Chamath Palihapitiya
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let me let me ask you a question. So if they if they end up facing the terminal nature of this, which is if we don't put someone in that can win, we lose. We are not going to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let's assume let's assume that they take a read of the polls. They take a read of the nation. They actually do a real look at the circumstances on the ground, which is that she is not going to win. If they looked at that and they said, you know what? We need to win. And some sense comes into the head of the leaders of the Democratic Party. And they say, who can win?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And a person like Jamie Dimon polls that he can win. There is a chance, I think, that maybe they say, this is how we're going to get back to the White House.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think it's a really good point. What we'll see – is just how rational the Democratic Party leadership is. Are they going to continue to play based on insider first principles, or will they actually take a first principles point of view on how do we win the election? And I think it will be very revealing about how the leaders of the Democratic Party think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
based on the decision they make and their donors. Well, I don't know if that's true, because I actually think that there's a risk that donors are fleeing the ship, right? Yeah, there's a rift between the donor class and the Democratic Party leadership, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And by the way, sacks, what you're saying is probably right. But I think it could actually end up being a signal that there might be a change in how the who the donors end up supporting the next go around for to realize this leadership change in the Democratic Party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let your winners ride. Rain Man, David Sackett.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Great. How are you? You look so relaxed. Look at you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
We're definitely going to be talking about the changing landscape of American politics. So we are going to have some representation there to have that conversation. We're going to be talking about the future of media. We're going to be doing some really cool technology deep dives in areas like robotics, age reversal, eVTOLs, and talking a lot about AI meets enterprise software.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
My advice to the Democrats is to embrace an outsider. Give the people what they want. Freedom of choice. Freedom to elect a leader and bring someone in that falls outside of the traditional political spectrum that does not want to hold public office because it's not their career. They can bring money to the table.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
They can bring credibility to the table and they can win votes and compete effectively against Trump. If your goal is to retain the White House, Kamala or Joseph Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Jamie Dimon. Jamie Dimon. Bob Iger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You know what you're doing right now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I'm not speaking about realism. I'm speaking about what it would take to win. If they actually want to have a shot at winning, someone that could win a popular vote, someone that could actually win votes away from Trump, because you can't introduce someone like Whitmer or Moore this late in the season when no one in the United States knows who the heck this person is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
When you have someone with credibility, with economic and business success, with executive authority, with capital and connections into the Democratic Party, but isn't part of the political machine that you and many others in the Democratic Party are now starting to hate. Let's go have an opportunity to actually win. Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And if they were smart and they got their shit together, they would say, you know what? It's time for a change. Just like the Republicans had to do when Trump stepped into the party. Bingo.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So we have a number of... the leading enterprise software CEOs joining us for conversations on that front. So it's shaping up to be really amazing programming. Like Jason said, we held back 400 tickets from the initial batch and we're going to release 100 this week. So put an application in, we're trying to be selective and it's going to be amazing. The parties are going to be awesome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So I'm really excited how it's coming together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The first night of the summit, we've rented out a bunch of great restaurants around town in LA, and we're putting people together for dinner at all these different restaurants. And then the parties are nights two and three. which are going to be, you know, beautifully done. It's going to be great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, so I've said for a long time, we've obviously had conversations about Twitter and shadow banning and some of the other activities on what are typically called social media platforms. At the end of the day, these are all, as I've shared in the past, my belief is they're all content companies. They have a choice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
as executives and editors of those companies to decide how to editorialize the content on their platforms. They can choose to create content with writers that they pay on staff, like a newspaper might. They can choose to create content with actors and directors that they pay to create novel
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
video series for them like HBO might, or they can choose to make content creation available to third parties that don't get paid like users. And at the end of the day, what they choose to do with that content and how they choose to display that content is up to them as an editorial platform that is ultimately creating content for other consumers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I don't view that user-generated content platforms are a right of the consumers to have access to share their thoughts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
They have the internet to do that, and they have many other places that they can go to, to create blogs, to create websites, to do whatever else they wanna do to express themselves, but to have a technological platform that lets them submit content, that then the editors get to decide how and where they show that content,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think they should understand because it's in the terms and conditions when you sign up. So I don't believe in social media platforms as utilities. And I don't think that the government should have any role in deciding what is or isn't on those platforms. This goes both ways.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think that the company should decide what kind of platforms they wanna have, whether they wanna have free speech that allows inappropriate content, or content that might be offensive, or whether they want to have a highly moderated platform to make it more broadly available or appealing to users, it's entirely up to them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I really do appreciate the ruling, because I think that the government should have less of a role in intervening and deciding how media companies create content and how they editorialize that content.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Everyone comes to the dinners, everything. Yeah, it's going to be great. So we're trying to create more space for people to meet each other. I know that's been a big thing in the past in the meetups and at the summit is people love meeting other folks in the community. So yeah, smaller groups.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
What else is striking is just how insular and protectionist Texas and Florida are being. And it's not just with this law, it's also with the lab-grown meat or cultivated meat laws that they've passed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And other states are passing similar laws, which is limiting innovation in the state and limiting freedom to operate in the state in order to protect interests of individuals and corporations that already exist within that state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So it's really important to note, this isn't a good or a bad thing, but those states are operating in a way, the lawmakers of those states are operating in a way that's trying to protect the interests of the individuals and businesses in the state over the freedoms and the liberties that might otherwise be available.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I think we often talk about these states being more free, but these laws and the cultivated meat ban laws, in my opinion, indicate that these states are actually on the contrary. They're much more kind of protectionist. Where's your take on that, Sax?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You can expect a couple hundred depending on the location. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
It's at summit.allinpodcast.com.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I don't know how much experience you guys have had dealing with
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
federal regulators you have a lot more than i think agencies yeah and i yeah i've worked in a lot across a number of federal agencies in in businesses i've been involved in and i can tell you it is as i'm sure you would expect there's a lot of bureaucratic morass in in these agencies and if you think about it it's because the agencies are effectively under the chevron doctrine vested
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
unlimited authority to create rules and regulations that they then determine are meant to represent the laws that were passed by Congress. But more often than not, those rules and regulations begin to bleed outside of the lines of the intention of the laws when they were passed. And this is because those agencies, by creating new rules and regulations, this isn't some like
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
you know, I have a subversive reason for doing this, but these agencies have an incentive for creating more rules and regulations because they then get to go back to Congress and ask for more budget and hire more people and grow the importance and the scale of their agency. This is the natural kind of organic growth that arises in any living system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And any organization of individuals is also a living system and has the same incentive. It wants to have more resources. It wants to get bigger. It wants to do more stuff. It wants to be more important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And the Chevron doctrine has allowed agencies to operate independent and outside of the lines that were defined in the laws that were passed that then vested them this authority that then they can go and say, I want more budget. I want to get bigger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I'm optimistic that this ruling will limit the agency's authorities and limit their ability to create more bureaucratic overhead, more headcount, more individuals that need to now go and administer the rules and regulations that they themselves create. And so I'm actually very optimistic and hopeful about this change. Now, the downside, the negative to this,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
is that there are a number of really important regulatory roles that agencies have come to play that never got passed as bills, like environmental protection rules. And there's a negative consequence that will arise to some degree with respect to health of the environment, health of people, et cetera. But I think net-net, Congress needs to do its job. It needs to go back
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
to session and it needs to sit down and needs to pass laws that really clearly define what is and what isn't going to be legal going forward. And then the agencies operate strictly within those bounds.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Vlad from Robin Hood. He's the guy who did it. Vlad from Robin Hood. Shout out to Vlad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I feel like I've become a conservative. Maybe I'm a conservative now, Sax. I don't know. I may have to sit down and confess to you because I read a number of these decisions and I was like, I agree. I agree. And this is supposed to be a conservative court. So I'm not sure. Well, it's actually, it's not, it's not an originalist court.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I made it last. I'll counter the Rick's Cabaret recession indicator as valid anymore based on the theory of our good friend on the group chat, who I think has done a very good job highlighting that the strip club industry has been decimated by OnlyFans. As a result, Rick's Cabaret is more likely down because of OnlyFans and the lack of...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
shall we say, employee base available to work in these establishments because they make more money working online at OnlyFans now. That was a theory posited by one of our good friends.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, OnlyFans took all the entertainers out of the strip club industry because they make more money online.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The cabaret industry. I'm sorry. Please edit that, Nick. And as a result, the quality of the product at the cabaret business has declined. And as a result, revenue has declined. And it took a little bit of time to earn that in. So the virtual cabaret industry. That's our friend's theory. We give him a big shout out. We will. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Didn't you ever watch The Office? I don't watch The Office. Oh my God, JTAL, what is wrong with you? You would love The Office. I never got into it. I've probably watched it like four times.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think that the distinction between acting in their favor executive capacity as president of the United States versus their personal capacity as an individual candidate or an individual that could benefit some other means is a really good distinction. I think how the courts ultimately adjudicate that distinction is what's still ahead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
But I do think that the clarity of that distinction is critical. It seems like the right thing, how this is going to play out with respect to election interference. Does interfering in the election constitute one's role as an executive overseeing the federal election process?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Or does it constitute one's personal benefits that may arise if one is individually elected as the key determinant that the lower court will likely have to make? Maybe that gets kicked back up again in the future if there's a disagreement over the decision that the court does make with regards to that distinction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
After we record the show, before we publish, it's going to be a whole.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Biden just went on a campaign call and he said, let me say this as clearly as I possibly can, as simply and straightforward as I can. I am running. No one's pushing me out. I'm not leaving. I'm in this race to the end and we're going to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
But think about it. Think about the strategy. If you're the Democratic Party leaders and you are evaluating who to choose to replace Biden, the first thing you do is you have to double down on Biden. Because if you were neutral to negative on Biden or passive, it's immediately interpreted as he's being swapped out and then you don't have time to pick the right candidate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
In order to have the time to pick the right candidate, you have to first double down on Biden, be really declarative that he's our candidate, put him on media, put him on talk shows while you were figuring out who's gonna replace him and what the strategy is to get that person to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
There's a chance that what's actually going on is a little bit more of a structured strategy around find the right candidate, set up the right program to get them elected, figure out how we're going to move the $120 million that we raised from Biden over to whoever this new candidate is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So you've got to put together a real plan. You can't just do the hot swap. You've got to have a plan for the hot swap, which means in the meantime, you've got to buy time. And the best way to buy time is throw Biden forward and be like, hey, look, this guy's going to go do media.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
There's a political party. I mean, you can interpret it as you wish.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
If you run a debate, it shows it shows weakness as The party needs to select a leader and they need to say, this is our candidate. Because if they do this, it's too diffuse. It weakens whoever ends up winning. It strengthens the party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let me ask you a question. If Jamie Dimon declared that he's going to he would be happy to take on the candidacy for the Democratic Party. He would call his friend, Warren Buffett. He would call his friend, Jeff Bezos. He would call up his own personal banker and say, we've got half a billion, let's go. And let's have a run at this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
There are certain folks that are outside of the typical political spectrum that might actually have a shot at doing the extraordinary here and stepping up and doing exactly what Trump and others that support Trump don't want to see happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
which is a candidate that can actually challenge Trump on the merits of their experience, on their values, on their capabilities as leaders, as executives, and on their past performance. And I think that someone like that might be the strategist's kind of move to say, this is the one thing we can do that can defeat Trump, because we all know from the polling that Harris doesn't stand a shot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
But here's why. Bloomberg ran against other Democrats. This is a person that is running against another billionaire, which is Trump. And so if you have two people who are now on equal footing and it is the Trump versus the non-Trump billionaire, a lot of people in this country, I suspect, Let them cook. Go for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let me ask you a question. This is what Trump did, right? Yes, but Trump came in and he rewrote the rules of the party by running. You're right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Let's just stress that. How would you think about the four years that he was president? In hindsight, what would you say was done well? What would you say was done poorly? Just those two things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I just want to paint this thing and then I'd like to hear the glass half full version to the extent you have one. But basically, I just want to understand. So my understanding was in 2020, what happened was not that Saudi Arabia and Russia were cooperating to cut prices, but they got into a fight because it wasn't really Saudi, but it was OPEC, which includes us and OPEC Plus, which includes...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
versus Russia, and we initiated against them, which they counteracted a price war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So what I'm trying to understand is there's a war in Yemen. Right. We don't stop the armaments of Saudi. And I guess what you're saying is that then triggered An OPEC versus Russia?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay, guys, hold on. Let's just finish one thing before the other. I would just like an answer of what is the good and the bad of Donald Trump? And then what I was going to ask you is, what was the good and the bad of Biden? I just want those four answers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Just to levels. set with a piece of data. Let's leave the opinion. I'm just really curious. I just want the high level report card on the last two presidents.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And then the follow-up question is, if it were an open Democratic primary, would you have voted for Kamala Harris?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Did you have any more interactions with them when you were on the campaign? Did you get a sense of? No, did not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
We're not going to get progress. I really want to hear what Mark thinks. Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Let me go back to my question. So I'm just going to give you a succinct summary of Mark Cuban's position. His evaluation of the Trump presidency, the positives were tax cuts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The negatives were continuing the war in Yemen when they had a chance to, and then
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Right, in the style. And the tone and style of how he governed. Can we do Biden? What are the things that Biden and Harris did well that have helped the country? And what are the things that they could have done better, did not do well?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay, so that was border was bad. Anything else bad or should we shift to the good?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So pork barrel spending, basically unaccountable spending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So let's look forward now to a Kamala Harris candidacy for president. Of the things... So we know the Donald Trump track record because he gets the credit for the things he got right, and he has to take ownership of the things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I'll be honest. I've never heard this specific theory. I'll take the time to look and figure it out for myself and I'll let you. But what I'm curious about is that track record is there. Now, how much of the and do you think it's important? For us to give credit for the good things to Kamala and responsibility for the bad things to Kamala in that so that you have an equivalent A-B comparison.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Do you think about it that way or not?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I like to take credit for when the boss tells me I'm owning something and then I do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
We finally found ground truth. Here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Let's just go outside of America for one second, because Mark, you're Jewish, you're of Jewish heritage. I would really like your opinion on what's happening outside of America. There is some crazy pictures over the last few weeks coming out from the Middle East. There's still all this complicating stuff with China. Where do you stand on all of these things?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Where do you stand on the Mearsheimer Sachs, Jeffrey Sachs kind of school of logic that there's a military industrial accomplice that tends to just push us towards these war zones and these forever wars? Where do you just stand on those issues? And how do you think about that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Sun tropics. One of those, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Mark, you said of all the roles, if there's a Harris administration, you said you want to run the SEC.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay. Okay. So do you think, and particularly wise, Gensler, has he done a particularly bad job?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Have you heard her say a word? Mark, boil it all up. What's your general sense of her? How should we all think about her?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
When did she say something smart? I mean, seriously, what's the last thing she said that was smart?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I'm curious. Jason, you want to fact check the window list? By the way, the window list thing, Mark, just so you know, because Nick shared it with us, it's an Architectural Digest article. Apparently, Eric Adams, the mayor of New York, proposed...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So let's wrap the politics section with just a final question because- No, wait, I have a question. Yeah, let's leave politics. Mark, very pointed question. Why did you sell the Mavs at this moment?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Mark, you have a lot of fingers and a lot of pots in other businesses. You have a really important thing you're doing in drugs that you may want to talk about. Yeah, thanks for bringing that up, Jamal. If you look at the next 10 years of your life, so you're 66, between now, 14 years, between now and 80, 81, what's your goal? Like, what are you working on? What are the things that you care about?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Where are you putting your capital? What are you trying to do?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
We got to double click on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Cialis just seems better value for money.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Saks is like, what is that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
What is the name of this website? It's just...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
What's the pushback? But Mark, I mean, what is the pushback you get? Because that's counter to the trend, right? So is it just infinite growth or how does the industry respond when you create that price differential?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
But did something happen to you or somebody around you that motivated you to go after the PBMs or was just this clinical business analysis of like, this just doesn't make sense and it can be done better?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And it was like, well, this is what I was going to ask you because CMS is now empowered to negotiate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And have you had that conversation with the Republicans as well? Seems it makes sense for everybody.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
What's your business intuition tell you about that, actually? So you have this crazy capital race between closed and open. How do you think that plays out?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So maybe just to wrap, Mark, so these next 10 or 15 years, is it about doubling down on these current things, making cost plus thing huge, like harvesting essentially? Or are you going to do new things? Or is just the bar getting higher?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I mean, he's a little weak on the defense, but he's-
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yep, that's a super defensive play. It says it's more a reflection of Sam than anything else is what you're saying. Yep.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Sorry, there were 44 co-founders.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Here's the one thing that I'll say, and I think Mark said this in a different way, but I'll just I don't think you can underestimate how companies like Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, Amazon will react when they feel cornered. And I think in the last 20 to 25 years, what you've seen is those companies, when their backs are against the wall, they use money, they're sharp elbowed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
But the consistent thing is they've won. And so the real question is, do people look at the chart of the users? Because typically what happens is it's users what tilts these companies. When something, some upstart, you remember when Snapchat was about to explode? There was a decision, we're going to decapitate this company. Facebook effectively did that. They relegated it to the corner. Zynga?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yep. Zynga. There's many examples. So the real question is when they see that this app is going to be at three or 500 million Mal, and they appear on some list where they're bigger than, I don't know, pick your favorite app inside of Meta or Google, will they freak out? And if they do freak out, what do they do?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Do you have a Tesla, Mark?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Do you use the FSD? And if so, how is it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The subversion of democracy is really the real threat to democracy. To your point, you have the right to elect a person up or down. None of us are choosing to elect a shadow cabinet of handlers to run America. That's not what any of us are signing up for. And I think that's what we have the risk of having for another four years if this lie isn't exposed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
What I find unbelievably shocking is all of these data points now just make so much sense because the through line is, as you said, a coordinated effort to kind of obfuscate his decline. Like if you thought about this in a different way, if you took a 29-year-old and a 32-year-old, would you say that they're the same? Absolutely, right? If you took a 39 and a 42-year-old, they're the same.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
A 49 and a 52-year-old, they're the same. But the reality is a 79 and an 82-year-old or a 78 and an 82-year-old are meaningfully different. And the reason is that because there is significant decline every year, every month, every day, and you're seeing the impact of every week, day, and month, and year as a president of the United States wear on an 82-year-old body.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And I'm not sure any of us would do much better. But the reality is that when you're at that age, there's a level of transparency that's required and we have the opposite. So take Warren Buffett as the counterfactual to this. Warren Buffett is in his early 90s. But what does he do every year? He marches tens of thousands of people into Omaha. He sits them down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
He sits at the front of a dais with Coca-Cola and peanut brittle and speaks for six to eight hours and is sharp as a tack. Well, the point is, if you decide after those six to eight hours of fully transparent, unedited interaction with Warren Buffett that you don't think he's capable of leading Berkshire, you can sell the stock.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
What they don't do is hide him behind the shadows, propping him out in package interviews and all of this other stuff. That is un-American and undemocratic. And you see why, because the importance, as Friedberg said, is so high. You probably do have a lot of people outside the United States
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
really questioning what is going on in the greatest country in the world right now, that this can even happen. And the people that you thought were so anti-Trump, right, that they would do anything to make sure that Donald Trump was unelected, while they're actually not that anti-Trump, they're just pro-power.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Because the thing that they care more about than their hatred of Donald Trump is their desire to stay in power.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The hot swap is going to create a free-for-all, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Hold on. Satire Sacks has a rebuttal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
It's incredible that not a single staff member has resigned. Isn't that incredible? Like, where they see this, Jason, and they have the moral clarity to say, hold on a second, this is really wrong. Not a single one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
How, like, how does somebody who's worked for Biden for 40 or 50 years, who sat in Camp David helping to do debate prep, at no point have the compassion to say, sir, this is not working?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The only reason they have a job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I'm just saying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't think you need to go into all of those mechanics to get the outcome of a new candidate. All Joe Biden has to do is go into the Democratic Convention and release the delegates. Yes, of course. Yes, technically.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
But the problem with releasing the delegates is I do think it creates a free-for-all unless the party then exposes this next facet of their plan, which is that they are so in control that they only allow one candidate to go up there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yeah, that's done. And then I think what happens is depending on who that person is, they'll either... I think the Democratic Party... is probably at risk of a pretty meaningful reset. And I think that these tactics, I think are very much seen and understood by the American people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think that people do not like this idea that you vote for person A, but instead you get persons B through Z. I don't think that's what anybody thinks the election for the president of the United States should be. It should be two people independently. And then when you see one person that's not really in a position to run faithfully,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I actually think that Donald Trump last night showed tremendous restraint and compassion. I think that is the right way to deal with this situation. I think it's just acknowledging that President Biden is not altogether there. So without making claims of a cold or anything else, this is the security and the well-being and the economic prosperity of the most important country in the world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Why are we messing around?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
This also goes all the way back to 2016, because if you remember and you look at the real run up into the 2016 primary, you have to remember President Obama sat Joe Biden down and said, you cannot run. And the reason was to direct the Democratic Party and establishment and energy towards Hillary Clinton, who ultimately lost that election.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
There's a very important question here, which is if Joe Biden had actually run in 2016, you may have actually had him beat Donald Trump in 2016, and he probably would have continued into 2020. This would be a totally different situation for the Democrats.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So back to your point, David, all of these backroom shenanigans and negotiating and gerrymandering and politicking and power broking is not how democracy should work. As messy as the Republicans are, I have to give, you know, I tip my hat to them. They run very straightforward, fair, visible, transparent face-offs between people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And you may not like the candidates, but the process is what it's supposed to be, messy, turbulent, but you see all sides. Whereas this tends to be managed from the inside out. And I think that that is, as your point, being exposed. And I think that's what really has to stop within the Democrats. They need to open the floodgates. A Bobby Kennedy should have had the chance to run.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Dean Phillips should have actually had the chance to run, but they were not and they were prevented. And by the way, props to Dean Phillips, who in a very respectful and compassionate way was telling the truth from day one. And he was essentially censored. He was not allowed to basically tell you what he... He told everybody what he observed in front of his face.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
No, because I donated. I donated and I didn't get anything. All I asked for was a chance to sit down and talk to the president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I just think that company formation has changed after the end of Zerp. And so I think that that chart speaks more to a couple of things. One is that where typically people were hiring for software engineering roles, which was a lot of SaaS businesses, contracted a lot, and the net new amount of SaaS startups also, I don't think, materially increased. And so that was one big switch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Second is you went through a whole bunch of layoffs at the big cap tech companies as they reestablished profitability. I think when you layered those two things, that explains that chart more than the emergence of AI tools. Just practically what I see is all of these AI tools can add a 10% or 15% lift to an individual person if you are in a traditional organization.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't think these things are the panacea that they're marketed as being. These are not creating 10x engineers. At some point, these tools will be good enough, and at some point, companies will get started from scratch that use those tools and create a level of productivity at one-tenth of the workforce, but that hasn't happened yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So I think that that chart is more about layoffs and contraction in tech more than anything else.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I mean, it makes so much sense for them. So I think they should do it as quickly as possible. We are in the first inning of what should probably be an enormous tectonic shift in technology. And I think if anything... whoever wins in the first inning usually isn't the one that's winning by the ninth inning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And so I would encourage anybody that's winning right now to monetize, get secondaries, take money off the table as fast as possible because the future is unknown. And the more disruptive the technology is, the more entropy there is, which means that there's going to be more changes, not less. And again, I would just look at search as an example. I would look at social networking as an example.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
When you look 20 years later, the people who captured all the value were not the ones at the beginning who everybody thought was going to win. And so I think if it plays out similarly, it's important for the people that are in the lead today to recognize it's too early and they should monetize their perceived success as quickly as they can to the largest magnitude possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yeah, grab the bag if you can. Grab the bag. But what is it called? Secure the bag, sorry. Secure the bag.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
What are your thoughts here? Secure the bag.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think these multiples are not really what's going to drive their behavior. I think OpenAI is running a very strategic game plan to become part of the tech establishment as quickly as they can so that they are in the inside looking out as opposed to the outside looking in. They were able to add the former head of the NSA to their board of directors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
People got pretty... It's how you become part of the establishment. Do you think the former head of the NSA no longer has a security clearance or knows people in the NSA? No, of course not. And I think that there is a group of people that want to make sure that these kinds of technologies and capabilities are firmly within the hands of the United States apparatus and not anybody else.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And so I think that that pulls them closer to the kinds of folks that could otherwise give them a hard time, right, or regulate them, or, etc, etc. So now what happens is when you have Senate hearings about this stuff. It's more likely that it's confidential behind closed doors. It's under the purview of national security. All these things are beneficial to OpenAI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And then secondly, they were able to get Elon to drop his lawsuit. Conveniently, I think it was like on the same day that the head of the NSA was added to the board or the former head of the NSA. So
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The next logical step is now to create capital markets distribution, which is really about syndicating ownership of the company to all the big, deep pools of money so that they are also rowing in the same direction in support of open AI. And so that's what a lot of people don't get. It's not about valuations or this and that. This is about creating a high-level game theory of how to create
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
an international apparatus that supports your corporate objectives. There are a few companies that have done this well, and they are now one of them. The only thing left is to get shares into the hands of the Black Rocks, the T-Rows, all the big mutual fund apparatuses of the world that then syndicate to all the individual investors of the world. And you have everything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You have government connections. You have no real legal overhang. Then the likelihood that an IRS agent all of a sudden decides to audit OpenAI is basically zero.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't think it's cynical. It's like a smart business strategy. Strategy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
We're about to enter the endgame, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
There's an important insight here that I think people are missing, which is that Foundational models are quickly becoming a consumer surplus. Every model is roughly the same. They keep getting better and better, but they're also approaching these asymptotic returns. And what do you do when something approaches an asymptotic return?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You need to change a key underlying variable that you use to build these models. And it looks like one of those variables that people are looking at is how you basically take the internet, not as raw data, but then you actually kind of refine it and refine it some more and then use that as the basis of learning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And what that does is it drives up model costs to a degree that are probably untenable for most companies except but for a few. So I think it was Dario Amadei, the CEO of Anthropic, who said the cost of a good functional model today is in the billions, but by 2027, it could easily approach $100 billion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The problem that that represents for Ilya's company, and I wish him the best of luck, but the reality is there isn't $100 billion for him to have. Google will find it. Microsoft will find it. Facebook will find it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
OpenAI will probably find it. Amazon will find it. But I suspect that these other startups, there just isn't that much money going into AI because the returns don't justify it. So I think the bigger problem that you have is that it's becoming an arms race. It's not dissimilar actually to ride sharing. When people saw Uber's success, they thought, well, this is simple.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And it was, but you had to subsidize losses for decades before that company was profitable. But meanwhile, you had to starve all of these other companies that were funded to compete with Uber until they ran out of money and died. I think that you could make a claim that the AI foundational model market will look similar to that. One startup... can probably win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
But there will be a bunch of open source alternatives. They're all asymptotically similar. And so it's an arms race on cost and compute. And I just don't see VCs having the temperament and the wherewithal to fund hundreds of billions of dollars into multiple companies to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Microsoft has been bundling products to kill competitors for 40 years. The 10 years that they didn't do it was the 10 years when Steve Ballmer was in charge, during which there was a legal document between Microsoft and the Justice Department, a consent decree, that prevented them from doing it. That consent decree came to be because of this exact strategy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And the most famous example that was the tail end of that process was when they used Internet Explorer and they bundled it with Microsoft Windows and they killed Netscape, right? So there's umpteen examples of this. So I think that they've gone back to their old playbook. It's a playbook that you have to remember the executives that run Microsoft have been there for 30 and 40 years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
They know this play and they know that it works and they've been rewarded incredibly handsomely by the public markets. So they're going to keep doing it. Would Slack have sold to Salesforce? Now, look, I'm not complaining. It was a $27 billion acquisition. But the question is, if it were allowed to compete feature for feature, Could it have beat Teams? Possibly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Would the board have made, and I was on the board of Slack, a decision to have tried? Possibly. But none of those options were on the table. Because when you see a product, it doesn't matter how inferior it is, get bundled in, it's kind of DOA. And then you're on a melting iceberg. And so you have to make a very quick decision to preserve enterprise value.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So I think what this comes down to is the FTC and the DOJ need to dust off that old consent decree, read it, and figure out whether this makes sense again. It seems like folks in the EU have more recently read that consent decree than American regulators have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Let me just start by saying that President Biden is a person that's given up his whole life to work on behalf of America in the best way that he thought was possible. He's overcome a lot of tragedies. I think he's worked very hard. He's diligently tried to do what he thought was right on behalf of the people of Delaware and then the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Commodities have finite shelf lives, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You can't rip it out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Enterprises don't think that way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't think we're debating that. I think what we're debating is the sales practice where Microsoft says, well, you need Office, you need Windows, and you need 365, or sorry, Active Directory. Well, if you'd like all of these things, we're gonna give you this product for free as well, and they're going to be tightly integrated. Then when you go to Slack, You have to pay more.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And then you think to yourself, well, how do I go back to my CFO and say, I need an extra $1.2 million a year for this enterprise license to Slack? And then people say, well, it's- That's my point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think you're missing something here, Friedberg, which is like, what happens then when, let's just say Slack, there wasn't a suitor for Slack. Okay, let's take the internet browser example because I think it's better. If you didn't have a multi-hundred billion dollar company prop up a product because they just felt like it, i.e.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Chrome and Google, you would have had Microsoft run away with the core interface for the internet. We don't know how that would have turned out. So by luck... We've had some modicum of consumer choice, but it's not as if Firefox did well. Firefox went to basically irrelevancy. Netscape went to zero.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So there are examples where when Microsoft has done this, they can starve the market of choice over long periods of time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So if your whole point is, well, let's just bet on the largesse of other large companies, that's a bad bet. But I will show you multiple counterexamples.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Again, you're talking about the largest of companies. You're talking not about competitive practices. Find me, venture-funded people, risk-taking people who need a return on investment. Google is the worst example. They have the most indiscriminate forms of spending. I'm not saying that they shouldn't be allowed to.
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My honest takeaway is that that person, though, is no longer really in charge. And I think that that was very troubling for me. And it actually makes the last sort of six months make a lot more sense. So I thought the fact that we could not get a response from the White House to be, I took it a little bit actually personally.
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No, that's not a counterexample.
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The point of a healthy product environment and market is not that one incumbent and another incumbent can create their own crappy versions. It's that you could theoretically have An open market where somebody can be funded with nominal amounts of capital and compete effectively, that isn't possible in many markets in software because of these kinds of strategies.
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So what you're reduced to are these huge companies with this product sprawl. I don't think those are good products. And I think we're lying to ourselves to say that they are. Google Meet is a terrible product, okay? So whatever they're competing with is a terrible alternative.
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And if you try to find a real competitor to build an alternative to it, they're not able to get funded because the venture investor says, no, I can't. And that's the market power that stifles competition. That's what this is about.
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Let's fund it. Let's go after it. I don't think there's a single person.
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The Zoom example is a terrible one. And the reason is that P&L would have a hole blown on the side of it if they did not have 90% of their R&D and OPEX in China. But for the grace of God and Eric's strategic thinking, they were able to survive. But that is a perfect example of a company that would absolutely not have existed had they not had a labor arbitrage.
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That is not the basis of a competitive and fair market. And you cannot expect people going off to all far corners of the world and trying to do all these gymnastics to viably compete against a Microsoft and a Google.
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I think the interesting thing with Adobe is that they have a product suite that's used in a narrow field. I think what Sax is saying is Adobe is about a sort of vertical system of record.
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I think what the thing about Microsoft and you could probably say about Google is, but less so, but definitely for Microsoft is they are these very horizontal, broad, amorphous systems of record that you cannot easily replace. There aren't people running around building nine of the 19 things that Microsoft gives you in the bundle. That's the problem.
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Bundling is when you take a wrench and a can of peanut butter and put them together and run Like, here, you're going to take them both. You're like, well, I only need the wrench. Well, you're going to take the peanut butter. And they're like, well, I already have peanut butter, so I don't need to buy new peanut butter.
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I was wondering why for someone that had been such an ardent supporter, I couldn't even get an email back when I was consistently asking them to be on the pod. And now I see that it wasn't just one single act. It was part of a holistic strategy. It was the same strategy that boxed RFK out of the Democratic primary.
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Because could you imagine if this event had happened when he had to debate RFK in the Democratic primaries? It would have been exposed then. It's probably partly to explain how the law has been used in New York state. whether you want to call it lawful or not, but it was a very directed partisan action. And so all of these things are now three data points that are really important.
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You will not come on an open format show like ours to just speak openly. None of us were going to attack him or try to corner him or box him in. You prevented other people from actually challenging you and directly asking questions of you in the Democratic primaries. And then you try to put political pressure on your opponents.
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All of that is systematically about a group of people that are unelected who are trying to control democracy. And I think that that's the most troubling takeaway from this. I don't think that you should take away from last night that Joe Biden had a bad debate.
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I think what we should take away is that there is a person who should be allowed to transition into the sunset and be celebrated for what he's done, and instead there are people that, frankly, at the margins are acting pretty unethically and at the limit is actually acting somewhat diabolically to prop this person up so that they can keep power.
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For example, you've been in situations where you would expect the team that runs a company to be able to stand up and say the CEO is not in a position to run this company anymore. That's what you would expect if there's good governance and honesty. You know, what was Ron Klain doing, as an example, when he was doing debate prep?
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Did he legitimately believe that Joe Biden was prepared for this or mentally capable of actually doing this? And the fact that they are allowing his legacy to be destroyed after 50 years, I think, is really tragic.
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Satire sucks is into the chat.
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You're saying the media and the Democratic Party leadership are lying to America.
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Do you think there was a cover up freebreak? What is your intuition on that?
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Daszak, yeah.
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What is Threads?
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What's your take on this? I would like to make four points, I think, that kind of summarize my view of this. I think what happened here needs a really clear accounting because the implications are far greater than I think people realize. And I think why maybe the four of us have always been tugging on this little thread is because each of us instinctively understood that. So
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The first is, if you just look at the macro economic consequences of what COVID did and our reaction, we broke the seal. of having absolutely no accountability on massive spending, right? So there are subsidies, there are kickbacks, there are government programs that now number in the trillions of dollars a year incremental to what we were going to spend if things were the status quo.
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And the problem is that, and Freeberg has talked about this really eloquently in the past, it's creating a massive debt issue that us and our children and our grandchildren are going to have to deal with. If we had responded to this pandemic differently, those issues would not have occurred.
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If we had just kept the economy open because we understood what was going on, we would not have reacted the way that we did, and we would not have nearly as much debt as we had, and we would not have made it okay for politicians to spend trillions of dollars. That is a direct consequence of our reaction to COVID, not COVID itself.
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The second is we caused billions of people all around the world to take immaturely tested drugs. They were called vaccines. We found out that they were modestly effective at best. And then some of them were designed in some ways to manipulate our DNA, and we just don't know what the long-term impacts will be. We see some small issues of myocarditis. We see other issues of all-cause mortality.
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But the point is, we just don't know. And that would not have happened had we not rushed to force people to stand in a line and get a jab in order to get back to their normal life. That was a direct consequence, not of COVID, but of a reaction. The third is what we're realizing right now is that we had this power drunk apparatchik.
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And this is similar to the quote that Mike Pompeo made when he took over the CIA and What he found, and he said this after when he left, was there were people on the top floor of the CIA building, the seventh floor of the Pentagon, that fundamentally believed that it wasn't the Democrats nor the Republicans that ran the country, but it was them.
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And I see a similar level of arrogance here, which is this belief that they know better. And so what they did was they committed the greatest sin, which is where the coverup is way greater than the crime. And they created a setup where all of these things were amplified by their prestige, their perceived scientific knowledge,
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But what they were really doing was keeping critical information to themselves and then trying to cover it up, Jason. That is so unacceptable when you think of the broad consequences of what happened. And that's what needs to get documented. And I do think there needs to be some form of accountability for that.
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Trillions. Tens of trillions.
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I am infuriated by this. Imagine what happened in the Situation Room or the equivalent, wherever the President of the United States, all these world leaders were... coalescing to try to make decisions in that period, they all looked at this quote unquote expert. They pointed at Fauci and said, lead us out.
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And so do we not think that at any point he was thinking, how do I do this in a way where I have no fingerprints? Clearly the answer is, in fact, he was leading from a position of how will I not have any fingerprints on this? And so did we get the best advice? On the margin, I think it's pretty fair to say we could not have gotten it because he was too conflicted.
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He was figuring out how to cover up what happened as opposed to just own it and then help the world get out of it.
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This is nutty.
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There are examples we know. I'll just point to two. Let's just say the attempted overthrow of the Ukrainian government in 2014.
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You can go back to Iran-Contra as yet another example, and you can add gain-of-function research now, which is, again, I'll just go back to when there are these lifelong bureaucrats that believe they're above the law, that there's this sensation that they can pull the levers of power silently behind the scenes because they know better.
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And then what they're doing, as you guys said, is they are controverting the desires of the people. So whether you like President Obama or not, he's duly elected by the people. And when he says this isn't allowed, it shouldn't be allowed. And when you instantiate chaos and wars and all of this other stuff, overthrows and all of these other places that then create all these long tail effects,
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they're not done with really America support. They're done by a small group of people who think they know better. And I think that we've created that kind of a problem that needs to get fixed. And so I think that this has to be an example where you can make them an example, because otherwise it will keep happening.
