David Friedberg
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
debt to spike up to levels that we have not felt since just before the 2008 global financial crisis. To keep the economy growing, the U.S. government's now running a nearly $2 trillion annual deficit, nearly 7% of GDP, while paying over $1 trillion per year in interest alone on just the existing outstanding debt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Well, that's what I want to get to that in a minute, because I want to talk about the relative strength of the United States and how this plays out globally. Firstly, in your book, you describe the big debt cycle following five stages. You call it the sound money stage when net debt levels are low and money is sound and the country is competitive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And then you talk about the debt bubble stage where debt and investment growth are greater than can be serviced from the incomes being produced. And then you call it the top stage, the bubble pops, and the credit and debt and markets contract.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And then this deleveraging stage where the central bank comes in and they start buying all the debt and issuing more cash and the inflation goes up and the value goes down. And then finally, the big debt crisis recedes and we start over again. But you speak about in the top stage, a debt crisis. Can you describe the debt crisis? You know, like, how do we talk, think about the mechanics of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
What is a debt crisis? Where are we in the United States today with respect to facing a debt crisis? And what are the red flags that you look for?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
The Congressional Budget Office, the CBO, projected last week annual budget deficits are expected to be equal to 6.1% of GDP through 2035, which the CBO noted is significantly more than the 3.8% that deficits have averaged over the past 50 years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Well, so are we seeing that in the U.S. today? So the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as of a few months ago. As they've cut interest rates, the market has sold off U.S. bonds rather than buying them, which is normal when rates go down, the price of bonds is supposed to go up. And we are now seeing...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
rates actually climb in the market relative to where they were while the Fed has been cutting rates. Is that a dynamic that's a red flag for you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
The national debt slated to rise by nearly $24 trillion over the next decade, a sum that does not even include the trillions of dollars in additional tax cuts that the current administration may put into place. Is the US headed for bankruptcy? What are the mechanics of the looming crisis ahead? And can we avoid it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
You've got a table in the book where you look at central government debt level to deficit level, across these major markets. So you've got the US, Japan, China, France, Germany, and the UK. And the US is running a deficit, 7% of GDP.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
So the federal government is spending more than it makes at a level that's about 7% of the total size of the economy in the United States, which is the highest of all of these industrialized markets. Second is France at 6%. Third is the UK at 6% as well. And then China at 5%. And then these countries are all approaching 100% debt to GDP. Japan, obviously, is at 215%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
So from a relative perspective, one of the points that I've heard a lot of people make is Everyone's got this problem. Everyone's got rampant spending. Everyone's got rising debt levels. They're increasing their debt levels to pay the interest on their existing debt and to stimulate their economy. The US is the best, strongest currency amongst the group that we just showed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Why would anyone trade out of our currency. I guess from a market perspective, Ray, where else do people go with their worth, their net worth? Where do they transfer their value into if it's not dollars? And doesn't it have to be some denominated currency? It isn't the US ultimately the best.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Maybe you can talk about what these alternatives are, gold, Bitcoin, elsewhere, but is that realistic at scale? Like, is there enough of gold, enough Bitcoin for everyone to transfer all their net worth into those assets versus hold some currency denominated asset. Maybe we can just talk about that dynamic of how do I make the decision about where to store my value? Where do I store my net worth?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
To talk about this, what I consider to be the most important topic in the world at the moment is Ray Dalio, who I consider to be the preeminent thought leader on this matter in 2021, As everyone knows, Ray published The Changing World Order, Why Nations Succeed and Fail. I declared it the book of the year, and I thought it was the most prescient and important thing that everyone should read.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Because during a time of a debt crisis, and I want to get to this in a minute, you talk about the four actions that can be taken, tax or taxation, austerity where governments cut spending, restructuring where the debt gets restructured, and then the central bank buying the debt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Obviously, this notion of taxation has always played a critical role during these moments and assets are seized or taxed in different ways and transferred away. What about commodities and how do commodity markets do non-gold? Is there a difference in commodity markets, hard, soft, et cetera?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
I should go store a bunch of GPU chips in my garage, H100s from NVIDIA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And unfortunately, I feel like many in politics, many in government have largely ignored some of the prescient warnings shared in that book. This week, Ray is releasing a new book called How Countries Go Broke, in which he analyzes and shares his studies on this particular topic. And I'm really excited for Ray to join me here today. Ray, thanks for being here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
I'm a productive asset guy. I like owning businesses that make stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
So in this environment, where do I own that's a productive asset, that's a business that can still see its revenue and its incomes grow as this inflationary effect and this devaluation occurs as we get through a debt crisis like this? what would be the best kind of productive at? Is it a mining business? Is it a commodity trading business? What's the right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Well, so let me just start by asking why you wrote the book, why are you putting it out now, and maybe we can just talk about the timeliness of all this from your point of view.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
The productivity drivers, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Well, so there's no simple answer for the audience on what to buy. But I do think this portfolio point of view, in the book, you actually talk about having 10 to 15 uncorrelated bets at any given time. And I would imagine in your context, truly uncorrelated, whereas most folks buy U.S. equities and think that they're in different sectors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
But obviously, there's a great degree of correlation when you're buying a bunch of U.S. equities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Yeah, that's incredible. That's an incredible fact for folks to take in. So when you adjust for the value of your dollar, equity prices have really taken a hit, even though the market's gone up. And I hear this a lot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
I think this is super important, Ray. I just want to double click on this and then we'll talk about the U.S., but a lot of folks talk about markets going up without taking into account what is the denomination that those markets are measured in, in this case, U.S. dollars.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And when you look at the value of your US dollar and you look at the market going up, even if you bought equities, what you can now turn that dollar into has actually not gotten much stronger. Folks have really taken a hit. And I think this is super important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Yeah, absolutely. Okay, I want to come back to the United States and I want to talk about your point of view on measures that the United States is going to have to take or should take going forward in order to avoid a more cataclysmic debt crisis. In fact, you use this term often, the beautiful deleveraging that's possible when there's a great deal of debt and
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
a country faces a debt crisis, that there are several actions that can be taken together to try and resolve the debt crisis in a way that is least harmful. But I first wanna talk about the measure that you share of risks. So first is you show what you call your risk gauge for US long-term government debt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And so you've got this risk gauge on the long-term and the risk gauge on the short-term for US government debt. On the short term, you say US government debt is a 0% risk gauge. There's no risk in the near term. The economy seems fairly balanced. But over the long term, your risk gauge is 100%. And then you follow that up with an analysis of the central bank.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And you say the central bank, short term, 0% risk gauge, long term, 46% risk gauge, nearly the highest you've seen ever. But maybe you can just say, what's the composition of these risk gauges? And what does this tell us? And then we'll come back to the actions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Thanks for doing it. And the basis of the analyses is your work at Bridgewater and outside of Bridgewater, is that right? You've kind of gathered quite a bit of material together for this book, and you've shown a lot of historical context. Maybe just share a little bit about where the data came from and how you've kind of conducted these studies over what period of time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Let me pull up this chart for you real quick, Ray. So I just want to highlight the CBO projection, right? So this is the U.S. government's debt as a percent of the U.S. government's revenue, which you indicate in your book is more important than debt to GDP. You've got to look at the actual revenue being generated by the government and how much debt they have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And the CBO highlights this expansion to 700%, meaning the government is gonna have a debt level that's seven times the income it's making every year over the next, I believe this is a 10 year chart. And you propose a bunch of actions that can keep it flat over the next 10 years, which is the basis of the book is there's a series of recommendations in the book.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
I just want to kind of voice over again, you highlight that there are four actions. One is increased taxes. So obviously, citizens are going to lose assets and lose income. So there's a loss to the citizens when this happens. Cutting spending or austerity. And there's obviously a loss of services by the government provided to the citizens. So the citizens are going to lose services.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
They're going to lose benefits. a central bank buying the debt, which will typically increase inflation because more money will come to the markets and everything costs more. So that's another form of taxation where the value of your dollar or the value of your assets goes down. And then this kind of restructuring of the debt where, again, the currency gets devalued and everyone loses things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And so I just wanted to kind of walk through that. Maybe you could frame this up for us a little bit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
That's about $900 billion a year. Yeah. Roughly. And that means cutting it, as you point out, by cutting the deficit by more than half. from where it sits?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
I read it this weekend. And I used a highlighter for the first time in a long time, Ray. So there was a lot of great content to pull out of there. I might use AI to reduce it down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
So when the president does a interview the other day and he says, we need to get them to cut interest rates by 1%, and he's speaking about the central bank, he's effectively trying to force the central bank or coerce the central bank to take rate action when if we were to cut spending, I think this is so important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
If the federal government were to cut spending significantly and quickly, the market would naturally react to lower rates. That's right. Okay. I think that is so important for everyone to hear.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And by the way, Ray, the longer we wait, the more interest accumulates because it's at a higher rate, the more the debt accumulates. And ultimately, this is the arithmetic death spiral that you get into. The longer we wait, the more you have to cut in the future to get out of the hole. It's not linear. It's a nonlinear cutting that's needed. So the faster you do it, the less you have to cut.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
I think that is so important. Let me just say that again. For any person in government listening, the faster you cut, the less you have to cut.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
So let's talk politics for a second. Is Doge and the concept of Doge enough, or do we need legislative action here? And then I want to talk about the politics of the legislative action needed, given, like, the election cycles.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Are we better off with Trump as president versus if Biden had won? In this context?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And so I think that's really important because this isn't just an opinion piece you're writing. As an analyst, you're sharing quite a lot of empirical data that's publicly available that anyone can go access. And you're taking a look at that data and saying, this is the pattern. This is the trend that we've seen historically. It has repeated over and over again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
That's what I was going to ask you next. So AI takes off. We lose a lot of jobs. We have a million, five, three million, five million people that become unemployed, that work in call centers, that work on automotive lines, et cetera, et cetera. They lose their jobs. And before the productivity kicks in from AI that creates new markets and new parts of the economy,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
We have a lot of unemployed people and the government representatives, the politicians raise their hands and say, we have to support these people. We have to introduce stimulus. We have to introduce new support programs. And is it not likely the case that with AI coming online, we are going to see a fairly significant demand for public support on this transition that's coming?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
I think that was another epic discussion. People love the interviews. I could hear him talk for hours. Absolutely. We crushed your questions in a minute. We are giving people ground truth data to underwrite your own opinion. What do you guys think? That was fun. Ray, good morning. Good morning. I'm going to start off by sharing a couple stats. Today, the U.S.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
I think you make a really important point at the front of the book. only about 20% of the 750 currency debt markets that have existed since 1700 still remain. And all of them that still remain have devalued through the mechanistic process you described in the book. That's really important to note.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Let me ask you two questions. The first, if we do significant cuts, there will be a lot of job loss. If AI is successful and moves quickly, there will be significant job loss. If there is significant job loss, does that not fuel the rise of socialism in the United States?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
You know, we all think that we have this kind of privileged position in the United States, and the US is different, and this time around is different. But you highlight how so often, Everyone thinks they're in a good place and then the cycle repeats. You speak about, and the primary premise of this is what you call the big debt cycle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Is this a hot civil war? Do people take to the streets? I mean, how does this resolve? Obviously, we've got historical context for social uprising, but what happens in the United States over the next 10 years?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And you highlight that these big debt cycles typically last about 80 years. They're more easily forgotten than the short-term debt cycles, which last about six years on average, plus or minus three years, you say. And we're now 12 and a half cycles of the short-term debt cycle since 1945. So we've kind of been in this big debt cycle in the US for about 80 years at this point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
On that point, Talk about the role that you have seen external conflict play in resolving the fiscal challenges internally. So you talk in your prior book, Changing World Order, about the historical relationship between external conflict as a cycle that seems to follow or flow with this financial cycle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Maybe you can talk a little bit about what's going to happen between the United States and China given the condition in the US today, do we have a higher propensity? When things are difficult at home, folks tend to go to war, war is stimulatory. Is that a driver here? And what's gonna happen functionally with China over the next decade, do you think, in the US?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
But maybe we could start by talking about what the short-term debt cycles are that you highlight make up the long-term debt cycle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
You describe in your book, the difference between how the United States goes to war and how China goes to war. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you speak to the US goes to war head to head, open confrontation, whereas China is much more like a Sun Tzu art of war style. It's a little bit more tricky, a little bit more careful. They never let you know what they're going to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Is that a fair characterization?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
There we are. Well, look, Ray, I feel like I always tell people the kid that stands up at the middle school and says, I'm gonna make the vending machines free wins the presidency of the middle school. And unfortunately in a democratic system, the election process kind of follows a similar pattern. It's very hard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
I watched these hearings this week and I was deeply frustrated when I hear senators say, I got this money for my constituents. I got this, their initiative, their intention. is to stand up and say, I'm gonna get you this. They go into Congress, they get you that money. And over time, government spending swells and there is no incentive to reduce it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And we find ourselves now on the precipice of a really difficult crisis. And I really do hope that politicians find within themselves the leadership to stand up and say, we need to do difficult things because 10 years from now or 20 years from now, if we don't, things are gonna be very bad for all of us and convey that to people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And I really do hope that your message gets to them and that their leadership allows them to stand up and say, we need to make these really difficult changes deeply and quickly in order to preserve the union. and that they can make those changes and we can move forward and continue to build our lives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And so I really appreciate you taking the time to write this book, share this with us, and I really do hope it's heard. I think it's so important. So thank you so much, Ray.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Yeah, well, no, look, I mean, let's not give away the vending machines for a couple of years and, you know, kind of think about keeping the school open for the next generation. But that was great. Thanks, Ray.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
I think it's so important too, Ray. And I spent a lot of time thinking about it and worrying about it. Your message is so clear and important. I think you present it well and write it well. I read your whole book this weekend. I appreciate you putting it all out there. I really do hope that the folks that listen to our show in DC listen to this. I cannot tell you how
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
disappointed I was after I spent the weekend at the inauguration. I met a lot of members of Congress. I met most of the members of the new cabinet. And it's just not there. I'm just frustrated and I'm disheartened by it. So anyway, I think it's important to keep harping on it, though. We're not going to stop and I'll keep talking about it and appreciate your efforts here, too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Really appreciate it, Ray. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
has $36.4 trillion of federal government debt and GDP of $29.1 trillion, giving a debt to GDP ratio of 125%. And this ratio has climbed steadily since the pandemic began in 2020. when the federal government debt was 20 trillion and GDP was just 21 trillion. So since the pandemic, federal government debt has risen by 80% while GDP has climbed 38%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
talk about two things real quick. One is just to provide an analogy for folks watching or listening on what it means to have interest levels be so high relative to one's income. So, you know, the United States this year is expected to service debt with over a trillion dollars of interest payments on the outstanding U.S. Treasury bonds.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And the government's only going to bring in just under $5 trillion of revenue. So nearly a quarter of every dollar that's being collected by the federal government is going out the door just to pay interest on the existing debt. So in order to fund new programs, the government needs to take on new debt. And the folks that are having to issue that cash to the government end up saying, wait, that's
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
pretty risky now. I need a higher interest rate. And over time, that interest rate climbs. And then there's this separate entity called the central bank that comes in and says, well, I'll buy the debt ultimately. To give the government the ability to continue to operate or give the economy the ability to continue to move.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And the central bank, when you say the word monetize, you mean the central bank ends up, when you say monetize the debt, that means they're buying the bonds, they're buying the debt that's being issued in the market. Is that the right way to go?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
So there's a central in the US, it's our Federal Reserve and the US government are the two players here. And the Federal Reserve ultimately would in this model and historically, obviously, during the pandemic. And during 2008, they would go into the market, they would buy bonds by issuing cash that they're making up effectively.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And steady inflation from the large stimulus of money from both central banks and the U.S. government caused the Federal Reserve, which is the U.S. central bank, to raise interest rates, driving up the cost of borrowing. And despite recent efforts to cut interest rates again, markets have traded treasuries down, causing the long-term interest rates of U.S.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Right. And when that money gets printed, it finds its way into the economy and the money supply goes up. And the way I kind of think about it, and you've got a nice image in your book that I really appreciate. Here's a kind of overview of the big debt cycle that you talk about, which is there's small... expansion and contraction waves as debt comes into the market.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Debt should drive productivity, but at some point you accumulate so much debt that you can't drive productivity anymore. And then you effectively have to monetize the debt and everything gets devalued. But as I kind of think about the introduction of money into the economy, the increase in the money supply,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
I always tell people, and everyone screams, oh, the markets are going up, the markets are going up. But I say, the markets are going up in dollar denominated value. And there's more dollars. So, you know, the nominal, meaning that the actual, you know, index might go up, the NASDAQ might go up, the Dow might go up. But if you've got a lot more dollars, a dollar is worth less.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
The real question is, has your purchasing power gone up? Have you actually increased your net worth as the markets go up? And when you do the studies, it turns out that inflation goes up, meaning the cost of everything goes up when you pump money into the system. So of course, it looks like the markets go up. Of course, it looks like asset values go up. But ultimately, if everything's going up,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
your purchasing power goes down. It's almost like I tell people, you have 100 clams and you use seashells and you're using seashells to buy stuff. And then, you know, there's only five things to buy. Now, if you have 500 seashells to buy stuff, the price of the things you're trying to buy goes up because everyone's got more seashells.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Doesn't that ultimately kind of describe what happens as the money supply goes up, the inflation drives the purchasing power down of everything? Yeah. Everyone kind of gets inflated away.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
And the value, the purpose of purchasing power is what matters at the end of the day, what your money's worth, what you can actually buy with it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Right, totally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Totally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Totally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Yep.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Well, to Schwarzenegger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Oh, for president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Or Sam Alton.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
That would be the more notable one, yeah, to exclude, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
There was just so much. It was so impressive to be there. I definitely echo the sentiment about seeing the strength of America represented between the entrepreneurial engine that has driven this country for 250 years and the government that's meant to serve the people. working together to try and take America forward. It was just really inspiring.
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The one thing that was the biggest kind of observation for me, which was a bit of a disappointment, unfortunately, is I feel like Doge and cost-cutting is gonna be a lot harder to realize than folks assume. Nearly everyone I met with who works in government or is entering government had this, if not disdain for Doge,
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a concern that it doesn't really align interests with the political objectives of politicians, that they need to get more stuff for their constituents in order to get reelected, and that they're not going to vote programs away. They're not going to vote themselves out of a job, which is effectively what they would do if they cut programs. In fact, I was watching Brooke Rowland's
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Secretary Ag confirmation hearing this morning. And Mitch O'Connell was given the opportunity to ask her questions. You know what his question was? He said, in the last farm bill, I was able to get $60 million to build an ag research lab at the University of Kentucky, and it hasn't started being built yet. It's been four years. What are you going to do about that?
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This is literally the intention of so many of these conversations if you sit and watch. And then I watched a similar conversation with a senator from Minnesota who, you know, I won't get into all the statements, but every single conversation you hear, and we even talked with Ted Cruz about this,
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Ted Cruz is excellent. It's all about what can I get for my constituents? How do I get more jobs? And how do I get more money? And ultimately, that incentive is what gets people elected. And I don't think it's going to change. And so that was the biggest kind of shock for me.
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I thought that there was a moment of the importance of cost cutting, the importance of deficit reduction, the importance of debt reduction. And I was just a little saddened to kind of see that there's no stop in the train. So that was my takeaway. It's a little bit bitter. I hope I'm wrong. I really do hope Doge is effective.
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And I really do hope that policymakers start to recognize the importance. By the way, Ray Dalio has a new book coming out. We'll talk more about his book once it's released publicly. But it speaks very clearly to the challenge the United States is now facing. with respect to spending. So I know I've talked about this.
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I know we all felt like there was a big reprieve with this election, but for me, it was a little bit bitter.
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Move along, J. Cal. Let's go. Let's go.
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It is. And there was a good conversation yesterday. Graham Allison, who spoke at our summit, was on this panel and they basically said, we lost, they won. Like our group here at Davos lost, it's over. And they're no longer, to your point, on the right side of history. They said, we had a point of view on the future. We believe we were going in the right direction.
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And everyone told us in this last couple of months that we were wrong.
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And then he has a whole the guy has a whole long monologue on why they lost and what they lost, which I think is pretty relevant that that, you know, kind of elite, if you will, has been replaced with a populist vote and a populist leader.
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By the way, shout out to Akash Singh who joined us on the live stream as well. Oh, yes.
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Well, Thomas, let me ask you a question. Can you just tell the audience a little bit about, because you guys have been involved as investors in China for a long time. I would love for you to share behind the scenes what has gone on with respect to being an investor in China in technology over the last couple of years. What has changed and why and what goes on today?
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I definitely put you ahead of J. Cal Thomas, so you're up a spot. Oh, my God.
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You guys made a fantastic investment in ByteDance, which is the parent company of TikTok. You've made other incredible investments in China. Are you still investing in China? If not, walk us through what happened and why.
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Is it your read? Is it correct to say that the CCP... wanted to stop this extraordinary wealth creation by a subset of individuals in the country, that this was kind of becoming too much of a capitalist enterprising system and challenged some of the foundations of the CCP? Is that what was going on and why this all got throttled back?
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I mean, is there or is there something else, some other kind of security reason?
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Well, I'll just wrap on the TikTok. Sure. I do worry a lot about the precedent being set here. with respect to foreign government actions on US companies in their local countries. Imagine the CCP tells Tesla they have to sell their Chinese operations and give 50% of the Chinese operations to the Chinese government.
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because of their concerns about security where Tesla is now able to track Chinese citizens driving around and where they are. And you can see very quickly how this whole kind of overall, I think, presentation of the security risk that we face with TikTok and therefore we will shut it down or own it creates, I think, a counter that could really hurt American companies.
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You could see this going to Google, to Apple, to Tesla, even food manufacturing companies that have operations overseas where local governments say, hey, we need to, for local security purposes, we need to take ownership of your business.
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I think one of the things that's really benefited Americans in global trade is our ability to sell and export our technology, our goods, and our services around the world through open trade. And I do think that we've used this kind of TikTok security thing to say this is a rationale for us doing this as a one-off, but it also opens up a lot of other people to say this is a one-off.
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And so I'm just generally very wary about this whole TikTok situation opening up a can of worms.
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We should talk about Stargate and the AI project because I do think it tees off on one of the most... I want to talk about Jan 6th, though. Okay, but it does tee off of one of the other kind of key...
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things that I heard a lot about in DC, and I know Thomas is passionate about like I am, which is energy, electricity capacity build out in the United States, because it's critical, like building AI infrastructure means that we need to build energy infrastructure. All right.
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Sorry, let me just make a quick comment on the... Oh, sure, Dave, go ahead. The January 6th. I just generally don't like this power of pardon.
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8,000 pardons. And I feel like the original intention of the power of pardon, which is in the Constitution, was meant to kind of protect the union, the civility in the union at times of, you know, we need to kind of come back together again. and realign ourselves. And it has been so far abused beyond that original intention. It's almost like, feels like an extraordinary injustice.
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It almost gives the president the ability to rewrite the law that many of the kind of actions from the executive branch can simply supersede the actions of the judicial branch, which is really meant to protect and execute the laws of the nation. And I think it's gone too far.
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It feels like there's a necessary amendment to address this, that these presidents can come out and preemptively pardon people for things that might be found in the future because they're close with them. It has nothing to do with the original intention.
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If you go back to the arguments for the pardon being in the Constitution, you can see that Alexander Hamilton wrote deeply about it in Federalist Paper No. 74. And in that paper, he talked a lot about and emphasized that the justice system, which is designed to be fair, may occasionally result in overly harsh or unjust outcomes. And the pardon allows for acts of mercy to correct these situations.
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A lot of these sorts of actions that we saw happen with Biden do not fit the bill for that definition. I will tell you there's a quote from Federalist Paper 74 from Hamilton. It goes as follows. In seasons of insurrection or rebellion, there are often critical moments when a well-timed offer of pardon to the insurgents or rebels may restore the tranquility of the commonwealth.
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So to counter my point, Hamilton's argument is that when the nation is divided, the act of the pardon may actually help bring the nation back together, as may have been the case with respect to the January 6th. But it may not necessarily be about justice. Or Nixon.
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or Nixon, and it may not necessarily be about justice, but it's much more about restoring tranquility of the union and allowing the nation to move forward, even though it may not seem just, it may be the right thing for the nation. So I'm not trying to defend the action or defend the pardon. I really don't like the act of pardoning as a kind of tool that's being used in a hundred different ways.
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And it certainly seems like it requires change. Yeah.
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And they were pardoned. Then the law should have been changed and the courts should have overturned all of those convictions. It does not necessarily need to fall and it shouldn't fall on the executive branch to take that action. The courts need to do their job and the legislators need to do their job.
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Good question, Jacob.
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Top 30. Top 40. Top 40 sci-fi.
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I don't know.
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I went for white tuxedo on the first night. I've never had three tuxedos before, but David looked, David looked really great.
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Anybody can make a bet. The obvious consequence of this data center and chip infrastructure effort, which is obviously going to happen with or without government involvement, is an increase in electricity demand. Thomas, I know you've got some slides. Do you want to pull those up?
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and show them because I think they're something I've talked a lot about on the show, which is the difference in electricity production capacity in the US versus China, historically, and then prospectively going forward.
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Ultimately, as I've talked about, in the past, right, the US today is paying roughly, you know, call it one and a half to three x the price per kilowatt hour for electricity in the United States over what China's paying. We have I believe half of the electricity production capacity of China, they're adding more. The cost to add is one-tenth of what our cost to add is.
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Call it one-tenth to one-half our cost to add per new gigawatt of production capacity. Everything is in the wrong direction. And ultimately, if AI and automation are the critical factors for economic growth going forward, and electricity is the critical factor, input to that, we are hugely disadvantaged and aren't going to catch up.
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It seems like you've pulled this analysis together, which kind of indicates the same, if you think it makes sense to walk through this now.
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Well, it was about five minutes before this when the three of us took a photo. It was great. Yeah.
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Just read the numbers out so the audience that's listening can get a sense here.
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It's almost 7x, right? In 2000, the US and China were both roughly 1,000 terawatt hours. Today, the US is 1,600 terawatt hours and China is 9,000 terawatt hours. And this is just an extraordinary ramp up relative to correct US emissions.
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You're keeping us on track. We're 18 minutes into this, and we're doing fashion still.
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Can we go back to the Diego for a second?
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And I think what's really important to note is over that same period of time, Thomas, we're in a different era on nuclear than we were when we had Three Mile Island. And, you know, prior to that Chernobyl, we have new Gen 4 technologies.
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that are meltdown proof, that have a totally different architecture where there isn't a setup where you have runaway heat and ultimately a collapse of the reactor and a release of radioactive material, which is what happened at Chernobyl. These new systems, which we highlighted on the show a couple of months ago, like the pebble bed reactor that's been in production, making electricity in China,
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are incredible new technology architectures. And they're here. And they're running. And China's rolling out dozens or hundreds of these. And the United States is rolling out zero. And that needs to change. And I think we only have a couple of
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months to get the engine stood up that will allow us to make the material that will allow us to make the production technology needed to actually deploy these stations to try and have a shot at catching up. And if we don't, we're going to be hugely disadvantaged on an energy cost basis, we're going to be hugely disadvantaged on an ability to actually deploy AI technology competitively.
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We got to get it done.
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I will tell you that there is a lot of capital, and we mentioned this last time, a lot of intellectual capital in the United States that's eager, hungry, and ready to get moving on build-out. The only thing that's challenged and the only thing that's holding it back is regulatory challenges, regulatory roadblocks.
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And if those get removed through emergency action, I view this to be more of a national security threat, frankly, than the border. I think we need to get energy increased in this country in an accelerated way for the United States to even be in a position to be able to challenge China with respect to manufacturing and AI in the decades ahead.
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And the United States needs to consider this an emergency. Emergency declarations may be needed to drop the regulatory roadblocks that are keeping the proliferation of electricity production in the United States at bay. I think it's time for that sort of action. So I think that's the only thing that's getting in the way.
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That's right. And look, you have an energy czar that I think is very aligned with that intention in Doug Burgum. Obviously, we have this big AI arms race that's underway. We have an automation and manufacturing demand, which will massively increase energy demand in this country. And we have, I think, a deregulatory administration. The stars are aligned.
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And I think that this is a moment where this could happen.
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I have to say, Chamath, putting aside- Jason likes being a Republican.
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Brad Gerstner.
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By the way, following this dinner, all those streets were blocked off, and there was no way to get around. You can see it there.
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And it was like 10 degrees Fahrenheit, so we walk out. Yes, it's terrible. It was like... You were going to die after two seconds out there. It was so cold. Vinny and I were walking to try and get our car. And after walking for like half a mile, we're like, dude, there's no way out of this downtown area. And Vinny was shaking. He's like, I'm going to die. I'm going to die. I'm going to die.
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He turns around. He goes running back to the restaurant. Jumps in. And basically like huddles down in the restaurant. And then after about 10 minutes, there's no way out. He's like, you know, it's sort of like you're in a military zone. He's like, I'm going to go for it. He runs out, jumps on a scooter, and he disappeared into the distance. And I swore I would never see Vinny again.
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Well, what's really interesting is in the last five years, the market cap's grown by 8x. NVIDIA's grown by 20x. But, you know, Intel over the last five years is, what, down 70%? So, you know, I think there's a big divergence. Thomas, do you think this is a function of...
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I don't know if it's directionally investing in the right things, or is it about making long-term investments and thinking down the road?
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But did he buy well ahead of the curve? Did he buy over the horizon, Thomas?
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I'm like, that's it.
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And what's happened like with media overall in the administration now that confirmation hearings are underway, Sachs, and closing out? Does that mean folks are going to be able to get back on social and things that they were kind of restricted by over the last couple of weeks?
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Do you miss being on the pod, Sax?
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Yeah, sure. Of course.
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That was a crazy visual. Do you want to take us back, Zach, because you haven't talked about this publicly, but how did you end up, I guess, getting the offer for the role, deciding to take the role? Anything you want to share anecdotally on the path to get here?
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He did a spacewalk, the first civilian spacewalk.
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Brendan was really nice. I met him at Peter's event, and he told me he's a big fan of the pod. He listens to the show every week.
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And PCAST.
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Okay, let's talk about key takeaways. Chamath, what is your big takeaway from the weekend?
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I just got a haircut with a new person. She was like, I'm like, do what you want. This is what she did.
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It's starting already.
