that it's not just a conservative block versus a liberal block. I think that's the real story. And when you unpack a bunch of these decisions in that context, that's what's so interesting to me is like, these are our
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
pretty nuanced decisions that get at the heart of a lot of key important issues happening across non-ideological lines. Jan 6th won. Katonji Brown-Jackson was the Biden appointee that basically supported this thing that may throw out 200 plus convictions for Jan 6th. And Amy Coney Barrett was on the other side. This is an unpredictable Supreme Court. I think they think for themselves.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
They seem to be independent. And I think they are coming to their own conclusions. That's the only thing to take away from the distribution of the votes. That should make people feel a little bit better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So I think this next ruling is the most important one. And I think it will be the most important one that we've seen with this new court that has three of the nine justices placed by Trump, to your point, Shamath. And this one is Seisman. The Looper versus Raimondo decision overturned Chevron. Okay, so this one takes a little explaining.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The court overruled a landmark 1984 decision in the Chevron case from 40 years ago. For context, the original ruling created the Chevron Doctrine, where the government and federal courts generally defer to the stances of federal agencies unless Congress has written specific laws on an issue. The 1984 ruling upheld the EPA's interpretation of the Clean Air Act, It's very influential.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
This has been cited by federal courts over 18,000 times in 40 years. It was overruled in another six to three decision where the justices voted along party lines from off. Basically, this shifts power back to federal judges and courts instead of administrative agencies staffed by experts, academics, all that kind of stuff. In the majority opinion, Roberts, conservative, obviously,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
said the Chevron doctrine violates the Administrative Procedures Act of federal law that directs the courts to review actions taken by federal agencies. He also pointed out that the courts are regularly expected to deal with technical questions, so this should not be considered beyond their ability to scope. Kagan, a liberal, wrote a critical dissent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I know that. I know that. You've been anti-Mullet from the beginning. You want this to be a political show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
She said the agency staff with scientists and experts are more likely to have the expertise to make these decisions rather than the judges. She also pointed out that the system had been functioning for 40 years, and this ruling will create a massive, quote, jolt to the legal system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Chamath, get in there. Do you remember when President Biden tried to pass the budget two years ago, and he was one vote short, and Joe Manchin ended up putting it over the top, but he negotiated what was a redo of a bunch of regulation? Yeah. And he was promised that there would be this regulatory overhaul that happened. And that was sort of why he had decided to vote for that budget bill.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
It ended up not happening. So the reason why I think he had saw that and he discussed this is that there are so many businesses that now suffer from the regulations of these agencies. Because when the agency enacted that regulation, it was just a different time and place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And there was no clean way to go back to an independent body and say, I understand what your intention was in 1985 when you wrote that regulation. But in 2024, things have changed. Can we reconsider? And basically what the courts have done now will allow companies who believe that regulations are either overwrought or misguided,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
for today's market landscape, bring it to an independent judiciary and have them decide. And I think that that's a very reasonable check and balance. And I think that's, that makes a lot of sense. Folks can pass laws. And if folks believe that those laws do you undo harm, now you have a mechanism to go and actually explain your case to somebody independent who can then make a judgment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
All right. Sax, I'm sure that it's been an uneventful week for you. How are you doing in the great state of California from our headquarters at the All-In Tower in San Francisco? How's the All-In Tower doing?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think that that's a good check and balance. Freeberg, I know this was the one you most wanted to talk about. What's your take on this end of the age of experts and throwing things back to the court? What will be the practical ramifications of this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So to recap, it could get a little messy, but it's a better, healthier system because this system has become super bloated over 40 years. That was my take on it as well. Sax, what's your take on this? This feels like a huge win to me. What do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah. Chamath, any final thoughts here as we move on to the next one?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Seems like the Supreme Court is doing a great job. I agree. All nine of them. They really seem to be doing a tremendous job. I give them a lot of credit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
It's not a conservative court. This is what I'm saying. Like these are words that are planted by people that want you to believe their version of the lie. So there are a lot of originalists on the court. And what the originalist doctrine says, and Sax, you can correct me, is I read the Constitution with faith and fidelity, and I just see what it says. Not I interpret it, not I fill in the words.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I just, what it says is what we're allowed. And I think that there's some, there's a really good version of America in that view of the world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Whatever. I mean, the point is, last week was, I think, the most crazy week in the history of politics, and it's only going to get crazier. So let's start off with Hotswap Summer. You heard it here first, or maybe not. Hotswap Summer continues. You know, previously, historically, if you wanted to understand who's winning an election, you'd look at the polls. Not perfect, obviously.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Well, you know, I think what here and here's an image from Axios showing, you know, six Republican nominated and three Democrat nominated. I think to give the counter argument, you know, Roe v. Wade being overturned was something the majority of the country didn't want. These three people were added for that explicit purpose by Trump. People have trauma pain over that reasonably, I think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And then the truth is, though, if they are, you know, just one standard deviation here, as you can see in this Axios chart, which is based on some data I don't trust this chart.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think this chart is worthless, Jason. I think you don't want to look at the actual articles. No, but I'm saying, look at the actual arguments and how they vote. If you look at it... My point is, this is meaningless. A child could have drawn this. It means nothing. No, no, a child didn't draw it, Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
This was...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
How do you know?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Because I'm reading the source of the data. This is based on something called the Martin Quinn score. An analysis by political scientist Andrew Martin and Kevin Quinn. Notice the Martin Quinn score places judges on an ideological spectrum. A lower score indicates a more liberal justice, where a higher score indicates a more conservative justice. And then they went through all of their...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
decisions you're saying a subjective classifier a subjective classifier is created by these two random people and you're now regurgitating the score like it means something no i think it's an interesting way it's an interesting chart to discuss to understand a little bit of their meanings what i would encourage anybody to do is to look at the actual substance of the decisions and the votes and what you will see is that people are not as easily predictable as that chart would show and i think that's what's important
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Okay. I think that chart supports exactly what you just said, Sax. Right? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Okay, quick hit here. This is an important story for you, Chamath. SCOTUS also agreed to hear a case on the limits of online porn in its next term, which starts in October.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Some of these polls still call landlines, yada, yada. But then people built models, obviously 538, all this kind of stuff. But it seems that this year and this election cycle, people are really focused on prediction markets, aka betting markets. And we're looking at them in real time. And obviously, people have skin in the game.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The law in question is passed. Will it impact incognito mode? Because if it is, then... You're in trouble. I think there's a... Did you flee to Italy, or are you... Could you imagine if they banned incognito mode?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I'm pretty sure Texas is going to ban incognito mode. Yeah, exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Texas and Florida. I think a couple of these sites because of the threat of, you know, this, these laws of age gating, they've just decided to wholesale leave certain states by IP address. Therefore, the sale of VPNs in Texas went up because when you went to certain porn sites, I said, Hey, because of Texas is proposing these laws, we're not going to allow you to visit this website.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Nick, do the NBC thing. The more you know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The more you know. Okay. SCO disagreed to hear a case on the limits of online porn in its next term, which starts in October. The law in question was passed by Texas legislature in 2023. It requires porn sites to verify the age of their users and restrict access for minors. It seems reasonable. Fifth Circuit Court in New Orleans upheld the law sending it to the Supreme Court.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
If upheld, users would have to submit personal info that verifies they're over 18 to watch porn. The law is opposed by the ACLU and the Free Speech Coalition, which is a trade group representing adult entertainers and companies. They argue it places an undue burden on adults wishing to access constantly protected free expression.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Oh, speaking of porn and its related businesses... The Rick's Cabaret recession index is back on. Did you guys see this? It was published on Twitter. So Rick's Cabaret is a collection of public strip clubs. And then that includes sports. And what's interesting about the Rick's Cabaret stock price is that it has presaged the last two recessions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And whenever the stock dives, people have said it actually predicts an upcoming recession and the stock just declines.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
you know puked up like 25 or 30 percent in the last week oh boy there it is so people do not have the cheddar to go to the cabaret and go splashy cashing i got it it's called it's called rick's cabaret but the strip club index says recessions is on the off i prefer cabaret it's more charming
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
But you got to think that that showed up in the data at least a year or two years ago, no? Because how long has OnlyFans been around? A long time, I'm guessing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Well, but I think it peaked during COVID because, you know, you couldn't go to a cabaret if you wanted to take in a cabaret show. and have a bottle of champagne at a cabaret show, you can do it. So the thesis of our friend is the top flight entertainers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So I'm interested in the panel's take on the sharps on these platforms. And if you think that they're more accurate than, say, some of these polls or the aggregators of polls, but Kamala Harris is now the favorite to be the Democratic nominee, according to one of them. So just let that soak in. In the last 24 hours, VP Harris's chances of being the Democratic nominee have gone from 18% to 50%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Cabaret, cabaret and show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Shout out to... We'll call it the beep theory, yeah. The beep theory. So the elite cabaret artists can make more money on OnlyFans, they'll go there, and then that leaves the less refined artists
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
No, I'm just trying to get into cabinet position. So anyway.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
That's the paper company where they work. Apparently we've had a huge victory for Trump in the immunity case. Trump sued, in this case, based on special counsel Jack Smith's prosecution of Trump for alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election and his role in January 6th.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
If you don't remember that case, since there's so many cases against Trump, this was based on Trump pressuring Mike Pence to not certify the election, his phone call to get the $11,780 Votes that were missing in Georgia or Giuliani and the WAC PAC trying to fake electorates to overturn the election. Trump argued that he should be immune from prosecution for acts committed while he was president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Sigourney ruled 6-3 along party lines that former presidents can't face prosecution for actions that related to core powers of their office.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Official, official, official.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Core powers of their office and that all official acts receive at least the broad presumption of immunity. Here's the quote. Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of presidential power entitles former president to absolute immunity for criminal prosecution for actions within his jurisdiction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority, and he is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no immunity for unofficial acts that would be outside the duty of the president's. Chief Justice Roberts emphasized that decision, that the decision doesn't necessarily mean presidents are above the law.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
In her dissenting opinion, Justice Sotomayor wrote that under the new ruling, criminal law can't be applied to presidents even if they misuse their office for personal gain. She wrote that if the president orders the Navy SEAL Team 6 to assassinate a political rival, he is now insulated from criminal prosecution. Another quote, the president is now a king above the law.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
She closed with this line, with fear for our democracy, I dissent. Notably, this breaks the tradition of closing with, I respectfully dissent. So Trump's attempts to overturn the election results case now hinges on whether Trump's conduct was private or related to his official duty.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
For example, the lower courts now have to determine when Trump pressured Pence to not certify the election, if that was an official business of being president or not, or when he called Georgia and said, hey, can you find me 11,000 votes? Was that official duty or was it outside his duty?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The same time, President Biden has dropped from 66% to 28%. There are a Gretchen Whitmer, all in the 8% to 12%, but they were low single digits prior to last week's debate. As you can see in the chart, Biden and Harris were about even this morning. The taping of this is Wednesday, July 3rd. But the New York Times reported that Biden told an ally he's considering dropping out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
President Trump has already cited the immunity ruling in requesting a New York judge throw out his conviction in the hush money case. Sentencing for that was pushed back from July 11 to September because of this ruling. Sax, there's your wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
What do you think, Jacob?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Well, Jacob, what do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
This is I'm really curious.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I mean, I read the the I'm halfway through the the original PDF. And I do think the President needs immunity, obviously, for conducting business. And then I do think if they step outside the lines, they should not have immunity, and then the devil will be in the details here, and that's what courts and juries exist to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So when he told Mike Pence to not certify the election, he's obviously not doing that as part of his duty as president. When he called Georgia to get the 11,000 votes, he was not doing that. That's why he had outside counsel there. That's why he hired Giuliani and the WAC PAC.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
What do you think of Sotomayor's hypothetical of using SEAL Team 6 to kill a political rival? You think that he would be immune from prosecution? Anybody would be immune from prosecution for that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
No, that seemed a little bit hysterical. And actually, that came up in the discussions. I actually listened to the audio version of this when they were doing the Q&A, basically. And I think you listened to it too, Friedberg, when you talked about it. So yeah, I think the devil will be in the details here and how they execute it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Obviously, you need to have immunity if you're going to, I don't know, take actions, you know, to assassinate Osama bin Laden, right, or whatever it is. But, you know, it is a bit concerning, this concept of being able to shield the president when he asks, I don't know, the attorney general to do something illegal. So these are the details that are going to need to be worked out here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And obviously, it's a split decision. So the Supreme Court themselves can't agree on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think that there's just so much we don't know about what it takes to be the president of the United States. The example that I gave you guys in the group chat is like, look at the whole Iran-Contra affair. How complicated was that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Can any of us really understand what all of the interplay was when Ronald Reagan decides to work around a weapons embargo, sell weapons to Iran, take money, funnel it and fund the Sandinistas? In the middle of all of that, there was a huge cocaine trade that was kind of enabled or supported. I mean, how do we know?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think there's just a lot of latitude that you give to the one person that you elect to be president. And so maybe it's just a good reminder for all of us that we are electing one person. We cannot be electing five or six people. We're not electing a shadow cabinet. We're electing one person. And this is just a reminder of how much power that one person has. Zach, do you have thoughts?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Freiburg, your thoughts, I guess, the steel man on the other side would be, you know, Trump doing things like calling Georgia and asking to find votes or pressuring the president, the vice president to overturn the election results after 60 failed legal cases, you know, is what's concerning the other side. So do you have a take on it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So we should note the White House, a White House spokesman said this is absolutely false. But this is the money chart from, I think, Polly Market. And we keep updating this document in real time while we're taping. Chances of Biden dropping out are now at 77%. That's up from 60% this morning, 40% after the debate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Where do you stand on that, Sachs? You, in previous episodes, have said you didn't believe in this election interference and you thought Trump lost. Have you changed your position on that or are you still in that position?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let me ask a follow-up to that then. So in the case of, do you think Trump was acting officially when he asked Georgia to find the votes, when he asked Pence to overturn the election, or do you think he was acting in his duty?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So this is the one I think, Chamath, that is super fascinating, because I could see President Trump and his lawyer saying, hey, very simple, you know, we think there was election interference. So yeah, we called Georgia to make sure that those 11,000 votes were there. And hey, you know, we thought this was not a fair election.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So I was acting in my duty when I told Pence to not certify the election. I could see them making that argument. What do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I don't know the specifics of these cases, but I think it's going to force a prosecutor to have a really strong point of view and have evidence and then go after somebody. But again, I think you're focusing too much on Trump. Robert said in the decision, you have to look past the exigencies of the current moment. This is a set of rules that's about past presidents and future presidents.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Because you live in San Francisco. Everybody knows that. All you have to do is look for the protests. Follow the protests and you'll find SAGs. Also with us, of course, from the Ohalo headquarters. Is that backdraft, Cooper? The house is on fire. The house is on fire. But house, you're referring to America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
This is for forever. And so that's the most important thing here, which is there's a set of rules that I think we can all agree on because the man that we all elect, dutifully elect, is the most powerful person in the world. We knew it before. We know it now. So even more important that we make sure we're picking one person and that person is capable of doing the job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You may not agree, but they need to be competent and capable of doing the job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah. Well, they definitely have to be competent. And this case was brought by Trump over this specific issue. So I think that's, if we look at this specific judgment here, that's what they're going to have to determine in the coming months or years with this case is, was he acting in his duty or was he not? That's going to be a really interesting case.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And by the way, Katonji Jackson supported that decision.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
It's not just one, it's 200 of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Small percentage of the overall convictions though.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Except for the ones who beat police and brought long guns.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Right. Maybe he does it there. Oh, is that what they're doing?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
All those people got suspended sentences and trespassing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, the ones who went to jail were the ones who beat cops. No, not Jacob Chansley.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Oh, yeah. So they also went to jail if you did damage, if you vandalized. Yeah, that was the other reason people went to jail.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I mean, if you vandalized a Capitol building, I guess you have to do something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
No, I think they shattered the windows.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I'm concerned about the ones who brought all the long guns to the hotels around the Capitol to have backup firepower. But, you know, hey, everybody's got a different opinion on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, I think you can hold both of those ideas. I don't think anybody innocent should go to jail, and I don't think the Oath Keeper should have brought guns to the Capitol. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, they brought them to the hotels around them. Huge, large caches of guns.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah. They drove to the Capitol on January 6th and brought their guns to the hotel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
We agree. They should not go to jail. They should get trespassing tickets. Okay. This is episode 186 of the world's number one podcast. Did Biden resign while we're taping?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Okay. For the chairman dictator from the home office in Italy, your Sultan of science and the rain man. Yeah, definitely. Definitely cabinet position. David Sachs. I am the world's greatest moderator of the number one podcast in the world. We'll see you next time. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So is that before nap time or after nap time?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So this is the last chance again. It's like this is like the third last chance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
stefanopoulos generally does a good job he's not a sycophant i think he he considers himself a legit journalist and will will actually well this is he'll throw some fastballs i think well this is bernstein moment i mean like if if stefanopoulos wants to go into the hall of fame this is his opportunity if he absolutely if he throws the high heater to biden and basically is the one that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
delivers the coup de grace, then his name will be in history alongside Biden for that reason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Which house? Which house? America or Democrats or Biden's house?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You can't. You can only move it to Harris. You cannot move the entire...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
He's still our guy. You're correct that they're buying time, obviously, while they try to figure this out. And the powers that be, which powers that be? The Biden camp, which is not the political machine. It's his literal family, Hunter, Jill, etc., What they're actually doing, and this will be the next Nostracanus prediction that will come true, is they're going to do... Nostracanus. Nostracanus.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
oh okay there you go but is your butt on fire did you have some bad indian food did you hit the taco truck what there's a heat wave in the west right now he stopped at the taco truck the west is on fire the west is on fire okay okay dr doom if you want to come to the all-in summit now in year three we've got a ton of programming updates but the tickets are going to sell out we just
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
They are going to do...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
all caps locks alert must credit no stracanus they're going to do a democratic primary speed run here's what's going to happen they're going to do five debates in 10 weeks and then whoever wins wins kamala he's going to resign kamala becomes president kamala gets to um run she gets to speed run like everybody else dean phillips gets to come in everybody speed runs it the they take over the media
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The media will go crazy over the summer. Massive ratings. Boom. And we have a winner come in and they demolish Trump. That's not going to happen. You said he's not going to get hop swapped as well. No, Strakans has gone off the rails. You said he wouldn't get hot swapped. So you have no. Well, it hasn't happened yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
It strengthens the party because they say, listen, he decided to resign. We wanted to do the most democratic thing possible. What's the most democratic thing possible? We put all our candidates out there and you, the people, choose. Chamath, tell them I'm right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think this is one of the dumbest predictions you've made. And you've made some real doozies in your day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
We tried that four years ago and you're missing the history, which is Mike Bloomberg tried that exact same thing. And there was one word that was said to Mike Bloomberg and his candidates imploded. And it was the word billionaire. So the idea that you're going to get some other billionaire that all of a sudden is less hated. I mean, Mike Bloomberg has done so much good, quite honestly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And so if he can't kind of escape the scarlet letter of the B word, I don't know how anybody else is going to do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Release another 100 tickets. Jason, I'm sorry, you have a fly like attacking your head right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Just to finish this up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Hold on. Okay, so there's two things there. So just on the 2020 riots, I don't know how you blame Trump for the BLM riots of summer of 2020.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I get you don't like the mean tweets. It's not about mean tweets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And when you have people whose lives are at stake— I think it's far worse to actually have riots going on in the streets. That's what needed to be controlled. How many people— Hold on. He wanted to send in the National Guard to Minnesota. It was actually Waltz who rejected the National Guard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And there were plenty of ties between Democratic activists and the BLM organizers of those riots. Time magazine did a story on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
But I can't believe they're using the riots throughout the summer of 2020 as an argument against Trump when it was the left.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Let's go back to the foreign policy for a second. Trump is correct that he did not start any new wars during his presidency. You agree with that, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
That no new war started or he didn't start any? He didn't start any. He was like the first president in 20 years not to start a new war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He inherited Syria and Afghanistan and he wanted to get out and the generals didn't let him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
That's his argument is that he did not start any new wars. Has Biden started any wars? Well, I would argue that Biden provoked the proxy war in Ukraine, yes. I mean, you can disagree whether he provoked or not, but there's no question the U.S. has been deeply involved in a war with Russia in Ukraine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yeah. OK, well, look, we did we did support we did support the Saudis in their war with with with Yemen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're saying that somehow Trump caused the inflation?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
First of all, by the way, the war in Yemen started on March 26, 2015, according to ChatGPT, which is under Obama. So that started under Obama.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And he there was a record of the fact that we had nine percent inflation in twenty twenty two. So two years after Trump was office in the world, is Trump responsible for that and not Biden?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Wait, wait, wait. Sorry. Okay, so this is very hard to... Hold on a second. This is very hard to fact check in real time because I've never heard this theory before. Hold on a second. We can have a theory on the pod. Let's have Freeberg get involved. Freeberg hasn't asked a question yet, so let me try to... The point is that... you know, this is like totally novel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't even think I've heard you make this theory on X before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're just going to let him basically cite this nonsense and I don't get to interrogate it a little bit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay, what about the fact that Biden's first day in office, he cancels the Keystone pipeline and a bunch of leases. He makes it harder to drill in the United States. So he reduces the ability for domestic producers to produce. You don't think that that would have an impact?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The question is in proportionality. Do you think Larry Summers was wrong when... Q1, the first quarter of the Biden-Harris administration, Larry Summers warned that if you pass another $2 trillion of COVID stimulus, like they were planning to do, that could set off inflation, that we were on the brink. He said that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Kamala Harris cast the tie-breaking vote for that Inflation Explosion Act, otherwise known as the American Rescue Plan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The cause of this massive 20% inflation we've had over Biden's four years is a secret deal between Trump and MBS and like Putin's in there somewhere. You can dismiss it all you want, David.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're ready to go. All right. Let's go. I think we're going to have twice the virtue signaling as normal in this episode.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
It's all fun for money. Hold on. The supply chain was constrained during COVID and it was healing. It was getting better. And then they pumped all the stimulus in and everyone got these semi-checks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yeah. You've acknowledged that Kamala's unrealized gains tax is a disaster.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
It was in the last Biden-Harris budget. It was in the Harris platform at the DNC.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
They did a search replace on his name and put her name in there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You know, you're saying you're saying it's analogous. The Republicans have an open primary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
DeSantis competed. But he didn't participate. Nikki Haley competed. They had an open primary. Hold on a second. Trump was 50 points ahead. Maybe he should have debated. I don't know. Maybe. No, I mean, look, I would have been in favor of him debating. But he was 50 points ahead and everybody had a chance to run.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The Democrats pretended that Joe Biden was just fine, that he was sharp as a tack, that he was the best version of Joe Biden. And when the primary came and you had outsiders like Bobby Kennedy try to compete, not only did Biden not debate, They basically used lawfare to keep Bobby Kennedy off the ballot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
They did not allow him a fair shot at the nomination, which is why he had to leave the party and run as an independent. Then we find out after the debate that actually Biden is not fine. He's actually appears to be in significant cognitive decline. So somehow Nancy Pelosi gets him out of there. And then Kamala Harris is anointed. She's never won a primary vote ever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
she in 2020 she ran and dropped out before the first primary and then this time around she never had to compete in the primary and somehow she's the candidate the question is i don't think well the question is how can you liken this to what the republicans did having an open and competitive primary so first of all the republicans did not have an open and competitive keyword competitive primary because if one of the candidates refuses to participate because they have a lead
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I was supporting DeSantis at that time, and it was definitely competitive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Their names were on the ballot. I know. You're talking about a very-
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I think when, if you look at... He would have beat them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, hold on. I'm saying it's unclear. I don't think you can just say that they would have won.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I didn't know that you took acting classes. That's interesting. Did you want to be an actor before a businessman or what? Oh, no, no, no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So that means it's not a truly competitive... When Trump was in a crowded Republican field and debated, he crushed everybody. So I just don't know what would have happened. That was 2016. But the point... That was 2016. This is just debate. This is just debate, okay? What about the point that the Democrats kept... other contenders off the ballot. They used lawfare.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And moreover, they lied about Biden's cognitive condition. And then they anointed Kamala Harris through a process that is opaque, and we still don't know what happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Why did they get rid of him?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
They are a private organization. Are they the party then of democracy as they claim to be? Or are they the party of winning it all?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Hold on a second. There were 14 million primary voters in the Democratic primary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
There's an open primary, though. People got to vote for their candidate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Listen, I mean, I was, again, I was supporting someone different during the primary. And the reason why DeSantis lost is he didn't get enough votes. Okay. The Republican primary voters wanted Donald Trump. That's why. Trump won the primary fair and square, whether he debated or not. He was up 50 points on everybody else. And I don't know. That is not what happened with Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
What happened with Biden is Biden won the Democratic primary. He got 14 million votes. And then they threw out that result and put in Kamala Harris because they didn't like his debate. We were in a fraternity. What's that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Right. So you're saying the Democratic Party is a clique. I get it. I think we're talking democracy. That's my only point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I'm not a Democrat. The Democrats said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I'm supporting Kamala Harris. Hold on. Can you just acknowledge that their rhetoric is hypocritical?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I can't resist asking. So, is your acting as a surrogate for Kamala? Is that acting too?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay, wait, wait. Can we get into this? Sure. Because you obviously have like a love-hate relationship with Trump going back 20-something years. Yeah. Let's just go through the timeline here. First of all, I don't hate the guy at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So that's an area we can agree on. But before we get to that, so your claim on borders.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, we can agree on that. We'll get to that. But before we do that, I just want to finish up on border here. So your claim is that Kamala Harris really wanted to seal the border, but she was prevented from doing so by Joe Biden. No, that's not what I said at all. He didn't say that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I'm just – you said that this was a case of a VP who was thwarted by her boss from doing what she wanted to do. No, that is not what I said. Okay, so you admit that she was on board.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, no, no. You are the king of positioning for virtue signaling. Okay, so the truth is she was on board with Joe Biden's agenda.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
If I agree or disagree, how do you know she disagreed with Joe Biden about these policies?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
She has a different policy. No, it's an election year conversion. She realizes what a disaster it's been. So when Trump does it, it's brilliant. No, let me give you the proof. Okay. Her own words. Okay. So she flipped her position. She called Trump's border wall un-American and medieval and mocked it. And this is before she became Biden's vice president. And right around the same time. Hold on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
When she was in the Senate and Trump was trying to build the wall, remember, Democrats tried to thwart that. They subjected him to years of litigation to prevent him from building that wall. And she, multiple times, was on record saying the wall was un-American, medieval, mocked, and so forth. She also compared ICE to the KKK. She said that images of Border Patrol agents evoke slavery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay, this is her rhetoric. I don't think Joe Biden made her say that. She suggested that we abolish ICE and start from scratch. OK, and now she wants to talk about how tough she is on the border.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're positioning as- Okay, so hold on. So throughout her whole time in the Senate, she was arguing against a border wall, okay, in the strongest possible language. She then becomes border czar, or you could call it point person for the Biden administration. And for three years, they gaslit us
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
that the border was not a problem, that it was not an open, festering wound, like the videos were constantly coming out. I remember on the show, we talked about it. And I was told when I raised the issue of the border, that was a conspiracy theory, that Fox News was just cherry picking videos. Remember that, Jason?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Something like over 10 million migrants have entered the country during the Biden-Harris administration. The first thing they did, hold on a second. First of all, we don't know. When Biden, when Biden, no. First of all, we don't know. No, no, we do know. Those 10 million are just the border encounters. Those are the recorded crossings that they led into the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The number we don't know is whether how many more were not recorded.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
That could be 20 or 30 million. Well, you can look up on encounters. Why did this happen? I'll tell you why. When Joe Biden took office, he repealed all of Trump's executive orders. No, he did not. What is it? Section 42? 90 of them. Title 42 stuck around until the end of 23.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And in addition, they got rid of Trump's remain in Mexico policy, and they changed the meaning of asylum so that anyone who went to the border and said that they were suffering economic hardship, which is basically the whole world, okay, could now qualify for asylum. And they were given like a ticket to appear in court one day, like three years, five years, and they were ushered into the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And then there were like nonprofits working with the Biden administration to put them on buses. David, I agree that they screwed up all over the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, that was in private communications in 2016. And J.D. Vance explained, including last night, why he changed his mind about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
This was her position like six months ago, and now all of a sudden she's the nominee.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
She was the point person for the administration. Okay, look.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I think J.D. explained why he changed his mind about that. He said that there was a referendum in Ohio and his side lost. So he can change his mind.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Hold on a second. He's taking a learning from that. Kamala Harris has never explained why she changed her mind. When will the media even ask her this question? She doesn't submit for interviews. And certainly the debate moderators like on ABC never asked her a question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Mark, if she's going to change her mind, if she's going to have this election year conversion, why doesn't the media ask her what is the basis of this? When did you change your mind? Was it five minutes ago? Why then did you support Biden throughout your entire last three and a half years? Why don't they ask her these questions?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
If you were part of the Biden administration, why did you volunteer to be the border czar if you disagree with Joe Biden about these policies? When exactly did you change your mind? Those are the questions that she should be answering. Why won't she answer? Those are the questions that you want. Why won't she submit to an adversary?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I think we actually have found a point to agree on, which is I think Kamala Harris is just saying whatever it takes to get elected.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Vance. Hold on. She stated her true belief years ago and throughout the Biden administration, which is she never believed the border was a problem. She thought the border wall, Trump's wall, was un-American and medieval. And she thought that ICE needed to be abolished. I think that was her true belief.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Now, if it's not her true belief, I would like her to explain when she changed her belief and why the same way that J.D. Vance did. And I think the American people are entitled to know that. And I think if the media was doing its job, they'd be asking her those questions. She's never been asked that. Stephanie Rule in her latest interview did not ask that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And the debate moderators did not ask that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He's been going on for weeks. I know he's not supporting Trump, but. I tell you one, one Republican that, as I understand that you are supporting is john Deaton, who is running against Elizabeth Warren in the Massachusetts Senate race. Yep. So I'm curious about this, because I think this is an area we could agree on. You're not sure. I didn't know that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Can I get your reaction to this story from the Washington Reporter? There was a story, I don't know if it's true or not, but according to some Senate sources, Kamala Harris was considering Gensler for Treasury Secretary. I would call that bullshit. Have you asked her about that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, I mean, the reason he's in that role is because he is Elizabeth Warren's ally. And she has been enormously powerful during the Biden administration.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You don't think it's relevant that she was born to a middle-class family as the answer to how she's going to solve inflation?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Two days ago. I thought you were talking about the RNC.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're talking about a rally? He will speak extemporaneously for over an hour.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I'll take that any day over someone on a teleprompter for 19 minutes. But David, so what you're saying, it doesn't matter what he says? No, I think it does matter, but I think that I've watched enough Trump rallies, including his speech at the convention where I was there listening, to understand what issues he stands for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I've heard him say good things and bad things about Jimmy Carter. Okay, so let's put that aside. Everyone makes fun of Jimmy Carter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I haven't heard that bit yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And then he also said that I also know that people take a lot of what Trump says out of context to make it seem a lot worse. If you listen to what he says and you don't try to, you know, shade it in the worst possible way, a lot of what he says makes sense. I believe that if you if you want to know why I support Trump, number one, the border. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Unlike Kamala Harris's election year conversion, he has been very consistent ever since he came down the escalator that we needed to have a wall. And that really, that was just the first part of our border security. We needed to have a border. Democrats, not just Kamala, pretty much all the Democrats fought him on that for the last eight years to the point where- I understand. I understand.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So the border is one thing. So you got that. Okay. So I think that he and only he has credibility in this election on that issue. Number two, on the foreign wars, we talked about this. I mean, I don't think his record on foreign policy was perfect, but it is true that he did not start any new foreign wars. Here's Joe Biden. What war did Joe Biden start? The Ukraine war. We could have ended that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He invaded Ukraine? I've argued on the show many times. In my view, he provoked it. He provoked it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
As opposed to Putin. Hold on a second. He forced Putin to invade Ukraine? Come on, stop acting dumb. You understand that we tried to convert Ukraine into a giant NATO base. The Russians said over and over again that that was a red line to them. It was the brightest... But to blame it on Biden is a little crazy. And Bill Burns, our current CIA director, said it best.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
It's the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite, not just Putin, okay? Okay. That has been a consistent Russian policy for over 20 years. And moreover, hold on a second, even if you don't believe, even if you disagree with me, and you say that Biden didn't provoke it, we had the chance to end the war in its first month with a deal at Istanbul.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
OK, and, you know, the mainstream media denied it for a year. It was only an alternative media. And then finally, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal wrote stories about it. It is the truth. Victoria Nuland just admitted it. We could have agreed to a deal in the first month. The Biden administration shot that down. That is why we have the war going in Ukraine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
OK, so let's just say that's a fact. Remember, Zelensky is also incredibly destructive. And by the way, if you care about Israel, hold on, Mark, if you care about Israel, you should be really concerned about the fact that the United States has significantly depleted its stockpiles of weapons and artillery ammunition in Ukraine on a war that is futile.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
155 millimeter artillery shells are 155 millimeter artillery shells. It's not about new or old.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
There's only so much air defense. There's only so many Patriots to go around.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He could only say yes to it if the U.S. supported it. And instead, we encouraged him to fight. We threw cold water on that deal. We blocked it. We should have told Zelensky, you know what? Just make that deal. We don't need another war right now. OK, this NATO thing's not happening anyway. OK, because we're not letting Zelensky into NATO.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
We're not going to let in. Zelensky was just here in the U.S. last week with his so-called victory plan. You know what his victory plan was? Let us into NATO immediately so that you can fight our war for us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
It's like meeting celebrities, right? Stuff like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The Biden administration, to its credit, rejected that. I give Biden credit for that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Whenever it's inconvenient, you want to pretend that Harris has nothing to do with this administration. No, I'm just giving you reality, David.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So she was just following orders, basically, the Nuremberg defense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
