David Sacks
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Okay, we are here in Washington, D.C., in front of the White House, having spent the afternoon with our friend David Sachs, our friend Elon Musk, and others. We are here to learn about the debt, the deficit, what's going on in D.C., and we have an incredible interview lined up with Scott Besant, Treasury Secretary of the United States. It was amazing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
He's like, you need to go downstairs now. So we got kicked the fuck out. But it was an incredible experience. Incredible tour. Super great. Yeah. Anyway, we're excited for this interview with Scott Besson. Hope you enjoy it. All right, besties. I think that was another epic discussion. People love the interviews. I could hear him talk for hours. Absolutely. We crushed your questions. Admit it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
People want progression. I mean, I remember reading... There's a... I think Jonathan Haidt had some work on this a long time ago where happiness is measured by your change in net worth or income per year. It doesn't matter what your absolute levels are by all these socioeconomic kind of surveys that they do. That feeling like you're having some progression in life is what folks are looking for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
And I wonder whether solving for that, we created a system, and I'd love to point out your read on this, that we said everyone should own a home. That's the American dream. And in order to do that, people put most of their net worth into a home. 60%, I think, of middle class net worth is tied up in a single asset. And then in order to get them to feel like they're progressing,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
We've created a system of loans and a system of kind of economic and fiscal policy that ultimately drives the value of the home up every year. Now we're kind of in an unsustainable housing bubble. Most people can't even afford to buy a home. What did we get wrong there and how does that affect what the American dream should look like going forward?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
I will never be able to pay down my student loan. I will never be able to afford a home. I can never see my income growing to give me access there. Yeah, and... So is that a dereg solution? Is that the intention?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
We are giving people ground truth data to underwrite your own opinion. What'd you guys think? That was fun. That was great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
The three legs on the stool?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
That's what I was going to ask you. Yeah, just tell me what I was right and wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Sorry, so let me just understand. So deflating government spending is key. But the big challenge has been that we have now accumulated $30-some-odd trillion nearly of debt. And the interest on that debt has started to grow. We now have to pay $1.2 trillion in interest payments per year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
So that starts to consume more of the spending budget that we have at the federal level, which means we can spend less on the rest of the federal government's programs, meaning you have to cut a lot more than you otherwise would have, which is what makes it so difficult and so painful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Is it realistic that you can get Congress to act in the way that Congress needs to act to get to the level that we need to get to, given the high interest payments and the high debt level that we have?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Sorry, this is really important, and I think this is the most critical thing. I'm really glad we got the chance to talk today because I hear so much about the conversation on any one of these topics independent of the others, and there's a relationship between them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
that I think is critical to understand on how this administration is aiming to drive an economic recovery that is not inflationary, is sustainable, and also will allow people to have the American dream in a way that they can't have access to today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
And to create an economic incentive to onshore for some industries and some supply chains?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Right. And sorry, what is the relationship between the tax cuts and the getting to 3%, 3.5% deficit as a percent of GDP?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
So sorry, does tax cuts get made up with tariffs, or does tax cuts get made up with cutting government spending?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
So sorry, government revenue as a percentage GDP can go lower. if you have lower expenses and a faster growing economy. I think that's like really important for folks to understand that relationship. And so in isolation, tax cuts might reduce revenue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
But when done with reduced government spending and deregulation and a reordered international trade model, you theoretically will accelerate economic growth in this country, increase government revenue overall, even with a lower tax rate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
It's crazy. It's quite a gameable system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Oh, it's nuts. And the incentive model is when you have a constituency that you represent as an elected representative that's earning from that spending, they're telling you, if you want to get reelected, make sure my earnings stay and get me more.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
And then every year you've got a set of elected representatives whose primary objective in a democratic system is to go in and get more money for their constituents. How do we solve that fundamental problem? How do you think about that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Where everyone gets a little bit. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Or is rates a way to think about it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
And it's been an amazing afternoon, and we're really looking forward to it. It was amazing. Well, this is the pre, the intro to the video.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
And do you need to work with Congress too to make these changes?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Again, if we do- They're not sure what to believe. I mean, we hear this commentary a lot. There's just a lot of uncertainty. There's a big spectrum of opinions there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
So let me go back. So outside of waste, fraud, and abuse, as it's termed, I want to go back to the question I asked earlier. How much does this administration need Congress to act to get to 3% to 3.5% deficit to GDP? And what's your read on the Congress and how willing and able they are to take the action that's needed here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
You've got Lutnik, you've got Burgum, you've got Elon. I mean, this cabinet is stocked full of experienced operators that can go in and identify where there's an opportunity for saving the taxpayers' money and still getting the results.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Every dollar spent goes into someone's pocket, and that person's going to fight tooth and nail to get that dollar to keep flowing into their pocket. And it's a very, like, there is no winning in Elon's role. Every single time he takes action, there are people that are going to come after him, that are going to come after the administration. And obviously gets recast, reclassified.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
in media as being something different but there's nothing but downside as you make these changes to individual organizations that participate and then it takes a while for the flow of that money to find its way or those individuals to find their way back into the productive private economy that's where i think there's a big gap and a big challenge in the perception of the actions that are going on with the changes right now
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
is everyone sees the cuts, but they don't see the benefits. And that's nine months, 12 months, 15 months down the road. And that's a really hard thing to reconcile for most.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Sure. Totally. We were just talking about this. We were with Elon just now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
But we were talking about this. But then we were going through the numbers on the other firms, and it's just the whole thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
I'm so happy there is transparency and visibility into this. If for nothing else, the administration providing this level of insight and data, I think is so important for taxpayers and individuals in this country to see, to recognize, and importantly, to understand just how much of this grift is going on. It's frightening, and I'm glad that it's being addressed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
This, by the way, is something that I've seen being a lightning rod. Theoretically, every dollar you spend on the IRS, you get $3 back or whatever it is. That's not necessarily true. I just want to be clear that you can still get all your tax revenue at the federal level, but you don't need to waste it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
And notorious for going all in several times in his career.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Let me go back to entitlement. I talked last week on our podcast about Social Security. Social Security has a $2.7 trillion balance, which is just basically a treasury bond that they can't trade out of. Should Social Security have invested in the S&P or invested in equities?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
And why don't we turn Social Security into a sovereign wealth fund and invest it for the benefit of all Americans going forward?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Yeah, but it's still sitting in treasuries on the other side.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
And that's where there's an opportunity not just to drive up returns, but participate in the American economy and give all Americans today the ability to know that they have some participation in the American economy rather than having their retirement funds being sitting as a loan to the federal government for spending, which I think could be a big dramatic change.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
I don't know if they need to be independent, but I think it's a real opportunity for us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Like why put it in a sovereign wealth fund versus pay down the debt? Help kind of do the finance math for us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Anything that beats our current interest rate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Dan Loeb made this comment that the Australian superannuation, they've got 30 managers, and they have as much on their balance sheet today in their fund than Social Security does, about $3 trillion. And they have 7% of our population. No, it's incredible. It's incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Why was this such a miss for America? What happened in the United States was that we took every excess dollar we had And we invested it in the future. We built infrastructure. What happened that kept us out of this model where others were so successful and clearly have now gotten ahead of us and their people have a greater kind of safety net than we do?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
It will be incredible. It was incredible. But how cool is the White House? And here's a bell. Okay. I'm pretty sure, I'm pretty sure the bell.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
The Old Age and Survivors Disability Insurance Fund. That's what it's called, right? Under Social Security.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Yeah, yeah. And nuclear? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
We got to fix the supply chain and the regulatory.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
But it's important because the question is when it becomes one, that's when we know we've fixed the problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
And let me ask you one more question as we kind of get to the end. But what's been the most surprising thing for you in this role since you've been in office?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
I think this is important because I've spoken with folks who trade in macro, and a big part of the role of being a macro investor, a macro trader, is really knowing where central bank action is going to be, really knowing how
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
government bonds are going to move, and spending time with economists, not just central, but around the world, and learning a little bit about how capital is flowing all over the world. Is that kind of the right way to describe that role of being a macro investor, just for folks?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Well, it's a separate plan, but yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
And obviously, energy, I mean, just getting back to affordability, right, energy costs come down. That's the big one. You took the words out of my mouth. Sorry. No, no, no, no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Yeah, good. For all our friends at home who talk a lot about The conversation about climate change and carbon-free, I think one of the things that I always point out to people is the cheapest way of driving energy production in this country is there's a low carbon or carbon-free alternative that's out there that's actually cheaper than standing up new plants. And there's an acceleration.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
I don't know how much this administration thinks about that relationship, but it seems to me like if we can unlock energy production, costs come down and this economy transitions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Yeah. I think cheap energy solves a lot of problems.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
I mean, we can't compete manufacturing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
But we certainly can't compete without energy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
He wants to be personable to everyone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Great. Well, Scott, thank you so much for taking the time. This has been a pleasure. And we really appreciate the insight.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
It's incredible. Running around room to room in the White House.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
It was one of the best days of my life.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
I think this bell is probably pretty important. Can you guys get a shot of this bell? I don't know what it is, but it's really important. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Yeah, I felt it. But I got free soda. They have a soda machine where you can make any Coca-Cola flavor you want in the White House. It was pretty cool. I took some hummus. I wrapped it on Freebird's face and I punched him in the face. It was a cool afternoon. And this is, what is this? The East Wing of the White House. And we took a walk from the West Wing all the way over to the East Wing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Endless stimulus, endless spending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Because purchasing power goes down, inflation went up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
That's really important. I think people don't understand this, that if you had stocks, if you had assets, your assets inflated. But if you didn't, the cost of everything inflated, but you didn't have the ability to purchase because your wages don't go up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Through the portico. And then we snuck in. Well, we didn't sneak in. We walked in. And then we're walking around the East Wing. We went to all of the private rooms. I got great photos. We'll slice them into this video. And then some Secret Service dude comes up and he's like, what are you doing here? This is the residence of the president. You have to get the fuck out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
Great civil issues, societal issues. But sorry, as you guys got into looking at this, and I remember Stan talking about this in the summer of 23, I think it was, or 23, yeah. And what was the point of view on what should have been done at that point in time? And then how much farther did it go? How much longer did it last?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Yeah. Do you own Bitcoin, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Hey everybody, Friedberg here. What you're about to hear is a discussion from our All In Summit, recorded in LA on September 9th. We're going to publish some of the best conversations once a week. If you want to see all the talks, subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash at all in and follow us on X at the all in pod.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Is the motivation... Do you believe the motivation is endless empathy? Or is it as simple as we want new democratic voters? Or is there a kind of not publicly spoken about economic argument about bringing wages down, having economic growth, having new buyers in the economy, that there's some benefit despite the $100 to $600 billion cost?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah, the endless empathy aspect, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
But all structural norms degrade. Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
I just want to ask on a different topic now. Thank you for talking about the border.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Do you like the balance in the podcast? Yeah, I do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Sax? Wait, do you want me to leave the left and go to the right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
JD, let me just ask you one more foreign policy question on China. So there's a balancing act with China, but the rhetoric is that's our enemy. There's going to be a cold war. The structural relationship that the United States has with China is a very kind of codependent relationship. They buy our bonds. I guess they're selling them off now. We buy a lot of product from them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
It allows us to go into a Walmart and get $40 scooters for our kids or $20 scooters for our kids. The technology industry is deeply dependent on a supply chain coming from China. There is a great commercial interdependency with China. They have historically been a very important partner to the United States and our economic prosperity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And I know the argument about hollowing out the middle class and so on because of moving everything offshore to China, but how do we rip that bandaid off and not cause massive problems with inflation? How do we not drive the cost of everything up by tariffing things that are coming in from China? What's the way forward with China? Is it necessarily a deeply kind of divisive Cold War?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Or is there a path here that allows us to maintain a balanced trading relationship and kind of a peaceful transition with China as they continue to build up their kind of capabilities economically and with energy, which I think is one of the biggest drivers for their success?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And less regulation for that energy sector.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
A little extra security. This is your Saks red meat moment. Yes. Okay. Here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
You're like Jake Allen. Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Ladies and gentlemen, Katie Vance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Thank you. Jorge, good to see you. What's up, man? How you doing? Shabazz.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Welcome. Sax is going to introduce you. Welcome to the lion's den. Who's here with us, Sax?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Can we talk about policy for a minute? That'd be great. Okay. I'd love that. I'll just reflect back on your comment about government growth. compared to wage growth, compared to corporate profits. There's only so much capital, it gets sucked up somewhere. There's competing interests that suck it up. The government is a competing interest that sucks up capital, fundamentally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
The government has been successful in sucking up capital. And ultimately, the government has been proven time and again to be the least efficient way to grow the economy of allocating capital allocators or labor. And... Trump has made this commentary that Elon, who's going to be here later today, should come in and help right-size the government. You've now spent a few years as a senator.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
This is my most distressing issue of all the panic attacks I have that Jason teases me about. Government spending, the debt level, and ultimately you reach a tipping point, I believe, in democracies where the government is spending. More people are dependent on the government than are not. And that ultimately leads to a very bad outcome for democracy. That's how I feel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And so based on what you've seen as a senator now for the last few years and based on the commentary that Elon, where would you go in, you know, cut? Where's the most kind of efficiency gaining opportunity that we can kind of execute against without needing to go and negotiate with Congress?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
What's the opportunity ahead for the executive branch to right-size government, to make things more efficient, to hold things accountable, to improve the way that the government is functioning, which I think ultimately leads to better economic growth and opportunity for innovation because capital flows to the right places.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
The $7.3 trillion budget, what do you estimate that impact to be? Well, again, it's... And I'm trying to do that scene in the movie, Dave, where they go in and they just, like, line up. They're like, nope, nope. Or, like, Millay pulled everything off the board.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah. Great chap, Jacob.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
You have to pass legislation to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And how would you like your role as vice president to be cast, differentially from how other vice presidents have operated? What would your role as an individual be, just speaking about?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
That's how you can tell. It's a dead giveaway. Spoiler alert. Dead giveaway.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Right. We came up with a way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
This is the greatest pitch ever. And if you see my cock, you know it's true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah, and it's silence. And I was like, is this thing working? Are we muted?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
That's just the beginning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah. They didn't see that coming. Yeah, it's live. Well, it's live.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah, guardian of, yeah. Censorship? Censorship.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
Let's let John jump in here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think... I think that what's interesting, I mean, you and Jeff, I think arrive at similar conclusions about Ukraine, but different ones on China, right? Because Jeff is an economist and I think sees the world in fundamentally positive some ways based on the potential for trade, economics basically.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
Whereas you see the world as more of a zero sum game based on the balance of power. Why don't you just explain that difference?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
So, Jeff, let me set it up for Jeff here. So, Jeff, you and John, I think, agree that the game on the board is power seeking. I think what John is saying is there are smart ways and dumb ways to pursue power. Containing China is a smart way. What we're doing in Ukraine is a dumb way. Whereas it seems like you're saying that all power seeking behavior is bad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
That's not the game we should be playing. We should somehow opt out of that. Is that kind of where you're going?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
John, what's your thought on that? Do you see any difference between Republicans and Democrats?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
So John, can we contain China, prevent them from becoming a regional hegemon without directly defending Taiwan? I mean, isn't that where the rubber meets the road?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
We only have a minute left, so I want to give it to John. I just want to ask. He had a question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
Sorry, I'm calling an audible. We've got five minutes, so before we leave this topic, John. Your book is called The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. You clearly understand the tragic aspect of how great power rivalry, great power competition can lead to disaster. What Jeff is saying is we're now in the nuclear age and it's going to lead to nuclear war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
So do we have to be on this path or is there a way off of it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
I'm excited for this panel. We're going to talk about foreign policy. We have, I think, two of the most interesting, eminent, renowned thinkers about foreign policy, Professor John Mearsheimer from University of Chicago and Professor Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia. So great to have you guys here today. It's a big world, and there's a lot of things happening, so let's just jump into it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
The big news over the past week was that Dick Cheney endorsed Kamala Harris for president. I think for people who see the world in partisan political terms, this might have been surprising, but I don't think that you guys were that surprised by that. Do you see an underlying logic to this? Jeff, why don't I start with you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
All right, so Doge. Yeah, we should talk about Doge and tariffs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
But sorry, let me just ask one question. How did the tax cut to the extension of the tax cuts?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
So let me ask you on tariffs, having studied it yourself, when there's higher tariffs, people purchase less, things cost more.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
By the way, very pivotal day in the campaign. If you remember, Biden sort of didn't pay as much attention to it. Trump was pretty engaged. Elon was supportive of Trump. So when he actually caught the rocket, The media was almost like frozen waiting for it to fail and it didn't fail and it worked and it was this incredible I was waiting for Elon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
You said that? Of course.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
So he hasn't talked to you ahead of time about who he wants?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
I've heard secondhand stories of this room during the transition that you walk in and everyone's photo is up on the screen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
That's a candidate for a role. And then you guys would debate it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
There was no game theory. A lot of people speculated there was game theory that we'll put a mix of people that will assume some won't make it out of committee and then we'll end up with the ones that we do want. Everyone was the number one choice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
This is just who he is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
Can you explain that to us? Sorry, before we get there, I want to ask one last question on the cuts. Can we speak... Do we need to speak in a more empathetic way? Because that trillion dollars of spending flows into someone's pocket. Some percentage of that pays people a salary and they live on that income. And I think a lot of... No, no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
Okay, I think this is important for you to highlight because a lot of people are reacting to Elon and Doge and the budget cuts saying, you're destroying jobs. You're taking money away from people that need their jobs. Why are you... Rich people are taking away jobs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
Well, let me give you the economist's counter, and then you can respond to it, which is tariffs... on imports in the United States will ultimately pass to the consumer, higher prices, inflationary. So the things that our consumers and our citizens are buying gets more expensive and as a result, they buy less and it's recessionary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
It shrinks the economy, it shrinks spending, it shrinks consumption. Can you kind of respond to the, you know, that's the typical economist refrain on this, independent and maybe they're isolating the imbalance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
Just address the pricing inflation that arises from tariffs. Talk to the average person who says the cost of a toy at Walmart just went up by 50%. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
And you can offset that with a reduction in income tax.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
By the way, I want to just speak as an entrepreneur. I see the economic incentive. When I see the price for certain things go higher because you have to import and pay a tariff, I'm like, why don't we make that here? We should be doing that. And there's going to be a lot of that kind of entrepreneurial opportunity that will arise from making things. And this is just how the markets work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
And by the way, those jobs are better paying and they're more productive than the government fund is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
Because you were the finance chair for the campaign.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
I got a poly market I created on how many of you guys are going to sell this year. Cool. Yeah, curious to see how many. That's fantastic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
Yeah, what are the terms on it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
And they pay 5 million. And how many people do you think there are that could qualify in the world?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
In case you were wondering. 37 million. That's a lot more than ChatGPT told me. Who are capable of buying. Who are capable of buying it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
Everybody else is like... Howard, you have to change how government operates if you're going to scale that. You can't go negotiate every contract out there for every department.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
That, you know, asymmetric- I would bet this happens during this administration. He bets post.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
Just for people that don't understand, give me some stock. Give me a little bit of your stock.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
I think that was another epic discussion. People love the interviews. I could hear him talk for hours. Absolutely. We crushed your questions. Admit it. We are giving people ground truth data to underwrite your own opinion. What do you guys think? That was fun. That was great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
You kept the friendship going. as you're rebuilding.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
Honestly, this has been one of my favorite conversations we've had. Highlights, no?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
I mean, not just in DC, not just in DC, but like, yeah. We'll have dinner. No, we have dinner. No, listen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
By the way, I will say, I'll echo the point you made earlier. I think every member of this cabinet is an incredible storyteller. I mean, you're, like, on another level. But, like, the storytelling, I think, is what's so powerful about this cabinet and this administration. And I think it's going to take some time to get the message out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
But man, are there incredible ambassadors to do so with the president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
Thank you, Howard. Thanks, Howard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
So he's already had his first term.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
You didn't support or get involved?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In in DC!
Because our friend, Sax, we were talking at dinner last night. He seems to love it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
You got no M&A happening right now in tech. The real estate guys, they can't get loans because the interest rates are through the roof and there's a credit crunch. So I think one of the common themes we just heard across that dinner was that it was just so hard to do business right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Can I shift the conversation to foreign policy just for a minute, just to make sure we get time to talk about foreign policy? Is that okay with you guys? Yes. Mr. President, I've really appreciated your comments saying that you want to bring a peace deal to the war in Ukraine so that people stop dying. And I wholeheartedly agree with that sentiment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
But I've seen that Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, is talking about actually putting NATO troops or French troops in Ukraine as potentially a next step. And that could be a tripwire for more NATO troops coming in. Can you guarantee that no matter what, you're not going to put American boots on the ground in Ukraine? Is that something you can say definitively?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I heard you have a pretty nice house, too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
And I guess maybe a good place to start would just be, you know, what's the number one thing or maybe the top three things that you would do to kind of get things moving again? you know, if you're reelected?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Yeah, the average age of their soldier is like 43 now. So they're literally running out of people. To make a peace deal there, would you be willing to take NATO expansion off the table if that's what it took to get the Russians and the Ukrainians to make a deal? Would you be willing?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I 100% agree. And, you know, it turns out that the month before the Russians invaded, Blinken told Lavrov that the administration was not only going to bring Ukraine into NATO, but that they thought it was okay for the United States to put nuclear weapons in Ukraine. So no wonder the Russians hit the roof. I mean, you talk about provocation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
He doesn't like to negotiate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
It's only worth $18 million, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Mr. President, I know you're running out of time here. So we haven't had a chance for you to speak to the border situation yet. So I want to give you a chance to address that because that's always been really one of your main issues since always, since 2016. You wanted to build a wall. The Democrats did everything they could to thwart that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
You built the wall, but then Biden left a bunch of holes in it and then sold off the parts for scrap metal. And now we've had the problem and repealed your executive order. So I want to give you a chance to speak to that. One piece I want to just add in as a follow-up question is a lot of tech CEOs say, if we fix the border, can we get more H-1Bs for tech workers?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Can you address that as well as what's going on at the border?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I never understood why the wall was so controversial. You know, every country needs to have a border and a wall is a really good way to enforce a border. I never understood why they were so animated about stopping you from building the wall after you ran on that issue in 2016. They held you up for years with litigation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
And then, like you said, they wouldn't just finish the little pieces of it and they left big holes in it. And I think you're right. The only conclusion is they want an open border. I mean, how else do you explain it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
That's fantastic. Yeah, that's great. Well, I think we all wholeheartedly agree with that. Being in the tech industry, we understand the importance of that. They're telling us that you have to go to dinner, Mr. President. So thank you so much for spending so much time with us. We really appreciate it. It's been great having this conversation with you. I'm sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
All right. I think that's smart. Well, your team is telling us that they need you to go to a dinner, Mr. President. Obviously, we could keep going for hours and hours, but it's been great to have you. It's been great to have you for the last hour here. And it's been great getting to know you with the dinner that we did. And we hope that you'll come back on our show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Podcasts are getting bigger and bigger. So hopefully in your second term, you'll come on here and talk to us again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I have some blockers. He crushed your questions. No, he crushed your questions. Admit it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
He was very unequivocal about that, really clear that he would not do a national ban, really clear that the states would decide. And furthermore, he understood that the states are deciding. There's been a bunch of referenda at the state level. Yes. And they are generally coming out on the pro-choice side.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
And he indicated that he understood that some of the votes are not turning out the way the people may have thought.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
He's going to respect democracy on that issue. So I think he nailed that question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
was palatable and you know there's a lot of things i agree with them on and the january 6th stop we didn't get to so apologies to the audience on that i know a lot of people have feelings about it but you know you can only get so much from 50 minutes of interview i think you did a great job a whole town hall on that issue i mean quite frankly i felt like we dealt with a lot of substance here so but chamath i agree with you he was really clear on ukraine he went further than he has in the past in the past he said that he'll get a peace deal very quickly and then he wants the people to stop dying but in this interview he went further he said that if
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
France or other European countries send in troops, the US definitely will not participate in that. We are not going to send American boots on the ground. The Biden administration, I don't think, has said that definitively the way that President Trump said it. Moreover, he understood that a major cause of the war was the desire to bring Ukraine into NATO. And I've never heard
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I've never heard anyone in the administration say that. And he went further and said they keep saying these provocative things about, you know, even now they keep repeating that Ukraine's going to be part of NATO. So he understood he understood the provocation there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
You know, I had a couple of reactions to that. So number one is I thought it was interesting how he reacted to the question about Larry Summers because he knows Larry Summers and he actually said several very complimentary things towards him. So you may not agree with him on everything, but he said that Larry had gotten a bunch of things right. And he's an interesting guy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
And Larry did get the inflation call right. Remember, at the very beginning of the Biden administration. So it was interesting. I thought that President Trump handled that question very tactfully. I think it's not like he wasn't looking to attack anyone or anything like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Yeah, just on the second piece on the deficit, you know, Jake, how you asked a pretty tough question there, where you basically said, look, your debt has grown as much under your first term as it has under Biden. Remember that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
But I think he had a pretty good answer, which was that look, at the first year of COVID, we were dealing with you know, a potential depression. I don't know if you mentioned that the economy, GDP was down 30%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
So he basically explained that we had to do that. But then after that, we shouldn't have kept going. And I do think that Trump is just not as big a spender as Biden. I mean, look, Biden's been in Washington for 50 years. He thinks government's the answer for everything. He loves spending money. And he spent trillions on COVID even after we didn't need to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
So I get the sense that Trump was a reluctant spender. I'm not saying he didn't spend. Whereas Biden, I think, is an eager spender. Yeah, I disagree.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I think if Trump had the power by himself to rein in spending, I think he would. I think the issue is that the president by himself can't do that much.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
No, I think what he said was they didn't want the information out. Yeah, we should be clear about that because it could be quoted out of context.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
You don't want to spend the money in China, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Well, I thought that his response on that was similar to a lot of his responses, which is he did not take the edgy position that he was sort of being teed up to take. I mean, kind of like same thing with like the Larry Summers thing. You know, he had mild criticism, I thought, for Fauci, but he didn't go scorched earth. at all on Fauci there. And I didn't trust him. He said, yeah, absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Nobody, nobody trusts Fauci. You asked him whether Fauci should be prosecuted. He did not take the bait on that. That's my point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
He's a counterpuncher. I don't think he hits people unless they hit him first. I mean that's his pattern. But look, I agree with Chamath here that my overall take on this – and look, my position is clear because I wrote – A long post on X endorsing Trump a couple weeks ago. But everything I heard here in this interview is consistent with the reasons why I stated I want to support him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
He clearly favors a pro-growth agenda. He wants to keep taxes low. and reasonable. He wants to reduce regulations. He wanted to increase the number of H-1Bs, get the dream team over here for tech while sealing the border, while cutting down on crime in blue cities. He talked about how crime was out of control. He wants to negotiate peace deals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
He, I think, understands very well why we have this war going on in Europe. Overall, I heard a lot of reassuring things and I didn't hear anything that I would put in the category of a grievance or a desire for revenge. You know, the media is trying to portray him as like seeking vengeance or something like that. Well, that's because he says he is didn't get didn't get that over and over again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Maybe the same clip played over and over again on CNN.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Well, I mean, I think Chamath is right that with respect to the Middle East, And I think his position isn't perfectly clear because it's not only about Iran in the Middle East, right? But the truth of the matter is politically, I don't know that he could say more. And, you know, I think that's just a very, very tough issue where you're bound to alienate and polarize one side or the other.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
And so I think he's sort of definitely walking a tightrope there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
But maybe he's right. You know, like when I hear Trump talk, what I hear is someone who's a dealmaker. He was a dealmaker in business. Now he's a dealmaker politically. He's willing to have conversations with anybody. There was even a moment when he's talking about Iran where he said maybe he could have worked out a deal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
But in any event, he's somebody who I think is willing to negotiate, which I think is a positive thing because when's the last time Biden negotiated anything? He doesn't seem interested at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Yeah, that was a good example, I think. Energy, he pointed to the EPA. The right things are on his radar screen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Thanks so much for sitting down with us, Mr. President. The All In Pod is basically the four of us having conversations. It's kind of a spectrum of different views. We got sort of like a little bit of some Fox News and then some MSDNC at the same time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
And the tracks are in the middle of nowhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Of these two men, Trump or Biden, which one do you think is going to be more skeptical of big government spending and which one is going to be more interested in being conducive to the private sector solving problems? I mean, to me, there's no comparison. Well, which one do you think? Obviously, Trump is – all of his instincts are let's empower the private sector. Let's cut regulations.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Let's make taxes reasonable. Let's get the smartest people in the country. Let's have peace deals. Let's have growth. I believe –
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Maybe it's a psychological problem that a lot of people have. It doesn't mean we should have a worse president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
We invited Biden on here too, and we're waiting breathlessly for him to accept the invitation. You got to give Trump credit for coming on the show, like he said, and took all questions. So you got to give Trump a lot of credit for that. But Freeberg, to your point about the TDS for a second, Look, when Biden ran in 2020, he promised a return to normalcy. That was basically his sales pitch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
We had just gone through COVID. There were a lot of people who had TDS or were tilted by Trump. And what Biden said is we're going to have normalcy. What actually happened? Well... I think Biden began this incredibly partisan and vindictive program of lawfare, of trying to prosecute not just Trump, but a lot of other people. We had the border basically opened up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
I mean, Biden repealed all those executive orders on day one and did create those holes in the wall. There was absolutely no reason for that. We had this war in Ukraine that was easily avoidable if they just said the right things back in 2021. And I mean, I could go on. I mean, on On the issue of tech, like we talked about, everyone feels frozen right now. Crypto can't get a regulatory framework.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
No one can do M&A. So have we gotten the normalcy that we were promised? I don't think so. And on the other hand, what I heard from Trump in this interview was like he was sort of softened. He did not go scorched earth, even when he invited him to. He did not... Say, I will agree. I will agree with you on that. He had nice words to say about Larry Summers. Yes, he was.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
You know, I thought this was a very moderate sounding Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
We'll let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
Yeah, absolutely. Anyway, Chamath and I, we had a great time at the fundraiser that we did a couple weeks ago. I think it turned out great. And I heard the Winklevoss brothers are actually announcing that they're donating a million dollars each in Bitcoin to you tomorrow. So I think that's a great result to come out of it as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with President Trump
You know, and I think maybe this is a good place to start in our conversation is, you know, one of the things I think we heard a lot at that dinner was just the difficulty that people in business were having under this Biden administration. You got the crypto guys who just want a framework. They just want... the government to tell them how to operate and they can't get that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
All right, everybody, welcome back. It's hot swap summer here at the all in podcast, episode 186 of the world's number one podcast, calling in from the home office in Italy, Chamath Palihapitiya. How are you doing, sir?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Or it could be like a Biden moment circling the dead. Oh, God, that's too dark.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I think the donor class doesn't want to lose.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
He's not fit to serve on his term.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
First female president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
We are? We're in the war or we're providing weapons?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let's get Chamath in for the final word here. Chamath, your thoughts on what's going to happen? Make your prediction between now and September. What do you think's the mid game here before we get to the end game?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I honestly don't know, but I think that we're in a precarious place where things are going to get worse. Biden actually approved private contractors now going into Ukraine and starting to fight. Americans will be on the battlefield as of, I think this was just a few days ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
For folks who are interested in meeting the other lunatics who listen to this pod, if you have no money and no budget, you can come to one of the 50 meetups that are currently happening around the world next week on Thursday, July 11, go to all in podcast.co slash meetups all in podcast.co slash meetups, you can host or you can join them. It's for $0.00.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
If you remember the movie Wag the Dog, I think that it starts to create all these weird scenarios where people will want to create major distractions to try to keep the evidence and the attention away from this core issue that after the debate, everybody is focused on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think the reality is that if you were accused, if any of you were accused of being mentally incapacitated, what you would probably do is go on every single talk show, go on every single news show, go on every single podcast. Press conference.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You would just do so much public-facing work so as to completely dispel this idea so that you could firmly say it was a cold, although now this week it's jet lag, it was jet lag, whatever. Debate prep. the time of day, whatever it was, you'd be able to just completely take the wind out of the sails.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think we're still getting only a controlled dribble of information and access to the President of the United States. So he's going to be on Stephanopoulos, he's going to show up for a NATO meeting. And so you're only seeing dribs and drabs of somebody who now a lot of people think is not in a position not just to run, but let alone run the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You said last week, Democratic Party will have a meaningful reset.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Still thinking that, Shaman? The issue that the Democrats will have to face is the person that they probably want to run is someone different than Kamala Harris. And the problem that they're going to have to confront is there's a part of it, which is fundraising. And I do think that David's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
There was an article in the FT where one of the op-ed writers said they're in this sort of identity politics trap in sorts because they will have to run her no matter what. And even if somebody did show up with the financial wherewithal, and I think Freebrook actually brings up a really interesting thought experiment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
If there was somebody that could take the democratic mantle, who could completely self-fund their campaign, But he happened to be just a white man. What would the Democrats do relative to Kamala Harris? And I think that they would be in knots around what to do. Because of the identity politics issue. I think they have made it an important issue, this idea of inclusiveness as they've defined it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Got it. So it sets up for, I think, a very complicated summer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The other thing you have to keep in mind is how the electoral college works and how the ballot system works is that you don't have infinite time. You have to get all of this wrapped up and cinched up by the middle of August at the latest. And so we're very much on like a four or six week shot clock.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I don't think the Democrats are doing what they need to do in order to completely take the wind out of the sails of this narrative that Biden is not prepared or capable. And the only way that you can do that is by having him appear 24 by seven in real time in front of hundreds of millions of people as often as possible. And they're just not doing it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And so since they're not doing it, they have ample time to do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
He's, yeah, he's obviously- And by the way, the other problem that it creates is that you're starting to see some of these fissures inside of the team. There was a really charged article from Axios that dropped which basically said that there are three people that have cordoned off access to the president. It named Jill Biden, Ann Tomasini, and some other person.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And my initial thought when I read this was, other than Jill Biden, who's a recognizable person, I had no idea who these other two people were. And I thought that's really precise for somebody like that who has inside access to all of these sort of insiders to put that article up. So I think you're starting to see the sort of leaks and the fissures.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And then that's sort of this next phase that will make things a little bit ugly and contorted.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let me ask one question here because we got to move on to the Supreme Court stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
sacks two poor question one is there a chance that he has had a diagnosis already and they're covering that up and two if they covered up something like that what is the ramification of it because it's clear to everybody he's in cognitive decline it's clear it's been a couple of years of cognitive decline no no that was asked of kjp in a press conference yesterday she was very explicit no and the reason no that she doesn't know she doesn't know
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Now, if you're doing well, you got a little extra chatter and you want to get together at the all-in summit, that's in September. We held back 400 tickets, according to Friedberg, who is running the summit now. He's released 100 this week, so get your applications in. And if you are trying to score a ticket or a speaking gig, just don't email me. Email Friedberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
No, no, no. The answer was much more explicit. Has he been diagnosed? And she said no. And the reason she said no is because that is very credible for her to say because he hasn't taken the tests.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Okay, so that's your theory.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Did you guys see this clip, by the way? There's a clip on Twitter where somebody put together a clip on X, six minutes of 100 sort of spokespeople and proxies. And they all had the same thing to say about President Biden, which is he is sharp as a tack. Sharp as a tack. Sharp as a tack. Which ended up attacking the round part.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
What was so funny to me is I thought to myself, if I asked 100 people on the street, What do you think of Elon Musk? You'd have 100 different statements. There'd be a general theme, but you would not have even 50 people repeat the exact same words. They're talking points, obviously. And so you have this funny situation where 100 different people were basically saying the exact same talking point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So it's not even a point of view. It was just something that they were told to say by somebody else. And that, to your point, sacks is the real issue, which is that you don't really have an honest media here. And so there is no check and balance on power right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Well, the contrast and compare I want to make is everybody has a point of view about Donald Trump. And I was thinking about this. The reason why everybody has a point of view about Donald Trump is everything that has happened in his life is completely transparently documented. There really is nothing hidden at this point. And so you have a point of view because you've been given all of the stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And there's endless amounts of new stuff that come out about the old stuff. And so you know. And that's what's so interesting. You have the ability to come to your own decision and it's not packaged through these filters. Yet with President Biden, I think it's so constrained and controlled.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Friedberg, any updates on the content? People want to know what's on the docket.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I think you have to understand and appreciate that cognitive decline, let's assume that he isn't for the sake of the United States. But if he is in it, it only gets worse from here. And it compounds and compounds and compounds. That is what happens. And so not only do you have to wonder what the next five months are like, what does it look like in 18 and 24 and 36 months?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
That is a really important issue here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Democracy working would be to do the speed run. I have a question. What would you do with the money? Would you just not spend it then? and just save it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Listen to Sachs. There's your political counsel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Give us two names. Give us two names.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Give us a second name. Bob Iger, yeah, it's a great one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Use the Republican playbook. Brilliant, Freeberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Well, listen, it's... I'm just trying to keep the show fresh. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Here we go. Next topic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Freeberg gets the final word.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I'm giving Freeberg the final word. He had the best take. I'm giving Freeberg the final word. Oh, you're pulling your McNeil era. Absolutely. Yeah. Okay. Here we go. There were seven rulings in a bunch of SCOTUS activity over the last week. But these are really important consequential decisions. We are going to talk about three of them. And I'm going to try to get through these quickly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Obviously, you could talk about these for hours and people will be doing case studies on them for a long time. But let me try to do this quickly so we can get everybody's take on them. The first one I want to talk about is NetChoice. This is the content moderation cases that you may have heard of. There were two very controversial laws passed in Florida and Texas in 2021 in the wake of January 6th.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Look at you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The Florida law, if you weren't aware of it, and I don't suspect most people are, would cover platforms with over 100 million monthly active users or 100 million in annual revenue. In other words, they're targeting X, YouTube, Facebook, Meta, those kind of sites. And they would require those platforms to notify users if their posts are removed or altered.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And the platforms would have to make general disclosures about their operations and policies. And the Texas law was very similar, platforms over 50 million monthly active users, and it would require them to notify users whose posts were removed and provide an explanation of why, all that kind of stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Both of these laws were challenged in court in 2021, just to give you an idea like why I think the conservatives were upset about this. Obviously, Trump being suspended indefinitely on Twitter, Facebook and other platforms or the labeling of content like we've seen on our own channel and YouTube. Netchoice is a tech industry group includes Facebook and YouTube and the parent companies of those.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And they sued to block these two laws. Justice Kagan, a liberal, wrote the unanimous decision. Obviously, no dissensions here. And the majority held the editorial judgment and the curation of other people's speech is a unique, expressive product of its own, which entitles it to First Amendment protection.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So just to give you an example, if you wanted to create a social network where you can't be anonymous like LinkedIn, you can do that. If you want to do something like Twitter X and have anonymous accounts, you can do that as well. If you want to create a social network with adult content, you can do it. or like Zuck is doing on threats. Interestingly, they are downplaying political content.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Look at you. But it's only been two days that I'm working. I mean, I'm not that relaxed yet, but this place does put you in the right mood, I got to say.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Obviously, other platforms amplify political content. So let me and so the end of all this in terms of how the court handled it is they offered some guidance and sent the cases back to the lower courts to clarify a bunch of stuff. Just to keep this brief. Shamath, what are your thoughts on this? Obviously, some of the ideas here
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
like letting users know why they were banned or why content was taken down. I think the overwhelming majority of users would like to have that. But is this the government's role?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I'm not enough of a legal scholar to know the details of this case, except to say that when the entire court goes in one direction, it's probably because this never should have been brought to the court in the first place. And they're giving a very clear message. It wasn't even ideologically strained to figure out what the right answer should be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So... Sacks, obviously, your chosen party was the one who brought this. You have concerns about the platforms doing this. But do you have equal concerns about the government then, I guess, being the ones who have to enforce these? Is this a good ruling?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You're doing some bird of a feather dinners, I understand this year, some new concept. Can you explain that to me?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, that's a key issue. Freeberg, your thoughts?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, so I think that's well said. And I was in the same sort of camp as you, Freiburg, which is like a battle of snowflakes here. Like, the liberals obviously were canceling people on these platforms. And now like the bag of folks want to come in and have the government regulated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Everybody comes to the parties, but that first night.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
If you want to compete here, just create a new product or service in the market, you're on the board of rumble sacks, like they're doing really well. And if you squeeze too tight, and your platform doesn't work, it's the marketplace should, you know, figure out who the winners are. And, you know,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
It's not a situation where you want the government getting in there because then they're going to go to a newspaper and there's so much precedent here. I actually read some of these rulings, which is really interesting. They're written phenomenally well. I will put in the show notes the actual links to the PDFs of these decisions. They're well worth reading.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And in this case, they brought up a bunch of the previous law was fascinating, like people wanted to force a newspaper to allow you know, one candidate to reply and give him space. They're like, No, you can't do that. It's their newspaper, they decide what they publish.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Another person wanted to have a corporate newsletter be forced to give information about the other sides, you just don't get to do that. I'll just say one more thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So the dinners will be 200 people or something like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I agree with you. The platforms have too much power. What is your proposed solution? You obviously don't want to have the government in there like running a newsroom or running Twitter X because you yourself are saying, hey, the government's too involved in X and these platforms and doing this jawboning. So obviously having them more involved is bad, right? You're against them being involved.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think we're totally missing the bigger picture. There's like a lot of fear mongering that I think has happened with respect to the Supreme Court and that it's all of a sudden become some super ideological, super rigid, super activist place. Yeah. And I think it's in fact much of the opposite and the data supports that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And then the bigger parties will be everybody, 1800 people. So where do people apply for this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And so I think it's important for people to know that what's actually happening is that many of these decisions are very much split along non-ideological lines. And I think that that's an important thing. So I just like, I'm pulling this up and I just wanna read some of these things to you. U.S.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
versus Rahimi, which is a federal law that prohibits people subjected to domestic violence, restraining orders from having a firearm. That was an eight to one decision where all but Thomas supported that. Makes a lot of sense, you would think. Racial gerrymandering, that was more ideological where it was a conservative bloc versus Sotomayor, Brown, and Kagan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Trump v. Anderson, which is Trump getting back on the Colorado ballot, 9-0. FDA versus the Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine, which was access to the abortion pill, 9-0 maintaining access. Moyle versus US, which is whether Idaho's strict abortion law conflicts with the federal law, non-ideological, where it was Gorsuch, Alito, Thomas, and Katanji Brown Jackson who dissented. So it goes on and on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Okay. There you go, folks. And you can come to the free events. You can come there. All right. Just usually when we do the docket, I pursue a mullet docket. I do the business first and the party in the back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I think what's so interesting about all of this is that I had thought That this was not like what it was. What I thought what had happened is Trump struck the Supreme Court. All of a sudden, we are ripping all these laws apart, this longstanding sort of doctrine of what has passed. But yet, I think what's actually happening is people are pretty thoughtfully
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
pushing the responsibility to the states. And I think that the court's decisions are relatively unpredictable in the sense that it's not just a conservative block versus a liberal block. I think that's the real story. And when you unpack a bunch of these decisions in that context, that's what's so interesting to me is like, these are our
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
pretty nuanced decisions that get at the heart of a lot of key important issues happening across non-ideological lines. Jan 6th won. Katonji Brown-Jackson was the Biden appointee that basically supported this thing that may throw out 200 plus convictions for Jan 6th. And Amy Coney Barrett was on the other side. This is an unpredictable Supreme Court. I think they think for themselves.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
They seem to be independent. And I think they are coming to their own conclusions. That's the only thing to take away from the distribution of the votes. That should make people feel a little bit better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So I think this next ruling is the most important one. And I think it will be the most important one that we've seen with this new court that has three of the nine justices placed by Trump, to your point, Shamath. And this one is Seisman. The Looper versus Raimondo decision overturned Chevron. Okay, so this one takes a little explaining.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The court overruled a landmark 1984 decision in the Chevron case from 40 years ago. For context, the original ruling created the Chevron Doctrine, where the government and federal courts generally defer to the stances of federal agencies unless Congress has written specific laws on an issue. The 1984 ruling upheld the EPA's interpretation of the Clean Air Act, It's very influential.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
This has been cited by federal courts over 18,000 times in 40 years. It was overruled in another six to three decision where the justices voted along party lines from off. Basically, this shifts power back to federal judges and courts instead of administrative agencies staffed by experts, academics, all that kind of stuff. In the majority opinion, Roberts, conservative, obviously,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
said the Chevron doctrine violates the Administrative Procedures Act of federal law that directs the courts to review actions taken by federal agencies. He also pointed out that the courts are regularly expected to deal with technical questions, so this should not be considered beyond their ability to scope. Kagan, a liberal, wrote a critical dissent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I know that. I know that. You've been anti-Mullet from the beginning. You want this to be a political show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
She said the agency staff with scientists and experts are more likely to have the expertise to make these decisions rather than the judges. She also pointed out that the system had been functioning for 40 years, and this ruling will create a massive, quote, jolt to the legal system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Chamath, get in there. Do you remember when President Biden tried to pass the budget two years ago, and he was one vote short, and Joe Manchin ended up putting it over the top, but he negotiated what was a redo of a bunch of regulation? Yeah. And he was promised that there would be this regulatory overhaul that happened. And that was sort of why he had decided to vote for that budget bill.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
It ended up not happening. So the reason why I think he had saw that and he discussed this is that there are so many businesses that now suffer from the regulations of these agencies. Because when the agency enacted that regulation, it was just a different time and place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And there was no clean way to go back to an independent body and say, I understand what your intention was in 1985 when you wrote that regulation. But in 2024, things have changed. Can we reconsider? And basically what the courts have done now will allow companies who believe that regulations are either overwrought or misguided,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
for today's market landscape, bring it to an independent judiciary and have them decide. And I think that that's a very reasonable check and balance. And I think that's, that makes a lot of sense. Folks can pass laws. And if folks believe that those laws do you undo harm, now you have a mechanism to go and actually explain your case to somebody independent who can then make a judgment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
All right. Sax, I'm sure that it's been an uneventful week for you. How are you doing in the great state of California from our headquarters at the All-In Tower in San Francisco? How's the All-In Tower doing?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think that that's a good check and balance. Freeberg, I know this was the one you most wanted to talk about. What's your take on this end of the age of experts and throwing things back to the court? What will be the practical ramifications of this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So to recap, it could get a little messy, but it's a better, healthier system because this system has become super bloated over 40 years. That was my take on it as well. Sax, what's your take on this? This feels like a huge win to me. What do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah. Chamath, any final thoughts here as we move on to the next one?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Seems like the Supreme Court is doing a great job. I agree. All nine of them. They really seem to be doing a tremendous job. I give them a lot of credit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
It's not a conservative court. This is what I'm saying. Like these are words that are planted by people that want you to believe their version of the lie. So there are a lot of originalists on the court. And what the originalist doctrine says, and Sax, you can correct me, is I read the Constitution with faith and fidelity, and I just see what it says. Not I interpret it, not I fill in the words.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I just, what it says is what we're allowed. And I think that there's some, there's a really good version of America in that view of the world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Whatever. I mean, the point is, last week was, I think, the most crazy week in the history of politics, and it's only going to get crazier. So let's start off with Hotswap Summer. You heard it here first, or maybe not. Hotswap Summer continues. You know, previously, historically, if you wanted to understand who's winning an election, you'd look at the polls. Not perfect, obviously.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Well, you know, I think what here and here's an image from Axios showing, you know, six Republican nominated and three Democrat nominated. I think to give the counter argument, you know, Roe v. Wade being overturned was something the majority of the country didn't want. These three people were added for that explicit purpose by Trump. People have trauma pain over that reasonably, I think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And then the truth is, though, if they are, you know, just one standard deviation here, as you can see in this Axios chart, which is based on some data I don't trust this chart.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think this chart is worthless, Jason. I think you don't want to look at the actual articles. No, but I'm saying, look at the actual arguments and how they vote. If you look at it... My point is, this is meaningless. A child could have drawn this. It means nothing. No, no, a child didn't draw it, Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
This was...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
How do you know?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Because I'm reading the source of the data. This is based on something called the Martin Quinn score. An analysis by political scientist Andrew Martin and Kevin Quinn. Notice the Martin Quinn score places judges on an ideological spectrum. A lower score indicates a more liberal justice, where a higher score indicates a more conservative justice. And then they went through all of their...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
decisions you're saying a subjective classifier a subjective classifier is created by these two random people and you're now regurgitating the score like it means something no i think it's an interesting way it's an interesting chart to discuss to understand a little bit of their meanings what i would encourage anybody to do is to look at the actual substance of the decisions and the votes and what you will see is that people are not as easily predictable as that chart would show and i think that's what's important
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Okay. I think that chart supports exactly what you just said, Sax. Right? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Okay, quick hit here. This is an important story for you, Chamath. SCOTUS also agreed to hear a case on the limits of online porn in its next term, which starts in October.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Some of these polls still call landlines, yada, yada. But then people built models, obviously 538, all this kind of stuff. But it seems that this year and this election cycle, people are really focused on prediction markets, aka betting markets. And we're looking at them in real time. And obviously, people have skin in the game.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The law in question is passed. Will it impact incognito mode? Because if it is, then... You're in trouble. I think there's a... Did you flee to Italy, or are you... Could you imagine if they banned incognito mode?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I'm pretty sure Texas is going to ban incognito mode. Yeah, exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Texas and Florida. I think a couple of these sites because of the threat of, you know, this, these laws of age gating, they've just decided to wholesale leave certain states by IP address. Therefore, the sale of VPNs in Texas went up because when you went to certain porn sites, I said, Hey, because of Texas is proposing these laws, we're not going to allow you to visit this website.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Nick, do the NBC thing. The more you know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The more you know. Okay. SCO disagreed to hear a case on the limits of online porn in its next term, which starts in October. The law in question was passed by Texas legislature in 2023. It requires porn sites to verify the age of their users and restrict access for minors. It seems reasonable. Fifth Circuit Court in New Orleans upheld the law sending it to the Supreme Court.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
If upheld, users would have to submit personal info that verifies they're over 18 to watch porn. The law is opposed by the ACLU and the Free Speech Coalition, which is a trade group representing adult entertainers and companies. They argue it places an undue burden on adults wishing to access constantly protected free expression.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Oh, speaking of porn and its related businesses... The Rick's Cabaret recession index is back on. Did you guys see this? It was published on Twitter. So Rick's Cabaret is a collection of public strip clubs. And then that includes sports. And what's interesting about the Rick's Cabaret stock price is that it has presaged the last two recessions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And whenever the stock dives, people have said it actually predicts an upcoming recession and the stock just declines.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
you know puked up like 25 or 30 percent in the last week oh boy there it is so people do not have the cheddar to go to the cabaret and go splashy cashing i got it it's called it's called rick's cabaret but the strip club index says recessions is on the off i prefer cabaret it's more charming
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
But you got to think that that showed up in the data at least a year or two years ago, no? Because how long has OnlyFans been around? A long time, I'm guessing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Well, but I think it peaked during COVID because, you know, you couldn't go to a cabaret if you wanted to take in a cabaret show. and have a bottle of champagne at a cabaret show, you can do it. So the thesis of our friend is the top flight entertainers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So I'm interested in the panel's take on the sharps on these platforms. And if you think that they're more accurate than, say, some of these polls or the aggregators of polls, but Kamala Harris is now the favorite to be the Democratic nominee, according to one of them. So just let that soak in. In the last 24 hours, VP Harris's chances of being the Democratic nominee have gone from 18% to 50%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Cabaret, cabaret and show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Shout out to... We'll call it the beep theory, yeah. The beep theory. So the elite cabaret artists can make more money on OnlyFans, they'll go there, and then that leaves the less refined artists
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
No, I'm just trying to get into cabinet position. So anyway.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
That's the paper company where they work. Apparently we've had a huge victory for Trump in the immunity case. Trump sued, in this case, based on special counsel Jack Smith's prosecution of Trump for alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election and his role in January 6th.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
If you don't remember that case, since there's so many cases against Trump, this was based on Trump pressuring Mike Pence to not certify the election, his phone call to get the $11,780 Votes that were missing in Georgia or Giuliani and the WAC PAC trying to fake electorates to overturn the election. Trump argued that he should be immune from prosecution for acts committed while he was president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Sigourney ruled 6-3 along party lines that former presidents can't face prosecution for actions that related to core powers of their office.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Official, official, official.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Core powers of their office and that all official acts receive at least the broad presumption of immunity. Here's the quote. Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of presidential power entitles former president to absolute immunity for criminal prosecution for actions within his jurisdiction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority, and he is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no immunity for unofficial acts that would be outside the duty of the president's. Chief Justice Roberts emphasized that decision, that the decision doesn't necessarily mean presidents are above the law.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
In her dissenting opinion, Justice Sotomayor wrote that under the new ruling, criminal law can't be applied to presidents even if they misuse their office for personal gain. She wrote that if the president orders the Navy SEAL Team 6 to assassinate a political rival, he is now insulated from criminal prosecution. Another quote, the president is now a king above the law.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
She closed with this line, with fear for our democracy, I dissent. Notably, this breaks the tradition of closing with, I respectfully dissent. So Trump's attempts to overturn the election results case now hinges on whether Trump's conduct was private or related to his official duty.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
For example, the lower courts now have to determine when Trump pressured Pence to not certify the election, if that was an official business of being president or not, or when he called Georgia and said, hey, can you find me 11,000 votes? Was that official duty or was it outside his duty?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The same time, President Biden has dropped from 66% to 28%. There are a Gretchen Whitmer, all in the 8% to 12%, but they were low single digits prior to last week's debate. As you can see in the chart, Biden and Harris were about even this morning. The taping of this is Wednesday, July 3rd. But the New York Times reported that Biden told an ally he's considering dropping out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
President Trump has already cited the immunity ruling in requesting a New York judge throw out his conviction in the hush money case. Sentencing for that was pushed back from July 11 to September because of this ruling. Sax, there's your wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
What do you think, Jacob?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Well, Jacob, what do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
This is I'm really curious.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I mean, I read the the I'm halfway through the the original PDF. And I do think the President needs immunity, obviously, for conducting business. And then I do think if they step outside the lines, they should not have immunity, and then the devil will be in the details here, and that's what courts and juries exist to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So when he told Mike Pence to not certify the election, he's obviously not doing that as part of his duty as president. When he called Georgia to get the 11,000 votes, he was not doing that. That's why he had outside counsel there. That's why he hired Giuliani and the WAC PAC.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
What do you think of Sotomayor's hypothetical of using SEAL Team 6 to kill a political rival? You think that he would be immune from prosecution? Anybody would be immune from prosecution for that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
No, that seemed a little bit hysterical. And actually, that came up in the discussions. I actually listened to the audio version of this when they were doing the Q&A, basically. And I think you listened to it too, Friedberg, when you talked about it. So yeah, I think the devil will be in the details here and how they execute it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Obviously, you need to have immunity if you're going to, I don't know, take actions, you know, to assassinate Osama bin Laden, right, or whatever it is. But, you know, it is a bit concerning, this concept of being able to shield the president when he asks, I don't know, the attorney general to do something illegal. So these are the details that are going to need to be worked out here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And obviously, it's a split decision. So the Supreme Court themselves can't agree on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think that there's just so much we don't know about what it takes to be the president of the United States. The example that I gave you guys in the group chat is like, look at the whole Iran-Contra affair. How complicated was that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Can any of us really understand what all of the interplay was when Ronald Reagan decides to work around a weapons embargo, sell weapons to Iran, take money, funnel it and fund the Sandinistas? In the middle of all of that, there was a huge cocaine trade that was kind of enabled or supported. I mean, how do we know?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think there's just a lot of latitude that you give to the one person that you elect to be president. And so maybe it's just a good reminder for all of us that we are electing one person. We cannot be electing five or six people. We're not electing a shadow cabinet. We're electing one person. And this is just a reminder of how much power that one person has. Zach, do you have thoughts?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Freiburg, your thoughts, I guess, the steel man on the other side would be, you know, Trump doing things like calling Georgia and asking to find votes or pressuring the president, the vice president to overturn the election results after 60 failed legal cases, you know, is what's concerning the other side. So do you have a take on it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So we should note the White House, a White House spokesman said this is absolutely false. But this is the money chart from, I think, Polly Market. And we keep updating this document in real time while we're taping. Chances of Biden dropping out are now at 77%. That's up from 60% this morning, 40% after the debate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Where do you stand on that, Sachs? You, in previous episodes, have said you didn't believe in this election interference and you thought Trump lost. Have you changed your position on that or are you still in that position?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let me ask a follow-up to that then. So in the case of, do you think Trump was acting officially when he asked Georgia to find the votes, when he asked Pence to overturn the election, or do you think he was acting in his duty?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So this is the one I think, Chamath, that is super fascinating, because I could see President Trump and his lawyer saying, hey, very simple, you know, we think there was election interference. So yeah, we called Georgia to make sure that those 11,000 votes were there. And hey, you know, we thought this was not a fair election.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So I was acting in my duty when I told Pence to not certify the election. I could see them making that argument. What do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I don't know the specifics of these cases, but I think it's going to force a prosecutor to have a really strong point of view and have evidence and then go after somebody. But again, I think you're focusing too much on Trump. Robert said in the decision, you have to look past the exigencies of the current moment. This is a set of rules that's about past presidents and future presidents.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Because you live in San Francisco. Everybody knows that. All you have to do is look for the protests. Follow the protests and you'll find SAGs. Also with us, of course, from the Ohalo headquarters. Is that backdraft, Cooper? The house is on fire. The house is on fire. But house, you're referring to America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
This is for forever. And so that's the most important thing here, which is there's a set of rules that I think we can all agree on because the man that we all elect, dutifully elect, is the most powerful person in the world. We knew it before. We know it now. So even more important that we make sure we're picking one person and that person is capable of doing the job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You may not agree, but they need to be competent and capable of doing the job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah. Well, they definitely have to be competent. And this case was brought by Trump over this specific issue. So I think that's, if we look at this specific judgment here, that's what they're going to have to determine in the coming months or years with this case is, was he acting in his duty or was he not? That's going to be a really interesting case.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And by the way, Katonji Jackson supported that decision.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
It's not just one, it's 200 of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Small percentage of the overall convictions though.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Except for the ones who beat police and brought long guns.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Right. Maybe he does it there. Oh, is that what they're doing?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
All those people got suspended sentences and trespassing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, the ones who went to jail were the ones who beat cops. No, not Jacob Chansley.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Oh, yeah. So they also went to jail if you did damage, if you vandalized. Yeah, that was the other reason people went to jail.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I mean, if you vandalized a Capitol building, I guess you have to do something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
No, I think they shattered the windows.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I'm concerned about the ones who brought all the long guns to the hotels around the Capitol to have backup firepower. But, you know, hey, everybody's got a different opinion on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, I think you can hold both of those ideas. I don't think anybody innocent should go to jail, and I don't think the Oath Keeper should have brought guns to the Capitol. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, they brought them to the hotels around them. Huge, large caches of guns.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah. They drove to the Capitol on January 6th and brought their guns to the hotel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
We agree. They should not go to jail. They should get trespassing tickets. Okay. This is episode 186 of the world's number one podcast. Did Biden resign while we're taping?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Okay. For the chairman dictator from the home office in Italy, your Sultan of science and the rain man. Yeah, definitely. Definitely cabinet position. David Sachs. I am the world's greatest moderator of the number one podcast in the world. We'll see you next time. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So is that before nap time or after nap time?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So this is the last chance again. It's like this is like the third last chance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
stefanopoulos generally does a good job he's not a sycophant i think he he considers himself a legit journalist and will will actually well this is he'll throw some fastballs i think well this is bernstein moment i mean like if if stefanopoulos wants to go into the hall of fame this is his opportunity if he absolutely if he throws the high heater to biden and basically is the one that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
delivers the coup de grace, then his name will be in history alongside Biden for that reason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Which house? Which house? America or Democrats or Biden's house?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You can't. You can only move it to Harris. You cannot move the entire...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
He's still our guy. You're correct that they're buying time, obviously, while they try to figure this out. And the powers that be, which powers that be? The Biden camp, which is not the political machine. It's his literal family, Hunter, Jill, etc., What they're actually doing, and this will be the next Nostracanus prediction that will come true, is they're going to do... Nostracanus. Nostracanus.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
oh okay there you go but is your butt on fire did you have some bad indian food did you hit the taco truck what there's a heat wave in the west right now he stopped at the taco truck the west is on fire the west is on fire okay okay dr doom if you want to come to the all-in summit now in year three we've got a ton of programming updates but the tickets are going to sell out we just
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
They are going to do...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
all caps locks alert must credit no stracanus they're going to do a democratic primary speed run here's what's going to happen they're going to do five debates in 10 weeks and then whoever wins wins kamala he's going to resign kamala becomes president kamala gets to um run she gets to speed run like everybody else dean phillips gets to come in everybody speed runs it the they take over the media
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The media will go crazy over the summer. Massive ratings. Boom. And we have a winner come in and they demolish Trump. That's not going to happen. You said he's not going to get hop swapped as well. No, Strakans has gone off the rails. You said he wouldn't get hot swapped. So you have no. Well, it hasn't happened yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
It strengthens the party because they say, listen, he decided to resign. We wanted to do the most democratic thing possible. What's the most democratic thing possible? We put all our candidates out there and you, the people, choose. Chamath, tell them I'm right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think this is one of the dumbest predictions you've made. And you've made some real doozies in your day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
We tried that four years ago and you're missing the history, which is Mike Bloomberg tried that exact same thing. And there was one word that was said to Mike Bloomberg and his candidates imploded. And it was the word billionaire. So the idea that you're going to get some other billionaire that all of a sudden is less hated. I mean, Mike Bloomberg has done so much good, quite honestly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And so if he can't kind of escape the scarlet letter of the B word, I don't know how anybody else is going to do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Release another 100 tickets. Jason, I'm sorry, you have a fly like attacking your head right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
All right, everybody, welcome to the number one podcast in the world. Here we are on the All In podcast. We have a fifth bestie with us today. Joining David Freiberg, Chamath Paihapatiya, David Sachs, and myself is the one and the only Mark Cuban. How you doing, buddy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
On a percentage basis, how often have you voted just a level set, Democrat versus Republican, would you say, out of 10 elections?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I think what he's saying is the leadership that he shows is of low moral character. Did he do anything right, Mark?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Tell us about that. That's fascinating. He got 19% of the vote as an independent candidate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So that is the answer to your question. So just to summarize what you the argument that you don't like about him is you got to know him, like many people do. You worked with him on projects. And like Pence, Barr, Mateus, Tillerson, Bill Barr, and Mike Cohen, and the Mooch, Omarosa, you realized this person is out for themselves. They don't care about the people they work with. And you fell out of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Freeberg hasn't been able to get involved. Let's have Freeberg ask a question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, no, but I just wanted to include Freeberg in the discussion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
What is the high level report card mark to put a cap on this just for the audience. Here is our national debt over the two presidencies, the two terms. And as you can see, with the taking out the bump for COVID, it's pretty much they're both wild spenders. I think we can all agree they both are spending too much money and we need to have more fiscal discipline. We all agree on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Now, to Chamath's point, it's steel, man. Anything you like about the Trump presidency? And then we'll go to Kamala.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I mean, I reversed that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yeah, 35 to 21. You got it exactly right. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Or Vivek would have beaten Trump in a debate?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Here we go. Two things seem to be true at the same time. If I'm recapping your position here, Mark, one, you would have liked to seen Trump debate. Two, I think you would have loved to seen a speed run primary, perhaps maybe Kamala, you know, battled it out. I honestly didn't care.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yeah, you got a good character arc on Entourage. I think that was probably the best one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That was pretty memorable. So, Sax, lead us off here. I don't know if you've been following Mark Cuban on social media at all or if you guys interact.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Why do you think they opened the border so much? I'm wondering, Mark. There is a conspiracy theory, or theory, you can pick how you want to frame it, that this is to increase the number of Democratic voters. At the same time, we hear that a lot of the folks coming in who are the working class, that the Republican Party is now the populist party, so those votes would go to the Republicans.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So, you know, I've heard this argument from both sides.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
In any event- Yeah, well, people were actually, it was interesting to bring that up because people were sharing videos and playing them on Fox that were from like 10 years ago. So there was a lot of misinformation. The Democrats,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Now it's actually a good question for you, Sax. If J.D. Vance can lobby and want a national abortion ban and then change his mind as the number two for Trump, can Kamala change her mind when she decides? He's no longer running for, you know, the number two seat as Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Can Kamala and you have the grace for Kamala to change your mind or not?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You have a nuanced opinion of this, yeah. And Ukraine?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And on the first day of the new fiscal year, federal debt jumped by $204 billion in one day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
What would be common sense? crypto regulation. Obviously, you don't want people bilking people out of their money. Yeah. So what would be a way to balance accredited investors versus the populace non sophisticated investors, if that's even a thing. So I've got a company called people running a muck.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, I was going to say, wouldn't a more common sense approach here be to say, if we had an accreditation test, a sophisticated investor test, we've talked about it here on the program. Which you do, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, there's not one for the populace to take like a driver's license where they could say, hey, I've taken this test. I understand this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Why would she do interviews with unfriendly or challenging folks? This seems to be a really valid criticism.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You have gotten very vocal about politics during this cycle. And you seem to be, I don't know if it's official, you know, speaking on behalf of the Kamala ticket. So why are you this active? What is the reason that you've decided to get this active during this election?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
When did she say something smart? I mean, seriously, what's the last thing she said that was smart?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Then in some cases, he just lies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Do you think he's incognito for client sex?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He's MIA right now and the Knicks are doing great. Do you think valuations peak, Mark?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, and you bought it for under $300,000 and you sold it for $3.5 million. Not everybody's keeping the records. I think Chamath, you bought at $300,000 and sold at $3 billion as well. So congratulations, boy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So, so, so you did oppo research sex. You got oppo research.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So you've heard from Saks. Are you a Cialis or a Viagra guy, Saks? What's going on here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Are you doing this as like a for-profit business? Are you losing money on this and doing it just to help society? What's your plan here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
and do comparisons to approximately what they're paying because their pbm won't tell them exactly what they're paying i have one suggestion for you there mark you can make this a non-profit when you sell the maps you could donate money to this then like six seven years later you could flip it into a for-profit and take it public there's like a strategy here and this could work out exactly the point and you know sam altman is an investor no i'm just kidding um and so um
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You think there's going to be a chance at job displacement? What do you think of this universal basic income cataclysm?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Let me ask you a final, final question then. That's great. You've done a reality show, just retired from that, cashed out of three quarters of the Mavericks check, did that, helping people with,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
uh this cost plus drugs and and saving people money it's a pretty noble mission kind of adds up to you're going to run for president and no there's no no why not it would be a great thing to do you've checked off all the boxes why wouldn't you old now too old now right he's not what he's talking about he's 20 years younger than trump and biden is wrong i changed i'm a sock puppet in my spare time i changed four years from now eight years from now would you would you even consider it or if you were going to consider it yeah right yeah
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
How would you process making that decision?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
All right. So with that, my Knicks got a shot this year. What do you think? Yeah, I thought the trade was great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're saying there's a chance. My knicks might get there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
There's a chance. All right, everybody. This has been another amazing episode.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Come back anytime, Mark, and we'll see you all next time. Bye-bye. Thanks, guys. That was awesome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
We can still go there. You can ask the question. All right. two of my besties last 25 years, you and Elon. Is this you guys just goofing on each other? You got an issue with Elon that's sincere? Or is it just playful, fun trolling?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
What do you think about the First Amendment principle that he's doing here of, like, radically changing Twitter from, like, it's pretty controlled to, hey, anything goes?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Interesting. Yeah. It's certainly a different place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, no, I know for a fact that this was a free speech mission for him. I do think, you know, multiple things can be true. Mark, you are correct that if you have spicy content, advertisers don't want anything to do with it. And they have choices. And it's also one of the smaller platforms that have choices that have more scale. So that makes it even easier.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And it's also true that they're boycotting him and specifically targeting but all these things are happening at the same time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And I think when you look at what he's done there, we'll look at it historically as this place that was very controlled and clean and owned by the press and the elites became this chaotic thing, but also ultimately the one place where at scale, you cannot be canceled. And if you look at cancellation as a concept, the number one place to get canceled was Twitter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
you said something even slightly off, man, they came down on you, they destroyed you. And now now that we've gotten rid of cancel culture, and people can say what they believe. And people can I don't know why it's necessary to find you think it's just finished the thought I do think that that will be looked at as a beautiful thing that he gave to society as a gift.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And it will be looked at as a really challenged business because it was an ad business that lost its advertising base. And Apple and Disney have choices. I
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
But he was also addicted to it. I can tell you that. As the person who got him to join.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
That's a pretty sharp elbow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, I mean, that would be reflected in the fact that so many people who are the co-founders have left. Yeah. That's a really big red flag. If this thing is going to change the world and all the co-founders leave.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yeah, with the original employees. I mean, I don't know if that's true, but that's bonkers. And then if you, well, I mean, if you also think about this business, Chamath, and where it's headed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I was f***ing around the Donald Trump cabinet members thing. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, but I mean, if you, we did a joke about it last week. But if you just look at
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
the the competition set that they're up against, they're losing 5 billion a year, they're making three and a half, they put this thing at 150 billion, it's 40 times 50 times revenue, to fill in that valuation on a price to sales basis, you know, it's kind of crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Oh, I can tell you they're freaking right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
This has been Overtime with the All In Podcast with Mark Cuban. We'll see you all next time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
But just as a weird point, he literally prints out his emails, writes on them, has them scanned in and sent as an image to you. Mark, wow, so are you on CNN.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He emailed it in image file.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
If one person loves my work, that's all that matters.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Correct. We see that a lot if we change the... title of the show, or the order of the topics. We debate this a lot, where it's now, this might be the thing that I want to talk about, but no one wants Science Corner up front, because then the audience won't click. No, I mean, we literally, some of the biggest battles.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Don't you guys think if we had Science Corner up front, more audience would click? Thank you. But that's the media business, right? More Trump. It's like, well, we've got enough Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Oh, we spent more this year. This year... We did? Oh, my God.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Well, see, that to me is the fun of it. By the way, let me just put a little plug in. This year, at the All In Summit in LA, the first night is going to be insane. Insane. It's like everything last year combined. Like, yeah, it's going to be awesome. Anyway. I mean... My job is to burn all the money.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Jason thinks everyone's like sipping champagne, looking in the sunset.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
This is a great, by the way, let's just ask the broader question. What's the business model? You have a new creator. They're starting to build an audience. advise them on what are the paths they can walk and where that can go? Because this is one of the paths, it's a great one that we're talking about, but like, what are the options and when does one become an option?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
So cost, challenge, but payoff is higher. Yeah. And that's the big- It can be. It can be. I think CPG is really hard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Mr. Beast's first videos. He's still up there. You got to go watch it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
By the way, that was a later video. His very first videos, you got to go watch the first 10 videos. I mean, he's playing video games.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
You're like, what? And he's speaking literally to no one. How did this guy become the most famous person in the world from that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
It's like a 20 hour long video. Just to go back to the question, isn't one of the other paths selling your content? So now we're seeing a bunch of deals. Jimmy's getting a deal from Amazon. Amazon paid him for the Beast games. We're seeing more comedians that do live shows getting deals with Netflix. We're seeing a bunch more of those happen. We're seeing Hulu and other platforms start to bid.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Even X might be doing some more content deals with folks that look more like journalists. So ultimately, how do you decide whether I want to monetize by ads and making a product, or is there becoming a more liquid market for selling my content onto bigger platforms that are losing their audience to be independent, so they need to basically go rebuild an audience?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Is that a realistic path, or is that just like the cream of the cream get to have access to kind of... I think that's a realistic path for the top. And maybe you could talk about the Spotify thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Because it usually doesn't involve other people. It's you where you kind of cross the line a little bit, but you know. That's why they tune in. I have to save you from you, J. Cal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
It's not their content. It's not proprietary to Netflix. No, it's licensed. So in that regard, he's making money on advertising. But he wouldn't be getting, he's not getting paid as much, or they're not getting paid as much as if they sold the content and the rights to Netflix. Is that right? Maybe if it was like an original. Yeah, I guess if it was exclusive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
I agree. How do the guys that are losing audience, which are the traditional broadcasters, how are they gonna respond as their audience gets attrited away? Like we're seeing, as long form is taking up more time and attention from the independents, Fox News is losing an audience. CNN is losing an audience. MSNBC is losing an audience. I mean, their audiences are gone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Like they're just vaporizing right now. What are they going to do? They've got a lot of cash. They've got a lot of advertising dollars still flowing in for now. They're well capitalized. They've got very motivated shareholders. What's their response? If you guys are an executive running Fox, what would you do?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
The long form is crushing too, right? Like the hour long. I mean, our show is 90 minutes. Lex does three and a half hours. I would say 20 plus. Rogan's like hours long and he's number one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Yeah. But does that mean that they're going to try and license Rogan? They're going to try and license Lex? They're going to try and license one of these independents in? Is that the move that they're going to have to make ultimately?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
So is the media exec going to go out and find the next or the up and coming and say, I want to bring you on. I'm going to pay you to come and do this on my platform now. You're going to become a Fox News show. You're going to become an ESPN show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
That's actually a great question. Because for me, I'm like not doing this podcast to like build a media thing. I just thought it'd be interesting. We started doing it during COVID and I just kind of kept doing it. I don't know why I kept doing it, to be honest. You tried to quit a couple times. I tried to quit like every week I wanted to quit. And I still contemplated a lot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
I don't think they will. It's entropy. It's only going in one direction. I think their audience erodes, their advertising dollars erode, and then they're getting whatever broadcasting distribution deals they have on cable are going to slowly be worth less. I don't know what it's going to be worth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
No, you're 100% right. The model's broken.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
And if it were like what you're describing, there's no friggin' way I'd do it. Like, zero chance. The only reason I do it is because I can get on Zoom for 90 minutes and be done, and then I go on the rest of my day for work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Until we got to sign an LLC agreement. Now it's all smooth sailing. The votes are what mattered.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
It's actually a great point. Yeah, I mean, Jason did keep us showing up, and then it became a thing, and then it's like, okay, we should probably do something legit to make this into a business or make it into something structural that stays alive. So we did.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
But to answer your question, I go to meet with farmers a lot and business executives in the agriculture industry, and I can't tell you how often I run into someone who's like, I watch your podcast, I'm a fan. That is... Like Farmer Joe. Like the other day I was in a meeting...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
I won't reveal too much, but like, I mean, you guys won't have any idea, but like some big farmer company, big company that does farming, who you would have never heard of, no one in this room has ever heard of. And then I'm in the hallway after we do this big pitch, and the guy pulls me aside, he's like, gives me a fist bump. He's like, love the pot. It is weird. It is weird.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
And then I'm in another state at a meeting, and the COO comes out. He's like, dude, I'm a big fan of the pod. And so it helps with building trust. You've earned a reputation. And so then when I go into meetings, people know me because of this pod, and that reduces friction. I don't have to go sell myself in a meeting. I'm already sold, and it makes business easier.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Do you think other people can do it, should do it? This is a big thing I see is like folks that want to kind of create a business through this kind of new creator economy. There's all these paths to monetization, build the audience. And they're like, what I'll do is I'll go find people to interview and I'll interview them. What's the barrier for folks? What makes folks really great at this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
What's the challenge in the business? And how do you kind of do it better than others?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Your conversations with people that you were truly interested in learning from. Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
I think that's really interesting because it's kind of like our podcast was us literally talking with each other about the things that were going on in the world and how we were maneuvering in COVID and talking about markets, stuff that we would literally do. at the poker table. And then we just did it on Zoom and put it on the internet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Genuine, authentic conversations that you want to have as an individual that you're interested in having. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
By the way, this is a little different than what we talked about, which is the other side of this creator economy, which is hacking an audience, making stuff for an audience, growing the audience, where your focus is on algorithmically, technically, tactically identifying things that the audience likes and then focusing on those things and building from there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
And this is a very different kind of tack. both work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
You and I both agree on, like, film and the importance of great film and great directors are the ones that were left to fuck alone. You know, the great directors are the ones who got the deals at the studios where they were told they had complete creative control.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
So can we talk about monetization, how you think about making money?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
And so for me, the pod isn't about making money on the pod as much as it is like helping me in my everyday work, which is where I spend pretty much all my time except for a couple hours a week here. To contextualize that in the conversation we're going to have today, you create an audience with your content. What do you do with that audience? What are you doing this for?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
to a spooky house that had... Is it like literally the opposite of what Colin and Tamir were saying with keep the budget low?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
You can sell ads and make money against that audience. You can get sponsors that you speak to quality products that you endorse and you can make more money and you can either get paid cash or get some equity. You can build your own product and actually own it and then own all the equity and participate meaningfully in the upside as you sell your audience your product.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Yeah. Should we go to the monetization? So how do you start thinking about building the business, high quality content, authentic content? Was it a conversation about, hey, let me just put this out there, make ads, and I'll figure it out later? Or was it very deliberate? And how's the model kind of evolving for you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Yeah. And they come in or you call out?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
You mean where you have the option to turn them off?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
It's interesting when we were talking about the old media model. I'm new to all this stuff, so I'm not, like, big in this podcasting space, but I just observe. So maybe what I say is super reductive and obvious, but it's like, you've got these pharmaceutical ads on Fox News,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Or in other cases, you're building credibility. You're building, which is what a lot of venture capitalists did after our show, I think, kind of became big. They realized that they have this opportunity to build credibility with entrepreneurs. So when an entrepreneur shows up, they're like, oh, I want to work with you because I've seen you on your podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
and it's in between the segments, and none of the anchors give a shit about the pharmaceutical ad, nor do they talk about or promote it, and they have no connection to it, there's no authenticity to it, but here there's an opportunity to be selective and to have it be part of the content, part of the experience, and it actually probably does better as a result with the audience than you would get with that, you know,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Have you talked to your doctor about your diarrhea or whatever?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
You don't want your customers losing money being upset at you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
So let me ask you guys both a question. In the old internet world, there were these companies that emerged within DoubleClick, a quantitative that were the site rep firms. So there were a lot of independent websites out there. They didn't They didn't have the most sophisticated sales force. They couldn't go hire the two great sales reps to go do the work and dial in.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
There wasn't a very liquid market. So the site rep firms would rep your site. They would go out and get out. Do you see more of those kind of emerging today? Are they getting more sophisticated? Are they getting better to enable smaller creators to be able to kind of be successful in this space right now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Or investors show up, I want to invest with you because I've seen your comments on your podcast. So I think there's a lot of ways to think about the value of this. But building an audience, building credibility is really beneficial and it can work out in a lot of ways.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Let me ask you guys both another question. So you've now got a great content creation engine, which is you. You have a great content creation at This Week in Startups, which is you. and then you got this advertiser set up, so you got ad dollars coming in, how do you get leverage so that it's non-linear? Any great business has a non-linear scaling function.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
And in your business, you guys are limited, and this is something we've talked with Jimmy at MrBeast about, If it's just you making the content, you can only make X number of units of content per month, per year. So that limits the scalability of the revenue for your organization in terms of how big this can get.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Do you ever think about creating leverage in the system where you do almost like what a Spielberg does with an Amblin Entertainment or any great director or producer does where they scale up, they become the producer. Like a network. They create a network, they create a studio model, and then you have several content shows that are under your brand. Have you ever thought about that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Is that kind of the model where this is eventually going to go, where some of the great breakouts are going to end up realizing they can kind of scale up and build the next studio model?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
What if you still did your show, but you have others that you kind of bet on, basically?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
So in the new media world, is it all just lots of independent producers and there is no studio model?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Well, I think the question is the economic moat being can you reinvest capital in creating high-quality content because if that capital is invested well, it creates an audience. So you give certain people money, People will show up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Yeah, more money comes out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Trump gets shot today, you need to do your video today, because people are going to be going, and that's the hack to get to the top, because... We've had this issue where we put out a show, because we record Thursday mornings, and it doesn't publish usually until Friday afternoon, something happens Thursday after we record, and the show sucks. And literally no one watches it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Yeah, no one will watch the show. That's not true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
But the volume goes down like 40% down. Oh, what are we going to do?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Yeah, I think that's a big point. What other content do you think is going to win, going to continue to accelerate time and attention away from other forms of content? So the long-form podcast conversation, learn about the world with me. Are there other forms that are out there that are interesting to you, that formats that you think are new or emerging or that are real winners?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
And 100 YouTubes are worth one email. By the way, it's a lot like having a cigarette. You need it, but you don't want it. You end up being like, I'm not really looking forward to that TikTok tonight. You're not really sitting there at work being like, I can't wait to watch that TikTok. But you get home and you're like, I need my TikTok.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
But you do look forward to seeing this great new movie that's coming out this weekend. Or the latest episode of your favorite show. Or the latest episode. You're like, I want that. I don't need it, but I want it. And I think there's a big difference between that, and I think that's where the short form really hits the limbic system. It doesn't actually activate the rest.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
I feel happy having a walk and a long talk.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
I'll tell you what I think might win. My personal point of view on this is I think that that content will get turned into an AI chat experience. Jason makes fun of me about this, but I do sit in my car. I do a lot of long drives now. It's at my office, like Santa Cruz and the cities. I drive a lot. And I talk to ChatGPT Advanced Voice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
But I'll talk about a topic, and I'll learn about it, and I'll engage with it, and I'll kind of go back and forth. But if I find if I flip on like a book on tape or something, my brain wanders off and I got questions and ideas and I'm like, oh, then I start thinking about it and then I realize, oh, man, three minutes have gone by.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
A lot of people say this was the podcast election. the big media companies from journalism, Fox News, CNN, to the big platforms, Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, to Disney and others are kind of rearranging their pawns on the chessboard based on, and responding to what's going on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
And so for me personally, and maybe this is just the way I'm wired, like I kind of like the interactive model. But I do think this great content, like Jonathan Haidt's new book, gets put out as kind of an interactive mode where I get to go engage. It starts telling me about it. I can ask questions. And it's almost like I'm having a conversation with the author.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
And that's where going back to the earlier point, like the cultural experience is the book written by the author, but the way I experience it is going to be different than the way you experience it in an AI world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Totally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
It's the way humans are. Humans aren't designed to sit on the floor and be lectured to by another human. Humans are designed to be social creatures, to have engagement, to have that process. And I think that that's how it plays out in our brain. There's more of a responsive chemistry to that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
That's 100% right. You can't watch a Kurosawa film and not feel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
I wish I deleted TikTok. Great point. By the way, we're going to continue the conversation. So guys, join us thanking Chris, and we're going to invite the rest of the crew back out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
They do lab tests. They do lab tests on a Saturday morning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
No. Yes, yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
And what was cool is we saw... You just did it on your... You're like, I'm just going to max out, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Have you done ketamine before this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
So you're just chilling. You're like, I'm going to max out on ketamine? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Yeah. Well, before we bring our friends out, Colin and Samir, I'm going to just quickly. We don't do sponsors on the show or ads on the show, but when we do live events.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
We want to pay for these. We don't want to pay for live events out of pocket, so we do have sponsors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
You'll be fine. Find another Uber. I did. It's called Robin Hood. It's doing great. So I want to say thanks to Gemini. Gemini just stepped up. I think we just got them involved this week in helping us put this event on and the after party on. Global Cryptocurrency Exchange. Everyone knows Gemini.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
I'll make a bet right now that'll make you guys more money than anything else combined.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Because you guys will sell tickets to the live event, but the sponsors, to get that targeted audience in a captive way, will pay you more than they'll pay for the online. That's what you guys will make.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
You know, when you point... I have zero... Like, fuck them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
They're a bad guy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
I guarantee you're using Procter & Gamble toothpaste in about three hours.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
available in all 50 states with a focus on security, and you can buy, sell Bitcoin plus 70 other cryptocurrencies. Gemini's offering new users 50 bucks in Bitcoin when you sign up with the code ALLIN, A-L-L-I-N. Even you might trade crypto after this, J.K.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Sorry, what did you test? Brian, what did you test? Dies?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Have you done plastics? Or is that separate?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Roundup-ready cotton.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Hold on a second. I know it's super hyperbolic, but just the plastic thing, it's really important to note, they rank things, but you also have to look at the absolute numbers. This is where this can get a little too carried away.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
I think that there's a lot of shocking shit in there that's super bad, but you've also got to recognize that a tiny amount that's like one trillionth of something that could ever affect your body, it'll flush out, may not be that bad. So we've got to be really cognizant on how we
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Zach, um...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
All heavy metals?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Give me one of your nicotine drinks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
No, I'm okay. I'm okay. I did a lot of drugs earlier. What do you think of Bobby Kennedy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
I like the reframe. Look, there's a lot of really important questions being asked that are not asked in the way that they're being asked now. That's the most important thing, is the system needs to be challenged, and whatever's left will get hardened, and whatever shouldn't be there will get blasted away. And that's it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Gemini.com slash all in. Use the code all in. 50 bucks, free Bitcoin with $100 deposit. And then Function Health, we've negotiated a special deal for users today. They have access to over 100 lab tests, which I think is super interesting. Personally, it's really hard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Just see if there's any cool AMAs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
So you go to sleep super hungry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Leave your kids in the house and go sleep in the garage.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
No, no. One shower. That could help.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
It's hard to go to your doctor and get the tests you need. You can sign up at Function Health.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
All in, 100 at checkout to get 100 bucks credit. And then True Niagen, which is a product I take.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
NAD Plus Booster. All right. Lots of studies, very efficacious. So thank you to TrueNiagen. Again, great product. But those are the sponsors. They helped pay for this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
We should talk about this another time, but there's a lot of good work on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
I mean, it's longer conversation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
You want to get Colin and Samir out?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
You guys are like real creators. Brand deals and all. Look at that brand deal. Thanks for being here. I think we wanted to talk to you guys a little bit about the evolution in media. I want to talk a little bit about the origination and the creator economy where folks were putting out, and tell me if I'm off on this, but what felt like more kind of short form content.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
And so we thought it'd be really interesting to hear about some of the people who we think are probably the smartest in the creator economy in terms of building a business and how you maneuver and how you play and how you grow as part of that conversation today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
It was almost like a new type of media that was different than traditional long form media. TikTok type content. But then what happened, it's like folks started doing podcasts and the content started to eat into other forms of media. It started to eat up journalism now and eat up news media. And now the platforms are doing deals with the independent creators to put out long-form content.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Can you talk a little bit about the evolution of short-form, long-form?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
So the reach has grown because of YouTube on TV. Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Maybe we'll get into that too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
I wouldn't call it phenomenally well. There's like a couple hundred views.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
But it comes from an empathetic place, Senator. And I know this in kind of a liberal setting. You see people in need. You want to help them. And you use government as a tool to help people in need. And the fundamental issue is that in many cases that creates an incentive model that makes it very difficult for that solution, for that situation to find a solution on its own, a market solution.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
And over time it gets bigger and bigger and bigger and you have cascading effects that I believe we're now realizing in this country with what I estimate is somewhere between 40 to 50 percent of people that are employed in this country employed by government or government service providers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
And I think what's challenging, Senator, is that then you have compromises that get you to a point where the federal government has a big enough role in health care. My opinion is much of the inflation in health care costs arises from the federal government's role in the same way that the federal government has a role in student loans that has driven up the cost of education.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
And the federal government has a role in providing loans for housing, has also driven up the cost of housing. Education. Education across the board. It's a story. But the empathetic solution is we need to provide access to those who can't get it. And then at the end of the day, it inflates the cost of all of those services. And ultimately, the quality of the services erodes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
And I'll give you the anecdote real quick. My brother lives in England. They just had a child, he and his partner. And they went to the delivery room, and they couldn't get a bed. She was in labor. They could not get a bed to have the baby. I think it took them 36 to 72 hours to actually get into a bed while she was in labor. It was the most insane. He's calling me. He can't get a bed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
I'm like, you're living in the frigging UK. This is supposed to be one of the wealthiest nations on earth. That's the outcome of socialized medicine. And along the way, you get the inflationary effects that we're dealing with in the United States today. I'm with you on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Hydrocarbon. And then subsidies for, quote, green energy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Senator, you just said five things, but what you didn't say was doge. So cutting taxes, there's an inflation problem. There's no way you're cutting taxes and not cutting government spending and not tampering inflation down. Don't we have to cut federal spending? How important is doge? How real is it? Is it a marketing gimmick from your point of view? How much can actually be done?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Is it a real, you know, is this kind of require legislative authority and it's going to be a longer form process or is there going to be a lot of very quick action?