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I mean, look, one of the things I wanted to talk about was the DOI's role, the Department of Insurance role, in what I think will ultimately be creating a pretty significant economic consequence here from this sort of an event. But I'll answer your question. I don't think that the mission of any public service organization should be to meet DEI metrics.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think the mission of that public service organization should be to serve the public. And I think that those DEI metrics should not be a priority when serving the public is the objective. The best ability to serve the public should be the objective, and that's it. And I'll state that really clearly.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So obviously the fire chief in LA is getting a lot of attention, whether or not that prioritization of DEI metrics took away from the interest and the focus in preparing for major disasters, I don't know. There have been some interviews over the last day or two, just to be fair,
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where she has claimed that they asked for more money, that they would not be able to be prepared for major disasters if the budget cut took place that was proposed by Bass, that budget cut did take place. And so the fire chief has said that she asked for budget to make the preparation for this sort of event and she lost it.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And so I don't want to just say, hey, she's to blame, she's to blame because she was focused on DEI. But I will separately say that I think that creating DEI as a mission for an organization that's supposed to serve the public interest makes no sense.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Oh, I'm going to ask you a bunch of stuff next weekend then. I got so many ideas. I got a list. I'm going to ask you to do all sorts of things. If it's epic, I'm doing it. Yeah.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Yeah, that's a Kurosawa landscape.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
At the end, she gave me a little...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I was talking to Chamath about this earlier today because the California Coastal Commission was created by the voters directly in 1976. And that commission has authority that exceeds legislative action. So you would have to basically go back. My understanding is you'd have to go back to a state vote to rescind the powers of the California Coastal Commission.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So they have effective, complete authority over deciding what does or doesn't get built on the coast because their objective is to preserve the coast for the use of the community and restore it to its natural habitat. So anytime there's a request or a permit request, it can take two decades, three decades sometimes to get anything approved if they ever approve it at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And so the California Coastal Commission, any property that touches the beachfront in California, they have this kind of, you know, God level authority over and they're basically all political appointees that sit on the commission.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Yeah. This is the key point I wanted to say about insurance. So going forward, yeah. All of this property- that sits in climate sensitive zones, or weather sensitive zones, whatever you wanna call it, like we've talked about on the coast of California, of Florida, in hurricane centers, in tornado centers, where the frequency of loss is going up, they're priced
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
as if the frequency of loss is what it used to be, which is like, let's say you buy a home for a million dollars and the probability of your home getting wiped out by a natural disaster is a one in a thousand year kind of situation. So you have a one in a thousand chance of your home getting wiped out each year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So your price for insurance on that million dollar home should be about 10,000 bucks a year, one 10th of 1%. So 10,000 bucks a year for a million dollar home sounds expensive, but it is what you have to pay for homeowners insurance. But now let's say that the probability shifts to one in 20 years. So now you've got a one in 20 year probability of your home getting wiped out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Are you gonna pay 5% of your home value No. And if you have a $10 million home, are you going to pay $500,000 a year for property insurance? No. Now, what's happened is the insurance companies have these models. They're called CAT models or catastrophe models. It used to be two companies. One was called RMS. The other one was called Equicat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And I used to work in this business, so I know it pretty well. And then all the companies started building in-house models. And now there's startups that make models. And these models have shown that there are increased probability of complete loss in a region because of the increased probability of these crazy weather events happening. And so the price of insurance should go up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Here's the problem. There are 50 state insurance commissioners in the US. In order to sell insurance in a state, you have to have the insurance carrier and the policy approved in that state. And the states determine what rate or what price you can charge for insurance. So the state insurance commissions have a couple of goals. Number one is to keep all the insurance companies solvent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So they wanna check the financials of all the insurance companies, make sure they're not writing too many policies that they won't be able to pay out. The second thing is they wanna make sure that the insurance companies aren't ripping consumers off. So they have control over the rates and they don't want the rates to go up too much in any given year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So they're controlling rates and keeping them down. And then the third is they're supposed to make sure that consumers have access to insurance. And the third is a very hard thing to do. If you're trying to keep company solvents, you can't write too many policies. And you're saying, hey, you can't raise prices. And meanwhile, the probability of loss has gone up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So the insurance carriers are like, what choice do I have? So earlier this year, State Farm pulled out of Palisades. They stopped writing fire insurance in Palisades. They canceled 1600 policies in the exact neighborhood that just burned down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think it was like six months before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Yeah, but it seems crazy. But as you know, in Tahoe, a lot of the policies have been canceled.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
It's a crazy coincidence. And remember, in wine country, we had a lot of wipeouts. All of Santa Rosa was burnt out a few years ago. You guys remember that? And so they started pulling out of there. So a lot of the carriers are generally pulling out of California because when they go up to the DOI and they're like, hey, we need to raise rates by, we need to double the price of insurance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
You don't have the skill. I've never blow dried my hair in my life.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
We need to triple the price of insurance. This is now a one in 20 year event. The Department of Insurance says, no, no, no, we're not gonna let you charge that much to consumers. And then the carrier's like, okay, we got no choice, and they exit the market. Here, you can see right here, 1,600 policies canceled.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
This has been a big driver, is the Department of Insurance has made it very difficult to find this free market outcome. But at the end of the day, one of three parties are going to end up eating the cost of the change in probability of loss that has occurred.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
It's either the homeowner, because they're going to end up losing the value of their home in a loss, or they're going to end up needing to write down the value of their home when they sell it to someone who will take on that risk, which means the price has to come down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Or number two is the insurers, and there's not enough insurance capital out there to cover all these losses, so all these insurers would go bankrupt. Or the third is the taxpayer. One of those three is going to end up eating the loss that's about to happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Great scene. Talk about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
My parents just got evacuated. I got to call them and just... There's a new fire. They're literally... Right. There's a new fire called Kenneth Fire. It just took off and it's at their house. So just give me... I'll be back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Yeah, do an epic rant on Cyan's epic history.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
It's not okay listening to your, you know, 70-something-year-old parents evacuate their home and try and pack their cars with all their stuff in a matter of minutes while a fire creeps on their home is a pretty devastating thing to listen to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
They're trying to get out of the house. They're throwing everything in the car. There's evacuations. Oh, my Lord. If I'm looking at the video right now, the fire is, like, right by their house. It's insane. It's literally, like, blocks away from their house.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
This is nuts. This is the house I grew up in, in LA. I'm so sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And I'm like, you know, what do you say to them? Like throw all the photo albums in the car is what I said. Throw the photos, like just grab the framed photos. My mom's trying to grab all her like jewelry and stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I'm like grab all the photos, grab all the albums. And she's like, you know, she's grabbing her jewelry and stuff. And I'm like, grab the photos. Like.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
By the way, it's not just the leadership. It's also legislative action that's going to be needed to fix a lot of the policies, the regulations, the way infrastructure operates in the state. And that requires three things to change. Number one is the California State Assembly. Number two is the California State Senate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And number three is to put things in front of the voters that they can vote on to make the wholesale change needed to rescind some of the bad decisions that were made over the last three decades in the state that has led us to this point. And I think that it's gonna require, just like what happened recently in the national politics,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
a state politics organizational effort to say, let's take a look at the composition of the state assembly, the state senate, and what are some of the votes that need to be done by the citizens to make the necessary changes in the state to try and get the world's fifth largest economy to start acting and looking like it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Because right now, it's sort of like a weirdly disabled third world country type operation with the wealthiest resources on planet Earth. And it seems pretty f***ed up. It's almost like once people have it all, that's when they want to give it all up. That seems to be the moment that this state has just passed. Now maybe it's time to go reclaim it and build it back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I could see developers coming in and being like, dude, if I could buy all these lots for 80% off, I will.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Rick Caruso's of the world will do that, yeah. Anyway.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I'll give you another California Department of Insurance stat. So after the California Department of Insurance wouldn't allow the rates to rise like they should from a free market perspective, they had to set up their own insurance program called the Fair Plan for homeowners. It has about $220 million of capital in it. And then they bought about $5 billion of reinsurance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
They have about 6 billion of exposure in Pacific Palisades alone. This is a bankrupt, just like I told you guys about in Florida. The State Insurance Commission tries to step in and fill the market gap that they create by regulating rates. And then they don't have enough capital to actually fill the gap because the reason the rates want to go up is because the thing costs more
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
than the state is willing to admit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
They're driving real estate value up because they're not allowing the cost of insurance of that real estate to naturally float. And so by driving real estate values up, the economy looks good, they make property taxes, income comes in, but at the end of the day, the bill is gonna come due. And in the case of Florida and in the case of California,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
either the state government or the federal government's gonna step in and pay the difference. And at some point, taxpayers are gonna look at the fact that they're paying some percentage of their income to support someone else's home value. And they're gonna say enough is enough. And enough of these sorts of events start to happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And then the legislative change I think will happen that says, this, it doesn't make sense. We have to make a change. And I think we're getting pretty close after the series of events.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I will promote Cyan's interview with Tim Ferriss a couple of weeks ago. Oh, yes. I randomly turned it on. I was in the car driving home. And then I stopped in my driveway and kept listening. I was just telling Cyan, like, it was a fantastic, what was it, about two hours, two and a half hour interview?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And then I had to drive again. I listened to the, and I was like excited to get back to it, which never happens for me listening to long form interviews like that. Like it was phenomenal. So I recommend it to everyone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Is there anything wrong with it, J. Kell, or you're just saying it's a point of character?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Some of his close confidants, some of his confidants.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
A couple of things. One, Cyan is an incredible storyteller. Like the way she describes her experiences, her history, her life, beautiful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
What about the fact that he was dragged in front of Congress many times over and people that could put him behind bars pulled him to his face many times and this has all been kind of been coming out over the last couple of months that government officials were directing him in a way that feels like do this or you will be prosecuted to do the following things to act the following way and to moderate your platform in a way that we are telling you to moderate it or you will find yourself behind bars.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
She talks in kind of, I think, a deep persuasive way about some of the things that have shaped her, her business investing, as well as kind of spirituality, which she mentioned earlier, which is not something that you'll typically, and you're like, wait, where did this conversation just pivot to? And then you go down this whole other path with her and you go on the journey with her.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Do you not think that there's some degree of inherent complicit kind of role that certain government officials and folks in power had in driving some of those actions that maybe he had to do it to survive and to keep the company alive?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
He has no... Do you know that for sure? Because I just want to make sure I ask you... I'm just basing it on his actions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I'm just trying to get you to take a fair point of view, which means let's make sure you're thoughtful about the fact that this is not a dumb person. Give him the benefit for a minute.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I'm just saying, let's just assume he's not dumb. And let's say that as Cyan points out, and as he's kind of highlighted points in his history, he actually does have certain beliefs and certain systems that he would love to kind of embrace. I've said this many times before. All of the founders of the big tech companies were all big free speech advocates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
That was a big part of the open internet and the movement of the open internet when a lot of people got involved. And that was a big part for him. And I don't know, like, you know, if you really think at some point he flipped his switch and said, I don't care about the open internet. I now want to have a closed controlled internet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Or if he recognized or was coerced into controlling moderation on the platform because of the reach that he had. And he said, the only way I can have any degree of openness is to do the following. And I will say that my experience is similar in Google. When Google had to exit China,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
They initially went to China with a closed internet, with a closed censored model of search, because that was the way they had to survive to offer a business in China. They didn't morally agree with it. They didn't think it was ethically correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Let me just make sure I get this all correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
There's a long history to this. Okay, let's let Cyan come in here. I want to make sure I get this right, but go ahead, Cyan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I just thought it was great. So all over the place, it was great, beautiful, recommend it to everyone to get to know Sian.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Of course, of course. I mean, listen, Reddit had- By the way, they all do. And I've never met an internet business executive who didn't come from kind of the open internet philosophical doctrine by background, that that was a big motivator for all of us because the internet took away the controls, took away the power, took away the censorship.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
took away all these things that other kind of communication systems had vested in them. And the internet through an open protocol allowed anyone to share anything with anyone else. And obviously laws and all this other stuff that's happened since then has made that far more difficult. And I will revisit our conversation, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Google's China with censored search results was live for four years before they canceled it. So they launched in 2006. They censored results. They complied with the Chinese government's request. And eventually in 2010, they killed it. And you could argue it was because of philosophical reasons, but fundamentally, it never actually got a lot of users in China. There were more users on Baidu.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And Google had separately made an investment in Baidu that worked out for them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Yeah, Google claimed there was a hack that happened on their servers in China, and so they were just no longer comfortable operating in China.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
But why do you call them spineless? Like, why go after the guy? Why?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Would you meet Zuck in the octagon? That's the most important question of the day. No.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Would you meet Palmer Luckey in the octagon?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I'm just trying to let that die down. Just wondering.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
somebody to fight for him trey from founders fund and i said no uh unless trey was i would like i would you guys ever watch the old tv show american gladiators i would like i would like you and palmer to have an american gladiators style tournament like maybe four or five events and you know you kind of that would be incredible put up a million dollars for charity i'll totally do it we'll put up a million dollars each for charity i'll do it
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Let's get the word out there. I think that this could be the show of the season. Let's end on something super world positive here. This would be more exciting than The Accelerator, I will tell you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
You could actually call it American Gladiators. It would be a great show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Here's how he asked me to do it in his room. It's a true story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
The point is it's not, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So I think the bet he's making is it's not just LLMs, which is predicting text, but we've talked a lot about machine vision models. graph neural nets that are being used for weather forecasting. There's now these kind of genome language models that are trying to predict genomic output for biotech applications. There's also going to be kind of real time machine vision and robotic response.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Like we're working on this at Ohalo and we're trying to figure out what's the right kind of runtime environment for these sorts of systems that are going to be using a machine vision and a robotic kind of response type system. And there's a lot of these industrial applications that are emerging. Let's say you're running a robot in a warehouse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Do you really want that robot in the warehouse to be sending data to the cloud and waiting for a model to run in the cloud and getting a response? The probability is you want to have that at the edge of the network. You want to have something local. And I don't think he necessarily has a strong point of view on what the types of models and industrial applications will be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
But the bet he's making is that the models are good enough and now the chips are good enough that they can actually realize real-time responses using machine vision, using real-time input, and then respond quickly with a local model running, whatever that model is, to drive some output in the industrial setting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And that there'll be a lot of these sorts of applications, whether that's making predictions for biotech research, or whether that's for running robots in warehouses, or building new research models, or maybe you could strap this PC on the back of something like a car, a tractor, a lawnmower, a humanoid robot, or any other set of applications.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
If you're taking in a lot of data and then you have to run a lot of data in a model, it's a lot faster to run that model locally. Like when Tesla runs self-driving, it's not sending the video images from your car to a server a thousand miles away and then letting the server decide how to drive your car. The car is running its model on what to do with respect to the video imagery in the car.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
It's local because the ability for all that data to get processed in the car means that you don't have to wait for the internet to transmit data back and forth. You don't have lag time. You don't have the 60 millisecond or 100 millisecond response time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Exactly. Or the connection drops or waiting for a server to come online or a server breaks in the data center. Everything is local. So if you strap this like, you know, NVIDIA computer which is basically plug and play. You don't have to have like hardware expertise. You can strap it onto the back of a humanoid robot or run research applications locally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So I think that there's going to be some really interesting use cases, whether it becomes a replacement for the Apple, you know, Macintosh Pro Studio device, whatever. Maybe we'll see.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
The Mac Mini 4. But a lot of people have pointed out that actually the compute on this thing for $3,000 knocks a lot of Macs out of the field.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Again, I don't know how to read it. I have no inside information. There's clearly some posturing, as we've heard many times when Trump makes a declaration, like I'm going to put on 100% tariff on every car that's imported, or I'm going to charge you 2000 bucks Mexico for every time you ship something here, or I want to do X or Y or Z.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
It's not the literal statement that matters as much as kind of the vector and the magnitude of the vector. He's clearly trying to begin negotiating for some change. I don't know what the ultimate kind of strategic endpoint is meant to be here, but clearly there's something. I think Chamath might have a good read on this and seems to make a lot of sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Can I ask you guys a question? I started, I listened to Lex Friedman's interview, this is totally off topic, but I listened to Lex Friedman's interview with Graham Hancock. You guys ever heard of this guy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Have you read any of his stuff or watched any of his shows?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Okay. So he's got this belief that there was this like ancient civilization on earth, not like sci-fi futuristic, but like an advanced human civilization. And that's where the great pyramid of Giza was like, there was a smaller pyramid that was built there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And a lot of these other kinds of like historical places were built and then they were built on top of later, but that a lot of these, like this advanced civilization was wiped out during, um, The last ice age, there was a very rapid kind of freezing event that happened over a period of about 1,200 years. And that's when this great kind of ice age era civilization was wiped out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
But what I didn't realize, and so I went down this really crazy rabbit hole in the last week on like how much of planet Earth, how different planet Earth was just 12,000 years ago during the ice age. Have you guys spent any time on this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
First of all, how the planet Earth has changed in such a short period of time blows my mind. But the sea level was 400 feet lower than it is today, just 12,000 years ago. And there were humans on Earth at the time. And so all of this area that we look at as Malta, the island of Malta, was the southern tip of a continental stretch that went into Italy. So it was all part of one great landmass.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And there's all this area that was actually part of that landmass that now sits under that ocean there. And there's these like ruts in the ground for moving stuff and buildings and all this other crazy stuff. And we have no idea like what's actually under the ice in Greenland, what's under the ice in Antarctica.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
There's all these parts of earth where humans very likely had some, this is so off topic, we could cut this from the show. No, I think it's incredible. Shemoth and I- It's so crazy that there's all these parts of Earth, and especially like in the oceans, as we start to kind of explore, there's actually like large humans, potentially advanced civilizations that lived in these areas.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Not like sci-fi flying around. The Atlanta stuff. The Atlanta stuff, that it was actually like an advanced civilization. And then humans lost a lot of this ability when this period of freezing happened over 1,200 years. And then a lot of it was preserved in legends and myths that showed up in later kind of archaeology and later museums.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I've heard this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
By the way, before you go, do you have an alternative explanation for the pyramids, Cyan? Yeah, Cyan, what is your answer?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I don't think that those are exclusive. Okay, I think that you can have had both incompetent planning and execution by leadership, as well as have kind of uncontrollable circumstances that management and planning weren't necessarily going to solve. And I'll kind of talk about a couple of these points real quick. First of all, like we talked about
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
when the hurricane hit a couple of months ago, remember? And as you guys know, I have an office or facility out in Nashville. So we were exposed to the flooding circumstances and we talked about the frequency of that sort of an event having been such a rare occurrence becoming more common
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Similarly, we're seeing more frequent high wind events in California, flooding events in California, and extremely hot events in California. If you look at this link I sent out, Nick, in terms of the total precipitation over this current what's called rain season, the Southern California region is basically at a, you know, call it 0% of normal. So this is Southern California.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
You can see that third column. That's the percent of normal rainfall that has been experienced. There's been zero rain. in these regions. So everything is primed to be very dry, and then you get the Santa Ana winds, 100 mile an hour winds.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
No matter how much underbrush you clear out, no matter how many trees you remove, if there's some embers in the air, there's a 100 mile an hour wind, that is gonna create a fire hurricane, and a lot of homes are gonna get caught on fire. So it's very hard to kind of just pin the blame solely on not doing underbrush clearing, not doing removal of trees. Those should have happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
They didn't happen. That was wrong. That was bad policy. But it doesn't excuse the fact that there's a natural event that happened here that seems to be occurring with greater frequency. The thing I'll kind of pivot to, if we want to get there now, maybe we'll talk about that in a minute, it's kind of the economic and the policy issues with respect to the Department of Insurance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think that's where there's going to be real pain and devastation. And that's the biggest economic consequence is the role that insurance has played in all this stuff, which we'll get to in a minute.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I feel like we're at a really interesting inflection point that is gonna make 2025 the year of autonomous hardware or robotics. If 2024 was the year of kind of compute build out and the rollout of AI systems in software, I think 2025 will be the year of the robot. You know, there's a company, we just placed an order today actually, out of China called Unitree.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Gavin, have you looked at this company?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
It's an incredible business, incredible product. So their GO2 robot is $1,600, has an API. Here it is. You can run a payload on it. It's got LiDAR on it. It's got... kind of intelligence guidance systems on it. This is the robot system that was used on some of those videos we looked at earlier this year where there were machine guns mounted to the back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And it was basically a new kind of field soldier. It's an autonomous field soldier. But really, you can use it in scientific applications. We're looking at using them on our test farms where it can wander the farm and take images and report data back to us. And it's such a low cost at like less than $3,000. You can do some incredible things with it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So this business just raised a couple hundred million dollars last month from mostly Chinese investors to Chinese company. And I think that there's going to be, you know, other similar type businesses, you know, kind of takes a long time for things to work. And then all of a sudden they happen faster than you could have ever imagined.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think this is going to be the year where we're all going to look at humanoid robots and autonomous systems and be like, oh, my God, I can't believe this is here. So this could be the year. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Sorry, Nick, pull up the, you guys got to watch this if you haven't seen it. Nick, find the video of the GO2 with the wheels on it, managing terrain. Oh, yes. Yeah. And everyone thought this was a BS video that it was like CGI wasn't real. It was AI generated. But like this thing is just incredible. Here it is. This is a real video of this thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Gavin, is this real?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah. So pull up the humanoid. It's really cool. And it's a little more expensive. Yeah. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And this thing, you can basically command it to do things for you in your house or in your factory or in your workplace. Oh, come on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Do you guys remember that robot that was on stage? for our all-in holiday spectacular. So my brother made an observation. He said, as soon as that robot came out, it's like everyone just wanted to abuse it. He's like, humans have this very interesting nature where like the robot emerges and all that humans want to do is like hurt the robot. It's like a very strange revelation of human behavior.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah, like it just, it's like, oh, here's something I could dominate. Here's something I can... tell it what to do and control it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Anyway, these things are amazing. I think this is going to be the year of the robots.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Well, we obviously have talked to Shane at Polymarket for some time, and we set up a deal with them where we could put our own markets up on the site. So we're going to talk about a couple of our predictions this year, and then Polymarket will post them up on... on their site and people can trade them, obviously XUS.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I don't know enough about stable coins.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But that's not Tesla, right? Is that Tesla?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And we're really excited about it because it'll allow us to kind of track how we're doing and give us the opportunity on an ongoing basis to create markets. So there'll be an all-in section on Polymarket where you can kind of go in and see the all-in market. It's going to be really cool.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Pretty flat. Yeah, we didn't have a lot of the inflationary pressures that I think were underlying that thesis. Got it. It ended up being, I'd say, a loser relative to other indices you could have bought this year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Is it true? You did? Oh, you don't call that story?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I'm sort of on the same vein as Gavin. I went with the kind of old defense and aerospace providers, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon. Defense 1.0. Driven by kind of China dominance, driven by US defense budgets that I think are going to need to shift towards a more kind of tech-oriented and ROI-driven rationalization and pricing and spend.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So the Palantirs and Andorils, obviously, the world will benefit. And I also just think there's a lot of failure at scale with these businesses. They've gotten too clunky and too bureaucratic, as we've seen with Boeing from their space program failure in 2024 to the challenges with their airplane business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But I think that this government contracting business across the board is going to be deeply challenged this year with all the new blood.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
That's a good point too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
When you got a bunch of software entrepreneurs that are now advising and informing the federal government on how to run their operations, I'm pretty sure that some of these service providers are going to get washed out. So it's a good idea.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I needed new boots and I tore my MCL last season. So I'm in, it got really tweaked when I went out there, but I'm good. It was great. I had a lot of fun. I mean, I think I skied four days. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Is that your super prediction, is OpenAI will not be able to convert from nonprofit to for-profit in 2025?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
In 2025. Yeah. By the way, you know, they're projecting, I think, in the leaked financials, 12 billion in revenue next year, J. Cal. So unlike a lot of the other things you were talking about, this is a real business with real revenue, real scale, real growth, real technology. It's a little bit distinct from kind of being a meme stock or being a... Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Was it just Reddit? I should probably look it up. What do you got this year? I'll just follow on my year of the robot theme. I do think that there's going to be massive funding deals. Similar to what we saw this past year for compute build-out, I think we're going to see massive funding deals for hardware-based manufacturing build-out in the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think that those deals may take the form... of kind of traditional equity from private markets, or they may have some component that includes government support to kind of motivate and drive and accelerate onshore manufacturing. We're not going to go in the US to making stuff that is like last century. I think we're going to need to move manufacturing to the next decade, next century of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
of production. And I think that's going to mean making some of these autonomous and robotic type systems that are going to become really critical for us, particularly with China doing this massive ramp up and build out for both drones and robots and autonomous vehicles. So I think we're going to need to kind of onshore a lot of this. And so that'll be a big amount of capital that's going to move.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And so you'll see a bunch of these big blockbuster deals for hardware build out in the US.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Well, we talked about this like two weeks ago. You know, Meituan in China has got this, and they have food delivery happening with these drones. By the way, just kind of dovetailing off of this, I think the other big deal potential in 2025, just to be very specific, is a deal with Waymo. You know, Waymo launched in SF in August, 2023, in kind of an open market way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Uber and Lyft were 66 and 34% market share at the time. And in 15 months, in November of 2024, Waymo is now a 22% market share of rides in SF, which is the same as Lyft and Uber is now down to 55. So Waymo ate into both Uber and Lyft's market share by on the order of 12 points in just 15 months. And now they're launching in LA, in Austin, all over the country. They're already in Phoenix.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I think you could see a massive... And by the way, they also just moved the hardware platform over to a new device that's supposedly going to bring the CapEx significantly down for new launches. So you'll see much improved ROIC metrics, which means that there's a much kind of more efficient way to use capital to scale. So the system works. It is scaling. They are opening up in new markets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
You could see something happen with Waymo this year that could either be something like a massive financing, an IPO, or a merger or acquisition with one of the big ride-sharing companies. I don't know if that makes as much strategic sense as I've thought about it a little bit, but I do think you could see a big deal with Waymo. This company...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
is if you guys have not been in a Waymo, I think we all talked about this, but it's an incredible experience. And everyone I know of every age group that has been for a ride in Waymo comes out of it saying, that is the future. This is going to absolutely dominate how I'm going to get around when I'm in urban areas.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I didn't predict it was going to happen. I just said the probability went up. It's a tough thing to call.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
D-I-S-G-R-A-Z-I-A-D. Disgraziat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think that the party line is that socialism was defeated in this election cycle and that there was a resounding kind of vote from the American populace against socialism. And I actually think my contrarian belief is that we'll see a rise, a dramatic rise in socialist movements in 2025 in the United States. And I think that we are gonna see, as Gavin pointed out, an acceleration of progress.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
We're gonna see an unleashing of economic growth because of deregulation and AI. But I do think that some markets, we've also talked about the downfall of US auto manufacturing and some other industries. There's gonna be a real significant shift in 2025. Some industries and some companies are gonna be huge winners and some companies are gonna be huge losers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
There's gonna be some parts of the economy that are gonna be big winners and some parts of the economy that are gonna be big losers. When you have this sort of a change this fast, there are often large contingents of people that are left behind. And when that happens, I do think that the socialist policies and the socialist movements gain steam. When Perón came to power in Argentina,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
In the mid-1940s, that country was experiencing 8% GDP growth, to Gavin's point about accelerating growth. Growth does not mean that it benefits everyone equally. And I think that some folks will see people go from being billionaires to 100 billionaires to the world's first trillionaire, and it will also start to fuel this rise.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I think that we will see an increase in the breadth and depth of socialist movements in the United States. By the way, particularly with Doge cutting government funding to programs that benefit individuals, employment being cut in the federal government and through federal contractors, there's just a lot of rapid change that's about to kind of really upset a lot of people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
That would be awesome. There's just going to be a lot of employment and income disruption in 2025. And it's going to fuel socialist movements. And I think that this is going to be a more difficult year. Everyone thinks it's kind of... rosy red because we're all working in the tech industry in Silicon Valley.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But the reality on the ground for most Americans could be a lot harsher than any of us anticipate. And that could make for a very difficult political environment and social environment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Because I think- You don't think it's contrarian? You think it's obvious? I think the party line has been that socialism was getting knocked back this year with this election cycle and it was a mandate against socialism and some of the socialist policies that were being put forth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think that the contrarian view is that we're actually got this really wrong and socialism is going to be on a big rise.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
You're making the assumptive statement that these things are easy to do, which was what was said about education. It's like, let's give everyone access to college education with the federal student loan programs. And what happened was when we introduced those programs, those schools started to charge more and the tuition went up every year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And eventually the cost of education inflated away from the benefit you were getting from it. And this has happened universally in healthcare. It has happened in housing. It has happened in education. It has happened in every market where the United States- Yeah, I can tell you why I think it's easy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Where the government has stepped in to provide capital to support that market is that the market basically no longer operates in a free way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
That's a good one. The total collapse of OpenAI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Let's do it. Yeah, I got it. I love Sam Altman. I think he's great. Jeff Bezos could still run for president, J. Cal. Don't forget. Maybe he's great. I don't know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Are you familiar with J. Cal's prediction that Jeff Bezos is going to run for president?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
You think he's going to sell the Washington Post? Or do you think he's going to hold on to it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Jeff Bezos will sell the Washington Post in 2025. That's a good polymarket.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Sideways. You know what? I looked at the components of that ETF last week when we were preparing for this. It has absolute junk in it. It was not the right way to kind of trade uranium, but- Anyway, that was my outcome for the year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I went with Chinese tech stocks, Chinese tech ETFs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think that the market, everyone's kind of dumped Chinese tech stocks over the last couple of years. Everyone's taken this isolationary stance on positioning portfolios and saying, hey, we can't do business with China. It's over.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I also took a class-based approach. I chose young candidates. So Trump's cabinet picks have an average age of 40 to 45 years old compared to the Biden cabinet where the average age is a little over 59, almost 60 years old. And I do think that this marks the beginning of a new trend in the kind of age range of political candidates shifting younger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But I do think that the Trump administration, particularly with their recent request on TikTok, the ban on TikTok being kind of halted, they're trying to line up what I would call kind of like the great deal with China. So I don't know anything about what they're actually trying to do. But I think that Trump and leadership in the U.S.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
government want to kind of open up the Chinese market to American companies in order to give Chinese companies access to the American market. And I think that they're going to get a deal done given the position with China. I think that they're very likely to kind of get a deal done. That's one driver. I think there's three drivers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
The second driver is that obviously the cost of build out of electricity production in China is unfathomable. They recently approved $137 billion hydroelectric dam facility, which is going to add another, I think, a couple hundred gigawatts of electricity production in that country, not to mention all the nuclear build-out we've talked about in the past.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So the cost per kilowatt hour is already lower. The amount of electricity available is going up. And then I think that the Chinese Communist Party have this incredible ability to throttle up and down free markets and entrepreneurship. And this is a moment where you could kind of see them making the throttle go the way towards enabling more innovation, more free market activity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And it's going to be one of the motivators for them to do a deal. So when you put all of this together, I do think that there's a lot of Chinese tech companies that have been beat up under the assumption that this is going to be a very difficult conflict with the US in the years ahead. And I think that that may not be the case. going into 25. And I think that these stocks are pretty cheap.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I was just looking at Alibaba and it trades at a pretty decent multiple. It seems like these stocks could be poised for a pretty good run in 25 if the macro works out.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
The good thing is you'll know if I'm right or wrong in a year. Exactly. We'll know exactly. That's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And by the way, the Chinese companies serve a global market. It's not just the US. They serve Africa, South America, I mean, the whole Southern hemisphere.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I mean, the Chinese companies and they have the best unit economics. They have the best cost of production. I mean, everything is advantaged, particularly if you believe it's the year of the robot. There's going to be kind of a massive demand around the world for automation products. and for rebuilding manufacturing capacity all over the world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I think that this is something we should expect as candidates start to emerge for the midterms by the end of 2025. We'll start to see younger new names start to pop up that deliver resonant messages and aren't part of kind of the old guard of, you know, the aging political class. So I think that's a trend that's kind of underway now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think that China could service those markets more efficiently than any other kind of country of origin. So it's a pretty powerful set of macro drivers as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I'm probably just going to triple underline vertical SaaS again, perceived pricing model being challenged, pricing being compressed as companies explore in-house tools built with AI that replaces these kind of traditional business practices. Emotes are going to be destroyed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
They're still doing 12 billion in revenue.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
6 billion this year or 6 billion next year?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I guess it makes sense why they're trying to charge 200 bucks a month now. Up from 20.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Well, there was a lot of funding and Demis won the Nobel Prize. And a Nobel Prize. There you go. So it worked out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
My most anticipated trend is around the announcement of build out of nuclear power in the United States in 2025 as a function of deregulation and some new technologies. I do think that this new government is going to be much more accommodating. And it's going to, as I've said in the past, I think it's a necessity just because of the rate at which we have to do power build outs.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
to meet kind of competitive demand against China, the United States is going to need to add more power, electricity production capacity than we can scale up with any other renewable source. So I do believe that nuclear is an inevitability. I think that the deregulation will happen in 25.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I do know a lot of very smart people who are actually starting nuclear power companies and have left very good jobs to go and do this in anticipation of this happening in 25. So I'm very bullish.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I'm into AI video games. The cost of production comes way down when you use AI and you can have dynamic storylines. You can have new gameplay concepts, things that don't exist today. I think that the creative talent plus the technical talent that you typically find at development houses can be kind of unleashed with tools that have come to market recently.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
We've seen a lot of the generative video stuff But there's also ways structurally that video games can kind of be rebuilt where the video game engine can run kind of locally. It can be generating parameters that can then use an existing rendering engine. So you can have entirely new storylines and entirely new kind of plot sequences.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I do think that there's going to be a rewrite of video games in the video game industry. with the variety of AI kind of capabilities that are hitting market now. And it's going to be incredible. It's going to be incredible entertainment. People that don't play video games are going to find stuff that they're going to love.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
How are you going to measure that? There has to be a source of truth on these things, right?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I wanted to kind of play with was Microsoft, AWS, and Google Cloud revenue growth. Who's going to win in growth in 2025? I don't know how closely you guys track, but I get a sense that Google is kind of accelerating ahead. Gavin, I don't know how much you've spent on these three.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Can we talk about, yeah, I mean, I guess, who has the largest dollar gain in revenue in cloud revenue in 2025? Is it Google, Amazon, or Microsoft?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
How would you do it? Yeah, so what I would do is I would set the federal debt for December, the U.S. Treasury market report on federal debt in 2025. And I would set it at $37 trillion. And so you basically, the U.S. Treasury market report, December 2025, above or below $37 trillion. It's going to be above. I mean, let's just call it $38 trillion then.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
We'll do the U.S. Treasury market report, December 2025, federal debt above $38 trillion or below $38 trillion.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
About one and a half. Yeah.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Gavin, what's your sense on federal debt next year?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
How big is your firm, Gavin?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
It's a longer conversation. I don't have time for this, but I gotta be honest. I don't generally align with the idea that our very narrow range of understanding of technology and biology kind of is what visits us or would visit us. I think that there's an extension of information gathering that doesn't require moving physical, biological life forms from one part of the galaxy to another.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I think that the whole premise of UFOs moving bodies around is rooted in the current state of technology of humanity, which is the basis of Arthur Clarke's
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
treatment of 2001 A Space Odyssey which was done before the screenplay which was done before the book and the treatment which you can buy I think highlights this the best which is eventually every civilization reaches a sufficiently advanced level of technology that you no longer need to physically move the bodies of
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I'm going to predict the pro-war neocons who are going to go head to head with the JD Vance and Elons and others of the world. And I think that they're going to lose. And I think that there's going to be this kind of big crack in the establishment of this neocon
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
the biological organisms around, that you simply are gathering information and affecting information. Because once you have the ability to convert any molecule into any other molecule, and you have access to sufficient energy, which you will eventually evolve to be able to do, you can basically turn your local part of the universe into anything you want it to turn into.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And then you're simply gathering information from all over the rest of the universe. So I would argue that there doesn't really make a lot of basic sense in why alien bodies would want to move around the galaxy.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
movement that's been a very pro-conflict around the world and we've heard it in the speeches and in the commentary from jd and others and i think this is going to be the year it's all going to kind of come to a head i think they're going to end up on the losing side can i gavin can i take the other side just just a little bit so that's why you're here yeah yeah i think it's right in reality
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
The audience wants to know. Is this guy a player? Like, what's the deal? Tell us. Roughly $4 billion. Okay.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
We already see it with Canada, with NATO, with Taiwan. There's a lot, you know, we're going to do this or this. The tariffs, obviously, there's just a lot of very aggressive posturing leading up to the negotiations that are hopefully going to get the U.S., Good deals. We'll see.
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So funny. I love the barren mediums. They're my favorite.
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What you're seeing is him melting down inside. Jason has a big negative bias against these coins.
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Meanwhile, you want every retail investor to have access to buy startups because that'll benefit you. But when it comes to coins, you're like, oh, no one should be able to do that. I'll address that.
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No, no, you're absolutely right. It's actually a real issue. I actually agree with you. Like securities regulations require And when you do an IPO, you file an S-1 and you disclose who owns the shares. And it has to go on a regulated exchange so you know who the buyers of the shares are. So I do actually think your framework is pretty reasonable. I thought you were just mocking me.
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Well, I do mock you generally. Let's go to the next one then. No, no, I do think that's right.
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Can I just tell you, agricultural labor costs have climbed by probably 3x in the last four or five years. And there's not enough labor to address kind of agricultural production needs in this country, particularly in specialty crops because it's the world I work in.
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How are we going to kind of address both the kind of economic demand for labor in this country and address this kind of immigration challenge?
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Vance came on our show and he said, hey, you got to do the first thing first and then the second thing second.
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This is when we need Sachs here to check you, to fact check you on whether those guys have said that.
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By the way, that's already happening because I've heard from a lot of agricultural leaders. They're seeing labor depart the country right now in anticipation of the administrative change. And a lot of labor is very scared of what's happening. They don't want to be caught. They just came here for work. These are individuals who came to this country to work.
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They are employed, whether legally or illegally, to do work that's in demand in this country. And they're worried they're going to go to jail, so they're leaving. And that there's a massive outflux right now, particularly in rural areas, there's a massive outflux right now of labor that's really critical to a lot of those farming economies.
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And a lot of people in the agricultural sector are very nervous about what's about to happen. impact. But let me ask you another question.
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Do you think, and align with Elon's point of view and some of the stuff that's been promoted, that there's a big push by the Democrats to keep the borders open to create more voting Democrats in this country, that that's a big reason or rationale for the alternative of having illegal immigration and converting everyone to legal?
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That doesn't make sense.
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Yeah, I guess that's a longer conversation, and we probably need to wrap up in a minute. I never understood how that works.
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It's supposed to be an advisory capacity, right? I mean, yeah, it is.
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Which, by the way, is what happened 250 years ago when this Congress was started.
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Okay, this is the last question. Congressman, last question. Give us the... Give us the... Give us the last one.
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That's where my parents live. They probably live a couple blocks from each other.
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The fire stopped two blocks from their house.
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No, so the Ventura County line comes up to right there. Yeah. And the fire department didn't. And Cal Fire and Fire Department are incredible. They stopped it from entering the neighborhood. That's amazing. It was amazing. Yeah.
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He got he got motivated. We went to a Spotify dinner last night and they were talking about journalism. He's like, I'm a journalist. I'll show you guys.
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East Bay.
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East Bay, yeah.
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Like a lot of them.
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He's a Democrat.
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He had Bernie Sanders on. You wanted to have Hillary. You guys fumbled it.
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We'll see if the party fumbled it. Maybe you can comment on it.
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How did Kamala get selected?
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Should there have been a speed primary, like J.K. Hall?
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Let's talk about Doge.
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So you don't view it as a security risk for the United States.
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A lot of it does. Have you seen a lot of stuff you buy? Drones? Chinese-made drones? There's a whole website now that breaks down modern consumer electronics from China that actually…
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have these hacking devices built into them I don't know if you've seen this yeah I don't know I mean like you'll buy like a USB charger that's like eight bucks on Teemu or something and it's inside it's got like an IP address and it actually finds Wi-Fi it connects and it transmits yeah this is incredibly dangerous and like there's so many and I bought this like
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cheap drone for like christmas someone uh for like anyway one of my little nephews brought it and i'm like dude this thing is like 149 bucks and i looked it up online it's like got camera connects to your wi-fi and then asked for access to your phone and i'm like i'm not doing that like yeah i tweeted this a few months ago i don't think tick tock's the issue the usbc charging cables exactly yeah those can be hijacked yeah they're rooted the charging cables
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That's a censorship point of view, which is government has a role in controlling.
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Now you're making a different case. Now you're saying it's like reciprocity as opposed to controlling. First you were saying it's security. Then you're saying it's like controlling our point of view. Now you're saying reciprocity. Those aren't the same thing. Security risk likely lies everywhere. On security? On controlling the point of view of stuff.
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Dude, the Intelligence Committee doesn't technically see that. Oh, no, they've seen it. Clearly, they're not agreeing with you.
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If you're just think about this for a second. If your business depended on you using TikTok, how would you feel about the TikTok? And you're not well seen.
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And I generally agree with you. Because, Chamath, where this goes is you're like, well, I don't want to import Korean cars because they've got electronics that are connected to the Internet in every Korean car. Now the Koreans can spy on where we are.
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I mean, you can very quickly see how this can open up a floodgate of banning because foreign adversaries could take advantage of us, which is exactly including including. banning chip imports, including banning router imports. You could very quickly make this a whole- It's happened with routers.
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We're going to go down a very nasty place.
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By the way, it does seem a little crazy to me. Isn't the US revenue after TikTok for ByteDance like 5%?
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The US is $30 or $40 billion.
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Wait, wait, Doge. We're going to do Doge. Okay. Let's do Doge. Okay. Tell us your point of view on Elon Vivant coming in, what they're going to do, what's good about it, what you really don't think is good about it. Do you have concerns? Yeah.
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But they've got a lot of people that they've recruited.
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Federal employees not showing up to the office.
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And that's not how the Republican Party operates, because I think some people in the public have this perception that both parties operate that way, that there is a cabal of the most influential and ultimately they end up getting to pick and the other party does the same thing. Is that not the case?
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Hold on. Before we do that, I just want to ask you about, um, should the United States spend, spend $200 billion to acquire Greenland from Denmark?
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Mineral rights, security aspects.
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And clearly that wasn't the case with Trump, right?
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Best example.
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Which Republican will be the next governor of California?
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You're saying government investment. in building new businesses, building new industries is necessary to achieve that vision. That's a better alternative. What is the historical kind of examples where policies or government was going to go start new investments, start fundamentally supporting new businesses being built that's worked successfully and work better than free markets?
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Like the Republican argument is the free market is more efficient. The free market works better. Let capital and capitalists find where the capital is best applied. It'll be more efficiently utilized versus government making the decision about where capital should go. It's typically lower ROI, very often negative ROI, and doesn't actually create sustainable economic growth.
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Infrastructure.
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That's globalization is what some of the non-Neo-Con Republicans would say is that global trade versus cut off some of the global trade, create a tariff program with China and we'll reignite manufacturing. That's kind of a counter policy argument. But to your point, it's a different point of view that uses different set of data to make the case.
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You think we need government programs?
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So, you know, do you feel and does the party feel that there should be no deregulatory effort in the United States to unleash kind of, you know, economic investment and growth or like this?
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This whole point is, you know, it just feels wrong to me to say, like, we don't want the right like shouldn't be a thing that we're always cutting back things, bureaucracy, bureaucratic red tape that we've created to unleash. I mean, even Gavin Newsom is making this claim now in California with respect to the rebuilding.
