Chamath Palihapitiya
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Back in 2003, when JD graduated from high school, this was after the Twin Towers had come down and we had gotten involved in the Iraq War, he was gung-ho to go fight America's enemies, and he enlisted in the Marine Corps. and went off to serve in the Middle East, eventually he came to realize that that war was a mistake.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Let me... go in a different direction. Just in the last couple of days, Dick Cheney endorsed Kamala Harris for president. And that endorsement was warmly embraced by Kamala Harris and the Democrats. The same people called him a war criminal like three years ago. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Well, yeah, I'm old enough to remember back in 2008, Obama first beat Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary because he had opposed the Iraq War and she had supported it. And then he got elected president of the United States. And the whole country seemed to recognize that the Iraq War had been a disaster. It destabilized the Middle East.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
You know, I don't need to go through all the litanies of horribles that happened from it. But there seems to be a widespread recognition. And like you're saying, Dick Cheney was kind of demonized as this... like the Darth Vader, Prince of Darkness type figure, which I think basically was right. I mean, he was the principal architect of the Iraq war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
On a separate track, a few weeks ago, we had Bobby Kennedy endorse Donald Trump. So you now have a dynamic where the Bush Republicans are now Harris Democrats and the Kennedy Democrats are now Trump Republicans. Clearly, Something big is happening in our politics here. Can you explain this realignment? How do you see it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And I thought that that really represents one of the traits that we really want in a vice president or someone next to the president, which is that he had the patriotism and the courage to go serve America, but also the wisdom to realize when America shouldn't get involved in a war. So I want to just...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
The other, like I said, almost contradiction that JD represents is that he had worked in the tech industry. He had been a venture capitalist. He had been in rooms like this and he understands what it takes to make America a more innovative place. At the same time, he comes from a part of the Midwest, Appalachia.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
That's a very poor part of the country and did not grow up in a privileged environment at all. And he still remembers those people and he represents those people. And I think his ability to understand both parts of the country makes him, I'd say, a pretty unique political figure. So with that, let me stop. And do you want to react to any of that? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah, well, I want to wrap this up because I think we're basically out of time by just observing that both Donald Trump and J.D. Vance have been on this podcast. And it's not because I'm a crazy right winger. It's because we invited them. Not just because. Not just because. It's because we invited them and they accepted. We have similarly invited Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
So we're still waiting. He said yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
So we want to be on this call. Yeah. We want to re extend the invitation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
To both Kamala Harris and Tim Waltz. You're welcome to come on the podcast anytime. And the format will be similar.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
I think you've had like three follow-ups on J6. First of all, Freeberg, you never got a chance to ask your question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Well, do we actually need a big introduction here? But I'll give a few.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
So they'll have fun. I'll say a couple of things about JD because he's a friend. I think what I think really made me want to support JD for Senate and also for the VP position. is that I think he represents two, you could almost say, contradictions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Give or take a billion?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
When we were watching you work, David and I and Antonio, in that first month at Twitter, which was all hands on deck, and you were doing zero-based budgeting, you really quickly got the cost under control. And then miraculously, everybody said, this site will go down and you added 50 more features.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
It's really... It's the most miserable place on Earth. Disney's the happiest. This is the anti-Disney. But if we were to go into government, you went into the Department of Education, or pick the department. You've worked with a lot of them, actually. You can't go in there and say, okay, we get it. But...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
If you could just pair two, three, four, 5% of those organizations, what kind of impact would that have?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Ideally, but compounding every year, two or 3% a year, I mean, it would be better than what's happening now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Are they climbing the wall to get out or come in?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Well, in four years, if you could shrink the size of the government with Trump, what would be a good target? Just in terms of like ballpark.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah. On me. So we'll keep the post office.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I was saying low digits every year for four years would be palatable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
You've talked to him about it, yeah?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
That stamp is really hard. Approved.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah. And do you think you might have to move it to a different jurisdiction to move faster?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah, interesting. And if we don't do it, other countries could do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I mean, they're so far behind us, but theoretically, there's a national security, you know, justification here if somebody can put their thinking caps on, like, do we want to have this technology that you're building, the team's working so hard on, stolen by other countries, and then, you know, maybe they don't have as much red tape.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
How's the Optimus project going? I remember when you talked last, and you said this publicly, that it's in doing some light testing inside the factory. Yeah. So it's actually being useful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
What's the build of materials and when, you know, for something like that at scale, so when you start making it like you're making the Model 3 now and there's a million of them coming off the factory line, what would they cost? $20,000, $30,000, $40,000, you think? Yeah, I mean, I've discovered really that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah, and that's a decade-long journey, maybe?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
So you're in year two of that, if you did two or three years per iteration or something, it's a decade-long journey for this to hit some sort of scale.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And at that price point, everybody can afford one on planet Earth. I mean, it's going to be that one-to-one, two-to-one. What do you think, ultimately, if we're sitting here in 30 years, the number of robots on the planet versus humans?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I think everybody talks about all the projects you're working on, but people don't know you have a great sense of humor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Oh, you do. You do. People don't see it, but I would say, I know for me, the funniest week of my life, or one of the funniest, was when you did SNL, and I got to tag along. Maybe you saw it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Maybe behind the scenes, some of your funniest recollections of that chaotic, insane week when we laughed for 12 hours a day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
We should just give him one or two. In your mind, which one do we regret most? Not getting on air.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I mean, it was a little spicy. It was a little funny.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
It's been a lie all these years. All these years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And this, we're pitching this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
We have a joke going that he's Butters and I'm Cartman.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
They're watching this, and on the Zoom, they're aghast at Eli's pitch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And then Elon explains the punchline, which is... Yes, exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And I pitch. I'm like, and then Kate McKinnon walks out. Yeah, exactly. And I'm like, oh no, but you haven't heard half of it. So Kate McKinnon comes out and she says, Elon, I expected you would have a bigger cock.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And then Eli says, I'm really enjoying shrugging your pussy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
They're looking at us like, oh my God, what have we done inviting these lunatics on the program?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
It's Mother's Day. We might not want to go with this one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
So, yeah. Yeah, that was... That's the cold open that didn't make it. We didn't get that on the air. But we did fight for Doge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And we got Doge on the air.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And so Elon wanted to do Doge. This is the other one. And he wanted to do Doge on late night. And he says, hey, J. Cal, can you make sure?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
You bring me on my daughter's wedding.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I'm a bit concerned, as your friend, that you're going to go to one of these countries and I'm going to wake up one day and you're going to get arrested and I'm going to have to go bail you out or something. This feels very acute.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
They had great potential. So they come to me and I'm talking to Colin and Joe, who's got a great sense of humor and he's amazing, he loves Elon. And he's like, we can't do it because of the law and stuff like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
The law and liability. So I said, it's okay. Elon called Comcast and he put in an offer and they just accepted it. He just bought NBC, so it's fine. Yeah. And Colin Jost looks at me, so good, and he's like, you're serious? I'm like, yep, we own NBC now. And he's like, okay, well, that kind of changes things, doesn't it? I'm like, absolutely, we're a go on Doge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And then he's like, you're fucking with me. And I'm like, I'm fucking with you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Or are we? It was the greatest week of, and that is like two of 10 stories.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
But it was, and I was just so happy for you to see you have a great week of just joy and fun and letting go, because you were launching rockets, you're dealing with so much bullshit in your life, to have those moments, to share them and just laugh, it was just so great. And more of those moments. I think we gotta get you back on SNL. Who wants him back on SNL one more time?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
All right, ladies and gentlemen, our bestie, Elon Musk.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I mean, it's not a joke now. Like, they're literally saying, like, you know, it's not just Biden saying, like, we have to look into that guy. Now it's become quite literal. Like, this, I don't know, who was the guy who just wrote the, was it the Guardian piece about, like?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
What are they protecting, exactly?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
But the premise here is that you bought this thing, this online forum, this communication platform, and you're allowing people to use it to express themselves, therefore you have to be jailed. I don't understand the logic here. What do you think they're actually afraid of at this point? What's the motivation here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
How are you doing, brother? You keeping busy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Right, and some of these European... That's it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
It's pretty straightforward.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Also very straightforward.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I mean, there are European countries that don't want people to promote Nazi propaganda.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
They have some sensitivity to it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
In those countries, if somebody puts that up, you take it down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
But they typically file something and say, take this down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
It's definitely a simulation. We've agreed on this at this point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
We'll have teleportation by that time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yes, the ratings are high. How are the freedom of speech wars going? This is a, you've been at war for two years now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I mean that's the, That's the confounding part here, is we're acting against our own self-interest. You know, when you look at, we do have to make, putting aside fresh water, but hey, you know, the rocket makes a lot of noise.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
So I'm certain there's some complaints about noise once in a while, but sometimes you want to have a party, or you want to make progress, and there's a little bit of noise, therefore, you know, we trade off a little bit of noise for massive progress, or even fun.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
When did we stop being able to make those trade-offs? But talk about the difference between California and Texas, where you and I now reside. Texas, you were able to build the Gigafactory. I remember when you got the plot of land. It seemed like it was less than two years when you had the party to open it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
The price of freedom of speech is not cheap, is it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Is there anywhere on the planet that would go faster? Is like China faster than that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Got it. So Texas, China, 11 and 14 months. California, how many months?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Which was the biggest building in America?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah, or it was the biggest at the time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Okay, three Pentagons and counting. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let me let me ask you a question. So if they if they end up facing the terminal nature of this, which is if we don't put someone in that can win, we lose. We are not going to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let's assume let's assume that they take a read of the polls. They take a read of the nation. They actually do a real look at the circumstances on the ground, which is that she is not going to win. If they looked at that and they said, you know what? We need to win. And some sense comes into the head of the leaders of the Democratic Party. And they say, who can win?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And a person like Jamie Dimon polls that he can win. There is a chance, I think, that maybe they say, this is how we're going to get back to the White House.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think it's a really good point. What we'll see – is just how rational the Democratic Party leadership is. Are they going to continue to play based on insider first principles, or will they actually take a first principles point of view on how do we win the election? And I think it will be very revealing about how the leaders of the Democratic Party think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
based on the decision they make and their donors. Well, I don't know if that's true, because I actually think that there's a risk that donors are fleeing the ship, right? Yeah, there's a rift between the donor class and the Democratic Party leadership, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And by the way, sacks, what you're saying is probably right. But I think it could actually end up being a signal that there might be a change in how the who the donors end up supporting the next go around for to realize this leadership change in the Democratic Party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let your winners ride. Rain Man, David Sackett.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Great. How are you? You look so relaxed. Look at you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
We're definitely going to be talking about the changing landscape of American politics. So we are going to have some representation there to have that conversation. We're going to be talking about the future of media. We're going to be doing some really cool technology deep dives in areas like robotics, age reversal, eVTOLs, and talking a lot about AI meets enterprise software.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
My advice to the Democrats is to embrace an outsider. Give the people what they want. Freedom of choice. Freedom to elect a leader and bring someone in that falls outside of the traditional political spectrum that does not want to hold public office because it's not their career. They can bring money to the table.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
They can bring credibility to the table and they can win votes and compete effectively against Trump. If your goal is to retain the White House, Kamala or Joseph Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Jamie Dimon. Jamie Dimon. Bob Iger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You know what you're doing right now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I'm not speaking about realism. I'm speaking about what it would take to win. If they actually want to have a shot at winning, someone that could win a popular vote, someone that could actually win votes away from Trump, because you can't introduce someone like Whitmer or Moore this late in the season when no one in the United States knows who the heck this person is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
When you have someone with credibility, with economic and business success, with executive authority, with capital and connections into the Democratic Party, but isn't part of the political machine that you and many others in the Democratic Party are now starting to hate. Let's go have an opportunity to actually win. Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And if they were smart and they got their shit together, they would say, you know what? It's time for a change. Just like the Republicans had to do when Trump stepped into the party. Bingo.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So we have a number of... the leading enterprise software CEOs joining us for conversations on that front. So it's shaping up to be really amazing programming. Like Jason said, we held back 400 tickets from the initial batch and we're going to release 100 this week. So put an application in, we're trying to be selective and it's going to be amazing. The parties are going to be awesome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So I'm really excited how it's coming together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The first night of the summit, we've rented out a bunch of great restaurants around town in LA, and we're putting people together for dinner at all these different restaurants. And then the parties are nights two and three. which are going to be, you know, beautifully done. It's going to be great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, so I've said for a long time, we've obviously had conversations about Twitter and shadow banning and some of the other activities on what are typically called social media platforms. At the end of the day, these are all, as I've shared in the past, my belief is they're all content companies. They have a choice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
as executives and editors of those companies to decide how to editorialize the content on their platforms. They can choose to create content with writers that they pay on staff, like a newspaper might. They can choose to create content with actors and directors that they pay to create novel
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
video series for them like HBO might, or they can choose to make content creation available to third parties that don't get paid like users. And at the end of the day, what they choose to do with that content and how they choose to display that content is up to them as an editorial platform that is ultimately creating content for other consumers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I don't view that user-generated content platforms are a right of the consumers to have access to share their thoughts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
They have the internet to do that, and they have many other places that they can go to, to create blogs, to create websites, to do whatever else they wanna do to express themselves, but to have a technological platform that lets them submit content, that then the editors get to decide how and where they show that content,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think they should understand because it's in the terms and conditions when you sign up. So I don't believe in social media platforms as utilities. And I don't think that the government should have any role in deciding what is or isn't on those platforms. This goes both ways.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think that the company should decide what kind of platforms they wanna have, whether they wanna have free speech that allows inappropriate content, or content that might be offensive, or whether they want to have a highly moderated platform to make it more broadly available or appealing to users, it's entirely up to them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I really do appreciate the ruling, because I think that the government should have less of a role in intervening and deciding how media companies create content and how they editorialize that content.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Everyone comes to the dinners, everything. Yeah, it's going to be great. So we're trying to create more space for people to meet each other. I know that's been a big thing in the past in the meetups and at the summit is people love meeting other folks in the community. So yeah, smaller groups.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
What else is striking is just how insular and protectionist Texas and Florida are being. And it's not just with this law, it's also with the lab-grown meat or cultivated meat laws that they've passed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And other states are passing similar laws, which is limiting innovation in the state and limiting freedom to operate in the state in order to protect interests of individuals and corporations that already exist within that state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So it's really important to note, this isn't a good or a bad thing, but those states are operating in a way, the lawmakers of those states are operating in a way that's trying to protect the interests of the individuals and businesses in the state over the freedoms and the liberties that might otherwise be available.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I think we often talk about these states being more free, but these laws and the cultivated meat ban laws, in my opinion, indicate that these states are actually on the contrary. They're much more kind of protectionist. Where's your take on that, Sax?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You can expect a couple hundred depending on the location. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
It's at summit.allinpodcast.com.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I don't know how much experience you guys have had dealing with
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
federal regulators you have a lot more than i think agencies yeah and i yeah i've worked in a lot across a number of federal agencies in in businesses i've been involved in and i can tell you it is as i'm sure you would expect there's a lot of bureaucratic morass in in these agencies and if you think about it it's because the agencies are effectively under the chevron doctrine vested
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
unlimited authority to create rules and regulations that they then determine are meant to represent the laws that were passed by Congress. But more often than not, those rules and regulations begin to bleed outside of the lines of the intention of the laws when they were passed. And this is because those agencies, by creating new rules and regulations, this isn't some like
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
you know, I have a subversive reason for doing this, but these agencies have an incentive for creating more rules and regulations because they then get to go back to Congress and ask for more budget and hire more people and grow the importance and the scale of their agency. This is the natural kind of organic growth that arises in any living system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And any organization of individuals is also a living system and has the same incentive. It wants to have more resources. It wants to get bigger. It wants to do more stuff. It wants to be more important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And the Chevron doctrine has allowed agencies to operate independent and outside of the lines that were defined in the laws that were passed that then vested them this authority that then they can go and say, I want more budget. I want to get bigger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I'm optimistic that this ruling will limit the agency's authorities and limit their ability to create more bureaucratic overhead, more headcount, more individuals that need to now go and administer the rules and regulations that they themselves create. And so I'm actually very optimistic and hopeful about this change. Now, the downside, the negative to this,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
is that there are a number of really important regulatory roles that agencies have come to play that never got passed as bills, like environmental protection rules. And there's a negative consequence that will arise to some degree with respect to health of the environment, health of people, et cetera. But I think net-net, Congress needs to do its job. It needs to go back
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
to session and it needs to sit down and needs to pass laws that really clearly define what is and what isn't going to be legal going forward. And then the agencies operate strictly within those bounds.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Vlad from Robin Hood. He's the guy who did it. Vlad from Robin Hood. Shout out to Vlad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I feel like I've become a conservative. Maybe I'm a conservative now, Sax. I don't know. I may have to sit down and confess to you because I read a number of these decisions and I was like, I agree. I agree. And this is supposed to be a conservative court. So I'm not sure. Well, it's actually, it's not, it's not an originalist court.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I made it last. I'll counter the Rick's Cabaret recession indicator as valid anymore based on the theory of our good friend on the group chat, who I think has done a very good job highlighting that the strip club industry has been decimated by OnlyFans. As a result, Rick's Cabaret is more likely down because of OnlyFans and the lack of...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
shall we say, employee base available to work in these establishments because they make more money working online at OnlyFans now. That was a theory posited by one of our good friends.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, OnlyFans took all the entertainers out of the strip club industry because they make more money online.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The cabaret industry. I'm sorry. Please edit that, Nick. And as a result, the quality of the product at the cabaret business has declined. And as a result, revenue has declined. And it took a little bit of time to earn that in. So the virtual cabaret industry. That's our friend's theory. We give him a big shout out. We will. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Didn't you ever watch The Office? I don't watch The Office. Oh my God, JTAL, what is wrong with you? You would love The Office. I never got into it. I've probably watched it like four times.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think that the distinction between acting in their favor executive capacity as president of the United States versus their personal capacity as an individual candidate or an individual that could benefit some other means is a really good distinction. I think how the courts ultimately adjudicate that distinction is what's still ahead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
But I do think that the clarity of that distinction is critical. It seems like the right thing, how this is going to play out with respect to election interference. Does interfering in the election constitute one's role as an executive overseeing the federal election process?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Or does it constitute one's personal benefits that may arise if one is individually elected as the key determinant that the lower court will likely have to make? Maybe that gets kicked back up again in the future if there's a disagreement over the decision that the court does make with regards to that distinction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
After we record the show, before we publish, it's going to be a whole.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Biden just went on a campaign call and he said, let me say this as clearly as I possibly can, as simply and straightforward as I can. I am running. No one's pushing me out. I'm not leaving. I'm in this race to the end and we're going to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
But think about it. Think about the strategy. If you're the Democratic Party leaders and you are evaluating who to choose to replace Biden, the first thing you do is you have to double down on Biden. Because if you were neutral to negative on Biden or passive, it's immediately interpreted as he's being swapped out and then you don't have time to pick the right candidate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
In order to have the time to pick the right candidate, you have to first double down on Biden, be really declarative that he's our candidate, put him on media, put him on talk shows while you were figuring out who's gonna replace him and what the strategy is to get that person to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
There's a chance that what's actually going on is a little bit more of a structured strategy around find the right candidate, set up the right program to get them elected, figure out how we're going to move the $120 million that we raised from Biden over to whoever this new candidate is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So you've got to put together a real plan. You can't just do the hot swap. You've got to have a plan for the hot swap, which means in the meantime, you've got to buy time. And the best way to buy time is throw Biden forward and be like, hey, look, this guy's going to go do media.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
There's a political party. I mean, you can interpret it as you wish.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
If you run a debate, it shows it shows weakness as The party needs to select a leader and they need to say, this is our candidate. Because if they do this, it's too diffuse. It weakens whoever ends up winning. It strengthens the party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let me ask you a question. If Jamie Dimon declared that he's going to he would be happy to take on the candidacy for the Democratic Party. He would call his friend, Warren Buffett. He would call his friend, Jeff Bezos. He would call up his own personal banker and say, we've got half a billion, let's go. And let's have a run at this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
There are certain folks that are outside of the typical political spectrum that might actually have a shot at doing the extraordinary here and stepping up and doing exactly what Trump and others that support Trump don't want to see happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
which is a candidate that can actually challenge Trump on the merits of their experience, on their values, on their capabilities as leaders, as executives, and on their past performance. And I think that someone like that might be the strategist's kind of move to say, this is the one thing we can do that can defeat Trump, because we all know from the polling that Harris doesn't stand a shot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
But here's why. Bloomberg ran against other Democrats. This is a person that is running against another billionaire, which is Trump. And so if you have two people who are now on equal footing and it is the Trump versus the non-Trump billionaire, a lot of people in this country, I suspect, Let them cook. Go for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let me ask you a question. This is what Trump did, right? Yes, but Trump came in and he rewrote the rules of the party by running. You're right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Just to finish this up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Hold on. Okay, so there's two things there. So just on the 2020 riots, I don't know how you blame Trump for the BLM riots of summer of 2020.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I get you don't like the mean tweets. It's not about mean tweets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And when you have people whose lives are at stake— I think it's far worse to actually have riots going on in the streets. That's what needed to be controlled. How many people— Hold on. He wanted to send in the National Guard to Minnesota. It was actually Waltz who rejected the National Guard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And there were plenty of ties between Democratic activists and the BLM organizers of those riots. Time magazine did a story on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
But I can't believe they're using the riots throughout the summer of 2020 as an argument against Trump when it was the left.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Let's go back to the foreign policy for a second. Trump is correct that he did not start any new wars during his presidency. You agree with that, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
That no new war started or he didn't start any? He didn't start any. He was like the first president in 20 years not to start a new war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He inherited Syria and Afghanistan and he wanted to get out and the generals didn't let him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
That's his argument is that he did not start any new wars. Has Biden started any wars? Well, I would argue that Biden provoked the proxy war in Ukraine, yes. I mean, you can disagree whether he provoked or not, but there's no question the U.S. has been deeply involved in a war with Russia in Ukraine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yeah. OK, well, look, we did we did support we did support the Saudis in their war with with with Yemen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're saying that somehow Trump caused the inflation?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
First of all, by the way, the war in Yemen started on March 26, 2015, according to ChatGPT, which is under Obama. So that started under Obama.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And he there was a record of the fact that we had nine percent inflation in twenty twenty two. So two years after Trump was office in the world, is Trump responsible for that and not Biden?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Wait, wait, wait. Sorry. Okay, so this is very hard to... Hold on a second. This is very hard to fact check in real time because I've never heard this theory before. Hold on a second. We can have a theory on the pod. Let's have Freeberg get involved. Freeberg hasn't asked a question yet, so let me try to... The point is that... you know, this is like totally novel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't even think I've heard you make this theory on X before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're just going to let him basically cite this nonsense and I don't get to interrogate it a little bit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay, what about the fact that Biden's first day in office, he cancels the Keystone pipeline and a bunch of leases. He makes it harder to drill in the United States. So he reduces the ability for domestic producers to produce. You don't think that that would have an impact?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The question is in proportionality. Do you think Larry Summers was wrong when... Q1, the first quarter of the Biden-Harris administration, Larry Summers warned that if you pass another $2 trillion of COVID stimulus, like they were planning to do, that could set off inflation, that we were on the brink. He said that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Kamala Harris cast the tie-breaking vote for that Inflation Explosion Act, otherwise known as the American Rescue Plan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The cause of this massive 20% inflation we've had over Biden's four years is a secret deal between Trump and MBS and like Putin's in there somewhere. You can dismiss it all you want, David.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're ready to go. All right. Let's go. I think we're going to have twice the virtue signaling as normal in this episode.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
It's all fun for money. Hold on. The supply chain was constrained during COVID and it was healing. It was getting better. And then they pumped all the stimulus in and everyone got these semi-checks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yeah. You've acknowledged that Kamala's unrealized gains tax is a disaster.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
It was in the last Biden-Harris budget. It was in the Harris platform at the DNC.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
They did a search replace on his name and put her name in there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You know, you're saying you're saying it's analogous. The Republicans have an open primary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
DeSantis competed. But he didn't participate. Nikki Haley competed. They had an open primary. Hold on a second. Trump was 50 points ahead. Maybe he should have debated. I don't know. Maybe. No, I mean, look, I would have been in favor of him debating. But he was 50 points ahead and everybody had a chance to run.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The Democrats pretended that Joe Biden was just fine, that he was sharp as a tack, that he was the best version of Joe Biden. And when the primary came and you had outsiders like Bobby Kennedy try to compete, not only did Biden not debate, They basically used lawfare to keep Bobby Kennedy off the ballot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
They did not allow him a fair shot at the nomination, which is why he had to leave the party and run as an independent. Then we find out after the debate that actually Biden is not fine. He's actually appears to be in significant cognitive decline. So somehow Nancy Pelosi gets him out of there. And then Kamala Harris is anointed. She's never won a primary vote ever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
she in 2020 she ran and dropped out before the first primary and then this time around she never had to compete in the primary and somehow she's the candidate the question is i don't think well the question is how can you liken this to what the republicans did having an open and competitive primary so first of all the republicans did not have an open and competitive keyword competitive primary because if one of the candidates refuses to participate because they have a lead
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I was supporting DeSantis at that time, and it was definitely competitive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Their names were on the ballot. I know. You're talking about a very-
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I think when, if you look at... He would have beat them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, hold on. I'm saying it's unclear. I don't think you can just say that they would have won.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I didn't know that you took acting classes. That's interesting. Did you want to be an actor before a businessman or what? Oh, no, no, no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So that means it's not a truly competitive... When Trump was in a crowded Republican field and debated, he crushed everybody. So I just don't know what would have happened. That was 2016. But the point... That was 2016. This is just debate. This is just debate, okay? What about the point that the Democrats kept... other contenders off the ballot. They used lawfare.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And moreover, they lied about Biden's cognitive condition. And then they anointed Kamala Harris through a process that is opaque, and we still don't know what happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Why did they get rid of him?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
They are a private organization. Are they the party then of democracy as they claim to be? Or are they the party of winning it all?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Hold on a second. There were 14 million primary voters in the Democratic primary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
There's an open primary, though. People got to vote for their candidate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Listen, I mean, I was, again, I was supporting someone different during the primary. And the reason why DeSantis lost is he didn't get enough votes. Okay. The Republican primary voters wanted Donald Trump. That's why. Trump won the primary fair and square, whether he debated or not. He was up 50 points on everybody else. And I don't know. That is not what happened with Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
What happened with Biden is Biden won the Democratic primary. He got 14 million votes. And then they threw out that result and put in Kamala Harris because they didn't like his debate. We were in a fraternity. What's that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Right. So you're saying the Democratic Party is a clique. I get it. I think we're talking democracy. That's my only point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I'm not a Democrat. The Democrats said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I'm supporting Kamala Harris. Hold on. Can you just acknowledge that their rhetoric is hypocritical?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I can't resist asking. So, is your acting as a surrogate for Kamala? Is that acting too?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay, wait, wait. Can we get into this? Sure. Because you obviously have like a love-hate relationship with Trump going back 20-something years. Yeah. Let's just go through the timeline here. First of all, I don't hate the guy at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So that's an area we can agree on. But before we get to that, so your claim on borders.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, we can agree on that. We'll get to that. But before we do that, I just want to finish up on border here. So your claim is that Kamala Harris really wanted to seal the border, but she was prevented from doing so by Joe Biden. No, that's not what I said at all. He didn't say that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I'm just – you said that this was a case of a VP who was thwarted by her boss from doing what she wanted to do. No, that is not what I said. Okay, so you admit that she was on board.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, no, no. You are the king of positioning for virtue signaling. Okay, so the truth is she was on board with Joe Biden's agenda.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
If I agree or disagree, how do you know she disagreed with Joe Biden about these policies?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
She has a different policy. No, it's an election year conversion. She realizes what a disaster it's been. So when Trump does it, it's brilliant. No, let me give you the proof. Okay. Her own words. Okay. So she flipped her position. She called Trump's border wall un-American and medieval and mocked it. And this is before she became Biden's vice president. And right around the same time. Hold on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
When she was in the Senate and Trump was trying to build the wall, remember, Democrats tried to thwart that. They subjected him to years of litigation to prevent him from building that wall. And she, multiple times, was on record saying the wall was un-American, medieval, mocked, and so forth. She also compared ICE to the KKK. She said that images of Border Patrol agents evoke slavery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay, this is her rhetoric. I don't think Joe Biden made her say that. She suggested that we abolish ICE and start from scratch. OK, and now she wants to talk about how tough she is on the border.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're positioning as- Okay, so hold on. So throughout her whole time in the Senate, she was arguing against a border wall, okay, in the strongest possible language. She then becomes border czar, or you could call it point person for the Biden administration. And for three years, they gaslit us
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
that the border was not a problem, that it was not an open, festering wound, like the videos were constantly coming out. I remember on the show, we talked about it. And I was told when I raised the issue of the border, that was a conspiracy theory, that Fox News was just cherry picking videos. Remember that, Jason?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Something like over 10 million migrants have entered the country during the Biden-Harris administration. The first thing they did, hold on a second. First of all, we don't know. When Biden, when Biden, no. First of all, we don't know. No, no, we do know. Those 10 million are just the border encounters. Those are the recorded crossings that they led into the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The number we don't know is whether how many more were not recorded.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
That could be 20 or 30 million. Well, you can look up on encounters. Why did this happen? I'll tell you why. When Joe Biden took office, he repealed all of Trump's executive orders. No, he did not. What is it? Section 42? 90 of them. Title 42 stuck around until the end of 23.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And in addition, they got rid of Trump's remain in Mexico policy, and they changed the meaning of asylum so that anyone who went to the border and said that they were suffering economic hardship, which is basically the whole world, okay, could now qualify for asylum. And they were given like a ticket to appear in court one day, like three years, five years, and they were ushered into the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And then there were like nonprofits working with the Biden administration to put them on buses. David, I agree that they screwed up all over the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, that was in private communications in 2016. And J.D. Vance explained, including last night, why he changed his mind about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
This was her position like six months ago, and now all of a sudden she's the nominee.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
She was the point person for the administration. Okay, look.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I think J.D. explained why he changed his mind about that. He said that there was a referendum in Ohio and his side lost. So he can change his mind.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Hold on a second. He's taking a learning from that. Kamala Harris has never explained why she changed her mind. When will the media even ask her this question? She doesn't submit for interviews. And certainly the debate moderators like on ABC never asked her a question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Mark, if she's going to change her mind, if she's going to have this election year conversion, why doesn't the media ask her what is the basis of this? When did you change your mind? Was it five minutes ago? Why then did you support Biden throughout your entire last three and a half years? Why don't they ask her these questions?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
If you were part of the Biden administration, why did you volunteer to be the border czar if you disagree with Joe Biden about these policies? When exactly did you change your mind? Those are the questions that she should be answering. Why won't she answer? Those are the questions that you want. Why won't she submit to an adversary?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I think we actually have found a point to agree on, which is I think Kamala Harris is just saying whatever it takes to get elected.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Vance. Hold on. She stated her true belief years ago and throughout the Biden administration, which is she never believed the border was a problem. She thought the border wall, Trump's wall, was un-American and medieval. And she thought that ICE needed to be abolished. I think that was her true belief.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Now, if it's not her true belief, I would like her to explain when she changed her belief and why the same way that J.D. Vance did. And I think the American people are entitled to know that. And I think if the media was doing its job, they'd be asking her those questions. She's never been asked that. Stephanie Rule in her latest interview did not ask that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And the debate moderators did not ask that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He's been going on for weeks. I know he's not supporting Trump, but. I tell you one, one Republican that, as I understand that you are supporting is john Deaton, who is running against Elizabeth Warren in the Massachusetts Senate race. Yep. So I'm curious about this, because I think this is an area we could agree on. You're not sure. I didn't know that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Can I get your reaction to this story from the Washington Reporter? There was a story, I don't know if it's true or not, but according to some Senate sources, Kamala Harris was considering Gensler for Treasury Secretary. I would call that bullshit. Have you asked her about that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, I mean, the reason he's in that role is because he is Elizabeth Warren's ally. And she has been enormously powerful during the Biden administration.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You don't think it's relevant that she was born to a middle-class family as the answer to how she's going to solve inflation?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Two days ago. I thought you were talking about the RNC.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're talking about a rally? He will speak extemporaneously for over an hour.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I'll take that any day over someone on a teleprompter for 19 minutes. But David, so what you're saying, it doesn't matter what he says? No, I think it does matter, but I think that I've watched enough Trump rallies, including his speech at the convention where I was there listening, to understand what issues he stands for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I've heard him say good things and bad things about Jimmy Carter. Okay, so let's put that aside. Everyone makes fun of Jimmy Carter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I haven't heard that bit yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And then he also said that I also know that people take a lot of what Trump says out of context to make it seem a lot worse. If you listen to what he says and you don't try to, you know, shade it in the worst possible way, a lot of what he says makes sense. I believe that if you if you want to know why I support Trump, number one, the border. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Unlike Kamala Harris's election year conversion, he has been very consistent ever since he came down the escalator that we needed to have a wall. And that really, that was just the first part of our border security. We needed to have a border. Democrats, not just Kamala, pretty much all the Democrats fought him on that for the last eight years to the point where- I understand. I understand.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So the border is one thing. So you got that. Okay. So I think that he and only he has credibility in this election on that issue. Number two, on the foreign wars, we talked about this. I mean, I don't think his record on foreign policy was perfect, but it is true that he did not start any new foreign wars. Here's Joe Biden. What war did Joe Biden start? The Ukraine war. We could have ended that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He invaded Ukraine? I've argued on the show many times. In my view, he provoked it. He provoked it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
As opposed to Putin. Hold on a second. He forced Putin to invade Ukraine? Come on, stop acting dumb. You understand that we tried to convert Ukraine into a giant NATO base. The Russians said over and over again that that was a red line to them. It was the brightest... But to blame it on Biden is a little crazy. And Bill Burns, our current CIA director, said it best.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
It's the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite, not just Putin, okay? Okay. That has been a consistent Russian policy for over 20 years. And moreover, hold on a second, even if you don't believe, even if you disagree with me, and you say that Biden didn't provoke it, we had the chance to end the war in its first month with a deal at Istanbul.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
OK, and, you know, the mainstream media denied it for a year. It was only an alternative media. And then finally, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal wrote stories about it. It is the truth. Victoria Nuland just admitted it. We could have agreed to a deal in the first month. The Biden administration shot that down. That is why we have the war going in Ukraine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
OK, so let's just say that's a fact. Remember, Zelensky is also incredibly destructive. And by the way, if you care about Israel, hold on, Mark, if you care about Israel, you should be really concerned about the fact that the United States has significantly depleted its stockpiles of weapons and artillery ammunition in Ukraine on a war that is futile.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
155 millimeter artillery shells are 155 millimeter artillery shells. It's not about new or old.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
There's only so much air defense. There's only so many Patriots to go around.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He could only say yes to it if the U.S. supported it. And instead, we encouraged him to fight. We threw cold water on that deal. We blocked it. We should have told Zelensky, you know what? Just make that deal. We don't need another war right now. OK, this NATO thing's not happening anyway. OK, because we're not letting Zelensky into NATO.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
We're not going to let in. Zelensky was just here in the U.S. last week with his so-called victory plan. You know what his victory plan was? Let us into NATO immediately so that you can fight our war for us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
It's like meeting celebrities, right? Stuff like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The Biden administration, to its credit, rejected that. I give Biden credit for that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Whenever it's inconvenient, you want to pretend that Harris has nothing to do with this administration. No, I'm just giving you reality, David.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So she was just following orders, basically, the Nuremberg defense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
There's an abundant record. I know what J.D. Vance stands for. There was an abundant record of Kamala Harris as a senator before she even got the VP job. She was rated the most liberal member of the Senate by GovTrack. Why don't you answer Mark's question? It is. The question is, what does she really stand for? No, no. He asked you about J.D. Vance. You ignored his question. Sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
What's your question? I'm happy to answer it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, obviously, I understand that a VP cannot go against what the president wants.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Hold on a second. That fact does not prove that Kamala Harris has a different policy than Joe Biden whenever it's inconvenient for you to admit that Biden's policy sucks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
windowless bedrooms as a way to change the building codes to incentivize more apartments being built to fix the housing crisis converting the problem with converting the plates in commercial this is the gaslighting they try to make Trump seem crazy I mean Trump lies constantly let's be honest then you find out that there's a real basis to his
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You believe he's incognito? As an example of Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I think he's very sharp. We met him personally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Actually, let me ask you a question about that. When you did it, did you just do it for fun and it worked out to be a great business or did you think it was going to be a great business?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Let's show this. We have this. This was got tweeted.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Wait, what are those? Never heard of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, he was dancing on the grave of your show. So you're saying you didn't have beef with him before that letter just came out? No, it was not a beef.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay. But then when he ran in 2016, you were supportive. Can we show that? Let's show the 2016 clip. There's more in between.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Plus, you'd have to run as a Republican because Democrats hate billionaires like you. You saw what happened to Bloomberg, right? You saw what happened to Bloomberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
But $100 million made it to the first question of the first debate. Boom. Elizabeth Warren knocked him out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I know. I know. Look, I give you credit. You're fun to talk with and argue with. And you obviously don't take it personally. And I appreciate that. And yeah, I give you credit for having fun with it. I know too many depressed billionaires, so. Yeah. I give you a lot of credit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, we could still go there. Where's Jake?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't think you need much of a theory to explain Elon's views because he's just so transparent about what he believes. I truly believe that his core conviction and the reason he bought Twitter X is because he wanted to unlock it as a free speech platform. I don't think so. I don't know how much more money he can lose in pursuit of that goal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't think he knew. He didn't know that he would get boycotted by all these advertisers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And taking out a huge amount of the cost structure, which he did. Jason and I were there on the first day. The first day he took over, there was an organized boycott of advertisers. They called him anti-Semitic, which is ridiculous, before he even had a chance to do one thing about that site.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Unless there's a collusive effort going on to sort of organize those advertisers into a boycott. I don't understand why you won't give him credit for believing in free speech. That's clearly the principle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't know. I mean, he said, he said before he bought it, that he was going to open it up as a free speech platform. And this is why, hold on. This is why the left immediately started boycotting him before he even changed one policy. Jake, help me out. You were there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't see the need here to look past or to look for an ulterior motive in what Elon's doing. Elon believes in free speech. It's very clear. He's run the platform that way. And it's costing money. So what else could the motivation be except his principles?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I know, but that's not why he's running it as a free speech podcast. Let me give you my counter to that. You know him better than I do. Why are we even having this debate? Who cares? I know, I'm just curious. He's running as a free speech platform.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Let me ask you, actually, to me, this debate is kind of pointless, but let's talk about actually the issue. There's a news story this week where OpenAI just raised, what was it, $6 billion at $150 billion valuation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
um they originally started that enterprise with 50 million or so from elon it was a non-profit then they became a for-profit now there's a report saying that they're telling investors in this round that they can't invest in any other ai companies so they're acting like i mean they've gone from non-profit philanthropy to piranha for-profit company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yeah, it is a sharp elbow. Sam said he wasn't going to take compensation. Now he's getting compensation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Period. They're not under false pretenses. But don't invest.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
All right, guys. I got to go. Appreciate it, David. Mark, you've been really fun to talk to. So good talking to you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And so what happens... Just so the audience can understand. So the email is from you to him saying, tell the boss, I said, congrats on his sweep. And then his assistant printed it out and then wrote back to you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Why is it that all the Democrats are afraid to call themselves Democrats?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Nasty. How did he send this to you? He emailed this to you or what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He doesn't use email. I mean, the guy is a different generation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Is this a different generation? No. At least that's my interpretation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Because he's doing so much shady stuff, man. I think you're reaching there. Obviously, there's a paper trail. If he writes on a piece of paper, hold on. If I write right now on a post-it note, scan an email to you, there's a paper trail.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
His assistant created an electronic record. What's the difference? You have to ask him on that, but he said it out loud. I think it's a generational thing. This is my interpretation. I think it's a generational thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
But here, you can open it up, maybe listen to each other, invite guests in with different opinions, learn something. Specifically with the immigration issue, which seems to be the one that's tearing us apart a whole bunch, there's so much consensus. Hey, we want the border closed, we want it legal, but we also want to bring in a certain number of people and we want a system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
I did my research on this and places that have consensus like Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, they seem to understand that you need to match
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
immigration to the reality of unemployment and which jobs you need but the one criticism i have of politicians which i think you're one of um sadly guilty as charged yeah is you you all don't talk about it in numbers we need this many nurses we need this many doctors we need this many construction people we have four percent unemployment record great job to our politicians and helping that out
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
you know, we can bring in 2 million people this year. Hey, if it goes up to 5%, we're gonna bring in 1.5. I wish that the discussion could be more granular and with numbers, and you guys could actually say, it's not 500, it's 450.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Because if we were in a business decision here, and we do business together, and we say, hey, we have to deploy these resources to get this outcome, but it's so contentious and polarized and not fact and number based. Why is that on this issue that you guys can't just put some numbers on paper?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
62% right now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Why aren't they, in your mind? Is it because they have the resources to not do that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Says something about resiliency, doesn't it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Let me ask you a question. Having lived in New York and grown up there, and then done 20 years in California now, my second year in Texas, or starting my second year, it's amazing to me that you're allowed to build things in Texas, like homes or factories, and the price of homes has gone down two years in a row. And then the other two places I live, the price of homes go up every year, 10%, 20%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
And then you don't have state taxes. How is all this possible when you look at it just from first principles? How are you able to accomplish so much development in Texas when in California the nimbyism, like literally if you want to build a cancer ward for children, they'll stop you because it throws shade on a protected species of flower.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Right. So the input gets higher and everybody suffers. Got it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Yeah, that's a tough job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Well, you know what you should have done? You should have asked him to keep the same number, but just make the check larger and the signature bigger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
I mean, it's a fairly... Why would he do that? Go to Mar-a-Lago? I mean, such a stupid thing to do. He just should have been like, yeah, we're our own sovereign country, thanks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Pretty great. Where'd you get the boots? Any chance I can get a recommendation here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
He wanted back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
This could be like a whole new philosophy for us. I think we just go right to 60 states.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
I mean, there's a long history of this. Puerto Rico next. Let's go. If they want to come on board, why not? Well, it's an American territory. It's not a state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
They hate him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
The food system is so screwed. Like, let him cook. Let's see what he can do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
All right, listen, your people have been trying to get you to end for 20 minutes, but you know what? Let the man cook. I got to tell you, I got to tell you. Our bestie Phil Hellmuth, every time he sees you, comes back to our poker game, says what a great poker player, what a gentleman. He drops your name. I can get him on the phone right now. I told him, call him right now. He never does it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
He was 100% right. You are amazing. Great to have you on the podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Just so you know, the boots play.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
So great to have you and congratulations on the big win and thank you for your service. Appreciate it. Thank you very much. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Hey everybody, welcome back to the All In Podcast. We're here at the inauguration of our 47th president, Donald J. Trump, and we have a very special guest joining us on our coverage, Senator Ted Cruz from the great state, now my great state, of Texas. Welcome to the All In Podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
And it's safety.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Y'all got to stop giving me a hard time about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
We were involved in the recall of Chesa Boudin, our podcast, and David Sachs, our compatriot who couldn't make it. He's busy working with you guys here. But yeah, this crime issue seems... People have seemed to have lost the script on... who the state is working for, the taxpayers or the criminals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
And in Texas, it's just extraordinary that you've figured out that you could prioritize the people not committing crime and not cater to the people committing crime. I mean, I'm saying this in the most facetious way possible, but it's just common sense. And I think it feels to me like Californians have had enough and it's just going to take a decade or two to unwind it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
But let's double click on immigration since the great state of Texas has to deal with this more than anybody. But this is a land of immigrants. We are all immigrants on this land. And so that's our tradition. In fact, you're sitting next to two extraordinary immigrants, my besties Chamath and Freeburg. What do you believe at this point in time? Is America for the Americans who are here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Or do you believe we should be getting the best and brightest to come to this country?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Was he able to see your success? Is he still with us?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Oh my God, what a dream for him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
There's something about the podcast format where you're taking a little bit of time. You're not rushed in six or seven minutes like you are on the weekly shows where I see you all the time. And that's sparring. And you're just trying to get a message out in three minutes, five minutes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The subversion of democracy is really the real threat to democracy. To your point, you have the right to elect a person up or down. None of us are choosing to elect a shadow cabinet of handlers to run America. That's not what any of us are signing up for. And I think that's what we have the risk of having for another four years if this lie isn't exposed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
What I find unbelievably shocking is all of these data points now just make so much sense because the through line is, as you said, a coordinated effort to kind of obfuscate his decline. Like if you thought about this in a different way, if you took a 29-year-old and a 32-year-old, would you say that they're the same? Absolutely, right? If you took a 39 and a 42-year-old, they're the same.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
A 49 and a 52-year-old, they're the same. But the reality is a 79 and an 82-year-old or a 78 and an 82-year-old are meaningfully different. And the reason is that because there is significant decline every year, every month, every day, and you're seeing the impact of every week, day, and month, and year as a president of the United States wear on an 82-year-old body.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And I'm not sure any of us would do much better. But the reality is that when you're at that age, there's a level of transparency that's required and we have the opposite. So take Warren Buffett as the counterfactual to this. Warren Buffett is in his early 90s. But what does he do every year? He marches tens of thousands of people into Omaha. He sits them down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
He sits at the front of a dais with Coca-Cola and peanut brittle and speaks for six to eight hours and is sharp as a tack. Well, the point is, if you decide after those six to eight hours of fully transparent, unedited interaction with Warren Buffett that you don't think he's capable of leading Berkshire, you can sell the stock.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
What they don't do is hide him behind the shadows, propping him out in package interviews and all of this other stuff. That is un-American and undemocratic. And you see why, because the importance, as Friedberg said, is so high. You probably do have a lot of people outside the United States
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
really questioning what is going on in the greatest country in the world right now, that this can even happen. And the people that you thought were so anti-Trump, right, that they would do anything to make sure that Donald Trump was unelected, while they're actually not that anti-Trump, they're just pro-power.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Because the thing that they care more about than their hatred of Donald Trump is their desire to stay in power.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The hot swap is going to create a free-for-all, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Hold on. Satire Sacks has a rebuttal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
It's incredible that not a single staff member has resigned. Isn't that incredible? Like, where they see this, Jason, and they have the moral clarity to say, hold on a second, this is really wrong. Not a single one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
How, like, how does somebody who's worked for Biden for 40 or 50 years, who sat in Camp David helping to do debate prep, at no point have the compassion to say, sir, this is not working?
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The only reason they have a job.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I'm just saying.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't think you need to go into all of those mechanics to get the outcome of a new candidate. All Joe Biden has to do is go into the Democratic Convention and release the delegates. Yes, of course. Yes, technically.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
But the problem with releasing the delegates is I do think it creates a free-for-all unless the party then exposes this next facet of their plan, which is that they are so in control that they only allow one candidate to go up there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yeah, that's done. And then I think what happens is depending on who that person is, they'll either... I think the Democratic Party... is probably at risk of a pretty meaningful reset. And I think that these tactics, I think are very much seen and understood by the American people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think that people do not like this idea that you vote for person A, but instead you get persons B through Z. I don't think that's what anybody thinks the election for the president of the United States should be. It should be two people independently. And then when you see one person that's not really in a position to run faithfully,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I actually think that Donald Trump last night showed tremendous restraint and compassion. I think that is the right way to deal with this situation. I think it's just acknowledging that President Biden is not altogether there. So without making claims of a cold or anything else, this is the security and the well-being and the economic prosperity of the most important country in the world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Why are we messing around?
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
This also goes all the way back to 2016, because if you remember and you look at the real run up into the 2016 primary, you have to remember President Obama sat Joe Biden down and said, you cannot run. And the reason was to direct the Democratic Party and establishment and energy towards Hillary Clinton, who ultimately lost that election.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
There's a very important question here, which is if Joe Biden had actually run in 2016, you may have actually had him beat Donald Trump in 2016, and he probably would have continued into 2020. This would be a totally different situation for the Democrats.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So back to your point, David, all of these backroom shenanigans and negotiating and gerrymandering and politicking and power broking is not how democracy should work. As messy as the Republicans are, I have to give, you know, I tip my hat to them. They run very straightforward, fair, visible, transparent face-offs between people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And you may not like the candidates, but the process is what it's supposed to be, messy, turbulent, but you see all sides. Whereas this tends to be managed from the inside out. And I think that that is, as your point, being exposed. And I think that's what really has to stop within the Democrats. They need to open the floodgates. A Bobby Kennedy should have had the chance to run.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Dean Phillips should have actually had the chance to run, but they were not and they were prevented. And by the way, props to Dean Phillips, who in a very respectful and compassionate way was telling the truth from day one. And he was essentially censored. He was not allowed to basically tell you what he... He told everybody what he observed in front of his face.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
No, because I donated. I donated and I didn't get anything. All I asked for was a chance to sit down and talk to the president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I just think that company formation has changed after the end of Zerp. And so I think that that chart speaks more to a couple of things. One is that where typically people were hiring for software engineering roles, which was a lot of SaaS businesses, contracted a lot, and the net new amount of SaaS startups also, I don't think, materially increased. And so that was one big switch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Second is you went through a whole bunch of layoffs at the big cap tech companies as they reestablished profitability. I think when you layered those two things, that explains that chart more than the emergence of AI tools. Just practically what I see is all of these AI tools can add a 10% or 15% lift to an individual person if you are in a traditional organization.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't think these things are the panacea that they're marketed as being. These are not creating 10x engineers. At some point, these tools will be good enough, and at some point, companies will get started from scratch that use those tools and create a level of productivity at one-tenth of the workforce, but that hasn't happened yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So I think that that chart is more about layoffs and contraction in tech more than anything else.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I mean, it makes so much sense for them. So I think they should do it as quickly as possible. We are in the first inning of what should probably be an enormous tectonic shift in technology. And I think if anything... whoever wins in the first inning usually isn't the one that's winning by the ninth inning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And so I would encourage anybody that's winning right now to monetize, get secondaries, take money off the table as fast as possible because the future is unknown. And the more disruptive the technology is, the more entropy there is, which means that there's going to be more changes, not less. And again, I would just look at search as an example. I would look at social networking as an example.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
When you look 20 years later, the people who captured all the value were not the ones at the beginning who everybody thought was going to win. And so I think if it plays out similarly, it's important for the people that are in the lead today to recognize it's too early and they should monetize their perceived success as quickly as they can to the largest magnitude possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yeah, grab the bag if you can. Grab the bag. But what is it called? Secure the bag, sorry. Secure the bag.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
What are your thoughts here? Secure the bag.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think these multiples are not really what's going to drive their behavior. I think OpenAI is running a very strategic game plan to become part of the tech establishment as quickly as they can so that they are in the inside looking out as opposed to the outside looking in. They were able to add the former head of the NSA to their board of directors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
People got pretty... It's how you become part of the establishment. Do you think the former head of the NSA no longer has a security clearance or knows people in the NSA? No, of course not. And I think that there is a group of people that want to make sure that these kinds of technologies and capabilities are firmly within the hands of the United States apparatus and not anybody else.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And so I think that that pulls them closer to the kinds of folks that could otherwise give them a hard time, right, or regulate them, or, etc, etc. So now what happens is when you have Senate hearings about this stuff. It's more likely that it's confidential behind closed doors. It's under the purview of national security. All these things are beneficial to OpenAI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And then secondly, they were able to get Elon to drop his lawsuit. Conveniently, I think it was like on the same day that the head of the NSA was added to the board or the former head of the NSA. So
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The next logical step is now to create capital markets distribution, which is really about syndicating ownership of the company to all the big, deep pools of money so that they are also rowing in the same direction in support of open AI. And so that's what a lot of people don't get. It's not about valuations or this and that. This is about creating a high-level game theory of how to create
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
an international apparatus that supports your corporate objectives. There are a few companies that have done this well, and they are now one of them. The only thing left is to get shares into the hands of the Black Rocks, the T-Rows, all the big mutual fund apparatuses of the world that then syndicate to all the individual investors of the world. And you have everything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You have government connections. You have no real legal overhang. Then the likelihood that an IRS agent all of a sudden decides to audit OpenAI is basically zero.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't think it's cynical. It's like a smart business strategy. Strategy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
We're about to enter the endgame, Jason.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
There's an important insight here that I think people are missing, which is that Foundational models are quickly becoming a consumer surplus. Every model is roughly the same. They keep getting better and better, but they're also approaching these asymptotic returns. And what do you do when something approaches an asymptotic return?
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You need to change a key underlying variable that you use to build these models. And it looks like one of those variables that people are looking at is how you basically take the internet, not as raw data, but then you actually kind of refine it and refine it some more and then use that as the basis of learning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And what that does is it drives up model costs to a degree that are probably untenable for most companies except but for a few. So I think it was Dario Amadei, the CEO of Anthropic, who said the cost of a good functional model today is in the billions, but by 2027, it could easily approach $100 billion.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The problem that that represents for Ilya's company, and I wish him the best of luck, but the reality is there isn't $100 billion for him to have. Google will find it. Microsoft will find it. Facebook will find it.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
OpenAI will probably find it. Amazon will find it. But I suspect that these other startups, there just isn't that much money going into AI because the returns don't justify it. So I think the bigger problem that you have is that it's becoming an arms race. It's not dissimilar actually to ride sharing. When people saw Uber's success, they thought, well, this is simple.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And it was, but you had to subsidize losses for decades before that company was profitable. But meanwhile, you had to starve all of these other companies that were funded to compete with Uber until they ran out of money and died. I think that you could make a claim that the AI foundational model market will look similar to that. One startup... can probably win.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
But there will be a bunch of open source alternatives. They're all asymptotically similar. And so it's an arms race on cost and compute. And I just don't see VCs having the temperament and the wherewithal to fund hundreds of billions of dollars into multiple companies to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Microsoft has been bundling products to kill competitors for 40 years. The 10 years that they didn't do it was the 10 years when Steve Ballmer was in charge, during which there was a legal document between Microsoft and the Justice Department, a consent decree, that prevented them from doing it. That consent decree came to be because of this exact strategy.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And the most famous example that was the tail end of that process was when they used Internet Explorer and they bundled it with Microsoft Windows and they killed Netscape, right? So there's umpteen examples of this. So I think that they've gone back to their old playbook. It's a playbook that you have to remember the executives that run Microsoft have been there for 30 and 40 years.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
They know this play and they know that it works and they've been rewarded incredibly handsomely by the public markets. So they're going to keep doing it. Would Slack have sold to Salesforce? Now, look, I'm not complaining. It was a $27 billion acquisition. But the question is, if it were allowed to compete feature for feature, Could it have beat Teams? Possibly.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Would the board have made, and I was on the board of Slack, a decision to have tried? Possibly. But none of those options were on the table. Because when you see a product, it doesn't matter how inferior it is, get bundled in, it's kind of DOA. And then you're on a melting iceberg. And so you have to make a very quick decision to preserve enterprise value.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So I think what this comes down to is the FTC and the DOJ need to dust off that old consent decree, read it, and figure out whether this makes sense again. It seems like folks in the EU have more recently read that consent decree than American regulators have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Let me just start by saying that President Biden is a person that's given up his whole life to work on behalf of America in the best way that he thought was possible. He's overcome a lot of tragedies. I think he's worked very hard. He's diligently tried to do what he thought was right on behalf of the people of Delaware and then the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Commodities have finite shelf lives, right?
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You can't rip it out.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Enterprises don't think that way.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't think we're debating that. I think what we're debating is the sales practice where Microsoft says, well, you need Office, you need Windows, and you need 365, or sorry, Active Directory. Well, if you'd like all of these things, we're gonna give you this product for free as well, and they're going to be tightly integrated. Then when you go to Slack, You have to pay more.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And then you think to yourself, well, how do I go back to my CFO and say, I need an extra $1.2 million a year for this enterprise license to Slack? And then people say, well, it's- That's my point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think you're missing something here, Friedberg, which is like, what happens then when, let's just say Slack, there wasn't a suitor for Slack. Okay, let's take the internet browser example because I think it's better. If you didn't have a multi-hundred billion dollar company prop up a product because they just felt like it, i.e.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Chrome and Google, you would have had Microsoft run away with the core interface for the internet. We don't know how that would have turned out. So by luck... We've had some modicum of consumer choice, but it's not as if Firefox did well. Firefox went to basically irrelevancy. Netscape went to zero.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So there are examples where when Microsoft has done this, they can starve the market of choice over long periods of time.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So if your whole point is, well, let's just bet on the largesse of other large companies, that's a bad bet. But I will show you multiple counterexamples.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Again, you're talking about the largest of companies. You're talking not about competitive practices. Find me, venture-funded people, risk-taking people who need a return on investment. Google is the worst example. They have the most indiscriminate forms of spending. I'm not saying that they shouldn't be allowed to.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
My honest takeaway is that that person, though, is no longer really in charge. And I think that that was very troubling for me. And it actually makes the last sort of six months make a lot more sense. So I thought the fact that we could not get a response from the White House to be, I took it a little bit actually personally.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
No, that's not a counterexample.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The point of a healthy product environment and market is not that one incumbent and another incumbent can create their own crappy versions. It's that you could theoretically have An open market where somebody can be funded with nominal amounts of capital and compete effectively, that isn't possible in many markets in software because of these kinds of strategies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So what you're reduced to are these huge companies with this product sprawl. I don't think those are good products. And I think we're lying to ourselves to say that they are. Google Meet is a terrible product, okay? So whatever they're competing with is a terrible alternative.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And if you try to find a real competitor to build an alternative to it, they're not able to get funded because the venture investor says, no, I can't. And that's the market power that stifles competition. That's what this is about.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Let's fund it. Let's go after it. I don't think there's a single person.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The Zoom example is a terrible one. And the reason is that P&L would have a hole blown on the side of it if they did not have 90% of their R&D and OPEX in China. But for the grace of God and Eric's strategic thinking, they were able to survive. But that is a perfect example of a company that would absolutely not have existed had they not had a labor arbitrage.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
That is not the basis of a competitive and fair market. And you cannot expect people going off to all far corners of the world and trying to do all these gymnastics to viably compete against a Microsoft and a Google.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think the interesting thing with Adobe is that they have a product suite that's used in a narrow field. I think what Sax is saying is Adobe is about a sort of vertical system of record.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think what the thing about Microsoft and you could probably say about Google is, but less so, but definitely for Microsoft is they are these very horizontal, broad, amorphous systems of record that you cannot easily replace. There aren't people running around building nine of the 19 things that Microsoft gives you in the bundle. That's the problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Bundling is when you take a wrench and a can of peanut butter and put them together and run Like, here, you're going to take them both. You're like, well, I only need the wrench. Well, you're going to take the peanut butter. And they're like, well, I already have peanut butter, so I don't need to buy new peanut butter.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I was wondering why for someone that had been such an ardent supporter, I couldn't even get an email back when I was consistently asking them to be on the pod. And now I see that it wasn't just one single act. It was part of a holistic strategy. It was the same strategy that boxed RFK out of the Democratic primary.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Because could you imagine if this event had happened when he had to debate RFK in the Democratic primaries? It would have been exposed then. It's probably partly to explain how the law has been used in New York state. whether you want to call it lawful or not, but it was a very directed partisan action. And so all of these things are now three data points that are really important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You will not come on an open format show like ours to just speak openly. None of us were going to attack him or try to corner him or box him in. You prevented other people from actually challenging you and directly asking questions of you in the Democratic primaries. And then you try to put political pressure on your opponents.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
All of that is systematically about a group of people that are unelected who are trying to control democracy. And I think that that's the most troubling takeaway from this. I don't think that you should take away from last night that Joe Biden had a bad debate.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think what we should take away is that there is a person who should be allowed to transition into the sunset and be celebrated for what he's done, and instead there are people that, frankly, at the margins are acting pretty unethically and at the limit is actually acting somewhat diabolically to prop this person up so that they can keep power.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
For example, you've been in situations where you would expect the team that runs a company to be able to stand up and say the CEO is not in a position to run this company anymore. That's what you would expect if there's good governance and honesty. You know, what was Ron Klain doing, as an example, when he was doing debate prep?
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Did he legitimately believe that Joe Biden was prepared for this or mentally capable of actually doing this? And the fact that they are allowing his legacy to be destroyed after 50 years, I think, is really tragic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Satire sucks is into the chat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You're saying the media and the Democratic Party leadership are lying to America.
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Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Thomas, did you have a takeaway after the weekend?
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You look like you were in your afterglow. And I have to say, that was looking pretty good. We have some pictures.
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Freeberg, did you have a takeaway coming out of this?
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Armani came through for Amore, the Amore collection from Armani coming this fall.
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He was great, by the way. I love Ted Cruz.
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Yeah, we're going to get into that in just a moment. And to build on your point there, Dave, Senator Sanders had a tweet today. Nick, I just sent it to you. Already the discussion of like who should take the brunt of these cuts is starting to happen. And he's pointing out, you know, as he should. And, you know, hey, what's going to happen with the VA? And you're putting a freeze on hiring people.
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You know, I was just thinking that. Armani really has been making it happen.
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We have to make sure our vets are taken care of. We have a shortage of doctors, a shortage of nurses. But we do have people responding to him saying, hey, how are we going to pay for all this?
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So even if it's going to be hard to do, it's going to take courage because you're going to be faced with situations like this where does anybody want to see VA's budget cut and these veterans who are coming back? They should get all the services in the world. And these hard discussions are now happening. And it's not taboo.
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So the Overton window is wide open now to discuss even the budget of the VM and where is the money going to come from. So I think we're actually going to make progress on it. This was like a sacred cow. And now we're talking about it. To Bernie Sanders' point, I don't know if you saw, there was a note on there, Nick.
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Community notes pointed out that Trump put that none of the cuts should impact vets. I thought that was a good use of community notes there.
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And, of course, here he is, your sultan of science. David Friedberg.
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Yes.
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It seems like the point of these should be if somebody could get compromised or there was something really gnarly in their background. But otherwise, yeah, let people build their team and then they have to own their results.
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Well, you know, it's obviously mixed. I was a never Trumper and now I'm rooting for him wholeheartedly to do great work.
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You kind of like him.
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Well, I mean, anybody who's interacted with Trump likes him.
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There are aspects I like about the platform. I like probably 80% of the platform.
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And I will tell you today that 20% I don't like. I'm always going to call balls and strikes.
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You know, there's things I really don't like, and I'll talk about them today. But anyway, let's put it aside. The personal thing doesn't matter. What matters is what he does for the American people and for the country.
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You were happy to be there? I have to say, I had a lot of fun.
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I will say, Republicans are fun. Fashion was off the hook. Off the hook. A lot of great fashion, and it was a great party.
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Wonderful. He's very bitter today. He's got a lot of anger. He is the barista of bitterness today. He's serving up bitterness all day long. And he had a great time at the, maybe he's a little upset about the Lex Friedman triangle we're in right now. I think that could be part of it. And we have a special guest here. Thomas LaFont is the co-founder of KOTU Management.
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What I'll say my takeaway was, you know, as somebody who had concerns, you know, I'm not going to make the show about me. But the important thing for me is who is Trump going to lead with this time around? Is it going to be the people from the sort of 1.0 movement or the 2.0 movement? There was not a 1.0 person. Couldn't be found. Couldn't be found.
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And so to like, on the margin one or two, and they were not the focus and who you put in the front row speaks volumes. Who do you put in the front row? Sundar, Elon, Zuck, Lauren Sanchez, he's got his priorities straight. The priorities were very clear as to what's important for this administration. And I'm fully behind.
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All of his priorities, both of those priorities, all those priorities seem incredibly important to me.
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I mean, I don't want to troll too much, but that's the big takeaway for me. And if that is, you know... indicative of where he wants to go with this, which is business first. We're proud of our leaders. We're proud of innovation. I think he's sticking it to it. Did you see him at Davos today? He did a... I mean, this guy's got just crazy energy.
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Trump zoomed into Davos and just dunked on them for 45 minutes. He did? Yes. And he just... destroyed everybody at their dying conference in their irrelevance as they genuflected begging him to come next year.
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It's irrelevant. I mean, these people are irrelevant now.
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All right, let's get to our docket today. And I just want to give a special shout out. We did our inauguration live stream, and it was awesome and fun. Special thanks to Air Call, Abra, and Hymns. Thomas, if you've ever got an issue with weight...
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or you know other issues that men have you can go to hymns and use the code all in to get something hymns.com slash all in i want you to write that down thomas okay in case you ever have any any issues uh that's what makes you think i haven't already well it's anything's possible like i mean maybe we could talk i mean are you on the choose or the pills which one anyway talk about it offline but that's a full head of hair it is a really incredible head of hair
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Or you got promise? What do you do?
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They got a 50 billy under management, public, private, yada, yada. Before that, he worked at Creative Artist Agency for seven years after he went to college. So he does have the college degree. He signed Captain America. which is Freeberg's favorite Avenger. Chris Evans. Chris Evans.
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Oh, air dry. Gotcha. So when you're driving to that Santa Monica office, you just put the top down on whatever convertible, living that full lifestyle.
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Are they real glasses or you just wear the clear ones to get the extra intelligence points?
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Akash was hilarious. Thank you, Akash.
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filling in our dei department we lost shamath and they sent akash so he did great get him back to guesses absolutely yeah there's a moderator slot open so he's going to be yeah absolutely if you know anybody who knows science all right in our first topic president trump smashed the record for day one executive orders 26 in all beating the prior record of nine by uncle joe biden
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No other president signed more than one EO on day one since the Federal Register started tracking this in 1937. Let's go through them. If you want to comment on one, we'll stop and pause, or we can just run through them, gentlemen. Doge officially was established, and... People are making note of the Doge SWAT team. Doge will assign an agency head to each federal agency.
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The agency head will build a four-person team. This will include an engineer, an HR specialist, and an attorney. It was separately announced that Vivek was leaving Doge to run for governor of Ohio. Fascinating. Interesting. I don't know if anyone's got a take there. They suspended the TikTok ban for 75 days.
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There's a lot more to get into this, so we're going to break that down a little later in the show. Let's talk about TikTok. Yeah, okay, we'll go right to that in a minute. The January 6th pardons, they pardoned 1,500 January 6th participants, including some that savagely beat cops. Very controversial. We'll get back to that in a moment.
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Ending birthright citizenship, this is a controversial one that is being fought legally. Those born in the U.S. to illegal immigrants would no longer be considered citizens if this holds up. The birthright citizenship... is codified in the 14th Amendment and 22 state attorney generals have already sued over this executive order. So it might be a performative one.
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Energy, unleashing American energy, we're going to jump into that one for sure. And then federal employees, a hiring freeze and a full return to office. And the hiring freeze doesn't apply to military. immigration enforcement, or public safety, and then a regulatory freeze on regulations. Gentlemen, where do we want to start? Jan 6, TikTok, Doge? Thomas, you're our guest.
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Where do you want to start? I'm happy to chat about TikTok. Okay. As we mentioned earlier, Trump extended TikTok's grace period by 75 days. Trump said he wants to get a deal done. He also said at a press conference that he'd like the US to own 50% of TikTok, and that it could be a trillion-dollar asset. that's unique and interesting.
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He was also positive about the idea of Elon possibly buying it or maybe Larry Ellison or anybody. So he wants to make a deal
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Yes, and you're still in touch with him.
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Daily active users, for folks who don't know the terminology.
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Now, behind you, we see this incredible view.
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So let me ask you the obvious question. People are looking at this and saying, wait, you're going to take 50% of your shares. And in this case, we actually have somebody who has shares. So are you comfortable with the government seizing 50% of your shares, I guess is one way to frame it?
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I can tell you that when we- Well, that's the deal he proposed. So if in that scenario, would you, yeah. Yeah.
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Well, the Trump deal, though, is he's saying the government, the United States government, the citizens of America, we get half of the company. So that would be the equivalent of you giving half your shares. The US company. The US company, yeah. So what do you think of this proposal? Because this seems like... unique in all the world.
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Okay. Let's see what happens here. Now, what's this view behind you? This is Los Angeles.
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So if in order to have it spin out and maintain half your shares, would you be willing to give all of us, the government, the citizens of the United States, half your shares?
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So it's a black box in some ways, you know, in terms of a market to invest in. You only have a limited amount of information. And after Jack, I mean, you got to think after Jack Ma kind of disappeared for a couple of years, if you're an entrepreneur and you want to like... The message was sent. The message was sent, message received.
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And then you start thinking about Chamath, you know, what Trump just did. And what Xi Jinping just did. You put those two things together. Trump put all of our top guys, top dogs on stage. Here they are.
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And ultimately, won't this be the Chinese government's decision? Because they could always say, you know what?
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Hey, Madame Producer, can you come on the horn for a second here? Are we really going to do this? Yes, we are. We're going to do it. We're doing it, Madame. This is so stupid. This is so stupid. Did I tell you to get Friedberg involved? No. No. I did it myself.
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You know, Chamath, to build on that, people don't remember, but Tesla got $465 million from the Department of Energy. That was called the ATVM program, which was the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing. That was a very visionary program at the time. Visionary. But it took no equity. But it didn't take equity. That was dumb. So dumb.
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They should have gotten some portion of equity, some portion of a loan. Tesla did so well, thanks to Elon and the team's hard work, that they paid it back early. They paid it back early. That's how well they did. If they had owned 10% of Tesla, but 10%,
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Yeah, it's a great deal. And why not give a little upside to the taxpayers? I agree with that.
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Yeah. Freeberg, which EO would you like to go to next?
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You're 100% right. And by the way, the CCP has done it already. They did it to Apple. And if you follow what happened when they introduced iCloud, I don't know if you remember GCBD, GCBD? is the Chinese state-owned data company, the cloud provider there. And they just told Apple, we get all the data. And they just had to roll over.
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And all citizens in China who use an iPhone, in order to use an iPhone in China, your data is owned by the government, period, full stop. And Apple had no choice but to do that. So if you want to play in a certain market... You got to play by the rules.
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Now, when did I find out about this?
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Yeah, we'll go right to that after we wrap up these executive orders. And I, too, wanted to talk about January 6th, just to give people the update here. J.D. Vance had said that the people who committed violence on January 6th, quote, obviously shouldn't be pardoned. And this is a parade of people who are on the Republican side who are coming out against how President Trump handled this.
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I think you all know where I would fall on this side of it. Where are your thoughts on this?
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You know, I come from a family of cops, and I feel like he's betrayed the blue on this one. And, you know, if there are people who, I think he should have taken his time with this. It is possible that some people had sentences that were too long. The justice system you know, is imperfect in our country.
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And the pardon power is theirs, I think, specifically, to do a very granular job of looking at each case, right. And so I think we have to look at pardon power generally, after what we saw the Biden family do. And now we see Trump doing this. So I think the pardon power is not being used as it's intended. It's being used politically now by both parties.
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I found out about this this morning. I found out about this like an hour ago. How are you feeling? I feel 80% of a normal J-Cow, which is 110% of any other moderator. I mean, get yourself Andrew Vore Sorkin. Oh, I'm sorry. He's genuflecting at Davos to a bunch of mids.
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So I'm trying to call balls and strikes here. But, you know, as somebody who's in law enforcement, a family that's in law enforcement, and my chosen career was to be a cop and an FBI agent. And, you know, just looking at it, it's just heartbreaking to see people beat cops and then be treated as heroes. And some of these people are very dark people.
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You know, the Oath Keepers and some of these people are extremely violent. And they're coming out now after this has all been said and saying that they're going to double down, they're going to buy more guns, and that they're going to get their retribution.
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And so I think you have to be really careful with violent people that you give them this coronation and that they were justified because they'll go do more violent things. And so I understand he made this promise to people. I think... He should have been very granular in doing this.
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I totally understand there could be people who got sentences that were too long, and I would have liked to seen him do this thoughtfully. This was not done thoughtfully. I have a certain amount of goodwill towards the new president, and this has lowered it.
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Oh, that'd be great. Hello. I am Lex Friedman. Welcome to the number one podcast in the world. Today on the program, we have Thomas Lafon, investor in such great companies as... All right, listen, enough shenanigans. We had so much fun. We tore DC apart.
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Yeah, the informants stuff, we'll have to wait for that to come out because that's in conspiracy corner for now.
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The Proud Boy leader, Enrique Tarrio, this is his quote on getting out. I'm happy the president's focusing not on retribution and focusing on success, but I will tell you that I'm not going to play by those rules. They need to pay for what they did. These are some seriously bad hombres, the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers. And so don't be surprised if they do something worse.
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The birthright thing. If you came here illegally and had a child, you get to be a citizen, just to be clear.
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Okay, a couple more issues I want to get to on the docket.
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And just programming note here, research note, 6,500 people of those 8,000 seem to be convicted of marijuana possession or distribution.
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I don't disagree, but I think there is some compassion in the pardon concept for how long do they have to wait for that?
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I mean, how long do you have to wait for that? You know, and then like the people who were, you know, convicted of selling dime bags or having an ounce of weed on them or black and brown. And then all my white friends who started weed companies are now taking them public in Canada. So shout out Trudeau. All right, let's keep moving here.
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I think we, we, we've, we did some good job here on the reconciliation on the pod.
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where do we want to go next stargate project stargate stargate stargate stargate and energy yeah stargate energy okay so here we go and i'm gonna go to to our guest here thomas thomas anything on january 6th or controversial topics like smoking weed that you want to jump in on there no okay great sure help your lps just breathed Hey, you're coming on the all-in podcast.
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Anything on Lauren Sanchez's outfit. Okay, let's continue. Another big story from week one. We are literally not even... Three or four days into this, it's going to be a crazy four years. According to OpenAI's press release, the Stargate project is a new company which intends to invest $500 billion over the next four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.
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Freeberg, we got to find out what's going on here with the Stargate movie and TV series if they got IP permission to do this. SoftBank and OpenAI are the lead partners.
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I mean, I'm just thinking out loud. And we have to talk about where this ranks on your list of great sci-fi.
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Okay. Right up there with the Star Trek original series and the next generation. SoftBank and OpenAI are the lead partners with Oracle and MJX. Also participating, Oracle, NVIDIA, and OpenAI will build and operate the infrastructure Microsoft developed. is sort of involved, although we'll see about that. Yoshi-san was at the announcement. He's going to be the chairman.
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However, Gavin Baker and Elon both called cap on X, saying they don't actually have the money. Gavin did some back of the envelope math. And of course, as always, Sam and Elon have been spicy in the replies. Sam is hurt. Elon is dunking. It's just their relationship is so fluid.
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Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella jumped into my thread with Elon saying he was good for the 80 bill and that he was ready to build other products and services and that was what was important. What do you think here, Thomas? Are you an investor in OpenAI, I guess? Let's get that out there. Or in XAI, just so we know where you're coming from here if you're talking your book. I am an investor in OpenAI.
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I think you framed it perfectly. And since you bring up ride sharing and the 80% there, I really think that's an important thing to take a moment to settle on because in that case, you didn't have Uber being challenged by... Google, Microsoft, and Elon Musk, you know, at the same time in a digital product as opposed to a real-world product.
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And so, you know, when I use Gemini or XAI and ChatGPT and I use them all daily and Claude, the difference between the products right now is really narrow. And I think, you know, if the equivalent would be somebody who had 100 million cars on the road already competing against... Uber, which doesn't exist. or didn't exist at the time.
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So that I think is the, the way I look at this as a slightly different type of race. I do believe the chat GPT franchise has some is worth something. But I think enterprise folks, when I talked to them want the open source product, most of all. So anyway, I think it's still anybody's. I think it's anybody's game right now. And I don't know how you get a return on 500 billion invested in this.
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That's the other thing. And I don't know if that's the real number free, but what do you think?
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Correct. Yeah. What did Michael Saylor think of this when you saw Michael Saylor at the, um, at the, you know, I met, I met Michael CFO, wonderfully nice guy.
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It was definitely, yeah, put together with haste. You know what I mean? Yeah, you got that sense.
