Chamath Palihapitiya
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
So you're saying these are three individuals who illegally secured, or no, legally secured a social security?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
You're literally pulling one by one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Are you shocked that people don't care about this more?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Should we care more?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Whose decision would it be to just change the cost of that API?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
I mean, talk about customer service. So look, in all the companies that we all run, we always talk about
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
using incentives to shape the outcome you want and i think you keep insisting which i think is right that civil servants by and large want the right things to happen that's why they chose to go and work for the government so what is the incentive we need to change is it a compensation incentive is it like what like what is it look i think the people that work in the government it's a normal distribution everything right it's two and a half million people the government plus contractors
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Like for example, if you look at Singapore, the Singaporean approach from Lee Kuan Yew was, let's create a government that is extremely empowered, but let's also make it quite small, let's make them more compensated, and let's try to find sort of an elite cadre of folks. Is that approach possible in the United States, or should we even think that we should try something like that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
It was you and the other guy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Can I tell you an answer to this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Shamath, you were going to say something about the town? I had a... I mean, without saying too much, but you can guess. So all of us have known Elon for a really long time. I also worked for another person that's of that same stature for a long time. And- He's much shorter. Much shorter. And one of- I say that. A very good friend of his came to see me recently for lunch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
And he asked me this exact same question about Elon. He said- Like it was kind of like, that's the question that they were grappling with. How is he able to find big balls?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
It's almost the opposite. The less credentials you are, he has a predisposition to think you're more right. Have you solved a problem? By the way, this is a Peter Thiel. But my answer to this was there's a lot of people that can be responsive in email. I think there's a handful of people that are real northern stars for technical talent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
but he's the only one that when you walk in the room he says here's this mission and it is so generally otherworldly nobody else can really say that it is a flywheel as you said that is extremely unique the fact that you can direct that entropy to the United States government I think is a blessing now the question is how do we follow up and make it attractive because to your point
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud arrests, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
I saw those kids on that interview and any of my five kids, if they had done what they did, I would have been so proud. I was so impressed with these kids. And you're like, you're proud to be an American watching these kids.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Scott, what is the American dream today, do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Well, I think the first part of it is it's a data problem. Because in order for the government, I mean, the one thing that struck me about, I think, this Trump 2.0 administration is I think you have a better beat on the fact that this data is not as reliable as other administrations would say they were in order to do whatever it is they wanted to do anyway.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
So it was sort of like, let me just find the data that justifies what my action is. And part of why you can't, I think, tell the story is, do you trust the GDP numbers? Do you trust nonfarm payrolls? Do you think these are reliable enough for you to act on behalf of the United States?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Peel the onion back. What do you think is causing this anxiety? Where are the levers that maybe the federal government can control in releasing some of the pressure? And what are more market functions that just need to clear up some of these distances?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Well, today's a really important day. We're joined by the 79th Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besson. And this is an opportunity that we wanted to take as part of a longer form way of explaining to people not just how the economy works, but in a little bit more detail, where are we in this moment in time? Where are we with deficits, tariffs, the budget, economic, monetary, fiscal policy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
How do we make sure that we all understand the plan to make America great again? So, Scott, thank you for joining us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
I actually want to start with, let's go back in the Wayback Machine. So South Carolina, your father was a real estate developer. Tell us where the passion for finance came from.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Especially because the CR unfortunately gave folks a get out of jail free card because we kept the $2 trillion cap for an exit alone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Well, do you actually think that that's true? Do you think that most politicians are here to just get money for the question? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
The Christmas tree bill that kind of shows up at the 11th hour.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Can you talk about, so we talked about this deregulation as this one very important lever, right? So how do we add 50, 100 basis points of growth back in? We're going to do it through deregulation. How do you undo the financial corset, as you said? What are the three or four big ideas that you'd like to affect?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
But when you look at the regulatory overhang of some of these things, Basel I, Basel II, you have all of these frameworks. And then as a result, all these organizations that are running around trying to help you administer this complexity, all it does is just lower economic activity in the end.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Turn off every risk. It's their job. If you had to create a metric then to say, okay, here's how we're going to measure this undoing of the financial corset, is it sort of the lending velocity by private lenders so that the private re-leveraging can occur? Is that a good way to think about that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
It meets the business where it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
So can you talk about then how you will work with the Fed in sort of the change of all of this financial machinery? Or do you need to?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
And also just generally maybe your thoughts on just the Fed in this process of helper, foe, like where do they stand?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Can we talk about that for a second? I think, and I've said this for a year probably, but one of the biggest mistakes that I think Janet Yellen affected was this continued issuance of money on the short end of the curve to finance these deficits, which gives you, you inherit an incredibly difficult challenge, I think, over the next nine months.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
I think there's like nine or 10 trillion that has to get refinanced. Do you want to talk about that and
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
It will be amazing. It's not the pre. Let's just, it's the post. What the fuck? We're going to pretend it's the pre. It was amazing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
We were just with Elon in the West Wing. An incredible stat he said. I'm not going to name the firm so that I don't want to. But he said this one organization gets 98% of their revenue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
And how good it is for them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
So this is what I was going to ask you. Let's just say that... somehow the Borg slows this whole thing down. You know, what people say is that the conventionalism, well, then the only place to look will be things like entitlements. Good question, yeah. Do you think that that's true?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
There's a body of knowledge that says, if we just fed in, and by the way, four or five of these companies can do this now. If we just fed in this entire federal tax code into these AI models, what you can give to Americans is a very guaranteed, resolute ability to file taxes with the assurance that there is no waste, fraud, and abuse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
And now, all of a sudden, you take this incredible weight off of people's shoulders. Sometimes it is said that you get audited for almost political reasons, it seems like.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
But to your point, this is where technology can create very reliable guardrails for the American citizen. Where it's like, OK, well, if this model says I owe $1,000 in tax, this is it. I'm not trying to change anything. I've fed it all the information. Software first. Software first, and you just know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
So Druck has that famous adage, invest then investigate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Are you excited by the idea of the Sovereign Wealth Fund?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
When it comes out of conservatorship, where does that go?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Do you see a wave of privatizations as a way to sort of both pay down the deficits and debts and also just to... That's important to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
You've mentioned cheap energy as a critical part of this holistic program, I think three times now. Where do we make mistakes in that path where energy gets out of control? What do we need to do to make sure that energy actually, the incremental cost of the electron basically goes to zero?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Well, this is an incredibly nuanced and I think an important point because we have this very vibrant, as you know, tax equity and transferability market. that allows a lot of these organizations to make these five and 10 year investment cases.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
And for all the issues with the IRA, of which there are many, I think the one narrow aspect that it did was it calmed the markets about the future of those specific ITC credits and transferability. And it's a critical thing because there was a report, you probably saw it, but FERC said 90 plus percent of our incremental electrons as of December
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
were from sources that were leveraging these ITC credits and that transferability.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
He loves it. I hate it. Well, no, I don't hate it. I like nuclear. I just think it's 10 years away. He's a loser. Don't listen to him. It's just not an investable thing for the next 10 years. But other than that, it's great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
When you go home and you're talking to your kids, you're talking to your husband, and you're like, This was so cool. There must be these moments where you're like, this was so cool. Do you have any anecdotes that you're comfortable sharing where you're just like, I can't believe I'm doing this job?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Yeah. I think you said it very well in TV afterwards. It really, really was based on. And you said, because you were there, you tried to negotiate with him in Kyiv. It was a very escalated, I think you used the word escalated or high decibel conversation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Is there pressure that you can apply or influence you can apply? One of the things you mentioned earlier was just take San Francisco. There's an artificial constraint that's created by the zoning paradigm. and it's not clear how you unlock that. Maybe is it up to private citizens to have regime change at the local level, but how do we unclog that part of it to marry up with this kind of stuff?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Because it would be great if you could just build up in many places.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
I cannot even describe to you the day we had running around.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
They were picking winners and losers in a way that a lot of us were left scratching our heads.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
And to the extent that we believe we're in an existential arms race for technical supremacy, it's really on one dimension, which is AI. And that is so needy of energy. So if we don't pull all of these issues together and realize that we need to basically take the incremental cost to zero, whatever we do, we need to create the incentives and package it all together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Like China and some other countries have done so we got a crushing energy price right exactly right and when you're in the oval What are the truths and misconceptions of the president may meaning of the outside and what people? Know or don't know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Okay, well, let's hold that idea and double click for us to 92. It's probably one of the most famous moments where the broader world at large met macro trading. And this is really where you and Druck and Soros basically broke the back of the Bank of England. And it's really an interesting window into assessing all of these things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
So can you give us the conditions on the ground at that moment and what new reality you saw for England? And then it would be great from there, we'll contrast and compare it to America today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
One of the best days of my life.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
It was incredible. Incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
The White House, the people, 201, super kind, super open. Super curious. I mean, you felt it. You felt accepted.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Wow. So in that moment, what you're really observing is that the real economy is somewhat dislocated, maybe meaningfully dislocated from the financial economy in your operating. And I think you've said this now many times, and you've basically used the terminology, the Main Street, Wall Street dichotomy. How do you observe the moment in 2025, the
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
Maybe what rhymes with the early 90s or other periods where you've been trading actively?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Scott Bessent | All-In DC
You had very meaningful wage suppression in that period, and you had an equity market that was incredibly well bid just because the money supply was just always there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
So they got fired. That person's working at Google Siberia?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
Do you think the number of foundational models, like if you look three years forward, Will they start to cleave off and get highly specialized? Beyond the general and the reasoning, maybe there's a very specific model for chip design. There's clearly a very specific model for biologic precursor design, protein folding.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
Is the number of foundational models in the future, Sergey, a multiple of what they are today, the same, something in between?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
What do you think about the open source, closed source thing? Has there been big philosophical movements that change your perspective on the value of open source? We're still waiting on this open AI. We haven't seen it yet, but theoretically it's coming.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
And then the answer is just spoken to you. I mean, by the way, just to build on this, it was Friday, right? Neuralink got breakthrough designation for their human brain interface. Right. That's a very big step in allowing the FDA to clear everybody getting an implant.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
Yeah, there's a moment of insecurity, maybe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
But sure, you should have access to... Quasi-infinite, stateful, and then multiple sessions so that you can have 19 of these things, 20 of these things running in real time. Eventually it'll evolve itself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
There's a rumor that internally there's a Gemini build that is a quasi-infinite context. Is it a valuable thing? Say what you want to say, bud.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
When you guys build stuff, do you care that you have this pathway to NVIDIA? Or do you think eventually that'll get abstracted and there'll be a transpiler and it'll be NVIDIA plus 10 other options, so who cares? Let's just go as fast as possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
You can also stack them. This is like Nico's company, Eleven Labs. It's an exceptional TTS, STT stack. There are other options. Whisper is really good at certain things, but this is where I kind of believe you're going to get this like compartmentalization, where there'll be certain foundational models for certain specific things. You stack them together. You kind of deal with the latency.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
And it's like pretty good because they're so good. Like Whisper and Eleven, for those speech examples that you're talking about, are fucking kick-ass. I mean...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
Daddy did a PR? What happened?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
But on the other side of it, I would say it's pretty amazing that some junior muckety-muck can basically look at you and say, hey, go yourself. No, but I'm serious.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
Are there parts of the AI stack that interest you more than others right now? Are there certain problems that are just totally captivating you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
So as you have those moments, and then you go home to your just life as a dad, Have you gotten to the point where you're like, what will my children do? And are they learning the right way? And should I totally just change everything that they're doing right now? Have you had any of those moments yet?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
Are there areas where you would tell your son, look, don't, or not yet?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
You know, my son is a rising junior, and his entire focus is he wants to go to an SEC school because of the culture. And two years ago, I would have panicked. And I would have thought, should I help him get into a school, this school, that school? And now I'm like, that's actually the best thing you could do. Be socially well-adjusted, psychologically deal with different kinds of failures.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
Enjoy a few years of exploration. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
But have you seen anything lately? And do you believe in the humanoid form factor robots or do you think that's a little overkill?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
You couldn't vibe code on the Gemini code.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
But on the other side of it, I would say, it's pretty amazing that some junior muckety-muck can basically look at you and say, hey, go f*** yourself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
That's a sign of a healthy culture, actually.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Back in 2003, when JD graduated from high school, this was after the Twin Towers had come down and we had gotten involved in the Iraq War, he was gung-ho to go fight America's enemies, and he enlisted in the Marine Corps. and went off to serve in the Middle East, eventually he came to realize that that war was a mistake.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Let me... go in a different direction. Just in the last couple of days, Dick Cheney endorsed Kamala Harris for president. And that endorsement was warmly embraced by Kamala Harris and the Democrats. The same people called him a war criminal like three years ago. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Well, yeah, I'm old enough to remember back in 2008, Obama first beat Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary because he had opposed the Iraq War and she had supported it. And then he got elected president of the United States. And the whole country seemed to recognize that the Iraq War had been a disaster. It destabilized the Middle East.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
You know, I don't need to go through all the litanies of horribles that happened from it. But there seems to be a widespread recognition. And like you're saying, Dick Cheney was kind of demonized as this... like the Darth Vader, Prince of Darkness type figure, which I think basically was right. I mean, he was the principal architect of the Iraq war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
On a separate track, a few weeks ago, we had Bobby Kennedy endorse Donald Trump. So you now have a dynamic where the Bush Republicans are now Harris Democrats and the Kennedy Democrats are now Trump Republicans. Clearly, Something big is happening in our politics here. Can you explain this realignment? How do you see it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
And I thought that that really represents one of the traits that we really want in a vice president or someone next to the president, which is that he had the patriotism and the courage to go serve America, but also the wisdom to realize when America shouldn't get involved in a war. So I want to just...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
The other, like I said, almost contradiction that JD represents is that he had worked in the tech industry. He had been a venture capitalist. He had been in rooms like this and he understands what it takes to make America a more innovative place. At the same time, he comes from a part of the Midwest, Appalachia.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
That's a very poor part of the country and did not grow up in a privileged environment at all. And he still remembers those people and he represents those people. And I think his ability to understand both parts of the country makes him, I'd say, a pretty unique political figure. So with that, let me stop. And do you want to react to any of that? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah, well, I want to wrap this up because I think we're basically out of time by just observing that both Donald Trump and J.D. Vance have been on this podcast. And it's not because I'm a crazy right winger. It's because we invited them. Not just because. Not just because. It's because we invited them and they accepted. We have similarly invited Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
So we're still waiting. He said yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
So we want to be on this call. Yeah. We want to re extend the invitation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
To both Kamala Harris and Tim Waltz. You're welcome to come on the podcast anytime. And the format will be similar.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
I think you've had like three follow-ups on J6. First of all, Freeberg, you never got a chance to ask your question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Well, do we actually need a big introduction here? But I'll give a few.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
So they'll have fun. I'll say a couple of things about JD because he's a friend. I think what I think really made me want to support JD for Senate and also for the VP position. is that I think he represents two, you could almost say, contradictions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Give or take a billion?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
When we were watching you work, David and I and Antonio, in that first month at Twitter, which was all hands on deck, and you were doing zero-based budgeting, you really quickly got the cost under control. And then miraculously, everybody said, this site will go down and you added 50 more features.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
It's really... It's the most miserable place on Earth. Disney's the happiest. This is the anti-Disney. But if we were to go into government, you went into the Department of Education, or pick the department. You've worked with a lot of them, actually. You can't go in there and say, okay, we get it. But...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
If you could just pair two, three, four, 5% of those organizations, what kind of impact would that have?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Ideally, but compounding every year, two or 3% a year, I mean, it would be better than what's happening now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Are they climbing the wall to get out or come in?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Well, in four years, if you could shrink the size of the government with Trump, what would be a good target? Just in terms of like ballpark.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah. On me. So we'll keep the post office.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I was saying low digits every year for four years would be palatable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
You've talked to him about it, yeah?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
That stamp is really hard. Approved.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah. And do you think you might have to move it to a different jurisdiction to move faster?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah, interesting. And if we don't do it, other countries could do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I mean, they're so far behind us, but theoretically, there's a national security, you know, justification here if somebody can put their thinking caps on, like, do we want to have this technology that you're building, the team's working so hard on, stolen by other countries, and then, you know, maybe they don't have as much red tape.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
How's the Optimus project going? I remember when you talked last, and you said this publicly, that it's in doing some light testing inside the factory. Yeah. So it's actually being useful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
What's the build of materials and when, you know, for something like that at scale, so when you start making it like you're making the Model 3 now and there's a million of them coming off the factory line, what would they cost? $20,000, $30,000, $40,000, you think? Yeah, I mean, I've discovered really that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah, and that's a decade-long journey, maybe?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
So you're in year two of that, if you did two or three years per iteration or something, it's a decade-long journey for this to hit some sort of scale.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And at that price point, everybody can afford one on planet Earth. I mean, it's going to be that one-to-one, two-to-one. What do you think, ultimately, if we're sitting here in 30 years, the number of robots on the planet versus humans?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I think everybody talks about all the projects you're working on, but people don't know you have a great sense of humor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Oh, you do. You do. People don't see it, but I would say, I know for me, the funniest week of my life, or one of the funniest, was when you did SNL, and I got to tag along. Maybe you saw it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Maybe behind the scenes, some of your funniest recollections of that chaotic, insane week when we laughed for 12 hours a day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
We should just give him one or two. In your mind, which one do we regret most? Not getting on air.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I mean, it was a little spicy. It was a little funny.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
It's been a lie all these years. All these years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And this, we're pitching this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
We have a joke going that he's Butters and I'm Cartman.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
They're watching this, and on the Zoom, they're aghast at Eli's pitch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And then Elon explains the punchline, which is... Yes, exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And I pitch. I'm like, and then Kate McKinnon walks out. Yeah, exactly. And I'm like, oh no, but you haven't heard half of it. So Kate McKinnon comes out and she says, Elon, I expected you would have a bigger cock.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And then Eli says, I'm really enjoying shrugging your pussy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
They're looking at us like, oh my God, what have we done inviting these lunatics on the program?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
It's Mother's Day. We might not want to go with this one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
So, yeah. Yeah, that was... That's the cold open that didn't make it. We didn't get that on the air. But we did fight for Doge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And we got Doge on the air.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And so Elon wanted to do Doge. This is the other one. And he wanted to do Doge on late night. And he says, hey, J. Cal, can you make sure?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
You bring me on my daughter's wedding.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I'm a bit concerned, as your friend, that you're going to go to one of these countries and I'm going to wake up one day and you're going to get arrested and I'm going to have to go bail you out or something. This feels very acute.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
They had great potential. So they come to me and I'm talking to Colin and Joe, who's got a great sense of humor and he's amazing, he loves Elon. And he's like, we can't do it because of the law and stuff like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
The law and liability. So I said, it's okay. Elon called Comcast and he put in an offer and they just accepted it. He just bought NBC, so it's fine. Yeah. And Colin Jost looks at me, so good, and he's like, you're serious? I'm like, yep, we own NBC now. And he's like, okay, well, that kind of changes things, doesn't it? I'm like, absolutely, we're a go on Doge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
And then he's like, you're fucking with me. And I'm like, I'm fucking with you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Or are we? It was the greatest week of, and that is like two of 10 stories.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
But it was, and I was just so happy for you to see you have a great week of just joy and fun and letting go, because you were launching rockets, you're dealing with so much bullshit in your life, to have those moments, to share them and just laugh, it was just so great. And more of those moments. I think we gotta get you back on SNL. Who wants him back on SNL one more time?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
All right, ladies and gentlemen, our bestie, Elon Musk.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I mean, it's not a joke now. Like, they're literally saying, like, you know, it's not just Biden saying, like, we have to look into that guy. Now it's become quite literal. Like, this, I don't know, who was the guy who just wrote the, was it the Guardian piece about, like?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
What are they protecting, exactly?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
But the premise here is that you bought this thing, this online forum, this communication platform, and you're allowing people to use it to express themselves, therefore you have to be jailed. I don't understand the logic here. What do you think they're actually afraid of at this point? What's the motivation here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
How are you doing, brother? You keeping busy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Right, and some of these European... That's it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
It's pretty straightforward.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Also very straightforward.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I mean, there are European countries that don't want people to promote Nazi propaganda.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
They have some sensitivity to it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
In those countries, if somebody puts that up, you take it down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
But they typically file something and say, take this down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
It's definitely a simulation. We've agreed on this at this point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
We'll have teleportation by that time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yes, the ratings are high. How are the freedom of speech wars going? This is a, you've been at war for two years now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
I mean that's the, That's the confounding part here, is we're acting against our own self-interest. You know, when you look at, we do have to make, putting aside fresh water, but hey, you know, the rocket makes a lot of noise.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
So I'm certain there's some complaints about noise once in a while, but sometimes you want to have a party, or you want to make progress, and there's a little bit of noise, therefore, you know, we trade off a little bit of noise for massive progress, or even fun.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
When did we stop being able to make those trade-offs? But talk about the difference between California and Texas, where you and I now reside. Texas, you were able to build the Gigafactory. I remember when you got the plot of land. It seemed like it was less than two years when you had the party to open it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
The price of freedom of speech is not cheap, is it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Is there anywhere on the planet that would go faster? Is like China faster than that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Got it. So Texas, China, 11 and 14 months. California, how many months?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Which was the biggest building in America?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Yeah, or it was the biggest at the time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Okay, three Pentagons and counting. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
So tell us about this transition into tech and investing and venture. What was that journey and what attracted you to that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
How did that come about?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
What themes, Nico, have you invested in that today you would not invest knowing what you know today?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
political landscape in Europe. There was a pretty important election in Germany. It seemed to kind of go down the middle. What goes of Europe? What's happening in Europe? The investability of Europe, the ability to do business in Europe. What do European industrial businesses do? There's a ton of skill. There's a ton of cash. When you talk to those folks, what do you tell them?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
It's a really good question. I actually think industrials... And yacht chargers, right? Yes. Industrials, I would. Industrials, I think there's tremendous skill. Outside of industrials, I think it's hard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
You don't want her to get into the family business? No, no, no, no. What are some investments that you're really excited by?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
It's like scale AI for automotive in some ways, right? For part of the business, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
Answer this question if you could. You said generational talent. I'll try my best. So if we had to design some kind of a model, could you define the features that he had when he was six, seven, or eight years old that could have predicted how good it was?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
It's boring to find the Jedi Knights. Do you think that you could design something where people's kids could come and take some kind of test? You look at your reflexes, or your eye twitch speed, or the way your brain works. And is there a pattern, do you think, that genetically predisposes some people to just be exceptional?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
That was the Verstappen rumor to go to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
What do you think Netflix did right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
No, I don't want to go into that kind of stuff. Don't be too yourself in Miami.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
Yeah, what did they get right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
100%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
Actually, Nico, can you talk about that? In that period, he's so dominant, but the car is so dominant, and then you win. What is it like where you're teammates with your biggest competitor? What is that dynamic like, that psychological dynamic? Are you friends? Are you guys friends?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
Yeah, like real hate. I can see the contempt. Do you talk during the week or you don't even really interact?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
justify yourself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
But you keep working together. Yeah, I wasn't going to say it. How much of that fed your decision to retire literally days after you won the... That was a little... I think that caught some people off guard. Can you just tell us what happened there?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
Has there been a good ROI for the car companies that have invested in F1 in that all this money that they spend, other than the notoriety, are they inventing things that we all use and see and interact with day to day in our own daily driving experience or not really? So you probably will be driving an AMG at some point?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
There you go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
There's a lot of games and it's slow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
I'll tell you this crazy anecdote. I was a co-owner of the Warriors. I sold two years ago. A friend of ours is in the market for a sports team. And he went to Europe to look at a bunch of soccer teams. And then we were all having dinner. And his bankers produced this study that showed exactly this problem, which is young people Their attention span is shrinking.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
As it shrinks, there are certain sports they just cannot watch anymore. And it's totally correlated. The negative viewership in baseball. The increase in the use of clips. So people are willing to watch baseball clips. They will not watch a baseball game to save their life. People will watch basketball clips. They won't watch basketball games.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
And so it's this weird construction. But in some ways, F1 is very set up for this already, naturally. People don't really watch the whole sport as much as they want to watch clips, I'm guessing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
It's a lot of hours.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
Are you trying to say how boring it looks?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
But you guys also have a lot of data telemetry. You can feed that kind of anxious mind. And there's no brakes. It just goes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
OK, so we're going to talk about tariffs in a sec. So double-clicking to Transition, what did you find that was so interesting?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Like the rubber chicken dinners.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
And Howard, was that when you conceived originally Doge in that initial, was that during the transition?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Isn't that he's just totally wired to understand that moment, like, of being a public figure? Or, like, what is it that's so unique about what constitutes the ability to navigate that over 40 years? I think it...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Only one. Only one. And that was Matt. What happened with Matt Howard? How did that process happen?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
I think that that's really well said. Okay, let's put a pin in this. So let's, Howard, explain to us global trade as you understand it and then the context of tariffs and maybe historically and what role they play now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Okay, so that's an incredible context now for tariffs. It's like, it was a long-term strategy that essentially says, okay, great. There's rebuilding to be done, sort of almost out of the largesse of America. We're gonna enable that to happen. So we'll lower tariffs here. And we'll support the high tariff regimes over there. We let it happen. We let it happen. On purpose.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
But it's an incredible thing you're also saying, though, which is that it's inexorably linked to this repetitive machinery of war. Because those create these boundary conditions over and over again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Where there's so much destruction abroad that America then feels compelled to have to do this. Correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Howard, let's just go back one second. You have this deep relationship with them. You guys are friends. Scott Besant told us this story that about 18 months ago though, he saw all this data about what was happening under Biden. And he was just so concerned that these deficits and debts were getting so out of control. He went to the president and said, how can I help? Can I help? That's a story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Howard, what do you want to do about the narrow set of products that are more high value than the mango? that maybe can't be made here, or at least can't be made here in the next five to 10 years. So TSMC can make chips. I think that's great. ASML, who makes the extremely complicated lithography machines, as an example, can't necessarily do that for another five or six years here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
So there's these narrow cases where tariffs can exploit a market or perturb a market where there is no multi-vendor solution. But that's still critical. How do you think about that? set of stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
But was there a moment for you that was like rooted in something other than friendship? Like was there something on the ground where you said, hold on a second, this is a train wreck and we need to do something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
And this is what I'm trying to do. Speaking of potentially great ideas, can you tell us about the Trump card? Sure. Whose idea was that? And how did that come about?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Do you want to tell people just the rough terms?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
I think a million is reasonable. I mean, look, as an outsider who came in and got his green card and then got his citizenship and now pay global tax every which way known to man, if this were available 15 years ago after the Facebook IPO, that's what I would have done. It would have been much better for me, theoretically. Now, I'm happy to pay the taxes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
I mean, I'll tell you a quick story. Monday night, Elon was telling us about this, me and Sax. And one of the things he's saying is he's been helping you build this site. He's building it for me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
But one of the most difficult parts of it is it turns out like all of the CPB infrastructure to do all these checks, it's like a lot of COBOL mainframes and the amount of technology that has to get rewritten. And so this is a question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
It's incredible that the most advanced nation in the world deployed systems in 1970, which at the time probably felt very cutting edge to everybody in the room at the time. But to your point, has not evolved in the last 50 years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
These companies to basically like do right for America and build a software for you You think that's gonna be a movement throughout the government or is that here's the idea?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Talk to us about some of the hot button markets that you're going to have to navigate. You know, you are in charge of export controls, which is a very important thing in AI. We don't allow export licenses for the most advanced NVIDIA chips. We don't want training necessarily to be done outside of the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
We're okay with inference happening outside the United States in certain conditions. Maybe just talk about that for a second. How are you going to navigate AI? How do you think about that from your seat?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
No, let's just do this. Let's roll because he's on fire. You're already running, right? He's on fire.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Articulate the standards, articulate sort of the concept, and then let a lot of these private market actors kind of help fill in the gaps.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Great segue. Let's sort of segue now to a couple of things that we can enjoin together in this concept. Crypto, obviously, Bitcoin, you guys announced the strategic Bitcoin reserve. But broadly speaking, you also announced this idea of the sovereign wealth fund. Can we talk about that? What is the vision behind that? How do you want that to be executed? How do you think it should be run?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
What assets are on the table? What assets and strategies should never be on the table? How are you thinking about it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Had you ever donated to candidates at all?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
He's like this all the time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
We have dinner at, like, Nakash's house. He's a good friend of ours. Runs Palo Alto Networks. And Howard's like, you just push the button. And you can just sit and just listen. And you can listen to him for hours.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Howard, thanks for being here. Thanks for joining myself and David Freeberg on the All In podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
I want to take a step back before we talk about today and instead talk about your friendship with the president, how it started, how you guys got to know each other, and walk us through the moment when you, frankly, went out on a limb a little bit, stepped up, became the campaign finance chair, and then just that evolution.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let me let me ask you a question. So if they if they end up facing the terminal nature of this, which is if we don't put someone in that can win, we lose. We are not going to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let's assume let's assume that they take a read of the polls. They take a read of the nation. They actually do a real look at the circumstances on the ground, which is that she is not going to win. If they looked at that and they said, you know what? We need to win. And some sense comes into the head of the leaders of the Democratic Party. And they say, who can win?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And a person like Jamie Dimon polls that he can win. There is a chance, I think, that maybe they say, this is how we're going to get back to the White House.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think it's a really good point. What we'll see – is just how rational the Democratic Party leadership is. Are they going to continue to play based on insider first principles, or will they actually take a first principles point of view on how do we win the election? And I think it will be very revealing about how the leaders of the Democratic Party think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
based on the decision they make and their donors. Well, I don't know if that's true, because I actually think that there's a risk that donors are fleeing the ship, right? Yeah, there's a rift between the donor class and the Democratic Party leadership, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And by the way, sacks, what you're saying is probably right. But I think it could actually end up being a signal that there might be a change in how the who the donors end up supporting the next go around for to realize this leadership change in the Democratic Party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let your winners ride. Rain Man, David Sackett.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Great. How are you? You look so relaxed. Look at you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
We're definitely going to be talking about the changing landscape of American politics. So we are going to have some representation there to have that conversation. We're going to be talking about the future of media. We're going to be doing some really cool technology deep dives in areas like robotics, age reversal, eVTOLs, and talking a lot about AI meets enterprise software.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
My advice to the Democrats is to embrace an outsider. Give the people what they want. Freedom of choice. Freedom to elect a leader and bring someone in that falls outside of the traditional political spectrum that does not want to hold public office because it's not their career. They can bring money to the table.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
They can bring credibility to the table and they can win votes and compete effectively against Trump. If your goal is to retain the White House, Kamala or Joseph Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Jamie Dimon. Jamie Dimon. Bob Iger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You know what you're doing right now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I'm not speaking about realism. I'm speaking about what it would take to win. If they actually want to have a shot at winning, someone that could win a popular vote, someone that could actually win votes away from Trump, because you can't introduce someone like Whitmer or Moore this late in the season when no one in the United States knows who the heck this person is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
When you have someone with credibility, with economic and business success, with executive authority, with capital and connections into the Democratic Party, but isn't part of the political machine that you and many others in the Democratic Party are now starting to hate. Let's go have an opportunity to actually win. Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And if they were smart and they got their shit together, they would say, you know what? It's time for a change. Just like the Republicans had to do when Trump stepped into the party. Bingo.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So we have a number of... the leading enterprise software CEOs joining us for conversations on that front. So it's shaping up to be really amazing programming. Like Jason said, we held back 400 tickets from the initial batch and we're going to release 100 this week. So put an application in, we're trying to be selective and it's going to be amazing. The parties are going to be awesome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So I'm really excited how it's coming together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The first night of the summit, we've rented out a bunch of great restaurants around town in LA, and we're putting people together for dinner at all these different restaurants. And then the parties are nights two and three. which are going to be, you know, beautifully done. It's going to be great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, so I've said for a long time, we've obviously had conversations about Twitter and shadow banning and some of the other activities on what are typically called social media platforms. At the end of the day, these are all, as I've shared in the past, my belief is they're all content companies. They have a choice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
as executives and editors of those companies to decide how to editorialize the content on their platforms. They can choose to create content with writers that they pay on staff, like a newspaper might. They can choose to create content with actors and directors that they pay to create novel
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
video series for them like HBO might, or they can choose to make content creation available to third parties that don't get paid like users. And at the end of the day, what they choose to do with that content and how they choose to display that content is up to them as an editorial platform that is ultimately creating content for other consumers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I don't view that user-generated content platforms are a right of the consumers to have access to share their thoughts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
They have the internet to do that, and they have many other places that they can go to, to create blogs, to create websites, to do whatever else they wanna do to express themselves, but to have a technological platform that lets them submit content, that then the editors get to decide how and where they show that content,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think they should understand because it's in the terms and conditions when you sign up. So I don't believe in social media platforms as utilities. And I don't think that the government should have any role in deciding what is or isn't on those platforms. This goes both ways.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think that the company should decide what kind of platforms they wanna have, whether they wanna have free speech that allows inappropriate content, or content that might be offensive, or whether they want to have a highly moderated platform to make it more broadly available or appealing to users, it's entirely up to them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I really do appreciate the ruling, because I think that the government should have less of a role in intervening and deciding how media companies create content and how they editorialize that content.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Everyone comes to the dinners, everything. Yeah, it's going to be great. So we're trying to create more space for people to meet each other. I know that's been a big thing in the past in the meetups and at the summit is people love meeting other folks in the community. So yeah, smaller groups.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
What else is striking is just how insular and protectionist Texas and Florida are being. And it's not just with this law, it's also with the lab-grown meat or cultivated meat laws that they've passed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And other states are passing similar laws, which is limiting innovation in the state and limiting freedom to operate in the state in order to protect interests of individuals and corporations that already exist within that state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So it's really important to note, this isn't a good or a bad thing, but those states are operating in a way, the lawmakers of those states are operating in a way that's trying to protect the interests of the individuals and businesses in the state over the freedoms and the liberties that might otherwise be available.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I think we often talk about these states being more free, but these laws and the cultivated meat ban laws, in my opinion, indicate that these states are actually on the contrary. They're much more kind of protectionist. Where's your take on that, Sax?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
You can expect a couple hundred depending on the location. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
It's at summit.allinpodcast.com.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I don't know how much experience you guys have had dealing with
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
federal regulators you have a lot more than i think agencies yeah and i yeah i've worked in a lot across a number of federal agencies in in businesses i've been involved in and i can tell you it is as i'm sure you would expect there's a lot of bureaucratic morass in in these agencies and if you think about it it's because the agencies are effectively under the chevron doctrine vested
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
unlimited authority to create rules and regulations that they then determine are meant to represent the laws that were passed by Congress. But more often than not, those rules and regulations begin to bleed outside of the lines of the intention of the laws when they were passed. And this is because those agencies, by creating new rules and regulations, this isn't some like
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
you know, I have a subversive reason for doing this, but these agencies have an incentive for creating more rules and regulations because they then get to go back to Congress and ask for more budget and hire more people and grow the importance and the scale of their agency. This is the natural kind of organic growth that arises in any living system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And any organization of individuals is also a living system and has the same incentive. It wants to have more resources. It wants to get bigger. It wants to do more stuff. It wants to be more important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And the Chevron doctrine has allowed agencies to operate independent and outside of the lines that were defined in the laws that were passed that then vested them this authority that then they can go and say, I want more budget. I want to get bigger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
And I'm optimistic that this ruling will limit the agency's authorities and limit their ability to create more bureaucratic overhead, more headcount, more individuals that need to now go and administer the rules and regulations that they themselves create. And so I'm actually very optimistic and hopeful about this change. Now, the downside, the negative to this,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
is that there are a number of really important regulatory roles that agencies have come to play that never got passed as bills, like environmental protection rules. And there's a negative consequence that will arise to some degree with respect to health of the environment, health of people, et cetera. But I think net-net, Congress needs to do its job. It needs to go back
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
to session and it needs to sit down and needs to pass laws that really clearly define what is and what isn't going to be legal going forward. And then the agencies operate strictly within those bounds.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Vlad from Robin Hood. He's the guy who did it. Vlad from Robin Hood. Shout out to Vlad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I feel like I've become a conservative. Maybe I'm a conservative now, Sax. I don't know. I may have to sit down and confess to you because I read a number of these decisions and I was like, I agree. I agree. And this is supposed to be a conservative court. So I'm not sure. Well, it's actually, it's not, it's not an originalist court.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I made it last. I'll counter the Rick's Cabaret recession indicator as valid anymore based on the theory of our good friend on the group chat, who I think has done a very good job highlighting that the strip club industry has been decimated by OnlyFans. As a result, Rick's Cabaret is more likely down because of OnlyFans and the lack of...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
shall we say, employee base available to work in these establishments because they make more money working online at OnlyFans now. That was a theory posited by one of our good friends.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Yeah, OnlyFans took all the entertainers out of the strip club industry because they make more money online.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
The cabaret industry. I'm sorry. Please edit that, Nick. And as a result, the quality of the product at the cabaret business has declined. And as a result, revenue has declined. And it took a little bit of time to earn that in. So the virtual cabaret industry. That's our friend's theory. We give him a big shout out. We will. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Didn't you ever watch The Office? I don't watch The Office. Oh my God, JTAL, what is wrong with you? You would love The Office. I never got into it. I've probably watched it like four times.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
I think that the distinction between acting in their favor executive capacity as president of the United States versus their personal capacity as an individual candidate or an individual that could benefit some other means is a really good distinction. I think how the courts ultimately adjudicate that distinction is what's still ahead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
But I do think that the clarity of that distinction is critical. It seems like the right thing, how this is going to play out with respect to election interference. Does interfering in the election constitute one's role as an executive overseeing the federal election process?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Or does it constitute one's personal benefits that may arise if one is individually elected as the key determinant that the lower court will likely have to make? Maybe that gets kicked back up again in the future if there's a disagreement over the decision that the court does make with regards to that distinction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
After we record the show, before we publish, it's going to be a whole.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Biden just went on a campaign call and he said, let me say this as clearly as I possibly can, as simply and straightforward as I can. I am running. No one's pushing me out. I'm not leaving. I'm in this race to the end and we're going to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
But think about it. Think about the strategy. If you're the Democratic Party leaders and you are evaluating who to choose to replace Biden, the first thing you do is you have to double down on Biden. Because if you were neutral to negative on Biden or passive, it's immediately interpreted as he's being swapped out and then you don't have time to pick the right candidate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
In order to have the time to pick the right candidate, you have to first double down on Biden, be really declarative that he's our candidate, put him on media, put him on talk shows while you were figuring out who's gonna replace him and what the strategy is to get that person to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
There's a chance that what's actually going on is a little bit more of a structured strategy around find the right candidate, set up the right program to get them elected, figure out how we're going to move the $120 million that we raised from Biden over to whoever this new candidate is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
So you've got to put together a real plan. You can't just do the hot swap. You've got to have a plan for the hot swap, which means in the meantime, you've got to buy time. And the best way to buy time is throw Biden forward and be like, hey, look, this guy's going to go do media.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
There's a political party. I mean, you can interpret it as you wish.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
If you run a debate, it shows it shows weakness as The party needs to select a leader and they need to say, this is our candidate. Because if they do this, it's too diffuse. It weakens whoever ends up winning. It strengthens the party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let me ask you a question. If Jamie Dimon declared that he's going to he would be happy to take on the candidacy for the Democratic Party. He would call his friend, Warren Buffett. He would call his friend, Jeff Bezos. He would call up his own personal banker and say, we've got half a billion, let's go. And let's have a run at this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
There are certain folks that are outside of the typical political spectrum that might actually have a shot at doing the extraordinary here and stepping up and doing exactly what Trump and others that support Trump don't want to see happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
which is a candidate that can actually challenge Trump on the merits of their experience, on their values, on their capabilities as leaders, as executives, and on their past performance. And I think that someone like that might be the strategist's kind of move to say, this is the one thing we can do that can defeat Trump, because we all know from the polling that Harris doesn't stand a shot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
But here's why. Bloomberg ran against other Democrats. This is a person that is running against another billionaire, which is Trump. And so if you have two people who are now on equal footing and it is the Trump versus the non-Trump billionaire, a lot of people in this country, I suspect, Let them cook. Go for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Let me ask you a question. This is what Trump did, right? Yes, but Trump came in and he rewrote the rules of the party by running. You're right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Just to finish this up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Hold on. Okay, so there's two things there. So just on the 2020 riots, I don't know how you blame Trump for the BLM riots of summer of 2020.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I get you don't like the mean tweets. It's not about mean tweets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And when you have people whose lives are at stake— I think it's far worse to actually have riots going on in the streets. That's what needed to be controlled. How many people— Hold on. He wanted to send in the National Guard to Minnesota. It was actually Waltz who rejected the National Guard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And there were plenty of ties between Democratic activists and the BLM organizers of those riots. Time magazine did a story on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
But I can't believe they're using the riots throughout the summer of 2020 as an argument against Trump when it was the left.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Let's go back to the foreign policy for a second. Trump is correct that he did not start any new wars during his presidency. You agree with that, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
That no new war started or he didn't start any? He didn't start any. He was like the first president in 20 years not to start a new war.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He inherited Syria and Afghanistan and he wanted to get out and the generals didn't let him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
That's his argument is that he did not start any new wars. Has Biden started any wars? Well, I would argue that Biden provoked the proxy war in Ukraine, yes. I mean, you can disagree whether he provoked or not, but there's no question the U.S. has been deeply involved in a war with Russia in Ukraine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yeah. OK, well, look, we did we did support we did support the Saudis in their war with with with Yemen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're saying that somehow Trump caused the inflation?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
First of all, by the way, the war in Yemen started on March 26, 2015, according to ChatGPT, which is under Obama. So that started under Obama.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And he there was a record of the fact that we had nine percent inflation in twenty twenty two. So two years after Trump was office in the world, is Trump responsible for that and not Biden?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Wait, wait, wait. Sorry. Okay, so this is very hard to... Hold on a second. This is very hard to fact check in real time because I've never heard this theory before. Hold on a second. We can have a theory on the pod. Let's have Freeberg get involved. Freeberg hasn't asked a question yet, so let me try to... The point is that... you know, this is like totally novel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't even think I've heard you make this theory on X before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're just going to let him basically cite this nonsense and I don't get to interrogate it a little bit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay, what about the fact that Biden's first day in office, he cancels the Keystone pipeline and a bunch of leases. He makes it harder to drill in the United States. So he reduces the ability for domestic producers to produce. You don't think that that would have an impact?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The question is in proportionality. Do you think Larry Summers was wrong when... Q1, the first quarter of the Biden-Harris administration, Larry Summers warned that if you pass another $2 trillion of COVID stimulus, like they were planning to do, that could set off inflation, that we were on the brink. He said that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Kamala Harris cast the tie-breaking vote for that Inflation Explosion Act, otherwise known as the American Rescue Plan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The cause of this massive 20% inflation we've had over Biden's four years is a secret deal between Trump and MBS and like Putin's in there somewhere. You can dismiss it all you want, David.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're ready to go. All right. Let's go. I think we're going to have twice the virtue signaling as normal in this episode.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
It's all fun for money. Hold on. The supply chain was constrained during COVID and it was healing. It was getting better. And then they pumped all the stimulus in and everyone got these semi-checks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yeah. You've acknowledged that Kamala's unrealized gains tax is a disaster.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
It was in the last Biden-Harris budget. It was in the Harris platform at the DNC.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
They did a search replace on his name and put her name in there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You know, you're saying you're saying it's analogous. The Republicans have an open primary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
DeSantis competed. But he didn't participate. Nikki Haley competed. They had an open primary. Hold on a second. Trump was 50 points ahead. Maybe he should have debated. I don't know. Maybe. No, I mean, look, I would have been in favor of him debating. But he was 50 points ahead and everybody had a chance to run.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The Democrats pretended that Joe Biden was just fine, that he was sharp as a tack, that he was the best version of Joe Biden. And when the primary came and you had outsiders like Bobby Kennedy try to compete, not only did Biden not debate, They basically used lawfare to keep Bobby Kennedy off the ballot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
They did not allow him a fair shot at the nomination, which is why he had to leave the party and run as an independent. Then we find out after the debate that actually Biden is not fine. He's actually appears to be in significant cognitive decline. So somehow Nancy Pelosi gets him out of there. And then Kamala Harris is anointed. She's never won a primary vote ever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
she in 2020 she ran and dropped out before the first primary and then this time around she never had to compete in the primary and somehow she's the candidate the question is i don't think well the question is how can you liken this to what the republicans did having an open and competitive primary so first of all the republicans did not have an open and competitive keyword competitive primary because if one of the candidates refuses to participate because they have a lead
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I was supporting DeSantis at that time, and it was definitely competitive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Their names were on the ballot. I know. You're talking about a very-
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I think when, if you look at... He would have beat them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, hold on. I'm saying it's unclear. I don't think you can just say that they would have won.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I didn't know that you took acting classes. That's interesting. Did you want to be an actor before a businessman or what? Oh, no, no, no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So that means it's not a truly competitive... When Trump was in a crowded Republican field and debated, he crushed everybody. So I just don't know what would have happened. That was 2016. But the point... That was 2016. This is just debate. This is just debate, okay? What about the point that the Democrats kept... other contenders off the ballot. They used lawfare.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And moreover, they lied about Biden's cognitive condition. And then they anointed Kamala Harris through a process that is opaque, and we still don't know what happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Why did they get rid of him?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
They are a private organization. Are they the party then of democracy as they claim to be? Or are they the party of winning it all?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Hold on a second. There were 14 million primary voters in the Democratic primary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
There's an open primary, though. People got to vote for their candidate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Listen, I mean, I was, again, I was supporting someone different during the primary. And the reason why DeSantis lost is he didn't get enough votes. Okay. The Republican primary voters wanted Donald Trump. That's why. Trump won the primary fair and square, whether he debated or not. He was up 50 points on everybody else. And I don't know. That is not what happened with Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
What happened with Biden is Biden won the Democratic primary. He got 14 million votes. And then they threw out that result and put in Kamala Harris because they didn't like his debate. We were in a fraternity. What's that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Right. So you're saying the Democratic Party is a clique. I get it. I think we're talking democracy. That's my only point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I'm not a Democrat. The Democrats said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I'm supporting Kamala Harris. Hold on. Can you just acknowledge that their rhetoric is hypocritical?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I can't resist asking. So, is your acting as a surrogate for Kamala? Is that acting too?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay, wait, wait. Can we get into this? Sure. Because you obviously have like a love-hate relationship with Trump going back 20-something years. Yeah. Let's just go through the timeline here. First of all, I don't hate the guy at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So that's an area we can agree on. But before we get to that, so your claim on borders.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, we can agree on that. We'll get to that. But before we do that, I just want to finish up on border here. So your claim is that Kamala Harris really wanted to seal the border, but she was prevented from doing so by Joe Biden. No, that's not what I said at all. He didn't say that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I'm just – you said that this was a case of a VP who was thwarted by her boss from doing what she wanted to do. No, that is not what I said. Okay, so you admit that she was on board.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, no, no. You are the king of positioning for virtue signaling. Okay, so the truth is she was on board with Joe Biden's agenda.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
If I agree or disagree, how do you know she disagreed with Joe Biden about these policies?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
She has a different policy. No, it's an election year conversion. She realizes what a disaster it's been. So when Trump does it, it's brilliant. No, let me give you the proof. Okay. Her own words. Okay. So she flipped her position. She called Trump's border wall un-American and medieval and mocked it. And this is before she became Biden's vice president. And right around the same time. Hold on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
When she was in the Senate and Trump was trying to build the wall, remember, Democrats tried to thwart that. They subjected him to years of litigation to prevent him from building that wall. And she, multiple times, was on record saying the wall was un-American, medieval, mocked, and so forth. She also compared ICE to the KKK. She said that images of Border Patrol agents evoke slavery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay, this is her rhetoric. I don't think Joe Biden made her say that. She suggested that we abolish ICE and start from scratch. OK, and now she wants to talk about how tough she is on the border.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're positioning as- Okay, so hold on. So throughout her whole time in the Senate, she was arguing against a border wall, okay, in the strongest possible language. She then becomes border czar, or you could call it point person for the Biden administration. And for three years, they gaslit us
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
that the border was not a problem, that it was not an open, festering wound, like the videos were constantly coming out. I remember on the show, we talked about it. And I was told when I raised the issue of the border, that was a conspiracy theory, that Fox News was just cherry picking videos. Remember that, Jason?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Something like over 10 million migrants have entered the country during the Biden-Harris administration. The first thing they did, hold on a second. First of all, we don't know. When Biden, when Biden, no. First of all, we don't know. No, no, we do know. Those 10 million are just the border encounters. Those are the recorded crossings that they led into the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The number we don't know is whether how many more were not recorded.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
That could be 20 or 30 million. Well, you can look up on encounters. Why did this happen? I'll tell you why. When Joe Biden took office, he repealed all of Trump's executive orders. No, he did not. What is it? Section 42? 90 of them. Title 42 stuck around until the end of 23.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And in addition, they got rid of Trump's remain in Mexico policy, and they changed the meaning of asylum so that anyone who went to the border and said that they were suffering economic hardship, which is basically the whole world, okay, could now qualify for asylum. And they were given like a ticket to appear in court one day, like three years, five years, and they were ushered into the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And then there were like nonprofits working with the Biden administration to put them on buses. David, I agree that they screwed up all over the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, that was in private communications in 2016. And J.D. Vance explained, including last night, why he changed his mind about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
This was her position like six months ago, and now all of a sudden she's the nominee.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
She was the point person for the administration. Okay, look.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I think J.D. explained why he changed his mind about that. He said that there was a referendum in Ohio and his side lost. So he can change his mind.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Hold on a second. He's taking a learning from that. Kamala Harris has never explained why she changed her mind. When will the media even ask her this question? She doesn't submit for interviews. And certainly the debate moderators like on ABC never asked her a question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Mark, if she's going to change her mind, if she's going to have this election year conversion, why doesn't the media ask her what is the basis of this? When did you change your mind? Was it five minutes ago? Why then did you support Biden throughout your entire last three and a half years? Why don't they ask her these questions?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
If you were part of the Biden administration, why did you volunteer to be the border czar if you disagree with Joe Biden about these policies? When exactly did you change your mind? Those are the questions that she should be answering. Why won't she answer? Those are the questions that you want. Why won't she submit to an adversary?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I think we actually have found a point to agree on, which is I think Kamala Harris is just saying whatever it takes to get elected.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Vance. Hold on. She stated her true belief years ago and throughout the Biden administration, which is she never believed the border was a problem. She thought the border wall, Trump's wall, was un-American and medieval. And she thought that ICE needed to be abolished. I think that was her true belief.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Now, if it's not her true belief, I would like her to explain when she changed her belief and why the same way that J.D. Vance did. And I think the American people are entitled to know that. And I think if the media was doing its job, they'd be asking her those questions. She's never been asked that. Stephanie Rule in her latest interview did not ask that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And the debate moderators did not ask that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He's been going on for weeks. I know he's not supporting Trump, but. I tell you one, one Republican that, as I understand that you are supporting is john Deaton, who is running against Elizabeth Warren in the Massachusetts Senate race. Yep. So I'm curious about this, because I think this is an area we could agree on. You're not sure. I didn't know that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Can I get your reaction to this story from the Washington Reporter? There was a story, I don't know if it's true or not, but according to some Senate sources, Kamala Harris was considering Gensler for Treasury Secretary. I would call that bullshit. Have you asked her about that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, I mean, the reason he's in that role is because he is Elizabeth Warren's ally. And she has been enormously powerful during the Biden administration.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You don't think it's relevant that she was born to a middle-class family as the answer to how she's going to solve inflation?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Two days ago. I thought you were talking about the RNC.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You're talking about a rally? He will speak extemporaneously for over an hour.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I'll take that any day over someone on a teleprompter for 19 minutes. But David, so what you're saying, it doesn't matter what he says? No, I think it does matter, but I think that I've watched enough Trump rallies, including his speech at the convention where I was there listening, to understand what issues he stands for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I've heard him say good things and bad things about Jimmy Carter. Okay, so let's put that aside. Everyone makes fun of Jimmy Carter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I haven't heard that bit yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And then he also said that I also know that people take a lot of what Trump says out of context to make it seem a lot worse. If you listen to what he says and you don't try to, you know, shade it in the worst possible way, a lot of what he says makes sense. I believe that if you if you want to know why I support Trump, number one, the border. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Unlike Kamala Harris's election year conversion, he has been very consistent ever since he came down the escalator that we needed to have a wall. And that really, that was just the first part of our border security. We needed to have a border. Democrats, not just Kamala, pretty much all the Democrats fought him on that for the last eight years to the point where- I understand. I understand.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So the border is one thing. So you got that. Okay. So I think that he and only he has credibility in this election on that issue. Number two, on the foreign wars, we talked about this. I mean, I don't think his record on foreign policy was perfect, but it is true that he did not start any new foreign wars. Here's Joe Biden. What war did Joe Biden start? The Ukraine war. We could have ended that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He invaded Ukraine? I've argued on the show many times. In my view, he provoked it. He provoked it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
As opposed to Putin. Hold on a second. He forced Putin to invade Ukraine? Come on, stop acting dumb. You understand that we tried to convert Ukraine into a giant NATO base. The Russians said over and over again that that was a red line to them. It was the brightest... But to blame it on Biden is a little crazy. And Bill Burns, our current CIA director, said it best.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
It's the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite, not just Putin, okay? Okay. That has been a consistent Russian policy for over 20 years. And moreover, hold on a second, even if you don't believe, even if you disagree with me, and you say that Biden didn't provoke it, we had the chance to end the war in its first month with a deal at Istanbul.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
OK, and, you know, the mainstream media denied it for a year. It was only an alternative media. And then finally, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal wrote stories about it. It is the truth. Victoria Nuland just admitted it. We could have agreed to a deal in the first month. The Biden administration shot that down. That is why we have the war going in Ukraine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
OK, so let's just say that's a fact. Remember, Zelensky is also incredibly destructive. And by the way, if you care about Israel, hold on, Mark, if you care about Israel, you should be really concerned about the fact that the United States has significantly depleted its stockpiles of weapons and artillery ammunition in Ukraine on a war that is futile.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
155 millimeter artillery shells are 155 millimeter artillery shells. It's not about new or old.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
There's only so much air defense. There's only so many Patriots to go around.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He could only say yes to it if the U.S. supported it. And instead, we encouraged him to fight. We threw cold water on that deal. We blocked it. We should have told Zelensky, you know what? Just make that deal. We don't need another war right now. OK, this NATO thing's not happening anyway. OK, because we're not letting Zelensky into NATO.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
We're not going to let in. Zelensky was just here in the U.S. last week with his so-called victory plan. You know what his victory plan was? Let us into NATO immediately so that you can fight our war for us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
It's like meeting celebrities, right? Stuff like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
The Biden administration, to its credit, rejected that. I give Biden credit for that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Whenever it's inconvenient, you want to pretend that Harris has nothing to do with this administration. No, I'm just giving you reality, David.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
So she was just following orders, basically, the Nuremberg defense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
There's an abundant record. I know what J.D. Vance stands for. There was an abundant record of Kamala Harris as a senator before she even got the VP job. She was rated the most liberal member of the Senate by GovTrack. Why don't you answer Mark's question? It is. The question is, what does she really stand for? No, no. He asked you about J.D. Vance. You ignored his question. Sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
What's your question? I'm happy to answer it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, obviously, I understand that a VP cannot go against what the president wants.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Hold on a second. That fact does not prove that Kamala Harris has a different policy than Joe Biden whenever it's inconvenient for you to admit that Biden's policy sucks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
windowless bedrooms as a way to change the building codes to incentivize more apartments being built to fix the housing crisis converting the problem with converting the plates in commercial this is the gaslighting they try to make Trump seem crazy I mean Trump lies constantly let's be honest then you find out that there's a real basis to his
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
You believe he's incognito? As an example of Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I think he's very sharp. We met him personally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Actually, let me ask you a question about that. When you did it, did you just do it for fun and it worked out to be a great business or did you think it was going to be a great business?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Let's show this. We have this. This was got tweeted.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Wait, what are those? Never heard of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, he was dancing on the grave of your show. So you're saying you didn't have beef with him before that letter just came out? No, it was not a beef.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Okay. But then when he ran in 2016, you were supportive. Can we show that? Let's show the 2016 clip. There's more in between.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Plus, you'd have to run as a Republican because Democrats hate billionaires like you. You saw what happened to Bloomberg, right? You saw what happened to Bloomberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
But $100 million made it to the first question of the first debate. Boom. Elizabeth Warren knocked him out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
No, I know. I know. Look, I give you credit. You're fun to talk with and argue with. And you obviously don't take it personally. And I appreciate that. And yeah, I give you credit for having fun with it. I know too many depressed billionaires, so. Yeah. I give you a lot of credit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Well, we could still go there. Where's Jake?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't think you need much of a theory to explain Elon's views because he's just so transparent about what he believes. I truly believe that his core conviction and the reason he bought Twitter X is because he wanted to unlock it as a free speech platform. I don't think so. I don't know how much more money he can lose in pursuit of that goal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't think he knew. He didn't know that he would get boycotted by all these advertisers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And taking out a huge amount of the cost structure, which he did. Jason and I were there on the first day. The first day he took over, there was an organized boycott of advertisers. They called him anti-Semitic, which is ridiculous, before he even had a chance to do one thing about that site.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Unless there's a collusive effort going on to sort of organize those advertisers into a boycott. I don't understand why you won't give him credit for believing in free speech. That's clearly the principle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't know. I mean, he said, he said before he bought it, that he was going to open it up as a free speech platform. And this is why, hold on. This is why the left immediately started boycotting him before he even changed one policy. Jake, help me out. You were there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I don't see the need here to look past or to look for an ulterior motive in what Elon's doing. Elon believes in free speech. It's very clear. He's run the platform that way. And it's costing money. So what else could the motivation be except his principles?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
I know, but that's not why he's running it as a free speech podcast. Let me give you my counter to that. You know him better than I do. Why are we even having this debate? Who cares? I know, I'm just curious. He's running as a free speech platform.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Let me ask you, actually, to me, this debate is kind of pointless, but let's talk about actually the issue. There's a news story this week where OpenAI just raised, what was it, $6 billion at $150 billion valuation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
um they originally started that enterprise with 50 million or so from elon it was a non-profit then they became a for-profit now there's a report saying that they're telling investors in this round that they can't invest in any other ai companies so they're acting like i mean they've gone from non-profit philanthropy to piranha for-profit company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Yeah, it is a sharp elbow. Sam said he wasn't going to take compensation. Now he's getting compensation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Period. They're not under false pretenses. But don't invest.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
All right, guys. I got to go. Appreciate it, David. Mark, you've been really fun to talk to. So good talking to you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
And so what happens... Just so the audience can understand. So the email is from you to him saying, tell the boss, I said, congrats on his sweep. And then his assistant printed it out and then wrote back to you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Why is it that all the Democrats are afraid to call themselves Democrats?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Nasty. How did he send this to you? He emailed this to you or what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
He doesn't use email. I mean, the guy is a different generation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Is this a different generation? No. At least that's my interpretation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
Because he's doing so much shady stuff, man. I think you're reaching there. Obviously, there's a paper trail. If he writes on a piece of paper, hold on. If I write right now on a post-it note, scan an email to you, there's a paper trail.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Mark Cuban
His assistant created an electronic record. What's the difference? You have to ask him on that, but he said it out loud. I think it's a generational thing. This is my interpretation. I think it's a generational thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
I actually am very supportive of the no tax on tips, no tax on overtime. The monetary cost of those things are relatively not that meaningful. And so it has a broad-based positive impact with a lower cost is actually the reason why we should do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
The thing that I was sort of like puzzled by, when 50 people or 60 people are constructing something, you get this bill that comes out of the House, which has the things that the president asked for, but with all of these other Christmas tree ornaments hanging from it, and it's impossible to figure out what's actually going on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Can we talk about other things that didn't make it in that we thought we're going to get in there? Another way to generate revenue would have been to close the carried interest loophole. I don't know if you have any points of view on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Which is sort of like at an impasse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
of the things that Elon has been talking about recently is that we could be on the precipice of an energy deficit starting next year, where we need every form of power possible to be generating as many electrons as possible. And so solar, wind, coal, nat gas, nuclear, There was a bunch of provisions here that changed the tax incentives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
What's your thoughts on all of those that may change the landscape of electron availability?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
The comment that I made to my colleagues is FERC came out with a report. It said 81% of the incremental energy that was generated in the United States were backed by some form of tax credits. This is not to judge. It's just meant to say that financial actors go to where the incentives are.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
If we change them and we take 81% of this incremental energy offline and you can't get a nat gas turbine, for example, I'm going to announce on Monday we're building a one gigawatt data center that I'm funding in Arizona. I can't get a nat gas turbine until 2032. I can get nuclear from the state of Arizona, but that's not broadly available everywhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
There's these practical investment decisions that the financial community wants to make to keep America at the forefront. It's a little murkier today. unless the Senate understands these nuances and helps us, because if we can't make these investments, then we're just not going to do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
surplus and having an infinite supply of electrons, which is effectively the threshold issue between us and whatever form of abundance we're going to find with robots, with going to Mars, with building AGI. The threshold issue is just, do we have enough energy to do it all? And if as long as we have that, we're going to win. And if we don't, China's going to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Where it comes from, I really don't care. But the reality with nuclear is, you know, we can't wait till 2035 for electrons to turn on. That's just a non-starter. So as much as we have to pay for the sins of the past, then the sins of the past is we turned all that stuff off idiotically, to your point, because of some, you know, crying child. But now we have to pay for the conditions on the ground.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
I have a different question, which is I want to go back to Dave's question on Doge, Senator, which is there was a $9 billion rescission bill that went to the House, and unfortunately, it didn't make a lot of progress. What is the future of Doge as you see it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
So can you just explain that to us? What we see on the website, is that not saved?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
It feels like we're about to enter some form of people conclave for you and your Senate colleagues are going to go into a room. There's either going to be white smoke or black smoke. Can you walk us through what is the mechanics now? What will it be like when Senator Thune brings you together, you all caucus? How does this work now for you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Do you think that there's any... upside or legislative resolve to think about monetizing assets? For example, Secretary Letnick has talked about the vast resources, Secretary Burgum has talked about it as well, the vast resources that America has, whether we should consider thinking about monetizing some of those things, selling federal lands, selling drilling rights, selling royalty rights.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
What do you think about that as an incremental way of softening the landing here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
What do you think is the future through these next 16 months of bills and the impact? To your point, there's a lot of people that came together in a coalition to vote for accountability, to defund and to starve the deep state. And if we continue to feed it, it seems like a traditionalist default. We're going back to the way things were.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Can you talk to us about that and what your thoughts are about that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Do you think there's a risk that MAGA becomes a version of Tea Party 2.0, where it starts with energy, but then there's just a gravitational pull of the establishment is just too strong for the rebels to fight up?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
And who else is shoulder to shoulder with you with the same point of view in the Senate?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
And the number from your perspective, if you had to create a hierarchy just in your messaging, is the number we should take away is that we're about to tune the debt to 60 to 70, so call it 65 at the midpoint. Is that the number that we should be focused on?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
You said something interesting I just want to come back to, which is you said, when the government absorbs all the dollars in the system, there's fewer and fewer dollars left for private industry. Just to build on this, one of the things that I brought up at the beginning of this year, I said the most important thing that you need is tail insurance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
The tail risk needs to get managed at the beginning of this year. And there's a very important market That is a gauge of that towards private industry, which is called credit default, which is what is the risk of private industry not being able to pay back their obligations? And unfortunately, through the course of this year, we've seen the cost of that insurance ramp.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
But at the beginning of Liberation Day, there was some relief there because people saw that a path out of this. And unfortunately, we're back to almost near highs. And it is the market signaling that first will go private industry. And then the second will be the repricing of the risk for the US government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
And I think that if people can really understand that that's the cascade, to your point, that first card has unfortunately been turned over. Now, we haven't seen the implications on Main Street of that. but that's what we need to avoid. We need to get these markets to understand the bigger picture, but we need to show them something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Talk to us about the setup for 2026 and maybe if you want your thoughts about where the country goes into 2028. One of the things that Dave talks about a lot is moments that galvanize some form of populist socialism. This idea, as he said, very articulately, I can just vote myself the money. So who is going to just give me the most money?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Can you just walk us through some political forecasting for us?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
What is the alternative?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Thank you, Senator, for your candor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Transparency. Thank you. I mean, my conclusion today is similar to how I finished the pod yesterday, which is concern that the bond market is not going to take this well. I do think that that puts a lot of pressure on America. And I think it's going to put pressure on private industry. And what will happen as a result...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
is not necessarily that we go bankrupt or whatever, but there is no clear dividing line between public and private industry. And I don't think that that's a great outcome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
I think it's really important for America to let private citizens have agency and do the things that they think they should be doing. And I think that if you move to a place where we become fiscally crippled and reliant on the government, that's a horrible outcome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
I already made love to Nat twice this morning, so all the boxes have been checked.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
So I've done everything I need to walk the dogs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
I just want to make sure, Senator, then, that we're on the same page with respect to the math. If this bill passes as is, Can the general public take the 33 or 34 trillion that we have in debt? Should we add 22 and say we'll be at 58 trillion by 2035? Is that the right math or the wrong math?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Senator, if we take your math and say that we are headed to... Let's take the midpoint, $65 trillion of debt by 2035. I think it's fair to say that the bond market will... have a negative reaction to that. And what Dave just talked about, which is a 5% borrowing rate for America, could be on the low side. And that's the spiral that he's talking about.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Senator, thanks for joining Chamath and I for this conversation this morning. Good morning, guys, and thanks for having me on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
On Friday, Secretary Besant tried to get in front of this, and his commentary was, we will grow our way out. Can you talk to us about what he means by that and what the boundary conditions need to be to grow our way out?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
What are the tools then in your toolbox? So you get back in the next week or two and you talk to your colleagues and now it's on your desk. How do you start getting your arms around this? What do you do starting on Monday or next Monday?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
But here, you can open it up, maybe listen to each other, invite guests in with different opinions, learn something. Specifically with the immigration issue, which seems to be the one that's tearing us apart a whole bunch, there's so much consensus. Hey, we want the border closed, we want it legal, but we also want to bring in a certain number of people and we want a system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
I did my research on this and places that have consensus like Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, they seem to understand that you need to match
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
immigration to the reality of unemployment and which jobs you need but the one criticism i have of politicians which i think you're one of um sadly guilty as charged yeah is you you all don't talk about it in numbers we need this many nurses we need this many doctors we need this many construction people we have four percent unemployment record great job to our politicians and helping that out
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
you know, we can bring in 2 million people this year. Hey, if it goes up to 5%, we're gonna bring in 1.5. I wish that the discussion could be more granular and with numbers, and you guys could actually say, it's not 500, it's 450.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Because if we were in a business decision here, and we do business together, and we say, hey, we have to deploy these resources to get this outcome, but it's so contentious and polarized and not fact and number based. Why is that on this issue that you guys can't just put some numbers on paper?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
62% right now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Why aren't they, in your mind? Is it because they have the resources to not do that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Says something about resiliency, doesn't it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Let me ask you a question. Having lived in New York and grown up there, and then done 20 years in California now, my second year in Texas, or starting my second year, it's amazing to me that you're allowed to build things in Texas, like homes or factories, and the price of homes has gone down two years in a row. And then the other two places I live, the price of homes go up every year, 10%, 20%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
And then you don't have state taxes. How is all this possible when you look at it just from first principles? How are you able to accomplish so much development in Texas when in California the nimbyism, like literally if you want to build a cancer ward for children, they'll stop you because it throws shade on a protected species of flower.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Right. So the input gets higher and everybody suffers. Got it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Yeah, that's a tough job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Well, you know what you should have done? You should have asked him to keep the same number, but just make the check larger and the signature bigger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
I mean, it's a fairly... Why would he do that? Go to Mar-a-Lago? I mean, such a stupid thing to do. He just should have been like, yeah, we're our own sovereign country, thanks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Pretty great. Where'd you get the boots? Any chance I can get a recommendation here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
He wanted back.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
This could be like a whole new philosophy for us. I think we just go right to 60 states.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
I mean, there's a long history of this. Puerto Rico next. Let's go. If they want to come on board, why not? Well, it's an American territory. It's not a state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
They hate him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
The food system is so screwed. Like, let him cook. Let's see what he can do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
All right, listen, your people have been trying to get you to end for 20 minutes, but you know what? Let the man cook. I got to tell you, I got to tell you. Our bestie Phil Hellmuth, every time he sees you, comes back to our poker game, says what a great poker player, what a gentleman. He drops your name. I can get him on the phone right now. I told him, call him right now. He never does it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
He was 100% right. You are amazing. Great to have you on the podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Just so you know, the boots play.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
So great to have you and congratulations on the big win and thank you for your service. Appreciate it. Thank you very much. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Hey everybody, welcome back to the All In Podcast. We're here at the inauguration of our 47th president, Donald J. Trump, and we have a very special guest joining us on our coverage, Senator Ted Cruz from the great state, now my great state, of Texas. Welcome to the All In Podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
And it's safety.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Y'all got to stop giving me a hard time about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
We were involved in the recall of Chesa Boudin, our podcast, and David Sachs, our compatriot who couldn't make it. He's busy working with you guys here. But yeah, this crime issue seems... People have seemed to have lost the script on... who the state is working for, the taxpayers or the criminals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
And in Texas, it's just extraordinary that you've figured out that you could prioritize the people not committing crime and not cater to the people committing crime. I mean, I'm saying this in the most facetious way possible, but it's just common sense. And I think it feels to me like Californians have had enough and it's just going to take a decade or two to unwind it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
But let's double click on immigration since the great state of Texas has to deal with this more than anybody. But this is a land of immigrants. We are all immigrants on this land. And so that's our tradition. In fact, you're sitting next to two extraordinary immigrants, my besties Chamath and Freeburg. What do you believe at this point in time? Is America for the Americans who are here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Or do you believe we should be getting the best and brightest to come to this country?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Was he able to see your success? Is he still with us?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
Oh my God, what a dream for him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Senator Ted Cruz | The All-In Inauguration Series
There's something about the podcast format where you're taking a little bit of time. You're not rushed in six or seven minutes like you are on the weekly shows where I see you all the time. And that's sparring. And you're just trying to get a message out in three minutes, five minutes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
When I wasn't able to use the R word, I would use deficiente for two people, Jason and Friedberg's dog, Marshall Friedberg. Oh, come on. I can't stand Marshall Friedberg. Come on. That little bastardino jumps on the table, eats the nuts. The worst. The worst. I hate Marshall Friedberg. I hate him. I can't stand this bastardino.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Did you get a chance to look at that, or did your team look at that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Gavin, can I ask you, all this stuff where they talk about the... balance sheet questions that some folks have about NVIDIA, some of the accounts receivable issues and stuff. Is there any legitimacy to those issues, the round tripping? What's the real story of someone that peers into that P&L and understands it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Let's just do an economics lesson. Why does anybody invest? They invest because you, let's just take a dollar. you wanna generate a rate of return that's better than all your alternatives. And the riskier it gets, the more of a return you want, right? That's the basic idea. So if you invest a dollar in bonds, you can get five or 6%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
If you invest a dollar in an early stage startup, you wanna get 50 or 60% returns. Okay, that's obvious. But the return that you generate is in part driven by how profitable is this company, obviously. And if you have a 300 person group of people that has to do something, it's a lot harder for them to generate profit and then to generate a rate of return than it is if you have two or three people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So the Chinese strategic imperative is no different than small startups versus an incumbent, which is to be as hyper disruptive economically as you can. So, I think the big risk is not necessarily Chinese, but many of these alternatives will come from China, which is to say that where are the incumbents Most of the incumbents are American companies.
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The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
If you look at SaaS software, that's a perfect example of where there's trillions of dollars. The software industrial complex, as I call it, right? That's like a three and a half, $4 trillion industry. It grows by 10% a year. So every year it's adding 300 billion of quote unquote enterprise value. Is that value that is being created? I think a lot of the customers would say no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So if you're a startup or if you're China, what is the most disruptive thing you could do? Well, you could take a three person team to disrupt a 30,000 person team and blow a hole right in the side of that $3 trillion economy. That's the big risk. So whether the risk comes from here or whether it comes from the Chinese, I think what you're seeing is that if these agents can scale,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
the opex, the actual load of making something will go down by an order of magnitude. And that is, and maybe even two orders of magnitude. That is incredibly disruptive because the existing incumbents cannot compete with that cost scale.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Here's what tariffs do. Tariffs are a level-setting mechanism that fixes a historical imbalance. Look, the reality is that we have had meaningfully lower tariffs for products coming in than those reciprocal tariffs exist for our products going into these other countries. That's true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And the one thing I'll say about Donald Trump is you may not agree with the tariffs, but he's been incredibly consistent. I was on YouTube yesterday. And I stumbled into an interview he did, Nick, maybe you can find this, with Larry King in 1987.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And he ran a full-page ad in the New York Times talking about this exact issue, and then went on Larry King, and he walked through the entire trade imbalance 40 years ago. Yeah, he's been on this. So this is not a fly-by-night thing. So what do they want? What they want is to create the economic incentives to reshore as much industry as possible into the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
They would have sold... More to Meta and more to Tesla.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
The delicate balancing act, though, is that after 20 years of globalism and a perverted version of free trade, because it's not what it is today, it's been perverted, It is incredibly difficult to do that without these whack-a-mole problems emerging in other areas, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Whether it's inflation or whether it's retaliatory tariffs or consumption taxes, all of these complexities, I think, are what has to get figured out. But the structural reason of why tariffs make sense is not necessarily to overly penalize one country over another. But it's simply to say, if you charge 5%, we charge 5%. If you charge 10%, we charge 10%. Nick has a clip.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Just listen to this from 40 years ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Can I just add one thing? That's really, really important what Gavin said. There's a third thing I would add, Gavin, to your list, which is we need to figure out the difference between manufacturing and IP. And I think what we want to do is make sure that we trap the real value back in America as well. Look, I've told you guys this story before, but Thank you. Thank you.
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The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
He sits like a moron. He's so cute. He sits like a deficiente. Yeah. Look at this dweeb and this defecantant. Now, Nick, show them my dogs. Beautiful. Beautiful dogs. Valentina Zanini. She's the breeder of breeders. Look at these two. Beautifully elegant. Oh, look at all these. Those are my dogs. Look how well behaved they are.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
But what does it mean, Gavin, when like the accounts receivable jumps from a billion five or so to like five and a half billion year over year? Is that concerning or that's just business?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
I think it's great. I think it's great they spin it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
They pissed me off. I don't think you should be pissed off. I think it's wonderful that these people lie. I think it's incredible that they just put it out there and it just further erodes what's happening. I think if once Bobby puts a nail in the coffin of pharma ads on TV. Bye-bye, Anderson Cooper. Bye-bye, all these guys. I think it's great. I'm so pissed off. I'm sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
When I see people lie like that. I think it's great. They should be lying. They should be lying. It's great. Because they will not exist. Okay, Gavin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Go ahead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Why do you keep saying independent and then you throw yourself a label that says you're not independent, you're dependent?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Are you truly independent?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Text our bestie and talk to him about it. I think that's a great idea.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
I kind of want to be included.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Did you vote for Trump?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
I think you just admitted you voted for Trump. It's really incredible, actually.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
The QM receivables now is like $23 billion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Start us off here. I think that what folks have stopped talking about entirely, which I think is just worth touching upon, is what is actually going on that necessitated this group chat to be created in the first place in such haste. I have a couple of images that I pulled just to explain what this issue is. The problem that we have is that somewhere after the war with Gaza,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Iran continues to fund these Houthi rebels in Yemen, and what do they start to do? They start to invade and flood into the Red Sea, and they start to block up the Suez Canal in different points, making it very perilous for freight traffic to get there. So what do folks do? They're either forced to go all the way around the Cape of Good Hope or risk attack through the Suez Canal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So what do you think happens? The traffic through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal falls off a cliff. And then you would ask, well, why is that important? Well, the problem is that because of that other chart and this chart, prices start to skyrocket. So if you're trying to ship things, even going into the United States, prices start to rise 30%, 40%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Going to Europe, prices are rising 300% and 400%. If you add that all together, as Gavin said earlier, we're in this very delicate moment where we're fixing all these parts of the economy. The thing we can't have is productivity go down. You can't have a recession. And so if you have a bunch of input prices that go up or trade slow down, now you're bringing
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
the likelihood of a recession to the forefront. So that's one thing. The second thing, which was included in the group chat, is it turns out that nobody was in a position to fight off these Houthis except the United States. The British, the French, all of their naval capacity wasn't strong enough or adaptable enough to fight these folks off.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So the United States had no choice but to attack these guys and reset. And so what happened? Now, all of a sudden, traffic is reset, right? Volumes are back up by the third week of March, which is where we are now. We're back to where they were even a year ago. The price of shipping is now contained. The inflation risk is contained. The productivity hit is contained.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
It's just important to understand. Okay, that's all great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Great. I find it crazy that we still actually, for 95 articles though, Jason, on Signal, we have only less than one article on this. So I just wanted the smart people to listen to our pod to actually understand it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So the point is we're on a shot clock. So the point is we're on a shot clock. People had to act quickly. Here's my big problem with Signal. I think it was a fuck-up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Straight up. I think it was an important set of decisions that had to be made, but I think using Signal was a mistake. But there's very one narrow reason why. And we've said this in our group chat. The Signal desktop app is total and complete garbage. Okay. And when you build apps, somewhere along the way, we were all told, all of us as app developers, oh, you need to have
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
an app on every endpoint, it needs to be available for Android needs to be available for the iPad, it needs to be available for your phone, it needs to be available for the desktop. And the problem is, now, you'll have a computer at home, you'll have a computer in your den, you'll have a computer at the office, some IT person comes and helps you install this stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And now all of a sudden, instead of having one attack vector, you have seven, right? So this is insanity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
I think it's a mistake. And so I think like, you know, let's give it to Scaramucci's. I think we'll forget about it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
No, no, no. I think these are mistakes. And I think, by the way, sorry, the other thing is John Ratcliffe is very clear. There are very clear procedures that they inherited, which is no administration's fault. But there's some security IT person that writes these things. It's approved. And so rewrite those things to be more normal. Friedberg, your thoughts here? Do you have a take?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Well, Hold on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Go ahead, Chamath. The first thing is I think you're wrong about the fact that they don't have an adequate claim with this journalist. I think it's fair to ask, what is the ethical standard that that journalist should have had? If you're added to something, you know it's inappropriate, The guy just sat there lurking. You don't know how it was added, Jason. You're speculating. It could have been.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Oh, sure. Hold on. It could have been injected. Okay. It could have been injected into a laptop. Nobody knows yet. This is why I think just admit what happened was a mistake. I think they did that. They're looking into it. Let them look into it. I don't think you need to have scalpels and heads and all this other stuff. But I do think it's important to say, why was this guy lurking about, okay?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
What ethical standards should he have had? Clearly, he had none. And by the way, this guy is- Oh, no, that's ridiculous. You're so wrong on this, Shema.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Yeah. And the other guys attacked the journalist. So that's what I find distasteful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
But hold on a second. Trump said it was a mistake, too. I don't think these guys it is. It's a mistake. So fix it and move on. But the point should be, what is the mistake? The mistake is the security protocols that these guys rely on. I'm going to just go out on a limb. As expert as they are in policy, I think they're inexperts in technology.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So there is probably somebody that is responsible for how all of these folks communicate, how all of these folks get software installed on their multiple devices, how they get new devices. I'm guessing that it's not them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So I just don't understand why they don't just use their- But again, I'm saying the bigger issue is that they had to operationalize quickly. They weren't in a position to be together. The importance of the issue is getting lost. It was an important issue that has global consequences.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
The good team.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So basically the summary is AR, accounts receivable, builds as you go through this very complicated product transition. But then at some point, it peaks. And then you start to work through all of it. And it moves off balance sheet basically gets recognized and you move forward. And so then that AR should shrink.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
I mean, as long as there's a mechanism for these mistakes to get rectified, it seems like the overwhelming majority of these folks should not have been in the United States and were part of illegal criminal organizations. Okay, so there should be a mechanism.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
You don't see them jumping on the table to eat the main course, Friedberg? No. No. Marshall almost ruined our Christmas dinner. This is why I'm holding a real grudge against Marshall Friedberg. He ate some of us nuts. No, and Allison, Cocky Allison off guard, she's like, Marshall Friedberg, get off the table. Marshall.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Yeah. Six garamuchis in. Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So you're saying El Salvador, there was no due process?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Yes. Then let me ask you guys a question, very pointed question. If you guys could implement an El Salvadorian style incarceration system tomorrow, and it would have the exact same effect on American crime. So cuts it by nine. And I'll give you, there's a four or 5% error rate. Would you do it? Would the benefit of the safer society be outweighed in your minds by the error rate or not?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Absolutely not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
I get that. I'm saying, what do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
The other part of what I would say is the first part of what you're saying is very similar to what Intel did to scale their chip dominance in the 80s and 90s with this Intel Insight program. They didn't really need to do it probably in hindsight, but it helped them support an ecosystem and it helped diversify their buyer base so that fewer people had power over them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And so a lot of this quote unquote round tripping from your perspective is diversifying the ownership pool of NVIDIA is what you're saying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I would say that that's already the case.
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I think it's a good company. I would second. I mean, I think it's a great business and I think they deserve to be successful. Totally true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Do you think that there's any issues? There was a bunch of companies added to the export control list two days ago. Some were in quantum computing. Generally, a lot of it, though, was in the NVIDIA ecosystem. So I think that the US government is really trying to make sure that these next-gen GPUs don't go directly to China, but also don't go to countries that could then redirect them into China.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The subversion of democracy is really the real threat to democracy. To your point, you have the right to elect a person up or down. None of us are choosing to elect a shadow cabinet of handlers to run America. That's not what any of us are signing up for. And I think that's what we have the risk of having for another four years if this lie isn't exposed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
What I find unbelievably shocking is all of these data points now just make so much sense because the through line is, as you said, a coordinated effort to kind of obfuscate his decline. Like if you thought about this in a different way, if you took a 29-year-old and a 32-year-old, would you say that they're the same? Absolutely, right? If you took a 39 and a 42-year-old, they're the same.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
A 49 and a 52-year-old, they're the same. But the reality is a 79 and an 82-year-old or a 78 and an 82-year-old are meaningfully different. And the reason is that because there is significant decline every year, every month, every day, and you're seeing the impact of every week, day, and month, and year as a president of the United States wear on an 82-year-old body.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And I'm not sure any of us would do much better. But the reality is that when you're at that age, there's a level of transparency that's required and we have the opposite. So take Warren Buffett as the counterfactual to this. Warren Buffett is in his early 90s. But what does he do every year? He marches tens of thousands of people into Omaha. He sits them down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
He sits at the front of a dais with Coca-Cola and peanut brittle and speaks for six to eight hours and is sharp as a tack. Well, the point is, if you decide after those six to eight hours of fully transparent, unedited interaction with Warren Buffett that you don't think he's capable of leading Berkshire, you can sell the stock.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
What they don't do is hide him behind the shadows, propping him out in package interviews and all of this other stuff. That is un-American and undemocratic. And you see why, because the importance, as Friedberg said, is so high. You probably do have a lot of people outside the United States
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
really questioning what is going on in the greatest country in the world right now, that this can even happen. And the people that you thought were so anti-Trump, right, that they would do anything to make sure that Donald Trump was unelected, while they're actually not that anti-Trump, they're just pro-power.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Because the thing that they care more about than their hatred of Donald Trump is their desire to stay in power.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The hot swap is going to create a free-for-all, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Hold on. Satire Sacks has a rebuttal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
It's incredible that not a single staff member has resigned. Isn't that incredible? Like, where they see this, Jason, and they have the moral clarity to say, hold on a second, this is really wrong. Not a single one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
How, like, how does somebody who's worked for Biden for 40 or 50 years, who sat in Camp David helping to do debate prep, at no point have the compassion to say, sir, this is not working?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The only reason they have a job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I'm just saying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't think you need to go into all of those mechanics to get the outcome of a new candidate. All Joe Biden has to do is go into the Democratic Convention and release the delegates. Yes, of course. Yes, technically.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
But the problem with releasing the delegates is I do think it creates a free-for-all unless the party then exposes this next facet of their plan, which is that they are so in control that they only allow one candidate to go up there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yeah, that's done. And then I think what happens is depending on who that person is, they'll either... I think the Democratic Party... is probably at risk of a pretty meaningful reset. And I think that these tactics, I think are very much seen and understood by the American people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think that people do not like this idea that you vote for person A, but instead you get persons B through Z. I don't think that's what anybody thinks the election for the president of the United States should be. It should be two people independently. And then when you see one person that's not really in a position to run faithfully,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I actually think that Donald Trump last night showed tremendous restraint and compassion. I think that is the right way to deal with this situation. I think it's just acknowledging that President Biden is not altogether there. So without making claims of a cold or anything else, this is the security and the well-being and the economic prosperity of the most important country in the world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Why are we messing around?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
This also goes all the way back to 2016, because if you remember and you look at the real run up into the 2016 primary, you have to remember President Obama sat Joe Biden down and said, you cannot run. And the reason was to direct the Democratic Party and establishment and energy towards Hillary Clinton, who ultimately lost that election.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
There's a very important question here, which is if Joe Biden had actually run in 2016, you may have actually had him beat Donald Trump in 2016, and he probably would have continued into 2020. This would be a totally different situation for the Democrats.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So back to your point, David, all of these backroom shenanigans and negotiating and gerrymandering and politicking and power broking is not how democracy should work. As messy as the Republicans are, I have to give, you know, I tip my hat to them. They run very straightforward, fair, visible, transparent face-offs between people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And you may not like the candidates, but the process is what it's supposed to be, messy, turbulent, but you see all sides. Whereas this tends to be managed from the inside out. And I think that that is, as your point, being exposed. And I think that's what really has to stop within the Democrats. They need to open the floodgates. A Bobby Kennedy should have had the chance to run.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Dean Phillips should have actually had the chance to run, but they were not and they were prevented. And by the way, props to Dean Phillips, who in a very respectful and compassionate way was telling the truth from day one. And he was essentially censored. He was not allowed to basically tell you what he... He told everybody what he observed in front of his face.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
No, because I donated. I donated and I didn't get anything. All I asked for was a chance to sit down and talk to the president.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I just think that company formation has changed after the end of Zerp. And so I think that that chart speaks more to a couple of things. One is that where typically people were hiring for software engineering roles, which was a lot of SaaS businesses, contracted a lot, and the net new amount of SaaS startups also, I don't think, materially increased. And so that was one big switch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Second is you went through a whole bunch of layoffs at the big cap tech companies as they reestablished profitability. I think when you layered those two things, that explains that chart more than the emergence of AI tools. Just practically what I see is all of these AI tools can add a 10% or 15% lift to an individual person if you are in a traditional organization.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't think these things are the panacea that they're marketed as being. These are not creating 10x engineers. At some point, these tools will be good enough, and at some point, companies will get started from scratch that use those tools and create a level of productivity at one-tenth of the workforce, but that hasn't happened yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So I think that that chart is more about layoffs and contraction in tech more than anything else.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I mean, it makes so much sense for them. So I think they should do it as quickly as possible. We are in the first inning of what should probably be an enormous tectonic shift in technology. And I think if anything... whoever wins in the first inning usually isn't the one that's winning by the ninth inning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And so I would encourage anybody that's winning right now to monetize, get secondaries, take money off the table as fast as possible because the future is unknown. And the more disruptive the technology is, the more entropy there is, which means that there's going to be more changes, not less. And again, I would just look at search as an example. I would look at social networking as an example.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
When you look 20 years later, the people who captured all the value were not the ones at the beginning who everybody thought was going to win. And so I think if it plays out similarly, it's important for the people that are in the lead today to recognize it's too early and they should monetize their perceived success as quickly as they can to the largest magnitude possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yeah, grab the bag if you can. Grab the bag. But what is it called? Secure the bag, sorry. Secure the bag.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
What are your thoughts here? Secure the bag.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think these multiples are not really what's going to drive their behavior. I think OpenAI is running a very strategic game plan to become part of the tech establishment as quickly as they can so that they are in the inside looking out as opposed to the outside looking in. They were able to add the former head of the NSA to their board of directors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
People got pretty... It's how you become part of the establishment. Do you think the former head of the NSA no longer has a security clearance or knows people in the NSA? No, of course not. And I think that there is a group of people that want to make sure that these kinds of technologies and capabilities are firmly within the hands of the United States apparatus and not anybody else.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And so I think that that pulls them closer to the kinds of folks that could otherwise give them a hard time, right, or regulate them, or, etc, etc. So now what happens is when you have Senate hearings about this stuff. It's more likely that it's confidential behind closed doors. It's under the purview of national security. All these things are beneficial to OpenAI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And then secondly, they were able to get Elon to drop his lawsuit. Conveniently, I think it was like on the same day that the head of the NSA was added to the board or the former head of the NSA. So
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The next logical step is now to create capital markets distribution, which is really about syndicating ownership of the company to all the big, deep pools of money so that they are also rowing in the same direction in support of open AI. And so that's what a lot of people don't get. It's not about valuations or this and that. This is about creating a high-level game theory of how to create
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
an international apparatus that supports your corporate objectives. There are a few companies that have done this well, and they are now one of them. The only thing left is to get shares into the hands of the Black Rocks, the T-Rows, all the big mutual fund apparatuses of the world that then syndicate to all the individual investors of the world. And you have everything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You have government connections. You have no real legal overhang. Then the likelihood that an IRS agent all of a sudden decides to audit OpenAI is basically zero.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't think it's cynical. It's like a smart business strategy. Strategy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
We're about to enter the endgame, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
There's an important insight here that I think people are missing, which is that Foundational models are quickly becoming a consumer surplus. Every model is roughly the same. They keep getting better and better, but they're also approaching these asymptotic returns. And what do you do when something approaches an asymptotic return?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You need to change a key underlying variable that you use to build these models. And it looks like one of those variables that people are looking at is how you basically take the internet, not as raw data, but then you actually kind of refine it and refine it some more and then use that as the basis of learning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And what that does is it drives up model costs to a degree that are probably untenable for most companies except but for a few. So I think it was Dario Amadei, the CEO of Anthropic, who said the cost of a good functional model today is in the billions, but by 2027, it could easily approach $100 billion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The problem that that represents for Ilya's company, and I wish him the best of luck, but the reality is there isn't $100 billion for him to have. Google will find it. Microsoft will find it. Facebook will find it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
OpenAI will probably find it. Amazon will find it. But I suspect that these other startups, there just isn't that much money going into AI because the returns don't justify it. So I think the bigger problem that you have is that it's becoming an arms race. It's not dissimilar actually to ride sharing. When people saw Uber's success, they thought, well, this is simple.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And it was, but you had to subsidize losses for decades before that company was profitable. But meanwhile, you had to starve all of these other companies that were funded to compete with Uber until they ran out of money and died. I think that you could make a claim that the AI foundational model market will look similar to that. One startup... can probably win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
But there will be a bunch of open source alternatives. They're all asymptotically similar. And so it's an arms race on cost and compute. And I just don't see VCs having the temperament and the wherewithal to fund hundreds of billions of dollars into multiple companies to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Microsoft has been bundling products to kill competitors for 40 years. The 10 years that they didn't do it was the 10 years when Steve Ballmer was in charge, during which there was a legal document between Microsoft and the Justice Department, a consent decree, that prevented them from doing it. That consent decree came to be because of this exact strategy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And the most famous example that was the tail end of that process was when they used Internet Explorer and they bundled it with Microsoft Windows and they killed Netscape, right? So there's umpteen examples of this. So I think that they've gone back to their old playbook. It's a playbook that you have to remember the executives that run Microsoft have been there for 30 and 40 years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
They know this play and they know that it works and they've been rewarded incredibly handsomely by the public markets. So they're going to keep doing it. Would Slack have sold to Salesforce? Now, look, I'm not complaining. It was a $27 billion acquisition. But the question is, if it were allowed to compete feature for feature, Could it have beat Teams? Possibly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Would the board have made, and I was on the board of Slack, a decision to have tried? Possibly. But none of those options were on the table. Because when you see a product, it doesn't matter how inferior it is, get bundled in, it's kind of DOA. And then you're on a melting iceberg. And so you have to make a very quick decision to preserve enterprise value.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So I think what this comes down to is the FTC and the DOJ need to dust off that old consent decree, read it, and figure out whether this makes sense again. It seems like folks in the EU have more recently read that consent decree than American regulators have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Let me just start by saying that President Biden is a person that's given up his whole life to work on behalf of America in the best way that he thought was possible. He's overcome a lot of tragedies. I think he's worked very hard. He's diligently tried to do what he thought was right on behalf of the people of Delaware and then the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Commodities have finite shelf lives, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You can't rip it out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Enterprises don't think that way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't think we're debating that. I think what we're debating is the sales practice where Microsoft says, well, you need Office, you need Windows, and you need 365, or sorry, Active Directory. Well, if you'd like all of these things, we're gonna give you this product for free as well, and they're going to be tightly integrated. Then when you go to Slack, You have to pay more.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And then you think to yourself, well, how do I go back to my CFO and say, I need an extra $1.2 million a year for this enterprise license to Slack? And then people say, well, it's- That's my point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think you're missing something here, Friedberg, which is like, what happens then when, let's just say Slack, there wasn't a suitor for Slack. Okay, let's take the internet browser example because I think it's better. If you didn't have a multi-hundred billion dollar company prop up a product because they just felt like it, i.e.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Chrome and Google, you would have had Microsoft run away with the core interface for the internet. We don't know how that would have turned out. So by luck... We've had some modicum of consumer choice, but it's not as if Firefox did well. Firefox went to basically irrelevancy. Netscape went to zero.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So there are examples where when Microsoft has done this, they can starve the market of choice over long periods of time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So if your whole point is, well, let's just bet on the largesse of other large companies, that's a bad bet. But I will show you multiple counterexamples.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Again, you're talking about the largest of companies. You're talking not about competitive practices. Find me, venture-funded people, risk-taking people who need a return on investment. Google is the worst example. They have the most indiscriminate forms of spending. I'm not saying that they shouldn't be allowed to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
My honest takeaway is that that person, though, is no longer really in charge. And I think that that was very troubling for me. And it actually makes the last sort of six months make a lot more sense. So I thought the fact that we could not get a response from the White House to be, I took it a little bit actually personally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
No, that's not a counterexample.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The point of a healthy product environment and market is not that one incumbent and another incumbent can create their own crappy versions. It's that you could theoretically have An open market where somebody can be funded with nominal amounts of capital and compete effectively, that isn't possible in many markets in software because of these kinds of strategies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So what you're reduced to are these huge companies with this product sprawl. I don't think those are good products. And I think we're lying to ourselves to say that they are. Google Meet is a terrible product, okay? So whatever they're competing with is a terrible alternative.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And if you try to find a real competitor to build an alternative to it, they're not able to get funded because the venture investor says, no, I can't. And that's the market power that stifles competition. That's what this is about.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Let's fund it. Let's go after it. I don't think there's a single person.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The Zoom example is a terrible one. And the reason is that P&L would have a hole blown on the side of it if they did not have 90% of their R&D and OPEX in China. But for the grace of God and Eric's strategic thinking, they were able to survive. But that is a perfect example of a company that would absolutely not have existed had they not had a labor arbitrage.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
That is not the basis of a competitive and fair market. And you cannot expect people going off to all far corners of the world and trying to do all these gymnastics to viably compete against a Microsoft and a Google.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think the interesting thing with Adobe is that they have a product suite that's used in a narrow field. I think what Sax is saying is Adobe is about a sort of vertical system of record.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think what the thing about Microsoft and you could probably say about Google is, but less so, but definitely for Microsoft is they are these very horizontal, broad, amorphous systems of record that you cannot easily replace. There aren't people running around building nine of the 19 things that Microsoft gives you in the bundle. That's the problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Bundling is when you take a wrench and a can of peanut butter and put them together and run Like, here, you're going to take them both. You're like, well, I only need the wrench. Well, you're going to take the peanut butter. And they're like, well, I already have peanut butter, so I don't need to buy new peanut butter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I was wondering why for someone that had been such an ardent supporter, I couldn't even get an email back when I was consistently asking them to be on the pod. And now I see that it wasn't just one single act. It was part of a holistic strategy. It was the same strategy that boxed RFK out of the Democratic primary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Because could you imagine if this event had happened when he had to debate RFK in the Democratic primaries? It would have been exposed then. It's probably partly to explain how the law has been used in New York state. whether you want to call it lawful or not, but it was a very directed partisan action. And so all of these things are now three data points that are really important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You will not come on an open format show like ours to just speak openly. None of us were going to attack him or try to corner him or box him in. You prevented other people from actually challenging you and directly asking questions of you in the Democratic primaries. And then you try to put political pressure on your opponents.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
All of that is systematically about a group of people that are unelected who are trying to control democracy. And I think that that's the most troubling takeaway from this. I don't think that you should take away from last night that Joe Biden had a bad debate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think what we should take away is that there is a person who should be allowed to transition into the sunset and be celebrated for what he's done, and instead there are people that, frankly, at the margins are acting pretty unethically and at the limit is actually acting somewhat diabolically to prop this person up so that they can keep power.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
For example, you've been in situations where you would expect the team that runs a company to be able to stand up and say the CEO is not in a position to run this company anymore. That's what you would expect if there's good governance and honesty. You know, what was Ron Klain doing, as an example, when he was doing debate prep?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Did he legitimately believe that Joe Biden was prepared for this or mentally capable of actually doing this? And the fact that they are allowing his legacy to be destroyed after 50 years, I think, is really tragic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Satire sucks is into the chat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You're saying the media and the Democratic Party leadership are lying to America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Okay, welcome back to the All In podcast. J-Cal is not here this week. He is off in Detroit at the Knicks game. Congrats to the Knicks. Here's a photo of our boy J-Cal hanging out with, who's that, Ben Stiller?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
But the government put it price control in and ultimately sued the company, went to court and stole their IP and they left the country. And this was a company that had invested well over a billion dollars in developing and launching this product. The same is true, by the way, in pharmaceutical companies, in software companies, in hardware companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
If you wanna go do business in China today, you have to set up a 51% JV where some local company owns 51% of your equity and your IP. The stories around the world
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
I think start to paint the picture of why American businesses find it so hard to develop international markets and sell into those countries, when in the US we make it so easy for companies based in foreign countries to come and sell in America. And that's a big part of where the trade imbalances arise from.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Andrew, I know it probably competes with one or two of your conferences, but let me just tell you, this one's way better. We're going to be blowing it out this year with parties, allin.com slash summit to apply to join us at the summit this year. Awesome. Andrew, thanks for being here. We're excited to have you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
It's not just because Vietnamese people can't afford expensive American goods, it's because it's so much more regulatorily difficult to do work in these countries. They can come in and take your IP,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And so I think that this is like a really important part of the trade discussions and negotiations that a lot of people miss, that American businesses will see massive revenue growth and massive market adoption if we can get regulatory parity in some of these key trade deals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
I don't think the Apple deal is from a standstill. My understanding is Foxconn and others have been working with Apple to actually stand up manufacturing capacity in India for some time now. And I do believe that they probably have one or two model runs already active in the country. So I don't think that this is necessarily from a standstill.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Let's go recruit the people, figure out the processes, find the builders, stand up the facilities, that there's probably a model system already running that's now about replication and scale up, which is why they have confidence in the stated goal. It's not often that Tim Cook will stand up and say, I'm going to do something in 18 months and then be delayed by years. He's not Elon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
He's going to come out. He's going to be very clear. He's always been very clear. So and my understanding is this has been thought about for some time. Andrew, I think you've been to a lot of conferences where for three years now, you've been hearing people banging the table saying, get everything out of China as quickly as you can. Tim Cook's heard that message. He's been thoughtful about it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
He's been planning for this day. I don't think he wanted to be declarative about this until the day came. Well, the day's here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
I like the macro. There's something about China where there's a lot of accounting fraud still, and you can't really trust a lot of the numbers. But if that all gets cleared up, the macro is all right. It's exactly where it should be. You mean India? India, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Well, Sorkin, what's your read? I mean, what's your opinion on the India position?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
If it could be done, you're right. But the problem is, Andrew, the failure rate is too high. Look at what happened in Afghanistan, in Syria, in Iraq, as we've gone in to make you know, regime change, we actually put those people in a worse condition than they were before. They don't end up with American democracy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
After a trillion dollars in Afghanistan, the Taliban is back in charge doing awful, brutal things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And I would be a proponent of, and by the way, this was also part of the promise of the open internet. And I think from a fundamental point of view, the regulatory regime we had in the United States with the internet was driven by this notion that the freedom of information would actually allow democratic proliferation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
You know, we were talking about the Arab Spring, as you'll recall, like that was going to be this big moment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
But at the end of the day, it turned out that didn't work either, that there's something much more complex in the history of a people, in a geography, the deep ties that those people have, that this idea that turning on a screen or showing up with a tank is going to flip the switch to democracy turns out not to be true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
My gosh. There's a lot of resiliency in Alphabet that I don't think people have given the company credit for. First of all, I'll just highlight with the dividends they're paying plus the share buyback, you're basically getting a 4% or 5% yield on the stock. So the dividends are like $10 billion a year and they're announcing $70 billion back on $2 trillion in market caps.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
You're making 4% a year just by owning the stock and the dividends and the buybacks. Then if you look at the revenues, 90 billion, 77 in services, 12 in cloud. So the 90 billion, about half of it was ads on search. And a lot of people have been talking about the decline in search due to AI. That's the end of Alphabet. Here you can kind of see the breakdown.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
What this shows is that there's such significant growth, 9 billion in YouTube, seven and a half billion in non-Google ads, 10 billion in subscriptions with 270 million subscribers across subscription businesses, 12 billion in cloud revenue, which is growing 30% year over year. There's a lot of resiliency, even if you take out search. And so the question is, what's the downside? What's the upside?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Well, the downside is what's the worst that could happen to search what they lose half of the market to chat GPT. If they lost half the market to chat GPT, and the rest of the business keeps growing the way it is, you get back to parody pretty quick. What's the upside?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Well, the upside is they're able to use AI to actually reinvent search, retain the audience and create an entirely new search experience that's chat based or has some chat integration into search. So it seems to me trading at 18 times free cashflow, which is where this thing's at right now, plus the 4% yield on dividends and buybacks,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
plus the kind of seemingly pretty significant gap between the downside and the upside here. It's just such a powerful business. It just seems like it highlighted that this is not a business that's in decline and is about to die, as everyone's been kind of proclaiming. There's enough growth engines here, and there's enough resilience, and the price is so good. I feel quite good about the price.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Waymo, 250,000 rides a week now, growing like crazy, and they're only like four cities. It's crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Zero.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
I've heard a lot of stories about this question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
I think that there is, is he crazy enough to let it all fall apart? Signal that kind of got wiped out this week. That's really what it was. It was the fact that everyone realized that Besant, Trump are not going to let trade come to a standstill. They're not going to let the whole global economy grind to a halt, that they're going to have to do something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
So Chamath, you're the CEO of Google. You've got a $200 billion run rate at search ad business. What's the right kind of integration of Gemini such that you don't massively disrupt the search ad business overnight? Or do you not care and you're just going to do it? I think that's the conundrum they're dealing with.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
They have infinite capital and infinite access to talent. Capital doesn't buy taste. Right. So what do you think is wrong?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And I think that the read is that they're making the indications that they're gonna get deals done, which means that their intention is to make sure that the market doesn't tank. And more importantly, that the economy doesn't tank.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Yeah, I remember there was a guy from Harvard who used to teach a class in negotiation. He put out all these videos and what he always said is like, set your anchor point as far away as you possibly can if you want to get maximal leverage in a negotiation. I don't know what's farther away than 145% tariff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Yeah, I mean, there's the administrative and discretionary aspect, but I've said for a while, it's gonna be necessary to have statutory resolve to actually fix the deficit problem in the United States. And that means getting Congress to act And Congress has not shown a willingness to act. And every time I go to DC, I come back more disappointed. I share the stories on the show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And I talk about the fact that there are very few members of Congress that are saying up and saying, At the end of the day, the first thing we need to solve is how do we reduce the deficit? Then we can address all of the policy issues that we want to talk about. But if we don't solve the deficit problem, there is no policy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
There is nothing we're going to be able to do because the treasury rates are going to spike. There's going to be no capital. There's going to be no funding. We're going to go through a debt crisis death spiral. So at the end of the day, we really do need Congress to stand up and lead here. It is not on one man's shoulders. There's only so much Elon can do without statutory authority from Congress.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And I think that's really important in this budget reconciliation process. And it's really important for the president to also help lead Congress to where we need to go on this. Members of Congress are elected because they get stuff for their constituents. The more they get, the more likely they are to get elected. And next cycle, they got to get their constituents more stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
So it creates an escalating spiral staircase. It's a problem in how democracy operates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
This is the problem with democracy is eventually you realize you can vote yourself all the money. And that's what you do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
So it's clearly a point for, as Zach said, for negotiating to a deal that seems like one that would have been impossible or implausible if you started from a 0% tariff beginning point in negotiating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
In my naive youth, I was very against that, and I felt like it was giving too much power to the president, and I never really understood the wisdom of it until we find ourselves at the end of the cycle, which is where we are here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
But to answer your question, Andrew, Nick, do you want to pull up this polymarket? So this is the polymarket on how much spending will do. Yeah, we'll see you later.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
PolyMarket showing an 84% chance of less than 50 billion being cut in 2025. and only 10% chance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
160.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
That's what they're saying. They've cut in contracts. So that means the annualized run rate of savings from cutting contracts. But what PolyMarket's showing is what's the actual savings in 2025 from Doge action.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
I mean, all of this other stuff has been- Oh, HHS is huge. If you look at their list on the Doge tracker on the website, HHS is the number one department of savings right now, and they've got the contracts. Yeah, defense is on there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And there was some percentage of the market or some probability that people were assigning to the fact that this administration could be crazy enough to tank the global economy by leaving tariffs really high and letting this kind of run. And I think that that's kind of being taken out of the market. Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Remember, what they're doing is they're just cutting wasteful contracts. So they're cutting stupid stuff that aren't necessary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
All the bullshit that's not used or not needed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Well, here you can see the Department of the Interior had a $3 billion contract for refugee resettlement with a company called Family Endeavors, Inc. And so they put that as the number one contract they cut on the website, saves $2.9 billion total. Treasury, they cut a deal with a company called Centennial Technologies, which is an enterprise software company. Saves $1.9 billion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
What is Centennial Technologies? My gosh. I mean, that's the thing. You go into this stuff, you can disappear. Who owns equity in that? Wow. These are all like small. You can click on it. It shows you the contract. Here it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
It's a new thing you've discovered? This is the reason I bought my Tesla.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Well, there's a lot of videos getting posted on Twitter of FSD being on and then the car drives into the sunlight. And at a certain angle, when the sun hits the cameras, the car goes into an emergency disconnect on FSD. And I've had that happen. So I know it's true. I know it's real.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
So it is a bit of a risk with the camera only mode on how Tesla operates FSD if they can actually run a full, you know, never to disengage robo taxi service like Waymo does.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
That's the word on Twitter, which is watch out because without LIDAR, you're going to have a lot of disengagement. Elon's never doing LIDAR. Never doing LIDAR.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Yeah, if you're ready for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Today's Science Corner is on a discovery of a massive thorium reserve in China and a disclosed molten salt reactor in China that's been running for some time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Hey, he got it. He got it. Did you get it, Andrew?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
I don't think we brought it up in Science Corner before, but apparently there was a giant thorium deposit discovered in Inner Mongolia that has enough thorium to effectively power the entirety of China for 60,000 years. It was made by the Bayan-Obo mining complex. It's a million-ton reserve in Inner Mongolia.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And so thorium is much more abundant in the Earth's crust than uranium, which is what we've historically used for fission reactors and what we use today for all of the even new generation nuclear fission reactors. And for a long time, folks have talked about building a thorium reactor. There's a lot of challenges with building a thorium reactor. It's a new set of systems.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
But if you build a molten salt thorium reactor, you can ultimately produce energy in a way that doesn't actually have the risk of a meltdown. It can passively shut itself down. It's not high pressure, so it can't explode. So it's technically a much safer, much more reliable way of producing power with a much more abundant fuel source.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And people in the US have been talking about building these thorium molten salt reactors for decades. In fact, in 2009, the US Geological Survey in the United States went out and did a study to identify how much thorium existed just in the continental North American region. Turns out the U.S. has about 64,000 tons. Canada has 172,000 tons of thorium reserves.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And China just discovered a million tons in this one region. But the amount of thorium that we have in the United States is enough to power our country for centuries. So in China, turns out they built a molten salt reactor. This was another secret. They've been operating it now for some time. Last June, while the reactor was running, they replaced the fuel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
So it basically showed continuous use of the reactor without needing to do a shutdown and refueling cycle. It's a two megawatt experimental unit, and they're actually building and planning to take live a 10 megawatt unit by 2030. So this was all shared in a private meeting. It got out. The discovery in Inner Mongolia was also kept confidential for, I think, nearly two years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And then it got reported out. And after it got reported out, it was confirmed ultimately in a government meeting. And that's how we know about it now. But I think this just is another kind of critical point about this. Once China gets this 2 and 10 megawatt system running,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
This allows for very small, very modular nuclear reactors using a very abundant fuel source that can be quickly built, stood up, and safely operated in a distributed way. You don't need to have one gigawatt, which is a thousand megawatt station running centrally, and then you've gotta have a big construction project invested in to build and operate this thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
You can have many small reactors split around neighborhoods, split around cities, and so on. This is not built into China's energy projection. So they actually have an electricity forecast that over the next 15 years gets them from three terawatts of electricity production to eight.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And that's through a combination of solar, hydroelectric, and then the Gen 3 and Gen 4 traditional uranium nuclear reactors that they're building out. So if you add this in, it provides even more or perhaps lower cost or more distributed energy production capacity than is even provided in the forecasts today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Again, this is, I think, one of the base drivers that is part of the compounding effect of China's economic advantage for this century is energy, energy production, the cost of building new energy production systems, and the cost to operate those energy production systems.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
We put a regulatory fence around it and we blocked it from getting organized.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
They have infinite thorium reserve. They don't need to refine it. One of the key advantages of thorium is you don't need to go through a refining process. In uranium, you have a very expensive, very difficult kind of refinement process where you end up, I think, getting less than 1%. of that uranium that you pull out can actually be used as fissile.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And you have to enrich down to the uranium to find the fissile material. With thorium, 100% of it can be used as fuel. So it's a very low cost, very easy kind of fuel source that can be very quickly kind of put into production if we actually build out the supply chain and build out the energy systems to utilize it. So it's a real kind of reinvention of nuclear energy technology.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And this will take off. I mean, once this experimental reactor is working, just to get the type of reactor going, boom.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Well, here, I'll show you. Here's another. Let me put this in the group chat real quick.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
We invented it. We invented it. I know we invented it. Well, the big problem has been the regulatory fencing we put around in Android.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And just speaking to this point, so we've talked in the past about nuclear fusion. So Andrew, this is, I don't know how familiar you are, but fusion is different than fission. Fission is where you take a heavy element like uranium or thorium and it breaks and you release energy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Fusion is where you take a light element like, you know, hydrogen, you accelerate it, you make it really dense and you jam the protons together. And when you jam those protons together, they fuse. So hydrogen turns into helium. This is what goes on in the sun. and energy is released in a different form through accelerated neutrons. We capture that energy, we make electricity.