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Yes.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
You're saying tax revenue went up as the economy grew.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Look, Doge- But is there a deficit mandate?
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Are you a small government conservative? Very much so. And if no one was going to be able to run for re-election, What percent of Congress do you think would support a massive reduction in government agencies? How much of this really is driven by this kind of I got to get reelected?
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Versus what my principals tell me.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
What would it take for the voters to eventually get there? Because it would require the voters backing a candidate with that message. And it seems like no one sees that because what everyone sees is I want to get X. And the only way I get X is if I get the government to do X for me.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Hey, Senator, that's very powerful. You had an anecdote for me two nights ago. I don't know if you're willing to share it, about a conversation regarding Denmark and Greenland. Do you want to tell us what you think happens here?
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
It's a lot that I send J-Cal texts like that all the time.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Well, he was already, I think... He likes to go with the trend, so that was the trend. Yeah, that's what happens when you're a weatherman.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
It's close to home. No, no, no. Keep telling us about... All right, okay.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Yeah, Denmark-Greenland.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Yeah.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
They just did a survey there.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Well, Senator, we could pay $200 billion for the territory of Denmark. Their federal debt or their national debt is about $150 billion. They'd have a $50 billion surplus. They could build a pension plan around it.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
You could spend another $10 billion to put everyone in a great situation for the rest of their life that's a resident of Greenland, and that becomes an American territory.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Let's just make an open offer. And sorry, how does the president and the administration, how are they going to tackle this? Do you have any insights into what's going to happen here?
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
But California was a pioneering state, the gold rush. What happened? Because it's always easy to blame idiot politicians, but in a democracy... Those politicians are elected by the voters.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
So where did the voters go that caused this change in that state compared to where the voters went in Texas when they both came from, and all of America, all of the United States, all the states of the Republic came from a pioneering origin?
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
You are in the arena. Do you think it's become... We were talking with Ro Khanna, congressman from California. earlier today, and we talked about how there might be good policy put forth by one of the two parties, but the other party's intention is always to get more seats, get more attention, get more votes, and hurt the other party, so we end up having conflict over policy.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Do you feel like there's too much of that in D.C.? And a lot of people talk about the, you know, everything has become too politicized as opposed to, you know, I always think about the show, I love the show The West Wing, and he always talks about the great debate, you know, like we never have the great debate anymore. We don't talk about the fundamental, you know, policy decisions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
We talk about the Republicans said this and so and so, and it gets personal and it gets political, as opposed to like, let's all take our hats off and talk about what's the right thing for the country. Doge being a great example, in my opinion, but I'd love to hear your point of view on how things operate in D.C. today.
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Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
But we're all patriots is the sad part. All Americans. All Americans.
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The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Look, I'll take a slightly different view than Gavin. I've said this in the past, but maybe I'll try and contextualize it a little bit. I think that the big unlock with these kind of agentic systems is not necessarily about replacing the easy human tasks, which everyone kind of thinks are kind of the obvious application of them.
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I think what we're missing is the ability to unlock really complex tasks that are not really manageable today. I can't come up with a very grand project planning exercise with the team I have today. I have to go hire 30 people. Let me give you an example. I want to go build a plant breeding facility under the ocean. Okay. So how do I do that?
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So to do that today, I'm like, well, I got to go hire people that understand oceans. I understand.
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engineering that understand how to do underwater engineering, I have to hire material scientists, I have to hire physicists, I have to hire construction project planners, there's a whole group of complicated people I would need to kind of put together to be able to kind of execute on that opportunity.
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But now a smaller group, maybe three or four people or two people can say, okay, let's use these agents to help us build that project plan. and spec out every step of the process, define how much everything will cost, what workloads are needed, who's going to do what. So suddenly that difficult project becomes a reality.
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Here's another good example, the California high-speed rail program that's ballooned to this $100 billion. What if we had agents organizing and running that program? Well, maybe the cost of that program and the reality of that program makes it a reality now.
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So it suddenly becomes a program that we launch, we get it done, we build this railroad, whereas all the people, all the complication, all the confusion has and whatever grift has been going on, has led to $100 billion balloon budget with no outcome. So I think complex
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projects can actually be tackled in an easier way, that actually unlocks a tremendous amount of building, a tremendous amount of opportunity for new employment, for people to come in and small teams of three or four to get hired that can now do the work of three or 400 really deeply sophisticated, highly technical people with a very small, less technical group.
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So I think there's going to be a tremendous amount of opportunity in biotech, in engineering, in manufacturing, in urban design, in transportation, and on and on and on, where small groups are going to get spun up that can use these systems to do really complex projects.
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It's less about like, oh, you're going to replace call centers, like, sure, maybe, but like, what are we going to be able to do with these things that I can't even think about doing today?
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100%.
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The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
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I think J. Cal is turning. This is incredible. What a day.
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So I think this issue will become one of... whether or not government officials can use Signal and apps like it for communication. This is a controversy that's been around for some time, but it's actually being pried in the courts right now. There's, I think, four active cases.
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So the Federal Records Act was originally passed in 1950, and then there was this amendment related to electronic communications that was passed in 2014. And the Federal Records Act says all government officials and employees have to create, maintain, and preserve adequate and proper documentation of activities, transactions, decisions, policies, and other business. That's the law. That's the law.
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And it says adequate and proper documentation is defined as records that clearly document the government's decisions and actions. And that can be preserved and retrieved for accountability, transparency and historical purposes. And then we have the FOIA laws, which allow you to as a citizen, or as a journalist, you'll make a request.
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yeah, the FOIA provides access to government records because our taxpayer dollars pay for the government to do its work and therefore access.
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So the question is, is the particulars of the communication that's taking place amongst these individuals in this case and in the daily work done by government officials that's like this, where people are updating one another or talking with one another about things, Does that have restrictions around preservation of records under the Federal Records Act and the amendment that came out in 2014?
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And so there were a bunch of lawsuits. One is the Competitive Enterprise Institute against the OSDP, the Office of Science and Technology Policy in 2016.
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where using email accounts and communications that weren't properly archived or preserved was challenged by this institute, and the DC Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the officials who use private email for official business must copy or forward email communications to government accounts to comply.
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The Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington Act sued the Trump administration in 2017, and this is ongoing in multiple forms right now in the courts, where there's a lot of procedural complexity But the courts have generally said that they emphasize that these officials are obligated to preserve official communications and that failure is violating the laws.
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Then there's Judicial Watch versus Department of Homeland Security. And then there's National Security Archive versus Mike Pompeo, the State Department in 2019, which is also still in the courts.
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And I think from these cases and this particular incident, there's going to become much greater kind of call it clarity and also a better understanding of the consequences of what communication do you need to preserve records of and what communication are you allowed to have off the record that you can have.
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I think it is counterproductive to have every piece of communication foible and kept in the public record. I think that's a mistake. And I'll tell you why. When you're making a business decision, let's say you're making an HR decision, the management team sitting around, they're talking about a particular candidate or person at the company. Should we give this person a raise?
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Should we terminate someone? You don't want to have a record of that, that employees can then go pull up and see and understand because it will have a really muting effect on
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and a dampening effect on the types of conversation, on the authenticity of the conversation, on the productivity of the conversation that you will be able to have if you're forced to say, this is always gonna be in the public domain. And so I do think that this idea on like, how did you make a decision? And what was the action that you took? Those to me feel like they should be recorded,
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and they should be FOIA-able. But all of the background material, all of the noise, all of the dialogue that leads up to that, I do not think that should be FOIA-able.
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And I think that you need to justify the actions and the decisions that you're making as a government official, but I don't think that you need to have a record personally of everything that led up to that action or that decision, because I think that that will be really deeply unproductive.
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matches the rights and the values that the United States should stand for. I think it's different if you believe that they're here illegally, they're part of a criminal enterprise, and we don't wanna try them in courts here, then we should ship them back to a port of departure somewhere else in another country. Maybe it's back to Venezuela. and let their courts try them.
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The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
But I will talk a little bit about this El Salvador motivation. As you guys know, the El Salvador prison that they set up for putting the gang members in had a radical impact on living standards in the country. In 2015, the homicide rate per capita in El Salvador was 103 people per 100,000. So one out of every thousand people were murdered every year.
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They introduced this aggressive policy of rounding people up without due process and putting them in this prison. And through that action, they were able to reduce the homicide rate per capita below two per 100,000, which is what it was last year, 1.9.
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So it had a radically positive effect on society, but obviously at the cost of a value that we in the United States hold dear, which is the value of due process and the importance of due process, because all it takes is one innocent life being locked up
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There was no due process. And so there are plenty of stories. If you watch the documentaries on this prison, there are plenty of stories of people that later were released when they were found to be completely innocent and randomly rounded up or caught up in a sweep or something that they shouldn't have been at.
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And there was actually one fascinating interview I saw of one of the guys who spent over a year in the prison was completely innocent. But he said, you know what? It was worth it because the government's been able to clean up the streets. I got to find this clip, but I was really like shocked.
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I couldn't believe that a guy that spent a year in this prison actually had something positive to say because it was such a profound.
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Well, it was such a profoundly difficult place to live in El Salvador. And we've all heard these stories. But I do think that there is a cue being taken by this administration. that there's a way to kind of very quickly resolve to a positive outcome with respect to immigration and crime.
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But I do think Gavin's point is right, that we do have to have some boundary conditions, particularly as it relates to human rights that we do value here in this country. And as long as there's a court trial, as long as there's a judge, as long as there's some sort of, it doesn't need to be a jury of peers, but as long as there's some evidentiary hearing,
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to make the determination that someone is likely this criminal, it makes sense. But again, I'm much more in favor if there's gonna be forced movement of people, I don't think that they should necessarily be moved into a prison as much as move to a port of departure and have them tried in another country. if there's a crime, or we try them here and put them in prison.
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Most people would say yes, because they would view it wouldn't affect them. And then the two to 5% of people who have family members who are innocent get locked up.
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Yeah, I wouldn't compromise that value.
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S, S, S, S, S, S, S, S, S, S,
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
I just love that he's got a full name.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Marshall Eugene Friedberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Rain Man David Sackets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Thank you, President Biden. President Trump?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
This has been, quite frankly, a car accident in slow motion that we've seen over and in building and questioning it. And as has been pointed out, Joe Biden sought this debate at this remarkably early time because he knew he was losing and he needed to change the narrative. And he did change the narrative. He sunk his campaign tonight.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I'm curious what you guys thought, but to me what was notable from Scott Besant, the new treasury secretary, he was asked in one of the exchanges about the green energy race with China. And he reframed the debate, I thought, incredibly well, where he said, we're not in a green energy race with China. We're in an energy race with China. That's right. Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
And he made the point that China is adding 100 coal plants. It's adding nuclear. And to me, it was kind of just 137 gigawatt hydro facility, which is exactly unbelievable. And it was such a good framing of the debate, because I think, Chamath, to your point, it's about reframing the right issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
And I think that just that little piece of dialogue to me is exemplified and was a really important takeaway and I think more of what we'll see over the next coming year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Did you see the photo of the half-empty conference room? Yes. Most of the events were just empty chairs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I think it's worse, Chamath. I think it's a counter indicator now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
All in one. All in one. Prel. Shampoo plus conditioner. One bottle. Easy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
It's a question. I do both. But in this case, it's, you know, like Cuba Gooding and Jerry Maguire. I air dry, baby.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
By the way, only time I've ever been stomped in the street in my life. In the Presidio. A very nice lady tapped me in the shoulder and said, I loved your all-in talk. It's never happened before. So that says more about all-in than me, but the reach is increasing. It's a little bit too much.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Still a CAA client, by the way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
what are your thoughts thomas on what should happen with tick tock and what will happen i don't know what will happen but i do think it'd be interesting um to share you guys we were in but we are investors in tick tock okay we invested back it was obviously just a chinese company and investing in china was very different back then
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
But what resonated to me when I met the founder, and he just had a very simple idea, which is his view was, if I have a piece of content, and it's a great piece of content, how can I have it be shared? And his view was that if you share it on Instagram, the only way people see it is if you had a lot of followers. And so he just had a really simple idea.
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Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I am not. You're not. But I've watched with wonder at what he's achieved after I left being his agent. It's been incredible. Great career.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
And he said, what if I take every piece of content that's uploaded into the system and and I show it to at least one other user. So no matter what that content is, at least one person will see it, even if you have no followers. And then based on whether that person views it or how long, I might show it to another user. And then a third and a fourth.
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And it was such a revolutionary idea, and it really resonated with me at the time. And it just goes to show how we're in an idea business. And when you have a truly revolutionary idea, it can get really big. And so the whole genesis of TikTok came from that really simple concept of your content will be shown. And if people like it, it will be shown to a lot of people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
So obviously, I mean, if you look at TikTok in the US, we can just kind of very back of the envelope, look at the math, right? So... If we look at DAUs, Mother Blue, or Meta, as we love to know, the Facebook hat, roughly, right, has about 200 million DAUs in the US.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Yeah, correct. Right. So if you look at Facebook plus Instagram, you'll see it's about 200 million DAUs. And you can look at the time spent. What's interesting about TikTok's time spent is the DAUs are about half of combined meta and Insta. So we get about 100 million DAUs in the US. But the time spent on the platform is the equivalent of Facebook plus Instagram.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
So obviously, incredible, not just scale in terms of DAUs, but also on time spent. So if we think about, okay, well, what would that mean the business is worth? So if we look at meta today, the market cap is roughly one and a half trillion. I think internet investors generally assume about roughly half the market cap is U.S.,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
So if we take the one and a half trillion, maybe that's $750 billion, right? Now, we know that the time spent is equivalent, but the DAUs are half, so maybe we cut the $750 in half, right? That would tell you that the max value, if you monetize the way Meta does and ran it the way Zuck does, might be $375 billion for the US asset alone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I think from that point, you start to apply a couple of discounts. One is, if that's my long-term value, what kind of return would an investor want potentially to get to that 375? Is it 50%? Maybe you cut that by 50%. And then I think the devil would be in the details. What are exactly are you getting? Are you just getting users? Are you getting the algorithm? Are you getting data? Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
So maybe you also want to apply kind of a more kind of severe discount to that. But I think you put it all together, you know, is 100 billion a reasonable scenario? You know, I think the math proves it. And then could it be a trillion dollar asset the way Trump has mentioned? I mean, in a world where Facebook's one and a half, right? And the penetration of TikTok in the US is 50% of what Meta is.
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Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Yeah. That's true, actually. He did really great last year. Really crushed it. Crushed it. Crushed it, of course. And I think I'm in the seventh bestie position and hoping potentially after the podcast to at least move up by one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I don't think it's unrealistic. So let's see what happens. I don't have any particular insight on what will happen. But what I do know is that it's an incredibly valuable franchise.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I don't know. I mean, first of all, there's kind of no deal. So it's a little bit hard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
We never attributed much value to the TikTok US asset in the sense of our analysis was always based on the value of the Chinese business, specifically because it's just hard to know what the TikTok asset ex-China would be worth. Is it worth zero because it's so compromised regulatorily? Is it worth a lot more? It's just very, very difficult to know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
We always took a very conservative view of really looking at the Chinese and some of the other assets as the core value of ByteDance, the holding company. Ultimately, what TikTok happens, it's the classic when you try and sell a company, what's the value? Well, it depends. Is there one bidder or five bidders? Is the government the only bidder for that asset?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
In that case, it will indicate a value of X. Are there other companies that potentially could be an acceptable bidder to both sides?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I mean, if you think about it, what did we learn a couple days ago? We learned that it might just get shut down and be worth zero, right? So in one sense, anything that's greater than zero by definition is kind of better, right? I think ultimately,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
it will kind of come down to does the government want to be the only bidder for the asset or would the government be comfortable with either Elon owning it and merging it to X or Microsoft owning it or, you know, what happens.
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I think if you look, David, virtually all of our investments in China were Chinese companies catering to the Chinese market. There was a massive trend of a very significant economy that was adopting technology. We can think about whether that be smartphones, companies like you know, Huawei, whether it was companies like Meituan that were doing food delivery or Tencent that were doing gaming.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so, you know, all our approach was basically based on these companies. And by the way, a lot of them were public, which is what people don't remember. Chamath, you may remember, but Tencent at one point was a public company listed in Hong Kong. The market cap was $200 million. Yeah, I do remember. Wow. What was interesting about it, Dave, is a lot of that played out. Baidu was an early IPO.
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A lot of that trend of Chinese companies catering to the Chinese market really played out across public and private markets for over 20 years. I think, to me, what significantly changed over the past five years is technology really became a matter of national security.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I don't think that when we were early investors in Meituan, that we necessarily viewed that as a national security threat, as an example. And I think as... As companies got bigger, as AI came to be, it became pretty obvious that there were national security implications. Our view as investors is we don't set the rules of the road. We rely on government and regulators to do so.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It was pretty clear, I think, to Avias that the regulatory regimes were changing in both countries. For us as investors, we were just, well, we're just going to follow what the rules are and what the governments are.
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Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
my only kind of regret through this whole thing is and i don't know any you know if you guys had kind of some exposure to this but the quality of the entrepreneurs that came out of that era was unbelievable that's a strong cohort yeah absolutely when you think about the the founder of meituan wang shi and just how brilliant he was and what he's done with that franchise and not just doing food delivery but also the software operating system for restaurants right it's truly incredible
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Pony Ma from Tencent. It was such an incredible group of entrepreneurs. They were a lot of fun to be around. They were excited and passionate about bringing technology to their country. Is it over? Yeah. Hard to know. I mean, if you look at the capital markets, I mean, you can see we've not seen a tremendous amount of innovation, right? Or new companies kind of coming out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
So I think the key question is, you know, is it a pendulum? And, you know, does the Chinese regulatory regime kind of move one way and then it kind of moves another way? Or is it kind of fixed in this state?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I don't really know, Dave, because as an investor, it's not a regulatory regime that you have any interaction with, right? You're really talking to the entrepreneurs and you're kind of reflecting off of their energy and their business ideas, right? So we would meet businesses and we would meet founders. And if the idea was kind of interesting to us, we would kind of fund it, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I don't think Tim, Tim Walton would be done this. I mean, my only pushback to Chamath on that would be, I just think it's a dangerous game for the government to start picking winners. You know, I wouldn't, for example, if it owns 50% of a TikTok, does... Does it disadvantage a meta as an example, right? And I do wonder, is the value capturing mechanism for the government taxes essentially, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
So the way you capture the portion of the value creation of these companies is through a tax system. And I do think we just have to be careful of the government all of a sudden picking different companies to win. You know, I do think having a good set of incentives, a level playing field, let the competitive dynamics of different companies fight each other and then capture the value through taxes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
By the way, a parallel to that would be Spectrum, right? If you think about wireless, right, kind of got built. The government auctioned off Spectrum and then allowed public, you know, private companies to kind of come and bid on it. And, you know, so there's a lot of different interesting mechanisms you can bring to that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Why do you think I waited to make my world podcast premiere for all-in? All the ankle biters called and I said, no, I'm just going to wait.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I saw the live stream. I talked to Saks last night to get the download and... You know, my takeaway just from watching, especially the executive orders was, you know, democracy in action, democracy, self-correct and dictatorships double down and to watch in real time, a country of our scale and a democracy, you know, decide to make a change.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
They're going to be clenched. Oh, wait, hold on. My mic went out. Oh, never mind. I missed it. Okay. All right. It was well said. Honestly, I don't have anything to add. You guys summed it up nicely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I think that's why we've been great for, you know, 250 plus years and will remain great. So it was fun to watch. I'm really curious to see what your takeaway was.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Okay, so there's three points I want to make here. Go. Point number one, going back to the origins of this podcast and sitting watching both public market investors and venture investors, one notable difference is I think venture investors tend to be very tribal. If you're in one tribe, you are by definition not in another. I think there's a lot of domain-specific reasons for that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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For me, as my legacy as a public market investor, I'm very comfortable being both pro-open AI and pro-Tesla and pro-X. And so I just kind of caveat that as a first point. My second point is, can we do a slight detour on Masa for one minute? And I'm curious to get your guys' opinion. But is Masa the GOAT?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Because when I started in the growth business, I met with Yuri Milner and he said, Thomas, you get in the Hall of Fame if you can have one deal that gives you a billion dollar return, i.e., you know, whatever you invest plus what you take out is a billion dollars or more. And he actually kept a tracker in his mind of who had made those deals and what share he had and etc.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So let's go to Masa for one minute. Masa is the hundred billion dollar club.
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Okay. And not only that, he's actually done it twice. He did it the first time with SoftBank and Alibaba, which at its peak was a $200 billion win. And I think he ultimately netted like 80 plus billion out of it. So that's one. He did it again with Arm that he bought for $30 and now is sitting on a gain of $135 billion. And he could have done it a third time with Nvidia if he hadn't sold.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I mean, guys.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I'll tell you what, Chamath. I am never betting against Masa, ever, because you got to give the man credit for what he's done. And- So now let's go to kind of open AI. You guys mentioned we do own some open AI. I am bullish on open AI, which I guess is now a counter against the grain kind of view. But guys, my point of view on OpenAI and the reason I'm so bullish is really kind of ChatGPT.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I do think when OpenAI gets, you know, it does have different businesses, right? It's got the model business, it has the API business, and then it has the ChatGPT business, right? And if you look at the downloads, maybe Nick, bring up the charts, but it is really interesting to watch the market share of ChatGPT versus Google, Gemini, and Grok. This is both in the U.S. and international.
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It really is a dominant kind of franchise, right? It is maintaining 80% plus market share. You know, J. Cal, if this was ride-sharing, right, we would say, wow, this company is the winner, right? So to me, I think that the quality of the ChatGPT franchise, right, I think they disclosed 300 million weekly actives, over a million enterprise users. It has become a core part of my own workflow.
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I have it on my phone. I have it on my desktop. I use it all the time. I can't even quantify the value that it brings. It's so important for what it does for me. And I do think that it just keeps getting smarter. Every query that I ask, it learns more about me. It learns more about our system. So I do think the ChatGPT franchise inside of OpenAI is one of the great
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
most successful, fastest growing kind of stories. So that's kind of the underpinning of my kind of open AI thesis. You know, on Stargate specifically, look, I think the real question to me isn't whether they have the 500 billion, right? Because we know that the 500 billion could come from equity. It could come from Masa. If you look at Gavin's tweet, by the way, he does caveat it, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Saying that assumes that Masa doesn't want to sell Arm and SoftBank, right? So I'm not sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Correct. So you have debt. I think to me, the real question, guys, is do we ultimately believe that you can get an ROI on that $500 billion? Because if you can, there will be people that will want to fund it, right? You can do a data center by data center. You can do it actually at the GPU level. So the financing is there. To me, the $500 billion doesn't scare me from an absolute number.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think the question we really have to ask ourselves is, do we believe that the market is big enough, that the opportunity is big enough, that investors can get a return on the $500 billion? So to me, that's the real question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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This is out here in some crazy... Well, I think, guys, the way these things happen, right, is you don't fund it all equity up front, right? I think these things get funded facility by facility, data center by data center across four years, right? And to Chamath's point, it's not just equity. It's site-level debt and et cetera, right? It's a complex capital structure to these things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
But look, we live also in a world, right, where I was just kind of looking at this chart, the kind of cloud CapEx chart, right? And we know that in total 2025 CapEx for the top five players in the US is going to be 312 billion, right? So that's this year, that's in one year. So we can also kind of frame this and saying, hey, does that number make any sense versus what others are spending?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's at least kind of in the order of magnitude, right? When you think about it's over four years. By the way, another really interesting kind of corollary on this point is the US internet companies spend 20x what the Chinese companies spend on capex. Really interesting as we think about our competitiveness, right? Dave, to your point, it's not just power, it's also kind of compute.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, pretty powerful that you're spending 20x what your competitor is on these kind of advanced technologies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And we've seen Landman, so we know. We know what goes on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, I'd be happy to. Dave, you're 100% right. If you think of the GPU as the atomic unit of the future and the key competitive advantage and the key ingredient, you can't power a GPU without a data center and you can't use a data center without power. I do think at the end of the day, it really comes down to the grid and it comes down to power. I think that's constraint number one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The other thing, Dave, that I think is really important is in an inflationary era, you do not want to increase or have this industry be perceived to be increasing electricity prices for the consumer. Somehow, we need to add capacity. We need to make it so the consumer doesn't go bonkers by having their bills go higher.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
And we can, Nick, run through a couple of the slides, but the data shows exactly kind of your point, Dave, which is we basically did not invest for a very long period of time in our grid, and China did. And if you keep going, we can kind of run through these a couple of times. That wasn't always the case.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
During kind of like the post-World War II boom era, during the information age, we did invest and we did a lot of it. And then suddenly in 2000, we just kind of stopped. And this is globalization you're saying is why we stopped. Correct. Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think we just outsourced a lot of our hardcore manufacturing. The USD industrialized. Correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Exactly. Or AI factories, right? And And by the way, the way to think about it is almost like a subscription business on a net ad basis, right? So this makes it even more stark, right? Because this is kind of net additions and it just kind of speaks for itself, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, I mean, you can see, I mean, since 1985, right, the delta roughly between China and the U.S., is almost, what's the quick math?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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In fact, we can't. Why don't we buy uranium? I think you can speak to that better. One of the really interesting parts, I mean, you can see, by the way, just the percentage of nuclear, it kind of needs to go higher. I don't know if you guys have been following this stock in the public market, guys, called Constellation Energy. Oh, yeah. It's a really interesting idea.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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What's interesting of what Amazon and Microsoft is, they're actually signing deals directly with these companies, right, to do what's called back behind the meter, right, types of deals. So they have direct energy access. To your point, Shamath, on the Biden administration, at the end of last year, a deal got announced
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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publicly announced that federal agencies were also contracting directly now with CEG to power some of their facilities. Even though in total the number was small, we took it and I think the market took it as a clear indication that the government, even under Biden, was acknowledging that nuclear is the best path forward.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We expect and we think just the trend generally towards nuclear energy is going to continue. It's been proven in China. It's been proven in Europe. I think it will show to be a key part of the AI arms race over the next 10, 20 years. This is to me kind of the story in one slide, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Which is if you look at basically the nuclear capacity in the US, it's basically been flat for 25 plus years, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Right. And so when Scott Besson was asked, are we in a green energy arms race? With China, he was thinking about chart number on the right, which basically shows how much nuclear China has added over that time period. I think it's pretty clear what the answer is. I think China is leading the way in that measure, and I think we need to follow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And by the way, you also can look at France, right? My home country, not known as a technology leader, but 70% of its energy, of its electricity comes from nuclear.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, it's too important, Chamath. It's 70% plus. So I think there's examples, it's doable. And I think now with AI, it's a matter of national security. National security.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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By the way, that'll dovetail into fabs, which is obviously another key component, which is a short term for semiconductor manufacturing facilities, which is another, in my opinion, key strategic area that we need to ramp up in the US.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
With Pinko, TK.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Hold on, we got to see. Who's got the biggest stack?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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One other element, guys, I think you know that we are blocking the ability of China to get access to the latest GPUs. The whole point is we don't want them to develop systems that could be used against us. But if one day China has 10x our power capacity, it won't even matter, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Because they'll just have so many more, whether they're not quite the same advanced GPUs or not, they'll just have so many more of them. Their industrial AI capacity will be so much larger that even if we have the best H100s and the latest technology that Jensen and others can provide, it won't matter. So in order to make our strategy effective, we need to be able to build this power base.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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What I'm curious, Chamath, is, you know, how much of it is a substitutive effect right away from kind of traditional media? Right. I mean, I've kind of looked at it as different ways that at least the way it's measured, you know, time spent watching television has not really increased over 20 years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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To me, it's more a reflection of I could overlay the stock chart of Fox and Comcast and CBS and just have all of those have imploded. I think people have been substituting away. I think the question then that you have to ask is, is there a reason that maybe the Netflix product is fundamentally more unsafe or detrimental to someone's health than prior broadcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm in for both, and I know we still have some great topics like Hoctan and others that I want to get to someday.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Correct. The same one is still around. I will leave you guys with a teaser. To tease the next episode when we talk about it, and I'll tell you the story, that when Hawk bought Broadcom, J. Cal, to your point, Broadcom is the pride of Orange County, founded by Henry Nicholas and Henry Samueli, kind of legends and semiconductors, a legendary name. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So it meant a lot to them that the combined company, Avago was buying Broadcom, keep the name Broadcom. And so Hawk, being who he is, got a little bit of a price discount to name the company Broadcom. To him, that was a great deal. That's who Hawk is. He's a great businessman. But what is the ticker of this particular company? AVGO. And so I said, Hawk, why is the ticker still AVGO?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And you know what he said to me? He turned to me, he said, Thomas, they forgot to negotiate for the ticker.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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3.5 billion, Chamath. Not only was it an orphan because it was a spin out of HP.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Look at this. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Is that where Intel really missed? I think Intel really missed, it's a complete abdication of corporate governance at the board level and the CEO level.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We're going to be forming an internal working group to make America the world capital in crypto under your leadership.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Back to reclaim his seat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Well, we actually did three executive orders today. So we did one on crypto, one on AI, and then one on PCaaS, which is the President's Council of Advisors for Science and Technology. The one on crypto, I guess we can start there. The main thing it does is it forms an internal working group with the goal of making the U.S. the world leader in crypto. So it's not one specific action.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's basically authorizing and creating crypto. working group with the goal of achieving that objective, right? And the members of this working group are going to be, there's me, there's the head of the SEC, the Secretary of the Treasury, and all the agencies and departments that have an interest in crypto. So we formed this working group. I'm actually chairing it, or I will be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And again, the goal here is to identify and make recommendations that the departments would then take back and they could execute. And just, again, with the goal of making America the world capital of crypto, as the president said at Davos today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, so that's crypto. Next one's AI. So the number one thing that that EO does is rescind the Biden EO, which we talked about on this podcast, I don't know how many episodes ago. But remember, it was this 100-page monstrosity of burdensome regulation. And the president had promised on the campaign trail to repeal that, and he did. So it got rescinded.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Actually, there was a master EO on Monday that contained dozens of Biden-era EOs that got mass rescinded. This one provided a little bit more detail on it. It basically said that that EO was unnecessarily burdensome. It said that we want to be the world leader in AI. In fact, it uses the word dominate. We want to basically have global dominance in AI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And similar to what we're doing on the crypto side, it directs the creation of an AI action plan. And that study will be led by three people. The National Security Advisor, who is Mike Waltz, the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy. who will be Michael Kratios as soon as he's semi-confirmed. And then the third person is me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I didn't notice that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
So the three of us are going to work together on this AI action plan. And the idea is to figure out what is it that the industry actually needs to make us number one globally in AI. So it's putting a little bit more substance behind what this R role means.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, PCAST has been around for a long time. I mean, I think it's been around for decades. And the goal of PCAST is to assemble a group of top science and technology minds to provide the president with advice. So this was already announced, but basically... Me and Michael Kratios, who I mentioned before, is going to be the director of OSTP. We're going to be co-chairing that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And this is an EO that provides the authorizing language to set that up. And then it provides some direction around what PCAST is going to do. I think some of the language that Freeberg may like is just It talks about the need to return to truth-telling in science and getting away from woke science. The AI order discusses this as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We don't want AI models to be ideologically biased, have an agenda. I don't know if it uses the word woke AI, but that's basically what it's talking about. We want AI models to be as politically unbiased as possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Sure. But I think that, you know, if you're working for the White House, there kind of needs to be a reason for you to be out there because you don't want to be making news that you're not supposed to. So in the case here today, the president signed these executive orders on crypto and AI and And they want me explaining them. So it makes sense for me to go out there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I've got an appearance on Fox Business in about an hour to talk about the EOs as well. So that might come out before this podcast comes out. But you guys are the first ones I'm actually talking to. But so there's a reason for me to come out and do it. And I think that there probably will need to be a good reason for me to come on the pod. But I'm going to try and come on the pod every chance I get.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Look, I'll be back. Don't worry. At some point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Well, the inauguration ceremony itself was really pretty spectacular. You were there in the capital, Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's funny. Jack and I kind of took our seats in the rotunda, like kind of in the back in the peanut gallery. And I thought that's where I was going to be sitting. And then somebody comes up to me and says, Mr. Sachs, we have a seat for you up front. And so they put me there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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on the day you were with the big boys yeah it was like the secretary of state the secretary of treasury and then me you know and then we were just we were behind the the trump family you may not see me because those trump kids are pretty tall but um that whole family is very tall so i kind of disappeared a little bit but in any event they put me on the dais which was really pretty crazy i wasn't wow i didn't realize that yeah
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It was a huge honor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, I mean, I was looking out and I could see the faces of people. The Democrats, as the president came out, President Biden and Kamala Harris, they didn't look too happy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I've seen some of the reaction shots, you know. I mean, that was really unique to have. I mean, I thought that that speech was really incredible because, well, first of all, it was completely consistent with everything the president had said during the campaign. And so you really felt like he has a mandate here because this is everything he said during the campaign.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It reminded me a lot of—there's that famous quote by Abraham Lincoln that public sentiment is everything. With it, you can accomplish anything. Without it, you can't do anything. And it really felt like that inauguration speech was full of substance, but it was substance that the president had delivered on the campaign trail. And so—
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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when he won this victory where he only won the presidency, he won the popular vote, he won seven out of seven swing states, he won the House, he won the Senate. It really feels like he has a mandate. And I think he reiterated that mandate in his speech. And then, of course, just the cherry on top is just that, you know, the losers just have to sit there and listen to it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, yeah, and when he's talking about the corrupt establishment that tried to put him in prison through this lawfare, I mean, he's talking about some of those people who are sitting behind him. I just thought it was remarkable, a remarkable moment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I don't know that there's that much to report, you know. I was helping with the transition. I got offered the role and decided to do it. So, I mean, look, it's not something I was expecting or planning, as you guys know. I didn't even know there was going to be such a role. But when they decided to create it and they offered it to me, and so I decided to do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You know, just one thing I should clarify just to make clear is there's still some things I can't do yet in the role because there's a whole government ethics process that you have to go through. And I'm in the midst of that process. So we've signed these EOs. It's given me
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
certain responsibilities and authorize me to do certain things and that process is going to begin as soon as i complete this um i guess you call it onboarding so just to be clear about that there's things i can do there's things i can't do i can kind of be in listening mode i can't be necessarily shaping policy yet so that's all going to be worked through over the next couple weeks all right sax i gotta ask first time in the oval what's going through your mind
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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My head was on a swivel, you know, one of those moments. You're like, you can't really believe that you're there. It does feel a little bit like you're on a movie set. I mean, it's so famous, obviously, to be in that office.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I thought it seemed about the right size. I know that one of the things people say about it is that it's smaller than you expect. I didn't feel like it was smaller, but it also didn't feel bigger. It felt... Felt like, you know, the Oval Office that you've always seen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The other people who are in there who've been in there, the staffers who've been in there a hundred or a thousand times, it's obviously it wears off and it's like just where they do their work. But yeah, I've got to admit, the first time you go in there, you're pretty, pretty awestruck. There was a post that J.D. Vance, now the vice president, had where he Actually, do you guys see this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Mike Johnson. I saw the video. Yeah, it's pretty crazy. He's walking in and he's in shock because he had never been in there. I guess, you know, I guess he became a senator a few years ago and we've had a Democrat president. So he never.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And he said that he was honored and humbled to be there. I mean, that's the way I felt as well. Those comments by the vice president resonated with me. I think probably every American would feel this way the first time you're in the Oval Office. It is pretty incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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He's been really nice to me. It's really incredible. He's been just incredible to me. And he gave me the pen. from the signing, which is pretty cool.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, it's not branded. Basically, it says the White House on one side, and it's got his signature on another. And so, look, I wasn't expecting any of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It is a Sharpie. You've seen him sign, right? So it's what, you know, I assume it's what he likes. So he gave me the pen, which is pretty incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Oh, no. I think only the president's allowed to use this pen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I thank them, and I'm back right now. I know maybe it's not enough, but... Soak it in. It would help if you guys could just do a better job on the pod so they weren't complaining all the time.
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Beautiful room. So we set up the interviews on YouTube, obviously, on X. And on the main feed. It's on the main feed. And on the main feed. And then we got a call after we did the Besson interview. And, you know, I think folks that were there from press said that was great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Howard Lutnick, who Chamath was going to be doing a meeting with on Wednesday morning, right before we were flying home, said, what if I come in early before our meeting, Chamath, and we do a sit down?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So we said, great, let's do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
So then we got to go to the White House Press Auditorium. They have a special auditorium just outside the West Wing. And you guys will recognize the stage, obviously, for many Biden press interviews. Here's the stage. And so then we did this interview with Lutnik and my God, this is going to be a barn burner of an interview when it comes out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I ran into him after he had done this interview and he was, he was excited about it. It sounds like you guys were on fire.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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He was on fire sex. I mean, this guy, I think it's going to, there's going to be so many clips out of this interview. It was incredible. It was like over an hour and a half. Wow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, I have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Let me just say one thing. I want to say that politics and policy aside, these individuals from the White House Deputy Chief of Staff, to these members of the cabinet, to all the staff that work in the West Wing were incredibly open and transparent. There were no press people intervening or involved.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It was very random, very ad hoc that we got to have these sit down conversations, and they were just so open. And I just want to say like, that was really refreshing and really incredible. And I feel really privileged to have had the opportunity to kind of sit through this. But You know, I was not expecting this on this trip at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think that when you work in the White House and you have been successful in the private sector, like a Scott Besson or Howard Ludnick or myself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Or Doug Burgum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Or Doug Burgum. Or Elon, especially. I would describe it as a money for purpose trade. You're giving up money, but the sense of purpose you feel working for the White House, for this president, is just incredible. And I think you guys kind of picked up on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And in my view, that's a trade that you should be happy to make any day of the week, because it is really an honor to work at the White House and for this president, because he actually wants to get things done on behalf of the American people. The default state of Washington is just that nothing gets done, right? You guys know that. The bureaucracy...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the entropy and the inertia just basically rule the day. And so it takes a president who, number one, has a mandate for the American people. Number two, has a tremendous sense of mission and purpose. And number three, brings tremendous energy to the job. And then I think finally assembles the right team around him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Well, I just popped in to reminisce about this trip that Chamath and Freeburg just did.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And those are the conditions under which you can actually make change, positive change for the country. And we have that. And it's kind of a once in a lifetime opportunity. If we don't get this done now, if we're not able to cut the deficit and debt now, when are we ever going to do it? This is the once in a lifetime opportunity. And I think everybody there feels that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I think everyone in the White House is really proud to be there and excited to be there. And it's fun. And part of it is that you can tell that the president, he makes his job fun because he's having a great time. He was really, I think, born to do this job. I mean, in so many ways, he just brings so much energy to it. He's indefatigable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
There's so many- He's empowering. Like everyone we met with, Sax, to your point, they've all been successful in another part of life, in business and whatnot, and they're generally post-economic people, but he's letting everyone run. We got to meet with several other members of the cabinet And they were all sharing with us that they're being given autonomy and authority. They can just run.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And I think that that's really important. If you want to bring in high impact people, you need to let them have an impact and let them do their thing. I observe that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Trip of a lifetime. Trip of a lifetime.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
We had all the besties at the White House. It was really incredible. Oh, wait.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
You saw it just in those few minutes when he's being peppered with so many decisions, so many actions. So many decisions. You just realize what a demanding job it is. And you really need a person who... just is special in that way that they're just somehow cut out for that type of job. It is very difficult.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Which was how the founding fathers operated the government originally.
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White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And give back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And shout out to Tracy as well. She's incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I think it's a good time for me to drop off. Yeah, I'll drop off and pontificate and tell us what a better job he would do. Okay. All right, Jake. We'll see you later. You can tell everyone now what a great job you would have done. Love you, Zach. Love you guys. Love you, Brian.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Ludwig was a big donor to Hillary. And then RFK was a Democrat. Tulsi was a Democrat. Trump was a Democrat. I mean, you know, a good chunk of the- Well, this is my point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
So we did a good job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Chamath did a great job, by the way, because Chamath, he had a very incredible... Chamath, by the way, I got to give you flowers for having good intuition on some of the questions you asked both Lutnik and Besant that I think revealed a little bit more about their character and who they are as people, which I was not on. I'm all about, like, what are the questions I want to ask related to policy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
an agenda, but you did a great job bringing that out in them. And that actually, I think created a lot of texture for both interviews that I was not, I was not thinking about. It's a great job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Look, I just want to say real quick, we don't do ads on the show. But we did have three sponsors that actually helped fund our DC trip and set this thing up for us. So I really want to say thank you to hymns hymns.com and for hers, Gemini and I trust everyone listening to the show, please go to the description, whatever player you're in, check them out.
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These three sponsors help make this trip happen. We're really appreciative. Please take a look at their websites. Give their products a shot. Thank you to HIMSS, Gemini, and iTrust. You guys are the best. We really appreciate it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Oh, congrats.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I think we're in a bit. Let's keep going. You're in a bit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Sorry to beep that out of you, bro. Hell yeah. You're on a roll here. Keep going.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Unbelievable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Yeah, I think this is what makes it good to have, you know, as we talked about earlier, folks with high executive function and business experience and acumen in key leadership positions in the government so they know how to drive kind of better economic outcomes, negotiating the price of a contract down and saying, in this case, give it to us for free.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
One of the things Lutnick said in the interview, which you didn't see in this clip, is that the government can actually accept four free contracts, these gratis contracts, and you don't need to go get approval to do it. So they can operate in the executive branch independently.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
That's also a big unlock, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I think the Democratic Party has split into two parties. There's the Democratic Party with beliefs, and there's the Democratic Party without beliefs. I think that the Democratic Party with beliefs is the one that's very far left, and their beliefs are fundamentally rooted in concepts of socialism, Marxism.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And they're very clear about those beliefs that traditional power structures need to be dismantled and assets and influence need to be commonly redistributed. The rest of the Democratic Party, which people call the moderate part of the party, actually don't really know what their beliefs are.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
When you talk to anyone in the Republican Party in a leadership position, you hear very clearly what their beliefs are. We saw it this week in DC. Every member of the cabinet that we met with, and there were quite a number of them, had the exact same message and the exact same set of beliefs of what this administration stands for and what they're trying to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
By the way, we camped out in Sax's office for three days, which was awesome. So we had the passes to be at the West Wing and in the Eisenhower building. That's Sax's office. And so we all kind of worked from there. And then we went and did our meetings from Sax's office. And Sax's incredible chief of staff, Tracy, escorted us around anytime we needed to go anywhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You may agree with those beliefs or you may not, but they have stated their beliefs. The problem is that because the moderates in the Democratic Party have not stated a set of beliefs, a set of objectives, a vision for the country, a vision for their party, the party is effectively being represented by this part of the party that does have beliefs, the deeply socialist Marxist beliefs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And they have basically subsumed the message. And as a result, this is why people have lost interest in the Democratic Party, because the moderate aspect has not been really clear on what their beliefs are.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
There's an opportunity for some of these moderate leaders in the Democratic Party, like Dean Phillips, like, and people may not like me saying this, but like Gavin Newsom, who I don't think is all the way over on that far left side of the spectrum, to be really clear and paint a better vision and really state the beliefs of the party and what the beliefs are that differentiate them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And those beliefs Recently, the only thing that underscores what that party stands for is we're not the other guys. We're not the Republicans. And that's it. And so people that don't like the Republicans are like, well, I don't know, because then I'm subsumed by the socialist Marxist rhetoric. So I don't know if I want to be a part of that either.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And that's why I think a lot of people feel left out. And that's why I think the recent polling data, if you pull it up on the Democrats, It's like 23% or something in this country now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Anyway, I think Tim Walz, like a lot of others, because there's no other beliefs to stand for, you end up being subsumed by the part of the Democratic Party that does have beliefs and you don't have anything else to say to state and to show what you're for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Let me give you a piece of advice to the Democratic Party leadership that might be listening. The advice I would give you is basically take away the opportunity for the distinction that the Republicans have right now, which is a more efficient government, a more fair government where money isn't wasted, where your taxpayer dollars aren't being destroyed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The Democratic Party has an opportunity to stand up and say, we don't want to have things like regulatory capture or this pork or inside stuff going on. They have an opportunity to make that the core set of beliefs that still aligns with reducing government and increasing efficiency in government. Efficiency in government should not be a party issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
By allowing the Republicans to say we're for efficient government, it implies that the Democrats now to be opposite of that are saying we're for inefficient government. And if the Democrats want to win this, they can actually take that message and say, you know what, we're for more efficient government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And the way we're going to do it is get rid of things like regulatory capture and inside deals and all the other sort of stuff. It may, you know, that may not kind of go, but there's an opportunity for the Democrats, I think, to really stand up and take the country in the direction that we all as Americans needed to go to, which is to have a sustainable federal government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And that's gonna require some degree of fiscal conservatism and action, but they could take a different point of view on how they do it. And they could have core beliefs around that.
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White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Well, I think we should talk about the price they paid, and we should talk about the strategic rationale and how others are going to respond.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Yeah, I mean, just to put it in context, right, Google's cloud revenue is about 40 billion a year, and Microsoft and Amazon's are both kind of plus or minus a little bit around 100 billion a year. And so Google has kind of been, as we know, lagging a little bit in the cloud market. The thing about kind of enterprise sales
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
is there's a common strategy, which is you kind of land with a beachhead and then you kind of expand from there with additional products and services. This has been the reason so many enterprise software companies over time from Oracle to Salesforce to Microsoft have been acquisitive and can make acquisitions very synergistic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
What that means is you can acquire a new product or a new service and then sell it into your install base or acquire the customers and then cross sell your existing products or services into their install base. And so you can increase the overall revenue by putting the two together and combining sales teams and being able to offer a combined offering.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And so the theory here, and I think this is something I don't understand well enough, is that security has become such a kind of top
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
requirement and product category that it now effectively enables a beachhead type model to be successful, meaning you can cross sell the security into all of your existing customers, or there's enough new customers that Google might be acquiring from the Wiz acquisition that they can now bring new GCP services to and cross sell into. Now, to figure out how this actually has to make sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Well, the portico connects the West Wing to the president's residence. Tracy Sachs' chief of staff escorted us from the West Wing after we did an amazing tour of the West Wing over to the residence. I don't know if we were really supposed to do it, but she has full access. So we were able to kind of go on the walk. And then we took a walk around the residence and saw the rooms.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
So Google's ROIC is about 30%. That means that when they make an investment, a CapEx investment or a capital investment, they expect to see about 30% of incremental profit per year come back at some point from that capital investment. The capital investment they're making here, again, this doesn't hit their income statement, goes on their balance sheet. It gets marked mostly as goodwill.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
So Google's gonna have a 32 billion move from cash down to goodwill. So now they've got this asset on their balance sheet and they've got to make an incremental $10 billion a year profit. So you kind of got to do the math. $10 billion a year of incremental profit against $40 billion of cloud revenue and against $1 billion of Wiz revenue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
There's a lot to be kind of built here to make this make financial sense. So then it becomes, okay, well, that's a really hard one to kind of think that they're going to get there very soon. But remember, Google's made some investments.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
But this is the entrance to the West Wing right here. So when you come in for meetings, administrators, so we walk in, Pam Bondi's on our way out. We got to meet Pam Bondi. I mean, it really is amazing. Like members of the cabinet are coming in and out of this door. Members that work in the West Wing are coming in. Or leaders. Yeah. And then we saw like leaders coming in.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
$399.
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White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
It's so small. It's a little door off the side. The whole West Wing is disarmingly small. You can walk for 15 seconds between the Oval Office and pretty much everywhere else in the West Wing. It really is very tight. And Elon's got an office in there that we got to kind of drop in and say hi to. The president, obviously, Chamath went over to the Oval. Then there's the Situation Room.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
We've never been in a situation where in 100 days, a federal government is setting out to cut their spending by a trillion dollars, which has a significant effect, a recessionary effect on the economy, because there's less federal dollars flowing out, which goes as revenue into various businesses and income for a lot of people that are employed as contractors or directly by federal government agencies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
That's right. No, $3.99.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
coupled with, for the first time in 100 years, a significant change in the policy for tariffs for goods flowing into the United States, and whether that will reduce spending by consumers or drive up the cost of products by consumers. And we talked extensively about both of these issues with Besant and Lutnick in D.C. this week.
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White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And if I'm the Fed, I don't really have a great proxy historically for saying when this was done in the past, here's what the effect would be on GDP. Here's what the effect would be on inflation. Here's what the effect is going to be on inflation. employment.
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White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
In fact, folks like Glutnick are making the case that the current measure of GDP is probably not even correct, the way we measure it, the way we count it. And so the traditional economist's point of view on making rate adjustments as a function of economic contraction or growth may be wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
So I think there are quite a lot of these kind of confounding factors that the Fed is in a very wait and see mode. What I would look to is the bond market, which also seems to be in a kind of wait and see mode. So remember right before the election, The bond market traded the 10-year up so that rates went down to about 3.65%. About a month ago, the 10-year was at 4.5%, and today it's at 4.22%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so in the last month, we've seen rates on the 10-year decline by about a quarter point or about 30 basis points. And so the bond market is giving some kind of opening to the Fed saying, look, we expect that this is gonna be deflationary, this is gonna be recessionary. We are expecting you to cut rates to the Fed. And so that's what the bond market is saying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And now I think we're going to start to wait for the reports that are going to start to come out that are going to show the impact. I don't think we're going to know immediately. So I think the first hundred days of this presidency and this administration's actions are going to be pretty telling on what's going to happen going forward in terms of the effect on employment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
on inflation and on GDP contraction or growth. And then I think the market will know how to handicap those numbers in the future based on actions by the administration. Right now, we're still in a like, I don't know when you put all these things together or what it does. And it's a lot happening real fast. And so wait and see.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I don't know if they're not communicating it well. Besant did that. It's the effect that it will have ultimately on the economy and over what timescale. That's what's uncertain right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I mean, everything is within a couple of steps of everything. And it really is. You're in these kind of historic moments as you walk through this. You just feel the resonance of everything that you've heard about and seen and all the history and legacy to everything. And it's just all right there, compact in one space. You're just overwhelmed. It really was overwhelming for me emotionally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
It was overwhelming intellectually. You just kind of walk around and You know, it's just, you're part of it. And it was so, I was telling Shamad, it was so emotional for me at the end of the day to just be like, man, like, you come to this country, you come to America, you know, from wherever you came from, and anyone can find their way into this historic space. That's the beauty of this country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
SpaceX was able to rescue the two astronauts that were stranded by the Boeing Starliner debacle nine months ago. We talked about it on the show. You can go back and
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Episode 192. And so having spent far more on the Starliner program than on the Crew Dragon program, the Starliner program is gone now. It's basically done. And the Crew Dragon program has now done 16 crewed flights to space, 11 for NASA, four private commercial flights. and continues to perform. So congratulations to the SpaceX team on making it to ISS and bringing the astronauts home.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Another successful mission for SpaceX.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And I, it never really hit me until we were in this moment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Then I kind of really got it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
His office is well-placed because through that window behind us is the gaggle. There's this lawn out on the White House called Pebble Beach and all the networks have tents there and they'll do recordings with White House officials and the White House will be in the background. It's not like a green screen or an LED. It's the actual White House will be in the background.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
This is basically what I think is going to end up being the story over the next couple of years is the space race between effectively SpaceX's platform and technology versus China, which has effectively ripped off SpaceX as this is kind of being described here in this article. So you can kind of take a look at the long March nine rocket is what they call it.