There's an abundant record. I know what J.D. Vance stands for. There was an abundant record of Kamala Harris as a senator before she even got the VP job. She was rated the most liberal member of the Senate by GovTrack. Why don't you answer Mark's question? It is. The question is, what does she really stand for? No, no. He asked you about J.D. Vance. You ignored his question. Sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
What's your question? I'm happy to answer it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, obviously, I understand that a VP cannot go against what the president wants.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Hold on a second. That fact does not prove that Kamala Harris has a different policy than Joe Biden whenever it's inconvenient for you to admit that Biden's policy sucks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
windowless bedrooms as a way to change the building codes to incentivize more apartments being built to fix the housing crisis converting the problem with converting the plates in commercial this is the gaslighting they try to make Trump seem crazy I mean Trump lies constantly let's be honest then you find out that there's a real basis to his
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You believe he's incognito? As an example of Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I think he's very sharp. We met him personally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Actually, let me ask you a question about that. When you did it, did you just do it for fun and it worked out to be a great business or did you think it was going to be a great business?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Let's show this. We have this. This was got tweeted.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Wait, what are those? Never heard of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, he was dancing on the grave of your show. So you're saying you didn't have beef with him before that letter just came out? No, it was not a beef.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay. But then when he ran in 2016, you were supportive. Can we show that? Let's show the 2016 clip. There's more in between.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Plus, you'd have to run as a Republican because Democrats hate billionaires like you. You saw what happened to Bloomberg, right? You saw what happened to Bloomberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
But $100 million made it to the first question of the first debate. Boom. Elizabeth Warren knocked him out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I know. I know. Look, I give you credit. You're fun to talk with and argue with. And you obviously don't take it personally. And I appreciate that. And yeah, I give you credit for having fun with it. I know too many depressed billionaires, so. Yeah. I give you a lot of credit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, we could still go there. Where's Jake?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't think you need much of a theory to explain Elon's views because he's just so transparent about what he believes. I truly believe that his core conviction and the reason he bought Twitter X is because he wanted to unlock it as a free speech platform. I don't think so. I don't know how much more money he can lose in pursuit of that goal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't think he knew. He didn't know that he would get boycotted by all these advertisers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And taking out a huge amount of the cost structure, which he did. Jason and I were there on the first day. The first day he took over, there was an organized boycott of advertisers. They called him anti-Semitic, which is ridiculous, before he even had a chance to do one thing about that site.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Unless there's a collusive effort going on to sort of organize those advertisers into a boycott. I don't understand why you won't give him credit for believing in free speech. That's clearly the principle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't know. I mean, he said, he said before he bought it, that he was going to open it up as a free speech platform. And this is why, hold on. This is why the left immediately started boycotting him before he even changed one policy. Jake, help me out. You were there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't see the need here to look past or to look for an ulterior motive in what Elon's doing. Elon believes in free speech. It's very clear. He's run the platform that way. And it's costing money. So what else could the motivation be except his principles?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I know, but that's not why he's running it as a free speech podcast. Let me give you my counter to that. You know him better than I do. Why are we even having this debate? Who cares? I know, I'm just curious. He's running as a free speech platform.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Let me ask you, actually, to me, this debate is kind of pointless, but let's talk about actually the issue. There's a news story this week where OpenAI just raised, what was it, $6 billion at $150 billion valuation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
um they originally started that enterprise with 50 million or so from elon it was a non-profit then they became a for-profit now there's a report saying that they're telling investors in this round that they can't invest in any other ai companies so they're acting like i mean they've gone from non-profit philanthropy to piranha for-profit company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yeah, it is a sharp elbow. Sam said he wasn't going to take compensation. Now he's getting compensation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Period. They're not under false pretenses. But don't invest.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
All right, guys. I got to go. Appreciate it, David. Mark, you've been really fun to talk to. So good talking to you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You got it, guys. Thanks so much. Love you, boys. Bye-bye. We'll let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Wet your feet. Wet your feet. Wet your feet. We need to get merch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And so what happens... Just so the audience can understand. So the email is from you to him saying, tell the boss, I said, congrats on his sweep. And then his assistant printed it out and then wrote back to you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Why is it that all the Democrats are afraid to call themselves Democrats?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Nasty. How did he send this to you? He emailed this to you or what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He doesn't use email. I mean, the guy is a different generation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Is this a different generation? No. At least that's my interpretation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Because he's doing so much shady stuff, man. I think you're reaching there. Obviously, there's a paper trail. If he writes on a piece of paper, hold on. If I write right now on a post-it note, scan an email to you, there's a paper trail.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
His assistant created an electronic record. What's the difference? You have to ask him on that, but he said it out loud. I think it's a generational thing. This is my interpretation. I think it's a generational thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Thank you, President Biden. President Trump?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
This has been, quite frankly, a car accident in slow motion that we've seen over and in building and questioning it. And as has been pointed out, Joe Biden sought this debate at this remarkably early time because he knew he was losing and he needed to change the narrative. And he did change the narrative. He sunk his campaign tonight.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Nice. That's really good. It's the first show from J. Kyle Productions. If I'm the judge, then what does that make you? Are you like the bailiff?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
They had their chance. They had their chance. They could have gone for Bobby. They drove Bobby out of the party. That's not their only chance. He didn't start as an independent. He started as a Democrat. I know by his last name that he's a Democrat. A Kennedy Democrat. Kind of in the name. You had Dean Phillips. Dean Phillips took the chance. And of course, he was pushed out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Not of the party, but basically ostracized. They had their chance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah, I mean, they translate what you just said, which is the Democrats hope to put Trump in jail using lawfare. And when that fails, they realize that they're going to lose the election to him and they've got a big problem. So they're going to try some desperate strategy to find a new candidate. But it's way too late for that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Ryan Seacrest.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I don't understand how you could say this wasn't nefarious. This whole thing was nefarious from top to bottom.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
The fear and cleavage site makes it clear that this was a lab leak. That's not a naturally occurring virus. The fear and cleavage sites were engineered.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Please give me a couple of minutes to kind of lay out what happened here. Okay, so... Fauci knew very early, as early as February 1st of 2020, that COVID came from a lab leak. The scientists said, so all they had to do was look under a microscope and see the furin cleavage site, which is not naturally occurring.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It's something that was added, basically bioengineered to the virus in order to make it more transmissible in humans. So they knew right away that this somehow came from a lab leak. And Fauci and Collins said in emails that they were going to begin a brutal takedown in order to conceal this fundamental truth of the lab leak from the public. Now, why would Fauci need to conceal this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Because he had funded gain-of-function research programs via Peter Daszak and the EcoHealth Alliance to conduct, again, gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Moreover, Fauci was personally responsible for reversing an Obama era decision to prohibit gain of function research because it was so risky. Fauci wrote op-eds justifying gain of function research.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
He wrote a paper in 2012, which was actually quite candid about the risks of gain of function. He describes the kind of lab leak that could occur in the type of virus that could escape from a lab. because of gain-of-function, but then he says that it's a risk worth taking.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
So this is somebody who funded the Wuhan lab, he funded gain-of-function research, he was personally responsible for lifting the ban on gain-of-function research. He had a lot of reasons to wanna hide the fact That COVID was engineered in a lab and was lab leak.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And so we know that even before this conspiracy to basically defraud the FOIA request, that Fauci had done things like organize that letter to the Lancet, which smeared and demonized scientists who were trying to tell the truth. saying that the so-called zoological theory was nonsense, this had to be from a lab.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
He was doing things like this, and now we have this added piece, which is this longtime colleague of Fauci and Collins at NIH, Dr. David Behrens, developed a strategy for evading FOIA requests that would expose the truth
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
He did this by deleting government emails, which is a crime, by using private email to conduct government business, which is also a crime, and then strategically misspelling names and titles to frustrate the FOIA searches. And then the craziest part is that Morenz foolishly detailed his schemes in emails that Fauci would have seen, that Fauci was on the distribution list of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
So he has no plausible deniability.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
You have to see the FOIA piece within the overall picture here, which is Fauci from the get-go was lying about the origins of COVID in order to cover up his role in funding this type of research. And there was a comprehensive effort by people at NIH, likely at Fauci's direction, to again, not just cover this up, but to smear
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Scientists were on the offensive in addition to trying to cover their assets. Yeah, people like Jay Bhattacharya, who then got censored and banned on social media.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
We're hosting an event for President Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I'm sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah, we're hosting an event for the once and future president. 45 and soon to be 47. Who's we? As I saw from your own polling data that you tweeted this morning, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
So who knows? And polling historically has underestimated Trump's support because people have been reluctant to say they're supporting him for some reason. So, yeah, things are looking very positive for Trump right now. But in any event, we're hosting a fundraiser for him. Oh, wow. He said that he wants to come on the All In pod at some point, so we just need to schedule that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah. And by the way, there are internal NIH emails that suggest that COVID leaked from a level two facility. They call it BSL-2, which does not operate with the top level biohazard safeguards. So they knew the Wuhan lab was not at the level of safeguards that it should have been. But look, I would go deeper and say that why would you do this kind of research at all?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I mean, you are deliberately manipulating viruses in order to make them transmissible in humans. This was a bat virus that was not transmissible to humans. It was bioengineered. They had the furin cleavage site to allow it to gain access to human cells. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It's a possibility that's so remote. I mean, look, I heard Professor Jeffrey Sachs talking about this in a recent interview, and he went through the whole history. He said there's like 200 of these coronaviruses in this class or category, and there's not one furin-cubic site among any of them. So can you say that there's not a one in a billion chance of it happening naturally?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I guess, but it's a very, very, very low probability event.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Number one, you don't do this type of gain-of-function research. Number two, if you are going to do it, you don't do it at a level two facility like the Wuhan lab. Number three, when the virus leaks from the lab, you don't basically lie about it and conduct a cover-up campaign that smears the reputation of honest scientists.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Number four, when you're hauled into the Oval Office in response to this once-in-a-century pandemic, you don't pretend like you're America's doctor and you have all the answers when, in fact, you're the guy who created this problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And by the way, we did this for, let's not forget, we did this for RFK Jr. He appeared on the pod. We did a fundraiser for him. We did it for Vaik Ramaswamy. He came on the pod. We did a fundraiser for him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Why would you do this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
There are many scientists who are opposed to gain of function research. They thought it was unduly risky and didn't have offsetting benefits. And that is exactly why Obama banned it. Very good decision. To me, this whole idea that we need to amplify these viruses in order to find out what would happen if this happened naturally is insane. You didn't have this problem until you created it. Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
This is nutty.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah, that's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Steel man the opposite side. Let me build on a point Chamath made, which is, I think we have to ask the question, what type of government do we really have? You know, we call ourselves a democracy, but are you a democracy when the elected leaders come and go and the really powerful bureaucrats running the government, running these agencies, stay for decades and decades?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And if the president disagrees with their policy, they can just wait them out. Fauci wanted to do gain-of-function research. Maybe, by the way, at the behest of DOD, we don't know. It could have been a bioweapon or biodefense program. There's a lot more to this that we don't even know about yet. In any event, it's clear he was passionately committed to funding gain-of-function research.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
He just waited for his opportunity and implemented it as well. Victoria Nuland in the State Department. passionately committed to basically bringing Ukraine into NATO and using that to essentially provoke a regime change operation in Russia. Again, she just had to wait for her opportunity to basically keep pushing these policies for decades.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
These are the people who are really running the American government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Right. It's called the deep state, right? You ever hear the expression deep state? It sounds conspiratorial. It's not. It's just the permanent bureaucracy. We elect a president, but how many people does the president actually appoint? A couple hundred? 99.9% of the people running the government are there permanently.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I don't think it has anything to do with Trump. I think it's got everything to do with the fact that the New York Times was covering for Fauci. Fauci has been there for decades. He is a major source for the New York Times, just like he was a major funder of grant programs, right? So there's a lot of people who have developed a dependency on Fauci.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
There's no question that the New York Times was covering for this. The New York Times definitely promoted the idea that anyone pushing the lab leak theory was somehow a conspiracy theorist or a nut.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
They were pushing that whole crazy wet market theory. Well, the wet market theory. The pangolin. The pangolin. Remember the pangolin?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
That's why it was a great cover story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
There's many crazy parts of this, but I think maybe the craziest part of the whole thing is that when the pandemic happens and the elected government of the United States, the president, needs to pull in the resources to manage a policy response, who do they pull in? Fauci, the guy who created the problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It's kind of like when they have Nuland be our chief diplomat in the State Department, and she's fomented the coup in Kiev in 2014. Again, these bureaucrats are doing the exact opposite of what they're supposed to be doing. They're not protecting public health.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
But I think to answer your question, what do we do about it? I think we just got to clean out the stables here. I think we just got to disband some of these government departments. Why do we have so many? This whole alphabet soup of three-letter agencies. I think Vivek Ramaswamy had the right idea. Let's just get rid of a bunch of these things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And kudos to Rand Paul, too. Remember when he was in the fourth?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
But to your point about what does this mean for our democracy, I want to just bring up the Semaphore article where they polled young people and young voters. They despair over U.S. politics. They describe the United States as a dying empire led by bad people. I mean, after what we've learned about COVID, and I would argue also the whole background to the Ukraine war. They're not wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Is this right? Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I think it's really interesting how the crypto community is getting organized into basically a lobby to advocate for its interests.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Did you know that? Yeah, they've been so targeted over the last few years because... Gensler and Warren have been on a crusade to basically make crypto illegal or drive it offshore. Well, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. And now the crypto people have basically had a political awakening and realized they have to get involved in the political system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
This is a matter of defense, self-defense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
He's a pioneer. Yeah. Well, not like that. I mean, that guy was a crook.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Did you hear this rumor that- He was doing that to basically push for regulatory capture. Remember? I think it's a nuanced point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Roy, how's Saxcoin doing? We had Saxcoin and we had- Oh, gosh.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
If you get a DM from me, I am not selling Jcoin until you hear it first.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah, the Jason coin is basically at zero. Man, it was worth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah. To be clear, I didn't have anything to do with Saks coin either, but I was more amused by it than anything else.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Look, donating to a local candidate is an individual choice that each person's going to have to decide if they want to do it. Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah. If you're willing to open your pocketbook, which I know Jason's not something that you're inclined to do very often.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Well, I think it's pretty amazing that Salesforce lost something like $40 billion of market cap because of a revenue miss of $40 million. It's amazing how these relatively small, in percentage terms, misses in revenue or earnings drive such huge changes in market cap. It's quite a ripple, isn't it? Yeah. I mean, look, my view is that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I don't have a strong view about the stock, but my sense is it's probably a buying opportunity. I mean, I think Salesforce is still a great company. Mark Benioff's a great CEO. He's always positioned the company to chase after whatever the current thing is. So, obviously, he was one of the first to realize that software was headed to the cloud. evangelize for the cloud.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Then when the social networking revolution happened, he launched Chatter, which was a competitor to my product Yammer back then, but he was ahead of the curve on social and the enterprise. Then it was big data and they launched Einstein. Now they've got AI and they're going to be doing a bunch of different things there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
So my guess is he's going to figure out how to take advantage of this AI trend for the company. They're not going to miss it. They're not going to get caught totally flat footed. So, look, I don't have a super strong point of view on it as an investment, but I still think it's a good company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I'm honestly not worried about the per seat model. I mean, the point of a pricing plan should be to align... revenue expansion with ROI, meaning the more value that a customer gets from your product, the more they're willing to pay. And you just need some proxy for measuring that. Seats are a good proxy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It's a good way to measure how much value the customer's getting out of your product, because the more seats they're buying, the more value they must be getting. Yes, you could do it some other way. You could basically meter data usage. You could meter API usage. Sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Those models will work for other kinds of companies, but I don't think there's going to be a huge disruption to the seed model is my sense. Look, I think the bigger issue here is that their forecast was soft, right? They are forecasting, what, sub-10% revenue growth. And this is why the stock got punished.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And I'm seeing that a bunch of SaaS companies are kind of hurting today now in the wake of this. They're down like 5%, not 20%. So I wonder if what the market is wondering is whether there's a more general slowdown that we're on the precipice of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
That's just what a lot of public market investors do. I don't think it's a coincidence that we just had the GDP forecast revised down for the latest quarter. What was it? It's down to like 1.4%. One something, yeah, a million.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
The economy is looking pretty soft right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Remember when everyone was talking about soft landing? Yeah. The reason why they were having that conversation is because the Fed jacked up interest rates really suddenly from roughly 0% to 5%, 5.5%. And it worked. That has an impact on people's consumption because debt is much more expensive. So again, it's hard to buy a house, harder to buy a car. Anything you need to finance gets much harder.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It took a long time for this to work its way through the economy, but I think we're finally seeing it now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Well, I can promise you this. I don't think Trump's going to raise taxes, but Biden will if he has the trifecta.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I can't wait to be there. It's going to easily be paid for by my tax cut.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
We already know what happened when people tried to short Elon. They got incinerated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
What? He's not a CEO of anything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah, now that you know the stock performance, what are you talking about? I just think even in the next coming... So your position is... Your position... You're going to go out on a limb. You're going to go out on a limb and say that when Bill Gates was doing his legendary run, I wouldn't have shorted it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Absolutely. I also wouldn't short Michael Jordan or LeBron James. Steph Curry definitely wouldn't have been against him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Well, first of all, in terms of understanding this case, I think it's important to understand that both Merrick Garland's DOJ and former Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance, they looked at this case, they looked at these charges, and they passed on bringing this case. Alvin Bragg, who's a Soros-funded DA, he won a hotly contested race to succeed Vance by pledging to get Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And that's why he brought this case. And in order to bring these charges, he had to use a creative legal formula that turned a misdemeanor charge of falsifying business records, a charge that would have been passed the statute of limitations, into a felony by claiming it was in the service of a second crime, but he never named exactly what that crime was or proved that it happened.
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And I think it's safe to say that a case like this, which is novel and creative and torturous, would never have been brought against anybody but Trump. Now, there's about five different grounds for appeal on this. Number one, the judge is a Biden donor with a daughter who works for Biden.
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Number two, prejudicial and irrelevant evidence was admitted that should have been excluded, including Stormy Daniels' testimony. Number three, Trump was not able to call his expert in election law, former head of FEC Bradley Smith. Number four, The prosecution never named the second crime.
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And then number five, the judge let the jury pick from a range of options for what the second crime might be, including tax crimes for which no evidence was presented and federal election crimes for which the court had no jurisdiction.
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So my guess is that at the end of the day, this case is going to get tossed on appeal, but that's probably going to happen after the election, after November 5th, and Democrats now have what they wanted. They wanted to get out of this case four words, Donald Trump convicted felon. And you're going to be hearing that phrase convicted felon repeated ad nauseum from now until November 5th.
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And I think that's the whole point of this case.
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So well said.
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You just said it was going to be a reverse on appeal. So if you're so confident it's a crime, then why do you also say it's going to get reversed?
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They got escalated because Alvin Bragg got elected to pursue this case.
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I know you're really giddy about this, Jake. I can hear it in your voice.
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No, I'm not. Honestly, I wish. All you're doing is repeating. No, no, no.
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So speak for yourself, not for me. Okay, great. Well, maybe I'm just detecting enthusiasm in your voice. I'm not quite sure what it is.
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You're presenting these documents on the screen that are basically from Alvin Bragg's case. It's all you're doing is repeating his theory of the case, which I must say is extremely tortured and it's novel. I don't think a case like this has ever been brought. And if you are going to bring a case against a former president, it should be for something more than ticky tacky type stuff.
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Stuff that you yourself admit is politically motivated. It's obvious. Bragg was out to get Trump. This is a campaign strategy. You have to bend the law into a pretzel to create the case that you're describing.
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What this reminds me of is, you remember Ken Starr and what they went after Bill Clinton for with the whole Monica Lewinsky thing? Sure. And when that Starr report dropped, you know, and then hundreds of pages of legalities and they described all the prurient behavior and amazing amounts of detail.
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At the end of the day, the American people looked at it and decided that maybe there's a tawdry element to this, but it's personal behavior. And after some period of time, Clinton's popularity rebounded and he actually gained seats in the midterms because the Republicans overplayed their hand. Yeah, totally. And I think in a similar way, it's very clear to me.
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And in fact, you've already said this is politically motivated. And they basically have taken some sort of bookkeeping error that was a misdemeanor that was past the statute of limitations. And they've combined it again with this very novel legal theory about somehow committing fraud in the election, which, by the way, was not actually proven in the case.
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And as part of the jury instructions, again, the judge allowed the jury to have a multiple choice on what the second crime was, which is what a lot of legal experts think will become the basis for appeal. So again, this whole case was tortured. It was politically motivated. I would go so far as to say it's a sham. It's an outrage. And I think people are reacting as though it's an outrage.
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And again, if you're going to bring a case, not just against a former president, but the current front runner to be the next president, it better be something important to Not this ticky tacky thing, the way you describe it as being ticky tacky. Why even waste the public's time with this? Why even spend all the money pursuing this? And I told you why.
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As Donald Trump convicted felon, that's the reason why. The media wants that talking point. And by the way, if you want to make a switcheroo and get a different candidate than Joe Biden, that's not going to happen now because Democrats in the media think that this is their salvation. They know they're running a candidate.
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But here we are. The Democratic Party knows they're running a candidate who can't debate, who can't put two sentences together, who can barely find his way off a stage, whose policies are coming home to roost. The economy, like we talked about on the show, is slowing down very rapidly. His foreign policy is a disaster.
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But they think that somehow this is going to be his salvation, is being able to say that Donald Trump is a felon. That's their plan. And I think at the end of the day, this is probably not going to work.
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yeah it's not gonna work what's amazing is i mean i really haven't gotten any blowback you know there's a question about people ask me have you gotten blowback from this thing and no not really i mean other than the reporter knocking on my door and that kind of stuff but people really same it hasn't really created blowback and i think you guys are getting more blowback and that's an indication of just sort of the cowardly response to it which is
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Maybe the market doesn't like the U.S. becoming a banana republic.
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You know, it's like a cancellation tactic. We're going to try and like go behind your back and ostracize you instead of even telling you to your face what you think. And I think the reason why they're doing that is because, quite frankly, there's a lot of preference falsification going on in Silicon Valley. I know there's a lot of people in Silicon Valley who we know because we know who's coming.
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You have a list of people who don't. I mean, look, nobody is excited about Biden. Okay. Nobody's excited about Biden right now. So the only question is, do they hold their nose and vote for him or do they vote for Trump or do they vote for Bobby Kennedy? But there's a lot of people who I do think support Trump. And look, we've AB tested this, right?
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It'd be different if we didn't have four years of Biden, four years of Trump. There's a lot of people who can look back and say that the AB test we ran was
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indicates trump so i know there's going to be a lot of people who support trump but they don't want to admit it and i think that this event is going to break the ice on that and maybe it'll create a preference cascade where all of a sudden it becomes acceptable to acknowledge the truth and which is a lot of people support trump and it's not just this it's also steve schwartzman came out i think bill ackman's on the edge of coming out for trump so there's a lot of people who are now like flipping and i think it could really start to cascade on itself i
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When's the first debate? June 17th. Can I respond to that, Jason? I saw your tweet basically saying something very similar, that Democrats need to wake up and recognize the situation they're in. I think this is a case of once you've made your bed, you have to sleep in it. Look, The Democrats have set the table pursuing certain policies for the last three and a half years. We've had an open border.
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We had so much spending that it fed into this inflation, which jacked up interest rates. We had Ukraine become the central obsession of focus of our politics, which blew up in Biden's face with the whole summer counteroffensive. I mean, I could go on. You have the hostility to crypto, which they're now trying to desperately backpedal on.
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But you had three years of Elizabeth Warren and Gensler basically making crypto the enemy. And now all of a sudden, we're at first and go at that like 10 yard line. And you're all of a sudden saying, well, just read the room and make all these changes. You can't. You know, I don't think people are going to be fooled by that. We've AB tested this thing.
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We've had three and a half years of Biden, four years of Trump. Who do you like better? And how many months are we from pulling the lever? Five months?
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Why don't you support Bobby Kennedy then?
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But, Reid, I mean, Elon put in the first, what, $44 million, and he doesn't have any shares. Yeah.
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But do you think that he kind of got screwed because he doesn't have any shares? I mean, at the time he put in the $44 million, it was never going to be a for-profit. Now it's a for-profit. A lot of people are profiting, assuming the paper mark ends up being realized. So he doesn't own anything.
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I mean, if you were the seed investor and put up $44 million in something and then everyone's making money and you don't have any shares, forget about the legal technicalities. Wouldn't you have a feeling of being screwed?
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So I agree that her approach has been overly broad and has had a chilling effect on M&A. And so, J. Cal, like you said, we've lost those base hit- acquisitions that I think are important to the venture capital market that help new startups get funded. I mean, if the returns on risk capital go down, there's going to be less of it. Yeah, so I agree with Reid on that.
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The area where I'm not sure we agree is, and where I do agree with Lina Khan, is I do think the big tech companies have too much power. I do think that they are monopolies or have monopolies And I do think they need to be controlled. I just think that, you know, I wouldn't prevent them from doing any M&A whatsoever.
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I'm curious if Reid, like, agrees with that, that the big tech companies have too much power or agrees with Lena Kahn on that. And I guess specifically, do you think any big tech companies should be broken up? If so, which ones? I mean, I would actually entertain that idea of deconglomerating or breaking up some of these big tech companies.
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Do you think, do you agree that big tech is too much power or not?
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Yeah, I think when we met through Peter, you know, and Reid, I think Reid was on the board of, it was Confinity back then and then joined full time.
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Okay, so wait. So that brings up an interesting point. One of the things we've talked about in this pod is that we shouldn't shut down M&A, but the FTC should limit anti-competitive tactics by these big tech companies. Yep. Apple, really good example because they drive everything through the app store. You're not allowed to do side loading. They want to take, what is it, 30% piece of any sales.
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You're not even allowed to have a link inside an application to drive the user to the website. Except in Europe now.
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So would you at least want to crack down on those anti-competitive tactics? Yeah.
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I guess I would have been 27 when I first joined PayPal, 27, 28, I guess something like that. Yeah, 99, so whatever that was. In any event, I mean, I'll just return the compliment. PayPal had all these existential issues where you had these larger entities trying to kill us. Visa, MasterCard, eBay, who else? Yeah. Oh, the lust goes on city bank. Yeah.
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And Reed was kind of our emissary who kept all these dogs at bay and managed to, I guess, be friends with them, I guess, to some degree, even though they wanted to kill us. And Reed was kind of in charge of making sure that these existential issues didn't blow up on us. And they didn't. So we got pretty lucky there.
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Hold on, J. Cal, can we just stay on this topic for a second? I think this is important. Sure, of course you can. Okay, so in Michigan and Wisconsin, you had Democratic groups. They fought. RFK Jr. 's bid to get on the ballot. Okay, they failed. Now he wants to get off the ballot, but they won't take him off now that they think that his presence hurts Trump.
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And at the same time, Michigan's trying to remove Cornel West and Wisconsin's trying to remove Jill Stein. So I'm curious, do you think there's any principle on display here besides naked partisan hackery? I mean, basically, the Democrats fought... having third parties on the ballot when they thought it would hurt Biden.
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And now they want to keep them on the ballot when they think it's going to hurt Trump, except for those third party candidates who they still think will hurt Harris. So is there any principle here or is this just partisan hackery?
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If the Secretary of State of Colorado throws Trump off the ballot, for example, is that legal process if it's then overruled by the Supreme Court? Or can we just say substantively that states shouldn't be removing candidates from the ballot? That's anti-democratic.
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No, that's not what I said. Oh, OK.
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No, no, no. The rule is that – well, first of all, I don't think that Democratic groups should be suing RFK to keep him off the ballot. And that's what he said is that Democratic groups were suing to keep him off the ballot and they were trying to exhaust his resources so he couldn't mount an effective campaign. And some of those groups you funded, right?
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So maybe you didn't know what they were doing. But in any event, I consider that to be anti-democratic. RFK is now trying to remove his name from the ballot. I think as a candidate you're allowed to do that. And those same groups that once fought to keep him off the ballot are trying to keep his name on the ballot. Oh, really?
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Yeah, because now they perceive the political calculation to be a little different. So I don't see any of this as being democratic. This to me is just partisan hackery, isn't it?
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I have no problem with drawing attention to issues, but I do think fundamentally it's anti-democratic to sue third party candidates to the point where they can't be on the ballot. Okay, let me ask you directly, Cornel West. There's an effort right now to remove Cornel West from the ballot in Michigan. Do you support that or would you oppose that? I mean, is that democracy?
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Okay, fair enough.
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Well, but the reason why Kamala Harris proposed the price fixing proposal, price gouging, whatever you want to call it, was in response to inflation. In other words, we've had 20% erosion in purchasing power over the last four years. Harris needs a response to that. So she came forward with this new economic proposal. So it's in that context this came up.
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This wasn't some proposal by the far left of the party. unless you consider Kamala Harris to be far left, I actually do. But okay, fair enough. But my point is just, this is her proposal. And it's in response to inflation. I mean, you understand what causes inflation, right? It's like the government printing too much money. It's not greedy corporations raising their prices too much.
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I mean, do you agree with that?
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chicken, stuff like that.
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I mean, I could disagree with you on the border. I think, you know, Kamala... Harris used to be considered the border czar that's gotten scrubbed. I don't think she's done a great job on that, but whatever. I want to go back to issues that affect Silicon Valley. 25% unrealized gains tax. It seems like most of Silicon Valley, almost all of it, either disagrees with this or is up in arms about this.
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I think, J. Cal, you said that this is disqualifying. It's a line in the sand.
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So, I mean, do you agree that a large unrealized gains tax, 25%, would be a disaster for Silicon Valley and the whole startup ecosystem? Or, I mean, how do you come down on that?
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Then why isn't it disqualifying the way that J-Cal says? Are we just supposed to hope? I'll tell you why.
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Yeah, and by the way, one of the things— You keep bringing that up, but Trump has said that he would veto, he would not support a national ban on abortion.
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Yeah. And by the way, just returning the issue to the states, it's not outlawing abortion. And by the way, at the state level- Ask the people in Austin. You can't get abortions here in Texas. Well, but that's- Women can't make a choice here. They have not had a ballot initiative. They have not had a ballot initiative there.
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Just about everywhere there's been a ballot initiative, the pro-choice forces have won. And besides, that's a state issue now, J. Cal, not federal.
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Well, look, I mean, I have been consistent on this pod for years that I thought that the, let's call it the extreme pro-life side was not good for the Republican Party, and I've been opposed to it. I don't think it's what J-Cal says. I think that overturning Roe v. Wade did not abolish abortion. It basically returned the issue to the states.
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And if you look at the referenda that have happened, they've pretty much all gone the pro-choice direction. So I think that the overturning of Roe v. Wade has actually allowed the country to sort of sort out that issue, although it's not completely sorted out. But look, I would not support a national abortion. I would not support re-federalizing the issue.
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I think there's a lot of issues about war and peace where I do not support the, you could say the establishment neoconstrant within the party. I do not support all these interventions. I do not support these forever wars. And there is a big debate in the party about that. Now, one of the reasons why at the end of the day, I support Trump is I know this will strike some people as
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counterintuitive, but I think he is the moderate within the Republican Party. He's a moderate on abortion. I know, J. Cal, you're still bitter about that Supreme Court case. However, he's been very, very clear that he will not support national abortion ban. Moreover, he took the abortion language out of the Republican platform. I think he's the moderate on issues of war.
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He was the first Republican candidate to run opposing Bush's forever wars. So I give him credit on those things. On style, he may not come across as a moderate, but those are style points. I think on issues, he is the moderate. The issue I have with Kamala Harris is I don't think she's a moderate.
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So just to take this 25% unrealized gains tax first, when this issue came up, we were assured, well, she doesn't really believe that, even though it was in the Democratic platform and it was in the Biden-Harris budget. Then people said, well, maybe it's part of her platform, but it's not a priority for her.
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And we just had one of her top economic advisors come out on, I think it was CNBC, defending it. And her campaign confirmed that she supports it. So now the argument has become, well, she supports it. It is really part of the platform. She would do it if she could, but she's not going to be able to do it. I just don't think that's a ringing endorsement of a candidate.
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I don't think you want to support a candidate because they're not going to be able to do what they really want to do.
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Honestly, I'm not sure what I think of that proposal. I guess it depends on the details. I'm not endorsing it. I'm not opposing it. But just back to this point that should we support Kamala Harris even though we oppose all the policies that her campaign says she supports?
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Because it seems like that's the argument now, is that Silicon Valley is expected to support Harris, even though she wants, and her campaign has confirmed, she wants a 44% capital gains tax. She wants a 25% unrealized gains tax. These are things that I think the vast majority of Silicon Valley considers to be disastrous for the startup ecosystem. Should we support her in spite of those things?
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Yes, exactly.
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Is that the thing that Ron Conway just tweeted? He might have. I don't know if he just tweeted. No, no, no.
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And when Bill eventually did meet his demise at PayPal, it was called the Nuthouse Coup.
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Well, he was whacked at a board meeting, not at the Nuthouse, but certain plans were formulated at the back of Antonio's Nuthouse.
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I don't see how it's rule of law when you have a district attorney, Alvin Bragg, who's elected on a promise to get Trump. He then takes what are at most a bookkeeping misdemeanor that's passed the statute of limitations, that's expired. And he turns into 34 felony charges on a legal theory that was never explained to the jury.
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And then basically Trump is convicted in a sham trial by a hyper-partisan New York jury system so that Democrats can then run on the branding that he's a, quote, convicted felon.
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I don't think it's rule of law. Hold on. I don't think it's rule of law. I don't want to get Reid's feedback too, but let me just finish my point. I don't think it's rule of law when Trump is prosecuted on a documents charge that Biden himself is guilty of. He's got all these documents in his garage for decades, which the judge has thrown out.
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And we've seen a bunch of these lawfare cases where Trump has ultimately prevailed. The judge has thrown it out or he's went on appeal. So that seems to me like abuse of the legal system for a partisan political goal, not rule of law.
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So what's the two that he's been convicted, J. Cal? What's the other one besides the Alvin Bragg case?
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you know, kind of... Democrats are trying to put Trump in jail for 700 years. These cases are still outstanding. They want to put him in jail, Reid. Do you think Trump should go to jail?
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So I think that's... Why were these cases, why did they wait for two years on these cases so they could bring them in an election year?