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Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
So fusion is this next-gen technology where we could theoretically just use water from the ocean to create all the electricity we need on planet Earth. 10 meter by 10 meter by 10 meter of water makes all the power the entire planet uses every year. That's what you could ultimately do with fusion technology.
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Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
So it turns out this is a satellite photo that discovered a very large-scale fusion research center in Mianyang, China, which we did not know about, that was just kind of stumbled upon. It turns out it's the largest fusion reactor experimental facility in the world now. 50% larger than the national ignition facility run in the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Not only is China getting this new energy infrastructure built with all of the stuff that was discovered last century, but they are now getting ahead of us on the new discoveries to be made in the next gen of energy systems, which is fusion, which at some point this century will work. And we'll end up having this ability to unlock effectively unlimited free energy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And these are compounding value craters. China, ultimately, if they can make new energy systems cheaper than the United States, scale them faster, they will ultimately have much cheaper, much higher volumes of electricity, which gives them the advantage of manufacturing and production and transportation and everything. And that's where the economic advantage will ultimately accrue to them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
So this is, I think, key to the strategic puzzle on what's going to happen in the great race with China this century is the build-out of electricity and the cost of that build-out. So the regulatory constraints need to be addressed first and foremost. That's, in my opinion, the number one mission-critical strategic imperative for the United States right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
yeah anyway thorium that's just a red flag on china science corner for the day thorium is real thorium manor so how was it andrew how'd you like hanging out with the best i loved it i you know i i'm still getting used to it i'm still getting used to the whole flow trying to figure out how you guys all roll but it's good it's good it's a lot of fun do the outro you got to do your out you got to do the outro oh yeah i got to do the outro you guys come on it's your show
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Coming at you. WKGB.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Awesome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Andrew, I'm going to do just a couple of quick plugs, and I'm going to give it over to the pro to do his work, take us through the docket today. I think this is going to be really fun. The world's greatest moderator. The world's greatest moderator is here today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Before we kick it off, I just want to give a quick plug. The All In Summit, if you haven't seen the video, check it out on YouTube and Twitter. Going into our fourth year... The 2024 recap will kind of give you a set of highlights from last year. It's September 7th through 9th in LA, trying to have the world's most important conversations.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Andrew, let me just highlight what I think is one oft not talked about point about the discussions that are underway. There's a lot of conversations about tariffs and about trade deficits, but very little about regulatory parity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And I think that this is really critical for these trade negotiations to actually resolve to a positive outcome for American businesses and American enterprises, because there is not parity. and how American businesses can do their work overseas, relative to how foreign companies can do work in the US.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
So if you're a Indian company, and you want to sell something in the US, you set up an LLC, you set up a bank account, you set up a store, take a lease and you sell your product. There is not a lot of hoops and challenges to that business operating in the United States. I'll tell you a story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
In 2005, 2006, Monsanto, which was a seed company that doesn't exist anymore, launched in India cotton seed, seed for cotton farmers that basically had a trait in it that would prevent worms from eating the cotton. And so Indian farmers were paying 450 rupees an acre for cotton seed before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Monsanto basically put this cotton seed, the yields went through the roof, the farmers made 5,000 rupees per acre of incremental profit. And they charge 1500 or 1400 rupees per acre for the seed. So it's more expensive seed, but it had a 5000 profit improvement. And it took off, took the whole market. 90% of farmers bought the seed, not because they had to, but because it was better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
And what ended up happening was the Indian government stepped in and said, you got to lower prices. You got to go back to the price of 450 because that's what's fair for farmers. And the farmers were like, we're doing great. We don't need to have this kind of price control.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Thomas, did you have a takeaway after the weekend?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
You look like you were in your afterglow. And I have to say, that was looking pretty good. We have some pictures.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Freeberg, did you have a takeaway coming out of this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Armani came through for Amore, the Amore collection from Armani coming this fall.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
He was great, by the way. I love Ted Cruz.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, we're going to get into that in just a moment. And to build on your point there, Dave, Senator Sanders had a tweet today. Nick, I just sent it to you. Already the discussion of like who should take the brunt of these cuts is starting to happen. And he's pointing out, you know, as he should. And, you know, hey, what's going to happen with the VA? And you're putting a freeze on hiring people.
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You know, I was just thinking that. Armani really has been making it happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
We have to make sure our vets are taken care of. We have a shortage of doctors, a shortage of nurses. But we do have people responding to him saying, hey, how are we going to pay for all this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So even if it's going to be hard to do, it's going to take courage because you're going to be faced with situations like this where does anybody want to see VA's budget cut and these veterans who are coming back? They should get all the services in the world. And these hard discussions are now happening. And it's not taboo.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
So the Overton window is wide open now to discuss even the budget of the VM and where is the money going to come from. So I think we're actually going to make progress on it. This was like a sacred cow. And now we're talking about it. To Bernie Sanders' point, I don't know if you saw, there was a note on there, Nick.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Community notes pointed out that Trump put that none of the cuts should impact vets. I thought that was a good use of community notes there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
And, of course, here he is, your sultan of science. David Friedberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Yes.
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Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
It seems like the point of these should be if somebody could get compromised or there was something really gnarly in their background. But otherwise, yeah, let people build their team and then they have to own their results.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Well, you know, it's obviously mixed. I was a never Trumper and now I'm rooting for him wholeheartedly to do great work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
You kind of like him.
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Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Well, I mean, anybody who's interacted with Trump likes him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
There are aspects I like about the platform. I like probably 80% of the platform.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
And I will tell you today that 20% I don't like. I'm always going to call balls and strikes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You know, there's things I really don't like, and I'll talk about them today. But anyway, let's put it aside. The personal thing doesn't matter. What matters is what he does for the American people and for the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
You were happy to be there? I have to say, I had a lot of fun.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I will say, Republicans are fun. Fashion was off the hook. Off the hook. A lot of great fashion, and it was a great party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Wonderful. He's very bitter today. He's got a lot of anger. He is the barista of bitterness today. He's serving up bitterness all day long. And he had a great time at the, maybe he's a little upset about the Lex Friedman triangle we're in right now. I think that could be part of it. And we have a special guest here. Thomas LaFont is the co-founder of KOTU Management.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
What I'll say my takeaway was, you know, as somebody who had concerns, you know, I'm not going to make the show about me. But the important thing for me is who is Trump going to lead with this time around? Is it going to be the people from the sort of 1.0 movement or the 2.0 movement? There was not a 1.0 person. Couldn't be found. Couldn't be found.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
And so to like, on the margin one or two, and they were not the focus and who you put in the front row speaks volumes. Who do you put in the front row? Sundar, Elon, Zuck, Lauren Sanchez, he's got his priorities straight. The priorities were very clear as to what's important for this administration. And I'm fully behind.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
All of his priorities, both of those priorities, all those priorities seem incredibly important to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I mean, I don't want to troll too much, but that's the big takeaway for me. And if that is, you know... indicative of where he wants to go with this, which is business first. We're proud of our leaders. We're proud of innovation. I think he's sticking it to it. Did you see him at Davos today? He did a... I mean, this guy's got just crazy energy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Trump zoomed into Davos and just dunked on them for 45 minutes. He did? Yes. And he just... destroyed everybody at their dying conference in their irrelevance as they genuflected begging him to come next year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
It's irrelevant. I mean, these people are irrelevant now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
All right, let's get to our docket today. And I just want to give a special shout out. We did our inauguration live stream, and it was awesome and fun. Special thanks to Air Call, Abra, and Hymns. Thomas, if you've ever got an issue with weight...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
or you know other issues that men have you can go to hymns and use the code all in to get something hymns.com slash all in i want you to write that down thomas okay in case you ever have any any issues uh that's what makes you think i haven't already well it's anything's possible like i mean maybe we could talk i mean are you on the choose or the pills which one anyway talk about it offline but that's a full head of hair it is a really incredible head of hair
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Or you got promise? What do you do?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
They got a 50 billy under management, public, private, yada, yada. Before that, he worked at Creative Artist Agency for seven years after he went to college. So he does have the college degree. He signed Captain America. which is Freeberg's favorite Avenger. Chris Evans. Chris Evans.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Oh, air dry. Gotcha. So when you're driving to that Santa Monica office, you just put the top down on whatever convertible, living that full lifestyle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Are they real glasses or you just wear the clear ones to get the extra intelligence points?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Akash was hilarious. Thank you, Akash.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
filling in our dei department we lost shamath and they sent akash so he did great get him back to guesses absolutely yeah there's a moderator slot open so he's going to be yeah absolutely if you know anybody who knows science all right in our first topic president trump smashed the record for day one executive orders 26 in all beating the prior record of nine by uncle joe biden
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
No other president signed more than one EO on day one since the Federal Register started tracking this in 1937. Let's go through them. If you want to comment on one, we'll stop and pause, or we can just run through them, gentlemen. Doge officially was established, and... People are making note of the Doge SWAT team. Doge will assign an agency head to each federal agency.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
The agency head will build a four-person team. This will include an engineer, an HR specialist, and an attorney. It was separately announced that Vivek was leaving Doge to run for governor of Ohio. Fascinating. Interesting. I don't know if anyone's got a take there. They suspended the TikTok ban for 75 days.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
There's a lot more to get into this, so we're going to break that down a little later in the show. Let's talk about TikTok. Yeah, okay, we'll go right to that in a minute. The January 6th pardons, they pardoned 1,500 January 6th participants, including some that savagely beat cops. Very controversial. We'll get back to that in a moment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Ending birthright citizenship, this is a controversial one that is being fought legally. Those born in the U.S. to illegal immigrants would no longer be considered citizens if this holds up. The birthright citizenship... is codified in the 14th Amendment and 22 state attorney generals have already sued over this executive order. So it might be a performative one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Energy, unleashing American energy, we're going to jump into that one for sure. And then federal employees, a hiring freeze and a full return to office. And the hiring freeze doesn't apply to military. immigration enforcement, or public safety, and then a regulatory freeze on regulations. Gentlemen, where do we want to start? Jan 6, TikTok, Doge? Thomas, you're our guest.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Where do you want to start? I'm happy to chat about TikTok. Okay. As we mentioned earlier, Trump extended TikTok's grace period by 75 days. Trump said he wants to get a deal done. He also said at a press conference that he'd like the US to own 50% of TikTok, and that it could be a trillion-dollar asset. that's unique and interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
He was also positive about the idea of Elon possibly buying it or maybe Larry Ellison or anybody. So he wants to make a deal
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Yes, and you're still in touch with him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Daily active users, for folks who don't know the terminology.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Now, behind you, we see this incredible view.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
So let me ask you the obvious question. People are looking at this and saying, wait, you're going to take 50% of your shares. And in this case, we actually have somebody who has shares. So are you comfortable with the government seizing 50% of your shares, I guess is one way to frame it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I can tell you that when we- Well, that's the deal he proposed. So if in that scenario, would you, yeah. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Well, the Trump deal, though, is he's saying the government, the United States government, the citizens of America, we get half of the company. So that would be the equivalent of you giving half your shares. The US company. The US company, yeah. So what do you think of this proposal? Because this seems like... unique in all the world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Okay. Let's see what happens here. Now, what's this view behind you? This is Los Angeles.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
So if in order to have it spin out and maintain half your shares, would you be willing to give all of us, the government, the citizens of the United States, half your shares?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
So it's a black box in some ways, you know, in terms of a market to invest in. You only have a limited amount of information. And after Jack, I mean, you got to think after Jack Ma kind of disappeared for a couple of years, if you're an entrepreneur and you want to like... The message was sent. The message was sent, message received.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
And then you start thinking about Chamath, you know, what Trump just did. And what Xi Jinping just did. You put those two things together. Trump put all of our top guys, top dogs on stage. Here they are.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
And ultimately, won't this be the Chinese government's decision? Because they could always say, you know what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Hey, Madame Producer, can you come on the horn for a second here? Are we really going to do this? Yes, we are. We're going to do it. We're doing it, Madame. This is so stupid. This is so stupid. Did I tell you to get Friedberg involved? No. No. I did it myself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
You know, Chamath, to build on that, people don't remember, but Tesla got $465 million from the Department of Energy. That was called the ATVM program, which was the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing. That was a very visionary program at the time. Visionary. But it took no equity. But it didn't take equity. That was dumb. So dumb.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
They should have gotten some portion of equity, some portion of a loan. Tesla did so well, thanks to Elon and the team's hard work, that they paid it back early. They paid it back early. That's how well they did. If they had owned 10% of Tesla, but 10%,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Yeah, it's a great deal. And why not give a little upside to the taxpayers? I agree with that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Yeah. Freeberg, which EO would you like to go to next?
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You're 100% right. And by the way, the CCP has done it already. They did it to Apple. And if you follow what happened when they introduced iCloud, I don't know if you remember GCBD, GCBD? is the Chinese state-owned data company, the cloud provider there. And they just told Apple, we get all the data. And they just had to roll over.
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And all citizens in China who use an iPhone, in order to use an iPhone in China, your data is owned by the government, period, full stop. And Apple had no choice but to do that. So if you want to play in a certain market... You got to play by the rules.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Now, when did I find out about this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Yeah, we'll go right to that after we wrap up these executive orders. And I, too, wanted to talk about January 6th, just to give people the update here. J.D. Vance had said that the people who committed violence on January 6th, quote, obviously shouldn't be pardoned. And this is a parade of people who are on the Republican side who are coming out against how President Trump handled this.
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Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I think you all know where I would fall on this side of it. Where are your thoughts on this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
You know, I come from a family of cops, and I feel like he's betrayed the blue on this one. And, you know, if there are people who, I think he should have taken his time with this. It is possible that some people had sentences that were too long. The justice system you know, is imperfect in our country.
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And the pardon power is theirs, I think, specifically, to do a very granular job of looking at each case, right. And so I think we have to look at pardon power generally, after what we saw the Biden family do. And now we see Trump doing this. So I think the pardon power is not being used as it's intended. It's being used politically now by both parties.
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I found out about this this morning. I found out about this like an hour ago. How are you feeling? I feel 80% of a normal J-Cow, which is 110% of any other moderator. I mean, get yourself Andrew Vore Sorkin. Oh, I'm sorry. He's genuflecting at Davos to a bunch of mids.
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So I'm trying to call balls and strikes here. But, you know, as somebody who's in law enforcement, a family that's in law enforcement, and my chosen career was to be a cop and an FBI agent. And, you know, just looking at it, it's just heartbreaking to see people beat cops and then be treated as heroes. And some of these people are very dark people.
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You know, the Oath Keepers and some of these people are extremely violent. And they're coming out now after this has all been said and saying that they're going to double down, they're going to buy more guns, and that they're going to get their retribution.
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And so I think you have to be really careful with violent people that you give them this coronation and that they were justified because they'll go do more violent things. And so I understand he made this promise to people. I think... He should have been very granular in doing this.
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I totally understand there could be people who got sentences that were too long, and I would have liked to seen him do this thoughtfully. This was not done thoughtfully. I have a certain amount of goodwill towards the new president, and this has lowered it.
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Oh, that'd be great. Hello. I am Lex Friedman. Welcome to the number one podcast in the world. Today on the program, we have Thomas Lafon, investor in such great companies as... All right, listen, enough shenanigans. We had so much fun. We tore DC apart.
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Yeah, the informants stuff, we'll have to wait for that to come out because that's in conspiracy corner for now.
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The Proud Boy leader, Enrique Tarrio, this is his quote on getting out. I'm happy the president's focusing not on retribution and focusing on success, but I will tell you that I'm not going to play by those rules. They need to pay for what they did. These are some seriously bad hombres, the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers. And so don't be surprised if they do something worse.
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The birthright thing. If you came here illegally and had a child, you get to be a citizen, just to be clear.
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Okay, a couple more issues I want to get to on the docket.
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And just programming note here, research note, 6,500 people of those 8,000 seem to be convicted of marijuana possession or distribution.
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I don't disagree, but I think there is some compassion in the pardon concept for how long do they have to wait for that?
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I mean, how long do you have to wait for that? You know, and then like the people who were, you know, convicted of selling dime bags or having an ounce of weed on them or black and brown. And then all my white friends who started weed companies are now taking them public in Canada. So shout out Trudeau. All right, let's keep moving here.
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I think we, we, we've, we did some good job here on the reconciliation on the pod.
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where do we want to go next stargate project stargate stargate stargate stargate and energy yeah stargate energy okay so here we go and i'm gonna go to to our guest here thomas thomas anything on january 6th or controversial topics like smoking weed that you want to jump in on there no okay great sure help your lps just breathed Hey, you're coming on the all-in podcast.
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Anything on Lauren Sanchez's outfit. Okay, let's continue. Another big story from week one. We are literally not even... Three or four days into this, it's going to be a crazy four years. According to OpenAI's press release, the Stargate project is a new company which intends to invest $500 billion over the next four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.
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Freeberg, we got to find out what's going on here with the Stargate movie and TV series if they got IP permission to do this. SoftBank and OpenAI are the lead partners.
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I mean, I'm just thinking out loud. And we have to talk about where this ranks on your list of great sci-fi.
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Okay. Right up there with the Star Trek original series and the next generation. SoftBank and OpenAI are the lead partners with Oracle and MJX. Also participating, Oracle, NVIDIA, and OpenAI will build and operate the infrastructure Microsoft developed. is sort of involved, although we'll see about that. Yoshi-san was at the announcement. He's going to be the chairman.
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However, Gavin Baker and Elon both called cap on X, saying they don't actually have the money. Gavin did some back of the envelope math. And of course, as always, Sam and Elon have been spicy in the replies. Sam is hurt. Elon is dunking. It's just their relationship is so fluid.
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Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella jumped into my thread with Elon saying he was good for the 80 bill and that he was ready to build other products and services and that was what was important. What do you think here, Thomas? Are you an investor in OpenAI, I guess? Let's get that out there. Or in XAI, just so we know where you're coming from here if you're talking your book. I am an investor in OpenAI.
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I think you framed it perfectly. And since you bring up ride sharing and the 80% there, I really think that's an important thing to take a moment to settle on because in that case, you didn't have Uber being challenged by... Google, Microsoft, and Elon Musk, you know, at the same time in a digital product as opposed to a real-world product.
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And so, you know, when I use Gemini or XAI and ChatGPT and I use them all daily and Claude, the difference between the products right now is really narrow. And I think, you know, if the equivalent would be somebody who had 100 million cars on the road already competing against... Uber, which doesn't exist. or didn't exist at the time.
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So that I think is the, the way I look at this as a slightly different type of race. I do believe the chat GPT franchise has some is worth something. But I think enterprise folks, when I talked to them want the open source product, most of all. So anyway, I think it's still anybody's. I think it's anybody's game right now. And I don't know how you get a return on 500 billion invested in this.
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That's the other thing. And I don't know if that's the real number free, but what do you think?
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Correct. Yeah. What did Michael Saylor think of this when you saw Michael Saylor at the, um, at the, you know, I met, I met Michael CFO, wonderfully nice guy.
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It was definitely, yeah, put together with haste. You know what I mean? Yeah, you got that sense.
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You know, I think people are playing to what Trump likes, which is a big number, and which is his influence on growing the number. So there was specific details where Amasa said, you know, you, I told you 100 billion, you challenged me to get two, I came back with five, right?
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And so this is the sort of Trump ethos is, hey, we're going to swing for the fences in a way, you know, you can be critical of it and be like, well, Trump's a BS artist or whatever. Or if you're from Silicon Valley, you can say, hey, listen, he's moonshotting it. He's going to just shoot for the stars and get the moon.
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So if these guys wind up spending $50 billion or $100 billion, it makes us more competitive, more power to them.
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I have no insight either, but- I do think if you were going to be critical of Trump that he was putting his thumb on the scale for any one company or individual, this shows that he's not. It's an open platform. The Trump administration is an open platform. Highest bidder gets to come to the White House.
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Whoever spends the most, whoever buys the most military, you know, buys the most ammunitions from us, you're going to get your time in the White House. This is a capitalist country and this is the greatest one in the world. Equal opportunity. Equal opportunity.
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Here are the besties. Let's be honest, guys. Even in all your bitterness, Freeburg, you felt the love at this moment when we were all back together. Did you not?
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Is my interpretation of that that we didn't have factories? We didn't have factories, so we didn't need as much power? What's the reason we didn't invest or we didn't need to?
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So no factories equals no need for additional electricity. Now the new factories are H100 factories.
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In your analysis, Thomas, can we do this without nuclear?
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Can we catch up without nuclear? Okay.
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So handsome, that Diego.
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This was the crypto ball.
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It was a large number of people there. I was shocked at the number of people at the CryptoFox. Oh, it was huge. Next level.
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The thing that I noticed about that chart... is the trend line. I mean, look at how fast they're building these. And this is where, you know, I don't know what government incentive we need to create or what red tape has to be moved here. But if we can't build, you know, multifamily housing in some states, like this nuclear is going to really need to, we're going to have to
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figure out a way to change that trend line, Friedberg, yeah? I mean, what would it take to build these nuclear power plants at an accelerated rate?
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So we have the tech, we have the physics, we have the will, we have the talent, we have a blocker, and the blocker is regulation. And that regulatory blocker needs to have leadership in government to remove it. Am I summarizing correctly here?
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Look, it's the founder of Uber next to the third investor in Uber and the founder of Cloud Kitchens next to the investor in Cloud Kitchens.
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Chamath or Thomas, what's the downside? to removing the regulation and going for it and building this extra capacity. Can we define any possible downside?
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That's a valid concern. If there is any resistance to this, Thomas, what would be on the top of that list? Just theoretically, how could anybody want to block this? What would be the resistance?
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I think it's a very astute point. Hey, Chamath, I don't know if you've been watching Netflix, but I am a shareholder and I am delighted. I don't know what's going on over there, but they seem to be getting their subs right. And that disgracia of a fight seems to have somehow driven the stock price up. And there's some strategy that's working over there.
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Maybe you could just riff on it for a moment. I have the opposite take. Okay.
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You better light. Oh, this was great. Also at Peter Thiel's house. Yeah. That was great.
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So, cause and correlation aside. It's obviously correlated. This is not causal.
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Netflix is not causing depression.
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What do you think, Thomas? Opioid for the masses or just the golden era of television?
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The former roommate of Obama.
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Yeah, I wholeheartedly agree. And I think you have to schedule these things. You have to make it a permanent part of your life, playing poker on a certain night of the week, doing certain things on the weekend with your kids, having certain rituals. You know, the real damage to our kids is not that the screens are damaging them, it's that it's replacing time.
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I think what you were alluding to there, Thomas, this anxious generation, as Jonathan Haidt, and we had a great interview with him, myself and Freeberg in the All In interview series, That is what's happening. Kids are substituting, whether it's TikTok or Netflix or YouTube time, for time with their friends, time doing physical activities.
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So you really just have to limit the screen time so that those other things and the boredom can emerge. And we will be having a talk in the coming years about dopamine. It is something that these algorithms have gotten really good at doing, which is firing your dopamine.
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Look, you see the barricades in the right there?
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Every time you swipe that TikTok, every time you get to the cliffhanger in a series or, you know, a Mr. Beast video, not singling anybody out, he's just a master of it as well. They're just all really good at giving you that hook, that amazing moment. And musicians are doing this now too with the hooks, and then the hooks go on TikTok.
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The dopamine addiction, when you get burnt out late at night, getting those dopamine hits, the next day you feel depressed. Then you go to a doctor and the doctor said, oh, well, you have depression. So here's your Wellbutrin or here's whatever the, I don't know what the things are of the moment. I'll just tell you what I focus on and what I focus on with my family.
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Sleep hygiene, diet, exercise, meditation. Do these four things and you will reverse these trends. You don't need to, I mean, listen, I don't want to tell you what to do.
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You know what? Try it. Get the, and listen, I'm not talking in my own book here.
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Get the Calm app. It has a bunch of stuff for kids.
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Hey, Thomas, thanks for coming on the show. Great first appearance here as a bestie. We'd love to have you back.
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No, this is not the Broadcom we're all thinking of from the telecom era, is it?
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Yeah.
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Hey guys, breaking news story coming across my feed. I don't know if you can pull this up, Nick, but there's a video trending on the internet. Apparently an executive order has just gone across the president's desk and it was delivered by none other than A gentleman named David Sachs. Now there's a name I haven't heard in a long time.
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Look at this. What? He's using a Sharpie there to sign these executive orders? Oh, Sachs gets to keep the pen. There it is. An executive order. I love how he holds him up. It's so great.
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Oh, your reaction to my I think this is great.
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And he's going to have- You're talking about stable coins specifically?
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The entire country knows that we need to win the AI race. The numbers are the numbers. You put up a chart like that, Thomas, and there's only one way for us to win, and that's to build more nuclear power plants. And so I think he's just got to hammer this through, and let's see who tries to stop it.
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I don't know if AOC or Elizabeth Warren, Pocahontas, Bernie Sanders, who wants to jump in front of this Trump train right now, but I think you'll get slaughtered. If only there was somebody who could comment on this executive order. That's what I need. You know, Chamath, if I had the bat phone, if I could call somebody, Who would you call, Jason?
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I don't know. You know, my saxipoo was always on speed dial. We used to hang in between. We'd have these great battles here on the pod. Then we'd go play chess together. We'd go have some drinks at the battery. But, you know, that was a different era. And, you know, I don't got my boy anymore. He's busy. Oh! Do we got everybody? Thanks for tuning into the all in podcast.
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It looks really good. It was incredible. He was getting stopped every two minutes. It was unbelievable.
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I'm your host, Jason Calacanis. We will see you next time.
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We miss you, buddy. Were you just in the Oval Office?
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First time in the Oval Office. Let me ask you a question. Was that your first time in the Oval?
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Well, tell us, what are the vibes and what's it like to go in to the Oval Office and to have that executive order signed? Tell us what the moment was like and then tell us what's in the executive order.
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And the last one is to build a science council. I don't know if everybody's familiar with that. So maybe you could just describe what that is generally for the audience.
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Well, if you need a recommendation for somebody for the council, I know somebody who is extremely well versed on science. He's got a broad array of science knowledge. Hear, hear. Yeah, I have an idea. Then we could have two besties in and around the White House. Hey, well, you know, thanks for including us in so many aspects of the weekend. And the audience really wants to know.
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What are the chances we get Sachs back on the pod now and again in 2025? And we do appreciate the sacrifice you're making. We're doing it right now. But audience is, you know, not going to just accept this little drop in here. They want to know what's the long term plan for David Sachs and the pod.
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All right. Well, this is our appeal to DJT to let you come on and just chew the fat. And maybe there's some upside to it for him.
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It was an off-the-record dinner. Let's talk all about it. There was an interesting moment, which even Friedberg had to recognize, which was we went around and said, hey, what podcast are you listening to? Which ones are your favorites? We went out in the room and I got to tell you, you know what your podcaster's favorite podcast is?
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All right, everybody, welcome back to the number one business, finance, technology, science podcast in the world. This is The Place. where we call balls and strikes, where we tell the truth, where there is zero censorship. Every week, we tell you about the truth behind the most important stories.
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Oh.
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We miss you so much.
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No, I wish they had a fixed camera on them the whole time. I wanted to see the reaction shots.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Well, kudos to them for coming out and keeping the tradition. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I've had Brendan on This Week in Service a couple times. He's the guy who fought... for Starlink over wasting $5,000, $10,000, $20,000 per home to install broadband. I mean, this guy's a hero. And he did that when he was in office under Biden and all that crazy corruption and grift.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Well, Freeberg wants to know if you could assign his new Tesla. He wants you to sign it with that pen. He wants you to autograph it. So when you get back to the Valley, you can start doing autographs with that all around.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Only the president's allowed to use it. Okay, well, put it somewhere safe, okay? Don't lose the pen. You've got to put it in a glass box or something. And, Sax, there's thousands of commenters who are just begging for you to come back. Do you have a message to your legions of commenters?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Go back to work here and save America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Listen, we wish you great success. We miss you greatly. And we thank you for the service to the country. We wish you all the best as you go handle two of the most important issues for our country, AI, and help advise our president on cryptocurrency as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
And PCAST, yes, of course. And PCAST as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Thank you, Thomas.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
And I'm going to order the $95 Dober Sol.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Your tips included in this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
All right, here's a couple of my picks. This is me with somebody who's going to be in the administration. I'm not big on politics, but- Tulsi Gabbard is so- Tulsi Gabbard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Well, she came up to me and you can always tell who the real fan is. And she came up and she said, I just want to tell you, J. Cal, I am a huge fan of the pod. I love what you do. I love the balance you bring to the program. She really liked new details about the podcast. And so I wanted to get a picture with her. So as a joke, I said to her, do you want to take a selfie?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
We point out who the heroes are and who the villains are, who are the delightful ones and who are the disgracia. With me again on this week's program, the cackling chairman dictator, my guy, Shemoth Paliha. Tia, how you doing? How is your victory lap? How was your victory?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
I said, I'm okay with the selfie. She goes, I was going to ask. I was like, no, I'm preemptively asking. We took it together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
She is. I think she's going to be great. I like her a lot. She's such a star.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
So yeah, that was us just tearing it up after the YouTube party where we hung out with Sundar and Neil from YouTube. They've been very good to us. And then here's one more, I guess.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Oh, there's me and the Presidente of Twitter. And yeah, this is the podcast crew at the free press party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
then you will accomplish what Joe Biden could not, which is to raise taxes on the American people. So look, no bill like this that's passed by a one-vote margin on straight party lines when you only have a three-vote margin in the entire House is going to satisfy everyone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
That's exactly it. He doesn't do the homework, so he runs out of words. He's like, we got the biggest names to come to our summit. The vice president came. He said, yada, yada, yada.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
There was an astronaut.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Yada, yada, yada.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Okay. President did a trip to the Middle East. Yada, yada, yada. Maybe world peace. A whole new framework for how we don't interfere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Yada, yada, yada. World's greatest moderator. Yada, yada, yada.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Let your winners ride.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Well, I don't think that's fair. I mean, look, the president backed up Elon and Doge. First of all, he created Doge. He gave it the US Digital Service. He backed it up in every cabinet meeting and every public pronouncement. There's a limit, though, to what he can do. Congress has the power of the purse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
And we said on a previous episode that at the end of the day, for the Doge cuts to become permanent, Congress has to incorporate that into the budget. And the reality is there are still a number of these like old bull appropriators on the Republican side who just are not wired to make spending cuts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Look, here's the problem is that what you guys want to sell right now is austerity. And the reality is that the politicians in Washington just are not buying austerity right now. I mean, that's what you want is austerity. And the reality is the only way you get true austerity, like a painful set of changes, is when both parties link arms and jump off the cliff together and make those changes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
All right, let's get to work here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
The Democrats right now have no willingness to do that. They're opposed to doing this. This is a straight line party reconciliation vote. I think you're trying to overload this vote with way too much stuff. You're trying to basically say that this vote has to fix America's fiscal problems. Just not going to happen. I mean, look, I agree with you that the fiscal situation needs to get fixed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
This is just not the vote where it's going to happen. You cannot exacerbate it. Well, I don't know. I mean, look, I understand that this doesn't have as much stuff as we want. I mean, like I said, I want to see the doge cuts made permanent, but... The alternative to this bill, let's say the alternative is just do nothing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
That is actually meaningfully worse because you will get a massive tax increase, massive. I think President Trump inherited a Biden economy that was already feeling pretty shaky. I don't know what the argument is for a massive tax increase in an economy that's not doing great. I'd rather see the tax cuts made permanent. I'd rather see the no tax on tips in overtime.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
implemented, important campaign promises. I'd rather see funding for the border wall. I mean, these are all important things that we need to have happen. And I just don't think that this bill is how you're going to solve it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
I don't know. I mean, you're talking about a pretty esoteric issue, Chamath. This is not the same as solving the U.S. budget situation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Why? Well, let's talk about the Medicaid cuts. First of all, I mean, you're being a little bit schizophrenic about this. I mean, you guys are saying that you want to see more cuts, but then you also believe that the Medicaid cuts are a bad idea. So you got to kind of choose.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
All spending cuts across the board. Yeah. Cuts across the board. Spread it out. You got to decide what you're opposed to. Are you opposed to cuts or you want more of them?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Probably the bond market forces it on the politicians, force it on Washington.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
It could be the moment. But I remember the first week of April when Larry Summers came on the pod and said that the markets were melting down. And that was a different moment that he was trying to sell in favor of his policy. So my point is just there's market volatility. And we won't know for a while whether this means anything. It could just be a blip.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
So look, you asked me, what are the conditions for getting austerity? I think that austerity will have to be imposed on Washington from the outside. Washington's not going to find the will internally. We had a wonderful moment here where you have Elon come in with Doge, which the president made possible. No other president would even have done this. Agreed. Big credit for that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Where you get a total outsider to come in and bring a team of young, big, bald geniuses. And you let them go through these departments line by line and start deleting things. Okay. And they made, I think, great progress. I think they found out 160 billion a year of cuts that can be made administratively. Beyond that, they need Congress to approve it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
And I will acknowledge that there are still a number of soft on spending Rhino Republicans. And there's just not a majority for the types of Republicans. austerity and cuts that you guys would like to see. I mean, that's the reality. But I still think that the question with this bill is just how pure you want to be. My point is just, are you going to make the perfect the enemy of the good?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
I don't think you're going to get austerity out of Washington right now. It's just not in the cards. The question is whether this bill is basically better than the status quo. And I think it is because of the tax cuts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Let's say that this is just a blip in the market and it's not some larger once in a century type event. The reality is we don't know exactly what's going to happen. Look, I don't like America's fiscal picture at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
But what if the AI and robotics revolution plays out in the most optimistic way over the next decade and is massively deflationary and we get basically AI-powered robots expanding the economy massively? You need power for that. I get that. And we need to do power generation for sure. But my point is just what if the new technology provides an answer
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
to the fiscal situation that's not currently on the table.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
You're not gonna be able to solve the power generation problem in a reconciliation bill.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
I suggest you look at the Constitution because the power of the purse rests with Congress.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
When it comes to immigration, these other areas, the president has far more unilateral power and he's used that every chance he gets. But when it comes to spending, you have to get Congress on board. This is a bill that passed with a one vote margin. I don't know where you think the opportunity is to squeeze out more concessions from Congress. I don't think it's there. He could speak up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
This bill passed by one vote margin. It was hanging on by a thread. And if it failed, you get basically hundreds of billions of tax increases, which we don't need right now. He's not even trying. In terms of, I think he's trying. In terms of Republican prospects, look, people vote for Republicans to do two things, cut taxes and cut spending. I wish that this bill did two out of two.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
It does one out of two with some of the second one, like with the Medicaid stuff. If we didn't at least cut taxes, there'd be no reason to vote for Republicans. None.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Let's move on. I wish there were 218 members of the House who thought like you did. I hear you. Oh, gosh.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
I'll tell you what. Give him the line item veto and then let's talk.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
This bill cuts $880 billion for Medicaid over a decade, which is something that already is politically tough and controversial. It imposes work requirements for able-bodied adults. This is similar to what Bill Clinton did back in 1996 with welfare reform, basically saying that you can't be a layabout and get welfare. So these are relatively tough things to do politically.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
It's like, do I want to see even more cuts? Yeah, absolutely. But again, when you have a one vote margin, whose vote are you going to pick up by doing more cuts? I guess you get Thomas Massey maybe, but you probably have to go all the way to balance the budget to get his vote. I don't know what it takes to get a Thomas Massey vote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
So I don't know what votes you think you're going to pick up by cutting even more. And we can't afford to lose even one vote. It's literally the art of the deal. Jason, we got to move on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Well, I think we were all calling on previous podcasts for Google to risk disrupting their dominance in search by moving to more of an AI-based model. And I think they've taken an important step in that direction. They've sort of threaded the needle here between... keeping their old UI and product and then also incorporating the new sort of AI UI. So this is a compromise.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
I mean, they're trying to have their cake and eat it too. It ultimately feels a little bit like a transitional move. I doubt that this will be the end point, but given their need to protect their search business while also developing their AI business, this feels like a pretty good compromise, I think. I mean, it certainly shows that they're in the game and they're not going to get
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
caught totally flat-footed and let the whole world disrupt them while they're trying to figure out AI. I mean, they are responding now. And the market seemed to like it. I think they were up like 5% on this news.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Spill it. Let me express a hot take here. But let me express it in the form of a question because I don't want to be too definitive. Ooh, it's hard with the rhetoric. Okay, go. Which is, is Johnny Ive just a media creation? No. I mean, no, seriously. Did Steve Jobs manifest him? Well, I know he did good work at Apple. Okay, don't get me wrong. But the software was done by someone else, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
So he did the beautiful Etiquette. So, you know, the whole... And Scott Forstall. Industrial design. Yes, the hardware looks beautiful with the beveled edge. To paint a glass with a beveled edge. Okay, great. Yeah. He has this beautiful English accent, which everyone associates with intelligence, right? So he could describe anything and it's going to sound amazing. And taste. And taste.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
15% smarter. Right. So I don't know. I mean, maybe he's like parlayed this incredible reputation that he's built in the media into 2% of open AI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
I mean... Sir John. He did put the handle on an iMac, right? I mean, so you got that. Stop.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
I didn't know about the Dieter Braun angle. I mean, listen, it is what it is. I mean, look, everyone at Apple did amazing work. There's no question about it. I don't understand this, yeah. But I'm just saying, like, I don't quite get this, like, design god reputation that's been created a little bit. But I would say that it's certainly... It's making free burn comfortable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
A brilliant idea to parlay that into 2% out of 10.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Yuck. On a serious note, what I would say is maybe what this deal indicates is, I mean, obviously, is that OpenAI is going to do something with hardware. Sure. It could be a new kind of phone that is AI first as opposed to the wall of applications. Or maybe it's like some sort of like pendant thing that like tracks what's going on around you and feeds it into AI so it can give you more context.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
You know, maybe like in the movie Her. Who knows? But it seems like they'll do something with devices and the physical world. Hmm. So that would be the play, I guess.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
I don't think it's going to be 1% or 2% better. I think it's going to be either zero or a doubling of the company's value, something like that, right? Like either he develops an iPhone-like amazing hit product for some new consumer device that really could take the company to another level, or probably... they do something that kind of doesn't work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
So it's more of like a 2% option against a strike of doubling the value of the company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
All right, let's move on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
I took my own plane. So I know that sounds a little bit like a flex, but.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
I was, I was doing my own, my own thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
I probably could have if I wanted to, but I actually wanted to get to the region a little bit early because I hadn't been before and I kind of checked it out. And so I was waiting there when the president arrived.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Yeah.
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Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Well, I call it AI diplomacy. First of all, these countries are, obviously they're very resource rich. They've got a lot of capital to deploy. And they're also very interested in diversifying their economies. They're very interested in high tech, and they want to do things in AI. They've got very significant aspirations there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
And so I was over there just to kind of listen to learn and see what they're interested in doing. And I also got to see some of their tech scenes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Yeah. Oh, you've been there. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
I had the same observation. The elites of all these countries have all been educated in the West, usually in the United States, some in the UK. The leadership tends to be young, visionary, future-oriented, intensely interested in AI, like I was saying, and they want to do big things in AI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
The thing that's been in their way is that in October 2023, the Biden administration basically put a blanket on the whole region acquiring semiconductors, GPUs. And it required that every export of a GPU or a server that contains a GPU had to get a specific license from the Commerce Department. And it put a major damper on their efforts to do things like build data centers in the region.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
or to have their own local AI efforts. So they've been kind of in this holding pattern where the Biden administration decided to kind of alienate them. And, you know, it wasn't just AI. There was other things, too. Remember the fist bump? And the Biden administration was very, I'd say... Hostile? Standoffish? cool to and even hostile towards these states in the region.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
And I think from a geopolitical standpoint, it was just stupid because we're in an intense competition, a high-tech competition, a security competition, economic competition with China. And these states want to be aligned with the US and we're pushing them into China's arms.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
And if we don't give them the ability to buy the American tech stack, it's not like they're going to sit on their hands and do nothing. They're going to be forced to buy the Chinese tech stack.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Right. And China still has some limitations on how many chips it can produce, but they clearly are building their own Chinese tech stack. It's a Huawei plus DeepSeek tech stack. There's actually a story in Malaysia just in the last couple of days where they were talking about building a local data center using the Huawei Ascend GPU plus DeepSeek.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
And then they walk back that story because I think they're afraid of getting in trouble with the US government. But the point is that if we drive these countries away, if we alienate them, they will end up partnering with China instead of the United States. I don't understand how that's in the United States' interest.
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As part of this trip, we rolled out a new framework for an AI acceleration partnership with these countries. And there's a few very important terms that I think it's worth going into. So first of all, the purpose of the framework is to replace the Biden export control to the region. with a framework that gives them the ability to buy GPUs and build data centers.
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But there's a few very important provisions. Number one is there's a matching investment provision. So for every dollar of investment they make in terms of building out data centers in the region, they have to invest a dollar in the United States in building out our AI infrastructure. So it's a huge win for the United States in terms of accelerating our own infrastructure build out.
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So that's point number one. Number two is, even with respect to the data centers they're going to build in the region, at least 80% of the chips have to be owned and operated by American cloud service providers or American hyperscalers. So even with respect to the data centers they're building, the vast majority of the compute is going to be run by American companies.
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And so, I mean, this to me is just a huge win.
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Well, I mean, there's two types of critiques. One is the one that Ro was making. And Ro's a friend, but just, you know, I respond to him on... on X, which is we are building out data centers in the US. We want to do as much as we can. It's the Trump administration's policy towards energy that's making that possible.
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We're making it easier to spin up new power generation, and we're making it easier to permit. Both those things were virtually impossible during the Biden administration. So we are building more here in the US. In addition to that, you've got these countries who are
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resource rich, and they have their own AI dreams and aspirations, and we can either partner with them or drive them into the arms of China. And the deal we've made is to enable their aspirations while getting them to fund more AI infrastructure in the United States. And even the infrastructure they're building over there, first of all, it's going to be on an American tech stack.
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We want it to be NVIDIA and AMD and those types of companies that improves our balance of trade. It also ensures that these data centers across the world are going to be built on American technology. We want American technology to become the standard. Of course. And if you allow those data centers to be built on Huawei plus DeepSeek, that will become the standard.
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So I think this is something that people in Silicon Valley intuitively grasp. But people in Washington don't, which is the way that you win these technology battles is you create the largest ecosystem, right? You want to have the most partners. You want to have the biggest app store. You want to have the APIs everyone uses, the most data. Most power. Exactly.
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So the point is we want to involve the whole world on our tech stack. I think export controls on China, that makes sense. But we don't want to reduce our market share in the rest of the world. We want them getting hooked. on our platforms, making those platforms the standard, and getting lock-in before China can catch up to us.
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Yeah, he's against all export controls. And where I would split the baby here is that I think that most people in Washington believe that the export controls on China make sense because we simply can't allow our most powerful semiconductors to be used by China because of the dual use. Now, where I agree with Jensen is that I think we should not place undue restrictions on the rest of the world.
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using the American tax stack because we will simply concede the market share to China. And so I think he's right with respect to the Middle East. Now, the other concern that you heard a lot is around this, quote, diversion. the idea that somehow the GPUs or somehow the IP, if we allow it to be used in data centers in the Middle East, will somehow find its way to China.
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And yeah, I mean, your expression on your face, Jake, how shows that makes no sense.
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They make
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trillions of dollars selling oil and gas they don't need to smuggle our gpus it doesn't make any sense the other thing is that that people don't understand you know they're called chips but really these things are now the size of mainframes the nvidia data center product nvl 72 is this giant server cabinet it's eight feet tall it weighs 3 600 pounds it's not like diamonds you smuggle in a briefcase right all you have to do is send you're not putting them up
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No, it's not happening. All you have to do is send an inspector to the data center to count the servers and you can see that they're there. Ridiculous. So this idea that somehow they're going to get smuggled, it's like this totally fake concern that's been created. It's almost like a totally fake narrative.
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Then people say, well, they won't physically smuggle the servers, but the IP will somehow be transferred to China. Look, there's nothing in a data center that China hasn't already seen. They have at least one of everything. The issue is that they can't reverse the advanced semiconductors just from the chips, right?
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Because it's about the process technology that it takes to create an advanced semiconductor. There's hundreds, even thousands of steps in that process. Yeah. And you can't figure out the recipe just by seeing the end product.
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And this is the thing is I just don't get the opposition of Washington to this. And I especially don't get how the opponents of this can call themselves China hawks. Because at the end of the day, this is a tech battle between the US and China. And we can have these countries be aligned with us and in our orbit, or we could push them into the arms of the Chinese.
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The choice is, do we want these countries to be the piggy bank for American AI or for Chinese AI? It's like that's the same.
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Well, hold on, let's just be clear about so the five gigawatt cluster, or it's more of a campus that's going to support many American hyperscalers and cloud service providers. And they're going to be one of the tenants. So I think they're saying that they're going to have one gigawatt, there's still four gigawatts to go that they plan on supporting.
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This is why I just don't understand the point of the Biden policy of alienating these countries and making them feel uneasy about their place.
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Let's face it. That's why you're confused. We can have Bernie's. I actually have a pretty good idea at this point of who was controlling the auto pen on AI. There was a group of very powerful staffers in the Biden administration, about half a dozen people who kind of controlled AI policy. And the interesting thing is none of them have ever worked in Silicon Valley. They're all basically lawyers.
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And they don't really have a good understanding of the idea of a platform or a technology ecosystem. or a stack. And I don't think they realized that by alienating these very resource-rich countries that they were creating a huge opportunity for China to come in and serve the region. And this is why I think this, again, what I call AI diplomacy is so important is it boxes out China.
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It's good for America. It's good for our companies. It's good for our trade balance. It makes us the standard and it boxes out China. What's not to like about this? I really don't get it.
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Yeah, I really don't get it. I don't understand what the point of alienating these Gulf states was.
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So I agree with what you just said, J. Cal. And I thought the best part of the president's speech, which the whole thing was excellent, but the best part was when he talked about how the neocons and the interventionists had come into the region and lectured people and come in with this very moralistic point of view and made all these interventions that basically wrecked countries.
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And it wasn't the neocons, the interventionists who have led to so much progress in the Middle East and in the Arab world. It's been the countries themselves whose own leaders have set the path and have had the vision. That was an incredible speech. It was incredible.
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Well, by the way, I was just checking X here, and it looks like there is a –
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Like this?
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Let's talk about science. Well, you raise a good point, J. Cal, that these new devices requires a level of trust that is kind of unprecedented. I mean, you already had to trust Google and iPhone and so on because they do have a huge level of access to your data, but The new, let's call them AI-connected devices, I mean, they are surveillance devices.
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I mean, their whole point is to listen and see everything that you can hear and see and then to give that data to AI to do something with. And man, you better trust that company completely.
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So what do you think we should do about that?
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Well, I agree that you need to build out power, but I think the administration is committed to doing that. Drill, baby, drill.
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Well, let me ask Freeburg. Well, I don't want to get rid of Doge, but let me ask Freeburg a question.
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I know. Given the amazing advances that you see coming with CRISPR biotech, but also AI, robotics, what are the odds that we can grow our way out of this fiscal problem?
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But let's assume that we have enough power.
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That's a pretty important conclusion. Because if that's true, and we can grow our way out of this problem, then that's an alternative to having this austerity approach for which there's no political will.
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So you consider this graph to be more important than the budget deficit graph?
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Well, I just don't. I mean, you're talking about. I'm not sure. You're going to have to provide a lot more information about what exactly is.
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Go talk to Brookfield and Blackstone. They'll tell you.
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I just haven't seen anything.
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You have a $5,000. Yeah, but I didn't pre-announce it.
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Besties are gone. That is my dog taking a notice in your driveway.
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Well, look, I mean, I wish we had 435 members of the House who thought like Freeberg about spending and deficits. We don't. The Democrats all want a lot more spending and a lot more taxes. Remember, if it wasn't for Manchin and Sinema, we would have had that $4.5 trillion build back better.
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And among the Republicans in the House, unfortunately, we have a bunch of Republicans who are pretty soft on spending. I mean, you can call them rhinos if you want. And we only have, what, like a three-vote margin in the House, and the Democrats are not cooperating in any way. So you don't have that many votes to spare. So what I'm saying here is you can't make the perfect enemy the good.
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I think you have to be realistic about how much we can get done here. And I do think that this bill does contain a lot of good things in it. There are a lot of priorities for the administration in here. Do I wish it cut spending more? Yes. I mean, do I wish... that it made all the Doge cuts permanent through rescissions? Yeah, absolutely.
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I think it's outrageous that there are enough House Republicans who didn't want to back up Doge that that wasn't enacted. But there are a lot of good things in the bill, and I should just highlight them for balance here. So the number one thing here is that this bill will permanently extend the 2017 tax cuts. And if we don't pass this bill, let's just assume that we do nothing.
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If we do nothing, you're going to get the largest tax increase in decades. And it won't just affect the rich. This affects the middle class as well. The 2017 tax cuts increased the standard deduction, which is important for the middle class. It raised the child tax credit.
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So again, if you do nothing, you get a huge tax increase as soon as the 2017 tax cuts, which Trump passed back in his first term, when they sunset. So that's number one. In addition, there are promises here that were made during the campaign to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime that have been enacted. And the president promised to do those things and he is accomplishing those things.
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So I think that's important. There's funding for the border wall here, 10,000 new ICE officers, more detention beds, and so on. On energy, it repeals the methane tax and unlocks new oil and gas on federal lands. And there's a bunch of other things as well. So there are a lot of good things in here. Now, to Tomas' point, will this bill be bad for the Republicans' prospects in the midterms?
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I guess what I would say to that is, I don't understand how you expect to do well in midterms if Republicans preside over the largest tax increase in decades. A tax increase that Joe Biden tried to get during his administration. Biden tried to raise taxes and couldn't get the votes for it. But if we don't make those tax cuts permanent, if we allow the sunset to happen...
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Freeberg had this great story. There's a machine there. I've never seen this machine in my life, but he knew the machine. There's a machine.
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Yes, it was like the something chase room, I think. We got to find this.
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And he just kept going and going. He, yeah. Afterwards, we went to his building. By the way, you know that he's the Secretary of Commerce. Howard's office is the War Department office, the old War Department office. So we jumped in his car and we went to his office. It is the most beautiful. This is, again, I didn't think to stop and take photos.
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I should have taken more photos, but his office is outrageously beautiful. Sax, I don't know if you've been over there.
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Yeah, I had a meeting over there.
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Can I give you one quick anecdote, maybe to wrap this segment up? So when we're sitting in, when we're at the private dining room, Steve Witkoff, who's another incredible entrepreneur, was dealing with something sensitive, comes in, tells the president. He's like, okay, great, great job. Then there was three other issues. Sachs had something, then Sergio had something.
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And then on top of all of that, so there's this bang, bang, bang. And then he's also like, guys, listen, for this dinner coming up, I really want to make sure the acoustics is right so everybody has an opportunity. It's like the level of detail from the most important thing all the way down to literally the acoustics in the dining room, he is on top of all of it. And I was just like...
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And that was, again, just in my small little brief observation. And I was like, this is crazy, to your point. The energy and the indefatigability and the desire to get every little thing right, it's pretty rare. I kind of feel like America's in good hands, to be honest.
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Totally agree. I think Freiburg is totally right. If we can create a pattern where people with high executive, let's just say that because that's less of a loaded word than businessman or successful, whatever. People with high executive function that have proven it should at some point in their career step into government and replace money for purpose.
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If that is a trend that this administration creates, I think America is incredible hands.
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There'll be a moment, guys, where the Democrats win, right? There'll be a moment when the Republicans return to power. There'll be a moment when all the ideologies flip. But if in all of that, you can find people who are willing to pause their private lives, have demonstrated executive function and can make the trade, we're going to just kick ass.
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It's great. David, thank you. I really, honestly, thank you. Like you are awesome. You're awesome. Thank you for giving us a window into that.
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She's incredible.
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What did we miss that you would have asked?
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What does it mean to be independent, but also have another label that says you refuse to consider somebody? I don't understand why.
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I was a Democrat.
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Did you guys talk about tariffs? Let me tell you. Yeah, we did talk about tariffs. Listen, the thing you need to know about Howard Lutnick is he is an incredibly resilient and resourceful businessman. This guy has built himself up literally from nothing. Good human. I'm a little biased, but he's a great guy. And you're going to hear some really incredible stories.
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But again, another one who traded... money for purpose.
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This is in every 7-Eleven, every movie theater, every McDonald's.
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Blocked in the UK. Blocked in the UK.
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I think this is the Trump premium. I mean, the problem when that deal was being looked at back then was there was still a chance that there could be a Democrat administration. And it was very clear that they were anti-M&A. and anti-tech, quite honestly. And when Trump won, I think it basically said, okay, we can now look at these deals.
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There's another important part of this, though, and this was part of our interview with Howard Luttnick. I'd love to just play this quick clip.
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But what's incredible is you're convincing these companies to basically do right for America and build a software for you. You think that's going to be a movement throughout the government? Here's the idea. I say, build it for me for free.
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Yeah.
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Right.
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What he's really saying is there are all kinds of companies that are doing all kinds of work who Google famously has this 20% time. Could you imagine if some of this 20% time was allocated to rebuilding the core infrastructure of America and giving back to the country that gives you the ability to have a multi-trillion dollar company? That's but one example.
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So when you connect the dots, the way that I interpret it is that I think companies will be much more aggressive on M&A. Jason, it's what you've been asking for. I think you're going to get it. And I think the reason why you're going to get it is you're going to have a very open-minded administration that will let the M&A happen.
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But also, there are ways where you can build goodwill by doing the kinds of things that Howard is talking about. I mean, could you imagine if somebody volunteered, let's say Palantir, and said, hey, we can build the following software for the IRS so that we can just completely automate tax returns? And it's okay for Palantir. It's still a $200 billion company.
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They could allocate a small amount of time and get that done if Oracle stepped up and said something. And all of that goodwill will then allow America to just grow faster. And then under that economic umbrella, A little consolidation is not necessarily a bad thing. So I'm really interested in how all of these pieces move together. That's the one thing I get.
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But I'd like to say something else very narrowly about Wiz, which is Wiz does not do something that's necessarily unique, meaning there are other products in market. But they have done one thing better than everybody else. And I think it's really worth rewarding, which is they have incredible taste. So if you use it, and all my engineers,
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at 80, 90 live inside of this regime, when I asked them, hey, we need to implement something, they all picked Wiz. And if you ask them why, and if you ask our sysadmin, why did we implement it? Not only is it good, but it is the most beautiful, it is the most intuitive, it's the most well-integrated.
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And it's just an incredible lesson where even when other people do this other thing, you can build $32 billion of value by just doing that thing in a more coherent way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Give it to me. It was probably the most intense three days that we had. Nat and I were there to see the president, but obviously we were there to see Sachs as well. But there was a bunch of other things that happened. Myself, Freeberg, New Money Sonny was there. Our bestie, Elon Musk, obviously we dropped in with him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And having taste matters.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I have a real problem with this clip, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
No, I'm not going to say anything personal except to say that I think that it is incredibly lowbrow. At the end of the day, he represents the American people. He needs to be firmly on Team America. I don't think he understands this because he's never actually had a real job, but the auto industry is a vibrant part of how many, many, many Americans earn their living.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Tesla employs 125,000 plus employees. There is no reason a politician should be wishing any American company to fail, period. I just think that should be the price of entry. And so to lack the basic decorum and understanding, and then to whip people up into wanting any American company to fail. There are many American companies I like or dislike. Whatever. It's not the point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
So to recap, on Sunday we got in, it was just like raining cats and dogs, nothing to say there. Then on Monday, what happened was we basically had some meetings in the morning and then David said, guys, let me just walk you around and just show you where I work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
There are some that I'll buy the stock of. There are some that I would not. That's not the point. You cannot openly and actively be cheering, as a politician at least, for these things to fail. That, I think, is just incredibly lowbrow. I think it's the bottoming out of the Democratic Party.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Did you see the crazy clip that did the racial demographic split on some key issues like things like DEI?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
It's a really good framing. I really like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I was blown away by this machine. All the Coca-Colas, all of the Gatorades.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
So then we started to walk through the West Wing. We dropped by Look at Sax's office for a second here, Sax. I love what you've done with the place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I think the most iconic part of the West Wing is the portico, where you see those very famous shots of all these very important people. In this case, it's just the four of us. But you can see, Nick, there's the shot of all of us
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I think it's a very tricky... You said it earlier, actually. It's a Trojan horse into the other clouds. The reason Wiz exists, and Jason mentioned this up front, is because of the value that it creates in a multi-cloud, multi-tenant environment across Azure and GCP and AWS. And when the deal was done, one of the things that Wiz said is, hey, don't worry, we're not going to prefer GCP.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And it was interesting because I thought, wait, people actually thought that they would just prefer GCP. No, it's the exact opposite of why Google would want this. Because now what you have are your tentacles. Like think of any other service that any cloud provider provides where most of your revenue is coming from the other clouds. Can you name one? Well, it didn't exist until now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And so I think the strategic rationale is quite clever, which is you start to gain customer traction and workloads in all of these other environments. And I suspect that TK is smart enough to try to pull these workloads back into GCP.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Of course.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
All three of you would do that if you're running Google Cloud. Of course, of course. And Thomas Kurian is smart enough and- And David, by the way, the other thing that I would say is I think this is where bankers get this totally wrong as the observer watching a deal like this is it's never about the rate of change when you're trying to do a deal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
It's always about the rate of change of the rate of change. And the most incredible thing that Wiz had going for itself was that they were basically doubling in months. So the time to double at that scale, you can do any kind of fantastical model with that kind of raw input.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Because when that boundary condition is true and you're trying to deescalate or scale down or weigh down a model, you're still gonna get crazy gargantuan numbers that when you discount them back, gets them to this price. So, I mean, congrats to these guys. You know, I would love to find out how does Wiz, because this is, I mean, I'm sure you guys have this question too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
How do you build a sales infrastructure that can scale that productively that quickly? That's an incredible thing. How do you do that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
It's got to be self-serve. People just sign up and use it. It's got to be some percentage of it. I'll tell you our experiences. We had a guy that had to come in and sell it into us, and we had a little bit of a bake-off. I don't know. Maybe we were unique, and there's a simpler, lower-scale product that's just more pago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
M&A wise. Absolutely. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
one of the most iconic things we were allowed to do was see the press room. By the way, the people that work, and we'll get to it in a second because we met some incredible people that work in the White House, but some of the folks that don't necessarily get a lot of flowers, like folks that work in like the upper press room and the lower press room, some of the kindest people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And what they did was they're like, oh guys, why don't you come and see where they do the presidential briefings? And the one thing about the White House is everything is just like in a nook and cranny away. So this is where, obviously you see the presidential seal isn't there because the president is not there, but we were able to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Let's add some color from Scott Besson. One of the biggest mistakes that I think Janet Yellen affected was this continued issuance of money on the short end of the curve to finance these deficits. which gives you, you inherit an incredibly difficult challenge, I think, over the next nine months. I think there's like nine or 10 trillion that has to get refinanced. Do you want to talk about that and
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Yeah. So he's saying a couple things. He has inherited a problem that he hasn't quite yet changed. What is that problem? That problem is that when rates are low, you want to borrow for as long as possible, right? You don't want to borrow for the shortest amount of time. And now that rates are high, you're in this difficult position where you have to refinance all of it at a much higher rate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
That's effectively the net of it. What I took away, and you can see more and understand more when you watch this whole interview with Freeberg and I, but I think that there has been a fundamental disconnect and break from the Fed and the rest of Treasury and the government. And I think that Scott was very clear, like he views that as an independent organization and it should continue that way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
How much? Yeah, $399.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
But it was very clear to me that they are singing from their own hymn book. And it just doesn't seem to me that Powell really understands the gravity of this situation. And I don't think that he's really willing to play ball. So he's probably on the margins. Again, this is my total interpretation of this. would rather wait longer than necessary because I think it's almost like a political gambit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And I think that that's very dangerous. That's again, just my own interpretation. I just do not think that Powell, A, has the data to make a very clear decision and B, will act unless it's totally necessary. So I think there's an overcorrection here that's happening, which I think is dangerous.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And I think it's going to slow down the pace of cuts, which I think will then create a lot of other pressure in the economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
The Fed is not part of the administration. Of course not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And the quote today in the Wall Street Journal, Nick, you can look for it, is Powell's statement basically blamed rising inflation in the short-term period on exogenous factors. He said, our job was getting the job done. And now there's exogenous inflation. And I think what he's pointing to are these potential tariffs or something. So I think it's less that they're not coordinated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I think that they are on very different pages. And I don't think the Fed wants to play ball. Sorry, Sian. And then I have a story at the end.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Well, I kind of disagree with you in one way. I just think the Fed has totally lost the script and I don't think they're doing what they're supposed to be doing. What should they be doing? What they should be doing is actually observing the fact that there's some very complicated money flows. The front end of the curve makes no sense. The back end of the curve hasn't gone down long enough.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
They sat around and they allowed Treasury to basically pump trillions of short-term paper So they were complicit in what Yellen did. And it's inconceivable that they didn't understand that strategy. And so it's inconceivable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
So what do you do when you have a, is recalcitrant the right word? You know, like let's just say you just have an organization that refuses to play ball. Again, there was a really interesting anecdote where Besant talked, this is in the interview, about how he really wants to deregulate and loosen up bank lending standards, particularly at the community level.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And I think that this is one very interesting thing that is a workaround to the Fed. Why? Because if you think about where money gets transacted on a 10 to 20 to 30 year duration, those are the big boys. They're making big capital plays, right guys? But where do you play for the two month to two year kind of thing? It's smaller stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
It's the stuff that's required to get small businesses off the ground. It's the community lending standards that actually allow communities to thrive. And so I think Scott realizes that if the Fed's not going to really play ball, how do you loosen credit? How do you make sure that that money's available, Jason, to make sure that you can fight off a recession?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
You have to give it to these smaller banks. And he was pretty clear about that. So I think that it's almost as if the Fed is just going to get relegated to this random organization. Like, yeah, they'll control reverse repo, but they just won't have any credibility. And maybe that's not a bad thing, actually, in the end.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
It's a great question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Eight days and it ended up eight months or something like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
So let me show you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Look, there's a couple of startup alternatives. I'll put alternatives in quotes because they're not really GA. They're not generally available. They're not really launching. They're still in this early experimentation phase. One is Blue Origin and the second is Relativity Space. The problem with Both of those two approaches.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
$3.99. It depends.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
You made some really incredible people. Nick, you can find a picture of myself and Freeberg and Sonny and Sachs. We're with Taylor Budowich. Who's that? David, he's a deputy chief of staff, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Well, the the feature of both of those two approaches is theoretically that there's a different economic model there. But the reality is that SpaceX is the only company that has consistently been able to take these costs and just crunch them down to like more than one launch a day. This year, I think like it's just an incredible scale and pace. So no, there is no economic alternative.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
They are the absolute cheapest in the market. I'll tell you a very quick story. I was also an investor in Relativity. I think I owned about 10% of the company. I just got recapped out of that business because they needed a lot more money than folks were willing to give it. Then Eric Schmidt just stepped up and offered I think $3 billion to the business. And I kind of said, no, I'm done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I'm out of here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I think I took like a $380 million loss. It was not a good week two weeks ago. But anyways, that's not the point. The point is SpaceX is the best. There is nobody even close. The next closest alternative is years and years away. Would we benefit from more capacity? Sure. But the reality is they are the only solution. And they're safe. And they're reliable. And what Sayan said is so true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
When the hell does America just abandon people? Why do you do that? Especially in space, of all places. Of all places. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Look, you have WNBA players that get put in Russian jail. We're willing to swap them for arms dealers in the last administration. That's pretty good insight. Fine. So we didn't abandon her, but then we let these two people flounder. I just think it's really inexcusable. That makes no sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
They were like, that's their way of saying, come get me. Please come get me. They're like, I'm literally withering away in space. Please come get me. They put their thumbs up. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Flash the thing from NBC, Nick. We know who was responsible for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I'm just saying, look at the data.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
What is going on here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Just to build on what you were saying, it's math that was told was racist. In one of the best private schools here in Silicon Valley, they taught the girls. These are girls in the best all-girls private school in Silicon Valley. That reading was racist. Could you imagine? There was a spreadsheet that these kids had to memorize every day that had every other kid's pronoun.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And if you didn't get it right, you'd get in trouble.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
What does that do? What does that do to your self-worth? Yeah, your desire to actually do anything in society.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
How much is milk? $8.99 to $11.99, depending on what you buy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
100%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I'm not sure. It's a great question about a week. A week seems like a very... Wow. Wow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I'd bring like a- What should Sean make us when we go? 2020 Lafond. I'd bring like a white burgundy. Got it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
You know, people don't realize that white Burgundy tastes great with me. I know that people think you should always drink a very heavy red, but it's not true. I just want everybody to know, the more you know. The more you know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
We saw Elon, obviously. Nick, you can just show the picture of all of us with Elon. And the incredible thing is here you have the most incredible entrepreneur of our lifetime, dealing with so many complicated issues. And I'll tell you, Elon works in one of the smallest offices I've ever seen. All he has is a desk with an enormous screen and his phone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And you can see that there is nothing that matters except the task at hand. And that's really inspiring. Like it just puts everybody on the same level. You feel this energy that all of these guys are doing incredible work on behalf of the country to a one where there's no ego about some of these things, meaning what is the office size? What is this? What is that? They're just here to grind.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
My sweater is $4,000.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
The intensity, I'm going to describe to you a 45-minute or so experience in the Oval. So the next day, Myself and Nat and Sax go to see POTUS in the Oval. And there's this incredible meeting room and you're kind of, you wait there, right? The waiting room. It's quite large. It's very beautiful, you know, beautiful sofas, etc. And then they say, oh, the president's ready to see you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And you get escorted into the Oval. And the one thing that struck me about the Oval is it's also much smaller than what you would think. Like it's a very good size and it's a very natural size, but it's beautiful and it's inspiring. And our experience was Nat was in the front, I'm in the middle, and then David's beside me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
And as we were walking through, you could hear that there was this like very important conversation happening between and somebody else who I won't say about something that I won't say, but it was really important. And we walk through the oval and we walk through the back and we go into his private dining room. And that has all this incredible memorabilia sticking around.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Nick, maybe you can show the picture of me, Nat, and the president. So we had this conversation. And in the middle of the conversation, we had a chance to watch some Fox News together because the Dragon Capsule was landing. And I texted Elon. I said, hey, we're in the Oval. Do you want to come drop in? He texts back, Kent, Dragon Capsule landing. I'm like, yeah, I know. We're watching it right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
So Nat, myself, POTUS, Sachs, we're watching this thing kind of unfold. Anyways, then we have our meeting, it ends. And we walk out into sort of like this area where Taylor's office is, like where that picture was. And we continue to just randomly sit there watching. And this is what you mean, Freeberg. Marco Rubio comes by. And so now we're just standing around. There's Marco Rubio.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
We were talking about the landing. And then out of the left-hand side, Sheikh Tanoun comes in because he's there to say hi to the president. Then he comes in, obviously says hi to Marco Rubio, says hi to me. We talk for a few minutes. He leaves. So the intensity of the people, just within two steps of each other, you saw the CIA director walk in and out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
It's just an incredibly mesmerizing place where irrespective, I think, of your political ideology, the minute that you're there, I think it's hard to not be anything but Team America. I think it's impossible, actually. And it's really inspiring. And by the way, coming home, I feel like I'm crashing, meaning there's such a level of adrenaline and dopamine. And we are like these observers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
So I can only imagine, Sax, what it feels like for you when you're not in that environment. It's a really intoxicating, mesmerizing place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
There's a machine that's right by the Navy mess where we had lunch in the Situation Room, which dispenses literally—I've never seen this before—
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
I sent Nick a photo of the burger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
They're sending you a message. By the way, what's incredible about the narrowness and the smallness, there's just a door that does not look all that assuming. It's very unassuming. And there's just a small sign that says, Situation Room.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Yeah, we saw it. I mean, so this is the problem, Cyan. I feel like I want to redo that moment. I mean, David gets to do it every day, but I want to redo it 50 times because we didn't necessarily stop there. He has to open and close the curtains because they want to keep the sun off the Declaration of Independence. Probably a good idea. I didn't think to like, oh, sir, can we just stop?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
It's just such a whirlwind that I want to redo.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Way to dial up the misogyny. Good for you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
So first of all, big shout out to Luca Rubinacci, my tailor. I did double breasted on Monday and Wednesday.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
How is it that Alibaba shows up with something incredible, DeepSeek shows up with something better? At every turn and at every step of AI, they are at the same rate or one step ahead. And I suspect it's because that these chips are being used in very sophisticated ways behind the scenes. And I think that's the issue that we need to address.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
I don't know if you saw, but I believe there was a report that there was a couple Singaporeans that were arrested for actually trying to bring the chips into China. I don't think it's necessarily that. I think what happens is you have some entity that springs up Acme Corporation. AcmeCorp.com.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
They show up in Bhutan or Cambodia or Vietnam or Singapore, and they provide a PO, a purchase order to NVIDIA, $300, $500, $800 million. What do you think NVIDIA is going to do? They're going to think, well, this is a legitimate Singaporean entity. I'm going to sell them the chips, whatever they want. It checks all the boxes, and they look away.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
And what we need to now figure out is what happens once those chips get delivered. It is the only explanation for this. You don't have this requirement for this number of GPUs for those end markets. There is only one end market.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Let's have a thought starter for a second, guys. Do you guys think that if 47% of all of the AI capability and horsepower is being shipped to three Asian countries, where do you think the apps that require that amount of horsepower live? Is there a cursor of Bhutan that we did not know? Is there a great shopping app in Cambodia that's come out of nowhere that's AI-powered?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
I think the answer is no. So we already know what the answer is. The question is, this is a case where you have plausible deniability, right? I sell something to a Singaporean registered company, plausible deniability. What am I supposed to do? You can't expect me to audit it. I think that's what Nvidia's answer will be to this question. But what is the real expectation?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Let's flip it on its head. Last week, China, in retaliation for tariffs, constrained the supply of rare earths outside of China, right? Leaving China. You had certain factory lines that just had to stop on a dime. right? So they're clearly in a position to understand their supply chain, who benefits or who doesn't benefit and can be hurt by constraining supply, and they're able to affect that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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At a minimum, the United States should have a mechanism to understand it. Whether they do it or not should be up to powers that be that are bigger than the four of us or the five of us, but that's my point, which is that it is implausible that if you did one or two layers of work, you would not find that most of this traffic is being used by Chinese organizations.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
That may be okay, and that's a decision that the United States government should make, but it's something that should be disclosed to them somehow. And I think if you look at the composition of revenue, for NVIDIA, it is inconceivable that there's a bunch of Asian AI apps that are just crushing it so hard. No, no.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Yeah, it's $1.99 extra if you want the extra jalapenos, Timmy.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Okay, here we go.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Well, it's more than the IRS is looking into it. They're thinking of revoking their tax exempt status. Yeah. How about I tee this up slightly differently? Tim, you brought up something that I think is really important, which is what is the American dream for all these people that are cascading between half jobs and half measures? That's right. That's a really important question.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
And right now, if you look at the top of the educational hierarchy, Harvard, what have we seen over the last few years? They are at the absolute bottom of the rankings with respect to free speech. They have lost all of these cases all the way up to the Supreme Court about how they do admissions. Harvard doesn't just have a front door.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
It's got a bunch of side doors, got a bunch of back doors, and they discriminate. And what is the opposite of discrimination? It's meritocracy. And I think with 20 plus years of discrimination, what Harvard did was made it fashionable for other schools to discriminate.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
If you compound that for 20 years, it doesn't just touch the universities, it starts to touch the high schools and the middle schools. Where we live, at the beginning of COVID, we had some morons at the Board of Education decide to take away AP Calculus and AP Math because it made people feel bad. It's absolutely ridiculous. Then we pound these kids with ADHD pills,
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
And what happens is what you described, Tim. So what is the point of fixing Harvard? It's really important because the opposite of what they do, what they do is discriminate. is a meritocracy. And we need to make that fashionable again. And the biggest reason goes back to, again, I'll just go back to the chip conversation. The Chinese are so well-organized.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
If you look at the Chinese and the Indians together, those are 2.5 billion people swimming in a meritocratic soup from the day they're born. That's the only way they climb out. And it's eat or be eaten. And then when they graduate from an education system that is purely meritocratic, you know what they do? They enter a workforce that's also meritocratic.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
So it's compounded into their psyche that you just have to perform. Whereas what we do is we do all of these fake things that make people feel really bad about themselves. They look at other people that think that shouldn't deserve to be in places, get places. And so we have to turn that tide. And so whatever it takes, the most severe and extreme measures must be undertaken to fix this.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
That's my point of view.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Can you please pass the ball? Just pass the ball. Let's pass the ball and get out of the way.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Did you call the DNC to clean up the roadkill, Jason?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
You have both options on the table. It would have been very funny if we actually were just, if as soon as Tim said that, we had Steve Davis pop on.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
You mean there's no market feedback that keeps you in check?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Nick, can you please throw up the chart that I sent you, which is the amount of research between China and America? Okay, first look at this. So again, you make these plans and you're like, where are we going to put the money? Okay. China says, guys, we are going to learn how to catch up to America in terms of spending on science. This is gross domestic expenditures on science.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
And what you see is China from basically nothing in 2001 is now neck and neck with the United States, spending half a trillion dollars a year on core fundamental science research. So what happens as a byproduct of that? Okay, so you spend more on the way in. So China is listening to the market feedback. Freiburg, let's go and explore this idea that there is no market feedback in America.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
What are the long run implications? And you see it on this chart, which is, this is a simple chart that says, what percentage of all of the foundational research comes from the United States versus comes from China. And what's crazy about this chart is right around 2019, China passed the United States. This chart, by the way, only measures research that is published in English, okay?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
So if you added in the research that China actually publishes in Chinese, they would have run away with this a decade earlier. So then you think about, okay, well, what is the implication of this? Well, the implication is obvious. These guys are inventing things. We're playing catch up. Meanwhile, we're bumbling around talking about pronouns. We can't get our act together.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
This is why we need to be decisive. What is important here?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Can I tell you a crazy story? This is a story I've never told, but a friend of mine is an incredibly well-respected banker on Wall Street, very senior guy, works at one of the big mainline banks. And a few years ago, this is about 18 months ago, two years ago, he had always wanted to work in government. And they tried to get him to join the Federal Reserve.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
And it was for a role that was very specific and narrow. It was to manage a very specific part of the interest rate mortgage market. It's a really important role. It's a little bit in the weeds, but it was like his dream job. You know, he did his PhD thesis on it the whole nine years, whatever kind of thing.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
So he goes through these interviews and he sits with Jerome Powell, goes through that interview, sits with, I think, Lael Brainard, you know, everybody. And it was time for the final interview. And right before, the person that was his kind of like shepherd says to him, you really need to play up your Indian-ness. Because what we really want is somebody who can help us tell a diverse story.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
He goes, well, my diversity is that I know this market better than literally anyone else in the world. Nobody knows this. I know it. I've studied it since my PhD. And he was so offended. He was like, you know what? I'm not going to go through with this. And we lost him. We meaning the American taxpayer who supports all this.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
If you think of that example in all of the different places where we have not been hiring the right people, you get this slowdown in innovation, you get a slowdown in research, you get a slowdown in well-functioning organizations and institutions, and it's like a slow malaise. So how do you stop the rot? You have to stop it at the top, and you have to do something that is meaningful.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
And if it requires us to at least threaten Harvard, by the way, look, let's be honest, it's called Harvard Corporation for a reason, right? It's run like a corporation. It is an asset manager that may happen to have some educational things that they do on the side, which increasingly are not what we need it to do. And more importantly, it doesn't set the vanguard for how everybody wants to copy.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
And everybody used to want to copy Harvard. And now what they're copying are not the things that help us. So we have to find a way of waking them up and saying, guys, you have a responsibility for America. And maybe this is what it takes, and I hope they take the medicine and listen.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
I've asked him. He was told to play up his Indian-ness, and he was like, well, what does that mean, my Indian-ness? And they were like, well, you know, talk about your love of Indian dance and Indian food. And he was like, are you kidding me? Like, is this a serious conversation?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
It's the opposite of inclusion. It's the opposite of inclusion. It's the opposite of inclusion. What has happened?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Can I give a quick shout out, which is 10 months ago, Tim Dillon won on the Tucker Carlson show. I think the title is called Disney Boomers and the Creepy Corporations That Pretend to Love You. Really one of the best pieces of content I watched all of last year. Nick, you should put the link in the show notes. Thank you. It's incredible. Thank you.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
The whole thing, end-to-end, two hours well spent, I would encourage everybody to watch it. It's timeless content, actually. Real good cultural observation at the moment. It's really good.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
I didn't know if that was- No, let's say that you are in charge of education in America.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
What would you do?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
You know, I went to... and did it there. And he has a way of just kind of like slipping you into this state of comfort. All of a sudden, I just started talking about all the money I've lost. He's great. He's great at it.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Does the DNC have a roadkill cleanup crew?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
He's great at it.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
That's so racist.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
That was the ethnic minority that was fighting for a homeland. I was part of the ethnic majority. You were the one trying to avoid the suicide mess. No, my dad was the one that spoke out against the war. That's why we had to skedaddle and claim refugee status.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Duterte.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Jason, you know how you would know this for sure? What? Because my intuition tells me that what Tim just said is totally right, is the number of Ukraine flags that were taken off of profile photos- Absolutely. I don't want the pronouns.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
It all comes down to this. Final Jeopardy in a very close game. Film festivals is the category. Here's the clue, players. Called the premier movie industry event for the Balkans, this festival began 30 years ago while the city was under siege. We'll begin on the end with Dave Friedberg, who had $8,700. And it looks like he changed his answer at the last minute. What happened here?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
He wrote down something and crossed it out and wrote Sarajevo Film Festival. We can read Sarajevo, and that's the important part, right? We're going to give you credit. You wagered. 8,697, and now you have 17,397. You're ahead of Mina Kimes at the moment with 17,000. What did she put down? I did my math wrong. Oh, my God. She wrote down can, and she wagered 1,000. That drops her down to 16,000.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
$9,999. And from third place, Dave Freedberg comes back. What did he do? He didn't get your bet. Can I ask you a question?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
10 times 30 million? 10 times 40 million? 30, I'm out. 30, I'm out, baby. Who's the first to play the ripcord? Actually, Tim's asking, do the ratings go up or down for Celebrity Jeopardy?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
I'm here for your segment. Go ahead, Dave.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Have you learned anything about the connection of creatine to mitochondrial health?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
It's becoming like a trend. Yeah, I think it's... Oh, yeah, no, 5 grams. Yeah, something like that.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
I don't think it's a joke. Is it... But does it... Is there any science that backs that up or not really for mitochondria?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
i mean that's microphone on that's exceptionally mean and i think that that's just a joke oh now all of a sudden you're defending by the way did you guys see did you guys see george clooney uh what do you guys think of his new haircut his hair color i noticed he was he's dying his hair he said he was gray and now he looks it must be a for an acting job because his his hair i hadn't seen this this is crazy he looks it looks like his face is melting
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Well, he just did an interview explaining his whole op-ed on Biden, but it's in that clip where he looks very different. What did he say on Biden? I thought he looked really, he said he felt compelled to act and that it was a civic duty, although the dates don't match up, but nobody ever questioned him about that. But he looks really good. He did not get a call from Obama? Salt and pepper hair.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
For him, yeah. Clooney's a very handsome guy, but in that interview, I don't think he looked perfect. You guys watched The White Lotus, by the way? Did you guys watch The White Lotus? What did we think? Okay, so I don't know what it was, but I had heard from a bunch of you guys in the group chat that the show was not good. So Nat and I ignored it. Then we started it. We watched one episode.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Phenomenal. Oh, you loved it. Well, we're one episode in, but it was great. And we were like, this is really good. And then, you know,
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
I can tell that that guy has one of the most interesting roles in that series. I'm really looking forward to him. Who else was really cool?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Patrick Schwarzenegger is your friend?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Yes, all in false is Schultz and his crew. That'd be hilarious. Eight people would watch. No, you're incorrect. No, no, no. People would love it.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
If we're done sniffing our own butts, let's go. We've got to go. Okay. Love you guys. I miss you.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
And David Sucks.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Bye-bye.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Got it.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
I think that the technology that they need is extremely non-trivial. And I do think that it actually slows them down quite a bit if they don't have access to it. Can I just take a step back and up-level this? I think it was in 2017, the State Council of China published this plan and they were incredibly transparent and honest.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
They said, this plan is for China to become a global leader in AI by 2030, okay? And it said, so this is in 2017. And they said, by 2020, we need to have made iconic advances. By 2025, we should be a major engine of the industry. And by 2030, they should occupy the commanding heights, they said, in AI tech. Okay. So why is that important?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Pronouns everywhere on the highway, Jason. Pronouns are everywhere. People just trying to clean up the pronouns. The shovels weren't big enough for all the pronouns.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
To be honest with you, I think the real problem that we have is that NVIDIA is not doing what is in the best interest of the United States. David mentioned this. When the US banned the sale of the top-end GPUs, the A100 and the H100, they quickly introduced the A800 and H800. What does that mean? Well, all it was was just a chip that was basically the same.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
It slightly reduced the data transfer speed so that it went under the export control threshold but it was still really usable. Then late last year, they introduced this thing called this H-20 that was explicitly designed for China and to be compliant with US rules at the time, which again, gives these guys substantial performance. Okay, so what do you have?
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
You have a 2017 plan that they've been executing against, which is to say, we want to dominate this base. And you have an American company that has been working around the guidelines at every turn to try to land silicon into the hands of China. So then you would say, well, maybe there's not that much going into China.
