All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Sat, 24 May 2025
(0:00) Today's topics and bestie intros! (2:49) Bond market chaos, GOP abandons DOGE, Trump's big, beautiful bill passes the House (38:15) Google's big week: AI in search, roadmap to diversifying revenue (46:49) OpenAI acquires Jony Ive's design startup for $6.5B (57:09) AI Diplomacy: Sacks breaks down his trip to the Middle East and the datacenter deals (1:15:25) Science Corner: CRISPR breakthrough! (1:23:02) How increased energy production could solve America's fiscal problems Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.barrons.com/articles/20-year-treasury-bond-auction-bba9d889 https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1925253934794342405 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?comparison=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI%2CINDEXNASDAQ%3A.IXIC&window=5D https://www.pgpf.org/article/moodys-downgraded-its-us-credit-rating-and-warns-that-recent-policy-decisions-will-worsen-fiscal-outlook/ https://x.com/JessicaBRiedl/status/1925257429408756087 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025?tid=1747933765493 https://x.com/chamath/status/1925568992959492156 https://x.com/chamath/status/1925590496103342114 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOG:NASDAQ https://blog.google/products/google-one/google-ai-ultra https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/what-sam-altman-told-openai-about-the-secret-device-hes-making-with-jony-ive-f1384005 https://x.com/BenGeskin/status/1925579528933372198 https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1924817118370951238 https://mcigroup.my/top-news/malaysia-launches-regions-first-sovereign-full-stack-ai-infrastructure
Chapter 1: What are the key issues in the bond market right now?
Well, I think we were all calling on previous podcasts for Google to risk disrupting their dominance in search by moving to more of an AI-based model. And I think they've taken an important step in that direction. They've sort of threaded the needle here between... keeping their old UI and product and then also incorporating the new sort of AI UI. So this is a compromise.
I mean, they're trying to have their cake and eat it too. It ultimately feels a little bit like a transitional move. I doubt that this will be the end point, but given their need to protect their search business while also developing their AI business, this feels like a pretty good compromise, I think. I mean, it certainly shows that they're in the game and they're not going to get
caught totally flat-footed and let the whole world disrupt them while they're trying to figure out AI. I mean, they are responding now. And the market seemed to like it. I think they were up like 5% on this news.
Yeah. And then up again today, Chamatha, you talked about having some design sense and maybe some bravery here. Looks like they're pretty much on the cusp of doing that. The search results in AI look elegant. They look, dare I say, perplexity-like. When you look at them, I would say... I would like to have that as my default, I think, when I'm doing search. What do you think of the product?
We're showing it here again. And what do you think the roadmap will be? I gave one possibility.
Saks is totally right. I think that this is not the destination, but they've taken a really important step. now they have to follow through. We all know what has to happen. So I think we're all just going to debate when it happens. And I think what the market is betting is that it's going to happen in the next 18 months. So what is it exactly?
It's when AI mode becomes the default for a large swath of existing Google users. How will we know that happens? They're probably running A-B tests right now. They're probably gauging behavioral patterns of which kinds of users, what the actual impacts to search are, and what impacts exist to CPCs, to cost per click, which is one of the inventory types that they sell.
But I think this is the beginning of a process. I suspect it'll be done in less than a year. And for a large swath of users, they are going to put AI in the front door. I think that's a fait accompli. I think we're just now debating the mechanics of getting there per how Sax alluded to it. That's a really powerful step. But here's Jason. I think I go back to what they also have to keep in mind.
What you don't want to have when you are going through an innovator's dilemma is to have the competitor be on to the next lily pad while you are figuring out the current lily pad. And the reason I bring this up, and I'm sure we'll talk about this, is it's impressive what Sam Altman is doing right now. at OpenAI.
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Chapter 5: What does increased energy production mean for America's economy?
But what if the AI and robotics revolution plays out in the most optimistic way over the next decade and is massively deflationary and we get basically AI-powered robots expanding the economy massively? You need power for that. I get that. And we need to do power generation for sure. But my point is just what if the new technology provides an answer
to the fiscal situation that's not currently on the table.
So this is my point is Washington's not gonna embrace- I understand, but you're gonna have brownouts and blackouts of average human homes to do that? No, you shouldn't have to make these decisions. Those are dumb trade-offs.
You're not gonna be able to solve the power generation problem in a reconciliation bill.
And I wanna just add my two cents at the end here. Leadership starts at the top. This president acts unilaterally all the time, whether it's immigration, DEI, he has no problem. And this is what he is doing. He's endorsing this bill. He's saying it's big, it's beautiful. He is saying this is historic. I think this is bad leadership. I'll just say it straight out.
He was elected to balance his budget and to have austerity. He's going to put more onto the debt. And we sat here on this very podcast, the four of us, and said this was the most important issue on the world. And Trump is putting gasoline on the fire. I think it's bad leadership. Let's continue on the docket.
I suggest you look at the Constitution because the power of the purse rests with Congress.
He's endorsing this. He's endorsing it. He's not even putting up a fight.
When it comes to immigration, these other areas, the president has far more unilateral power and he's used that every chance he gets. But when it comes to spending, you have to get Congress on board. This is a bill that passed with a one vote margin. I don't know where you think the opportunity is to squeeze out more concessions from Congress. I don't think it's there. He could speak up.
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