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We did it for Dean Phillips.
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And there are other parts of the American bureaucracy where people are in charge of very critical and important decisions. And I suspect 99% of them are good, earnest, honest people doing the right thing for America. But it's just the law of large numbers. There will be one or two, and all it takes is one or two who get drunk with that power.
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Chris Christie came on. And Chris Christie came on, although I don't think we technically did a fundraiser, but we would have. And we've asked President Biden, and we have not heard back.
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And so unless that there's a check and balance on that dynamic, we'll have more issues of this. And as the world gets more sophisticated and we rely more on experts, I hate to say this, guys, but you have to be more skeptical of experts. As much as you think an expert is an expert, you have to fight the tendency of saying, I'm going to abdicate all of my intellect onto you and you decide.
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I think you have to find a way of just gut checking. And Sacks said this critical thing. If I was the president of the United States in a pandemic, I didn't need the COVID to teach me this example. But if I'm trying to solve a very technical and hard engineering problem, what I always do is I bring a cross section of people in a room
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Typically, some of them have to have disagreeing opinions and I make them intellectually fight it out. And my job is to observe. And in that, I apply my judgment. I'm not nearly as smart as them. I'm not nearly technically as trained as them, but that is a process that works.
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And I'm just questioning, it couldn't have happened here because as Zach said, if you basically bury the reputations of the folks that are pushing back, you could never bring them inside the room in the Oval. and have a conversation with them and say, hey, Jay, Bhattacharya, give us the red team version of what you think is happening. And that is a real problem.
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And Chamath, would you host a fundraiser for Biden as well as Trump? Absolutely. Look, here's the thing. I am an apolitical person who has to make a difficult decision every four years. And I think most of us are like that. I don't think it's so easy to wake up in the morning and say, oh, I'm clearly a Republican or I'm clearly a Democrat. There's parts of both sides that appeal to me.
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We talk about term limits for politicians. Maybe we actually need term limits for the administrative apparatchik that runs all these critical organizations.
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And so you have to make these reasoned decisions. And then that gets even more complicated, right? So the most important thing for me is get as many people on in a position to tell their version of the truth So that you can see an unfiltered version of that truth and decide for yourself. So I was really blown away when I heard Dean Phillips and Bobby.
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President Trump was really onto this because he's the one that really coined the term the deep state and went after it. And if you think about the other side, right, the people that are there,
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It must be very discomforting to hear because a lot of those people are folks that worked hard, tried to go to good schools, get educated, and join an infrastructure to move a country forward because they believe in the country and the values of America. It sounds like a noble mission, right? But over long periods of time...
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Most people come and go, and then there's a small cohort of folks that sort of end up ossifying and running the top parts of this permanent bureaucracy. And I think Sachs is right. They start to observe just the simple principle that all these folks come and go, yet I'm still around. President comes, president goes. Undersecretary comes, undersecretary goes.
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The secretary of this comes and then they go. And so they start to believe that they're really in charge. And that's where the deep state idea comes from.
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They're not wrong. Their intuition is right.
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I'd call it evil because it was premeditated. And then, look, the point is we're supposed to have this check and balance from the media. But when the media is complicit because they like to be in those halls of power, that's where these feelings come from. I think the latest stat that I saw is I think more than 52% of Americans now believe that the mainstream media is untrustworthy.
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And that's a really terrible place to be, which means you're basically- Where do you get truth? You're consuming something that's just fundamentally not true.
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Live streamed on YouTube. We'll put the link in the show notes.
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And I thought there's parts of both of those platforms that I agree with. There's parts that I disagree. And the same thing happened when I sat down with Vivek. I thought that I wouldn't agree with much. I ended up agreeing with a lot. There's a lot of stuff that Trump in hindsight, again, as I've said before, that he did, which was really helpful to America. And one big thing, which had he done,
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I thought it would be good to talk about crypto for a couple of reasons. One is because we just had the halving at the end of April. When did that happen? The halving is where, just for folks that don't know, the way that Bitcoins are created is by solving these complex mathematical algorithms that take a lot of time and energy and money. And when you solve it, you get rewarded.
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with some number of Bitcoin. And roughly every four years, that reward gets cut in half. It's called a halving. And this week, I saw somebody who reminded me all of this. And I just want to give this guy a proper shout out. So his name is Wences Casares. And Wences, in Silicon Valley, I would say, really was agent zero of Bitcoin. He was the one in 2010 that introduced it to me.
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I remember he reminded me of the story. Actually, we were at Orens Hummus And he's like, he's Argentinian. He's a Greek. So I'm going to try to copy his accent. You have to buy the Bitcoin. So I heard the story. I fell in love with it. I remember I called my family office. I'm like, buy me a million of these things. And he was like, or a million dollars worth. And he was like, are you crazy?
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And I was like, no, there's just a little appetizer. We'll get to the main course. Anyways, he has done a phenomenal job of understanding and proselytizing Bitcoin. And I want to thank him because he really put me onto this. But he mentioned something to me when I saw him a couple of days ago, which is you should really look at the pattern of Bitcoin after a halving. And so I was really curious.
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And so I had a guy on my team, Quinton, put this together. So Nick, let's go to the first page. So why is this interesting? So here's a little Bitcoin price analysis for you guys. So there's been a couple of halving cycles that have happened. And I asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a halving.
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I smell an intro. Tell us, J. Cal, what was the week like? What kind of week have you had? What kind of week have you had? Incredible.
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three months, six months, nine months, 12 months, and 18 months after a halving. And what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a Bitcoin halving, people are sort of reassessing what's happening and they're trying to figure it out. That's sort of what I would say happens in the first month and roughly what also happens in the first three months.
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But then within six months to a year and 18 months of these things, there are these crazy price appreciation cycles that happen. So that's what this page shows, which is 18 months after the first halving, the Bitcoin price returned 45X. After the second halving, it returned almost 28X.
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And after this third halving, it returned almost an 8X, which is really incredible returns in such a short period of time. If you go to the next page. And so if you graph that, this is what it starts to show, which is what is this price performance after each of these halving cycles. Now, why is that interesting?
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Well, it's interesting because on top of this having, which theoretically, if history is a guide, we should see some price appreciation. Obviously, the other thing that's happened is we've commercialized Bitcoin. And we talked about this sort of as my big prediction for 2024, which is these ETFs are really going to allow Bitcoin to cross the chasm and have its sort of central key moment, right?
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frankly, sets up our children, which is these hundred-year bonds and defraying the cost of all of this indebtedness far out into the future. So there's many things. And I think there's things that Biden has done that I think we'll look back and say, those were good things that he did. And then there are things in the future or today that I think that we could disagree with as well.
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Yeah. And so if you apply the averages, and again, these are just averages, they're by no means predictions. Okay, so I just want to qualify that. These are just- This is not financial advice. It's not financial advice.
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We took these and we applied it to the price of Bitcoin. And if you go to the next page, you start to see what could happen If you just take the average of the last few cycles, because the first cycle was so extreme, and you start to apply- Oh, so you're just doing cycle two and three here, to be clear.
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Just the averages of cycle two and three, and what you start to see is some really meaningful appreciation. And when I talked to Wences about this, how he explained it, which makes a lot of sense to me, is there are a lot of countries- that will never look at Bitcoin credibly, even if they support it. The US may be one of those.
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But there is an increasing body of countries that will become dual currency. And they will look at their local currency, and then they will look at Bitcoin. And they will say both of these two things are needed. One, when you're transacting on a daily basis for random goods and services.
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And two, when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value, you'll use something like BTC. And I think that's a very powerful concept. And if you look at what this price chart could indicate, is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation, it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets.
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And I think if you marry that with this worry that some folks have about dollar debasement, you start to see some really interesting opportunities. So I just thought that this was a Interesting thing that he... Here's our disclaimer. Interesting thing that he put me on. I thought I'd share that with you. I'll publish this on Twitter, but that's your crypto corner for the year, folks.
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It's the biggest lobby in America.
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So the point is, I would like this place to be a place where impartiality rules, where we can be on all sides of an issue and just decide what makes the most sense after looking at the facts. And I would like, four years from now, every major political candidate for president to look at All In as the first place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Did you guys hear this rumor that SBF was going to put a billion dollars into the election and convince Tom Brady to run as a Republican? And give, no, give the billion to Trump. Oh, sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It's hard to quantify. If young people show up, it could be 500 basis points. I mean, young people do not show up to vote because there isn't an issue that they care about. Correct. But there's 50 million Americans that own crypto. 50, 5-0. Okay. So if 10% of them are like, let's say that's their single issue, that's 5 million votes. No, no, no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
There's a plausible case where 40 million of those folks show up because you're talking about a structural part of their wealth creation, right? So for example, like, you know, Biden, President Biden talked about giving people a headstart by eliminating their debt. That's a narrow issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And the reason it's a narrow issue, there's just as many people that don't have debt and just as many people that paid off their debt, and it creates a lot of haves and have-nots, right? And there's all these rules around who will get the debt relief, et cetera. You end up touching four or five million people maximum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
But if there are 50 million people who have now decided to have at least a hedge against the establishment and the traditional financial system, and you are threatening to take that wealth away, I could see how 80% of those folks show up to the ballot box and say, all right, which one of you will just leave me alone?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And if the answer is President Trump, then they're all going to vote for President Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Never.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And I think if we can earn that trust and have the integrity to allow all sides to tell a fair story, that is gonna be a really powerful thing and an artifact to leave behind for people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I think that if you look at what happened before, we had A cycle where very large monolithic software was replaced by these SaaS vendors and Salesforce led that charge and they led the, in many ways, the definition of the cloud. So that was amazing. That was this one big cycle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And before that, that monolithic, those monolithic software vendors were replacing like mainframes and very archaic stuff. This is sort of this third disruptive cycle. We're going to go through a process of ripping and replacing these legacy products. And so Gen AI is just an enablement layer that allows you to deliver functionality to people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And I think what you're going to find is that it allows you to deliver that functionality at much, much cheaper. To your point, that's the whole point of 80-90. We always joke, is Salesforce going to get 80-90? Yeah, because you can deliver 80% of the features at a 90% discount pretty easily today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And what you can't deliver today will get much, much easier in a year and two years and three years, for sure in 10 years. So I think what the market is voting with their dollars is that these large, lumpy, monolithic software companies that need big $50, $100 million customers
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
They're not going to find them soon because those customers will realize that you could get, you know, what Freeberg said, what you need for 10 million or 5 million or 1 million or 500,000 and in some cases free. And so the cost structure of your organization makes no sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And so you're going to have to go through this very complicated cycle of recycling, you know, the business model, which unfortunately will mean tons of layoffs. That's not a today thing. But over these next five and 10 years, that's probably what's going to happen. And it doesn't mean Salesforce is a bad company. It's just that it is on the wrong side of the lifecycle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And the odds are overwhelmingly such that a bunch of small companies will flood this opportunity and provides cheaper, smaller, more flexible capabilities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I don't think that that explains a 20% drop in a day. I think typically these public market investors internalize a bunch of fears and they don't execute on those fears. And then when given an opportunity, they just barf it all out because it's like now it's acceptable. And so to your point, David, like it was such like a
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
an insignificant revenue miss so as to not even be important, quite honestly. But the reason it's down 20% is I think folks have internalized a different set of risks, and then they've found an escape hatch where they have plausible deniability for selling.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
We talked about this last week because this number's fake.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Incredible, right? Incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Chamath, your take. I think that if you went into this looking to confirm your hatred of President Trump, you were the one that was given red meat. And I think that if you were undecided or... pro-President Trump, you probably found more reason to support him for all the reasons that Friedberg said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
The thing that's unique about this specific trial that I found rather interesting was the diversity of people who just couldn't understand what this trial was about, whether it was Bill Barr, who worked for him but was not a huge fan of his, nor was Trump a or vice versa, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
To an Alan Dershowitz, to a Cyrus Vance, you had Democrats and Republicans and independents, legal scholars, legal experts, some who liked president Trump, some who did not, some who got along with him, some who did not, some who fought with him, some who did not, some who got fired by him, some who did not. And they were all categorically confused about what this whole thing was about. I'm not,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
We've said this before, but, you know, in the end, what do you have? You have your family, you have your children, you have your friends, and hopefully you have work that gives you some purpose. And in all of that, if there are random people that are judging you for one thing, they'll eventually judge you for another thing. And that is not a path to any sort of contentment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
legally well-versed enough to understand what it was. So as a layman, you then tend to go to this next obvious thing, which is you have to bucket this decision as here are some experts and what they know is better than what I know. And we talked about this earlier on the pod today when it came to Fauci and it turned out to not be so true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Or you go to this other place where are there systems of government that can be convoluted and turned in the favor of the majority who's in power against someone that they feel is a threat. And we've talked about that as well with respect to how some of these governmental institutions have targeted some of our friends.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
So I think that we're in a very precarious moment where the systems of governments in the United States are a little bit more fragile than they were the moment before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
What was the second crime, J. Cal, if you understand the case at all?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I've donated to Bobby Kennedy. I've donated to the Democrats massively. And I'll donate to Donald Trump. And if there's an opportunity to talk to President Biden and really understand where he's at, I donate to him as well. And so the point is that I would like to be an organizing principal. And I would like to replace...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
You're a famous, successful person. Over the next 10 or 20 years, the odds are pretty good you'll be more famous and more successful. Say more, Chema. Do you feel the less, the same, or more? You have to say less, same, or more. If somebody in government doesn't like what you're up to, after today, are you less the same or more successful?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
in terms of the risk that the laws could be used to fight you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Today, the places that I don't trust to organize and give unfiltered access to knowledge. And those things are the mainstream media. And so I'm willing to put my resources behind being that organizing principle. And I think having a broad cross-section of friends who have different political beliefs is actually a useful thing for a lot of these candidates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And that's the only way you could get her from a misdemeanor to a felony. Yeah. Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Because as it turns out, most people are sort of in the middle. And most people in any given election can be persuaded one way or the other. So the most important thing that we could do is get all of them, give all of them an opportunity to really tell an unfiltered version of their truth and then let the chips fall where they may. That is the right thing to do for America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
This is unsustainable, guys. I've been saying this now for a month. So let's just be precise again. You cannot spend this kind of money and show no incremental revenue potential. So while this is incredible for NVIDIA, the chicken is coming home to roost. Because if you do not start seeing revenue flow to the bottom line of these companies that are spending $26 billion a quarter,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
The market cap of NVIDIA is not what the market cap of NVIDIA should be. And all of these other companies are going to get punished for spending this kind of money. Now, Dell is a unique example in the sense that I actually think it's a beneficiary of spend.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And I think that it will build data centers and it will actually do well in the move to AI because it's a very smartly positioned pick and shovels provider. But the threshold question is, where are all these newfangled things that we're supposed to see that justifies $100 billion of chip spend a year, $200 billion of energy spend, $100 billion of all this other stuff?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Guys, we're now spending $750 billion. This is on the order of a national... transfer payment and we've seen nothing to show for it except that you can mimic somebody's voice and you can make like a cat jump on another cat i mean making a developer 30 or 40 percent more efficient that's actually legit but i will say that hasn't happened yet either No, that's totally happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
That's what democracy means. So this kind of like cajoling and bullying in either side, I find really distasteful and I find very immature.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I think that developers can go faster with these tools. But these are, yes, but these are aspirational things. When you take a, for example, a 30,000 person company. It is not true that those engineers now are now all of a sudden as productive as 130,000 employees. It's not even true that a thousand employee company is as productive as a 4,000 person company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And the reason is for one very specific thing. Even as all of these next generation models get released, the practical threshold problem is when you introduce a completely new way of doing things into an existing workforce, what happens is people push back. And even in the companies that I own where I could theoretically mandate, you must use these tools because I am the owner of this company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It doesn't happen. And so I think what you're really seeing, Jason, is a few people embrace it. Those people may be 50 to 100% more productive. But when you blend that into the entire workforce, it's still a single digit percentage, which means the overall productivity gains are nominal. Yet you're being forced to spend, again, $750 billion a year. It doesn't all hang together yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
You get around the innovators dilemma by saying, guys, you need to be AI first. from the outset, which a startup can do because they can recruit people that, for example, with 80-90, same thing. You must use these tools. For example, we are not allowed to have any administrative staff. Everything is done by an agent or workflow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
But that's because we're a new company and we can make those decisions. But somebody who is at an established company, I suspect that these gains are nominal at best, yet the spend is outrageous. And when it catches up with you when you report,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I think the thing that hasn't happened yet is we haven't actually now started to talk about the contours of a handful of policy things where there is some deep diversion now, where these candidates are diverging from each other. And I think that that's going to be really interesting to see how much people value that differentiation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I'll give you an example, which is President Trump in the last few weeks has become incredibly pro-crypto. Now, the contours of that I think we need to define, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
But the question is, is a pro-crypto environment, especially in a world where we think that there's just going to be continued dollar debasement, an important issue, an unimportant issue, or a thing that is a small issue today, but that will be critical for us in 20 and 30 years to get right? That's an example.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And there's a handful of these other things that I think that now we have a chance to really double click on where there really is some differentiation amongst the three presidential candidates. And I think that's healthy as well. And so it's important, again, get their specific thoughts on the record so that we can really figure this out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And I think that over these next few months, I think it's going to be important to do that. So I hope President Biden also comes on the pod, quite honestly, and allows us to ask him the hard questions. And I hope Bobby comes back on, actually. And I think Bobby will if we ask him just to tighten up where he's at now a few months.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I'm excited. I'm really excited for President Trump to come on the podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
What did you think of Elon's first lawsuit, and then he dropped it, and then he refiled? Where do you think he's coming from?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
But why do you think he would have dropped it and then refiled? Where do you think that comes from? Is there new information, do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Before we move to politics, I just wanted to actually ask you about inflection. So is it still running? Yeah. And so what basically happened, there was like some transfer payment from Microsoft and a couple of the people like, and then it seems like whatever that deal was, a little bit seems to have been copied by Google when they did this character AI thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
So just trying to get a sense from you, are these deals to structurally avoid FTC scrutiny in terms of the building blocks of it? Or how did you think about it? And what is the pattern and the trend on these things?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I'm sorry, Pi is the inflection AI product.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Reid, were you surprised that then the first target where there was like some successful antitrust pushback was against Google versus Apple? And then second, do you think that there's a chance, like a meaningful chance that the government tries to break Google up? Or do you think it looks something maybe more similar to what happened to Microsoft?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yeah, exactly. Reid, I have a question. A few weeks ago, you said something to the effect very publicly that you had had a one hour or multi hour lunch with Biden. And he just seemed like super on his game. And then he was kind of dumped. Was that just a moment in time where he was really great with you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Or how do you reconcile that with Pelosi and all of these other folks and what happened to Biden?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Do you think that they should have run an open primary after that? And would Kamala have won an open primary?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Do you want to address that, Reid? Because I think there was a rumor that you were funding some of these lawsuits to keep him off the ballot or whatever. Have you spent any money to try to impact RFK one way or the other?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Reid, I have a question for you. It's more of a statement, actually. Maybe I'd just love to get your reaction. One of the most divisive issues that we have right now is people's position on October 7th, Israel, Palestine. There is a sense that there's a growing kind of like virulent strain of anti-Semitism in America. A lot of people point to the extreme left as where that's really gestating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
There was thoughts that Josh Shapiro would have been an exceptional candidate, but one of the large reasons why he was not really meaningfully considered was his religion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I just want you to comment on the broad issue and whether you see it in the Democratic Party, whether you see it in the Republican Party, whether you see it at all, just give us a sense of where we stand culturally on this issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I think I'm going to try to keep my hair long. Let's see what happens.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I'll tell you why. I think that both the Republicans and the Democrats have realized that there's actually very little difference on a lot of the major things that they actually talk about. So what they're both being forced to do is realize that because the centrality of a bunch of the things they say are the same, they each have to go to their flanks to get the N plus one vote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And so Kamala goes to the left and spouts all this stuff that seems Marxist or socialist or communist because she has to get those people to vote for her. Ultimately, I think what ends up happening is most of the stuff in the middle has a decent chance of happening. The stuff at the fringes, I think they get put up, sacks almost as like a sacrificial lamb.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
A good example, I think, is like all of this stuff that's happening with the student loan reform. A half a trillion dollar plan, it gets shot down by the Supreme Court. This new plan, another hundred billion dollars. not even being heard yet by the Supreme Court. So I think they know this. I mean, it's not like the Biden administration is dumb. The Trump administration is not dumb either.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
but I do have some mineral oil.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Let me just move to one thing. So, Reid, I think this has been an amazingly robust conversation. And I think you, as always, as long as I've known you now for 20 years, have been really intellectually honest. I want to ask you a favor, which is, can you stay for 10 extra minutes and talk with us to Bobby Kennedy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And the reason I want you to do that is I think that there is a bunch of misinformation. I asked you about these things. I think it's important to hear maybe from Bobby and just for him to know what you said, because I do think it's important to hear it from the horse's mouth. Can you just give us like five, 10 minutes so that we can do that? Because I think it would be an important thing to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
So when is that? No, just right now. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Bobby, let me ask you a question. I just want to go back a little bit because I just want to make sure I heard it properly. When Cali called you Was it to be the VP on the Trump ticket? And did you, was that asked and did you consider it? And why did you say no to that but then said yes to this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Every day I've showered since I've gotten back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Sorry, Bobby, keep going.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
You don't have the sea to use as a natural, you know, disinfectant and deodorant.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Let's, Bobby, let's talk about something then. Let's assume that this election goes in the direction of now your preferred direction, which is Donald Trump wins. What role would you play? And what is your agenda? What is it that you want to accomplish? And explain, make America healthy again in that context, maybe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
But would you be a secretary in that administration? Would you be a special advisor?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Exfoliant also.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I think what Bobby says rings true in the way that I live my life and I just see it demonstrated on my own body. You're right, Jason. My wife's Italian. She runs an Italian company. She works Italian and American hours for 10 months out of the year. And for those 10 weeks, we go there and we flip schedule. But when I'm there, I'm consuming Italian produce that isn't packed in plastic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I go to a local fruit store. I go to the local fish vendor. And my body changes. And I know that because the people that see me when I get back, they always comment, oh, did you lose weight? Oh, do you look thinner or this or that? And what's interesting is I actually do a body composition before I leave and after. I've done this for seven years now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And I can tell you that my weight doesn't change that much, but my body composition is completely different. And I don't know what it is except the things that I'm putting in my body that's different. And so I see it and I'm running an A-B test every day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The fish is outrageous. But there are ways to eat at a materially lower price than there is here. And the access to the ultra-processed food is different there. You can't get the stuff. And when you do find that stuff, it doesn't have the same glycemic and metabolic load on your body.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Bobby, can you comment on when people talk about revamping the food supply, one of the things that sometimes is not allowed to be said is that focusing on organic food and produce can exclude certain communities. And so there's like this DEI filter that preferring that is almost racist in some way. Like, can you just comment on that whole vein of thinking and your thought on that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I walked here, but I had it totally unbuttoned and I thought this is completely inappropriate for Menlo Park in August. So I buttoned two buttons.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
We're seeing it in real time. In 80-90, what I'll tell you is what Sacks said is totally right. There's so many companies that have very complicated processes that are a combination of well-trained and well-meaning people and bad software. And what I mean by bad software is that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Some other third party came in, listened to what your business process was, and then wrote this clunky deterministic code, usually on top of some system of record, charged you tens or hundreds of millions of dollars for it, and then left and will support it only if you keep paying them millions of dollars a year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
That whole thing is so nuts because the ability for people to do work, I think, has been very much constrained. And it's constrained by people trying to do the right thing using really, really terrible software. And all of that will go away. The radical idea that I would put out there is I think that systems of record no longer exist because they don't need to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And the reason is because all you have is data and you have a pipeline of information. Can you level set and just explain to people what system of record is? So inside of a company, you'll have a handful of systems that people would say are the single source of truth. They're the things that are used for reporting compliance. An example would be for your general ledger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So to record your revenues, you'd use NetSuite or you'd use Oracle GL or you'd use Workday Financials. then you'd have a different system of record for all of your revenue generating activities. So who are all of the people you sell to? How are sales going? What is the pipeline? So there's companies like Salesforce or HubSpot, SugarCRM.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Jason, are you okay?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Then there's a system of record for all the employees that work for you, all the benefits they have, what is their salary? This is HRIS. So the point is that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The software economy over the last 20 years, and this is trillions of dollars of market cap and hundreds of billions of revenue, have been built on this premise that we will create the system of record, you will build apps on top of the system of record, and the knowledge workers will come in and that's how they will get work done. And I think that Sachs is right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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This totally flips that on its head. Instead, what will happen is people will provision an agent and roughly direct what they want the outcome to be. And they'll be process independent. They won't care how they do it. They just want the answer. So I think two things happen. The obvious thing that happens in that world is systems of record lose a grip
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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on the vault that they had in terms of the data that runs a company. You don't necessarily need it in the same reliance and primacy that you did five and 10 years ago. That'll have an impact to the software economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the second thing that I think is even more important than that is that then the atomic size of companies changes because each company will get much more leverage from using software and few people versus lots of people with a few pieces of software. And so that inversion, I think, creates tremendous potential for operating leverage.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, what I'm saying is, has the money been wired and the docs been signed?
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How is that different from how this clunky software is sold today? I mean, look, I don't want to take away from the quality of the company that Mark has built and what he's done for the cloud economy. So let's just put that aside. But I wish this is what we could have actually all been on stage and talked about. I told him that. When he was at the summit? I said that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Because I disagree with basically every premise of those three things. Number one, systems integrators exist today to build apps on top of these things. Why do you think you have companies like Viva? How can a $20 billion plus company get built on top of Salesforce? It's because it doesn't do what it's meant to do. That's why.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The point I'm trying to make is that's no different than the economy that exists today. It's just going to transform to different groups of people, number one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Let's talk about it next year at the summit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Love you, Mark. Who's coming to Dreamforce? Raise your hand. I want to make another point. The second point is that when you have agents, I think that we are overestimating what a system of record is. David, what you talked about is actually just an encrypted file, or it's a bunch of rows in some database, or it's in some data lake somewhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You don't need to spend tens or hundreds of millions of dollars to wrap your revenue in something that says it's a system of record. You don't need that actually. You can just pipe that stuff directly from Stripe into Snowflake and you can just transform it and do what you will with it and then report it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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through steak dinners and golf outings and all this stuff, we've sold CIOs this idea that you need to wrap it in something called a system of record. And all I'm saying is when you confront the total cost of that versus what the alternative that is clearly going to happen in the next five or 10 years, irrespective of whether any of us build it or not, It'll be deflationary.
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You just won't be able to justify it because it's going to cost a fraction of the price.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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There are open source agentic frameworks that already do Freeburg what you're saying. So it's not true that it's not been done. It's already been done. Yeah, sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It hasn't been fully implemented to replace the system of record. There are companies, I'll give you an example of one, like Mechanical Orchard. They'll go into the most gnarliest of environments. And what they will do is they will launch these agents that observe, it's sort of what I told you guys before, the IO stream of these apps and then reconstruct everything in the middle automatically.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I don't understand why we think that there's a world where customer quality and NPS would not go sky high for a company that has some old legacy Fortran system, and now they can just pay Mechanical Orchard a few million bucks and they'll just replace it in a matter of months. It's going to happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You nailed it a year ago when you were like, Oh, you mentioned some company that had like flat pricing at first, by the way, when you said that, I thought this is nuts, but you're right. It actually makes a ton of sense because if you have a fixed group of people who can use this tooling to basically effectively be as productive as a company that's 10 times as big as you,
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You can afford to flat price your software because you can just work backwards from what margin structure you want, and it's still meaningfully cheaper than any other alternative.
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Except when the renewal comes. What happens when you have to spend a billion dollars on something? And then you're going to renegotiate. Are you going to spend a billion dollars again five years from now? It just doesn't seem very likely. There's going to be a lot of hardcore negotiations going on, Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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People are going to ask for 20% off, 50% off, and people are going to have to be more competitive. That's all. I suspect Palantir's go-to-market, when they start to really scale, they'll be able to underprice a bunch of these other alternatives. And so I think that when you look at the...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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impacts and pricing that all of these open source and closed source model companies have now introduced in terms of the price per token. What we've seen is just a massive step function lower, right? So it is incredibly deflationary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So the things that sit on top are going to get priced as a function of that cost, which means it will be an order of magnitude cheaper than the stuff that it replaces, which means that a company would almost have to purposely want to keep paying tens of millions of dollars when they don't have to. They would need to make that as an explicit decision.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think that very few companies will be in a position to be that cavalier in five and 10 years. So you're either going to rebase the revenues of a bunch of these existing deterministic companies, or you're going to create an entire economy of new ones that have a fraction of the revenues today, but a very different profitability profile.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, I agree with that. My only point is that the pie can get bigger while the slices get much, much smaller.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I would like to make two semi-serious observations. Let's go. Please get us back on track. I think the first is that there's going to be a lot of people that are looking at the architecture of this conversion because if it passes muster, everybody should do it. Think about this model. Let's just say that you're in a market and you start as a nonprofit.
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What that really means is you pay no income tax. So for a long time, you put out a little bit of the percentage of whatever you earn, but you can now outspend and outcompete all of your competitors. And then once you win, you flip to a corporation. That's a great hack on the tax code.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The other way will also work as well, because there's nothing that says you can't go in the other direction. So let's assume that you're already a for-profit company, but you're in a space with a bunch of competitors. Can't you just do this conversion in reverse, become a non-profit, Again, you pay no income tax, so now you are economically advantaged relative to your competitors.
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And then when they wither and die or you can outspend them, you flip back to a for-profit again. I think the point is that there's a lot of people that are going to watch this closely. And if it's legal and it's allowed, I just don't understand why everybody wouldn't do this. Yeah, I mean, that was Elon's point as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The second thing, which is just more of like cultural observation is, and you brought up Elon, my comment to you guys yesterday, and I'll just make the comment today. It's a little bit disheartening to see a situation where Elon built something absolutely incredible, defied every expectation. And then had the justice system take $55 billion away from him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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His payment package you're referring to at Tesla. His payment package, the options at Tesla.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then on the other side, Sam's going to pull something like this off, definitely pushing the boundaries, and he's going to make $10 billion. And I just think when you put those two things in contrast... That's not how the system should probably work, I think is what most people would say.
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It's great. I mean, I loved it. He's really awesome. He's super cool. It's good to do long form stuff like this so that I can actually talk.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Someone called me, someone called me Frohman or Frohman from the 70s show. That was funny. The amount of trash talking in Rogan's YouTube comments, it's next level. It is. I mean, it is. It is the wild, wild west in terms of the comment section on YouTube.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I see that as a serious... Siri's not very good, Jekyll, and you know this because when you were driving me to the airport... We tested it and it didn't work. He tries to execute this joke where he's like, hey, Siri, send Chamath Palihapitiya a message. And it was a very off-color message. I'm not going to say what it is. It was a spicy joke. And then it's like, okay, great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Sending Linda blah, blah, blah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I was like, no, don't send that joke to her. It hallucinates and almost sends it to some woman in his contact. It would have been really damaging. It's not very good, Jason. It's not very good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think David's right that there's something that's going to be totally new and unexpected. So I agree with that part of what Freebrook says. I am still not sure that glasses are the perfect form factor to be ubiquitous. When you look at a phone, A phone makes complete sense for literally everybody, right? Man, woman, old, young, every race, every country of the world.
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It's such a ubiquitously obvious form factor. But the thing is like that initial form factor was so different than what it replaced. Even if you looked at like flip phones versus that first generation iPhone. So I do think, Friedberg, you're right, that there's like this new way of interacting that is ready to explode onto the scene.
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And I think that these guys have done a really good job with these glasses. I mean, like, I give them a lot of credit for sticking with it and iterating through it and getting it to this place. It looks meaningfully better than the Vision Pro, to be totally honest.
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But I'm still not convinced that we've explored the best of our creativity in terms of the devices that we want to use with these AI models.
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No, but do you?
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But how much of that time when you say those things Are you not near some screen that you can just project and broadcast that onto? I mean, I think it's probably... If the use case is I'm walking in the park and I need to watch TV at the same time, I don't think that's a real use case.
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15 minutes, 10 minutes. That's the definition.
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Those are all useless notifications. The whole thing is to train yourself to realize that it'll come when it comes.
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It's like Samson.
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He does not give a F. I want to be clear. I think these glasses are going to be successful. My only comment is that I think that when you look back 25 and 30 years from now, and say that was the killer AI device, I don't think it's going to look like something we know today. That's my only point.
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And maybe it's going to be this thing that Sam Altman and Johnny Ive are baking up that's supposed to be this AI-infused iPhone killer. Maybe it's that thing. I doubt that will be a pair of glasses or a phone or a pin.
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I really resonate when you talk about voice only because I think there's a part of social decorum that all of these goggles and glasses violate. And I think we're going to have to decide as a society whether that's going to be okay. And then I think when you go trekking in Nepal, are you going to encounter somebody wearing AR glasses? I think the odds are pretty low.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But you do see people today with a phone. So what do they replace it with? And I think voice as a modality is... I think it's more credible that that could be used by 8 billion people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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or a night when we were playing poker, and I've never used it again since.
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I think that's the key observation. I really agree with what you just said. It's this, it's this idea that you're just you're liberated from The hunting and pecking and tapping.
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And they can respond. So now this is the behavior change that I don't think we're fully giving enough credit to. So today, part of what Jason talked about, what I called anxiety, is because of the information architecture of these apps. That is totally broken. And the reason why it's broken is when you tell an AI agent, get me the cheapest car right now to go to XYZ place.
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It will go and look at Lyft and Uber and whatever. It'll provision the car, and then it'll just tell you when it's coming. And it will break this cycle that people have of having to check these apps for what is useless filler information. And when you strip a lot of that notification traffic away, I think you'll find that people start looking at each other in the face more often.
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And I think that that's a net positive. So will Meta sell hundreds of millions of these things? I suspect probably. But all I'm saying is if you look backwards 30 years from now, what is the device that sells in the billions? It's probably not a form factor that we understand today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The other subtle thing that's happening, which I don't think we should sleep on, is that the AirPods are probably going to become much more socially acceptable to wear on a 24 by 7 basis because of this feature that allows it to become a useful hearing aid.
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And I think as it starts being worn in more and more social environments, and as the form factor of that shrinks, that's when I really do think we're going to find some very novel use case, which is you know, very unobtrusive. It kind of blends into your own physical makeup as a person without it really sticking out. I think that's when you'll have a really killer feature.
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But I think that the AirPods as hearing aids will also add a lot. So Meta's doing a lot. Apple's doing a lot. But I don't think we've yet seen the super killer hardware device yet.
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Such a positive trend. I mean, there's so many reasons why this is good. I'll just list a handful that come to the top of my mind. The first and probably the most important is that it breaks this stranglehold that the university education system has on America's kids.
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We have tricked millions and millions of people into getting trillions of dollars in debt on this idea that you're learning something in university that's somehow going to give you economic stability and ideally freedom. And it has turned out for so many people to not be true. It's just so absurd and unfair that that has happened.
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So if you can go and get a trade degree and live a economically productive life where you can get married and have kids and take care of your family and do all the things you want to do, that's going to put an enormous amount of pressure on higher ed. Why does it charge so much? What does it give in return? That's one thought.
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The second thought, which is much more narrow, Peter Thiel has that famous saying where if you have to put the word science behind it, it's not really a thing. And what we are going to find out is that that was true for a whole bunch of things where people went to school, like political science and social science. But I always thought that computer science would be immune.
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But I think he's going to be right about that, too, because You can spend $200,000 or $300,000 getting in debt to get a computer science degree, but you're probably better off learning JavaScript and learning these tools in some kind of a boot camp for far, far less and graduating in a position to make money right away. So those are just two ideas.
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I think that it allows us to be a better functioning society. So I am really supportive of this trend.
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How do you see the differentiation the person makes, Freeberg, in doing that job versus the agent or the AI or whatever?
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This is what I'm asking you, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I buy my underwear on Etsy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yes, I do.
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They're just queuing up in my brain. I've never used that seat, but I'm going to try it now after this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You can play the harmonica? Really?
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Oh, the Ed Bradley clip, it's amazing. With Ed Bradley clip?
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Yeah, well, you know, some of those songs, I don't know how I wrote them. They just came out in... But the best part is what he says afterwards. He's like, no, but I did it once. No, but I did it once. What an incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. That's really grounding. It's really grounding.
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Thank you for bringing this up. I am not asking anybody to go listen to my interview with Rogan. But I will say this. Part of why I was so excited to go and talk to him in a long-form format was this issue of war is, I think, the existential crisis of this election and of this moment. And I really do agree with you, Freeberg.
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There is a non-trivially high probability, the highest it's ever been, that we are just bumbling and sleepwalking into a really bad situation we can't walk back from. I really hope you're wrong.
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Well, the Russia-Ukraine thing, meanwhile, still goes on. And we saw in our group chat, one of our friends posted But Russia basically said, any more attacks on our land, we reserve all rights, including nuclear response. That is insane.
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How are we here?
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I am the most... objectively scared I've ever been. And I think that people grossly underestimate how quickly this could just spin up out of control. And right now, not enough of us are spending the time to really understand why that's possible, and then also try to figure out what's the offering.