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I had a good time with Lex Friedberg last night. Let's leave it at that. Let's leave it at that.
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Everything's too expensive in this country. By the way, this goes back to nuclear energy. It's too expensive to build a gigawatt of nuclear power in this country. It takes too long. Meanwhile, China can do it for about a tenth of the price, and they're scaling up 300x our rate in terms of new energy production.
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Half the time, a tenth of the cost, and there's a regulatory path for Gen 4 reactors going up in China versus here.
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So this is really important because I think what happens is the Republicans or the Democrats will come forward with a general policy statement. We need to dereg to unleash economic prosperity or dereg to unleash nuclear. But the other party then says, well, we've got to figure out a way to attack them on that vector.
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And then they take this like diametrically opposed point of view to try and diminish the strength that they're gaining because of their strong policy perspective that may be good for America. And then we end up in this unfortunate circumstance where we can't ever align on the things that really are good for America. That's how I feel as an American looking at how the parties attack each other.
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One party says, this is a good thing for America. Why doesn't the other party say, You're absolutely right. We all agree on that. Let's move forward.
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I want popcorn and lemonade stands on every corner in LA.
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Going back in time, would you have endorsed Caruso knowing what you know now?
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It's been a couple nights in a row. I'm pretty beat.
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Do you think there was any reason for her to be in Ghana?
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She was in a palace having cocktails.
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Should she even be going to Ghana as the mayor of a city that has no economic interest in Ghana?
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And this whole thing about if we disagree, the policy generally is wrong, which is, I think, distinguishing the policy from the party. Do you think California has a chance of electing a Republican governor in 26? Do you think that that chance is now greater than 50 percent after the wildfires?
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companies that are selling that data. There's U.S. companies that are buying that data. Any third party can access that data if they want to buy it in one of the markets. That stuff exists. It's existed for a very long time.
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Yeah, you litigate the outcome. You don't litigate the methods.
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Jason, it's not about trusting China. And you keep trying to characterize it as like people being pro-China if they're pro-free speech or they're pro-giving people options. It's not the only platform you can have free speech. You continue to make assumptions about security when there are security issues with a lot of apps and security issues with a lot of phones.
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Do you consider yourself to be her representative? She's not a citizen of the United States. She doesn't have a legal right to vote. Are you representing that undocumented non-American person?
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That lives there, regardless of their citizenry.
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But as a Congress member, you believe that you should represent non-Americans that happen to be domiciled in your region, in your district.
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Well, the alternative point of view, someone would say, I'll play the devil's advocate here. They would say, but there is another American. Who is qualified to be a dental hygienist, who cannot get a job, who would be getting paid more because they are a citizen and they are legal and documented. This person is undercharging their employer and they are taking a job away from America.
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And that's what the counter argument would be from some people.
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I've always viewed this to be more of a demand part of the equation for growing the US population is you can actually increase the economic growth. So let's put a number on this.
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No, no, it's not that simple. And I'm really hungover today, so I'm not going to be super articulate about it.
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Yeah, hard. So obviously being empathetic, I think for me would always be a priority. That person should not lose their job, lose their life. That's a very hard circumstance. At the same time, there are a lot of Americans who feel they are getting underpaid, that they don't have jobs. And there's empathy that I think is part of the alternative side of that equation.
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You want to join for that?
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Because I heard he's a guy that if you sit down with him and have a long-form conversation, you get a lot more than what the short-form media bites have been about him. So I'd actually be...
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Or maybe you can tell us your point of view on how much of an impact Doge can have. I don't know if you've talked.
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But I agree with you. I'm an immigrant. I think the immigrants are the most patriotic. That's why I believe in it. It's because of you, Freeburg. Well, I mean, you should. You've done great things and look what you're going to do for potatoes. Here I am moving here from... South Africa. South Africa when I was six years old and I'm hanging out in Washington, D.C. with a congressman.
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And how many jobs have you created? The president and the vice president. I get to meet all these people and hang out with them.
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Ohalo is the name of my company. But I appreciate it. I think my company might actually be in your district. You cover Santa Cruz County?
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Let me ask you a question. Do you think the United States should spend $200 billion to acquire Greenland from Denmark? Denmark has $150 billion debt. They could build a public pension plan.
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Even though we intervene in foreign elections and use military force to overturn foreign governments?
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You know, if you ever need a hype man or a campaign manager, you got to go. Let's go. When you do your run for governor, there's your guy.
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No, no, hold on. I want to hear the Greenland answer. Yeah, Greenland.
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So you're saying we could achieve our objectives without it becoming a territory.
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If you watch some of the interviews that have come out on Twitter from the people that live in Greenland, they're sick of the socialist, you know, kind of overseers. I think they do want to have a different way of governing I don't know, man.
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It sounds pretty amazing. Yeah, but it is. I mean, look, I don't think that you're necessarily getting that. What about Puerto Rico? It's an important question is like, does the United States need territorial dominion to achieve its strategic objectives?
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Why are you stopping at two? Exactly. Why are you stopping at two?
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Are you running for governor of California?
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But didn't I see a rumor this week that someone said something that you were?
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I'll give him that, bro. That's a wrap.
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Yeah.
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It's like, oh, it's another trillion.
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Let's just talk about the other long-term challenge and your point of view on the solution. What's going to happen to Social Security by 2030, 2032, 2033? Where is this headed?
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And sorry, is that ultimately necessary? We need to change Social Security. And when do we have to change it by? And now that the election is over, because every politician is scared to talk about Social Security because everyone's got an election coming up. Are we going to hear something different this time around?
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Or is it always going to be the kick the can down the road with Social Security and whatever? It's just such a golden goose. No one can talk about it. No one can touch it.
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Libertarian always wins for me.
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And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you guys.
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I don't think that pre the emergence of the pandemic, that there was nefarious motives
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It might have been a mistake in hindsight, but... Yeah, for many years, particularly following the original SARS pandemic, there was a lot of conversations around how do we get in front of the next pandemic? How do we figure out what's coming? And how do we prepare for it? And there was a lot of research that was launched to try and resolve that key question. This is like the movie 12 Monkeys.
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You guys ever see that movie? I think at one point. Yeah, sure. It's like, does the effort to try and stop the problem cause the problem?
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I think that from my point of view, there's a very high probability that there was some leak that meant that the work that was going on to try and get in front of the next pandemic and understand what we could do to prepare ourselves and what vaccines can be developed and so on actually led to the pandemic. So then when that happens, how do you respond when you're sitting in that seat?
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That's, that's the key question that I think this committee is uncovering.
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Yeah, I think that these guys definitely didn't want, I think what they were trying to do was prevent that from being the focal point and protect their own asses at the same time. Do you think they should go to jail? I don't know the extent of it yet. It'd be good to get more information from this whole thing.
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I will say this guy that gave testimony last week where he was like deliberately changing the names of people in the email, Anderson, and he put the dollar sign so that you couldn't find that email when you did a FOIA search. He knew what he was doing.
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What would you guys do if you're sitting in a policymaker's seat today and you're being offered by scientists this ability to go and figure out what the next big virus will be and start to make plans for getting in front of it by understanding the biology of these viruses, by seeing where they're going to evolve to, and by trying to get in front of the next pandemic so that we can
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protect the population? Do you guys support that sort of research? And what are the questions you ask? So let's, you know, rewind 15 years, pretend Fauci doesn't get to make those decisions. You guys are the policymakers. And folks say SARS just happened. We want to do this research. We want to figure out how to get free.
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So, Sax, I am going to push back because that is not conclusively true. What you're saying is something that some people have claimed, but there are other scientists, including papers published recently in The Lancet and other pretty reputable medical journals and research journals,
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that indicate that the evolution seen in the fear and cleavage site can be traced back to an evolutionary origin, not necessarily to a human engineered origin. So I want to just make that clear that that is a possibility. I'm not dismissing it, but I'm not supporting the other side. I'm saying we have work to do to figure this out, just to be clear.
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I want to ask you guys, what do you do? So forget about, oh, there's bad guys, Fauci's a bad guy. What do you do to protect the world against the next pandemic?
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So first of all, who's we?
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The Saks coin is down to eight grand.
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Well, I think the key question to your point is they're a macroeconomic reason for a slowdown in their business. They're forecasting for this next fiscal year, revenue growth of only 8% to 9%. And for this next quarter, it's basically a flat revenue quarter relative to the past quarter. So for this fiscal year, $38 billion of top line revenue, $9 billion of operating cash flow.
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And with the market cap coming down by 20%, the stock's at a $200 billion valuation. So it's trading at, you know, call it roughly 20 times their operating cash flow forecast with sub 10% revenue growth. And that's basically where treasuries trade, right? Because treasury yields... For a 30-year treasury, you can get 4.7% today.
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That's about 20x, right? So that's about where the multiple is on this Salesforce stock. So I think it really begs the question on, is there a macroeconomic force where the enterprise is spending less because of a revenue slowdown in the economy, which we saw in the latest GDP report.
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That's number one that could be driving this and will affect ultimately the multiple for all these enterprise SaaS companies. Or number two, is there a shifting underway in the SaaS business model that the premium that SaaS companies were able to charge in the pricing model on a per seat basis and the dollars that they're able to charge per employee or per user
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is so significant relative to what that enterprise can build themselves now with the commoditization available to them under this new era of AI and the ability to build tools internally or the ability for competitors to emerge with significantly underpriced alternatives because they can use generative AI to make software that can compete.
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And then there's this other question, because Salesforce has been leaning in heavily on the generative AI capabilities that they're offering their customers. And it seems like the question is, are enterprises waiting to see the value of that generative AI service capability? Is it worth paying for today? Should I wait and see?
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Or is it actually indicating that there's a big commoditization and generative AI underway?
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Meaning, why do I have to pay Salesforce a bunch of money when I can use some open source third-party tool or some more freely available tool?
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Yeah, I mean, if you look at this, we are at, what is it, 3.6% annualized CPI inflation and 1.3% annualized GDP growth. and a 4.7% 30-year treasury yield. This is, I don't know what else is more definitional of stagflation. The economy is not growing, prices are going up, and the cost to borrow has gone through the roof.
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Just to jump back for a second on the Salesforce point. So, you know, Salesforce faces these challenges, but it's still led by Mark Benioff. Absolutely. That dude's tremendous.
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And if you look at the performance of the average public company, regardless of the sector that that business operates in, that is run by a hired CEO versus run by a founder CEO, the founder public companies that have gone public, achieved a $10 billion market cap, and are still founder run as the CEO from there, outperform nearly any index you look at.
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Good for you. Sorry, I'll just say, I've heard the same thing and I told friends and others that have reached out, why are you associating yourself with people that are doing a fundraiser for Trump?
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And this is, I think, like a really key point. You could probably put together, I think some people have done this, put together a founder portfolio, but I wouldn't count out Benioff just because of some of the stuff that we've talked about. That's my view. Founders can and will maneuver their way to success. That is the hunger of the entrepreneur.
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I don't know the, I mean, all these founders, I don't know how to pick one. I mean, what are you asking?
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And I said, exactly because I think it's really important that people can have different political interests, different points of view, different beliefs, and still be friends and still have a conversation. If we can model that in any way,
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I think it moves the needle because this whole thing where you only speak with, only hang out with, only talk to, only have dinner with people that you agree with, I think is exactly what got us in the mess that we're in today. People need to have a broader perspective.
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Freeberg, your take. No, I mean, it felt like this was always a win-win trial for Trump. If he gets convicted, then, you know, the conversation that we're hearing now, you know, this was an unfair conviction. How could they do this? This is lawfare. And if he doesn't get convicted, they tried to burn him at the stake. How could they try and do that? Clearly he's innocent. He was made innocent.
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So, you know, it never really struck me as being a smart, I'm not a political guy, but the political calculus just seemed off on this entirely. It certainly wasn't clear what they were trying to accomplish. Either way, Trump looks good. And I think we saw tonight reports that his website for making donations crashed.
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A lot of people started making public statements on Twitter that are not typically Republican donors, that they're donating a lot of money to Donald Trump coming out of this. And so it is clearly infuriating a lot of people that, as Sachs points out, you know, something that some people are considering to be, you know, a bookkeeping or accounting crime has turned into 34 felony convictions.
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It feels unfair. It feels like the wrong decision. And it's going to infuriate people because people worry about the quality of the justice system. Anyone who's sitting in the middle as an independent or an undecided, I think it is much more likely that they are going to have sympathy for Donald Trump coming out of this, not admonishment.
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And I'll support you guys with whatever in terms of like being your friends. I'm not going to ever judge you guys in terms of what you believe in or choose to do.
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Not just SaaS, but also Dell. And in particular, Dell reported their stock is down 20% after hours. So I do wonder if there is a slow reckoning underway right now in technology markets That's, as we talked about in the show, a function of both kind of an economic slowdown, so enterprises making fewer investments, but they clearly called out the increased cost associated with AI.
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So they are spending quite a lot and their COGS on AI systems is much higher And so they're showing a lot more cash burn. And I think this is to Chamath's point. Chamath's been talking for a while.
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I think the market is sort of like saying- Well, I think the general statement might be made that perhaps the first AI mini bubble is bursting a bit.
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And particularly with respect to the accelerated expectations that public market investors had for public market technology stocks, that perhaps now is the time for a bit of a reckoning, that perhaps this isn't going to happen at the same margin level or the pace that folks had modeled. And this is going to cause a bit of a setback. I think pace is a very good point you're making.
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I also think that with the GDP slowdown that we've seen report that just came out this week, with a sub 2% US GDP growth, we are seeing an economic slowdown underway. There is going to be reduced spending. There is going to be reduced conversion of enterprise customers to buy anything. And so that is going to dramatically affect the market.
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We're looking at 5% 30-year treasury rates, which means that you are going to see multiple compression that's going to happen across the market for tech stocks. So this could be the beginning of what I think might be a slow contraction.
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fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, Wes.
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Well, I think it also enables a new class of investment opportunity given the low cost and the speed, it really highlights that maybe the opportunity to create value doesn't really sit at that level in the value chain, but further upstream. Bology made a comment on Twitter today that was pretty funny, or I think reflects this. The rapper? About the rapper?
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The moat. Which is true. At the end of the day, if model performance continues to improve, get cheaper, and it's so competitive that it commoditizes much faster than anyone even thought... then the value's gonna be created somewhere else in the value chain. Maybe it's not the wrapper. Maybe it's with the user. And maybe, by the way, here's an important point. Maybe it's further in the economy.
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You know, when electricity production took off in the United States, it's not like the companies are making a lot of money that are making all the electricity. It's the rest of the economy that accrues a lot of the value.
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It's competing for consumer usage. That's the model. That's the model is like consumer usage.
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And then Microsoft's down 6% today. And, you know, I think it's a... a window for OpenAI to say, we're going to go up against meta. This is it. We're going to be the players. And everyone's kind of ignoring Google at this time, by the way.
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Just great. I was talking with Ray about his new book, Which he just published on how countries go broke, obviously.
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Well, it is interesting because J. Cal, I will say the models are closed. You're right. There's the lawsuit with Scarlett Johansson for stealing her voice even when she said no.
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There's a real question, and people have asked, New York Times, and then there's now the question about YouTube data being used to train the video models. So there's a lot of being on their heels a little bit. So I definitely see your point. Stealing.
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But I mean, Chamath, it's open source. Does it not kind of- So this is my point.
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Well, let me ask you another question. Let's assume that we start the world of AI today. So there's no legacy of the last three years. And you wake up today and there's this open source model that's 670 billion parameters. You can run it on your desktop computer. It's completely available. Everything's completely transparent.
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And I ask you the question, forget about all the big companies that are involved in everyone's strategy historically. What's the model today to build value here? Where do you build value? equity value as a business? If you're gonna start a company, if you're gonna invest as an investor, where do you go?
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Travis, what company do you start today? If you start a company today... given where the world is at, given the open source models, like what do you do?
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Like, you know, the question is, did we... Cheap oil in the United States drove the industrial revolution, right? And like when we started discovering oil, suddenly we were able to build factories and make stuff that we never imagined possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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How's China going to operate differently than the US, Travis, from your experience, your point of view? Tell us a little bit about the culture and business ethics in China, particularly as it relates to AI development.
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Well, I think he talks a lot about the historical context of what's gone on with the debt cycles in different countries. And... Basically, at the end of the book, he has a pretty, I think, important recommendation to try and get the U.S. to roughly 3% of GDP as our net deficit, net of all expense, including interest expense. So that's the recommendation to the administration.
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Doesn't Meituan do drone delivery and stuff?
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If the US finds a path, I mean, let's talk about like what happened with sanctions in Russia and other prior kind of sanctioning efforts around the world. But as you kind of close the floodgates and close access, the buyer... or the receiver of those goods or that capital are gonna look elsewhere. They're gonna look to create a market somewhere else.
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And so if we do cut off access to Nvidia chips, we do cut off access to US exports, are we not kind of recognizing that the second order effect of that is that China will take IP that they've stolen, copies that they've made, to Travis's point, and develop and build out their own fabs. And they'll find ways to copy the ASML technology. And at the end of the day, there's a lot to put together.
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And I know it's deeply technically complex, but if ever there were a group of people in the history of human civilization to pull it off, it's probably the modern Chinese to be able to say, let's go build our own- It's worse than that. Our own infrastructure.
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I'm just not sure it solves the problem is my point.
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Or AI ushers in an era of extraordinary abundance, and that abundance ultimately reduces the drive for conflict and things are better off.
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The rumor today was they're raising $40 billion at a $340 billion pre-money with Masa potentially being the lead. I would love Travis's read on this because Travis has taken large money from Masa in the past and has been through this, but... How does he think about and make this decision?
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Obviously, we all know, and I mentioned you guys, the meeting I had with him last summer, where he basically kicked me out of the room because my company is not generative AI. Like someone said, you should go meet with Mazza. So I'm like, sure, I'll sit down with him and start talking. And he just like looked at me and he's like, this is not generative AI. I only do generative AI.
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I think your company will be very successful. You will be very successful. Goodbye. And he just walked out. And that was like the end of the meeting. That's so great. Yeah. Well, that's all he's doing now. So this is the big bet, right?
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DoorDash. And so in this open AI context, Travis, I mean, like just knowing what you know about AI, is this going to be a competitive advantage for Sam to raise $40 billion? Where does it go when he's up against, we don't know what in China, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta?
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Well, it seems like there's some degree of relationship between the Stargate announcement with Masa and Sam standing up there with Larry and then Satya showing up in the conversation as well. And this raise and the idea that more hardware, more infrastructure, faster creates a moat.
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And I guess that's the real thing you have to believe, which becomes harder to believe in the context of what happened in the last week. I personally think that these models are, and I've said this for a while, it doesn't make sense to have one large do-everything model.
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This mixture of experts, architecture, ultimately you can kind of think about taking a large model, making two copies of it, and then trying to shrink each model down. to whatever the necessary so that you run two models in less frequently, meaning that that combination of two models uses less power and takes less time.
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And then you do the same thing again, and you shrink it down to four and then 12. And eventually, you have lots of smaller models, some of which, in some cases are experts at one thing like doing mathematics or reading or writing.
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But the reality is we don't know how, whether humans have kind of thought about the world the right way, that the AI may resolve to having smaller expert models that we don't really understand why that's the expert on something, but you have a network of very small kind of things that work together. And that ultimately leads to a like commoditization, not just in kind of
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model cost and development and runtime, but also in what's needed. Do you really create much of an advantage by having all these data centers? Do you create much of an advantage?
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And Reddit keeps giving- You're describing text. So you're describing text content, which is a fraction of where- Also video. This is important. So video, I think you can recognize that Google's YouTube content library is probably 100 to 200 times larger than the rest of the internet combined.
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Sorry, I believe in artists and their right to content. We've had a series of conversations that I feel very confident to tell you that they do have the right in a good chunk of that content, not in a lot of the copyrighted content that the big media companies have given them, but a lot of user generated content. They do have the right and they are using it and they're legally doing it.
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And then there's the separate kind of body of content, which I think comes, for example, from Tesla. Tesla has an extraordinary advantage that they were really pressured to put cameras on everything years ago. And that gives them this ability to build models that do self-driving. So I think that there's a lot more data advantage that arises in certain industry segments than others.
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And that's where the moat will lie. And that moat will allow you to actually build better products that get you a more persistent advantage in gathering more data. That's ultimately where I think this resolves to. It may not necessarily be about who's got the biggest data center network.
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I'm outing him as an eggplant. I'm a big Doge eggplant guy. Oh, so much eggplant.
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There's nothing that I would say is particularly surprising in the first week. A lot of this was kind of talked about leading up to the inauguration. Vivek and Elon published their piece in the Wall Street Journal a couple of weeks ago.
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They talked about the mechanisms of action that they could utilize to kind of drive reduction in cost, one of which was come back to the office, another one of which is you know, giving people a buyout offer. And by the way, the buyout offer is not new. Bill Clinton did the same thing during his presidency.
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If you guys remember when he tried to balance the budget, get to a surplus, which he did successfully. And his intention was to actually reduce U.S. debt to zero by the year 2013. And he had a very specific economic and fiscal plan for doing that, which he put into place. Incredible investment. era. I think we're seeing them take the actions that they said they would do.
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They said they would demand to employees, federal employees, come back to the office, and they assumed some degree of attrition from that, and now the buyout offer. And we'll see how far things go with the courts with respect to their ability to stop a legislative or statutorily mandated spending.
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There's a big question mark here on how much authority the executive branch has in stopping spending and how much they're not allowed to stop because it's demanded by law. It's demanded by Congress and acts or laws that have passed. And so that's gonna be the big test here. Over the next couple of months, a lot of lawsuits will fly.
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The courts will ultimately adjudicate and we'll see how far the Doge intention can take things. And then there's a separate set of efforts around legislative action here. There's about a $2 trillion annual deficit right now in the United States federal government, $2 trillion a year.
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And if you look at the Dalio book on why countries go broke, there's a pretty simple kind of arithmetic in there, which is not complicated. It's just at the end of the day, the U.S. needs to get our federal deficit down below 3% of GDP, which means we've got to cut about a trillion, trillion one of spending. If we can do that, then we're in kind of a more economically sound place.
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By the way, a really important point, which is in the Dalio interview, as you cut spending, interest rates will come down because right now there's a pretty significant sell-off in treasuries and a lot of risk associated with the US's ability to deliver its debt obligations over the next 30 years, which is why 30-year treasuries are at 5% right now.
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Even though the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, the rate on treasuries is going up. People are still selling off treasuries. That will stop.
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And so as we cut spending, we also will see that there will be less inflation. And the U.S. ability to pay back their debt obligations over the next 30 years goes up. So the rates will come down. And so there's actually a really nice kind of cyclical effect as these cuts start to come into play. The rate at which you can make the cuts actually affects the amount of cuts you have to make.
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The faster you make the cuts, the less you have to cut. And that's a really key kind of principle going into this, which I think we should expect a big whirlwind of cutting in the next couple of months or an attempt to. The courts will adjudicate what needs to be legislated, and then they're going to go to Congress and start to try and get some of these cuts in.
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But I will tell you once again, after our visit in D.C. last week, there was not a single member of Congress that I spoke with who views cutting to be a mandate for them in the laws that they're trying to pass. They all have a very different kind of agenda than Doge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, a lot of it's interest. Remember, we've got a trillion dollars a year of interest payments now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Can we talk to Travis about Waymo now? Travis, can I ask, have you taken a production Waymo? Yes. What do you think about it? And do you think that's the future of transportation? And how does Uber play into the self-driving car business now?
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That's super interesting, Travis. It's almost like the idea that we all talk about today is data centers and data centers need their own power substations in order to meet the power demands. But if we do see a world of robotics
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automation generally, and we've got these kind of moving robotic systems in our world, they need to have a similar sort of like power demand net that probably looks like, hey, they all go into their recharge building and they get recharged, whether they're a car or a humanoid robot or a food delivery robot on the sidewalk or whatever, or a drone, and they just kind of get recharged, huh?
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I think it's pretty timely with the change in administration. Anyway, great topics to talk through and really important book.
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Nearly 30% of the debt is going to get refinanced this year.
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The last auction barely had 2x coverage.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Watch the Dalio interview because this is exactly the topic he covers. As we end up needing to refinance this debt, the rates climb, the appetite isn't there, and it becomes a spiral. That's why we have to cut fast in terms of the deficit to basically attract the market. Now, you know, the market's moved a little bit, right? So on January 13th, the 30-year treasury peaked at exactly 5%.
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And it's come down today, it's at 4.77. So a little bit of relief since that peak as kind of the administration's gone into office and actually taken action. But as more of this action is realized, if people...
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do appreciate and DOJA is successful and the court's adjudication does allow reduction in spending, which I think is the intention, I think we could see this rate drop from 478 much more significantly than where it is. And that'll create a great deal of relief.
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I got a text from someone who is pretty senior in capital markets, thinks it's going to go to five and a half percent before it goes down. So they think that there's going to be a little bit more of a turbulent trend.
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We had a bowl builder 10 years ago, or 2015, yeah, 2016. Diego saw it. He actually visited it when we built it. And we designed the system around a canister mechanism. So all the food prep was done in a similar sort of like commissary model. And then it was loaded in bulk and then put into little canisters. And there were 30 slots in the canister dispenser.
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except you cannot with Medicare and Social Security. Discretionary spending is like 20%. The mandatory spending, Social Security... Medicare, Medicaid, these are the larger outlay. And this is where we come back to the fact that this will never get addressed until it has to be because of the political suicide that arises.
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And then the canister would move down the device, open up, and you could assemble bowls with rice and beans and all sorts of stuff. The whole thing was automated. And we were in the process of building out our first automated store when I actually took a medical leave of absence from ITSA. And ultimately, the company did not get it into production. But we had great working demos.
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And it was a very... Yeah, I mean, it was just definitely a no-brainer that this was going to happen. So you must love this. You love this. Yeah, and at the time, we actually had... I'll tell you guys this. We actually had a term sheet with Chipotle. This was nine years ago to actually put this into Chipotle stores. And then we were in the early conversations with Sweetgreen at the time as well.
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And obviously, Jonathan and team have gone on to develop their own system. But basically, you can reduce so much of QSR down to this bowl-based system. and automated as Travis is doing. So it's just a no brainer. And it's certainly necessary in a time when there's either a labor shortage or labor price inflation that's causing a real issue with the ability.
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And yeah, this is the original automats in New York in the early 20th century.
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But yeah, they had a commissary behind that wall and they made like plates of food. You put in there, you put a quarter in, you turn the knob and you get your meal out.
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Yeah.
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That's the challenge that they all had.
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When we did this early at Eatsa, it was like food delivery was very early. We built these Eatsa restaurants that were smaller footprint. We had an 800 square foot restaurant that was doing 3 million a year in revenue. And it had a handful of people working in it, but we were putting about 800 people an hour during the lunch rush through that restaurant, ordering custom bowls.
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This was by one market, right? One market, exactly.
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The czar's back. Zax, any anecdotes you want to share about life in DC? How exciting it's been in the administration, the first
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You mean the Treasury building?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I think the Optimus has the highest alpha, but the highest beta. So, you know, more upside than anything else. Just unclear how... You get there, what the path is and the capital requirements. And I think there's going to be a lot of commoditization in this space. But the ride sharing is built in. It's low beta and significant alpha.
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Yeah, optimist ride share.
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It was the original self-driving car company that Google set up. And then they set up Google X around it.
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Aurora was set up by Chris Urmson. He was the original engineering lead on Waymo inside of Google. When they did a management changeover, there was a big falling out. A lot of people ended up leaving the Waymo program. Chris left, took a bunch of people with him and started Aurora, which was basically software to do autonomous driving. that they were then going to license into OEMs.
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So that company got backed by a bunch of VCs and ended up going public via SPAC. And it's publicly traded today.
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They made an investment in it.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
But again, some of these guys are trying to make software for OEMs so that the OEMs don't have to build their own autonomous platform. And some of them are trying to make a driving service like Waymo. And then some of them are like Tesla has a driving car. They actually sell cars. So different models. Yeah. So they're all going to convert. Yeah.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah, they're cool. They just move around. You did take one. Yeah. They're all over the city. You can take them in San Francisco now.
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Yeah. And there's like a wait list and then you get on it and, you know, they're letting people on and then you just get on it and go for a ride.
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Friedberg, your thoughts? In California, non-competes are not enforceable, but outside of California, they are, and they're often used. Like in the agriculture industry,
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industry in the ag inputs industry, where folks are developing new technology, mostly it companies based in the Midwest and East Coast, as you guys know, in financial services as well, they're often used that if you work for one company, because you have a lot of trade secrets, you can't carry them over to others.
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But in Silicon Valley, we're very used to engineers, product managers, executives, taking all of the knowledge and capabilities that they've developed at one business and leveraging that into a new role, it creates a dynamically competitive
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marketplace it also inflates obviously costs because you're willing to pay more for someone who's worked directly at a competitor and has deep knowledge but they are bringing ip often and there is you know a real risk that they take something from your company that you've invested in them to understand then they take it to your competitor so i i see both sides of this i think non-competes
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Give companies the ability to invest in employees and feel confident that the knowledge and information and support they're providing to those employees doesn't ultimately find its way over to a competitor. And it gives you a rationale for paying more to your employees. It actually inflates salaries.
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If I'm fearful that someone might leave and take knowledge with them, I'm going to share less with the employee. I'm going to pay them less. So I could see this going both ways. I'm really fairly torn on this issue. To be honest, I don't know what the right answer is. Or if there really is a strong kind of ethical case one way or the other.
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I think that non competes can both benefit and hurt employees and benefit and hurt companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Did you ever see that movie Spanish Prisoner starring Steve Martin? Oh, yeah.
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God, that's a deep pull. Steve Martin plays the con man that goes to this guy and the guy is like a chemical engineer. Campbell Scott is the guy's name, the actor. And he has like a process for making a chemical and it's worth so much money. And the whole movie is Steve Martin conning him into telling him the chemical process. And eventually he took it.
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He was going to give him all this money, hire him. And then he disappeared once he got the knowledge. And that was the end of it. It's a great, great film. Shout out David Mamet. David Mamet, exactly. Yeah, fantastic. But I think there's a lot of
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investment that goes into intellectual property businesses that include things like chemical engineering, obviously financial services, trading companies, algos in hedge funds, and a lot in software, that if you can access that intellectual property, without stealing it, but actually hiring an employee that has it in their head, you gain quite a lot.
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So I have had a lot of folks that I know in other industries outside of tech or software where California non-competes are not enforceable that aren't allowed to go work at a competitor for one year, two years, three years.
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Yeah, but the rate of change here is crazy. Like the rate at which software changes, I think is quite distinct from the rate at which, for example, a chemical engineering process might change. Where you learn that process, you spend $200 million building a system, and then that employee can go and tell it to someone else and suddenly changes everything about that other business. So I don't know.
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I feel like there's something about software that gives us this point of view that maybe it doesn't matter, but in other industries it might.
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I'll tell you a funny story. We had a meeting with the exec team from Apple when I was at Google. And Marissa Mayer and Sergey and myself and one other person went to the meeting.
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And Marissa's idea was, why don't we pitch Apple that we could put a cache of the internet in 200 megabytes, like the most important 200 megabytes of the internet, cache it and put it on the iPod so you could access the internet on the iPod.
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So basically search a cached version of the web. And that was the pitch. And they kind of were like radio silent. They didn't respond to the pitch. And then they kind of blank-faced stared at us. Two years later, the iPhone came out.
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Yeah, I met him at Macworld in 2003. He was walking the floor. It was at Moscone. I remember it because I've been a Mac user since 1984. First Mac original. I still have it in my office. Diehard, diehard Mac fan. I read every edition of Macworld, Mac user, Mac week. And so to meet him on the floor walking around, I was just like a 22-year-old kid. I was freaking out. It was awesome.
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Only time I met him.
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I don't agree that the Chinese government will shut it down. I certainly don't have any insight into what the Chinese government is discussing or thinking about doing. But there's a lot of money to be made here. So if I'm ByteDance, I'm very likely going to hire a bunch of bankers, run an auction process and sell this thing. And I have a year to do it.
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This is a business that did $14 billion in revenue last year, according to a published report. 170 million Americans are active users of TikTok. Our revenue grew 40% plus last year. So I don't know how they would just say, hey, let's write this thing off and shut it down when we could probably generate.
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But now let's assume that they let it go through. Think about the implications. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs get hired to run a joint process to auction this thing off, right? They're going to run this process for a period of months. There's only a certain number of folks that could actually make a bid to buy this thing.
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Maybe some of the big guys in private equity, Silver Lake and others, try and pull some capital together to buy it. But I think it's more likely a big company tries to buy it. CFIUS and Antitrust will probably not be as relevant here as it normally would be. Certainly, CFIUS wouldn't be because it's being completely divested.
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Antitrust, there's a real question on whether they're going to be given some leeway. But even if antitrust does apply, who could buy TikTok in the US? There's only a handful of companies that could or would. Oracle, maybe Microsoft.
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That it's not a what?
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Yeah. Absolutely. I do think that there's a really interesting... Maybe Netflix. So I think that there's a really interesting rewrite of the landscape a little bit here, where some of the traditional big tech companies, Meta, Google, have really had total control over the consumer media consumption on the internet, that there's going to be a real difference here that might...
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be triggered in how the industry kind of is sorted based on the TikTok auction, if it does happen. And I think it's probably, look, we could argue all day about what the Chinese are going to do. But if it does go through, the next story you're going to see in the Wall Street Journal is how much money the bankers are going to make on fees running the auction here.
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And then the next story you'll see after that is going to be about how the tech and media landscape has been reshuffled and rewritten by the TikTok deal.
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There was a poll published yesterday, Bloomberg News Morning Consult surveyed 4,900 registered voters in seven swing states. And the poll showed that 77% of registered voters in those states support basically an asset tax on ultra high net worth people, people worth over $100 million to keep social security intact. So I think that's a strong indication of where things are headed generally.
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We can debate the tactics and the nuance of this election cycle. But as we all have talked about and know, Social Security becomes de facto bankrupt by 2033, perhaps earlier. So we have a few years to figure out whether we cut Social Security benefits in this country or find alternative ways to fund it.
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And it's pretty evident from this poll that Americans are not in support of raising the minimum age from 67 to 69, which was one of the questions in here. Only 25% of Americans support raising the minimum age for Social Security from 67 to 69. Meanwhile, 77% strongly support a tax on... ultra high net worth to fund the gap and the funding need.
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No, it doesn't. And I don't think that that's what really matters. I think most folks are voting for themselves, their particular needs, and the majority of people need more support.
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I think that's the inevitable trend. I'm just saying, I don't know how it's going to manifest. But I think it's inevitable that we're going to raise federal revenue through some form of taxation that's going to feel deeply uncomfortable and inappropriate. And it's going to have negative economic consequences. And this is where the economic spiraling happens. that Malay has talked about.
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I would say the analogy for Google is Android. where Google open sourced the Android operating system because the handset manufacturers and some of the big software companies, so Nokia and Microsoft in particular, BlackBerry, had these closed proprietary operating systems.
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And then the telcos put their apps on and made money and basically had control over whether or not people could access Google and Google services through their phone. So the intention with open sourcing Android was to make sure that Google was not disadvantaged in their core business over time.
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I think that there's a similar analogy here that by open sourcing these models, they limit competition because VCs are no longer going to plow half a billion dollars into a foundational model development company. So you limit the commercial interest and the commercial value. of foundational models.
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Now, the CapEx question is a really hard one to diagnose because we don't know how they're spending the money, where they're spending the money, what they're doing in there. I think that it's a really important sign that founder-led companies with these voting rights
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you know, have the ability to make these sorts of hard decisions that it might be very difficult for a management by committee group to make. Got it. Look at how Mark is making these decisions and Elon is making big, tough decisions that it would very likely be pushed back on if they didn't have the voting rights, if they didn't have the control over the company that they had.
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There you go.
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Yeah, I find it annoying to just listening to it.
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The fair use case is interesting, for sure.
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I think the other... The interesting part of the other story is that the reason all the stuff came out about the equity clawbacks was because the safety team quit and it got leaked during that process. All right.
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That one, I think begs a little bit more of a question of...
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I don't know. I mean, it could be some bad bureaucracy, bad politicking, not being listened to. But I think the real interesting question is who's going to ask these guys what's really going on from a technology perspective and what is that going to reveal? Because these guys clearly are on the frontier of model development and the performance of models. And so my guess is...
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There are certain regulatory people who are going to have interest in the fact that this team just left. They're going to make a phone call. They're going to ask this team to come in and have a conversation. And they're going to start to ask a lot of questions about what the state of technology is over there. And I suspect that some things are going to start to come out.
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I think that the Cisco analogy, it's a pretty different situation because Cisco evolved the business to become much more enterprise centric. And they were able to run an M&A process like we see with enterprise software, where they could acquire and roll up lots of different product companies and sell into their enterprise channel. So do a lot of cross-selling.