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Maybe he wants to campaign this year instead of being stuck in a courtroom.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Jack Smith just filed new charges, new charges. And all this stems from January 6th. In the wake of January 6th, Merrick Garland's Justice Department did an analysis of whether Trump could be prosecuted for incitement, whether he incited that mob. And the legal memo came back and they said, no, we don't have a case here. It does not meet the legal bar for incitement.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Then it was reported by the New York Times that Biden thought that Merrick Garland was basically being a wimp and they need to go after Trump. So the hyper-partisan DA or prosecutor Jack Smith was hired and he came up with a novel legal theory that somehow Trump had perpetrated a fraud on the American people. Never been seen before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And since then, he's been prosecuting Trump and seeking to put him in prison. And when the Supreme Court just kicked the legs out from under his case with a recent decision, he just refiled charges. I don't understand how anyone can look at this and say, yeah, look, what happened on January 6th wasn't great, but the DOJ looked at it. It wasn't criminal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
But yet they've been pursuing this guy, seeking to put him away for the rest of his life, seeking to interfere with this election, seeking to deprive the American people of a choice. On a separate track, you've got Democrats in states like Colorado literally removing Trump from the ballot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I just have to fact check that no police officers were killed. Where are you getting that from?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
No, no, no. There was one cop who had a seizure later. It wasn't part of the riot. No police officers were killed as a part of the riot. I just have to fact check that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Wait, he's going to hire January 6th rioters? He's going to hire them? Yeah. I haven't heard that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Reid had to run, but let's just thank him for appearing on the pod. And I thought it was a good conversation. But I thought he approached it in good faith. And kudos to him for stepping into the lion's den. He was great. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Exfoliant.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yeah. Look how many buns he's got going. I know. It's just tragic. I feel uncomfortable for your neck. I mean, it's like creeping all the way up. Your neck looks like a prisoner.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Right, right. To be more precise, is the investment driven by ROI? Or does everyone just say, this is so strategic, we just have to win it and we'll throw all the resources we have to at this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Well, let me pick up on those themes, J. Cal. First of all, I want to commend Bobby on running an upbeat and positive campaign. You were and still are the most articulate and powerful champion of free speech over censorship, civil liberties over the surveillance state, peace over war. You've spoken about the issue of chronic health.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
which, to be honest, is an issue I didn't know that much about, but I think you've put it now on the political radar screen in a way that it's not going away. So I think you ran a very noble and effective campaign. And I think, like you said, it was a campaign for the soul of the Democratic Party. You know, I think you...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
represented issues that in the days of your father and President John F. Kennedy, these would have been Democratic Party issues. How did the Democratic Party respond? They effectively ran you out. They did not give you the chance. They conducted lawfare to keep you off the ballot. They didn't let you debate. I heard your running mates say they even tried to infiltrate your campaign.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And all the while, this party was claiming to be the party of democracy. I find that incredibly hypocritical. I think that if they had given you the opportunity to debate, I think we now know what would have happened. I mean, we saw what happened when Biden actually debated Trump is there's a complete implosion of Biden's campaign.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
We discovered that indeed the Democratic Party had been hiding his condition for a long time. And when he was finally forced to debate, didn't have a teleprompter or script, it became extremely obvious. What happened then? They basically put in a new nominee who's never been voted on. Kamala Harris has never received one primary vote. It was done through a process that was opaque.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
We still don't know how it went down. I have to disagree with Reid that Biden did it in a voluntary way. Biden went kicking and screaming. I mean, he basically said publicly over and over again, I'm not leaving the race. I'm in this race. He tweeted it. He said it. He said, only God Almighty could get me out of the race.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And then it was reported that Nancy Pelosi went to him and said, we can do this the easy way or the hard way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
She might be God Almighty. She might be God Almighty. But the point is there was nothing Democratic about this. And now we have a new Democratic Party nominee who refuses to do press conferences, refuses to do solo interviews, refuses to take questions from the press, who's hiding herself effectively. And yet this party, again, claims to be the party of democracy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I find it just almost maddening or galling again in its hypocrisy. And I just I don't see how everybody can't see through this. It's just not the way that democracy is supposed to work. And I certainly don't think that the people engaging these tactics can be cloaking themselves in all this highfalutin rhetoric of democracy. It's just absurd.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And so I feel like I'm in the place that you are, Bobby. You know, as viewers of this pod know, I did not start off supporting Trump in the primaries. I supported you in the Democratic primary and I did fundraisers for DeSantis and Vivek. And that was in large part because I think of the job that DeSantis did as governor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
But when it came to the general, the realization that I came to is that Trump is the indispensable figure in our current politics for marshalling this populist energy to resist this hypocritical elite authoritarianism that wants to engage in censorship over debate, that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
seems to want to protect and defend this surveillance state over anything it wants to do, that wants to keep all these wars going, even when they don't make sense, when we could have found a way to negotiate a diplomatic end to them. And so I'm kind of delighted that you've kind of come around to this opinion, too. I know you have your reservations about Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I'm not saying that Trump is perfect. I mean, I think he's a he's human, he's a flawed vessel, but at the end of the day, he is the choice that represents, again, these populist forces resisting authoritarianism. Sorry, this is more of a statement than a question, but I'll let you react to all of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Well, a lot of people feel that way, Jake. And I think at the end of the day, you and others are gonna have to decide. Do you want to support the candidate who has the right policies, but maybe there's style points that you don't like about him? Because I think that the things you're talking about, the mean tweets and so forth, at the end of the day, I think they're stylistic things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I don't think they go deep to policy or how he would govern. Do you want to support a campaign that is running on vibes and joy, you know, that has the superficiality that you like, but there's nothing underneath it. And when we do learn something underneath it, when we actually learn a policy, then all the people who are supporting her have to say, oh, well, she's not really going to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
She's not going to do that. So the best thing you can say about her campaign is that she's not going to be able to accomplish the things that she says she wants to accomplish. There's no basis on which to vote for a president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
All right, everybody, let's get the show started here. Jason, why are you wearing a tux? What's going on there?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Sorry, guys. Oh, my goodness. All those losses. Wow. That is. Three in one day. Three in one day. My goodness. I thought OpenAI was nothing without its people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Are you using 01 Preview or 01 Mini?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, yeah, I mean, this is pretty impressive. And just to build on what Freeberg was saying about chain of thought, where this all leads is to agents, where you can actually tell the AI to do work for you, you give it an objective, it can break the objective down into tasks, and then it can work each of those tasks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And OpenAI at a recent meeting with investors said that PhD level reasoning was next on its roadmap, and then agents weren't far behind that. they've now released at least the preview of the PhD-level reasoning with this O1 model. So I think we can expect an announcement pretty soon about agents.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Yeah, and so... And if you think about business value, we think a lot about this as like, where's the SaaS opportunity in all this, the software as a service opportunity? It's going to be in agents. I think we'll ultimately look back on these sort of chat models as a little bit of a parlor trick compared to what agents are going to do. in the workplace.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
If you've ever been to a call center or an operations center, they're also called service factories. It's assembly lines of people doing very complicated knowledge work. But ultimately, you can unravel exactly what the chain is there, the chain of thought that goes into their decisions. It's very complicated, and that's why you have to have humans doing it. But you could imagine that...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Once system integrators or enterprise SaaS apps go into these places, go into these companies, they integrate the data, and then they map out the workflow. You could replace a lot of these steps in the workflow with agents.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, it's interesting. We were having a version of this conversation last week on the pod, and I started getting texts from Benioff as he was listening to it. And then he called me, and I think he got a little bit triggered by the idea that systems of record like Salesforce are going to be obsolete in this new AI era. And he made a very compelling case to me about why that wouldn't happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Which is? Well, first of all, I think AI models are predictive. I mean, at the end of the day, they're predicting the next set of texts and so forth. And when it comes to like your employee list or your customer list, You just want to have a source of truth. You don't want it to be 98% accurate. You just want it to be 100% accurate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
You want to know if the federal government asks you for the tax ID numbers of your employees, you just want to be able to give it to them. If Wall Street analysts ask you for your customer list and what the gap revenue is, you just want to be able to provide that. You don't want AI models figuring it out. So you're still going to need a system of record. Furthermore,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
He made the point that you still need databases, you still need enterprise security if you're dealing with enterprises, you still need compliance, you still need sharing models. There's all these aspects, all these things that have been built on top of the database that SaaS companies have been doing for 25 years. And then the final point that I think is compelling is that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Enterprise customers don't want to DIY it, right? They don't want to have to figure out how to put this together. And you can't just hand them an LLM and say, here you go. There's a lot of work that is needed in order to make these models productive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And so at a minimum, you're going to need system integrators and consultants to come in there, connect, hold on, just connect all the enterprise data to these models, map the workflows. You have to do that now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
They have to remove the profit cap and do the C-Corp.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, by the way, he said he's willing to come on the pod and talk about this very issue. But just with you? No, no, no, no. He'll come on the pod and discuss whether AI makes SaaS obsolete. A lot of people are asking that question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, it was Bloomberg. It's not some article. It was Bloomberg, and it got a lot of traction, and it was re-reported by a lot of places, and I don't see anyone disputing it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
It looks like you're fighting back a tear.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
You could do that today. It's just that- That's an interesting point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
When we can do a good bit, yeah. That's mine. No, I think that Bloomberg reported it based on, obviously, talks that are ongoing with investors who have committed to this round. And no one's disputing it. Has anyone said it's not true?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So let's wrap this up so we can get to the next thing. Yes, please.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So look, I think that on the whole, I agree with Benioff here that there's more net new opportunity for AI companies, whether they be startups or you know, existing big companies like Salesforce that are trying to do AI, then there is disruption. I think there will be some disruption. It's very hard for us to see exactly what AI is going to look like in five or 10 years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So I don't want to discount the possibility that there will be some disruption of existing players. But I think on the whole, there's more net new opportunity. For example, the most highly valued public software company right now in terms of ARR multiple is Palantir. And I think that's largely because the market perceives Palantir as having a big AI opportunity. What is Palantir's approach?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
The first thing Palantir does when they go into a customer is they integrate with all of its systems. And they're dealing with the largest enterprises. They're dealing with the government, the Pentagon, Department of Defense. The first thing they do is go in, and integrate with all of these legacy systems. And they collect all of the data in one place. They call it creating a digital twin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And once all the data is in one place with the right permissions and safeguards, now analysts can start working it. And that was their historical value proposition. But in addition, AI can now start working that problem. So anything that the analysts could work, now AI is going to be able to work. And so they're in an ideal position to master these new AI workflows.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So what is the point I'm making? It's just that you can't just throw an LLM at these large enterprises. You have to go in there and integrate with the existing systems. It's not about ripping out the existing systems because that's just a lot of headaches that nobody needs. It's generally an easier approach just to collect the data.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I just think that that's the cycle. Whenever you're dealing with a disruption as big as this current one, I think it's always tempting to think in terms of the existing pie getting disrupted and shrunk as opposed to the pie getting so big with new use cases that on the whole, the ecosystem benefits. No, no, no, I agree with that. I suspect that's what's going to happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Speaking of investing in late-stage companies, we never closed the loop on the whole open AI thing. What did we think of the fact that they're completely changing the structure of this company? They're changing it into a corporation from the nonprofit, and Sam's now getting a $10 billion stock package.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I've got enough money.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I'm paid enough for health insurance. I have no equity in OpenAI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
No, Louisiana. That's Senator John Kennedy from Louisiana. He's a very smart guy, actually, with a lot of you know, sort of common folk wisdom. He got that simple talk. Yeah, exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Yeah, he's very funny, but... He's very funny. If you listen to him, he knows how to slice and dice his opponents.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Look, I said on a previous show that this organizational chart of open AI was ridiculously complicated and they should go clean it up. They should open up the books and straighten everyone out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And I also said that as part of that, they could give Sam Altman a CEO option grant and they should also give Elon some fair compensation for being the seed investor who put in the first $50 million and co-founder. And what you're seeing is, well, they're kind of doing that. They're opening up the books. They're straightening out the corporate structure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
They're giving Sam his option grant, but they didn't do anything for Elon. And I'm not saying this as Elon's friend. I'm just saying that it's not really fair to basically go fix the original situation. You're making it into a for-profit. You're giving everyone shares, but the guy who puts in the original seed capital doesn't get anything. That's ridiculous.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And what they're basically saying to Elon is, if you don't like it, just sue us. I mean, that's basically what they're doing. And I said that they should go clean this up, but they should make it right with everybody. So how do you not make it right with Elon? I haven't talked to him about this, but he reacted on X saying this is really wrong. It appeared to be a surprise to him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I doubt he knew this was coming. So the company apparently made no effort to make things right with him. And I think that that is a bit ridiculous.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
If you're gonna clean this up, if you're gonna change the original purpose of this organization to being a standard for-profit company where the CEO who previously said he wasn't gonna get any compensation is now getting $10 billion of compensation, how do you do that and then not clean it up for the co-founder who put in the first $50 million? That doesn't make sense to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
No, I saw a comment. Somebody commented like, oh, wow, it's like amazing to hear Chamath expand on topics throughout the constant eruptions by J-Cal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And when Reid was on our pod, he said, well, Elon's rich enough. Well, that's not a principled excuse. I mean, does Vinod ever act that way? Does Reid ever act that way? Do they ever say, well, you know, you don't need to do what's fair for me because I'm already rich? That's not a principled answer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Reid made that argument, and I think it's the best argument the company has. But let's think about that argument. Maybe Elon was busy that week. Maybe Elon already felt like he had put all the money that he had allocated for something like this into it because he put in a $50 million check, whereas Reid put in $10 million. We don't know what Elon was thinking at that time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Maybe there was a crisis at Tesla and he was just really busy. The point is Elon shouldn't have been obligated to put in more money into this venture. The fact of the matter is they're refactoring the whole venture. Elon had an expectation when he put in the $50 million that this would be a nonprofit and stay a nonprofit. And they're changing that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And if they change it, they have to make things right with him. It doesn't really matter whether he had a subsequent opportunity to invest. He wasn't obligated to make that investment. What he had an expectation of is that his $50 million would be used for a philanthropic purpose, and clearly it has not been.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, you have to go back pretty far for Joe Rogan to be a nobody. I mean, he had a TV show for a long time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
He was more like a stand-up comic for a while. He was a stand-up comic. Stand-up comic, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I think it does look pretty impressive. I mean, you can wear these Meta Orion glasses around And look like a human. I mean, you might look like Eugene Levy, but you'll still look like a semi-normal person. Whereas you can't wear the Apple Vision Pro. I mean, you can't wear that around.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I mean, it seems like a major advancement, certainly compared to Apple Vision Pro. I mean, you don't hear about the Apple Vision Pros anymore at all. I mean, those things came and went. It's pretty funny. It seems to me that Meta is executing extremely well. I mean, you had the very successful cost cutting, which Wall Street liked.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Zuck published that letter, which I give him credit for, regretting the censorship that Meta did, which was at the behest of the deep state. They made huge advancements in AI. I don't think they were initially on the cutting edge of that, but they've caught up. And now they're leading the open source movement with Lama 3.2. And now it seems to me that they're ahead on augmented reality.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Ever since Zuck grew out the hair, Don't ever cut the hair. It's like Samson.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Sax hurts your feeling when he's playing chess and not paying attention. Yeah, I'll be playing chess on my AR glasses while pretending to listen to you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
One point I want to just hit on is that the reason why these glasses have a chance of working is because of AI. I mean, Facebook initially made these... That's exactly my point. That's exactly my point. Facebook made these huge investments before AI was a thing. And in a way, I think they've kind of gotten lucky because what AI gives you is voice and audio.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So you can talk to the glasses or whatever the wearable is. It can talk to you. That's the five things. Like perfect natural language. And... Computer vision allows it to understand the world around you. So whatever this device is, it can be a true personal digital assistant in the real world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, why don't we get into the topic?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Sam Altman is reportedly... I thought they're converting to a C-Corp, no?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
B-Corp doesn't really mean anything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Oh my God, I'm like so sick of this topic of job loss or job disruption. I got in so much trouble last week. You asked a question about whether the upper middle class is going to suffer because they're all going to be put out of work by AI. And I just kind of brush it off, not because I'm advocating for that, but just because I don't think it's going to happen. Hmm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
This whole thing about job loss is so overdone. There's going to be a lot of job disruption. But in the case of coders, just as an example, I think we can say that coders, depending on who you talk to, are 10%, 20%, 30% more productive as a result of these coding assistant tools. But we still need coders. You can't automate 100% of it. And the world needs so many of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
The need for software is unlimited. We can't hire enough of them. At Glue, by the way, shout out if you're a coder who is afraid of not being able to get a job, apply for one at Glue. Believe me, we're hiring. I just think that this is so overdone. There's going to be a lot of disruption in the knowledge worker space. Like we talked about the workflow at call centers and service factories.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
There's going to be a lot of change. But at the end of the day, I think there's going to be plenty of work. for humans to do. And some of the work will be more in the blue collar space. And I agree with Jamath that this is a good thing. I think there's been perhaps an over emphasis on the idea that the only way to get ahead in life is to get like a fancy degree from one of these universities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And we've seen that many of the universities, they're just not that great, they're overpriced, you end up graduating with a mountain of debt, and you get a degree that is, you know, maybe even far worse than computer science, this is completely worthless. So if people learn more vocational skills, if they skip college, because they have a
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
a proclivity to do something that doesn't need that degree, I think that's a good thing and that's healthy for the economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Let's hear it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
It's not a bit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
It could be a bit. I'll write you a song next week.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Wait, these are all OpenAI employees? Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, I think Freeberg's right that we're at the beginning stages of, I think what will soon be referred to as the third Lebanon war, The first one was in 1982. Israel went into Lebanon and occupied it until 2000. Then it went back in 2006, left after about a month, and now we're in the third war. It's hard to say exactly how much this will escalate. The IDF is exhausted after the war in Gaza.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
There's significant opposition within Israel and within the armed forces to a big ground invasion of Lebanon. So far, most of the fighting has been Israel using its air superiority overwhelming firepower against southern Lebanon. And I think that if Israel makes a ground invasion, they're giving Hezbollah the war that Hezbollah wants.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I mean, Hezbollah would love for this to turn into a guerrilla war in southern Lebanon. So I think there's still some question about whether Netanyahu will do that or not. At the same time, it's also possible that Hezbollah will attack northern Israel. Nasrallah has threatened to invade the Galilee in response to what Israel is doing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
If Hezbollah and Israel are in a full-scale war with ground forces, it could be very easy for Iran to get pulled into it on Hezbollah's side. And if that happens, I think it's just inevitable that the United States will be pulled into this war. So yeah, look, I think we are drifting, and we have been drifting, into a regional war in the Middle East that...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
you know, ideally would not pull in the US. I think the US should try to avoid being pulled in, but I think very likely will be pulled in if it escalates. And then meanwhile, in terms of the war in Ukraine, I mean, I've been warning about this for two and a half years, how dangerous the situation was. And that's why we should have availed ourselves of every diplomatic opportunity to make peace.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And we now know, because there's been such universal reporting, that in Istanbul, in the first month of the Ukraine war, there was an opportunity to make a deal with Russia where Ukraine would get all this territory back. It's just that Ukraine would have to agree not to be part of NATO, would have to agree to be neutral and not part of the Western military bloc that was so threatening to Russia.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
The Biden administration refused to make that deal. They sent in Boris Johnson to scuttle it. They threw cold water on it. They blocked it. They told Zelensky, we'll give you all the weapons you need to fight Russia. Zelensky believed in that. It has not worked out that way. Ukraine is getting destroyed. It's very hard to get honest reporting on this from the mainstream media, but...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
The sources I've read suggest that the Ukrainians are losing about 30,000 troops per month. And that's just KIA. I don't even think that's wounded, that on a bad day, they're suffering 1,200 casualties. It's more than even during that failed counteroffensive last summer that Ukraine had. During that time, they were losing about 20,000 troops a month. So the level of carnage is escalating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Russia has more of everything, more weapons, more firepower, air superiority, and they are destroying Ukraine. And it's very clear, I think that Ukraine, it could be in the next month, it could be in the next two months, it could be in the next six months, I think they're eventually going to collapse. They're getting close to being combat incapable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And in a way, that poses the biggest danger, because The closer Ukraine gets to collapse, the more the West is going to be tempted to intervene directly in order to save them. And that is what Zelensky was here in the U.S. doing over the past week, is arguing for direct involvement by America in the Ukraine war to save him. How did he propose this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
He said, we want to be directly admitted to NATO immediately. That was his proposal. request. And he called this the victory plan. So in other words, his plan for victory is to get America involved in the war and fighting it for him. But that is the only chance Ukraine has.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And it is possible that the Biden-Harris administration will agree to do that, or at least agree to some significant escalation. So far, I think Biden, to his credit, has resisted another Zelensky demand, which is the ability to use America's long-range missiles and British long-range missiles, the storm shadows, against Russian cities. That is what Zelensky is asking for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Zelensky wants a major escalation of the war because that is the only thing that's going to save him, save his side and maybe even his neck personally. And so we're one mistake away from the very dangerous situation that Chamath and Freeburg have described.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
If a President Biden, who is basically senile, or a President Harris agree to one of these Zelensky requests, we could very easily find ourselves in a direct war with the Russians.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And the reason why this could happen is because we don't have a fair media that's fairly reported anything about this war. I mean, Trump is on the campaign trail making, I think, very valid points about this war, that the Ukrainian cause is doomed and that we should be seeking a peace deal and a settlement before this can spiral into World War III. That is fundamentally correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
But the media portrays that as being pro-Russian and pro-Putin. And if you say that you want peace, you are basically on the take from Putin and Russia. That is what the media has told the American public for three years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Jeffrey Sachs said it perfectly. You don't get a second chance in the nuclear age.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Chamath, you're right. I mean, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, all of America was huddled around their TV sets, worried about what would happen. There is no similar concern in this day and age about the escalatory wars that are happening. There's a little bit of concern, I think, about what's happening in the Middle East.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
There's virtually no concern about what's happening in Ukraine because people think it can't affect them. But it can. And one of the reasons it could affect them is because we do not have a fair debate about that issue in the US media. The media has simply caricatured any opposition to the war as being pro-Putin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Yeah, they're protesting too much. How can you say it's not a risk?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Too short. Too short.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
We lost Mira too?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, so the whisper numbers I heard was that their revenue run rate for this year was in the $4 to $6 billion range, which is a little higher than that. So you're right, if it's really more like 3.4, this valuation is about 50 times current revenue. But if it's more like 5 billion, then it's only 30 times. And if it's growing 100% year over year, it's only 15 times next year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So depending what the numbers actually are, the $150 billion valuation could be warranted. I don't think 15 times... Ford, ARR is a high valuation for a company that has this kind of strategic opportunity. I think it all comes down to the durability of its comparative advantage here. I think there's no question that OpenAI is the leader of the pack. It has the most advanced AI models.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
It's got the best developer ecosystem, the best APIs. It keeps rolling out new products. And the question is just how durable that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
The enforcer? He left too?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
advantages is there really a moat to any of this for example meta just announced llama 3.2 which can do voice and this is roughly at the same time that open ai just released its voice api so the open source ecosystem is kind of hot on open ai's heels the large companies google microsoft so forth. They're hot on their heels too, although it seems like they're further behind where Meta is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And the question is just, can OpenAI maintain its lead? Can it consolidate its lead? Can it develop some moats? If so, it's on track to be the next trillion dollar big tech company. But if not, it could be eroded and you could see the value of OpenAI get commoditized. And we'll look back on it as kind of a cautionary tale.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Rain Man, David Sachs. And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. I'm the queen of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Rain Man, David Sack. And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Queen of Kinwa.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, I'm not going to comment on the stock per se. Tesla's products are amazing. They seem to be really executing well there. I think that Elon foreshadowed on that earnings call what's coming in the future. I'm personally really curious about the Optimus robot. That has the potential to create an entirely new market and bring about something that we've only seen in science fiction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So to me, that's very interesting. I think in terms of the company's problems, I think they're mostly dealing with some macro forces. So first of all, the GDP growth rate has slowed to 1.6% in Q1. So this just came out. And that was a notable slowdown relative to expectations. So first of all, you're dealing with a slowing economy, it seems like.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Second, high interest rates mean that car payments are higher. If you want to finance the purchase of a car, your car payments is going to be a lot higher when interest rates are above 5%. And I think that has been a pretty big headwind for Tesla and really all the car companies over the last year or so. But I would say that I think both of those things are ultimately cyclical.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And what matters is Tesla's products. I would say the only issue they have that's a real long-term issue is just the Chinese competition. companies like BDY are ramping up production of knockoff products at low prices. And so managing the competition with China is probably the only one of these issues. That's, I think, probably a long term issue for them to deal with.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That's a really interesting point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, I already said optimist, but that's based on a long-term view.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
In the long-term, in terms of option value, I am the most intrigued by the robot play. And Elon has pointed out that once you have robots that are capable of doing lots of different jobs, pretty much any job you point them at, that we can have more robots on Earth than humans. So it's a big future market. So you got Optimus number one, and who is number two?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I agree with Chamath in the short term that ride-sharing could really reach its logical conclusion with robo-taxis. Remember when Uber first... gained steam and people were speculating about how big the market could be. There was a lot of giddy talk about how car ownership would change and you wouldn't need to buy a car anymore because you would just like use Uber all the time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And I actually, I went full Uber or I shouldn't say full. I went mostly Uber like within a couple of years of discovering that product.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah. So I thought the potential was there, but the problem is it was just too expensive. I mean, Uber is still quite expensive, and the most expensive piece of it is the human driving the car. It's all that labor cost.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So if you're able to charge for the ride purely based on fractionalizing the CapEx, and that CapEx isn't even that high because they're making these rollover taxis pretty cheaply now, And you're able to get so much more utilization out of a car. Exactly. Right? Because, I mean, how many hours a day do you drive your own car? Like an hour, maybe? Less.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
All right, J. Cal, you are the third investor in Uber. Are you worried about your investment? As I understand it, you still haven't sold, have you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
But it is a bribe. That is a bribe. It is, in fact, a bribe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
When are you saying that self-driving will be good enough to power just one robo taxi? Let's just forget about the scale. Just like when will it be good enough to have like a steering wheel free car?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I consider it a tip in advance of services. No, you're not tipping him for good service. You're tipping him to basically break in line.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, let me show you a video. This is one of my coworkers at Kraft took this. This wasn't me, but he was riding in the back of one of these robo taxis. I think this is San Francisco or New York. I'm not sure which one. But there is no one in- Yeah. the driver's seat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
You didn't make a reservation, and you're taking away somebody else's spot, and you're paying him to break the rules. You know what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I don't see a safety driver. Where's the safety driver?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I think it's underrated in terms of how significant this is going to be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
This is a Jaguar. Look at that. It's a Jaguar. So you're telling me that Tesla's not going to have something at least as good as this? Better. Soon?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
It's not a bribe. You're not even really doing him a favor. You're doing yourself a favor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I actually disagree that there's going to be 20 or 30 of these because I actually think that self-driving is really, really hard. And we know that Tesla has been spending years getting to this point, and then Google as well. So I'm not sure why there'd be more than two or three companies that can do self-driving.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
But I mean, you need a ton of data to make it work and you need a lot of data around edge cases. And so the advantage Tesla has is they actually have real cars on the road. They have real cars on the road with real driver minutes and with drivers using the previous version of FSD and making interventions. So they're constantly getting better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I think Google seems to be putting enough resources into this to get somewhere. But I don't think a lot of companies are going to figure this out. I think it's going to be somewhere between one and three companies figure this out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That's one of my coworkers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Because I had this argument with my- You gave him the 50 just for doing a good job, even if you had the reservation is what you're saying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Pretty cool. By the way, someone tweeted something kind of funny. They said, you know, it took Uber years and years and like a trillion dollars to finally get to profitability, and now they're about to get disrupted by robo-taxis. This is brutal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Oh my God. A pre-tip if he gives you a reservation when you don't have one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah, do you care about non-compete SACs? I think one of the reasons why the tech industry moves so fast and innovates so well is because of the happy coincidence that California doesn't allow non-competes, and so the industry's never had them. And as a result of that, like you're saying, the talent just flows freely to wherever the opportunity is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
and you have this dynamic in tech where the vcs and the talent all swarm the biggest and best opportunities and the newest platforms in a completely decentralized way and there's no little or no friction in doing that if you were to impose non-competes on all of the talent, there's going to be enormous delays and friction in them moving around to pursue opportunities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And so I think it's been very beneficial to the industry as a whole that we don't have that. Now, it's hard for me to speak to other industries, but I think that if you're looking to maximize the pace of innovation, you wouldn't have these employee non-competes. So on that level, I kind of agree with what Lena Kahn's done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That being said, I do think the Republicans' point was well taken in the sense that this was very aggressive rulemaking. I mean, I think you could legitimately argue that a change this big should be made by Congress, but I tend to think this is probably a positive change.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, Just because these agreements are no longer enforceable doesn't mean that businesses don't have moats. It just means you have to look in other places. I mean, you have to find network effects. You have to find data scale effects. There's other ways of building a moat. Besides just...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
trade secrets or, you know, patents is another category where, you know, in the tech industry, patents have never really mattered that much. And the only people who are seeking to litigate patents are basically patent trolls. Losers. So you want to find real durable moats, not these like legal arrangements that try to protect your business through... you know, these types of contracts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And by the way, one of the reasons why the industry moves so fast is because best practices get shared very quickly. And one of the ways that happens is that everybody is moving around to different companies. I mean, what's the average term of employment? One or two years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And you don't have to worry that if you've got some knowledge in your head, that you don't have to worry that if you use it at some new company, you're going to violate some trade secret. But the one thing everyone knows not to do is take anything with them in terms of, you know...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah, I mean, sometimes people do break the rules. I mean, the rule is you don't take any work product with you. You don't take any documents. No thumb drives, dipshit. Don't bring your old computer to the new job. Don't bring any old code. And there are people who violate those rules, and that is definitely breaking the rules. But you're allowed to take with you anything in your head.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And it is one of the ways that best practices sort of become more common.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, the overall theme is just that the national security state got everything it wanted. It got $100 billion to support forever wars. It got a TikTok ban. And this divestiture thing is a total fig leaf because it's not clear that China is going to allow TikTok to divest because it would set a horrible precedent. where the U.S.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
could just pass a law and then essentially steal the value of a Chinese company. So I don't think they're going to be able to divest. I think they're just going to get shut down. So the security state's getting its wish there. And then another bill that you didn't mention, which they just passed, is they approved the warrantless spying on Americans.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So the federal government can now spy on you and your communications without even getting a warrant. Ridiculous. Disgusting. The national security state just seems to get whatever it wants. And there was large bipartisan majorities for all of this.
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And the way they do it is they conjure all these fears to try and fear us into, well, if we don't agree to warrantless spying, then you could get a terrorist attack. Well, When has a warrant requirement ever gotten in the way of actually doing what we need to do to stop terrorism? Never. But that fear was enough to get Congress to authorize that legislation.
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They're keeping us involved in this forever war in Ukraine by this fear that Putin's somehow going to conquer all of Europe, which I think is total threat inflation. And this TikTok fear that somehow what videos we like is like precious data that's being shared with the CCP. Look, I'm willing to believe it's possible, but they never proved that.
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We debated this. We debated this. You showed one article from the New York Times about how, yeah, that's not proof, J. Cal. Those were two rogue employees who shared some data with
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But what was the judicial process or legislative process to prove that? Do they have hearings? Do they prove that? I understand that your hearsay and your view is good enough to ban it, but I'd actually like to see some proof.
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Handle it in a trade bill because what we've authorized here is not a TikTok ban. It is a sweeping new federal power to ban foreign adversary controlled applications. That's the new category. So we have a new category of foreign controlled apps, whatever that means. And the government can now use it to shut down apps they don't like. And I guarantee you, I think here's where this goes next.
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I think Telegram is next on the hit list. You have a Russian founder, okay? You have rumors for years, I'd say unproven, that somehow Telegram's been backdoored by the Russian government. You know, we've all heard those rumors. It's kind of like the CCP.
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Who cares?
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
He lives in Dubai, yeah. Here's what you're going to see. You're going to see, at some point, you'll see a media campaign that will be promoting the idea that Telegram is used by Hamas, by terrorists, by groups that the U.S.
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doesn't like, and that it's backdoored by Russia, and that it's got some shady investors on its cap table, and no politician's going to want to stand up and defend Telegram, and all the industry money that flows into Washington will be promoting this idea that we have to ban it because think about the market share gains that all of Telegram's competitors will make.
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And they're the ones wired into DC. So this is a foregone conclusion.
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I think that- That seems like a stretch. Not really. I think that the first step is you go get telegram because that's easy. You know, this guy is an agent of Putin, obviously. And anyone who says differently is themselves an agent of the Kremlin.
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That's how this rhetoric works. So first of all, they'll whack telegram. And by the way, we all know that companies are going to benefit enormously by slurping up that market share. And then if Biden wins a second term. They will eventually set their gun sights on X. But look, that's a battle because in X, you have a billionaire who has resources, who's willing to stand on his hind legs and fight.
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And so they're not going to do that before the election. But look, if we continue to see more weaponization and more censorship, I believe that eventually what they will do is try and push Elon to divest X. And look, all they got to do, listen, J. Cal, this act empowers the attorney general to open an investigation.
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So I think that in a second Biden term, they will open an investigation and to start ratcheting up the pressure on Elon to get rid of X, because that's clearly what they want.
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I'm basing that statement on published reports that China has said they're opposed to the forced sale of TikTok in the U.S., And I agree with you that it might change. But think about it if you're the Chinese government. You're adamantly opposed to this. You don't like the president. And you don't really care. You don't really care about tech entrepreneurs getting rich.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I mean, the founder CEO of TikTok lives in Singapore. Right. So why would they give a shit?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All right. I think Telegram can stick its head between its legs and kiss its ass goodbye because they're next on the hit list.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
The security state has used fears, like the one that Jake helped explain, to get a new power. And it's not a power to ban TikTok. It's a power to ban any foreign-controlled app. So goodbye, Telegram.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah, I mean, fine, whatever.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
It's over. It's over. Look, the national security state gets whatever it wants. It's pretty clear.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, how did this warrantless spying thing happen? I mean, look, I think the warrantless spying is actually worse than the TikTok ban.
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I mean, how are they not required to go to a court to get a warrant?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I think we still have FISA, but you don't have to go to the court to get a warrant. They can just do whatever they want.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Biden is playing a game of chicken with the tech industry and with, I'd say, suburban voters in general. I mean, is this what you want? At some point, you're going to have to say that this is not okay. I mean, first of all, you've got this 25% unrealized gains tax, which is a wealth tax.
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If you're somebody who's created a small business or a family farm, or you're a tech founder, if you get to qualify for for the amount, then you've got to pay 25%. And in order to raise the money for that 25%, you're going to get taxed on, let's say you try to sell 25% of the company, you're now going to get taxed 45% of that plus 13.3% California.
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So really you're going to have to sell more like 40% of the company just to pay off this unrealized gains tax. And by the way, you haven't made a dime yet. You haven't put a dollar in your bank account. This is pure confiscation. That's year one. What happens the following year?
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Let me tell you, I mean, so so this is in Biden's budget for next year. And this idea, this is not the first time we've seen this. It was in his original Build Back Better proposal. And the only reason that failed is because Manchin and Sinema voted against it. So Manchin and Sinema are not going to be in the Senate. next year, okay? They're not running for reelection.
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So if the Democrats have the trifecta, if Biden wins reelection and holds on to the Senate and House, but without Manchin and Sinema, I think you have to price in the strong possibility that this passes. I don't think you can just shrug it off.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, yeah, I mean, that's a loaded question because you're basically positioning this tax, which is really complicated in the details and the person getting asked the question doesn't understand it compared to the most popular program that the federal government has, which is social security. So obviously it's going to pull that way.
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I mean, look, you can ask a question in a way on a poll to get whatever answer you want to get to. I can basically prove to you that a majority of the American public is either for Ukraine funding or against Ukraine funding, depending on how you ask the question.
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And look, yeah, obviously, taxing people with $100 million of paper wealth is going to be more popular than sacrificing your Social Security, obviously. But that doesn't mean that this is a good proposal economically at all.
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It's not even going to save Social Security. I mean, what is this tax going to get us? It's going to destroy the startup ecosystem. It's not going to balance the budget. We're still spending way too much for that. It doesn't pay down the debt. It doesn't save Social Security. It's just more and more taxes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
But Balaji actually had a brilliant blog post about this called All It Takes Is All You Got. And what he pointed out is he was talking about the federal government's runaway deficits and debt and borrowing. And somebody responded to him with this chart that shows assets versus liabilities. This guy, Brent, who I guess is a
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
FOIL on X for biology sometimes, said, oops, you only showed one side of the balance sheet. Common mistake, though, basically saying that biology didn't know what he was talking about because biology was only showing the red, which is the government liabilities, the government debt. And he showed that, well, no, you have to include all the green bars. But what are the green bars?
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Those are private assets. And biology pointed out that, no, actually, you're proving my point. Because people like you just see all of the private assets of citizens of the United States as belonging to the government. And if you actually extend the red bars to the present value of all the long-term liabilities that this government has, it's more like $175 billion. So...
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People like this see the $160 trillion of private wealth as being on the balance sheet of the federal government and being used to offset the $175 trillion of liabilities. In other words... All it takes is all you got. That's the trajectory we're on.
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They're going to absolutely go after your retirement accounts because that's the only way they're going to pay off these liabilities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, there's another great tweet by a guy who said, laptop mercenary. I don't know this account, but he said something funny. He said, imagine being a California high earner. Options, either vote for your own financial liquidation or vote for the orange man. Yeah, it's brutal. Checkmate, dude. Checkmate. You guys just got to put on the red MAGA hat. It's happening.
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You don't have to wear the red MAGA hat. When you go into that polling booth, nobody knows the button you're pushing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Jason, Biden has had four years to prove that he's a moderate. He's had four years to prove that he represents the normalcy that he promised to us when he first got elected. Yep. That's been refuted. I mean, how much more does it take for you to understand that his policy is radical? He combines the foreign policy of Dick Cheney with the economic policy of Elizabeth Warren.
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How much more does it take? Are you going to vote for your own financial liquidation? Because that's what we're talking about.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think he's a great vote.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
For Democrats.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
J. Cal, here are your choices, okay? You can vote for Trump or you can give up the ski lodge. What's it going to be?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I'll tip the bartender to keep the ice cubes cold. The bartender got $100 just for keeping the ice cubes cold.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, we kind of glossed over what the real news was, which was that Meta released Lama 3, which they had spent billions of dollars creating in a completely open source way. And the testing on Lama 3 is that it's comparable to GPT-4. And I think this is what Chamath means by scorched earth, is that we now have a free model that's as good as GPT-4. Best in class. Or at least tied for best in class.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
There are some slight differences, and we've been playing around with it. It is faster and cheaper than using ChatGPT4, but the context window is smaller. I think it has only an 8,000 token context window. So that's something that the open source community is going to need to work on is rolling out foundation models that have a bigger context window.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Cino for you, Cino for you. Let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Nonetheless, the point is that at least for now, until OpenAI comes out with GPT-5, which is supposed to happen soon, the open source community has kind of caught up with the top closed source model, which is open AI.
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Well, I still think that OpenAI is ahead because the scuttlebutt about ChatGPT-5 is that it's amazing and it's a big improvement over GPT-4. And supposedly it's going to come out any day, week, or month. So if GPT-5 comes out and knocks our socks off in a few weeks, then we're going to see that, oh, they're actually a cycle ahead. of the open source community.
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But as of this moment, in terms of what's been publicly released, I think it's fair to say that open source is largely caught up with open AI. And this is why, you know, bring up this tweet by Naveen Rao, who is a founder who created the company Mosaic ML, which has sold to Databricks or Unicorn Outcome.
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And he says, I don't think everyone has comprehended the massive disruption and distortion that's going to happen in the Gen AI market due to Lama 3. Boats will be destroyed and investments will go to zero. Just like everything in Gen AI, this will all happen fast.
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So, you know, it's a similar reaction to what Chamath is saying, which is we have an open source model now that erases billions of dollars of private investment.
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Here's the question is, These are form documents at the end of the day. And form documents don't write themselves. Lawyers write them. And when you get a novel change in one of these documents, somebody thought that through and thought it'd be a good idea and put it in there.
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And like Jamal said, there is a way to potentially defend that. It's not like these provisions don't exist. It's just a novel application to try and claw back someone's already vested equity from a company on behalf of these things. Well, that is not...
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
No, that's completely non-standard. I'm just saying that these provisions exist in other contexts, and their application as a clawback of vested employee equity is something that I don't think any of us have heard before.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Yeah, exactly. So my point is just this didn't happen as an accident. Somebody made a strategic business decision to do this because they thought it would be in the company's interest.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Good, good. Yeah, good week. What's going on?
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Once you leave a company and you vested equity, you don't lose it. I mean, as long as you, you have some period in which to exercise your option if it's an option rather than stock. But other than that, I've never heard of a situation where employees can lose their vested equity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I mean, I guess that's right.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Look, I think the question here is, is it credible that they keep having these accidents and coincidences?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Judge Sacks says there's one too many coincidences, you know? Look, I think like Chamath said, you could have just owned this and said that, defended it in the way he said, and said, but you know what? It was too aggressive and we pulled it back.
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And by the way, I mean, because it is such an industry-leading company, I think we could end up with some very bad fair use precedents or laws because Scarlett Johansson is so sympathetic as a plaintiff compared to OpenAI.
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I've never done that before.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
And unless they show us some discovery that proves that they really did hire the voice actor and all the rest of it, I mean, this could lead to some very bad precedents for the industry around fair use.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
There's one more drama going on. It's not just drama. I mean, there's now a lawsuit. I think it's a very interesting case.
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I think it's a legitimately interesting case. If it goes the distance, it's going to create some really interesting precedents.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
No, it didn't quite land.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Let's call this what it is, a mass resignation. And we don't really know why. I mean, apparently they were promised something like 20% of the computing resources of OpenAI, and they didn't get that. I definitely read that somewhere. And so that is part of it, I think, but we don't really know the whole story.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
And when you look at this issue of the mass resignation, and then you look at the issue of the clawback, of vested employee equity, you're like, well, wait a second, maybe they felt like they needed that claw back in order to deter all these people who are leaving from spilling the beans about whatever was upsetting them. Something clearly upset them, right?
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Yeah, and then like you said, the board did fire him, and the only explanation they provided was that he wasn't being candid, which at the time we thought was an incredibly damning statement. And we thought we'd get some explanation of it. We never got any explanation whatsoever.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
You know, I thought that the board was being incompetent because I thought that either they fired him overly hastily or they had reason to fire him, but then they communicated poorly. And, you know, you add all these things up and it definitely seems like a lot of smoke.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Well, the company that everyone compares NVIDIA to or asks the question about whether a historical comparison should be made is Cisco. So there's an article in Motley Fool saying, is NVIDIA doomed to be the next Cisco? There was one in Morningstar called NVIDIA 2023 versus Cisco 1999, will history repeat itself?
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The reason they're asking these questions is that if you go back to the dot-com boom in 1999, you can pull up the stock performance chart, you can see that Cisco had this incredible run And if you overlay the stock price of NVIDIA, it seems to be following that same trajectory. And what happened with Cisco is that when the dot-com crash came in 2000, Cisco stock lost a huge part of its value.