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Fully reusable first stage powered by 30 of their particular engines. which is comparable to SpaceX's first stage being powered by 33 Raptor engines, also fueled with methane and liquid oxygen, each with a thrust of about 280 tons compared to the Chinese at 200 tons. This is kind of a very kind of equivalent design.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Yeah, so this is the Long March 9. This is their super heavy lift rocket that they kind of first started talking about, call it a decade ago. The rocket has three stages, solid motors. They've recalibrated the design and it effectively has now kind of become a clone of Starship. And so this whole system is going to be the big race.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And as we know, the way the Chinese operate when it comes to kind of industrialization is they can move fast, they can move big, they can move heavy, they can dedicate resources, they can dedicate an entirely vertically integrated supply chain to achieving an objective. So this will end up being kind of, I think, the big race over the next couple of years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I think they've got a lot of resources at their fingertips. Yeah. You can kind of say that, but I don't know, you know, a lot of people use slave labor in China as kind of a hand wavy way of describing their competitive advantage. But I think this is really important. China has actually much more of an advantage in automation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And so if you look at many Chinese factories that everyone assumes are cheap because they have cheap slave labor, which is kind of the Western general kind of media perception of what goes on over there. There's actually a lot of automation and engineering that's gone into building these systems that allow them to have much higher throughput at much lower cost.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And I think that this is a really kind of key point that the Chinese kind of industrial base and their manufacturing base is so superior to the United States in this moment in time that the U.S. has to figure out a way to build its manufacturing base up to be competitive in an age of automation, not on a kind of labor to labor system, but on a system of production to system of production basis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And so this is really where we are lagging deeply as a country. And it is part of, you saw J.D. Vance's speech this week on revitalizing kind of manufacturing in the United States, but it has to be advanced manufacturing. It's not just about opening a warehouse and putting a bunch of-
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It means both. But it's about smarter systems. It's about designs on how you do manufacturing. It's about using new things like 3D printing, like automation, coupled with great labor, coupled with great people working. But it's about designing entirely new ways of doing manufacturing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
That's why it's all set up there and it's called Pebble Beach. And then there's an area, I think they call it like the sticks, which is basically just like a paved area where White House officials can go out there and they get swarmed by all the media asking him questions. That's called the gaggle. So he can keep an eye on everything that's happening
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And we've stalled out over the last three decades in the United States as we globalized and we handed off all manufacturing to the East. and the United States basically just imported manufactured goods while they invested in all of the infrastructure to deliver advanced manufacturing at scale. And so we've got a lot of catching up to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Otherwise, China will get ahead of us in any product faster than we will ever be able to kind of stay ahead of the game on. And I think we're seeing that in the space race now, and it's definitely worth taking note that this is kind of one core example of this advantage that they've developed for themselves.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
with the media through that window in his office.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
That's on the other side. Yeah, it's on the other side. But a lot of those reporters will just move over there when they have the option to do that. But like when you see Caroline Leavitt who's the White House press secretary or Stephen Miller who's the deputy chief of staff for policy, they'll come out and all of a sudden they're speaking in a microphone. It'll seem impromptu.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Getting back on track, I'll just give a quick shout out as well to Firefly, the Blue Ghost. Lunar Lander landed on March 2nd, lasted on the lunar surface for 14 days, launched on January 15th. They are launching two additional missions, Mission 2 and Mission 3. Mission 2 is going to launch in 2026.
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Back to the Moon 28 for Mission 3, all of which are doing kind of geologic surveying of the lunar surface. Obviously, the long-term goal here is can we establish a base on the moon?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
You do. You always have, actually. Would you guys be willing to go to the moon for a week? Would that be something you guys would be interested in?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
100%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I would go for a month. What about a day? Like just a lunar day? Like a lunar picnic?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
A little picnic and then you come back?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Nick, can you make an image of Chamath on the moon drinking wine? Can you figure out a way to do that, please? Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
There'll be a lot of reporters. That's usually the sticks and that's the White House gaggle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
How much is a sweater, Timoth?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And I don't think I've ever seen a workforce more happy. Like you get there and the energy and the intensity, it's very much like the TV show West Wing. There's just this constant momentum. Every day you live a whole lifetime and everyone is just like energized and And I was talking to Sax's chief of staff, and she's like, you just never calm down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
All right, now we're back, everybody.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
It's the Coca-Cola Freestyle machine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
You're never like, there's never a dull moment here. And that's why everyone kind of has this grin on their face. They're just so happy to be doing this work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I think that's well said, Chamath. And every day there's something new. You know, every day you discover something new. One day it's the Navy mess where, you didn't mention that, but we got a chance to eat lunch. Oh yeah, cut over to that, Nick. Do you have a photo of that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Yeah, we had lunch there. It was incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Did you get a photo of the burgers? I did.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
They must have used some sort of grill tool to... burn the seal of the president of the United States onto the burgers. I think it's a nice touch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
By the way, you want to know something? They didn't do it on the veggie burger. What does that say?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Right. There's a little corridor off of the West Wing lobby, which, by the way, like you said, if you're hanging out in the West Wing lobby, you're going to run into all sorts of interesting people. But you go down this little passageway. It's so small. The header of the door is so small that Sri Ram, you know, does AI policy. He's 6'6".
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
He almost concussed himself once because he hit his head at the top of the door. I think the door frame is about 6'2", is the clearance. Maybe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
He literally has to duck his head every time he walks by. But in any event, if you walk to the end of that passageway, There's a little kiosk to get a coffee or you turn the other way and you're in the situation room. I mean, it's really.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Yeah, actually, yeah. Well, go ahead, Jamal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
By the way, so we're hanging out in the White House and we got the random, it was like one o'clock in the afternoon, Chamath, on Monday.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
when they said hey would you guys like to sit down with secretary of the treasury scott besant and so then special bonus episode they're like at 5 30 today we had a dinner at 7 7 30. so it was pretty tight but we were like yes that sounds good so then we got to go over to treasury later in the afternoon we had a camera guy come and set up so yeah here's this this beautiful room in treasury i forgot the name of that remember
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Well, I do think you're right in the sense that in the early days when Trump was talking about tariffs, initially everyone was like, oh, my God, he's going to use tariffs. He's unpredictable. And then the narrative became he's using it as a negotiating tactic. The problem is, just like in poker, once everyone knows that there is this kind of action, it's exploitable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And so this is now kind of an exploitable mode of negotiation where everyone now assumes he's just trying to negotiate. So no one actually takes him seriously. The question now is the response going to be that he's going to be serious about it or is he actually exploitable? And you saw what China's response was.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I kind of view China as like AI, like stuff goes into China, the AI processes it and it comes back out. China is like, obviously the way they're, kind of structured, you have very little psychosocial bias like you do with other democratic governments. It's very systematic. It's systematically processed. Every piece of data is systematically processed. Every action is systematically processed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And so I think when you look at how the Chinese ambassador responded to Trump on Twitter a few weeks ago, where they're like, you want war? We'll give you war. This is a hot war, a cold war, whatever you want. We've never seen that from an ambassador to the United States president before done on Twitter like this, let alone the Chinese ambassador.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
So I think it says a lot about how the Chinese AI is processing the Trump negotiating tactic or the Trump positioning statements on tariffs, which indicates that there may be now, I mean, we can talk about what game theory optimal play might be in this kind of poker game, what's gonna come next, but there's a real assessment that they've made on how far he is willing to take it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
They've got a conclusive statement and they believe that this is the fastest way to kind of win their negotiating position. But it says a lot about where this is all going. Everyone now understands or views this as an exploitable moment which unfortunately means that tariffs may not work or they're actually going to have to stick, which can be really ugly. Yeah, it could be painful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Could be painful for everybody.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
That's the key. If we keep the tariffs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I don't believe it. I don't believe it. I'll find you guys a great study about veganism and libido. Is that right? Yeah, very impressive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
We talked about this last week. If you cut the budget, then it can be net neutral. That's part of what they said. Got it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Let your winners ride. Rain Man, David Sasson.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
By the way, can I just tell you how much I hate cauliflower? Everywhere I go, that is the dish. I had it for dinner last night.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Yeah, it's the main course in restaurants.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
There's two things they offer you, portobello mushroom and roasted cauliflower.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Are you an impossible meat guy? No, I don't like that stuff. It's gross. Not for me. Okay. By the way, you guys want to hear a quick science corner? So, you know how we talked about Yamanaka factors?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Wow. He's like, yeah, I don't care.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Let me hit this real quick because I know we're never going to get to it because you guys just bullshit around talking about politics for an hour.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Hit us, hit us. You know how you can use Yamanaka factors? We talked about these to basically turn a cell into a stem cell, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And that's what goes on in the lab. Andrew, you're familiar with the Yamanaka factor research.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Let me give you guys, I did an analysis. I wasn't sure if I should put it out, but I'll tell you guys the numbers. The U.S. Social Security program is meant to be kind of the retirement program for folks that don't have access to private retirement accounts. Okay. And this program was set up in the 1930s after the Great Depression.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And there's a trust fund, the OASDI, which is the fund that they invest the capital. So every year we all put money in with our Social Security taxes out of our paychecks, goes in there, and it gets invested. You know what it gets invested in?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
It gets invested in one thing, U.S. Treasuries, which have averaged about 4.8% return since the beginning of the program per year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Meanwhile, the S&P has been averaging 11%. So here's the math. If in 1971, which was the year that we went off the gold standard in the United States, If we invested the Social Security Trust Fund in the S&P, the balance of the Social Security Trust Fund today would be $15 trillion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
That would be roughly one-third of the value of the total S&P 500, which would be jointly owned by all Americans who took their capital. Now, here's what's f***ed up. What's fucked up is that the middle-class people who had access to private retirement accounts benefited by buying the S&P 500, and the wealthy were able to access it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
So all of the equity value that accrued from American enterprise and the prosperity of the American system accrued to the people that had access to the private accounts. Meanwhile, the people that only had access to the public accounts got stuck owning treasuries.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Today, the Social Security Trust Fund has $2.7 trillion balance, and based on the outflows and inflows, it's going to go bankrupt in 2032. That means Social Security is either going to get cut or the Fed's going to print a ton of money to keep Social Security benefits.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Wow. So I did the math. If you assume that the S&P 500 continues to grow at 10.5% a year, on average, there's ups and downs. And sure, there could be basically drawdowns and all these other sorts of things. But here's an important point. We could put about $500 billion in the trust fund today, and it will not go bankrupt again. And it will continue to grow every year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And then all Americans have participation in American enterprise. And importantly, this becomes the world's largest sovereign wealth fund ever. You don't need a separate sovereign wealth fund. We already have one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
It's called the Social Security Trust Fund. And what we've done is we've totally mismanaged it. And I went back to try and understand why this is the case. Why have we only ever bought treasuries? Early on, the U.S. needed someone to loan money. So they basically forced the citizens to loan the government money in the form of treasuries.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
But today, the Social Security Trust Fund owns only less than 10%, about 8% of the total treasury bonds outstanding. The rest are owned by the Fed and foreign investors and private investors and others that want to own it. So why are we forcing all the American citizens to participate?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And we're discouraging access. So basically we've created, through the social security system, we've created the deep inequity we see in this country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If instead we had allowed the social security system to invest in the S&P 500, to buy American enterprises, to fund American businesses, then every American would be wealthy and that middle class that uniquely participated by basically arbitraging the market where they forced the treasury bond yields on the poor and they got to take access to the equity yields would have not happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
They had a device. They brought the IRAs and they were able to participate with brokerage accounts and buying the market. But what we can do right now is we can fix it. And here's an important point. People will then argue, oh, well, what if there's a down year or two down years in a row? You know what? We're already going to be printing money to make up the hole in Social Security.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
We're not going to let Social Security go bankrupt. We're not going to let it dry out. So we're already going to print money to make the Social Security hole. So if that's the case, we can create a backstop for Social Security. We're going to have to do it either way, but we might as well take on the bank. No, no, no, Chamath, you were going to say something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
He did Sudoku in under a minute. Sudoku. Okay, nevermind. We'll come back to the science world at the end of the show. Give us more material. So the interesting work going on right now is you basically can take any cell from a person's body, turn it into a stem cell, and then turn that stem cell ultimately into an egg cell. So you no longer need to go harvest eggs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And to your point, imagine logging in. Like we've all had, I'm assuming, a 401k account. And I remember how exciting it is to log in. And CB Count. And Schultz, I want to say something that's really important. Like you talk about us people, like, you know, earlier on the commentary, which is something I hear a lot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
My first job was making $4.25 an hour cleaning toilets in a pool hall in upstate New York. Chamath has similar stories. J-Cal has similar stories. Like any of us that participated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Yeah. And I had like, and then the worst part about my job in the pool hall was that then the manager made me go play poker at his house and he took all the money back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But it was so exciting in my career, in my life to be able to like go from that moment to the moment where I had a 401k and I could log in and I could see the businesses that I owned. And I understood that. And I saw the value go up and I got to participate in that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
imagine if every american when when you get your social security statement today all it tells you is a dollar amount and how much you're going to get in the future imagine if you logged in and you got to see all the businesses you own a piece of every single day you feel connected every single day lighting a tesla we can fix this and by the way we can solve both the sovereign wealth fund question and the social security trust fund question every dollar that's going into these sovereign wealth fund ideas or if they come to fruition or in my opinion and obviously i haven't spoken
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
about this, but the crypto fund and all this other sort of stuff, every dollar of that should go into the Social Security Trust Fund. And that Social Security Trust Fund should be for the benefit of all Americans, and it should be equities, it should be ownership, it should be participation in what the American dream enables. How about a blending portfolio?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
The market dream enabled us all to succeed, and it should enable everyone else to participate in shares and equity in American enterprise that can come to market. So it's not about $1,000 when you're born.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's about an ongoing participation, putting your money in, and having that money allocated in a way that smart and wealthy Americans get to allocate it, which is into owning shares and businesses. That's it. Chelsea. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
But like, I, you know, we see comments on YouTube, like, Oh, you guys. And I'm like, dude, I remember like, It feels like yesterday when I was in frigging debt, I graduated college with a bunch of debt and I went and like found a job and worked my ass off. And I was working 20 hour days and never slept. And like, you know, it wasn't easy. I mean, I feel like very emotional about this right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Sorry. Hang on. Um, it was hard. Yeah. It was hard. It wasn't easy, bro.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
None of us inherited. None of us inherited. We, we, we came to American and to see the joy, to, To see what we all benefited from, I'm getting emotional about this, but it's like- Well, it's because the American dream's broken. We gotta fix it, Andy. Fix it for us right now. To have people talk about it as if being successful and getting there is a crime. No, no, no, no, no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And so you don't need to actually go get the eggs from the woman. You can make eggs from skin cells, for example.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
So in the next couple of years, there's a few little technical breakthroughs that are happening right now that will enable this, where fertility clinics may end up just taking a little bit of your skin cell, creating stem cells, creating egg cells, and that's how we're going to end up doing IVF in the future at any age. So you can make eggs at any age, and you can ultimately...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Kamal feels that way too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
He's getting excited right now if you're saying it. He's going to start crying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I think really importantly, you know, today, just to give you guys some other statistics. 60% of a middle class household's net worth is in their home. Only 10% of their net worth is in owning the S&P 500 in index funds or whatever in their retirement accounts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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produce offspring at any age. You don't need to actually have active healthy eggs. And this... You like that one, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And so by creating this American dream around housing and allowing the federal government to provide loans on housing, we've increased the cost of housing. We've created a very destructive housing bubble in the sense that it has reduced people's exposure to participation in productive value creation. And that's through the ownership of businesses. Instead, we've stored our net worth in a house.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And in order to keep the economy and the social structure stable, we've created policies that allow the continuation of the growth in the value of houses so people feel like their net worth is incrementing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And that's unfortunately very unnatural.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And by the way, there's a lot of other policies like this. Two days later, you have to resign. If you do the true kind of macro analysis as an investor, you should probably have about 20% of your net worth in the US in real estate, not 60%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so we need to give people the ability and we need to think about all the follow on a trickle effect of creating a set of laws, a set of policies that basically incentivize almost all of your net worth to go into a single asset, your home. And what that then means in the fact that we have to keep pumping up the value of that home.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And we have to have a system in order for people to feel like they're getting ahead, keep inflating, and eventually people can't afford homes. And that's where we are today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I signed up for an E-Trade account in college because I saw that TV show called Bull. Do you remember that TV show? It was about investment banking during the dot-com bubble. No one knows that show. And I was like, man, Wall Street is so cool. I want to learn about stocks because I was an astrophysics major.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I didn't know what I was going to do after I was going to go to graduate school or whatever. And then I got caught up in the dot-com bubble and I started reading the Wall Street Journal every day. I would take it down to the frigging plaza and I would read the journal at school during lunch. And I tried to learn about tech and business and markets because I've always been a tech guy.
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And I'm like, man, there's all these startups and this is how the markets work. So I set up an E-Trade account. I put some money in it and I bought some stocks. And I read the investor business daily on what stocks to buy. They had a rating. And I bought those stocks and they went up and I'm like, man, this is awesome. Like, I love owning stocks. And that kind of kicked me off.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then I got an investment banking job after college and it totally changed my career trajectory. I was like, I want to go work in the tech industry and work in business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But by the way, sorry, let me just say one thing. What you asked is a really important question. I just realized this, Andrew, because my interest in that stock market thing at that time actually changed my career trajectory. And it really reset what I was going to do with my life to get involved in business and go work in the tech industry as opposed to work in science as a researcher.
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And that was a really big shift for me. So it gave me that kind of a feeling of like, oh, I got to learn more. And then that kind of changed my career. Sorry, go ahead, Shema.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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When a woman is born, she has all her eggs in her body. And as she ages, those eggs get depleted. And eventually she doesn't have very good viable eggs left over. So this gets around that problem of not having viable eggs. We can be very selective about the eggs. And so there's a future here in the next couple of years
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
where fertility becomes a simpler, hopefully easier and more widely available service than it is today, where it's really challenging technically and you've got to go do something that's invasive and you've got to hope that there's good healthy eggs and there's a good number of eggs and so on and so forth. So really interesting science. This is awesome. This is awesome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I was such a tech nerd growing up, but I never thought about the business of technology. And then the startup boom happened. And you got this bull show on TV. And I'm like, man, this is so much more exciting than sitting in a frigging lab doing mathematical modeling where I was like pulling my frigging hair out. I'm like, I want to get after that. And the rest is history, you know?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Any dream is possible, J. Cal. You could pull it off. I know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
All right. We're still dreamers, by the way. Really important. Everyone should know that. I think like there's no, the thing that a lot of people assume, this is the true about humans in general, is there's an end to the rainbow, but there isn't. You ride the rainbow till you die. That's it. And there's always hope. There's always dreams. There's always more. And it doesn't stop.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So it makes it fun.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I'm a little hungover today. I started drinking at 10 a.m.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Oh, I wasn't.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Shane Gillis was there. Shane Gillis was there, but he was big time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
You just signed a Netflix deal, right? I mean, you did the show. Yeah. Yeah. We're actually doing the show in Austin tonight where we're going to talk with some folks about this general concept where you start out as kind of an independent, say whatever you want. You're totally free. It's your own platform. It's your own voice. And then you go sign a deal with another platform.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Like, are you now, you know, do you find it hard to trade the money for whatever might come along with that? There's restrictions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Oh, you made fun of the toilet paper industry. I got it. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
What the fuck?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
We'll let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Rain Man, David Sack.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
We need to get merch. He's already...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Look, I think the podcast was brilliant. I think when I watched it, I was hooked because there are two things that I think were critical in how he runs it. Firstly is he is showing for the first time, I think that I have ever seen a Democrat do or a Republican in modern politics, active listening to the other side. It seems so crazy, right?
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that this is some sort of special event and special concept, but this active listening moment where you see a politician, it totally breaks down the walls where you immediately feel on guard or on offense against that person. Because if someone's actively listening to you, you actually feel like you're on the same side somehow and you're trying to come to a conclusion together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And so what that does is it invites the person on the other side, in this case, the audience, the listener, to be with Gavin, part of the kind of coming together. The second thing I think he did that's really brilliant is so much of the modern political bimodalism where you're in one camp or the other means that everything is a one or a zero. You know, Andrew talked about this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
We're all generally, I think, none of us would consider ourselves political party affiliates. We are all generally people that like to think for ourselves on a topic or an issue, and we don't care about what party is associated. But the way modern politics has evolved is you don't debate the topics, you debate the one or the zero because of what the party says.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
My party says this is the position, therefore I'm a one and you're a zero. And the other side says, I'm the one, you're the zero, meaning everything has to be binary. I'm completely right, you're completely wrong. And I think what Gavin has done is he's shown that these are not ones and zeros. They're 80-20 or 60-40 or 55-45. And he's willing to acknowledge that. He's showing that, you know what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
We might be only 45% right. And on so many topics, the Democratic Party has ended up slightly wrong. They're 45-55. It's not that they're a zero or a one. They're slightly off on taxes. They're slightly off on social issues. And they're off just enough that they lost the election. They're off just enough that they lost the House.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Welcome back anytime, Naval. Thanks, man.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Sorry, David. Let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Rain Man, David Sacks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I worry a lot about this like iPad situation. I see my kids on an iPad and it's almost like, unless they're doing an interactive project, if they end up watching... Says the guy who has a video game theme in the background.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Well, I mean, I feel like watch, but do they watch shows, Naval?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Well, no, I mean, I'm not criticizing the iPad. I was obviously on a computer since I was four years old, so I totally get it. And I think the question for me is like, but I didn't have the ability to play a 30 minute show and then play the next 30 minute show and the next 30 minute show and then sit there for two hours and just have a show playing the whole time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I was interacting on the computer and doing stuff and building stuff, which was a little different for me from a use case perspective.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Let's talk about some real issues. This is not a parenting show. A parenting show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
What are you implying there, J. Cal?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
No. Or that he's smart. Both of those things. The vice president wrote the speech, or at least directed all of it. So the ideas came from him. I'm not going to take any credit whatsoever for this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Maybe you could talk about... Yes, I agree it was on point. I think it was a very well-crafted and well-delivered speech.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I used to play a lot of a game called Sim Earth on my Macintosh LC way back in the day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Well, I think that the vice president, You knew he was going to deliver an important speech as soon as he got up there and said that I'm here to talk about not AI safety, but AI opportunity. And to understand what a bracing statement that was and really almost like a shot across the bow, you have to understand the history and context of these events.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
For the last couple of years, the last couple of these events have been exclusively focused on AI safety. The last in-person event was in the UK at Bletchley Park, and the whole conference was devoted to AI safety. Similarly, the European AI regulation obviously is completely preoccupied with safety and trying to regulate away safety risks before they happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Similarly, you had the Biden EO, which was based around safety, and then you have just the whole media coverage around AI. which is preoccupied with all the risks from AI. So to have the vice president get up there and say right off the bat that there are other things to talk about in respect to AI besides safety risks, that actually there are huge opportunities there, was a breath of fresh air.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And like I said, kind of a shot across the bow. And yeah, you could almost see some of the Eurocrats They needed their fainting couches after that. Trudeau looks like his dog just died. So I think that was just a really important statement right off the bat to set the context for the speech, which is AI is a huge opportunity for all of us. Because really, that point just has not been made enough.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
What games did you play growing up, J. Cal? Actually, I'm kind of curious. Did you ever play video games?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And it's true, there are risks. But when you look at the media coverage, and when you look at the dialogue that the regulators have had around this. They never talk about the opportunities. It's always just around the risk. So I think that was a very important corrective. And then, like you said, he went on to say that the United States has to win this AI race. We want to be the gold standard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
We want to dominate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Yeah. And by the way, that language about dominating AI and winning the global race, that is in President Trump's executive order from week one. So this is very much elaborating on the official policy of this administration. And the vice president then went on to say that he specified how we would do that, right? We have to win some of these key building block technologies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
We want to win in chips. We want to win in AI models. We want to win in applications. He said, we need to build, we need to unlock energy for these companies. And then most of all, we just need to be supportive towards them as opposed to regulating them to death. And he had a lot to say about the risk of overregulation, how often it's big companies that want regulation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
He warned about regulatory capture, which our friend Bill Gurley would like. And he said that so basically having less regulation can actually be more fair, can create a more level playing field for small companies as well as big companies. And then he said to the Europeans that we want you to be partners with us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
We want to lead the world, but we want you to be our partners and benefit from this technology that we're going to take the lead in creating. But you also have to be a good partner to us. And then he specifically called out the overregulation that Europeans have been engaged in. He mentioned the Digital Services Act, which has acted as like a speed trap for American companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
It's American companies who've been. over-regulated and fined by these European regulations because the truth of the matter is that it's American technology companies that are winning the race. And so when Europe passes these onerous regulations, they fall most of all on American companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And he's basically saying, we need you to rebalance and correct this because it's not fair and it's not smart policy and it's not going to help us collectively win this AI race. And that kind of brings me just to the last point is I don't think he mentioned China by name, but clearly
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
He talked about adversarial countries who are using AI to control their populations, to engage in censorship and thought control. And he basically painted a picture where it's like, yeah, you could go work with them or you could work with us. And we have hundreds of years of shared history together. We believe in things like free speech, hopefully, and we want you to work with us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
But if you are going to work with us, then you have to cooperate and we have to create a reasonable regulatory regime.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Let me find one of those pictures.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Nick, go ahead. Pull up Rico Suave here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I think that there's this kind of big definition of social balance right now on what I would call techno-optimism and techno-pessimism. Generally, people sort of fall into one of those two camps. Generally speaking, techno-optimists
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I would say are folks that believe that accelerating outcomes with AI, with automation, with bioengineering, manufacturing, semiconductors, quantum computing, nuclear energy, et cetera, will usher in this era of abundance by creating leverage, which is what technology gives us. Technology will make things cheaper and it will be deflationary and it will give everyone more. So it creates abundance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Instead of playing video, here I am. No, that's in the 80s.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
The challenge is that people who already have a lot worry more about the exposure to the downside than they desire the upside. And so, the techno pessimists are generally like the EU and large parts, frankly, of the United States,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
are worried about the loss of X, the loss of jobs, the loss of this, the loss of that, whereas countries like China and India are more excited about the opportunity to create wealth, the opportunity to create leverage, the opportunity to create abundance for their people. GDP per capita in the EU, $60,000 a year. GDP per capita in the United States, like 82,000.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
But GDP per capita in India is 2,500 and China is 12,600. There's a greater incentive in those countries to manifest upside than there is for the United States and the EU who are more worried about manifesting downside. And so it is a very difficult kind of social battle that's underway.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Nick, help out your uncle. Yeah, here he is out slaying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I do think like over time, those governments and those countries and those social systems that embrace these technologies are going to become more capitalist. And they're going to require less government control and intervention in job creation, the economy, payments to people, and so on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And the countries that are more techno pessimistic are unfortunately going to find themselves asking for greater government control, government intervention and markets, governments creating jobs, government making payments to people, government's effectively running the economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
My personal view, obviously, is that I'm a very strong advocate for technology acceleration, because I think in nearly every case in human history, when a new technology has emerged, we've largely found ourselves assuming that the technology works in the framework of today or of yesteryear.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
the automobile came along and no one envisioned that everyone in the United States would own an automobile and therefore you would need to create all of these new industries like mechanics and car dealerships, roads, all the people servicing building roads and all the other industry that emerged. And it's very hard for us to sit here today and say, okay, AI is going to destroy jobs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
What's it going to create and be right? I think we're very likely going to be wrong, whatever estimations we give. The area that I think is most underestimated is the large technical projects that seem technically infeasible today that AI can unlock. For example, habitation in the oceans.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Like it's very difficult for us to envision like creating cities underwater and creating cities in the oceans or creating cities on the moon or creating cities on Mars or finding new places to live. Those are like technically people might argue, oh, that sounds stupid. I don't want to go do that. But at the end of the day, like human civilization will drive us to want to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
But those technically are very hard to pull off today. But AI can unlock a new set of industries to enable those transitions. So I think we really get it wrong when we try and assume the technology as a transplant for last year or last century. And then we kind of become techno pessimists because we're worried about losing what we have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
So you're a little bit of a... No, I have no techno pessimism whatsoever. I try and point out why the other side is acting the way they are.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And what I'm trying to highlight is I think that that framework is wrong. I think that that framework of trying to transplant new technology onto the old way of things operating is the wrong way to think about it. And it creates this, you know, because of this manifestation about worrying about downside, it creates this fear that creates regulation like we see in the EU.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And as a result, China's GDP will scale while the EU's will stagnate if that's where they go. That's my assessment or my opinion on what will happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
in foreign countries by much cheaper labor that's not held to the same standards, the same minimum wage or the same union rules or the same safety standards that American labor is and has a huge cost advantage, then you're creating wage pressure for American workers. And he's opposed to that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And I think that is an important point because I think the way that the media or neoliberals like to portray this argument is that somehow MAGA's resistance to unlimited immigration is somehow based on xenophobia or something like that. No, it's based on
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
bread and butter kitchen table issues, which is if you have this ridiculous open border policy, it's inevitably going to create a lot of wage pressure for people at the bottom of the pyramid. So I think JD is making that argument. But, and this is point two, he's saying I'm not against productivity growth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
So technology is good because it enables all of our workers to improve their productivity, and that should result in productivity. better wages because workers can produce more. The value of their labor goes up if they have more tools to be productive. So there's no contradiction there. And I think he's explaining why there isn't a contradiction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
A point I would add, he doesn't make this point in that tweet, but I would add is that One of the problems that we've had over the last 30 years is that we have had tremendous productivity growth in the U.S., but labor has not been able to capture it. All that benefit has basically gone to capital or to companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And I think a big part of the reason why is because we've had this largely unrestricted immigration policy. So I think if you were to tamp down on immigration, if you were to stop the illegal immigration, then labor might be able to capture more of the benefits of productivity growth. And that would be a good thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
It would be a more equitable distribution of the gains from productivity and from technology. And that, I think, would help tamp down this growing conflict that you see between technologists and the rest of the country, or certainly the heartland of the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Well, I think just the final point he makes in that tweet is that he talks about how we live in a world in which there are other countries that are competitive. And specifically, he doesn't mention China, but he says, we have a peer competitor. And it's going to be a much worse world if they end up being six months ahead of us on AI rather than six months behind.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
That is a really important point to keep in mind. I think that the whole Paris AI summit took place against the backdrop of this recognition because just a few weeks ago, we had deep sea. And it's really clear that China is not a year behind us. They're hot on our heels or only maybe months behind us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And so if we hobble ourselves with unnecessary regulations, if we make it more difficult for our AI companies to compete, that doesn't mean that China is going to follow suit and copy us. They're going to take advantage of that fact and they're going to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
That latter part makes no sense. If the Biden administration had only been letting in people with 150 IQs, we wouldn't have this debate right now. The reason why we're having this debate is because they just opened the border and let millions and millions of people in.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
If they were just letting in the Elons and the Jensens and Friedbergs, we wouldn't be having the same conversation today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I reject the premise of this whole conversation. Wait, wait, hold on. Look, I'm a first generation American who moved here when I was five and became a citizen when I was 10. And yes, I'm fully American. And that's the only country I have any loyalty to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
But the premise that I reject here is that somehow an AI conversation leads to an immigration conversation because millions of jobs are going to be lost. We don't know that. That's also true. I agree with that. You're making a huge assumption that's buying into the doomerism that AI is going to wipe out millions of jobs. That is not... Those are facts, not evidence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I think it's going to create more jobs than any of us are imagining.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Have any jobs been lost by AI? Let's be real. We've had AI for two and a half years, and I think it's great. But so far, it's a better search engine, and it helps high school kids cheat on their essays. I mean, come on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Here's the way I categorize it, okay, is that whenever you have a new technology, you get productivity gains, you get some job disruption, meaning that part of your job may go away, but then you get other parts that are new and hopefully more elevated. you know, more interesting. And then there is some job loss.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I just think that the third category will follow the historical trend, which is that the first two categories are always bigger and you end up with more net productivity and more net wealth creation. And we've seen no evidence to date that that's not going to be the case. Now, it's true that AI is about to get more powerful. You're going to see a whole new wave of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
what are called agents this year, agentic products are able to do more for you, but there's no evidence yet that those things are going to be completely unsupervised and replace people's jobs. So, you know, I think that we have to see how this technology evolves.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And I think one of the mistakes of let's call it the European approach is assuming that you can predict the future with perfect accuracy or such good accuracy that you can create regulations today that are gonna avoid all these risks in the future. And we just don't know enough yet to be able to do that. That's a false level of certainty.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Yeah, and just to bring it back to J.D. 's speech, which was where we started, I think it was a quintessentially American speech in the sense that he said we should be optimistic about the opportunities here, which I think is basically right. And we want to lead. We want to take advantage of this. We don't want to hobble it. We don't even fully know what it's going to be yet.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
We are going to center workers. We want to be pro-worker. And I think that if there are downsides for workers, then we can mitigate those things in the future. But it's too early to say that we know what the program should be. It's more about a statement of values at this point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
My experience in the workplace is that AI tools that are doing things that an analyst or knowledge worker was doing with many hours in the past is allowing them to do something in minutes. That doesn't mean that they spend the rest of the day doing nothing. What's great for our business and for other businesses like ours that can leverage AI tools is that those individuals can now do more.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And so our throughput, our productivity as an organization has gone up. And we can now create more things faster. So whatever the product is that my company makes, we can now make more things more quickly. We can do more development.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And I'm seeing it on the ground. And I don't think that this like transplantation of how bad AI will be for jobs is the right framing as much as it is about an acceleration of productivity. And this is why I go back to the point about GDP per capita and GDP growth.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
countries, societies, areas that are interested or industries that are interested in accelerating output and accelerating productivity, the ability to make stuff and sell stuff are going to rapidly embrace these tools because it allows them to do more with less. And I think that's what I really see on the ground.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And then the second point I'll make is the one that I mentioned earlier, and I'll wrap up with a third point, which is I think we're underestimating the new industries that will emerge drastically, dramatically. There is going to be so much new
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
that we are not really thinking deeply about right now, that we could do a whole another two hour brainstorming session on, on what AI unlocks in terms of large scale projects that are traditionally or typically or today held back because of the constraints on the technical feasibility of these projects. And that ranges from accelerating to new semiconductor technology to
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
quantum computing, to energy systems, to transportation, to habitation, et cetera, et cetera. There's all sorts of transformations in every industry that's possible as these tools come online, and that will spurn insane new industries. The most important point is the third one. which is we don't know the overlap of job loss and job creation if there is one.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And so the rate at which these new technologies impact and create new markets, but I think Naval is right. I think that what happens in capitalism and in free societies is that capital and people rush to fill the hole of new opportunities that emerge because of AI and that those grow more quickly than the old bubbles deflate.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
So if there's a deflationary effect in terms of job need in other industries, I think that the loss will happen slower than the rush to take advantage of creating new things will happen on the other side. So my bet is probably on the order of, I think new things will be created faster than old things will be lost.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
In 2023, an economist named Richard Baldwin said, AI won't take your job. It's someone using AI that will take your job because they know how to use it better than you. And That's kind of become a meme and you see it floating around X, but I think there's a lot of truth in that.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
As long as you remain adaptive and you keep learning and you learn how to take advantage of these tools, you should do better. And if you wall yourself off from the technology and don't take advantage of it, that's when you put yourself at risk.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I love how that's the thing that tips you over.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
You get an extra Marvel movie or an extra Star Wars show, so that tips you over.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
AI may take over the world, but I'm going to get an extra Star Wars movie, so I'm cool with it. Yeah, I mean, are you not entertained? One final point on this is, look, I mean, given the choice between the two categories of techno-optimists and techno-pessimists, I'm definitely in the optimist camp, and I think And I think we should be.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
But I think there's actually a third category that I would submit, which is techno-realist, which is technology is going to happen. Trying to stop it is like ordering the tides to stop. If we don't do it, somebody else will. China's going to do it or somebody else will do it.
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And it's better for us to be in control of the technology, to be the leader, rather than passively waiting for it to happen to us. And I just think that's always true. It's better for businesses to be proactive and take the lead, disrupt themselves instead of waiting for someone else to do it. And I think it's better for countries. And I think you did see this theme a little bit.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I mean, these are my own views. I don't want to ascribe them to the vice president. But you did see, I think, a hint of the techno-realism idea in his speech and in his tweet, which is, look, AI is going to happen. We might as well be the leader. If we don't, we could lose in a key category that has implications for national security, for our economy, for many things.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
So that's just not a world we want to live in. So I think a lot of this debate is sort of academic because whether you're an optimist or pessimist, it's sort of glass half empty, half full. The question is just, is it going to happen or not? And I think the answer is yes. So then we want to control it. Let's just boil it down. There's not a tremendous amount of choice in this, I think.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Deep Seek exploded the fallacy that the US has a monopoly in this category and that somehow, therefore, we can slow down the train and that we have total control over the train. And I think what Deep Seek showed is, no, if we slow down the train, they're just going to win.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
But Naval, you look at the internet. That was all true for the internet, right? The internet's an open technology. It's based on tons of open source. But who's the dominant internet? All the dominant companies are U.S. companies because they were in the lead.
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Exactly right. Exactly right. Because we embrace the open internet. We embrace the open internet, but that was different.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
So there will be benefits for all of humanity. And I think the vice president's speech was really clear that, look, we want you guys to be on board. We want to be good partners. However, there are definitely going to be winners economically, militarily. And in order to be one of those winners, you have to be a leader.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And you fund it all yourself, Naval?
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
They're filling out paperwork and then burying it in a mine shaft.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And then they're going to go down the mine shaft to get the paperwork when someone retires and bring it up.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I mean, if the world ends in nuclear war, God forbid, the only thing that's be left will be the cockroaches and then a bunch of like government documents. TPS reports. TPS reports down in a mine shaft.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Basically, yeah.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
No, he didn't, J. Kelly. You invited yourself. Be honest.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
The biggest buyer of U.S. ag exports is China. Ag exports are a major revenue source, major income source, and a major part of the economy for a large number of states. And so there will be, as there was in the first Trump presidency, very likely very large transfer payments made to farmers.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
because China is very likely going to tariff imports or stop making import purchases altogether, which is what happened during the first presidency. When they did that, the federal government, I believe, had transfer payments of north of $20 billion to farmers. This is a not negligible sum, and it's a not negligible economic effect because there's then a rippling effect throughout the ag economy.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
So I think that's one key thing that I've heard folks talk about is the activity that's going to be needed to support the farm economy as the US's biggest ag customer disappears. In the early 20th century, we didn't have an income tax and the federal revenue was almost entirely dependent on tariffs. When tariffs were cut, there was an expectation
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
that there would be a decline in federal government revenue. But what actually happened is volume went up. So lower tariffs actually increased trade, increase the size of the economies. This is where a lot of economists take their basis in, hey guys, if we do these tariffs, it's actually gonna shrink the economy. It's gonna cause a reduction in trade.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
The counterbalancing effect is one that has not been tested in economics, right? Which is what's gonna happen if simultaneously we reduce the income tax and reduce the corporate income tax and basically increase capital flows through reduced taxation while doing the tariff implementation at the same time.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
So it's a grand economic experiment and I think we'll learn a lot about what's going to happen here as this all moves forward. I do think ultimately many of these countries are going to capitulate to some degree and we're going to end up with some negotiated settlement that's going to hopefully not be too short-term impactful on the economies and the people and the jobs that are dependent on trade.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I feel the same way today. Same way now, exactly. I know, me too. Yeah. Okay, good segment. Let's move on.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Yeah, Wirecutter.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I philosophically disagree with all of your nonsense on this topic. All three of you are wrong, and I'll tell you why. Number one, if information is out in the open internet... I believe it's accessible and it's viewable. And I view an LLM or a web crawler as basically being a human that's reading and can store information in its brain.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
If it's out there in the open, if it's behind a paywall, 100%. If it's behind some protected password.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
So here's the fair use. The fair use is you cannot copy, you cannot repeat the content. You cannot take the content and repeat it.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Do you know the musical artist Girl Talk? We should have done a Girl Talk track.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
He basically takes small samples of popular tracks and he got sued for the same problem. There was another guy named White Panda, I believe, had the same problem. Ed Sheeran got sued for this.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
So I think that the first and fourth test- But I think the fair use is how much of a slight change is exactly the right question, which is how much are you changing?
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I wonder this about humans. And that's why I bring up the white Panda, the girl talk in audio, but also visual art. There was always artists and even in classical music, I don't know if you guys are classical music people, but right.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
There was, there's a demonstration of how, you know, one composer learned from the next and that you can actually crack the music as kind of being standing on the shoulders of the prior. And the same is true in almost all art forms and almost all human knowledge and media and communication.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Literally, I'm getting $2,500 for three years, a bunch of Harper.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Oh, wait till J. Cal's done. I do take a nice warm bath. I nailed it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Yeah, I do a warm bath every night.
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Yeah, I usually do it after I put the kids down and I'll basically start to wind down for bed. I do watch TV sometimes, but I do have the problem and the mistake of looking at my phone probably for too long before I turn the lights off.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Usually 11 to midnight and then up at 630.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
My problem is if I have work to do, I'll get on the computer or my laptop. And then when I start that after in my evening routine, I can't stop. And then all of a sudden it's like three in the morning and I'm like, Oh no, what did I just do? And then I still have to get up at six 30. So that does happen to me.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Well, yeah, but my learning is. Yeah, watch any Dharma lecture from the SSN Center.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Yes. By the way, did you guys see just before we wrapped, did you see all the confirmations? RFK Jr. confirmed. Brooke Rollins confirmed. By the way, if you look at Polymarket, Polymarket had it all right a couple of weeks ago.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And the media was like, no way he's getting confirmed. This is not going to happen. But Polymarket knows. It's so interesting, huh?
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Jason, that's such a bad characterization. That's not a fair characterization.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I mean, the outsiders.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Maybe All In podcast should be an angel investor. Oh, yeah.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Let's do a little syndicate. No syndicate, Jason. Just our money. What are you talking about?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Namaste, bitches. Bye-bye. Thanks, guys.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
We need to get merch.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Ketamine in a hot tub.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Rain Man, David Sackett.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Brain Man, David Sack.
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I don't know. It's a really interesting economic theory. I mean, I am not opposed to seeing some sort of an experiment play out where we look at a shift from income taxation to consumption taxation and see if it actually does have an effect on economic growth and productivity. It has not been done in 150 years.
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There's a lot of economic theorists on both sides of the equation saying this does work or it doesn't work. Okay. And let me just say one last thing. By reducing government spending, we are moving workers from the government into the private workforce.
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So as those new industries pop up, as those investments start to get made in building new industry onshore, where are the workers going to come from? Remember, the government's 30% of the US GDP today. So if that's not a great way to invest money, maybe the private industry is better at investing money and employing people.
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That will unleash the workforce, and it will counterbalance the inflation that we're experiencing. So there's a lot of inflation because of tariffs. And by reducing government spending, that's the offset to inflation. So those three actions, I think, are three legs of a stool, and they actually are all interrelated to one another. So that would be my grandmaster theory of what might be going on.
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You want to address that? Yeah, look, the government accounts for 30% of GDP in the United States. That's an extraordinary sum.
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But that doesn't matter. The direct employees of federal agencies is a fraction of people that are employed indirectly by government spending. This is super important. Sure. Because as we all know, many government agencies write checks to large contractors, subcontractors, and third-party service providers that do the work for them.
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So the money gets transferred, they then employ the people, and they do the work. So it doesn't technically show up on federal government payroll registers, but these are people that are indirectly employed by federal spending. That's super important to acknowledge, that a large percentage of the U.S. workforce is indirectly supported by federal dollars.
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It's ridiculous. It's ridiculous.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
I do think Adobe has the worst. Have you guys ever done Adobe subscriptions? They're impossible to cancel.
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Well, let me challenge you guys on one point. There are now claims being made by reporters and by third parties that are saying it is a new form of kleptocracy. With all the friends of Silicon Valley installing their friends and agency heads as undersecretaries and so on, that's going to benefit Silicon Valley investors, Silicon Valley companies.
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Joe, Chamath, J. Cal, I mean, how do you guys react to the claims that there's now, you know, this new kind of kleptocratic movement? It's the old guard is gone, but now there's a new guard that's going to...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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That's one of my... management team members told me today, it's a very complex business. That's usually not a good sign. Is that a way of saying everything's good? No, no, we were good. I was on the road this week. I just got back.
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Yeah, there has to be massive transparency. How do you avoid the perception of conflict and the perception of kleptocracy?
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Okay. What does it mean to spend money on a political point of view?
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What does it mean?
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Like, if I want to pay someone to make a book for me, if I want to pay someone, if I want to pay 50 people to go and engage the community so I can get some leverage on my time, if I want to pay someone to make a website to promote my point of view on something, I should be able to do that.
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And if my point of view is related to a vote that Congress might be taking or is related to a candidate that's running for election or is related to taxes or is related to some other social issue, I don't know how you can kind of very clearly delineate The difference between some kind of political party or some political candidate versus my having a point of view on an issue.
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If I care very deeply about animal welfare, which I do, and if I had enough money that I felt like I could spend that money to influence people's point of view to improve animal welfare through laws and through candidates, I would spend that money. And I should have a right to do so.
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And I shouldn't feel restricted that I can't go publicly express my voice, make websites, put up billboards, put up posters, buy ads in papers, telling people how wrong it is, the way we treat animals and slaughter them and keep them living for their very short lives in terrorist conditions. I want to be able to express that point of view.
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And so I kind of veer to this idea- Can I ask you a question?
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So not spending money, you're saying? Like I'm not spending money to- You'd spend money, but it's not for ads. It's not for posters.
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How do you spend money to redistrict?
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I mean, maybe trucking people out to vote as an action should be illegal. That seems pretty reasonable to me.
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By the way, you call it shady, but I would argue like, what if I want to make a bunch of websites? What if I want to make like, you know, have people go out and express the point of view in the town square? You know, like there are other aspects of what you might- What I'm saying is that's fine.
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I think that the fact that someone calls it shady might be because they disagree with my point of view. And if they agree with my point of view, they might not call it shady.
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Like animal welfare is a fucked up issue. And it's something that you shouldn't just dismiss like that.
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And I would give you money to do that. Okay, great. I got a deal.
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I'm not as deep as you guys are. I remember in 2003, I worked for nine months at a private equity firm and I would cold call like companies that hadn't raised venture capital that were profitable and fast growing and see if they would take our money. That's the business model. And I spent a lot of time in the sector of businesses that were called speed doublers.
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I don't know if you guys remember these companies. 2003 was before we all had broadband internet. So a lot of people were using dial-up and you could pay $9.99 a month for a speed doubler. And what it would do is it would basically on your browser set the server to be their server. And they had a cache of many of the popular sites on the internet.
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So when you started browsing the internet on your computer, everything loaded faster. because they had really fast servers and you got these caches. And these companies, dude, they were doing like tens of millions of revenue, high margin, 50% plus EBITDA margin, and growing like 100% plus a year. And I remember we spent a bunch of time looking at these companies.
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This is right before I joined Google. And I was like, this feels like a transitory business. It's like an arbitrage between where we were and where we're going. And that's what ended up happening. Many of them just cash flowed out, the founders took money, or they were able to get a really smart private equity recap done, get some money out and run at some low multiple of EBITDA or something.
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And so I worry a little bit about a business like this where there's four or five companies that are each doing $80 billion of CapEx this year to create infrastructure that effectively starts to replace what these guys are effectively offering out as a service. That would be my biggest kind, if I was to do diligence on this business, that's where I would spend a lot of my time is like,
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guys, what's the capacity going to be in a year or two? Sort of like when broadband hit the internet, you didn't need speed doublers anymore. Do you really need to be paying as much as you are today? Is there going to be as much demand? How much is this going to get bundled in with GCP or AWS and so on in the future?
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So that would be my kind of macro hesitation and caution on the diligence as I ran my diligence on this thing.
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That's right.
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I don't know them, so I don't want to speak negatively about the business. And I haven't spent much time on it, but I mean, I think that that's an important kind of arbitrage.
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J. Cal, you tell us. Maybe you get more followers. You tell us, J. Cal.
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Are you purposefully starting to dress up, J. Cal, by the way? Because I notice every week now you're wearing a button-down and a jacket.
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all the time. I love those jackets. Just saying, let's move on.
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Like I said, I don't know about Trump. There's a, you know, I would say 60-40, I'd be right. 40%, I'd be wrong. So I don't know.
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And he's probably listening to Besson on this one. Although... You know, I think it's got to be a complicated relationship between the two of them at the moment. I do think that he is aware, and I would imagine the administration generally with Besant and others in kind of key leadership positions are trying to make the case that if we can get rates down,
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we have an opportunity to kind of refinance this $10 trillion that's coming due in the next 12 months and get ourselves into a kind of more sustainable financing position. There's still the fiscal position, which is how are we spending money and how are we spending money over time that needs to be addressed?
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I think that there is a viable case for a peaceful transition to kind of a multipolar power dynamic. And if you're a techno-pessimist, you're gonna have a point of view that there are more limited resources available to humans on earth, and therefore we have to have influence to access those resources.
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If you're a techno-optimist, you will believe that through AI and automation and all these other technologies that we could spend quite a bit of time around, that we are going to have abundant housing, abundant fuel, abundant materials, and generally an abundance of everything that one particular group might demand or need. And you don't need to go be an empire to access the resources
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that your people are demanding. And what I mean is the mining industry is a good example. There is this discovery, which I think we put on the docket for the science corner today of a giant thorium reserve in inner Mongolia, which can be used to make a thorium molten salt reactor.
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And there's enough thorium in this reserve in China to produce enough energy for 60,000 years of consumption based on current consumption rates. I saw a fantastic presentation this week by a startup that's using AI and other sensing technologies to identify new rare earth deposits in the crust of the earth that we have absolutely no visibility into today.
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And many of our assumptions about how much availability there is of certain rare earth metals is wrong and that there actually may be many, many, many orders of magnitude more material available to us to mine. And the technology for mining is getting better. The technology for discovering these deposits is improving and so on.
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So in that world where suddenly I can make all the food I want, everyone can be fed. There's plenty of land. There's plenty of housing. There's plenty of water. There's automation and robots that are serving me and all this sort of amazing stuff that's coming this century.
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Do I really need to be having a freaking conflict with Russia and China over access to some jungle or some plot of land on the other side of the planet? Or can I live sustainably in my country and everyone's going to be generally happy? So I think that this idea that maybe the U.S. exits NATO and the U.S.
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dials down its level of conflict and opposition to Russia and or China is a pretty reasonable and I would argue maybe even a techno-optimistic point of view. And we may find that in the next couple of years, we start to really believe it.
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And if we start to believe it, all the things that we're fighting over today, you don't really need to fight over anymore, except for the expansionist intentions of individuals, which is a sociological phenomenon, which may still continue. But I'm not sure that you need to be investing as much resources as we have historically. So I would argue maybe NATO in a multipolar world of abundance
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isn't as necessary as it has been in the past century, which was a world that was limited in resources, fighting for access and a growing global population, particularly in the developed world in the West, that's made it a necessity to maintain US primacy and US policing of the world.
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And I know others might have a point of view that's a little bit different on that, but I just think we could maybe go.
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I disagree with Chamath. I think it's like, you got a lot of great stuff here. It's changing every week. I'm not paying attention to the details anymore. New models come out every week. This is like when the internet launched, new websites. This is carrying us forward. It's impossible to dissect and predict what's going to win, when, and why right now.
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I use ChatGPT research a lot. The deep research, right, where it fires up a bunch of web pages.
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I pay $200 a month, yeah. I find it very good. And then we build everything at Ohalo on GCP, and we've run a bunch of different models.
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And then we run models.
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Yeah, lots of different tools, but it's awesome.
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We're throwing a big party in Miami around F1. And we're going to do a little stage show beforehand because it's going to be awesome. And we're going to celebrate my birthday because I'm not going to be able to make it in June.
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I had that. I remember it was $50. It was a really big deal to afford it. It was $50 and it was worth it.
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I recently bought a G-Shock on Amazon as kind of like a memento to recap. And my frigging daughter stole the G-Shock. Nostalgia. Yeah, it's a cool.
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Oh, now you just told me how you're younger than me, Joe. Now I know you're like four years younger.
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Point of privilege, actually. TI-80. It was the 81-82 transition that was like a big deal. What?
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Good to be back. I see that you've suited up here.
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Well, look, I just have to correct one thing. I think it's been a very smooth week at the White House. The president has lived up to one of his campaign promises. This is not something new. I remember you go all the way back to his national speech during the campaign. And he reiterated this many times that he wanted to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
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Sometimes he called it a digital asset stockpile. What we've ultimately done here is both. He also, in his week one EO on crypto, you guys remember I came on the show to talk about that. He asked our president's working group on digital assets to evaluate the idea of a reserve or stockpile. And we made a recommendation and this administration is moving at tech speed.
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It's really great to work for an administration where you can actually get things done and things move quickly. We made our recommendation and then we worked with the lawyers to implement it and president signed it last night. But this is fully consistent with everything he's always said.
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Have you ever considered that maybe you just had an overreaction to a tweet? Yeah.
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Yeah, we're not picking favorites, obviously, except I will say this. We do think Bitcoin is special and I can get into the reasons why.
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Well, I mean, Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency. It's the first one. It's the only one that doesn't have an issuer, right? It's very decentralized. It's, you know, in crypto, they call this the immaculate conception. We don't really know how it got here. We don't know who Satoshi is. It's almost mystical, you would say. Yes. It's the most valuable one. It has a $2 trillion market cap.
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And it's the most secure. It's never been hacked, right? So we're now over 15 years into this journey. And there's been a lot of people who've been skeptical along the way. And there's been a lot of ups and downs. But here it is. I mean, I remember back in 2011, I think it's the first time I bought a Bitcoin. I think it was at $120. Now it's at $90,000.
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Again, there have been all sorts of wild swings along the way. But this thing just keeps chugging along. And you can think of that... $2 trillion market cap is like a $2 trillion bug bounty. If there was a way to hack this, there's every incentive in the world. And by hack, I mean like to double spend, create basically a counterfeit Bitcoin, I guess, would be the way for people to think about it.
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Well, I don't know if it's a miracle. I think it's exceptional design. Sure. And so I think what you could say is that it's been tested in a very robust way, and there's been every incentive to basically break the encryption, and it continues to chug along. And so I think the price has gone up as the protocol has gotten more acceptance.
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And this is another point is that Bitcoin is most widely accepted as a store of value throughout the world. So we do believe it should be treated special. Now, that being said, we're also creating the digital asset stockpile.
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The digital gold in there, we want to keep it secure. We never want to sell it. That's the goal of the reserve. And you're right that we've made the mistake in the past of selling this stuff. At one point in time, we had about 400,000 Bitcoin on the federal balance sheet. We sold roughly half of that for something like $360 million. total.
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If we had held all of that, it would be worth just that the portion we sold would be worth over 17 billion. So we made this mistake of prematurely selling Bitcoin when we should have held it. We don't want to make that mistake with regard to the rest of it.
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We think there's around 200,000 coins left on the federal balance sheet, but the truth is that nobody knows because we've never done a proper audit. So part of what this executive order provides is that we're going to do for the first time government-wide accounting of the digital assets that we actually have.
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They'll be legally required to report it, and then they'll go in the reserve if there's a final adjudication. So obviously, if those coins could go back as restitution to victims or... If the person who they were seized from wins their court case and gets them back, they're not going to go into the Federal Reserve.
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But if there's been a final adjudication and a final forfeiture, yes, those will go into the reserve. Anyway, that's Bitcoin. Okay, so then you got the stockpile. Let me just talk about that. So first of all, like I said, we don't know exactly what digital assets the federal government has. I've seen reports that it might have, for example, 50,000 ETH, which is Ethereum.
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But again, we need to get to the bottom of that. When we figure out exactly what the assets are, we're going to move them into the digital stockpile. The purpose of the stockpile is responsible stewardship. It's a place for safekeeping. It's a centralized, you could say, account under the direction of the Secretary of the Treasury.
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And the Secretary of the Treasury will figure out how to maximize the values of these holdings. Now, there's a couple of important differences between stockpile and reserve. So one is the reserve, the executive order actually provides that the Secretary of the Treasury will not sell the Bitcoin, okay? We're prohibited from selling the Bitcoin, right?
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There's no such prohibition with respect to the stockpile. If the Secretary of the Treasury decides that it's in the long-term interest of the U.S. to rebalance the portfolio or change the portfolio, the Secretary has the discretion to do that.
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Yeah, I mean, I think that that's largely fair. I mean, look, I think that the stockpile should be subject to good portfolio management, right? And fortunately, we have a secretary of the treasury who is an extremely successful former hedge fund manager. So he's going to figure out the best way to manage these assets. And we give him the flexibility to do portfolio management.
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Right. But the reserve is different, right? The reserve is just digital Fort Knox. Now, there's one other important difference between stockpile and reserve.
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So with respect to reserve, the EO provides that the secretaries, and I'm talking about Treasury and Commerce, they're allowed to figure out strategies to accumulate more Bitcoin for the reserve if those strategies are budget neutral and don't cost the taxpayer anything, okay?
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So it's possible that we could, I'm not saying that we will, but it gives them, it authorizes them to acquire more Bitcoin if they can figure out a way to do it that doesn't impact the federal budget or the deficit or taxpayers, right?
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That's always how taxes start is that they're described as being very modest. You know, when the income tax started, it only applied to like a thousand Americans. Yes. And the legislators swore up and down that it would never be applied to middle class people. So I don't particularly like the idea of new taxes, even if it's promised that they just won't affect people very much.
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That sounds burdensome to me. But look, we have very successful- Well, this would, and just so you know,
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But I'll let you percolate on it. If you can convince the Secretary of the Commerce or the Secretary of Treasury to run with your idea, then it could potentially happen. I mean, they have the flexibility to figure out budget-neutral ways to accumulate Bitcoin. I don't know what those ways are going to be, but they're creative. They're very successful businessmen.
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And if they figure out a way to do this, then it can be considered. That's the point.
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Well, let me address that.
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Well, people came out right away and were saying that somehow I was engaged in a scheme to pump my bags or to basically create exit liquidity for myself and billionaires, stuff like that. You have to understand that those accusations, I mean, they're accusing me of a crime. A serious crime. A serious crime. And they're doing it with no evidence whatsoever.
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So these things are basically, it's borderline. Slander. Slander and defamation. It's slanderous.
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In any event, what they didn't know and what I then proceeded to put out there is that I sold all my cryptocurrency prior to day one of the administration because I didn't want to even have the appearance of a conflict. And by the way, I could have waited. I didn't have to do it like that, but I decided to do it and take it upon myself to do that because
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You just know that when it comes to crypto, there's going to be a lot of fluctuations in the market. You never want someone to be able to point at one of those fluctuations and say somehow that the cryptos are benefited from that and create a conspiracy theory, which is exactly what basically happened. So first of all, I got rid of all my cryptocurrency prior to day one. Kraft also...
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So we basically sold, I think it was around $200 million of crypto, of which around $85 million was personally attributable to myself. And we cleared that before day one, paid taxes on it, and basically so there wouldn't be a conflict. So then... The smear shifted in another direction. It was, okay, well, maybe he doesn't own crypto. Okay. But he's in crypto funds. Okay.
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And so they pointed to, you know, Bitwise and Multicoin Capital. And I was also in Blockchain Capital. And so then the fund managers came out and one by one all said, actually, David called us over two months ago and said, he's going to need to divest from our funds. And so we also did that. Yeah.
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You know, I think basically they've kind of given up on this. But look, it's very easy.
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Right. Well, let me just underscore something you said.
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I'm an unpaid consultant to the government.
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You're getting no money. No, I don't want anything. This is costing you money. No, of course it is. But it's an honor to serve and it's an honor to be asked to serve. And in particular, it's an honor to serve this president. Because he really wants to make the country great again. So that's why I'm doing it.
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But yeah, look, I think it's a lazy and stupid narrative to say that the reason why someone who's already successful in business goes into government is to somehow make more money. I was making money before. This involves a substantial disruption of my business interests. And I have to divest a lot of those business interests.
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And in divesting, I have to be either a taxpayer or I have to take a significant discount. And it costs you money. So, you know, it's just a lazy narrative that people create, but there's no truth to it. And just to underscore a point that you made a second ago, you were one of the funds I divested from, not because you're a crypto fund, but because you might have a crypto position.
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We went through, I think, the launch funds holdings, and I think there was something crypto related in there.
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Right. So I just didn't want to have any problem there, so...
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So just to go back to one other point you said about not picking winners and losers, I think that's a very important point.
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comment that you made that i see as fundamental to my job i mean look i think we do think that bitcoin is special for the reasons i said beyond that we do not want to be in the business of picking and choosing winners in in the space and again if some other digital asset could prove that it's as decentralized and as secure and as widely accepted as a store of value as bitcoin
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then maybe it could be elevated in the same way that Bitcoin has. I mean, I'm laying out the criteria for you. But look, beyond that, we don't want to be picking winners and losers in the space. And that's not my job. I mean, my job is not to be a regulator or to anoint which ones are good or bad. It's to basically be a policy advisor for innovation.
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And I'll just tell you the way that I see all the digital assets in the space is that what's fundamental is disclosure. If you're an issuer of a digital asset, you need to disclose all the material facts about what you're doing, and those facts have to be accurate. You can't lie.
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My view is that if you, the issuer, lie about something, the government should come down on you like a ton of bricks because that's fraud, okay? But as long as you do this- in an honest way, people should be able to trade these things. I understand that you think a lot of them are garbage. You might be right. You could express that view in a trade.
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But as long as everyone has been above board in terms of disclosure, people should have the right to trade these things. And some are going to make money, some are going to lose money. It's about the freedom to basically trade, to hold these assets. The government doesn't want to get in the way of that. It just wants to make sure that the information is out there, that it's honest.
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And if people lie... In order to profit, I'm all in favor of going after them.
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What you're describing is known in Washington or the area of policy that you're describing is known as market structure. And market structure is about providing a clear framework for market participants. It would define what is a security, what's a commodity, what's simply a collectible. It's a property, but it's not a security. And then what are the rules for each category?
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That's known as market structure. There is a bill that passed the last Congress in the House, but Biden basically – he didn't veto it, but he basically – he and the Democrats stopped it. He stopped it in the Senate. The Democrats did. It was called 521. 521. And it was authored by French Hill, who's now the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.
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So we expect that he will be introducing a new version of his bill probably in the next few weeks. I don't think I'm breaking any news by saying this. I think people expect it. Okay. And that's going to provide the framework for market structure. It's going to provide a lot of the definitions that you're talking about.
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Now, I agree with your sentiment, but I will say that I might have a different view than you of what is a security, what's not. I mean, to me, collectibles are not securities, but... If it's a collectible, you got to disclaim that, look, this has no intrinsic value, right? That's a collectible. Think about a baseball card. A baseball card is a piece of cardboard.
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Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
It has no intrinsic value, but the value comes from basically other collectors being willing to buy it from you. And you could just say that that's irrational or whatever. So look, I think as long as people disclaim that this coin has no intrinsic value, they should be able to issue meme coins. It's a separate question why people would want to buy them.
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But look, in my view, that's very different than someone who goes out as an issuer and says, I'm issuing a token or a coin that has lots of functionality and has lots of value. And you'll hear some of these guys even say that, hey, our token is more valuable than Bitcoin. You should value it more highly. Right.
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Well, if you're promising that and you're saying that it's going to have certain functionality, you better be telling the truth about it.
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Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Well, disclosure is the key. Like I said, I mean, these projects should have to disclose certain things. I think, for example, the token cap table should be disclosed. Who are the insiders? How much do they have? When are they selling? You know, that's information the market should always know, in my opinion.
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When can you sell?
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Yeah, I don't think you have to disclose everyone who owns a token. That could be hard to comply with, but I think you should have to disclose... Over 5%. You should have to disclose the insiders and their sales plans and their lockups. And I would also say how new tokens get created. I mean, if this is a fully centralized...
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Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
token where they can just mint more, people need to know that because there's no scarcity, right? But if there's somehow an enforcement mechanism and there's enforced scarcity, then that's a different story. So yeah, these things have to be disclosed. And by the way, I think the market structure bills will do that. There's a version of this in FIT21, last Congress, I think it'll be the next one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
And moreover, the SEC is looking right now at these rules and they're going to create their own frameworks They're doing an excellent job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
So the person who's been nominated for the new chair of the SEC is named Paul Atkins, and he has not been confirmed yet. The confirmation hearings still need to happen. Separately... Hester Peirce, who's a commissioner at the SEC, is in charge of... I know Hester.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
She's great. She's excellent. She's very well informed. And she's very sharp taking the lead on all the crypto related stuff. So I trust her and I trust the SEC to produce those detailed frameworks that you're talking about. Yeah. I think that my role as call it innovation policy advisor is just to kind of make sure that we have the big picture right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
And I'm very confident that the SEC, the CFTC, and the legislators are going to figure out the balance here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
I don't sit inside of Trump's head and I don't have any direct line of communication to folks that are constructing the theory and the policy. If I were to say, what's the most masterful plan in an optimistic way of what could be going on here? What's the master plan? I would kind of craft it as follows. Tariffs aren't being done in isolation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
They're being done along with a coordinated policy effort to reduce income taxes, and another policy effort to reduce government spending. So those are three actions, three legs on a stool. So tariffs, reduced income taxes, reduced government spending. And they are related to each other.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
They're related to each other because if we increase tariffs, one element of that is that to import products is more expensive. For example, I buy LED lights in my greenhouse. and the price of the LED lights just went up by 25%. This week, I actually spoke with the CEO of an LED company, and I was like, why don't you guys make the LEDs here?
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Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
And there starts to become a crossover point where it actually makes economic sense for the company to make the LEDs here instead of sourcing them from Asia. And there's 100,000 examples of this. When the industrial supply chain goes to the lowest part of production, it's going to end up offshoring when there's no tariffs. And if there are tariffs, then you start to do production here.
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Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
So you're increasing both kind of security for the US supply chain, but also increasing demand and creation of a workforce.
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Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Now, I think that the income tax piece is critical here because in order to make the capital available to build that industry here, we need to unleash capital and reducing of income taxes, the economic theory would be, that capital will now flow into these entrepreneurial activity, these opportunities that have emerged, where suddenly it makes sense for me to make textiles
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to make metals, to make materials, to make cars, to make all this stuff here in the United States that I otherwise wouldn't be making. So both the corporate and the personal income tax, by reducing it, unleashes capital that instead of going into the government, it now goes into the private sector into building businesses. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
I think that there's another theory about this, which is as you drop the income tax, One of the kind of key theories that I've heard spoken about a lot lately, and I think we're gonna hear about it a lot more this year, is trying to get the United States to move away from an income taxation model to a consumption taxation model.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
So effectively what the tariffs do is there's a tax for you buying certain things. So now, instead of getting taxed when you earn money as an individual, you get taxed when you spend money.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
And some people think that that's both a more fair system and a more kind of economically vibrant system because that will drive investment in the things that people want to produce because the money's going into production.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Just so you know, everything is archived by the White House right now. So everything we say is recorded. David Freeburg is a... Chamath, stop. You're being recorded.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Can you flip back again? So your number for 24 was how much? 2.1 million, right? Yep.
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It basically became like a Rorschach test where people that did not want to believe the points you were making latched on to that chart that was shown, even though it was disproven. And that became the narrative for a good chunk of the internet and a good chunk for media responses.
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Tell us about your political background again. We haven't talked about this on the show, Antonio, but I think it's worth letting everyone hear about your background a little bit, just so folks understand where you're coming from.
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Was it public prior to this week, Antonio, that you were doing this role? Did you announce it anywhere? I didn't announce it anywhere.
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Do you believe that there is a Democratic Party motive to increase voter base for the Democrats behind all of this, as has been proclaimed by some?
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You really want me to start with you? You want me to start? You want me to put some shit in the archives? Oh, my God.
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But really importantly, I just want to make sure, because when I talk to politicians from the Democratic Party about this, they say there's aspects of human rights doing the right thing for people in need that is motivating some of this behavior. Is that... a lie? And they actually have a different motive?