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And I think it's just incredibly important that people take the time to figure out that this is a non-zero probability. And this is probably, for many of us, the first time in our lifetime where you could really say that.
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The definition of liberalism has always been being completely against war of any kind and being completely in favor of free speech of all kinds. That's what being a liberal means. We've lost the script. And I think that people need to understand that this is the one issue where if we get it wrong, literally nothing else matters.
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And we are sleepwalking and tiptoeing into a potential massive world war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
All it takes is one big mistake. You do not get a second chance. And for me, I have become a single issue voter. This is the only issue to me that matters. We can sort everything else out. We can figure it all out. We can find common ground and reason. Should taxes go up? Should taxes go down? Let's figure it out. Should regulations go up? Should regulations go down? We can figure it out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
But we are fighting a potential nuclear threat on three fronts. How have we allowed this to happen? Russia, Iran, China. You cannot underestimate that when you add these kinds of risks on top of each other, something can happen here. And I don't think people really know. They're too far away from it. There are too many generations removed from it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
War is something you heard maybe your grandparents talk about now, and you just thought, okay, whatever. I lived it. It's not good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So I would say that when every pundit and every person in a position to do something about it says, you have nothing to worry about, you probably have something to worry about. And so when everybody is trying to tell you, everybody, that this is not a risk, it's probably a bigger risk than we think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Me think thou doth protest it too much. All right. Love you boys. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Okay, let's steel man the bear case. Yes, that's what I'm asking, please. So one would just be on the fundamental technology itself. And I think the version of that story would go that the underlying Frameworks that people are using to make these models great is well described and available in open source.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
On top of that, there are at least two viable open source models that are as good or better at any point in time than open AI. So what that would mean is that the value of those models, the economic value basically goes to zero and it's a consumer surplus for the people that use it. So that's very hard theoretically to monetize.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I think the second part of the bear case would be that specifically meta becomes much more aggressive in inserting meta AI into all of the critical apps that they control, because those apps really are the front door to billions of people on a daily basis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So that would mean WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger, the Facebook app, and Threads gets refactored in a way where instead of leaving that application to go to a chat GPT-like app, you would just stay in the app. And then the companion to that would be that Google also does the same thing with their version in front of search.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So those two big front doors to the internet become much more aggressive in giving you a reason to not have to go to ChatGPT because A, their answers are just as good, and B, they're right there in a few less clicks for you. So that would be the second piece. The third piece is that all of these models basically run out of viable data to differentiate themselves.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And it basically becomes a race around synthetic information and synthetic data, which is a cost problem. Meaning if you're going to invent synthetic data, you're going to have to spend money to do it. And the large companies, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple, have effectively infinite money compared to any startup. Hmm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And then the fourth, which is the most quizzical one, is what does the human capital thing tell you about what's going on? It reads a little bit like a telenovela. I have not in my time in Silicon Valley ever seen a company that's supposedly on such a straight line to a rocket ship have so much high-level churn. But I've also never seen a company have this much liquidity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And so how are people deciding to leave if they think it's going to be a trillion dollar company? And why, when things are just starting to cook, would you leave if you are technically enamored with what you're building? So if you had to construct the Barrett case, I think those would be the four things. Open source, front door competition.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
The move to synthetic data and all of the executive turnover would be sort of why you would say maybe there's a fire where there's all this smoke.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Use their products if you want to. Use their products if you want to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Look, there's no question that Palantir sells into the deep state, but I don't know that that makes a deep state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
No, I'm not on any team in respect of I don't really understand what you're saying there. I'm just goofing. I have shares in the company. I think it's a good investment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
One thing I want to say, none of us are at any risk of running Palantir on our servers, okay? Absolutely. CrowdStrike is running in the background of many, many companies who may not even be fully aware of it. And they were certainly surprised when all those airlines' computers went down, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So my only point is maybe you should make sure about whether you're running their products or not and then make a conscious decision whether you think that's a good idea. That's all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Sure. I just don't want to overreact or overread into one day in the market. I mean, today's up, yesterday was down. These are blips in the grand scheme of things. Even a 2% to 3% move is just not that unusual.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, that's positing a future that I don't think is going to happen, at least not anytime soon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, no, I don't really buy that. And so I think this whole idea of UBI is premature and very expensive, and it doesn't work. I mean, I think what we saw from the study, just to echo what Freeberg said, is that cash transfers don't work. We saw this in the Great Society, just handing people money doesn't solve poverty. It actually traps people in conditions of dependence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
We also saw during COVID that all those STEMI checks, it might have had a macro effect in the economy of kind of boosting the economy during what could have been a COVID depression. However, at an individual level, what did we see? We saw people quitting or quite quitting their jobs. They spent more on leisure, alcohol, and meme stocks. In other words, it wasn't tremendously productive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So I think that what we've seen in the past is just handing people money doesn't create the types of outcomes that people want.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, I think it's a combination of virtue signaling combined with, let's assume that you want to become the first AI trillionaire, and people are concerned about job loss, you're going to virtue signal in the direction of, well, let's just give everyone money. And a lot of people in power will love that because it creates a lot of dependence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So it serves the interests of tech moguls and people in the government, but I don't think it serves society.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And I think one of the most interesting data points in the study, please confirm if I get this right, but what it said is that the people who got the $1,000 a month UBI saw their incomes rise to $45,000 on average, while the control group who only got $50 a month increased their average income to $50,000. Actually, just shy of $51,000.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So the people who didn't get the larger stimmy actually genuinely bettered themselves over the course of the study, while the ones who got the 12,000 a year stayed in place. And that's kind of what you'd expect, right? Which is if you just hand people money without having to work, it doesn't motivate them to work harder. It actually motivates them to do less.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And let's say that you're in a point in your career where you need to learn, you need to get mentorship, you need to advance yourself. By giving people UBI, you could be kicking out those bottom rungs of the ladder where the work isn't necessarily that fun, but you're picking up very important skills that are gonna help you rise up in the ladder. And you're not doing-
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I was a bartender. I mean, look, these are all jobs that have dignity. I mean, I think work has dignity and you need people to start somewhere. And if you just give them the STEMI or the UBI... It demotivates them from starting their careers and you trap people at this lower level. So I just don't think you're doing anyone any favors by doing this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I wouldn't necessarily call it collaboration. I call it a market position. I mean, Fox News has carved out a powerful and profitable market niche by being the one cable news network that appeals to conservatives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Now, if, you know, let's say the more liberal members of the family like James take over and change the content and the programming to serve their own political views, they're going to lose viewership. They're going to lose their audience. It would be a foolish idea just from a business standpoint. So I think that Lachlan is the right choice. I've met Lachlan before, by the way. Nice guy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
look, I think a pretty mainstream conservative type of guy, he's clearly the right guy in the family to run this. And the siblings, I think, could really screw it up. And I'm talking about not just from a content standpoint, I'm talking about from a a revenue and profit standpoint if they take it in a different direction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I would already say that Fox News has a market position problem, which is that Rupert is very much a neocon, and neoconservatism is on the way out in the Republican Party in favor of a more populist conservatism that you see with Trump or now his running mate, J.D. Vance. Rupert and Fox waged a really strong campaign to keep JD Mance off the ticket, obviously lost that battle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Rupert fired Tucker, by far their highest rated and most profitable host ever. And it was over, again, this populism versus neoconservatism direction. So I think that Fox already has a problem where they are becoming misaligned with their audience. And regardless of what you think of the politics, that's as bad for business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
It'll be really interesting to see if Laughlin will realign things in a more populist direction, but definitely going in a liberal direction that like James or the other siblings want to go in, that would be a disaster.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, look, this clearly reshuffles the race to some degree. I don't think it's a dead heat. The polling shows that Trump is still ahead in most of the swing states. But look, Harris has more upside than Biden does because she can actually campaign. I mean, Biden clearly was a surefire loser. And that was exposed in the presidential debate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And that's why there was a total panic in the Democrat Party. After that debate, they're like, we got to get someone new. And they drove him out. I do want to just say a word about that process. Hmm. Throughout that process, remember, it started with Biden doing that Stephanopoulos interview. He said that even God Almighty won't get me out of this race. Then he said, nobody's pushing me out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I'm not going anywhere. I'm campaigning next week. He expressed that what was happening in the party was a revolt against him. And then, boom, all of a sudden, he's out. And all we really know from the public reporting is that Nancy Pelosi said, Joe, we can do this the easy way or the hard way. And he was out again, less than 24 hours after he said, I'm in and I'm campaigning next week.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And even his surrogates on the Sunday morning shows were saying that he's definitely in the race. The White House staff didn't know. His campaign staff didn't know. It kind of came out of the blue. It's a very strange process. And it happened via him just posting a photograph of a letter that was on personal stationery, not even like an official... White House memorandum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And we didn't get an update. We didn't hear directly from the president about one of the most consequential decisions of his life and of his presidency until Wednesday.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Fair enough. That was the story. But still, I mean, for us to be left in the dark wondering what was really going on for three days, it was very strange. It certainly was not what you would call a democratic process. There was no speed run primary as you wanted, Jason. There was no open convention.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
What happened is the delegates fell in line instantly, as I predicted, because I said that they would not be able to handle the chaos, that they wanted to basically fall in line immediately and end the chaos. And they fell in line behind Kamala Harris, who has never gotten even one primary vote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Who's the scariest? The scariest, the one I would pick, is Josh Shapiro. He's the governor of Pennsylvania, rising star. Look, if he can deliver Pennsylvania for the Democrats, that's powerful. Because one way for Harris to eke out a victory is...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
If Shapiro can get her Pennsylvania, and then if she sort of tacks back to appealing to the Arab and Muslim vote in Michigan, to eke out Michigan and then ekes out Wisconsin with just one point. In other words, if she can hold on to the blue wall, and then she loses the swing states that Trump is very much ahead in, like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
she can still win this election by 270 electoral votes to 268. It'd be the closest margin in presidential history. So that's the scenario. And it's probably her best path to victory is to win by one electoral vote. That's the scenario I'd be most worried about as a Republican. Now, the other candidate you hear a lot about Is Mark Kelly, the senator from Arizona, who on paper looks fantastic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
He's an astronaut. His wife was a victim of a gunshot. Moderate, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I personally don't think he is that moderate, but I think he presents as one and he's, he's made noises. He comes across as tough and comes across as, as someone who's wanted to be tougher on the border, which is a huge weakness for Harris. Yeah. If he can deliver Arizona, then he becomes a strong contender, but I'm not sure that he can. So if it were me, I'd probably go with Shapiro.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
That is shocking. That's insane. It's deranged.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And that's right. I think it's totally crazy. However, I definitely have seen people online. I mean, articles online like saying, like, is this an issue with putting Shapiro on the ticket? Now, I can't believe this is a problem for the voters of the country. However, I think if you're one of the Democratic masterminds and you're trying to engineer enough electoral votes for Harris to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Like I said, you're trying to win that blue wall. You're trying to get not just Pennsylvania, but Michigan. And the problem that Biden had and now Harris has in Michigan is that the large Arab and Muslim population of Michigan is really against the administration's support. of Israel. Now, this is why Harris just snubbed Netanyahu when he came to Washington.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So they are immediately trying to reposition that issue. And remember, the margin of error in Michigan is like 2%. So if they can win back that vote by seeming to be more progressive on the whole Israel-Gaza war, then there's a big electoral advantage for them. So I have to wonder if this is where This talk about, you know, is it an issue for Shapiro to be Jewish on the ticket or whatever?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Again, it's nuts to me that we could be even having that conversation in this country. But it's possible that that is what's going on is it's like, can you win Pennsylvania but not lose Michigan?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
When John F. Kennedy ran for president, it was a big issue that he was Catholic. I mean, you guys don't remember this, but in 1960, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah. And specifically what people asked is, would he be loyal to the United States or be loyal to the Vatican and the Pope? You know, who was his ultimate authority? And he made it really clear, look, I'm going to do what's right for the United States. And he neutralized that issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I think that what matters about Shapiro or any VP is their views and their accomplishments, their policies, and whether he's Jewish or not really is secondary. Even if your principal concern is Gaza, there are still plenty of Jews who have a wide spectrum of views on that issue. So it is nuts to me that this conversation is seriously happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, that's nice to know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
That's nice to know. There was also another unhinged tirade that he had against me a few months ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Where he was commenting in the Ukraine debate and was responding to a Ukrainian partisan who, this guy is like a propagandist for Ukraine who was embedded in the Azov battalion. People may know what that is. In any event, Paul went out of his way. The thing is, I've never met Paul Graham. I don't know him. I've never done business with him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So it's just weird to me that he has this animus and this vitriol towards me. It's hard to know exactly what this is based on. I think that part of it is that he thinks he knows what happened at Zenefits. even though he wasn't involved at all. And he's just listening to one guy who's been nursing this vendetta for many years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And then other people are speculating that there could be other things involved. I don't quite know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
What is it that you guys want to know?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, I mean, look, that whole experience was easily the worst year of my entire professional career, having to deal with that mess that he created. And look, anybody can now say anything almost 10 years later in a podcast, but the situation there was thoroughly investigated by regulators who had subpoena powers, who did extensive discovery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
They looked at everyone's emails throughout the whole company. They also interviewed something like a dozen people under oath and took witness testimony from them. And then they sanctioned him, they fined him, and they published an account of what happened. I personally think it's a huge waste of time to be like rehashing events that are almost a decade old.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
But I guess I'm being forced to by this smear campaign that he and... Paul Graham have engineered against me. If you want to know what happened, just read what the SEC said, read what the other regulators said. There was only one person who was named as being aware of the misconduct. And there was only one person who was fined and held accountable by regulators.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
In fact, he was fined more than the company. Now, if he just said, yeah, look, I learned from that mistake, and I made some mistakes, moved on, and apparently he does have a successful company, so I don't really understand why he's so bitter. He seems to have like a, you know, he's like disturbed about it. Then it would be fine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I mean, there would be no reason to be talking about this, but the guy refuses to admit that he did anything wrong, and instead he's created this elaborate story that his departure from Zenefits wasn't related to massive compliance issues. And that somehow it was related to him seeing a sales target or being the victim of a coup. That's not what happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
This was a regulatory crisis that unfolded over many months and kept getting worse and worse. And we kept discovering new compliance violations. And this created a 50-state insurance investigation that could have shut the company down. And he controlled the board. He didn't have to leave if he didn't want to. He ultimately perceived that it was in his interest to leave and let us clean it up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And then he went on to go do this other startup, which I think he was planning to do all along. So his plan worked out for him, which is he left a big mess for us to clean up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
It was miserable and obviously pretty thankless. I did it for no compensation. I did it because, like you said, I had a lot of friends who invested in the company. I just thought it was the right thing to do to do this cleanup. The lawyer said it would take two years. We managed to get it done in one year. We got a clean bill of health from regulators.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
We had to remediate all the compliance failures. When I then handed the torch to the new CEO, we had $200 million in the bank and $60 million of ARR with a clean bill of health. You know, but I didn't know I'd have this like crazy founder like lobbing bombs at me the whole time. And frankly, if I had known he was going to do this, I would have just said, listen, man, you clean up your mess.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And he would have continued playing games and stonewalling the regulators. And it would have been a much worse situation for sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, all the cloud service providers are doing extremely well. I mean, cloud is still the future of software and the cloud service providers are still growing really strongly. On Wiz, I think the most likely explanation is that they just want to keep building this as a standalone company. I think they're probably also worried that they can't get the deal through.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I like that statement. And if we were just talking about somebody who had learned their lesson, this wouldn't even be an issue. This is like events that happened a decade ago. Such a waste of our time and energy to even be talking about it. The problem is that you have people, really we're talking about Parker and Paul Graham, who are trying to smear somebody as a way to- You. Yeah, me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Look, Parker has this very complicated story, and the whole purpose of it is to exonerate himself, to basically say that he didn't engage in any wrongdoing, and somehow he was set up. Okay, it's ridiculous. I mean, I don't have that kind of power over the SEC. The SEC, they sent us a list of people they wanted to talk to. I was not on the list.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And I was like, well, wait, don't they want to talk to me? I'm the new CEO of the company. And the lawyer said, no, your discovery was clean as a whistle. They don't have any questions for you. They only want to talk to people who they saw in the discovery there was an issue. So the regulators prosecuted. They basically conducted this investigation. I had no impact over that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
The multiples that we have right now are not that insane. I mean, I think the long-term median software multiple is around a seven. So, you know, you see here the mid-growth median 7.7. We're about tracking at... the historical pre-COVID mean. And we had that really frothy, bubbly period in 2020 and 2021, and that's clearly over.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
It was a very serious issue. This was not made up. So I just think it kind of defies belief to now say that this, you know, all the regulatory compliance issues which played out over months were not an existential issue for the company. It certainly was. But look, we have better things to talk about. Do you see Ali Resnick's tweet?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, I can speak to some of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I've talked to a few people who are involved in this. Look, I think what happened is that in the wake of October 7th, there was obviously a very heated debate online. PG is on one side of that. He got into it as supporters of Israel on the other side. They accused him of saying anti-Semitic things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
He took offense to that and basically went over their heads to their bosses of a couple of different VC firms, at least two that I know of, where he basically went to the heads of these firms to express his displeasure, I guess, with these exchanges. And I think the feeling on the part of the junior VCs, because the people he was going over the heads of were not senior partners or whatever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
These were lower level to mid-level VCs at firms, you can understand how they would receive that. The head of YC is going over- Yeah, Paul Graham is a giant, yeah. Yeah, so he's basically going to the heads of their firm to seek a correction in their behavior, even though this wasn't like a workplace activity. And so they certainly felt intimidated and silenced by that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, clearly there's a double standard here because PG doesn't like being called names on Twitter. Yeah. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
He doesn't like his use being labeled, and he's willing to take those debates offline, go over the heads, not talk to the people who said those things, but then go to their bosses, the heads of their firm, maybe not threaten them, maybe not say, I don't think he said fire this person or whatever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
But like you said, there's always an implication of retaliation because people understand the way that YC operates. And certainly those junior level VCs experienced it as a form of intimidation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, it's also like rather hypocritical when he's super sensitive about this type of thing. But then he's instigating this pylon when on this whole Zenefits thing, he's basically single source from a disgruntled founder who has this vendetta, who's been nursing this thing for years. He's never talked to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Like I said, he's never even met me, but he's willing to call me the most evil person in all of Silicon Valley. And then again, instigate this pile on with like all these other people from Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, exactly. And then I saw like other people from YC, like Michael Siebel, who I think is actually a really cool guy. He's awesome. Yeah. Yeah. And then he's tweeting that like I somehow I put up my founders who were there were a lot of founders who basically spoke up. And I actually said, including many founders who came out of YC, say, you know, actually, David's been a great VC to us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And he's saying, oh, Saks must have put them up to it. No, I never asked anybody to do that. And a good reason why is I don't want to trouble my founders. Or drag them into this. Drag them into it. So I'm not going to make them do that. So I had nothing to do with that. But frankly, you know, old saying that every accusation is a confession. Uh-huh.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Maybe the reason why people at YC think that I might have done that is because that's kind of their playbook, is they create these online mobs. But what gives him the right to do that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Go for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I mean, I don't know if it's still growing at 100%, but I mean, I guess they're projecting... Even 50%, yeah, would be... Yeah, they're projecting a billion in ARR next year up from, what is it, roughly 500%. like that offer may not be that crazy. Again, you know, you're getting 10 times at a 30% average growth rate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So, you know, let's say they get to a billion in ARR next year and then they're forecasting, you know, whatever it is the year after, you know, the 23 may be reasonable. So I can see why these guys would just want to go for it if they think they're building a big standalone company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Wet your feet. We need to get merch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I don't have a lot to say about them, except actually this is that that company has some murky connections to the deep state. And yeah, well, apparently their fingerprints were all over, you know, Hillary's bleach server. Then there's been other reports, which I don't know exactly what to make of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I can say this, that in the wake of this, Elon announced that he was removing CrowdStrike from any of his company's servers. Similarly, I had my IT department check and make sure that we didn't have it running anywhere and we don't. I'm just going to be frank. I don't trust this company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Deep state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I'm going to wear a tinfoil hat today. I forgot. You believe what you want. That's what I believe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
What did you think about that reservation article thing? Oh, that's crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So all these closed models, which means open AI... and a bunch of these other folks, especially the ones that are sitting inside of these smaller companies, right? Snowflake has a model, I think Databricks has a model. There's a important question that has to be asked around the economic viability of these models in a world where open source is not only better and better funded,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
but they're iterating faster and the feature set is catching up to your needs. So the minute that SAC says he needs a longer context window, within a week, it's there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah, I think this is like one of the... What do you think, J. Cole?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's just that Google can't afford to lose anything. Yeah. Everybody takes a point here and a point there. And all of a sudden, Google could be in the high 70s of search. And that would be economically disastrous for their stock. Yeah. You're going to have to make cuts. Why do you guys think the stock is down? Why is the stock down 16%? I have a theory as to why. Tell us your theory. Go for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I think that there's a few times a quarter where you can really see the dispersion in the stock market between what I would call the smart money and everybody else. So using betting language, the sharps and the squares. And I think Meta was an example of the Sharps taking a line, which I think is very accurate. And Tesla was the other great example this quarter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And so if you look inside of Meta, and this Freeberg mentioned this earlier, I think Freeberg, what people really reacted negatively to was the total quantum of spending and the idea that it's misallocated, not to AI, but specifically to NVIDIA.
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And the reason is that, and we've mentioned this before, I've tried to talk a lot about this with Jonathan Ross from Grok, but AI is really two markets, training and inference. And inference is going to be 100 times bigger than training. And NVIDIA is really good at training and very miscast at inference. The problem is that right now we need to see a CapEx build cycle for inference.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And there are so many cheap and effective solutions. Grok being one of them, but there are many others. And I think why the market reacted very negatively was it did not seem that Facebook understood that distinction, that they were way overspending and trying to allocate a bunch of GPU capacity towards inference that didn't make sense. And so I think what people were saying is, hold on a second.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So far, your plays are perfect. It's everything we want you to do. We want you to scorch the earth. We want you to open source the headset, but we also want you to understand the difference between training and inference in a little bit more of a nuanced way. Build up the inference capacity, but spend a lot less money because you don't need to spend it on NVIDIA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And the reason is the sharps know that NVIDIA cannot do inference. And so I think that's why the stock is down this much. And I think it's important for people who care about AI, but also may traffic in NVIDIA to understand why the sharps think that. And I think several of us have tried to explain it now for the last couple of weeks, but it is miscast. And so you're overspending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Sharps love it. This is another one, sharps versus the squares. Why did the sharps love it? Why did it go up and everybody was so confused? And I think the answer is that he's actually executing exactly to plan. And so if you're investing in a stock, what you really want is a CEO to kind of stick to a plan that is well-known.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So we don't have to actually guess what the plan is because he puts it out on the website. Look at the master plan part two. And if you start reading down, everything that he said he's going to do starting in 2016 is basically what it is. So let's take the first part. Right. What did he say in the first part? He said, hey, listen, guys, this is 2016. We're going to build a Model 3.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
We're going to build a compact SUV, the Model Y. We're going to build a new kind of pickup truck. OK, check, check and check. Then he said, oh, by the way, we're also probably going to have to do a heavy duty truck and a high passenger density urban transport vehicle. So that's the robo taxi thing that he's going to announce in August. OK. check and check.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And then he talks about the software and the investment in FSD and trying to get to a place where, you know, you can just have a much higher probability that it will save you from an accident and it'll keep you safe when you're driving your car, which will be a large driver of why people want to buy the cars themselves. And you can see like these FSD models. So if you're a smart capital allocator,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
what you actually saw was a dislocated stock price. What you saw was a plan that by and large, he's been executing on at a strategic level. Underneath, there's the vicissitudes. What are the vicissitudes? Sometimes you overhire, you need to trim some fat. Sometimes you overspend on CapEx. Now, he spent about a billion of CapEx's quarter on AI infrastructure, so H100s for training.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
But the market saw through it because that was a reasonable amount of money to spend on training for FSD. So you can start to see the tail of these two reactions. The Sharps looked at the capital allocation and said, okay, you missed by $2.5 billion this quarter, but that's going to create a buying opportunity because we think it's roughly mispriced.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And we think it's mispriced because going back to this plan from 2016, this is all the things that we've been underwriting from $40 billion of market cap to $750 billion, and now we're getting a 40% discount to buy back in. So I think it's a really interesting moment to just contrast and compare what Sharps look at and then what the media breathlessly exaggerates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And I think what they wanted was to lionize the meta earning story, but the Sharps rejected it and they wanted to dump on Elon and the Sharps rejected that in size in both cases. And it's just a reminder to all of us, be very careful what you're reading. Because if you just took the headlines, you would have expected the two reactions to be exactly opposite.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
But when you vote with money, it's very clear and unambiguous because you actually move in the direction of accuracy. And that's what the stock market allows you to see. And I think this is a really interesting contrast to compare sharps versus squares here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
ride sharing is number one, the absolute probably by an order of magnitude. And the reason I say that is in order for ride sharing and ride hailing to really work the way that they envision it, you will have level five autonomy and supported in jurisdictions where, again, if you just look at Part Deux, the whole point is you can summon a car from your app.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And if you don't have access to a mobile phone, you can go to these bus stop equivalents and just press a button and the car comes to you. And so in that world, there's just so much value add in terms of passenger safety and sustainability for the environment and less traffic. It's a gargantuan game changer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
What do you got, Sax, going around the horn here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Like, is it awkward when you tip $50 in ones like that? Like, doesn't it become really thick?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I think it's a pretty obvious disruption if... So today in America, if you look at the energy infrastructure, the utilities keep raising rates. And they keep raising rates independent of what it costs to generate energy. There are 1,700 utilities in America. They are, by law, obligated to spend, I think in the next 10 years, about $2 trillion on CapEx.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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they will pass all of those costs plus a margin to consumers, even though in these next 10 years, the cost of generating an incremental unit of energy will be essentially free. So I think the very disruptive play is to take 100 million homes and make them mini utilities. Same one. What does it mean, make them utilities? You go to a website.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Again, the biggest investment I've made is in a company called Palmetto. They are close to now the largest residential solar business in the United States, if not the largest already. Now, what do they do? You're a consumer, you can go and lease or buy, it doesn't really matter. And we give you a super cheap system that goes on top of your roof, plus a battery system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And all of a sudden, you're totally resilient and independent of the utilities. And we help change the laws so that every time you have excess energy, you can put it back into the grid and get paid, which is called net metering. So if you have 100 million of these mini utilities competing against 1700 incumbents that are forced to make huge investments and are mispriced,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
that's an upheaval of an enormous amount of market cap, but also an enormous amount of debt. There's like trillions of dollars of debt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I've always thought a ginormous directional bet to make would be to go long the disruptor, the person that helps arm the rebels in this case would be the person that arms 100 million homes, and then eventually at some point just short the debt of these utilities because they won't be able to service them if enough people quit and don't need PG&E and everybody else.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
it'll be just massively, massively disruptive. So that's why I think that that market could be big. I like the... Optimist market.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
The only thing that I'll say is in my experience, when I've looked at these generalized robots, the conclusion that I came to, and I could be totally wrong, is I suspect instead of having a generalized robot, you have very specific use case robots that look differently.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So for example, there's an example, Nick, you can throw a picture, but there's something called intuitive surgical, which is essentially a robot that operates on you. And if you look at that, it doesn't look anything like what you would think a robot would look like. It just looks like a ginormous machine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so I suspect that there will be people that become experts in these vertical use cases, and that will limit the TAM for a generalized approach. I could be totally wrong, but that's sort of why I ranked them the way I ranked them. But I'm pretty convinced that Robotaxis are number one, and then this energy thing that upends these 1,700 utilities in America is number two.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah, it's almost, I think it's 18%. It's almost 20%. It's a huge number now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I mean, people die when these blackouts and outages occur. And also, like we saw in San Carlos here in the Bay Area, Nat gas lines explode. PG&E is responsible for forest fires. I mean, if you can do your part to basically get off these grids... use somebody like Palmetto or somebody else and just get solar Tesla and be done with it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And at least you're not contributing to some of these downstream errors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah. I consider it... It's interesting you bring this up. You're creating plausible deniability, but it's still a bribe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So I think... I don't want to be a proponent of this, by the way, but bleep out his name, was saying that, Jason, with FSD, they're very strict that you have to be holding the steering wheel and stuff. Yes. But you can go to Alibaba and buy something that hacks that, right? It's a wait.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
No, no, no, no, no, no. I'm not promoting this. I'm just saying that it doesn't exist.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
No, no, a remote safety driver. Remote, remote. But I have to say, watching this video, that is the coolest bloody thing. I mean, this is amazing. I'll be honest.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Me too. I totally agree with you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
But what is it?
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Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Just explain to me the market, guys. I'm not sure I get it. So there's Waymo and Cruise. It's Uber. But there's Waymo and Cruise, which are like, there's no drivers. And then there's Uber and Lyft, where there are drivers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That's the basic... Right? Is that? Yeah. That's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah. Have you taken one?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah. You have to download the Waymo app?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I don't see non-competes having any value in any market except East Coast financial markets. I've heard of folks getting something called beach leave, typically in finance. These are Wall Street jobs, hedge fund jobs. So I know it exists there.
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Like if you leave hedge fund A and you're going to go to hedge fund B, they make you sit on ice for six months or nine months, garden leave, I think maybe they call it. And the whole idea is that you don't take any active market thoughts to your next job. For what Freeberg said, I just think the whole thing doesn't make much sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, like intellectual property is the least valuable it's ever been. right? More people develop things now via trade secret than patents. The whole patent system has become a little bit of a game. We just talked about open source, right? They have less and less value. So innovation is happening in plain sight.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And so I don't think companies are actually thinking about this issue at all anymore. They're paying people because they need to pay more to get the best and brightest. So I think if you're hoping to rely on one of these agreements, if you're an employer, I think that you should just forget about them and just hire the best people, pay them the best, and if they suck, fire them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
But you can do that now. I don't see it actually doing anything bad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
No, no, no. I'm not disputing that it doesn't exist. I'm saying, where do you see it actually having negative repercussions in California? The point of the fact that it doesn't exist here is also seemingly that it doesn't mean anything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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In that example, you'd still need to have come up with hundreds of millions of CapEx to implement it, whatever you know. So SACs, any thoughts? I just don't think these things mean anything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It just tends to be examples, Jason, over and over of markets that don't really matter that much relying on these things and markets that are dynamic and add value in humanity, just moving past them. So it probably makes sense for all of us to just go move past them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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That's really well said. That's exactly what I was trying to say. That's well said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
You guys know the story, right? Like Steve Chen, before he started YouTube, was an engineer at Facebook. And there was like, at one point, I remember being in some meeting where I was like, oh, I think we found an early version of the YouTube code on an old laptop that was a Facebook laptop that Steve owned. So I remember like the GC was like, I think we technically own YouTube.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That's a good general counsel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Cannot use your work computer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Oh my God.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Of course.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
You know, there's that very famous email that Steve Jobs sent to Bruce Chisholm. which goes something along the lines of, dear Bruce, it's come to my attention that Apple never recruits from Adobe, but it seems like Adobe is actively recruiting Apple employees. One of our practices have to change.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Surf the web. Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
What an incredible... What an incredible... Are we doing a walk down memory lane of our Steve Jobs stories? Do you have one? I have two, but I... Give us one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
when, when it was merged into AOL to create AOL music was this guy, Kevin Conroy, great guy. And Kevin basically got us runway to launch a 99 cent music download store. And we were able to use AOL's cards on file. So there was like 25 or 30 million credit cards. And we were able to use Warner Brothers Music Library because AOL had merged with Time Warner.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so we launched this 99-cent music store, and it performed phenomenally. And I went and I did demos for Walt Mossberg, Takara. I went to Apple, I showed James Higa, Eddie Q, Steve Jobs, all these guys, and AOL just couldn't do anything with the data.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
We kept pushing, Kevin kept pushing, but they were just so tied up in their own political nonsense, they wouldn't green light it becoming more than a beta. And then nine months later, the 99 cent download store launched on iTunes. And I was just like, oh my God, this is execution. And they had all the labels, And it was a thousand times better experience than we created.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But it was the first time where I stumbled into something relatively accidentally and just got, frankly, owned by an organization that's just a thousand times better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
He was the greatest. He was the absolute greatest. I have one other story, but I'm not going to share it. You know what segment people loved last week? I interviewed with him for a job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Right when I left Facebook.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
It's like so littered with my failures and my insecurities, but okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
When you're so damn successful, be self-deprecating. Share with your brothers. There was basically somebody at a well-known recruiting firm who pinged me and said, hey, there could be a consult. This is right when I was leaving Facebook. And I had a pretty large... project that never saw the light of day, which was this Facebook phone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Although people in the ecosystem knew that we were working on it. So, you know, Samsung and Intel were our partners and AT&T and all this stuff. Anyways, long story short, there was a rumor that they wanted to consolidate iPhone into one business unit, right? And at the time, it was kind of like very balkanized or whatever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And I got approached by a recruiter saying they're thinking of creating a role which is kind of like head of iPhone. And at that point, I was like, this is in 2011. And I was adamant that I would never work for anybody until I heard it was Steve Jobs. And I was like, I will do whatever he says. You were ready to bend the knee. Dude, I would have driven his car. I would have... Yes, sir.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I would have driven that car. I was like... You'd be driving Miss Daisy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I went through a couple of interviews. I'm not going to get into those details. And at the end of it, it was like, well... He's not going to become, he's not going to be the CEO. You know, he's going to become executive chairman. And so you'll be reporting to Tim Cook. And that's where that process died. They said I wasn't a good cultural fit for Apple in the new era.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Now, and then it turned out what happened? Yeah, you would not have been.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So then I went and I started Social Capital, but that was my only job interview that I had. when I was leaving Facebook, and it was, for me, I had the same reaction as Freeburg. I was like a kid meeting his, I don't even wanna call it idol. I think I was like a believer meeting Jesus. That's how it felt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
It's time that famous clip of you asking him that question where you basically was looking at you like that's a very famous one, because that that you you really got the better of him, I thought, which is pretty good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Okay, you got it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
800 million when I left.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
They're taking a play that we talked about, which makes a ton of sense, which is it's not a core market. but it's very important. The core money-making market for them is monetizing their family of apps. And so they're scorching the earth for these new markets so that the economics are not viable, which will, I think, allow a more robust ecosystem where they'll have more of a say.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That was gross. That was gross. I've never had a problem getting a reservation at any restaurant in New York.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Because I think up until this point, you could have said that they and Google were sort of lagging behind OpenAI. But I don't think that's the case. And by the way, this is the strategy that we talked about 16 months ago that these big companies should take. I just think it's worth listening to what we said and then basically what Zuck said just right now. Here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think the thing to keep in mind is that the reason why the government is banning TikTok, and I'm totally speculating and guessing, has nothing to do with these silly little videos. But it is that the overwhelming majority of the people that download TikTok keep the microphone on, and it is an ambient passive surveillance device.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And I think to the extent that a foreign government has access to whatever you hear ambiently and randomly while the app is not even being used is the real problem here. And so I think that that's effectively what this is, is a listening device into enough Americans. And I think that that's pretty scary to folks.
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The second thing is with respect to the actual product itself, in the absence of that algorithm, which I think is just incredible, as somebody who was a voracious user of that app until I deleted it, I don't think the product is much of anything. It's probably no better or no worse than shorts or reels or some of these other alternatives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I don't see the economic justification for anybody who already has one of these assets to buy these things because the content is roughly the same now. It is the thing that makes that app is the algo. But the videos are everywhere. They're on YouTube. They're on Instagram. They're everywhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So I don't see why anybody would pay a lot of money for this, especially in the absence of the algorithm. This is my honest thought. What do you think, Jacob?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
This is a black and white flashback. Chamath in a turtleneck. Go. I think that Google will open source their models because the most important thing that Google can do is reinforce the value of search. And the best way to do that is to scorch the earth with these models, which is to make them widely available and as free as possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
One quick thing. I think what Zach said is really interesting about them then going after Telegram. The big issue that I think Telegram has always had is that it is encrypted, but it has its own form of encryption that they rolled themselves, right? Like typically, I think WhatsApp and a lot of these other folks just use pretty standard signal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think as well use SHA-256 encryption, which is like pretty standard. But there's always a fear that the US government actually can unencrypt that and has some kind of a backdoor. That was always the fear of SSG-256. And so Pavel Durov and his team basically rolled his own, which is also 256-bit symmetric encryption, but different standard altogether.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And what people would say is, hold on, he has the backdoor to Sachse's point. So that was always the claim, counterclaim between these things of why Telegram was always painted in more of a sketchy corner. I'm not saying that it's true. And I think that if they go after it, I think it's because this underlying encryption model is something that we can't get access to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And so they'd rather just eliminate it to your dis-access point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That will cause Microsoft to have to catch up, and that will cause Facebook to have to really look in the mirror and decide whether they're going to cap the betting that they've made
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Me too. A hundred times worse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That's so easy, by the way. Have we eliminated the FISA courts entirely? We don't need those anymore either? They can just do whatever they want?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
on arvr and reallocate very aggressively to ai that should be what facebook does and the reason is if facebook and google and microsoft have roughly the same capability in the same model there's an element of machine learning called reinforcement learning and specifically it's reinforcement learning from human feedback facebook has an enormous amount of reinforcement learning inside of facebook every click
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
This is insane. Insane. This is ridiculous. These things will never pass.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
every comment, every like, every share, the huge companies will create the substrates. And I think they'll be forced to scorch the earth and give it away for free. Now you can see what Zuck said last week.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
All right, everybody, this is the World's Greatest Podcast. By the way, Jason, if you do decide in the end to vote for Biden, I'll send you some luxury tents that you and your kids could sleep in. You can tell them stories about how you voted for him. It's so brutal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And... Is that the largest and most listened to podcast in the world?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That is, I think, the definition of scorched earth. And he's running a really perfect play so far. He's open sourced the headset OS. He's opening sourced these models. He stopped training, I think, for Lama 3.5, was it? And now he's moved directly to Lama 4 just to try to head off GPT-5 at the pass. So what are we seeing? We're seeing the economic value getting disintegrated.