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You know, I think people are playing to what Trump likes, which is a big number, and which is his influence on growing the number. So there was specific details where Amasa said, you know, you, I told you 100 billion, you challenged me to get two, I came back with five, right?
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And so this is the sort of Trump ethos is, hey, we're going to swing for the fences in a way, you know, you can be critical of it and be like, well, Trump's a BS artist or whatever. Or if you're from Silicon Valley, you can say, hey, listen, he's moonshotting it. He's going to just shoot for the stars and get the moon.
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So if these guys wind up spending $50 billion or $100 billion, it makes us more competitive, more power to them.
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I have no insight either, but- I do think if you were going to be critical of Trump that he was putting his thumb on the scale for any one company or individual, this shows that he's not. It's an open platform. The Trump administration is an open platform. Highest bidder gets to come to the White House.
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Whoever spends the most, whoever buys the most military, you know, buys the most ammunitions from us, you're going to get your time in the White House. This is a capitalist country and this is the greatest one in the world. Equal opportunity. Equal opportunity.
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Here are the besties. Let's be honest, guys. Even in all your bitterness, Freeburg, you felt the love at this moment when we were all back together. Did you not?
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Is my interpretation of that that we didn't have factories? We didn't have factories, so we didn't need as much power? What's the reason we didn't invest or we didn't need to?
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So no factories equals no need for additional electricity. Now the new factories are H100 factories.
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In your analysis, Thomas, can we do this without nuclear?
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Can we catch up without nuclear? Okay.
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So handsome, that Diego.
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This was the crypto ball.
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It was a large number of people there. I was shocked at the number of people at the CryptoFox. Oh, it was huge. Next level.
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The thing that I noticed about that chart... is the trend line. I mean, look at how fast they're building these. And this is where, you know, I don't know what government incentive we need to create or what red tape has to be moved here. But if we can't build, you know, multifamily housing in some states, like this nuclear is going to really need to, we're going to have to
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figure out a way to change that trend line, Friedberg, yeah? I mean, what would it take to build these nuclear power plants at an accelerated rate?
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So we have the tech, we have the physics, we have the will, we have the talent, we have a blocker, and the blocker is regulation. And that regulatory blocker needs to have leadership in government to remove it. Am I summarizing correctly here?
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Look, it's the founder of Uber next to the third investor in Uber and the founder of Cloud Kitchens next to the investor in Cloud Kitchens.
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Chamath or Thomas, what's the downside? to removing the regulation and going for it and building this extra capacity. Can we define any possible downside?
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That's a valid concern. If there is any resistance to this, Thomas, what would be on the top of that list? Just theoretically, how could anybody want to block this? What would be the resistance?
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I think it's a very astute point. Hey, Chamath, I don't know if you've been watching Netflix, but I am a shareholder and I am delighted. I don't know what's going on over there, but they seem to be getting their subs right. And that disgracia of a fight seems to have somehow driven the stock price up. And there's some strategy that's working over there.
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Maybe you could just riff on it for a moment. I have the opposite take. Okay.
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You better light. Oh, this was great. Also at Peter Thiel's house. Yeah. That was great.
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So, cause and correlation aside. It's obviously correlated. This is not causal.
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Netflix is not causing depression.
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What do you think, Thomas? Opioid for the masses or just the golden era of television?
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The former roommate of Obama.
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Yeah, I wholeheartedly agree. And I think you have to schedule these things. You have to make it a permanent part of your life, playing poker on a certain night of the week, doing certain things on the weekend with your kids, having certain rituals. You know, the real damage to our kids is not that the screens are damaging them, it's that it's replacing time.
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I think what you were alluding to there, Thomas, this anxious generation, as Jonathan Haidt, and we had a great interview with him, myself and Freeberg in the All In interview series, That is what's happening. Kids are substituting, whether it's TikTok or Netflix or YouTube time, for time with their friends, time doing physical activities.
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So you really just have to limit the screen time so that those other things and the boredom can emerge. And we will be having a talk in the coming years about dopamine. It is something that these algorithms have gotten really good at doing, which is firing your dopamine.
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Look, you see the barricades in the right there?
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Every time you swipe that TikTok, every time you get to the cliffhanger in a series or, you know, a Mr. Beast video, not singling anybody out, he's just a master of it as well. They're just all really good at giving you that hook, that amazing moment. And musicians are doing this now too with the hooks, and then the hooks go on TikTok.
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The dopamine addiction, when you get burnt out late at night, getting those dopamine hits, the next day you feel depressed. Then you go to a doctor and the doctor said, oh, well, you have depression. So here's your Wellbutrin or here's whatever the, I don't know what the things are of the moment. I'll just tell you what I focus on and what I focus on with my family.
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Sleep hygiene, diet, exercise, meditation. Do these four things and you will reverse these trends. You don't need to, I mean, listen, I don't want to tell you what to do.
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You know what? Try it. Get the, and listen, I'm not talking in my own book here.
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Get the Calm app. It has a bunch of stuff for kids.
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Hey, Thomas, thanks for coming on the show. Great first appearance here as a bestie. We'd love to have you back.
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No, this is not the Broadcom we're all thinking of from the telecom era, is it?
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Yeah.
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Hey guys, breaking news story coming across my feed. I don't know if you can pull this up, Nick, but there's a video trending on the internet. Apparently an executive order has just gone across the president's desk and it was delivered by none other than A gentleman named David Sachs. Now there's a name I haven't heard in a long time.
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Look at this. What? He's using a Sharpie there to sign these executive orders? Oh, Sachs gets to keep the pen. There it is. An executive order. I love how he holds him up. It's so great.
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Oh, your reaction to my I think this is great.
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And he's going to have- You're talking about stable coins specifically?
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The entire country knows that we need to win the AI race. The numbers are the numbers. You put up a chart like that, Thomas, and there's only one way for us to win, and that's to build more nuclear power plants. And so I think he's just got to hammer this through, and let's see who tries to stop it.
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I don't know if AOC or Elizabeth Warren, Pocahontas, Bernie Sanders, who wants to jump in front of this Trump train right now, but I think you'll get slaughtered. If only there was somebody who could comment on this executive order. That's what I need. You know, Chamath, if I had the bat phone, if I could call somebody, Who would you call, Jason?
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I don't know. You know, my saxipoo was always on speed dial. We used to hang in between. We'd have these great battles here on the pod. Then we'd go play chess together. We'd go have some drinks at the battery. But, you know, that was a different era. And, you know, I don't got my boy anymore. He's busy. Oh! Do we got everybody? Thanks for tuning into the all in podcast.
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It looks really good. It was incredible. He was getting stopped every two minutes. It was unbelievable.
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I'm your host, Jason Calacanis. We will see you next time.
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We miss you, buddy. Were you just in the Oval Office?
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First time in the Oval Office. Let me ask you a question. Was that your first time in the Oval?
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Well, tell us, what are the vibes and what's it like to go in to the Oval Office and to have that executive order signed? Tell us what the moment was like and then tell us what's in the executive order.
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And the last one is to build a science council. I don't know if everybody's familiar with that. So maybe you could just describe what that is generally for the audience.
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Well, if you need a recommendation for somebody for the council, I know somebody who is extremely well versed on science. He's got a broad array of science knowledge. Hear, hear. Yeah, I have an idea. Then we could have two besties in and around the White House. Hey, well, you know, thanks for including us in so many aspects of the weekend. And the audience really wants to know.
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What are the chances we get Sachs back on the pod now and again in 2025? And we do appreciate the sacrifice you're making. We're doing it right now. But audience is, you know, not going to just accept this little drop in here. They want to know what's the long term plan for David Sachs and the pod.
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All right. Well, this is our appeal to DJT to let you come on and just chew the fat. And maybe there's some upside to it for him.
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It was an off-the-record dinner. Let's talk all about it. There was an interesting moment, which even Friedberg had to recognize, which was we went around and said, hey, what podcast are you listening to? Which ones are your favorites? We went out in the room and I got to tell you, you know what your podcaster's favorite podcast is?
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All right, everybody, welcome back to the number one business, finance, technology, science podcast in the world. This is The Place. where we call balls and strikes, where we tell the truth, where there is zero censorship. Every week, we tell you about the truth behind the most important stories.
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Oh.
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We miss you so much.
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No, I wish they had a fixed camera on them the whole time. I wanted to see the reaction shots.
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Well, kudos to them for coming out and keeping the tradition. Yeah.
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I've had Brendan on This Week in Service a couple times. He's the guy who fought... for Starlink over wasting $5,000, $10,000, $20,000 per home to install broadband. I mean, this guy's a hero. And he did that when he was in office under Biden and all that crazy corruption and grift.
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Well, Freeberg wants to know if you could assign his new Tesla. He wants you to sign it with that pen. He wants you to autograph it. So when you get back to the Valley, you can start doing autographs with that all around.
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Only the president's allowed to use it. Okay, well, put it somewhere safe, okay? Don't lose the pen. You've got to put it in a glass box or something. And, Sax, there's thousands of commenters who are just begging for you to come back. Do you have a message to your legions of commenters?
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Go back to work here and save America.
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Listen, we wish you great success. We miss you greatly. And we thank you for the service to the country. We wish you all the best as you go handle two of the most important issues for our country, AI, and help advise our president on cryptocurrency as well.
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And PCAST, yes, of course. And PCAST as well.
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Yes.
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Thank you, Thomas.
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And I'm going to order the $95 Dober Sol.
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Your tips included in this.
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All right, here's a couple of my picks. This is me with somebody who's going to be in the administration. I'm not big on politics, but- Tulsi Gabbard is so- Tulsi Gabbard.
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Well, she came up to me and you can always tell who the real fan is. And she came up and she said, I just want to tell you, J. Cal, I am a huge fan of the pod. I love what you do. I love the balance you bring to the program. She really liked new details about the podcast. And so I wanted to get a picture with her. So as a joke, I said to her, do you want to take a selfie?
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We point out who the heroes are and who the villains are, who are the delightful ones and who are the disgracia. With me again on this week's program, the cackling chairman dictator, my guy, Shemoth Paliha. Tia, how you doing? How is your victory lap? How was your victory?
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I said, I'm okay with the selfie. She goes, I was going to ask. I was like, no, I'm preemptively asking. We took it together.
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She is. I think she's going to be great. I like her a lot. She's such a star.
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So yeah, that was us just tearing it up after the YouTube party where we hung out with Sundar and Neil from YouTube. They've been very good to us. And then here's one more, I guess.
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Oh, there's me and the Presidente of Twitter. And yeah, this is the podcast crew at the free press party.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Did she feather your bangs and blow your hair out? She did. She gave you a blow, didn't she?
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
It turns out that that's not entirely true because what it left behind was nearly 163 million dead trees. Dead, like gone. And so you would say, well, those things should have been removed.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And the problem is that then there's this California Environmental Quality Act, CEQA, hopefully I'm pronouncing this right, and a whole bunch of these other regulatory policies that limited the ability of local governments and fire management to clear these dead trees and vegetation. And I think that that's a really big deal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And when you double click on that, here's where you find the real head scratcher, okay? Multiple bills, AB 2330, AB 1951, AB 2639, all rejected by the Democrat-controlled legislator, or worse, vetoed by Governor Newsom. that would have exempted these wildfire prevention projects from CEQA and other permitting issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Then there were other bills to try to minimize the risk of fires by burying power lines underground. SB 103, as an example, went nowhere, didn't even get to the governor's desk. So I'm just a little bit at a loss to explain these two bodies of data. One is everybody can see that these events are happening. Southern California lived through this exact type of moment just six years ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
All the bills that are meant to prevent this are blocked or vetoed. This is the ultimate expression of negligence and incompetence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jason, what did California learn from this? What did Gavin Newsom implement based on what happened here? What did the city of Los Angeles implement based on what happened here? I want to just specifically know the answer to those two questions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Good. How are you? What are you wearing exactly?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Why are you speaking in Elizabethan English?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Okay. No, but that's a blow dryer. Just, yes, right? She blow dry your hair?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I don't think this is to blame. If all of a sudden, because of DEI, 70% were physically incapable of carrying out the task, and that's why these fires grew, maybe you could make the claim that it is a DEI problem. I do agree with Friedberg that the thing that these public institutions need to do a better job of is being very clear about what their North Star is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think the North Star for the fire department is to save people's lives and put out fires. I think the North Star for the police service should be to save people's lives and to hold criminals responsible and get them off the streets. and you should hire the people that allow you to do that job the best.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
The thing to keep in mind is that there were probably 20 or 30 people interviewed to be fire chief. It's not her fault that she was selected. The real question is, what was she mandated to focus on once she got the job? And I think what you see in all of these interviews is I don't think that she all of a sudden after growing up through the fire service had this DEI bent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think typically what happens is it becomes an institutional directive. It guides your compensation, it guides your recognition, and so you do it. It's sort of what Charlie Munger says, show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome. The entire public service is riddled with this. The entire private service is riddled with this, which is that we've lost the script about what is important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So it's yet another example. She's probably quite a capable person who, if was just allowed to focus on fighting fires and saving people's lives, would probably do a good job. But if you had to add all these other things that are not germane to that task, then people will get frustrated and projected onto her.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
All of that said, though, I think you got to go back to how did these fires start? How did they grow out of control? And again, I think that these wins didn't come out of nowhere in the sense that they caught everybody off guard. This has happened before. That area has gone through this exact moment Yes. There were laws that were proposed. They were vetoed. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So that even if you could have controlled it, then you see certain developers like Rick Caruso who were able to protect the buildings that he was responsible for because he took proactive and protective measures. Could those proactive and protective measures not be taken more broadly through LA County? Of course they could have. Why were they not?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Let me ask a very specific question. How much money, and we know the answer to this, how much money did the government of California spend poorly, as it turns out, on homelessness? It was about $21 billion and illegal immigrants. I don't know what the final number is there, but I suspect in the tens of billions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
If you reappropriated those dollars to these kinds of protective mechanisms in these areas, what would the outcome have been? Maybe there still would have been a fire. Maybe there would have been damage. But it's hard for me to believe it would have been as bad as it is right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
While you've been gallivanting and being a dilettante, your original adopted home state is burning to the ground.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
You're so right. I mean, when are we going to get tired of all this late stage progressivism? It's like these litany of excuses. The people that are in charge have failed us yet again. Exactly. We have wasted so much money on so many things that don't move the needle. And then the things that they needed to do, they didn't do. And then they point the finger at climate change. It's a joke.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Yeah, that's not sustainable. So you can't tell what the quality of the haircut's like because you're never going to do that again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Let me maybe bring something that ties these three things together, but it builds on critically what Cyan said. There are so many people here that are good, hardworking people that lost their homes. For many of these folks, it could be the most single and only financially securing asset that they have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
For other people, those that are family age, they have kids now beyond the financial damage that are totally displaced. Where will these folks go?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
There was a comment by Adam Carolla, a commentary, where he said, the real test, to Cyan's point, will be how they internalize and metabolize this because it now affects them personally and they have to go and wait three years to build building permits to rebuild. Now, that's assuming that they can even get a reasonable amount of insurance coverage, which touches Freeburg's point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
This is the real tragedy. That is the actual tragedy multiplied by 120,000 or 200,000 families. And the real question is how much of that was completely avoidable. And I think there is a reasonable amount of it that could have been. That's what really sucks. And that's where you cannot take your finger off the scale and forget.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So then you promoted the tweet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
No, you know the answer. You know the answer. Taxpayer. Taxpayer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Well, I mean, should's a very strong word. The cap on the insurance reimbursement is about 3 million is my understanding. David, you can tell me if I'm wrong, but I think that's right. The houses in the Palisades are anywhere from, call it 1 million on the low end to maybe 40 or 50 million on the high end.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Right, but the median is probably more instructive, which is probably seven or eight million. Yes. My point is that folks will get less than half their home value back. They're going to have to come up with some amount of money to then rebuild. But the cost of rebuilding a 7,000 square foot house in the Pacific Palisades is probably at least 1,000 square foot. So that's 7 million of cash.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So now all of a sudden, these people have to come up with a lot of money. Exactly. And that's post-tax money. So you might as well double it because California is just so egregiously burdensome in terms of taxes. So the individual homeowner is not going to be in a position to rebuild.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think that the liabilities of the insurance claims are going to be so massive that the state's going to look to the federal government to bail them out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jason, you want to tell people about Cyan's background?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
No, I understand that. Then this is why, because if you get the blow and it looks good in the blow. Just say blow out, please. Just say blow out. It's a four word. Why? What are we, six?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Let me ask you guys a question. Disgraceful. What do we do?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think we need to have a wholesale replacement of the people that govern the state of California. It's just not working. Period. Full stop. And I think that the citizens that live in California need to do some real soul searching. It is beyond party politics.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So I think what has happened in California is people vote for whatever vessel has the name Democrat beside their name or Republican beside their name. And I think that you have to go back to first principles and do a better job of picking the people to represent us because the people that are in positions of power just don't fundamentally know what they're doing. They're not capable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And the fact that then what we have to deal with are sort of lies and distractions to excuse incompetence, I think is unacceptable. I think we pay way too high of a price. And like I said, you are now dealing with hundreds of thousands of families whose entire lives have been totally disrupted and ripped away.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And I hope that we learn something from this because we didn't learn from it eight years ago. And we clearly didn't learn from it when a different natural disaster in North Carolina. Will we find out that folks said, hey, guys, is there an outlier natural disaster event? Obviously, it's not going to be the same thing in North Carolina, but could a different form of something happen here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
What could it be? Are we prepared? I'm sure we'll find out that they didn't do that. Maybe they had different meetings and they were about other total distractions or things that just didn't matter. So this is what we need to do. We, as a populace in this state, need a reset. Otherwise, we deserve what we get. Bingo.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
A little bit, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Well, thanks. That's a very nice... Let me try. Cyan is a prolific angel investor. Correct. I just said that. She was a part of Founders Fund. Oh, right. She runs a seed fund called Long Journey Ventures. Okay. Some of her hits include SpaceX, Anduril, Density, Postmates, Niantic, which is the makers of Pokemon Go, and Jason's favorite startup, Uber. Uber.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I would start by saying I think he's a phenomenal businessman. I mean, I think the results speak for itself. But I also think that that is exactly what explains the shift. In many ways, he had to make that shift. I think it's fair to say that in the Obama and Biden administrations, when the winds were blowing towards censorship, they were part of that machinery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And that was the value-maximizing function for Facebook shareholders in that time. Because if you push back against that, it's not clear what would have happened to Facebook in other ways. And so I think the decision, whether he morally agreed with it or not, almost didn't matter. It's the leadership of the country in which I operate is telling me it's going to go this way. I go that way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Once the Biden and Obama administration sort of went to the wayside, there's a very interesting picture that Donald Trump put in his book. And I just, I sent it to Nick. And I think it sort of explains the last week's events relatively well. So I'll just read it. This is a picture of him sitting in the Oval, and it says, Mark Zuckerberg would come to the Oval Office to see me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
He would bring his very nice wife to dinners, be as nice as anyone could be, while always plotting to install shameful lockboxes in a true plot against the president in J. Cal all caps. Okay. Shout out to the president. He told me that there was nobody like Trump on Facebook, but at the same time, and for whatever reason, steered it against me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
We are watching him closely, and if he does anything illegal this time, he will spend the rest of his life in prison, as will others who cheat in the 2024 presidential election. Now, that's what he put in the book. And then he was asked about this quote. At a recent press conference, Nick, do you have the link to that? He's colorful, Freeberg. Did you notice? Donald Trump, a little bit colorful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Essentially, Trump was asked about Zuckerberg's move to free speech. And he was asked, you know, do you think it was because of your...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
But again, the lens that I would put on this is now the winds are blowing in a different direction. And I do think it's the value maximizing function. I think Elon didn't make a value maximizing function. He made a moral decision. He did it when it was unpopular and where the winds were clearly blowing in the opposite direction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Now that those winds have changed and it's clear Trump won in early November, the decisions you make in January are more reflective of the new conditions on the field coming into the inauguration. But I do think it's the smart value maximizing decision yet again for Facebook shareholders. And I think it begets a broader point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think the thing is when you see Elon operate, he's a complete outlier in many dimensions. But I think the one dimension where it matters the most is that he acts morally and in the best interests of what he believes humanity benefits from. He's always done it. He was willing to torch $44 billion when he bought Twitter in order to do it. And so he does these things from his own perspective.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I don't think there's any other CEO that leads this way. And I don't think they should necessarily. I do think that, you know, Mark's a good person, but his intimate feelings should be known by his wife, his children, his friends, his family. I don't think we as shareholders have any right to know necessarily. Elon is different.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And I think it creates an expectation that maybe we'll get that from everybody else. But I wouldn't conflate everybody else with him. So I think that this is a smart business decision. It makes a ton of sense. And as you can see, he was basically told to do this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
But I mean, it's a smart business move. I think if you're a meta shareholder, I think you're happy to see it. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Well, hold on, that's not fair. That's not fair. You don't know because, again, what I'm saying is... I said based on my estimation. No, but Jason, what I'm trying to say is... Elon shares who he is in a 360 degree way with the world. So we know where he stands. And all I'm saying is what Mark does or doesn't believe really isn't known to us. It's probably known to his wife and his family.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And his board. I doubt his board even knows actually.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Not popular, Jason, necessary for maximizing his business in that moment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
How about this, guys? However we got here, we're here, and we should all be happy that we're here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
What I'm saying is if you get a haircut and you get a blow, it's very hard for you to know. No, but I'm serious. It's very hard for you to know what it's going to look like the next day when you take a shower and when you don't, you know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Yeah, I'll take the win. And we just kind of move forward. Top of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Because you can judge a person when they're put under pressure to make the right decision. I think what Jason is expressing is sort of what I was trying to say, and I probably said it poorly. I think there are some of us who look at the way that Elon runs himself and his companies, okay, as a sort of world-beating technology CEO. And then that sort of sets the bar.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
But I think that that bar is impossible to meet. And I think part of it is because of Elon's genius. The other part of it is his success. The other part of it is his influence. But there's an element, Jason, of fundamental moral risk-taking that he takes that has been rewarded over and over again that no other CEO has had to make. And when they have, they've largely failed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And so I understand where you're coming from, but I would give a lot of folks the benefit of the doubt here and say... It's not clear what they believed then versus what they believe now, but the destination is very good. And we're in a better place for society. And hopefully we can maintain these norms independent of who's in charge after Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Seven or eight years ago, Jason approached Cyan and I and said, hey, guys. Harvey Weinstein has asked me to make a show. Yes. True story. No, it's a true story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Oh, dude. Take it down a notch. Cyan, myself, and Jason went to someplace in the city and we taped a... We taped an episode. I have it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
The first episode?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I don't have much of an opinion on that, to be honest. I think that sort of along the lines of what I said on the prediction show, I think that Waymo and Tesla are going to run away with this market, and I think it's going to force a bunch of consolidation in the traditional auto OEMs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think the interesting thing is that they really doubled down and created a pretty decent test bench for robotics. I thought that was pretty interesting. So I think that reinforces what a lot of smart people, including what Freeberg and Gavin also spoke about, just in terms of the long-term future for robots. I think that that was cool. I was a little confused by the low-end PC.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I don't understand what the point of that is. Maybe it like creates some crazy deep end market where you can buy GPU and then contribute it to some distributed network and allow some distributed workload to run on that, I guess. I don't know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Yeah, I guess the point is a toy to do what? Because if you're trying to do inference, like everything is telling us that we are reaching the limits of training. And- That's an LLM though. Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
It was very awkward because afterwards they approached Cyan and I to do the show. Without me. Without Jason. And so we had to, we had to decide. Friends like me and Cyan. Ha! Who needs enemies? We decided our friendship was more important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Let me get to it. Yeah, yeah. So in this world of AI that we know it today, there's training and there's inference. And right now we think that there's training that's at a limit. And so now the market shifts to inference. So if you're going to buy this jacked up personal computer, what are you going to use it for? My suspicion is some sort of test time compute use case.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
which is an inference use case. But it's not clear to me why that's a better solution than all of the AI accelerators plus tensors that are now just prolifically being exposed to the market, whether it's Amazon exposing what they've done, whether it's Google exposing what they've done, a whole litany of startups exposing what they've done. So I was just confused. I don't really know
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
what the whole point is. But like I said, the robotics thing was interesting if the market develops in the way that they think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I mean, I thought it was really interesting, and I was just caught off guard at how the media tried to portray it as Trump being Trump. Goofy, whatever, colorful. But I think like what I've realized, even with the California fire thing, the guy has this prescient way of, he may not say it in the way that it works for some people, but he's just really on top of this stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So I just said Nick a thing. So I started to learn a little bit more about why he wants to take over Greenland. And it really comes down to one very basic idea here. Because of climate change and other things, the Arctic ice shelf is melting. And the more and more it melts, it opens up a shipping lane in the northern passage for a lot of critical goods.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And so if you had some sort of strategic agreement with Canada and Greenland, you effectively have this monopoly control over something that could become as important as the Panama Canal. And so I think if you look across the world, The control of maritime shipping lanes becomes this really critical strategic military and economic asset.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And so the reason why he's trying to find a way to initiate some sort of a discussion between Greenland and Canada is exactly this reason. And I think it's sort of like a bargaining gambit, the way that he started. But it's really smart that he's trying to get this done for the United States of America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Because meanwhile, what you have is China militarizing very aggressively, Russia militarizing very aggressively. And what you don't want to have happen is those two countries take control of that northern passage as the ice sheet melts. So I just thought that was important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
You know what's smart? I mean, let's give Trump credit. What's so smart is like somebody was doing this work, got it in front of him, and he was smart enough to say, hold on a second, this is really important. Let me tweet it. And then the way that he initiates it, though, gets even more attention because if he basically tweeted,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Hey, guys, I have this really interesting idea to gain more leverage in a northern maritime shipping lane. Nobody would have paid attention. Absolutely not. Nobody would have. And now we're all talking about it. And now there's an opportunity for millions of people to understand why and be supportive of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
But Jason, that's not what he's doing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Right. We somewhat, yeah, we somewhat abandoned all that in Greenland, but there is a lot of that infrastructure still sitting around here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
How do you explain the pyramids?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So somebody sent me an email. Oh. And he said what they did was they flooded the area. And then they floated the rocks into place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Mine was better. Mine was better.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
It's great.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I mean, I'm not very sympathetic to the, there were 100 mile an hour winds, not because it's not true, but there's been enough modeling that we know that these kinds of outlier weather events are happening in greater and greater frequency.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Nick, maybe you can find this and just put it up here, but remember that crazy apocalyptic video of that exact same part of Southern California in 2018 burning to the ground? Can we just look at that, all of us collectively? Because that was six years ago. This is not like it was a distant memory from 100 years ago. We knew in 2018 that these types of- Oh, the Sepulveda Pass.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So this idea that we were just lollygagging around and got caught off guard by 100 mile an hour winds to me is completely not an acceptable answer. We knew in 2018 that these things could happen. We knew across the rest of the United States that these outlier weather events were happening in greater and greater frequency.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
If you weren't sure, you saw most of the insurance companies try to dump Southern California homes fire coverage three months before this event happened. So all this data was in the realm of the knowable. And then when you double click and you get into a little bit more of the details, there's a level of incompetence bordering on criminal negligence here that we need to get to the bottom of.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So I'll just give you a couple of facts. In the 1950s, the average amount of timber, so wood that was harvested in California, was around 6 billion board feet per year. In the intervening 70 years, that shrank to about 1.5 billion board feet. And so you'd say, okay, well, that's a 75% reduction. We must be making a very explicit stance on conservation.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
It's going to be the Miriam Adelsons of the world, the Elon Musks of the world. And that's very different than how I think the Kochs used to decide things. Do you think there's too much money in politics now, Gavin?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
It feels like it's blurry.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think the biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be dollar-denominated stablecoins. I'll make two points. In 2024, two critical things happened. The first is that stablecoins essentially became uncoupled from crypto volatility, and it started to be used for wholesale useful functions in running businesses. And there's an image here that starts to show that.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So independent of crypto volatility, what you saw were stable coin usage just rising up and to the right. That's an incredibly important decoupling that happened in 2024. The second, and this data is still just trickling in, but it's an incredible stat. Stablecoin usage at the end of the second quarter of 2024 was about 1.1 billion transactions that summed to $8.5 trillion of transaction volume.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
If you compare that to Visa, over the same period, it was more than double Visa's transaction volume. So I think what we have now is something that has fundamentally crossed point of no return. Similar to how last year I thought that the big trend was going to be Bitcoin in 2024, I would say that the big trend in 2025 is stablecoin usage.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
No, no. This is a shout out to my friend, Ruben Ostlund, who's the director of a bunch of really amazing movies, including the one behind me, Force Measure. There you go.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think we're going to finally attack the duopoly of Visa and MasterCard. I think you're going to see an innumerable number of use cases that sit and use stablecoin rails. I think when Donald Trump becomes president, I think you're going to see him go after incredibly high credit card transactions and costs. You're already seeing cracks in consumer credit anyways, because of these high APRs.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
All of this stuff is going to come to a head in 2025, I think, and I think stablecoins could quadruple or quintuple by the end of 25. I think it's just going to be an enormous market.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I don't think I'm qualified to say how it should, but I think the point is that there are these immutable logs that sit in between and on either side of all of these transactions. And so I think the knowledge is there and there are a whole bunch of third party services that add that intelligence layer. I think the thing to really question is if you just took 300 basis points of drag and
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
out of the global economy, how valuable would that be? And I think it would be valuable just in the United States alone to the tune of a trillion dollars. So the idea that you wouldn't do it at this point is somewhat quizzical to me. So I just think that the economic justification for this now is just so profound.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Jeremy Allaire, I mentioned, by the way, that I had this small little product that I exposed to the world, which is just our research. And we sit it on top of Substack. Again, the tools aren't very good. And we use Stripe. And Jeremy reached out to me and he's like, I'll just rebuild all of your payment rails on using US dollar stable coins.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And it's a no brainer because I'm spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in transaction costs that now I can just save and use to hire somebody else or just pay the team more.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think you're totally right. The reason I said that last year was it was pretty clear to me at the time, and the NBA was the canary in the coal mine, that there was a viewership problem in professional sports. And specifically in the NBA, the game has devolved into essentially rebounds and dunks or three-pointers.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And the issue with that is that it becomes just meaningfully less interesting to watch. At the same time, because of the fact that the TV deals are really what determines the discounted value of these sports franchises, the TV deal was so enormous that it creates no
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
reliable rivalries anymore because people will hopscotch teams almost every year because the compensation that they can get is just so obscene, quite honestly. And I think what happens is sports will have a decent run until the next TV deals get done.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think if you, for example, take pharma ads outside of TV, so like that pool shrinks, if you have less viewership, and so you can sell the remaining ads less effectively because there's just fewer of them and then there's fewer buyers and it shrinks yet again. then the dollar pool that the television networks and the streamers are going to be willing to pay for sports will go down.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And the group that will be the most price sensitive are exactly who you said, Gavin, meaning the non-trophy buyers. So when I bought into the Warriors, I bought it purely as a trophy asset, and I was price insensitive. But I agree with you that now that you have the PE firms on the cap tables of these sports franchises, Those folks are all DCFs. Those folks are all Excel models.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I don't think that they're buying things for emotion. I don't think they've grown up thinking, I want to own this thing, not using institutional LP dollars. So I just think that's why I said that in 24.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I got a call. I got a call. I think it was from the Warriors or it's from the NBA. Something to the effect of, this guy that was sitting in your seats was almost kicked out. And I said, excuse me? Because I knew it. It was the Knicks game, in fairness. And he was like jawboning our own players.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
It was unbelievable.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Bogut told him to basically go pound sand. He basically did.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
He's one of our good friends. So that's why it's so funny.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Gavin wanted to make a point about what I just said.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
precarious, but I don't know what the percentage drawdown from here will be. But I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the Mag7 will be in the trillions of dollars. And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I made a very strategic decision to stop snowboarding so I could learn to ski with my kids. It is so hard to learn how to do something in your 40s. No, I mean, if you've never done it. But I do appreciate what you and your brother did for me last season. I learned a couple things. Yeah, you were out there with the Black Bomber. My third season was great.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But I am a little bit worried, and I tweeted this a few days ago, about just the general concentration of the top seven, eight, nine, 10 companies in the indices. I think it's approaching 40%. And I think that when you look at these historic concentrations, they've generally foreshadowed a big drawdown. And unfortunately, I don't see how you can sort of inoculate yourself from that risk.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So independent of the quality of these companies, because I think these companies are exceptional businesses, I do think you've just had too much concentration. And I think it is a setup to retrade and give back. And in that, it could even be 10%. But 10% in the MAG-8 will be a couple trillion bucks. And so on an absolute dollar basis. One or two percent would be a lot.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Would you guys add, just a question, would you guys add the traditional consulting companies then to the mix as well?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
That's a great one. Yeah, we think what we talked about with DeepLight. Like the Wipros, the Tatas, the HCLs, the Accentures.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Cognizance, the EMYs, all these folks that are in real trouble if that also happens. That's right. Yeah.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
The thing to keep in mind is like cost plus is a fancier way of saying time and materials. And time and materials is a fancy way of saying human labor arbitrage. And I think that all of that stuff will get extremely scrutinized in 2025. Because if you are buying $800 wastebaskets and $9,000 umbrella hangers because of time and materials and all of this other
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
crazy stuff that's in the system, and all of that gets washed out, then a lot of these folks and their business models will get put under severe stress.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
That hasn't happened yet. Totally riffed on that one. I think that this is the year that we will see the collapse of the traditional auto OEMs. And I think that the The deal that happened at the end of 2024 with Honda, Nissan, I think is a bit of a signal to what the industry has to do, which is to go through a massive wave of consolidation.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think that Tesla is just in an incredible position with the quality of their vehicles and the quality of their software and the quality of their autonomy with FSD. So I suspect that after a couple of more meaningful product releases, it's just going to trigger the realization by the public capital markets that these auto OEMs are uninvestable.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think the result of that will be a wave of auto mega mergers.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah, that's the way to do it. Same, same, same. End at 12.15, have lunch, relax.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But I think this is going to touch like the European OEMs are in real trouble. You know, what does Volkswagen do? It's not clear. What does Stellantis do? It's not clear. These are all businesses that are effectively melting icebergs. And so, you know, typically melting iceberg businesses, when they get put under pressure from smart investors like Gavin and his ilk, they're forced to merge.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
It's just the cost of capital. Are you short these, Gavin?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Jason, would you like to announce you bought the domain?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Gavin, do you have any idea what word he's even saying when he says that? Disgraciad.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
You own the domain? You don't even know?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Did you see this thing where, is it Logan Paul is fighting Conor McGregor in India and Conor McGregor is going to get $250 million? What? What? Yeah. It's like a whole tourist thing. Is it boxing or is it MMA? PR stunt. I think it's boxing and it's meant to sort of like bring a bunch of tourists into India to show them the country. But it's a quarter of a billion dollars to Conor McGregor.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
How do we get in on this grift?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
What do you mean we didn't get there? Independent centrists won the election for Megan.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think that you're going to see a banking crisis in one of the major mainline banks.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Black Swan? Well, I think if I had to kind of build the... the case for this, it would be along the following lines. If you added up the total indebtedness of Pax America, which is US government debt, plus corporates, plus mortgage debt, and you actually sensitize it to rates that are around, call it 5%.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
what you quickly realize is on a dollar basis, that because the amount of debt that we have has just massively exploded, that 5% rates today on 70 odd trillion dollars is actually equivalent to 10% rates 25 or 30 years ago, because we only had a fraction of that debt on a dollar basis.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah. Okay. I didn't think that it was the independents, but okay. I think independent centrists swung the election for Biden in 2020. And then I think they swung the election for Trump in 2024.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And so the pain that you feel at 5% or 6% can very quickly ripple through the economy the way that it did when rates 25 or 30 years ago were 10%. And so I think that when people look at rates, they forget the actual total dollar impact. Because when somebody, or collectively, when we have to come up with $3 or $4 trillion, how do you do that? And so I think that there is a non-trivial risk.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think it's small. This is why it's contrarian. But I think it's a risk where if you have a mark-to-market problem, if you have a credit default problem amongst the corporates or amongst enough individual consumers, what I think that happens more than anything else is that it triggers a reserve issue.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think that the reserve issue in one of these mainline banks, I have two that I think are more obvious than others, but I don't want to name them. Okay. Fair enough. I love this contrarian take. This is great.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah. Okay. Shabbat, who's your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025? My biggest political winner for 2025 are fiscal conservatives. I think that we are going to test a very important concept in 2025. And I hope it works, which is that of austerity. And the reason why austerity has to work is that the only thing left after austerity is to cut entitlements.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
What is the contrarian part of what you guys are saying? What's the contrarian part?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Socialism on the rise.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think that in doing this, we're going to figure out how much waste, fraud, and abuse exists in the United States federal government. I think that that's going to spill over to a lot of state elections. And I think that the fiscal conservatives that have been clamoring for a more restrained approach to spending will have their day in 2025.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Good pick. Great pick, in fact. What do you got, Shema? So let me preface this by saying that this is a pick that 92 times out of 100 goes to absolute zero. Okay. And six out of the remaining eight times, you make 10 extra money. And then the final two times, you make anywhere between 100 to 1,000 extra money. Okay. Sounds like big money. Okay. So this is a loser trade, okay?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But I would be long CDS. So what am I buying? I am buying insurance. I'm buying insurance... using credit default swaps, I'm buying what's called protection, that there is no default event in 2025.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Again, I'm not going to tell you which companies or what maturities, but just the general idea for me is I would like a little bit of an insurance policy in 2025 so that the men and the women that we have voted in have the chance to do their work in peace I think that there is a small chance of some volatility next year. I hope it doesn't happen.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I hope that this trade, like I said, 92 times out of 100 loses money. I hope it loses money. But if it hits, it will be the best performing asset of 2025. It will be the equivalent of Ackman buying CDS right at the beginning of the COVID crisis. How does one buy those? You have to have an ISDA. You talk to the big investment banks and they'll price it out for you.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But again, and I just want to be clear, this is not something I think will happen. It's not something I want to happen.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But I do think that if you look back in terms of just the tonnage of dollars you can make and the massive risk asymmetry that it presents to you, when you look at the concentration of the S&P, when you look at just the total gross amount of debt that we have, when you look at rates spiking, all of these things say having a little insurance may not be a bad thing. I hope I'm completely wrong.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think Gavin just absolutely nailed it. I'm going to double down on what he said. I think that there's a term that we will start to use more. I started to use it internally at 8090 over this last year in 2024, which is the software industrial complex. These are these large
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
bloated in many cases, enterprise software companies that effectively have convinced incredible numbers of organizations to spend a tremendous amount of money, essentially wrapping a bunch of heuristics and business rules around a CRUD database. And along with that, what they have perfected really is a go-to-market and sales motion.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
The golf trips, the steak dinners, we mentioned this before, what Alex Karp railed against None of those things equate to product value. And increasingly in the world of agentic software and AI, I think that you can rebuild a lot of these workflows in very efficient ways.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think the go-to-market is going to be driven by CEOs and CFOs who start to exert a little bit more pressure on their CIOs to manage spend. And in that world, I just think that these next generation AI businesses are built, frankly, an order of magnitude cheaper than the companies that they compete against.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And so even if it's just feature for feature the same, I think the software industrial complex, these old mainline traditional enterprise software companies I think you're going to start to see fissures in those businesses in 2025. So I agree with Gavin. Different words, but same result.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And the traction in less than a year, to me, is shocking. And I don't think it speaks necessarily. I think we're decent. We're very good. We have great engineers. But my 30-person engineering team, I think, does the work of 300 people. By next year, it'll be doing the work of 3,000 people. Maybe it will only grow by 10% or 20%. And the reason is we use these tools.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
We're productive to an order of magnitude that I didn't think was possible. And as a result, we're just able to price it differently. So even if it's the exact same product, its cost structure is just meaningfully lower. And so this is what I mean where the ROI calculators get blown up. All of the traditional go-to-market motions get blown up because in an RFP or in any other sales
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
environment, what you do is somebody says it's $100 and you show up and you say, 10. Okay. And at 10, it's still hugely profitable for you.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think that there are a handful of, not to overuse an overused term, but canaries in the coal mine for the end of the deep state. And I would like to point to one, which is this obscure thing called the supplemental loss ratio. And essentially what it is, is a mechanism that the banks can use to include or not include treasuries and how they calculate reserves, et cetera, et cetera.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Now, why is this an interesting thing? It's not interesting for many people. It's very arcane. But if we are unable to manage the debt situation in 2025, I think what you're going to see is maneuvering at the edges of these arcane regulations that effectively kick the can down the road. And there is a chance that that could happen to help the banks because we believe that
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
we meaning collectively America, that maybe Doge won't be as effective as it needs to be, that there's still going to need to be $10, $20 trillion of debt issuance to refinance the 10 that's maturing this year and to plug holes in the coming years. My point in all of this is we don't need to understand the details except that if we don't move the goalposts here, it is a great sign that
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
the folks that are running the show are the ones that we all elected. Okay. So that is my most anticipated trend. Small, arcane, regulatory changes that allow us to kick the can down the road, stop in its tracks. This is an example. Okay, Freeberg, you got a most anticipated trend for 2025?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
of the files that are going to get declassified and released by the Trump administration. I think it's going to be unbelievably interesting, salacious, useful, good, earnest All of the above. So the JFK files, the Epstein files, the Diddy files. The moon landing.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Who knows what they find across all of these other fringe, quote unquote, conspiracy theories that may turn out to actually have some shred of truth. But all of that, let's call it content, for lack of a better word, that gets released in 2025 by the Trump administration, I think will be incredibly interesting.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
What was our predictions for this last year?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Jimmy's show on Amazon Prime, the Mr. Beast thing, was the top unscripted drama in 140 of 180 countries.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah. Chamath, do you have a prediction market you want to put up? The Magate representation in the S&P 500 shrinks below...
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I don't know that we can make a polymarket out of it. Gavin, are there documents that you think Trump will release about the past in terms of UFOs? There must be just an entire spectrum of stuff that could be subject to FOIA if we went after it, no?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But look, let's be honest. You think that there are docs. Like there's documentation that the U.S. government has that there are UFOs, that there have been. We just can't explain it.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Wait, one last question for Gavin.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Do you think extraterrestrial life built the pyramids? Is that the most plausible explanation to the accuracy?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Conspiracy Gavin is awesome. I love him. Jason, if you're a questioning person, these things create these weird, open loops that it's hard to close in your mind.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Anyway, Freiburg's got to drive back.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Let's get it. Take care.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
The biggest political loser of 2025 is going to be progressivism. So November of last year, right after the election, I flew to London and went up to Oxford and I spoke at the Oxford Union. And my speech was a full-throated defense of MAGA. but it was mostly an explanation of manga.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And it was sort of the antidote to progressive instincts that had been riddling the Western G8 countries and was starting to basically come on young. And when you look at what's about to happen in 2025, in Canada, Justin Trudeau is going to lose massively to Pierre Polyev. In Germany, AFD looks like they will win.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
In France, if there's a deadlock and it goes into an election, more than likely Marine Le Pen is going to win. And then in the UK, where you see this unfolding child rape scandal, where allegedly upwards of hundreds of thousands of young girls over the course of 20 plus years were being raped by organizations of Pakistani Muslim men who were then not prosecuted,
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
for fears of stoking Islamophobia, as it turns out, by the current Prime Minister Keir Starmer. And if all of that comes to pass in the UK, I think you're gonna see the Labour government fall, and I think you're gonna see Nigel Farage win. So what do all of these countries look like by the end of 25? It's very much a repudiation of this class-based identity politics.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think that has enormous ripple effects all throughout the world. And so I think the biggest political loser for 2025, I think, stands to be progressivism, quote unquote, what we labeled progressivism.
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I nailed that one.
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Who lost on the Republican side more than the Koch family, do you think? I mean, explain for the audience who maybe aren't as deep into it. Well, I think essentially 2024 was the end of the Republican Party as we knew it.
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And I think what stands in its place is what I would call the MAGA reflection of a coalition of people that will be housed under the label of republicanism, which is to say that these folks aren't necessarily Republicans. These folks are believers of the MAGA philosophy. They're just using the Republican vessel in order to run their candidates and get elected.
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And in that overturning of the status quo, what you had was this one family who was at the center for the last few decades of political machinery that essentially decided candidates, that it decided agenda, that it decided policy, and that was the Koch family. And they spent an enormous amount of money
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
to get that, which they stood up, frankly, literally the day after Citizens United happened in the Supreme Court. And I think that in that lens, those billions of dollars of investment have essentially gone to zero because I don't think it means much of anything anymore. And if you look at the new class of donors who will decide quote unquote, Republican policy.
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They call them the Lisan al-Gaib, which if you watch Dune, is like he's the savior that's sent in Dune to basically save all of us.
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Right now, Jason is about to implode, Congressman.
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Steve Bannon says... He's doing a great job today as moderator. Is he?
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That's the gerrymandering cartel just to try to ruin the course.
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I have a totally different question, something more fun. The job of whip was totally romanticized after House of Cards. Is that Roman?
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Well, no, because you had Spacey in this really famous scene calling the whip and saying, when I was whipped, my job was to whip the votes. And then he was screaming into the phone, whip the votes. And I just remember this thinking, now that seems like a really cool job.
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Chinese Communist Party in the first year of this podcast. I have a lot of important people to look up to me, yes. But just the job of whip, is it as enjoyable as it sounds?
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Well, I get the sense that you're incredibly effective. You could whip the votes.
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See, you're whipping the votes.
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Last question. Last week was pretty prolific in terms of the Senate confirmation hearings that started. I think we're still waiting to figure out when Bobby is going to come up. Do you see any pushback? Who do you think... Who might not make it?
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Yeah.
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I mean, my my perspective on this is that, to your point, in the absence of somebody being compromised, it's not an ideological difference that should stop cabinet picks on either side. Whoever is the president should get to pick their team, put the team on the field. That's the mandate he was given by the people. And then the people get to vote.
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...redux and opinion. You said you listened to the fire episode that we did.
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But just general, from the outside in, as a Minnesotan looking at California, just diagnose what's going on there.
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What was your ideological change growing up in a Republican household of cops, essentially? Yeah.
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Did you agree with Biden's framing as he was leaving about this tech oligarchy?
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The wokeism? Is it the judgmentalism? Is it the sanctimonious pandering? Is it the moral grandstanding?
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But I think the other fair commentary is he's young and he's inexperienced. What I mean by leadership is...
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In your interactions with the president, did you say to yourself, gosh, what's going on here?
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Hold on. Before we talk to Doge, Eric, you were on the House Intelligence Committee. Let's talk about TikTok. Done and dusted.
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Let's go down this, pull this thread a little bit more because you said the The Democrats themselves are good people. Some of them, many of them, you know, but then the leadership you said was corrupt. So just can you help us understand who is the leadership? And then how does the corruption play out? What does the corruption look like? Well, remember, I'm on the Republican side.
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What...
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What do you think?
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Might not. Yeah. You're in the room when these things happen. There are these off the record, I guess, intelligence briefings that happen. And this was a 9-0 unanimous Supreme Court decision. It was an overwhelming majority in Congress. Can you just help us understand what needs to happen for something like those two events to happen? Just be general.
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You don't have to say specifically, obviously, and disclose anything that you know. But we're just trying to understand how does something, when it's such a rancorous Congress, which can't seem to agree on anything, or a Supreme Court, which tends to be 5-4 on every issue, finds a 9-0 and a supermajority in Congress, Can you just help us understand?
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There was an off the record or confidential briefing to the House Intelligence Committee. So you think in that meeting there was nothing that was very meaningful that was disclosed about TikTok?
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We know that there are security vulnerabilities, for example, in WhatsApp. It's riddled with stuff. So, you know, you could send a PDF before, then you could send an image. Now you can just send a message and you can root your phone. The difference is WhatsApp is owned by an American citizen. Which is to say, all these apps are compromised.
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It's just that the TikTok is owned by a Chinese owner who is out of the reach of the United States government.
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I think you guys have to separate, look, TikTok, there are three things in TikTok, okay? There's the content and the content creators. That's one thing. Then there is a network effect. And then there is the vessel, which is the app, okay? Which is the code. My very specific point of view is the content creators and the network effect can easily be replicated in other places.
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The vessel itself is corrupt. And I think if you can't technically see that, it's probably because you're not steeped enough in the technology.
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But that you're speaking to is the content and the network.
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across Meta or across X, my preference would be X, you can replicate the network effect and you can create a mechanism for those content creators who are already on those platforms anyway to shift. My point is the vessel itself is easily rooted. I told this to President Trump when we were sitting down. I was like, that phone microphone on that iPhone can get turned on remotely.
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That's the boogeyman for what it's worth that people point to, at least when you're not in D.C. Like if somebody said, who are the leadership leaders?
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You can choose what state actor wants to do it, but I will bet you, dollars to donuts, it is inconceivable to me that the NSA did not find that capability. And the reason is not because TikTok is bad or good. The reason is all of these apps are rooted. The only difference is that most of these apps are controlled by American citizens, which gives us a control mechanism, and this app is not.
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I have sympathy for them. You guys have to assume that if it is true that the CCP uses the Chinese version of TikTok as a mechanism to surveil their own people, the idea that for an extra few units of resources they wouldn't spy on the most important, powerful nation in the world, to me seems pretty illogical and dumb. They would do it.
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And separately, it's not to say that President Trump is using TikTok per se or important people, but it is true that when you have enough people use an app, And those people come into contact with other people. Like, look what happens today. How do you exchange contact information with an iPhone? You touch one another, right? There's an NFC capability to pass code from one to the other.
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I mean, I just think it's really naive, guys, for us to not assume that technology is very deterministic. There are so many good things that happen. But there are people that are paid to find every single edge and to push it because the stakes are high. And I just think that this is an assumption that we have to live with.
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That's an ideological thing.
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There is a reason why Huawei is banned in America. Yes. Security vulnerabilities were found. They don't have our best interests. And all of a sudden you think it stopped there? China gave up and said, okay, let's go watch the dance videos now. It's great. Let the Americans dance.
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Eric, tell us about how you think this reconciliation bill, the budget, it's going to be a very knockout, drag out kind of a process. We're going to hit the debt ceiling tomorrow. And so you guys are going to be back to work right away. What do you expect?
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Do you think generally that governments should generally just have less tax receipts and be forced to spend less to be more ingenious and less over-reliant on overpowering things with money?
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Some people on the Republican side, so I think it's a wonderful point. Some people on the Republican side say this is why energy is so important for us, because when we have resource independence, it actually allows us to forge and recast many of our relationships abroad that then create a very different security envelope.
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So I helped fund Jim to get that thing off the ground. Yeah, I've been out there. And going.
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But even he will tell you.
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Doing these kinds of projects in America today is almost next to impossible and the reason he was able to do it I mean he has support from folks like you which are forward-thinking But the reason was because it had already largely been built right and he said if he had tried to get it permitted Sure, and it's just a question, you know less money for the government less regulation It almost seems like sometimes if the Republicans say yay the Democrats say no and if the Democrats said yay the Republicans would say nay and
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But if you ask everybody privately, everybody agrees the government should have less. And to your point, business people should just have more of a wide berth to actually go and work.
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So your issue is, guys, just make sure we can point to people at every part of the economic spectra. But that's a very reasonable thing to say, what you're saying.
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Oh, no, hold on. You said floor. You didn't say ground. So no, I'm going to just not listen to you.
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I have a question about today. I just want to actually go back in time. today, are there any of President Trump's nominees that really give you agita? And if so, who and why?
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Give some credit if there's something inspiring. Who do you like? Give us one that inspires you and give us one that you're like... I think Rubio's going to do a great job as Secretary of State.
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Can you say more?
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What do you think about Jason's comment? Do you think that we should systematically work through a process to deport 15 million illegals?
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What do you do after that?
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Yes, go back. Please you mentioned this the house Russia investigation created a lot of yeah Talking points on both sides that I think are still lingering and in the spirit of sort of putting it to bed Any regrets about that whole process I Was there anything substantive that came out of it ultimately?
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Or was it the beginning of this more politically directed kind of action reaction, which is now why people are afraid about what happens?
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You and Adam work backwards from an outcome. Or do you think you and Adam actually just followed the facts and.
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Yeah, like what's happening in New York and whatnot What were your thoughts for as a prosecutor on? The legal veracity of some of the things that were going on to to Trump leading into this election
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So correct if no one's one of your kids were charged with a misdemeanor Would you hope that it was just prosecuted as a misdemeanor or do you think that? Folks that may not like Eric Swalwell figure out a way to now make it a felon the former. Yeah.
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What's happening in California? Give us the grade on Gavin Newsom and Karen Baxter.
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That was awesome.
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Do you view him the party leader? I do. So to your point, this was almost like a Donald Trump hostile takeover of the Republicans. Meaning if you look at the establishment rhetoric of what Republicans stood for, I don't think Trump really cared. He had a point of view and he had his own intellectual agenda and ideology. And to your point, 77 million people said, I go with that.
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Do you think that that's possible on the Democratic side as well? Do you think that there's a different ideology that needs to be born there?
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Exactly.
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Well, he took the time to understand it.
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I mean, I think he is a generational retail politician.
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And what you think reconciliation is going to look like. I mean, this is going to be a very gnarly conversation. pitch battle here. How do we get $2 trillion out of the United States budget?
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Well, actually, let's ask that question. Is two even possible? And if so, how do you think you can get $2 trillion out of it?
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I said none of that. But I think more changes are coming, Jason. Maybe to our home state of California. Let's see.
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Do you think there was a cover up freebreak? What is your intuition on that?
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Daszak, yeah.
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What is Threads?
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What's your take on this? I would like to make four points, I think, that kind of summarize my view of this. I think what happened here needs a really clear accounting because the implications are far greater than I think people realize. And I think why maybe the four of us have always been tugging on this little thread is because each of us instinctively understood that. So
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The first is, if you just look at the macro economic consequences of what COVID did and our reaction, we broke the seal. of having absolutely no accountability on massive spending, right? So there are subsidies, there are kickbacks, there are government programs that now number in the trillions of dollars a year incremental to what we were going to spend if things were the status quo.
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And the problem is that, and Freeberg has talked about this really eloquently in the past, it's creating a massive debt issue that us and our children and our grandchildren are going to have to deal with. If we had responded to this pandemic differently, those issues would not have occurred.
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If we had just kept the economy open because we understood what was going on, we would not have reacted the way that we did, and we would not have nearly as much debt as we had, and we would not have made it okay for politicians to spend trillions of dollars. That is a direct consequence of our reaction to COVID, not COVID itself.
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The second is we caused billions of people all around the world to take immaturely tested drugs. They were called vaccines. We found out that they were modestly effective at best. And then some of them were designed in some ways to manipulate our DNA, and we just don't know what the long-term impacts will be. We see some small issues of myocarditis. We see other issues of all-cause mortality.
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But the point is, we just don't know. And that would not have happened had we not rushed to force people to stand in a line and get a jab in order to get back to their normal life. That was a direct consequence, not of COVID, but of a reaction. The third is what we're realizing right now is that we had this power drunk apparatchik.
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And this is similar to the quote that Mike Pompeo made when he took over the CIA and What he found, and he said this after when he left, was there were people on the top floor of the CIA building, the seventh floor of the Pentagon, that fundamentally believed that it wasn't the Democrats nor the Republicans that ran the country, but it was them.
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And I see a similar level of arrogance here, which is this belief that they know better. And so what they did was they committed the greatest sin, which is where the coverup is way greater than the crime. And they created a setup where all of these things were amplified by their prestige, their perceived scientific knowledge,
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But what they were really doing was keeping critical information to themselves and then trying to cover it up, Jason. That is so unacceptable when you think of the broad consequences of what happened. And that's what needs to get documented. And I do think there needs to be some form of accountability for that.
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Trillions. Tens of trillions.
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I am infuriated by this. Imagine what happened in the Situation Room or the equivalent, wherever the President of the United States, all these world leaders were... coalescing to try to make decisions in that period, they all looked at this quote unquote expert. They pointed at Fauci and said, lead us out.
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And so do we not think that at any point he was thinking, how do I do this in a way where I have no fingerprints? Clearly the answer is, in fact, he was leading from a position of how will I not have any fingerprints on this? And so did we get the best advice? On the margin, I think it's pretty fair to say we could not have gotten it because he was too conflicted.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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He was figuring out how to cover up what happened as opposed to just own it and then help the world get out of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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This is nutty.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
There are examples we know. I'll just point to two. Let's just say the attempted overthrow of the Ukrainian government in 2014.
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You can go back to Iran-Contra as yet another example, and you can add gain-of-function research now, which is, again, I'll just go back to when there are these lifelong bureaucrats that believe they're above the law, that there's this sensation that they can pull the levers of power silently behind the scenes because they know better.
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And then what they're doing, as you guys said, is they are controverting the desires of the people. So whether you like President Obama or not, he's duly elected by the people. And when he says this isn't allowed, it shouldn't be allowed. And when you instantiate chaos and wars and all of this other stuff, overthrows and all of these other places that then create all these long tail effects,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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they're not done with really America support. They're done by a small group of people who think they know better. And I think that we've created that kind of a problem that needs to get fixed. And so I think that this has to be an example where you can make them an example, because otherwise it will keep happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We did it for Dean Phillips.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And there are other parts of the American bureaucracy where people are in charge of very critical and important decisions. And I suspect 99% of them are good, earnest, honest people doing the right thing for America. But it's just the law of large numbers. There will be one or two, and all it takes is one or two who get drunk with that power.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Chris Christie came on. And Chris Christie came on, although I don't think we technically did a fundraiser, but we would have. And we've asked President Biden, and we have not heard back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so unless that there's a check and balance on that dynamic, we'll have more issues of this. And as the world gets more sophisticated and we rely more on experts, I hate to say this, guys, but you have to be more skeptical of experts. As much as you think an expert is an expert, you have to fight the tendency of saying, I'm going to abdicate all of my intellect onto you and you decide.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think you have to find a way of just gut checking. And Sacks said this critical thing. If I was the president of the United States in a pandemic, I didn't need the COVID to teach me this example. But if I'm trying to solve a very technical and hard engineering problem, what I always do is I bring a cross section of people in a room
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Typically, some of them have to have disagreeing opinions and I make them intellectually fight it out. And my job is to observe. And in that, I apply my judgment. I'm not nearly as smart as them. I'm not nearly technically as trained as them, but that is a process that works.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I'm just questioning, it couldn't have happened here because as Zach said, if you basically bury the reputations of the folks that are pushing back, you could never bring them inside the room in the Oval. and have a conversation with them and say, hey, Jay, Bhattacharya, give us the red team version of what you think is happening. And that is a real problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And Chamath, would you host a fundraiser for Biden as well as Trump? Absolutely. Look, here's the thing. I am an apolitical person who has to make a difficult decision every four years. And I think most of us are like that. I don't think it's so easy to wake up in the morning and say, oh, I'm clearly a Republican or I'm clearly a Democrat. There's parts of both sides that appeal to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We talk about term limits for politicians. Maybe we actually need term limits for the administrative apparatchik that runs all these critical organizations.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so you have to make these reasoned decisions. And then that gets even more complicated, right? So the most important thing for me is get as many people on in a position to tell their version of the truth So that you can see an unfiltered version of that truth and decide for yourself. So I was really blown away when I heard Dean Phillips and Bobby.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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President Trump was really onto this because he's the one that really coined the term the deep state and went after it. And if you think about the other side, right, the people that are there,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It must be very discomforting to hear because a lot of those people are folks that worked hard, tried to go to good schools, get educated, and join an infrastructure to move a country forward because they believe in the country and the values of America. It sounds like a noble mission, right? But over long periods of time...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Most people come and go, and then there's a small cohort of folks that sort of end up ossifying and running the top parts of this permanent bureaucracy. And I think Sachs is right. They start to observe just the simple principle that all these folks come and go, yet I'm still around. President comes, president goes. Undersecretary comes, undersecretary goes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The secretary of this comes and then they go. And so they start to believe that they're really in charge. And that's where the deep state idea comes from.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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They're not wrong. Their intuition is right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'd call it evil because it was premeditated. And then, look, the point is we're supposed to have this check and balance from the media. But when the media is complicit because they like to be in those halls of power, that's where these feelings come from. I think the latest stat that I saw is I think more than 52% of Americans now believe that the mainstream media is untrustworthy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And that's a really terrible place to be, which means you're basically- Where do you get truth? You're consuming something that's just fundamentally not true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Live streamed on YouTube. We'll put the link in the show notes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I thought there's parts of both of those platforms that I agree with. There's parts that I disagree. And the same thing happened when I sat down with Vivek. I thought that I wouldn't agree with much. I ended up agreeing with a lot. There's a lot of stuff that Trump in hindsight, again, as I've said before, that he did, which was really helpful to America. And one big thing, which had he done,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I thought it would be good to talk about crypto for a couple of reasons. One is because we just had the halving at the end of April. When did that happen? The halving is where, just for folks that don't know, the way that Bitcoins are created is by solving these complex mathematical algorithms that take a lot of time and energy and money. And when you solve it, you get rewarded.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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with some number of Bitcoin. And roughly every four years, that reward gets cut in half. It's called a halving. And this week, I saw somebody who reminded me all of this. And I just want to give this guy a proper shout out. So his name is Wences Casares. And Wences, in Silicon Valley, I would say, really was agent zero of Bitcoin. He was the one in 2010 that introduced it to me.
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I remember he reminded me of the story. Actually, we were at Orens Hummus And he's like, he's Argentinian. He's a Greek. So I'm going to try to copy his accent. You have to buy the Bitcoin. So I heard the story. I fell in love with it. I remember I called my family office. I'm like, buy me a million of these things. And he was like, or a million dollars worth. And he was like, are you crazy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I was like, no, there's just a little appetizer. We'll get to the main course. Anyways, he has done a phenomenal job of understanding and proselytizing Bitcoin. And I want to thank him because he really put me onto this. But he mentioned something to me when I saw him a couple of days ago, which is you should really look at the pattern of Bitcoin after a halving. And so I was really curious.
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And so I had a guy on my team, Quinton, put this together. So Nick, let's go to the first page. So why is this interesting? So here's a little Bitcoin price analysis for you guys. So there's been a couple of halving cycles that have happened. And I asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a halving.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I smell an intro. Tell us, J. Cal, what was the week like? What kind of week have you had? What kind of week have you had? Incredible.
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three months, six months, nine months, 12 months, and 18 months after a halving. And what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a Bitcoin halving, people are sort of reassessing what's happening and they're trying to figure it out. That's sort of what I would say happens in the first month and roughly what also happens in the first three months.
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But then within six months to a year and 18 months of these things, there are these crazy price appreciation cycles that happen. So that's what this page shows, which is 18 months after the first halving, the Bitcoin price returned 45X. After the second halving, it returned almost 28X.
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And after this third halving, it returned almost an 8X, which is really incredible returns in such a short period of time. If you go to the next page. And so if you graph that, this is what it starts to show, which is what is this price performance after each of these halving cycles. Now, why is that interesting?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, it's interesting because on top of this having, which theoretically, if history is a guide, we should see some price appreciation. Obviously, the other thing that's happened is we've commercialized Bitcoin. And we talked about this sort of as my big prediction for 2024, which is these ETFs are really going to allow Bitcoin to cross the chasm and have its sort of central key moment, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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frankly, sets up our children, which is these hundred-year bonds and defraying the cost of all of this indebtedness far out into the future. So there's many things. And I think there's things that Biden has done that I think we'll look back and say, those were good things that he did. And then there are things in the future or today that I think that we could disagree with as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. And so if you apply the averages, and again, these are just averages, they're by no means predictions. Okay, so I just want to qualify that. These are just- This is not financial advice. It's not financial advice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We took these and we applied it to the price of Bitcoin. And if you go to the next page, you start to see what could happen If you just take the average of the last few cycles, because the first cycle was so extreme, and you start to apply- Oh, so you're just doing cycle two and three here, to be clear.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Just the averages of cycle two and three, and what you start to see is some really meaningful appreciation. And when I talked to Wences about this, how he explained it, which makes a lot of sense to me, is there are a lot of countries- that will never look at Bitcoin credibly, even if they support it. The US may be one of those.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But there is an increasing body of countries that will become dual currency. And they will look at their local currency, and then they will look at Bitcoin. And they will say both of these two things are needed. One, when you're transacting on a daily basis for random goods and services.
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And two, when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value, you'll use something like BTC. And I think that's a very powerful concept. And if you look at what this price chart could indicate, is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation, it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets.
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And I think if you marry that with this worry that some folks have about dollar debasement, you start to see some really interesting opportunities. So I just thought that this was a Interesting thing that he... Here's our disclaimer. Interesting thing that he put me on. I thought I'd share that with you. I'll publish this on Twitter, but that's your crypto corner for the year, folks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's the biggest lobby in America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So the point is, I would like this place to be a place where impartiality rules, where we can be on all sides of an issue and just decide what makes the most sense after looking at the facts. And I would like, four years from now, every major political candidate for president to look at All In as the first place.
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Did you guys hear this rumor that SBF was going to put a billion dollars into the election and convince Tom Brady to run as a Republican? And give, no, give the billion to Trump. Oh, sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's hard to quantify. If young people show up, it could be 500 basis points. I mean, young people do not show up to vote because there isn't an issue that they care about. Correct. But there's 50 million Americans that own crypto. 50, 5-0. Okay. So if 10% of them are like, let's say that's their single issue, that's 5 million votes. No, no, no.
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There's a plausible case where 40 million of those folks show up because you're talking about a structural part of their wealth creation, right? So for example, like, you know, Biden, President Biden talked about giving people a headstart by eliminating their debt. That's a narrow issue.
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And the reason it's a narrow issue, there's just as many people that don't have debt and just as many people that paid off their debt, and it creates a lot of haves and have-nots, right? And there's all these rules around who will get the debt relief, et cetera. You end up touching four or five million people maximum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But if there are 50 million people who have now decided to have at least a hedge against the establishment and the traditional financial system, and you are threatening to take that wealth away, I could see how 80% of those folks show up to the ballot box and say, all right, which one of you will just leave me alone?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And if the answer is President Trump, then they're all going to vote for President Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Never.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think if we can earn that trust and have the integrity to allow all sides to tell a fair story, that is gonna be a really powerful thing and an artifact to leave behind for people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think that if you look at what happened before, we had A cycle where very large monolithic software was replaced by these SaaS vendors and Salesforce led that charge and they led the, in many ways, the definition of the cloud. So that was amazing. That was this one big cycle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And before that, that monolithic, those monolithic software vendors were replacing like mainframes and very archaic stuff. This is sort of this third disruptive cycle. We're going to go through a process of ripping and replacing these legacy products. And so Gen AI is just an enablement layer that allows you to deliver functionality to people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And I think what you're going to find is that it allows you to deliver that functionality at much, much cheaper. To your point, that's the whole point of 80-90. We always joke, is Salesforce going to get 80-90? Yeah, because you can deliver 80% of the features at a 90% discount pretty easily today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And what you can't deliver today will get much, much easier in a year and two years and three years, for sure in 10 years. So I think what the market is voting with their dollars is that these large, lumpy, monolithic software companies that need big $50, $100 million customers
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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They're not going to find them soon because those customers will realize that you could get, you know, what Freeberg said, what you need for 10 million or 5 million or 1 million or 500,000 and in some cases free. And so the cost structure of your organization makes no sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so you're going to have to go through this very complicated cycle of recycling, you know, the business model, which unfortunately will mean tons of layoffs. That's not a today thing. But over these next five and 10 years, that's probably what's going to happen. And it doesn't mean Salesforce is a bad company. It's just that it is on the wrong side of the lifecycle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the odds are overwhelmingly such that a bunch of small companies will flood this opportunity and provides cheaper, smaller, more flexible capabilities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I don't think that that explains a 20% drop in a day. I think typically these public market investors internalize a bunch of fears and they don't execute on those fears. And then when given an opportunity, they just barf it all out because it's like now it's acceptable. And so to your point, David, like it was such like a
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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an insignificant revenue miss so as to not even be important, quite honestly. But the reason it's down 20% is I think folks have internalized a different set of risks, and then they've found an escape hatch where they have plausible deniability for selling.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We talked about this last week because this number's fake.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Incredible, right? Incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Chamath, your take. I think that if you went into this looking to confirm your hatred of President Trump, you were the one that was given red meat. And I think that if you were undecided or... pro-President Trump, you probably found more reason to support him for all the reasons that Friedberg said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The thing that's unique about this specific trial that I found rather interesting was the diversity of people who just couldn't understand what this trial was about, whether it was Bill Barr, who worked for him but was not a huge fan of his, nor was Trump a or vice versa, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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To an Alan Dershowitz, to a Cyrus Vance, you had Democrats and Republicans and independents, legal scholars, legal experts, some who liked president Trump, some who did not, some who got along with him, some who did not, some who fought with him, some who did not, some who got fired by him, some who did not. And they were all categorically confused about what this whole thing was about. I'm not,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We've said this before, but, you know, in the end, what do you have? You have your family, you have your children, you have your friends, and hopefully you have work that gives you some purpose. And in all of that, if there are random people that are judging you for one thing, they'll eventually judge you for another thing. And that is not a path to any sort of contentment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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legally well-versed enough to understand what it was. So as a layman, you then tend to go to this next obvious thing, which is you have to bucket this decision as here are some experts and what they know is better than what I know. And we talked about this earlier on the pod today when it came to Fauci and it turned out to not be so true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Or you go to this other place where are there systems of government that can be convoluted and turned in the favor of the majority who's in power against someone that they feel is a threat. And we've talked about that as well with respect to how some of these governmental institutions have targeted some of our friends.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I think that we're in a very precarious moment where the systems of governments in the United States are a little bit more fragile than they were the moment before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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What was the second crime, J. Cal, if you understand the case at all?
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I've donated to Bobby Kennedy. I've donated to the Democrats massively. And I'll donate to Donald Trump. And if there's an opportunity to talk to President Biden and really understand where he's at, I donate to him as well. And so the point is that I would like to be an organizing principal. And I would like to replace...
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You're a famous, successful person. Over the next 10 or 20 years, the odds are pretty good you'll be more famous and more successful. Say more, Chema. Do you feel the less, the same, or more? You have to say less, same, or more. If somebody in government doesn't like what you're up to, after today, are you less the same or more successful?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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in terms of the risk that the laws could be used to fight you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Today, the places that I don't trust to organize and give unfiltered access to knowledge. And those things are the mainstream media. And so I'm willing to put my resources behind being that organizing principle. And I think having a broad cross-section of friends who have different political beliefs is actually a useful thing for a lot of these candidates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And that's the only way you could get her from a misdemeanor to a felony. Yeah. Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Because as it turns out, most people are sort of in the middle. And most people in any given election can be persuaded one way or the other. So the most important thing that we could do is get all of them, give all of them an opportunity to really tell an unfiltered version of their truth and then let the chips fall where they may. That is the right thing to do for America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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This is unsustainable, guys. I've been saying this now for a month. So let's just be precise again. You cannot spend this kind of money and show no incremental revenue potential. So while this is incredible for NVIDIA, the chicken is coming home to roost. Because if you do not start seeing revenue flow to the bottom line of these companies that are spending $26 billion a quarter,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
The market cap of NVIDIA is not what the market cap of NVIDIA should be. And all of these other companies are going to get punished for spending this kind of money. Now, Dell is a unique example in the sense that I actually think it's a beneficiary of spend.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And I think that it will build data centers and it will actually do well in the move to AI because it's a very smartly positioned pick and shovels provider. But the threshold question is, where are all these newfangled things that we're supposed to see that justifies $100 billion of chip spend a year, $200 billion of energy spend, $100 billion of all this other stuff?
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Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Guys, we're now spending $750 billion. This is on the order of a national... transfer payment and we've seen nothing to show for it except that you can mimic somebody's voice and you can make like a cat jump on another cat i mean making a developer 30 or 40 percent more efficient that's actually legit but i will say that hasn't happened yet either No, that's totally happening.
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Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
That's what democracy means. So this kind of like cajoling and bullying in either side, I find really distasteful and I find very immature.
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Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I think that developers can go faster with these tools. But these are, yes, but these are aspirational things. When you take a, for example, a 30,000 person company. It is not true that those engineers now are now all of a sudden as productive as 130,000 employees. It's not even true that a thousand employee company is as productive as a 4,000 person company.
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And the reason is for one very specific thing. Even as all of these next generation models get released, the practical threshold problem is when you introduce a completely new way of doing things into an existing workforce, what happens is people push back. And even in the companies that I own where I could theoretically mandate, you must use these tools because I am the owner of this company.
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Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It doesn't happen. And so I think what you're really seeing, Jason, is a few people embrace it. Those people may be 50 to 100% more productive. But when you blend that into the entire workforce, it's still a single digit percentage, which means the overall productivity gains are nominal. Yet you're being forced to spend, again, $750 billion a year. It doesn't all hang together yet.
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You get around the innovators dilemma by saying, guys, you need to be AI first. from the outset, which a startup can do because they can recruit people that, for example, with 80-90, same thing. You must use these tools. For example, we are not allowed to have any administrative staff. Everything is done by an agent or workflow.
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But that's because we're a new company and we can make those decisions. But somebody who is at an established company, I suspect that these gains are nominal at best, yet the spend is outrageous. And when it catches up with you when you report,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah.
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Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I think the thing that hasn't happened yet is we haven't actually now started to talk about the contours of a handful of policy things where there is some deep diversion now, where these candidates are diverging from each other. And I think that that's going to be really interesting to see how much people value that differentiation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I'll give you an example, which is President Trump in the last few weeks has become incredibly pro-crypto. Now, the contours of that I think we need to define, right?
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But the question is, is a pro-crypto environment, especially in a world where we think that there's just going to be continued dollar debasement, an important issue, an unimportant issue, or a thing that is a small issue today, but that will be critical for us in 20 and 30 years to get right? That's an example.
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Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And there's a handful of these other things that I think that now we have a chance to really double click on where there really is some differentiation amongst the three presidential candidates. And I think that's healthy as well. And so it's important, again, get their specific thoughts on the record so that we can really figure this out.
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Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And I think that over these next few months, I think it's going to be important to do that. So I hope President Biden also comes on the pod, quite honestly, and allows us to ask him the hard questions. And I hope Bobby comes back on, actually. And I think Bobby will if we ask him just to tighten up where he's at now a few months.
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Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I'm excited. I'm really excited for President Trump to come on the podcast.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Now, the cost of that- Zach, sorry, is they DeepSeek or it's DeepSeek plus the hedge fund?
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It's hard to know what's fact and what's fiction. Everybody who's on the outside guessing has their own incentive, right? So if you're a semiconductor analyst that effectively is massively bullish NVIDIA, you want it to be true that it wasn't possible to train on $6 million.
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Obviously, if you're the person that makes an alternative that's that disruptive, you want it to be true that it was trained on $6 million. All of that, I think, is all speculation. The thing that struck me was how different their approach was.
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And TK just mentioned this, but if you dig into not just the original white paper of DeepSeek, but they've also published some subsequent papers that have refined some of the details. I do think that this is a case, and Sax, you can tell me if you disagree, but this is a case where necessity was the mother of invention.
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I'll give you two examples where I just read these things and I was like, man, these guys are really clever. The first is, as you said, let's put in a pin on whether they distilled O1, which we can talk about in a second. But at the end of the day, these guys were like, well, how am I going to do this reinforcement learning thing? They invented a totally different algorithm.
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There was the orthodoxy, right? This thing called PPO that everybody used. And they were like, no, we're going to use something else called, I think it's called GRPO or something. It uses a lot less computer memory and it's highly performant.