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Obviously, Cisco is still around today and it's a valuable company, but it just hasn't ever regained the type of market cap it had. The reason this happened is because Cisco got commoditized. So to Chamath's point, the success and market cap of that company attracted a whole bunch of new entrants, and they copied Cisco's products until they were total commodities.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So the question is, will that happen to Nvidia? And I think the difference here is that at the end of the day, networking equipment, which Cisco produced, was pretty easy
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Right. Whereas if you look at NVIDIA, these GPU cores are really complicated to make. And Jensen makes this point that the H100, for example, has thousands of components and it weighs like 70 pounds or something like that.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Yeah, it's like a mainframe. It's not just like a little chip. So it's a much more complicated product to copy. And then on top of that, they're already in the R&D cycle for the next chip, right? Whatever it's going to be, the H200 or whatever it is. And so... As people try to catch up with H100, they're going to be on to H200.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So I think you can make the case that NVIDIA has a much better moat than Cisco. And just by the way, on this Cisco comparison, just to finish the thought, people were making this comparison six months ago. And what's happened since then? NVIDIA's had two blowout quarters. And the competitors don't seem to be that much closer, maybe a little bit closer. But so...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
You know, look, I think it's an open question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think we should do State of the Economy and then do Science Corner.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think we should end on our balls. Okay, great. Let's end with our balls.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The ball play should come a little bit later in the program.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. Do you guys think they sound the same?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, look, I tend to agree with Jamal on this. I think this is a classic story of who do you believe? Do you believe the experts or do you believe in the intuitions of the American people? And the experts have some statistics on their side. But, you know, the old saying goes, there's lies, damn lies and statistics. And then the American people have their actual lived experience on their side.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Where'd you get that name from?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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They know what they're feeling. And I tend to trust in that. And obviously, we're in an election year, and the press knows that. So they're trying to do this big cleanup effort for Biden. But why is it that people are feeling this way? Number one is inflation. And if you look at this chart, you can see that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you look at household net worth since the start of the Biden presidency and compare it to the change in household net worth at a similar point in Trump's presidency, in nominal terms, it appears to be the same. But then if you adjust for inflation, in other words, you look at the real household net worth, you can see that household net worth during the Biden term has been flat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think it sounds pretty darn similar. Dead on. I mean, I don't know if it's dead on. Honestly, it sounds like a digitally altered version of her voice. That's what it sounds like to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Actually, it's down.
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Because of inflation.
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Where did the inflation come from? Yeah. Well, Larry Summers warned in the first quarter of the Biden administration that if you pass an unnecessary $2 trillion of COVID stimulus, you would produce inflation. The inflation rate when Biden came into office was 1.7%. We had a rip-roaring economy, but he started stimulating. And we talked about Bidenomics is this new policy that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
of pumping trillions of dollars of stimulus into a healthy economy, which we've never done before. What happened? Inflation went all the way to 9%. So people's wages have not kept up with the rate of inflation. This is why they feel worse off. When you actually look at purchasing power, people are worse off in terms of their actual ability to buy things. Their purchasing power has gone down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Wages may have gone up a little bit, but they have not gone up as much as inflation. So people feel worse off. Now, Larry also had that, I think, really informative study showing that inflation would have peaked at 18% if you include cost of borrowing. So again, to Chamath's point, if you're trying to get a mortgage and you're paying 7.5%, 8%, you'll feel way worse off.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you need to buy a car and make a car payment, you feel much worse off. If you've got credit card debt, which has now hit an all-time record of something like $1.1 trillion, your credit card rates have never been higher. So the average American feels worse off because cost of borrowing has a huge impact on their household finances.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And that's why if you read like one of the last paragraphs in that story that you referred to, they use the key words, the consumer feels squeezed, the average household feels squeezed. They may not have lost their job yet, but they've lost purchasing power and they've lost net worth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the press can gaslight us all day long about how wonderful things are under Biden, but the average American, I think, understands differently based on their own experience.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It was her voice, but then they changed it. So either that or they hired a voice actor who sounds like her. And that's what the company has said is that they hired a voice actor. But they won't tell us who the voice actor is. They said because of privacy concerns, which doesn't quite make sense to me because... when you hire an actor, they want the credit, you know? Yeah. So get more work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
The company could just clear this whole thing up by saying exactly who the voice actor is. And why wouldn't the voice actor want that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Look, fast food's a pretty competitive business. I mean, I think the reason why McDonald's is raising prices is because everyone else is raising prices. I mean, otherwise, they'd be losing share. And just go to the grocery store and look at the price of steak or chicken or whatever, or eggs. It's gone up tremendously over the last few years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's not relevant. I mean, yeah, look, obviously we know that the price of eggs doesn't affect me. Okay, great. I'm in a fortunate position. That's not what the topic is. The topic is what is the impact on the American people and why do 70% of the people in that poll feel that we're in a recession even though the experts tell us we're not? And I've explained it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Let me ask you a question, Tomas. Do you have a sommelier for your fruit? I mean, you seem like a real connoisseur here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
This is why Sam's call to Scarlett's agents or her two days before they launched is such a damning piece of evidence because it sounds like he's trying to shut the barn door on something they've already done, right? They've got this demo ready. They're going to launch it in two days. They're realizing maybe they don't have the rights to use her voice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, but you had that same dynamic when consumer sentiment was much higher in a previous administration and people were feeling much better about the economy. So that's a constant.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, when the economy was down 33% year over year.
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Both parties thought that we were headed for a depression. And so we had a bipartisan stimulus bill during an actual crisis. Once the crisis was over, there was no need to keep spending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You're missing the fact that Trump had 2020 when we had the COVID depression, or what could have been, when the economy was down 30% year over year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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By the way, did you guys see? Hold on a second. Let me just make this one point. Just because both parties have been irresponsible in spending doesn't mean that we can't make further judgments about who's been worse. Sure. What's happened in the Biden administration is just quantitatively worse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So you have to contact her to get those rights. But anyone who knows anything about Hollywood knows you're not going to be able to make a deal with a major star to use her name and likeness in two days. It's impossible. So this seems like a really crazy thing to do. I mean, I think the mere fact that he contacted them and then tweeted out her, which shows that Scarlett was on the brain,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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There was no crisis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Look at Trump's spending before COVID. Look at Trump's spending before COVID. It was like a 5% bump on Obama's spending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Those are really damning pieces of evidence, I think, in this lawsuit. And I think it's going to feed into our case.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Wait, are people donating their balls to science? Is that how this is happening?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I just want to state on the record, I don't want my balls used that way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Why not just start laughing before you deliver the joke next time? I'm trying, I'm trying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think, I think baby Catherine is biodegradable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
There's like a marketing... I want my bananas to come with packaging on them. I don't want anyone else's fingerprints. I don't want anyone's fingerprints on my bananas.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Yeah, but I could touch it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I want everything to come in hermetically sealed plastic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I thought that was TikTok.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
There's so many things that we have to panic about. To your point, it's hard to attribute to one thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Exactly. So the moral of the story is don't try to do the right thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I don't know. But anyway, I just want to- I think this stuff is unavoidable. I really do. That's why I'm not too worried about it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I thought this was a science corner I could finally use.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
There you go. Yeah. It's just brass balls.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Gregory Glenn Ross.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
You have to have these. That's Alec Baldwin, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
That was great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So shout out to Warren Harris and Nick Calacanis. You finally landed the plane.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Well, I don't know. I mean, hold on. let's say you're casting a movie and you know, you can't get Scarlett Johansson for it. And so you tell the casting director, get me a Scarlett Johansson type. I think you can do that. Okay. Obviously you can't, you can't use her name. You can't use her likeness, but you could hire a different actor who might look or sound like Scarlett Johansson.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
If the company actually did that and they did it nine months ago, this is what the statement they put out. I think they've got a decent defense. Yeah. But because they may, I don't know if we believe that. I mean, again, why don't you just put out the name of the actual actor, that voice actor that you used?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So they should just license Gwyneth's voice. Obvious.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Well, which one did you call two days before the demo?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Yeah, if they never reached out to Scarlett, they could claim it's just a coincidence. But they called her twice. They called her some months before and then two days before, which indicates panic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
The sentence is that Scarlett Johansson is going to end up owning more of this company than Sam Altman. That's what's going to happen. Look, they call her two days before. Why do you do that? Guilty. Because you know you have a problem and you're trying to put the horse back in the barn. Now what they should have done is as soon as she says no, you just change the voice completely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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They claim it's an accident. Once they get caught with their hand in the cookie jar, which, like you said, Chamath, is just a heavy-handed agreement. It's in the company's interest to do this. Yeah. They just say it was an accident, just like the Scarlett thing is an accident or a coincidence. It's just getting hard to believe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, I mean, I support the idea of colorblind meritocracy. I mean, I agree with Chamath and Freeberg that the traits that you're born with are not skills or qualifications. They're just the accidents of your birth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And what we should be trying to create is a society where those things don't matter and everyone has the same ability and opportunities for advancement based on how hard they work and their skills and this concept of merit. And I think that Supreme Court decision gets us closer to that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Remember that the reason why that Supreme Court decision happened, or what the plaintiffs were arguing, is that the previous regime on college campuses was unfairly discriminating against Asian Americans. Because whenever you try to engineer the classes to a certain proportion of the population, somebody has to win and somebody has to lose. And the students who were losing were Asian Americans.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And in many cases, these Asian Americans were first generation immigrants or they were coming from disadvantaged backgrounds. And yet their population was engineered to a smaller number than merit would otherwise suggest. And now you're seeing it. In this new class at MIT, the percentage of Asian Americans has increased somewhat. So I think it's good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, we're reducing a form of discrimination. That discrimination may have originally started for good reasons to try and create a remedy against a different kind of historical discrimination. Nonetheless, it discriminated against talented Asian students. And I think now that that's been fixed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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To some degree, I do. I mean, look, if you have a student who gets, let's call it a 1450 on the SAT, but they've got tutors and classes. Yep. And they're growing up in an environment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Right. They're getting the best teachers, the best schools, the best environment. And then you take a kid who grew up in, I don't know, like a dangerous park. of the inner city where there's shootings happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Right. They don't have access to the best schools or best funded schools, best teachers. And let's say that person gets a 1400 on their SAT, which one is better? I mean, certainly if they got a 1450 and you're comparing two equal scores, it's really clear that the disadvantaged student probably has more raw talent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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To be honest, I think schools like that are better. I mean, I think probably Virginia Tech is better than Harvard. And the reason is because they're less infected with the whole woke DEI ideology that now pervades these like top schools. So the students are more likely to learn something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I agree with that.
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And they're not new brands. They're old brands. And we've seen that these old brands depreciate over time. And people read way too much into them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I don't necessarily think that benefits the undergrads. I mean, first of all, these campuses... Well, tell us about your experience at Stanford.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Stanford technically is not in the Ivy League. The Ivy League is like an East Coast club, whereas Stanford was kind of the West Coast disruptor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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They've performed. I mean, I think one of the problems with the whole DEI policy, whether you want to do it based on race or socioeconomics or whatever it is that you're doing, is it keeps happening at every layer of the stack. And at some point, you just need to say, look, we've made up for whatever came before. And now it just has to be about that person's performance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
We need to stop putting our thumb in the scale and just hire the best person. My view is you could probably do that after undergrad. Like there's no need to keep artificially adjusting the weights of how you hire people after undergrad, but yet you have all these programs that keep trying to make the decision based on something other than merit. And I think that's the part that needs to stop.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, yeah. I mean, I predicted this would happen, and I didn't know exactly how we would get the correction, but now it's come out. By the way, it's not just this 818,000 jobs. If you look at the last 12 months and add up all the restatements, it's been something like 1.2 million. I can share the chart on that. but this is quite remarkable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, the election's going to be a nail-biter, and it's going to really come down to a few thousand votes or a few tens of thousands of votes in swing states. I think we've known that now for a while, I would say since Biden abdicated and they did the hot swap.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think the most interesting poll numbers over the past week is, if you look at polymarket, that it has swung back to Trump being in the lead over the past week as opposed to Harris. Last week, I think Harris... was favored to win by quite a bit.
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And you have to ask the question, well, how does this happen during her own Democratic convention, which is supposed to be nothing but a four-day infomercial for the Democrat candidate? It's a coronation. So she should be getting nothing but a bump, and instead it seems to be the opposite.
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And I think the reason is, is because the more substance her campaign puts out, the more policies it reveals, the worse she does. First, they had her give that economic speech last Friday on price gouging and price controls. And we spent a lot of time last week talking about why price controls would be a disastrous economic policy. Subsequent to that, there were stories that came out about
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her campaign supporting these huge tax hikes that were in the original Biden-Harris budget, including a 25% unrealized gains tax, which we can talk more about. But I think just to boil it down, I think the more the public learns, the more we learn about what she would do as president, the worse she does.
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And they've now got to run out the clock for another, I don't know what, 70, 80 days in terms of running a campaign that's substance-free, that's just completely on vibes, that's about joy without answering any questions, without doing any press interviews.
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And I think we predicted some time ago that that just was not going to be sustainable, that at some point they're going to have to tell us what they think. And as they do that, the more they do that, I think the more her polls will correct.
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About a year ago, I tweeted really fairly casually that there was a hot jobs report. This was around June of 2023, that I didn't know where they're finding all these jobs. I mean, all I see is layoffs. That was my reaction based on not just what I was seeing in tech, and all of us, especially last year, were seeing nothing but layoffs in tech. It was also feedback from
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real estate investors that I knew. I mean, all new real estate projects had basically stopped because the cost of borrowing was so high and there was a credit crunch. So new construction projects had stopped. Refis were very hard to get. It's just that everywhere I was looking in the economy and the feedback I was getting from people, things looked... pretty dismal.
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Well, I would consider prediction markets to be an additional tool that we should consider side by side with polls. And they both have their pluses and minuses. The advantage of polls is that you're actually talking to real people as opposed to bettors. However... They're very dependent on sampling and getting the sampling correct. I mean, most of these polls talk to maybe 1,000 respondents.
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These are people who are willing to pick up the phone from an unknown number. That right there is probably a huge source of bias because I don't do that. And then based on that sample, they're going to predict how millions and millions of people are going to vote. Well, everything depends on the composition of that sample. Which thousand voters do you talk to?
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Do you weight them based on likelihood of voting or demographic characteristics and so on? So the polls can be notoriously inaccurate. We've seen that many times. And that's why there's a margin of error. Sometimes the margin of error is even wrong. So in any event, it's a tool, but it's a tool that almost by definition is going to be wrong because of sampling problems.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
You look at prediction markets, and it's a totally different type of voting mechanism where bettors are willing to put their money where their mouth is, and they've got real skin in the game, and they're able to make a prediction based on their willingness to lose money. Now, there can be problems with that too. Number one, the betting market can be very thin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Sometimes there's just not a lot of money that's trading hands. So I think with a lot of those VP picks, you can move the VP market by putting just a very small amount of money because the market wasn't very liquid. So you have to kind of look at how deep and liquid the prediction market is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then I'd say second, the issue with prediction markets is they, and this could be an advantage, is they move a lot based on small things because people are just constantly updating their forecast. I would argue that maybe that's an advantage is that you could see the trend more easily in a prediction market.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Yeah, I would mostly use the betting markets as a measure of how sentiment is shifting. So, for example, on election night, the betting market is going to convert to 100% in favor of one candidate or another, whereas the actual votes are not going to convert to 100%. You could have an election in, say, Pennsylvania, where one candidate gets 50.1% of the vote, the other candidate gets 49.9%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
The betting market's going to converge to 100-0 because it's predicting who's going to win. It's a binary yes or no as opposed to where the actual vote tolls come out. The polling is trying to approximate where the vote tolls are going to come out, right, with a huge margin of error.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And yet the media was continuously putting out stories about hot jobs reports. And we've been getting this now for roughly a year. And then what happens is that there's a revision. And the revisions have always gone in one direction. They're always revision down. I mean, if the revisions were completely sort of neutral and arbitrary, you'd expect it to be like a coin flip.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So the polls are never going to give you as crisp and decisive an answer as the prediction markets, but the prediction markets can also be wrong, as we've seen. They're only as good as the people making the bets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think what history shows, the VP pick doesn't matter that much. People vote for what's happening at the top of the ticket. And I would argue the reason why J.D. has the polling he does is because there's a couple of reasons. Number one is just media bias. And there was an interesting report showing that the
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
You might have 10 revisions and five would be up and five would be down, but they've all been down. So what I saw was a pattern of revisions down. And now we've seen the biggest one. So it's not altogether surprising to me. And in hindsight, you know, when I tweeted that a year ago, I got this like hysterical reaction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
media's coverage of the Harris campaign was 84% positive, whereas the coverage of the Trump campaign was 89% negative. That actually seems to understate the bias that I see out there. But look, this is the number one reason why J.D. has a negative rating is because the media is defining him. I would say furthermore, J.D. is out there talking about ideas, and I give him credit for that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
But because he is an idea man, and he's also a writer, and he's said interesting things in the past, and sometimes occasionally a sarcastic thing or two in the past, the media has been able to take those things out of context and harp on them relentlessly. On the other hand, you take someone like Tim Waltz, and he's out there. He's not really talking about ideas.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, every time he goes up there and speaks, it's like a pep talk. I mean, if I wanted to hire a guy to give the halftime speech to my team, he'd be the guy. You know, if I wanted him out there puffing up a team, talking about how we got to all give 110%, he's the guy for that. But he's not really talking about ideas. He's not going on the Sunday shows. You look at JD.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, I've watched a couple of his campaign stops. I mean, the guy is really sharp. And when he goes on the Sunday show, they are pitching nothing but fastballs at him. And he's hitting it out of the park every time. And Harris and Waltz are just not doing that. They're not even appearing on those shows.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I don't think they could survive 20 minutes of harsh questioning the way that the media pitches at J.D. every time he goes on a campaign stop and takes questions or he goes on a Sunday show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, like it was one of these tweets that all of a sudden everyone's like quote tweeting and telling me to stay in my lane. I'm a VC and I don't know the numbers and. It was like I hit some sort of nerve. And, you know, whenever that happens, you're usually over the target in some way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. So the question is like, why were they so triggered? And I think the reason is that on some level, people were intuiting that the numbers didn't really make sense. It didn't really match up with what we're seeing in the economy. And now a year later, we have the proof of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I think just because someone has served in government doesn't mean that they truly even understand what the problems are or that they're even the master of government. I mean, you saw this over the past week. We talked about the 818,000 jobs that didn't exist. They asked Gina Raimondo, the Secretary of Commerce, about this, and she just said that's a Trump lie.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And they said, no, actually, it's the Bureau of Labor Statistics report that is under U.S. Secretary of Commerce. She said, I'm not familiar with that. So you have people running the government who don't even know what their own departments are doing. Now, I think it's just a function of the fact that government is so big and out of control that no one even understands what it does.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I think it's more important to have someone who at least has some experience in the private sector who truly understands how jobs are created, how wealth is created, what causes inflation. Okay, we've talked about this before. What causes inflation is the printing of too much money. It's government spending too much. Yeah, shocking. It is not corporate greed because corporate greed is a constant.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's not price gouging.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, actually, I think I think that's right. I mean, I think that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are now the thought leaders and really the beating heart of the Democrat Party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I think what's happened is the Republican Party has moved to right-wing populism and the Democrats in response to that have concluded that they need to basically move to left-wing populism in order to compete with that. So both parties are becoming fairly populist. Now, what does left-wing populism mean? It basically means soak the rich, right? It's a strong element of class warfare to it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We're going to make the rich pay for everything and the rich are the problem. It's this fundamental unfairness of the economy that's causing all these problems. And I think you've heard that over and over again at the DNC. I mean, just the clips that I've seen, this has been a recurring theme is the hatred towards billionaires and rich people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's certainly a confiscation. I mean, basically, this tax is directed at centimillionaires and billionaires to basically take 25% of what they have. I mean, that's basically what this is about. There's a good reason why realization is one of the core concepts of our tax code. Realization gives you two really important things. Number one, you have a sale price, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Realization means that you sell the asset, so we know exactly how much you made. Number two, you have the liquidity to pay the tax bill because you've just sold the asset. The problem with an unrealized gains tax is both those issues. Number one... We don't know what the asset's really worth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's easier to put a value on a publicly traded asset, but a private asset, it's very hard to know exactly how much it's worth. The valuation's bouncing around all the time. What this bill would do is create, I guess, a whole new process and bureaucracy to try and put a value on that. But it's going to be really complicated to comply with.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
All of us are going to need to hire a whole new legion of lawyers and accountants. So, I mean, you're talking about a whole new... essentially tax bureaucracy that's going to spring up around this concept. On the liquidity part, you're being taxed a huge amount without having the cash to pay the tax bill.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And yes, they've tried to mitigate that by creating this installment plan, but you're still going to need to go out and sell large chunks of your company every time you get an up round in order to pay the tax bill. And that means that you're losing ownership of your company. All these assets are going to be dumped on the market. And you're basically starving the market of capital, actually, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Because all these people who are owners of their company are going to have to go out and sell a big chunk of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, you know who said something similar? Back when Mitt Romney ran for president, he was caught on tape saying something to the effect that 47% of Americans were net government recipients. And if that number ever got to 51%, then basically the free market system would be finished because it'd be more takers than makers. Tipping point. More takers than makers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And he was forced to apologize for that. But there is a fundamental logic to it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, I think that's fair. I think that's totally fair. I'm not disparaging the efforts of legitimate government workers because you do need a government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Right. But the point is that when you become a government employee, you have a vested interest in government. You should have a vested interest in the private sector as well because that's what generates the tax revenue to fund the government. But as a practical matter, government workers vote massively in a block for the Democrat Party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And in many ways, the Democrat Party is the party of government workers. You look in California, for example, the various – government workers unions are the most powerful players in California politics.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Oh yeah. Vastly, vastly more Democrat. I mean, look, the Democrats are the party of government. Absolutely. I'm surprised by that because I would think that within the ranks of the military... If you look at the enlisted military, there's a lot of Republicans in there. A lot of military families, especially Republican. But you look at just government workers, vastly more Democrat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I think there's other things happening as well. I mean, look... American capitalism requires a robust middle class. And in many ways, I think globalization has hollowed out the middle class. There used to be a large middle class in this country of blue collar workers who worked with their hands. They were not knowledge workers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And they worked in factories and they did kind of blue collar work and they could still make a middle class living. And I think that over the last decade, 20 to 30 years as a result of globalization, millions and millions of those jobs went away and millions of factories shut down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So the middle class of America that's not, again, that's not knowledge workers, were really pressured by basically throwing open American markets to foreign goods. Now, you could argue that that lowered prices and that created consumer surplus and the benefits of trade.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
But I'm just pointing out that there was a real price in terms of having this free trade that led to huge trade deficits, which is this vast American middle class of people who worked with their hands got put out of work. And I think that removes a huge incentive for people to be invested and to have a vested interest in the free market system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, those are two very different bills. I mean, the Inflation Reduction Act, just the name itself should tell you that it doesn't do little. I was joking.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Yeah, look, who benefited from that? Our friends who are energy investors, who you know who I'm talking about in our chat room. Easy, easy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Take it easy over there. I'm not going to say his name.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
But his nickname is Deep State, but he's an energy investor. He said that this bill was the biggest bonanza that they've ever seen He said these guys were running around like, you know, it was like the Beverly Hillbillies where they struck a gusher and they're running around with pans trying to collect the oil. That's what he basically said this was.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But it was a bunch of energy investors at Stanford. Like a diamond mine exploding. And the manna was coming down from heaven and they're just going to collect as much of it. That was a huge boondoggle and payoff for these green energy investors. That's who it went to. It did not benefit the middle class at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
The CHIP Act is more complicated because it does create incentives for manufacturing in America. And moreover, there is a national security element to it because we need these advanced chips. We can't be totally dependent on chip makers who are in foreign places within 100 miles of the Chinese mainland, right? So that one's a little more complicated. Meanwhile, Intel is imploding.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, just to finish the thought, I mean, the issue with the CHIPS Act is that there's a lot of good reasons to believe that even if we incentivize this, we're still hopelessly behind. And the CHIPFAPs that we're building are just, they're still years behind what they have in Taiwan, for example. So it's not clear it's going to work is my point, but I think the motivations make a lot more sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Uber rally to what's the price now? 80 bucks or something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
We need someone to generate a meme. JCal at $40 a share. JCal at $80 a share. Republican.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
By the way, can I just make one final point on the whole unrealized gains tax? Absolutely. is that would raise about 400 billion a year for all these tax hikes. That's only 20% of the deficit we're running right now. We don't get anywhere close to closing the deficit with all these tax hikes. What that means is you have to cut spending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Moreover, she's got a bunch of new programs to increase that deficit. And we know that that $400 billion number is an optimistic scenario because like Chamath was saying, the rich people are going to flee. They're going to try and move their wealth into structures or places where it's hard to tax.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Yeah, it's not going to work. You're right, J. Cal. In France, in Norway, this was tried. Every time wealth taxes get tried, what happens is the wealth flees, and you never raise as much as you think you're going to. And then what happens is in order to raise that money, they have to apply it to more people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Elizabeth Warren already wants to apply it to Americans with a net worth of $50 million, not $100 million. So this whole idea that, well, this won't affect me because I'm not one of those rich people – The IRS was created and when they created the income tax, it was originally only supposed to apply to less than the top 1%. Okay, I got to go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Take care, boys.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
You think that seems wise? Well, I think the Fed isn't sure that inflation is a solved problem. I mean, I think that Powell is a little bit reticent to start the rate cutting cycle because he doesn't know for sure if inflation could tick back up. This first cut is in a way the most important one because it signals a regime change that we're beginning the rate cut cycle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And what he doesn't want to do is cut any amount and then be proven wrong. And we get a bad inflation report. And then all of a sudden he has to raise it again. So he doesn't want to be caught in that position. But I do think that the economy is obviously showing significant weakness. Inflation is not completely solved, but it's down to 2.9%, at least it has a two handle on it now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And so, yeah, I think the market is pricing in these rate cuts for a reason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, now that we know that the jobs picture was inflated by 1.2 million jobs over the last, call it roughly a year or 14 months, I think we know that this is not like a perfectly soft landing. I mean, I think that... The economy is a little bit shaky and is being propped up by massive amounts of government spending like we talked about on a previous episode.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
We're running unsustainably high levels of deficit and debt. We're running, what, $2 trillion a year deficits right now. And what are we getting for that? We're not getting a super robust economy. We're getting an economy that's narrowly staying out of recession. So it's a little bit of a scary picture, I think. that the economy is so shaky and we're spending so much money to prop it up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
We'll just have to see what happens.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
This study is like the vasectomy truck at the DNC. I mean, it's meant to emasculate men. That's the only interpretation of it. It's total nonsense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
and kind of broken when short rates go above long rates the yield curve inverts and it's always been the prelude to a recession but the recession doesn't come when the yield curve inverts it usually comes when the yield curve D inverts and the reason for that is because the Fed now sees weakness and dramatically cuts the short rates so in other words it jacks up the short rates to control inflation that works it trickles through the economy the economy cools down and
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then the Fed says, oh, maybe we've overcorrected. They slam on the brakes and then they cut rates to basically make up for the effect on the economy. So the yield curve has finally de-inverted. And the question is just, do we now get that recession or did the Fed manage this to a soft landing? I don't think we know. I'm not
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I'm not like calling a recession, but this is the thing that people are concerned about. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Yeah. I think it's now becoming really clear that call centers are going to be the first really big disruption caused by AI. Yeah. I mean, all the level one customer support is going to get replaced by AI. I mean, LLMs plus voice because, you know, OpenAI just released their audio API and You saw that at the All In Summit, we released a Mearsheimer AI where we trained it on all of his work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And you can go to Mearsheimer.ai and ask it questions. And it will tell you the answers in his voice because we cloned his voice using Resemble AI. Anyway, so AI can do voice now. And it can be trained extremely well on large data sets to give you answers to questions, which is pretty much what customer support is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I think it's now becoming clear that I think within the next two to three years, you're going to see a massive disruption in that industry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, I mean, you talk about disruption. Call centers are a very big part of the economy in certain geographies. Denver, Salt Lake, I mean, parts of Florida. Yeah, exactly. It's a really big deal. If like half the cost gets ripped out of those call centers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you had your choice, could they move to sales? Well, I think sales will be the one that's disrupted after customer support. But I don't know. I think it's going to be very disruptive. One of the reasons I think this is, in the early days of LLMs, people were saying that legal services would be disrupted. And you saw some very highly valued startups rocketing up based on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think the problem with that is the error rate. So when you think about AI applications, you have to think about what is the tolerable error rate that the industry will allow? Because we know that AIs get things wrong, they can hallucinate. And you're never going to be able to make it perfect. I mean, you can improve the quality, but it's still going to have some errors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And when you're dealing with like legal services, for example, you just can't have mistakes. This is not tolerated. However, customer support is different. Customer support is already organized into levels. Level one, level two, level three, based on difficulty. And there's already, in a sense, a mechanism for failover.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If like the level one customer support person can't answer the question, they kick it up to level two. So... There's a place for... LLMs to start in customer support, which is replacing all the level one and then working their way up the chain to level two as they get better and better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so what I'm saying is that the level of accuracy now, especially with the new PhD level reasoning models is good enough. We don't need to wait for like some perfect LLM model. And I think this is why this is going to be a big, big disruption. Millions of people potentially are going to have their jobs disrupted or at least transformed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
One of the reasons why I'm bullish on this customer support use case is because there's a very large data set to train on. You've got all of the product documentation that companies have already created. You've got all of the previous email support. And calls. And calls, yeah. The calls have been recorded, so you can now train the AI on that. So there's a very large...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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body of data to train the AI model on. And it's not necessarily the most proprietary. It's not like dealing with people's medical records or even confidential legal documents, something like that. So the data is readily available. And then the foundation models are getting really good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I think there's a big question here about value capture, which is there's a number of startups now that are becoming very highly valued that are chasing this disruption, this sort of customer support agent disruption. And they're getting into very high valuations, even unicorn valuations already.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And the question is, well, wait, if the foundation models are advancing at such a rate, like a year from now, why couldn't a developer, just a startup of a few guys, take next year's model and train it and then commoditize the
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, I saw the Klarna story where they said they were going to rip out Salesforce and Workday because they were able to write their own bespoke code using AI. I mean, I have to say I'm a little bit skeptical of that story for a couple of reasons. One is... If that's their goal, why wouldn't they have open-sourced these products they created?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
You might as well get the whole ecosystem working on it because they're not trying to sell this product that they've internally created. They're just trying to rip out the cost, so why not let the whole ecosystem see it? The other thing is, if it's so easy to do, why hasn't the market already been flooded with new startups that are effectively able to reverse-engineer
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Yeah, look, I think that if you're only using a few use cases of these big, complicated software packages, then yeah, it's probably easier than ever to deprecate them, you know, eliminate them from your stack and just have your own internal engineers build specifically what you need in a more tightly integrated way. I think that is possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Yeah, but the product's garbage. I mean, look how ridiculous this is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Look, this is egregious government waste. I mean, that site looks like it's pathetic. I mean, honestly, this looks like it could have been done with a SharePoint site and you pay some consultant to stand it up for 1% of the cost. And there are more modern platforms than that. So this is just incredibly wasteful and inefficient government spending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
That was Chamath's contribution.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Right, but that 600 million that was wasted on that crappy portal, that shouldn't have happened even without AI, right? Because there's like much better ways. You could buy a much better product for 1% of the cost, or 0.1% of the cost.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
It's waste, fraud, and abuse. It's the same thing that's happening with rural internet. Do you see that story? Paradoxically, it's our next story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, there's a couple of things going on here. So one is typical government waste, fraud, and abuse, where they've allocated 42 billion for rural internet, haven't hooked anyone up, and we could spend a fraction of that giving people Starlink. and allowing the private sector to do its job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
That's the baseline. But it's worse than that. Because on top of the waste, fraud, and abuse, and the fact that the government is grossly incompetent and inefficient, you also have naked political retaliation going on here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Yeah, exactly. And Brendan Carr, who's an FCC commissioner, pointed this out. He said that in 2023, the FCC canceled or revoked an $885 million contract with the company by claiming Starlink is not capable of providing high-speed internet. Then a year later, of course, that was a lie.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And then a year later, the FCC is now claiming that Starlink provides so much high-speed internet that the word monopoly should be tossed out. So, look, this is just pure… It's pure naked retaliation. The Biden-Harris administration doesn't want to admit that Elon has the best solution for rural internet, just like they couldn't admit he made the best electric cars.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Remember when they did that EV summit and they didn't invite him? That was just nakedly political because he's not on their team. Right. So look, I mean, the Biden-Harris administration, look, it's blue no matter who. And Elon has drifted from being sort of independent and not aligned to- He was blue. He was blue. Let's call it what it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
He's no longer team blue. And so they're punishing him for this. Yeah. And it's costing taxpayers a huge amount of money. I think this is one of the worst decisions by the current administration. And if Trump gets in there, he should reverse it on day one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, that's such a good point. I remember back in the day, 60 Minutes used to do these segments on waste, fraud, and abuse at the Pentagon, different parts of the government. $42 billion just spent on something that really taxpayers could have for free or without the government getting involved.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Do you think that you did better as moderator because you finally let go of just the conference organization?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And $42 billion that was lining someone's pocket when the service doesn't even work, that would have been a scandal. And the media would have covered it. But the media doesn't even cover it these days. And again, it's because the media has become so tribal that it's better dead than red and blue no matter who.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And so because the media would have to admit that Elon's already solved this problem, they just can't go there. They won't even cover this. And so we have no accountability. There's no accountability on the government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Yeah, I think that you were able to focus on your unique value add instead of immersing yourself in a bunch of details that could be handled by the team.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But I think it was a process to get you to let go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Remember she was the AI czar? I mean, the administration did put her nominally in charge of various technology initiatives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I mean, government has never been particularly efficient, but there was a period of time where people would at least care about wanting to make it more efficient.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And it would be a scandal if there was political corruption to try and bias the result in a way that actually deprived the intended recipients of the program from getting the services they were supposed to get and cost the government way more money than it needed to. We're so far beyond being that country anymore. Where we actually debate the best policy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Now it's just like we're warring political tribes. And the objective of the party is to punish its political opponents, to engage in retaliation, and to basically loot the public coffers as much as possible on behalf of their constituents. And that's what's basically happening. You know, it's completely dysfunctional.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And no one really cares because the media doesn't really shine a light on it because they're completely tribalized as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
No, no, I meant their donors, their donor constituents, not the citizens of the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
For sure. How do you think these contracts get awarded?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
No, they're so incompetent they can't get it out of their own way. But somebody's getting that, call it 50 billion, that we don't need to spend. And the way that money is awarded is going to be political. You don't think that they're going to turn around and give big political contributions?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, two points. So first, I agree with Chamath that the amount of time it takes to generate an outcome for, I'd say, most startups is longer than the 10-year period of these funds. And these funds can be extended up to 12 years usually, but then what do you do after that? This takes a lot longer than that in a lot of cases to generate a meaningful outcome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, I thought the Mearsheimer Jeffrey Sachs panel was great. I thought it would be, which is why I helped organize it. But I was just glad that the audience, so many people in the audience reacted and said that was the surprise hit of the conference.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I just had two companies that I invested in in my second fund. So in 2019 and 2020, so four years ago and five years ago, just got marked up. And it was a big markup of the company's doing well. I call them late bloomers. It took four to five years for them to accomplish what they wanted to in terms of like building out the tech. I mean, I invested at like the earliest stage.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
So that's how long it took. And now they just did growth rounds and they're kind of off to the races. But I could easily be 10 years from here to get to a liquidity event. So you're talking about more like 15-year funds. So I agree with that point. The second thing, though, is that The big thing that's happened in our industry is we had a bubble in 2020 and especially 2021.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And we just had a ton of capital come into the industry because the Fed and the federal government airdropped $10 trillion of liquidity onto the economy in reaction to COVID. And not all that money went into VC. It went into a lot of places. But the VC industry was flooded with cash. And you see this in the deployments.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I mean, in those bubble years, there was something like $200 billion a year of capital deployment when normally it's $60 to $100 billion. So if twice the amount of money is going into the industry and is being deployed, and rounds are now twice as big, and valuations are twice as big, that has a huge effect on returns. So for example, the average venture fund is like a 2x return.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But if the entry prices were artificially double, then there goes your return right there. You get 2x times 1x. This is such a key point. Look, I think we're just in the hangover of this massive liquidity bubble that didn't originate in the venture capital industry. It came from, frankly, the federal government. But we're just downstream of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Now, what I would say is I do think we're at the tail end of working that out. And the good news is that we now have maybe the most exciting tech wave ever, which is AI. Definitely the most exciting tech wave since the internet. came along in the mid to late 90s. So the hope is we're finally going to have really exciting things to invest in again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But yeah, look, I think we're at the tail end of the last cycle and the beginning of a new cycle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Elon's slightly ahead, but yeah, it's still like growing. It's like finding an audience.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I mean, it's basically the capital deployments gone back to where it was in 2019, let's call it. So again, we had this bubble. The foam started building in 2020, but you had COVID, people didn't know what to think. So there was some restraint, I guess. And then 2021, it just went wild.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Just by the way, I feel better about those late – bloomers in my portfolio because i know the marks are real because if they're getting marked up now then it's very very solid compared to frankly some of those marks that we got in the bubble year like 2021 i call them tiger marks whether it was tiger or not