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Nick, can you just throw up the chart that I sent you about NVIDIA's revenue composition? So let's just call a spade a spade, guys. I think we can all do the math. About 47% of all of NVIDIA's revenue goes to China and Chinese-related companies. countries. And I think when you peel back this onion, I think what you will find is a whole raft of companies
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Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
that were stood up to buy these Nvidia GPUs to essentially act as a way station for China. And I think that is the big problem because it doesn't mean that it was just these chips that David and his colleagues put on an export control list. It was every kind of chip. And now it explains every single time we have an advance in the United States,
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I think the biggest moment was the speech that Trump gave. It underscored, I think, a really important narrative shift for me. This was a powerful embrace of Saudi, Qatar, of their choices, their way of life, their way of being, basically showing, I would say, respect, to those peoples without judgment, which I think is quite different from leadership of the past.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I'll just highlight the mainstream media narrative is, oh my gosh, Trump goes to Russia, Trump goes to China, he goes to North Korea, he goes to Saudi, he embraces dictators. So the narrative has been that these individuals in leadership positions in these countries are dictators, and Trump embraces dictators. He loves Xi, he loves Putin, he loves Kim Jong-un, he loves MBS. That's a bad thing.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Because the liberal view, and I would say largely the American view in the past, has been that there's right and there's wrong. There's our way of governing, and then there's the other way of governing. And the other way of governing is always wrong. That our form of American democracy is the only model that is right, and all the others have to be wrong.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And fundamentally, that's a colonial mindset, is what he's highlighting in this speech. He's saying that the point of view that all others are wrong means that they should come around to our point of view, our model of democracy, our model of governing. And in the speech, he basically underscored that that's not really the case anymore.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
We are no longer going to be colonizers where we are going to enforce our view of government on the rest of the world and say this is the only good path. But there are other paths and we can respect them. We can work together so long as we aren't harming one another, so long as terrorism goes away, which he underscored in his speech. has gone away.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And by the way, I'm not trying to highlight or kind of prop Trump up for the speech itself. But I do think that this underscores a shift in the political viewpoint that has now come to power in America that, you know, we are no longer going to have this kind of moral or socio political framework that says, it's our way or the highway, but we are now going to go to folks like Xi
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
like North Korea, like China, and say, we can respect your way of living, we can respect your way of governing, and we can have partnership and continue to build a world together without saying that if you don't follow our path, we're never going to be true partners.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
So for me, the biggest thing that came out of this whole visit was that shift in narrative that I think really is different than what we've seen in the past. And it counters a lot of how the mainstream media has kind of, you know, framed his quote, embrace of, you know, differing ways of governance.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
By the way, just to put a number on that, Qatar Sovereign Wealth Fund, the QIA, the investment authority, it's about a half trillion dollars of capital, about 50 billion of which is invested in U.S. funds. And many of the folks in and around the circles that are associated with the White House obviously have QIA as an LP or have had funds that they're affiliated with that have QIA as an LP.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I don't know where the tariff deals are going to end up. So we don't know yet.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Yeah. And so I don't know. I don't know. Like I said, I think one of the biggest things that needs to happen that is being discussed in these trade deals is regulatory parity. such that US companies can participate evenly in foreign markets.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I kind of highlighted a few examples of why it's challenging for US companies to set up and do business in the local jurisdictions for a lot of our trade partners across multiple industries. I think that's being heavily negotiated. So that doesn't make the headlines. That's not kind of the top of the news. Everyone talks about the tariff number, the tariff number, the tariff number.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
But at the end of the day, the access to foreign markets for US companies, you can even think about, I mean, a good example for us, is a lot of the fines that happen to U.S. tech companies in the EU. And there are just billions and billions of dollars of fines being paid out of our companies. That's another form of taxation. The fact that China won't allow U.S.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
tech companies to operate, but we allow Chinese tech companies to operate here. So the regulatory parity is kind of the biggest thing that I think needs to kind of be identified in these deals before we have a real sense, Jake, because this, again, could be a real economic growth driver for American businesses, and that could have a real effect on our GDP.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
So that's the biggest thing I'm looking for versus just the tariff number is parity and access to global markets for US companies. And those are the details of the deals that are going to take several months. Normally, these are multi-year trade negotiations with big trade teams that go back and forth over several years to figure these deals out.
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Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
So to create maximal leverage and accelerate outcomes, it seems like A lot of this trade hype got everyone to the negotiating table. Now the hard work's being done to figure out the details of these deals. And hopefully we end up in a better place for American businesses because of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I'll talk about the House tax bill, which I think is, to use your term, J. Cal, absolute disgraziat. I, uh, it is absolute. If you're an American, you should feel shame that your elected officials are proposing that this is the bill that gets passed, that we vaporize this much money, that we put ourselves this much further in debt, that we do not treat the situation as the fiscal emergency.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
that it is. The bill ultimately yields no real change in the annual deficit. The annual deficit could climb to $2.5 trillion being added to the federal debt load every single year going forward. In fact, if you look at the Treasury yields, the 30-year is now kissing 5%. So the United States has called $37 trillion of debt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
At 5%, we're paying close to $2 trillion a year just in interest on our debt. as this debt gets refinanced.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Well, the interest rates are going up because the probability that the U.S. will default on its debt payments, which is what you're buying when you buy U.S. treasuries, you're getting the U.S. government to pay you some number of dollars with interest over time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And the market is now demanding that that interest rate be as high as 5% because of this fiscal situation that the United States finds itself in. We are now burning an additional $2.5 trillion a year, adding to our debt load. We are in a fiscal crisis and we're not willing to admit it. And I've said this from day one, that Doge can only do so much.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And clearly that's the case where they're now talking about sub $300 billion a year in potential annual savings from Doge action. At the end of the day, Congress needs to take action. And this bill from Congress doesn't take much action.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I will tell you that if you look across the board, all of these programs are still being proposed to be run at a cost that is well in excess of their pre-COVID levels. And so I would set two guiding principles if I was to be the benevolent dictator of the United States of America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
My guiding principle number one would be that any program that we intend to continue to persist have its budget level cut to pre-COVID, to 2019 levels. Second would be, and if we did that, by the way, we would be in a much better fiscal situation. The second would be that we add no new programs in the moment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
There's a whole bunch of new shit thrown into this bill, as well as increasing the cost and a few cuts here and there. I'll just highlight a couple that I think are worth noting. You know, there's a cut in the SNAP program, which is the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. That's food stamps.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And I talked about this with Brooke Rollins in the interview I did a few weeks ago, you can watch it on YouTube. And we talked a little bit about how this snap program has absolutely exploded in size from 60 billion a year in 2019, to 120 billion a year today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
So in this budget proposal, they're actually cutting it back by about 30 billion, so to 90 billion, so it's still 50% higher than it was pre COVID. And there's a lot of kind of stories we could go through on what happened during COVID that caused this thing to blow up the way it did. But political wrangling pulled money out of the government into people's pockets, and that is persisting today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I'm a big believer in cutting taxes. Obviously, I'm probably more libertarian than anyone else. on this show or that we've ever had on this show. But at the end of the day, you can't just say, hey, let's cut taxes and spend more than we're making. It doesn't make sense. A lot of this stuff's gonna be exploitable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
The tips and overtime exclusions are a way to pander to people to get votes and now keeping your promises on those votes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I think at the end of the day, the tips and overtime rule could invite a lot of gamesmanship and loopholes that will be created and people will wake up and be like, oh, for example, if I'm an independent contractor, I will enter into a contract with someone that says, here's the service I'm providing you for 50 bucks. And then there's an optional tip you can give me at the end.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And then I will pay taxes on that tip. And I can give you 100 other examples that this will create an inordinate number of crazy, insane loopholes. The interest on the debt at $1.9 trillion a year equates to 7% of GDP. That means 7 cents of every dollar that moves in every transaction in this country is being used to pay down interest on money we overspent in the past.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
It has become an absolute crisis. I think that there's a few folks that should be shout out on this, which is Senator Paul and Senator Ron Johnson, who both highlighted how ridiculously under-impressive the spending cuts are in this bill. I think we've got a lot of work to do. I'm deeply disappointed. I'm scared. And I hope that this all gets kind of fixed up in reconciliation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
All new spending, line itemed out. That's rule one. And rule two is all existing programs got to go back to pre-COVID levels. You do those two things, we're in a great place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Yeah, it's not total dollar amount, it's percent of GDP that you're adding. And right now, at $2.5 trillion a year of deficit, we're talking about a deficit to GDP of like 8%. Yes. 8% a year. This is like Argentina. This is like insane. The fact that we don't treat this like a fiscal emergency and everyone goes up and they tout, oh, we're going to make $60 billion in cuts in Medicaid.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
That's out of $820 billion of annual spend. You know, oh, we're making $30 billion in cuts in SNAP. That's still 50% higher spend in total than we were in 2019 a few years ago when we didn't have that much of a problem. This has become like... such a reset of expectations.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And I worry again, that we went into this, I think in a very optimistic way, thinking that this administration was gonna treat things differently. We had Doge, we had alignment on the importance of the budget, Besson has highlighted it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And then it's kind of back to gamesmanship in DC, all these representatives from Congress show up and try and get money for their constituents in a way that is not sustainable. We're not gonna be able to keep this up and we're not really having the hard and tough conversations we need to be having.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And every year, everyone wants to get elected by keeping programs and keeping money flowing that their constituents elected them to do. And they want to add new programs so they can go on CNBC and say, look at this cool new program I stood up. It's great. It's going to create the future of America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And meanwhile, there's no future of America because we're burning two and a half trillion dollars a year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I don't know if there's a three. But yeah, it's definitely the eight. This is eight, almost nine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
and existential cuts. I mean, it is like an existential crisis that no one's willing to stand up and highlight just how critical this emergency is two and a half trillion dollars of deficit spending on a $28 trillion GDP.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Tell me when in history that's actually worked out at the end of the day, except when you're in some war and you're going to end up taking over some country and getting all their resources.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
This is the debt death spiral that we find ourselves in because what happens is people stop owning treasuries when they start to question whether or not 30 years from now, the U.S. government is going to meet its debt obligations. Even the smallest marginal question of that drives interest rates up 1%, 2%. Suddenly, your 30-year treasury yields at 6%, 7%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And then your interest rates climb, and then your deficit spending climbs. And that's how it becomes a spiral. So now the debt goes up even more than it did the year before. And then the next year, it goes up even more per year than it did the year before. That's why it's called a debt death spiral. And I will say that, let me sorry, let me say one thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
One of the things I've heard in a lot of members of cabinet that I've met with over the last couple of months is we've got all these new sources of revenue. I had an interview with Doug Burgum. He talked about unlocking America's assets. We've got this balance sheet with lots of assets. We're going to do land leases and all sorts of other things. We met with Lutnik.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
He's going to sell the Trump gold card, the immigration card. We met with Besant. He's got these ideas on how we're going to drive. Everyone's got great theory on how we're going to grow GDP and actually grow government revenue. But until those dollars start to flow in, we have to get our fiscal house in order. We have to cut spending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
When those dollars start to flow in, then you can start to spend. But you can't spend ahead because otherwise the cost of the debt and the economics uncertainty is going to limit our ability to execute on the back end on that revenue generation. And I'm very worried about no one kind of paying enough attention to this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
So I just, you know, I feel very passionate having seen this bill that we're just not on the right track. It's really, it's really frustrating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
By the way, Chamath, I'll just give you the numbers from my interview with Burgum. The federal government owns 500 million acres of land. and they have control over 3.2 billion acres in the outer continental shelf, which is the land under the ocean around North America. The resource availability
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
in that land under the water and in the kind of mainland is in the kind of immeasurable trillions of dollars of value. And their business model, Burgum stated business model in the interview I did with him is land leases and royalties. So enter into private partnerships and then participate in the value creation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Which is also Dalio's plan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I'll just respond to two things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And so, for example, the US is now the largest exporter of methane. We have four pipelines that go to this facility that I visited with Doug in the interview I did in Louisiana. They liquefy that natural gas, which is methane. They put it on ships. Those ships go to India. They go to Taiwan, they go to Japan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
So US companies are selling liquid methane that we're pulling out of the ground to those countries that they then use to heat their homes and power electricity production. We don't necessarily need to go back today and say, hey, let's cut entitlement programs deeply. We certainly should make entitlement programs more efficient. We don't need to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
All we have to do is take all the other programs and reset them to COVID or pre-COVID levels. And secondly, is get rid of all the new programs. What's wrong?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Way more serious than that. And it's like when you're in a coffee house or a coffee shop in Europe, and there's this, like, European couple speaking some language you don't understand.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Here's the economic argument. Energy demand, heating demand, power demand is growing globally with or without the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Does the United States, which produces that energy cleaner than anyone else, want to participate and benefit from that energy demand? Or do we want to leave it to other countries that are going to do it in a dirtier way? And what do I mean by that? So natural gas is methane. I'll just give you the natural gas story real quick. We pull it out of the ground.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
We figured out a technique for putting pressure into the ground. That pressure forces the methane to come up through the rocks. And then we capture that methane. And then we liquefy it. So reduce it down by like 800 times size. So now it's liquid. It's negative 160 degrees Celsius. And we can transport it
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
methane, when it burns to create electricity, is 60% less carbon into the atmosphere than burning oil or coal. So the first argument is methane is a cleaner way of producing electricity than oil or coal, which would be alternatives. However, when methane leaks, it's 80 times more heat capture than CO2.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
So you gotta make sure that your methane production, your methane extraction systems are tight, aren't leaking methane, and that makes it a cleaner- And we have that regulation in America and other countries don't. And other countries don't do as good a job, et cetera, et cetera. And then that power is going to be generated and someone's going to make that energy somewhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
So if it is a cleaner power source and we can make it cleaner and we can do it better, then it's certainly the case that the United States should be, as we are today, an LNG or liquefied natural gas or liquid methane exporter. So that's like also.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Yeah, yeah. And I'll just say, like, just to go back a couple comments to Chamath's point, number one, monetize our assets. Totally agree. There's opportunities. We got to do it in a clean way. We follow the law. We follow the EPAs there to make sure that these methods and systems that we use are not endangering species or the planet or whatever other kind of acts are important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
But I'm not sure that the ramp up is gonna make up for the deficit. I think that's really important. It's great to say that at a high level, there's a North Star there, we can monetize our assets. But as you build out the annual plan over the next 10 to 15 years, first of all, political cycles are gonna affect this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
If the Democrats come back into power in this next election cycle, they'll put a blockade on this stuff. It's not gonna be persistent. So again, we have to fix the spending problem. And this idea that we have to cut entitlements to fix the spending problem. I don't even think that that's step one. I think step one is don't add new programs. Step two, go back to COVID level spending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And then step three is you can address the entitlements and all the other kind of spending. And step four is you execute as quickly as you can on monetizing America's assets. But I'm not sure that the ramp up is going to be fast enough to make up for the deficit over the next four years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Well, my science corner today is just a rant against the governors who are signing laws banning cellular meat. And I'll just hit on it real quick.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Correct. Governor DeSantis did this in Florida, since then Alabama, Mississippi, Indiana. What's your issue with the cellular meat, sir?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
It doesn't taste that bad. This week, Montana's governor, Greg Gianforte, signed a law, House Bill 401, banning cellular meat That bill goes into effect on October 1st. You guys can laugh all you want. If it was in a market that you were an investor in, in innovation or technology, for example, if they said, we ban AI in our state, how would you guys react?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
What sort of opinion or commentary would you guys have on the show?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And now, by the way, there's a house bill being proposed to do the same thing throughout the United States. Meanwhile, China and Europe are building cellular meat systems that are rocketing ahead. They're actually economic drivers because they make the cost of food cheaper. They create new industries. There's a lot of supply chain that goes into these industries.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Whether consumers like or want to buy the product or not should be left to the consumer. It should be a free market. The market should decide. As long as they're regulated, check for health, check for safety, as they all are today, the FDA, the USDA, and others are all involved in regulating these systems.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
They shouldn't be banned because in every single state, they've said the reason we're banning them is to protect our ranchers, our cattle ranchers. And so in all these cases, they're saying it's economic protectionism.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Yeah. And I think the reason is that most of the consumers 95% of them don't give a shit about the product, whereas Uber and others were different. Many people did care about the product, but fundamentally, it unlocks economic opportunities that they don't see today. And I think that's what's really frustrating about this is a small cohort has created regulatory capture mechanisms.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
By getting these laws passed in these states. These are this rancher industry. Can I say something?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I've not even had it. I don't give a shit about the meat itself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
That doesn't mean you pass a law banning it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
It's regulatory capture.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
If this was one of your companies, Chamath, and they were banning some pharma company or social media or some bullshit that you'd started or got invested in, you'd be all up in arms saying, they're blocking us, they're keeping us from developing, we're early stage.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I'm not an investor in anything that's going to benefit from this. I think it's fucked up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
You and I have a very different point of view on regulatory capture, capitalism, and free markets, Chamath. That's a fact.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Would you eat pork that's made in a fermentation tank instead of made by a... Oh, just because he's Jewish, you got to bring up pork? No, I'm actually curious about this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
As is the case with the cost of education and the cost of housing, the cost of drugs is largely inflated because of the federal government's role in being the primary buyer or capital provider to that market.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
So similar to how the US government provides all the capital through the federal home loan program and all of the capital through the federal student loan program, the cost of tuition has no market check and the cost of housing doesn't have a great market check because there's an unlimited endless supply of capital coming from the federal government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
Similarly, through our purchases of prescription drugs, the federal government as a buyer doesn't have any incentive to keep prices low. There's no individual, there's no shareholder, there's no one that has some check that says, you know what, we're actually not going to buy that drug, because it costs too much, or, hey, we need an alternative.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
If every individual had to pay for their drugs, or private insurance was the only way to get your drugs was through private insurance, we would have a much more dynamic marketplace. So the way that we negotiate drug prices is pretty messed up. There's also this construct in the market. These PBMs are pharmacy benefit managers. If they got cut out of the market, it would save a lot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I'll just give you guys some numbers on these PBMs. There's three major PBMs, CVS, Caremark, Express Scripts, and OptumRx. These three companies make, on average, approximately $3 in operating profit per prescription claim processed. They make money in markups. The FTC has been investigating them and have several open cases between 2017 and 2022.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
The estimate that these companies generated $7.3 billion in excess profit by marking up prices on specialty generic drugs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
The list goes on on kind of the egregious behavior and the role that they play as middlemen in the industry, their job, and I'll kind of describe it as to be the managers of prescription drug benefits on behalf of the health insurers, large employers, Medicare Part D plans, and other payers. So as an intermediary,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
they provide this role where they can coordinate between the health insurer, the pharmacy, which dispenses the drugs, and the drug manufacturers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
And now they're allowed to be owned by the payer. And there's a lot of obfuscation of the true cost of the drugs. There's a lot of markups, a lot of spread taking. And so if you took the PBMs out of the market, that would solve one of the problems.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
But at the end of the day, I've said this many, many times before, anytime the federal government is involved as a payer in any market-based system, it creates a distortion and the market is no longer free or efficient.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
I will keep you on the carousel for hours. Oh, my God. Call it the carousel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
There was a period after the Facebook IPO, I swear to God, I would look at chicks on Instagram and get them pregnant.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
This is custom Laura Piano, boys.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
It was brutal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Hope not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Chamath, your thoughts on the tariffs and Andrew's position? I think it's like 120 some odd years. Nick, maybe you can find this tweet that I had, but almost the majority of years as a nation, or close to a majority of the years as a nation, we had no income tax. And the way that we would fund the programs that we needed was not from insiders, but from outsiders.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And that's where the tariff was born, right? It's people domestically in America don't pay any taxes on the things that they do. And instead, if you'd like to sell into the United States, you pay a reasonable tax. So this is the, so many years. So it's 126 years from 1776 to 1861. Then we paused it for a few years because of the Civil War. We restarted again in 1872.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And you notice when it stopped. When it stopped was right around World War I where this entire war machine broke out and we've never looked back. So I don't know. I think that one way to think about this is we're probably going to go back and explore. Isn't it better if we have this incredibly vibrant and rich country of 330 million people with a ton of purchasing power?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
What happens if we put the burden not on them to fund the American infrastructure and social programs and safety net, but if we put the burden on all the companies in the other 7.7 billion people in the world and the 185 plus countries that want access to these folks? Should there be exceptions? Probably. Should there be waivers in very specific and narrow cases? Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
But I think that that's where these guys are going. And I think that you heard this, by the way, yesterday from Howard Lutnick. I don't know if you guys saw this, but he said the Trump tax plan is going to cut federal income taxes to zero for anybody making 150K or less.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
There are two.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
But he's saying, what is the strategic vulnerability? I think the strategic vulnerability is two. The thing with tariffs is, and you're pointing out this- Let's just say today you say there's a tariff and then tomorrow you say, oh, we found an agreement and we're going to take it off the table. One piece of logic would say, wow, that's great. We're able to change our mind on a dime.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
The problem for countries and companies is that they can't think in 24-hour blocks of time, right? They're making decisions in five and 10-year blocks of time. It's like, I'm going to go and borrow a billion dollars. I'm going to go and build a data center. I'm going to borrow $10 billion. I'm going to build tanks, right? Once you start that, you can't just stop it and then restart it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
So that's one strategic problem, which is that if you are not careful, some of these markets that are really crucial, I'll give you one which we talked about last week. Right now, 95% of all of the energy we generate in America is from renewables. Whether you like it or not, that's just what it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
The reason why that's possible is because America has a very sophisticated market where all these people come from all corners of the world, insurance companies, life insurance companies, banks, and they fund all of it. And the reason is they can take a tax credit, they can lower their effective tax rate, they get a higher rate of return.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
It's all super complicated, but the point is these incentives exist. If all of a sudden you... play around with that market, half that energy would go away. Electricity prices would rise. Inflation goes up. And then if we have to go and compete against China for AI and a bunch of other stuff, where is the energy going to come from? You're going to brown out people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
You're going to just turn their energy off so that you can fund a data center so that the TikTok algorithm is better. That's literally what we would have to decide. So that's one way. And to American people for which there is no alternative, that becomes really problematic because that person can then pull that product and say, I can't afford to make it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
The obvious example is if you make pharmaceutical drugs for rare diseases What do you do? And again, those are all things that are like multi-decade long decisions. You'd love to make them and unchange them at every 24 hours, but it's just not possible because like you just make these decisions and you're stuck with them for a long time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
That's where the tariff thing becomes problematic if you change them often enough. If you implement them and you're like, this is what it's going to be, the world can adapt and people can figure it out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Do you think America would be okay with this idea of taxing outsiders and then relying on it versus income tax paid by its own citizens?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
That hope, that hope, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
That's all you guys. No, no, no. I've been saying this for months. I've been saying it for months. Nobody cares about the stock market, nor should we. And the reason is because we, people who own these assets, have overly benefited more than we've deserved for the last 15 years. Ever since the great financial crisis in the United States, people who, as Jason said, could cozy up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And by the way, Jason, I think the The claim that you made, which is severely true for how from 2007 up until now has played out. Because if you look under all the programs, if you could have lobbied Obama in those critical years of the GFC- Oh my God, the amount of money that was... No, because we took interest rates literally to zero.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Anybody like us who could have gone and gotten levered up and gone into the stock market was richly rewarded. And the problem is we left everybody else behind. And I think the great thing about Trump is he is going to reset that. He is going to take a lot of wealth away from asset holders. You're seeing it every day, 500 billion, 500 billion. There is no sympathy. I think it's fantastic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
That's what Sean does every time you show up at the house.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Like, literally, you're right. It probably explains why we don't hear anything in the news anymore about anything that's happening with respect to reconstruction or any of the disruption that's happened. It's a rich person problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
It don't work anymore. I think there's one big shoe left to drop. I think we've started the process of really, really taking a bunch of heat out of the asset markets like equities. So we've taken trillions and trillions of dollars of wealth away. I think we're going to take trillions more.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
But the next big market, and this is actually where, Andrew, to your point, we reestablish some hope, I think, for a lot of people is we are going to whack the housing market. It's just going to happen. And let me just say something about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
There are a bunch of mechanisms that have to get cleaned up right now. So one mechanism is that there are a whole host of mortgages that are basically being propped up. It was a program that really got out of control under the Biden administration. Nick, you can find this article. It was in the Wall Street Journal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
we are going to figure out how to get these two government-related agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, out of what's called conservatorship. And these are the folks that are responsible for essentially wrapping guarantees around mortgages so that the mortgage market can function.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
The details don't particularly matter that much, but the point is that what we are doing is we are unwittingly propping up with American taxpayer dollars the US housing market. Why is that bad?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
It is locking an inordinate number of people from that first critical step that actually makes them feel like they are winning and they're on their way to achieving their dreams, which is, can I make a deposit on a home and then can I live this out? And you have these artificially inflated prices all around the country as a result of this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
So I think this next wave is deeply beneficial to the middle class, which is there is no reason like you guys see it when you read the Wall Street Journal. I think it is the dumbest in the world when I see an article, which is like this house, just a sixty five million dollars on point four acres in some rando place in Miami. Yeah, I was thinking Malibu, but yeah, but. What is this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
This makes no sense. And so when you re-rationalize a bunch of equity values and you re-rationalize the cost of a home, I think what you're going to do is you're going to allow a lot more people to find a more reasonable way to enter the housing market. And I do think that that's a really big step in allowing them to feel like they're part of the dream.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
So you lower asset prices, you can own some stocks, maybe you own a 401k, or if you've never had a 401k, but your employer offers it, For the first time, it may actually make financial sense to put a small amount of it in there. You've never been able to own a home, all of a sudden home prices are whacked 30 or 40%, you're able to do that. Because of how Trump goes after the budget,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
When his rate of borrowing for the US government goes down, your mortgage rate goes down. Now all of a sudden you can enter in because home prices are less and you can actually get a mortgage. They may all seem very random, but they can come together in giving 50, 60 million people a shot that they have been screaming since the great financial crisis they don't have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
The reason why we didn't do it goes back to what you said before, which is we had a bunch of very quote unquote well-educated Ivy League trained people running these institutions. And the feedback, I don't even know what it said, but I can tell you what the memo said. There's too much risk. We've sensitized this model. It doesn't make sense. This is the safest thing to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
So it goes back to just like, we need a little bit more practical thinking. Like at the end of the day, why the S&P 500 exists is of all the thousands and thousands and thousands of companies in the world, you know how many companies in the world make more than a billion dollars a year? More than 20,000. And of that 20,000, the S&P 500 is just the 500 best. It's the best of the best of the best.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
So to your point, Freeberg, it didn't take a PhD from Harvard to figure out that if you just owned an index of the absolute 500 best things happening at any given point in time, it would have gone up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I made $4.55 Canadian working at Burger King.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I stole the chicken fingers at night and bring them home. My mom would whip them up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I think people think that their success now works against your best interests.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
You're 100% right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
They restricted making new housing, which makes it worse with the restrictions. Have you guys heard of Warren Buffett's most public failure? No. Warren Buffett's most public failure was when he was brought on as an advisor to Arnold Schwarzenegger when Schwarzenegger was running for governor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And Buffett kind of looked at the laws in California and there's a law in California when you own a home that when you pass on, you can pass it off to your kids and you can basically keep the cost that you paid. in terms of setting the real estate taxes. And it's had an enormously negative effect in unlocking turnover of homes. And that's a large driver of why homes are so expensive in California.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
So Buffett looked at this, and there was a lot of fanfare. Schwarzenegger's like, here's my economic genius. And first thing he said was, guys, I think we should repeal this law. He was gone two days later. It's not popular.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I was 14 or 15 years old, and this is when Rodney King had the shit kicked out of him and almost died. All these race riots in LA, and nothing had changed actually in America, but where I was growing up in Canada, the provincial government created a program that said, if you're a minority and you're on welfare, we'll pay for you to get a job. I was a minority on welfare.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
So I got a job and it was at a startup that was just going parabolic and their stock was going nuclear. And I lived in this part of town and I would see the controller of that company drive past me every day while I was waiting for the bus. And one day he stopped and I went with this guy, Sam Legg. He drove me that whole summer. And he taught me what does the company do?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Why is the founder a billionaire? What the hell does this even mean? He unpacked. And so I saw firsthand what it meant to work not for a salary, but to get a stake in the thing that you're working for. I bought a couple of shares. It went up and it was great. But then I really fell in love with this idea that I could understand something and own a piece of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And then it really accelerated when I graduated from college because I was like Freeburg, I was in debt. And I was like, how the do I get out of debt? And I traded stocks on behalf of my boss, this guy, Mike Fisher, who I thank to this day. And I made so much money right before the dot-com crash. He gave me the money to pay off my student loans. And then ever since then I was hooked.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I was like, okay, I can learn this and I can deal with the vicissitudes of this. Look, the markets are brutal. There are moments where you just wake up and it looks like everything's working. And then there are moments, and this is what everybody needs to understand though, if some of these programs work, where it literally looks like the bottom is falling out. And I cannot describe to people
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
The pressure you will feel on behalf of you and your family when it looks like you're taking a 30 or 40 or 50% negative downturn to your net worth. It inflicts a level of psychological damage that I cannot describe to you. And the bigger the numbers get, by the way, I told this story on Tucker. There was a period where I would wake up and I could just tweet and the markets would go up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
They were like, what's he going to say next? And then it all stopped. And then there was a two and a half year period where I gave it all back and then some. That's frustrating. The Midas touch goes away. It's beyond frustrating. It shakes you to your core. So if we do these programs, I think the Friedberg idea is just beautiful. It's lovely. What about you, Schultz? When did you make it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
But just to finish, if we do it, we have to try to teach people how to deal with the drawdowns because that's where if you don't teach them how to deal with the vol, the volatility of losing money, it's great when everything's green. But those red days, man, how you comport yourself, how you act, how you treat other people in the red days are the only days that matter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
See it happening all the time. I agree with you. I agree with Schultz. I don't think that... I think you're being super reductive. Like, oh, they'll get on the... that all of a sudden understand Dave Swenson's Yale endowment asset allocation model. Bullshit. They won't. I have seen thousands and thousands and thousands of guys over time who deeply steeped in this business wash out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And each to a one, the more sophisticated they get, they all fall to the same pressures, which is they don't know how to simplify and they don't know how to be patient. These are things that every human being needs to learn. And I don't think time in the market actually solves those two traits. Those are psychological traits that you have to go and figure out in a different way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
You look inside yourself and you have to figure those out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
In fact, I'll tell you a great story. Work to do. One of the best things that happened when I invested in the Goals to Stay Warriors, I bought 10% of the team in 2011 or something. I got to meet all of them. And I got to meet a lot of my heroes. And I remember one meeting where I sat with a goatee-like player. Let's just put it that way. We'll bleep it out. We'll bleep it out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
No, I don't want to say his name. Okay. Fair enough. And he asked me the most incredible question. He's like, Chamath, can you explain compound interest? And Shultz, I can tell you, I still have this spreadsheet. I just showed him a compound interest table And he had no idea how 8% versus 10% is like gargantuan. Over 50 years, over 20 years, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Schultz, did they sit you down and give you like the embryos that were viable and then the grades and the gender and you pick one? And what did you pick?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And to your point, it was illuminating that you're right. Unless you go and you jump into it and you live it, And Jason, I agree with you. There's nothing like, look, Stan Druckenmiller says the same thing. Invest, then investigate. There's nothing like putting the risk on. There's nothing like playing a hand in poker. There's nothing like taking a shot at a different strategy in blackjack.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Win or lose, you get feedback. But my point is, most people don't get better. And so that's what you have to solve. It's like, how can you make it interesting, fun? How can you talk about the losses? Like, this is a thing that I had immense trouble with. I still do today. I think I've gotten better with it, is to be able to talk about the losses.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
How do you talk about getting whacked for $4 billion? I can do it now, but it's brutal. Yeah, it stung for a while for you. But you know what? You're a better person since then. You saw me go through it. How ashamed was I for the two years that I had to unwind that shit? It was hard for you. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It was hard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And you measure it the wrong way. Like you point to the number in the bank account, not the way your wife treats you, not the way your kids treat you, not the way your friends treat you. And then you're like, okay, well, I'm 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80% poor. So I'm just that much less of a human being.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
So my point is, if we can get people more into the market, I think it's an incredible thing. But you have to wrap it in these guardrails that have nothing to do with the market. They have everything to do with who you are as a person.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Have you guys watched Stanley Tucci on HBO where he tours Italy? And he does these little- So great. And on TikTok.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I have seen it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I have a question actually. How'd you get into it? How do you keep your, like, how do you pay for your life before you make it? Like what? Like, is it that you have a normal day job?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Was there a moment that where... Because when the cancel culture was alive and well, that's when I first encountered you. It was initially on TikTok, actually. Sure. And you were on fire because you were saying stuff nobody else was saying. And I thought, how does he even dare to pull this shit off? And... So was there, was there a moment that where you broke or you tipped or no?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Can they identify grifters through the microscope?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
So then back to the guy who's got the kid at Dalton now, when you go and negotiate a deal with Netflix, are they basically silent or do they have- Not a single note. Yeah. So you do whatever you want and it is what it is, let it rip.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Well, walk us through that. So you do it. And what do the notes say that you're like.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And there's a towel on it. And there's a towel on it. And that sofa is not cloth for a reason. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Look, you said something at the beginning, which I thought was really interesting, which is you're like a, you have to, great comedians are great observers of culture. So can you, can you just tell us like, just observe the cultural moment? What, we talked a lot about it, but I just want you to be maybe like put a point on it. Where are we? Where's America? What the hell is going on?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
However you feel that question, like what the hell is going on?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
So you did this, right? You had to go? The grainy television with the porn.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
No, I went to the phone. I went to the phone. Yeah, I had no porn.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
We told you so long as time. By the way, you're speaking a profound secret that many administrations in government have known for a long time. And I think this is where some of the mistrust comes from. I talked about this, like maybe it was like a couple months ago, but the most incredible stock market was actually under Biden. The most amount of money printed was under Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
The most cumulative total budget deficits was under Biden. The most amount of short-term refinancing of debt was under Biden. And part of what you can explain is that if you keep the signals that everything is healthy or up, you're allowed to propagate all of these other things that would get very quickly recapitulated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And when you take the gas out of the market and you take the gas out of all these other markets and all of a sudden the price of energy is up and the price of this is up and the price of that is up, then you start to question, hold on a second, why are all of these things as important?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
You know, the above the line, below the line conversation that we have tried to have several times on this pod, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
What do you think about Trump and how he's doing and what he's doing so far? And what do you think about Elon and Doge? Ooh, here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
They're weaponizing it. Absolutely. There was this crazy clip between Rogan and Elon where Rogan was like, how does all this go down actually? And he's like, well, I can't really speak about the corruption because I'm afraid it would get me assassinated. He's like, actually, if I tell you what I know... It was the weirdest two-minute clip, and then they just kind of left it and moved on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And my brain was like, what are they talking about? What must be going on?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Who do you think... Last question. Who do you think is the funniest, if you had to just... Take a wild stab at who the funniest person. Can't pick Chappelle. No, me, me, Jason, or Freeview. Oh, between the three of you? Okay, so. You can say me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I like the way Schultz pronounces, but I may go to Chamath. I like that. Chamath. Chamath. Yeah, Chamath is too, it's too used actually. We should go to a different pronunciation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
They still had to keep it real. I was about eight when I could read and write English well. Eight, okay? Because it was my second language. And when I saw my name written out, I was like, what the fuck did they do to me here? What is this? My middle name is like 15 other letters. Hold on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
This is harder than the Pythagorean theorem. My son is going to be an engineer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
You don't have to take a shot at us. But yeah, okay. I think it was personal. I moved to Texas this year. It's more of a shot at me and Freebird, but go ahead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
I think he's an excellent politician. It's clear he's starting the 2028 campaign. I think he's done a really good job so far. I think Schultz is right. He is unwinding all of the kind of like landmines that the Democrats have stepped on. I think he's learned what Kamala did wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
And now he's taking this very narrow path, which is like, I'm going to basically disavow all the stuff that people don't care about. So all the gender woke ideology stuff, I don't think you're going to hear him talk about. He'll try to drive a narrow wedge on these economic issues. So I don't know. I mean- I think it's going to create a really dynamic 2028 campaign if he gets momentum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
By the way, his popularity has gone up, which is insane, which after the fires and all of the ineptitude in California, all of the corporations that have run away, all of the people that have left, the chaos in San Francisco, after all of that, he started a podcast and his popularity has gone up. It's really incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Your kids, if they were like, I want Haagen-Dazs and it's 9 p.m., you're like, okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I'm just going to go through a couple of examples.
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I want to be on my iPad. I'm playing Fortnite. Leave me alone. I'll go to sleep when I want. You're like, okay.
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Okay, so then your other kid pees in their pants because they're too lazy to walk to the bathroom.
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No, I understand, but I'm just saying there's a spectrum of all of these things, right?
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And your point of view is 100% of it is allowed and you have no judgments.
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I can't believe that.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And what do you think the long-term consequences of that are? And then also, what is the long-term consequences, let's say, on health if they're making decisions you know are just not good, like the ice cream thing at 9 p.m.? How do you manage that in your mind?
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So if they say something, you'll enable it, but then you'll guide, you'll be like, hey, listen, this is not the choice I would make. But if you want it, I do it.
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I find this so fascinating. And so what do you think happens to these kids? I'm sure you have a vision of what they'll be like when they're fully formed adults. What is that vision?
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What's Plato's goal? Eudaimonia, right? Eudaimonia.
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Or like the fulfillment, this concept. Is that what you want for them?
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I'll give you two. Okay. The first is I would say this is a really interesting moment where I would call this the tale of two vice presidents. Very early in the Biden administration, Kamala was dispatched on an equally important topic at that time, which was illegal immigration, and she went to Mexico and Guatemala. And so you actually have a really interesting A-B test here.
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You have both vice presidents dealing with what were in that moment incredibly important issues. And I think that J.D. was focused. He was precise. He was ambitious. And even the... part of the press that was very supportive of Kamala couldn't find a lot of very positive things to say about her. And the feedback was, it was meandering. She was ducking questions.
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She didn't answer the questions that she was asked very well. And it's so interesting because it's a bit of a microcosm then to what happened over these next four years and her campaign, quite honestly, which you could have taken that window of that feedback. And unfortunately for her, it just continued to be very consistent.
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So that was one observation I had because I heard him give the speech, I heard her, and I had this kind of moment where I was like, wow, two totally different people. The second is on the substance of what JD said.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I said this on Tucker and I'll just simplify all of this into a very basic framework, which is if you want a country to thrive, it needs to have economic supremacy and it needs to have military supremacy. In the absence of those two things, societies crumble. And the only thing that underpins those two things is technological supremacy. And we see this today.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
So on Thursday, what happened with Microsoft? They had a $24 billion contract with the United States Army to deliver some whiz-bang thing and they realized that they couldn't deliver it. What did they do? They went to Anduril. Now, why did they go to Anduril? Because Anduril has the technological supremacy to actually execute.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
A few weeks ago, we saw some attempts at technological supremacy from the Chinese with respect to DeepSeek. I think that this is a very simple existential battle. Those who can harness and govern The things that are technologically superior will win and it will drive economic vibrancy and military supremacy, which then creates safe, strong societies. That's it.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
So from that perspective, JD nailed it. He saw the forest from the trees. He said exactly what I think needed to be said and put folks on notice that you're either on the ship or you're off the ship. And I think that that was really good.
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If you want a good photo... Can you get through the intros, please, so we can start? Come on, quick.
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Sorry.
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The correlation between open borders and wage suppression is irrefutable. We know that data and I think that the Democrats, for whatever logic, committed an incredible error in basically undermining their core cohort. I want to go back to what you said because I think it's super important. There is a new political calculus on the field and I agree with you.
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I think that the three cohorts of the future are the asset light working in middle class, that's cohort number one. There are probably 100 to 150 million of those folks Then there are patriotic business owners. And then there's leaders in innovation. Those are the three. And I think that what MAGA gets right is they found the middle ground that intersects those three cohorts of people.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And so every time you see this sort of left versus right dichotomy, it's totally miscast. And it sounds discordant to so many of us because that's not how any of us identify. And I think that that's a very important observation because the policies that we adapt will need to reflect those three cohorts. What is the common ground amongst those three? And on that point, Naval is right.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
There's not a lot that those three would say is wrong with a very targeted form of extremely useful legal immigration of very, very, very smart people who agree to assimilate and be a part of America. I mean, I'm so glad you said it the way you said it. I remember growing up where my parents would try to pretend that they were in Sri Lanka. And sometimes I would get so frustrated.
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I'm like, if you want to be in Sri Lanka, go back to Sri Lanka. I want to be Canadian because it was easier for me to make friends. It was easier for me to have a life. I was trying my best. I wanted to be Canadian. And then when I moved to the United States 25 years ago, I wanted to be American. And I feel that I'm American now and I'm proud to be an American. And I think that's what you want.
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You want people that embrace it. It doesn't mean that we can't dress up in a shawar kameez every now and then. But the point is, what do you believe?
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I agree with you. And the companies that are promulgating that view is what Naval said, those that have an economic vested interest in at least convincing the next incremental investor that this could be true because they want to make the claim that all the money should go to them so they could hoover up all the economic gains. And that is the part of the cycle we're in.
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So if you actually stratify these reactions, there's the small startup companies in AI that believe there's a productivity leap to be had and that there's going to be prosperity.
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everybody on the sidelines watching, and then a few companies that have an extremely vested interest in them being a gatekeeper because they need to raise the next $30 or $40 billion trying to convince people that that's true. And if you view it through that lens, you're right, Sachs, we have not accomplished anything yet that proves that this is going to be cataclysmically bad.
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And if anything right now, history would tell you it's probably going to be like the past, which is generally productive and accretive to society.
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I was going to say this before, but I'm pretty unconvinced anymore that you should bother even learning many of the hard sciences and maths that we used to as underpinnings. I used to believe that the right thing to do was for everybody to go into engineering.
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I'm not necessarily as convinced as I used to be because I used to say, well, that's great first principles thinking, et cetera, et cetera, and you're going to get trained in a toolkit that will scale. And I'm not sure that that's true. I think you can use these agents and you can use deep research and all of a sudden they replace a lot of that skill. So what's left over? It's
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
How do you define yourself?
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
It's creativity, it's judgment, it's history, it's psychology, it's all of these other sort of like software things. Leadership, communication. That allow you to manipulate these models in constructive ways because when you think of like the prompt engineering that gets you to great answers, it's actually just thinking in totally different orthogonal ways and non-linearly.
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So that's my last thought, which is it does open up the aperture, meaning for every smart mathematical genius, there's many, many, many other people who have high EQ. And all of a sudden, this tool actually takes the skill away from the person with just a high IQ and says, if you have these other skills now, you can compete with me equally. And I think that that's liberating for a lot of people.
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Who's going to have the best model five years from now? Hold on. I 100% agree with you.
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I'll be honest. I love that you said, I love the product, but it didn't work. Not enough people say that.
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How could you say that? Sax isn't here. Sax isn't even here and you say that? That is so cold.
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Well, I think the tariffs will be a plug. Are they coming? Absolutely. The quantum of them, I don't know. And I think that the way that you can figure out how extreme it will be, it'll be based on what the legislative plan is for the budget. So there's two paths right now.
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Path one, which I think is a little bit more likely, is that they're going to pass a slimmed down plan in the Senate just on border security and military spending. And then they'll kick the can down the road for probably another three or four months on the budget. Plan two is this one big, beautiful bill that's irking its way through the house.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
And there, they're proposing trillions of dollars of cuts. In that mode, you're going to need to raise revenue somehow, and especially if you're giving away tax breaks. And the only way to do that is probably through tariffs, or one way to do it is through tariffs. My honest opinion, Jason, is that I think we're in a very complicated moment.
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I think the Senate plan is actually on the margins more likely and better. And the reason is because I think that Trump is better off getting the next 60 to 90 days of data. I mean, we're in a real pickle here. We have persistent inflation. We have a broken Fed. They're totally asleep at the switch.
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And the thing that Yellen and Biden did, which in hindsight now was extremely dangerous, is they issued so much short-term paper that in totality, we have $10 trillion we need to finance in the next six to nine months. So it could be the case that We have rates that are like five, five and a quarter, five and a half percent.
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What did you learn building in 2024 and 2025 that you didn't know maybe before then?
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I think that that's extremely bad at the same time as inflation, at the same time as delinquencies are ticking up. So I think tariffs are probably going to happen. But I think that Trump will have the most flexibility if he has time to see what the actual economic conditions will be, which will be more clear in three, four, five months.
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And so I almost think this big, beautiful bill is actually counterproductive because I'm not sure we're going to have all the data we need to get it right.
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Economy feels like it's in a very precarious place.
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And let me know.
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I think that the problem There's an example on the other side of this, which is that there's a company that provides technical support for Oracle, third-party company. And Oracle has tried umpteen times to sue them into oblivion using copyright infringement as part of the justification. And it's been a pall over the stock for a long time. The company's name is Rimini Street. Don't ask me why.
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It's on my radar, but I've been looking at it. And they lost this huge lawsuit, Oracle won, and then it went to appellate court, and then it was all vacated. Why am I bringing this up? I think that the legal community has absolutely no idea how these models work, because you can find one case that goes one way and one case that goes the other. And what I would say should become standard reading
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For anybody bringing any of these lawsuits, there's an incredible video that Karpathy just dropped, that Andre just dropped, where he does like this deep dive into LLMs and he explains chat GPT from the ground up. It's on YouTube. It's three hours. It's excellent. And it's very difficult to watch that and not get to the same conclusion that you guys did. I'll just leave it at that.
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Exactly.
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This is lossy compression. It is absolutely... I'm now on your page. I hate to say this, Jason. I agree with you. You were right. You were right. That's all I wanted to hear all these years.
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Naval, what happened when you went through that phase, there was a period where it just seemed like something had gone on in your life and you just knew the answers. You were just so... grounded. It's not to say that you're not grounded now, but you're less active posting and writing. But there was this period where I think all of us were like, all right, what does Naval think?
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No, bro, he does it. He does it for the love? What was the statement? He does it for the joy, the happiness. The joy, the benefit.
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They're losing money, Jason, so they have to.
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Exactly. You're saying the things that actually the regulators and the legal community have no insight because they'll see a fairness opinion and they think, oh, it says fairness and opinion, two words side by side, it must be fair. And they don't know how all of this stuff is gamed. So, yeah.
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That's news to me. I would say it would be like the late teens, the early twenties. Jason, you can correct me if I'm getting the dates wrong, but it's in that moment where like these Naval-isms and this sort of philosophy really started to, I think people had a tremendous respect for how you were thinking about things. I'm just curious, were you going through something in that moment?
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These fairness opinions are gamed. But the reality is I don't think the legal and the judicial community has any idea.
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Yeah, let's wrap on your story. I had an interesting... Nick, we'll show you the photo. I had an interesting dinner on Monday with Brian Johnson, the don't die guy. Came over to my house. How's his erection doing overnight? What we talked about is he's got three hours a night of nighttime erections. Wow, look at this. By the way, first of all, I'll tell you.
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I think that he's... Wait, which one of those is giving him the erection? No, no, no, he measures his nighttime erections. I think Kuhn is giving him the erection. But he said that when he started, so by the way, he said he was 43 when he started this thing. He was basically clinically obese. Yeah. And in these next four years, has become a specimen.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
He now has three hours a night of nighttime erections, but that's not the interesting thing. At the end of this dinner, by the way, his skin is incredible. I was not sure because when you see the pictures online, but his skin in real life is like a porcelain dolls. Both my wife and I were like, we've never seen skin like this. And it's incredibly soft. Wait, wait, wait, whoa, whoa, whoa.
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How do you know his skin is soft? You know, you brush your hand against his forearm or whatever. You know, he gives a hug at the end of the night. I'm telling you the guy's skin is soft. He has supple skin? Bro, it's the softest skin I've ever touched in my life. Anyways, that's not the point. It was really fascinating dinner. He walked through his whole protocol.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
But at the end of it, I think it was Nikesh, the CEO of Palo Alto Networks, he was just like, give me the top three things. Top three. And of the top three things, what I'll boil it down to is the top one thing, which is like 80% of the 80%. It's all about sleep. I was about to guess sleep. And he walked through his nighttime routine and it's incredible and it's straightforward.
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It's really simple. It's like how you do a wind down. Anyways, I have tried to- Explain the wind down briefly. Let's just say that because Brian goes to bed much earlier. So our normal time, let's just say 10, 10.30. So my time, I try to go to bed by 10.30. He's like, you need to be in bed. You need to, first of all, stop eating three or four hours before, right? And I do that.
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I eat at 6.30, so I have about three hours. You're in bed by 9.30 or 10. You deal with the self-talk, right? Like, okay, here's the active mind telling you all the things you have to fix in the morning. Talk it out. Put it in its place. Say, I'm going to deal with this in the morning. Write it down in a journal, you're saying? Whatever you do so that you put it away. You cannot be on your phone.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
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That's got to be in a different room. You just got to be able to shut it down. And then read a book so that you're actually just engaged in something. And he said that he typically falls asleep within three to four minutes of getting into bed and starting his routine. What? I tried it. So I've been doing it since I had dinner with him on Monday. Last night, I fell asleep within 15 minutes.
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The hardest part for me is to put the phone away. I can't do it. Of course.
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But if something winds- So you think like you can scroll TikTok and fall asleep is fine?
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
You have a set time every night?
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God damn, I'm in bed by 10. Yeah, I need to sleep.
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I do the body scan. The coda to this story was a friend of mine came to see me from the UAE. And he was here on Tuesday and I was telling him about the dinner with Brian. And he told me this story because he's friends with Khabib, the UFC fighter. And he says, you know, when Khabib goes to his house, he eats anything and everything, fried food, pizzas, whatever. But he trains consistently.
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And my friend Adala says, how are you able to do that? And how does it not affect your physiology? He goes, I've learned since I was a kid. I sleep three hours after I train in the morning and I sleep 10 hours at night. And I've done it since I was like 12 or 13 years old. That's a lot of sleep. It's a lot of sleep.
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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
You do that at night before you go to bed?
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Is that why you don't prepare for the podcast?
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Do you think it's an accident? Freeburg, what's your sleep routine? Can you just go to bed? You just like close your eyes?
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But you do it every night, a warm bath?
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With candles too. And do you do it right before you go to bed?
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So do you have a consistent time where you go to bed or no?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Man, I need eight hours, otherwise I'm a mess. I go to bed at 10.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Uh,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
He moved into the Roosevelt...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
I love you guys. What have we learned? I got to go. Okay. Big shout out to Bobby and to Tulsi. That's a huge, huge, huge win for America. I'm stoked about both of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
How to get rich. Remember that one? How to get rich. That was just like one of the first threads.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Yeah, that was a banger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Is it problematic when people now meet you because the hype versus the reality, there's like, it's discordant now because people, if they absorb this content, they expect to see some quasi-deity floating in the air. You know what I mean? Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Did she feather your bangs and blow your hair out? She did. She gave you a blow, didn't she?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
It turns out that that's not entirely true because what it left behind was nearly 163 million dead trees. Dead, like gone. And so you would say, well, those things should have been removed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And the problem is that then there's this California Environmental Quality Act, CEQA, hopefully I'm pronouncing this right, and a whole bunch of these other regulatory policies that limited the ability of local governments and fire management to clear these dead trees and vegetation. And I think that that's a really big deal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And when you double click on that, here's where you find the real head scratcher, okay? Multiple bills, AB 2330, AB 1951, AB 2639, all rejected by the Democrat-controlled legislator, or worse, vetoed by Governor Newsom. that would have exempted these wildfire prevention projects from CEQA and other permitting issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Then there were other bills to try to minimize the risk of fires by burying power lines underground. SB 103, as an example, went nowhere, didn't even get to the governor's desk. So I'm just a little bit at a loss to explain these two bodies of data. One is everybody can see that these events are happening. Southern California lived through this exact type of moment just six years ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
All the bills that are meant to prevent this are blocked or vetoed. This is the ultimate expression of negligence and incompetence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jason, what did California learn from this? What did Gavin Newsom implement based on what happened here? What did the city of Los Angeles implement based on what happened here? I want to just specifically know the answer to those two questions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Good. How are you? What are you wearing exactly?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Why are you speaking in Elizabethan English?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Okay. No, but that's a blow dryer. Just, yes, right? She blow dry your hair?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I don't think this is to blame. If all of a sudden, because of DEI, 70% were physically incapable of carrying out the task, and that's why these fires grew, maybe you could make the claim that it is a DEI problem. I do agree with Friedberg that the thing that these public institutions need to do a better job of is being very clear about what their North Star is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think the North Star for the fire department is to save people's lives and put out fires. I think the North Star for the police service should be to save people's lives and to hold criminals responsible and get them off the streets. and you should hire the people that allow you to do that job the best.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
The thing to keep in mind is that there were probably 20 or 30 people interviewed to be fire chief. It's not her fault that she was selected. The real question is, what was she mandated to focus on once she got the job? And I think what you see in all of these interviews is I don't think that she all of a sudden after growing up through the fire service had this DEI bent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think typically what happens is it becomes an institutional directive. It guides your compensation, it guides your recognition, and so you do it. It's sort of what Charlie Munger says, show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome. The entire public service is riddled with this. The entire private service is riddled with this, which is that we've lost the script about what is important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So it's yet another example. She's probably quite a capable person who, if was just allowed to focus on fighting fires and saving people's lives, would probably do a good job. But if you had to add all these other things that are not germane to that task, then people will get frustrated and projected onto her.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
All of that said, though, I think you got to go back to how did these fires start? How did they grow out of control? And again, I think that these wins didn't come out of nowhere in the sense that they caught everybody off guard. This has happened before. That area has gone through this exact moment Yes. There were laws that were proposed. They were vetoed. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So that even if you could have controlled it, then you see certain developers like Rick Caruso who were able to protect the buildings that he was responsible for because he took proactive and protective measures. Could those proactive and protective measures not be taken more broadly through LA County? Of course they could have. Why were they not?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Let me ask a very specific question. How much money, and we know the answer to this, how much money did the government of California spend poorly, as it turns out, on homelessness? It was about $21 billion and illegal immigrants. I don't know what the final number is there, but I suspect in the tens of billions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
If you reappropriated those dollars to these kinds of protective mechanisms in these areas, what would the outcome have been? Maybe there still would have been a fire. Maybe there would have been damage. But it's hard for me to believe it would have been as bad as it is right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
While you've been gallivanting and being a dilettante, your original adopted home state is burning to the ground.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
You're so right. I mean, when are we going to get tired of all this late stage progressivism? It's like these litany of excuses. The people that are in charge have failed us yet again. Exactly. We have wasted so much money on so many things that don't move the needle. And then the things that they needed to do, they didn't do. And then they point the finger at climate change. It's a joke.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Yeah, that's not sustainable. So you can't tell what the quality of the haircut's like because you're never going to do that again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Let me maybe bring something that ties these three things together, but it builds on critically what Cyan said. There are so many people here that are good, hardworking people that lost their homes. For many of these folks, it could be the most single and only financially securing asset that they have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
For other people, those that are family age, they have kids now beyond the financial damage that are totally displaced. Where will these folks go?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
There was a comment by Adam Carolla, a commentary, where he said, the real test, to Cyan's point, will be how they internalize and metabolize this because it now affects them personally and they have to go and wait three years to build building permits to rebuild. Now, that's assuming that they can even get a reasonable amount of insurance coverage, which touches Freeburg's point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
This is the real tragedy. That is the actual tragedy multiplied by 120,000 or 200,000 families. And the real question is how much of that was completely avoidable. And I think there is a reasonable amount of it that could have been. That's what really sucks. And that's where you cannot take your finger off the scale and forget.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So then you promoted the tweet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
No, you know the answer. You know the answer. Taxpayer. Taxpayer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Well, I mean, should's a very strong word. The cap on the insurance reimbursement is about 3 million is my understanding. David, you can tell me if I'm wrong, but I think that's right. The houses in the Palisades are anywhere from, call it 1 million on the low end to maybe 40 or 50 million on the high end.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Right, but the median is probably more instructive, which is probably seven or eight million. Yes. My point is that folks will get less than half their home value back. They're going to have to come up with some amount of money to then rebuild. But the cost of rebuilding a 7,000 square foot house in the Pacific Palisades is probably at least 1,000 square foot. So that's 7 million of cash.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So now all of a sudden, these people have to come up with a lot of money. Exactly. And that's post-tax money. So you might as well double it because California is just so egregiously burdensome in terms of taxes. So the individual homeowner is not going to be in a position to rebuild.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think that the liabilities of the insurance claims are going to be so massive that the state's going to look to the federal government to bail them out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jason, you want to tell people about Cyan's background?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
No, I understand that. Then this is why, because if you get the blow and it looks good in the blow. Just say blow out, please. Just say blow out. It's a four word. Why? What are we, six?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Let me ask you guys a question. Disgraceful. What do we do?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think we need to have a wholesale replacement of the people that govern the state of California. It's just not working. Period. Full stop. And I think that the citizens that live in California need to do some real soul searching. It is beyond party politics.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So I think what has happened in California is people vote for whatever vessel has the name Democrat beside their name or Republican beside their name. And I think that you have to go back to first principles and do a better job of picking the people to represent us because the people that are in positions of power just don't fundamentally know what they're doing. They're not capable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And the fact that then what we have to deal with are sort of lies and distractions to excuse incompetence, I think is unacceptable. I think we pay way too high of a price. And like I said, you are now dealing with hundreds of thousands of families whose entire lives have been totally disrupted and ripped away.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And I hope that we learn something from this because we didn't learn from it eight years ago. And we clearly didn't learn from it when a different natural disaster in North Carolina. Will we find out that folks said, hey, guys, is there an outlier natural disaster event? Obviously, it's not going to be the same thing in North Carolina, but could a different form of something happen here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
What could it be? Are we prepared? I'm sure we'll find out that they didn't do that. Maybe they had different meetings and they were about other total distractions or things that just didn't matter. So this is what we need to do. We, as a populace in this state, need a reset. Otherwise, we deserve what we get. Bingo.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
A little bit, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Well, thanks. That's a very nice... Let me try. Cyan is a prolific angel investor. Correct. I just said that. She was a part of Founders Fund. Oh, right. She runs a seed fund called Long Journey Ventures. Okay. Some of her hits include SpaceX, Anduril, Density, Postmates, Niantic, which is the makers of Pokemon Go, and Jason's favorite startup, Uber. Uber.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I would start by saying I think he's a phenomenal businessman. I mean, I think the results speak for itself. But I also think that that is exactly what explains the shift. In many ways, he had to make that shift. I think it's fair to say that in the Obama and Biden administrations, when the winds were blowing towards censorship, they were part of that machinery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And that was the value-maximizing function for Facebook shareholders in that time. Because if you push back against that, it's not clear what would have happened to Facebook in other ways. And so I think the decision, whether he morally agreed with it or not, almost didn't matter. It's the leadership of the country in which I operate is telling me it's going to go this way. I go that way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Once the Biden and Obama administration sort of went to the wayside, there's a very interesting picture that Donald Trump put in his book. And I just, I sent it to Nick. And I think it sort of explains the last week's events relatively well. So I'll just read it. This is a picture of him sitting in the Oval, and it says, Mark Zuckerberg would come to the Oval Office to see me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
He would bring his very nice wife to dinners, be as nice as anyone could be, while always plotting to install shameful lockboxes in a true plot against the president in J. Cal all caps. Okay. Shout out to the president. He told me that there was nobody like Trump on Facebook, but at the same time, and for whatever reason, steered it against me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
We are watching him closely, and if he does anything illegal this time, he will spend the rest of his life in prison, as will others who cheat in the 2024 presidential election. Now, that's what he put in the book. And then he was asked about this quote. At a recent press conference, Nick, do you have the link to that? He's colorful, Freeberg. Did you notice? Donald Trump, a little bit colorful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Essentially, Trump was asked about Zuckerberg's move to free speech. And he was asked, you know, do you think it was because of your...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
But again, the lens that I would put on this is now the winds are blowing in a different direction. And I do think it's the value maximizing function. I think Elon didn't make a value maximizing function. He made a moral decision. He did it when it was unpopular and where the winds were clearly blowing in the opposite direction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Now that those winds have changed and it's clear Trump won in early November, the decisions you make in January are more reflective of the new conditions on the field coming into the inauguration. But I do think it's the smart value maximizing decision yet again for Facebook shareholders. And I think it begets a broader point.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think the thing is when you see Elon operate, he's a complete outlier in many dimensions. But I think the one dimension where it matters the most is that he acts morally and in the best interests of what he believes humanity benefits from. He's always done it. He was willing to torch $44 billion when he bought Twitter in order to do it. And so he does these things from his own perspective.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I don't think there's any other CEO that leads this way. And I don't think they should necessarily. I do think that, you know, Mark's a good person, but his intimate feelings should be known by his wife, his children, his friends, his family. I don't think we as shareholders have any right to know necessarily. Elon is different.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And I think it creates an expectation that maybe we'll get that from everybody else. But I wouldn't conflate everybody else with him. So I think that this is a smart business decision. It makes a ton of sense. And as you can see, he was basically told to do this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
But I mean, it's a smart business move. I think if you're a meta shareholder, I think you're happy to see it. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Well, hold on, that's not fair. That's not fair. You don't know because, again, what I'm saying is... I said based on my estimation. No, but Jason, what I'm trying to say is... Elon shares who he is in a 360 degree way with the world. So we know where he stands. And all I'm saying is what Mark does or doesn't believe really isn't known to us. It's probably known to his wife and his family.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And his board. I doubt his board even knows actually.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Not popular, Jason, necessary for maximizing his business in that moment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
How about this, guys? However we got here, we're here, and we should all be happy that we're here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
What I'm saying is if you get a haircut and you get a blow, it's very hard for you to know. No, but I'm serious. It's very hard for you to know what it's going to look like the next day when you take a shower and when you don't, you know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Yeah, I'll take the win. And we just kind of move forward. Top of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Because you can judge a person when they're put under pressure to make the right decision. I think what Jason is expressing is sort of what I was trying to say, and I probably said it poorly. I think there are some of us who look at the way that Elon runs himself and his companies, okay, as a sort of world-beating technology CEO. And then that sort of sets the bar.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
But I think that that bar is impossible to meet. And I think part of it is because of Elon's genius. The other part of it is his success. The other part of it is his influence. But there's an element, Jason, of fundamental moral risk-taking that he takes that has been rewarded over and over again that no other CEO has had to make. And when they have, they've largely failed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And so I understand where you're coming from, but I would give a lot of folks the benefit of the doubt here and say... It's not clear what they believed then versus what they believe now, but the destination is very good. And we're in a better place for society. And hopefully we can maintain these norms independent of who's in charge after Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Seven or eight years ago, Jason approached Cyan and I and said, hey, guys. Harvey Weinstein has asked me to make a show. Yes. True story. No, it's a true story.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Oh, dude. Take it down a notch. Cyan, myself, and Jason went to someplace in the city and we taped a... We taped an episode. I have it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
The first episode?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I don't have much of an opinion on that, to be honest. I think that sort of along the lines of what I said on the prediction show, I think that Waymo and Tesla are going to run away with this market, and I think it's going to force a bunch of consolidation in the traditional auto OEMs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I think the interesting thing is that they really doubled down and created a pretty decent test bench for robotics. I thought that was pretty interesting. So I think that reinforces what a lot of smart people, including what Freeberg and Gavin also spoke about, just in terms of the long-term future for robots. I think that that was cool. I was a little confused by the low-end PC.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I don't understand what the point of that is. Maybe it like creates some crazy deep end market where you can buy GPU and then contribute it to some distributed network and allow some distributed workload to run on that, I guess. I don't know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Yeah, I guess the point is a toy to do what? Because if you're trying to do inference, like everything is telling us that we are reaching the limits of training. And- That's an LLM though. Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
It was very awkward because afterwards they approached Cyan and I to do the show. Without me. Without Jason. And so we had to, we had to decide. Friends like me and Cyan. Ha! Who needs enemies? We decided our friendship was more important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Let me get to it. Yeah, yeah. So in this world of AI that we know it today, there's training and there's inference. And right now we think that there's training that's at a limit. And so now the market shifts to inference. So if you're going to buy this jacked up personal computer, what are you going to use it for? My suspicion is some sort of test time compute use case.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
which is an inference use case. But it's not clear to me why that's a better solution than all of the AI accelerators plus tensors that are now just prolifically being exposed to the market, whether it's Amazon exposing what they've done, whether it's Google exposing what they've done, a whole litany of startups exposing what they've done. So I was just confused. I don't really know
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
what the whole point is. But like I said, the robotics thing was interesting if the market develops in the way that they think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I mean, I thought it was really interesting, and I was just caught off guard at how the media tried to portray it as Trump being Trump. Goofy, whatever, colorful. But I think like what I've realized, even with the California fire thing, the guy has this prescient way of, he may not say it in the way that it works for some people, but he's just really on top of this stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So I just said Nick a thing. So I started to learn a little bit more about why he wants to take over Greenland. And it really comes down to one very basic idea here. Because of climate change and other things, the Arctic ice shelf is melting. And the more and more it melts, it opens up a shipping lane in the northern passage for a lot of critical goods.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And so if you had some sort of strategic agreement with Canada and Greenland, you effectively have this monopoly control over something that could become as important as the Panama Canal. And so I think if you look across the world, The control of maritime shipping lanes becomes this really critical strategic military and economic asset.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
And so the reason why he's trying to find a way to initiate some sort of a discussion between Greenland and Canada is exactly this reason. And I think it's sort of like a bargaining gambit, the way that he started. But it's really smart that he's trying to get this done for the United States of America.
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LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Because meanwhile, what you have is China militarizing very aggressively, Russia militarizing very aggressively. And what you don't want to have happen is those two countries take control of that northern passage as the ice sheet melts. So I just thought that was important.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
You know what's smart? I mean, let's give Trump credit. What's so smart is like somebody was doing this work, got it in front of him, and he was smart enough to say, hold on a second, this is really important. Let me tweet it. And then the way that he initiates it, though, gets even more attention because if he basically tweeted,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Hey, guys, I have this really interesting idea to gain more leverage in a northern maritime shipping lane. Nobody would have paid attention. Absolutely not. Nobody would have. And now we're all talking about it. And now there's an opportunity for millions of people to understand why and be supportive of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
But Jason, that's not what he's doing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Right. We somewhat, yeah, we somewhat abandoned all that in Greenland, but there is a lot of that infrastructure still sitting around here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
How do you explain the pyramids?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So somebody sent me an email. Oh. And he said what they did was they flooded the area. And then they floated the rocks into place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Mine was better. Mine was better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
It's great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
I mean, I'm not very sympathetic to the, there were 100 mile an hour winds, not because it's not true, but there's been enough modeling that we know that these kinds of outlier weather events are happening in greater and greater frequency.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Nick, maybe you can find this and just put it up here, but remember that crazy apocalyptic video of that exact same part of Southern California in 2018 burning to the ground? Can we just look at that, all of us collectively? Because that was six years ago. This is not like it was a distant memory from 100 years ago. We knew in 2018 that these types of- Oh, the Sepulveda Pass.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So this idea that we were just lollygagging around and got caught off guard by 100 mile an hour winds to me is completely not an acceptable answer. We knew in 2018 that these things could happen. We knew across the rest of the United States that these outlier weather events were happening in greater and greater frequency.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
If you weren't sure, you saw most of the insurance companies try to dump Southern California homes fire coverage three months before this event happened. So all this data was in the realm of the knowable. And then when you double click and you get into a little bit more of the details, there's a level of incompetence bordering on criminal negligence here that we need to get to the bottom of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
So I'll just give you a couple of facts. In the 1950s, the average amount of timber, so wood that was harvested in California, was around 6 billion board feet per year. In the intervening 70 years, that shrank to about 1.5 billion board feet. And so you'd say, okay, well, that's a 75% reduction. We must be making a very explicit stance on conservation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Here's where tariffs make a lot of sense. If you have markets where there are domestic alternatives... and or where things are fundamentally commodity, there's no reason why tariffs can't work to create the incentives to redomicile economic productivity inside of the United States. That's a slam dunk, I think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
And what I would say is the other side of the tariff knife is that if there are markets, though, where you're making something that's fundamentally innovative, where you are but one maker, The problematic part of where tariffs really affect the US consumer is then the price of that product of which there are no competitive alternatives can go very, very high. And that's inflationary.
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And I think that that slows down consumption. And then if that consumption is not just of something that's a nice to have, but a must have, then it becomes problematic. And so you could see where tariffs could impact certain industries. For example, if there are innovative drugs, I think that that's problematic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
If there are innovative technologies of which there's only one vendor, that's problematic. So all of those need to get sorted out. But on balance in commodity markets, like look at autos. Autos is a perfect example. There are so many purveyors and providers of autos. There's OEMs all around the world. And so to have a compensatory system
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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doesn't seem like an unreasonable thing, where it's a tit for tat tariff. But in other markets where if you need, for example, a specific piece of equipment from ASML to build a chip, and now all of a sudden that that machine is 25% more expensive or 30% more expensive, and they pass that cost downstream, it becomes very speculative, and it becomes a little bit more fragile, I think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Exactly. So this is why I think sector by sector, you can probably go and pass the smell test and say, if there are multiple providers and or if it's somehow commodity, I think it's easier to absorb the tariff in the short term.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Maybe that's the right way to say it, which is if you believe, if Trump believes everything should be tariffed, then instead of debating if, to your point, maybe the right thing to debate is when. And you have to put some things on a much longer glide path so that you don't just create inflation out of nowhere and or you don't hold back American business or American consumers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
And Friedberg- Wait, what would you like to know? Why don't you ask me a question?
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Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Number two. But I do think you have to look at the earnings of these companies and question where's all of this. Number two.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Thank you, Mr. President. This may not be ServiceNow's fault. This may be the ineptitude of the people that bought the licenses.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
The only thing harder than canceling an Adobe license is trying to cancel Wall Street Journal. I was about to say Wall Street Journal. That's the worst. Disgracia. All-time hall of fame. Let me just say something about the budget because Joe brings up something important. Unbelievable. I'll just say it again at the sake of being redundant.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
We're getting to the phase where the details are complicated and they now matter. So we've talked about repealing the IRA in its totality, right? So that was a statement. And there's theoretically a lot of money there. But the details now all of a sudden become complicated. FERC published a report just this past week.
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And what do you think it said was the percentage of incremental electricity that was generated from renewables versus non-renewables? I'll tell you the answer. It was almost 91% in December. So if you now tie two huge initiatives together, which is how do we find a budget that saves money and how do we continue to win in AI? Maybe you would have thought those weren't related. Well, guess what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
We know that AI needs a tremendous amount of power. And whatever you thought you knew actually, you had to re-underwrite because what Elon has shown is actually you need to now create these mega clusters 100,000 GPUs going to a million GPUs. All of the power forecasting that we have is miscast. It doesn't even account for this, number one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Nat was in Rome all last week. Great. What was she doing in Rome? She had to go see her factory. She also had to go and renew her visa at the U.S. Embassy there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Number two, there are 35,000 applications into FERC to get approved to generate electricity, 35,000. That's going to meander through some administrative rigmarole. There is a five-year delay to get a gas turbine into America and online. Okay, if you ordered one today, the fastest that you can get it turned on is 2030. The fastest that you can get nuclear turned on is 2035.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
So we don't have the ability to generate incremental electricity very quickly, but for renewables. But then if you rip out the IRA, There's many parts of the IRA, by the way, that are just trash.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Nick, I don't know if you can find it, but Barry Weiss found this insane thing that made me so angry, which I'm happy to talk about, which was like a 30-day grant process that resulted in a $7 billion grant to some shell NGO.
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But the other part of the IRA, this narrow part, is what it did to reinforce tax incentives and tax equity, which is a $200 billion market that incentivizes that 90% of energy generation. So my point is that when you start to get into the details, when the House Ways and Means Committee has to figure out
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what part to put back, this is going to be hard because it's like, hold on, if you gut the whole thing, now all of a sudden you take 90% of the incremental energy generation incentives out of the market, you don't have enough electrons. There isn't enough electricity. So then you lose the AI race. So you start to lose it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
I think the point is that we're now in the hard part where the details really matter. Listen, you got to start with the chainsaw. We saw that at Twitter. And by the way, Trump just tweeted it. When we started this, he just tweeted this out. He said, guys, now it's time to get surgical. And he said this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Can I just do a rant on this pop-up NGO thing? To me, this is like the worst of America and it makes me so angry. And I'll tell you my lived experience. So I'm on the other side of this. I started a company with these guys from Tesla to make battery materials in the United States in 2019. We grind, we grind. I put in tens of millions of dollars. We get a deal with a big OEM.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then you see these DOE grants. We spent millions of dollars. We file a very detailed plan to build battery metals and battery capacity in America. We got rejected, okay? It was an entire year-long process. We got rejected. We put it past us. We kept working. We found more deals. We found a way to survive, raise a little bit more money.
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Well, she's on an EB-2 visa. She should switch to this EB-5 as soon as it's announced. Ooh, yes, you can get the golden visa.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then we applied again on some success, and we got a $100 million grant, okay? That's what just happened this year. But then yesterday I read, and Nick, maybe you can throw this tweet up, this Barry Weiss investigation. Somebody in 30 days who was connected to the democratic infrastructure had some shell organization that got a grant that was 70 times bigger than us. Like we've made stuff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
We have deals with OEMs. We had to validate it every step of the way. We were rejected once. So our process to get $100 million DOE program was two years. These people showed up in 30 days and got 7 billion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Who knows? I am the king of nighttime erections. I go to bed thinking about myself and I wake up thinking about myself. Big erection in between.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
How do they give $7 billion in 30 days? We're going to find out. You got a bunch of Democratic operatives on the board.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think that if you're in the administration or if you join some part of the administration, whether you're a full-time employee or a GSE or just a volunteer, there's going to be that perception of impropriety or influence peddling. That comes with the territory. So how do you avoid it? And I think that Joe is exactly right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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When the administration was getting formed, one of the things that happened, I had an opportunity to work with some of the folks to write some proposals for what theoretically could happen in some of these bigger government organizations where there's just huge pockets of spend. And where I spent most of my time is what Joe talked about.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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How do you create open standards so that it's very clear what the competition is, so that the rules on the ground can't get manipulated by people who are rolling out of government into private industry, or somebody has a very deep relationship because of lobbying. Those are the things that pervert the clarity of what should happen, because then what happens can be far afield of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So number one is I think knowing that this time around, a different class of people are gonna be seen on the quote unquote popular side. It's really critical that all of us that are involved in this promote extremely transparent open standards, publish every RFP, publish every spec, publish every evaluation criteria, make these things as mechanistic as possible. So for example,
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If you're going to go and field a drone, there's an incredibly detailed set of data that you should be publishing in. It's not dissimilar to how an FAA asks for flight test data, and you should be able to
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Review that so that then it can be escalated so that if somebody then gets a deal because of preference and you think you're structurally better on the data, there needs to be an escalation and a release valve that says, hold on, this is just being manipulated. And I think that's how you fight back on not just this version of a potential winning side versus losing side, but forever in the future.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The government should be open. the government should be transparent, and every single point at which they're making a decision and giving money should be measurable and known.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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There's transparency.
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Go back to this other thing, because that's a super important point. Like, it just occurred to me that if what you said happens, then look, the incentive today in America is to try to position oneself to have one of these roles. And the reason is because, David, of what you said, there is the chance to then preferentially nudge an opportunity your way, right? Yes. Why do people sit on committees?
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Why do people volunteer? at least at that level. And if you introduce open standards, then the real incentive to want to go do this should be because you actually are patriotic and want to just help.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, I know, I'm just saying generally over like the last 50 years, if you look at people, there is this implied sense, like for example, like Goldman Sachs had a direct line to become treasury secretary. If you were the CEO of Goldman, you were the treasury secretary. Now, don't you think that that was discussed amongst partners at Goldman?
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And do we not think on the margins that that beneficially helped Goldman? Of course it did. We'd be naive to think otherwise. My point is not that. My point is just that going forward, the best thing all of our friends could do is just make it all open source and open standards. That would be an incredible artifact, I think, for America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think it's important to note that this pendulum has swung pretty wildly out of whack since Citizens United. And this is not a Republican thing, meaning there's a whole bunch of factions. There's the George Soros faction, that's true. There's the liberal Democrat faction. Lest we forget, I think Zuck spent 350 million in 2020. Oh, yeah. Then there's the Koch brothers faction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then there's what showed up this year with Elon. So my point is, there's all kinds of pockets of spending in all manner of ways. I think the question is, should Citizens United have allowed this kind of spending? And are we better off as a democracy for it. What does Chamath think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The reason why I would be in favor of going back to the way it was is that I think the biggest problem is the redistricting and the gerrymandering that happens and the amount of influence that happens downstream inside of state and local elections. There are just places that are just so sclerotically stuck.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you look at the federal, despite all the spending, you still see at the presidential level like pretty reasonable and healthy competition between two people. it's much more difficult to see dynamism lower and lower down ballot. And so the reason to get rid of Citizens United, from my perspective, is that you'd have much more vibrant local state mayoral elections.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Those things have huge impacts, I think, to quality.
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100%.
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Do you think that your money spending, if the balance of power to get your view was to- redistrict certain places so that then you could get a majority of people that were ideologically aligned to you elected. Would you do that as well? There's no ads running. This is about a different form of electoral influence. Would you do that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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How does that work?
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You get certain people elected by trucking people out to vote, and then you get that person to join a coalition that then redistricts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, yeah. I mean, to your point, Freeberg, you asked, like, how do you define it? What I'm trying to point out to you is for every dollar that goes into politics, I think it's... I would ask you guys to just suspend belief that 100% of that goes to ads. No, no, what I'm trying to say is... Yeah, I hear you. I would say a very small... Not a very small, 10 to 20 cents goes to ads.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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80% goes to all kinds of shady stuff. And there's also canvassing.
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That's in the 10 cent bucket. The 80 cents, what I'm trying to tell you explicitly is how it's spent today is not in the ways that you think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
I think the tactics today, look, I play with the conditions on the field, but if you look at them, meaning like using dollar incentives to incentivize people, that's allowed today. You can pay people to vote today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Somebody save some cows. Did you guys see this Instagram reel? My wife showed it to me. It's like of a calf chasing a dog. And it cuts to this Asian guy and he's like, what's the big deal here? What are we talking about? Like, you know, you want us to not eat everything, blah, blah, blah. And then he realizes that they're talking about the dog versus the cat. Don't trigger Freiburg. Don't do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Delete Freiburg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You see what I'm saying, though? It becomes really complicated. I just ran it through Grok, and what the answer was is that 56% of all the spending happens to be on ads, and 44% of all dollars in 24 or 25 was spent on other ads. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We got a bunch of tech. I want to talk about the market. Market's f***ed. Let's talk about CoreWeave.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'll give you a couple of factoids about Corbyn, which I find super impressive. So the first question is like, you would say, why didn't AWS, GCP, and Azure eat these guys for breakfast, lunch, and dinner? And as it turns out, they had one very specific technical decision that I think was extremely valuable, which is that these guys did not use hypervisors. Explain what that is.
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So a hypervisor is basically a middleware layer of software that allows you to abstract units of compute so that then you can make them available. And instead they basically allowed you to write to the bare metal and this very native approach that allowed them to get a lot of traction. So it's a really interesting thing to note that just that simple thing, like one simple technical design decision
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can allow you to build what looks like, at least from the revenue perspective, an incredible business, right? So kudos to them. Super awesome to see that you can still maneuver around the big giants. I think that that's cool. I think the big question with CoreWeave is, what is the period of amortization and the useful life of these GPUs from NVIDIA? And I think that that question is up in the air.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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As you said, Jason, a lot of their losses are these interest payments. And as long as that they have that calculated right in their models that they used to borrow all this money to buy all these GPUs from Nvidia, this is gonna be a killer business.
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To the extent that they got that calculation wrong, meaning we thought the useful life was 10 years, but it turned out to be five, this business is deeply underwater. So I think that that's the bet. The bet is they've built an amount of headway. They're going to continue to do this good technical engineering. But the other side of it is, is the useful life right? Is the technology curve right?
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Is Moore's law and all these other things, will they work in its favor or against it? And I think that's the decision.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, that explains the technical decision, because they have to have very low latency throughput in order to transact efficiently as commodities traders.
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They're killer for training. I mean, I think these guys crush in training.
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This service is incredible. What they do is when you're flying into an FBO, they meet you at the FBO and they take your watch and they set the new time for you. So especially if it's a mechanical watch, it's a very complicated movement. Oh, yes. This is very important. Right. You know what? I was flying to Malta. You've got to be kidding me that this exists. To Malta.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm just trolling.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, I think that there's three markets that are important. There's the US long end of the curve. So this is the 10-year bond yield. I think then there's the US equity market. And then the most next important market are the European bond and equity markets together. And I'll explain why in a second.
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But just on the first few, I mentioned this before, but I really do think we're in a secular shift where I think the MAGA majority... and the base of people that can be a reliable voting block in the future, as I've said before, are working in middle-class folks that don't necessarily own a ton of stocks, nor do they own homes, of which there's a lot.
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Second cohort are people that are pro-innovation and pro-tech. And the third are patriotic business owners. I think that cohort is very large. And I think that when... The core strategists inside of MAGA figure this out. One of the big takeaways is that they're not going to care about the stock market in Wall Street. and a lot of the policies will be viewed through the lens of Main Street.
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And I think that you started to see this rhetoric now, one from Besant, and we'll play this clip in a second, and the second was just today from Trump himself. But Nick, do you wanna play the Besant clip if you have it?
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That was the first one. The second one was just today, Nick, I sent it to you. Do you want to just show it to these guys, which I think is really interesting?
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I'm not sure I believe that, but okay. Why is this actually valuable? Well, if we are incentivized, if the government of America is incentivized to implement policies that crack the equity markets- it's actually really good in some ways. Number one is if you deflate asset prices, you also deflate inflation. Okay? Give an example there for the audience so we make it clear.
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NVIDIA is ripping at all-time highs. You are like, oh, wow, I'm so cash rich. You can go get a margin loan. You take that money. You reinvest it in a second home and a third home. You sell some stock. You start to buy cars, all this other stuff. It drives consumptive behavior that on the margin isn't there. the markets were much, much lower than this.
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So if you rebase the equity values that people have, what you do is you actually depress the amount of free cashflow that they have to spend on other things. So it's a deflationary tactic. How the bond market reacts to that is if the stock market goes down is you start to become a flight to quality, right? Oh my gosh, there's volatility in the stock market.
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Oh my gosh, I don't want to deal with the stock market going down. Let me just sell, take some chips off the table and buy 10-year bonds. When you buy the bonds, the interest rate goes down. Why is that good for America? We have $10 trillion we need to go out and borrow in the next nine months.
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And so if we can pay 3%, 3.8%, 4%, we save ourselves trillions of dollars versus if we had to pay 4.5%, 5%, 5.5%. So that's the second thing. And then the third thing is that right now, what we had this week because of the Ukraine and Zelensky thing is basically Trump say, we are totally risk off this war. And I'm not going to debate whether that's right or wrong, but that's what he said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, there's there's three things that are also kind of interwoven in all of this. OpenAI dropped GPT-4.5, and I think it was not really that well received. I didn't even know. Nobody's talking about that. Quen, which is the open source Alibaba, dropped a rev, which seems actually really best in class. So that was really interesting.
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We're going to curtail the aid. We're not even going to share intelligence. They're on their own. What did that force? What happened this week was the Europeans had to basically circle the wagons and they said, okay, we're going to step up. And what they announced was a four-year plan to borrow money to invest in defense.
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What they also did, which was really interesting, is the UK specifically said, we're going to borrow it in this clever little way, this is their interpretation, so that it doesn't actually count in the debt-to-GDP calculations of my country. So they're starting to play it. But then, so then how did the bond market react to it? Nick, you can show it.
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They're like, you know what, guys, if you want to fight this war... obviously you're allowed to do whatever you want, but the cost that you're going to have to pay is going to go up. This has been going up every day. And you're at a point now where this is severe fiscal pressure on these governments. I do not know how they sustain their deficits and raise more debt.
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So all of this is happening all at the same time. I think Trump is pro-mainstreet. Equity markets basically do not get bid. The bond markets respond positively. Yields go down. Good for America.
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They extract themselves from spending programs like, again, it's more than a spending program, but I'll just say it in this context, narrowly, Russia-Ukraine is a spending program that if you take off the table, that balance of responsibility goes to Europe. And then the markets are saying, this is not right. We want this war to end and we're going to make it more expensive for you to litigate it.
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If you put it all together, it's a really interesting moment in the markets I haven't seen in a very long time.
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It's easy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Then there was a story that said Lama is going sideways. Facebook's open source. And then the markets have just been going, I think, the craziest I've actually seen in 20 years of following the markets. And specifically, you're seeing the MAG-7 compressed towards the rest of the S&P 500. And then you're seeing this insane trade away from Europe. So there's a ton that happened this week.
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Well, I think the question is, when do these transnational organizations outlive their utility? That's the question on the table. And it's not just a question for NATO, but it's a question for a bunch of these other things, the WHO, NATO, the United Nations. There's many of these organizations. What you've seen is that there are
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competitive organizations now that are just as important, if not more. So if you didn't like OPEC, well, then there was this OPEC++ thing. If you didn't like how the Europeans and the Americans did intelligence gathering, then all of a sudden Five Eyes came out of nowhere. If you didn't like the G7, there's the BRICS, right? So there is this tendency for the world to create these startups
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to try to challenge incumbency as the conditions on the ground change. I think the most important thing right now the Europeans need to do is acknowledge this one critical fact. The individual governments of Europe are vibrant and powerful. The European Union itself was created almost without any real teeth. And so what happened is the folks there started to pass inordinate numbers of laws.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And that has made it really complicated to be a European company, a European citizen. And that has to get sorted out. What is the real decision there? Is it about being Italian? Is it about being European? What is the separation? And I don't think that that's clear. And I think once they figure that out, all this other stuff is much easier to figure out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So that also happened. Yeah.
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No, that's what he wrote in the tweet.
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Well, I use them in the company building context and specifically at 8090 because of what we're building. And what I would tell you is that I think Anthropic just continues to do an incredible job. I think Cloud37, it just kicks ass.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Oh, you're on Claude, you're using on the backend, yeah. We use it for a lot of automated code generation. Got it. And its models on code generation, I think, are just exceptional. They are the best in market. Then what I would say is as a consumer, I've mostly flipped my usage to Grok 3. Yeah. And the reason is that it's in line with where I consume most of my information.
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It's elegantly integrated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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There's a super elegant and I think there's a small tweak to this. Okay. that Elon and I were talking about actually on X, which is then just the nature of being able to analyze a post for its veracity becomes really valuable. That extra little thing when it's available, I think will have a really big impact on how people use it in this context. So I use Grok for the consumer applications.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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For all of our code generation, we're using Sonnet 3.7. It's exceptional. Which is Anthropix, which is doing a major round of funding. Got it. Okay. Yeah. And I think like the thing with the GPT-4-5 is that it's kind of like good. Now, here's a tangent. Let me just do a small little rant, which is
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We're at the bleeding edge of where these benchmarks are useful, meaning part of why, Jason, maybe you weren't necessarily watching this as closely, and I think where the media and the sense-making organizations get confused is they don't know now what to say because they'll say, hey, look at how I did on SweBench. Look at how I did on IMO. Look at how I did on AIME.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the problem, the dirty little secret of these model makers is that these guys are so trained on the evals that they're overfitting. And all this overfitting basically makes it pretty unreliable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, so we have one problem, which is that I think it would be very valuable for the industry that it be solved, which is that we need to have extremely difficult and always changing third-party independent verifiable benchmarks. Oh, that's a great idea. Number one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Less about safety, though, more about capability. Sure, sure. And I think if we're reporting on that, then these leaps will mean something more than what they are today, right? Got it. When Alibaba pushes Gwen this week, It was an exceptional model. It's probably one of the better open source, if not the best open source model out there. DeepSeeks, I think, is also quite good.
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It doesn't get any press anymore. So I think we're starting to get to this place where there's such abundance that actually people are just kind of like overwhelmed with all the choice and they don't know how to differentiate.
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Distribution becomes really important. I think that's why Grok inside of Hex is very valuable. But also, I think Google just said that they're going to drop an AI button right into the front door core search page. I don't know if you guys saw that.
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No, I'm on the Google front door, like google.com.
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Well, I mean, Google searches are still going. And Facebook is about to launch a competitor to ChatGPTG. A search engine. And Grok, yeah. Yeah, they're going to do a straight up. A standalone app. And the thing that they are so good at is whenever they launch an app, it doesn't matter when they launch it, they'll just get it to a billion people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I am coming. I'm securing the bag. You're not. There's only room for two. As long as I get the bag, I'll be outside.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
I've never been to a F1. Tell me which watch to get.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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What's a good starter watch for Jake Al? That's like an appetizer. That's what my watch has as a watch. God, your watch is watch.
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Get a good mechanical watch. Not an automatic, a mechanical.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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There's only one calculator that matters. Only one for me. Okay. HP 17B. There's only one calculator.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think that this is the first week where I've seen the first real schism in how people are interpreting what's actually happening. I think that Trump and Elon were very much in a honeymoon period until this week. And I think there was the benefit of the doubt. But what I saw on X was a real divergence where on the one hand, there were people that were basically saying, Doge is deranged.
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Elon is crazy. Trump is lighting the world on fire in one camp. And the other camp saying he's sticking to the plan. And when I thought about this a little bit, if you went back to November the 5th,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I do think it's important to remember that we were at this moment where you had this fork in the road and you had all these important issues where I think the best way to generalize it was that the Democrats believed that the lines should continue to be blurred.
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So whether that was on gender or race or merit versus some other immutable trait or fiscal and monetary policy, things were just getting more and more blurred. And then Trump and Elon basically showed up and said, actually, we want to refocus and we want to make the lines very visible and clear on all those dimensions. And a majority of Americans voted that in.
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But I think what you're starting to see now is the difficulty in actually implementing that plan. And what I mean specifically is tariffs are very nuanced and complicated. On the one hand, there's these short-term wins. There's these impacts. You could deem them positive or negative to the dollar. There's impacts to US bonds. There's impacts to US bond markets.
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There's impacts to how countries deal with foreign reserves. And then there's this impact that happens when the markets react to a tariff. And then Trump takes that off the table and then they snap back. So you have this weird set of boundary conditions right now. So I think right now we're in the very difficult part of sorting through what the long-term implications are.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I can get to some of them later, but I think that's where we are. I think that's really interesting. The goal of tariffs in your mind for Trump is fentanyl.
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Give me your definitive what you think this is about. I think what tariffs allow us to do is rebase the long-term reliance on the US dollar. It allows us to rebase our ability to fund our own deficits. And it allows us to rebase the long-term ability for American companies to be economically vibrant.
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DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Now, Antonio, one of the things about the data that you triggered, which, because the data is so important, frankly, is a lot of people started to try to find a way to nitpick and say, Antonio, you're cherry picking, or Antonio, this is not really representative. And you had some pretty big names, right?
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People that have credibility, Jim Chanos probably being one of the more prolific people, a very well-known hedge fund manager. But I think you tried to articulate why their objections didn't make any sense. I think it's important to maybe give you a few moments here to identify what they said and maybe debunk it.
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So just to be clear, this would have included somebody like me coming in on a TN visa or somebody on an EB1 visa.
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Antonio, how does it work? So when you volunteered... Is it that you and Elon and Steve just kind of figure out, let's put a senior person at every part of the administration where there's real opportunity? Why did you end up at SSA versus someplace else?
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Antonio, can you talk about what the next big push of effort from you and your team will be? Is there some next chart? I'm not trying to be reductive, but is there something that you can demonstrate that is going to be equivalently as powerful as this first chart, which then helps us start to move these gears towards doing the logical and right thing?
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I would add a fourth because I think that There is probably no more electric issue than this idea of voting impropriety. And I think it has become so brazenly partisan that everybody has suspended logic.
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If it turns out that there was a manipulated effort in 2020, and there is even a thread of legitimacy to Trump's claims, you would never be able to see the light of day because so many Americans just turn off, right? And that's because of the rhetoric that they've been fed.
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This is a really important thing that I would just offer to you is that if it is true that these people illegally voted, I think it's a thunderclap. And I think it opens wide the aperture on voting illegality and voting reform. And I think that irrespective of who you are, you should want to make sure that people who are not allowed to vote are not voting, just to put it simply.
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I am not partisan.
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It's impossible. Well, there's the key word. Here's what I would ask you to consider. Sure. Your results are only as good as your prompts. Your results are only as good as your prompts. Say it in plain English. What do you mean? I suspect that if you put three or four of the smartest data scientists in the world, they would get to a very different answer than the answer that has been arrived to.
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I don't know whether that'll validate or invalidate the claim, but the quality of the people that are able to interrogate this data is directly correlated to the output that is created.
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And so do you, Antonio, go in there with a Doge engineer as your kind of sidekick per se, or you just go there solo and you show up? What happens day one when you walk into the place? What do you do?
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What's your thought? Let me start by saying a couple things. To use the Donald Rumsfeld quote, I do agree with Ben tremendously that this was a known known. We mentioned this last episode. Donald Trump has been speaking about tariffs for 40 plus years. Yep. So this is not a new thing. And I think that he tried this in Trump one.
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But to your guys's point, it didn't really go well because he didn't have the team around him that had his back. And so it was inevitable that he would have tried it in Trump too. He said it, and he's been able to do it. So if you weren't planning for it, whoever was vested in this outcome, you really needed to be focused on this. It was a known known.
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And so there was a little dereliction of duty if you were caught off guard, I think. That's one. The second is, and we've said this all year since January 1 on this pod, we started it even with that polymarket bet that I made, which is the Trump administration does not care about the stock market. And by the way, the trade actually closed out.
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So congrats to all these people that won $650,000 on Polymarket.
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This was like the stock market giving out free money. But why did this happen? This happened because it was very clear to me early on that the rhetoric had shifted to say, we care about MAGA. We care about people that have working class interests. and middle-class jobs. None of those folks are deeply invested in the asset economy the way maybe some of us are. And so it was directionally clear.
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And by the way, Scott Besson, what a cold-ass quote yesterday. The equity market sell-off is a Mag7 problem, not a MAGA problem. So there again, putting all of this into the realm of this is a known known. So I think it's pretty clear. One, Trump has had a 40-year view on tariffs. They're gonna go through with this and they're gonna see it through.
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I don't think you're gonna see this grand capitulation. Two, they are okay with the volatility in the equity markets. And then three, which is the other thing that we've been talking about a lot is, where does this move our practical financing costs? What is this, right? We've talked about this. We have $6 trillion we need to finance in the next nine months.
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So the singular goal, in my opinion, of the White House has been move the tenure as aggressively and as quickly as possible. And look what they've done. As of yesterday, it's unbelievable what's happened in the tenure. You know, you are kissing 4%. And we talked about this.
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If it had gone in the other direction, guys, 30 or 40 basis points, and it touched 5%, you're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars of extra money that would not have been found, that would have had to be printed, right? And now this is hundreds of billions of dollars that we will save.
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The Fed doesn't control the back end of the curve.
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Governments will not auction 10 years, and the auctions will clear at around 4%. It is an enormous, like, as an American, What we should all be thinking is irrespective of what you think you know or what you think you like about tariffs, we should all have a moment where we exhale because the long end of the curve is giving us a respite in a storm. And we should be incredibly thankful.
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Okay, so let's play the ball where it lies. Okay. The Wall Street smart money thought this was a $250 billion event. They were wrong. This is part of why the stock market has reacted so violently today. This is a $750 billion to trillion dollar event. Okay, this is a big moment in the market. So what does it create? It creates the risk of a recession. How do you minimize that risk?
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That is all about how easy it is for the average person to be able to borrow money. Where is that dictated? That is more dictated by the Fed and how they price the front end of the curve. So what we need to have happen now is while Scott is out financing $6 trillion on the back end, We now need to get Jerome Powell to cut the front end.
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And if you do it aggressively enough, you can introduce liquidity in a moment where small and medium-sized businesses can go and get financed to weather the storm.
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Okay, so it's not all good news. Yes. So let's paint the – so I'll give a very specific example. A friend of ours runs a 100-plus-year company. I'm just going to say it in generic terms so that I don't betray his confidence. Sure, no problem. And this is a business that's been built over 100 years, owned by an American family, an incredible family, and they make products that we all know and love.
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And what did this action do? So in their example, they're in a very difficult position because they have, as David said, a very tight operating margin because they have to compete ferociously against China. And they've done everything possible to maintain their capabilities in America, hire American workers in the heartland, but still compete against China. It's tough.
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And this action today swings them from profitability to a potential yearly loss in a meaningful order of magnitude, like hundreds of millions of dollars. So Jason, that's the other side of this tariff coin.
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So we have to find a way of finding those examples, and as Ben said, excluding them somehow or giving them reprieve, because that wasn't the intention, I think, of what Trump was trying to do yesterday. That's an example of a company that should be winning. and should continue to win and fight the good fight against China and try to continue to employ thousands of Americans.
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But this thing, because they had some capacity in some other countries, not China, by the way, got it, blows the thing up. And so now you have to fix those things.
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I'll take the other side of all of this. Yeah. I'll start with, again, there's no point prognosticating when they're just telling you
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I mean, what is that just a kind of like refresher? What are we talking about? We're talking about commercial relations between, at the time, 44 countries, right? This is a big statement. I don't think that these kinds of things are said casually at a Manhattan Institute cocktail hour.
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And I think that people understand if you're kind of like steeped in the history of it, how important these kinds of statements are. So I think I take this similarly to how I take Trump's rhetoric on tariffs. And I'm spending some time trying to now understand how are the scenarios that could play out? Because I think David is right if you assume the status quo, meaning what are the risks?
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You can also get a Social Security number if you're a legal citizen. immigrant into the United States on a visa. So for example, when I first came to the United States 25 years ago on a TN visa, I was able to get my social security number because I had a valid visa to be in the United States.
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But what they're saying is, we're going to question this. We're actually going to go here and just totally rewrite that. If that happens as part of this scenario, All bets are off, in my opinion. I don't think any of us know with any certainty what a new economic framework would look like.
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And if Scott is basically prepping himself to say, hey, put me in, coach, I'm ready, I would take that seriously.
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Okay, so let's play conspiracy theorists for a second because, okay, you're right, Ben. Like, you want that clarity. I want that clarity. Freeburg wants it. J-Cal, everybody wants it. But if this moment, if it's a catalyst to your point where everybody is forced into the room and Trump leads a grand bargain across the 50 or 60 most important trading partners in the world, what does that look like?
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It's almost like, okay, we're reestablishing something that's akin to the United Nations and what the United Nations was meant to be post-World War II, but that institution has totally failed, so this new thing exists. purely on economic lines and cooperation.
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I don't know, I struggle actually, to your point, to kind of imagine what are the outcomes, but there's so many unbelievable outcomes in that scenario if they were able to get the top 50 commercial mercantile countries together in a room and say, let's hammer something up.
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Well, that's a great question. So what is that thing? What do you think that – that's a great question. I mean, AI comes to mind. Yeah, I mean –
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It's like they've made those investments... over the last five or six years. And so you have tens and hundreds of millions of dollars, billions of dollars of sunk costs. Now what do you do in that moment? Exactly.
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By the way.
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Did you watch the presser yesterday? The worst part for me, I only had one moment where I was like, oh gosh, he stopped on Sri Lanka.
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No, no, wait, what are you guys talking about?