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There is no value in foundational models economically. So then the question is, who can build on top of them the fastest? And Jason, to your point, Lama was announced last Thursday. 14 hours later, Grok actually had that model deployed in the Grok cloud so that 100,000 plus developers could start building on it. That's why that model is so popular.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So it puts the closed models on their heels because if you can't both train and deploy iteratively and quickly enough, these open source alternatives will win. And as a result, the economic potential that you have to monetize those models will not be there. And what that does is reinforce the existing economic moat that Facebook already has in monetizing their apps.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Now, why the stock went down, I'd like to talk in contrast to Tesla a little bit later, because this has nothing to do with that. And it's more about squares versus sharps in the stock market.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Oh, all the time. Yeah, sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
A pretty industrious kid, it turns out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah, Sachs is elite. He's got the $100 bill pressed into his palm, shakes the guy's hand.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And by the way, you just said something really interesting before, which is, okay, there's a limitation, right? You mentioned the context window, which was a problem. I just found this thing today. They solved it. Now they're at 96K context. Yeah, that's amazing. So to your point, Sax, this market is moving so fast because you cannot compete with open source.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I think the thing is, look, if you think about the pendulum of culture in Silicon Valley, we used to have a very tough culture of founder-led businesses where there was extremely high expectations. And if you transgressed, it was very punitive.
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And then the pendulum swung all the way to the other opposite end where you had this like coddling daycare type approach that existed for like the last 15 or 20 years. And probably what OpenAI is is an example of a company that needs to be run a little bit more like the former but stuck with a bunch of people that still pull it towards to be the latter.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
And that's the cultural tension that they're going to have to sort out because in order to be this incredible bastion of like AGI and innovation, I suspect that it's going to look more like a three-letter agency in terms of security and protocols in the next five or 10 years, then it is going to look like the Googleplex. And I think they just need to own that.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
And this is probably a little bit of an insight into that tension. And they're going to have to go more in that direction. I think it's a good insight. You're not going to be allowed to build these incredibly crazy world-beating technologies where people are running around in an eight-seater bicycle. It's just not going to work, guys.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I think it's a really incredibly fun moment if you're involved in anything AI-related, just because it shows the level of investment that NVIDIA's customers are making into making this new reality available for everybody, right?
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So when you're spending effectively $100 billion a year on the capex of chips, and then a couple hundred billion more on all the related infrastructure, and then another couple hundred billion more on power, you're talking about half a trillion to three quarters of a trillion dollars a year being spent to bring AI forward to the masses. So I think that's the really positive take.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
The other exciting thing is if you're on the other side of the Nvidia trade, which is you're working on something that does what they do cheaper, faster, or better, it's also really exciting because at some point the laws of capitalism kick in, right? We've talked about this. When you are over-earning so massively,
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The rational thing to do for other actors in the arena is to come and attack that margin and give it to people for slightly cheaper, slightly faster, slightly better so you can take share. Yes. So I think what you're seeing and what you'll see even more now is this incentive for Silicon Valley, who has been really reticent to put money into chips. really reticent to put money into hardware.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
They're going to get pulled into investing in this space because there's no choice. You have a company that went from $100 billion in market cap to $2.5 trillion in four years. It's just way too much value that is there to then be leaked back. The interesting thing to remember is During the PC revolution, which is really mostly the 90s, right?
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
It ended in the late 90s, I would say like 98, 99, right before the dot-com bubble took over. Intel's peak market cap was, I think it got to about $200 billion. And then their average growth rate from 1998 to today was negative 1.4% a year, right? So it went from about $200 billion to about $130 odd billion. And why? It's not that Intel was a worse company. But it's that everything else caught up.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
And the economic value went to things that sat above them in the stack. Then it went to Cisco for a while, right? Then after Cisco, it went to the browser companies for a little bit. Then it went to the app companies. Then it went to the device companies. Then it went to the mobile companies. So you see this natural tendency for value to push up the stack over time.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
And in AI, we've done step one, which is now you've given all this value to NVIDIA, and now we're going to see it being reallocated.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So, right now, what you do is you speculatively bet on anything that kind of like, quote unquote, rhymes with NVIDIA. Yeah. AMD is ripping, the companies that make HPM is ripping. So all of that stuff, the folks that make optical cables, this Japanese company that I found that makes like the high bandwidth optical cables ripping.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So anything related to that ecosystem right now is at all time highs. But at the same time, What you find now is every other day when you wake up and read the trades in Techland, you find that there's a company that's gotten seeded with $5 to $50 million to create a new chip.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
You're also starting to see folks that are working a little bit above the stack and build better compilers, things that will allow you to actually build once, run in many different compute environments. So all of this stuff is starting to happen. At some point, the spread trade will be that NVIDIA loses share, even though revenues keep compounding to these upstarts. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I think NVIDIA, this is to build on Sax's point, is going to get pulled into competing directly with the hyperscalers. So if you were just selling chips, you probably wouldn't. But Saks is right. These are these big, bulky, actual machines.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Then all of a sudden, you're like, well, why don't I just create my own physical plant and just stack these things and create racks and racks of these machines? And go head-to-head with AWS instead of selling to them. It's not a far stretch, especially because NVIDIA actually has... the software interface that everybody uses, which is CUDA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So I think it's likely that NVIDIA goes on a full frontal assault against GCP and Amazon and Microsoft. That's going to really complicate the relationship that those folks have with each other. But I think it's inevitable because how do you defend? It's kind of the Apple problem. How do you defend an enormously large market cap? You're forced to go into businesses that are equally lucrative.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Now, if I look inside of compute and look at the adjacent categories, they're not going to all of a sudden start a competitor to TikTok or a social network. But if you look at the multi-hundred billion revenue businesses that are adjacent to the markets that Nvidia enables, the most obvious one is the hyperscalers, which are multi-hundred billion dollar revenue businesses.
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So they're going to be forced to compete. Otherwise, their market cap will shrink And I don't think they want that. And then it's going to create a very complicated set of incentives for Microsoft and Google and Meta and Apple and all the rest. And that's also then going to be an accelerant.
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They're going to pump so much money to help all of these upstarts, to your point, Jason, chip away and nip at the Achilles heels of NVIDIA until they fall.
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Tesla's making chips. Yeah.
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He looks amazing.
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No, no, no. His balls are plastic.
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His literally had brass put into his balls. No, all of our balls have plastic, apparently.
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I'm going to go out on a limb and speculate that a lot of the big numbers that we use to gauge how we should feel about things in today's day and age are pretty brittle. And fragile and may actually just be totally wrong. So what's an example? So for example, if you look at something like non-farm payrolls, right?
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So the first Friday of every month, you get this report that comes out from the Department of Labor and it shows where unemployment is. But how do they calculate that? Do you think that they have a real-time sense of exactly every person in that month that entered the workforce or exited the workforce? No. They do a survey and then they extrapolate.
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And if you do that survey incorrectly, and Jason, you've commented on this before, for example, if you don't capture adequately the number of people that are on the sidelines and never joined the workforce or the number of people that are part of the gig economy, so they are kind of working, you get an inaccurate sense of where the real economy is.
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I think that GDP is somewhat similar because if you just break down what GDP is, so Nick, there's a very simple pie chart I sent to you. What is GDP? It's the sum of four things. Most of it is what people spend. Okay. Then the next big chunk is what companies and governments spend, and then the last is what we export to other countries.
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So let's just pause for one second and think about what do you think happens when rates are zero versus when rates are at 6%? People spend a lot more. Well, people tend to save when interest rates are high. Just the natural thing, like why would I buy a pair of these Nike shoes? I'll just put it in the bank, I get 6%.
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But when the bank pays you zero, you're like, ah, let me buy these Air Force Ones and move on, right? It turns out it's the same for companies. Companies find it easier to invest when rates are at zero because it's cheaper. It's much more expensive because they're borrowing money at 6% versus at 0%. Or more. Corporate gets charged a higher fee, right? Yeah.
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Then when you have high interest rates, you have a currency that appreciates. It makes exports less attractive to other people, which means then you become an ad importer. Okay, so what is the last thing that's left? The last thing that's left is government spending. And you have to ask the question, what should governments do when rates are high?
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There was a chart I published in my annual letter, if you just go to that for a second.
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And then I just wanted just to highlight that when interest rates are very high, all of a sudden governments are faced with this very difficult problem, which is, oh man, I have to spend a ton of money on interest. Just like if you had a bunch of credit cards and all of a sudden the interest rates went up. So the choice is twofold. Do governments spend less?
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But unfortunately, it turns out that our governments in America, they just keep spending more and more. So even if net interest income is small, even if net interest income is high, they're just like, forget it, the taps are on. So what does this all mean? I think what it really means is that we do a very poor job of measuring all these dynamics together.
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And so I actually trust the survey data of these individuals more than I trust the GDP report. in the sense that I think it more accurately captures this dynamic. Rates are at 6%. People are saving more. They're not getting paid more. Things are costing more. The government is giving you free money, so you kind of feel like everything is moving.
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So the GDP measurement, the way that it's classically done, shows that, wow, we grew at 3% or 4%. But the average individual American isn't feeling that. They're actually feeling that they have less money.
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So I would actually go with them and actually say, if we don't revisit this thing from first principles, we're going to get this dynamic where we think one thing is happening, but the actual exact opposite is happening. In this case, I do think we're in a quasi-synthetic recession.
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Because when you spend... Go back to that McNugget chart. I just want to see what is it end of 2019. So this is basically you'd want to look at the four year stock price, right? So like these guys have jacked up prices. Massively. If you look at what's happened to the stock, the stock is way up.
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It's kind of been they've been very motivated and rewarded as a company for just rewarding the shareholder and kind of screwing over the customers.
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You know, because she doesn't exist. Oh, back to the general open AI.
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You cornered the market on them.
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I went to Sagona's. You sent your assistant? No, Nat and I go to Sagona's every week. A, because we like buying our own fruit. Yeah. But also B, because our kids like to do it and they like to see what things cost and they like to pick stuff. But, you know, this sweetest batch was seven bucks. For how many strawberries is that, by the way? 12 strawberries in there?
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Well, so here's what I'll tell you, quite honestly. I'm like, I think that you need to put these guys... on notice. Oh, on blast. The perfume, so the nose, just like, it's incredible. The aroma, yeah. The smell is, the aroma, it's just absolutely incredible. Yeah. But to be totally honest with you, the mouthfeel and the sweetness is not what this label would imply. Yeah.
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What were you expecting in terms of mouthfeel? I was expecting something juicier, more succulent,
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Did you do tasting notes? No, I've been texting Friedberg about this for months. I am a connoisseur of fruit, okay? It's very important to me. I like good fruit. So, you know, my wife and I go and find good fruit for our family. And it's really expensive. And even this over promises and under delivers. So Freeburg, if you can land a GMO strawberry, I'm going to put it in my belly.
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Give me a GMO strawberry for your book. Twice as big, three times as sweet. Get in my belly.
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I mean, she doesn't exist. Of course it's a digitally altered version of ScarJo. And they got caught. Okay. Cookie jar.
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By the way, if you want to replace GDP, there was a very good article in the Wall Street Journal a few weeks ago about how there's been just a total breakdown in what these high-level numbers say, kind of what we've been saying and how Americans feel. They introduced a different score. Well, they gave it publicity. It's not their score, but it's something that they call the core score.
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What that does, I'll just read it to you just so you can understand it. It's a county level index of wellbeing using measures of economic security, economic opportunity, health, and political voice. And so the lowest possible score is zero. The highest possible score is 10. As it turns out, when they use this across every county in America, the distribution is basically as follows.
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The most quote unquote prosperous county is Falls Church, Virginia, which is a 7.86 out of 10. And the lowest county is Jim Hogg County of Texas. which has a score of 2.25. So to the extent that you want to start to look at granular measures, this is one. I'm not going to advocate for it, but it's an example. But what do you notice in here?
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What I notice is that there's a lot of patches of like meh to not good in most parts of America. And so other than a very few small pockets where people feel great, most of the country is sort of dissatisfied. And I think that that's a really important thing to internalize.
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He wasn't responsible. Once the seal has been broken, I think it's fair to say both sides of the aisle now believe that they can give away an enormous amount of money. Absolutely. There's nobody that feels like they have a responsibility to stop. But I think what Sachs is right in the sense that, so if you take that as a constant, right, that there will always be handouts now of all kinds.
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There'll be different flavors depending on whether it's a Republican or whether a Democrat.
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It's all, so then what I'm saying is- That's my point. This abstraction though doesn't solve what's happening now because this free money is in the system. It's constantly in the system. It comes in different waves. So people should feel better. The fact that they don't in the face of this constant money train, I think is actually quite alarming.
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This is, I think what the point is, which is we are economically in a very complicated moment in the sense that there is no pandemic to blame. There's no economy that's totally shut down. In fact, there's an economy that seems to be moving, but leaving an enormous number of people behind.
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So however it has been structured, just sitting here today in 2024, it's broken for more people than it's working for. Yeah.
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Let's talk about my balls, boys.
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If you scroll up to the top- Look at the, wait, look at the Chipotle chicken burrito. Oh my God.
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Freeburg, why would the chicken nuggets from Wendy's though be so... Is it because they are eating?
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And so then we're eating the chicken, so we're eating the plastic.
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These are the things like, look at Annie's. First of all, I really dislike Annie's labeling and packaging. I think it's very ugly, so I've never bought it for that reason. But I know that there's a lot of private equity moms that buy Annie's because it's supposed to be better for them.
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And so the problem is you see organic. When you go, like, again, we go to Drager's. That's typically where we go. Sometimes we go to Whole Foods, but we go to Drager's and Sagona's. That's the places we go to in our neighborhood.
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And when you go and you look at these things like prepared meals, as an example, the thing that has always attracted me to Annie's is because it is positioned as it is cleaner and better for you. And you see everybody buying it. And what you actually see sitting on the shelf that's left over is actually the Chef Boyardee and the Campbell's.
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And I always thought to myself, I won't buy Andy's because I actually don't like the label, to be honest. That was really why I just deeply disliked the packaging. But it turns out it's the absolute worst for you.
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I think, look, here's the thing. This company is going to go down in the history books. In one part, because the technical inventions that they've created are just next level, and frankly, created an entire industry. And I think they deserve a ton of credit for that. But they're also going to be written in the history books for two other things that are probably less aspirational.
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I think the first is that there's just all kinds of dust-ups and unnecessary drama that just seem to kick around every few weeks or months. And then the second is the sheer quantum of value capture that the employees have seen through secondaries before a fully functional business has been really created. And so I think it explains why folks circle the wagons consistently.
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First of all, I really appreciate that you did this. I think it's so important. We talked about microplastics a little bit ago. J-Cal moved his whole family away, I guess, a few years ago from plastics. I've started to do it four or five months ago.
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It's in the supply chain is your point.
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This is what I was going to say. I think our food supply, I think we should just say it out loud. is totally corrupted. And I think there's all of these other factors we look at, the rise in the use of SSRIs, the lack of sexual function in young men, the lack of sex, the low birth rate.
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I think these are all related and part of it is the food supply and part of the food supply problem is the fact that it is corrupted by these materials that should never be in our body.
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That's a guess, but I honestly think it's the truth.
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Every part of our industrial supply chain- I hear you, but the concentration, I'm going to guess that the concentration, when you actually put it in your body, and then your intestines and your organs are bathed in this stuff, I'm going to guess that the food supply has a huge part to do with this.
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Let me say it in a way that maybe you will agree with then. We need to fix something. My starting point would be the food supply.
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I think it's a very rational organization. They're technically ahead of everybody else. A lot of people want to put in money at crazy prices. A bunch of that value is transferred immediately to the employees who circle the wagons and do what's necessary to keep the taps flowing. And I think that that explains the whole thing.
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That was really, really well done. You nailed it. We were workshopping that before the show. I was like, what is bofas? Bova deez nuts. That's awesome.
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Oh my God. Oh, where's the air horn, Nick? Play the air horn. No, no, okay, let's get serious here for a second. I have a real question. Part of the thing that I think is broken is that I think somewhere along the way we got screwed up in how food is labeled, right? And then it was gamed effectively, right?
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So for years, even when I was growing up, I thought you should not buy food that was high in fat. as an example. And little did I know I was ingesting all these sugars as a substitute to fat. It was a total mistake. Does the labeling need to become simpler and focus on these things that are just fundamentally carcinogenic for us? One, two, three.
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are there like lawsuits that need to happen a la cigarettes where you kind of connect the dots between these phthalates and a bunch of these diseases? Because it just seems like we are, people have thrown their hands in the air for years, right? Some people say autism and diet are correlated, right?
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Other people, so there, you know, Crohn's, the rise of Crohn's, there's so many of these conditions that there is a cohort of people that attribute most of the reason the pathology of the disease exists to food. So what do we do? Or pesticides, right? Yeah, that was in there too.
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No, these are phthalate-free because these are from the 1400s. They didn't have that back then.
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These are collectors items, bro. These are, these are from an era where that's something.
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And I think that that explains many Silicon Valley companies, quite honestly.
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It's baby cash. Yeah.
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I'm trying to hone you into this one area that I actually, I get the tires and the this and the that. I'm trying to get to something that I fundamentally care about. I have young children. I feed them food every day. I don't trust my food supply. I've never really trusted it.
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And this kind of stuff adds to this body of evidence where I'm worried that if my kids go through some kind of an issue, at the core of it will actually be something dietary. And it's typically overlooked by modern medicine because you'll treat it symptomologically. You'll try to give it some kind of pill. It's not how you treat a lot of these things. It could turn out.
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where restructuring someone's diet can actually have an enormous impact. So I'm just trying to figure out what is something that we can all start to do to get a handle on this because you're putting food in your body every day.
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I think that's laudatory but too complicated. I want something simpler, which is like, can we get a law passed so that chickens cannot eat certain kinds of food that are known to be high in phthalates?
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Whoa, whoa. No ditty. No, but the real issue is not that. It's like when the girls in your family have puberty younger and younger, and you're like, why is that happening? Or inconsistent periods. Or when the boys go through these weird moments where they're not really growing.
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I'm just telling you.
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I think the thing that everybody could get focused on is how can you correct at least the marketing versus the reality in our food supply. You know, a different example, I remember Nat telling me something which was along the lines of like hormone free is something that's marketed, but like chickens have been hormone free since like the 50s.
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But it's like there's some latent hormones left inside of them. And then some of the feed is really poorly constructed. And you should be focused on like air chilled versus water chilled or whatever. There's just so much bullshit out there. And so I think it's hard if you're like trying to take care of your family.
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Make sense of it all. It's just like, it seems impossible.
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I find this super frustrating because it's something that I really care about my, like what I eat.
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And it came from a place where a lot of disease in my family and then I was overweight when I was young. And so I just want to kind of like toe off. No, I mean you eat.
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No, I know Jason, but my takeaway is there's going to be a lot of phthalates in my balls. Yes, absolutely. Despite all the stuff that I do, I'm no better off than somebody eating at Wendy's in the end of the day. And I feel like, well, what is all that time and expense and difficulty? It's not worth it.
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I think you're right. And I think that's why you see all of these kinds of diseases, these chronic and acute conditions just ticking up. Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick.
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I haven't seen it.
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I'm going to find one.
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Yeah. There's a compilation of YouTube, on YouTube, of all these Austin Powers moments of Austin Powers getting kicked in the balls. Yeah, bad news.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So you're in the you're in the much ado about nothing on this card.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So do you think if she if she sues open AI, do you think it should just get thrown out? It's not a real case.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
No, no, no. I'm not saying that. I'm asking you more that, yeah, even if they find it, your point is it shouldn't matter. My point is, do you think that it should be thrown out?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I'm in the middle of this crazy thing. With Facebook, and they've been doing a very good job, the team at Meta, Ashley, thank you. But hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of automated accounts pretending to be me selling all kinds of random stuff. It's predominantly on WhatsApp and Facebook and Meta. And I don't know what to do because we work together with them. We shut it down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I've actually had to reactivate my Facebook and Instagram accounts, which were dormant. so that we could actually have them be verified, so that then it's easier to shut them down. But it is an impossible task when somebody's impersonating you to fight it. At least in my experience, it's been a month and it's just like every hundred we take down, another thousand.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Well, didn't Meta use Morgan Freeman when Zuck created an AI or something as a project? Do you guys remember that? Wasn't Morgan Freeman the voice?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I've said this before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Using a computer to probabilistically copy something is still copying something. Yes. Come on, guys, let's not make this too complicated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Well, you can see why they wrote that in there. That makes sense if you think, hold on a second, if an employee can leave with, you know, a random copy of like some old weights as a starting point to rebuild the model, that could be very valuable or... Well, that's IT. Yeah, but there's all kinds of quasi-confidential information or knowledge or know-how that you leave a place like that with.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
So I could see why there was a justification to be very... heavy-handed about it. But again, the question isn't whether you're allowed to be heavy-handed. You are. The question is, why backtrack and then obfuscate and lie after you get caught? Well, right. What do they say?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Just own it and say, you know what, guys, this is a really valuable company. There's a ton of very valuable trade secret know-how IP confidential information. And we're going to be extremely- Litigious. On the offense and protect it because- Aggressive. And it's correlated to the importance of the company and the ecosystem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
You could have said that and people could have been upset, but they would have understood.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Because otherwise-
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Stray bullets everywhere. No, I'm not going to say his name.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Wow. Making news. Making news. Why are you doing this at the end of the show? I'm just frustrated. I'm literally going to smash this laptop with my tractor. Right when J. Cal was about to become a centimillionaire, she shut the door.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Uber over 60, you're going to get a much different answer from me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Wet your feet. We need to get merch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
History of the world, Mel Brooks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I mean, I'll preview one use case from 8090, which is pretty stunning. You know, we work with a very large regulated, highly regulated company, public company. And they have a very complicated set of people and processes because of the field in which they're in. And David, your point is exactly right. It took us a fairly long time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But we're at a point now where we've been running AI powered software versus the old legacy deterministic solution. And we've been running it at 100% accuracy now for about 10 days. So this is still very new. And it's an incredible thing because to your point, our first version was like in the mid 80s, then we were in the mid 90s, then we were 97, 98%, but there were still errors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And it just took a lot of engineering to figure out how to get to 100, but now it's at 100 and it's been consistently at 100. And so we're all kind of like scratching our head because now the next step is, well, what do we do? To your point. What do we do? So we're figuring that out right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But the art of the possible is that I think well-crafted AI software is as good as deterministic software in the sense that the error rates will be equivalent in production and at the level of a very highly regulated public company. And I think that's the gold standard because in those sectors, those companies have zero tolerance. It's not a toy. It's not even level one customer support.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
It's system of record type work. Yeah. But it shows what's possible. And to your point, Sax, we're doing that today, even though they're the best models. Imagine how good the underlying models will get in a year from now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Right? And we'll be able to take on more and more work. It's very stunning, actually.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, the thing with O1 is that I think it's starting to add reasoning. But the way that you do reasoning is sort of this idea that you have this chain of thought And I think that that's a very powerful but early concept.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And as we refine those ways in which these models get to better answers, the wonderful thing is that OpenAI will preview 01, and then they'll have the actual 01 production build probably in the next couple of months, which will be probably pretty spectacular. But then you'll see something from Claude, you'll see something from Lama. And the real...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Art, I think, and this is where I do think it's a little bit of alchemy still, which I think is good because it keeps humans involved, all of us involved.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Is how do you stitch all of those things together to get to a 0% error rate? What Zach said, you know, how do you minimize the blast radius and how do you make sure these things are super high quality?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Well, and people don't... It's still a very hard technical problem. Go ahead, Saxon, then I'll show you what ChatGP is doing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
You're making such a good point. So when we were trying to figure out like what applications we would build and like which sectors of the economy we would go after, I was like, guys, we got to go after the hardest, most regulated places.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I've never seen him happier. We've only put out half the clips and they've already gotten 20 million views.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Because those are the things and places and people that have absolutely zero tolerance for error and where you're going to need to do some amount of customization and specialization to actually solve these problems. And Saks, to your point, like when you see, and I said, you cannot, we cannot touch customer service.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
We cannot touch it because it's going to get commoditized and run over by these foundational models within a year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I mean, it's just too easy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And by the way, just to build on that, the other thing that's now possible, and you saw this with Klarna, because Klarna put out this cryptic tweet slash press release where, I think maybe it was in their earnings. Nick, maybe you can find this, where they're like, we've deprecated Salesforce and worked it. That was strange, yeah. How can a company that big deprecate those two systems of record?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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How is that even, it's, how is it possible? I think it means they're writing their own, right? Well, I'll tell you how it's possible. And so this is like this next crazy thing that's been happening. We've been doing a version of this to go after some other sources of software. We haven't had the balls, to be honest, to go after Salesforce or Workday, but here's how they do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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They write these agents. and these agents can spawn other agents, right? So it's very classic kind of machine that builds a machine. And you start to observe the inputs and outputs of a system, right? I'm hyper simplifying, but I'm just, it'll make the point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And over time, what the agents start to do is by observing the inputs and the outputs, they start to guess on what the intervening code is, and the code paths must be in the middle to generate the outputs based on these inputs. And so over time, what happens is you develop a digital twin, And then you run that against that counterfactual, against Workday or Salesforce.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And then at some point, you're like, it's the same. And you just turn it off. And you're saving yourself tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. So it's a version of what Klarna did. It takes an enormous amount of technical strength to do it. It also takes tremendous, I think, executive courage and leadership, because I think that's a very difficult decision to embark on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But if you're an engineer, that must be an unbelievably exciting technical challenge to be a part of. But that's the basic premise of what they were able to do. Hopefully, they share more and maybe they even open source what they did, because I think it would just be an amazing experience. thing for all of us to look at.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
You scale through people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And those are very expensive products, thousands of dollars per user, right? I want to I want to get Sax's point of view, like the thing in enterprise software that we were always told is you cannot touch these systems of record, don't ever start a systems of record company, don't try to touch these systems of record companies don't, you know, try to disrupt them. It's an impossible task.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But then the question is, if you have these things, Why do you necessarily need a system of record in the way that you needed to before when you were writing all this clunky, deterministic code?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I don't think you're right. I don't think it's easy to do because I don't think there's a generalization here that's productizable. Do you know what I mean? Like, I do think that these are very custom specific things. So maybe there's like some scaffolding, but I don't think that that scaffolding has a ton of economic value. I think it's really good open source stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I think it's what you build on top of it. And so that hasn't been figured out yet for sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Nick, show this tweet to these guys. Here's the tweet. Oh, this was a crazy one, yeah. But look at the code. Look at the actual product itself for a second.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But that was 600, sorry, it was a billion dollars that NYC paid Oracle 600 million to build our course management portal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
The reason I wanted to show this to you is I think that these kinds of things will not be possible in the future. I just don't see how one could... spend a billion dollars if one tried to, to enable that feature. It would be impossible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
You know the answer. You know the answer. Say the answer, Jason. Corruption. No, come on, Jason. Incompetence. Really?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
They haven't delivered any of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
That's the answer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Chamath, your thoughts? One comment is, and this is so sad, but I'm so desensitized by the amount of waste that I don't know whether 50 billion is a lot or a little anymore when it comes to the United States government. Isn't that sad? Because now everything I hear is in hundreds of billions and trillions, but 50 billion is an enormous amount of money, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
If I had to just take a step back and just generalize going forward, do we want to live in the kind of administrative state where they will pick people that they dislike based on totally random criteria, a tweet, a meme, a post, and then all of a sudden punish a bunch of the rest of us because of that. They're punishing all of America because they collect our taxes to waste on it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And then they punish the people that they actually say they're going to uplift by not delivering what they promised. And if you take Elon out of it for a second, The problem was when we crossed the chasm and did it with the first guy, him. But the reality is there's only one of him and then there's a lot of the rest of us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And what'll happen is people just get added to this list of folks that certain nameless, faceless people in the administrative state dislike. And what happens is the country slows down and the country wastes money and the country pilfers it away. And that has to stop. And so what really bothers me about these things is A,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I don't know how to undesensitize myself to the fact that all of a sudden now because of just all of this sloppy waste, I didn't react as much as I should have to just $50 billion being flushed down the toilet on these two projects. And then two, Jason, your point, it is a solved problem that you can give incredibly cheaply.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And the fact that it's not left to private enterprise to solve this, and instead, it's just brazen partisanship combined with retaliation combined with incompetence,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And just to give the Democrats their due, what happens if then Trump does the same thing for a solution that you support and you need and you think should be everywhere? The point is, we don't want any of this stuff. Under any administration. And the minute that one administration breaks the seal and makes it acceptable, it becomes part of the water table. And that's the real problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
We broke the seal on this crazy multi-multi-trillion dollar spending, and it has just never stopped since then.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
We'll be around 50 million, I think, when all the clips are released and you let it bake for a couple of months. That is an astoundingly large...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I really applaud the people that have the courage to show this stuff on X, to tweet this stuff out so that the rest of us know about it, and the person that talked about the NYC thing. But then the next step has to happen, which is that we all need to decide that this stuff needs to stop, otherwise it's going to bankrupt our country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Because this is our children's future. Is it true that Kamala was the broadband czar that was responsible for this thing? I mean, who knows? No, because I saw that a bunch of senators wrote a letter to her, and they claimed that she was the broadband czar, but I don't know if that's true or not true, and whether she was responsible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I do worry that there's a growing version of the Elon derangement syndrome that's also kind of like festering. Yeah, for sure. Which it just stops people from thinking rationally. Of course.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I thought your moderation was excellent this time. It was better than before, because I think that you're actually exceptional as a moderator, and I think you're mostly average as a conference producer. Yeah. I do think as a moderator, you're excellent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I agree with everything you're saying except the last part. I don't think it's on behalf of their constituents. I don't think any of us see any benefit from any of this spending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But who's winning in this? It's not like this $42 billion lining the pockets of, I don't know, names.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
For sure, all those fiber companies that are going to lay that fiber are going to get that money. And then they're going to kick back 40,000 a home. But it's been three or four years. They haven't done a single thing. I mean, I still think they're cash the checks. It seems like we're at the stage of just pure incompetence and retaliation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
We're not even at the stage of actually then giving it to anybody else. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Of course they're not. Well, I think the good news is that the more of these things we shine a light on, the harder it'll be to... hide when these grants are actually given or what the execution is. And let's start a running list.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
No, to your point, Sacks, maybe like, you know, we need a revival of the 60 minutes, you know, waste, fraud and abuse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I mean, like some of the most memorable moments were you basically drawing out contrasting opinions and the way that the people engaged with them was so healthy and good. That was the, I think the recurring theme. So I give you an enormous amount of credit. I think you did an exceptional job, but I also think it's because you were able to focus on what you're doing. Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
My gosh, venture is a really, really tough business. Every year for the last seven, six years, seven years, I have published my returns, which most VCs don't want to do. I do it because I go back and I look at it and I think having public accountability actually drives some good decisions. They may seem suboptimal in the moment, but they, in the long run, turn out to be good decisions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the biggest one has been generating liquidity. So Nick, you can throw up this thing, but I'm sure there are funds in each of these vintages that have done way better than me. So I'm not saying it is what it is, but
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
What I want to point out is if I go and look inside of these funds and tell you how hard it has been to generate this DPI, it's like dragging an entire just- Sack of potatoes over the finish line. It's like a truck of dead bodies over a finish line. It is super, super hard. And the things that we have fought are two. One is that the gestation of companies has totally blown out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
We used to be in a world where by year five, six, or seven, you could return money. You just can't do that anymore unless you get extraordinarily lucky, which by the way, I got when Saks was running Yammer. It was an enormous win for all of us, but that is just exceptionally rare.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Yeah, but there's so few entrepreneurs capable of that. He's one of maybe five or 10. So other than that, I've never really had a company that has generated liquidity in year five, six, or seven. They've always generated, if they've generated it at all, in years 11, 12, and 13.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so the problem with that is that at some point you have these paper marks that say you're winning and things are working, but there's no path to liquidity. So then what I did was I stepped in to the secondary markets and I would sell. And it would really upset certain founders.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
But I was very clear that when I was running outside capital, and I was running outside capital on behalf of really organizations that I believed in, the Broad Foundation, the Mayo Clinics, Memorial Sloan Kettering, my job was to get them money back. These were their pension funds. These were the things that they used to build facilities. Cancer research.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Cancer research, I didn't have the ability to just sit on my hands and say, oh, you know what, year 15, don't worry. So it's just meant to say that the tactics of generating liquidity in venture are very misunderstood and very underappreciated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
And even then, you sell some things that are just absolute winners that had you waited another five or six years would have turned another, you know, one or two turns. But that's not the job. The job is not to maximize absolute every single win. The job is to return capital in a reasonable time period so that your investors don't run out of money to give you. So it's a tough game, man.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
It is really, really, really tough. Yeah, and the insight- And sorry, by the way, and I feel this now because the last five or six years has been entirely my own capital. And my gosh, it's hard. Managing liquidity, it's impossible, especially when you can't rely on anybody else. So it's a tough game.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I would have been in real trouble without reasonably liquid secondary markets. Myself included. My numbers would be a quarter of what they are.
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That's broken. The IPO process is broken. I tried... to flip that on its head with SPACs. Some work, some didn't, many didn't in the end. Many of mine didn't work out at the end. There was a period where it looked like it was working, but these are all attempts at changing the liquidity cycle of these companies because the way that things stand today, we are not in a sustainable industry.
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It is if you raise funds and think about fee generation, But it is not if you think about returning money to founders, LPs, getting employees compensated for many years of oil that they put in. It's a very tough game right now.
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It's like slightly above Elon's one. Really? Oh, just behind you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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There's no DPI possible. You nailed it and Sachs nailed it. And the thing to remember is both of those two things now work together to erode the return stream for the general partner, but really, most importantly, for the limited So I do think that we are in a situation where the average returns are going to decay by 50 to 100% because of what SAC said and because of what you said.
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On top of that, I don't think we know what the actual cap structure needs to be for a successful AI company. Is it 20 people that does the work of 2000 now because they have all of these agents and systems that work on their behalf? If that's true, giving that company hundreds of millions of dollars is actually the opposite of what you want to do.
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Well, I think that if you look at the one from last year, Graham Allison, where he got a standing ovation, the thing is there are these village elders where they are at a point in their life where they're willing to just be a truth teller. But oftentimes they're deplatformed and we have the ability to actually bring some of the smartest of them on and give them a voice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You want to give that company 10 or 15 and then let them cook. And so we have a right sizing of capital problem that needs to happen. The data would tell you, though, that the industry understands that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So the fact that we've gone from 50% of people being able to raise a fund to 12% means that a lot of people will get washed out of the industry, less capital being raised, which probably is foreshadowing the fact that these companies will need a lot less capital. But that has a lot of implications as it ripples through our economy. I think it's very good for the early stage.
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I think you guys are very good there. You've talked about how it's good for you. It's very complicated, I think, for the expansion and growth stage capital. And then I think there's going to be another turn on what happens on the IPO markets because you can't have so many companies waiting. With very, very few ways of accessing public market capital and exposure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
I just think that is fundamentally broken and we're going to have to reinvent. We tried once with SPACs. We're going to have to go back to the drawing board and try again. Correct listings, secondary markets that are more fluid.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Look at the thing that Saks just tweeted. Everybody's course correcting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Those middle vintages are just going to be garbanzo beans, 21, 22. Well, you know, that's such an interesting point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think you're saying the dirty little secret of the venture business, which is at some point people get to a fork in the road. If they hyper-optimize for returns, I'll put Benchmark, I'll put Fred Wilson and USV, I'll put Sequoia's early stage fund. They have to introduce time diversity. They keep the funds small and they look to hit grand slams.
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And it's incredible how much they resonate because what they say is so logical and sensible. That's a really important thing that we have now at our disposal. And I think that people really appreciate it. So I think we're doing a really important job in doing that. And now the question is, what village elders do we get next year to keep being truth tellers?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But there are many other people, and I would say the most of the set outside of that, take the road more traveled, which is then you optimize for size, which then becomes a fee game, and so you optimize for velocity. Get the funds out as quick as possible, raise a new fund. They have no intention of generating returns. because they have no ability to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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When you have absolutely no time diversity in this business, in a pool of capital, you're giving away one of your best edges. David just talked about it. As a smart practitioner, he was able to nurture these companies and all of a sudden they start to win. If you've all of a sudden flushed all your money in fund one, then you go to fund two, fund three. By the time something in fund one hits,
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What are you going to do? You're going to cross the funds, or you're going to justify taking money from the left hand to pay the right hand, or you're just going to let your ownership wane because you frittered all the money away. These are all the problems that most of these folks have encumbered themselves with. It's very difficult to get out of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's going to take – look, in fairness to them, they probably got good while the getting's good, so they'll make a ton of money in fees, but they will not be able to raise funds. And those fees are not clawed back, folks, for those of you playing along at home.