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
It's just less real, quite frankly, and a lot of those companies are retrenching and have issues. So a mark now, it just means something different than a mark then. But look, just so we're not totally beating up on VC, you remember that in this bubble period of September 2021, everybody thought that this party would just continue forever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And this is a good example from the Wall Street Journal, where it's talking about how university endowments were minting billions in golden era of venture capital. So The bubble wasn't just in VC, it was in the public markets too, because we had ZERP, right? Like interest rates were zero, liquidity was just flowing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And so it was very easy for companies to get liquid, they IPO'd, and then the valuations were stratospheric. So the distributions to LPs were massive in 2021. And then that led to, again, more funds, being able to raise bigger funds. Everyone was just kind of paying it forward and thought the party would just keep going. So-
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
this is what happens in a bubble is everybody thinks that it's just gonna keep going like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, look, ironically, just to end on sort of a positive note, if these interest rate cuts are real, like if we just got 50, if we get another 50 this year, if inflation's really tamed, and interest rates are never going to go to zero, but if they go down substantially... And we have this new AI disruption, this new AI tailwind. We could be back in another golden era.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
It's not going to be a bubble, but it could be another golden era. So we'll see.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I think that Kamala Harris performed better than expected. She did that, I think, mostly through having canned answers to topics. And she was able to kind of memorize those answers and say them. And she was never knocked out of her preparation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I think she was well-prepared. However, we now know that these were canned answers because in subsequent press interviews, she gives the exact same thing. It's like a jukebox where you just push the button and you get the same answer. Exactly. So she's memorized a certain number of talking points, and that's all she's going to give you no matter what the question is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And if you saw that, it's become a meme now where You saw that question when she was asked about inflation. There's a pause when she's figuring out which greatest hit she's going to play. And then, you know, she, I guess, pushes B26 in her head and then it begins. So I was born in the middle class.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I think what you saw is that she got a bounce out of the debate, but now it's sort of like a lot of these... bounces, there's been kind of effervescence to it, and then it kind of settles down back to the recurring pattern. And so I think the election is extremely close, but I don't think... Oh, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, look, I mean, I think that he was in a very difficult situation. You basically had a three-on-one situation where he was up against not just Kamala Harris, but the two debate moderators. It turns out that Lindsay Davis is Kamala's sorority sister. David Muir was fact-checking him constantly, and some of those fact-checks weren't even correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
For example, we now know that the Springfield city manager has acknowledged complaints about pets being eaten. Oh, here we go. I was wondering if we were going to get through the episode. As far back as March, there are videos of him talking about the complaints.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Now you can, you can say that you don't believe those stories or whatever, but those reports were real, but David Muir fact-checked in real time saying that Trump was wrong. And there was like this effort to kind of gaslight and make him sound crazy during the debate when there are in fact sources for what he was saying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, totally. And they only fact-check one candidate. For example, when Kamala Harris repeated numerous hoaxes like the Very Fine People hoax, the Bloodbath hoax, the Suckers and Losers hoax. I mean, these are things that were already addressed in the last debate. And You know, even left-wing sites like Snopes have said the whole verified people thing is totally made up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
It's really egregious. The bloodbath one is really egregious, too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Right, so she was able to say these things and never got fact-checked once, which meant she never got knocked out of her preparation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But here's the thing, is that in the wake of that debate, look, I think a lot of people scoring the debate on technical debater's points would award her the win for that night. Clearly she won, yeah. I don't deny that. However, what I think has been surprising is that in the wake of the debate, you're seeing her support sort of return more to its previous level.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And so what I'm saying is the effect of that's wearing off. And I think one of the reasons why that's wearing off is because Trump still has the killer issues in this election. He's got the border, and he's got inflation and the economy. And Harris may have done well, again, on debaters' points, but what substantive answer did she give in that debate, except to say, I'm not Joe Biden, which...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
is, I guess, true. However, what you're basically saying is you won't defend your own administration's record. You are the incumbent. You're not the change candidate. And you're saying that people should vote for you because you're not Joe Biden. Well, what is it about Joe Biden's record that, what is it about Joe Biden's policies that you don't agree with?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I mean, after all, you cast the tie-breaking vote for the Inflation Reduction Act. You cast it for the $2 trillion American Rescue Plan that set off the inflation. So the debate moderators never asked Harris, well, what is it about you that is different than Joe Biden on a policy level, other than the fact that you're different people?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Let's talk about the Teamsters. So Biden, when he was still in the race, was plus eight among the Teamsters rank and file. And now that Harris is the candidate, Trump is up something like plus 26 with the Teamsters. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
There's something about her policies and I think her – look, I think within the Democratic Party – You think it's her personality. I think it's partly personality, but I also think it's policies and cultural issues. So within the Democratic Party, there's always been two tracks. There's the beer track and there's the wine track. And so, you know, Bill Clinton was classic beer track guy, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Beer summit with Obama. Yeah. Right. And I think Joe Biden was was beer track. Then there's kind of the wine track, which is the more it's the part of the party that cares about these boutique cultural issues, starting with DEI and equity and trans and things like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Basically, the entire California Democratic Party is very wine track. I mean, Gavin is very wine track. Kamala Harris is very wine track. You can understand why a blue collar worker, it doesn't appeal to that. They want more of that lunch pail traditional Democrat. But that Democratic Party doesn't really exist anymore. I mean, the Democratic Party is
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
has evolved to be the party of the professional class, whereas the Republicans are more the party of the working class. And you're now starting to see it. I think Biden was the Democrats' last vestige of this working class party. He really worked at being appealing to those voters, you know, the whole Scranton Joe image. Yeah, Union Joe. Yeah, exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Whereas Kamala, when you get her talking in an unguarded moment, and it's not a canned answer, she's going to talk about diversity, equity, and inclusion. And that's not what your typical teamster wants to hear.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, look, I mean, the great asset that Kamala Harris has is not her likability. It's not her track record. It's not her policies. It's the fact that she's got the media behind her. And if you look at, like, for example, ABC News, 100% of the coverage by ABC News is positive, whereas something like 93% of their coverage on Trump is negative.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And you saw this, that before Harris replaced Biden as the nominee, she had very low favorability ratings. And then the media basically reinvented her as this transformative candidate. So look, when you've got the media willing to operate as de facto members of your campaign, that's tremendously powerful. If we had a fair media, this election wouldn't be close.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
So that is the advantage the Democrats have. Now look, should Trump have... done the debate with ABC News? No, I think he should have chosen more fair moderators. I mean, to their credit, I think CNN played the Biden-Trump debate pretty fair and down the middle. But ABC, I mean, it was predictable that, like I said, I mean, one of the hosts was her sorority sister, they're friends.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
So, you know, I think that if Trump loses, you could say that his willingness to walk into the lion's den, take on all comers, do every interview, you could say maybe that wasn't as strategic as what she did. But at the end of the day, I think that voters will appreciate that both Trump and J.D. are willing to do basically every podcast, every interview. They're not afraid to answer questions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And when they do answer questions, you can see them thinking and they don't give you the same canned answer they've given 10 times before. including at the debate. So, yeah, I mean, that's my take. What's yours, J. Cal?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
What do you think, if she ends up winning, what do you think the reason will be?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Yeah, look, I mean, maybe we're asking the wrong question here, which is why would he lose? I mean, I think maybe the real question is why is he favored to win? Because I think the polls, including Nate Stilver, still show him favored to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And I think that when you look at what the big issues are in this campaign and what has people agitated and upset, why they think the country is on the wrong track, something like 65%, it has to do with the economy, it has to do with inflation, it has to do with the border. I think that on the cultural issues, the trans stuff drives parents crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
They don't want the government telling them what to do with their kids. So it's hard to think of a killer issue other than maybe abortion that Harris has on her side. It feels like all the issues cut Trump's way. But again, the thing that Trump doesn't have and there's no way to for him to fix this is the media is just so in the tank for Harris. Now, you raise a good point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Look, could Trump be more disciplined? Yeah, absolutely. However, you know, I think that what amplifies that is the fact that the media is quick to jump on every little thing he says and distorts it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I agree with you that Trump could be more disciplined. However, I don't think it's as bad as what you're saying, because if it were, there'd be no need to make up these obvious hoaxes. There'd be no need to, you know, lie about the very fine people or what he said about bloodbath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
So if he was really saying that many outrageous things, why would you need to keep inventing things that he didn't say?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Yeah, they're throwing everything at him. But look at Kamala's interviews. I mean, she hasn't given very many. But, I mean, her answers are just – I mean, just watch them. I'm not going to characterize them, but just watch her actual interviews.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, let's look at the rhetoric that Ryan Ruth was literally quoting on his Twitter, was saying that Trump is basically an existential threat to democracy. He was quoting what Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and the mainstream media have been saying chapter and verse. So I think that if you want to ascribe motivation there. Where did Ruth get these ideas?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
They've been endlessly amplified by the mainstream media. And it's not like a one-off comment. It's been the central narrative for the last several years is that somehow Trump represents this existential threat to democracy. And one way or another, that threat must be eliminated. And I think Ryan Ruth simply took literally what the mainstream media has been saying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, when you call the guy Hitler for years, and again, you create millions or billions of impressions around that. And it's not like a one-off statement, but it's something that's drummed into the public over and over again. It seems to me you're asking for trouble.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, I think a lot of people are commenting on the fact that the only other two times where we've had a 50 basis point rate cut in modern history, it has been just before a recession. So I think this happened in 2001, 2007, right before the recession. And the Fed had to do a dramatic rate cut because they could see in the data that things were weakening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
So a lot of people are asking the question, well, is that what's going on here? Now, Powell's comments, though, are indicating that the economy is in good shape. He said the economy is in very good shape, basically indicating that they had tamed inflation and that they would look to cut another 50 basis points this year. So Powell's rhetoric is... in a way, at odds with the magnitude of this cut.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
So why didn't they just cut 25 basis points? I think people are trying to figure that out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Yeah, if the economy is hot, why wouldn't you tiptoe into rate cuts and just do 25 now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm not worried about the hollowing out of that class.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, I mean, in tech, things are pretty good. I mean, they're not as absurdly frothy as they were during the bubble of 2020 and 2021, but things are good. You have this huge AI tailwind now, and there's just a ton of investment going into AI. There's a little bit of a tale of two cities going on. If you're in AI, things are really bubbly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And if you're outside AI, they've returned to much more normal levels in terms of valuation and company operations, all that kind of stuff. Just to go back to the state of the economy for a second, the reason why a lot of people were predicting a recession, including me for a while, is that the yield curve inverting has been an almost perfect gauge of whether a recession is coming.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
It's when basically the Fed raises short-term interest rates above long-term interest rates. Normally, long rates are the ones that should be higher because investors demand a higher rate of return to tie up their money for longer. So something's really
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
That's pretty clear. I'd like to address that too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Just days before the shooting, Peter Thiel and Reid Hoffman had an exchange at Allen & Company that was publicly reported in which Peter said that Reid had turned Trump into a martyr by funding lawfare. And Reid responded, I wish I had turned him into an actual martyr. That's wishing for someone's death.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
When the news of the assassination attempt came online, I don't think it was Jack Black himself, but a member of his band said, that's too bad, the shot missed. There are other people on the Democrat side who expressed similar sentiments. They were disappointed that the assassination attempt had failed. Now, I don't think those people are mainstream political leaders.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm not going to try and hang that around Joe Biden. However, Biden himself, days before the shooting, said that it was time to put Trump in the bullseye. That's what he said. And his defense for that rhetoric was, well, I didn't say crosshairs. Well, I think bullseye means the same thing. Now, even that, I'm willing to basically... forgive because I don't think Biden meant it in a literal sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I think he was speaking rhetorically about, say, campaign ads, things like that. I wouldn't necessarily say that was violent rhetoric, okay? I'm not going to try and pin that on President Biden. But the thing I do think was unacceptable by President Biden and the Democrats is the level of demonization and the level of vitriol that they have pursued against President Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
not as a one-off statement, but as a campaign strategy. Again, they have said over and over again, this man is Hitler, this man is a fascist, this man is a threat to democracy. If he wins, it is the end of democracy. They have repeatedly gone there and repeatedly used, they've tried to Hitlerize him. Now, if you're saying that this man is Hitler, where else is there to go rhetorically?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
That's the worst thing you could ever say about somebody. And quite frankly, If he is Hitler, why would you be offering him thoughts and prayers after he gets shot? I mean, wouldn't it be a good thing to shoot Hitler?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And so I do think that if we think about the contribution of political rhetoric to what could have happened here, I'm not going to try and blame anybody for these one-off poor choices of language that could be interpreted as violent. What I will blame them for is taking the demonization up to 11, taking the vitriol up to 11, because that could...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
poison the mind of someone who's already mentally disturbed and say, okay, well, wait a second. If he is Hitler, why wouldn't I be Colonel Van Stauffenberg for assassinating him? Wouldn't I be a hero for trying to eliminate this man? And that's the thing that I think is really unacceptable. And I do think the Democrats should be blamed for that because, again, they made it a campaign strategy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Their entire argument against Donald Trump is not about issues. It's about this man being Hitler. And I think it's ridiculous. It's inflated. It's hyperbole, to be sure. And I think that we don't know yet about the mind of this shooter, this crooks. But if anything contributed to the shooting, it was that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
That happened over eight years ago as like part of a text message exchange. It wasn't a public rhetoric as a campaign strategy. I'm talking about a systematic strategy that gets amplified. Look at the cover of the New Republic. They literally turned Donald Trump's face into the face of mashup of him and Adolf Hitler.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And it's been amplified and repeated over and over and over again on MSNBC, on CNN, on all these liberal channels, okay? This is coordinated political rhetoric as a campaign strategy. It's not a one-off. I'm not going to blame anybody for a one-off that could be misinterpreted. But when you do this as a systematic, campaign strategy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And in fact, you base your entire campaign around the idea this man is a threat to democracy and a fascist. This is the language they used. Like I said, there's nowhere else to go after that. Where else do you go?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Or have you seen the DEI another day memes? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I mean, look, it's a very unfortunate video.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
She may have just had a bad moment. Who knows? I mean, it did look pretty bad that she was having trouble holstering her weapon. I mean, you know, not that I'm a gun expert.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
But I mean, look, it's what's known as an outside the waistband holster, which is the easiest type of holster to use because you don't have to tuck it into your pants or anything like that. And I got to say, it does look pretty bad that she was having so much trouble just trying to holster her weapon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
But look, I think this is only one of a number of questions that I think have been legitimately raised about the Secret Service performance. And we need... a full investigation to figure out what happened. And let me just run off a list of questions that I would like to see answered. So number one is how did they fail to cover that roof?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
It was the most obvious shooting spot in that entire Butler Farm area, and it was not properly covered. And then the Secret Service releases this statement that they didn't cover it because it was a sloped roof. which is the most ridiculous cover story ever because they did have snipers on another roof that was more sloped.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
So once you put out that cover story, which is basically a lie, you only make the situation worse and it only makes the question even more poignant of how do you feel to cover that roof? Okay, that's number one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And the secret service director, Cheadle, said that on ABC. Okay. So right there, she should be fired because she's lying to us at a moment where she should be cooperating and doing a full investigation. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Okay, but that's just question number one, okay? Question number two is, like you said, he was a person of interest an hour before the shooting and no one went to go resolve that situation. Moreover, they see him with a range finder, okay? What the hell do you use a range finder for?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I mean, he's scoping out the target with a range finder and they let the president go out there, okay, while they still have a person of interest out there. This guy has a range finder, he has a ladder, he has a backpack. And he was never intercepted. He was never stopped, even though they had identified him. And they let the president go out there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
So clearly there was a huge failure of communication between the Secret Service and the Trump campaign. How did that happen? How was there no agent stationed at the fence such that they had to ram it with an SUV for the Secret Service to get through? I don't know if you guys knew about that part of it. OK.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
There was no agent stationed at the fence. So in order to get there, they rammed the fence with an SUV so the Secret Service could quickly get through. Oh my gosh. That's insane.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
That sniper must have identified crooks as a potential target and had him lined up, which is how he's able to take him out very quickly. But what was the chain of command there in terms of him seeking authorization? Hey, who is this person? Why wasn't everything stopped while they go to figure out what this person is doing on the roof there? Okay. And then once...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Once the shots rang out and Trump gets shot, why did it take him so long to get him in the car, to get the convoy off to a hospital? There was a long delay in terms of getting him out of there. So they clearly weren't prepared for that. The whole thing, it just reeks of incompetence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
But they don't have the right in a democracy to basically investigate themselves and say, oh, we're good. No, that's not how it works. The people of this country need accountability. The once and likely future president came within millimeters, centimeters of being assassinated. And this whole country could have been plunged into a whole different type of situation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
We need answers to these questions. And this Director Cheadle is obviously in the way. and putting out nonsense, putting out spin at a time when we need a proper investigation. That needs to happen immediately. Cheadle should resign. We need to have agents, okay? Secret Service agents need to be offered up to testify on Capitol Hill with no fear of reprisal from the Biden administration, okay?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Did you guys see there was coverage yesterday that showed there's actually two snipers?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Yeah. Well, no, sorry. There's two sets of snipers. There's four snipers. The one set of snipers that you see the video of where he does that, there's a tree blocking their ability to see crooks. The other set of snipers are the ones that apparently took the fatal shot and they had a line of sight, but they're not on camera. So you don't actually see what's going on with them. That's the current...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
reporting I've seen on it. So I don't want to like jump to conclusions given that there's now seeming to be- There's no excuse here because let me just say- If they saw the guy on the roof and they let the president on the stage, someone effed up. That doesn't seem appropriate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
If we can put that bird's eye view of Butler Farm on the screen, I don't know, Nick, if you have that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Nick, pull it up where it shows the line of sight with the tree as well so you can see it all. Yeah, there it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
But look at the shooter's position and look at Trump's position, okay? Yeah. And I've seen broader bird's eye views of Butler Farm. Without knowing anything about marksmanship, it's just obvious that that roof is the most – if you could set yourself up anywhere as a sniper to assassinate the president, it's the number one most obvious location.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Furthermore, let me just say that when Chamath and I hosted that dinner for President Trump – We worked with the Secret Service, you know, advance team and they were excellent. They were really great. And I saw just a little bit of their process and they went through the house. They mapped out the entire house, the entire property.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Then they asked, well, where's the president gonna be sitting at dinner? They wanted to know who's to his right, who's to his left. They looked at the window coverage of that room and they said, okay, whose house is that? That neighbor's house. And they went to go check it out. Every single movement by the president was mapped out Every angle on the president was basically mapped out and explored.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
What happened here then? That's the crazy part. It was actually amazing to watch. I thought they did a great job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And so this is why, how could this ever have happened where the most obvious shooting angle on the president was not properly covered? It just makes no sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Yeah. Normally, they're very thorough, and they're very serious. I mean, look, even at the dinner that we hosted, they wanted to know what kind of steak knives we were using. Yeah. Like, literally, they wanted to make sure that that was safe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And this is why they were so interested in knowing who was to the president's right and to his left, because they want to think through every possible angle of attack on the president. There was some breakdown here. And in this case, something very strange happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Yeah, but he wasn't dressed that way. He wasn't wearing a costume or he wasn't impersonating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Absolutely. It's just like the Afghanistan withdrawal. Remember that? No heads rolled. There was no proper investigation of why so many people died unnecessarily in that Afghanistan withdrawal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Well, exactly. And I tweeted this counterfactual, which is imagine if Elon had bought Twitter, but he wasn't allowed to fire anybody. Do you think he would have been able to restore free speech? Do you think he'd be able to restore innovation? No. If you're running an institution, you have to be able to fire people when they don't perform. But we have lost that ability of our federal government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
So there's something that's very, very broken here. When people fail, they have to be held accountable or you don't get good performance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Right. When institutions fail, there needs to be a question on why are we funding those institutions? Nobody gets fired. Why would you give more money to a failing company? You'd never do it. This is the comment I put in the letter that I sent to that senior Democrat back in October. I don't see any accountability with respect to the programs that you pass bills to fund.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
You pass bills to fund these programs, you stand up new institutions, and then there is never a retrospective postmortem or review on the performance of those institutions or the objective of those programs. And yet we keep funding them and asking for more money. And eventually you end up with a decaying empire like we've seen in history.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
We need to have a series of actions that drive accountability in federal programs and then a review on the intention of those programs and make sure that they still hold. And then we can move forward with new programs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Did you see all those senators chasing him up the stairs yesterday? You see that? I did see that. It didn't say which senators it was.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Or should Blackburn. What happened? So a bunch of the senators confronted the head of the Secret Service. Cheadle is her name, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And they confronted her. And there's someone videoed the whole thing on their iPhone of them saying, we need answers. Why did you let this happen? Here's a video. Nick can show it. Here, just watch it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
That's a bad video because what it does not show is the start and the end. At the start, they were all standing around her having a conversation. And then they started to press her. And she said, now's not the time. This isn't the forum. Then she took off. They followed her. And then she went into the Secret Service secure room upstairs and blocked all the senators from coming into the room.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Her Secret Service staff blocked them. So all the guards said, no, you can't come in. So they all got blocked out. So the senators were pushing her for some feedback, for conversation, for dialogue, and she wouldn't engage. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Oh my gosh. I've seen enough. Resign now. Get out of the way so a proper investigation can be done. Total, total, total. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Give us the behind the scenes. Yeah. And what was it like getting prepped and doing all the kind of prep work? Do you have to review your speech? Tell us all the details.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Yeah. Well, let's see. I mean, I started working on this about, I don't know, a week before the convention. And they sent me some ideas for remarks. And then I completely rewrote it with my research assistant slash writer, and then sent it to them. And there was some back and forth. But by and large, they let me do what I wanted to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
The one thing that was kind of set was the time and they correlated the time with a number of words. So they said you've got six minutes, which is 600 words. And so that's what we work towards. And then the big thing I had to learn was just how to use the teleprompter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
So they had these rooms set up where there were teleprompters and I could do some training on how to read a speech using a teleprompter. What is that like? It's just a matter of knowing where to look and trying to stay natural, but also using the prompter as a mnemonic device. And does the prompter stop when you stop or how does that work?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
There is actually somebody in the room who is physically advancing the words as you're speaking. And so there's someone who's actually working the prompter and they will go out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Exactly, exactly. So that was probably the biggest thing to learn. And then the other thing about it is that you're speaking to a huge convention hall. And so you feel like you really want to project in order to kind of reach people. But at the same time, you're really speaking on TV. As you guys know, you'll come across as being kind of insane if you start like yelling into a TV set.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So finding the right balance between speaking to people in the auditorium and speaking to people watching from home That's kind of tricky. And I'm reasonably happy with it. And the most important thing is I got to say the substance of what I said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Not universally popular, right? I mean, you basically called for an end to the conflict in Ukraine and to stop funding Ukraine's defense against Russia. And that's not a popular opinion in the Republican Party. Is that right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Well, I went further than that. I said that this was not an unprovoked war. It was a provoked war. I said the Biden administration provoked the war with talk of NATO expansion. You can disagree with that if you want. I think there's plenty of evidence for it. That's what I believe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I feel like you went out on a limb more than most other speakers who kind of had a lot of good laudatory comments and, you know, promoted Trump. Yeah, you could have pandered. Yeah, you actually went out with a strongly held opinion that is, you know, fairly contrarian, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I think that most of the people in the Republican Party, including most people on the floor, actually agreed with me. I think it took them a second to process what I had said. And so, you know, what I saw when I was up there is I said that, you know, Biden provoked, yes, provoked the war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think it was such a shocking statement to a lot of people because we've heard the whole unprovoked invasion narrative so many times that there were like murmurs and then people got it and they started applauding. I never actually intended it to even be an applause line. I just thought it was an important thing to state the truth as I see it on the record at the Republican convention.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And that line did actually get applause. Now, a bunch of Ukraine stans were predictably outraged by what I said, and they were trying to claim online that somehow I'd been booed or something like that. There were absolutely no boos. There were actually people applauding. And then as I got deeper and deeper into the speech, people applauded it more and more.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It was very much a speech that attacked the forever wars. It attacked the warmongers and complimented President Trump for keeping us out of wars. And complimented him for being strong, but also having the savviness and the ability to negotiate with our adversaries to keep us out of wars. And I think that's now a position that's very popular within the Republican Party, but it's a process.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's evolving.
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I mean, I'm friends with him and I very much supported his selection for VP.
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Well, there's a couple of things. So J.D. Vance represents a couple of very interesting characteristics. On the one hand, he's from this poor region of Appalachia. that really represents the forgotten man or the forgotten cities and towns in America. You could call it the MAGA heartland. And so MAGA really likes him. At the same time, he's worked in tech. He was a venture capitalist.
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He understands the future and he's popular in tech. So it's very unusual to get somebody who has MAGA plus tech on their side together. So that's one almost contradiction you could say that JD represents. Here's another one. J.D. Vance was in high school when the Twin Towers came down.
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And then we invaded Iraq, and he was gung-ho to serve and to go exact retribution and justice on America's enemies. And he enlisted in the Marine Corps, and he went off to serve in the Iraq War. Subsequently, he realized that we had all been lied to about the Iraq War and that it was a gigantic mistake. And moreover, the forever wars were a huge mistake.
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And to me, this is something that I really appreciate about him. And this is a quality that I really want at President Trump's side, which is he's an American patriot. He had the courage to serve, to go serve in America's wars. But he has the wisdom and the judgment to want to avoid those wars when we don't need to fight them.
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And there's way too many of, like you said, Jason, these neocons, these warmongers in the party who've never, ever acknowledged their mistake in the Iraq war and all the forever wars. And they seem on virtually a daily basis to want to plunge us into the next forever war.
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So this is, I think, a quality that's of paramount importance to have in our commander in chief and in the person who would be next in line to be commander in chief. All right. For these reasons, I very much support J.D.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. I thought he was an incredible pick before his speech last night, and he even exceeded my expectations in that speech. I just thought it was truly an incredible speech. First of all, the introduction by his wife, Usha, was really... incredible. I thought she did a fantastic job. And then he got up there and I had a friend text me who's not really that into politics.
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He's just like, this guy seems so normal. He's happy. He's normal. He seems competent. There was one commentator, I think on one of the cable shows who I think meant this as an insult, but it actually was positive. He said that when you're at a fast food restaurant or something and need to ask for the manager, J.D. Vance is the person you hope is the manager. He comes out. He's friendly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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He's competent. He's reasonable. He knows how to get stuff done. I'm not sure if that was meant as an insult or a compliment. It's meant as an insult. Yeah, I can tell you that's meant as an insult. Yeah, but I think it's a compliment, right? And he's just so normal. He's going to be very hard to demonize. Obviously, they're trying to do it on cable news. They're somehow trying to portray him as
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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an extremist or a racist, even though he has a mixed race family.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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She was excellent. She was excellent. She was fantastic. I thought she was excellent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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She's a feminist.
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I thought her speech was effective. I thought it was authentic. And it described her red-pilling, basically. It described her evolution and her journey from someone who believed the media's lies about Trump, thinking that he was a racist, to actually meeting the man herself, realizing that the way they had portrayed him was basically a slander, and how she became friends with President Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I thought it was an incredibly effective speech. But look... There was very few people who didn't like it. There was this one post by Matt Walsh online, and he was roundly denounced for what he said. I mean, he kind of engaged in this pearl clutching that they had allowed Amber Rose to speak because of her background.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And it's like, who's Matt Walsh to judge? It felt like a part of the Republican Party that's on its way out. You know, this pearl clutching social conservatism. In any event, it was really an opportunity, I think, for people to disavow his criticism and support her.
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Everything has proceeded as I have foreseen. We'll let your winners ride.
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Absolutely. Youth and vigor. And again, this new direction. A lot of people were commenting about J.D. 's speech that large parts of it could have been given by Bernie Sanders. It's this populist message that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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and being pro-union how do you reconcile all that and and this new republican party yeah address those two because that seems to be a big discussion two discussion topics yeah i think that it's definitely a new emergent republican party where this is i think this is donald trump's republican party this is the maga wing the america first wing of the republican party we're moving from a party of basically the chamber of commerce you know business round table
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a bunch of oligarchic fat cats to being a populist party that actually represents the people. And I think it's a very- And unions. And they had the Teamsters up there, yeah. And I think it's a very welcome change. And the part of JD's speech that I like the best is when he described
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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that, hey, I went off and many other people went off to fight in these forever wars, risking our lives or giving our lives. We come back to our home communities, and what do we find? We find them hollowed out. The jobs have all been exported. The factories have shut down. And instead, the town has been poisoned by fentanyl.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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That is a message that you have not heard in the Republican Party, except for Donald Trump and that new part of the party. And I think that Donald Trump choosing J.D. Vance was so important to cement this new vision of the Republican Party. It was a legacy pick because it means that this America First MAGA message is going to continue into the future, many years into the future.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And let me just tell you, as I listened to that speech, I hearkened back to another speech at a public convention I heard 32 years ago. I'm sorry to say I'm old enough to actually remember these things. And I remember Pat Buchanan's speech in 1992. And After Pat described the factory workers who lost their jobs, I just want to read you what he said, and I want you to think about what J.D. said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So what Buchanan said was, my friends, these people are our people. They don't read Adam Smith or Edmund Burke, but they come from the same schoolyards and the same playgrounds and towns as we come from. They share our beliefs and convictions, our hopes and dreams. They are the conservatives of the heart. They are our people, and we need to reconnect with them.
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We need to let them know we know how bad they're hurting. They don't expect miracles of us, but they need to know we care. And I think that for too long, Republican leaders ignored that advice. They didn't connect with everyday Americans. They were foolishly willing to cut programs like Social Security or Medicare, saying that we had to cut the deficit while at the same time funding forever wars.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So totally not credible. And the party was basically led by warmongers like Dick Cheney or Mitch McConnell or soulless bean counters like Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. And I think Vance really broke with all of that. And I think he represents the future of the party. He trashed the Iraq war. He promised no more foreign interventions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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He railed against policies that benefit multinational corporations at the expense of workers. And I think it's no wonder that the neocons lobbied so hard against his selection. But I think those days are over. And I think that, just let me just say at this end with this, that I think that Donald Trump and J.D. Vance represent a conservatism of the heart. that we haven't seen before.
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And I think this is the future of the Republican Party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Vance, take it. I think he's going to do well for Trump. I think if he... Who are his other options? Nikki Haley...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Not my favorite. I met him. Seemed like a really thoughtful guy. He's done an incredible job managing the state of North Dakota, but he's got some... social policy issues that I think are going to rub people the wrong way. And I think to Sax's point, he's more in the camp of supporting Ukraine, which it seems like some part of the party are starting to come around and say no.
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So it seems like he wasn't a great fit ultimately.
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Yeah. By the way, I met Doug Burgum the other night and he's a very nice man who I think could play a very important role. Very nice guy who I think can play a major, major role in the party.
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Incredible business. Sold it to Microsoft.
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Yeah, there's nobody who understands, I think, energy better and all the regulations that have gotten in the way of making America energy independent and tapping our vast energy reserves. So I found him very, very impressive on that. But at the end of the day, you know, it's just not the kind of pick that J.D. is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm very happy that RFK Jr. was not selected as the VP to be on the ticket. I think RFK would have been a challenging partner for Trump and it would have led to a lot of disagreements. And I think that RFK has some policy perspectives that I don't agree with, particularly as it relates to health, energy, agriculture. And so there are some disagreements I have with respect to his view of the world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I will say JD seems like a pragmatist. He seems highly intelligent. He seems highly competent. And I know that he has not been in a governing position before, right? So this is really critical to note. This is a training job for him in a large way. He's been a senator and he's been an investor and he's been an individual contributor as an investor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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He's built his own firm, but it's not a scaled firm. So this is going to be a really interesting kind of process to watch unfold.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But I think from a policy and a strategy perspective, he can have a really positive impact on the direction of the things that we talked about earlier, which is accountability and government programs, having a clear set of objectives, making sure that we focus on those objectives and don't spend time and resources on things that are fluff and perhaps aren't really meeting the objectives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think that he'll have, the thing I do have concern about, I think that the nationalist agenda, the nationalism and the isolationism agenda is counter to global trade, which can be deeply inflationary. And that is one concern I do have, which is the ability for the US to export and import
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with other trade partners around the world, I think it's critical for us to continue to grow our economy and keep inflation down. So if we take policy action that limits our ability to import because we impose tariffs on other countries' goods and services, it can be inflationary, makes things more expensive for Americans, everyday Americans to buy.
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When everyday Americans go into Walmart and they buy products, a lot of those products are shipped from China. So if there's a tariff on those products and the price of those products now goes up by 30, 40%, that can be a real burden. That drives inflation. That's the point about the nationalism on manufacturing and inputs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, no. I think that the idea, the general statement, which I don't think is necessarily how this is being executed. I just want to make sure that we're all cognizant of the point that if you introduce tariffs on imports, it will drive prices up. Now, that may be the right thing to do from a policy perspective.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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As we heard from President Trump when we interviewed him, his belief is that this is an important security stake, that we use it to drive reciprocity and we use it to hold China in check. And so that may be a more important strategic priority over the increase in the price of certain goods.
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The problem that will arise, and this happened during the last Trump administration, if China then responds with tariffs on the export of US agricultural products, so our biggest buyer of agricultural products today is China, and then China put tariffs on our export or they stopped buying, from the US and they started buying from Brazil instead. The farmers are hurt.
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And when the farmers are hurt, the Trump administration had to spend money to support farmers, tens of billions of dollars.
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They subsidized, they paid farmers in a way. And so the federal government then has to step in to meet the gap that arises from what will end up becoming an escalating tariff problem or an escalating purchasing problem. So global trade allows the economy to grow, gives everyone a market, you can start to trade, but there's also these security issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I do think it's important that we onshore a lot of manufacturing. I think it's important But there's going to be a period of pain. There's going to be an investment needed. And it's not going to be simple and easy. And we may face quite a bit of inflation on the path to doing that.
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So this week we are opening up scholarship applications. You can go to summit.allinpodcast.co. And we have a very, very, very limited number of scholarship tickets that we hold for the summit like we did the last two years. The applications are open now. Please get your application in right away because we expect it will be completely overbooked almost immediately.
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And some of those scholarships are going to be sponsored by Athletic Brewing Company. So thank you to Athletic Brewing Company for paying for a lot of our scholarship recipients to go to the All In Summit this year. Really exciting programming coming together. We have more details to share in the next couple of weeks. And we do have one more last block of GA tickets that we're going to release.
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Get your application in on the website, summit.allinpodcast.co for a GA ticket for the last block. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, first of all, there's a kid rock concert going on behind me. Sorry if that's distracting for you. No, no. It's going to be lit. That's all I can say. If he's introducing President Trump, it's going to be pretty baller tonight. We're taping on Thursday, obviously. This episode will probably come out tomorrow. But
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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In any event, with respect to the Sequoia thing, look, I think there's this overarching issue of the fact that VC funds are classically designed to be 10-year funds. The money is called over time, usually over the first few years. It's invested. And then you don't get liquidity. I mean, it's not like a mutual fund where you can take your money out.
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I was with a group of people drinking beer outside. We were on our fourth beer. And I thought it was a joke. I think the first thing I thought after I saw the video and saw that he was okay and that his ear was bleeding was, that's it, it's over. Trump's won. It was probably one of the most iconic, patriotic visuals I think any of us have seen. And here's the image Nick's pulling up. What a photo.
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You get liquidity if and when the fund gets liquidity. And these funds are meant to be long-term illiquid vehicles. So like I said, 10 years. And typically, you can get two one-year extensions to the funds. So then the question is, what do you do at year 12 if you still got positions in those funds?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I think a pretty good solution is what I think Sequoia is doing here and what I've heard other people do, which is if you have a security that's not public yet but is semi-liquid because it's a very late-stage private company, then what you can do is spin those shares into an SPV or to some other vehicle. And you let new investors come in and buy those shares at some price.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then you give the option to your old investors. Do you want to sell or do you want to roll into the new vehicle? So nobody is forced to give up their ownership position. But if they want to get liquidity and there's sufficient demand on the buy side, that you can get them that liquidity, it's a really elegant solution.
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I can't say I know exactly all the details of what Sequoia is doing because they've got this two-tier fund structure that makes it a little different. But I have seen in other cases, people have distributed shares into an SPV, and then new buyers come in, participate, and then the old investors get to decide whether they roll or sell. So it's a... pretty good way of handling this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So that's the one thing about Sequoia that's a little different is remember, it's their kind of like global mega fund that's buying the shares as opposed to an SPV. Normally what would happen in terms of figuring out the price is you'd want to use some sort of validated secondary price, but obviously it'd have to be a market clearing price where new money wants to come in at that price.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And this is a little bit different because it's their preexisting fund that's buying at that price. And so how do you sanity check the valuation? And I guess- I would just want to make sure that that valuation is the secondary. Yeah, it's like the secondary clearing price.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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This is the AP photographer. And I think it's really, it was so striking. You see this photo, which... which didn't come out right away. But some of the imagery that came out right away with him pumping his fist was like, OK, that's it. Trump's won. It's over. Second thing I thought was this could trigger a lot of violent counter reactions if Trump doesn't lead well here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, something that's very interesting is that J.D. Vance has been relatively positive towards Lena Kahn. He's one of Lena Kahn's few Republican fans. And the reason for that is because Lena Kahn, for all of her faults, and we've described them here, has been willing to take on big tech.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The fact of the matter is that the top handful of tech companies, the Microsofts, the Googles, Amazon, these are big tech monopolies. There's just no way around that fact. And they do need to be closely watched and supervised and regulated with respect to their market power. And I do think they use their market power in inappropriate ways, as we've discussed on this podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I sometimes think that Lena Kahn, in her approach, has been a little bit more of a cleaver when she needed to use a scalpel. I don't think that she should stop some of these what I would call R&D acquisitions from taking place where there's no accretion of market share, but rather starts being bought because they contribute a useful piece of technology.