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So maybe they were constrained, Sachs, practically speaking, by some amount of compute that caused them to find this, which you may not have found if you had just a total surplus of compute availability. And then the second thing that was crazy is everybody is used to building models and compiling through CUDA, which is NVIDIA's proprietary language,
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which I've said for a couple times is their biggest moat, but it's also the biggest threat vector for lock-in. And these guys worked totally around CUDA, and they did something called PTX, which goes right to the bare metal. And it's controllable, and it's effectively like writing assembly.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Now, the only reason I'm bringing these up is we, meaning the West, with all the money that we've had, didn't come up with these ideas. And I think part of why we didn't come up is not that we're not smart enough to do it, but we weren't forced to because the constraints didn't exist. And so I just wonder how we make sure we learn this principle.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Meaning when the AI company wakes up and rolls out of bed and some VC gives them $200 million, maybe that's not the right answer for a series A or a seed. And maybe the right answer is 2 million so that they do these deep seek like innovations.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Well, you're about to see a big test of this because if OpenAI raises 40 billion at 340 billion, that just hit the wire. The underwriting logic at 340 billion, exactly what you just said, Freebrook, it is the wrapper, meaning ChatGPT is the next killer app. It's getting to a billion plus now, hundreds of millions of DAO.
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Which puts them on a collision course with Meta. It's the only company... that could really impact that because the only company right now that has billions of eyeballs of DAUs per day, and by the way, Zuck said this in his earnings release, he's like, there's only going to be one company that brings AI to a billion plus people and it will be us.
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Some version of that quote is in his earnings release yesterday. And then Microsoft showed weakness in their cloud.
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What do you guys think is happening right now between OpenAI and Microsoft? Because if it's true that this distillation thing actually happened, well, there's only one place where you could have distilled the O1 model.
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Yeah. So when you have a big, large parameter model, The way that you get to a smaller, more usable model along the lines of what Sax mentioned is through this process called distillation where the big model feeds the little model. So the little model is asking questions of the big model and you take the answers and you refine. And by the way, you can see this, Nick, I sent you a clip.
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You guys can see this. I mean, there's clearly distillation happening. Nick, can you show the clip of the deep seek run where it shows the China answer and then deletes it? What was Winston's job in 1984, right? And it sort of starts to go through this whole summary. And then the person says, are there any actual states that currently do that? Hold on, here it goes. It says North Korea.
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Wait, it goes China. And then wait, watch this. Boom. So the reason why this is happening is like you're seeing this chain of thought, you're seeing the several layers, and then it's catching it after the fact. So we know that this is distilled from some other model.
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And my only point there, it's the little tongue in cheek is right now, when you go and use open AI, you're using it sitting in an Azure instance somewhere, right? So this is Microsoft's cloud infrastructure that runs it. So it begs the question, It's not that it's O1's fault or OpenAI's fault that this distillation happened.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And I'm not trying to assign blame, but typically if this were to happen, you'd look to your cloud provider and say, how are you letting this happen? And I don't think anybody's had a good answer for that.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
They've been very clear about this. By the way, you have to be sympathetic, I think, to OpenAI in this because if you're building a startup, you're trying to raise money. We've all gone through this cycle, guys, where it's like there's momentum. We celebrate internally the momentum. That's what gets you the energy to push your team even further and harder.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Then all of a sudden, it turns out that some portion of that... Travis said it well. There's probably a chart inside of OpenAI's offices where you're showing how many times these APIs are getting hit, how many times these endpoints are getting hit. It all looks positive, and then you realize that some portion of it was actually bad and trying to undercut your value. It's a hard pill to swallow.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And then you have to course correct very quickly. You have to lock down. This is one area where- Exactly. We have not talked about this. You have to lock these models down. Now you have to lock the endpoints down. Look, in the Biden administration, if this had happened, the first conversation would have been, we need to KYC the people that use these models.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And it's like, what are you talking about? We don't KYC the cloud. If you're trying to use an EC2 endpoint or an S3 bucket, you don't have to all of a sudden- Prove who you are. You just use a credit card and go. That's the whole point of why proliferation can happen so quickly.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
But if we take the wrong takeaways from this period, there's going to be a bunch of people that will clamor to lock these folks down and make innovation go much slower. I think that that would be bad.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Do you see people actually cooking in the future or does it become a centralized service? And is it optimized to people's health? And what do you think the implications to the food supply are if your vision holds? How do you think about all those things?
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
But this is the problem, like we, meaning like the Western AI community, we've been trudging around on this path where we had a very orthodoxical approach. The only way you can do reinforcement learning is through PPO. Okay, but is that true? And it turns out that if you're like a really smart team that has no other choice, you move away and you invent your way out of it.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And so we have to get that example too. I think it's technically brilliant, some of the things they've done, but they also use constraint as very much a feature, not a bug. And the Western AI economy has been the opposite so far.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I think all the pressure right now, I think, is on meta. Because I think Meta has to show up with the next iteration of Lama that beats and exceeds Gemini, that exceeds R1. And I think that that is going to be crucial for us to have a counterweight to whatever China is going to put out after this.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Embrace and extend.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Meta has to embrace and extend everything that these guys have shown, meaning like Meta's buying tens of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs. Great. But what did this show? This shows that actually CUDA, high level languages in general, I think we've all known that they suck. Okay. And so we've all been going through it thinking that it's like the right thing to do. DeepSeq throws it out the window.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
They use something called PTX. What does Meta do is critical not to understand. They need to embrace this stuff. And this is where I think, again, apologies to the invidiables, but it's going to create a more heterogeneous environment. And the reason is because there's too much money and risk on the line to go through a single point of failure.
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a chip, a high-level framework to get to that chip, that's nuts. So I think like that kind of like emperor has no clothes moment is upon us.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
The first is you have to build a shim. And I think the reason why a shim is really critical is that there's so much entropy at the model level. What this should show you is you can't pick any model.
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And the problem is that the people that manipulate these models, the machine learning engineers and whatnot, they become too oriented to understanding how to get output of high quality using one thing, meaning it shouldn't have been the case that we have engineers that can only use Sonnet, right? That's the anthropic model, right?
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
It shouldn't be the case that people can only use OpenAI or people can only use Lama. Right now, that is kind of what we have. You don't have the flexibility to hot swap as models change. So if you were starting a company today, The first technical problem I would want to solve for is that.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Because tomorrow, if it's R2 or Alibaba's model or Lama, I would want to be able to rip it out and put it back in and have everything work. And right now, we can't do that. The answer to your question is the application layer.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Which country is going broke now, Fieber? America?
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Like sweet greens, like what they, yeah.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I don't know the answer to that. And I think Saxon President Trump will make a good decision. But here's the curious case of the export controls. Nick, I sent you a couple of tweets if you want to just bring this up. So the first thing that people are claiming is that DeepSeek is getting access to a bunch of Nvidia GPUs using Singapore as a backdoor.
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So essentially you create a Singaporean shell company you place an order with Nvidia, Nvidia fulfills that into Singapore, and then the chips go someplace. There's a bunch of examples where people are saying that you're talking about up to a quarter of all Nvidia revenue goes into Singapore.
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The speculation right now is that 100% of those then go into China, which is an enormous claim because that's a huge amount of Nvidia's revenue. Now, the interesting thing is if you actually try to understand, well, maybe that's not true and maybe it's sitting inside of Singapore, this is where that kind of unravels. So just to be clear, Singapore is about 250 or 260 square miles.
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It's like a small, small place. Also the TikTok headquarters. And I tried to find out how many data centers are in Singapore and it's about 100. And so you would think that, okay, well, what does that mean? 100 could mean anything. But then you look at the energy and they publish that. And all of those hundred data centers consume about 876 megawatts. So these are small data centers, right?
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And the entire industry is like a one and a half, $2 billion revenue business. So I do think that SACS and the administration are going to have to dig into this and figure out what their opinion should be. But there is clearly a ton of these chips going into Singapore. I don't think anybody knows where they end up. And the question is, what does America think about that?
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And why did we implement these export controls in the first place? And if there's a simple backdoor, how do you want to react?
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
This is a great point, but it's worse than that. The models today are capable of designing chips for you that don't rely on the most complicated technologies that ASML creates. I mean, look, one of the luckiest things that happened to Grok was we designed our chip at 14 nanometer, which is effectively in the spectrum of technology like VHS and beta.
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So we chose a simple, simple technology stack to build towards. The latest cutting edge chips at like two nanometer that use these complicated ASML machines, it's not clear that the yield is actually that good. So why would you spend all that money?
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And if China is forced to engineer its way around it, yeah, Friedberg, the answer to your question is they'll use these models to design chips that can be manufactured in simple ways and they'll make simple stuff.
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Well, it doesn't. And this is why I think it doesn't solve the real problem, which is how do we incentivize people in America to really out-engineer and out-innovate? Competition.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Or the other version as well is that China could just bear the cost as a central authority of building an incredibly great model, right? And they will spend all the money and then they will tell the Chinese companies, you can distill from this model for free Because we have a golden vote and a seat on your board anyways, which is effectively de facto what happens if you get big enough in China.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
So there's that possibility as well, where one central authority bears the capex of creating something that then everybody else can draft off of.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
That's so cool.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Do you think there's a service in the future where my physiology, I can share that with you, with Cloud Kitchens, and you guys just can always be optimizing my food based on what I know is good or bad for me?
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I'm adding you right now.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Eggplants. People are like, oh my God.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I think that we have to remember that we're only nine or 10 days into Doge. So the fact that we're already at a billion dollars a day is really incredible. And there has really been no discernible impact. There has been a lot of fissures of fake news and misinformation, but the real impacts have been negligible to none since they started making those cuts. I think that Doge is a three-layer onion.
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So layer one is the people. We have now given a pretty generous offer to folks. And I think Elon said it, it was like basically the maximum allowed by these contracts, but they tried to do a very good thing there.
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The second, as you guys just said, the second layer of the onion is going to be the infrastructure, all the buildings, all the physical plants that the government owns and operates that may be empty, that may be idle, and getting them back into private hands so that they can be repurposed. That's going to save a ton of money.
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But both of them will pale in comparison to the third layer of this onion, which is the IT and the services and the spend. And what I mean by that is when you read how the department is set up, at the center and nucleus of every single one of these Doge teams is an engineer. And I think the reason is that they can get into these systems of record and start to trace where the money is going.
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It should be a brand like then Sweet Greens or whomever, Chipotle, that says, hey guys, share with me like an encrypted hash of your dietary restrictions, needs, whatever, your lipid panel, and I'll customize this thing and then you enable that.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And I think when you start to uncover through forensic analysis where these dollars are going and how it's spent, that's probably how you're going to close the gap from a trillion to, and I suspect to be honest, it could be more than $2 trillion when it's all said and done. That is an enormous amount of waste and it's unproductive. So I'm very excited for what happens over this next little while.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Just the transparency is going to be incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
What do you think, Travis, about this whole Maha movement and just the food supply itself? So then how does that change? Do restaurants embrace more farm-to-table stuff?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Robots need actuators. Do you know what you need for an actuator? A permanent magnet. You know what you need for a permanent magnet? Rare earths. Who's the rare earth king? Ex-China? Greenland.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Can I put you on the spot? Just go one level above it because merge the last two concepts together. We talked about the federal government, DOGE, et cetera. Isn't there the potential for just a complete surplus of physical inventory that exists in America? Oh, yeah. Big time. So what does that mean for commercial? Navigate around that because you've got to evade the falling knives first.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
But what should we do with that? And is there a demand for that land?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And then don't we have to reevaluate all of the city planning today? Because city planning today, to your point, works backwards from all these constraints that are 1.0 constraints. Like here's the traffic flow, here are the traffic patterns. Those don't exist theoretically anymore, or they would exist in a totally different way, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
But that's not a bad idea if you want to have farm-to-table healthy food. It's literally farm-to-table. It's like a mile away from you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
You could imagine— But that's what I wanted you to say, not to try to get you there, but—
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Well, that seems like the crazy thing that nobody is thinking about, which is in this push, this physical built inventory has so much value built up in the 401ks of individuals to the balance sheets of huge pension funds, but that value could be very different.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I would just say that the long end of the yield curve is basically telling us that there's still a chance for inflation. So I think that the question is these next 30 or 60 days from the administration, I think are basically, they're critical. And I think if Doge gets to the 3 billion a day number quicker than people thought, there's going to be a lot of room for, I think, the president to
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
make a very valid argument that rates are too high for where they are and that we're going to be able to have a lot more cost control in the expenses, which means that there'll be less need to spend. It doesn't solve the problem that Yellen created.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Yellen and Biden on the way out the door, the biggest problem was that they put America in this very difficult position because they issued so much short-term paper that is extremely expensive. And as all of that rolls off, we have to go and finance a ton of this debt at now 5%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And I think that that could take a lot of the energy out of the market.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
The problem is if we go to five and a half percent, that's not 80 basis points. What you really need to think about is the total tonnage of actual dollars that need to get repaid back. And if you look backwards, that's effectively like 10% rates from 2000. Could you imagine what the economy would have done if you had brought rates to 10%, 11% 20 years ago? It would have crippled the economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
The onesie was crazy. Your bowl builder, Friedberg, you tried to do this, right? Itza. Itza and –
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
So we don't have a lot of room here where you can walk rates up to 5.5%, 6% without... a lot of things starting to break.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
This is why I actually think Doge will be successful because as people internalize all of these things where every single congressperson, Freeberg, that may have wanted their own benefit for their community, they'll have to take a step back because the broader optimization for America just needs to take precedence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
No, they won't. They won't. But the question is, can they block it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I just think this is where I think Elon's fame can be helpful. And I mean very specifically this following idea. You know, that famous Sputnik comment where NASA spent millions of dollars trying to engineer a pen that could write upside down, and it turned out that in Sputnik, the Russians just took a pencil.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
That is what we need to do to the US government, because I suspect even though there's a lot of mandated spend, the real question that nobody knows the answer to is, is that spend useful? So even though it's appropriated by Congress, there has to be a feedback loop that says, you can just use a pencil. You don't need the upside down writing pen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And I think that if there's anybody that can broadcast that to the world, it's him. And this is where I think Trump gets enormous leverage by having Elon in the West Wing. But nobody else could give him. The rest of us would just be chirping into the darkness.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I'll share two things. One is anonymous. It's from a friend of mine gave it to me and said I could share it. This is a commercial pilot, and I posted this, so I'll just read it. Honestly, DCA is the sketchiest airport we fly into. I feel like the controllers there play fast and loose, hence the periodic runway incursions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I've said to every first officer in my threat briefings that we both need to be on red alert at all times there. DCA calls out helo traffic, helicopter traffic, and vice versa all the time, but it's borderline impossible to see them when you're bombing along at 150 miles per hour. I mean, that's from a pilot that is not, I don't think he has any incentive to sugarcoat things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And then I just wanted to read a message from Brian Yutko, who's the CEO of WISC, who's building a lot of these autonomous systems. He said, first, auto traffic Collision avoidance systems do exist. Right now, these aircraft will not take control from the pilot to save the aircraft, even if software and systems on the aircraft know that it's going to collide.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
That's the bit flip that needs to happen in aviation. Automation can actually kick in and take over even in piloted aircraft to prevent a crash. That's the minimum of where we need to go. Some fighter jets have something called automatic ground collision avoidance systems that do exactly this when fighter pilots pass out, and it's possible for commercial.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And then the second, he said, is we need to have better ATC, air traffic control, software and automation. Right now, we use VHF radio communications for safety and for critical instructions, and that's kind of insane. We should be using data links, et cetera. The whole ATC system runs on 1960s technology. They deserve better software and automation in the control towers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
It's totally ripe for change. The problem is that attempts at reform have failed. So I just wanted you guys to have that, one from this commercial pilot, and then two from Brian Yudko, who I think understands this issue really well. There's so much opportunity here to make this better. This should have never happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Our other friend, Sky Dayton, has been pushing really hard for the US government to do advanced pilot training. One of the things that he says constantly is just that a lot of the pushback is just union rhetoric around what they perceive the right thing for their constituency is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Hopefully, this starts this conversation because I think guys like Sky, guys like Brian are working on this next level of autonomous solution that can just make flying totally, totally safe beyond what it was. The crazy stat is that we haven't had a commercial airline disaster in the United States in almost 25 years. Isn't that incredible?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Love you, boys. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Sorry, just real quick. Do you think there's one LLM or one foundational model read that effectively does everything like a meta model that starts to take most of the market or does different... versions of smaller models or small agents that kind of network together, end up being the best solution for specific applications and verticals. Like how does this evolve over time?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Like everyone's got this concept that there's a God model that does everything and wins. And whoever gets the God model wins everything. But the reality of software and principles of biology would indicate that you'll see like smaller network things that are better at doing things than any one big thing. And I'm curious to hear your point of view on the philosophy of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Or language translation, right? If I just want to do language translation, I don't need a massive model. I just need a model that's really good at language translation. Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Do you feel the voters felt, Reed, do you think the voters felt left out? the Democratic voters?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I would have liked to have that speed run. Do you think it sets a bad precedent that there were these back room conversations? Obviously, The staff of Whitmer, Moore, Shapiro, their office speaks with Democratic Party leadership, speak with big donors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And there was effectively a coalescing that took place over a period of time that said, we should all stand behind and endorse one person instead of infighting and creating a split in the party. And does that not set a bad precedent that there is a small group of people in either party...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
that in a primary process effectively get to nominate their candidate, get their candidate to become the nominee. And therefore there's only two people for the country to choose from. And as we have seen recently with RFK Jr. and the lawsuits against him in being on the ballot in different states, it makes it very difficult maybe for the people to have their choice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And is that a bad way for democracy to work? And I just love your philosophical view on this. I'm like, what's the best way for democracy in the United States to work?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Because you give money to folks that then execute their own strategies. So you can't control on the ground tactics, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
So there's that happens that you're like, no, don't do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Reid, do you think that, generally speaking, Marxist socialist principles are taking a firmer hold on the Democratic Party? And kind of those principles are starting to showcase not just in the cultural phenomena that Chamath is referencing, but also in some of the policymaking that's going on, and concepts of equity
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
rooted in concepts of social justice, ultimately rooted in Marxist principles emerging from the Industrial Revolution. What about price fixing? So as an example, the price gouging, you know, price caps on food proposal,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
the concepts of a wealth tax, not necessarily the unrealized capital gains tax, but separately a tax on wealth, all of these concepts of the degradation of power structure through policy. And in part, some have argued that the antisemitism arises from these principles and that the Jews are considered a privileged and powerful cultural class. Is that not being observed?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Do you not think that there's some tendencies that are emerging in the Democratic Party and maybe influenced by a louder far left and that far left is becoming more loud and better represented in the party?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Driven by fuel and labor and all the other inflationary underpinnings of those markets. And I think we tried to highlight that. I don't know if you saw Elizabeth Warren's interview on CNBC where she got taken apart because she made some claims about profiteering by Kraft Heinz. And the CNBC anchors pointed out you were actually incorrect.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kraft Heinz has seen a reduction in profit over this period of time. And so there were factual inaccuracies in these belief systems. But for me, it feels a lot like the government setting prices in free markets is one of those steps towards socialist principles that worry me the most.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yeah, if 80% or more is illiquid, then... No, you get to defer the tax, but there's a penalty. Yeah, you get to defer the tax credit as a penalty. That's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
By the way, what Sachs didn't address is Trump's tariff policy, which is also inflationary, almost equivalent to the price gouging, you know, food price caps. I think that they're both inflationary and they're both bad policy. That's my personal point of view. Tariffs is where I thought it was going to go. Yeah. Anyway. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
That's different. That's different. That's a subset. That's a different group. That's a group to counteract you and Chamath. Throwing us fundraiser for Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
We're rolling into an interview with R.F.K. Jr. It wasn't designed this way. The last minute R.F.K. It's just that last minute R.F.K. Jr., who's on vacation, said that he would talk to us about what it was like to kind of withdraw and all this sort of stuff. So we booked it right after you, but he's in the waiting room.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yeah, there are aspects of industrialized food and processed food that are bad for people. And I do agree, it should be changed. I know a lot of people that work at the USDA, a lot of people that work in other government organizations that don't make a lot of money. They may or may not have worked at other companies, but I think that there's no economic incentive for them to do harm or wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
So I don't think that there's a constructive design on doing bad things by any individual. I think that there is an unfortunate circumstance where people eat bad stuff
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
stuff that tastes better they like it more it sells better and the economic incentive and capitalism is to make more of that stuff and sell more of it and as a result the stuff that people like that isn't good for them they buy more of and the companies make more money and so they continue to invest in selling more and more of that stuff and this goes in most processed foods it's terrible it's not good and so i do agree that much of this processed food industry is um
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
very adverse to health, but I don't think that there's a grand design by individuals that are malicious in their intent in trying to do it. I think that there are people that are doing their job on, hey, this is what the market wants, let's give them more.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
No, no, I think that, yeah, the point is, like if people buy more of it, they're like, let's sell more of it, you know? Yeah, okay. And if that were illegal, if it was illegal to say, hey, this sort of food product should not be made, but look, alcohol fits the bill too, right? And we keep making alcohol and sugar fits the bill. The more sugar, Coca-Cola did a study years ago
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
where they kept increasing the amount of sugar in Coca-Cola until they maximally got sell-through. So some kids liked 60 grams of sugar in 12 ounces of Coke, some kids liked 30, but the perfect level was at 42 grams. And so that study was done by the scientists that worked at Coca-Cola, and then they said, that's the product, it'll sell the most. And that's the incentive inside of that company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
That's how that company operates. Now, you could ask yourself the question, is that evil? Is that bad? We now know that sugar in general is bad. The executives at Coca-Cola, at AB InBev, at other places are trying to make alcohol-free, sugar-free alternatives. So there's a lot of push by these people. Unilever has tried to make a big push towards good food. Nestle's tried to do the same.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
They've all made these stated commitments to improve the health of the food that they produce. But it is quite difficult to be successful in doing that and returning money to shareholders. The shareholders are like, where's the money?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
What's the price of the food, Chamath? Is it more in Italy? Do you pay more, do you think? I've already commented on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I don't know if there's competition in the build-out. I think we talked about this in the past. And I don't know if you guys saw these quotes this week or recently on, we don't think about this build-out in terms of ROI. Gavin Baker in conversation on Invest Like the Best, is that the name of the podcast? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I think referenced some conversations he's been having with the leaders of these companies regarding the build-out is so important because ultimately, if you create this, quote, digital god, the return is how many trillions. So it doesn't matter how many tens of billions you're spending each quarter right now. You have to get there. You have to make sure you don't miss the boat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I will agree on an important point. The food stamp program, the SNAP program, provides food stamps to support 42 million Americans. 42 million people rely on food stamps. It costs $120 billion of federal money per year. And as, as Bobby said, the number one product bought on the food stamp program is soda, canned soda.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I guess, Reid, a question for you. You're on the board of Microsoft still, right? Yes, indeed. Has Microsoft or Satya publicly talked about how they rationalize the investing principles associated with building out AI infrastructure in the cloud? Is it ROI based? Like, hey, in the next two years, we're going to make this much additional incremental operating profit?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And there was an important debate a few years ago about whether or not canned soda, by the way, Bobby, you and I probably agree on a lot of things. It's definitely a lot of things we don't agree on. But like, these aspects, I think, are just no brainers. There was a debate a few years ago about whether or not canned soda should be allowed as a purchase on the food stamp program.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
or whether it should be fresh fruits and vegetables and grains and other things. And ultimately there was a food lobbying effort made that kept canned soda on the food stamp program. And it is, again, $120 billion of annual federal spend with the biggest line item going to canned soda to feed 42 million Americans. And the connection is completely direct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
high sugar, high glycemic index, diabetes, and other chronic health conditions arise from that connection. So definitely aligned with you on the misincentives and the disincentives in these programs that have been created. And they only expand every year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Or is it like, hey, we got to get this thing working?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Two- All cloud computing platform companies, what's your sense on how they're thinking about it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Use their products if you want to. Use their products if you want to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Look, there's no question that Palantir sells into the deep state, but I don't know that that makes a deep state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
No, I'm not on any team in respect of I don't really understand what you're saying there. I'm just goofing. I have shares in the company. I think it's a good investment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
One thing I want to say, none of us are at any risk of running Palantir on our servers, okay? Absolutely. CrowdStrike is running in the background of many, many companies who may not even be fully aware of it. And they were certainly surprised when all those airlines' computers went down, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So my only point is maybe you should make sure about whether you're running their products or not and then make a conscious decision whether you think that's a good idea. That's all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Sure. I just don't want to overreact or overread into one day in the market. I mean, today's up, yesterday was down. These are blips in the grand scheme of things. Even a 2% to 3% move is just not that unusual.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, that's positing a future that I don't think is going to happen, at least not anytime soon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, no, I don't really buy that. And so I think this whole idea of UBI is premature and very expensive, and it doesn't work. I mean, I think what we saw from the study, just to echo what Freeberg said, is that cash transfers don't work. We saw this in the Great Society, just handing people money doesn't solve poverty. It actually traps people in conditions of dependence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
We also saw during COVID that all those STEMI checks, it might have had a macro effect in the economy of kind of boosting the economy during what could have been a COVID depression. However, at an individual level, what did we see? We saw people quitting or quite quitting their jobs. They spent more on leisure, alcohol, and meme stocks. In other words, it wasn't tremendously productive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So I think that what we've seen in the past is just handing people money doesn't create the types of outcomes that people want.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, I think it's a combination of virtue signaling combined with, let's assume that you want to become the first AI trillionaire, and people are concerned about job loss, you're going to virtue signal in the direction of, well, let's just give everyone money. And a lot of people in power will love that because it creates a lot of dependence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So it serves the interests of tech moguls and people in the government, but I don't think it serves society.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And I think one of the most interesting data points in the study, please confirm if I get this right, but what it said is that the people who got the $1,000 a month UBI saw their incomes rise to $45,000 on average, while the control group who only got $50 a month increased their average income to $50,000. Actually, just shy of $51,000.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So the people who didn't get the larger stimmy actually genuinely bettered themselves over the course of the study, while the ones who got the 12,000 a year stayed in place. And that's kind of what you'd expect, right? Which is if you just hand people money without having to work, it doesn't motivate them to work harder. It actually motivates them to do less.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And let's say that you're in a point in your career where you need to learn, you need to get mentorship, you need to advance yourself. By giving people UBI, you could be kicking out those bottom rungs of the ladder where the work isn't necessarily that fun, but you're picking up very important skills that are gonna help you rise up in the ladder. And you're not doing-
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I was a bartender. I mean, look, these are all jobs that have dignity. I mean, I think work has dignity and you need people to start somewhere. And if you just give them the STEMI or the UBI... It demotivates them from starting their careers and you trap people at this lower level. So I just don't think you're doing anyone any favors by doing this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I wouldn't necessarily call it collaboration. I call it a market position. I mean, Fox News has carved out a powerful and profitable market niche by being the one cable news network that appeals to conservatives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Now, if, you know, let's say the more liberal members of the family like James take over and change the content and the programming to serve their own political views, they're going to lose viewership. They're going to lose their audience. It would be a foolish idea just from a business standpoint. So I think that Lachlan is the right choice. I've met Lachlan before, by the way. Nice guy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
look, I think a pretty mainstream conservative type of guy, he's clearly the right guy in the family to run this. And the siblings, I think, could really screw it up. And I'm talking about not just from a content standpoint, I'm talking about from a a revenue and profit standpoint if they take it in a different direction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I would already say that Fox News has a market position problem, which is that Rupert is very much a neocon, and neoconservatism is on the way out in the Republican Party in favor of a more populist conservatism that you see with Trump or now his running mate, J.D. Vance. Rupert and Fox waged a really strong campaign to keep JD Mance off the ticket, obviously lost that battle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Rupert fired Tucker, by far their highest rated and most profitable host ever. And it was over, again, this populism versus neoconservatism direction. So I think that Fox already has a problem where they are becoming misaligned with their audience. And regardless of what you think of the politics, that's as bad for business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
It'll be really interesting to see if Laughlin will realign things in a more populist direction, but definitely going in a liberal direction that like James or the other siblings want to go in, that would be a disaster.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, look, this clearly reshuffles the race to some degree. I don't think it's a dead heat. The polling shows that Trump is still ahead in most of the swing states. But look, Harris has more upside than Biden does because she can actually campaign. I mean, Biden clearly was a surefire loser. And that was exposed in the presidential debate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And that's why there was a total panic in the Democrat Party. After that debate, they're like, we got to get someone new. And they drove him out. I do want to just say a word about that process. Hmm. Throughout that process, remember, it started with Biden doing that Stephanopoulos interview. He said that even God Almighty won't get me out of this race. Then he said, nobody's pushing me out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I'm not going anywhere. I'm campaigning next week. He expressed that what was happening in the party was a revolt against him. And then, boom, all of a sudden, he's out. And all we really know from the public reporting is that Nancy Pelosi said, Joe, we can do this the easy way or the hard way. And he was out again, less than 24 hours after he said, I'm in and I'm campaigning next week.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And even his surrogates on the Sunday morning shows were saying that he's definitely in the race. The White House staff didn't know. His campaign staff didn't know. It kind of came out of the blue. It's a very strange process. And it happened via him just posting a photograph of a letter that was on personal stationery, not even like an official... White House memorandum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And we didn't get an update. We didn't hear directly from the president about one of the most consequential decisions of his life and of his presidency until Wednesday.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Fair enough. That was the story. But still, I mean, for us to be left in the dark wondering what was really going on for three days, it was very strange. It certainly was not what you would call a democratic process. There was no speed run primary as you wanted, Jason. There was no open convention.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
What happened is the delegates fell in line instantly, as I predicted, because I said that they would not be able to handle the chaos, that they wanted to basically fall in line immediately and end the chaos. And they fell in line behind Kamala Harris, who has never gotten even one primary vote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Who's the scariest? The scariest, the one I would pick, is Josh Shapiro. He's the governor of Pennsylvania, rising star. Look, if he can deliver Pennsylvania for the Democrats, that's powerful. Because one way for Harris to eke out a victory is...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
If Shapiro can get her Pennsylvania, and then if she sort of tacks back to appealing to the Arab and Muslim vote in Michigan, to eke out Michigan and then ekes out Wisconsin with just one point. In other words, if she can hold on to the blue wall, and then she loses the swing states that Trump is very much ahead in, like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
she can still win this election by 270 electoral votes to 268. It'd be the closest margin in presidential history. So that's the scenario. And it's probably her best path to victory is to win by one electoral vote. That's the scenario I'd be most worried about as a Republican. Now, the other candidate you hear a lot about Is Mark Kelly, the senator from Arizona, who on paper looks fantastic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
He's an astronaut. His wife was a victim of a gunshot. Moderate, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I personally don't think he is that moderate, but I think he presents as one and he's, he's made noises. He comes across as tough and comes across as, as someone who's wanted to be tougher on the border, which is a huge weakness for Harris. Yeah. If he can deliver Arizona, then he becomes a strong contender, but I'm not sure that he can. So if it were me, I'd probably go with Shapiro.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
That is shocking. That's insane. It's deranged.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And that's right. I think it's totally crazy. However, I definitely have seen people online. I mean, articles online like saying, like, is this an issue with putting Shapiro on the ticket? Now, I can't believe this is a problem for the voters of the country. However, I think if you're one of the Democratic masterminds and you're trying to engineer enough electoral votes for Harris to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Like I said, you're trying to win that blue wall. You're trying to get not just Pennsylvania, but Michigan. And the problem that Biden had and now Harris has in Michigan is that the large Arab and Muslim population of Michigan is really against the administration's support. of Israel. Now, this is why Harris just snubbed Netanyahu when he came to Washington.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So they are immediately trying to reposition that issue. And remember, the margin of error in Michigan is like 2%. So if they can win back that vote by seeming to be more progressive on the whole Israel-Gaza war, then there's a big electoral advantage for them. So I have to wonder if this is where This talk about, you know, is it an issue for Shapiro to be Jewish on the ticket or whatever?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Again, it's nuts to me that we could be even having that conversation in this country. But it's possible that that is what's going on is it's like, can you win Pennsylvania but not lose Michigan?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
When John F. Kennedy ran for president, it was a big issue that he was Catholic. I mean, you guys don't remember this, but in 1960, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah. And specifically what people asked is, would he be loyal to the United States or be loyal to the Vatican and the Pope? You know, who was his ultimate authority? And he made it really clear, look, I'm going to do what's right for the United States. And he neutralized that issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I think that what matters about Shapiro or any VP is their views and their accomplishments, their policies, and whether he's Jewish or not really is secondary. Even if your principal concern is Gaza, there are still plenty of Jews who have a wide spectrum of views on that issue. So it is nuts to me that this conversation is seriously happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, that's nice to know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
That's nice to know. There was also another unhinged tirade that he had against me a few months ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Where he was commenting in the Ukraine debate and was responding to a Ukrainian partisan who, this guy is like a propagandist for Ukraine who was embedded in the Azov battalion. People may know what that is. In any event, Paul went out of his way. The thing is, I've never met Paul Graham. I don't know him. I've never done business with him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So it's just weird to me that he has this animus and this vitriol towards me. It's hard to know exactly what this is based on. I think that part of it is that he thinks he knows what happened at Zenefits. even though he wasn't involved at all. And he's just listening to one guy who's been nursing this vendetta for many years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And then other people are speculating that there could be other things involved. I don't quite know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
What is it that you guys want to know?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, I mean, look, that whole experience was easily the worst year of my entire professional career, having to deal with that mess that he created. And look, anybody can now say anything almost 10 years later in a podcast, but the situation there was thoroughly investigated by regulators who had subpoena powers, who did extensive discovery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
They looked at everyone's emails throughout the whole company. They also interviewed something like a dozen people under oath and took witness testimony from them. And then they sanctioned him, they fined him, and they published an account of what happened. I personally think it's a huge waste of time to be like rehashing events that are almost a decade old.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
But I guess I'm being forced to by this smear campaign that he and... Paul Graham have engineered against me. If you want to know what happened, just read what the SEC said, read what the other regulators said. There was only one person who was named as being aware of the misconduct. And there was only one person who was fined and held accountable by regulators.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
In fact, he was fined more than the company. Now, if he just said, yeah, look, I learned from that mistake, and I made some mistakes, moved on, and apparently he does have a successful company, so I don't really understand why he's so bitter. He seems to have like a, you know, he's like disturbed about it. Then it would be fine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I mean, there would be no reason to be talking about this, but the guy refuses to admit that he did anything wrong, and instead he's created this elaborate story that his departure from Zenefits wasn't related to massive compliance issues. And that somehow it was related to him seeing a sales target or being the victim of a coup. That's not what happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
This was a regulatory crisis that unfolded over many months and kept getting worse and worse. And we kept discovering new compliance violations. And this created a 50-state insurance investigation that could have shut the company down. And he controlled the board. He didn't have to leave if he didn't want to. He ultimately perceived that it was in his interest to leave and let us clean it up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And then he went on to go do this other startup, which I think he was planning to do all along. So his plan worked out for him, which is he left a big mess for us to clean up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
It was miserable and obviously pretty thankless. I did it for no compensation. I did it because, like you said, I had a lot of friends who invested in the company. I just thought it was the right thing to do to do this cleanup. The lawyer said it would take two years. We managed to get it done in one year. We got a clean bill of health from regulators.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
We had to remediate all the compliance failures. When I then handed the torch to the new CEO, we had $200 million in the bank and $60 million of ARR with a clean bill of health. You know, but I didn't know I'd have this like crazy founder like lobbing bombs at me the whole time. And frankly, if I had known he was going to do this, I would have just said, listen, man, you clean up your mess.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And he would have continued playing games and stonewalling the regulators. And it would have been a much worse situation for sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, all the cloud service providers are doing extremely well. I mean, cloud is still the future of software and the cloud service providers are still growing really strongly. On Wiz, I think the most likely explanation is that they just want to keep building this as a standalone company. I think they're probably also worried that they can't get the deal through.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I like that statement. And if we were just talking about somebody who had learned their lesson, this wouldn't even be an issue. This is like events that happened a decade ago. Such a waste of our time and energy to even be talking about it. The problem is that you have people, really we're talking about Parker and Paul Graham, who are trying to smear somebody as a way to- You. Yeah, me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Look, Parker has this very complicated story, and the whole purpose of it is to exonerate himself, to basically say that he didn't engage in any wrongdoing, and somehow he was set up. Okay, it's ridiculous. I mean, I don't have that kind of power over the SEC. The SEC, they sent us a list of people they wanted to talk to. I was not on the list.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And I was like, well, wait, don't they want to talk to me? I'm the new CEO of the company. And the lawyer said, no, your discovery was clean as a whistle. They don't have any questions for you. They only want to talk to people who they saw in the discovery there was an issue. So the regulators prosecuted. They basically conducted this investigation. I had no impact over that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
The multiples that we have right now are not that insane. I mean, I think the long-term median software multiple is around a seven. So, you know, you see here the mid-growth median 7.7. We're about tracking at... the historical pre-COVID mean. And we had that really frothy, bubbly period in 2020 and 2021, and that's clearly over.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
It was a very serious issue. This was not made up. So I just think it kind of defies belief to now say that this, you know, all the regulatory compliance issues which played out over months were not an existential issue for the company. It certainly was. But look, we have better things to talk about. Do you see Ali Resnick's tweet?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, I can speak to some of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I've talked to a few people who are involved in this. Look, I think what happened is that in the wake of October 7th, there was obviously a very heated debate online. PG is on one side of that. He got into it as supporters of Israel on the other side. They accused him of saying anti-Semitic things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
He took offense to that and basically went over their heads to their bosses of a couple of different VC firms, at least two that I know of, where he basically went to the heads of these firms to express his displeasure, I guess, with these exchanges. And I think the feeling on the part of the junior VCs, because the people he was going over the heads of were not senior partners or whatever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
These were lower level to mid-level VCs at firms, you can understand how they would receive that. The head of YC is going over- Yeah, Paul Graham is a giant, yeah. Yeah, so he's basically going to the heads of their firm to seek a correction in their behavior, even though this wasn't like a workplace activity. And so they certainly felt intimidated and silenced by that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, clearly there's a double standard here because PG doesn't like being called names on Twitter. Yeah. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
He doesn't like his use being labeled, and he's willing to take those debates offline, go over the heads, not talk to the people who said those things, but then go to their bosses, the heads of their firm, maybe not threaten them, maybe not say, I don't think he said fire this person or whatever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
But like you said, there's always an implication of retaliation because people understand the way that YC operates. And certainly those junior level VCs experienced it as a form of intimidation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, it's also like rather hypocritical when he's super sensitive about this type of thing. But then he's instigating this pylon when on this whole Zenefits thing, he's basically single source from a disgruntled founder who has this vendetta, who's been nursing this thing for years. He's never talked to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Like I said, he's never even met me, but he's willing to call me the most evil person in all of Silicon Valley. And then again, instigate this pile on with like all these other people from Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, exactly. And then I saw like other people from YC, like Michael Siebel, who I think is actually a really cool guy. He's awesome. Yeah. Yeah. And then he's tweeting that like I somehow I put up my founders who were there were a lot of founders who basically spoke up. And I actually said, including many founders who came out of YC, say, you know, actually, David's been a great VC to us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And he's saying, oh, Saks must have put them up to it. No, I never asked anybody to do that. And a good reason why is I don't want to trouble my founders. Or drag them into this. Drag them into it. So I'm not going to make them do that. So I had nothing to do with that. But frankly, you know, old saying that every accusation is a confession. Uh-huh.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Maybe the reason why people at YC think that I might have done that is because that's kind of their playbook, is they create these online mobs. But what gives him the right to do that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Go for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I mean, I don't know if it's still growing at 100%, but I mean, I guess they're projecting... Even 50%, yeah, would be... Yeah, they're projecting a billion in ARR next year up from, what is it, roughly 500%. like that offer may not be that crazy. Again, you know, you're getting 10 times at a 30% average growth rate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So, you know, let's say they get to a billion in ARR next year and then they're forecasting, you know, whatever it is the year after, you know, the 23 may be reasonable. So I can see why these guys would just want to go for it if they think they're building a big standalone company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Wet your feet. We need to get merch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I don't have a lot to say about them, except actually this is that that company has some murky connections to the deep state. And yeah, well, apparently their fingerprints were all over, you know, Hillary's bleach server. Then there's been other reports, which I don't know exactly what to make of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I can say this, that in the wake of this, Elon announced that he was removing CrowdStrike from any of his company's servers. Similarly, I had my IT department check and make sure that we didn't have it running anywhere and we don't. I'm just going to be frank. I don't trust this company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Deep state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I'm going to wear a tinfoil hat today. I forgot. You believe what you want. That's what I believe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
What did you think about that reservation article thing? Oh, that's crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So all these closed models, which means open AI... and a bunch of these other folks, especially the ones that are sitting inside of these smaller companies, right? Snowflake has a model, I think Databricks has a model. There's a important question that has to be asked around the economic viability of these models in a world where open source is not only better and better funded,
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but they're iterating faster and the feature set is catching up to your needs. So the minute that SAC says he needs a longer context window, within a week, it's there.
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Yeah, I think this is like one of the... What do you think, J. Cole?
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It's just that Google can't afford to lose anything. Yeah. Everybody takes a point here and a point there. And all of a sudden, Google could be in the high 70s of search. And that would be economically disastrous for their stock. Yeah. You're going to have to make cuts. Why do you guys think the stock is down? Why is the stock down 16%? I have a theory as to why. Tell us your theory. Go for it.
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I think that there's a few times a quarter where you can really see the dispersion in the stock market between what I would call the smart money and everybody else. So using betting language, the sharps and the squares. And I think Meta was an example of the Sharps taking a line, which I think is very accurate. And Tesla was the other great example this quarter.
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And so if you look inside of Meta, and this Freeberg mentioned this earlier, I think Freeberg, what people really reacted negatively to was the total quantum of spending and the idea that it's misallocated, not to AI, but specifically to NVIDIA.
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And the reason is that, and we've mentioned this before, I've tried to talk a lot about this with Jonathan Ross from Grok, but AI is really two markets, training and inference. And inference is going to be 100 times bigger than training. And NVIDIA is really good at training and very miscast at inference. The problem is that right now we need to see a CapEx build cycle for inference.
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And there are so many cheap and effective solutions. Grok being one of them, but there are many others. And I think why the market reacted very negatively was it did not seem that Facebook understood that distinction, that they were way overspending and trying to allocate a bunch of GPU capacity towards inference that didn't make sense. And so I think what people were saying is, hold on a second.
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So far, your plays are perfect. It's everything we want you to do. We want you to scorch the earth. We want you to open source the headset, but we also want you to understand the difference between training and inference in a little bit more of a nuanced way. Build up the inference capacity, but spend a lot less money because you don't need to spend it on NVIDIA.
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And the reason is the sharps know that NVIDIA cannot do inference. And so I think that's why the stock is down this much. And I think it's important for people who care about AI, but also may traffic in NVIDIA to understand why the sharps think that. And I think several of us have tried to explain it now for the last couple of weeks, but it is miscast. And so you're overspending.
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Sharps love it. This is another one, sharps versus the squares. Why did the sharps love it? Why did it go up and everybody was so confused? And I think the answer is that he's actually executing exactly to plan. And so if you're investing in a stock, what you really want is a CEO to kind of stick to a plan that is well-known.
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So we don't have to actually guess what the plan is because he puts it out on the website. Look at the master plan part two. And if you start reading down, everything that he said he's going to do starting in 2016 is basically what it is. So let's take the first part. Right. What did he say in the first part? He said, hey, listen, guys, this is 2016. We're going to build a Model 3.
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We're going to build a compact SUV, the Model Y. We're going to build a new kind of pickup truck. OK, check, check and check. Then he said, oh, by the way, we're also probably going to have to do a heavy duty truck and a high passenger density urban transport vehicle. So that's the robo taxi thing that he's going to announce in August. OK. check and check.
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And then he talks about the software and the investment in FSD and trying to get to a place where, you know, you can just have a much higher probability that it will save you from an accident and it'll keep you safe when you're driving your car, which will be a large driver of why people want to buy the cars themselves. And you can see like these FSD models. So if you're a smart capital allocator,
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what you actually saw was a dislocated stock price. What you saw was a plan that by and large, he's been executing on at a strategic level. Underneath, there's the vicissitudes. What are the vicissitudes? Sometimes you overhire, you need to trim some fat. Sometimes you overspend on CapEx. Now, he spent about a billion of CapEx's quarter on AI infrastructure, so H100s for training.
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But the market saw through it because that was a reasonable amount of money to spend on training for FSD. So you can start to see the tail of these two reactions. The Sharps looked at the capital allocation and said, okay, you missed by $2.5 billion this quarter, but that's going to create a buying opportunity because we think it's roughly mispriced.
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And we think it's mispriced because going back to this plan from 2016, this is all the things that we've been underwriting from $40 billion of market cap to $750 billion, and now we're getting a 40% discount to buy back in. So I think it's a really interesting moment to just contrast and compare what Sharps look at and then what the media breathlessly exaggerates.
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And I think what they wanted was to lionize the meta earning story, but the Sharps rejected it and they wanted to dump on Elon and the Sharps rejected that in size in both cases. And it's just a reminder to all of us, be very careful what you're reading. Because if you just took the headlines, you would have expected the two reactions to be exactly opposite.
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But when you vote with money, it's very clear and unambiguous because you actually move in the direction of accuracy. And that's what the stock market allows you to see. And I think this is a really interesting contrast to compare sharps versus squares here.
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ride sharing is number one, the absolute probably by an order of magnitude. And the reason I say that is in order for ride sharing and ride hailing to really work the way that they envision it, you will have level five autonomy and supported in jurisdictions where, again, if you just look at Part Deux, the whole point is you can summon a car from your app.
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And if you don't have access to a mobile phone, you can go to these bus stop equivalents and just press a button and the car comes to you. And so in that world, there's just so much value add in terms of passenger safety and sustainability for the environment and less traffic. It's a gargantuan game changer.
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What do you got, Sax, going around the horn here?
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Like, is it awkward when you tip $50 in ones like that? Like, doesn't it become really thick?
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I think it's a pretty obvious disruption if... So today in America, if you look at the energy infrastructure, the utilities keep raising rates. And they keep raising rates independent of what it costs to generate energy. There are 1,700 utilities in America. They are, by law, obligated to spend, I think in the next 10 years, about $2 trillion on CapEx.
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they will pass all of those costs plus a margin to consumers, even though in these next 10 years, the cost of generating an incremental unit of energy will be essentially free. So I think the very disruptive play is to take 100 million homes and make them mini utilities. Same one. What does it mean, make them utilities? You go to a website.
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Again, the biggest investment I've made is in a company called Palmetto. They are close to now the largest residential solar business in the United States, if not the largest already. Now, what do they do? You're a consumer, you can go and lease or buy, it doesn't really matter. And we give you a super cheap system that goes on top of your roof, plus a battery system.
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And all of a sudden, you're totally resilient and independent of the utilities. And we help change the laws so that every time you have excess energy, you can put it back into the grid and get paid, which is called net metering. So if you have 100 million of these mini utilities competing against 1700 incumbents that are forced to make huge investments and are mispriced,
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that's an upheaval of an enormous amount of market cap, but also an enormous amount of debt. There's like trillions of dollars of debt.
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So I've always thought a ginormous directional bet to make would be to go long the disruptor, the person that helps arm the rebels in this case would be the person that arms 100 million homes, and then eventually at some point just short the debt of these utilities because they won't be able to service them if enough people quit and don't need PG&E and everybody else.
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it'll be just massively, massively disruptive. So that's why I think that that market could be big. I like the... Optimist market.
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The only thing that I'll say is in my experience, when I've looked at these generalized robots, the conclusion that I came to, and I could be totally wrong, is I suspect instead of having a generalized robot, you have very specific use case robots that look differently.
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So for example, there's an example, Nick, you can throw a picture, but there's something called intuitive surgical, which is essentially a robot that operates on you. And if you look at that, it doesn't look anything like what you would think a robot would look like. It just looks like a ginormous machine.
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And so I suspect that there will be people that become experts in these vertical use cases, and that will limit the TAM for a generalized approach. I could be totally wrong, but that's sort of why I ranked them the way I ranked them. But I'm pretty convinced that Robotaxis are number one, and then this energy thing that upends these 1,700 utilities in America is number two.
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Yeah, it's almost, I think it's 18%. It's almost 20%. It's a huge number now.
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I mean, people die when these blackouts and outages occur. And also, like we saw in San Carlos here in the Bay Area, Nat gas lines explode. PG&E is responsible for forest fires. I mean, if you can do your part to basically get off these grids... use somebody like Palmetto or somebody else and just get solar Tesla and be done with it.
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And at least you're not contributing to some of these downstream errors.
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Yeah. I consider it... It's interesting you bring this up. You're creating plausible deniability, but it's still a bribe.
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So I think... I don't want to be a proponent of this, by the way, but bleep out his name, was saying that, Jason, with FSD, they're very strict that you have to be holding the steering wheel and stuff. Yes. But you can go to Alibaba and buy something that hacks that, right? It's a wait.
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No, no, no, no, no, no. I'm not promoting this. I'm just saying that it doesn't exist.
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Yeah.
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No, no, a remote safety driver. Remote, remote. But I have to say, watching this video, that is the coolest bloody thing. I mean, this is amazing. I'll be honest.
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Me too. I totally agree with you.
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But what is it?
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Just explain to me the market, guys. I'm not sure I get it. So there's Waymo and Cruise. It's Uber. But there's Waymo and Cruise, which are like, there's no drivers. And then there's Uber and Lyft, where there are drivers.
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That's the basic... Right? Is that? Yeah. That's right.
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Yeah. Have you taken one?
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Yeah. You have to download the Waymo app?
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I don't see non-competes having any value in any market except East Coast financial markets. I've heard of folks getting something called beach leave, typically in finance. These are Wall Street jobs, hedge fund jobs. So I know it exists there.
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Like if you leave hedge fund A and you're going to go to hedge fund B, they make you sit on ice for six months or nine months, garden leave, I think maybe they call it. And the whole idea is that you don't take any active market thoughts to your next job. For what Freeberg said, I just think the whole thing doesn't make much sense.
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I mean, like intellectual property is the least valuable it's ever been. right? More people develop things now via trade secret than patents. The whole patent system has become a little bit of a game. We just talked about open source, right? They have less and less value. So innovation is happening in plain sight.
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And so I don't think companies are actually thinking about this issue at all anymore. They're paying people because they need to pay more to get the best and brightest. So I think if you're hoping to rely on one of these agreements, if you're an employer, I think that you should just forget about them and just hire the best people, pay them the best, and if they suck, fire them.
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But you can do that now. I don't see it actually doing anything bad.
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No, no, no. I'm not disputing that it doesn't exist. I'm saying, where do you see it actually having negative repercussions in California? The point of the fact that it doesn't exist here is also seemingly that it doesn't mean anything.
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In that example, you'd still need to have come up with hundreds of millions of CapEx to implement it, whatever you know. So SACs, any thoughts? I just don't think these things mean anything.
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It just tends to be examples, Jason, over and over of markets that don't really matter that much relying on these things and markets that are dynamic and add value in humanity, just moving past them. So it probably makes sense for all of us to just go move past them.
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That's really well said. That's exactly what I was trying to say. That's well said.
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You guys know the story, right? Like Steve Chen, before he started YouTube, was an engineer at Facebook. And there was like, at one point, I remember being in some meeting where I was like, oh, I think we found an early version of the YouTube code on an old laptop that was a Facebook laptop that Steve owned. So I remember like the GC was like, I think we technically own YouTube.
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That's a good general counsel.
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Cannot use your work computer.
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Oh my God.
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Of course.
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You know, there's that very famous email that Steve Jobs sent to Bruce Chisholm. which goes something along the lines of, dear Bruce, it's come to my attention that Apple never recruits from Adobe, but it seems like Adobe is actively recruiting Apple employees. One of our practices have to change.
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Surf the web. Right.
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What an incredible... What an incredible... Are we doing a walk down memory lane of our Steve Jobs stories? Do you have one? I have two, but I... Give us one.
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when, when it was merged into AOL to create AOL music was this guy, Kevin Conroy, great guy. And Kevin basically got us runway to launch a 99 cent music download store. And we were able to use AOL's cards on file. So there was like 25 or 30 million credit cards. And we were able to use Warner Brothers Music Library because AOL had merged with Time Warner.
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And so we launched this 99-cent music store, and it performed phenomenally. And I went and I did demos for Walt Mossberg, Takara. I went to Apple, I showed James Higa, Eddie Q, Steve Jobs, all these guys, and AOL just couldn't do anything with the data.
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We kept pushing, Kevin kept pushing, but they were just so tied up in their own political nonsense, they wouldn't green light it becoming more than a beta. And then nine months later, the 99 cent download store launched on iTunes. And I was just like, oh my God, this is execution. And they had all the labels, And it was a thousand times better experience than we created.
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But it was the first time where I stumbled into something relatively accidentally and just got, frankly, owned by an organization that's just a thousand times better.
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He was the greatest. He was the absolute greatest. I have one other story, but I'm not going to share it. You know what segment people loved last week? I interviewed with him for a job.
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Right when I left Facebook.
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It's like so littered with my failures and my insecurities, but okay.
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When you're so damn successful, be self-deprecating. Share with your brothers. There was basically somebody at a well-known recruiting firm who pinged me and said, hey, there could be a consult. This is right when I was leaving Facebook. And I had a pretty large... project that never saw the light of day, which was this Facebook phone.
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Although people in the ecosystem knew that we were working on it. So, you know, Samsung and Intel were our partners and AT&T and all this stuff. Anyways, long story short, there was a rumor that they wanted to consolidate iPhone into one business unit, right? And at the time, it was kind of like very balkanized or whatever.
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And I got approached by a recruiter saying they're thinking of creating a role which is kind of like head of iPhone. And at that point, I was like, this is in 2011. And I was adamant that I would never work for anybody until I heard it was Steve Jobs. And I was like, I will do whatever he says. You were ready to bend the knee. Dude, I would have driven his car. I would have... Yes, sir.
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I would have driven that car. I was like... You'd be driving Miss Daisy?
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And I went through a couple of interviews. I'm not going to get into those details. And at the end of it, it was like, well... He's not going to become, he's not going to be the CEO. You know, he's going to become executive chairman. And so you'll be reporting to Tim Cook. And that's where that process died. They said I wasn't a good cultural fit for Apple in the new era.
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Now, and then it turned out what happened? Yeah, you would not have been.
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So then I went and I started Social Capital, but that was my only job interview that I had. when I was leaving Facebook, and it was, for me, I had the same reaction as Freeburg. I was like a kid meeting his, I don't even wanna call it idol. I think I was like a believer meeting Jesus. That's how it felt.
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It's time that famous clip of you asking him that question where you basically was looking at you like that's a very famous one, because that that you you really got the better of him, I thought, which is pretty good.
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Okay, you got it.
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800 million when I left.
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They're taking a play that we talked about, which makes a ton of sense, which is it's not a core market. but it's very important. The core money-making market for them is monetizing their family of apps. And so they're scorching the earth for these new markets so that the economics are not viable, which will, I think, allow a more robust ecosystem where they'll have more of a say.
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That was gross. That was gross. I've never had a problem getting a reservation at any restaurant in New York.
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Because I think up until this point, you could have said that they and Google were sort of lagging behind OpenAI. But I don't think that's the case. And by the way, this is the strategy that we talked about 16 months ago that these big companies should take. I just think it's worth listening to what we said and then basically what Zuck said just right now. Here we go.
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I think the thing to keep in mind is that the reason why the government is banning TikTok, and I'm totally speculating and guessing, has nothing to do with these silly little videos. But it is that the overwhelming majority of the people that download TikTok keep the microphone on, and it is an ambient passive surveillance device.
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And I think to the extent that a foreign government has access to whatever you hear ambiently and randomly while the app is not even being used is the real problem here. And so I think that that's effectively what this is, is a listening device into enough Americans. And I think that that's pretty scary to folks.
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The second thing is with respect to the actual product itself, in the absence of that algorithm, which I think is just incredible, as somebody who was a voracious user of that app until I deleted it, I don't think the product is much of anything. It's probably no better or no worse than shorts or reels or some of these other alternatives.
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So I don't see the economic justification for anybody who already has one of these assets to buy these things because the content is roughly the same now. It is the thing that makes that app is the algo. But the videos are everywhere. They're on YouTube. They're on Instagram. They're everywhere.
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So I don't see why anybody would pay a lot of money for this, especially in the absence of the algorithm. This is my honest thought. What do you think, Jacob?
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This is a black and white flashback. Chamath in a turtleneck. Go. I think that Google will open source their models because the most important thing that Google can do is reinforce the value of search. And the best way to do that is to scorch the earth with these models, which is to make them widely available and as free as possible.
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One quick thing. I think what Zach said is really interesting about them then going after Telegram. The big issue that I think Telegram has always had is that it is encrypted, but it has its own form of encryption that they rolled themselves, right? Like typically, I think WhatsApp and a lot of these other folks just use pretty standard signal.
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I think as well use SHA-256 encryption, which is like pretty standard. But there's always a fear that the US government actually can unencrypt that and has some kind of a backdoor. That was always the fear of SSG-256. And so Pavel Durov and his team basically rolled his own, which is also 256-bit symmetric encryption, but different standard altogether.
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And what people would say is, hold on, he has the backdoor to Sachse's point. So that was always the claim, counterclaim between these things of why Telegram was always painted in more of a sketchy corner. I'm not saying that it's true. And I think that if they go after it, I think it's because this underlying encryption model is something that we can't get access to.
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And so they'd rather just eliminate it to your dis-access point.
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That will cause Microsoft to have to catch up, and that will cause Facebook to have to really look in the mirror and decide whether they're going to cap the betting that they've made
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Me too. A hundred times worse.
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That's so easy, by the way. Have we eliminated the FISA courts entirely? We don't need those anymore either? They can just do whatever they want?
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on arvr and reallocate very aggressively to ai that should be what facebook does and the reason is if facebook and google and microsoft have roughly the same capability in the same model there's an element of machine learning called reinforcement learning and specifically it's reinforcement learning from human feedback facebook has an enormous amount of reinforcement learning inside of facebook every click
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This is insane. Insane. This is ridiculous. These things will never pass.
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every comment, every like, every share, the huge companies will create the substrates. And I think they'll be forced to scorch the earth and give it away for free. Now you can see what Zuck said last week.
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All right, everybody, this is the World's Greatest Podcast. By the way, Jason, if you do decide in the end to vote for Biden, I'll send you some luxury tents that you and your kids could sleep in. You can tell them stories about how you voted for him. It's so brutal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And... Is that the largest and most listened to podcast in the world?
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That is, I think, the definition of scorched earth. And he's running a really perfect play so far. He's open sourced the headset OS. He's opening sourced these models. He stopped training, I think, for Lama 3.5, was it? And now he's moved directly to Lama 4 just to try to head off GPT-5 at the pass. So what are we seeing? We're seeing the economic value getting disintegrated.
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There is no value in foundational models economically. So then the question is, who can build on top of them the fastest? And Jason, to your point, Lama was announced last Thursday. 14 hours later, Grok actually had that model deployed in the Grok cloud so that 100,000 plus developers could start building on it. That's why that model is so popular.
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So it puts the closed models on their heels because if you can't both train and deploy iteratively and quickly enough, these open source alternatives will win. And as a result, the economic potential that you have to monetize those models will not be there. And what that does is reinforce the existing economic moat that Facebook already has in monetizing their apps.
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Now, why the stock went down, I'd like to talk in contrast to Tesla a little bit later, because this has nothing to do with that. And it's more about squares versus sharps in the stock market.
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Oh, all the time. Yeah, sure.
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A pretty industrious kid, it turns out.
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Yeah, Sachs is elite. He's got the $100 bill pressed into his palm, shakes the guy's hand.
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And by the way, you just said something really interesting before, which is, okay, there's a limitation, right? You mentioned the context window, which was a problem. I just found this thing today. They solved it. Now they're at 96K context. Yeah, that's amazing. So to your point, Sax, this market is moving so fast because you cannot compete with open source.
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Come around here. Let's present. So what do we have? Come on, you're not on camera.
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Well, if we look at previous performance as an indicator of future success, the answer is no, they're not going to cut spending. Most of the reports out say they're going to spend another $10 trillion in the next administration, independent of who you vote for. And I think that's actually what you have to think about here is where does all that money wind up, right?
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It's certainly not going to trickle down. And what's probably going to happen is it's going to find its way into equities. And that's why these equities are so high is because people are recognizing correctly that if we do spend another 10 trillion and go another 10 trillion into debt, that money winds up somewhere. Where does it wind up? government salaries, contracts.
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And if we get a tax cut as well, that's going to goose. And I think one party will do a tax cut and spend eight, nine, 10 trillion. The other party will spend 10 trillion and maybe raise taxes a little bit. It's going to net that into the same place. And then I think what we'll see on top of that is
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This is, it looks like a deep hole, 1986 Chateau Coutet. I mean, this looks like it's worth opening. I mean, it was in the rack that said don't open, right, Sean? Yes, sir.
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what I think could be cataclysmic contraction in white collar employment in the United States over the next four to 10 years next to administrations. And that's going to exacerbate this problem and create, I think, some social tension because we've had record low unemployment.
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And so even though people feel bad about the economy generally, and some of that is related to which parties, which party you're a part of and how you perceive the economy and all this data, But just brass tacks, you know, we had the lowest unemployment of our lifetime for the past five, 10 years. And it's been absolutely fabulous and salaries have gone up.
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And this is going to result in, I think, a little bit of austerity measures coming at some point, probably won't come in this next administration, but certainly the one after that is going to have to do some belt tightening. And we're going to have to address this issue because spending everybody in America having to pay their share of that interest alone is $3,500.
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I mean, let that sink in, you're going to spend for every member of your family $3,500 a year in interest, that's your part of it, take the 1.3 trillion, it's just a lot of money. And if that is the case, it's going to create a massive bubble in equities again. And then if you look inside of the big companies,
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Three or four years ago, Uber, Airbnb, Google, and Facebook had more employees or the same number of employees they have now while growing, those companies are all growing 20% year over year. So the earnings and the top line of these companies continue to grow while they have a static team size. This is like an extraordinary thing we haven't seen.
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So the two pieces here that we haven't seen before is what happens when you put another, I don't know, $20 trillion of debt into the US economy. And what happens when companies, the big ones stop hiring, and they just become wildly efficient and become wildly profitable.
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And this will be a renters, renters, you know, story where people who have equities and people who own property are going to do fabulous over the next five to 10 years, and then the 40% 50% of people who don't are going to really be feeling a pinch.
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Are you wearing my goddamn sweater?
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Well, that's no good, just pour it out. But you know what, pour half out, because I like the bottom half, the texture. So just pour half into the garden, hit it with the spinach, and then I'll take the bottom half. Thank you.
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I mean, I think trading is a mistake. Time in market is better than trying to time the market. And as I said before, where is all this money going to flow, all this spending?
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i don't think so and i i do think there's another thing that's worth sort of unpacking here because when you do see people feel like the economy is working against them all kinds of interesting movements start cultural movements etc and i think that's what we're seeing in this election is people who believe in capitalism and free markets and people who don't people who believe in free speech people who don't people who see themselves as victims victims and then other people who see them as creators and
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I slept so good. Let me tell you something. I will compare my sleep here tonight. The lady of Saks Manor just texted me and she would like me to stay there tonight. So, you know, when I'm in the Valley, I get a lot of different invites. I have to spread the wealth. So I'll be dining with the Saxes tonight and I may be staying at Saxes.
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I really study a lot of like what young people are doing. And I don't know if you guys are watching sort of the anti-work movement or the fire movement, which is financial independence, retire early. A lot of young people now are looking at financial markets, whether it's Robinhood or Coinbase, or prize picks, whatever market it is, young men especially.
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And they're saying, I need to control my destiny. I need to, this capitalism is not working for me. I need to own equities. I need to make trades. And I need to retire early and have experiences because the capitalist system is broken to some extent. And then there's another group of people who are just anti-work. And there was this term back in the day called NEET, not employed NEET.
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not being educated and not in training, basically, the people who are called the unproductive. And if you look at the peak, engagement and employment in our country, and Japan has similar trends, although they're probably 10 years ahead of us, it sounds sounds anything but neat. Yeah, it's not. But we peaked at 68 69% labor participation, and we're 10% off that maybe more, maybe we're at 61 or 62.
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I think a lot of people are going to give up because the debt is going to be so crushing that the logical thing to do, if you don't think you can get out from under it, might be to move in with your parents or two or three other people, tighten your belts and enjoy life and go skiing and go have experiences. And a lot of young people are electing to do that.
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In other words, they're opting out of the American dream.
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I call them gen bet. They're the generation that believes on... There's this subset of them. It's not all of them. A number of them are just quiet quitting, and they just don't believe in capitalism. And then there's this other group which are trying to get control. I call them gen bet because they just want to bet on themselves and...
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if they don't get wrecked by the financial markets trading options and doing price picks.
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These folks are the first generation who didn't go into debt in college and didn't buy into that. Like so they might the millennials ahead of them might have like taken the bullets, you know.
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Wait, did you say 50% of Gen Zers aspire to be influencers? Correct. Okay, 57% as their career, or just they want to be influential and build a brand around themselves. I wonder, that's what they want to do for a living. That's what they would like what they want their paycheck to be interesting.
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They want to be independent, and they don't think they believe this, they believe the system's rigged against them. And why wouldn't you think the system's rigged against you if you went 150 or 250k in debt, and you couldn't get a good job?
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What the... Don't worry about your wife. Oh, my God. Come on in. Amore, this part is great. Where is Nat? Hold on, I'm calling Nat.
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Yeah, one thing I did build and sell two out of my three businesses over the years But there are tens of millions of people making money in the long tail as a content creator and it's low thousands of dollars in some cases per month.
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But if you combine that with people who are gig economy workers and they don't believe in the system because they worked really hard, they got this job at Google, they went to the office, then they got laid off and nobody cares about them. Now they're getting dragged back into the office. They still have these payments.
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And then they look at this other system where, hey, they started to get 10,000 followers. They started to make $1,000 a month and $3,000 a month. They actually see a path to being independent of a system that has no loyalty to me. And that's what I hear from folks. And I think it's great.
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If we're not gonna be loyal as like corporations to individuals, those individuals are now responding and the antidote to that poison of just being laid off randomly or being dragged back to the office after you're told you can work from home, all that stuff, They now believe, hey, I can be independent, and then you have to fight to get my services. And I think that's what this is about.
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We're going to talk about Starbucks later, and I think that's a big part of the Starbucks problem. Having a side hustle makes you anti-fragile. You have other sources of income, and you can tell your boss to F off. And that's what young people are doing. I've seen it. I've seen people just quit jobs and just say, you know what? I've got other ways to make money. And I don't have a big burn rate.
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And so that's smart for young people to do that. And I think my advice would be to build your brand, be as independent as possible, and to make things in the world and show people what you made. That's the best thing you can do.
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Just moderate the show. Well, no, I was just, I was going to be traveling and I wanted to do a good job. And I, you know, I thought maybe you, you would love to get your chance at moderation. So. Lead us off here, Fearless, Jay Freiberg.
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That's interesting. I had a couple of my startups get offers. I've had three or four secondary offers in the last two weeks I've had to deeply consider, and they weren't like 75%. What kind of companies? Let's see. Two are SaaS, and then one I can't say because it would be too easy to guess. But the bottom feeders went from offering like an 80% discount to now a 25% discount.
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You know you're not allowed to sell your shares and all in, right? I'm trying. I'm trying. Brad Gerstner's bought 7% so far. So I'm quickly offloading to Gerstner as much as I can.
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He's going to own 7%. He gets 16 minutes per episode. You know what? If he'll moderate, I'll have him. I mean, this is moderation going, okay, or should I jump in and save the show?
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This is definitely the high end of normal. Nick, if you pull up the PE chart, this is the obvious one to look at is not just how dramatic the stock market peaks are, but the price to earnings ratio. And it's at the high end of normal at like, I don't know, for a 25 PE ratio on average.
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We've seen this. Austerity measures in Europe were pretty hard for people in Greece and Spain to get their heads around. I think Americans are going to have to get used to we can't just spend and give handouts constantly. On the equity side, though, there's also the concept, Sax, that you can cut spending and increase earnings and that that's well within your control as a CEO and board.
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And that's exactly what we've seen coming out of COVID. And I said it here a couple of years ago. I think the earnings are going to do well because people have this other lever and they can just turn the dial and reduce spending and increase earnings. And it's like, oh, that's painful. But it's not so painful that it's not worth doing. And so corporations have gotten religion.
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around cost cutting and austerity and increasing earnings. The question is, and individuals have to, so they're pushing out buying new cars and spending on travel. So then what happens? When does the government get that austerity that companies and individuals are forced to do? And that's the problem you keep talking about, Freiburg, is this entire election cycle is about who can give more free .
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Enough with the free shit. Like somebody's got to be an adult in the room and say, we don't have any more free shit left.
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Do you think it's over, J. Cal? I'll go with Nate. I mean, I think Nate's probably the best thinker on this, who I think puts a lot of effort into it. And if he says it's 50-50 with a slight advantage to Trump, I think I would go with his gut. But he's saying don't trust anybody. I don't trust the prediction markets.
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And I think the prediction markets are closing that gap as we get closer because they are easily manipulated. Polymarket is only offshore, right? The U.S. market is not allowed to participate in polymarket. So it's all foreign investors. Now, of course, Americans could be putting money overseas somehow and using foreign accounts to place these bets.
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I'm guessing if you were a sharp and you really want to make money, that's what you would do. So I don't know what percentage of it.
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It's a crypto based site. So you get the benefit of like, you can track some amount of this on blockchains and then eventually find the person. But because it's crypto as well, you can also hide yourself pretty well with tumblers and other systems. So I would discount Polymarket a bit. It's probably not as extreme as it seems, but it does seem like
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kamala has not helped herself with the interviews they haven't been great and um you know it is a toss-up and so so any surprise yeah any october surprise still coming i mean there's been a few attempts the last couple days i mean it seems like the rhetoric for the last 24 hours there have been some really gnarly ones that we shouldn't give it i don't think we should give any credence to but
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some republicans have been coming out talking about like a really gnarly one about the republican side and I mean, it's not much more gnarly than other things that have been said about Trump already and judgments that Trump is against him already for $100 million. So it's in that vein. But I do think that that looks to me like it's cap.
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And I think there's going to be a lot of fake news, maybe even deep fakes that come out, you know, in the last week or two. So I think people should not trust anything they see on social media. Be very careful with that information.
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The good news is we might drink some tequila. Sex. We might have some tequila. So you have something to look forward to. And you get to see your friends. You get to see your friends. That's worth it, right? Say yes, David. This is where you say yes. No comment, he says.
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Pandemic was his favorite holiday of all time. What's your favorite holiday, Zach? Pandemic. Can we have that back?
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And then in terms of thinking about why people believe that Trump is an existential threat to democracy, I encourage everybody who's a fan of this podcast to go back to episode 16 of the All In podcast. And that's the episode where we all reacted the week of January 6th.
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And we all had great consensus amongst us that we thought this was one of the most disgusting, horrific days in the history of the country and that Trump was trying to overthrow the election results and that he was doing so in a non-democratic fashion.
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I know some people have re-underrated or changed their positions, but I encourage you all to pause this episode and go back and listen to our very thoughtful discussion on episode 16 of the All In podcast, because we were scared as well.
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Bring back the pandemic. Sox, are you serving Wagyu tonight?
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Yeah, and that's fine. That's your belief. But I do think there's another group of people who agree with your original assessment.
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Yeah, listen to what I said.
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And listen to what Zach said and listen to what Freebrook said. I thought we had a very productive discussion when it happened. I think people have memory hold it.
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I would agree with that. We're going to make it through whatever. Hold on, let me just give one thing. To your point, Shema, since I am challenging you with that episode 16 call-out, I do hope that whoever wins, we all support that person to do the best they can for all Americans. And that's always been my commitment, and I did it the last two times. And we will survive this one.
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Well, you know, I talked to Chef, and he said Morel's not in season, but we are on the tail end of Black Truffle, so we have that locked in, but we're too early for Morel's, obviously. That's a spring. Okay, Jason. We're going to miss White Truffle.
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I don't think we'll survive two or three of these cycles if we spend $10 trillion each time.
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I mean... Let's be honest. A picanha is an underrated cut of meat. People say it's like a serviceable meat, but when cooked properly, with proper technique, it will stand right up there with a ribeye or a New York strip.
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What's a picanha?
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I mean, it's a very simple way to do it. Number one, the border got out of control. We've shut it down already, and we're going to tighten it even more. Number two, the stock market's out of record for a reason. Number three, the employment is at the lowest it's ever been in our lifetimes. This is as good as it gets, folks. And if you go with the other guy, look at what he did on campaign manager.
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Let me even finish. Number four, this person overturned Roe v. Wade. That's what they're doing. And his VP candidate has said he wanted a national ban. They walked that back. But if you're a woman, you shouldn't trust them. And number five, obviously, you saw what happened on January 6th. He'll do it again. And you got the job, Jason. They just said that over and over. And listen, I'm not Biden.
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Biden obviously needs to retire. He was a great president. He was a great vice president. We thank him for his service. I'm completely different. I have a different approach to all of this. And Trump is a wild card that this country doesn't need at this time. The end. And they would win. But I don't know who's advising her. It's the same thing with Trump.
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I think Trump could have just gone right to the middle. And when he was Trump 2.0, he should be up 20 points on her. The fact that he's not up 20 points or 15 points on Kamala and that this is a dead heat, I think is crazy. Trump's the easiest candidate to beat. Kamala is the easiest candidate to beat. I wonder who's running both of these campaigns.
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Yeah, I think that's fair.
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To handle the border is just so simple. She could just say, what worked then is not going to work now. We've filled up and we just, Trudeau just did a tweet. Hey, we're taking a pause for two years. That's all she's got to do. We're taking a pause for two years on the border. We obviously, it got out of control. The end, we'll move on to the next issue.
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Your doom loop was a good call.
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It's got a fat cap on it, which can sometimes be a little overwhelming for people, but Sean did a great job of kind of meeting us halfway, so it wasn't so fatty, just a nice layer of fat, crisped perfectly, cooked to perfection. Carrots were great.
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Have you guys seen this? I go to Starbucks on the regular. And I think this really is just a case of founder versus bean counter. It reminds me of Boeing or even Apple with their inability to produce new products post the Steve Jobs era. pipeline of products, and if you, has anybody read Pour Your Heart Into It, Schultz's biography?
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It's absolutely fantastic, and he really had an obsession with user experience, like writing people's names on the cups was a Starbucks innovation, remembering people's names, empowering the green aprons was like a big part of this, and then once he was at it and the bean counters came in, and they just got all about efficiency. A much smaller number of baristas at the store,
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ordering your drink through the app, and just trying to make these grind it efficiency decisions, as opposed to the experience ones. And I think the Starbucks experience starts and begins with the baristas. And that's the main problem.
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If you've gone to a Starbucks over the last couple years, sometimes you go in, and there are literally 50 drinks from the, like, I'm not kidding, like 50 drinks on the pickup counter. And then this huge line, if you come in person, And it's the most impersonal thing. And the stores are a wreck. They're disgusting. They look like a truck stop.
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And the whole point of Starbucks was to create this third space, this beautiful place that was welcoming with gorgeous lighting. And the baristas were supposed to make you hang out and enjoy yourself there. And they lost that. And all you have to do is read Schultz's book and do exactly what he did. Now, there are a lot of other issues there.
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around the competition for Starbucks employees that I think are super important.
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I had no notes. I talked to Sean after I had no notes. Okay.
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I think you want to maintain the core is the key. You don't want to give up the core. And the core was having a great in-store experience. And I think that is not what you get when you go there. Putting the sugar aside, It is, I think, like going for ice cream for kids. So my kids will pick if they want to go for ice cream or Starbucks.
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And to your point about the Sugar Chamath, it's basically the same profile. And it's a great place to get breakfast, I'll tell you that. You know, the egg bites and the scones are great.
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Oh my God, the burnt sugar apple.
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You're a New York State guy?