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Start companies from your lips to God's ears. Love you guys. I got to go. Love you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I think 2020, you have to put it at big asterisks because the question is, what would have happened had there not been COVID and had there not been an entire global shutdown? So if you go back to that chart, you could probably just extrapolate and cut out that part that's flat, because the part that's flat from 2020 to 2022 was largely artificially created.
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Because on top of that, we injected so much money into the economy, the reality is we probably would have raised at some rate of change that you could have predicted from 2016. So what do you take away from that? I think that you have to realize we're at a point in the economy where you cut rates because there's tension. And there's tension between employment and unemployment.
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It's marijuana. It's Freeburg's version of Founder Mode.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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There's tension between earnings, growth, and contraction. And so it's a stimulatory move. So if you look through that stimulatory move, why is the Fed doing this and why will they cut probably all the way down to 2% or 3% by the end of 2026? It's because we now need to stimulate the economy.
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So the reason why markets tend to fall once the rate cut cycle starts is because the next couple of quarters sort of demonstrate what I think the Fed is expecting, which is that there's pressure in the economy. We have not seen that flow through in earnings or in how companies describe markets on the field, by and large, except for a few.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I think this part of the cycle now will be about all of these companies telling us whether there's nothing to see here or whether there is actual real pressure. And if there is real pressure, it'll probably look like the several times before where you're just going to have to contract the value of financial assets because they're just not worth as much when they're earning less. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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That's the key thing. If you look at the dot plot and if you look at where the smart financial actors are betting where rates end. So it's hard to sort of like look at any point in time, 50 now, 25 later. What does it all mean? It's very hard to know. But what is much clearer is where do we think terminal rates will be even in the next 18 months?
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And it is dramatically lower for where they are now. And I think that support sacks that argument that you just made, which is if you're going to basically cut this aggressively over the next year to year and a half by the estimates of very smart financial actors whose job it is to spend every day observing the Fed, then they must see something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Because otherwise, as you said, you could take a much more gradual approach. And so I think that the smart financial actors are guessing recession or guessing contraction. I think what they're also guessing is similar to nonfarm payrolls. We're going to go through a couple of difficult GDP revisions, probably downward.
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And I think that will have an impact to people's sense of how the economy is doing even more than what their sense is today, which is already teetering on it's at best okay. And I think all of that has to play itself out. So it's going to be a very complicated and dynamic fall in that respect. Yeah.
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Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
This was a assassination attempt. You owe the people answers. You owe President Trump answers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And instead, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
We'll let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, S. I squeeze. We need to get merch.
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And I think what they do is they make, frankly, these kinds of achievements much more high level in the sense that you're bringing together people from Hollywood and people from Silicon Valley and the awareness is up and it's just incredibly well produced. And yeah, it's really a cool thing to be a part of. But I mean, seeing some of these people are very intimidating. I sat beside Vin Diesel.
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There are two separate things, and I think it's important to deal with them individually. Groups of people in society in a democracy should have a right to protest. That's absolutely fundamental, and I think they can raise a lot of issues that could otherwise get swept under the carpet.
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When that stuff impedes the public functioning of society for other people, then I think there's a responsibility for law enforcement and other people to act and make sure that that is better managed. So shutting down an entire bridge is not only disruptive, it can be really dangerous. Of course. And it can hurt your cause because then people dislike the cause because it hurt them. Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Typically what happens is you're supposed to file for a permit to protest And when you get that, there are areas that are cordoned off and then people are allowed to express their views. That's a really healthy form of democracy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Going rogue like this will only blow up in people's faces because the folks that are somewhat sympathetic will eventually get burned by this experience and turn against them. So that's one set of issues. I think that's just people going rogue. And I think that you can't be tolerant of that kind of chaos. There should be organized protests, but not disorganized chaos.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Law enforcement needs to get a control of that. Inside of a company, I think this is different. It's this weird thing that I see, which is like what I would call like left on left violence. It's like left leaning people creating all of these distractions and demonstrations inside of left leaning organizations for not being left leaning enough.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so it's kind of like a little bit nutty because I think it actually shows how totally naive these employees are and what basic business understanding they have. The first and foremost being that they are at-will employees.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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These are not people that are contracted players in the NBA or are part of a union, okay, where you have guaranteed employment through some mechanism or some arbitration process to even be let go. The fact that you don't even understand that you are at will means that you are there because you want to be there. And Google allows you to be there because they choose for you to be there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And at any point, if either of you break a covenant, you can be gone. That kind of stuff I think is very distracting and it just belies a poor understanding of what you're there to do. Google is a for-profit business and they are in the business of generating maximum profit on behalf of their shareholders.
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They are also incentivized to do that in a way that achieves a mission and a set of values that the majority of their employees agree with. And the fact that a small cohort of people can try to hijack and sabotage that overall direction, I think is very misguided.
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Oh, really? That was super cool. He is a super nice guy. And on the other side of me was someone that actually Sachs knows, Toby Emmerich, who was the chairman of Warner Brothers. So just talking to these guys was super cool. Moving it to Los Angeles was a great move.
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I mean, he's like, I don't even know how Nat and I keep getting invited to this, but like to say we were outclassed is an understatement.
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Jacob, what do you think?
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The craziest thing is they give a youth Breakthrough Award. So the Breakthrough Prize is this beautiful globe. And then the junior winner gets like a smaller version, very appropriate. And it was a video of this kid in India who had won it a few years ago and then went off to MIT and then graduated. And then the video is of him coming back to Bangalore because his sister had won this year.
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That's what I always think about when I see those things, when you block streets and stuff or you block airports or you block these throughways. There's a lot of just normal everyday people trying to live their life who are probably very sympathetic to what you stand for.
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But when you disrupt their everyday lives and or threaten their physical security, they're not going to think that that's worth it.
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To Sax's point, I actually would have had more respect for these people if they actually protested the war. But they didn't do that. They had a very discreet, specific claim, which was that they wanted to dissolve a business deal that Google had to provide cloud services to the state of Israel called Project Nimbus.
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And I think that's such a discreet thing that it's hard to understand that those 28 people would have even enough knowledge of what that is. But it sounds like a cloud hosting deal. Well, what's hosted there? And it could be any number of things. And I suspect if it's a billion dollar a year deal, it's many things. It's probably like the Israeli DMV. Is that really what you want?
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And I think that it would have been much of a more powerful thing to do to protest the actual war if that's what they cared about.
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Would you back a robot that had weapon systems on it? I think if you want to summarize what we said last week, it's like there are all kinds of businesses where you'll end up investing in it. And over time, as it morphs, some of us will be faced with some of those decisions and it'll frankly depend on what is the alternative in that moment.
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So I don't think anybody of us are going into go and build a nuclear bomb, but you should not be naive that if you're building nuclear reactors, you could end up being in a situation where that thing gets licensed into a thing that you either agree or disagree with. So this is my point is I think that those kinds of answers or those kinds of questions
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are missing the nuances, and the nuances are very important. So it's impossible to answer this question in a thoughtful way, I think, would be my honest answer. Okay. Sax, any closing thoughts here?
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And he presented it to the sister. And all I could think of was, this is an incredible achievement by like a 16-year-old. And literally at the same time, my 16-year-old was like, dad, the chicken tenders from DoorDash have got arrived.
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Yeah. And I'm accepting it. I think they would have gotten just as much press if they actually protested the war. I think in a week from now, everybody will forget what Project Nimbus is. The odds that it gets canceled are less than zero and everybody will move on. And it will not add to the drumbeat, as Zach said, of people that may be eventually on the right side of this issue, theoretically.
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I say theoretically because that stone is still yet to be overturned on that topic. So I think that they missed the mark. And I think that the part of the press that people glommed on to was it was happening inside of a company in real time and there was video of it.
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I don't think it is. I think it's taking up a lot of headspace amongst breathless journalists. I don't think it matters to the public at large. I don't think anybody cares.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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What is it? Break the rewards?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So it's like, it's really incredible and inspiring. But fortunately, don't worry, my 16-year-old was able to get the chicken tenders and everything was fine. Oh, okay, good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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What do we do? It's hilarious. By the way, the other thing I'll say is the person that performed is really amazing, Charlie Puth. And the reason I say it is if you Google Charlie Puth, This guy, he's a young guy in his early 20s, I'm guessing. He is so talented. There's all these videos of Charlie Puth where he'll make a random noise, like he'll clink a Coke bottle with a fork.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Chamath, what do you see in this inkblot of a product? Neither of those two cohorts. I think that incredibly motivated, dedicated entrepreneurs don't even know that this is happening and don't care.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The idea that in 2009, 10 or 11, right, that when all the rockets weren't working, you know, and Elon was back against the wall, that he was reading TechCrunch or getting upset because a product failed, some other random product that had nothing to do with his, I think is laughable. I think no great entrepreneur cares.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I don't think Freeberg is going to change what's happening at a hollow based on, what is this thing called? Humane. Right. Friedberg, have you changed? Have you made decisions? Are you sadder today in Ohala when you walked into the office to manage your team? OK, so there you go. There's your answer. You're failing on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Acorn-fed beef. Yes. For sure, high IQ. Pigs, very high IQ. I saw that cow playing chess before he was served for dinner.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Here's the theme, Jason. Here's the theme, Jason. The problem is that I think people right now, the real Rorschach test is if you are so easily distracted, you probably don't have enough to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I don't want to call it entitlement, but I think the reality is that if you get caught up in all of these silly little fake battles or decisions, I think what it really means is that you're not busy enough and or you're not working on something that matters enough to you. Because when either of those two things are true, people tend to have blinders on and they are super focused.
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And then he'll record it. And then he'll put it into these digital editing tools. And then he'll make like an entire five-minute song using that as the base, like as the basic building block. The guy is so talented. Anyways, it was a very cool event.
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And they just don't have an opinion. They don't care. Like, honestly, many of these topics today, I really don't care. And it's not because I'm better or worse or smarter or dumber. It's because I'm so overworked right now. I don't have time to have an opinion on this stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The breakthrough prize was amazing. It's like observing exotic animals in their natural habitat.
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Okay. First of all, shout out to Yuri and Julia. It is incredible. There were two moments where I cried. This woman goes up on stage to give an award to the people that had made this investment in cystic fibrosis. Yeah. And she says, my child was born with cystic fibrosis, and then my second child was born with cystic fibrosis, and then my second child died. She said that, I just burst into tears.
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Yeah, it's basically what you're telling me is it's an overpriced device that could give you first degree burns. And it will ruin your sweaters. And doesn't answer the questions that you ask.
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But then do I think the questions or do I have to say it out loud so it looks like I'm talking to myself?
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It's some really cool, interesting features. It's just like, it's not quite there yet. Who invested in it? Let's not make fun of it. Let's make fun of the investors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Sam Altman. Shout out to Sam.
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I'll take the other side when you're done.
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You're saying something totally different. That's, that's utility. Of course, you'll find a device will give you utility. I thought you were saying something else, which is everybody's going to have wearables. And I want to take the exact opposite side of that.
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I totally get that, you know, the use of an accelerometer or whatever in a watch or in a band that you wear on your wrist for a workout. And I think that that's valuable. Or heart rate. A glycemic monitor so that you could... All of that stuff makes super sense for you as an individual. But that's not an experience where you're engaging with it to... to replace some other social interaction.
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That's just you getting utility as you live your life. What I'm saying is the idea that you start to rely on a device as your interface into the world, I would take the exact other side of the bet, which is I think that humans are getting so sick and tired of being of only communicating in these very rigid ways.
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Like I'm telling you, like if you look at our children's generation, they don't know how to make eye contact. They don't know how to talk. And I think it's going to come back and bite them in the ass. And so I think the pendulum is going to swing in the other direction where it's like, okay, enough of this stuff.
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Let's actually look each other in the eye and talk to each other the way that humans were meant to be. And I think that in that, Devices like a glucose monitor or a band has value, but I don't think it's going to be this interface where you're sign languaging it while you're at Coachella. I think you're going to rip the devices off and actually be at Coachella without any devices.
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Well, this has got massive privacy things recording your entire life with a pendant, man. No, thank you. This is why I said what I said. I do think Saks is right that ultimately... you'll have some kind of brain interface, because I do think a chip implant of some kind is very valuable.
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But what I'm also saying is that I think that that will actually lessen the social acceptability of these visible devices that are constantly getting in between you and another person. And so the idea that we're kind of already in a quasi surveillance state, and now we're going to increase that by and factorial to the number of people, I think is very depressing. It is depressing.
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And you know what?
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They do it in my kids. It's actually, Jason, these special- Pouches? Pouches. Yeah, so those are the pouches comedians use, like Chappelle at his shows. Chappelle uses it, Kevin uses them. Yeah, exactly. And they're great.
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And then what what the school now also teaches the kids, at least our school, which I found really interesting, is the graduated form of that is they actually now allow you to put it in a envelope because they're training the kid like the pouch you can't get access to. You have to go back to the locks, unlock device.
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And then I saw that my son last week had it actually in a in a white envelope and he had to close the envelope and just keep it with him. as like a way of graduating from the prison form of keeping the phone away to like, you know, having it in your pocket. So the schools are trying to do a lot to try to teach these kids not to be so dependent on this.
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You get the octopus. I think that Sean missed you. Yeah. He did. By the way, Sean experimented with some Greek cheese that you grill. That was pretty delicious. Oh, hooli. Hooli cheese. Hooli.
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There was a Black Mirror episode on this exact idea.
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Yeah.
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It's actually not even neutral. It's a net negative and a drag on the entire night. Absolutely.
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Those are the best nights, yeah.
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I deleted TikTok about a month ago. It's been liberating. I was a slave to that app. I couldn't believe how much- how much TikTok I was consuming after it was gone because I couldn't find anything to replace it. And then I stumbled into the fact that YouTube has YouTube Shorts and there is a lot of that content, but it's terrible and the algorithm is really bad. Yeah, it sucks.
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And so fortunately, I just stopped using YouTube.
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Profits, air quotes, profits, air quotes.
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But Freeberg, they know basic math. Congress knows basic math. How do they? How do they? What was the intent here? Yeah.
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Well, doesn't it mean, though, that if you run it at breakeven and without a lot of growth, by year five, you'll be back to where you were. So you really have to cover the taxes in years one through four.
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Right.
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I think Jason mentioned it earlier, and I think it's the key thing, which is what is R&D then? And maybe you just move things to cogs and just be done with it.
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Okay, look.
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I remember when I joined the ownership group of the Warriors, I had to file this enormous document. And one of the things that they really dig into is whether you've bet before. And they make it really, really clear that it is completely not allowed to bet.
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And the only way that you can bet is if you're betting on non-basketball and if you were in Vegas and you go to a casino and a troop sports book. That's the only time it's tolerated. The thing with all of these sites, FanDuel and DraftKings is they did deals with the leagues where part of the feature is that when there is really crazy asymmetric betting on something that's obscure,
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they report it back to the leagues so the leagues know how to look at it. Because typically what happens is if you're talking like a very well-contested basketball, Jason, you have a relatively balanced book, right? And what the goal is, is to figure out where are the sharps betting, meaning the really smart money guys, and everybody else is a square, and most of retail is a square, okay?
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They're going to lose their money. And so the goal is to always find out where the sharps are going. But there are some of these bets, and in this case, this is why they found out, when you have something being bet that's very obscure in size, These apps immediately go back to the league and say, this just happened.
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Before what would happen is like all of these bookies would be able to have relationships with some of these players. Sometimes they would also have relationships with some of the refs and it has spilled over. So the NBA has had to deal with an example where one of the refs were, I think he was betting on some games.
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Tim Donaghy and then he was point shaving. So this has been going on for a long time. It moved into the realm of it being automated with algorithms looking out, the fact that this kid didn't have anybody on his team that explained that DraftKings and FanDuel are going to send this data to the NBA is inexcusable because maybe the kid would not have done it.
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Yeah, it has to be lifetime.
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Well, the other thing I'll say, and I mentioned this a few weeks ago, everything is being gamified. You have an entire population that seemingly in America, consumer spending still goes up. Folks are relatively still flush with cash. There's lots of free cash flow.
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There are new and more aggressive forms of stimulus constantly coming down the pike, whether it's student loan forgiveness or something else, right? Governments are inventing new and new ways of buying votes. That's going to put more and more money in people's hands. That means a larger and larger percentage of it will bleed into these kinds of things. And it's not just sports gambling.
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There was an article in the Wall Street Journal about this woman who's a well-respected lawyer who became totally addicted playing like a bingo app, right? And lost her entire life. So these forms of gambling and addiction are just going to skyrocket, I think, because you have these apps that are really incredibly well-engineered. To get you super hooked.
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And then the adrenaline rush and the dopamine rush of actually winning money is a thing that for some people, they can't turn off once they feel it for the first time.
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They get too into it.
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This is what I'm going to tell you. The last thing I'll say on this is when I was in high school, so in the early 90s in Ontario in Canada, they introduced sports betting as a way of generating revenue for the government. What I will tell you is that my entire high school, all the boys, not the girls, We became instant gambling addicts. We were figuring out how to put bets on.
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Most of it was betting in hockey because that's the sport that we all knew the best growing up in Ottawa. But it was all day, every day. It consumed us. And I think when you look inside of these apps, you're seeing a lot of young men with a lot of free cash and a lot of time getting sucked into the gamification of this thing. I think it's going to be a big problem.
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And they're doing something very smart, which is they're paying huge endorsement deals to the players as well. Yes. I think DraftKings did something with LeBron. This is genius because when you get that ingratiated, you'll never get ripped out. Because if they become a huge part of the off-court revenue model for these players... We're locked in.
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When I got admitted to the ownership group in the NBA, I stopped. And I probably made three bets since then. All three were like on the Super Bowl at a casino, so it was legal when I was still an owner. And I've not done it since. And I've refused to download these apps because I love sports. And I think that if I added this to it,
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I just don't think it would be good for me, so I don't want to do it.
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Are you able to be vegetarian? Were you able to find good vegetarian or veggie options in Austin? Talking to me? Yeah.
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Do you never share information where people can actually like get to know you?
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Come on.
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Have you spent time, Sax, like studying like openings and like studying like specific lines. I don't even know if I'm using the right language here.
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I mean, I ran a casino in my high school. Was that the... Yeah, I mean, I ran a little blackjack game where the rich kids could play and I was the house. And I would make a few extra hundred bucks a week. Nice. And that was great because like, you know, between that and my job at Burger King, it really helped. And then I would go and take that. And I actually came pretty decent at Blackjack.
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And I would go, there would be these, what's called charity casinos. So casinos in Ottawa, Ontario were illegal. But if they were to raise charity for various charities, they were allowed. And so my friend and I would show up at these things and just run them over.
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I'll tell you my two scams after you tell us yours. Well, by the way, I'll tell you, I had a bad debt situation in my lunch game. You know, I used to let people bet up to a buck. Okay, so four or five guys up, you know, 25 cents, 50 cents or a dollar. And one guy, he like demanded an expanded credit line. And so I gave him up to two bucks. How many boxes of Ziti did he go down?
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And one lunch, he lost 80 bucks and it took me three months to get paid. It was the worst experience. 80 boxes of Ziti? No, $80. No, I know. I'm just doing a soprano. I had to sweat this guy for three months to get my $80. He was rich, too. His parents were rich.
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Ooh, say more. Yeah, I don't know. I grinded out fake IDs with a buddy of mine.
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We used Harvard Graphics. Zach, what were you using? I was using Harvard Graphics.
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Does it taste like beef?
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I don't remember. I don't remember. The key... I had one drink. Now, the key in the fake ID game is to use your month and day that's yours and then just change the year. Yes. That's the key. That's the key.
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And then you present an award to the person that actually is helping them stamp out the disease. We celebrated the people that found the gene that caused Parkinson's. And then, yeah, I mean, the people at that is pretty incredible. It's in LA, right? They did it in Los Angeles? Yeah. I mean, like, look, Yuri Milner and Julia Milner, Zuck and Priscilla Chan and Anne Wojcicki and Sergey Brin.
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Is that the largest, most listened to podcast in the world?
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Oh, you're manifesting.
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Just so you know, tonight is a murderer's row and Hellmuth is flying back. You saw the lineup. I'm very excited to see what happens today. Is Jason Kuhn coming or no? Yeah.
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In your life. Just you could not be more low-key and self-effacing than Roble and Kuhn for how good they are.
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So I would say the most dynamic
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would probably be Robo because Robo has the most experience playing super, super high stakes cash.
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I think Kuhn is the most precise and like true to GTO.
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Those six people are the ones that organized this breakthrough prize. And I think it's just modern version of the Nobel, which tries to really shine a spotlight on people doing really groundbreaking work in physics and math and life sciences. And so you get people that have just done things that are just very practical, and are very real.
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Hard to exploit. I mean, Kuhn is impossible to exploit. Impossible. No mistakes. No mistakes. No mistakes. Robo knows how to gamble in certain spots. Kuhn knows how to be unexploitable. And the third player is Falamuth. And the third person is Helmuth. And Helmuth just loses his mind.
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It is so... No, the thing with Helmuth is he's capable, unlike anyone I've ever seen, of folding in spots that are... And he's correct, by the way. I've seen Helmuth fold ace-king in spots that none of us would ever do it. I've seen him fold kings in spots that are basically impossible. So Helmuth is able to get these soul reads on people that I think... are amazing. Yeah.
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But look, the higher and higher the stakes get, the more and more I think Robo will be comfortable and Kuhn will just go to a playbook that he knows and trusts.
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Today is the day. Congratulations, child. Oh, congratulations. How old, Chamath? No gender name or any other specifications, folks. We can't tip anybody off. No pronouns. We can't tip anybody off. No pronouns. Yes, absolutely. So how are they experiencing their birthday? This child has experienced a wonderful life, and this child is an incredible person.
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Not to tell tales out of school, but somebody that we all know in our group chat posted something about the fact that the consumer growth had stalled. I don't know how they knew that, that maybe they got some data or maybe they're an investor. You guys know what I'm talking about. And they said that they're trying to reinvigorate growth into the consumer app at OpenAI.
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I wrote this in my annual letter, but there are these phases of growth. And when you look at social networks as a perfect example, Friendster was magical when it was first created, right? And then you had MySpace that just ran circles around them because Friendster didn't really invest the money and the quality that it took to create a moat. And then MySpace really wasn't able to compete.
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for whom I have tremendous admiration and love and compassion and hope for the future. All right. And did you order them some chicken fingers? I cannot comment on who this person is. Chicken fingers. Are you talking, of course, about Phil Hellmuth? Your child, Phil Hellmuth. Can we please talk about last weekend's festivities in Vegas? What a disaster he is. Oh, my God.
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So we were, you know, Facebook, we were the eighth or ninth when we showed up on the scene and we ran circles around everybody. I think what it means is that there are these phases of product development which exist in many markets. This market, I think, is going through the same thing.
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And right now, we're in the first, what I would call primordial ooze phase, which is everybody's kind of like running around like a chicken with their heads cut off. There's all these core basic capabilities that are still so magical when you see them. But we all know that five and 10 years from now, these things will be table stakes, right? And what Freeberg just showed is a table that
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of many companies and many trillions of market cap, all effectively running to the same destination. So I think where we are is probably within two years of where the basic building blocks are standardized. And then I think the real businesses get built. So I will maintain my perspective here, which is the quote unquote Facebook of AI has yet to be created.
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But our friend Jason, just to kind of complete the thought, said something about the premium conversion, right? That's what he said. I don't know how he knows that.
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Guys, just so you guys know.
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So much fun to make.
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I had such a lovely time coming home, to be totally honest with you.
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I think you're totally right. I think that's such a really important observation. That's why I think the incentive for these folks is going to be to push this stuff into the open source. Because if you solve a problem that's operationally necessary for your business, but it isn't the core part of your business,
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What incentive do you have to really keep investing in this for the next five and 10 years to improve it? You're much better off like Klarna, for example, right? We talked about the amazing improvement and savings that Klarna had by improving customer support. Release it in the open source, guys. Let the rest of the community take it over so that it's available to everybody else.
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Otherwise, you're going to be stuck supporting it. And then if and when you ever wanted to switch out a model... GPT-4.0, 4 to 4.0 to Claude to Lama, it's going to be near impossible and it's going to be costly. So I also think, Sax, the incentive to just push towards open source in this market, if you will, is so much more meaningful than any other market. Yeah.
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Explain what it is. So there was this moment where when you were trying to build data centers, you'd have these like one you rack mounted kind of like machines that you used. And what Facebook observed was there was only a handful of companies that provided it. And so it was unnecessarily expensive.
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And so Facebook just designed their own and then released the specs online, just kind of said, here it is. And they went to these Taiwanese manufacturers and other folks and said, please make these for your cost plus a few bucks. And it was revolutionary in that market because it allowed this open platform to sort of embrace this very critical element that everybody needs.
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poker dash update oh my god yeah well he kept tweeting and he leaked every single person who's there and the jets and the jet numbers he's like look here's me and elon elon came by for my dinner no no no it was worse than that no it's worth that he said i got to hang out with our guy elon for 10 minutes and 14 seconds he intercepted him at the valet
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And I think there's going to be a lot of these examples inside of AI because the costs are so extreme, so much more than just building a data center for a traditional web app, that the incentives to do it are just so meaningful.
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It feels killer-esque. J. Cal, can you do that again in Christopher Walken voice, please?
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Brian Ryan is my guy.
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I'll hire Brian. I would reconstitute Kraft.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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How many minutes? 10 minutes and 14 seconds. He had the exact time, down to the second. Oh, my God.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Can I just make a comment on this? It's just so clean. JCal was the key for me in abandoning Slack. He told me two or three years ago, he called me and he said, I have, you can tell me the exact channels. I eliminated some channels that were random. There was like two or three channels that you banned that your Slack instance wasn't allowed to have. And I was like, this is genius.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And I went in and I was like, all of our companies should just eliminate these channels. And we could only get like 20% or 30% compliance. But it really started to turn me off Slack because I would get caught in these threads that were just so totally useless. And I thought, why aren't people working?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And this is really great because you cannot blather on about nonsense in Glue, which I find really useful. Well, this is what happens when Slack- We use it at 80, 90, just so you know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
There's a job to be done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's flipping coins.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No, the Baccarat sweat is the most incredible performative act ever. In the casino.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Oh, like you're curling your mustache like an evil villain? It's the evil villain. And then you call it, oh my God, no spotter. If you see it, no spotter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Then you lose a small house and then you're like, oh, let's try it again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Saks is like, how do I wet my beaker? Saks is interrogating the potato lines. I've never... What's going on?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Tell us about the patents and how important patents play a role in this, because isn't it like one of Monsanto's big things, like they just go and sue everybody into the ground or whatever?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Freeburg, when you look at a potato, how do you figure out what part of their DNA is the drought-resistant part? Yeah. And then how do you make sure that that's turned on? So even if you inherit that chromosome, is there some potential interaction with the... Generally, if we can... So these are what are called markers, genetic markers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So Helmuth asked us to play in the high stakes poker game on PokerGo. So it was me, Helmuth, Stanley, Sammy, House, and then Jen Tilly and Nick Airball and Roble. So most of the guys from the House game plus Jen Tilly and Nick Airball. Jennifer Tilly is amazing. What a great human and actress. Well, listen to this hand. literally the second hand of the actual poker game. Gentilly
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So how do you want to make money, Friedberg? Are you going to sell the seeds? Are you going to become the direct farmer? Are you going to become food as a service? Like, how do you... make the most money from this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No comment. No comment. Yeah. I get tilted by the quality of the Driscoll's blueberries. Let me tell you something about the Driscoll's blueberries. Also, the Driscoll, I've had only one batch of a Driscoll's strawberry that was just off the charts. And every 19,847 other batches I bought have been total sh**.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Yes, then cut it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Oh my God, how great would that be?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I'm going to go in as soon as this is done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Can you go back to the patent stuff? Like, are you some seed person?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
is in the big blind. No, sorry, she's under the gun. She raises. Hausenbold three bets. It comes all the way around to me on the button. I look and I have pocket kings. I ship the whole cheeseburger. Comes back to Tilly. She ships. House ships. Listen to these hands. Jen Tilly has aces. Jeff Hausenbold has kings. I have kings. Oh, my God. I've never seen a cooler hand like this in my life.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I speak on behalf of J. Cal and I said, we will gladly invest a million at a 10 cap in both of your businesses. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
We will work our way into J. Cal. J. Cal and I will do the deal. We'll wire the money. We'll wire the money. A little million to each of you guys at a 10 cap. Thank you. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Congratulations to both of you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
There's a great clip of Millay. He goes on this talk show in Argentina and the talk show host, she's just so excited and greets him. And then they start making out. Have you guys seen this? What? They're just guys out of control. Full on French kissing each other. It's hilarious. Yeah, Soros has been very famous for this invest and investigate thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's like a smart strategy for very, very liquid public market investors that have the curiosity that he does. I don't have much of a reaction to that. I think that the thing with Argentina that's worth taking away is when you've spent decades casting about and misallocating capital and running your economy into the ground, the formula for fixing it is exactly the same.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
You cut entitlements and you reinvigorate the economy. And so the thing we need to take away is if we don't get our shit together, that's probably what we're going to have to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
We'll all be out. In the second hand of the game. Anyways. Wow. Don't worry, guys.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Chantilly. She tripled up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Then I stacked her right. Anyways, I don't want to reveal the game, but it was wonderful, this one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
She's very charming. Great actress. Very charming. Great actress.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Right. Absolutely. So that happens a lot. I didn't even know what a Facebook was when I joined Facebook. It's an American college phenomenon. No, seriously. You don't have that in Canada.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
But speaking of bets, Jaykal, you told me this week that you just made your largest investment ever. Tell us about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Yeah, you're 80-90ing. So at 80-90, we have this funny thing where we've made it a verb. Whenever you see somebody doing high quality work at a quarter to a tenth of the cost, we say, oh, you just 80-90ed it. Correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
The way that companies will work in five and 10 years, I don't think, guys, any of us are going to recognize what it's going to look like.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I got myself and my co-founders at 8090, we get this stream of emails of companies that are like, or people that are like, we have this product idea or we have this small product. One of the emails I got, this is crazy, was from a guy that's like, oh, we've 8090 Photoshop. So like we have like a much, much cheaper version of Photoshop.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And the guy was doing like a few million bucks of ARR and growing really nicely. But then it turned out that somebody saw that and then 8090'd it. So then there's an open source version of that thing. And so to your point, Friedberg, none of these big companies stand a chance. Yeah. Everything is going to get cheaper and faster.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Not because the products aren't good, but like JCal is going to go off and experiment with this. SAC's going to go off and build a product. You know, as every time that you're at a boundary condition, we're all going to explore, well, maybe we could do this with AI. Maybe we shouldn't hire a person. Not because we're trying to be mean about it, but it's because the normal, natural thing to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And the OPEX of companies is just going to go down, which means the size of companies are going to shrink, which means the amount of money you need is going to go down. And that's just going to create the ability for these companies to sell those products cheaper.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Did you guys see the Google thing? Did you guys see the Google AI Gemini stuff?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
The workflow stuff in Gmail also kicked ass.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
The demo that they showed was you get a bunch of receipts and the person giving the demo, she said something to the effect of, well, wouldn't it be great if like, you know, the AI assistant were able to find all the receipts and then aggregated them and put them in a folder and then also actually generated an expense report or like a spreadsheet on the fly? It... It's crazy. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I got to say, I think that it's free to change your mind. And so it's good to do that. Oh.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I change my mind all the time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Sorry, I know to blow your ears out. I think the Google thing is pretty special. Between last week's announcement of isomorphic labs, which let's be honest, that's just a multi-hundred billion dollar company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Look at a company like Royalty Pharma. So Royalty Pharma, it's a phenomenal business run by a phenomenal entrepreneur, Pablo Lagareta. But what is that business? That's buying 2% and 3% royalties of drugs at work. And you can see how much value that those guys have created, which is essentially 90% EBITDA margin business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's outrageous because they're in the business of analyzing and then buying small slivers. I think something like isomorphic ends up being of that magnitude of margin scale, but at an order of magnitude or two orders of magnitude higher revenue. So if you fold that back into a Google algorithm,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
If you think about what they're doing now on the search side, these guys may be really kicking some ass here. So I think that the reports of their death were premature and exaggerated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I would like to take this opportunity to wish... My child, happy birthday. I absolutely f***ing love you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Love you, boys. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And to your point, a lot of the people that come on and increasingly a lot of people ask to come on because they know we're not journalists. And so for all of those folks that expect us to be journalists. That's not what we are. We're for entrepreneurs. We're for business people. We're for friends. We're for technologists. We're for curious people. We're for poker players.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
But we're not for journalists. And so we're going to ask whatever we feel like asking. Sometimes those things will touch a chord because it's what you wanted to have asked. And sometimes we won't go to a place whether we didn't have time to or whether we forgot or whether we chose not to. And I think it's important to have that disclaimer. Like we have day jobs and this is what we do
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
To coalesce a bunch of information in the way that we're thinking about the world. So we are not journalists. So please don't have that expectation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No, but that's because you asked it from a position of curiosity. You weren't trying to catch the guy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
This is my point. That's why it comes out differently. And that's why I think people enjoy these conversations. And sometimes we don't get to the other kind of answer because I'm not interested in trying to gotcha somebody that's working hard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No, no, no, but I'm saying it rarely lands on the same day. Today is the day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Love you guys. Nice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they're all just useless. It's like this sexual tension that they just need to release somehow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
That was unreal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
You want to hear an interesting factoid? Yes, please. There was an article in Bloomberg, I sent it to Nick, but people have been tracking the S&P 500 index versus the equal weighted index. So when you calculate the S&P 500 index, you weight it for the market cap. So the top seven or eight companies obviously get a lot more weight in it. And so they look at the spread between that index
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
and an equal weighted index where every 500 companies are, you know, the 500 companies are each equal. And what's interesting is the spread right now is the most extreme since March of 2000, right before the dot-com crash. Jesus Christ. Thanks, Chamath. Well, this is Bloomberg's data, so I'm just repeating it. I read that article, but... That's incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's a tie-in to the AI thing, I guess, that we're going to talk about soon, but... Next, yeah. We could be at the end of just an enormous hype cycle here where we have to contract the equity market. That's probably not a bad thing, by the way, because as Zach said, one of the things that you have to do is I think you have to underwrite to a rate of return.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And right now, nobody knows really what to do because... valuations would tell you that you should price to the low end, but then it's not really clear what the risk-free rate of return should be. So everybody's just sort of like they're shrugging and their arms are in the air and nobody knows what to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So if you really want to get the economy moving at some point, you're going to have to reset something. You're going to have to reset rates or you're going to have to set the equity risk premium in the stock market You're going to have to reset people's expectations around what is actually happening in the economy. And right now, we're in this limbo where none of those things have been decided.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
But there are all of these weird moments, like data points that you could use to kind of just justify your bias, quite honestly. But the point is that I think there's a lot of question marks right now, not a lot of answers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
You cannot spend this kind of money and show no incremental revenue potential. So while this is incredible for NVIDIA, the chicken is coming home to roost. Because if you do not start seeing revenue flow to the bottom line of these companies that are spending $26 billion a quarter, the market cap of NVIDIA is not what the market cap of NVIDIA should be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
bare chests. Can I tell you how good Italian white wine is on a hot, humid day? It may be the closest thing to ambrosia in modern society. It's just so good. Is that your sports drink? It's just like you get off the... I can picture you on like a treadmill. I drink so much white wine during the summertime, and I eat gelato every day, and I tend to still lose
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And all of these other companies are going to get punished for spending this kind of money. Where are all these newfangled things that we're supposed to see that justifies $100 billion of chip spend a year, $200 billion of energy spend, $100 billion of all this other stuff? We're now spending $750 billion. This is on the order of a national...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
transfer payment and we've seen nothing to show for it except that you can mimic somebody's voice. It doesn't all hang together yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Well, I think we're all converging on the same realization, which is you can't spend a trillion dollars and only have toy apps to show for it. So I think we've all been amazed by these AI demos. I think the four of us have talked pretty incessantly about it now for 18 plus months ever since we saw the first open AI demos. So that's great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And the underlying technology, I think, is really important. But it's also... important to acknowledge that the underlying technology has enormous gaps. There's gaps in the quality of the products that can be created to not have hallucinations. Those gaps are too large right now for them to be used reliably in production settings unless you have a very defined scope.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
A couple pounds by the time I get home.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
If you have a defined scope, though, The implementation costs are not nearly what needs the level of spend to support. So there's just a big mismatch. Second is that we have a huge problem with NVIDIA, and I'll just kind of say the quiet part out loud, which is you can't spend this kind of money to have technology lock in to one hardware vendor. And that makes no sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And what you're seeing now is that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, AMD, Intel, a plethora of startups, GROK, everybody trying to make now different hardware solutions. The problem though that that creates is that we have this massive lock-in right now because the code is littered with all these NVIDIA specific ways of implementing access to GPUs. That's not sustainable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So we're in a bit of an existential thrash. And I think the only way that we're going to get around this is to do a little bit of a reset. And I think that's going to touch a lot of startups that have already taken down way too much money at really insane valuations.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Part of that was just because we needed, I guess the market wanted a place to believe in again after the crypto meltdown and after all of the other SaaS meltdown and all of the other stuff that we've gone through. So Yeah, I think that we are in a bit of a reckoning right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's going to be a complicated couple of quarters at a minimum and probably a complicated year to sort out who's actually real.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Be honest. You brought wine to the gym?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
No, I opened it. It had to breathe. I went and then I had somebody just bring me a little sippy poops just so I could see if it was opening up properly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Yeah, I mean, I don't think it's going to be the next couple of quarters, quite honestly. I do think in the next couple of decades.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And in the next couple of years, what I would hope ambitiously is that there are a few really useful proof points where companies are making revenue solving very specific defined problems, where quite honestly, you're taking workloads of X and making it X over 10, right? And I think that that's possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
But I think this generalized idea that all of this spend is going to have a good ROI, I think is pretty wishful thinking.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Okay. Like, we've spent a trillion dollars. Let's say that there's four purchasing commits for, let's be generous and say only half that number. So now there's $1.5 trillion. So we're $1.5 billion in the J curve. How much total revenue does the entire AI economy that's established today need to generate to pay that back plus some reasonable rate of return? Revenue at a fair multiple.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And I think what I'm getting to is OpenAI is a good example of a company that's winning, but unless they somehow figure out a way to start making $50 billion, there's another $47 billion of revenue that's missing. That's my point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I'm just saying that's like just for the last couple of years of spend.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
That's a different explanation, which is we can just take the rate of return to zero because we have nothing better to do with the money. That's a fair answer as well, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
What do you think of Andreessen, this article that Andreessen just turned on 20,000 GPUs?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
A friend of mine who's a very successful debt fund manager, and I talked about it this week, a friend of the pod. I won't name check him, but he knows who he is. was and I am we're talking about this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And basically, I think if you look at the the most typical deal, so like, for example, the core weave deal, which was floating around, was something along the lines of 40% of the cost of all the GPUs was put up in cash and 60% was lent to core weave by a whole group of bankers. So assuming Andreessen was able to do roughly the same thing,
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
The 20,000 GPU cluster at call it say 20 to 30,000 is between four and 600 million of cost. And if they get 60% of it financed, I hope they did, that still leaves 40% that they would have had to pay for, which you're still talking about $100 million plus. And so then the real question is, can they get enough equity back to make that $100 million investment worthwhile.