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I don't think you want to shut down that part of the market. Lord knows we don't have enough exits as it is, like we were just talking about. So I think it would be great if we kind of massage Lena Kahn's approach a little bit, but I think that it is a good thing that she's not willing to just roll over and let the big tech companies do whatever they want.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think JD Vance appreciates that about her. So look, I don't think that Lena Kahn's going to be running that agency in a second Trump administration.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I think it's a huge issue because the fact of the matter is you've got these tech monopolies who are using their monopolistic market power to put their thumb on the scale of our political discourse in favor of one side versus the other. So obviously, if you're on that side of the aisle, you're going to be up in arms about that. You're not going to be happy about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I do think that given their market power, they have an obligation not to distort our democracy by artificially suppressing one side of the debate. So I think that, yes, Republicans should be up in arms about that and they should be resisting censorship. And J.D. Vance specifically mentioned censorship in his speech.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I really like the part of his speech where he said that in a healthy democracy, we debate ideas, and that's good. We even have debates in the Republican Party, and that's good. The last thing we want to do is censor the marketplace of ideas. Gosh, I mean, are we going to hear anything like that from the Democrats when they do their convention?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think he prevented that in his statements and from the other side. Third thing I thought is it doesn't matter if Biden drops out now because it's over. Biden could stay in. He could leave. This just feels like a lot of momentum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, Jake, at this point, I think you were right about Biden stepping aside. I thought he was out of the woods. He did that press conference, that NATO press conference, where he did make that one mistake, that senior moment where he actually- That Trump was his VP? Yeah. Oops. But that was the kind of thing where he got his name mixed up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But otherwise, he sort of seems to be finding his footing in terms of talking about policy. And the brush fire- was sort of put out, right? But then, for some unknown reason, he goes on and does that Lester Holt interview. I don't know why they were still letting him do interviews. He should only be reading from a teleprompter.
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And he mixes up, he forgets the name of his Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, and he just refers to him as the black man. The B-H-A-M.
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you're righteous and when the big money is gone and they make the call you know yeah it's done it's done isn't that amazing what we've learned about the democratic party you know like the the coup de grace was basically katzenberg going in there say yeah i can't raise any money for you and then boom he's out i am shocked that any political party would be swayed in any way by political donations enjoy the uh enjoy the rnc sacks
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then the fourth thing I thought was this, to Chamath's point, I think we've all been around Secret Service people in our lives and in our careers and in meetings and interactions we've had. It really was amazing that the Secret Service let this happen. And if you see...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
You know, all the data and the stuff that's coming out now about how the Secret Service managed this, it seems pretty scary that this was so botched. Certainly now the dust has settled five days later, and it seems like they're back into the conversation about let's remove Biden and figure out who can run against Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Although there is conflicting polling data, which I know we're going to get to.
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Yeah, well, let me answer your first question first. I think this was one of those events where you'll always remember where you were. And I was just working in my office in Los Angeles. I was going to fly to the Republican Convention in Milwaukee a few hours later. And so someone texted me, the president's been shot, Trump had been shot. And my heart sank.
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I immediately went online to see the video. And I think I saw in almost real time him go down. And then when he stood back up and faced the crowd and told the Secret Service, wait, wait, He didn't want to just let them kind of drag him away. He turned to face the crowd and exposed his face. Who knows if there'd been another shooter? Who knows if that shooter was really down?
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But in that moment, he wanted to let the crowd know that he was fine.
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Yeah, absolutely. No, I mean, I'm mocking, I'm satirizing the New York Times and Business Insider and all these publications that are giving me all this credit. Listen, the president obviously makes the decision. He solicits feedback from lots of people. I was probably one of a thousand people, or at least hundreds of people who offer my opinion. Obviously, I'm a big fan of J.D.
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You know, one other very important detail for me is that, you know, my father-in-law was actually at that rally in Butler, at Butler Farm.
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Yeah, he was there and he saw everything that happened. And when we saw there was a shooting there, we were trying to get a hold of him and the cell reception had been shut down and we couldn't get a hold of him for a couple hours. And obviously we found out later that he was fine.
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But what he described is that when the shots rang out, the president went down, there was really a feeling of bedlam and pandemonium in the crowd. The crowd was afraid that the president had been shot. And so when he stood back up and faced the crowd and then said, fight, fight, fight, it created this huge sense of relief. It was like palpable that he was fine.
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And then the part that I don't think has been well reported is that the crowd started chanting USA, USA, USA. Yeah. So they responded with this unity. It's been well reported that, you know, that Trump said fight, fight, fight. But I don't think it's been well reported that the crowd started cheering USA, USA, USA.
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So I think that the crowd turned from fear to unity and strength and patriotism, reflecting what they saw from the president. Yeah, it's well said. This is one of these things that's unbelievable. And the whole world, I think, has just seen how iconic it is. I saw there's a video online even, and I think kids in Uganda were actually reenacting the assassination attempt. That's how iconic it was.
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Trump's like a global legend for that. And again, there's just no way to fake what he did in that moment, right? Where, again, he... I mean, the bullet missing him was either luck or hand of God or destiny, whatever you want to call it.
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But him telling the Secret Service to stop, to face the crowd, to basically show that he was unharmed and that he was determined and he was defiant in the face of an assassin's bullet, that's courage that nobody can fake. And I've seen people online talk about how soldiers under fire, they've described how when they've been under fire, obviously they hit the deck, they don't
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Stand back up, you know, even soldiers don't do that. His composure is incredible. Yeah, he just rose to the occasion in just such an incredible way that I think it's inspired the whole country and the whole world. There's just no way, again, to fake something like that, even though some people...
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Like Reid Hoffman's political hack was actually claiming that it was all staged, which is just unbelievably ridiculous. But yeah, so I think the rest of the rest of the world knows that he just showed unbelievable courage in that moment and rose to the occasion and I think made the entire country proud.
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Vance, but I think it's just giving me way too much credit.
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I think he's doing well. He was in great spirits, I think. But let's, maybe we just should get into the assassination attempt. That's really the thing to talk about here.
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Well, Google had no choice but to fire these employees. They were being disruptive, and they were trespassing, and Google has a business to run. So this is what any business would do, and I don't think they deserve either credit or blame for taking the action they took. In terms of the protesters themselves, I think that
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in the fullness of time, we may come to think of them in a slightly different light. And some of this reminds me a little bit of another war, the protesters in another war, the Vietnam War, where they were very disruptive. In some cases, they trespassed. In some cases, they got arrested. They were easy to make fun of in terms of what they look like.
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They were sort of unkempt, unshaven, all the rest of that stuff. They were hippies. And at the time, people were, I'd say, very dismissive of them or actually antagonistic. They were seen as giving aid and comfort to the enemy and they were sort of demonized. But now in the fullness of time, we look back on that war and realize that they had a point. In fact, maybe they were right.
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In fact, maybe their actions were justified. And I think that how we view these protesters at Google can't just be judged now. I think it's going to be judged in the fullness of time based on how we perceive this war in Gaza. And I want to make two points about why I think this war will eventually be viewed as Israel's Vietnam. The first is that in Gaza, Israel faces a
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a guerrilla-style force, and they're in a quagmire. And if you read the latest news that's coming out of Gaza, what you'll hear is that after Israel has supposedly cleared an area like Gaza City or Khan Yunis, they then move south, Hamas has popped back up again. This whole idea that they can clear an area has been proven false. It's like playing whack-a-mole.
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They basically hit Hamas in one area, Hamas disappears down the tunnels, they come back in a different area. And this is why you're seeing a lot of articles now in Haaretz, which is an Israeli newspaper, saying the war in Gaza is already lost. You had the Wall Street Journal last week run an article saying that Israel is winning every battle but losing the war.
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which is, again, shades of Vietnam here. And you got to understand, the Wall Street Journal is the most pro-Israel of all the major mainstream publications. I don't think the Wall Street Journal has ever written a truly critical article about Israel. And they describe this whack-a-mole dynamic. You also have the General Gotti Eisenkopf, who's a member of
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The war cabinet, he's a member of the sort of war government in Israel, came out and said that we can degrade Hamas in Gaza, but we cannot destroy it. And he said, anyone who's telling you that we can destroy Hamas is telling you a tall tale. And that was, I think, an appointed reference to Netanyahu's claim that they would destroy Gaza. Hamas and Gaza.
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So you've got shades of Vietnam in terms of it being this unwinnable war. I think the second aspect of a similarity to Vietnam is just the huge number of civilian casualties. You'll recall that in Vietnam, the Viet Cong tried to grab us by the belt buckle. They knew that America had superior firepower, so they tried to get in close, use ambushes, BB traps, snipers. And in response to that,
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the Americans used immense amounts of firepower and bombing to try and subdue the Vietnamese. And 3.4 million Vietnamese were killed in that war, according to Robert McNamara. The second thing that happened is the rules of engagement in Vietnam got extremely loose. You took a bunch of scared American kids, many of whom were conscripts, you dropped them in a jungle.
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Pretty much because they feared ambushes, they shot anything that moved. And then finally, I think partly to justify this, you had a a dehumanization of the Vietnamese, that they were seen as somehow kind of subhuman.
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In any event, if you watch movies about Vietnam, like Platoon, which was made by Oliver Stone, who was a GI in Vietnam, or if you watch Stanley Kubrick's masterpiece, Full Metal Jacket, which was based on books about Vietnam, you can see these dynamics in play very vividly. Now, turn to Gaza. All you got to do is look at the miles and miles of video to see. It looks like a lunar surface.
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I mean, even in the words of Joe Biden, there's been indiscriminate bombing there. In terms of the rules of engagement, the rules of engagement have gotten very loose. A week or two ago, you had the deaths of those seven aid workers from the International Kitchen Organization. And there's an article in Haaretz recently about the kill zones have been set up pretty much
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if you come within a certain invisible perimeter of Israeli troops, you can be shot. I mean, those are the rules of engagement. And this is why there were three Israeli hostages who escaped. And they were running towards Israeli troops and yelling in Hebrew, and they still got shot. And again, this goes back to the rules of engagement being very loose.
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And then the final piece of it is you do have this dehumanization going on of the Palestinians. You can see this in a lot of the videos that have been posted by IDF soldiers. So look, I think that these protesters, their actions are going to be judged in the fullness of time. I think there are actually good reasons to believe that Israel's war in Gaza, it's shades of Vietnam.
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And I think that over the long term, people may regard these protesters in a different light. Right now, they're just seeing as being disruptive and annoying and interfering. But if this war is ends up being Israel's Vietnam, which I think it's on track to be. Again, I think that people may in time give these protesters a little bit more credit.
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Well, I think Chamath brings up an interesting point about Why didn't the protesters just focus on the war itself rather than Google doing business with Israel? My interpretation of that is they're trying to create a nexus to themselves, meaning they're employees of Google. They're trying to create a reason for them to stage the sit-in at Google.
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Otherwise, you know, if they just grab picket signs and were on the street, it would just be much less newsworthy. So I think they were just trying to create something newsworthy here. And it's kind of worked in the sense that we're talking about it. Other people are talking about it. So that's my interpretation of that is they were just trying to elevate the issue in a slightly novel way.
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But look, I think that they should be willing to pay the price of getting fired or getting arrested. I mean, if you're going to engage in that kind of civil disobedience or protest, you should be willing to accept the price. And I did see some comments by the Googlers who got fired saying that they thought they were being treated unfairly by Google. I think that's the wrong attitude.
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I think the attitude is, hey, this cause is so important to me that I'm willing to accept the price of being fired. saying that you don't deserve to be fired for disrupting the workplace. That is kind of an entitled attitude. So I think they should have just said, yeah, we did this on purpose because it's a really important cause.
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I mean, this just seems like a dog bites man story. I mean, what is the novel revelation here? The person running NPR is a liberal. I mean, I'm kind of with you, but what took 25 years to resign? I mean, all you have to do is listen to NPR. It's always been liberal. OK, this is not some recent capture of an institution going so crazy viral right now.
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Well, apparently there are some quotes that this new CEO, Catherine Marple, tweeted or said that you can point to that seem kind of woke and kind of crazy woke, but they're just actually pretty standard. I just don't see the breaking news here. If they end up firing Catherine Marr, they're going to hire someone just like her. I mean, they're going to have the same views.
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Rain Man, David Sack.
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NPR has always been left of center. And the only change that's happened is that the left has now become woke. And so it's become obsessively focused with the ideas of white supremacy and white privilege. And she simply reflects that.
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I just had one thing, which is I do think that the government should not be funding this anymore. I think NPR at this point is mostly funded by private donations, but it got started with government money and the government still funds it. And given that it is this left institution at this point, And really always has been.
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There's simply no reason for the government to be funding one side of the political debate that way. So I think there is maybe an issue there in terms of reminding people that, hey, this is like government funded. Why? And there's no reason why NPR can't be funded with either private donations or private subscription.
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Look, Jake, I agree with you. They could easily sub-stack it. NPR's not going to go away. Just create subscriptions and you're fine.
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Nobody cares. The government should not be funding one-sided ideological institutions on either side of the political debate. And you're right. If this was funding going to Daily Wire or something like that, people would be up in arms. So in any event, what's good for the good is good for the gander.
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Yeah. I mean, I'm having a hard time understanding all the controversies this week. I mean, reviewers are going to review. Protesters are going to protest and NPR presidents are going to NPR. Here we go. What's going on? Everyone's just doing their job. Yeah.
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Oh, so delicious. So delicious. High IQ foods. We should create a new category. High IQ foods?
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I hadn't even heard of this reviewer. What's his name? Marquez Brownlee? Marquez Brownlee. I never heard of him.
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Yeah, look, when I was running companies, I wouldn't care about what one reviewer said. I would care about the totality of the reaction to the product, which would include customers as well as reviewers and so forth. So I don't think there's any point getting too bent out of shape about one review.
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I think what's kind of happening in terms of the reaction here is that people want to give this company mercy points for being innovative. So my guess is the product just isn't ready for prime time, but everyone wants to kind of like, they want their viewers to take it easy on them or something because they are being innovative and they're breaking new ground in this area of wearables.
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But the reality is in the real world, where you want to charge people for your product, like customers don't have mercy points. Nope.
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And it's $700. Other than that, how is the play Mrs. Lincoln?
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I'm good. Let's get started.
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Who invested in it?
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Let's go. I got s*** to do. Don't waste time with your pointless banter.
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It's the banter, bro.
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Well, I would slightly disagree with you guys about this device. So first of all, I think that humans are becoming more and more cybernetic. We're getting more and more immersed with computing power. And I agree, it creates this anxiety and all these problems. But on the other hand, I think it's an irreversible trend. So I think that I would not bet against things that make us more cybernetic.
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I think the problem here is that this company is trying to do two difficult things. The first thing is it's trying to capture everything that's happening in the world around you to feed it into an AI model so it can make you smarter. The other thing it's trying to do is reduce your dependence on your phone by creating this new projection surface.
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And in my experience, when you try to do two hard things, you actually square the complexity and you square the difficulty as opposed to adding it. So I think of these two things, the one that sounds interesting to me is taking in all the information from the physical world and putting in an AI model that can be helpful to you. But I see no reason to replace the phone.
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I think it should just work with your phone. The problem they're going to have is that that pendant will compete with the Apple glasses and all the other wearables that are going to be created to suck in all this information, this computer vision from the world. Nonetheless, I do think that is the opportunity. It's not replacing the phone.
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It's layering a new platform on top of the phone that can kind of, you know, again, give you that Terminator mode in the real world.
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Yeah, I agree with that.
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Let me give a shout out to one of my favorite sci-fi book series. It's called Nexus by Ramez Nam. And it's kind of this like cyberpunk. futuristic series. But what he talks about is when we have this brain computer interface, you'll be able to upload your memories. And so, you know, you talk about this idea of recording your whole life through a pendant.
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Well, eventually, you'll be able to record your whole life based on just through your eyeballs. And, you know, you'd be able to upload, in theory, a first-person view of whatever conversation you've been in, you know? And so there's a certain... Look, this is pretty far off, but there is maybe a certain inevitability to that.
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And we're going to have to figure out how to deal with the privacy implications there.
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What is it? What's the plural of octopus? Is it octopi? Yeah. Aren't they like sentient creatures or something?
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Delicious. It's the IQ that makes it taste so good.
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Oh, my God. That's dark. That's dark. You're saying the IQ is like the spice?
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That's dark. I don't know.
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If you eat high IQ foods, does it make you smarter?
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Well, I think cannabis is the right analogy. I think adults should be allowed to bet on sporting events, just like they're allowed to drink or smoke pot or engage in other mild vices. Some people handle it responsibly and some don't.
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It's probably on a societal basis, it's probably not a great thing, but it's something you allow to happen because of personal freedom and hopefully people use it responsibly.
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No one bets on chess because it's so obvious who's going to win. There's a very precise rating system. Correct, yeah. So in poker, poker's very different because you can have players at the same table and you know who are the great players and who are not the great players, but still, in any given hand, the underdog can win because you can basically suck out or whatever.
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There's a significant luck component on every single hand. Over the long term, you believe that the luck kind of evens out and you reach your expected value. But on any given hand, you can believe that you're the winner. And so there's a lot of gambling in poker, even though it is a skill game. In chess, that just doesn't work. I mean, if I play...
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I'm a little better than that. I'm like, I'm probably more like 1600.
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Yeah, you could get a coach and that would definitely help. There's also these exercises you can do called puzzle rushes that teach you how to spot tactics, which is probably half the game.
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You just need to spot tactics quickly is really the key.
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I've watched a lot of chess videos on YouTube and there's a very good series by John Bartholomew called Climbing the Ratings Ladder. And for each level of ELO ratings, he has a series of videos. So like, I don't know, if you're like at 1200, there's a whole series for 1200s and he'll play a bunch of games against 1200s showing what they typically do wrong and you can learn from it.
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It's actually, it's a good series.
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Like openings is right. I haven't spent a ton of time studying them, but I'm certainly familiar with a number of the most common openings. So I guess, yes, I guess on some level I've studied them. I would say that depending on where you are in your development, that may not be the most pressing thing for you to do.
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Jake, I was on a seafood diet in Austin. If he saw food, he ate it. Old joke, but.
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I think you probably do want to just know a few basics of a few of the most common openings, but But there's probably other things for you to learn first. You don't need to memorize a bunch of complicated lines.
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No comment.
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Every mammal that wasn't buttoned down, J. Cal battered in barbecue sauce and
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No, it's the Joe Pesci voice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
All right, that was mine. That was mine. Oh, Zach was in the fake ID business too?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, this was in the days before holograms and it wasn't, it just wasn't that hard to, you know, so we just made like boards or whatever and Polaroids. So we did it for ourselves and we did it for friends. Yeah, same.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So we have plausible. They knew. We have plausible deniability. That's right. They just wanted plausible deniability. Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. Actually, well, it's kind of funny. Sometimes the bouncers would go, what's your name? And you'd be like, you'd be stumped because you didn't remember.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Or they'd ask you, what was your birthday? And you don't remember what's on your ID. You don't know what's on your ID.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
This is some degenerate sh**.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Rain Man, David Sack.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Well, I think you're assuming there that the long-term business model of OpenAI is in B2C subscriptions. And I think that's probably the least attractive business model they have available to them. It's sort of the first one and the most obvious one because they put out ChatGPT and then it's pretty easy just to roll out a premium version.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But in my experience, B2C subscriptions, it's just not a very attractive business model because consumers just aren't willing to pay a lot and they have high churn rates. And there's no possibility of expansion, really. So I suspect they're going to move in more of a B2B direction over time because that's where the real money is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And probably the way they do that is by monetizing all the apps that are built on top of it. And I think that in that sense, GPT-4.0 is a really important innovation. By the way, the O stands for Omni, which I think stands for Omnichannel. I think you may have said Omnivore, which is kind of funny too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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That's right. So there's three big innovations with this model, right? So one is Omni-channel, which means text, audio, video, and images. Second, it's more conversational, like it understands the tone of people talking and understands sort of sentiment in a way it didn't before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then the third thing, which is really important, is that it's just much faster and more performant than the previous version, GPT-4 Turbo. In the speed test, they say it's twice as fast. We've played with it at Glue. We can talk about that in a minute. And it feels 10 times as fast. It is much faster.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But it's the combination of all three of these things that really makes some magical experiences possible. Because when you increase the speed of processing, you can now actually have conversations with it in a much more natural way. Before... The models were just too slow, so there'd be a long delay after every prompt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So now, like you showed, it can do things like you point the camera at a blackboard or something with math equations on it, and it can walk you through how to solve that problem. Or two people can be talking and it does real-time translation. There's that old saying that every Star Trek technology eventually becomes true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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They've just basically invented the whole natural language, real-time universal translator. Yeah. So anyway, so those are some interesting use cases. But I just think they're going to be able to unleash a whole lot of new applications. And if they're metering the usage of the models and providing the best dev tools, I think there is a business model there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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That was good. Just one point on that is there are a whole bunch of startups out there that were creating virtual customer support agents. And they've been spending the last couple of years working on trying to make those... agents more conversational, quicker, more responsive, I think their product roadmaps just became obsolete.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Now, that's not to say there isn't more work for them to do in workflow in terms of integrating the AI with customer support tools and doing that last mile of customizing the model for the vertical specific problems of customer support. But my guess is that Hundreds of millions of dollars of R&D just went out the window.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And probably this is the best time to be creating a customer support agent company. If you're doing it two years ago, five years ago, your work has just been obsoleted.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you're an app developer, the key thing to understand is where does model innovation end and your innovation begin? Because if you get that wrong, you'll end up doing a bunch of stuff that the model will just obsolete in a few months.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We want you to wet your beak.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, well, it's a good point. I mean, I think where the AI ends, we want to use the most powerful AI models possible, and we want to focus on enterprise chat. So you could think of us as, for sure, a Slack killer or Slack competitor. It says that Slack wasn't built for the AI era. Glue is AI native. What does that mean? No channels. You know, I showed this to Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The first thing he said is, you had me at no channels, right? People are so sick of channels, you have to keep up with all these hundreds and hundreds of channels. And the real problem with channels is there's one thread in a channel that you want to see. In order to see it, you have to join the whole channel, and now you're getting all this noise. People just want the threads.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So if you look at what's the chat model inside of ChatGPT, it's just threads, right? You... create a topic-based thread in ChatGPT. The AI comes up with a name for it, puts it in the sidebar. And then if you want to talk about something else, you create a new chat. That's exactly the way that Glue works. It's just multiplayer. You just put the groups and individuals you want on the thread.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Let me just show you real quick. Here's my Glue here. And you can see that in the sidebar, I've got all the threads that I've been involved in. And like I said, you can address them to multiple people or groups. And then you've got the chat here. Now, we've also fully integrated AI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so Nick, who's our producer, just in this thread said, at Glue AI, what countries does SACS talk about most in episodes? Episodes is a group we created to be the repository of all of the transcripts of our episodes. And so Lou did a search and it said David Sachs frequently discusses Ukraine. What? The most. Yeah. Really?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So then Nick said, be more specific about Sachs stance on Ukraine-Russia war. Oh, boy. And it's going to overload the server. Well, it said here, David Sachs has articulated a nuanced and critical perspective on the Ukraine-Russia war across various episodes of the All In pod. Here are some key points encapsulating his stance. And it, like, nailed it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It talked about prevention through diplomacy, opposition to NATO expansion, humanitarian concerns, skepticism of military intervention, peace deal proposal. You know, I'll copy and paste this onto Twitter X later today. But the point is, it, like, nailed it across all these different episodes. And then, this is a feature of GLOOW, It provided sources.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So it cites where it got all the information from. So imagine, you know, we're doing this for the all-in pod, but you could imagine that instead of it being transcripts of a podcast, it could be your work documents. You now have in your main chat the ability just to ask, hey, at Glue.ai,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Remind me where we left that project or tell me who the expert is on this subject matter or who's contributed the most to this project. I've actually figured out using Glue AI who's contributed the most deal flow at Kraft. It's pretty amazing. Now, let me show you like some of the bonuses. What's the answer? I'm not going to say here. I think it's Brian.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We'll call it Kraft. All right, look, let me show you a couple.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Wait, what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay. So we talked about how ChatGPT 4.0 understands sentiment in conversations, and I think this is a really good example. So Evan, who's my co-founder at Glue, was just testing this for us, and he asked, what is each bestie's personality type based on conversations and episodes? First of all, it figured out who the besties are. We didn't program that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It just figured it out on its own, which is pretty impressive. Here's what it said about each bestie's personality. It says, Jason Calacanis, role, the moderator and entertainer, personality traits, charismatic, humorous, lively, and the glue of the group.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Often prays for his ability to make the podcast entertaining and keep the conversation flowing. Jason's energy and ability to bring humor into discussions are key elements that define his role in the podcast. Comments he's acknowledged for his role in bringing the group together. Chamath Palihapitiya, the visionary and hustler. Personality traits, insightful, driven, persistent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Chamath's relentless drive and ability to hustle are admired by his peers, making him a core part of the podcast and intellectual discussions. I'll skip me, but does Freeberg, the pragmatic scientist and realist. Pragmatic, methodical, and a bit reserved. Oh. Freeberg's often the voice of reason, bringing a scientific and realistic perspective to the discussion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, listen, I want to wish Phil Helmuth a happy birthday because I did miss his 60th party. Yeah, it's coming up, actually.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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He focuses on analysis, logical reasoning. And then it cites where it got this from. And it says here, overall, the dynamic between the four besties creates a well-rounded and engaging podcast with each member bringing their unique strengths and personality traits to the table. I think that's pretty incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, so what we're doing here is we're wrapping ChatGPT 4.0 with... glue features that we've implemented to get the most out of the conversation there's things we have to do to scope the the prompt and then we're using a retrieval augmented generation service called raggy which does rag as a service that basically slurps in our transcripts and makes them accessible to the ai
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So that's basically the stack that we're using. But as the models get better and better, glue just gets better and better. Again, we just want to ride the wave.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We just do it all in Glue. But we do it all in Glue, so it's already right there. But you're right. So the first thing that Glue AI has access to is all of your chat history, which is amazing because you get like... Then we can look at all your attachments. And we've got, I think, six integrations at launch. There'll be more. So yeah, all of your enterprise data will be there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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In the short term, you're right. You have to summon the repository by app mentioning because the AI needs a little bit of help of where to look. But in the future, it's going to figure it out on its own. So it's just going to become more and more seamless. But it'll insert itself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, that's where I want to go with it is I call that promptless. which is I want the AI just to chime in when it determines that it has relevant information and can help the team, even if it hasn't been summoned yet. But we need some model improvement for that, frankly. I mean, we'll be able to get there by GPT-5, but that's totally where this is headed. I'll show you just one more fun example.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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i could let me just show you this so i asked it to to write a letter to lena khan to be a guest at the all-in summit and i told it mention positive things we've said about lena khan in episodes of the all-in pod and so it wrote this letter dear chair khan we hope this message finds you well on behalf of the host the all-in pod we're excited an invitation for you to speak
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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at the upcoming All In Summit. And then it says, in our conversations, we have frequently highlighted your impressive credentials and the impactful work you've undertaken. For example, in episode 36, we acknowledge your trailblazing role. And so the letter was able to quote episodes of the All In pod Just without anyone having to go do that research and figure out what would be the best.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Because I told it, only say positive things. Don't say anything negative. And then it said, warm regards. And it said who the four besties were. Again, we never told it who the besties are. We just said, write us a letter. So it's pretty incredible. Now, this is an example with the all-in pod. Think about any work context where the AI has access to your previous work documents.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's pretty amazing what it can do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's an all-in exclusive today on the program.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's the weirdest thing. Yeah, you're right. Everyone's got their own little technique about how they bend the card. It's all destroyed by the end of the deck. They get thrown up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Freework, can I ask you a question? Does that mean that the boosted one has twice the number of chromosomes as A and B? Exactly right. So is that like a new species then? How does it survive with twice the number of chromosomes?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so- So this could only happen for a plant, right? This could never happen with an animal?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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How big are those potatoes?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It started as like a little creamer potato, basically, and you blew it up into a russet potato?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So why not just grow russet potatoes then?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think genetics is interesting. But so have you tried these potatoes? Do they taste different?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You haven't sprouted any horns yet or anything like that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's a high card. It's even worse than that. You're basically sitting down at the casino's table and then they tell you whether you've won or lost. And in order to convince yourself that that's not what's going on, you have to play with the card. But really, they just tell you you either win or lose. Let me tell you a story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm glad we're doing him second because all of a sudden, like, group chat doesn't seem very important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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He solved the world food problem. Yeah, Saks. What did you do for the last six months? Yeah, we made our price chat a little better, but...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Let me just make sure this is clear. So that last photo you showed with the different types of potatoes, you had created the super huge ones, but you're saying that The yield benefit here is just you create a much bigger, hardier plant that's capable of producing more potatoes. But the size of the potatoes doesn't change?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay, because your goal is not to turn like a russet potato into like a watermelon or something like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You're in. It may not be a 10 cap though, but yes. You're in.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We're each doing the things we do best. Freeburg is solving the world's hunger problem. And I'm cleaning up your slack. Making your enterprise chat a little better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Probably not. I mean, not until we're forced to. But what Millais did, he comes in and they've got a huge budget deficit and they've got runaway inflation and they're debasing their currency. And just practically overnight, he just slashes government spending to the point where he has a government surplus.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then as soon as he gets credibility with the markets, that allows him to reduce interest rates, inflation goes away, and people start investing in the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's obvious. Listen, I mean, you can't run... deficits forever. You can't accumulate debt forever. It's just like a household. If your spending exceeds your income, eventually you got to pay it back or you go broke. And the only reason we haven't gone broke or experienced hyperinflation is because we're the world's reserve currency. So there's just a lot of room for debasement.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And there's not a ready alternative yet. I mean, everyone's trying to figure out what the alternative will be. So we've been able to accumulate more and more debt, but it's reaching a point where it's unsustainable. And what we've already seen is that the feds had to jack up interest rates from very low, practically nothing, to 5.5%. And that has a real cost on people's well-being.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Because now, your cost of getting a mortgage goes way up. I mean, mortgage rates are over, what, 7.5% now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Right. And so, it's much harder to get a mortgage now. It's harder to make a car payment if you need to borrow to buy a car. And if you have personal debt, the interest rate's going to be higher. The inflation rate actually doesn't take into account any of those things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Remember, Larry Summers did that study where he said the real inflation rate would be 18% or would have peaked at 18% if you included cost of borrowing. That's why people don't feel as well off as the unemployment rate would normally suggest. So people are hit really hard when interest rates go up in terms of big purchases they need to make with debt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then, of course, it's really bad for the investment environment because when interest rates are really high, that creates a higher hurdle rate and people don't want to invest in risk assets. And so eventually the pace of innovation will go down. And Druckenmiller made this point in his next set of comments. He said that Treasury is still acting like we're in a depression.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's interesting because I've studied the depression. You had a private sector crippled with debt, basically with no new ideas. So interventionist policies were called for and were effective. He said the private sector could not be more different today than it was in the Great Depression. The balance sheets are fine, they're healthy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And have you ever seen more innovation ideas that the private sector could take advantage of, like blockchain, like AI? He says all the government needs to do is get out of the way and let them innovate. Instead, they've spent and spent and spent. And my new fear now is that spending...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the resulting interest rates on the debt that's been created are going to crowd out some of the innovation that otherwise would have taken place. I completely endorse Drucker Miller's view of binomics. And actually, I mean, this is what I said way back in 2021.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Druckenmiller used the word Bidenomics and said, I give these guys an F because they're still printing money and spending money like we're in a depression, even though we're in a rip-roaring economy. And when they started doing this back in 2021, I tweeted Bidenomics equals pumping trillions of dollars of stimulus into a rip-roaring economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm not going to pretend like I know what's going to happen next, but I've never tried this before. What happened next was a lot of inflation, and that jacked up interest rates. According to even Keynesian economics, the reason why you have deficit spending is because you're in a recession or depression, and so use the government to stimulate and balance things out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Good. Good. Yeah. Good week. Lots going on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You don't do deficit spending when the economy's already doing well. So this spending, there's no reason for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All of those things get you votes. Before we move on from this, look, what we have coming out of Washington here is a contradictory and therefore self-defeating policy. You've got the Fed jacking up rates to control inflation. You move across town and you've got Capitol Hill and the White House spending like there's no tomorrow, which is inflationary. Right. Why would you do both those things?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Choose what your policy is going to be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, the problem is you knew too much about journalism. You knew too much about the space they were trying to disrupt, and that could be a mistake. We did PayPal. None of us knew anything about payments. That was one of the reasons we were successful. All the payments experts told us it couldn't be done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Can you imagine how long it would have taken John to write a letter to Lina Khan? Like if we said, John, invite Lina Khan, but be sure to reference all the nice things we said about her on episodes of the pod.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's got to go find the episodes, listen to them. Yeah, listen to them to figure out what the best quotes are.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Well, look, this is the same conversation we've had two or three times where we're going to need the courts to figure out what fair use is. And depending on what they come up with, it may be the case that Google has to cut them in by doing licensing deals. We don't know the answer to that yet. By the way, I do know a founder who is already...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Skating to where the puck is going and creating a rights marketplace so that content owners can license their AI rights to whoever wants to use them. I think that could be very interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So I don't want to say who it is because I'm going to let him announce his own round, but I'm only participating in the seed round. Look, stepping back here, it's interesting. If you go back to the very beginning of Google, the OG Google search bar had two buttons on it, right? Search and I feel lucky. I feel lucky was just tell me the answer. Just take me to the best result.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And no one ever did that because it kind of sucked. Then they started inching towards with OneBox, but you didn't get the OneBox very often. It's very clear now that Gemini-powered OneBox is the future of Google Search. People just want the answer. I think that this feature is going to eat the rest of Google Search. Now, it's a little bit unclear what the financial impact of that will be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I think like you guys are saying, there'll probably be more searches because search gets more useful. There's fewer links to click on, but maybe they'll get compensated through those relevant ads. Hard to say. You're probably right that Google ultimately benefits here. But let's not pretend this was a deliberate strategy on their point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
They got dragged kicking and screaming into this by innovation and perplexity in other companies. They had no idea. They got caught completely flat-footed, and they've now, I guess, caught up by copying perplexity. And sucks for perplexity. I think they're kind of screwed now unless they get an acquisition deal. But perplexity came up with the idea of having citations
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Having a comprehensive search result, yeah, which was something... Search result with citations and related questions. And they did it extremely well. And quite frankly, all Google had to do was copy them. Now they've done that. And I think it does look like a killer product.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
One thing I would say about big companies like Google or Microsoft is that the power of your monopoly determines how many mistakes you get to make. So think about Microsoft completely missed iPhone. Remember, and they like they screwed up the whole smartphone, mobile phone era. And it didn't matter. Didn't matter. Satya comes in, blows this thing up to a $3 trillion public company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Same thing here with Google. They completely screwed up AI. They invented the transformer, completely missed LLMs. Then they had that fiasco where they had- Black George Washington. Black George Washington. Doesn't matter. They can make 10 mistakes, but their monopoly is so strong that they can finally get it right by copying the innovator.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And they're probably going to become a $5 trillion company now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I think if we had just gotten Sam on the day after the launch of GPT-4 Omni, as opposed to, what is it, three days before, he could have talked much more freely about it and it would have been interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Yeah, but I say if you're a startup and you make big failures, you usually just go out of business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Right. Remember this boombox? This is one of the huge differences between startups and big companies is that big companies can afford to have a portfolio of products. They have a portfolio of bets. Some of them will work and that keeps the company going. Startup really has to go all in on their best idea. Totally. I always tell founders, just go all in on your best idea.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
They're always asking me for permission to pivot. And I always tell them, go for the best idea. Don't hedge. Don't try to do five things at once. Just go all in on your best idea.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No, it's Memorial Day. Memorial Day. Memorial Day, the button can come down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
We'll let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
We need to get merchies already.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Well, now the rest of us look like s***.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I've never done that before. Sax, in your desk, in your desk is a piece of paper with your children's names and their birthdays. You want to pull it out and see? I got three birthdays a year and I've never done one. Let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I think what that means is that if the guest doesn't want to talk about something, we're not going to start peppering him with gotcha questions and things like that. I appeared at a conference a couple of days ago to promote glue, which we'll get to. And the first half of the conversation was like a normal conversation about what we were launching.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And then the second half was basically the reporter peppering me with fastball questions, which is fine. I knew what I was signing up for. It's a totally different style. It's a totally different style than coming on the pod and just having a normal conversation. But it's not really our job to make somebody open up if they don't want to talk.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No, I mean, it's not worth really getting into. You can watch it. Yeah, I was just curious. Look, I kind of like sometimes when reporters pitch me fastballs because, yeah, you can strike out or you can hit it out of the park when they do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
How much is that worth? Because maybe that does make Android a viable business on its own.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Okay, great. So let's do it. I take back what I said. It can't survive as an independent business. Chrome can't, right? Chrome can't. But maybe Android and Chrome go together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
It was a touch of inflation with a hint of unemployment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
If you break Google up from a conglomerate of, let's call it, four monopolies or duopolies or companies with extraordinary market power into four separate companies, they're still going to be generating extraordinary profits. And those could still be invested in a Waymo. So I don't know that it stops the innovation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Our workshopping this issue has pretty much convinced me that it should be four companies. Search, advertising, YouTube, and Android. Because I think Android could be a standalone business because of the value of the
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Well, it's where PayPal got its first funding round, where John Malloy from Nokia Ventures beamed the money to Peter and Max at Bucks. On a Palm Pilot. On a Palm Pilot, way back in 1999.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Did you say that Brian Nichol focuses on every nickel? Was that... He did say that. I didn't want to say it. He did say it. He did say, don't interrupt him. He doesn't like to be interrupted. No, no, it's good. Okay, sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Yeah, I would just add something here, which is I do think that macroeconomic forces played a huge role here. We've seen that we have had a tremendous amount of inflation over the last few years, and Starbucks has gotten more expensive. And if you're a worker whose wages have not kept up with inflation, do you really want to spend $10, $15 on a cup of coffee?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Good, good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I mean, it's a pretty fancy cup of coffee. I'm not saying it's not. But when you could just go to your commissary at work and pour yourself a cup of coffee for free... Do you really want to work roughly an hour every day to pay for your coffee fix? And I think more and more consumers are just saying that this is a luxury good. I'm looking at cut costs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
When I go to the grocery store and buy groceries, they're 30% more expensive than they were a few years ago. I got to cut somewhere. And a luxury cup of coffee just seems like a really easy place to cut. So I think that's a huge part of this. And I don't know how Brian Nichols is going to fix that. It's a macroeconomic force.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Could Starbucks introduce a line of low-calorie drinks that use sugar substitutes to achieve the same flavor?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
They come to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Can you show the Starbucks clip? Well, that's self-evidently true. I mean, he's basically making a point similar to what I said about Google's so large that employees can hide. and not do very much, and they can kind of coast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Well, it could be a genuflect. I don't know. Look, I would say that there are a lot of Americans who do feel that way about work, but I think it's not appropriate in two cases. Number one is if you're ambitious and you really want to rise in your organization, then you got to have more of the J-Cal attitude, which is I'm going to be the first to work and the last one to leave.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And I'm going to show my boss, I'm going to get promoted. So if you want to be ambitious in your career, that's not a good attitude to have. And then on the other extreme, if you're the CEO of the company, your attitude has got to be I'm 24 seven with this shit. You know, it's like I'm always online. I'm always reachable. The buck stops with me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Now, obviously, you're going to cut out time to be protected that you can spend with your family. But your attitude's always got to be that I'm available. You know, I don't turn off my phone. I don't do any of that stuff. I just think that if you're running an organization, you can't take this attitude that, oh, at 6 p.m., I'm switched off. You know, it just doesn't work that way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Yeah, especially if you're running one of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, if you're... I just don't think it's an appropriate thing for someone like that to say when he's the CEO of a multinational corporation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
It's much more productive because I think innovation happens as a team. You need collaboration, and it's way easier to do that when everyone is together in the same place. There's more room for spontaneity, more spontaneous interactions. The reason why Steve Jobs designed the spaceship campus in that famous circle was because it maximized the opportunity for serendipity, right? Like there's no...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Yeah. And look, I just want to underscore this point. I think there's nothing wrong if somebody says, look, my family is the most important thing in my life. I only want to work 40 hours a week. I'm going to do a nine to six job with an hour lunch break. That's 40 hours. Don't call me after 6 p.m.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You can design your career that way, but that is not a career that's going to enable you to either run a company as a CEO or be a founder of a startup or be on a track to one day being a founder or a CEO. It's just not compatible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Right, exactly. So you have to decide what track you're going to be on. And I think there's a lot of millennial Gen Z types who are confused about this. And they have the entitlement of saying, well, I want to just do the 40 hour a week thing. But then I also expect to rise rapidly and be an executive and be a founder or be a CEO one day. And that's not going to work. Yeah, it's not going to work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, so this story was reported by The Washington Post and by Bloomberg and others. So it appears to be more than just a rumor or conjecture. I mean, these are publications that are apparently well-sourced within the Harris campaign. So I think it is fair game for us to comment on this policy proposal that she apparently will be coming out with. Look, I think Freeberg is right about the policy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The idea of price controls is widely discredited across the political spectrum. I mean, I think virtually all economists agree on this. This was pride extensively in the 1970s, not just under Jimmy Carter, but Nixon tried wage and price controls and Gerald Ford had this whole program called Whip Inflation Now, where they put out these buttons called these wind buttons. And then Carter extended it.