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NVIDIA is not a super acquisitive business and it doesn't make as much sense because they're selling much more kind of infrastructure tools, whereas Cisco moved really high up in the enterprise stack. They were selling stuff into office buildings, they were selling software, they did acquisitions to kind of fully integrate.
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They had a very diverse set of products that were selling through an enterprise channel, further up the value stack, and a pretty distributed customer base, no serious concentration. Even though they did sell a lot into data centers, they were also selling to telcos, they were selling to enterprises, they were selling to governments, and so on.
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If you look at NVIDIA's revenue, they did $26 billion of total revenue in the quarter, $22 billion of which was data center, and about 40% of that was from the top four hyperscalers. So a full one-third of Nvidia's revenue in the quarter came from, I believe it's Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta.
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And so between those four businesses, you know that those companies each have, I believe, at least over or close to $100 billion of cash sitting on their balance sheet. They can't find great places to invest that cash to grow revenue. And so they've rationalized away the idea that they will make CapEx investments to build over the next five to 10 years. And this is where that money flows.
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So I think that they're going to have less maneuvering capability than Cisco had in the future. And obviously, there's this deep concentration risk, which is going to be deeply challenging.
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They're under earning. They're under earning. And so the projection- So this is obvious.
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I think the whole thing comes down to the projection of an individual or a household of their lived experience onto the economy. You assume that because you're having a tough time, the economy is bad. And the economy as a definition for them is how do I earn and how do I spend?
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And if I'm under earning, that means there must be serious job loss and things are more expensive and my ability to purchase isn't improving. And so I think we're all kind of gonna end up on the same take on this one.
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I mean, Nick, if you wanna pull this image up, this is I think a helpful one, which is disposable personal income relative to outlays that folks are needing to spend more than they're making. So clearly indicating that they're feeling like they're under earning. So the projection of that is the economy is bad without recognizing that it is an inflationary experience.
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Whereas economists use the definition of quote economic growth being gross production, gross product. And so if gross product or gross revenue is going up, they're like, oh, the economy is healthy. We're growing. But the truth is we're funding that growth with leverage. at the national level, the federal level, and at the household and domestic level.
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We are borrowing money to inflate the revenue numbers. And so the GDP goes up, but the debt is going up higher. And so the ability for folks to support themselves and buy things that they want to buy and continue to improve their condition in life has declined, things are getting worse.
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And if you go to the next image, as Sax pointed out already, here's the image of total outstanding credit card debt over a trillion dollars, it's totally spiked. And it's gonna continue to spike just like federal debt because of the next chart, which is the sudden jump in interest rates. So we've seen credit card interest rates jump from 12% on average 10 years ago to 21.19% right now.
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And it was at 14% at the end of 2022. So we've gone from 14% average credit card interest rates to 22% now in just about 20 to 24 months. And so the projection that I think of the quote, economy must be bad is resulted from the fact that income to spending is actually pretty negative. So here's the real median family income. This actually only goes through 2019.
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So it doesn't even capture the era that we're talking about, but this has been going on for quite some time that the average American's ability to improve their condition has largely been driven by their ability to borrow, not by their earnings.
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And this has created a substantial set of precedents that we're now running into a wall with interest rates spiking and inflation hitting us because of the overall federal debt that we've taken on.
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This is incredible.
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Yeah, but remember what McDonald's and other fast food companies have said is that labor costs have climbed. Here's a chart on labor costs that Nick can pull up. Workers at Walmart and McDonald's have had pay increases, but this has really been to try and keep up with inflation, the inflation of other costs. So a lot of people will say, oh, they're price gouging.
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They're ripping off consumers to make profits for shareholders. But the truth is the biggest component of running those restaurants is labor. And labor has gotten more expensive because the employees that work there have to earn enough to pay their bills and to afford their food. And this is the circular effect of inflation. It finds its way all through the economy.
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It filters down and it eventually hits everyone.
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I go every week. I cannot believe how expensive things... I mean, some of the stuff, I was just blown away how expensive things... It's bonkers.
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I think we should all go to Tokyo for a weekend and do some fruit tasting in Tokyo.
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A Democrat may- And all rationalized.
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Yeah, the Consumer Reports put out a really interesting or what has become pretty widely covered now story a couple of weeks ago where they measure phthalates in common foods. And Nick, if you want to just pull up the image, that's been repeated in a lot of media, a lot of press. People were going nuts over this.
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Phthalates are these chemical compounds that are used in plastics or used with plastics to soften them. So when you make plastics, you can kind of, you know, make them softer and form them into all sorts of different shapes and use them for different applications like plastic bags or wraps or cubes or all sorts of things.
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And phthalates are these kind of smaller molecules that kind of go along with the polymers that are the basis of the plastics. And they measure phthalates, which are known to be toxic in terms of if you get enough of them, they can be carcinogenic and cause cancer. And they showed that every product they tested had phthalates in it.
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Wendy's chicken nuggets had, you know, 33,000 nanograms per serving.
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Right. And just to be clear, guys, this is not just about packaging. Packaging plays a role, but the whole food supply chain, the way we wrap food, all of our water, all of our dust, all of the air we breathe, we have measured phthalates in everything. So these phthalates end up in the animals that are used to make milk and the animals that people eat.
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They end up in the water that goes into the vegetables that we grow in the ground. They end up being used to make the little plastic jars that we feed our kids out of, the little yogurt pouches that our kids drink out of, everything, just to move food around in plastic packaging.
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They are eating things that have plastics in them. Plastics in them. But we also don't know.
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We're eating the plastic. And it's also the fact that the way that they process the chicken and the material that they use and the packaging that they use and how they move this stuff from one place to another. You got bags that are holding chicken breasts that then get put in the thing. And then the oil is transported in plastic. So it's plastic all the way down. Guys, look at this.
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No, this is a really good point. Hold on, Chamath's making a really good point. Go ahead, Chamath. This is really good.
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Yeah. It is. And let me just tell you guys some stats about this. So we produce about 3 million tons of phthalates a year, creating them that we use in our industrial supply chain. The global market for phthalates is about $10 billion per year. We find it everywhere. In our tap water, as measured in the US in multiple places, there's about one microgram. So those were nanograms.
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So you kind of divide it by 1000. So that Annie's thing has 50 micrograms of phthalates in it, but there's about one microgram of phthalates per liter of water that you're drinking. Now, here's a study was done out of Germany, where they basically tried to estimate how much people were consuming.
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And on average, people consume or ingest about six micrograms of phthalates per kilogram of your body weight per day. So an adult male is consuming about 500 micrograms of phthalates per day. That's half a gram. per day, and the human body metabolizes and excretes it, it comes out. The EPA, all of the administrative agencies that oversee this stuff, they're like, it's okay, we metabolize it.
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As long as we don't consume more than we can metabolize, it's gonna be safe, because it's not gonna stay in our bodies, it's gonna wash out. Here's the problem. While it's in your body, while it's moving through your body, being metabolized, it is what's called an endocrine disruptor. And we talked about this in the past with respect to the sunscreens.
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These phthalates actually interfere with the hormones that are made by things like your pituitary gland, your thyroid, and even some of the hormones that are produced in testicle cells. There was another study done that really tried to estimate what the impact was. And here is a study that showed how do phthalates actually interact with different parts of the endocrine system.
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And they went through and they found all these places that biological hormones and the endocrine system are disrupted by the phthalates. And we'll put credit for everyone that shared these papers here later. And they basically showed the mechanism by which the phthalates are actually disrupting endocrine systems. Now, what is the endocrine system? We talked about endocrine disruptors in the past.
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The endocrine system is the interaction of hormones with cells in your body produced by all these different glands in your body, like your thyroid, your pituitary gland, and so on, controls things like growth, tissue development, reproductive tissue activity, like making sperm cells
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autonomic function like body temperature, blood pressure, sleep, heart rate regulation, injury and stress response, your mood, all of those things are regulated by your endocrine system. And so when the hormones or the proteins or peptides that are made by those glands are disrupted by these phthalates, it can actually disrupt those systems and mess them up.
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So while we're not consuming, generally speaking, enough phthalates to cause cancer, and therefore we all say, hey, it's okay, these phthalates aren't that bad, we're not gonna all die from cancer. The truth is there is demonstrations now on how they can actually disrupt the activity of your endocrine system, and as a result, have all of these deleterious effects.
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Another study done on 125 men out of China, this paper was done out of China, They saw damage to testicle cells that would die, testicle cells that would produce fewer sperm, and then testicle cells that produced sperm with extra nuclei. And they actually demonstrated this in rats. So the set of compounds can be fairly... disruptive. So now we'll go to the next story, right?
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And the next story is the one that everyone's writing about, which is, oh my God, there's plastic in balls. So a team at University of New Mexico that was published in the Journal of Toxicological Sciences just last week, they took 47 neutered dogs' testicles from a local pet clinic where they were getting neutered.
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And they found, on average, 128 micrograms per gram of microplastics in those testicles. And it was mostly polyvinyl chloride or one of the main plastics and polyethylene. And again, phthalates leach out of these plastics and leach into the cells.
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And then they went to the medical investigator's office and they found the testicles that were frozen for seven years because when they do a medical investigation and they keep all the body parts, they keep them on ice and then they throw them away after seven years. So before they threw them away, they got permission of humans. They got permission to use these testicles to figure out
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Or they're plastics, and they measure them.
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No, it's like when there's a homicide, or you don't know who died, or there's an investigation into why someone died, the coroner keeps the body parts in case it's needed for a police case later.
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Okay. You don't have these frozen balls on your driver's license to freeze my balls?
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Anyway, they got 23 of these balls from these bodies, and they found plastics, on average, 328 micrograms per gram of testicle in these balls.
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Well, we don't know, because we've never taken human tissue and tried to take it apart in a very detailed way to figure out how much plastic is there, what is it doing to our body? But now I just want to connect the dots. So now we have a sense that there's these phthalates and these other compounds that come with plastics that leak in that cause all this disruption.
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Separately, we're seeing this accumulation of these little plastic particles. And remember, plastics are polymers. They're long chains of monomers. And so they can be short chains. They can be long. So they break apart, break apart, break apart. And little tiny bits of them end up and they're very hard to metabolize. And they sit in your tissue. And then they can cause all this disruption.
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So, you know, I think these are like... I'm just going to say it.
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But you can't get away from it. It is everywhere.
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It's in the water. It's in the air. It's everywhere.
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I want to just push back on this because I don't want to limit it.
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I don't want to limit it to the food supply because here's the other thing. All of us are wearing clothes that use polymers, which are plastics. All of us are sitting at desks that have coatings of polymers on them. All of us have iPhones that use polymers. All of us
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drive cars, and the rubber, one of the ways that they found that plastic, these microparticles are getting in the air, is through tires. When we drive, little particulates end up in the atmosphere, we breathe them in, and then they end up in our body. Every part of our industrial supply chain uses polymers.
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Yeah, but let's say you're wearing clothing. Almost all of our clothes now, many of our clothes have polymers in them. We put it in the washing machine. It ends up in the water supply chain. We consume that water. It's very hard to say that there's a specific action. Our whole system has been inundated with these lower costs.
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Yeah, where do you start? My big takeaway is sort of like yours, which is almost impossible to alter this industry overnight, given how ubiquitous these compounds are in everything we do and touch, tires, phones, clothing, etc., But I think that this is going to trigger and is the beginning of a wave.
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I'm noticing that a lot of folks are going to start to pay attention in the food industry and start to figure out ways to represent low plastic, low phthalate food products as a way to kind of sell a more premium solution. I think that's been the trend historically with the food industry, Chamath, is to respond to your ask right now and to then show up with solutions.
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So I do think that that's... And just taking a step back. We don't have to use these. These are all based on fossil fuels. So the way we make plastics is we basically pull oil out of the ground and we turn it into these polymers. That's the basis of this chemical industry. We don't have to do that. With the same function, we can get the same function from what are called bioplastics.
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So these are compounds that can actually be much more biodegradable that are made with biological systems and not made from oil using synthetic chemicals systems. So I do think that there's a really...
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big opportunity for a wave of bioplastic alternatives, given that this is now becoming a little bit more obvious to folks that there is this kind of systemic problem, that this is ubiquitous, and that we do need to kind of address it.
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Let me play in. What are the bofas, Jason? Bova deez nuts.
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Is that your actual office behind you? Or is that a background, Jamal? That's my office. Yeah, yeah. So like every one of those books is coded in some of these compounds.
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Okay, good. All right. Well, everything else at the desk is made of all of those items. Yeah. Yeah.
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And you're, you're, you're pure. I'm assuming you're, you're, you're wearing a pure baby wool sweater, which doesn't have any polymer.
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But I think what's, what, what's, what's overwhelming about this problem, right?
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It is. What's overwhelming about this problem is the ubiquity of the problem. It's almost like asking, tell me everywhere that carbon is used. Like, imagine if you had to label every M&M you're eating. No, I know.
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I think we got to go into the source. So biopolymers are made by living organisms. They're typically longer chains of what are more like sugar molecules. And they can be used in a similar way that we're, they're not going to be as good as synthetic polymers that we use today.
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So a lot of our applications, a lot of our industry would have to be rebuilt if we really wanted to go back to redesign the whole system. But we got to redesign the whole system, Chamath. We're making everything out of these products because they're cheap. And because we can pull oil out of the ground and turn it into cheap stuff. And then it makes things affordable for everyone on earth.
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And that's how this industry emerged. You know, it was not like someone randomly came along and said, let's put plastics in everything because it's going to be good for people. It was a way to make products more accessible and more available and cheaper. And it's everywhere. And so I think there's this real question of like,
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what industrial synthetic chemistries do we use today as a species that we should rethink using and start at that level and then rebuild from there? And I think shining a light on this stuff and just talking about what these products are and how to find a way to start a system is really important.
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I think what we will see over time is that rather than have the ability to sue for their likeness, a lot of AI that is like a celebrity the value of it will arise from the celebrity's endorsement, not actually using the celebrity's features.
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Oh, okay. But. I thought you were like sitting at the store photographing banana.
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Yeah, but then how many people in your house handle your banana? Pause! Whoa, whoa.
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Make sense of it all. Yeah.
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I think everyone feels helpless and everyone wants to grasp on to something that they can do.
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Right, totally.
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So without the endorsement, I know everyone kind of wants to point to this idea of likeness, but I think that there's something about the authentic aspect of having the celebrity actually endorse and provide their endorsement their signature, their stamp on it. Restaurants are a good example. Some celebrity chef says, I was involved in making this menu.
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That's a lot different than mimicking the celebrity chef's menu from his restaurant, putting his or her name and brand on it. There's a bunch of videos on YouTube now. I don't know if you guys ever, you guys probably don't watch these, but I love watching these videos where like music producers make tracks and how they do it.
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Bye-bye. Bye-bye.
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And so many of these producers now are using AI tools, taking samples off of old records or other tracks, and then telling the AI, make something that sounds like this or looks like this, but isn't like this. And so there's enough of a transformation happening that it isn't a direct likeness.
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And then they're able to create entire vocal tracks without needing a singer or without needing the celebrity singer.
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Yeah, I'm in I'm in the like, like the content itself, I think is probably less like compelling. Oh, you go go after her because the voice sounds the same. But I do think that there's this element of like, what if you could then say, hey, you know, Britney Spears actually lent her voice to this track.
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No, I think there's probably going to be a lot of discovery to Sax's point that's going to show that they probably did. Yeah, the discovery is going to be juicy.
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In both of those cases, you guys have your exact image of you being shown to sell stuff. I think that in this case, it's also unique to ScarJo because she was the voice from her. If this were a voice sort of like Cameron Diaz or sort of like Julia Roberts, it wouldn't be as big a deal because it certainly got some differences to it. But it's because they're trying to mimic the movie Her.
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What do you guys think about the fact that they're not trying to say this is this person's voice, but they want to say like, hey, let's say you just can prompt the AI and say generate a voice that is sort of like movies that are comfortable and calming to people to listen to. And, you know, that we think people will be comfortable. And the AI generates something that sounds like ScarJo.
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but it's not deliberately trained on ScarJo.
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Is the public confused is the only test you need for you. What if there's two public actresses that both have similar voices and then they both claim, hey, you tried to make this sound like me. What do you do in that case, Jamal?
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Yeah, exactly. And did the CEO tweet her? I think your whole point about discovery is what is going to get them in trouble in this case. Because they were clearly trying to do an impersonation of her, right?
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So the proposed bill made no real change to the current spending level of the federal government at roughly $6.2 trillion on an annualized basis, which, by the way, is roughly, call it, 23% of GDP. Just to give you some context, in 1860, nearly 100 years after the founding of the United States government, federal spending to GDP was less than 1%.
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And it took off during the Civil War for a couple of years. But, you know, we're at these kind of like unprecedented levels year after year now, really speaking to how the federal government has grown, as we talked about many times, so much in our life.
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Yeah, our roads were really bad back then. Lots of problems, yeah. But remember, the objective of the republic was to have the states make local decisions about how to take care of their infrastructure. The national highway effort obviously changed that in the mid-20th century. But this was kind of the original intention of the Republic.
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It wasn't to have the federal government come in and employ people, provide insurance to people, provide energy markets to people, own football stadiums, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. If you go through the list of things in this bill, I think the $100 billion of natural disaster relief, everyone says that seems very reasonable. That's something the federal government should do.
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When we have a natural disaster, we need help, we need support. That's a great thing for the federal government to do. But think about the incentive it creates. It distorts markets. So we've talked about this in the past.
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in areas where you have a higher probability of natural disasters and people have paid a lot of money for their homes, pay a lot of money for infrastructure, should the federal government come in and rebuild those homes and provide capital to those individuals and those businesses to help them rebuild those homes if there's a high probability of natural disaster events happening again in the future?
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It means that the cost of insurance doesn't matter and the cost of real estate doesn't matter because the federal government effectively can come in and support those prices. In the same way, the federal government comes in and supports the prices in agricultural products through the work in the Farm Bill and through the biofuels mandates, which were also proposed to be extended in this thing.
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So the federal government's playing both a market role and also kind of this role that I think fills the gap where people want to have a customer where there isn't a customer and an employer where there isn't one. So how did we get to this point? So from a first principles perspective, we've kind of, I think, lost the narrative on what the federal government was meant to do.
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If you think about the simple rubric in a bill, like just go back some period of time and someone says, hey, I want something. I want to have this in this bill. And you're the representative that's supposed to vote on that bill and say yes or no. It's very hard to just say, no, we are not going to spend that money. What's the incentive to say no?
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The alternative is you say, yes, but give me X as well. There is an incentive in that response. And the incentive there is to get something for your electorate, the people that voted you in as a representative of the House, which is how we ended up at this point where everyone says, I want something if you're going to get something.
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And eventually the government, the federal government swells to spending roughly 24% of our GDP. Now, the biggest mistake I think the founding fathers made was that they didn't create constitutional limits on spending and enrichment. And this was because they had these deeply held philosophical beliefs that relied on the House of Representatives to provide a check by the people.
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If you read the Federalist Papers, and I went through a couple of these recently, and I used ChatGPT to help me kind of, you know, bring out some of, I think, the key points. But in the Federalist Papers 10 and 51, James Madison emphasized that the structure of government was meant to ensure that both state and federal governments would limit each other's excesses, including their financial ones.
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And then in the Federalist Paper No. 58, he said, the House of Representatives has control over the, quote, power of the purse, which gives the people's representatives authority over taxation and spending. But they also warned, along with Alexander Hamilton,
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of the dangers of unchecked government power through burdensome taxation and excess spending, which would ultimately erode individual freedoms. So they recognized that there were going to be limits, but their expectation was that the House and the individuals that were electing people to the House that were members of this republic would come in and say, we're going to keep that from happening.
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And clearly something went wrong along the way that we got to this point where, again, spending is 24% of GDP. And I think
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that the biggest thing they got wrong was that they didn't create these constitutional limits on federal spending or taxation through either a balanced budget structure, spending as a percentage of GDP, no federal debt or term limits or all of these other mechanisms that could have been introduced at the beginning that could have created some structural limits.
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Instead, they assumed that there was this natural limit that would emerge as a function of the democratic process because of how they formed the government. But unfortunately, I think they failed to realize that the electorate would eventually not want the freedoms of the people of the time.
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Back then, in 1776, this was a pioneering country where everyone wanted to come here to have freedom to do anything they wanted, everywhere they wanted, to build a business, to homestead, to be rugged individuals.
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It was. And over the last 250 years, we've gotten used to an increment in lifestyle every year and discovered that we have a mechanism to force the increment in lifestyle through the actions of government. And so the electorate has stood up and said, I want more each year and I want the government to provide it for me if the free markets are not doing it.
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And that's really where we kind of got to this point where I think we elected people to the House who ultimately had this incentive that said, if I give you this, I need to get this. And we ended up swelling this. So I don't know if it cracks with Doge. I really don't know if people step up and recognize the limits of government and what the limits should be of the federal government.
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on an electorate basis. It's an amazing moment to see that Elon went on Twitter and said, hey, guys, this is nuts. And everyone said, this is nuts. We're not going to elect you if you do this.
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If that momentum and that transparency can keep up, I hope that people start to connect the dots that this isn't a free lunch, that the federal government spending is not limitless and it's not unaccountable.
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Aaron, how do you feel about this Doge effort as someone who is a public Harris supporter? So you've come out, I think you've been public about this, but I want to understand why people... wouldn't be supportive of this effort, right? Like, like, what is like, what is the motivation for people saying this isn't a good thing?
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We shouldn't be doing this, because there's a lot of folks that have gone on these shows. It's like they blast Elon, they blast Vivek. But like, aren't these principles, like, shouldn't they just be universal that we should not be wasting money and stuff? Sure, of course.
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Yes.
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I mean... There you go.
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As I was saying.
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Okay, Freeberg, you're the genius here. Tell us what's going on. I think there are three likely explanations. The first is that the government's got some activities that can't be disclosed. So we don't know and they can't talk about it. No one can either, you know, say yes or say no to it. So, you know, that's kind of one that's pretty possible. The second is...
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These are just individuals with a bunch of drones messing around, having fun, trying to wreak havoc. Could be fun. Bunch of kids. I think we've all been there. The third is what I would call kind of a bit of a more nefarious, like, this is my conspiracy theory. I think it could be considered a psyop. Okay, so...
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Right now, the US has a significant regulatory burden on drone utilization in a commercial setting. And it's very hard to use drones. You have to have line of sight to the operator. These things aren't supposed to go on their own. There's all these rules and restrictions and so on and so forth. Meanwhile, you've got countries like China rocketing ahead.
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So I don't know if you guys know the company Meituan in China, you know, the food delivery company? Have you guys, did you know that they do a large amount of drone delivery of their food now? I was not aware of that. We're testing that here in the US. The drone delivery business in China is already $30 billion a year.
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And they're also launching a pretty significant fleet of what we would call kind of the eVTOLs or flying cars. The expectation is that by 2030, there'll be 100,000 flying cars moving people around in China. And these are huge efficiency gains.
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In fact, with Meituan, you can now order food while you're on the Great Wall at one of the ramparts, and the drone will bring the food to you while you're walking the Great Wall as a tourist.
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And in the US, the reason that these things haven't taken off and the reason we don't have a large kind of drone industry, which is clearly emerging and is gonna be a huge economic driver for China and others around the world is simply the regulatory restrictions. And so if you were gonna try and mess with the US's ability to move forward with the drone economy,
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you would probably try and wreak some havoc, stoke some fear, and get people to say, hey, this doesn't seem cool. What's going on? I don't like that there's all these drones in the sky. I'm freaking out. And try and get the regulators to come in and say, hey, we're banning drones. And set up everyone, including the people in the government, to say, we should take a beat.
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We should think a little bit before we deregulate. Who would do this?
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Uber Eats and Postmates? No, no, no.
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No, no, no. It could be the other government. That's my PSYOP point. This could be a PSYOP.
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Think about it. If you're going to pass a bill in Congress to make drones more freely roamable in the skies, you're going to reference back this crazy story in New Jersey. Everyone's freaking out about it. And you're going to say, hey, wait, what about all that stuff that happened in New Jersey? Maybe this doesn't make as much sense. People are kind of scared about it. We shouldn't rush.
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We shouldn't rush. We shouldn't rush. That would be my PSYOP theory. That's my kind of conspiracy theory tinfoil hat. I don't often do them, but that's what I would kind of think about.
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No, he's in D.C. this week.
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Do I want my news from J-Cal or Ken Kankoa? I don't know. I don't know. Who do you take?
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I don't see how nighttime you'd get a better read on radioactive material. It doesn't make any sense.
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But anyway, we're living in crazy times. Speaking of crazy. By the way, that was my first conspiracy theory in 208 episodes of the All In Pod.
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Okay, J. Cal, read us some more news. Go to Google News and read us some more news so we can do another topic.
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Read a article for us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Okay, so today the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 23,000 to 44,000.
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Aaron, what do you think of Sachs in this role?
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Hey, Nick, can you send J. Cal another Yahoo news article? Let's get going. Come on. Let's go. Yahoo news article. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Can't wait to see you in the show tomorrow. Let's go, Nick.
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Yeah. Give him his red meat. Give Chamath his red meat.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
As a software CEO of a public company, when the Biden administration was putting forward their proposals on how to regulate AI and have definitions on the size of a model and what the models could or shouldn't do and the regulatory authority they would have over the software that's written. What was your reaction? And you were supporting Harris at the time, I believe, or Biden at the time, right?
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But like, how did you react to that when you saw those proposals?
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Yeah, there was the EO, but then they were also drafting. They published a lot of detailed drafting. And then obviously California had its bill, which you probably saw as well, which specified like the number of parameters in a model, the size of a model, and had all these kind of constraints.
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Well, I try and encourage the teams to... build stuff that better meets our needs. And then it can actually be a better solution and it can be built in house. And I think we did a, I think I mentioned this the last episode, but we did a hackathon where we brought in people,
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to learn how to use cursor and chat GPT to build software that had never done it before to try and create this as a capability for people broadly in the organization. And there were great tools that came out of it. So I think that that's really the future as, and this is kind of like, you know, I'd say early generation, but as we get to further later generation capabilities,
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You could see the instruction to a chat GPT or like interface, hey, I'd love to do the following things with a piece of software shows you a couple options, you pick one shows you a couple UX, you pick one, it does user testing automatically for you, it does QA for you.
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And ultimately, it puts it into production for you, which is the biggest challenging step right now, you still need engineers that can load stuff into production and do QA. But if all of that gets automated as well, Now, any user in a company can actually stand up software to do something for them.
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It is today, and in five years, just like we're all gonna, and we're all using chat-like interfaces more frequently, You go to your chat-like interface and eventually you realize you can ask it to build some tool for you that does something. And it renders the tool and it makes it possible and it stands it up in production and suddenly you're using it at your company.
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And then you ask it to do another tool and it does it exactly to spec and you define the UX you want, you define what you want it to do, and it works. And it interoperates But you, and really clearly and really cleanly with the other tool, and there's a big aspect of this where you can start to build all of the software infrastructure that you as an organization want. In your ideal way.
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Let's go through that example, and let's say that you're in a bank, and you tell the AI, figure out all the security and permissions and authority rules that are necessary for me to operate as a bank, and it can actually render it.
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It sounds far-fetched today, but there's no reason that in seven years that is not the standard du jour, that I don't have the ability to say, go look at all the software that's out there in the world today. that helped me build a tool that meets compliance standards, that meets all of my security standards.
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And you can actually instruct the AI to operate like a large number of software engineers need to operate today.
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In stage one, we're in stage zero.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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What was your last J trade? Yeah, you got Kramer'd.
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They were late. The compounding effects are playing out, and it's only going to continue to compound. And I will say the data repository at Google, the engine that they have, the infrastructure, the team, everything down to components is advantaged. And so everyone's been kind of counting them out, but it's clear they're in it to win it.
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70% is consumer.
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I think you'll end up having a Gemini that has ads eventually. And you could pay and have no ads, or you could not pay and have ads.
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I jump back and forth personally. My experience is I don't feel like I've got embedded data on OpenAI or on Gemini that makes me stick with one. Just like with Google, I'm gonna go to the best interface, the best engine. So I do think that there's fungibility here and people will move over as they realize better results, better performance.
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But I will say that what we're seeing now with the data advantage at Google, so the internet, all these LLMs are language models trained on text from the internet, right? There's call it 50 billion words on the internet. And I think if you estimate the data repository in these training sets, it's like probably a couple terabytes, one to five terabytes or something like that.
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But if you look at the video data that's out there, there's hundreds of billions of hours or a hundred billion plus hours of video data. A large amount of that is sitting on YouTube. And by some estimates, there's a thousand exabytes of video data on the internet. So about a billion times more video data than there is word or text data.
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And I think we just saw that play out with the VEO model that launched yesterday. But here's some examples of VEO. Google has all of this YouTube data. Whether or not they're using it to train, I don't know the answer.
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Whatever they're using. And it's basically rendering physics, or it looks like it's rendering physics. Now, Genesis came out yesterday. and it's open source. So you can actually go play with this Genesis model, which similarly renders the actual 3D objects into a 3D environment.
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So rather than rendering a two-dimensional set of pixels to look at a video visual, with Genesis, as you can see here, you can type in a prompt and it renders this extraordinary video that also has underlying it the three-dimensional objects that make up the video.
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And also with Google and this, you can start to implement three-dimensional models based on some prompt that says something like, I want to have the camera angle at this point in the room. I want to have the room look like this. I want to have this color, this wallpaper.
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And suddenly everything starts to prompt in a way that you can actually render in real time a video game, a movie, a visual experience. And it goes to this point that we're unleashing the capacity for human imagination and creativity with these systems because it's no longer just a lookalike two-dimensional image.
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It's now an actual three-dimensional object that then renders the visuals to make this happen. So we're starting to see, I think, the next era of these models that goes beyond just text prediction. What do you think, Aaron?
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That's not the point. The point is they've had this compounding infrastructure advantage, data advantage, personnel advantage, and now they were just a little late to the game. But when you...
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You know, like they were distracted. Okay. A big part of Google's orientation historically has been don't mess up the machine. A classic kind of big company dilemma where if I do something that's either disruptive to my core business or if I do something wrong where I will invite regulatory and consumer scrutiny, I'm going to get wrecked. And so they avoided launching stuff early.
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And what they've done is they've changed the posture in the last two years. And now the posture is launch early, launch aggressively, push hard. We have to win this battle or we're going to get eaten alive. And it's amazing to see the founders and Sundar lead this organization. I think there were a lot of question marks a year ago, but I think that the questions have been answered.
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Even when they didn't treat you well? We were in a codependent relationship and we were working on it. You have no one to fight with anymore. Who are you going to fight with, J. Cal? That's the emptiness you feel inside. Because you're a fighter. You're a street brawler. And you have no one to brawl with anymore. So you feel... Well, you're the first guy to jump under the table in a bar fight.
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Tamak, did you go down to the breakthrough thing this weekend?
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You could look at this as being a culture of entitlement that let folks feel that our employees that they have permission to stage sit ins and behaviors like this because Google is so infinitely tolerant and giving employees the space and the room to do whatever they want to do and all of their wishes and demands can be met and will be met if they demand it strongly enough.
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That's one way to look at this, and that culture manifested this behavior.
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Another way to look at it is that these people feel so deeply, strongly, and passionately about the issue at hand that they were willing to risk their jobs and arrest, and they cared so deeply about an issue that they think no one's paying enough attention to that they're willing to put themselves and sacrifice themselves for it.
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So I want to be empathetic to that point of view as well, but I do think that there's a belief that there may have been this kind of entitlement culture where anytime Google employees ask for stuff, they get it. Someone told me the other day how at TGIFs at Google now where they do these all hands and people get to ask questions, this person is kind of executive level.
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They're so sick and tired of how every question is all about employees asking for more things that they want. So it's like, when are we going to get this bonus? When are we going to get this gym? When are we going to get this? That's so much of the orientation of being an employee at Google. It's all about what Google can do for me and how I can get more. And that becomes what you ask for.
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It's like you give a kid something, you give them candy, they always ask for candy. And I think that there is certainly an element of that culture kind of being... frothed up over the years at Google. But I do think that this is an issue that people care very passionately about right now, and you're seeing it all over the place.
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Dad, I said get me the spicy fries, not the regular Cajun fries. The girl that won it, Freebird, did something with Yamanaka Factors.
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I think there's a lot of issues. One is just the challenge of deep tech More specifically, in this case, hardware investing, you have to invest a lot of capital before you even have your first product. And then you don't really know how well it works until you've already burned through a lot of capital.
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I mean, this is one of the stunning stories of a startup that has raised a quarter billion dollars. And then they come out with their first product. And it turns out it needs a lot of work because it doesn't do anything that consumers really are compelled by, as evidenced by the review.
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So I think it highlights that that challenge and why that market finds, particularly in this environment, it to be so hard to get capitalized. Now, obviously, there are some entrepreneurs like Elon, who can take that capital and drive to the outcome, spending hundreds of millions of dollars before you get your first rocket into space. And you have a lot of failings along the way.
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But the general tone here is a deep tech investment is very likely to fail because you spend so much money before you even know. And at that point you have less money and you can't really make the necessary iteration to get there. So it's a tough data point for other deep tech companies that need to raise a lot of capital. Then I think it brings up the point about X Apple people.
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that there's a degree of confidence because people come from Apple, and a degree of hubris in the employees that come from Apple, that says, I have worked at the best hardware company in the world, therefore, this person is likely to succeed.
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It turns out that when you don't have all that built in infrastructure for testing, and optimization, all of that built in distribution, all of the feedback systems that Apple has engineered into their business model for so long, maybe you missed some of the data around what makes a product great or not before you launch.
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And they get to... Well, I think then there's also this question about like, where is the value in the product? Because they thought, hey, if we have AI on a pin, it'll work. without the consumer feedback about whether or not people are willing to sit around and wait for 12 seconds to get an answer to a question.
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And then it brings up this other really important point, which is half the people in Silicon Valley are running breathlessly into the conversation saying, do not disparage a startup that's working really hard at getting their first product right. It'll destroy the motivation of other startups that need to kind of iterate to get there. And we can't just take the first V1 and say that that's it.
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Chamath, your thoughts?
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The other half of Silicon Valley are running in and saying, this thing's a piece of shit. What are you talking about? It doesn't work. So it is a really interesting kind of debate. Yeah, Rorschach test on what's going on.
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An irreverent elitist will eat octopus. Here we are.
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Yeah, the primary function is like a chat AI assistant that sits on you and has a camera. And so you can say things.
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But sorry, let me just give the quick overview. And basically you ask it questions and it can go get the answers. The problem is that it has to go make a request to the internet, run an AI model and come back. So it takes like 12 seconds to get results. Most of the time, according to the reviewer, the results are actually wrong. Because it's hallucinating models.
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The voice-to-text translation is wrong. There's a lot of things that are wrong about it. So it takes a long time. It's clunky. And then the battery burns out every two hours. And it gets super hot because of the way they get it to magnetically stick to your clothes. So it gets very hot. So there's all sorts of issues.
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That was the other thing he said is like when you're in a crowd and there's a voice around, you can use your hand and hand gestures to control it and do things with the projectors thing that it does.
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This became law in the 2017 Jobs Act, as you highlighted. And basically, it means that companies not just like tech companies, but life sciences companies, defense companies, are pushing Congress to change this law, because you can't actually deduct the expenses that you use to run your business You have to only deduct them over five years, 20% a year.
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So like you pointed out, if you're making a million dollars, but you're spending a million dollars, you made no profit, but you got to pay taxes as if you made 800 grand in profit. And a lot of these small companies don't have that cash. So venture capital backed companies and public companies that are profitable, they can afford to do this because they have large balance sheets.
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So it doesn't affect them as much as it does the literally hundreds of thousands of small businesses that work in the life sciences sector, the defense sector, the tech sector, that are struggling this year to make the tax payments that are required under this law that went into effect last year.
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And Congress promised that they were going to repeal this law leading up to April 15th, which happened obviously a few days ago, and make it retroactive to 2023, but they didn't.
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So the original intent was that this was one of the ways you guys know, whenever you pass a bill, it gets run through the OMB and the CBO that figures out what's the budgetary cost of the bill.
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And one of the ways that they made this work, this bill, the 2017 Trump Tax and Jobs Act, you guys may remember in that bill, they also made it impossible to deduct entertainment and dining expenses when you take people out to dinner anymore. That sucks. And they did all those things to make up some of the money they were using for basic general tax breaks for companies.
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So they use this as a way to say like, look, in a couple of years, we're going to kick in this R&D expenditure thing, and it'll trigger a lot more revenue for the federal government. It'll create a lot more taxes and a lot more revenue. So that was the idea. And everyone was like, yeah, okay, sure, we'll do that. Great. It makes the accounting work.