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And just to put a fine point on this, if that's 100 million of management fees, the reality is that that's actually $2 billion of value, right? Because these management companies trade at, call it, say 20 odd times. So what's so interesting about this is like, you take 100 million of management fee, that's worth 2 billion of enterprise value, you dump it into these chips and cash,
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So whatever equity you get from these startups will need to make about $2 billion plus a little bit to account for the time value of money. Otherwise, you were probably better off not doing this. That's just the math. I wonder if this is defensive.
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There's a lot of ongoing costs. Yeah, a lot of ongoing costs. Yeah. let's just say they'll spend that another 20 or 30 million over the next 10 years. My point is, it's a drag on your enterprise value that's probably in the billion plus dollar range. And so whatever equity you get needs to make up for that plus some.
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And my only comment is that if you then factor in, Sax, as you said before, the desire to get these NVIDIA chips down in price, but also to have hardware diversity, It's a really speculative bet, and you have to be really right.
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I don't think you need to do this to build a successful venture firm. I mean, if you wanted to maximize the value of the entity, you would keep the $100 million for yourself because then some investor will pay you a huge multiple for that.
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I'm just saying you have to see a path to make back what you're losing in enterprise value.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I think that's an excellent point.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's a majority, but not a super majority.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
By the way, look, Look who's been the most ardent supporter of Joe Biden. It's been the progressive left. Those are the folks that have actually said, hey, and I think probably it's because there's a underlying quid pro quo at play, AOC, Bernie Sanders, all of these folks. Elizabeth Warren.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
If they support Biden and he wins a second term, I suspect that there's going to be a lot of their legislative agenda that basically gets put up for vote. 100%, 100%, yes.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They want reasonable borders, reasonable immigration. If I had to kind of give you my opinion on all of this, I do think that when you look across all of these countries, I do think Freiburg is touching on something. But I think the explanation doesn't have to be this idea that people are embracing socialism.
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I think there's a much simpler explanation as well, which is that we've gone through a very difficult period of joblessness, of inflation, of high costs. And I think typically what happens is you have governmental turnover. in these moments. And so the incumbent gets tossed out and somebody else comes in and whatever they're saying seems like the new thing.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So for example, in Canada right now, the opposite is trending, which is the liberal socialist government just looks totally incompetent. And it looks like the progressives, when this election happens, is just going to completely run over them. And so that's more of a swing to the right. So I think it's less left or right. I think it's incumbent
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people who have not done necessarily a great job in these last four years getting tossed out for folks that are new. And I think that explains a lot of these elections more than socialism or anything else.
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Where Sachs is right. It's like, look, it's in every other country of the world. other than the West, you embrace the national traditions that make a culture its own. But if you came to Sri Lanka, you'd see people in saris, you'd see people dressed in traditional garb, You speak this one language that's somewhat complicated, not spoken anywhere else, although we teach English as well.
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But the point is that there are these cultural traditions, and that's just an example of a country that I know well, but many countries. If you look across Africa, it's the same. If you look across Asia, Central and South America. In the West, it's more of that you come and there's this kind of like odd monoculture. And I think at some point people are pushing back against it.
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I do agree with David that there is that pushback. And I think that that's a reasonable pushback. Well, America's very unique in that.
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No, no, no. So my only point, and I agree with you, J. Kelly, is as a country, you're allowed to have those beliefs. It's not that just because you're in the West, you have to throw that out. And all of a sudden, you have to succumb to this belief that everybody else's culture is better than the one that you've had for the last four or 500 years. I don't think that that's necessarily true.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And I think you miss out on a lot by saying that.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So to your point, I just think that when you look globally, there's a really interesting quote from Peter Thiel that actually is, he made this comment, which is, if you look at the 10 commandments, he's like, the first and the 10th are the most powerful because the first one is about looking up and the 10th is not about looking down and everything else is about looking left and right of you.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And he brings it up in this context of all of these commandments, the middle eight, are all about how you should not be looking to the left and the right, figuring out and making yourself getting tilted about the fact that you have less than the other person. No coveting.
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And I just think that there may be something interesting in that idea, which is that what we've really done is we've created tools that have allowed you to just obsess and fantasize about all these random people's lives who you think are perfect, but they're just manufactured trying to get views anyways. And you just leave being angry and thinking your life sucks.
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And in fact, your life is actually not that bad. And I think if we had more truth and honesty and authenticity, maybe there would be less of this perception and you'd actually try to just enjoy what you have. And I don't think we've figured that out.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They're branding Nostracanus. He has to finish this in two hours because he's taping with Jesse Waters.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They had 95,000 people. We had 100 people.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I'm putting you on the spot here. You've seen all these clips. Yeah. Do you think that there's an active cover-up going on by the White House about his cognitive system?
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No, but sorry. Kidding aside, you think there's a cover-up?
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Visited the White House, yeah.
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I mean, it's pretty incredible actually, but it looks like there's a really good chance that it has. I think the bigger question though is if we are on the verge of a real contraction in the economy. And I think there's been enough people that have warned.
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You have to remember, even though the stock market for seven companies is hitting all-time highs, the stock market for every other company that isn't those seven companies have not. And that really is about just the broad-based demand in the economy. So yeah, I think that inflation is contracting. But it could be contracting for a combination of reasons.
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Well, and the receipts are coming. Well, let's just play this out. So if there is a grand cover up, I think, Jason, you are right that there is too much time between now and the election. There will be a. deep throat Watergate style leak here. You know, there will be a Woodward and Bernstein and gets to the bottom of this. I just think the odds of that are 100% of it not happening are too low.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So I guess then the real question is, is it that the only way to keep the charade going is the quote unquote threat of the Donald Trump boogeyman? Is that what they use basically to hang over these people to?
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
One is because we have had high rates for a long time. But the other part is now people aren't employed. There is no money. And the question is whether you have some sort of contraction economically that is measured by a recession or not. I think that's a really big question. What happens in the next couple quarters? Do we have a little mini recession or not?
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This is amazing. I mean, you're name checking yourself here.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Listen, so many times in the past, your head has been so far up your ass, but this time it's really real. You open it and you see your face, but it's you just name checking yourself.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
The Dunder Mifflin Inflation Index.
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In conversation with Sam Altman
The thing in that world where if you had this like Jarvis-like thing that can reason, what do you think it does to products that you use today where the interface is very valuable?
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So for example, if you look at an Instacart or if you look at an Uber or if you look at a DoorDash, these are not services that are meant to be pipes that are just providing a set of APIs to a smart set of agents that ubiquitously work on behalf of 8 billion people.
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What do you think has to change in how we think about how apps need to work, of how this entire infrastructure of experiences need to work in a world where you're agentically interfacing to the world?
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To your point, the quality is not good. But when the quality is good enough, you'll actually prefer it just because it's just lighter weight. You don't have to take your phone out. You don't have to search for your app and press it. Oh, it automatically logged you out. Oh, hold on, log back in. Oh, TFA. It's a whole pain in the ass.
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Of all the developers that are building apps and experiences on OpenAI, are there a few that stand out for you where you're like, okay, this is directionally going in a super interesting area, even if it's like a toy app. But are there things that you guys point to and say, this is really important?
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But let's walk through the protein modeling example.
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You should write a book, Jacob. Maybe.
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So I think this section I would label as AI and the law. So let me ask maybe a higher level question. What does it mean when people say regulate AI? Totally. Sam, what does that even mean?
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Just to build on that, Sam, the architectural decision, for example, that Lama took is pretty interesting in that it's like, we're going to let Lama grow and be as unfettered as possible. And we have this other kind of thing that we call Lama guard that's meant to be these protective guardrails. Is that how you see the problem being solved correctly?
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Right. I would like to shift to the gossip part of this.
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Gossip? What gossip? Sam, let's go back to November. What the flying f*** happened?
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I think maybe the two big vectors, Sam, that people always talk about is that underlying cost and sort of the latency that's kind of rate-limited a killer app, and then I think the second is sort of the long-term ability for people to build in an open source world versus a closed source world. And I think the crazy thing about this space is that the open source community is rabid.
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What was that guy's name? He was there for like a Scaramucci, right? Emmett's great.
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So one example that I think is incredible is, you know, we had these guys do a pretty crazy demo for Devon, remember, like even like five or six weeks ago that looked incredible. And then some kid just published it under an open MIT license, like OpenDevon. And it's incredibly good and almost as good as that other thing that was closed source.
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Can I ask a different question? You have created, I mean... It's the hottest company. And you are literally at the center of the center of the center. But then it's so unique in the sense that all of this value you eschewed economically. Can you just walk us through why?
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Yeah, give you five points. What was the decision back then? Why was that so important?
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But in this weird way, now that you're running a company, yeah, it creates these weird questions of like, well, what's your real motivation?
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I think people think it's a little bit of an ulterior motive.
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So maybe we can just start with that, which is tell me about the business decision to keep these models closed source. And where do you see things going in the next couple of years?
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What's your preferred model of organizing open AI? Is it... sort of like the move fast, break things, highly distributed small teams, or is it more of this organized effort where you need to plan because you want to prevent some of these edge cases?
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Come back to the game. Yeah, come back to the game.
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Sam has a great style of playing, which I would call Ram and Jam. Totally. You got to just get out of the way.
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We'll see you next time.
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But you do two boards. And congrats.
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I think that these guys are going to be one of the four major companies that matter in this whole space. I think that that's clear. I think what's still unclear is where is the economics going to be?
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He said something very discreet, but I thought was important, which is, I think he basically, my interpretation is these models will roughly all be the same, but there's going to be a lot of scaffolding around these models that actually allow you to build these apps. So in many ways, that is like the open source movement. So even if the model itself is never open source.
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It doesn't much matter because you have to pay for the infrastructure, right? There's a lot of open source software that runs on Amazon. You still pay AWS something. So I think the right way to think about this now is the models will basically be all really good. And then it's all this other stuff that you'll have to pay for. The interface. Whoever builds all this other stuff
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is going to be in a position to build a really good business.
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My other takeaway, I think, is that the, I think what he also seemed to indicate is there's like so many, like we're all so enraptured by LLMs, but there's so many things other than LLMs that are being baked and rolled by him and by other groups.
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And I think we have to pay some amount of attention to all those because that's probably where, and I think Freeberg, you tried to go there in your question, that's where reasoning will really come from is this mixture of experts approach. And so you're gonna have to think multi-dimensionally to reason, right? We do that, right? Do I cross the street or not in this point in time?
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You reason based on all these multi-inputs. And so there's all these little systems that go into making that decision in your brain. And if you use that as a simple example, there's all this stuff that has to go into making some experience being able to reason intelligently.
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This is going to be catnip for all these protest organizers.
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Honestly, I will just say, I think you are doing a marvelous job. That... I was shocked at the design. Shocked meaning it is so unique and high quality. I think it's amazing. It would make me drink tequila.
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I mean, why not? I mean, it's great when we get barricaded in by all these protesters, we can drink the tequila. Did you guys see Peter Thiel? Peter Thiel got barricaded by these ding-dongs at Cambridge? My God.
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This was not on my bingo card. This pro-protester support by Sachs was not on the bingo card, I got to say.
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By the way, some of these camps are some of the funniest things you've ever seen. It's like there are like one tent that's dedicated to like a reading room and you go in there and there's like these like... Mindfulness center? Oh my God, it's unbelievably hilarious.
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Did you guys see the clip? I think it was on the University of Washington campus where one kid challenged this Antifa guy to a push-up contest. Oh, fantastic. I mean, it is some of the funniest stuff. Some content is coming out that's just hilarious.
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It made you sad? It actually elicited an emotion? Meaning like commercials? It's very rare that commercials can actually do that. Most people just zone out. Yeah, they took all this beautiful stuff and heard it.
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Yeah. I think this is... You guys see that in the Berkshire annual meeting last weekend, Tim Cook was in the audience and Buffett... was very laudatory. This is an incredible company. But he's so clever with words. He's like, you know, this is an incredible business that we will hold forever, most likely. And then it turns out that he sold $20 billion worth of Apple shares in the quarter.
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A caveat. Which, by the way, if you guys remember, we put that little chart up, which shows when he doesn't mention it in the annual letter, it's basically like it's foreshadowing the fact that he is just pounding the sell. And he sold $20 billion.
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I mean, it's an incredible business that has so much money with nothing to do. They're probably just going to buy back the stock. Just a total waste.
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I think the problem is, J. Cal, like, you kind of become afraid of your own shadow. Meaning, the folks that are really good at M&A, like, you look at Benioff. The thing with Benioff's M&A strategy is that he's been doing it for 20 years.
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And so he's cut his teeth on small acquisitions and the market learns to give him trust so that when he proposes like the $27 billion Slack acquisition, he's allowed to do that. Another guy, you know, Nikesh Arora at Pan W. These last five years, people were very skeptical that he could actually roll up security because it was a super fragmented market. He's gotten permission.
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Then there are companies like Danaher that buy hundreds of companies. So all of these folks are examples of you start small and you earn the right to do more. Apple hasn't bought anything more than $50 or $100 million. And so the idea that all of a sudden they come out of the blue and buy a $10, $20 billion company, I think is just totally doesn't stand logic.
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It's just not possible for them because they'll be so afraid of their own shadow. That's the big problem. It's themselves.
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Plus, why are they body-shaming the fat iPads?
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That was a great scene.
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They killed it. I think a lot of people would be very open-minded to an Apple car. They just would. It's a connected internet device, increasingly so. And they managed to flub it. They had a chance to buy Tesla. They managed to flub it. There are just too many examples here where these guys have so much money and not enough ideas. That's a shame.
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What about a gaming console? They could have done that, you know? There's just all these things that they could have done. It's not a lack of imagination because these aren't exactly incredibly world-beating ideas. They're sitting right in front of your face. It's just the will to do it.
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I think the reason why the car could have been completely re-imagined by Apple is that they have a level of credibility and trust that I think probably no other company has, and absolutely no other tech company has. And we talked about this, but I think this was the third Steve Jobs story that I left out. But in 2000, and I don't know, was it one? I launched a 99 cent download store.
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I think I've told you this story in Winamp. And Steve Jobs just ran total circles around us. But the reason he was able to is he had all the credibility to go to the labels and get deals done for licensing music that nobody could get done before. I think that's an example of what Apple's able to do, which is to use their political capital to change the rules.
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So if the thing that we would all want is safer roads and autonomous vehicles, there are regions in every town and city that could be completely converted to level five autonomous zones. If I had to pick one company that had the credibility to go and change those rules, it's them. because they could demonstrate that there was a methodical safe approach to doing something.
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And so the point is that even in these categories that could be totally reimagined, it's not for a lack of imagination. Again, it just goes back to a complete lack of will. And I understand because if they had, if you had $200 billion of capital on your balance sheet, I think it's probably pretty easy to get fat and lazy.
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On the blog post, they have this incredible video that they show of the coronavirus that creates a common cold, I think the 7-PNM protein. And not only did they literally predict it accurately, they also predicted how it interacts with an antibody, with a sugar. It's nuts.
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So you could see a world where like, I don't know, you just get a vaccine for the cold and it's kind of like you never have colds again.
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And your preference of nut milk.
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Can we have some soy-like to them, please?
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Can I just replay something and just make sure I heard it right? I think what you were saying on the open source, closed source thing is, if I heard it right, all these models, independent of the business decision you make, are going to become asymptotically accurate towards some amount of accuracy. Not all, but let's just say there's four or five that are
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well-capitalized enough, you guys, Meta, Google, Microsoft, whomever, right? So let's just say four or five, maybe one startup. And on the open web. And then quickly... the accuracy or the value of these models will probably shift to these proprietary sources of training data that you could get that others can't or others can get that you can't.
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Is that how you see this thing evolving, where the open web gets everybody to a certain threshold and then it's just an arms race for data beyond that?
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Let's go back to that first section of just the cost and the speed. all of you guys are sort of a little bit rate limited on literally Nvidia's throughput, right? And I think that you and most everybody else have sort of effectively announced how much capacity you can get just because it's as much as they can spin out.
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What needs to happen at the substrate so that you can actually compute cheaper, compute faster, get access to more energy? How are you helping to frame out the industry solving those problems?
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In conversation with Sam Altman
What about the device side? And sort of, you mentioned sort of the models that can fit on a phone. So obviously, whether that's an LLM or some SLM or something, I'm sure you're thinking about that. But then does the device itself change? I mean, does it need to be as expensive as an iPhone?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sam Altman
Is it that that it has to be more complicated or actually just much, much cheaper and simpler?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
So I think Freeberger is right that the reason why the Japanese central bank tried to raise rates, I mean, just by a tiny amount, was because they are dealing with inflation. If you look at that inflation chart and you go back to when their inflation was zero, roughly in 2020, the exchange rate ratio between the US dollar and the yen was about 100 to 1, meaning one US dollar could buy 100 yen.
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Now it's at roughly 150 yen to the dollar. So their currency has massively depreciated over the last several years. And a big part of the reason why is because, again, they're central bank is offering roughly zero, and you can earn 5% in UST bills.
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So people are basically moving their money to countries that pay a lot more on their bonds, and they're even borrowing yen, like we talked about, selling the yen to then buy Australian dollars or US dollars to invest the money there. So there's huge downward pressure on the value of the yen. And the way this creates inflation is that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Japan is obviously an island that has very few natural resources, and it has to import all of its oil. So it has an advanced economy, but it needs to import a lot of resources. And so as its currency depreciates, the price of all those commodities goes up. And this is why you're seeing inflation in Japan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Now, when the central bank tried to solve this, it created huge jitters in the financial market because it was starting to unwind the whole yen carry trade, which is something like $20 trillion. And so the Bank of Japan backed off. And you heard the Japanese central banker said, we can't raise rates while it would create instability in the global markets. We have to wait until it's stable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But the problem is that raising the rates and unwinding the yen carry trade creates the instability. So what they're saying is we're never going to be able to raise rates. And the result of this is going to be more inflation in Japan. Their currency is going to continue to depreciate. They've been unable to defend it.
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And so what I would expect is that the US dollar is going to keep buying more yen. It's going to go from, I don't know, 147, 150 to some bigger number.
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And who's going to pay the price here is the Japanese consumer, because everything's going to cost a lot more.
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It'll be good for tourism because, yeah, you'll be able to travel to Japan much more cheaply. But if you're actually Japanese and you live in that country, you're going to see your purchasing power continue to erode. So I would expect big domestic problems in Japan, and eventually they may conclude that this system does not benefit them. Now, who does it benefit?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You could argue that it benefits the United States because it has subsidized the purchase of our debt, right? Because again, so you have this yen carry trade of 20 trillion, and a lot of that has gone into U.S. bonds or U.S. T-bills, right? And so it basically is a huge subsidy to the U.S. Treasury's need to continuously issue more and more debt. We're issuing, what, a trillion dollars of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
net new debt every 100 days. So having the Japanese consumer subsidize all of this by taking it on the chin, you know, in terms of inflation in order to provide this yen carry trade, you could argue has been very beneficial to the U.S. Treasury.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I don't know. I mean, I tend to agree with Freeberg here that when you have massive amounts of debt, it definitely limits your flexibility.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
One of the reasons why Japan can't raise rates is because the their debt will become even more expensive, right? I mean, Freeburg isn't that part of the problem?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay, so to analogize this to the US, our debt service costs are, what are they at now? Like well over a trillion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Just one other point is, I think it shows... the fragility of the global financial system. I mean, the market snapped back. As soon as the Bank of Japan backed off, basically capitulated, said, okay, fine, we can't defend our currency. We're just gonna let it keep depreciating. We're gonna let inflation keep raging.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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As soon as they declared that, then the market snapped back, but it just showed in that 24 hours, Putting aside all the panic porn that was on social media, because I think that was overdone, it still showed how fragile the global economy is. The yen carry trade has injected roughly $20 trillion of liquidity into the global economy, and that is propping up all sorts of things, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
And that is subsidizing U.S. government debt. And you just wonder if... the yen carry trade were to end, because let's say, for example, the Japanese people don't want to experience hyperinflation, then what would that do to the global economy? It just showed how rickety the whole system is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
In fact, now's an even better time to put that trade on because the Bank of Japan's basically just capitulated and said that they can't raise interest rates while things are so unstable. So we know they're just going to keep rates where they are. So if I was one of these traders, I'd just put the trade back on now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Look at that form. I like that guy.
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I don't think they have that plan specifically because I just think that you would need a supermajority in Congress to do something like that. And I just think that this election is going to be too close regardless of who wins to provide that kind of mandate. I mean, sadly, I think we do need to get government spending under control. But I think it's a long-term political problem.
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Hard to beat them at virtue signaling.
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And I just think our political system doesn't have the will. to fix it. I do believe Republicans would be better than Democrats on that, but I think that's the truth of it. To go back to your first question on the state of the economy, I had lunch with a very prominent investor yesterday who's very plugged in with the hedge fund community. And he said that the sentiment shift
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'd say, again, within hedge funds, professional investors, public market investors, it had been very sudden that people were now very worried about the risk of a recession. And I do think that the Airbnb revenue that Chamath cited is a big factor. Airbnb stock went down 15% in one day on soft demand. And what's driving all of this is consumer weakness, or at least fear of consumer weakness.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You mentioned the rise in unemployment. It went from 4.1% to 4.3% month over month. So 4.3% is still a pretty low number by historical terms, but to jump so much in one month, that's a pretty big increase. And then, of course, it's up from 3.5% a year ago. So we're seeing pretty big increases in unemployment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. So these are big changes. There's real evidence of consumer weakness. And I think professional investors are getting quite worried about the risk of a recession. And I guess this one last point on this is that If you were to remove the impact of government spending, it's pretty clear the private sector is in a recession.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, like we've been talking about, government's been going hog wild with spending. The government is running 6% of GDP deficits. The latest Q2 growth number was something like 2%. So if you force government to live within its means and to cut its way back to balance, we would definitely be in a recession. We'd have a negative growth rate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
So I do think that the economy is looking pretty shaky all of a sudden. Whether we actually tip over into recession in the next few months, I'm not sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
The reason why the markets could rally in the midst of a recession is because interest rates get cut. We've already seen that the expectations of rate cuts have now grown substantially. The markets are starting to price in 100 to 150 basis points of rate cuts this year, where before it was more like 25 to 50 basis points. So obviously, lower interest rates make stocks go up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
So I think that's the main driver of the rally you're seeing right now, J. Cal, not the prospects for increased efficiency, because I think those prospects were already there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
I've been predicting recession for like three years now because I just think when you jack up interest rates so suddenly, so violently, you get recession. So I guess if you pin me down, I'd say recession. And I'll tell you one of the reasons why- Interestingly, I've just checked the notes, Sachs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
I know, I know. Look, it's the same recession that I've been predicting. It's very simple. When you jack up interest rates from near zero to five and a half percent, that makes everything much more expensive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, people have been saying it. I think you just did. If you look at job creation over the last four years, there's been no net new job creation for native-born Americans. All the job creation has been foreign-born or... Because native-born Americans have too high of a wage expectation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I agree. I don't think it's too high.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think it'd be a lot better to let their wages rise. But in any event, let's not get political on it. Just to the point, about recession, Jason. I mean, yeah, look, I've been predicting the same recession, but I think one of the reasons why it might finally come now, first of all, you've got a lot of investors are suddenly worried about it. There's been a big sentiment shift.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
I think the other thing is I don't think we know all the bad news yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, none of us were tracking the yen carry trade. I mean, it was something we may have heard of, but it's not like we were actively thinking about it until this past week. And the question is, how many more things are out there like that? And I also think that the pattern with this administration has been to hide the ball. They hid by insinuity for years. Not to get political, though.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Not to get political. Biden, Biden, Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
It's not political.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm making an economic point here, actually. And you guys can decide if I'm just being partisan or whether I have a good point here, which is, look, I think the MO of this administration has been to hide the ball. And any good news they would have reported. Do you think that they're reporting all the bad news? I don't.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think there's more bad news that's going to come out after the election because there's too many incentives for people to hide it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
When you said that the yen carry trade didn't have a big impact, that's because the Bank of Japan backed off. So if they kept going with it, we don't know what the impact would have been.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
When we had this global sell-off on Sunday, Monday, a lot of people were sharing this chart online and pointing out that Buffett was sitting on this gigantic cash pile, by far the biggest cash pile that he's ever sat on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
We then had a market recovery, so people aren't really talking about this, but it does stand to reason that Buffett is building up a war chest here, and he's somewhat defensively positioned. You can see that, you know, was it like 20, 21, 22 years? the cash pile went down because he started making a bunch of investments. Now the cash pile is really high.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
So it seems logical to infer that he thinks that the risk reward right now is not great on public equities. And again, he's just a little bit more risk off.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
I hope I don't get you guys- The CDC says we can treat COVID like the flu now. I mean- You see that? They finally admitted after two years of shutting down schools, the economy, everything. Like, oh, it's just the flu. We can treat it like the flu.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Yeah, but a safer way to do this is just to invest in a US T-bill that's paying 5%. You don't have to take the risk of the market going down. You borrow yen at 0%, invest in T-bills at 5%, and you pocket the difference.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I think this is a good decision. I mean, Google clearly is a monopoly. In fact, it's at least two or three monopolies. They have monopoly in search, they have monopoly in advertising, and they at least have a dominant position in video with YouTube. And I think that it would be great if the government broke up this company. I mean, it should be it should be at least three or four companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, there should be search should be its own company. Advertising should be its own company. YouTube should be spun out. And then I don't know if G Suite should be a separate company or should get lumped in with search. I don't know. But I think this should be at least three or four companies. And I think Republicans will be on board with that because, frankly, Google is a threat to democracy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
If you go to Google and search for search results of anything related to the election, it is clearly so biased. Explain that. Yeah. Give an example. If you want to get the latest info on Kamala Harris, just search for Donald Trump. I mean, compare the search results. And I've done this and I've posted the results online.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you search for Trump, you'll get a bunch of negative articles on Trump and you'll get positive articles about Harris. And then conversely, if you search for Kamala Harris, you'll get positive articles about her. And it's like Trump doesn't exist. It's clearly they have put their thumb on the scale here in favor of the candidate they prefer, as 90 something percent of their donations indicate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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What's your take?
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well okay that's their explanation yeah okay fine but the problem is yeah yeah they're waiting the publications they want to wait. Why is Daily Beast like some authority on the election? They're the most partisan, ridiculous, untrustworthy publication when it comes to the election. So why should they be top four? I mean, why isn't Fox News in there? Why isn't New York Post in there?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Why isn't Substack in there? There's a lot of great publications on Substack. So they are very selectively choosing the publications who, you're right, are in the tank for the Democrats. So they are reflecting the bias of the mainstream media, but they are being very selective about what media they show. And even so- Here's Kamala Harris.
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I want you to put on the screen this. Yeah, go ahead. You can do it. I tweeted some receipts. Please click on the screenshot so I can show you the side by side. and you'll see what I'm talking about. Okay, I search for Donald Trump. What do I get? News about Harris. This is on my phone, so this is mobile. The articles are all basically about Harris criticizing Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay, then the second carousel is about the Project 2025 director stepping down, which is pretty tangential to Trump, but is a major Democratic line of attack on Trump. So this whole thing seems rigged, to support the DNC point of view on Trump. Same thing. You search Donald Trump latest news. Same thing. There's some weird story about Donald Trump's nephew.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I didn't even know about this person, but somehow they're elevating it to be a major story. And again, the first carousel is all about Harris. Now, keep going, please.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Okay. Now we look at Kamala Harris. Top stories. Just Harris. No news about Trump. Got it. Next one. Same thing, okay? So the point is that when you search for Trump, you get news about Harris and criticism of Trump. When you search for Harris, you get positive news about Harris. There's no way you can tell me that this is fair or this is a result of an algorithm that hasn't been tampered with.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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This is very clearly programmed. I mean, you get different carousels depending on which candidate you search for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Yeah. Yeah. Of course, I understand that the mainstream media is hopelessly biased. Please remember you said that when we discuss it. No, no, no. Hopelessly outnumbered. Some other time instead of saying it's conspiracy theory.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
The mainstream media is biased. We all know that. You can defend it however you want to defend it. Nobody's defending it. Okay, fine, so we agree on that. I don't know why you're making these- I agree with you five times on it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay, my point about Google is they're reinforcing the bias because they uprank the mainstream media sources and they downrank the sources that provide a dissident opinion or an alternative opinion. Again, why is Vanity Fair upranked above the New York Post? Is that because of their journalistic quality? I don't think so.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
One way to think about this- Hold on, why is it that the Kamala Harris search result does not say anything about Trump, but the Trump search result has a carousel on Kamala Harris. That looks programmed to me. Do you want an answer? Yeah, that looks programmed to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Before we leave this topic, can I just show this chart? Okay, look, this is a chart showing- We've seen the chart, we know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Okay, well, people in the audience may not know, okay? Okay. Employee donations to party are, again, it's well over 90% of Democrats. This basically represents the- constituency of Silicon Valley, okay, inside these companies. We also know that Google search results use more and more manual interventions. Freeberg, you agree with that, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay. So all the people doing this stuff are Democrats. They're liberal. And you're telling me that this does not have an influence, it does not create bias. Come on. You can see the bias in a common sense search for Trump versus Harris.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think it would be like 70% or 80% if it weren't for the bias of the mainstream media being boosted by big tech.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Maybe not quite that percentage. But if you look at issues, polling on issues, The Republican position on most issues is like a 60 to 70% winner. And yet the elections are a nail biter. And I think a lot of it has to do with the influence of the mainstream media and big tech.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm not inflamed. I have a point of view that I think is informed by facts and evidence. The fact of the matter is the vast, vast majority, well over 90% of the employees at Google are liberal Democrats. And the Google search does rely on manual actions and the people performing those actions are, again, overwhelmingly from one side of the political aisle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Furthermore, we can see in the search results that they do appear to be hopelessly biased in favor of one candidate at the expense of another. I mean, you're asking me to deny the evidence in my own eyes and ears. I can see what's happening. I think most people can see what's happening. I do not think that Google should be putting its thumb on the scale on one side of the election here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And Jason, you may have a point that it's reflecting the bias of the mainstream media. I don't think that makes it okay. I think that Google should have to work a little harder to be neutral. And they could do that easily by balancing their news sources.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I was very happy with it. I was very happy with the pick. I mean, so first of all, I think I said last week or two weeks ago that I thought the pick would be Shapiro, Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania. It was such an obvious choice for Harris because this whole election could easily come down to 10,000 votes in Pennsylvania. It is the tipping point state.
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And Harris probably has to win that state in order to win the election. And you have a very popular governor of that state. He's got something like 63% popularity in that state. He's also perceived as a moderate. So he would have helped Harris position the ticket more towards the center, which apparently is her goal since she's repudiated all of her far left positions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So it just seemed to be so perfect. And then what happened is there was a smear campaign by the progressive left against Shapiro. He was the only one of the VP shortlist candidates that seemed to get all this oppo dumped on him before the pick. And that campaign against Shapiro seems to have spooked Harris, who seems to be fairly risk averse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And she went with this guy, Tim Waltz from Minnesota, who is a darling of the radical left. And I think that he's already presented many opportunities for attack by the right. There's three big issues that I think Waltz is going to have to address because Republicans are already landing blows on him. Number one, stolen valor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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He has clearly, and on several occasions, overstayed the extent of his military record. Look, obviously, I've never served, but I know that among people who have, this is a very big deal. Big issue. Big issue. Campaigns have imploded over this. So that's number one. He's got the stolen ballot problem. Number two, on trans, he seems to have bought into every aspect of the trans agenda.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
And he's made Minnesota a sanctuary state for minors who want to come there for puberty blockers and sex reassignment surgeries. even without parental consent. The law that Gavin Newsom just passed or signed that drove Elon out of the state, Tim Walz got there first in Minnesota. So he is not a centrist. He is very far on the cultural left.
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And then I'd say like a third issue that I don't even know if people have really gotten to yet, but I think it will eventually come up, is that Waltz was insanely authoritarian on COVID.
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I mean, this is a guy who told us that Minnesotans live by a motto of mind your own damn business, but he set up a COVID stitch hotline so people could rat out their neighbors for leaving the house or having dinner parties or walking their dog without a mask. And it was it was real. I mean, violators could be punished by 90 days in jail.
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So, again, this guy has been to the left of Gavin Newsom on cultural issues. And I think that's going to be a big problem for the Harris campaign. And I don't really understand why she went with him when there was such an obvious alternative who was available, who could have given her a swing state, who could have positioned her as a moderate. What are your thoughts?
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Let me say something about this issue, frankly, in defense of Kamala Harris. I don't think she's anti-Semitic, and I don't think that accusation should ever be made without real evidence, okay? That being said, Van Jones, who is in a position to know, because he's an important political pundit in the Democrat Party, said that one of the reasons why Shapiro was passed over is because of this issue.
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And he said that anti-Semitism had become marbled into the Democrat Party. I don't know exactly what he meant by that.
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Yeah.
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Yeah. So I don't think Harris is. I think she's just risk averse and didn't want to alienate certain factions within the Democrat party. I agree with that statement. Right. But in the process of being risk averse, she chose this guy, Waltz, who I think has got much bigger vulnerabilities than Shapiro does. And I think the question now is whether Waltz is even going to make it to the convention.
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I think he might have to drop out.
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Yeah, let me make a couple of points there. So number one is Trump had a lot more time to vet and get comfortable with his VP candidate because he's been the presumptive nominee for many months, whereas Harris inherited the nomineeship without a primary battle, right? Biden just abdicated less than three weeks ago.
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So that's the reason why she didn't really have time to go through a courtship process for her VP. Now, as to the vetting process, I agree with you. I think it's somewhat inexplicable because these stolen valor claims have been out there for a long time.
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When Waltz ran for governor, there were former soldiers who came forward and said, yeah, he was supposed to be the commander of our National Guard unit. He was supposed to go with us. And he quit right before we got deployed to Iraq. And so these complaints have been out there for a while.
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Moreover, he has many public statements saying that he was deployed to Operation Enduring Freedom, which I think was Afghanistan, and he simply wasn't. I mean, at least that's what I understand to be the case. So...
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Is that... He never saw combat. And he said that he carried a weapon in combat, in war. So this isn't like... a use of soppy language once or twice. This has been around, circling him for many years now, and there's been many examples of him saying these things on video. Let me ask a question here. So my point is just this. Can I just say one thing? I think the vetting was very poor.
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I think the vetting was very poor.
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Look, in my view, this was an easy choice. Even if she didn't like Shapiro, she could have gone with Bashir or she could have gone with Mark Kelly. Remember, the astronaut Mark Kelly was one of the top two contenders. At least that was what was reported. In other words, she could have gone with a moderate from a swing state.
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Okay, so why not Mark Kelly?