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Or do some in the party think that way, but there are real kind of kind of call it a small group of highly influential folks at the top of the Democratic Party that recognize that this is going to grow the voter base. And they're they're kind of motivating this. What do you think is the construction of what sounds to some to be a conspiracy? And how much of this is really like widely understood?
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Here, let me put some shit in the archives for you.
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en in in in in a. A. A. A. A. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. en.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm going to pee my pants.
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Exactly, exactly. Didn't Canada do the same? Didn't Canada drop tariffs like the morning of or the day before?
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I'm going to pee my pants. I think you need to shut the fuck up is what you need to do. Sorry, White House. I'm going to pee my pants. He also has some unpaid parking tickets for 2021. You want me to start with you?
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The Fed doesn't control the back end of the curve.
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On the treasury markets, the government sells treasuries. No, no, I know that.
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Chamath, I want to add on to your point. Just so you guys know, there's roughly... 12 to $16 trillion of private corporate debt in America. So this is debt held by small businesses, medium businesses, partnerships that have on average, call it a 15% operating margin. So they're gonna be under pressure if there is some recessionary risk to make sure they have access to capital.
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And if you remember the interview that Besant gave to us a couple of weeks ago, he was very clear that one of his mandates is to enable the re-leveraging of the financial system.
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meaning he wants to give banks the ability to issue more debt, to introduce more capital and more liquidity into the markets by taking away some of the regulatory restrictions that have made it more difficult for the banks to issue credit to business owners and to individuals. So if they are successful in their deregulatory efforts, it will introduce more liquidity into the market
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coupled with deregulatory work that they're making in the other parts of the administration, as this is their declaration, not mine. Their intention is to make sure that that capital flows into building businesses, building new businesses, underwriting new jobs, creating more employment. That's the theory that they're trying to execute.
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Obviously, it's part of this three-legged stool, but if it doesn't all work, the stool falls over.
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Well, I think there are three consequences, not necessarily related to inflation, that are just worth spending time on. One of which I don't think gets talked about enough The first is just the challenge of tariffs in general. And I shared this clip with you guys over the group chat yesterday from Ronald Reagan talking about tariffs. Oh, it's so funny.
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So let me just say three things that I think are gonna be important consequences, one of which doesn't get talked about much at all. The first is the important point about the decline in competitiveness that arises when you use protectionist tactics like import tariffs.
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So ultimately, in order to be competitive in the market, you need to have a free market to test how good you are relative to your competitors.
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And if you use tariffs or other taxes or other government intervening systems to distort the natural forces of markets, meaning there's a buyer and a seller, there may be multiple sellers and ultimately the buyer will choose the best seller, then you're creating a disincentive for American enterprise to be more competitive. We lost manufacturing because we weren't competitive in manufacturing.
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Putting a tariff on other manufacturing countries does not make Americans more competitive. It basically gives American businesses a crutch.
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So let's talk about manufacturing. So if I'm using a traditional assembly line with low efficiency systems, I'm going to be more expensive to make a device than a Chinese factory that's built with a lot of automation, high efficiency systems, etc.
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And so if I'm saying well, to buy the Chinese product, you got to pay twice as much because there's a tariff now, the American company does not have an incentive to invest in automating or building better technology or adopting new technology to make themselves competitive in the marketplace.
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So that's the challenge with tariffs long term is that they distort economic consequences that arise in a traditional free market system. The second consequence I think is important is under this guise and in the near term, the effect of some of these tariffs is going to be the loss of revenue for a significant chunk of the American businesses. In particular, I'll use one example.
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People may not remember this because it wasn't that big of a thing, but between 2016 and 2020, during the last Trump administration, there was a continued kind of tariff and trade escalation between Trump and China. And during that time, China stopped buying American ag exports. And China is the biggest buyer of American agricultural products.
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As a result, the Trump administration had to issue two support payment checks to farmers that totaled $28 billion in 2018 and 2019. Just because of that China stepping out of the buying market, American farmers represent a large amount of the voting block for the Republican Party. And so I think that the second consequence is going to be that there is going to need to be financial support
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which means increased government spending if we intend to keep the tariffs in place and the global market stops buying American exports. That's the second consequence. The third consequence, which is the one I am most worried about, which I think about a lot, is China had the state council meeting a couple days ago.
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And in that state council meeting, they announced a series of measures and a series of steps that they would be willing to take on IP infringement in the case of retaliatory tariff escalation in a trade war. What that means is that China may step up and say, you know what, we are disregarding all of the IP rights held by IP rights holders around the world.
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And they could steal IP more openly, more brazenly. And because they have a lower cost of manufacturing, they have a larger manufacturing base, a lower cost of power, they could basically take the only thing that much of American enterprise relies on, which is our IP rights, and say, we're just going to while people might say, oh, they already do that, they already do that.
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They do it to an extent. But imagine if China just made copies of Microsoft Word, and started selling it around the world for $5.
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And so now imagine if they started taking all of American manufacturing drawings, blueprints, designs, and they have all this manufacturing capacity, and they sold everything at 10 cents on the dollar to all of the global markets that the US is now cutting trade ties with because of the tariff escalation. And China says, we don't care about your IP rights anymore.
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We don't care because you've cut us off. The rest of the world needs someone that will sell to them. I will also say China, one thing that's not talked about, which I'll add in, seems to have developed three nanometer semiconductor manufacturing technology, which is gonna go into production in Q3 of 2025, and will end up being in full production in 2026.
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This will move the base from Taiwan potentially into China. They are developing lithography systems. They are developing advanced semiconductor manufacturing systems, and they will effectively have everything from energy to the minerals, to the manufacturing capacity, to support and service all, and the software now, all of technology.
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And so we are in a really disadvantaged position if China does choose in this moment to disregard the IP rights of American businesses.
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And he goes, Sri Lanka.
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Oh, you missed this. There's an island that got a 10% tariff, but there's nothing on the island except penguins.
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Oh, my God.
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Yeah, the AI supply chain is electricity. We're going from one terawatt to two. China's going from three to eight over the same time period, just to be clear. So they're accelerating. The second is rare earth materials that we don't mine for. We've outsourced mining. And Doug Burgum told me an interesting stat.
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he's our Secretary of the Interior, he said, we only graduate 200 people a year in the United States with degrees in mining. Because beginning in the 90s, when globalization took off, we basically stopped mining in this country and moved everything to all the places. Because we had this nimbyism, we didn't want to have mining in our backyard.
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The third, obviously, is the manufacturing of semiconductors, which we don't do. The components to do the manufacturing. So there's a company called ASML, which everyone that works in tech knows about. They have these advanced lithography systems to make the semiconductors. They don't sell to China. So now China's got their own homegrown lithography systems.
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Yeah. And we don't make any of that in-house. So we don't mine, we don't have enough power, we don't have the materials, and we don't make lithography, and we don't have any fabs.
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At the end of the day, what the US has is the weights. We've got 70 billion parameters and we call that an AI model. That 70 billion parameters, if someone gets a copy of it, they've got an AI model. So how much of an advantage do we really have? And the other thing that we had was- Meanwhile, China's got the whole supply chain and now they're making their own models.
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But this is what I've been saying to J. Cal, de-dollarization is what ends up happening.
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Thank you.
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Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'll answer Tim Hoff's earlier question about what America can anchor to to attract the rest of the world. And I think it's what's been the American story from the beginning, which is ambition. We pioneered the West. We launched the Industrial Revolution. We went to space. We landed on the moon. We had the Manhattan Project.
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We unleashed the information technology revolution with the development of the transistor. The ambition is what's been kind of consumed by China. In the last 20 years, they've built 30,000 miles of high speed rail. In the next 15 years, they're going to add more electricity production capacity than the United States times two has today. There's nothing short of ambition coming out of China.
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And it's what we're lacking. All of our political gambits, all of our debates are all centered around what we're trying to fix that went wrong in the past, what we did wrong and what we got to do to make it right. And we don't talk at all about the ambition of where we can lead the world to next. China's the only one that's doing that.
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And I think that's where we need to kind of have a bit of an important pivot on the global stage, if we want to be able to kind of attract partners and also to have Americans think outside of this week, where are we headed? And I just, I don't know. I mean, I don't know if you guys agree, but I just feel like that's one of the key things that we've kind of lost track of.
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Oh, by the way, I created a polymarket on GDP... annualized GDP growth in Q3 of this year being below negative 5%.
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Check it out on Polymarket. What's the probability of that happening? Make your bets.
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We're in Florida, are you? We're doing an event in Miami at the end of the month.
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Do you want to come to Miami and hang out? We've got like this nightclub. We're doing a stage. We've got the track side of Formula One.
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I don't know which strip club is sponsoring all in this trip, but we'll figure it out. That was awesome, Ben. Thanks for doing that.
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Is there any ID verification along the way, Antonio? Like, do we know that there are no duplications happening by validating that one individual is getting one social security number at any point in this process?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Rain Man, David Sack. I'm going all in. And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you guys. Queen of Kinwa. I'm going all in.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, I am. Yeah. I think it's also It's not just this kind of dexterous automation, but I do think drones, autonomous vehicles, I put them all in the same category where it's some combination of mechanical response to a machine vision system. that I think has become accelerated this year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I do think it's a lot harder to create one of these general purpose systems and automation than create like vertically or kind of utility specific systems. automation system. So a device that just does one thing delivers something to you in the air or drives your food to you or loads and unloads your dishes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I you know, I'm not sure if that's the whole the whole idea of the humanoid is it's ambitious. Yeah, it is a general purpose device. And it makes a technically very hard roadmap. I gotta imagine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The big question in the Trump actions is around tariffs versus the tax cuts that are being proposed versus the spending cuts. Those are kind of the three levers. And there's a very serious sensitivity to the economic outlook for growth and inflation as a function of how far each of those three levers are pulled and how they relate to each other.
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is Trump actually going to pull forward the cuts that he has talked about or that Elon's talked about? How real is that? There's a whole spectrum of opinions on that right now. On one end, you're looking at the House and the Senate reconciliation process for the budget proposals that they've put forth.
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And you're going to scratch your head and be like, are we really cutting enough relative to what the economists and others are telling us we need to do? Meanwhile, you've got Elon and Trump saying, hey, we're cutting, we're cutting, we're saving, we're going to get to a trillion dollars a year. But that's not showing up necessarily in the budget. Is it showing up in the actions out of Doge, TBD?
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is this just like people are intrigued by the gossip angle of it or is it because they want to prosecute people for hurting people or is it because they want to cancel people and this is a nice opportunity to cancel like what's what's what's the this i think this is an interesting question because this thing's been going on for 20 years i think this actually has more to do with conspiracy there is and now the deep state like is there a deep state cover-up is the question i think the question is if
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So there's a whole spectrum of opinions on the cuts. On the tariff side, there's a spectrum of like, how far are these tariffs going to go? You know, the United States, up until 18-something years, was entirely tariff driven in our federal government's revenue. And it was a way of being kind of protectionary to the industry here.
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And then over time, the tariffs rates came down and down and down as we introduced an income tax, which started, I think at 3% right after the civil war and went to 5% for high income earners. And then obviously in the 20th century, that's totally flipped. Now we have like no tariffs and a 50% income tax for the highest bracket.
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So can we actually revert back to a tariff-driven income model for the federal government? And what is the economic effect on growth for corporate America in that world where taxes get cut for the companies and for individuals, but we make all of our money from global trade? Does the increased cost of global trade hurt companies more than the benefit of paying fewer taxes, lower taxes?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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That's the big economic argument that's underway right now. And it's funny, it kind of seems to fall along political lines, believe it or not, much like everything else. You know, like economists that are democratic aligned are democratic aligned.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, exactly. And so the democratic aligned economists will say, the tariffs don't make sense, they reduce economic growth, they have a negative effect, we shouldn't be doing that. And then the Republican aligned economists are saying, the tax cuts will more than make up for the reduction from the tariffs. And that's the big unknown right now. So I would say that the spending cuts, wide spectrum,
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The income tax cuts big spectrum on what's actually going to get done here. And then the tariffs big spectrum on how far this is going to go. And so those three things, you've got like three very wide ranges of things that all interplay that ultimately determine inflation, economic growth, government deficits over the next decade.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And we don't really have a clear picture yet of how those three things interplay. And they're all being hotly debated. And by the way, there's high variability. They're changing day to day. Every day, Trump's like this tariff, that tariff. Yesterday, there's a whole bunch of confusion on tariffs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Today, there's a whole bunch of like discussion on how far the tax cut extension is going to go in the reconciliation process and on and on and on. So TBD.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, it's not just Trump. Yeah, but the House and the Senate, they both put forward their budgets, right? And now they go through this reconciliation process. And there's a lot in there that leaves a lot to be desired. If you're an absolute fiscal conservative and you're trying to get us to 3% deficit as a percent of GDP, you're like, wait a second, does this do enough?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But J. Cal, remember, you can't make those statements as fact because a lot of those over 10-year projections are projections based on someone's estimate of the economic effect of the tax cuts. So there's also a lot of debate on that, which is, hey, some people are saying, if we make these tax cuts, the economy will grow faster than this particular- Much faster, yes.
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that the CBO economists will estimate. And the CBO economists are trying to be conservative. So there's a whole lot of debate going on right now on like, how much is this really gonna cost? And people like, oh my God, Trump is talking about raising our deficits so much over the next decade.
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But then there's a different point of view, which is, wait a second, if you assume that the economy will grow because of these cuts, then that's actually not true. And then there's all these wild cards around the golden visa card. Yeah, we're about to get to that, yeah. Are the tariffs going to be a trillion a year? Are they going to be $2 trillion of revenue? Or none. No one really knows.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Or just a negotiation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But Chamath's right. The bond market tells you a lot. The fact that the 10-year has peaked at 5% two weeks before the election. And then it peaked again the second week of January at 4.78%. Now it's down to 4.26% today. So it's come down by a full half a point in the last month, which tells you a lot about the expectations on inflation and growth over the next decade.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And it's actually a reasonable sign that we don't think there's gonna be rampant inflation over the next decade based on some of the policy decisions and actions that are being taken by this administration. So I would say there's some indication that if you were to kind of try and decode the enigma of the three things that we talked about are going on,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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you know, it's generally kind of deflationary to some extent, or it's not inflationary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm honestly pretty uncertain and I'm pretty unhappy with both the Senate and the House budgets, personally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, I don't think there's enough action in there. I don't think that, and it's weird because you hear Elon talking to all the members of the cabinet and he's pretty clear cut. Hey, we've got to save, this government is in a debt spiral. We have to fix this problem, yada, yada. And then it's sort of like business as usual. which like I said, when we were in D.C., that was exactly my observation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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For every senator, representative, member of Congress that we met with or that I talked to at a cocktail party, it was the same bullshit. It was like, I gotta get this for my people. That's the goal. And we've turned this federated republic into a whole bunch of elected representatives showing up in D.C., scrambling and grabbing money for their constituents.
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That's what they were hired and elected to do. And it's a really unfortunate circumstance that no one looks out for the better interest of the US dollar over time and says, you know what, we've actually got a limitation on us. And that limitation should be less than 3% deficit to GDP. That's our budget. That's our max budget. And start from there and then do a buildup. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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100%. Hey, check out this prediction, Nick. We now have a polymarket to trade. How many gold cards will Trump sell in 2025?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, so you either can have zero. Okay. You can have one to 100, 100 to 1,000. Here's the different levels, 1,000 to 2,500, 2,500 to 5,000. So you can basically buy the level that you think. There's an 8% probability right now in Polymarket that by the end of 2025, there will be zero of these golden visas sold. 25% chance of one to 100, 17% chance of 100 to 1,000, and so on.
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The most probable level is actually 2,500 to 5,000, which is sitting at 29% probability right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So what do you think? This is by the end of 25, J. Cal. So you got to get, they basically have to get the program. So they still have to get this done. They got to get the program up and running. Okay, I understand. So it's by the end of 25 is the way to go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Will you put real money on that? You should do that. Oh, you can't trade polymarket.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You have to create 10 full-time jobs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Which would sell the most? The way this is proposed by Trump and Lutnik is it's $5 million for basically a green card. You get permanent residence in the United States. You get to live here permanently.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, they have like a huge audience on regular Jeopardy. I think it's like 9 million a night or something, or 7 to 9 million a night. Yeah. But I think Celebrity Jeopardy, because it's like later, it's got a smaller audience. But it's still like a couple million people watch this thing, which is crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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They're getting rid of the EB-5 program after this. That's their proposal. And so here's the math. Let me ask you guys a question. Jamal, J. Cal, how many people in the world have a net worth above 100 million?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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100 millionaires.
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28,000, 40% of whom are in the U.S., which means there's 17,000. Who knows that number's real?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay. So whatever fudge factor you want, 17,000 is the reported number of 100 millionaires outside the U.S. Do you think that that's the cutoff for people that would spend $5 million? And then what percent of them would buy a U.S. green card for $5 million? $5 million.
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Right. Easy peasy. It's a true green card.
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I'm not sure there's a million buyers. I think there's probably 10,000 max buyers of this thing.
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He said there's a million people- Pull up the polling market, Nick. The most probable is one to 2,500. I think that's probably right. But you didn't ask the total.
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Great. I'll take the opposite. Okay, and I'll tell you why. I think you're right. It would be great, but they should buy the S&P. They should buy the S&P index proven, scaled, audited, profitable, well vetted, solid fiduciary responsibility with public board companies. Yep. And what will they learn from that?
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The problem is most of these people, most people, even smart VCs, even intelligent people, make extraordinary mistakes in the startups that they back. I don't think that we have a shortage of startups. I think we have a shortage of good startups. Let me address those.
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But if you flood the market with capital, you're going to see the same problem we've had with every venture capital cycle or every private cycle, which is you get a whole bunch of bullsh**. that gets funded, that shouldn't get funded, that ends up eating a lot of people's money.
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And unfortunately, when people are less sophisticated and they enter the private investment markets, they're not going to necessarily be left well off. They're going to end up getting scammed in a different way. Someone's going to show some crazy fancy PowerPoint to them, take their money, and they're going to get eaten up, which won't happen if they buy the S&P. Go ahead.
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Not even diversification, just like vetted, like mature real companies versus what I think will happen, which we've seen time and again with people that are not sophisticated or experienced when they first enter a new market, any market, is this process of adverse selection, which is you have predatory practices, predatory pitches that show up and say, invest in this. It's a great deal.
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This is the new thing. Most people aren't able to vet that thing and they end up getting taken advantage of. And that's the problem.
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I don't disagree with that. I think there's a reason we have securities regulations and securities laws that public companies have to follow, but private companies are more lax on. That's where there's this distinction. So I don't disagree.
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Don't mischaracterize me, Chamath. That's not true at all. I'm obviously a free market guy. I don't give a shit. So why can't poor people invest in Uber? I'm pointing out the consequence of what would happen. I'm not saying I disagree with the notion of letting anyone invest in anything they want. I'm just telling you what I think is going to happen.
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I would want to invest in everything. I'm not disagreeing with the notion. I'm pointing out what will happen, which is predatory assets will show up and they'll rip people off. That's what happens in every one of these markets.
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People can lose their ass. They just need to know they're gonna lose their ass. I'm just telling you, that's what's gonna happen. And then you know what's gonna happen next? Elizabeth Warren's gonna get on TV and be like, hey, we gotta fix this, put a bunch of regulations in place.
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That's how this goes. I'm pointing out, this is what happens in all these markets.
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As you guys know, we looked at the data. Even the best venture capital firms in Silicon Valley with the smartest, most sophisticated people investing in private assets were not able to beat the NASDAQ over the last 10 years.
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That's not what I said.
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I said, here's what's going to happen. I said, here's the consequence of this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You guys want to hear something crazy?
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That category, African geography. I was at dinner the night before with our friend Xander and his wife. And we started talking about their son was taking a quiz on African geography. And they started giving me all the questions. And we were actually quizzing at dinner the night before on African geography. It was like a slumdog millionaire moment.
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And I was like, in my head, I'm like, there's no way that's real, that that actually happened. We literally were just talking about African geography at dinner the night before. And I'm like, the judges had to have been listening or something.
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Well, I was a little wound up because I've watched jeopardy my whole, like since I was a kid. Right. I mean, I don't watch it regularly, but a couple of months ago I was kind of watching the show. I kind of reached out and was like, Hey, you know, do you guys know anyone on the show? And that's how I got like hooked up. So yeah, And I'm like, wait, I'm really going on? That's awesome. Okay.
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And they're like, you're going on Celebrity Jeopardy. So I watched the Celebrity Jeopardy episodes from last season and I figured I could get like 60% of the answers. But you get there and you don't realize how hard it is to buzz in in time. Because if you buzz before the light turns on- I've heard this over and over.
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Why can't I make fun of you in the replies on Twitter anymore?
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Well, yeah. I bought this cheap buzzer on Amazon. Impressive. But it didn't do anything. So I'm watching the TV at home, watching old Celebrity Jeopardy episodes from last year, and I'm like, oh, buzz in, buzz in. But the problem is when you're there, you're not allowed to buzz until the light comes on. And if you buzz too early, you get locked out for a quarter second.
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And that quarter second makes a huge difference. So I was actually behind... the people I was against most of the show I felt when I was buzzing and I'm like, I know the answer. And I kept missing, I kept missing. So I still did.
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When they show the question on a huge screen, so the whole screen gives you the question right away. So you can read ahead, you can read ahead, just read the whole thing. Boom. Then you have to wait for Ken Jennings to finish. As soon as he finishes enunciating the last syllable of the last word, the light turns on. But here's what I found out.
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There is a delay of about 150 to 200 milliseconds difference between your eyes and your ears. You actually hear stuff before you see stuff. And which is really interesting, like for your brain to register it. And people have different delays. But for me, I'm like waiting for the light and then I buzz in and it's too late because... the people next to me have buzzed in.
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Did you block my ability to reply to you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
But anyway, I was a little wound up going into this. I called Jason Kuhn, because I realized there's no upside. By the time I show up, I'm like, I'm going to look like an absolute idiot for saying some stupid stuff, getting answers wrong, which of course, everyone texts me last night being like, how'd you miss Hoosiers? How'd you miss this? All right, here we go.
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Answer there, Daily Double.
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It's not my best category. I'll do 4,000. You look great, too.
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What is Hoops?
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What am I doing? You were right. I'm so embarrassed. It's called Hoosiers.
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Hoop, dude.
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Hoosiers.
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Gene Hackman, he died today. And no one sends me a text being like, oh, I can't believe you got that answer. Great job. Everyone just sends the text. How did you not get Hoosiers? How did you not get Cream? It's always like, oh, I knew the answer. Well, we all know the answer to different ones. Yeah. And I realize as I'm walking into Jeopardy, I'm like, you know what? There's no upside.
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Because what will happen is everyone will just call you an idiot for the things you missed, which is.
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We don't know until all the quarterfinals are over. And that'll be in the next couple of weeks here.
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Yeah, that was sports movies, like big moments.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
But dude, you don't understand. Like, look, I'm not a guy who gets very nervous. I don't get like stage fright or like wound up. But for Jeopardy, it's so weird. You're up there and you can't focus or concentrate like you normally can. My brain had these like weird brain farts where I'm like, I know the answer. Why isn't it coming out? Or I buzz in and I said like Beethoven instead of Debussy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
And I'm like, why did that come out? God, for Claire de Lune, you don't have to. I mean, dude, don't get me started. So there's weird stuff that happens up there that's really hard to explain. And then you're angry about the buzzing and you can't buzz in in time and you're on the set of Jeopardy and it's like, oh my God, I'm actually on the set of Jeopardy. It's also real.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
And you're like watching the scores. Are there people? It's very overwhelming. You're an audience?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Yeah, there's a live audience. How many people, like a hundred people there? About a hundred people, yeah. Yeah, well, that's nice. Yeah. Before you go on the show, they have you do a practice round in front of the audience, just so you get, everyone gets used to it. Got it. And I deliberately answered wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
And I was like acting like an idiot and acting like I couldn't buzz and acting like I didn't know the answers. You leveled them? I tried to be like... Oh, he leveled him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Yeah, I don't really know what I'm doing here. Ooh, sharp elbows. Yeah. And then I came out swinging and I felt like I had to kind of get aggressive out the gate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
I have to say... Money for the Humane Society of the United States. All the money went to charity, Humane Society of the U.S.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
If you win the whole tournament, it's a million dollars. And then I think- That's a lot of dog food. As the winner, your charity gets more and the losers, their charity gets less, but it's a fixed amount. It's like 30,000 or 50,000 or something like that. Nice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Oh my God, Ed. That sounds so compelling. Would you do it? Actually, Jake, would you do that? Would you do it? All the profits.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Grift. Endless grifting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
What gives Chamath happiness is hurting others. That's exactly that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
That's his love language.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Are you an investor in his company?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Nice. That's really good. It's the first show from J. Kyle Productions. If I'm the judge, then what does that make you? Are you like the bailiff?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
They had their chance. They had their chance. They could have gone for Bobby. They drove Bobby out of the party. That's not their only chance. He didn't start as an independent. He started as a Democrat. I know by his last name that he's a Democrat. A Kennedy Democrat. Kind of in the name. You had Dean Phillips. Dean Phillips took the chance. And of course, he was pushed out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Not of the party, but basically ostracized. They had their chance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah, I mean, they translate what you just said, which is the Democrats hope to put Trump in jail using lawfare. And when that fails, they realize that they're going to lose the election to him and they've got a big problem. So they're going to try some desperate strategy to find a new candidate. But it's way too late for that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Ryan Seacrest.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I don't understand how you could say this wasn't nefarious. This whole thing was nefarious from top to bottom.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
The fear and cleavage site makes it clear that this was a lab leak. That's not a naturally occurring virus. The fear and cleavage sites were engineered.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Please give me a couple of minutes to kind of lay out what happened here. Okay, so... Fauci knew very early, as early as February 1st of 2020, that COVID came from a lab leak. The scientists said, so all they had to do was look under a microscope and see the furin cleavage site, which is not naturally occurring.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It's something that was added, basically bioengineered to the virus in order to make it more transmissible in humans. So they knew right away that this somehow came from a lab leak. And Fauci and Collins said in emails that they were going to begin a brutal takedown in order to conceal this fundamental truth of the lab leak from the public. Now, why would Fauci need to conceal this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Because he had funded gain-of-function research programs via Peter Daszak and the EcoHealth Alliance to conduct, again, gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Moreover, Fauci was personally responsible for reversing an Obama era decision to prohibit gain of function research because it was so risky. Fauci wrote op-eds justifying gain of function research.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
He wrote a paper in 2012, which was actually quite candid about the risks of gain of function. He describes the kind of lab leak that could occur in the type of virus that could escape from a lab. because of gain-of-function, but then he says that it's a risk worth taking.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
So this is somebody who funded the Wuhan lab, he funded gain-of-function research, he was personally responsible for lifting the ban on gain-of-function research. He had a lot of reasons to wanna hide the fact That COVID was engineered in a lab and was lab leak.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And so we know that even before this conspiracy to basically defraud the FOIA request, that Fauci had done things like organize that letter to the Lancet, which smeared and demonized scientists who were trying to tell the truth. saying that the so-called zoological theory was nonsense, this had to be from a lab.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
He was doing things like this, and now we have this added piece, which is this longtime colleague of Fauci and Collins at NIH, Dr. David Behrens, developed a strategy for evading FOIA requests that would expose the truth
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
He did this by deleting government emails, which is a crime, by using private email to conduct government business, which is also a crime, and then strategically misspelling names and titles to frustrate the FOIA searches. And then the craziest part is that Morenz foolishly detailed his schemes in emails that Fauci would have seen, that Fauci was on the distribution list of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
So he has no plausible deniability.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
You have to see the FOIA piece within the overall picture here, which is Fauci from the get-go was lying about the origins of COVID in order to cover up his role in funding this type of research. And there was a comprehensive effort by people at NIH, likely at Fauci's direction, to again, not just cover this up, but to smear
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Scientists were on the offensive in addition to trying to cover their assets. Yeah, people like Jay Bhattacharya, who then got censored and banned on social media.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
We're hosting an event for President Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I'm sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah, we're hosting an event for the once and future president. 45 and soon to be 47. Who's we? As I saw from your own polling data that you tweeted this morning, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
So who knows? And polling historically has underestimated Trump's support because people have been reluctant to say they're supporting him for some reason. So, yeah, things are looking very positive for Trump right now. But in any event, we're hosting a fundraiser for him. Oh, wow. He said that he wants to come on the All In pod at some point, so we just need to schedule that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah. And by the way, there are internal NIH emails that suggest that COVID leaked from a level two facility. They call it BSL-2, which does not operate with the top level biohazard safeguards. So they knew the Wuhan lab was not at the level of safeguards that it should have been. But look, I would go deeper and say that why would you do this kind of research at all?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I mean, you are deliberately manipulating viruses in order to make them transmissible in humans. This was a bat virus that was not transmissible to humans. It was bioengineered. They had the furin cleavage site to allow it to gain access to human cells. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It's a possibility that's so remote. I mean, look, I heard Professor Jeffrey Sachs talking about this in a recent interview, and he went through the whole history. He said there's like 200 of these coronaviruses in this class or category, and there's not one furin-cubic site among any of them. So can you say that there's not a one in a billion chance of it happening naturally?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I guess, but it's a very, very, very low probability event.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Number one, you don't do this type of gain-of-function research. Number two, if you are going to do it, you don't do it at a level two facility like the Wuhan lab. Number three, when the virus leaks from the lab, you don't basically lie about it and conduct a cover-up campaign that smears the reputation of honest scientists.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Number four, when you're hauled into the Oval Office in response to this once-in-a-century pandemic, you don't pretend like you're America's doctor and you have all the answers when, in fact, you're the guy who created this problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And by the way, we did this for, let's not forget, we did this for RFK Jr. He appeared on the pod. We did a fundraiser for him. We did it for Vaik Ramaswamy. He came on the pod. We did a fundraiser for him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Why would you do this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
There are many scientists who are opposed to gain of function research. They thought it was unduly risky and didn't have offsetting benefits. And that is exactly why Obama banned it. Very good decision. To me, this whole idea that we need to amplify these viruses in order to find out what would happen if this happened naturally is insane. You didn't have this problem until you created it. Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
This is nutty.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah, that's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Steel man the opposite side. Let me build on a point Chamath made, which is, I think we have to ask the question, what type of government do we really have? You know, we call ourselves a democracy, but are you a democracy when the elected leaders come and go and the really powerful bureaucrats running the government, running these agencies, stay for decades and decades?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And if the president disagrees with their policy, they can just wait them out. Fauci wanted to do gain-of-function research. Maybe, by the way, at the behest of DOD, we don't know. It could have been a bioweapon or biodefense program. There's a lot more to this that we don't even know about yet. In any event, it's clear he was passionately committed to funding gain-of-function research.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
He just waited for his opportunity and implemented it as well. Victoria Nuland in the State Department. passionately committed to basically bringing Ukraine into NATO and using that to essentially provoke a regime change operation in Russia. Again, she just had to wait for her opportunity to basically keep pushing these policies for decades.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
These are the people who are really running the American government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Right. It's called the deep state, right? You ever hear the expression deep state? It sounds conspiratorial. It's not. It's just the permanent bureaucracy. We elect a president, but how many people does the president actually appoint? A couple hundred? 99.9% of the people running the government are there permanently.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I don't think it has anything to do with Trump. I think it's got everything to do with the fact that the New York Times was covering for Fauci. Fauci has been there for decades. He is a major source for the New York Times, just like he was a major funder of grant programs, right? So there's a lot of people who have developed a dependency on Fauci.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
There's no question that the New York Times was covering for this. The New York Times definitely promoted the idea that anyone pushing the lab leak theory was somehow a conspiracy theorist or a nut.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
They were pushing that whole crazy wet market theory. Well, the wet market theory. The pangolin. The pangolin. Remember the pangolin?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
That's why it was a great cover story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
There's many crazy parts of this, but I think maybe the craziest part of the whole thing is that when the pandemic happens and the elected government of the United States, the president, needs to pull in the resources to manage a policy response, who do they pull in? Fauci, the guy who created the problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It's kind of like when they have Nuland be our chief diplomat in the State Department, and she's fomented the coup in Kiev in 2014. Again, these bureaucrats are doing the exact opposite of what they're supposed to be doing. They're not protecting public health.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
But I think to answer your question, what do we do about it? I think we just got to clean out the stables here. I think we just got to disband some of these government departments. Why do we have so many? This whole alphabet soup of three-letter agencies. I think Vivek Ramaswamy had the right idea. Let's just get rid of a bunch of these things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And kudos to Rand Paul, too. Remember when he was in the fourth?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
But to your point about what does this mean for our democracy, I want to just bring up the Semaphore article where they polled young people and young voters. They despair over U.S. politics. They describe the United States as a dying empire led by bad people. I mean, after what we've learned about COVID, and I would argue also the whole background to the Ukraine war. They're not wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Is this right? Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I think it's really interesting how the crypto community is getting organized into basically a lobby to advocate for its interests.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Did you know that? Yeah, they've been so targeted over the last few years because... Gensler and Warren have been on a crusade to basically make crypto illegal or drive it offshore. Well, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. And now the crypto people have basically had a political awakening and realized they have to get involved in the political system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
This is a matter of defense, self-defense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
He's a pioneer. Yeah. Well, not like that. I mean, that guy was a crook.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Did you hear this rumor that- He was doing that to basically push for regulatory capture. Remember? I think it's a nuanced point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Roy, how's Saxcoin doing? We had Saxcoin and we had- Oh, gosh.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
If you get a DM from me, I am not selling Jcoin until you hear it first.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah, the Jason coin is basically at zero. Man, it was worth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah. To be clear, I didn't have anything to do with Saks coin either, but I was more amused by it than anything else.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Look, donating to a local candidate is an individual choice that each person's going to have to decide if they want to do it. Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah. If you're willing to open your pocketbook, which I know Jason's not something that you're inclined to do very often.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Well, I think it's pretty amazing that Salesforce lost something like $40 billion of market cap because of a revenue miss of $40 million. It's amazing how these relatively small, in percentage terms, misses in revenue or earnings drive such huge changes in market cap. It's quite a ripple, isn't it? Yeah. I mean, look, my view is that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I don't have a strong view about the stock, but my sense is it's probably a buying opportunity. I mean, I think Salesforce is still a great company. Mark Benioff's a great CEO. He's always positioned the company to chase after whatever the current thing is. So, obviously, he was one of the first to realize that software was headed to the cloud. evangelize for the cloud.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Then when the social networking revolution happened, he launched Chatter, which was a competitor to my product Yammer back then, but he was ahead of the curve on social and the enterprise. Then it was big data and they launched Einstein. Now they've got AI and they're going to be doing a bunch of different things there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
So my guess is he's going to figure out how to take advantage of this AI trend for the company. They're not going to miss it. They're not going to get caught totally flat footed. So, look, I don't have a super strong point of view on it as an investment, but I still think it's a good company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I'm honestly not worried about the per seat model. I mean, the point of a pricing plan should be to align... revenue expansion with ROI, meaning the more value that a customer gets from your product, the more they're willing to pay. And you just need some proxy for measuring that. Seats are a good proxy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It's a good way to measure how much value the customer's getting out of your product, because the more seats they're buying, the more value they must be getting. Yes, you could do it some other way. You could basically meter data usage. You could meter API usage. Sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Those models will work for other kinds of companies, but I don't think there's going to be a huge disruption to the seed model is my sense. Look, I think the bigger issue here is that their forecast was soft, right? They are forecasting, what, sub-10% revenue growth. And this is why the stock got punished.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And I'm seeing that a bunch of SaaS companies are kind of hurting today now in the wake of this. They're down like 5%, not 20%. So I wonder if what the market is wondering is whether there's a more general slowdown that we're on the precipice of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
That's just what a lot of public market investors do. I don't think it's a coincidence that we just had the GDP forecast revised down for the latest quarter. What was it? It's down to like 1.4%. One something, yeah, a million.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
The economy is looking pretty soft right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Remember when everyone was talking about soft landing? Yeah. The reason why they were having that conversation is because the Fed jacked up interest rates really suddenly from roughly 0% to 5%, 5.5%. And it worked. That has an impact on people's consumption because debt is much more expensive. So again, it's hard to buy a house, harder to buy a car. Anything you need to finance gets much harder.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It took a long time for this to work its way through the economy, but I think we're finally seeing it now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Well, I can promise you this. I don't think Trump's going to raise taxes, but Biden will if he has the trifecta.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I can't wait to be there. It's going to easily be paid for by my tax cut.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
We already know what happened when people tried to short Elon. They got incinerated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
What? He's not a CEO of anything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah, now that you know the stock performance, what are you talking about? I just think even in the next coming... So your position is... Your position... You're going to go out on a limb. You're going to go out on a limb and say that when Bill Gates was doing his legendary run, I wouldn't have shorted it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Absolutely. I also wouldn't short Michael Jordan or LeBron James. Steph Curry definitely wouldn't have been against him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Well, first of all, in terms of understanding this case, I think it's important to understand that both Merrick Garland's DOJ and former Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance, they looked at this case, they looked at these charges, and they passed on bringing this case. Alvin Bragg, who's a Soros-funded DA, he won a hotly contested race to succeed Vance by pledging to get Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And that's why he brought this case. And in order to bring these charges, he had to use a creative legal formula that turned a misdemeanor charge of falsifying business records, a charge that would have been passed the statute of limitations, into a felony by claiming it was in the service of a second crime, but he never named exactly what that crime was or proved that it happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think it's safe to say that a case like this, which is novel and creative and torturous, would never have been brought against anybody but Trump. Now, there's about five different grounds for appeal on this. Number one, the judge is a Biden donor with a daughter who works for Biden.
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Number two, prejudicial and irrelevant evidence was admitted that should have been excluded, including Stormy Daniels' testimony. Number three, Trump was not able to call his expert in election law, former head of FEC Bradley Smith. Number four, The prosecution never named the second crime.
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And then number five, the judge let the jury pick from a range of options for what the second crime might be, including tax crimes for which no evidence was presented and federal election crimes for which the court had no jurisdiction.
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So my guess is that at the end of the day, this case is going to get tossed on appeal, but that's probably going to happen after the election, after November 5th, and Democrats now have what they wanted. They wanted to get out of this case four words, Donald Trump convicted felon. And you're going to be hearing that phrase convicted felon repeated ad nauseum from now until November 5th.
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And I think that's the whole point of this case.
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So well said.
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You just said it was going to be a reverse on appeal. So if you're so confident it's a crime, then why do you also say it's going to get reversed?
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They got escalated because Alvin Bragg got elected to pursue this case.
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I know you're really giddy about this, Jake. I can hear it in your voice.
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No, I'm not. Honestly, I wish. All you're doing is repeating. No, no, no.
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So speak for yourself, not for me. Okay, great. Well, maybe I'm just detecting enthusiasm in your voice. I'm not quite sure what it is.
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You're presenting these documents on the screen that are basically from Alvin Bragg's case. It's all you're doing is repeating his theory of the case, which I must say is extremely tortured and it's novel. I don't think a case like this has ever been brought. And if you are going to bring a case against a former president, it should be for something more than ticky tacky type stuff.
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Stuff that you yourself admit is politically motivated. It's obvious. Bragg was out to get Trump. This is a campaign strategy. You have to bend the law into a pretzel to create the case that you're describing.
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What this reminds me of is, you remember Ken Starr and what they went after Bill Clinton for with the whole Monica Lewinsky thing? Sure. And when that Starr report dropped, you know, and then hundreds of pages of legalities and they described all the prurient behavior and amazing amounts of detail.
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At the end of the day, the American people looked at it and decided that maybe there's a tawdry element to this, but it's personal behavior. And after some period of time, Clinton's popularity rebounded and he actually gained seats in the midterms because the Republicans overplayed their hand. Yeah, totally. And I think in a similar way, it's very clear to me.
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And in fact, you've already said this is politically motivated. And they basically have taken some sort of bookkeeping error that was a misdemeanor that was past the statute of limitations. And they've combined it again with this very novel legal theory about somehow committing fraud in the election, which, by the way, was not actually proven in the case.
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And as part of the jury instructions, again, the judge allowed the jury to have a multiple choice on what the second crime was, which is what a lot of legal experts think will become the basis for appeal. So again, this whole case was tortured. It was politically motivated. I would go so far as to say it's a sham. It's an outrage. And I think people are reacting as though it's an outrage.
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And again, if you're going to bring a case, not just against a former president, but the current front runner to be the next president, it better be something important to Not this ticky tacky thing, the way you describe it as being ticky tacky. Why even waste the public's time with this? Why even spend all the money pursuing this? And I told you why.
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As Donald Trump convicted felon, that's the reason why. The media wants that talking point. And by the way, if you want to make a switcheroo and get a different candidate than Joe Biden, that's not going to happen now because Democrats in the media think that this is their salvation. They know they're running a candidate.
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But here we are. The Democratic Party knows they're running a candidate who can't debate, who can't put two sentences together, who can barely find his way off a stage, whose policies are coming home to roost. The economy, like we talked about on the show, is slowing down very rapidly. His foreign policy is a disaster.
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But they think that somehow this is going to be his salvation, is being able to say that Donald Trump is a felon. That's their plan. And I think at the end of the day, this is probably not going to work.
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yeah it's not gonna work what's amazing is i mean i really haven't gotten any blowback you know there's a question about people ask me have you gotten blowback from this thing and no not really i mean other than the reporter knocking on my door and that kind of stuff but people really same it hasn't really created blowback and i think you guys are getting more blowback and that's an indication of just sort of the cowardly response to it which is
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Maybe the market doesn't like the U.S. becoming a banana republic.
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You know, it's like a cancellation tactic. We're going to try and like go behind your back and ostracize you instead of even telling you to your face what you think. And I think the reason why they're doing that is because, quite frankly, there's a lot of preference falsification going on in Silicon Valley. I know there's a lot of people in Silicon Valley who we know because we know who's coming.
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You have a list of people who don't. I mean, look, nobody is excited about Biden. Okay. Nobody's excited about Biden right now. So the only question is, do they hold their nose and vote for him or do they vote for Trump or do they vote for Bobby Kennedy? But there's a lot of people who I do think support Trump. And look, we've AB tested this, right?
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It'd be different if we didn't have four years of Biden, four years of Trump. There's a lot of people who can look back and say that the AB test we ran was
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indicates trump so i know there's going to be a lot of people who support trump but they don't want to admit it and i think that this event is going to break the ice on that and maybe it'll create a preference cascade where all of a sudden it becomes acceptable to acknowledge the truth and which is a lot of people support trump and it's not just this it's also steve schwartzman came out i think bill ackman's on the edge of coming out for trump so there's a lot of people who are now like flipping and i think it could really start to cascade on itself i
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When's the first debate? June 17th. Can I respond to that, Jason? I saw your tweet basically saying something very similar, that Democrats need to wake up and recognize the situation they're in. I think this is a case of once you've made your bed, you have to sleep in it. Look, The Democrats have set the table pursuing certain policies for the last three and a half years. We've had an open border.
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We had so much spending that it fed into this inflation, which jacked up interest rates. We had Ukraine become the central obsession of focus of our politics, which blew up in Biden's face with the whole summer counteroffensive. I mean, I could go on. You have the hostility to crypto, which they're now trying to desperately backpedal on.
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But you had three years of Elizabeth Warren and Gensler basically making crypto the enemy. And now all of a sudden, we're at first and go at that like 10 yard line. And you're all of a sudden saying, well, just read the room and make all these changes. You can't. You know, I don't think people are going to be fooled by that. We've AB tested this thing.
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We've had three and a half years of Biden, four years of Trump. Who do you like better? And how many months are we from pulling the lever? Five months?
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Why don't you support Bobby Kennedy then?
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Well, I think one of the really cool things about this job is just that when something like this happens, I get to kind of talk to everyone and everyone wants to talk. And I feel like I've talked to maybe not everyone and like all the top people in AI, but it feels like most of them.
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And there's definitely a lot of takes all over the map on DeepSeek, but I feel like I've started to put together a synthesis based on hearing from people. the top people in the field. It was a bit of a freak out. I mean, it's rare that a model release is going to be a global news story or cause a trillion dollars of market cap decline in one day.
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And so it is interesting to think about like, why was this such a potent news story? And I think it's because there's two things about that company that are different. One is that obviously it's a Chinese company rather than an American company. And so you have the whole China versus US competition. And then the other is it's an open source company, or at least an open source, the R1 model.
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And so you've kind of got the whole open source versus closed source debate. And if you take either one of those things out, it probably wouldn't have been such a big story. But I think the synthesis of these things got a lot of people's attention. A huge part of TikTok's audience, for example, is international.
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Some of them like the idea that the US may not win the AI race, that the US is kind of getting a comeuppance here. And I think that fueled some of the early attention on TikTok. Similarly, there's a lot of people who are rooting for open source, or they have animosity towards open AI.
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And so they were kind of rooting for this idea that, oh, there's this open source model that's going to give away what open AI has done at one twentieth the cost. So I think all of these things provided fuel for the story. Now, I think the question is, OK, what should we make of this?
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I mean, I think there are things that are true about the story and then things that are not true or should be debunked. I think that let's call it true thing here is that. If you had said to people a few weeks ago that the second company to release a reasoning model along the lines of 01 would be a Chinese company, I think people would have been surprised by that. So I think there was a surprise.
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And just to kind of back up for people, you know, there's two major kinds of AI models now. There's kind of the base model. LLM model like ChatGPT 4.0 or the deep secret equivalent was V3, which they launched a month ago. And that's basically like a smart PhD. You ask a question, gives you an answer.
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Then there's the new reasoning models, which are based on reinforcement learning, sort of a separate process as opposed to pre-training. And O1 was the first model released along those lines. And You can think of a reasoning model as like a smart PhD who doesn't give you a snap answer, but actually goes off and does the work.
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You can give it a much more complicated question, and it'll break that complicated problem into a subset of smaller problems, and then it'll go step by step to solve the problem. And that's called chain of thought, right? And so...
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The new generation of agents that are coming are based on this type of idea of chain of thought that an AI model can sequentially perform tasks, figure out much more complicated problems. So OpenAI was the first to release this type of reasoning model. Google has a similar model they're working on called Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking.
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They've released kind of an early prototype of this called Deep Research 1.5. Anthropic has something, but I don't think they've released it yet. So other companies have... similar models to O1, either in the works or in some sort of private beta. But DeepSeq was really the next one after OpenAI to release the full public version of it. And moreover, they open sourced it.
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And so this created a pretty big splash. And I think it was legitimately surprising to people that the next big company to put out a reasoning model like this would be a Chinese company. And moreover, that they would open source it, give it away for free. And I think the API access is something like one twentieth the cost. So all of these things really did drive the news cycle.
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And I think for good reason, because I think that if you had asked most people in the industry a few weeks ago how far behind is china on ai models they would say 6 to 12 months and now i think they might say something more like three to six months right because o1 was released about four months ago and r1 is comparable to that so i think it's definitely moved up people's time frames for
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how close China is on AI. Now, we should take the claim that they only did this for $6 million. On this one, I'm with Palmer Luckey and Brad Gerstner and others, and I think this has been pretty much corroborated by everyone I've talked to that that number should be debunked. So first of all, it's very hard to validate a claim about how much money went into the training of this model.
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It's not something that we can empirically discover. But even if you accepted it at face value, that $6 million was for the final training run. So when the media is hyping up these stories saying that this Chinese company did it for $6 million and these dumb American companies did it for a billion, It's not an apples to apples comparison, right?
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I mean, if you were to make the apples to apples comparison, you would need to compare the final training run cost by DeepSeek to that of OpenAI or Anthropic. And what the founder of Anthropic said, and what I think Brad has said, being an investor in OpenAI and having talked to them, is that the final training run cost was more in the tens of millions of dollars about nine or 10 months ago.
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And so, you know, it's not 6 million versus a billion, okay?
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Yeah, it's not fair to compare, let's call it a soup to nuts number, a fully loaded number by American AI companies to the final training run by the Chinese company.
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Like I said, I think it is hard to validate the number. I think that if, let's just assume that we give them credit for the 6 million number. My point is less that they couldn't have done it, but just that we need to be comparing likes to likes.
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So if, for example, you're gonna look at the fully loaded cost of what it took DeepSeq to get to this point, then you would need to look at what has been the R&D cost to date of all the models and all the experiments and all the training runs they've done, and the compute cluster that they surely have.
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So Dylan Patel, who's leading semiconductor analyst, has estimated that DeepSeq has about 50,000 hoppers. And specifically, he said they have about 10,000 H100s, they have 10,000 H800s, and 30,000 H20s.
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DeepSeek plus the hedge fund. But it's the same founder, right? And by the way, that doesn't mean they did anything illegal, right? Because the H100s were banned under export controls in 2022. Then they did the H800s in 2023. But this founder was very farsighted. He was very ahead of the curve. And he was, through his hedge fund, he was using AI to basically do algorithmic trading.
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So he bought these chips a while ago. In any event, you add up the cost of a compute cluster with 50,000 plus hoppers, and it's going to be over a billion dollars. So this idea that you've got this scrappy company that did it for only 6 million, just not true. They have a substantial compute cluster that they use to train their models.
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And frankly, that doesn't count any chips that they might have beyond the $50,000 that they might have obtained in violation of export restrictions that obviously they're not going to admit to. And we just don't know. We don't really know the full extent of what they have. So I just think it's worth pointing that out, that I think that part of the story got overhyped.
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ChatGPT and OpenAI at the same time. Just to clean that up. They're hosting their own copy of it, right? Yes. Because R1's been open source.
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Well, whatever. I mean, look, Amazon's going to host their own version of R1. Grok has a version of R1. Yeah, we have one. Cerebrus just rolled out. It's open source now.
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Let me address the distillation point. So I mentioned this a few days ago on Fox News that I thought it was likely or possible that distillation had occurred. And there was some evidence for this. And it became like a news story. And I didn't even realize that. saying that would be news because it's kind of an open secret in Silicon Valley.
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Everyone I talk to... They're doing some level of distillation. Yeah.
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Yeah. And every single person I've talked to basically has agreed that there was some distillation here from open AI. Now, that doesn't mean it was the only thing going on here. I mean, to be sure, the DeepSeq team is very smart, and there were some innovations, but also there was some distillation. And really, this wasn't even...
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a fresh news story, I think, from the point of view of Silicon Valley, because a month ago, we had a press cycle in Silicon Valley when DeepSeek's V3 model came out, that DeepSeek V3 was self-identifying as ChatGPT. When you would ask it, who are you? Like, what model are you? Five out of eight times, V3 would tell you that it was ChatGPT-4.
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And there's lots of videos and examples of this online that have been posted, right? The point is that we knew a month ago that v3 had been trained on a substantial amount of ChatGPT output, obviously, because v3 was self-identifying as ChatGPT. And there's two ways that that could have happened.
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So the, let's call it innocent explanation, is that DeepSeek had crawled the web and found lots of published output from ChatGPT and then trained on that. And that wouldn't be a violation of OpenAI's terms of service or their IP. Or the other explanation would be that they used the API from OpenAI and basically, you know... Went to town. Yeah, went to town.
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And there's no way, I think, based on what we know, to prove that one way or another. But I know what most people think happened. And at the end of the day, OpenAI can probably figure it out. And they've indicated that they think there was some improper distillation here.
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Right. That's what I'm referring to.
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But in that paper, they're very hazy about where the data is coming from. And they're fairly transparent about everything else they did, but they're not really clear about the data. And specifically, they say that to get from V3, which is the base model, to R1, which is the reasoning model, They had about 800,000 samples of reasoning.
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They were quite unclear about where those reasoning samples came from. By the way, it is remarkable that you can get from a base model to an R1 with just 800,000 samples.
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So there's a thing called Jevons paradox, which kind of speaks to this concept. Satya actually tweeted about it, which is the it's an economic concept where as the the cost of a particular use goes down, the aggregate demand decreases. for all consumption of that thing goes up. So the basic idea is that as the price of AI gets cheaper and cheaper, we're going to want to use more and more of it.
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So you might actually get more spending on it in the aggregate. That's right. Because more and more applications will become cost-efficient. Economically feasible. Economically feasible, exactly. That is, I think, a powerful argument for why companies are going to want to continue to innovate on frontier models.
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You guys are taking a very strong point of view that open source is definitely going to win, that the leading model companies are all going to get commoditized, and therefore there'll be no return on capital and basically continue to innovate on the frontier. I'm not sure that's true.
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For one thing, the R1 model is basically comparable to O1, which OpenAI released four months ago and was training on internally, call it nine or 10 months ago. So... OpenAI is on O3 now. Its frontier is ahead of where R1 is. Anthropic and Google, I think, have things in the work, and even Meta, that may be ahead of where R1 is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
So I think R1, or DeepSeek's done a good job being a fast follower here. It's not clear that this is the frontier. And those frontier model companies now, having seen what might have happened with distillation, have a pretty strong incentive to make sure that doesn't happen again. And they're going to be taking countermeasures. I mean, there's a question of how much you can do to stop it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
But I think it's a little premature to conclude that there's no reward for being at the frontier.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
One final point on the whole open source versus closed source. Look, I'm not going to take sides in that. But I think that it's a mistake to just view what happened here as, oh, it's this like plucky upstart that's like doing the community a huge service out of the goodness of its heart. You know, it's basically open sourcing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
It's a Chinese, come on. You still have this huge geopolitical aspect to it, right? And DeepSeek is a Chinese company and they're trying to catch up. And so if you're behind and you're trying to catch up, then open source is a strategy that actually really makes sense for you. And they're trying to basically undercut the leading American companies. And I don't think they did it with $6 million.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I mean, they have massive resources behind them. So I think some of the the pro deep seek vibes, I think are, they're a little bit naive, you know, in Silicon Valley.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I think there's a lot of like support for deep seek. Yeah, there is. In Silicon Valley. Because, again, people think that they're doing this huge service for the community. And I think it's a little bit more self-interested than that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
By the way, did you guys notice that JCal was plugging his product there in the background, even though it has absolutely nothing to do with what Travis was saying?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Nothing's changed. Zax is here. No one else even noticed that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
week? It's been amazing. I mean, it's hard to believe it's only been a week, right? So you're in the White House or that building next to it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I have an office in the old executive office building, otherwise known as the Eisenhower building. And then I have a pass where I can just walk over to the West Wing if I want to walk over to it. There's kind of a whole White House complex behind the gates that the West Wing's part of it and the Eisenhower building and There's a couple other buildings in that complex. It's really cool.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
It is really neat to show up for work at the White House.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
It is really cool. It's awesome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
There is a commissary actually in the White House called the Navy Mess. And I think they're just opening up for business now. That is one of the cooler things you could do is you could take people to lunch at the Navy Mess.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
J. Cal just invited himself. We'll see.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I look forward to taking Chamath and Freeburg there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
But, Reid, I mean, Elon put in the first, what, $44 million, and he doesn't have any shares. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
But do you think that he kind of got screwed because he doesn't have any shares? I mean, at the time he put in the $44 million, it was never going to be a for-profit. Now it's a for-profit. A lot of people are profiting, assuming the paper mark ends up being realized. So he doesn't own anything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I mean, if you were the seed investor and put up $44 million in something and then everyone's making money and you don't have any shares, forget about the legal technicalities. Wouldn't you have a feeling of being screwed?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
So I agree that her approach has been overly broad and has had a chilling effect on M&A. And so, J. Cal, like you said, we've lost those base hit- acquisitions that I think are important to the venture capital market that help new startups get funded. I mean, if the returns on risk capital go down, there's going to be less of it. Yeah, so I agree with Reid on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The area where I'm not sure we agree is, and where I do agree with Lina Khan, is I do think the big tech companies have too much power. I do think that they are monopolies or have monopolies And I do think they need to be controlled. I just think that, you know, I wouldn't prevent them from doing any M&A whatsoever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I'm curious if Reid, like, agrees with that, that the big tech companies have too much power or agrees with Lena Kahn on that. And I guess specifically, do you think any big tech companies should be broken up? If so, which ones? I mean, I would actually entertain that idea of deconglomerating or breaking up some of these big tech companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Do you think, do you agree that big tech is too much power or not?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yeah, I think when we met through Peter, you know, and Reid, I think Reid was on the board of, it was Confinity back then and then joined full time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Okay, so wait. So that brings up an interesting point. One of the things we've talked about in this pod is that we shouldn't shut down M&A, but the FTC should limit anti-competitive tactics by these big tech companies. Yep. Apple, really good example because they drive everything through the app store. You're not allowed to do side loading. They want to take, what is it, 30% piece of any sales.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
You're not even allowed to have a link inside an application to drive the user to the website. Except in Europe now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
So would you at least want to crack down on those anti-competitive tactics? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I guess I would have been 27 when I first joined PayPal, 27, 28, I guess something like that. Yeah, 99, so whatever that was. In any event, I mean, I'll just return the compliment. PayPal had all these existential issues where you had these larger entities trying to kill us. Visa, MasterCard, eBay, who else? Yeah. Oh, the lust goes on city bank. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And Reed was kind of our emissary who kept all these dogs at bay and managed to, I guess, be friends with them, I guess, to some degree, even though they wanted to kill us. And Reed was kind of in charge of making sure that these existential issues didn't blow up on us. And they didn't. So we got pretty lucky there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Hold on, J. Cal, can we just stay on this topic for a second? I think this is important. Sure, of course you can. Okay, so in Michigan and Wisconsin, you had Democratic groups. They fought. RFK Jr. 's bid to get on the ballot. Okay, they failed. Now he wants to get off the ballot, but they won't take him off now that they think that his presence hurts Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And at the same time, Michigan's trying to remove Cornel West and Wisconsin's trying to remove Jill Stein. So I'm curious, do you think there's any principle on display here besides naked partisan hackery? I mean, basically, the Democrats fought... having third parties on the ballot when they thought it would hurt Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And now they want to keep them on the ballot when they think it's going to hurt Trump, except for those third party candidates who they still think will hurt Harris. So is there any principle here or is this just partisan hackery?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
If the Secretary of State of Colorado throws Trump off the ballot, for example, is that legal process if it's then overruled by the Supreme Court? Or can we just say substantively that states shouldn't be removing candidates from the ballot? That's anti-democratic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
No, that's not what I said. Oh, OK.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
No, no, no. The rule is that – well, first of all, I don't think that Democratic groups should be suing RFK to keep him off the ballot. And that's what he said is that Democratic groups were suing to keep him off the ballot and they were trying to exhaust his resources so he couldn't mount an effective campaign. And some of those groups you funded, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
So maybe you didn't know what they were doing. But in any event, I consider that to be anti-democratic. RFK is now trying to remove his name from the ballot. I think as a candidate you're allowed to do that. And those same groups that once fought to keep him off the ballot are trying to keep his name on the ballot. Oh, really?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yeah, because now they perceive the political calculation to be a little different. So I don't see any of this as being democratic. This to me is just partisan hackery, isn't it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I have no problem with drawing attention to issues, but I do think fundamentally it's anti-democratic to sue third party candidates to the point where they can't be on the ballot. Okay, let me ask you directly, Cornel West. There's an effort right now to remove Cornel West from the ballot in Michigan. Do you support that or would you oppose that? I mean, is that democracy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Okay, fair enough.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Well, but the reason why Kamala Harris proposed the price fixing proposal, price gouging, whatever you want to call it, was in response to inflation. In other words, we've had 20% erosion in purchasing power over the last four years. Harris needs a response to that. So she came forward with this new economic proposal. So it's in that context this came up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
This wasn't some proposal by the far left of the party. unless you consider Kamala Harris to be far left, I actually do. But okay, fair enough. But my point is just, this is her proposal. And it's in response to inflation. I mean, you understand what causes inflation, right? It's like the government printing too much money. It's not greedy corporations raising their prices too much.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I mean, do you agree with that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
chicken, stuff like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I mean, I could disagree with you on the border. I think, you know, Kamala... Harris used to be considered the border czar that's gotten scrubbed. I don't think she's done a great job on that, but whatever. I want to go back to issues that affect Silicon Valley. 25% unrealized gains tax. It seems like most of Silicon Valley, almost all of it, either disagrees with this or is up in arms about this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I think, J. Cal, you said that this is disqualifying. It's a line in the sand.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
So, I mean, do you agree that a large unrealized gains tax, 25%, would be a disaster for Silicon Valley and the whole startup ecosystem? Or, I mean, how do you come down on that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Then why isn't it disqualifying the way that J-Cal says? Are we just supposed to hope? I'll tell you why.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yeah, and by the way, one of the things— You keep bringing that up, but Trump has said that he would veto, he would not support a national ban on abortion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yeah. And by the way, just returning the issue to the states, it's not outlawing abortion. And by the way, at the state level- Ask the people in Austin. You can't get abortions here in Texas. Well, but that's- Women can't make a choice here. They have not had a ballot initiative. They have not had a ballot initiative there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Just about everywhere there's been a ballot initiative, the pro-choice forces have won. And besides, that's a state issue now, J. Cal, not federal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Well, look, I mean, I have been consistent on this pod for years that I thought that the, let's call it the extreme pro-life side was not good for the Republican Party, and I've been opposed to it. I don't think it's what J-Cal says. I think that overturning Roe v. Wade did not abolish abortion. It basically returned the issue to the states.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And if you look at the referenda that have happened, they've pretty much all gone the pro-choice direction. So I think that the overturning of Roe v. Wade has actually allowed the country to sort of sort out that issue, although it's not completely sorted out. But look, I would not support a national abortion. I would not support re-federalizing the issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I think there's a lot of issues about war and peace where I do not support the, you could say the establishment neoconstrant within the party. I do not support all these interventions. I do not support these forever wars. And there is a big debate in the party about that. Now, one of the reasons why at the end of the day, I support Trump is I know this will strike some people as
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
counterintuitive, but I think he is the moderate within the Republican Party. He's a moderate on abortion. I know, J. Cal, you're still bitter about that Supreme Court case. However, he's been very, very clear that he will not support national abortion ban. Moreover, he took the abortion language out of the Republican platform. I think he's the moderate on issues of war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
He was the first Republican candidate to run opposing Bush's forever wars. So I give him credit on those things. On style, he may not come across as a moderate, but those are style points. I think on issues, he is the moderate. The issue I have with Kamala Harris is I don't think she's a moderate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
So just to take this 25% unrealized gains tax first, when this issue came up, we were assured, well, she doesn't really believe that, even though it was in the Democratic platform and it was in the Biden-Harris budget. Then people said, well, maybe it's part of her platform, but it's not a priority for her.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And we just had one of her top economic advisors come out on, I think it was CNBC, defending it. And her campaign confirmed that she supports it. So now the argument has become, well, she supports it. It is really part of the platform. She would do it if she could, but she's not going to be able to do it. I just don't think that's a ringing endorsement of a candidate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I don't think you want to support a candidate because they're not going to be able to do what they really want to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Honestly, I'm not sure what I think of that proposal. I guess it depends on the details. I'm not endorsing it. I'm not opposing it. But just back to this point that should we support Kamala Harris even though we oppose all the policies that her campaign says she supports?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Because it seems like that's the argument now, is that Silicon Valley is expected to support Harris, even though she wants, and her campaign has confirmed, she wants a 44% capital gains tax. She wants a 25% unrealized gains tax. These are things that I think the vast majority of Silicon Valley considers to be disastrous for the startup ecosystem. Should we support her in spite of those things?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yes, exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Is that the thing that Ron Conway just tweeted? He might have. I don't know if he just tweeted. No, no, no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And when Bill eventually did meet his demise at PayPal, it was called the Nuthouse Coup.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Well, he was whacked at a board meeting, not at the Nuthouse, but certain plans were formulated at the back of Antonio's Nuthouse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I don't see how it's rule of law when you have a district attorney, Alvin Bragg, who's elected on a promise to get Trump. He then takes what are at most a bookkeeping misdemeanor that's passed the statute of limitations, that's expired. And he turns into 34 felony charges on a legal theory that was never explained to the jury.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And then basically Trump is convicted in a sham trial by a hyper-partisan New York jury system so that Democrats can then run on the branding that he's a, quote, convicted felon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I don't think it's rule of law. Hold on. I don't think it's rule of law. I don't want to get Reid's feedback too, but let me just finish my point. I don't think it's rule of law when Trump is prosecuted on a documents charge that Biden himself is guilty of. He's got all these documents in his garage for decades, which the judge has thrown out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And we've seen a bunch of these lawfare cases where Trump has ultimately prevailed. The judge has thrown it out or he's went on appeal. So that seems to me like abuse of the legal system for a partisan political goal, not rule of law.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
So what's the two that he's been convicted, J. Cal? What's the other one besides the Alvin Bragg case?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
you know, kind of... Democrats are trying to put Trump in jail for 700 years. These cases are still outstanding. They want to put him in jail, Reid. Do you think Trump should go to jail?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
So I think that's... Why were these cases, why did they wait for two years on these cases so they could bring them in an election year?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Maybe he wants to campaign this year instead of being stuck in a courtroom.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Jack Smith just filed new charges, new charges. And all this stems from January 6th. In the wake of January 6th, Merrick Garland's Justice Department did an analysis of whether Trump could be prosecuted for incitement, whether he incited that mob. And the legal memo came back and they said, no, we don't have a case here. It does not meet the legal bar for incitement.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Then it was reported by the New York Times that Biden thought that Merrick Garland was basically being a wimp and they need to go after Trump. So the hyper-partisan DA or prosecutor Jack Smith was hired and he came up with a novel legal theory that somehow Trump had perpetrated a fraud on the American people. Never been seen before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And since then, he's been prosecuting Trump and seeking to put him in prison. And when the Supreme Court just kicked the legs out from under his case with a recent decision, he just refiled charges. I don't understand how anyone can look at this and say, yeah, look, what happened on January 6th wasn't great, but the DOJ looked at it. It wasn't criminal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
But yet they've been pursuing this guy, seeking to put him away for the rest of his life, seeking to interfere with this election, seeking to deprive the American people of a choice. On a separate track, you've got Democrats in states like Colorado literally removing Trump from the ballot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I just have to fact check that no police officers were killed. Where are you getting that from?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
No, no, no. There was one cop who had a seizure later. It wasn't part of the riot. No police officers were killed as a part of the riot. I just have to fact check that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Wait, he's going to hire January 6th rioters? He's going to hire them? Yeah. I haven't heard that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Reid had to run, but let's just thank him for appearing on the pod. And I thought it was a good conversation. But I thought he approached it in good faith. And kudos to him for stepping into the lion's den. He was great. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Exfoliant.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yeah. Look how many buns he's got going. I know. It's just tragic. I feel uncomfortable for your neck. I mean, it's like creeping all the way up. Your neck looks like a prisoner.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Right, right. To be more precise, is the investment driven by ROI? Or does everyone just say, this is so strategic, we just have to win it and we'll throw all the resources we have to at this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Well, let me pick up on those themes, J. Cal. First of all, I want to commend Bobby on running an upbeat and positive campaign. You were and still are the most articulate and powerful champion of free speech over censorship, civil liberties over the surveillance state, peace over war. You've spoken about the issue of chronic health.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
which, to be honest, is an issue I didn't know that much about, but I think you've put it now on the political radar screen in a way that it's not going away. So I think you ran a very noble and effective campaign. And I think, like you said, it was a campaign for the soul of the Democratic Party. You know, I think you...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
represented issues that in the days of your father and President John F. Kennedy, these would have been Democratic Party issues. How did the Democratic Party respond? They effectively ran you out. They did not give you the chance. They conducted lawfare to keep you off the ballot. They didn't let you debate. I heard your running mates say they even tried to infiltrate your campaign.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And all the while, this party was claiming to be the party of democracy. I find that incredibly hypocritical. I think that if they had given you the opportunity to debate, I think we now know what would have happened. I mean, we saw what happened when Biden actually debated Trump is there's a complete implosion of Biden's campaign.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
We discovered that indeed the Democratic Party had been hiding his condition for a long time. And when he was finally forced to debate, didn't have a teleprompter or script, it became extremely obvious. What happened then? They basically put in a new nominee who's never been voted on. Kamala Harris has never received one primary vote. It was done through a process that was opaque.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
We still don't know how it went down. I have to disagree with Reid that Biden did it in a voluntary way. Biden went kicking and screaming. I mean, he basically said publicly over and over again, I'm not leaving the race. I'm in this race. He tweeted it. He said it. He said, only God Almighty could get me out of the race.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And then it was reported that Nancy Pelosi went to him and said, we can do this the easy way or the hard way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
She might be God Almighty. She might be God Almighty. But the point is there was nothing Democratic about this. And now we have a new Democratic Party nominee who refuses to do press conferences, refuses to do solo interviews, refuses to take questions from the press, who's hiding herself effectively. And yet this party, again, claims to be the party of democracy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I find it just almost maddening or galling again in its hypocrisy. And I just I don't see how everybody can't see through this. It's just not the way that democracy is supposed to work. And I certainly don't think that the people engaging these tactics can be cloaking themselves in all this highfalutin rhetoric of democracy. It's just absurd.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And so I feel like I'm in the place that you are, Bobby. You know, as viewers of this pod know, I did not start off supporting Trump in the primaries. I supported you in the Democratic primary and I did fundraisers for DeSantis and Vivek. And that was in large part because I think of the job that DeSantis did as governor.