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By the way, I think that Ben's framing of this, thank you for that, because that was really helpful to me. You're right. If we try to reconvene a new Bretton Woods, we have to have an anchor asset. So it's a really great question. What is that anchor asset? It has to be AI. But then, you know, underneath that AI thing, we have these two very complicated problems.
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One is a meaningful energy problem. I've been talking about this now incessantly. We don't have enough electrons. We just don't. And then the second is what Friedberg mentioned before, which is that we have a very delicate technological supply chain to make the underlying silicon we need for these things. Neither are trivial. These are not things that can be easily solved.
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The worst thing about...
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I said this before, but one of the biggest national security threats that we created out of nowhere was when the Wall Street Journal was allowed to do a detailed article on ASML. And one of the craziest and scariest stats is that there's a person, literally one person, that can operate these machines that are trained by ASML and then forward deployed. And there was a woman that was profiled
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And I thought, this is a national security risk. You should not be outing who this woman is.
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Exactly.
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The greatest way to keep a buyer for our currency. There's an analog to this that I think is important. Like when you look at the debt to GDP of Japan, one of the critical questions is how can you have a functioning economy at 250, 260% debt to GDP, right? And we're at sort of like 110s, right? 120 something, whatever.
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And one of the critical advantages that they have is that they export a lot of incredible goods abroad, but they have an incredibly deep domestic pool of buyers for their own Japanese bonds. And so there's this permanent bid that exists because the net buyer can be a Japanese person on the margins, and they're always there. And it's not necessarily a person. It's an insurance company.
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It's a pension fund, et cetera. Thank you. Thank you.
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Thank you.
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Thank you.
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Thank you.
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NERC put out a study, just like this is very tactical, but it's part and parcel of what you and Jason are talking about. Do you guys know that about 25% of all of our utility workers in America became eligible for retirement between 2017 and 2022? I did not, no. So most of the people, 56% of all utility workers now have less than a decade of experience. You know what that's resulted in?
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In 2021, the average US customer of an electric utility experienced seven and a half hours of service interruptions, and it's just growing.
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Newark says that 19 states now in the United States can face rolling blackouts during normal peak conditions if these issues aren't addressed. And by the way, that's a human capital problem.
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But if you multiply that by 10 and 20 and 30 times, there was a different tweet, I don't know, Nick, if you could find it, that talked about an organization trying to find people to help build nuclear submarines. Did you guys see this quote? where they needed 100,000 people to build nuclear subs in the United States, and they could barely find like a few hundred
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Well, I actually think it's fun because we're going to kick off a different Polymarket around this because I think it's interesting. So the thing that we haven't talked about is with all of the tariffs,
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with all of the financing questions, with all of the recession questions, short-term rates, long-term rates, the one thing that we haven't sufficiently talked about, it's not really in the press, but it needs to be talked about, is there is a tremendous amount of corporate debt that supports these businesses today. And you would say, well, if long-term rates go down, there's no real risk
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but the tariff picture actually impacts revenues, right? And the problem with that is that there's a lot of companies that have debt covenants tied to revenue and EBITDA. And so this is what I spoke about at the beginning of January, which is the one risk that is uncontrollable is what happens to corporate debt? And could we see a wave of defaults and a wave of action?
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All right, here we go. What do you got, Jamal? So let me preface this by saying that this is a pick that 92 times out of 100 goes to absolute zero. And six out of the remaining eight times, you make 10 extra money. And then the final two times, you make anywhere between 100 to 1,000 extra money. This is a loser trade. But I would be long CDS. So what am I buying? I am buying insurance.
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I'm buying insurance using credit default swaps. I'm buying what's called protection, that there is no default event in 2025. I would like a little bit of an insurance policy in 2025. so that the men and the women that we have voted in have the chance to do their work in peace. I think that there is a small chance of some volatility next year. I hope it doesn't happen.
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I hope that this trade loses money. But if it hits, it will be the best performing asset of 2025. And I just want to be clear, this is not something I think will happen. It's not something I want to happen.
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But I do think that if you look back in terms of just the tonnage of dollars you can make and the massive risk asymmetry that it presents to you, when you look at the concentration of the S&P, when you look at just the total gross amount of debt that we have, when you look at rates spiking, all of these things say having a little insurance may not be a bad thing. It has hit.
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Nick, you can show the CDS graph. So this thing, for every billion dollars of risk you would have put on, every billion dollars that you put on would have cost you about a million dollars. And that million dollars would have made you about $7 million in about three months. Did you put it on? I'm not going to comment on my trades, Jason. Oh, okay. But we talked about it off air already.
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No, but there may be some boats for sale if this trade keeps going this way. Why is this important? The CDS actually represents the structural risk in the United States private economy, in the corporate economy. And so, Nick, if you just put it back on. So when you see these spreads blowing out, this is actually a very important warning sign.
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And this is actually a thing that I think Scott understands well, Howard understands well. I think they'll translate this to the president. If I have an opportunity to explain it, I will, but this is a really important market to pay attention to. This is what was the canary in the coal mine for the great financial crisis.
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This was the stuff that showed us that there was a big default event happening in the mortgage side of the market, but then that spilled over to the broader economy. And so the tariff picture and the recession picture will get played out in this chart. And I think it's something that folks can and should probably pay tremendous attention to.
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Because I think now that this trade is in the money, the question is, I don't think we want this to happen. That one sigma, two sigma event where all of a sudden this trade returns 1,000x is really bad.
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Ben Shapiro's table. We're going to live. We're going to live. We're going to live. Stop with the 11 stuff. Okay, sorry, sorry. Come hang out.
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Some restructuring going on. Actually, Ben, now that you saw what's happening with Newsmax, I mean, any thoughts to maybe raising some capital?
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Congratulations. But actually, Ben, what do you think when you see this Newsmax thing trade like this? I mean, it's incredible. What is it saying, do you think?
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$240.
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Yeah, or two days ago.
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Good. I will hope this is discoverable. White House. I just want you to know that. Stupid. Also, he did not pay his taxes in 2016.
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Let's just take one step back because I just want you to repeat this. Because I think it's important and we may have just run over it a little too quickly. When you get a social security number, what you're saying is there's all of these important downstream consequences.
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One of the downstream consequences is you could show up, register to vote, and that's an illegitimate action that's breaking federal law. That's one. But the second is that without knowing who this person is, they can start to absorb resources that could have otherwise gone to an American. I guess that's like a fundamental part of this. And so how do you quantify that?
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Can you just maybe explain it a little bit more about all of the different ways in which you think now the United States ends up leaking services to these folks? Yeah.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
It's going to be the Miriam Adelsons of the world, the Elon Musks of the world. And that's very different than how I think the Kochs used to decide things. Do you think there's too much money in politics now, Gavin?
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It feels like it's blurry.
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I think the biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be dollar-denominated stablecoins. I'll make two points. In 2024, two critical things happened. The first is that stablecoins essentially became uncoupled from crypto volatility, and it started to be used for wholesale useful functions in running businesses. And there's an image here that starts to show that.
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So independent of crypto volatility, what you saw were stable coin usage just rising up and to the right. That's an incredibly important decoupling that happened in 2024. The second, and this data is still just trickling in, but it's an incredible stat. Stablecoin usage at the end of the second quarter of 2024 was about 1.1 billion transactions that summed to $8.5 trillion of transaction volume.
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If you compare that to Visa, over the same period, it was more than double Visa's transaction volume. So I think what we have now is something that has fundamentally crossed point of no return. Similar to how last year I thought that the big trend was going to be Bitcoin in 2024, I would say that the big trend in 2025 is stablecoin usage.
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No, no. This is a shout out to my friend, Ruben Ostlund, who's the director of a bunch of really amazing movies, including the one behind me, Force Measure. There you go.
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I think we're going to finally attack the duopoly of Visa and MasterCard. I think you're going to see an innumerable number of use cases that sit and use stablecoin rails. I think when Donald Trump becomes president, I think you're going to see him go after incredibly high credit card transactions and costs. You're already seeing cracks in consumer credit anyways, because of these high APRs.
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All of this stuff is going to come to a head in 2025, I think, and I think stablecoins could quadruple or quintuple by the end of 25. I think it's just going to be an enormous market.
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I don't think I'm qualified to say how it should, but I think the point is that there are these immutable logs that sit in between and on either side of all of these transactions. And so I think the knowledge is there and there are a whole bunch of third party services that add that intelligence layer. I think the thing to really question is if you just took 300 basis points of drag and
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out of the global economy, how valuable would that be? And I think it would be valuable just in the United States alone to the tune of a trillion dollars. So the idea that you wouldn't do it at this point is somewhat quizzical to me. So I just think that the economic justification for this now is just so profound.
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Jeremy Allaire, I mentioned, by the way, that I had this small little product that I exposed to the world, which is just our research. And we sit it on top of Substack. Again, the tools aren't very good. And we use Stripe. And Jeremy reached out to me and he's like, I'll just rebuild all of your payment rails on using US dollar stable coins.
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And it's a no brainer because I'm spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in transaction costs that now I can just save and use to hire somebody else or just pay the team more.
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I think you're totally right. The reason I said that last year was it was pretty clear to me at the time, and the NBA was the canary in the coal mine, that there was a viewership problem in professional sports. And specifically in the NBA, the game has devolved into essentially rebounds and dunks or three-pointers.
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And the issue with that is that it becomes just meaningfully less interesting to watch. At the same time, because of the fact that the TV deals are really what determines the discounted value of these sports franchises, the TV deal was so enormous that it creates no
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reliable rivalries anymore because people will hopscotch teams almost every year because the compensation that they can get is just so obscene, quite honestly. And I think what happens is sports will have a decent run until the next TV deals get done.
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And I think if you, for example, take pharma ads outside of TV, so like that pool shrinks, if you have less viewership, and so you can sell the remaining ads less effectively because there's just fewer of them and then there's fewer buyers and it shrinks yet again. then the dollar pool that the television networks and the streamers are going to be willing to pay for sports will go down.
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And the group that will be the most price sensitive are exactly who you said, Gavin, meaning the non-trophy buyers. So when I bought into the Warriors, I bought it purely as a trophy asset, and I was price insensitive. But I agree with you that now that you have the PE firms on the cap tables of these sports franchises, Those folks are all DCFs. Those folks are all Excel models.
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I don't think that they're buying things for emotion. I don't think they've grown up thinking, I want to own this thing, not using institutional LP dollars. So I just think that's why I said that in 24.
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I got a call. I got a call. I think it was from the Warriors or it's from the NBA. Something to the effect of, this guy that was sitting in your seats was almost kicked out. And I said, excuse me? Because I knew it. It was the Knicks game, in fairness. And he was like jawboning our own players.
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It was unbelievable.
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Bogut told him to basically go pound sand. He basically did.
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He's one of our good friends. So that's why it's so funny.
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Gavin wanted to make a point about what I just said.
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precarious, but I don't know what the percentage drawdown from here will be. But I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the Mag7 will be in the trillions of dollars. And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I made a very strategic decision to stop snowboarding so I could learn to ski with my kids. It is so hard to learn how to do something in your 40s. No, I mean, if you've never done it. But I do appreciate what you and your brother did for me last season. I learned a couple things. Yeah, you were out there with the Black Bomber. My third season was great.
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But I am a little bit worried, and I tweeted this a few days ago, about just the general concentration of the top seven, eight, nine, 10 companies in the indices. I think it's approaching 40%. And I think that when you look at these historic concentrations, they've generally foreshadowed a big drawdown. And unfortunately, I don't see how you can sort of inoculate yourself from that risk.
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So independent of the quality of these companies, because I think these companies are exceptional businesses, I do think you've just had too much concentration. And I think it is a setup to retrade and give back. And in that, it could even be 10%. But 10% in the MAG-8 will be a couple trillion bucks. And so on an absolute dollar basis. One or two percent would be a lot.
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Would you guys add, just a question, would you guys add the traditional consulting companies then to the mix as well?
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That's a great one. Yeah, we think what we talked about with DeepLight. Like the Wipros, the Tatas, the HCLs, the Accentures.
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Cognizance, the EMYs, all these folks that are in real trouble if that also happens. That's right. Yeah.
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The thing to keep in mind is like cost plus is a fancier way of saying time and materials. And time and materials is a fancy way of saying human labor arbitrage. And I think that all of that stuff will get extremely scrutinized in 2025. Because if you are buying $800 wastebaskets and $9,000 umbrella hangers because of time and materials and all of this other
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crazy stuff that's in the system, and all of that gets washed out, then a lot of these folks and their business models will get put under severe stress.
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That hasn't happened yet. Totally riffed on that one. I think that this is the year that we will see the collapse of the traditional auto OEMs. And I think that the The deal that happened at the end of 2024 with Honda, Nissan, I think is a bit of a signal to what the industry has to do, which is to go through a massive wave of consolidation.
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I think that Tesla is just in an incredible position with the quality of their vehicles and the quality of their software and the quality of their autonomy with FSD. So I suspect that after a couple of more meaningful product releases, it's just going to trigger the realization by the public capital markets that these auto OEMs are uninvestable.
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And I think the result of that will be a wave of auto mega mergers.
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Yeah, that's the way to do it. Same, same, same. End at 12.15, have lunch, relax.
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But I think this is going to touch like the European OEMs are in real trouble. You know, what does Volkswagen do? It's not clear. What does Stellantis do? It's not clear. These are all businesses that are effectively melting icebergs. And so, you know, typically melting iceberg businesses, when they get put under pressure from smart investors like Gavin and his ilk, they're forced to merge.
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It's just the cost of capital. Are you short these, Gavin?
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Jason, would you like to announce you bought the domain?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Gavin, do you have any idea what word he's even saying when he says that? Disgraciad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
You own the domain? You don't even know?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Did you see this thing where, is it Logan Paul is fighting Conor McGregor in India and Conor McGregor is going to get $250 million? What? What? Yeah. It's like a whole tourist thing. Is it boxing or is it MMA? PR stunt. I think it's boxing and it's meant to sort of like bring a bunch of tourists into India to show them the country. But it's a quarter of a billion dollars to Conor McGregor.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
How do we get in on this grift?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
What do you mean we didn't get there? Independent centrists won the election for Megan.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think that you're going to see a banking crisis in one of the major mainline banks.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Black Swan? Well, I think if I had to kind of build the... the case for this, it would be along the following lines. If you added up the total indebtedness of Pax America, which is US government debt, plus corporates, plus mortgage debt, and you actually sensitize it to rates that are around, call it 5%.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
what you quickly realize is on a dollar basis, that because the amount of debt that we have has just massively exploded, that 5% rates today on 70 odd trillion dollars is actually equivalent to 10% rates 25 or 30 years ago, because we only had a fraction of that debt on a dollar basis.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah. Okay. I didn't think that it was the independents, but okay. I think independent centrists swung the election for Biden in 2020. And then I think they swung the election for Trump in 2024.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And so the pain that you feel at 5% or 6% can very quickly ripple through the economy the way that it did when rates 25 or 30 years ago were 10%. And so I think that when people look at rates, they forget the actual total dollar impact. Because when somebody, or collectively, when we have to come up with $3 or $4 trillion, how do you do that? And so I think that there is a non-trivial risk.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think it's small. This is why it's contrarian. But I think it's a risk where if you have a mark-to-market problem, if you have a credit default problem amongst the corporates or amongst enough individual consumers, what I think that happens more than anything else is that it triggers a reserve issue.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think that the reserve issue in one of these mainline banks, I have two that I think are more obvious than others, but I don't want to name them. Okay. Fair enough. I love this contrarian take. This is great.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah. Okay. Shabbat, who's your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025? My biggest political winner for 2025 are fiscal conservatives. I think that we are going to test a very important concept in 2025. And I hope it works, which is that of austerity. And the reason why austerity has to work is that the only thing left after austerity is to cut entitlements.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
What is the contrarian part of what you guys are saying? What's the contrarian part?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Socialism on the rise.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think that in doing this, we're going to figure out how much waste, fraud, and abuse exists in the United States federal government. I think that that's going to spill over to a lot of state elections. And I think that the fiscal conservatives that have been clamoring for a more restrained approach to spending will have their day in 2025.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Good pick. Great pick, in fact. What do you got, Shema? So let me preface this by saying that this is a pick that 92 times out of 100 goes to absolute zero. Okay. And six out of the remaining eight times, you make 10 extra money. And then the final two times, you make anywhere between 100 to 1,000 extra money. Okay. Sounds like big money. Okay. So this is a loser trade, okay?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But I would be long CDS. So what am I buying? I am buying insurance. I'm buying insurance... using credit default swaps, I'm buying what's called protection, that there is no default event in 2025.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Again, I'm not going to tell you which companies or what maturities, but just the general idea for me is I would like a little bit of an insurance policy in 2025 so that the men and the women that we have voted in have the chance to do their work in peace I think that there is a small chance of some volatility next year. I hope it doesn't happen.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I hope that this trade, like I said, 92 times out of 100 loses money. I hope it loses money. But if it hits, it will be the best performing asset of 2025. It will be the equivalent of Ackman buying CDS right at the beginning of the COVID crisis. How does one buy those? You have to have an ISDA. You talk to the big investment banks and they'll price it out for you.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But again, and I just want to be clear, this is not something I think will happen. It's not something I want to happen.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But I do think that if you look back in terms of just the tonnage of dollars you can make and the massive risk asymmetry that it presents to you, when you look at the concentration of the S&P, when you look at just the total gross amount of debt that we have, when you look at rates spiking, all of these things say having a little insurance may not be a bad thing. I hope I'm completely wrong.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think Gavin just absolutely nailed it. I'm going to double down on what he said. I think that there's a term that we will start to use more. I started to use it internally at 8090 over this last year in 2024, which is the software industrial complex. These are these large
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
bloated in many cases, enterprise software companies that effectively have convinced incredible numbers of organizations to spend a tremendous amount of money, essentially wrapping a bunch of heuristics and business rules around a CRUD database. And along with that, what they have perfected really is a go-to-market and sales motion.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
The golf trips, the steak dinners, we mentioned this before, what Alex Karp railed against None of those things equate to product value. And increasingly in the world of agentic software and AI, I think that you can rebuild a lot of these workflows in very efficient ways.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think the go-to-market is going to be driven by CEOs and CFOs who start to exert a little bit more pressure on their CIOs to manage spend. And in that world, I just think that these next generation AI businesses are built, frankly, an order of magnitude cheaper than the companies that they compete against.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And so even if it's just feature for feature the same, I think the software industrial complex, these old mainline traditional enterprise software companies I think you're going to start to see fissures in those businesses in 2025. So I agree with Gavin. Different words, but same result.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And the traction in less than a year, to me, is shocking. And I don't think it speaks necessarily. I think we're decent. We're very good. We have great engineers. But my 30-person engineering team, I think, does the work of 300 people. By next year, it'll be doing the work of 3,000 people. Maybe it will only grow by 10% or 20%. And the reason is we use these tools.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
We're productive to an order of magnitude that I didn't think was possible. And as a result, we're just able to price it differently. So even if it's the exact same product, its cost structure is just meaningfully lower. And so this is what I mean where the ROI calculators get blown up. All of the traditional go-to-market motions get blown up because in an RFP or in any other sales
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
environment, what you do is somebody says it's $100 and you show up and you say, 10. Okay. And at 10, it's still hugely profitable for you.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think that there are a handful of, not to overuse an overused term, but canaries in the coal mine for the end of the deep state. And I would like to point to one, which is this obscure thing called the supplemental loss ratio. And essentially what it is, is a mechanism that the banks can use to include or not include treasuries and how they calculate reserves, et cetera, et cetera.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Now, why is this an interesting thing? It's not interesting for many people. It's very arcane. But if we are unable to manage the debt situation in 2025, I think what you're going to see is maneuvering at the edges of these arcane regulations that effectively kick the can down the road. And there is a chance that that could happen to help the banks because we believe that
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
we meaning collectively America, that maybe Doge won't be as effective as it needs to be, that there's still going to need to be $10, $20 trillion of debt issuance to refinance the 10 that's maturing this year and to plug holes in the coming years. My point in all of this is we don't need to understand the details except that if we don't move the goalposts here, it is a great sign that
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
the folks that are running the show are the ones that we all elected. Okay. So that is my most anticipated trend. Small, arcane, regulatory changes that allow us to kick the can down the road, stop in its tracks. This is an example. Okay, Freeberg, you got a most anticipated trend for 2025?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
of the files that are going to get declassified and released by the Trump administration. I think it's going to be unbelievably interesting, salacious, useful, good, earnest All of the above. So the JFK files, the Epstein files, the Diddy files. The moon landing.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Who knows what they find across all of these other fringe, quote unquote, conspiracy theories that may turn out to actually have some shred of truth. But all of that, let's call it content, for lack of a better word, that gets released in 2025 by the Trump administration, I think will be incredibly interesting.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
What was our predictions for this last year?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Jimmy's show on Amazon Prime, the Mr. Beast thing, was the top unscripted drama in 140 of 180 countries.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah. Chamath, do you have a prediction market you want to put up? The Magate representation in the S&P 500 shrinks below...
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I don't know that we can make a polymarket out of it. Gavin, are there documents that you think Trump will release about the past in terms of UFOs? There must be just an entire spectrum of stuff that could be subject to FOIA if we went after it, no?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But look, let's be honest. You think that there are docs. Like there's documentation that the U.S. government has that there are UFOs, that there have been. We just can't explain it.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Wait, one last question for Gavin.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Do you think extraterrestrial life built the pyramids? Is that the most plausible explanation to the accuracy?
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Conspiracy Gavin is awesome. I love him. Jason, if you're a questioning person, these things create these weird, open loops that it's hard to close in your mind.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Anyway, Freiburg's got to drive back.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Let's get it. Take care.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
The biggest political loser of 2025 is going to be progressivism. So November of last year, right after the election, I flew to London and went up to Oxford and I spoke at the Oxford Union. And my speech was a full-throated defense of MAGA. but it was mostly an explanation of manga.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And it was sort of the antidote to progressive instincts that had been riddling the Western G8 countries and was starting to basically come on young. And when you look at what's about to happen in 2025, in Canada, Justin Trudeau is going to lose massively to Pierre Polyev. In Germany, AFD looks like they will win.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
In France, if there's a deadlock and it goes into an election, more than likely Marine Le Pen is going to win. And then in the UK, where you see this unfolding child rape scandal, where allegedly upwards of hundreds of thousands of young girls over the course of 20 plus years were being raped by organizations of Pakistani Muslim men who were then not prosecuted,
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
for fears of stoking Islamophobia, as it turns out, by the current Prime Minister Keir Starmer. And if all of that comes to pass in the UK, I think you're gonna see the Labour government fall, and I think you're gonna see Nigel Farage win. So what do all of these countries look like by the end of 25? It's very much a repudiation of this class-based identity politics.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think that has enormous ripple effects all throughout the world. And so I think the biggest political loser for 2025, I think, stands to be progressivism, quote unquote, what we labeled progressivism.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I nailed that one.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Who lost on the Republican side more than the Koch family, do you think? I mean, explain for the audience who maybe aren't as deep into it. Well, I think essentially 2024 was the end of the Republican Party as we knew it.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think what stands in its place is what I would call the MAGA reflection of a coalition of people that will be housed under the label of republicanism, which is to say that these folks aren't necessarily Republicans. These folks are believers of the MAGA philosophy. They're just using the Republican vessel in order to run their candidates and get elected.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And in that overturning of the status quo, what you had was this one family who was at the center for the last few decades of political machinery that essentially decided candidates, that it decided agenda, that it decided policy, and that was the Koch family. And they spent an enormous amount of money
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
to get that, which they stood up, frankly, literally the day after Citizens United happened in the Supreme Court. And I think that in that lens, those billions of dollars of investment have essentially gone to zero because I don't think it means much of anything anymore. And if you look at the new class of donors who will decide quote unquote, Republican policy.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
But see, in this example, what you're seeing are the two robots basically figuring out how to communicate semantically between the robots. And that's incredibly powerful. And it's yet another sort of breakthrough that we need. So I don't know, we're probably like a couple years away, but see, look at the dexterity there.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
He's taking the Pepperidge Farms and feels like he's crushing the Pepperidge Farms or she or whatever you call this robot. They, then. Please don't misgender the robot. But it's really incredible. They're figuring, the coolest part of this demo, by the way, which I loved was they take an apple and then the second robot figures out that it should go in the fruit bowl.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
pushes the fruit bowl to the first robot and then the first robot. Oh, that's cool. There it is. But that level of semantic awareness and understanding between two models working dependently is very cool. Look at that. That's very cool.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Before you came into office, I requested the full and complete files related to Jeffrey Epstein. In response to this request, I received approximately 200 pages of documents. Late yesterday, I learned from a source that the FBI field office in New York was in possession of thousands of pages of documents related to the investigation and indictment of Epstein.
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You need a lot of rare earths to make robots.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Tootsweet, morels. Let's talk about Stripe. I thought the report was really good.
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I thought there was three takeaways. The first takeaway for me was the value of Stripe's ecosystem is probably underappreciated. I think Patrick mentioned it, but he just kind of said it as a passing fact and none of us picked up on it. But in the report, they talk about all the additional products that they're able to build around core payments. And one of them is the billing product.
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It's half a billion dollars a year of ARR. That's just incredible. And I think if they figure out network effects inside of the Stripe ecosystem, that's interesting. So that's first, which is the hub and spoke of payments being at the center of all of these other incremental services. I think that that's really interesting and underappreciated for Stripe.
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That probably speaks to why there's such a difference in valuation because Adyen has less of that ecosystem, or at least it's not nearly as well described maybe as Stripe's. That's number one. Second is, I go back to what I've been saying for a while now, but the rise of these stablecoins is really interesting.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Despite my repeated requests, the FBI never disclosed the existence of these files. When you and I spoke yesterday, you were just as surprised as I was to learn this new information. By 8 a.m. tomorrow, February 28th, the FBI will deliver the full and complete Epstein files to my office, regardless of how such information was obtained.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
The stablecoin infrastructure globally, the push for a bunch of these national governments to embrace them inside of India, inside of Brazil, slowly it's happening inside of the United States. So I think that that was really interesting. And then the third takeaway, Nick, I sent you this tweet, was just the nature of the AI ecosystem relative to the rest of SaaS.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
And what this is was from Stripe's report, which showed the time to get to 5 million of annualized revenue. And the average SaaS company took 37 months. And by 2024, the top 100 AI companies got there in 24 months.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
I think it's really clear. I mean, I can give you a little factoid from 8090. You know, we got to 5 million of revenue in three months. Really crazy.
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Yeah. And so it's just a very different selling motion than I've historically seen, where The ROI is just so obvious in terms of the efficiency that it creates and the cost savings you can generate relative to traditional enterprise software. It's a more straightforward sale. The ROI is clearer. The revenue is bigger. It happens faster. Yeah.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
I'll be honest with you, at least with the our 8090 customers, I haven't seen that yet. You know, we're in, I don't know, eight or nine segments of the economy, big segments of the economy. it's more still about the frustration that they have with what I would call the software industrial complex.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
There's a big, and you can see it with what's happening to Salesforce and other big companies is that these renewal cycles are getting harder and harder to justify. And so people are willing to take some bets and see if there are different ways in dealing with this problem. And I think that's the real opportunity is if you can find a repeatable pattern
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
to help these companies replace that big software spend that they have. That scales really quickly. And the only way to do that really is using AI in two ways. AI inside the machinery of what you're using yourself to make the things, right? So those are things like cursor and whatnot to just fully accelerate. And then AI within some very specific products that the customers actually need
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
that also create efficiency. So there's two different places. But the problem with using it in both of these two different places is in the first one, you can manage the errors. It's very straightforward. At the end of the day, code either compiles or it doesn't.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
So even if you're using something like Cursor, which is an incredible product, there are no errors at the end of it because the thing actually works or it doesn't. The problem is actually when you use these models in actual work. And if you're in a regulated environment, particularly, it gets very complicated because if you generate a hallucination,
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
in a healthcare business and it causes a patient record to be incorrect, there are huge consequences there. And that we haven't solved yet. That exists in regulated finance. It exists when you're dealing with real estate and construction. It exists when you're dealing with power. It exists in aerospace. Imagine if an LLM helps you design a plane better.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
I think that their takes on society and culture are pretty interesting, I think. Do you think it will work in our format?
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
There will be no withholding or limitations to my or your access. My question to you guys is, do you think that this is much ado about nothing and that the FBI needs to have the discretion to be able to say no? Or do you think this is one of these things where you're not allowed to do what they're doing?
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
But if there's a tolerance error and that's not well understood, that could have horrific consequences downstream. So we're working with all these people to try to figure it out. It's a very difficult technical challenge. But I just thought the Stripe data was really interesting because it validates what we're seeing, which is the growth in this industry.
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It's not like anything I've ever seen before.
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Yeah, and I think the best way for Stripe to actually do this is just to build it and to actually facilitate payments between existing Stripe customers. Because again, it's sort of what I said last week. These are all ultimately ledger entries. And I think that the more that you can commoditize these things to be a simple ledger entry inside of two systems of record at two companies,
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That's a much better product feature. I think Stripe has the scale to do that now. And to your point, they could have an enormous stablecoin business. At the same time, they're probably better off just embracing what's already been built. It may be disruptive to try to launch yet another one. I don't know.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
I tend to be sort of in the Stevie Cohen camp. It's not like the bottom is going to fall out, but there's like a lot of room for concern, I guess is the best way to put it. Nick, I don't know if you can find that clip at FII, but he had a very precise summary of how he saw the world. And I frankly just agreed with everything that he was saying. So he probably can say it better than I.
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Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
I think a couple of very specific thoughts. The first is that you're starting to see this compression of the MAG-7 towards everybody else. So this is the forward PE of these guys. And so what you're starting to see is everybody else starting to capture back some of the ground. People are processing what the real upside of the MAG-7 is.
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Now, if you go to the other chart, what this starts to show you though, is that MAG-7 is really priced to perfection. And so you have to believe that the world kind of stays the way that it is. Otherwise, you're going to have some amount of mean reversion. So I think the stock market on the margin is a little expensive and not particularly that attractive.
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Second, the bond market has basically said, okay, we are going to give you credit that Doge is going to work and that tariffs are going to work. We've had some pretty meaningful compression in the 10-year, which I think is really interesting. I think it's very good for Besant and for Trump. I think I've mentioned this before, but we got to go in and refinance $10 trillion in the next six months.
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You could see this thing maybe even get under 4% if we get a good string of data. The real problem, I think, though, is that if you look back and say, what does this look like? The example that I would give you guys is in 2010 in the United Kingdom, the deficit as a percentage of GDP was 10%. And the UK government embarked on a multi-year austerity plan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And they said, we're going to get the deficit as a percentage of GDP back in line. And ultimately, by 2016, it got to 3%, which is where we are trying to get to. And right now, we're a little bit under 7%. We're trying to get it to 3%. So it's interesting to ask what happened. And there, the bond market gave the UK government a ton of credit.
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This doesn't say, let's negotiate what we should release together so that we protect people. This says, we're just going to lie to you and tell you that here's this protection.
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So they kept rates relatively low and they brought them back from where they were. That seems like what's happening here. The stock market kind of went sideways to a little bit down. Let's see what happens here. But the real big thing is in the UK, all of this created tremendous dissatisfaction and you had Brexit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I think the question that I have is, if we go through a prolonged austerity program, And the frustration amongst the American populace builds, what's the release valve? There, the release valve was voting to leave the EU. Here, it's not obvious to me what a release valve is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, I think he is the mechanism of implementing the austerity. I think people want this austerity. Just the question is, what happens when the actual byproducts of that austerity are felt by people for six or seven years? I don't know what the answer is.
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We've never done it. I think the quality of the show is best when it's less just people doing takes and it's more the back and forth banter. So yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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the chain of command requests something, are you allowed to withhold it? Because you decide in your own judgment that The person above you doesn't deserve to know it. I think that's an important question.
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I think you have to figure out what the goal is. So one goal is you could say that the Republicans want to have consistent political power, right? That's a reasonable goal. The Democrats want that too, right? A different goal would be to do what Friedberg said. We're going to go and take the lumps because we are going to defend the dollar and the credibility of the United States.
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We're just going to make sure that structurally it's sound and take the pain that's necessary to reset. That could be a goal. I think the reality is something in the middle where you can't be in one camp and you can't be in the other because I don't think you can get anything done.
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And somewhere in the middle, I think the thing that I have been thinking a lot about is when will somebody sniff out what the great coalition is that preserves political power, whether that's the Democrats or the Republicans. The reality is that you will have a consistent majority if you get three cohorts of people together.
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Cohort number one are the people that, frankly, don't have many assets and are the working and middle class, meaning they don't necessarily own homes. They don't necessarily have investments in the stock market, so they don't particularly care about what's happening there. That cohort dominates.
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discussion at Harvard just this past week about the different political coalitions that voted for Trump versus Kamala Harris, the most important takeaway that I took from it is that if you make $100,000 or more a year, you're a reliable Democratic voter. If you went to college, you're a reliable Democratic voter. Everything else is a reliable Republican voter.
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But the thing to remember is that bucket of everything else is growing faster than that first bucket. So you have this coalition of the asset light working in middle class, and then you have other people, patriotic business people and patriotic business owners and technology people that care about innovation that MAGA has been able to corral into a coalition.
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My point is, if that is the consistent, reliable thing that cements political power multiple elections from now, and we've seen this before in the past where Republicans can go on a three-term run or a four-term run, Democrats have as well in the past, it is bad news for the stock market. And it is bad news for asset owners because it doesn't reward the constituents. Back to Freebrook's point.
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So if you are going to feed your constituents and your constituents don't own stocks, it's and your constituents don't own homes, or they are so wealthy that they can be inoculated from a massive drawdown in those asset categories, what do you think the winning strategy is? That is my rough working version of what our version of Brexit is.
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If you have many, many years of austerity, what does it really result in? I think if you want to cement political power, I think it requires a walking down of these asset markets in a meaningful way. That's stocks and that's real estate. I just don't see any other way around it. Fascinating. The good news is, I think, from my perspective is- By the way, sorry, last thing.
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I would say that's a total theory and I could change my mind as I get more data, but I'm just saying I'm just trying to work through the possibilities. And in the distribution of outcomes, that's sort of where my head's at right now.
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The populace has to want to continue to back and they have to understand what- Backing strategies that reward asset owners when asset owners are a shrinking minority is not a good idea.
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But that's not true. I think you're confusing that with how certain people... Everybody has an iPhone, that's true, but you're the one that's talked a lot about this a lot. It hasn't lifted average hourly earnings that much. In fact, we've had massive wage suppression It has rewarded the employees and the stockholders of Apple or Google or Meta, but that's not everybody.
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I don't think it does. I think it benefits supremely a small cohort of people. That's why the denominator goes up. But does it affect individual people in measurable ways on a broad-based basis? I think that's been statistically proven as not to be true. That's why we have the populism we have today.
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I'll give you a prediction. I will predict that within the next few months after this gets announced, you are going to hear about founders taking $5 million of secondary in a round to make sure that if they are non-Americans to get their visas.
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Is that how it's going to work? Or is that is it going to be tied to a person? Do you think?
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Yeah.
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Well, I think that there's a lot of hidden billionaires. Russia and China. Even in America. I would guess that there's at least 10,000 or 15,000 billionaires in the world.
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And so then as a cent a millionaire, probably 50,000. That's what I think.
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You're going to buy a house here worth $10 million. And Donald Trump said that you would not have to pay any tax on foreign assets.
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No, no, no. A real green card is what I had, which is your global income is taxed. So it's worse. Meaning the green card is worse than this. This is way better. So if I had to do it again and this was available to me, I would have spent 5 million bucks.
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That's in year one. You ask in year one. It takes six months to get anything done in Washington. This poll is dumb. The real question is, how hard will they be vetted? Because I think the point is, there's a lot of gray money around the world. So the question is, can you bring it into the light?
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So how many, like, look, I know of many people in India, many, who are extremely wealthy in ways that we don't understand. And their wealth is literally like in cash, it's in gold. How are they supposed to kind of like, if they wanted to like raise their family in America, because now it's possible, how do they do that? How do they take their assets and
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Do you go to JP Morgan and all of a sudden, like you show them this golden visa and they say, great, we're going to, if there's a workaround to like the KYC AML laws, honestly, Freeburg, you could sell 2 million of these things. Don't think so. If you literally have to go through the existing set of frameworks on like OFAC, AML, KYC, all that stuff, it's probably in the tens of thousands.
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I think that both are true. I think that we're all much better off just owning indices, or at least that was true. I think the problem with these indices right now is those are not really well-balanced indices because the rules have changed. The rules have changed because these companies have been smart enough to lobby folks like S&P, and S&P has allowed these thresholds to creep up.
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So now when you're buying the S&P 500, you're not doing that anymore. You're buying the S&P 7 and then the rest in the 493 is 60%. So if that's what you want, that's fine. So we'd have to fix the ETF market to make sure that there was a little bit more transparency and there was more balance. But these weighted indices are basically just the mag seven. That's neither good nor bad.
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I'm just saying that's what it is. And so- Yeah. And I'm just saying- It just creates the same problem. People think they're buying diversification because you're like, hey, go here and it's diversified. And it turns out it's not.
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I think the balance that we will have to strike is there are a lot of people that are on the outside looking in with no assets. And then second, there are a lot of young people who want the high alpha opportunities like crypto represents. And so Freebrook, it's easy for you to pull the ladder up from under you because you're already rich.
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But for people that are not rich, and if you went back to when you were poor, the question is, how would you have reacted if somebody above you basically said, I'm going to tell you what you can invest in? And would you have said, okay, that seems reasonable. I know you're looking out for me. And I think that's the question.
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That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying now that you're rich, you want rules for everybody else. That's not true.
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Okay, what I'm asking you is, go back to when you were poor. How would you react?
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What do you think the solution is?
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Nobody cares what Pocahontas has to say.
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Yeah, I agree with you. That is the cycle. But what I'm saying is, how do we fix it then? How do you allow people that don't have assets to have assets that work for them? How do we do that?
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I get it. That's true. What I'm saying is what you were saying before, I'm confused. What you were saying before is people should only be allowed to invest in the S&P 500. I didn't say that. That is what you said.
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That's exactly what you said. That is what you said. That is exactly what you said.
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I think what's going to happen is not much of anything. I think the rules are going to stay exactly where they are. In favor of the top 10%. Because I think this argument between the two of you is exactly the reason why it can never change. And I think that that, now again, so then what is the alternative?
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Maybe it comes back to what I said before, which is then the only alternative left is just to debase assets. And then if you debase assets and make them much cheaper, then there's less money theoretically to lose per quantum of investment. So maybe that's the right way to think about it.
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Honestly, like a six-year-old.
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A six-year-old should know that category.
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which would save $4 billion a year. I'll give him another idea, which is I think that non-farm payrolls and GDP, that data should be collected by USPS as well because they touch every business.
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You can actually get, instead of sampling with all this error and all of this craziness that we have, there has to be a way for then all of these feet on the street to get us much more accurate information so that the markets can actually function properly. I am surprised that we don't see even more dramatic revisions. And that probably, again, is like errors on top of errors.
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I really don't trust like, you know, you showed the GDP data, or you showed the unemployment rate, Jason. No, we all know this stuff is crazy. It's wrong. I just don't know how wrong it is.
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There was a tweet from this woman who got leaked some data from one of her friends or colleagues in the government where they broke down, I think, seven or eight leases and real estate things that were happening inside of, I think it was Veterans Affairs, maybe. The numbers are just astounding.
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I was a little surprised that he wrote this. I think that if you want to write about personal liberty, one of the tenets of personal liberty is free speech, but he's effectively said that certain opinions aren't allowed anymore. I don't think that that's the solution to the Washington Post. So all I think it does is it polarizes the readership even more. I looked inside of Google Trends.
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The overwhelming majority of WAPO readers are in obviously Washington, DC, and then Maryland and Virginia, which are the two surrounding states. So I think it's very much a Beltway paper. I think he's trying to have a direct influence on the ideas that folks inside the Beltway read. And so in as much as he's the owner, he's allowed to do it.
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But I wasn't a fan of that idea because I think the Elon plan is much better. Here's a fire hose, go at it. You have to find the people. Despite all the conspiracy theories, I don't think he suppresses free speech in the least. In fact, I think it's a literal free-for-all inside of X. It is a free-for-all. I mean, we've got Nazi diamond pendants coming from Kanye.
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The difficulty in X, which I think will be the next set of features that he'll have to figure out is how the curation happens.
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where you're curating, I'm curating, other people are curating. How can then, for example, like when I go to an account that I like, there's no easy way where I can mass follow a bunch of the people that they follow as an example, right? I can't just copy it. I can't sort of start with a profile.
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Those are all these things that allow you to just take on all kinds of opinions right away and filter from there. I think that that is a really useful feature So I don't know. I didn't think that if I was the owner of Washington Post, I would have been even more extreme on the free speech part. I would not have sanctioned speech.
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Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You know who you're facing in the semifinal?
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Yes. There is an audience.
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I tried to be a little... Oh, that's so diabolical.
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I did. I did. So I control it.
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How much did you make for them in the end?
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Let's play poker. We could do that. Yeah, I say we play poker. We'll play for all of the all-in profits. I'll give you two retards, 2x the chip stack, and let's see what happens.
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I'm a businessman. I want to do this so that I inflict pain on one of you or both.
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I like putting you two to the test and I like to see you two break. Okay. This is what makes him feel good. Anyways, did you guys see Brett Adcock's tweet? No. What did he say? Friend of the pod, Brett Adcock, who's the CEO and founder of Figure. He just announced today that he's moved his timelines up by two years.
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He's going to be beta testing robots in the home by the middle to end of this year. That's crazy. Crazy. Crazy.
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I don't talk about my investments. But in this case, no. No disclosures here. But in this case, no, I'm not an investor.
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Well, I think the issue is bounded by two things. One is that I'm not sure that the generalized AI is good enough yet. And what he did was he had a deal with OpenAI, which he pretty publicly canceled a few weeks ago. And he announced his own model. And I don't know the details of it to know whether he rolled it himself or this is just like taking some open source based model and iterating from it.
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but I think the model is not perfect yet to be general purpose. That's one. And then the second is a practical issue with the robots, which is that the actuators themselves are good, but they're not great. And you can see it in the demo where...
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It's an incredible demo because it shows the value and the power of the model where there's sort of this master-slave orientation that has to happen where one model is actually doing most of the computation and the second model and the second robot is then feeding off of it.
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And the demo that they do, Nick, you can probably find the video, is of them sorting a bag of groceries for the first time, totally unsupervised. It's an incredibly cool demo. It's a cool demo. The thing that you notice though is that the actuators are good, they're not great. And so the physical dexterity is still relatively limited.
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And I think that that doesn't allow these robots to be super functional in the next couple of years. But when they get that figured out, then I think it could be really useful because if you have a robot like this that could sort the groceries, make food, do the laundry, mow the lawn, so to speak, it just requires a level of dexterity that's not yet totally possible.
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They call them the Lisan al-Gaib, which if you watch Dune, is like he's the savior that's sent in Dune to basically save all of us.
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Right now, Jason is about to implode, Congressman.
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Steve Bannon says... He's doing a great job today as moderator. Is he?
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That's the gerrymandering cartel just to try to ruin the course.
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I have a totally different question, something more fun. The job of whip was totally romanticized after House of Cards. Is that Roman?
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Well, no, because you had Spacey in this really famous scene calling the whip and saying, when I was whipped, my job was to whip the votes. And then he was screaming into the phone, whip the votes. And I just remember this thinking, now that seems like a really cool job.
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Chinese Communist Party in the first year of this podcast. I have a lot of important people to look up to me, yes. But just the job of whip, is it as enjoyable as it sounds?
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Well, I get the sense that you're incredibly effective. You could whip the votes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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See, you're whipping the votes.
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Last question. Last week was pretty prolific in terms of the Senate confirmation hearings that started. I think we're still waiting to figure out when Bobby is going to come up. Do you see any pushback? Who do you think... Who might not make it?
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Yeah.
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I mean, my my perspective on this is that, to your point, in the absence of somebody being compromised, it's not an ideological difference that should stop cabinet picks on either side. Whoever is the president should get to pick their team, put the team on the field. That's the mandate he was given by the people. And then the people get to vote.
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...redux and opinion. You said you listened to the fire episode that we did.
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But just general, from the outside in, as a Minnesotan looking at California, just diagnose what's going on there.
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What was your ideological change growing up in a Republican household of cops, essentially? Yeah.
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Did you agree with Biden's framing as he was leaving about this tech oligarchy?
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The wokeism? Is it the judgmentalism? Is it the sanctimonious pandering? Is it the moral grandstanding?
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But I think the other fair commentary is he's young and he's inexperienced. What I mean by leadership is...
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In your interactions with the president, did you say to yourself, gosh, what's going on here?
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Hold on. Before we talk to Doge, Eric, you were on the House Intelligence Committee. Let's talk about TikTok. Done and dusted.
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Let's go down this, pull this thread a little bit more because you said the The Democrats themselves are good people. Some of them, many of them, you know, but then the leadership you said was corrupt. So just can you help us understand who is the leadership? And then how does the corruption play out? What does the corruption look like? Well, remember, I'm on the Republican side.
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What...
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What do you think?
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Might not. Yeah. You're in the room when these things happen. There are these off the record, I guess, intelligence briefings that happen. And this was a 9-0 unanimous Supreme Court decision. It was an overwhelming majority in Congress. Can you just help us understand what needs to happen for something like those two events to happen? Just be general.
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You don't have to say specifically, obviously, and disclose anything that you know. But we're just trying to understand how does something, when it's such a rancorous Congress, which can't seem to agree on anything, or a Supreme Court, which tends to be 5-4 on every issue, finds a 9-0 and a supermajority in Congress, Can you just help us understand?
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There was an off the record or confidential briefing to the House Intelligence Committee. So you think in that meeting there was nothing that was very meaningful that was disclosed about TikTok?
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We know that there are security vulnerabilities, for example, in WhatsApp. It's riddled with stuff. So, you know, you could send a PDF before, then you could send an image. Now you can just send a message and you can root your phone. The difference is WhatsApp is owned by an American citizen. Which is to say, all these apps are compromised.
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It's just that the TikTok is owned by a Chinese owner who is out of the reach of the United States government.
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I think you guys have to separate, look, TikTok, there are three things in TikTok, okay? There's the content and the content creators. That's one thing. Then there is a network effect. And then there is the vessel, which is the app, okay? Which is the code. My very specific point of view is the content creators and the network effect can easily be replicated in other places.
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The vessel itself is corrupt. And I think if you can't technically see that, it's probably because you're not steeped enough in the technology.
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But that you're speaking to is the content and the network.
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across Meta or across X, my preference would be X, you can replicate the network effect and you can create a mechanism for those content creators who are already on those platforms anyway to shift. My point is the vessel itself is easily rooted. I told this to President Trump when we were sitting down. I was like, that phone microphone on that iPhone can get turned on remotely.
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That's the boogeyman for what it's worth that people point to, at least when you're not in D.C. Like if somebody said, who are the leadership leaders?
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You can choose what state actor wants to do it, but I will bet you, dollars to donuts, it is inconceivable to me that the NSA did not find that capability. And the reason is not because TikTok is bad or good. The reason is all of these apps are rooted. The only difference is that most of these apps are controlled by American citizens, which gives us a control mechanism, and this app is not.
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I have sympathy for them. You guys have to assume that if it is true that the CCP uses the Chinese version of TikTok as a mechanism to surveil their own people, the idea that for an extra few units of resources they wouldn't spy on the most important, powerful nation in the world, to me seems pretty illogical and dumb. They would do it.
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And separately, it's not to say that President Trump is using TikTok per se or important people, but it is true that when you have enough people use an app, And those people come into contact with other people. Like, look what happens today. How do you exchange contact information with an iPhone? You touch one another, right? There's an NFC capability to pass code from one to the other.
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I mean, I just think it's really naive, guys, for us to not assume that technology is very deterministic. There are so many good things that happen. But there are people that are paid to find every single edge and to push it because the stakes are high. And I just think that this is an assumption that we have to live with.
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That's an ideological thing.
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There is a reason why Huawei is banned in America. Yes. Security vulnerabilities were found. They don't have our best interests. And all of a sudden you think it stopped there? China gave up and said, okay, let's go watch the dance videos now. It's great. Let the Americans dance.
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Eric, tell us about how you think this reconciliation bill, the budget, it's going to be a very knockout, drag out kind of a process. We're going to hit the debt ceiling tomorrow. And so you guys are going to be back to work right away. What do you expect?
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Do you think generally that governments should generally just have less tax receipts and be forced to spend less to be more ingenious and less over-reliant on overpowering things with money?
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Some people on the Republican side, so I think it's a wonderful point. Some people on the Republican side say this is why energy is so important for us, because when we have resource independence, it actually allows us to forge and recast many of our relationships abroad that then create a very different security envelope.
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So I helped fund Jim to get that thing off the ground. Yeah, I've been out there. And going.
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But even he will tell you.
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Doing these kinds of projects in America today is almost next to impossible and the reason he was able to do it I mean he has support from folks like you which are forward-thinking But the reason was because it had already largely been built right and he said if he had tried to get it permitted Sure, and it's just a question, you know less money for the government less regulation It almost seems like sometimes if the Republicans say yay the Democrats say no and if the Democrats said yay the Republicans would say nay and
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But if you ask everybody privately, everybody agrees the government should have less. And to your point, business people should just have more of a wide berth to actually go and work.
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So your issue is, guys, just make sure we can point to people at every part of the economic spectra. But that's a very reasonable thing to say, what you're saying.
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Oh, no, hold on. You said floor. You didn't say ground. So no, I'm going to just not listen to you.
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I have a question about today. I just want to actually go back in time. today, are there any of President Trump's nominees that really give you agita? And if so, who and why?
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Give some credit if there's something inspiring. Who do you like? Give us one that inspires you and give us one that you're like... I think Rubio's going to do a great job as Secretary of State.
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Can you say more?
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What do you think about Jason's comment? Do you think that we should systematically work through a process to deport 15 million illegals?
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What do you do after that?
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Yes, go back. Please you mentioned this the house Russia investigation created a lot of yeah Talking points on both sides that I think are still lingering and in the spirit of sort of putting it to bed Any regrets about that whole process I Was there anything substantive that came out of it ultimately?
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Or was it the beginning of this more politically directed kind of action reaction, which is now why people are afraid about what happens?
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You and Adam work backwards from an outcome. Or do you think you and Adam actually just followed the facts and.
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Yeah, like what's happening in New York and whatnot What were your thoughts for as a prosecutor on? The legal veracity of some of the things that were going on to to Trump leading into this election
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So correct if no one's one of your kids were charged with a misdemeanor Would you hope that it was just prosecuted as a misdemeanor or do you think that? Folks that may not like Eric Swalwell figure out a way to now make it a felon the former. Yeah.
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What's happening in California? Give us the grade on Gavin Newsom and Karen Baxter.
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That was awesome.
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Do you view him the party leader? I do. So to your point, this was almost like a Donald Trump hostile takeover of the Republicans. Meaning if you look at the establishment rhetoric of what Republicans stood for, I don't think Trump really cared. He had a point of view and he had his own intellectual agenda and ideology. And to your point, 77 million people said, I go with that.
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Do you think that that's possible on the Democratic side as well? Do you think that there's a different ideology that needs to be born there?
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Exactly.
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Well, he took the time to understand it.
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I mean, I think he is a generational retail politician.
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And what you think reconciliation is going to look like. I mean, this is going to be a very gnarly conversation. pitch battle here. How do we get $2 trillion out of the United States budget?
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Well, actually, let's ask that question. Is two even possible? And if so, how do you think you can get $2 trillion out of it?
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I said none of that. But I think more changes are coming, Jason. Maybe to our home state of California. Let's see.
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Do you think there was a cover up freebreak? What is your intuition on that?
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Daszak, yeah.
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What is Threads?
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What's your take on this? I would like to make four points, I think, that kind of summarize my view of this. I think what happened here needs a really clear accounting because the implications are far greater than I think people realize. And I think why maybe the four of us have always been tugging on this little thread is because each of us instinctively understood that. So
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The first is, if you just look at the macro economic consequences of what COVID did and our reaction, we broke the seal. of having absolutely no accountability on massive spending, right? So there are subsidies, there are kickbacks, there are government programs that now number in the trillions of dollars a year incremental to what we were going to spend if things were the status quo.
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And the problem is that, and Freeberg has talked about this really eloquently in the past, it's creating a massive debt issue that us and our children and our grandchildren are going to have to deal with. If we had responded to this pandemic differently, those issues would not have occurred.
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If we had just kept the economy open because we understood what was going on, we would not have reacted the way that we did, and we would not have nearly as much debt as we had, and we would not have made it okay for politicians to spend trillions of dollars. That is a direct consequence of our reaction to COVID, not COVID itself.
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The second is we caused billions of people all around the world to take immaturely tested drugs. They were called vaccines. We found out that they were modestly effective at best. And then some of them were designed in some ways to manipulate our DNA, and we just don't know what the long-term impacts will be. We see some small issues of myocarditis. We see other issues of all-cause mortality.
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But the point is, we just don't know. And that would not have happened had we not rushed to force people to stand in a line and get a jab in order to get back to their normal life. That was a direct consequence, not of COVID, but of a reaction. The third is what we're realizing right now is that we had this power drunk apparatchik.
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And this is similar to the quote that Mike Pompeo made when he took over the CIA and What he found, and he said this after when he left, was there were people on the top floor of the CIA building, the seventh floor of the Pentagon, that fundamentally believed that it wasn't the Democrats nor the Republicans that ran the country, but it was them.
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And I see a similar level of arrogance here, which is this belief that they know better. And so what they did was they committed the greatest sin, which is where the coverup is way greater than the crime. And they created a setup where all of these things were amplified by their prestige, their perceived scientific knowledge,
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But what they were really doing was keeping critical information to themselves and then trying to cover it up, Jason. That is so unacceptable when you think of the broad consequences of what happened. And that's what needs to get documented. And I do think there needs to be some form of accountability for that.
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Trillions. Tens of trillions.
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I am infuriated by this. Imagine what happened in the Situation Room or the equivalent, wherever the President of the United States, all these world leaders were... coalescing to try to make decisions in that period, they all looked at this quote unquote expert. They pointed at Fauci and said, lead us out.
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And so do we not think that at any point he was thinking, how do I do this in a way where I have no fingerprints? Clearly the answer is, in fact, he was leading from a position of how will I not have any fingerprints on this? And so did we get the best advice? On the margin, I think it's pretty fair to say we could not have gotten it because he was too conflicted.
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He was figuring out how to cover up what happened as opposed to just own it and then help the world get out of it.
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This is nutty.
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There are examples we know. I'll just point to two. Let's just say the attempted overthrow of the Ukrainian government in 2014.
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You can go back to Iran-Contra as yet another example, and you can add gain-of-function research now, which is, again, I'll just go back to when there are these lifelong bureaucrats that believe they're above the law, that there's this sensation that they can pull the levers of power silently behind the scenes because they know better.
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And then what they're doing, as you guys said, is they are controverting the desires of the people. So whether you like President Obama or not, he's duly elected by the people. And when he says this isn't allowed, it shouldn't be allowed. And when you instantiate chaos and wars and all of this other stuff, overthrows and all of these other places that then create all these long tail effects,
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they're not done with really America support. They're done by a small group of people who think they know better. And I think that we've created that kind of a problem that needs to get fixed. And so I think that this has to be an example where you can make them an example, because otherwise it will keep happening.
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We did it for Dean Phillips.
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And there are other parts of the American bureaucracy where people are in charge of very critical and important decisions. And I suspect 99% of them are good, earnest, honest people doing the right thing for America. But it's just the law of large numbers. There will be one or two, and all it takes is one or two who get drunk with that power.
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Chris Christie came on. And Chris Christie came on, although I don't think we technically did a fundraiser, but we would have. And we've asked President Biden, and we have not heard back.
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And so unless that there's a check and balance on that dynamic, we'll have more issues of this. And as the world gets more sophisticated and we rely more on experts, I hate to say this, guys, but you have to be more skeptical of experts. As much as you think an expert is an expert, you have to fight the tendency of saying, I'm going to abdicate all of my intellect onto you and you decide.
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I think you have to find a way of just gut checking. And Sacks said this critical thing. If I was the president of the United States in a pandemic, I didn't need the COVID to teach me this example. But if I'm trying to solve a very technical and hard engineering problem, what I always do is I bring a cross section of people in a room
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Typically, some of them have to have disagreeing opinions and I make them intellectually fight it out. And my job is to observe. And in that, I apply my judgment. I'm not nearly as smart as them. I'm not nearly technically as trained as them, but that is a process that works.
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And I'm just questioning, it couldn't have happened here because as Zach said, if you basically bury the reputations of the folks that are pushing back, you could never bring them inside the room in the Oval. and have a conversation with them and say, hey, Jay, Bhattacharya, give us the red team version of what you think is happening. And that is a real problem.
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And Chamath, would you host a fundraiser for Biden as well as Trump? Absolutely. Look, here's the thing. I am an apolitical person who has to make a difficult decision every four years. And I think most of us are like that. I don't think it's so easy to wake up in the morning and say, oh, I'm clearly a Republican or I'm clearly a Democrat. There's parts of both sides that appeal to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We talk about term limits for politicians. Maybe we actually need term limits for the administrative apparatchik that runs all these critical organizations.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so you have to make these reasoned decisions. And then that gets even more complicated, right? So the most important thing for me is get as many people on in a position to tell their version of the truth So that you can see an unfiltered version of that truth and decide for yourself. So I was really blown away when I heard Dean Phillips and Bobby.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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President Trump was really onto this because he's the one that really coined the term the deep state and went after it. And if you think about the other side, right, the people that are there,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It must be very discomforting to hear because a lot of those people are folks that worked hard, tried to go to good schools, get educated, and join an infrastructure to move a country forward because they believe in the country and the values of America. It sounds like a noble mission, right? But over long periods of time...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Most people come and go, and then there's a small cohort of folks that sort of end up ossifying and running the top parts of this permanent bureaucracy. And I think Sachs is right. They start to observe just the simple principle that all these folks come and go, yet I'm still around. President comes, president goes. Undersecretary comes, undersecretary goes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The secretary of this comes and then they go. And so they start to believe that they're really in charge. And that's where the deep state idea comes from.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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They're not wrong. Their intuition is right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'd call it evil because it was premeditated. And then, look, the point is we're supposed to have this check and balance from the media. But when the media is complicit because they like to be in those halls of power, that's where these feelings come from. I think the latest stat that I saw is I think more than 52% of Americans now believe that the mainstream media is untrustworthy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And that's a really terrible place to be, which means you're basically- Where do you get truth? You're consuming something that's just fundamentally not true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Live streamed on YouTube. We'll put the link in the show notes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I thought there's parts of both of those platforms that I agree with. There's parts that I disagree. And the same thing happened when I sat down with Vivek. I thought that I wouldn't agree with much. I ended up agreeing with a lot. There's a lot of stuff that Trump in hindsight, again, as I've said before, that he did, which was really helpful to America. And one big thing, which had he done,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I thought it would be good to talk about crypto for a couple of reasons. One is because we just had the halving at the end of April. When did that happen? The halving is where, just for folks that don't know, the way that Bitcoins are created is by solving these complex mathematical algorithms that take a lot of time and energy and money. And when you solve it, you get rewarded.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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with some number of Bitcoin. And roughly every four years, that reward gets cut in half. It's called a halving. And this week, I saw somebody who reminded me all of this. And I just want to give this guy a proper shout out. So his name is Wences Casares. And Wences, in Silicon Valley, I would say, really was agent zero of Bitcoin. He was the one in 2010 that introduced it to me.
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I remember he reminded me of the story. Actually, we were at Orens Hummus And he's like, he's Argentinian. He's a Greek. So I'm going to try to copy his accent. You have to buy the Bitcoin. So I heard the story. I fell in love with it. I remember I called my family office. I'm like, buy me a million of these things. And he was like, or a million dollars worth. And he was like, are you crazy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I was like, no, there's just a little appetizer. We'll get to the main course. Anyways, he has done a phenomenal job of understanding and proselytizing Bitcoin. And I want to thank him because he really put me onto this. But he mentioned something to me when I saw him a couple of days ago, which is you should really look at the pattern of Bitcoin after a halving. And so I was really curious.
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And so I had a guy on my team, Quinton, put this together. So Nick, let's go to the first page. So why is this interesting? So here's a little Bitcoin price analysis for you guys. So there's been a couple of halving cycles that have happened. And I asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a halving.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I smell an intro. Tell us, J. Cal, what was the week like? What kind of week have you had? What kind of week have you had? Incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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three months, six months, nine months, 12 months, and 18 months after a halving. And what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a Bitcoin halving, people are sort of reassessing what's happening and they're trying to figure it out. That's sort of what I would say happens in the first month and roughly what also happens in the first three months.
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But then within six months to a year and 18 months of these things, there are these crazy price appreciation cycles that happen. So that's what this page shows, which is 18 months after the first halving, the Bitcoin price returned 45X. After the second halving, it returned almost 28X.
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And after this third halving, it returned almost an 8X, which is really incredible returns in such a short period of time. If you go to the next page. And so if you graph that, this is what it starts to show, which is what is this price performance after each of these halving cycles. Now, why is that interesting?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, it's interesting because on top of this having, which theoretically, if history is a guide, we should see some price appreciation. Obviously, the other thing that's happened is we've commercialized Bitcoin. And we talked about this sort of as my big prediction for 2024, which is these ETFs are really going to allow Bitcoin to cross the chasm and have its sort of central key moment, right?
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frankly, sets up our children, which is these hundred-year bonds and defraying the cost of all of this indebtedness far out into the future. So there's many things. And I think there's things that Biden has done that I think we'll look back and say, those were good things that he did. And then there are things in the future or today that I think that we could disagree with as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. And so if you apply the averages, and again, these are just averages, they're by no means predictions. Okay, so I just want to qualify that. These are just- This is not financial advice. It's not financial advice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We took these and we applied it to the price of Bitcoin. And if you go to the next page, you start to see what could happen If you just take the average of the last few cycles, because the first cycle was so extreme, and you start to apply- Oh, so you're just doing cycle two and three here, to be clear.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Just the averages of cycle two and three, and what you start to see is some really meaningful appreciation. And when I talked to Wences about this, how he explained it, which makes a lot of sense to me, is there are a lot of countries- that will never look at Bitcoin credibly, even if they support it. The US may be one of those.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But there is an increasing body of countries that will become dual currency. And they will look at their local currency, and then they will look at Bitcoin. And they will say both of these two things are needed. One, when you're transacting on a daily basis for random goods and services.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And two, when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value, you'll use something like BTC. And I think that's a very powerful concept. And if you look at what this price chart could indicate, is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation, it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets.
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And I think if you marry that with this worry that some folks have about dollar debasement, you start to see some really interesting opportunities. So I just thought that this was a Interesting thing that he... Here's our disclaimer. Interesting thing that he put me on. I thought I'd share that with you. I'll publish this on Twitter, but that's your crypto corner for the year, folks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's the biggest lobby in America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So the point is, I would like this place to be a place where impartiality rules, where we can be on all sides of an issue and just decide what makes the most sense after looking at the facts. And I would like, four years from now, every major political candidate for president to look at All In as the first place.
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Did you guys hear this rumor that SBF was going to put a billion dollars into the election and convince Tom Brady to run as a Republican? And give, no, give the billion to Trump. Oh, sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's hard to quantify. If young people show up, it could be 500 basis points. I mean, young people do not show up to vote because there isn't an issue that they care about. Correct. But there's 50 million Americans that own crypto. 50, 5-0. Okay. So if 10% of them are like, let's say that's their single issue, that's 5 million votes. No, no, no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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There's a plausible case where 40 million of those folks show up because you're talking about a structural part of their wealth creation, right? So for example, like, you know, Biden, President Biden talked about giving people a headstart by eliminating their debt. That's a narrow issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the reason it's a narrow issue, there's just as many people that don't have debt and just as many people that paid off their debt, and it creates a lot of haves and have-nots, right? And there's all these rules around who will get the debt relief, et cetera. You end up touching four or five million people maximum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But if there are 50 million people who have now decided to have at least a hedge against the establishment and the traditional financial system, and you are threatening to take that wealth away, I could see how 80% of those folks show up to the ballot box and say, all right, which one of you will just leave me alone?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And if the answer is President Trump, then they're all going to vote for President Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Never.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think if we can earn that trust and have the integrity to allow all sides to tell a fair story, that is gonna be a really powerful thing and an artifact to leave behind for people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think that if you look at what happened before, we had A cycle where very large monolithic software was replaced by these SaaS vendors and Salesforce led that charge and they led the, in many ways, the definition of the cloud. So that was amazing. That was this one big cycle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And before that, that monolithic, those monolithic software vendors were replacing like mainframes and very archaic stuff. This is sort of this third disruptive cycle. We're going to go through a process of ripping and replacing these legacy products. And so Gen AI is just an enablement layer that allows you to deliver functionality to people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think what you're going to find is that it allows you to deliver that functionality at much, much cheaper. To your point, that's the whole point of 80-90. We always joke, is Salesforce going to get 80-90? Yeah, because you can deliver 80% of the features at a 90% discount pretty easily today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And what you can't deliver today will get much, much easier in a year and two years and three years, for sure in 10 years. So I think what the market is voting with their dollars is that these large, lumpy, monolithic software companies that need big $50, $100 million customers
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They're not going to find them soon because those customers will realize that you could get, you know, what Freeberg said, what you need for 10 million or 5 million or 1 million or 500,000 and in some cases free. And so the cost structure of your organization makes no sense.
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And so you're going to have to go through this very complicated cycle of recycling, you know, the business model, which unfortunately will mean tons of layoffs. That's not a today thing. But over these next five and 10 years, that's probably what's going to happen. And it doesn't mean Salesforce is a bad company. It's just that it is on the wrong side of the lifecycle.
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And the odds are overwhelmingly such that a bunch of small companies will flood this opportunity and provides cheaper, smaller, more flexible capabilities.
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I don't think that that explains a 20% drop in a day. I think typically these public market investors internalize a bunch of fears and they don't execute on those fears. And then when given an opportunity, they just barf it all out because it's like now it's acceptable. And so to your point, David, like it was such like a
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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an insignificant revenue miss so as to not even be important, quite honestly. But the reason it's down 20% is I think folks have internalized a different set of risks, and then they've found an escape hatch where they have plausible deniability for selling.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We talked about this last week because this number's fake.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Incredible, right? Incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Chamath, your take. I think that if you went into this looking to confirm your hatred of President Trump, you were the one that was given red meat. And I think that if you were undecided or... pro-President Trump, you probably found more reason to support him for all the reasons that Friedberg said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The thing that's unique about this specific trial that I found rather interesting was the diversity of people who just couldn't understand what this trial was about, whether it was Bill Barr, who worked for him but was not a huge fan of his, nor was Trump a or vice versa, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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To an Alan Dershowitz, to a Cyrus Vance, you had Democrats and Republicans and independents, legal scholars, legal experts, some who liked president Trump, some who did not, some who got along with him, some who did not, some who fought with him, some who did not, some who got fired by him, some who did not. And they were all categorically confused about what this whole thing was about. I'm not,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We've said this before, but, you know, in the end, what do you have? You have your family, you have your children, you have your friends, and hopefully you have work that gives you some purpose. And in all of that, if there are random people that are judging you for one thing, they'll eventually judge you for another thing. And that is not a path to any sort of contentment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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legally well-versed enough to understand what it was. So as a layman, you then tend to go to this next obvious thing, which is you have to bucket this decision as here are some experts and what they know is better than what I know. And we talked about this earlier on the pod today when it came to Fauci and it turned out to not be so true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Or you go to this other place where are there systems of government that can be convoluted and turned in the favor of the majority who's in power against someone that they feel is a threat. And we've talked about that as well with respect to how some of these governmental institutions have targeted some of our friends.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I think that we're in a very precarious moment where the systems of governments in the United States are a little bit more fragile than they were the moment before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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What was the second crime, J. Cal, if you understand the case at all?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I've donated to Bobby Kennedy. I've donated to the Democrats massively. And I'll donate to Donald Trump. And if there's an opportunity to talk to President Biden and really understand where he's at, I donate to him as well. And so the point is that I would like to be an organizing principal. And I would like to replace...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You're a famous, successful person. Over the next 10 or 20 years, the odds are pretty good you'll be more famous and more successful. Say more, Chema. Do you feel the less, the same, or more? You have to say less, same, or more. If somebody in government doesn't like what you're up to, after today, are you less the same or more successful?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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in terms of the risk that the laws could be used to fight you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Today, the places that I don't trust to organize and give unfiltered access to knowledge. And those things are the mainstream media. And so I'm willing to put my resources behind being that organizing principle. And I think having a broad cross-section of friends who have different political beliefs is actually a useful thing for a lot of these candidates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And that's the only way you could get her from a misdemeanor to a felony. Yeah. Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Because as it turns out, most people are sort of in the middle. And most people in any given election can be persuaded one way or the other. So the most important thing that we could do is get all of them, give all of them an opportunity to really tell an unfiltered version of their truth and then let the chips fall where they may. That is the right thing to do for America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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This is unsustainable, guys. I've been saying this now for a month. So let's just be precise again. You cannot spend this kind of money and show no incremental revenue potential. So while this is incredible for NVIDIA, the chicken is coming home to roost. Because if you do not start seeing revenue flow to the bottom line of these companies that are spending $26 billion a quarter,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The market cap of NVIDIA is not what the market cap of NVIDIA should be. And all of these other companies are going to get punished for spending this kind of money. Now, Dell is a unique example in the sense that I actually think it's a beneficiary of spend.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think that it will build data centers and it will actually do well in the move to AI because it's a very smartly positioned pick and shovels provider. But the threshold question is, where are all these newfangled things that we're supposed to see that justifies $100 billion of chip spend a year, $200 billion of energy spend, $100 billion of all this other stuff?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Guys, we're now spending $750 billion. This is on the order of a national... transfer payment and we've seen nothing to show for it except that you can mimic somebody's voice and you can make like a cat jump on another cat i mean making a developer 30 or 40 percent more efficient that's actually legit but i will say that hasn't happened yet either No, that's totally happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
That's what democracy means. So this kind of like cajoling and bullying in either side, I find really distasteful and I find very immature.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I think that developers can go faster with these tools. But these are, yes, but these are aspirational things. When you take a, for example, a 30,000 person company. It is not true that those engineers now are now all of a sudden as productive as 130,000 employees. It's not even true that a thousand employee company is as productive as a 4,000 person company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And the reason is for one very specific thing. Even as all of these next generation models get released, the practical threshold problem is when you introduce a completely new way of doing things into an existing workforce, what happens is people push back. And even in the companies that I own where I could theoretically mandate, you must use these tools because I am the owner of this company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
It doesn't happen. And so I think what you're really seeing, Jason, is a few people embrace it. Those people may be 50 to 100% more productive. But when you blend that into the entire workforce, it's still a single digit percentage, which means the overall productivity gains are nominal. Yet you're being forced to spend, again, $750 billion a year. It doesn't all hang together yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You get around the innovators dilemma by saying, guys, you need to be AI first. from the outset, which a startup can do because they can recruit people that, for example, with 80-90, same thing. You must use these tools. For example, we are not allowed to have any administrative staff. Everything is done by an agent or workflow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
But that's because we're a new company and we can make those decisions. But somebody who is at an established company, I suspect that these gains are nominal at best, yet the spend is outrageous. And when it catches up with you when you report,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I think the thing that hasn't happened yet is we haven't actually now started to talk about the contours of a handful of policy things where there is some deep diversion now, where these candidates are diverging from each other. And I think that that's going to be really interesting to see how much people value that differentiation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I'll give you an example, which is President Trump in the last few weeks has become incredibly pro-crypto. Now, the contours of that I think we need to define, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
But the question is, is a pro-crypto environment, especially in a world where we think that there's just going to be continued dollar debasement, an important issue, an unimportant issue, or a thing that is a small issue today, but that will be critical for us in 20 and 30 years to get right? That's an example.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And there's a handful of these other things that I think that now we have a chance to really double click on where there really is some differentiation amongst the three presidential candidates. And I think that's healthy as well. And so it's important, again, get their specific thoughts on the record so that we can really figure this out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
And I think that over these next few months, I think it's going to be important to do that. So I hope President Biden also comes on the pod, quite honestly, and allows us to ask him the hard questions. And I hope Bobby comes back on, actually. And I think Bobby will if we ask him just to tighten up where he's at now a few months.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
I'm excited. I'm really excited for President Trump to come on the podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Now, the cost of that- Zach, sorry, is they DeepSeek or it's DeepSeek plus the hedge fund?
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It's hard to know what's fact and what's fiction. Everybody who's on the outside guessing has their own incentive, right? So if you're a semiconductor analyst that effectively is massively bullish NVIDIA, you want it to be true that it wasn't possible to train on $6 million.
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Obviously, if you're the person that makes an alternative that's that disruptive, you want it to be true that it was trained on $6 million. All of that, I think, is all speculation. The thing that struck me was how different their approach was.
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And TK just mentioned this, but if you dig into not just the original white paper of DeepSeek, but they've also published some subsequent papers that have refined some of the details. I do think that this is a case, and Sax, you can tell me if you disagree, but this is a case where necessity was the mother of invention.
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I'll give you two examples where I just read these things and I was like, man, these guys are really clever. The first is, as you said, let's put in a pin on whether they distilled O1, which we can talk about in a second. But at the end of the day, these guys were like, well, how am I going to do this reinforcement learning thing? They invented a totally different algorithm.
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There was the orthodoxy, right? This thing called PPO that everybody used. And they were like, no, we're going to use something else called, I think it's called GRPO or something. It uses a lot less computer memory and it's highly performant.
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So maybe they were constrained, Sachs, practically speaking, by some amount of compute that caused them to find this, which you may not have found if you had just a total surplus of compute availability. And then the second thing that was crazy is everybody is used to building models and compiling through CUDA, which is NVIDIA's proprietary language,
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which I've said for a couple times is their biggest moat, but it's also the biggest threat vector for lock-in. And these guys worked totally around CUDA, and they did something called PTX, which goes right to the bare metal. And it's controllable, and it's effectively like writing assembly.
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Now, the only reason I'm bringing these up is we, meaning the West, with all the money that we've had, didn't come up with these ideas. And I think part of why we didn't come up is not that we're not smart enough to do it, but we weren't forced to because the constraints didn't exist. And so I just wonder how we make sure we learn this principle.
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Meaning when the AI company wakes up and rolls out of bed and some VC gives them $200 million, maybe that's not the right answer for a series A or a seed. And maybe the right answer is 2 million so that they do these deep seek like innovations.
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Well, you're about to see a big test of this because if OpenAI raises 40 billion at 340 billion, that just hit the wire. The underwriting logic at 340 billion, exactly what you just said, Freebrook, it is the wrapper, meaning ChatGPT is the next killer app. It's getting to a billion plus now, hundreds of millions of DAO.
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Which puts them on a collision course with Meta. It's the only company... that could really impact that because the only company right now that has billions of eyeballs of DAUs per day, and by the way, Zuck said this in his earnings release, he's like, there's only going to be one company that brings AI to a billion plus people and it will be us.
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Some version of that quote is in his earnings release yesterday. And then Microsoft showed weakness in their cloud.
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What do you guys think is happening right now between OpenAI and Microsoft? Because if it's true that this distillation thing actually happened, well, there's only one place where you could have distilled the O1 model.
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Yeah. So when you have a big, large parameter model, The way that you get to a smaller, more usable model along the lines of what Sax mentioned is through this process called distillation where the big model feeds the little model. So the little model is asking questions of the big model and you take the answers and you refine. And by the way, you can see this, Nick, I sent you a clip.
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You guys can see this. I mean, there's clearly distillation happening. Nick, can you show the clip of the deep seek run where it shows the China answer and then deletes it? What was Winston's job in 1984, right? And it sort of starts to go through this whole summary. And then the person says, are there any actual states that currently do that? Hold on, here it goes. It says North Korea.
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Wait, it goes China. And then wait, watch this. Boom. So the reason why this is happening is like you're seeing this chain of thought, you're seeing the several layers, and then it's catching it after the fact. So we know that this is distilled from some other model.
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And my only point there, it's the little tongue in cheek is right now, when you go and use open AI, you're using it sitting in an Azure instance somewhere, right? So this is Microsoft's cloud infrastructure that runs it. So it begs the question, It's not that it's O1's fault or OpenAI's fault that this distillation happened.
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And I'm not trying to assign blame, but typically if this were to happen, you'd look to your cloud provider and say, how are you letting this happen? And I don't think anybody's had a good answer for that.
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They've been very clear about this. By the way, you have to be sympathetic, I think, to OpenAI in this because if you're building a startup, you're trying to raise money. We've all gone through this cycle, guys, where it's like there's momentum. We celebrate internally the momentum. That's what gets you the energy to push your team even further and harder.
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Then all of a sudden, it turns out that some portion of that... Travis said it well. There's probably a chart inside of OpenAI's offices where you're showing how many times these APIs are getting hit, how many times these endpoints are getting hit. It all looks positive, and then you realize that some portion of it was actually bad and trying to undercut your value. It's a hard pill to swallow.
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And then you have to course correct very quickly. You have to lock down. This is one area where- Exactly. We have not talked about this. You have to lock these models down. Now you have to lock the endpoints down. Look, in the Biden administration, if this had happened, the first conversation would have been, we need to KYC the people that use these models.
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And it's like, what are you talking about? We don't KYC the cloud. If you're trying to use an EC2 endpoint or an S3 bucket, you don't have to all of a sudden- Prove who you are. You just use a credit card and go. That's the whole point of why proliferation can happen so quickly.
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But if we take the wrong takeaways from this period, there's going to be a bunch of people that will clamor to lock these folks down and make innovation go much slower. I think that that would be bad.
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Do you see people actually cooking in the future or does it become a centralized service? And is it optimized to people's health? And what do you think the implications to the food supply are if your vision holds? How do you think about all those things?
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But this is the problem, like we, meaning like the Western AI community, we've been trudging around on this path where we had a very orthodoxical approach. The only way you can do reinforcement learning is through PPO. Okay, but is that true? And it turns out that if you're like a really smart team that has no other choice, you move away and you invent your way out of it.
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And so we have to get that example too. I think it's technically brilliant, some of the things they've done, but they also use constraint as very much a feature, not a bug. And the Western AI economy has been the opposite so far.
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I think all the pressure right now, I think, is on meta. Because I think Meta has to show up with the next iteration of Lama that beats and exceeds Gemini, that exceeds R1. And I think that that is going to be crucial for us to have a counterweight to whatever China is going to put out after this.
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Embrace and extend.
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Meta has to embrace and extend everything that these guys have shown, meaning like Meta's buying tens of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs. Great. But what did this show? This shows that actually CUDA, high level languages in general, I think we've all known that they suck. Okay. And so we've all been going through it thinking that it's like the right thing to do. DeepSeq throws it out the window.
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They use something called PTX. What does Meta do is critical not to understand. They need to embrace this stuff. And this is where I think, again, apologies to the invidiables, but it's going to create a more heterogeneous environment. And the reason is because there's too much money and risk on the line to go through a single point of failure.
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a chip, a high-level framework to get to that chip, that's nuts. So I think like that kind of like emperor has no clothes moment is upon us.
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The first is you have to build a shim. And I think the reason why a shim is really critical is that there's so much entropy at the model level. What this should show you is you can't pick any model.
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And the problem is that the people that manipulate these models, the machine learning engineers and whatnot, they become too oriented to understanding how to get output of high quality using one thing, meaning it shouldn't have been the case that we have engineers that can only use Sonnet, right? That's the anthropic model, right?
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It shouldn't be the case that people can only use OpenAI or people can only use Lama. Right now, that is kind of what we have. You don't have the flexibility to hot swap as models change. So if you were starting a company today, The first technical problem I would want to solve for is that.
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Because tomorrow, if it's R2 or Alibaba's model or Lama, I would want to be able to rip it out and put it back in and have everything work. And right now, we can't do that. The answer to your question is the application layer.
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Which country is going broke now, Fieber? America?
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Like sweet greens, like what they, yeah.
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I don't know the answer to that. And I think Saxon President Trump will make a good decision. But here's the curious case of the export controls. Nick, I sent you a couple of tweets if you want to just bring this up. So the first thing that people are claiming is that DeepSeek is getting access to a bunch of Nvidia GPUs using Singapore as a backdoor.
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So essentially you create a Singaporean shell company you place an order with Nvidia, Nvidia fulfills that into Singapore, and then the chips go someplace. There's a bunch of examples where people are saying that you're talking about up to a quarter of all Nvidia revenue goes into Singapore.
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The speculation right now is that 100% of those then go into China, which is an enormous claim because that's a huge amount of Nvidia's revenue. Now, the interesting thing is if you actually try to understand, well, maybe that's not true and maybe it's sitting inside of Singapore, this is where that kind of unravels. So just to be clear, Singapore is about 250 or 260 square miles.
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It's like a small, small place. Also the TikTok headquarters. And I tried to find out how many data centers are in Singapore and it's about 100. And so you would think that, okay, well, what does that mean? 100 could mean anything. But then you look at the energy and they publish that. And all of those hundred data centers consume about 876 megawatts. So these are small data centers, right?
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And the entire industry is like a one and a half, $2 billion revenue business. So I do think that SACS and the administration are going to have to dig into this and figure out what their opinion should be. But there is clearly a ton of these chips going into Singapore. I don't think anybody knows where they end up. And the question is, what does America think about that?
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And why did we implement these export controls in the first place? And if there's a simple backdoor, how do you want to react?
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This is a great point, but it's worse than that. The models today are capable of designing chips for you that don't rely on the most complicated technologies that ASML creates. I mean, look, one of the luckiest things that happened to Grok was we designed our chip at 14 nanometer, which is effectively in the spectrum of technology like VHS and beta.
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So we chose a simple, simple technology stack to build towards. The latest cutting edge chips at like two nanometer that use these complicated ASML machines, it's not clear that the yield is actually that good. So why would you spend all that money?
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And if China is forced to engineer its way around it, yeah, Friedberg, the answer to your question is they'll use these models to design chips that can be manufactured in simple ways and they'll make simple stuff.
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Well, it doesn't. And this is why I think it doesn't solve the real problem, which is how do we incentivize people in America to really out-engineer and out-innovate? Competition.
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Or the other version as well is that China could just bear the cost as a central authority of building an incredibly great model, right? And they will spend all the money and then they will tell the Chinese companies, you can distill from this model for free Because we have a golden vote and a seat on your board anyways, which is effectively de facto what happens if you get big enough in China.
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So there's that possibility as well, where one central authority bears the capex of creating something that then everybody else can draft off of.
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That's so cool.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Do you think there's a service in the future where my physiology, I can share that with you, with Cloud Kitchens, and you guys just can always be optimizing my food based on what I know is good or bad for me?
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I'm adding you right now.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Eggplants. People are like, oh my God.
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I think that we have to remember that we're only nine or 10 days into Doge. So the fact that we're already at a billion dollars a day is really incredible. And there has really been no discernible impact. There has been a lot of fissures of fake news and misinformation, but the real impacts have been negligible to none since they started making those cuts. I think that Doge is a three-layer onion.
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So layer one is the people. We have now given a pretty generous offer to folks. And I think Elon said it, it was like basically the maximum allowed by these contracts, but they tried to do a very good thing there.
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The second, as you guys just said, the second layer of the onion is going to be the infrastructure, all the buildings, all the physical plants that the government owns and operates that may be empty, that may be idle, and getting them back into private hands so that they can be repurposed. That's going to save a ton of money.
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But both of them will pale in comparison to the third layer of this onion, which is the IT and the services and the spend. And what I mean by that is when you read how the department is set up, at the center and nucleus of every single one of these Doge teams is an engineer. And I think the reason is that they can get into these systems of record and start to trace where the money is going.
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It should be a brand like then Sweet Greens or whomever, Chipotle, that says, hey guys, share with me like an encrypted hash of your dietary restrictions, needs, whatever, your lipid panel, and I'll customize this thing and then you enable that.
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And I think when you start to uncover through forensic analysis where these dollars are going and how it's spent, that's probably how you're going to close the gap from a trillion to, and I suspect to be honest, it could be more than $2 trillion when it's all said and done. That is an enormous amount of waste and it's unproductive. So I'm very excited for what happens over this next little while.
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Just the transparency is going to be incredible.
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DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
What do you think, Travis, about this whole Maha movement and just the food supply itself? So then how does that change? Do restaurants embrace more farm-to-table stuff?
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Robots need actuators. Do you know what you need for an actuator? A permanent magnet. You know what you need for a permanent magnet? Rare earths. Who's the rare earth king? Ex-China? Greenland.
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Can I put you on the spot? Just go one level above it because merge the last two concepts together. We talked about the federal government, DOGE, et cetera. Isn't there the potential for just a complete surplus of physical inventory that exists in America? Oh, yeah. Big time. So what does that mean for commercial? Navigate around that because you've got to evade the falling knives first.
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But what should we do with that? And is there a demand for that land?
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And then don't we have to reevaluate all of the city planning today? Because city planning today, to your point, works backwards from all these constraints that are 1.0 constraints. Like here's the traffic flow, here are the traffic patterns. Those don't exist theoretically anymore, or they would exist in a totally different way, right?
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But that's not a bad idea if you want to have farm-to-table healthy food. It's literally farm-to-table. It's like a mile away from you.
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You could imagine— But that's what I wanted you to say, not to try to get you there, but—
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Well, that seems like the crazy thing that nobody is thinking about, which is in this push, this physical built inventory has so much value built up in the 401ks of individuals to the balance sheets of huge pension funds, but that value could be very different.
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I would just say that the long end of the yield curve is basically telling us that there's still a chance for inflation. So I think that the question is these next 30 or 60 days from the administration, I think are basically, they're critical. And I think if Doge gets to the 3 billion a day number quicker than people thought, there's going to be a lot of room for, I think, the president to
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make a very valid argument that rates are too high for where they are and that we're going to be able to have a lot more cost control in the expenses, which means that there'll be less need to spend. It doesn't solve the problem that Yellen created.
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Yellen and Biden on the way out the door, the biggest problem was that they put America in this very difficult position because they issued so much short-term paper that is extremely expensive. And as all of that rolls off, we have to go and finance a ton of this debt at now 5%.