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That's why we had huge lines to the gas pumps is because we had price controls on gas. And those lines of the pump went away almost overnight when Ronald Reagan came in and removed the price caps on gas. So we've tried price controls before. It didn't work. And it is remarkable that...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
She would be proposing here potentially as her first major policy proposal on the economy to go back to this 1970s era failed policy. And I think it's really tipping her hand in terms of where her economic proposals are going to come from and what she really thinks. Keep in mind that...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Throughout the Biden presidency, he rhetorically would blame corporate greed for the rise in inflation we saw as like a scapegoat because he didn't want to blame himself for all the spending. But she's going further now and actually instituting this as policy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Well, there was a really interesting story in the Wall Street Journal this week called Kamala Harris's Economic Team and Agenda Start to Take Shape. And it was interesting because it said here in the first paragraph that the challenge of her economics team is, quote, "...differentiating the candidate, which is Harris, from her unpopular boss, which is Biden, without abandoning his policies."
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And the problem that they have is that for the last three and a half years, there has been no daylight between Harris and Biden. And in fact, Corinne Jean-Pierre said exactly that in the article. There's been no daylight. They've been highly aligned.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Now, in response to that, what the campaign has been trying to do is, A, not say anything about policy, just try to redefine the candidate based on biography. She's done no interviews with the media. She's done no sort of unscripted speaking appearances. And the media has cooperated with this so far.
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The most egregious example was that Time Magazine cover story, which was this really gauzy profile that was hagiography, even though she refused to even do an interview with Time Magazine in that story. So strategy number one has been just to kind of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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hide from the media in terms of what she would really do strategy number two was adopting some of donald trump's most popular policies so she just announced no tax on tips she was i think widely kind of criticized for being a copycat on that and now we finally have strategy number three which is to tiptoe into the campaign with her own original proposal on price controls which i think is being roundly criticized but it shows
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
where her policy instincts are coming from. I mean, this is somebody who has always been on the progressive left. When she was a member of the Senate, GovTrack rated her as the most liberal member of the Senate, even to the left of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. And you're now seeing this come out in her policy proposals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
So look, I think she's definitely gotten a bounce in the polls over the last few weeks because of this favorable media coverage, but it's a sugar high based on something that's not substantive. I mean, she didn't put forward any proposals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And I think that now that she finally is putting out policy proposals that can be questioned and analyzed and criticized, I think this is going to be the beginning of, I would say, a big correction in her campaign.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
But you just said she's a socialist, not a moderate.
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Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I think Trump is a moderate in this race. Yeah. She's much more moderate than she is. I think that actually is true. Look, I think that she's pretending to be a lot of things. She's pretending to be a moderate when really she was the most liberal member of the Senate. She's pretending to be a change agent when really she's the incumbent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Keep in mind that she has been in office now for three and a half years as part of the Biden-Harris administration. And she was perceived within that administration as their emissary to the left wing of the party. I mean, remember that when she was put on the ticket, Biden was perceived as the moderate and she was perceived as the person on the left.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And she was going to basically help consolidate those votes. So she's pretending to be a lot of things that she isn't. And the reason why it's working is because the press is fully cooperated in letting her run a campaign without doing press interviews, without doing unscripted appearances. And the press, frankly, is embarrassing itself by revealing themselves to be effectively DNC operatives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And that Time magazine cover story was just the latest example of that. I do think that this strategy can only work for so long. I think that the media is starting to feel a little bit embarrassed. They're starting to get a little bit shamed about the fact they're letting her – Just give them the Heisman. And I don't think she can run out the clock for three months without doing interviews.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I just think that I think she can do this for another week or so. I think that they're going to run this playbook through the convention. But eventually she's going to have to start doing interviews and she's going to have to start putting out more. substantive policy proposals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And I think the fact that this price control proposal is their very first one that they've put out, I think this shows that this is not going to be easy for her.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Yeah, I mean, this idea that she can pretend to be a moderate and just run on vibes with no interviews and no substantive proposals, I don't think it's going to work for three months. I think she's going to reveal herself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, I mean, look, if we're talking about capitalism, I think about what the Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter said, which is capitalism is a process of creative destruction.
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And the creativity happens in the early days when you've got a founder who's creating a startup and the business gets big, but then it gets older and the founder goes away and the company can drift and become bureaucratic. And sometimes it can renew itself. And maybe you get a Brian Nicklin maybe to save it. And sometimes it doesn't.
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And the companies that get old and don't renew themselves eventually fade away, and they get destroyed and replaced by other startups. It's a system that has worked incredibly well in America, and that's the basis for all of our prosperity and innovation. When you compare that to the political process, it's very different.
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I mean, the political process kind of has this knee-jerk resistance to change and innovation, and it has an impulse to control things. It wants to control prices. It thinks it can solve problems with just top-down mandates, and it doesn't reform itself. It creates new bureaucracies and never gets rid of them. I mean, we create new departments. They never go away.
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They just keep getting bigger and bigger. There's never any creative destruction. It's just like a blob. It's a one-way ratchet of bureaucratic growth. So it's really clear what creates prosperity. And I do think we have now reached a point where the government has gotten so big and so out of control and so expensive that it actually is threatening this engine of creative destruction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And at some point, I think voters are going to have to make a choice about whether they're going to try and rein in the government and create more room for capitalism and innovation, or they're going to allow it to get overtaken.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
By the way, I mean, That invasion of Russia that you're talking about is not what you think it is. Here we go.
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I think you're falling for a lot of hype. I mean, what's happening is that the stage of the war is that the fighting is in the Donbass and along a 1,200-kilometer front in Ukraine, where the Russians have just been pounding the Ukrainians. The Russians have more soldiers, they have more artillery, they have more air power, and they have...
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air superiority, and they've just been annihilating the Ukrainians. I mean, Ukrainian casualties, according to some sources, are somewhere between 30,000 and 60,000 a month. It's massive and unsustainable. So what Zelensky did is he basically threw this Hail Mary, where he took some of their best forces, their best reserves, and had them attack this undefended part of Russia, Kursk,
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And yeah, they took a few hundred miles of undefended territory, but there's nothing strategically important there. And now Russian air power is basically creating significant casualties among those forces, and the Ukrainian forces are now trying to figure out what to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I mean, they're basically running around this part of Russia like headless chickens, trying to figure out where they can dig in and find some defensive fortifications. I don't know what Zelensky's trying to accomplish. I guess it's kind of a PR offensive. A lot of people have been fooled into thinking that this is somehow a game changer in the war. It's not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
All Zelensky has really done is take some of his best troops away from where the strategically important fighting is, have them attack this part of Russia, and over time, Russia's just going to mop them up. Did the Russians get caught with their pants down? Yeah, I guess they did. Is that an embarrassment to Putin? I guess it can be spun that way. Does it change the outcome of this war in any way?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
No, it's not. And what we're on track for is at some point, probably next year, Ukraine is going to collapse. I mean, their position in this war is unsustainable. And taking some of their top troops, feeding them into Kursk, where they can be easily picked off by the Russians, is only going to accelerate that process.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Well, the Nord Stream story is very strange because we're on our third or fourth explanation here of what happened. I mean, it was pretty clear that somehow the U.S. was behind it. And they've been blaming, you know, first they said that the Russians did it, right, which makes no sense. That'd be like the Russians shooting their own legs off. That was the first cover story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Then they kind of went with, I guess, illusioning he did it from a yacht. I guess that's the story they're on now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Well, no. So this report about that yacht being used and how Zaluzhny was like the mastermind of this. Yeah. This report is not anything new. This has been out for, I don't know, at least six months. I've always been skeptical about this. The thing to understand about the North Stream Pipeline is that it was a massive structure surrounded by huge amounts of concrete on the ocean floor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And blowing this thing up required... some significant expertise in underwater demolition. I'm just very skeptical that it could be accomplished by six guys on a yacht under Zelushny. I mean, the Ukrainians have never had a Navy. This just doesn't seem like something that's in their wheelhouse of capabilities. It always made more sense to me that the U.S. was involved somehow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I think intelligence sources want it to happen. I mean, they have to get their sources from somewhere, right? And I'm just saying that this story about delusion in the yacht has, this is not new. This has been out there for many months. Look, I mean, it could be true. I mean, I guess I don't know for sure, but I guess I'm also just saying that I'm a little bit skeptical about this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I mean, Seymour Hersh had other reporting from different sources who claimed that the U.S. was behind it. And President Biden himself at a press conference said, that if Russia invades Ukraine, we will bring an end to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. And when a reporter asked him, how will you do that? He said, we have ways, we'll get it done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And similarly, Victoria Nuland warned at a press conference that Nord Stream 2 will not move forward if Russia invades. And then lo and behold, the pipeline gets blown up. And if you're comparing which of these two forces has the capability to do something like this, I know for sure that the U.S. does. Ukraine, I'm just a little more skeptical of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
What about the explosives?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I don't think you're in a position to know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
You're also an explosive expert as well as a professional diver.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
That's why Russia can't beat them. I've also read the Seymour Hersh story, and it just makes a lot more sense to me. That's all I'm going to say is it just makes a lot more sense to me. And by the way, I've never taken away anything from the Ukrainians as a fighting force. I mean, clearly they are fighting bravely and they are hardcore. I've never taken that away from them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And I'm certainly not saying that they're incompetent or anything like that. And they've definitely been massively plussed up by American weapons.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I would like to see America stay out of other people's wars, and I would have liked to have seen them agree to a peace deal that would have avoided this war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
It's not my war. I don't think America should take sides in other people's wars. I think we should stay out of them, and I think we should agree to peace deals when we can and not sabotage those peace deals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I agree with Chamath that Google has the opportunity to do something really interesting here, which is get ahead of the curve and break itself up before the political system forces that onto it. And the advantage of doing that is that it could partition the company in ways that are economically smart. The big categories would be search, advertising, and YouTube.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And I think that would have two big economic benefits for shareholders. One is you unlock value by deconglomerating, like Freeberg was saying. Second, once you break up the company into these pieces, there's less places for employees who aren't doing anything to hide, you know, for all this bureaucracy to hide. I mean, look, Google is famous for employees who don't do anything, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
The guys sitting on the roof, setting themselves all day. If you break up the company into three or four smaller companies, right, there's just way less room for people to hide. And I think that they could all be leaner, more efficient operations, and that would accrue to the benefit of shareholders. So I think that would make a lot of sense. And then furthermore,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I guess a third point is that you forestall the possibility of the government doing something that could actually be very harmful. And the piece here is that I guess the DOJ is talking about spinning up Android and Chrome. And I think it's worth pointing out that those aren't really businesses in and of themselves.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
The reason why Google developed Android and Chrome was to prevent anybody from getting upstream of them, right? They saw what Microsoft did in terms of capturing the operating system and then capturing the browser, and they didn't want to potentially allow Microsoft or anyone else to essentially
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
win the high ground, capture the high ground upstream of them, and be able to divert traffic away from search to their own search engine or someone else's search engine. So they began this strategy of commoditizing those layers of the stack, and it worked brilliantly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I mean, Android and Chrome have become very popular, and it guarantees that nobody else can get upstream of them and then disremediate them. But the problem is, if those things get spun out, and have to become businesses on their own, how would they function as businesses? It's not clear to me that there's an obvious strategy there. I would like to ask Freeberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Freeberg, do you see a way that Chrome and Android could be spun out and become viable businesses on their own? Or do you agree that they were essentially created to commoditize layers of the stack rather than become profitable businesses on their own?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
compensation is commensurate with the performance of the company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
I believe we did vote for it in 2018. But this is about long-term value creation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
No. I believe we used the information we had available and made the best choice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
That's a great question. I would go to my board. I would talk with my board.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
I know you actually created it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
That is, you're correct, one of the sticky points, you know, because this CPI, you have to parse it like you're saying in grocery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
We can see that we are definitely in July now because we have one button to go for August. And so it's kind of like the sundial. You know, the Greeks, we created the sundial, math, plumbing, philosophy, democracy, all these great things. And the Italians, you guys created...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Yeah. That phenomenon you're talking about previously is relative deprivation, Freeberg. It's a phenomenon where you compare yourself to other people and you feel like, I'm getting screwed here. Sax, what's your take on this AI bubble? Because I've got some data I'm about to pull up on it, but let's just get there right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
How much of this boom that we're seeing in the stock market is this AI bubble?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And just to be clear, they're not just a chip. I mean, people think they're like a chip. They think something you hold in the palm of your hand. They're like a racked server that's like 50 pounds.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Well, you heard it here first on the All In pod. Here's episode 181 six weeks ago. No Shrikanis wasn't involved in this one, but here's Chamath and Freeberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And so I think inspired in part by that, David Kahn from Sequoia Capital, legendary venture firm here in Silicon Valley, published a blog titled AI $600 Billion Question. Khan said there was a $500 billion revenue hole when considering AI CapEx levels. He got this number by calculating that companies need to show around $600 billion in AI revenue to justify projected CapEx levels in Q4.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And he generously assumes Google, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Tesla, and others will generate $100 billion annually combined. That's pretty generous. And that still leaves a $500 billion hole. Here's the NVIDIA data center run rate revenue, as you can see, q4 of 2023 50 billion, and now 150 billion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And then you have the data center facilities being built and the cost to operate those implied data center AI spend, and then of course, your software margin concept, he also thinks that the GPU shortage already peaked last year, we'll get to that later. On June 25th, a couple of weeks ago, Goldman published a 31-page report called Gen AI, Too Much Spend, Too Little Benefit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So you heard it here first on the All In pod, and I think everybody's kind of catching up with this theme. Companies are going to spend $1 trillion, according to the report, on AI CapEx over the next several years. Usually that's three to five, and we use the word several. AI productivity gains are limited in the near to midterm, the next 10 years, and AI's ROI
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
is likely significantly limited due to costs. The costs of AI are so high, and the revenue potential is so unclear, there's a chance the economics never make sense. Here's a choice quote, and then I'll get the reaction from the team.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Replacing low wage jobs with tremendously costly technology is basically the polar opposite of the prior technology transitions I've witnessed in my 30 years of closely following the tech industry. And that's Goldman's head of global equity research.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's an interesting concept here, Chamath, that you're saying like, hey, making like fun images or, you know, maybe rewriting your blog post, but that's low, that's low wage work. So what are your thoughts on this report, these two reports? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
A lot of walking, a lot of walking. Let me ask you this. Have you ever had a glass of wine while working out? Has that happened? Have you ever been tempted?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's an interesting psychological phenomenon there, Friedberg, of The capital alligators, the tech industry, the entrepreneurs, they want to believe in something. And the previous paradigm shifts were ending. And here we go, a new paradigm shift. Perhaps we're such a efficient capitalistic machine now that we almost like process stuff super quickly in some ways, Freeberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
You know, we deploy massive capital. We try to solve huge problems. I mean, and then maybe we hit the reckoning and the trough of despair that we talked about, you know, many times, innovator's dilemma, you know, crossing the chasm kind of style. So what are your thoughts on Chamath's point there or any other points you might have?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Okay. Were you on the treadmill or were you doing weights? Were you on the weight bench when you said? Yeah, I was pushing weight. Okay, pushing weight. Okay. Back in 88. Okay. And getting ready, according to reports, I don't know if we can talk about this, but David Sachs is in the think tank getting ready for his RNC debut. How are you, Rain Man? Yeah, definitely, definitely giving a keynote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Zach, you want to maybe give us your thoughts here. Bubble, do we work our way out of it? Are we overspending? Or is this all manifest destiny? You know, if you build it, they will come kind of situation. We throw all this capital there. We make a lot of progress on these projects and something comes out the other end, as messy as it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Now that's consumer at $20 and enterprise at like $30 a month. And then there's also the API.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Snap upgrade.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
B plus is a strong start for you too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I got to tell you, I've been using Claude and ChatGPT 4.0 and it is extraordinary quality. how fast they fixed going to the web to get information. It used to be arduous and painful to get updated information. And so I was like, hey, get me all of these. I think I may have told this story previously here on This Week in Startups, but I was talking about like I was doing research on salaries.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And I said, just grab me all the information from Glassdoor, Indeed, high salary, low salary, average salary, these two different cities, put it in a table and give me the links. And it did it. And I was like, that's like... a college-educated person's job for $40 an hour, call it, whatever it is, a $60,000, $70,000, $80,000 a year person. So I'm in the bullish gap with you, Sax.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I think it's being overbuilt, sure. But I think we're going to see a tipping point next year where a lot of labor arbitrage occurs. And what I mean by that is people are figuring out ways to cut jobs, or have one person do three jobs. And I'm seeing it across all the startups we invest in senior with Athena, the company we invested in, I mentioned earlier,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And I'm really interested in robotics now too. I think there's going to be some incredible gains with Optimus and some of the other robots that are occurring. And those things are only going to cost 20 grand. So this is going to be pretty amazing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Great. Any theme that you're going for?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And the compliant part means you're working in the tech group or the marketing group, and you don't, you know, search the HR department's data. Yeah. Guys, let me ask you just a general question, though.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Yeah, I think they get there. I'm totally honest. No, no, no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Yeah. I mean, there's so much dry powder sitting around at these large companies. I think capital is a weapon kind of situation, but it could be a big opportunity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I mean, what are they going to do? Give a dividend? I mean, God forbid, right? Like, I mean, Facebook started giving one, Apple's giving one. So maybe, you know, I think that's how they can't do M&A because Alina Khan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's like It's like nukes. It's like nukes. You never use them. You build them out. It might be the good comparison.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So we'll keep the cards close to the chest. And from the mountains... at the beep, beep. Then he can talk about your Sultan of Science looking oddly not pale. You got a little sun there, brother. Looking good, Dave Freeburg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
To my point, it was reported earlier this week that Andreessen Horowitz, that's a very large venture capital firm here in the Bay Area, is building a 20,000 GPU cluster. We mentioned earlier, $20,000, $30,000 a GPU is what you can estimate there. So this is hundreds of millions of dollars to try to cut deals and win deals with AI startups.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And so they stole this idea from Daniel Gross, which you probably don't know who that is, but it's a company called Pioneer Labs and Nat Friedman from GitHub. They did this last year. Same exact idea. They acquired 2,500 H100s and they gave their portfolio companies access to it in something called the Andromeda Cluster. Really brilliant idea. There's the tweet from Nat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's not clear whether A16 is purchasing these or they're just going to pay for them on AWS or Google Cloud or some other provider. But if these were purchased, obviously hundreds of millions of dollars. What's your thought here? I won't go through all the details. I'll just go right to your opinion, Shamath. What's your thought on this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Well, you also have to power these. You have to put them in a data center. There's a lot of cost to these things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's also a crazy, conflicted bet too, because NVIDIA was using these chips in the same fashion. They were using allocations to get investment allocations in companies and then paying them off. So now you have Andreessen buying them from NVIDIA. It's also convoluted. Amazon was doing this as well with AWS, giving credits, et cetera. So tried and true strategy, but very strange.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I'm just saying it's weird because they're giving money to NVIDIA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
All right, gentlemen, let's get to the docket. There's a lot to talk about. Let's start with macro. We haven't talked macro. Everybody wants to talk a little macro. And I got a lot of news today. The big question is, has the soft landing been secured? Obviously, stocks are still surging records again this week, last week. All the jobs seem to have burned off and unemployment is moving up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They're going to charge back. You think they're going to charge back the startups?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I think this is brilliant for year 012, like Pioneer Labs was doing, because those people really don't have the money. If you're a viable concern, you can easily get the money to buy your own or rent your own. And we just said in the previous story that the glut and the wait is over for these. So interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I'm about to say, this is a PR marketing exercise, and it worked. Well done, Mark, because we're talking about it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I think they've gotten $100 million in marketing of it just by...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
You're using the language model API, so it's abstract. Correct. We don't need them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
As we wrap up here today, Freeberg, your thoughts. And you had mentioned in the group chat, last minute addition to the docket, you wanted to talk about the French elections. And I know Sachs was tweeting about it because all the people who hate him were sending it to me. So I always know when he tweets about something spicy. Go ahead, Freebrook, what do you got?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
That was one of Jay Powell's major efforts. And all the stimmy savings, as you pointed out, Shamrath, are long gone. And today, the big news, CPI came in at 3%. Perhaps inflation has been cracked. Here's your chart, gentlemen. Economists were expecting 3.1, so the print was meaningfully cooler than expected. And CPI actually fell 10 bps on a month-on-month basis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Sacks, you didn't mention... immigration, specifically Muslim Islamic immigration in France, that seems to be a big part of this issue that people aren't talking about and the lack of integration of that population into society. In fact, I've been told by folks in France that it's kind of the opposite.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Islamic Muslim immigrants are kind of shunned and aren't integrated by the French people themselves. I'm not sure how true that is. I don't have a lot of firsthand experience in it. But how much of that is part of what's happening in this right-left, you know, Donnybrook occurring in France? Because they're literally on the streets fighting and rioting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Obviously, when you see that three handle, that is year over year. And this is the first time we had month-over-month CPI decrease since May of 2020. So lowest CPI in three years, Jay Powell said the Fed doesn't need, he said this earlier this week, he doesn't need to see the 2% inflation to start the cuts. Obviously, I guess he wants to steer or speed up going into the turn.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They're very nationalistic. Let's call it what it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So just to recap what you're talking about, they have two rounds of elections here, they have a first round, a second round. If you don't win the majority in the first round, then it goes to the second round runoff. And then strategically, what Macron and his party did was they took the multiple parties and said, hey, we'll just have you all drop out and consolidate our votes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Almost like in a microcosm in the United States, it would be like,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Fox Business loves me. No, they're looking for a moderate. They want a moderate independent thinker, and they love Nostracanus.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They consolidated the candidates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Le Pen's party still got outvoted in each of those districts, right? Is that correct? Only because... They dropped a candidate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So September cut looks highly likely. If you look at the prediction markets, Fed funds futures now see an 89% chance of at least one rate cut by September. That's up from 73% before the print, according to FedWatch. That's a tool that tracks interest rate traders. We discussed the Fed wanting to see employment and savings cool.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It would. And what has Trump done in Trump 2.0 that I think, I don't know who could have possibly coached or given any feedback to Trump of how to win this election, but he seems much more presidential. He seems normal. He basically went right to the middle on abortion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Well, in June, unemployment was 4.1%, the highest since 2021, up from 4% in May. Here's the stunning chart of unemployment since 1948. In April 2023, unemployment bottomed out at 3.4%, the lowest since any of us were born, 1969. And you can see here there's been an uptick from this incredible historic low. So, Soft landing appears to be working. The jobs market slowing down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
He went right to the middle on immigration and he's not acting like a lunatic and name calling and, you know, his debate performance was fantastic. He just sat back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
America's very unique in that. We had a concept called the melting pot where you would culturally assimilate. And if you say that today and you were to teach that in schools, I think people would get very upset. Very upset, totally. By thinking like you are giving up your culture. No, you've chosen to leave your land and make a new world here in this new experiment called America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And if you assimilate, you're welcome here. If you don't want to assimilate, you're not welcome in America. That's what they taught when we went to school as Gen Xers in the 70s and 80s.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Inflation has dropped, tempered. And the market continues to hit all those all-time highs. S&P up 26% since last year. Mostly, of course, thanks to NVIDIA's record-breaking performance, but also Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, a lot of the FANG, Magnificent Seven. So I guess, Chamath, let's just start with you. Has the soft landing been secured?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Let's wrap up here on the hot swap summer update and the speed run primary. Biden still insists he's still running for president and he will not stand down. Since the last episode, so much has happened, including George Clooney writing an op-ed in the New York Times this week. I love Joe Biden, but we need a new nominee. Two weeks ago, Clooney co-hosted a fundraiser with Katzenberg and some other
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Hollywood bigwigs that raised $30 million for President Biden, twice as much as you guys did for Trump. But I mean, this is Hollywood.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I know. I'm just saying it's really impressive what you guys did. Clooney is also besties with Obama. And Obama has put out a tweet in support of Biden. But according to a political report, Clooney gave Obama the heads up before he published this. NBC is reporting that Biden has lost his donor base. Anonymous quotes, the money has absolutely shut off. It's already disastrous.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Two of the sources said this month is on a path to be down by possibly half or much more from large donors. Adam Schiff, who is as partisan as they come, said Biden should slow down and make the right decision here. He also said he should get new counsel, independent counsel. So that was on Meet the Press. And Nancy Pelosi gave a non-answer when asked if she supports Biden as the nominee.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And again, as partisan as they come, Tim Kaine said, complete confidence Joe Biden will do the patriotic thing. in regards to what you just now made.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Hold on. No Strakatis is going to make a prediction. Ah, I've got it. A whistleblower will emerge in the next 10 days. If you are a doctor, a nurse, a secretary, an EA, or part of the inner circle here, and you know he's in cognitive decline, whistleblow it. Hock two on that whistle and get it out there, folks, because we know there's a cover-up. We know there's a cover-up. So spit on that thang.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Hawk two.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Of course there's a cover-up. I mean, come on. Did you see this report that a doctor, a neurologist went to the White House?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Visit it. And the New York Times is putting this out there. And then watch this clip of KJP who is absolutely covering everything up. We all play poker. This person is bluffing. They're lying. It's so obvious. Play the clip, Nick.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
The point of a press conference is that you ask questions and you ask hard questions. This person is covering it up. It is a huge cover up. I haven't seen somebody lie this boldface since Elizabeth Holmes. If you had the machine that did the blood test, you'd show the machine. If there's a cognitive test that shows he's not in decline, they would show the test. Show the test.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
If you're a whistleblower, release the test. Somebody out there has the results of these tests. And if you're a doctor and you're covering this up, if you work in that White House and you're covering this up, it's the most unethical, un-American, immoral thing you can do. And this is the reason we have whistleblower protections. There are 50 people who probably know what's going on here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And I know there's at least five. So somewhere in that number is somebody who has a profile in courage, who will come out and tell the American people what the hell is going on here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I know, but this not telling the truth in a press conference with the press and then admonishing the press, admonishing the press like this, it's complete utter bullshit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And we need to give one person his flowers here. Dean Phillips came on this program seven months ago. And if you listen to All In, the number one podcast in the world, you're going to know what's going to happen in the future. It's not just Nostracanus here. The guests come on and tell us the truth. Dean Phillips told us, I quote, when I asked him, I'm not sure who asked him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
When we asked him, he said, people are saying that I'm causing his problems. that I could risk his reelection. I'm certainly not the guy that has shown his decline. That's on video. That's on audio. You see it. He's a human being, for goodness sake. Seven months ago, he said this. He's a human being. He's now in his 80s. He is clearly in decline.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
But do I think he will be in a position to continue leading this country in the future? I do not. I think I'm joined about 75% of the country in saying that. He was clear on this podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Of course. Yeah. I mean, that, listen, that worked last time. Trump in the overwhelming majority of Americans felt Trump's first presidency was too divisive and it was too chaotic. They used that to win. Okay, fair enough. Now they're trying to use that again. It's not working. Why? Trump 2.0. He's coming across as reasonable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
A lot of the things he got right when you re-underrighted him about the border, he got that right. The economy was pretty good under him. He did some things correct. He's not like all demagogue and all evil. I have my problems with his behavior.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I've made it documented here, but you cannot use that excuse anymore because Americans are gonna say cognitive decline, somebody with Alzheimer's, like my aunt, my uncle, my parent, whatever they've experienced it firsthand, For Trump, it's an easy choice for most Americans. And that's why Trump will beat Biden. And that's why they're going to do the speed run. And that's catching steam next.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And let's just, we can wrap on that, I think. I mentioned here the speed run primary a couple of weeks ago. Nick, roll the clip. must credit Nostracanus. They're going to do a Democratic primary speed run. Here's what's going to happen. They're going to do five debates in 10 weeks. And then whoever wins, wins. Kamala, he's going to resign. Kamala becomes president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Kamala gets to run in the speed run. She gets to speed run like everybody else. Dean Phillips gets to come in. Everybody speed runs it. They take over the media. The media will go crazy over the summer. Massive ratings. Boom. Pull up the semaphore article. After I made my prediction, two Democratic Party insiders have floated this very unique idea in semaphore. It's a pretty obvious idea, I guess.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Biden steps down as the nominee.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It was my idea. Because I did not hear it anywhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Well, here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I don't know what's happening in this bizarro universe. I put on a red tie and all of a sudden I'm getting everything right. Who knows? Biden steps down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I guess I got to name check me. But here's what Semaphore says. This is their version. Biden steps down as the nominee mid-July. Okay, that's now. Biden announces the new system with support from Kamala Harris. Candidates would have a few days to throw their hats in the ring. Democrats would start a primary sprint. Oh, not a speed run, a primary sprint, where six candidates, not 10,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
who've received the most votes from delegates pledged to run positive-only campaigns in the month leading up to the DNC. Weekly forums for each candidate will be moderated by cultural icons. Oh, interesting punch-up. Michelle Obama, Oprah, Taylor Swift, in order to engage voters, as I talked about taking over the media.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Nominee will be chosen by delegates using Rank Choice Voting, your favorite sacks, before the start of the DNC on August 9th. So anyway, there you have it, folks. Speedrun coming. Whistleblower, August 19th. Speedrun... and the whistleblower. Look for it this month.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Okay. Freeberg, your thoughts, and then we'll go to Sachs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
You worried about him?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Shout out to Scott Adams and his hoax list. Here we go. Scott Adams is obsessed with his facts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
God, when they started, this is when you knew something was in the air. When he got like, started getting ovations and clapping from the rigged, CNN audience for the town hall. I mean, or maybe CNN did that and set up themselves and set up the Democrats. I don't know. I don't think it was a setup.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
He can beat anybody comedically. You got to admit that Trump has the huevos. He can immediately beat anybody in mainstream media.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
This episode's off the rails. For the chairman dictator calling in from Italy, my bestie, David Sachs. I'll see you on Jesse Waters and at the RNC. For Freeberg, who's genuflecting somewhere in a retreat center, I am. I'm no stracanus and I have a prediction. I have a prediction. We're going to see you at the next episode, everybody. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And now the plugs. The All In Summit is taking place in Los Angeles, September 8th, 9th, and 10th. You can apply for tickets, summit.allinpodcast.co. And you can subscribe to this show on YouTube. Yes, watch all the videos. Our YouTube channel has passed 500,000 subscribers. Shout out to Donnie from Queens. Follow the show, x.com slash the all in pod, TikTok all underscore in underscore top.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Instagram, the all in pod, LinkedIn, search for all in podcast and to follow Chamath. He's x.com slash Chamath. Sign up for his weekly email. What I read this week at chamath.substack.com and sign up for a developer account at console.grok.com and see what all the excitement is about. Follow Sachs at x.com slash davidsachs and sign up for Glue at glue.ai. Follow Friedberg, x.com slash friedberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And Ohalo is hiring. Click on the careers page at ohalogenetics.com. I am the world's greatest moderator, Jason Calacanis. If you are a founder and you want to come to my accelerators and my programs, founder.university, launch.close.apply to apply for funding from your boy J-Cal for your startup. And check out athenowow.com. This is the company I am most excited about at the moment.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
athenowow.com to get a virtual assistant for about $3,000 a month. I have two of them. Thanks for tuning in to the world's number one podcast. You can help by telling just two friends. That's all I ask. Forward this podcast to two friends and say, this is the world's greatest podcast. You got to check it out. It'll make you smarter and make you laugh, laugh while learning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
We'll see you all next time. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
People are talking about that? Talking about that freeberg of that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They call this the inputs, right? This is what they say, the inputs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's very interesting, the obsession with the two. I brought this up on the show. The 2% handle and this target came from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. This guy, Roger Douglas, Minister of Finance, And he came up with it because they just asked him, like, well, what's a healthy one? And he came up with that, and then everybody adopted it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Basically, it's just sitting out there. Okay, so for a completely objective, nonpartisan view of all this incredible economic data, we go to our RNC correspondent, David Sachs. Throw a wet blanket on this incredible news.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Just going down the middle here. Joking, obviously, but a little bit. But this is just rate the Fed's reaction to this. It seems like the Fed's supposed to be independent. Obviously, this Fed chair has worked across administrations. So We've said here very critically, they got started too late. They should have got ahead of this, but I mean, rate their performance since then.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Do you think they're nailing this and there's going to be a soft landing? What you have concerns, you're optimistic about the economy and how they've handled it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Rain Man, David Sasson.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Psychology has so much to do with this. I thought I was doing a little research on it, why it's so contentious and there's so much of a lack of consensus about it. Nick, pull up this chart. I wanted to share it with you guys. This is basically a psychological phenomenon called partisan economic perception. And this has been studied for some time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And what's really interesting about it is it shows what percentage of people who are Democrats and Republicans here in the United States of America say the economy is good. And if you look at Clinton, and he got to be president at the helm during the internet revolution and this incredible economic boom, he was obviously so centrist, right? He appealed to both sides of the aisle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
A fugazi? Fugazi?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And you had this very tight consensus that the economy was good. Democrats were maybe three or four percentage points above Republicans in that perception. And then Bush came in and all of a sudden Democrats hated Bush so much that they perceived the same economy 2000. And you obviously have the dot com bus there. So they both went down in unison, especially after the Great Recession.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
All right, everybody, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. It's been confirmed by the CEO of Beep, who told us we are the Beep podcast on his platform. It's episode 186. From the home office in Italy, the chairman, dictator Chamath Palihapitiya. How you doing, brother? Hello, Jason. How are you? We're good. We're good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
But you have this disparity that comes up, Chamath, where you have 25 points between how they perceive it. Obama, obviously, Democrats were incredibly enthusiastic about Obama, effusive even, but Republicans hated him with a passion, right? I mean, that was really when Fox News started to get cooking. And then you look at Trump, same exact phenomenon. It flips. Under Trump, 80% of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Republicans think, oh, the economy is good. And then Democrats say it's not good. And that plummets and you get this big dispersion. There are two moments in time, Freiburg, where, or three, when you start to see the consensus get tighter, and that's during a crash. So there's your dot-com crash, great financial crisis, and an election. Yeah. And great. That's a very good point, actually.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I didn't notice that. And then also during the pandemic. So you have three crises.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So Freiburg, you know, looking at this, I think it explains so much of the tension in the country that we can't even agree on, you know, hey, is the economy good? It's just everything is perceived through your partisan lens. What's your takeaway from this? Is it that we just don't run moderates anymore like Clinton?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Would there be like a specialized chip that would run on the phone that was really good at powering a phone size AI model?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
What about computer vision? I mean, they have glasses or maybe you could wear a pendant. I mean, you take the combination of visual or video data, combine it with voice, and now the AI knows everything that's happening around you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
We saw that with Google Glass. People got punched in the face in the mission. Started a lot of fights.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
What are the apps that could be unlocked if AI was sort of ubiquitous on people's phones? Do you have a sense of that or what would you want to see built?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Thank you. Thank you, guys.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Okay, sure. I mean, I think the whole industry is waiting with bated breath for the release of GPT-5. I guess it's been reported that it's launching sometime this summer, but that's a pretty big window. Can you narrow that down? I guess, where are you in the release of GPT-5?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
What was your take on it? People got really emotional about it, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Stronger reaction than you would think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Yeah, and they're clueless. These people are clueless.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
So here's the point. What happened?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I said, I think that's happened to you before, J. Cal. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Basically, you got fired by tweet. That happened a few times during the Trump administration. A few cabinet appointments got tweeted out. They did call me first before tweeting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
What percent of it was because of these nonprofit board members?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
But I mean, like, was there a culture clash between the people on the board who had only nonprofit experience versus the people who had startup experience?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Actually, let me ask you about that. So the mission of OpenAI is explicitly to create AGI, which I think is really interesting. A lot of people would say that if we create AGI, that would be like an unintended consequence of something gone wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
horribly wrong and they're very afraid of that outcome but open ai makes that the actual mission does that create like more fear about what you're doing i mean i understand it can create motivation too but how do you reconcile that i guess why i think a lot of i think a lot of the well i mean first i'll say i'll answer the first question in the second one i think it does create a great deal of fear i think a lot of the world is understandably
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
If I could go back in time. Why don't they give you a grant now? Why doesn't the board just give you a big option grant like you deserve?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