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And then in a couple of years, you know, nudge, nudge, wink, wink, we're going to come back and repeal it. Except Congress has stalled out. There's this ineptitude where anytime someone tries to pass a bill in Congress, someone else says, I want to get money. And so the Democrats showed up and said, we want this child tax credit thing to show up, which basically was passed during COVID.
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Not only is it deeply wrong to eat all the animals that you people eat and you will one day realize it or your children or your children's children will realize it. But octopus in particular have the IQ of four to eight year olds. They can actually sign, they can communicate, they can solve problems. You can watch YouTube videos on this. It's pretty incredible. They're amazing creatures.
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And they want to extend it going forward. And the child tax credit says that you can get a check for $1,800 a year in 2023, $1,900 in 2024, and $2,000 in 2025 for each child you have. And the Republicans in the Senate are saying, wait a second, for people to get this thing, we wanna make sure they're working. We wanna make sure it's not as retroactive.
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So now there's this big debate about how big the child tax credit should be. And that's keeping this R&D thing from going through. And meanwhile, I've gotten tons of emails from CEOs of tech companies that are breaking even. These are not tech companies that are making a ton of profit. They're not public. They're not venture backed. They're just people running their business.
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And now they're going to have this huge tax bill, even though they didn't make any money this year. And it's crippling businesses around the country. And what do they do? They're going to write a check. They're going to borrow money.
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They're going to go to the bank, borrow money, or they're going to incur penalties with the IRS because they don't have the cash to pay the tax bill because they don't have any profit. They didn't make any money.
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If they just ran the business break-even, which a lot of these companies do, is just make a little bit of money or break-even, and then they've got this huge tax bill and profits they didn't actually have, they've got to go figure out how to write a check.
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Yeah. There's all this writing in the, um, if you get audited by the IRS, they have the ability to basically capture everything. So like, let's say you're a mobile app developer and you make a million dollars a year, but you spend a million dollars a year on your developers.
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They're going to count that. They have the ability to count that as an R&D. So the accountants, the tax accountants tell you, book it all as R&D because otherwise you could get audited and actually get in trouble. Because anything that involves the development of technology now is considered R&D. Again, a company working in life sciences is a research company doing lab work.
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My understanding is most of this stuff is getting captured and that's why it's hurting everything from defense to life sciences, to lab equipment, to startups that make software, to everything. And Congress can't get out of its own way where this bill passed, by the way, bipartisan in the House.
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Then it went to the Senate, and now it's getting taken apart in the Senate, and now it's stalled out, and everyone's freaking out that it stalled out past April 15th. And it's actually going to hurt a lot of small businesses in this country. And here's the other problem. is it actually limits our ability to invest in innovation in this country, because now you're better off.
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There's no other country in the world that does this. Every other country in the world tries to incentivize investment in innovation. And here in the US, we're basically saying, no, we're going to tax you for investing in technology development and innovation.
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And the other thing that's actually not being talked about is even in this bill where they're repealing this, they're leaving in the fact that if you invest in R&D outside the US, you have to amortize it over 15 years. So let's say that you're a US developer and you hire people offshore. Yeah.
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You've got to basically amortize the offshore stuff over 15 years, which means you'll never make a profit. You're always going to have to pay taxes.
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It's also why in the movie, The Arrival, the future alien race is made out to be cephalopods because they're the most advanced creature that's likely to become a civilized form if humans didn't exist. I have a one word reaction to that. Yum.
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It means that- Well, it's also an illustration of just how hungry we are for tax revenue in this country. It's only gonna grow, and I'm not sitting here complaining about taxes. The Trump tax cut that he put in place in 2017 added $1.5 trillion to the federal deficit,
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So tax cuts in general are not great when you're spending a lot, but it does highlight just how much we are spending at the federal level and the demand for tax revenue. And that demand causes this counter cyclical problem, which is now we're gonna eat into innovation, which is supposed to drive, get us out of the problem, the spiral that results from this debt.
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So it really highlights like just the challenges that are going to emerge, particularly in a decade ahead, because we have all of the spending that's coming in front of us over the next decade, and how we're going to start to demand more and more tax and all these weird ways that can really hurt industry.
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That's right. But if the business is growing, you're always going to be in a hole.
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Right. So if your revenue is growing and your OpEx is growing, you're always going to be in a hole.
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I mean, that's what I would do. Remember businesses, and you guys know this, like when you look at a public company's financials, what you're seeing is their gap financials, generally accepted accounting principles. And that's the way that you present the financials of a business. That's different than the way you present financials to the IRS.
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You don't have a lot of discretion in your tax financials. Your tax financials are actually quite different than your gap financials. Yes. So when you file your taxes, there's a lot of rules on what you are allowed to deduct and aren't allowed to deduct that's quite different than how you present your corporate financials to investors.
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And that's really where people get screwed is you don't have that sort of discretion that you do in kind of sharing your financials with investors. So...
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I just hope Congress resolves this because it's, you know. Yes, super important.
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Are you off the Wagovi or the, what do you call it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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How do you get better at chess? Freebird, do you have a rating?
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Yeah, be vulnerable, dude.
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What is it? Ask me other questions. Just don't ask me about my chest rating. Are you ashamed of your rating? Don't ask me about my chest rating. Ask me anything else. What is the lowest rating?
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The chest.com app has very good lessons on it too. It's actually quite good.
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My puzzle rush scores are pretty good.
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No, no, you play, it's like how many you can get in a certain period of time. How many, and it gets, it gets sequentially harder as you complete the puzzles and you have like a limited period to do it. So yet you feel shame.
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I used to go to the Recycler newspaper. Do you guys remember that? Yeah. And I would buy used electronics equipment, computer equipment, and then I would sell it. So I would then post other ads. I basically did ad arbitrage as a way to think about it. So I would go and find people selling stuff that I thought was underpriced. But did you fix it?
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there was nothing to fix you would just it was underpriced and then i knew like the better market to go sell it and make more money so then i'd buy like all these like old like like a broken receiver this disc man and a receiver good speak speakers that i knew were good but they were like deeply discounted i drive around in my white van i'd pay people cash i'd load it up and then i go sell it to like other people by putting ads and no wonder you wound up at google
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And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, Wes. Queen of Kicks.
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Yeah, you're just collecting your coupon. But yeah, we had within 72 hours, I think we had more applications than we have seats, but we're still leaving applications open. And in the next week, we'll start to respond to people. So basically, if you're interested in going to the summit, Sign up now. Get your applications in this week. Apply early is the key.
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Yeah, because it's going to be done in order of when it's received. And they're going to start processing applications this week. We'd love to get everyone that wants to show up, show up. And if you went in the past, your registration window is wrapped up this week. So...
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So no plan yet, but there will be, yeah, we'll still do scholarships because I think they were super successful and helpful to people that otherwise couldn't afford the ticket. I know it's expensive this year, but the reason was we actually spent a lot more per person last year than people actually paying for their tickets.
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Yeah, we're trying to get the price so that we can make the same break even. And we're going to have scholarship tickets with the balance. So it should be awesome.
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Not talking about it yet. Not talking about it yet.
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Not yet. Not yet. We'll do a big announcement.
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Well, a friend of mine who you hung out with down there called me last night to give me the breakdown on all the individuals he saw and what was going on with them.
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I mean, yeah, there's obviously a line crossed in the view of security, but I think You could look at this two ways.
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I think it's become quite apparent that there's an evolution underway in model architecture. And I think you may remember, we talked about this briefly with Sam last week, but we're moving away from these very big, bulky models that are released every couple of months or quarters and cost a lot of money to rebuild every time they get re-released towards a system of models.
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So this multimodal system basically leverages several models at once that work together or that are linked together to respond to the inputs and to provide some generative output. And that those individual models themselves can be continuously tuned and or continuously updated. So rather than have, you know, hey, there's this big new release that just happened.
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This new model just got trained, cost $10 million to train it. It's been pushed. These models can be upgraded with tuning, with upgrade features, and then linked together with other new smaller models that are perhaps specialized for specific tasks like doing mathematics or rendering an image or rendering a movie.
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And so I think what we're going to see is soon more of an obfuscation of the individual models and more of this general service type approach where the updates are happening in a more continuous fashion. I think this is the first step of OpenAI taking that architectural approach with GPT-4.0. And what's behind the curtains, we don't know. We don't know how many models are there.
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We don't know how frequently they're being changed, whether they're being changed through actually upgrading the parameters or whether they're being fine tuned. And so this seems to be pretty obvious. If you look at this link, one of the criticisms that initially came out when they released GPT-4.0 was that there was some performance degradation.
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And Stanford actually runs this massive multitask language understanding assessment. And they publish it, I think, daily or pretty frequently on how all the models perform. And you can see the scorecard here that GPT-4.0 actually outperforms GPT-4.
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And so this goes counter to some of the narrative that in order to get some of the performance improvements and speed improvements they got in 4.0, that they actually made the model worse. And it seems actually the opposite is true, that the model's gotten slightly better. It still underperforms Cloud3.
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Opus, which you can see here ranks top of these charts, but there's lots of different charts, all the companies published on charts, they all claim that they're better than everyone else. But I like Stanford because it's independent.
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We missed you last weekend. We missed you last weekend.
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We missed you on Saturday night. Saturday night was really fun.
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We had a cabana set up on Saturday, played blackjack by the pool. I missed you guys too. I had a FOMO when I saw the videos. It was so fun.
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That's AI-generated.
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I also got to enjoy for my first time ever the experience of Baccarat, which I've decided is the most degen game on earth. It's literally the most, you just flip a coin. More than craps.
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Well, craps is really, there's a style. Craps, you make betting decisions. All you do in Baccarat is you say bank or player, and then you freak yourself out about how you flip the cards. And the smartest people I know on earth are all sitting around this table at two or three in the morning saying, turn this corner this way. No, no, no, no, no. Turn it this way. Turn it this way. There's two dots.
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I did promise you that when Ohalo decides to come out of stealth and explains what we've done and what we're doing, I would do it here on the all-in pod first before the- And all-in exclusive. All-in exclusive. So basically, by the time this pod airs, we're going to be announcing-
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what Ohalo has been developing for the past five years and has had an incredible breakthrough in, which is basically a new technology in agriculture. And we call it boosted breeding. I'm gonna take a couple of minutes just to talk through what we discovered or invented at Ohalo and why it's important and the kind of significant implications for it.
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But basically five years ago, we had this theory that we could change how plants reproduce. And in doing so, we would be able to allow plants to pass 100% of their genes to their offspring rather than just half their genes to their offspring.
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And if we could do that, then all the genes from the mother and all the genes from the father would combine in the offspring rather than just half the genes from the mother and half the genes from the father. And this would radically transform crop yield and improve the health and the size of the plants.
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I'm trying AI backgrounds. I'm going to try it out for a while with different crops.
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which could have a huge impact on agriculture because yield, the size of the plants ultimately drives productivity per acre, revenue for farmers, cost of food, calorie production, sustainability, et cetera. So this image just shows generally how reproduction works. You've got two parents.
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And they're debating the right way to flip a card over. That's true.
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you get a random selection of half of the DNA from the mother and a random selection of half the DNA from the father. So you never know which half you're gonna get from the mother or which half you're gonna get from the father. That's why when people have kids, every kid looks different. And then those two halves come together and they form the offspring.
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So every time a new child is born, every time a plant has offspring, you end up with different genetics. And this is the problem with plant breeding. Let's say that you have a bunch of genes in one plant that are disease resistant, a bunch of genes in the other plant that are drought resistant, and you wanna try and get them together.
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Today, the way we do that in agriculture is we spend decades trying to do plant breeding, where we try and run all these different crosses, find the ones that have the good genes, find the other ones that have the good genes and try and keep combining them. And it can take forever and it may never happen that you can get all the good genes together in one plant to make it both disease resistant
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and drought resistant. So what we did is we came up with this theory that we could actually change the genetics of the parent plants. We would apply some proteins to the plants and those proteins would switch off the reproductive circuits that caused the plants to split its genes. And as a result, the parent plants give 100% of their DNA to their offspring.
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So the offspring have double the DNA of either parent. You get all the genes from the mother, all the genes from the father. And finally, after years of toiling away and trying to get this thing to work, and all these experiments and all these approaches, we finally got it to work. And we started collecting data on it. And the data is ridiculous.
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Like the yield on some of these plants goes up by 50 to 100% or more. Just to give you a sense, like in the corn seed industry, Breeders that are breeding corn are spending $3 billion a year on breeding, and they're getting maybe 1.5% yield gain per year. With our system, we are seeing 50% to 100% jump in the size of these plants. It's pretty incredible. Here's an example.
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This is a little weed that you do experiments with in agriculture. called Arabidopsis. So it's really easy to work with. And you can see that what we have on the top are those two parents, A and B. And then we applied our boosted technology to them and combined them.
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And we ended up with that offspring called boosted A and B. So you can see that that plant on the right, it's much bigger, it's got bigger leaves, it's healthier looking, et cetera.
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Yeah, it's called polyploidy. So we actually see this happen from time to time in nature. For example, humans have two sets of chromosomes, right? So does corn, so do many other species. Somewhere along the evolutionary history, wheat... doubled and then doubled again. And you end up actually in wheat having six sets of chromosomes. Wheat is what's called a hexaploid. Potatoes are a tetraploid.
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They have four sets of chromosomes. And strawberries are an octaploid. They have eight. And some plants have as many as 24 sets of chromosomes. So certain plant species have this really weird thing that might happen from time to time in evolution where they double their DNA naturally. And so what we've effectively done is just kind of
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apply to protein to make it happen and bring the correct two plants together when we make it happen.
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It wouldn't work in animals. It works in plants. Okay. And one way you can think about plant genetics is all the genes are sort of like tools in a toolbox. The more tools you give the plant, the more it has available to it to survive in any given second, to deal with drought or hot weather or cold weather, etc.,
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And so every given second, the more tools or the more genes the plant has that are beneficial, the more likely it is to keep growing and keep growing. And that plays out over the lifetime of the plant with bigger leaves and bigger, you know, grows taller. But more importantly, if you look at the bottom, the seeds get bigger. And in most crops, what we're harvesting is the seed.
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That's true in, you know, corn and many other crops. And so seeing over a 40% increase in seed in this little weed was a really big deal. But then we did it in potato. And potato is a crazy result. Potato is the third largest source of calories on earth. And so we took two potatoes that you see here in the middle, AB and CD.
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We applied our boosted technology to it, to each of them and put them together. And you end up with this potato ABCD, that's the boosted potato. And as you can see, these were all planted on the same date and the boosted potatoes much bigger than all the other potatoes here, including a market variety that we show on the far right. That's what's typically grown in the field.
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We're two across. So great. And then you get to decide whether the bank turns over their cards and when they turn them over.
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Now here's what's most important. When you look under the ground and you harvest the potatoes, You can see that that AB potato only had 33 grams, CD had nine grams. So each parent had 33 and nine grams potato, but the boosted offspring had 682 grams of potato. The yield gain was insane. And so you could see this being obviously hugely beneficial for humanity.
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Potatoes being the third largest source of calories, Indian potato farmers are growing one acre of potato. In India, they eat potato two meals a day. In Africa, potato is a food staple. So around the world, we've had a really tough time breeding potatoes and improving the yield. With our system, we've seen incredible yield gains in potato almost overnight.
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Those are normal-sized potatoes that you see there. Those are like, you know, table potatoes. Basically, that looks like a russet potato right there. That's like a normal-sized russet. I can tell you, you got something in it.
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Yeah, so the genetics on AB... You can see they're like little purple, tiny little purple potatoes. The genetics on CD are like these little white, you know, tiny little ball potatoes.
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But when you put those two together with boosted and you combine all the DNA from AB and all the DNA from CD, you get this crazy high yielding potato ABCD, which, by the way, is higher yielding than the market variety that's usually grown in the field on the far right.
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We are. And so we're working on doing this with Russet. We're working on doing this with every major potato line. Sorry, the improvement you'll see is actually in yield. So it's not the size of the potato. It's the number of potatoes that are being made.
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Yeah, you're convincing yourself that you have all this control and ways to change the outcome. You're literally flipping a card. It's high card. It's basically a high card. That's all it is.
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Oh, no, they're awesome. Yeah, they're potatoes. And we do a lot of analysis.
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No. I mean, again, one of the other advantages of the system that we've developed Let me go back here, and I just wanna take two seconds on this. One of the other things this unlocks is creating actual seed that you can put in the ground in crops that you can't do that in today. So potatoes, the third largest source of calories.
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But the way we grow potatoes, you guys remember the movie, The Martian, you chop up potatoes and you put them back in the ground. Because the seed that comes out of a potato, which grows on the top in the flower, Every one of those seed is genetically different because of what I just showed on this chart, right? You get half the DNA from the mother, half the DNA from the other.
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So every seed has different genetics. So there's no potato seed industry today. And potato is like $100 billion market. With our system, not only can we make potatoes higher yielding and make them disease resistant, What we also make is perfect seed.
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So farmers can now plant seed in the ground, which saves them about 20% of revenue, takes out all the disease risk, and makes things much more affordable and easier to manage for farmers. So it creates entirely new seed industries. So we're going to be applying this boosted technology that we've discovered across nearly every major crop worldwide.
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It'll both increase yield, but it will also have a massive impact on The ability to actually deliver seed and help farmers and make food prices lower. Is it more expensive? No, it's actually cheaper. So higher yield, lower cost. Do you need more water? Less water, less land, less energy. Do you need more fertilizer?
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Fertilizer usually scales with biomass, but these sorts of systems should be more efficient. So fertilizer use per pound produced should go down significantly. as we get to commercial trials with all this stuff. And we're doing this across many crops. So there's a lot of work to do in terms of like, how do you scale the production in the fields?
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we added ai to enterprise chat we cleaned up your slack so yeah when you invest we've invested a ton of money this was stealth for five years we put a ton of money into this business so when you invest like um i mean north of 50 north north of 50 yeah 50 million five years and you don't have a product in market yet wow that's some we actually have some product yeah so i haven't talked about the way we've been making money in some of the business we've been doing okay
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You can control for that when you breed. So the selection of what plants you put together in the boosted system allows you to decide. Do you want small, medium, large? That's all part of the design of which plants do you want to combine.
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No, the goal is to make more russet potato per acre so that we use less water, we use less land, farmers can make more money, people pay less for food. That's the goal. And so it's all about yield. It's not about changing the characteristics.
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And I'm watching the smartest guys we know staring at the window at the little machine that tells you whether bank or player won. And they're studying it, rubbing their chin, doing an analysis. It's been four reds. It's got to go black. Hellview's like, I'm calling it now. Bank, bank, player, player, player. And all the guys are like, let's do it.
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There are some crops where you want to change the characteristics, like you might want to make bigger corn kernels and bigger cobs on the corn, which is another thing that we've done. And that's actually been published in our patent. And the reason, by the way, I'm talking about all this is some of our patents started to get published last week.
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And so when that came out, the word started to get out. And that's why we decided to get public with what we've done, because it's now coming out in the open.
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Awesome question.
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It's a great question. I'm so glad you asked it because that's one of the key drivers for the business is that we can now make crops adapted to all sorts of new environments that you otherwise can't grow food. Today, there's close to somewhere between 800 million and a billion people that are malnourished. That means they are living on less than 1200 calories a day for more than a year.
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But on average, we're producing 3,500 calories per person worldwide in our ag systems. The problem is we just can't grow crops where we need them.
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And so by being able to do this sort of system where we can take crops that are very drought resistant or can grow in sandy soil or very hot weather and adapt cooler climate crops to those regions through the system, we can actually move significantly where things are grown and improve food access in regions of-
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And so there are known markers associated with known phenotypes. A phenotype is a physical trait of a plant. And so we know lots of markers for every crop that we grow. Markers for disease resistance, drought resistance, markers for big plants, short plants, etc. And so what we do is we look at the genetics of different plants that we might want to combine into the boosted system.
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And we say these ones have these markers, these ones have these markers, let's put them together. And then that that'll drive the results. One of the other interesting things we're seeing, which I didn't get too much into in the slides. It's not just about combining traits. But it turns out, when you add more genes together, Biology figures out a way to create gene networks.
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And then everyone's like, heads, heads, tails, tails.
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These are all these genes that interact with each other in ways that are not super well understood, but it makes the organism healthier and bigger and live longer. This is why mutts are healthier and live longer than purebred dogs, because they have more genetic diversity.
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So there's a lot of work now in what's called quantitative genomics, where you actually look at the statistics across all the genes. You use a model, and the model predicts which two crosses you want to make out of hundreds of thousands or millions of potential crosses that the AI predicts. Here's the two best ones to cross because you'll get this growth or this healthiness factor that'll emerge.
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We're not going to farm. Farmers are our customers. And so there are different ways to partner with people in the industry who already have seed businesses or already have genetics and help them improve the quality of their business. And then there's other industries like in potato where we're building our own business of making potato seed, for example.
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So every crop and every region is actually quite different. So it becomes a pretty complicated business to scale. We're in the earlier days. We're already revenue generating. I would like a sweeter blueberry.
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Yeah. Well, somehow we made it about us. Yeah, no, no, look, I think that's, it is all about you guys. Tell us about the blueberries, sorry. Well, no, every year, Driscoll's puts out a special labeled package called Sweetest Batch. And they just had the sweetest batch of strawberry and blueberries. I don't know if they're still in the stores, but they only last for like a week or two.
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And that's the best genetics only grown on a small number of acres. Really incredible.
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See if they have it. So I got it a few weeks ago. It's quite delicious. Anyway, let's just say we know the berry market very well. My co-founder, CTO, Judd Ward, whose brilliant idea Boosted Breeding was many years ago, who I met because they had a New Yorker article on Judd. I cold called him and said, hey, will you come in and give us a tech talk?
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We started talking and Judd came up with this idea for Boosted Breeding. And so we started the business. with Judd and Judd ran molecular breeding at Driscoll. So we have a lot of Driscoll's people that work at Ohalo. We know the market really well.
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So we've spent, we've spent 50 million bucks on, you know, plus on this business today. So we have filed for IP protections that people can't just rip us off. But I would say, I think that the real advantage for the business is arises from what we call trade secrets, which is not just about taking patents and going out and suing people. That's not a great business.
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The business is how do you build a moat and then how do you extend that moat? The great thing about plant breeding and genetics is that once you make an amazing variety, the next year the variety gets better and the next year the variety gets better. And so it's hard for anyone to catch up.
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That's why seed companies generally get monopolies in the markets because farmers will keep buying that seed every year, provided it delivers the best genetics. And so our business model is really predicated on how do we build advantages and moats and then keep extending them rather than try to leverage IP. So I'm a big fan of like building business model advantages.
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No, I think... So first of all, farmland in America is mostly family-owned. It's about 60% rented, actually. So a lot of families own it, and then they rent it out because they stopped farming it. But the great thing that we've seen in agriculture historically is that the more... Calories we produce, the more food we produce, the more there seems to be a market.
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It's like any other economic system. What about wheat and rice? Yeah. So those are calorie sources one and two. And there's certainly opportunity for us to apply our boosted systems there. The big breakthrough with potato is we can make potato seed using our boosted system in addition to making better potatoes. McDonald's is the largest buyer of potatoes, yeah?
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So in the US, 60% of the potatoes go to French fries and potato chips. McDonald's buys most of the fries. PepsiCo under Frito-Lay buys most of the potato chip potatoes. 40% are table potatoes. In India... 95% of the potatoes are table potatoes. They're eaten at home. And the Indian potato market's three to four times as big as the U.S. potato market. In Brazil, it's 90% table potato.
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So all around the world, potatoes are different. The U.S. is, you know, unusually large consumers of French fries and potato chips.
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in the back from the besties actually doing work.
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Well, I appreciate you guys letting me talk about it today. I'm excited to share it.
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I love it. It's been, yeah, building stuff is hard. There's always risk. It's a lot of work and a lot of setbacks, but man, when you get stuff working, it's great.
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It's magic. So there is a path.
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Yeah, I mean, more importantly, it should limit the approval or action of certain programs that you might otherwise want to do in a normal environment, but in an inflationary environment, you don't have the flexibility to do them. Student loan forgiveness is a really good example. Is now the time?
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To do student loan forgiveness, or do we wait for inflation to temper a bit? Is now the time? So there's just a lot of these examples that actually the opposite should be true. Yeah, but none of...
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Let me just make one comment, J. Cal, before we move on about the Druckenmiller investment statement. Of course. And I just wanted to say, I think what it highlights about Druckenmiller and call it a rift in investing philosophy or skill is the difference between precision and accuracy.
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What I mean by that is precision really references that you do a lot of detailed analysis to try and make sure you understand every specific thing that is going right or could go wrong.
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But the problem... And so that means you, for example, might do a ton of diligence on a company and make sure you understand every dollar, every point of margin, all the specifics of the maturation of that business and where they are in their cycle. But... You could be very precise, but be very inaccurate.
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For example, if you miss an entire trend, someone could invest in Macy's back when Amazon was taking off and have done a lot of precise analysis on Macy's margin structure and performance and said, this is a great business. But they missed the bigger trend, which is that e-commerce was going to sweep away Macy's. And consumers were simply, that's not possible in the analysis that they were doing.
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Well, yeah. And so like... Do you want to show that? No, no, no, no. Do not poke the tiger. Let's not get into it with other podcasters. The worst spread trade in history. Yeah, let me just finish the statement. But the other one is being accurate. And accurate means you get the right bet, the right sentiment, the right friend.
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The problem with being accurate, you could have said in the year 2000, hey, the internet's going to take off. And you could have put a bunch of money in, but the problem was you were right. You just had to have the necessary patience. And so accuracy generally yields better returns, but it requires more patience because you can't necessarily time how long it will take for you to be right.
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So a guy like Druckenmiller is making an accurate bet. He bets correctly on the trend, on where things are headed. He doesn't necessarily need to be precise, but he has the capital and his capital structure that allows him to be patient to make sure that he eventually gets the return.
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What was the movie she was in? Bound. Bound. That's what it was. Yeah.
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The great thing about network effect businesses is there's a trend line that sustains because it builds if it's an appropriate network effect. So you can be accurate about buying into the right network effect business. You don't need to use all of this diligence to be perfectly sound and
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around the maturation of the revenue and the margin structure and all that stuff as long as the trend line is right and you're willing to be patient to hold your investment. I think Druckenmiller's point is incredible. He took a look, he very quickly made a macro assessment. From a macro perspective, what Millais is doing
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That is a tour de force.
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is significantly different than what we're seeing in any other emerging market, let alone mature market with respect to fiscal austerity and appropriateness in this sort of inflationary, global inflationary environment. And he said, you know what? I don't see any other leader doing this. This is a no brainer bet. Let me make the bet.
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And as long as he's willing to hold this thing for long enough, eventually the markets will get there and call it a spread trade against anything, he'll be proven right.
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Oh, my God.
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This is where I go. I mean, like watching Sax's demo earlier, how much progress and how seamless that product works with the features it has enabled by the underlying models. You just get to thinking how all of these vertical software applications become completely personalized and quickly rebuilt around AI. Totally. It's so obvious.
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And you got it done in five seconds. It's incredible. Totally. And then imagine building that same sort of capability into a very specific vertical application that's specific to some business function. And you can probably spend a couple minutes or an hour building that function. And then it saves you hours a day in perpetuity. Yeah.
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And I think that's why these tools companies or the tools products that Google... Microsoft, Amazon, and a few others are building are actually incredible businesses because so many enterprises and so many vertical application builders are going to be able to leverage them to rewrite their entire business functions.
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What happened, I've been talking with Sam for a while. A year. About coming on the show. And every time I see him, we're like, hey, you should come on the show. He's like, I want to come on the show. Okay, let's find a date. We never got a date that worked. I saw him in March and he said, hey, I want to come on the show. I said, okay, well, come on. Let me know when it works.
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And a couple of weeks later, he's like, what about this date in May? And I'm like, yeah, that's fine. We can make that work. He's like, well, I've got a big announcement we're going to be doing. And I was like, perfect. Come on the show. That sounds great.
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I bought some. No, your original stock. Did you clear it at some point? Oh, no, I sold all my stock back when I started Climate because I was a startup entrepreneur and needed to live. So, which, you know, I recently did. I did the math on it. It was pretty, it'd be worth a lot. It would be worth billions or tens of billions? No, no.
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No, no. Okay. You know, I was not a senior exec or anything. I think what you said is probably true. So that's accretive.
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I think the other thing that's probably true is a big measure at Google on the search page in terms of search engine performance was the bounce back rate, meaning someone does a search, they go off to another site, and then they come back because they didn't get the answer they wanted.
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And then the one box launched, which shows a short answer on the top, which basically keeps people from having a bad search experience because they get the result right away. So a key metric is they're going to start to discover which vertical searches, meaning like, hey, cooking recipes, that kind of stuff. There's lots and lots of these different types of searches.
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And then the night before, he asked me, he told me, he texted me, he's like, hey, we're actually not going to have this announcement happen tomorrow. It's going to be delayed. He didn't tell me how long. And I'm like, well, is it GPT-5? He's like, no, it's not GPT-5. And I was like, okay, well, you know, come on the show anyway.
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that will trigger a snippet or a one box that's powered by Gemini that will provide the user a better experience than them jumping off to a third party page to get that same content. And then they'll be able to monetize that content that they otherwise were not participating in the monetization of.
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So I think the real victim in all this is that long tail of content on the internet that probably gets cannibalized by the snippet one box experience within the search function. And then I do think that the revenue per search query in some of those categories actually has the potential to go up, not down.
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You keep people on the page so you get more search volume. there, you get more searches because of the examples you gave. And then when people do stay, you now have the ability to better monetize that particular search query, because you otherwise would have lost it to the third party content page.
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So for example, selling the steak knives is another is you know, it's kind of a good example, or booking the travel directly and so on. So by keeping more of the experience integrated, they can monetize the search per query higher. and they're gonna have more queries, and then they're gonna have the quality of the queries go up. So I think it's all in.
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There's a case to be made, and I haven't done a spreadsheet analysis on this, but I guarantee you, going back to our earlier point about precision versus accuracy, my guess is there's a lot of hedge fund type folks doing a lot of this precision type analysis, trying to break apart search queries by vertical,
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and try to figure out what the net effect will be of having better AI-driven one-box and snippets. And my guess is that's why there's a lot of buying activity happening in the stock right now. And I think they're probably all missing, to Moff's point, a lot of these call options, like isomorphic labs. I can tell you Meta and Amazon- Waymo.
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Meta and Amazon do not have an isomorphics lab in Waymo sitting inside their business that suddenly pops to a couple hundred billion of market cap. And Google does have a few of those.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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There may be. Look, I mean, there's Calico. No one talks about Calico. I don't know what's going on over there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Because he didn't tell me when he's doing the announcement or when it's being pushed to. So it didn't seem like that big a deal. And I thought we were just going to be able to have a good chat anyway. So it's really unfortunate, I think, the fact that the announcement happened two days after and he had to stay quiet about it during our interview. But that's the story.
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I think in the future, if someone says they've got a big announcement to do, we should probably push them if they have to delay or something like that. Don't beat yourself up. But I don't think we're going to be doing a lot of these interviews anyway. I think people clearly don't love them and it's better for us to just kind of hang out and talk. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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People don't remember they had their own video game. I was at a conference a couple of years ago that Jeff Bezos spoke at. I think he's given this talk in a couple other places. You could probably find it on the internet. But he talks about Amazon's legacy of failure and how they had the fire phone and the fire this and the fire that. And he's like, our job is to fail.
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We have to make these blunders. But what makes us successful is that we learn from the failures and we make the right next decision.
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One and done. But this is how you stay competitive. If you're a big founder-led tech company, the only way you're going to have a shot at staying relevant is to take big shots that you're going to fail at. I remember this one. The iPod HiFi. You have to do things that you're going to fail at.
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It was supposed to happen same day, so it's unfortunate this all worked out this way.
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Today is the day. Today is the day. Okay, good.
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And we'll make sure that consumers have choice and they have the ability to go where they want to go. And it's not just defaulted by the telcos or the handset manufacturers. So that was the reason. And obviously, they ended up making their own fork of Android, which is the most popular fork of Android that has Google as a default search engine. So yeah, and they get license fees from that.
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But fundamentally, it's really just in service of making sure that people go to Google search. So where that ends up sitting in a split up company, I have no idea. And Chrome, similarly, you know, Google originally supported Firefox and gave a lot of money to Firefox. And then Firefox just wasn't moving fast enough.
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So Google started hiring Firefox engineers and built Chrome in-house as a way to keep Netscape and Internet Explorer from blocking access to Google search and defaulting. And they built a default to Google search, obviously. What do you think, Jacob?
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Think about the math. Sorry, just real quick. Think about the math on that. So let's say it spins out and it generates 30 billion of revenue a year and Google owns the majority of it. And eventually they'll sell it down. But that business will be valued on the money that Google's paying. So Google will make that equity value back because they own the shares.
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I want to just underline what Chamath said real quick. Being big... can be very good in the sense that it can drive an ability to invest in innovation that is not possible without the scale and the significant cashflow that's being generated by being that big. And AT&T is a great example, Bell Labs,
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So the way AT&T was set up is there was all the local telephone companies under this Bell system that AT&T owned. And then Western Electric was the company that manufactured all the telephone equipment that was put into the telephone system. And then Bell Labs was the third entity. It was the research arm. And all that they did at Bell Labs was do research. And they were fully funded.
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They had all this cash flow pouring into them so they could discover and work on and invent whatever they wanted. With that capital, Bell Labs is so insane. If you guys haven't read any of the books on Bell Labs and what was discovered there and how it operated, it truly is like the most innovative center ever in human history. But they invented like antenna arrays. They invented microwaves.
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They invented radar. They invented the transistor. They invented information theory, which was the basis for everything in the Internet. There was even some efforts to try and invent a nuclear bomb before the Manhattan Project started. They invented integrated circuits and on and on and on and on.
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And that's because they could invest all this money in doing this research that would have been very difficult for a small startup or a company that's trying to grow and is barely profitable to be able to do. At Google, they've invested billions of dollars in Waymo.
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And I think as we all know, Waymo really was, if not the leader, but the inspiration for a whole generation of autonomous driving that ultimately will come to market and will really transform our lives in a meaningful way.
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In the same way Amazon and Microsoft and Meta have all invested tens of billions of dollars in innovation, look at what Zuck is doing at Meta with the open sourcing of the Lama models. It's incredible that
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would have never been possible if you had a small company that was trying to get profitable so i just want to highlight like these businesses just because they're big and successful doesn't necessarily mean that they're stifling innovation in fact they may be accelerating innovation and enabling progress i'm just pointing out that the cash flows that are being generated the way they're investing those cash flows is pretty pretty impressive and we lose that if we end up going after every big company just because they're big and saying hey we should take away their ability to do this
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CEO of Chipotle. Chipotle. Who knows? I don't need it in this place.
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Well, the one argument is there's a founder-led problem here, which is when the founder steps out and professional management takes over and you have the same expectations that you had when the Starbucks faces many more kind of macro economic challenges. Nick, if you pull up a Starbucks financial report.
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So here you can see that their net revenue growth was only a 1% year over year, but their operating margin has been on the decline. So they have not really been able to boost their operating margin very much in the past five years. So while they've raised prices, they've had a really hard time making more money.
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And that's because the cost of food and the cost of labor and the cost of rent and the capital expenditures needed to upgrade stores has far exceeded the ability for them to grow revenue and compete. And now revenue is flatlining because consumers are getting tapped out with respect to how much they can spend.
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And there's only so much innovation you can really do to charge more, get people to come in the store more. and drive up revenue. Brian Niccol has an incredible reputation. Prior to Chipotle, he ran Taco Bell. And he ran Taco Bell for several years and made it one of the most profitable QSR or quick serve restaurants in the world. He did this by focusing on every nickel.
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He is notorious for being a cost cutter, for being an efficiency driver, for being a productivity hound. He goes into the business and he figures out every step in the supply chain, every step of the operating activities of the employees in the stores and figures out ways to make sure-
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Keep going. That was good. And... And so he was recruited heavily. I don't know if you guys remember Chipotle's founder was running Chipotle. And at the time there was a lot of investor activism around Chipotle because they were wasting money like no one's business. The guy had a private jet. He was flying his management team back and forth between Denver and New York.
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They were spending money on crazy projects. And the board fired the CEO, founder of Chipotle, brought in Nickel. Nickel came in and made Chipotle an incredibly profitable, growing business. And the expectation is he'll come in and do the same here, that maybe over the years, Starbucks' success has bred laziness.
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Starbucks' success has bred fat, slowness, productivity decline, and that this guy is the right guy to come in and find all the nickels. And Brian Nichols is probably the right guy, which is why you're seeing the stock kind of rally as hard as it has.
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Oh my God, well done. So good.
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I'm going to go get an espresso after this. This is making me want an espresso.
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No, but I mean, here's what happened. The thing about Starbucks, I study Starbucks, and I've spent some time with Howard Schultz, actually, a couple years ago. Well, you did retail, right? Maybe you could talk about your eats experience.