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And I think that that could take a lot of the energy out of the market.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
The problem is if we go to five and a half percent, that's not 80 basis points. What you really need to think about is the total tonnage of actual dollars that need to get repaid back. And if you look backwards, that's effectively like 10% rates from 2000. Could you imagine what the economy would have done if you had brought rates to 10%, 11% 20 years ago? It would have crippled the economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
The onesie was crazy. Your bowl builder, Friedberg, you tried to do this, right? Itza. Itza and –
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
So we don't have a lot of room here where you can walk rates up to 5.5%, 6% without... a lot of things starting to break.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
This is why I actually think Doge will be successful because as people internalize all of these things where every single congressperson, Freeberg, that may have wanted their own benefit for their community, they'll have to take a step back because the broader optimization for America just needs to take precedence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
No, they won't. They won't. But the question is, can they block it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I just think this is where I think Elon's fame can be helpful. And I mean very specifically this following idea. You know, that famous Sputnik comment where NASA spent millions of dollars trying to engineer a pen that could write upside down, and it turned out that in Sputnik, the Russians just took a pencil.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
That is what we need to do to the US government, because I suspect even though there's a lot of mandated spend, the real question that nobody knows the answer to is, is that spend useful? So even though it's appropriated by Congress, there has to be a feedback loop that says, you can just use a pencil. You don't need the upside down writing pen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And I think that if there's anybody that can broadcast that to the world, it's him. And this is where I think Trump gets enormous leverage by having Elon in the West Wing. But nobody else could give him. The rest of us would just be chirping into the darkness.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I'll share two things. One is anonymous. It's from a friend of mine gave it to me and said I could share it. This is a commercial pilot, and I posted this, so I'll just read it. Honestly, DCA is the sketchiest airport we fly into. I feel like the controllers there play fast and loose, hence the periodic runway incursions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I've said to every first officer in my threat briefings that we both need to be on red alert at all times there. DCA calls out helo traffic, helicopter traffic, and vice versa all the time, but it's borderline impossible to see them when you're bombing along at 150 miles per hour. I mean, that's from a pilot that is not, I don't think he has any incentive to sugarcoat things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And then I just wanted to read a message from Brian Yutko, who's the CEO of WISC, who's building a lot of these autonomous systems. He said, first, auto traffic Collision avoidance systems do exist. Right now, these aircraft will not take control from the pilot to save the aircraft, even if software and systems on the aircraft know that it's going to collide.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
That's the bit flip that needs to happen in aviation. Automation can actually kick in and take over even in piloted aircraft to prevent a crash. That's the minimum of where we need to go. Some fighter jets have something called automatic ground collision avoidance systems that do exactly this when fighter pilots pass out, and it's possible for commercial.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And then the second, he said, is we need to have better ATC, air traffic control, software and automation. Right now, we use VHF radio communications for safety and for critical instructions, and that's kind of insane. We should be using data links, et cetera. The whole ATC system runs on 1960s technology. They deserve better software and automation in the control towers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
It's totally ripe for change. The problem is that attempts at reform have failed. So I just wanted you guys to have that, one from this commercial pilot, and then two from Brian Yudko, who I think understands this issue really well. There's so much opportunity here to make this better. This should have never happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Our other friend, Sky Dayton, has been pushing really hard for the US government to do advanced pilot training. One of the things that he says constantly is just that a lot of the pushback is just union rhetoric around what they perceive the right thing for their constituency is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Hopefully, this starts this conversation because I think guys like Sky, guys like Brian are working on this next level of autonomous solution that can just make flying totally, totally safe beyond what it was. The crazy stat is that we haven't had a commercial airline disaster in the United States in almost 25 years. Isn't that incredible?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Love you, boys. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Sorry, just real quick. Do you think there's one LLM or one foundational model read that effectively does everything like a meta model that starts to take most of the market or does different... versions of smaller models or small agents that kind of network together, end up being the best solution for specific applications and verticals. Like how does this evolve over time?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Like everyone's got this concept that there's a God model that does everything and wins. And whoever gets the God model wins everything. But the reality of software and principles of biology would indicate that you'll see like smaller network things that are better at doing things than any one big thing. And I'm curious to hear your point of view on the philosophy of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Or language translation, right? If I just want to do language translation, I don't need a massive model. I just need a model that's really good at language translation. Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Do you feel the voters felt, Reed, do you think the voters felt left out? the Democratic voters?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I would have liked to have that speed run. Do you think it sets a bad precedent that there were these back room conversations? Obviously, The staff of Whitmer, Moore, Shapiro, their office speaks with Democratic Party leadership, speak with big donors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And there was effectively a coalescing that took place over a period of time that said, we should all stand behind and endorse one person instead of infighting and creating a split in the party. And does that not set a bad precedent that there is a small group of people in either party...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
that in a primary process effectively get to nominate their candidate, get their candidate to become the nominee. And therefore there's only two people for the country to choose from. And as we have seen recently with RFK Jr. and the lawsuits against him in being on the ballot in different states, it makes it very difficult maybe for the people to have their choice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And is that a bad way for democracy to work? And I just love your philosophical view on this. I'm like, what's the best way for democracy in the United States to work?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Because you give money to folks that then execute their own strategies. So you can't control on the ground tactics, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
So there's that happens that you're like, no, don't do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Reid, do you think that, generally speaking, Marxist socialist principles are taking a firmer hold on the Democratic Party? And kind of those principles are starting to showcase not just in the cultural phenomena that Chamath is referencing, but also in some of the policymaking that's going on, and concepts of equity
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
rooted in concepts of social justice, ultimately rooted in Marxist principles emerging from the Industrial Revolution. What about price fixing? So as an example, the price gouging, you know, price caps on food proposal,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
the concepts of a wealth tax, not necessarily the unrealized capital gains tax, but separately a tax on wealth, all of these concepts of the degradation of power structure through policy. And in part, some have argued that the antisemitism arises from these principles and that the Jews are considered a privileged and powerful cultural class. Is that not being observed?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Do you not think that there's some tendencies that are emerging in the Democratic Party and maybe influenced by a louder far left and that far left is becoming more loud and better represented in the party?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Driven by fuel and labor and all the other inflationary underpinnings of those markets. And I think we tried to highlight that. I don't know if you saw Elizabeth Warren's interview on CNBC where she got taken apart because she made some claims about profiteering by Kraft Heinz. And the CNBC anchors pointed out you were actually incorrect.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kraft Heinz has seen a reduction in profit over this period of time. And so there were factual inaccuracies in these belief systems. But for me, it feels a lot like the government setting prices in free markets is one of those steps towards socialist principles that worry me the most.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yeah, if 80% or more is illiquid, then... No, you get to defer the tax, but there's a penalty. Yeah, you get to defer the tax credit as a penalty. That's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
By the way, what Sachs didn't address is Trump's tariff policy, which is also inflationary, almost equivalent to the price gouging, you know, food price caps. I think that they're both inflationary and they're both bad policy. That's my personal point of view. Tariffs is where I thought it was going to go. Yeah. Anyway. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
That's different. That's different. That's a subset. That's a different group. That's a group to counteract you and Chamath. Throwing us fundraiser for Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
We're rolling into an interview with R.F.K. Jr. It wasn't designed this way. The last minute R.F.K. It's just that last minute R.F.K. Jr., who's on vacation, said that he would talk to us about what it was like to kind of withdraw and all this sort of stuff. So we booked it right after you, but he's in the waiting room.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yeah, there are aspects of industrialized food and processed food that are bad for people. And I do agree, it should be changed. I know a lot of people that work at the USDA, a lot of people that work in other government organizations that don't make a lot of money. They may or may not have worked at other companies, but I think that there's no economic incentive for them to do harm or wrong.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
So I don't think that there's a constructive design on doing bad things by any individual. I think that there is an unfortunate circumstance where people eat bad stuff
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
stuff that tastes better they like it more it sells better and the economic incentive and capitalism is to make more of that stuff and sell more of it and as a result the stuff that people like that isn't good for them they buy more of and the companies make more money and so they continue to invest in selling more and more of that stuff and this goes in most processed foods it's terrible it's not good and so i do agree that much of this processed food industry is um
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
very adverse to health, but I don't think that there's a grand design by individuals that are malicious in their intent in trying to do it. I think that there are people that are doing their job on, hey, this is what the market wants, let's give them more.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
No, no, I think that, yeah, the point is, like if people buy more of it, they're like, let's sell more of it, you know? Yeah, okay. And if that were illegal, if it was illegal to say, hey, this sort of food product should not be made, but look, alcohol fits the bill too, right? And we keep making alcohol and sugar fits the bill. The more sugar, Coca-Cola did a study years ago
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
where they kept increasing the amount of sugar in Coca-Cola until they maximally got sell-through. So some kids liked 60 grams of sugar in 12 ounces of Coke, some kids liked 30, but the perfect level was at 42 grams. And so that study was done by the scientists that worked at Coca-Cola, and then they said, that's the product, it'll sell the most. And that's the incentive inside of that company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
That's how that company operates. Now, you could ask yourself the question, is that evil? Is that bad? We now know that sugar in general is bad. The executives at Coca-Cola, at AB InBev, at other places are trying to make alcohol-free, sugar-free alternatives. So there's a lot of push by these people. Unilever has tried to make a big push towards good food. Nestle's tried to do the same.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
They've all made these stated commitments to improve the health of the food that they produce. But it is quite difficult to be successful in doing that and returning money to shareholders. The shareholders are like, where's the money?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
What's the price of the food, Chamath? Is it more in Italy? Do you pay more, do you think? I've already commented on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I don't know if there's competition in the build-out. I think we talked about this in the past. And I don't know if you guys saw these quotes this week or recently on, we don't think about this build-out in terms of ROI. Gavin Baker in conversation on Invest Like the Best, is that the name of the podcast? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I think referenced some conversations he's been having with the leaders of these companies regarding the build-out is so important because ultimately, if you create this, quote, digital god, the return is how many trillions. So it doesn't matter how many tens of billions you're spending each quarter right now. You have to get there. You have to make sure you don't miss the boat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I will agree on an important point. The food stamp program, the SNAP program, provides food stamps to support 42 million Americans. 42 million people rely on food stamps. It costs $120 billion of federal money per year. And as, as Bobby said, the number one product bought on the food stamp program is soda, canned soda.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I guess, Reid, a question for you. You're on the board of Microsoft still, right? Yes, indeed. Has Microsoft or Satya publicly talked about how they rationalize the investing principles associated with building out AI infrastructure in the cloud? Is it ROI based? Like, hey, in the next two years, we're going to make this much additional incremental operating profit?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
And there was an important debate a few years ago about whether or not canned soda, by the way, Bobby, you and I probably agree on a lot of things. It's definitely a lot of things we don't agree on. But like, these aspects, I think, are just no brainers. There was a debate a few years ago about whether or not canned soda should be allowed as a purchase on the food stamp program.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
or whether it should be fresh fruits and vegetables and grains and other things. And ultimately there was a food lobbying effort made that kept canned soda on the food stamp program. And it is, again, $120 billion of annual federal spend with the biggest line item going to canned soda to feed 42 million Americans. And the connection is completely direct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
high sugar, high glycemic index, diabetes, and other chronic health conditions arise from that connection. So definitely aligned with you on the misincentives and the disincentives in these programs that have been created. And they only expand every year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Or is it like, hey, we got to get this thing working?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Two- All cloud computing platform companies, what's your sense on how they're thinking about it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Use their products if you want to. Use their products if you want to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Look, there's no question that Palantir sells into the deep state, but I don't know that that makes a deep state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
No, I'm not on any team in respect of I don't really understand what you're saying there. I'm just goofing. I have shares in the company. I think it's a good investment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
One thing I want to say, none of us are at any risk of running Palantir on our servers, okay? Absolutely. CrowdStrike is running in the background of many, many companies who may not even be fully aware of it. And they were certainly surprised when all those airlines' computers went down, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So my only point is maybe you should make sure about whether you're running their products or not and then make a conscious decision whether you think that's a good idea. That's all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Sure. I just don't want to overreact or overread into one day in the market. I mean, today's up, yesterday was down. These are blips in the grand scheme of things. Even a 2% to 3% move is just not that unusual.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, that's positing a future that I don't think is going to happen, at least not anytime soon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, no, I don't really buy that. And so I think this whole idea of UBI is premature and very expensive, and it doesn't work. I mean, I think what we saw from the study, just to echo what Freeberg said, is that cash transfers don't work. We saw this in the Great Society, just handing people money doesn't solve poverty. It actually traps people in conditions of dependence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
We also saw during COVID that all those STEMI checks, it might have had a macro effect in the economy of kind of boosting the economy during what could have been a COVID depression. However, at an individual level, what did we see? We saw people quitting or quite quitting their jobs. They spent more on leisure, alcohol, and meme stocks. In other words, it wasn't tremendously productive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So I think that what we've seen in the past is just handing people money doesn't create the types of outcomes that people want.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, I think it's a combination of virtue signaling combined with, let's assume that you want to become the first AI trillionaire, and people are concerned about job loss, you're going to virtue signal in the direction of, well, let's just give everyone money. And a lot of people in power will love that because it creates a lot of dependence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So it serves the interests of tech moguls and people in the government, but I don't think it serves society.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And I think one of the most interesting data points in the study, please confirm if I get this right, but what it said is that the people who got the $1,000 a month UBI saw their incomes rise to $45,000 on average, while the control group who only got $50 a month increased their average income to $50,000. Actually, just shy of $51,000.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So the people who didn't get the larger stimmy actually genuinely bettered themselves over the course of the study, while the ones who got the 12,000 a year stayed in place. And that's kind of what you'd expect, right? Which is if you just hand people money without having to work, it doesn't motivate them to work harder. It actually motivates them to do less.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And let's say that you're in a point in your career where you need to learn, you need to get mentorship, you need to advance yourself. By giving people UBI, you could be kicking out those bottom rungs of the ladder where the work isn't necessarily that fun, but you're picking up very important skills that are gonna help you rise up in the ladder. And you're not doing-
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I was a bartender. I mean, look, these are all jobs that have dignity. I mean, I think work has dignity and you need people to start somewhere. And if you just give them the STEMI or the UBI... It demotivates them from starting their careers and you trap people at this lower level. So I just don't think you're doing anyone any favors by doing this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I wouldn't necessarily call it collaboration. I call it a market position. I mean, Fox News has carved out a powerful and profitable market niche by being the one cable news network that appeals to conservatives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Now, if, you know, let's say the more liberal members of the family like James take over and change the content and the programming to serve their own political views, they're going to lose viewership. They're going to lose their audience. It would be a foolish idea just from a business standpoint. So I think that Lachlan is the right choice. I've met Lachlan before, by the way. Nice guy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
look, I think a pretty mainstream conservative type of guy, he's clearly the right guy in the family to run this. And the siblings, I think, could really screw it up. And I'm talking about not just from a content standpoint, I'm talking about from a a revenue and profit standpoint if they take it in a different direction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I would already say that Fox News has a market position problem, which is that Rupert is very much a neocon, and neoconservatism is on the way out in the Republican Party in favor of a more populist conservatism that you see with Trump or now his running mate, J.D. Vance. Rupert and Fox waged a really strong campaign to keep JD Mance off the ticket, obviously lost that battle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Rupert fired Tucker, by far their highest rated and most profitable host ever. And it was over, again, this populism versus neoconservatism direction. So I think that Fox already has a problem where they are becoming misaligned with their audience. And regardless of what you think of the politics, that's as bad for business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
It'll be really interesting to see if Laughlin will realign things in a more populist direction, but definitely going in a liberal direction that like James or the other siblings want to go in, that would be a disaster.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, look, this clearly reshuffles the race to some degree. I don't think it's a dead heat. The polling shows that Trump is still ahead in most of the swing states. But look, Harris has more upside than Biden does because she can actually campaign. I mean, Biden clearly was a surefire loser. And that was exposed in the presidential debate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And that's why there was a total panic in the Democrat Party. After that debate, they're like, we got to get someone new. And they drove him out. I do want to just say a word about that process. Hmm. Throughout that process, remember, it started with Biden doing that Stephanopoulos interview. He said that even God Almighty won't get me out of this race. Then he said, nobody's pushing me out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I'm not going anywhere. I'm campaigning next week. He expressed that what was happening in the party was a revolt against him. And then, boom, all of a sudden, he's out. And all we really know from the public reporting is that Nancy Pelosi said, Joe, we can do this the easy way or the hard way. And he was out again, less than 24 hours after he said, I'm in and I'm campaigning next week.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And even his surrogates on the Sunday morning shows were saying that he's definitely in the race. The White House staff didn't know. His campaign staff didn't know. It kind of came out of the blue. It's a very strange process. And it happened via him just posting a photograph of a letter that was on personal stationery, not even like an official... White House memorandum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And we didn't get an update. We didn't hear directly from the president about one of the most consequential decisions of his life and of his presidency until Wednesday.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Fair enough. That was the story. But still, I mean, for us to be left in the dark wondering what was really going on for three days, it was very strange. It certainly was not what you would call a democratic process. There was no speed run primary as you wanted, Jason. There was no open convention.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
What happened is the delegates fell in line instantly, as I predicted, because I said that they would not be able to handle the chaos, that they wanted to basically fall in line immediately and end the chaos. And they fell in line behind Kamala Harris, who has never gotten even one primary vote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Who's the scariest? The scariest, the one I would pick, is Josh Shapiro. He's the governor of Pennsylvania, rising star. Look, if he can deliver Pennsylvania for the Democrats, that's powerful. Because one way for Harris to eke out a victory is...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
If Shapiro can get her Pennsylvania, and then if she sort of tacks back to appealing to the Arab and Muslim vote in Michigan, to eke out Michigan and then ekes out Wisconsin with just one point. In other words, if she can hold on to the blue wall, and then she loses the swing states that Trump is very much ahead in, like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
she can still win this election by 270 electoral votes to 268. It'd be the closest margin in presidential history. So that's the scenario. And it's probably her best path to victory is to win by one electoral vote. That's the scenario I'd be most worried about as a Republican. Now, the other candidate you hear a lot about Is Mark Kelly, the senator from Arizona, who on paper looks fantastic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
He's an astronaut. His wife was a victim of a gunshot. Moderate, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I personally don't think he is that moderate, but I think he presents as one and he's, he's made noises. He comes across as tough and comes across as, as someone who's wanted to be tougher on the border, which is a huge weakness for Harris. Yeah. If he can deliver Arizona, then he becomes a strong contender, but I'm not sure that he can. So if it were me, I'd probably go with Shapiro.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
That is shocking. That's insane. It's deranged.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And that's right. I think it's totally crazy. However, I definitely have seen people online. I mean, articles online like saying, like, is this an issue with putting Shapiro on the ticket? Now, I can't believe this is a problem for the voters of the country. However, I think if you're one of the Democratic masterminds and you're trying to engineer enough electoral votes for Harris to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Like I said, you're trying to win that blue wall. You're trying to get not just Pennsylvania, but Michigan. And the problem that Biden had and now Harris has in Michigan is that the large Arab and Muslim population of Michigan is really against the administration's support. of Israel. Now, this is why Harris just snubbed Netanyahu when he came to Washington.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So they are immediately trying to reposition that issue. And remember, the margin of error in Michigan is like 2%. So if they can win back that vote by seeming to be more progressive on the whole Israel-Gaza war, then there's a big electoral advantage for them. So I have to wonder if this is where This talk about, you know, is it an issue for Shapiro to be Jewish on the ticket or whatever?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Again, it's nuts to me that we could be even having that conversation in this country. But it's possible that that is what's going on is it's like, can you win Pennsylvania but not lose Michigan?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
When John F. Kennedy ran for president, it was a big issue that he was Catholic. I mean, you guys don't remember this, but in 1960, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah. And specifically what people asked is, would he be loyal to the United States or be loyal to the Vatican and the Pope? You know, who was his ultimate authority? And he made it really clear, look, I'm going to do what's right for the United States. And he neutralized that issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I think that what matters about Shapiro or any VP is their views and their accomplishments, their policies, and whether he's Jewish or not really is secondary. Even if your principal concern is Gaza, there are still plenty of Jews who have a wide spectrum of views on that issue. So it is nuts to me that this conversation is seriously happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, that's nice to know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
That's nice to know. There was also another unhinged tirade that he had against me a few months ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Where he was commenting in the Ukraine debate and was responding to a Ukrainian partisan who, this guy is like a propagandist for Ukraine who was embedded in the Azov battalion. People may know what that is. In any event, Paul went out of his way. The thing is, I've never met Paul Graham. I don't know him. I've never done business with him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So it's just weird to me that he has this animus and this vitriol towards me. It's hard to know exactly what this is based on. I think that part of it is that he thinks he knows what happened at Zenefits. even though he wasn't involved at all. And he's just listening to one guy who's been nursing this vendetta for many years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And then other people are speculating that there could be other things involved. I don't quite know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
What is it that you guys want to know?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, I mean, look, that whole experience was easily the worst year of my entire professional career, having to deal with that mess that he created. And look, anybody can now say anything almost 10 years later in a podcast, but the situation there was thoroughly investigated by regulators who had subpoena powers, who did extensive discovery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
They looked at everyone's emails throughout the whole company. They also interviewed something like a dozen people under oath and took witness testimony from them. And then they sanctioned him, they fined him, and they published an account of what happened. I personally think it's a huge waste of time to be like rehashing events that are almost a decade old.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
But I guess I'm being forced to by this smear campaign that he and... Paul Graham have engineered against me. If you want to know what happened, just read what the SEC said, read what the other regulators said. There was only one person who was named as being aware of the misconduct. And there was only one person who was fined and held accountable by regulators.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
In fact, he was fined more than the company. Now, if he just said, yeah, look, I learned from that mistake, and I made some mistakes, moved on, and apparently he does have a successful company, so I don't really understand why he's so bitter. He seems to have like a, you know, he's like disturbed about it. Then it would be fine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I mean, there would be no reason to be talking about this, but the guy refuses to admit that he did anything wrong, and instead he's created this elaborate story that his departure from Zenefits wasn't related to massive compliance issues. And that somehow it was related to him seeing a sales target or being the victim of a coup. That's not what happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
This was a regulatory crisis that unfolded over many months and kept getting worse and worse. And we kept discovering new compliance violations. And this created a 50-state insurance investigation that could have shut the company down. And he controlled the board. He didn't have to leave if he didn't want to. He ultimately perceived that it was in his interest to leave and let us clean it up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And then he went on to go do this other startup, which I think he was planning to do all along. So his plan worked out for him, which is he left a big mess for us to clean up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
It was miserable and obviously pretty thankless. I did it for no compensation. I did it because, like you said, I had a lot of friends who invested in the company. I just thought it was the right thing to do to do this cleanup. The lawyer said it would take two years. We managed to get it done in one year. We got a clean bill of health from regulators.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
We had to remediate all the compliance failures. When I then handed the torch to the new CEO, we had $200 million in the bank and $60 million of ARR with a clean bill of health. You know, but I didn't know I'd have this like crazy founder like lobbing bombs at me the whole time. And frankly, if I had known he was going to do this, I would have just said, listen, man, you clean up your mess.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And he would have continued playing games and stonewalling the regulators. And it would have been a much worse situation for sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, all the cloud service providers are doing extremely well. I mean, cloud is still the future of software and the cloud service providers are still growing really strongly. On Wiz, I think the most likely explanation is that they just want to keep building this as a standalone company. I think they're probably also worried that they can't get the deal through.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I like that statement. And if we were just talking about somebody who had learned their lesson, this wouldn't even be an issue. This is like events that happened a decade ago. Such a waste of our time and energy to even be talking about it. The problem is that you have people, really we're talking about Parker and Paul Graham, who are trying to smear somebody as a way to- You. Yeah, me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Look, Parker has this very complicated story, and the whole purpose of it is to exonerate himself, to basically say that he didn't engage in any wrongdoing, and somehow he was set up. Okay, it's ridiculous. I mean, I don't have that kind of power over the SEC. The SEC, they sent us a list of people they wanted to talk to. I was not on the list.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And I was like, well, wait, don't they want to talk to me? I'm the new CEO of the company. And the lawyer said, no, your discovery was clean as a whistle. They don't have any questions for you. They only want to talk to people who they saw in the discovery there was an issue. So the regulators prosecuted. They basically conducted this investigation. I had no impact over that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
The multiples that we have right now are not that insane. I mean, I think the long-term median software multiple is around a seven. So, you know, you see here the mid-growth median 7.7. We're about tracking at... the historical pre-COVID mean. And we had that really frothy, bubbly period in 2020 and 2021, and that's clearly over.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
It was a very serious issue. This was not made up. So I just think it kind of defies belief to now say that this, you know, all the regulatory compliance issues which played out over months were not an existential issue for the company. It certainly was. But look, we have better things to talk about. Do you see Ali Resnick's tweet?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, I can speak to some of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I've talked to a few people who are involved in this. Look, I think what happened is that in the wake of October 7th, there was obviously a very heated debate online. PG is on one side of that. He got into it as supporters of Israel on the other side. They accused him of saying anti-Semitic things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
He took offense to that and basically went over their heads to their bosses of a couple of different VC firms, at least two that I know of, where he basically went to the heads of these firms to express his displeasure, I guess, with these exchanges. And I think the feeling on the part of the junior VCs, because the people he was going over the heads of were not senior partners or whatever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
These were lower level to mid-level VCs at firms, you can understand how they would receive that. The head of YC is going over- Yeah, Paul Graham is a giant, yeah. Yeah, so he's basically going to the heads of their firm to seek a correction in their behavior, even though this wasn't like a workplace activity. And so they certainly felt intimidated and silenced by that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, clearly there's a double standard here because PG doesn't like being called names on Twitter. Yeah. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
He doesn't like his use being labeled, and he's willing to take those debates offline, go over the heads, not talk to the people who said those things, but then go to their bosses, the heads of their firm, maybe not threaten them, maybe not say, I don't think he said fire this person or whatever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
But like you said, there's always an implication of retaliation because people understand the way that YC operates. And certainly those junior level VCs experienced it as a form of intimidation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Well, it's also like rather hypocritical when he's super sensitive about this type of thing. But then he's instigating this pylon when on this whole Zenefits thing, he's basically single source from a disgruntled founder who has this vendetta, who's been nursing this thing for years. He's never talked to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Like I said, he's never even met me, but he's willing to call me the most evil person in all of Silicon Valley. And then again, instigate this pile on with like all these other people from Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Yeah, exactly. And then I saw like other people from YC, like Michael Siebel, who I think is actually a really cool guy. He's awesome. Yeah. Yeah. And then he's tweeting that like I somehow I put up my founders who were there were a lot of founders who basically spoke up. And I actually said, including many founders who came out of YC, say, you know, actually, David's been a great VC to us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
And he's saying, oh, Saks must have put them up to it. No, I never asked anybody to do that. And a good reason why is I don't want to trouble my founders. Or drag them into this. Drag them into it. So I'm not going to make them do that. So I had nothing to do with that. But frankly, you know, old saying that every accusation is a confession. Uh-huh.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Maybe the reason why people at YC think that I might have done that is because that's kind of their playbook, is they create these online mobs. But what gives him the right to do that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Go for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I mean, I don't know if it's still growing at 100%, but I mean, I guess they're projecting... Even 50%, yeah, would be... Yeah, they're projecting a billion in ARR next year up from, what is it, roughly 500%. like that offer may not be that crazy. Again, you know, you're getting 10 times at a 30% average growth rate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
So, you know, let's say they get to a billion in ARR next year and then they're forecasting, you know, whatever it is the year after, you know, the 23 may be reasonable. So I can see why these guys would just want to go for it if they think they're building a big standalone company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Wet your feet. We need to get merch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I don't have a lot to say about them, except actually this is that that company has some murky connections to the deep state. And yeah, well, apparently their fingerprints were all over, you know, Hillary's bleach server. Then there's been other reports, which I don't know exactly what to make of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I can say this, that in the wake of this, Elon announced that he was removing CrowdStrike from any of his company's servers. Similarly, I had my IT department check and make sure that we didn't have it running anywhere and we don't. I'm just going to be frank. I don't trust this company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Deep state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
I'm going to wear a tinfoil hat today. I forgot. You believe what you want. That's what I believe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
What did you think about that reservation article thing? Oh, that's crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So all these closed models, which means open AI... and a bunch of these other folks, especially the ones that are sitting inside of these smaller companies, right? Snowflake has a model, I think Databricks has a model. There's a important question that has to be asked around the economic viability of these models in a world where open source is not only better and better funded,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
but they're iterating faster and the feature set is catching up to your needs. So the minute that SAC says he needs a longer context window, within a week, it's there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Yeah, I think this is like one of the... What do you think, J. Cole?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
It's just that Google can't afford to lose anything. Yeah. Everybody takes a point here and a point there. And all of a sudden, Google could be in the high 70s of search. And that would be economically disastrous for their stock. Yeah. You're going to have to make cuts. Why do you guys think the stock is down? Why is the stock down 16%? I have a theory as to why. Tell us your theory. Go for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
I think that there's a few times a quarter where you can really see the dispersion in the stock market between what I would call the smart money and everybody else. So using betting language, the sharps and the squares. And I think Meta was an example of the Sharps taking a line, which I think is very accurate. And Tesla was the other great example this quarter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And so if you look inside of Meta, and this Freeberg mentioned this earlier, I think Freeberg, what people really reacted negatively to was the total quantum of spending and the idea that it's misallocated, not to AI, but specifically to NVIDIA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And the reason is that, and we've mentioned this before, I've tried to talk a lot about this with Jonathan Ross from Grok, but AI is really two markets, training and inference. And inference is going to be 100 times bigger than training. And NVIDIA is really good at training and very miscast at inference. The problem is that right now we need to see a CapEx build cycle for inference.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And there are so many cheap and effective solutions. Grok being one of them, but there are many others. And I think why the market reacted very negatively was it did not seem that Facebook understood that distinction, that they were way overspending and trying to allocate a bunch of GPU capacity towards inference that didn't make sense. And so I think what people were saying is, hold on a second.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So far, your plays are perfect. It's everything we want you to do. We want you to scorch the earth. We want you to open source the headset, but we also want you to understand the difference between training and inference in a little bit more of a nuanced way. Build up the inference capacity, but spend a lot less money because you don't need to spend it on NVIDIA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And the reason is the sharps know that NVIDIA cannot do inference. And so I think that's why the stock is down this much. And I think it's important for people who care about AI, but also may traffic in NVIDIA to understand why the sharps think that. And I think several of us have tried to explain it now for the last couple of weeks, but it is miscast. And so you're overspending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Sharps love it. This is another one, sharps versus the squares. Why did the sharps love it? Why did it go up and everybody was so confused? And I think the answer is that he's actually executing exactly to plan. And so if you're investing in a stock, what you really want is a CEO to kind of stick to a plan that is well-known.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
So we don't have to actually guess what the plan is because he puts it out on the website. Look at the master plan part two. And if you start reading down, everything that he said he's going to do starting in 2016 is basically what it is. So let's take the first part. Right. What did he say in the first part? He said, hey, listen, guys, this is 2016. We're going to build a Model 3.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We're going to build a compact SUV, the Model Y. We're going to build a new kind of pickup truck. OK, check, check and check. Then he said, oh, by the way, we're also probably going to have to do a heavy duty truck and a high passenger density urban transport vehicle. So that's the robo taxi thing that he's going to announce in August. OK. check and check.
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And then he talks about the software and the investment in FSD and trying to get to a place where, you know, you can just have a much higher probability that it will save you from an accident and it'll keep you safe when you're driving your car, which will be a large driver of why people want to buy the cars themselves. And you can see like these FSD models. So if you're a smart capital allocator,
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what you actually saw was a dislocated stock price. What you saw was a plan that by and large, he's been executing on at a strategic level. Underneath, there's the vicissitudes. What are the vicissitudes? Sometimes you overhire, you need to trim some fat. Sometimes you overspend on CapEx. Now, he spent about a billion of CapEx's quarter on AI infrastructure, so H100s for training.
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But the market saw through it because that was a reasonable amount of money to spend on training for FSD. So you can start to see the tail of these two reactions. The Sharps looked at the capital allocation and said, okay, you missed by $2.5 billion this quarter, but that's going to create a buying opportunity because we think it's roughly mispriced.
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And we think it's mispriced because going back to this plan from 2016, this is all the things that we've been underwriting from $40 billion of market cap to $750 billion, and now we're getting a 40% discount to buy back in. So I think it's a really interesting moment to just contrast and compare what Sharps look at and then what the media breathlessly exaggerates.
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And I think what they wanted was to lionize the meta earning story, but the Sharps rejected it and they wanted to dump on Elon and the Sharps rejected that in size in both cases. And it's just a reminder to all of us, be very careful what you're reading. Because if you just took the headlines, you would have expected the two reactions to be exactly opposite.
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But when you vote with money, it's very clear and unambiguous because you actually move in the direction of accuracy. And that's what the stock market allows you to see. And I think this is a really interesting contrast to compare sharps versus squares here.
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ride sharing is number one, the absolute probably by an order of magnitude. And the reason I say that is in order for ride sharing and ride hailing to really work the way that they envision it, you will have level five autonomy and supported in jurisdictions where, again, if you just look at Part Deux, the whole point is you can summon a car from your app.
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And if you don't have access to a mobile phone, you can go to these bus stop equivalents and just press a button and the car comes to you. And so in that world, there's just so much value add in terms of passenger safety and sustainability for the environment and less traffic. It's a gargantuan game changer.
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What do you got, Sax, going around the horn here?
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Like, is it awkward when you tip $50 in ones like that? Like, doesn't it become really thick?
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I think it's a pretty obvious disruption if... So today in America, if you look at the energy infrastructure, the utilities keep raising rates. And they keep raising rates independent of what it costs to generate energy. There are 1,700 utilities in America. They are, by law, obligated to spend, I think in the next 10 years, about $2 trillion on CapEx.
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they will pass all of those costs plus a margin to consumers, even though in these next 10 years, the cost of generating an incremental unit of energy will be essentially free. So I think the very disruptive play is to take 100 million homes and make them mini utilities. Same one. What does it mean, make them utilities? You go to a website.
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Again, the biggest investment I've made is in a company called Palmetto. They are close to now the largest residential solar business in the United States, if not the largest already. Now, what do they do? You're a consumer, you can go and lease or buy, it doesn't really matter. And we give you a super cheap system that goes on top of your roof, plus a battery system.
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And all of a sudden, you're totally resilient and independent of the utilities. And we help change the laws so that every time you have excess energy, you can put it back into the grid and get paid, which is called net metering. So if you have 100 million of these mini utilities competing against 1700 incumbents that are forced to make huge investments and are mispriced,
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that's an upheaval of an enormous amount of market cap, but also an enormous amount of debt. There's like trillions of dollars of debt.
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So I've always thought a ginormous directional bet to make would be to go long the disruptor, the person that helps arm the rebels in this case would be the person that arms 100 million homes, and then eventually at some point just short the debt of these utilities because they won't be able to service them if enough people quit and don't need PG&E and everybody else.
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it'll be just massively, massively disruptive. So that's why I think that that market could be big. I like the... Optimist market.
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The only thing that I'll say is in my experience, when I've looked at these generalized robots, the conclusion that I came to, and I could be totally wrong, is I suspect instead of having a generalized robot, you have very specific use case robots that look differently.
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So for example, there's an example, Nick, you can throw a picture, but there's something called intuitive surgical, which is essentially a robot that operates on you. And if you look at that, it doesn't look anything like what you would think a robot would look like. It just looks like a ginormous machine.
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And so I suspect that there will be people that become experts in these vertical use cases, and that will limit the TAM for a generalized approach. I could be totally wrong, but that's sort of why I ranked them the way I ranked them. But I'm pretty convinced that Robotaxis are number one, and then this energy thing that upends these 1,700 utilities in America is number two.
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Yeah, it's almost, I think it's 18%. It's almost 20%. It's a huge number now.
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I mean, people die when these blackouts and outages occur. And also, like we saw in San Carlos here in the Bay Area, Nat gas lines explode. PG&E is responsible for forest fires. I mean, if you can do your part to basically get off these grids... use somebody like Palmetto or somebody else and just get solar Tesla and be done with it.
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And at least you're not contributing to some of these downstream errors.
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Yeah. I consider it... It's interesting you bring this up. You're creating plausible deniability, but it's still a bribe.
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So I think... I don't want to be a proponent of this, by the way, but bleep out his name, was saying that, Jason, with FSD, they're very strict that you have to be holding the steering wheel and stuff. Yes. But you can go to Alibaba and buy something that hacks that, right? It's a wait.
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No, no, no, no, no, no. I'm not promoting this. I'm just saying that it doesn't exist.
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Yeah.
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No, no, a remote safety driver. Remote, remote. But I have to say, watching this video, that is the coolest bloody thing. I mean, this is amazing. I'll be honest.
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Me too. I totally agree with you.
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But what is it?
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Just explain to me the market, guys. I'm not sure I get it. So there's Waymo and Cruise. It's Uber. But there's Waymo and Cruise, which are like, there's no drivers. And then there's Uber and Lyft, where there are drivers.
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That's the basic... Right? Is that? Yeah. That's right.
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Yeah. Have you taken one?
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Yeah. You have to download the Waymo app?
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I don't see non-competes having any value in any market except East Coast financial markets. I've heard of folks getting something called beach leave, typically in finance. These are Wall Street jobs, hedge fund jobs. So I know it exists there.
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Like if you leave hedge fund A and you're going to go to hedge fund B, they make you sit on ice for six months or nine months, garden leave, I think maybe they call it. And the whole idea is that you don't take any active market thoughts to your next job. For what Freeberg said, I just think the whole thing doesn't make much sense.
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I mean, like intellectual property is the least valuable it's ever been. right? More people develop things now via trade secret than patents. The whole patent system has become a little bit of a game. We just talked about open source, right? They have less and less value. So innovation is happening in plain sight.
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And so I don't think companies are actually thinking about this issue at all anymore. They're paying people because they need to pay more to get the best and brightest. So I think if you're hoping to rely on one of these agreements, if you're an employer, I think that you should just forget about them and just hire the best people, pay them the best, and if they suck, fire them.
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But you can do that now. I don't see it actually doing anything bad.
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No, no, no. I'm not disputing that it doesn't exist. I'm saying, where do you see it actually having negative repercussions in California? The point of the fact that it doesn't exist here is also seemingly that it doesn't mean anything.
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In that example, you'd still need to have come up with hundreds of millions of CapEx to implement it, whatever you know. So SACs, any thoughts? I just don't think these things mean anything.
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It just tends to be examples, Jason, over and over of markets that don't really matter that much relying on these things and markets that are dynamic and add value in humanity, just moving past them. So it probably makes sense for all of us to just go move past them.
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That's really well said. That's exactly what I was trying to say. That's well said.
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You guys know the story, right? Like Steve Chen, before he started YouTube, was an engineer at Facebook. And there was like, at one point, I remember being in some meeting where I was like, oh, I think we found an early version of the YouTube code on an old laptop that was a Facebook laptop that Steve owned. So I remember like the GC was like, I think we technically own YouTube.
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That's a good general counsel.
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Cannot use your work computer.
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Oh my God.
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Of course.
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You know, there's that very famous email that Steve Jobs sent to Bruce Chisholm. which goes something along the lines of, dear Bruce, it's come to my attention that Apple never recruits from Adobe, but it seems like Adobe is actively recruiting Apple employees. One of our practices have to change.
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Surf the web. Right.
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What an incredible... What an incredible... Are we doing a walk down memory lane of our Steve Jobs stories? Do you have one? I have two, but I... Give us one.
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when, when it was merged into AOL to create AOL music was this guy, Kevin Conroy, great guy. And Kevin basically got us runway to launch a 99 cent music download store. And we were able to use AOL's cards on file. So there was like 25 or 30 million credit cards. And we were able to use Warner Brothers Music Library because AOL had merged with Time Warner.
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And so we launched this 99-cent music store, and it performed phenomenally. And I went and I did demos for Walt Mossberg, Takara. I went to Apple, I showed James Higa, Eddie Q, Steve Jobs, all these guys, and AOL just couldn't do anything with the data.
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We kept pushing, Kevin kept pushing, but they were just so tied up in their own political nonsense, they wouldn't green light it becoming more than a beta. And then nine months later, the 99 cent download store launched on iTunes. And I was just like, oh my God, this is execution. And they had all the labels, And it was a thousand times better experience than we created.
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But it was the first time where I stumbled into something relatively accidentally and just got, frankly, owned by an organization that's just a thousand times better.
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He was the greatest. He was the absolute greatest. I have one other story, but I'm not going to share it. You know what segment people loved last week? I interviewed with him for a job.
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Right when I left Facebook.
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It's like so littered with my failures and my insecurities, but okay.
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When you're so damn successful, be self-deprecating. Share with your brothers. There was basically somebody at a well-known recruiting firm who pinged me and said, hey, there could be a consult. This is right when I was leaving Facebook. And I had a pretty large... project that never saw the light of day, which was this Facebook phone.
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Although people in the ecosystem knew that we were working on it. So, you know, Samsung and Intel were our partners and AT&T and all this stuff. Anyways, long story short, there was a rumor that they wanted to consolidate iPhone into one business unit, right? And at the time, it was kind of like very balkanized or whatever.
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And I got approached by a recruiter saying they're thinking of creating a role which is kind of like head of iPhone. And at that point, I was like, this is in 2011. And I was adamant that I would never work for anybody until I heard it was Steve Jobs. And I was like, I will do whatever he says. You were ready to bend the knee. Dude, I would have driven his car. I would have... Yes, sir.
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I would have driven that car. I was like... You'd be driving Miss Daisy?
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And I went through a couple of interviews. I'm not going to get into those details. And at the end of it, it was like, well... He's not going to become, he's not going to be the CEO. You know, he's going to become executive chairman. And so you'll be reporting to Tim Cook. And that's where that process died. They said I wasn't a good cultural fit for Apple in the new era.
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Now, and then it turned out what happened? Yeah, you would not have been.
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So then I went and I started Social Capital, but that was my only job interview that I had. when I was leaving Facebook, and it was, for me, I had the same reaction as Freeburg. I was like a kid meeting his, I don't even wanna call it idol. I think I was like a believer meeting Jesus. That's how it felt.
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It's time that famous clip of you asking him that question where you basically was looking at you like that's a very famous one, because that that you you really got the better of him, I thought, which is pretty good.
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Okay, you got it.
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800 million when I left.
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They're taking a play that we talked about, which makes a ton of sense, which is it's not a core market. but it's very important. The core money-making market for them is monetizing their family of apps. And so they're scorching the earth for these new markets so that the economics are not viable, which will, I think, allow a more robust ecosystem where they'll have more of a say.
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That was gross. That was gross. I've never had a problem getting a reservation at any restaurant in New York.
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Because I think up until this point, you could have said that they and Google were sort of lagging behind OpenAI. But I don't think that's the case. And by the way, this is the strategy that we talked about 16 months ago that these big companies should take. I just think it's worth listening to what we said and then basically what Zuck said just right now. Here we go.
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I think the thing to keep in mind is that the reason why the government is banning TikTok, and I'm totally speculating and guessing, has nothing to do with these silly little videos. But it is that the overwhelming majority of the people that download TikTok keep the microphone on, and it is an ambient passive surveillance device.
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And I think to the extent that a foreign government has access to whatever you hear ambiently and randomly while the app is not even being used is the real problem here. And so I think that that's effectively what this is, is a listening device into enough Americans. And I think that that's pretty scary to folks.
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The second thing is with respect to the actual product itself, in the absence of that algorithm, which I think is just incredible, as somebody who was a voracious user of that app until I deleted it, I don't think the product is much of anything. It's probably no better or no worse than shorts or reels or some of these other alternatives.
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So I don't see the economic justification for anybody who already has one of these assets to buy these things because the content is roughly the same now. It is the thing that makes that app is the algo. But the videos are everywhere. They're on YouTube. They're on Instagram. They're everywhere.
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So I don't see why anybody would pay a lot of money for this, especially in the absence of the algorithm. This is my honest thought. What do you think, Jacob?
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This is a black and white flashback. Chamath in a turtleneck. Go. I think that Google will open source their models because the most important thing that Google can do is reinforce the value of search. And the best way to do that is to scorch the earth with these models, which is to make them widely available and as free as possible.
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One quick thing. I think what Zach said is really interesting about them then going after Telegram. The big issue that I think Telegram has always had is that it is encrypted, but it has its own form of encryption that they rolled themselves, right? Like typically, I think WhatsApp and a lot of these other folks just use pretty standard signal.
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I think as well use SHA-256 encryption, which is like pretty standard. But there's always a fear that the US government actually can unencrypt that and has some kind of a backdoor. That was always the fear of SSG-256. And so Pavel Durov and his team basically rolled his own, which is also 256-bit symmetric encryption, but different standard altogether.
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And what people would say is, hold on, he has the backdoor to Sachse's point. So that was always the claim, counterclaim between these things of why Telegram was always painted in more of a sketchy corner. I'm not saying that it's true. And I think that if they go after it, I think it's because this underlying encryption model is something that we can't get access to.
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And so they'd rather just eliminate it to your dis-access point.
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That will cause Microsoft to have to catch up, and that will cause Facebook to have to really look in the mirror and decide whether they're going to cap the betting that they've made
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Me too. A hundred times worse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
That's so easy, by the way. Have we eliminated the FISA courts entirely? We don't need those anymore either? They can just do whatever they want?
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on arvr and reallocate very aggressively to ai that should be what facebook does and the reason is if facebook and google and microsoft have roughly the same capability in the same model there's an element of machine learning called reinforcement learning and specifically it's reinforcement learning from human feedback facebook has an enormous amount of reinforcement learning inside of facebook every click
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This is insane. Insane. This is ridiculous. These things will never pass.
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every comment, every like, every share, the huge companies will create the substrates. And I think they'll be forced to scorch the earth and give it away for free. Now you can see what Zuck said last week.
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All right, everybody, this is the World's Greatest Podcast. By the way, Jason, if you do decide in the end to vote for Biden, I'll send you some luxury tents that you and your kids could sleep in. You can tell them stories about how you voted for him. It's so brutal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
And... Is that the largest and most listened to podcast in the world?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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That is, I think, the definition of scorched earth. And he's running a really perfect play so far. He's open sourced the headset OS. He's opening sourced these models. He stopped training, I think, for Lama 3.5, was it? And now he's moved directly to Lama 4 just to try to head off GPT-5 at the pass. So what are we seeing? We're seeing the economic value getting disintegrated.
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There is no value in foundational models economically. So then the question is, who can build on top of them the fastest? And Jason, to your point, Lama was announced last Thursday. 14 hours later, Grok actually had that model deployed in the Grok cloud so that 100,000 plus developers could start building on it. That's why that model is so popular.
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So it puts the closed models on their heels because if you can't both train and deploy iteratively and quickly enough, these open source alternatives will win. And as a result, the economic potential that you have to monetize those models will not be there. And what that does is reinforce the existing economic moat that Facebook already has in monetizing their apps.
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Now, why the stock went down, I'd like to talk in contrast to Tesla a little bit later, because this has nothing to do with that. And it's more about squares versus sharps in the stock market.
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Oh, all the time. Yeah, sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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A pretty industrious kid, it turns out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, Sachs is elite. He's got the $100 bill pressed into his palm, shakes the guy's hand.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And by the way, you just said something really interesting before, which is, okay, there's a limitation, right? You mentioned the context window, which was a problem. I just found this thing today. They solved it. Now they're at 96K context. Yeah, that's amazing. So to your point, Sax, this market is moving so fast because you cannot compete with open source.
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Come around here. Let's present. So what do we have? Come on, you're not on camera.
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Well, if we look at previous performance as an indicator of future success, the answer is no, they're not going to cut spending. Most of the reports out say they're going to spend another $10 trillion in the next administration, independent of who you vote for. And I think that's actually what you have to think about here is where does all that money wind up, right?
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It's certainly not going to trickle down. And what's probably going to happen is it's going to find its way into equities. And that's why these equities are so high is because people are recognizing correctly that if we do spend another 10 trillion and go another 10 trillion into debt, that money winds up somewhere. Where does it wind up? government salaries, contracts.
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And if we get a tax cut as well, that's going to goose. And I think one party will do a tax cut and spend eight, nine, 10 trillion. The other party will spend 10 trillion and maybe raise taxes a little bit. It's going to net that into the same place. And then I think what we'll see on top of that is
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This is, it looks like a deep hole, 1986 Chateau Coutet. I mean, this looks like it's worth opening. I mean, it was in the rack that said don't open, right, Sean? Yes, sir.
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what I think could be cataclysmic contraction in white collar employment in the United States over the next four to 10 years next to administrations. And that's going to exacerbate this problem and create, I think, some social tension because we've had record low unemployment.
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And so even though people feel bad about the economy generally, and some of that is related to which parties, which party you're a part of and how you perceive the economy and all this data, But just brass tacks, you know, we had the lowest unemployment of our lifetime for the past five, 10 years. And it's been absolutely fabulous and salaries have gone up.
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And this is going to result in, I think, a little bit of austerity measures coming at some point, probably won't come in this next administration, but certainly the one after that is going to have to do some belt tightening. And we're going to have to address this issue because spending everybody in America having to pay their share of that interest alone is $3,500.
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I mean, let that sink in, you're going to spend for every member of your family $3,500 a year in interest, that's your part of it, take the 1.3 trillion, it's just a lot of money. And if that is the case, it's going to create a massive bubble in equities again. And then if you look inside of the big companies,
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Three or four years ago, Uber, Airbnb, Google, and Facebook had more employees or the same number of employees they have now while growing, those companies are all growing 20% year over year. So the earnings and the top line of these companies continue to grow while they have a static team size. This is like an extraordinary thing we haven't seen.
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So the two pieces here that we haven't seen before is what happens when you put another, I don't know, $20 trillion of debt into the US economy. And what happens when companies, the big ones stop hiring, and they just become wildly efficient and become wildly profitable.
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And this will be a renters, renters, you know, story where people who have equities and people who own property are going to do fabulous over the next five to 10 years, and then the 40% 50% of people who don't are going to really be feeling a pinch.
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Are you wearing my goddamn sweater?
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Well, that's no good, just pour it out. But you know what, pour half out, because I like the bottom half, the texture. So just pour half into the garden, hit it with the spinach, and then I'll take the bottom half. Thank you.
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I mean, I think trading is a mistake. Time in market is better than trying to time the market. And as I said before, where is all this money going to flow, all this spending?
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i don't think so and i i do think there's another thing that's worth sort of unpacking here because when you do see people feel like the economy is working against them all kinds of interesting movements start cultural movements etc and i think that's what we're seeing in this election is people who believe in capitalism and free markets and people who don't people who believe in free speech people who don't people who see themselves as victims victims and then other people who see them as creators and
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I slept so good. Let me tell you something. I will compare my sleep here tonight. The lady of Saks Manor just texted me and she would like me to stay there tonight. So, you know, when I'm in the Valley, I get a lot of different invites. I have to spread the wealth. So I'll be dining with the Saxes tonight and I may be staying at Saxes.
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I really study a lot of like what young people are doing. And I don't know if you guys are watching sort of the anti-work movement or the fire movement, which is financial independence, retire early. A lot of young people now are looking at financial markets, whether it's Robinhood or Coinbase, or prize picks, whatever market it is, young men especially.
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And they're saying, I need to control my destiny. I need to, this capitalism is not working for me. I need to own equities. I need to make trades. And I need to retire early and have experiences because the capitalist system is broken to some extent. And then there's another group of people who are just anti-work. And there was this term back in the day called NEET, not employed NEET.
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not being educated and not in training, basically, the people who are called the unproductive. And if you look at the peak, engagement and employment in our country, and Japan has similar trends, although they're probably 10 years ahead of us, it sounds sounds anything but neat. Yeah, it's not. But we peaked at 68 69% labor participation, and we're 10% off that maybe more, maybe we're at 61 or 62.
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I think a lot of people are going to give up because the debt is going to be so crushing that the logical thing to do, if you don't think you can get out from under it, might be to move in with your parents or two or three other people, tighten your belts and enjoy life and go skiing and go have experiences. And a lot of young people are electing to do that.
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In other words, they're opting out of the American dream.
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I call them gen bet. They're the generation that believes on... There's this subset of them. It's not all of them. A number of them are just quiet quitting, and they just don't believe in capitalism. And then there's this other group which are trying to get control. I call them gen bet because they just want to bet on themselves and...
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if they don't get wrecked by the financial markets trading options and doing price picks.
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These folks are the first generation who didn't go into debt in college and didn't buy into that. Like so they might the millennials ahead of them might have like taken the bullets, you know.
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Wait, did you say 50% of Gen Zers aspire to be influencers? Correct. Okay, 57% as their career, or just they want to be influential and build a brand around themselves. I wonder, that's what they want to do for a living. That's what they would like what they want their paycheck to be interesting.
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They want to be independent, and they don't think they believe this, they believe the system's rigged against them. And why wouldn't you think the system's rigged against you if you went 150 or 250k in debt, and you couldn't get a good job?
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What the... Don't worry about your wife. Oh, my God. Come on in. Amore, this part is great. Where is Nat? Hold on, I'm calling Nat.
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Yeah, one thing I did build and sell two out of my three businesses over the years But there are tens of millions of people making money in the long tail as a content creator and it's low thousands of dollars in some cases per month.
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But if you combine that with people who are gig economy workers and they don't believe in the system because they worked really hard, they got this job at Google, they went to the office, then they got laid off and nobody cares about them. Now they're getting dragged back into the office. They still have these payments.
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And then they look at this other system where, hey, they started to get 10,000 followers. They started to make $1,000 a month and $3,000 a month. They actually see a path to being independent of a system that has no loyalty to me. And that's what I hear from folks. And I think it's great.
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If we're not gonna be loyal as like corporations to individuals, those individuals are now responding and the antidote to that poison of just being laid off randomly or being dragged back to the office after you're told you can work from home, all that stuff, They now believe, hey, I can be independent, and then you have to fight to get my services. And I think that's what this is about.
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We're going to talk about Starbucks later, and I think that's a big part of the Starbucks problem. Having a side hustle makes you anti-fragile. You have other sources of income, and you can tell your boss to F off. And that's what young people are doing. I've seen it. I've seen people just quit jobs and just say, you know what? I've got other ways to make money. And I don't have a big burn rate.
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And so that's smart for young people to do that. And I think my advice would be to build your brand, be as independent as possible, and to make things in the world and show people what you made. That's the best thing you can do.
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Just moderate the show. Well, no, I was just, I was going to be traveling and I wanted to do a good job. And I, you know, I thought maybe you, you would love to get your chance at moderation. So. Lead us off here, Fearless, Jay Freiberg.
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That's interesting. I had a couple of my startups get offers. I've had three or four secondary offers in the last two weeks I've had to deeply consider, and they weren't like 75%. What kind of companies? Let's see. Two are SaaS, and then one I can't say because it would be too easy to guess. But the bottom feeders went from offering like an 80% discount to now a 25% discount.
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You know you're not allowed to sell your shares and all in, right? I'm trying. I'm trying. Brad Gerstner's bought 7% so far. So I'm quickly offloading to Gerstner as much as I can.
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He's going to own 7%. He gets 16 minutes per episode. You know what? If he'll moderate, I'll have him. I mean, this is moderation going, okay, or should I jump in and save the show?
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This is definitely the high end of normal. Nick, if you pull up the PE chart, this is the obvious one to look at is not just how dramatic the stock market peaks are, but the price to earnings ratio. And it's at the high end of normal at like, I don't know, for a 25 PE ratio on average.
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We've seen this. Austerity measures in Europe were pretty hard for people in Greece and Spain to get their heads around. I think Americans are going to have to get used to we can't just spend and give handouts constantly. On the equity side, though, there's also the concept, Sax, that you can cut spending and increase earnings and that that's well within your control as a CEO and board.
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And that's exactly what we've seen coming out of COVID. And I said it here a couple of years ago. I think the earnings are going to do well because people have this other lever and they can just turn the dial and reduce spending and increase earnings. And it's like, oh, that's painful. But it's not so painful that it's not worth doing. And so corporations have gotten religion.
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around cost cutting and austerity and increasing earnings. The question is, and individuals have to, so they're pushing out buying new cars and spending on travel. So then what happens? When does the government get that austerity that companies and individuals are forced to do? And that's the problem you keep talking about, Freiburg, is this entire election cycle is about who can give more free .
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Enough with the free shit. Like somebody's got to be an adult in the room and say, we don't have any more free shit left.
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Do you think it's over, J. Cal? I'll go with Nate. I mean, I think Nate's probably the best thinker on this, who I think puts a lot of effort into it. And if he says it's 50-50 with a slight advantage to Trump, I think I would go with his gut. But he's saying don't trust anybody. I don't trust the prediction markets.
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And I think the prediction markets are closing that gap as we get closer because they are easily manipulated. Polymarket is only offshore, right? The U.S. market is not allowed to participate in polymarket. So it's all foreign investors. Now, of course, Americans could be putting money overseas somehow and using foreign accounts to place these bets.
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I'm guessing if you were a sharp and you really want to make money, that's what you would do. So I don't know what percentage of it.
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It's a crypto based site. So you get the benefit of like, you can track some amount of this on blockchains and then eventually find the person. But because it's crypto as well, you can also hide yourself pretty well with tumblers and other systems. So I would discount Polymarket a bit. It's probably not as extreme as it seems, but it does seem like
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kamala has not helped herself with the interviews they haven't been great and um you know it is a toss-up and so so any surprise yeah any october surprise still coming i mean there's been a few attempts the last couple days i mean it seems like the rhetoric for the last 24 hours there have been some really gnarly ones that we shouldn't give it i don't think we should give any credence to but
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some republicans have been coming out talking about like a really gnarly one about the republican side and I mean, it's not much more gnarly than other things that have been said about Trump already and judgments that Trump is against him already for $100 million. So it's in that vein. But I do think that that looks to me like it's cap.
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And I think there's going to be a lot of fake news, maybe even deep fakes that come out, you know, in the last week or two. So I think people should not trust anything they see on social media. Be very careful with that information.
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The good news is we might drink some tequila. Sex. We might have some tequila. So you have something to look forward to. And you get to see your friends. You get to see your friends. That's worth it, right? Say yes, David. This is where you say yes. No comment, he says.
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Pandemic was his favorite holiday of all time. What's your favorite holiday, Zach? Pandemic. Can we have that back?
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And then in terms of thinking about why people believe that Trump is an existential threat to democracy, I encourage everybody who's a fan of this podcast to go back to episode 16 of the All In podcast. And that's the episode where we all reacted the week of January 6th.
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And we all had great consensus amongst us that we thought this was one of the most disgusting, horrific days in the history of the country and that Trump was trying to overthrow the election results and that he was doing so in a non-democratic fashion.
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I know some people have re-underrated or changed their positions, but I encourage you all to pause this episode and go back and listen to our very thoughtful discussion on episode 16 of the All In podcast, because we were scared as well.
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Bring back the pandemic. Sox, are you serving Wagyu tonight?
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Yeah, and that's fine. That's your belief. But I do think there's another group of people who agree with your original assessment.
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Yeah, listen to what I said.
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And listen to what Zach said and listen to what Freebrook said. I thought we had a very productive discussion when it happened. I think people have memory hold it.
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I would agree with that. We're going to make it through whatever. Hold on, let me just give one thing. To your point, Shema, since I am challenging you with that episode 16 call-out, I do hope that whoever wins, we all support that person to do the best they can for all Americans. And that's always been my commitment, and I did it the last two times. And we will survive this one.
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Well, you know, I talked to Chef, and he said Morel's not in season, but we are on the tail end of Black Truffle, so we have that locked in, but we're too early for Morel's, obviously. That's a spring. Okay, Jason. We're going to miss White Truffle.
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I don't think we'll survive two or three of these cycles if we spend $10 trillion each time.
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I mean... Let's be honest. A picanha is an underrated cut of meat. People say it's like a serviceable meat, but when cooked properly, with proper technique, it will stand right up there with a ribeye or a New York strip.
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What's a picanha?
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I mean, it's a very simple way to do it. Number one, the border got out of control. We've shut it down already, and we're going to tighten it even more. Number two, the stock market's out of record for a reason. Number three, the employment is at the lowest it's ever been in our lifetimes. This is as good as it gets, folks. And if you go with the other guy, look at what he did on campaign manager.
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Let me even finish. Number four, this person overturned Roe v. Wade. That's what they're doing. And his VP candidate has said he wanted a national ban. They walked that back. But if you're a woman, you shouldn't trust them. And number five, obviously, you saw what happened on January 6th. He'll do it again. And you got the job, Jason. They just said that over and over. And listen, I'm not Biden.
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Biden obviously needs to retire. He was a great president. He was a great vice president. We thank him for his service. I'm completely different. I have a different approach to all of this. And Trump is a wild card that this country doesn't need at this time. The end. And they would win. But I don't know who's advising her. It's the same thing with Trump.
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I think Trump could have just gone right to the middle. And when he was Trump 2.0, he should be up 20 points on her. The fact that he's not up 20 points or 15 points on Kamala and that this is a dead heat, I think is crazy. Trump's the easiest candidate to beat. Kamala is the easiest candidate to beat. I wonder who's running both of these campaigns.
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Yeah, I think that's fair.
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To handle the border is just so simple. She could just say, what worked then is not going to work now. We've filled up and we just, Trudeau just did a tweet. Hey, we're taking a pause for two years. That's all she's got to do. We're taking a pause for two years on the border. We obviously, it got out of control. The end, we'll move on to the next issue.
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Your doom loop was a good call.
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It's got a fat cap on it, which can sometimes be a little overwhelming for people, but Sean did a great job of kind of meeting us halfway, so it wasn't so fatty, just a nice layer of fat, crisped perfectly, cooked to perfection. Carrots were great.
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Have you guys seen this? I go to Starbucks on the regular. And I think this really is just a case of founder versus bean counter. It reminds me of Boeing or even Apple with their inability to produce new products post the Steve Jobs era. pipeline of products, and if you, has anybody read Pour Your Heart Into It, Schultz's biography?
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It's absolutely fantastic, and he really had an obsession with user experience, like writing people's names on the cups was a Starbucks innovation, remembering people's names, empowering the green aprons was like a big part of this, and then once he was at it and the bean counters came in, and they just got all about efficiency. A much smaller number of baristas at the store,
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ordering your drink through the app, and just trying to make these grind it efficiency decisions, as opposed to the experience ones. And I think the Starbucks experience starts and begins with the baristas. And that's the main problem.
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If you've gone to a Starbucks over the last couple years, sometimes you go in, and there are literally 50 drinks from the, like, I'm not kidding, like 50 drinks on the pickup counter. And then this huge line, if you come in person, And it's the most impersonal thing. And the stores are a wreck. They're disgusting. They look like a truck stop.
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And the whole point of Starbucks was to create this third space, this beautiful place that was welcoming with gorgeous lighting. And the baristas were supposed to make you hang out and enjoy yourself there. And they lost that. And all you have to do is read Schultz's book and do exactly what he did. Now, there are a lot of other issues there.
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around the competition for Starbucks employees that I think are super important.
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I had no notes. I talked to Sean after I had no notes. Okay.
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I think you want to maintain the core is the key. You don't want to give up the core. And the core was having a great in-store experience. And I think that is not what you get when you go there. Putting the sugar aside, It is, I think, like going for ice cream for kids. So my kids will pick if they want to go for ice cream or Starbucks.
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And to your point about the Sugar Chamath, it's basically the same profile. And it's a great place to get breakfast, I'll tell you that. You know, the egg bites and the scones are great.
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Oh my God, the burnt sugar apple.
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You're a New York State guy?
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Yeah. Oh my God. What? Oh, that's disgusting. You guys are savages. I think you just lost like, I think you just lost three swing states by saying you want to overcook your shrimp steak.
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But it doesn't it argue towards the original business freebird that going there and having a cup of coffee and hanging out leisurely with your friends and having a conversation and it being a third space is the core value prop. And maybe the sugary drinks maybe will fall out of fashion.
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Shout out to Raoul's and Balthazar, two best steak au poivre in Manhattan, in my estimation. Okay, steak au poivre. Let's get started. Welcome to... Why don't we call an audible tonight and go for steak au poivre? Yeah. Just throw out the miso cod and the Wagyu and let's just redo it.
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It's like impossible. In some ways, both of these businesses are victims of their own success. They reach market saturation. They reach their natural audience and then some, and they've just got to figure out what to do next, and the adjacencies are hard to find. Vision pros are hard adjacencies.
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Stop changing the interface, Apple.
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I think they're trying to change things for change. One of the things Amazon's gotten correct and other services like eBay and Craigslist is when you have an interface that works and billions of people rely on it, you have to be very, very subtle in making changes to it. And they made a wholesale change to the Photos app and it did not work.
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That's when you know you failed as a product manager when people want the old thing. But isn't this just so lazy? Something's not right. Yeah.
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The control center is what he's showing and the control center is massively confusing. It's like changing where the lights are in your bedroom and like... Okay. Yeah.
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Do it again and say you put in heavy cream. You're going to get kicked out of MAGA. This is horrible, Sax. You cannot be ordering oat milk and be MAGA. They don't have nut milks at Mar-a-Lago.
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Don't touch it. I'll talk to her at lunch. I'll talk to her at lunch. She's putting a sundress on.
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How outrageous.
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You did a good job.
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It is. You know what? I did some shopping while I was here. I did a little shopping. So I just, I filled up. These ASAPs are great because I don't have these at my house. I have ivory soap, so I got a couple of these from the guest room.
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I think the thing is, look, if you think about the pendulum of culture in Silicon Valley, we used to have a very tough culture of founder-led businesses where there was extremely high expectations. And if you transgressed, it was very punitive.
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And then the pendulum swung all the way to the other opposite end where you had this like coddling daycare type approach that existed for like the last 15 or 20 years. And probably what OpenAI is is an example of a company that needs to be run a little bit more like the former but stuck with a bunch of people that still pull it towards to be the latter.
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And that's the cultural tension that they're going to have to sort out because in order to be this incredible bastion of like AGI and innovation, I suspect that it's going to look more like a three-letter agency in terms of security and protocols in the next five or 10 years, then it is going to look like the Googleplex. And I think they just need to own that.
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And this is probably a little bit of an insight into that tension. And they're going to have to go more in that direction. I think it's a good insight. You're not going to be allowed to build these incredibly crazy world-beating technologies where people are running around in an eight-seater bicycle. It's just not going to work, guys.
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I think it's a really incredibly fun moment if you're involved in anything AI-related, just because it shows the level of investment that NVIDIA's customers are making into making this new reality available for everybody, right?
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So when you're spending effectively $100 billion a year on the capex of chips, and then a couple hundred billion more on all the related infrastructure, and then another couple hundred billion more on power, you're talking about half a trillion to three quarters of a trillion dollars a year being spent to bring AI forward to the masses. So I think that's the really positive take.
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The other exciting thing is if you're on the other side of the Nvidia trade, which is you're working on something that does what they do cheaper, faster, or better, it's also really exciting because at some point the laws of capitalism kick in, right? We've talked about this. When you are over-earning so massively,
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The rational thing to do for other actors in the arena is to come and attack that margin and give it to people for slightly cheaper, slightly faster, slightly better so you can take share. Yes. So I think what you're seeing and what you'll see even more now is this incentive for Silicon Valley, who has been really reticent to put money into chips. really reticent to put money into hardware.
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They're going to get pulled into investing in this space because there's no choice. You have a company that went from $100 billion in market cap to $2.5 trillion in four years. It's just way too much value that is there to then be leaked back. The interesting thing to remember is During the PC revolution, which is really mostly the 90s, right?
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It ended in the late 90s, I would say like 98, 99, right before the dot-com bubble took over. Intel's peak market cap was, I think it got to about $200 billion. And then their average growth rate from 1998 to today was negative 1.4% a year, right? So it went from about $200 billion to about $130 odd billion. And why? It's not that Intel was a worse company. But it's that everything else caught up.
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And the economic value went to things that sat above them in the stack. Then it went to Cisco for a while, right? Then after Cisco, it went to the browser companies for a little bit. Then it went to the app companies. Then it went to the device companies. Then it went to the mobile companies. So you see this natural tendency for value to push up the stack over time.
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And in AI, we've done step one, which is now you've given all this value to NVIDIA, and now we're going to see it being reallocated.
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So, right now, what you do is you speculatively bet on anything that kind of like, quote unquote, rhymes with NVIDIA. Yeah. AMD is ripping, the companies that make HPM is ripping. So all of that stuff, the folks that make optical cables, this Japanese company that I found that makes like the high bandwidth optical cables ripping.
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So anything related to that ecosystem right now is at all time highs. But at the same time, What you find now is every other day when you wake up and read the trades in Techland, you find that there's a company that's gotten seeded with $5 to $50 million to create a new chip.
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You're also starting to see folks that are working a little bit above the stack and build better compilers, things that will allow you to actually build once, run in many different compute environments. So all of this stuff is starting to happen. At some point, the spread trade will be that NVIDIA loses share, even though revenues keep compounding to these upstarts. Yeah.
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I think NVIDIA, this is to build on Sax's point, is going to get pulled into competing directly with the hyperscalers. So if you were just selling chips, you probably wouldn't. But Saks is right. These are these big, bulky, actual machines.
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Then all of a sudden, you're like, well, why don't I just create my own physical plant and just stack these things and create racks and racks of these machines? And go head-to-head with AWS instead of selling to them. It's not a far stretch, especially because NVIDIA actually has... the software interface that everybody uses, which is CUDA.
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So I think it's likely that NVIDIA goes on a full frontal assault against GCP and Amazon and Microsoft. That's going to really complicate the relationship that those folks have with each other. But I think it's inevitable because how do you defend? It's kind of the Apple problem. How do you defend an enormously large market cap? You're forced to go into businesses that are equally lucrative.
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Now, if I look inside of compute and look at the adjacent categories, they're not going to all of a sudden start a competitor to TikTok or a social network. But if you look at the multi-hundred billion revenue businesses that are adjacent to the markets that Nvidia enables, the most obvious one is the hyperscalers, which are multi-hundred billion dollar revenue businesses.
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So they're going to be forced to compete. Otherwise, their market cap will shrink And I don't think they want that. And then it's going to create a very complicated set of incentives for Microsoft and Google and Meta and Apple and all the rest. And that's also then going to be an accelerant.
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They're going to pump so much money to help all of these upstarts, to your point, Jason, chip away and nip at the Achilles heels of NVIDIA until they fall.
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Tesla's making chips. Yeah.
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He looks amazing.
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No, no, no. His balls are plastic.
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His literally had brass put into his balls. No, all of our balls have plastic, apparently.
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I'm going to go out on a limb and speculate that a lot of the big numbers that we use to gauge how we should feel about things in today's day and age are pretty brittle. And fragile and may actually just be totally wrong. So what's an example? So for example, if you look at something like non-farm payrolls, right?
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So the first Friday of every month, you get this report that comes out from the Department of Labor and it shows where unemployment is. But how do they calculate that? Do you think that they have a real-time sense of exactly every person in that month that entered the workforce or exited the workforce? No. They do a survey and then they extrapolate.
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And if you do that survey incorrectly, and Jason, you've commented on this before, for example, if you don't capture adequately the number of people that are on the sidelines and never joined the workforce or the number of people that are part of the gig economy, so they are kind of working, you get an inaccurate sense of where the real economy is.
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I think that GDP is somewhat similar because if you just break down what GDP is, so Nick, there's a very simple pie chart I sent to you. What is GDP? It's the sum of four things. Most of it is what people spend. Okay. Then the next big chunk is what companies and governments spend, and then the last is what we export to other countries.
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So let's just pause for one second and think about what do you think happens when rates are zero versus when rates are at 6%? People spend a lot more. Well, people tend to save when interest rates are high. Just the natural thing, like why would I buy a pair of these Nike shoes? I'll just put it in the bank, I get 6%.
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But when the bank pays you zero, you're like, ah, let me buy these Air Force Ones and move on, right? It turns out it's the same for companies. Companies find it easier to invest when rates are at zero because it's cheaper. It's much more expensive because they're borrowing money at 6% versus at 0%. Or more. Corporate gets charged a higher fee, right? Yeah.
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Then when you have high interest rates, you have a currency that appreciates. It makes exports less attractive to other people, which means then you become an ad importer. Okay, so what is the last thing that's left? The last thing that's left is government spending. And you have to ask the question, what should governments do when rates are high?
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There was a chart I published in my annual letter, if you just go to that for a second.
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And then I just wanted just to highlight that when interest rates are very high, all of a sudden governments are faced with this very difficult problem, which is, oh man, I have to spend a ton of money on interest. Just like if you had a bunch of credit cards and all of a sudden the interest rates went up. So the choice is twofold. Do governments spend less?
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But unfortunately, it turns out that our governments in America, they just keep spending more and more. So even if net interest income is small, even if net interest income is high, they're just like, forget it, the taps are on. So what does this all mean? I think what it really means is that we do a very poor job of measuring all these dynamics together.
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And so I actually trust the survey data of these individuals more than I trust the GDP report. in the sense that I think it more accurately captures this dynamic. Rates are at 6%. People are saving more. They're not getting paid more. Things are costing more. The government is giving you free money, so you kind of feel like everything is moving.
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So the GDP measurement, the way that it's classically done, shows that, wow, we grew at 3% or 4%. But the average individual American isn't feeling that. They're actually feeling that they have less money.
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So I would actually go with them and actually say, if we don't revisit this thing from first principles, we're going to get this dynamic where we think one thing is happening, but the actual exact opposite is happening. In this case, I do think we're in a quasi-synthetic recession.
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Because when you spend... Go back to that McNugget chart. I just want to see what is it end of 2019. So this is basically you'd want to look at the four year stock price, right? So like these guys have jacked up prices. Massively. If you look at what's happened to the stock, the stock is way up.
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It's kind of been they've been very motivated and rewarded as a company for just rewarding the shareholder and kind of screwing over the customers.
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You know, because she doesn't exist. Oh, back to the general open AI.
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You cornered the market on them.
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I went to Sagona's. You sent your assistant? No, Nat and I go to Sagona's every week. A, because we like buying our own fruit. Yeah. But also B, because our kids like to do it and they like to see what things cost and they like to pick stuff. But, you know, this sweetest batch was seven bucks. For how many strawberries is that, by the way? 12 strawberries in there?
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Well, so here's what I'll tell you, quite honestly. I'm like, I think that you need to put these guys... on notice. Oh, on blast. The perfume, so the nose, just like, it's incredible. The aroma, yeah. The smell is, the aroma, it's just absolutely incredible. Yeah. But to be totally honest with you, the mouthfeel and the sweetness is not what this label would imply. Yeah.
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What were you expecting in terms of mouthfeel? I was expecting something juicier, more succulent,
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Did you do tasting notes? No, I've been texting Friedberg about this for months. I am a connoisseur of fruit, okay? It's very important to me. I like good fruit. So, you know, my wife and I go and find good fruit for our family. And it's really expensive. And even this over promises and under delivers. So Freeburg, if you can land a GMO strawberry, I'm going to put it in my belly.
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Give me a GMO strawberry for your book. Twice as big, three times as sweet. Get in my belly.
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I mean, she doesn't exist. Of course it's a digitally altered version of ScarJo. And they got caught. Okay. Cookie jar.
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By the way, if you want to replace GDP, there was a very good article in the Wall Street Journal a few weeks ago about how there's been just a total breakdown in what these high-level numbers say, kind of what we've been saying and how Americans feel. They introduced a different score. Well, they gave it publicity. It's not their score, but it's something that they call the core score.
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What that does, I'll just read it to you just so you can understand it. It's a county level index of wellbeing using measures of economic security, economic opportunity, health, and political voice. And so the lowest possible score is zero. The highest possible score is 10. As it turns out, when they use this across every county in America, the distribution is basically as follows.
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The most quote unquote prosperous county is Falls Church, Virginia, which is a 7.86 out of 10. And the lowest county is Jim Hogg County of Texas. which has a score of 2.25. So to the extent that you want to start to look at granular measures, this is one. I'm not going to advocate for it, but it's an example. But what do you notice in here?
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What I notice is that there's a lot of patches of like meh to not good in most parts of America. And so other than a very few small pockets where people feel great, most of the country is sort of dissatisfied. And I think that that's a really important thing to internalize.
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He wasn't responsible. Once the seal has been broken, I think it's fair to say both sides of the aisle now believe that they can give away an enormous amount of money. Absolutely. There's nobody that feels like they have a responsibility to stop. But I think what Sachs is right in the sense that, so if you take that as a constant, right, that there will always be handouts now of all kinds.
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There'll be different flavors depending on whether it's a Republican or whether a Democrat.
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It's all, so then what I'm saying is- That's my point. This abstraction though doesn't solve what's happening now because this free money is in the system. It's constantly in the system. It comes in different waves. So people should feel better. The fact that they don't in the face of this constant money train, I think is actually quite alarming.
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This is, I think what the point is, which is we are economically in a very complicated moment in the sense that there is no pandemic to blame. There's no economy that's totally shut down. In fact, there's an economy that seems to be moving, but leaving an enormous number of people behind.
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So however it has been structured, just sitting here today in 2024, it's broken for more people than it's working for. Yeah.
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Let's talk about my balls, boys.
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If you scroll up to the top- Look at the, wait, look at the Chipotle chicken burrito. Oh my God.
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Freeburg, why would the chicken nuggets from Wendy's though be so... Is it because they are eating?
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And so then we're eating the chicken, so we're eating the plastic.
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These are the things like, look at Annie's. First of all, I really dislike Annie's labeling and packaging. I think it's very ugly, so I've never bought it for that reason. But I know that there's a lot of private equity moms that buy Annie's because it's supposed to be better for them.
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And so the problem is you see organic. When you go, like, again, we go to Drager's. That's typically where we go. Sometimes we go to Whole Foods, but we go to Drager's and Sagona's. That's the places we go to in our neighborhood.
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And when you go and you look at these things like prepared meals, as an example, the thing that has always attracted me to Annie's is because it is positioned as it is cleaner and better for you. And you see everybody buying it. And what you actually see sitting on the shelf that's left over is actually the Chef Boyardee and the Campbell's.
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And I always thought to myself, I won't buy Andy's because I actually don't like the label, to be honest. That was really why I just deeply disliked the packaging. But it turns out it's the absolute worst for you.
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I think, look, here's the thing. This company is going to go down in the history books. In one part, because the technical inventions that they've created are just next level, and frankly, created an entire industry. And I think they deserve a ton of credit for that. But they're also going to be written in the history books for two other things that are probably less aspirational.
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I think the first is that there's just all kinds of dust-ups and unnecessary drama that just seem to kick around every few weeks or months. And then the second is the sheer quantum of value capture that the employees have seen through secondaries before a fully functional business has been really created. And so I think it explains why folks circle the wagons consistently.
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First of all, I really appreciate that you did this. I think it's so important. We talked about microplastics a little bit ago. J-Cal moved his whole family away, I guess, a few years ago from plastics. I've started to do it four or five months ago.
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It's in the supply chain is your point.
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This is what I was going to say. I think our food supply, I think we should just say it out loud. is totally corrupted. And I think there's all of these other factors we look at, the rise in the use of SSRIs, the lack of sexual function in young men, the lack of sex, the low birth rate.
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I think these are all related and part of it is the food supply and part of the food supply problem is the fact that it is corrupted by these materials that should never be in our body.
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That's a guess, but I honestly think it's the truth.
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Every part of our industrial supply chain- I hear you, but the concentration, I'm going to guess that the concentration, when you actually put it in your body, and then your intestines and your organs are bathed in this stuff, I'm going to guess that the food supply has a huge part to do with this.
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Let me say it in a way that maybe you will agree with then. We need to fix something. My starting point would be the food supply.
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I think it's a very rational organization. They're technically ahead of everybody else. A lot of people want to put in money at crazy prices. A bunch of that value is transferred immediately to the employees who circle the wagons and do what's necessary to keep the taps flowing. And I think that that explains the whole thing.
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That was really, really well done. You nailed it. We were workshopping that before the show. I was like, what is bofas? Bova deez nuts. That's awesome.
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Oh my God. Oh, where's the air horn, Nick? Play the air horn. No, no, okay, let's get serious here for a second. I have a real question. Part of the thing that I think is broken is that I think somewhere along the way we got screwed up in how food is labeled, right? And then it was gamed effectively, right?
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So for years, even when I was growing up, I thought you should not buy food that was high in fat. as an example. And little did I know I was ingesting all these sugars as a substitute to fat. It was a total mistake. Does the labeling need to become simpler and focus on these things that are just fundamentally carcinogenic for us? One, two, three.
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are there like lawsuits that need to happen a la cigarettes where you kind of connect the dots between these phthalates and a bunch of these diseases? Because it just seems like we are, people have thrown their hands in the air for years, right? Some people say autism and diet are correlated, right?
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Other people, so there, you know, Crohn's, the rise of Crohn's, there's so many of these conditions that there is a cohort of people that attribute most of the reason the pathology of the disease exists to food. So what do we do? Or pesticides, right? Yeah, that was in there too.
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No, these are phthalate-free because these are from the 1400s. They didn't have that back then.
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These are collectors items, bro. These are, these are from an era where that's something.
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And I think that that explains many Silicon Valley companies, quite honestly.
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It's baby cash. Yeah.
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I'm trying to hone you into this one area that I actually, I get the tires and the this and the that. I'm trying to get to something that I fundamentally care about. I have young children. I feed them food every day. I don't trust my food supply. I've never really trusted it.
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And this kind of stuff adds to this body of evidence where I'm worried that if my kids go through some kind of an issue, at the core of it will actually be something dietary. And it's typically overlooked by modern medicine because you'll treat it symptomologically. You'll try to give it some kind of pill. It's not how you treat a lot of these things. It could turn out.
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where restructuring someone's diet can actually have an enormous impact. So I'm just trying to figure out what is something that we can all start to do to get a handle on this because you're putting food in your body every day.
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I think that's laudatory but too complicated. I want something simpler, which is like, can we get a law passed so that chickens cannot eat certain kinds of food that are known to be high in phthalates?
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Whoa, whoa. No ditty. No, but the real issue is not that. It's like when the girls in your family have puberty younger and younger, and you're like, why is that happening? Or inconsistent periods. Or when the boys go through these weird moments where they're not really growing.
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I'm just telling you.
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I think the thing that everybody could get focused on is how can you correct at least the marketing versus the reality in our food supply. You know, a different example, I remember Nat telling me something which was along the lines of like hormone free is something that's marketed, but like chickens have been hormone free since like the 50s.
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But it's like there's some latent hormones left inside of them. And then some of the feed is really poorly constructed. And you should be focused on like air chilled versus water chilled or whatever. There's just so much bullshit out there. And so I think it's hard if you're like trying to take care of your family.
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Make sense of it all. It's just like, it seems impossible.
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I find this super frustrating because it's something that I really care about my, like what I eat.
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And it came from a place where a lot of disease in my family and then I was overweight when I was young. And so I just want to kind of like toe off. No, I mean you eat.
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No, I know Jason, but my takeaway is there's going to be a lot of phthalates in my balls. Yes, absolutely. Despite all the stuff that I do, I'm no better off than somebody eating at Wendy's in the end of the day. And I feel like, well, what is all that time and expense and difficulty? It's not worth it.
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I think you're right. And I think that's why you see all of these kinds of diseases, these chronic and acute conditions just ticking up. Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick.
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I haven't seen it.
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I'm going to find one.
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Yeah. There's a compilation of YouTube, on YouTube, of all these Austin Powers moments of Austin Powers getting kicked in the balls. Yeah, bad news.
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So you're in the you're in the much ado about nothing on this card.
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So do you think if she if she sues open AI, do you think it should just get thrown out? It's not a real case.
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No, no, no. I'm not saying that. I'm asking you more that, yeah, even if they find it, your point is it shouldn't matter. My point is, do you think that it should be thrown out?
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I'm in the middle of this crazy thing. With Facebook, and they've been doing a very good job, the team at Meta, Ashley, thank you. But hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of automated accounts pretending to be me selling all kinds of random stuff. It's predominantly on WhatsApp and Facebook and Meta. And I don't know what to do because we work together with them. We shut it down.
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I've actually had to reactivate my Facebook and Instagram accounts, which were dormant. so that we could actually have them be verified, so that then it's easier to shut them down. But it is an impossible task when somebody's impersonating you to fight it. At least in my experience, it's been a month and it's just like every hundred we take down, another thousand.
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Well, didn't Meta use Morgan Freeman when Zuck created an AI or something as a project? Do you guys remember that? Wasn't Morgan Freeman the voice?
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I've said this before.
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Using a computer to probabilistically copy something is still copying something. Yes. Come on, guys, let's not make this too complicated.
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Well, you can see why they wrote that in there. That makes sense if you think, hold on a second, if an employee can leave with, you know, a random copy of like some old weights as a starting point to rebuild the model, that could be very valuable or... Well, that's IT. Yeah, but there's all kinds of quasi-confidential information or knowledge or know-how that you leave a place like that with.
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So I could see why there was a justification to be very... heavy-handed about it. But again, the question isn't whether you're allowed to be heavy-handed. You are. The question is, why backtrack and then obfuscate and lie after you get caught? Well, right. What do they say?
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Just own it and say, you know what, guys, this is a really valuable company. There's a ton of very valuable trade secret know-how IP confidential information. And we're going to be extremely- Litigious. On the offense and protect it because- Aggressive. And it's correlated to the importance of the company and the ecosystem.
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You could have said that and people could have been upset, but they would have understood.
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I could have invested a dollar. One single dollar. And I would have made a billion dollars. I remember meeting these guys. And I was with Alan Morgan, who was my boss at the time. I was a junior principal at Mayfield. Shout out, Alan.
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And I think we tried to, guys, I don't know if you remember Patrick or John, I think we tried to invest in the business or it didn't happen or then you ended up shutting it down. But right away, you spun back up and started Stripe. And I just watched from the sidelines the whole way. It is such a...
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First of all, it's an amazing place for Silicon Valley where you can see these people just keep pushing the boundaries up and up and up, number one. Number two, the thing that is such a learning for me is like, why didn't I just pick up the phone and call them at any point in the last 17 years? What am I thinking? It's so brutal.
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Well, you know, there's that adage that says something akin to 50% of advertising is useless. We just don't know which 50%. Yeah. I think it's probably true for most corporate structures in general, which is that A lot of the organizational bloat has evolved because of the way that people have responded to how you use technology.
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So meaning, if you look back 50 years ago, if you look at that famous picture of the Microsoft early team, they didn't rely on software necessarily. There wasn't Salesforce, there wasn't Workday, there wasn't all of this infrastructure. And so instead they probably organized by what they were good at and they just tried to do things efficiently.
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And I suspect that many companies in the absence of technology found a way to just be very efficient. That started to change when you had these rigid demarcations of where one job ended and another job started. And part of why that happened is because you had all this software that went in and convinced people
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This will create efficiency, but in return, the chief marketing officer's job is X, Y, and Z. This is how the roles are defined. This is how people do it. And so I think that the reason why things have become so bureaucratic and bloated is that there is just this propensity to run towards software because you think it's a solution At best, it's a symptomatic aid.
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It doesn't address the root cause. And in fact, it promotes bureaucracy and it promotes the bloat that Jamie's talking about. And if you look at Jamie's P&L, he spends $16 billion a year on IT. And I suspect that if you streamline that, you'd actually have half as many people because they'd be doing the job in a wholly different way.
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And by the way, the counterfactual to it is if you look at companies like Facebook or Google or Tesla or SpaceX, who designs, and I'm sure Stripe is the same, who designs a lot of stuff internally that's custom built for their org. I think the way that you see this in the revenue per employee and a bunch of these other metrics in terms of the efficiency of those companies.
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So I think what he is talking about is that he is a victim. Hmm. of this push to productivity, because he would look like a Luddite, if he didn't adopt technology. But by adopting the off the shelf stuff, he introduces organizational bloat, because these things are demarked very, very rigid, you got the marketing team, as you mentioned, using HubSpot.
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The other thing I just want to say on the first topic is I've mentioned this before, Other than engineers who are naive but can be extremely productive from day one, there are very few other job types where naivety is an asset.
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Most people early in their career are in a J-curve where they are negatively contributing and the whole goal is that you invest in these people so that they come out of the J-curve. There are probably other jobs that are like engineering, but many, many are not. And so I think it's important to get the kind of mentoring you get by being in an office.
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And in the absence of that, I think these young people, like Jamie said, are totally lost. That's on them.
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I think that military spending needs to sit downstream from technology. Because if it doesn't, you're sort of misappropriating the money. And what I mean is that we're inventing incredible capabilities in AI and autonomy. I think that you need to take those things first and figure out how to projectize them because I think that builds the kind of modern war machine we need.
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Otherwise, what happens, I tweeted about this, Nick, maybe you can find it, but like the CBO red flagged a project where the Navy was about to appropriate $1.2 trillion to build frigates. Now, There's a body, I think, of military planning that says this is a projection of power and so you need to spend this kind of money because people want to see the big boats and the big iron in the water.
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Okay, and maybe there's something about that, but the reality is you can't be spending three or four billion dollars a boat and taking eight, nine, 10 years to build these things. So this is not sustainable. And part of why they do that is it's not coupled to what's actually happening with respect to innovation, where there are core pockets of companies.
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Saronic just announced a $600 million raise today. Saildrone announced hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts with the Navy. Andrel is doing that with the Army. So I think that military spending needs to happen downstream from what's actually happening in technology, broadly speaking. We don't have that.
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What you have instead are system integrators with extremely deep connectivity that are able to contract well, not necessarily to invent well.
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It's kind of crazy. I mean, he was on such a positive upswing of momentum. It doesn't make much sense why he got embroiled in all of this. The problem with this, though, is I think that the cover-up is always worse than the crime itself. So the first message was very Clinton-esque, like I did not have sexual relations with that woman. He was like, I did not endorse it. I just shared it.
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for how he could rationalize what he did. The kid that's behind this thing, Hayden Davis, I think is his name.
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Did you see that, the CoffeeZilla interview? Well, I saw some of the clips on X, and it was pretty brazen because he essentially said that he had Javier Millay in his pocket, and then there were text messages that used some pretty colorful language to basically say the same thing.
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Then on top of that, there were some text messages that seemed to implicate Malay's sister as having got some of the money from all of this. I don't know. The whole thing just makes absolutely no sense. He was doing so much good, and now he's going to go through this whole cycle of trying to wash his hands of this whole thing. It's a complete waste of time and effort. I don't know why he did this.
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This is the first time where they've actually talked about, at least where I saw the details of how this stuff happens because he laid it out. And there's these people called snipers that go and like pump up the bids right as soon as the coin gets launched. And then they're able to So there's like this entire mechanism.
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I just think it's like really terrible. Do you need help getting off your moral grandstand now?
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Can you please say their name right?
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Announce the goddamn I. Coulson.
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One Swing, by the way, is an incredible, which season are you on? It's an incredible show.
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I've got to get in on that.
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I wonder what it would be like to watch the West Wing and then House of Cards back to back. That's something I should... No, but it's like really a juxtaposition, those two different shows.
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I agree with Patrick. The thing that makes the West Wing a great show is that it's about the insider nature of the White House and the West Wing and where you see these characters like Toby, who would never be a star in any other show under any other circumstance on any network ever. And instead, he's one of these central characters.
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quasi-good, quasi-nefarious bully kind of, he was like the precursor to the Rahm Emanuel archetype in the Obama White House, I think.
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You guys open source the base model or you open source the fine-tuned or both?
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Where does it stand in the spectrum of different tools that folks would use to solve these life sciences problems? There's cell models that are being developed by some, then there's these protein models. Where does this fit?
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And Patrick, do you just expect that over time as Stripe continues to grow, you can just take some of your own excess capital and other people will do the same and keep funding ARK? And then if there's something that ARK creates or innovates on, if it can generate some amount of money, it would just kind of flow back.
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Is it meant to be self-sustaining or is it always just going to be via patronage from successful folks that just want to keep it going?
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I find it incredibly interesting. inspiring that there's just so much movement in these foundational models. It's incredible. Every day just seems like there's something new. The biggest problem that I think that the commercial community is going to deal with is how to actually take advantage of it because you're kind of head spins because you don't exactly know where to start.
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Is there a moment, guys, where is it a regulatory event where you'll say the Visa MasterCard duopoly can get challenged? Is there a set of boundary conditions that you have written down where when you can check a few of these boxes, you know that it's time for those companies to get dismantled?
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The biological models are different in that I think it's a much smaller population of people that will use it and I think they do have to figure out how to take these models and and complement the existing pipeline they have. The pipeline they have right now, I think, is pretty brittle. I think we all know that in life sciences.
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My wife struggles with this a lot, is how to complement a very traditional pipeline with this kind of stuff. So I see it firsthand in how she tries to allocate capital towards these problems. On the other side, I just think these foundational models are really incredible. And I think that I was completely wrong on a couple of my earlier thoughts.
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One thought that I had for a long time was, it just seemed like all these base models were asymptoting. And so I was not convinced where all this capex would go in a productive way. Like, why are you buying all these NVIDIA GPUs? And then I think if you looked at Colossus, Elon's Colossus.
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was that there are still valuable gains in pre-training. And so, the larger the cluster, the more value that there is. Now, he also benefits, I guess, from the X feed, but that was really interesting. So now I'm like a little bullish on NVIDIA. I'm like, oh my God, if this is true, then all this CapEx may be justified. You could be buying a lot of stuff.
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Then, look, I actually also, just to maybe riff on this Grok3 thing for one second, I had three takeaways. My first takeaway was I was sneakily surprised on the pre-training upside on having a larger cluster. So I think that that's very pro-NVIDIA, actually. And it's actually also just really good in general for foundational model makers. So I think that's a really positive thing.
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The second thing is, I don't know if you watched the live stream, but did you guys hear some of the stuff that these guys had to pull to pull this thing off? One of the most incredible. So the way that Elon narrated it was,
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We first had a physical problem, so we just had to search all around the country for one single location where we could actually put 100,000 GPUs and they found it, which was an old Electrolux factory in Memphis. Okay, that's kind of interesting. But then he only had like 15 megawatts and he had to get a quarter gigawatt. And so he had to basically buy every useful generator that was available.
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But then they had to liquid cool it. And so they bought one third of all the portable liquid cooling capacity in America. and located it on prem. But then they figured out that there was a power problem. So then they took all these Tesla power packs and then had to do power smoothing, which had them had to rewrite all of the power pack firmware.
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In all of this, you know how we talked about DeepSeek being this moment where we had lost sight in America of capital being the source of innovation? He proves actually a more generalized rule that I took away from this, which is you always have to have a constraint.
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So meaning, let's say there's like infinite capital in his case and infinite talent because he can basically recruit anybody he wants. What did he do instead? He created this artificial constraint of time. And so he was just able to say, you're going to get this done in a moment. And Nick, I saw the third graph that the guys at Artificial Analysis sent to me.
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I just want to put it up here because it shows you guys. The quality of Grok 3 relative to the amount of time that they've spent on this problem is to me what's staggering. So if you just sort of project the rate of change of this, and this is without judging anyone, OpenAI or Anthropic or anything else, those guys have been doing it for years. These guys have been doing it for a year.
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And they did all of this MacGyver engineering and were able to pull this off. So that's my second takeaway is that innovation needs a constraint. Sometimes it's capital, sometimes it's talent, and sometimes it's time. And so if you can basically be just completely rigid on one of those dimensions, you can get a great team to create something. So that was an interesting takeaway.
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And then the third is, I think what this also speaks to is the notion of like a kuretsu, right? Which is like the Japanese word for like companies that work together while still remaining independent. Yeah. lose partnerships.
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You know, Koreans have Chabos, right?
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Samsung.
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The Japanese have Kuretsus. But this is the manifestation of an American Kuretsu, which is Elon is able to get engineers from Tesla. He's not just buying the power packs. He had them re-engineer the actual firmware in real time on site. And so there's this positive ability to just like organize effort and human capital.
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Like, look, could we all stand up a data center and go and buy $500 million of power packs from Panasonic? Absolutely.
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And then when it looked like we need to rewrite the firmware, it would take another 18 months, to your point, Jason. So it's really incredible what these guys are able to do together. Those were my, it was really, really inspiring.
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How do you, how do you, but guys, okay, let's just double, how, how do you think these guys pull this off? Personal sacrifice, massive personal sacrifice. I understand that, Jason, but I'm talking about like tactically pull this off, where you have to be on site at some point, organizing this team, directing this team, being able to help isolate these problems, fix them.
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It just seems impossible to do it once, let alone six. I don't understand how they do it.
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This is what's counterintuitive. It wasn't clear because... No, it was not, yes. I would guess that the last couple of iterations, it seemed like... OpenAI has moved to what comes after the base model, meaning in the allocation of resources in terms of what they were creating. And so this is what's so counterintuitive. He was like, no.
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And so I don't understand what he knew that everybody else didn't know, but the size of that cluster made no sense. And it could only be a result like this where he basically proved that there was still value in pre-training where size actually led to better outcomes.
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Basically what you guys are saying is for your intellectual perspective, you get a lot more return on the time you spend talking with the private investors you have and your team and then- And customers. And customers.
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And it would just be dilutive and you would have your outcomes, quite honestly, if you had to talk to these other folks who are talking to you and 50 other companies don't really know much of anything, maybe very surface level, and then may actually distract you and force you to make decisions you don't want to make.
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If you look at companies like SpaceX, they're able to provide this yearly liquidity, which actually is probably better because it smooths out a lot of the vol and then people can get back to work. Are you guys profitable, by the way?
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I think if you had to steel man the Bill Gurley point of view, there are very few founders that are probably as steely-eyed as you guys. And so what I think a lot of board members in most other situations that are not Stripe deal with is, what is a good forcing function to keep these folks on track? and focused and thinking in a multi-decade kind of way.
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And they found that the public markets, I think, do that more than anything else. That's probably the most compelling for the folks that would otherwise maybe get distracted. But then for guys like you that can frankly just do it, it's great. It's impressive. It's really impressive. Congratulations.
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Live and kicking, bro. He's still in the arena. Got a lot of chips still to fire. Yes. Let's see what happens.
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Poker.
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Get the clips ready.
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When does it air? On Monday? Next week, I think. I don't know.
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Before the taping.
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John has one for you.
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Is there a version of a network effect inside of Stripe for their customers where if I just allowed you guys to just be integrated into my GL somehow, and you gave me some kind of phantom bank account, why isn't it just a ledger entry if I'm just making a payment from me to somebody else that's also on Stripe?
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Look, you have a very good pulse. And what I would say is that As a subset of the economy, you probably reflect a large part of the global economy. Have you ever been approached or have you ever considered on a regular basis publishing some sort of economic sentiment?
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One of the big things that we've talked about is how many backward revisions there are to everything from non-farm payrolls to GDP that they've become so unreliable. And so it's very difficult for people that are transacting in market to know what to do. Have you guys ever thought about that? Because I'm sure that you have a much more accurate sense of where the economy is than many other people.
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I've learned that Friedberg's backgrounds is some like weird secret communication language. There's a small but fervent group of people that are really into these backgrounds. They're always trying to figure something out.
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What? Well, there you go. Oh, new bestie in ****. Aaron, are you staying in the town?
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Okay, this is perfect. We're all going to be there, bro.
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It was the most incredible change in how politics will be done going forward. I think that people are probably underestimating what happened here. This was a multi hundred billion dollar grift that was stopped on a dime over 12 hours of tweets. You would have never thought that that was possible.
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The point is to put a dagger in something that big, that had so much broad support just a few hours earlier, I think it's so consequential in how the United States can run going forward.
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I think right now you're seeing the first order reaction, which is about the bill itself. And I think that misses the point.
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The bigger issue is going forward, you will have the ability to, and part of it is because we have a set of tools now that allows us to do this, to read 1500 pages in a matter of minutes, to summarize it into the key essential elements, to really understand what's being asked and what's being offered.
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And then to put it in a digestible format that normal people can consume, then all you'll have to do is just connect the dots and tell your congressman or congresswoman that you'd like or dislike this thing. And what you're going to see is a much more active form of government. And I think that's the really big deal. The fact that it really becomes the voice of the people.
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Now, the alternative can also happen. Imagine there is a piece of legislation that is very controversial, but it turns out that people actually want it. then the opposite will also happen and can also happen now. So I think that it's a very nuanced and interesting way that governance can happen.
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The other thing that I'll say though, which is funny, is we should have a segment called Today in Hypocrisy. And if I was running the segment, what I would say is today in hypocrisy, You have a group of people, i.e. the Democrats, who are very upset and who now point to Elon as sort of like some shadow cabinet minister or some shadow president-elect or some shadow first buddy, right?
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Except then I thought to myself, well, hold on a second. Like there was like something untoward happening in the shadows. And I thought, well, actually, this is the exact opposite. The guy is tweeting in real time his stream of consciousness. You absolutely know everything that he wants because he just lays it all bare. And at the same time, I thought it was really interesting.
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The same people who were saying that were the ones that finally admitted that they were hiding Biden for the last two years. And I thought, did we just miss this? Like the same people that are like, hold on, Elon, I don't like the fact you're telling us what you actually want on Twitter transparently while we hired our president of the United States in a box.
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This week in hypocrisy, Jason, take it away.
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The end. Question. Hold on a second. So just to contrast and compare, Trump is not even in office. You know, Elon is not a member of the cabinet per se. These are effectively today still private citizens. When there's all of this noise about what happened over the last two days to stop an absolutely ridiculous pork barrel bill.
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But when are we going to double click into what decisions have been made in the last two years that were actually Biden's versus surrogates that just decided? And who gave them the authority to make those decisions?
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It's deeply unethical. It's very dangerous. Yes. Again, it just goes back to the people elected Joe Biden. He won fair and square. He ran on a specific mandate that the people endorsed. I just think it's devious, though, that certain figures in that White House... took a level of power and decision-making authority that they were never entitled to.
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If they wanted that, they should have run and they should have been elected. That's what we all sign up for. And so I think that that idea that we let that happen or that that happened to the American voting public is, I think, very unfair. That's why I think you have to realize that, and you've said this before, we need these checks and balances going forward.
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And I think the way that you have these checks and balances, again, is veer towards transparency. The more transparency there is. And again, this is where I'll say, You may or may not like Donald Trump, but the one thing you will never have to be worried about is whether you will not be able to hear from him in first person.
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If you're ever in doubt, you will be able to know very quickly where he stands on whatever topic is important to you. And I think that that idea is very important because then if it's filtered through somebody else, because of some health issue that's then covered up. We're making decisions that impact the entire world. We're making decisions that impacts the economy.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
We're making decisions that touch hundreds of millions of American lives. Who are making those decisions?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
The other thing, Jason, that we haven't done is I think that killing the bill was step one. The thing that America has not yet seen, and I think Aaron brought this up with the Patrick Collison tweet, which is just excellent. Nick, if you just want to put it up there, it really is true. America still believes that the more you spend, the more you get. We do. At the core.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
That's why there are 1,500 pages of spending in here. Because people want things because they want things to be better. What we need to train people to understand is actually that it's the lies that are told that make you think that with more money comes a better outcome. And we see it every day in Silicon Valley. We all start with next to nothing as a startup.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And we outmaneuver and we out-execute companies all day long with way more resources. So it has nothing to do with the resources.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
You could have runaway debt.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
No. But I thought that the most credible thing was that they were looking for radioactive material. That somehow some got lost.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Why do you hate Kenkoa?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I don't hate Kenkoa. I don't hate Kenkoa.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Ken Kankoa.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
He's a really good journalist.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
You like Ken Kankoa? I subscribe to Ken Kankoa.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Oh, I like Autism Capital too. I think he's really good.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Oh, Geiger Capital.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And why only at night?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I read number 13 and number 44. I would like to quote from Hamilton the Musical. Oh.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Yeah. No, do it. Do it. Because I want to talk about opening night.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I think that this is so interesting. So I was looking at all of these things. If you put them all together, it paints a really interesting story. So you have Elon filing an injunction, which basically says you should not allow this conversion to happen until we sort out all of these details, because if you allow it to convert and then I win, it'll be very messy to go backwards.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I think that that's a pretty credible legal argument. Then you have Zuck basically say, hey, Elon's right, this company should not convert. But the more interesting thing that really got me thinking about this was a chart that Menlo Ventures put out. Nick, can you just show this? What this shows is just what's happened in the last year. And what do you notice?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
What you notice is the market share of OpenAI has changed pretty meaningfully from half to about a third. And what you see is Anthropic doubled, Meta roughly staying the same, Google picking up steam.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And it started to make me think, this is very similar to a chart that I would have looked at in 2006 and 2007 when we were building Facebook, because we had this huge competitor in MySpace that was the de facto winner. And we were this upstart.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And it made me think, is there a replay of this same thing all over again, where you have this incumbent that pioneers an idea and they start with 100% share. And then all of these upstarts come around from nowhere. And then I thought, well, what is better today if you are a company that's just starting versus if you were the incumbent?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And I think that there's a handful that are worth talking about. So the first is, when you look at what XAI has done with respect to NVIDIA GPUs, the fact that they were able to get 100,000 to work in one contiguous system and are now rapidly scaling up to basically a million over the next year, I think what it does, Jason, it puts you to the front of the line for all hardware.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
So now all of a sudden, if you were third or fourth in line, XAI is now first, and it pushes everybody else down. And in doing that, you either have to buy it yourself or work with your partner. And I think for the folks like Meta, that translates and explains why they're spending so much more. It's sort of like this arms race.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
If you can't spend with my competitors, I'm just going to prefer my competitor to you. So I think that that creates a capital war. In a capital war, I think the big companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and brands like Elon will always be able to attract effectively infinite capital. And their cost of capital goes to zero, which means they'll be able to win this hardware war.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Okay, so put a pin in that. Then the second thing is what happens on the actual data and experience side on the training side. If you listen to Ilya Sutskever, if you listen to Andrej Karpathy, what they effectively are saying is there's this terminal asymptote that we're seeing right now in model quality. So what happens?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
A lot of these folks are now experimenting on the things around the model, right? The user experience, how you use it. Can I keep things in memory? Can I cut and paste these things from here and there? Because what it says is like the data is kind of static and brittle. But it's actually not, as what we said before, because you have this corpus of data on X that's pretty unique.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I suppose if Elon fed in all this kinetic data that he controls through Tesla, that's very unique. Does that all of a sudden create this additive pool of information? Possibly. And then the third thing is, when you look at that chart, what that chart says is, hold on a second, why are corporates moving around? And what I can tell you just through the 80-90 lens is,
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
We are completely promiscuous in how we use models. And the reason is because these models offer different cost quality trade offs at different points in time for different tasks.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And so what we are seeing is a world where instead of having two or three models you rely on, you're going to rely on 30 or 40 or 50 and you're going to trade them off and you're going to use effectively like an LLM router to distance, you know, to balance them, yeah, and to route or just or just to manage and route them.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And then there's an intelligence about that that's constantly tasking and figuring out prompt optimization across these models. So it's this thing where we were very reliant on open AI. Now we're reliant across three or four. Ideally, we'll be reliant on 30 or 40. And so I just see this world where it's all getting commoditized quite quickly.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And so I'm just like sort of scratching my head, like, where is the market value here? Aaron, your thoughts?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Okay. I have this image. It's like we're in a bar. Okay. And all of a sudden. You talking to me? A fight is about to break out. Four thought bubbles appear. Okay. J. Cal's like, J. Cal's like, let's go get him. Sax is like, this guy, this guy's a dipshit. Let's roll. I'm like, look at that chick. She's so good looking. And then Freeberg's like, what will happen to my invite to duck?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I think what he's saying is there'll be... Open source models, there'll be closed source models, but the price that Aaron or me or anybody else pays these model makers will effectively go to zero. Got it.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
You know how much the world spends on software and software-related things every year? It's about $5 trillion. So there's like, call it like a trillion and a half of software licenses, a trillion and a half of consulting, and a trillion and a half of IT folks inside of companies, plus or minus a little bit more, you get about 5 trillion, and that's compounding 13% a year.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I'm pretty sure that the market here shrinks by an order of magnitude. And instead of fighting over 5 trillion, I think we'll be fighting over 500 billion. What do you think? Aaron, you buy that?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I mean, I don't know if you want to make the case more, but... The only reason is that I think that as we de-lever the software development process from humans, I think the unit cost of creating code effectively becomes so cheap that it's going to be very hard to differentially price these products the way that they are.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
So an example would be that, let's say you use, I don't know, pick your favorite piece of software. I don't want to pick on any of this, so I'm not saying- I'm just saying Office Suite.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Sure. Let's pick on Excel because maybe that's like- Sure. Excel, Google Sheets. Yeah. It's not that Excel isn't valuable. It's incredibly valuable. It's what is the marginal cost of creating the Excel equivalent that is good enough that people switch? The marginal cost today is very expensive. And you can see that because it's what it costs Google to make Sheets. But that's humans.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
So the real question is, if you have a legion of bots that works 24 seven, incrementally and increasingly more accurately every day, The question is, what is the marginal cost? And I think the marginal cost of that is going to be very cheap. And when you do that, it's very difficult to price it anywhere near the same.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And the reason is that other companies will then replicate it and say, hold on, if Excel wants to charge $100, I'll charge 50 and I'll take a lower margin. That's just supply-demand economics.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
The cycle time of Zoho is poor.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
No, it's all levered to humans. I just think it's not a good product. It's decent enough.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I do agree with you, Aaron, by the way, that when you bring that whole offline services category online and you automate them with AI, I agree with you that that TAM could be ginormous. All I'm saying is the traditional software TAM today, what people spend $5.1 trillion on, I think people will spend $500 billion on and barely if that.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
There may be other things that people spend money on that are wrapped in AI.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
The companies I talk to, they're consistently like, rip it up. Get us to a point where we can rip it up. And the reason is because what they've realized is they'll spend $50 to $100 million a year for five features. And they're like, just give me these five features as workflows. Give me a simple CRUD database and just get out of the way. And it's like, the trade-off for that
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
makes a lot of sense because, look, let's face it, when you have to build one piece of software that has to sell to 50,000 companies, the reality is that that piece of software is trying to do everything and then some, and it's trying to solve two or three use cases, plus around five or six common use cases that are generalized.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
For 50,000 customers, so you end up with 50,000 features.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
You are completely right about the usage. All I'm debating is when you have to price something, you have to look at the total cost of what it took to make it. and then you want to try to build in a reasonable amount of margin and some reasonable expansion and you discount it back and this is what you think it's worth.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Even though you may not think you're doing that when you implicitly price something that way, that is what's happening underneath the hood to the unemotional buyer of that good. And all I'm saying is,
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
If what Aaron says before, which I agree with is true, which is the cost of using a model to get to an output effectively goes to zero, somewhat what I've been saying before, the marginal cost of compute goes to zero. The marginal cost of energy goes to zero. The real question is, what does it take to make a good in the digital world?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
We're working with an aerospace partner. Won't say who it is. And we sat there and they walked us through what they deal with to make the things that they're making. It's convoluted. And this is not a software problem. It's that there is no piece of software that understands how they want to run their company. And so instead, they have to morph their org chart to the tools that are available.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
So I think what Freeberg is saying is some version of that as well. There were probably people there using the tools that were available. And as a result, at some point, some HR person said, we need to hire this other person and this other person. And instead, what it allows companies to do is just completely reimagine. How do you want your company to work?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And what is the business process you actually need to implement? And then let's just get that built. And I don't know if you guys saw this, but Satya Nadella had this clip that's gone pretty viral in the last couple of days where he effectively said the same thing. And what he's effectively saying is,
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
All these big software systems are business rules wrapping a database plus an incredible go-to-market team. And this is what Alex Karp points to as sharp knives, steak dinners, and basketball game tickets. I don't know if you guys saw that clip. I did see the clip.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
But it really points to the heart of how the software industrial complex, that's what I call it, this $5.1 trillion, this software industrial complex, How has it evolved? I think it's people that build good point products, but when the market, meaning the shareholders and the public investors, demand growth, you have this natural expansion. And what do they do?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
They inflate the feature set, they inflate the cost, and then in order to sell that, they inflate the set of incentives that they give to the buyer. The CIO inside of these large organizations, they control budgets. They're equivalent to state-level budgets in some cases. What do you think the CIO of a top five bank is spending? It's probably $15 to $20 billion a year.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
They are getting wined and dined to a way that you could not even imagine. I don't even think the CEO probably understands. And that filters down through the org, and so they make these- Hey, don't totally ruin our whole game here. Well, I'm just pointing it out.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Right, but I think you and Aaron mentioned this though, the extreme difficulty is not that front end part. That's easy. It's like, I think it's less than three or 4% of the work. the 96% of the work is how you actually integrate it in the backend and how do you provision it, how do you have controls and how do you do security?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Because if those things fail and those are implemented in a bot in a highly regulated market, as an example, you may not actually be allowed to operate.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
No, I think the practical issue where the rubber meets the road there is when there is a penetration And a regulator who's a human, because it will not have been a bot, comes and knocks on your door. And you're like, well, here's this immutable log of the things that I did. And they're like, I don't want an immutable log. Who the hell tested this?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Show me the unit test that you created and signed off on. There is a critical human in the loop problem on that other 95%, which is where I agree with Aaron.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
No, no, no. In stage one, that'll be the case. I think it's in stage five and six. I think you'll need governments to take an entirely different risk posture for highly regulated markets. I don't see that happening in any time in the near future.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Yeah. So I agree a hundred percent with that. My only comment is the software industrial complex today has to shrink because the stranglehold that it has on how companies run is incredibly high for an experience that's incredibly poor. Nobody raises their hand and says, gosh, this piece of enterprise software that I use in my day-to-day life is as good as Instagram or TikTok. Nobody says that.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
They're here to play. 70% of the usage of open AI is consumer.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
What does that mean for them as Gemini and Google get momentum?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Meaning, do you provide enough value and of enough quality where folks don't need to then, folks stay on Google? On google.com? I'm asking you whether it impacts open AI, the quality of Gemini as it increases, or do you think that these usage cohorts are roughly set?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Bye-bye.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
That's a really good question. I think that today there are a lot of really valuable use cases that can sit on top of crypto rails. I think the most obvious one is how you can have real-time payments using stablecoins. I think the United States government is already using some of these stablecoins for a bunch of purposes.