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In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
But when it came to the general, the realization that I came to is that Trump is the indispensable figure in our current politics for marshalling this populist energy to resist this hypocritical elite authoritarianism that wants to engage in censorship over debate, that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
seems to want to protect and defend this surveillance state over anything it wants to do, that wants to keep all these wars going, even when they don't make sense, when we could have found a way to negotiate a diplomatic end to them. And so I'm kind of delighted that you've kind of come around to this opinion, too. I know you have your reservations about Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I'm not saying that Trump is perfect. I mean, I think he's a he's human, he's a flawed vessel, but at the end of the day, he is the choice that represents, again, these populist forces resisting authoritarianism. Sorry, this is more of a statement than a question, but I'll let you react to all of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Well, a lot of people feel that way, Jake. And I think at the end of the day, you and others are gonna have to decide. Do you want to support the candidate who has the right policies, but maybe there's style points that you don't like about him? Because I think that the things you're talking about, the mean tweets and so forth, at the end of the day, I think they're stylistic things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I don't think they go deep to policy or how he would govern. Do you want to support a campaign that is running on vibes and joy, you know, that has the superficiality that you like, but there's nothing underneath it. And when we do learn something underneath it, when we actually learn a policy, then all the people who are supporting her have to say, oh, well, she's not really going to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
She's not going to do that. So the best thing you can say about her campaign is that she's not going to be able to accomplish the things that she says she wants to accomplish. There's no basis on which to vote for a president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
We need to get merch here.
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OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Rain Man, David Sachs. And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. I'm the queen of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Rain Man, David Sack. And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Queen of Kinwa.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, I'm not going to comment on the stock per se. Tesla's products are amazing. They seem to be really executing well there. I think that Elon foreshadowed on that earnings call what's coming in the future. I'm personally really curious about the Optimus robot. That has the potential to create an entirely new market and bring about something that we've only seen in science fiction.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So to me, that's very interesting. I think in terms of the company's problems, I think they're mostly dealing with some macro forces. So first of all, the GDP growth rate has slowed to 1.6% in Q1. So this just came out. And that was a notable slowdown relative to expectations. So first of all, you're dealing with a slowing economy, it seems like.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Second, high interest rates mean that car payments are higher. If you want to finance the purchase of a car, your car payments is going to be a lot higher when interest rates are above 5%. And I think that has been a pretty big headwind for Tesla and really all the car companies over the last year or so. But I would say that I think both of those things are ultimately cyclical.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And what matters is Tesla's products. I would say the only issue they have that's a real long-term issue is just the Chinese competition. companies like BDY are ramping up production of knockoff products at low prices. And so managing the competition with China is probably the only one of these issues. That's, I think, probably a long term issue for them to deal with.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That's a really interesting point.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, I already said optimist, but that's based on a long-term view.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
In the long-term, in terms of option value, I am the most intrigued by the robot play. And Elon has pointed out that once you have robots that are capable of doing lots of different jobs, pretty much any job you point them at, that we can have more robots on Earth than humans. So it's a big future market. So you got Optimus number one, and who is number two?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I agree with Chamath in the short term that ride-sharing could really reach its logical conclusion with robo-taxis. Remember when Uber first... gained steam and people were speculating about how big the market could be. There was a lot of giddy talk about how car ownership would change and you wouldn't need to buy a car anymore because you would just like use Uber all the time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And I actually, I went full Uber or I shouldn't say full. I went mostly Uber like within a couple of years of discovering that product.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah. So I thought the potential was there, but the problem is it was just too expensive. I mean, Uber is still quite expensive, and the most expensive piece of it is the human driving the car. It's all that labor cost.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So if you're able to charge for the ride purely based on fractionalizing the CapEx, and that CapEx isn't even that high because they're making these rollover taxis pretty cheaply now, And you're able to get so much more utilization out of a car. Exactly. Right? Because, I mean, how many hours a day do you drive your own car? Like an hour, maybe? Less.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
All right, J. Cal, you are the third investor in Uber. Are you worried about your investment? As I understand it, you still haven't sold, have you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
But it is a bribe. That is a bribe. It is, in fact, a bribe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
When are you saying that self-driving will be good enough to power just one robo taxi? Let's just forget about the scale. Just like when will it be good enough to have like a steering wheel free car?
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I consider it a tip in advance of services. No, you're not tipping him for good service. You're tipping him to basically break in line.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, let me show you a video. This is one of my coworkers at Kraft took this. This wasn't me, but he was riding in the back of one of these robo taxis. I think this is San Francisco or New York. I'm not sure which one. But there is no one in- Yeah. the driver's seat.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
You didn't make a reservation, and you're taking away somebody else's spot, and you're paying him to break the rules. You know what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I don't see a safety driver. Where's the safety driver?
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I think it's underrated in terms of how significant this is going to be.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
This is a Jaguar. Look at that. It's a Jaguar. So you're telling me that Tesla's not going to have something at least as good as this? Better. Soon?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
It's not a bribe. You're not even really doing him a favor. You're doing yourself a favor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I actually disagree that there's going to be 20 or 30 of these because I actually think that self-driving is really, really hard. And we know that Tesla has been spending years getting to this point, and then Google as well. So I'm not sure why there'd be more than two or three companies that can do self-driving.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
But I mean, you need a ton of data to make it work and you need a lot of data around edge cases. And so the advantage Tesla has is they actually have real cars on the road. They have real cars on the road with real driver minutes and with drivers using the previous version of FSD and making interventions. So they're constantly getting better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I think Google seems to be putting enough resources into this to get somewhere. But I don't think a lot of companies are going to figure this out. I think it's going to be somewhere between one and three companies figure this out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That's one of my coworkers.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Because I had this argument with my- You gave him the 50 just for doing a good job, even if you had the reservation is what you're saying.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Pretty cool. By the way, someone tweeted something kind of funny. They said, you know, it took Uber years and years and like a trillion dollars to finally get to profitability, and now they're about to get disrupted by robo-taxis. This is brutal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Oh my God. A pre-tip if he gives you a reservation when you don't have one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah, do you care about non-compete SACs? I think one of the reasons why the tech industry moves so fast and innovates so well is because of the happy coincidence that California doesn't allow non-competes, and so the industry's never had them. And as a result of that, like you're saying, the talent just flows freely to wherever the opportunity is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
and you have this dynamic in tech where the vcs and the talent all swarm the biggest and best opportunities and the newest platforms in a completely decentralized way and there's no little or no friction in doing that if you were to impose non-competes on all of the talent, there's going to be enormous delays and friction in them moving around to pursue opportunities.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And so I think it's been very beneficial to the industry as a whole that we don't have that. Now, it's hard for me to speak to other industries, but I think that if you're looking to maximize the pace of innovation, you wouldn't have these employee non-competes. So on that level, I kind of agree with what Lena Kahn's done.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That being said, I do think the Republicans' point was well taken in the sense that this was very aggressive rulemaking. I mean, I think you could legitimately argue that a change this big should be made by Congress, but I tend to think this is probably a positive change.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, Just because these agreements are no longer enforceable doesn't mean that businesses don't have moats. It just means you have to look in other places. I mean, you have to find network effects. You have to find data scale effects. There's other ways of building a moat. Besides just...
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
trade secrets or, you know, patents is another category where, you know, in the tech industry, patents have never really mattered that much. And the only people who are seeking to litigate patents are basically patent trolls. Losers. So you want to find real durable moats, not these like legal arrangements that try to protect your business through... you know, these types of contracts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And by the way, one of the reasons why the industry moves so fast is because best practices get shared very quickly. And one of the ways that happens is that everybody is moving around to different companies. I mean, what's the average term of employment? One or two years.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And you don't have to worry that if you've got some knowledge in your head, that you don't have to worry that if you use it at some new company, you're going to violate some trade secret. But the one thing everyone knows not to do is take anything with them in terms of, you know...
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah, I mean, sometimes people do break the rules. I mean, the rule is you don't take any work product with you. You don't take any documents. No thumb drives, dipshit. Don't bring your old computer to the new job. Don't bring any old code. And there are people who violate those rules, and that is definitely breaking the rules. But you're allowed to take with you anything in your head.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And it is one of the ways that best practices sort of become more common.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, the overall theme is just that the national security state got everything it wanted. It got $100 billion to support forever wars. It got a TikTok ban. And this divestiture thing is a total fig leaf because it's not clear that China is going to allow TikTok to divest because it would set a horrible precedent. where the U.S.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
could just pass a law and then essentially steal the value of a Chinese company. So I don't think they're going to be able to divest. I think they're just going to get shut down. So the security state's getting its wish there. And then another bill that you didn't mention, which they just passed, is they approved the warrantless spying on Americans.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So the federal government can now spy on you and your communications without even getting a warrant. Ridiculous. Disgusting. The national security state just seems to get whatever it wants. And there was large bipartisan majorities for all of this.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And the way they do it is they conjure all these fears to try and fear us into, well, if we don't agree to warrantless spying, then you could get a terrorist attack. Well, When has a warrant requirement ever gotten in the way of actually doing what we need to do to stop terrorism? Never. But that fear was enough to get Congress to authorize that legislation.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
They're keeping us involved in this forever war in Ukraine by this fear that Putin's somehow going to conquer all of Europe, which I think is total threat inflation. And this TikTok fear that somehow what videos we like is like precious data that's being shared with the CCP. Look, I'm willing to believe it's possible, but they never proved that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
We debated this. We debated this. You showed one article from the New York Times about how, yeah, that's not proof, J. Cal. Those were two rogue employees who shared some data with
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But what was the judicial process or legislative process to prove that? Do they have hearings? Do they prove that? I understand that your hearsay and your view is good enough to ban it, but I'd actually like to see some proof.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Handle it in a trade bill because what we've authorized here is not a TikTok ban. It is a sweeping new federal power to ban foreign adversary controlled applications. That's the new category. So we have a new category of foreign controlled apps, whatever that means. And the government can now use it to shut down apps they don't like. And I guarantee you, I think here's where this goes next.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I think Telegram is next on the hit list. You have a Russian founder, okay? You have rumors for years, I'd say unproven, that somehow Telegram's been backdoored by the Russian government. You know, we've all heard those rumors. It's kind of like the CCP.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Who cares?
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
He lives in Dubai, yeah. Here's what you're going to see. You're going to see, at some point, you'll see a media campaign that will be promoting the idea that Telegram is used by Hamas, by terrorists, by groups that the U.S.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
doesn't like, and that it's backdoored by Russia, and that it's got some shady investors on its cap table, and no politician's going to want to stand up and defend Telegram, and all the industry money that flows into Washington will be promoting this idea that we have to ban it because think about the market share gains that all of Telegram's competitors will make.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And they're the ones wired into DC. So this is a foregone conclusion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I think that- That seems like a stretch. Not really. I think that the first step is you go get telegram because that's easy. You know, this guy is an agent of Putin, obviously. And anyone who says differently is themselves an agent of the Kremlin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That's how this rhetoric works. So first of all, they'll whack telegram. And by the way, we all know that companies are going to benefit enormously by slurping up that market share. And then if Biden wins a second term. They will eventually set their gun sights on X. But look, that's a battle because in X, you have a billionaire who has resources, who's willing to stand on his hind legs and fight.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And so they're not going to do that before the election. But look, if we continue to see more weaponization and more censorship, I believe that eventually what they will do is try and push Elon to divest X. And look, all they got to do, listen, J. Cal, this act empowers the attorney general to open an investigation.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So I think that in a second Biden term, they will open an investigation and to start ratcheting up the pressure on Elon to get rid of X, because that's clearly what they want.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I'm basing that statement on published reports that China has said they're opposed to the forced sale of TikTok in the U.S., And I agree with you that it might change. But think about it if you're the Chinese government. You're adamantly opposed to this. You don't like the president. And you don't really care. You don't really care about tech entrepreneurs getting rich.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I mean, the founder CEO of TikTok lives in Singapore. Right. So why would they give a shit?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
All right. I think Telegram can stick its head between its legs and kiss its ass goodbye because they're next on the hit list.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
The security state has used fears, like the one that Jake helped explain, to get a new power. And it's not a power to ban TikTok. It's a power to ban any foreign-controlled app. So goodbye, Telegram.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah, I mean, fine, whatever.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
It's over. It's over. Look, the national security state gets whatever it wants. It's pretty clear.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, how did this warrantless spying thing happen? I mean, look, I think the warrantless spying is actually worse than the TikTok ban.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I mean, how are they not required to go to a court to get a warrant?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, I think we still have FISA, but you don't have to go to the court to get a warrant. They can just do whatever they want.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Biden is playing a game of chicken with the tech industry and with, I'd say, suburban voters in general. I mean, is this what you want? At some point, you're going to have to say that this is not okay. I mean, first of all, you've got this 25% unrealized gains tax, which is a wealth tax.
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If you're somebody who's created a small business or a family farm, or you're a tech founder, if you get to qualify for for the amount, then you've got to pay 25%. And in order to raise the money for that 25%, you're going to get taxed on, let's say you try to sell 25% of the company, you're now going to get taxed 45% of that plus 13.3% California.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So really you're going to have to sell more like 40% of the company just to pay off this unrealized gains tax. And by the way, you haven't made a dime yet. You haven't put a dollar in your bank account. This is pure confiscation. That's year one. What happens the following year?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Let me tell you, I mean, so so this is in Biden's budget for next year. And this idea, this is not the first time we've seen this. It was in his original Build Back Better proposal. And the only reason that failed is because Manchin and Sinema voted against it. So Manchin and Sinema are not going to be in the Senate. next year, okay? They're not running for reelection.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So if the Democrats have the trifecta, if Biden wins reelection and holds on to the Senate and House, but without Manchin and Sinema, I think you have to price in the strong possibility that this passes. I don't think you can just shrug it off.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, yeah, I mean, that's a loaded question because you're basically positioning this tax, which is really complicated in the details and the person getting asked the question doesn't understand it compared to the most popular program that the federal government has, which is social security. So obviously it's going to pull that way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I mean, look, you can ask a question in a way on a poll to get whatever answer you want to get to. I can basically prove to you that a majority of the American public is either for Ukraine funding or against Ukraine funding, depending on how you ask the question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And look, yeah, obviously, taxing people with $100 million of paper wealth is going to be more popular than sacrificing your Social Security, obviously. But that doesn't mean that this is a good proposal economically at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
It's not even going to save Social Security. I mean, what is this tax going to get us? It's going to destroy the startup ecosystem. It's not going to balance the budget. We're still spending way too much for that. It doesn't pay down the debt. It doesn't save Social Security. It's just more and more taxes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
But Balaji actually had a brilliant blog post about this called All It Takes Is All You Got. And what he pointed out is he was talking about the federal government's runaway deficits and debt and borrowing. And somebody responded to him with this chart that shows assets versus liabilities. This guy, Brent, who I guess is a
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
FOIL on X for biology sometimes, said, oops, you only showed one side of the balance sheet. Common mistake, though, basically saying that biology didn't know what he was talking about because biology was only showing the red, which is the government liabilities, the government debt. And he showed that, well, no, you have to include all the green bars. But what are the green bars?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Those are private assets. And biology pointed out that, no, actually, you're proving my point. Because people like you just see all of the private assets of citizens of the United States as belonging to the government. And if you actually extend the red bars to the present value of all the long-term liabilities that this government has, it's more like $175 billion. So...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
People like this see the $160 trillion of private wealth as being on the balance sheet of the federal government and being used to offset the $175 trillion of liabilities. In other words... All it takes is all you got. That's the trajectory we're on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
They're going to absolutely go after your retirement accounts because that's the only way they're going to pay off these liabilities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, there's another great tweet by a guy who said, laptop mercenary. I don't know this account, but he said something funny. He said, imagine being a California high earner. Options, either vote for your own financial liquidation or vote for the orange man. Yeah, it's brutal. Checkmate, dude. Checkmate. You guys just got to put on the red MAGA hat. It's happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
You don't have to wear the red MAGA hat. When you go into that polling booth, nobody knows the button you're pushing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Jason, Biden has had four years to prove that he's a moderate. He's had four years to prove that he represents the normalcy that he promised to us when he first got elected. Yep. That's been refuted. I mean, how much more does it take for you to understand that his policy is radical? He combines the foreign policy of Dick Cheney with the economic policy of Elizabeth Warren.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
How much more does it take? Are you going to vote for your own financial liquidation? Because that's what we're talking about.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I think he's a great vote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
For Democrats.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
J. Cal, here are your choices, okay? You can vote for Trump or you can give up the ski lodge. What's it going to be?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I'll tip the bartender to keep the ice cubes cold. The bartender got $100 just for keeping the ice cubes cold.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, we kind of glossed over what the real news was, which was that Meta released Lama 3, which they had spent billions of dollars creating in a completely open source way. And the testing on Lama 3 is that it's comparable to GPT-4. And I think this is what Chamath means by scorched earth, is that we now have a free model that's as good as GPT-4. Best in class. Or at least tied for best in class.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
There are some slight differences, and we've been playing around with it. It is faster and cheaper than using ChatGPT4, but the context window is smaller. I think it has only an 8,000 token context window. So that's something that the open source community is going to need to work on is rolling out foundation models that have a bigger context window.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Cino for you, Cino for you. Let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Nonetheless, the point is that at least for now, until OpenAI comes out with GPT-5, which is supposed to happen soon, the open source community has kind of caught up with the top closed source model, which is open AI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Well, I still think that OpenAI is ahead because the scuttlebutt about ChatGPT-5 is that it's amazing and it's a big improvement over GPT-4. And supposedly it's going to come out any day, week, or month. So if GPT-5 comes out and knocks our socks off in a few weeks, then we're going to see that, oh, they're actually a cycle ahead. of the open source community.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
But as of this moment, in terms of what's been publicly released, I think it's fair to say that open source is largely caught up with open AI. And this is why, you know, bring up this tweet by Naveen Rao, who is a founder who created the company Mosaic ML, which has sold to Databricks or Unicorn Outcome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And he says, I don't think everyone has comprehended the massive disruption and distortion that's going to happen in the Gen AI market due to Lama 3. Boats will be destroyed and investments will go to zero. Just like everything in Gen AI, this will all happen fast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So, you know, it's a similar reaction to what Chamath is saying, which is we have an open source model now that erases billions of dollars of private investment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
Sean. Don.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
All right, so let's put this on ice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
What is... What is... Is that my... You're in my house.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
That was good. I mean, it was three quarters of a bottle. It's just sitting there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
How do you think I got that love seat in my kitchen? I got that love seat off the kitchen. That came from Sax's designer. Yeah. Yeah. I just had two guys. My brother, Josh came. We took it out the back. It was fun. We took it out the back. If I'm a guest, I'm leaving with something. Why don't you want to moderate today?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
Take off my sweater. That's okay. Amore. Don't touch my wife. Oh, my God. Oh, my Lord. Oh, my God. I'm so tilted. I'm so tilted. Amore. Don't you worry, Amore.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
Burgers and Dots?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
Take my sweater off. It's great. This is so tilted. Get out of my house. Take my sweater off. But it will be done at 1 o'clock, so I'll see you then. Please let me know. Should we have lunch in the garden? Yes, please. Lunch in the garden. Wear something simple. Don't get old.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
It's a dead heat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
How much was it to upgrade?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
What do you want for lunch? I said, what do I want for lunch? Your company. That's what I told her.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
That's what I said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
I'll be there in a couple of hours, Sax.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
But you know what? I agree. This sweater is not so great. I think I'm going to switch to this one. Don't touch that sweater, Jason. This one's incredible. Should I switch? Don't put it on, please. I won't put it on, but you know what? This port, I'm not so sure. Sean? Sean, yes. Sean, that's great. But any other options?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Here's the question is, These are form documents at the end of the day. And form documents don't write themselves. Lawyers write them. And when you get a novel change in one of these documents, somebody thought that through and thought it'd be a good idea and put it in there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
And like Jamal said, there is a way to potentially defend that. It's not like these provisions don't exist. It's just a novel application to try and claw back someone's already vested equity from a company on behalf of these things. Well, that is not...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
No, that's completely non-standard. I'm just saying that these provisions exist in other contexts, and their application as a clawback of vested employee equity is something that I don't think any of us have heard before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Yeah, exactly. So my point is just this didn't happen as an accident. Somebody made a strategic business decision to do this because they thought it would be in the company's interest.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Good, good. Yeah, good week. What's going on?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Once you leave a company and you vested equity, you don't lose it. I mean, as long as you, you have some period in which to exercise your option if it's an option rather than stock. But other than that, I've never heard of a situation where employees can lose their vested equity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I mean, I guess that's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Look, I think the question here is, is it credible that they keep having these accidents and coincidences?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Judge Sacks says there's one too many coincidences, you know? Look, I think like Chamath said, you could have just owned this and said that, defended it in the way he said, and said, but you know what? It was too aggressive and we pulled it back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
And by the way, I mean, because it is such an industry-leading company, I think we could end up with some very bad fair use precedents or laws because Scarlett Johansson is so sympathetic as a plaintiff compared to OpenAI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I've never done that before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
And unless they show us some discovery that proves that they really did hire the voice actor and all the rest of it, I mean, this could lead to some very bad precedents for the industry around fair use.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
There's one more drama going on. It's not just drama. I mean, there's now a lawsuit. I think it's a very interesting case.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I think it's a legitimately interesting case. If it goes the distance, it's going to create some really interesting precedents.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
No, it didn't quite land.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Let's call this what it is, a mass resignation. And we don't really know why. I mean, apparently they were promised something like 20% of the computing resources of OpenAI, and they didn't get that. I definitely read that somewhere. And so that is part of it, I think, but we don't really know the whole story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
And when you look at this issue of the mass resignation, and then you look at the issue of the clawback, of vested employee equity, you're like, well, wait a second, maybe they felt like they needed that claw back in order to deter all these people who are leaving from spilling the beans about whatever was upsetting them. Something clearly upset them, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Yeah, and then like you said, the board did fire him, and the only explanation they provided was that he wasn't being candid, which at the time we thought was an incredibly damning statement. And we thought we'd get some explanation of it. We never got any explanation whatsoever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
You know, I thought that the board was being incompetent because I thought that either they fired him overly hastily or they had reason to fire him, but then they communicated poorly. And, you know, you add all these things up and it definitely seems like a lot of smoke.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Well, the company that everyone compares NVIDIA to or asks the question about whether a historical comparison should be made is Cisco. So there's an article in Motley Fool saying, is NVIDIA doomed to be the next Cisco? There was one in Morningstar called NVIDIA 2023 versus Cisco 1999, will history repeat itself?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
The reason they're asking these questions is that if you go back to the dot-com boom in 1999, you can pull up the stock performance chart, you can see that Cisco had this incredible run And if you overlay the stock price of NVIDIA, it seems to be following that same trajectory. And what happened with Cisco is that when the dot-com crash came in 2000, Cisco stock lost a huge part of its value.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Obviously, Cisco is still around today and it's a valuable company, but it just hasn't ever regained the type of market cap it had. The reason this happened is because Cisco got commoditized. So to Chamath's point, the success and market cap of that company attracted a whole bunch of new entrants, and they copied Cisco's products until they were total commodities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So the question is, will that happen to Nvidia? And I think the difference here is that at the end of the day, networking equipment, which Cisco produced, was pretty easy
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Right. Whereas if you look at NVIDIA, these GPU cores are really complicated to make. And Jensen makes this point that the H100, for example, has thousands of components and it weighs like 70 pounds or something like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Yeah, it's like a mainframe. It's not just like a little chip. So it's a much more complicated product to copy. And then on top of that, they're already in the R&D cycle for the next chip, right? Whatever it's going to be, the H200 or whatever it is. And so... As people try to catch up with H100, they're going to be on to H200.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So I think you can make the case that NVIDIA has a much better moat than Cisco. And just by the way, on this Cisco comparison, just to finish the thought, people were making this comparison six months ago. And what's happened since then? NVIDIA's had two blowout quarters. And the competitors don't seem to be that much closer, maybe a little bit closer. But so...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
You know, look, I think it's an open question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I think we should do State of the Economy and then do Science Corner.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I think we should end on our balls. Okay, great. Let's end with our balls.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
The ball play should come a little bit later in the program.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Yeah. Do you guys think they sound the same?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Well, look, I tend to agree with Jamal on this. I think this is a classic story of who do you believe? Do you believe the experts or do you believe in the intuitions of the American people? And the experts have some statistics on their side. But, you know, the old saying goes, there's lies, damn lies and statistics. And then the American people have their actual lived experience on their side.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Where'd you get that name from?
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
They know what they're feeling. And I tend to trust in that. And obviously, we're in an election year, and the press knows that. So they're trying to do this big cleanup effort for Biden. But why is it that people are feeling this way? Number one is inflation. And if you look at this chart, you can see that
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If you look at household net worth since the start of the Biden presidency and compare it to the change in household net worth at a similar point in Trump's presidency, in nominal terms, it appears to be the same. But then if you adjust for inflation, in other words, you look at the real household net worth, you can see that household net worth during the Biden term has been flat.
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I think it sounds pretty darn similar. Dead on. I mean, I don't know if it's dead on. Honestly, it sounds like a digitally altered version of her voice. That's what it sounds like to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Actually, it's down.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Because of inflation.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Where did the inflation come from? Yeah. Well, Larry Summers warned in the first quarter of the Biden administration that if you pass an unnecessary $2 trillion of COVID stimulus, you would produce inflation. The inflation rate when Biden came into office was 1.7%. We had a rip-roaring economy, but he started stimulating. And we talked about Bidenomics is this new policy that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
of pumping trillions of dollars of stimulus into a healthy economy, which we've never done before. What happened? Inflation went all the way to 9%. So people's wages have not kept up with the rate of inflation. This is why they feel worse off. When you actually look at purchasing power, people are worse off in terms of their actual ability to buy things. Their purchasing power has gone down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Wages may have gone up a little bit, but they have not gone up as much as inflation. So people feel worse off. Now, Larry also had that, I think, really informative study showing that inflation would have peaked at 18% if you include cost of borrowing. So again, to Chamath's point, if you're trying to get a mortgage and you're paying 7.5%, 8%, you'll feel way worse off.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
If you need to buy a car and make a car payment, you feel much worse off. If you've got credit card debt, which has now hit an all-time record of something like $1.1 trillion, your credit card rates have never been higher. So the average American feels worse off because cost of borrowing has a huge impact on their household finances.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
And that's why if you read like one of the last paragraphs in that story that you referred to, they use the key words, the consumer feels squeezed, the average household feels squeezed. They may not have lost their job yet, but they've lost purchasing power and they've lost net worth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
And the press can gaslight us all day long about how wonderful things are under Biden, but the average American, I think, understands differently based on their own experience.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
It was her voice, but then they changed it. So either that or they hired a voice actor who sounds like her. And that's what the company has said is that they hired a voice actor. But they won't tell us who the voice actor is. They said because of privacy concerns, which doesn't quite make sense to me because... when you hire an actor, they want the credit, you know? Yeah. So get more work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
The company could just clear this whole thing up by saying exactly who the voice actor is. And why wouldn't the voice actor want that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Look, fast food's a pretty competitive business. I mean, I think the reason why McDonald's is raising prices is because everyone else is raising prices. I mean, otherwise, they'd be losing share. And just go to the grocery store and look at the price of steak or chicken or whatever, or eggs. It's gone up tremendously over the last few years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
It's not relevant. I mean, yeah, look, obviously we know that the price of eggs doesn't affect me. Okay, great. I'm in a fortunate position. That's not what the topic is. The topic is what is the impact on the American people and why do 70% of the people in that poll feel that we're in a recession even though the experts tell us we're not? And I've explained it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Let me ask you a question, Tomas. Do you have a sommelier for your fruit? I mean, you seem like a real connoisseur here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
This is why Sam's call to Scarlett's agents or her two days before they launched is such a damning piece of evidence because it sounds like he's trying to shut the barn door on something they've already done, right? They've got this demo ready. They're going to launch it in two days. They're realizing maybe they don't have the rights to use her voice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Yeah, but you had that same dynamic when consumer sentiment was much higher in a previous administration and people were feeling much better about the economy. So that's a constant.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, when the economy was down 33% year over year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Both parties thought that we were headed for a depression. And so we had a bipartisan stimulus bill during an actual crisis. Once the crisis was over, there was no need to keep spending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You're missing the fact that Trump had 2020 when we had the COVID depression, or what could have been, when the economy was down 30% year over year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
By the way, did you guys see? Hold on a second. Let me just make this one point. Just because both parties have been irresponsible in spending doesn't mean that we can't make further judgments about who's been worse. Sure. What's happened in the Biden administration is just quantitatively worse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So you have to contact her to get those rights. But anyone who knows anything about Hollywood knows you're not going to be able to make a deal with a major star to use her name and likeness in two days. It's impossible. So this seems like a really crazy thing to do. I mean, I think the mere fact that he contacted them and then tweeted out her, which shows that Scarlett was on the brain,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
There was no crisis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Look at Trump's spending before COVID. Look at Trump's spending before COVID. It was like a 5% bump on Obama's spending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Those are really damning pieces of evidence, I think, in this lawsuit. And I think it's going to feed into our case.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Wait, are people donating their balls to science? Is that how this is happening?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I just want to state on the record, I don't want my balls used that way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Why not just start laughing before you deliver the joke next time? I'm trying, I'm trying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I think, I think baby Catherine is biodegradable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
There's like a marketing... I want my bananas to come with packaging on them. I don't want anyone else's fingerprints. I don't want anyone's fingerprints on my bananas.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Yeah, but I could touch it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I want everything to come in hermetically sealed plastic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I thought that was TikTok.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
There's so many things that we have to panic about. To your point, it's hard to attribute to one thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Exactly. So the moral of the story is don't try to do the right thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I don't know. But anyway, I just want to- I think this stuff is unavoidable. I really do. That's why I'm not too worried about it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I thought this was a science corner I could finally use.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
There you go. Yeah. It's just brass balls.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Gregory Glenn Ross.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
You have to have these. That's Alec Baldwin, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
That was great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So shout out to Warren Harris and Nick Calacanis. You finally landed the plane.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Well, I don't know. I mean, hold on. let's say you're casting a movie and you know, you can't get Scarlett Johansson for it. And so you tell the casting director, get me a Scarlett Johansson type. I think you can do that. Okay. Obviously you can't, you can't use her name. You can't use her likeness, but you could hire a different actor who might look or sound like Scarlett Johansson.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
If the company actually did that and they did it nine months ago, this is what the statement they put out. I think they've got a decent defense. Yeah. But because they may, I don't know if we believe that. I mean, again, why don't you just put out the name of the actual actor, that voice actor that you used?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So they should just license Gwyneth's voice. Obvious.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Well, which one did you call two days before the demo?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Yeah, if they never reached out to Scarlett, they could claim it's just a coincidence. But they called her twice. They called her some months before and then two days before, which indicates panic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
The sentence is that Scarlett Johansson is going to end up owning more of this company than Sam Altman. That's what's going to happen. Look, they call her two days before. Why do you do that? Guilty. Because you know you have a problem and you're trying to put the horse back in the barn. Now what they should have done is as soon as she says no, you just change the voice completely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
They claim it's an accident. Once they get caught with their hand in the cookie jar, which, like you said, Chamath, is just a heavy-handed agreement. It's in the company's interest to do this. Yeah. They just say it was an accident, just like the Scarlett thing is an accident or a coincidence. It's just getting hard to believe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, I mean, I support the idea of colorblind meritocracy. I mean, I agree with Chamath and Freeberg that the traits that you're born with are not skills or qualifications. They're just the accidents of your birth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And what we should be trying to create is a society where those things don't matter and everyone has the same ability and opportunities for advancement based on how hard they work and their skills and this concept of merit. And I think that Supreme Court decision gets us closer to that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Remember that the reason why that Supreme Court decision happened, or what the plaintiffs were arguing, is that the previous regime on college campuses was unfairly discriminating against Asian Americans. Because whenever you try to engineer the classes to a certain proportion of the population, somebody has to win and somebody has to lose. And the students who were losing were Asian Americans.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And in many cases, these Asian Americans were first generation immigrants or they were coming from disadvantaged backgrounds. And yet their population was engineered to a smaller number than merit would otherwise suggest. And now you're seeing it. In this new class at MIT, the percentage of Asian Americans has increased somewhat. So I think it's good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I mean, we're reducing a form of discrimination. That discrimination may have originally started for good reasons to try and create a remedy against a different kind of historical discrimination. Nonetheless, it discriminated against talented Asian students. And I think now that that's been fixed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
To some degree, I do. I mean, look, if you have a student who gets, let's call it a 1450 on the SAT, but they've got tutors and classes. Yep. And they're growing up in an environment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Right. They're getting the best teachers, the best schools, the best environment. And then you take a kid who grew up in, I don't know, like a dangerous park. of the inner city where there's shootings happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Right. They don't have access to the best schools or best funded schools, best teachers. And let's say that person gets a 1400 on their SAT, which one is better? I mean, certainly if they got a 1450 and you're comparing two equal scores, it's really clear that the disadvantaged student probably has more raw talent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
To be honest, I think schools like that are better. I mean, I think probably Virginia Tech is better than Harvard. And the reason is because they're less infected with the whole woke DEI ideology that now pervades these like top schools. So the students are more likely to learn something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I agree with that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And they're not new brands. They're old brands. And we've seen that these old brands depreciate over time. And people read way too much into them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I don't necessarily think that benefits the undergrads. I mean, first of all, these campuses... Well, tell us about your experience at Stanford.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Stanford technically is not in the Ivy League. The Ivy League is like an East Coast club, whereas Stanford was kind of the West Coast disruptor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
They've performed. I mean, I think one of the problems with the whole DEI policy, whether you want to do it based on race or socioeconomics or whatever it is that you're doing, is it keeps happening at every layer of the stack. And at some point, you just need to say, look, we've made up for whatever came before. And now it just has to be about that person's performance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
We need to stop putting our thumb in the scale and just hire the best person. My view is you could probably do that after undergrad. Like there's no need to keep artificially adjusting the weights of how you hire people after undergrad, but yet you have all these programs that keep trying to make the decision based on something other than merit. And I think that's the part that needs to stop.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, yeah. I mean, I predicted this would happen, and I didn't know exactly how we would get the correction, but now it's come out. By the way, it's not just this 818,000 jobs. If you look at the last 12 months and add up all the restatements, it's been something like 1.2 million. I can share the chart on that. but this is quite remarkable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, the election's going to be a nail-biter, and it's going to really come down to a few thousand votes or a few tens of thousands of votes in swing states. I think we've known that now for a while, I would say since Biden abdicated and they did the hot swap.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I think the most interesting poll numbers over the past week is, if you look at polymarket, that it has swung back to Trump being in the lead over the past week as opposed to Harris. Last week, I think Harris... was favored to win by quite a bit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And you have to ask the question, well, how does this happen during her own Democratic convention, which is supposed to be nothing but a four-day infomercial for the Democrat candidate? It's a coronation. So she should be getting nothing but a bump, and instead it seems to be the opposite.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And I think the reason is, is because the more substance her campaign puts out, the more policies it reveals, the worse she does. First, they had her give that economic speech last Friday on price gouging and price controls. And we spent a lot of time last week talking about why price controls would be a disastrous economic policy. Subsequent to that, there were stories that came out about
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
her campaign supporting these huge tax hikes that were in the original Biden-Harris budget, including a 25% unrealized gains tax, which we can talk more about. But I think just to boil it down, I think the more the public learns, the more we learn about what she would do as president, the worse she does.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And they've now got to run out the clock for another, I don't know what, 70, 80 days in terms of running a campaign that's substance-free, that's just completely on vibes, that's about joy without answering any questions, without doing any press interviews.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And I think we predicted some time ago that that just was not going to be sustainable, that at some point they're going to have to tell us what they think. And as they do that, the more they do that, I think the more her polls will correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
About a year ago, I tweeted really fairly casually that there was a hot jobs report. This was around June of 2023, that I didn't know where they're finding all these jobs. I mean, all I see is layoffs. That was my reaction based on not just what I was seeing in tech, and all of us, especially last year, were seeing nothing but layoffs in tech. It was also feedback from
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
real estate investors that I knew. I mean, all new real estate projects had basically stopped because the cost of borrowing was so high and there was a credit crunch. So new construction projects had stopped. Refis were very hard to get. It's just that everywhere I was looking in the economy and the feedback I was getting from people, things looked... pretty dismal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, I would consider prediction markets to be an additional tool that we should consider side by side with polls. And they both have their pluses and minuses. The advantage of polls is that you're actually talking to real people as opposed to bettors. However... They're very dependent on sampling and getting the sampling correct. I mean, most of these polls talk to maybe 1,000 respondents.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
These are people who are willing to pick up the phone from an unknown number. That right there is probably a huge source of bias because I don't do that. And then based on that sample, they're going to predict how millions and millions of people are going to vote. Well, everything depends on the composition of that sample. Which thousand voters do you talk to?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Do you weight them based on likelihood of voting or demographic characteristics and so on? So the polls can be notoriously inaccurate. We've seen that many times. And that's why there's a margin of error. Sometimes the margin of error is even wrong. So in any event, it's a tool, but it's a tool that almost by definition is going to be wrong because of sampling problems.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
You look at prediction markets, and it's a totally different type of voting mechanism where bettors are willing to put their money where their mouth is, and they've got real skin in the game, and they're able to make a prediction based on their willingness to lose money. Now, there can be problems with that too. Number one, the betting market can be very thin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Sometimes there's just not a lot of money that's trading hands. So I think with a lot of those VP picks, you can move the VP market by putting just a very small amount of money because the market wasn't very liquid. So you have to kind of look at how deep and liquid the prediction market is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And then I'd say second, the issue with prediction markets is they, and this could be an advantage, is they move a lot based on small things because people are just constantly updating their forecast. I would argue that maybe that's an advantage is that you could see the trend more easily in a prediction market.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Yeah, I would mostly use the betting markets as a measure of how sentiment is shifting. So, for example, on election night, the betting market is going to convert to 100% in favor of one candidate or another, whereas the actual votes are not going to convert to 100%. You could have an election in, say, Pennsylvania, where one candidate gets 50.1% of the vote, the other candidate gets 49.9%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
The betting market's going to converge to 100-0 because it's predicting who's going to win. It's a binary yes or no as opposed to where the actual vote tolls come out. The polling is trying to approximate where the vote tolls are going to come out, right, with a huge margin of error.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
And yet the media was continuously putting out stories about hot jobs reports. And we've been getting this now for roughly a year. And then what happens is that there's a revision. And the revisions have always gone in one direction. They're always revision down. I mean, if the revisions were completely sort of neutral and arbitrary, you'd expect it to be like a coin flip.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
So the polls are never going to give you as crisp and decisive an answer as the prediction markets, but the prediction markets can also be wrong, as we've seen. They're only as good as the people making the bets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I think what history shows, the VP pick doesn't matter that much. People vote for what's happening at the top of the ticket. And I would argue the reason why J.D. has the polling he does is because there's a couple of reasons. Number one is just media bias. And there was an interesting report showing that the
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
You might have 10 revisions and five would be up and five would be down, but they've all been down. So what I saw was a pattern of revisions down. And now we've seen the biggest one. So it's not altogether surprising to me. And in hindsight, you know, when I tweeted that a year ago, I got this like hysterical reaction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
media's coverage of the Harris campaign was 84% positive, whereas the coverage of the Trump campaign was 89% negative. That actually seems to understate the bias that I see out there. But look, this is the number one reason why J.D. has a negative rating is because the media is defining him. I would say furthermore, J.D. is out there talking about ideas, and I give him credit for that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
But because he is an idea man, and he's also a writer, and he's said interesting things in the past, and sometimes occasionally a sarcastic thing or two in the past, the media has been able to take those things out of context and harp on them relentlessly. On the other hand, you take someone like Tim Waltz, and he's out there. He's not really talking about ideas.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I mean, every time he goes up there and speaks, it's like a pep talk. I mean, if I wanted to hire a guy to give the halftime speech to my team, he'd be the guy. You know, if I wanted him out there puffing up a team, talking about how we got to all give 110%, he's the guy for that. But he's not really talking about ideas. He's not going on the Sunday shows. You look at JD.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I mean, I've watched a couple of his campaign stops. I mean, the guy is really sharp. And when he goes on the Sunday show, they are pitching nothing but fastballs at him. And he's hitting it out of the park every time. And Harris and Waltz are just not doing that. They're not even appearing on those shows.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I don't think they could survive 20 minutes of harsh questioning the way that the media pitches at J.D. every time he goes on a campaign stop and takes questions or he goes on a Sunday show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
I mean, like it was one of these tweets that all of a sudden everyone's like quote tweeting and telling me to stay in my lane. I'm a VC and I don't know the numbers and. It was like I hit some sort of nerve. And, you know, whenever that happens, you're usually over the target in some way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Yeah. So the question is like, why were they so triggered? And I think the reason is that on some level, people were intuiting that the numbers didn't really make sense. It didn't really match up with what we're seeing in the economy. And now a year later, we have the proof of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Well, I think just because someone has served in government doesn't mean that they truly even understand what the problems are or that they're even the master of government. I mean, you saw this over the past week. We talked about the 818,000 jobs that didn't exist. They asked Gina Raimondo, the Secretary of Commerce, about this, and she just said that's a Trump lie.
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And they said, no, actually, it's the Bureau of Labor Statistics report that is under U.S. Secretary of Commerce. She said, I'm not familiar with that. So you have people running the government who don't even know what their own departments are doing. Now, I think it's just a function of the fact that government is so big and out of control that no one even understands what it does.
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I think it's more important to have someone who at least has some experience in the private sector who truly understands how jobs are created, how wealth is created, what causes inflation. Okay, we've talked about this before. What causes inflation is the printing of too much money. It's government spending too much. Yeah, shocking. It is not corporate greed because corporate greed is a constant.
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It's not price gouging.
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Yeah, actually, I think I think that's right. I mean, I think that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are now the thought leaders and really the beating heart of the Democrat Party.
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I think what's happened is the Republican Party has moved to right-wing populism and the Democrats in response to that have concluded that they need to basically move to left-wing populism in order to compete with that. So both parties are becoming fairly populist. Now, what does left-wing populism mean? It basically means soak the rich, right? It's a strong element of class warfare to it.
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We're going to make the rich pay for everything and the rich are the problem. It's this fundamental unfairness of the economy that's causing all these problems. And I think you've heard that over and over again at the DNC. I mean, just the clips that I've seen, this has been a recurring theme is the hatred towards billionaires and rich people.
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It's certainly a confiscation. I mean, basically, this tax is directed at centimillionaires and billionaires to basically take 25% of what they have. I mean, that's basically what this is about. There's a good reason why realization is one of the core concepts of our tax code. Realization gives you two really important things. Number one, you have a sale price, right?
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Realization means that you sell the asset, so we know exactly how much you made. Number two, you have the liquidity to pay the tax bill because you've just sold the asset. The problem with an unrealized gains tax is both those issues. Number one... We don't know what the asset's really worth.
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It's easier to put a value on a publicly traded asset, but a private asset, it's very hard to know exactly how much it's worth. The valuation's bouncing around all the time. What this bill would do is create, I guess, a whole new process and bureaucracy to try and put a value on that. But it's going to be really complicated to comply with.
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All of us are going to need to hire a whole new legion of lawyers and accountants. So, I mean, you're talking about a whole new... essentially tax bureaucracy that's going to spring up around this concept. On the liquidity part, you're being taxed a huge amount without having the cash to pay the tax bill.
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And yes, they've tried to mitigate that by creating this installment plan, but you're still going to need to go out and sell large chunks of your company every time you get an up round in order to pay the tax bill. And that means that you're losing ownership of your company. All these assets are going to be dumped on the market. And you're basically starving the market of capital, actually, right?
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Because all these people who are owners of their company are going to have to go out and sell a big chunk of them.
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Well, you know who said something similar? Back when Mitt Romney ran for president, he was caught on tape saying something to the effect that 47% of Americans were net government recipients. And if that number ever got to 51%, then basically the free market system would be finished because it'd be more takers than makers. Tipping point. More takers than makers.
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And he was forced to apologize for that. But there is a fundamental logic to it.
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Yeah, I think that's fair. I think that's totally fair. I'm not disparaging the efforts of legitimate government workers because you do need a government.
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Right. But the point is that when you become a government employee, you have a vested interest in government. You should have a vested interest in the private sector as well because that's what generates the tax revenue to fund the government. But as a practical matter, government workers vote massively in a block for the Democrat Party.
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And in many ways, the Democrat Party is the party of government workers. You look in California, for example, the various – government workers unions are the most powerful players in California politics.
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Oh yeah. Vastly, vastly more Democrat. I mean, look, the Democrats are the party of government. Absolutely. I'm surprised by that because I would think that within the ranks of the military... If you look at the enlisted military, there's a lot of Republicans in there. A lot of military families, especially Republican. But you look at just government workers, vastly more Democrat.
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I think there's other things happening as well. I mean, look... American capitalism requires a robust middle class. And in many ways, I think globalization has hollowed out the middle class. There used to be a large middle class in this country of blue collar workers who worked with their hands. They were not knowledge workers.
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And they worked in factories and they did kind of blue collar work and they could still make a middle class living. And I think that over the last decade, 20 to 30 years as a result of globalization, millions and millions of those jobs went away and millions of factories shut down.
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So the middle class of America that's not, again, that's not knowledge workers, were really pressured by basically throwing open American markets to foreign goods. Now, you could argue that that lowered prices and that created consumer surplus and the benefits of trade.
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But I'm just pointing out that there was a real price in terms of having this free trade that led to huge trade deficits, which is this vast American middle class of people who worked with their hands got put out of work. And I think that removes a huge incentive for people to be invested and to have a vested interest in the free market system.
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Well, those are two very different bills. I mean, the Inflation Reduction Act, just the name itself should tell you that it doesn't do little. I was joking.
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Yeah, look, who benefited from that? Our friends who are energy investors, who you know who I'm talking about in our chat room. Easy, easy.
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Take it easy over there. I'm not going to say his name.
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But his nickname is Deep State, but he's an energy investor. He said that this bill was the biggest bonanza that they've ever seen He said these guys were running around like, you know, it was like the Beverly Hillbillies where they struck a gusher and they're running around with pans trying to collect the oil. That's what he basically said this was.
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But it was a bunch of energy investors at Stanford. Like a diamond mine exploding. And the manna was coming down from heaven and they're just going to collect as much of it. That was a huge boondoggle and payoff for these green energy investors. That's who it went to. It did not benefit the middle class at all.
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The CHIP Act is more complicated because it does create incentives for manufacturing in America. And moreover, there is a national security element to it because we need these advanced chips. We can't be totally dependent on chip makers who are in foreign places within 100 miles of the Chinese mainland, right? So that one's a little more complicated. Meanwhile, Intel is imploding.
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Well, just to finish the thought, I mean, the issue with the CHIPS Act is that there's a lot of good reasons to believe that even if we incentivize this, we're still hopelessly behind. And the CHIPFAPs that we're building are just, they're still years behind what they have in Taiwan, for example. So it's not clear it's going to work is my point, but I think the motivations make a lot more sense.
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Uber rally to what's the price now? 80 bucks or something.
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We need someone to generate a meme. JCal at $40 a share. JCal at $80 a share. Republican.
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By the way, can I just make one final point on the whole unrealized gains tax? Absolutely. is that would raise about 400 billion a year for all these tax hikes. That's only 20% of the deficit we're running right now. We don't get anywhere close to closing the deficit with all these tax hikes. What that means is you have to cut spending.
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Moreover, she's got a bunch of new programs to increase that deficit. And we know that that $400 billion number is an optimistic scenario because like Chamath was saying, the rich people are going to flee. They're going to try and move their wealth into structures or places where it's hard to tax.
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Yeah, it's not going to work. You're right, J. Cal. In France, in Norway, this was tried. Every time wealth taxes get tried, what happens is the wealth flees, and you never raise as much as you think you're going to. And then what happens is in order to raise that money, they have to apply it to more people.
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Elizabeth Warren already wants to apply it to Americans with a net worth of $50 million, not $100 million. So this whole idea that, well, this won't affect me because I'm not one of those rich people – The IRS was created and when they created the income tax, it was originally only supposed to apply to less than the top 1%. Okay, I got to go.
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Take care, boys.
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You think that seems wise? Well, I think the Fed isn't sure that inflation is a solved problem. I mean, I think that Powell is a little bit reticent to start the rate cutting cycle because he doesn't know for sure if inflation could tick back up. This first cut is in a way the most important one because it signals a regime change that we're beginning the rate cut cycle.
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And what he doesn't want to do is cut any amount and then be proven wrong. And we get a bad inflation report. And then all of a sudden he has to raise it again. So he doesn't want to be caught in that position. But I do think that the economy is obviously showing significant weakness. Inflation is not completely solved, but it's down to 2.9%, at least it has a two handle on it now.
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And so, yeah, I think the market is pricing in these rate cuts for a reason.
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I mean, now that we know that the jobs picture was inflated by 1.2 million jobs over the last, call it roughly a year or 14 months, I think we know that this is not like a perfectly soft landing. I mean, I think that... The economy is a little bit shaky and is being propped up by massive amounts of government spending like we talked about on a previous episode.
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We're running unsustainably high levels of deficit and debt. We're running, what, $2 trillion a year deficits right now. And what are we getting for that? We're not getting a super robust economy. We're getting an economy that's narrowly staying out of recession. So it's a little bit of a scary picture, I think. that the economy is so shaky and we're spending so much money to prop it up.
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We'll just have to see what happens.
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This study is like the vasectomy truck at the DNC. I mean, it's meant to emasculate men. That's the only interpretation of it. It's total nonsense.
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If you were to kind of build the financial system from scratch today, we've got SWIFT, we've got banks that store assets, we have credit cards and these credit card networks, then we've got transaction service providers that sit on top of this. What's the right solution if we were to build a financial system for the world from scratch today?
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And can you guys see a world where we bridge away from the credit card networks, where we move out of some of these legacy systems? Or are they so deeply ingrained in everything that it's going to continue to be this thing where we've got to build these complicated solutions into and around the legacy of financial infrastructure?
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Well, there's always room for optimization there. We deal with this too. Too many meetings, too many people. I think what was most striking for me about the Jamie Dimon rant and the resonance it seems to be having, particularly in Silicon Valley and particularly with folks that are in leadership positions or on boards, is that this is another example of what I think is kind of a different tenor
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for leaders in business right now relative to where we were a few years ago. Leaders are starting to step up and speak their mind and speak more directly and lead from the front rather than lead from the back. I think the last couple of years, and I would say that the whole kind of transition away from wokeism and coddled employee workforces, which is something that a lot of folks talk about.
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I'm not trying to just characterize it. I'm just saying that's the characterization that's been placed on it. is that the employees made the decisions. And then the leaders kind of said, okay, I'm subjugated to the employees' whims and needs. And look at what's gone on with Zuck. He said, you're with me, you're against me. Here's a buyout option.
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Elon, obviously, was an exemplar of this at Twitter. We've now seen this become... Yeah, Coinbase, Brian and his letter. And we've now seen this become, I think, a bit more of a standard in the kind of emergence in the post COVID era that leaders can lead from the front, speak directly and say, this is the way things are going to be. My job is not to coddle my employees.
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My job is to lead my employees so that our organization, our team wins and we achieve our mission. That's the objective. It's not to create a family workplace for everyone to be happy all the time. It's to help the organization succeed. And so I think I have heard from people individually. I've seen this tenor shift underway right now.
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Let your winners ride.
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And I think that Jamie Dimon is another kind of exemplar of this that seems to have some resonance.
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Rain Man, David Sackets.
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Oh my God.
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He literally hates you, Jason.
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he's gonna do everything he can to your ranch he loves jay he loves it he everybody needs a foil uh it's all sorts of problems for the rest of us when you go out and talk about people for no reason it's great what are you talking about i never talked about stripe guys you don't have any beef with your employees mids for no reason for no reason you're just like oh what about your that was a hypothetical yeah okay i did say that you you guys pocketed 500 large
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Okay, so here's what I think. If you take defense down to first principles, there was an excellent tweet that we were all texting about yesterday. It may be observation. that Trump's negotiations with Russia and China, where there's all of this hemming and hawing about those negotiations being complying with the wants and needs of dictators,
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may actually be a shift in strategy on the global relationship the United States has with other global powers.
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In particular, a shift from the objective being about US primacy and the US being kind of the sole great power on earth to recognizing that that's no longer the case and that in a multipolar world, we no longer need to invest in wars, need to invest in conflicts, need to invest in defense, with supposed allies to try and build up our strength across the globe.
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And I'm not saying that this is necessarily the right strategy, but it was an observation that maybe the strategic imperative is now to have kind of a multipolar stance in the world rather than a stance of primacy. And in that framing, you then ask the question, okay, make that the case. Now,
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If we do agree that we are all going to settle into a new world where China, Russia, the United States are not necessarily equal powers, but shared powers across the globe. In that context, Do we need to have as much of an investment in global defense? Do we need to continue to pour dollars into building up arsenals and military bases and troops and stations and positions all around the world?
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Perhaps not. Perhaps the world gets divided peacefully and we open up global trade relationships and everyone benefits economically. from the advances in technology and improvements in productivity and the world order is peaceful, but multipolar. Maybe that's the new era that we're entering. And in that context, you don't need as much of a defense.
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And separately, to Chamath's point, there's different technology that's now in play. We've seen it in the Ukraine-Russia context. that a $10,000 drone can destroy a $10 million piece of equipment. And China now has drone factories that can output millions of drones each month.
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So if China develops this new type of arsenal with millions of autonomous flying systems that can go and attack troops and attack expensive pieces of equipment, do we really need aircraft carriers? Do we really need tanks? And I think that's the whole Hegseth-led, Trump-led conversation that's underway in defense right now. Number one, multipolar.
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Number two, therefore, we don't need as much defense spending. Number three, maybe the defense spending that we do do should account for the new technology in play in the battlefield. And that really changes the character of how the Defense Department is structured and how funding is structured.
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So that's really, I think, the way to look at it versus, hey, let's just cut defense spending for cutting sake. And that might be what's going on right now.
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Jason, do you want to tell everyone in the audience what Stripe is? I mean, do we have to?
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I don't like them. I don't think that they're good. I don't think they're productive. I think that a bunch of people are going to put money in and lose money, and a few people are going to make a lot of money. But at the end of the day, it's no different than the people that sell trading cards or the people that create and sell collectibles and get paid for them.
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This is just effectively a digital collectibles business. Unfortunately, I think it's amplified by like a thousand X because collectibles businesses have friction and they're manual and you got to ship them. This creates a bit more of a digital frenzy where you see the social feedback loop happen really quickly in real time.
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That drives these things to a high value, which means people have the ability to lose a lot more than they otherwise would. But look, I mean, these are not helping the financial system get rebuilt, as we talked about earlier. They're not creating productive value. They're entertainment mechanisms, just like any other kind of gambling system might be.
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And, you know, people can choose to do that if they want. But personally, I'm not into it. I just think it's stupid. But whatever.
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You guys wouldn't know why anyone watches this show, would you? I don't know. Just jump into this right now. Everybody says the same thing. You have no context for this? It's funny.
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And is it public how much volume you guys do a year? Do you guys talk about that?
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There's five or seven. I've never got in on the West Wing.
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The whole thing about the great debate that America needs to have, I think it's still like the missing aspect of modern politics is everything gets- Explain the great debate, yeah.
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Well, the great debate is like, let's talk about the topic that's at hand and talk about it on the merits of what's right for the country, as opposed to everything being about attacking because the other side brought the idea forward. And now we have to attack the other side and frame the idea as being beneficial to them and hurtful to us.
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Nothing actually gets resolved because we don't end up having objectivity around these conversations around some of the major issues that the country faces, many of which, by the way, both sides have valid points of view.
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And if we can kind of have the great debate, if we can have these conversations like Doge, right, like abortion, like, you know, the rights of states, like spending, like there are all these things that we should be talking about rather than use that moment as a way to attack the other side politically so I can make sure I've got points and kudos leading into the next election cycle.
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a trillion dollars a year is processed through your network.
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It's just awful. Anyway, I missed that about the West Wing. It feels like a purist, like just a beautiful way of thinking about how this could really work.
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During the 90s, during the Clinton era, you're saying?
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Maybe they were, I mean, maybe they were the compromising party because, I mean, tell me another modern Democrat president that's had any point of view on balancing the budget and creating a surplus, which I think was aligned with the Reagan point of view at the time. And he kind of, you know, again, as J.L.
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said, he was a centrist and he brought the parties closer together rather than farther apart with...
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I want to ask you guys questions about ARK Institute and the EVO model. We should do that.
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Patrick runs the ARK Institute, right?
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And sorry, is there a phenotypic data set that's used in training? So I think like, you know, when you're typically... Right. And so when you're building models... in typical like genotype by phenotype models, you're trying to look at the phenotype, the physical characteristics of the organism. What can it do? What does it look like? What are the features? And then you look at the genome.
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And so that tells you, hey, these are the specific genes or alterations or mutations that drove this particular phenotype is kind of what the model tries to learn over time with the objective being, hey, can I ask it to define a genotype or a genome based on a phenotype, based on a physical set of characteristics I'm looking for or vice versa.
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Maybe you can just help us understand what is it trained on and how did that kind of prediction in BRCA, how is that possible?
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Oh, strays. On the whole modeling world, we talk a lot about the idea that you can kind of use a computer, state the phenotype or the physical characteristics you want in a biological organism, and have the software resolve the whole genome, all the DNA needed to make that physical organism real.
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And it can do it from its prediction ability on what genes, what combinations, but we're a couple orders away from that, right? I mean, I think like ultimately we always talk about, hey, We want to be able to define or have the software define the plant that can grow on the surface of Mars. It knows the soil type of Mars. It knows the air. It knows that it's carbon dioxide based.
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It's 10% of the Earth's atmosphere. This is what the daylight structure looks like. It needs to be wind tolerant. And then the software predicts an organism that might be able to do that. And obviously, there's a lot of this predictive work going on in proteins. Then the higher order is cells. So single cell organisms, microbial organisms, and then ultimately multicellular organisms.
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So plants, and then finally animals where you could basically create organisms from scratch using software. Cause we have all the other tools to biologically put these pieces together today, but this is a great kind of, I view it as a pyramid. There's a ton of phenotypic data that still needs to be fed and ultimately to kind of have us all understand protein, protein models and a lot more to it.
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But it's a great, I think that,
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And the sequencing data got ahead of the phenotyping data because there's so much sequencing data that's come in. So you can do a beautiful job predicting correctness in a genome.
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Salute to the American chestnut here.
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And the black pod fungus and cacao and coffee is being destroyed. TR4 is destroying banana right now.
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So this is, yeah, I mean, this is exactly what we aim to address at Ohalo. So in some cases, you can actually silence a gene that's a suppressor of immune function of the organism, which can actually improve disease resistance.
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Yep. So ultimately, if you're going to use a genomic method, you would transform the genome. So you would edit the genome and you would regenerate a plant or regenerate a tree and then propagate that tree.
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We'd have to replant the trees. And ultimately... Do you do custom projects? Can we do a little thing on ash in Ireland? Absolutely. That is some of the work we do. So we announced a few weeks ago a partnership with the University of Florida... So you use our methods to basically introduce disease resistance for major fungal pathogen that's destroying the Florida strawberry crop.
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And so that's what we call a trait program at Ohalo, where we can identify a specific genomic trait that we can go and introduce into that plant. But then you're right, you do have to grow all the plants back and then put them back in the ground.
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Yeah, but no, I'm very optimistic. We know how to address these solutions. We know how to regenerate the trees. We can do this quickly. We can resolve these problems. But you are right.
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So those are very interesting ones because insects, you can actually build very specific defense mechanisms against insects, but we generally have to improve genetic diversity
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And in doing so, you know, there's a natural resistance because the evolutionary, like the reason we have a TR4 problem in banana, all the world's banana that we grow commercially comes from one original banana clone called dwarf Cavendish. And they took that one plant, they cut clippings of it, put it in the ground, grow another plant, cut clippings of that, and they kept multiplying it.
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So all the bananas we eat and all the bananas that are planted across tens of millions of acres worldwide come from one original clone. And because of that, this fungus has been exceptionally capable of evolving itself to better eat that banana plant. And so 60 cents of every dollar we spend on bananas today goes towards fungicide.
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We're spraying these banana trees once or multiple times a week to kill this fungus. We're consuming that. It's super expensive. And if we had genetic diversity, if we had better genetics in the banana programs around the world, we'd be able to radically improve.
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The raptors are coming for you.
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NASA dropped the probability of it hitting Earth to one and a half percent. So every day when the sky gets dark, they can do a better job seeing this asteroid that everyone's freaking out about. So we finally got a good night sky two nights ago. The telescopes were able to get a better trajectory reading on it.
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And that allows the models to make estimates on the probability of this asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 when it's projected to cross our orbit. And so right now the probability is estimated at 1.5% that it will hit the earth.
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And based on the size of this asteroid, there's this range, it goes up to 320 feet in diameter, as small as 80 feet in diameter, which actually can have a pretty big effect on how big of an energy release there would be if it actually hit the earth. So even on the high end, if it was call it 300 feet, it would be the equivalent of call it a 20 megaton bomb, which is not insignificant.
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If it were that big, it would hit the earth. If it was smaller than that, it would probably just detonate me air and create a massive shockwave and firestorm. But the region that it would decimate would be limited to probably a couple dozen miles, up to a thousand miles of effect.
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And if you look at the total surface area of the earth, you know, we're talking about 10 to 15% of the earth, having people that habitate, you know, enough people to habitate.
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Yeah. So it's one and a half percent chance of hitting the earth and then call it a 15% chance.
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Yeah. And then it's a function of how big it is. If it's actually as small as 80 feet, then it's not going to be that significant, even if it does get close to habited areas. So yeah, I'm not losing sleep over it.
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Yeah, incredible.
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Yeah, so you want to talk about it?
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It's about the same size.
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The Tunguska asteroid was at like 160, 200 feet. So if this asteroid is in that range and it hits the Earth, you have this kind of explosion in the air. If it gets above, I think 250 roughly is where they think, that it doesn't burn up fully in the air and it actually will strike the Earth. But yeah, that's... There you go.
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This is roughly what we saw happen, what we think the size will be if it hits.
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Yeah. But relative to the earth, this is like tens of thousands of kilometers an hour, right? It's a, it's a very fast moving object. It's pretty small, right? 160 feet. So you've now got to figure out the exact trajectory, get it perfectly right. Get a launch off of the earth,
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and intercept this thing at the exact moment that you need to push it off course or detonate something nearby it to redirect it. So technically very complicated, very hard to pull off, but this is exactly why we have this planetary defense funding at NASA, which is to track these objects. And this is another example, by the way, where I would say AI can play an important role.
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And I'd love Patrick and John to opine on this, but I have a thesis that AI, more than anything, unlocks deeply complicated projects for humans that would otherwise be kind of infeasible in the pre-AI era.
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I think in the post AI era, we're going to be like, oh, here's all these projects that we do that are like, oh, we, you know, we, we on a daily basis, we mine to the center of the earth and we get cool, like rare earth minerals from like 500 miles down.
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And we go to space and colonize the moon and all these crazy things because AI unlocks these large scale projects that would require millions of people to do things in a coordinated way. And AI can be very smart in this way. But I think AI could play a role also in these planetary defense initiative concepts, J-Cal, in the future where you can actually build a complete project model in software.
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on how you would actually address this problem and then, you know, go execute it with automation. And, but yeah, there's a planetary defense function at NASA. They track these objects and they're funded to do it. So we hope that NASA continues to get funding to do this work. Very important.
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And guys that just came through that NASA just dropped the probability of an impact event to about a one third of 1%. So it's gotten even smaller, which is we can all go to sleep comfortably. All right.
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Wednesday at 9 p.m. Wednesday at 9 p.m. Oh, perfect.
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Yum, yum.
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I should have gotten some counsel ahead of signing up for Celebrity Jeopardy on the lack of upside in doing this. And you will see why. We'll talk next week. Oh, no. Oh, no. You lost to Anna Navarro. You lost to The View? You didn't lose to The View, did you? Look, guys, I'm just telling you.
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Let me just tell you. Well, we'll talk about it afterward.
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Love you. Bye-bye. See you next time. Bye, boys. We'll let your winners ride.
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Rain Man, David Sack.
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And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, West. Nice squeeze. We need to get merch.
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I mean, I'll preview one use case from 8090, which is pretty stunning. You know, we work with a very large regulated, highly regulated company, public company. And they have a very complicated set of people and processes because of the field in which they're in. And David, your point is exactly right. It took us a fairly long time.
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But we're at a point now where we've been running AI powered software versus the old legacy deterministic solution. And we've been running it at 100% accuracy now for about 10 days. So this is still very new. And it's an incredible thing because to your point, our first version was like in the mid 80s, then we were in the mid 90s, then we were 97, 98%, but there were still errors.
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And it just took a lot of engineering to figure out how to get to 100, but now it's at 100 and it's been consistently at 100. And so we're all kind of like scratching our head because now the next step is, well, what do we do? To your point. What do we do? So we're figuring that out right now.
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But the art of the possible is that I think well-crafted AI software is as good as deterministic software in the sense that the error rates will be equivalent in production and at the level of a very highly regulated public company. And I think that's the gold standard because in those sectors, those companies have zero tolerance. It's not a toy. It's not even level one customer support.
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It's system of record type work. Yeah. But it shows what's possible. And to your point, Sax, we're doing that today, even though they're the best models. Imagine how good the underlying models will get in a year from now.
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Right? And we'll be able to take on more and more work. It's very stunning, actually.
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Well, the thing with O1 is that I think it's starting to add reasoning. But the way that you do reasoning is sort of this idea that you have this chain of thought And I think that that's a very powerful but early concept.
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And as we refine those ways in which these models get to better answers, the wonderful thing is that OpenAI will preview 01, and then they'll have the actual 01 production build probably in the next couple of months, which will be probably pretty spectacular. But then you'll see something from Claude, you'll see something from Lama. And the real...
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Art, I think, and this is where I do think it's a little bit of alchemy still, which I think is good because it keeps humans involved, all of us involved.
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Is how do you stitch all of those things together to get to a 0% error rate? What Zach said, you know, how do you minimize the blast radius and how do you make sure these things are super high quality?
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Well, and people don't... It's still a very hard technical problem. Go ahead, Saxon, then I'll show you what ChatGP is doing.
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You're making such a good point. So when we were trying to figure out like what applications we would build and like which sectors of the economy we would go after, I was like, guys, we got to go after the hardest, most regulated places.
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I've never seen him happier. We've only put out half the clips and they've already gotten 20 million views.
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Because those are the things and places and people that have absolutely zero tolerance for error and where you're going to need to do some amount of customization and specialization to actually solve these problems. And Saks, to your point, like when you see, and I said, you cannot, we cannot touch customer service.
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We cannot touch it because it's going to get commoditized and run over by these foundational models within a year.
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I mean, it's just too easy.
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And by the way, just to build on that, the other thing that's now possible, and you saw this with Klarna, because Klarna put out this cryptic tweet slash press release where, I think maybe it was in their earnings. Nick, maybe you can find this, where they're like, we've deprecated Salesforce and worked it. That was strange, yeah. How can a company that big deprecate those two systems of record?
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How is that even, it's, how is it possible? I think it means they're writing their own, right? Well, I'll tell you how it's possible. And so this is like this next crazy thing that's been happening. We've been doing a version of this to go after some other sources of software. We haven't had the balls, to be honest, to go after Salesforce or Workday, but here's how they do it.
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They write these agents. and these agents can spawn other agents, right? So it's very classic kind of machine that builds a machine. And you start to observe the inputs and outputs of a system, right? I'm hyper simplifying, but I'm just, it'll make the point.
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And over time, what the agents start to do is by observing the inputs and the outputs, they start to guess on what the intervening code is, and the code paths must be in the middle to generate the outputs based on these inputs. And so over time, what happens is you develop a digital twin, And then you run that against that counterfactual, against Workday or Salesforce.
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And then at some point, you're like, it's the same. And you just turn it off. And you're saving yourself tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. So it's a version of what Klarna did. It takes an enormous amount of technical strength to do it. It also takes tremendous, I think, executive courage and leadership, because I think that's a very difficult decision to embark on.
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But if you're an engineer, that must be an unbelievably exciting technical challenge to be a part of. But that's the basic premise of what they were able to do. Hopefully, they share more and maybe they even open source what they did, because I think it would just be an amazing experience. thing for all of us to look at.
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You scale through people.
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And those are very expensive products, thousands of dollars per user, right? I want to I want to get Sax's point of view, like the thing in enterprise software that we were always told is you cannot touch these systems of record, don't ever start a systems of record company, don't try to touch these systems of record companies don't, you know, try to disrupt them. It's an impossible task.
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But then the question is, if you have these things, Why do you necessarily need a system of record in the way that you needed to before when you were writing all this clunky, deterministic code?
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I don't think you're right. I don't think it's easy to do because I don't think there's a generalization here that's productizable. Do you know what I mean? Like, I do think that these are very custom specific things. So maybe there's like some scaffolding, but I don't think that that scaffolding has a ton of economic value. I think it's really good open source stuff.
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I think it's what you build on top of it. And so that hasn't been figured out yet for sure.
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Nick, show this tweet to these guys. Here's the tweet. Oh, this was a crazy one, yeah. But look at the code. Look at the actual product itself for a second.