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Yeah. Oh my God. What? Oh, that's disgusting. You guys are savages. I think you just lost like, I think you just lost three swing states by saying you want to overcook your shrimp steak.
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But it doesn't it argue towards the original business freebird that going there and having a cup of coffee and hanging out leisurely with your friends and having a conversation and it being a third space is the core value prop. And maybe the sugary drinks maybe will fall out of fashion.
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Shout out to Raoul's and Balthazar, two best steak au poivre in Manhattan, in my estimation. Okay, steak au poivre. Let's get started. Welcome to... Why don't we call an audible tonight and go for steak au poivre? Yeah. Just throw out the miso cod and the Wagyu and let's just redo it.
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It's like impossible. In some ways, both of these businesses are victims of their own success. They reach market saturation. They reach their natural audience and then some, and they've just got to figure out what to do next, and the adjacencies are hard to find. Vision pros are hard adjacencies.
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Stop changing the interface, Apple.
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I think they're trying to change things for change. One of the things Amazon's gotten correct and other services like eBay and Craigslist is when you have an interface that works and billions of people rely on it, you have to be very, very subtle in making changes to it. And they made a wholesale change to the Photos app and it did not work.
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That's when you know you failed as a product manager when people want the old thing. But isn't this just so lazy? Something's not right. Yeah.
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The control center is what he's showing and the control center is massively confusing. It's like changing where the lights are in your bedroom and like... Okay. Yeah.
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Do it again and say you put in heavy cream. You're going to get kicked out of MAGA. This is horrible, Sax. You cannot be ordering oat milk and be MAGA. They don't have nut milks at Mar-a-Lago.
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Don't touch it. I'll talk to her at lunch. I'll talk to her at lunch. She's putting a sundress on.
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How outrageous.
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You did a good job.
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It is. You know what? I did some shopping while I was here. I did a little shopping. So I just, I filled up. These ASAPs are great because I don't have these at my house. I have ivory soap, so I got a couple of these from the guest room.
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I think the thing is, look, if you think about the pendulum of culture in Silicon Valley, we used to have a very tough culture of founder-led businesses where there was extremely high expectations. And if you transgressed, it was very punitive.
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And then the pendulum swung all the way to the other opposite end where you had this like coddling daycare type approach that existed for like the last 15 or 20 years. And probably what OpenAI is is an example of a company that needs to be run a little bit more like the former but stuck with a bunch of people that still pull it towards to be the latter.
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And that's the cultural tension that they're going to have to sort out because in order to be this incredible bastion of like AGI and innovation, I suspect that it's going to look more like a three-letter agency in terms of security and protocols in the next five or 10 years, then it is going to look like the Googleplex. And I think they just need to own that.
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And this is probably a little bit of an insight into that tension. And they're going to have to go more in that direction. I think it's a good insight. You're not going to be allowed to build these incredibly crazy world-beating technologies where people are running around in an eight-seater bicycle. It's just not going to work, guys.
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I think it's a really incredibly fun moment if you're involved in anything AI-related, just because it shows the level of investment that NVIDIA's customers are making into making this new reality available for everybody, right?
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So when you're spending effectively $100 billion a year on the capex of chips, and then a couple hundred billion more on all the related infrastructure, and then another couple hundred billion more on power, you're talking about half a trillion to three quarters of a trillion dollars a year being spent to bring AI forward to the masses. So I think that's the really positive take.
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The other exciting thing is if you're on the other side of the Nvidia trade, which is you're working on something that does what they do cheaper, faster, or better, it's also really exciting because at some point the laws of capitalism kick in, right? We've talked about this. When you are over-earning so massively,
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The rational thing to do for other actors in the arena is to come and attack that margin and give it to people for slightly cheaper, slightly faster, slightly better so you can take share. Yes. So I think what you're seeing and what you'll see even more now is this incentive for Silicon Valley, who has been really reticent to put money into chips. really reticent to put money into hardware.
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They're going to get pulled into investing in this space because there's no choice. You have a company that went from $100 billion in market cap to $2.5 trillion in four years. It's just way too much value that is there to then be leaked back. The interesting thing to remember is During the PC revolution, which is really mostly the 90s, right?
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It ended in the late 90s, I would say like 98, 99, right before the dot-com bubble took over. Intel's peak market cap was, I think it got to about $200 billion. And then their average growth rate from 1998 to today was negative 1.4% a year, right? So it went from about $200 billion to about $130 odd billion. And why? It's not that Intel was a worse company. But it's that everything else caught up.
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And the economic value went to things that sat above them in the stack. Then it went to Cisco for a while, right? Then after Cisco, it went to the browser companies for a little bit. Then it went to the app companies. Then it went to the device companies. Then it went to the mobile companies. So you see this natural tendency for value to push up the stack over time.
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And in AI, we've done step one, which is now you've given all this value to NVIDIA, and now we're going to see it being reallocated.
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So, right now, what you do is you speculatively bet on anything that kind of like, quote unquote, rhymes with NVIDIA. Yeah. AMD is ripping, the companies that make HPM is ripping. So all of that stuff, the folks that make optical cables, this Japanese company that I found that makes like the high bandwidth optical cables ripping.
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So anything related to that ecosystem right now is at all time highs. But at the same time, What you find now is every other day when you wake up and read the trades in Techland, you find that there's a company that's gotten seeded with $5 to $50 million to create a new chip.
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You're also starting to see folks that are working a little bit above the stack and build better compilers, things that will allow you to actually build once, run in many different compute environments. So all of this stuff is starting to happen. At some point, the spread trade will be that NVIDIA loses share, even though revenues keep compounding to these upstarts. Yeah.
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I think NVIDIA, this is to build on Sax's point, is going to get pulled into competing directly with the hyperscalers. So if you were just selling chips, you probably wouldn't. But Saks is right. These are these big, bulky, actual machines.
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Then all of a sudden, you're like, well, why don't I just create my own physical plant and just stack these things and create racks and racks of these machines? And go head-to-head with AWS instead of selling to them. It's not a far stretch, especially because NVIDIA actually has... the software interface that everybody uses, which is CUDA.
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So I think it's likely that NVIDIA goes on a full frontal assault against GCP and Amazon and Microsoft. That's going to really complicate the relationship that those folks have with each other. But I think it's inevitable because how do you defend? It's kind of the Apple problem. How do you defend an enormously large market cap? You're forced to go into businesses that are equally lucrative.
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Now, if I look inside of compute and look at the adjacent categories, they're not going to all of a sudden start a competitor to TikTok or a social network. But if you look at the multi-hundred billion revenue businesses that are adjacent to the markets that Nvidia enables, the most obvious one is the hyperscalers, which are multi-hundred billion dollar revenue businesses.
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So they're going to be forced to compete. Otherwise, their market cap will shrink And I don't think they want that. And then it's going to create a very complicated set of incentives for Microsoft and Google and Meta and Apple and all the rest. And that's also then going to be an accelerant.
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They're going to pump so much money to help all of these upstarts, to your point, Jason, chip away and nip at the Achilles heels of NVIDIA until they fall.
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Tesla's making chips. Yeah.
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He looks amazing.
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No, no, no. His balls are plastic.
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His literally had brass put into his balls. No, all of our balls have plastic, apparently.
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I'm going to go out on a limb and speculate that a lot of the big numbers that we use to gauge how we should feel about things in today's day and age are pretty brittle. And fragile and may actually just be totally wrong. So what's an example? So for example, if you look at something like non-farm payrolls, right?
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So the first Friday of every month, you get this report that comes out from the Department of Labor and it shows where unemployment is. But how do they calculate that? Do you think that they have a real-time sense of exactly every person in that month that entered the workforce or exited the workforce? No. They do a survey and then they extrapolate.
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And if you do that survey incorrectly, and Jason, you've commented on this before, for example, if you don't capture adequately the number of people that are on the sidelines and never joined the workforce or the number of people that are part of the gig economy, so they are kind of working, you get an inaccurate sense of where the real economy is.
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I think that GDP is somewhat similar because if you just break down what GDP is, so Nick, there's a very simple pie chart I sent to you. What is GDP? It's the sum of four things. Most of it is what people spend. Okay. Then the next big chunk is what companies and governments spend, and then the last is what we export to other countries.
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So let's just pause for one second and think about what do you think happens when rates are zero versus when rates are at 6%? People spend a lot more. Well, people tend to save when interest rates are high. Just the natural thing, like why would I buy a pair of these Nike shoes? I'll just put it in the bank, I get 6%.
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But when the bank pays you zero, you're like, ah, let me buy these Air Force Ones and move on, right? It turns out it's the same for companies. Companies find it easier to invest when rates are at zero because it's cheaper. It's much more expensive because they're borrowing money at 6% versus at 0%. Or more. Corporate gets charged a higher fee, right? Yeah.
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Then when you have high interest rates, you have a currency that appreciates. It makes exports less attractive to other people, which means then you become an ad importer. Okay, so what is the last thing that's left? The last thing that's left is government spending. And you have to ask the question, what should governments do when rates are high?
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There was a chart I published in my annual letter, if you just go to that for a second.
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And then I just wanted just to highlight that when interest rates are very high, all of a sudden governments are faced with this very difficult problem, which is, oh man, I have to spend a ton of money on interest. Just like if you had a bunch of credit cards and all of a sudden the interest rates went up. So the choice is twofold. Do governments spend less?
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But unfortunately, it turns out that our governments in America, they just keep spending more and more. So even if net interest income is small, even if net interest income is high, they're just like, forget it, the taps are on. So what does this all mean? I think what it really means is that we do a very poor job of measuring all these dynamics together.
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And so I actually trust the survey data of these individuals more than I trust the GDP report. in the sense that I think it more accurately captures this dynamic. Rates are at 6%. People are saving more. They're not getting paid more. Things are costing more. The government is giving you free money, so you kind of feel like everything is moving.
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So the GDP measurement, the way that it's classically done, shows that, wow, we grew at 3% or 4%. But the average individual American isn't feeling that. They're actually feeling that they have less money.
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So I would actually go with them and actually say, if we don't revisit this thing from first principles, we're going to get this dynamic where we think one thing is happening, but the actual exact opposite is happening. In this case, I do think we're in a quasi-synthetic recession.
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Because when you spend... Go back to that McNugget chart. I just want to see what is it end of 2019. So this is basically you'd want to look at the four year stock price, right? So like these guys have jacked up prices. Massively. If you look at what's happened to the stock, the stock is way up.
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It's kind of been they've been very motivated and rewarded as a company for just rewarding the shareholder and kind of screwing over the customers.
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You know, because she doesn't exist. Oh, back to the general open AI.
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You cornered the market on them.
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I went to Sagona's. You sent your assistant? No, Nat and I go to Sagona's every week. A, because we like buying our own fruit. Yeah. But also B, because our kids like to do it and they like to see what things cost and they like to pick stuff. But, you know, this sweetest batch was seven bucks. For how many strawberries is that, by the way? 12 strawberries in there?
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Well, so here's what I'll tell you, quite honestly. I'm like, I think that you need to put these guys... on notice. Oh, on blast. The perfume, so the nose, just like, it's incredible. The aroma, yeah. The smell is, the aroma, it's just absolutely incredible. Yeah. But to be totally honest with you, the mouthfeel and the sweetness is not what this label would imply. Yeah.
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What were you expecting in terms of mouthfeel? I was expecting something juicier, more succulent,
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Did you do tasting notes? No, I've been texting Friedberg about this for months. I am a connoisseur of fruit, okay? It's very important to me. I like good fruit. So, you know, my wife and I go and find good fruit for our family. And it's really expensive. And even this over promises and under delivers. So Freeburg, if you can land a GMO strawberry, I'm going to put it in my belly.
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Give me a GMO strawberry for your book. Twice as big, three times as sweet. Get in my belly.
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I mean, she doesn't exist. Of course it's a digitally altered version of ScarJo. And they got caught. Okay. Cookie jar.
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By the way, if you want to replace GDP, there was a very good article in the Wall Street Journal a few weeks ago about how there's been just a total breakdown in what these high-level numbers say, kind of what we've been saying and how Americans feel. They introduced a different score. Well, they gave it publicity. It's not their score, but it's something that they call the core score.
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What that does, I'll just read it to you just so you can understand it. It's a county level index of wellbeing using measures of economic security, economic opportunity, health, and political voice. And so the lowest possible score is zero. The highest possible score is 10. As it turns out, when they use this across every county in America, the distribution is basically as follows.
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The most quote unquote prosperous county is Falls Church, Virginia, which is a 7.86 out of 10. And the lowest county is Jim Hogg County of Texas. which has a score of 2.25. So to the extent that you want to start to look at granular measures, this is one. I'm not going to advocate for it, but it's an example. But what do you notice in here?
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What I notice is that there's a lot of patches of like meh to not good in most parts of America. And so other than a very few small pockets where people feel great, most of the country is sort of dissatisfied. And I think that that's a really important thing to internalize.
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He wasn't responsible. Once the seal has been broken, I think it's fair to say both sides of the aisle now believe that they can give away an enormous amount of money. Absolutely. There's nobody that feels like they have a responsibility to stop. But I think what Sachs is right in the sense that, so if you take that as a constant, right, that there will always be handouts now of all kinds.
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There'll be different flavors depending on whether it's a Republican or whether a Democrat.
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It's all, so then what I'm saying is- That's my point. This abstraction though doesn't solve what's happening now because this free money is in the system. It's constantly in the system. It comes in different waves. So people should feel better. The fact that they don't in the face of this constant money train, I think is actually quite alarming.
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This is, I think what the point is, which is we are economically in a very complicated moment in the sense that there is no pandemic to blame. There's no economy that's totally shut down. In fact, there's an economy that seems to be moving, but leaving an enormous number of people behind.
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So however it has been structured, just sitting here today in 2024, it's broken for more people than it's working for. Yeah.
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Let's talk about my balls, boys.
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If you scroll up to the top- Look at the, wait, look at the Chipotle chicken burrito. Oh my God.
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Freeburg, why would the chicken nuggets from Wendy's though be so... Is it because they are eating?
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And so then we're eating the chicken, so we're eating the plastic.
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These are the things like, look at Annie's. First of all, I really dislike Annie's labeling and packaging. I think it's very ugly, so I've never bought it for that reason. But I know that there's a lot of private equity moms that buy Annie's because it's supposed to be better for them.
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And so the problem is you see organic. When you go, like, again, we go to Drager's. That's typically where we go. Sometimes we go to Whole Foods, but we go to Drager's and Sagona's. That's the places we go to in our neighborhood.
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And when you go and you look at these things like prepared meals, as an example, the thing that has always attracted me to Annie's is because it is positioned as it is cleaner and better for you. And you see everybody buying it. And what you actually see sitting on the shelf that's left over is actually the Chef Boyardee and the Campbell's.
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And I always thought to myself, I won't buy Andy's because I actually don't like the label, to be honest. That was really why I just deeply disliked the packaging. But it turns out it's the absolute worst for you.
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I think, look, here's the thing. This company is going to go down in the history books. In one part, because the technical inventions that they've created are just next level, and frankly, created an entire industry. And I think they deserve a ton of credit for that. But they're also going to be written in the history books for two other things that are probably less aspirational.
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I think the first is that there's just all kinds of dust-ups and unnecessary drama that just seem to kick around every few weeks or months. And then the second is the sheer quantum of value capture that the employees have seen through secondaries before a fully functional business has been really created. And so I think it explains why folks circle the wagons consistently.
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First of all, I really appreciate that you did this. I think it's so important. We talked about microplastics a little bit ago. J-Cal moved his whole family away, I guess, a few years ago from plastics. I've started to do it four or five months ago.
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It's in the supply chain is your point.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
This is what I was going to say. I think our food supply, I think we should just say it out loud. is totally corrupted. And I think there's all of these other factors we look at, the rise in the use of SSRIs, the lack of sexual function in young men, the lack of sex, the low birth rate.
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I think these are all related and part of it is the food supply and part of the food supply problem is the fact that it is corrupted by these materials that should never be in our body.
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That's a guess, but I honestly think it's the truth.
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Every part of our industrial supply chain- I hear you, but the concentration, I'm going to guess that the concentration, when you actually put it in your body, and then your intestines and your organs are bathed in this stuff, I'm going to guess that the food supply has a huge part to do with this.
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Let me say it in a way that maybe you will agree with then. We need to fix something. My starting point would be the food supply.
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I think it's a very rational organization. They're technically ahead of everybody else. A lot of people want to put in money at crazy prices. A bunch of that value is transferred immediately to the employees who circle the wagons and do what's necessary to keep the taps flowing. And I think that that explains the whole thing.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
That was really, really well done. You nailed it. We were workshopping that before the show. I was like, what is bofas? Bova deez nuts. That's awesome.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Oh my God. Oh, where's the air horn, Nick? Play the air horn. No, no, okay, let's get serious here for a second. I have a real question. Part of the thing that I think is broken is that I think somewhere along the way we got screwed up in how food is labeled, right? And then it was gamed effectively, right?
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So for years, even when I was growing up, I thought you should not buy food that was high in fat. as an example. And little did I know I was ingesting all these sugars as a substitute to fat. It was a total mistake. Does the labeling need to become simpler and focus on these things that are just fundamentally carcinogenic for us? One, two, three.
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are there like lawsuits that need to happen a la cigarettes where you kind of connect the dots between these phthalates and a bunch of these diseases? Because it just seems like we are, people have thrown their hands in the air for years, right? Some people say autism and diet are correlated, right?
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Other people, so there, you know, Crohn's, the rise of Crohn's, there's so many of these conditions that there is a cohort of people that attribute most of the reason the pathology of the disease exists to food. So what do we do? Or pesticides, right? Yeah, that was in there too.
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No, these are phthalate-free because these are from the 1400s. They didn't have that back then.
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These are collectors items, bro. These are, these are from an era where that's something.
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And I think that that explains many Silicon Valley companies, quite honestly.
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It's baby cash. Yeah.
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I'm trying to hone you into this one area that I actually, I get the tires and the this and the that. I'm trying to get to something that I fundamentally care about. I have young children. I feed them food every day. I don't trust my food supply. I've never really trusted it.
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And this kind of stuff adds to this body of evidence where I'm worried that if my kids go through some kind of an issue, at the core of it will actually be something dietary. And it's typically overlooked by modern medicine because you'll treat it symptomologically. You'll try to give it some kind of pill. It's not how you treat a lot of these things. It could turn out.
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where restructuring someone's diet can actually have an enormous impact. So I'm just trying to figure out what is something that we can all start to do to get a handle on this because you're putting food in your body every day.
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I think that's laudatory but too complicated. I want something simpler, which is like, can we get a law passed so that chickens cannot eat certain kinds of food that are known to be high in phthalates?
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Whoa, whoa. No ditty. No, but the real issue is not that. It's like when the girls in your family have puberty younger and younger, and you're like, why is that happening? Or inconsistent periods. Or when the boys go through these weird moments where they're not really growing.
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I'm just telling you.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
I think the thing that everybody could get focused on is how can you correct at least the marketing versus the reality in our food supply. You know, a different example, I remember Nat telling me something which was along the lines of like hormone free is something that's marketed, but like chickens have been hormone free since like the 50s.
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But it's like there's some latent hormones left inside of them. And then some of the feed is really poorly constructed. And you should be focused on like air chilled versus water chilled or whatever. There's just so much bullshit out there. And so I think it's hard if you're like trying to take care of your family.
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Make sense of it all. It's just like, it seems impossible.
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I find this super frustrating because it's something that I really care about my, like what I eat.
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And it came from a place where a lot of disease in my family and then I was overweight when I was young. And so I just want to kind of like toe off. No, I mean you eat.
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No, I know Jason, but my takeaway is there's going to be a lot of phthalates in my balls. Yes, absolutely. Despite all the stuff that I do, I'm no better off than somebody eating at Wendy's in the end of the day. And I feel like, well, what is all that time and expense and difficulty? It's not worth it.
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I think you're right. And I think that's why you see all of these kinds of diseases, these chronic and acute conditions just ticking up. Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick.
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I haven't seen it.
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I'm going to find one.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Yeah. There's a compilation of YouTube, on YouTube, of all these Austin Powers moments of Austin Powers getting kicked in the balls. Yeah, bad news.
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So you're in the you're in the much ado about nothing on this card.
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So do you think if she if she sues open AI, do you think it should just get thrown out? It's not a real case.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
No, no, no. I'm not saying that. I'm asking you more that, yeah, even if they find it, your point is it shouldn't matter. My point is, do you think that it should be thrown out?
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I'm in the middle of this crazy thing. With Facebook, and they've been doing a very good job, the team at Meta, Ashley, thank you. But hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of automated accounts pretending to be me selling all kinds of random stuff. It's predominantly on WhatsApp and Facebook and Meta. And I don't know what to do because we work together with them. We shut it down.
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I've actually had to reactivate my Facebook and Instagram accounts, which were dormant. so that we could actually have them be verified, so that then it's easier to shut them down. But it is an impossible task when somebody's impersonating you to fight it. At least in my experience, it's been a month and it's just like every hundred we take down, another thousand.
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Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls
Well, didn't Meta use Morgan Freeman when Zuck created an AI or something as a project? Do you guys remember that? Wasn't Morgan Freeman the voice?
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I've said this before.
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Using a computer to probabilistically copy something is still copying something. Yes. Come on, guys, let's not make this too complicated.
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Well, you can see why they wrote that in there. That makes sense if you think, hold on a second, if an employee can leave with, you know, a random copy of like some old weights as a starting point to rebuild the model, that could be very valuable or... Well, that's IT. Yeah, but there's all kinds of quasi-confidential information or knowledge or know-how that you leave a place like that with.
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So I could see why there was a justification to be very... heavy-handed about it. But again, the question isn't whether you're allowed to be heavy-handed. You are. The question is, why backtrack and then obfuscate and lie after you get caught? Well, right. What do they say?
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Just own it and say, you know what, guys, this is a really valuable company. There's a ton of very valuable trade secret know-how IP confidential information. And we're going to be extremely- Litigious. On the offense and protect it because- Aggressive. And it's correlated to the importance of the company and the ecosystem.
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You could have said that and people could have been upset, but they would have understood.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I've learned that Friedberg's backgrounds is some like weird secret communication language. There's a small but fervent group of people that are really into these backgrounds. They're always trying to figure something out.
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What? Well, there you go. Oh, new bestie in ****. Aaron, are you staying in the town?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Okay, this is perfect. We're all going to be there, bro.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
It was the most incredible change in how politics will be done going forward. I think that people are probably underestimating what happened here. This was a multi hundred billion dollar grift that was stopped on a dime over 12 hours of tweets. You would have never thought that that was possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The point is to put a dagger in something that big, that had so much broad support just a few hours earlier, I think it's so consequential in how the United States can run going forward.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think right now you're seeing the first order reaction, which is about the bill itself. And I think that misses the point.
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The bigger issue is going forward, you will have the ability to, and part of it is because we have a set of tools now that allows us to do this, to read 1500 pages in a matter of minutes, to summarize it into the key essential elements, to really understand what's being asked and what's being offered.
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And then to put it in a digestible format that normal people can consume, then all you'll have to do is just connect the dots and tell your congressman or congresswoman that you'd like or dislike this thing. And what you're going to see is a much more active form of government. And I think that's the really big deal. The fact that it really becomes the voice of the people.
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Now, the alternative can also happen. Imagine there is a piece of legislation that is very controversial, but it turns out that people actually want it. then the opposite will also happen and can also happen now. So I think that it's a very nuanced and interesting way that governance can happen.
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The other thing that I'll say though, which is funny, is we should have a segment called Today in Hypocrisy. And if I was running the segment, what I would say is today in hypocrisy, You have a group of people, i.e. the Democrats, who are very upset and who now point to Elon as sort of like some shadow cabinet minister or some shadow president-elect or some shadow first buddy, right?
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Except then I thought to myself, well, hold on a second. Like there was like something untoward happening in the shadows. And I thought, well, actually, this is the exact opposite. The guy is tweeting in real time his stream of consciousness. You absolutely know everything that he wants because he just lays it all bare. And at the same time, I thought it was really interesting.
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The same people who were saying that were the ones that finally admitted that they were hiding Biden for the last two years. And I thought, did we just miss this? Like the same people that are like, hold on, Elon, I don't like the fact you're telling us what you actually want on Twitter transparently while we hired our president of the United States in a box.
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This week in hypocrisy, Jason, take it away.
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The end. Question. Hold on a second. So just to contrast and compare, Trump is not even in office. You know, Elon is not a member of the cabinet per se. These are effectively today still private citizens. When there's all of this noise about what happened over the last two days to stop an absolutely ridiculous pork barrel bill.
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But when are we going to double click into what decisions have been made in the last two years that were actually Biden's versus surrogates that just decided? And who gave them the authority to make those decisions?
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It's deeply unethical. It's very dangerous. Yes. Again, it just goes back to the people elected Joe Biden. He won fair and square. He ran on a specific mandate that the people endorsed. I just think it's devious, though, that certain figures in that White House... took a level of power and decision-making authority that they were never entitled to.
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If they wanted that, they should have run and they should have been elected. That's what we all sign up for. And so I think that that idea that we let that happen or that that happened to the American voting public is, I think, very unfair. That's why I think you have to realize that, and you've said this before, we need these checks and balances going forward.
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And I think the way that you have these checks and balances, again, is veer towards transparency. The more transparency there is. And again, this is where I'll say, You may or may not like Donald Trump, but the one thing you will never have to be worried about is whether you will not be able to hear from him in first person.
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If you're ever in doubt, you will be able to know very quickly where he stands on whatever topic is important to you. And I think that that idea is very important because then if it's filtered through somebody else, because of some health issue that's then covered up. We're making decisions that impact the entire world. We're making decisions that impacts the economy.
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We're making decisions that touch hundreds of millions of American lives. Who are making those decisions?
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The other thing, Jason, that we haven't done is I think that killing the bill was step one. The thing that America has not yet seen, and I think Aaron brought this up with the Patrick Collison tweet, which is just excellent. Nick, if you just want to put it up there, it really is true. America still believes that the more you spend, the more you get. We do. At the core.
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That's why there are 1,500 pages of spending in here. Because people want things because they want things to be better. What we need to train people to understand is actually that it's the lies that are told that make you think that with more money comes a better outcome. And we see it every day in Silicon Valley. We all start with next to nothing as a startup.
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And we outmaneuver and we out-execute companies all day long with way more resources. So it has nothing to do with the resources.
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You could have runaway debt.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
No. But I thought that the most credible thing was that they were looking for radioactive material. That somehow some got lost.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Why do you hate Kenkoa?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I don't hate Kenkoa. I don't hate Kenkoa.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Ken Kankoa.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
He's a really good journalist.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
You like Ken Kankoa? I subscribe to Ken Kankoa.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Oh, I like Autism Capital too. I think he's really good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Oh, Geiger Capital.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And why only at night?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I read number 13 and number 44. I would like to quote from Hamilton the Musical. Oh.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Yeah. No, do it. Do it. Because I want to talk about opening night.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I think that this is so interesting. So I was looking at all of these things. If you put them all together, it paints a really interesting story. So you have Elon filing an injunction, which basically says you should not allow this conversion to happen until we sort out all of these details, because if you allow it to convert and then I win, it'll be very messy to go backwards.
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I think that that's a pretty credible legal argument. Then you have Zuck basically say, hey, Elon's right, this company should not convert. But the more interesting thing that really got me thinking about this was a chart that Menlo Ventures put out. Nick, can you just show this? What this shows is just what's happened in the last year. And what do you notice?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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What you notice is the market share of OpenAI has changed pretty meaningfully from half to about a third. And what you see is Anthropic doubled, Meta roughly staying the same, Google picking up steam.
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And it started to make me think, this is very similar to a chart that I would have looked at in 2006 and 2007 when we were building Facebook, because we had this huge competitor in MySpace that was the de facto winner. And we were this upstart.
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And it made me think, is there a replay of this same thing all over again, where you have this incumbent that pioneers an idea and they start with 100% share. And then all of these upstarts come around from nowhere. And then I thought, well, what is better today if you are a company that's just starting versus if you were the incumbent?
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And I think that there's a handful that are worth talking about. So the first is, when you look at what XAI has done with respect to NVIDIA GPUs, the fact that they were able to get 100,000 to work in one contiguous system and are now rapidly scaling up to basically a million over the next year, I think what it does, Jason, it puts you to the front of the line for all hardware.
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So now all of a sudden, if you were third or fourth in line, XAI is now first, and it pushes everybody else down. And in doing that, you either have to buy it yourself or work with your partner. And I think for the folks like Meta, that translates and explains why they're spending so much more. It's sort of like this arms race.
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If you can't spend with my competitors, I'm just going to prefer my competitor to you. So I think that that creates a capital war. In a capital war, I think the big companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and brands like Elon will always be able to attract effectively infinite capital. And their cost of capital goes to zero, which means they'll be able to win this hardware war.
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Okay, so put a pin in that. Then the second thing is what happens on the actual data and experience side on the training side. If you listen to Ilya Sutskever, if you listen to Andrej Karpathy, what they effectively are saying is there's this terminal asymptote that we're seeing right now in model quality. So what happens?
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A lot of these folks are now experimenting on the things around the model, right? The user experience, how you use it. Can I keep things in memory? Can I cut and paste these things from here and there? Because what it says is like the data is kind of static and brittle. But it's actually not, as what we said before, because you have this corpus of data on X that's pretty unique.
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I suppose if Elon fed in all this kinetic data that he controls through Tesla, that's very unique. Does that all of a sudden create this additive pool of information? Possibly. And then the third thing is, when you look at that chart, what that chart says is, hold on a second, why are corporates moving around? And what I can tell you just through the 80-90 lens is,
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We are completely promiscuous in how we use models. And the reason is because these models offer different cost quality trade offs at different points in time for different tasks.
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And so what we are seeing is a world where instead of having two or three models you rely on, you're going to rely on 30 or 40 or 50 and you're going to trade them off and you're going to use effectively like an LLM router to distance, you know, to balance them, yeah, and to route or just or just to manage and route them.
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And then there's an intelligence about that that's constantly tasking and figuring out prompt optimization across these models. So it's this thing where we were very reliant on open AI. Now we're reliant across three or four. Ideally, we'll be reliant on 30 or 40. And so I just see this world where it's all getting commoditized quite quickly.
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And so I'm just like sort of scratching my head, like, where is the market value here? Aaron, your thoughts?
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Okay. I have this image. It's like we're in a bar. Okay. And all of a sudden. You talking to me? A fight is about to break out. Four thought bubbles appear. Okay. J. Cal's like, J. Cal's like, let's go get him. Sax is like, this guy, this guy's a dipshit. Let's roll. I'm like, look at that chick. She's so good looking. And then Freeberg's like, what will happen to my invite to duck?
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I think what he's saying is there'll be... Open source models, there'll be closed source models, but the price that Aaron or me or anybody else pays these model makers will effectively go to zero. Got it.
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You know how much the world spends on software and software-related things every year? It's about $5 trillion. So there's like, call it like a trillion and a half of software licenses, a trillion and a half of consulting, and a trillion and a half of IT folks inside of companies, plus or minus a little bit more, you get about 5 trillion, and that's compounding 13% a year.
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I'm pretty sure that the market here shrinks by an order of magnitude. And instead of fighting over 5 trillion, I think we'll be fighting over 500 billion. What do you think? Aaron, you buy that?
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I mean, I don't know if you want to make the case more, but... The only reason is that I think that as we de-lever the software development process from humans, I think the unit cost of creating code effectively becomes so cheap that it's going to be very hard to differentially price these products the way that they are.
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So an example would be that, let's say you use, I don't know, pick your favorite piece of software. I don't want to pick on any of this, so I'm not saying- I'm just saying Office Suite.
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Sure. Let's pick on Excel because maybe that's like- Sure. Excel, Google Sheets. Yeah. It's not that Excel isn't valuable. It's incredibly valuable. It's what is the marginal cost of creating the Excel equivalent that is good enough that people switch? The marginal cost today is very expensive. And you can see that because it's what it costs Google to make Sheets. But that's humans.
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So the real question is, if you have a legion of bots that works 24 seven, incrementally and increasingly more accurately every day, The question is, what is the marginal cost? And I think the marginal cost of that is going to be very cheap. And when you do that, it's very difficult to price it anywhere near the same.
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And the reason is that other companies will then replicate it and say, hold on, if Excel wants to charge $100, I'll charge 50 and I'll take a lower margin. That's just supply-demand economics.
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The cycle time of Zoho is poor.
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No, it's all levered to humans. I just think it's not a good product. It's decent enough.
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I do agree with you, Aaron, by the way, that when you bring that whole offline services category online and you automate them with AI, I agree with you that that TAM could be ginormous. All I'm saying is the traditional software TAM today, what people spend $5.1 trillion on, I think people will spend $500 billion on and barely if that.
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There may be other things that people spend money on that are wrapped in AI.
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The companies I talk to, they're consistently like, rip it up. Get us to a point where we can rip it up. And the reason is because what they've realized is they'll spend $50 to $100 million a year for five features. And they're like, just give me these five features as workflows. Give me a simple CRUD database and just get out of the way. And it's like, the trade-off for that
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makes a lot of sense because, look, let's face it, when you have to build one piece of software that has to sell to 50,000 companies, the reality is that that piece of software is trying to do everything and then some, and it's trying to solve two or three use cases, plus around five or six common use cases that are generalized.
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For 50,000 customers, so you end up with 50,000 features.
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You are completely right about the usage. All I'm debating is when you have to price something, you have to look at the total cost of what it took to make it. and then you want to try to build in a reasonable amount of margin and some reasonable expansion and you discount it back and this is what you think it's worth.
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Even though you may not think you're doing that when you implicitly price something that way, that is what's happening underneath the hood to the unemotional buyer of that good. And all I'm saying is,
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If what Aaron says before, which I agree with is true, which is the cost of using a model to get to an output effectively goes to zero, somewhat what I've been saying before, the marginal cost of compute goes to zero. The marginal cost of energy goes to zero. The real question is, what does it take to make a good in the digital world?
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We're working with an aerospace partner. Won't say who it is. And we sat there and they walked us through what they deal with to make the things that they're making. It's convoluted. And this is not a software problem. It's that there is no piece of software that understands how they want to run their company. And so instead, they have to morph their org chart to the tools that are available.
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So I think what Freeberg is saying is some version of that as well. There were probably people there using the tools that were available. And as a result, at some point, some HR person said, we need to hire this other person and this other person. And instead, what it allows companies to do is just completely reimagine. How do you want your company to work?
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And what is the business process you actually need to implement? And then let's just get that built. And I don't know if you guys saw this, but Satya Nadella had this clip that's gone pretty viral in the last couple of days where he effectively said the same thing. And what he's effectively saying is,
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All these big software systems are business rules wrapping a database plus an incredible go-to-market team. And this is what Alex Karp points to as sharp knives, steak dinners, and basketball game tickets. I don't know if you guys saw that clip. I did see the clip.
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But it really points to the heart of how the software industrial complex, that's what I call it, this $5.1 trillion, this software industrial complex, How has it evolved? I think it's people that build good point products, but when the market, meaning the shareholders and the public investors, demand growth, you have this natural expansion. And what do they do?
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They inflate the feature set, they inflate the cost, and then in order to sell that, they inflate the set of incentives that they give to the buyer. The CIO inside of these large organizations, they control budgets. They're equivalent to state-level budgets in some cases. What do you think the CIO of a top five bank is spending? It's probably $15 to $20 billion a year.
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They are getting wined and dined to a way that you could not even imagine. I don't even think the CEO probably understands. And that filters down through the org, and so they make these- Hey, don't totally ruin our whole game here. Well, I'm just pointing it out.
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Right, but I think you and Aaron mentioned this though, the extreme difficulty is not that front end part. That's easy. It's like, I think it's less than three or 4% of the work. the 96% of the work is how you actually integrate it in the backend and how do you provision it, how do you have controls and how do you do security?
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Because if those things fail and those are implemented in a bot in a highly regulated market, as an example, you may not actually be allowed to operate.
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No, I think the practical issue where the rubber meets the road there is when there is a penetration And a regulator who's a human, because it will not have been a bot, comes and knocks on your door. And you're like, well, here's this immutable log of the things that I did. And they're like, I don't want an immutable log. Who the hell tested this?
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Show me the unit test that you created and signed off on. There is a critical human in the loop problem on that other 95%, which is where I agree with Aaron.
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No, no, no. In stage one, that'll be the case. I think it's in stage five and six. I think you'll need governments to take an entirely different risk posture for highly regulated markets. I don't see that happening in any time in the near future.
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Yeah. So I agree a hundred percent with that. My only comment is the software industrial complex today has to shrink because the stranglehold that it has on how companies run is incredibly high for an experience that's incredibly poor. Nobody raises their hand and says, gosh, this piece of enterprise software that I use in my day-to-day life is as good as Instagram or TikTok. Nobody says that.
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They're here to play. 70% of the usage of open AI is consumer.
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What does that mean for them as Gemini and Google get momentum?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Meaning, do you provide enough value and of enough quality where folks don't need to then, folks stay on Google? On google.com? I'm asking you whether it impacts open AI, the quality of Gemini as it increases, or do you think that these usage cohorts are roughly set?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Bye-bye.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
That's a really good question. I think that today there are a lot of really valuable use cases that can sit on top of crypto rails. I think the most obvious one is how you can have real-time payments using stablecoins. I think the United States government is already using some of these stablecoins for a bunch of purposes.
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The number of companies that are beginning to adopt and use stablecoins is actually growing very quickly as well. Take a second to define stablecoins for the audience just to catch people up. Let me define what a stablecoin is, which is that you put a dollar into a wallet somewhere. And in return, you get a digital token of that dollar. There are two big purveyors of stablecoins.
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There's Tether and then there's USDC, which is this company called Circle. I think the easiest way to disambiguate them is Tether is abroad. I think it's run out of somewhere in the Caribbean. And USDC is American. It's run by this company called Circle. The other difference is that there is some ambiguity around how these assets are secured.
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Freeberg's like, how do I get out of this unscathed duck?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
So what a stable coin is supposed to do is when you give them a dollar, they're supposed to go and buy some short-term treasury security so that that dollar is always guaranteed, right? Because if you had a billion dollars of stable coins, but only $900 million of assets to back them up, there's an insolvency risk there. There's a run on the bank risk, right?
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So theoretically, a billion dollars of stable coins should have a billion dollars of cash in some short-term fungible security. What's incredible is at the scale in which these stable coins operate, that has turned out to be an enormous business. Why? When you give them a billion dollars and get a billion dollars of stable coins in return, they just go and put it into the bank.
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And when interest rates are 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, they're making billions and billions of dollars. They get the float. They get the float. So these businesses have turned out to be incredible, but that's beyond the point. The point is that a lot of companies that you would never think, so for example, SpaceX uses these stable coins. How?
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How do you think they collect payments from all the Starlink customers when they aggregate them in all of these long tail countries? They don't want to necessarily take the FX risk, the foreign exchange risk. They don't want to deal with sending wires. So what they do is they'll swap into stablecoin, send it back to the United States, and then swap back to US dollars.
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So it's a very useful utility. So number one is I think we need to make those rails the standard rails in the United States. And what that does is it allows us to chip away at all of this decrepit infrastructure that the banks use to sort of slow down and tax a process that should never have been taxed.
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But I guess the question that, yeah. But that's the first thing. But then the second thing it allows you to do is you start, you can see a world where now you can have real competition against the traditional rails, specifically Visa, MasterCard, American Express. Because when you look at great companies like Stripe, I use Stripe, I pay them 3%.
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If I use stable coins from Stripe, I don't pay zero, but I don't pay 3%. It's kind of somewhere in the middle. If I was technically adept at implementing stable coins through the entire stack of my product, So I use it for this learn with me thing where we publish research. I would save a lot of money.
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So the idea that you can take that 300 basis points you pay to these companies and crush it to zero would be a boon to global GDP because that's 3% on many tens of trillions of dollars.
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Yeah, but in fairness to them, I think, again, both of these two companies look, as of today, again, you have a jurisdictional issue, difference. But as of today, it looks like they're both pegged one for one. But anyways, the point is, if Sachs can really push the adoption of stablecoins, number one, And then number two is to incentivize
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much, much cheaper transactional rails, then I think he can go to Bitcoin and these other more long-tail crypto projects off of a back of momentum. Because these first two things, I think everybody will embrace and he won't get caught in a political quagmire.
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These other things, you have these opponents always coming into the system and they have, even Bitcoin, like when I said this thing about encryption and quantum, and even though I thought, I was very clear. The crypto community on the internet went absolutely crazy all last week. Yes, they piled on. But the thing is, some of the maxis piled on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Then when they actually took time to understand the technicalities of what I was saying, other people realized I was right, that they were tweeting it. My point is, That world is so animated and energized that I think it's hard to use them as the first place where you find progress. So I would tell Sachs, go to stablecoins, then disrupt the Visa rails, and then go to the other stuff.
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Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
This was a assassination attempt. You owe the people answers. You owe President Trump answers.
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And instead, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
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We'll let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, S. I squeeze. We need to get merch.
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And I think what they do is they make, frankly, these kinds of achievements much more high level in the sense that you're bringing together people from Hollywood and people from Silicon Valley and the awareness is up and it's just incredibly well produced. And yeah, it's really a cool thing to be a part of. But I mean, seeing some of these people are very intimidating. I sat beside Vin Diesel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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There are two separate things, and I think it's important to deal with them individually. Groups of people in society in a democracy should have a right to protest. That's absolutely fundamental, and I think they can raise a lot of issues that could otherwise get swept under the carpet.
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When that stuff impedes the public functioning of society for other people, then I think there's a responsibility for law enforcement and other people to act and make sure that that is better managed. So shutting down an entire bridge is not only disruptive, it can be really dangerous. Of course. And it can hurt your cause because then people dislike the cause because it hurt them. Right.
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Typically what happens is you're supposed to file for a permit to protest And when you get that, there are areas that are cordoned off and then people are allowed to express their views. That's a really healthy form of democracy.
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Going rogue like this will only blow up in people's faces because the folks that are somewhat sympathetic will eventually get burned by this experience and turn against them. So that's one set of issues. I think that's just people going rogue. And I think that you can't be tolerant of that kind of chaos. There should be organized protests, but not disorganized chaos.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Law enforcement needs to get a control of that. Inside of a company, I think this is different. It's this weird thing that I see, which is like what I would call like left on left violence. It's like left leaning people creating all of these distractions and demonstrations inside of left leaning organizations for not being left leaning enough.
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And so it's kind of like a little bit nutty because I think it actually shows how totally naive these employees are and what basic business understanding they have. The first and foremost being that they are at-will employees.
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These are not people that are contracted players in the NBA or are part of a union, okay, where you have guaranteed employment through some mechanism or some arbitration process to even be let go. The fact that you don't even understand that you are at will means that you are there because you want to be there. And Google allows you to be there because they choose for you to be there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And at any point, if either of you break a covenant, you can be gone. That kind of stuff I think is very distracting and it just belies a poor understanding of what you're there to do. Google is a for-profit business and they are in the business of generating maximum profit on behalf of their shareholders.
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They are also incentivized to do that in a way that achieves a mission and a set of values that the majority of their employees agree with. And the fact that a small cohort of people can try to hijack and sabotage that overall direction, I think is very misguided.
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Oh, really? That was super cool. He is a super nice guy. And on the other side of me was someone that actually Sachs knows, Toby Emmerich, who was the chairman of Warner Brothers. So just talking to these guys was super cool. Moving it to Los Angeles was a great move.
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I mean, he's like, I don't even know how Nat and I keep getting invited to this, but like to say we were outclassed is an understatement.
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Jacob, what do you think?
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The craziest thing is they give a youth Breakthrough Award. So the Breakthrough Prize is this beautiful globe. And then the junior winner gets like a smaller version, very appropriate. And it was a video of this kid in India who had won it a few years ago and then went off to MIT and then graduated. And then the video is of him coming back to Bangalore because his sister had won this year.
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That's what I always think about when I see those things, when you block streets and stuff or you block airports or you block these throughways. There's a lot of just normal everyday people trying to live their life who are probably very sympathetic to what you stand for.
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But when you disrupt their everyday lives and or threaten their physical security, they're not going to think that that's worth it.
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To Sax's point, I actually would have had more respect for these people if they actually protested the war. But they didn't do that. They had a very discreet, specific claim, which was that they wanted to dissolve a business deal that Google had to provide cloud services to the state of Israel called Project Nimbus.
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And I think that's such a discreet thing that it's hard to understand that those 28 people would have even enough knowledge of what that is. But it sounds like a cloud hosting deal. Well, what's hosted there? And it could be any number of things. And I suspect if it's a billion dollar a year deal, it's many things. It's probably like the Israeli DMV. Is that really what you want?
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And I think that it would have been much of a more powerful thing to do to protest the actual war if that's what they cared about.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Would you back a robot that had weapon systems on it? I think if you want to summarize what we said last week, it's like there are all kinds of businesses where you'll end up investing in it. And over time, as it morphs, some of us will be faced with some of those decisions and it'll frankly depend on what is the alternative in that moment.
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So I don't think anybody of us are going into go and build a nuclear bomb, but you should not be naive that if you're building nuclear reactors, you could end up being in a situation where that thing gets licensed into a thing that you either agree or disagree with. So this is my point is I think that those kinds of answers or those kinds of questions
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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are missing the nuances, and the nuances are very important. So it's impossible to answer this question in a thoughtful way, I think, would be my honest answer. Okay. Sax, any closing thoughts here?
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And he presented it to the sister. And all I could think of was, this is an incredible achievement by like a 16-year-old. And literally at the same time, my 16-year-old was like, dad, the chicken tenders from DoorDash have got arrived.
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Yeah. And I'm accepting it. I think they would have gotten just as much press if they actually protested the war. I think in a week from now, everybody will forget what Project Nimbus is. The odds that it gets canceled are less than zero and everybody will move on. And it will not add to the drumbeat, as Zach said, of people that may be eventually on the right side of this issue, theoretically.
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I say theoretically because that stone is still yet to be overturned on that topic. So I think that they missed the mark. And I think that the part of the press that people glommed on to was it was happening inside of a company in real time and there was video of it.
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I don't think it is. I think it's taking up a lot of headspace amongst breathless journalists. I don't think it matters to the public at large. I don't think anybody cares.
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What is it? Break the rewards?
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So it's like, it's really incredible and inspiring. But fortunately, don't worry, my 16-year-old was able to get the chicken tenders and everything was fine. Oh, okay, good.
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What do we do? It's hilarious. By the way, the other thing I'll say is the person that performed is really amazing, Charlie Puth. And the reason I say it is if you Google Charlie Puth, This guy, he's a young guy in his early 20s, I'm guessing. He is so talented. There's all these videos of Charlie Puth where he'll make a random noise, like he'll clink a Coke bottle with a fork.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Chamath, what do you see in this inkblot of a product? Neither of those two cohorts. I think that incredibly motivated, dedicated entrepreneurs don't even know that this is happening and don't care.
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The idea that in 2009, 10 or 11, right, that when all the rockets weren't working, you know, and Elon was back against the wall, that he was reading TechCrunch or getting upset because a product failed, some other random product that had nothing to do with his, I think is laughable. I think no great entrepreneur cares.
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I don't think Freeberg is going to change what's happening at a hollow based on, what is this thing called? Humane. Right. Friedberg, have you changed? Have you made decisions? Are you sadder today in Ohala when you walked into the office to manage your team? OK, so there you go. There's your answer. You're failing on this.
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Acorn-fed beef. Yes. For sure, high IQ. Pigs, very high IQ. I saw that cow playing chess before he was served for dinner.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Here's the theme, Jason. Here's the theme, Jason. The problem is that I think people right now, the real Rorschach test is if you are so easily distracted, you probably don't have enough to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I don't want to call it entitlement, but I think the reality is that if you get caught up in all of these silly little fake battles or decisions, I think what it really means is that you're not busy enough and or you're not working on something that matters enough to you. Because when either of those two things are true, people tend to have blinders on and they are super focused.
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And then he'll record it. And then he'll put it into these digital editing tools. And then he'll make like an entire five-minute song using that as the base, like as the basic building block. The guy is so talented. Anyways, it was a very cool event.
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And they just don't have an opinion. They don't care. Like, honestly, many of these topics today, I really don't care. And it's not because I'm better or worse or smarter or dumber. It's because I'm so overworked right now. I don't have time to have an opinion on this stuff.
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The breakthrough prize was amazing. It's like observing exotic animals in their natural habitat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay. First of all, shout out to Yuri and Julia. It is incredible. There were two moments where I cried. This woman goes up on stage to give an award to the people that had made this investment in cystic fibrosis. Yeah. And she says, my child was born with cystic fibrosis, and then my second child was born with cystic fibrosis, and then my second child died. She said that, I just burst into tears.
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Yeah, it's basically what you're telling me is it's an overpriced device that could give you first degree burns. And it will ruin your sweaters. And doesn't answer the questions that you ask.
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But then do I think the questions or do I have to say it out loud so it looks like I'm talking to myself?
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It's some really cool, interesting features. It's just like, it's not quite there yet. Who invested in it? Let's not make fun of it. Let's make fun of the investors.
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Sam Altman. Shout out to Sam.
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I'll take the other side when you're done.
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You're saying something totally different. That's, that's utility. Of course, you'll find a device will give you utility. I thought you were saying something else, which is everybody's going to have wearables. And I want to take the exact opposite side of that.
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I totally get that, you know, the use of an accelerometer or whatever in a watch or in a band that you wear on your wrist for a workout. And I think that that's valuable. Or heart rate. A glycemic monitor so that you could... All of that stuff makes super sense for you as an individual. But that's not an experience where you're engaging with it to... to replace some other social interaction.
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That's just you getting utility as you live your life. What I'm saying is the idea that you start to rely on a device as your interface into the world, I would take the exact other side of the bet, which is I think that humans are getting so sick and tired of being of only communicating in these very rigid ways.
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Like I'm telling you, like if you look at our children's generation, they don't know how to make eye contact. They don't know how to talk. And I think it's going to come back and bite them in the ass. And so I think the pendulum is going to swing in the other direction where it's like, okay, enough of this stuff.
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Let's actually look each other in the eye and talk to each other the way that humans were meant to be. And I think that in that, Devices like a glucose monitor or a band has value, but I don't think it's going to be this interface where you're sign languaging it while you're at Coachella. I think you're going to rip the devices off and actually be at Coachella without any devices.
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Well, this has got massive privacy things recording your entire life with a pendant, man. No, thank you. This is why I said what I said. I do think Saks is right that ultimately... you'll have some kind of brain interface, because I do think a chip implant of some kind is very valuable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But what I'm also saying is that I think that that will actually lessen the social acceptability of these visible devices that are constantly getting in between you and another person. And so the idea that we're kind of already in a quasi surveillance state, and now we're going to increase that by and factorial to the number of people, I think is very depressing. It is depressing.
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And you know what?
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They do it in my kids. It's actually, Jason, these special- Pouches? Pouches. Yeah, so those are the pouches comedians use, like Chappelle at his shows. Chappelle uses it, Kevin uses them. Yeah, exactly. And they're great.
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And then what what the school now also teaches the kids, at least our school, which I found really interesting, is the graduated form of that is they actually now allow you to put it in a envelope because they're training the kid like the pouch you can't get access to. You have to go back to the locks, unlock device.
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And then I saw that my son last week had it actually in a in a white envelope and he had to close the envelope and just keep it with him. as like a way of graduating from the prison form of keeping the phone away to like, you know, having it in your pocket. So the schools are trying to do a lot to try to teach these kids not to be so dependent on this.
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You get the octopus. I think that Sean missed you. Yeah. He did. By the way, Sean experimented with some Greek cheese that you grill. That was pretty delicious. Oh, hooli. Hooli cheese. Hooli.
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There was a Black Mirror episode on this exact idea.
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Yeah.
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It's actually not even neutral. It's a net negative and a drag on the entire night. Absolutely.
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Those are the best nights, yeah.
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I deleted TikTok about a month ago. It's been liberating. I was a slave to that app. I couldn't believe how much- how much TikTok I was consuming after it was gone because I couldn't find anything to replace it. And then I stumbled into the fact that YouTube has YouTube Shorts and there is a lot of that content, but it's terrible and the algorithm is really bad. Yeah, it sucks.
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And so fortunately, I just stopped using YouTube.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Profits, air quotes, profits, air quotes.
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But Freeberg, they know basic math. Congress knows basic math. How do they? How do they? What was the intent here? Yeah.
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Well, doesn't it mean, though, that if you run it at breakeven and without a lot of growth, by year five, you'll be back to where you were. So you really have to cover the taxes in years one through four.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
Right.
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I think Jason mentioned it earlier, and I think it's the key thing, which is what is R&D then? And maybe you just move things to cogs and just be done with it.
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Okay, look.
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I remember when I joined the ownership group of the Warriors, I had to file this enormous document. And one of the things that they really dig into is whether you've bet before. And they make it really, really clear that it is completely not allowed to bet.
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And the only way that you can bet is if you're betting on non-basketball and if you were in Vegas and you go to a casino and a troop sports book. That's the only time it's tolerated. The thing with all of these sites, FanDuel and DraftKings is they did deals with the leagues where part of the feature is that when there is really crazy asymmetric betting on something that's obscure,
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they report it back to the leagues so the leagues know how to look at it. Because typically what happens is if you're talking like a very well-contested basketball, Jason, you have a relatively balanced book, right? And what the goal is, is to figure out where are the sharps betting, meaning the really smart money guys, and everybody else is a square, and most of retail is a square, okay?
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They're going to lose their money. And so the goal is to always find out where the sharps are going. But there are some of these bets, and in this case, this is why they found out, when you have something being bet that's very obscure in size, These apps immediately go back to the league and say, this just happened.
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Before what would happen is like all of these bookies would be able to have relationships with some of these players. Sometimes they would also have relationships with some of the refs and it has spilled over. So the NBA has had to deal with an example where one of the refs were, I think he was betting on some games.
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Tim Donaghy and then he was point shaving. So this has been going on for a long time. It moved into the realm of it being automated with algorithms looking out, the fact that this kid didn't have anybody on his team that explained that DraftKings and FanDuel are going to send this data to the NBA is inexcusable because maybe the kid would not have done it.
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Yeah, it has to be lifetime.
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Well, the other thing I'll say, and I mentioned this a few weeks ago, everything is being gamified. You have an entire population that seemingly in America, consumer spending still goes up. Folks are relatively still flush with cash. There's lots of free cash flow.
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There are new and more aggressive forms of stimulus constantly coming down the pike, whether it's student loan forgiveness or something else, right? Governments are inventing new and new ways of buying votes. That's going to put more and more money in people's hands. That means a larger and larger percentage of it will bleed into these kinds of things. And it's not just sports gambling.
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There was an article in the Wall Street Journal about this woman who's a well-respected lawyer who became totally addicted playing like a bingo app, right? And lost her entire life. So these forms of gambling and addiction are just going to skyrocket, I think, because you have these apps that are really incredibly well-engineered. To get you super hooked.
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And then the adrenaline rush and the dopamine rush of actually winning money is a thing that for some people, they can't turn off once they feel it for the first time.
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They get too into it.
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This is what I'm going to tell you. The last thing I'll say on this is when I was in high school, so in the early 90s in Ontario in Canada, they introduced sports betting as a way of generating revenue for the government. What I will tell you is that my entire high school, all the boys, not the girls, We became instant gambling addicts. We were figuring out how to put bets on.
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Most of it was betting in hockey because that's the sport that we all knew the best growing up in Ottawa. But it was all day, every day. It consumed us. And I think when you look inside of these apps, you're seeing a lot of young men with a lot of free cash and a lot of time getting sucked into the gamification of this thing. I think it's going to be a big problem.
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And they're doing something very smart, which is they're paying huge endorsement deals to the players as well. Yes. I think DraftKings did something with LeBron. This is genius because when you get that ingratiated, you'll never get ripped out. Because if they become a huge part of the off-court revenue model for these players... We're locked in.
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When I got admitted to the ownership group in the NBA, I stopped. And I probably made three bets since then. All three were like on the Super Bowl at a casino, so it was legal when I was still an owner. And I've not done it since. And I've refused to download these apps because I love sports. And I think that if I added this to it,
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I just don't think it would be good for me, so I don't want to do it.
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Are you able to be vegetarian? Were you able to find good vegetarian or veggie options in Austin? Talking to me? Yeah.
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Do you never share information where people can actually like get to know you?
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Come on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Have you spent time, Sax, like studying like openings and like studying like specific lines. I don't even know if I'm using the right language here.
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I mean, I ran a casino in my high school. Was that the... Yeah, I mean, I ran a little blackjack game where the rich kids could play and I was the house. And I would make a few extra hundred bucks a week. Nice. And that was great because like, you know, between that and my job at Burger King, it really helped. And then I would go and take that. And I actually came pretty decent at Blackjack.
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And I would go, there would be these, what's called charity casinos. So casinos in Ottawa, Ontario were illegal. But if they were to raise charity for various charities, they were allowed. And so my friend and I would show up at these things and just run them over.
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I'll tell you my two scams after you tell us yours. Well, by the way, I'll tell you, I had a bad debt situation in my lunch game. You know, I used to let people bet up to a buck. Okay, so four or five guys up, you know, 25 cents, 50 cents or a dollar. And one guy, he like demanded an expanded credit line. And so I gave him up to two bucks. How many boxes of Ziti did he go down?
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And one lunch, he lost 80 bucks and it took me three months to get paid. It was the worst experience. 80 boxes of Ziti? No, $80. No, I know. I'm just doing a soprano. I had to sweat this guy for three months to get my $80. He was rich, too. His parents were rich.
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Ooh, say more. Yeah, I don't know. I grinded out fake IDs with a buddy of mine.
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We used Harvard Graphics. Zach, what were you using? I was using Harvard Graphics.
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Does it taste like beef?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I don't remember. I don't remember. The key... I had one drink. Now, the key in the fake ID game is to use your month and day that's yours and then just change the year. Yes. That's the key. That's the key.
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And then you present an award to the person that actually is helping them stamp out the disease. We celebrated the people that found the gene that caused Parkinson's. And then, yeah, I mean, the people at that is pretty incredible. It's in LA, right? They did it in Los Angeles? Yeah. I mean, like, look, Yuri Milner and Julia Milner, Zuck and Priscilla Chan and Anne Wojcicki and Sergey Brin.
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Is that the largest, most listened to podcast in the world?
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Oh, you're manifesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Just so you know, tonight is a murderer's row and Hellmuth is flying back. You saw the lineup. I'm very excited to see what happens today. Is Jason Kuhn coming or no? Yeah.
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In your life. Just you could not be more low-key and self-effacing than Roble and Kuhn for how good they are.
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So I would say the most dynamic
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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would probably be Robo because Robo has the most experience playing super, super high stakes cash.
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I think Kuhn is the most precise and like true to GTO.
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Those six people are the ones that organized this breakthrough prize. And I think it's just modern version of the Nobel, which tries to really shine a spotlight on people doing really groundbreaking work in physics and math and life sciences. And so you get people that have just done things that are just very practical, and are very real.
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Hard to exploit. I mean, Kuhn is impossible to exploit. Impossible. No mistakes. No mistakes. No mistakes. Robo knows how to gamble in certain spots. Kuhn knows how to be unexploitable. And the third player is Falamuth. And the third person is Helmuth. And Helmuth just loses his mind.
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It is so... No, the thing with Helmuth is he's capable, unlike anyone I've ever seen, of folding in spots that are... And he's correct, by the way. I've seen Helmuth fold ace-king in spots that none of us would ever do it. I've seen him fold kings in spots that are basically impossible. So Helmuth is able to get these soul reads on people that I think... are amazing. Yeah.
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But look, the higher and higher the stakes get, the more and more I think Robo will be comfortable and Kuhn will just go to a playbook that he knows and trusts.
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It's going to be a unique experience.
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Oh my God. That would be dark. Unless this thing is in the bag. It's got to be too big to rig. If it's too big to rig, I'm going to Mar-a-Lago. Too big to rig.
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I've explained this before. Polymarket is people betting on the outcome. So 58% think Trump's going to win. Whereas the polls in a particular state show the percentage of how each person's going to vote. Hmm. So if for sure you knew the election was 51-49, the betting markets would swing to 100-0.
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I mean, they're both very exciting products. I don't think I've got a lot to add.
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It's possible he's laggy in his estimates. The betting markets seem to go based on momentum. It indicates the swing in momentum.
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Well, Trump over the past few weeks seems to have had a surge owing to the fact that Kamala's interviews generally don't go well. So I think she started off a little behind, started doing interviews to catch up, and now she's a lot behind. I don't think the Bear interview is going to help her.
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Can you just go back and explain how would they drive up EBITDA so much?
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That's where I think the logic breaks down. I don't think Uber customers want to be cross-sold on booking a hotel. See, this is where I think MBA thinking is very different than product thinking. An MBA looking at this would say, well... You know, Expedia and Uber are both in the travel business. Their apps both involve booking trips.
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So we can we can cross sell Expedia from Uber and then cut Expedia's marketing budget. I think that's how an MBA would sort of hand wave over it. I think the way like a product manager would look at this is to say, what does the user want to do? And I know that when I use the Uber app, I just want to basically make a couple of clicks, set my destination, get my car, and then move on.
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And there was a product initiative a few years back at Uber where they tried to capture the user's attention during the ride. And they, you know, they added... That's right.
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It's actually printing money for them. It was like an entertainment stream or something inside the app. No, but they dialed it way back because I don't see it anymore. It was just clutter.
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what the uber user would want and he could rationalize some percentage of them they could cross sell expedia services into i mean ultimately i think it's it's his decision right like well i mean what you're describing is basically a private equity play like dar is going to come in as like a private equity buyer effectively and he knows the business and will run it to reduce cost may boost some revenue and maybe there is a justification for that but
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If you're trying to justify it based on cross-selling, I don't think users of the Uber app want to be cross-sold when they book a taxi. They just want to be able to affect their transaction as efficiently as possible. And just to finish the point I was making on that whole entertainment stream that they had, they dialed that product way back because it got in the way.
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You'd be in the Uber app trying to figure out how to change your destination or something, and all of a sudden you're being shown some entertainment product. It's not what users wanted. And it was always kind of a banana's idea to think that just because the user books an Uber that you own their attention during that ride.
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Because during that ride, you're really competing with every app on the iPhone, right? And that's the problem is you want to get in and out of the Uber app. It's about transacting efficiently.
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I'm never going to think to go on my Uber app for that. The only time I open. But what if they put that feature in there?
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You know, when I open the Uber app, when I want to hail a taxi, that's what it's like.
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I would not think to go into Uber to do that. It would just be clutter.
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Yeah, yeah. The more Uber tries to promote some unrelated product, and what I mean by unrelated is it doesn't help you get to where you're going at that moment. It's clutter in the app. What about Uber Eats, Zags?
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That is highly related to this basically booking a car to pick up some food.
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It's still the taxi business, basically.
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I don't think booking a vacation is an adjacency to ordering food.
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Well, the question is what appeals to that small sliver of independence.
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Well, just to finish my thought was that you'll notice that Uber eats a separate app from Uber. right? I mean, I know you can get to the eats part within Uber, but they created a separate app for a reason. It's because whether you're using Uber Eats or Uber, the goal is immediate gratification. I want to get to where I'm going. I don't book it six hours in advance. I call it right now.
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And the most important thing to me is wait time. This is why Uber is beating Lyft is the wait time is lower. Same thing with food. I'm not thinking about booking my dinner right now. I'm not going to do it in advance. If you browse through the restaurants, the most important piece of data they show you in addition to the rating, is the number of minutes it takes for it to get to you.
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So those apps are all about immediate gratification. And that's why you don't want other things getting in the way of them. Now, I guess the claim is somehow you're going to be able to cross-sell the booking of a vacation or a hotel that you have to think about days or weeks in advance. It's just a completely different state of mind.
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The question I would ask back to you is, if the Brett Baier interview was going so well for Kamala, why was her staff on the sidelines waving to try and end the interview? Apparently, they had like four people waving and trying to cut the interview off. Who said that was the case? He did. Brett Baier said it. So it was like in Rocky IV,
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I just don't think that there's much opportunity to cross-sell that. Or to use the technical jargon, I don't think the attach rate is going to be high.
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I can see that. Yeah.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So maybe what you could do is take VRBO, rebrand it as Uber Hotel or Uber Travel, whatever you want to call it. Exactly. And then maybe you could push people to download that app.
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You could quantify the value of the installs, right? So.
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when Apollo Creed's corner is like yelling, throw in the damn towel, throw in the damn towel. They couldn't wait to get off the stage after 26 minutes. I just think that if it was going that great. Allegedly, allegedly.
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Yeah.
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I don't think Brett Barrett's going to lie about that. I don't know why he would lie about that. Why would they get her off the stage after 26 minutes if it was going so great? I'm not saying it went as horrible as some of the partisans on the other side are saying, but I don't think it went that great.
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Well, I think that she went, she did the interview precisely to get the talking point that she does adversarial interviews because that talking point was earning them. And so you saw like all of her fans in the media were saying, well, see, she can walk into the lion's den. But again, she did the shortest interview possible. I don't think she answered the questions directly.
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Well, I don't think we're going to. Because I don't think anyone wants a nuclear power plant in their backyard. It's really simple. I mean, no matter what the benefits are for AI or for America's global competitiveness, I just don't think your typical community wants a nuclear power plant in their backyard. And I don't think it matters that much if it's a small modular one either.
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Yeah, and probably for good reason. I mean, I don't want a nuclear power plant in my backyard. Do you? I feel like this has suddenly become a little bit of a luxury belief where... liberal elites are always talking about how we need to have nuclear power now, but there, you know, they're not going to have a nuclear power plant in their backyard.
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So it's easy for all of us to genuflect about what a great idea this is, but let's face it. These things are gonna be built probably in poor or working class communities, And inevitably, there's going to be some accident. I mean, you can tell me how safe they are to your blue in the face. I don't believe it. You know, planes aren't supposed to fall out of the sky either. And it does happen.
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And you know, they're going to set up a power one of these power plants somewhere. And you know, it's probably going to have a DEI program and something's going to happen. I mean, something's going to happen. And then the fallout is literally going to fall out on the people in that poor community.
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Look, this is a perfect example of liberal business elites demanding something... That isn't going to affect them. It's not going to affect them.
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How close do you want it to your ranch, Junko?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Who's going to work there? Who's going to service it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I think she filibustered a lot. She deflected a lot. I don't think she was particularly persuasive. I don't think she convinced anybody. So I think that what you saw there was somebody who just wanted to get it over with as quickly as possible to check the box on, okay, does adversarial interviews. Trump, on the other hand, he actually likes doing these things. The Bloomberg interview.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
ends up becoming a Luddite— China doesn't have to worry about a NIMBY problem. That's right. The CCP just says, this is what we're going to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You're going to have to give them an incentive because no one's going to want to live within 200 miles of one of these things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And they're right. I mean, you compare it to commercial airlines, but commercial airlines, that's the technology that's been around for what, like 100 years?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Let's see the data. Where's the data?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I'd like to actually... My point about commercial airlines is we've had that technology for over 100 years. It was honed and refined over many decades. And commercial airlines now have become... This is going on 100 years of use, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
There have been incidents every decade or two. And that is why... That's not true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
The reason nuclear has been discredited is because of Three Mile Island and Fukushima and Chernobyl.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I mean, these names live in infamy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It's all filibustered. Come on. It's all anecdotes. He can do the weave. He can do the anecdotes. But he's also very good at coming back on the interviewer when they get adversarial. And the audience was with him. They gave him a standing ovation. He went for 64 minutes compared to her 26. I just think there's no comparison. I think Trump is someone who relishes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I'm not fear-mongering. Listen, listen. I'm... I'm just saying I don't want one near me. Now, if they're... Hold on a second. I'm not saying you can't... There were 46 deaths at Chernobyl. I'm not against doing it somewhere where the community is in favor of doing it. So if you can find a place that wants to do this, I would not stop it. Just to be clear. I'm just saying I don't want one near me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Let's get to facts. Yeah, we got you. J. Cal, just give me a second. Yeah, yeah. I don't think you're going to find many takers, even among poor communities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
If they're so new, how can you say for sure what the safety record is going to be?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
walking into lines and doing those interviews. I think Harris did it because she felt like she had to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I don't think that's... Maybe it's not such a bad thing that other countries are taking the early adopter risk with this technology.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
We're cutting all this out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Would you own 10 miles outside Austin?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
This is why I do this. Next time, plug a company I have a stake in.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I think this is a classic luxury belief where it's easy for you to espouse this for everybody else, for the nation, because you know the downsides aren't going to fall on you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Like I said, I'm not against doing it. If you can find a community that's willing to do it. And if you put it where there's no humans, then yeah, that's going to work. So there we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You better get some robot employees.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Zero interest. Let's go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You're like virtue signaling.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Yes. It's a luxury belief. You're promoting something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You heard it here first. Because they're going to put these things in poor communities. No, they're not. And so it's never going to affect your life. They're putting them next to data centers. Everything is not identity politics.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It's easy for you to say, oh, I support nuclear. Look how progressive I am. Look how smart I am. You haven't internalized the downsides.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I'm defending the poor. You're going to put these things in poor communities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I'm being realistic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I'm defending the right of communities to say no to this. To your science experiment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I'm defending the right of local communities to say no to your science experiment, okay?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
There's going to be lawfare all over the place.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Do you really think so, David? Yeah, I do. I mean, look, I'm definitely not at the top of the list. Elon's at the top of the list, right? He has no choice but to go all in. They're already doing lawfare against him. But I think the point is just that if they're not defeated, they're going to keep doing it because there's no downside for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
No, but she did it in an official context. I think she was like retweeting it. There was like a tweet from her.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
She was taking credit for it. I mean, in a way, she does a favor. She's proud of it. She said the quiet part out loud. So in a way, she does a favor, which is she acknowledged that all of this lawfare against SpaceX and Elon is political. She basically pleaded guilty to it. Look, she's proud of it because she doesn't think there's anything wrong with it. She thinks this is her job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
As a bureaucrat, she's supposed to punish people who tweet things that you're not supposed to say. That basically is what it comes down to. And I mean, this is the truth about lawfare. They're using the agencies of the federal government to exact reprisals against their political opponents. And if there's not a punishment for that, it's going to keep going.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
By the way, the Biden-Harris administration could stop that. They could say no more lawfare, but they don't do that because the tone was set from the top.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
He's very selective. It's for friends. to get invited.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
No Supreme Court decision. Please. Right now, the only candidate who looks like he could get a landslide is Trump. Otherwise, it's going to be very close. So you're rooting for Trump if you want a landslide.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
That's really hard to figure out. I'm sure the audience will be held in great suspense by that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
We need to get merch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
She still can't really explain how she's different than Joe Biden, other than the fact that he's a white male and she's a woman of color. So beyond just sort of the superficial differences, she can't explain on a policy level what she would do differently. She's had so many opportunities to say that. They asked her on The View. They asked her on Stephen Colbert. Brett Baer asked her in his way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And she still can't explain what she would do differently. And I think that is the fundamental problem she has in her campaign is voters still don't know who she is or what she would do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You're the only person talking about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
That's not the interview I saw. I saw the interview he just did with Martha Raddatz was she was saying that Trump was exaggerating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You're the only one who's fixated on it. No one who is persuadable who doesn't have TDS cares about that topic anymore.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It's not what they're asking, J.D. If you want to talk about interviews that J.D. Vance has done, talk about the one that's actually going viral right now. And that was the interview he did with Martha Raddatz, where she starts saying that, you know, we've only had a few of these apartment buildings taken over by foreign gangs. And he's like, do you realize what you're saying?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You know, there's no comeback from that. He destroyed her. It was very compelling what he did. And every interview he does is like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Well, if things continue to look good for Trump, I might go to Mar-a-Lago. I might.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
federal holiday, make it- Well, right now, you've got Biden's DOJ is literally suing the state of Virginia, which is required by Virginia law to clean the voter rolls of illegal immigrants. And they've been doing that. And Biden's DOJ has sued to stop that. In California, like you said, we now have a new law signed by Gavin Newsom to make it illegal to ask for voter ID.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So Democrats seem to be undermining the integrity of elections, not fortifying it. So when you ask, you know, why do Republicans distrust elections? Maybe it has something to do with the way that Democrats are acting. But I agree with you. I think that cleaning up the voter rolls, having a minimum standard for voter verification, is something that I think should be done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I could live stream from Mar-a-Lago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
According to the Constitution, the states basically run their own elections, but it doesn't make sense to me that in a one-party machine politics state, where basically one party controls the state, that they could set up a system that effectively entrenches their power forever in federal elections.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It just seems to me that the federal government has a compelling interest that must be constitutional in ensuring a minimum standard of honesty in federal elections. So I think it would be great to do something about this next year. I think that if you want people to stop questioning elections or engaging in election denial, you need to make the elections above reproach. So let's do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Of course I'm invited. I talked to Jared. If things look as good as they do right now, then I think I'm going to have to go to Mar-a-Lago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Today is the day. Congratulations, child. Oh, congratulations. How old, Chamath? No gender name or any other specifications, folks. We can't tip anybody off. No pronouns. We can't tip anybody off. No pronouns. Yes, absolutely. So how are they experiencing their birthday? This child has experienced a wonderful life, and this child is an incredible person.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Not to tell tales out of school, but somebody that we all know in our group chat posted something about the fact that the consumer growth had stalled. I don't know how they knew that, that maybe they got some data or maybe they're an investor. You guys know what I'm talking about. And they said that they're trying to reinvigorate growth into the consumer app at OpenAI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I wrote this in my annual letter, but there are these phases of growth. And when you look at social networks as a perfect example, Friendster was magical when it was first created, right? And then you had MySpace that just ran circles around them because Friendster didn't really invest the money and the quality that it took to create a moat. And then MySpace really wasn't able to compete.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
for whom I have tremendous admiration and love and compassion and hope for the future. All right. And did you order them some chicken fingers? I cannot comment on who this person is. Chicken fingers. Are you talking, of course, about Phil Hellmuth? Your child, Phil Hellmuth. Can we please talk about last weekend's festivities in Vegas? What a disaster he is. Oh, my God.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So we were, you know, Facebook, we were the eighth or ninth when we showed up on the scene and we ran circles around everybody. I think what it means is that there are these phases of product development which exist in many markets. This market, I think, is going through the same thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And right now, we're in the first, what I would call primordial ooze phase, which is everybody's kind of like running around like a chicken with their heads cut off. There's all these core basic capabilities that are still so magical when you see them. But we all know that five and 10 years from now, these things will be table stakes, right? And what Freeberg just showed is a table that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
of many companies and many trillions of market cap, all effectively running to the same destination. So I think where we are is probably within two years of where the basic building blocks are standardized. And then I think the real businesses get built. So I will maintain my perspective here, which is the quote unquote Facebook of AI has yet to be created.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
But our friend Jason, just to kind of complete the thought, said something about the premium conversion, right? That's what he said. I don't know how he knows that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Guys, just so you guys know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So much fun to make.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I had such a lovely time coming home, to be totally honest with you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I think you're totally right. I think that's such a really important observation. That's why I think the incentive for these folks is going to be to push this stuff into the open source. Because if you solve a problem that's operationally necessary for your business, but it isn't the core part of your business,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
What incentive do you have to really keep investing in this for the next five and 10 years to improve it? You're much better off like Klarna, for example, right? We talked about the amazing improvement and savings that Klarna had by improving customer support. Release it in the open source, guys. Let the rest of the community take it over so that it's available to everybody else.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Otherwise, you're going to be stuck supporting it. And then if and when you ever wanted to switch out a model... GPT-4.0, 4 to 4.0 to Claude to Lama, it's going to be near impossible and it's going to be costly. So I also think, Sax, the incentive to just push towards open source in this market, if you will, is so much more meaningful than any other market. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Explain what it is. So there was this moment where when you were trying to build data centers, you'd have these like one you rack mounted kind of like machines that you used. And what Facebook observed was there was only a handful of companies that provided it. And so it was unnecessarily expensive.