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The number of companies that are beginning to adopt and use stablecoins is actually growing very quickly as well. Take a second to define stablecoins for the audience just to catch people up. Let me define what a stablecoin is, which is that you put a dollar into a wallet somewhere. And in return, you get a digital token of that dollar. There are two big purveyors of stablecoins.
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There's Tether and then there's USDC, which is this company called Circle. I think the easiest way to disambiguate them is Tether is abroad. I think it's run out of somewhere in the Caribbean. And USDC is American. It's run by this company called Circle. The other difference is that there is some ambiguity around how these assets are secured.
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Freeberg's like, how do I get out of this unscathed duck?
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
So what a stable coin is supposed to do is when you give them a dollar, they're supposed to go and buy some short-term treasury security so that that dollar is always guaranteed, right? Because if you had a billion dollars of stable coins, but only $900 million of assets to back them up, there's an insolvency risk there. There's a run on the bank risk, right?
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So theoretically, a billion dollars of stable coins should have a billion dollars of cash in some short-term fungible security. What's incredible is at the scale in which these stable coins operate, that has turned out to be an enormous business. Why? When you give them a billion dollars and get a billion dollars of stable coins in return, they just go and put it into the bank.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And when interest rates are 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, they're making billions and billions of dollars. They get the float. They get the float. So these businesses have turned out to be incredible, but that's beyond the point. The point is that a lot of companies that you would never think, so for example, SpaceX uses these stable coins. How?
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How do you think they collect payments from all the Starlink customers when they aggregate them in all of these long tail countries? They don't want to necessarily take the FX risk, the foreign exchange risk. They don't want to deal with sending wires. So what they do is they'll swap into stablecoin, send it back to the United States, and then swap back to US dollars.
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So it's a very useful utility. So number one is I think we need to make those rails the standard rails in the United States. And what that does is it allows us to chip away at all of this decrepit infrastructure that the banks use to sort of slow down and tax a process that should never have been taxed.
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But I guess the question that, yeah. But that's the first thing. But then the second thing it allows you to do is you start, you can see a world where now you can have real competition against the traditional rails, specifically Visa, MasterCard, American Express. Because when you look at great companies like Stripe, I use Stripe, I pay them 3%.
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If I use stable coins from Stripe, I don't pay zero, but I don't pay 3%. It's kind of somewhere in the middle. If I was technically adept at implementing stable coins through the entire stack of my product, So I use it for this learn with me thing where we publish research. I would save a lot of money.
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So the idea that you can take that 300 basis points you pay to these companies and crush it to zero would be a boon to global GDP because that's 3% on many tens of trillions of dollars.
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Yeah, but in fairness to them, I think, again, both of these two companies look, as of today, again, you have a jurisdictional issue, difference. But as of today, it looks like they're both pegged one for one. But anyways, the point is, if Sachs can really push the adoption of stablecoins, number one, And then number two is to incentivize
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much, much cheaper transactional rails, then I think he can go to Bitcoin and these other more long-tail crypto projects off of a back of momentum. Because these first two things, I think everybody will embrace and he won't get caught in a political quagmire.
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DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
These other things, you have these opponents always coming into the system and they have, even Bitcoin, like when I said this thing about encryption and quantum, and even though I thought, I was very clear. The crypto community on the internet went absolutely crazy all last week. Yes, they piled on. But the thing is, some of the maxis piled on.
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Then when they actually took time to understand the technicalities of what I was saying, other people realized I was right, that they were tweeting it. My point is, That world is so animated and energized that I think it's hard to use them as the first place where you find progress. So I would tell Sachs, go to stablecoins, then disrupt the Visa rails, and then go to the other stuff.
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This was a assassination attempt. You owe the people answers. You owe President Trump answers.
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And instead, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
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We'll let your winners ride.
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And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, S. I squeeze. We need to get merch.
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And I think what they do is they make, frankly, these kinds of achievements much more high level in the sense that you're bringing together people from Hollywood and people from Silicon Valley and the awareness is up and it's just incredibly well produced. And yeah, it's really a cool thing to be a part of. But I mean, seeing some of these people are very intimidating. I sat beside Vin Diesel.
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There are two separate things, and I think it's important to deal with them individually. Groups of people in society in a democracy should have a right to protest. That's absolutely fundamental, and I think they can raise a lot of issues that could otherwise get swept under the carpet.
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When that stuff impedes the public functioning of society for other people, then I think there's a responsibility for law enforcement and other people to act and make sure that that is better managed. So shutting down an entire bridge is not only disruptive, it can be really dangerous. Of course. And it can hurt your cause because then people dislike the cause because it hurt them. Right.
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Typically what happens is you're supposed to file for a permit to protest And when you get that, there are areas that are cordoned off and then people are allowed to express their views. That's a really healthy form of democracy.
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Going rogue like this will only blow up in people's faces because the folks that are somewhat sympathetic will eventually get burned by this experience and turn against them. So that's one set of issues. I think that's just people going rogue. And I think that you can't be tolerant of that kind of chaos. There should be organized protests, but not disorganized chaos.
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Law enforcement needs to get a control of that. Inside of a company, I think this is different. It's this weird thing that I see, which is like what I would call like left on left violence. It's like left leaning people creating all of these distractions and demonstrations inside of left leaning organizations for not being left leaning enough.
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And so it's kind of like a little bit nutty because I think it actually shows how totally naive these employees are and what basic business understanding they have. The first and foremost being that they are at-will employees.
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These are not people that are contracted players in the NBA or are part of a union, okay, where you have guaranteed employment through some mechanism or some arbitration process to even be let go. The fact that you don't even understand that you are at will means that you are there because you want to be there. And Google allows you to be there because they choose for you to be there.
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And at any point, if either of you break a covenant, you can be gone. That kind of stuff I think is very distracting and it just belies a poor understanding of what you're there to do. Google is a for-profit business and they are in the business of generating maximum profit on behalf of their shareholders.
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They are also incentivized to do that in a way that achieves a mission and a set of values that the majority of their employees agree with. And the fact that a small cohort of people can try to hijack and sabotage that overall direction, I think is very misguided.
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Oh, really? That was super cool. He is a super nice guy. And on the other side of me was someone that actually Sachs knows, Toby Emmerich, who was the chairman of Warner Brothers. So just talking to these guys was super cool. Moving it to Los Angeles was a great move.
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I mean, he's like, I don't even know how Nat and I keep getting invited to this, but like to say we were outclassed is an understatement.
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Jacob, what do you think?
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The craziest thing is they give a youth Breakthrough Award. So the Breakthrough Prize is this beautiful globe. And then the junior winner gets like a smaller version, very appropriate. And it was a video of this kid in India who had won it a few years ago and then went off to MIT and then graduated. And then the video is of him coming back to Bangalore because his sister had won this year.
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That's what I always think about when I see those things, when you block streets and stuff or you block airports or you block these throughways. There's a lot of just normal everyday people trying to live their life who are probably very sympathetic to what you stand for.
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But when you disrupt their everyday lives and or threaten their physical security, they're not going to think that that's worth it.
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To Sax's point, I actually would have had more respect for these people if they actually protested the war. But they didn't do that. They had a very discreet, specific claim, which was that they wanted to dissolve a business deal that Google had to provide cloud services to the state of Israel called Project Nimbus.
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And I think that's such a discreet thing that it's hard to understand that those 28 people would have even enough knowledge of what that is. But it sounds like a cloud hosting deal. Well, what's hosted there? And it could be any number of things. And I suspect if it's a billion dollar a year deal, it's many things. It's probably like the Israeli DMV. Is that really what you want?
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And I think that it would have been much of a more powerful thing to do to protest the actual war if that's what they cared about.
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Would you back a robot that had weapon systems on it? I think if you want to summarize what we said last week, it's like there are all kinds of businesses where you'll end up investing in it. And over time, as it morphs, some of us will be faced with some of those decisions and it'll frankly depend on what is the alternative in that moment.
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So I don't think anybody of us are going into go and build a nuclear bomb, but you should not be naive that if you're building nuclear reactors, you could end up being in a situation where that thing gets licensed into a thing that you either agree or disagree with. So this is my point is I think that those kinds of answers or those kinds of questions
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are missing the nuances, and the nuances are very important. So it's impossible to answer this question in a thoughtful way, I think, would be my honest answer. Okay. Sax, any closing thoughts here?
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And he presented it to the sister. And all I could think of was, this is an incredible achievement by like a 16-year-old. And literally at the same time, my 16-year-old was like, dad, the chicken tenders from DoorDash have got arrived.
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Yeah. And I'm accepting it. I think they would have gotten just as much press if they actually protested the war. I think in a week from now, everybody will forget what Project Nimbus is. The odds that it gets canceled are less than zero and everybody will move on. And it will not add to the drumbeat, as Zach said, of people that may be eventually on the right side of this issue, theoretically.
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I say theoretically because that stone is still yet to be overturned on that topic. So I think that they missed the mark. And I think that the part of the press that people glommed on to was it was happening inside of a company in real time and there was video of it.
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I don't think it is. I think it's taking up a lot of headspace amongst breathless journalists. I don't think it matters to the public at large. I don't think anybody cares.
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What is it? Break the rewards?
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So it's like, it's really incredible and inspiring. But fortunately, don't worry, my 16-year-old was able to get the chicken tenders and everything was fine. Oh, okay, good.
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What do we do? It's hilarious. By the way, the other thing I'll say is the person that performed is really amazing, Charlie Puth. And the reason I say it is if you Google Charlie Puth, This guy, he's a young guy in his early 20s, I'm guessing. He is so talented. There's all these videos of Charlie Puth where he'll make a random noise, like he'll clink a Coke bottle with a fork.
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Chamath, what do you see in this inkblot of a product? Neither of those two cohorts. I think that incredibly motivated, dedicated entrepreneurs don't even know that this is happening and don't care.
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The idea that in 2009, 10 or 11, right, that when all the rockets weren't working, you know, and Elon was back against the wall, that he was reading TechCrunch or getting upset because a product failed, some other random product that had nothing to do with his, I think is laughable. I think no great entrepreneur cares.
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I don't think Freeberg is going to change what's happening at a hollow based on, what is this thing called? Humane. Right. Friedberg, have you changed? Have you made decisions? Are you sadder today in Ohala when you walked into the office to manage your team? OK, so there you go. There's your answer. You're failing on this.
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Acorn-fed beef. Yes. For sure, high IQ. Pigs, very high IQ. I saw that cow playing chess before he was served for dinner.
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Here's the theme, Jason. Here's the theme, Jason. The problem is that I think people right now, the real Rorschach test is if you are so easily distracted, you probably don't have enough to do.
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I don't want to call it entitlement, but I think the reality is that if you get caught up in all of these silly little fake battles or decisions, I think what it really means is that you're not busy enough and or you're not working on something that matters enough to you. Because when either of those two things are true, people tend to have blinders on and they are super focused.
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And then he'll record it. And then he'll put it into these digital editing tools. And then he'll make like an entire five-minute song using that as the base, like as the basic building block. The guy is so talented. Anyways, it was a very cool event.
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And they just don't have an opinion. They don't care. Like, honestly, many of these topics today, I really don't care. And it's not because I'm better or worse or smarter or dumber. It's because I'm so overworked right now. I don't have time to have an opinion on this stuff.
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The breakthrough prize was amazing. It's like observing exotic animals in their natural habitat.
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Okay. First of all, shout out to Yuri and Julia. It is incredible. There were two moments where I cried. This woman goes up on stage to give an award to the people that had made this investment in cystic fibrosis. Yeah. And she says, my child was born with cystic fibrosis, and then my second child was born with cystic fibrosis, and then my second child died. She said that, I just burst into tears.
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Yeah, it's basically what you're telling me is it's an overpriced device that could give you first degree burns. And it will ruin your sweaters. And doesn't answer the questions that you ask.
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But then do I think the questions or do I have to say it out loud so it looks like I'm talking to myself?
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It's some really cool, interesting features. It's just like, it's not quite there yet. Who invested in it? Let's not make fun of it. Let's make fun of the investors.
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Sam Altman. Shout out to Sam.
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I'll take the other side when you're done.
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You're saying something totally different. That's, that's utility. Of course, you'll find a device will give you utility. I thought you were saying something else, which is everybody's going to have wearables. And I want to take the exact opposite side of that.
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I totally get that, you know, the use of an accelerometer or whatever in a watch or in a band that you wear on your wrist for a workout. And I think that that's valuable. Or heart rate. A glycemic monitor so that you could... All of that stuff makes super sense for you as an individual. But that's not an experience where you're engaging with it to... to replace some other social interaction.
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That's just you getting utility as you live your life. What I'm saying is the idea that you start to rely on a device as your interface into the world, I would take the exact other side of the bet, which is I think that humans are getting so sick and tired of being of only communicating in these very rigid ways.
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Like I'm telling you, like if you look at our children's generation, they don't know how to make eye contact. They don't know how to talk. And I think it's going to come back and bite them in the ass. And so I think the pendulum is going to swing in the other direction where it's like, okay, enough of this stuff.
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Let's actually look each other in the eye and talk to each other the way that humans were meant to be. And I think that in that, Devices like a glucose monitor or a band has value, but I don't think it's going to be this interface where you're sign languaging it while you're at Coachella. I think you're going to rip the devices off and actually be at Coachella without any devices.
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Well, this has got massive privacy things recording your entire life with a pendant, man. No, thank you. This is why I said what I said. I do think Saks is right that ultimately... you'll have some kind of brain interface, because I do think a chip implant of some kind is very valuable.
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But what I'm also saying is that I think that that will actually lessen the social acceptability of these visible devices that are constantly getting in between you and another person. And so the idea that we're kind of already in a quasi surveillance state, and now we're going to increase that by and factorial to the number of people, I think is very depressing. It is depressing.
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And you know what?
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They do it in my kids. It's actually, Jason, these special- Pouches? Pouches. Yeah, so those are the pouches comedians use, like Chappelle at his shows. Chappelle uses it, Kevin uses them. Yeah, exactly. And they're great.
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And then what what the school now also teaches the kids, at least our school, which I found really interesting, is the graduated form of that is they actually now allow you to put it in a envelope because they're training the kid like the pouch you can't get access to. You have to go back to the locks, unlock device.
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And then I saw that my son last week had it actually in a in a white envelope and he had to close the envelope and just keep it with him. as like a way of graduating from the prison form of keeping the phone away to like, you know, having it in your pocket. So the schools are trying to do a lot to try to teach these kids not to be so dependent on this.
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You get the octopus. I think that Sean missed you. Yeah. He did. By the way, Sean experimented with some Greek cheese that you grill. That was pretty delicious. Oh, hooli. Hooli cheese. Hooli.
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There was a Black Mirror episode on this exact idea.
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Yeah.
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It's actually not even neutral. It's a net negative and a drag on the entire night. Absolutely.
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Those are the best nights, yeah.
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I deleted TikTok about a month ago. It's been liberating. I was a slave to that app. I couldn't believe how much- how much TikTok I was consuming after it was gone because I couldn't find anything to replace it. And then I stumbled into the fact that YouTube has YouTube Shorts and there is a lot of that content, but it's terrible and the algorithm is really bad. Yeah, it sucks.
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And so fortunately, I just stopped using YouTube.
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Profits, air quotes, profits, air quotes.
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But Freeberg, they know basic math. Congress knows basic math. How do they? How do they? What was the intent here? Yeah.
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Well, doesn't it mean, though, that if you run it at breakeven and without a lot of growth, by year five, you'll be back to where you were. So you really have to cover the taxes in years one through four.
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Right.
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I think Jason mentioned it earlier, and I think it's the key thing, which is what is R&D then? And maybe you just move things to cogs and just be done with it.
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Okay, look.
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I remember when I joined the ownership group of the Warriors, I had to file this enormous document. And one of the things that they really dig into is whether you've bet before. And they make it really, really clear that it is completely not allowed to bet.
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And the only way that you can bet is if you're betting on non-basketball and if you were in Vegas and you go to a casino and a troop sports book. That's the only time it's tolerated. The thing with all of these sites, FanDuel and DraftKings is they did deals with the leagues where part of the feature is that when there is really crazy asymmetric betting on something that's obscure,
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they report it back to the leagues so the leagues know how to look at it. Because typically what happens is if you're talking like a very well-contested basketball, Jason, you have a relatively balanced book, right? And what the goal is, is to figure out where are the sharps betting, meaning the really smart money guys, and everybody else is a square, and most of retail is a square, okay?
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They're going to lose their money. And so the goal is to always find out where the sharps are going. But there are some of these bets, and in this case, this is why they found out, when you have something being bet that's very obscure in size, These apps immediately go back to the league and say, this just happened.
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Before what would happen is like all of these bookies would be able to have relationships with some of these players. Sometimes they would also have relationships with some of the refs and it has spilled over. So the NBA has had to deal with an example where one of the refs were, I think he was betting on some games.
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Tim Donaghy and then he was point shaving. So this has been going on for a long time. It moved into the realm of it being automated with algorithms looking out, the fact that this kid didn't have anybody on his team that explained that DraftKings and FanDuel are going to send this data to the NBA is inexcusable because maybe the kid would not have done it.
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Yeah, it has to be lifetime.
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Well, the other thing I'll say, and I mentioned this a few weeks ago, everything is being gamified. You have an entire population that seemingly in America, consumer spending still goes up. Folks are relatively still flush with cash. There's lots of free cash flow.
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There are new and more aggressive forms of stimulus constantly coming down the pike, whether it's student loan forgiveness or something else, right? Governments are inventing new and new ways of buying votes. That's going to put more and more money in people's hands. That means a larger and larger percentage of it will bleed into these kinds of things. And it's not just sports gambling.
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There was an article in the Wall Street Journal about this woman who's a well-respected lawyer who became totally addicted playing like a bingo app, right? And lost her entire life. So these forms of gambling and addiction are just going to skyrocket, I think, because you have these apps that are really incredibly well-engineered. To get you super hooked.
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And then the adrenaline rush and the dopamine rush of actually winning money is a thing that for some people, they can't turn off once they feel it for the first time.
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They get too into it.
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This is what I'm going to tell you. The last thing I'll say on this is when I was in high school, so in the early 90s in Ontario in Canada, they introduced sports betting as a way of generating revenue for the government. What I will tell you is that my entire high school, all the boys, not the girls, We became instant gambling addicts. We were figuring out how to put bets on.
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Most of it was betting in hockey because that's the sport that we all knew the best growing up in Ottawa. But it was all day, every day. It consumed us. And I think when you look inside of these apps, you're seeing a lot of young men with a lot of free cash and a lot of time getting sucked into the gamification of this thing. I think it's going to be a big problem.
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And they're doing something very smart, which is they're paying huge endorsement deals to the players as well. Yes. I think DraftKings did something with LeBron. This is genius because when you get that ingratiated, you'll never get ripped out. Because if they become a huge part of the off-court revenue model for these players... We're locked in.
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When I got admitted to the ownership group in the NBA, I stopped. And I probably made three bets since then. All three were like on the Super Bowl at a casino, so it was legal when I was still an owner. And I've not done it since. And I've refused to download these apps because I love sports. And I think that if I added this to it,
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I just don't think it would be good for me, so I don't want to do it.
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Are you able to be vegetarian? Were you able to find good vegetarian or veggie options in Austin? Talking to me? Yeah.
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Do you never share information where people can actually like get to know you?
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Come on.
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Have you spent time, Sax, like studying like openings and like studying like specific lines. I don't even know if I'm using the right language here.
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I mean, I ran a casino in my high school. Was that the... Yeah, I mean, I ran a little blackjack game where the rich kids could play and I was the house. And I would make a few extra hundred bucks a week. Nice. And that was great because like, you know, between that and my job at Burger King, it really helped. And then I would go and take that. And I actually came pretty decent at Blackjack.
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And I would go, there would be these, what's called charity casinos. So casinos in Ottawa, Ontario were illegal. But if they were to raise charity for various charities, they were allowed. And so my friend and I would show up at these things and just run them over.
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I'll tell you my two scams after you tell us yours. Well, by the way, I'll tell you, I had a bad debt situation in my lunch game. You know, I used to let people bet up to a buck. Okay, so four or five guys up, you know, 25 cents, 50 cents or a dollar. And one guy, he like demanded an expanded credit line. And so I gave him up to two bucks. How many boxes of Ziti did he go down?
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And one lunch, he lost 80 bucks and it took me three months to get paid. It was the worst experience. 80 boxes of Ziti? No, $80. No, I know. I'm just doing a soprano. I had to sweat this guy for three months to get my $80. He was rich, too. His parents were rich.
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Ooh, say more. Yeah, I don't know. I grinded out fake IDs with a buddy of mine.
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We used Harvard Graphics. Zach, what were you using? I was using Harvard Graphics.
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Does it taste like beef?
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I don't remember. I don't remember. The key... I had one drink. Now, the key in the fake ID game is to use your month and day that's yours and then just change the year. Yes. That's the key. That's the key.
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And then you present an award to the person that actually is helping them stamp out the disease. We celebrated the people that found the gene that caused Parkinson's. And then, yeah, I mean, the people at that is pretty incredible. It's in LA, right? They did it in Los Angeles? Yeah. I mean, like, look, Yuri Milner and Julia Milner, Zuck and Priscilla Chan and Anne Wojcicki and Sergey Brin.
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Is that the largest, most listened to podcast in the world?
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Oh, you're manifesting.
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Just so you know, tonight is a murderer's row and Hellmuth is flying back. You saw the lineup. I'm very excited to see what happens today. Is Jason Kuhn coming or no? Yeah.
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In your life. Just you could not be more low-key and self-effacing than Roble and Kuhn for how good they are.
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So I would say the most dynamic
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would probably be Robo because Robo has the most experience playing super, super high stakes cash.
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I think Kuhn is the most precise and like true to GTO.
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Those six people are the ones that organized this breakthrough prize. And I think it's just modern version of the Nobel, which tries to really shine a spotlight on people doing really groundbreaking work in physics and math and life sciences. And so you get people that have just done things that are just very practical, and are very real.
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Hard to exploit. I mean, Kuhn is impossible to exploit. Impossible. No mistakes. No mistakes. No mistakes. Robo knows how to gamble in certain spots. Kuhn knows how to be unexploitable. And the third player is Falamuth. And the third person is Helmuth. And Helmuth just loses his mind.
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It is so... No, the thing with Helmuth is he's capable, unlike anyone I've ever seen, of folding in spots that are... And he's correct, by the way. I've seen Helmuth fold ace-king in spots that none of us would ever do it. I've seen him fold kings in spots that are basically impossible. So Helmuth is able to get these soul reads on people that I think... are amazing. Yeah.
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But look, the higher and higher the stakes get, the more and more I think Robo will be comfortable and Kuhn will just go to a playbook that he knows and trusts.
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It's going to be a unique experience.
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Oh my God. That would be dark. Unless this thing is in the bag. It's got to be too big to rig. If it's too big to rig, I'm going to Mar-a-Lago. Too big to rig.
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I've explained this before. Polymarket is people betting on the outcome. So 58% think Trump's going to win. Whereas the polls in a particular state show the percentage of how each person's going to vote. Hmm. So if for sure you knew the election was 51-49, the betting markets would swing to 100-0.
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I mean, they're both very exciting products. I don't think I've got a lot to add.
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It's possible he's laggy in his estimates. The betting markets seem to go based on momentum. It indicates the swing in momentum.
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Well, Trump over the past few weeks seems to have had a surge owing to the fact that Kamala's interviews generally don't go well. So I think she started off a little behind, started doing interviews to catch up, and now she's a lot behind. I don't think the Bear interview is going to help her.
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Can you just go back and explain how would they drive up EBITDA so much?
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That's where I think the logic breaks down. I don't think Uber customers want to be cross-sold on booking a hotel. See, this is where I think MBA thinking is very different than product thinking. An MBA looking at this would say, well... You know, Expedia and Uber are both in the travel business. Their apps both involve booking trips.
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So we can we can cross sell Expedia from Uber and then cut Expedia's marketing budget. I think that's how an MBA would sort of hand wave over it. I think the way like a product manager would look at this is to say, what does the user want to do? And I know that when I use the Uber app, I just want to basically make a couple of clicks, set my destination, get my car, and then move on.
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And there was a product initiative a few years back at Uber where they tried to capture the user's attention during the ride. And they, you know, they added... That's right.
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It's actually printing money for them. It was like an entertainment stream or something inside the app. No, but they dialed it way back because I don't see it anymore. It was just clutter.
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what the uber user would want and he could rationalize some percentage of them they could cross sell expedia services into i mean ultimately i think it's it's his decision right like well i mean what you're describing is basically a private equity play like dar is going to come in as like a private equity buyer effectively and he knows the business and will run it to reduce cost may boost some revenue and maybe there is a justification for that but
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If you're trying to justify it based on cross-selling, I don't think users of the Uber app want to be cross-sold when they book a taxi. They just want to be able to affect their transaction as efficiently as possible. And just to finish the point I was making on that whole entertainment stream that they had, they dialed that product way back because it got in the way.
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You'd be in the Uber app trying to figure out how to change your destination or something, and all of a sudden you're being shown some entertainment product. It's not what users wanted. And it was always kind of a banana's idea to think that just because the user books an Uber that you own their attention during that ride.
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Because during that ride, you're really competing with every app on the iPhone, right? And that's the problem is you want to get in and out of the Uber app. It's about transacting efficiently.
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I'm never going to think to go on my Uber app for that. The only time I open. But what if they put that feature in there?
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You know, when I open the Uber app, when I want to hail a taxi, that's what it's like.
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I would not think to go into Uber to do that. It would just be clutter.
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Yeah, yeah. The more Uber tries to promote some unrelated product, and what I mean by unrelated is it doesn't help you get to where you're going at that moment. It's clutter in the app. What about Uber Eats, Zags?
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That is highly related to this basically booking a car to pick up some food.
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It's still the taxi business, basically.
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I don't think booking a vacation is an adjacency to ordering food.
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Well, the question is what appeals to that small sliver of independence.
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Well, just to finish my thought was that you'll notice that Uber eats a separate app from Uber. right? I mean, I know you can get to the eats part within Uber, but they created a separate app for a reason. It's because whether you're using Uber Eats or Uber, the goal is immediate gratification. I want to get to where I'm going. I don't book it six hours in advance. I call it right now.
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And the most important thing to me is wait time. This is why Uber is beating Lyft is the wait time is lower. Same thing with food. I'm not thinking about booking my dinner right now. I'm not going to do it in advance. If you browse through the restaurants, the most important piece of data they show you in addition to the rating, is the number of minutes it takes for it to get to you.
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So those apps are all about immediate gratification. And that's why you don't want other things getting in the way of them. Now, I guess the claim is somehow you're going to be able to cross-sell the booking of a vacation or a hotel that you have to think about days or weeks in advance. It's just a completely different state of mind.
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The question I would ask back to you is, if the Brett Baier interview was going so well for Kamala, why was her staff on the sidelines waving to try and end the interview? Apparently, they had like four people waving and trying to cut the interview off. Who said that was the case? He did. Brett Baier said it. So it was like in Rocky IV,
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I just don't think that there's much opportunity to cross-sell that. Or to use the technical jargon, I don't think the attach rate is going to be high.
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I can see that. Yeah.
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So maybe what you could do is take VRBO, rebrand it as Uber Hotel or Uber Travel, whatever you want to call it. Exactly. And then maybe you could push people to download that app.
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You could quantify the value of the installs, right? So.
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when Apollo Creed's corner is like yelling, throw in the damn towel, throw in the damn towel. They couldn't wait to get off the stage after 26 minutes. I just think that if it was going that great. Allegedly, allegedly.
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Yeah.
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I don't think Brett Barrett's going to lie about that. I don't know why he would lie about that. Why would they get her off the stage after 26 minutes if it was going so great? I'm not saying it went as horrible as some of the partisans on the other side are saying, but I don't think it went that great.
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Well, I think that she went, she did the interview precisely to get the talking point that she does adversarial interviews because that talking point was earning them. And so you saw like all of her fans in the media were saying, well, see, she can walk into the lion's den. But again, she did the shortest interview possible. I don't think she answered the questions directly.
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Well, I don't think we're going to. Because I don't think anyone wants a nuclear power plant in their backyard. It's really simple. I mean, no matter what the benefits are for AI or for America's global competitiveness, I just don't think your typical community wants a nuclear power plant in their backyard. And I don't think it matters that much if it's a small modular one either.
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Yeah, and probably for good reason. I mean, I don't want a nuclear power plant in my backyard. Do you? I feel like this has suddenly become a little bit of a luxury belief where... liberal elites are always talking about how we need to have nuclear power now, but there, you know, they're not going to have a nuclear power plant in their backyard.
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So it's easy for all of us to genuflect about what a great idea this is, but let's face it. These things are gonna be built probably in poor or working class communities, And inevitably, there's going to be some accident. I mean, you can tell me how safe they are to your blue in the face. I don't believe it. You know, planes aren't supposed to fall out of the sky either. And it does happen.
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And you know, they're going to set up a power one of these power plants somewhere. And you know, it's probably going to have a DEI program and something's going to happen. I mean, something's going to happen. And then the fallout is literally going to fall out on the people in that poor community.
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Look, this is a perfect example of liberal business elites demanding something... That isn't going to affect them. It's not going to affect them.
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How close do you want it to your ranch, Junko?
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Who's going to work there? Who's going to service it?
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I think she filibustered a lot. She deflected a lot. I don't think she was particularly persuasive. I don't think she convinced anybody. So I think that what you saw there was somebody who just wanted to get it over with as quickly as possible to check the box on, okay, does adversarial interviews. Trump, on the other hand, he actually likes doing these things. The Bloomberg interview.
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ends up becoming a Luddite— China doesn't have to worry about a NIMBY problem. That's right. The CCP just says, this is what we're going to do.
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You're going to have to give them an incentive because no one's going to want to live within 200 miles of one of these things.
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And they're right. I mean, you compare it to commercial airlines, but commercial airlines, that's the technology that's been around for what, like 100 years?
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Let's see the data. Where's the data?
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I'd like to actually... My point about commercial airlines is we've had that technology for over 100 years. It was honed and refined over many decades. And commercial airlines now have become... This is going on 100 years of use, right?
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There have been incidents every decade or two. And that is why... That's not true.
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The reason nuclear has been discredited is because of Three Mile Island and Fukushima and Chernobyl.
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I mean, these names live in infamy.
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It's all filibustered. Come on. It's all anecdotes. He can do the weave. He can do the anecdotes. But he's also very good at coming back on the interviewer when they get adversarial. And the audience was with him. They gave him a standing ovation. He went for 64 minutes compared to her 26. I just think there's no comparison. I think Trump is someone who relishes.
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I'm not fear-mongering. Listen, listen. I'm... I'm just saying I don't want one near me. Now, if they're... Hold on a second. I'm not saying you can't... There were 46 deaths at Chernobyl. I'm not against doing it somewhere where the community is in favor of doing it. So if you can find a place that wants to do this, I would not stop it. Just to be clear. I'm just saying I don't want one near me.
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Let's get to facts. Yeah, we got you. J. Cal, just give me a second. Yeah, yeah. I don't think you're going to find many takers, even among poor communities.
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If they're so new, how can you say for sure what the safety record is going to be?
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walking into lines and doing those interviews. I think Harris did it because she felt like she had to.
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I don't think that's... Maybe it's not such a bad thing that other countries are taking the early adopter risk with this technology.
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We're cutting all this out.
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Would you own 10 miles outside Austin?
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This is why I do this. Next time, plug a company I have a stake in.
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I think this is a classic luxury belief where it's easy for you to espouse this for everybody else, for the nation, because you know the downsides aren't going to fall on you.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Like I said, I'm not against doing it. If you can find a community that's willing to do it. And if you put it where there's no humans, then yeah, that's going to work. So there we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You better get some robot employees.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Zero interest. Let's go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You're like virtue signaling.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yes. It's a luxury belief. You're promoting something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You heard it here first. Because they're going to put these things in poor communities. No, they're not. And so it's never going to affect your life. They're putting them next to data centers. Everything is not identity politics.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It's easy for you to say, oh, I support nuclear. Look how progressive I am. Look how smart I am. You haven't internalized the downsides.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I'm defending the poor. You're going to put these things in poor communities.
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I'm being realistic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm defending the right of communities to say no to this. To your science experiment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
I'm defending the right of local communities to say no to your science experiment, okay?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
There's going to be lawfare all over the place.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Do you really think so, David? Yeah, I do. I mean, look, I'm definitely not at the top of the list. Elon's at the top of the list, right? He has no choice but to go all in. They're already doing lawfare against him. But I think the point is just that if they're not defeated, they're going to keep doing it because there's no downside for it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
No, but she did it in an official context. I think she was like retweeting it. There was like a tweet from her.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
She was taking credit for it. I mean, in a way, she does a favor. She's proud of it. She said the quiet part out loud. So in a way, she does a favor, which is she acknowledged that all of this lawfare against SpaceX and Elon is political. She basically pleaded guilty to it. Look, she's proud of it because she doesn't think there's anything wrong with it. She thinks this is her job.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
As a bureaucrat, she's supposed to punish people who tweet things that you're not supposed to say. That basically is what it comes down to. And I mean, this is the truth about lawfare. They're using the agencies of the federal government to exact reprisals against their political opponents. And if there's not a punishment for that, it's going to keep going.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
By the way, the Biden-Harris administration could stop that. They could say no more lawfare, but they don't do that because the tone was set from the top.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
He's very selective. It's for friends. to get invited.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
No Supreme Court decision. Please. Right now, the only candidate who looks like he could get a landslide is Trump. Otherwise, it's going to be very close. So you're rooting for Trump if you want a landslide.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
That's really hard to figure out. I'm sure the audience will be held in great suspense by that.
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We need to get merch.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
She still can't really explain how she's different than Joe Biden, other than the fact that he's a white male and she's a woman of color. So beyond just sort of the superficial differences, she can't explain on a policy level what she would do differently. She's had so many opportunities to say that. They asked her on The View. They asked her on Stephen Colbert. Brett Baer asked her in his way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
And she still can't explain what she would do differently. And I think that is the fundamental problem she has in her campaign is voters still don't know who she is or what she would do.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
You're the only person talking about that.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
That's not the interview I saw. I saw the interview he just did with Martha Raddatz was she was saying that Trump was exaggerating.
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You're the only one who's fixated on it. No one who is persuadable who doesn't have TDS cares about that topic anymore.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
It's not what they're asking, J.D. If you want to talk about interviews that J.D. Vance has done, talk about the one that's actually going viral right now. And that was the interview he did with Martha Raddatz, where she starts saying that, you know, we've only had a few of these apartment buildings taken over by foreign gangs. And he's like, do you realize what you're saying?
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You know, there's no comeback from that. He destroyed her. It was very compelling what he did. And every interview he does is like that.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Well, if things continue to look good for Trump, I might go to Mar-a-Lago. I might.
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federal holiday, make it- Well, right now, you've got Biden's DOJ is literally suing the state of Virginia, which is required by Virginia law to clean the voter rolls of illegal immigrants. And they've been doing that. And Biden's DOJ has sued to stop that. In California, like you said, we now have a new law signed by Gavin Newsom to make it illegal to ask for voter ID.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
So Democrats seem to be undermining the integrity of elections, not fortifying it. So when you ask, you know, why do Republicans distrust elections? Maybe it has something to do with the way that Democrats are acting. But I agree with you. I think that cleaning up the voter rolls, having a minimum standard for voter verification, is something that I think should be done.
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I could live stream from Mar-a-Lago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
According to the Constitution, the states basically run their own elections, but it doesn't make sense to me that in a one-party machine politics state, where basically one party controls the state, that they could set up a system that effectively entrenches their power forever in federal elections.
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It just seems to me that the federal government has a compelling interest that must be constitutional in ensuring a minimum standard of honesty in federal elections. So I think it would be great to do something about this next year. I think that if you want people to stop questioning elections or engaging in election denial, you need to make the elections above reproach. So let's do that.
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Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Of course I'm invited. I talked to Jared. If things look as good as they do right now, then I think I'm going to have to go to Mar-a-Lago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Today is the day. Congratulations, child. Oh, congratulations. How old, Chamath? No gender name or any other specifications, folks. We can't tip anybody off. No pronouns. We can't tip anybody off. No pronouns. Yes, absolutely. So how are they experiencing their birthday? This child has experienced a wonderful life, and this child is an incredible person.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Not to tell tales out of school, but somebody that we all know in our group chat posted something about the fact that the consumer growth had stalled. I don't know how they knew that, that maybe they got some data or maybe they're an investor. You guys know what I'm talking about. And they said that they're trying to reinvigorate growth into the consumer app at OpenAI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I wrote this in my annual letter, but there are these phases of growth. And when you look at social networks as a perfect example, Friendster was magical when it was first created, right? And then you had MySpace that just ran circles around them because Friendster didn't really invest the money and the quality that it took to create a moat. And then MySpace really wasn't able to compete.
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for whom I have tremendous admiration and love and compassion and hope for the future. All right. And did you order them some chicken fingers? I cannot comment on who this person is. Chicken fingers. Are you talking, of course, about Phil Hellmuth? Your child, Phil Hellmuth. Can we please talk about last weekend's festivities in Vegas? What a disaster he is. Oh, my God.
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So we were, you know, Facebook, we were the eighth or ninth when we showed up on the scene and we ran circles around everybody. I think what it means is that there are these phases of product development which exist in many markets. This market, I think, is going through the same thing.
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And right now, we're in the first, what I would call primordial ooze phase, which is everybody's kind of like running around like a chicken with their heads cut off. There's all these core basic capabilities that are still so magical when you see them. But we all know that five and 10 years from now, these things will be table stakes, right? And what Freeberg just showed is a table that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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of many companies and many trillions of market cap, all effectively running to the same destination. So I think where we are is probably within two years of where the basic building blocks are standardized. And then I think the real businesses get built. So I will maintain my perspective here, which is the quote unquote Facebook of AI has yet to be created.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
But our friend Jason, just to kind of complete the thought, said something about the premium conversion, right? That's what he said. I don't know how he knows that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Guys, just so you guys know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So much fun to make.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I had such a lovely time coming home, to be totally honest with you.
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I think you're totally right. I think that's such a really important observation. That's why I think the incentive for these folks is going to be to push this stuff into the open source. Because if you solve a problem that's operationally necessary for your business, but it isn't the core part of your business,
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What incentive do you have to really keep investing in this for the next five and 10 years to improve it? You're much better off like Klarna, for example, right? We talked about the amazing improvement and savings that Klarna had by improving customer support. Release it in the open source, guys. Let the rest of the community take it over so that it's available to everybody else.
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Otherwise, you're going to be stuck supporting it. And then if and when you ever wanted to switch out a model... GPT-4.0, 4 to 4.0 to Claude to Lama, it's going to be near impossible and it's going to be costly. So I also think, Sax, the incentive to just push towards open source in this market, if you will, is so much more meaningful than any other market. Yeah.
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Explain what it is. So there was this moment where when you were trying to build data centers, you'd have these like one you rack mounted kind of like machines that you used. And what Facebook observed was there was only a handful of companies that provided it. And so it was unnecessarily expensive.
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And so Facebook just designed their own and then released the specs online, just kind of said, here it is. And they went to these Taiwanese manufacturers and other folks and said, please make these for your cost plus a few bucks. And it was revolutionary in that market because it allowed this open platform to sort of embrace this very critical element that everybody needs.
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poker dash update oh my god yeah well he kept tweeting and he leaked every single person who's there and the jets and the jet numbers he's like look here's me and elon elon came by for my dinner no no no it was worse than that no it's worth that he said i got to hang out with our guy elon for 10 minutes and 14 seconds he intercepted him at the valet
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And I think there's going to be a lot of these examples inside of AI because the costs are so extreme, so much more than just building a data center for a traditional web app, that the incentives to do it are just so meaningful.
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It feels killer-esque. J. Cal, can you do that again in Christopher Walken voice, please?
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Brian Ryan is my guy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'll hire Brian. I would reconstitute Kraft.
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How many minutes? 10 minutes and 14 seconds. He had the exact time, down to the second. Oh, my God.
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Can I just make a comment on this? It's just so clean. JCal was the key for me in abandoning Slack. He told me two or three years ago, he called me and he said, I have, you can tell me the exact channels. I eliminated some channels that were random. There was like two or three channels that you banned that your Slack instance wasn't allowed to have. And I was like, this is genius.
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And I went in and I was like, all of our companies should just eliminate these channels. And we could only get like 20% or 30% compliance. But it really started to turn me off Slack because I would get caught in these threads that were just so totally useless. And I thought, why aren't people working?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And this is really great because you cannot blather on about nonsense in Glue, which I find really useful. Well, this is what happens when Slack- We use it at 80, 90, just so you know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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There's a job to be done.
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It's flipping coins.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, the Baccarat sweat is the most incredible performative act ever. In the casino.
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Oh, like you're curling your mustache like an evil villain? It's the evil villain. And then you call it, oh my God, no spotter. If you see it, no spotter.
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Then you lose a small house and then you're like, oh, let's try it again.
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Saks is like, how do I wet my beaker? Saks is interrogating the potato lines. I've never... What's going on?
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Tell us about the patents and how important patents play a role in this, because isn't it like one of Monsanto's big things, like they just go and sue everybody into the ground or whatever?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Freeburg, when you look at a potato, how do you figure out what part of their DNA is the drought-resistant part? Yeah. And then how do you make sure that that's turned on? So even if you inherit that chromosome, is there some potential interaction with the... Generally, if we can... So these are what are called markers, genetic markers.
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So Helmuth asked us to play in the high stakes poker game on PokerGo. So it was me, Helmuth, Stanley, Sammy, House, and then Jen Tilly and Nick Airball and Roble. So most of the guys from the House game plus Jen Tilly and Nick Airball. Jennifer Tilly is amazing. What a great human and actress. Well, listen to this hand. literally the second hand of the actual poker game. Gentilly
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So how do you want to make money, Friedberg? Are you going to sell the seeds? Are you going to become the direct farmer? Are you going to become food as a service? Like, how do you... make the most money from this?
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No comment. No comment. Yeah. I get tilted by the quality of the Driscoll's blueberries. Let me tell you something about the Driscoll's blueberries. Also, the Driscoll, I've had only one batch of a Driscoll's strawberry that was just off the charts. And every 19,847 other batches I bought have been total sh**.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yes, then cut it.
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Oh my God, how great would that be?
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I'm going to go in as soon as this is done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Can you go back to the patent stuff? Like, are you some seed person?
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is in the big blind. No, sorry, she's under the gun. She raises. Hausenbold three bets. It comes all the way around to me on the button. I look and I have pocket kings. I ship the whole cheeseburger. Comes back to Tilly. She ships. House ships. Listen to these hands. Jen Tilly has aces. Jeff Hausenbold has kings. I have kings. Oh, my God. I've never seen a cooler hand like this in my life.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I speak on behalf of J. Cal and I said, we will gladly invest a million at a 10 cap in both of your businesses. Absolutely.
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We will work our way into J. Cal. J. Cal and I will do the deal. We'll wire the money. We'll wire the money. A little million to each of you guys at a 10 cap. Thank you. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Congratulations to both of you.
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There's a great clip of Millay. He goes on this talk show in Argentina and the talk show host, she's just so excited and greets him. And then they start making out. Have you guys seen this? What? They're just guys out of control. Full on French kissing each other. It's hilarious. Yeah, Soros has been very famous for this invest and investigate thing.
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It's like a smart strategy for very, very liquid public market investors that have the curiosity that he does. I don't have much of a reaction to that. I think that the thing with Argentina that's worth taking away is when you've spent decades casting about and misallocating capital and running your economy into the ground, the formula for fixing it is exactly the same.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You cut entitlements and you reinvigorate the economy. And so the thing we need to take away is if we don't get our shit together, that's probably what we're going to have to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
We'll all be out. In the second hand of the game. Anyways. Wow. Don't worry, guys.
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Chantilly. She tripled up.
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Then I stacked her right. Anyways, I don't want to reveal the game, but it was wonderful, this one.
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She's very charming. Great actress. Very charming. Great actress.
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Right. Absolutely. So that happens a lot. I didn't even know what a Facebook was when I joined Facebook. It's an American college phenomenon. No, seriously. You don't have that in Canada.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
But speaking of bets, Jaykal, you told me this week that you just made your largest investment ever. Tell us about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Yeah, you're 80-90ing. So at 80-90, we have this funny thing where we've made it a verb. Whenever you see somebody doing high quality work at a quarter to a tenth of the cost, we say, oh, you just 80-90ed it. Correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
The way that companies will work in five and 10 years, I don't think, guys, any of us are going to recognize what it's going to look like.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I got myself and my co-founders at 8090, we get this stream of emails of companies that are like, or people that are like, we have this product idea or we have this small product. One of the emails I got, this is crazy, was from a guy that's like, oh, we've 8090 Photoshop. So like we have like a much, much cheaper version of Photoshop.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And the guy was doing like a few million bucks of ARR and growing really nicely. But then it turned out that somebody saw that and then 8090'd it. So then there's an open source version of that thing. And so to your point, Friedberg, none of these big companies stand a chance. Yeah. Everything is going to get cheaper and faster.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Not because the products aren't good, but like JCal is going to go off and experiment with this. SAC's going to go off and build a product. You know, as every time that you're at a boundary condition, we're all going to explore, well, maybe we could do this with AI. Maybe we shouldn't hire a person. Not because we're trying to be mean about it, but it's because the normal, natural thing to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And the OPEX of companies is just going to go down, which means the size of companies are going to shrink, which means the amount of money you need is going to go down. And that's just going to create the ability for these companies to sell those products cheaper.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Did you guys see the Google thing? Did you guys see the Google AI Gemini stuff?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
The workflow stuff in Gmail also kicked ass.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
The demo that they showed was you get a bunch of receipts and the person giving the demo, she said something to the effect of, well, wouldn't it be great if like, you know, the AI assistant were able to find all the receipts and then aggregated them and put them in a folder and then also actually generated an expense report or like a spreadsheet on the fly? It... It's crazy. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I got to say, I think that it's free to change your mind. And so it's good to do that. Oh.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I change my mind all the time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Sorry, I know to blow your ears out. I think the Google thing is pretty special. Between last week's announcement of isomorphic labs, which let's be honest, that's just a multi-hundred billion dollar company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Look at a company like Royalty Pharma. So Royalty Pharma, it's a phenomenal business run by a phenomenal entrepreneur, Pablo Lagareta. But what is that business? That's buying 2% and 3% royalties of drugs at work. And you can see how much value that those guys have created, which is essentially 90% EBITDA margin business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
It's outrageous because they're in the business of analyzing and then buying small slivers. I think something like isomorphic ends up being of that magnitude of margin scale, but at an order of magnitude or two orders of magnitude higher revenue. So if you fold that back into a Google algorithm,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
If you think about what they're doing now on the search side, these guys may be really kicking some ass here. So I think that the reports of their death were premature and exaggerated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
I would like to take this opportunity to wish... My child, happy birthday. I absolutely f***ing love you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Love you, boys. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
And to your point, a lot of the people that come on and increasingly a lot of people ask to come on because they know we're not journalists. And so for all of those folks that expect us to be journalists. That's not what we are. We're for entrepreneurs. We're for business people. We're for friends. We're for technologists. We're for curious people. We're for poker players.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
But we're not for journalists. And so we're going to ask whatever we feel like asking. Sometimes those things will touch a chord because it's what you wanted to have asked. And sometimes we won't go to a place whether we didn't have time to or whether we forgot or whether we chose not to. And I think it's important to have that disclaimer. Like we have day jobs and this is what we do
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
To coalesce a bunch of information in the way that we're thinking about the world. So we are not journalists. So please don't have that expectation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No, but that's because you asked it from a position of curiosity. You weren't trying to catch the guy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
This is my point. That's why it comes out differently. And that's why I think people enjoy these conversations. And sometimes we don't get to the other kind of answer because I'm not interested in trying to gotcha somebody that's working hard.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
No, no, no, but I'm saying it rarely lands on the same day. Today is the day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Love you guys. Nice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they're all just useless. It's like this sexual tension that they just need to release somehow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
That was unreal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
No, and, and, They're just smarter. So I'll give you a simple example. Maybe we'll talk about this later, J. Cal, I'm not sure. But when I saw the DOJ's theoretical guidance on the Google antitrust matter, their idea is to divest the browser. And I kind of scratched my head thinking, would any reasonable business person think that that was the right remedy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Meanwhile, three weeks later, Google's like, here's a super chip in quantum computing that breaks the world. And I thought, how is it that these folks are so disconnected from reality that they don't understand what's actually sitting inside this company? And I think it's in part because they don't know the right questions to ask.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And the reason they don't know what the right questions to ask is they've never worked in the real working world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
This is also bureaucrats. So my point is these folks need to get off the sideline and work in a company for a while, know the bowels. They'll be much better able to guide these regulatory agencies if they actually just know what's going on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So if the right answer is some antitrust issue with a company where you need to divest, wouldn't it be great where like 100 smart businessmen looked at that and said, that makes sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Doing great. Fresh off the holiday spectacular.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
They're absolutely right, and that's how it should work. The United States can no longer afford to be a bleeding piggy bank for bad ideas. So yeah, if a bureaucrat thinks the right thing to do is to divest a random browser to fix Google's monopolistic tendencies,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
This is not logical. It's not meaningful. It's misguided. So if what we want is kindergarten soccer, where everybody gets to touch the ball, that's what we are getting right now, which is it's not useful. So I would rather have a business person with a direct point of view.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And by the way, with the level of transparency, the big issue, I guess, Freebrook, that that would create is could these people advantage themselves somehow to make more wealth? But the reality is, That would be so obvious and laid bare. What happens today is they burrow at this mid-level of an organization and they do exactly this, but it's not laid bare.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So I'd rather be a transparent where some guy tries to take the government for $500 million and we castigate that person than what's happening today, which is you slip in the back door, you get paid four or 500 grand from a company, then you come back to the government, then you go back. Nobody knows who these people are. Nobody knows the decisions they're making.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And they're altogether misguided because they're not grounded in an understanding of the real economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I saw Sundar post it. I saw it in my feed. I ended up missing my next meeting because I had to figure out how long will it take for us to crack the encryption standards that we use for Bitcoin. Nick, here's the answer because I was so tilted by this idea. So if you think of Willow as essentially like one stable logical qubit equivalent in a chip, We need about 4,000 to break RSA 2048.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And we need about 8,000 to break SHA-256, which is the underlying encryption framework for Bitcoin. So I think you're right. I think we're in the sort of like- The endgame? Two to five year shot clock. No, I mean, I think what will have to happen is some of these chains will need to obviously re-implement something at a pretty foundational level.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
The weird thing, as Freebrook says, is like the Willowchips error correction gets better the more of these things you start to use together. Now, there are some really big problems inside these chips, like logical interconnects are very complicated. If you put two chips on a board, like the C2C communication is complicated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
All this stuff that we haven't figured out how to do, but this is a big deal. I was really like, my God, what's going on here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
It's really incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Hold on, hold on. He worked, he went to LinkedIn. That's how it all started.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
You have a lossy transistor and then you'll figure out PN junctions. You'll figure out all of these ways of just like getting the error correction down. But by the way, this reinforces what you said before, which is it's hard for an outsider like us to comprehend what's really happening inside of Google because the business they built was able to fund this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I mean, and I went down a rabbit hole because I'd never heard of who this guy was that runs his helmet, Nevin. He's in Santa Barbara.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
He has his own law, Nevin's law. And then I went down the rabbit hole of that. But what's amazing is, so valuable for humanity, Google had the money to fund him for the last 12 years. Exactly. The greatest money printing machine of all time is paying dividends. Yeah. But isn't it great to know that Google takes these resources from search and
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And sure, maybe there's waste or maybe they could have done better with the black George Washington or maybe they could have done better with YouTube. But the other side is they've been able to incubate and germinate these brilliant people that can toil away and create these important step function advances for humanity. It's really awesome. DeepMind is on that list as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I joined him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Keith, what are your thoughts about it? DeepMind, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah. 10 to the 25th number of years. That's the big, I think, hole in the whole RCS benchmark that they use, that it only is, it's a framework that only a quantum computer could theoretically even provide a solution.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I have to say, Friedberg, I don't think you've skied with me and Jason. Jason is an excellent skier. I mean, his form is beautiful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
How do you build a compiler? Who the hell knows? How do you build language properly? These are all complicated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I have. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Before we jump in, I actually have a question for you. Starting already. How does that happen, Keith? How do you, you're at Founders, sorry, and then you get, what, like, what pulled you to go and work with Vinod? And then what pulled you back? Like, how does that process work? Because these things are typically meant to be sort of forever jobs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Here it comes. Buckle in, free bird.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Or no?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Let's move on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
No, I was thinking about Schrodinger's cat. That's like another ridiculous thought experiment that when you go down there. It's the same concept. It's the same concept.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
You don't know whether it's in the box or not until you open the box. Until you open the box.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
He's more open to science. More stylish, better BMI. I need to defend Sachs. They both said, this is stupid and I'll never touch it. Except Keith was kinder and more articulate in getting there. He did. Sachs would have just been snoring.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
There's things in the real world. Big shout out to Gukesh D, my Indian friend, 18 years old, new world champion. I saw that. You know chess world champion. Wow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Is that who he played? Listen, bro, listen. Every Brown guy that's done any random useful thing in the world, we all know each other. We're in a huge group chat. Oh, is it really? Yeah, it's just how it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Is it like the top 10 tech companies? The group chat's name is What Can Brown Do For You?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
My iPhone does not work. I'm sorry. I'm just going to say it. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I... After three years, I upgraded to the newest phone. I upgraded to the newest OS. The phone doesn't work, meaning like to call people, I can't call my wife anymore. I can't call my kids anymore. The phone bricks constantly. My photos app doesn't work. It is just really bad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And I think for a company of this scale, I don't understand how it does not go through a more complicated test harness that catches all of this. I'm sorry, I'm not trying to complain, but because I know it's hard for them and I know it's complicated, but it's really bad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
If you define software as it touches a consumer, Tesla, Apple, in some ways, Google, maybe Meta with the Meta glasses. Trying. Attempting. You can't say NVIDIA because I think NVIDIA touches the consumer through an app that then sits on top of CUDA, which I think that's a brilliant strategy for them, but
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Well, I don't think, look, you don't need to necessarily terrorize people, but I do think you have to go through UAT. So I think it's pretty reasonable when you have a large footprint of consumers using an app to go through user acceptance. Testing is like first base. And typically what happens is you can do a process of a few months where several hundred thousand people get it all over the world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And as long as you do an okay job of getting a decent distribution of people, this would have come out. But I want to just talk about what Keith said as well. It's literally not just photos. It's like the phone doesn't work. So there are just core structural issues with this operating system now that makes the iPhone maybe 10 to 30% less usable. And that's really frustrating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Do you need a machine learning chip to do inference to figure out that when you constantly run your phone at a certain level of brightness, you should just allow the phone to be at a certain level of brightness? Yeah, stop changing the damn brightness. Why does it read? This is not complicated software engineering, guys. No.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
That's a great take. That's a great take. I mean, you just go off the rails, right? You go off the rails. So Keith, you think that what happened is like when Steve Jobs isn't there and Johnny Ive isn't there, There's still a bunch of folks that probably think they have taste, but the real taste folks left, and there's really no scaffolding left to be more methodical.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
It's an incredible point because I... If I'm being really insecure, I would want to say, oh yeah, I know we had a lot of taste at Facebook back in the day, but actually we had so much scaffolding around data, probably because intuitively we knew that that was way more reliable for us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Sorry, Keith, can you double click into that? So how did it come into the open source that what he said was a lie? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Keith, why did you leave Founders Fund to go to COSA?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Keith, do you think that the Pegasus spyware that can infiltrate WhatsApp so that you can turn on the mic and listen remotely, and it has no fingerprints, it's very difficult to detect, do you think an equivalent, let's call it a backdoor, exists inside of TikTok?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
When I had dinner with him, one of the things that I pointed out to him was this specific thing. I said, you have to look at the Pegasus-like equivalent infiltration of WhatsApp having been done on TikTok. Because the reality is if TikTok has 200 million users, it is true that 199,999,000 just don't matter. So you could turn on the microphone, you're not going to hear anything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But there's probably 1,000 to 10,000 to 15,000 people, and I do suspect that state actors are smart enough to figure out how to triangulate who. You would want to be able to turn it on when that phone is in your pocket or when that phone is on a desk. And I'm sure you will hear all kinds of random things. And many of those things could be quite sensitive in nature.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I think that this is something that the government's going to have to look at really intensely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
100%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Oh, you know what I bought? Yes. I just bought recently a Denver cut, which I'd never tried. Incredible. Denver cut?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
They're waiting to get disrupted by crypto stablecoins. Seriously, talk about missing your window. Get out there, boys. They bought that crypto stablecoin company for like a billion dollars. Defensive, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah, totally different timeline. Or the public currency to have bought WhatsApp.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Well, I was just going to ask Keith a question, which is what is the game theory behind Stripe not going out? What's the strategic rationale?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I think Keith said it pretty well, which is that we do have a lot of experience with how tariffs can be implemented and that the practical experience is not what the fear mongering is about. That being said, I think the devil will be in the details, which markets for which goods, what is the tariff and why?
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What I hope happens is that if we can really study the second and third order degree impacts of some of these markets, what the tariff does is it acts almost as a reverse subsidy for American companies to compete. I'll give you one very narrow example. If you believe in electrifying the American economy, one of the underlying things that you need are electric motors, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Electric motors and electric batteries. And just to double click on electric motors for a second, electric motors needs a permanent magnet. If you look inside of a permanent magnet, there are these rare earths that are just required to make these magnets. But as it turns out, it is impossible for any company that is not a Chinese company
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to be able to manufacture these magnets in an economically viable way. And the reason is because not only can China make it and they can make it in the absence of a lot of environmental controls, they'll also subsidize. So if anybody tries to compete, they'll just inject a subsidy into that economic supply chain where they're always cheaper. So what do you do, Jason?
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If you can observe that and realize that we want supply chain diversity, What the tariff does is it starts to push back on those kinds of activities because it doesn't allow it to continue to work. Then if you take that with what the United States government already does through the DOE, which is through subsidies and underwriting,
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This is what I mean by it could be a really amazing new moment for the American economy. And that would please a lot of people, including a lot of people on the left, if they just took the time to understand what's being proposed.
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Why can't we get them? We have one of the largest lithium deposits in the world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The lithium supply chain is another really good one that's emblematic of all of this, but there are so many other markets. I'm sure that if you looked in something that's a little bit more down the middle like appliances, what you would also see is the same thing where Whirlpool will try to make an appliance or Bissell will try to make a vacuum cleaner and the Chinese equivalent
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makes it almost like fighting uphill. And there has to be a way to course correct that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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version of this. I wrote this in my weekly newsletter, but I was curious why these Chinese models are so good. And I was like, the training of these models seems to be quite fast. The quality of these models are really good, the Alibaba model, et cetera.
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And part of what you realize is when they do their training runs, the Chinese models have no guardrails in the sense that there's no copyright checks. No. There's just none of these things that otherwise slow down an American company to make a useful model. They don't have any of those things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So that's another example where maybe there's not an economic tariff, but there has to be a simple reciprocity. And in the absence of reciprocity, I think it's reasonable to say that there needs to be checks and balances.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Awesome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I mean...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
We have a good lineup of co-hosts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Thank you. Thank you for joining us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Have you guys seen that clip of the guy with the fake bum that runs around the city?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Can you find a clip of this guy? Oh my God, it's so ridiculous.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Here's an interesting tweet that I saw, Nick. Can you just share it with the guys?
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The reason why it was interesting to me was not the net worth per se, but I think this is the first time that I can remember in modern history, at least, that I've been in the United States and following US politics where such an enormous number of business people have been motivated to come and work inside of the administration.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think that it creates this very interesting contrast and compare. I think that the Democrats would never have assembled a group of people like this, even though the Democratic Party has a version of this chart that they could have made. There's a lot of extremely talented business people that support the Democratic Party. The problem is that they believe it's deeply unfashionable
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to get strong, competent business people to take a pause in their business career and come work in government. And you almost look down on people that are successful. Whereas the Republican alternative here, if it creates... a movement, so to speak, so that subsequent presidents tap folks on the shoulder, I think we'll be much better off. And the reason is pretty simple.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think that the United States economy is too complicated to be managed by theoreticians, by folks with random PhDs and absolutely no working experience in the real world. And when you bring those people in to oversee those PhDs, I think you probably get better outcomes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I hope this becomes a standard, which is ask these very talented, clearly demonstrated, successful people with judgment to hit the pause for a year or three or five, whatever it is, step into government, help the country, and then go back.
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You want to hear an interesting factoid? Yes, please. There was an article in Bloomberg, I sent it to Nick, but people have been tracking the S&P 500 index versus the equal weighted index. So when you calculate the S&P 500 index, you weight it for the market cap. So the top seven or eight companies obviously get a lot more weight in it. And so they look at the spread between that index
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and an equal weighted index where every 500 companies are, you know, the 500 companies are each equal. And what's interesting is the spread right now is the most extreme since March of 2000, right before the dot-com crash. Jesus Christ. Thanks, Chamath. Well, this is Bloomberg's data, so I'm just repeating it. I read that article, but... That's incredible.
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It's a tie-in to the AI thing, I guess, that we're going to talk about soon, but... Next, yeah. We could be at the end of just an enormous hype cycle here where we have to contract the equity market. That's probably not a bad thing, by the way, because as Zach said, one of the things that you have to do is I think you have to underwrite to a rate of return.
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And right now, nobody knows really what to do because... valuations would tell you that you should price to the low end, but then it's not really clear what the risk-free rate of return should be. So everybody's just sort of like they're shrugging and their arms are in the air and nobody knows what to do.
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So if you really want to get the economy moving at some point, you're going to have to reset something. You're going to have to reset rates or you're going to have to set the equity risk premium in the stock market You're going to have to reset people's expectations around what is actually happening in the economy. And right now, we're in this limbo where none of those things have been decided.
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But there are all of these weird moments, like data points that you could use to kind of just justify your bias, quite honestly. But the point is that I think there's a lot of question marks right now, not a lot of answers.
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You cannot spend this kind of money and show no incremental revenue potential. So while this is incredible for NVIDIA, the chicken is coming home to roost. Because if you do not start seeing revenue flow to the bottom line of these companies that are spending $26 billion a quarter, the market cap of NVIDIA is not what the market cap of NVIDIA should be.
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bare chests. Can I tell you how good Italian white wine is on a hot, humid day? It may be the closest thing to ambrosia in modern society. It's just so good. Is that your sports drink? It's just like you get off the... I can picture you on like a treadmill. I drink so much white wine during the summertime, and I eat gelato every day, and I tend to still lose
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And all of these other companies are going to get punished for spending this kind of money. Where are all these newfangled things that we're supposed to see that justifies $100 billion of chip spend a year, $200 billion of energy spend, $100 billion of all this other stuff? We're now spending $750 billion. This is on the order of a national...
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transfer payment and we've seen nothing to show for it except that you can mimic somebody's voice. It doesn't all hang together yet.
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Well, I think we're all converging on the same realization, which is you can't spend a trillion dollars and only have toy apps to show for it. So I think we've all been amazed by these AI demos. I think the four of us have talked pretty incessantly about it now for 18 plus months ever since we saw the first open AI demos. So that's great.
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And the underlying technology, I think, is really important. But it's also... important to acknowledge that the underlying technology has enormous gaps. There's gaps in the quality of the products that can be created to not have hallucinations. Those gaps are too large right now for them to be used reliably in production settings unless you have a very defined scope.
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A couple pounds by the time I get home.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you have a defined scope, though, The implementation costs are not nearly what needs the level of spend to support. So there's just a big mismatch. Second is that we have a huge problem with NVIDIA, and I'll just kind of say the quiet part out loud, which is you can't spend this kind of money to have technology lock in to one hardware vendor. And that makes no sense.
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And what you're seeing now is that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, AMD, Intel, a plethora of startups, GROK, everybody trying to make now different hardware solutions. The problem though that that creates is that we have this massive lock-in right now because the code is littered with all these NVIDIA specific ways of implementing access to GPUs. That's not sustainable.
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So we're in a bit of an existential thrash. And I think the only way that we're going to get around this is to do a little bit of a reset. And I think that's going to touch a lot of startups that have already taken down way too much money at really insane valuations.
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Part of that was just because we needed, I guess the market wanted a place to believe in again after the crypto meltdown and after all of the other SaaS meltdown and all of the other stuff that we've gone through. So Yeah, I think that we are in a bit of a reckoning right now.
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It's going to be a complicated couple of quarters at a minimum and probably a complicated year to sort out who's actually real.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Be honest. You brought wine to the gym?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, I opened it. It had to breathe. I went and then I had somebody just bring me a little sippy poops just so I could see if it was opening up properly.
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Yeah, I mean, I don't think it's going to be the next couple of quarters, quite honestly. I do think in the next couple of decades.
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And in the next couple of years, what I would hope ambitiously is that there are a few really useful proof points where companies are making revenue solving very specific defined problems, where quite honestly, you're taking workloads of X and making it X over 10, right? And I think that that's possible.
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But I think this generalized idea that all of this spend is going to have a good ROI, I think is pretty wishful thinking.
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Okay. Like, we've spent a trillion dollars. Let's say that there's four purchasing commits for, let's be generous and say only half that number. So now there's $1.5 trillion. So we're $1.5 billion in the J curve. How much total revenue does the entire AI economy that's established today need to generate to pay that back plus some reasonable rate of return? Revenue at a fair multiple.
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And I think what I'm getting to is OpenAI is a good example of a company that's winning, but unless they somehow figure out a way to start making $50 billion, there's another $47 billion of revenue that's missing. That's my point.
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I'm just saying that's like just for the last couple of years of spend.
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That's a different explanation, which is we can just take the rate of return to zero because we have nothing better to do with the money. That's a fair answer as well, Jason.
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What do you think of Andreessen, this article that Andreessen just turned on 20,000 GPUs?
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A friend of mine who's a very successful debt fund manager, and I talked about it this week, a friend of the pod. I won't name check him, but he knows who he is. was and I am we're talking about this.
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And basically, I think if you look at the the most typical deal, so like, for example, the core weave deal, which was floating around, was something along the lines of 40% of the cost of all the GPUs was put up in cash and 60% was lent to core weave by a whole group of bankers. So assuming Andreessen was able to do roughly the same thing,
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The 20,000 GPU cluster at call it say 20 to 30,000 is between four and 600 million of cost. And if they get 60% of it financed, I hope they did, that still leaves 40% that they would have had to pay for, which you're still talking about $100 million plus. And so then the real question is, can they get enough equity back to make that $100 million investment worthwhile.
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And just to put a fine point on this, if that's 100 million of management fees, the reality is that that's actually $2 billion of value, right? Because these management companies trade at, call it, say 20 odd times. So what's so interesting about this is like, you take 100 million of management fee, that's worth 2 billion of enterprise value, you dump it into these chips and cash,
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So whatever equity you get from these startups will need to make about $2 billion plus a little bit to account for the time value of money. Otherwise, you were probably better off not doing this. That's just the math. I wonder if this is defensive.
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There's a lot of ongoing costs. Yeah, a lot of ongoing costs. Yeah. let's just say they'll spend that another 20 or 30 million over the next 10 years. My point is, it's a drag on your enterprise value that's probably in the billion plus dollar range. And so whatever equity you get needs to make up for that plus some.
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And my only comment is that if you then factor in, Sax, as you said before, the desire to get these NVIDIA chips down in price, but also to have hardware diversity, It's a really speculative bet, and you have to be really right.
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I don't think you need to do this to build a successful venture firm. I mean, if you wanted to maximize the value of the entity, you would keep the $100 million for yourself because then some investor will pay you a huge multiple for that.
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I'm just saying you have to see a path to make back what you're losing in enterprise value.
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I think that's an excellent point.
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It's a majority, but not a super majority.
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By the way, look, Look who's been the most ardent supporter of Joe Biden. It's been the progressive left. Those are the folks that have actually said, hey, and I think probably it's because there's a underlying quid pro quo at play, AOC, Bernie Sanders, all of these folks. Elizabeth Warren.
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If they support Biden and he wins a second term, I suspect that there's going to be a lot of their legislative agenda that basically gets put up for vote. 100%, 100%, yes.
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They want reasonable borders, reasonable immigration. If I had to kind of give you my opinion on all of this, I do think that when you look across all of these countries, I do think Freiburg is touching on something. But I think the explanation doesn't have to be this idea that people are embracing socialism.
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I think there's a much simpler explanation as well, which is that we've gone through a very difficult period of joblessness, of inflation, of high costs. And I think typically what happens is you have governmental turnover. in these moments. And so the incumbent gets tossed out and somebody else comes in and whatever they're saying seems like the new thing.
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So for example, in Canada right now, the opposite is trending, which is the liberal socialist government just looks totally incompetent. And it looks like the progressives, when this election happens, is just going to completely run over them. And so that's more of a swing to the right. So I think it's less left or right. I think it's incumbent
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people who have not done necessarily a great job in these last four years getting tossed out for folks that are new. And I think that explains a lot of these elections more than socialism or anything else.
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Where Sachs is right. It's like, look, it's in every other country of the world. other than the West, you embrace the national traditions that make a culture its own. But if you came to Sri Lanka, you'd see people in saris, you'd see people dressed in traditional garb, You speak this one language that's somewhat complicated, not spoken anywhere else, although we teach English as well.
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But the point is that there are these cultural traditions, and that's just an example of a country that I know well, but many countries. If you look across Africa, it's the same. If you look across Asia, Central and South America. In the West, it's more of that you come and there's this kind of like odd monoculture. And I think at some point people are pushing back against it.
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I do agree with David that there is that pushback. And I think that that's a reasonable pushback. Well, America's very unique in that.
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No, no, no. So my only point, and I agree with you, J. Kelly, is as a country, you're allowed to have those beliefs. It's not that just because you're in the West, you have to throw that out. And all of a sudden, you have to succumb to this belief that everybody else's culture is better than the one that you've had for the last four or 500 years. I don't think that that's necessarily true.
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And I think you miss out on a lot by saying that.
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So to your point, I just think that when you look globally, there's a really interesting quote from Peter Thiel that actually is, he made this comment, which is, if you look at the 10 commandments, he's like, the first and the 10th are the most powerful because the first one is about looking up and the 10th is not about looking down and everything else is about looking left and right of you.
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And he brings it up in this context of all of these commandments, the middle eight, are all about how you should not be looking to the left and the right, figuring out and making yourself getting tilted about the fact that you have less than the other person. No coveting.
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And I just think that there may be something interesting in that idea, which is that what we've really done is we've created tools that have allowed you to just obsess and fantasize about all these random people's lives who you think are perfect, but they're just manufactured trying to get views anyways. And you just leave being angry and thinking your life sucks.
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And in fact, your life is actually not that bad. And I think if we had more truth and honesty and authenticity, maybe there would be less of this perception and you'd actually try to just enjoy what you have. And I don't think we've figured that out.
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They're branding Nostracanus. He has to finish this in two hours because he's taping with Jesse Waters.
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They had 95,000 people. We had 100 people.
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I'm putting you on the spot here. You've seen all these clips. Yeah. Do you think that there's an active cover-up going on by the White House about his cognitive system?
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No, but sorry. Kidding aside, you think there's a cover-up?
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Visited the White House, yeah.
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I mean, it's pretty incredible actually, but it looks like there's a really good chance that it has. I think the bigger question though is if we are on the verge of a real contraction in the economy. And I think there's been enough people that have warned.
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You have to remember, even though the stock market for seven companies is hitting all-time highs, the stock market for every other company that isn't those seven companies have not. And that really is about just the broad-based demand in the economy. So yeah, I think that inflation is contracting. But it could be contracting for a combination of reasons.
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Well, and the receipts are coming. Well, let's just play this out. So if there is a grand cover up, I think, Jason, you are right that there is too much time between now and the election. There will be a. deep throat Watergate style leak here. You know, there will be a Woodward and Bernstein and gets to the bottom of this. I just think the odds of that are 100% of it not happening are too low.
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So I guess then the real question is, is it that the only way to keep the charade going is the quote unquote threat of the Donald Trump boogeyman? Is that what they use basically to hang over these people to?
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One is because we have had high rates for a long time. But the other part is now people aren't employed. There is no money. And the question is whether you have some sort of contraction economically that is measured by a recession or not. I think that's a really big question. What happens in the next couple quarters? Do we have a little mini recession or not?
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This is amazing. I mean, you're name checking yourself here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Listen, so many times in the past, your head has been so far up your ass, but this time it's really real. You open it and you see your face, but it's you just name checking yourself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
The Dunder Mifflin Inflation Index.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Yeah. Wait, Freebird, are you saying the entire Florida coastline is no longer economically viable?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
At what price?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If the expected life of a house is 20 years, then that's not viable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Does this apply to the entire coastline or just parts of it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Yeah, but is anyone talking about a federal bailout?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
A few weeks ago when I shouted out that Glue.ai was hiring engineers, we had like 100 applications just from that. From Glue.ai looking for engineers? From one plug on the show, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I honestly hadn't heard that. I mean, the trend that I thought was happening was that you had these big funds, like BlackRock or whatever, buying up huge numbers of homes and then running them to… Low-end homes, yeah. Low-end or medium, you know, to families. I thought that's what was going on. I hadn't heard that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
So it was a good thing that I sold my Miami place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Well done, Sachs. You top ticked it again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I really love that house. You love that house?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Why are you attacking Benioff? It's just a stray.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
It's a joke.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
He's chomping at the bit to come back on the pod and explain why AI is not going to disrupt SaaS. Really?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
He's texting me. He wants to come on. Okay, cool.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Leave Benioff alone. It's like, how many new enemies do you want to create? Every week there's got to be somebody.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Just when you thought he was running out of feuds, you know?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Did you guys see that tweet that somebody suggested throwing a conference with all of J. Cal's haters?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I think somebody could launch a successful summit just doing that. It's like a ready-made audience. And they're clearly passionate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think it would rival the All-In Summit in terms of the passion of the fans.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Are you kidding me?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Freeberg. I'd have to keynote. Paul Graham.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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J-Cal was just so... I was brutal to Zuck in the early days. Brutal, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But you're right. Like, you know, throwing a conference for J-haters would just be... J-haters? That's like a ready-made... J-haters. Jaders. That is an underserved and passionate demographic. It would be bigger than 10.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Well, It is ironic that frequently the government takes actions on these monopolies at precisely the moment they're subject to the greatest disruption. Totally. The same thing happened with Microsoft in a way. But it was still a good thing that the government acted when it did because there was a risk of Microsoft porting over its desktop monopoly into this new era of the internet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I think it's still a good thing to be looking at breaking up Google. I actually think that would be good. At the end of the day, it might even be good for shareholders. This thing should be probably three separate companies like we've talked about in our previous show. But it is true that Google is facing the most existential threat to its search monopoly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
And it is a monopoly in the form of open AI at this point in time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Well, in terms of the political environment for M&A next year?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. I mean, so obviously it depends which administration's in power. A lot of Democrats, prominent Democrats in tech like Mark Cuban or Reid Hoffman have been making the case that if Kamala is president, she's going to be much more hospitable and friendly towards M&A. And they've been saying explicitly that they want Lena Kahn fired.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, in response to that, AOC just came out and said, we're going to have a throwdown if you do that. So I don't... Let's go. I would not expect a substantial difference or improvement in the regulatory... permissiveness towards M&A if we have a democratic administration. If you have Trump in office next year, I think that there will be an opening up of M&A.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I think the Republicans have their own issues with big tech, but those issues tend to revolve around censorship and bias and search results and LLMs, things like that, as opposed to bigness per se. So I think it will be easier to get M&A done next year if you have a Republican administration.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I'm not invited to that. People don't know that you're being facetious, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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They often don't. They often don't.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I have not seen that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Wait, why am I there?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I'm going to be a keynote? You're the MC. Okay, wow, I'm the MC.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I don't remember that one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Robinhood. Yeah, I mean... Look, just to go back to the CRV thing, you said at the outset of the conversation that this was either a growth fund or an opportunities fund. That makes a really big difference. Explain, please. Because, well, an opportunities fund typically exists to back up your winners.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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In other words, if the venture fund is producing some big winners, the opportunities fund exists to deploy more capital into those companies. Right. as opposed to a growth fund, which is you'd be underwriting brand new companies from scratch. Typically, an opportunities fund is limited to companies that you're already an investor in through your venture fund. So that makes a big difference.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, if CRV has a billion-dollar venture fund and only a $500 million opportunities fund, it may just be the case that they don't need all of that capital to back up the winners. They can do their pro ratas out of the main fund. So I suspect that that might be what's going on. I actually think this is a pretty good time to have a growth fund. Why?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, because a lot of the crossover capital has left the ecosystem a few years ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, well, Tiger and SoftBank are still around, but there are other very large investors, hedge funds, and so on, who had come into the ecosystem with billions of dollars a few years ago, and now they've left. And some of those funds that you're talking about, like Tiger used to be $10 billion funds. Now they're $2 billion funds. Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Interesting. But to your point about the size of the venture fund, the bigger the venture fund, the bigger the winner that you need to make that pay off, obviously.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so because of the power law, so to take an example, I don't know, let's say you've got a billion dollar venture fund. Let's say that at IPO, you own 10% of whatever that winner is. And because of the power law, your fund performance is really determined by your best outcome, right? Yep. So
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
In order to take a $1 billion venture fund and say, deliver a 3X, so $3 billion of returns, and your best company you own 10% of, that implies you have a $30 billion winner in that fund. And there are precious few outcomes where you have a $30 billion IPO, right? Yeah. This doesn't happen very often.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Yeah, you're going to need to have a meaningful ownership position and a massive company in order to make a fund that big payoff. The data that I think LPs look at shows that smaller venture funds tend to perform better for this reason, $500, $600 million funds.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So yeah, I personally wouldn't want the pressure of a billion-dollar venture fund. That would be really hard. As a $500 or $600 billion venture fund, you kind of need to have or want to have like a decacorn outcome to make that a great fund. But to have to have a $30 billion plus outcome, it's even more difficult.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Well, I thought there was other data in the study that should calm people's fears that TikTok would somehow be used as a political weapon. So in the same survey, you're talking about 95% of adults that use TikTok say they use it because it's entertaining. So that's the main reason people use it. And only 10% of accounts followed by US adults post content related to political or social issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Yeah, but so basically 90% of the accounts that get followed aren't even posting political or social issues. They're there for entertainment as people watching dance videos, as people watching. I mean, the main thing I use it for is to watch Wrestling highlights. You're a wrestling guy? Yeah, I'm a wrestling fan. What? Yeah. You're into this kabuki theater of wrestling?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm over 20. I get my WWE on TikTok. You do? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The crazy thing is I know all those names.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Oh, those are so great. That was the era of Hulk Hogan, for sure. Saturday night's main event.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Oh, Savage, yeah. Savage is great. Yeah, I mean, look, my all-time favorite was Stone Cold Steve Austin. Stone Cold is great. I marked out the hardest for Austin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Totally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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They're moments. When Hogan turned heel and joined the, was it the NWO? That was like a big moment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Oh, yeah. Andy Kaufman. Yeah. Well, that was like in the 1970s, wasn't it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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That was where I grew up in my hometown of Memphis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, it was a huge deal where I grew up because this was on the local news. Yes. When I grew up in Memphis, there was no professional sports teams, OK? All we had was the Memphis State basketball and wrestling every Monday night at the Mid-South Coliseum. That was it. That was professional sports.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Lawler was so popular that he could have been elected mayor. In fact, I think there was talk at one point of him becoming mayor. Wow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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jimmy hart oh yeah yeah he was amazing he was like the main heel manager for a while yeah okay this is before the wwe took over i guess it was called wwf back then but there were all these little fiefdoms and kingdoms and mid-south wrestling was like one of those kingdoms and lawler was like the king of it and then you had all these guys come in and out and wrestle friedberg you ever watch wrestling and what do you think of this tick tock survey
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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My point was that it's mostly an entertainment app where people go to watch dance videos, wrestling clips, style influencers, and so on. And I think that this idea that it's somehow a propaganda tool around, you know, programming our youth. I think that's a moral panic that's been exaggerated and,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I bet more than 50% of young people are getting their news from podcasts. And those podcasts get chopped up and clipped. And then people watch them on TikTok. Yeah, for sure. I bet that's how it's happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Sorry, I just don't understand. It's emissions. Sulfur dioxide.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If the Russians were actually doing it, it's the stupidest use of $10 million ever. Of course. Those podcasters already had their own channels. They're already putting out lots of content. And this other content is a drop in the bucket. I think, Jamath, the issue with what you're saying is just there is so much content out there already. People create it for free.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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People create it because they have a career in it. There's a whole long tail of influencers. There is so much content out there already through podcasts, through websites. It's all being chopped up that trying to do it as some sort of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
disinformation strategy, I think is very hard to do because it's just when there's billions and billions of impressions, any effort that you try to engineer ends up just being a drop in the bucket. I agree. Yeah, it's definitely a drop in the bucket. It makes sense in theory, but it makes sense in theory. It's very hard to do in practice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The mainstream media lies so much, that's what's creating the distrust.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay, let's give- How is $10 million going to accomplish anything if that story is even true? It makes no sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It looks like a conspiracy theory.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think it's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. They took podcasters who were already successful and paid them to release content through a less watched channel. That's the.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then they in these guys are allegedly these guys are already live streaming like 24 seven.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I think your recitation of the polls there kind of mixes up a couple of things. There's popular vote polls, and then there's electoral college, which goes state by state. If you look at pretty much now all the main pollsters, you look at Tony Fabrizio, you look at RealClearPolitics, they're now showing
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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that trump is winning the electoral college right now he is up in almost every swing state including i think michigan which is pretty surprising clearly there's been a huge swing towards trump over the last week or two and look there's still 25 days to go so anything can happen i don't want to overstate this but yeah this is a good example right here showing that i think the electoral college is is 296 to 242 what is fabricio
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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He's just a Republican pollster, but his accuracy is pretty high.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, another guy who I think is more neutral is Mark Halperin, who is a pundit who has been very accurate this election cycle. Remember, he's the one who broke the scoop that Biden would be replaced by Harris. And he even said exactly when it would happen. And he predicted it down to the day. He was exactly right about that. And if you follow his account, he is now saying that both
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Republican and Democrat insiders that he talks to are both saying the same thing, which is their internals are now showing Trump ahead in every swing state or almost every swing state. And things seem to be breaking Trump's way right now. Again, there's 25 days left.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But if you're wondering why is Harris all of a sudden doing interviews, it's because their internals started showing that she was in trouble. So they decided to get her out more.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, yeah, exactly. Which one is it, do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, I think it's what I predicted a couple of months ago. It's the doom loop. So what I said two months ago is that if Harris gets behind, she's going to have to abandon this sort of basement strategy of not doing interviews. She's going to have to start doing interviews. The problem is she's not good at interviews. And if she does more interviews, she's going to fall further behind in the polls.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And it could cause a doom loop. So that's where we appear to be right now. I said that on August 30th.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Oh, boy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Let me just follow up on a point Shamath made. Shamath said that she had to be crisp. If you look at any of these interviews, they're the opposite of crisp. She's asked softball questions by like Stephen Colbert saying, why are you running for president? How are you different than Joe Biden? And she doesn't have good answers. She starts free associating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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She gives these very long-winded answers that don't go anywhere. She says she can't think of a single way she's different than Joe Biden when pushed on that. It's very strange.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Why would she do an adversarial interview?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. This whole idea that I didn't treat Cuban respectfully is nonsense. Just watch the tape. I don't even keep all that. I know. Somebody asserted that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Right, so the pollution was good? Turns out it was good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Good job, Jacob. Thank you, my friend. Yeah, now we have allin.com slash tequila.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Wait, so you're saying that it wasn't Democrats who basically...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I thought Nancy Pelosi cast a spell or something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But Vinod wants us to be very clear that we need to stop all this disinformation that somehow Democrats are behind that storm. We can assure everyone that it was just precipitation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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People aren't taking that seriously.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Allin.com. Allin.com. That's our website. It's like this thing is real.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund. It will take three and four and five and six weeks for us to really know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market, and this is where, Larry, I agree with you, is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies. And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
I'll name them. I'll name them. Go ahead, Chamath. Let me get you in on this. Number one, prior to the WTO, China imposed a bunch of export duties and taxes on a whole bunch of goods to control airflow, okay? That prioritized domestic supply. As part of coming into the WTO, China said, hey, hold on, we'll limit these export duties to only a specific set of products.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And then they cap those duties at agreed rates. Number two, they eliminated export quotas. They historically had export quotas to manage the volume of goods. Under that WTO commitment, they agreed to phase out all those quantitative restrictions on exports, except were explicitly justified under WTO. Number three, they removed the export licensing restrictions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Number four, they ended state trading monopolies for exports. Number five, they liberalized foreign trade rights. The point is, People thought that China was gonna be a honeypot of economic activity, and it turned out to be a sucking sound, a grand sucking sound of opportunity where the globalist corporations saw a massive labor arbitrage.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
So it's fair to say that it was done with the best of intentions, but it was a bad deal. And they got one over on us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
There is a major issue that the United States has that's much bigger than China, which can be framed in the lens of resiliency and the ability to fend for ourselves. there are supply chains that have many single points of failure. And independent of whichever country that single point of failure exists, it could be an ally or it could be a foe or it could be a frenemy, that creates risk.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And I think what we are learning, and David's right, it was really highlighted during COVID, we are not in a position to take care of what we need. So if I had to very precisely answer Ezra's question, I would say that we need to measure and protect four critical areas.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Everything else I think we can deal with, some inefficiency, some single points of failure, but the following four areas, Ezra, I would say are sacrosanct. Number one is all of the technology, both the chips as well as the enabling technology around artificial intelligence. It must be a robust, largely American supply chain. It must.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
You cannot have single points of failure outside the United States because what you see is even in allied countries, Their posture towards things like free speech and other things can ebb and flow. Their posture on trade, their posture on defense. Okay, so that's number one. It can change. Number two is energy. We have a critical deficit of electrons in America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
We do not have the capability we need to make the energy we need quickly in many ways. We have supply chain issues on nat gas. We have critical supply chains that can be shut off by China around photovoltaics. So whether you believe in coal, whether you believe in nat gas, whether you believe in clean energy, we are in a very fragile- We got to shore that up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Number three are there are critical material inputs that drive the material science of the future. Rare earths are an example. Going back to chips, things like gallium, things like phosphorus even. So we have a critical minerals and rare earths and material science input problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And then the fourth, Ezra, are pharma APIs, so that when American citizens get sick, we have the ability to not just make it, but also design it and manufacture it. Because some of these APIs, the active principle ingredients for many of the drugs, require very convoluted and complicated processes, cold chains and the like.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And again, there, we depend on folks whose view of the United States can change in real time. So if I had to say to you, Ezra, what I would expect is if the United States government, whoever was in charge,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
would put those four things on a board, then detail out all of the key inputs, measure how much we can make ourselves versus import, and then basically try to level that playing field, we would be in a very good place.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Okay, trade deficit, Chamath or Sachs, who wants to take it? I can start, then maybe Sachs can, Sachs. So let me actually start by giving some credit to where Biden did do a few things, right, just in the spirit of finding some common ground. Inside the IRA, I think that there were two things, and I've said this pretty repeatedly, but I just want to put it on the record again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
The ITC credits and the ITC transfer markets for those credits, the tax equity markets, our critical industries in America to support private investment in all kinds of very complicated markets, energy markets being the most important. And what the Biden administration did, to their credit, was remove the uncertainty because those things had to be renewed over and over again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And they gave us a very long window where we could underwrite investments. To your point, Ezra, that was smart. But it's important to also remember that in order to get Biden's budget done, what they did was they had Manchin roll over on permitting reform. And Ezra, you know this probably better than all of us. When you look inside of the CHIPS Act,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
As smart as that initial policy was, if you ask, why has nothing actually happened? Why have no fabs actually been built other than grandiose statements? The answer is that, which you speak to in your book. It's just this complete malaise and inability to actually get these things permitted and turned on even when it's right. So I just want to acknowledge that that's there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
So Larry, very importantly to your question, the thing that we have to acknowledge is that in certain countries, What you have is a very blurry line between private and public industry. And they have this very tight coupling. And again, I hate to go back to China, but it is the best example of this, where what do they have?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
We can use Korea, we can use Japan, we can use Germany, okay? There are instances where the government balance sheets support private industry. They can support them in three different ways. Number one is the tax credits that they can use, the subsidies that they can use to build the things that they need.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Number two is how then they can support that in the active selling and engagement in public spot markets to shape the demand curve of the things that are made. And then number three is the taxation on the backend, the terms of repayment and the capital cycle. Those are things that in the United States, we overwhelmingly turn the responsibility over to the private markets to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
We are the cleanest, the purest form of capitalism in that sense. But many other countries are shades of this. And again, let's not talk about China, which is a thing. So Larry, hold on a second. So Larry, so what you have is how do you defend dumping? How do you defend that? How do you defend spot market manipulation that drives American companies out of business? How do you fight that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And I think- Here's the problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Now we're talking about the Monte Carlo simulation of how to achieve the outcome. And what I am saying is there is just as much as you and I want to guess, the fundamental and honest answer is none of us know. The people in the White House, what they know, they will share a little bit at a time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Because the reality is if what you wanted was a white paper, or if what you wanted was paint by numbers, I think back to David's point, all that would do is just take any leverage that they had and give people the opportunity to shape their response.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And I think in traditional game theory, and again, in traditional game theory, I think the right thing to do is when you're playing poker, you play street by street. What's the flop? Make a set of actions. What's the turn? Make a set of actions. What's the river? Make a set of actions. And I think if you're going to play to win, this is what they should do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Keep their cards very, very close to the vest. Realize that you can't necessarily surgically go and attack the lithium market first, then the rare earth market second, because it all goes back to the same balance sheet. It's the same actor over and over.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Go ahead, David.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
So just on the recession question, and I'd like to give an answer to Ezra and Larry. I think that, and I've said this for about a year, it was clear to me that we were sneakily in a recession before. And the reason was the vast amounts of money and deficits that were being pumped into government services that perverted the actual GDP picture in America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
So as Doge sort of slows down that money flow, and as the consensus in Congress gets to a better budget, I think that you're going to see that the government was probably responsible for 100 to 150 basis points of just waste. And if you take that out, you will technically be in a recession. That was independent of these tariffs. And I think that that's where the true economy, Jason, was.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And I think that we're going to just find that out. So that's that. On where we go from here, I can give you an anecdote and I'll give you a projection. The anecdote is this weekend, my wife and I were in bed and a person called me, very successful businessman who was representing the president of a country saying, hey, Chamath, I need some advice. What do we do here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And we walked through the three things that he and his government, that they government, were trying to figure out because they wanted an off ramp. They were like, I'm ready to cry, uncle. We're ready to tap out. And again, he was calling me as a private citizen, but I think this conversation was very instructive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Number one, he's like, look, we have these really high tariffs on inbound American products. We're happy to cut these things to zero. And I said, well, you should do that. Second, while we were exploring, he's like, yeah, you know, we have an enormous capital purchase with Airbus. I said, cancel it, swap it to Boeing. He's like, done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And then the third, which was interesting is he's like, we need to import an enormous amount of energy. And I said, well, who do you give that concession to right now? And it was a non-American company. And I said, well, why wouldn't you just RFP that to an American business and let them compete? And he's like, we'd be open to that as well. So he said, you know, we're getting prepared.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
We want to find a way to talk to the Trump administration. And I'm like, great. However, I can be helpful. I'll be helpful to you. I got off the phone. I looked at my wife and I said, if even 30 of these 75 countries do a deal anywhere remotely close to this, this was an enormous win. So let me give you my projection, Jason, of what the art of the deal could be here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
What you do is you can rewrite Bretton Woods 2.0. What was Bretton Woods 1.0? It was fixing exchange rates. It was setting up the IMF. It was setting up the World Bank. Those were the conditions on the ground post-World War II had made a lot of sense. What would we do if we had to write the Mar-a-Lago Accords right now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
I think what we would do is work backwards from the question that Ezra asked and the answer that I gave. How do we create resiliency in these critical markets? Number one, a framework for that. Number two is how do we create limits for government-sponsored intervention against capital for-profit companies, many of whom are American? so that we can actually compete on a level playing field.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And then number three, very simply, if you can do business in my country, why can I not do business in yours? And I'll just give you that story for one second. I was responsible. I was the head of every single entity of Facebook outside of the United States. I opened every market. My team and I created a framework for dominating We figured out how to crack Brazil, India, Russia.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
You know the one market that we never could ever make a single iota of progress? Say it, Jason, with me. Well, China, Russia, Iran. No, we won in Russia. So my point is, in every single market except one, is it that we were just lucky in 174 markets and one we were stupid? No. So I think that the Mar-a-Lago Accords, this sort of Bretton Woods 2.0, is the outcome, Ezra.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
It will basically use tariffs as a way to get these governments to a table and allow us to negotiate a much fairer economic quid pro quo.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
No, no, no. Not that they work something out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Ezra, in Biden, it was George Clooney that was making the call.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
That's not what happened. Ezra, can I just make sure that this is clear to you? Yes. This is a 150-year-old American business. I have no interest in that company except a friendship. These are Americans hiring Americans trying to compete with China who were very negatively affected. And all I said was, why don't you have a chance to explain what's happening on the ground?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
My point that I was trying to make, and maybe I didn't make it clear enough, so let me set the record straight. The Trump administration, what I have seen as a businessman, is willing to hear the conditions on the ground. As a businessman, when I was building, Ezra, just to be clear, critical rare earth supplies for America under the Biden administration,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Battery can materials to compete with China under the Biden administration. AI chips to be the best inference solution under the Biden administration. I couldn't get a call back. That's just the facts. Not because I wanted anything, just to tell them what was going on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
That is insane.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And you keep using the word deal making, listening to people. Listening to people is not deal-making, Ezra. It's just listening to people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Is this really the argument here? I will tell you what I've seen and David's seen much more. What I have seen from the president is he takes in hundreds of opinions and starts to figure out what the ground truth is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And the reason is when you only listen to one or two, every president probably deals with this, you have this information asymmetry problem because you are the president of the United States. And so how do you cut through it? You talk to hundreds and hundreds of people and you triangulate what the truth is. So it's not like he's giving any favor. He's collecting information.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
That is a good process. You want the most powerful person in the world to get to the ground truth. Go ahead, Larry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Makes no sense, Larry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Ezra, your accusation of me tried to infer some form of corruption or some form of dealmaking. None of that happened. Again, I'll tell you. I connected the White House so they could hear on the ground what's happening from a company who is very negatively impacted by the tariff so that they had the complexion of that feedback as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Ezra, I'm willing to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Just to be very clear, I have given way more to the Democrats than I've given to Donald Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
I didn't say anything about your donations.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And by the way, what's crazy is I was the same intellectual person I was under Biden that I am under Trump. It's just that it seems like the Trump administration is like, well, this is a smart guy with some opinions. Let me listen. And by the way, and Larry, you know this. These are some very close friends of ours that we share mutually that would not even return my calls.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
So it is a little personal for me as well, Ezra, just to be honest with you. I'm not going to go there, but the point is- That's fair. I have never seen a single iota of any form of anything other than just gathering information from the Trump. They've never asked me for anything. They've never tried to direct me to do anything. They just want to know what's going on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
When you ask them, hey, can you talk to such and such a person?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Ezra, you can agree with this. Francis Fukuyama is probably one of the most polarizing modern academics in America. As you read him, people end up in, they're very pro-Fukuyama or they think Fukuyama's insane.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
What do you mean by that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
No, no, no. I have two questions. Larry, just tactically, what do you mean by the destruction of the revenue collecting mechanism? That's question number one, which was just, I just want to understand what you meant. But second question, which is more broadly, Larry, if you were president for a day, just give us the Larry Summers plan. Like what is the counterfactual to what's happening now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
You can include tariffs. You can include Doge. I just want to understand how you would frame the solution to what ails us. So maybe tactically just talk about the collections part because you referenced it and then just more strategically what the Larry Summers 2.0 plan is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Let me tell you my experience. I get audited every year automatically. And the reason you get audited every single year is typically the way that you acquire your wealth creates complexity. 700, 800, 900 page tax filings. Now, you don't do that yourself. What happens is you typically pay a large big four accounting firm millions of dollars to do it. Deloitte, PWC, Anderson, et cetera.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Every year that I've been audited, the biggest delta has been about a thousand bucks. In this case, I actually was owed a thousand by the US government last year, which was- What'd you spend it on? Incredible. I'll spend it everywhere. So Larry, just so you know,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
It's not the honeypot you think it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Wait, what about Larry Summers 2.0? Would you like to do your Larry Summers? Yeah, before you leave. I want to know what the counterfactual is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
You guys have like a liberal cuddle party or what are you doing?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Let me give you the more practical day-to-day example, because those are these albatross projects that are largely a byproduct of ineptitude and corruption. But let me tell you a more tactical example so that you can understand why what Elon and Trump are doing is so necessary. So as I told you, in 2020,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
On the back end of COVID, I started a business to build battery cathode active material in the United States, okay? So that's a business we need so that when you want to electrify everything you want to electrify, there are batteries that we can make that's not reliant on the Chinese supply chain. It made sense. The guy that I started it with worked for Elon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
The other guy I started it with was a professor at Stanford. And the third guy I started it with was the head of battery engineering at Toyota. A more complete group of people, I think, you couldn't put together. So we start to build. We get a deal with General Motors. So far, so good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
But eventually you hit a point where in order to really commercialize, you need some form of government acknowledgement that you're good. And the way that you do that is you apply to the DOE. And the DOE has a very legitimate grant program that tries to accelerate these key things, especially things that are critical. We went through that program, Ezra.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
We paid a couple million dollars in consulting fees to the people that we were told to pay it to. And we were rejected. Okay, fine. Kept going. I kept funding the business. And then next year, last year, we applied again. 125 companies applied. 25 were shortlisted. We all went through incredible diligence. We won. Incredible validation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
At the end of that entire process, so really two years from when I started, and millions of dollars, we got $100 million federal grant from the DOE and $50 million from Michigan to build a plant in Michigan to help re-domesticate battery cam in the United States. It turned out that in that same period while we were going through that rigamarole, Stacey Abrams got $2 billion after 30 days.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
And I just ask the question, what is broken inside of the government that that's possible?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
It's hopelessly corrupt. A company of 50 people, 50 people, where none of this money goes into our pockets. We take that money and we then have to raise more money. I have to put in more money. We try to hire people. We try to build a battery factory that can basically give us resilience against the Chinese, which I think is great. They're an incredibly strong and viable competitor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
In 30 days, she got 20 times more than we did. How do you explain it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Can't you acknowledge it's insane that somebody can get $2 billion after 30 days? I
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Larry's giving it about a B plus on the Harvard grade scale, which might be inflated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
What was the issue with the metrics that I gave you, Ezra? You don't think they're complete or- I don't think they're remote. You want the unit of measurement? Kilograms? Dollars per kilogram? I don't think they're remotely complete to the policies we're seeing. I think you're processing us.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Jason, Nick, you can show some photos here. Oh, we do have photos. Okay. I know if we're allowed to show them. My wife sent me a letter to read on the air. So let me just open this up here. What, this is an open letter? It's an open letter. Who's the letter to?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Okay. Dear Gwyneth Paltrow.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Oh. There's a love letter to Gwyneth? Okay, I'm just going to read this here. Last night when I met you, I learned in that moment that pheromones are not a myth. They are real and apparently trademarked by you. You have the kind of femininity that could destabilize the stock market. I left the encounter slightly dazed, unsure if it was your presence or an as-of-yet unlisted goop candle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Okay, wait, let's just stop here. Let me just mansplain what she's trying to say here, guys. Wait, are you saying that Gwyneth crashed the stock market? Gwyneth Paltrow is hot as balls. Okay, that's the mansplain. She crashed the market? She has so much aura and riz. David, you have to, I mean, I don't know if we have the picture where David met her at the JPM conference, but she is so kind.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
She's got high EQ. I got to say, so cool. I have to say, like, I've met a lot of stars. That's like a star star. That's a star star where you're just like, holy shit. You're just kind of like a little bit in awe. She's a star. She's a star. Look at that. There she is. Fifth bestie Gwyneth Paltrow. G-po. Nat was stunned. Nat was stunned. I was stunned. We were all stunned.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
So wait, are you saying that Nat has a girl crush? I think so.