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But that was 600, sorry, it was a billion dollars that NYC paid Oracle 600 million to build our course management portal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The reason I wanted to show this to you is I think that these kinds of things will not be possible in the future. I just don't see how one could... spend a billion dollars if one tried to, to enable that feature. It would be impossible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
You know the answer. You know the answer. Say the answer, Jason. Corruption. No, come on, Jason. Incompetence. Really?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
They haven't delivered any of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
That's the answer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Chamath, your thoughts? One comment is, and this is so sad, but I'm so desensitized by the amount of waste that I don't know whether 50 billion is a lot or a little anymore when it comes to the United States government. Isn't that sad? Because now everything I hear is in hundreds of billions and trillions, but 50 billion is an enormous amount of money, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
If I had to just take a step back and just generalize going forward, do we want to live in the kind of administrative state where they will pick people that they dislike based on totally random criteria, a tweet, a meme, a post, and then all of a sudden punish a bunch of the rest of us because of that. They're punishing all of America because they collect our taxes to waste on it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And then they punish the people that they actually say they're going to uplift by not delivering what they promised. And if you take Elon out of it for a second, The problem was when we crossed the chasm and did it with the first guy, him. But the reality is there's only one of him and then there's a lot of the rest of us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And what'll happen is people just get added to this list of folks that certain nameless, faceless people in the administrative state dislike. And what happens is the country slows down and the country wastes money and the country pilfers it away. And that has to stop. And so what really bothers me about these things is A,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I don't know how to undesensitize myself to the fact that all of a sudden now because of just all of this sloppy waste, I didn't react as much as I should have to just $50 billion being flushed down the toilet on these two projects. And then two, Jason, your point, it is a solved problem that you can give incredibly cheaply.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And the fact that it's not left to private enterprise to solve this, and instead, it's just brazen partisanship combined with retaliation combined with incompetence,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And just to give the Democrats their due, what happens if then Trump does the same thing for a solution that you support and you need and you think should be everywhere? The point is, we don't want any of this stuff. Under any administration. And the minute that one administration breaks the seal and makes it acceptable, it becomes part of the water table. And that's the real problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
We broke the seal on this crazy multi-multi-trillion dollar spending, and it has just never stopped since then.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
We'll be around 50 million, I think, when all the clips are released and you let it bake for a couple of months. That is an astoundingly large...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I really applaud the people that have the courage to show this stuff on X, to tweet this stuff out so that the rest of us know about it, and the person that talked about the NYC thing. But then the next step has to happen, which is that we all need to decide that this stuff needs to stop, otherwise it's going to bankrupt our country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Because this is our children's future. Is it true that Kamala was the broadband czar that was responsible for this thing? I mean, who knows? No, because I saw that a bunch of senators wrote a letter to her, and they claimed that she was the broadband czar, but I don't know if that's true or not true, and whether she was responsible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I do worry that there's a growing version of the Elon derangement syndrome that's also kind of like festering. Yeah, for sure. Which it just stops people from thinking rationally. Of course.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I thought your moderation was excellent this time. It was better than before, because I think that you're actually exceptional as a moderator, and I think you're mostly average as a conference producer. Yeah. I do think as a moderator, you're excellent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I agree with everything you're saying except the last part. I don't think it's on behalf of their constituents. I don't think any of us see any benefit from any of this spending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But who's winning in this? It's not like this $42 billion lining the pockets of, I don't know, names.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
For sure, all those fiber companies that are going to lay that fiber are going to get that money. And then they're going to kick back 40,000 a home. But it's been three or four years. They haven't done a single thing. I mean, I still think they're cash the checks. It seems like we're at the stage of just pure incompetence and retaliation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
We're not even at the stage of actually then giving it to anybody else. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Of course they're not. Well, I think the good news is that the more of these things we shine a light on, the harder it'll be to... hide when these grants are actually given or what the execution is. And let's start a running list.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
No, to your point, Sacks, maybe like, you know, we need a revival of the 60 minutes, you know, waste, fraud and abuse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I mean, like some of the most memorable moments were you basically drawing out contrasting opinions and the way that the people engaged with them was so healthy and good. That was the, I think the recurring theme. So I give you an enormous amount of credit. I think you did an exceptional job, but I also think it's because you were able to focus on what you're doing. Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
My gosh, venture is a really, really tough business. Every year for the last seven, six years, seven years, I have published my returns, which most VCs don't want to do. I do it because I go back and I look at it and I think having public accountability actually drives some good decisions. They may seem suboptimal in the moment, but they, in the long run, turn out to be good decisions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And the biggest one has been generating liquidity. So Nick, you can throw up this thing, but I'm sure there are funds in each of these vintages that have done way better than me. So I'm not saying it is what it is, but
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
What I want to point out is if I go and look inside of these funds and tell you how hard it has been to generate this DPI, it's like dragging an entire just- Sack of potatoes over the finish line. It's like a truck of dead bodies over a finish line. It is super, super hard. And the things that we have fought are two. One is that the gestation of companies has totally blown out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
We used to be in a world where by year five, six, or seven, you could return money. You just can't do that anymore unless you get extraordinarily lucky, which by the way, I got when Saks was running Yammer. It was an enormous win for all of us, but that is just exceptionally rare.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Yeah, but there's so few entrepreneurs capable of that. He's one of maybe five or 10. So other than that, I've never really had a company that has generated liquidity in year five, six, or seven. They've always generated, if they've generated it at all, in years 11, 12, and 13.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And so the problem with that is that at some point you have these paper marks that say you're winning and things are working, but there's no path to liquidity. So then what I did was I stepped in to the secondary markets and I would sell. And it would really upset certain founders.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But I was very clear that when I was running outside capital, and I was running outside capital on behalf of really organizations that I believed in, the Broad Foundation, the Mayo Clinics, Memorial Sloan Kettering, my job was to get them money back. These were their pension funds. These were the things that they used to build facilities. Cancer research.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Cancer research, I didn't have the ability to just sit on my hands and say, oh, you know what, year 15, don't worry. So it's just meant to say that the tactics of generating liquidity in venture are very misunderstood and very underappreciated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And even then, you sell some things that are just absolute winners that had you waited another five or six years would have turned another, you know, one or two turns. But that's not the job. The job is not to maximize absolute every single win. The job is to return capital in a reasonable time period so that your investors don't run out of money to give you. So it's a tough game, man.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
It is really, really, really tough. Yeah, and the insight- And sorry, by the way, and I feel this now because the last five or six years has been entirely my own capital. And my gosh, it's hard. Managing liquidity, it's impossible, especially when you can't rely on anybody else. So it's a tough game.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I would have been in real trouble without reasonably liquid secondary markets. Myself included. My numbers would be a quarter of what they are.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
That's broken. The IPO process is broken. I tried... to flip that on its head with SPACs. Some work, some didn't, many didn't in the end. Many of mine didn't work out at the end. There was a period where it looked like it was working, but these are all attempts at changing the liquidity cycle of these companies because the way that things stand today, we are not in a sustainable industry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
It is if you raise funds and think about fee generation, But it is not if you think about returning money to founders, LPs, getting employees compensated for many years of oil that they put in. It's a very tough game right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
It's like slightly above Elon's one. Really? Oh, just behind you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
There's no DPI possible. You nailed it and Sachs nailed it. And the thing to remember is both of those two things now work together to erode the return stream for the general partner, but really, most importantly, for the limited So I do think that we are in a situation where the average returns are going to decay by 50 to 100% because of what SAC said and because of what you said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
On top of that, I don't think we know what the actual cap structure needs to be for a successful AI company. Is it 20 people that does the work of 2000 now because they have all of these agents and systems that work on their behalf? If that's true, giving that company hundreds of millions of dollars is actually the opposite of what you want to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, I think that if you look at the one from last year, Graham Allison, where he got a standing ovation, the thing is there are these village elders where they are at a point in their life where they're willing to just be a truth teller. But oftentimes they're deplatformed and we have the ability to actually bring some of the smartest of them on and give them a voice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
You want to give that company 10 or 15 and then let them cook. And so we have a right sizing of capital problem that needs to happen. The data would tell you, though, that the industry understands that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
So the fact that we've gone from 50% of people being able to raise a fund to 12% means that a lot of people will get washed out of the industry, less capital being raised, which probably is foreshadowing the fact that these companies will need a lot less capital. But that has a lot of implications as it ripples through our economy. I think it's very good for the early stage.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I think you guys are very good there. You've talked about how it's good for you. It's very complicated, I think, for the expansion and growth stage capital. And then I think there's going to be another turn on what happens on the IPO markets because you can't have so many companies waiting. With very, very few ways of accessing public market capital and exposure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I just think that is fundamentally broken and we're going to have to reinvent. We tried once with SPACs. We're going to have to go back to the drawing board and try again. Correct listings, secondary markets that are more fluid.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Look at the thing that Saks just tweeted. Everybody's course correcting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Those middle vintages are just going to be garbanzo beans, 21, 22. Well, you know, that's such an interesting point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I think you're saying the dirty little secret of the venture business, which is at some point people get to a fork in the road. If they hyper-optimize for returns, I'll put Benchmark, I'll put Fred Wilson and USV, I'll put Sequoia's early stage fund. They have to introduce time diversity. They keep the funds small and they look to hit grand slams.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And it's incredible how much they resonate because what they say is so logical and sensible. That's a really important thing that we have now at our disposal. And I think that people really appreciate it. So I think we're doing a really important job in doing that. And now the question is, what village elders do we get next year to keep being truth tellers?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But there are many other people, and I would say the most of the set outside of that, take the road more traveled, which is then you optimize for size, which then becomes a fee game, and so you optimize for velocity. Get the funds out as quick as possible, raise a new fund. They have no intention of generating returns. because they have no ability to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
When you have absolutely no time diversity in this business, in a pool of capital, you're giving away one of your best edges. David just talked about it. As a smart practitioner, he was able to nurture these companies and all of a sudden they start to win. If you've all of a sudden flushed all your money in fund one, then you go to fund two, fund three. By the time something in fund one hits,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
What are you going to do? You're going to cross the funds, or you're going to justify taking money from the left hand to pay the right hand, or you're just going to let your ownership wane because you frittered all the money away. These are all the problems that most of these folks have encumbered themselves with. It's very difficult to get out of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
It's going to take – look, in fairness to them, they probably got good while the getting's good, so they'll make a ton of money in fees, but they will not be able to raise funds. And those fees are not clawed back, folks, for those of you playing along at home.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Start companies from your lips to God's ears. Love you guys. I got to go. Love you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
We need to get merch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, I think 2020, you have to put it at big asterisks because the question is, what would have happened had there not been COVID and had there not been an entire global shutdown? So if you go back to that chart, you could probably just extrapolate and cut out that part that's flat, because the part that's flat from 2020 to 2022 was largely artificially created.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Because on top of that, we injected so much money into the economy, the reality is we probably would have raised at some rate of change that you could have predicted from 2016. So what do you take away from that? I think that you have to realize we're at a point in the economy where you cut rates because there's tension. And there's tension between employment and unemployment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
It's marijuana. It's Freeburg's version of Founder Mode.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
There's tension between earnings, growth, and contraction. And so it's a stimulatory move. So if you look through that stimulatory move, why is the Fed doing this and why will they cut probably all the way down to 2% or 3% by the end of 2026? It's because we now need to stimulate the economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
So the reason why markets tend to fall once the rate cut cycle starts is because the next couple of quarters sort of demonstrate what I think the Fed is expecting, which is that there's pressure in the economy. We have not seen that flow through in earnings or in how companies describe markets on the field, by and large, except for a few.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
So I think this part of the cycle now will be about all of these companies telling us whether there's nothing to see here or whether there is actual real pressure. And if there is real pressure, it'll probably look like the several times before where you're just going to have to contract the value of financial assets because they're just not worth as much when they're earning less. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
That's the key thing. If you look at the dot plot and if you look at where the smart financial actors are betting where rates end. So it's hard to sort of like look at any point in time, 50 now, 25 later. What does it all mean? It's very hard to know. But what is much clearer is where do we think terminal rates will be even in the next 18 months?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And it is dramatically lower for where they are now. And I think that support sacks that argument that you just made, which is if you're going to basically cut this aggressively over the next year to year and a half by the estimates of very smart financial actors whose job it is to spend every day observing the Fed, then they must see something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Because otherwise, as you said, you could take a much more gradual approach. And so I think that the smart financial actors are guessing recession or guessing contraction. I think what they're also guessing is similar to nonfarm payrolls. We're going to go through a couple of difficult GDP revisions, probably downward.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And I think that will have an impact to people's sense of how the economy is doing even more than what their sense is today, which is already teetering on it's at best okay. And I think all of that has to play itself out. So it's going to be a very complicated and dynamic fall in that respect. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Rain Man, David Sack.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Rain Man, David Sack.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
That's pretty clear. I'd like to address that too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Just days before the shooting, Peter Thiel and Reid Hoffman had an exchange at Allen & Company that was publicly reported in which Peter said that Reid had turned Trump into a martyr by funding lawfare. And Reid responded, I wish I had turned him into an actual martyr. That's wishing for someone's death.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
When the news of the assassination attempt came online, I don't think it was Jack Black himself, but a member of his band said, that's too bad, the shot missed. There are other people on the Democrat side who expressed similar sentiments. They were disappointed that the assassination attempt had failed. Now, I don't think those people are mainstream political leaders.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I'm not going to try and hang that around Joe Biden. However, Biden himself, days before the shooting, said that it was time to put Trump in the bullseye. That's what he said. And his defense for that rhetoric was, well, I didn't say crosshairs. Well, I think bullseye means the same thing. Now, even that, I'm willing to basically... forgive because I don't think Biden meant it in a literal sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I think he was speaking rhetorically about, say, campaign ads, things like that. I wouldn't necessarily say that was violent rhetoric, okay? I'm not going to try and pin that on President Biden. But the thing I do think was unacceptable by President Biden and the Democrats is the level of demonization and the level of vitriol that they have pursued against President Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
not as a one-off statement, but as a campaign strategy. Again, they have said over and over again, this man is Hitler, this man is a fascist, this man is a threat to democracy. If he wins, it is the end of democracy. They have repeatedly gone there and repeatedly used, they've tried to Hitlerize him. Now, if you're saying that this man is Hitler, where else is there to go rhetorically?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
That's the worst thing you could ever say about somebody. And quite frankly, If he is Hitler, why would you be offering him thoughts and prayers after he gets shot? I mean, wouldn't it be a good thing to shoot Hitler?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And so I do think that if we think about the contribution of political rhetoric to what could have happened here, I'm not going to try and blame anybody for these one-off poor choices of language that could be interpreted as violent. What I will blame them for is taking the demonization up to 11, taking the vitriol up to 11, because that could...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
poison the mind of someone who's already mentally disturbed and say, okay, well, wait a second. If he is Hitler, why wouldn't I be Colonel Van Stauffenberg for assassinating him? Wouldn't I be a hero for trying to eliminate this man? And that's the thing that I think is really unacceptable. And I do think the Democrats should be blamed for that because, again, they made it a campaign strategy.
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Their entire argument against Donald Trump is not about issues. It's about this man being Hitler. And I think it's ridiculous. It's inflated. It's hyperbole, to be sure. And I think that we don't know yet about the mind of this shooter, this crooks. But if anything contributed to the shooting, it was that.
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That happened over eight years ago as like part of a text message exchange. It wasn't a public rhetoric as a campaign strategy. I'm talking about a systematic strategy that gets amplified. Look at the cover of the New Republic. They literally turned Donald Trump's face into the face of mashup of him and Adolf Hitler.
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And it's been amplified and repeated over and over and over again on MSNBC, on CNN, on all these liberal channels, okay? This is coordinated political rhetoric as a campaign strategy. It's not a one-off. I'm not going to blame anybody for a one-off that could be misinterpreted. But when you do this as a systematic, campaign strategy.
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And in fact, you base your entire campaign around the idea this man is a threat to democracy and a fascist. This is the language they used. Like I said, there's nowhere else to go after that. Where else do you go?
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Or have you seen the DEI another day memes? Yeah.
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I mean, look, it's a very unfortunate video.
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She may have just had a bad moment. Who knows? I mean, it did look pretty bad that she was having trouble holstering her weapon. I mean, you know, not that I'm a gun expert.
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But I mean, look, it's what's known as an outside the waistband holster, which is the easiest type of holster to use because you don't have to tuck it into your pants or anything like that. And I got to say, it does look pretty bad that she was having so much trouble just trying to holster her weapon.
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But look, I think this is only one of a number of questions that I think have been legitimately raised about the Secret Service performance. And we need... a full investigation to figure out what happened. And let me just run off a list of questions that I would like to see answered. So number one is how did they fail to cover that roof?
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It was the most obvious shooting spot in that entire Butler Farm area, and it was not properly covered. And then the Secret Service releases this statement that they didn't cover it because it was a sloped roof. which is the most ridiculous cover story ever because they did have snipers on another roof that was more sloped.
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So once you put out that cover story, which is basically a lie, you only make the situation worse and it only makes the question even more poignant of how do you feel to cover that roof? Okay, that's number one.
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And the secret service director, Cheadle, said that on ABC. Okay. So right there, she should be fired because she's lying to us at a moment where she should be cooperating and doing a full investigation. Okay.
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Okay, but that's just question number one, okay? Question number two is, like you said, he was a person of interest an hour before the shooting and no one went to go resolve that situation. Moreover, they see him with a range finder, okay? What the hell do you use a range finder for?
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I mean, he's scoping out the target with a range finder and they let the president go out there, okay, while they still have a person of interest out there. This guy has a range finder, he has a ladder, he has a backpack. And he was never intercepted. He was never stopped, even though they had identified him. And they let the president go out there.
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So clearly there was a huge failure of communication between the Secret Service and the Trump campaign. How did that happen? How was there no agent stationed at the fence such that they had to ram it with an SUV for the Secret Service to get through? I don't know if you guys knew about that part of it. OK.
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There was no agent stationed at the fence. So in order to get there, they rammed the fence with an SUV so the Secret Service could quickly get through. Oh my gosh. That's insane.
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That sniper must have identified crooks as a potential target and had him lined up, which is how he's able to take him out very quickly. But what was the chain of command there in terms of him seeking authorization? Hey, who is this person? Why wasn't everything stopped while they go to figure out what this person is doing on the roof there? Okay. And then once...
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Once the shots rang out and Trump gets shot, why did it take him so long to get him in the car, to get the convoy off to a hospital? There was a long delay in terms of getting him out of there. So they clearly weren't prepared for that. The whole thing, it just reeks of incompetence.
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But they don't have the right in a democracy to basically investigate themselves and say, oh, we're good. No, that's not how it works. The people of this country need accountability. The once and likely future president came within millimeters, centimeters of being assassinated. And this whole country could have been plunged into a whole different type of situation.
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We need answers to these questions. And this Director Cheadle is obviously in the way. and putting out nonsense, putting out spin at a time when we need a proper investigation. That needs to happen immediately. Cheadle should resign. We need to have agents, okay? Secret Service agents need to be offered up to testify on Capitol Hill with no fear of reprisal from the Biden administration, okay?
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Did you guys see there was coverage yesterday that showed there's actually two snipers?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. Well, no, sorry. There's two sets of snipers. There's four snipers. The one set of snipers that you see the video of where he does that, there's a tree blocking their ability to see crooks. The other set of snipers are the ones that apparently took the fatal shot and they had a line of sight, but they're not on camera. So you don't actually see what's going on with them. That's the current...
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reporting I've seen on it. So I don't want to like jump to conclusions given that there's now seeming to be- There's no excuse here because let me just say- If they saw the guy on the roof and they let the president on the stage, someone effed up. That doesn't seem appropriate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If we can put that bird's eye view of Butler Farm on the screen, I don't know, Nick, if you have that.
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Nick, pull it up where it shows the line of sight with the tree as well so you can see it all. Yeah, there it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But look at the shooter's position and look at Trump's position, okay? Yeah. And I've seen broader bird's eye views of Butler Farm. Without knowing anything about marksmanship, it's just obvious that that roof is the most – if you could set yourself up anywhere as a sniper to assassinate the president, it's the number one most obvious location.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Furthermore, let me just say that when Chamath and I hosted that dinner for President Trump – We worked with the Secret Service, you know, advance team and they were excellent. They were really great. And I saw just a little bit of their process and they went through the house. They mapped out the entire house, the entire property.
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Then they asked, well, where's the president gonna be sitting at dinner? They wanted to know who's to his right, who's to his left. They looked at the window coverage of that room and they said, okay, whose house is that? That neighbor's house. And they went to go check it out. Every single movement by the president was mapped out Every angle on the president was basically mapped out and explored.
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What happened here then? That's the crazy part. It was actually amazing to watch. I thought they did a great job.
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And so this is why, how could this ever have happened where the most obvious shooting angle on the president was not properly covered? It just makes no sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. Normally, they're very thorough, and they're very serious. I mean, look, even at the dinner that we hosted, they wanted to know what kind of steak knives we were using. Yeah. Like, literally, they wanted to make sure that that was safe.
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And this is why they were so interested in knowing who was to the president's right and to his left, because they want to think through every possible angle of attack on the president. There was some breakdown here. And in this case, something very strange happened.
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Yeah, but he wasn't dressed that way. He wasn't wearing a costume or he wasn't impersonating.
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Absolutely. It's just like the Afghanistan withdrawal. Remember that? No heads rolled. There was no proper investigation of why so many people died unnecessarily in that Afghanistan withdrawal.
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Well, exactly. And I tweeted this counterfactual, which is imagine if Elon had bought Twitter, but he wasn't allowed to fire anybody. Do you think he would have been able to restore free speech? Do you think he'd be able to restore innovation? No. If you're running an institution, you have to be able to fire people when they don't perform. But we have lost that ability of our federal government.
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So there's something that's very, very broken here. When people fail, they have to be held accountable or you don't get good performance.
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Right. When institutions fail, there needs to be a question on why are we funding those institutions? Nobody gets fired. Why would you give more money to a failing company? You'd never do it. This is the comment I put in the letter that I sent to that senior Democrat back in October. I don't see any accountability with respect to the programs that you pass bills to fund.
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You pass bills to fund these programs, you stand up new institutions, and then there is never a retrospective postmortem or review on the performance of those institutions or the objective of those programs. And yet we keep funding them and asking for more money. And eventually you end up with a decaying empire like we've seen in history.
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We need to have a series of actions that drive accountability in federal programs and then a review on the intention of those programs and make sure that they still hold. And then we can move forward with new programs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Did you see all those senators chasing him up the stairs yesterday? You see that? I did see that. It didn't say which senators it was.
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Or should Blackburn. What happened? So a bunch of the senators confronted the head of the Secret Service. Cheadle is her name, right?
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And they confronted her. And there's someone videoed the whole thing on their iPhone of them saying, we need answers. Why did you let this happen? Here's a video. Nick can show it. Here, just watch it.
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That's a bad video because what it does not show is the start and the end. At the start, they were all standing around her having a conversation. And then they started to press her. And she said, now's not the time. This isn't the forum. Then she took off. They followed her. And then she went into the Secret Service secure room upstairs and blocked all the senators from coming into the room.
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Her Secret Service staff blocked them. So all the guards said, no, you can't come in. So they all got blocked out. So the senators were pushing her for some feedback, for conversation, for dialogue, and she wouldn't engage. Yeah.
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Oh my gosh. I've seen enough. Resign now. Get out of the way so a proper investigation can be done. Total, total, total. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Give us the behind the scenes. Yeah. And what was it like getting prepped and doing all the kind of prep work? Do you have to review your speech? Tell us all the details.
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Yeah. Well, let's see. I mean, I started working on this about, I don't know, a week before the convention. And they sent me some ideas for remarks. And then I completely rewrote it with my research assistant slash writer, and then sent it to them. And there was some back and forth. But by and large, they let me do what I wanted to do.
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The one thing that was kind of set was the time and they correlated the time with a number of words. So they said you've got six minutes, which is 600 words. And so that's what we work towards. And then the big thing I had to learn was just how to use the teleprompter.
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So they had these rooms set up where there were teleprompters and I could do some training on how to read a speech using a teleprompter. What is that like? It's just a matter of knowing where to look and trying to stay natural, but also using the prompter as a mnemonic device. And does the prompter stop when you stop or how does that work?
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There is actually somebody in the room who is physically advancing the words as you're speaking. And so there's someone who's actually working the prompter and they will go out.
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Exactly, exactly. So that was probably the biggest thing to learn. And then the other thing about it is that you're speaking to a huge convention hall. And so you feel like you really want to project in order to kind of reach people. But at the same time, you're really speaking on TV. As you guys know, you'll come across as being kind of insane if you start like yelling into a TV set.
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So finding the right balance between speaking to people in the auditorium and speaking to people watching from home That's kind of tricky. And I'm reasonably happy with it. And the most important thing is I got to say the substance of what I said.
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Not universally popular, right? I mean, you basically called for an end to the conflict in Ukraine and to stop funding Ukraine's defense against Russia. And that's not a popular opinion in the Republican Party. Is that right?
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Well, I went further than that. I said that this was not an unprovoked war. It was a provoked war. I said the Biden administration provoked the war with talk of NATO expansion. You can disagree with that if you want. I think there's plenty of evidence for it. That's what I believe.
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I feel like you went out on a limb more than most other speakers who kind of had a lot of good laudatory comments and, you know, promoted Trump. Yeah, you could have pandered. Yeah, you actually went out with a strongly held opinion that is, you know, fairly contrarian, right?
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Well, I think that most of the people in the Republican Party, including most people on the floor, actually agreed with me. I think it took them a second to process what I had said. And so, you know, what I saw when I was up there is I said that, you know, Biden provoked, yes, provoked the war.
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And I think it was such a shocking statement to a lot of people because we've heard the whole unprovoked invasion narrative so many times that there were like murmurs and then people got it and they started applauding. I never actually intended it to even be an applause line. I just thought it was an important thing to state the truth as I see it on the record at the Republican convention.
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And that line did actually get applause. Now, a bunch of Ukraine stans were predictably outraged by what I said, and they were trying to claim online that somehow I'd been booed or something like that. There were absolutely no boos. There were actually people applauding. And then as I got deeper and deeper into the speech, people applauded it more and more.
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It was very much a speech that attacked the forever wars. It attacked the warmongers and complimented President Trump for keeping us out of wars. And complimented him for being strong, but also having the savviness and the ability to negotiate with our adversaries to keep us out of wars. And I think that's now a position that's very popular within the Republican Party, but it's a process.
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It's evolving.
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I mean, I'm friends with him and I very much supported his selection for VP.
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Well, there's a couple of things. So J.D. Vance represents a couple of very interesting characteristics. On the one hand, he's from this poor region of Appalachia. that really represents the forgotten man or the forgotten cities and towns in America. You could call it the MAGA heartland. And so MAGA really likes him. At the same time, he's worked in tech. He was a venture capitalist.
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He understands the future and he's popular in tech. So it's very unusual to get somebody who has MAGA plus tech on their side together. So that's one almost contradiction you could say that JD represents. Here's another one. J.D. Vance was in high school when the Twin Towers came down.
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And then we invaded Iraq, and he was gung-ho to serve and to go exact retribution and justice on America's enemies. And he enlisted in the Marine Corps, and he went off to serve in the Iraq War. Subsequently, he realized that we had all been lied to about the Iraq War and that it was a gigantic mistake. And moreover, the forever wars were a huge mistake.
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And to me, this is something that I really appreciate about him. And this is a quality that I really want at President Trump's side, which is he's an American patriot. He had the courage to serve, to go serve in America's wars. But he has the wisdom and the judgment to want to avoid those wars when we don't need to fight them.
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And there's way too many of, like you said, Jason, these neocons, these warmongers in the party who've never, ever acknowledged their mistake in the Iraq war and all the forever wars. And they seem on virtually a daily basis to want to plunge us into the next forever war.
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So this is, I think, a quality that's of paramount importance to have in our commander in chief and in the person who would be next in line to be commander in chief. All right. For these reasons, I very much support J.D.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. I thought he was an incredible pick before his speech last night, and he even exceeded my expectations in that speech. I just thought it was truly an incredible speech. First of all, the introduction by his wife, Usha, was really... incredible. I thought she did a fantastic job. And then he got up there and I had a friend text me who's not really that into politics.
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He's just like, this guy seems so normal. He's happy. He's normal. He seems competent. There was one commentator, I think on one of the cable shows who I think meant this as an insult, but it actually was positive. He said that when you're at a fast food restaurant or something and need to ask for the manager, J.D. Vance is the person you hope is the manager. He comes out. He's friendly.
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He's competent. He's reasonable. He knows how to get stuff done. I'm not sure if that was meant as an insult or a compliment. It's meant as an insult. Yeah, I can tell you that's meant as an insult. Yeah, but I think it's a compliment, right? And he's just so normal. He's going to be very hard to demonize. Obviously, they're trying to do it on cable news. They're somehow trying to portray him as
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an extremist or a racist, even though he has a mixed race family.
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She was excellent. She was excellent. She was fantastic. I thought she was excellent.
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She's a feminist.
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I thought her speech was effective. I thought it was authentic. And it described her red-pilling, basically. It described her evolution and her journey from someone who believed the media's lies about Trump, thinking that he was a racist, to actually meeting the man herself, realizing that the way they had portrayed him was basically a slander, and how she became friends with President Trump.
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I thought it was an incredibly effective speech. But look... There was very few people who didn't like it. There was this one post by Matt Walsh online, and he was roundly denounced for what he said. I mean, he kind of engaged in this pearl clutching that they had allowed Amber Rose to speak because of her background.
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And it's like, who's Matt Walsh to judge? It felt like a part of the Republican Party that's on its way out. You know, this pearl clutching social conservatism. In any event, it was really an opportunity, I think, for people to disavow his criticism and support her.
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Everything has proceeded as I have foreseen. We'll let your winners ride.
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Absolutely. Youth and vigor. And again, this new direction. A lot of people were commenting about J.D. 's speech that large parts of it could have been given by Bernie Sanders. It's this populist message that
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and being pro-union how do you reconcile all that and and this new republican party yeah address those two because that seems to be a big discussion two discussion topics yeah i think that it's definitely a new emergent republican party where this is i think this is donald trump's republican party this is the maga wing the america first wing of the republican party we're moving from a party of basically the chamber of commerce you know business round table
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a bunch of oligarchic fat cats to being a populist party that actually represents the people. And I think it's a very- And unions. And they had the Teamsters up there, yeah. And I think it's a very welcome change. And the part of JD's speech that I like the best is when he described
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that, hey, I went off and many other people went off to fight in these forever wars, risking our lives or giving our lives. We come back to our home communities, and what do we find? We find them hollowed out. The jobs have all been exported. The factories have shut down. And instead, the town has been poisoned by fentanyl.
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That is a message that you have not heard in the Republican Party, except for Donald Trump and that new part of the party. And I think that Donald Trump choosing J.D. Vance was so important to cement this new vision of the Republican Party. It was a legacy pick because it means that this America First MAGA message is going to continue into the future, many years into the future.
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And let me just tell you, as I listened to that speech, I hearkened back to another speech at a public convention I heard 32 years ago. I'm sorry to say I'm old enough to actually remember these things. And I remember Pat Buchanan's speech in 1992. And After Pat described the factory workers who lost their jobs, I just want to read you what he said, and I want you to think about what J.D. said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
So what Buchanan said was, my friends, these people are our people. They don't read Adam Smith or Edmund Burke, but they come from the same schoolyards and the same playgrounds and towns as we come from. They share our beliefs and convictions, our hopes and dreams. They are the conservatives of the heart. They are our people, and we need to reconnect with them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
We need to let them know we know how bad they're hurting. They don't expect miracles of us, but they need to know we care. And I think that for too long, Republican leaders ignored that advice. They didn't connect with everyday Americans. They were foolishly willing to cut programs like Social Security or Medicare, saying that we had to cut the deficit while at the same time funding forever wars.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
So totally not credible. And the party was basically led by warmongers like Dick Cheney or Mitch McConnell or soulless bean counters like Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. And I think Vance really broke with all of that. And I think he represents the future of the party. He trashed the Iraq war. He promised no more foreign interventions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
He railed against policies that benefit multinational corporations at the expense of workers. And I think it's no wonder that the neocons lobbied so hard against his selection. But I think those days are over. And I think that, just let me just say at this end with this, that I think that Donald Trump and J.D. Vance represent a conservatism of the heart. that we haven't seen before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And I think this is the future of the Republican Party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Vance, take it. I think he's going to do well for Trump. I think if he... Who are his other options? Nikki Haley...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Not my favorite. I met him. Seemed like a really thoughtful guy. He's done an incredible job managing the state of North Dakota, but he's got some... social policy issues that I think are going to rub people the wrong way. And I think to Sax's point, he's more in the camp of supporting Ukraine, which it seems like some part of the party are starting to come around and say no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
So it seems like he wasn't a great fit ultimately.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Yeah. By the way, I met Doug Burgum the other night and he's a very nice man who I think could play a very important role. Very nice guy who I think can play a major, major role in the party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Incredible business. Sold it to Microsoft.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Yeah, there's nobody who understands, I think, energy better and all the regulations that have gotten in the way of making America energy independent and tapping our vast energy reserves. So I found him very, very impressive on that. But at the end of the day, you know, it's just not the kind of pick that J.D. is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I'm very happy that RFK Jr. was not selected as the VP to be on the ticket. I think RFK would have been a challenging partner for Trump and it would have led to a lot of disagreements. And I think that RFK has some policy perspectives that I don't agree with, particularly as it relates to health, energy, agriculture. And so there are some disagreements I have with respect to his view of the world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I will say JD seems like a pragmatist. He seems highly intelligent. He seems highly competent. And I know that he has not been in a governing position before, right? So this is really critical to note. This is a training job for him in a large way. He's been a senator and he's been an investor and he's been an individual contributor as an investor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
He's built his own firm, but it's not a scaled firm. So this is going to be a really interesting kind of process to watch unfold.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
But I think from a policy and a strategy perspective, he can have a really positive impact on the direction of the things that we talked about earlier, which is accountability and government programs, having a clear set of objectives, making sure that we focus on those objectives and don't spend time and resources on things that are fluff and perhaps aren't really meeting the objectives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And I think that he'll have, the thing I do have concern about, I think that the nationalist agenda, the nationalism and the isolationism agenda is counter to global trade, which can be deeply inflationary. And that is one concern I do have, which is the ability for the US to export and import
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
with other trade partners around the world, I think it's critical for us to continue to grow our economy and keep inflation down. So if we take policy action that limits our ability to import because we impose tariffs on other countries' goods and services, it can be inflationary, makes things more expensive for Americans, everyday Americans to buy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
When everyday Americans go into Walmart and they buy products, a lot of those products are shipped from China. So if there's a tariff on those products and the price of those products now goes up by 30, 40%, that can be a real burden. That drives inflation. That's the point about the nationalism on manufacturing and inputs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
No, no. I think that the idea, the general statement, which I don't think is necessarily how this is being executed. I just want to make sure that we're all cognizant of the point that if you introduce tariffs on imports, it will drive prices up. Now, that may be the right thing to do from a policy perspective.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
As we heard from President Trump when we interviewed him, his belief is that this is an important security stake, that we use it to drive reciprocity and we use it to hold China in check. And so that may be a more important strategic priority over the increase in the price of certain goods.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
The problem that will arise, and this happened during the last Trump administration, if China then responds with tariffs on the export of US agricultural products, so our biggest buyer of agricultural products today is China, and then China put tariffs on our export or they stopped buying, from the US and they started buying from Brazil instead. The farmers are hurt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And when the farmers are hurt, the Trump administration had to spend money to support farmers, tens of billions of dollars.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
They subsidized, they paid farmers in a way. And so the federal government then has to step in to meet the gap that arises from what will end up becoming an escalating tariff problem or an escalating purchasing problem. So global trade allows the economy to grow, gives everyone a market, you can start to trade, but there's also these security issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I do think it's important that we onshore a lot of manufacturing. I think it's important But there's going to be a period of pain. There's going to be an investment needed. And it's not going to be simple and easy. And we may face quite a bit of inflation on the path to doing that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
So this week we are opening up scholarship applications. You can go to summit.allinpodcast.co. And we have a very, very, very limited number of scholarship tickets that we hold for the summit like we did the last two years. The applications are open now. Please get your application in right away because we expect it will be completely overbooked almost immediately.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And some of those scholarships are going to be sponsored by Athletic Brewing Company. So thank you to Athletic Brewing Company for paying for a lot of our scholarship recipients to go to the All In Summit this year. Really exciting programming coming together. We have more details to share in the next couple of weeks. And we do have one more last block of GA tickets that we're going to release.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Get your application in on the website, summit.allinpodcast.co for a GA ticket for the last block. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Well, first of all, there's a kid rock concert going on behind me. Sorry if that's distracting for you. No, no. It's going to be lit. That's all I can say. If he's introducing President Trump, it's going to be pretty baller tonight. We're taping on Thursday, obviously. This episode will probably come out tomorrow. But
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
In any event, with respect to the Sequoia thing, look, I think there's this overarching issue of the fact that VC funds are classically designed to be 10-year funds. The money is called over time, usually over the first few years. It's invested. And then you don't get liquidity. I mean, it's not like a mutual fund where you can take your money out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I was with a group of people drinking beer outside. We were on our fourth beer. And I thought it was a joke. I think the first thing I thought after I saw the video and saw that he was okay and that his ear was bleeding was, that's it, it's over. Trump's won. It was probably one of the most iconic, patriotic visuals I think any of us have seen. And here's the image Nick's pulling up. What a photo.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
You get liquidity if and when the fund gets liquidity. And these funds are meant to be long-term illiquid vehicles. So like I said, 10 years. And typically, you can get two one-year extensions to the funds. So then the question is, what do you do at year 12 if you still got positions in those funds?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Well, I think a pretty good solution is what I think Sequoia is doing here and what I've heard other people do, which is if you have a security that's not public yet but is semi-liquid because it's a very late-stage private company, then what you can do is spin those shares into an SPV or to some other vehicle. And you let new investors come in and buy those shares at some price.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And then you give the option to your old investors. Do you want to sell or do you want to roll into the new vehicle? So nobody is forced to give up their ownership position. But if they want to get liquidity and there's sufficient demand on the buy side, that you can get them that liquidity, it's a really elegant solution.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I can't say I know exactly all the details of what Sequoia is doing because they've got this two-tier fund structure that makes it a little different. But I have seen in other cases, people have distributed shares into an SPV, and then new buyers come in, participate, and then the old investors get to decide whether they roll or sell. So it's a... pretty good way of handling this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
So that's the one thing about Sequoia that's a little different is remember, it's their kind of like global mega fund that's buying the shares as opposed to an SPV. Normally what would happen in terms of figuring out the price is you'd want to use some sort of validated secondary price, but obviously it'd have to be a market clearing price where new money wants to come in at that price.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And this is a little bit different because it's their preexisting fund that's buying at that price. And so how do you sanity check the valuation? And I guess- I would just want to make sure that that valuation is the secondary. Yeah, it's like the secondary clearing price.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
This is the AP photographer. And I think it's really, it was so striking. You see this photo, which... which didn't come out right away. But some of the imagery that came out right away with him pumping his fist was like, OK, that's it. Trump's won. It's over. Second thing I thought was this could trigger a lot of violent counter reactions if Trump doesn't lead well here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Well, something that's very interesting is that J.D. Vance has been relatively positive towards Lena Kahn. He's one of Lena Kahn's few Republican fans. And the reason for that is because Lena Kahn, for all of her faults, and we've described them here, has been willing to take on big tech.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
The fact of the matter is that the top handful of tech companies, the Microsofts, the Googles, Amazon, these are big tech monopolies. There's just no way around that fact. And they do need to be closely watched and supervised and regulated with respect to their market power. And I do think they use their market power in inappropriate ways, as we've discussed on this podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I sometimes think that Lena Kahn, in her approach, has been a little bit more of a cleaver when she needed to use a scalpel. I don't think that she should stop some of these what I would call R&D acquisitions from taking place where there's no accretion of market share, but rather starts being bought because they contribute a useful piece of technology.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I don't think you want to shut down that part of the market. Lord knows we don't have enough exits as it is, like we were just talking about. So I think it would be great if we kind of massage Lena Kahn's approach a little bit, but I think that it is a good thing that she's not willing to just roll over and let the big tech companies do whatever they want.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And I think JD Vance appreciates that about her. So look, I don't think that Lena Kahn's going to be running that agency in a second Trump administration.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Well, I think it's a huge issue because the fact of the matter is you've got these tech monopolies who are using their monopolistic market power to put their thumb on the scale of our political discourse in favor of one side versus the other. So obviously, if you're on that side of the aisle, you're going to be up in arms about that. You're not going to be happy about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And I do think that given their market power, they have an obligation not to distort our democracy by artificially suppressing one side of the debate. So I think that, yes, Republicans should be up in arms about that and they should be resisting censorship. And J.D. Vance specifically mentioned censorship in his speech.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Well, I really like the part of his speech where he said that in a healthy democracy, we debate ideas, and that's good. We even have debates in the Republican Party, and that's good. The last thing we want to do is censor the marketplace of ideas. Gosh, I mean, are we going to hear anything like that from the Democrats when they do their convention?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And I think he prevented that in his statements and from the other side. Third thing I thought is it doesn't matter if Biden drops out now because it's over. Biden could stay in. He could leave. This just feels like a lot of momentum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Well, Jake, at this point, I think you were right about Biden stepping aside. I thought he was out of the woods. He did that press conference, that NATO press conference, where he did make that one mistake, that senior moment where he actually- That Trump was his VP? Yeah. Oops. But that was the kind of thing where he got his name mixed up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
But otherwise, he sort of seems to be finding his footing in terms of talking about policy. And the brush fire- was sort of put out, right? But then, for some unknown reason, he goes on and does that Lester Holt interview. I don't know why they were still letting him do interviews. He should only be reading from a teleprompter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And he mixes up, he forgets the name of his Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, and he just refers to him as the black man. The B-H-A-M.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
you're righteous and when the big money is gone and they make the call you know yeah it's done it's done isn't that amazing what we've learned about the democratic party you know like the the coup de grace was basically katzenberg going in there say yeah i can't raise any money for you and then boom he's out i am shocked that any political party would be swayed in any way by political donations enjoy the uh enjoy the rnc sacks
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And then the fourth thing I thought was this, to Chamath's point, I think we've all been around Secret Service people in our lives and in our careers and in meetings and interactions we've had. It really was amazing that the Secret Service let this happen. And if you see...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
You know, all the data and the stuff that's coming out now about how the Secret Service managed this, it seems pretty scary that this was so botched. Certainly now the dust has settled five days later, and it seems like they're back into the conversation about let's remove Biden and figure out who can run against Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Although there is conflicting polling data, which I know we're going to get to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Yeah, well, let me answer your first question first. I think this was one of those events where you'll always remember where you were. And I was just working in my office in Los Angeles. I was going to fly to the Republican Convention in Milwaukee a few hours later. And so someone texted me, the president's been shot, Trump had been shot. And my heart sank.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I immediately went online to see the video. And I think I saw in almost real time him go down. And then when he stood back up and faced the crowd and told the Secret Service, wait, wait, He didn't want to just let them kind of drag him away. He turned to face the crowd and exposed his face. Who knows if there'd been another shooter? Who knows if that shooter was really down?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
But in that moment, he wanted to let the crowd know that he was fine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Yeah, absolutely. No, I mean, I'm mocking, I'm satirizing the New York Times and Business Insider and all these publications that are giving me all this credit. Listen, the president obviously makes the decision. He solicits feedback from lots of people. I was probably one of a thousand people, or at least hundreds of people who offer my opinion. Obviously, I'm a big fan of J.D.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
You know, one other very important detail for me is that, you know, my father-in-law was actually at that rally in Butler, at Butler Farm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Yeah, he was there and he saw everything that happened. And when we saw there was a shooting there, we were trying to get a hold of him and the cell reception had been shut down and we couldn't get a hold of him for a couple hours. And obviously we found out later that he was fine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
But what he described is that when the shots rang out, the president went down, there was really a feeling of bedlam and pandemonium in the crowd. The crowd was afraid that the president had been shot. And so when he stood back up and faced the crowd and then said, fight, fight, fight, it created this huge sense of relief. It was like palpable that he was fine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And then the part that I don't think has been well reported is that the crowd started chanting USA, USA, USA. Yeah. So they responded with this unity. It's been well reported that, you know, that Trump said fight, fight, fight. But I don't think it's been well reported that the crowd started cheering USA, USA, USA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
So I think that the crowd turned from fear to unity and strength and patriotism, reflecting what they saw from the president. Yeah, it's well said. This is one of these things that's unbelievable. And the whole world, I think, has just seen how iconic it is. I saw there's a video online even, and I think kids in Uganda were actually reenacting the assassination attempt. That's how iconic it was.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Trump's like a global legend for that. And again, there's just no way to fake what he did in that moment, right? Where, again, he... I mean, the bullet missing him was either luck or hand of God or destiny, whatever you want to call it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
But him telling the Secret Service to stop, to face the crowd, to basically show that he was unharmed and that he was determined and he was defiant in the face of an assassin's bullet, that's courage that nobody can fake. And I've seen people online talk about how soldiers under fire, they've described how when they've been under fire, obviously they hit the deck, they don't
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Stand back up, you know, even soldiers don't do that. His composure is incredible. Yeah, he just rose to the occasion in just such an incredible way that I think it's inspired the whole country and the whole world. There's just no way, again, to fake something like that, even though some people...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Like Reid Hoffman's political hack was actually claiming that it was all staged, which is just unbelievably ridiculous. But yeah, so I think the rest of the rest of the world knows that he just showed unbelievable courage in that moment and rose to the occasion and I think made the entire country proud.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Vance, but I think it's just giving me way too much credit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
I think he's doing well. He was in great spirits, I think. But let's, maybe we just should get into the assassination attempt. That's really the thing to talk about here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
Well, Google had no choice but to fire these employees. They were being disruptive, and they were trespassing, and Google has a business to run. So this is what any business would do, and I don't think they deserve either credit or blame for taking the action they took. In terms of the protesters themselves, I think that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
in the fullness of time, we may come to think of them in a slightly different light. And some of this reminds me a little bit of another war, the protesters in another war, the Vietnam War, where they were very disruptive. In some cases, they trespassed. In some cases, they got arrested. They were easy to make fun of in terms of what they look like.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
They were sort of unkempt, unshaven, all the rest of that stuff. They were hippies. And at the time, people were, I'd say, very dismissive of them or actually antagonistic. They were seen as giving aid and comfort to the enemy and they were sort of demonized. But now in the fullness of time, we look back on that war and realize that they had a point. In fact, maybe they were right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
In fact, maybe their actions were justified. And I think that how we view these protesters at Google can't just be judged now. I think it's going to be judged in the fullness of time based on how we perceive this war in Gaza. And I want to make two points about why I think this war will eventually be viewed as Israel's Vietnam. The first is that in Gaza, Israel faces a
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
a guerrilla-style force, and they're in a quagmire. And if you read the latest news that's coming out of Gaza, what you'll hear is that after Israel has supposedly cleared an area like Gaza City or Khan Yunis, they then move south, Hamas has popped back up again. This whole idea that they can clear an area has been proven false. It's like playing whack-a-mole.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
They basically hit Hamas in one area, Hamas disappears down the tunnels, they come back in a different area. And this is why you're seeing a lot of articles now in Haaretz, which is an Israeli newspaper, saying the war in Gaza is already lost. You had the Wall Street Journal last week run an article saying that Israel is winning every battle but losing the war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
which is, again, shades of Vietnam here. And you got to understand, the Wall Street Journal is the most pro-Israel of all the major mainstream publications. I don't think the Wall Street Journal has ever written a truly critical article about Israel. And they describe this whack-a-mole dynamic. You also have the General Gotti Eisenkopf, who's a member of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
The war cabinet, he's a member of the sort of war government in Israel, came out and said that we can degrade Hamas in Gaza, but we cannot destroy it. And he said, anyone who's telling you that we can destroy Hamas is telling you a tall tale. And that was, I think, an appointed reference to Netanyahu's claim that they would destroy Gaza. Hamas and Gaza.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
So you've got shades of Vietnam in terms of it being this unwinnable war. I think the second aspect of a similarity to Vietnam is just the huge number of civilian casualties. You'll recall that in Vietnam, the Viet Cong tried to grab us by the belt buckle. They knew that America had superior firepower, so they tried to get in close, use ambushes, BB traps, snipers. And in response to that,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
the Americans used immense amounts of firepower and bombing to try and subdue the Vietnamese. And 3.4 million Vietnamese were killed in that war, according to Robert McNamara. The second thing that happened is the rules of engagement in Vietnam got extremely loose. You took a bunch of scared American kids, many of whom were conscripts, you dropped them in a jungle.
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Pretty much because they feared ambushes, they shot anything that moved. And then finally, I think partly to justify this, you had a a dehumanization of the Vietnamese, that they were seen as somehow kind of subhuman.
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In any event, if you watch movies about Vietnam, like Platoon, which was made by Oliver Stone, who was a GI in Vietnam, or if you watch Stanley Kubrick's masterpiece, Full Metal Jacket, which was based on books about Vietnam, you can see these dynamics in play very vividly. Now, turn to Gaza. All you got to do is look at the miles and miles of video to see. It looks like a lunar surface.
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I mean, even in the words of Joe Biden, there's been indiscriminate bombing there. In terms of the rules of engagement, the rules of engagement have gotten very loose. A week or two ago, you had the deaths of those seven aid workers from the International Kitchen Organization. And there's an article in Haaretz recently about the kill zones have been set up pretty much
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if you come within a certain invisible perimeter of Israeli troops, you can be shot. I mean, those are the rules of engagement. And this is why there were three Israeli hostages who escaped. And they were running towards Israeli troops and yelling in Hebrew, and they still got shot. And again, this goes back to the rules of engagement being very loose.
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And then the final piece of it is you do have this dehumanization going on of the Palestinians. You can see this in a lot of the videos that have been posted by IDF soldiers. So look, I think that these protesters, their actions are going to be judged in the fullness of time. I think there are actually good reasons to believe that Israel's war in Gaza, it's shades of Vietnam.
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And I think that over the long term, people may regard these protesters in a different light. Right now, they're just seeing as being disruptive and annoying and interfering. But if this war is ends up being Israel's Vietnam, which I think it's on track to be. Again, I think that people may in time give these protesters a little bit more credit.
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Well, I think Chamath brings up an interesting point about Why didn't the protesters just focus on the war itself rather than Google doing business with Israel? My interpretation of that is they're trying to create a nexus to themselves, meaning they're employees of Google. They're trying to create a reason for them to stage the sit-in at Google.
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Otherwise, you know, if they just grab picket signs and were on the street, it would just be much less newsworthy. So I think they were just trying to create something newsworthy here. And it's kind of worked in the sense that we're talking about it. Other people are talking about it. So that's my interpretation of that is they were just trying to elevate the issue in a slightly novel way.
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But look, I think that they should be willing to pay the price of getting fired or getting arrested. I mean, if you're going to engage in that kind of civil disobedience or protest, you should be willing to accept the price. And I did see some comments by the Googlers who got fired saying that they thought they were being treated unfairly by Google. I think that's the wrong attitude.
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I think the attitude is, hey, this cause is so important to me that I'm willing to accept the price of being fired. saying that you don't deserve to be fired for disrupting the workplace. That is kind of an entitled attitude. So I think they should have just said, yeah, we did this on purpose because it's a really important cause.
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I mean, this just seems like a dog bites man story. I mean, what is the novel revelation here? The person running NPR is a liberal. I mean, I'm kind of with you, but what took 25 years to resign? I mean, all you have to do is listen to NPR. It's always been liberal. OK, this is not some recent capture of an institution going so crazy viral right now.
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Well, apparently there are some quotes that this new CEO, Catherine Marple, tweeted or said that you can point to that seem kind of woke and kind of crazy woke, but they're just actually pretty standard. I just don't see the breaking news here. If they end up firing Catherine Marr, they're going to hire someone just like her. I mean, they're going to have the same views.
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Rain Man, David Sack.
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NPR has always been left of center. And the only change that's happened is that the left has now become woke. And so it's become obsessively focused with the ideas of white supremacy and white privilege. And she simply reflects that.
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I just had one thing, which is I do think that the government should not be funding this anymore. I think NPR at this point is mostly funded by private donations, but it got started with government money and the government still funds it. And given that it is this left institution at this point, And really always has been.
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There's simply no reason for the government to be funding one side of the political debate that way. So I think there is maybe an issue there in terms of reminding people that, hey, this is like government funded. Why? And there's no reason why NPR can't be funded with either private donations or private subscription.
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Look, Jake, I agree with you. They could easily sub-stack it. NPR's not going to go away. Just create subscriptions and you're fine.
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Nobody cares. The government should not be funding one-sided ideological institutions on either side of the political debate. And you're right. If this was funding going to Daily Wire or something like that, people would be up in arms. So in any event, what's good for the good is good for the gander.
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Yeah. I mean, I'm having a hard time understanding all the controversies this week. I mean, reviewers are going to review. Protesters are going to protest and NPR presidents are going to NPR. Here we go. What's going on? Everyone's just doing their job. Yeah.
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Oh, so delicious. So delicious. High IQ foods. We should create a new category. High IQ foods?
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I hadn't even heard of this reviewer. What's his name? Marquez Brownlee? Marquez Brownlee. I never heard of him.
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Yeah, look, when I was running companies, I wouldn't care about what one reviewer said. I would care about the totality of the reaction to the product, which would include customers as well as reviewers and so forth. So I don't think there's any point getting too bent out of shape about one review.
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I think what's kind of happening in terms of the reaction here is that people want to give this company mercy points for being innovative. So my guess is the product just isn't ready for prime time, but everyone wants to kind of like, they want their viewers to take it easy on them or something because they are being innovative and they're breaking new ground in this area of wearables.
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But the reality is in the real world, where you want to charge people for your product, like customers don't have mercy points. Nope.
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And it's $700. Other than that, how is the play Mrs. Lincoln?
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I'm good. Let's get started.
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Who invested in it?
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Let's go. I got s*** to do. Don't waste time with your pointless banter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's the banter, bro.
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Well, I would slightly disagree with you guys about this device. So first of all, I think that humans are becoming more and more cybernetic. We're getting more and more immersed with computing power. And I agree, it creates this anxiety and all these problems. But on the other hand, I think it's an irreversible trend. So I think that I would not bet against things that make us more cybernetic.
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I think the problem here is that this company is trying to do two difficult things. The first thing is it's trying to capture everything that's happening in the world around you to feed it into an AI model so it can make you smarter. The other thing it's trying to do is reduce your dependence on your phone by creating this new projection surface.
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And in my experience, when you try to do two hard things, you actually square the complexity and you square the difficulty as opposed to adding it. So I think of these two things, the one that sounds interesting to me is taking in all the information from the physical world and putting in an AI model that can be helpful to you. But I see no reason to replace the phone.
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I think it should just work with your phone. The problem they're going to have is that that pendant will compete with the Apple glasses and all the other wearables that are going to be created to suck in all this information, this computer vision from the world. Nonetheless, I do think that is the opportunity. It's not replacing the phone.
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It's layering a new platform on top of the phone that can kind of, you know, again, give you that Terminator mode in the real world.
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Yeah, I agree with that.
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Let me give a shout out to one of my favorite sci-fi book series. It's called Nexus by Ramez Nam. And it's kind of this like cyberpunk. futuristic series. But what he talks about is when we have this brain computer interface, you'll be able to upload your memories. And so, you know, you talk about this idea of recording your whole life through a pendant.
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Well, eventually, you'll be able to record your whole life based on just through your eyeballs. And, you know, you'd be able to upload, in theory, a first-person view of whatever conversation you've been in, you know? And so there's a certain... Look, this is pretty far off, but there is maybe a certain inevitability to that.
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And we're going to have to figure out how to deal with the privacy implications there.
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What is it? What's the plural of octopus? Is it octopi? Yeah. Aren't they like sentient creatures or something?
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Delicious. It's the IQ that makes it taste so good.
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Oh, my God. That's dark. That's dark. You're saying the IQ is like the spice?
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That's dark. I don't know.
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If you eat high IQ foods, does it make you smarter?
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Well, I think cannabis is the right analogy. I think adults should be allowed to bet on sporting events, just like they're allowed to drink or smoke pot or engage in other mild vices. Some people handle it responsibly and some don't.
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It's probably on a societal basis, it's probably not a great thing, but it's something you allow to happen because of personal freedom and hopefully people use it responsibly.
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No one bets on chess because it's so obvious who's going to win. There's a very precise rating system. Correct, yeah. So in poker, poker's very different because you can have players at the same table and you know who are the great players and who are not the great players, but still, in any given hand, the underdog can win because you can basically suck out or whatever.
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There's a significant luck component on every single hand. Over the long term, you believe that the luck kind of evens out and you reach your expected value. But on any given hand, you can believe that you're the winner. And so there's a lot of gambling in poker, even though it is a skill game. In chess, that just doesn't work. I mean, if I play...
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I'm a little better than that. I'm like, I'm probably more like 1600.
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Yeah, you could get a coach and that would definitely help. There's also these exercises you can do called puzzle rushes that teach you how to spot tactics, which is probably half the game.
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You just need to spot tactics quickly is really the key.
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I've watched a lot of chess videos on YouTube and there's a very good series by John Bartholomew called Climbing the Ratings Ladder. And for each level of ELO ratings, he has a series of videos. So like, I don't know, if you're like at 1200, there's a whole series for 1200s and he'll play a bunch of games against 1200s showing what they typically do wrong and you can learn from it.
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It's actually, it's a good series.
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Like openings is right. I haven't spent a ton of time studying them, but I'm certainly familiar with a number of the most common openings. So I guess, yes, I guess on some level I've studied them. I would say that depending on where you are in your development, that may not be the most pressing thing for you to do.
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Jake, I was on a seafood diet in Austin. If he saw food, he ate it. Old joke, but.
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I think you probably do want to just know a few basics of a few of the most common openings, but But there's probably other things for you to learn first. You don't need to memorize a bunch of complicated lines.
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No comment.
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Every mammal that wasn't buttoned down, J. Cal battered in barbecue sauce and
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No, it's the Joe Pesci voice.
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All right, that was mine. That was mine. Oh, Zach was in the fake ID business too?
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Well, this was in the days before holograms and it wasn't, it just wasn't that hard to, you know, so we just made like boards or whatever and Polaroids. So we did it for ourselves and we did it for friends. Yeah, same.
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So we have plausible. They knew. We have plausible deniability. That's right. They just wanted plausible deniability. Exactly.
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Yeah. Actually, well, it's kind of funny. Sometimes the bouncers would go, what's your name? And you'd be like, you'd be stumped because you didn't remember.
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Or they'd ask you, what was your birthday? And you don't remember what's on your ID. You don't know what's on your ID.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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This is some degenerate sh**.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Rain Man, David Sack.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Freeberg's channeling Tim Walls over there. I know.
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It was incredible. I think I probably watched this 100 times. Totally. From every angle. Every angle.
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To be more specific, you don't want it to have feet. A, it's heavy. And then B, you have to lift them up in a way that just complicates the entire refueling and cycle time process. So by catching it, you put it right back into place and just go again. Unbelievable. Unbelievable.
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So beautiful.
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My reaction was actually... I don't know, just seeing these releases now over 10 or 15 years, plus of knowing him, nothing... I guess it's not that surprising. It's weird to say. I just expect him and his teams to figure it out. They're just all so good. The thing to remember, it's not just him that's incredible, but he attracts a kind of...
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technical and operational wonder kind people for sure and that's just that's just a really special thing so i had that reaction which was i was really proud and happy for them for the team yeah for sure for the team and for him these guys are like incredibly fearless fail bigly right yeah if you're gonna fail fail bigly yeah and then the other thing that i thought was crazy was how many people were trying to dunk on him this weekend
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And that surprised me, caught me off guard, because I think if they were personalizing A lot of anxiety that they are feeling through these companies' successes, which didn't make much sense to me.
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I need it for all my kids.
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Also, I think congrats to Amid. He just got promoted.
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I think he's in charge of all manufacturing and sales in North America.
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Shout out to Amid Afshar.
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I mean, this is a $20 billion market cap business. You probably have to pay a control premium of 50%. So the question is, if you were going to spend $30 billion today in the public markets, what would you spend it on? And I think the most important lens that you have to use to answer that question is, what reinforces a moat that I have while also being inoculated from the risks of AI?
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And I cannot think of... a more fragile business model than the UI layer on top of widely available data. So the problem that Expedia has is the same that Booking and a bunch of these other folks have, which is that the principal heartbeat of the company, flight information and other things, are licensed to them by third parties. And so what they are is a UI and a front door.
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I think it's way too early in the evolution of AI to know that that's safe. And in fact, I think a more reasonable assumption is that those things are pretty fragile. And part of what may explain the doldrums of the stock is that I think people are anticipating a world where, for example, I don't know if you saw, but Perplexity launched something this week. It's just in test mode.
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They whitelisted me into it, but it's basically a checkout concept. So you tell Perplexity what you would like it to buy, and then it will go and complete the transaction for you. So in the example of flight bookings, you could go directly to United and Because A, perplexity will just show you all of the flights. They'll show you the exact prices.
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And then it'll go and execute that for you with your payment method. In a world that looks like that, where these companies have the money to pay for the data feeds, The existing v1.0 generation UIs, I think, are in trouble. So it would just be a very bad capital allocation decision. Now, that's okay to get things wrong, but not for $30 billion wrong.
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You can probably do it for a couple hundred million dollars wrong, or maybe even a billion dollars wrong, because you can absorb that as a $150 or $60 billion company. But $30 billion is too big of a price to pay for that kind of risk.
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Why don't they just buy Waymo? Why don't they just go to Google and give them $30 billion of Uber stock and just carve in Waymo? Isn't that a better idea?
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I think there's something here. We have gone through a cycle where apps and attention were highly consolidated with a few. Now the pendulum has swung the other way and apps are very narrow features that are really well described. Okay, so that's sort of where we are. That's why we have the billions and billions of apps in the App Store.
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The question is, does the pendulum swing back to these super apps? And I think the big question is not whether it swings back to the super apps, but whether there's a new substrate that puts itself between the user and all of these services so that they become data-oriented services.
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And this is where the question is, if you rely on an agent or you rely on a beefed-up version of search, whether that's ChatGPT or Gemini or whatever, Why would you care where all of this stuff was done? You're not going to care. And this is, I think, the big mistake in this thinking is that that real estate is actually much more fragile than I think we all think it is.