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Okay. He's on the ball. I'm not saying it has to be Shapiro, but the remit here was really clear to strategically. You want to choose a moderate from a swing state. That's it. Because this whole election can come down to one state and you want to basically portray yourself as a moderate. So this is a very easy assignment. Find me a moderate from a swing state. And what do they do?
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They choose a radical from a safe state, safe for Democrats. They got Minnesota locked up. Why do they need to take on this baggage? There's no reason for it. And Chamath, I do think they rushed the vetting, but I think it wasn't because of passion or something like that. I think they're running out of time because remember, Biden was supposed to be the nominee.
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Harris was supposed to be on the ticket as VP. They weren't supposed to do this process. And then all of a sudden it happened three weeks ago because Biden abdicated.
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Totally. And let me tell you, if Walz doesn't drop from the ticket, I predict there'll be gold star families protesting all of their events. And that's going to be a real headache from now till the election.
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It's pretty clear that he, at a minimum, exaggerated his service and he exaggerated his rank.
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Listen, whenever I meet a vet, I always thank them for their service. But those vets will tell you, you can never exaggerate what you did.
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You can't say you were in war when you were not in war.
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Anybody home, McFly? Anybody home? Any home?
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I mean, it is crazy. I want to thank Phil for the shout out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
We're all influencers now. Did you guys see my deck this month? We're all influencers now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Now, that's a good bit, Jacob. That's good.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The first is, I think the DOJ and the FTC are totally way out of their ski tips on this. This is a totally nascent industry. We don't have any good examples of end-user use cases, either in the enterprise or amongst consumers. We only have 18 months of spend history. It is true that we've spent probably $750 billion to a trillion dollars collectively now on things with the AI label.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But it is also true that that's probably generated less than $10 billion in revenue. So I don't see what they're exactly investigating. in an extremely immature market where we haven't yet seen one cycle of boom and bust so that we know what we're actually dealing with. So it's way too premature and it's just people afraid and tilting at windmills. The second part, the part that's mixed though is
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
We are seeing a clever form of deal-making that these huge hyperscalers are doing to work around the traditional constraints that you've had on businesses. Jason, you and I worked at AOL in a moment where AOL paid a very dear cost for essentially round-tripping revenue. Yep.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Microsoft had to go through a huge DOJ inquiry and a settlement decree, and they were in the penalty box for most of Steve Ballmer's tenure as a CEO. A lost decade, yeah. And the handcuffs came off when Satya took over that business.
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So I think what I'm trying to say is folks have become extremely sophisticated at replacing roundtripping with these complicated TAC 2.0, whatever you want to call it, credit-oriented deals. They'll finance you to buy their own chips. All of this stuff... has to be scrutinized a little bit more. So that part I support. But all of a sudden, launching an antitrust investigation makes no sense.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So I really think the inquiry should be coming from the SEC about, is this real revenue?
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And capitalism. And you're exactly right. And innovation. I wouldn't even say it's Silicon Valley. It's like if you're going to go and build things, that are at the bleeding edge. You know, the government used to be the most critical supporter of that, right?
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
If you think about space or defense, these are areas, the internet itself, the government was the partner of private industry to make sure that there was no regulation and that like really, really forward-looking innovation could happen. That should be their role.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
No, he's posting a meme. Okay, thank you. He put a picture on the internet. Okay. I mean, again, this is like the problem that we have, which is that he disclosed his position in a different way. Now, we don't know whether that disclosure is accurate because I think it was just a screenshot of like some statement inside of a Reddit thread, right? And then that got posted many times elsewhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Probably, yeah, I would guess. I don't know all the rankings, but... And I guess on YouTube, we got labeled with some COVID thingamajig. I mean, what is going on at YouTube? What a joke.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Is this accurate? I don't know. Because he has no obligation as an individual to do any of this stuff. Because he's not running a hedge fund and he's not running other people's money. Now, if he was acting in concert with other people, you could say, hey, hold on a second.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
If you're repping not just your money, but other people's money and you did this, then there's probably a disclosure obligation there. But at the end of the day, this is a guy that acted and basically created hype. And right now, the SEC does not have a framework to deal with that because the rules that existed didn't understand social media and whatnot. And he's also not a regulated entity.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
He's just an individual. Now, if it turns out that he was selling while he was posting this stuff and trying to manipulate the market in some way, obviously they could find issue with that. But just for him being a credible influencer, and creating momentum for an underlying position, that in and of itself is not illegal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
This is kind of... The Wall Street Journal as well. If you look at the Wall Street Journal today, there's an entire article basically with the headline, is what Keith Gill is doing illegal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think you can view this in a different lens, which is here is an individual that is totally outside of the establishment that however he's done it, has gotten a hold of hundreds of millions of dollars, maybe even now billions if the stock keeps going. And I think that that for the establishment that controls those pipes, very disconcerting.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Yeah.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And they'll do something that's even more dangerous, which is they can get synthetically short. So they'll, they'll add leverage to this, using all kinds of esoteric derivatives that other banks on Wall Street will happily sell them. And then when those are disclosed, then the Redditors can just pump it even more, which causes massive margin calls.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So I think, I think the thing that Friedberg, you're saying, though, this is this existential thing that comes back, it's happened in NFTs, it's happened in the dot com bubble, it happened in SPACs, it's happened in crypto. Are we supposed to protect people? And then the question is, who is the we?
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And are you supposed to say, if you're an adult and you can read, then read the disclosures and you're on your own. That's what the SEC says. And that's what the rule of law has been. And so this is going to be an interesting test because instead of an organization, it's going to be a person, in this case, Keith Gill, who will be the face of what happens to the stock.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Because if a bunch of people all of a sudden plow into this thing, and then it goes to five, It'll be really interesting to see the reaction. Hey, you should have saved us. How could this happen? You know, he dumped this on all of us. And the answer is no, he did not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Enough with the nanny state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And you showed how the government protected everybody, which was you showed the revenue and the profits and the margins, which is publicly available.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
You didn't even use a sophisticated model. You used probably the calculator app on your freaking Mac to figure out that it was 192 times. No, he did the back of the envelope. No, no, no. I'm sure he used the calculator app. Actually, I have the Casio.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The whole point is you can figure out that there's no logical justification for this company using one Google search and the calculator app on your Mac.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The other thing that you're saying, which is really important, is you have to remember what the capital markets and the stock market is there for. It's not meant for this. This is a small little cul-de-sac, but the overwhelming majority of the capital markets and the equity markets is to allocate excess capital to good ideas. That's what is usually happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
There's a bunch of us that will put a bunch of our money into things because we think it's the right thing to do. And that is the overwhelming majority of what is happening in the stock market every day. And David's right. Every now and then, one of these things randomly comes up. And every period of time, there'll be a few parts of the market that go crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But the reality is that's not what the overwhelming majority of the actions and that's not why the security is also there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So now he's got a follower count that he can put on his hands. Is it still all of his money that he's betting?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's just... What happens when he loses? Is there a day where he's lost a lot of money? Oh, dude, you got to watch it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I want to see what happens when he loses like a big number.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I'll be honest with you, this may get me back on Instagram. This is so juicy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Oh, day 55. Oh, here we go. Here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I've had them trot out the cooler. When I was playing craps once, I was so mad. And I was on such a heater. And what happens is You guys have seen me play craps where it's like, it's all rhythm, right? So it's like, I get the dice in a certain way. You know, I do that. And then they bring in this guy and he was like a klutz. It's like Daniel Day-Lewis in my left foot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
All of a sudden, everything is spilling everywhere. Four dice fall off the table. I got so out of rhythm. You broke the rhythm. It was so horrible. I was so mad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Really good idea, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Go to your own job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Put on your big boy pants. Don't drink and drive. Don't use drugs. That means like all of a sudden, like we need to govern how you're not a functioning adult.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Or do whatever you want and please just take responsibility for yourself because it's not our job. I'm responsible for my children, not you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Should short sellers be more disclosed? I really think that's a very good idea. I do think that there are some short sellers who are doing it because they have to hedge a position that they have. But then there are other short sellers who are doing it speculatively. And there are synthetic instruments that banks will sell you to go massively super short.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
That's how you can get a situation where 140% of the stock is sold short, which shouldn't make sense. If there's only 100 shares of a company, how could it be that 140 shares are sold short? It's because you can have these synthetic derivatives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So there are ways where if you have... a formal trading relationship with Wall Street. And you need to be of a certain size and they go through a diligence process. They give you, so I have one called an ISDA. And it's essentially an account and a framework that you negotiate with a bank
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
that allows you to call them and say, hey, give me A, B, or C. And other times they'll call you and say, hey, I have this really interesting way to play X, Y, Z. And one of the things that you can do with them is you can say, listen, I want to go super, super long or super, super short, a theme or a company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And they'll create a contract between you and them that'll allow you to get that kind of exposure. Now, you're not supposed to do that on a regular basis, nor are you supposed to lever this up. This is actually what blew up a different hedge fund called Archegos. I remember we covered it. And in that, I guess what happened was the gentleman was calling many banks.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
and doing all these things, and one bank didn't know what the other bank was doing, so all of a sudden there was this massive synthetic leverage that he was getting on, I think it was News Corp stock, and then they found out, then it was unwound, then he owed a bunch of money, he couldn't pay it, the whole thing shut down, the stock market went crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So there does need to be that disclosure, but there isn't a rule that says that. And every time somebody tries to introduce it, the broker-dealers basically lobby and kill it.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, it is tied in the sense that ultimately it all needs to feed back to an actual physical share. And so this is where all this price behavior gets further amplified. I think the point is that these forms of expressing risk can really amplify what would otherwise happen. So in Freeberg's example, most people would sit there, get the financials.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Some would maybe say, historically, this thing looks like a short, or I wouldn't even buy it at all, right? Yeah. But other people may say, well, if I listen to the chairman and I think about the future, maybe I go long. That's a fine thing. You can enter the stock market and do that. But all this other stuff amplifies all these things to a degree that we're not really used to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Okay, why?
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Competition? I do think that it's hard right now for companies to get access to capital. I think more diverse and more flexible ways where smart investors can allocate their money into the ideas that they want are better. I think that the duopoly hasn't created enough competition. So the NASDAQ and New York Stock Exchange haven't innovated. And in fact, they've probably been a little regressive
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
in terms of filing requirements, listing requirements, in terms of board composition, they've fallen for a bunch of things that don't actually point to the economic rationale or value in a company. And so I think if you have a third player, there's a chance that more competition will create more rational behavior, which will flow into the companies themselves. So I'm a huge fan of this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think that the stock exchanges right now are too brittle. And that large reason is because there's only two of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
No. The problem is that we don't know what the right form factor for a super scaled consumer AI app looks like. So we've all, again, I mean, I'm not trying to be a wet blanket. It's just that when you look at what's built so far, I think most of the things we've seen are the Friendster and MySpaces of this class of app. We haven't seen the Facebooks and the Instagrams yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And the reason is because we haven't experimented and pushed the boundaries of the form factor. So for example, in the first phases of social networking, The idea that you would collect information about all your friends and then create something called a newsfeed was totally shocking. And I remember when we first released it, people got really upset. And then it just became this de facto.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Why were they upset about it? Tell me. Well, it's this idea that you collected this information and then you presented it about all of your friends was disconcerting initially as a feature. Now, if you don't have a newsfeed of some kind in your app, for many apps, it's DOA, right? So the same problem exists today. All we've done today is we've
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
replicated an existing use case with a slightly better feature here or there. Nobody has gone out and said on a blank canvas, let me completely reimagine how consumers want value with these things to enable it. And until that happens, we're just wasting time. So the idea that Apple with this thousand dollar device is all of a sudden going to figure out that this is why you're going to upgrade,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think is pretty speculative. And I think they're going to be disappointed. I think people have realized that four generations ago was more than enough. And on top of this, the stuff that you value inside the iPhone is not what you're going to need for AI. So actually, spending a trillion billion dollars on the fourth camera lens is not going to be what solves this problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And so you're more likely to have a very simple earbud that is very inconspicuous and discreetly in your inner ear well speaking information to you than you are with a companion $500 phone than I think you will be with a $1,500 iPhone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
My point is you don't need a $1,500 device to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Uber has the data. DoorDash has the data.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's not there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
You would have to fundamentally change the SDK. The idea then that Apple can take a tax on that is outrageous. I think the whole app economy would blow up if Apple tried to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I encourage Apple to try to change the terms of service and see what happens.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Yeah, I think Vinod's comments are a microcosm of something that's a little bit bigger than just him and I think is roughly emblematic of the mainstream media, which is I think the four of us have found over the course of these last four years doing the podcast a rhythm. where there's a whole diversity of views. We've always respected each other. We've learned from each other.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And each of us have taken turns expressing something that the others have ended up converging on. That's not a holistic statement on every issue, but it has happened. And that's an incredible example of how you should figure things out from first principles, especially things that matter. And I think this is the first time, and you know, look, David said this a few years ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Yeah, totally. I think that climate change stalled when it was an emotional and philosophical rallying cry, largely of the left. when instead it became something about resilience and domestic manufacturing, both sides came together. And I think we're at a point now where the US's energy independence plus the amount of reliance on non-carbon based fuels will drive a sea change in the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think it'll be copied in Western Europe. And it's also going to be at enough of a low price point where it'll get embraced in the developing world. It's an incredible example of if you want to take an idea and a bunch of solutions and want to die on the hill of messaging and platitudes, it'll make no progress.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But if instead you're willing to be less extreme about it and actually just frame it in economic value add, All of a sudden, everybody embraces it and it just becomes obvious. So I think that we're going to do wonders over the next 20 and 30 and 40 years all over the world to push back on the general state of warming.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But I think it will have happened because the economic incentives aligned, not because of and a philosophical or emotional framing of the issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I have one more birthday in my family today. Making us all look bad. This is one of the most incredible people in my life. Charismatic, funny, charming, intelligent people. It is my bestie David Friedberg's birthday today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Thank you for showing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And? It's also AK-47. Alan Keating's birthday today as well. Oh, you guys have the same birthday. I love Alan Keating. Shout out to Alan Keating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
He said, Sachs did, that the course of elections will be driven by podcasts. And I didn't give that a full enough weighting at the moment when he said it. But I think what I'm realizing is it's not necessarily just that podcasts will frame elections, but it's the counterfactual, which is that it fills a vacuum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think what you're seeing right now are the reactions of people that have thrived in what used to work, which was a traditional media infrastructure that would shape how people were supposed to think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But then all of a sudden, if you can have a platform like this, where people just talk from first principles, respectfully, and then the chips are going to be what it is, and people will come to their own conclusions, I think that that's what people are reacting to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So I think what Vinod is reacting to is this sort of discomfort where you see four reasonable, intelligent people all of a sudden talk open-mindedly about what's happening in the presidential election. And what you leave out is the planted orthodoxy of what you're supposed to think. And that's disconcerting to him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's disconcerting and confusing maybe to Sorkin, who I think is a wonderful reporter and a thinker. It's disconcerting, Jason, to every single media outlet over the last week that's breathlessly been trying to get me or Saks to have an opinion on this. And the reason I've deleted all of these emails is they don't get a chance to frame what we think. Mm-hmm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
You can listen to the podcast and know what we think. This is the future of how smart, reasonable, moderate people should make decisions. It is an example. Talking to somebody you disagree with does not make your opinion bastardized. It actually makes your opinion valuable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
There are these simple truths to living a productive life that if you want to embrace, you need to find friends that you can trust. Even on issues when you disagree, you can hear them out. So that's what's happening right now. And I think that that's why we all need to sort of stand together and lock in arms and just keep moving forward. It is something really important here that's happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think that's why the media and these opinion makers are losing their minds.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I also think it's important to make sure that we reiterate again, at the sake of being pedantic, the facts, which is this is a nonpartisan show. And it is a platform that has showcased and given time to Democrats and Republicans and independents. And they've all taken us up on it. So that thought by Vinod is incredible. at best, incomplete, and more appropriately, just stupid and factually wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Larry Summers, Dean Phillips, Bobby Kennedy, Chris Christie. I mean, this is a spectrum of people that we are bringing on. Cheryl Sandberg. Cheryl Sandberg. You can hear from them. Jared Kushner. Jared Kushner. You can hear from them in an unfiltered way and come to your own conclusion. That's why we were number eight last week. That's the exact reason why.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think that that's very scary because instead of power brokers being able to filter an opinion, you now have an opportunity to just hear it for yourself, discuss it amongst your friends and come to your own conclusion. So we have always been bipartisan here and we will continue to be bipartisan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The second thing is, and I just want to say this again, I have asked the White House for President Biden to come on the show. Oh, come on the show, please. Yeah. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And it's getting very personal. Well said. Really well said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And so it's kind of like it's going to be the least effective.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
No, we do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Retrain, okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
For all listeners, I just want you to know they've been bickering like this for 20 years. So it's the funniest thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
LGBTQ, were they allowed?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Oh, shit. Let's go, Freeberg. Let's get this party started, baby. Come on, podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think it's a wonderful Rorschach test for basic intelligence. I mean, if you just read something and all of a sudden, like, that's my problem, it's probably not your problem. And so it's a great way to actually weed out the people that were just meant to fail anyways and just needed a way to externalize their frustration and have an excuse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I have never seen a person build a successful company unless they understood intimately the core amount of value that their company created and knew how to balance getting into the weeds with scaling through other people. I've never seen a good example of a great CEO that didn't do that well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And there is no word salad that explains this. It's incredibly unique to every single company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I would say it's their job to have the strategic wherewithal to understand what it takes to win. and then win at all costs. That's their job. And if you cannot win, and then you externalize your inability to win to an essay or something else, you're probably going to fail and your company's probably going to fail.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And they each did it uniquely. I don't think there's a single way in which any one of those companies is run that necessarily you could have cut and pasted it to the other companies and have it worked. So it requires a smart individual who understands their company and their human capital intimately well and their business model.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I don't see most founders starting a business because they've done some first principles analysis. I see most founders starting companies because they see a gap that they're pretty sure exists. But I think the biggest thing that founders have is this intersection of fearlessness and naivety. And so if they knew too much, they would never do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
that I don't think necessarily means that the entire set of all of those people are actually great first principles thinkers. The first principles is required after product market fit. What's required before product market fit is risk-taking, curiosity, relentless iteration, and those are a very different set of characteristics. Is it true that sub-founders can then change their toolkit?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Absolutely. But is it true that, quote unquote, because you have a title, you have those things? Absolutely not. Otherwise, we would have a much higher success rate in Silicon Valley than we do. There is a reason why 95% of these companies go to zero. It's because the ability to do the first thing is rare, and then the ability to transition is even more rare.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think that's a really good point. Like if you look at some technology businesses, they start off looking like technology businesses and what they really are are tech-enabled consumer businesses. Other businesses are pure technology companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And why that distinction is important in this context is that there are certain kinds of challenges you have in the former that you just don't have in the latter and vice versa. So if you're a Google or a Facebook and you run into some problem,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Typically, the solution is you can engineer around it because ultimately your product is free and there's a different way to scale and grow and create feature value because those are also incrementally free. If you look at a company like Airbnb and if you look at the last six months in the stock, what is it telling you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
It's telling you that the people that own it have realized that it's less of a technology business and it's more of a cyclical business. business that ebbs and flows with the ability to spend money on behalf of the consumer. So now all of a sudden you're put into a different bucket and you grow as people's belief ebbs and flows about the amount of spending that consumers have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Have you guys read Michael Ovitz's book? Yes. Oh, yeah. It's incredible. It's really incredible. It's a great book.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
That is independent of your product quality. And what that means is that there's no amount of investment in technology that you can really make to change that. People need to have excess capital in order to spend on vacations, and then you can capture your fair share of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
But if we're in a recession, that company will be under pressure in a way that has nothing to do with the internal product quality that they exhibit. So these are just dimensionality. It's just different kinds of problems that every single company faces that are totally unique to its own circumstances. So if you are...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Trying to point to some label as the reason why your company is failing, I would just encourage you to not do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Michael's incredible. It's a great book. What a playbook.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Well, I mean, Zuck, I think, did an incredible thing for me, which is he let my team cook. I don't remember having skip level meetings, this, that, none of this other nonsense. But at the same time, what he did was he created air cover for us because let's be honest, I was an immature executive at the time. So I was still learning how to be part of a fabric of a group of people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I did not know how to do that. So I was a little bit of a lone wolf operator with my team and I operated that way. You know, I would... Hey, guys, we get to 100 million people, we're all going to Vegas. And the rest of the company would be upset. And, you know, Mark and Cheryl's job would be to clean up the broken glass of everybody else saying, there's these haves and have nots at Facebook.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And in hindsight, who cares? Because it all worked. In the moment, I could see why everybody else was a little bit upset with that. So they did a wonderful job of letting this wonderful team of very curious iterators do their job. And they basically got out of the way. And I think that that's a wonderful thing. But is that repeatable?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Not in any other company, because that context and timing and moment was very unique. And again, my approach to the job was unique, not necessarily sustainable, not necessarily good or nor bad, different. And we adapted to those boundary conditions to maximize how we could deliver. But it doesn't mean anything to any other company, in my opinion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
He may be the first. I mean, Adyen, I think, is the first and really only company that's implemented AI in production at scale. It'll be really interesting to understand where that's gone in the last year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
How about slightly differently? There are stupid outcomes and smart outcomes. And there are all kinds of different people that can get to stupid outcomes and smart outcomes. And so you have to have the courage to say, that was stupid. Don't ever do that again. And that was smart. Do more of that. And if you can't distinguish the two or you can't get to the latter, you're going to fail.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Instead of founder mode, why don't we call it founder responsibility? Like what are the responsibilities?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Steph Curry is not the founder of the Warriors, but he's the linchpin. Okay. My point is teams, teams need winning players. And then you need to put together your own game plan for winning, but the goal should be winning. If you are not winning, you are a loser.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You gotta win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Winning, winning. If you're not winning, you're losing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Is he going to talk about his experience at Uranus?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I want to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
To your point, like a senior real estate executive would have put together a forecast of cash flows and it would have been a very boring meeting. But if you didn't have the intellectual wherewithal to realize that that was a critical meeting for a real estate business and then listen to that and then manage your burn appropriately, that was a huge mistake.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So again, it just, it always comes down to, can you take all the labels and all of the, you know, navel gazing aside, and can you make good, smart decisions when you're asked to run the play? That's your job at every level of a company. And a CEO that knows how to do that tends to helm winning companies. And I don't think that that is exhibited in whether you are employee zero or employee 20.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
It's an intellectual and psychological archetype.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
That's actually the most important thing that I've heard in this whole discussion that we don't talk enough about. The people that win are deeply intellectually promiscuous. They're learning about many, many things. They're adapting things to their own playbook. The next day, they may throw that piece away and take something else because it's something they learned.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
We use the word re-underwrite a lot, right? But it's this idea of constantly re-underwriting what the conditions on the field are so you know what you need to do in that moment to maximize your chances of success.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Because Sequoia had this reputation in the 90s and early 2000s as somebody that would boot the founders. But when you look at Sequoia's returns, what their returns say is these guys are just winners. They're consummate, incredible winners.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And so what Sequoia had the ability to do, clearly looking backwards, is figure out which companies had people that were adapting themselves and scaling and people who were a little bit in a cul-de-sac and just needed to get replaced. And again, they were operating from a first principles perspective, in my opinion, and they were being Pretty ruthless and acting with zero nostalgia.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So, again, it's just a reminder, like, there is no easy answer here. It is so hard. That is why 95 plus percent of our companies and our efforts end up with nothing to show for it at the end of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Did you say you met with Eric Schmidt recently, Shema? Well, I had a meeting with Eric Schmidt a few weeks ago, which blew my mind. And I think I called Freeberg right afterwards. But this is just an example of like, there are just people that know how to win. He is one of those people. So as part of 8090, one of the things that we're doing is we're building a transpiler.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You know, right now, everybody is very much fixated on PyTorch and The problem with PyTorch and building to NVIDIA is you have this thing called CUDA in the middle of it, which is owned by NVIDIA. And I think that over time, that's problematic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So the long-term solution is you need a functional transpiler that can take CUDA littered code, but be able to compile it without losing performance to any hardware. So Amazon hardware, Google TPU, et cetera. So Eric and I sat down, we were together for a couple of days when we were in Europe and we had like a hour, 90 minute meeting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
The level of technical detail and mastery that he had blew me away. And he asked hundreds of very, very, very specific questions, some of which I knew the answers to, some of which I didn't. I was able to ask him what he thought, he was able to go into the weeds in an enormous amount of detail. And what I thought was,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Where is he finding the time to know as much as he does about compilers and the specifics of AI at this level of detail? And the story of telling you this example is just more that that is a kind of person that is just rare and unique. You can't put a label on that person. And you just want that person near you because he has the ability to help you in a way that most other people just do not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
irrespective of whatever their title is. So it just goes to say, you gotta focus on the actual meat of the problem. And in that specific case, he gave us two technical directions that my team and I are exploring now with this goal that if one of them pans out, I'll go back to Eric and say, look, We tried these things. This is working. This is not working. What do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And it was an incredibly helpful meeting to me. And he just offered that time to me. And so my point is, people like this exist. And I think that the whole goal, if you're trying to win, seek those people out, independent of what they're doing, what their title is. Get them on your team. Learn from them as much as you can. And hopefully you get one step closer to winning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And get them on your team if possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Ideally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Exactly. They're like, get out of the way. Where's Jimmy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Let me break down an algorithm for you. Okay, effectively, it is a mathematical equation of variables and weights. An editor 50 years ago was somebody who had that equation of variables and weights in his or her mind. And so all we did was we translated, again, this multimodal model that was in somebody's brain into a model that's mathematical, that sits in code.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, and I think it's a fig leaf to say that because there is not an individual person who writes 0.2 in front of this one variable and 0.8 in front of the other, that all of a sudden that this isn't editorial decision-making is wrong. We need to understand the current moment in which we live. which is that these computers are thinking actively for us. And that is just true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And so I think we need to acknowledge that because I think it allows us at least to be in a position to rewrite these laws through the lens of the 21st century.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think it is a fig leaf to say that there's a level of abstraction that should give us immunity. I think that these algorithms are taught to iteratively become better and better at hooking people on whatever is trending in that moment. And I think it's probably known to these companies at any given time what's trending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So even though they're not literally going and changing something in the moment, doesn't mean that they don't support it and doesn't mean that they're not aware of it. And it doesn't mean that they haven't created a net to sort of catch these lightnings in a bottle and spread them around.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And so I think we just need to have a more intelligent discussion about how responsibility should be shared in a world where Section 230, yeah, you're right. I'll just say it again. We're not writing deterministic code anymore. It doesn't say if this, then that, show them the blackout video. There is no piece of code anywhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
But it's kind of a fig leaf to say that that isn't the intention of the way that the new form of software is written.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Co-founder of Cotu.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
It's like, I don't think it's about making me angry. I hear what you're saying, but I would offer something slightly different, which is I think that these algorithms focus on momentum. So meaning if Freeberg spends the next 15 minutes looking at mountain biking videos, the momentum shifts to mountain biking. If he then goes to surfing, the algorithm goes to that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And the reason is that the way that these, if you go back to the actual models themselves, the way that they're architected, right? Like if you look inside of a transformer, what is it? There's a neural network part and then there's a self-attention part. What is the self-attention thing trying to do? It's trying to figure out the momentum and the importance of a given input.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So the core structure of the way that like we've solved the problem today is erring towards a thing where If actors in the system wanted to create momentum in one direction versus the other, they can probably do it before they get caught, because the algorithms will amplify that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And I think this is the whole point where these blackout videos, it's not as if somebody wanted to consume that per se, as much as there was a moment in time where the momentum was towards those videos, a large swath of people got it. And then the unfortunate tragedy is the very small percentage of people acted on it and were killed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
This can happen over and over and over again, and all kinds of different things. And I think that's what needs to be addressed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yes, that's my excuse too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I got a little founder mode there. Thanks for looking out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You want me to do that for you and get people right? Yeah, go for it. Can you guys Theo Vaughn it? How would you guys Theo Vaughn this? Go ahead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Jason, let's say the quiet part out loud, okay? We've heard this from Bobby Kennedy. We've heard this from a whole host of other people. We've now heard this from the DOJ. There is an inextricable link between the media and the people that pay for the media that want to influence what the media says. We know that to be true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Now, in this specific case, I hope the DOJ runs us to the ground and gets justice served. What I would say generally is the most incredible decision we ever made is to not have ads. It has been the single biggest clarifying function for our ability to maintain our own opinions and be credible. It's allowed us to change our minds. It's allowed us to evolve.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
If we were sort of characters in a movie, we will have gone through different
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
transitions frankly as as these last four years have gone by i think that that would have been much harder to do if we had people paying us money yes so this is just yet another example of your media diet the more it can come from people who don't need to make money from this the better off you will be because you will get earnest opinions and what will happen is whether it's
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
large multinational corporations or foreign state actors, they are going to find unwitting people to take this money and blather on some set of talking points. Yep. On a whole host of topics.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Let your winners ride. Rain Man, David Saxon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, so if you're spending 10K a month. I have seven friends and family tickets left. I'm starting seven companies in the next half hour. They're all going to the summit. I'm going to clear $2.3 million of credits, and I'm going to sell them on eBay for $500,000.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think that this is all the tactics leading to the debate on September the 10th. I think that a lot of this polling, you're seeing the sugar high fade on both sides. And I think what we can acknowledge is that the setup going into this debate is eerily reminiscent of the setup going into the first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
which was a very profound sensation that there was a popular vote advantage to the Democratic candidate, Hillary then, Kamala now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
But what everybody got wrong last time, and now what people are doing a much more refined job, other than Nate Silver, this time around, is then being able to do a more nuanced look at the electoral college probability, which is in the opposite direction, favoring Donald Trump and not Kamala. So I think that the Democrats have realized that the sugar high isn't going to win the election.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
They need to be specific in ways that gets moderates. And the only way to do that is to tack to the middle. Because a lot of these other trial balloons were kind of nutty. And those people are not going to win them the election in the key states that matter. Again, it's what we've said before. Five things in five states, right? That's what it's going to come down to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
This is hilarious.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I was confused when I read it. because everybody was breathlessly panting about how incredibly insightful it was. And when I read it, my first thought was, where's the second half that actually explains what this is so that you can have an opinion? And then the next thing I thought was, I don't really understand what any of this is all about. And I tweeted this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
In a quarter century now in Silicon Valley, I think I've encountered two different kinds of people. One are the groups of people that can go right to the heart of issues because they can break things down and look at it from first principles and just ruthlessly attack what's not working with absolutely no nostalgia for people or sunk cost or tech debt. And then there's everybody else.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And I think that that is an archetype that actually drives successful companies. It's not the case that those are only exhibited in founders. I think it's a psychological makeup of a person and the people that have it tend to build good companies. You know, we'll have such a person, for example, at the All In Summit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
If you look at what Nikesh Arora was able to do at Palo Alto Networks, it's incredible. I mean, in eight years, he's created $80 billion of value. How do you do that? I think it's important to understand how that happens. If you look at a whole bunch of other people that are managers, Shantanu Narayan, how has he built Adobe? Satya Nadella, how did he build Microsoft?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
These are all just like a handful of examples of people that have just tacked on collectively trillions of dollars of market cap, way more than all founders added together in most companies, but for one or two. So I think the takeaway is instead of looking for some label,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think you're going to have to do the really hard work if you want a successful business, which is when things are working, have the courage to change the few things that still need changing. And when things are not working, break it down to the studs. And most people don't have the courage to go through the glass eating that is required to get to the other side of that process.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I'm doing well. I turned 48 two days ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
But explain that. What does that mean? Young people will be upset to know that both things happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
One of the things that happened after the Holocaust was there was still a small cohort of people that denied that it ever happened. And I think that there was, to use the word systematic again, a systematic effort to document. There's pictures, there's museums, there's memorials. You can think what you want of World War II or Jews in general, but you can't deny that that happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And the documentation of it is pretty unambiguous or completely unambiguous. When you spent time there, is there an effort to start doing this? And here's where I'm getting to, which is kind of a morbid question, but there was a moment in this documentary where this woman who was the doctor in the morgue, I guess, is talking about all of these bodies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And unfortunately, where my mind went to, but I think it's kind of the right thought, is I hope that there was rape kits done, even if it's posthumously done, Because that's the trail of evidence that allows one to know squarely inside of a box, this is the totality of what happened as a learning lesson for everybody, including not just the people that disagree, but the people that agree.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And then to reinforce some of these basic rights that we thought we've all signed up for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Tell me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Yeah, huge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Cheryl, what is the response in Israel today? How do you judge what Netanyahu is doing both in reaction to the events, but then in reaction to these specific aspects of the events? What are they doing that's different or what would you wish they were doing differently? Or can you just give us a sense of how people are processing this aspect?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
It's to humiliate a people, right? It's to humiliate a country, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Of course, yes. Do we have to log it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Oh, you're going to reveal who Fake Chamath is?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Let's explore that for a second. So when you see the videos, what you see are young people, but you see a lot of young women and many of the leaders of these of these movements on campuses now. The spokespeople are women. The leadership seems mostly to be women. Do you have a reaction to that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Oh, wow. It's a big reveal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Do you have a thought on that when you see these folks and that they should be closer to this realization maybe than a man could theoretically overlook it or try to block it out, but it's actually the leadership of these organizations tend to be mostly women-led and they're basically like, let's keep going and it's about this resistance. How do you react to that when you see that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Sure, why not?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Right, I saw it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Do you think Columbia has done a good job? Well, if you were president of Harvard, what would you have done differently, Cheryl?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I think it's not necessarily the youth, meaning I think you're seeing it in some very specific places that cater to a very specific kind of youth. You see them at Columbia, Harvard. There are these specific Berkeley, UCLA that are bastions of privileged kids for the most part. These are extremely elite institutions that typically...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
allow in kids that have been coached their entire lives to get into those schools. And I think that they're coming there with a lack of fulfillment. And it reminds me at some level of how people reacted to Occupy Wall Street. meaning there were a whole bunch of young people there that probably didn't even know what the whole Occupy Wall Street movement was about. But they showed up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And I think what they found a decade and a half ago or so was community in this weird way. The physical interaction of other people where you had this intimacy around a thing. I'm not condoning Occupy Wall Street, just like I'm not condoning what's happening on campuses. But I think psychologically, what kids are looking for is that level of attachment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And to your point, David, something that they can feel strongly about. And I think they end up getting to the age of 18 and 19, not having felt strongly about anything because they were working on playing nine sports and 14 instruments and all this other bullshit to go to these schools. And then they get there and they feel a little empty. And sometimes negative things can fill the void.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
It's a decision. You just said it. It's a decision.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I knew this, but- There are very few things as you grow older that you realize in life that matters. Thank you. Friends are, that's it. It's just friends.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
That's all you have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
It's a hard pivot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Let's not even try. Also, what's your view on crypto?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
When I watched the documentary, I thought the most important thing is there are these, you said it, Jason, in the fog of war, there are things that happen that are just wholly unacceptable. I remember when I was getting older and I was curious, why did my family not go back to Sri Lanka?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And what do the Tamils, which is a small minority, Hindu minority in the majority Buddhist population, why did they feel so out of sorts? And we were part of the Buddhist majority. And when you insert yourself into that struggle and understand where they're coming from, It's jarring because you have to really like re-underwrite, okay, what are we fighting for? What are they fighting for?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And the most important thing that I got to is what is allowed? Because then you would see things. And the unfortunate part of Sri Lanka's history was in the final parts of the war that ended it, there were some incredible atrocities that were committed. And the United Nations and international court system
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
tried to find justice for the Tamil minority population in what happened in those final hours of that war. I don't think that they did for the most part. But it's just to show you that these things leave deep wounds that frankly can be reopened in a moment. So it's very important that I think these things are, and I hate to say it so unemotionally, but documented.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
for those that don't even understand the Holocaust, if you go to the Holocaust Museum, if you're lucky enough to do it in Israel, I would encourage you to do it, but even in Washington, you know the totality of what happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
There's certain places that document these important moments in history, and if this is one of those moments to the Israeli people, I just encourage them, please make sure that you minimize the mis- and disinformation
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Yeah. And by the way, humans have a way of making decisions, which I think is pretty predictable, which is once you have a point of view, there are things that you believe are facts. And then there's all this other stuff that you have degrees in which you believe that are essentially conjecture.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
The most important thing in really important debates is to move something from that gray zone into the box of facts. So to speak. And that is the only way that causes people to re-underwrite their principle views. It doesn't matter what topic we're talking about.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So the more that we're able to document and actually make these things unambiguous, I think it actually has a really important role to play in how these young people view what it is that they're a part of. I'm totally pro-protesting. I'm totally in support of standing up for the things that you believe in. I'm not in support of overlooking atrocities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
The Jennifer Duden side or the...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So they use an AI model to... find a new guide RNA?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So it works around every single existing pattern.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I'm on the same page as you. This was occurring billions of years ago. And it just took us billions of years to actually observe it occurring naturally in nature. It's absolutely ridiculous that a patent would be granted on that. Now, the implementation of that in a commercial use case, that's fine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Let's double click into that word denial. So it's a very heightened moment. Everybody is taking sides. Everybody's trying to interpret what they think is the right point of view, whether it's in that moment or historically in the arc of how Israel and Palestine have been in conflict. where does that aspect of denial come from?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Have you spent time trying to unpack like, how do you start to get to a place where you say clearly people were killed, but then when it goes into war crimes and sexual violence, we're actually gonna stop it there because it basically pulls our cause back. So we can't agree that that actually happened. How does that happen? Why is that happening?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
How good do I look? I'm so sun-kissed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
You think she can just hide out and coast? No, right now the calculation is to get as many people... to basically move into the not Trump voting stance. And they're giving as much time as possible to measure that and see if it's a winning strategy. But again, and I think we just talked about this, mathematically, it can win the popular vote, but it will not win the electoral college.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
So she is going to have to appear and be in a position where she's confronted on about four or five key issues. And that's where this presidency is going to get decided. Four or five issues in four or five states, and we'll all know where she stands. On the border, on the economy. By the way, the problem is, and if you look at what's happening now, we are in a recessionary stance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
There's going to be a lot of ink that gets spilled starting in September on the fact that X of a handful of companies were basically in a recession. So that's going to have to get put on the feet of the sitting president and the sitting vice president. So there's a whole set of complicated issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I think it's smart, actually, for her to strategically kind of stay quiet right now and just kind of see All the goodwill that's pent up to the not Trump candidate is going to flow her way. Right. The problem is that that's not enough to sustain yourself for 100 days. And so she's just going to have to take a point of view.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
On the popular vote, Harris has a 57.1% probability of winning the popular vote, 42.9% probability for Trump. I guess I'll start it off with David Sachs. given the momentum coming out of the gate since the announcement of Harris as the Democratic nominee and this recent polling data, what's your read on the landscape today? What's your read on where we stand and what's ahead here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
No, because I think, David, I think you're right. Because when you go into a debate or when you go into these places, people will want to know the answers to these questions. And if the media tries to memory hold this thing, I think the thing that they most don't want, which is another Trump victory, will actually happen because of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Because people will come in, this kind of like ambivalent group of folks that are, or independent group of folks that are looking for very clear point of view on four or five issues, maybe will come to a rally. And instead of that, they'll hear Megan Thee Stallion, and they'll wonder to themselves, well, this is not what I came for. I came to know where you stand on these four or five issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
So the media actually, in order to give her the best chance of getting elected, and this is counterintuitive to them, which is why they probably won't do it, they'll have to confront her on these issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Yeah, I think that's fair. And that's why I invite Vice President Harris onto the All In podcast to join us for a conversation. I think we all really enjoy that. And just to declare my position, I am in camp five, the other camp. I am not pro or anti either of these candidates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I obviously have issues that I think are far more existential to the longevity of the United States and the Republic that need to be addressed, that don't seem to be a priority for either candidate or either party. As I've mentioned many times on the show, that's where I stand. Let's move on, Sax.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I just want to ask, do you think that Trump is at risk of shooting himself in the foot by being too public, too open, and too engaging? If we take a look at what happened this week, the National Association of Black Journalists had a convention on Wednesday. It sent interview requests to both President Trump and Vice President Harris, and Trump accepted and went in person.