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The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
my white house invite this uh secret mailman he must hate you or something i don't know i gotta get invited to something i think that you're breaking the party i guess i'll see everybody in f1 you're a great you're a great family man so at least you're but you're always busy with your family so you i think people i try to prioritize the fam i got young girls what am i supposed to do you know oh my gosh big shout out big shout out to yuri and julia miller i think uh yes incredible and what they're doing to inspire people to get into science is just
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The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
You know, the awards are enormous. It's like $3 million awards, which I think is just kind of like it's an amazing reflection of how important this stuff is. And so far the last two years also had a little tear, had to shed a little tear because they do these things where like, you know, you bring some of these folks that have been impacted positively. There was a girl who had her genes edited.
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The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
She was literally on her deathbed. And this guy, David Liu, who won the Breakthrough Prize, did a very targeted gene edit. She's alive and thriving. And she gets to present the award to him. And you're just like, oh, my God.
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What are you wearing?
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The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
So Nat's wearing Armani Privé, and I'm wearing Loro Piana. which is like a double-breasted tuxedo.
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The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
I cannot comment on the material choice because it was just... Wow, that is... Absolutely, wow.
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The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Did you see the... Nick, do you have the picture of us with Zoe Saldana? Oh, there's us in Friedberg. Oh, Friedberg's good. Oh, there's Zoe Saldana, the Mr. Beast. Who's the guy with the man bun? Marco Perigo. Great guy. This is Zoe Saldana's husband. A cooler, funnier, fun dude. That guy should be at every party. Really? Every party. The man bun? Every party. He definitely looks like he's caring.
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The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Look at Zoe Saldana's tattoo on her chest.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Jimmy looking thin. Did you guys see the picture of Julia's dress? I just want to say one thing about Julia's dress. Did you see Julia's dress? I haven't. Let's take a look here. This is an insane story. So this is Julia Milner. So the cool thing about this, guys, is this is... This is a very incredible and famous painting by Raphael called The School of Athens. Yes.
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This is like a visual manifesto of human knowledge. And so there's all these very important people, Aristotle, Plato, Socrates, Pythagoras, et cetera. Anyways, she got the license, I think, from like the Vatican. And then she worked with Dolce & Gabbana to make it into a dress for the occasion just to celebrate learning. But there she is with our boy, Jimmy Donaldson.
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The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
So anyways, it was a great event. Thank you, Yuri and Julia, for including us. All right, guys, I got to wrap. All right, David, I miss you. Thanks for the invite. All right, Bison. I will hand deliver Jason's invitation for 2026.
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The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
No, not true. Not true. Larry, that's not true. That feels emotional and nice, but it's just not accurate. So let's just establish a couple of facts about quote unquote, the markets. Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently and sometimes inversely to each other. There's the stock market. and there's the bond market.
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The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right, Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar. That is what the fundamental stock market does.
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And what we have seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close to zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats and Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages. What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion.
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The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago. What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact. You can debate whether that's bad or good, and I'm willing to debate that with you, but that's a fact.
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And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues. And we don't know what the unknown known is. And let me be very specific. In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack.
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And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy. Normally when you see an acute reaction in the bond market, the underlying reason tends to be some financial calamity. in a participant.
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The thing in that world where if you had this like Jarvis-like thing that can reason, what do you think it does to products that you use today where the interface is very valuable?
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So for example, if you look at an Instacart or if you look at an Uber or if you look at a DoorDash, these are not services that are meant to be pipes that are just providing a set of APIs to a smart set of agents that ubiquitously work on behalf of 8 billion people.
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What do you think has to change in how we think about how apps need to work, of how this entire infrastructure of experiences need to work in a world where you're agentically interfacing to the world?
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To your point, the quality is not good. But when the quality is good enough, you'll actually prefer it just because it's just lighter weight. You don't have to take your phone out. You don't have to search for your app and press it. Oh, it automatically logged you out. Oh, hold on, log back in. Oh, TFA. It's a whole pain in the ass.
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Of all the developers that are building apps and experiences on OpenAI, are there a few that stand out for you where you're like, okay, this is directionally going in a super interesting area, even if it's like a toy app. But are there things that you guys point to and say, this is really important?
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But let's walk through the protein modeling example.
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You should write a book, Jacob. Maybe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I think this section I would label as AI and the law. So let me ask maybe a higher level question. What does it mean when people say regulate AI? Totally. Sam, what does that even mean?
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Just to build on that, Sam, the architectural decision, for example, that Lama took is pretty interesting in that it's like, we're going to let Lama grow and be as unfettered as possible. And we have this other kind of thing that we call Lama guard that's meant to be these protective guardrails. Is that how you see the problem being solved correctly?
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Right. I would like to shift to the gossip part of this.
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Gossip? What gossip? Sam, let's go back to November. What the flying f*** happened?
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I think maybe the two big vectors, Sam, that people always talk about is that underlying cost and sort of the latency that's kind of rate-limited a killer app, and then I think the second is sort of the long-term ability for people to build in an open source world versus a closed source world. And I think the crazy thing about this space is that the open source community is rabid.
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What was that guy's name? He was there for like a Scaramucci, right? Emmett's great.
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So one example that I think is incredible is, you know, we had these guys do a pretty crazy demo for Devon, remember, like even like five or six weeks ago that looked incredible. And then some kid just published it under an open MIT license, like OpenDevon. And it's incredibly good and almost as good as that other thing that was closed source.
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Can I ask a different question? You have created, I mean... It's the hottest company. And you are literally at the center of the center of the center. But then it's so unique in the sense that all of this value you eschewed economically. Can you just walk us through why?
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Yeah, give you five points. What was the decision back then? Why was that so important?
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But in this weird way, now that you're running a company, yeah, it creates these weird questions of like, well, what's your real motivation?
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I think people think it's a little bit of an ulterior motive.
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So maybe we can just start with that, which is tell me about the business decision to keep these models closed source. And where do you see things going in the next couple of years?
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What's your preferred model of organizing open AI? Is it... sort of like the move fast, break things, highly distributed small teams, or is it more of this organized effort where you need to plan because you want to prevent some of these edge cases?
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Come back to the game. Yeah, come back to the game.
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Sam has a great style of playing, which I would call Ram and Jam. Totally. You got to just get out of the way.
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We'll see you next time.
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But you do two boards. And congrats.
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I think that these guys are going to be one of the four major companies that matter in this whole space. I think that that's clear. I think what's still unclear is where is the economics going to be?
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He said something very discreet, but I thought was important, which is, I think he basically, my interpretation is these models will roughly all be the same, but there's going to be a lot of scaffolding around these models that actually allow you to build these apps. So in many ways, that is like the open source movement. So even if the model itself is never open source.
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It doesn't much matter because you have to pay for the infrastructure, right? There's a lot of open source software that runs on Amazon. You still pay AWS something. So I think the right way to think about this now is the models will basically be all really good. And then it's all this other stuff that you'll have to pay for. The interface. Whoever builds all this other stuff
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is going to be in a position to build a really good business.
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My other takeaway, I think, is that the, I think what he also seemed to indicate is there's like so many, like we're all so enraptured by LLMs, but there's so many things other than LLMs that are being baked and rolled by him and by other groups.
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And I think we have to pay some amount of attention to all those because that's probably where, and I think Freeberg, you tried to go there in your question, that's where reasoning will really come from is this mixture of experts approach. And so you're gonna have to think multi-dimensionally to reason, right? We do that, right? Do I cross the street or not in this point in time?
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You reason based on all these multi-inputs. And so there's all these little systems that go into making that decision in your brain. And if you use that as a simple example, there's all this stuff that has to go into making some experience being able to reason intelligently.
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This is going to be catnip for all these protest organizers.
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Honestly, I will just say, I think you are doing a marvelous job. That... I was shocked at the design. Shocked meaning it is so unique and high quality. I think it's amazing. It would make me drink tequila.
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I mean, why not? I mean, it's great when we get barricaded in by all these protesters, we can drink the tequila. Did you guys see Peter Thiel? Peter Thiel got barricaded by these ding-dongs at Cambridge? My God.
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This was not on my bingo card. This pro-protester support by Sachs was not on the bingo card, I got to say.
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By the way, some of these camps are some of the funniest things you've ever seen. It's like there are like one tent that's dedicated to like a reading room and you go in there and there's like these like... Mindfulness center? Oh my God, it's unbelievably hilarious.
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Did you guys see the clip? I think it was on the University of Washington campus where one kid challenged this Antifa guy to a push-up contest. Oh, fantastic. I mean, it is some of the funniest stuff. Some content is coming out that's just hilarious.
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It made you sad? It actually elicited an emotion? Meaning like commercials? It's very rare that commercials can actually do that. Most people just zone out. Yeah, they took all this beautiful stuff and heard it.
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Yeah. I think this is... You guys see that in the Berkshire annual meeting last weekend, Tim Cook was in the audience and Buffett... was very laudatory. This is an incredible company. But he's so clever with words. He's like, you know, this is an incredible business that we will hold forever, most likely. And then it turns out that he sold $20 billion worth of Apple shares in the quarter.
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A caveat. Which, by the way, if you guys remember, we put that little chart up, which shows when he doesn't mention it in the annual letter, it's basically like it's foreshadowing the fact that he is just pounding the sell. And he sold $20 billion.
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I mean, it's an incredible business that has so much money with nothing to do. They're probably just going to buy back the stock. Just a total waste.
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I think the problem is, J. Cal, like, you kind of become afraid of your own shadow. Meaning, the folks that are really good at M&A, like, you look at Benioff. The thing with Benioff's M&A strategy is that he's been doing it for 20 years.
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And so he's cut his teeth on small acquisitions and the market learns to give him trust so that when he proposes like the $27 billion Slack acquisition, he's allowed to do that. Another guy, you know, Nikesh Arora at Pan W. These last five years, people were very skeptical that he could actually roll up security because it was a super fragmented market. He's gotten permission.
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Then there are companies like Danaher that buy hundreds of companies. So all of these folks are examples of you start small and you earn the right to do more. Apple hasn't bought anything more than $50 or $100 million. And so the idea that all of a sudden they come out of the blue and buy a $10, $20 billion company, I think is just totally doesn't stand logic.
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It's just not possible for them because they'll be so afraid of their own shadow. That's the big problem. It's themselves.
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Plus, why are they body-shaming the fat iPads?
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That was a great scene.
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They killed it. I think a lot of people would be very open-minded to an Apple car. They just would. It's a connected internet device, increasingly so. And they managed to flub it. They had a chance to buy Tesla. They managed to flub it. There are just too many examples here where these guys have so much money and not enough ideas. That's a shame.
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What about a gaming console? They could have done that, you know? There's just all these things that they could have done. It's not a lack of imagination because these aren't exactly incredibly world-beating ideas. They're sitting right in front of your face. It's just the will to do it.
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I think the reason why the car could have been completely re-imagined by Apple is that they have a level of credibility and trust that I think probably no other company has, and absolutely no other tech company has. And we talked about this, but I think this was the third Steve Jobs story that I left out. But in 2000, and I don't know, was it one? I launched a 99 cent download store.
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I think I've told you this story in Winamp. And Steve Jobs just ran total circles around us. But the reason he was able to is he had all the credibility to go to the labels and get deals done for licensing music that nobody could get done before. I think that's an example of what Apple's able to do, which is to use their political capital to change the rules.
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So if the thing that we would all want is safer roads and autonomous vehicles, there are regions in every town and city that could be completely converted to level five autonomous zones. If I had to pick one company that had the credibility to go and change those rules, it's them. because they could demonstrate that there was a methodical safe approach to doing something.
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And so the point is that even in these categories that could be totally reimagined, it's not for a lack of imagination. Again, it just goes back to a complete lack of will. And I understand because if they had, if you had $200 billion of capital on your balance sheet, I think it's probably pretty easy to get fat and lazy.
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On the blog post, they have this incredible video that they show of the coronavirus that creates a common cold, I think the 7-PNM protein. And not only did they literally predict it accurately, they also predicted how it interacts with an antibody, with a sugar. It's nuts.
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So you could see a world where like, I don't know, you just get a vaccine for the cold and it's kind of like you never have colds again.
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And your preference of nut milk.
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Can we have some soy-like to them, please?
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Can I just replay something and just make sure I heard it right? I think what you were saying on the open source, closed source thing is, if I heard it right, all these models, independent of the business decision you make, are going to become asymptotically accurate towards some amount of accuracy. Not all, but let's just say there's four or five that are
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well-capitalized enough, you guys, Meta, Google, Microsoft, whomever, right? So let's just say four or five, maybe one startup. And on the open web. And then quickly... the accuracy or the value of these models will probably shift to these proprietary sources of training data that you could get that others can't or others can get that you can't.
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Is that how you see this thing evolving, where the open web gets everybody to a certain threshold and then it's just an arms race for data beyond that?
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Let's go back to that first section of just the cost and the speed. all of you guys are sort of a little bit rate limited on literally Nvidia's throughput, right? And I think that you and most everybody else have sort of effectively announced how much capacity you can get just because it's as much as they can spin out.
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What needs to happen at the substrate so that you can actually compute cheaper, compute faster, get access to more energy? How are you helping to frame out the industry solving those problems?
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What about the device side? And sort of, you mentioned sort of the models that can fit on a phone. So obviously, whether that's an LLM or some SLM or something, I'm sure you're thinking about that. But then does the device itself change? I mean, does it need to be as expensive as an iPhone?
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Is it that that it has to be more complicated or actually just much, much cheaper and simpler?
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I agree with Philippe's diagnosis that the Fed will really be focused on liquidity. I agree with that. In fact, Nick, I just sent you something on Signal, if you could just throw it up here, which is a really interesting view on subprime. And what it shows you is the spread between where credit acceptance is versus capital wants.
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And the point in bringing this up is that when you look back historically around these subprime lenders, whenever these guys start to see price to books just start to escalate and get to highs, it tends to portend a liquidity crisis. It tends to show that things are about to roll over. And from that perspective,
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I think that there are some blinking yellow lights that the Fed needs to take seriously. But then where I deviate from Philippe's perspective is I think that the Fed is getting increasingly political in how they want to react to the conditions on the ground. I'll give you two perspectives. The first is if you actually read the press release,
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Either the word weight, waiting, or some synonym of that word was littered in there 22 times. It just seemed like an incredible amount of verbal gymnastics to try to justify why they weren't cutting. And if I had to just take that at its face value, I would at least put some percentage of probability that you have to assign to this case where Powell
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
views that if this lever is the only thing that he has going into the midterms, it's almost as if he's holding it back. Because I think that if you look at some of these leading indicators, particularly on the liquidity side, I agree with Philippe about how important that specific metric is.
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I don't believe in the Fed put, we've talked about this, but I think the liquidity measures are starting to blink yellow. And I think that if the Fed really wanted to get ahead of it, they could cut. But the political overlay is cutting helps Trump. And I think there's this tension between these two people. And I think that the Fed is saying we're not going to cut.
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
It's not what I'm insinuating. What I'm saying very directly is that the Fed is acting in a manner that is as much politically motivated as financially metric motivated because the financial metrics, some of the most critical leading indicators, particularly around liquidity and the credit health of the American consumer, are blinking yellow.
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
So right now, they are choosing to ignore these historically useful leading indicators. And the only reason that I can come up with to ignore it are political reasons.
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Queen of Kinwada.
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Do you think Powell thinks that this Trump thing is going to work? So he's holding bullets in the chamber because he's worried about inflation?
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I would agree with that.
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
By the way, that trade deal, we also eliminated the 2% surtax on big tech companies. And then Howard just said today that they're going to announce a $10 billion order from Boeing on top of that as well.
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I mean, if we're in a sustained period of 4% to 5% rates, I mean, we should talk about that at some point. But there's huge implications to the economy if this thing stays where it is. Huge.
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
That was fun.
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Just explain that just a little bit.
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Tokens over tariffs, yeah.
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They definitely have the best models in many domains. I would say that the CodeGen models from Anthropic are really good, but in many other domains, including general information and chat, I think Gemini is exceptional. So what is the problem?
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The problem is that they were effectively at 99% share, and now we were always just waiting for that shoe to drop, which is where they started to go from 99 to something less than 99. And the point is, now that it has happened, It is very easy for anybody to build a model that precisely calculates the economic value of every single basis point of share shift that happens.
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And what you saw was an initiation of that process this week. So what do you do? The problem is that this is not Google's problem. This is a consumer choice issue and they have chosen something different. And whether we like it or not, and whether they like it or not, the reality is that ChatGPT is running away with it.
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And if you look at the growth and the share that OpenAI is seeing, it's quite an incredible thing. So what does one do? I think that instead of waiting for data, I think that you have to assume that you're gonna go from 99% share to 75% in the next two years, as an example. And you need to start asking yourself what will go wrong.
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And if you can ask yourself that question honestly and red team that, then I think the conclusion you get to is you need to start very aggressively integrating Gemini as the front facing window to Google Inc. But again, as I sort of said last week, that requires a combination of taste and courage. Otherwise, what will happen is if you're waiting for the data,
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You're just going to get caught off guard because Apple will do things and then make a press release months after the fact. OpenAI will announce a press release. Facebook will do something. And what that does is it destroys the morale of the company, of the brilliant product managers, of which there are many, and the brilliant engineers, of which there are many inside of Google.
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If you're sitting around waiting to react to some sandwich served up by your competitors, that is a terrible approach.
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It's probably net negative on the margins for him. Really hard for him.
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No, I would say it's 110% of the profits.
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He says... Oh, my God. Philippe, listen to this fucking story.
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I thought all five of them were amazing. I did think that Sergey did a really good job. I like Nico Rosberg a lot. I did too, for sure. I'm really excited to see what Francis does next after being the mayor of Miami. Maybe governor. We'll see what the party says. I think they were all great. Tony Robbins, I have to say, his energy is very unique.
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You know, to your point though, to just to add one thing, which I love this framing. Here's another data point. If you were going to make the case that we need to go into harvest mode, and say, we don't know the rate of change of the search business, so let's just have as much money on hand so that we have as much optionality. That's a very reasonable and fair strategy.
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You would probably not spend $75 billion a year of CapEx on making these models. The opposite is also true. If you're going to drain your cash at a rate of change that's greater than it needs to be to the tune of an extra $75 billion a year, There's probably a case to be made, well, if we've made the cake, let's sell the cake.
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You know, we've made the dog food, let's have the dogs eat the dog food. It's the in the middle strategy of both spending the money, but then stage gating the product that is the worst outcome, in my opinion.
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What do you do, Jacob? What do you think?
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Or would you? Is this the rate that makes the most sense in your mind?
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And when you're near it, I didn't have many interactions with Tony up until that first time, really. I'd met him through Peter Guber a couple of times when I was part of the ownership team of the Warriors. Peter's a co-owner. They're very good friends. But I'd never really spent much time with him. He's a special person, you can tell. There's a big energy there.
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I hear you. I would just remind the Google management team that very, very, very smart people like Philippe and others who control trillions of dollars
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Well, collectively, are not making the decisions about today, but are taking the trail of breadcrumbs of what they see today and guesstimating what 18 to 24 months in the future looks like. And all I'm encouraging them to do is, I think that that data point from is the beginning of a stream of such data points.
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And I just encourage them to inoculate them from the morale hit that will come if they don't have an explicit aggressive strategy. And instead, if they become reactive to external data, it's really demoralizing.
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Oh, I think that's exactly what they're seeing.
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No, no, no. What I'm saying is that's absolutely what they're seeing. The demonstrated strategy is emblematic of exactly that. It's the rationalization. My point is there's something that you can't rationalize because you don't know until it's presented to you, which is what is the other company doing? They don't have spies inside of OpenAI.
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They don't know what the OpenAI product strategy looks like. They only hear secondhand what the OpenAI growth looks like. And all I'm saying is it's a bit of a sort of Damocles. At some point, the sword drops. You're not in control of it. And once you start to see a trend, that's the rationalization that I think puts companies in a very difficult and tricky strategic situation.
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It takes a lot of courage to say, oh my God, like it's like, but Buffett said this, like Buffett has this very famous thing of just putting his CEOs on the spot and saying, stop telling me all these things that can go right. Let's go paint the death case. What can absolutely go wrong and bread team me the solution and then justify for me why you haven't done it. And all I'm saying is-
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If you start to think about like, for example, you saw OpenAI today, Fiji Simo, she's leaving Instacart, right? She's going to go and be the CEO of apps inside of OpenAI. You're seeing a level of talent concentrate that I have not seen since I was at Facebook. There was nobody we couldn't get when we thought we were building a model that was totally orthogonal to Google.
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Now, it did not mean that Google diminished in any way, but it creates a different use case. In that example, though, the social use case was very much non-cannibalistic to the blue links. And to your point, David, if it turns out that question asking is not cannibalistic to search, Google will be fine.
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All I'm encouraging them to do is play the scenario where it is cannibalistic and figure out what to do.
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I find that I am using search a lot less.
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Yeah, I've, yeah, I've learned how to ask things that I've always wanted to know, but didn't even know were possible. Right. But all of that, to me goes to open AI and to x, I use rock, that's fine.
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Guys, that bucket is getting built right now and there are nowheresville in that bucket. How are you going to show up in 18 months and say, oh, that new bucket that's so shiny, pick me, pick me. This is why it's a strategic error.
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Yeah. I walked through this last week, but I'll do it again, which is... I think that today, the part that I agree with you is this whole view on search is antiquated and it makes no sense. I think instead, what you need to think about is where are the inbound actions into the house that is Google, right? Google Inc.
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And you have to have a very simple way of deducing what is the value of that inbound action. And if you rank them, the inbound actions to the Google search bar are obviously way more valuable than the inbound actions in all these other apps. I would start in those places that are more bottom of the list on the money side, but high on the list in terms of intention and behavior.
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and I would redo the experience around Gemini. But that requires taste. And cannibalization, that you have to be willing to take the hit off. Which service do you think is number one, YouTube? I think your idea, Jason, around YouTube is a very smart one because it's a juggernaut business. I also think Workspace, we use Workspace here every day, Gmail, Calendar.
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I think Workspace could be really interesting as well. Gmail is a great one, yeah. Inside of Gmail. And it is going to get better. Like there are smart people thinking about this. All I'm saying is that the market will now start to price this decay in.
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He is into it. You're bringing up something which I think is very important. When you're at a junction this important, who has the gravitas to come in and actually make a difficult change like this? I think in general, it's the founders. And in fairness to Larry and Sergey, these are two brilliant, brilliant guys. They've done it once.
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And in fairness, they probably did it kind of a second time when they created Alphabet because now you have these other businesses that are pretty impressive. Now they're just going to have to do it a third time. But they're going to have to impose their will and they're going to have to develop some very specific tastes. This is nothing against Sundar and the team, by the way.
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This is just to say that The only people that can come in and say, guys, we're going to make a change that could have this negative impact to a $1.8 trillion company are people that are going to feel it the most. They will feel it more than anybody else. And so if they say that it should happen, they'll have the moral credibility to make it so.
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Best way to watch the F1 play poker. By the way, when you're live at the F1, it's a little bit hard to get into the experience because like the cars just zip by you. So you get to see the car for like a few seconds and then kind of like dead time.
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I mean, it's just so hard. It's hard to make money. And if you view making money as some derogatory thing and you put a bunch of impediments in the way, the downstream impact is interesting ways to make money will be out of fashion and simple ways of making money will be the only things that people do. The problem is that society doesn't move forward if all you do are simple things.
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You need people who are willing to put risk capital to buy these lottery tickets. And if you marginalize the upside, you're just gonna have exactly that, a stagnant society of marginal things that doesn't move along. And unless people fundamentally embrace that idea, we're gonna lose. We being America. Yeah, if you look, for example, in the last five-year period in China or Canada,
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where both of them, two totally different political regimes, but they both had the same thing happen, which is the amount of investment capital that went into both of those countries fell off of a cliff for two totally separate reasons. What is interesting is going to be what is the downstream impact of that in 10 and 15 and 20 years? And you can look historically back.
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And we know what this looks like, which is countries stagnate. in the absence of investment and risk capital. So you will become a marginalized, also-ran country. And not to slag Europe, but part of what Europe got wrong was that compact didn't exist. Too many administrators, too many hall monitors, not enough ability to put risk capital to work and actually get gigantic outcomes.
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So the most important thing we can do on that dimension is to figure out how to have less regulation, have these companies fight it out, and create the incentives for these smaller businesses to be bought and or to go public.
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Jason, it's constricting at the absolute worst time because what Philippe said before is we're in the midst, in the early phases of an entirely new economy that's going absolutely parabolic. But the people that are supposed to accelerate that innovation and make these companies come to life are going to run out of gas.
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Because if they don't return money to their limited partners, where are they going to get the incremental capital from?
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I think the way that I think about this as an LP, and maybe Philippe can talk about this as a GP, but as an LP, when I think about putting capital into different funds, I have a base return in my mind, which is I want after taxes, net of everything to generate about 10% a year. That's where my risk of ruin is basically zero. It compounds to infinity. I like the profile of my return of my assets.
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How do I get to 10%? Well, sometimes when I'm holding short-term stuff, I'm only generating 4% or 5% in paper. So then I have to go out on the risk curve. So I talk to a hedge fund. They're going to give me 12% or 13% net maybe in some cases. I try to understand their risk, but I can only get so much working. So then I have to go further out on the risk curve.
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Then I talk to some private credit and private equity guys who tell me, yes, I can give you mid-teens returns. Then I do the analysis on that and I think, okay, I'll give you some money, but they are going to lock me up for five or six years. it's still not enough to get to a blended rate of return of 10%. So then I go yet further out on the risk curve.
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Jason says to me, Chamath.
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I call my friends at Sequoia and all these other places. And when you talk to the venture investors, the problem is you are so illiquid for so long that the rates of return need to be in the mid to high 20s net to me. But when you look at the data of what's possible, they actually look like a three and four year hedge fund.
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And part of the reason is because of this strangulation of illiquidity that's caused artificially by administrations, by regulations, and by agencies like the FTC. The question is, if they didn't exist or if the regulations were a lot smaller, what would the upside return be? it's probably 500 to 1,000 basis points higher. Much higher, 100%, yeah. But I think at current course and speed,
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with the lack of IPOs and with the lack of M&A, you can't justify that asset class on its own, in my opinion, unless you think about it as like something that you're doing almost philanthropically.
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Jason, do you know what the distribution of these IPOs were by method? SPAC versus direct listing versus traditional IPO?
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I think it's almost, I think it's also- I think this might change. It's also worse than that. I think that they probably look at like Adobe Figma and they look at the cap table and they probably just make a judgment that, hey, I don't want these people to be billionaires. Yuck, I hate these people.
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But they don't understand, to your point, the waterfall effect of not returning capital to all kinds of other investors who are in the business of taking risk.
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Look at those meat hooks just going over the floor.
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And also the seeding. You seeded it in a very unique way with a couple of very unique family offices.
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I loved it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You have what, 53 billion under management?
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Something in that zone. So, I mean, obviously you've been phenomenally successful. Talk about the fees and the carry and how you decided how to set that. And then tell us how your competitors reacted when you announced this fund. I'm very curious about that. Both of those two things.
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You guys make this shit up to try and make entertainment out of me. I'll tell you the truth. You tell me the truth. I'll tell you the truth. I'm going to tell the truth. Jason says, guys. I'll see you guys later. It's not like he's going to talk for more than three minutes anyway. Go ahead. You said if they're going to comp all the food, just make sure you give a great tip. Huge tip. Huge tip.
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So typically what happens is people come to see me in my office, I'll ask some folks to do diligence, and then I sign up to an LPA. Is that how this works? Like, if I'm interested, is that what I do now? Or is this totally different?
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Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Me as just a normal person.
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So do you think like Sequoia and Dries and Kosla Founders Fund, how do they respond? That's question one. And then two, does it change the behavior of the fundraising cycle or process for you and your partners when you're evaluating companies or for the entrepreneurs? Does any of that change? So how does competition react? And then how do companies and CEOs react?
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That's the insight that, and you mentioned this on our call earlier today, that I actually think is really, really, really powerful. The MAG-7 was this set of correlated seven companies that sucked up all the attention, all the money, they moved in unison dollar for dollar. Now that that correlation has broken down, it allows you to ask this question, which is, what is the real MAG-X companies?
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And to your point, if it's a 25 company basket, you're absolutely right. SpaceX would be in the basket. It's private. So Stripe would be in the basket. So to be long some random public company because it's public and ignore SpaceX and Stripe would just be stupid. So to your point, that's really powerful. The optimal basket of the companies you'd want to own for the future
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because of these rules and regulatory burdens, are partially public, partially private, and so you need a vehicle that can straddle both if you want to own it. I think that that makes a ton of sense.
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Will you actually go out on a limb and try to publish what you think the version of that index is as you construct it inside of that fund?
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We'll let your winners ride.
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And instead, we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
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Saturday for me. So you like the content best. Okay. Saturday was, I woke up, I went straight to Jeff Gross's house, me, Travis, Helen Youth, and a couple of others. We played poker until four. I ran to the hotel, took a shower, went on stage at five.
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It was great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
All right, start the show. Let's get the show on the road.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Chamath and J-Count level two. Totally makes sense. Freebrook's like, yeah, got it. No problem. We had like 19,000 pounds of food. And he goes, is $175 appropriate?
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free calculated and so jason says jason says no okay and then freebrook says hold on oh fine fine i'll double it to 350 now he was around he was joking i gave the guy a thousand bucks it was gave a thousand bucks and i said actually i think we should give two three thousand so then we tipped the woman an extra 2k so we gave her 3k for a 10 person dinner which i think is appropriate she was ecstatic the food was phenomenal it was great go to shiso if you're in miami
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Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
So I think Freeberger is right that the reason why the Japanese central bank tried to raise rates, I mean, just by a tiny amount, was because they are dealing with inflation. If you look at that inflation chart and you go back to when their inflation was zero, roughly in 2020, the exchange rate ratio between the US dollar and the yen was about 100 to 1, meaning one US dollar could buy 100 yen.
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Now it's at roughly 150 yen to the dollar. So their currency has massively depreciated over the last several years. And a big part of the reason why is because, again, they're central bank is offering roughly zero, and you can earn 5% in UST bills.
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So people are basically moving their money to countries that pay a lot more on their bonds, and they're even borrowing yen, like we talked about, selling the yen to then buy Australian dollars or US dollars to invest the money there. So there's huge downward pressure on the value of the yen. And the way this creates inflation is that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Japan is obviously an island that has very few natural resources, and it has to import all of its oil. So it has an advanced economy, but it needs to import a lot of resources. And so as its currency depreciates, the price of all those commodities goes up. And this is why you're seeing inflation in Japan.
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Now, when the central bank tried to solve this, it created huge jitters in the financial market because it was starting to unwind the whole yen carry trade, which is something like $20 trillion. And so the Bank of Japan backed off. And you heard the Japanese central banker said, we can't raise rates while it would create instability in the global markets. We have to wait until it's stable.
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But the problem is that raising the rates and unwinding the yen carry trade creates the instability. So what they're saying is we're never going to be able to raise rates. And the result of this is going to be more inflation in Japan. Their currency is going to continue to depreciate. They've been unable to defend it.
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And so what I would expect is that the US dollar is going to keep buying more yen. It's going to go from, I don't know, 147, 150 to some bigger number.
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And who's going to pay the price here is the Japanese consumer, because everything's going to cost a lot more.
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It'll be good for tourism because, yeah, you'll be able to travel to Japan much more cheaply. But if you're actually Japanese and you live in that country, you're going to see your purchasing power continue to erode. So I would expect big domestic problems in Japan, and eventually they may conclude that this system does not benefit them. Now, who does it benefit?
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You could argue that it benefits the United States because it has subsidized the purchase of our debt, right? Because again, so you have this yen carry trade of 20 trillion, and a lot of that has gone into U.S. bonds or U.S. T-bills, right? And so it basically is a huge subsidy to the U.S. Treasury's need to continuously issue more and more debt. We're issuing, what, a trillion dollars of
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net new debt every 100 days. So having the Japanese consumer subsidize all of this by taking it on the chin, you know, in terms of inflation in order to provide this yen carry trade, you could argue has been very beneficial to the U.S. Treasury.
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Well, I don't know. I mean, I tend to agree with Freeberg here that when you have massive amounts of debt, it definitely limits your flexibility.
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One of the reasons why Japan can't raise rates is because the their debt will become even more expensive, right? I mean, Freeburg isn't that part of the problem?
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Okay, so to analogize this to the US, our debt service costs are, what are they at now? Like well over a trillion.
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Just one other point is, I think it shows... the fragility of the global financial system. I mean, the market snapped back. As soon as the Bank of Japan backed off, basically capitulated, said, okay, fine, we can't defend our currency. We're just gonna let it keep depreciating. We're gonna let inflation keep raging.
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As soon as they declared that, then the market snapped back, but it just showed in that 24 hours, Putting aside all the panic porn that was on social media, because I think that was overdone, it still showed how fragile the global economy is. The yen carry trade has injected roughly $20 trillion of liquidity into the global economy, and that is propping up all sorts of things, right?
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And that is subsidizing U.S. government debt. And you just wonder if... the yen carry trade were to end, because let's say, for example, the Japanese people don't want to experience hyperinflation, then what would that do to the global economy? It just showed how rickety the whole system is.
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In fact, now's an even better time to put that trade on because the Bank of Japan's basically just capitulated and said that they can't raise interest rates while things are so unstable. So we know they're just going to keep rates where they are. So if I was one of these traders, I'd just put the trade back on now.
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Look at that form. I like that guy.
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I don't think they have that plan specifically because I just think that you would need a supermajority in Congress to do something like that. And I just think that this election is going to be too close regardless of who wins to provide that kind of mandate. I mean, sadly, I think we do need to get government spending under control. But I think it's a long-term political problem.
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Hard to beat them at virtue signaling.
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And I just think our political system doesn't have the will. to fix it. I do believe Republicans would be better than Democrats on that, but I think that's the truth of it. To go back to your first question on the state of the economy, I had lunch with a very prominent investor yesterday who's very plugged in with the hedge fund community. And he said that the sentiment shift
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'd say, again, within hedge funds, professional investors, public market investors, it had been very sudden that people were now very worried about the risk of a recession. And I do think that the Airbnb revenue that Chamath cited is a big factor. Airbnb stock went down 15% in one day on soft demand. And what's driving all of this is consumer weakness, or at least fear of consumer weakness.
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You mentioned the rise in unemployment. It went from 4.1% to 4.3% month over month. So 4.3% is still a pretty low number by historical terms, but to jump so much in one month, that's a pretty big increase. And then, of course, it's up from 3.5% a year ago. So we're seeing pretty big increases in unemployment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. So these are big changes. There's real evidence of consumer weakness. And I think professional investors are getting quite worried about the risk of a recession. And I guess this one last point on this is that If you were to remove the impact of government spending, it's pretty clear the private sector is in a recession.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, like we've been talking about, government's been going hog wild with spending. The government is running 6% of GDP deficits. The latest Q2 growth number was something like 2%. So if you force government to live within its means and to cut its way back to balance, we would definitely be in a recession. We'd have a negative growth rate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I do think that the economy is looking pretty shaky all of a sudden. Whether we actually tip over into recession in the next few months, I'm not sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The reason why the markets could rally in the midst of a recession is because interest rates get cut. We've already seen that the expectations of rate cuts have now grown substantially. The markets are starting to price in 100 to 150 basis points of rate cuts this year, where before it was more like 25 to 50 basis points. So obviously, lower interest rates make stocks go up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I think that's the main driver of the rally you're seeing right now, J. Cal, not the prospects for increased efficiency, because I think those prospects were already there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I've been predicting recession for like three years now because I just think when you jack up interest rates so suddenly, so violently, you get recession. So I guess if you pin me down, I'd say recession. And I'll tell you one of the reasons why- Interestingly, I've just checked the notes, Sachs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I know, I know. Look, it's the same recession that I've been predicting. It's very simple. When you jack up interest rates from near zero to five and a half percent, that makes everything much more expensive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, people have been saying it. I think you just did. If you look at job creation over the last four years, there's been no net new job creation for native-born Americans. All the job creation has been foreign-born or... Because native-born Americans have too high of a wage expectation.
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I agree. I don't think it's too high.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think it'd be a lot better to let their wages rise. But in any event, let's not get political on it. Just to the point, about recession, Jason. I mean, yeah, look, I've been predicting the same recession, but I think one of the reasons why it might finally come now, first of all, you've got a lot of investors are suddenly worried about it. There's been a big sentiment shift.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think the other thing is I don't think we know all the bad news yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, none of us were tracking the yen carry trade. I mean, it was something we may have heard of, but it's not like we were actively thinking about it until this past week. And the question is, how many more things are out there like that? And I also think that the pattern with this administration has been to hide the ball. They hid by insinuity for years. Not to get political, though.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Not to get political. Biden, Biden, Biden.
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It's not political.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm making an economic point here, actually. And you guys can decide if I'm just being partisan or whether I have a good point here, which is, look, I think the MO of this administration has been to hide the ball. And any good news they would have reported. Do you think that they're reporting all the bad news? I don't.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think there's more bad news that's going to come out after the election because there's too many incentives for people to hide it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
When you said that the yen carry trade didn't have a big impact, that's because the Bank of Japan backed off. So if they kept going with it, we don't know what the impact would have been.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
When we had this global sell-off on Sunday, Monday, a lot of people were sharing this chart online and pointing out that Buffett was sitting on this gigantic cash pile, by far the biggest cash pile that he's ever sat on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We then had a market recovery, so people aren't really talking about this, but it does stand to reason that Buffett is building up a war chest here, and he's somewhat defensively positioned. You can see that, you know, was it like 20, 21, 22 years? the cash pile went down because he started making a bunch of investments. Now the cash pile is really high.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So it seems logical to infer that he thinks that the risk reward right now is not great on public equities. And again, he's just a little bit more risk off.
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I hope I don't get you guys- The CDC says we can treat COVID like the flu now. I mean- You see that? They finally admitted after two years of shutting down schools, the economy, everything. Like, oh, it's just the flu. We can treat it like the flu.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, but a safer way to do this is just to invest in a US T-bill that's paying 5%. You don't have to take the risk of the market going down. You borrow yen at 0%, invest in T-bills at 5%, and you pocket the difference.
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Well, I think this is a good decision. I mean, Google clearly is a monopoly. In fact, it's at least two or three monopolies. They have monopoly in search, they have monopoly in advertising, and they at least have a dominant position in video with YouTube. And I think that it would be great if the government broke up this company. I mean, it should be it should be at least three or four companies.
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I mean, there should be search should be its own company. Advertising should be its own company. YouTube should be spun out. And then I don't know if G Suite should be a separate company or should get lumped in with search. I don't know. But I think this should be at least three or four companies. And I think Republicans will be on board with that because, frankly, Google is a threat to democracy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you go to Google and search for search results of anything related to the election, it is clearly so biased. Explain that. Yeah. Give an example. If you want to get the latest info on Kamala Harris, just search for Donald Trump. I mean, compare the search results. And I've done this and I've posted the results online.
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If you search for Trump, you'll get a bunch of negative articles on Trump and you'll get positive articles about Harris. And then conversely, if you search for Kamala Harris, you'll get positive articles about her. And it's like Trump doesn't exist. It's clearly they have put their thumb on the scale here in favor of the candidate they prefer, as 90 something percent of their donations indicate.
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What's your take?
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well okay that's their explanation yeah okay fine but the problem is yeah yeah they're waiting the publications they want to wait. Why is Daily Beast like some authority on the election? They're the most partisan, ridiculous, untrustworthy publication when it comes to the election. So why should they be top four? I mean, why isn't Fox News in there? Why isn't New York Post in there?
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Why isn't Substack in there? There's a lot of great publications on Substack. So they are very selectively choosing the publications who, you're right, are in the tank for the Democrats. So they are reflecting the bias of the mainstream media, but they are being very selective about what media they show. And even so- Here's Kamala Harris.
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I want you to put on the screen this. Yeah, go ahead. You can do it. I tweeted some receipts. Please click on the screenshot so I can show you the side by side. and you'll see what I'm talking about. Okay, I search for Donald Trump. What do I get? News about Harris. This is on my phone, so this is mobile. The articles are all basically about Harris criticizing Trump.
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Okay, then the second carousel is about the Project 2025 director stepping down, which is pretty tangential to Trump, but is a major Democratic line of attack on Trump. So this whole thing seems rigged, to support the DNC point of view on Trump. Same thing. You search Donald Trump latest news. Same thing. There's some weird story about Donald Trump's nephew.
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I didn't even know about this person, but somehow they're elevating it to be a major story. And again, the first carousel is all about Harris. Now, keep going, please.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay. Now we look at Kamala Harris. Top stories. Just Harris. No news about Trump. Got it. Next one. Same thing, okay? So the point is that when you search for Trump, you get news about Harris and criticism of Trump. When you search for Harris, you get positive news about Harris. There's no way you can tell me that this is fair or this is a result of an algorithm that hasn't been tampered with.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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This is very clearly programmed. I mean, you get different carousels depending on which candidate you search for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. Yeah. Of course, I understand that the mainstream media is hopelessly biased. Please remember you said that when we discuss it. No, no, no. Hopelessly outnumbered. Some other time instead of saying it's conspiracy theory.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The mainstream media is biased. We all know that. You can defend it however you want to defend it. Nobody's defending it. Okay, fine, so we agree on that. I don't know why you're making these- I agree with you five times on it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay, my point about Google is they're reinforcing the bias because they uprank the mainstream media sources and they downrank the sources that provide a dissident opinion or an alternative opinion. Again, why is Vanity Fair upranked above the New York Post? Is that because of their journalistic quality? I don't think so.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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One way to think about this- Hold on, why is it that the Kamala Harris search result does not say anything about Trump, but the Trump search result has a carousel on Kamala Harris. That looks programmed to me. Do you want an answer? Yeah, that looks programmed to me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Before we leave this topic, can I just show this chart? Okay, look, this is a chart showing- We've seen the chart, we know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Okay, well, people in the audience may not know, okay? Okay. Employee donations to party are, again, it's well over 90% of Democrats. This basically represents the- constituency of Silicon Valley, okay, inside these companies. We also know that Google search results use more and more manual interventions. Freeberg, you agree with that, right?
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Okay. So all the people doing this stuff are Democrats. They're liberal. And you're telling me that this does not have an influence, it does not create bias. Come on. You can see the bias in a common sense search for Trump versus Harris.
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I think it would be like 70% or 80% if it weren't for the bias of the mainstream media being boosted by big tech.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Maybe not quite that percentage. But if you look at issues, polling on issues, The Republican position on most issues is like a 60 to 70% winner. And yet the elections are a nail biter. And I think a lot of it has to do with the influence of the mainstream media and big tech.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'm not inflamed. I have a point of view that I think is informed by facts and evidence. The fact of the matter is the vast, vast majority, well over 90% of the employees at Google are liberal Democrats. And the Google search does rely on manual actions and the people performing those actions are, again, overwhelmingly from one side of the political aisle.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Furthermore, we can see in the search results that they do appear to be hopelessly biased in favor of one candidate at the expense of another. I mean, you're asking me to deny the evidence in my own eyes and ears. I can see what's happening. I think most people can see what's happening. I do not think that Google should be putting its thumb on the scale on one side of the election here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And Jason, you may have a point that it's reflecting the bias of the mainstream media. I don't think that makes it okay. I think that Google should have to work a little harder to be neutral. And they could do that easily by balancing their news sources.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I was very happy with it. I was very happy with the pick. I mean, so first of all, I think I said last week or two weeks ago that I thought the pick would be Shapiro, Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania. It was such an obvious choice for Harris because this whole election could easily come down to 10,000 votes in Pennsylvania. It is the tipping point state.
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And Harris probably has to win that state in order to win the election. And you have a very popular governor of that state. He's got something like 63% popularity in that state. He's also perceived as a moderate. So he would have helped Harris position the ticket more towards the center, which apparently is her goal since she's repudiated all of her far left positions.
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So it just seemed to be so perfect. And then what happened is there was a smear campaign by the progressive left against Shapiro. He was the only one of the VP shortlist candidates that seemed to get all this oppo dumped on him before the pick. And that campaign against Shapiro seems to have spooked Harris, who seems to be fairly risk averse.
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And she went with this guy, Tim Waltz from Minnesota, who is a darling of the radical left. And I think that he's already presented many opportunities for attack by the right. There's three big issues that I think Waltz is going to have to address because Republicans are already landing blows on him. Number one, stolen valor.
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He has clearly, and on several occasions, overstayed the extent of his military record. Look, obviously, I've never served, but I know that among people who have, this is a very big deal. Big issue. Big issue. Campaigns have imploded over this. So that's number one. He's got the stolen ballot problem. Number two, on trans, he seems to have bought into every aspect of the trans agenda.
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And he's made Minnesota a sanctuary state for minors who want to come there for puberty blockers and sex reassignment surgeries. even without parental consent. The law that Gavin Newsom just passed or signed that drove Elon out of the state, Tim Walz got there first in Minnesota. So he is not a centrist. He is very far on the cultural left.
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And then I'd say like a third issue that I don't even know if people have really gotten to yet, but I think it will eventually come up, is that Waltz was insanely authoritarian on COVID.
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I mean, this is a guy who told us that Minnesotans live by a motto of mind your own damn business, but he set up a COVID stitch hotline so people could rat out their neighbors for leaving the house or having dinner parties or walking their dog without a mask. And it was it was real. I mean, violators could be punished by 90 days in jail.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So, again, this guy has been to the left of Gavin Newsom on cultural issues. And I think that's going to be a big problem for the Harris campaign. And I don't really understand why she went with him when there was such an obvious alternative who was available, who could have given her a swing state, who could have positioned her as a moderate. What are your thoughts?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Let me say something about this issue, frankly, in defense of Kamala Harris. I don't think she's anti-Semitic, and I don't think that accusation should ever be made without real evidence, okay? That being said, Van Jones, who is in a position to know, because he's an important political pundit in the Democrat Party, said that one of the reasons why Shapiro was passed over is because of this issue.
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And he said that anti-Semitism had become marbled into the Democrat Party. I don't know exactly what he meant by that.
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Yeah.
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Yeah. So I don't think Harris is. I think she's just risk averse and didn't want to alienate certain factions within the Democrat party. I agree with that statement. Right. But in the process of being risk averse, she chose this guy, Waltz, who I think has got much bigger vulnerabilities than Shapiro does. And I think the question now is whether Waltz is even going to make it to the convention.
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I think he might have to drop out.
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Yeah, let me make a couple of points there. So number one is Trump had a lot more time to vet and get comfortable with his VP candidate because he's been the presumptive nominee for many months, whereas Harris inherited the nomineeship without a primary battle, right? Biden just abdicated less than three weeks ago.
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So that's the reason why she didn't really have time to go through a courtship process for her VP. Now, as to the vetting process, I agree with you. I think it's somewhat inexplicable because these stolen valor claims have been out there for a long time.
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When Waltz ran for governor, there were former soldiers who came forward and said, yeah, he was supposed to be the commander of our National Guard unit. He was supposed to go with us. And he quit right before we got deployed to Iraq. And so these complaints have been out there for a while.
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Moreover, he has many public statements saying that he was deployed to Operation Enduring Freedom, which I think was Afghanistan, and he simply wasn't. I mean, at least that's what I understand to be the case. So...
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Is that... He never saw combat. And he said that he carried a weapon in combat, in war. So this isn't like... a use of soppy language once or twice. This has been around, circling him for many years now, and there's been many examples of him saying these things on video. Let me ask a question here. So my point is just this. Can I just say one thing? I think the vetting was very poor.
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I think the vetting was very poor.
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Look, in my view, this was an easy choice. Even if she didn't like Shapiro, she could have gone with Bashir or she could have gone with Mark Kelly. Remember, the astronaut Mark Kelly was one of the top two contenders. At least that was what was reported. In other words, she could have gone with a moderate from a swing state.
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Okay, so why not Mark Kelly?
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Okay. He's on the ball. I'm not saying it has to be Shapiro, but the remit here was really clear to strategically. You want to choose a moderate from a swing state. That's it. Because this whole election can come down to one state and you want to basically portray yourself as a moderate. So this is a very easy assignment. Find me a moderate from a swing state. And what do they do?
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They choose a radical from a safe state, safe for Democrats. They got Minnesota locked up. Why do they need to take on this baggage? There's no reason for it. And Chamath, I do think they rushed the vetting, but I think it wasn't because of passion or something like that. I think they're running out of time because remember, Biden was supposed to be the nominee.
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Harris was supposed to be on the ticket as VP. They weren't supposed to do this process. And then all of a sudden it happened three weeks ago because Biden abdicated.
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Totally. And let me tell you, if Walz doesn't drop from the ticket, I predict there'll be gold star families protesting all of their events. And that's going to be a real headache from now till the election.
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It's pretty clear that he, at a minimum, exaggerated his service and he exaggerated his rank.
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Listen, whenever I meet a vet, I always thank them for their service. But those vets will tell you, you can never exaggerate what you did.
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You can't say you were in war when you were not in war.
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Anybody home, McFly? Anybody home? Any home?
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I mean, it is crazy. I want to thank Phil for the shout out.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Well, let's just go around the horn. Who voted for Trump? Let's all raise their hands for those who voted for Trump. Ready? One, two, three, go. I voted twice. I voted twice. Me too. For me, it was so easy.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I've been saying this since I'm blue in the face, but I'll try it again. I think that the mainstream media has been working hand in hand with the Democratic Party to propagate and move forward an agenda that tried to vilify Donald Trump. I did not know that when I initially encountered him in 2015 as a candidate.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But what you're supposed to do as an adult is once you start to see a pattern of behavior You know, this is for the safety, security of your family. This is about how you think about economically taking care of your family. Like you have to re-underwrite decisions from first principles. You must be prepared to change your mind when you see important information.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I have said this till I blew in the face, but I'll say it again. If I think of all of the people in the political infrastructure of America that I have met and spent time with, from Bill Clinton on, I remember sitting and having dinner with Barack Obama the day of Brexit and getting a note that he read and he said, oh my gosh, and says, wow, the UK just pulled out.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I was sitting across from him that dinner. I've been with all of these people. The Democrats only come to me to ask me for money. The only politician that has ever called me just to have a conversation, just to say thank you and be kind, the only one has been Donald Trump. Isn't that incredible? Of all of the people, every other person has only ever called and asked me for money.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So what does that mean? I think what it means is that there has been a concerted effort to perturb the way that you interpret who he is. Separately, there's been a concerted effort to prop up whoever is sitting against him in opposition.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I think this is an opportunity to finally acknowledge that if you trust these traditional legacy sources of helping you to get to a decision, you're going to get tricked. There's that old saying, you know, fool me once, shame on you. But fool me twice, shame on me. Because I am now allowing this to happen. And I think that for a lot of Americans, that is what happened.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think it is really as simple as that. I think they were able to see through the veneer of an attempt to malign and corner somebody. And on the other side, an attempt to basically play on vibes and feelings and emotions. And I don't think that America wants that. That is not what they want in running the country.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
They want somebody serious running the country where you can have disagreements with them and you can still find an opportunity to work together with those people. I think it's that.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
You totally told me to go f*** myself and wouldn't give me any help.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah, I think that this is a really important tweet because it sort of tells you, Sachs, who's going to be left in the room. And if these are the only people left in the room, the last thing they're going to do is admit defeat.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I completely agree with you, and I'll go even further, which is I think that the Democrats will lose one of California or New York in the next eight years.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
They're not going to attack. If you think that the intelligentsia, quote unquote, the Bill Gates, Reid Hoffmans of the world that funds Dustin Moskovitz, that funds the Democratic apparatus at the highest level, if they can't change... What are the odds that the state infrastructure or the local infrastructure changes?
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think maybe on the margins, the local infrastructure can change more quickly and adeptly because it just costs a lot less money and it's much more concentrated. But I think the states are very laggard in that sense. And I think that they take the table scraps of what's left over.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So if you have the Democrats lead, there is no chance that unless they change the planks of their platform, that the state legislatures in New York and California are going to change what they believe.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Because money cannot overcome common sense.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
This is what I mean by a return to normalcy. These are normal people problems. How much does it cost to put food on the table? How much does it cost to drive from point A to point B? I want to send my kid to a school where they go and they learn the ABCs and the one, two, threes because they're going to have to graduate and compete with India and China.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I don't want to worry about indoctrination and all this other stuff. Absolutely. Yeah.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
What technique is that? 15 million votes?
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think the policies of the Democratic Party are fundamentally broken. they've become the exact opposite of where they were even 20 years ago. So the Democrats used to be the protector of free speech. Now they are pro-censorship. The Republicans are free speech. The Democrats used to be all about anti-war.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Now they are more likely to get mangled into all of these foreign misadventures in partnership with the military-industrial complex, whereas the Republicans have been a bulwark to war.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Oh, my gosh. I mean, that was the scariest and oddest turn of events. So I think that what happened is the policies, they just lost their way. Now, the question is, was it purposeful or was it by accident? And I think that belies the bigger question, which is just the people in charge of the Democratic Party, I think, to Sachse's point,
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
do they even have a sense of that they have to change or are they just so now fundamentally out of touch and they just believe what they believe so ferociously, they're going to have to go through maybe three or four or five more elections of just getting totally trounced in order to learn the lesson.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Hold on, Freebrook, what do you think before you ask the next question?
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
There are so many very powerful examples of how the media colluded with the Democratic Party to fundamentally lie about things that actually happened when it relates to Donald Trump. One of the most simple and powerful was the lie about Charlottesville. When I process Charlottesville, I'm probably one of those people, David, that you talk about. I was just so scared and angry.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I took at face value what the media said that Donald Trump said. And then I was really angry at Donald Trump until I saw the footage and saw that it was just a complete lie. And that is just an incredible shirking of responsibility that the media has undertaken. The deviousness, the dishonesty, it's really bad. And that's where I said, I have to stop. As a grown up rational man,
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
As the head of my family, I need to re-underwrite where I'm coming from. Well, head of my family with Nat, when she lets me be, but anyways.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But the thing is, I started to re-underwrite. And I do that every day in my day job. I'm running a company. Is 80-90 going well or not well? It depends on the conditions on the ground. When things are going well, I need to do more of those things. When things are not going well, I need to re-underwrite. Is it something that I'm in control of? Is it something that I've missed? How do I change it?
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
How do I get my team to be better? I live it every day. In investing, it's the same thing. There was periods where I was on top of the world and everything was working. Then there were waves where things were not working, but I still had to show up and do my job well. As it's turning out, in those darkest hours was when I probably have made some of my absolute best new investments.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
That would not have happened if I did not keep my feet on the ground and constantly re-underwrite and try to challenge my biases. There are so many examples that have happened to Trump that when you actually unpack them, there was a concerted effort to lie. And that is why it's important for folks to be able to suspend that judgment.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The second thing I would say is then you saw four years of the man in office. And if you actually separate the interpretation by the media who frankly just hate him with what he actually did, you take a step back and you're like, man, these accomplishments were incredible. For example, let's look at what happened with the Abraham Accords.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We have never been closer to substantial and sustained peace in the Middle East in any era of government under any president than we were when Jared Kushner on behalf of Donald Trump negotiated those agreements. And look how far we have slipped since then. And all of that happened as a result of the incoming government wanting to undo what was so logically right in the first place.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And part of that was to feed a media cycle. So again, I just go back to David, all of these normal people, and I know a lot of them as well. Speak to them. Yeah. Like, I mean, yeah, you guys need to just take a step back and take a beat and just think about something for a second. How do so many normal, high functioning, well-intended people switch sides? How did that happen?
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Well, I have no influence on this process, so I'm just totally spitballing. But people who I think are who I think are excellent. I'm going to put Bobby Kennedy right at the top of the list.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that Bobby has an opportunity to allow the transparency of information that will allow folks to keep doing what we've done or to change course in a way that right now I think is a little bit more difficult than it needs to be. I think Vivek Ramaswamy is indefatigable. I think he's a
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
you know, if you remember back to the Republican primaries, there was only one person that did not attack Donald Trump and it was Vivek. I think he believed in what Donald Trump was doing and was willing to sort of embrace and extend this idea. So I think he'd be a really good proxy. I don't know what role that looks like, but I just think that he would be It'd be amazing.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah. Just to go through the list, I think Tulsi Gabbard is so awesome.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah. Veterans affairs, I think.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
It's John Thune versus Mike Lee. Yeah.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And then the big cabinet positions that are left, I think defense, probably somebody like Rick Grinnell, who's already worked for Trump and was the DNI right at the end, I think. And then in treasury, it's, you know, I think people say it's between Scott Besant and John Paulson. I'm not so sure. I don't know. If I had governor, I think it's like probably Haskell.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But then, you know, I saw like you saw Jerome Powell.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
He's got until mid 26.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The difference this time around, which is so incredible, is that you're now seeing on X people asking all the neocons to be named and shamed, and they're creating these lists so that they can't worm their way in. It's the most incredible thing I've ever seen, where Have you espoused those views in the past? If so, the likelihood that somebody will
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Raise an alarm bell now so that you can't get near this administration. I've never seen anything like that before, actually. Yeah.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
That's a no-brainer. I would love to do that. Absolutely. Not full-time because I'm running a company, but if there was the opportunity to help, basically... Just put me on the Doge committee, if you wouldn't mind.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Elon did say this today, but he said, the A-team are running companies. We're all running companies. But if asked to serve, especially in a part-time capacity where you don't have to divest everything you own and you can actually just go and call bullshit and actually just make sure good decisions get made, it would be an honor to serve in that capacity.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think everybody should have given a chance. I want to say one thing just to build on- Oh, sorry.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I do want to give a shout out to Elon. And in one very specific way, you've heard all these stories where he gets obsessed about something and then he focuses on it at the sake of everything else and strips it down and gets to first principles, rebuilds it back up and it works. And as far as I can tell, basically when he decided that this election was going to come down to Pennsylvania,
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
on one hand and young men on the other. He just kept doing that one thing over and over and over again. Every time you turned on X, he was doing a rally. He was speaking to the residents of Pennsylvania and or young disaffected voters and getting them out.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And then his PAC built an infrastructure that rivaled the democratic infrastructure in terms of get out the vote and transportation with a lot less money and only in a month or two. This is incredible. Well, and then the sweepstakes was also a really good idea. It's really, really incredible.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Yeah, and so I think this is where- It was dismissed on its face because if any person spent eight seconds understanding the law, the judge dismissed it within an hour.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
When the legal infrastructure of America dismisses a case on its face within 60 minutes of it being heard, it means it is a farce.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Billion dollars.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The person on the Democratic side where I feel the most disappointment after all of this is Barack Obama. I think he, in the period when he was elected, to me was just transcendent. And I thought that this is a person that really was immune to getting assimilated into the board. And I don't know why I thought that, but I did think that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I was just so saddened to see the tone and the rhetoric from Barack Obama during this last homestretch. I think was reputationally very damaging to him. What did he say that offended you? It didn't offend me. It was just observing. Or disappointing.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
When the rhetoric was trying to propagate these lies, the very fine people hoax, all of these things, I just thought, he's so much smarter than this. The abortion ban. The abortion ban. He knows that these things are not true. Why is he saying... objective lies. I don't really judge politicians for doing it in general, but I never considered him a politician.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I sort of considered him here, just like this echelon above. And I was really disappointed that he chose to go down that path.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Down to the level of an average politician. Right.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
No, again, I would just temper and tone down that rhetoric. Nobody's blowing up anything. But I think step one is going to be a level of transparency so that doing the obvious becomes obvious.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I think that if you look back over 40 or 50 years, what has happened is that secretaries and political appointments have gone from get the best person in the job because they know it to here's political payola, if you will. And I think the pendulum has swung to too far of an extreme.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
That's why the swamp people are able to maintain control, because the person above them who's appointed doesn't fundamentally know the inner workings of the organization. I suspect what you're going to see is a radical push to transparency.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I think that when you combine transparency, and Sachs called for this, a version of the Twitter files for the government, I do think you're going to see that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
But if you combine that push to transparency with a handful of topics, you know, by the way, we introduced a long time ago this idea of zero-based budgeting into the lexicon and language of these political candidates that they used all the way through to the finish line. I do believe the Republicans earnestly mean it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And so I think when you put these two things together, Freiburg, I think what you will have is all of this laid bare. And then I think it'll start a debate on what to do. And I think the decisions about what to do will be so blindingly obvious. The low hanging fruit will save this country once we pluck it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
If you look at what Bobby posted to Instagram, Nick, I don't know if you can find it, but it was pretty telling on this dimension of the first inning is going to be about absolute radical transparency and sharing with the American people everything that's been under the covers. By the way, it's not just on that dimension, right? We're going to see the Epstein files.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We're going to see the Diddy lists. We're going to see the JFK file. I know that these things are sort of fringe conspiracy theory type things for some people. But the point is, from pillar to post, that first phase of this radical truth-seeking transparency is an incredible disinfectant that you can build from.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And he told the FDA, I think, something to the effect of pack your bags and keep your records. Now, let's take the hyperbolic part of it out. But it's the keep your records part that should be valuable because we deserve to have answers.
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Now, when you think at the same time that you have inventions like AI that can crunch every single piece of data under the sun and tell you the absolute truth, imagine when you put transparency and the government sharing incredible amounts of information with the compute power that the Googles and the Facebooks and the open AIs of the world are creating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
You'll know these answers to all of these questions. Vaccines, are they good or bad? When? How? Fluoride, is it good or bad? When? How? All of these drugs that have been approved, why? All of these drugs that have not been approved, why? You're going to start to see some really interesting things. Has there been research on the impacts of food on physiology? Were they suppressed?
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Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Were they not suppressed? So I think phase one is get it all out into the open.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
The incompleteness of the actual clinical validation studies, the authorizations and the waivers that were secured, how good or how brittle or how fragile was that data? By the way, I think what it'll also do, Freeberg, is if it looks like this data is actually of extreme high quality, you know what that does? It reestablishes trust in that institution, which is also a win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
So this whole thing is a win-win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
This will not be through FOIA.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I'm a knucklehead. Did you just sashay into your seat? I am right here. Show us your jazz hands.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that we're going to look back on this era, and I think it's going to last about 20 years or so, at least, which I call a return to originalism. We are returning to the founding principles of this startup called America, and I think it's incredible. I think Sachs is right. There's this unbelievable living document that that created this incredible experiment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We veered way far away from it. It's taken us a lot of courage to get back to that place where now you can actually let that guiding document govern a highly meritocratic country. So it's going to be a lot of hard work, but my gosh, it's just an incredible moment and opportunity. Everybody should just take a breath and remember that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I wished Lurie a hearty congratulations. Nick, can you show him the tweet?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Wow, it's a really good question. I think that there's many layers of the answer. But I think in its most basic calculation, I think that the bottom fell out of the Democratic Party. And if you look at why, there's a simple explanation and then there's the more nuanced explanation. I think the simple explanation is like they just lost the script.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
David Sachs should be the governor of California.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I am 100% serious. It's the fifth largest economy in the world. This is marked today as the day that I have decided that I am going to convince David to be the governor of California.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I'm just going to say that David Sachs would be an incredible governor of California. I'm not a candidate. I understand. I understand blah, blah, blah. Let's start the rumor right now. He's lying. He said it to me privately. There's no rumor. I'm just telling you right now that within two years, I will have convinced him to do it. It'll be the perfect time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Gavin Newsom has been terrible for the state. We have seen trillions of dollars of market cap exit the state in terms of corporations that have left. We have gone from record surpluses to record deficits. We have an education system that is failing millions of kids. What is going on here? We have taxes that are through the roof.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And when you spend more and more and more to get less and less and less, and it takes more and more out of everybody's pocket, What is the answer? The answer is you have to fundamentally change everything that's happening from first principles.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I'll take the other side.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I think that there was so many people that just got really tired of being spoken at by and labeled misogynist, racist, fascist, transphobe, whatever it was. And there was just these litany of these judgmental labels that would come out instead of engaging on the topics at hand. So I think the Democratic Party played this game of trying to use
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
I see sacks in Sacramento. See sacks in Sacramento. Not gonna happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
identities, genders, races, as a bid to basically get people that they thought should always vote in their direction to continue to support them. And instead what happened was people just started to think for themselves and say, hold on a second, I'm just a normal person that wants to be left alone. What matters to me?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
You're saying men don't want to work for Tesla or SpaceX because of abortions?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Listen, I'll say what I said again. He's a good human being. I would encourage you to get to know him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Just that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Take a beast, folks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
What? No veggie burgers? What are you talking about? Eat before you go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We're going to ban veggie burgers. They banned fake meat in Florida. I already texted Bobby to ban anything with soy lecithin, carganine, and xanthan gum. All that stuff is verboten.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Vegans better learn to find natural sources of protein because the unnatural sources
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
We have to tell you what to eat and what to do. Zantum gum continues to dysregulate your physiology. Zantum gum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Bye-bye. Love you guys. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And I think what Donald Trump spoke to was a desire for folks to have economic prosperity, a safe neighborhood, A predictable educational curriculum where these kids could go to school, not be indoctrinated and come out the other side and just know some useful skills so that they could get a good job and do better than they did. And all these basic truths ended up on the ballot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And so it was a bunch of perception versus just a bunch of hard realities. And I think Trump stayed focused and ultimately made sure that people understood that that's what he was focused on. And I think the Democrats just went to this place of demagoguery and labels. And I think it was just a resounding defeat. And David, I just want you to like, just to put a pin on how resounding it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
In California and New York, which I would say are the two most prolific bastions of elitist liberal thinking, Democrats won those states in some of the narrowest margins they've ever seen. I think in 2020, they won California by 29 points. It was barely half is what they won by this year. In New York, it shrunk to a 12-point margin. So what is this telling you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
It's telling you that the Democrats really need to retool and get back to first principles. It was a cataclysmic dismissal of wokeism, of cancel culture, of judgmentalism. It was a ringing endorsement of a meritocracy, of just plain, simple common sense, of talking with people and to people, being able to tolerate disagreements, remaining friends. All of those things were on the ballot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
And it was just an absolute resounding victory for just normalcy. That's what I think we saw. We saw a return to normalcy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
We're all influencers now. Did you guys see my deck this month? We're all influencers now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Now, that's a good bit, Jacob. That's good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The first is, I think the DOJ and the FTC are totally way out of their ski tips on this. This is a totally nascent industry. We don't have any good examples of end-user use cases, either in the enterprise or amongst consumers. We only have 18 months of spend history. It is true that we've spent probably $750 billion to a trillion dollars collectively now on things with the AI label.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But it is also true that that's probably generated less than $10 billion in revenue. So I don't see what they're exactly investigating. in an extremely immature market where we haven't yet seen one cycle of boom and bust so that we know what we're actually dealing with. So it's way too premature and it's just people afraid and tilting at windmills. The second part, the part that's mixed though is
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
We are seeing a clever form of deal-making that these huge hyperscalers are doing to work around the traditional constraints that you've had on businesses. Jason, you and I worked at AOL in a moment where AOL paid a very dear cost for essentially round-tripping revenue. Yep.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Microsoft had to go through a huge DOJ inquiry and a settlement decree, and they were in the penalty box for most of Steve Ballmer's tenure as a CEO. A lost decade, yeah. And the handcuffs came off when Satya took over that business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So I think what I'm trying to say is folks have become extremely sophisticated at replacing roundtripping with these complicated TAC 2.0, whatever you want to call it, credit-oriented deals. They'll finance you to buy their own chips. All of this stuff... has to be scrutinized a little bit more. So that part I support. But all of a sudden, launching an antitrust investigation makes no sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So I really think the inquiry should be coming from the SEC about, is this real revenue?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And capitalism. And you're exactly right. And innovation. I wouldn't even say it's Silicon Valley. It's like if you're going to go and build things, that are at the bleeding edge. You know, the government used to be the most critical supporter of that, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
If you think about space or defense, these are areas, the internet itself, the government was the partner of private industry to make sure that there was no regulation and that like really, really forward-looking innovation could happen. That should be their role.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
No, he's posting a meme. Okay, thank you. He put a picture on the internet. Okay. I mean, again, this is like the problem that we have, which is that he disclosed his position in a different way. Now, we don't know whether that disclosure is accurate because I think it was just a screenshot of like some statement inside of a Reddit thread, right? And then that got posted many times elsewhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Probably, yeah, I would guess. I don't know all the rankings, but... And I guess on YouTube, we got labeled with some COVID thingamajig. I mean, what is going on at YouTube? What a joke.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Is this accurate? I don't know. Because he has no obligation as an individual to do any of this stuff. Because he's not running a hedge fund and he's not running other people's money. Now, if he was acting in concert with other people, you could say, hey, hold on a second.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
If you're repping not just your money, but other people's money and you did this, then there's probably a disclosure obligation there. But at the end of the day, this is a guy that acted and basically created hype. And right now, the SEC does not have a framework to deal with that because the rules that existed didn't understand social media and whatnot. And he's also not a regulated entity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
He's just an individual. Now, if it turns out that he was selling while he was posting this stuff and trying to manipulate the market in some way, obviously they could find issue with that. But just for him being a credible influencer, and creating momentum for an underlying position, that in and of itself is not illegal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
This is kind of... The Wall Street Journal as well. If you look at the Wall Street Journal today, there's an entire article basically with the headline, is what Keith Gill is doing illegal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think you can view this in a different lens, which is here is an individual that is totally outside of the establishment that however he's done it, has gotten a hold of hundreds of millions of dollars, maybe even now billions if the stock keeps going. And I think that that for the establishment that controls those pipes, very disconcerting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And they'll do something that's even more dangerous, which is they can get synthetically short. So they'll, they'll add leverage to this, using all kinds of esoteric derivatives that other banks on Wall Street will happily sell them. And then when those are disclosed, then the Redditors can just pump it even more, which causes massive margin calls.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So I think, I think the thing that Friedberg, you're saying, though, this is this existential thing that comes back, it's happened in NFTs, it's happened in the dot com bubble, it happened in SPACs, it's happened in crypto. Are we supposed to protect people? And then the question is, who is the we?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And are you supposed to say, if you're an adult and you can read, then read the disclosures and you're on your own. That's what the SEC says. And that's what the rule of law has been. And so this is going to be an interesting test because instead of an organization, it's going to be a person, in this case, Keith Gill, who will be the face of what happens to the stock.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Because if a bunch of people all of a sudden plow into this thing, and then it goes to five, It'll be really interesting to see the reaction. Hey, you should have saved us. How could this happen? You know, he dumped this on all of us. And the answer is no, he did not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Enough with the nanny state.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And you showed how the government protected everybody, which was you showed the revenue and the profits and the margins, which is publicly available.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
You didn't even use a sophisticated model. You used probably the calculator app on your freaking Mac to figure out that it was 192 times. No, he did the back of the envelope. No, no, no. I'm sure he used the calculator app. Actually, I have the Casio.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The whole point is you can figure out that there's no logical justification for this company using one Google search and the calculator app on your Mac.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The other thing that you're saying, which is really important, is you have to remember what the capital markets and the stock market is there for. It's not meant for this. This is a small little cul-de-sac, but the overwhelming majority of the capital markets and the equity markets is to allocate excess capital to good ideas. That's what is usually happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
There's a bunch of us that will put a bunch of our money into things because we think it's the right thing to do. And that is the overwhelming majority of what is happening in the stock market every day. And David's right. Every now and then, one of these things randomly comes up. And every period of time, there'll be a few parts of the market that go crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But the reality is that's not what the overwhelming majority of the actions and that's not why the security is also there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So now he's got a follower count that he can put on his hands. Is it still all of his money that he's betting?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's just... What happens when he loses? Is there a day where he's lost a lot of money? Oh, dude, you got to watch it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I want to see what happens when he loses like a big number.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I'll be honest with you, this may get me back on Instagram. This is so juicy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Oh, day 55. Oh, here we go. Here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I've had them trot out the cooler. When I was playing craps once, I was so mad. And I was on such a heater. And what happens is You guys have seen me play craps where it's like, it's all rhythm, right? So it's like, I get the dice in a certain way. You know, I do that. And then they bring in this guy and he was like a klutz. It's like Daniel Day-Lewis in my left foot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
All of a sudden, everything is spilling everywhere. Four dice fall off the table. I got so out of rhythm. You broke the rhythm. It was so horrible. I was so mad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Really good idea, Jason.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Go to your own job.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Put on your big boy pants. Don't drink and drive. Don't use drugs. That means like all of a sudden, like we need to govern how you're not a functioning adult.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Or do whatever you want and please just take responsibility for yourself because it's not our job. I'm responsible for my children, not you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Should short sellers be more disclosed? I really think that's a very good idea. I do think that there are some short sellers who are doing it because they have to hedge a position that they have. But then there are other short sellers who are doing it speculatively. And there are synthetic instruments that banks will sell you to go massively super short.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
That's how you can get a situation where 140% of the stock is sold short, which shouldn't make sense. If there's only 100 shares of a company, how could it be that 140 shares are sold short? It's because you can have these synthetic derivatives.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So there are ways where if you have... a formal trading relationship with Wall Street. And you need to be of a certain size and they go through a diligence process. They give you, so I have one called an ISDA. And it's essentially an account and a framework that you negotiate with a bank
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
that allows you to call them and say, hey, give me A, B, or C. And other times they'll call you and say, hey, I have this really interesting way to play X, Y, Z. And one of the things that you can do with them is you can say, listen, I want to go super, super long or super, super short, a theme or a company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And they'll create a contract between you and them that'll allow you to get that kind of exposure. Now, you're not supposed to do that on a regular basis, nor are you supposed to lever this up. This is actually what blew up a different hedge fund called Archegos. I remember we covered it. And in that, I guess what happened was the gentleman was calling many banks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
and doing all these things, and one bank didn't know what the other bank was doing, so all of a sudden there was this massive synthetic leverage that he was getting on, I think it was News Corp stock, and then they found out, then it was unwound, then he owed a bunch of money, he couldn't pay it, the whole thing shut down, the stock market went crazy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So there does need to be that disclosure, but there isn't a rule that says that. And every time somebody tries to introduce it, the broker-dealers basically lobby and kill it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Well, it is tied in the sense that ultimately it all needs to feed back to an actual physical share. And so this is where all this price behavior gets further amplified. I think the point is that these forms of expressing risk can really amplify what would otherwise happen. So in Freeberg's example, most people would sit there, get the financials.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Some would maybe say, historically, this thing looks like a short, or I wouldn't even buy it at all, right? Yeah. But other people may say, well, if I listen to the chairman and I think about the future, maybe I go long. That's a fine thing. You can enter the stock market and do that. But all this other stuff amplifies all these things to a degree that we're not really used to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Okay, why?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Competition? I do think that it's hard right now for companies to get access to capital. I think more diverse and more flexible ways where smart investors can allocate their money into the ideas that they want are better. I think that the duopoly hasn't created enough competition. So the NASDAQ and New York Stock Exchange haven't innovated. And in fact, they've probably been a little regressive
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
in terms of filing requirements, listing requirements, in terms of board composition, they've fallen for a bunch of things that don't actually point to the economic rationale or value in a company. And so I think if you have a third player, there's a chance that more competition will create more rational behavior, which will flow into the companies themselves. So I'm a huge fan of this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think that the stock exchanges right now are too brittle. And that large reason is because there's only two of them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
No. The problem is that we don't know what the right form factor for a super scaled consumer AI app looks like. So we've all, again, I mean, I'm not trying to be a wet blanket. It's just that when you look at what's built so far, I think most of the things we've seen are the Friendster and MySpaces of this class of app. We haven't seen the Facebooks and the Instagrams yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And the reason is because we haven't experimented and pushed the boundaries of the form factor. So for example, in the first phases of social networking, The idea that you would collect information about all your friends and then create something called a newsfeed was totally shocking. And I remember when we first released it, people got really upset. And then it just became this de facto.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Why were they upset about it? Tell me. Well, it's this idea that you collected this information and then you presented it about all of your friends was disconcerting initially as a feature. Now, if you don't have a newsfeed of some kind in your app, for many apps, it's DOA, right? So the same problem exists today. All we've done today is we've
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
replicated an existing use case with a slightly better feature here or there. Nobody has gone out and said on a blank canvas, let me completely reimagine how consumers want value with these things to enable it. And until that happens, we're just wasting time. So the idea that Apple with this thousand dollar device is all of a sudden going to figure out that this is why you're going to upgrade,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think is pretty speculative. And I think they're going to be disappointed. I think people have realized that four generations ago was more than enough. And on top of this, the stuff that you value inside the iPhone is not what you're going to need for AI. So actually, spending a trillion billion dollars on the fourth camera lens is not going to be what solves this problem.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And so you're more likely to have a very simple earbud that is very inconspicuous and discreetly in your inner ear well speaking information to you than you are with a companion $500 phone than I think you will be with a $1,500 iPhone.
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My point is you don't need a $1,500 device to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Uber has the data. DoorDash has the data.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
It's not there.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
You would have to fundamentally change the SDK. The idea then that Apple can take a tax on that is outrageous. I think the whole app economy would blow up if Apple tried to do that.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I encourage Apple to try to change the terms of service and see what happens.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Yeah, I think Vinod's comments are a microcosm of something that's a little bit bigger than just him and I think is roughly emblematic of the mainstream media, which is I think the four of us have found over the course of these last four years doing the podcast a rhythm. where there's a whole diversity of views. We've always respected each other. We've learned from each other.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And each of us have taken turns expressing something that the others have ended up converging on. That's not a holistic statement on every issue, but it has happened. And that's an incredible example of how you should figure things out from first principles, especially things that matter. And I think this is the first time, and you know, look, David said this a few years ago.
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Yeah, totally. I think that climate change stalled when it was an emotional and philosophical rallying cry, largely of the left. when instead it became something about resilience and domestic manufacturing, both sides came together. And I think we're at a point now where the US's energy independence plus the amount of reliance on non-carbon based fuels will drive a sea change in the United States.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I think it'll be copied in Western Europe. And it's also going to be at enough of a low price point where it'll get embraced in the developing world. It's an incredible example of if you want to take an idea and a bunch of solutions and want to die on the hill of messaging and platitudes, it'll make no progress.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But if instead you're willing to be less extreme about it and actually just frame it in economic value add, All of a sudden, everybody embraces it and it just becomes obvious. So I think that we're going to do wonders over the next 20 and 30 and 40 years all over the world to push back on the general state of warming.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But I think it will have happened because the economic incentives aligned, not because of and a philosophical or emotional framing of the issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I have one more birthday in my family today. Making us all look bad. This is one of the most incredible people in my life. Charismatic, funny, charming, intelligent people. It is my bestie David Friedberg's birthday today.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Thank you for showing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And? It's also AK-47. Alan Keating's birthday today as well. Oh, you guys have the same birthday. I love Alan Keating. Shout out to Alan Keating.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
He said, Sachs did, that the course of elections will be driven by podcasts. And I didn't give that a full enough weighting at the moment when he said it. But I think what I'm realizing is it's not necessarily just that podcasts will frame elections, but it's the counterfactual, which is that it fills a vacuum.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think what you're seeing right now are the reactions of people that have thrived in what used to work, which was a traditional media infrastructure that would shape how people were supposed to think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
But then all of a sudden, if you can have a platform like this, where people just talk from first principles, respectfully, and then the chips are going to be what it is, and people will come to their own conclusions, I think that that's what people are reacting to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
So I think what Vinod is reacting to is this sort of discomfort where you see four reasonable, intelligent people all of a sudden talk open-mindedly about what's happening in the presidential election. And what you leave out is the planted orthodoxy of what you're supposed to think. And that's disconcerting to him.
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It's disconcerting and confusing maybe to Sorkin, who I think is a wonderful reporter and a thinker. It's disconcerting, Jason, to every single media outlet over the last week that's breathlessly been trying to get me or Saks to have an opinion on this. And the reason I've deleted all of these emails is they don't get a chance to frame what we think. Mm-hmm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
You can listen to the podcast and know what we think. This is the future of how smart, reasonable, moderate people should make decisions. It is an example. Talking to somebody you disagree with does not make your opinion bastardized. It actually makes your opinion valuable.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
There are these simple truths to living a productive life that if you want to embrace, you need to find friends that you can trust. Even on issues when you disagree, you can hear them out. So that's what's happening right now. And I think that that's why we all need to sort of stand together and lock in arms and just keep moving forward. It is something really important here that's happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think that's why the media and these opinion makers are losing their minds.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
I also think it's important to make sure that we reiterate again, at the sake of being pedantic, the facts, which is this is a nonpartisan show. And it is a platform that has showcased and given time to Democrats and Republicans and independents. And they've all taken us up on it. So that thought by Vinod is incredible. at best, incomplete, and more appropriately, just stupid and factually wrong.
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DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Larry Summers, Dean Phillips, Bobby Kennedy, Chris Christie. I mean, this is a spectrum of people that we are bringing on. Cheryl Sandberg. Cheryl Sandberg. You can hear from them. Jared Kushner. Jared Kushner. You can hear from them in an unfiltered way and come to your own conclusion. That's why we were number eight last week. That's the exact reason why.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And I think that that's very scary because instead of power brokers being able to filter an opinion, you now have an opportunity to just hear it for yourself, discuss it amongst your friends and come to your own conclusion. So we have always been bipartisan here and we will continue to be bipartisan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
The second thing is, and I just want to say this again, I have asked the White House for President Biden to come on the show. Oh, come on the show, please. Yeah. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And it's getting very personal. Well said. Really well said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
And so it's kind of like it's going to be the least effective.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
No, we do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Retrain, okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
For all listeners, I just want you to know they've been bickering like this for 20 years. So it's the funniest thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
LGBTQ, were they allowed?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
100%.
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Jake, let me ask you a question. Where does that place you in your political philosophy around the importance of human rights abroad?
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Do you think there's a chance that some of these human rights issues were embellished to try to get more money?
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I think the biggest thing that we will have to confront is that many of the things that we thought were issues or problems may have actually been somewhat embellished because of this money cycle. Sure. And I think that that's going to cause a lot of people to feel really, they'll probably feel really foolish about some of the decisions they made.
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
All the attempts at cancellation are going to look really dumb in hindsight. Yeah.
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
If I had known, I would have started an NGO. Where's my NGO? You had everything except the money laundering. You had the grip. You had the virtue signaling. You had it all except the actual money.
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The Republicans did a better job of reforming that coalition. And now I think what you're going to see is a shrinking. I actually got this totally wrong. I don't know if you remember a couple of years ago, but my thought at the time was if the Republicans don't figure out how to fix themselves, they were going to go and lose for the next 10 or 15 years.
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And the reason I said that was they would walk into every midterm and they would just get their ass handed to them. But I think they figured it out that this is sort of this thing that I've been thinking about a lot is there's a fight in Western societies and it's a pendulum between labor and capital.
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And it used to be the thought, the conventional wisdom was that the Republicans were pro-capital and Democrats were pro-labor. And the brilliance of Trump is he took over the Republican Party and made it totally populist, which is to say pro-labor. And the crazy thing about the Democrats is that they are the most sophisticated liars.
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Because if you look at what happened under Biden, you had record high stock markets. So it was purely in favor of asset owners. Record high deficits, record high illegal immigration, record high wage suppression. All of these things are massively pro-capital, but they tried to present themselves as pro-labor. That entire ruse is now being undone.
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And all of this data, what that does is it'll consolidate the Democrats to a shell of their former self. It'll take a year or 18 months. But I think unless they figure out how to totally hard reset, they're gonna be in a really difficult struggle to find a cohort of people beyond 15 or 20% of the population for a long time.
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Well, I mean, the crazy thing is like the Democratic policies are meant to favor capital holders, but capital holders by and large deeply dislike the Democrats because of all of these other issues. So they have no home. There is no base from which to build from right now unless they go through a great reset. And part of it is that they have to understand that they are actually not pro-labor.
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They have been pro-capital. But that requires such a schism from the deepest believers of the Democratic Party who thought, you know, eat the rich. You wear it on your dress. It's so important to you. In fact, actually, you were feeding the rich. And the fact that you didn't even know that is just pathetic.
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Well, it's not an either or thing. And I think the point is that if there are assets that are minted effectively overnight, which I think the 50% share of TikTok would be, so call it $100, $150 billion. The question is, what should you do with it? and who should govern it.
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And I think this idea that if you had a group of five elder statesmen, so I'm just gonna throw some names out there, David Tepper, Stan Druckenmiller, Ken Griffin, John Doerr or Mike Moritz, Bill Gross or some other bond guy. My point is what you get are five people that are very sophisticated across all market categories. One of them could be the rotating CEO for some number of years.
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People should rotate in and rotate out. These are unpaid jobs because everybody that has these slots should be mega billionaires. So they shouldn't be doing it for their own personal advancement. And they should deploy that capital.
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
So as you sell down the TikTok shares, maybe as you sell federal lands and you generate more oil revenue, take it all and invest it on behalf of America into American companies. I think that's a great, incredible idea.
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Antonio's totally right. Like Scott Besson, part of his congressional testimony you guys probably saw this, was he laid out this thing that he has that's called the 3-3-3 plan, right? And the 3-3-3 plan says, we want to see GDP growth of 3%. We want to see deficits that are no greater than 3%. And we want to have 3 million barrels of oil, right? Produced domestically in the United States.
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But if you double click on that, If you look at the total energy reserves in the United States, they're three times greater than the total energy reserves of Saudi Arabia. Three times across all forms. So not just oil. If you oil, not gas plus coal.
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
If we actually go, as Antonio said, towards an industrial policy that's pro-energy, where the incremental cost of energy is effectively zero, where we want just a gross abundance of electrons flowing in America for all the great ideas that could pop up, it is by definition going to generate an enormous amount of revenue for the federal government.
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
And so I think having the sovereign wealth fund be the rainy day fund, if you will, right? That can bank a percentage of all of that, I think starts to do a lot of really good for the long-term strategic guidance of the US.
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
By the way, guys, as we were speaking, guys, as we were speaking, the federal judge just put a temporary restraining order on Doge and has barred Elon and his team from accessing US treasury payments data.
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
No, but Elizabeth Warren is doing a victory lap, so I'm sure that she's part of it.
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Guys, this is flying fast and furious. President Trump just unveiled his framework for his tax plan. No tax on tips. No tax on senior social security. No tax on overtime pay. Renew the middle class tax cuts. Adjust the salt cap. So again, very pro, as I said, pro-labor, pro-populist. Eliminate all special tax breaks for billionaire sports team owners. Oh, all right. I'm no longer.
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
I already sold the team. I already sold my piece. I already sold my piece. Oops. Close the carried interest tax deduction loophole, which allowed you to claim carried interest.
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Isn't that incredible? I mean, he is really going for the jugular. Wow. Amazing. I support this 100%.
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Yeah, marginally, though. I don't think he's going to give it the way that it was before. But isn't this incredible? I mean... Who's going to stand up and lay on the railroad tracks for being able to amortize a multi-billion dollar sports team purchase or that when you make a fund investment, you should get long-term cap gains treatment? Who is going to be that person?
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Nobody's going to stand up for these things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
If you've got a great idea for an NGO. Why didn't you launch launch in every single random developing country in the world?
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
The Jason Kalkanis Launch Fund of Equatorial Guinea.
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
I'm reading the TRO and it looks like this TRO means temporary restraining order. And it's actually narrows who from Doge can get read access down to two people, Tom Krause and Marco Elez.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
I think I should stipulate that Google's models are probably the best of all the models across a broad base of capabilities if you test for them. And so let's start there, which is whatever they're doing is working. The thing that they need to do is be able to translate those models now into better products. I think that that will happen slowly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
And I think that, you know, that's how the- So you mean the pens had gone dry because they were never being used or because they were being used so much?
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
For example, if you look at deep research, most of the people online that are evaluating deep research would now say that open AI is both faster and just better on the margins. All of these things can be improved. I don't think that's a comment on the base model. I think it's a comment on post-training and how they're attempting to productize these things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
The other thing that Google has is a money machine that directly benefits from these AI-driven optimizations on ad targeting. The only other company that has anywhere close to the same credibility is Meta. So I think what both of these two companies need to do is do a better job of explaining how that 75 billion gets segregated.
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
How much of that goes to these AI-enabled models that actually do better ads optimization? There was a really interesting discussion by a former meta machine learning engineer on X about how they did it. It's pretty amazing. It's staggering. But if they could say half the money goes to that and the other half goes to more speculative pre-training and post-training, I think the market would have...
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DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
eating it up. So it's probably more of a disclosure issue for Google because I would say right now their model quality is the best.
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I think it's a process. Buffett wrote about this in an annual letter. And what he described was the changing nature of jobs during the agrarian revolution. And what you saw was a large cohort of people who supported themselves through farming. And then the total quantum of those jobs shrank by 90% when you had industrialized farming and tractors and whatnot.
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But the economy, to Antonio's point, grew around that business and added other kinds of businesses that didn't make sense in that moment. And I think what you see is that when economies get more and more evolved, you see the growth of services, businesses that sort of are these things that can only happen when you have excess, right?