It's PLO. Sam, thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
It's nuts on everything, honestly. Thank you so much. Thanks for coming on. Thanks, Dan. Let's have you back when the next F the Big launch. Sounds good. Please do. Cool. Bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
There clearly was some sort of culture clash on the board between the people who originated from the nonprofit world and the people who came from the startup world. We don't really know more than that, but there clearly was some sort of culture clash.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I thought a couple of the other areas that he drew attention to that were kind of interesting is he clearly thinks there's a big opportunity on mobile that goes beyond just having a ChatGPT app on your phone, or maybe even having a Siri on your phone. There's clearly something bigger there. He doesn't know exactly what it is, but It's going to require more inputs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
It's that personal assistant that's seeing everything around you and helping you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Yeah, he's talking about an executive assistant or an assistant that has executive function as opposed to being like just an alter ego for you or what he called a sycophant. That's kind of interesting. I thought that was interesting, yeah. Yeah, and clearly he thinks there's a big opportunity in biology and scientific discovery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Our time was limited and there's a lot of questions that we could ask him that would have just been a waste of time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Yeah, of course he's going to no comment on any lawsuit and he's already been asked about that 500 times. Should we take a quick break before we come back?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Speaking of billionaires who are coming, isn't *** coming too? Yes, *** is coming. Yes, he's booked. So we have three billionaires.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Like, if you ever got one place... Do not poke the bear. Well, by the way, speaking of updates, what did you guys think of the bottle for the all-in tequila? Oh, beautiful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
You're going to, you're going to want to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Looks like we can. Oh, is it going to make it? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I mean, the vol design is so complicated that we had to do a feasibility analysis on whether it was actually manufacturable, but it is. So, or at least the early reports are good. So, we're going to, hopefully we'll have some made for the, in time for the all-in summit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I think you're exaggerating what happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Look, they're not threatening anybody, and I don't even think they tried to barricade him in. They were just outside the building, and because they were blocking the driveway, his car couldn't leave. But he wasn't physically locked in the building or something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I didn't see it coming. The Constitution of the United States in the First Amendment provides for the right of assembly, which includes protest incidents as long as they're peaceable. Now, obviously, if they go too far and they vandalize or break into buildings or use violence, then that's not peaceable. However... Expressing sentiments with which you disagree does not make it violent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And there's all these people out there now making the argument that if you hear something from a protester that you don't like, and you subjectively experience that as a threat to your safety, then that somehow should be treated as valid, like that's basically violent. Well, that's not what the Constitution says.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And these people understood well just a few months ago that that was basically snowflakery. That, you know, just because somebody, you know what I'm saying? We have the rise of the woke right now where they're buying into the woke right. They're buying into this idea of safetyism, which is being exposed to ideas you don't like, to protests you don't like, is a threat to your safety. No, it's not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
So now we have snowflakes on one side. We absolutely have snowflakery on both sides now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
That's not cool. Yeah, obviously you can't do that. But look, I think that... Most of the protests on most of the campuses have not crossed the line. They've just occupied the lawns of these campuses. And look, I've seen some troublemakers try to barge through the encampments and claim that because they can't go through there, that somehow they're being prevented from going to class.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Look, you just walk around the lawn and you can get to class, okay?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Some of these videos are showing that these are effectively right-wing provocateurs who are engaging in left-wing tactics. I don't support it either way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Look, there's no question that because the protests are originating on the left that there's some goofy views. Like, you know, you're dealing with like a left-wing idea complex, right? But... And, you know, it's easy to make fun of them doing different things, but...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
The fact of the matter is that most of the protests on most of these campuses are, even though they can be annoying because they're occupying part of the lawn, they're not violent. And the way they're being cracked down on, they're sending the police in at 5 a.m. to crack down on these encampments with batons and riot gear. And I find that part to be completely excessive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Yeah, that crosses the line, obviously.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
oh my god the overdubs on her were hilarious i was like uh humanitarian i was like we need our door dash right now we need to be double dash some boba and we can't get it through the police we need our boba low sugar boba with the with the popping boba bubbles wasn't getting in but you know people have the right to protest and a piece of bull by the way there's a word i've never heard very good sax a piece of bull inclined to avoid argument or violent conflict very nice
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Well, it's in the Constitution. It's in the First Amendment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
What about Lama 3? Llama 3 running on a phone? Well, I guess maybe there's like a $7 billion version. Yeah, yeah. I don't know if that will fit on a phone or not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I think maybe what they're trying to do is the selling point of this new iPad is that it's the thinnest one. I mean, there's no innovation left, so they're just making the devices thinner. So I think the idea was that they were going to take this hydraulic press to represent how ridiculously thin the new iPad is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Now, I don't know if the point there was to smush all of that good stuff into the iPad. I don't know if that's what they were trying to convey. But yeah, I think that... By destroying all those creative tools that Apple is supposed to represent, it definitely seemed very off-brand for them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And I think people were reacting to the fact that it was so different than what they would have done in the past. And of course, everyone was saying, well, Steve would never have done this. I do think it did land wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I mean, I didn't care that much, but I was kind of asking the question, like, why are they destroying all these creator tools that they're renowned for creating or for turning into the digital version?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Well, also holding it forever could mean one share. Yeah, exactly. We kind of need to know like how much are we talking about?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I don't know if it's good enough to kind of do the thing I'm thinking about here. So when Llama 3 got released, I think the big takeaway for a lot of people was, oh, wow, they've like caught up to GPT-4. I don't think it's equal in all dimensions, but it's like pretty... pretty close or pretty in the ballpark. I guess the question is, you know, you guys released four a while ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Well, if you're running out of in-house innovation and you can't do M&A, then your options are kind of limited. I mean, I do think that the fact that the big news out of Apple is the iPad's getting thinner does represent kind of the end of the road in terms of innovation. It's kind of like when they added the third camera to the iPhone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
It reminds me of those, remember like when the Gillette Mach 3 came out and then they did the 5?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
But then Gillette actually came out with the Mach 5, so the parody became the reality. What are they going to do, add two more cameras to the iPhone? You have five cameras on it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
That would have been a funnier ad. Yeah. Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Yeah. The all-in-one TV would have been good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
You're working on five or, you know, more upgrades to four. I mean, I think to Jamal's point about Devin, how do you stay ahead of open source? I mean, that's just like a very hard thing to do in general, right? I mean, how do you think about that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Actually, that would be pretty amazing. Like if they did a Crestron or Savant. Because then when you just go to your Apple TV, all your cameras just work. You don't need to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Well, everyone has Apple TV at this point, so you just make Apple TV the brain for the home system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And you can connect your phone to it, and yes, that would be very nice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Enough. I'll be here for three more nights.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Love you, boys. Bye-bye. Love you, besties. Is this the all-on pod or open mic night? What's going on? It's basically it. I'm just bored.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
I'm David Sack.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Tesla just launched the Tesla mezcal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
In that beautiful lightning bottle. I just ordered my bottle of this like two seconds ago while we were doing the show. Uh-oh. Because this sold out in like two hours before. And now the bottles of the original Tesla tequila go for like $2,000 now on eBay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So get yours now if it's still... Smokey Moscow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
We're both going to be sold out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
A little bit. A little bit. A little bit. Well, first of all, Vinod should realize we're not MAGA extremists or extremists of any sort because he's at all in Summit last year. He was great. Yeah, we like what he had to say. Productive. And I certainly don't dispute his expertise and track record in tech. But in addition to that, then he's saying that we're not based in Silicon Valley.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, look, I agree with you guys that this is just too soon to be opening these investigations. It's true that OpenAI and NVIDIA have leads in their respective markets, but that's all it is at this point. It's way too early in the development of these markets to say that these are clearly monopolists. There's still a lot of competition going on. If a few years from now,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
NVIDIA still has whatever, 85%, 90% market share, and no one's even close to catching up. Then maybe you consider it a monopolist. Same thing with open AI. But it just seems very early to be rushing into investigations of these companies. I mean, the AI market is what, 18 months old, two years old maybe at most? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Yeah. So it's just very early to be doing this. Look, I think this is of a piece with... Remember that executive order or whatever that... Remember when the White House issued that 100-page-plus... executive order on AI regulation, we covered it on the show. And we also thought that was too soon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And we thought that if the internet had been regulated in that way in, you know, circa 1995 or 1997, it never would have blossomed the way that it did. You know, you want to give these markets some time to play out before you bring down the heavy hand of regulation on them. So it just seems to me like the administration is getting carried away here with this desire to regulate this new space.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I mean, frankly, it's of a piece with, I would say, an innovation hostile agenda. You also have the attacks on crypto. You just had Biden veto a bill that would have finally given crypto a regulatory framework in the US. It passed with 60 votes in the Senate, including Democrats like Chuck Schumer. And it still wasn't good enough.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Oh, and it was based on a framework, I think that came from the SEC. But Biden is basically in the Elizabeth Warren camp that he's going to give no quarter to crypto. So you've got hostility to AI. You've got hostility to crypto. You've got hostility to M&A. No one can get an M&A deal through right now. You put all these things together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Plus, you've got hostility to options as compensation in terms of the 25% unrealized gains tax. You add up all these things, and again, I think this is an agenda that does not benefit Silicon Valley at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
We're not from Silicon Valley. We've all been here for decades. And then he doubled down on that in a tweet. So that's a bizarre statement. Maybe he thinks he gets to define people in or out of Silicon Valley. I don't really understand it. But to be frank, this is one of a series of statements that he's made recently that I can only – call insulting and childish.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's like he's doing everything he can to basically alienate Silicon Valley.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, there's a lot of conspiracy theorists online who agree with you. A lot of tinfoil hat speculation that he's going to get switcheroo. Hot swap. But look, I mean, I think you make the correct point, which is, you know, I didn't really think about it this way, but you're right. Biden is the decel candidate. And nobody wants that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Also, Trump has shown a learning curve where he recently has been saying positive things about crypto. Yeah. And he's always, I think, been more pro-economic growth. He was a real estate developer from the private sector. He actually understands the economy. So there's no question that he would be more pro-innovation, much more pro-innovation than Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And to your point about this is one of the reasons why people are coming to the fundraiser, I had someone from the campaign said something very interesting to me. She said that we've never seen this many new donors at an event before. So we're turning out the new donors for this reason. And we're not gonna be intimidated by people calling us names. It's like, look, in any normal election,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
people in an industry would vote for the candidate who they see as most aligned with what is good for them, their families, their industry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
First, he had this tweet that he said that Trump supporters were lacking in empathy and caring. Then he had another tweet where he said that Trump supporters weren't teaching good values to their kids. This caused Sean McGuire, who's a partner at Sequoia, to quote tweet him saying that, I think that I'd rather raise my kids to grow up to take after Ivanka Trump than Hunter Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
People want jobs and prosperity. From your lips to God's ears. Do the hot swap. I mean. I don't really have a lot more to say.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, I just think that his point is that people shouldn't be forced to buy EVs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I mean, I don't think he's against them per se. I think he's against people being forced.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Look, I think that what the new administration, hopefully, or what Trump should propose is effectively a modus vivendi with big tech, where the point is that if you stop censoring our people, if you stop censoring conservatives, if you restore the civil liberties of the average American to say what they want online, to...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
basically bank online, to stop essentially deplatforming and censoring people, then we will let you innovate. We'll let you do M&A. We'll let you get back to business. That basically is the basis for a peace agreement between big tech and the Republican Party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And that got something like 20,000 likes, and it was one of those brutal ratios I've ever seen on a tweet. So in any event, I mean, this is just one in a series of partisan tweets. And look, I think you can take whatever position you want on a political candidate. I can understand if he doesn't like Trump. A lot of people don't. He's raising money for Biden. That's fine. Doesn't bother me at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
No, I don't see any manipulation there. Like Jamal said, he's just posting a meme. Not guilty. Not guilty. What I see in that clip is Jim Cramer trying to stir up an SEC investigation of Keith Gill. For what? I mean, what exactly has he done here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Right, exactly. That's not an issue at all. But what I do take offense at is labeling millions and millions of ordinary Americans as somehow lacking in empathy, lacking in caring, not being good parents, because you don't like their support for Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Right. If he was one of those apex predators on Wall Street, if he was one of those major hedge funds that donates a lot of money to the political elite, in other words, if he was a well-connected political player, I doubt anyone would be asking these questions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think that that is a statement that, frankly... reeks of being cocooned in an elite bubble for way too long. And let me just explain. If you look at where Trump's support is strongest, it's really in middle America, in sort of the heartland of America of what- Basically, the part of America that Coastal at least dismissively refer to as flyover country. Sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So when's the right time to put a short on this company?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Melvin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
They bid up the stock to levels that realistically it's not worth that much. Disconnected from reality. It basically creates a short squeeze. So the stock flies up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Then the hedge funds know it's overvalued. So they basically put new shorts on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And then they do the next short squeeze.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And you did it in two minutes. I mean, anybody can look at your analysis and see.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think there's a big difference. Well, because we need a stock market. We need the ability for companies to go public. It just so happens that you can get this weird effect where some stocks can become meme stocks. But that doesn't mean you want to design the entire... system of securities laws around one or two meme stocks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The fact of the matter is that investors are sufficiently protected by robust disclosure requirements that apparently GameStop has followed. All that information is out there. You basically dismantled the company in like two minutes. So anyone watching this show has all the information they need not to buy this stock at 190 times earnings, okay, if they choose to follow that information.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And it's a lot of the industrial Midwest. And frankly, that part of the country has not had the same type of economic experience that we've had in Silicon Valley. Of course. They have not been beneficiaries of globalization.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Are we doubling down, Sax? What are we doing?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
That's a double down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
That's a double down. That's a double down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Definitely double down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
That's some serious degeneracy. It looks so fun though.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
There's only one a day? Oh, my God.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, yeah, look, if you're in one of the handful of export industries in America, and I'm talking about if you're in Hollywood or you're in big finance or you're in software, then globalization has been great for you because it has created huge global markets for our products. However, if you're in an industry that has to compete with global exports, then it's been very bad with you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Did not, did not know that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think there's a particular dealer they've got. They do. It's like in the bullpen. The blank cooler.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And blue collar workers have been hurt, labor's been hurt, people who work with their hands have been hurt. They have not benefited in the same way from the system that we've had in this country for the last 30 years. So you can understand why they would not be so enchanted with elite thinking.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Oh my God, we should get him to play a special all-in hand and let him run up our capital.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think to then label those people as lacking in caring or empathy or not being good parents because they haven't had the same economic ride that you've had for the last 30 years. It's a blind spot. You are the one who is fighting a legal battle to kick some of those people, the public, off a public beach.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
kick the public off of the public beach in front of your beach house. And then you're saying they're the ones lacking in empathy. Dude, look in the mirror.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, we kind of predicted that something like this could or should happen. We said that the big win for Apple in AI would be to make Siri actually work based on an LLM. Because Siri just, you know, its understanding of language historically has not been great. And that's really limited the usefulness of it. Imagine if Siri worked with the conversational abilities of ChatGPT 4.0.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
If it had that level of semantic understanding, if it could talk to you the way that 4.0 can talk to you, that would make Siri really powerful. And for me, Siri is a feature I've turned off because it's so annoying. Oh, it sucks, right? It never works.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
If you give it the power of the best open AI model and then the speed of running it natively on the iPhone, I don't know what they're going to do about that, but Presumably, there are things they can do to speed it up. And then you give it access to the internal APIs you're using to control apps. That could be really powerful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It could be an agent that you can just tell it to do things and not just ask the weather and the time and set alarms.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
One is 45 and one is 47. What? Here we go. Oh, it's karma. Do you know the significance of that? Of course.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's a great product, and if you sweat like a pig at night like J-Cal, it's particularly good for you. It'll keep you cool.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
That's a good point. Larry Summers spoke at the same conference that Vinod did.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Yeah, we've offered the exact same thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, you still care what they think, J. Cal. That's the problem. So they can get to you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
You can ask me. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Non-stop. You're ruining it, J. Cal. You're just ruining it right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
What people haven't figured out yet is cancel culture is over. Virtue signaling is over.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's off-trend, not on-trend. And the people who are still tweeting these blanket statements and they're trying to demonize the entire other side with unfactual, unfounded potshots are just making fools of themselves. And you can see that in the reaction on X. All right, let's move on. We have some breaking news here. Oh, no. Just to put things on a happier note.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Well, sure. I mean, look, the whole ecosystem at Silicon Valley exists to help make founders successful. I mean, I was a founder myself. Now I'm an investor. There's also talent who don't found companies themselves but want to join them. The whole thing is organized to make founders successful. And the whole idea that people are out to get the founder, I mean, this is a really antiquated idea.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
There was some truth to it in the 1990s. By 2002 or 2003, when Peter Thiel created Founders Fund, he called it that to emphasize that founders should be in charge. I'd say by the mid to late 2000s, no one really disagreed with that anymore. Yeah. So this whole idea that like people are out to get founders rather than make them successful is antiquated by at least 15 years, I would say.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah. I mean, look, there was some truth to it, I would say, in the 1990s. There was a prevailing view in Silicon Valley 30 years ago that once the company got to a certain level of size, you hire a professional manager. Subsequent to that, people figured out that the best performing companies are indeed the founder-led companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
companies, the ones that keep the founder engaged for a long period of time, they tend to build the most value. Everybody understands that everyone wants the founder to be successful. The question is, how do you make this founder successful?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And I think there is a perverse dynamic where if you teach the founder that, hey, you're always right, and everybody else is a liar and a faker, then that can create a distortion effect where founders don't feel the need to level up. We all want the founder to level up. I mean, I would always rather invest in the founder who has vision over some professional manager, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You want the visionary to succeed, but you need them to level up and learn, you know, just basic management over time. And if you're teaching them that, hey, founder's always right, there's less incentive to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, everyone has to figure this out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, look, Ryan has been right before. He's been right in the past. But in this case, it looks like he's clearly over his skis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And if the reporting is correct, it looks like he's trying to drum up interest in a financing round by representing things that aren't true or haven't happened yet, saying that certain investors are important and those investors are coming out and saying that they're not. The question I think that's relevant and that relates back to our previous topic is this founder mode.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I mean, what makes this not founder mode? And I think that this is where it'd be helpful to have a little bit more substance and not just a branding exercise. Let me give you a more mundane example. I was in a board meeting the other day. And I commented to the team on how they had gotten their burn down substantially since the last board meeting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And somebody joked, one of the founders said founder mode, and it was kind of a joke. Okay, great. But then it got me thinking, what if in this board meeting, it had gone the opposite way and the founders had taken the position, you know what, we're not going to try and cut burn.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
We're going to put the pedal to the metal and accelerate the business and spend a lot more because somehow it's going to get us to the next funding round faster. Wouldn't that have been Founder Mode 2?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So when you start branding these concepts without putting any substance behind them, and quite frankly, you've never been an operator yourself, you've never actually created a unicorn company, but you're representing yourself as a unicorn whisperer, like you're a guru in something you've never really done before,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
then it just allows people who want to justify bad behavior to basically get away with doing whatever they want. And that's what you're seeing with founder mode now, Jake. The reason why that joke is funny, you're doing your Tony Montana bit, is because you can justify any bad behavior as founder mode.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And I think that's what all the memes are about right now, is that founder mode's become a joke because there's no substance to it and it allows you to justify anything a founder wants to do. And I think a more honest way to approach this would be to define here are the actual behaviors that make a founder successful, including when a founder is wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, to be frank, there's a certain kind of con man who represents themselves as a guru, even though they've never done the thing that they pretend to have done. And yeah, and in this case, frankly, you've got someone promoting concepts about operating. when they've never done that before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
They've never scaled a unicorn company, yet they're pretending to be a unicorn whisperer who's telling founders how to behave. And the question you need to ask, is this, at the end of the day, helpful or not? I mean, we all want to exalt and celebrate founders.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Exactly, but we all want to win. And, you know, James Madison said that, you know, men are not angels. What do you do about those cases? Rare. I think they're pretty rare where the founder is just wrong about something. Where they're like representing that investors are going to do something that they're not going to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Or Elizabeth Holmes represents that she's got a product that she doesn't have. Or you have a founder breaking a regulatory requirement that actually is necessary that they comply with. What do you do in all those cases? You actually need to have some objective standard of behavior that's not just, oh, founder is always right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Traditional managers are always wrong because that's just not nuanced enough to account for what it's actually going to take to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah. I mean, in my experience, the founders that are highly successful are the ones that are hands-on. They've got a strong vision and they pursue it and they're constantly learning and leveling up. And they're going to learn wherever they can. They are going to learn from other founders. They're going to learn from executives they may have hired who maybe do have more traditional background.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
They're going to figure out what works for them and they're going to discard the parts that don't work for them. And they're going to double down on the parts that do, and the end result is going to be a style that works for them. And there's not a one size fits all to that, as we've seen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Right. And just I think the turning point was when Peter started Founders Fund. But that was over 20 years ago. In other words, Peter realized that that old approach in the 90s of bringing in the professional management had run its course and that we needed to help founders level up and stay in the seat for as long as possible. That was 22 years ago that he created that firm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So we're like decades into this, and that's what kind of feels anachronistic about this whole discussion is it's almost like we're pretending like we're still in a world in which founders aren't celebrated and exalted. It's quite the contrary. They can do almost anything. And the question is, how do you help them level up?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And at some point, if you're constantly just saying that, well, founders know everything, founders always right, is that actually helping them? Or is it actually reinforcing a mentality that, oh, I don't really have to learn anything? Because all the great founders have been learning machines.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
But if they had been told throughout that you're always right, don't worry about it, then they may not have learned the same way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Oh, wow. Founder mode. If he founder modes, I'm in a founder mode. I got a founder mode, too. Where's J. Cal?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Megyn Kelly. The phenomenal Megyn Kelly. Didn't she call you a prick, J. Cal?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I don't agree. I have a very different opinion on this than you guys do. And I always have. Well, first of all, let me just speak to the the legal precedent here. Last year, there were two Supreme Court decisions addressing this very issue of whether algorithms basically obviated 230 protection. And the court found that they didn't. There were a couple of cases involving
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
users who basically went down a rabbit hole of like terrorist videos and got recruited by ISIS. Remember this? Yes. And they were sued by the families of victims, or at least the social networks were. And the argument was that they basically had been recruited into ISIS and committed the terrorism because of the algorithms and the social networks were liable for that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Supreme Court found that they weren't, which is just to say that algorithms were not treated differently than if the content had been on a regular feed, just a chronological feed. And what Section 230 says is that you can only hold the user liable. We're going to treat social networks as distributors, not publishers, for the purpose of user-generated content.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I've long held the view that if you want to make online platforms liable as publishers for every piece of user-generated content, then you're going to have very little free speech left. Because I just think that corporate risk aversion is going to force these guys to become even more censorious than they already are.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Every piece of content that could potentially lead to a lawsuit is going to get shut down. And I think that the net effect of that will be much more negative. Now, to the argument about aren't algorithms just the new editors, I don't think so. I think there's a fundamental difference between what an editor does and what an algorithm does.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
If you look at an editorial page of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, it has a very specific point of view that it's promoting. In fact, sometimes you can't tell the op-ed page from the news page because it seems like that publication is so biased in favor of one point of view or another. An algorithm isn't supposed to do that. An algorithm is supposed to give you more of what you want.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And so therefore, if you are pro-Trump, you'll see more pro-Trump content. If you're pro-Kamala Harris, you'll see more Harris content. In other words, X or whatever the platform is, isn't supposed to be taking an editorial position on whether it supports Trump or Harris, but rather is giving you more of what you want. Elon recently spoke to this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
He had a tweet recently where he talked about, hey, people are coming to him saying, hey, I'm seeing all these like offensive things in my feed. Why is this? Well, it turns out that they had been sharing those posts that were offensive to them. And so they were seeing more of them. And that's a really good example of how the algorithm just gives you more of what you're interacting with.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So don't interact with outrage porn. If you don't want to be outraged, stop interacting with outrage porn and you'll see less of it. I just think that is fundamentally different than having an editorial point of view. X does not have an editorial point of view that it wants you to see more of that outrage. It's simply the user is making clicks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And, you know, clicking a share button in a way that it interprets it to be saying, oh, this user wants more of that content. Yes. And so this is why I don't think that all of a sudden Section 230 protection should be voided. I just think it's a fundamentally different thing than what a publisher does.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think there is a relatively easy solve, which is you could simply open source the algorithm like X has done. So we can see, is it messing with your mind or not? Is it actually biased? Are they actually inserting editorial opinions into the algorithm? And so if you open source it, people can see what it's doing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I actually, I hear this point of view a lot that social media is only preying on negative emotions. That argument is made a lot by people who want to regulate it more and they want more censorship and that's why they're making that kind of argument. I don't think that the algorithm is only reacting to outrage or incitement. I think quite the contrary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
What I've seen on my X feed is that it's showing me more stuff that I like. And I'm, that's right. I mean, the algorithm has gotten so good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And maybe 10 year olds shouldn't be allowed to use TikTok without any supervision. Maybe that's a better answer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I will agree with that to some degree that I waste way too much time using X. But I mean, I just do it to stay up on current events so I can do this pod.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
If I didn't have this pod, maybe I could just stop using it. That'd be great. I'd love to have that time back and just read more books.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You have lost your mind.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
No, you need a detox. Anyone who disagrees with you is on Putin's payroll now. What's wrong with you? My friend, Comrade Sachs. You're like the reincarnation of Joe McCartney.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You're the one with Russia on the brain.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Who would have predicted there's going to be another Russiagate hoax just in time for the election? You did. You did.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
There's a lot of people who started with Trump derangement syndrome, and then they held Putin responsible for Trump getting elected. So the TDS became PDS, and they got Putin derangement syndrome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think this whole story is such a waste of time. We shouldn't even waste time on it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
What pressure techniques?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You do have a horse in the race. You've believed in the Russiagate hoax for many years, and you want to basically try and restart that whole thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
They get Democratic people. That's been my story from the beginning. You've changed your story a little bit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
That's Putin's goal. So I think the place to start is with asking the question, who is Lauren Chen and what is Tenet Media and what has been their objective or what's their agenda? Yeah. And their agenda now for months has been what's called division grifting inside the conservative movement. Lauren Chen's been putting out a lot of tweets explaining to people that they should vote against Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Wait, $350,000 just for startups whose founders come to our summit?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
She's been saying that he has gone soft on issues like abortion. She's been pushing a very tough pro-life message. She's been promoting a, I'd say, strange and almost fanatical idea that we should repeal the 19th Amendment, which... gave women the right to vote. No one in the conservative movement seriously thinks this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And because of these positions, she was already being called out by people like Ashley St. Clair and Mike Cernovich, who said something's not right here. This seems like an op, like these positions don't really make any sense. It seems like she's just causing mischief. So the place to start here is to recognize that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
If the Russians were paying Tenet Media to put out content, that content was actually anti-Trump. It was trying to get people to vote against Trump. So I think the place you have to start is by asking the question, why would Vladimir Putin want to get Kamala Harris elected? In fact, Putin just came out today and announced his endorsement of Kamala Harris.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So perhaps the Russians have an agenda to vote. get Harris elected. I could see why. She is the much weaker candidate. She's afraid to take questions on the tarmac. Trump is strong. He's authoritative. And I could see why they might prefer to have a President Harris than a President Trump. Let me just stop there and get your reaction to that, J. Kel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Total, across all the founders who are at the summit. No, no, no, per business. Per business, oh my gosh.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think that this is all wildly overstated, but to the extent we're going to deal with it at all, I think it's really interesting how when the Russian operation benefits Kamala Harris, nobody accuses her of collusion or being a puppet of Russia. They just say it's about sowing division. When did that happen? You just did that right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I'm just saying that with tenant media, it's benefiting her. I just explained how.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
What I'm saying is there's a double standard. There's a double standard in the coverage here and how it's interpreted. When the op, when the alleged op benefits Harris, it has nothing to do with Harris. When the alleged op benefits Trump, Trump must be a Russian agent, must be a Russian puppet. There must have been collusion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And you were among the forefront of people saying that Trump himself was compromised.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Look, J. Cal, this is the third straight election in America in which we've been led to believe that there is essentially massive Russian interference in our election. But I think we should ask, what did we learn since the last two elections? In 2016, okay, we had the Steele dossier. which hatched the whole Russiagate hoax.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
We subsequently found out that Hillary's campaign created the Steele dossier, and then that was taken up by the deep state. They basically did a investigation of the Trump campaign. They went to the FISA court. They lied to the FISA court. And we had a two-year independent counsel investigation based on a piece of opposition research that turned out to be completely phony.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
But we heard every day on cable news for years that the Russians had somehow interfered in that election. Never proven. In 2020, we heard that the Russians again were interfering because you had those 51 security state operatives say that Hunter Biden's laptop was Russian disinformation. That turned out to be a total lie. The laptop was authentic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
That was just a made-up story that the Russians were involved. After that, let's not forget, there was NewsGuard and Hamilton 68, which were two bogus media watchdog groups that were deep state ops that were designed to get conservative content censored as Russian disinformation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So now, after all of these ops in which it was alleged that the Russians interfered in our elections and those stories turned out to be completely bogus, we now have this new one about Tenant Media. And I don't know the truth of this story. I can't say one way or another whether it's accurate or not. But what I've learned is not to take these things at face value.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And if we are to take it at face value, tenant media was working against Trump's interests. So apparently the Russians don't want Trump to win the presidential election. They want Kamala Harris.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I don't know what the point of bringing up all these investigations are when you said the most important thing, which is you do not believe that Trump was a Russian agent, despite the fact that for years, that's what Democrats maintained.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think we shouldn't fall for Hamilton 68. I think we shouldn't have fallen for NewsGuard. I think we shouldn't have fallen for the Steele dossier. I think we shouldn't fall for the Russiagate hoax, J. Cal. Stop falling for all these Russia hoaxes. We shouldn't fall for anything. I agree.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah. I mean, who's going to stop me?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
trying to scalp the remaining tickets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
We're going to see a couple of Calcanis brothers on the sidewalk outside the conference holding a sign. You know, tickets available.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Need one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
She's not thinking from first principles. Are you kidding? She's reading from a teleprompter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
She's a candidate for the presidency of the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I'm trying to have something about substance. Jason, it's a substance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Okay, let me tell you what's really going on here. Okay, tell us all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
The longtime Democratic pundit Roy Tashara just had a piece out called Vince Lombardi Democrats, where he quoted Vince Lombardi saying, winning isn't everything, it's the only thing. And so obviously what's happening now is that Kamala Harris will say whatever she needs in order to win. But the question that voters should be asking, who is this person really?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Because obviously what she's going to do once you give her the keys to the government is going to be different than whatever she's saying right now. And we do have a lot of background on this person. She came up through the San Francisco political machine. She was a product of the progressive movement. Pelosi machine in San Francisco. She then rose to the Senate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
She was voted by GovTrack as the most liberal member of the Senate. And just a few weeks ago, when she first announced her economic proposals, they were all this super far left stuff like the unrealized gains tax and a 44% cap gains rate. So that's where her instincts were. That was what was in the Biden-Harris budget. That was in her campaign platform.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And that was in her economic policy speeches. And then what happened is there was a huge negative reaction to all of that. So now she's changing her talking points. But it's obvious what's going on. She's going to say whatever is necessary to win the election. But you're a fool and kidding yourself if you think you're going to get something really different after the election.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You're going to get a continuation of the Biden, Harris, Elizabeth Warren economic program that we've had for the last four years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
He's never changed his position. You don't seem to understand how that issue works. He was in favor of returning it to the states. He's been completely consistent on that. And I don't know why you keep bringing it back to that always. Whenever Kamala Harris isn't doing well, it's always about abortion for you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
He didn't just say that. It's always been his position. He's always been a moderate on the issue, J. Cal. Yeah. He's against the national abortion ban. He's always been in favor of returning it to the states. I don't even understand how this is like, you're still talking about this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Okay, they're going to have to cross the state line. You're right. That's an issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I'm not brushing it aside. I'm just stating what the truth of the issue is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Hold on a second. If you want to vote on that issue, that's your right. Go for it. All I ask is that you correctly state Trump's position on that issue, which he stated on our own podcast. Yeah, no, and that's the point I'm bringing up. It's up to the states.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Welcome to 48. Welcome to 48. I think you should stop making a fool of yourself on Twitter. It's getting old.
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"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, I mean, my reaction to it was that this is hardly new. I mean, I remember way back in the PayPal days over 20 years ago, we had a rule that We wouldn't hire MBAs. We had a no MBA hiring rule. And the reason was because we figured out pretty early on that MBAs were bringing more of a traditional management toolkit that seemed less applicable at a startup.
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"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Subsequent to that, obviously, Elon has taken a very hands-on approach at his companies that Walter Isaacson described in his book as demon mode. And so that's been described. Ben Horowitz did a very interesting series of blog posts about management. and addressed the topic of micromanagement years ago. And so he's written extensively about it and put a lot of substance behind it.
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"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Ben drew attention to a book by Andy Grove that came out 40 years ago called High Output Management that also addressed this problem in significant detail. And this, to boil it down into a nutshell for you, the way that Grove defines micromanagement
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"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
this problem is he says that the output of a manager is the output of that person's team and whether that manager is the ceo or a team lead or a vp or what have you the way you again measure their output is just look at the output of their team so therefore You ask what's going to maximize the output of that team or that org.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And obviously, if the CEO tries to do everything and make every decision, probably that's not going to result in the maximum output. Conversely, if you delegate everything, I call it the problem of infinite delegation, where CEO delegates to VP, VP delegates to director, director delegates to manager, manager delegates to the summer intern.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And then all the most important work in the company gets delegated all the way down to the newest, most inexperienced people. That's not going to work either. So again, you're going to have to find the right balance. And again, the way that you figure out what the balance is, is to apply Groves' principle of maximizing the output of the team or the organization.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And it just took out a huge amount of middle management and it didn't seem to harm the performance. Performance got better. And again, you can apply growth's principle. Look at what happens to the aggregate output. So this topic has been addressed at length and I think has been understood for decades.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Maybe the only new thing here is a little bit of branding around founder mode versus manager mode. The problem with that branding is I think it's an overly simplistic and Manichaean view of the world where it kind of fits into really all of the PGSAs and the YCs. model, which is founders always right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And everybody else in the ecosystem, especially traditional managers, they're either liars or fakers. And that basically has been the Manichaean model that Paul Graham's been pumping out for decades.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Rain Man, David Sackerson.