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And I think a much better way to think about this is in the future, none of this UI real estate is actually worth anything. The question is, do you have a data asset that's valuable or do you do a service that's viable? Because agentically, there'll be all of these unemotional bots and workflows doing this work for you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So I think Sachs is right in the sense that whether it's there or not, it won't matter. Could he run it like a private equity business where now Uber Corporation owns two services?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Sure, but you're probably just better off for these agents to go and cannibalize all of search because you'll be able to just get a data feed for what Expedia has to create Expedia for a few million dollars or tens of millions of dollars. You don't need to pay 20 or $30 billion for this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Well, they're not writing checks. So this is what I don't want to be a Debbie Downer here, but these press releases need to have an asterisk on them. So in the hierarchy of deals, right, just to unpack this for a second, there are deals where you give me X and I give you money. That's not what this is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Then if you degrade that kind of deal structure, in a lot of heavy industry, you have deals that are called take or pay, which is there is something that's working and you need to basically take this or you need to give me the monetary equivalent of what I'm selling you. That's not what this is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
What this is, is sort of this conditional obligation where the beginning of the deal starts with a very important statement, which is if it works, and if these approvals happen, and there's a whole bunch of nested ifs, then payments can happen. So while these are important deals because they show that there are potential buyers at the finish line,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
What it doesn't do is solve the two things that you need to get to the finish line, which is the actual risk capital to finish building these things and technically de-risk them, and then the regulatory approval that you need to make sure that they're allowed. So I think that these deals are good. I think it's a great signaling, but I think it's important to understand the nuances of these things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
These are not things where there's money really trading hands. And until that you see that, where irrespective of what happens, the balance sheet is investing from an Amazon or a Google, where there's corp dev folks writing $100 million or billion dollar checks into these companies, it's not yet quite there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
This is more the step before, which is sort of, can you create some marketing and some buzziness to hopefully induce somebody to then rip in billions of dollars of risk equity capital?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And we may end up being the— China is the admin NIMBY. Bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
There's a simpler solution to all of this without having to go and create these reactors, which is, I don't think that we have a very good grasp of the material science, broadly speaking. I don't think we really understand how to build next generation materials. I don't think our specialty chemicals capabilities are all that strong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
the way that they're going to be over the next five or 10 years, just with better compute. So I think that there's going to be a lot of interim steps that increase the generally available energy density without going to nuclear. I think there's going to be a lot of businesses to do that. That'll be much safer, easier to regulate, easier to test, easier to underwrite.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And I think the government will get behind those. So I'm not as negative as you are on the only solution being nuclear.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Do those deaths actually include the second and third order effects of all this radiation?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Why is it that whole region is still uninhabited then?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
These SMRs, they don't work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Just to be clear, SMRs don't work yet. We have theoretical ways in which we can profile and model that they work, but we don't have a functional one that people can look at and inspect. As part of that, we haven't been able to test how they fail. Those are also theoretical. So I think let's put SMRs off and let's just be very accurate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
We don't have a functioning working version of one because they don't work yet. Maybe they'll work in the future. Let's hope that they do. What you're talking about, Friedberg, is a step before that, which is the Gen 3 reactor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
We are at 5 cents in the generation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
We can fix that tomorrow. We already rely on a nuclear reactor that works. And to Sax's point, it just happens to be millions of miles away. So if it goes, we're all going to go anyways.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Do you have any opinion? I watched the whole interview. It was clear in the interview, he mentioned the fact that he was being waved off. And then he said it after the fact as well. That's not alleged. I think that that did happen. I would say two things. I thought that she was composed. And she maintained her cool. So I think from a stylistic perspective, I thought that she did well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
But I don't think energy is a limiting factor in our ability to innovate. I don't think it is today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It's not the limiting factor in our ability to innovate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So we just saw OpenAI launch Strawberry. Is the reason why Microsoft or Google or Meta not responded with their own version an energy problem? No. We're still rate limited by innovation and just raw intellectual horsepower and capability. Meanwhile, we are trying to solve the energy problem and people are taking different approaches. There's storage that's coming online very aggressively.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
The solar capability itself is ramping up aggressively. We're also forcing these utilities to actually be deconstructed so that there's more efficiency in the energy markets. All of this, if you unpack why it costs 20 cents a kilowatt hour, it's not because of a generation problem. It is not. It's graft, it's corruption, it's old legacy infrastructure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
All of it can be replaced in a much simpler and safer way. So I think by the time that you are rate limited by energy, You'll have a plethora of solutions. My issues with the SMRs is the ones that are promising these next-gen whiz-bang performance characteristics, they're all theoretical free-proof.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So even when you say there are SMRs working abroad, there's no next-generation reactors working abroad. They don't work. Where is an example of these modern next-generation reactors actually working?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You can call it a small modular reactor. What I'm talking about, these next-gen materials, the things that Kairos and these other guys are trying to do, where is a functioning, working version?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Got your flannel on. Do you know what a venture capitalist is, Freeberg? Oh, he's shilling Supergut.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
We'll lay copper from some country that has an SMR all the way to Washington State.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You may be able to put her into the United States, but we won't know until we know it works. Hmm. I'm sorry. I keep going back to this tricky little issue of it doesn't work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I believe those things, if we can spin those up right now, these Gen 2, Gen 3 reactors, do them all day long. I think that they're very safe. They're very reliable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
From a substance perspective, it was pretty lacking. Because if you actually listened to the answers, there was just a ton of non-answers. And they were two very basic questions that I think a lot of people, even if you're not a swing voter, I think would probably want to know the answer to. Meaning, Did she have any regrets about what's happened in the last three and a half years?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I can't wait for you guys to lay millions of miles of copper cabling now as a solution to truck all this energy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Genius. You need me to lay pipe, I'll do it, Chamath. Genius.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Did she have any regrets about what she's done on the border? Has she not noticed that Biden was wavering before he was hot swapped? I think that you could have predicted that these questions were going to come. So I think I was surprised that there wasn't a crisp answer that they had practiced for that. The second thing I'll say is then David is right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Do you think they're going to be pro or con SMRs? Exactly, yeah. No, I'm serious. Do you think they're going to be con for sure?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You keep saying it. It's not clear you would be invited. Yeah, exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It's in two weeks and three days, four days.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Everybody then gets very tribal in how they interpret it. I think I saw one tweet from Elon about how all of the newspapers characterized her interview with Brett Baier as quote unquote testy. And it was sort of like that was the way that the mainstream media framed it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I suspect if somebody looked at how Trump's interview with Bloomberg was analyzed, it probably had some similar verbiage that was repeated there as well. So I think you are right, Jason, that the mainstream media can't be trusted to tell the truth. I would just encourage people to watch it. I think, like I said, stylistically, I think she did well and remained composed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Substantively, I think it was non-existent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Rain Man, David Sasson.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I would just like to take a step back and say that that was one of the most incredible answers I've ever heard, Freeberg. Unfortunately, it may not land for the reductive masses, but it was exceptionally powerful and thoughtful. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Well, I think you're assuming there that the long-term business model of OpenAI is in B2C subscriptions. And I think that's probably the least attractive business model they have available to them. It's sort of the first one and the most obvious one because they put out ChatGPT and then it's pretty easy just to roll out a premium version.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
But in my experience, B2C subscriptions, it's just not a very attractive business model because consumers just aren't willing to pay a lot and they have high churn rates. And there's no possibility of expansion, really. So I suspect they're going to move in more of a B2B direction over time because that's where the real money is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And probably the way they do that is by monetizing all the apps that are built on top of it. And I think that in that sense, GPT-4.0 is a really important innovation. By the way, the O stands for Omni, which I think stands for Omnichannel. I think you may have said Omnivore, which is kind of funny too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
That's right. So there's three big innovations with this model, right? So one is Omni-channel, which means text, audio, video, and images. Second, it's more conversational, like it understands the tone of people talking and understands sort of sentiment in a way it didn't before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And then the third thing, which is really important, is that it's just much faster and more performant than the previous version, GPT-4 Turbo. In the speed test, they say it's twice as fast. We've played with it at Glue. We can talk about that in a minute. And it feels 10 times as fast. It is much faster.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
But it's the combination of all three of these things that really makes some magical experiences possible. Because when you increase the speed of processing, you can now actually have conversations with it in a much more natural way. Before... The models were just too slow, so there'd be a long delay after every prompt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So now, like you showed, it can do things like you point the camera at a blackboard or something with math equations on it, and it can walk you through how to solve that problem. Or two people can be talking and it does real-time translation. There's that old saying that every Star Trek technology eventually becomes true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
They've just basically invented the whole natural language, real-time universal translator. Yeah. So anyway, so those are some interesting use cases. But I just think they're going to be able to unleash a whole lot of new applications. And if they're metering the usage of the models and providing the best dev tools, I think there is a business model there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
That was good. Just one point on that is there are a whole bunch of startups out there that were creating virtual customer support agents. And they've been spending the last couple of years working on trying to make those... agents more conversational, quicker, more responsive, I think their product roadmaps just became obsolete.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Now, that's not to say there isn't more work for them to do in workflow in terms of integrating the AI with customer support tools and doing that last mile of customizing the model for the vertical specific problems of customer support. But my guess is that Hundreds of millions of dollars of R&D just went out the window.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And probably this is the best time to be creating a customer support agent company. If you're doing it two years ago, five years ago, your work has just been obsoleted.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
If you're an app developer, the key thing to understand is where does model innovation end and your innovation begin? Because if you get that wrong, you'll end up doing a bunch of stuff that the model will just obsolete in a few months.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
We want you to wet your beak.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Yeah, well, it's a good point. I mean, I think where the AI ends, we want to use the most powerful AI models possible, and we want to focus on enterprise chat. So you could think of us as, for sure, a Slack killer or Slack competitor. It says that Slack wasn't built for the AI era. Glue is AI native. What does that mean? No channels. You know, I showed this to Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
The first thing he said is, you had me at no channels, right? People are so sick of channels, you have to keep up with all these hundreds and hundreds of channels. And the real problem with channels is there's one thread in a channel that you want to see. In order to see it, you have to join the whole channel, and now you're getting all this noise. People just want the threads.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So if you look at what's the chat model inside of ChatGPT, it's just threads, right? You... create a topic-based thread in ChatGPT. The AI comes up with a name for it, puts it in the sidebar. And then if you want to talk about something else, you create a new chat. That's exactly the way that Glue works. It's just multiplayer. You just put the groups and individuals you want on the thread.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Let me just show you real quick. Here's my Glue here. And you can see that in the sidebar, I've got all the threads that I've been involved in. And like I said, you can address them to multiple people or groups. And then you've got the chat here. Now, we've also fully integrated AI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And so Nick, who's our producer, just in this thread said, at Glue AI, what countries does SACS talk about most in episodes? Episodes is a group we created to be the repository of all of the transcripts of our episodes. And so Lou did a search and it said David Sachs frequently discusses Ukraine. What? The most. Yeah. Really?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So then Nick said, be more specific about Sachs stance on Ukraine-Russia war. Oh, boy. And it's going to overload the server. Well, it said here, David Sachs has articulated a nuanced and critical perspective on the Ukraine-Russia war across various episodes of the All In pod. Here are some key points encapsulating his stance. And it, like, nailed it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It talked about prevention through diplomacy, opposition to NATO expansion, humanitarian concerns, skepticism of military intervention, peace deal proposal. You know, I'll copy and paste this onto Twitter X later today. But the point is, it, like, nailed it across all these different episodes. And then, this is a feature of GLOOW, It provided sources.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So it cites where it got all the information from. So imagine, you know, we're doing this for the all-in pod, but you could imagine that instead of it being transcripts of a podcast, it could be your work documents. You now have in your main chat the ability just to ask, hey, at Glue.ai,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Remind me where we left that project or tell me who the expert is on this subject matter or who's contributed the most to this project. I've actually figured out using Glue AI who's contributed the most deal flow at Kraft. It's pretty amazing. Now, let me show you like some of the bonuses. What's the answer? I'm not going to say here. I think it's Brian.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
We'll call it Kraft. All right, look, let me show you a couple.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Wait, what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Okay. So we talked about how ChatGPT 4.0 understands sentiment in conversations, and I think this is a really good example. So Evan, who's my co-founder at Glue, was just testing this for us, and he asked, what is each bestie's personality type based on conversations and episodes? First of all, it figured out who the besties are. We didn't program that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It just figured it out on its own, which is pretty impressive. Here's what it said about each bestie's personality. It says, Jason Calacanis, role, the moderator and entertainer, personality traits, charismatic, humorous, lively, and the glue of the group.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Often prays for his ability to make the podcast entertaining and keep the conversation flowing. Jason's energy and ability to bring humor into discussions are key elements that define his role in the podcast. Comments he's acknowledged for his role in bringing the group together. Chamath Palihapitiya, the visionary and hustler. Personality traits, insightful, driven, persistent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Chamath's relentless drive and ability to hustle are admired by his peers, making him a core part of the podcast and intellectual discussions. I'll skip me, but does Freeberg, the pragmatic scientist and realist. Pragmatic, methodical, and a bit reserved. Oh. Freeberg's often the voice of reason, bringing a scientific and realistic perspective to the discussion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Well, listen, I want to wish Phil Helmuth a happy birthday because I did miss his 60th party. Yeah, it's coming up, actually.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
He focuses on analysis, logical reasoning. And then it cites where it got this from. And it says here, overall, the dynamic between the four besties creates a well-rounded and engaging podcast with each member bringing their unique strengths and personality traits to the table. I think that's pretty incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Yeah, so what we're doing here is we're wrapping ChatGPT 4.0 with... glue features that we've implemented to get the most out of the conversation there's things we have to do to scope the the prompt and then we're using a retrieval augmented generation service called raggy which does rag as a service that basically slurps in our transcripts and makes them accessible to the ai
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So that's basically the stack that we're using. But as the models get better and better, glue just gets better and better. Again, we just want to ride the wave.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
We just do it all in Glue. But we do it all in Glue, so it's already right there. But you're right. So the first thing that Glue AI has access to is all of your chat history, which is amazing because you get like... Then we can look at all your attachments. And we've got, I think, six integrations at launch. There'll be more. So yeah, all of your enterprise data will be there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
In the short term, you're right. You have to summon the repository by app mentioning because the AI needs a little bit of help of where to look. But in the future, it's going to figure it out on its own. So it's just going to become more and more seamless. But it'll insert itself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Well, that's where I want to go with it is I call that promptless. which is I want the AI just to chime in when it determines that it has relevant information and can help the team, even if it hasn't been summoned yet. But we need some model improvement for that, frankly. I mean, we'll be able to get there by GPT-5, but that's totally where this is headed. I'll show you just one more fun example.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
i could let me just show you this so i asked it to to write a letter to lena khan to be a guest at the all-in summit and i told it mention positive things we've said about lena khan in episodes of the all-in pod and so it wrote this letter dear chair khan we hope this message finds you well on behalf of the host the all-in pod we're excited an invitation for you to speak
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
at the upcoming All In Summit. And then it says, in our conversations, we have frequently highlighted your impressive credentials and the impactful work you've undertaken. For example, in episode 36, we acknowledge your trailblazing role. And so the letter was able to quote episodes of the All In pod Just without anyone having to go do that research and figure out what would be the best.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Because I told it, only say positive things. Don't say anything negative. And then it said, warm regards. And it said who the four besties were. Again, we never told it who the besties are. We just said, write us a letter. So it's pretty incredible. Now, this is an example with the all-in pod. Think about any work context where the AI has access to your previous work documents.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's pretty amazing what it can do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's an all-in exclusive today on the program.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's the weirdest thing. Yeah, you're right. Everyone's got their own little technique about how they bend the card. It's all destroyed by the end of the deck. They get thrown up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Freework, can I ask you a question? Does that mean that the boosted one has twice the number of chromosomes as A and B? Exactly right. So is that like a new species then? How does it survive with twice the number of chromosomes?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And so- So this could only happen for a plant, right? This could never happen with an animal?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
How big are those potatoes?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It started as like a little creamer potato, basically, and you blew it up into a russet potato?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So why not just grow russet potatoes then?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I think genetics is interesting. But so have you tried these potatoes? Do they taste different?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
You haven't sprouted any horns yet or anything like that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's a high card. It's even worse than that. You're basically sitting down at the casino's table and then they tell you whether you've won or lost. And in order to convince yourself that that's not what's going on, you have to play with the card. But really, they just tell you you either win or lose. Let me tell you a story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I'm glad we're doing him second because all of a sudden, like, group chat doesn't seem very important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
He solved the world food problem. Yeah, Saks. What did you do for the last six months? Yeah, we made our price chat a little better, but...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Let me just make sure this is clear. So that last photo you showed with the different types of potatoes, you had created the super huge ones, but you're saying that The yield benefit here is just you create a much bigger, hardier plant that's capable of producing more potatoes. But the size of the potatoes doesn't change?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Okay, because your goal is not to turn like a russet potato into like a watermelon or something like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
You're in. It may not be a 10 cap though, but yes. You're in.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
We're each doing the things we do best. Freeburg is solving the world's hunger problem. And I'm cleaning up your slack. Making your enterprise chat a little better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Probably not. I mean, not until we're forced to. But what Millais did, he comes in and they've got a huge budget deficit and they've got runaway inflation and they're debasing their currency. And just practically overnight, he just slashes government spending to the point where he has a government surplus.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And then as soon as he gets credibility with the markets, that allows him to reduce interest rates, inflation goes away, and people start investing in the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's obvious. Listen, I mean, you can't run... deficits forever. You can't accumulate debt forever. It's just like a household. If your spending exceeds your income, eventually you got to pay it back or you go broke. And the only reason we haven't gone broke or experienced hyperinflation is because we're the world's reserve currency. So there's just a lot of room for debasement.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And there's not a ready alternative yet. I mean, everyone's trying to figure out what the alternative will be. So we've been able to accumulate more and more debt, but it's reaching a point where it's unsustainable. And what we've already seen is that the feds had to jack up interest rates from very low, practically nothing, to 5.5%. And that has a real cost on people's well-being.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Because now, your cost of getting a mortgage goes way up. I mean, mortgage rates are over, what, 7.5% now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Right. And so, it's much harder to get a mortgage now. It's harder to make a car payment if you need to borrow to buy a car. And if you have personal debt, the interest rate's going to be higher. The inflation rate actually doesn't take into account any of those things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Remember, Larry Summers did that study where he said the real inflation rate would be 18% or would have peaked at 18% if you included cost of borrowing. That's why people don't feel as well off as the unemployment rate would normally suggest. So people are hit really hard when interest rates go up in terms of big purchases they need to make with debt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And then, of course, it's really bad for the investment environment because when interest rates are really high, that creates a higher hurdle rate and people don't want to invest in risk assets. And so eventually the pace of innovation will go down. And Druckenmiller made this point in his next set of comments. He said that Treasury is still acting like we're in a depression.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's interesting because I've studied the depression. You had a private sector crippled with debt, basically with no new ideas. So interventionist policies were called for and were effective. He said the private sector could not be more different today than it was in the Great Depression. The balance sheets are fine, they're healthy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And have you ever seen more innovation ideas that the private sector could take advantage of, like blockchain, like AI? He says all the government needs to do is get out of the way and let them innovate. Instead, they've spent and spent and spent. And my new fear now is that spending...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And the resulting interest rates on the debt that's been created are going to crowd out some of the innovation that otherwise would have taken place. I completely endorse Drucker Miller's view of binomics. And actually, I mean, this is what I said way back in 2021.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Druckenmiller used the word Bidenomics and said, I give these guys an F because they're still printing money and spending money like we're in a depression, even though we're in a rip-roaring economy. And when they started doing this back in 2021, I tweeted Bidenomics equals pumping trillions of dollars of stimulus into a rip-roaring economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I'm not going to pretend like I know what's going to happen next, but I've never tried this before. What happened next was a lot of inflation, and that jacked up interest rates. According to even Keynesian economics, the reason why you have deficit spending is because you're in a recession or depression, and so use the government to stimulate and balance things out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Good. Good. Yeah. Good week. Lots going on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
You don't do deficit spending when the economy's already doing well. So this spending, there's no reason for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
All of those things get you votes. Before we move on from this, look, what we have coming out of Washington here is a contradictory and therefore self-defeating policy. You've got the Fed jacking up rates to control inflation. You move across town and you've got Capitol Hill and the White House spending like there's no tomorrow, which is inflationary. Right. Why would you do both those things?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Choose what your policy is going to be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No, the problem is you knew too much about journalism. You knew too much about the space they were trying to disrupt, and that could be a mistake. We did PayPal. None of us knew anything about payments. That was one of the reasons we were successful. All the payments experts told us it couldn't be done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Can you imagine how long it would have taken John to write a letter to Lina Khan? Like if we said, John, invite Lina Khan, but be sure to reference all the nice things we said about her on episodes of the pod.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's got to go find the episodes, listen to them. Yeah, listen to them to figure out what the best quotes are.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Well, look, this is the same conversation we've had two or three times where we're going to need the courts to figure out what fair use is. And depending on what they come up with, it may be the case that Google has to cut them in by doing licensing deals. We don't know the answer to that yet. By the way, I do know a founder who is already...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Skating to where the puck is going and creating a rights marketplace so that content owners can license their AI rights to whoever wants to use them. I think that could be very interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So I don't want to say who it is because I'm going to let him announce his own round, but I'm only participating in the seed round. Look, stepping back here, it's interesting. If you go back to the very beginning of Google, the OG Google search bar had two buttons on it, right? Search and I feel lucky. I feel lucky was just tell me the answer. Just take me to the best result.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And no one ever did that because it kind of sucked. Then they started inching towards with OneBox, but you didn't get the OneBox very often. It's very clear now that Gemini-powered OneBox is the future of Google Search. People just want the answer. I think that this feature is going to eat the rest of Google Search. Now, it's a little bit unclear what the financial impact of that will be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I think like you guys are saying, there'll probably be more searches because search gets more useful. There's fewer links to click on, but maybe they'll get compensated through those relevant ads. Hard to say. You're probably right that Google ultimately benefits here. But let's not pretend this was a deliberate strategy on their point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
They got dragged kicking and screaming into this by innovation and perplexity in other companies. They had no idea. They got caught completely flat-footed, and they've now, I guess, caught up by copying perplexity. And sucks for perplexity. I think they're kind of screwed now unless they get an acquisition deal. But perplexity came up with the idea of having citations
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Having a comprehensive search result, yeah, which was something... Search result with citations and related questions. And they did it extremely well. And quite frankly, all Google had to do was copy them. Now they've done that. And I think it does look like a killer product.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
One thing I would say about big companies like Google or Microsoft is that the power of your monopoly determines how many mistakes you get to make. So think about Microsoft completely missed iPhone. Remember, and they like they screwed up the whole smartphone, mobile phone era. And it didn't matter. Didn't matter. Satya comes in, blows this thing up to a $3 trillion public company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Same thing here with Google. They completely screwed up AI. They invented the transformer, completely missed LLMs. Then they had that fiasco where they had- Black George Washington. Black George Washington. Doesn't matter. They can make 10 mistakes, but their monopoly is so strong that they can finally get it right by copying the innovator.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And they're probably going to become a $5 trillion company now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I think if we had just gotten Sam on the day after the launch of GPT-4 Omni, as opposed to, what is it, three days before, he could have talked much more freely about it and it would have been interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Yeah, but I say if you're a startup and you make big failures, you usually just go out of business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Right. Remember this boombox? This is one of the huge differences between startups and big companies is that big companies can afford to have a portfolio of products. They have a portfolio of bets. Some of them will work and that keeps the company going. Startup really has to go all in on their best idea. Totally. I always tell founders, just go all in on your best idea.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
They're always asking me for permission to pivot. And I always tell them, go for the best idea. Don't hedge. Don't try to do five things at once. Just go all in on your best idea.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No, it's Memorial Day. Memorial Day. Memorial Day, the button can come down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
We'll let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
We need to get merchies already.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Well, now the rest of us look like s***.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I've never done that before. Sax, in your desk, in your desk is a piece of paper with your children's names and their birthdays. You want to pull it out and see? I got three birthdays a year and I've never done one. Let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I think what that means is that if the guest doesn't want to talk about something, we're not going to start peppering him with gotcha questions and things like that. I appeared at a conference a couple of days ago to promote glue, which we'll get to. And the first half of the conversation was like a normal conversation about what we were launching.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And then the second half was basically the reporter peppering me with fastball questions, which is fine. I knew what I was signing up for. It's a totally different style. It's a totally different style than coming on the pod and just having a normal conversation. But it's not really our job to make somebody open up if they don't want to talk.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No, I mean, it's not worth really getting into. You can watch it. Yeah, I was just curious. Look, I kind of like sometimes when reporters pitch me fastballs because, yeah, you can strike out or you can hit it out of the park when they do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
How much is that worth? Because maybe that does make Android a viable business on its own.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Okay, great. So let's do it. I take back what I said. It can't survive as an independent business. Chrome can't, right? Chrome can't. But maybe Android and Chrome go together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
It was a touch of inflation with a hint of unemployment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
If you break Google up from a conglomerate of, let's call it, four monopolies or duopolies or companies with extraordinary market power into four separate companies, they're still going to be generating extraordinary profits. And those could still be invested in a Waymo. So I don't know that it stops the innovation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Our workshopping this issue has pretty much convinced me that it should be four companies. Search, advertising, YouTube, and Android. Because I think Android could be a standalone business because of the value of the
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Well, it's where PayPal got its first funding round, where John Malloy from Nokia Ventures beamed the money to Peter and Max at Bucks. On a Palm Pilot. On a Palm Pilot, way back in 1999.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Did you say that Brian Nichol focuses on every nickel? Was that... He did say that. I didn't want to say it. He did say it. He did say, don't interrupt him. He doesn't like to be interrupted. No, no, it's good. Okay, sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Yeah, I would just add something here, which is I do think that macroeconomic forces played a huge role here. We've seen that we have had a tremendous amount of inflation over the last few years, and Starbucks has gotten more expensive. And if you're a worker whose wages have not kept up with inflation, do you really want to spend $10, $15 on a cup of coffee?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Good, good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I mean, it's a pretty fancy cup of coffee. I'm not saying it's not. But when you could just go to your commissary at work and pour yourself a cup of coffee for free... Do you really want to work roughly an hour every day to pay for your coffee fix? And I think more and more consumers are just saying that this is a luxury good. I'm looking at cut costs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
When I go to the grocery store and buy groceries, they're 30% more expensive than they were a few years ago. I got to cut somewhere. And a luxury cup of coffee just seems like a really easy place to cut. So I think that's a huge part of this. And I don't know how Brian Nichols is going to fix that. It's a macroeconomic force.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Could Starbucks introduce a line of low-calorie drinks that use sugar substitutes to achieve the same flavor?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
They come to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Can you show the Starbucks clip? Well, that's self-evidently true. I mean, he's basically making a point similar to what I said about Google's so large that employees can hide. and not do very much, and they can kind of coast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Well, it could be a genuflect. I don't know. Look, I would say that there are a lot of Americans who do feel that way about work, but I think it's not appropriate in two cases. Number one is if you're ambitious and you really want to rise in your organization, then you got to have more of the J-Cal attitude, which is I'm going to be the first to work and the last one to leave.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And I'm going to show my boss, I'm going to get promoted. So if you want to be ambitious in your career, that's not a good attitude to have. And then on the other extreme, if you're the CEO of the company, your attitude has got to be I'm 24 seven with this shit. You know, it's like I'm always online. I'm always reachable. The buck stops with me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Now, obviously, you're going to cut out time to be protected that you can spend with your family. But your attitude's always got to be that I'm available. You know, I don't turn off my phone. I don't do any of that stuff. I just think that if you're running an organization, you can't take this attitude that, oh, at 6 p.m., I'm switched off. You know, it just doesn't work that way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Yeah, especially if you're running one of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I mean, if you're... I just don't think it's an appropriate thing for someone like that to say when he's the CEO of a multinational corporation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
It's much more productive because I think innovation happens as a team. You need collaboration, and it's way easier to do that when everyone is together in the same place. There's more room for spontaneity, more spontaneous interactions. The reason why Steve Jobs designed the spaceship campus in that famous circle was because it maximized the opportunity for serendipity, right? Like there's no...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Yeah. And look, I just want to underscore this point. I think there's nothing wrong if somebody says, look, my family is the most important thing in my life. I only want to work 40 hours a week. I'm going to do a nine to six job with an hour lunch break. That's 40 hours. Don't call me after 6 p.m.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
You can design your career that way, but that is not a career that's going to enable you to either run a company as a CEO or be a founder of a startup or be on a track to one day being a founder or a CEO. It's just not compatible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Right, exactly. So you have to decide what track you're going to be on. And I think there's a lot of millennial Gen Z types who are confused about this. And they have the entitlement of saying, well, I want to just do the 40 hour a week thing. But then I also expect to rise rapidly and be an executive and be a founder or be a CEO one day. And that's not going to work. Yeah, it's not going to work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Yeah, so this story was reported by The Washington Post and by Bloomberg and others. So it appears to be more than just a rumor or conjecture. I mean, these are publications that are apparently well-sourced within the Harris campaign. So I think it is fair game for us to comment on this policy proposal that she apparently will be coming out with. Look, I think Freeberg is right about the policy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
The idea of price controls is widely discredited across the political spectrum. I mean, I think virtually all economists agree on this. This was pride extensively in the 1970s, not just under Jimmy Carter, but Nixon tried wage and price controls and Gerald Ford had this whole program called Whip Inflation Now, where they put out these buttons called these wind buttons. And then Carter extended it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
That's why we had huge lines to the gas pumps is because we had price controls on gas. And those lines of the pump went away almost overnight when Ronald Reagan came in and removed the price caps on gas. So we've tried price controls before. It didn't work. And it is remarkable that...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
She would be proposing here potentially as her first major policy proposal on the economy to go back to this 1970s era failed policy. And I think it's really tipping her hand in terms of where her economic proposals are going to come from and what she really thinks. Keep in mind that...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Throughout the Biden presidency, he rhetorically would blame corporate greed for the rise in inflation we saw as like a scapegoat because he didn't want to blame himself for all the spending. But she's going further now and actually instituting this as policy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Well, there was a really interesting story in the Wall Street Journal this week called Kamala Harris's Economic Team and Agenda Start to Take Shape. And it was interesting because it said here in the first paragraph that the challenge of her economics team is, quote, "...differentiating the candidate, which is Harris, from her unpopular boss, which is Biden, without abandoning his policies."
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And the problem that they have is that for the last three and a half years, there has been no daylight between Harris and Biden. And in fact, Corinne Jean-Pierre said exactly that in the article. There's been no daylight. They've been highly aligned.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Now, in response to that, what the campaign has been trying to do is, A, not say anything about policy, just try to redefine the candidate based on biography. She's done no interviews with the media. She's done no sort of unscripted speaking appearances. And the media has cooperated with this so far.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
The most egregious example was that Time Magazine cover story, which was this really gauzy profile that was hagiography, even though she refused to even do an interview with Time Magazine in that story. So strategy number one has been just to kind of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
hide from the media in terms of what she would really do strategy number two was adopting some of donald trump's most popular policies so she just announced no tax on tips she was i think widely kind of criticized for being a copycat on that and now we finally have strategy number three which is to tiptoe into the campaign with her own original proposal on price controls which i think is being roundly criticized but it shows
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
where her policy instincts are coming from. I mean, this is somebody who has always been on the progressive left. When she was a member of the Senate, GovTrack rated her as the most liberal member of the Senate, even to the left of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. And you're now seeing this come out in her policy proposals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
So look, I think she's definitely gotten a bounce in the polls over the last few weeks because of this favorable media coverage, but it's a sugar high based on something that's not substantive. I mean, she didn't put forward any proposals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And I think that now that she finally is putting out policy proposals that can be questioned and analyzed and criticized, I think this is going to be the beginning of, I would say, a big correction in her campaign.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
But you just said she's a socialist, not a moderate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I think Trump is a moderate in this race. Yeah. She's much more moderate than she is. I think that actually is true. Look, I think that she's pretending to be a lot of things. She's pretending to be a moderate when really she was the most liberal member of the Senate. She's pretending to be a change agent when really she's the incumbent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Keep in mind that she has been in office now for three and a half years as part of the Biden-Harris administration. And she was perceived within that administration as their emissary to the left wing of the party. I mean, remember that when she was put on the ticket, Biden was perceived as the moderate and she was perceived as the person on the left.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And she was going to basically help consolidate those votes. So she's pretending to be a lot of things that she isn't. And the reason why it's working is because the press is fully cooperated in letting her run a campaign without doing press interviews, without doing unscripted appearances. And the press, frankly, is embarrassing itself by revealing themselves to be effectively DNC operatives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And that Time magazine cover story was just the latest example of that. I do think that this strategy can only work for so long. I think that the media is starting to feel a little bit embarrassed. They're starting to get a little bit shamed about the fact they're letting her – Just give them the Heisman. And I don't think she can run out the clock for three months without doing interviews.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I just think that I think she can do this for another week or so. I think that they're going to run this playbook through the convention. But eventually she's going to have to start doing interviews and she's going to have to start putting out more. substantive policy proposals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And I think the fact that this price control proposal is their very first one that they've put out, I think this shows that this is not going to be easy for her.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Yeah, I mean, this idea that she can pretend to be a moderate and just run on vibes with no interviews and no substantive proposals, I don't think it's going to work for three months. I think she's going to reveal herself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Yeah, I mean, look, if we're talking about capitalism, I think about what the Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter said, which is capitalism is a process of creative destruction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And the creativity happens in the early days when you've got a founder who's creating a startup and the business gets big, but then it gets older and the founder goes away and the company can drift and become bureaucratic. And sometimes it can renew itself. And maybe you get a Brian Nicklin maybe to save it. And sometimes it doesn't.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And the companies that get old and don't renew themselves eventually fade away, and they get destroyed and replaced by other startups. It's a system that has worked incredibly well in America, and that's the basis for all of our prosperity and innovation. When you compare that to the political process, it's very different.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I mean, the political process kind of has this knee-jerk resistance to change and innovation, and it has an impulse to control things. It wants to control prices. It thinks it can solve problems with just top-down mandates, and it doesn't reform itself. It creates new bureaucracies and never gets rid of them. I mean, we create new departments. They never go away.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
They just keep getting bigger and bigger. There's never any creative destruction. It's just like a blob. It's a one-way ratchet of bureaucratic growth. So it's really clear what creates prosperity. And I do think we have now reached a point where the government has gotten so big and so out of control and so expensive that it actually is threatening this engine of creative destruction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And at some point, I think voters are going to have to make a choice about whether they're going to try and rein in the government and create more room for capitalism and innovation, or they're going to allow it to get overtaken.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
By the way, I mean, That invasion of Russia that you're talking about is not what you think it is. Here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I think you're falling for a lot of hype. I mean, what's happening is that the stage of the war is that the fighting is in the Donbass and along a 1,200-kilometer front in Ukraine, where the Russians have just been pounding the Ukrainians. The Russians have more soldiers, they have more artillery, they have more air power, and they have...
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Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
air superiority, and they've just been annihilating the Ukrainians. I mean, Ukrainian casualties, according to some sources, are somewhere between 30,000 and 60,000 a month. It's massive and unsustainable. So what Zelensky did is he basically threw this Hail Mary, where he took some of their best forces, their best reserves, and had them attack this undefended part of Russia, Kursk,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And yeah, they took a few hundred miles of undefended territory, but there's nothing strategically important there. And now Russian air power is basically creating significant casualties among those forces, and the Ukrainian forces are now trying to figure out what to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I mean, they're basically running around this part of Russia like headless chickens, trying to figure out where they can dig in and find some defensive fortifications. I don't know what Zelensky's trying to accomplish. I guess it's kind of a PR offensive. A lot of people have been fooled into thinking that this is somehow a game changer in the war. It's not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
All Zelensky has really done is take some of his best troops away from where the strategically important fighting is, have them attack this part of Russia, and over time, Russia's just going to mop them up. Did the Russians get caught with their pants down? Yeah, I guess they did. Is that an embarrassment to Putin? I guess it can be spun that way. Does it change the outcome of this war in any way?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
No, it's not. And what we're on track for is at some point, probably next year, Ukraine is going to collapse. I mean, their position in this war is unsustainable. And taking some of their top troops, feeding them into Kursk, where they can be easily picked off by the Russians, is only going to accelerate that process.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Well, the Nord Stream story is very strange because we're on our third or fourth explanation here of what happened. I mean, it was pretty clear that somehow the U.S. was behind it. And they've been blaming, you know, first they said that the Russians did it, right, which makes no sense. That'd be like the Russians shooting their own legs off. That was the first cover story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Then they kind of went with, I guess, illusioning he did it from a yacht. I guess that's the story they're on now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Well, no. So this report about that yacht being used and how Zaluzhny was like the mastermind of this. Yeah. This report is not anything new. This has been out for, I don't know, at least six months. I've always been skeptical about this. The thing to understand about the North Stream Pipeline is that it was a massive structure surrounded by huge amounts of concrete on the ocean floor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And blowing this thing up required... some significant expertise in underwater demolition. I'm just very skeptical that it could be accomplished by six guys on a yacht under Zelushny. I mean, the Ukrainians have never had a Navy. This just doesn't seem like something that's in their wheelhouse of capabilities. It always made more sense to me that the U.S. was involved somehow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I think intelligence sources want it to happen. I mean, they have to get their sources from somewhere, right? And I'm just saying that this story about delusion in the yacht has, this is not new. This has been out there for many months. Look, I mean, it could be true. I mean, I guess I don't know for sure, but I guess I'm also just saying that I'm a little bit skeptical about this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I mean, Seymour Hersh had other reporting from different sources who claimed that the U.S. was behind it. And President Biden himself at a press conference said, that if Russia invades Ukraine, we will bring an end to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. And when a reporter asked him, how will you do that? He said, we have ways, we'll get it done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And similarly, Victoria Nuland warned at a press conference that Nord Stream 2 will not move forward if Russia invades. And then lo and behold, the pipeline gets blown up. And if you're comparing which of these two forces has the capability to do something like this, I know for sure that the U.S. does. Ukraine, I'm just a little more skeptical of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
What about the explosives?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I don't think you're in a position to know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
You're also an explosive expert as well as a professional diver.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
That's why Russia can't beat them. I've also read the Seymour Hersh story, and it just makes a lot more sense to me. That's all I'm going to say is it just makes a lot more sense to me. And by the way, I've never taken away anything from the Ukrainians as a fighting force. I mean, clearly they are fighting bravely and they are hardcore. I've never taken that away from them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And I'm certainly not saying that they're incompetent or anything like that. And they've definitely been massively plussed up by American weapons.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I would like to see America stay out of other people's wars, and I would have liked to have seen them agree to a peace deal that would have avoided this war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
It's not my war. I don't think America should take sides in other people's wars. I think we should stay out of them, and I think we should agree to peace deals when we can and not sabotage those peace deals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I agree with Chamath that Google has the opportunity to do something really interesting here, which is get ahead of the curve and break itself up before the political system forces that onto it. And the advantage of doing that is that it could partition the company in ways that are economically smart. The big categories would be search, advertising, and YouTube.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
And I think that would have two big economic benefits for shareholders. One is you unlock value by deconglomerating, like Freeberg was saying. Second, once you break up the company into these pieces, there's less places for employees who aren't doing anything to hide, you know, for all this bureaucracy to hide. I mean, look, Google is famous for employees who don't do anything, right?
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Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
The guys sitting on the roof, setting themselves all day. If you break up the company into three or four smaller companies, right, there's just way less room for people to hide. And I think that they could all be leaner, more efficient operations, and that would accrue to the benefit of shareholders. So I think that would make a lot of sense. And then furthermore,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I guess a third point is that you forestall the possibility of the government doing something that could actually be very harmful. And the piece here is that I guess the DOJ is talking about spinning up Android and Chrome. And I think it's worth pointing out that those aren't really businesses in and of themselves.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
The reason why Google developed Android and Chrome was to prevent anybody from getting upstream of them, right? They saw what Microsoft did in terms of capturing the operating system and then capturing the browser, and they didn't want to potentially allow Microsoft or anyone else to essentially
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
win the high ground, capture the high ground upstream of them, and be able to divert traffic away from search to their own search engine or someone else's search engine. So they began this strategy of commoditizing those layers of the stack, and it worked brilliantly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
I mean, Android and Chrome have become very popular, and it guarantees that nobody else can get upstream of them and then disremediate them. But the problem is, if those things get spun out, and have to become businesses on their own, how would they function as businesses? It's not clear to me that there's an obvious strategy there. I would like to ask Freeberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Freeberg, do you see a way that Chrome and Android could be spun out and become viable businesses on their own? Or do you agree that they were essentially created to commoditize layers of the stack rather than become profitable businesses on their own?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
compensation is commensurate with the performance of the company.
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Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
I believe we did vote for it in 2018. But this is about long-term value creation.
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Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
No. I believe we used the information we had available and made the best choice.
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Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
That's a great question. I would go to my board. I would talk with my board.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
I know you actually created it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Thanks. Happy to be here. You know, it's great being more fit and more fashionable than Sachs is a pretty low bar. Yes. So I'm really excited and thrilled to be with you all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Here we go. I refer you to my Twitter feed, my ex-feedback.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I'll send him my wish list for you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Bart's, do they have an embassy there?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
They don't, unfortunately. It's a French protectorate, but...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
That is, you're correct, one of the sticky points, you know, because this CPI, you have to parse it like you're saying in grocery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
We can see that we are definitely in July now because we have one button to go for August. And so it's kind of like the sundial. You know, the Greeks, we created the sundial, math, plumbing, philosophy, democracy, all these great things. And the Italians, you guys created...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Yeah. That phenomenon you're talking about previously is relative deprivation, Freeberg. It's a phenomenon where you compare yourself to other people and you feel like, I'm getting screwed here. Sax, what's your take on this AI bubble? Because I've got some data I'm about to pull up on it, but let's just get there right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
How much of this boom that we're seeing in the stock market is this AI bubble?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And just to be clear, they're not just a chip. I mean, people think they're like a chip. They think something you hold in the palm of your hand. They're like a racked server that's like 50 pounds.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Well, you heard it here first on the All In pod. Here's episode 181 six weeks ago. No Shrikanis wasn't involved in this one, but here's Chamath and Freeberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And so I think inspired in part by that, David Kahn from Sequoia Capital, legendary venture firm here in Silicon Valley, published a blog titled AI $600 Billion Question. Khan said there was a $500 billion revenue hole when considering AI CapEx levels. He got this number by calculating that companies need to show around $600 billion in AI revenue to justify projected CapEx levels in Q4.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And he generously assumes Google, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Tesla, and others will generate $100 billion annually combined. That's pretty generous. And that still leaves a $500 billion hole. Here's the NVIDIA data center run rate revenue, as you can see, q4 of 2023 50 billion, and now 150 billion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And then you have the data center facilities being built and the cost to operate those implied data center AI spend, and then of course, your software margin concept, he also thinks that the GPU shortage already peaked last year, we'll get to that later. On June 25th, a couple of weeks ago, Goldman published a 31-page report called Gen AI, Too Much Spend, Too Little Benefit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So you heard it here first on the All In pod, and I think everybody's kind of catching up with this theme. Companies are going to spend $1 trillion, according to the report, on AI CapEx over the next several years. Usually that's three to five, and we use the word several. AI productivity gains are limited in the near to midterm, the next 10 years, and AI's ROI
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
is likely significantly limited due to costs. The costs of AI are so high, and the revenue potential is so unclear, there's a chance the economics never make sense. Here's a choice quote, and then I'll get the reaction from the team.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Replacing low wage jobs with tremendously costly technology is basically the polar opposite of the prior technology transitions I've witnessed in my 30 years of closely following the tech industry. And that's Goldman's head of global equity research.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's an interesting concept here, Chamath, that you're saying like, hey, making like fun images or, you know, maybe rewriting your blog post, but that's low, that's low wage work. So what are your thoughts on this report, these two reports? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
A lot of walking, a lot of walking. Let me ask you this. Have you ever had a glass of wine while working out? Has that happened? Have you ever been tempted?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's an interesting psychological phenomenon there, Friedberg, of The capital alligators, the tech industry, the entrepreneurs, they want to believe in something. And the previous paradigm shifts were ending. And here we go, a new paradigm shift. Perhaps we're such a efficient capitalistic machine now that we almost like process stuff super quickly in some ways, Freeberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
You know, we deploy massive capital. We try to solve huge problems. I mean, and then maybe we hit the reckoning and the trough of despair that we talked about, you know, many times, innovator's dilemma, you know, crossing the chasm kind of style. So what are your thoughts on Chamath's point there or any other points you might have?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Okay. Were you on the treadmill or were you doing weights? Were you on the weight bench when you said? Yeah, I was pushing weight. Okay, pushing weight. Okay. Back in 88. Okay. And getting ready, according to reports, I don't know if we can talk about this, but David Sachs is in the think tank getting ready for his RNC debut. How are you, Rain Man? Yeah, definitely, definitely giving a keynote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Zach, you want to maybe give us your thoughts here. Bubble, do we work our way out of it? Are we overspending? Or is this all manifest destiny? You know, if you build it, they will come kind of situation. We throw all this capital there. We make a lot of progress on these projects and something comes out the other end, as messy as it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Now that's consumer at $20 and enterprise at like $30 a month. And then there's also the API.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Snap upgrade.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
B plus is a strong start for you too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I got to tell you, I've been using Claude and ChatGPT 4.0 and it is extraordinary quality. how fast they fixed going to the web to get information. It used to be arduous and painful to get updated information. And so I was like, hey, get me all of these. I think I may have told this story previously here on This Week in Startups, but I was talking about like I was doing research on salaries.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And I said, just grab me all the information from Glassdoor, Indeed, high salary, low salary, average salary, these two different cities, put it in a table and give me the links. And it did it. And I was like, that's like... a college-educated person's job for $40 an hour, call it, whatever it is, a $60,000, $70,000, $80,000 a year person. So I'm in the bullish gap with you, Sax.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I think it's being overbuilt, sure. But I think we're going to see a tipping point next year where a lot of labor arbitrage occurs. And what I mean by that is people are figuring out ways to cut jobs, or have one person do three jobs. And I'm seeing it across all the startups we invest in senior with Athena, the company we invested in, I mentioned earlier,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And I'm really interested in robotics now too. I think there's going to be some incredible gains with Optimus and some of the other robots that are occurring. And those things are only going to cost 20 grand. So this is going to be pretty amazing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Great. Any theme that you're going for?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And the compliant part means you're working in the tech group or the marketing group, and you don't, you know, search the HR department's data. Yeah. Guys, let me ask you just a general question, though.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Yeah, I think they get there. I'm totally honest. No, no, no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Yeah. I mean, there's so much dry powder sitting around at these large companies. I think capital is a weapon kind of situation, but it could be a big opportunity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I mean, what are they going to do? Give a dividend? I mean, God forbid, right? Like, I mean, Facebook started giving one, Apple's giving one. So maybe, you know, I think that's how they can't do M&A because Alina Khan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's like It's like nukes. It's like nukes. You never use them. You build them out. It might be the good comparison.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So we'll keep the cards close to the chest. And from the mountains... at the beep, beep. Then he can talk about your Sultan of Science looking oddly not pale. You got a little sun there, brother. Looking good, Dave Freeburg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
To my point, it was reported earlier this week that Andreessen Horowitz, that's a very large venture capital firm here in the Bay Area, is building a 20,000 GPU cluster. We mentioned earlier, $20,000, $30,000 a GPU is what you can estimate there. So this is hundreds of millions of dollars to try to cut deals and win deals with AI startups.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And so they stole this idea from Daniel Gross, which you probably don't know who that is, but it's a company called Pioneer Labs and Nat Friedman from GitHub. They did this last year. Same exact idea. They acquired 2,500 H100s and they gave their portfolio companies access to it in something called the Andromeda Cluster. Really brilliant idea. There's the tweet from Nat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's not clear whether A16 is purchasing these or they're just going to pay for them on AWS or Google Cloud or some other provider. But if these were purchased, obviously hundreds of millions of dollars. What's your thought here? I won't go through all the details. I'll just go right to your opinion, Shamath. What's your thought on this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Well, you also have to power these. You have to put them in a data center. There's a lot of cost to these things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's also a crazy, conflicted bet too, because NVIDIA was using these chips in the same fashion. They were using allocations to get investment allocations in companies and then paying them off. So now you have Andreessen buying them from NVIDIA. It's also convoluted. Amazon was doing this as well with AWS, giving credits, et cetera. So tried and true strategy, but very strange.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I'm just saying it's weird because they're giving money to NVIDIA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
All right, gentlemen, let's get to the docket. There's a lot to talk about. Let's start with macro. We haven't talked macro. Everybody wants to talk a little macro. And I got a lot of news today. The big question is, has the soft landing been secured? Obviously, stocks are still surging records again this week, last week. All the jobs seem to have burned off and unemployment is moving up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They're going to charge back. You think they're going to charge back the startups?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I think this is brilliant for year 012, like Pioneer Labs was doing, because those people really don't have the money. If you're a viable concern, you can easily get the money to buy your own or rent your own. And we just said in the previous story that the glut and the wait is over for these. So interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I'm about to say, this is a PR marketing exercise, and it worked. Well done, Mark, because we're talking about it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I think they've gotten $100 million in marketing of it just by...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
You're using the language model API, so it's abstract. Correct. We don't need them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
As we wrap up here today, Freeberg, your thoughts. And you had mentioned in the group chat, last minute addition to the docket, you wanted to talk about the French elections. And I know Sachs was tweeting about it because all the people who hate him were sending it to me. So I always know when he tweets about something spicy. Go ahead, Freebrook, what do you got?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
That was one of Jay Powell's major efforts. And all the stimmy savings, as you pointed out, Shamrath, are long gone. And today, the big news, CPI came in at 3%. Perhaps inflation has been cracked. Here's your chart, gentlemen. Economists were expecting 3.1, so the print was meaningfully cooler than expected. And CPI actually fell 10 bps on a month-on-month basis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Sacks, you didn't mention... immigration, specifically Muslim Islamic immigration in France, that seems to be a big part of this issue that people aren't talking about and the lack of integration of that population into society. In fact, I've been told by folks in France that it's kind of the opposite.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Islamic Muslim immigrants are kind of shunned and aren't integrated by the French people themselves. I'm not sure how true that is. I don't have a lot of firsthand experience in it. But how much of that is part of what's happening in this right-left, you know, Donnybrook occurring in France? Because they're literally on the streets fighting and rioting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Obviously, when you see that three handle, that is year over year. And this is the first time we had month-over-month CPI decrease since May of 2020. So lowest CPI in three years, Jay Powell said the Fed doesn't need, he said this earlier this week, he doesn't need to see the 2% inflation to start the cuts. Obviously, I guess he wants to steer or speed up going into the turn.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They're very nationalistic. Let's call it what it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So just to recap what you're talking about, they have two rounds of elections here, they have a first round, a second round. If you don't win the majority in the first round, then it goes to the second round runoff. And then strategically, what Macron and his party did was they took the multiple parties and said, hey, we'll just have you all drop out and consolidate our votes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Almost like in a microcosm in the United States, it would be like,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Fox Business loves me. No, they're looking for a moderate. They want a moderate independent thinker, and they love Nostracanus.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They consolidated the candidates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Le Pen's party still got outvoted in each of those districts, right? Is that correct? Only because... They dropped a candidate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So September cut looks highly likely. If you look at the prediction markets, Fed funds futures now see an 89% chance of at least one rate cut by September. That's up from 73% before the print, according to FedWatch. That's a tool that tracks interest rate traders. We discussed the Fed wanting to see employment and savings cool.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It would. And what has Trump done in Trump 2.0 that I think, I don't know who could have possibly coached or given any feedback to Trump of how to win this election, but he seems much more presidential. He seems normal. He basically went right to the middle on abortion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Well, in June, unemployment was 4.1%, the highest since 2021, up from 4% in May. Here's the stunning chart of unemployment since 1948. In April 2023, unemployment bottomed out at 3.4%, the lowest since any of us were born, 1969. And you can see here there's been an uptick from this incredible historic low. So, Soft landing appears to be working. The jobs market slowing down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
He went right to the middle on immigration and he's not acting like a lunatic and name calling and, you know, his debate performance was fantastic. He just sat back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
America's very unique in that. We had a concept called the melting pot where you would culturally assimilate. And if you say that today and you were to teach that in schools, I think people would get very upset. Very upset, totally. By thinking like you are giving up your culture. No, you've chosen to leave your land and make a new world here in this new experiment called America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And if you assimilate, you're welcome here. If you don't want to assimilate, you're not welcome in America. That's what they taught when we went to school as Gen Xers in the 70s and 80s.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Inflation has dropped, tempered. And the market continues to hit all those all-time highs. S&P up 26% since last year. Mostly, of course, thanks to NVIDIA's record-breaking performance, but also Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, a lot of the FANG, Magnificent Seven. So I guess, Chamath, let's just start with you. Has the soft landing been secured?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Let's wrap up here on the hot swap summer update and the speed run primary. Biden still insists he's still running for president and he will not stand down. Since the last episode, so much has happened, including George Clooney writing an op-ed in the New York Times this week. I love Joe Biden, but we need a new nominee. Two weeks ago, Clooney co-hosted a fundraiser with Katzenberg and some other
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Hollywood bigwigs that raised $30 million for President Biden, twice as much as you guys did for Trump. But I mean, this is Hollywood.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I know. I'm just saying it's really impressive what you guys did. Clooney is also besties with Obama. And Obama has put out a tweet in support of Biden. But according to a political report, Clooney gave Obama the heads up before he published this. NBC is reporting that Biden has lost his donor base. Anonymous quotes, the money has absolutely shut off. It's already disastrous.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Two of the sources said this month is on a path to be down by possibly half or much more from large donors. Adam Schiff, who is as partisan as they come, said Biden should slow down and make the right decision here. He also said he should get new counsel, independent counsel. So that was on Meet the Press. And Nancy Pelosi gave a non-answer when asked if she supports Biden as the nominee.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And again, as partisan as they come, Tim Kaine said, complete confidence Joe Biden will do the patriotic thing. in regards to what you just now made.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Hold on. No Strakatis is going to make a prediction. Ah, I've got it. A whistleblower will emerge in the next 10 days. If you are a doctor, a nurse, a secretary, an EA, or part of the inner circle here, and you know he's in cognitive decline, whistleblow it. Hock two on that whistle and get it out there, folks, because we know there's a cover-up. We know there's a cover-up. So spit on that thang.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Hawk two.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Of course there's a cover-up. I mean, come on. Did you see this report that a doctor, a neurologist went to the White House?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Visit it. And the New York Times is putting this out there. And then watch this clip of KJP who is absolutely covering everything up. We all play poker. This person is bluffing. They're lying. It's so obvious. Play the clip, Nick.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
The point of a press conference is that you ask questions and you ask hard questions. This person is covering it up. It is a huge cover up. I haven't seen somebody lie this boldface since Elizabeth Holmes. If you had the machine that did the blood test, you'd show the machine. If there's a cognitive test that shows he's not in decline, they would show the test. Show the test.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
If you're a whistleblower, release the test. Somebody out there has the results of these tests. And if you're a doctor and you're covering this up, if you work in that White House and you're covering this up, it's the most unethical, un-American, immoral thing you can do. And this is the reason we have whistleblower protections. There are 50 people who probably know what's going on here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And I know there's at least five. So somewhere in that number is somebody who has a profile in courage, who will come out and tell the American people what the hell is going on here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I know, but this not telling the truth in a press conference with the press and then admonishing the press, admonishing the press like this, it's complete utter bullshit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And we need to give one person his flowers here. Dean Phillips came on this program seven months ago. And if you listen to All In, the number one podcast in the world, you're going to know what's going to happen in the future. It's not just Nostracanus here. The guests come on and tell us the truth. Dean Phillips told us, I quote, when I asked him, I'm not sure who asked him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
When we asked him, he said, people are saying that I'm causing his problems. that I could risk his reelection. I'm certainly not the guy that has shown his decline. That's on video. That's on audio. You see it. He's a human being, for goodness sake. Seven months ago, he said this. He's a human being. He's now in his 80s. He is clearly in decline.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
But do I think he will be in a position to continue leading this country in the future? I do not. I think I'm joined about 75% of the country in saying that. He was clear on this podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Of course. Yeah. I mean, that, listen, that worked last time. Trump in the overwhelming majority of Americans felt Trump's first presidency was too divisive and it was too chaotic. They used that to win. Okay, fair enough. Now they're trying to use that again. It's not working. Why? Trump 2.0. He's coming across as reasonable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
A lot of the things he got right when you re-underrighted him about the border, he got that right. The economy was pretty good under him. He did some things correct. He's not like all demagogue and all evil. I have my problems with his behavior.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I've made it documented here, but you cannot use that excuse anymore because Americans are gonna say cognitive decline, somebody with Alzheimer's, like my aunt, my uncle, my parent, whatever they've experienced it firsthand, For Trump, it's an easy choice for most Americans. And that's why Trump will beat Biden. And that's why they're going to do the speed run. And that's catching steam next.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And let's just, we can wrap on that, I think. I mentioned here the speed run primary a couple of weeks ago. Nick, roll the clip. must credit Nostracanus. They're going to do a Democratic primary speed run. Here's what's going to happen. They're going to do five debates in 10 weeks. And then whoever wins, wins. Kamala, he's going to resign. Kamala becomes president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Kamala gets to run in the speed run. She gets to speed run like everybody else. Dean Phillips gets to come in. Everybody speed runs it. They take over the media. The media will go crazy over the summer. Massive ratings. Boom. Pull up the semaphore article. After I made my prediction, two Democratic Party insiders have floated this very unique idea in semaphore. It's a pretty obvious idea, I guess.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Biden steps down as the nominee.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It was my idea. Because I did not hear it anywhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Well, here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I don't know what's happening in this bizarro universe. I put on a red tie and all of a sudden I'm getting everything right. Who knows? Biden steps down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I guess I got to name check me. But here's what Semaphore says. This is their version. Biden steps down as the nominee mid-July. Okay, that's now. Biden announces the new system with support from Kamala Harris. Candidates would have a few days to throw their hats in the ring. Democrats would start a primary sprint. Oh, not a speed run, a primary sprint, where six candidates, not 10,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
who've received the most votes from delegates pledged to run positive-only campaigns in the month leading up to the DNC. Weekly forums for each candidate will be moderated by cultural icons. Oh, interesting punch-up. Michelle Obama, Oprah, Taylor Swift, in order to engage voters, as I talked about taking over the media.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Nominee will be chosen by delegates using Rank Choice Voting, your favorite sacks, before the start of the DNC on August 9th. So anyway, there you have it, folks. Speedrun coming. Whistleblower, August 19th. Speedrun... and the whistleblower. Look for it this month.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Okay. Freeberg, your thoughts, and then we'll go to Sachs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
You worried about him?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Shout out to Scott Adams and his hoax list. Here we go. Scott Adams is obsessed with his facts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
God, when they started, this is when you knew something was in the air. When he got like, started getting ovations and clapping from the rigged, CNN audience for the town hall. I mean, or maybe CNN did that and set up themselves and set up the Democrats. I don't know. I don't think it was a setup.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
He can beat anybody comedically. You got to admit that Trump has the huevos. He can immediately beat anybody in mainstream media.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
This episode's off the rails. For the chairman dictator calling in from Italy, my bestie, David Sachs. I'll see you on Jesse Waters and at the RNC. For Freeberg, who's genuflecting somewhere in a retreat center, I am. I'm no stracanus and I have a prediction. I have a prediction. We're going to see you at the next episode, everybody. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And now the plugs. The All In Summit is taking place in Los Angeles, September 8th, 9th, and 10th. You can apply for tickets, summit.allinpodcast.co. And you can subscribe to this show on YouTube. Yes, watch all the videos. Our YouTube channel has passed 500,000 subscribers. Shout out to Donnie from Queens. Follow the show, x.com slash the all in pod, TikTok all underscore in underscore top.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Instagram, the all in pod, LinkedIn, search for all in podcast and to follow Chamath. He's x.com slash Chamath. Sign up for his weekly email. What I read this week at chamath.substack.com and sign up for a developer account at console.grok.com and see what all the excitement is about. Follow Sachs at x.com slash davidsachs and sign up for Glue at glue.ai. Follow Friedberg, x.com slash friedberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And Ohalo is hiring. Click on the careers page at ohalogenetics.com. I am the world's greatest moderator, Jason Calacanis. If you are a founder and you want to come to my accelerators and my programs, founder.university, launch.close.apply to apply for funding from your boy J-Cal for your startup. And check out athenowow.com. This is the company I am most excited about at the moment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
athenowow.com to get a virtual assistant for about $3,000 a month. I have two of them. Thanks for tuning in to the world's number one podcast. You can help by telling just two friends. That's all I ask. Forward this podcast to two friends and say, this is the world's greatest podcast. You got to check it out. It'll make you smarter and make you laugh, laugh while learning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
We'll see you all next time. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
People are talking about that? Talking about that freeberg of that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They call this the inputs, right? This is what they say, the inputs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's very interesting, the obsession with the two. I brought this up on the show. The 2% handle and this target came from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. This guy, Roger Douglas, Minister of Finance, And he came up with it because they just asked him, like, well, what's a healthy one? And he came up with that, and then everybody adopted it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Basically, it's just sitting out there. Okay, so for a completely objective, nonpartisan view of all this incredible economic data, we go to our RNC correspondent, David Sachs. Throw a wet blanket on this incredible news.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Just going down the middle here. Joking, obviously, but a little bit. But this is just rate the Fed's reaction to this. It seems like the Fed's supposed to be independent. Obviously, this Fed chair has worked across administrations. So We've said here very critically, they got started too late. They should have got ahead of this, but I mean, rate their performance since then.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Do you think they're nailing this and there's going to be a soft landing? What you have concerns, you're optimistic about the economy and how they've handled it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Rain Man, David Sasson.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Psychology has so much to do with this. I thought I was doing a little research on it, why it's so contentious and there's so much of a lack of consensus about it. Nick, pull up this chart. I wanted to share it with you guys. This is basically a psychological phenomenon called partisan economic perception. And this has been studied for some time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And what's really interesting about it is it shows what percentage of people who are Democrats and Republicans here in the United States of America say the economy is good. And if you look at Clinton, and he got to be president at the helm during the internet revolution and this incredible economic boom, he was obviously so centrist, right? He appealed to both sides of the aisle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
A fugazi? Fugazi?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And you had this very tight consensus that the economy was good. Democrats were maybe three or four percentage points above Republicans in that perception. And then Bush came in and all of a sudden Democrats hated Bush so much that they perceived the same economy 2000. And you obviously have the dot com bus there. So they both went down in unison, especially after the Great Recession.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
All right, everybody, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. It's been confirmed by the CEO of Beep, who told us we are the Beep podcast on his platform. It's episode 186. From the home office in Italy, the chairman, dictator Chamath Palihapitiya. How you doing, brother? Hello, Jason. How are you? We're good. We're good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
But you have this disparity that comes up, Chamath, where you have 25 points between how they perceive it. Obama, obviously, Democrats were incredibly enthusiastic about Obama, effusive even, but Republicans hated him with a passion, right? I mean, that was really when Fox News started to get cooking. And then you look at Trump, same exact phenomenon. It flips. Under Trump, 80% of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Republicans think, oh, the economy is good. And then Democrats say it's not good. And that plummets and you get this big dispersion. There are two moments in time, Freiburg, where, or three, when you start to see the consensus get tighter, and that's during a crash. So there's your dot-com crash, great financial crisis, and an election. Yeah. And great. That's a very good point, actually.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I didn't notice that. And then also during the pandemic. So you have three crises.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So Freiburg, you know, looking at this, I think it explains so much of the tension in the country that we can't even agree on, you know, hey, is the economy good? It's just everything is perceived through your partisan lens. What's your takeaway from this? Is it that we just don't run moderates anymore like Clinton?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
You can pick them up this afternoon. Let your winners ride. Rain Man, David Sasson.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
David Sachs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Hmm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
On a multiple basis, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Open source it to the fans, and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, Wes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
We need to get merch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Would there be like a specialized chip that would run on the phone that was really good at powering a phone size AI model?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
What about computer vision? I mean, they have glasses or maybe you could wear a pendant. I mean, you take the combination of visual or video data, combine it with voice, and now the AI knows everything that's happening around you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
We saw that with Google Glass. People got punched in the face in the mission. Started a lot of fights.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
What are the apps that could be unlocked if AI was sort of ubiquitous on people's phones? Do you have a sense of that or what would you want to see built?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Thank you. Thank you, guys.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Okay, sure. I mean, I think the whole industry is waiting with bated breath for the release of GPT-5. I guess it's been reported that it's launching sometime this summer, but that's a pretty big window. Can you narrow that down? I guess, where are you in the release of GPT-5?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
What was your take on it? People got really emotional about it, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Stronger reaction than you would think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Yeah, and they're clueless. These people are clueless.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
So here's the point. What happened?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I said, I think that's happened to you before, J. Cal. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Basically, you got fired by tweet. That happened a few times during the Trump administration. A few cabinet appointments got tweeted out. They did call me first before tweeting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
What percent of it was because of these nonprofit board members?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
But I mean, like, was there a culture clash between the people on the board who had only nonprofit experience versus the people who had startup experience?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Actually, let me ask you about that. So the mission of OpenAI is explicitly to create AGI, which I think is really interesting. A lot of people would say that if we create AGI, that would be like an unintended consequence of something gone wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
horribly wrong and they're very afraid of that outcome but open ai makes that the actual mission does that create like more fear about what you're doing i mean i understand it can create motivation too but how do you reconcile that i guess why i think a lot of i think a lot of the well i mean first i'll say i'll answer the first question in the second one i think it does create a great deal of fear i think a lot of the world is understandably
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
If I could go back in time. Why don't they give you a grant now? Why doesn't the board just give you a big option grant like you deserve?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
It's PLO. Sam, thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
It's nuts on everything, honestly. Thank you so much. Thanks for coming on. Thanks, Dan. Let's have you back when the next F the Big launch. Sounds good. Please do. Cool. Bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
There clearly was some sort of culture clash on the board between the people who originated from the nonprofit world and the people who came from the startup world. We don't really know more than that, but there clearly was some sort of culture clash.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I thought a couple of the other areas that he drew attention to that were kind of interesting is he clearly thinks there's a big opportunity on mobile that goes beyond just having a ChatGPT app on your phone, or maybe even having a Siri on your phone. There's clearly something bigger there. He doesn't know exactly what it is, but It's going to require more inputs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
It's that personal assistant that's seeing everything around you and helping you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Yeah, he's talking about an executive assistant or an assistant that has executive function as opposed to being like just an alter ego for you or what he called a sycophant. That's kind of interesting. I thought that was interesting, yeah. Yeah, and clearly he thinks there's a big opportunity in biology and scientific discovery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Our time was limited and there's a lot of questions that we could ask him that would have just been a waste of time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Yeah, of course he's going to no comment on any lawsuit and he's already been asked about that 500 times. Should we take a quick break before we come back?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Speaking of billionaires who are coming, isn't *** coming too? Yes, *** is coming. Yes, he's booked. So we have three billionaires.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Like, if you ever got one place... Do not poke the bear. Well, by the way, speaking of updates, what did you guys think of the bottle for the all-in tequila? Oh, beautiful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
You're going to, you're going to want to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Looks like we can. Oh, is it going to make it? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I mean, the vol design is so complicated that we had to do a feasibility analysis on whether it was actually manufacturable, but it is. So, or at least the early reports are good. So, we're going to, hopefully we'll have some made for the, in time for the all-in summit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I think you're exaggerating what happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Look, they're not threatening anybody, and I don't even think they tried to barricade him in. They were just outside the building, and because they were blocking the driveway, his car couldn't leave. But he wasn't physically locked in the building or something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I didn't see it coming. The Constitution of the United States in the First Amendment provides for the right of assembly, which includes protest incidents as long as they're peaceable. Now, obviously, if they go too far and they vandalize or break into buildings or use violence, then that's not peaceable. However... Expressing sentiments with which you disagree does not make it violent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And there's all these people out there now making the argument that if you hear something from a protester that you don't like, and you subjectively experience that as a threat to your safety, then that somehow should be treated as valid, like that's basically violent. Well, that's not what the Constitution says.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And these people understood well just a few months ago that that was basically snowflakery. That, you know, just because somebody, you know what I'm saying? We have the rise of the woke right now where they're buying into the woke right. They're buying into this idea of safetyism, which is being exposed to ideas you don't like, to protests you don't like, is a threat to your safety. No, it's not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
So now we have snowflakes on one side. We absolutely have snowflakery on both sides now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
That's not cool. Yeah, obviously you can't do that. But look, I think that... Most of the protests on most of the campuses have not crossed the line. They've just occupied the lawns of these campuses. And look, I've seen some troublemakers try to barge through the encampments and claim that because they can't go through there, that somehow they're being prevented from going to class.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Look, you just walk around the lawn and you can get to class, okay?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Some of these videos are showing that these are effectively right-wing provocateurs who are engaging in left-wing tactics. I don't support it either way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Look, there's no question that because the protests are originating on the left that there's some goofy views. Like, you know, you're dealing with like a left-wing idea complex, right? But... And, you know, it's easy to make fun of them doing different things, but...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
The fact of the matter is that most of the protests on most of these campuses are, even though they can be annoying because they're occupying part of the lawn, they're not violent. And the way they're being cracked down on, they're sending the police in at 5 a.m. to crack down on these encampments with batons and riot gear. And I find that part to be completely excessive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Yeah, that crosses the line, obviously.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
oh my god the overdubs on her were hilarious i was like uh humanitarian i was like we need our door dash right now we need to be double dash some boba and we can't get it through the police we need our boba low sugar boba with the with the popping boba bubbles wasn't getting in but you know people have the right to protest and a piece of bull by the way there's a word i've never heard very good sax a piece of bull inclined to avoid argument or violent conflict very nice
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Well, it's in the Constitution. It's in the First Amendment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
What about Lama 3? Llama 3 running on a phone? Well, I guess maybe there's like a $7 billion version. Yeah, yeah. I don't know if that will fit on a phone or not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I think maybe what they're trying to do is the selling point of this new iPad is that it's the thinnest one. I mean, there's no innovation left, so they're just making the devices thinner. So I think the idea was that they were going to take this hydraulic press to represent how ridiculously thin the new iPad is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Now, I don't know if the point there was to smush all of that good stuff into the iPad. I don't know if that's what they were trying to convey. But yeah, I think that... By destroying all those creative tools that Apple is supposed to represent, it definitely seemed very off-brand for them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And I think people were reacting to the fact that it was so different than what they would have done in the past. And of course, everyone was saying, well, Steve would never have done this. I do think it did land wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I mean, I didn't care that much, but I was kind of asking the question, like, why are they destroying all these creator tools that they're renowned for creating or for turning into the digital version?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Well, also holding it forever could mean one share. Yeah, exactly. We kind of need to know like how much are we talking about?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I don't know if it's good enough to kind of do the thing I'm thinking about here. So when Llama 3 got released, I think the big takeaway for a lot of people was, oh, wow, they've like caught up to GPT-4. I don't think it's equal in all dimensions, but it's like pretty... pretty close or pretty in the ballpark. I guess the question is, you know, you guys released four a while ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Well, if you're running out of in-house innovation and you can't do M&A, then your options are kind of limited. I mean, I do think that the fact that the big news out of Apple is the iPad's getting thinner does represent kind of the end of the road in terms of innovation. It's kind of like when they added the third camera to the iPhone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
It reminds me of those, remember like when the Gillette Mach 3 came out and then they did the 5?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
But then Gillette actually came out with the Mach 5, so the parody became the reality. What are they going to do, add two more cameras to the iPhone? You have five cameras on it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
That would have been a funnier ad. Yeah. Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Yeah. The all-in-one TV would have been good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
You're working on five or, you know, more upgrades to four. I mean, I think to Jamal's point about Devin, how do you stay ahead of open source? I mean, that's just like a very hard thing to do in general, right? I mean, how do you think about that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Actually, that would be pretty amazing. Like if they did a Crestron or Savant. Because then when you just go to your Apple TV, all your cameras just work. You don't need to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Well, everyone has Apple TV at this point, so you just make Apple TV the brain for the home system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And you can connect your phone to it, and yes, that would be very nice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Enough. I'll be here for three more nights.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Love you, boys. Bye-bye. Love you, besties. Is this the all-on pod or open mic night? What's going on? It's basically it. I'm just bored.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
I'm David Sack.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
This is Alex's chance for a rematch. That's right. As I recall, I beat her last time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah, I think it's a pretty good framework. I mean, you have the message, you have the messenger, and I guess you have the campaign at a tactical level. I think it's a little bit unfair to blame this entire defeat on Kamala Harris being a bad messenger or candidate. It's true, she's not the greatest candidate. She has a lot of problems.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