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GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And so Facebook just designed their own and then released the specs online, just kind of said, here it is. And they went to these Taiwanese manufacturers and other folks and said, please make these for your cost plus a few bucks. And it was revolutionary in that market because it allowed this open platform to sort of embrace this very critical element that everybody needs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
poker dash update oh my god yeah well he kept tweeting and he leaked every single person who's there and the jets and the jet numbers he's like look here's me and elon elon came by for my dinner no no no it was worse than that no it's worth that he said i got to hang out with our guy elon for 10 minutes and 14 seconds he intercepted him at the valet
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GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And I think there's going to be a lot of these examples inside of AI because the costs are so extreme, so much more than just building a data center for a traditional web app, that the incentives to do it are just so meaningful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It feels killer-esque. J. Cal, can you do that again in Christopher Walken voice, please?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Brian Ryan is my guy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I'll hire Brian. I would reconstitute Kraft.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
How many minutes? 10 minutes and 14 seconds. He had the exact time, down to the second. Oh, my God.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Can I just make a comment on this? It's just so clean. JCal was the key for me in abandoning Slack. He told me two or three years ago, he called me and he said, I have, you can tell me the exact channels. I eliminated some channels that were random. There was like two or three channels that you banned that your Slack instance wasn't allowed to have. And I was like, this is genius.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And I went in and I was like, all of our companies should just eliminate these channels. And we could only get like 20% or 30% compliance. But it really started to turn me off Slack because I would get caught in these threads that were just so totally useless. And I thought, why aren't people working?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And this is really great because you cannot blather on about nonsense in Glue, which I find really useful. Well, this is what happens when Slack- We use it at 80, 90, just so you know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
There's a job to be done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's flipping coins.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No, the Baccarat sweat is the most incredible performative act ever. In the casino.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Oh, like you're curling your mustache like an evil villain? It's the evil villain. And then you call it, oh my God, no spotter. If you see it, no spotter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Then you lose a small house and then you're like, oh, let's try it again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Saks is like, how do I wet my beaker? Saks is interrogating the potato lines. I've never... What's going on?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Tell us about the patents and how important patents play a role in this, because isn't it like one of Monsanto's big things, like they just go and sue everybody into the ground or whatever?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Freeburg, when you look at a potato, how do you figure out what part of their DNA is the drought-resistant part? Yeah. And then how do you make sure that that's turned on? So even if you inherit that chromosome, is there some potential interaction with the... Generally, if we can... So these are what are called markers, genetic markers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So Helmuth asked us to play in the high stakes poker game on PokerGo. So it was me, Helmuth, Stanley, Sammy, House, and then Jen Tilly and Nick Airball and Roble. So most of the guys from the House game plus Jen Tilly and Nick Airball. Jennifer Tilly is amazing. What a great human and actress. Well, listen to this hand. literally the second hand of the actual poker game. Gentilly
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
So how do you want to make money, Friedberg? Are you going to sell the seeds? Are you going to become the direct farmer? Are you going to become food as a service? Like, how do you... make the most money from this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No comment. No comment. Yeah. I get tilted by the quality of the Driscoll's blueberries. Let me tell you something about the Driscoll's blueberries. Also, the Driscoll, I've had only one batch of a Driscoll's strawberry that was just off the charts. And every 19,847 other batches I bought have been total sh**.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Yes, then cut it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Oh my God, how great would that be?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I'm going to go in as soon as this is done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Can you go back to the patent stuff? Like, are you some seed person?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
is in the big blind. No, sorry, she's under the gun. She raises. Hausenbold three bets. It comes all the way around to me on the button. I look and I have pocket kings. I ship the whole cheeseburger. Comes back to Tilly. She ships. House ships. Listen to these hands. Jen Tilly has aces. Jeff Hausenbold has kings. I have kings. Oh, my God. I've never seen a cooler hand like this in my life.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I speak on behalf of J. Cal and I said, we will gladly invest a million at a 10 cap in both of your businesses. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
We will work our way into J. Cal. J. Cal and I will do the deal. We'll wire the money. We'll wire the money. A little million to each of you guys at a 10 cap. Thank you. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Congratulations to both of you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
There's a great clip of Millay. He goes on this talk show in Argentina and the talk show host, she's just so excited and greets him. And then they start making out. Have you guys seen this? What? They're just guys out of control. Full on French kissing each other. It's hilarious. Yeah, Soros has been very famous for this invest and investigate thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's like a smart strategy for very, very liquid public market investors that have the curiosity that he does. I don't have much of a reaction to that. I think that the thing with Argentina that's worth taking away is when you've spent decades casting about and misallocating capital and running your economy into the ground, the formula for fixing it is exactly the same.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
You cut entitlements and you reinvigorate the economy. And so the thing we need to take away is if we don't get our shit together, that's probably what we're going to have to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
We'll all be out. In the second hand of the game. Anyways. Wow. Don't worry, guys.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Chantilly. She tripled up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Then I stacked her right. Anyways, I don't want to reveal the game, but it was wonderful, this one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
She's very charming. Great actress. Very charming. Great actress.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Right. Absolutely. So that happens a lot. I didn't even know what a Facebook was when I joined Facebook. It's an American college phenomenon. No, seriously. You don't have that in Canada.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
But speaking of bets, Jaykal, you told me this week that you just made your largest investment ever. Tell us about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Yeah, you're 80-90ing. So at 80-90, we have this funny thing where we've made it a verb. Whenever you see somebody doing high quality work at a quarter to a tenth of the cost, we say, oh, you just 80-90ed it. Correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
The way that companies will work in five and 10 years, I don't think, guys, any of us are going to recognize what it's going to look like.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I got myself and my co-founders at 8090, we get this stream of emails of companies that are like, or people that are like, we have this product idea or we have this small product. One of the emails I got, this is crazy, was from a guy that's like, oh, we've 8090 Photoshop. So like we have like a much, much cheaper version of Photoshop.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And the guy was doing like a few million bucks of ARR and growing really nicely. But then it turned out that somebody saw that and then 8090'd it. So then there's an open source version of that thing. And so to your point, Friedberg, none of these big companies stand a chance. Yeah. Everything is going to get cheaper and faster.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Not because the products aren't good, but like JCal is going to go off and experiment with this. SAC's going to go off and build a product. You know, as every time that you're at a boundary condition, we're all going to explore, well, maybe we could do this with AI. Maybe we shouldn't hire a person. Not because we're trying to be mean about it, but it's because the normal, natural thing to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And the OPEX of companies is just going to go down, which means the size of companies are going to shrink, which means the amount of money you need is going to go down. And that's just going to create the ability for these companies to sell those products cheaper.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Did you guys see the Google thing? Did you guys see the Google AI Gemini stuff?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
The workflow stuff in Gmail also kicked ass.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
The demo that they showed was you get a bunch of receipts and the person giving the demo, she said something to the effect of, well, wouldn't it be great if like, you know, the AI assistant were able to find all the receipts and then aggregated them and put them in a folder and then also actually generated an expense report or like a spreadsheet on the fly? It... It's crazy. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I got to say, I think that it's free to change your mind. And so it's good to do that. Oh.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I change my mind all the time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Sorry, I know to blow your ears out. I think the Google thing is pretty special. Between last week's announcement of isomorphic labs, which let's be honest, that's just a multi-hundred billion dollar company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Look at a company like Royalty Pharma. So Royalty Pharma, it's a phenomenal business run by a phenomenal entrepreneur, Pablo Lagareta. But what is that business? That's buying 2% and 3% royalties of drugs at work. And you can see how much value that those guys have created, which is essentially 90% EBITDA margin business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's outrageous because they're in the business of analyzing and then buying small slivers. I think something like isomorphic ends up being of that magnitude of margin scale, but at an order of magnitude or two orders of magnitude higher revenue. So if you fold that back into a Google algorithm,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
If you think about what they're doing now on the search side, these guys may be really kicking some ass here. So I think that the reports of their death were premature and exaggerated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I would like to take this opportunity to wish... My child, happy birthday. I absolutely f***ing love you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Love you, boys. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And to your point, a lot of the people that come on and increasingly a lot of people ask to come on because they know we're not journalists. And so for all of those folks that expect us to be journalists. That's not what we are. We're for entrepreneurs. We're for business people. We're for friends. We're for technologists. We're for curious people. We're for poker players.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
But we're not for journalists. And so we're going to ask whatever we feel like asking. Sometimes those things will touch a chord because it's what you wanted to have asked. And sometimes we won't go to a place whether we didn't have time to or whether we forgot or whether we chose not to. And I think it's important to have that disclaimer. Like we have day jobs and this is what we do
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
To coalesce a bunch of information in the way that we're thinking about the world. So we are not journalists. So please don't have that expectation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No, but that's because you asked it from a position of curiosity. You weren't trying to catch the guy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
This is my point. That's why it comes out differently. And that's why I think people enjoy these conversations. And sometimes we don't get to the other kind of answer because I'm not interested in trying to gotcha somebody that's working hard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No, no, no, but I'm saying it rarely lands on the same day. Today is the day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Love you guys. Nice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they're all just useless. It's like this sexual tension that they just need to release somehow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
That was unreal.
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Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
No, and, and, They're just smarter. So I'll give you a simple example. Maybe we'll talk about this later, J. Cal, I'm not sure. But when I saw the DOJ's theoretical guidance on the Google antitrust matter, their idea is to divest the browser. And I kind of scratched my head thinking, would any reasonable business person think that that was the right remedy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Meanwhile, three weeks later, Google's like, here's a super chip in quantum computing that breaks the world. And I thought, how is it that these folks are so disconnected from reality that they don't understand what's actually sitting inside this company? And I think it's in part because they don't know the right questions to ask.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And the reason they don't know what the right questions to ask is they've never worked in the real working world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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This is also bureaucrats. So my point is these folks need to get off the sideline and work in a company for a while, know the bowels. They'll be much better able to guide these regulatory agencies if they actually just know what's going on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So if the right answer is some antitrust issue with a company where you need to divest, wouldn't it be great where like 100 smart businessmen looked at that and said, that makes sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Doing great. Fresh off the holiday spectacular.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
They're absolutely right, and that's how it should work. The United States can no longer afford to be a bleeding piggy bank for bad ideas. So yeah, if a bureaucrat thinks the right thing to do is to divest a random browser to fix Google's monopolistic tendencies,
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This is not logical. It's not meaningful. It's misguided. So if what we want is kindergarten soccer, where everybody gets to touch the ball, that's what we are getting right now, which is it's not useful. So I would rather have a business person with a direct point of view.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And by the way, with the level of transparency, the big issue, I guess, Freebrook, that that would create is could these people advantage themselves somehow to make more wealth? But the reality is, That would be so obvious and laid bare. What happens today is they burrow at this mid-level of an organization and they do exactly this, but it's not laid bare.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I'd rather be a transparent where some guy tries to take the government for $500 million and we castigate that person than what's happening today, which is you slip in the back door, you get paid four or 500 grand from a company, then you come back to the government, then you go back. Nobody knows who these people are. Nobody knows the decisions they're making.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And they're altogether misguided because they're not grounded in an understanding of the real economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I saw Sundar post it. I saw it in my feed. I ended up missing my next meeting because I had to figure out how long will it take for us to crack the encryption standards that we use for Bitcoin. Nick, here's the answer because I was so tilted by this idea. So if you think of Willow as essentially like one stable logical qubit equivalent in a chip, We need about 4,000 to break RSA 2048.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And we need about 8,000 to break SHA-256, which is the underlying encryption framework for Bitcoin. So I think you're right. I think we're in the sort of like- The endgame? Two to five year shot clock. No, I mean, I think what will have to happen is some of these chains will need to obviously re-implement something at a pretty foundational level.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The weird thing, as Freebrook says, is like the Willowchips error correction gets better the more of these things you start to use together. Now, there are some really big problems inside these chips, like logical interconnects are very complicated. If you put two chips on a board, like the C2C communication is complicated.
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Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
All this stuff that we haven't figured out how to do, but this is a big deal. I was really like, my God, what's going on here?
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It's really incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Hold on, hold on. He worked, he went to LinkedIn. That's how it all started.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
You have a lossy transistor and then you'll figure out PN junctions. You'll figure out all of these ways of just like getting the error correction down. But by the way, this reinforces what you said before, which is it's hard for an outsider like us to comprehend what's really happening inside of Google because the business they built was able to fund this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I mean, and I went down a rabbit hole because I'd never heard of who this guy was that runs his helmet, Nevin. He's in Santa Barbara.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
He has his own law, Nevin's law. And then I went down the rabbit hole of that. But what's amazing is, so valuable for humanity, Google had the money to fund him for the last 12 years. Exactly. The greatest money printing machine of all time is paying dividends. Yeah. But isn't it great to know that Google takes these resources from search and
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And sure, maybe there's waste or maybe they could have done better with the black George Washington or maybe they could have done better with YouTube. But the other side is they've been able to incubate and germinate these brilliant people that can toil away and create these important step function advances for humanity. It's really awesome. DeepMind is on that list as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I joined him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Keith, what are your thoughts about it? DeepMind, yeah.
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Yeah. 10 to the 25th number of years. That's the big, I think, hole in the whole RCS benchmark that they use, that it only is, it's a framework that only a quantum computer could theoretically even provide a solution.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I have to say, Friedberg, I don't think you've skied with me and Jason. Jason is an excellent skier. I mean, his form is beautiful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
How do you build a compiler? Who the hell knows? How do you build language properly? These are all complicated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I have. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Before we jump in, I actually have a question for you. Starting already. How does that happen, Keith? How do you, you're at Founders, sorry, and then you get, what, like, what pulled you to go and work with Vinod? And then what pulled you back? Like, how does that process work? Because these things are typically meant to be sort of forever jobs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Here it comes. Buckle in, free bird.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Or no?
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Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Let's move on.
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Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
No, I was thinking about Schrodinger's cat. That's like another ridiculous thought experiment that when you go down there. It's the same concept. It's the same concept.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You don't know whether it's in the box or not until you open the box. Until you open the box.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
He's more open to science. More stylish, better BMI. I need to defend Sachs. They both said, this is stupid and I'll never touch it. Except Keith was kinder and more articulate in getting there. He did. Sachs would have just been snoring.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
There's things in the real world. Big shout out to Gukesh D, my Indian friend, 18 years old, new world champion. I saw that. You know chess world champion. Wow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Is that who he played? Listen, bro, listen. Every Brown guy that's done any random useful thing in the world, we all know each other. We're in a huge group chat. Oh, is it really? Yeah, it's just how it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Is it like the top 10 tech companies? The group chat's name is What Can Brown Do For You?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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My iPhone does not work. I'm sorry. I'm just going to say it. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I... After three years, I upgraded to the newest phone. I upgraded to the newest OS. The phone doesn't work, meaning like to call people, I can't call my wife anymore. I can't call my kids anymore. The phone bricks constantly. My photos app doesn't work. It is just really bad.
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And I think for a company of this scale, I don't understand how it does not go through a more complicated test harness that catches all of this. I'm sorry, I'm not trying to complain, but because I know it's hard for them and I know it's complicated, but it's really bad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you define software as it touches a consumer, Tesla, Apple, in some ways, Google, maybe Meta with the Meta glasses. Trying. Attempting. You can't say NVIDIA because I think NVIDIA touches the consumer through an app that then sits on top of CUDA, which I think that's a brilliant strategy for them, but
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I don't think, look, you don't need to necessarily terrorize people, but I do think you have to go through UAT. So I think it's pretty reasonable when you have a large footprint of consumers using an app to go through user acceptance. Testing is like first base. And typically what happens is you can do a process of a few months where several hundred thousand people get it all over the world.
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And as long as you do an okay job of getting a decent distribution of people, this would have come out. But I want to just talk about what Keith said as well. It's literally not just photos. It's like the phone doesn't work. So there are just core structural issues with this operating system now that makes the iPhone maybe 10 to 30% less usable. And that's really frustrating.
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Do you need a machine learning chip to do inference to figure out that when you constantly run your phone at a certain level of brightness, you should just allow the phone to be at a certain level of brightness? Yeah, stop changing the damn brightness. Why does it read? This is not complicated software engineering, guys. No.
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That's a great take. That's a great take. I mean, you just go off the rails, right? You go off the rails. So Keith, you think that what happened is like when Steve Jobs isn't there and Johnny Ive isn't there, There's still a bunch of folks that probably think they have taste, but the real taste folks left, and there's really no scaffolding left to be more methodical.
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It's an incredible point because I... If I'm being really insecure, I would want to say, oh yeah, I know we had a lot of taste at Facebook back in the day, but actually we had so much scaffolding around data, probably because intuitively we knew that that was way more reliable for us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Sorry, Keith, can you double click into that? So how did it come into the open source that what he said was a lie? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Keith, why did you leave Founders Fund to go to COSA?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Keith, do you think that the Pegasus spyware that can infiltrate WhatsApp so that you can turn on the mic and listen remotely, and it has no fingerprints, it's very difficult to detect, do you think an equivalent, let's call it a backdoor, exists inside of TikTok?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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When I had dinner with him, one of the things that I pointed out to him was this specific thing. I said, you have to look at the Pegasus-like equivalent infiltration of WhatsApp having been done on TikTok. Because the reality is if TikTok has 200 million users, it is true that 199,999,000 just don't matter. So you could turn on the microphone, you're not going to hear anything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But there's probably 1,000 to 10,000 to 15,000 people, and I do suspect that state actors are smart enough to figure out how to triangulate who. You would want to be able to turn it on when that phone is in your pocket or when that phone is on a desk. And I'm sure you will hear all kinds of random things. And many of those things could be quite sensitive in nature.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I think that this is something that the government's going to have to look at really intensely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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100%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Oh, you know what I bought? Yes. I just bought recently a Denver cut, which I'd never tried. Incredible. Denver cut?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
They're waiting to get disrupted by crypto stablecoins. Seriously, talk about missing your window. Get out there, boys. They bought that crypto stablecoin company for like a billion dollars. Defensive, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, totally different timeline. Or the public currency to have bought WhatsApp.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Well, I was just going to ask Keith a question, which is what is the game theory behind Stripe not going out? What's the strategic rationale?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I think Keith said it pretty well, which is that we do have a lot of experience with how tariffs can be implemented and that the practical experience is not what the fear mongering is about. That being said, I think the devil will be in the details, which markets for which goods, what is the tariff and why?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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What I hope happens is that if we can really study the second and third order degree impacts of some of these markets, what the tariff does is it acts almost as a reverse subsidy for American companies to compete. I'll give you one very narrow example. If you believe in electrifying the American economy, one of the underlying things that you need are electric motors, right?
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Electric motors and electric batteries. And just to double click on electric motors for a second, electric motors needs a permanent magnet. If you look inside of a permanent magnet, there are these rare earths that are just required to make these magnets. But as it turns out, it is impossible for any company that is not a Chinese company
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to be able to manufacture these magnets in an economically viable way. And the reason is because not only can China make it and they can make it in the absence of a lot of environmental controls, they'll also subsidize. So if anybody tries to compete, they'll just inject a subsidy into that economic supply chain where they're always cheaper. So what do you do, Jason?
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If you can observe that and realize that we want supply chain diversity, What the tariff does is it starts to push back on those kinds of activities because it doesn't allow it to continue to work. Then if you take that with what the United States government already does through the DOE, which is through subsidies and underwriting,
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This is what I mean by it could be a really amazing new moment for the American economy. And that would please a lot of people, including a lot of people on the left, if they just took the time to understand what's being proposed.
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Why can't we get them? We have one of the largest lithium deposits in the world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The lithium supply chain is another really good one that's emblematic of all of this, but there are so many other markets. I'm sure that if you looked in something that's a little bit more down the middle like appliances, what you would also see is the same thing where Whirlpool will try to make an appliance or Bissell will try to make a vacuum cleaner and the Chinese equivalent
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makes it almost like fighting uphill. And there has to be a way to course correct that.
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version of this. I wrote this in my weekly newsletter, but I was curious why these Chinese models are so good. And I was like, the training of these models seems to be quite fast. The quality of these models are really good, the Alibaba model, et cetera.
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Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And part of what you realize is when they do their training runs, the Chinese models have no guardrails in the sense that there's no copyright checks. No. There's just none of these things that otherwise slow down an American company to make a useful model. They don't have any of those things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So that's another example where maybe there's not an economic tariff, but there has to be a simple reciprocity. And in the absence of reciprocity, I think it's reasonable to say that there needs to be checks and balances.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Awesome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I mean...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
We have a good lineup of co-hosts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Thank you. Thank you for joining us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Have you guys seen that clip of the guy with the fake bum that runs around the city?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Can you find a clip of this guy? Oh my God, it's so ridiculous.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Here's an interesting tweet that I saw, Nick. Can you just share it with the guys?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The reason why it was interesting to me was not the net worth per se, but I think this is the first time that I can remember in modern history, at least, that I've been in the United States and following US politics where such an enormous number of business people have been motivated to come and work inside of the administration.
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And I think that it creates this very interesting contrast and compare. I think that the Democrats would never have assembled a group of people like this, even though the Democratic Party has a version of this chart that they could have made. There's a lot of extremely talented business people that support the Democratic Party. The problem is that they believe it's deeply unfashionable
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to get strong, competent business people to take a pause in their business career and come work in government. And you almost look down on people that are successful. Whereas the Republican alternative here, if it creates... a movement, so to speak, so that subsequent presidents tap folks on the shoulder, I think we'll be much better off. And the reason is pretty simple.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think that the United States economy is too complicated to be managed by theoreticians, by folks with random PhDs and absolutely no working experience in the real world. And when you bring those people in to oversee those PhDs, I think you probably get better outcomes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I hope this becomes a standard, which is ask these very talented, clearly demonstrated, successful people with judgment to hit the pause for a year or three or five, whatever it is, step into government, help the country, and then go back.
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You want to hear an interesting factoid? Yes, please. There was an article in Bloomberg, I sent it to Nick, but people have been tracking the S&P 500 index versus the equal weighted index. So when you calculate the S&P 500 index, you weight it for the market cap. So the top seven or eight companies obviously get a lot more weight in it. And so they look at the spread between that index
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and an equal weighted index where every 500 companies are, you know, the 500 companies are each equal. And what's interesting is the spread right now is the most extreme since March of 2000, right before the dot-com crash. Jesus Christ. Thanks, Chamath. Well, this is Bloomberg's data, so I'm just repeating it. I read that article, but... That's incredible.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
It's a tie-in to the AI thing, I guess, that we're going to talk about soon, but... Next, yeah. We could be at the end of just an enormous hype cycle here where we have to contract the equity market. That's probably not a bad thing, by the way, because as Zach said, one of the things that you have to do is I think you have to underwrite to a rate of return.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And right now, nobody knows really what to do because... valuations would tell you that you should price to the low end, but then it's not really clear what the risk-free rate of return should be. So everybody's just sort of like they're shrugging and their arms are in the air and nobody knows what to do.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So if you really want to get the economy moving at some point, you're going to have to reset something. You're going to have to reset rates or you're going to have to set the equity risk premium in the stock market You're going to have to reset people's expectations around what is actually happening in the economy. And right now, we're in this limbo where none of those things have been decided.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
But there are all of these weird moments, like data points that you could use to kind of just justify your bias, quite honestly. But the point is that I think there's a lot of question marks right now, not a lot of answers.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
You cannot spend this kind of money and show no incremental revenue potential. So while this is incredible for NVIDIA, the chicken is coming home to roost. Because if you do not start seeing revenue flow to the bottom line of these companies that are spending $26 billion a quarter, the market cap of NVIDIA is not what the market cap of NVIDIA should be.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
bare chests. Can I tell you how good Italian white wine is on a hot, humid day? It may be the closest thing to ambrosia in modern society. It's just so good. Is that your sports drink? It's just like you get off the... I can picture you on like a treadmill. I drink so much white wine during the summertime, and I eat gelato every day, and I tend to still lose
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And all of these other companies are going to get punished for spending this kind of money. Where are all these newfangled things that we're supposed to see that justifies $100 billion of chip spend a year, $200 billion of energy spend, $100 billion of all this other stuff? We're now spending $750 billion. This is on the order of a national...
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transfer payment and we've seen nothing to show for it except that you can mimic somebody's voice. It doesn't all hang together yet.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Well, I think we're all converging on the same realization, which is you can't spend a trillion dollars and only have toy apps to show for it. So I think we've all been amazed by these AI demos. I think the four of us have talked pretty incessantly about it now for 18 plus months ever since we saw the first open AI demos. So that's great.
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And the underlying technology, I think, is really important. But it's also... important to acknowledge that the underlying technology has enormous gaps. There's gaps in the quality of the products that can be created to not have hallucinations. Those gaps are too large right now for them to be used reliably in production settings unless you have a very defined scope.
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A couple pounds by the time I get home.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
If you have a defined scope, though, The implementation costs are not nearly what needs the level of spend to support. So there's just a big mismatch. Second is that we have a huge problem with NVIDIA, and I'll just kind of say the quiet part out loud, which is you can't spend this kind of money to have technology lock in to one hardware vendor. And that makes no sense.
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And what you're seeing now is that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, AMD, Intel, a plethora of startups, GROK, everybody trying to make now different hardware solutions. The problem though that that creates is that we have this massive lock-in right now because the code is littered with all these NVIDIA specific ways of implementing access to GPUs. That's not sustainable.
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So we're in a bit of an existential thrash. And I think the only way that we're going to get around this is to do a little bit of a reset. And I think that's going to touch a lot of startups that have already taken down way too much money at really insane valuations.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Part of that was just because we needed, I guess the market wanted a place to believe in again after the crypto meltdown and after all of the other SaaS meltdown and all of the other stuff that we've gone through. So Yeah, I think that we are in a bit of a reckoning right now.
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It's going to be a complicated couple of quarters at a minimum and probably a complicated year to sort out who's actually real.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Be honest. You brought wine to the gym?
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
No, I opened it. It had to breathe. I went and then I had somebody just bring me a little sippy poops just so I could see if it was opening up properly.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Yeah, I mean, I don't think it's going to be the next couple of quarters, quite honestly. I do think in the next couple of decades.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And in the next couple of years, what I would hope ambitiously is that there are a few really useful proof points where companies are making revenue solving very specific defined problems, where quite honestly, you're taking workloads of X and making it X over 10, right? And I think that that's possible.
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But I think this generalized idea that all of this spend is going to have a good ROI, I think is pretty wishful thinking.
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Okay. Like, we've spent a trillion dollars. Let's say that there's four purchasing commits for, let's be generous and say only half that number. So now there's $1.5 trillion. So we're $1.5 billion in the J curve. How much total revenue does the entire AI economy that's established today need to generate to pay that back plus some reasonable rate of return? Revenue at a fair multiple.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And I think what I'm getting to is OpenAI is a good example of a company that's winning, but unless they somehow figure out a way to start making $50 billion, there's another $47 billion of revenue that's missing. That's my point.
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I'm just saying that's like just for the last couple of years of spend.
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That's a different explanation, which is we can just take the rate of return to zero because we have nothing better to do with the money. That's a fair answer as well, Jason.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
What do you think of Andreessen, this article that Andreessen just turned on 20,000 GPUs?
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A friend of mine who's a very successful debt fund manager, and I talked about it this week, a friend of the pod. I won't name check him, but he knows who he is. was and I am we're talking about this.
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And basically, I think if you look at the the most typical deal, so like, for example, the core weave deal, which was floating around, was something along the lines of 40% of the cost of all the GPUs was put up in cash and 60% was lent to core weave by a whole group of bankers. So assuming Andreessen was able to do roughly the same thing,
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The 20,000 GPU cluster at call it say 20 to 30,000 is between four and 600 million of cost. And if they get 60% of it financed, I hope they did, that still leaves 40% that they would have had to pay for, which you're still talking about $100 million plus. And so then the real question is, can they get enough equity back to make that $100 million investment worthwhile.
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And just to put a fine point on this, if that's 100 million of management fees, the reality is that that's actually $2 billion of value, right? Because these management companies trade at, call it, say 20 odd times. So what's so interesting about this is like, you take 100 million of management fee, that's worth 2 billion of enterprise value, you dump it into these chips and cash,
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So whatever equity you get from these startups will need to make about $2 billion plus a little bit to account for the time value of money. Otherwise, you were probably better off not doing this. That's just the math. I wonder if this is defensive.
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There's a lot of ongoing costs. Yeah, a lot of ongoing costs. Yeah. let's just say they'll spend that another 20 or 30 million over the next 10 years. My point is, it's a drag on your enterprise value that's probably in the billion plus dollar range. And so whatever equity you get needs to make up for that plus some.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
And my only comment is that if you then factor in, Sax, as you said before, the desire to get these NVIDIA chips down in price, but also to have hardware diversity, It's a really speculative bet, and you have to be really right.
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I don't think you need to do this to build a successful venture firm. I mean, if you wanted to maximize the value of the entity, you would keep the $100 million for yourself because then some investor will pay you a huge multiple for that.
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I'm just saying you have to see a path to make back what you're losing in enterprise value.
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I think that's an excellent point.
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It's a majority, but not a super majority.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
By the way, look, Look who's been the most ardent supporter of Joe Biden. It's been the progressive left. Those are the folks that have actually said, hey, and I think probably it's because there's a underlying quid pro quo at play, AOC, Bernie Sanders, all of these folks. Elizabeth Warren.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
If they support Biden and he wins a second term, I suspect that there's going to be a lot of their legislative agenda that basically gets put up for vote. 100%, 100%, yes.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
They want reasonable borders, reasonable immigration. If I had to kind of give you my opinion on all of this, I do think that when you look across all of these countries, I do think Freiburg is touching on something. But I think the explanation doesn't have to be this idea that people are embracing socialism.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
I think there's a much simpler explanation as well, which is that we've gone through a very difficult period of joblessness, of inflation, of high costs. And I think typically what happens is you have governmental turnover. in these moments. And so the incumbent gets tossed out and somebody else comes in and whatever they're saying seems like the new thing.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
So for example, in Canada right now, the opposite is trending, which is the liberal socialist government just looks totally incompetent. And it looks like the progressives, when this election happens, is just going to completely run over them. And so that's more of a swing to the right. So I think it's less left or right. I think it's incumbent
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
people who have not done necessarily a great job in these last four years getting tossed out for folks that are new. And I think that explains a lot of these elections more than socialism or anything else.
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Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Where Sachs is right. It's like, look, it's in every other country of the world. other than the West, you embrace the national traditions that make a culture its own. But if you came to Sri Lanka, you'd see people in saris, you'd see people dressed in traditional garb, You speak this one language that's somewhat complicated, not spoken anywhere else, although we teach English as well.
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But the point is that there are these cultural traditions, and that's just an example of a country that I know well, but many countries. If you look across Africa, it's the same. If you look across Asia, Central and South America. In the West, it's more of that you come and there's this kind of like odd monoculture. And I think at some point people are pushing back against it.
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I do agree with David that there is that pushback. And I think that that's a reasonable pushback. Well, America's very unique in that.
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No, no, no. So my only point, and I agree with you, J. Kelly, is as a country, you're allowed to have those beliefs. It's not that just because you're in the West, you have to throw that out. And all of a sudden, you have to succumb to this belief that everybody else's culture is better than the one that you've had for the last four or 500 years. I don't think that that's necessarily true.
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And I think you miss out on a lot by saying that.
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So to your point, I just think that when you look globally, there's a really interesting quote from Peter Thiel that actually is, he made this comment, which is, if you look at the 10 commandments, he's like, the first and the 10th are the most powerful because the first one is about looking up and the 10th is not about looking down and everything else is about looking left and right of you.
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And he brings it up in this context of all of these commandments, the middle eight, are all about how you should not be looking to the left and the right, figuring out and making yourself getting tilted about the fact that you have less than the other person. No coveting.
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And I just think that there may be something interesting in that idea, which is that what we've really done is we've created tools that have allowed you to just obsess and fantasize about all these random people's lives who you think are perfect, but they're just manufactured trying to get views anyways. And you just leave being angry and thinking your life sucks.
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And in fact, your life is actually not that bad. And I think if we had more truth and honesty and authenticity, maybe there would be less of this perception and you'd actually try to just enjoy what you have. And I don't think we've figured that out.
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They're branding Nostracanus. He has to finish this in two hours because he's taping with Jesse Waters.
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They had 95,000 people. We had 100 people.
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I'm putting you on the spot here. You've seen all these clips. Yeah. Do you think that there's an active cover-up going on by the White House about his cognitive system?
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No, but sorry. Kidding aside, you think there's a cover-up?
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Visited the White House, yeah.
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I mean, it's pretty incredible actually, but it looks like there's a really good chance that it has. I think the bigger question though is if we are on the verge of a real contraction in the economy. And I think there's been enough people that have warned.
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You have to remember, even though the stock market for seven companies is hitting all-time highs, the stock market for every other company that isn't those seven companies have not. And that really is about just the broad-based demand in the economy. So yeah, I think that inflation is contracting. But it could be contracting for a combination of reasons.
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Well, and the receipts are coming. Well, let's just play this out. So if there is a grand cover up, I think, Jason, you are right that there is too much time between now and the election. There will be a. deep throat Watergate style leak here. You know, there will be a Woodward and Bernstein and gets to the bottom of this. I just think the odds of that are 100% of it not happening are too low.
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So I guess then the real question is, is it that the only way to keep the charade going is the quote unquote threat of the Donald Trump boogeyman? Is that what they use basically to hang over these people to?
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One is because we have had high rates for a long time. But the other part is now people aren't employed. There is no money. And the question is whether you have some sort of contraction economically that is measured by a recession or not. I think that's a really big question. What happens in the next couple quarters? Do we have a little mini recession or not?
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This is amazing. I mean, you're name checking yourself here.
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Listen, so many times in the past, your head has been so far up your ass, but this time it's really real. You open it and you see your face, but it's you just name checking yourself.
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The Dunder Mifflin Inflation Index.
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Yeah. Wait, Freebird, are you saying the entire Florida coastline is no longer economically viable?
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At what price?
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If the expected life of a house is 20 years, then that's not viable.
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Does this apply to the entire coastline or just parts of it?
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Yeah, but is anyone talking about a federal bailout?
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A few weeks ago when I shouted out that Glue.ai was hiring engineers, we had like 100 applications just from that. From Glue.ai looking for engineers? From one plug on the show, yeah.
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I honestly hadn't heard that. I mean, the trend that I thought was happening was that you had these big funds, like BlackRock or whatever, buying up huge numbers of homes and then running them to… Low-end homes, yeah. Low-end or medium, you know, to families. I thought that's what was going on. I hadn't heard that.
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Yeah.
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So it was a good thing that I sold my Miami place.
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Well done, Sachs. You top ticked it again.
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I really love that house. You love that house?
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Why are you attacking Benioff? It's just a stray.
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It's a joke.
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He's chomping at the bit to come back on the pod and explain why AI is not going to disrupt SaaS. Really?
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He's texting me. He wants to come on. Okay, cool.
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Leave Benioff alone. It's like, how many new enemies do you want to create? Every week there's got to be somebody.
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Just when you thought he was running out of feuds, you know?
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Did you guys see that tweet that somebody suggested throwing a conference with all of J. Cal's haters?
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I think somebody could launch a successful summit just doing that. It's like a ready-made audience. And they're clearly passionate.
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I think it would rival the All-In Summit in terms of the passion of the fans.
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Are you kidding me?
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Freeberg. I'd have to keynote. Paul Graham.
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J-Cal was just so... I was brutal to Zuck in the early days. Brutal, yeah.
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But you're right. Like, you know, throwing a conference for J-haters would just be... J-haters? That's like a ready-made... J-haters. Jaders. That is an underserved and passionate demographic. It would be bigger than 10.
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Well, It is ironic that frequently the government takes actions on these monopolies at precisely the moment they're subject to the greatest disruption. Totally. The same thing happened with Microsoft in a way. But it was still a good thing that the government acted when it did because there was a risk of Microsoft porting over its desktop monopoly into this new era of the internet.
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I think it's still a good thing to be looking at breaking up Google. I actually think that would be good. At the end of the day, it might even be good for shareholders. This thing should be probably three separate companies like we've talked about in our previous show. But it is true that Google is facing the most existential threat to its search monopoly.
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And it is a monopoly in the form of open AI at this point in time.
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Well, in terms of the political environment for M&A next year?
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Yeah. I mean, so obviously it depends which administration's in power. A lot of Democrats, prominent Democrats in tech like Mark Cuban or Reid Hoffman have been making the case that if Kamala is president, she's going to be much more hospitable and friendly towards M&A. And they've been saying explicitly that they want Lena Kahn fired.
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Well, in response to that, AOC just came out and said, we're going to have a throwdown if you do that. So I don't... Let's go. I would not expect a substantial difference or improvement in the regulatory... permissiveness towards M&A if we have a democratic administration. If you have Trump in office next year, I think that there will be an opening up of M&A.
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I think the Republicans have their own issues with big tech, but those issues tend to revolve around censorship and bias and search results and LLMs, things like that, as opposed to bigness per se. So I think it will be easier to get M&A done next year if you have a Republican administration.
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I'm not invited to that. People don't know that you're being facetious, Jason.
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They often don't. They often don't.
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I have not seen that.
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No.
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Wait, why am I there?
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I'm going to be a keynote? You're the MC. Okay, wow, I'm the MC.
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I don't remember that one.
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Robinhood. Yeah, I mean... Look, just to go back to the CRV thing, you said at the outset of the conversation that this was either a growth fund or an opportunities fund. That makes a really big difference. Explain, please. Because, well, an opportunities fund typically exists to back up your winners.
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In other words, if the venture fund is producing some big winners, the opportunities fund exists to deploy more capital into those companies. Right. as opposed to a growth fund, which is you'd be underwriting brand new companies from scratch. Typically, an opportunities fund is limited to companies that you're already an investor in through your venture fund. So that makes a big difference.
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I mean, if CRV has a billion-dollar venture fund and only a $500 million opportunities fund, it may just be the case that they don't need all of that capital to back up the winners. They can do their pro ratas out of the main fund. So I suspect that that might be what's going on. I actually think this is a pretty good time to have a growth fund. Why?
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Well, because a lot of the crossover capital has left the ecosystem a few years ago.
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Yeah, well, Tiger and SoftBank are still around, but there are other very large investors, hedge funds, and so on, who had come into the ecosystem with billions of dollars a few years ago, and now they've left. And some of those funds that you're talking about, like Tiger used to be $10 billion funds. Now they're $2 billion funds. Right.
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Interesting. But to your point about the size of the venture fund, the bigger the venture fund, the bigger the winner that you need to make that pay off, obviously.
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And so because of the power law, so to take an example, I don't know, let's say you've got a billion dollar venture fund. Let's say that at IPO, you own 10% of whatever that winner is. And because of the power law, your fund performance is really determined by your best outcome, right? Yep. So
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In order to take a $1 billion venture fund and say, deliver a 3X, so $3 billion of returns, and your best company you own 10% of, that implies you have a $30 billion winner in that fund. And there are precious few outcomes where you have a $30 billion IPO, right? Yeah. This doesn't happen very often.
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Yeah, you're going to need to have a meaningful ownership position and a massive company in order to make a fund that big payoff. The data that I think LPs look at shows that smaller venture funds tend to perform better for this reason, $500, $600 million funds.
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So yeah, I personally wouldn't want the pressure of a billion-dollar venture fund. That would be really hard. As a $500 or $600 billion venture fund, you kind of need to have or want to have like a decacorn outcome to make that a great fund. But to have to have a $30 billion plus outcome, it's even more difficult.
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Well, I thought there was other data in the study that should calm people's fears that TikTok would somehow be used as a political weapon. So in the same survey, you're talking about 95% of adults that use TikTok say they use it because it's entertaining. So that's the main reason people use it. And only 10% of accounts followed by US adults post content related to political or social issues.
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Yeah, but so basically 90% of the accounts that get followed aren't even posting political or social issues. They're there for entertainment as people watching dance videos, as people watching. I mean, the main thing I use it for is to watch Wrestling highlights. You're a wrestling guy? Yeah, I'm a wrestling fan. What? Yeah. You're into this kabuki theater of wrestling?
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I'm over 20. I get my WWE on TikTok. You do? Yeah.
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The crazy thing is I know all those names.
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Oh, those are so great. That was the era of Hulk Hogan, for sure. Saturday night's main event.
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Oh, Savage, yeah. Savage is great. Yeah, I mean, look, my all-time favorite was Stone Cold Steve Austin. Stone Cold is great. I marked out the hardest for Austin.
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Totally.
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They're moments. When Hogan turned heel and joined the, was it the NWO? That was like a big moment.
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Oh, yeah. Andy Kaufman. Yeah. Well, that was like in the 1970s, wasn't it?
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That was where I grew up in my hometown of Memphis.
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No, it was a huge deal where I grew up because this was on the local news. Yes. When I grew up in Memphis, there was no professional sports teams, OK? All we had was the Memphis State basketball and wrestling every Monday night at the Mid-South Coliseum. That was it. That was professional sports.
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Lawler was so popular that he could have been elected mayor. In fact, I think there was talk at one point of him becoming mayor. Wow.
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jimmy hart oh yeah yeah he was amazing he was like the main heel manager for a while yeah okay this is before the wwe took over i guess it was called wwf back then but there were all these little fiefdoms and kingdoms and mid-south wrestling was like one of those kingdoms and lawler was like the king of it and then you had all these guys come in and out and wrestle friedberg you ever watch wrestling and what do you think of this tick tock survey
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My point was that it's mostly an entertainment app where people go to watch dance videos, wrestling clips, style influencers, and so on. And I think that this idea that it's somehow a propaganda tool around, you know, programming our youth. I think that's a moral panic that's been exaggerated and,
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I bet more than 50% of young people are getting their news from podcasts. And those podcasts get chopped up and clipped. And then people watch them on TikTok. Yeah, for sure. I bet that's how it's happening.
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Sorry, I just don't understand. It's emissions. Sulfur dioxide.
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If the Russians were actually doing it, it's the stupidest use of $10 million ever. Of course. Those podcasters already had their own channels. They're already putting out lots of content. And this other content is a drop in the bucket. I think, Jamath, the issue with what you're saying is just there is so much content out there already. People create it for free.
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People create it because they have a career in it. There's a whole long tail of influencers. There is so much content out there already through podcasts, through websites. It's all being chopped up that trying to do it as some sort of
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disinformation strategy, I think is very hard to do because it's just when there's billions and billions of impressions, any effort that you try to engineer ends up just being a drop in the bucket. I agree. Yeah, it's definitely a drop in the bucket. It makes sense in theory, but it makes sense in theory. It's very hard to do in practice.
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The mainstream media lies so much, that's what's creating the distrust.
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Okay, let's give- How is $10 million going to accomplish anything if that story is even true? It makes no sense.
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It looks like a conspiracy theory.
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I think it's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. They took podcasters who were already successful and paid them to release content through a less watched channel. That's the.
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And then they in these guys are allegedly these guys are already live streaming like 24 seven.
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Well, I think your recitation of the polls there kind of mixes up a couple of things. There's popular vote polls, and then there's electoral college, which goes state by state. If you look at pretty much now all the main pollsters, you look at Tony Fabrizio, you look at RealClearPolitics, they're now showing
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that trump is winning the electoral college right now he is up in almost every swing state including i think michigan which is pretty surprising clearly there's been a huge swing towards trump over the last week or two and look there's still 25 days to go so anything can happen i don't want to overstate this but yeah this is a good example right here showing that i think the electoral college is is 296 to 242 what is fabricio
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He's just a Republican pollster, but his accuracy is pretty high.
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Well, another guy who I think is more neutral is Mark Halperin, who is a pundit who has been very accurate this election cycle. Remember, he's the one who broke the scoop that Biden would be replaced by Harris. And he even said exactly when it would happen. And he predicted it down to the day. He was exactly right about that. And if you follow his account, he is now saying that both
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Republican and Democrat insiders that he talks to are both saying the same thing, which is their internals are now showing Trump ahead in every swing state or almost every swing state. And things seem to be breaking Trump's way right now. Again, there's 25 days left.
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But if you're wondering why is Harris all of a sudden doing interviews, it's because their internals started showing that she was in trouble. So they decided to get her out more.
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Well, yeah, exactly. Which one is it, do you think?
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No, I think it's what I predicted a couple of months ago. It's the doom loop. So what I said two months ago is that if Harris gets behind, she's going to have to abandon this sort of basement strategy of not doing interviews. She's going to have to start doing interviews. The problem is she's not good at interviews. And if she does more interviews, she's going to fall further behind in the polls.
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And it could cause a doom loop. So that's where we appear to be right now. I said that on August 30th.
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Oh, boy.
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Let me just follow up on a point Shamath made. Shamath said that she had to be crisp. If you look at any of these interviews, they're the opposite of crisp. She's asked softball questions by like Stephen Colbert saying, why are you running for president? How are you different than Joe Biden? And she doesn't have good answers. She starts free associating.
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She gives these very long-winded answers that don't go anywhere. She says she can't think of a single way she's different than Joe Biden when pushed on that. It's very strange.
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Why would she do an adversarial interview?
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Yeah. This whole idea that I didn't treat Cuban respectfully is nonsense. Just watch the tape. I don't even keep all that. I know. Somebody asserted that.
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Right, so the pollution was good? Turns out it was good.
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Good job, Jacob. Thank you, my friend. Yeah, now we have allin.com slash tequila.
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Wait, so you're saying that it wasn't Democrats who basically...
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I thought Nancy Pelosi cast a spell or something.
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But Vinod wants us to be very clear that we need to stop all this disinformation that somehow Democrats are behind that storm. We can assure everyone that it was just precipitation.
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People aren't taking that seriously.
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Allin.com. Allin.com. That's our website. It's like this thing is real.
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The thing in that world where if you had this like Jarvis-like thing that can reason, what do you think it does to products that you use today where the interface is very valuable?
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So for example, if you look at an Instacart or if you look at an Uber or if you look at a DoorDash, these are not services that are meant to be pipes that are just providing a set of APIs to a smart set of agents that ubiquitously work on behalf of 8 billion people.
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What do you think has to change in how we think about how apps need to work, of how this entire infrastructure of experiences need to work in a world where you're agentically interfacing to the world?
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To your point, the quality is not good. But when the quality is good enough, you'll actually prefer it just because it's just lighter weight. You don't have to take your phone out. You don't have to search for your app and press it. Oh, it automatically logged you out. Oh, hold on, log back in. Oh, TFA. It's a whole pain in the ass.
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Of all the developers that are building apps and experiences on OpenAI, are there a few that stand out for you where you're like, okay, this is directionally going in a super interesting area, even if it's like a toy app. But are there things that you guys point to and say, this is really important?
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But let's walk through the protein modeling example.
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You should write a book, Jacob. Maybe.
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So I think this section I would label as AI and the law. So let me ask maybe a higher level question. What does it mean when people say regulate AI? Totally. Sam, what does that even mean?
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Just to build on that, Sam, the architectural decision, for example, that Lama took is pretty interesting in that it's like, we're going to let Lama grow and be as unfettered as possible. And we have this other kind of thing that we call Lama guard that's meant to be these protective guardrails. Is that how you see the problem being solved correctly?
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Right. I would like to shift to the gossip part of this.
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Gossip? What gossip? Sam, let's go back to November. What the flying f*** happened?
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I think maybe the two big vectors, Sam, that people always talk about is that underlying cost and sort of the latency that's kind of rate-limited a killer app, and then I think the second is sort of the long-term ability for people to build in an open source world versus a closed source world. And I think the crazy thing about this space is that the open source community is rabid.
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What was that guy's name? He was there for like a Scaramucci, right? Emmett's great.
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So one example that I think is incredible is, you know, we had these guys do a pretty crazy demo for Devon, remember, like even like five or six weeks ago that looked incredible. And then some kid just published it under an open MIT license, like OpenDevon. And it's incredibly good and almost as good as that other thing that was closed source.
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Can I ask a different question? You have created, I mean... It's the hottest company. And you are literally at the center of the center of the center. But then it's so unique in the sense that all of this value you eschewed economically. Can you just walk us through why?
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Yeah, give you five points. What was the decision back then? Why was that so important?
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But in this weird way, now that you're running a company, yeah, it creates these weird questions of like, well, what's your real motivation?
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I think people think it's a little bit of an ulterior motive.
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So maybe we can just start with that, which is tell me about the business decision to keep these models closed source. And where do you see things going in the next couple of years?
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What's your preferred model of organizing open AI? Is it... sort of like the move fast, break things, highly distributed small teams, or is it more of this organized effort where you need to plan because you want to prevent some of these edge cases?
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Come back to the game. Yeah, come back to the game.
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Sam has a great style of playing, which I would call Ram and Jam. Totally. You got to just get out of the way.
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We'll see you next time.
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But you do two boards. And congrats.
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I think that these guys are going to be one of the four major companies that matter in this whole space. I think that that's clear. I think what's still unclear is where is the economics going to be?
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He said something very discreet, but I thought was important, which is, I think he basically, my interpretation is these models will roughly all be the same, but there's going to be a lot of scaffolding around these models that actually allow you to build these apps. So in many ways, that is like the open source movement. So even if the model itself is never open source.
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It doesn't much matter because you have to pay for the infrastructure, right? There's a lot of open source software that runs on Amazon. You still pay AWS something. So I think the right way to think about this now is the models will basically be all really good. And then it's all this other stuff that you'll have to pay for. The interface. Whoever builds all this other stuff
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is going to be in a position to build a really good business.
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My other takeaway, I think, is that the, I think what he also seemed to indicate is there's like so many, like we're all so enraptured by LLMs, but there's so many things other than LLMs that are being baked and rolled by him and by other groups.
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And I think we have to pay some amount of attention to all those because that's probably where, and I think Freeberg, you tried to go there in your question, that's where reasoning will really come from is this mixture of experts approach. And so you're gonna have to think multi-dimensionally to reason, right? We do that, right? Do I cross the street or not in this point in time?
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You reason based on all these multi-inputs. And so there's all these little systems that go into making that decision in your brain. And if you use that as a simple example, there's all this stuff that has to go into making some experience being able to reason intelligently.
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This is going to be catnip for all these protest organizers.
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Honestly, I will just say, I think you are doing a marvelous job. That... I was shocked at the design. Shocked meaning it is so unique and high quality. I think it's amazing. It would make me drink tequila.
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I mean, why not? I mean, it's great when we get barricaded in by all these protesters, we can drink the tequila. Did you guys see Peter Thiel? Peter Thiel got barricaded by these ding-dongs at Cambridge? My God.
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This was not on my bingo card. This pro-protester support by Sachs was not on the bingo card, I got to say.
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By the way, some of these camps are some of the funniest things you've ever seen. It's like there are like one tent that's dedicated to like a reading room and you go in there and there's like these like... Mindfulness center? Oh my God, it's unbelievably hilarious.
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Did you guys see the clip? I think it was on the University of Washington campus where one kid challenged this Antifa guy to a push-up contest. Oh, fantastic. I mean, it is some of the funniest stuff. Some content is coming out that's just hilarious.
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It made you sad? It actually elicited an emotion? Meaning like commercials? It's very rare that commercials can actually do that. Most people just zone out. Yeah, they took all this beautiful stuff and heard it.
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Yeah. I think this is... You guys see that in the Berkshire annual meeting last weekend, Tim Cook was in the audience and Buffett... was very laudatory. This is an incredible company. But he's so clever with words. He's like, you know, this is an incredible business that we will hold forever, most likely. And then it turns out that he sold $20 billion worth of Apple shares in the quarter.
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A caveat. Which, by the way, if you guys remember, we put that little chart up, which shows when he doesn't mention it in the annual letter, it's basically like it's foreshadowing the fact that he is just pounding the sell. And he sold $20 billion.
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I mean, it's an incredible business that has so much money with nothing to do. They're probably just going to buy back the stock. Just a total waste.
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I think the problem is, J. Cal, like, you kind of become afraid of your own shadow. Meaning, the folks that are really good at M&A, like, you look at Benioff. The thing with Benioff's M&A strategy is that he's been doing it for 20 years.
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And so he's cut his teeth on small acquisitions and the market learns to give him trust so that when he proposes like the $27 billion Slack acquisition, he's allowed to do that. Another guy, you know, Nikesh Arora at Pan W. These last five years, people were very skeptical that he could actually roll up security because it was a super fragmented market. He's gotten permission.
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Then there are companies like Danaher that buy hundreds of companies. So all of these folks are examples of you start small and you earn the right to do more. Apple hasn't bought anything more than $50 or $100 million. And so the idea that all of a sudden they come out of the blue and buy a $10, $20 billion company, I think is just totally doesn't stand logic.
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It's just not possible for them because they'll be so afraid of their own shadow. That's the big problem. It's themselves.
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Plus, why are they body-shaming the fat iPads?
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That was a great scene.
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They killed it. I think a lot of people would be very open-minded to an Apple car. They just would. It's a connected internet device, increasingly so. And they managed to flub it. They had a chance to buy Tesla. They managed to flub it. There are just too many examples here where these guys have so much money and not enough ideas. That's a shame.
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What about a gaming console? They could have done that, you know? There's just all these things that they could have done. It's not a lack of imagination because these aren't exactly incredibly world-beating ideas. They're sitting right in front of your face. It's just the will to do it.
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I think the reason why the car could have been completely re-imagined by Apple is that they have a level of credibility and trust that I think probably no other company has, and absolutely no other tech company has. And we talked about this, but I think this was the third Steve Jobs story that I left out. But in 2000, and I don't know, was it one? I launched a 99 cent download store.
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I think I've told you this story in Winamp. And Steve Jobs just ran total circles around us. But the reason he was able to is he had all the credibility to go to the labels and get deals done for licensing music that nobody could get done before. I think that's an example of what Apple's able to do, which is to use their political capital to change the rules.
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So if the thing that we would all want is safer roads and autonomous vehicles, there are regions in every town and city that could be completely converted to level five autonomous zones. If I had to pick one company that had the credibility to go and change those rules, it's them. because they could demonstrate that there was a methodical safe approach to doing something.
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And so the point is that even in these categories that could be totally reimagined, it's not for a lack of imagination. Again, it just goes back to a complete lack of will. And I understand because if they had, if you had $200 billion of capital on your balance sheet, I think it's probably pretty easy to get fat and lazy.
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On the blog post, they have this incredible video that they show of the coronavirus that creates a common cold, I think the 7-PNM protein. And not only did they literally predict it accurately, they also predicted how it interacts with an antibody, with a sugar. It's nuts.
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So you could see a world where like, I don't know, you just get a vaccine for the cold and it's kind of like you never have colds again.
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And your preference of nut milk.
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Can we have some soy-like to them, please?
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Can I just replay something and just make sure I heard it right? I think what you were saying on the open source, closed source thing is, if I heard it right, all these models, independent of the business decision you make, are going to become asymptotically accurate towards some amount of accuracy. Not all, but let's just say there's four or five that are
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well-capitalized enough, you guys, Meta, Google, Microsoft, whomever, right? So let's just say four or five, maybe one startup. And on the open web. And then quickly... the accuracy or the value of these models will probably shift to these proprietary sources of training data that you could get that others can't or others can get that you can't.
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Is that how you see this thing evolving, where the open web gets everybody to a certain threshold and then it's just an arms race for data beyond that?
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Let's go back to that first section of just the cost and the speed. all of you guys are sort of a little bit rate limited on literally Nvidia's throughput, right? And I think that you and most everybody else have sort of effectively announced how much capacity you can get just because it's as much as they can spin out.
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What needs to happen at the substrate so that you can actually compute cheaper, compute faster, get access to more energy? How are you helping to frame out the industry solving those problems?
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What about the device side? And sort of, you mentioned sort of the models that can fit on a phone. So obviously, whether that's an LLM or some SLM or something, I'm sure you're thinking about that. But then does the device itself change? I mean, does it need to be as expensive as an iPhone?
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Is it that that it has to be more complicated or actually just much, much cheaper and simpler?
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Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
So I think Freeberger is right that the reason why the Japanese central bank tried to raise rates, I mean, just by a tiny amount, was because they are dealing with inflation. If you look at that inflation chart and you go back to when their inflation was zero, roughly in 2020, the exchange rate ratio between the US dollar and the yen was about 100 to 1, meaning one US dollar could buy 100 yen.
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Now it's at roughly 150 yen to the dollar. So their currency has massively depreciated over the last several years. And a big part of the reason why is because, again, they're central bank is offering roughly zero, and you can earn 5% in UST bills.
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So people are basically moving their money to countries that pay a lot more on their bonds, and they're even borrowing yen, like we talked about, selling the yen to then buy Australian dollars or US dollars to invest the money there. So there's huge downward pressure on the value of the yen. And the way this creates inflation is that
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Japan is obviously an island that has very few natural resources, and it has to import all of its oil. So it has an advanced economy, but it needs to import a lot of resources. And so as its currency depreciates, the price of all those commodities goes up. And this is why you're seeing inflation in Japan.
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Now, when the central bank tried to solve this, it created huge jitters in the financial market because it was starting to unwind the whole yen carry trade, which is something like $20 trillion. And so the Bank of Japan backed off. And you heard the Japanese central banker said, we can't raise rates while it would create instability in the global markets. We have to wait until it's stable.
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But the problem is that raising the rates and unwinding the yen carry trade creates the instability. So what they're saying is we're never going to be able to raise rates. And the result of this is going to be more inflation in Japan. Their currency is going to continue to depreciate. They've been unable to defend it.
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And so what I would expect is that the US dollar is going to keep buying more yen. It's going to go from, I don't know, 147, 150 to some bigger number.
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And who's going to pay the price here is the Japanese consumer, because everything's going to cost a lot more.
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It'll be good for tourism because, yeah, you'll be able to travel to Japan much more cheaply. But if you're actually Japanese and you live in that country, you're going to see your purchasing power continue to erode. So I would expect big domestic problems in Japan, and eventually they may conclude that this system does not benefit them. Now, who does it benefit?
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You could argue that it benefits the United States because it has subsidized the purchase of our debt, right? Because again, so you have this yen carry trade of 20 trillion, and a lot of that has gone into U.S. bonds or U.S. T-bills, right? And so it basically is a huge subsidy to the U.S. Treasury's need to continuously issue more and more debt. We're issuing, what, a trillion dollars of
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net new debt every 100 days. So having the Japanese consumer subsidize all of this by taking it on the chin, you know, in terms of inflation in order to provide this yen carry trade, you could argue has been very beneficial to the U.S. Treasury.
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Well, I don't know. I mean, I tend to agree with Freeberg here that when you have massive amounts of debt, it definitely limits your flexibility.
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One of the reasons why Japan can't raise rates is because the their debt will become even more expensive, right? I mean, Freeburg isn't that part of the problem?
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Okay, so to analogize this to the US, our debt service costs are, what are they at now? Like well over a trillion.
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Just one other point is, I think it shows... the fragility of the global financial system. I mean, the market snapped back. As soon as the Bank of Japan backed off, basically capitulated, said, okay, fine, we can't defend our currency. We're just gonna let it keep depreciating. We're gonna let inflation keep raging.
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As soon as they declared that, then the market snapped back, but it just showed in that 24 hours, Putting aside all the panic porn that was on social media, because I think that was overdone, it still showed how fragile the global economy is. The yen carry trade has injected roughly $20 trillion of liquidity into the global economy, and that is propping up all sorts of things, right?
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And that is subsidizing U.S. government debt. And you just wonder if... the yen carry trade were to end, because let's say, for example, the Japanese people don't want to experience hyperinflation, then what would that do to the global economy? It just showed how rickety the whole system is.
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In fact, now's an even better time to put that trade on because the Bank of Japan's basically just capitulated and said that they can't raise interest rates while things are so unstable. So we know they're just going to keep rates where they are. So if I was one of these traders, I'd just put the trade back on now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Look at that form. I like that guy.
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I don't think they have that plan specifically because I just think that you would need a supermajority in Congress to do something like that. And I just think that this election is going to be too close regardless of who wins to provide that kind of mandate. I mean, sadly, I think we do need to get government spending under control. But I think it's a long-term political problem.
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Hard to beat them at virtue signaling.
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And I just think our political system doesn't have the will. to fix it. I do believe Republicans would be better than Democrats on that, but I think that's the truth of it. To go back to your first question on the state of the economy, I had lunch with a very prominent investor yesterday who's very plugged in with the hedge fund community. And he said that the sentiment shift
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'd say, again, within hedge funds, professional investors, public market investors, it had been very sudden that people were now very worried about the risk of a recession. And I do think that the Airbnb revenue that Chamath cited is a big factor. Airbnb stock went down 15% in one day on soft demand. And what's driving all of this is consumer weakness, or at least fear of consumer weakness.
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You mentioned the rise in unemployment. It went from 4.1% to 4.3% month over month. So 4.3% is still a pretty low number by historical terms, but to jump so much in one month, that's a pretty big increase. And then, of course, it's up from 3.5% a year ago. So we're seeing pretty big increases in unemployment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. So these are big changes. There's real evidence of consumer weakness. And I think professional investors are getting quite worried about the risk of a recession. And I guess this one last point on this is that If you were to remove the impact of government spending, it's pretty clear the private sector is in a recession.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, like we've been talking about, government's been going hog wild with spending. The government is running 6% of GDP deficits. The latest Q2 growth number was something like 2%. So if you force government to live within its means and to cut its way back to balance, we would definitely be in a recession. We'd have a negative growth rate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I do think that the economy is looking pretty shaky all of a sudden. Whether we actually tip over into recession in the next few months, I'm not sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The reason why the markets could rally in the midst of a recession is because interest rates get cut. We've already seen that the expectations of rate cuts have now grown substantially. The markets are starting to price in 100 to 150 basis points of rate cuts this year, where before it was more like 25 to 50 basis points. So obviously, lower interest rates make stocks go up.
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So I think that's the main driver of the rally you're seeing right now, J. Cal, not the prospects for increased efficiency, because I think those prospects were already there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I've been predicting recession for like three years now because I just think when you jack up interest rates so suddenly, so violently, you get recession. So I guess if you pin me down, I'd say recession. And I'll tell you one of the reasons why- Interestingly, I've just checked the notes, Sachs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I know, I know. Look, it's the same recession that I've been predicting. It's very simple. When you jack up interest rates from near zero to five and a half percent, that makes everything much more expensive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, people have been saying it. I think you just did. If you look at job creation over the last four years, there's been no net new job creation for native-born Americans. All the job creation has been foreign-born or... Because native-born Americans have too high of a wage expectation.
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I agree. I don't think it's too high.
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I think it'd be a lot better to let their wages rise. But in any event, let's not get political on it. Just to the point, about recession, Jason. I mean, yeah, look, I've been predicting the same recession, but I think one of the reasons why it might finally come now, first of all, you've got a lot of investors are suddenly worried about it. There's been a big sentiment shift.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think the other thing is I don't think we know all the bad news yet.
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Well, none of us were tracking the yen carry trade. I mean, it was something we may have heard of, but it's not like we were actively thinking about it until this past week. And the question is, how many more things are out there like that? And I also think that the pattern with this administration has been to hide the ball. They hid by insinuity for years. Not to get political, though.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Not to get political. Biden, Biden, Biden.
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It's not political.
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I'm making an economic point here, actually. And you guys can decide if I'm just being partisan or whether I have a good point here, which is, look, I think the MO of this administration has been to hide the ball. And any good news they would have reported. Do you think that they're reporting all the bad news? I don't.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think there's more bad news that's going to come out after the election because there's too many incentives for people to hide it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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When you said that the yen carry trade didn't have a big impact, that's because the Bank of Japan backed off. So if they kept going with it, we don't know what the impact would have been.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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When we had this global sell-off on Sunday, Monday, a lot of people were sharing this chart online and pointing out that Buffett was sitting on this gigantic cash pile, by far the biggest cash pile that he's ever sat on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We then had a market recovery, so people aren't really talking about this, but it does stand to reason that Buffett is building up a war chest here, and he's somewhat defensively positioned. You can see that, you know, was it like 20, 21, 22 years? the cash pile went down because he started making a bunch of investments. Now the cash pile is really high.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So it seems logical to infer that he thinks that the risk reward right now is not great on public equities. And again, he's just a little bit more risk off.
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I hope I don't get you guys- The CDC says we can treat COVID like the flu now. I mean- You see that? They finally admitted after two years of shutting down schools, the economy, everything. Like, oh, it's just the flu. We can treat it like the flu.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, but a safer way to do this is just to invest in a US T-bill that's paying 5%. You don't have to take the risk of the market going down. You borrow yen at 0%, invest in T-bills at 5%, and you pocket the difference.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I think this is a good decision. I mean, Google clearly is a monopoly. In fact, it's at least two or three monopolies. They have monopoly in search, they have monopoly in advertising, and they at least have a dominant position in video with YouTube. And I think that it would be great if the government broke up this company. I mean, it should be it should be at least three or four companies.
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I mean, there should be search should be its own company. Advertising should be its own company. YouTube should be spun out. And then I don't know if G Suite should be a separate company or should get lumped in with search. I don't know. But I think this should be at least three or four companies. And I think Republicans will be on board with that because, frankly, Google is a threat to democracy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you go to Google and search for search results of anything related to the election, it is clearly so biased. Explain that. Yeah. Give an example. If you want to get the latest info on Kamala Harris, just search for Donald Trump. I mean, compare the search results. And I've done this and I've posted the results online.
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If you search for Trump, you'll get a bunch of negative articles on Trump and you'll get positive articles about Harris. And then conversely, if you search for Kamala Harris, you'll get positive articles about her. And it's like Trump doesn't exist. It's clearly they have put their thumb on the scale here in favor of the candidate they prefer, as 90 something percent of their donations indicate.
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What's your take?
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well okay that's their explanation yeah okay fine but the problem is yeah yeah they're waiting the publications they want to wait. Why is Daily Beast like some authority on the election? They're the most partisan, ridiculous, untrustworthy publication when it comes to the election. So why should they be top four? I mean, why isn't Fox News in there? Why isn't New York Post in there?
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Why isn't Substack in there? There's a lot of great publications on Substack. So they are very selectively choosing the publications who, you're right, are in the tank for the Democrats. So they are reflecting the bias of the mainstream media, but they are being very selective about what media they show. And even so- Here's Kamala Harris.
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I want you to put on the screen this. Yeah, go ahead. You can do it. I tweeted some receipts. Please click on the screenshot so I can show you the side by side. and you'll see what I'm talking about. Okay, I search for Donald Trump. What do I get? News about Harris. This is on my phone, so this is mobile. The articles are all basically about Harris criticizing Trump.
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Okay, then the second carousel is about the Project 2025 director stepping down, which is pretty tangential to Trump, but is a major Democratic line of attack on Trump. So this whole thing seems rigged, to support the DNC point of view on Trump. Same thing. You search Donald Trump latest news. Same thing. There's some weird story about Donald Trump's nephew.
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I didn't even know about this person, but somehow they're elevating it to be a major story. And again, the first carousel is all about Harris. Now, keep going, please.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay. Now we look at Kamala Harris. Top stories. Just Harris. No news about Trump. Got it. Next one. Same thing, okay? So the point is that when you search for Trump, you get news about Harris and criticism of Trump. When you search for Harris, you get positive news about Harris. There's no way you can tell me that this is fair or this is a result of an algorithm that hasn't been tampered with.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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This is very clearly programmed. I mean, you get different carousels depending on which candidate you search for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. Yeah. Of course, I understand that the mainstream media is hopelessly biased. Please remember you said that when we discuss it. No, no, no. Hopelessly outnumbered. Some other time instead of saying it's conspiracy theory.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The mainstream media is biased. We all know that. You can defend it however you want to defend it. Nobody's defending it. Okay, fine, so we agree on that. I don't know why you're making these- I agree with you five times on it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay, my point about Google is they're reinforcing the bias because they uprank the mainstream media sources and they downrank the sources that provide a dissident opinion or an alternative opinion. Again, why is Vanity Fair upranked above the New York Post? Is that because of their journalistic quality? I don't think so.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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One way to think about this- Hold on, why is it that the Kamala Harris search result does not say anything about Trump, but the Trump search result has a carousel on Kamala Harris. That looks programmed to me. Do you want an answer? Yeah, that looks programmed to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Before we leave this topic, can I just show this chart? Okay, look, this is a chart showing- We've seen the chart, we know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay, well, people in the audience may not know, okay? Okay. Employee donations to party are, again, it's well over 90% of Democrats. This basically represents the- constituency of Silicon Valley, okay, inside these companies. We also know that Google search results use more and more manual interventions. Freeberg, you agree with that, right?
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Okay. So all the people doing this stuff are Democrats. They're liberal. And you're telling me that this does not have an influence, it does not create bias. Come on. You can see the bias in a common sense search for Trump versus Harris.
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I think it would be like 70% or 80% if it weren't for the bias of the mainstream media being boosted by big tech.
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Maybe not quite that percentage. But if you look at issues, polling on issues, The Republican position on most issues is like a 60 to 70% winner. And yet the elections are a nail biter. And I think a lot of it has to do with the influence of the mainstream media and big tech.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm not inflamed. I have a point of view that I think is informed by facts and evidence. The fact of the matter is the vast, vast majority, well over 90% of the employees at Google are liberal Democrats. And the Google search does rely on manual actions and the people performing those actions are, again, overwhelmingly from one side of the political aisle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Furthermore, we can see in the search results that they do appear to be hopelessly biased in favor of one candidate at the expense of another. I mean, you're asking me to deny the evidence in my own eyes and ears. I can see what's happening. I think most people can see what's happening. I do not think that Google should be putting its thumb on the scale on one side of the election here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And Jason, you may have a point that it's reflecting the bias of the mainstream media. I don't think that makes it okay. I think that Google should have to work a little harder to be neutral. And they could do that easily by balancing their news sources.
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Well, I was very happy with it. I was very happy with the pick. I mean, so first of all, I think I said last week or two weeks ago that I thought the pick would be Shapiro, Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania. It was such an obvious choice for Harris because this whole election could easily come down to 10,000 votes in Pennsylvania. It is the tipping point state.
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And Harris probably has to win that state in order to win the election. And you have a very popular governor of that state. He's got something like 63% popularity in that state. He's also perceived as a moderate. So he would have helped Harris position the ticket more towards the center, which apparently is her goal since she's repudiated all of her far left positions.
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So it just seemed to be so perfect. And then what happened is there was a smear campaign by the progressive left against Shapiro. He was the only one of the VP shortlist candidates that seemed to get all this oppo dumped on him before the pick. And that campaign against Shapiro seems to have spooked Harris, who seems to be fairly risk averse.
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And she went with this guy, Tim Waltz from Minnesota, who is a darling of the radical left. And I think that he's already presented many opportunities for attack by the right. There's three big issues that I think Waltz is going to have to address because Republicans are already landing blows on him. Number one, stolen valor.
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He has clearly, and on several occasions, overstayed the extent of his military record. Look, obviously, I've never served, but I know that among people who have, this is a very big deal. Big issue. Big issue. Campaigns have imploded over this. So that's number one. He's got the stolen ballot problem. Number two, on trans, he seems to have bought into every aspect of the trans agenda.
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And he's made Minnesota a sanctuary state for minors who want to come there for puberty blockers and sex reassignment surgeries. even without parental consent. The law that Gavin Newsom just passed or signed that drove Elon out of the state, Tim Walz got there first in Minnesota. So he is not a centrist. He is very far on the cultural left.
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And then I'd say like a third issue that I don't even know if people have really gotten to yet, but I think it will eventually come up, is that Waltz was insanely authoritarian on COVID.
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I mean, this is a guy who told us that Minnesotans live by a motto of mind your own damn business, but he set up a COVID stitch hotline so people could rat out their neighbors for leaving the house or having dinner parties or walking their dog without a mask. And it was it was real. I mean, violators could be punished by 90 days in jail.
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So, again, this guy has been to the left of Gavin Newsom on cultural issues. And I think that's going to be a big problem for the Harris campaign. And I don't really understand why she went with him when there was such an obvious alternative who was available, who could have given her a swing state, who could have positioned her as a moderate. What are your thoughts?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Let me say something about this issue, frankly, in defense of Kamala Harris. I don't think she's anti-Semitic, and I don't think that accusation should ever be made without real evidence, okay? That being said, Van Jones, who is in a position to know, because he's an important political pundit in the Democrat Party, said that one of the reasons why Shapiro was passed over is because of this issue.
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And he said that anti-Semitism had become marbled into the Democrat Party. I don't know exactly what he meant by that.
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Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. So I don't think Harris is. I think she's just risk averse and didn't want to alienate certain factions within the Democrat party. I agree with that statement. Right. But in the process of being risk averse, she chose this guy, Waltz, who I think has got much bigger vulnerabilities than Shapiro does. And I think the question now is whether Waltz is even going to make it to the convention.
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I think he might have to drop out.
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Yeah, let me make a couple of points there. So number one is Trump had a lot more time to vet and get comfortable with his VP candidate because he's been the presumptive nominee for many months, whereas Harris inherited the nomineeship without a primary battle, right? Biden just abdicated less than three weeks ago.
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So that's the reason why she didn't really have time to go through a courtship process for her VP. Now, as to the vetting process, I agree with you. I think it's somewhat inexplicable because these stolen valor claims have been out there for a long time.
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When Waltz ran for governor, there were former soldiers who came forward and said, yeah, he was supposed to be the commander of our National Guard unit. He was supposed to go with us. And he quit right before we got deployed to Iraq. And so these complaints have been out there for a while.
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Moreover, he has many public statements saying that he was deployed to Operation Enduring Freedom, which I think was Afghanistan, and he simply wasn't. I mean, at least that's what I understand to be the case. So...
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Is that... He never saw combat. And he said that he carried a weapon in combat, in war. So this isn't like... a use of soppy language once or twice. This has been around, circling him for many years now, and there's been many examples of him saying these things on video. Let me ask a question here. So my point is just this. Can I just say one thing? I think the vetting was very poor.
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I think the vetting was very poor.
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Look, in my view, this was an easy choice. Even if she didn't like Shapiro, she could have gone with Bashir or she could have gone with Mark Kelly. Remember, the astronaut Mark Kelly was one of the top two contenders. At least that was what was reported. In other words, she could have gone with a moderate from a swing state.
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Okay, so why not Mark Kelly?
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Okay. He's on the ball. I'm not saying it has to be Shapiro, but the remit here was really clear to strategically. You want to choose a moderate from a swing state. That's it. Because this whole election can come down to one state and you want to basically portray yourself as a moderate. So this is a very easy assignment. Find me a moderate from a swing state. And what do they do?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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They choose a radical from a safe state, safe for Democrats. They got Minnesota locked up. Why do they need to take on this baggage? There's no reason for it. And Chamath, I do think they rushed the vetting, but I think it wasn't because of passion or something like that. I think they're running out of time because remember, Biden was supposed to be the nominee.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Harris was supposed to be on the ticket as VP. They weren't supposed to do this process. And then all of a sudden it happened three weeks ago because Biden abdicated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Totally. And let me tell you, if Walz doesn't drop from the ticket, I predict there'll be gold star families protesting all of their events. And that's going to be a real headache from now till the election.
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Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
It's pretty clear that he, at a minimum, exaggerated his service and he exaggerated his rank.
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Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Listen, whenever I meet a vet, I always thank them for their service. But those vets will tell you, you can never exaggerate what you did.
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Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
You can't say you were in war when you were not in war.
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Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Anybody home, McFly? Anybody home? Any home?