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But the thing about Starbucks is they realized early on that when you can customize a consumer experience, the consumer comes back more frequently. So when you see your name written on that cup, you feel like you're getting your product. You're not buying an off-the-shelf product. You're getting a custom personalized experience. What that led to is people customizing their drinks.
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And what did they find that they liked when they customized their drinks? Sugary sweet add-ons. And then that became more and more of the standard menu. And then that just kept evolving.
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And that's just the consumer feedback mechanism working, which is to Chamath's point, led to 60 gram sugar drinks that are now the standard product at Starbucks, not an espresso or a cappuccino, which is how they started. And it's really unfortunate.
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I don't think that Brian Nichols is going to focus on that, to be honest, given his background with Taco Bell and Chipotle, that there was never anything.
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Jake, what do you think? I mean, what do you think about Starbucks?
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Yeah, I will also, I will predict... Yeah, no.
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Yeah, we had automation. I actually worked on an automation project with Jonathan at Sweetgreen and Starbucks and Chipotle. Oh, you did? So I knew them all. Yeah. And then the Chipotle CEO got fired. We were going to roll out automation with Chipotle and he got fired and Nickel came in and our deal blew up. it killed the deal.
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Oh my God. So it was gonna take out, basically these businesses today are running at, call it 30% EBITDA margins at peak performance. That's like Chipotle's best class. By taking out labor, you could probably take out another 20 points of cost, which could translate into lower prices for consumers, higher throughput, lower wait times.
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All of these kind of experiential differentiators are gonna be significant. Certainly true for Starbucks, certainly true for Sweetgreen.
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I would expect that with Nickel coming in, you'll see some experimental stores, as you point out, J. Cal, that'll be more highly automated, but will also, I think one of the first things you're gonna see from Nickel within the first year at Starbucks is a reduction in the complexity of the menu.
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This is something he's done historically, and he focuses, like he did at Taco Bell, he creates a couple of key highlight products, And creates these innovative product ideas. And then those become the banners that bring people into the store. But it's a simpler menu with kind of more attractive, interesting products that bring people in.
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And then if you couple automation to reduce some of the cost, you can bring that labor cost down.
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There's four quintillion baristas. ordering options at Starbucks today. And so the expectation has always been that that is what brings people coming back to the store. But what Nickel has shown in the past with Chipotle and with Taco Bell is you can actually have a simpler menu with a few points of customization. You don't need to have infinite customization around everything.
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The cashier problem also creates a wait time problem because it's a serial ordering process. Everyone stands in line, they order one at a time. And there's only one, and so the barista's just taking-
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I mean, this clip is so brutal. We should talk about this in the context of Eric Schmidt's interview as well, J. Cal. Show the clip and then let's talk, let's show Eric Schmidt and talk about like work culture in America. I think this is a really important point.
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It's not just Google.
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This makes me so uncomfortable just hearing that, I feel. Holy ****. I mean, retire, bruh. Just retire. What does America value is the real question. Does America value success, performance, or does America value comfort? And the problem is American work culture has shifted to valuing comfort. And that is the inevitable outcome of decades of extraordinary success.
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And now the performance culture is losing to the comfort culture.
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Why did you do a paid promo for Bucks at Woodside? I don't, they gave you a hat.
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No.
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Using the podcast to sell onion rings. Perfect.
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I mean, you're selling potatoes and Chamats is getting Laura Piana. To sell onion rings.
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Well, influence our culture.
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Bell Labs did the same thing. Bell Labs had a quad that you had to walk through to go from meeting to meeting. So everyone interacted, intersected.
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Yes. I unequivocally hate socialism. Socialism destroys innovation, destroys productivity, and destroys individual liberties. Agriculture and food markets have insanely competitive dynamics because there are commodity markets. There are tons of competitors. There is no monopoly in making food. There is no monopoly in making CPG products. There is no monopoly in retail.
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There is no monopoly in grocery stores. It is a small margin, highly competitive, highly fragmented free market. And the free market works in that everyone is always competing with each other, creating new productivity improvements. And as a result, over time, prices come down, except when the government intervenes and gets involved. So I would argue...
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that the real cause of price inflation in food is not the supposed price gouging by corporate players in the ag and food industry, all of whom are deeply competitive with one another, but rather is the result of the inflation associated with government spending and stimulus coming out of COVID. Nick, exhibit one. The Fed balance sheet.
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From COVID to today, the Fed balance sheet grew from $4.2 trillion to $7.2 trillion, a growth of 70%. The Federal Reserve went out and they bought assets and they issued debt to banks and introduced liquidity into the system. If you go to the next slide, as a result, the M2 money supply increased from $15 trillion to $21 trillion since COVID, a 40% increase.
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Okay, so now there is more money in the system, so the cost of everything should go up, which is exactly what we've seen. We can walk through a couple of the other commodity price charts from the St. Louis Fed. Here is the price of electricity. As an example, the price of electricity has gone up a little bit less than the M2 money supply.
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But the truth is, when you start to actually look at ag commodity prices over time, what's happened is there was certainly a boost coming from COVID, but the competition and the challenges in overproduction in the ag markets has started to hit. and started to bring prices back down. So here's the price of strawberries. Strawberries today are selling for less than they were pre-COVID.
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Potatoes are now back to where they were pre-COVID. Now, let me give you some statistics on some of the supposed price gouging companies in the industry. Kraft Heinz stock pre-COVID was 29 bucks a share. Today, Kraft Heinz stock is 34 bucks a share. 2019 revenue of 25 billion, 2023 revenue of 26 billion. EBITDA on 2019 of 6.1 billion, EBITDA on 2023 of 6.3 billion.
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There's not a lot of profit gouging. In fact, Kraft Heinz has not been able to keep up with the inflation. Starbucks, which we just talked about, their stock was at $90 pre-COVID and today, 93 bucks. 2019 revenue of 26 billion, operating income of 4.1 billion, 2023 revenue of 36 billion, but operating income only 5.9. Margins have come down in Starbucks. Nick, if you pull up the McKinsey chart,
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This is a study of the grocery industry. The State of Grocery in North America 2023 by McKinsey. Accelerating pressures on profitability to cope with the pandemic's upheaval, grocers have had to dramatically increase capex, increase supplies. As a result, they've seen a significant impact on margins. Here's the margin profile pre-pandemic and today.
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Gross margin has declined by two points from 47.6 to 45.6. EBITDA margin has declined by one and a half points. And now let's just go to the final chart, which is CPG companies, the companies that make food and sell it to consumers. As you can see, during the COVID era, the three-year rolling TSR has declined since COVID across the board. So food companies are seeing food prices come down.
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So farmers are really suffering. Labor costs have tripled since the pandemic, but they're still having to sell products at the same price. CPG companies have lower margins and supermarkets have lower margins. So there is nowhere in the ag or food supply chain that we are seeing fundamentally price gouging or profit taking happening.
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What has happened is the cost of labor, the cost of moving stuff around, the cost of fuel, the cost of electricity, the cost of goods has all risen with inflation because of the increase in the money supply and federal spending and the stimulus associated with the Federal Reserve buying assets onto their balance sheet.
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So arguably, I would say that trying to step in and cap prices will reduce competition and as a result will reduce investment in improving productivity. And we have seen this countless times with every socialist experiment in human history has started with caps on food. And it has resulted in bread lines like you see in the image behind me today, as we can see in Soviet Russia. This is a mistake.
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It is a problem, and it's anti-American. It is anti-free market. It is anti-innovation. It is anti-productivity. And ultimately, it's anti-liberty. And I cannot stand it. That's my rant.
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To support your point and what Chamath was messaging on our chat, look at Walmart stocks up 7% today because they offer lower priced solutions to consumers and Dollar General and Dollar Tree are rallying as well. When the market competes, consumers benefit and there are companies that will win. And the companies that try to price gouge and the companies that try to charge too much will lose.
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Starbucks has been trying to charge too much for sugar water. They have a real problem they are now tackling. Walmart is trying to bring value to consumers. They are winning. That is how free markets work. When the government steps in and says, here's how much margin you can make or here's how much prices should be, it ruins everything.
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And the entire incentive structure goes away and you end up with bread lines. Saxy poo, what do you got?
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and your thoughts broadly on this. I'll just start by commenting. I'm not really sure what the improvement to consumer pricing or competition would be in different breakup scenarios. I'd really like to understand the DOJ's analysis on that. How does breaking up one of these things improve the consumer experience?
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J. Cal, do you agree? Do you think her strategy is off at this point? And Is it starting to hurt her to put out these proposals?
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I could see the case for Android because Android defaults to Google search, but again, Android's an open source operating system. And so everyone has their own fork or a lot of the handset manufacturers will have their own fork of Android. Obviously the Google fork defaults to Google search. So it benefits Google services quite well.
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I think an educated voter base is going to wake up to that. And particularly in that independent segment, there's going to be a lot of acknowledgement that maybe these are not going to be the right policies.
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I think that would be an analysis that the DOJ would really have to kind of prove out that there is real anti-competition associated with Google's influence over the open source Android operating system fork that they manage and license out. I think understanding that would be good. I do think that there's a lot of value unlock in YouTube. So if Google were to just generally spin out YouTube,
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Well, I wanted to just highlight the Starliner project and the issues.
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Give us an overview and then let's chop it up as we wrap. Two NASA astronauts flew on the Boeing Starliner capsule. June 5th and they docked with the ISS and they're now stuck on the ISS and they might be stuck there until February because the Starliner has a number of technical issues. The astronauts cannot get back in the Starliner and just fly back to Earth.
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Speaking of looking healthy. Celebrated birthday with Jason Kuhn yesterday. Happy 39th, Jason Kuhn.
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NASA's kind of evaluating the options here on what to do and whether to put them on a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule in February to get them back. So I just want to talk a little bit about the history of this project. and provide a little context before we highlight the particularly acute story of two astronauts being stuck in space right now, which is an incredible story.
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So this is a next gen space capsule that was designed to take people to and from low Earth orbit, basically to the ISS. And NASA, if you guys remember in the 2000s, decided to stop making their own vessels and they're gonna start using third-party contractors. So they went out and had a competitive bidding process. And ultimately in 2010, they gave both SpaceX
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and Boeing, the winning contracts to develop these commercial crew transportation capabilities. SpaceX obviously developed the Crew Dragon capsule. So it was unveiled in 2010 as the CST-100, Boeing's first commercially developed space capsule. The company would take on all the financial risk for developing it with a fixed price contract from NASA of $4.2 billion.
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To date, by the way, Boeing has taken a $1.6 billion financial hit on the development of this program. SpaceX, by the way, won a $2.6 billion contract to develop the Crew Dragon capsule. And just to give you guys a sense, the Crew Dragon capsule has flown 13 missions thus far to the ISS. And this was the first... crewed mission flown by Boeing, both of which got contracts at the same time.
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So originally, it was going to be a 2017 launch timeline. And I just want to hit on some of the history of the Starliner problems. 2016, it was delayed.
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that contract with Boeing to develop this Starliner capsule. So the first issues arose in 2016 when there were design problems. The first crewed flight was then pushed back to be scheduled for 2019. In 2018, they found issues with propellant leaks, which led to more delays. 2019, a test flight parachute failed.
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December of 2019, they had their first uncrewed test flight and there were software errors that would have caused destruction of the spacecraft. This led to NASA and Boeing submitting 80 different changes that needed to happen before they did their next uncrewed test flight. So they then pushed that all the way out to 2021. Boeing ended up saying it cost us half a billion dollars to do that.
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Then in August of 2021, 13 propulsion system valve issues were discovered on the launch pad. The flight was aborted and the capsule was returned. They eventually got it up again in space in May of 2022 and it docked with the ISS. and it returned back to Earth, even though one of the parachutes failed when it returned to Earth, it still made it down.
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that is probably a business that on its own would attract an investor base that might otherwise not want to get into the conglomerate. And you know, there's always this notion of what's called a conglomerate discount. When you put a lot of different businesses together,
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This again led to the 2023 first crewed launch, which means people are in the capsule. This was originally supposed to be in 2017, and they kept pushing it back because of more issues with the parachute system. And then they finally got it launched in June 5th of 2024 with two astronauts on board to go to ISS and come back.
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On the way, they discovered that five out of the 28 maneuvering thrusters, which is how they can move this capsule through space to get it to dock with the ISS and ultimately make its way back to Earth, were malfunctioning. They have now discovered five helium leaks. Helium is stored in a pressurized system to actually control those thrusters and make it move through space.
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And now they may not even be able to get this capsule to fly off of the ISS.
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So on June 28th, NASA announced that while the Starliner is theoretically capable of returning the astronauts to Earth in an emergency on the ISS, the capsule is not approved to fly until these thruster issues and the leaking helium are figured out or better understood, and they have now pushed the decision to the end of August. It would be massively,
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embarrassing for Boeing if these two astronauts had to be rescued by SpaceX. It's a Crew Dragon capsule had to find its way up to the ISS. They hopped on and they came back to Earth. Clearly a massive problem, but it's certainly a personal and a human story now with these two astronauts stuck on the ISS.
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And to be clear- You've had a lot of comments on Boeing in the past, but I mean, does this feel like a continued underscoring of the issues at Boeing?
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Yeah, so the NASA Cargo Dragon, which only has a cargo on it, not people, has completed nine successful missions to and from the ISS. There are six more planned. And they've obviously done 13 missions with the Crew Dragon. And by the way, I don't know if you guys know this.
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This is a surprise, but exciting to share that we are going to have a Crew Dragon capsule from SpaceX at the All-In Summit in LA parked on the launch. You can actually go inside and check it out and take a little tour. It's going to be amazing. So thank you to the SpaceX team for bringing the Crew Dragon capsule.
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the businesses in aggregate get valued less than the individual parts would be valued on their own because different investors interested in a business investment thesis would like to bet on cloud, would like to bet on YouTube, would like to bet on AI. And so each one of these kind of like segments, if they can be unlocked, can actually be value creating in terms of overall market cap.
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It's 100% Shamath. That's a perfect example.
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The challenge is the way YouTube's infrastructure operates. It operates on shared infrastructure with the rest of Google services. So does cloud, so does search, so does AdWords. So there's one common... a cloud infrastructure that everything runs on. And then there's one common advertiser pool.
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I'd like to go hunting. Churchill took a bath every day.
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I'll call you later.
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Yes. We haven't had a general facts update in a while. I actually want to hear your take on the facts. Like, what is the real story? Yeah, talk about the humiliation of Putin. Yeah, tell us. Yeah. What is the real story with the Ukraine counter invasion into Russia?
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There are dedicated advertising salespeople within YouTube, but there's also dedicated shared infrastructure on advertising between YouTube and search and AdSense and so on. And there's ad sales teams that actually can sell across search. and third party publisher sites and YouTube.
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We did a long mountain bike ride with our other buddy, Z, and had a little family barbecue last night. Everyone had a good time.
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And so, you know, breaking up those shared teams becomes a little more technically difficult, but YouTube certainly seems like an unlock. The question is what happens with all the infrastructure layer? Does that go with cloud? And if it does, then YouTube, AdWords and search all become customers of cloud. So that might be one way that this could work.
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But I think net net, if this were to happen, there could be a lot of upside in the market cap. I'll also say it just feels like the tenor of all of this is anti success. and not anti-competition. And anything that's kind of successful or big is automatically deemed to be a monopoly.
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And I think we really have to kind of understand how are consumers and the market for competition being affected by having all these things together. And that's what should really be focused on and studied, not just the fact that something is big and successful. And we'll see how that all plays out.
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Let's just say I show up with my own food to a barbecue.
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Yeah, so they were both created... to avoid third parties blocking access to Google search. That's why they were both started. And remember, Sundar was the product manager on Chrome originally. That was his big kind of product that he ran for quite some time.
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So Android was all about making sure that the handset manufacturers didn't basically default consumers to do search and use the internet in a way that would disadvantage Google. So Google said, you know what, just like Zuck is doing currently with Llama, Google said, let's make an open sourced, mobile operating system that's better than any other mobile operating system.
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I've said this a number of times, but all of the founding fathers had jobs, had professions, and they stepped in to serve their country as a civic duty, participated in the process of executing the the responsibilities of government and then stepped out and went back to their private lives.
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I think it is such a more powerful model for government than people who choose to be politicians, to represent people as a living, because it creates extraordinarily nasty incentive structures, if that's the model, which is, for example, to curry favor with private industry participants and then go cash that favor in after you leave.
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And I think that this alternative where you have people who are, everyone looks at them and, oh, they're all billionaires and so on, they're actually, because they're independently wealthy and they have enough money than they'll ever spend, I think Larry Page once said, you can never spend more than a billion dollars in your life no matter how hard you try. It's literally impossible.
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People think like, oh, you could spend all that money. Actually, when you buy stuff, most of the stuff you buy are capital assets that you end up selling later. It's very hard to spend at that level. So when you have people that are truly independently wealthy,
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their motivation is actually quite different than someone who's trying to make it from 100K to 500K of net worth or 50K to a million of net worth. And I think it actually creates a higher degree of freedom and it aligns the people much more in the long-term outcome of government rather than their own personal interests.
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But let me give you the counter to that, Chamath. Because the counter to that, which comes up a lot, just so you can frame the response, is why are all these people coming out of pharma companies to regulate pharma? Why are all these people coming out of big ag companies to regulate big ag? Why are all these people that come from energy companies coming to regulate energy?
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The common refrain is business people are basically bringing business interests into the government by transporting themselves into these regulatory bodies versus having career politicians or what you call bureaucrats be kind of independent regulatory authorities. So what's the response in that context to that, that refrain?
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Keith, where do you fall?
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That's true.
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All right. Well, what about running companies? Should company CEOs be dictators?
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Google's announcement is a paper published in Nature that follows a preprint they actually put out in August. So this news has been out for a little bit. There's obviously a press cycle this week around it to kind of make a big thing about it. But it is a very kind of important milestone in the evolution of quantum computing. So do you want me to kind of talk about quantum computing again?
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I think we've talked about this in the past.
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The big breakthrough here is that the whole basis of a quantum computer is called a qubit or a quantum bit. It's radically different than a bit, a binary digit, which we use in traditional computers. digital computing, which is a one or a zero. A quantum bit, you can kind of think about it as a wave function. It's sort of a quantum state of a molecule.
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And if we can contain that quantum state and get it to interact with other molecules based on their quantum state, you can start to gather information as an output that can be the result of what we would call quantum computation.
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And that sounds complicated, but what it really means is that instead of doing kind of binary computation where we're adding numbers together or doing kind of other traditional arithmetic, there are really interesting functions you can do with qubits. Qubits can, for example, be entangled. So two of these molecules can actually relate to one another at a distance.
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They can also interfere with each other, so canceling out the wave function. And then when you read it out, you get a result that is basically a very, very complex problem that is solved through this quantum interpretation. it's really hard to kind of highlight how different this is from traditional computing.
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So quantum computing creates entirely new opportunities for algorithms that can do really incredible things that really don't even make sense on a traditional computer. They're not possible to kind of resolve on a traditional computer. And sorry, let me just state one thing. The quantum bit needs to hold its state for a period of time in order for a computation to be done.
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And so the big challenge in quantum computing is how do you build a quantum computer that has multiple qubits that hold their state for a long enough period of time, that they don't make enough errors that you can actually do a computation with them. So what Google was able to demonstrate here is they created these call it logical qubits. So they put several qubits together.
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And by putting several qubits together, they were able to kind of have an algorithm that sits on top of it that figures out, hey, this, this group of physical qubits is now one logical qubit may balance the results of each one of them. So each one of them has some error. And as they put more of these together, what they were able to demonstrate for the first time ever is that the error went down.
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So when they did a three by three qubit structure, the error was higher than when they went to five by five, and then they went to seven by seven, and the error rate kept going down and down and down.
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So this is an important milestone because now it means that they have the technical architecture to build a chip or a computer using multiple qubits that can all kind of interact with each other with a low enough fault tolerance or a low enough error rate that they can start to do these quantum calculations. This is a big area of opportunity.
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One of the very interesting areas that a lot of people are talking about is in cryptography. So there's an algorithm by a professor who was at MIT for many years named Shore. It's called Shore's algorithm. And in 1994, 1995, I think around that time, he basically came up with this idea that you could use a quantum computer to factor numbers almost instantly.
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And all modern encryption standards, so all of the RSA standards, everything that Bitcoin's blockchain is built on, all of our browsers, all server technology, all computer technology, security technology is built on algorithms that are based on number factorization. So if you can factor a very large number, a number that's 256 digits long, theoretically, you could break a code.
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And it's really impossible to do that with traditional computers at the scale that we operate our encryption standards at today. But a quantum computer can do it in seconds or minutes. And that's based on Shor's algorithm. And if you want, there's some great YouTube videos that describe Shor's algorithm and how it works. But it's like mind blowing when you look at it.
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It's like this really like non-intuitive, but simple set of steps that when you put them together on a quantum computer, it's like this thing can instantly figure out all the factors and then you can break a code.
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One of the things that this highlights is that in a couple of years, theoretically, if Google continues on this track and now they build a large scale computer, they theoretically would be in a position to start to run some of these quantum algorithms like Shor's algorithm.
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J. Cal, do you want to give Keith's background for the audience?
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And so we're now kind of spitting distance or a couple of years, it's not really clear, is it three years, five years, seven years, but a couple of years away from having computers that theoretically could crack all encryption standards. And there are a set of encryption standards that are called post quantum encryption.
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And all of computing and all software is going to need to move to post quantum encryption in the next couple of years. So there's like this big kind of push now to like, how do we do that? How do we accelerate it?
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Just to give you a sense on the numbers, like Google's target for fault tolerance on a quantum chip to make it logically useful is 1 times 10 to the negative 6. Right now, this Willow chip is kind of running at 99.7%. So it's still a few orders of magnitude away.
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They have a long way to go in getting the fault tolerance low enough to actually build logical gates using qubits that can resolve kind of computational output. And so there's still a build cycle ahead. And that pathway is a little bit unclear. But what they've shown is this almost feels like the Shockley transistor moment. It's like, here's this transistor. Now everyone's like,
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They have a whole team in Santa Barbara. They've been running for like 10 years.
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For the sampling test they ran.
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So Keith, you're not buying any quantum computing stock yet?
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Nothing maps. Nothing maps at all.
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Yeah.
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interesting thing is there's a lot of work that's been done in this space like thinking about quantum computing and quantum algorithms is like an entire branch people do spend a lot of time thinking about this and working on this and there are ways you can kind of simulate and test and start to build out models for how you could utilize quantum computers but obviously we just don't have you know industrial scale systems at this point there was one
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You know, you know, the crazy thing for us. So the crazy thing about quantum physics is such a mind. Have you guys taken quantum mechanics? I have not.
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I remember the summer I took it like the quantum, the first quantum mechanics class. And I was like, glad it was a summer course because you really have to like think pretty deeply. about what you've learned in quantum mechanics, there's just nothing about it that's intuitive. Like the way we kind of think about the world is not the way the quantum world operates.
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In the case of a qubit, as soon as you measure the qubit, it collapses to a value. If you try and measure it, if you try and look at it, it goes to zero or one. The probability by which it goes to zero or one is defined by, you know, the quantum state right at the moment you observe it. It's just such a mind.
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So effectively, this thing is existing in a superposition in multiple states at the same time, until you try to observe it. And that's the case of quantum mechanics. So what's kind of happening, I think, in that language, J Cal is nothing novel was kind of discovered or represented. That's just quantum mechanics. It's a mind.
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And you could go watch hours of YouTube videos if you want to like, get taken down the mind rabbit hole of quantum mechanics and realize like, I think one thing I've always found fascinating about this discipline is that looking at a qubit changes it. Like it understands it's true for any article, there's a slit experiment. And if you try and observe
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a light as a particle versus a wave, it actually changes what happens, what the outcome is of it being a particle or a wave. Same with electrons. The thing about quantum mechanics is the observation of a particle changes what happens. Serious question.
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The quantum state of the cat is it's both in the box and not in the box.
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And then you open the box and there's an X probability that it's in the box, X probability it's not in the box. But when you don't see it, it's both. It's both.
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Well, we got more engagement from Keith on that science corner than we have from David Sachs in four years.
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Yeah, he would have said, He would have done this. He would have done his move where he goes stupid and then like... Next topic.
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What's the name of the group chat?
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Have I skied with you, Jason? I don't think I have.
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It's going to be fun. He's got skiing hips. They kind of shift left, right, left, right. Childbearing hips. The hips are wider than the shoulders, yeah.
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I disagree with the conflation of Lena Kahn into all this stuff too much. She's a big company break-apart. kind of mandate. It has nothing to do with tech M&A, small, like the typical kind of deal flow stuff that I think you're focused on. I've said this a number of times, so I'll just say it again.
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But I think on the general liquidity thing, I don't think that the thing holding up acquisitions and IPOs is markets. I actually think it's investor and board expectations on valuation relative to where they put money in the last couple of years. So if you look at the valuations from 21 to 23, early 23, so much money went in at such high prices.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Those investors can take those companies public today. There's a public market appetite at all times for anything, just depends on the valuation. And the real issue right now is that a lot of the VCs, the late stage private equities, the ones that did the big markups in the late stage D rounds, E rounds, et cetera, they don't want to take these things out and take a 60, 70% haircut on the IPO.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
They'd rather kind of let this thing sit private and see if they can earn their way back into the valuation that they did the mark at when they put the round together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah, I mean, these overhangs are very real. I don't think the exit liquidity dearth fundamentally is driven by markets. I think it's just driven by the sell side and the investor expectations.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Those are big deals. The small deals are different. The small deals are more, the small deals are the fact that over a couple of years, like Google bought a cybersecurity, like there are these acquisitions that happen at 800 million that maybe should have been done at 200, 250.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And again, it's the same problem that the sellers of the high quality companies demand too high a premium that the buyers of these rational scaled companies are like, that's not worth it. Just like IPO candidates. So I don't know, Keith, if you've got a experience.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
How do you feel about Ukraine? By the time you have me back, hopefully that's solved.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
The way it seems... Well, I think the way the Saylor... financial structure is set up is it looks a lot like a synthetic call option on bitcoin you get a convertible note so you earn a coupon on the note and then you have a conversion price which is a premium to the stock price which you can translate if you look at the book value or the net asset value of the stock
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
That's how much Bitcoin there is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah, the premium that the conversion price is at tells you what Bitcoin needs to be for you to have equity upside. So it's effectively a convertible note. You earn a coupon and then you have a conversion premium that you can kind of convert to equity, which basically gives you a call option. You're saying the premium you're paying is the price for the call option, effectively.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And you're earning this kind of coupon in the meantime. So it's a way for some people to kind of trade the price of Bitcoin. Seems like this guy said a lot of hedge funds. And I don't know if you guys saw the CNBC article that it's kind of like Bloomberg. It's like the hottest trade in hedge fund land right now is to buy up these convertible notes that he's issuing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So if you actually were to sit down and do the Black-Scholes modeling of the value of the synthetic call option that he's selling you with the convertible note, there's a reason people are paying for it. They think that there's value there. So there's certainly something to the structure that makes sense. All right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I've had both KV and FF as investors, lead investors in both climate and at Ohalo now. So I know both firms really well. And it's really, I always, people always ask me about the difference between the two. That's always what I get to. It's like founder is fun. They have this kind of mantra. They find great founders and just get out of the way, let them run. And they don't want to be helpful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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That's not their objective. They feel like if they have to be helpful, it's not the kind of founder. I mean, keep obviously speaking- outside of yourself. And then at Coastal, as you know, Vinod has been extremely, and the whole team there, especially climate and always have always been extremely helpful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So adding board members, introducing commercial partners, being like very traditionally proactive, participatory VCs on the board, very different, both very valuable. When I had a board issue at Founders Fund, and there were some board members that did not like my strategy, had issues with what I was doing with the company at Climate Corp at the time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Founders Fund actually stepped up and protected me. And they got the board, the rest of the board together to protect me in a way that was like actually at a very kind of crucial moment for the business. And as a result, we had a massive exit within a year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Why are you being anti-Semitic, bro?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Well, look, I mean, at the end of the day, if people feel like they're progressing, they feel happier. They feel like they're not progressing, they're unhappy, regardless of their absolute state. You know, we talked about this with Jonathan Haidt on our interview show. We talked about this on the show in the past.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I think that there's some studies that show that if income growth is not roughly 10% a year, you get an unhappiness indicator. And then there are other associations with that. Like, am I improving the size of my house? Am I able to buy a new car? Am I able to like progress in my career and make more money?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
All these factors kind of play in and much of this ends up being buoyed by the political ideology of the candidate that's in the office and how they are popularizing what they are doing to help you progress, even if you are or are not actually progressing. So then people hear the political leadership say, this is what we're doing. You associate that as being positive or negative.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you're a Republican or you're a Democrat, you associate it as one or the other. And so you have this perception of progression without actually having economic progression be tied to it. So the reality is gets decoupled. So I think it's an excellent chart to kind of highlight that fact.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I'm not sure how much it ties to this inflationary issue that we're dealing with right now, but I will tell you that, and I'll restate this again, Much of the inflation, like I think grocery prices are up 30 plus percent. Nick, you could probably pull this up since COVID.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Yeah, the more globalized the businesses are that are providing the goods or services to us, the more likely they are to need to hike prices to make up for the inflationary cost structure in their business because of their global presence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
The general statement might be made that perhaps the first AI mini bubble is bursting a bit and particularly with respect to the accelerated expectations that public market investors had for public market technology stocks, that perhaps now is the time for a bit of a reckoning, that perhaps this isn't going to happen at the same margin level or the pace that folks had modeled. Correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And this is going to cause a bit of a setback.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
There's a cold hard truth here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Which is there is a ton of capital that was raised during the COVID bubble era and the Zerp era that needed a place to go. And a lot of the traditional businesses, traditional business models, traditional in the technology sense, SaaS and a lot of the biotech stuff, it all became- Apps. It became uninvestable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Then there's a lot of money in the public markets that was sitting on the sidelines, that was sitting in treasuries and so on. So every dollar is looking for growth, and there's a lot of dollars still sitting around out there from the Zerp era and coming into this kind of post-Zerp era, looking for a place for growth. And there is very little growth, as we talked about with the S&P 493,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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not being very performative with respect to growth and revenue and having great outlook for the next five years. So then when there is a glimmer of upside, there's a glimmer of opportunity, even if it's just painting a picture of a growth story, all the capital drives into it. And we've all heard stories about these series A startups in AI getting bid up to $100 million valuation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And I've seen a couple of these where people have pitched me things on like protein modeling AI startups. And it's literally like two guys from Meta and OpenAI that left and started this company. And they get, they raised 30 on a 120 pre or something. And it's just two guys building a model. And that's because that capital needs to find a place where it can tell itself a growth story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And so I think that we're still dealing with the capital hangover from Zerp and the fact that there's a dearth of areas to invest for real growth that has allowed the AI bubble to kind of grow as quickly as it has. And now, as Chamath points out, we are kind of rationalizing that back. And I do think that there's going to be a reset.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Now, I'll also say that the Goldman report, which I read, and some of the other analyses that have been done, I think there was some commentary or some analysis that, hey, it costs me six times as much as having an analyst do this work. Like the energy cost of the AI is still so high, the actual performance of the model is not good. But what that fails to, it's right and wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's right in the sense that yes, it is more expensive today and the return on investment is not there today. It's wrong in that it ignores the performative model improvements that we're seeing in nearly any metric over the past couple of months. Every few months, as we know, we see new models
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
new improvements, new architectures, new ways of leveraging the chips to actually drive a lower token cost, to drive lower energy cost per answer, lower energy cost per run. And so every metric that matters is improving. So if you fast forward another 24, 36 months, I do think that there's a great reason to be optimistic that there's gonna be extraordinary ROI
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
based on the infrastructure that's being built, it's a question of, are you going to get payback before the next cycle of infrastructure needs to be made and everything comes back in?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
We saw this during the dot-com boom, where a lot of people built out data centers, and by the time they were actually able to make money on those data centers, it was like, hey, all the new telco equipment, all the new servers need to be put in, and everything got written off.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So there is a big CAPEC kind of question mark here, but I do think that the fundamental economics of AI will be proven over the next couple of quarters.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
A lot of outdoor sunning happening last couple of weeks. Yeah. Enjoying the vitamin D.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
There was effectively a center and left alignment that created kind of a surprise upset to the right that was surging in the polls leading into this election in France. And as we all saw, there was a lot of celebration in the streets and some rioting and so on. But it was a real kind of surprise shift left in this kind of important vote that happened in France. And then
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
The party stepped up and put forward these economic proposals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They said a 90% tax on income over €400,000 a year, a 14% mandatory wage increase, retirement age needs to be reduced to the age of 60 from 64, which obviously massively increases social spending, and that they want to put forward proposals to put in place price controls on things like food, electricity, gas, and petrol, so effectively intervening in kind of the free market pricing system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Last month in India, we also saw elections where the BJP did not get a majority. In Mexico, we saw Scheinbaum get elected with 60% of the vote, retaining the leftist government. Scheinbaum's platform is that the government's role is to really solve the economic inequality kind of throughout the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
She is a Jewish scientist who believes in technological progress, but her orientation is really around having institutions manage progress, not individuals in free markets. We've seen this broad across other places.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
In the UK, there was a big election in this past week, but I wanted to take a step back and just highlight that there is this kind of emerging tactical alliance that we've seen repeat a few times between the left and the center that pushes back against the right globally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
But really what I think we're seeing is a much bigger shift where there's this bigger battle between socialism and free market democracy. And I think that We're seeing it all happen at once because of globalism and because of the fact that globalism has enabled, just like we've seen manifest in the United States, massive and significant economic progress
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
but at the cost of a small number of people becoming very wealthy and a large number of people feeling left behind as a result of the wealth accumulating in a major way to a small number of people. And the reaction that we're seeing in France, in India, in Mexico, in the US, in the UK is all very much kind of aligned. That there is this big push that social lift practices
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
can perhaps resolve the inequality and the inefficiencies that are seen in the markets today. And this is being manifested in a lot of really nasty ways. First of all, I think it's rationalized as being, hey, there's economic excess for a few while the majority are left behind.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's activated by big bureaucracy, by anti-free market principles, and by tax policies and spending policies that will ultimately cripple economic growth. And I don't want to say I'm against taxes because I'm all for taxes to make up for budget deficits.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
But I think the results are ultimately across all of this going to be what we saw happen in Argentina, which I think is on the other side of this problem, which is unsustainable debt accumulation, massive inflation and crippling unemployment. And I think that we should really take a hard look at what's happening around the world right now as being all related.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
All of the industrialized world is voting in a similar way and starting to shift in a similar way that we should be fairly concerned about and pay a lot of attention to. In the US, there's this expectation that Trump is gonna totally trounce Biden if Biden stays in the race.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I think that if we see the same sort of thing happen in the US in that the psyche of people are that we feel left behind, that there's a hierarchical system that disadvantages the majority of people because economic progress is not proportional to everyone. You could end up seeing a surprise sort of voting system emerge in the US where the left may win,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Because socialist principles are on the rise in the psyche of the youth in the industrialized world. And I'm not saying I'm making a prediction about how the election is going to go in the U.S., but I do think that there's a big kind of fundamental change underway here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So all these systems ultimately resolve to a two-party system where some minority can hijack one of the parties to enforce their will ideologically. I think that's kind of my point. In fact, I mean, you know, the day after the election, there was this statement on some of their economic priorities. Increase the tax rate to 90% on income over 400K, drop the retirement age from 64 to 60.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I mean, you know, you go down the list, you know, putting in price controls on free market services and products and goods, this is a lot of what we're seeing kind of repeated in a bunch of different ways. It's all the same story with different characters all over the industrialized world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They just lost majority in India, right? Which is the first time in 12 years. And the UK is also up in disarray.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Not a super majority. Sorry. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Do you think socialist ideologies are on the rise in the youth in the industrialized world? And is that showing up in elections around the world?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
In the past, socialism has won when this has happened. This has happened. This happened after World War I. It's happened multiple times in history where we've seen the socialists rise in these moments.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I really hope you're right. I just worry about like the trend of economic globalization has kind of moved every, because it used to be that every country kind of looked like its own country politically. And there's just a lot of alignment happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I think the market's priced in a lot of the expectation already. If you look at the PE chart on the S&P 500 going back five years, let's pull this one up real quick. You can see that we peaked out obviously in 2020, 2021, where we had a big boom with all the stimulus money coming in and all the money found its way into the markets during the end of the ZERP era.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And then there was the slow wind down as we started to hike rates. and then rate hikes peaked. And now, despite the fact that rate hikes have stopped and there have been conversations about when the reversal will happen, the market's already started to price in that reversal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So with respect to like market valuations, we have still seen a rather significant increase in the PE ratio across the S&P 500. Now to Chamath's point, a large percentage of that is contributed to by the top seven tech companies that are driving that ratio inflation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
But a lot of the market makers have already started to take action, expecting the rate cuts to come in, as you point out, J.K.L., 90% plus likelihood of rate cuts happening this year. So I don't know how much market action we will see. But there has been a lot of conversation from D.C. about the Fed should reset expectations on inflation from 2% to 3%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And if they did that, that becomes the new normal. And we're never going to get back to 2%, at least in this current kind of era. that might be the era that we start, the level that we start to see. Oh, really?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
That's been a big push. Interesting. The Jerome Powell mandate of 2% inflation may be an expectation that cannot be met given the amount of stimulus that went into the economy during COVID that it could take a decade to earn its way out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
As a result, we will not see a normalized contraction of that capital coming out of the markets in a way that will get us back down to 2% inflation for the time being. And I just saw a presentation by a bunch of food company executives recently, and they took 13 to 15 percent price hikes last year. And you've heard Elizabeth Warren kind of chime on about this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
But the reality is that inflation is not just in the U.S., but around the world. And it affects the U.S. markets as well, because a lot of U.S. companies have had to raise prices because of their dependence on labor and materials and commodities from other countries that are inflating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Exactly. And because of the way that the globalized economy works today, the inflation around the world is going to continue to buoy inflation in the US, even if we get our house in order. So it's very unlikely that we get back to a two-handle, you know, at least in this kind of era.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And as a result, you'll probably see the market kind of assume that we're going to be at a 3% kind of inflation level for quite some time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
This is a great chart.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Because if they don't- Well, it's a terrible precedent to set because if you do it for Florida, then you'll have to do it in Texas and Louisiana and Mississippi.