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Harris said she couldn't do it in person or via Zoom. And according to the National Association of Black Journalists, Harris is in talks to do a Q&A session with them at some point in September. There were two moments that are making a lot of news. One was the first question. Nick, can you play this? Where ABC's Rachel Scott went after Trump.
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And what do you take away from these polls?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Sachs, is he shooting himself in the foot by agreeing to show up? He showed up to the Bitcoin conference, which obviously went phenomenally well. But Sachs, is he shooting himself in the foot by being too open and engaging too much? And should he lay low?
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OK, so your opinion is Trump needs to continue to engage openly and publicly. It shows strength and it shows a capacity to deal with adversity and conflict. Point taken. So let's pull up the next clip where Scott then asked Trump if Harris was a DEI candidate. And here's his answer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Timoth, let me ask for your response. Did Trump shoot himself in the foot with that comment? And maybe you can give us your read on how he's doing with respect to this, you know, active engagement with obviously adverse, let's call them, you know, journalists and interviews and forums.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I'd love to hear from the Caucasians. What do you guys think about that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, I'm not talking about the answer itself. I'm talking more about Trump getting out there and like engaging in this way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, here's what I will say.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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social media tools replacing traditional media, and then with AI tools that are going to create enormous amounts of very sophisticated misinformation and disinformation. I think the only strategy for politicians from here on out is to leave zero ambiguity between what you think and what you say. And so without judging the quality of the answer,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think the thing that is going to be the most critical for people is to know that the person that you're voting for is in charge. And you get a great chance to vote this person up or down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the more content that that person puts out directly, the less likely it is that this ambiguity exists that can then get exploited, whether it's by internal people inside of a country or whether it's foreign adversaries. And so my perspective is, It's pretty fearless of somebody to just constantly say what they think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And again, I'll just go back to what I said before with respect to the Harris campaign. I think that Americans were smart enough, and I think you did a good job of dissecting the electorate into five groups. Americans were smart enough to basically say never Biden because of the risk it represented to not know what one was voting for, irrespective of whatever your historic allegiances were.
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I think they're smart enough now to demand answers to the four or five questions that really matter. And I think if Paris wants to really win this and give it a legitimate shot, she's going to have to take a point of view on these five things. And she's going to have to step into the lion's den and be asked very tough questions by a lot of different people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And she's going to have to leave no ambiguity that can be then exploited by misinformation and disinformation between now and the election. So, you know, that's honestly my reaction. Zach, final word?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I do think that the rise of the authentic politician, the rise of the authentic CEO slash typically founder, the rise of the authentic celebrity is definitely the trend that we're seeing, which is that authenticity counts for more than anything, regardless of one's position. And, you know, obviously having trust and
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in the individual is rooted in the authentic capacity of the individual rather than the teleprompter CEO or the teleprompter politician or the teleprompter or buttoned up or image managed celebrity. And that's definitely been a trend that's been building over the last 10 years, culminating in a lot of these changes that we're now seeing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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By the way, I mean, this is one of the criticisms of a lot of higher... large enterprise CEOs is that they come in, they have all their words written for them by our media team. They have all of their communication scripted, managed. Every press interview is with the right journalists said in the right way. And the CEOs that seem to build the greatest value
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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are those who are typically founders because they're willing and able to be authentic because they weren't hired by the board. It's their business that they built. And so they're willing to be authentic. And the CEOs who operate at scale with authenticity build the greatest market value.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think people, I think voters look at policy sacks and they look at character And with respect to character, there's a certain value that they ascribe to this authenticity component, which is typically lacking in most politicians. And Trump delivers that authentic component in how he talks and how he's off the cuff and so on. He's got other character issues, which I think hurt him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And on the policy side, people really kind of look at those objectively, those points. What's your policy? And do I trust you as your character?
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Yeah, it gets driven from the bottom instead of from the top.
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I'd like to talk about what's been, I think, a lot of chatter amongst friends of ours who are active in the market that at a policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed held rates steady. Jerome Powell said, quote, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table in September if inflation continues to fall.
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He said, we're getting closer to the point at which it'll be appropriate to reduce our policy rate, but we're not quite at that point. The next Fed meeting where this rate cut could happen is September 17th and 18th. And if you look at the futures markets today, the market is now estimating a 20% probability of a 50-bip rate cut in the September meeting
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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80% probability of a 25-bit rate cut, and basically no probability of no rate cut anymore in September. Chamath, is that your read on where we're at? And is the Fed kind of appropriately reading the economic tea leaves, given the recessionary indicators that you just mentioned earlier, and what else we're seeing that the Fed's mandate obviously
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is meant to support both the monetary policy, but also employment in this country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think we're in a recession. And I think the problem with a recession is even as inflation diminishes, if your purchasing power is shrinking faster than prices fall, it still feels like prices are going up. I don't know if you guys have been reading the Wall Street Journal, but like the last couple of days, they've been doing a whole series on people that have been left behind by inflation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I was really surprised as I read those articles, just the sheer quantity of impact in terms of the number of people it's touching independent of salary. And so my takeaway kind of just reinforced the fact that we've sort of like looked past the problem because of the stock market going up. for the last few quarters because of seven companies.
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And now that people are sobering up to the reality that even they don't have an answer for all the money they're spending, the stock market's down next to those seven businesses. And I think that you're going to start to see some real pain in the fall. So Jerome Powell is probably going to cut 25. And I think that if they get to him, he'll try to cut 50.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But the problem is it won't solve the problem. And I think if... This is, again, where Kamala Harris has to be. She's going to have to make a very difficult calculation here, which is she's going to have to throw Joe Biden and the economic team in the White House under the bus here and say that was them. Yes, they screwed it up. It was against my wishes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And here's my vision for how we fix this, because otherwise the Republicans will be all over it. And I think if you have a bad economy like what it looks like going into November, it's going to be very difficult for the Democrats to to win the White House.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, without bringing it back to politics, Sachs, economy, good or bad? And is Jerome Powell going to cut rates 25 bips, 50 bips? Do you agree with what the market's forecasting?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's not just fully supported. It's overly supported by the federal government in the United States. And I mentioned this last week. Federal government spending is over 2x the sum of all state spending. Federal government spending into next year with the Biden budget proposal, $7.3 trillion. Yeah. That's like 30% of GDP.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think you guys may remember this analysis I pulled together a couple months ago, where I estimate something close to 30% of US employment is either direct government employment or indirect government employment through government payments to third parties that are employing those individuals. So the government is becoming...
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an integral part of maintaining the flow of dollars in the economy because they are such an integral buyer and seller within the economy and an integral employer within the economy and so to reverse that trend is what i worry about more than anything as i've shared many times which is why i question whether either political candidate actually solves this problem for us and we're almost like you know arguing over which marbles i get while the titanic is sinking
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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that there is a real fundamental issue with how this economy is structured. I will tell you anecdotally, I have a lot of conversations with folks that work in the agriculture industry, in the food industry, in the industrial industry, many of these industries that have a very different capital flow cycle than we all deal with typically in Silicon Valley and software.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And many of them are struggling. I mean, these are businesses where some folks have told me orders completely fell off a cliff in capital equipment. that some small business owners that sell whatever pieces of equipment you want to come up with, they are not getting orders. There's no revenue. There are massive oversupply and underpurchasing happening in the food and ag markets.
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And yet folks are still trying to push up prices in order to make the debt payments that they have to make on their high interest debt now. And that creates a crippling condition for them. Across the economy, I think there's the haves and the have-nots, as is indicated in this
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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article that was just pulled up where there are some parts of the economy where you have low debt, high margin businesses that can continue to scale and continue to raise pricing, have a lot of elasticity in pricing. And then there are the others that operate on, you know, 1% interest rate charges, the changes drive their profit or loss for the year in a pretty meaningful way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And that's the part of the economy that's really suffering. And unfortunately, the action that will be taken to resolve this isn't necessarily a free market action. It's gonna end up being some sort of government intervention, which furthers the government's involvement in the economy and furthers the tentacles that make it much harder to ultimately pull out of this spiral and this problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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That's my rant on this whole point, but.
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All of it, more than 100%. So basically, there has been a net loss in private market jobs, net of the effect of government employment or government spending on companies that then use those dollars to go hire people. Let's talk about the impact on markets. So as a result of this rate cut announcement or this rate cut indication, markets have rallied a little bit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But to Chamath's point, there are definitely the haves and the have-nots. AMD beat. They were up 4% after hours on improved AI chip sales. Their revenue was $5.8 billion, up 9% year over year. Microsoft had so-so results. NVIDIA jumped 12% on some comments made by Meta. and Microsoft that both said that there's increased AI demand and they're going to continue to build out capacity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So Chamath, I know you've talked a lot about this in the past. Maybe you can give us your read on the comments that were made this week. You've historically said that a lot of this build out is well ahead and there's no real ROI yet. But clearly some of the buyers of this capital equipment are saying, hey, there is ROI. We're going to continue to build aggressively.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So maybe you can share a little bit on is anything different or we've just kind of seeing folks justify with the decisions they've made.
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I mean, sadly, this is another case of sell the news. These things rallied phantomly in the after hours. And if you look at them, they've all just given back every dollar of gains. So I think that people know that that we're sort of at the tail end of the hype cycle in AI. And every chance, every time these things spike, people take an opportunity to just massively sell.
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I mean, Nvidia has turned over 308 million shares today.
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Yeah, it's crazy. It's literally- We're just at the beginning of the day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's trading like a penny stock. It's going straight down like a lead balloon. Yeah. Meta rallied. They've basically given up all of their gains. It's gone kind of straight down today. But the point isn't that these companies are going to zero. That's not the case. It's just the point is that right now people are optimizing, they're selling every chance they get to kind of book the profits.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think that that's fair because, you know, at some point, nobody knows when all of this phantom money is going to show up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Right. So this is independent of what we would call the economy, independent of the recessionary conversation and the rate conversation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Look, I mean, I'm in the middle of this right now with 80-90. It's been one of the joys of my career to actually start a company. in the middle of what I think is the most important wave that I've ever seen professionally since social networking. And I jumped into the middle of that wave and I kind of tried to ride the best wave I could there. I'm doing it here.
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But my honest takeaway after being in this thing now for seven months intensely, and I'll be into it for as many years as it takes to build a successful company, is that AI is massively deflationary. It takes not that much money. And the results are really meaningful in terms of the amount of efficiency that you can capture and the costs that you can save. And the right business people, i.e.
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startups that are starting from scratch, like myself and my co-founders at 8090, we will pass that on to our customers because it allows us to differentially price versus incumbent solutions. And so I don't see a path where all of a sudden a multiple of the money that's been spent shows up. I don't see it. I do see a path where companies find tremendous, like think about it this way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you looked in the 1980s, and said, what is the most profitable operational company that existed in the 80s? I don't know what that company was, but I suspect that their EBITDA margins were roughly in the 30 or 40% range, and it was probably incredible. If you fast forward now 40 years, the most efficient company is probably sort of 50 or 60% EBITDA margins.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The reality is that the best AI-enabled company will probably have margins that are 70% and 80% in the next 15 or 20 years. Now, that's an incredible thing. That's a big prediction. But that will, again, spur the principal law of capitalism that everybody keeps forgetting, which is you compete out excess return.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so while you will have many companies that have 60-plus percent operating margins, they'll be in much smaller markets. And there'll be thousands and thousands and thousands of them. So I suspect what happens is that the overall market grows, but the number of companies grows by an even larger order of magnitude.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And in all of that, the reality is that it's going to be very hard for these big folks to sort of see this value capture that makes any of this investment worthwhile. So I think that you're going to have to have some sort of reset in terms of the CapEx that's happened here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I want to switch gears yet again and talk about the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. I hope I pronounced that right. Haniyeh. He was killed by a bomb while staying in a guest house in Tehran, according to the New York Times. Earlier reports indicated that he was in fact killed by a missile strike from Israel.
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But just this morning, the New York Times reported that the guest house where he stayed is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and is part of a large compound known as Neshat in an upscale neighborhood of Northern Tehran. And the article in the New York Times goes on to report that according to several Middle Eastern sources,
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a bomb, a remotely detonated bomb was actually planted in this guest house over two months ago in anticipation of the Hamas leader's stay in this guest house. And it was then set off once he actually stayed in the guest house. This obviously represents kind of an incredible feat in operational capacity and intelligence.
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I think we've known and talked a lot about, and the media is kind of covered quite a bit about the capacity of Mossad. But I just want to kind of get your guys' reaction to this.
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I think that there's a bigger and important story here about the strength of Israel's intelligence and military capacity in the region and what that could mean for their posturing and their demands and their activity in the region in the months and years ahead, particularly with Netanyahu still in charge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So, Sachs, maybe you can kick us off with your thoughts on this article and Mossad's role in the assassination of this Hamas leader.
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Let me put you in Netanyahu's seat. You are leading Israel. Hamas comes into your country, attacks, kills lots of people. What is your measured response to that attack from Hamas, given the capacity you have? The Israeli Air Force, by the way, is second only to the United States, just to give you some... statistics. The Israeli Air Force has 90,000 active and reserve personnel and 614 aircraft.
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Israel is reported to have up to 400 nuclear weapons. And they have this extraordinary technical capacity with Mossad and operational capacity that is kind of unrivaled pretty much anywhere in the world, it seems. What do you do if you're sitting in that Yahoo seat that provides a more kind of measured response? And how do you kind of lead your nation?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. Chamath, do you want to read? I think that it was, in hindsight, a pretty big miscalculation by Netanyahu to pursue the strategy that they did. And I would have much preferred what you're seeing now, which is a very targeted approach.
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I think it preserves and it would have preserved not just world political support, but just individual people support, where instead of going into Gaza, leveling the place, creating all of this death and destruction and amplifying and confusing
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people where they now all of a sudden had to make a decision between these two groups and now get confused with anti-Semitic sentiment, that should never have happened. It's clear that Mossad is incredibly competent and incredibly capable. I do believe that sovereign countries have the right to defend themselves.
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But then there was a bridge too far, and I think the Israeli government has crossed it. In hindsight, and I think I told you this story, and I may have relayed this in confidence, but I'll just say it again. On October the 8th, what was offered, and I'm not going to say by who, was sort of a meeting of the right political leadership from the Middle East.
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Israel and the United States, where they were all willing to sort of come. And the idea would have been to extend some sort of structured solution for the Palestinian people. Now, that would have been so unintuitive and unexpected. I think everybody would have been a little bit on their heels. But I think what it would have done is it would have passed Netanyahu in an incredible light.
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It would have passed Israel in an incredible light. They would have still preserved the ability to go and kill the individual leaders that they wanted to. but it was rejected.
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And I think that when we look back, these are the kinds of decisions that hopefully history documents accurately so that folks who are in the seat to your point free bird the next time around can make a different calculation. I see, you see the pictures and there's just no way that you can turn them off.
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You know what I mean? I think Israel's biggest asset is probably also their biggest liability, which is their military and intelligence strength. and it emboldens them in a way that they can be more aggressive than perhaps they need to be with respect to maintaining the security of the state, but perhaps being vengeful and vindictive.
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And I know that that's a very controversial statement to be made. I wanna underscore the strength of this military and this intelligence. Do you guys remember the Stuxnet worm from a number of years ago? That story was incredible. The New York Times broke this story in 2012. Duxnet was a malicious computer worm.
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And I'm reading off of Wikipedia because there's a lot of reporting that has different opinions on this. That was first uncovered in 2010 and was thought to have been in development since at least 2005. Now, this computer worm was supposedly developed by Mossad and the NSA. And it was a malicious computer worm that ultimately allowed intrusion
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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into the control systems of the centrifuges of Iran's uranium refining systems. And they basically were then able to make those centrifuges go haywire and destroyed themselves. And they did this over and over for several years. And the Iranians could not figure out what was going on or why. They kept it completely secret.
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Ultimately, it was revealed that there was this operation organized by the United States called Operation Olympic Games. That was a cyber disruption operation. And that Mossad had a critical role in.
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By the way, there are two other stories that build on top of this that are tangential but related. One is that there was a nuclear engineer that Israel felt should be unlit. And the way that they did it was via some like remote control machine gun that they planted off of like a highway where the car egressed off the highway and then all of a sudden the thing was shot up.
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A different example was there's a story about how they figured out that Yasser Arafat was sick because they were able to collect a stool sample from a pipe that left his home. and they were able to kind of diagnose that A, it was his stool, and then B, he had some chronic illness.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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My point, I think, in all of this is kind of where you're going, which is that when you have such capability and such precision, to go to the other end of the spectrum, you really have to be sure that you're right. And, you know, as Zach said, I think we're looking back and it's clear that the support around the world, it just isn't there for that kind of mass casualty and that kind of like
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Hey everybody, welcome back to the All In Pod. This week, our hostess with the mostess, J-Cal is out with COVID, getting treated, spending the day in bed. We wish him well. We wish him a speedy recovery. We are going to plow forward like all championship teams do. This week, I think we're going to kick it off with a conversation about the election update.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, I mean, it's just like the Russians and the Americans trying to chase the Taliban in Afghanistan forever. This is not a group of individuals that once they're gone, everything is fixed.
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Do you think that J.D. Vance has negatively affected the interest in Trump, that there's a lot of media coverage about J.D. Vance being potentially the wrong pick for vice president and that he's creating more of a challenge for the president's campaign than a boom?
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I recently heard that After Israel struck the embassy in Damascus a few months ago, you may remember this, Iran launched a counterattack. And you remember there were all these like drones that they sent hundreds of them into Israel. But there was supposedly a forewarning that these drones were on the way. There was notice given and it was like, this is it.
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This is our proportional response and we're done. That's right. That's right. What I heard was that Netanyahu did not want to stop. He wanted to escalate after that response from Iran. Now, that coupled with what's going on in the West Bank right now
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where there is a restricted movement of Palestinians within the West Bank and continued development of Jewish settlements, I think really represents a major risk to the region, the Middle East region, that we could see an escalation beyond the response that may be mandated or necessary to secure the state
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that makes things much, much worse in the region and could isolate Israel even further and ultimately draw a lot of powers to that region to try and figure out what side are you on and how do we resolve this? And that could lead to something much bigger and much nastier. So I think while we all observe this and watch this, the behavior of the the targeted attack in Hamas.
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For me, it's not the issue as much as indicating the capacity of this military and this intelligence that means that they probably feel highly emboldened to take whatever steps individuals feel are necessary to secure the state for the long run, which could mean an increased escalation in conflict. And that's, I think, a real kind of point of concern.
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And that's one of the black swan events, I think, that's still outstanding right now. Because if that does happen, if there is, for example, an unraveling of the West Bank, you could see...
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one of these sorts of events that everyone gets drawn like a magnet to the Middle East, and you end up with a major global conflict that becomes a problem for markets, it becomes a problem for the world, and that could be the catalyzing event that I don't think any of us wanna see. To use your logic from before,
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The thing that may plunge the world into having to have a point of view on this may actually be a political calculus that Netanyahu has to engage in, which is around keeping small factions of his coalition government in place, which may not actually represent the full view of the Israeli people. That's what's even more tragic.
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So it's not obviously the Palestinians don't want it, but many Israelis may not want it either. And there may be no avenue if he wants to remain in power. And that's what's so scary.
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And by the way, there's no such thing as a regional war in the Middle East, because every one of those countries has significant allies in Russia, in the United States, in China. What is Saudi Arabia going to do? You know, Jordan is going to end up in a situation where they may end up having to defend the Palestinians and the West Bank, which puts them across the shooting field from the Israelis.
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And the United States is an ally to both Israel and Jordan. What are we going to end up doing? And that's why this whole situation is not just about a regional conflict. It actually draws the whole world back to the Middle East.
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This is why the counterfactual of what could have happened on October 8th is so important, because that would have been UAE, United States, Saudi, and Israel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, just those four. And let's put Qatar in the mix as well. But my point is like, my gosh, like that, it could have rewritten world history in such a profound way. It would have just taken some restraint and proportionality. Turn the cheek the other way, kind of.
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But not just this attack, like under attack for generations in a region that has been all about conflict and secularity and all of the kind of, you know, identity drivers that make this so deeply personal and rooted in history, not just in a moment or an event.
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Yeah. Well, look, let's move on. I'm not trying to judge anyone's behavior. I'm just trying to shine a light on the strength of Israel's capacity and what that may mean for their proclivity for escalatory behavior, which is really scary given that this is not just a regional issue. It becomes a global issue when it does happen. Sorry, go ahead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I thought you were going somewhere else with it, which is I was just going to say in any other simulation, the capability of the Mossad is fodder for incredible movies. Like it's out of a movie. Right. You read these articles and they just don't seem like they're real. Incredible. It's like, what do you mean you smuggled a bomb into the safe house in Iran where all the VIPs stay? Two months ago.
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Two months ago. Two months ago. How does that happen? What does it mean that you actually developed... Yeah, then sit tight. What does it mean that you developed a virus that you were able to get into the actual working computers of the Iranian nuclear complex?
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The control units, by the way, the control units. Yeah, the control boards of the equipment made by Siemens, of the equipment made by Siemens that was shipped to Iran.
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That's not like you tell that into something. You know what I mean? That means that there was a person physically there that then found a way to essentially get this firmware implanted. And it's like, this is insane.
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No, you know what happened? I remember the story. They actually did not. What happened was they let the virus circulate in the world for years before someone randomly had it on a USB drive that didn't know they had it, randomly plugged it into a computer in the center of each facility, then it infected, sent out a notice, I'm in here.
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And then after years, it was finally in there through the random movement of this virus that no one, isn't that incredible? Anyway, yeah.
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Timoth, what do you think about the Harris campaign, how it's going and the momentum that is being projected in the media and the polling data is clearly demonstrating an improvement over Biden's standings in the polls?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All right. So political pitch in from David Sachs. We don't have Jake out here to give the other side, but let's keep going. So Bill Ackman's withdrawn his plans to IPO Pershing Square. You know, Chamath, do you want to just give us kind of the background on what he was trying to do? And obviously, this was an attempted $25 billion raise as an IPO.
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He recently reduced the raise target to $2 billion. And when the order book came in, I believe at less than a billion, he scrapped the plans entirely and just announced yesterday that he's pulling the IPO. So can you just explain a little bit about what this IPO was? And then we'll talk a little bit about why we think it fell apart.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I can only repeat what I read, but I'll try to kind of like translate it into non-Wall Street speak. So basically, he has a company. But what that company does is it gets investors to give it slash him money. And then they invest it in all kinds of things that they deem worthwhile. It could be bonds. It could be stocks. It could be currencies. It could be derivatives. They generate a return.
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And then they give those returns back to their investors. So that is a hedge fund. The holy grail has always been trying to figure out how can an organization that is- Those funds are raised and distributed back, right?
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I mean, I think you should- Exactly. I don't want to interrupt, but yeah. But just go ahead and say that, yeah.
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But the holy grail for someone who runs those businesses is when they realize, well, listen, I get paid a great profit share from those funds when I'm successful. I'm also allowed to take a 2% per year management fee. But I believe I'm building equity. And can I get somebody else to recognize the fact that I'm building equity? And that's no different than a startup, right?
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I mean, I think we had a situation where one candidate was not real. And so Sachs is right that a lot of the polling up until basically last week is not really reliable. Now you have this snapback effect which is more about a lot of people that were coming around to this idea of voting for Trump because Biden was such a bad option, now flip-flopping.
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So, you know, Freeberg, you're building Ohalo. You believe that you're building all kinds of really interesting things rooted in science. And you want other people to judge the value of that as measured by your equity, right? Independent of your revenues and profits today, they want to project in the future, right?
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The problem is that hedge funds have not found a very elegant way to demonstrate that they have any equity value. And there's only been a few, and the formula has been the same. So companies like Blackstone, companies like KKR, companies like Apollo, what have they proven? They've proven that they can raise enormous amounts of money.
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So most of these organizations now are approaching a trillion dollars of capital raised. And they tell investors, well, look, don't worry about the returns anymore. Worry about the 2% because that's like our revenue. And we're generating $20 billion a year of revenue that'll grow at some rateable proportion. We'll manage the teams. We'll compensate them well. But there'll be lots of profitability.
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And people have bought that story. So I think a lot of smaller organizations who aspire to be like a Blackstone or an Apollo have tried to get people to buy into this story. And I think what Bill Ackman was trying to do was some version of that, which is to say, I'm going to build an enterprise here. Pershing Square is going to be a standalone business. It's going to have enterprise value.
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And you're going to measure that based on the assets that I manage. And it's going to be much greater than what I managed today. And I think he manages roughly $10 billion today. But he thought he was going to raise another $25 in this IPO and then in very short order be at $50 billion. And so... He got people to invest in that business on that premise.
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And I think folks put in around a billion dollars and they valued that entity at 10 billion. And so he tried to go and raise his fund. He thought it was going to be 25. And it turned out, I thought it was two, but Freebird, you just said it's less than one. I didn't, I guess, or around one. I just heard that. I'm just hearing that from you for the first time. So I guess what is the takeaway?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Chamath, real quick, this was a closed-end fund he was trying to raise. No, but I think he's also said that Pershing Square eventually has a path to go public. That's how he sold the billion of equity at $10 billion in the master LP. Yeah, but this IPO was just for a fund. No, no, I know. It was the IPO of the fund, and then they were planning afterwards the IPO.
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They were planning afterwards, yes, which he didn't do. My only point was that the fund was basically launching a fund, and then the goal is not the fund itself. The goal is to buttress the underlying logic to take the whole thing public, the manager. Okay. And that's what I mean by taking a company public in finance is next to impossible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The whole point is, what are these businesses in the business of doing? They're in the business of making bets. The problem is that those bets are short-term anomalous events. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't work. The problem with that is that investors who are trying to underwrite 20 or 30 years of returns don't know how that's predictable over that period of time.
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For example, you're genetically engineering all kinds of produce that we are going to ingest. If that stuff works at scale, you will have built an enterprise that theoretically has the potential, unless it's disrupted by something else, to make revenue for 20 or 30 years. So people can underwrite that. Google makes a search engine. It's going to last for 20 or 30 years.
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Facebook makes a social network. It can last for 20 or 30 years. The business of making bets is typically something that can only be measured in days or weeks, maybe months at best. And so I think what he ran into was that realization. It's very hard to get people to value an institution in this way. And so the thing did not work. He'll go back and he'll retool.
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The thing that I give Bill Ackman an enormous amount of credit for is he is one of the most resilient individuals I've ever seen in high finance, but generally as a business person. This guy has, he surfed some really big waves. He's landed some really good sets. He's also gotten crushed a few times and the guy just keeps coming back and he seems to be getting more and more refined and capable of
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as a business person. So, you know, he'll probably figure out a way. This is not the first time he's publicly dealt with things that have not worked. But I think it just goes to show you that in finance, these entities that try to sell a piece of the quote-unquote general partner as a company, I just think that it's, frankly, that it doesn't work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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SACs, some reports indicate that investors pulled out of the Pershing Square IPO because of the current market conditions that a lot of market indices have stormed higher and that there is now less upside and it's not a great time to be entering the equity markets. Other reports indicate that investors lost interest in Ackman's fund
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so I think that's what explains the snapback. But Sachs is right. 100 days is a really long time. And what Nate Silver's poll essentially shows is if she wants to win, not the popular vote, because at this point now, three or four elections in a row, that just doesn't matter anymore. If you want to win the electoral college and be the president, you got to go and win five states.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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because of his activity on x or twitter have you um do you have a point of view do you think that folks pulled out investors have pulled out you're obviously a fund manager who is very active and opinionated on x and y sweater like what you know do you think has this affected your relationship with with raising capital if you're willing to talk about it or maybe just comment on the acmen you know issue that he ran into why did this fail
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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give a point of view on investors having an issue with Ackman because of his outspokenness on various social and political issues over... I can't imagine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'll be honest, guys. I don't think so. Investors care about making money. And Bill Ackman's a moneymaker. Like, that's undeniable. The guy... takes some losses, but his wins are way bigger than his losses. And he is a proven moneymaker. The problem is that I think the way in which he was trying to monetize the business is just a hard thing to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You have to have an organization of hundreds approaching thousands of people that are raising all manner of funds. And those funds just deliver very consistent returns, not great, but they never lose money. And that's how you get towards a trillion dollars. And that's how you make it a company and not a great hedge fund.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Some people would disagree. They think he's had a lot of comments on wokeism, as he would call it, and DEI topics. And I agree with him on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The point is more about like what we talked about earlier, which is kind of having an authentic voice and speaking what you believe and speaking what your opinion is versus remaining buttoned up and not speaking what you believe and toeing the line.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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He's in the only industry where his performance is measurable every day in precision. So what I would say is it's irrelevant what he says on Twitter. meaning the quality of his decisions are independent of what he says because they're measurable and they are not something you can gain.
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And the reality is that over the last few years, particularly starting in COVID, he has gotten better and better and he's played a very good hand. I think he's an exceptional risk manager and he's timed it. And so the people that say that to you, to be very honest, they're portraying their lack of financial sophistication.
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And it creates ambiguity. Exactly.
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Huge positive. And I think that the part of his business that he hasn't gone back to, which if he does in this chapter of his career with the following that he has... is the activism part. And I think there are two people who I think are incredible at this and where both the written and the spoken word, they have such a mastery of Ackman is one Dan Loeb is the other.
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And I think that, you know, in this world where you have the ability to go direct in a way that you've never had before is actually the realm of, um, a different form of activism that I think could be extremely economically rewarding. and valuable in society.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And in order to do that, you have to be very precise on about four or five specific issues. And in the absence of her defining herself on those four or five issues, she's not going to win. She'll win the popular vote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All right, gentlemen, this has been a great episode of the All In Pod. We missed our comedian in residence, Jason Calacanis, Nostracanis, nostril anus. We miss him. We wish him well, speedy recovery. This has been an episode without the usual humor and flamboyancy that we've all come to know and love. But I think it was great to chat this afternoon and we will see you all next week. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
But again, when people win the popular vote and lose the electoral college, we've now gone through that enough times where that's just the fait accompli inside of American electoral politics. So I think that the Trump campaign and the Harris campaign need to agree on some schedule of debates.
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I hope that they do two and ideally three and that they both get after it in front of each other so that those five states that are really going to decide this election has an opportunity to make a decision on behalf of the rest of the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, Nick, if you pull that chart back up again, based on Nate Silver's model of polls, where he takes all the polling data that's been collected by different third parties, he weights them based on the performance of those polls in terms of predictive power historically, and he creates this kind of macro model. That's the Nate Silver approach here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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he's estimating that within the 80% bound, every state on this list is up for grabs, as you can see with the gray lines shown there. There's a very slight margin on the average in Wisconsin for Trump, in Michigan for Harris, in Pennsylvania for Trump. in Nevada for Trump, in North Carolina for Trump, in Virginia for Harris, and so on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But each of those margins is so slim that there's still quite a lot of decision-making ahead for voters. So pretty clearly on point that this is still very much an open election. I'll give you guys my read. I think that there's five camps of voters going into this when Biden was a candidate. The first is anti-Biden, anything but Biden. The second is anything but Trump. The third is pro Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The fourth is pro Trump. And then the fifth is the other. And I think that that entire bucket of anything but Biden just became available once Biden dropped out of the race. And it was a pretty sizable bucket that there's a large number of voters out there that felt pretty strongly that Biden poses such a significant risk for leadership in this country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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because of the mental issues and the performance issues that we had seen that as much as people didn't love Trump, they were willing to vote for him because he's not Biden. And now that camp has an option and that option is Harris. So some percentage of that camp, and I would say probably a super majority of that camp is now switching into the Harris bucket The pro-Trump bucket doesn't move.
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The pro-Biden bucket probably doesn't move. It sticks with Harris. And the anything but Trump bucket doesn't move. It sticks with Harris. So, you know, the fact that there is probably such a sizable number of voters in the anything but Biden camp is what's probably helping Harris at this point and creates a bit of a handicap for Trump going into this last stretch of the campaign. That's my read.
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Obviously, Harris came out, guns a-blazing in the media. The accolades seem to be flying. And the polling data is starting to become worrisome, it seems, for the Republicans. Just this week, Nate Silver released his newest model update, the Silver Bulletin. I think he's got it trademarked as nowadays.
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Because I know a lot of people with that point of view.
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National Association of Black Journalists.
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I would disagree on this because I think in the last two weeks, what I've seen is statements coming out of the Harris camp that clearly distinguish her and her campaign from Biden's policy positions and Biden's campaign rhetoric historically. Most particularly, Sachs is on Israel.
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When Netanyahu came to visit the United States, she put out a very pro-Israel statement that we all know the Biden camp has largely avoided doing because of the concern over the pro-Palestinian rights movement's reaction to the Biden camp being pro-Israel. And the Harris statement was pretty finely worded and pretty strongly worded that she is very much in favor of Israel defending itself.
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She acknowledged that there is a loss of Palestinian life that matters and we need to acknowledge and address it. But she was very much in support of Israel, which is not a position we've seen the Biden camp take.
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And I think that we're starting to see what is a little bit more of a fracturing between Harris being allowed to be free and being allowed to have an opinion outside of the party line dictated by the Biden camp. And I think we'll probably see more of that in the next couple of weeks.
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And we'll probably see her starting to be a little bit more refined in what that what differentiates her from Biden, because I do think that's what's going to allow her to win this election. And she's going to stand up and say, here's why I am not Joe Biden. And here's what makes me different from that individual. I respect him. I love him. He helped me.
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But let me tell you why I'm why I'm different and why that should matter.
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I think you're an example of the people that want to give her the benefit of the doubt. Okay. I think there's a large faction of those people.
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That's not true. No, that's not a fair way to characterize me at all. I'm simply pointing out that she made a statement. I'm pointing out that she made a statement that's different than what Biden said. That's it. That's all I'm saying.
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And in the model, he tries to estimate what does the polling data show us with respect to the Electoral College elections? and the popular vote in the upcoming presidential election. Harris currently has a 42.5% probability of winning the electoral college, Trump 56.9%, Kennedy coming in at 0%.
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I do think that what you're saying is exactly what she needs to answer to in public in the next couple of weeks to earn credibility on what is she different from the Biden administration on in terms of policy? And why did she not make that clear when she was in the Biden administration? And she can say, I didn't agree with it. Or she can say, I've changed my mind.
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And I think both of those might end up being where she needs to go to. But you're right, she does need to answer to that. I don't think it's clear she has to do any of that.