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Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
I mean, it is crazy. I want to thank Phil for the shout out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Well, let's just go around the horn. Who voted for Trump? Let's all raise their hands for those who voted for Trump. Ready? One, two, three, go. I voted twice. I voted twice. Me too. For me, it was so easy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I've been saying this since I'm blue in the face, but I'll try it again. I think that the mainstream media has been working hand in hand with the Democratic Party to propagate and move forward an agenda that tried to vilify Donald Trump. I did not know that when I initially encountered him in 2015 as a candidate.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But what you're supposed to do as an adult is once you start to see a pattern of behavior You know, this is for the safety, security of your family. This is about how you think about economically taking care of your family. Like you have to re-underwrite decisions from first principles. You must be prepared to change your mind when you see important information.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I have said this till I blew in the face, but I'll say it again. If I think of all of the people in the political infrastructure of America that I have met and spent time with, from Bill Clinton on, I remember sitting and having dinner with Barack Obama the day of Brexit and getting a note that he read and he said, oh my gosh, and says, wow, the UK just pulled out.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I was sitting across from him that dinner. I've been with all of these people. The Democrats only come to me to ask me for money. The only politician that has ever called me just to have a conversation, just to say thank you and be kind, the only one has been Donald Trump. Isn't that incredible? Of all of the people, every other person has only ever called and asked me for money.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So what does that mean? I think what it means is that there has been a concerted effort to perturb the way that you interpret who he is. Separately, there's been a concerted effort to prop up whoever is sitting against him in opposition.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I think this is an opportunity to finally acknowledge that if you trust these traditional legacy sources of helping you to get to a decision, you're going to get tricked. There's that old saying, you know, fool me once, shame on you. But fool me twice, shame on me. Because I am now allowing this to happen. And I think that for a lot of Americans, that is what happened.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think it is really as simple as that. I think they were able to see through the veneer of an attempt to malign and corner somebody. And on the other side, an attempt to basically play on vibes and feelings and emotions. And I don't think that America wants that. That is not what they want in running the country.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
They want somebody serious running the country where you can have disagreements with them and you can still find an opportunity to work together with those people. I think it's that.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
You totally told me to go f*** myself and wouldn't give me any help.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah, I think that this is a really important tweet because it sort of tells you, Sachs, who's going to be left in the room. And if these are the only people left in the room, the last thing they're going to do is admit defeat.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I completely agree with you, and I'll go even further, which is I think that the Democrats will lose one of California or New York in the next eight years.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
They're not going to attack. If you think that the intelligentsia, quote unquote, the Bill Gates, Reid Hoffmans of the world that funds Dustin Moskovitz, that funds the Democratic apparatus at the highest level, if they can't change... What are the odds that the state infrastructure or the local infrastructure changes?
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think maybe on the margins, the local infrastructure can change more quickly and adeptly because it just costs a lot less money and it's much more concentrated. But I think the states are very laggard in that sense. And I think that they take the table scraps of what's left over.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So if you have the Democrats lead, there is no chance that unless they change the planks of their platform, that the state legislatures in New York and California are going to change what they believe.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Because money cannot overcome common sense.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
This is what I mean by a return to normalcy. These are normal people problems. How much does it cost to put food on the table? How much does it cost to drive from point A to point B? I want to send my kid to a school where they go and they learn the ABCs and the one, two, threes because they're going to have to graduate and compete with India and China.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I don't want to worry about indoctrination and all this other stuff. Absolutely. Yeah.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
What technique is that? 15 million votes?
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think the policies of the Democratic Party are fundamentally broken. they've become the exact opposite of where they were even 20 years ago. So the Democrats used to be the protector of free speech. Now they are pro-censorship. The Republicans are free speech. The Democrats used to be all about anti-war.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Now they are more likely to get mangled into all of these foreign misadventures in partnership with the military-industrial complex, whereas the Republicans have been a bulwark to war.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Oh, my gosh. I mean, that was the scariest and oddest turn of events. So I think that what happened is the policies, they just lost their way. Now, the question is, was it purposeful or was it by accident? And I think that belies the bigger question, which is just the people in charge of the Democratic Party, I think, to Sachse's point,
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
do they even have a sense of that they have to change or are they just so now fundamentally out of touch and they just believe what they believe so ferociously, they're going to have to go through maybe three or four or five more elections of just getting totally trounced in order to learn the lesson.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Hold on, Freebrook, what do you think before you ask the next question?
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
There are so many very powerful examples of how the media colluded with the Democratic Party to fundamentally lie about things that actually happened when it relates to Donald Trump. One of the most simple and powerful was the lie about Charlottesville. When I process Charlottesville, I'm probably one of those people, David, that you talk about. I was just so scared and angry.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I took at face value what the media said that Donald Trump said. And then I was really angry at Donald Trump until I saw the footage and saw that it was just a complete lie. And that is just an incredible shirking of responsibility that the media has undertaken. The deviousness, the dishonesty, it's really bad. And that's where I said, I have to stop. As a grown up rational man,
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
As the head of my family, I need to re-underwrite where I'm coming from. Well, head of my family with Nat, when she lets me be, but anyways.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But the thing is, I started to re-underwrite. And I do that every day in my day job. I'm running a company. Is 80-90 going well or not well? It depends on the conditions on the ground. When things are going well, I need to do more of those things. When things are not going well, I need to re-underwrite. Is it something that I'm in control of? Is it something that I've missed? How do I change it?
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
How do I get my team to be better? I live it every day. In investing, it's the same thing. There was periods where I was on top of the world and everything was working. Then there were waves where things were not working, but I still had to show up and do my job well. As it's turning out, in those darkest hours was when I probably have made some of my absolute best new investments.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
That would not have happened if I did not keep my feet on the ground and constantly re-underwrite and try to challenge my biases. There are so many examples that have happened to Trump that when you actually unpack them, there was a concerted effort to lie. And that is why it's important for folks to be able to suspend that judgment.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The second thing I would say is then you saw four years of the man in office. And if you actually separate the interpretation by the media who frankly just hate him with what he actually did, you take a step back and you're like, man, these accomplishments were incredible. For example, let's look at what happened with the Abraham Accords.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We have never been closer to substantial and sustained peace in the Middle East in any era of government under any president than we were when Jared Kushner on behalf of Donald Trump negotiated those agreements. And look how far we have slipped since then. And all of that happened as a result of the incoming government wanting to undo what was so logically right in the first place.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And part of that was to feed a media cycle. So again, I just go back to David, all of these normal people, and I know a lot of them as well. Speak to them. Yeah. Like, I mean, yeah, you guys need to just take a step back and take a beat and just think about something for a second. How do so many normal, high functioning, well-intended people switch sides? How did that happen?
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Well, I have no influence on this process, so I'm just totally spitballing. But people who I think are who I think are excellent. I'm going to put Bobby Kennedy right at the top of the list.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that Bobby has an opportunity to allow the transparency of information that will allow folks to keep doing what we've done or to change course in a way that right now I think is a little bit more difficult than it needs to be. I think Vivek Ramaswamy is indefatigable. I think he's a
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
you know, if you remember back to the Republican primaries, there was only one person that did not attack Donald Trump and it was Vivek. I think he believed in what Donald Trump was doing and was willing to sort of embrace and extend this idea. So I think he'd be a really good proxy. I don't know what role that looks like, but I just think that he would be It'd be amazing.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah. Just to go through the list, I think Tulsi Gabbard is so awesome.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah. Veterans affairs, I think.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
It's John Thune versus Mike Lee. Yeah.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And then the big cabinet positions that are left, I think defense, probably somebody like Rick Grinnell, who's already worked for Trump and was the DNI right at the end, I think. And then in treasury, it's, you know, I think people say it's between Scott Besant and John Paulson. I'm not so sure. I don't know. If I had governor, I think it's like probably Haskell.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But then, you know, I saw like you saw Jerome Powell.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
He's got until mid 26.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The difference this time around, which is so incredible, is that you're now seeing on X people asking all the neocons to be named and shamed, and they're creating these lists so that they can't worm their way in. It's the most incredible thing I've ever seen, where Have you espoused those views in the past? If so, the likelihood that somebody will
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Raise an alarm bell now so that you can't get near this administration. I've never seen anything like that before, actually. Yeah.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
That's a no-brainer. I would love to do that. Absolutely. Not full-time because I'm running a company, but if there was the opportunity to help, basically... Just put me on the Doge committee, if you wouldn't mind.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Elon did say this today, but he said, the A-team are running companies. We're all running companies. But if asked to serve, especially in a part-time capacity where you don't have to divest everything you own and you can actually just go and call bullshit and actually just make sure good decisions get made, it would be an honor to serve in that capacity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think everybody should have given a chance. I want to say one thing just to build on- Oh, sorry.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I do want to give a shout out to Elon. And in one very specific way, you've heard all these stories where he gets obsessed about something and then he focuses on it at the sake of everything else and strips it down and gets to first principles, rebuilds it back up and it works. And as far as I can tell, basically when he decided that this election was going to come down to Pennsylvania,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
on one hand and young men on the other. He just kept doing that one thing over and over and over again. Every time you turned on X, he was doing a rally. He was speaking to the residents of Pennsylvania and or young disaffected voters and getting them out.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And then his PAC built an infrastructure that rivaled the democratic infrastructure in terms of get out the vote and transportation with a lot less money and only in a month or two. This is incredible. Well, and then the sweepstakes was also a really good idea. It's really, really incredible.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah, and so I think this is where- It was dismissed on its face because if any person spent eight seconds understanding the law, the judge dismissed it within an hour.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
When the legal infrastructure of America dismisses a case on its face within 60 minutes of it being heard, it means it is a farce.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Billion dollars.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The person on the Democratic side where I feel the most disappointment after all of this is Barack Obama. I think he, in the period when he was elected, to me was just transcendent. And I thought that this is a person that really was immune to getting assimilated into the board. And I don't know why I thought that, but I did think that.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I was just so saddened to see the tone and the rhetoric from Barack Obama during this last homestretch. I think was reputationally very damaging to him. What did he say that offended you? It didn't offend me. It was just observing. Or disappointing.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
When the rhetoric was trying to propagate these lies, the very fine people hoax, all of these things, I just thought, he's so much smarter than this. The abortion ban. The abortion ban. He knows that these things are not true. Why is he saying... objective lies. I don't really judge politicians for doing it in general, but I never considered him a politician.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I sort of considered him here, just like this echelon above. And I was really disappointed that he chose to go down that path.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Down to the level of an average politician. Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
No, again, I would just temper and tone down that rhetoric. Nobody's blowing up anything. But I think step one is going to be a level of transparency so that doing the obvious becomes obvious.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I think that if you look back over 40 or 50 years, what has happened is that secretaries and political appointments have gone from get the best person in the job because they know it to here's political payola, if you will. And I think the pendulum has swung to too far of an extreme.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
That's why the swamp people are able to maintain control, because the person above them who's appointed doesn't fundamentally know the inner workings of the organization. I suspect what you're going to see is a radical push to transparency.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I think that when you combine transparency, and Sachs called for this, a version of the Twitter files for the government, I do think you're going to see that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But if you combine that push to transparency with a handful of topics, you know, by the way, we introduced a long time ago this idea of zero-based budgeting into the lexicon and language of these political candidates that they used all the way through to the finish line. I do believe the Republicans earnestly mean it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And so I think when you put these two things together, Freiburg, I think what you will have is all of this laid bare. And then I think it'll start a debate on what to do. And I think the decisions about what to do will be so blindingly obvious. The low hanging fruit will save this country once we pluck it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
If you look at what Bobby posted to Instagram, Nick, I don't know if you can find it, but it was pretty telling on this dimension of the first inning is going to be about absolute radical transparency and sharing with the American people everything that's been under the covers. By the way, it's not just on that dimension, right? We're going to see the Epstein files.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We're going to see the Diddy lists. We're going to see the JFK file. I know that these things are sort of fringe conspiracy theory type things for some people. But the point is, from pillar to post, that first phase of this radical truth-seeking transparency is an incredible disinfectant that you can build from.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And he told the FDA, I think, something to the effect of pack your bags and keep your records. Now, let's take the hyperbolic part of it out. But it's the keep your records part that should be valuable because we deserve to have answers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Now, when you think at the same time that you have inventions like AI that can crunch every single piece of data under the sun and tell you the absolute truth, imagine when you put transparency and the government sharing incredible amounts of information with the compute power that the Googles and the Facebooks and the open AIs of the world are creating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
You'll know these answers to all of these questions. Vaccines, are they good or bad? When? How? Fluoride, is it good or bad? When? How? All of these drugs that have been approved, why? All of these drugs that have not been approved, why? You're going to start to see some really interesting things. Has there been research on the impacts of food on physiology? Were they suppressed?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Were they not suppressed? So I think phase one is get it all out into the open.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The incompleteness of the actual clinical validation studies, the authorizations and the waivers that were secured, how good or how brittle or how fragile was that data? By the way, I think what it'll also do, Freeberg, is if it looks like this data is actually of extreme high quality, you know what that does? It reestablishes trust in that institution, which is also a win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So this whole thing is a win-win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
This will not be through FOIA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I'm a knucklehead. Did you just sashay into your seat? I am right here. Show us your jazz hands.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that we're going to look back on this era, and I think it's going to last about 20 years or so, at least, which I call a return to originalism. We are returning to the founding principles of this startup called America, and I think it's incredible. I think Sachs is right. There's this unbelievable living document that that created this incredible experiment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We veered way far away from it. It's taken us a lot of courage to get back to that place where now you can actually let that guiding document govern a highly meritocratic country. So it's going to be a lot of hard work, but my gosh, it's just an incredible moment and opportunity. Everybody should just take a breath and remember that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I wished Lurie a hearty congratulations. Nick, can you show him the tweet?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Wow, it's a really good question. I think that there's many layers of the answer. But I think in its most basic calculation, I think that the bottom fell out of the Democratic Party. And if you look at why, there's a simple explanation and then there's the more nuanced explanation. I think the simple explanation is like they just lost the script.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
David Sachs should be the governor of California.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I am 100% serious. It's the fifth largest economy in the world. This is marked today as the day that I have decided that I am going to convince David to be the governor of California.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I'm just going to say that David Sachs would be an incredible governor of California. I'm not a candidate. I understand. I understand blah, blah, blah. Let's start the rumor right now. He's lying. He said it to me privately. There's no rumor. I'm just telling you right now that within two years, I will have convinced him to do it. It'll be the perfect time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Gavin Newsom has been terrible for the state. We have seen trillions of dollars of market cap exit the state in terms of corporations that have left. We have gone from record surpluses to record deficits. We have an education system that is failing millions of kids. What is going on here? We have taxes that are through the roof.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And when you spend more and more and more to get less and less and less, and it takes more and more out of everybody's pocket, What is the answer? The answer is you have to fundamentally change everything that's happening from first principles.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I'll take the other side.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that there was so many people that just got really tired of being spoken at by and labeled misogynist, racist, fascist, transphobe, whatever it was. And there was just these litany of these judgmental labels that would come out instead of engaging on the topics at hand. So I think the Democratic Party played this game of trying to use
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I see sacks in Sacramento. See sacks in Sacramento. Not gonna happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
identities, genders, races, as a bid to basically get people that they thought should always vote in their direction to continue to support them. And instead what happened was people just started to think for themselves and say, hold on a second, I'm just a normal person that wants to be left alone. What matters to me?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
You're saying men don't want to work for Tesla or SpaceX because of abortions?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Listen, I'll say what I said again. He's a good human being. I would encourage you to get to know him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Just that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Take a beast, folks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
What? No veggie burgers? What are you talking about? Eat before you go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We're going to ban veggie burgers. They banned fake meat in Florida. I already texted Bobby to ban anything with soy lecithin, carganine, and xanthan gum. All that stuff is verboten.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Vegans better learn to find natural sources of protein because the unnatural sources
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We have to tell you what to eat and what to do. Zantum gum continues to dysregulate your physiology. Zantum gum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Bye-bye. Love you guys. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I think what Donald Trump spoke to was a desire for folks to have economic prosperity, a safe neighborhood, A predictable educational curriculum where these kids could go to school, not be indoctrinated and come out the other side and just know some useful skills so that they could get a good job and do better than they did. And all these basic truths ended up on the ballot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And so it was a bunch of perception versus just a bunch of hard realities. And I think Trump stayed focused and ultimately made sure that people understood that that's what he was focused on. And I think the Democrats just went to this place of demagoguery and labels. And I think it was just a resounding defeat. And David, I just want you to like, just to put a pin on how resounding it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
In California and New York, which I would say are the two most prolific bastions of elitist liberal thinking, Democrats won those states in some of the narrowest margins they've ever seen. I think in 2020, they won California by 29 points. It was barely half is what they won by this year. In New York, it shrunk to a 12-point margin. So what is this telling you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
It's telling you that the Democrats really need to retool and get back to first principles. It was a cataclysmic dismissal of wokeism, of cancel culture, of judgmentalism. It was a ringing endorsement of a meritocracy, of just plain, simple common sense, of talking with people and to people, being able to tolerate disagreements, remaining friends. All of those things were on the ballot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And it was just an absolute resounding victory for just normalcy. That's what I think we saw. We saw a return to normalcy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
We're all influencers now. Did you guys see my deck this month? We're all influencers now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Now, that's a good bit, Jacob. That's good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The first is, I think the DOJ and the FTC are totally way out of their ski tips on this. This is a totally nascent industry. We don't have any good examples of end-user use cases, either in the enterprise or amongst consumers. We only have 18 months of spend history. It is true that we've spent probably $750 billion to a trillion dollars collectively now on things with the AI label.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But it is also true that that's probably generated less than $10 billion in revenue. So I don't see what they're exactly investigating. in an extremely immature market where we haven't yet seen one cycle of boom and bust so that we know what we're actually dealing with. So it's way too premature and it's just people afraid and tilting at windmills. The second part, the part that's mixed though is
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
We are seeing a clever form of deal-making that these huge hyperscalers are doing to work around the traditional constraints that you've had on businesses. Jason, you and I worked at AOL in a moment where AOL paid a very dear cost for essentially round-tripping revenue. Yep.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Microsoft had to go through a huge DOJ inquiry and a settlement decree, and they were in the penalty box for most of Steve Ballmer's tenure as a CEO. A lost decade, yeah. And the handcuffs came off when Satya took over that business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So I think what I'm trying to say is folks have become extremely sophisticated at replacing roundtripping with these complicated TAC 2.0, whatever you want to call it, credit-oriented deals. They'll finance you to buy their own chips. All of this stuff... has to be scrutinized a little bit more. So that part I support. But all of a sudden, launching an antitrust investigation makes no sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So I really think the inquiry should be coming from the SEC about, is this real revenue?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And capitalism. And you're exactly right. And innovation. I wouldn't even say it's Silicon Valley. It's like if you're going to go and build things, that are at the bleeding edge. You know, the government used to be the most critical supporter of that, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
If you think about space or defense, these are areas, the internet itself, the government was the partner of private industry to make sure that there was no regulation and that like really, really forward-looking innovation could happen. That should be their role.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
No, he's posting a meme. Okay, thank you. He put a picture on the internet. Okay. I mean, again, this is like the problem that we have, which is that he disclosed his position in a different way. Now, we don't know whether that disclosure is accurate because I think it was just a screenshot of like some statement inside of a Reddit thread, right? And then that got posted many times elsewhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Probably, yeah, I would guess. I don't know all the rankings, but... And I guess on YouTube, we got labeled with some COVID thingamajig. I mean, what is going on at YouTube? What a joke.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Is this accurate? I don't know. Because he has no obligation as an individual to do any of this stuff. Because he's not running a hedge fund and he's not running other people's money. Now, if he was acting in concert with other people, you could say, hey, hold on a second.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
If you're repping not just your money, but other people's money and you did this, then there's probably a disclosure obligation there. But at the end of the day, this is a guy that acted and basically created hype. And right now, the SEC does not have a framework to deal with that because the rules that existed didn't understand social media and whatnot. And he's also not a regulated entity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
He's just an individual. Now, if it turns out that he was selling while he was posting this stuff and trying to manipulate the market in some way, obviously they could find issue with that. But just for him being a credible influencer, and creating momentum for an underlying position, that in and of itself is not illegal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
This is kind of... The Wall Street Journal as well. If you look at the Wall Street Journal today, there's an entire article basically with the headline, is what Keith Gill is doing illegal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think you can view this in a different lens, which is here is an individual that is totally outside of the establishment that however he's done it, has gotten a hold of hundreds of millions of dollars, maybe even now billions if the stock keeps going. And I think that that for the establishment that controls those pipes, very disconcerting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And they'll do something that's even more dangerous, which is they can get synthetically short. So they'll, they'll add leverage to this, using all kinds of esoteric derivatives that other banks on Wall Street will happily sell them. And then when those are disclosed, then the Redditors can just pump it even more, which causes massive margin calls.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So I think, I think the thing that Friedberg, you're saying, though, this is this existential thing that comes back, it's happened in NFTs, it's happened in the dot com bubble, it happened in SPACs, it's happened in crypto. Are we supposed to protect people? And then the question is, who is the we?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And are you supposed to say, if you're an adult and you can read, then read the disclosures and you're on your own. That's what the SEC says. And that's what the rule of law has been. And so this is going to be an interesting test because instead of an organization, it's going to be a person, in this case, Keith Gill, who will be the face of what happens to the stock.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Because if a bunch of people all of a sudden plow into this thing, and then it goes to five, It'll be really interesting to see the reaction. Hey, you should have saved us. How could this happen? You know, he dumped this on all of us. And the answer is no, he did not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Enough with the nanny state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And you showed how the government protected everybody, which was you showed the revenue and the profits and the margins, which is publicly available.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
You didn't even use a sophisticated model. You used probably the calculator app on your freaking Mac to figure out that it was 192 times. No, he did the back of the envelope. No, no, no. I'm sure he used the calculator app. Actually, I have the Casio.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The whole point is you can figure out that there's no logical justification for this company using one Google search and the calculator app on your Mac.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The other thing that you're saying, which is really important, is you have to remember what the capital markets and the stock market is there for. It's not meant for this. This is a small little cul-de-sac, but the overwhelming majority of the capital markets and the equity markets is to allocate excess capital to good ideas. That's what is usually happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
There's a bunch of us that will put a bunch of our money into things because we think it's the right thing to do. And that is the overwhelming majority of what is happening in the stock market every day. And David's right. Every now and then, one of these things randomly comes up. And every period of time, there'll be a few parts of the market that go crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But the reality is that's not what the overwhelming majority of the actions and that's not why the security is also there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So now he's got a follower count that he can put on his hands. Is it still all of his money that he's betting?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's just... What happens when he loses? Is there a day where he's lost a lot of money? Oh, dude, you got to watch it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I want to see what happens when he loses like a big number.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I'll be honest with you, this may get me back on Instagram. This is so juicy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Oh, day 55. Oh, here we go. Here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I've had them trot out the cooler. When I was playing craps once, I was so mad. And I was on such a heater. And what happens is You guys have seen me play craps where it's like, it's all rhythm, right? So it's like, I get the dice in a certain way. You know, I do that. And then they bring in this guy and he was like a klutz. It's like Daniel Day-Lewis in my left foot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
All of a sudden, everything is spilling everywhere. Four dice fall off the table. I got so out of rhythm. You broke the rhythm. It was so horrible. I was so mad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Really good idea, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Go to your own job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Put on your big boy pants. Don't drink and drive. Don't use drugs. That means like all of a sudden, like we need to govern how you're not a functioning adult.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Or do whatever you want and please just take responsibility for yourself because it's not our job. I'm responsible for my children, not you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Should short sellers be more disclosed? I really think that's a very good idea. I do think that there are some short sellers who are doing it because they have to hedge a position that they have. But then there are other short sellers who are doing it speculatively. And there are synthetic instruments that banks will sell you to go massively super short.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
That's how you can get a situation where 140% of the stock is sold short, which shouldn't make sense. If there's only 100 shares of a company, how could it be that 140 shares are sold short? It's because you can have these synthetic derivatives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So there are ways where if you have... a formal trading relationship with Wall Street. And you need to be of a certain size and they go through a diligence process. They give you, so I have one called an ISDA. And it's essentially an account and a framework that you negotiate with a bank
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
that allows you to call them and say, hey, give me A, B, or C. And other times they'll call you and say, hey, I have this really interesting way to play X, Y, Z. And one of the things that you can do with them is you can say, listen, I want to go super, super long or super, super short, a theme or a company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And they'll create a contract between you and them that'll allow you to get that kind of exposure. Now, you're not supposed to do that on a regular basis, nor are you supposed to lever this up. This is actually what blew up a different hedge fund called Archegos. I remember we covered it. And in that, I guess what happened was the gentleman was calling many banks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
and doing all these things, and one bank didn't know what the other bank was doing, so all of a sudden there was this massive synthetic leverage that he was getting on, I think it was News Corp stock, and then they found out, then it was unwound, then he owed a bunch of money, he couldn't pay it, the whole thing shut down, the stock market went crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So there does need to be that disclosure, but there isn't a rule that says that. And every time somebody tries to introduce it, the broker-dealers basically lobby and kill it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, it is tied in the sense that ultimately it all needs to feed back to an actual physical share. And so this is where all this price behavior gets further amplified. I think the point is that these forms of expressing risk can really amplify what would otherwise happen. So in Freeberg's example, most people would sit there, get the financials.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Some would maybe say, historically, this thing looks like a short, or I wouldn't even buy it at all, right? Yeah. But other people may say, well, if I listen to the chairman and I think about the future, maybe I go long. That's a fine thing. You can enter the stock market and do that. But all this other stuff amplifies all these things to a degree that we're not really used to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Okay, why?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Competition? I do think that it's hard right now for companies to get access to capital. I think more diverse and more flexible ways where smart investors can allocate their money into the ideas that they want are better. I think that the duopoly hasn't created enough competition. So the NASDAQ and New York Stock Exchange haven't innovated. And in fact, they've probably been a little regressive
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
in terms of filing requirements, listing requirements, in terms of board composition, they've fallen for a bunch of things that don't actually point to the economic rationale or value in a company. And so I think if you have a third player, there's a chance that more competition will create more rational behavior, which will flow into the companies themselves. So I'm a huge fan of this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think that the stock exchanges right now are too brittle. And that large reason is because there's only two of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
No. The problem is that we don't know what the right form factor for a super scaled consumer AI app looks like. So we've all, again, I mean, I'm not trying to be a wet blanket. It's just that when you look at what's built so far, I think most of the things we've seen are the Friendster and MySpaces of this class of app. We haven't seen the Facebooks and the Instagrams yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And the reason is because we haven't experimented and pushed the boundaries of the form factor. So for example, in the first phases of social networking, The idea that you would collect information about all your friends and then create something called a newsfeed was totally shocking. And I remember when we first released it, people got really upset. And then it just became this de facto.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Why were they upset about it? Tell me. Well, it's this idea that you collected this information and then you presented it about all of your friends was disconcerting initially as a feature. Now, if you don't have a newsfeed of some kind in your app, for many apps, it's DOA, right? So the same problem exists today. All we've done today is we've
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
replicated an existing use case with a slightly better feature here or there. Nobody has gone out and said on a blank canvas, let me completely reimagine how consumers want value with these things to enable it. And until that happens, we're just wasting time. So the idea that Apple with this thousand dollar device is all of a sudden going to figure out that this is why you're going to upgrade,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think is pretty speculative. And I think they're going to be disappointed. I think people have realized that four generations ago was more than enough. And on top of this, the stuff that you value inside the iPhone is not what you're going to need for AI. So actually, spending a trillion billion dollars on the fourth camera lens is not going to be what solves this problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And so you're more likely to have a very simple earbud that is very inconspicuous and discreetly in your inner ear well speaking information to you than you are with a companion $500 phone than I think you will be with a $1,500 iPhone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
My point is you don't need a $1,500 device to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Uber has the data. DoorDash has the data.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's not there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
You would have to fundamentally change the SDK. The idea then that Apple can take a tax on that is outrageous. I think the whole app economy would blow up if Apple tried to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I encourage Apple to try to change the terms of service and see what happens.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Yeah, I think Vinod's comments are a microcosm of something that's a little bit bigger than just him and I think is roughly emblematic of the mainstream media, which is I think the four of us have found over the course of these last four years doing the podcast a rhythm. where there's a whole diversity of views. We've always respected each other. We've learned from each other.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And each of us have taken turns expressing something that the others have ended up converging on. That's not a holistic statement on every issue, but it has happened. And that's an incredible example of how you should figure things out from first principles, especially things that matter. And I think this is the first time, and you know, look, David said this a few years ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Yeah, totally. I think that climate change stalled when it was an emotional and philosophical rallying cry, largely of the left. when instead it became something about resilience and domestic manufacturing, both sides came together. And I think we're at a point now where the US's energy independence plus the amount of reliance on non-carbon based fuels will drive a sea change in the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think it'll be copied in Western Europe. And it's also going to be at enough of a low price point where it'll get embraced in the developing world. It's an incredible example of if you want to take an idea and a bunch of solutions and want to die on the hill of messaging and platitudes, it'll make no progress.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But if instead you're willing to be less extreme about it and actually just frame it in economic value add, All of a sudden, everybody embraces it and it just becomes obvious. So I think that we're going to do wonders over the next 20 and 30 and 40 years all over the world to push back on the general state of warming.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But I think it will have happened because the economic incentives aligned, not because of and a philosophical or emotional framing of the issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I have one more birthday in my family today. Making us all look bad. This is one of the most incredible people in my life. Charismatic, funny, charming, intelligent people. It is my bestie David Friedberg's birthday today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Thank you for showing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And? It's also AK-47. Alan Keating's birthday today as well. Oh, you guys have the same birthday. I love Alan Keating. Shout out to Alan Keating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
He said, Sachs did, that the course of elections will be driven by podcasts. And I didn't give that a full enough weighting at the moment when he said it. But I think what I'm realizing is it's not necessarily just that podcasts will frame elections, but it's the counterfactual, which is that it fills a vacuum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think what you're seeing right now are the reactions of people that have thrived in what used to work, which was a traditional media infrastructure that would shape how people were supposed to think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But then all of a sudden, if you can have a platform like this, where people just talk from first principles, respectfully, and then the chips are going to be what it is, and people will come to their own conclusions, I think that that's what people are reacting to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So I think what Vinod is reacting to is this sort of discomfort where you see four reasonable, intelligent people all of a sudden talk open-mindedly about what's happening in the presidential election. And what you leave out is the planted orthodoxy of what you're supposed to think. And that's disconcerting to him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's disconcerting and confusing maybe to Sorkin, who I think is a wonderful reporter and a thinker. It's disconcerting, Jason, to every single media outlet over the last week that's breathlessly been trying to get me or Saks to have an opinion on this. And the reason I've deleted all of these emails is they don't get a chance to frame what we think. Mm-hmm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
You can listen to the podcast and know what we think. This is the future of how smart, reasonable, moderate people should make decisions. It is an example. Talking to somebody you disagree with does not make your opinion bastardized. It actually makes your opinion valuable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
There are these simple truths to living a productive life that if you want to embrace, you need to find friends that you can trust. Even on issues when you disagree, you can hear them out. So that's what's happening right now. And I think that that's why we all need to sort of stand together and lock in arms and just keep moving forward. It is something really important here that's happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think that's why the media and these opinion makers are losing their minds.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I also think it's important to make sure that we reiterate again, at the sake of being pedantic, the facts, which is this is a nonpartisan show. And it is a platform that has showcased and given time to Democrats and Republicans and independents. And they've all taken us up on it. So that thought by Vinod is incredible. at best, incomplete, and more appropriately, just stupid and factually wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Larry Summers, Dean Phillips, Bobby Kennedy, Chris Christie. I mean, this is a spectrum of people that we are bringing on. Cheryl Sandberg. Cheryl Sandberg. You can hear from them. Jared Kushner. Jared Kushner. You can hear from them in an unfiltered way and come to your own conclusion. That's why we were number eight last week. That's the exact reason why.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think that that's very scary because instead of power brokers being able to filter an opinion, you now have an opportunity to just hear it for yourself, discuss it amongst your friends and come to your own conclusion. So we have always been bipartisan here and we will continue to be bipartisan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The second thing is, and I just want to say this again, I have asked the White House for President Biden to come on the show. Oh, come on the show, please. Yeah. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And it's getting very personal. Well said. Really well said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And so it's kind of like it's going to be the least effective.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
No, we do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Retrain, okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
For all listeners, I just want you to know they've been bickering like this for 20 years. So it's the funniest thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
LGBTQ, were they allowed?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think it's a wonderful Rorschach test for basic intelligence. I mean, if you just read something and all of a sudden, like, that's my problem, it's probably not your problem. And so it's a great way to actually weed out the people that were just meant to fail anyways and just needed a way to externalize their frustration and have an excuse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I have never seen a person build a successful company unless they understood intimately the core amount of value that their company created and knew how to balance getting into the weeds with scaling through other people. I've never seen a good example of a great CEO that didn't do that well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And there is no word salad that explains this. It's incredibly unique to every single company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I would say it's their job to have the strategic wherewithal to understand what it takes to win. and then win at all costs. That's their job. And if you cannot win, and then you externalize your inability to win to an essay or something else, you're probably going to fail and your company's probably going to fail.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And they each did it uniquely. I don't think there's a single way in which any one of those companies is run that necessarily you could have cut and pasted it to the other companies and have it worked. So it requires a smart individual who understands their company and their human capital intimately well and their business model.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I don't see most founders starting a business because they've done some first principles analysis. I see most founders starting companies because they see a gap that they're pretty sure exists. But I think the biggest thing that founders have is this intersection of fearlessness and naivety. And so if they knew too much, they would never do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
that I don't think necessarily means that the entire set of all of those people are actually great first principles thinkers. The first principles is required after product market fit. What's required before product market fit is risk-taking, curiosity, relentless iteration, and those are a very different set of characteristics. Is it true that sub-founders can then change their toolkit?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Absolutely. But is it true that, quote unquote, because you have a title, you have those things? Absolutely not. Otherwise, we would have a much higher success rate in Silicon Valley than we do. There is a reason why 95% of these companies go to zero. It's because the ability to do the first thing is rare, and then the ability to transition is even more rare.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think that's a really good point. Like if you look at some technology businesses, they start off looking like technology businesses and what they really are are tech-enabled consumer businesses. Other businesses are pure technology companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And why that distinction is important in this context is that there are certain kinds of challenges you have in the former that you just don't have in the latter and vice versa. So if you're a Google or a Facebook and you run into some problem,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Typically, the solution is you can engineer around it because ultimately your product is free and there's a different way to scale and grow and create feature value because those are also incrementally free. If you look at a company like Airbnb and if you look at the last six months in the stock, what is it telling you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
It's telling you that the people that own it have realized that it's less of a technology business and it's more of a cyclical business. business that ebbs and flows with the ability to spend money on behalf of the consumer. So now all of a sudden you're put into a different bucket and you grow as people's belief ebbs and flows about the amount of spending that consumers have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Have you guys read Michael Ovitz's book? Yes. Oh, yeah. It's incredible. It's really incredible. It's a great book.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
That is independent of your product quality. And what that means is that there's no amount of investment in technology that you can really make to change that. People need to have excess capital in order to spend on vacations, and then you can capture your fair share of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
But if we're in a recession, that company will be under pressure in a way that has nothing to do with the internal product quality that they exhibit. So these are just dimensionality. It's just different kinds of problems that every single company faces that are totally unique to its own circumstances. So if you are...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Trying to point to some label as the reason why your company is failing, I would just encourage you to not do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Michael's incredible. It's a great book. What a playbook.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Well, I mean, Zuck, I think, did an incredible thing for me, which is he let my team cook. I don't remember having skip level meetings, this, that, none of this other nonsense. But at the same time, what he did was he created air cover for us because let's be honest, I was an immature executive at the time. So I was still learning how to be part of a fabric of a group of people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I did not know how to do that. So I was a little bit of a lone wolf operator with my team and I operated that way. You know, I would... Hey, guys, we get to 100 million people, we're all going to Vegas. And the rest of the company would be upset. And, you know, Mark and Cheryl's job would be to clean up the broken glass of everybody else saying, there's these haves and have nots at Facebook.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And in hindsight, who cares? Because it all worked. In the moment, I could see why everybody else was a little bit upset with that. So they did a wonderful job of letting this wonderful team of very curious iterators do their job. And they basically got out of the way. And I think that that's a wonderful thing. But is that repeatable?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Not in any other company, because that context and timing and moment was very unique. And again, my approach to the job was unique, not necessarily sustainable, not necessarily good or nor bad, different. And we adapted to those boundary conditions to maximize how we could deliver. But it doesn't mean anything to any other company, in my opinion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
He may be the first. I mean, Adyen, I think, is the first and really only company that's implemented AI in production at scale. It'll be really interesting to understand where that's gone in the last year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
How about slightly differently? There are stupid outcomes and smart outcomes. And there are all kinds of different people that can get to stupid outcomes and smart outcomes. And so you have to have the courage to say, that was stupid. Don't ever do that again. And that was smart. Do more of that. And if you can't distinguish the two or you can't get to the latter, you're going to fail.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Instead of founder mode, why don't we call it founder responsibility? Like what are the responsibilities?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Steph Curry is not the founder of the Warriors, but he's the linchpin. Okay. My point is teams, teams need winning players. And then you need to put together your own game plan for winning, but the goal should be winning. If you are not winning, you are a loser.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You gotta win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Winning, winning. If you're not winning, you're losing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Is he going to talk about his experience at Uranus?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I want to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
To your point, like a senior real estate executive would have put together a forecast of cash flows and it would have been a very boring meeting. But if you didn't have the intellectual wherewithal to realize that that was a critical meeting for a real estate business and then listen to that and then manage your burn appropriately, that was a huge mistake.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So again, it just, it always comes down to, can you take all the labels and all of the, you know, navel gazing aside, and can you make good, smart decisions when you're asked to run the play? That's your job at every level of a company. And a CEO that knows how to do that tends to helm winning companies. And I don't think that that is exhibited in whether you are employee zero or employee 20.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
It's an intellectual and psychological archetype.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
That's actually the most important thing that I've heard in this whole discussion that we don't talk enough about. The people that win are deeply intellectually promiscuous. They're learning about many, many things. They're adapting things to their own playbook. The next day, they may throw that piece away and take something else because it's something they learned.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
We use the word re-underwrite a lot, right? But it's this idea of constantly re-underwriting what the conditions on the field are so you know what you need to do in that moment to maximize your chances of success.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Because Sequoia had this reputation in the 90s and early 2000s as somebody that would boot the founders. But when you look at Sequoia's returns, what their returns say is these guys are just winners. They're consummate, incredible winners.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And so what Sequoia had the ability to do, clearly looking backwards, is figure out which companies had people that were adapting themselves and scaling and people who were a little bit in a cul-de-sac and just needed to get replaced. And again, they were operating from a first principles perspective, in my opinion, and they were being Pretty ruthless and acting with zero nostalgia.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So, again, it's just a reminder, like, there is no easy answer here. It is so hard. That is why 95 plus percent of our companies and our efforts end up with nothing to show for it at the end of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Did you say you met with Eric Schmidt recently, Shema? Well, I had a meeting with Eric Schmidt a few weeks ago, which blew my mind. And I think I called Freeberg right afterwards. But this is just an example of like, there are just people that know how to win. He is one of those people. So as part of 8090, one of the things that we're doing is we're building a transpiler.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You know, right now, everybody is very much fixated on PyTorch and The problem with PyTorch and building to NVIDIA is you have this thing called CUDA in the middle of it, which is owned by NVIDIA. And I think that over time, that's problematic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So the long-term solution is you need a functional transpiler that can take CUDA littered code, but be able to compile it without losing performance to any hardware. So Amazon hardware, Google TPU, et cetera. So Eric and I sat down, we were together for a couple of days when we were in Europe and we had like a hour, 90 minute meeting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
The level of technical detail and mastery that he had blew me away. And he asked hundreds of very, very, very specific questions, some of which I knew the answers to, some of which I didn't. I was able to ask him what he thought, he was able to go into the weeds in an enormous amount of detail. And what I thought was,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Where is he finding the time to know as much as he does about compilers and the specifics of AI at this level of detail? And the story of telling you this example is just more that that is a kind of person that is just rare and unique. You can't put a label on that person. And you just want that person near you because he has the ability to help you in a way that most other people just do not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
irrespective of whatever their title is. So it just goes to say, you gotta focus on the actual meat of the problem. And in that specific case, he gave us two technical directions that my team and I are exploring now with this goal that if one of them pans out, I'll go back to Eric and say, look, We tried these things. This is working. This is not working. What do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And it was an incredibly helpful meeting to me. And he just offered that time to me. And so my point is, people like this exist. And I think that the whole goal, if you're trying to win, seek those people out, independent of what they're doing, what their title is. Get them on your team. Learn from them as much as you can. And hopefully you get one step closer to winning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And get them on your team if possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Ideally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Exactly. They're like, get out of the way. Where's Jimmy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Let me break down an algorithm for you. Okay, effectively, it is a mathematical equation of variables and weights. An editor 50 years ago was somebody who had that equation of variables and weights in his or her mind. And so all we did was we translated, again, this multimodal model that was in somebody's brain into a model that's mathematical, that sits in code.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, and I think it's a fig leaf to say that because there is not an individual person who writes 0.2 in front of this one variable and 0.8 in front of the other, that all of a sudden that this isn't editorial decision-making is wrong. We need to understand the current moment in which we live. which is that these computers are thinking actively for us. And that is just true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And so I think we need to acknowledge that because I think it allows us at least to be in a position to rewrite these laws through the lens of the 21st century.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think it is a fig leaf to say that there's a level of abstraction that should give us immunity. I think that these algorithms are taught to iteratively become better and better at hooking people on whatever is trending in that moment. And I think it's probably known to these companies at any given time what's trending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So even though they're not literally going and changing something in the moment, doesn't mean that they don't support it and doesn't mean that they're not aware of it. And it doesn't mean that they haven't created a net to sort of catch these lightnings in a bottle and spread them around.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And so I think we just need to have a more intelligent discussion about how responsibility should be shared in a world where Section 230, yeah, you're right. I'll just say it again. We're not writing deterministic code anymore. It doesn't say if this, then that, show them the blackout video. There is no piece of code anywhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
But it's kind of a fig leaf to say that that isn't the intention of the way that the new form of software is written.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Co-founder of Cotu.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
It's like, I don't think it's about making me angry. I hear what you're saying, but I would offer something slightly different, which is I think that these algorithms focus on momentum. So meaning if Freeberg spends the next 15 minutes looking at mountain biking videos, the momentum shifts to mountain biking. If he then goes to surfing, the algorithm goes to that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And the reason is that the way that these, if you go back to the actual models themselves, the way that they're architected, right? Like if you look inside of a transformer, what is it? There's a neural network part and then there's a self-attention part. What is the self-attention thing trying to do? It's trying to figure out the momentum and the importance of a given input.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So the core structure of the way that like we've solved the problem today is erring towards a thing where If actors in the system wanted to create momentum in one direction versus the other, they can probably do it before they get caught, because the algorithms will amplify that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And I think this is the whole point where these blackout videos, it's not as if somebody wanted to consume that per se, as much as there was a moment in time where the momentum was towards those videos, a large swath of people got it. And then the unfortunate tragedy is the very small percentage of people acted on it and were killed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
This can happen over and over and over again, and all kinds of different things. And I think that's what needs to be addressed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You want me to do that for you and get people right? Yeah, go for it. Can you guys Theo Vaughn it? How would you guys Theo Vaughn this? Go ahead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Jason, let's say the quiet part out loud, okay? We've heard this from Bobby Kennedy. We've heard this from a whole host of other people. We've now heard this from the DOJ. There is an inextricable link between the media and the people that pay for the media that want to influence what the media says. We know that to be true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Now, in this specific case, I hope the DOJ runs us to the ground and gets justice served. What I would say generally is the most incredible decision we ever made is to not have ads. It has been the single biggest clarifying function for our ability to maintain our own opinions and be credible. It's allowed us to change our minds. It's allowed us to evolve.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
If we were sort of characters in a movie, we will have gone through different
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
transitions frankly as as these last four years have gone by i think that that would have been much harder to do if we had people paying us money yes so this is just yet another example of your media diet the more it can come from people who don't need to make money from this the better off you will be because you will get earnest opinions and what will happen is whether it's
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
large multinational corporations or foreign state actors, they are going to find unwitting people to take this money and blather on some set of talking points. Yep. On a whole host of topics.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, so if you're spending 10K a month. I have seven friends and family tickets left. I'm starting seven companies in the next half hour. They're all going to the summit. I'm going to clear $2.3 million of credits, and I'm going to sell them on eBay for $500,000.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think that this is all the tactics leading to the debate on September the 10th. I think that a lot of this polling, you're seeing the sugar high fade on both sides. And I think what we can acknowledge is that the setup going into this debate is eerily reminiscent of the setup going into the first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
which was a very profound sensation that there was a popular vote advantage to the Democratic candidate, Hillary then, Kamala now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
But what everybody got wrong last time, and now what people are doing a much more refined job, other than Nate Silver, this time around, is then being able to do a more nuanced look at the electoral college probability, which is in the opposite direction, favoring Donald Trump and not Kamala. So I think that the Democrats have realized that the sugar high isn't going to win the election.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
They need to be specific in ways that gets moderates. And the only way to do that is to tack to the middle. Because a lot of these other trial balloons were kind of nutty. And those people are not going to win them the election in the key states that matter. Again, it's what we've said before. Five things in five states, right? That's what it's going to come down to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I was confused when I read it. because everybody was breathlessly panting about how incredibly insightful it was. And when I read it, my first thought was, where's the second half that actually explains what this is so that you can have an opinion? And then the next thing I thought was, I don't really understand what any of this is all about. And I tweeted this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
In a quarter century now in Silicon Valley, I think I've encountered two different kinds of people. One are the groups of people that can go right to the heart of issues because they can break things down and look at it from first principles and just ruthlessly attack what's not working with absolutely no nostalgia for people or sunk cost or tech debt. And then there's everybody else.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And I think that that is an archetype that actually drives successful companies. It's not the case that those are only exhibited in founders. I think it's a psychological makeup of a person and the people that have it tend to build good companies. You know, we'll have such a person, for example, at the All In Summit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
If you look at what Nikesh Arora was able to do at Palo Alto Networks, it's incredible. I mean, in eight years, he's created $80 billion of value. How do you do that? I think it's important to understand how that happens. If you look at a whole bunch of other people that are managers, Shantanu Narayan, how has he built Adobe? Satya Nadella, how did he build Microsoft?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
These are all just like a handful of examples of people that have just tacked on collectively trillions of dollars of market cap, way more than all founders added together in most companies, but for one or two. So I think the takeaway is instead of looking for some label,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think you're going to have to do the really hard work if you want a successful business, which is when things are working, have the courage to change the few things that still need changing. And when things are not working, break it down to the studs. And most people don't have the courage to go through the glass eating that is required to get to the other side of that process.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I'm doing well. I turned 48 two days ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
But explain that. What does that mean? Young people will be upset to know that both things happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
One of the things that happened after the Holocaust was there was still a small cohort of people that denied that it ever happened. And I think that there was, to use the word systematic again, a systematic effort to document. There's pictures, there's museums, there's memorials. You can think what you want of World War II or Jews in general, but you can't deny that that happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And the documentation of it is pretty unambiguous or completely unambiguous. When you spent time there, is there an effort to start doing this? And here's where I'm getting to, which is kind of a morbid question, but there was a moment in this documentary where this woman who was the doctor in the morgue, I guess, is talking about all of these bodies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And unfortunately, where my mind went to, but I think it's kind of the right thought, is I hope that there was rape kits done, even if it's posthumously done, Because that's the trail of evidence that allows one to know squarely inside of a box, this is the totality of what happened as a learning lesson for everybody, including not just the people that disagree, but the people that agree.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And then to reinforce some of these basic rights that we thought we've all signed up for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Tell me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Yeah, huge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Cheryl, what is the response in Israel today? How do you judge what Netanyahu is doing both in reaction to the events, but then in reaction to these specific aspects of the events? What are they doing that's different or what would you wish they were doing differently? Or can you just give us a sense of how people are processing this aspect?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
It's to humiliate a people, right? It's to humiliate a country, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Of course, yes. Do we have to log it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Oh, you're going to reveal who Fake Chamath is?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Let's explore that for a second. So when you see the videos, what you see are young people, but you see a lot of young women and many of the leaders of these of these movements on campuses now. The spokespeople are women. The leadership seems mostly to be women. Do you have a reaction to that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Oh, wow. It's a big reveal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Do you have a thought on that when you see these folks and that they should be closer to this realization maybe than a man could theoretically overlook it or try to block it out, but it's actually the leadership of these organizations tend to be mostly women-led and they're basically like, let's keep going and it's about this resistance. How do you react to that when you see that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Sure, why not?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Right, I saw it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Do you think Columbia has done a good job? Well, if you were president of Harvard, what would you have done differently, Cheryl?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I think it's not necessarily the youth, meaning I think you're seeing it in some very specific places that cater to a very specific kind of youth. You see them at Columbia, Harvard. There are these specific Berkeley, UCLA that are bastions of privileged kids for the most part. These are extremely elite institutions that typically...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
allow in kids that have been coached their entire lives to get into those schools. And I think that they're coming there with a lack of fulfillment. And it reminds me at some level of how people reacted to Occupy Wall Street. meaning there were a whole bunch of young people there that probably didn't even know what the whole Occupy Wall Street movement was about. But they showed up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And I think what they found a decade and a half ago or so was community in this weird way. The physical interaction of other people where you had this intimacy around a thing. I'm not condoning Occupy Wall Street, just like I'm not condoning what's happening on campuses. But I think psychologically, what kids are looking for is that level of attachment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And to your point, David, something that they can feel strongly about. And I think they end up getting to the age of 18 and 19, not having felt strongly about anything because they were working on playing nine sports and 14 instruments and all this other bullshit to go to these schools. And then they get there and they feel a little empty. And sometimes negative things can fill the void.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
It's a decision. You just said it. It's a decision.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I knew this, but- There are very few things as you grow older that you realize in life that matters. Thank you. Friends are, that's it. It's just friends.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
That's all you have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
It's a hard pivot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Let's not even try. Also, what's your view on crypto?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
When I watched the documentary, I thought the most important thing is there are these, you said it, Jason, in the fog of war, there are things that happen that are just wholly unacceptable. I remember when I was getting older and I was curious, why did my family not go back to Sri Lanka?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And what do the Tamils, which is a small minority, Hindu minority in the majority Buddhist population, why did they feel so out of sorts? And we were part of the Buddhist majority. And when you insert yourself into that struggle and understand where they're coming from, It's jarring because you have to really like re-underwrite, okay, what are we fighting for? What are they fighting for?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And the most important thing that I got to is what is allowed? Because then you would see things. And the unfortunate part of Sri Lanka's history was in the final parts of the war that ended it, there were some incredible atrocities that were committed. And the United Nations and international court system
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
tried to find justice for the Tamil minority population in what happened in those final hours of that war. I don't think that they did for the most part. But it's just to show you that these things leave deep wounds that frankly can be reopened in a moment. So it's very important that I think these things are, and I hate to say it so unemotionally, but documented.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
for those that don't even understand the Holocaust, if you go to the Holocaust Museum, if you're lucky enough to do it in Israel, I would encourage you to do it, but even in Washington, you know the totality of what happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
There's certain places that document these important moments in history, and if this is one of those moments to the Israeli people, I just encourage them, please make sure that you minimize the mis- and disinformation
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Yeah. And by the way, humans have a way of making decisions, which I think is pretty predictable, which is once you have a point of view, there are things that you believe are facts. And then there's all this other stuff that you have degrees in which you believe that are essentially conjecture.
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
The most important thing in really important debates is to move something from that gray zone into the box of facts. So to speak. And that is the only way that causes people to re-underwrite their principle views. It doesn't matter what topic we're talking about.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So the more that we're able to document and actually make these things unambiguous, I think it actually has a really important role to play in how these young people view what it is that they're a part of. I'm totally pro-protesting. I'm totally in support of standing up for the things that you believe in. I'm not in support of overlooking atrocities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
The Jennifer Duden side or the...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So they use an AI model to... find a new guide RNA?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So it works around every single existing pattern.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I'm on the same page as you. This was occurring billions of years ago. And it just took us billions of years to actually observe it occurring naturally in nature. It's absolutely ridiculous that a patent would be granted on that. Now, the implementation of that in a commercial use case, that's fine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Let's double click into that word denial. So it's a very heightened moment. Everybody is taking sides. Everybody's trying to interpret what they think is the right point of view, whether it's in that moment or historically in the arc of how Israel and Palestine have been in conflict. where does that aspect of denial come from?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Have you spent time trying to unpack like, how do you start to get to a place where you say clearly people were killed, but then when it goes into war crimes and sexual violence, we're actually gonna stop it there because it basically pulls our cause back. So we can't agree that that actually happened. How does that happen? Why is that happening?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
How good do I look? I'm so sun-kissed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
You think she can just hide out and coast? No, right now the calculation is to get as many people... to basically move into the not Trump voting stance. And they're giving as much time as possible to measure that and see if it's a winning strategy. But again, and I think we just talked about this, mathematically, it can win the popular vote, but it will not win the electoral college.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
So she is going to have to appear and be in a position where she's confronted on about four or five key issues. And that's where this presidency is going to get decided. Four or five issues in four or five states, and we'll all know where she stands. On the border, on the economy. By the way, the problem is, and if you look at what's happening now, we are in a recessionary stance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
There's going to be a lot of ink that gets spilled starting in September on the fact that X of a handful of companies were basically in a recession. So that's going to have to get put on the feet of the sitting president and the sitting vice president. So there's a whole set of complicated issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I think it's smart, actually, for her to strategically kind of stay quiet right now and just kind of see All the goodwill that's pent up to the not Trump candidate is going to flow her way. Right. The problem is that that's not enough to sustain yourself for 100 days. And so she's just going to have to take a point of view.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
On the popular vote, Harris has a 57.1% probability of winning the popular vote, 42.9% probability for Trump. I guess I'll start it off with David Sachs. given the momentum coming out of the gate since the announcement of Harris as the Democratic nominee and this recent polling data, what's your read on the landscape today? What's your read on where we stand and what's ahead here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
No, because I think, David, I think you're right. Because when you go into a debate or when you go into these places, people will want to know the answers to these questions. And if the media tries to memory hold this thing, I think the thing that they most don't want, which is another Trump victory, will actually happen because of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Because people will come in, this kind of like ambivalent group of folks that are, or independent group of folks that are looking for very clear point of view on four or five issues, maybe will come to a rally. And instead of that, they'll hear Megan Thee Stallion, and they'll wonder to themselves, well, this is not what I came for. I came to know where you stand on these four or five issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
So the media actually, in order to give her the best chance of getting elected, and this is counterintuitive to them, which is why they probably won't do it, they'll have to confront her on these issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Yeah, I think that's fair. And that's why I invite Vice President Harris onto the All In podcast to join us for a conversation. I think we all really enjoy that. And just to declare my position, I am in camp five, the other camp. I am not pro or anti either of these candidates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I obviously have issues that I think are far more existential to the longevity of the United States and the Republic that need to be addressed, that don't seem to be a priority for either candidate or either party. As I've mentioned many times on the show, that's where I stand. Let's move on, Sax.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I just want to ask, do you think that Trump is at risk of shooting himself in the foot by being too public, too open, and too engaging? If we take a look at what happened this week, the National Association of Black Journalists had a convention on Wednesday. It sent interview requests to both President Trump and Vice President Harris, and Trump accepted and went in person.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Harris said she couldn't do it in person or via Zoom. And according to the National Association of Black Journalists, Harris is in talks to do a Q&A session with them at some point in September. There were two moments that are making a lot of news. One was the first question. Nick, can you play this? Where ABC's Rachel Scott went after Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And what do you take away from these polls?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Sachs, is he shooting himself in the foot by agreeing to show up? He showed up to the Bitcoin conference, which obviously went phenomenally well. But Sachs, is he shooting himself in the foot by being too open and engaging too much? And should he lay low?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
OK, so your opinion is Trump needs to continue to engage openly and publicly. It shows strength and it shows a capacity to deal with adversity and conflict. Point taken. So let's pull up the next clip where Scott then asked Trump if Harris was a DEI candidate. And here's his answer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Timoth, let me ask for your response. Did Trump shoot himself in the foot with that comment? And maybe you can give us your read on how he's doing with respect to this, you know, active engagement with obviously adverse, let's call them, you know, journalists and interviews and forums.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Well, I'd love to hear from the Caucasians. What do you guys think about that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Yeah, I'm not talking about the answer itself. I'm talking more about Trump getting out there and like engaging in this way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Yeah, here's what I will say.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
social media tools replacing traditional media, and then with AI tools that are going to create enormous amounts of very sophisticated misinformation and disinformation. I think the only strategy for politicians from here on out is to leave zero ambiguity between what you think and what you say. And so without judging the quality of the answer,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I think the thing that is going to be the most critical for people is to know that the person that you're voting for is in charge. And you get a great chance to vote this person up or down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And the more content that that person puts out directly, the less likely it is that this ambiguity exists that can then get exploited, whether it's by internal people inside of a country or whether it's foreign adversaries. And so my perspective is, It's pretty fearless of somebody to just constantly say what they think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And again, I'll just go back to what I said before with respect to the Harris campaign. I think that Americans were smart enough, and I think you did a good job of dissecting the electorate into five groups. Americans were smart enough to basically say never Biden because of the risk it represented to not know what one was voting for, irrespective of whatever your historic allegiances were.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I think they're smart enough now to demand answers to the four or five questions that really matter. And I think if Paris wants to really win this and give it a legitimate shot, she's going to have to take a point of view on these five things. And she's going to have to step into the lion's den and be asked very tough questions by a lot of different people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And she's going to have to leave no ambiguity that can be then exploited by misinformation and disinformation between now and the election. So, you know, that's honestly my reaction. Zach, final word?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I do think that the rise of the authentic politician, the rise of the authentic CEO slash typically founder, the rise of the authentic celebrity is definitely the trend that we're seeing, which is that authenticity counts for more than anything, regardless of one's position. And, you know, obviously having trust and
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
in the individual is rooted in the authentic capacity of the individual rather than the teleprompter CEO or the teleprompter politician or the teleprompter or buttoned up or image managed celebrity. And that's definitely been a trend that's been building over the last 10 years, culminating in a lot of these changes that we're now seeing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
By the way, I mean, this is one of the criticisms of a lot of higher... large enterprise CEOs is that they come in, they have all their words written for them by our media team. They have all of their communication scripted, managed. Every press interview is with the right journalists said in the right way. And the CEOs that seem to build the greatest value
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
are those who are typically founders because they're willing and able to be authentic because they weren't hired by the board. It's their business that they built. And so they're willing to be authentic. And the CEOs who operate at scale with authenticity build the greatest market value.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I think people, I think voters look at policy sacks and they look at character And with respect to character, there's a certain value that they ascribe to this authenticity component, which is typically lacking in most politicians. And Trump delivers that authentic component in how he talks and how he's off the cuff and so on. He's got other character issues, which I think hurt him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And on the policy side, people really kind of look at those objectively, those points. What's your policy? And do I trust you as your character?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Yeah, it gets driven from the bottom instead of from the top.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'd like to talk about what's been, I think, a lot of chatter amongst friends of ours who are active in the market that at a policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed held rates steady. Jerome Powell said, quote, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table in September if inflation continues to fall.
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He said, we're getting closer to the point at which it'll be appropriate to reduce our policy rate, but we're not quite at that point. The next Fed meeting where this rate cut could happen is September 17th and 18th. And if you look at the futures markets today, the market is now estimating a 20% probability of a 50-bip rate cut in the September meeting
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80% probability of a 25-bit rate cut, and basically no probability of no rate cut anymore in September. Chamath, is that your read on where we're at? And is the Fed kind of appropriately reading the economic tea leaves, given the recessionary indicators that you just mentioned earlier, and what else we're seeing that the Fed's mandate obviously
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is meant to support both the monetary policy, but also employment in this country.
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I think we're in a recession. And I think the problem with a recession is even as inflation diminishes, if your purchasing power is shrinking faster than prices fall, it still feels like prices are going up. I don't know if you guys have been reading the Wall Street Journal, but like the last couple of days, they've been doing a whole series on people that have been left behind by inflation.
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And I was really surprised as I read those articles, just the sheer quantity of impact in terms of the number of people it's touching independent of salary. And so my takeaway kind of just reinforced the fact that we've sort of like looked past the problem because of the stock market going up. for the last few quarters because of seven companies.
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And now that people are sobering up to the reality that even they don't have an answer for all the money they're spending, the stock market's down next to those seven businesses. And I think that you're going to start to see some real pain in the fall. So Jerome Powell is probably going to cut 25. And I think that if they get to him, he'll try to cut 50.
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But the problem is it won't solve the problem. And I think if... This is, again, where Kamala Harris has to be. She's going to have to make a very difficult calculation here, which is she's going to have to throw Joe Biden and the economic team in the White House under the bus here and say that was them. Yes, they screwed it up. It was against my wishes.
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And here's my vision for how we fix this, because otherwise the Republicans will be all over it. And I think if you have a bad economy like what it looks like going into November, it's going to be very difficult for the Democrats to to win the White House.
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Well, without bringing it back to politics, Sachs, economy, good or bad? And is Jerome Powell going to cut rates 25 bips, 50 bips? Do you agree with what the market's forecasting?
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It's not just fully supported. It's overly supported by the federal government in the United States. And I mentioned this last week. Federal government spending is over 2x the sum of all state spending. Federal government spending into next year with the Biden budget proposal, $7.3 trillion. Yeah. That's like 30% of GDP.
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And I think you guys may remember this analysis I pulled together a couple months ago, where I estimate something close to 30% of US employment is either direct government employment or indirect government employment through government payments to third parties that are employing those individuals. So the government is becoming...
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an integral part of maintaining the flow of dollars in the economy because they are such an integral buyer and seller within the economy and an integral employer within the economy and so to reverse that trend is what i worry about more than anything as i've shared many times which is why i question whether either political candidate actually solves this problem for us and we're almost like you know arguing over which marbles i get while the titanic is sinking
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that there is a real fundamental issue with how this economy is structured. I will tell you anecdotally, I have a lot of conversations with folks that work in the agriculture industry, in the food industry, in the industrial industry, many of these industries that have a very different capital flow cycle than we all deal with typically in Silicon Valley and software.
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And many of them are struggling. I mean, these are businesses where some folks have told me orders completely fell off a cliff in capital equipment. that some small business owners that sell whatever pieces of equipment you want to come up with, they are not getting orders. There's no revenue. There are massive oversupply and underpurchasing happening in the food and ag markets.
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And yet folks are still trying to push up prices in order to make the debt payments that they have to make on their high interest debt now. And that creates a crippling condition for them. Across the economy, I think there's the haves and the have-nots, as is indicated in this
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article that was just pulled up where there are some parts of the economy where you have low debt, high margin businesses that can continue to scale and continue to raise pricing, have a lot of elasticity in pricing. And then there are the others that operate on, you know, 1% interest rate charges, the changes drive their profit or loss for the year in a pretty meaningful way.
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And that's the part of the economy that's really suffering. And unfortunately, the action that will be taken to resolve this isn't necessarily a free market action. It's gonna end up being some sort of government intervention, which furthers the government's involvement in the economy and furthers the tentacles that make it much harder to ultimately pull out of this spiral and this problem.
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That's my rant on this whole point, but.
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All of it, more than 100%. So basically, there has been a net loss in private market jobs, net of the effect of government employment or government spending on companies that then use those dollars to go hire people. Let's talk about the impact on markets. So as a result of this rate cut announcement or this rate cut indication, markets have rallied a little bit.
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But to Chamath's point, there are definitely the haves and the have-nots. AMD beat. They were up 4% after hours on improved AI chip sales. Their revenue was $5.8 billion, up 9% year over year. Microsoft had so-so results. NVIDIA jumped 12% on some comments made by Meta. and Microsoft that both said that there's increased AI demand and they're going to continue to build out capacity.
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So Chamath, I know you've talked a lot about this in the past. Maybe you can give us your read on the comments that were made this week. You've historically said that a lot of this build out is well ahead and there's no real ROI yet. But clearly some of the buyers of this capital equipment are saying, hey, there is ROI. We're going to continue to build aggressively.
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So maybe you can share a little bit on is anything different or we've just kind of seeing folks justify with the decisions they've made.
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I mean, sadly, this is another case of sell the news. These things rallied phantomly in the after hours. And if you look at them, they've all just given back every dollar of gains. So I think that people know that that we're sort of at the tail end of the hype cycle in AI. And every chance, every time these things spike, people take an opportunity to just massively sell.
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I mean, Nvidia has turned over 308 million shares today.
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Yeah, it's crazy. It's literally- We're just at the beginning of the day.
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It's trading like a penny stock. It's going straight down like a lead balloon. Yeah. Meta rallied. They've basically given up all of their gains. It's gone kind of straight down today. But the point isn't that these companies are going to zero. That's not the case. It's just the point is that right now people are optimizing, they're selling every chance they get to kind of book the profits.
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And I think that that's fair because, you know, at some point, nobody knows when all of this phantom money is going to show up.
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Right. So this is independent of what we would call the economy, independent of the recessionary conversation and the rate conversation.
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Look, I mean, I'm in the middle of this right now with 80-90. It's been one of the joys of my career to actually start a company. in the middle of what I think is the most important wave that I've ever seen professionally since social networking. And I jumped into the middle of that wave and I kind of tried to ride the best wave I could there. I'm doing it here.
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But my honest takeaway after being in this thing now for seven months intensely, and I'll be into it for as many years as it takes to build a successful company, is that AI is massively deflationary. It takes not that much money. And the results are really meaningful in terms of the amount of efficiency that you can capture and the costs that you can save. And the right business people, i.e.
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startups that are starting from scratch, like myself and my co-founders at 8090, we will pass that on to our customers because it allows us to differentially price versus incumbent solutions. And so I don't see a path where all of a sudden a multiple of the money that's been spent shows up. I don't see it. I do see a path where companies find tremendous, like think about it this way.
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If you looked in the 1980s, and said, what is the most profitable operational company that existed in the 80s? I don't know what that company was, but I suspect that their EBITDA margins were roughly in the 30 or 40% range, and it was probably incredible. If you fast forward now 40 years, the most efficient company is probably sort of 50 or 60% EBITDA margins.
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The reality is that the best AI-enabled company will probably have margins that are 70% and 80% in the next 15 or 20 years. Now, that's an incredible thing. That's a big prediction. But that will, again, spur the principal law of capitalism that everybody keeps forgetting, which is you compete out excess return.
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And so while you will have many companies that have 60-plus percent operating margins, they'll be in much smaller markets. And there'll be thousands and thousands and thousands of them. So I suspect what happens is that the overall market grows, but the number of companies grows by an even larger order of magnitude.
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And in all of that, the reality is that it's going to be very hard for these big folks to sort of see this value capture that makes any of this investment worthwhile. So I think that you're going to have to have some sort of reset in terms of the CapEx that's happened here.
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I want to switch gears yet again and talk about the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. I hope I pronounced that right. Haniyeh. He was killed by a bomb while staying in a guest house in Tehran, according to the New York Times. Earlier reports indicated that he was in fact killed by a missile strike from Israel.
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But just this morning, the New York Times reported that the guest house where he stayed is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and is part of a large compound known as Neshat in an upscale neighborhood of Northern Tehran. And the article in the New York Times goes on to report that according to several Middle Eastern sources,
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a bomb, a remotely detonated bomb was actually planted in this guest house over two months ago in anticipation of the Hamas leader's stay in this guest house. And it was then set off once he actually stayed in the guest house. This obviously represents kind of an incredible feat in operational capacity and intelligence.
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I think we've known and talked a lot about, and the media is kind of covered quite a bit about the capacity of Mossad. But I just want to kind of get your guys' reaction to this.
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I think that there's a bigger and important story here about the strength of Israel's intelligence and military capacity in the region and what that could mean for their posturing and their demands and their activity in the region in the months and years ahead, particularly with Netanyahu still in charge.
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So, Sachs, maybe you can kick us off with your thoughts on this article and Mossad's role in the assassination of this Hamas leader.
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Let me put you in Netanyahu's seat. You are leading Israel. Hamas comes into your country, attacks, kills lots of people. What is your measured response to that attack from Hamas, given the capacity you have? The Israeli Air Force, by the way, is second only to the United States, just to give you some... statistics. The Israeli Air Force has 90,000 active and reserve personnel and 614 aircraft.
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Israel is reported to have up to 400 nuclear weapons. And they have this extraordinary technical capacity with Mossad and operational capacity that is kind of unrivaled pretty much anywhere in the world, it seems. What do you do if you're sitting in that Yahoo seat that provides a more kind of measured response? And how do you kind of lead your nation?
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Yeah. Chamath, do you want to read? I think that it was, in hindsight, a pretty big miscalculation by Netanyahu to pursue the strategy that they did. And I would have much preferred what you're seeing now, which is a very targeted approach.
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I think it preserves and it would have preserved not just world political support, but just individual people support, where instead of going into Gaza, leveling the place, creating all of this death and destruction and amplifying and confusing
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people where they now all of a sudden had to make a decision between these two groups and now get confused with anti-Semitic sentiment, that should never have happened. It's clear that Mossad is incredibly competent and incredibly capable. I do believe that sovereign countries have the right to defend themselves.
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But then there was a bridge too far, and I think the Israeli government has crossed it. In hindsight, and I think I told you this story, and I may have relayed this in confidence, but I'll just say it again. On October the 8th, what was offered, and I'm not going to say by who, was sort of a meeting of the right political leadership from the Middle East.
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Israel and the United States, where they were all willing to sort of come. And the idea would have been to extend some sort of structured solution for the Palestinian people. Now, that would have been so unintuitive and unexpected. I think everybody would have been a little bit on their heels. But I think what it would have done is it would have passed Netanyahu in an incredible light.
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It would have passed Israel in an incredible light. They would have still preserved the ability to go and kill the individual leaders that they wanted to. but it was rejected.
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And I think that when we look back, these are the kinds of decisions that hopefully history documents accurately so that folks who are in the seat to your point free bird the next time around can make a different calculation. I see, you see the pictures and there's just no way that you can turn them off.
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You know what I mean? I think Israel's biggest asset is probably also their biggest liability, which is their military and intelligence strength. and it emboldens them in a way that they can be more aggressive than perhaps they need to be with respect to maintaining the security of the state, but perhaps being vengeful and vindictive.
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And I know that that's a very controversial statement to be made. I wanna underscore the strength of this military and this intelligence. Do you guys remember the Stuxnet worm from a number of years ago? That story was incredible. The New York Times broke this story in 2012. Duxnet was a malicious computer worm.
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And I'm reading off of Wikipedia because there's a lot of reporting that has different opinions on this. That was first uncovered in 2010 and was thought to have been in development since at least 2005. Now, this computer worm was supposedly developed by Mossad and the NSA. And it was a malicious computer worm that ultimately allowed intrusion
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into the control systems of the centrifuges of Iran's uranium refining systems. And they basically were then able to make those centrifuges go haywire and destroyed themselves. And they did this over and over for several years. And the Iranians could not figure out what was going on or why. They kept it completely secret.
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Ultimately, it was revealed that there was this operation organized by the United States called Operation Olympic Games. That was a cyber disruption operation. And that Mossad had a critical role in.
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By the way, there are two other stories that build on top of this that are tangential but related. One is that there was a nuclear engineer that Israel felt should be unlit. And the way that they did it was via some like remote control machine gun that they planted off of like a highway where the car egressed off the highway and then all of a sudden the thing was shot up.
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A different example was there's a story about how they figured out that Yasser Arafat was sick because they were able to collect a stool sample from a pipe that left his home. and they were able to kind of diagnose that A, it was his stool, and then B, he had some chronic illness.
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My point, I think, in all of this is kind of where you're going, which is that when you have such capability and such precision, to go to the other end of the spectrum, you really have to be sure that you're right. And, you know, as Zach said, I think we're looking back and it's clear that the support around the world, it just isn't there for that kind of mass casualty and that kind of like
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Hey everybody, welcome back to the All In Pod. This week, our hostess with the mostess, J-Cal is out with COVID, getting treated, spending the day in bed. We wish him well. We wish him a speedy recovery. We are going to plow forward like all championship teams do. This week, I think we're going to kick it off with a conversation about the election update.
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No, I mean, it's just like the Russians and the Americans trying to chase the Taliban in Afghanistan forever. This is not a group of individuals that once they're gone, everything is fixed.
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Do you think that J.D. Vance has negatively affected the interest in Trump, that there's a lot of media coverage about J.D. Vance being potentially the wrong pick for vice president and that he's creating more of a challenge for the president's campaign than a boom?
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I recently heard that After Israel struck the embassy in Damascus a few months ago, you may remember this, Iran launched a counterattack. And you remember there were all these like drones that they sent hundreds of them into Israel. But there was supposedly a forewarning that these drones were on the way. There was notice given and it was like, this is it.
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This is our proportional response and we're done. That's right. That's right. What I heard was that Netanyahu did not want to stop. He wanted to escalate after that response from Iran. Now, that coupled with what's going on in the West Bank right now
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where there is a restricted movement of Palestinians within the West Bank and continued development of Jewish settlements, I think really represents a major risk to the region, the Middle East region, that we could see an escalation beyond the response that may be mandated or necessary to secure the state
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that makes things much, much worse in the region and could isolate Israel even further and ultimately draw a lot of powers to that region to try and figure out what side are you on and how do we resolve this? And that could lead to something much bigger and much nastier. So I think while we all observe this and watch this, the behavior of the the targeted attack in Hamas.
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For me, it's not the issue as much as indicating the capacity of this military and this intelligence that means that they probably feel highly emboldened to take whatever steps individuals feel are necessary to secure the state for the long run, which could mean an increased escalation in conflict. And that's, I think, a real kind of point of concern.
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And that's one of the black swan events, I think, that's still outstanding right now. Because if that does happen, if there is, for example, an unraveling of the West Bank, you could see...
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one of these sorts of events that everyone gets drawn like a magnet to the Middle East, and you end up with a major global conflict that becomes a problem for markets, it becomes a problem for the world, and that could be the catalyzing event that I don't think any of us wanna see. To use your logic from before,
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The thing that may plunge the world into having to have a point of view on this may actually be a political calculus that Netanyahu has to engage in, which is around keeping small factions of his coalition government in place, which may not actually represent the full view of the Israeli people. That's what's even more tragic.
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So it's not obviously the Palestinians don't want it, but many Israelis may not want it either. And there may be no avenue if he wants to remain in power. And that's what's so scary.
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And by the way, there's no such thing as a regional war in the Middle East, because every one of those countries has significant allies in Russia, in the United States, in China. What is Saudi Arabia going to do? You know, Jordan is going to end up in a situation where they may end up having to defend the Palestinians and the West Bank, which puts them across the shooting field from the Israelis.
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And the United States is an ally to both Israel and Jordan. What are we going to end up doing? And that's why this whole situation is not just about a regional conflict. It actually draws the whole world back to the Middle East.