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And California and Arizona and Texas. There's going to be no way to create a clear demarcation of who gets a bailout and who doesn't, which will mean that everybody will get a bailout or nobody gets a bailout. That's right. And if everybody gets a bailout, and if you think about how systematically unpredictable, at least in the Southern states,
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the weather is, you're gonna be talking hundreds of billions of dollars a year, probably.
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That's probably the reason why they'll have to do it because they'll... But then that calculation will have to happen for every single homeowner in every single state at where this is an issue.
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I think what Freebrook is saying is that there's a pretty obvious parade of terribles here where the question will have to be answered one way or the other. Because if you only have a $17 billion reinsurance fund and there's $50 billion of damage, somebody's going to have to come in and cover the gap. And if it's the insurance companies, expect your insurance premiums to double or triple.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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This is what I was going to say. Most of these big insurance companies have already done the calculus to realize that these regions are no longer profitable enough to justify the downside risk. That's the bigger problem. So then the ones that are left
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are insolvent reinsurers or insurers that are just funding short-term ARBs because they know that the odds are they're going to get wiped out, so they'll price gouge effectively. So, you know, a different example is that here where I live in Menlo Park, we're not in a floodplain, we're not in a fire region, none of that stuff.
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But in order for us to get home insurance, you have to now go through a risk assessment. And in our specific case, we were like, hey, what should we do with our roof? And they were like, you got to take the roof off if you want home insurance. We're like, well, home insurance is probably a good thing to have. Was it a wood shake roof? You saw our house.
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It's a beautiful wood shake roof, and we had to remove it. And the two choices were a $350,000 iron roof. Composite materials, yeah. Or like 70K for composite. And it's like, this is insane. And the cost of insurance was just egregious in the absence of...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Even if you don't get affected by a wildfire or disaster, when that article was in the Wall Street Journal, I think it said that the number of average days above 100 was like 100-something. Yes, that's right. And they profiled this retired woman who was an insurance adjuster or something,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
And the whole point of the article was not that her house was destroyed or at risk, but the cost of electricity has gone just absolutely sky high. Even with solar panels, even with storage, you need to basically lean on the grid. And the grid now just charges you an exorbitant amount of money. And so these folks were paying thousands of dollars a year. So if you imagine the trifecta,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
You have all of this climate risk that could destroy your home. You're paying an enormous premium for home insurance, and then you're paying an enormous premium for electricity from the mainline power utilities. It's not sustainable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Those things work because you have broad geographic coverage. If you had to go just into Malibu and self insurer, the rates would literally be greater than the value of the home, right, no one would pay into it.
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My personal belief is I think that the real estate markets in some of these places are meaningfully mispriced. And specifically what I mean is that they're massively overpriced.
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Because I think when you actually account for the climate damage and the long-term financial stability of the insurers and the reinsurers... I don't think that many of the markets that have seen these crazy sky-high prices, I'll name two to be specific, West Palm Beach and Malibu. So both ends of the coasts. These things just don't make sense.
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And I think people view these things as investments, but on the West Coast, when you deal with things like soil erosion and other things, I think it's a calamity waiting to happen. And I think on the East Coast, when you factor in the extreme weather conditions.
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Even Jason, your comment about rebuilding these homes in a more foolproof way doesn't solve it because you won't be able to rebuild the entire state. There's a lot of people that just can't afford it. There's a lot of folks that will not have adequate coverage. So I just think these are disasters waiting to happen, unfortunately.
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It became much more likely that they would win the Nobel after they won the breakthrough prize. I mean, just to point this out. Yeah, yeah. Shout out, Yuri Milman. Shout out, Yuri and Julia. And Julia. Because when those guys won that award for 2023, and you heard the extent of what they've done, it was almost like obvious that they were going to win Nobel after the fact.
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So I think the really interesting thing is actually... In this community, I think the Breakthrough Prize is actually meaningfully more relevant and a positive directional indicator to breakthrough science.
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I just think it's much more rigorous than the Nobel. I think the Nobel can be a little bit gamed, I think. Oh, interesting. Okay.
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Also a breakthrough prize winner. Yeah. What's interesting to me is like these two Nobels, these guys, but also Jeffrey Hinton's, you know, you're really seeing now the convergence of the hard sciences and computer science. In a really meaningful way. And I think that that's so interesting and cool.
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And- I actually think it's the opposite now, which is that it's amazing to see folks using computers to improve our understanding of the natural sciences. And I think that that's a really great place to be. So what Demis and John and David are doing in the life science is amazing.
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What Jeffrey Hinton did 30 and 40 years ago and 20 years ago in terms of training deep neural nets, also really amazing.
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No, but it's not even funny if you had said something else.
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Oh, is he? He wants to be back on the podcast.
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We'll check in in $100 billion.
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That door was closed when he insulted our guests about not being able to afford the Disney course.
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Unfortunately, not what Freeberg just said. It'll be the opposite. There'll be some form of forced remedy. I'm sympathetic to Freeberg's argument. I don't think that it's really a good thing in the end because I do think there are some incredible examples of Google specifically reinvesting in a way that's really added value in the world. I think the problem though is that
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The technology innovation cycle has gotten too elongated. So you're not seeing creative destruction be the natural force that keeps all of these companies in their own swim lanes. And so they are allowed to become too amorphous and too profitable. And I think it becomes an obvious target for politicians.
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You're 100% right.
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We said this when you asked about the bear case of OpenAI. If the DOJ is going to go after Google, and by the way, the interesting thing, Jason, and I mentioned this to you, is that in the same article that floated the trial balloon about this remedy of a Google breakup, the headline in the Wall Street Journal, which I think was very purposeful, said Google and Meta.
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So I think that they, if given their druthers, they being the powers that be in Washington, will probably want to take a run at both of these companies. They'll start with the one that they think they can disassemble the quickest, and then they'll go to Meta afterwards.
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My strong advice to Meta and Google is if this is going to happen, you got to go out kicking and punching and fighting and scratching. And I think the most obvious thing is what you just said, Jason, which is you are the front door to the internet.
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and there is this completely new emergent technology, and where is the same response to ChatGPT that you had to X or that you had to Snapchat or that you had to TikTok? Because if it's gonna happen, it's gonna happen, and then you might as well just go for it. Build the apps, make them kick ass, make the ChatGPT alternative, and get it to billions of people yesterday.
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That would be the most logical game theory thing to do to build up a pool of users that you will rely on when the DOJ tries to come with some consent decree or whatnot. So this is the time to build up the assets now as aggressively as possible. Yeah.
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I talked to a company, the CEO of a public consumer-facing company, and this was in the context of some 80, 90 stuff. And he said that he and two other CEOs, the three of them, you guys would all know, these are very big companies, the three of them combined are particularly large.
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And they said they've had multi-year roadmaps to try to build a reasonable set of tools in advertising, and it's been impossible. And partly why is that the tools that the big folks offer are so good that they just cannibalize and run over the entire market.
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And so what they hear from CMOs is we would love to advertise on your company, your site, but A, your tools are substandard, and B, even though your inventory is cheaper, you just don't give us the same scale and breadth that we get in these other big places. I'm not saying that that's either right or wrong,
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But through the lens of probably what the DOJ sees is when a lot of these folks write letters to them talking about what they're going through, this is what they're saying. And I suspect that if you could actually have a more fragmented market in some of these key markets, it's going to be a little bit easier for these smaller companies to have a business. Now, you could say, well, tough luck.
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You tried and you couldn't build it. I get that argument. And I think that at some point that is legitimate. But the problem is, if you're public and you're trying to make your company profitable, what do your engineers want to work on? They want to work on consumer-facing forward features. And so what always falls off the list? It's the stuff at the end. The attack, yeah.
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And so anyways, it's this recursive negative loop that a lot of these other companies are in, in the shadow of these big companies that I think is going to cause the DOJ to try to do something.
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Oh, I've seen this. I've seen it.
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Peter Thiel did this, and he gave back quite a large piece of his fund a couple of years ago, and then CRV just did it. I want to make sure I get the citation right. I think it was Thomas Lafont at CO2 who said this. It was really powerful. It made a huge impression on me, which is that the NASDAQ creates about $800 billion of enterprise value a year.
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And he brought that up in the context of private markets have to exceed that in order for it to be a real viable alternative to just owning public indices. And so if you factor in illiquidity risk and the duration, you have to probably generate, I don't know, a trillion, $1.2 trillion of enterprise value in private tech every year. That just seems like it's really hard to do.
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Where is all of that value getting created? So I think that venture needs to go through a phase where it re-rationalizes. This is sort of what I said at David's LP day, which is I think that LPs have made a couple of very big mistakes. And I think the biggest mistake that they've made is by smearing too much money across too many general partners.
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And I think if you had to redo it, A, it's probably a lot less money in total. But B, and the example I gave there was instead of giving $50 million to Kraft and $10 million to somebody else, you're better off giving $60 million to Kraft and not even having that other GP. Because that GP makes everybody's life complicated.
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They overpay, they mispay, they're probably not supposed to be a GP in the first place, and so they force returns down. And then when you contrast that again to a public market that is systematically creating $800 billion of enterprise value a year, this is an incredibly tough game and it's getting much, much harder.
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So I think that if you just take a step back, these are the right things to do because you're much better off having a smaller pool of capital that you can concentrate into the things that matter. You're probably better off having smaller teams versus bigger teams.
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And you're probably better off trying to forge LP relationships where they're not doing 50 fund investments because it just makes the entire industry lag public liquid alternatives. And I think that that's just not good.
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Wow. We have all in.com. How much did we spend on this? This is great.
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I mean, Jimmy's Superfly Snooker. Snooker. Who are you, Andre the Giant?
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I also love the Road Warriors. Ultimate Warrior I loved. I was a huge wrestling fan. That was the one thing that my dad and I bonded over. We would watch wrestling every Saturday. Sax, did you ever watch the specials on Saturday night? Oh, yeah.
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Hold on a second.
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He was anti-Wolk before anti-Wolk became a thing.
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This is crazy. You guys are into wrestling. I love wrestling. I'd say Flair was number two for me.
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Did you only like the WWF at the time or did you like the NWA as well?
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Did you guys like Mouth of the South?
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What do you think the odds are that TikTok is hacked to allow you to passively listen even when the app is not being used?
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Did those same people audit WhatsApp? And then it turned out that it was passively listen. Yeah, that's what's that passively listen. That's one of the it's one of the most well known breaches. Well, maybe they do.
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We'll have to prepare for a brave new world in the following way. There was an article, I think it was in the Wall Street Journal, that said that Russia and Iran were paying low-level street criminals to create chaos. Okay, and I read that article and I thought, okay, well, what does this mean if you actually extrapolate this, which is that the hot wars are very complicated, not worth doing.
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These disruptive fissures are the better way to sow chaos. And it occurred to me then that tying this back to something that we saw before, it does make sense for a lot of folks to sponsor a lot of long tail content that say a lot of different things. I think that that just is pretty obvious.
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And so I think that if you put these two ideas together, it stands to reason that a lot of people will be paying influencers a lot of money to create all kinds of content that is specific to a perspective that they have. And then on top of that, if you can algorithmically amplify one over the other, You're going to have issues. Is it the biggest issue in the world? Probably not.
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Okay. Chamath, you have thoughts? I think that Donald Trump has basically stuck to his strategy, which is he is a generational retail politician. I just heard parts of what he did with Andrew Schultz, another great sort of podcast. I think David's right that the editing and the massaging of the Kamala Harris talking points
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are galvanizing the people that have already decided and turning off the people that have already decided to vote for Trump. And she's losing the folks in the middle. And so this is what's causing her to have to be out there. And she's going to have to deliver a very crisp message.
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And I think that right now, it's been a little bit lacking, which is why you're seeing the polls, at least the Electoral College, which is really what matters at this point, turn Trump So she's going to have a bit of an uphill fight between here and November.
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The other thing I'll say is that if you've seen what's happening in the appellate court, it's not clear whether the Trump case is going to get overturned before the election. But if that does, that could be very meaningful momentum for him.
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And then I think the third thing is that we should now buckle in because if the last two elections are any guide, there are going to be a bunch of spanners in the works between now and November. Wait, what did you say?
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Spanners in the works. Yeah.
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Does that mean that we're mean reverting? Meaning if we improve the quality of the fuel source that are used in shipping, doesn't that then mean that we're reverting back to what would have happened in the absence of these dirty fuel sources?
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Is that true or not?
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We had an artificial cooling and now we take, but that's counter to the narrative of what we all think is happening.
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Sorry, free work, can you just anchor this? Like, was it that it was supposed to be a category five, and now it's a category three when it hit land?
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We should not dismiss it because my understanding was Helen was cat four when it like hit North Carolina. But I read yesterday that- What happened with Helen was it was cat four- That Milton is cat three when it hit Tampa or something. Is that not right? Yeah.
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Wow, we have all the way back to episode one. This is incredible.
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Yeah, this is great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Let's get back to brass tacks.
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You should explain the loop here, which is you go and get a mortgage. The bank says you need to get insurance if I'm going to lend you the money to buy the home. So then a bunch of insurers need to decide that they're willing to underwrite that area. And then when they give you that insurance, they then want to lay that risk off and go to reinsure. Is that the cycle?
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In conversation with Sam Altman
Those are not... Like these models are trained... and built differently than the language models. I mean, to some, obviously there's a lot that's similar, but there's a lot, there's kind of a ground up architecture to a lot of these models that are being applied to these specific problem sets, these specific applications like chemistry interaction modeling, for example.
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Yeah, that's the important question I wanted to kind of talk about today was this idea of networks of models. People talk a lot about agents as if there's kind of this linear set of call functions that happen. But one of the things that arises...
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in biology is networks of systems that have cross interactions that the aggregation of the system, the aggregation of the network produces an output rather than one thing calling another, that thing calling another.
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Do we see like an emergence in this architecture of either specialized models or network models that work together to address bigger problem sets, use reasoning, there's computational models that do things like chemistry or arithmetic, and there's other models that do, rather than one model to rule them all that's purely generalized?
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There's a bunch of training data, images of proteins, and then sequence data, and they build a model, predictive model, and they have a set of processes and steps for doing that. Do you envision that there's this artificial general intelligence or this great reasoning model that then figures out how to build that sub model that figures out how to solve that problem by acquiring the necessary data
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I guess the real question is, are all these startups going to die? Because so many startups are working in that modality, which is go get special data and then train a new model on that special data from the ground up. And then it only does that one sort of thing. And it works really well at that one thing. And it works better than anything else at that one.
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And now you're getting a. So these models that are predicting protein structure, like let's say, right, this is the whole basis. And now other molecules at AlphaFold3, Can they... Yeah, I mean, is it basically a world where the best generalized model goes in and gets that training data and then figures out on its own? And maybe you could use an example for us.
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Can you tell us about Sora, your video model that generates amazing moving images, moving video? And what's different about the architecture there, whatever you're willing to share, on how that is different?
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In conversation with Sam Altman
It's like a faster unlock. I think so.
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Right. So just as an example, for you guys to build a good video model, you built it from scratch using, I'm assuming, some different architecture and different data. But in the future, the generalized reasoning system, the AGI, whatever system, theoretically could render that by figuring out how to do it.
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Does that mean that there's not going to be long training cycles and it's continuously retraining or training submodels, Sam? And maybe you could just speak to us about what might change architecturally going forward with respect to large models.
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In conversation with Sam Altman
Sam, let me just challenge that. What's the difference in the example you're giving of the model learning about things like song structure, tempo, melody, harmony relationships, discovering all the underlying structure that makes music successful, and then building new music using training data?
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and what a human does, that listens to lots of music, learns about, and their brain is processing and building all those same sort of predictive models or those same sort of discoveries or understandings. What's the difference here? And why are you making the case that perhaps artists should be uniquely paid. This is not a sampling situation.
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The AI is not outputting and it's not storing in the model the actual original song. It's learning structure.
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Where the prompt leverages some artist.
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Would you be comfortable asking, or would you be comfortable letting the model train itself, a music model being trained on the whole corpus of music that humans have created without royalties being paid to the artists that that music is being fed in? And then you're not allowed to ask, you know, artist specific prompts.
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In conversation with Sam Altman
You could just say, hey, play me a really cool pop song that's fairly modern about heartbreak, you know, with a female voice, you know?
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In conversation with Sam Altman
And comment on California's new proposed regulations as well if you're up for it.
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In conversation with Sam Altman
The challenge, Sam, is that we have statute that is meant to protect people, protect society at large. What we're creating, however, is statute that gives the government rights to go in and audit code, to audit business trade secrets. We've never seen that to this degree before. Basically, the California legislation that's proposed and some of the federal legislation that's been proposed
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In conversation with Sam Altman
basically requires the government to audit a model, to audit software, to audit and review the parameters and the weightings of the model. And then you need their check mark in order to deploy it for commercial or public use. And for me, it just feels like
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We're trying to rein in the government agencies for fear and because folks have a hard time understanding this and are scared about the implications of it, they want to control it. And the only way to control it is to say, give me a right to audit before you can release it.
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I mean, the way that the stuff is written, you read it, you're like going to pull your hair out because as you know better than anyone, in 12 months, none of this stuff is going to make sense anyway.
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By the way, especially if the models are always being retrained all the time, if they become more dynamic.
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In conversation with Sam Altman
That's reviewing the output of the model, not reviewing the insides of the model.
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In conversation with Sam Altman
How are we going to get that to happen, Sam? And I'm not just speaking for OpenAI, I speak for the industry, for humanity, because I am concerned that we draw ourselves into almost like a dark ages type of era by restricting the growth of these incredible technologies that humanity can prosper from so significantly. How do we change the sentiment and get that to happen?
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In conversation with Sam Altman
Because this is all moving so quickly at the government levels. And folks seem to be getting it wrong. And I'm personally concerned.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
But- Well, Mark, what did you learn about that? Yeah, why'd you start it? Maybe just explain UBI and why you started it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you guys. Queen of Kinwa.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And maybe you can share a little bit about if you're willing to, the motivation behind the action, anything you can.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
It's like, what else is he doing on the side to make money?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
You haven't seen Samad play in the last 18 months. It's a lot different.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Yeah, I mean, that's a longer conversation because there is a lot of talk about language models eventually evolving to be so generalizable that they can resolve problems pretty much like all intelligent function. And so the language model is the foundational model that yields AGI. But I think there's a lot of people that are different schools of thought on this. And how much...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
After the break, I think we should talk about AlphaFold 3. It was just announced today. Yeah, let's do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
You've said each week, every week that I get to say some names. I did not. I appreciate your interest in the all-in summits lineup, but we do not yet have...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
It made me sad. It did not make me want to buy an iPad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
It didn't feel good. I don't know. It just didn't seem like a good ad. I don't know why they did that. I don't get it. I don't know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
If you think back on... Apple's product lineup over the years where they've really created value is on how unique the products are. They almost create new categories. Sure, there may have been a, quote, tablet computer prior to the iPad, but the iPad really defined the tablet computer era. Sure, there was a smartphone or two before the iPhone came along, but it really defined the smartphone era.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And sure, there was a computer before the Apple II, and then it came along and it defined the personal computer. In all these cases, I think Apple strives to define the category. So it's very hard to define a television, if you think about it, or a gaming console in a way that you take a step up and you say, this is the new thing, this is the new platform.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
So I don't know, that's the lens I would look at if I'm Apple in terms of like, can I redefine a car? Can I make, you know, we're all trying to fit them into an existing product bucket, but I think what they've always been so good at is identifying consumer needs and then creating an entirely new way of addressing that need in a real step change function.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
From like the iPod, it was so different from any MP3 player ever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure there's much more to add on the HubSpot acquisition rumors. They are still just rumors. And I think we covered the topic a couple of weeks ago. But I will say that AlphaFold3 that was just announced today and demonstrated by Google is a real, I would say, breathtaking moment for biology, for bioengineering, for human health, for medicine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And maybe I'll just take 30 seconds to kind of explain it. You remember when they introduced AlphaFold 2, we talked about DNA codes for proteins. So every three letters of DNA codes for an amino acid. So a string of DNA codes for a string of amino acids, and that's called a gene that produces a protein. And that protein is basically a long, like think about beads.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
There's 20 different types of beads, 20 different amino acids that can be strung together. And what happens is that necklace, that bead necklace basically collapses on itself. And all those little beads stick together with each other in some complicated way that we can't deterministically model. And that creates a three-dimensional structure, which is called a protein, that molecule.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And that molecule does something interesting. It can break apart other molecules. It can bind molecules. It can move molecules around. So it's basically the machinery of chemistry, of biochemistry. And so proteins are what is encoded in our DNA. And then the proteins do all the work of making living organisms.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
So Google's AlphaFold project took three-dimensional images of proteins and the DNA sequence that codes for those proteins, and then they built a predictive model that predicted the three-dimensional structure of a protein from the DNA that codes for it. And that was a huge breakthrough years ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
What they just announced with AlphaFold 3 today is that they're now including all small molecules, so all the other little molecules that go into chemistry and biology that drive the function of everything we see around us, And the way that all those molecules actually bind and fit together is part of the predictive model. Why is that important?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Well, let's say that you're designing a new drug, and it's a protein-based drug, which biologic drugs, which most drugs are today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
You could find a biologic drug that binds to a cancer cell, and then you'll spend 10 years going to clinical trials, and billions of dollars later, you find out that that protein accidentally binds to other stuff and hurts other stuff in the body, and that's an off-target effect or a side effect, and that drug is pulled from the clinical trials, and it never goes to market.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Most drugs go through that process. They are actually tested in animals and then in humans. And we find all these side effects that arise from those drugs because we don't know how those drugs are gonna bind or interact with other things in our biochemistry. And we only discovered after we put it in. But now we can actually model that with software.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
We can take that drug, we can create a three-dimensional representation of it using the software, and we can model how that drug might interact with all the other cells, all the other proteins, all the other small molecules in the body to find all the off-target effects that may arise and decide whether or not that presents a good drug candidate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
That is one example of how this capability can be used. And there are many, many others, including creating new proteins that could be used to bind molecules or stick molecules together or new proteins that could be designed to rip molecules apart.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
We can now predict the function of three-dimensional molecules using this capability, which opens up all of the software-based design of chemistry, of biology, of drugs. And it really is an incredible breakthrough moment. The interesting thing that happened though is Google Alphabet has a subsidiary called Isomorphic Labs. It is a drug development subsidiary of Alphabet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And they've basically kept all the IP for AlphaFold3 in Isomorphic. So Google is going to monetize the heck out of this capability. And what they made available was not open source code, but a web based viewer that scientists for quote, non commercial purposes can use to do some fundamental research in a web based viewer and make some experiments and try stuff out and how interactions might occur.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
But no one can use it for commercial use. Only Google's isomorphic labs can. So number one, it's an incredible demonstration of what AI outside of LLMs, which we just talked about with Sam today, And obviously, we talked about other models, but LLMs being kind of this consumer text, predictive model capability.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
But outside of that, there's this capability in things like chemistry, with these new AI models that can be trained and built to predict things like three dimensional chemical interactions, that is going to open up an entirely new era for human progress. And I think that's what's so exciting. I think the other side of this is Google is hugely advantaged.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And they just showed the world a little bit about some of these jewels that they have in the treasure chest. And they're like, look at what we got. We're going to make all these drugs. And they've got partnerships with all these pharma companies and isomorphic labs that they've talked about. And it's going to usher in a new era of drug development design for human health.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
So all in all, I'd say it's a pretty astounding day. A lot of people are going crazy over the capability that they just demonstrated. And then it begs all this really interesting question around like, you know, what's Google going to do with it and how much value is going to be created here? So anyway, I thought it was a great story. And I just rambled on for a couple of minutes, but I don't know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Sorry, let me just say one more thing. Do you guys remember we talked about Yamanaka factors and how challenging it is to basically, we can reverse aging if we can get the right proteins into cells to tune the expression of certain genes to make those cells youthful? Right now, it's a shotgun approach to trying millions of compounds and combinations of compounds to do them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
There's a lot of companies actually trying to do this right now to come up with a fountain of youth type product. We can now simulate that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
So with this system, one of the things that this AlphaFold3 can do is predict what molecules will bind and promote certain sequences of DNA, which is exactly what we try and do with the Yamanaka factor-based expression systems, and find ones that won't trigger off-target expression. So meaning we can now go through the search space and software
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
of creating a combination of molecules that theoretically could unlock this fountain of youth to de-age all the cells in the body and introduce an extraordinary kind of health benefit. And that's just, again, one example of the many things that are possible with this sort of platform. And I'm really, I gotta be honest, I'm really just sort of skimming the surface here of what this can do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
The capabilities and the impact are gonna be like... I know I say this sort of stuff a lot, but it's going to be pretty profound.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I mean, simple stuff, but so powerful. And you can filter out stuff that has off-target effects. So, so much of drug discovery and all the side effects stuff can start to be solved for in silico.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And you could think about running extraordinarily large, use a model like this, run extraordinarily large simulations in a search space of chemistry to find stuff that does things in the body that can unlock all these benefits, can do all sorts of amazing things to destroy cancer, to destroy viruses, to repair cells, to de-age cells.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
I mean, this alone, I feel like this is where I, I've said this before. I think Google's got this like portfolio of like quiet. Yeah. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
And the fact, and I think the fact that they didn't open source everything in this says a lot about their intentions. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Jason, I feel like if you didn't find your way to Silicon Valley, you could be like a Vegas lounge comedy guy. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Somebody said I should do like those 1950s, those 1950s talk shows where the guys would do like the, the stage show. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
We have five different kinds of xanthan gum you can choose from, right, Jamal?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, Wes. Nice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Otherwise, a hard shift right, including in some categories. Everybody went right. Yes. So the biggest shift right was in Hispanic and Asian populations. Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that there are three ways to kind of identify, and tell me if you guys think these are the wrong vectors. There's either the policies, the candidate, and the methods of the campaign. All of it, all three. Right, that's how I kind of break down what happened in this election cycle. There's a big difference between the candidates as people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Andrea Botez will be there doing the opening DJ set, and her sister Alex will be joining us as well. Andrea and Alex will also be playing the Botez sisters. We're going to have a chess tournament during the party, which will be super fun. Sax, you can get in on that. Challenge Alex Botez or David Sax to chess. Gary Richards, also known as Destructo.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Some people cannot see past the fact that Kamala did not get any primary vote. Some people cannot see past The behavior of Donald Trump on Twitter and when he talks to people and how he has talked to people and perceived to be a bully and the felony conviction. And some people cannot get past other factors of those two candidates. And then some people can get past it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Sacks, do you think about how important the policy versus the individual is? versus the way they ran the campaign, the media, and how they reached people as kind of three vectors? And if so, how would you kind of rank those three in importance? And what changed people's votes and got them to vote differently than they did in the last election?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah, and we will have the board on screen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I also blundered my queen and still won on time, which I will always hold dear in my heart.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
She would have crushed all of us. 4v1, tough. But it's going to be a great show. Other guests to be announced in the future. VIP is almost sold out. We're doing like a special dinner after the live show. And then the party is going to be awesome. Casino games, food, drinks, DJs. This is just to have fun, guys. This is not meant to be. kind of like the summit type show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So, Sax, is this the nature of democracy? That over time, when you have a two-party system and one party veers too far to the left or one party veers too far to the right, people jump ship to the other party and ultimately they pull the policies of the party that they left back to the middle. And that's the way democracy is supposed to work and has worked historically.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So is this the way it's supposed to go? And do we project that four years from now, the Democrats will need to be and need to adjust to the center and we'll see less of this extremism because of the way the voting turned out this election cycle?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
If they don't attack, right? So that's the key question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We're going to just have a great time. So we hope everyone will join us. And if you've got startups that want to join, please come on by, buy some tickets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nick, pull up the link I just sent. So let me just underscore an important aspect for you guys on this, which is the amount that the Democrats spent in this campaign. And obviously they saw a significant negative return. They lost across the board, Senate majority, House majority, governorships, the White House, but they spent more.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Here you can see the difference between the Harris campaign and the Trump campaign spending. Harris campaign spent nearly $900 million. The Trump campaign, 350 million. If you look at the super PACs, the super PACs spent $1.4 billion on the Dem side, roughly, $400 million, $450 million on the Republican side.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And if you scroll down, in some of these key Senate races, the Dems far outspent the Republicans and still lost. The Ohio Senate race, Sherrod Brown, $58 million of spending. Bernie Moreno, $21 million, and Bernie Moreno had a resounding victory. John Tester, $84 million of spending. Tim Sheehy, $22 million. Tim Sheehy won. the election.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So across the board, the spending was greater, the return was negative.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
A million bucks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So my question again is, does this not necessitate attack to the center for the Democrats? They want to see the party survive. And if they're going to continue to lose like this, they will not continue to maintain the same policy agenda that got them into this position in the first place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
J. Cal, do you think that the Democratic Party will need to attack to the center and that they're going to start to adjust because of this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The odds are we're going to lose money on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Not enough. Not enough. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Well, unfortunately, someone that comes on the show earns that. Correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Saxon, you just won the White House. I think you're fine, bro.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Well, it's not a theater. So the tickets are like 500 bucks, I think. I love you being the moderator and taking all the arrows. This is great. So you're never moderating again? Well, it's the PFA. Remember where they used to have the Exploratorium? That building where they built for the World's Fair or whatever? So it's in there and it's all empty. So we're kind of taking that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Just so you know, the Y axis starts at 50 million. So don't be, you know, like a little too crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
For the presidential campaign.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I'm sorry, that excludes the super PACs, which had additional funding that were going towards supporting the nominee. Fair enough.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We're building a stage inside. We're going to build all the set and everything. Yeah, it should be fun. I won't be there, but it sounds great. If you could take some pictures, Sachs would love to see what it looks like. Unless it's Mar-a-Lago, Sachs will not show up. I want to just congratulate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I just want to go around the horn real quick and ask each of you guys once again, I'm going to ask you one more question after this. What mattered most? Was it the policy sacks as you're proclaiming is what a lot of people voted on? Was it the issues with the candidate, the individual? Or was it the media or the campaign tactics?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So those three, what mattered most do you think in terms of moving votes? What moved the most votes?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
It's Trump. J. Cal, your turn. The policies, the individual, or the campaign tactics?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
It's interesting for you to say that as a Dem, right? Because I think that may have chased a lot of people. I'm a moderate. I'm not a Dem, by the way. I voted Republican one-third of the time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I want to congratulate someone really special, without whom Trump would likely not have been elected president. So your bravery, your ingenuity, your creativity, you led the way and you brought millions of people the direct news they couldn't get anywhere else. Jason, congrats. Yes, thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But two thirds, two thirds, you voted them. So you were open to that. And I'm a left leaning moderate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And Chamath, what is your read on what mattered most? Do you have one of those three? How would you weight?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Okay, I'll wear my McLaughlin hat and say Chamath, right answer. Now, my next question back to you, Chamath, is I've had a lot of conversations in the last few days with good friends, with people I'm close with, with family and so on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think policy matters, but here's the stumbling block. If you talk to anyone that did not vote for Trump and voted for Kamala Harris, that is, you know, kind of reasonable people or what, you know, I don't want to kind of, classify people, but people that you would normally have decent long form conversations with. And you start talking about specific policy issues with them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
By putting the all in pod, you've inadvertently architected a system that's helped return Trump to the White House. And for that, many people are praising you today. Congrats, Jason. How does it feel to have finally accomplished your dream?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The conversation keeps coming back to Trump the person, in my experience. People can't see past a person who is a, quote, convicted felon, as they claim, who is taking away women's rights, who is a bully, who is mean. A lot of this is influenced by his past behavior and things he said and the way he's said things and done things on Twitter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We can proclaim that there was a lot of misrepresentation about Trump in the legacy media, but there were a lot of tweets that Trump put out that were off-putting to a lot of people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So I want you, Chamath, to speak to the many individuals out there who are good people, who feel disenfranchised, who are not like the funny people you can make fun of on libs of TikTok or what have you, but just everyday normal people that said, I really don't trust the guy. I really don't believe that this is a good person. And I think that the policies make more sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I agree with a lot of the policy issues, but frankly, the guy doesn't seem like the right guy for me. How do you kind of break through? Is that possible? And can you speak to that person to help them kind of see past the individual to the policies and have trust and faith that this individual can actually shepherd this nation forward?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Absolutely. Yeah. Big shout out to Jake.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I am avid to your internal MSM debating partner.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Now, J. Cal, let me ask you, the flip side of the coin, you have expressed publicly recently, even on a podcast yesterday, with Sachs in vigorous debate on the show many times, reservations about Trump and the character of Trump. Yeah. How do you feel, you obviously align with the policies that he's highlighted and indicated. You've said so.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Do you see past the person or do you still have a strong degree of reservation about the individual? And do you see that playing out in your cohort, friends, family, what have you, that there's strong reservation because of the character?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Okay, so let's kick it off. Sax, you were at Mar-a-Lago on election night. I thought it'd just be great if you could tell us a little bit about what the scene was like. How was it? And when did you guys kind of know that Trump had kind of the victory in the bag? Was it pre the polls coming in because you had pollster data early?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Vance are by his side. So I'm going to move on to the rest of the election, the other races. So the presidency we've talked about, let's talk about the House and the Senate, Sachs. In the House, there's 37 races that have yet to be called, but it looks like the Republicans need about 12 more to be called to have a majority. It seems very likely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I mean, according to PolyMarket, it's 99% that the Republicans will have the majority in the House. The Republicans have control of the Senate, and Trump is in the White House. What are the top policy items that the Republicans will pursue with this degree of legislative and executive control? What's number one, two, three on the list? What's top priority?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And how are they kind of getting together to figure out what and how to execute those items in the weeks and months after January 20th?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Or, you know, tell us a little bit about the experience there and when it all kind of came together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
There's a necessity for legislative action to get all the cuts in federal spending that they're looking to cut. Is that right, Zach?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I would have started with three then. I mean, that's just my tactic, but whatever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And the federal government is such a large sprawling. It is the largest organization on earth, except for maybe the CCP. And in that sense, you really have to have leverage in leadership to be able to realize that degree of action at that scale. So the cabinet positions matter a lot to realize that agenda. Is that fair to say, Chamath?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And maybe we can talk a little bit about who are the folks in the orbit of Donald Trump and the transition team that are being considered for different cabinet posts. And, you know, as an advisor, or as a, let's call you a theoretical advisor to the transition team, what are the kind of key posts that matter to you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
How would you kind of advise them who to look for that could really realize the outcome that the mandate is dictating?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
For what role? What would you put her in?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Hey, everybody. Welcome back to my J. Cal impression. God, your energy is so dorky. Welcome, welcome. I'm Tim Waltz. I'm Tim Waltz of the All In Pod. Welcome, welcome, welcome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
That's a cabinet position, right? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Jerome Powell this morning said he would not step aside if asked to resign by Donald Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I just want to go line item by line item in one afternoon and I'm out of there. I'm just going to go in...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah. And then I want to ask you one more question, Chamath. Go ahead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Did he feel confident like he had it in the bag?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And what were you guys doing? Just hanging out, having cocktails, having dinner? Just everyone was meandering, chilling? What's the scene like at Mar-a-Lago?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Okay, Friedberg, over to you. So let's talk about the cabinet positions. Chamath, a guy like RFK Jr. has never held an executive position before. You and others on this panel, Sachs, JCal, myself, we've all kind of managed large groups of people. We've all been in positions of being a CEO of a business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
You talk a lot about bringing in the outsiders and the Trump campaign talks a lot about bringing these outsider sacks, begrudgingly highlights the swamp creatures emerging to ask for those slots in those positions because they are lifelong politicians and bureaucrats. How do we... have trust and faith?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Or do you think that that's the whole point is that you have folks that don't have the experience to run these organizations that don't have the insights on who actually works there on how they operate, and them coming in is going to provide enough of a fresh perspective and things up enough that that's exactly the point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And like talk a little bit about bringing in outsiders, but outsiders that can be effective in transforming these government agencies, not just blowing them up, or is the goal to blow them up?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So just to be clear, there's a law in the United States called the Freedom of Information Act. The FOIA is kind of a common term.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And it gives the power and authority to individual citizens and third party agencies to have a check and balance on the federal government that they can go in, they can request actual data, actual files, and it is all necessarily available to the public at any time, except for classified information.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So through the FOIA process, third-party lawyers and nonprofits have made requests to federal agencies to get access to this sort of information. And I've done it. I don't know if you guys have ever used FOIA powers for information from the federal government. I had to do FOIA requests 10 years ago to get weather data or 15 years ago for my startup climate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