How many swing states did you vote in? I voted in four swing states. They sent multiple ballots to my house. I filled in all of them. Nick, cut this shit out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
However, I don't think she was dealt a particularly strong hand. The fact of the matter is that we did have rampant inflation in this country that really hurt people in their pocketbooks every time they went to the grocery store. And that resulted from the trillions of spending that was agreed to by virtually the entire Democratic Party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Remember, not only did they pass trillions in spending, they wanted $4.5 trillion more for Build Back Better. And the only reason that didn't happen is because Manchin and Sinema voted against it. Can you imagine how much worse inflation would have been? Manchin was driven into retirement, and Sinema was basically kicked out of the party. She effectively told us that at the all-in summit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So this defeat is on the entire Democratic Party. The Democratic Party was in support of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's agenda. They were in support of the de facto open border policies. They were in support of the soft-on-crime Soros DA decarceral policies. You can see that even in California. which is a deep blue state, there's a huge backlash. Huge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
This sort of insane, soft on crime agenda the Democrats have. 70% of California voted for Prop 36, which basically reversed the excesses of Prop 47, which a decade ago basically made shoplifting legal in California. You know who opposed Prop 36 despite its massive popularity? Gavin Newsom. Kamala Harris wouldn't say whether she supported it or not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So what you see is that even in blue states, the Democratic Party elites are completely out of touch with what people want. And then finally, you've got foreign policy, where I think that the Democratic agenda basically wanting to engage in a proxy war with Vladimir Putin because he's the incarnation of all evil, that I think is blown up in the collective West face.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
That has been a disaster that was supported by the entire Democratic Party. So on issue after issue that I think mattered in this election, you cannot just put the blame on Kamala Harris. It's got to be on the Democratic Party as a whole. And just to echo what Chamath said about the cultural stuff, they've talked down to us. They've lectured us. They've insulted us. They've censored us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
She needed more time. If we had given her more time, that was a really tough situation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
They've gaslit us. They've tried to cancel us. They've tried. to cancel us. They tried to punish dissent with lawfare. They turned Elon into an enemy, which was the single worst own goal in history. Remember, this wasn't just... And Joe Rogan. Don't forget. They kicked Joe Rogan out as well. Bernie supporter Joe Rogan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But with Elon, it wasn't just disinviting him or never inviting him to the EV summit. It goes all the way back to Lorena Gonzalez's tweet telling him to F off and leave the state of California. So look, the Democratic Party as a whole has to own this, and they're not going to start winning elections again until they have an improvement in their agenda, not just their messenger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that's a very interesting question, is whether the Democrats have the necessary introspection to learn from this loss. I would say that one of them does. If you look at Matt Iglesias, who's someone I've sparred with on TwitterX, who is a Democrat partisan, he basically tweeted a list of principles that he thought the Democrat party needed to adopt. I read it and retweeted it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I said, laughing my ass off, this is a list of Republican principles. Yeah. It was all about opposing woke and being in favor of merit and innovation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I'm like, great, look, you know what? If the Democratic Party wants to adopt these principles, that's a wonderful thing for the country. I hope that they do it, okay? But will they do it? I have my doubts. You look at this tweet by Ari Fleischer where he talks about who the Democratic Party now is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Right, exactly. So what you see is that the Democratic Party base is these very affluent, very overeducated, very non-religious types. And frankly, I wonder whether they're too out of touch to know they're out of touch. They're certainly very whiny and entitled. And I just don't think They're going to cede control of the party without a fight.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And frankly, they've disappeared so far up their own woke asses that I don't think they can find an electoral majority if they try. So if these people stay in control of the party, and these are the people who you're seeing having a mental breakdown on TikTok. They're posting all the videos. They're insulting the electorate. And let's face it, it's not just on TikTok. It's on the legacy media.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
It's on MSDNC. It's basically the legacy media who are trying to diagnose a psychosis in the American electorate to explain why they were so wrong. If those people stay in control, I think that the Republicans could have an electoral majority as far as the eye can see.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
How much is this costing us?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
A million bucks?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
How many tickets are we selling?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
What's the total attendance size?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Anyone can do this math. How big is the theater? And what are we charging for the tickets?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So look, I did predict the doom loop for Kamala Harris two months ago because she is just not good at interviews or being off the cuff or being unscripted.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah, Saxtradamus was right about that. Absolutely. However, and I would say the biggest problem in her campaign is that she would neither defend the Biden-Harris record nor say what she would do differently. The question you have to ask is why? And I think it's because she was in a really tough position that her own party put her in.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Which is, they said, you can't criticize Joe Biden because he's the sitting president. But at the same time, you can't defend him either because he's so unpopular. Well, what made him unpopular? Democratic Party policies. They should have, frankly, looking back, they should have just let Joe Biden defend his own record.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The old man must have been in the White House gnashing his teeth, saying, please put me in the game. Let me defend my own record. He at least believed in it. The Democrats wouldn't defend their own record because it was so bad. You have to put some blame for that, not just on Kamala. but on the entire party. That's my only point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We're really going to say that this has to be a conspiracy theory now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Freebird, let me just go back to your point about the money. It is true that the Democrats had roughly three times as much money as the Republicans did. The Democrats had something like a billion dollars for this campaign. The Republicans had 300 and something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
For the presidential campaign, exactly. The Republicans obviously still won in a landslide.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
My point is just the Democrats had a massive advantage on the money side. They also, I think, had a massive advantage on what you would call the legacy media side. I mean, I don't know how you put a value, a dollar value on what the legacy media has done, not just in this election cycle, but for the last eight or nine years. They have basically called Donald Trump a Nazi, a fascist, a traitor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Did it work? Or did it blow up in their faces?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah, it blew up in their faces. They called him an agent of Putin. They called him an insurrectionist. They called him a convicted felon. They called him a dictator. They've been yelling that at the top of their lungs now for at least four years. The country didn't believe it. I would just say that the legacy media spell is broken. Their credibility has been destroyed.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I think that the repudiation of the legacy media is one of the most important results of this election. It just shows that the Democrats had, I don't know how you valued, a trillion dollar propaganda machine on their side, and Trump was still able to win.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And you have to, at the end of the day, say that that's a result not just of alternative media gaining steam and free speech on X. I think those were absolutely necessary enablers. It's also the fact that Trump has a trillion dollar personality and is a tremendously gifted communicator and politician in his own unique way. But finally, you have to say that the issues are on Trump's side.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Americans want the border to be sealed. They see that the spending and the bureaucracy in Washington are out of control. They do not want woke cancel culture anymore. They see America getting over-involved in foreign wars. They want the spending to be brought back home where it benefits them. These are the key points of the Trump agenda.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And at the end of the day, whatever you want to say about Trump, he ran a campaign based on issues. He talked about issues. What did Kamala Harris run her campaign on? vibes, celebrity endorsements, name calling, debunked hoaxes.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Listen, I don't think you can separate the man from the message or the messenger from the message. Listen, if you had a conventional Republican out there, I don't think that they could have overcome the trillion dollar propaganda machine of the legacy media. That being said, I think if Donald Trump had been campaigning,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
It's like, oh, we're spending a million dollars? I won't be there. Thanks! Sorry, keep going.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
with Mitt Romney's message or Mitch McConnell's message, I don't think he would have gone anywhere. I don't even think he would have been the Republican nominee. You have to say that Trump, since 2016, has tapped into something very deep in the American electorate. And this is something we can get into.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But I think that if you look back now over the last 10 years, it's clear that he's the transformational figure in American politics. It's not Barack Obama, with all due respect.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Let your winners ride. Rain Man, David Sackett.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And they embraced the Cheneys, ultimate proof of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I did see a tweet where somebody somebody gave me a lot of credit for moving the Overton window in Silicon Valley. And they said that Jason was indispensable as my foil. If I didn't have him to dunk on for four years with my political takes, it wouldn't have been nearly as effective.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I can feel that one line is going to come back to haunt me. Keep that line in, Nick. I am the head of my family. Okay, anyways. Guys, sorry. You can be the head of the family. Let's get back up. Okay, go back, go back, go back, go back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We need someone to represent the legacy media point of view.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Well, so first of all, I think the Senate majority matters a lot in terms of Trump getting the appointments that he wants. Because if he was just at 51, let's call it, it would be quite hard. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski tend to be very, very moderate Republicans and would oppose, I think, a lot of conservative appointments.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Trump's already at 53 senators, and there's two more that are still up for grabs and waiting to be counted. So you might get to 54 in the next week or so. It just means he's going to have a freer range on appointments. I think that'd be really good for Bobby Kennedy. I think it might be harder to get Bobby Kennedy confirmed for a major cabinet post with 51, with 53, 54. I think we get there.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that's a really great thing for the country. There's other appointments in a similar vein that I think will be easier for Trump to get through. In terms of the rest of the agenda, I mean, Trump clearly does want to end the war in Ukraine. Is he going to be able to do it on day one? No.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I mean, I don't think that's realistic because, frankly, the Ukrainians are not willing to make the concessions yet. They're not in a place where they're willing to make a deal. I still think that what Trump was saying during the campaign, if you look at his expression of his motivations and where his sentiments are coming from, they were good sentiments. But if he can't solve it on day one,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Because the Ukrainians don't want to make a deal, I can't really fault him for that. But I think he'll try. I think that on Doge, there's clearly a strong desire of many in the Republican Party and Elon and the people that Elon brought with him for major government reform. Much more efficiency, much less spending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah, I went over there, I guess, around 7.30, I want to say, Eastern Time. Tucker invited me to come on his show. Tucker was doing a live stream from the library at Mar-a-Lago. I'd actually never been over there before. There was also a dinner going on in the ballroom, which was, I think, primarily for Mar-a-Lago members. And there were some senators there, members of the campaign.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that we have to get as much of that passed as possible in the first, certainly the first year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So if Elon's objective is cutting $2 trillion... There might be some things you can just do through executive orders, and they should do as much as they can. But I think you do need some congressional action as well. This is an area where it's just going to be really hard because spending is a bipartisan problem. And it's going to be really hard to jam through the type of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
deep reform that we really should have at the federal level. But I think that now there's a shot because Trump does have majorities in the House and Senate that he can at least get something through. So at least we have a shot at getting something done there. Are we going to get $2 trillion in cuts like Elon wants? I would love that. I doubt you're going to be able to pass that through Congress.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But do you start with that number and then work your way down to a number that you can get both parties to support. Maybe that's possible. Hopefully.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But I think reforming the bureaucracy is just such a huge theme coming out of this election. And we just have to figure out how to get that done. Got the mandate. We have the mandate. That's Trump's mandate.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
There's some rumors that he's going to run for governor of Ohio, but he'd be amazing in the federal government. Tulsi Gabbard. We got to get Tulsi in there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And then there was another room set up with a bunch of TVs for basically the staff to watch the results come in. When I first got there, people were kind of just watching, trying to find out the early results. I would say that the whispers were positive, but people didn't fundamentally know more than the rest of us. Everyone was kind of waiting for the results to come in.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The rumor is veteran affairs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But hopefully it's at least that. Yeah. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
You know, there's another race that's going on that's really below the surface but is extremely important, and that is the new Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell. Senate Majority Leader, yeah. Mitch McConnell says he's stepping aside. There's two major candidates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Well, it's John Thune versus Cornyn from Texas, and Mike Lee has been sort of agitating. It's not clear that Mike Lee will throw his hat in the ring. If he did, I would be all in favor of it. If Mike Lee, who is from Utah, doesn't, we should really go with whoever he recommends.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I really trust that Mike Lee will represent the MAGA agenda, whereas, quite frankly, the other candidates will be a continuation of Mitch. And this is Trump's moment to weigh in on that. He's basking in the glow right now. He is in the winner's circle. He can get anything through the Republican caucus.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I think that he could weigh in right now in the Senate majority race and make sure the right person gets it. If you get a continuation of Mitch McConnell, you will not get real reform through the Senate. Look at what happened during Trump won. Mitch McConnell was one of Trump's biggest opponents. So there would be alternatives, but I think Trump would have to step in and act.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
There's some talk about Rick Scott from Florida being a candidate. I think he'd be very good if he's still in the race. Or just go right over the top and go with a Mike Lee. This is your moment to basically put in a loyalist.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
No, he's got two more years. So he's got until 26.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So, you know, I mean, the room, I don't want to say too much, but I think this is pretty much out there. I think we're now one state, not defense. I think that it's not to say he's going to get it. I don't know. But that's been out there for a long time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that what a lot of people in, let's call it the MAGA movement, the America First movement, are going to be looking at very closely is, do neocons worm their way into this administration? Look at what happened during Trump 1. He ran in opposition to forever wars. I think it was a major part of his appeal. It's what allowed him to shatter the Bush dynasty.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
It's what I think really hurt Kamala in terms of having the Chinese embrace her. So it's a major part of his... I'd say not just appeal, but also his legacy, that he will not continue forever wars. But the problem is that the blob keeps infiltrating Trump administration, or they did. They infiltrated Trump one by putting in John Bolton and Esper and all these guys who frankly betrayed Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So I think a lot of people are looking closely at, will neocons be able to worm their way into this administration? And if they do, it would be very, very sad, I think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I did get a chance to take a photo with the president. Actually, Elon came in separately around the same time, and we got a very memorable photograph here. When I shook the president's hand, I got to tell you, he was cool as a cucumber. He did not seem nervous at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And you know what? Here's the great danger is you look at the last few months, okay? Who was there for Trump? It was people like Elon. It was basically all of us who worked. And look, I'm a very minor, minor figure, but I did my little part. And there were a lot of other people on the ground doing their thing. But where is Elon today? Elon had to fly home for a Tesla board meeting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
He's got real companies to run. And who all of a sudden shows up in Mar-a-Lago? The swamp creatures. They were nowhere to be found for the last three months. Now the swamp creatures come crawling out and they're going to be swarming Mar-a-Lago and trying to worm their way into the administration. And that's the issue is we got to keep... This is where I hope that all the MAGA influencers...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
stay frosty and stay involved. We have to consolidate this victory and get reform type people in the administration, not just the usual type people from Washington.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
No, I mean, I've already said before, I'm the key man at Kraft. I can't do that. But, you know, look, I would do something part time, meaning if it wasn't a full time job, if I didn't have to leave my current job, if it was just serving on some advisory committee or something that was compatible with my current job, I would do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah, I think he was confident, but I don't think he was acting like he had it in the bag or anything like that. They didn't know yet, but he was just super, super relaxed and calm and taking photos with everyone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah. I mean, look, I think what Elon showed is that a smart person can come in who basically, like you said, can go into demon mode, has a startup or innovation mentality, is willing to spend money but wants to do it smartly, but is really hardcore, can come in and beat the supposed professionals of their own game. I think one of the big stories that's going to come out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
There's already some tea being spilled within Democratic circles about Jen O'Malley Dillon, who was the campaign manager that Kamala Harris inherited from Biden. She had a billion dollars to spend.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The campaign still ended $20 million in debt. in debt. And this at least has been reported. Where'd the money go? Well, I'll tell you. The money went to expensive consultants. They did overly elaborate staged events. They did these fake concerts, celebrity cameos. Supposedly, they paid Beyonce $10 million and they didn't even get a song out of it and that ended up pissing people off.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I don't know if that's true. I just read it in a tweet, so I can't say for sure, but that's what I read.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
It sounds suspect, but The point is they spent a lot of money on the consultants and the events. And Elon went after the Amish, you know? That's like a lot smarter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
It was just a normal handshake. But my point is like I could detect no nervousness whatsoever on his part. And look, the rest of us were like nervous. We were wondering what was going to happen. The whole country was nervous. Yeah. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah, well, I could definitely add to that. I mean, look, I think Obama's whole mystique was that he transcended politics and he tried to maintain that position of being above the fray and let the grubby business of politics be beneath him. And even during the whole coup against Biden, I mean, they say that Obama signed off.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
He was basically in favor of the switcheroo to Harris, but he was the last person to endorse it, right? He did not want to be seen as doing the dirty work that was left to Nancy Pelosi. But there's no question That the switcheroo, I think, was backed by Obama. And then he did everything he could to problem Harris, including using the very fine people hoax, telling these lies. And I agree, Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that he has diminished himself. He's brought himself now down to the level of politics.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Well, you said that he would start with a million people, 500,000 to a million who are clear criminals. He should do that. Well, that's what J.D. Vance said, and we all agree on that. Yeah, J.D. said that the way you report- What about the other 14? He said that the way that you do deportations is the same way you eat an elephant. You do it one bite at a time. A sandwich. Eat a sandwich.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So the way you eat an elephant is you do it one bite at a time. Let's start with the biggest criminals, the biggest people who shouldn't be here, and then let's see what happens after that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We haven't gotten there yet. The point is you take the first bite of the sandwich, then you talk about the second bite. But there was a line from the 2016 election about Trump that I think was attributed to Peter Thiel, which is very important, which is that Trump should be taken seriously, but not literally. Okay. Sometimes when he expresses a policy or a point of view, he sells it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So when he says, I'm gonna end the Ukraine war on day one, does that mean he's literally gonna do it on day one? No, what it means is he's gonna try really hard to end the Ukraine war. If he does it on day 365 of his presidency instead of day one, I'm not gonna come out and say he lied and didn't do what he said. No, I'm gonna say he got the job done. He did what he said he was gonna do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So I think it's very important to judge him in that way. When he says, I'm going to deport 15 million people, do I expect him to do all 15 million? Not necessarily. But if he closes the border, builds the wall, seals it so it's no longer a problem, and deports 500,000 to a million hardcore criminals out of this country, I'm going to say that was a massive success.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And you know what's going to happen? The legacy media is going to say, well, he lied because he didn't deport the other 14.2 million. Come on. Let's understand the difference between campaigning and governing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
There's a dinner in the ballroom. Actually, I saw Jared there. Jared was very nice to me. He asked me, do you want to sit down at the dinner? And I could have joined him, but then I decided to do the live stream with you guys, and I pulled in Don Jr., and we did the live stream with Don Jr.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Can I say a word about, I think it's so important for Bobby Kennedy to be confirmed in whatever cabinet position that he's going to get. Number one, you know, we look back at the campaign now and it seems obvious that Trump was going to win it. But at the time that Bobby Kennedy came on board, that was a major factor in shifting momentum towards Trump. So that's number one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Number two, we need to keep Bobby Kennedy's coalition as part of our movement. It's not just about what he did in this last election. It's keeping all of those people, those young people and those former Democrats on side and part of the Republican Party and the MAGA movement. And number three, he's genuinely going to reform that huge part of the bureaucracy. And that's extremely important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We need outsiders to come in and shake things up. He's right about the regulatory capture. He's right about the marriage of state power and corporate greed. Let's have someone go in there who's got fresh eyes but also understands how the bureaucracy works because he's litigated and shake things up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Well, that's what Don Jr. told us. But look, there's a process to get in. I mean, I don't live in Palm Beach. I think the Palm Beach community is members of Mar-a-Lago. Yeah. So I think that there were, you know, it wasn't a huge group of people at Mar-a-Lago and really all the supporters were convened at the convention center in Palm Beach. There were thousands of people there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Totally. And what I said, just what Chamath referred to is, yeah, I said we should do Twitter files for the whole federal government. Just what I meant by that is remember before Elon bought Twitter, they told us for years that the idea that Twitter was shadowbaiting conservatives and engaging in censorship was a conspiracy theory.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Then Elon opened up the Twitter files and we saw that it was all true. And moreover, that the government was engaged in censorship. They had been working hand in glove with the trust and safety department.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The FBI had their own. tool called Teleport, which would allow them to transmit secret instructions to the trust and safety team at Twitter. And they were censoring based on those instructions. That's completely unacceptable. Twitter management lied about it. The government lied about it. We only found out through the Twitter files. Let's do a Twitter files for the federal government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
What do you think we're going to find out? What do you think we would find out about COVID? What do you think really happened there? If Bobby Kennedy can do that, the lies they told us,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think originally they had talked about doing a election night party at Mar-a-Lago, but it just got too big. So they moved it to the convention center. So I don't know, whatever it was that I dropped off the live stream with you guys, I then moved to the convention center, got back on with Newt. And then we were kind of waiting at the convention center.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Okay, well, the federal government now overclassifies everything. We have something like, what, like a billion classified documents? They literally classify everything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Let me make one other suggestion. We need a massive declassification effort of the federal government. Maybe this is the way to actually implement the Twitter files strategy. The problem is we have a massive over-classification problem. Billions of documents have been classified at the federal government. Why?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Because those bureaucracies know that they can kind of do whatever they want and kind of work in peace without having to disclose what they're really doing if they just mark classified on a document. Someone needs to go through that and start massively declassifying. If they do that, then there'll be a lot more documents available to FOIA requests. So that right there would be a huge help.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And then, like you said, the FOIA process could be tightened up. It could be a lot faster. It could be a lot easier. And they should not be able to circumvent it by doing the kind of stuff that J-Cal referred to. during COVID where they were like deliberately misspelling words so that they wouldn't show up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We were all feeling good, increasingly so, throughout the night. I would say that when Pennsylvania finally got called, then I think everyone knew that it was in the bag at that point. And it was just a matter of time before the election got called for Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Knucklehead? You're the knucklehead of the All In Pod.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
You say you want him to be open to debate. I personally have never seen a candidate for office who's been more open to discourse, debate, interviews than Bobby Kennedy. He's done everything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
You know who is not open to debate and discourse and transparency is a bureaucracy. That's the problem. If you want government reform, you have to get into the bureaucracy. You need outsiders to come in. You need to make it transparent. You gotta declassify. That's what you gotta do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And then, you know, at some point they kind of herded us downstairs into that large ballroom where Trump gave his victory speech with the rest of the campaign staff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I'd like you to show me in the Constitution where the bureaucracy or the administrative state is a branch of the government. I see in the Constitution that we are supposed to be ruled by an executive branch. a legislative branch, a judicial branch. I do not see, hold on, I do not see an administrative branch. That has sprung into existence over the last several decades, and it rules us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
There's roughly three million people who work for the federal government. Of those, the president basically appoints 3,000, and it takes forever to get them through. So we have roughly three million people who don't report to anyone. Nominally, they're supposed to report to the executive branch, but the president can't fire him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We talked about on the previous show, if Elon had gone into Twitter and he hadn't been allowed to fire anyone, do you think he could have restored free speech to Twitter? Of course not. They just would have kept doing whatever they wanted to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And that is the big problem in the federal government right now is we are ruled by a fourth branch of government that is not in the Constitution, that doesn't report to anybody. It is not subject to elections. We can't vote them out and we can't fire them. And they have been in the forefront of trying to stop Trump and the larger reform movement that he represents.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Ever since Trump got elected in 2016, remember, it was members of the administrative states, specifically the security state, who said, don't worry, we're going to be the insurance policy against Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And they have done everything possible through the Russiagate hoax, through welfare, through the whole Steele dossier hoax, to basically try and stop Trump and the reform movement that he represents. And
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The big question of Trump's second term will be whether he can finally subdue this bureaucracy and bring it under democratic control, under the control of the executive branch, as the American people want, and as I think the Constitution intended. Right now, we are run by an unelected branch of government that has to stop.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And what Trump represents is not dictatorship, but democracy, the triumph of democracy over this bureaucracy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that was an absolute precursor, which is... It was insane. I mean, again, you had a Supreme Court ruling that effectively made the administrative state the highest law on the land, even though there's no... constitutional basis for it. So, yeah, repealing Chevron was definitely half of it. And I think the other half of it is going to be whether lawmakers have to pass laws.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We need bills passed by the Republican Congress that Trump can sign. But we also need, I think, cabinet level appointments who will start to subdue the bureaucracy, bring them under control, find out what they're doing. Just give us transparency around what they're doing. Twitter filed this thing so then we can reform it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
That was bad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I still live there, and I do think that it was a big election in terms of improving things in San Francisco, so congrats to Daniel Lurie. He's a friend of mine as well. You go down to L.A., another big race. We booted Gascon, who was the Soros DA, who ruined San Francisco and then failed his way up to L.A., was ruining L.A., and Nathan Hockman, who's, you know, moderate...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
beat him by something like 20 points. And then, like I mentioned, we got Prop 36 passed in California by about 70%, which reversed some of the excesses of Prop 47, which was the proposition a decade ago. That was passed by then-Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom and then-Attorney General Kamala Harris to de facto... legalized shoplifting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So the people of California have had enough of these policies that frankly enable crime, enable homelessness, enable drug use, and they want a correction. Look, even wokes and blue state liberals don't want their cars broken into. I mean, it's really shocking. It's really simple.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Right. And, you know, one final point on this is that while the people of California resoundingly, again, over 70% supported Prop 36, there was one prominent figure who was opposed to it, which was Gavin Newsom. He said when he saw early polling, I don't know what state I'm living in. So, look, the state we're living in, Gavin, is the one that you created.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
You're the one who gave us these policies. You're the one who gave us Prop 47. You're the one who gave us zero bail. You're the one who allowed the Democratic Party in California to be taken over by Soros DAs. You've never resisted these policies. Now you have a choice. You can see where the people are at. Over 70% of California wants a change.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I'd say on the rest of the country, if it's 70% California, 90% of the United States wants as opposed to these soft on crime policies. If you ever have aspirations to be anything more than governor of California, you better get on the right side of this issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
By the way, that name, just enjoy that name, Tim Waltz, while you can, because you're never going to hear about that guy again. He's going to be more forgettable than Tim Kaine. They're going to be doing SNL skits on how forgettable he is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Look, I think that What you're seeing in the last election that we just had is the beginning of the end of the salience of this issue. I mean, abortion has been an issue that has deeply fragmented America for 50 years. I mean, the pro-choice versus pro-life movements have been a staple of American politics talking past each other. They were never able to get to any sort of compromise.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
With the repeal of Roe v. Wade, with the Dobbs decision, the issue has now been thrown back to the states, and every state is working it out for themselves. And in most states, what's happening is it's either the pro-choice totally wins or they compromise on some number of weeks. I think that in Florida, going for 24 weeks might have been a little bit too many.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
If they had tried to go back to 15, they probably could have gotten there. They probably could have gotten from 57 to... to 60. But that's what the debate's going to be about now is just basically in red states, it's just going to be about agreeing on a certain number of weeks. Blue states are pretty much going to be pro-choice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And you can see that the federal level, no one wants to touch this anymore. J. Cal, you raised the point during the election cycle, during the campaign, that Dobbs would be crushing for Trump and that women were going to turn out in droves for Harris on the base of this issue. That simply did not happen. If you look at voter turnout in Trump increased his share of the women's vote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
He did lose college educated women. So that subset of call it more progressive. Yeah, sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But if you look at women as a whole, he won more of their votes. So how did Trump inoculate himself on this issue? He made it really clear he was not in favor of a national ban. He said that he favored the exceptions and that it was now up to the states. He basically assured the country, the women of the country, that, again, that abortion would not be banned and that was now a local issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I think the voters of the country, including women, accepted that. And it is now a state issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Listen, even in deep red states like Ohio, the pro-choice forces have won these referenda. It's just a handful of cases, like a very small number, where the pro-life have gotten their way. Again, I think we're at the tail end of this being a salient issue in American politics. I think Trump has ended it as a federal issue, and it's now going state by state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And in most of those states, the pro-choice forces are winning. I think this issue is over, and I think it's over because Republicans know not to touch this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
For prisoners. Every transgender inmate in the prison system would have access.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Tesla just launched the Tesla mezcal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
In that beautiful lightning bottle. I just ordered my bottle of this like two seconds ago while we were doing the show. Uh-oh. Because this sold out in like two hours before. And now the bottles of the original Tesla tequila go for like $2,000 now on eBay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So get yours now if it's still... Smokey Moscow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
We're both going to be sold out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
A little bit. A little bit. A little bit. Well, first of all, Vinod should realize we're not MAGA extremists or extremists of any sort because he's at all in Summit last year. He was great. Yeah, we like what he had to say. Productive. And I certainly don't dispute his expertise and track record in tech. But in addition to that, then he's saying that we're not based in Silicon Valley.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, look, I agree with you guys that this is just too soon to be opening these investigations. It's true that OpenAI and NVIDIA have leads in their respective markets, but that's all it is at this point. It's way too early in the development of these markets to say that these are clearly monopolists. There's still a lot of competition going on. If a few years from now,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
NVIDIA still has whatever, 85%, 90% market share, and no one's even close to catching up. Then maybe you consider it a monopolist. Same thing with open AI. But it just seems very early to be rushing into investigations of these companies. I mean, the AI market is what, 18 months old, two years old maybe at most? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Yeah. So it's just very early to be doing this. Look, I think this is of a piece with... Remember that executive order or whatever that... Remember when the White House issued that 100-page-plus... executive order on AI regulation, we covered it on the show. And we also thought that was too soon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And we thought that if the internet had been regulated in that way in, you know, circa 1995 or 1997, it never would have blossomed the way that it did. You know, you want to give these markets some time to play out before you bring down the heavy hand of regulation on them. So it just seems to me like the administration is getting carried away here with this desire to regulate this new space.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I mean, frankly, it's of a piece with, I would say, an innovation hostile agenda. You also have the attacks on crypto. You just had Biden veto a bill that would have finally given crypto a regulatory framework in the US. It passed with 60 votes in the Senate, including Democrats like Chuck Schumer. And it still wasn't good enough.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Oh, and it was based on a framework, I think that came from the SEC. But Biden is basically in the Elizabeth Warren camp that he's going to give no quarter to crypto. So you've got hostility to AI. You've got hostility to crypto. You've got hostility to M&A. No one can get an M&A deal through right now. You put all these things together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Plus, you've got hostility to options as compensation in terms of the 25% unrealized gains tax. You add up all these things, and again, I think this is an agenda that does not benefit Silicon Valley at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
We're not from Silicon Valley. We've all been here for decades. And then he doubled down on that in a tweet. So that's a bizarre statement. Maybe he thinks he gets to define people in or out of Silicon Valley. I don't really understand it. But to be frank, this is one of a series of statements that he's made recently that I can only – call insulting and childish.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's like he's doing everything he can to basically alienate Silicon Valley.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, there's a lot of conspiracy theorists online who agree with you. A lot of tinfoil hat speculation that he's going to get switcheroo. Hot swap. But look, I mean, I think you make the correct point, which is, you know, I didn't really think about it this way, but you're right. Biden is the decel candidate. And nobody wants that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Also, Trump has shown a learning curve where he recently has been saying positive things about crypto. Yeah. And he's always, I think, been more pro-economic growth. He was a real estate developer from the private sector. He actually understands the economy. So there's no question that he would be more pro-innovation, much more pro-innovation than Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And to your point about this is one of the reasons why people are coming to the fundraiser, I had someone from the campaign said something very interesting to me. She said that we've never seen this many new donors at an event before. So we're turning out the new donors for this reason. And we're not gonna be intimidated by people calling us names. It's like, look, in any normal election,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
people in an industry would vote for the candidate who they see as most aligned with what is good for them, their families, their industry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
First, he had this tweet that he said that Trump supporters were lacking in empathy and caring. Then he had another tweet where he said that Trump supporters weren't teaching good values to their kids. This caused Sean McGuire, who's a partner at Sequoia, to quote tweet him saying that, I think that I'd rather raise my kids to grow up to take after Ivanka Trump than Hunter Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
People want jobs and prosperity. From your lips to God's ears. Do the hot swap. I mean. I don't really have a lot more to say.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, I just think that his point is that people shouldn't be forced to buy EVs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I mean, I don't think he's against them per se. I think he's against people being forced.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Look, I think that what the new administration, hopefully, or what Trump should propose is effectively a modus vivendi with big tech, where the point is that if you stop censoring our people, if you stop censoring conservatives, if you restore the civil liberties of the average American to say what they want online, to...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
basically bank online, to stop essentially deplatforming and censoring people, then we will let you innovate. We'll let you do M&A. We'll let you get back to business. That basically is the basis for a peace agreement between big tech and the Republican Party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And that got something like 20,000 likes, and it was one of those brutal ratios I've ever seen on a tweet. So in any event, I mean, this is just one in a series of partisan tweets. And look, I think you can take whatever position you want on a political candidate. I can understand if he doesn't like Trump. A lot of people don't. He's raising money for Biden. That's fine. Doesn't bother me at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
No, I don't see any manipulation there. Like Jamal said, he's just posting a meme. Not guilty. Not guilty. What I see in that clip is Jim Cramer trying to stir up an SEC investigation of Keith Gill. For what? I mean, what exactly has he done here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Right, exactly. That's not an issue at all. But what I do take offense at is labeling millions and millions of ordinary Americans as somehow lacking in empathy, lacking in caring, not being good parents, because you don't like their support for Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Right. If he was one of those apex predators on Wall Street, if he was one of those major hedge funds that donates a lot of money to the political elite, in other words, if he was a well-connected political player, I doubt anyone would be asking these questions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think that that is a statement that, frankly... reeks of being cocooned in an elite bubble for way too long. And let me just explain. If you look at where Trump's support is strongest, it's really in middle America, in sort of the heartland of America of what- Basically, the part of America that Coastal at least dismissively refer to as flyover country. Sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So when's the right time to put a short on this company?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Melvin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
They bid up the stock to levels that realistically it's not worth that much. Disconnected from reality. It basically creates a short squeeze. So the stock flies up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Then the hedge funds know it's overvalued. So they basically put new shorts on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And then they do the next short squeeze.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And you did it in two minutes. I mean, anybody can look at your analysis and see.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think there's a big difference. Well, because we need a stock market. We need the ability for companies to go public. It just so happens that you can get this weird effect where some stocks can become meme stocks. But that doesn't mean you want to design the entire... system of securities laws around one or two meme stocks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The fact of the matter is that investors are sufficiently protected by robust disclosure requirements that apparently GameStop has followed. All that information is out there. You basically dismantled the company in like two minutes. So anyone watching this show has all the information they need not to buy this stock at 190 times earnings, okay, if they choose to follow that information.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And it's a lot of the industrial Midwest. And frankly, that part of the country has not had the same type of economic experience that we've had in Silicon Valley. Of course. They have not been beneficiaries of globalization.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Are we doubling down, Sax? What are we doing?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
That's a double down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
That's a double down. That's a double down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Definitely double down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
That's some serious degeneracy. It looks so fun though.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
There's only one a day? Oh, my God.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, yeah, look, if you're in one of the handful of export industries in America, and I'm talking about if you're in Hollywood or you're in big finance or you're in software, then globalization has been great for you because it has created huge global markets for our products. However, if you're in an industry that has to compete with global exports, then it's been very bad with you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Did not, did not know that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think there's a particular dealer they've got. They do. It's like in the bullpen. The blank cooler.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And blue collar workers have been hurt, labor's been hurt, people who work with their hands have been hurt. They have not benefited in the same way from the system that we've had in this country for the last 30 years. So you can understand why they would not be so enchanted with elite thinking.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Oh my God, we should get him to play a special all-in hand and let him run up our capital.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think to then label those people as lacking in caring or empathy or not being good parents because they haven't had the same economic ride that you've had for the last 30 years. It's a blind spot. You are the one who is fighting a legal battle to kick some of those people, the public, off a public beach.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
kick the public off of the public beach in front of your beach house. And then you're saying they're the ones lacking in empathy. Dude, look in the mirror.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, we kind of predicted that something like this could or should happen. We said that the big win for Apple in AI would be to make Siri actually work based on an LLM. Because Siri just, you know, its understanding of language historically has not been great. And that's really limited the usefulness of it. Imagine if Siri worked with the conversational abilities of ChatGPT 4.0.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
If it had that level of semantic understanding, if it could talk to you the way that 4.0 can talk to you, that would make Siri really powerful. And for me, Siri is a feature I've turned off because it's so annoying. Oh, it sucks, right? It never works.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
If you give it the power of the best open AI model and then the speed of running it natively on the iPhone, I don't know what they're going to do about that, but Presumably, there are things they can do to speed it up. And then you give it access to the internal APIs you're using to control apps. That could be really powerful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It could be an agent that you can just tell it to do things and not just ask the weather and the time and set alarms.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
One is 45 and one is 47. What? Here we go. Oh, it's karma. Do you know the significance of that? Of course.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's a great product, and if you sweat like a pig at night like J-Cal, it's particularly good for you. It'll keep you cool.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
That's a good point. Larry Summers spoke at the same conference that Vinod did.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Yeah, we've offered the exact same thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, you still care what they think, J. Cal. That's the problem. So they can get to you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
You can ask me. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Non-stop. You're ruining it, J. Cal. You're just ruining it right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
What people haven't figured out yet is cancel culture is over. Virtue signaling is over.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's off-trend, not on-trend. And the people who are still tweeting these blanket statements and they're trying to demonize the entire other side with unfactual, unfounded potshots are just making fools of themselves. And you can see that in the reaction on X. All right, let's move on. We have some breaking news here. Oh, no. Just to put things on a happier note.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
I mean, what else is there to say? Eggplant emoji. Yeah, this is the eggplant emoji. It's what we needed. If you zoom out on what Doge is doing, I think the best way to describe it is zero-based budgeting. And in organizations that go through zero-based budgeting, you do a cycle, typically annually, where you
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
You take all of your op-ex, all of your expenses and running a company or running an organization down to the studs. You take it down to zero and you rebuild it up and you say, what are we trying to achieve this year from first principles? Based on that set of objectives, those goals, what do we need to do? What's the minimal expense we need to run?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
You don't start with last year's numbers and say, what else do we need to do? And start to add on top of that. You really do a hard level, high degree of scrutiny on every dollar moving out. And that's what Doge is effectively doing. They're doing a zero-based budgeting on the federal government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
They're looking at every line item and they're asking the fundamental question, which I don't think we talk about in the public discourse enough, which is what is the essential role of government? And there is a great debate to be had around that point. Should government be providing humanitarian aid in international markets? That's a good debate to be had.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Should the government be providing security to nations that can't provide security for themselves? Does the US government have a role in that? Should the government be providing loans for people to go to universities? Should the government be providing loans for people to buy homes that are overpriced? and et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
And as we start to ask the questions of how we're spending money, I think it ends up leading to the most important questions, which is what is the essential role of government, which I think is the debate that needs to be had in order for the democracy to last. So I'm very happy to see the effort of Doge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
What's awesome is a lot of the recommendations he shared is becoming policy, it seems, for the Trump administration. Elon and Besant and others in the administration have echoed trying to get government deficit below 3% of GDP. That seems to be the economic magical number. And if you can do that, rates drop. I think that's resonated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
And I think that it's the beginning of what I hope will be kind of a long-term process of asking the fundamental questions about essential government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
And it's the reason he has- Like it all goes through treasury, Antonio? Or like, can you just explain that to us?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
It was great to have him publish that a couple of weeks ago, talk with us about it. It's great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Do you think there are individuals that have made like millions or billions of dollars from missed payments overseas? Like is this kind of what's gone on in the missing money in Ukraine, do you think? Like it's kind of found its way to the wrong places?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
There's like a podcast studio actually in the EOB.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Yeah, no, you're right. I have to wear a suit and tie every day. I was just listening on your conversation about Doge. Jacob, I'm surprised that you never figured out a way to get involved in this USA. I mean, everybody's on the take except you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Let me up level this for a second. OK, so we knew the U.S. government runs a two trillion dollar deficit every year. We're in debt almost 40 trillion dollars. And we also knew that any time anyone tries to cut anything in Washington, the whole city screams bloody murder. OK, so the question is just why? Well, now we know the money is all going to them. It's like round tripping to them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
New York Times, getting paid. Politico, getting paid. Bill Kristol, perennial warmonger, getting paid. Ukraine, getting paid. Like 11 out of 12 publications in Ukraine, getting paid.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Viktor Orban, who's the prime minister of Hungary, was saying that he's very popular in Hungary. His political opposition, funded by USAID. In Poland, the left-wing political opposition funded by USAID and on and on and on it goes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
BBC. BBC.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
You wonder why everyone in the UK.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
I couldn't believe that BBC is getting paid.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Every left-wing organization in the world seems to be getting paid by this slush fund at USAID, which disperses about $50 billion a year. That's a billion dollars a week. That's actually a lot of money. And so it makes you wonder, the left in general tries to portray itself as a movement of the people, that it's grassroots. This is the exact opposite. This is AstroTurf.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
This is basically money coming from the top down out of Washington to fund all of these groups, maybe not even in the United States, like all over the world. So it makes you wonder, what is the real level of local support for these left-wing policies all over the world?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Well, the plan was really spelled out by President Trump in his week one EO on crypto, and it's all spelled out in there. The principles, the administration on crypto, the president said he wants to support the responsible use and growth of digital assets and blockchains across every sector of the economy. So the principles are all there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
And yesterday I was invited up to Capitol Hill to meet with the chairman of the important committees that will be, that basically govern crypto. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
I think one of the things the government sucks at is capitalism. So I wouldn't make capitalism the mandate of a sovereign wealth fund. Certainly not when we have $40 trillion of federal debt. It doesn't make economic sense. Our cost of capital is 5%. That's how much the interest is on this. 10 to 30 year debt right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
So it's very hard to actually make real risk adjusted returns when our cost of capital is so high. So I don't think the mandate should be, hey, let's put a bunch of capital in a pool, go and invest it and try and make money for the United States. That seems silly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
But my point about the government being really bad at capitalism is that the United States government owns and has access to and will acquire through other means significant assets and resources that should be monetized in a smarter way. And so I would kind of think about the sovereign wealth fund as being more of a strategic vehicle for monetization of high value government assets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
So for example, if Trump does actually negotiate a 50% equity position in TikTok U.S., that needs to sit somewhere. It should not sit in the department of whatever. It should sit with a capitalist manager that then ultimately makes the decision on when and how to monetize that asset, return that cash to the treasury and pay down the debt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Similarly, the US has large amounts of land, has access to other large assets that get transferred in seizures, et cetera, et cetera. So, you know, I don't know if you guys remember all this, but there was like Bitcoin seizures that have happened over the years. is the government has cracked down on criminal enterprises, then the government owns this Bitcoin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Do you think the smartest people are making the decisions on where and how to sell down that Bitcoin? I guarantee you not. I would much rather have a capitalist making that decision.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
So I would view the sovereign wealth fund being less about raised capital from other means in the government, which effectively means borrowing money through treasuries because of the debt level we have and trying to invest it. And much more being about, okay, what strategic assets can the US government monetize and use this as the mechanism for doing that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
And then ultimately, I think the objective should be to return that capital. I do think there's also an opportunity for managing Social Security in a smarter way. So Social Security is functionally going to be bankrupt in eight years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
The way the trust is set up, the cash that's there, the assets that are there, and the demand on Social Security, given the aging population and the rising payouts every year. So one of the other ways to think about this is what are the long-term debt obligations, which is ultimately the point of these sovereign wealth funds. And can they be invested in a smarter way?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Why is the Social Security entities ultimately owning, you know, 3% yielding bonds when they could be owning interest in equities? So I would kind of think about that strategic pool of capital being managed by this as well, and less about the mandate of go be a capitalist investor for the United States, raise money and make money. I think leave that to the markets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
But when it comes to strategic assets, I think this could be a good vehicle for
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
It got sold off. Yeah, I think they sold that off. They sold it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
But the DOJ sells these. So who do you think of the DOJ as making the Bitcoin market decisions? And is that the right person to be monetizing these assets?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Which judge was it? Federal judge?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
The salt deduction is coming back. Is that right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
I would argue Google's probably been the most frugal, thoughtful, and well-managed computing infrastructure investor of all time. You know, the 98 to 2005 era at Google, it was all about just cheap throwaway racks. That was the big advantage they had is they weren't using the expensive Oracle servers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
And they had a two to three year kind of depreciation timeline on those, but they were super cheap. And so the ROIC was quite good. Then they got into energy efficiency, which they realized was a big driving cost. They started to build systems that were more energy efficient. As a result, they lasted longer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
And then their depreciation schedule moved up to three to four years, meaning they could kind of write down the value of the servers over three to four years. And then from 2010 to 2015 era, their hardware system for cloud allowed them to kind of extend through repurposing the utilization, and they increased their depreciation to four to five years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
And then in 2021, I don't know if you guys remember this, they made this kind of big change to their depreciation schedule on... data center infrastructure to six years. So when they invest CapEx in a data center, they would write down the servers over a six-year cycle because of AI optimization on maintenance. So they started using AI just for internal management of the infrastructure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
So I would view the $75 billion CapEx actually as a very positive signal for the company. I think that it means that they have a really strong line of sight on how they're going to have full utilization and great return on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
If you do the math, ROIC math on this, $75 billion, assume a 20% ROIC, you've got to be generating, call it roughly an incremental $15 billion of profit a year, plus the amortization of the 75 billion. So take the 75 billion, divide it by six, That's 12 billion plus 15 billion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
So basically they would need to make an incremental 27 billion of operating profit a year on the 75 billion for this to meet their ROIC performance. That doesn't seem crazy because that's just under 20% of their annual operating profit. This is a very kind of, I think, important point, which is Google doesn't just do this to build out AI in the future.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
They have a really strong line of sight on how this can kind of increment. And you don't have a huge hurdle for them for this to pay back. So I don't know. I would kind of, to Antonio's point, I'd view this as a positive. I think if you use their historical ability to manage infrastructure and make predictions on investments as an indicator of the future, this is a strong and positive indicator.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
And I do think that for all the naysayers out there that think that search is going to evolve to chat, You could look at this as being a really important proof point that Google has the confidence that they're going to be able to move from search to chat. And as Chamath points out, they've got great performative models. And I would view this more of as a positive than a negative.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
If they were under-investing, I would be worried that they didn't know where to invest. But to see them make this degree of investment highlights the confidence in the strategy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Venture capitalist.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Look at this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
What a thirst trap. Now you guys are going to find photos of Antonio and I. We're going to throw them all up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Well, sure. I mean, look, the whole ecosystem at Silicon Valley exists to help make founders successful. I mean, I was a founder myself. Now I'm an investor. There's also talent who don't found companies themselves but want to join them. The whole thing is organized to make founders successful. And the whole idea that people are out to get the founder, I mean, this is a really antiquated idea.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
There was some truth to it in the 1990s. By 2002 or 2003, when Peter Thiel created Founders Fund, he called it that to emphasize that founders should be in charge. I'd say by the mid to late 2000s, no one really disagreed with that anymore. Yeah. So this whole idea that like people are out to get founders rather than make them successful is antiquated by at least 15 years, I would say.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah. I mean, look, there was some truth to it, I would say, in the 1990s. There was a prevailing view in Silicon Valley 30 years ago that once the company got to a certain level of size, you hire a professional manager. Subsequent to that, people figured out that the best performing companies are indeed the founder-led companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
companies, the ones that keep the founder engaged for a long period of time, they tend to build the most value. Everybody understands that everyone wants the founder to be successful. The question is, how do you make this founder successful?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And I think there is a perverse dynamic where if you teach the founder that, hey, you're always right, and everybody else is a liar and a faker, then that can create a distortion effect where founders don't feel the need to level up. We all want the founder to level up. I mean, I would always rather invest in the founder who has vision over some professional manager, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You want the visionary to succeed, but you need them to level up and learn, you know, just basic management over time. And if you're teaching them that, hey, founder's always right, there's less incentive to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, everyone has to figure this out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, look, Ryan has been right before. He's been right in the past. But in this case, it looks like he's clearly over his skis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And if the reporting is correct, it looks like he's trying to drum up interest in a financing round by representing things that aren't true or haven't happened yet, saying that certain investors are important and those investors are coming out and saying that they're not. The question I think that's relevant and that relates back to our previous topic is this founder mode.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I mean, what makes this not founder mode? And I think that this is where it'd be helpful to have a little bit more substance and not just a branding exercise. Let me give you a more mundane example. I was in a board meeting the other day. And I commented to the team on how they had gotten their burn down substantially since the last board meeting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And somebody joked, one of the founders said founder mode, and it was kind of a joke. Okay, great. But then it got me thinking, what if in this board meeting, it had gone the opposite way and the founders had taken the position, you know what, we're not going to try and cut burn.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
We're going to put the pedal to the metal and accelerate the business and spend a lot more because somehow it's going to get us to the next funding round faster. Wouldn't that have been Founder Mode 2?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So when you start branding these concepts without putting any substance behind them, and quite frankly, you've never been an operator yourself, you've never actually created a unicorn company, but you're representing yourself as a unicorn whisperer, like you're a guru in something you've never really done before,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
then it just allows people who want to justify bad behavior to basically get away with doing whatever they want. And that's what you're seeing with founder mode now, Jake. The reason why that joke is funny, you're doing your Tony Montana bit, is because you can justify any bad behavior as founder mode.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And I think that's what all the memes are about right now, is that founder mode's become a joke because there's no substance to it and it allows you to justify anything a founder wants to do. And I think a more honest way to approach this would be to define here are the actual behaviors that make a founder successful, including when a founder is wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, to be frank, there's a certain kind of con man who represents themselves as a guru, even though they've never done the thing that they pretend to have done. And yeah, and in this case, frankly, you've got someone promoting concepts about operating. when they've never done that before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
They've never scaled a unicorn company, yet they're pretending to be a unicorn whisperer who's telling founders how to behave. And the question you need to ask, is this, at the end of the day, helpful or not? I mean, we all want to exalt and celebrate founders.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Exactly, but we all want to win. And, you know, James Madison said that, you know, men are not angels. What do you do about those cases? Rare. I think they're pretty rare where the founder is just wrong about something. Where they're like representing that investors are going to do something that they're not going to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Or Elizabeth Holmes represents that she's got a product that she doesn't have. Or you have a founder breaking a regulatory requirement that actually is necessary that they comply with. What do you do in all those cases? You actually need to have some objective standard of behavior that's not just, oh, founder is always right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Traditional managers are always wrong because that's just not nuanced enough to account for what it's actually going to take to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah. I mean, in my experience, the founders that are highly successful are the ones that are hands-on. They've got a strong vision and they pursue it and they're constantly learning and leveling up. And they're going to learn wherever they can. They are going to learn from other founders. They're going to learn from executives they may have hired who maybe do have more traditional background.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
They're going to figure out what works for them and they're going to discard the parts that don't work for them. And they're going to double down on the parts that do, and the end result is going to be a style that works for them. And there's not a one size fits all to that, as we've seen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Right. And just I think the turning point was when Peter started Founders Fund. But that was over 20 years ago. In other words, Peter realized that that old approach in the 90s of bringing in the professional management had run its course and that we needed to help founders level up and stay in the seat for as long as possible. That was 22 years ago that he created that firm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So we're like decades into this, and that's what kind of feels anachronistic about this whole discussion is it's almost like we're pretending like we're still in a world in which founders aren't celebrated and exalted. It's quite the contrary. They can do almost anything. And the question is, how do you help them level up?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And at some point, if you're constantly just saying that, well, founders know everything, founders always right, is that actually helping them? Or is it actually reinforcing a mentality that, oh, I don't really have to learn anything? Because all the great founders have been learning machines.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
But if they had been told throughout that you're always right, don't worry about it, then they may not have learned the same way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Oh, wow. Founder mode. If he founder modes, I'm in a founder mode. I got a founder mode, too. Where's J. Cal?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Megyn Kelly. The phenomenal Megyn Kelly. Didn't she call you a prick, J. Cal?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I don't agree. I have a very different opinion on this than you guys do. And I always have. Well, first of all, let me just speak to the the legal precedent here. Last year, there were two Supreme Court decisions addressing this very issue of whether algorithms basically obviated 230 protection. And the court found that they didn't. There were a couple of cases involving
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
users who basically went down a rabbit hole of like terrorist videos and got recruited by ISIS. Remember this? Yes. And they were sued by the families of victims, or at least the social networks were. And the argument was that they basically had been recruited into ISIS and committed the terrorism because of the algorithms and the social networks were liable for that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Supreme Court found that they weren't, which is just to say that algorithms were not treated differently than if the content had been on a regular feed, just a chronological feed. And what Section 230 says is that you can only hold the user liable. We're going to treat social networks as distributors, not publishers, for the purpose of user-generated content.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I've long held the view that if you want to make online platforms liable as publishers for every piece of user-generated content, then you're going to have very little free speech left. Because I just think that corporate risk aversion is going to force these guys to become even more censorious than they already are.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Every piece of content that could potentially lead to a lawsuit is going to get shut down. And I think that the net effect of that will be much more negative. Now, to the argument about aren't algorithms just the new editors, I don't think so. I think there's a fundamental difference between what an editor does and what an algorithm does.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
If you look at an editorial page of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, it has a very specific point of view that it's promoting. In fact, sometimes you can't tell the op-ed page from the news page because it seems like that publication is so biased in favor of one point of view or another. An algorithm isn't supposed to do that. An algorithm is supposed to give you more of what you want.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And so therefore, if you are pro-Trump, you'll see more pro-Trump content. If you're pro-Kamala Harris, you'll see more Harris content. In other words, X or whatever the platform is, isn't supposed to be taking an editorial position on whether it supports Trump or Harris, but rather is giving you more of what you want. Elon recently spoke to this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
He had a tweet recently where he talked about, hey, people are coming to him saying, hey, I'm seeing all these like offensive things in my feed. Why is this? Well, it turns out that they had been sharing those posts that were offensive to them. And so they were seeing more of them. And that's a really good example of how the algorithm just gives you more of what you're interacting with.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So don't interact with outrage porn. If you don't want to be outraged, stop interacting with outrage porn and you'll see less of it. I just think that is fundamentally different than having an editorial point of view. X does not have an editorial point of view that it wants you to see more of that outrage. It's simply the user is making clicks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And, you know, clicking a share button in a way that it interprets it to be saying, oh, this user wants more of that content. Yes. And so this is why I don't think that all of a sudden Section 230 protection should be voided. I just think it's a fundamentally different thing than what a publisher does.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think there is a relatively easy solve, which is you could simply open source the algorithm like X has done. So we can see, is it messing with your mind or not? Is it actually biased? Are they actually inserting editorial opinions into the algorithm? And so if you open source it, people can see what it's doing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I actually, I hear this point of view a lot that social media is only preying on negative emotions. That argument is made a lot by people who want to regulate it more and they want more censorship and that's why they're making that kind of argument. I don't think that the algorithm is only reacting to outrage or incitement. I think quite the contrary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
What I've seen on my X feed is that it's showing me more stuff that I like. And I'm, that's right. I mean, the algorithm has gotten so good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And maybe 10 year olds shouldn't be allowed to use TikTok without any supervision. Maybe that's a better answer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I will agree with that to some degree that I waste way too much time using X. But I mean, I just do it to stay up on current events so I can do this pod.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
If I didn't have this pod, maybe I could just stop using it. That'd be great. I'd love to have that time back and just read more books.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You have lost your mind.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
No, you need a detox. Anyone who disagrees with you is on Putin's payroll now. What's wrong with you? My friend, Comrade Sachs. You're like the reincarnation of Joe McCartney.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You're the one with Russia on the brain.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Who would have predicted there's going to be another Russiagate hoax just in time for the election? You did. You did.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
There's a lot of people who started with Trump derangement syndrome, and then they held Putin responsible for Trump getting elected. So the TDS became PDS, and they got Putin derangement syndrome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think this whole story is such a waste of time. We shouldn't even waste time on it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
What pressure techniques?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You do have a horse in the race. You've believed in the Russiagate hoax for many years, and you want to basically try and restart that whole thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
They get Democratic people. That's been my story from the beginning. You've changed your story a little bit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
That's Putin's goal. So I think the place to start is with asking the question, who is Lauren Chen and what is Tenet Media and what has been their objective or what's their agenda? Yeah. And their agenda now for months has been what's called division grifting inside the conservative movement. Lauren Chen's been putting out a lot of tweets explaining to people that they should vote against Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Wait, $350,000 just for startups whose founders come to our summit?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
She's been saying that he has gone soft on issues like abortion. She's been pushing a very tough pro-life message. She's been promoting a, I'd say, strange and almost fanatical idea that we should repeal the 19th Amendment, which... gave women the right to vote. No one in the conservative movement seriously thinks this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And because of these positions, she was already being called out by people like Ashley St. Clair and Mike Cernovich, who said something's not right here. This seems like an op, like these positions don't really make any sense. It seems like she's just causing mischief. So the place to start here is to recognize that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
If the Russians were paying Tenet Media to put out content, that content was actually anti-Trump. It was trying to get people to vote against Trump. So I think the place you have to start is by asking the question, why would Vladimir Putin want to get Kamala Harris elected? In fact, Putin just came out today and announced his endorsement of Kamala Harris.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So perhaps the Russians have an agenda to vote. get Harris elected. I could see why. She is the much weaker candidate. She's afraid to take questions on the tarmac. Trump is strong. He's authoritative. And I could see why they might prefer to have a President Harris than a President Trump. Let me just stop there and get your reaction to that, J. Kel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Total, across all the founders who are at the summit. No, no, no, per business. Per business, oh my gosh.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think that this is all wildly overstated, but to the extent we're going to deal with it at all, I think it's really interesting how when the Russian operation benefits Kamala Harris, nobody accuses her of collusion or being a puppet of Russia. They just say it's about sowing division. When did that happen? You just did that right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I'm just saying that with tenant media, it's benefiting her. I just explained how.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
What I'm saying is there's a double standard. There's a double standard in the coverage here and how it's interpreted. When the op, when the alleged op benefits Harris, it has nothing to do with Harris. When the alleged op benefits Trump, Trump must be a Russian agent, must be a Russian puppet. There must have been collusion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And you were among the forefront of people saying that Trump himself was compromised.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Look, J. Cal, this is the third straight election in America in which we've been led to believe that there is essentially massive Russian interference in our election. But I think we should ask, what did we learn since the last two elections? In 2016, okay, we had the Steele dossier. which hatched the whole Russiagate hoax.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
We subsequently found out that Hillary's campaign created the Steele dossier, and then that was taken up by the deep state. They basically did a investigation of the Trump campaign. They went to the FISA court. They lied to the FISA court. And we had a two-year independent counsel investigation based on a piece of opposition research that turned out to be completely phony.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
But we heard every day on cable news for years that the Russians had somehow interfered in that election. Never proven. In 2020, we heard that the Russians again were interfering because you had those 51 security state operatives say that Hunter Biden's laptop was Russian disinformation. That turned out to be a total lie. The laptop was authentic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
That was just a made-up story that the Russians were involved. After that, let's not forget, there was NewsGuard and Hamilton 68, which were two bogus media watchdog groups that were deep state ops that were designed to get conservative content censored as Russian disinformation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So now, after all of these ops in which it was alleged that the Russians interfered in our elections and those stories turned out to be completely bogus, we now have this new one about Tenant Media. And I don't know the truth of this story. I can't say one way or another whether it's accurate or not. But what I've learned is not to take these things at face value.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And if we are to take it at face value, tenant media was working against Trump's interests. So apparently the Russians don't want Trump to win the presidential election. They want Kamala Harris.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I don't know what the point of bringing up all these investigations are when you said the most important thing, which is you do not believe that Trump was a Russian agent, despite the fact that for years, that's what Democrats maintained.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think we shouldn't fall for Hamilton 68. I think we shouldn't have fallen for NewsGuard. I think we shouldn't have fallen for the Steele dossier. I think we shouldn't fall for the Russiagate hoax, J. Cal. Stop falling for all these Russia hoaxes. We shouldn't fall for anything. I agree.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah. I mean, who's going to stop me?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
trying to scalp the remaining tickets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
We're going to see a couple of Calcanis brothers on the sidewalk outside the conference holding a sign. You know, tickets available.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Need one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
She's not thinking from first principles. Are you kidding? She's reading from a teleprompter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
She's a candidate for the presidency of the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I'm trying to have something about substance. Jason, it's a substance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Okay, let me tell you what's really going on here. Okay, tell us all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
The longtime Democratic pundit Roy Tashara just had a piece out called Vince Lombardi Democrats, where he quoted Vince Lombardi saying, winning isn't everything, it's the only thing. And so obviously what's happening now is that Kamala Harris will say whatever she needs in order to win. But the question that voters should be asking, who is this person really?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Because obviously what she's going to do once you give her the keys to the government is going to be different than whatever she's saying right now. And we do have a lot of background on this person. She came up through the San Francisco political machine. She was a product of the progressive movement. Pelosi machine in San Francisco. She then rose to the Senate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
She was voted by GovTrack as the most liberal member of the Senate. And just a few weeks ago, when she first announced her economic proposals, they were all this super far left stuff like the unrealized gains tax and a 44% cap gains rate. So that's where her instincts were. That was what was in the Biden-Harris budget. That was in her campaign platform.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And that was in her economic policy speeches. And then what happened is there was a huge negative reaction to all of that. So now she's changing her talking points. But it's obvious what's going on. She's going to say whatever is necessary to win the election. But you're a fool and kidding yourself if you think you're going to get something really different after the election.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You're going to get a continuation of the Biden, Harris, Elizabeth Warren economic program that we've had for the last four years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
He's never changed his position. You don't seem to understand how that issue works. He was in favor of returning it to the states. He's been completely consistent on that. And I don't know why you keep bringing it back to that always. Whenever Kamala Harris isn't doing well, it's always about abortion for you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
He didn't just say that. It's always been his position. He's always been a moderate on the issue, J. Cal. Yeah. He's against the national abortion ban. He's always been in favor of returning it to the states. I don't even understand how this is like, you're still talking about this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Okay, they're going to have to cross the state line. You're right. That's an issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I'm not brushing it aside. I'm just stating what the truth of the issue is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Hold on a second. If you want to vote on that issue, that's your right. Go for it. All I ask is that you correctly state Trump's position on that issue, which he stated on our own podcast. Yeah, no, and that's the point I'm bringing up. It's up to the states.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Welcome to 48. Welcome to 48. I think you should stop making a fool of yourself on Twitter. It's getting old.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, I mean, my reaction to it was that this is hardly new. I mean, I remember way back in the PayPal days over 20 years ago, we had a rule that We wouldn't hire MBAs. We had a no MBA hiring rule. And the reason was because we figured out pretty early on that MBAs were bringing more of a traditional management toolkit that seemed less applicable at a startup.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Subsequent to that, obviously, Elon has taken a very hands-on approach at his companies that Walter Isaacson described in his book as demon mode. And so that's been described. Ben Horowitz did a very interesting series of blog posts about management. and addressed the topic of micromanagement years ago. And so he's written extensively about it and put a lot of substance behind it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Ben drew attention to a book by Andy Grove that came out 40 years ago called High Output Management that also addressed this problem in significant detail. And this, to boil it down into a nutshell for you, the way that Grove defines micromanagement
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
this problem is he says that the output of a manager is the output of that person's team and whether that manager is the ceo or a team lead or a vp or what have you the way you again measure their output is just look at the output of their team so therefore You ask what's going to maximize the output of that team or that org.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And obviously, if the CEO tries to do everything and make every decision, probably that's not going to result in the maximum output. Conversely, if you delegate everything, I call it the problem of infinite delegation, where CEO delegates to VP, VP delegates to director, director delegates to manager, manager delegates to the summer intern.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And then all the most important work in the company gets delegated all the way down to the newest, most inexperienced people. That's not going to work either. So again, you're going to have to find the right balance. And again, the way that you figure out what the balance is, is to apply Groves' principle of maximizing the output of the team or the organization.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And it just took out a huge amount of middle management and it didn't seem to harm the performance. Performance got better. And again, you can apply growth's principle. Look at what happens to the aggregate output. So this topic has been addressed at length and I think has been understood for decades.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Maybe the only new thing here is a little bit of branding around founder mode versus manager mode. The problem with that branding is I think it's an overly simplistic and Manichaean view of the world where it kind of fits into really all of the PGSAs and the YCs. model, which is founders always right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And everybody else in the ecosystem, especially traditional managers, they're either liars or fakers. And that basically has been the Manichaean model that Paul Graham's been pumping out for decades.
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Rain Man, David Sackerson.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
Well, I think that there's been huge developments on Ukraine. I mean, the president has said from the outset, I mean, during his campaign that he wanted to bring this war to an end, Charlie. And I think that he's in the process of doing that for the first time in, I think, At least three years since the war began, we had a conversation between an American president and the Russian president.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
I mean, that's the first step in getting to some sort of peace agreement is to actually talk to the other side. You then had conversations between the delegations from the U.S. and from Russia and Saudi Arabia, and they seem to have made substantial progress.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
And I would say that most of all, the thing that I think has been the biggest breakthrough is just that finally this administration has been willing to tell the truth about how this war started because you need to understand that in order to bring it to an end. And what Secretary of Defense Higgs has said and what Stephen Witkoff has said is that it was NATO expansion,
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
that the Russians saw as a provocation. And it was the United States' desire under Joe Biden, their insistence that they had to bring Ukraine into NATO, that was seen as incredibly threatening by the Russians, just the same way that we saw Soviet influence in Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis as incredibly threatening. And the United States back in
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
was it 1962, was willing to go to war to keep the Soviets out of Cuba. And in a similar way, the Russians, they telegraphed in advance that this was a red line for them for decades. And they said they'd be willing to go to war to prevent Ukraine from becoming a member of NATO. And yet the Biden administration insisted on trying to bring this about.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
It was widely underreported, but in the first month of this war that started three years ago, that's cost so many lives, there was a deal that was signed, a draft deal that was signed in Istanbul to end the war. And all it really required was for Ukraine to agree to be a neutral country.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
And if they had been willing to do that, the war would have ended, there would have been no destruction, and Ukraine would have kept its territories in the eastern part of the country. And it was the Biden administration that basically sabotaged that deal. And that's why the war has now raged on for three years. I'd say upwards of a million people have died.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
The country's never going to be the same. And the craziest part of the whole thing is that The Biden administration itself and Jens Stoltenberg, who was the head of NATO, said at the very end of the Biden administration that Ukraine could not join NATO, would not be joining NATO because it was unable to win this war. So this whole conflict was over nothing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
We could have just agreed to the thing that everyone understands now, which is Ukraine is not going to be part of NATO. And this whole thing could have been avoided.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
Yeah, exactly. And this is where I think that we cannot concede the moral aspect of this argument. Those of us who have wanted the United States to avoid getting deeply involved in this war, you know, they call us pro-Russian or anti-Ukrainian. But what we're suggesting would have been the most pro-Ukrainian policy. That's the hundreds of thousands of...
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives would have been saved. Their country wouldn't have been destroyed. They would have held on to all those territories in the east. It would have been better. You know, something like 10 million women and children have also fled the country. They're never coming back. I mean, this country is just never going to be the same.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
And it all could have been avoided if they had just agreed to that Istanbul deal. which was a better deal than anything they're going to get now because they have lost the war. And why did that deal not happen? Because Boris Johnson flew into Kiev and said, we want to challenge Putin, not make a deal with him.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
Alexei Arastovich, who at the time was a member of the Ukrainian peace delegation, who was there in Istanbul, who was there when they signed a draft of the deal, he said the Ukrainian delegation was popping champagne. They were so happy because the war was over. And then it was the Western leaders who came in and said, you can't do this deal because it doesn't fit with our interests.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
And what we want to do is challenge Putin. People like Boris Johnson and Victoria Nuland, they had a delusion. that this war could be used to weaken Russia and then ultimately cause a regime change in Moscow. Remember when President Biden said that this man cannot stay in power? That was their unofficial policy, is they actually thought they would bring Russia to its knees.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
They thought that sanctions would crush Russia's economy. They thought that we could use the Ukrainian military to destroy the Russian military. And all these things would basically finally bring the hated Putin to his knees, and we'd have a palace coup in Moscow, and they would get this big regime change. And it never happened. No part of that happened.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
Instead, what happened is that Ukraine got completely destroyed, and now it's on its last legs. And I think that, look, we could just allow what is going to happen here to take its course. I mean, if President Trump did nothing, then what's going to happen is that eventually Ukrainian lines are going to collapse under severe pressure, and the Russians will just take more of the country.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
But I think that President Trump wants to bring this war to an end. He wants the dying to stop. I truly believe it's a humanitarian interest of President Trump because this was not his war. This was Joe Biden's war. It's Victoria Nuland's war. It's Boris Johnson's war. It was their war. But President Trump wants to stop it because he wants the dying to stop. I think that is a...
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
wholly salutary and humanitarian thing to do and of course what is the reward for that in the mainstream media they basically deride president trump and anyone who speaks on behalf of peace is completely warped that is so well articulated david can you just add on really quick president trump has called zelensky a dictator what is the evidence of that Look, Charlie, dictator is as dictator does.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
Zelensky has banned political opposition parties. He has had – he seized the assets of his political opponents, including a former president of Ukraine. He's basically cracked down on churches and priests and nuns. He's cracked down on the media in order to be – a journalist in Ukraine, you have to basically get a license from the government and tow the party line.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
And I would say that the worst part of the whole thing is that there was an American journalist living in Ukraine named Gonzalo Lira, who was arrested trying to flee the country. And there is a chilling tape by Gonzalo Lira where he posted on social media saying, I'm about to be arrested. If I'm arrested, I will never see the light of day again. Please help me.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
State Department, please come help me. Just let me go. I just want to leave the country. And the Ukrainians could have let him leave. But they didn't. They arrested him, and he was tortured in a dungeon, denied medical care, and ultimately died in Russian captivity. To me, that is completely unacceptable. This man was an American citizen, an American citizen.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
You know, a foreign country, especially one that's a putative ally, should not touch a hair on the head of an American citizen. But to let that man die in prison after being tortured – is completely unacceptable. And as far as I'm concerned, that alone rules out the idea that this is an ally of the United States.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
Well, AI is a new technology. I think it's going to be the most important technology of this decade and this era. You can think of it a little bit like the breakthrough we had in the late 90s with the Internet. I think this could be even more profound. And AI is a dual-use technology, meaning it's got both economic applications and military applications. It's a consumer technology.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
I mean, all of us have now experienced technology
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
you know chat gbt or grok and programs like that where you can ask it questions and it gives you amazing answers soon there'll be agents but then also it's going to be something that will be widely used in businesses and enterprises and then again by the government and the military i think the most important thing for ai is that america win the ai race china is very competitive the launch of deep seek showed that
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
And President Trump declared in his week one EO on AI that we have to win the AI race. America has to be the global leader. And in fact, dominance is the word that he used. And I think that if America falls behind to China, then the ramifications of that will be huge. It would jeopardize our economy and it could make us militarily less powerful than than China.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
And that's not a world we want to live in. So I just think that winning this AI race is absolutely critical. And I'm happy to be working for the president to help make that happen.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
Well, I think on the first part, there's just been a lot of doomerism in the media, and the media always loves to take the most pessimistic view of things and scare people. I think that there could be some job displacement, but I think the productivity gains will be a lot greater. And this will be a tool that ordinary people can use in their work, especially knowledge workers and engineers.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
Again, incomes rise with productivity. So to the extent that we get productivity tools, it basically increases economic growth and makes us wealthier. So I think that the Doomer case here has just been overstated and focused on too much.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
And I think there's a much more pessimistic, sorry, there's a much more optimistic way to look at this, which is that this is going to fuel economic growth for the next decade. And by the way, the United States is something like $36 trillion in debt If we don't have a big economic boom over the next decade, how are we ever going to pay that debt back?
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
I mean, how are we ever going to get out from under this hole? So we need growth. We need productivity, and AI is a tremendous tool for doing that. In terms of this only benefiting a technocratic elite, I don't – you know, this is not the way that technology has evolved throughout history. What you see is, yes – the people who do invent the technology benefit, but so do all the consumers of it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
So do all the businesses that benefit from it downstream. And again, this is just like the creation of the internet or the industrial revolution or the creation of the tractor or something like that. There are going to be benefits that are felt throughout the economy. And I do think it's going to ultimately raise the standard of living for all Americans.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
I completely agree with that. And let me just ask the question, you know, these products have now been on the market for over two years and we're seeing a rapid evolution and how good they are. We see one company leapfrogging in the next and then the next product comes out. But let me ask you a question. Has one person lost their job? Because of AI today, I don't think so.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
They've made everyone a little bit more productive. It's just a phenomenal tool that we can all use in our jobs to do research, to get answers. It's like a better search engine to write research papers, to fact check things. I mean, real fact checking, not the fake kind. And so I just think this is a tool that's going to make all of us better. better.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Our Elites Destroyed Ukraine + Winning the AI Race ft. David Sacks
And again, there's just no evidence whatsoever yet of this causing job loss. And I do agree with what the vice president said there, that fundamentally, in our values, we are pro worker. Yes. And if there is some sort of downside to this, we will adjust, we will make sure that this technology benefits workers, we will center workers.