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Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
This is why the counterfactual of what could have happened on October 8th is so important, because that would have been UAE, United States, Saudi, and Israel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
No, just those four. And let's put Qatar in the mix as well. But my point is like, my gosh, like that, it could have rewritten world history in such a profound way. It would have just taken some restraint and proportionality. Turn the cheek the other way, kind of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
But not just this attack, like under attack for generations in a region that has been all about conflict and secularity and all of the kind of, you know, identity drivers that make this so deeply personal and rooted in history, not just in a moment or an event.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Yeah. Well, look, let's move on. I'm not trying to judge anyone's behavior. I'm just trying to shine a light on the strength of Israel's capacity and what that may mean for their proclivity for escalatory behavior, which is really scary given that this is not just a regional issue. It becomes a global issue when it does happen. Sorry, go ahead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I thought you were going somewhere else with it, which is I was just going to say in any other simulation, the capability of the Mossad is fodder for incredible movies. Like it's out of a movie. Right. You read these articles and they just don't seem like they're real. Incredible. It's like, what do you mean you smuggled a bomb into the safe house in Iran where all the VIPs stay? Two months ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Two months ago. Two months ago. How does that happen? What does it mean that you actually developed... Yeah, then sit tight. What does it mean that you developed a virus that you were able to get into the actual working computers of the Iranian nuclear complex?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The control units, by the way, the control units. Yeah, the control boards of the equipment made by Siemens, of the equipment made by Siemens that was shipped to Iran.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
That's not like you tell that into something. You know what I mean? That means that there was a person physically there that then found a way to essentially get this firmware implanted. And it's like, this is insane.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
No, you know what happened? I remember the story. They actually did not. What happened was they let the virus circulate in the world for years before someone randomly had it on a USB drive that didn't know they had it, randomly plugged it into a computer in the center of each facility, then it infected, sent out a notice, I'm in here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And then after years, it was finally in there through the random movement of this virus that no one, isn't that incredible? Anyway, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Timoth, what do you think about the Harris campaign, how it's going and the momentum that is being projected in the media and the polling data is clearly demonstrating an improvement over Biden's standings in the polls?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
All right. So political pitch in from David Sachs. We don't have Jake out here to give the other side, but let's keep going. So Bill Ackman's withdrawn his plans to IPO Pershing Square. You know, Chamath, do you want to just give us kind of the background on what he was trying to do? And obviously, this was an attempted $25 billion raise as an IPO.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
He recently reduced the raise target to $2 billion. And when the order book came in, I believe at less than a billion, he scrapped the plans entirely and just announced yesterday that he's pulling the IPO. So can you just explain a little bit about what this IPO was? And then we'll talk a little bit about why we think it fell apart.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I can only repeat what I read, but I'll try to kind of like translate it into non-Wall Street speak. So basically, he has a company. But what that company does is it gets investors to give it slash him money. And then they invest it in all kinds of things that they deem worthwhile. It could be bonds. It could be stocks. It could be currencies. It could be derivatives. They generate a return.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And then they give those returns back to their investors. So that is a hedge fund. The holy grail has always been trying to figure out how can an organization that is- Those funds are raised and distributed back, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I mean, I think you should- Exactly. I don't want to interrupt, but yeah. But just go ahead and say that, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
But the holy grail for someone who runs those businesses is when they realize, well, listen, I get paid a great profit share from those funds when I'm successful. I'm also allowed to take a 2% per year management fee. But I believe I'm building equity. And can I get somebody else to recognize the fact that I'm building equity? And that's no different than a startup, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I mean, I think we had a situation where one candidate was not real. And so Sachs is right that a lot of the polling up until basically last week is not really reliable. Now you have this snapback effect which is more about a lot of people that were coming around to this idea of voting for Trump because Biden was such a bad option, now flip-flopping.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
So, you know, Freeberg, you're building Ohalo. You believe that you're building all kinds of really interesting things rooted in science. And you want other people to judge the value of that as measured by your equity, right? Independent of your revenues and profits today, they want to project in the future, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The problem is that hedge funds have not found a very elegant way to demonstrate that they have any equity value. And there's only been a few, and the formula has been the same. So companies like Blackstone, companies like KKR, companies like Apollo, what have they proven? They've proven that they can raise enormous amounts of money.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
So most of these organizations now are approaching a trillion dollars of capital raised. And they tell investors, well, look, don't worry about the returns anymore. Worry about the 2% because that's like our revenue. And we're generating $20 billion a year of revenue that'll grow at some rateable proportion. We'll manage the teams. We'll compensate them well. But there'll be lots of profitability.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And people have bought that story. So I think a lot of smaller organizations who aspire to be like a Blackstone or an Apollo have tried to get people to buy into this story. And I think what Bill Ackman was trying to do was some version of that, which is to say, I'm going to build an enterprise here. Pershing Square is going to be a standalone business. It's going to have enterprise value.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And you're going to measure that based on the assets that I manage. And it's going to be much greater than what I managed today. And I think he manages roughly $10 billion today. But he thought he was going to raise another $25 in this IPO and then in very short order be at $50 billion. And so... He got people to invest in that business on that premise.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And I think folks put in around a billion dollars and they valued that entity at 10 billion. And so he tried to go and raise his fund. He thought it was going to be 25. And it turned out, I thought it was two, but Freebird, you just said it's less than one. I didn't, I guess, or around one. I just heard that. I'm just hearing that from you for the first time. So I guess what is the takeaway?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Chamath, real quick, this was a closed-end fund he was trying to raise. No, but I think he's also said that Pershing Square eventually has a path to go public. That's how he sold the billion of equity at $10 billion in the master LP. Yeah, but this IPO was just for a fund. No, no, I know. It was the IPO of the fund, and then they were planning afterwards the IPO.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
They were planning afterwards, yes, which he didn't do. My only point was that the fund was basically launching a fund, and then the goal is not the fund itself. The goal is to buttress the underlying logic to take the whole thing public, the manager. Okay. And that's what I mean by taking a company public in finance is next to impossible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The whole point is, what are these businesses in the business of doing? They're in the business of making bets. The problem is that those bets are short-term anomalous events. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't work. The problem with that is that investors who are trying to underwrite 20 or 30 years of returns don't know how that's predictable over that period of time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
For example, you're genetically engineering all kinds of produce that we are going to ingest. If that stuff works at scale, you will have built an enterprise that theoretically has the potential, unless it's disrupted by something else, to make revenue for 20 or 30 years. So people can underwrite that. Google makes a search engine. It's going to last for 20 or 30 years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Facebook makes a social network. It can last for 20 or 30 years. The business of making bets is typically something that can only be measured in days or weeks, maybe months at best. And so I think what he ran into was that realization. It's very hard to get people to value an institution in this way. And so the thing did not work. He'll go back and he'll retool.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The thing that I give Bill Ackman an enormous amount of credit for is he is one of the most resilient individuals I've ever seen in high finance, but generally as a business person. This guy has, he surfed some really big waves. He's landed some really good sets. He's also gotten crushed a few times and the guy just keeps coming back and he seems to be getting more and more refined and capable of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
as a business person. So, you know, he'll probably figure out a way. This is not the first time he's publicly dealt with things that have not worked. But I think it just goes to show you that in finance, these entities that try to sell a piece of the quote-unquote general partner as a company, I just think that it's, frankly, that it doesn't work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
SACs, some reports indicate that investors pulled out of the Pershing Square IPO because of the current market conditions that a lot of market indices have stormed higher and that there is now less upside and it's not a great time to be entering the equity markets. Other reports indicate that investors lost interest in Ackman's fund
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And so I think that's what explains the snapback. But Sachs is right. 100 days is a really long time. And what Nate Silver's poll essentially shows is if she wants to win, not the popular vote, because at this point now, three or four elections in a row, that just doesn't matter anymore. If you want to win the electoral college and be the president, you got to go and win five states.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
because of his activity on x or twitter have you um do you have a point of view do you think that folks pulled out investors have pulled out you're obviously a fund manager who is very active and opinionated on x and y sweater like what you know do you think has this affected your relationship with with raising capital if you're willing to talk about it or maybe just comment on the acmen you know issue that he ran into why did this fail
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
give a point of view on investors having an issue with Ackman because of his outspokenness on various social and political issues over... I can't imagine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I'll be honest, guys. I don't think so. Investors care about making money. And Bill Ackman's a moneymaker. Like, that's undeniable. The guy... takes some losses, but his wins are way bigger than his losses. And he is a proven moneymaker. The problem is that I think the way in which he was trying to monetize the business is just a hard thing to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
You have to have an organization of hundreds approaching thousands of people that are raising all manner of funds. And those funds just deliver very consistent returns, not great, but they never lose money. And that's how you get towards a trillion dollars. And that's how you make it a company and not a great hedge fund.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Some people would disagree. They think he's had a lot of comments on wokeism, as he would call it, and DEI topics. And I agree with him on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The point is more about like what we talked about earlier, which is kind of having an authentic voice and speaking what you believe and speaking what your opinion is versus remaining buttoned up and not speaking what you believe and toeing the line.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
He's in the only industry where his performance is measurable every day in precision. So what I would say is it's irrelevant what he says on Twitter. meaning the quality of his decisions are independent of what he says because they're measurable and they are not something you can gain.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And the reality is that over the last few years, particularly starting in COVID, he has gotten better and better and he's played a very good hand. I think he's an exceptional risk manager and he's timed it. And so the people that say that to you, to be very honest, they're portraying their lack of financial sophistication.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And it creates ambiguity. Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Huge positive. And I think that the part of his business that he hasn't gone back to, which if he does in this chapter of his career with the following that he has... is the activism part. And I think there are two people who I think are incredible at this and where both the written and the spoken word, they have such a mastery of Ackman is one Dan Loeb is the other.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And I think that, you know, in this world where you have the ability to go direct in a way that you've never had before is actually the realm of, um, a different form of activism that I think could be extremely economically rewarding. and valuable in society.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And in order to do that, you have to be very precise on about four or five specific issues. And in the absence of her defining herself on those four or five issues, she's not going to win. She'll win the popular vote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
All right, gentlemen, this has been a great episode of the All In Pod. We missed our comedian in residence, Jason Calacanis, Nostracanis, nostril anus. We miss him. We wish him well, speedy recovery. This has been an episode without the usual humor and flamboyancy that we've all come to know and love. But I think it was great to chat this afternoon and we will see you all next week. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
But again, when people win the popular vote and lose the electoral college, we've now gone through that enough times where that's just the fait accompli inside of American electoral politics. So I think that the Trump campaign and the Harris campaign need to agree on some schedule of debates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I hope that they do two and ideally three and that they both get after it in front of each other so that those five states that are really going to decide this election has an opportunity to make a decision on behalf of the rest of the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Yeah, Nick, if you pull that chart back up again, based on Nate Silver's model of polls, where he takes all the polling data that's been collected by different third parties, he weights them based on the performance of those polls in terms of predictive power historically, and he creates this kind of macro model. That's the Nate Silver approach here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
he's estimating that within the 80% bound, every state on this list is up for grabs, as you can see with the gray lines shown there. There's a very slight margin on the average in Wisconsin for Trump, in Michigan for Harris, in Pennsylvania for Trump. in Nevada for Trump, in North Carolina for Trump, in Virginia for Harris, and so on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
But each of those margins is so slim that there's still quite a lot of decision-making ahead for voters. So pretty clearly on point that this is still very much an open election. I'll give you guys my read. I think that there's five camps of voters going into this when Biden was a candidate. The first is anti-Biden, anything but Biden. The second is anything but Trump. The third is pro Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The fourth is pro Trump. And then the fifth is the other. And I think that that entire bucket of anything but Biden just became available once Biden dropped out of the race. And it was a pretty sizable bucket that there's a large number of voters out there that felt pretty strongly that Biden poses such a significant risk for leadership in this country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
because of the mental issues and the performance issues that we had seen that as much as people didn't love Trump, they were willing to vote for him because he's not Biden. And now that camp has an option and that option is Harris. So some percentage of that camp, and I would say probably a super majority of that camp is now switching into the Harris bucket The pro-Trump bucket doesn't move.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The pro-Biden bucket probably doesn't move. It sticks with Harris. And the anything but Trump bucket doesn't move. It sticks with Harris. So, you know, the fact that there is probably such a sizable number of voters in the anything but Biden camp is what's probably helping Harris at this point and creates a bit of a handicap for Trump going into this last stretch of the campaign. That's my read.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Obviously, Harris came out, guns a-blazing in the media. The accolades seem to be flying. And the polling data is starting to become worrisome, it seems, for the Republicans. Just this week, Nate Silver released his newest model update, the Silver Bulletin. I think he's got it trademarked as nowadays.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Because I know a lot of people with that point of view.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
National Association of Black Journalists.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I would disagree on this because I think in the last two weeks, what I've seen is statements coming out of the Harris camp that clearly distinguish her and her campaign from Biden's policy positions and Biden's campaign rhetoric historically. Most particularly, Sachs is on Israel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
When Netanyahu came to visit the United States, she put out a very pro-Israel statement that we all know the Biden camp has largely avoided doing because of the concern over the pro-Palestinian rights movement's reaction to the Biden camp being pro-Israel. And the Harris statement was pretty finely worded and pretty strongly worded that she is very much in favor of Israel defending itself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
She acknowledged that there is a loss of Palestinian life that matters and we need to acknowledge and address it. But she was very much in support of Israel, which is not a position we've seen the Biden camp take.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And I think that we're starting to see what is a little bit more of a fracturing between Harris being allowed to be free and being allowed to have an opinion outside of the party line dictated by the Biden camp. And I think we'll probably see more of that in the next couple of weeks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And we'll probably see her starting to be a little bit more refined in what that what differentiates her from Biden, because I do think that's what's going to allow her to win this election. And she's going to stand up and say, here's why I am not Joe Biden. And here's what makes me different from that individual. I respect him. I love him. He helped me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
But let me tell you why I'm why I'm different and why that should matter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I think you're an example of the people that want to give her the benefit of the doubt. Okay. I think there's a large faction of those people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
That's not true. No, that's not a fair way to characterize me at all. I'm simply pointing out that she made a statement. I'm pointing out that she made a statement that's different than what Biden said. That's it. That's all I'm saying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And in the model, he tries to estimate what does the polling data show us with respect to the Electoral College elections? and the popular vote in the upcoming presidential election. Harris currently has a 42.5% probability of winning the electoral college, Trump 56.9%, Kennedy coming in at 0%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I do think that what you're saying is exactly what she needs to answer to in public in the next couple of weeks to earn credibility on what is she different from the Biden administration on in terms of policy? And why did she not make that clear when she was in the Biden administration? And she can say, I didn't agree with it. Or she can say, I've changed my mind.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And I think both of those might end up being where she needs to go to. But you're right, she does need to answer to that. I don't think it's clear she has to do any of that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You just hand them the device. Everything was through the device. The little class they got through the device. The way that they would talk to their friends through the device. So it reintroduced itself in a way that we couldn't control. And then we saw this slippage. And then what we did was we just drew a bright red line and we said, we're taking it out of your hands. No more video games.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
No more iPad. We're going to dose it in very small doses. And he had an entire turnaround. But then here's what happened. I took my eye off the ball a little bit this summer because it was like he had a great year. He reset. His self-confidence was coming back. I was like, man, this is amazing. And then I do the thing that, you know, a lot of people would do. I hear you can have an hour.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Ah, yeah, it's fine. You know, talk to your friends, you know. And then it started again. And then again, now we just have to reset. So at least in our example, what we have found, and it may not apply to everybody, but for us, him not...
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
being bathed in this thing had a huge effect playing basketball outside you know roughhousing with his brothers you know having to talk to his friends having to talk to us watching movies you know or we would just sit around because by the way what I noticed was like my kids had a hard time watching movies or listening to songs on Spotify for the full duration
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They'd get to the hook and they'd be like, Ford. Next. And they'd be like, you know, they'd watch like eight minutes next. And I was like, what are you guys doing? Like, this is like enjoying the fullness. They couldn't even sit there for three and a half minutes. So what at least, you know, my son was learning was, right, to just chill. a little bit, be there, be able to watch the show.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And these shows move at a glacial pace relative to what they're used to if they're playing a video game. Or TikTok. Or TikTok. Yeah. Yeah, because TikTok, they're like this, boom, boom, boom, boom. And it's helped. It's not a cure. But it just goes back to what you're saying, which is like, if you give parents options, and I heard this crazy stat, I don't know if this is true.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
if you take your devices away from a kid, the kid will feel isolated from their other students. The critical mass, I don't know if this is true or not, but it's what I was told, so I'll go with it, was that if you get a third of the parents So like in a class of 20, if you get a third of the parents to agree as well, no devices, the kid feels zero social isolation because it becomes normative.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And so that's where you find yourself, where... there's very little news i think there's a lot of opinion And then the problem with opinion is that feeds the outrage machine. And that's the, you know, the clickometer. The clickometer doesn't go high when you're like, hey, guys, I studied this equation. Right. There's a 50 percent chance of this. Nobody cares about that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's like it's normal. You got a flip phone. Yeah. And you're texting like this to your parents or you're calling, you know. Yeah. And I don't know, it may be worth trying. There was a crazy thing. I don't know, Jimmy, if you can find this, but there was a crazy thing, Eaton College, which is like the most elite, if you will, private school in the UK.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's kind of where like all the prime ministers of the United Kingdom have matriculated through Eaton College. So it's like high school, fancy high school. they sent a memo to the parents for the incoming class. And the headmaster said, when you get on campus with your child, we're going to give you like what is basically a Nokia flip phone.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You are going to take the SIM card out of this kid's iPhone or Android. You're going to stick it in this thing. And this is how they're going to communicate with you and communicate amongst each other while they're on campus. Wow. Mandatory. Mandatory. Mandatory. I thought this was incredible. I don't know what the impact is, but that takes a lot of courage. And I thought, that's amazing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I have a rule with my oldest who's 15. He'll call me. He'll call me. Or even when I call him. Yeah. It's like a grunt greeting. Right. They don't know how to talk anymore. And I'm like, hello? And so I went through this thing where I would just hang up. And I'm like, you know, beep, hang up. And then he would call me back, huh?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then finally I said, I just want you to have these building blocks. They may sound really stupid to you right now, but looking people in the eye, being able to have a normal conversation and be patient in that conversation.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
is going to be really valuable for you people will really be connected to you you may not feel that and you may think this is like lame and stupid what i'm telling you but i was like just try to just try to do it and then what's so funny is like i i would tell this story about like you know our kids go to like um you know very well-meaning private school right and uh
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I almost think like sometimes like, again, we're not teaching necessarily kids to think for themselves. We're asking them to memorize a bunch of things. And one of the things that I worry that we've taught our kids to memorize are like the fake greetings and salutations. So on the one hand, you have what's really visceral, which is, oh.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's either like it's totally, totally bad or it's totally, totally good because it just it amps people up. And that's that's a real bummer because I think like you you don't know what to think anymore.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then on the other hand, you know, sometimes you'll see these kids and they'll get introduced to somebody. Hello. How are you? It's great to meet you. And I'm like, man, this is the most – this is the fakest thing I've ever seen. So you're at these two ends of the spectrum.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I would make fun of my kids sometimes because like, you know, they would say thank you, but they would say like thank you like the queen. They'd be like – Thank you. And I'm like, what are you doing? Who taught you that? You were taught at school to say thank you like that? You could just say thank you.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Thanks, I appreciate that. Just look somebody in the eye, thank you.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah, you had the rotary phone. Yes. Yeah, exactly.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that when technologies get going, you have this little burst. It's like these Cambrian moments. You get these little bursts which are overwhelmingly positive. I don't know what your reaction was, but my reaction when I first saw the iPhone, I was blown away. I think the first four or five years was entirely positive.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
um because it was just so novel like you took this big computer and we effectively shrunk it to this little computer made it half to a third of the cost and lo and behold supply demand just the number of computers tripled and quadrupled and quintupled and so many more people were able to be a part of that economic cycle all positive Then you get a little dip.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And the little dip is when I think we lose a little bit of the ambition of that first moment and we get caught up in the economics of the current moment. And what I mean by that is, you know, the last five or 10 years, I think why you feel this viscerally is... We haven't had a big leap forward from the iPhone of really 2014, 15. And I'm not picking on the iPhone. I'm just like a mobile device.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So what have you had over the last 10 years? You've had an enormous amount of money get created by an enormous number of apps. And the problem is that they are in a cul-de-sac. And so they'll just iterate in this one way that they understand because the money is really good, quite honestly. And the incentives of the capital markets will tell you to just keep doing that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But then I think what happens is something shocks us out of it, and then we get the second wave. So if you go all the way back to look at the PC, the first moment of the PC in the 70s and the early 80s was incredible. You had these people that were able to take it and do all kinds of really interesting things. It was pure. Then you had sort of like the 90s and the early 2000s. And what was it?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It was duopolistic at best, Microsoft and Intel. And what they were able to do was extract a huge tax by putting all of these things on folks' desks. And it was still mostly positive. But it was somewhat limited because most of the spoils went to these two companies and all the other companies basically got a little bit run over.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then it took the DOJ to step in in 2000 and try to course correct that on behalf of everybody, basically. And then what happened was the internet just exploded. And the internet blew the doors wide open. And all of a sudden, if you had a PC, you didn't have these gatekeepers. It actually didn't even matter whether you were running on Intel anymore. You just needed a browser.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So you didn't need Microsoft Windows, right? And you didn't need Intel. And then just the internet just explodes. So we have a positive moment followed by, you know, call it 10 or 15 years of basically economic extraction. And then we have value. I think today it's like we've invented something really powerful. We've had 10 or 15 years that were largely economic.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And again, I think, you know, this is like the problem. I'm going to sound like every other nerd from Central Casting from Silicon Valley telling you this, but I do think that there's a version of this AI thing which blows the doors wide open again. And I think we owe it to ourselves to figure out how to make that more likely than not likely.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Have you been in a situation where you have a translator with the thing in your ear?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Empathy, zero. Because the problem is the person there is giving it to you in a certain tone because it's first person.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah, but like when you're here, it's very hard to feel empathy for this person because it's this person that you're focused on because you're trying to catch it. So you hear the words. I think somewhat of the meaning is a little bit lost. Then you go back to this person and you say something and they're in the same problem that you are. So I agree that the translation thing is cool.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that there are, there's so, like there's just so, there's going to be some negative areas. And I think that there's going to be a lot of pressure on certain jobs, and we've got to figure that out. So it's not all roses. But some areas, if you imagine them—I'll give you a couple if you want—are just bananas, I think. Okay. Okay, so I'll go from the most likely to, like, the craziest. Okay.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Okay, so most likely today—do you know if you know somebody that's had breast cancer— If they go into a hospital, a random hospital in America, and the doctor says, we need to do a lumpectomy, meaning we need to take some mass out of your breast to take the cancer out. What do you think the error rate today is across all hospitals in America? It's about 30%. Wow.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And in regional hospitals, so places that are poor, right, or places that are in far-flung parts of the United States, it can be upwards of 40%. This is not the doctor's fault, okay? The problem is that you're forcing him or her to look with their eyes into tissue and And try to figure out, well, where is the border where the cancer stops?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So for every 10 surgeries, what that means are a week later. So imagine this. You get a breast cancer surgery. They take it out. They send it to the pathologist. The pathologist takes between 7 and 11 days. So you're kind of waiting. Seven of the calls come back, clean margins, you're great. Now go to the next step. Three of the calls, I'm sorry, there's still cancer inside your body. Three.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So these women now go back for the next surgery. But the problem is one of those women will get another call that says, I'm sorry, there's still cancer. And so what is that? That's a computer vision problem. That's not necessarily a problem that can't not be solved literally today. We have models. We have tissue samples of women of all ages, of all races.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's omnipresent and it's basically made to want, you know, to convince you that you need more of that thing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So you have all of the different boundary conditions you'd need to basically get to a 0% error rate. And what's amazing is that is now working its way through the FDA. So call it within the next two years, there'll be an AI assistant that sits inside of an operating room. The surgeon will take out what they think is appropriate.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They'll put it into this machine and it'll literally, I'm going to simplify, but it'll flash red or green. You got all the cancer out. You need to take out a little bit more just right over here. And now you get it out, and now all of a sudden, instead of a 30% error rate, you have a 0% error rate. That's amazing. That's today because you have this computer that's able to help you.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It is the best clip because he's like a totally different person.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And all we need is the will and the data that says, okay, we want to do this, but just show me that it works. And show me what the alternative would be if we didn't do it. And the alternative turns out to be pretty brutal. 14 surgeries for every 10 surgeries? I mean, that's not what the most advanced nation in the world should be doing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Okay, so if you do it for breast cancer, the reason why breast cancer is where folks are focusing is because it gets so much attention and it's like prime time. But it's not just breast cancer. Lung cancer, pancreatic cancer, stomach cancer, colon cancer. If you look at any kind of tumor...
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And it's like a bad diet, you know, like the first few shots of it, the first few bites of it tastes amazing. But, you know, if you eat the full toffee cake every day. For the next 365 days and then for the next year, I mean, you're going to get diabetes and heart disease. So the version of that is like your brain just gets totally fried.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So if you're at the stage where you're like, we need to get this thing, this foreign growing thing out of our body, we should all have the ability to just do that with 0% error, and it will be possible in the next couple of years because of AI. Okay, so that's kind of like a, that's cool and it's coming. I think between years two and years five,
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
you're going to see this crazy explosion in materials. And this is going to sound maybe dumb, but I think it's one of the coolest things. If you look at the periodic table of elements, what's amazing is we keep adding. So there's like 118 elements. We actually just theoretically forecast that there's going to be 119. So we create a little box.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's like it's theoretical, but it's going to show up. And they forecasted that there's going to be 142. OK, so the periodic table of elements, quote unquote, grows. But when you look at the lived world today. We live in this very narrow expression of all of those things. We use the same few materials over and over and over again.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But if you had to solve a really complicated problem, don't you think the answer could theoretically be in this? Meaning, if you took—I'm going to make it up.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
selenium and then doped it with titanium 1% but if you doped it with boron 14% all of these things are possible it's like stronger than the strongest thing in the world and wow and it's lighter than anything so now you can make rockets with it and send it all the way up with less energy like it's all possible so why haven't we figured it out because the amount of energy and the amount of computers we need to solve those problems which are super complicated haven't been available to us
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that is this next phase of AI. So what you said, which is we're going to have these PhD-level robots and agents. In the next two to five years, we're going to come up with all kinds of materials. You'll have a frying pan that's nonstick but doesn't have to heat up, whatever you want. From the most benign to the most incredible stuff, we'll just re-engineer what's on Earth.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
That's going to be crazy. It's going to be incredible. We all benefit from that, the kinds of jobs that that creates. We don't even know what job class that is to work with selenium and boron. Again, I'm making up these elements. Please don't. So the point is that there's – so that's like in the middle phase. So our physical lived world is going to totally transform. Imagine a building –
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
that's made of a material that bends. It can just go like this and nothing changes to it. Why would that be important? Well, if you want to protect yourself from the crazy unpredictability of climate, in the areas where it's susceptible to that, maybe you can construct these things much cheaper. Well, earthquakes. Earthquakes. You could construct more of them.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Imagine in San Francisco, you could build buildings that solve the housing crisis, but do it in a way that was cheaper because the materials are totally different, and you could just prove that these things are bulletproof. So instead of spending a billion dollars to build a building because you got to go hundreds of feet into the earth, you just go 50 feet and it just figures it out.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then the bigger problem is then when you're presented with maybe it's not even the truth but an opinion that you should consider. you get totally shut out of it. And that's like the real problem. You build these antibodies in your body where this other version that says, take a step back and reconsider, it's not allowed. And then if you said to yourself, well, how do you even start?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So that's possible. And I think there will be people that use these AI models to go and solve those things. And then after that, I think you get into the world of it's not just robots that are in a computer, but it's like a physical robot. And those physical robots are going to do things that today will make so much sense in hindsight. So an example, I was thinking about this this weekend.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Imagine if you had a bunch of optimists, like Tesla's robot, and they were the beat cops. They were the highway patrol, okay? Now, what happens there? Well, first, you don't put humans in the way I suspect then the reaction of those robots could be markedly different. Now, those robots would be controlled remotely, so the people that are remote now can be a very different archetype.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Instead of the physical requirements of policing, you now add this other layer, which is the psychological elements and the judgment. My point is that if you had robots that were able to do the dangerous work for humans, I think it allows humans to do, again, judgment, those areas of judgment which are very gray and fuzzy. It'll take a long time for computers to be able to replace us to do that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I really do think so. I think the biggest thing that we have done as a disservice to what is coming is some folks have tried to say that AI is the end all and be all. And I think the better way to think about this is that You know how you used to have to get your spelling right in an email? And now you just don't think about it because Gmail just fixes it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
it up-levels us, right? You used to have to remember the details of like some crazy theory, random detail fact. Now you can just Google it. So you can leave your mind to focus on other things, right? The creativity to write your next set, to think about the next interview, to think about your business, because you're occupying less time with the perfunctory stuff.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think these models are doing that, and they're going to get complemented with physical models, meaning physical robots. And they're going to do a lot of work for us that we have not done or today that we do very precariously. You know, like should a robot go in and save you from a fire? I think it can probably do a pretty good job. They'll have multiple sensors. They'll have vision.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They'll be able to understand exactly what's going on. If something is falling, they'll just be able to put their hand up and just like, you know what I mean? Like if they encounter any person of any body weight, it's no problem. Pick that person up, transport them. Again, it allows humans to focus on the things that we're really, really differentiated at.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I do think it creates complications, but, you know, we have to figure those out. So that's like a kind of like a short, medium, long term.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I worry about them as well. And I think that, like, I didn't live in the agrarian economy nor in the Industrial Revolution. So I don't know how we solve this problem. But we have seen that problem two times. And each time we found a way. And this goes back to sort of like news and politics and like just working together.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Where do you go? You know, like if you're a friend of mine works at Facebook and he showed me threads. We were playing poker last week and he showed me threads. And what's incredible is like threads and X are like the exact polar opposites in some ways. And he was showing me in the context of like how the outrage machine on threads works and the way it works is like.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You know where we are today? Sub 10%. Single digits. Wow. And it's a straight line that goes like this. And that was through an agrarian revolution. It was through the industrial revolution. So it is possible for humans to cooperate to solve these problems. I don't know what the answer is, but I do think you are right that it will put a lot of pressure on a lot of people.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But that's why we got to just figure this out.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I'm pretty sympathetic to that idea. I grew up on welfare. So what I can tell you is that there are a lot of people who are trying their best and for whatever set of boundary conditions, can't figure it out.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah. Yeah. And so if I didn't have that safety net, You know, my parents' struggles I think would have gotten even worse than what they were. Right. So I'm a believer in that social safety net. I think it's really important.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah. The jobs that, like, let's put it this way. If we were sitting here in 1924, whatever, 100 years ago, you know, right in the midst of the turn of the Industrial Revolution, we would have seen a lot of folks that worked on farms. And we would have wondered, well, where are those jobs going to come from?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think that now when you look back, it was like not obvious, but you could see where the new job classes came from. It's like all of these industries that were possible because we built a factory. And a factory turned out to be a substrate. And then you built all these different kinds of businesses which created different kinds of jobs on top of it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And this woman wrote this article about it. But what they'll do is they'll post something that says two plus two equals five. Just that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I would hope that if we do this right, this next leap is like that, where we are in a period where it's hard to know with certainty what this job class goes to over here. But I think you have a responsibility to go and figure it out and talk it out and play it out.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Because the past would tell you that we have a really good humans, when they're unimpeded, have a really good ability to invent these things. So I don't know, maybe what it is, is by 2035, there's a billion people that have traveled to Mars. And you're building an entire planet from the ground up. There'll be all sorts of work to do there.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that there'll be a lot of people that are frustrated with what's happening here.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It all starts with like a group of people that are just like, I'm fed up with this.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Just like what you say is it's so true. But like if you think about what that decision looked like. 400 years ago when that first group of prisoners were put on a boat and sent to Australia.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And you'll get like a million views. And then it'll first start with like, you know, folks that are like trying to gently nudge this person. Actually, you know, I want you to reconsider two plus two actually equals four. You know, and then it builds and it builds and it builds. And this that so there's this like this weird version of how people react to like information. And it tends to be.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
That's probably what it felt like. Yeah. Most people on the mainland, when they were like, cha-chao, were probably thinking, man, this is insane. Right. So it'll always look like that. It'll be easier to rationalize it in hindsight. But I do think that there will be a lot of people that want to go when it's possible to go. And like, look, you know, we're in this studio. We could be anywhere.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
We could be in Salt Lake City, right? We could be in Rome, right? We could be in Perth. You don't know. It's all the same.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So that's an amazing example of an innovation in material science that we have been experimenting with for years. So basically at the core of what you just said is a semiconductor problem. It's a doping problem. Is it silicon germanium? Is it silicon germanium with something else?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And the problem, Joe, is to answer what you just said is a tractable problem that has been bounded by energy and computers. And we're at a point where we're almost at infinite energy. And at a point we're almost at like, what I say is very specific, which is we're at the point where right in the distance is the marginal cost of energy is basically zero.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The marginal cost, meaning to generate the next kilowatt is going to cost like sub a penny. Even with today's stuff, you don't need nuclear, you don't need any of that stuff. We're just on this trend line right now. And Because of AI, we're at the point where to get an answer to a question, super complicated, is going to be basically zero, the cost of that. When you put those two things together,
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
What you just said, we will be in a position to answer. The world will be able to say, oh, Joe, you want instantaneous communication between here and Mars? We need to harden these communication chips. We're going to build it with this stuff, which we simulated on a computer. We made it. It works. It's shipping. We're done. Now, that will still take five and 10 years to do.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But my point is, all these things that sound crazy— are not. They're actually not that crazy. These things are like achievable technical milestones. Everything will boil down to a technical question that I think we can answer. You want a hoverboard? We could probably figure it out.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
No, I'll tell you what I think. Okay, well, maybe before I give you my opinion, I'll tell you the facts. Okay. Okay. Today, it costs about four cents a kilowatt hour. Just don't forget the units. Just remember the four cents concept. 20 years ago, it cost like six or seven cents. If you go and get solar panels on your roof, basically cost nothing. In fact, you can probably make money.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
kid gloves and then people just lose their mind at some point so it's kind of like and then over here I think on X what you find is there's a lot more structural data but then it can easily get lost in the noise because there's just a few things that just constantly consume you know what the algorithms want to amplify and what is important in the moment and I think that finding a way to like probably blend the two is probably what is the best in the sense that there's probably some stuff over here that doesn't make it over here
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So it costs you like negative one cent because you can sell the energy in many parts of America back to the grid. But if you look inside the energy market, the cost has been compounding. And you would say, well, how does this make sense? If the generation cost keeps falling, why is my end user cost keep going up? This is like, that doesn't make any sense.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And when you look inside, we have a regulatory burden in America that says to the utilities, of which there are less than 2,000 in America, we're giving you a monopoly, effectively. In this area of Austin, you can provide all the energy. Now, Texas is different, but I'm just using it as an example. But in return,
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I'm going to allow you to increase prices, but I'm going to demand that you improve the infrastructure. Every few years, you've got to upgrade the grid. You've got to put money into this, money into that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Over the next 10 years, we've got to put a trillion dollars, America collectively, into improving the current grid, which I think will not be enough because it is aging, and most importantly, it's insecure. meaning folks can penetrate that, folks can hack it, folks can do all kinds of stuff. And then it fails in critical moments.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that in Austin, you had a whole bunch of really crazy outages in the last couple of years. People died. In 2024, that's totally unacceptable. So I think as people decide that they want resilience... you're going to see 110 million power plants, which is every homeowner in the United States. Everybody's going to generate their own energy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Everybody's going to store their energy in a power wall. This stuff is going to become, I mean, absolutely dirt cheap. And it'll just be the way that energy is generated. So you have this, but this is not the whole solution because you still need the big guys to show up.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
When you look inside of like the big guys, so like now you're talking about these 2,000 utilities that need to spend trillions of dollars, they can do a lot of stuff right now to make enough energy to make things work. But when you look at nuclear, I would just say that there are two different kinds of nuclear. There's the old and the new.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The old stuff, I agree with you, it's just money and you can get it turned back on. It's a specific isotope of uranium. You can deal with it. Everybody knows in that world how to manage that safely. But then what you have are like these next generation things. And this is where I get a little stuck. And I'm not smart enough to know all of it, but I'm close enough to be slightly ticked off by it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
There's a materials and a technical problem with these things. And what I mean back to materials. Some of these next-gen reactors need a material that will take you like 50 years in America, in the world, to like harvest an ounce. The only place where you can really get it is the moon in sufficient quantity.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You're going to harness this material, then schlep it all the way back to someplace in Illinois to make – I find that hard to believe.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I can find it. It's in an email that one of my folks sent me. But it's like – it's a certain – form of reactor that uses a very rare material to create the plasmonic energy that can generate all of this stuff. And it's just very hard to find on Earth. So I kind of scratched my head. What's the benefit of this particular type of reactor? Enormous energy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So like, you know, a solar cell gets this much energy, you know, a nuclear reactor does this, and like this other thing does that. And it's super clean and... So my point is like these next gen reactors, I think, have some pretty profound technical problems that haven't been figured out. I applaud the people that are going after it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But I think it's important to not oversell that because it's super hard and there's still some profound technical challenges that haven't been solved yet. You know, we just got past what's called like, you know, positive net energy, meaning, you know, let's just like, you put, I'm making up a number, you know, 100 units of energy in and at least you try to get out like 100.01.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And there's probably a lot of stuff over here that doesn't make it over here. A little bit of that diet for everybody probably goes a long way.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And we're kind of there. So that's where we are on these next-gen reactors. The old generation of reactors, I'm a total believer in. And we should be building these things as fast as possible so that we have an infinite amount of energy. By the way, if you have infinite energy, you know, the most important thing I think that happens is you have a massive peace dividend.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
There's, like, the odds of the United States going to war when we have infinite energy approaches zero.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think you're touching what I think objectively to me is the single biggest threat facing all of us today. I escaped a civil war, so I've had a lived experience of how destructive war can be. The collateral damage of war is terrible. Where were you? In Sri Lanka. I was part of the ethnic majority, Sinhalese Buddhist. But, you know, we were, they were fighting Hindu Tamil minority.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I don't know. I don't use it. I don't either. I don't have it. I just saw it in that moment. But when he described how the engagement farming works, it just sounded kind of like ludicrously, you know.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And it was a 20-year civil war. It flipped the whole country upside down from an incredible place with 99% literacy to just a, you know, a struggling, developing third world country. And so we moved to Canada. We stay in Canada. You know, my parents do whatever they could. They really and they got run over by that war.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They went from a solidly middle class life to my father, you know, had a ton of, you know, just alcoholism and didn't really work. And my mother went from being a nurse to being a housekeeper. And it was dysfunctional. It really crippled, I think, their dreams for themselves. And so, you know, they breed that into their kids. Fine.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But that can't be the solution where hundreds of millions or billions of people have to deal with that risk. And I am objectively afraid that we have lost the script a little bit. I think that folks don't really understand how destructive war can be, but also that there are not enough people objectively afraid of this. And that's what sends my spidey senses up and says, hold on a second.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
When everybody is telling you that this is off the table and not possible, Shouldn't you just look at, like, the world around and ask, are we sure that that's true? And I come and I think to myself, wow, we are, you know, the biggest risk of my lifetime. And I think the only thing that is probably near this is maybe at some point in the Cold War. I don't know because I was so young.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Definitely, you know, Bay of Pigs. But it required JFK to draw a hard line in the sand and say, absolutely not. So will we be that fortunate this time around? Are we going to find a way to eliminate that existential risk?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
This is why my current vein of political philosophy is mostly that, which is the Democrats and the Republicans, there's just so much fighting over so many small stakes issues in the sense that Some of these issues matter more or less in different points, but there is one issue above all which where if you get it wrong, nothing matters, and that is nuclear war.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And you have two and a half nuclear powers now that are out and about extending and projecting their power into the world, Russia, China, and Iran. That wasn't what it was like 10 years ago. That wasn't what it was like 25 years ago. It wasn't even what it was like four years ago. I just don't think enough people take a step back and say, hold on a second.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
If this thing escalates, all this stuff that you and I just talked about won't matter. Whether our kids are on Adderall or not or the iPad, don't give them so much Fortnite or material science or Optimus. It's all off the table because we will be destroying ourselves. And I just think that that's tragic.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
We have an enormous responsibility right now for the village elders of the world to tell people, guys, we are sleepwalking into something that you can't walk back from.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Basically, that's where it gets to. Math is racist.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Well, let me add to this by saying we know what the response will be not. It will not be measured. It will not be calm. It will not be, hey, let's get on the phone and talk about it. Right. Like the thing is, there was a long period of time where, you know, America was the leading moral actor in the world. Right. And I think that we spoke from a place of wisdom, but also like earned respect.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But we forget that at the end of the Cold War, it's not that we vanquished the USSR as much as they imploded from within. It was just an economic calamity. They just couldn't afford to keep up with us. And the reason was we had these two edges. We had a technological edge and we had an economic edge. And when you put those two things together, it created a lot of abundance.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You know, we had this thing in, I don't know if you saw this, in the Bay Area in COVID. The city of San Francisco, you know, brought together their board of education or whatever. And they eliminated a bunch of AP classes, including like a bunch of AP math classes. And part of it was because of this reason, because they felt it was exclusionary. And I think what it misses is that
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Now, we can talk about how some of that is not equal, which I also agree with, but it it allowed America to be sort of effectively for a long period of time the top dog. The honest reality is that's not where we are today. We are one of two or three. And the problem with that is that you can't look back in history and try to live your life like what it was like in the good old days.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You know, we're not the high school football star anymore. So we need to live in a more modest way, in a more reliable and consistent way with neighbors that have also for themselves done well and just realize that they have their own incentives. And when you tell them to do something, they're not always going to listen.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So if we don't understand that and find a way to de-escalate these things, what you said is going to happen. Something is going to be one step too far. a reaction, a reaction, a reaction, and then eventually somebody will overreact. And that is all just so totally avoidable. And it just frustrates me that we objectively don't understand that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
We sweep it under the carpet and we talk about all the other things. And I understand that some of those things, all of those things, let's say, matter. But at some point in time, nothing matters. Because if you don't get this right, nothing matters. And I think we have to find a way of finding people that draw a bright red line and say, this is the line I will never cross under any circumstance.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think America needs to do that first, because it's what gives everybody else the ability to exit stage left and be OK with it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So I think you just said the key thing. This may be super naive. But I think part of the most salvageable feature of the military industrial complex is that these are for-profit, largely public companies that have shareholders. And I think that if you nudge them to making things that are equally economically valuable or more, ideally more, they probably would do that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So part of – when you look at the primes, the five big kind of like folks that get all of the economic activity from the Department of Defense – What they act is as an organizing principle for a bunch of subs underneath, effectively. They're like a general contractor and then they have a bunch of subcontractors.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
There's all this other stuff you could do to kind of like even the starting line for folks. But if you rip out things like AP math, like take a step back, like in 8 billion people in the world, what are the odds that there's only literally one Steve Jobs or literally only one Elon Musk, meaning capable of that kind of execution? I suspect that there's maybe two.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
There's a bunch of stuff that's happening in these things that you can reorient if you had an economy that could support it. So for example, when you build a drone, okay? what you also are building a subcomponent, a critical and very valued subcomponent. All the navigation, all the communications, all of it has to be encrypted. You can't hack it. You can't do any of that stuff.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
There is a broad set of commercial applications for that that are equal to and greater than just the profit margin of selling the drone. But they don't really explore those markets. If, for example, we are multi-planetary, I'll just go back to that example.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I will bet you those same organizations will make two or three times as much money by being able to redirect that same technology into those systems that you just described. Hey, I need an entire communications infrastructure that goes from Earth to the moon to Mars. We need to be able to triangulate. We need internet access across all these endpoints. We need to be real-time from the get-go.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
There's just an enormous amount of economic value to do that. So again, we have these very siloed parts of the economy that are limited by what we know. And what we know is part of what you just said, which is we built these things and then some people convince others to use the things that we built.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think instead of saying there's some crazy nefarious plot to always go to war, instead if we say, if you make the thing and you could sell it to a different market and make more money, would these people do it or are they hell-bent on war? I think it's more that they would just do it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So then it reduces war to a very different kind of business. I think it's smaller. I think it's more kind of drone-oriented. I'm not saying that war will go away. There's no utopia where war goes away.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Unfortunately, I think that we're always going to be fighting for some resource. So the last 30 or 40 years, all these forever wars, we were fighting over energy, effectively.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Can I ask you a question? Sure. I don't do drugs, so I don't understand. What's the step before it? What causes you to want to do fentanyl?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And so like part of the human experience, like part of our social responsibility as adults is how do you make it so that that second Steve Jobs can find a path to do stuff?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Is there something to do to motivate folks to not do the party drugs?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
What about what happened in Oregon? You know, like Oregon, they legalized it, and now they un-legalize it?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I'm not saying AP math is the answer, but I'm saying there are people that I remember when I was growing up, I wasn't particularly good at anything in school. But there were a few subjects which I was just like, wow, like the little time I spent in school, I was like, I felt a little safe. You know, I could connect. It built up a little bit of my self-confidence and I didn't feel so marginal.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Right. So that didn't fail because of the actual drug policy. Right. But more of the other social policy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I'm sure there's a lot of kids like that for some very small subset. Maybe that's what that kind of class is. It pushes them to a boundary that they didn't know was possible. You're teaching them stuff. That's really cool.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Are there European countries that do this well? Portugal.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And it's all fentanyl? Or is it all... Oh, it's all kinds of things.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So I understand what the intent is, but then the byproduct is there's a small group of folks that get shut out, and then that person that could be that Steve Jobs-like person, that Elon Musk-like person, is held a little bit back. And I think that that hurts all of us. So you've got to find a way where— We're doing just a little bit better.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I wanted to learn about marijuana, the market. But you can't process the money, I think, right?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah, it's like Breaking Bad, like bricks of cash and all of these places.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
A couple of companies, I remember the reason I know this is a guy came and pitched me on some business and he was the software for all that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think the company went public and I just realized it just went sideways because nobody wanted to touch it because they didn't want to build rails for that economy, which didn't make much sense seeing as, to me at least, just because if the laws say it's legal, then it should all be treated equally. But then the problem, I think I remember them telling me was that federally, it's still gray.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I remember the... The problem that somebody raised, I read this in an article, was you need to make it more legal than it is today so that you can get folks to put some version of a nutritional label on the thing and show intensity, right? Because the intensity is not regulated. Right.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I have this weird psychosomatic – guard that developed. My father was an alcoholic, and I didn't drink at all in my teens, in my 20s, and mostly in my 30s. And then in my mid-30s, I started drinking wine. And I love wine, and I think I can handle it. And I really enjoy it. I love it. I do too. But I cannot drink hard alcohol. The minute that it touches my lips, I get severe hiccups.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I mean, like debilitatingly bad hiccups. Really? Any kind of alcohol. So you think it's psychosomatic? I think it's completely psychosomatic because it makes no logical sense. Right. If the tequila touches my lip, I just start hiccuping like crazy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And it's like this weird protective thing that I think my brain has developed because my dad used to drink some stuff that would like, you know, make you blind. Like moonshine. It was like 150% proof the guy would just chug it. I mean, it was...
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's alcohol. Yeah. And it's like, then there's some flavor around the alcohol.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Exactly. And the amazing thing about wine is you can go on these journeys where like when I first started to buy wine, I did what every knucklehead does, which is like, oh, if it's expensive, it must be good.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And you start down that road and it's just so dumb because the amount of money that I spent on stuff that was marginal, but it had a good label and it had a good pedigree. And then when you discover and you learn, like, I remember, like, my wife's Italian, so we spent a lot of time in Italy in the summer with our kids.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And when we were there, you find these incredible Italian white chardonnays, okay? In the summer, I'm just going to be honest with you, there is nothing better to drink in the world. It's better than water, right? It's cold. It's cold. It's refreshing. It's got a great bouquet. But these bottles are 40, 50, 60, 80, maybe maximum 100 euros, max.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It was when he was current affair. It's when he's doing like gossip and stuff.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then you'll spend $1,000 on some stupid white Burgundy from France, and it tastes like half of it. The other great example of this is like Chateau Petrus. And, you know, I don't want to get in trouble with the Chateau Petrus guys, but I'll just be honest. Those bottles cost, you know, $2,000, $3,000, $4,000, $5,000, $6,000. You see some in restaurants, $19,000. I've never bought one.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I've tasted it once because in Vegas I had a host. And once he gave me a thing. He says, Chamath, you can use this for, you know, like your dinner. And I'm like, well, is there a cap? You know, and he's like, this time, no cap. And first I was like, God, I must have lost a lot of money. When they say no cap for $19,000 wine. So then I said, fuck it. I'm just going to try this.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So I went to Caesars and it was like $4,000 or $5,000. I mean, I would never buy this in a normal, but I got it because it was free. Joe's okay. All this buildup in my mind. This is, oh my God, this is going to be ethereal. It's going to be ambrosia. It was not ambrosia. Yeah. Whereas you can find these other ones that are made by, you know, folks that just put their entire lives into it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You taste the whole story. I just think it's incredible.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The real skill is being able to know price value. And when you know it, it's so satisfying because it's like, oh, this is just delicious. And then when your friends enjoy it, they're like, oh, my God, this is delicious. And I'm like, yeah, that's 80 bucks.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I'm like, well, it's very hard to find. So then the skill is like, it's funny, I'll tell you, this is how bad wine has gotten for me. Meaning like, I love the story. I love the people. I want to support the industry. So I went to register for an alcohol license at the ABC in California.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Because I was tired and frustrated of trying to buy retail. Because you have to go through folks that have their own point of view. And I was like, well, if we just become, you know, we as in like me and a friend of mine. And so we set up a thing. We set up a little LLC. I filed the paperwork. And it's called like, you know, CNN. J Wine LLC, you know, my friend, me and Joshua.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And we're able to negotiate directly with the wineries. And we're able to get it from wholesalers in Europe or in South Africa or in Australia. And it just allows us to buy a bottle, try it if we really like it. Thursday nights at my house is always poker. We serve it to our friends. They like it. Then we can buy a couple cases I can share with my friends. And, you know, you get it at wholesale.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
No, I look like a retail store. I could be like Amazon, you know?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They could buy a case. They could buy a few bottles. That's a little bit harder. So you have to have a more personal relationship. But then the really good stuff, you can buy a few cases and then, you know, pass them on to your friends. And I don't know. I think wine's incredible. And with food, it's incredible. It is incredible.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I went to a couple of these wineries and I just asked them just out of like, just explain to me how you got there. And all I could think of was, man, this is way too complicated. But these folks, it's like animal husbandry. They're breeding this vine with this vine, but then they're going to take, you know, cleave off this little bit.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So it's a breeding program over 10 and 20 and 30 years, and it's like, this is really complicated.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
A friend of mine started a company that's making like potatoes and he makes like these ginormous potatoes like this. It's an incredible thing because like the yield is through the roof and like, you know, his I think vision is I'll be able to feed the world in a cheaper and more abundant way. But it's all this engineering. He hacked the chromosome of the potatoes. That's incredible.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And like it generates a huge potato and it generates a seed. I didn't know this, but potatoes don't have seeds. In order to plant more potatoes, you chop up the potato into like quarters or eighths and you stick the potato into the soil. Oh, he's playing God. And so he's like, no, this is dumb. I'm going to make a huge potato and I'm going to have the potato have a seed.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think that it used to be the case that if you went to—in high school—
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Then I'll just take the seed and I'll plant it in the ground.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I don't know. But he's going after potatoes and then he wants to go after fruit. I love fruit. But fruit tilts me because every time I go to a store—
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
sometimes like you'll get like their seasons were like you know like white nectarines and white peaches maybe like one of the most incredible fruits ever created but if you get it in a bad season it's just like unedible yeah they're dull they're dull they're terrible mangoes are the same i love mangoes and when you see like these mangoes in the summertime like i don't know where europe gets their mangoes but this is probably one of the best features of europe like they have these mangoes that are just like this well they're organic too oh they're just they're just incredible
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Have you ever worn- Glucose monitor? Glucose monitor? No, I haven't. I wore one for 90 days. And my wife, when she was younger, well, she runs a pharma company, so she has a Proclivity for science, obviously. And she thinks about a lot of this stuff scientifically. But she also broke her back when she was 11. So she's very sensitive to inflammation.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So she's hacked a lot of food so that she can minimize inflammation. I wore this thing, and I was totally blown away. The things that I thought were healthy for me... My body was like, this is radioactive. Like what stuff?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So like the way that I ate rice or quinoa, I would have like a small amount of rice or I would have brown rice or I'd have black rice or I'd have quinoa because I was like, oh, it's more protein. It didn't really matter. It had the same, my body reacted with this massive sugar spike. The minute I cooked it off, put it in the fridge, waited 24 hours and ate it the next day,
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
No glycemic load whatsoever. Same with potatoes. Potatoes. I found that pasta, if I made it more al dente than what I was used to, no glycemic load. And the problem that's frustrating- More al dente, meaning less cooked? Less cooked. Has a totally different reaction in my body than if I make it soft and smushy. So I've trained my body to have really al dente pasta, and I see that-
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
the glycemic load is much lower. I think just the point is like the food supply in the United States, I think it's the most precarious it's ever been. It's brutally hard to figure this out. I mean, is everybody supposed to get a glucose monitor? And then figure out what little things, you know, trigger insulin spikes. Well, that's not possible.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then even if you do find out, how do you get it in a cheap, affordable way? I mean, no wonder, like, everybody's, you know, really struggling with this.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
If I take a picture, like, I mean, I try to work out and I take pretty detailed, like, what's my BMI? What's my muscle mass? What's my fat percentage? And I always take those readings right before I go. And when I look afterwards... And I don't do anything when I'm there. I swim in the sea when I can, like when I'm on vacation or whatever. I walk a lot, but nothing else. No weights, no nothing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
My muscle mass stays the same. My fat percentage goes down. I look healthier. And I feel really great. And all I do is I just eat what's in front of me. I don't think about quantities, whatever. But when I'm back in the United States, so I get to be there, call it six weeks a year, right? But when I'm back in the United States, I have to go back on lockdown.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Because like a lot of people, you know, I had this thing, like if you look at a picture of me in Sri Lanka, I look like old Dave Chappelle. I was like this. I was just a total stick figure. Within one year of being in North America, in this case in Canada, when you look at the school pictures, I was fat. Couldn't explain it to you.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And my parents were making the same things because they wanted to have that comfort of what they were used to. I don't know if it was the food supply or not, but, you know. It has to be. It has to be. It has to be.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then my whole family has struggled with it, you know. So I think that there's something. And then when I go now to Italy as a different reference example, it's like it's the best shape of my life.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I'm curious to see what Bobby does if Trump wins in this whole make America healthy again. I don't exactly know what his plans are.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And it's impossible to teach my kids healthy eating habits as a result of this. The food... In the United States, it's just – it's everywhere and it's beating into you that this is a cheap way of getting caloric intake. Right. And it is full of just all these stuff you can't pronounce.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You would be really cool with people that were going to like specific high schools to get really good at something. Remember like that show on TV, Fame? Yes. Right. And so, well, that was more about the performing arts. Right. But that was amazing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Do you remember in like the 90s and 2000s where what we were told was fat was bad? Yeah. And like you would see sugar-free and I would just buy it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I was like, sugar-free, I'm doing the healthy thing here. This is great. Margarine. Margarine. Or then I would see fat-free and I'd be like, oh, I'll do that. Yeah. And it turned out all this stuff was just...
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They have an incredible story. Should I say it or we can just— Sure, yeah. They have this incredible story that they tell about what happened. And what they say is in the 80s, when you had these mergers, one of the mega mergers that happened was tobacco company with food company. There was two of them.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And a lot of the scientists started to focus some of their energy on taking that skill—I'll just put that in quotes—of making something very addictive and transposing it to food, right?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's like, you know, if you knew a kid that was going to one of those schools, what you'd say is, wow, you are incredibly talented in this one specific thing. Go push the boundary of that and see what happens. I think we owe it to ourselves to say that. Yes. Right. There's 330 million Americans in the United States. Right.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's like, okay, if I'm at RJR and I'm used to making cigarettes, how do I think about structurally building up something that wants you to eat more but now instead of smoking, instead of a cigarette, it's a Twinkie or whatever?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And a lot of the food science that we have in America is built on the back of a bunch of these mega mergers where you had these scientists go and build super, quote unquote, addictive food. You know, and that was a failure of the, I mean, obviously it was a failure of the capital markets, but it was a failure of public health.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I smoked when I was younger. I found it much easier to stop smoking than it was for me to cut out sugar. Wow. Cutting out sugar is basically impossible.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You should fact check this because I may get the number wrong, but there was something that came out very recently about the percentage of the U.S. food stamp system that goes to soda. Yeah. And it was like 10% of the total budget or— Something nutty like that. It's like some ginormous amount of money is just basically giving folks sugar water.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And you wonder why now the solution is just to give everybody on the back end of it ozempic.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I don't even think you have to regulate it. Think of what has happened because of companies like Uber Eats and DoorDash, as an example. What have they done? And I'll tell you why I think this is important. Those guys have gone out, and Cloud Kitchens, there's three companies. They have bought up every single kind of warehouse in every part of every city and suburb in America.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And what they put in there are these things that they call ghost kitchens. So that when you launch the app and a lot of the times when you get a drink from Starbucks, it's not coming from the actual Starbucks down the street. It's coming from a ghost kitchen. Why? Because they centralize all the orders and it creates an economy of scale. Why am I telling you this?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Don't you think that if we created a bunch of different ways for people to figure out what they're super good at, things are better, not worse? What is the answer? Do you think things take a huge step back? You have more Joe Rogans. You have more Kevin Hart. You have more great actors. You have more great directors. But you also have more engineers. You have more scientists.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that there is a way for food stamps to sit on top of that infrastructure and just deliver food.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think that they are delicious. And once a year I have a Big Mac. But I think if you're going to tie it to something like a government subsidy, at least the government should have a conversation with themselves that says, well, we can ship them all of this healthy food and, you know, change a bunch of boundary conditions in these folks' lives. Right. I've seen it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I know what it's like to be overweight. It sucks. Your self-confidence is negative one. The way I dressed, the way I felt, it just took an enormous amount of work to overcome it. And you're still left with it. Then there's the physical pains. Then there's the internal issues that you create for yourself. This is not a win. And so I get it that the hamburger tastes good.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But this is where the government, I think, has a responsibility to say, look, we're going to spend hundreds of billions of dollars a year. So let's spend it in a smart way. We're not going to give you pop and soda anymore. And we're going to start introducing some fruit, some vegetables, some fiber. Like, why can't you do that?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
That's like a very reasonable thing to do, especially if on the same hand, the other hand of the government is going to go and negotiate insulin prices and metformin prices and GLP-1s. Right.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
For 10%, I think. I think what Bobby said is the cost of GLP-1s' current course in speed would be $3 trillion a year.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And for $300 billion, you can give everybody food. By the way, you can use this ghost kitchen infrastructure to give the food in a prepped way, right? So you can even make life super simple for them. The idea that you would spend $3 trillion, we don't have $3 trillion to spend. But we have a responsibility to make sure that people don't kill themselves with food.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And by the way, I think that they should be allowed to make money. But what I'm saying is in a free market, every actor is allowed to act rationally. And actually what you want is everybody to have their own incentives and to act naturally. That's when you get the best outcome. Because if you're acting with some shadow agenda, you're not going to necessarily do the right thing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So my point is in this example— The government's job in this narrow example is to get the best health care outcome. Because if they're doing any form of long-term planning, it's pretty obvious. Like we are hurtling to a brick wall on this health care issue with respect to people's health. You don't have a solution.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The only solution cannot be to medicate and then triple and quadruple the budget deficit that we already don't have a path to pay down.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You have more doctors. And you created a way for them to just go deep in something where their curiosity took them. That's okay. What's wrong with that idea?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
If you want the subsidy, you need to get this brain implant. It would not be a good place.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Well, it's an enormous disservice to folks if... we don't expose an alternative path. Okay, we're spending this much money. We spend so much money in all kinds of random stuff. Like just a simple example that we saw this past week, $50 billion spent between rural broadband and chargers. We have no rural broadband and we have three chargers. No, this is the data. That's $50 billion. So-
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Okay, that's not the $300 billion that... Explain that, what you mean by that. So there was a... So in Congress, when they come together to pass these bills, sometimes what happens is there's a lot of horse trading, right? And you get what's called a Christmas tree bill, which is like everybody gets to hang something off the Christmas tree.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And the crazy part of the United States is these little baubles now are $10 billion here, $50 billion there, whatever. So... We passed a few years ago something that was meant to get rural broadband into thousands of people's homes. And initially it was given to SpaceX and Starlink specifically. And then I think it was pulled back.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And they said, you know what, there's a better, quote unquote, better way to do it. And there's other folks that decided that the better option would just be to like lay fiber. Now, I'm just going to, this is not a judgment, I'm just going to show you something. The thing is, like, if you are like in Kansas from here, okay, between here and Kansas is like a big distance, right? It's like this.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
When you're in orbit, it's just here. Right. It's just infinitely shorter distance. So just at a practical level, solving that problem technically is way better through satellites. Fine. They make, I think, what was the right decision. They unmake it. And so they say, we're going to go and figure out a way to lay fiber, whatever. They've laid zero fiber.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So there's these thousands of people that were promised broadband that you can get for basically $100 a month or less now, and instead they're spending upwards of thousands and thousands per home and haven't delivered any.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
That's 42. Yeah. And then the other example was a $7 billion program to install EV chargers, $7 billion, and they've managed to install three. So all I'm saying is if you add the two together, that $50 billion, that's one-sixth of what Bobby Kennedy was talking about in terms of giving people organic food.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So maybe we can't give everybody organic food, but you can get tens of millions of people, right? Start with the 40 million people that's on SNAP. You can get maybe 10 million of those people, get them organic food right away. So there's all of this waste.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
All we got to do is just like focus a little bit, take some of these dollars that are just like falling into the seat cushions, it seems like, and just reallocate it somewhat intelligently into the things that really matter.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
All you do is plug it in. From this thing that was a little bit bulky, it is so beautiful and simple. And, you know, you've seen it. You just plug it in, and it auto starts to rotate, figures out where it is. The app comes up. It shows you this, you know, speed, and then you're just going. And I've used it in all kinds of situations, like where, you know, I'm traveling. I bring it with me.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's never failed. And then I think, man, this is like, it's a hundred bucks. It's less than a hundred bucks. It's crazy. And then, you know, in a year or two, you'll be able to run your cell phone over this thing. Yeah. This is crazy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So how much do you think it really takes? To give every American just a Starlink dish. Pretty fucking cheap. It's very cheap. Well, it wouldn't be $42 billion. I can guarantee you that. And by the way, the cost of that would basically fall through the floor if you put in an order for 50 million of these units. Right. You know? Right. SpaceX would make them for like $8. Right. You know what I mean?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And it's fast internet too, which is even crazier.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah. There's all of this stuff that... we should do. We just need a few folks, I don't know, that can either course correct or just can shine a light on it. I mean, it's like this thing where I'm like so optimistic, married to enormous fear and like, you know, just like a little, I kind of go back and forth between these things.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think there's a step before that, which is a lot more palatable. I think the thing with, I thought about your version and the problem that you state is the key problem, which is how is this model trained? Who got their hands on that core stuff, the weights and the values of that? Who decides? And at some point, there is already today in AI models a level of human override.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's just a natural facet of how these things are. There is a way to reinforce the learning based on what you say and what I say. It's a key part of how an AI model becomes smart. It starts off as primordial, and then Joe and Chamath and all these other people are clicking and saying, yes, that's a good answer, bad answer, ask this question, all this stuff. Who are those people?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think at scale we haven't figured out – we haven't seen it yet, but it will be when the incentives are that high.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But there's a step before it that I think can create a much better government. So it's possible today, for example, to understand – have you ever done a renovation on your house? Yes. Okay. So you make plans. Yes. You go and your architect probably pays an expediter to stand in line in City Hall. There's a person that goes and reviews that plan.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They give you a bunch of handwritten markups based on their understanding of the building code. You can't use this lead pipe. You need to use aluminum. This window's too small, all this stuff. You come back. You revise. You go do this two or three times on average to do a renovation, and then they issue your permits.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Now an AI can actually just ingest all the rules, knows exactly what's allowed and what's not allowed, and they can take your picture and instantly tell you, Joe, fix these 19 things. You fix those things. You go to the city. You can show that it maps to all the rules. So you can streamline government. You can also point out where they're making decisions that don't map to what the rules say.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
That, I think, is going to be a really important first step because it allows us to see where maybe this administrative state has grown unwieldy, where you got to knock some of this stuff back and clean up some of the cruft because there's rules on top of rules and one conflicts with the other. I bet you there are things on the books today that are like that. 100%. We have no way of knowing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Right. But I do think an AI can tell you these things and say, just pick which one. It's A or it's B. And I think that that starts to cut back a lot of the difficulty in just making progress. Right. You know?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They create incentives, and then those of us in private industry go out and try to meet those incentives or take advantage of them. That's very normal, okay? And a well-functioning government creates very good incentives. An incredible example of this is in the 1950s, do you know what the GDP of Singapore was? No. It was the same as the GDP of Jamaica.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then you fast forward 70 years and you understand what good governance looks like.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Well, we're going to probably talk about AI today, but let's just touch on this just in this one second. We are going to create computers that are able to do a lot of the rote thinking for us. What that means is, I think... The way that humans differentiate ourselves is that we're going to have to have judgment and taste. Those are very defining psychological characteristics, in my opinion.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
were thrust into a spit of land with no natural resources, they had to become incredibly well-educated and industrious. And so Lee Kuan Yew was able to create the right incentives for government to do a good job. They pay their civil servants incredibly well, but then also for private industry to show up and do the rest. And it works incredibly. You can do that in the United States.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The thing that we would benefit a lot from is if we could just point out all the ways in which like there's either too many laws or laws are conflicting. You can at least have a conversation about batting those back. And the second is if you look inside of private equity, there is one thing that they do, which I think the government would hugely benefit from, and it's called zero-based budgeting.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And this is an incredibly powerful but boring idea. What private equity does when they buy a company, some of them, the best ones, they'll look at next year's budget. And if they say, what should the budget be? Well, guess what's going to happen, Joe, in your company? Everybody runs and says, I need X for this, Y for that, Z for this. And you have this budget that's just ginormous.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Instead, what some of the best private equity folks do is say, we're starting with zero. Next year's budget is zero. We're spending nothing. Now, let's build it back up meticulously block by block. So somebody comes in. Okay, what is it exactly that you want to do? I want to build an interface that allows it. They start saying something. No. Okay, what do you want to do?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I want to upgrade the factory so that we can make a more high yield. Okay, done. You're in. How much do you need? Okay. One by one by one. And if you go and you do that inside the government, what you probably would find is that same group of people would probably enjoy their job a lot more. Their hands would be on the controls in a much more directed way.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
We'd spend a lot less because a lot of this stuff probably just goes by the wayside and we don't even know, you know? and people would just be more able to go and work. You could do what you wanted to do. I could do what I wanted to do. Elon could do what he wants to do. There was a thing, I tweeted it out today. He cannot get the FAA to give him a flight permit for Starship 5 and 6.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So they're waiting on dry docks, right? They're slow rolling the approval, right? It takes him less time to build these starships now than it does to get government approval. That's what he said. Meanwhile, the FCC, which is a sister organization to the FAA, fast tracked the sale of 220 radio stations in part to some folks that were foreign entities.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
right before an election that touched like 160 million Americans. When you look at that, you would say, how can some folks cut through all the red tape and get an answer quickly? How can other folks be waiting around for something that just seems so obvious and so exceptional for America? And there's no good answer. I don't know what the answer is. I don't think any of us know.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Meanwhile, there's these two people stuck in space.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think they would, too. How do you not? Well, I read this article where they interviewed them. Now, this could be the party line. I don't know. But they're like, this is great. It's my natural place. I'm happy here.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Well, yeah. A friend of mine went to space. The founder of Cirque du Soleil, Guy Laliberte. And he brought a super high- Google talks about like it's already over.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah, February 21st. It hasn't happened yet. Yeah.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But what that means is if you go back to how school is taught, what you said— is very limiting for what the world is going to look like in 30 years. You know, in 30 years where you have a PhD assistant that's in your pocket that can literally do all of the memorization, spell checking, grammar, all of the fact recall for you,
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But these poor people, you know, and... So my friend that was up there said it was incredible. He has this funny story where he was a smoker, still is a smoker, but... This was like 20 years ago, so he was going up on like a Soyuz rocket. And he shows up, I guess in Siberia is where they do the launches. And he was really stressed out because he had to stop smoking and he had to stop drinking.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And he shows up and the cosmonauts are smoking. Oh, no. They're like, oh, it's totally fine. Don't worry.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
No, no, no. I'm saying on the ground while they were trading. Oh, boy. So they go up. He does eight days. He comes back down. He took these incredible high-res pictures of like all the parts of the earth. He said it was the most incredible thing. But, you know, when you get back, he's like, I was ready to get back.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It could have been that. It could have just been the gravitational fields. It could have just been an orbital path.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
That's a great question. I think the question is, what would we do if we knew?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But see, I mean, it's all a physics problem at that point.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Isn't this like the perfect reason why being multi-planetary just makes a lot of sense? Sure. Like in any like, for example, would you get on an airplane if they said, hey, Joe, this is the best airplane in the world. It's the most incredible. It's the most luxurious. It has the best weather. You can surf. You can. But there's only one navigation system. And if it goes out, but you never do that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Right. Would you ever get on that airplane? No. So, you know, I think we owe it to ourselves to have some redundancy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But to say like, this is fragile and it's not forever, so create some redundancy. I mean, I was raised Buddhist. I'm not that religious in that way, but I'm kind of weirdly spiritual in this other way, which is I do think the universe is basically, it's littered with answers. you just got to go and find out what the right questions are.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Teaching that today is probably not going to be as important as interpreting it. Like, how do you teach kids to learn to think, not to memorize and regurgitate? So we have to flip, I think, this education system. We have to try to figure out a different way to solve this problem because, like, you can't set children in this generation up, our kids— To go and have to compete with a computer.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So to your point, like, are all these natural phenomena on Earth, you know, the question is, okay, if that's the answer, well, the question is like, do we want to be a single planet species or do we want to be, do we want to have some built-in redundancy?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And, you know, maybe 100 years from now that builds on top of what happens in the next five, we'll have discovered all kinds of different planets, right? That's an amazing thing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But isn't that so, like, inspiring? Like, this idea of, like... Yes. Right. Yes. You know?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The mental model is if an alien showed up today, would humans by and large drop all of their internal issues and cooperate together? Perhaps. Perhaps. I would hope that the answer would be yes.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Well, so I think that one way to think about AI is that it is – a supernatural system in some ways. So if we can just find a way to cooperate and harness this and see the bigger picture, I think we'll all be better off. Like, again, killing each other is just so barbarically unnecessary. It doesn't solve anything. All it does is just makes more anger.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It creates more hatred because what's left over is not positive. And I think that we need to be reminded of that somehow without actually living the experience.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Well, so I think that, you know, why are a lot of people coming to America? A lot of the reasons, some are clearly political persecution, but a lot of the other reasons are economic, to your point. And so if you can create economic abundance generally in the world— That's, I think, what people want. Most people want, as you said before, a good job.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They want to come in and feel like they can point to something and say, I made that. I feel proud of that. They want to hopefully get married, have some kids, have fun with them, teach them what they were all about. And, you know, then our swan song and we all kind of, I don't know, get reborn or not.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The computer is going to win. So what can't the computer do is, I think, maybe a reasonable question. And I think the computer... in a lot of cases, can't express judgment, it'll learn. But today, it's not going to be able to the same way that humans can. It's going to have different taste, right?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And you have this data point. I said this before, but the most important thing that has happened— is that in the last four or five years, we have severely curtailed the likelihood of war in the nominal sense. I think Trump was able to basically draw a hard red line in the sand on that stuff.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And the underlying reason was because we had enough economic abundance where the incentives to go to war fell. we had just a complete rebirth of domestic hydrocarbons in America. Whether you agree with it or not, my point is it is quite clearly correlated in the data. As we were able to produce more stuff, so economic abundance, we had less need to go and fight with external parties.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So I do think you're right. This reduces it down to we need to find ways of allocating this abundance more broadly to more countries. Meanwhile, that one crazy thing that you can't unwind and go back from, you can just never go there. And you just have to make sure nobody believes that that is justified. Because in a nuclear event, I think that that's not what happens.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
When... I've always been a liberal, and I think I should define what liberalism used to mean. It used to mean absolutely no war, and it used to mean free speech, and it used to mean a government that was supportive of private industry. Try your best. Go out there. We'll look out for you. Come back to us if things go haywire. That's an incredible view of the world.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So the way that we interpret things, the same way that you motivate people, like all the psychology, all these things that are sort of like the softer skills that allowed humans to cooperate and like work together, that stuff becomes more important when you have a fleet of robots. And so if you go all the way back to school, Today, the school system is unfortunately in kind of a pretty tough loop.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think what happened was when I was given a choice, I would vote Democrat or I would support Democrats because I thought that that's what they stood for. And I didn't really understand Trump. And so what happened was I got too caught up in the messenger and I didn't focus enough on the message. And I didn't even realize that. I didn't realize it in 2016, but I don't think many people did.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then in 2020, I got lost in it. But probably by 21 or 22, I started to see all this data and I said, hold on, I am not being a responsible adult the way that I define responsibility. I am not looking at this data from first principles and I need to do it. And when I did, what I saw was a bunch of decisions that turned out to be pretty smart.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The problem is that because he's the vessel, he turns off so many people with his delivery. And I think this is a moment where the stakes are so high, you have to try to figure out what the message is versus what the messenger is saying. Or look to somebody else that can tell you the message in a way that maybe will allow you to actually listen to it. That could be J.D. Vance.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It could be Elon Musk. It could be RFK. There's all kinds of surrogates now because I think that they have realized that there's a lot of value in these messages. We need to have multiple messengers.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So that folks don't get tilted and go upside down so that the minute the one person walks in the room and I had to challenge myself to go through that process. And at the end of it, I'm like, wow, he's the only mainline candidate here that will not go to war. And just on that point. It's like very unique times creates strange bedfellows.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's sort of like one thing that kind of like always like pops out at me. Like, why are they working together? Why are they cooperating? I always think like, what's going on here? And when I saw him and Bobby align, you know, Bobby is a very balanced view of Donald Trump. Here's the good. Here's the bad. Even now, even with everything that's on the line for Bobby and Bobby's agenda, he's
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
He's quite honest about Donald Trump's positives and negatives. But they both get along. And one of the things, and probably the most important thing, where they were sounding the drum from day one is, under no circumstance will the United States go to war. I just think we should observe that. People should have an opinion on that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
He's like Neo in The Matrix. He's like dodging these bullets. For now. You know?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The other thing that people need to, I think, think about is... The domestic policy agenda of both the Democrats and the Republicans are within error bars.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And what I mean by that is when push comes to shove, they both, whether it's Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, they have to work through a very sclerotic Congress, which means that very little will ultimately get done if you just look at the track record of all these past presidents. You typically get one piece of landmark legislation passed in your first two years, and it all just gets unwound.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's happened from Clinton onwards. Bush had one bite at the apple. Obama had one bite at the apple. Trump had one bite at the apple. Biden had one bite at the apple. So the American political system has a really incredible way of insulating itself.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So if people would just take a step back and look at that, a lot of the policy agendas that both of them espouse are going to be very hard to get done. There'll be one thing—you know, maybe they both do something on domestic taxation. Maybe they both do something on the border. But the likelihood, based on the past, is that they'll get one of these things done and then not much will be done.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Look, teachers, I think, are going to become the top three or four important people in society. And the reason is because they are going to be tasked with teaching your kids and my kids how to think, not to memorize. Don't tell me what happened in the War of 1812. You can just use a search engine or use a chat GPT and find out the answer. But why did it happen? What were the motivations?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
This is why I think folks then need to think about, okay, what are the super presidential powers then where they can act alone? One area where they can act alone is they can issue executive orders. And that can direct the behavior of governmental agencies. Okay, so people should decide what they think about that. Do you want a muscular American bureaucracy? Do you want a more slimmed-down one?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Do you want one that has bigger ambitions, more teeth? Do you want one that is zero-based budgeted? They're pretty stark on those things. And then foreign policy... I think, you know, one camp is much more in the view that, you know, we are the world's policemen and there's a responsibility that comes with that. And one says, we got a lot of problems at home.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
We're not getting pulled into something abroad. And I think people need to decide about that. But other than those two threshold issues, my honest opinion is that we're in error bars between the two of them. One will cut taxes by this much. One will increase taxes by that much.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that if I give both of them the benefit of the doubt, I think both of them will have to act on the border. I think that Donald Trump has had a clearer view of this issue for much far longer. I think that Kamala has had to shift her position to make herself more palatable to centrists.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But I do think that both of them will probably have to act because I don't think what's happening today is sustainable.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Mm-hmm. I mean, I – yeah, I have – I don't know whether it's a conspiracy per se, meaning – but I do agree with the outcome, meaning I remember very vividly – My parents took up the whole family, three of us, myself and my two sisters, to Niagara Falls, and then we crossed the border to Buffalo. And we applied for refugee status in America as well. We didn't get it. We were rejected.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Part of what's happened is we used to have news, and you could make a good living in news, and journalists were really sort of the top of the social hierarchy in some way, shape, or form, because they were this check and balance. And then somewhere along the way, this business model focused people on clicks, and nobody told the rest of the world that the underlying incentives were going to change.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And when we went back, we got a tribunal hearing in Ottawa where I grew up. And I remember that it was in front of this magistrate judge. So the person comes in with the robes and the hair and everything and you sit there and they hear— They have the wigs up there? All of it, yeah. The wigs. And then they sit there and they hear your case out. And my father had to defend our whole family.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
If it happens again, what would you do differently or the same? And those kinds of reasoning and judgment things, I think, were still far ahead of those computers. So the teachers have to teach that, which means you have to pay them more. You have to put them in a position to do that job better. And then back to what you said, I've lived this example of ADHD in my family. I have five kids.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Here's, you know, what our life was like. Here's what we did. And I remember just crying from the minute it started. That's all I did the whole time. It seared in my mind because, like, you know, your life is right there. It's like a crucible moment for your whole family. If they're like, I don't buy it, off you go. We go back and I don't know what would have happened.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Fortunately, obviously, it worked out. And then you go through the process. I became a Canadian citizen. Then I moved to the United States to get on a visa. Then I become an American citizen. I have an enormous loyalty to this country. And so when I think about Americans not getting what they deserve before other folks, it really does touch me. I get very agitated about that idea.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's not that those folks shouldn't be taken care of in some way, shape, or form, because I was one of those people that needed a little bit of a safety net, right? We needed welfare. We needed the places to go and to get the free clothes and all that stuff.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But you have to sort of take care of all of the people that are putting in the effort and the time to be here and followed the rules and stood in line. Like when I came to the United States, man, I came on a TN visa. Every year you had to get it renewed. You had to show up. And if the person that was looking at you said, Chamath, out, you're gone, Joe. Then I had to transfer to an H-1B visa.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
My company had to show that there wasn't an American that could do this job. And then we were able to show that. So I've lived this experience of an immigrant following the rules. And just methodically and patiently waiting and hoping. And the anxiety that comes with that. Because it comes with tremendous anxiety. If you ask people that were on H-1Bs in America, there was a website.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I don't even know if it exists anymore. But we would check what, you know, because when you apply for a green card, you get an application date. And man, I would sweat that website every other week. Hey, did they update that? And it would be like four years in the past. And I'm like, I'm never going to get my green card. My visa is going to expire. I'm going to have to move back to Canada.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But I still play by the rules. So I just think it's important to recognize that there are a lot of folks that play by the rules that are immigrants to this country. There are a lot of people that were born here that have been playing by the rules. And I think we owe it to them to do the right thing for them as well.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then try to do the right thing for some folks that are coming across the border because there probably are some of them legitimately are escaping some really bad stuff.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
One of the kids was diagnosed with it. And unfortunately, what happens is the system a little bit closes in on you. So on the one side, they give you a lot of benefits, I guess. I put it in quotes because you get these emails that say if they want extra time, if they want this, if they want, you know, they'll give you a computer, for example, to take notes so that you don't handwrite.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that as long as people can explain what they're doing for these other folks that you just mentioned, I think for a lot of people, for 50% of the population that leans red on this topic, you could at least explain to them. The problem is that there is no explanation. There is $150,000 home credit that Gavin Newsom was about to give. I think he vetoed it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But that bill somehow gets to his desk. And is there a bill that says we should have better food for the food deserts? Did that bill get passed? So there's clearly a way for state legislatures to do what's right on behalf of the folks in their state. So if we just had a little bit more balance and then if we were able to shine a light on those things...