It was the only way we were able to get access to a bunch of weather data was through FOIA requests. And then we were able to use that data in our services because it is public data. The taxpayers pay for it. So we had a right to it. Similarly, you can make FOIA requests of emails and interagency communications and so on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But, Sachs, I think it seems, and J. Cal, to your point about the FOIA lady, there may, over time, have been some degree of corruption of the FOIA process in all of these agencies, which has made it more difficult for individuals and third parties to have the appropriate checks and balances on the data in these agencies because of the way they've kind of obfuscated access, slowed down the process.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Sometimes it takes months for them to respond to you, and it's become quite difficult. So the FOIA, the intention of the Freedom of Information Act may have been hindered by the bureaucracy. This will not be through FOIA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Well, a lot to come in the weeks ahead. I'm sure we will do more updates as the cabinet positions or the nominees get announced.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I have very deep trepidation about RFK having oversight. I think the authority might be limited with respect to... the legislative authority that's vested by the Congress, which is the one piece. Look, I mean, as you guys know, there's a lot that RFK brings up that I very, that resonates with me. I'm not a black and white guy. So there are things that he says that make a lot of sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
There are things I've pointed out, particularly around microplastics in the environment, particularly around chemistry that we use in our food and our systems of food and production. And I believe very strongly that we have real issues that have you know, compounding effects on our health. So let me not be too flippant about that. I am not a all vaccines are always good all the time person.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that every one of them needs to be studied on the merits and the risks. I think fluoride is an interesting conversation to have. What are the merits? What are the risks? And why is it a federal, why is there a federal authority over fluoride in water? Which, by the way, there isn't. It's all local municipalities get to decide.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I will say that there are a number of things that RFK have said that that caused me a lot of trouble that I'm very troubled by. Because I think that he has said things that are factually wrong. And I want him to be open to debate and open to review of objective truth. And that's it. And that's it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Generally, I think all these systems should be challenged, 100%. Okay, so net-net, you want to send him in.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
He's been on this show twice. I'm not classifying him otherwise. I'm not classifying him otherwise.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
One of the most important aspects of science, not the recently legacy media or jokingly definition of quote-unquote science, but science is meant to be a process of skepticism, interrogation, and the search for objective truth, which means that you should be constantly questioning whether you are right or wrong. And I do think that that is a necessary part of the process of science.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Science is not meant to be a dictatorial regime. And so I think that resetting the framework for how we operate some of the agencies and authorities that are supposed to be rooted in science to have the necessary process of skepticism, review and transparency into that, I think will reassert faith and reassert trust by the public in how these agencies are operating. And I hope that that happens.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I really do, because I do think that there are very good people in all these agencies who do very good work, and there's a lot of very important advances that have come out of the United States of America and have gone through processes through the federal government that have actually done really great things for Americans and for humanity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I don't want us to dismiss things as being whimsical bureaucracies that don't have any rooting in science, but I do think that it's important to have this degree of skepticism and process and have transparency. That's all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So the final tally, it looks like, is going to be 312 electoral college votes for President Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris's 226. Just for context, in 2016, Trump won with 304 electoral votes and Biden won in 2020 with 306. So it's a pretty sweeping victory. He won all the supposed swing states this year fairly resoundingly. There's no real super close calls.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And a big important moment for Trump for this movement, this return to the fundamentals of what was vested in the constitution is the Chevron Doctrine case at the Supreme Court earlier this year. It reversed the authority for agencies to create their own rules and regulations that they can then enforce on private enterprise. And if that case carries through and is allowed to be used to support
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
the efforts to deregulate or to de-agency, what you call kind of the bureaucracy, I think it enables a lot of the change that folks are looking for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Why should, for example, some commission be sprung out of some assembly being created, and then that commission gets to create their own rules and their own regulations that effectively are law that prevent private citizens and enterprises from being able to operate and make decisions. And I think that was a very important moment
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
for this movement was the Supreme Court case on the Chevron Doctrine earlier this year. I don't know if you agree with me on this, Seth, but it seems like it's going to be... No, I totally agree.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
You can't have individual commissions pass laws. That's that's the whole point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I'd just like to do a quick survey of some of the local and state elections and get some reactions. I was going to try and talk a little bit about what's going on in San Francisco and California. I'll just hit on it. Our friend, my friend Daniel Lurie, it looks like he's going to be the mayor of San Francisco, beating out the incumbent mayor, London Breed. Daniel...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
ran on a moderate platform and has an intention of fixing a lot of the operations and inefficiencies in the San Francisco government, which has seen a ballooning in budget. San Francisco has the highest budget per capita of any city in the United States, I think 50% higher than New York, with a lower functioning economy kind of set of municipal services.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
There's some close calls, but pretty resounding victory. Chamath, what happened?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And there's a lot of opportunity for improvement there. This is the first time, really important stat, first time an outsider has been elected mayor in San Francisco since 1911. Every mayor elected since 1911 in San Francisco was an existing government employee or government civil servant.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So just like what we saw in the federal elections, we are seeing an outsider being placed in the mayoral office in San Francisco.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Your city has become a dangerous, dirty dumpster fire for bad ideas from libs. I hope you do the obvious and be on the side of cops, justice, clean streets, and meritocracy. That's your message to the incoming mayor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah, a couple of them got booted. Dean Preston got booted. Dopey Dean and Aaron Pesky.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So the board of supervisors has also shifted moderate. The mayor is now going to be a moderate outsider. And there's a real opportunity to rebuild and reform San Francisco. It's a place that I've called home for 25 years. It's a place where I operate my business. It's a good start. and it feels like a lot of the citizens of what has historically been... I refuse to go to San Francisco.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
You don't have to. I'll Zoom. Hold on. I'll Zoom.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I know a great campaign manager press secretary for him. Hype man. I will say, I'll make a point on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Well, I will say one more point about, I will call it balance in the force. When a party is captured and moves too far in one direction, people leave the party and they vote for the other party. And then in order to attract people back to the party, they tack to the center.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
My big prediction over the next few years is you will see a more centrist Democratic Party as they try and- I'll take the other side. And they try and attract their votes back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So one more topic before we wrap, guys.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Guys, before we wrap, there's one other topic that came up in every conversation I had with everyone about Trump that was a female, which was abortion. And it was, and look, I don't want to rehash again that it was misrepresented what Trump's position is, but abortion has become a very sensitive topic, a woman's right to do what she wants to do with her body when she wants to do it,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
is something that most women feel they are very deeply endowed with, and that should be an unalienable right, particularly in the United States of America, and that even sending this back to states and states voting on it creates a significant emotional response that drives folks to one party or the other. In Florida, voters rejected an abortion extension to 24 weeks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Florida previously had a 15-week abortion ban, but the current six-week ban took effect in May. So the amendment that was being proposed on the ballot this week would have codified abortion procedures up to 24 weeks in the state constitution, but it needed 60% of the votes to pass. but it only got 57%. So it looks like a loss for pro-choice advocates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Sachs, what is going to happen now that these abortion laws are being voted on, these amendments to state constitutions are being voted on? How is this going to reshape American politics? And how are the parties going to shift in the years ahead, given how important and how sensitive this topic has become after the decision of the Supreme Court recently?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So Maryland, Missouri... I think it's gone. Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, Colorado, Arizona, all... voted to codify the right to abortion and remove abortion bans. On the other hand, Nebraska voted for a ban on abortions after the first trimester, and South Dakota voted against a right to abortion. So South Dakota prohibits all abortions except when necessary to save the woman's life.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
J. Cal, you've said it's one of the most important issues of the day several times in the past. You said women were going to vote in droves for Kamala because of the perception that Trump was trying to pass a federal abortion ban.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Is this going to stop being an issue and it's now codified in state law and- Or is this going to continue to be a lynchpin in America?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Guys, this has been a fantastic follow-up to this week's election. I know some people are bitterly disappointed, frustrated, angry, and sad about the future of America, and others are deeply optimistic and excited. And I think at the end of the day, it's all going to be okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I really do hope that everyone can kind of have constructive conversations about the future we'd all like to build together. Like we do here. And I really appreciate the friendship with you guys. I want to say congratulations to Sachs and Chamath for putting yourselves out there as early as you did in campaigning and promoting Donald Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think you guys had a very influential role in moving people. For the effort you made and the outcome, congratulations.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Hold them accountable, boys.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Well, look, if he wants to invite me tomorrow to have a veggie burger and fries, I'm there. I will hang out with him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Oh, yeah, I forgot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The free market Republicans have decided it's time to go in and ban the market for fake meat because, my God, we can't introduce fake meat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Jason, do you think that that message got across more clearly in this election than ever before, as some have claimed, because of the power of alternative media for reaching the audience, rather than having everything pushed through reporters and traditional legacy media? In this case, many of the candidates, particularly on the Republican side,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Okay, so today we are gonna cover the biggest- Anything in the news? Yeah, right. We'll start out with a little housekeeping and then we'll get into it. So like and subscribe on YouTube, youtube.com slash at all in. We're trying to hit a million subscribers. Don't forget the holiday party, allin.com slash events. It is Saturday, December 7th in SF.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
went direct to the audience through long form podcasts like ours, but also Joe Rogan, and Lex and many others. And did that move the needle for a lot of people in a way that won this? Or was it the policies and the difference alone?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We have a couple of great announcements for the holiday party. which I think we are spending way too much money on. Steve Aoki will be DJing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Freeberg, your thoughts on this? I don't know what regulatory... capture NVIDIA? Are you talking about regulatory capture of NVIDIA?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And it just seems pretty sure one of the silly aspects is they just passed this law in California, Newsom warns against perils. of over-regulating AI. Oh, good. Governor Newsom warned on Wednesday against stifling the burgeoning AI sector. I mean, Newsom is well-informed by the tech community. Sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And he's also an intelligent person, so I don't think he'd kind of fall quickly in line on this one. But the way that the statutes were written is there's a definition on the size of a model which in and of itself is very quickly changing. As we know, we've seen recently significant reductions in model size that actually improve performance overall of the model for specific applications.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And it's very likely we end up seeing a lot of more smaller targeted models being used in specific applications instead of one massive general purpose model being used, or networks of smaller models, which is what really where I think the industry is going. And if that's where things go, then the statute doesn't even matter. It makes no sense anymore.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And that shows you, I think, how quickly things are changing. They go and they get, quote, experts' opinions. In a couple of months, those experts come back. They're like, here is the size of a model that you need to be regulating. And then the legislators run and they write the code. They pass the statute. And all of a sudden, it doesn't even make sense anymore.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So yes, I don't think we really know where this technology is all falling out at this point. And I think it's very difficult to have the government kind of reach in too quickly to try and identify what they should and shouldn't be allowing to happen from a free market perspective.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Nick, can you pull up the image? I'm going to talk about the stupidity of buying the stock of this company at this valuation. This is a company. And then I think we can talk about whether that's even relevant, which I think indication is it's not. GameStop finished the year 2023 fiscal year with Sales of 5.3 billion down from 5.9 billion the year before. So sales declined by 12% in the year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $65 million. And they have about 1.2 billion in cash. Currently, as of today, the market cap is about $13.5 billion. So that makes it about a $12.5 billion enterprise value. 12 and a half billion divided by 65 million of EBITDA means that this stock is currently trading at about 192 times EBITDA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
A business that is profitable and you can say that the profits are stable and predictable and is likely not gonna grow very much will typically trade for seven to 12 times EBITDA. And the stock is trading at 192 times EBITDA and the revenue is declining 12% a year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So I'll just point out, like, I don't think that there's anything about the actual performance of the underlying business and the security that you are buying or selling when you are making a decision about whether or not to buy or sell the security. And I think that that's the real question. It does that even matter? Clearly, it doesn't. Let people have fun. Let them go to Vegas.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Let them play in the roulette table. They know what they're getting into. The disclosures are all there. All the SEC filings are there. All the financials of this business are there. What you're actually buying is publicly viewable. You can look at it. You can make an investment decision as an individual investor and trader.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And you want to blow your money trying to see when the social trends are going to shift one way or another. Let it be your decision.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
There's no law, there's no law that defines why you should or should not buy a security with respect to the diligence you have individually done to determine whether the underlying business is worth the price you're paying. The law says that the businesses
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
that are listing their securities for public trading have an obligation to make disclosures on their financials and any other material events to the public. And they do that through the SEC filing process. That's all out there. And then what you as an individual do with it is up to you. Enough with the nanny state. Go ahead, Sachs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
By the way, to not invest through advice. The stock is up 40% today. And then there's these reports that came out yesterday on a bunch of very big hedge funds that put very big short positions yesterday on the stock. And it's up 40% today. So we're all going to get margin calls. So this is where you see the same thing that happened last time where... What was that guy's name? The... The capital.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin. Melvin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Where was the government to save our day? Where was the government to protect consumers?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
That's the next cycle of the story. The next cycle of the story is where was the government?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's on you. I think the question is, should we make all sports betting legal and all online casinos legal? So if you follow this to its natural conclusion, let people do what they want. Why are all of the other gambling industries so tightly regulated? And why do we protect consumers?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Have you guys seen this guy? His name is Tim Nacky on Instagram. So what this guy did, this guy's incredible. So this guy went out and he basically bet 10 cents in online blackjack because he's legally allowed to do it where he lives. I think he's in Australia or something. Oh, yeah. That's 10 cents for every follower he has on Instagram.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So over the last couple of months, he's been racking and racking up the bets. And he ended up doing these $100,000 plus bets because he got over a million followers. He ran this thing up to over a million bucks and he quit. But now he's formed like a blackjack syndicate. So everyone wants to kind of pile in and bet with him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think that there's this really interesting phenomenon of like social betting. Everyone wants to be in a group together. He's got hundreds of thousands of people that have put money in. This is so great. And then he goes and does this online gambling. Nick, pull the video up. I just sent you. Watch how this guy, and he's so entertaining. He's awesome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
One hand a day. One hand a day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And every day his follower count goes up. So every day he bets more. And then you're following. And he ran this thing up to a million approximately. Oh, so good. I haven't seen Sax this awake during the pod. You don't get the 10 cents. He keeps it for himself. He started this just by betting his own money. And he would put 10 cents down every day for how many followers he had. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And so he started betting more and more of his own money.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So then as of a few weeks ago, or like two weeks ago, he stopped betting his own money. He took the million off the table. He called it a day and he set up a syndicate. And now people send their own money in and now he's betting the syndicate's money. I love this. And he does one hand a day and he keeps racking this thing up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Man, that would be a good losing video. It's so funny.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Can we get this guy at the All-In Summit? He plays online blackjack, right? So... There's always like a fake dealer and he has all this hilarious commentary on the fake dealer and what they look like. Sax is texting people to set up an account in a VPN right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, I think part of this is actually, there's been these rules imposed by NASDAQ and New York Stock Exchange that have tried to enforce upon the listed companies, rules and regulations that are not tied to securities. laws, including some of these aspects of diversity of your board.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I know that there have been a lot of public company board members and CEOs that have quietly tried to push back on these rules, that they're imposing social systems upon, you know, what is effectively a regulated exchange. And so there's certainly like an interest and a pushing for a competitive marketplace for exchanges.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
There was a survey done recently that showed, I got to find some of this data, but it showed the cost of going public on NASDAQ, Amex, or the New York Stock Exchange was about $7.4 million. Cost of going public through an over-the-counter bulletin board listing service was about $2 million.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And then there's these additional kind of rules that are being imposed if you want to be listed on the big boards. So clearly there's interest and it's great to see a competitive market emerge. By the way, there have been other attempts. There's that long-term stock exchange. You guys remember that a couple of years ago that was meant to kind of incentivize long-term holdings.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
There was two other equity security exchanges, efforts made in the last couple of years that didn't take off. So this isn't super novel in terms of like seeing a new challenger exchange step up, but I think more competition is always better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I'll say like, it feels like a lot of people are tilted because they defeated Trump and now he's back. And so that tilts a lot of people. There was a lot of effort, a lot of energy, and a feeling of success that Trump was ousted. And the fact that the guy is now the frontrunner to be president again can be very tilting after feeling like you've already won the battle. And guess what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's back. I will also defend Vinod real quick. I'll say, having known Vinod for a long time, he's an investor with me. He's a guy I've come to appreciate and think highly of. We had him at the summit. It was great at the summit. It was great. It was awesome. If you listen to his thing, he said the listeners of the pod and then he said MAGA extremists. So they're not based in Silicon Valley.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
There's not much to talk about except to highlight this image which shows, again, we talked about this a few months ago, hot ocean temperatures drive hurricane and tropical storm activity because as the wind, the air above the ocean starts to move,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
the energy from the ocean gets pulled out, you know, like things cool down, the water cools down, but that energy actually goes back into pushing the wind to move faster and faster. And that's how tropical storms, cyclones, and hurricanes are formed, is warm ocean temperatures.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And there's been this kind of persistent warming since last year in the Atlantic in this particular region where all the hurricanes form. And normally the hurricane season starts kind of call it August to October. Right now, we are seeing temperatures that are so far beyond what we've seen any time historically.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
This image that you're looking at here actually compares the ocean temperatures right now in the Atlantic to where we were at the same time period in 2005, which was a record hurricane year, obviously with Hurricane Trina, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And so the National Hurricane Center, a lot of the climatologists are forecasting that over the next couple of months, we could see and should expect to see probabilistically much larger, stronger, bigger, more frequent hurricanes than we've ever seen historically. So we'll see if it plays out. Just a very small tidbit of news to share. Thought it'd be worth highlighting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think he was referencing that the listeners of the pod are not based in Silicon Valley and they are MAGA extremists.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
We have not seen in the modern era temperatures in the ocean like we're seeing now, that's a fact. I'm not gonna do this whole big prognosis on everything all in one, because I think that's where people feel like there's room for discrediting things. Yeah, that's why I'm trying to atomize this. Yeah, we can be very specific about things. Here's an example.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think what he meant to say was and some of the supporters there are not based in Silicon Valley, meaning like the supporters.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So this is the sea surface temperature going back to 1981. And as you can see, at this point in the year, and the temperature oscillates because of the way the earth tilts towards the sun, And so at this point in the year, we are seeing right now sea surface temperatures that are beyond anything we've seen historically, and it is continuing to climb.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So if this does not taper off or level off, we will see record sea surface temperatures in the August to October timeframe, which will almost certainly push massive hurricane events out of the Atlantic, and they will find their way towards the continental US and Mexico.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Simply data. It's just data, right? It's simply data, right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
One of the theories... So there's theories about El Nino. There's theories about climate change contributing to this. There's also a theory about sulfur dioxide that has now been banned in shipping and cargo vessels that go across the oceans. Last year, they banned sulfur dioxide use in the fuel that's coming out of these. And sulfur dioxide actually reflects sunlight.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So as it goes up into the air, into the atmosphere coming out of these ships, it actually blocks and reflects light. So that would make the oceans cooler. And so a lot of folks have said that over the last couple of decades, we've actually dampened the temperature and the warming that's happened on earth because of all the sulfur dioxide we've been putting up into the atmosphere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But because sulfur dioxide causes acid rain, environmentalists have been pushing for years to ban sulfur dioxide. The problem is with banning sulfur dioxide, you may have this other side effect, which is now more rapid increased warming of the surface and of the oceans.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
There is a reduction in biodiversity that's underway. We can see that using data. But to Chamath's point, Humans have prioritized the progression of individuals forward. China had a billion people that came out of poverty in 30 years. And they came out of poverty because of the industrialization of the production of consumable goods that that population gets to consume.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
They get access to more calories. They get access to more foods. They get to have cars. They get to have houses. All of that, making cement, making concrete, all of those things require industrial systems. And those industrial systems have a cost. That cost is the dollar economic cost, which we're kind of rationalizing with greater productivity. Then there's this whole cost that's externalized.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Got it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So that's the tension is like, if you're wealthy, if you're a wealthy nation, if you're the Western Europe or the United States, you get to stand up and say, stop carbon. But if you're the rest of the world, you're like, I want to have a home. I want to have a car. You want to have the same evolution stuff that America went through or Europe. I want to progress as a person.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I want to progress as a society. And that's the tension that makes this a very difficult problem to resolve, which is how do more of the world get to progress while being cognizant of the long-term effects.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I am deeply optimistic. So let me just say this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I believe strongly that there is a strong relationship between the output of atmospheric carbon and the deleterious effects we see in ecosystems. Okay. That is something I feel like is true from data. I am not, however, as pessimistic
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
pessimistic that the world is going to end in the next decade or two because I see improvements in productivity, meaning how many units we get out for every unit in or how many units we get out for every unit of carbon that's emitted. And those productivity, meaning better technology systems, are rapidly changing how we make things and how people are accessing goods and services.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think that that's why I am like, because I'm a techno-optimist, I'm optimistic about where things are headed. Gotcha.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And it is also why I get very angry and upset about any efforts or attempts to slow down the adoption of technology, because these things will pull people forward and make that happen faster without all the deleterious side effects that we've unfortunately had to do in the absence of technology.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The unfortunate reality in a voting system, an election cycle like we're in, Vinod went and did a fundraiser. It's public, but he did a fundraiser for Biden a few weeks ago. And he wants to win the election. He wants to make his horse win. There's a lot of reasons why I'm sure Vinod has chosen that person to be his horse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And so when you get on the playing field, you got two teams and only one team wins. So everyone pulls out all the stops to win. One of the things that is done is unfortunate and it over time causes an erosion and a hardening into a kind of polarity between all people, which is that you call the other side wrong or bad or extreme. The term that he used, which really I think
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
personifies the problem is he said their listeners are their MAGA extremists. Extremists being the word, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Whatever. The extremism phrase is used by both parties to describe the points of view of the other side. And what I think is lacking is a reshifting of the perspective to say their views are valid. I acknowledge their views. I hear them. I know why they feel that way. I'm understanding where that group of people are coming from.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And to have that acknowledgement unfortunately softens and weakens your position and ability to go out and win an election. And so both sides harden themselves and use terms like this. to try and discredit the other side. So it's unfortunate to see, I think we all understand where someone who's trying to win a battle on the field is coming from when they're trying to do this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But I do think that what is deeply lacking in the erosion that's arisen is because we can't say, I hear you, I see the problems, I recognize you as people just like us, you have kids, your families, and you have a different point of view on the policies that will work and the individual that will realize those policies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Here's the point. It happens even worse offline when we're not on the show. It's unbelievable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Oh, shit. Let's go, Freeberg. Let's get this party started, baby. Come on, podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yes, that's my excuse too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I got a little founder mode there. Thanks for looking out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
This is hilarious.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
David Sachs had a last-minute board meeting, so he will not be joining us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Why are the feminist groups finding themselves aligning more with Hamas than they are with this core, what seems to be and should be a core ideology?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Cheryl, let me ask, because I think it's important to note, some people will counter and say, look at this article from Grayzone. Grayzone said Western media concocts evidence that the UN report on October 7th sex crimes failed to deliver for March 7th.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
They said Western media promoted a UN report as proof Hamas sexually assaulted Israelis, yet the report's authors admitted they couldn't locate a single victim, suggested Israeli officials staged a rape scene and denounced inaccurate forensic interpretations.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I just wanna give you an opportunity to respond to Grayzone's article, because I think a lot of folks have pointed to that article and the articles that that organization has put out as being representative of an alternative view that the sexual violence maybe didn't happen as evidenced in your film. Maybe you can address it, give you a chance to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Just as a follow-up, what is the social and political motivation of a group like Grayzone and other appointed deniers? What are they trying to accomplish by denying?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
because even they understand that it is not- Because the sexual violence taints it in a way, right? As opposed to just being soldiers killing soldiers, the sexual violence aspect of it taints the valor of the resistance. Is that a fair way to summarize it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
If there was no sexual violence, would it be fair to call it a resistance? I would not call it a resistance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Sexual violence. I think like for us to have a path towards peace, there has to be a degree, despite the pain being felt, a degree of empathy for the other side's desires, the other side's pain, the other side's feeling that they were enacting a resistance against an oppression. How does one side embrace that aspect having gone through this? How do we get to a point
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
that a people can say, I have empathy for the resistance after feeling this sort of pain. And this is the age old story of war, eye for an eye, it never ends, it always goes on. What's the right path here to hear the other side, to hear the kids on campuses, to hear the people in Palestine, to hear the world saying, we feel free Palestine after going through this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
If you were Netanyahu, what would you do differently? I'm sorry for cutting you off.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Why has the other side captivated so much of the youth in the United States? You're very close to Harvard. Maybe tell us what's gone on at Harvard over the last few years. How did we end up in this place where so much of the youth is so sympathetic to the Palestinian cause? and not as moved as you are by the trauma experienced on the other side.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
What's going to happen at Harvard? What's going to happen at the Ivy Leagues?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Yeah. But not violent. I went to Berkeley. It wasn't lunch without a protest. I mean, that's like the daily thing you do there. You know, you go grab a sandwich and you go protest, you go back to class. Like that was great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I think things are very different. Yeah, I think things are very different.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
But if you feel deep down in your heart that it's a matter of life or death, don't you feel justified that having an encampment, setting up a tent, living there, showing that that degree of conviction is necessary because you're saving lives versus, hey, I think something is a good idea. Let me go protest for an hour during lunch and then I'll leave. It's never going to move the needle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
The question I'm asking as a young person is how do I move the needle? And there's not a lot of ways that people feel empowered to move the needle. So it seems rational to me to some degree that they want to go into these encampments and they want to do something strong and show their conviction. But again, I think that there's a question on how much truth is anyone willing to see?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
How much are folks willing to embrace the other side? How much are they willing to listen? I see very little listening, very little dialogue going on because then you put up a list of demands that are unmeetable. And, you know, you deny anyone to have a conversation and you deny listening to the other side and you take this hardened view that doesn't allow for progress.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And I think it's the hardened views on all sides that's limiting progress entirely. Unfortunately, the youth have been subsumed by this. And it's really frustrating to see because I worry about what that leads to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
as complicated as that may be to do, it is incredibly important so that you can create- And doing so does not dissolve empathy for the other side's cause or for the other side's motivations or objectives. Having empathy for the circumstances that happened here is the equivalent of having empathy for the plight of the Palestinian people and what they're dealing with today following October 7th.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And I think that we need to recognize that both things can be true. We can have empathy for both sides.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Take a break. We'll come back. Let's take five, 10 minutes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Yeah, Berkeley-based startup, ProFluent Bio.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Have we talked about CRISPR and gene editing before on the show or no?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So there's debate around who discovered CRISPR-Cas systems first and found their application, but generally... Whose side are you on?
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
MIT is an open source guy, which is why I'm excited about this topic today. Because I don't give a I think things that are in nature are in nature. And I don't think you should be able to pat. I don't think you should be able to patent stuff that you discover in nature.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So CRISPR, CAS, CRISPR, CAS, CAS, Cas proteins, C-A-S proteins, are proteins that can go in to a cell, and they have what's called a guide RNA, little piece of RNA attached to them, that allows that protein to find its way to a specific point in DNA in that cell, in the nucleus of that cell. And when that protein hits that specific location, it cuts it like scissors.
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And so the protein finds the part of the DNA it's looking to cut, attaches itself, cuts the DNA, and a cut is made. And so this capability was discovered actually in bacteria, and it was an evolved system that bacteria developed to actually protect themselves from viruses. So the CRISPR-Cas complex emerged through evolution where bacteria started to figure out that they could cut up viral DNA.
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So they made these proteins. These proteins would attach to viral DNA and destroy the viruses that came into the bacteria cells. So scientists, arguably from Harvard, from Berkeley, and from other places around the world,
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
in the early 2010s started to do research and identified ways that we could leverage these proteins that we were discovering in nature to do targeted DNA editing in human cells and plant cells and other cells. So rather than them just being used as a defense mechanism by bacteria, that we could harness these proteins and make them useful to go in and do specific gene editing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Now, why would we want to do gene editing? Gene editing, if done precisely enough and efficiently enough would allow us to go in and fix genetic diseases in humans, for example. It would allow us to take T cells and reprogram them to go and attack cancer cells back in the human body.
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
It would allow us in the case of agriculture, which I'm very close to and what I work on every day, to figure out ways to make specific changes to the genes of a plant, to make that plant grow in higher yield or change itself to be disease resistant or drought resistant or other features that might be helpful to agriculture and to humanity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So gene editing became this amazing toolkit that emerged around 2012, 2013, and just blew up on the market. And the main original foundational patents, which are now mostly held after a lot of litigation by the Broad Institute, which is, you know, there's this kind of joint patent arrangement with the Broad and MIT and Harvard,
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
are being used in medical applications are being used in agriculture applications, they're being used in all these different tools, but they're patented, there's royalties, there's fees, all this stuff. And in the years that followed, many other cast proteins started to get discovered all these different types of proteins were discovered.
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And the reason you want to use different proteins is you want to improve the efficiency. So how frequently or how good are these proteins at editing the cell, and eliminate off target effects, meaning the protein isn't making cuts or making changes to other parts of the DNA that you don't want it to.
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So there's been this search underway for the last decade for new cast proteins and developing new cast proteins. And dozens have been discovered. People are trying to patent them, people are trying to make them do special things, they can only change one letter. All these different tools are emerging.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So we went from having absolutely no ability to do gene editing just over a decade ago to suddenly having all of these different tools that could do gene editing really efficiently, really cheaply, really affordably, really scalably, and more precisely. So this company, ProFluent, they actually used an AI model, what they call a protein language model.
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
to create and train an entirely new library of cast proteins that do not exist in nature today. So they basically took 26 terabases, so 26 trillion letters of assembled genomes and metagenomes, this is from various species, and start to simulate new cast proteins that could be useful to replace the ones that are on the market today or improvements on what's in the market today.
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And they found one that they called Open CRISPR-1. And they made it publicly available under an open source license. So any startup, any research lab, any individual, any scientist can use this particular Cas protein to go in and make edits without having to deal with patents and IP and claims on who owns what that they found in nature. And this particular
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
protein that they identified is 400 mutations away from anything that they've seen in nature. So basically, the AI model started to learn what sequence of DNA generated what structure of protein that was really good at being a gene editor. And they started to discover and iterate on building new ones. And the AI started to predict, hey, this would be a good gene editor.
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
This would be a good gene editor. And they came up with dozens of new gene editing molecules that don't exist in nature today. They identified one that they then sequenced. They created it. They put it in a lab. They tested it. And it turned out to be much better than Cas9, which is the main one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
To find a new cast protein. So the guide RNA is just RNA that's like the key Think about a CRISPR-Cas system has two components. One is the Cas protein. That's the giant protein that goes in and cuts DNA. And attached to it is what's called a guide RNA. That guide RNA is the specific letters. And those specific letters are like a key in a lock. They go attached to a particular part of the DNA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And then that giant protein cuts in that exact spot. And so what everyone's been working on is new proteins. And they've been trying to find new cast proteins that aren't gonna go do off-target cutting, that aren't gonna make mistakes, that are gonna be perfect at making the exact cut you want to make.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So everyone's always trying to improve the efficiency and reduce the off-target effects of these systems.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And so what they did is they tried to create a new protein that doesn't exist by learning from all of these other cast proteins that exist in nature today and identifying the three-dimensional structure of them and allow the model to predict a cast protein that might actually be better than anything that's found in nature today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Well, that's going to be tested in the courts later, I'm sure. But they open sourced it. So they're not claiming any IP on it. They're not making any claims on it with the patent office. And they're saying, look, it's free and available.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
That's such a leap.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
There's a simple truth to all this, which is every single life sciences lab on earth is using this technology today. It has absolutely revolutionized life sciences. It has changed everything. It has reset the trajectory of human health, of agriculture, and of industrial biotechnology. Those are the three major markets where gene editing is useful. It is changing everything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And so it is already a ubiquitous tool. We basically created software engineering for DNA, for life, with this capability. And so this system that these guys just published on, I think is a really wonderful... manifestation of how AI is allowing us to open source and create improved tools. And it's, it's really important for humanity. And so I think it's just great to see happen. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
The number one choice, yeah. The number one choice. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I'm not super familiar. I've met the ProFluent guys a couple of times. I'm not super familiar with what their business model is going to be. But I hate that startups are worried or feel encumbered by... the patent landscape associated with CRISPR-Cas systems, and that they can't build novel products and move humanity forward.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I'm hopeful that we do see more of these open source-like tools become available and ubiquitous. It's almost the equivalent of having Linux, where everyone can now, you know, as an operating system, or HTML being, you know, standard code. I don't know if you remember to use... Before HTML5, a lot of people were using Macromedia Flash in the browser.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
It was a huge blocker. So you had to pay the license fee to create Flash content, and then you had to, I don't know if they sold consumer plugins.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And they were trying to make money on both sides.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Yeah, in order to put multimedia on the internet, you used to have to pay license fees. And then HTML5 basically created multimedia capabilities native to the HTML, which is open sourced, and so everyone could do it. And I think that it's really important that we see that happening with gene editing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I think all the applications of gene editing should be patentable and protectable, but the core tools are so powerful and important that I think it's very difficult and hard to see how we are accelerating humanity's progress. by keeping these things at bay. And it's really great to see open source tools like this hit the market. And I think it's really important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And I think it's really amazing to see AI create them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Well, they created their own LLM. They call it a protein language model. So they took all of this genome data that is generally very publicly available. There's a lot of this stuff published in open genome databases. You can download it, ingest it, and use it for whatever purposes you want as a life sciences researcher.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So they took 26 trillion base pairs of data and basically used that to train their model. And then using that trained model, they then started to run inference on it to say, come up with cast systems that are novel, that could theoretically have efficacy greater than what we see in nature with the natural cast systems.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And then the model started to output all of these novel proteins, then they started to test them. And they found that this one worked really, really well after testing in the lab. So actually, here's a great image. So here you can see basically in training the model. So it's a little bit technically complicated what they did in the steps to generate this system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
But ultimately, the system yielded something that they could then create, put in a lab environment and in the lab environment test how well it worked. And what they showed was that it actually worked better than cast nine, which is the primary gene editing protein use today. So, you know, pretty powerful set of steps and all unlocked by, again, freely available data,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
and building their own model and now ultimately open sourcing the best output of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
All he'd have to do is just take excerpts from the show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Now that's something that would be a benign tweet from real tomorrow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Please do your best impression.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Yeah, reason number 756 to go to Vegas. No sales tax on Laura Piana. This is in 2012, by the way. Very precious. If you dress like me, I won't initially think you are a D-bag.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I mean, this is when... Cheryl, before we get started here... Cheryl should read that last one. That's really good. All right, Cheryl, you get the last one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Anybody has the right to mock Chamath. I mean, you've had to watch his growth over 20 years. You've had to suffer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Anyway, the secret's out. The secret's out. The secret's out. My guess is that Twitter handle is about to get popular again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So let's just keep that in mind here, folks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And we're not journalists. We're not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
We're not traditional journalists. We're friends talking, trying to understand stuff. And just to be clear, I know a lot of commentary comes back. Well, why didn't you say this or ask this? And, you know, I think we're just when we have guests on, we just want to talk with them like we would in a living room and have a conversation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Well, I just want to zoom out because I think, Cheryl, we had, I believe, a couple of conversations after October 7th. Amongst other folks, I've heard that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
There's been a lot of disappointment that institutions, organizations, ideologies that have been supported by folks like yourself, or maybe you can speak, I don't want to put words in your mouth, suddenly emerged to be something quite different when
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
threads of antisemitism started to emerge and folks began to deny certain things based on their ideology about the oppressor-oppressed concept being applied to Israel and Palestine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And maybe you can tell us a little bit about the surprise and journey that you've been through since October 7th with respect to some of the groups that you've supported that suddenly seemed quite different than what maybe we all thought they were. prior?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Look, it's a great question because, I mean... Sorry, and that's the conversation Cheryl and I have been having that led to saying, hey, why don't you come on the show this week and let's talk about this and other topics, particularly given the timing with the release of the film.