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
A lot of the people that live here that contribute would feel better about where things were going and wouldn't feel like the whole thing is just rigged.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Messenger message. Just take a step back, though, and if you were just the average Joe citizen, I think an important thing to just notice is why are all these totally different people acting as a team? I just think it's an interesting thought question for... I don't have an answer, and I'm not going to plant an answer, but just ask yourself, like, why are all of these people cooperating?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think... The 2024 election is a lot about the traditional approach to governance and a very radical reimagining of government. And I think that's what effectively will get decided. The traditional approach says, we're going to create robust policies. We're going to work sort of top-down, you know, this muscular foreign policy, muscular domestic policy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The government's going to play a large part of the economy. And we're going to try to right some wrongs. The radical reimagining says... We're going to go back to a more founding notion of this country. We're going to have a very light governmental infrastructure. We are going to cut back a bunch of the rules.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And we're going to take a little bit of a step back on foreign policy so that we don't end up in a situation we can't pull back from. In that lens, it's very different. In the lens of actual policy, I honestly think that it's pretty much six of one, half a dozen to the other. But in that first lens, they're really markedly different choices. And, you know, we'll see.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So those feel like aids to help you, right? But then on the other side, you know, one person was very adamant like, hey, you want to medicate. And my ex-wife and I were just like, under no circumstances are we medicating our child. That was a personal decision that we made with the information that we had knowing that specific kid. All kids are different, so I don't want to generalize.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think that, you know, I've met him and spent time with him. I've also had lunch with Kamala. She's very kind, very nice person. Donald Trump, very funny, very kind, very polite. Like he talks to you. And I just was like, wow, this is like totally—and exactly what you said. I was like—I was expecting something totally different.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think, though, that the part—at the core, part of what—where the media goes crazy, I think, I'm guessing, is that there's a part of him as well that's like an entertainer. I mean, he's better than—he's as good as any comedian.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
He's on point. He's got rhythm. He knows how to land. So there's a thing that he's doing when he's on stage, which for the audience, I think, is no different than going to a show or a revival or something. You're seeing a star.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But then if you're looking at him as Donald Trump the person, I think the media really gets out of – they get tilted.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And everybody's got flaws. His, I think, are his exist and are well described. But I do think that they I think there's like a couple of good examples. You know, one example that bothered me was the Charlottesville press conference. When I first heard the media depiction of it, I was really upset because of what I thought he said. It turned out he didn't say it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
In fact, not only did he not say it, he said the exact opposite. And then I was really frustrated and a little bit angry because I thought he was never lying to me. The filter was lying to me.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I'm not paying for those people to lie to me. I'm paying for them to actually give me the transcript of it so that I can decide for myself. I think that's part of a responsibility of being a cogent adult.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And so then they make their own bed. They dig their own grave a little bit because I think the trust in the mainstream media is the lowest it's ever been. I think way more people trust you. Way more people trust us to tell a version of what we think is happening because you're not going to lie. And you're interested in just showing the clips and then just debating. What did he mean?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
What did he say? Why did he say this? Why did he say that? By the way, the same goes for Kamala because now, you know, the domestic political machinery is going to try to characterize her as well. Cherry pick comments, she says. So my point is I think we have to suspend this. But it's not balanced.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
By the way, I read this. Is this true or not, but the co-host was her sorority sister? Yes. That is true? Yes.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then the crazy thing, Joe, what we did was we took the iPad out of the kid's hand. And we said, you know, we had these very strict device rules. And then COVID turned everything upside down. And you're just surviving. You're sheltering in place. Five kids running around. They're not really being, you know, taught by the schools. The schools won't convene the kids. And so what do you do?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I mean, look, I was trying to be charitable when I said that. Like, I think that there's, like, I'm going to assume that both people are smart, they believe what they believe, they're both trying to do what they think is right, they both want to win. Okay, let's take that off the table for a second.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The filters that then try to give them that message will try to pervert that truth for their own best interests. And I think what they have decided, the mainstream media, is their best interests are better served through one, i.e. Kamala, and less well served through another, i.e. Donald Trump.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So if there's ever been a moment where it's time for all of us to show up and be a grown-up, try to get the source material, try to think about things from first principles, I'm telling you it is the most consequential election of our lifetime. And the simplest reason why is that the president decides to hit the button on the nuclear football.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So just imagine for one second, irrespective of what your politics is, who do you want to hold that thing? What do you want them to do? Under even the most excruciating pressure in the world. And I think what we want to find is someone, at least in that very narrow moment, will be a JFK-like decision. I will block everybody else out.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It is entirely about my desire and wish for how I want America to be known and I'm going to protect my children and my grandchildren. You cannot touch the button. You can't get close to the button. I think we're a lot closer than people think.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think there are people that may not... talk about it, but I think that they've lived it. I know Elon's lived it, where he's always underwritten things based on... The great thing about being in Silicon Valley is that there are people that I have the honor and the luck of knowing, like him, But I didn't really try to learn from him until 2022, if that makes sense.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Meaning, there were all these decisions that he made that I would reductively reduce to, that's a smart business decision. And it had nothing to do with business. He was always leading from, what are my core moral beliefs and let me act on those. Like the money never mattered. He never did anything to live that experience. He loves his friends. He loves his family.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It took me a decade of knowing him until I started to listen to that and to really hone in on that. So he's an example. Then there are folks that are a little bit older that have gone through it. My father-in-law has gone through it, ups and downs and ups and downs, and he's built an incredible business.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And he's had to face tremendous hardship where he's had to underwrite, well, what is really important? Am I an honorable person? You know, is my word my bond? When you shake my hand and we do a deal, it is what it is.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, if I can, you know, make X, but it's way too much, and if I can make half as X, but it's more, makes my, he makes drugs, you know, life signs of drugs, make them more accessible, should I do? He makes those decisions. And so you live, you see his morality play out in his actions. So I think now I have three or four people in my life, but I had to listen.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And before I chose not to listen because my ego said, hey man, you're the best.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The upside, I think, is that you can... Start to really focus on things that you care about. The downside is if you don't know what those things that you care about really are, you're going to waste a lot of time.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, I bought a piece of the Warriors. That was really cool. I was like a 10% owner of the Warriors. I had a press release from the NBA. And there was like two players on the team at the time that were older than me. That's pretty weird. And I made some amazing friendships with them. When we won the championships, you know, we would go to Vegas. We would kind of like party together.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Don't get me wrong, like an incredible experience, especially for, you know, an ugly nerd that had no social life. Do you know what I mean? So I took advantage of that because... It's like filling a jug of water, right? That jug had always been empty. I was never invited out, right? So, okay, I thought, now I'm invited out. Obviously, it's because, you know, the position.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's not like, you know, we grew up together or whatever. But I would get invited out. Okay, so every now and then, maybe more often than not, I'd just pay for the dinner. Whatever, it doesn't matter. I'm out. I'm in the mix. I'm in the game. But then the jug fills up. And then you're like, wait a minute.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Because you think like when the jug is two-thirds full, oh, don't worry, it's that extra third that's just going to fix it all. It's true. So you just go through these cycles. So, I mean, that was a cool thing. You go after material possessions. That doesn't do anything.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You could put it on a map, March of 2022, I'll never forget it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's these are all very hollowing things. I think like the thing that, like I said, like, you know, the problem with things like social media, what they do is they glorify these things. We all fall for it. I fell for it. So if when you have money, you go and you buy these things because you think this is what happiness looks like or, you know, success looks like.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And it's not it's none of that stuff. Now, nobody listening to this. will believe it because they all everybody wants to live that over and over because it's not like a very destructive life lesson. You know what I mean? Like to have like a Laura Piana sweater and not need it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But But the bigger message is more important, which is, if you have a sense of what's important, you can kind of see the things that are really happening in a much more
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
um they're more in focus so like you know i would say like now that i'm 48 i'm much more aware of like what does it mean to be an american what is my job as an american businessman as an engineer as an entrepreneur it's not all of this other superficial garbage because it adds nothing
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's to actually allow the system that rewarded and benefited me to be just a little bit better in terms of the contributions I give to it before I'm no longer part of the system in 50 or 60 years. That's very motivating for me now. And this idea that my kids can go and join Team America and do cool stuff and find happiness, find a great husband, find a great wife, have a bunch of kids,
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
and live a good life and know what their dad went through and have a better sense of that. That seems like an additive thing I can add to the system to be a good example for my friends when they start to go through their own struggles. that they can kind of course correct a little bit faster than I did. You know, I mean, I went through a divorce, right? So that's a terrible thing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, after all that, I went through a divorce. You know, I was very lucky to find my wife. But my point is that my first marriage, when you get a divorce, that's a death in the family.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Literally a death. And then you are complicit in the commission of that death. You know, it's the husband and the wife. I mean, there are only two people responsible. That's right. And so I see a bunch of my friends who are, you can see some veering and teetering. And now I can sort of intervene a little bit and just kind of cajole and nudge and, you know, help them.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I'm not saying that these are all really grand, highfalutin things, but they actually address the inner part of what I needed for a very long time. I just didn't realize it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
then, frankly, most everything, especially when you think of how it compounds to that husband and wife's children. Oh, yeah. It's the key thing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Exactly.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's not clear to me how connected they are, but the first part of what you said I do agree with, which is that we have silently allowed this insidious war machine to take over large parts of the government. Yes. And what's so interesting about this is that it actually, I would have said, was more riddled inside the Republican Party. Yes.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's an emptiness somewhere else. It's a jug that they're trying to fill. And they think that the closer they get to filling it, the problem is like your mind just switches the jug to an even bigger jug. And then it gets closer to being full and then it switches again and it switches again. I think the much better way to think about this problem is,
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
is what am I doing with my time that actually helps the place that gave me an opportunity be better and the people that live beside me be better. That is a really morally valuable statement. And then you can kind of like look at all the things and all the problems that make everybody mad in the United States as an opportunity to actually do them better. And that is useful.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And when you have money, the one thing that you can do is you can accelerate that change much faster than folks that have to take a much more arduous path. For sure. And I think we've lost that. There's not enough people that basically say, okay, you know what? The United States has given me so much. Now, how do I give back, quote unquote?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And you don't necessarily have to give back by going into nonprofit or going into government. You can just acknowledge the problems that are there and go fix them. And you can fix them by starting for-profit companies, which are always the best way. And I wonder like, why don't more people do it?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think that that is, I think that what's happened. So I'll give you my framework. You can tell me maybe where you agree or disagree, but. It is important for all 330 million Americans to take a step back and acknowledge this one truth. And I think that it is completely a canonical statement that is inviolate for being an American.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We are the single most important country in existence in the world. We are the most important country today. We must be the most important country tomorrow, period. If you say that enough times and you believe it, then there are two things that underpin that, and I think only two. We are the single most vibrant economy in the world, and we are the single strongest military in the world.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And if you can agree to those two things, which I think should be non-controversial, if you say, meaning, like if I said to you, hey, Tucker, we make the best oranges and burritos in America. that does not yield the most important country in the world. If I said we make the best shoes and the best flat panel TVs, that does not equate to the most powerful country in the world.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But if I said to you, we have the strongest and most vibrant economy and the strongest and most powerful military, that is the strongest and most important country in the world. And then there is only one thing that gives you both of those two things, which is technological supremacy. So go back to these examples.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But it turns out over these last few years, especially since this MAGA takeover, this hostile takeover that Donald Trump effected, which I think is enormously important in historical context. But it's more within the Democratic Party now. There are these neocon warmongers that want to connect the dots between people suffering and their own economic opportunity. And I think that that's very scary.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
If I said to you, we write the best books, those books could be incredibly powerful, but it does not give you technical supremacy. If I said to you that we have the most abundant energy, oil fields, nat gas, it's important, but it does not give us technological supremacy. Those that get there will be in a position to create the most vibrant economy.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
They'll take that money and then create the most powerful military. They'll put those two things together. They'll be the most powerful country. So I think today, sitting here, January of 2025, we are in an existential risk of losing our place in the world.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And the reason is that we had people, we have people from the inside trying to sabotage our economy effectively and trying to sabotage our military capability. And they do that not explicitly, but they do that because they are in positions of leadership and they fundamentally don't know what they're doing. And this is what needs to get called out.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I think what we need is this wholesale reform of the people that are at the levers and in the controls of these things. The lack of economic judgment, the lack of military judgment is ruining America's ability to be the most important country in the world. We are, in Silicon Valley, I think it's fair to say that we have had a lost decade.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And when you look underneath why, what are the two most or three most or four most incredible technological achievements that the Silicon Valley has created in the last decade. You're hard pressed to find it. So in one example, you have Elon. He's created reusable rocketry. He's created an entire global mesh of communications infrastructure. He's created electric cars. That's an incredible thing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And he's done that with one hand tied behind his back, meaning fighting the government, local, state, federal, at every single turn over the last 10 or 15 years. What have the rest of us done? We've created AirPods and Instagram Reels. Why? I think a lot of people fell into the same lull that I fell into. We had people pushing back constantly, we got distracted, we wasted time.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, we took an entire cadre like, like, like, look, engineering is actually very much like professional sports, Tucker, like there are Michael Jordan's in engineering. Okay. And there are many people that are not very close to Michael Jordan, you know, couldn't even make a JV scrub team.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There is that crazy distribution of capability. And let's just say in Silicon Valley, there's 5 million engineers. If you add up all the companies and all the people, maybe that's a lot, but I don't know. I can tell you that there's at least 25 or 50,000 of them that are like Michael Jordan-esque capable. And instead, what we told these people is, hey, don't win six championships in eight years.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Don't be the most prolific player ever. What we told them to do was like, hey, you can dribble down the court, but don't dribble too fast because you'll make these other people feel bad. Hey, you know what?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You can do a couple of layups, but don't do too many layups because you should actually pass the ball so that these other people we hired because the team photo looks better, you know, give them a chance to score. You did all of these dumb things. Then team management would come down and say, you know what? I actually think the goal should be to play wiffle ball.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then you take Michael Jordan off the basketball court and you make him play wiffle ball. That's what Silicon Valley did. We took all this incredible talent. We got distracted by the money, right? Because what really did happen in the Valley? What did happen is all the billionaires became deca billionaires and centi billionaires, right? The wealth went through the roof.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The innovation went through the floor. So we got lulled into this economic complacency. My gosh, I'm so much smarter because I'm so much richer. No, you're not. No, you're not. I'll give you a different example.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But I think that there was some sabotage, meaning... or maybe sabotage is not the right word, but there were traps that were laid out and we all fell in them. The DEI trap, the woke trap, all this kind of stuff that were distractions to core innovation. I'll give you two examples that paint the picture. I'll bookend it. I'll give you a Silicon Valley bookend.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I think that whenever you see that, you have to push against that. Humans... should not be at war we should not be fighting and killing each other it's just a simple foundational moral principle that i think we all have to live by you just cannot go there and um you have to push back on every avenue of people that try to take you there i couldn't agree more
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The beginning of the bookend is in the early 2000s. There's an incredible professor, Jennifer Doudna in Berkeley, and she pioneers CRISPR, which is the ability to edit genes. Let's take that off the table whether you think it's morally right or wrong for a second, okay? It could be a tool. It could be a weapon. I grant that.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But it is undeniably a tool that sits in the toolbox that we call technological supremacy. Over the next decade, what Silicon Valley managed to do was embroil themselves in IP lawsuits about who actually owned it. What China did was take the open source awareness of it and pioneer it. Was that smart?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Whether you agree or you disagree, should that toolbox be in our toolbox where we can meet it out? Or should it be in China's toolbox where they can decide?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Where if all of a sudden there is some disease in the future and it requires this very precise form of gene editing and only they can do it, and now a state-sponsored entity in China is the one that provisions a cure for 8 billion humans around the world, that will give them tremendous economic power. Was that is that smart? For America to have done that? I think not.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I'll give you a different example, which is just today as you and I sit here. President Biden issued an EO. And what the EO said is executive order. AI is going to be critical. And so we want to give the ability for federal lands to be used for AI data centers. Okay, now you're cooking. This sounds smart. Let's go read the fine print.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And by the second or third paragraph, what it says is, however, we need to think about the diversity and equity inclusions of said data centers. And, no, hold on. And you have to basically give preference to clean power. Well, is that the same clean power that was essentially made impossible because of permitting issues and environmental impact studies?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You can't just build solar farms that you want to. You can't build wind farms in America if you want to. You can't build nuclear reactors because they won't let you. These are not technological limitations. These were regulatory limitations. Those are just two examples that just show you. You cannot do what's in America's best interest right now because people have forgot. They've lost the script.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
They forgot the priorities. Guys, the priorities are we need to remain the most singularly powerful economic and military entity in the world. The way you do that is through technical supremacy, period. I'll give you another two examples just to, you can tell me if these are boring, but. No, no. Saudi Arabia is doing an incredible job. Why? They're monetizing their oil.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
They are doing very strategic things with the capital. What they've decided is they're going to allocate money that they take from selling oil to build a global data center infrastructure for AI. That's really smart. And when you look at Saudi Arabia on a map, you think, oh my gosh, this is very smart. Why? Because they sit right in this artery between Asia, Europe, and Africa.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
This is critically smart. But what is the one thing that they need that they don't have? It's AI chips. Now, AI, just to break it down for your viewers, think of AI as two buckets. Okay, bucket number one is where you train the brain. Okay? Think of AI as a brain. Bucket number one, you train the brain. Bucket number two, you use the brain to make decisions. Okay?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The chips that we make to train the brain are under export control. Right? We don't want folks to train their own brains necessarily unless we can govern them. That's a Department of Commerce decision on export licensing. The way that we use the brain is a different kind of chip, and we have some export controls there. What will Saudi eventually be forced to do? They're an ally of America.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
They want to do the right thing, but they have a responsibility to their people to try to become the most incredible economic and military power in the world. They're going to go and buy the chips from the people that will actually sell it to them. They'll look east, of course. They will look east and they'll find it in China. Yet a different example.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
If you look at Meta, Meta has poured tens of billions of dollars to training a brain, an AI brain that's called Lama. That's Meta's efforts in AI. And it's open source. It's wonderful, actually. My companies use it. It works. It's high quality.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
OpenAI, which is the private closed sourced competitor to Meta and Llama, also has an AI brain that they've trained, you know, GPT, ChatGPT, you've used it probably. They've also spent tens of billions of dollars, in part coming from Microsoft. Meanwhile, In December, a Chinese company open sourced a model where they spent tens of millions of dollars.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And in many cases, that digital brain is smarter than both meta and open AIs on many dimensions. So two orders of magnitude cheaper. Well, what do you think that means for the other 182 countries around the world that wants to do something in AI? Are they going to take the $10 billion version or are they going to take the $10 million version? They're going to take the $10 million one.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And when you unpack, well, why did it cost $10 billion?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It costs $10 billion because of all the roadblocks that we put in front of companies to make the things that we need to maintain our technical supremacy. So I'll give you some examples. So for example, one of the things that China chooses to not do is they don't really respect copyright law.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Now, I'm not saying we should violate copyright law, but I think it's important to acknowledge that there is a... technical overhang that it creates in training these brains to try to filter out content that the New York Times tags or Fox News tags and says, don't learn on this. You're not allowed unless you have a deal with me. That creates an enormous layer of expense.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Because I had to take a step back and actually figure out how much of this was actually me and my preparation and my process or my dark passenger. And here's what I mean by this, because I thought about this a lot. I think we all have a dark passenger. So when you are born, you're kind of like this... body that has the capability to do anything.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
How do we judge that issue? Today, if you ask somebody, It's a pretty simple conversation. It's not nuanced. It's do you believe in copyright or do you not believe in copyright? I think it's a much more nuanced question.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
For the sake of training these digital brains, if there was an economic relationship that we could create, isn't it better that our digital brain is smarter than these other ones and that we make it as cheap as possible? If you ask that question, a lot of people would say, gosh, that's a nuanced question.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's neither an easy no or an easy yes, but on the margins, I would say yes, knowing that there are these impacts. I'll give you a different example. It takes all this energy to build the data centers. Why does it cost so much? Let's just say you wanted to use solar panels. Is it that the solar panels are expensive? No. Is it that the ability to do the interconnects are expensive? No.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's that building that facility had a multi-year environmental impact study, umpteen lawsuits, all kinds of indirection and misdirection from all of these independent actors who believed that they were pursuing their own priorities, and there was no release valve that said, I appreciate and respect the smelt that you're trying to protect or the land grouse. But this is bigger than that.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We need to make sure we maintain our technical superiority. That data center is going to be used by the NSA to protect America. So it needs to go up in nine months. No ifs, ands, or buts. Right now, we don't have the ability to say that. Or if we do, it's not clear who should say it. And so all of this time costs money. All of this complexity costs money.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And the output are practical costs of building these things that are just two orders of magnitude bigger than our competitors.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, you know, we talk about this, but we don't say it enough. But the genetic diversity of all humanity is minuscule. So that I think I interpret that as the capability of all humanity is pretty incredible. But you have this huge distribution of outcomes. And part of that are the things that happen to you as you're growing up, right? Your lived experience, right?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
2020 was like an incredibly prolific period for me. I'd wake up out of bed and I was doing deals and it was like I had the world in the palm of my hand, it felt like. I was moving markets every time I communicated publicly. That was incredibly dizzying and it had the exact opposite effect on me that it should have.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There is nothing that the Western countries can do that will equate in any way, shape, or form the impact of what China and India decides to do. We do not live in small bubbles. There is no glass bubble that sits on top of the United States. We all share an ecology. That ecology is extremely complicated and nuanced, and it's a global one.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And the reality is that India and China collectively together have way more impact than what you and I are going to do by becoming vegans.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I think the reason why, for example, like we have, again, so we have lost so much ground. The California wildfires are an example that lays us bare. We should have 50% of the American population on solar panels and battery walls today. The reason, it's nice to have that you do it for climate change, but the reason is resilience.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The reason is so that you can power yourself in moments of calamity. The reason is so that you can make sure that you can take care of your family, cook food, desalinate water, whatever it is that you need to do.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's just like the practical reality.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And instead we make it this sort of like moral blanket that you have to wrap yourself in. Everybody then takes a view and all it does is retard progress. So I guess what I'm saying is we spend way too much time getting distracted on fringe ideas and we need to recalibrate.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We need to be and we need to remain the most singular, muscular power in the world, which comes from economic and military supremacy, which comes from only one thing, technical supremacy. So you have to find a way of enabling those 50,000 Michael Jordans that exist in America to cook. Let them cook. That's what you need to do.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, of course. Sorry, this is my last one. One of the big pushes in AI is in robotics. And just to double-click into a robot, a robot moves through these things called actuators, okay? And one of the things that actuators needs, one of the ways that they generate mechanical motion, 3D planar mechanical motion, is through the use of magnets, permanent magnets.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And permanent magnets are different than the ones you and I play with or what our kids play with. They are made from these things called rare earth metals.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And rare earths are a misnomer. They are not rare, but they are abundantly available in the earth. There is an incredible supply of rare earths in California. You could not for the life of you get a permit in California, no matter how clean, how green, to mine those materials to make sure that we could make magnets so that we could make the robots so that we maintained our technical supremacy.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's the nature part, not the nurture necessarily. And nature gives some people a very dark passenger, right? Some of them will then commit crimes. Some of them will become murderers. Some of them will become drug addicts. Some of them, you know, will... have this litany of things happen to them.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That's how that decision, I think, should get made. We want technical supremacy in the next five to 10 years. There's going to be a huge wave in robotics. America needs to be at the forefront. America needs to make them. We need to understand how to program them. Our robots need to be smarter. So there's an AI track, right? There's a mechanical engineering track.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Okay, well, there's a mining track. Let's get the materials. Let's make sure that we are beholden to nobody. so that we can make them. By the way, these are all great paying jobs if you are able to actually get them permitted. And when push comes to shove, when it's like, yeah, get the rare earths out of the ground and make the permanent magnets, can't do it. Why?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You're going to spend 13 years in permitting hell in California to try to get that done? So and I know this, the reason I know this is that I started a business to make sure that China does not have access to the only supply of rare earths. And I initially tried to do it in California, impossible.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I invested in one business that actually had an old mine that we were able to get back online through a bankruptcy process and blah, blah, blah, but it's not nearly enough. So I went to India and I was able to get a deal done with the Indian government
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And what they were able to see was the strategic rationale of making sure we had access to not only the rare earths, but to also to make sure that there were subsidies so that they would compete on the global stage cheaper than China. And now I can bring them back into the United States to make these magnets. Would I like to do that in America? Yes. Can I? Impossible.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I'd be sitting around twiddling my thumbs for a decade. The guys in India did that deal with me in less than 18 months. They understand. There's an escalation point where they'll sit down and say, Chamath, what do you need? What makes sense? And I say, well, sir, here's what we're trying to do. Here's why it's important.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Here's why having a global supply chain that's independent of China is just important. It's competitive. It's good for everybody. They're like, okay, great. X, Y, and Z. Do the following three things. Build a plant over there. We'll make sure that we support you. Here, we're just going to a morass and die.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yes, yes. So the other crazy thing about that Biden EO is why couldn't you have just stopped the EO at that first paragraph?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We're in charge. We have more nat gas and oil in the United States. I don't know if you saw this, Tucker, but there was a piece of data that came out this week, but our reliance on foreign oil is almost entirely gone. Oh, yeah. Meaning like almost like to where we don't even need to buy it anymore. Not just that we make more than we import, but where the imports will soon go to zero.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
In my case, my lived experience gave me this thing where I have always battled this insecurity that I've just felt I'm basically worthless. You're a kid, you come here, you don't really fit in. You try to kind of make... a social life out of everything else that you're supposed to do doesn't really work, right? And so that creates a chip on my shoulder.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That's an incredible statement about the energy independence of America. It's the single most obvious way to, by the way, to guarantee peace.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
If you're not fighting over that critical resource, it's going to be very unlikely you're going to go to war, which if you look past the last four or five wars, the trillions of dollars and the hundreds of thousands of American lives, what were they all about? Oil. And now we have the ability to power those data centers. So should data centers be built in a fair, predictable way on federal land?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, because it feeds the technical supremacy we all need. Now, by the way, there is a conversation to be had as, okay, great, when you have all this economic abundance, how do you share it more? I get that. But at least you're in a position to have the conversation.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So back to this though, but like, you know, if you're able to build these things, I think what Biden should have done is just say, hey, listen, folks, do your best, get the energy because it exists, use nat gas, use oil, and we will figure it out after we've won. That feels like leadership.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But it's not rooted in any reality.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's just... It's rooted in moral grandstanding.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's incredible that you mentioned air conditioning. So back to one of these ways where I was like, after 2022, how can I just get back to basics and do the things that I do well? One of the projects that I started with this incredible mechanical engineer was we set out to rebuild the air conditioner.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And when you look at air conditioners, the heat transfer mechanisms can be made much, much more efficient. And you don't have to use this horrible coolants. And so we have... a working version now, it's like our second prototype. We're probably two years away from getting something working. But when that works, by the way, we've started a process to figure out how do we sell it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But this is again, Tucker, it's like, if I tried to sell it to a home, the number of people that want to touch that thing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It will take me an extra $150 million and an extra, extra 150. It'll take 100, 150 million to build it. It'll take an extra $150 million and an extra seven years.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah. What is it that I'm supposed to do?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I don't think those rules were passed by people even to give them the benefit of the doubt. By one degree removed, folks that even have an understanding of physics.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So there was probably a very smart, capable lawyer representing some smart organization who knew that this was something that they could write in to slow people down. But what people need to understand is it, again, it just slows down our ability to remain number one.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I don't think that they want to wreck the country as much as I think that they have lost the global context. I don't think they understand that we are in an existential risk of no longer being number one. And I think that they also don't understand the implications if we are not number one. You need to just look at the UK.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And it was this sort of thing where I always felt I was on the outside looking in. And then when I, you know, worked at Facebook and then left, and all of a sudden in my early 30s, I had, you know, more success and more money, to be honest, than I ever thought I would have. I spent a lot of time, a decade basically, feeding that insecurity, buying things, accumulating things.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
If you want to have a very simple and visible picture of a white Anglo-Saxon Protestant nation completely losing itself, totally losing the economic war, losing the military war, losing the technology war, and fighting a fringe issue war, you need to just look there. And people should ask themselves, is that what we aspire to?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's so much worse. You're much better off, to your point, being in a developing nation on the come up than you are being in a... 100%.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So the thing that we need to do, I think, as a Western set of nations is we need to understand and agree on the fact that governance over this last decade has totally and miserably failed by focusing on these fringe issues and by losing sight of these global priorities. I'll give you a different example.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
At the end of the global financial crisis, Canada emerged as the healthiest G7 country out of all of us. They were doing phenomenally well, low debt to GDP, phenomenal growth. And then over those intervening 17 years, they focused on all kinds of fringe issues, rampant open immigration, poor allocation of risk capital inside of Canada.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
They've allowed this incredible flight of human capital to the United States. And now today, if Canada were to join, the United States, it would be poorer than Alabama on a per capita basis.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So what has happened in Canada?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, my dad passed away 10 years ago. My mom now comes to see us. So I rarely go back. Actually, I'm going to be back in February for a little bit. I've always felt like a fish out of water in Canada. I've loved it for many reasons. I think that it had had some principles back then that I think are very legitimate and I think should exist in the United States.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The most important being a capped cost of higher education. I spent $12,000 a year to get an electrical engineering degree from a place called the University of Waterloo, which globally is as good, frankly, better than MIT. If I had to be in the United States and if I had gotten into MIT, which I probably would not have, but had I been able to, I'd be $100,000 or $200,000 in debt.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so had I not had this lottery ticket for me pay off with an IPO and working at Facebook, I don't know where I would be today. That's crazy. So there are things that Canada, I think, and we should acknowledge that does really right. That is probably the most important thing that it does right.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I think the idea of a state-sponsored healthcare system, it's implemented horribly poorly, but there are elements of that where I think, especially around sort of capped costs, which I think are important, meaning, you know, in the United States, a healthcare CEO was telling me, when you look inside of an EMR system, the electronic medical care system, let's say, Tucker, you're a doctor and you did a knee surgery, you would have a hundred different prices attached to you.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And to be honest with you, if I'm being really honest with myself, look, I built a really successful investment business by all numerical accounts, but I would say for me, it was a lost decade. I didn't do anything. And I got to a point in 2022 where all of that stuff, so much of it, had to be stripped away and I had to look at what was left and rebuild from fundamentals. I had an incredible wife.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
depending on the plan, depending on the insurer. That's dumb. You are one person. Those are one set of hands. That's one surgery. It's one quality. The idea that one person is lucky enough to pay $1,000 deductible and the other person has to pay 50,000 is an egregious market failure. It's just egregious.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So Tucker Carlson, the best knee surgeon in America, if he charges 2,000, then he charges 2,000 for everybody. That seems fair.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yes, I think that— you need to have competition. I think you need to have there's a hybrid that the United States could implement that is not NHS or the Canadian system. But it's not just a pure free market free for all. It's a little bit in between. And let me describe what the in between parts are. Medicare is an incredibly important insurance program in the United States.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think it stands to reason that Medicare should have its own PBM. If Medicare was able to negotiate an extremely aggressive price for drugs, it sets the boundary for what is allowable for everybody else. And for folks that are 65 and older, then now they have a very viable alternative to use that. It also creates transparency around the variation in pricing, number one.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Number two, there needs to be a way where a private insurer can build up some credit for doing things today that may only pay off for that employee in the future when he's no longer an employee. So for example, you worked at Fox.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
should the Fox Insurance program have put you on a statin, I'm making this up, have put you on a statin in your early 40s to help you manage your, I'm not saying you have rising cholesterol, but if you had that, because in 10 or 15 years from now, it would help a potential cardiac arrest or heart attack.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
A lot of the companies that are faced with this decision today say, we're not going to do that because you may not be an employee in 15 years, so why am I paying now for something where I get the benefit then? But that's a simple healthcare economics market solution. We should have those.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We should give private insurers incentives to, you know, in some cases, maybe the right thing to do is to put people on Ozempic and Munjarro. Do the work now. I understand that that employee may be retired by the time that they may need that, but it was the right thing to do for that person for having worked for you for 15 or 20 years.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Another thing, with AI today, you can read all of these insurance plans And you should have a standard way of knowing that a condition is going to get approved or not before it starts. And that needs to be auditable. It cannot be where you need like a PhD and five different people to read these insurance plans, and then all of a sudden, a random person can make an economic decision to say no.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That's also where simple technology can get built to build very strict guardrails. What is approved? What is not approved? Have it be known, have it be auditable, be in a log so that people can just simply escalate. Hey, that person got his approved and mine was dinged. Why? So there's all these little things to make the system better. It needs to be more open.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You need to have, for example, a different case of open. It is highly unlikely that you've ever tried to get all of your healthcare data. Impossible. Now, you would say, Chamath, why would I need that? Well, maybe there's an AI agent that can actually be your doctor in your pocket that just works for Tucker.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, it's the person that is constantly reading my every interaction with the healthcare system to tell me what they think. It's my own second opinion. That's not a bad idea. That's a very low cost thing to do, except you can't get the data. Why can't you get the data? Because there's federal regulations and most people don't listen to them.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
What a blessing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I had incredible kids. What a blessing. Five. Five incredible kids. That's amazing. No, Tucker, it's amazing. Having kids is amazing. I had incredible friends. I have a Thursday night poker game that I will, frankly, no matter where I am in the world, I will go out of my way, planes, trains, and automobiles to fly back for because of what that game gives me with my friends.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Federal regulations, TEFCA says, you have to be able to download your data. These companies make it very hard because they know the more open it becomes, it induces competition. Competition that will show up will probably be infinitely better. So I'm going to do everything I can to block it. And, you know, the federal and state governments don't do enough.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I start companies. But when I don't see something that I think I can start right away and there's somebody that's a little bit in the lead, I'll just invest and I'll just take a large piece so that I can help guide them. One of those businesses where I'm the largest shareholder has been working on breast cancer surgery.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And today across America, for every 10 women that go and get diagnosed with breast cancer, three of the surgeries leave cancer behind.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And the way that it works is you go in for what's called, so there's two different kinds of breast cancer surgery. There's a lumpectomy, which is take out the lump, or a mastectomy, which is take out the entire breast.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And in the lumpectomy, you have to have, you visualize with your own eyes, whether you think most of the cancer is gone, you close up the woman and you take that sample, you give it to a pathologist, and typically between seven and 11 days, which is how long it takes because they're clogged up and there's backlog, they'll look under a microscope and visually inspect and say, actually, sorry, 30% of the time they say you left some cancer behind.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So now those three women have to go back. They get another surgery. But again, 30% error rate. They do it again. And then one of those women gets dinged. So now one woman has had three breast cancer surgeries. That is happening today. Now, if you go to a really, really good teaching hospital, that error rate will be 5% because the docs are incredible.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
If you go to an overly zealous doctor, that error rate will also be low, but you'll come in for a lumpectomy, you'll end up with a mastectomy kind of a thing. They'll just take out so much of that, and that creates a disfiguration. So this company basically says, hold on a second, I'll just use AI. I'll look right down to the granular microscopic level. I'll take an extremely high res picture.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I have these little things. Where's the game? In my house. Really? Yeah. And it's great too, because by the way, like, you know, players also poker. So in Silicon Valley, there's like a group of us, like some well-known folks that we all get together. And my wife was the one that did this. She, when she first looked at the game, you'd see all these people and it was really interesting.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
My brain will be trained on only this one task. Is there cancer or is there no cancer? So we built it and it's in a bunch of the leading hospitals in America, but we had to file with the FDA to be allowed to tell the doctor. So I just want to be clear, we know, we can see it. And so we ran an 18 month trial, cost us 10 or 15 million bucks. And we met our endpoint in November.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We can now absolutely be sure that the cancer was removed or not removed. Now we have to package all of that up. We filed it with the FDA. We've been told we'll get approval by June and then we'll be able to sell, meaning sell the software upgrade.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So that essentially in the operating room, instead of having to wait for the pathologist seven to 11 days later, the doctor will do the lumpectomy, put it in the machine, and instantly you'll say, Tucker, you need to take out a little bit more. The margins are not right. Tucker, perfect job. Close her up. That's using AI.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah. Wow. That is using AI, and that can get breast cancer surgeries to be so prolifically good that the error rate goes to zero. The impact on the quality of life of those women, and then by extension, their families, their kids that have to deal with that stress as well, can go away. So that's a profound impact of AI that you're gonna see in the next year.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We could quibble that this should have been faster, could have cost a lot less money. Meaning it cost me the same amount of money to get this trial done as it cost that Chinese company to build a digital brain that's as good as OpenAI or Facebook. That's crazy. But whatever. Okay, put a pin in it. We did it. We'll file. And we'll move forward.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, we play the rules that are on the field, even if the rules make no sense. And it's hard to tell anybody to change the rules, but it is what it is. That's an example. Elon published some data yesterday, which is incredibly profound, which is he has an AI brain inside of the Tesla and the ability to drive safely on the highway became seven and a half X better than his previous version.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And his previous version was already 10 times better than a normal car, which means when you get on the highway, You engage FSD, it's called, his version of autopilot for the car. And it was already 10 times better. Now it's seven times better than that 10 times to not get into an accident.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So the idea about using AI now to just eliminate all the unnecessary deaths that happen because of traffic mishaps, there's the potential where that goes to zero. That's today as well. Again, his issue isn't technological. His issue is going to be regulatory. At what speed will people be able to be comfortable letting him take people from point A to point B?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But, you know, a lot of my friends have a touch of the tism. And so what happens is, you know, you just end up like looking down at your cards for eight hours straight. Nothing was happening. And she said, guys, this is ridiculous. You can play for a few hours, but at 7 p.m., we're going to break for dinner. We're going to sit around a table and we're all going to talk.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
In yet a different example, there are all of these small airplane companies, they're called eVTOL. So it's not a plane, not a helicopter, but it's kind of this hybrid thing in between. And they have this autopilot where it's like taking off in a no-pilot configuration, piloting it in the air, which is much simpler, by the way, than driving on the ground, and then landing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And you have the ability to now just create a level of transportation which increases GDP. And that is an AI brain that's calculating all the system variables around itself, being able to fly safely, getting from point A to point B. You don't have to drive seven hours. It's a 40 minute hop, skip and a jump now. So now go and do your job and come back. All of these things are happening right now.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We are gated on the regulatory machine which are unfortunately not filled with enough actual technologists. It's mostly bureaucrats teaching them, getting them comfortable that, you know, what do we intend with all of this? We intend of reversing this thought lost decade. We just want to get to work and build a thing so that America kicks ass.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I'll just say- He is an amazing human being. No, he really is. Like he is a guy- I agree. I had to teach Sax how to hug properly.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, Sax was a side hugger, which I can't.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's like, I'm not a side hugger.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You're going to give me a hug. And we've been, you know, really, really close friends for 20 years now. So I was like, bro, learn to hug. And we have all of these videos where like over the course of like four years, you know, I had to take his arm and
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
teach how you did video training oh yeah like i had to teach him how to put no with him and me you know his wife would take a video and it's like sax you got to put your arm this way and then he's like okay now you have to you know put your head over here he is he's a brilliant guy
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah. I mean, he taught me everything else, but I taught him how to hug.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And you must look at each other in the eyes. It was so funny. But it's become a ritual. And for all of us, we all feel seen. And then slowly what happens is people start to talk about things that they would have never talked about. And what you see is this repetitive pattern.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, I think it's made me much cooler for my older kids, my teenagers. You know, they use these words, which I just can't stand, but they're like, you know, if somebody comes up and says, hi, and we take a picture, they're like, dad, that was some good riz or whatever. They'll be like, yeah, that was, okay, good aura, Dad, good aura. And so we make fun of it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I will turn to them, and I'll be like, in the car, I'll be like, guys, shut up. They'll be making a lot of noise. They're like, why? And then I'll turn up, because I'm a very important podcaster. Yeah.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It actually started because our poker game, me, Sax, J. Cal, Freeberg, the four co-hosts, we were four of the kind of like the regular everyday players. When the COVID shelter in place happened, we weren't allowed to go out. And so we started to Zoom each other, and then we just started to record, and then we just threw it up on YouTube.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Because we would ask Freiburg to teach us about the disease and the science of it all. Then we would all take turns riffing on how frustrated we were at Newsom, and then we would kind of post it. And then it just took on a life of its own. And yeah, fast forward four years, I mean, we've done an episode a week. I think we got very lucky because it happened in a moment.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think you and Joe Rogan are two of the more leading examples of this, but the traditional media is totally dead. There was a stat today, the Washington Post's traffic in the last four years has gone from 20 and a half million viewers to three. Isn't that incredible? 20 and a half million monthly users to 3 million.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So the question is, in that vacuum, it's not as if the American population shrank. It's grown. What is the sense-making?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Or did news, yeah, exactly. More news is happening. So I think it's important to rebuild the sense-making. And I think we accidentally found ourselves making sense of things that are happening to people. Like, explain this technology thing. Explain this business thing. Explain this political thing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
People with this dark passenger, lots of insecurity, they achieve a lot, but all of that a lot is externally validated, but not internally felt. And so there's just this sense that there's an emptiness and people start to panic. I thought that XYZ would solve the problem. I thought the watches would solve the problem, the boat, the plane, the clothes, the chains. None of it solves it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Not necessarily so deeply, but connecting the dots so that you could have a slightly better worldview. Yeah. And I think that that's been helpful for people. It's been really fun for me.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, he is really incredible. You know, I didn't know what to expect. And then David and I threw a fundraiser for him. I mean, I think part of where all of this started was David called me in June. So actually taking a step back, he and I had always been active in politics. He was a, you know... died, he was a tried and true conservative from the beginning. I was a little bit more promiscuous.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I didn't really understand how to make my political beliefs fit into one of these vessels. But for the most part in the last few years, like everybody else, I got lulled into buying into a lot of the Democratic lines. And I was a large donor to the Democrats. And it all started to unravel for me in 2020, because I didn't understand COVID.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Then I got the vaccine, only to realize that it was not a vaccine. And I was really upset. A couple of my kids really struggled with what happened to them by not being able to go to school. And I was like, why hasn't the government intervened and gotten my kids back in school? All of these things just made me super frustrated. So I started to question, maybe I wasn't seeing things right.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And maybe I was reacting more with my ego. And the answer was, yeah, actually, the Democrats are extremely charming. And they can play a very sophisticated game where they make you feel exclusive. Oh, for sure. And that's part of the shtick of how they get money from you. I mean, I remember, and I would tell these stories as a point of pride. Now I tell it as a warning to myself.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I was sitting at dinner with Obama the day of Brexit. And you know that very famous kind of moment where, like, you know, Andrew Card passes that piece of paper to George Bush? Yes. There was a version of that moment, obviously much less important, but where somebody— Summer of 16.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, where somebody, like, passes a note to Obama, and he goes, oh, my—this was, like, we were in San Francisco, and it was, like, at 8 or 9 p.m., and he's like, oh, wow, the U.K. just voted to leave. Yeah. So I remember where I was that day. But those kinds of moments made me feel that maybe I was doing the right thing, right?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then all of my businesses just kept running up against these brick walls over and over and over again. Every time I tried to do something good that I thought was valuable, it would bump up against all of this stupid stuff. regulation and slowed back. And every time I looked at who they were, they were all supposedly on the same team that I was in.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I said, forget this, I have to start from first principles. So in 2023, and Sax and I decided we were going to start throwing fundraisers for a whole variety of candidates. So the first one was at his house. We threw a fundraiser for RFK. We got to meet Bobby. It was exhilarating. And for the first time, you had this person speaking truth to power.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Then at my house, we threw a fundraiser for Vivek. David and I did that together. And then David called me and said, let's do a fundraiser for Trump. And I said, absolutely. And I think that that started the- Did you check with your wife first? Yeah. That's quite a statement. She's very supportive. Yeah. You know, look, my wife, she's in the life sciences business.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But, you know, she's always been like- you have to make these decisions not from how other people will perceive you, but what do you feel? And she's like, explain to me, Bobby Kennedy. Explain to me, Vivek. Explain to me, Donald Trump. in your own words that isn't tied to, well, here's what other people will think of me when I do this. And then when I did that, she was like, okay, let's do it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Let's do it. And I mean, Trump was unbelievably true.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
No, it was very, it was a very tough moment. Kind of ballsy. It was very ballsy people. I got the amount of like hate text messages. I should have kept some of them. They're probably still on my phone actually. Um, But people were very mad. And part of, I think, why they were mad is they were afraid, meaning there was a lie that Biden was sharp as a tack.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And everybody, like clockwork, all of my friends go through it. And so it's funny, I'm sort of at the tail end of this, but that poker game has been almost like this therapy session where we all get to talk. And then as a result, people feel calmer. They feel a little bit more seen about what's going on. My point in telling you this is not sympathy.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And myself and David had not really dismantled the lie beyond just saying it looks like a lie. And I think that they were worried that it would create, I think what Peter Thiel calls this, which I really agree with, is a preference cascade.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, like Peter is a genius, but he is on an island many years ahead of the rest of us. Then there are other people, you know, like me and David to some degree, who are also sort of like, we can kind of see the patterns not nearly as fast as a Peter, but then we do a decent job of translating it for other folks. So I think people were afraid if these guys translate
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
their interactions with Donald Trump into the truth, it's going to tip a lot of people. And they were right. Because when Trump came, wow, I mean, like,
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
He had called me. So I'd had a telephone conversation. So I knew what he was like on the phone. That's when I knew I'd made a mistake before about believing what the press was saying. That's where I went back and I looked at the Charlottesville press conference. And I looked at all of them again after my phone call. When the president called me, I was like, hold on a second. This man was...
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
incredibly charming, polite, kind, He just like, what I honestly thought, Tucker, I called my wife, I was like, he was raised by really good parents. That's what I said to them. That's what I said to my wife. Because you can tell in your kids, you know, like when you see kids around and there are some, they are polite, they're kind, they make eye contact.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There's these, I don't want to call them simple, but there are these building blocks of being a human being that you need to be taught by your parents, he was taught. And I have tremendous respect for that. So then when I saw him at David's house, I mean, it's pretty incredible. It's a larger than life figure. Um, and he's extemporaneous. He talks for an hour and a half.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
He's going all over the place. He's doing the, the weave, you know, it's incredible. Um, and so I was hilarious too. He's very funny.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Which is really hard to be actually.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And, uh, and so I walked away thinking, wow, I had got it knit totally wrong. And I was lied to. And I believed at a very superficial level what the mainstream media was saying. And then I did even more research. I read the lawsuits. And it was just the amount of contortion that people were going through to try to prevent this man from getting into power made me want him to be in power even more.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Because I thought they're afraid of something. That's something they're not going to say out loud. But that is the thing that we need to exercise from the U.S. government. That thing that they want to protect.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's just the state that everybody is going through this struggle. So back to me, I was able to sort of put a finger on what my thing is. What is that big sack that I've been trying to carry up a hill that is totally worthless and not worth my time? It's this idea that I am worthless and I'm not worth anybody's time.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then, you know, different from his first time around, the caliber of the people around him, it's like the 92 Barcelona, you know, dream team. As far as I can tell, I mean, like, my gosh, like, you get Elon, you get Vivek, you get RFK, you get Tulsi, you get all of these people, you know, Howard Lutnick.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
David Sachs, Scott Besant. This is amazing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
After that, yeah, because it gave permission. You know, David is very complimentary to me in that because I was a little bit more promiscuous and not necessarily just a straight hardline Republican. Yep. It was a little bit more valuable, I think, for that cohort of people because they could kind of say, oh, well, if it's, you know, Chamath said it, oh, then yeah, sure.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But I think that he probably took a lot of heat as well. And more than that, what he did was he then said, you know, I'm really going to put my foot on the gas here. And he's great at this, which is just like, I'm going to tip the preference cascade. So then he went to the Republican convention. He spoke. He, you know, he did a lot. And his wife did a lot.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That's a real dynamic power couple, those two.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then Andreessen came out. And it was funny, like the Andreessen thing was so a little bit interesting. I don't think the full details, so I'm just speculating. But, you know, it did turn out that his partner also gave like 50 or 100 million bucks to Kamala, which I suspect then that Marc probably gave 50 or 100 million to Trump. It looked like they were splitting it, yeah.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There was an initial part where people do this, you know? Yeah. And I felt that because I'm very sensitive to that. Yes. And my feelings get hurt. Yes. And I get super annoyed by it. Um, you know, I think you call it the private equity wives for me. It was like the private equity husbands as well.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And that just comes from the way that I was raised and the things that happened to me. I don't want any sympathy for that except to say that's my thing. But now that I know it, I can try to do things that are more productive in ways where I feel real value. And I think that's a very useful process because it reintroduces, I think it can fix for so many people the thing that is so broken right now.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
They all, they all just like kind of like a scowl. And then after the election, it was more like a, and I'm like, what changed?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
What it should have done, I should have taken a step back and say, hold on, this has nothing to do with me. What is this moment? And the moment would have been, we're at the tail end of zero rates. We had trillions of dollars that the government had basically given to individuals. We had an enormous M2 money supply. And instead, I thought it was me.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think a lot of people, um, are not necessarily fighting a moral or ideological battle, Tucker. I think people are just trying to get from one day to the next day. For sure. And I respect that. at first I was hurt by it because I didn't understand it. And I thought, again, it goes back to, oh, I'm worthless. Like, is there something about me? Is that why you're rejecting me?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then I realized it has nothing to do with me. This person is just, today is a day, tomorrow is a day. And they're not fighting these battles. It doesn't make them better nor worse. It's just a different. For me, I'm caught up in my own head about having to do something a little bit more ideological and morally rooted because I need that so that I feel like there's purpose. Of course.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Not everybody's built that way. And I wasn't built that way.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I think that that's very fair. So, you know, I kind of leave it to them as what they are. I think it's good that their minds are open and their eyes are open. So the way that this is going to be really tested now is what's happening in California. If you look at the Palisades, which is an incredibly affluent area.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Beautiful place. And has just been decimated. And several of my very good friends lost their homes there. They were tried and true Democrats. It didn't matter what the candidate's name was beside the box in the ballot. They checked it and they moved on. And now the real test for them is what do they do?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Will they look through the label and actually look at the policies and ask, did these help or hurt me? All of these things that I give money to, all these NGOs and nonprofits, did they help or hurt me? California has a $322 billion a year budget. Do I, as a taxpayer who pays some of the highest taxes in the nation, have a right to ask where that money is being spent?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And if the answer to all those questions is it doesn't matter, check the box, then we deserve what we get in California. But it can be much better. Because today the state is totally broken. We have lost the script. We don't prioritize California's economic supremacy, nor its technological supremacy.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That is a huge mistake when you look at the number of companies that have left the state, Oracle, Tesla, Chevron. I mean, this is not like just fringe businesses. These are the businesses that matter. And they're voting with their feet
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, you said that we're— I would not underestimate the Democratic machine. It's a cartel that runs that state. Oh, I know. And Gavin Newsom is extremely charismatic. And he is able to convince people of things that are just not true. And so he is fighting for his political life. He definitely wants to be on the national stage.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so the real question is, is he able to convince enough people that this was the environment and that these winds came out of nowhere? Or will it be laid bare at his feet that it was just a lack of skill, intellectual rigor, and distraction and negligence and incompetence that caused this fire?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, I found that there were three bills that started in the legislature that were either approved by the legislature and were then vetoed by Newsom or were then pulled down by the legislature itself. Again, this is like Democrats on Democrat violence to just give a waiver to all of these local municipalities to go and clear the brush. Just that, clear the brush.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We are completely de-spiritualized. Nobody believes in a higher order, faith, God. And so I think what happens is everybody has this Carl Jung moment. All of this difficulty sits on top of them. And at some point, they may never say it out loud, they think, I am living in a tale told by an idiot, right? That's that famous quote about why spirituality is important.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Now, would that have stopped the fire? No, I get that it wouldn't have stopped the fire, but the intensity of a fire is directly proportional to the energy load that you give it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So take away some of the fuel and the fire will be less. And if we can't even admit that plain truth, this is what I mean by if we're going to continue to just lie to ourselves because we care so much about this failed ideology, then California is going to just continue to just degrade.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It is true. But the thing that is important to keep in mind about California is sometimes you get lucky. Right. And we have to acknowledge our luck, but not fritter it away. Specifically in California, there is a critical mass of these 50,000 Michael Jordan engineers.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You cannot rebuild Silicon Valley by casting it to the four winds. Some people go to Peoria, Illinois. Some people end up in Boston. Some are in Miami. Some are in Las Vegas. Some are in Austin. All fine and good. But that is not the place or the way to create the technical vibrancy we need to generate technical supremacy.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You need these people close and around you so that they're cross-pollinating from each other. And this is, again, where why hasn't the state realized that? That is an incredibly critical resource.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Well, right now, if you look at California's employment, the employment picture is quite scary because it is government jobs that are convoluting how healthy the actual state is. So if you take away the government jobs, but at the end of the day, what do government bureaucrats do? They want to govern. How do they do that? They're going to legislate or they're going to regulate. Where is that felt?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's felt on private industry and private citizens. But eventually at the limit, the amount of regulation goes to infinity and they're legislating themselves into oblivion. Nobody will be there to legislate, to be governed by all of this insanity because everybody will leave. And first the people that leave are the people that can leave. Then the people that leave are the people that have to leave.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And we're in the first part.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, I mean, look, my, again, I'll tell you in terms of my poker game, half of that, half of those people that have been my lifelong friends for 20 years have left, half.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Austin, Miami.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, Texas and Florida. And it's just so frustrating. And they've left because they can't build things. The taxes were like secondary. One of my friends left because, you know, one of their children went through, you know, a bit of an identity crisis, if you want to call it that. Yes.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And the police showed up and wanted to, you know, take the kid away, you know, so that the kid could go through like a transition that the kid ultimately decided they didn't want to go through.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah. You know, that's the law in California.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I'm not sure if it's to encourage it, but my understanding of the way this works is if you as a child have these issues and you escalate that, there is a requirement for the school to basically call Child Protective Services, who may or may not call the police, who may or may not come to your house and try to take the kid away.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And when you feel that way and you don't have an answer, you start to feel angry and you start to push back and you start to think, tear it all down. None of this is working. It's all BS.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Well, they're your children to the point where the government believes that they know better.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, look, I try to think of myself as a good parent. I try to do the best I can. Do I make mistakes? Yeah, sure. But am I generally better for my kids than some other random adult? Also, yeah.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Right? And so like the idea that just some random person in an office somewhere can read some piece of paper and all of a sudden take your kids away, that's very scary. It's very scary. It makes me feel very insecure, that idea.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I'm very stubborn and I feel very grateful. I feel very grateful to America. I feel very grateful to California. It gave me a path that I would not have had anywhere else. And so I have a responsibility to stay and fix it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think people need to force the change now. It has to force change. People have to understand that these labels mean nothing. Meaning, you could have the smartest person in the world and the dumbest person in the world. You cannot vote for the dumbest person in the world just because the label beside them is something you've been told is wrong.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That is just the height of stupidity. It's not what you're allowed to do as an adult. Right. Adults aren't allowed to do that. Your kids can do that.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I want to try to solve it for myself and then as I live and as I just kind of do the things that I'm doing, start new businesses, make new investments, I want to try to point this out because I think by pointing it out, you have a chance for other people to start questioning things. Do I have a dark passenger?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And you're supposed to teach your kids that that's not how you make decisions when you're an adult.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There are some really competent people that are in that state that will... Try now to come out of the woodwork to do the right thing, to deregulate California. California has 60,000 regulations on the books. It was 10,000 less than a decade ago. Go back to 10,000. Go to 5,000. What are we afraid of? Are you afraid of the breast cancer thing that could get to market faster?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Are you afraid that Elon's autopilot can now save people's lives more? Are you afraid that we can catch rockets and then send them back to the stars and the heavens and Mars? Why is that bad?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
This is my point. It's not working. So how long do, you know, well-heeled Democratic voters need to see their state run over, need to see their lives ruined, and now their kids' lives ruined? And maybe this is the thing that actually— Well, you tell me.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So, not where I live, because the only damage that has ever happened in Silicon Valley is economic damage, but then it's righted itself. And so, people just go and move along blindly in the orthodoxy. It's only when your business is at risk where you'll flip. So, you know, you've seen kind of like meta have a total, you know, come to Jesus moment.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Have you talked to Zuckerberg about it? No, Mark and I have. You know, I gave this speech at Stanford in 2016. which went pretty viral, which kind of laid bare what was going on in social media. And he and I have not spoken since. Wow. Yeah.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think it's a calculation to manage the conditions on the field. Meaning what I said on the pod is all you need to know are two things. One is there's an incredible picture in Donald Trump's book, which is a picture of Zuck sitting in the Oval. And, by the way, this is the same book which you have to get.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's the book where, like, you know, he talks about, you know, Trudeau's mom kind of, like, casting about with the Rolling Stones and, like, you know— Not just casting about, rolling about. Yeah, rolling about and, like, you know, he's, like, Fidel Castro's love child.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Anyways, but in that book is a picture of Zuck and it says, you know, Zuck was the nicest guy to my face but then would, you know, work against me to turn over the election and, you know— I've made it very clear that if he tries to do anything like that again, he'll go to prison for the rest of his life. That's what Trump says in the caption.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then he was asked about that last week, the exact same day that Meta changed their policies. And he said, do you think it was in response to what you said? And the president said, probably. So I think it's a very smart but necessary set of calculations, but I think they are calculations.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, I'd only be guessing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, I think that he's a very big fan of the Roman Empire. If I had to translate and guess how that manifests in his day-to-day decision-making, I think he thinks of things empirically, meaning like as an empire. And he has an empire. He has Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger. These are institutional worldwide products. In the digital sphere, he is Rome.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so I think that he cares about the propagation of that empire probably more than he cares about any philosophical trends per se. Because the empire endures if you can manage the vicissitudes of trends. That's right. So when the trend was under the Democrats to build a censorship machine, you do that. And then when the trend is to do the opposite, you'll do the opposite.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, I am... It's still very much a source of anger for me. Like, this idea that I'm basically worthless makes me mad. And I projected it for many years sort of on the people that I, you know, my parents for the most part, and all that dysfunction. Because I think about it a lot.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Sure. I think that that's not the question.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
He controls Facebook with an iron fist. He has complete voting control. He has less economic participation, but he has absolute power. And that was the justification in some ways of explaining how he made these changes now. It doesn't explain why it veered in the other direction then. And I think it's important to just probably get the answer to that, and then you'll know where he stands.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Meaning the economic power has ebbed and flowed, but the absolute power has never changed. So the philosophy that he believed in then, if it's the same now, then the question is, well, why did the manifestation of that power change?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I can believe that too, by the way. I'm sympathetic to that. I mean, that's got to feel like a lot of pressure when you're a young guy on the come up and a bunch of these well-heeled politicos show up at your office and say, you know, bend the knee.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There are billionaires that have said, go fuck yourself.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And they've become, you know, even more successful as a result.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think he's the heartbeat. Here's what I mean by that. I've thought about this. It is the most important temperature check that we are going to make the changes that Donald Trump wants. Meaning, I think the president in some ways is the most powerful job, but I think this second term he's more of a vessel in the sense that he's got all of these great field generals who can now run the place.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And of all the field generals, the one that has just an incremental more degree of freedom to also communicate openly and continuously with the public is him. So you'll get a sense of whether there's an arrhythmia by just monitoring his X feed. You'll also get a sense of whether there's like a, you know, like if the drumbeat is building, I think you get a sense of that from Elon as well.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think he is the, he's the heartbeat.
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Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, and that's what's so powerful. And this is why I think, you know, when you compare and contrast Zuck with Elon, I think Zuck is like every other CEO. And Elon is just a complete singular outlier in the sense that there is no book that would have told you, just tell the truth grounded in your morality from day one and just burn the boats. You know, that old Cortez line, right?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And people would have said, what? And so whatever he's felt, he's shared in complete truth and candor. No other CEO has ever done that, and probably no one will ever will, because you can't do it as a strategy, and you can't implement it on day 17 or day 1004. It's you either are or you're not. And so he sets a way of behavior that future CEOs should emulate,
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Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But we also have to a little bit give a break and cut some slack to everybody else because they're just never going to do as good a job as him in doing that.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Oh, he's a star. But he's a kind guy. Like, I mean, you know him as well. But like, I think that people should know this. Like, this is a kind, he's a kind guy. He's like, he's a beautiful person. He's a kind guy.
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Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Gosh. Meaning, like, the intersection of private and public industry kind of thing?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then when I make mistakes, so in that 2022 period, when I started to really write down, here are all the mistakes I made, one or two layers.
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Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Well, it happened in a moment where I think that there was the intersection of a lot of free speech issues. And I just think there was some stuff that I'm not going to get into, but personal stuff, I think, probably in his own life. And it just made him question, what are these philosophies? What are these ideologies? And how destructive are they if we can't question things and talk out loud?
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Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so... We all got very lucky. He paid the personal. This is what I mean by like everybody can be like, wow, it's so easy. It must be amazing. I would crumble under the weight of that. I don't think I'm capable of that. I know that about myself. It doesn't look easy at all. My God. And like the price you pay, the personal price you pay, I couldn't do it. I think he's a unique person that way.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Wrote them down. It's like, okay, I invested a couple hundred million dollars in this thing. It went to zero. What was I thinking? And I would first, in your mind is very clever. At first you lie to yourself and you lie to yourself incredibly well. Well, I underwrote it this way. I thought the discounted cash flows were, it's all BS.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
His capacity for pain, his capacity for just the sheer drudgery. It's incredible. I've never seen anything like it. I mean, I guess in this context, I've been around two of these incredible figures. Mark, I worked in the trenches with. Elon, I've seen now for 15 plus years.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
and i when you think about those two um yeah with elon there's just an incredible intellectual curiosity an incredible amount of ability to suffer pain and suffering and yet he's incredibly kind i don't know how he also seems to i i don't understand how he does everything
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I know, exactly. Look, I got here last night, ate at the Pink Elephant, went to bed, and I felt guilty. I thought, you know, shouldn't I be doing more yesterday? I really thought that. And I saw my email kind of piling up, and I used you as an excuse. Oh, I have to be fresh for Tucker. Good night. That's what I did. So you're right.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then I think, okay, I'm operating across an investment portfolio and one company that I run very intensely. how do you do that multiplied by seven and all of these other, I don't know how you do it. I really don't know, Tucker.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I wish that there was an answer, but I also think it's not the right thing to answer in the sense that we're all going to give some glib answer and then everybody's going to try to run and copy it. And I think what you forget is he is the product of 20 years of preparation. He started with one company. They need to have two companies. Do you know what I mean?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So these are reps upon reps upon reps upon reps. over decades. And I think it's important to keep that in mind. That is a level of skill. He is demonstrating human peak level performance. It's easier to observe it in maybe an athlete or something else, but that's what he's demonstrating. He is at the peak of human intellect.
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Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That is the brain unencumbered by all the other stuff that maybe a lot of us get caught up in.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Great idea.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, it's not I've never he tweeted out like, like, there's all these things I've never taught. I never tell him these things. But like, there are things that he's that's why I follow him. Because part of it is like, I get things from him in Twitter, that really profoundly affect my life. So when I was going through all of that turbulence in 2022, you know, he tweeted out, I think it was in 21.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I can't remember when it was, but he's like, I've just sold all my homes and possessions. And I went back. Immediately I thought of, that is the one thing that I was taught as a Buddhist when I was raised Buddhist. And despite all the stuff and all the anger that I had, and I never thought that Buddhism was all that effective or useful for me, I took one lesson.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
One layer after that was, and then I communicated my thinking to hold myself accountable, also BS. That communication got me attention and I liked the way it made me feel. And then I said, hold on a second. That feels true. I hate that I can even say it, that it may be true, but that feels true.
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Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Detach yourself from the physical world.
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Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I saw it and I connected that dot to myself and I said, I am the opposite of that.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I am totally, totally, totally attached to the physical world.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There you go.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Same idea. Same idea. And so he tweets that out. He sold all of his houses. He sells all of his possessions. And I'm like, what am I doing? I'm buying more. I'm like, oh, I'm going to take delivery of this thing and this other thing. And now I have to hire people to manage the things. And I'm like, what am I doing? Yes. So that helped me a lot.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I've never told, I never told, but yeah, these things. So he is an incredible, I think, guidepost on how to clarify your own intentions. If you're willing to see through it all and clarify that message, that would be a thing that I think he's an incredible exemplar of. Find the thing that you care about. and then just double and triple and quadruple and quintuple down on that thing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
No, but I think we need to make it more fashionable to be spiritual. Oh, you don't think it's changing? I don't think it's changing yet. I think that a lot of this extreme wealth was created in people that are in their 30s, some in their 20s. Many of them are in their 40s. And I think that over this next 10 or 15 years, there's going to be a crisis of identity.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
when they realized that, you know, they were playing dumb games focused on superficial things beyond the companies themselves. And that there's a bigger purpose, right? There needs to be a loyalty to country, loyalty to the state, loyalty to the people around you that you don't even know. Not to virtue signal, but to actually just do the hard practical work.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Part of that isn't rooted, I think, in a spirituality. That's not there yet. But I think that it will become cool again. Sorry, it can become cool again. I believe in God.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And the reason I believe in God, and if I were to tell my friends in Silicon Valley, the way that I would incept this idea would be purely from a scientific lens, which is, if you believe it is true, which I think most people do, that there is a finite moment in which the universe began. Explain not the process, but explain the moment. And you cannot.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And it is an endless rabbit hole that if you spend your time, and again, when I was feeling very empty, that's where I started. And I read all about, I read about Islam, I read about Christianity, I read about Judaism, I reread about Buddhism. And the only explanation is God.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so then I go back and I start to think like, how many other decisions that I made that I made in that period were rooted in that? And when I saw four or five of them, I said, this is not what I'm supposed to be doing. And then I went back and I said, how many other decisions in my life have I been making that were rooted in the idea of look at me? And it turned out that there were a lot.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I think that that's a way where people there can be, you know, they'll let their guard down because if you start a conversation about physics and cosmology and people are very open-minded and then you go, well, how did it happen? How did T equals zero happen? And what does T minus one look like? And their brains explode.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Their brains truly explode because people that are very good technologically in that way, are very good at getting to explanations. And they're very good at kind of like breaking things down. I know it's used a lot now, but into first principles.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There is no first principles explanation for how the world, for how the universe began. There is none. Don't tell me about the Big Bang Theory. It doesn't work. Don't tell me about general relativity because it all breaks. We have to make these profound assumptions in math and physics to make it all hang together because you cannot tell me what T equals zero. right at that moment? How?
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Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Nobody can answer that.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so then if you look at this entire lived world around you, I don't know, I just I am filled with this, like, immense gratitude. And then I think it must be God. And that gives me like, it gives me something. I didn't have that before. And so I take that. I'm not trying to push that on other people, but that works for me.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Makes me a better husband, makes me a better dad, it makes me a better friend. I do things now that I, when the fires were happening, my friends, I just round robin, I just kept calling them.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
every day to check in on them um that's a small thing right um but these are values that i had lost somewhere along the way where you know just like just calling people caring about people um one of my friends lost the home i spent an entire afternoon not an entire afternoon sorry again i don't want to overplay it i spent like an hour or so going through all my google photos
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah. I think we had a fever, and that fever has broken. And what has to lie in its place are examples of how all of these things that we thought we were not allowed to do when we do them actually work, meaning we're actually just going to focus on merit and get incredible people
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And it'll turn out that you'll get your diversity wish, but you're not going to get it by mandating it and forcing it down our throats. We're just going to get the best people. And then the best people are just going to go and kick ass together. We're going to get an ecology that we protect and love because we want to be out there hunting, fishing, camping, living it, skiing it, whatever it is.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The things I bought, the clothes I wore, the things I said, the way that I tried to live a life. And I felt that that was not me. I was ashamed of it. Then I was angry about it. And then I asked my wife, I need you to help me fix it. And this is what I mean by, like, you have to have a partner, I think, in crime that can really go through the ups and downs with you.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But we're going to get there because we actually manage it and take care of it and clean up all of the stuff that would otherwise burn it to the ground. So we're going to test all of this stuff. And I think it's going to work. And then the other thing we need to do is we need to cut down all of these things that are these little ropes that are pulling us all back, meaning
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
This is a stretch, but I'll use myself in this example. I think I'm one of those 50,000 people that can go and ram and jam for Team USA. I can't. There are moments where I've been really dunking on people, if this is a basketball analogy. I want to do more of that. I want Team USA to kick ass. I just want it to be a little bit easier.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so I hope that we figure out a way, instead of having 60,000 little regulations and people that want to lord over us, just give us 10,000 and just trust us that we're trying to do the right thing. And if we don't, fine. Trust but verify. And if we screw up, fine. Hold us accountable. But just give us a chance so that we can just make sure that USA, Team America, that idea...
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
is the singular organizing function for America, not everybody's own little pet project.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I think that that's possible. But, I mean, time will tell. These next four years will be super critical.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Thanks, Tucker.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then in 2022, when the war in Ukraine started, the bottom fell out financially in Silicon Valley, in, frankly, a lot of things that I was working on. It was such a wake-up call, and it was the biggest blessing of my life. I never thought I would be in a position to have made that much money. In hindsight, I've never been more blessed than to torch $3 or $4 billion. Thank you.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
She's like, I've been telling you this for years. What every wife says. But, you know, I was like, finally, I listened. And, you know, she always makes this joke. She's like, I could tell you the smartest thing in the world. And she's like, you think you need a man to tell you. And I said, well, this time this man was me. And it's a joke.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so, and my father-in-law. And my father-in-law, when I finally like kind of got rid of all the anger that I had, my father-in-law was a father that I wish I had had. And what I mean by this is like, Some people may not understand this, Tucker. You may or may not. It is extremely discomforting to feel unconditional love from the people around you if you have not felt it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
If you have always felt it, you don't know what it means when somebody says it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You're like, what does that mean? I don't know. I... knew what it did not, what I thought love looked like. And then when you have people that love you in this way, it's tilting. And it made me angry because I would go back to what is this? I would push back on this and I would go back to that and say, why didn't that look like this? And I was just, I was in an endless loop of just being mad.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, and at first I was mad at her, you know, meaning subconsciously, like, because she's giving me something that I don't understand. And I thought, there's got to be a catch. Where's the asterisk? There's always a catch. And, you know, for years, she's like, there's no catch. And then she says to me, this is the best thing that's ever happened to us.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
She's like, now this next phase of totally building will be that you and I do it together. And again, I freaked out. And I thought, what do you mean? Where'd you find this woman? Oh my God. She's, I mean, she's from the heavens. She turns out she's from Milan, but she's from the heavens. And she's like, but we'll do it together.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And it's going to be incredible, whatever it is, because we're going to look back and the process will have been the thing. So I needed a guide and I needed to be open. to listening. And so I needed that event. Because think about a kid, me. I grew up in Sri Lanka. There's a civil war. We claim refugee status in Canada. Grew up on welfare. I get an engineering degree.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And within a year, I'm in the United States. And my career just goes up and to the right. Everything was working. Youngest vice president at AOL when I was 26 years old, running this big messaging business. Then I get recruited by Zuck. I go to Facebook as one of the early execs. I build that business.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
All the key things that they look back on now, the network effects, the early monetization, internationalization, that was my team. Most of my team still runs that company. So it was like, then I left and I started an investment business. Those investment returns are really good So everything was quote unquote working.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I held myself in really high regard, but for the wrong things, if that makes sense. Of course it does. I could point to a bank account or Twitter followers or all of this stuff. And then when that was undone, right, 2022, 2023, what happened? What happened? I thought that this was all supposed to work and it would work forever.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It was an opportunity for me to really reset and tell myself the truth, the ugly truth. Hey, man, you are motivated by stupid, inconsequential stuff. Get back to basics. And then when I looked around, it wasn't just me. There's so many of my peers in Silicon Valley that had also just wasted the last decade doing nothing. We were all quote unquote wealthier, but we were more broke, you know?