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The person that you pay for closet organizing would not have had a job in the turn of the agrarian revolution or the industrial revolution. but they can exist in 2020 something. And frankly, they can make a good job, the life coach. There are all these jobs that just kind of come out of nowhere. Podcaster, influencer. All of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Capital allocator, absolutely. Mutant strawberry creator. Yeah, so I think that you're- Cut that. Waiting for this next turn of creativity. Like the big problem that we all have, maybe I'll take the more glass half empty version of what Antonio said is- We really haven't been unlocking people's creativity over the last 15 years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
We've been trundling around, except safe of a few companies, which we all know, and we can just repeat them endlessly, but we know which ones they are, that are truly innovating and at the edge. Everybody else is kind of diddling around navel-gazing. So the real problem is that we have not had a lot of reps in being creative. I'll give you just a very simple example. Nick, can you find this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Even extremely state industries. Did you see the BYD clip of the car? Yes. Parallel park, yes, with a little swipe. It's incredible. How tragic is it? Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
When you're a short king, when you're a short king, when you're like five, seven, five, eight, when you're five, seven, five, eight, I get it why you guys, because you guys are all stubby and short. I don't get it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
So good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Love you, boys. We love you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
So let me try to give you a little bit of historical context because I think that that's important. I think whenever I hear so many people breathlessly saying some version of WTF as if this is totally new, it's not new. And I'll give you two examples, but one that I really want to double click on. The two examples I'll give you is that in 1941,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
The Truman Committee was formed because there was a fear that the spending by the Defense Department was completely out of whack.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
And over the next six or seven years, and this is really what gave Truman the credibility to then become Roosevelt's vice president, was they found incredible levels of waste, fraud, and abuse during the war, before the war effort, and then after Pearl Harbor, during the war process. Over seven years, that committee, and this is in 1941 dollars,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
They were tasked and budgeted with only 20 or $30,000, okay? Over the next six years, they spent less than a million. Inflation adjusted to 2023, this is where I found the data, was about six and a half million they spent. You know how much they saved? It's estimated they saved somewhere between 10 to $15 billion in 1941. That's a quarter of a trillion 2023 dollars.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
The second example is we did this under President Clinton, and that was called the National Partnership for Reinventing Government. So the first thing that I think it's important to acknowledge is this is not new. We've done Doge twice before. Both have been successful. The Harry Truman one was incredibly important because it really set guardrails for how this can be done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Everything in that committee was a Senate committee, was unanimous. So it was Republicans and Democrats that found waste, fraud, and abuse everywhere. They saved an enormous amount of money.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
The second, which is interesting, is these last two versions of Doge were driven and led by Democrats, the same people today who are basically saying, hey, hold on a second, we have congressional committees or we have inspector generals. And they lack the awareness to know that their own party was the driving force for this two times before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
And I think it's important to just acknowledge that those methods are not good anymore, right? Because I think what we're finding early days is the rot is super pervasive. There's no accountability. And so I think you need people to look at it with fresh eyes. And what is Doge at the end of the day? What they are are read-only auditors of the truth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
The press secretary in the White House made this very clear. It's incredible the power that read-only access gives you. All it allows you to do is just take the data and present the data. They can't manipulate it. What they're able to do is publish all of this stuff in real time, and that's why this is so important, because if it went into a congressional committee, to be honest with you, it would
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
sit there and stew for six, seven, eight, nine months, you would maybe get small little tidbits of it, but now instead you're just getting the full thrust of it. And what is the biggest thing that I find concerning? I think it's what Antonio said, which is that the media, who are supposed to be this intermediary layer that's totally objective between the government and the people,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
were not independent at all, but had all kinds of hidden incentives, $8 million to Politico, several million dollars to the BBC. I think it's important to ask what's going on. And by the way, that also has historical context. This is exactly what happened in the 60s and 70s, where it turned out that record companies were paying DJs to pay songs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
There was a huge set of lawsuits and trial cases, and the result was a change in the law, right? And we call that payola now, which is you cannot take this money without disclosing it. And so had this money been absorbed by these entities, and actually disclose, maybe we'd be okay. But Nick, I sent you a link. Maybe you can throw it on the screen for these guys.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
This is a very simple manifestation of this cycle. We talked about this, guys, and we didn't realize how connected it all was. But we were asking ourselves during the election cycle last year, why are all these articles buried? Why aren't we really getting the truth? And it turns out that the people who were responsible for telling the truth
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
somewhere along the chain were cajoled or just told not to tell the truth, influenced by all of this back channel money that was going back and forth from the government to these folks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think it's a wonderful Rorschach test for basic intelligence. I mean, if you just read something and all of a sudden, like, that's my problem, it's probably not your problem. And so it's a great way to actually weed out the people that were just meant to fail anyways and just needed a way to externalize their frustration and have an excuse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I have never seen a person build a successful company unless they understood intimately the core amount of value that their company created and knew how to balance getting into the weeds with scaling through other people. I've never seen a good example of a great CEO that didn't do that well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And there is no word salad that explains this. It's incredibly unique to every single company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I would say it's their job to have the strategic wherewithal to understand what it takes to win. and then win at all costs. That's their job. And if you cannot win, and then you externalize your inability to win to an essay or something else, you're probably going to fail and your company's probably going to fail.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And they each did it uniquely. I don't think there's a single way in which any one of those companies is run that necessarily you could have cut and pasted it to the other companies and have it worked. So it requires a smart individual who understands their company and their human capital intimately well and their business model.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I don't see most founders starting a business because they've done some first principles analysis. I see most founders starting companies because they see a gap that they're pretty sure exists. But I think the biggest thing that founders have is this intersection of fearlessness and naivety. And so if they knew too much, they would never do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
that I don't think necessarily means that the entire set of all of those people are actually great first principles thinkers. The first principles is required after product market fit. What's required before product market fit is risk-taking, curiosity, relentless iteration, and those are a very different set of characteristics. Is it true that sub-founders can then change their toolkit?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Absolutely. But is it true that, quote unquote, because you have a title, you have those things? Absolutely not. Otherwise, we would have a much higher success rate in Silicon Valley than we do. There is a reason why 95% of these companies go to zero. It's because the ability to do the first thing is rare, and then the ability to transition is even more rare.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think that's a really good point. Like if you look at some technology businesses, they start off looking like technology businesses and what they really are are tech-enabled consumer businesses. Other businesses are pure technology companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And why that distinction is important in this context is that there are certain kinds of challenges you have in the former that you just don't have in the latter and vice versa. So if you're a Google or a Facebook and you run into some problem,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Typically, the solution is you can engineer around it because ultimately your product is free and there's a different way to scale and grow and create feature value because those are also incrementally free. If you look at a company like Airbnb and if you look at the last six months in the stock, what is it telling you?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
It's telling you that the people that own it have realized that it's less of a technology business and it's more of a cyclical business. business that ebbs and flows with the ability to spend money on behalf of the consumer. So now all of a sudden you're put into a different bucket and you grow as people's belief ebbs and flows about the amount of spending that consumers have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Have you guys read Michael Ovitz's book? Yes. Oh, yeah. It's incredible. It's really incredible. It's a great book.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
That is independent of your product quality. And what that means is that there's no amount of investment in technology that you can really make to change that. People need to have excess capital in order to spend on vacations, and then you can capture your fair share of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
But if we're in a recession, that company will be under pressure in a way that has nothing to do with the internal product quality that they exhibit. So these are just dimensionality. It's just different kinds of problems that every single company faces that are totally unique to its own circumstances. So if you are...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Trying to point to some label as the reason why your company is failing, I would just encourage you to not do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Michael's incredible. It's a great book. What a playbook.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Well, I mean, Zuck, I think, did an incredible thing for me, which is he let my team cook. I don't remember having skip level meetings, this, that, none of this other nonsense. But at the same time, what he did was he created air cover for us because let's be honest, I was an immature executive at the time. So I was still learning how to be part of a fabric of a group of people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I did not know how to do that. So I was a little bit of a lone wolf operator with my team and I operated that way. You know, I would... Hey, guys, we get to 100 million people, we're all going to Vegas. And the rest of the company would be upset. And, you know, Mark and Cheryl's job would be to clean up the broken glass of everybody else saying, there's these haves and have nots at Facebook.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And in hindsight, who cares? Because it all worked. In the moment, I could see why everybody else was a little bit upset with that. So they did a wonderful job of letting this wonderful team of very curious iterators do their job. And they basically got out of the way. And I think that that's a wonderful thing. But is that repeatable?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Not in any other company, because that context and timing and moment was very unique. And again, my approach to the job was unique, not necessarily sustainable, not necessarily good or nor bad, different. And we adapted to those boundary conditions to maximize how we could deliver. But it doesn't mean anything to any other company, in my opinion.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
He may be the first. I mean, Adyen, I think, is the first and really only company that's implemented AI in production at scale. It'll be really interesting to understand where that's gone in the last year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
How about slightly differently? There are stupid outcomes and smart outcomes. And there are all kinds of different people that can get to stupid outcomes and smart outcomes. And so you have to have the courage to say, that was stupid. Don't ever do that again. And that was smart. Do more of that. And if you can't distinguish the two or you can't get to the latter, you're going to fail.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Instead of founder mode, why don't we call it founder responsibility? Like what are the responsibilities?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Steph Curry is not the founder of the Warriors, but he's the linchpin. Okay. My point is teams, teams need winning players. And then you need to put together your own game plan for winning, but the goal should be winning. If you are not winning, you are a loser.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You gotta win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Winning, winning. If you're not winning, you're losing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Is he going to talk about his experience at Uranus?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I want to win.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
To your point, like a senior real estate executive would have put together a forecast of cash flows and it would have been a very boring meeting. But if you didn't have the intellectual wherewithal to realize that that was a critical meeting for a real estate business and then listen to that and then manage your burn appropriately, that was a huge mistake.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So again, it just, it always comes down to, can you take all the labels and all of the, you know, navel gazing aside, and can you make good, smart decisions when you're asked to run the play? That's your job at every level of a company. And a CEO that knows how to do that tends to helm winning companies. And I don't think that that is exhibited in whether you are employee zero or employee 20.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
It's an intellectual and psychological archetype.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
That's actually the most important thing that I've heard in this whole discussion that we don't talk enough about. The people that win are deeply intellectually promiscuous. They're learning about many, many things. They're adapting things to their own playbook. The next day, they may throw that piece away and take something else because it's something they learned.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
We use the word re-underwrite a lot, right? But it's this idea of constantly re-underwriting what the conditions on the field are so you know what you need to do in that moment to maximize your chances of success.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Because Sequoia had this reputation in the 90s and early 2000s as somebody that would boot the founders. But when you look at Sequoia's returns, what their returns say is these guys are just winners. They're consummate, incredible winners.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And so what Sequoia had the ability to do, clearly looking backwards, is figure out which companies had people that were adapting themselves and scaling and people who were a little bit in a cul-de-sac and just needed to get replaced. And again, they were operating from a first principles perspective, in my opinion, and they were being Pretty ruthless and acting with zero nostalgia.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So, again, it's just a reminder, like, there is no easy answer here. It is so hard. That is why 95 plus percent of our companies and our efforts end up with nothing to show for it at the end of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Did you say you met with Eric Schmidt recently, Shema? Well, I had a meeting with Eric Schmidt a few weeks ago, which blew my mind. And I think I called Freeberg right afterwards. But this is just an example of like, there are just people that know how to win. He is one of those people. So as part of 8090, one of the things that we're doing is we're building a transpiler.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You know, right now, everybody is very much fixated on PyTorch and The problem with PyTorch and building to NVIDIA is you have this thing called CUDA in the middle of it, which is owned by NVIDIA. And I think that over time, that's problematic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So the long-term solution is you need a functional transpiler that can take CUDA littered code, but be able to compile it without losing performance to any hardware. So Amazon hardware, Google TPU, et cetera. So Eric and I sat down, we were together for a couple of days when we were in Europe and we had like a hour, 90 minute meeting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
The level of technical detail and mastery that he had blew me away. And he asked hundreds of very, very, very specific questions, some of which I knew the answers to, some of which I didn't. I was able to ask him what he thought, he was able to go into the weeds in an enormous amount of detail. And what I thought was,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Where is he finding the time to know as much as he does about compilers and the specifics of AI at this level of detail? And the story of telling you this example is just more that that is a kind of person that is just rare and unique. You can't put a label on that person. And you just want that person near you because he has the ability to help you in a way that most other people just do not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
irrespective of whatever their title is. So it just goes to say, you gotta focus on the actual meat of the problem. And in that specific case, he gave us two technical directions that my team and I are exploring now with this goal that if one of them pans out, I'll go back to Eric and say, look, We tried these things. This is working. This is not working. What do you think?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And it was an incredibly helpful meeting to me. And he just offered that time to me. And so my point is, people like this exist. And I think that the whole goal, if you're trying to win, seek those people out, independent of what they're doing, what their title is. Get them on your team. Learn from them as much as you can. And hopefully you get one step closer to winning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And get them on your team if possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Ideally.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Exactly. They're like, get out of the way. Where's Jimmy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Let me break down an algorithm for you. Okay, effectively, it is a mathematical equation of variables and weights. An editor 50 years ago was somebody who had that equation of variables and weights in his or her mind. And so all we did was we translated, again, this multimodal model that was in somebody's brain into a model that's mathematical, that sits in code.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, and I think it's a fig leaf to say that because there is not an individual person who writes 0.2 in front of this one variable and 0.8 in front of the other, that all of a sudden that this isn't editorial decision-making is wrong. We need to understand the current moment in which we live. which is that these computers are thinking actively for us. And that is just true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And so I think we need to acknowledge that because I think it allows us at least to be in a position to rewrite these laws through the lens of the 21st century.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think it is a fig leaf to say that there's a level of abstraction that should give us immunity. I think that these algorithms are taught to iteratively become better and better at hooking people on whatever is trending in that moment. And I think it's probably known to these companies at any given time what's trending.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So even though they're not literally going and changing something in the moment, doesn't mean that they don't support it and doesn't mean that they're not aware of it. And it doesn't mean that they haven't created a net to sort of catch these lightnings in a bottle and spread them around.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And so I think we just need to have a more intelligent discussion about how responsibility should be shared in a world where Section 230, yeah, you're right. I'll just say it again. We're not writing deterministic code anymore. It doesn't say if this, then that, show them the blackout video. There is no piece of code anywhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
But it's kind of a fig leaf to say that that isn't the intention of the way that the new form of software is written.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Co-founder of Cotu.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
It's like, I don't think it's about making me angry. I hear what you're saying, but I would offer something slightly different, which is I think that these algorithms focus on momentum. So meaning if Freeberg spends the next 15 minutes looking at mountain biking videos, the momentum shifts to mountain biking. If he then goes to surfing, the algorithm goes to that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And the reason is that the way that these, if you go back to the actual models themselves, the way that they're architected, right? Like if you look inside of a transformer, what is it? There's a neural network part and then there's a self-attention part. What is the self-attention thing trying to do? It's trying to figure out the momentum and the importance of a given input.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
So the core structure of the way that like we've solved the problem today is erring towards a thing where If actors in the system wanted to create momentum in one direction versus the other, they can probably do it before they get caught, because the algorithms will amplify that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And I think this is the whole point where these blackout videos, it's not as if somebody wanted to consume that per se, as much as there was a moment in time where the momentum was towards those videos, a large swath of people got it. And then the unfortunate tragedy is the very small percentage of people acted on it and were killed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
This can happen over and over and over again, and all kinds of different things. And I think that's what needs to be addressed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
You want me to do that for you and get people right? Yeah, go for it. Can you guys Theo Vaughn it? How would you guys Theo Vaughn this? Go ahead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Jason, let's say the quiet part out loud, okay? We've heard this from Bobby Kennedy. We've heard this from a whole host of other people. We've now heard this from the DOJ. There is an inextricable link between the media and the people that pay for the media that want to influence what the media says. We know that to be true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Now, in this specific case, I hope the DOJ runs us to the ground and gets justice served. What I would say generally is the most incredible decision we ever made is to not have ads. It has been the single biggest clarifying function for our ability to maintain our own opinions and be credible. It's allowed us to change our minds. It's allowed us to evolve.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
If we were sort of characters in a movie, we will have gone through different
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
transitions frankly as as these last four years have gone by i think that that would have been much harder to do if we had people paying us money yes so this is just yet another example of your media diet the more it can come from people who don't need to make money from this the better off you will be because you will get earnest opinions and what will happen is whether it's
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
large multinational corporations or foreign state actors, they are going to find unwitting people to take this money and blather on some set of talking points. Yep. On a whole host of topics.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Yeah, so if you're spending 10K a month. I have seven friends and family tickets left. I'm starting seven companies in the next half hour. They're all going to the summit. I'm going to clear $2.3 million of credits, and I'm going to sell them on eBay for $500,000.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think that this is all the tactics leading to the debate on September the 10th. I think that a lot of this polling, you're seeing the sugar high fade on both sides. And I think what we can acknowledge is that the setup going into this debate is eerily reminiscent of the setup going into the first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
which was a very profound sensation that there was a popular vote advantage to the Democratic candidate, Hillary then, Kamala now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
But what everybody got wrong last time, and now what people are doing a much more refined job, other than Nate Silver, this time around, is then being able to do a more nuanced look at the electoral college probability, which is in the opposite direction, favoring Donald Trump and not Kamala. So I think that the Democrats have realized that the sugar high isn't going to win the election.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
They need to be specific in ways that gets moderates. And the only way to do that is to tack to the middle. Because a lot of these other trial balloons were kind of nutty. And those people are not going to win them the election in the key states that matter. Again, it's what we've said before. Five things in five states, right? That's what it's going to come down to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I was confused when I read it. because everybody was breathlessly panting about how incredibly insightful it was. And when I read it, my first thought was, where's the second half that actually explains what this is so that you can have an opinion? And then the next thing I thought was, I don't really understand what any of this is all about. And I tweeted this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
In a quarter century now in Silicon Valley, I think I've encountered two different kinds of people. One are the groups of people that can go right to the heart of issues because they can break things down and look at it from first principles and just ruthlessly attack what's not working with absolutely no nostalgia for people or sunk cost or tech debt. And then there's everybody else.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
And I think that that is an archetype that actually drives successful companies. It's not the case that those are only exhibited in founders. I think it's a psychological makeup of a person and the people that have it tend to build good companies. You know, we'll have such a person, for example, at the All In Summit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
If you look at what Nikesh Arora was able to do at Palo Alto Networks, it's incredible. I mean, in eight years, he's created $80 billion of value. How do you do that? I think it's important to understand how that happens. If you look at a whole bunch of other people that are managers, Shantanu Narayan, how has he built Adobe? Satya Nadella, how did he build Microsoft?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
These are all just like a handful of examples of people that have just tacked on collectively trillions of dollars of market cap, way more than all founders added together in most companies, but for one or two. So I think the takeaway is instead of looking for some label,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I think you're going to have to do the really hard work if you want a successful business, which is when things are working, have the courage to change the few things that still need changing. And when things are not working, break it down to the studs. And most people don't have the courage to go through the glass eating that is required to get to the other side of that process.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
I'm doing well. I turned 48 two days ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
But explain that. What does that mean? Young people will be upset to know that both things happen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
One of the things that happened after the Holocaust was there was still a small cohort of people that denied that it ever happened. And I think that there was, to use the word systematic again, a systematic effort to document. There's pictures, there's museums, there's memorials. You can think what you want of World War II or Jews in general, but you can't deny that that happened.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And the documentation of it is pretty unambiguous or completely unambiguous. When you spent time there, is there an effort to start doing this? And here's where I'm getting to, which is kind of a morbid question, but there was a moment in this documentary where this woman who was the doctor in the morgue, I guess, is talking about all of these bodies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And unfortunately, where my mind went to, but I think it's kind of the right thought, is I hope that there was rape kits done, even if it's posthumously done, Because that's the trail of evidence that allows one to know squarely inside of a box, this is the totality of what happened as a learning lesson for everybody, including not just the people that disagree, but the people that agree.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And then to reinforce some of these basic rights that we thought we've all signed up for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Tell me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Yeah, huge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Cheryl, what is the response in Israel today? How do you judge what Netanyahu is doing both in reaction to the events, but then in reaction to these specific aspects of the events? What are they doing that's different or what would you wish they were doing differently? Or can you just give us a sense of how people are processing this aspect?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
It's to humiliate a people, right? It's to humiliate a country, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Of course, yes. Do we have to log it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Oh, you're going to reveal who Fake Chamath is?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Let's explore that for a second. So when you see the videos, what you see are young people, but you see a lot of young women and many of the leaders of these of these movements on campuses now. The spokespeople are women. The leadership seems mostly to be women. Do you have a reaction to that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Oh, wow. It's a big reveal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Do you have a thought on that when you see these folks and that they should be closer to this realization maybe than a man could theoretically overlook it or try to block it out, but it's actually the leadership of these organizations tend to be mostly women-led and they're basically like, let's keep going and it's about this resistance. How do you react to that when you see that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Sure, why not?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Right, I saw it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Do you think Columbia has done a good job? Well, if you were president of Harvard, what would you have done differently, Cheryl?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I think it's not necessarily the youth, meaning I think you're seeing it in some very specific places that cater to a very specific kind of youth. You see them at Columbia, Harvard. There are these specific Berkeley, UCLA that are bastions of privileged kids for the most part. These are extremely elite institutions that typically...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
allow in kids that have been coached their entire lives to get into those schools. And I think that they're coming there with a lack of fulfillment. And it reminds me at some level of how people reacted to Occupy Wall Street. meaning there were a whole bunch of young people there that probably didn't even know what the whole Occupy Wall Street movement was about. But they showed up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And I think what they found a decade and a half ago or so was community in this weird way. The physical interaction of other people where you had this intimacy around a thing. I'm not condoning Occupy Wall Street, just like I'm not condoning what's happening on campuses. But I think psychologically, what kids are looking for is that level of attachment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And to your point, David, something that they can feel strongly about. And I think they end up getting to the age of 18 and 19, not having felt strongly about anything because they were working on playing nine sports and 14 instruments and all this other bullshit to go to these schools. And then they get there and they feel a little empty. And sometimes negative things can fill the void.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
It's a decision. You just said it. It's a decision.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I knew this, but- There are very few things as you grow older that you realize in life that matters. Thank you. Friends are, that's it. It's just friends.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
That's all you have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
It's a hard pivot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Let's not even try. Also, what's your view on crypto?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
When I watched the documentary, I thought the most important thing is there are these, you said it, Jason, in the fog of war, there are things that happen that are just wholly unacceptable. I remember when I was getting older and I was curious, why did my family not go back to Sri Lanka?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And what do the Tamils, which is a small minority, Hindu minority in the majority Buddhist population, why did they feel so out of sorts? And we were part of the Buddhist majority. And when you insert yourself into that struggle and understand where they're coming from, It's jarring because you have to really like re-underwrite, okay, what are we fighting for? What are they fighting for?
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
And the most important thing that I got to is what is allowed? Because then you would see things. And the unfortunate part of Sri Lanka's history was in the final parts of the war that ended it, there were some incredible atrocities that were committed. And the United Nations and international court system
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
tried to find justice for the Tamil minority population in what happened in those final hours of that war. I don't think that they did for the most part. But it's just to show you that these things leave deep wounds that frankly can be reopened in a moment. So it's very important that I think these things are, and I hate to say it so unemotionally, but documented.
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
for those that don't even understand the Holocaust, if you go to the Holocaust Museum, if you're lucky enough to do it in Israel, I would encourage you to do it, but even in Washington, you know the totality of what happened.
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
There's certain places that document these important moments in history, and if this is one of those moments to the Israeli people, I just encourage them, please make sure that you minimize the mis- and disinformation
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Yeah. And by the way, humans have a way of making decisions, which I think is pretty predictable, which is once you have a point of view, there are things that you believe are facts. And then there's all this other stuff that you have degrees in which you believe that are essentially conjecture.
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
The most important thing in really important debates is to move something from that gray zone into the box of facts. So to speak. And that is the only way that causes people to re-underwrite their principle views. It doesn't matter what topic we're talking about.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So the more that we're able to document and actually make these things unambiguous, I think it actually has a really important role to play in how these young people view what it is that they're a part of. I'm totally pro-protesting. I'm totally in support of standing up for the things that you believe in. I'm not in support of overlooking atrocities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
The Jennifer Duden side or the...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So they use an AI model to... find a new guide RNA?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
So it works around every single existing pattern.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
I'm on the same page as you. This was occurring billions of years ago. And it just took us billions of years to actually observe it occurring naturally in nature. It's absolutely ridiculous that a patent would be granted on that. Now, the implementation of that in a commercial use case, that's fine.
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Let's double click into that word denial. So it's a very heightened moment. Everybody is taking sides. Everybody's trying to interpret what they think is the right point of view, whether it's in that moment or historically in the arc of how Israel and Palestine have been in conflict. where does that aspect of denial come from?
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In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
Have you spent time trying to unpack like, how do you start to get to a place where you say clearly people were killed, but then when it goes into war crimes and sexual violence, we're actually gonna stop it there because it basically pulls our cause back. So we can't agree that that actually happened. How does that happen? Why is that happening?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
How are you going to change that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
Got it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
How good do I look? I'm so sun-kissed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
You think she can just hide out and coast? No, right now the calculation is to get as many people... to basically move into the not Trump voting stance. And they're giving as much time as possible to measure that and see if it's a winning strategy. But again, and I think we just talked about this, mathematically, it can win the popular vote, but it will not win the electoral college.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
So she is going to have to appear and be in a position where she's confronted on about four or five key issues. And that's where this presidency is going to get decided. Four or five issues in four or five states, and we'll all know where she stands. On the border, on the economy. By the way, the problem is, and if you look at what's happening now, we are in a recessionary stance.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
There's going to be a lot of ink that gets spilled starting in September on the fact that X of a handful of companies were basically in a recession. So that's going to have to get put on the feet of the sitting president and the sitting vice president. So there's a whole set of complicated issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I think it's smart, actually, for her to strategically kind of stay quiet right now and just kind of see All the goodwill that's pent up to the not Trump candidate is going to flow her way. Right. The problem is that that's not enough to sustain yourself for 100 days. And so she's just going to have to take a point of view.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
On the popular vote, Harris has a 57.1% probability of winning the popular vote, 42.9% probability for Trump. I guess I'll start it off with David Sachs. given the momentum coming out of the gate since the announcement of Harris as the Democratic nominee and this recent polling data, what's your read on the landscape today? What's your read on where we stand and what's ahead here?
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Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
No, because I think, David, I think you're right. Because when you go into a debate or when you go into these places, people will want to know the answers to these questions. And if the media tries to memory hold this thing, I think the thing that they most don't want, which is another Trump victory, will actually happen because of it.
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Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Because people will come in, this kind of like ambivalent group of folks that are, or independent group of folks that are looking for very clear point of view on four or five issues, maybe will come to a rally. And instead of that, they'll hear Megan Thee Stallion, and they'll wonder to themselves, well, this is not what I came for. I came to know where you stand on these four or five issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
So the media actually, in order to give her the best chance of getting elected, and this is counterintuitive to them, which is why they probably won't do it, they'll have to confront her on these issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Yeah, I think that's fair. And that's why I invite Vice President Harris onto the All In podcast to join us for a conversation. I think we all really enjoy that. And just to declare my position, I am in camp five, the other camp. I am not pro or anti either of these candidates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I obviously have issues that I think are far more existential to the longevity of the United States and the Republic that need to be addressed, that don't seem to be a priority for either candidate or either party. As I've mentioned many times on the show, that's where I stand. Let's move on, Sax.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I just want to ask, do you think that Trump is at risk of shooting himself in the foot by being too public, too open, and too engaging? If we take a look at what happened this week, the National Association of Black Journalists had a convention on Wednesday. It sent interview requests to both President Trump and Vice President Harris, and Trump accepted and went in person.
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Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Harris said she couldn't do it in person or via Zoom. And according to the National Association of Black Journalists, Harris is in talks to do a Q&A session with them at some point in September. There were two moments that are making a lot of news. One was the first question. Nick, can you play this? Where ABC's Rachel Scott went after Trump.
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Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And what do you take away from these polls?
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Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Sachs, is he shooting himself in the foot by agreeing to show up? He showed up to the Bitcoin conference, which obviously went phenomenally well. But Sachs, is he shooting himself in the foot by being too open and engaging too much? And should he lay low?
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Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
OK, so your opinion is Trump needs to continue to engage openly and publicly. It shows strength and it shows a capacity to deal with adversity and conflict. Point taken. So let's pull up the next clip where Scott then asked Trump if Harris was a DEI candidate. And here's his answer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Timoth, let me ask for your response. Did Trump shoot himself in the foot with that comment? And maybe you can give us your read on how he's doing with respect to this, you know, active engagement with obviously adverse, let's call them, you know, journalists and interviews and forums.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Well, I'd love to hear from the Caucasians. What do you guys think about that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Yeah, I'm not talking about the answer itself. I'm talking more about Trump getting out there and like engaging in this way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Yeah, here's what I will say.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
social media tools replacing traditional media, and then with AI tools that are going to create enormous amounts of very sophisticated misinformation and disinformation. I think the only strategy for politicians from here on out is to leave zero ambiguity between what you think and what you say. And so without judging the quality of the answer,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I think the thing that is going to be the most critical for people is to know that the person that you're voting for is in charge. And you get a great chance to vote this person up or down.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the more content that that person puts out directly, the less likely it is that this ambiguity exists that can then get exploited, whether it's by internal people inside of a country or whether it's foreign adversaries. And so my perspective is, It's pretty fearless of somebody to just constantly say what they think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And again, I'll just go back to what I said before with respect to the Harris campaign. I think that Americans were smart enough, and I think you did a good job of dissecting the electorate into five groups. Americans were smart enough to basically say never Biden because of the risk it represented to not know what one was voting for, irrespective of whatever your historic allegiances were.
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I think they're smart enough now to demand answers to the four or five questions that really matter. And I think if Paris wants to really win this and give it a legitimate shot, she's going to have to take a point of view on these five things. And she's going to have to step into the lion's den and be asked very tough questions by a lot of different people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And she's going to have to leave no ambiguity that can be then exploited by misinformation and disinformation between now and the election. So, you know, that's honestly my reaction. Zach, final word?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I do think that the rise of the authentic politician, the rise of the authentic CEO slash typically founder, the rise of the authentic celebrity is definitely the trend that we're seeing, which is that authenticity counts for more than anything, regardless of one's position. And, you know, obviously having trust and
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in the individual is rooted in the authentic capacity of the individual rather than the teleprompter CEO or the teleprompter politician or the teleprompter or buttoned up or image managed celebrity. And that's definitely been a trend that's been building over the last 10 years, culminating in a lot of these changes that we're now seeing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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By the way, I mean, this is one of the criticisms of a lot of higher... large enterprise CEOs is that they come in, they have all their words written for them by our media team. They have all of their communication scripted, managed. Every press interview is with the right journalists said in the right way. And the CEOs that seem to build the greatest value
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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are those who are typically founders because they're willing and able to be authentic because they weren't hired by the board. It's their business that they built. And so they're willing to be authentic. And the CEOs who operate at scale with authenticity build the greatest market value.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think people, I think voters look at policy sacks and they look at character And with respect to character, there's a certain value that they ascribe to this authenticity component, which is typically lacking in most politicians. And Trump delivers that authentic component in how he talks and how he's off the cuff and so on. He's got other character issues, which I think hurt him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And on the policy side, people really kind of look at those objectively, those points. What's your policy? And do I trust you as your character?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, it gets driven from the bottom instead of from the top.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I'd like to talk about what's been, I think, a lot of chatter amongst friends of ours who are active in the market that at a policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed held rates steady. Jerome Powell said, quote, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table in September if inflation continues to fall.
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He said, we're getting closer to the point at which it'll be appropriate to reduce our policy rate, but we're not quite at that point. The next Fed meeting where this rate cut could happen is September 17th and 18th. And if you look at the futures markets today, the market is now estimating a 20% probability of a 50-bip rate cut in the September meeting
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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80% probability of a 25-bit rate cut, and basically no probability of no rate cut anymore in September. Chamath, is that your read on where we're at? And is the Fed kind of appropriately reading the economic tea leaves, given the recessionary indicators that you just mentioned earlier, and what else we're seeing that the Fed's mandate obviously
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is meant to support both the monetary policy, but also employment in this country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think we're in a recession. And I think the problem with a recession is even as inflation diminishes, if your purchasing power is shrinking faster than prices fall, it still feels like prices are going up. I don't know if you guys have been reading the Wall Street Journal, but like the last couple of days, they've been doing a whole series on people that have been left behind by inflation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I was really surprised as I read those articles, just the sheer quantity of impact in terms of the number of people it's touching independent of salary. And so my takeaway kind of just reinforced the fact that we've sort of like looked past the problem because of the stock market going up. for the last few quarters because of seven companies.
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And now that people are sobering up to the reality that even they don't have an answer for all the money they're spending, the stock market's down next to those seven businesses. And I think that you're going to start to see some real pain in the fall. So Jerome Powell is probably going to cut 25. And I think that if they get to him, he'll try to cut 50.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But the problem is it won't solve the problem. And I think if... This is, again, where Kamala Harris has to be. She's going to have to make a very difficult calculation here, which is she's going to have to throw Joe Biden and the economic team in the White House under the bus here and say that was them. Yes, they screwed it up. It was against my wishes.
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And here's my vision for how we fix this, because otherwise the Republicans will be all over it. And I think if you have a bad economy like what it looks like going into November, it's going to be very difficult for the Democrats to to win the White House.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, without bringing it back to politics, Sachs, economy, good or bad? And is Jerome Powell going to cut rates 25 bips, 50 bips? Do you agree with what the market's forecasting?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's not just fully supported. It's overly supported by the federal government in the United States. And I mentioned this last week. Federal government spending is over 2x the sum of all state spending. Federal government spending into next year with the Biden budget proposal, $7.3 trillion. Yeah. That's like 30% of GDP.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think you guys may remember this analysis I pulled together a couple months ago, where I estimate something close to 30% of US employment is either direct government employment or indirect government employment through government payments to third parties that are employing those individuals. So the government is becoming...
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an integral part of maintaining the flow of dollars in the economy because they are such an integral buyer and seller within the economy and an integral employer within the economy and so to reverse that trend is what i worry about more than anything as i've shared many times which is why i question whether either political candidate actually solves this problem for us and we're almost like you know arguing over which marbles i get while the titanic is sinking
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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that there is a real fundamental issue with how this economy is structured. I will tell you anecdotally, I have a lot of conversations with folks that work in the agriculture industry, in the food industry, in the industrial industry, many of these industries that have a very different capital flow cycle than we all deal with typically in Silicon Valley and software.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And many of them are struggling. I mean, these are businesses where some folks have told me orders completely fell off a cliff in capital equipment. that some small business owners that sell whatever pieces of equipment you want to come up with, they are not getting orders. There's no revenue. There are massive oversupply and underpurchasing happening in the food and ag markets.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And yet folks are still trying to push up prices in order to make the debt payments that they have to make on their high interest debt now. And that creates a crippling condition for them. Across the economy, I think there's the haves and the have-nots, as is indicated in this
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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article that was just pulled up where there are some parts of the economy where you have low debt, high margin businesses that can continue to scale and continue to raise pricing, have a lot of elasticity in pricing. And then there are the others that operate on, you know, 1% interest rate charges, the changes drive their profit or loss for the year in a pretty meaningful way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And that's the part of the economy that's really suffering. And unfortunately, the action that will be taken to resolve this isn't necessarily a free market action. It's gonna end up being some sort of government intervention, which furthers the government's involvement in the economy and furthers the tentacles that make it much harder to ultimately pull out of this spiral and this problem.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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That's my rant on this whole point, but.
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All of it, more than 100%. So basically, there has been a net loss in private market jobs, net of the effect of government employment or government spending on companies that then use those dollars to go hire people. Let's talk about the impact on markets. So as a result of this rate cut announcement or this rate cut indication, markets have rallied a little bit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But to Chamath's point, there are definitely the haves and the have-nots. AMD beat. They were up 4% after hours on improved AI chip sales. Their revenue was $5.8 billion, up 9% year over year. Microsoft had so-so results. NVIDIA jumped 12% on some comments made by Meta. and Microsoft that both said that there's increased AI demand and they're going to continue to build out capacity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So Chamath, I know you've talked a lot about this in the past. Maybe you can give us your read on the comments that were made this week. You've historically said that a lot of this build out is well ahead and there's no real ROI yet. But clearly some of the buyers of this capital equipment are saying, hey, there is ROI. We're going to continue to build aggressively.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So maybe you can share a little bit on is anything different or we've just kind of seeing folks justify with the decisions they've made.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, sadly, this is another case of sell the news. These things rallied phantomly in the after hours. And if you look at them, they've all just given back every dollar of gains. So I think that people know that that we're sort of at the tail end of the hype cycle in AI. And every chance, every time these things spike, people take an opportunity to just massively sell.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I mean, Nvidia has turned over 308 million shares today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, it's crazy. It's literally- We're just at the beginning of the day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's trading like a penny stock. It's going straight down like a lead balloon. Yeah. Meta rallied. They've basically given up all of their gains. It's gone kind of straight down today. But the point isn't that these companies are going to zero. That's not the case. It's just the point is that right now people are optimizing, they're selling every chance they get to kind of book the profits.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think that that's fair because, you know, at some point, nobody knows when all of this phantom money is going to show up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Right. So this is independent of what we would call the economy, independent of the recessionary conversation and the rate conversation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Look, I mean, I'm in the middle of this right now with 80-90. It's been one of the joys of my career to actually start a company. in the middle of what I think is the most important wave that I've ever seen professionally since social networking. And I jumped into the middle of that wave and I kind of tried to ride the best wave I could there. I'm doing it here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But my honest takeaway after being in this thing now for seven months intensely, and I'll be into it for as many years as it takes to build a successful company, is that AI is massively deflationary. It takes not that much money. And the results are really meaningful in terms of the amount of efficiency that you can capture and the costs that you can save. And the right business people, i.e.
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startups that are starting from scratch, like myself and my co-founders at 8090, we will pass that on to our customers because it allows us to differentially price versus incumbent solutions. And so I don't see a path where all of a sudden a multiple of the money that's been spent shows up. I don't see it. I do see a path where companies find tremendous, like think about it this way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If you looked in the 1980s, and said, what is the most profitable operational company that existed in the 80s? I don't know what that company was, but I suspect that their EBITDA margins were roughly in the 30 or 40% range, and it was probably incredible. If you fast forward now 40 years, the most efficient company is probably sort of 50 or 60% EBITDA margins.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The reality is that the best AI-enabled company will probably have margins that are 70% and 80% in the next 15 or 20 years. Now, that's an incredible thing. That's a big prediction. But that will, again, spur the principal law of capitalism that everybody keeps forgetting, which is you compete out excess return.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so while you will have many companies that have 60-plus percent operating margins, they'll be in much smaller markets. And there'll be thousands and thousands and thousands of them. So I suspect what happens is that the overall market grows, but the number of companies grows by an even larger order of magnitude.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And in all of that, the reality is that it's going to be very hard for these big folks to sort of see this value capture that makes any of this investment worthwhile. So I think that you're going to have to have some sort of reset in terms of the CapEx that's happened here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I want to switch gears yet again and talk about the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. I hope I pronounced that right. Haniyeh. He was killed by a bomb while staying in a guest house in Tehran, according to the New York Times. Earlier reports indicated that he was in fact killed by a missile strike from Israel.
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But just this morning, the New York Times reported that the guest house where he stayed is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and is part of a large compound known as Neshat in an upscale neighborhood of Northern Tehran. And the article in the New York Times goes on to report that according to several Middle Eastern sources,
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a bomb, a remotely detonated bomb was actually planted in this guest house over two months ago in anticipation of the Hamas leader's stay in this guest house. And it was then set off once he actually stayed in the guest house. This obviously represents kind of an incredible feat in operational capacity and intelligence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think we've known and talked a lot about, and the media is kind of covered quite a bit about the capacity of Mossad. But I just want to kind of get your guys' reaction to this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think that there's a bigger and important story here about the strength of Israel's intelligence and military capacity in the region and what that could mean for their posturing and their demands and their activity in the region in the months and years ahead, particularly with Netanyahu still in charge.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So, Sachs, maybe you can kick us off with your thoughts on this article and Mossad's role in the assassination of this Hamas leader.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Let me put you in Netanyahu's seat. You are leading Israel. Hamas comes into your country, attacks, kills lots of people. What is your measured response to that attack from Hamas, given the capacity you have? The Israeli Air Force, by the way, is second only to the United States, just to give you some... statistics. The Israeli Air Force has 90,000 active and reserve personnel and 614 aircraft.
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Israel is reported to have up to 400 nuclear weapons. And they have this extraordinary technical capacity with Mossad and operational capacity that is kind of unrivaled pretty much anywhere in the world, it seems. What do you do if you're sitting in that Yahoo seat that provides a more kind of measured response? And how do you kind of lead your nation?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah. Chamath, do you want to read? I think that it was, in hindsight, a pretty big miscalculation by Netanyahu to pursue the strategy that they did. And I would have much preferred what you're seeing now, which is a very targeted approach.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think it preserves and it would have preserved not just world political support, but just individual people support, where instead of going into Gaza, leveling the place, creating all of this death and destruction and amplifying and confusing
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people where they now all of a sudden had to make a decision between these two groups and now get confused with anti-Semitic sentiment, that should never have happened. It's clear that Mossad is incredibly competent and incredibly capable. I do believe that sovereign countries have the right to defend themselves.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But then there was a bridge too far, and I think the Israeli government has crossed it. In hindsight, and I think I told you this story, and I may have relayed this in confidence, but I'll just say it again. On October the 8th, what was offered, and I'm not going to say by who, was sort of a meeting of the right political leadership from the Middle East.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Israel and the United States, where they were all willing to sort of come. And the idea would have been to extend some sort of structured solution for the Palestinian people. Now, that would have been so unintuitive and unexpected. I think everybody would have been a little bit on their heels. But I think what it would have done is it would have passed Netanyahu in an incredible light.
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It would have passed Israel in an incredible light. They would have still preserved the ability to go and kill the individual leaders that they wanted to. but it was rejected.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think that when we look back, these are the kinds of decisions that hopefully history documents accurately so that folks who are in the seat to your point free bird the next time around can make a different calculation. I see, you see the pictures and there's just no way that you can turn them off.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You know what I mean? I think Israel's biggest asset is probably also their biggest liability, which is their military and intelligence strength. and it emboldens them in a way that they can be more aggressive than perhaps they need to be with respect to maintaining the security of the state, but perhaps being vengeful and vindictive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I know that that's a very controversial statement to be made. I wanna underscore the strength of this military and this intelligence. Do you guys remember the Stuxnet worm from a number of years ago? That story was incredible. The New York Times broke this story in 2012. Duxnet was a malicious computer worm.
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And I'm reading off of Wikipedia because there's a lot of reporting that has different opinions on this. That was first uncovered in 2010 and was thought to have been in development since at least 2005. Now, this computer worm was supposedly developed by Mossad and the NSA. And it was a malicious computer worm that ultimately allowed intrusion
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into the control systems of the centrifuges of Iran's uranium refining systems. And they basically were then able to make those centrifuges go haywire and destroyed themselves. And they did this over and over for several years. And the Iranians could not figure out what was going on or why. They kept it completely secret.
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Ultimately, it was revealed that there was this operation organized by the United States called Operation Olympic Games. That was a cyber disruption operation. And that Mossad had a critical role in.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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By the way, there are two other stories that build on top of this that are tangential but related. One is that there was a nuclear engineer that Israel felt should be unlit. And the way that they did it was via some like remote control machine gun that they planted off of like a highway where the car egressed off the highway and then all of a sudden the thing was shot up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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A different example was there's a story about how they figured out that Yasser Arafat was sick because they were able to collect a stool sample from a pipe that left his home. and they were able to kind of diagnose that A, it was his stool, and then B, he had some chronic illness.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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My point, I think, in all of this is kind of where you're going, which is that when you have such capability and such precision, to go to the other end of the spectrum, you really have to be sure that you're right. And, you know, as Zach said, I think we're looking back and it's clear that the support around the world, it just isn't there for that kind of mass casualty and that kind of like
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Hey everybody, welcome back to the All In Pod. This week, our hostess with the mostess, J-Cal is out with COVID, getting treated, spending the day in bed. We wish him well. We wish him a speedy recovery. We are going to plow forward like all championship teams do. This week, I think we're going to kick it off with a conversation about the election update.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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No, I mean, it's just like the Russians and the Americans trying to chase the Taliban in Afghanistan forever. This is not a group of individuals that once they're gone, everything is fixed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Do you think that J.D. Vance has negatively affected the interest in Trump, that there's a lot of media coverage about J.D. Vance being potentially the wrong pick for vice president and that he's creating more of a challenge for the president's campaign than a boom?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I recently heard that After Israel struck the embassy in Damascus a few months ago, you may remember this, Iran launched a counterattack. And you remember there were all these like drones that they sent hundreds of them into Israel. But there was supposedly a forewarning that these drones were on the way. There was notice given and it was like, this is it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
This is our proportional response and we're done. That's right. That's right. What I heard was that Netanyahu did not want to stop. He wanted to escalate after that response from Iran. Now, that coupled with what's going on in the West Bank right now
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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where there is a restricted movement of Palestinians within the West Bank and continued development of Jewish settlements, I think really represents a major risk to the region, the Middle East region, that we could see an escalation beyond the response that may be mandated or necessary to secure the state
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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that makes things much, much worse in the region and could isolate Israel even further and ultimately draw a lot of powers to that region to try and figure out what side are you on and how do we resolve this? And that could lead to something much bigger and much nastier. So I think while we all observe this and watch this, the behavior of the the targeted attack in Hamas.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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For me, it's not the issue as much as indicating the capacity of this military and this intelligence that means that they probably feel highly emboldened to take whatever steps individuals feel are necessary to secure the state for the long run, which could mean an increased escalation in conflict. And that's, I think, a real kind of point of concern.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And that's one of the black swan events, I think, that's still outstanding right now. Because if that does happen, if there is, for example, an unraveling of the West Bank, you could see...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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one of these sorts of events that everyone gets drawn like a magnet to the Middle East, and you end up with a major global conflict that becomes a problem for markets, it becomes a problem for the world, and that could be the catalyzing event that I don't think any of us wanna see. To use your logic from before,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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The thing that may plunge the world into having to have a point of view on this may actually be a political calculus that Netanyahu has to engage in, which is around keeping small factions of his coalition government in place, which may not actually represent the full view of the Israeli people. That's what's even more tragic.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
So it's not obviously the Palestinians don't want it, but many Israelis may not want it either. And there may be no avenue if he wants to remain in power. And that's what's so scary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And by the way, there's no such thing as a regional war in the Middle East, because every one of those countries has significant allies in Russia, in the United States, in China. What is Saudi Arabia going to do? You know, Jordan is going to end up in a situation where they may end up having to defend the Palestinians and the West Bank, which puts them across the shooting field from the Israelis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the United States is an ally to both Israel and Jordan. What are we going to end up doing? And that's why this whole situation is not just about a regional conflict. It actually draws the whole world back to the Middle East.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
This is why the counterfactual of what could have happened on October 8th is so important, because that would have been UAE, United States, Saudi, and Israel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
No, just those four. And let's put Qatar in the mix as well. But my point is like, my gosh, like that, it could have rewritten world history in such a profound way. It would have just taken some restraint and proportionality. Turn the cheek the other way, kind of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But not just this attack, like under attack for generations in a region that has been all about conflict and secularity and all of the kind of, you know, identity drivers that make this so deeply personal and rooted in history, not just in a moment or an event.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Yeah. Well, look, let's move on. I'm not trying to judge anyone's behavior. I'm just trying to shine a light on the strength of Israel's capacity and what that may mean for their proclivity for escalatory behavior, which is really scary given that this is not just a regional issue. It becomes a global issue when it does happen. Sorry, go ahead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I thought you were going somewhere else with it, which is I was just going to say in any other simulation, the capability of the Mossad is fodder for incredible movies. Like it's out of a movie. Right. You read these articles and they just don't seem like they're real. Incredible. It's like, what do you mean you smuggled a bomb into the safe house in Iran where all the VIPs stay? Two months ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Two months ago. Two months ago. How does that happen? What does it mean that you actually developed... Yeah, then sit tight. What does it mean that you developed a virus that you were able to get into the actual working computers of the Iranian nuclear complex?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The control units, by the way, the control units. Yeah, the control boards of the equipment made by Siemens, of the equipment made by Siemens that was shipped to Iran.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
That's not like you tell that into something. You know what I mean? That means that there was a person physically there that then found a way to essentially get this firmware implanted. And it's like, this is insane.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
No, you know what happened? I remember the story. They actually did not. What happened was they let the virus circulate in the world for years before someone randomly had it on a USB drive that didn't know they had it, randomly plugged it into a computer in the center of each facility, then it infected, sent out a notice, I'm in here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And then after years, it was finally in there through the random movement of this virus that no one, isn't that incredible? Anyway, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Timoth, what do you think about the Harris campaign, how it's going and the momentum that is being projected in the media and the polling data is clearly demonstrating an improvement over Biden's standings in the polls?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
All right. So political pitch in from David Sachs. We don't have Jake out here to give the other side, but let's keep going. So Bill Ackman's withdrawn his plans to IPO Pershing Square. You know, Chamath, do you want to just give us kind of the background on what he was trying to do? And obviously, this was an attempted $25 billion raise as an IPO.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
He recently reduced the raise target to $2 billion. And when the order book came in, I believe at less than a billion, he scrapped the plans entirely and just announced yesterday that he's pulling the IPO. So can you just explain a little bit about what this IPO was? And then we'll talk a little bit about why we think it fell apart.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I can only repeat what I read, but I'll try to kind of like translate it into non-Wall Street speak. So basically, he has a company. But what that company does is it gets investors to give it slash him money. And then they invest it in all kinds of things that they deem worthwhile. It could be bonds. It could be stocks. It could be currencies. It could be derivatives. They generate a return.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And then they give those returns back to their investors. So that is a hedge fund. The holy grail has always been trying to figure out how can an organization that is- Those funds are raised and distributed back, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I mean, I think you should- Exactly. I don't want to interrupt, but yeah. But just go ahead and say that, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But the holy grail for someone who runs those businesses is when they realize, well, listen, I get paid a great profit share from those funds when I'm successful. I'm also allowed to take a 2% per year management fee. But I believe I'm building equity. And can I get somebody else to recognize the fact that I'm building equity? And that's no different than a startup, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I mean, I think we had a situation where one candidate was not real. And so Sachs is right that a lot of the polling up until basically last week is not really reliable. Now you have this snapback effect which is more about a lot of people that were coming around to this idea of voting for Trump because Biden was such a bad option, now flip-flopping.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
So, you know, Freeberg, you're building Ohalo. You believe that you're building all kinds of really interesting things rooted in science. And you want other people to judge the value of that as measured by your equity, right? Independent of your revenues and profits today, they want to project in the future, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The problem is that hedge funds have not found a very elegant way to demonstrate that they have any equity value. And there's only been a few, and the formula has been the same. So companies like Blackstone, companies like KKR, companies like Apollo, what have they proven? They've proven that they can raise enormous amounts of money.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
So most of these organizations now are approaching a trillion dollars of capital raised. And they tell investors, well, look, don't worry about the returns anymore. Worry about the 2% because that's like our revenue. And we're generating $20 billion a year of revenue that'll grow at some rateable proportion. We'll manage the teams. We'll compensate them well. But there'll be lots of profitability.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And people have bought that story. So I think a lot of smaller organizations who aspire to be like a Blackstone or an Apollo have tried to get people to buy into this story. And I think what Bill Ackman was trying to do was some version of that, which is to say, I'm going to build an enterprise here. Pershing Square is going to be a standalone business. It's going to have enterprise value.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And you're going to measure that based on the assets that I manage. And it's going to be much greater than what I managed today. And I think he manages roughly $10 billion today. But he thought he was going to raise another $25 in this IPO and then in very short order be at $50 billion. And so... He got people to invest in that business on that premise.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And I think folks put in around a billion dollars and they valued that entity at 10 billion. And so he tried to go and raise his fund. He thought it was going to be 25. And it turned out, I thought it was two, but Freebird, you just said it's less than one. I didn't, I guess, or around one. I just heard that. I'm just hearing that from you for the first time. So I guess what is the takeaway?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Chamath, real quick, this was a closed-end fund he was trying to raise. No, but I think he's also said that Pershing Square eventually has a path to go public. That's how he sold the billion of equity at $10 billion in the master LP. Yeah, but this IPO was just for a fund. No, no, I know. It was the IPO of the fund, and then they were planning afterwards the IPO.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
They were planning afterwards, yes, which he didn't do. My only point was that the fund was basically launching a fund, and then the goal is not the fund itself. The goal is to buttress the underlying logic to take the whole thing public, the manager. Okay. And that's what I mean by taking a company public in finance is next to impossible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The whole point is, what are these businesses in the business of doing? They're in the business of making bets. The problem is that those bets are short-term anomalous events. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't work. The problem with that is that investors who are trying to underwrite 20 or 30 years of returns don't know how that's predictable over that period of time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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For example, you're genetically engineering all kinds of produce that we are going to ingest. If that stuff works at scale, you will have built an enterprise that theoretically has the potential, unless it's disrupted by something else, to make revenue for 20 or 30 years. So people can underwrite that. Google makes a search engine. It's going to last for 20 or 30 years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Facebook makes a social network. It can last for 20 or 30 years. The business of making bets is typically something that can only be measured in days or weeks, maybe months at best. And so I think what he ran into was that realization. It's very hard to get people to value an institution in this way. And so the thing did not work. He'll go back and he'll retool.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The thing that I give Bill Ackman an enormous amount of credit for is he is one of the most resilient individuals I've ever seen in high finance, but generally as a business person. This guy has, he surfed some really big waves. He's landed some really good sets. He's also gotten crushed a few times and the guy just keeps coming back and he seems to be getting more and more refined and capable of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
as a business person. So, you know, he'll probably figure out a way. This is not the first time he's publicly dealt with things that have not worked. But I think it just goes to show you that in finance, these entities that try to sell a piece of the quote-unquote general partner as a company, I just think that it's, frankly, that it doesn't work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
SACs, some reports indicate that investors pulled out of the Pershing Square IPO because of the current market conditions that a lot of market indices have stormed higher and that there is now less upside and it's not a great time to be entering the equity markets. Other reports indicate that investors lost interest in Ackman's fund
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And so I think that's what explains the snapback. But Sachs is right. 100 days is a really long time. And what Nate Silver's poll essentially shows is if she wants to win, not the popular vote, because at this point now, three or four elections in a row, that just doesn't matter anymore. If you want to win the electoral college and be the president, you got to go and win five states.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
because of his activity on x or twitter have you um do you have a point of view do you think that folks pulled out investors have pulled out you're obviously a fund manager who is very active and opinionated on x and y sweater like what you know do you think has this affected your relationship with with raising capital if you're willing to talk about it or maybe just comment on the acmen you know issue that he ran into why did this fail
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
give a point of view on investors having an issue with Ackman because of his outspokenness on various social and political issues over... I can't imagine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I'll be honest, guys. I don't think so. Investors care about making money. And Bill Ackman's a moneymaker. Like, that's undeniable. The guy... takes some losses, but his wins are way bigger than his losses. And he is a proven moneymaker. The problem is that I think the way in which he was trying to monetize the business is just a hard thing to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
You have to have an organization of hundreds approaching thousands of people that are raising all manner of funds. And those funds just deliver very consistent returns, not great, but they never lose money. And that's how you get towards a trillion dollars. And that's how you make it a company and not a great hedge fund.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Some people would disagree. They think he's had a lot of comments on wokeism, as he would call it, and DEI topics. And I agree with him on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The point is more about like what we talked about earlier, which is kind of having an authentic voice and speaking what you believe and speaking what your opinion is versus remaining buttoned up and not speaking what you believe and toeing the line.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
He's in the only industry where his performance is measurable every day in precision. So what I would say is it's irrelevant what he says on Twitter. meaning the quality of his decisions are independent of what he says because they're measurable and they are not something you can gain.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And the reality is that over the last few years, particularly starting in COVID, he has gotten better and better and he's played a very good hand. I think he's an exceptional risk manager and he's timed it. And so the people that say that to you, to be very honest, they're portraying their lack of financial sophistication.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And it creates ambiguity. Exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Huge positive. And I think that the part of his business that he hasn't gone back to, which if he does in this chapter of his career with the following that he has... is the activism part. And I think there are two people who I think are incredible at this and where both the written and the spoken word, they have such a mastery of Ackman is one Dan Loeb is the other.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think that, you know, in this world where you have the ability to go direct in a way that you've never had before is actually the realm of, um, a different form of activism that I think could be extremely economically rewarding. and valuable in society.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And in order to do that, you have to be very precise on about four or five specific issues. And in the absence of her defining herself on those four or five issues, she's not going to win. She'll win the popular vote.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
All right, gentlemen, this has been a great episode of the All In Pod. We missed our comedian in residence, Jason Calacanis, Nostracanis, nostril anus. We miss him. We wish him well, speedy recovery. This has been an episode without the usual humor and flamboyancy that we've all come to know and love. But I think it was great to chat this afternoon and we will see you all next week. Bye-bye.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
But again, when people win the popular vote and lose the electoral college, we've now gone through that enough times where that's just the fait accompli inside of American electoral politics. So I think that the Trump campaign and the Harris campaign need to agree on some schedule of debates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I hope that they do two and ideally three and that they both get after it in front of each other so that those five states that are really going to decide this election has an opportunity to make a decision on behalf of the rest of the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Yeah, Nick, if you pull that chart back up again, based on Nate Silver's model of polls, where he takes all the polling data that's been collected by different third parties, he weights them based on the performance of those polls in terms of predictive power historically, and he creates this kind of macro model. That's the Nate Silver approach here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
he's estimating that within the 80% bound, every state on this list is up for grabs, as you can see with the gray lines shown there. There's a very slight margin on the average in Wisconsin for Trump, in Michigan for Harris, in Pennsylvania for Trump. in Nevada for Trump, in North Carolina for Trump, in Virginia for Harris, and so on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
But each of those margins is so slim that there's still quite a lot of decision-making ahead for voters. So pretty clearly on point that this is still very much an open election. I'll give you guys my read. I think that there's five camps of voters going into this when Biden was a candidate. The first is anti-Biden, anything but Biden. The second is anything but Trump. The third is pro Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The fourth is pro Trump. And then the fifth is the other. And I think that that entire bucket of anything but Biden just became available once Biden dropped out of the race. And it was a pretty sizable bucket that there's a large number of voters out there that felt pretty strongly that Biden poses such a significant risk for leadership in this country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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because of the mental issues and the performance issues that we had seen that as much as people didn't love Trump, they were willing to vote for him because he's not Biden. And now that camp has an option and that option is Harris. So some percentage of that camp, and I would say probably a super majority of that camp is now switching into the Harris bucket The pro-Trump bucket doesn't move.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
The pro-Biden bucket probably doesn't move. It sticks with Harris. And the anything but Trump bucket doesn't move. It sticks with Harris. So, you know, the fact that there is probably such a sizable number of voters in the anything but Biden camp is what's probably helping Harris at this point and creates a bit of a handicap for Trump going into this last stretch of the campaign. That's my read.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Obviously, Harris came out, guns a-blazing in the media. The accolades seem to be flying. And the polling data is starting to become worrisome, it seems, for the Republicans. Just this week, Nate Silver released his newest model update, the Silver Bulletin. I think he's got it trademarked as nowadays.
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Because I know a lot of people with that point of view.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
National Association of Black Journalists.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I would disagree on this because I think in the last two weeks, what I've seen is statements coming out of the Harris camp that clearly distinguish her and her campaign from Biden's policy positions and Biden's campaign rhetoric historically. Most particularly, Sachs is on Israel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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When Netanyahu came to visit the United States, she put out a very pro-Israel statement that we all know the Biden camp has largely avoided doing because of the concern over the pro-Palestinian rights movement's reaction to the Biden camp being pro-Israel. And the Harris statement was pretty finely worded and pretty strongly worded that she is very much in favor of Israel defending itself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
She acknowledged that there is a loss of Palestinian life that matters and we need to acknowledge and address it. But she was very much in support of Israel, which is not a position we've seen the Biden camp take.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And I think that we're starting to see what is a little bit more of a fracturing between Harris being allowed to be free and being allowed to have an opinion outside of the party line dictated by the Biden camp. And I think we'll probably see more of that in the next couple of weeks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And we'll probably see her starting to be a little bit more refined in what that what differentiates her from Biden, because I do think that's what's going to allow her to win this election. And she's going to stand up and say, here's why I am not Joe Biden. And here's what makes me different from that individual. I respect him. I love him. He helped me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
But let me tell you why I'm why I'm different and why that should matter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I think you're an example of the people that want to give her the benefit of the doubt. Okay. I think there's a large faction of those people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
That's not true. No, that's not a fair way to characterize me at all. I'm simply pointing out that she made a statement. I'm pointing out that she made a statement that's different than what Biden said. That's it. That's all I'm saying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And in the model, he tries to estimate what does the polling data show us with respect to the Electoral College elections? and the popular vote in the upcoming presidential election. Harris currently has a 42.5% probability of winning the electoral college, Trump 56.9%, Kennedy coming in at 0%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
I do think that what you're saying is exactly what she needs to answer to in public in the next couple of weeks to earn credibility on what is she different from the Biden administration on in terms of policy? And why did she not make that clear when she was in the Biden administration? And she can say, I didn't agree with it. Or she can say, I've changed my mind.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
And I think both of those might end up being where she needs to go to. But you're right, she does need to answer to that. I don't think it's clear she has to do any of that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You just hand them the device. Everything was through the device. The little class they got through the device. The way that they would talk to their friends through the device. So it reintroduced itself in a way that we couldn't control. And then we saw this slippage. And then what we did was we just drew a bright red line and we said, we're taking it out of your hands. No more video games.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
No more iPad. We're going to dose it in very small doses. And he had an entire turnaround. But then here's what happened. I took my eye off the ball a little bit this summer because it was like he had a great year. He reset. His self-confidence was coming back. I was like, man, this is amazing. And then I do the thing that, you know, a lot of people would do. I hear you can have an hour.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Ah, yeah, it's fine. You know, talk to your friends, you know. And then it started again. And then again, now we just have to reset. So at least in our example, what we have found, and it may not apply to everybody, but for us, him not...
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
being bathed in this thing had a huge effect playing basketball outside you know roughhousing with his brothers you know having to talk to his friends having to talk to us watching movies you know or we would just sit around because by the way what I noticed was like my kids had a hard time watching movies or listening to songs on Spotify for the full duration
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They'd get to the hook and they'd be like, Ford. Next. And they'd be like, you know, they'd watch like eight minutes next. And I was like, what are you guys doing? Like, this is like enjoying the fullness. They couldn't even sit there for three and a half minutes. So what at least, you know, my son was learning was, right, to just chill. a little bit, be there, be able to watch the show.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And these shows move at a glacial pace relative to what they're used to if they're playing a video game. Or TikTok. Or TikTok. Yeah. Yeah, because TikTok, they're like this, boom, boom, boom, boom. And it's helped. It's not a cure. But it just goes back to what you're saying, which is like, if you give parents options, and I heard this crazy stat, I don't know if this is true.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
if you take your devices away from a kid, the kid will feel isolated from their other students. The critical mass, I don't know if this is true or not, but it's what I was told, so I'll go with it, was that if you get a third of the parents So like in a class of 20, if you get a third of the parents to agree as well, no devices, the kid feels zero social isolation because it becomes normative.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And so that's where you find yourself, where... there's very little news i think there's a lot of opinion And then the problem with opinion is that feeds the outrage machine. And that's the, you know, the clickometer. The clickometer doesn't go high when you're like, hey, guys, I studied this equation. Right. There's a 50 percent chance of this. Nobody cares about that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's like it's normal. You got a flip phone. Yeah. And you're texting like this to your parents or you're calling, you know. Yeah. And I don't know, it may be worth trying. There was a crazy thing. I don't know, Jimmy, if you can find this, but there was a crazy thing, Eaton College, which is like the most elite, if you will, private school in the UK.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's kind of where like all the prime ministers of the United Kingdom have matriculated through Eaton College. So it's like high school, fancy high school. they sent a memo to the parents for the incoming class. And the headmaster said, when you get on campus with your child, we're going to give you like what is basically a Nokia flip phone.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You are going to take the SIM card out of this kid's iPhone or Android. You're going to stick it in this thing. And this is how they're going to communicate with you and communicate amongst each other while they're on campus. Wow. Mandatory. Mandatory. Mandatory. I thought this was incredible. I don't know what the impact is, but that takes a lot of courage. And I thought, that's amazing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I have a rule with my oldest who's 15. He'll call me. He'll call me. Or even when I call him. Yeah. It's like a grunt greeting. Right. They don't know how to talk anymore. And I'm like, hello? And so I went through this thing where I would just hang up. And I'm like, you know, beep, hang up. And then he would call me back, huh?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then finally I said, I just want you to have these building blocks. They may sound really stupid to you right now, but looking people in the eye, being able to have a normal conversation and be patient in that conversation.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
is going to be really valuable for you people will really be connected to you you may not feel that and you may think this is like lame and stupid what i'm telling you but i was like just try to just try to do it and then what's so funny is like i i would tell this story about like you know our kids go to like um you know very well-meaning private school right and uh
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I almost think like sometimes like, again, we're not teaching necessarily kids to think for themselves. We're asking them to memorize a bunch of things. And one of the things that I worry that we've taught our kids to memorize are like the fake greetings and salutations. So on the one hand, you have what's really visceral, which is, oh.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's either like it's totally, totally bad or it's totally, totally good because it just it amps people up. And that's that's a real bummer because I think like you you don't know what to think anymore.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then on the other hand, you know, sometimes you'll see these kids and they'll get introduced to somebody. Hello. How are you? It's great to meet you. And I'm like, man, this is the most – this is the fakest thing I've ever seen. So you're at these two ends of the spectrum.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I would make fun of my kids sometimes because like, you know, they would say thank you, but they would say like thank you like the queen. They'd be like – Thank you. And I'm like, what are you doing? Who taught you that? You were taught at school to say thank you like that? You could just say thank you.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Thanks, I appreciate that. Just look somebody in the eye, thank you.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah, you had the rotary phone. Yes. Yeah, exactly.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that when technologies get going, you have this little burst. It's like these Cambrian moments. You get these little bursts which are overwhelmingly positive. I don't know what your reaction was, but my reaction when I first saw the iPhone, I was blown away. I think the first four or five years was entirely positive.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
um because it was just so novel like you took this big computer and we effectively shrunk it to this little computer made it half to a third of the cost and lo and behold supply demand just the number of computers tripled and quadrupled and quintupled and so many more people were able to be a part of that economic cycle all positive Then you get a little dip.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And the little dip is when I think we lose a little bit of the ambition of that first moment and we get caught up in the economics of the current moment. And what I mean by that is, you know, the last five or 10 years, I think why you feel this viscerally is... We haven't had a big leap forward from the iPhone of really 2014, 15. And I'm not picking on the iPhone. I'm just like a mobile device.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So what have you had over the last 10 years? You've had an enormous amount of money get created by an enormous number of apps. And the problem is that they are in a cul-de-sac. And so they'll just iterate in this one way that they understand because the money is really good, quite honestly. And the incentives of the capital markets will tell you to just keep doing that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But then I think what happens is something shocks us out of it, and then we get the second wave. So if you go all the way back to look at the PC, the first moment of the PC in the 70s and the early 80s was incredible. You had these people that were able to take it and do all kinds of really interesting things. It was pure. Then you had sort of like the 90s and the early 2000s. And what was it?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It was duopolistic at best, Microsoft and Intel. And what they were able to do was extract a huge tax by putting all of these things on folks' desks. And it was still mostly positive. But it was somewhat limited because most of the spoils went to these two companies and all the other companies basically got a little bit run over.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then it took the DOJ to step in in 2000 and try to course correct that on behalf of everybody, basically. And then what happened was the internet just exploded. And the internet blew the doors wide open. And all of a sudden, if you had a PC, you didn't have these gatekeepers. It actually didn't even matter whether you were running on Intel anymore. You just needed a browser.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So you didn't need Microsoft Windows, right? And you didn't need Intel. And then just the internet just explodes. So we have a positive moment followed by, you know, call it 10 or 15 years of basically economic extraction. And then we have value. I think today it's like we've invented something really powerful. We've had 10 or 15 years that were largely economic.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And again, I think, you know, this is like the problem. I'm going to sound like every other nerd from Central Casting from Silicon Valley telling you this, but I do think that there's a version of this AI thing which blows the doors wide open again. And I think we owe it to ourselves to figure out how to make that more likely than not likely.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Have you been in a situation where you have a translator with the thing in your ear?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Empathy, zero. Because the problem is the person there is giving it to you in a certain tone because it's first person.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah, but like when you're here, it's very hard to feel empathy for this person because it's this person that you're focused on because you're trying to catch it. So you hear the words. I think somewhat of the meaning is a little bit lost. Then you go back to this person and you say something and they're in the same problem that you are. So I agree that the translation thing is cool.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that there are, there's so, like there's just so, there's going to be some negative areas. And I think that there's going to be a lot of pressure on certain jobs, and we've got to figure that out. So it's not all roses. But some areas, if you imagine them—I'll give you a couple if you want—are just bananas, I think. Okay. Okay, so I'll go from the most likely to, like, the craziest. Okay.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Okay, so most likely today—do you know if you know somebody that's had breast cancer— If they go into a hospital, a random hospital in America, and the doctor says, we need to do a lumpectomy, meaning we need to take some mass out of your breast to take the cancer out. What do you think the error rate today is across all hospitals in America? It's about 30%. Wow.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And in regional hospitals, so places that are poor, right, or places that are in far-flung parts of the United States, it can be upwards of 40%. This is not the doctor's fault, okay? The problem is that you're forcing him or her to look with their eyes into tissue and And try to figure out, well, where is the border where the cancer stops?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So for every 10 surgeries, what that means are a week later. So imagine this. You get a breast cancer surgery. They take it out. They send it to the pathologist. The pathologist takes between 7 and 11 days. So you're kind of waiting. Seven of the calls come back, clean margins, you're great. Now go to the next step. Three of the calls, I'm sorry, there's still cancer inside your body. Three.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So these women now go back for the next surgery. But the problem is one of those women will get another call that says, I'm sorry, there's still cancer. And so what is that? That's a computer vision problem. That's not necessarily a problem that can't not be solved literally today. We have models. We have tissue samples of women of all ages, of all races.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's omnipresent and it's basically made to want, you know, to convince you that you need more of that thing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So you have all of the different boundary conditions you'd need to basically get to a 0% error rate. And what's amazing is that is now working its way through the FDA. So call it within the next two years, there'll be an AI assistant that sits inside of an operating room. The surgeon will take out what they think is appropriate.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They'll put it into this machine and it'll literally, I'm going to simplify, but it'll flash red or green. You got all the cancer out. You need to take out a little bit more just right over here. And now you get it out, and now all of a sudden, instead of a 30% error rate, you have a 0% error rate. That's amazing. That's today because you have this computer that's able to help you.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It is the best clip because he's like a totally different person.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And all we need is the will and the data that says, okay, we want to do this, but just show me that it works. And show me what the alternative would be if we didn't do it. And the alternative turns out to be pretty brutal. 14 surgeries for every 10 surgeries? I mean, that's not what the most advanced nation in the world should be doing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Okay, so if you do it for breast cancer, the reason why breast cancer is where folks are focusing is because it gets so much attention and it's like prime time. But it's not just breast cancer. Lung cancer, pancreatic cancer, stomach cancer, colon cancer. If you look at any kind of tumor...
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And it's like a bad diet, you know, like the first few shots of it, the first few bites of it tastes amazing. But, you know, if you eat the full toffee cake every day. For the next 365 days and then for the next year, I mean, you're going to get diabetes and heart disease. So the version of that is like your brain just gets totally fried.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So if you're at the stage where you're like, we need to get this thing, this foreign growing thing out of our body, we should all have the ability to just do that with 0% error, and it will be possible in the next couple of years because of AI. Okay, so that's kind of like a, that's cool and it's coming. I think between years two and years five,
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
you're going to see this crazy explosion in materials. And this is going to sound maybe dumb, but I think it's one of the coolest things. If you look at the periodic table of elements, what's amazing is we keep adding. So there's like 118 elements. We actually just theoretically forecast that there's going to be 119. So we create a little box.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's like it's theoretical, but it's going to show up. And they forecasted that there's going to be 142. OK, so the periodic table of elements, quote unquote, grows. But when you look at the lived world today. We live in this very narrow expression of all of those things. We use the same few materials over and over and over again.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But if you had to solve a really complicated problem, don't you think the answer could theoretically be in this? Meaning, if you took—I'm going to make it up.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
selenium and then doped it with titanium 1% but if you doped it with boron 14% all of these things are possible it's like stronger than the strongest thing in the world and wow and it's lighter than anything so now you can make rockets with it and send it all the way up with less energy like it's all possible so why haven't we figured it out because the amount of energy and the amount of computers we need to solve those problems which are super complicated haven't been available to us
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that is this next phase of AI. So what you said, which is we're going to have these PhD-level robots and agents. In the next two to five years, we're going to come up with all kinds of materials. You'll have a frying pan that's nonstick but doesn't have to heat up, whatever you want. From the most benign to the most incredible stuff, we'll just re-engineer what's on Earth.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
That's going to be crazy. It's going to be incredible. We all benefit from that, the kinds of jobs that that creates. We don't even know what job class that is to work with selenium and boron. Again, I'm making up these elements. Please don't. So the point is that there's – so that's like in the middle phase. So our physical lived world is going to totally transform. Imagine a building –
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
that's made of a material that bends. It can just go like this and nothing changes to it. Why would that be important? Well, if you want to protect yourself from the crazy unpredictability of climate, in the areas where it's susceptible to that, maybe you can construct these things much cheaper. Well, earthquakes. Earthquakes. You could construct more of them.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Imagine in San Francisco, you could build buildings that solve the housing crisis, but do it in a way that was cheaper because the materials are totally different, and you could just prove that these things are bulletproof. So instead of spending a billion dollars to build a building because you got to go hundreds of feet into the earth, you just go 50 feet and it just figures it out.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then the bigger problem is then when you're presented with maybe it's not even the truth but an opinion that you should consider. you get totally shut out of it. And that's like the real problem. You build these antibodies in your body where this other version that says, take a step back and reconsider, it's not allowed. And then if you said to yourself, well, how do you even start?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So that's possible. And I think there will be people that use these AI models to go and solve those things. And then after that, I think you get into the world of it's not just robots that are in a computer, but it's like a physical robot. And those physical robots are going to do things that today will make so much sense in hindsight. So an example, I was thinking about this this weekend.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Imagine if you had a bunch of optimists, like Tesla's robot, and they were the beat cops. They were the highway patrol, okay? Now, what happens there? Well, first, you don't put humans in the way I suspect then the reaction of those robots could be markedly different. Now, those robots would be controlled remotely, so the people that are remote now can be a very different archetype.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Instead of the physical requirements of policing, you now add this other layer, which is the psychological elements and the judgment. My point is that if you had robots that were able to do the dangerous work for humans, I think it allows humans to do, again, judgment, those areas of judgment which are very gray and fuzzy. It'll take a long time for computers to be able to replace us to do that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I really do think so. I think the biggest thing that we have done as a disservice to what is coming is some folks have tried to say that AI is the end all and be all. And I think the better way to think about this is that You know how you used to have to get your spelling right in an email? And now you just don't think about it because Gmail just fixes it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
it up-levels us, right? You used to have to remember the details of like some crazy theory, random detail fact. Now you can just Google it. So you can leave your mind to focus on other things, right? The creativity to write your next set, to think about the next interview, to think about your business, because you're occupying less time with the perfunctory stuff.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think these models are doing that, and they're going to get complemented with physical models, meaning physical robots. And they're going to do a lot of work for us that we have not done or today that we do very precariously. You know, like should a robot go in and save you from a fire? I think it can probably do a pretty good job. They'll have multiple sensors. They'll have vision.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They'll be able to understand exactly what's going on. If something is falling, they'll just be able to put their hand up and just like, you know what I mean? Like if they encounter any person of any body weight, it's no problem. Pick that person up, transport them. Again, it allows humans to focus on the things that we're really, really differentiated at.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I do think it creates complications, but, you know, we have to figure those out. So that's like a kind of like a short, medium, long term.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I worry about them as well. And I think that, like, I didn't live in the agrarian economy nor in the Industrial Revolution. So I don't know how we solve this problem. But we have seen that problem two times. And each time we found a way. And this goes back to sort of like news and politics and like just working together.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Where do you go? You know, like if you're a friend of mine works at Facebook and he showed me threads. We were playing poker last week and he showed me threads. And what's incredible is like threads and X are like the exact polar opposites in some ways. And he was showing me in the context of like how the outrage machine on threads works and the way it works is like.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You know where we are today? Sub 10%. Single digits. Wow. And it's a straight line that goes like this. And that was through an agrarian revolution. It was through the industrial revolution. So it is possible for humans to cooperate to solve these problems. I don't know what the answer is, but I do think you are right that it will put a lot of pressure on a lot of people.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But that's why we got to just figure this out.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I'm pretty sympathetic to that idea. I grew up on welfare. So what I can tell you is that there are a lot of people who are trying their best and for whatever set of boundary conditions, can't figure it out.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah. Yeah. And so if I didn't have that safety net, You know, my parents' struggles I think would have gotten even worse than what they were. Right. So I'm a believer in that social safety net. I think it's really important.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah. The jobs that, like, let's put it this way. If we were sitting here in 1924, whatever, 100 years ago, you know, right in the midst of the turn of the Industrial Revolution, we would have seen a lot of folks that worked on farms. And we would have wondered, well, where are those jobs going to come from?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think that now when you look back, it was like not obvious, but you could see where the new job classes came from. It's like all of these industries that were possible because we built a factory. And a factory turned out to be a substrate. And then you built all these different kinds of businesses which created different kinds of jobs on top of it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And this woman wrote this article about it. But what they'll do is they'll post something that says two plus two equals five. Just that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I would hope that if we do this right, this next leap is like that, where we are in a period where it's hard to know with certainty what this job class goes to over here. But I think you have a responsibility to go and figure it out and talk it out and play it out.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Because the past would tell you that we have a really good humans, when they're unimpeded, have a really good ability to invent these things. So I don't know, maybe what it is, is by 2035, there's a billion people that have traveled to Mars. And you're building an entire planet from the ground up. There'll be all sorts of work to do there.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that there'll be a lot of people that are frustrated with what's happening here.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It all starts with like a group of people that are just like, I'm fed up with this.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Just like what you say is it's so true. But like if you think about what that decision looked like. 400 years ago when that first group of prisoners were put on a boat and sent to Australia.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And you'll get like a million views. And then it'll first start with like, you know, folks that are like trying to gently nudge this person. Actually, you know, I want you to reconsider two plus two actually equals four. You know, and then it builds and it builds and it builds. And this that so there's this like this weird version of how people react to like information. And it tends to be.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
That's probably what it felt like. Yeah. Most people on the mainland, when they were like, cha-chao, were probably thinking, man, this is insane. Right. So it'll always look like that. It'll be easier to rationalize it in hindsight. But I do think that there will be a lot of people that want to go when it's possible to go. And like, look, you know, we're in this studio. We could be anywhere.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
We could be in Salt Lake City, right? We could be in Rome, right? We could be in Perth. You don't know. It's all the same.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So that's an amazing example of an innovation in material science that we have been experimenting with for years. So basically at the core of what you just said is a semiconductor problem. It's a doping problem. Is it silicon germanium? Is it silicon germanium with something else?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And the problem, Joe, is to answer what you just said is a tractable problem that has been bounded by energy and computers. And we're at a point where we're almost at infinite energy. And at a point we're almost at like, what I say is very specific, which is we're at the point where right in the distance is the marginal cost of energy is basically zero.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The marginal cost, meaning to generate the next kilowatt is going to cost like sub a penny. Even with today's stuff, you don't need nuclear, you don't need any of that stuff. We're just on this trend line right now. And Because of AI, we're at the point where to get an answer to a question, super complicated, is going to be basically zero, the cost of that. When you put those two things together,
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
What you just said, we will be in a position to answer. The world will be able to say, oh, Joe, you want instantaneous communication between here and Mars? We need to harden these communication chips. We're going to build it with this stuff, which we simulated on a computer. We made it. It works. It's shipping. We're done. Now, that will still take five and 10 years to do.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But my point is, all these things that sound crazy— are not. They're actually not that crazy. These things are like achievable technical milestones. Everything will boil down to a technical question that I think we can answer. You want a hoverboard? We could probably figure it out.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
No, I'll tell you what I think. Okay, well, maybe before I give you my opinion, I'll tell you the facts. Okay. Okay. Today, it costs about four cents a kilowatt hour. Just don't forget the units. Just remember the four cents concept. 20 years ago, it cost like six or seven cents. If you go and get solar panels on your roof, basically cost nothing. In fact, you can probably make money.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
kid gloves and then people just lose their mind at some point so it's kind of like and then over here I think on X what you find is there's a lot more structural data but then it can easily get lost in the noise because there's just a few things that just constantly consume you know what the algorithms want to amplify and what is important in the moment and I think that finding a way to like probably blend the two is probably what is the best in the sense that there's probably some stuff over here that doesn't make it over here
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So it costs you like negative one cent because you can sell the energy in many parts of America back to the grid. But if you look inside the energy market, the cost has been compounding. And you would say, well, how does this make sense? If the generation cost keeps falling, why is my end user cost keep going up? This is like, that doesn't make any sense.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And when you look inside, we have a regulatory burden in America that says to the utilities, of which there are less than 2,000 in America, we're giving you a monopoly, effectively. In this area of Austin, you can provide all the energy. Now, Texas is different, but I'm just using it as an example. But in return,
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I'm going to allow you to increase prices, but I'm going to demand that you improve the infrastructure. Every few years, you've got to upgrade the grid. You've got to put money into this, money into that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Over the next 10 years, we've got to put a trillion dollars, America collectively, into improving the current grid, which I think will not be enough because it is aging, and most importantly, it's insecure. meaning folks can penetrate that, folks can hack it, folks can do all kinds of stuff. And then it fails in critical moments.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that in Austin, you had a whole bunch of really crazy outages in the last couple of years. People died. In 2024, that's totally unacceptable. So I think as people decide that they want resilience... you're going to see 110 million power plants, which is every homeowner in the United States. Everybody's going to generate their own energy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Everybody's going to store their energy in a power wall. This stuff is going to become, I mean, absolutely dirt cheap. And it'll just be the way that energy is generated. So you have this, but this is not the whole solution because you still need the big guys to show up.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
When you look inside of like the big guys, so like now you're talking about these 2,000 utilities that need to spend trillions of dollars, they can do a lot of stuff right now to make enough energy to make things work. But when you look at nuclear, I would just say that there are two different kinds of nuclear. There's the old and the new.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The old stuff, I agree with you, it's just money and you can get it turned back on. It's a specific isotope of uranium. You can deal with it. Everybody knows in that world how to manage that safely. But then what you have are like these next generation things. And this is where I get a little stuck. And I'm not smart enough to know all of it, but I'm close enough to be slightly ticked off by it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
There's a materials and a technical problem with these things. And what I mean back to materials. Some of these next-gen reactors need a material that will take you like 50 years in America, in the world, to like harvest an ounce. The only place where you can really get it is the moon in sufficient quantity.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You're going to harness this material, then schlep it all the way back to someplace in Illinois to make – I find that hard to believe.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I can find it. It's in an email that one of my folks sent me. But it's like – it's a certain – form of reactor that uses a very rare material to create the plasmonic energy that can generate all of this stuff. And it's just very hard to find on Earth. So I kind of scratched my head. What's the benefit of this particular type of reactor? Enormous energy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So like, you know, a solar cell gets this much energy, you know, a nuclear reactor does this, and like this other thing does that. And it's super clean and... So my point is like these next gen reactors, I think, have some pretty profound technical problems that haven't been figured out. I applaud the people that are going after it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But I think it's important to not oversell that because it's super hard and there's still some profound technical challenges that haven't been solved yet. You know, we just got past what's called like, you know, positive net energy, meaning, you know, let's just like, you put, I'm making up a number, you know, 100 units of energy in and at least you try to get out like 100.01.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And there's probably a lot of stuff over here that doesn't make it over here. A little bit of that diet for everybody probably goes a long way.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And we're kind of there. So that's where we are on these next-gen reactors. The old generation of reactors, I'm a total believer in. And we should be building these things as fast as possible so that we have an infinite amount of energy. By the way, if you have infinite energy, you know, the most important thing I think that happens is you have a massive peace dividend.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
There's, like, the odds of the United States going to war when we have infinite energy approaches zero.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think you're touching what I think objectively to me is the single biggest threat facing all of us today. I escaped a civil war, so I've had a lived experience of how destructive war can be. The collateral damage of war is terrible. Where were you? In Sri Lanka. I was part of the ethnic majority, Sinhalese Buddhist. But, you know, we were, they were fighting Hindu Tamil minority.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I don't know. I don't use it. I don't either. I don't have it. I just saw it in that moment. But when he described how the engagement farming works, it just sounded kind of like ludicrously, you know.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And it was a 20-year civil war. It flipped the whole country upside down from an incredible place with 99% literacy to just a, you know, a struggling, developing third world country. And so we moved to Canada. We stay in Canada. You know, my parents do whatever they could. They really and they got run over by that war.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They went from a solidly middle class life to my father, you know, had a ton of, you know, just alcoholism and didn't really work. And my mother went from being a nurse to being a housekeeper. And it was dysfunctional. It really crippled, I think, their dreams for themselves. And so, you know, they breed that into their kids. Fine.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But that can't be the solution where hundreds of millions or billions of people have to deal with that risk. And I am objectively afraid that we have lost the script a little bit. I think that folks don't really understand how destructive war can be, but also that there are not enough people objectively afraid of this. And that's what sends my spidey senses up and says, hold on a second.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
When everybody is telling you that this is off the table and not possible, Shouldn't you just look at, like, the world around and ask, are we sure that that's true? And I come and I think to myself, wow, we are, you know, the biggest risk of my lifetime. And I think the only thing that is probably near this is maybe at some point in the Cold War. I don't know because I was so young.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Definitely, you know, Bay of Pigs. But it required JFK to draw a hard line in the sand and say, absolutely not. So will we be that fortunate this time around? Are we going to find a way to eliminate that existential risk?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
This is why my current vein of political philosophy is mostly that, which is the Democrats and the Republicans, there's just so much fighting over so many small stakes issues in the sense that Some of these issues matter more or less in different points, but there is one issue above all which where if you get it wrong, nothing matters, and that is nuclear war.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And you have two and a half nuclear powers now that are out and about extending and projecting their power into the world, Russia, China, and Iran. That wasn't what it was like 10 years ago. That wasn't what it was like 25 years ago. It wasn't even what it was like four years ago. I just don't think enough people take a step back and say, hold on a second.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
If this thing escalates, all this stuff that you and I just talked about won't matter. Whether our kids are on Adderall or not or the iPad, don't give them so much Fortnite or material science or Optimus. It's all off the table because we will be destroying ourselves. And I just think that that's tragic.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
We have an enormous responsibility right now for the village elders of the world to tell people, guys, we are sleepwalking into something that you can't walk back from.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Basically, that's where it gets to. Math is racist.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Well, let me add to this by saying we know what the response will be not. It will not be measured. It will not be calm. It will not be, hey, let's get on the phone and talk about it. Right. Like the thing is, there was a long period of time where, you know, America was the leading moral actor in the world. Right. And I think that we spoke from a place of wisdom, but also like earned respect.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But we forget that at the end of the Cold War, it's not that we vanquished the USSR as much as they imploded from within. It was just an economic calamity. They just couldn't afford to keep up with us. And the reason was we had these two edges. We had a technological edge and we had an economic edge. And when you put those two things together, it created a lot of abundance.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You know, we had this thing in, I don't know if you saw this, in the Bay Area in COVID. The city of San Francisco, you know, brought together their board of education or whatever. And they eliminated a bunch of AP classes, including like a bunch of AP math classes. And part of it was because of this reason, because they felt it was exclusionary. And I think what it misses is that
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Now, we can talk about how some of that is not equal, which I also agree with, but it it allowed America to be sort of effectively for a long period of time the top dog. The honest reality is that's not where we are today. We are one of two or three. And the problem with that is that you can't look back in history and try to live your life like what it was like in the good old days.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You know, we're not the high school football star anymore. So we need to live in a more modest way, in a more reliable and consistent way with neighbors that have also for themselves done well and just realize that they have their own incentives. And when you tell them to do something, they're not always going to listen.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So if we don't understand that and find a way to de-escalate these things, what you said is going to happen. Something is going to be one step too far. a reaction, a reaction, a reaction, and then eventually somebody will overreact. And that is all just so totally avoidable. And it just frustrates me that we objectively don't understand that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
We sweep it under the carpet and we talk about all the other things. And I understand that some of those things, all of those things, let's say, matter. But at some point in time, nothing matters. Because if you don't get this right, nothing matters. And I think we have to find a way of finding people that draw a bright red line and say, this is the line I will never cross under any circumstance.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think America needs to do that first, because it's what gives everybody else the ability to exit stage left and be OK with it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So I think you just said the key thing. This may be super naive. But I think part of the most salvageable feature of the military industrial complex is that these are for-profit, largely public companies that have shareholders. And I think that if you nudge them to making things that are equally economically valuable or more, ideally more, they probably would do that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So part of – when you look at the primes, the five big kind of like folks that get all of the economic activity from the Department of Defense – What they act is as an organizing principle for a bunch of subs underneath, effectively. They're like a general contractor and then they have a bunch of subcontractors.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
There's all this other stuff you could do to kind of like even the starting line for folks. But if you rip out things like AP math, like take a step back, like in 8 billion people in the world, what are the odds that there's only literally one Steve Jobs or literally only one Elon Musk, meaning capable of that kind of execution? I suspect that there's maybe two.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
There's a bunch of stuff that's happening in these things that you can reorient if you had an economy that could support it. So for example, when you build a drone, okay? what you also are building a subcomponent, a critical and very valued subcomponent. All the navigation, all the communications, all of it has to be encrypted. You can't hack it. You can't do any of that stuff.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
There is a broad set of commercial applications for that that are equal to and greater than just the profit margin of selling the drone. But they don't really explore those markets. If, for example, we are multi-planetary, I'll just go back to that example.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I will bet you those same organizations will make two or three times as much money by being able to redirect that same technology into those systems that you just described. Hey, I need an entire communications infrastructure that goes from Earth to the moon to Mars. We need to be able to triangulate. We need internet access across all these endpoints. We need to be real-time from the get-go.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
There's just an enormous amount of economic value to do that. So again, we have these very siloed parts of the economy that are limited by what we know. And what we know is part of what you just said, which is we built these things and then some people convince others to use the things that we built.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think instead of saying there's some crazy nefarious plot to always go to war, instead if we say, if you make the thing and you could sell it to a different market and make more money, would these people do it or are they hell-bent on war? I think it's more that they would just do it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So then it reduces war to a very different kind of business. I think it's smaller. I think it's more kind of drone-oriented. I'm not saying that war will go away. There's no utopia where war goes away.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Unfortunately, I think that we're always going to be fighting for some resource. So the last 30 or 40 years, all these forever wars, we were fighting over energy, effectively.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Can I ask you a question? Sure. I don't do drugs, so I don't understand. What's the step before it? What causes you to want to do fentanyl?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And so like part of the human experience, like part of our social responsibility as adults is how do you make it so that that second Steve Jobs can find a path to do stuff?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Is there something to do to motivate folks to not do the party drugs?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
What about what happened in Oregon? You know, like Oregon, they legalized it, and now they un-legalize it?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I'm not saying AP math is the answer, but I'm saying there are people that I remember when I was growing up, I wasn't particularly good at anything in school. But there were a few subjects which I was just like, wow, like the little time I spent in school, I was like, I felt a little safe. You know, I could connect. It built up a little bit of my self-confidence and I didn't feel so marginal.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Right. So that didn't fail because of the actual drug policy. Right. But more of the other social policy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I'm sure there's a lot of kids like that for some very small subset. Maybe that's what that kind of class is. It pushes them to a boundary that they didn't know was possible. You're teaching them stuff. That's really cool.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Are there European countries that do this well? Portugal.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And it's all fentanyl? Or is it all... Oh, it's all kinds of things.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So I understand what the intent is, but then the byproduct is there's a small group of folks that get shut out, and then that person that could be that Steve Jobs-like person, that Elon Musk-like person, is held a little bit back. And I think that that hurts all of us. So you've got to find a way where— We're doing just a little bit better.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I wanted to learn about marijuana, the market. But you can't process the money, I think, right?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah, it's like Breaking Bad, like bricks of cash and all of these places.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
A couple of companies, I remember the reason I know this is a guy came and pitched me on some business and he was the software for all that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think the company went public and I just realized it just went sideways because nobody wanted to touch it because they didn't want to build rails for that economy, which didn't make much sense seeing as, to me at least, just because if the laws say it's legal, then it should all be treated equally. But then the problem, I think I remember them telling me was that federally, it's still gray.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I remember the... The problem that somebody raised, I read this in an article, was you need to make it more legal than it is today so that you can get folks to put some version of a nutritional label on the thing and show intensity, right? Because the intensity is not regulated. Right.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I have this weird psychosomatic – guard that developed. My father was an alcoholic, and I didn't drink at all in my teens, in my 20s, and mostly in my 30s. And then in my mid-30s, I started drinking wine. And I love wine, and I think I can handle it. And I really enjoy it. I love it. I do too. But I cannot drink hard alcohol. The minute that it touches my lips, I get severe hiccups.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I mean, like debilitatingly bad hiccups. Really? Any kind of alcohol. So you think it's psychosomatic? I think it's completely psychosomatic because it makes no logical sense. Right. If the tequila touches my lip, I just start hiccuping like crazy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And it's like this weird protective thing that I think my brain has developed because my dad used to drink some stuff that would like, you know, make you blind. Like moonshine. It was like 150% proof the guy would just chug it. I mean, it was...
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's alcohol. Yeah. And it's like, then there's some flavor around the alcohol.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Exactly. And the amazing thing about wine is you can go on these journeys where like when I first started to buy wine, I did what every knucklehead does, which is like, oh, if it's expensive, it must be good.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And you start down that road and it's just so dumb because the amount of money that I spent on stuff that was marginal, but it had a good label and it had a good pedigree. And then when you discover and you learn, like, I remember, like, my wife's Italian, so we spent a lot of time in Italy in the summer with our kids.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And when we were there, you find these incredible Italian white chardonnays, okay? In the summer, I'm just going to be honest with you, there is nothing better to drink in the world. It's better than water, right? It's cold. It's cold. It's refreshing. It's got a great bouquet. But these bottles are 40, 50, 60, 80, maybe maximum 100 euros, max.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It was when he was current affair. It's when he's doing like gossip and stuff.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then you'll spend $1,000 on some stupid white Burgundy from France, and it tastes like half of it. The other great example of this is like Chateau Petrus. And, you know, I don't want to get in trouble with the Chateau Petrus guys, but I'll just be honest. Those bottles cost, you know, $2,000, $3,000, $4,000, $5,000, $6,000. You see some in restaurants, $19,000. I've never bought one.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I've tasted it once because in Vegas I had a host. And once he gave me a thing. He says, Chamath, you can use this for, you know, like your dinner. And I'm like, well, is there a cap? You know, and he's like, this time, no cap. And first I was like, God, I must have lost a lot of money. When they say no cap for $19,000 wine. So then I said, fuck it. I'm just going to try this.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So I went to Caesars and it was like $4,000 or $5,000. I mean, I would never buy this in a normal, but I got it because it was free. Joe's okay. All this buildup in my mind. This is, oh my God, this is going to be ethereal. It's going to be ambrosia. It was not ambrosia. Yeah. Whereas you can find these other ones that are made by, you know, folks that just put their entire lives into it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You taste the whole story. I just think it's incredible.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The real skill is being able to know price value. And when you know it, it's so satisfying because it's like, oh, this is just delicious. And then when your friends enjoy it, they're like, oh, my God, this is delicious. And I'm like, yeah, that's 80 bucks.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I'm like, well, it's very hard to find. So then the skill is like, it's funny, I'll tell you, this is how bad wine has gotten for me. Meaning like, I love the story. I love the people. I want to support the industry. So I went to register for an alcohol license at the ABC in California.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Because I was tired and frustrated of trying to buy retail. Because you have to go through folks that have their own point of view. And I was like, well, if we just become, you know, we as in like me and a friend of mine. And so we set up a thing. We set up a little LLC. I filed the paperwork. And it's called like, you know, CNN. J Wine LLC, you know, my friend, me and Joshua.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And we're able to negotiate directly with the wineries. And we're able to get it from wholesalers in Europe or in South Africa or in Australia. And it just allows us to buy a bottle, try it if we really like it. Thursday nights at my house is always poker. We serve it to our friends. They like it. Then we can buy a couple cases I can share with my friends. And, you know, you get it at wholesale.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
No, I look like a retail store. I could be like Amazon, you know?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They could buy a case. They could buy a few bottles. That's a little bit harder. So you have to have a more personal relationship. But then the really good stuff, you can buy a few cases and then, you know, pass them on to your friends. And I don't know. I think wine's incredible. And with food, it's incredible. It is incredible.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I went to a couple of these wineries and I just asked them just out of like, just explain to me how you got there. And all I could think of was, man, this is way too complicated. But these folks, it's like animal husbandry. They're breeding this vine with this vine, but then they're going to take, you know, cleave off this little bit.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So it's a breeding program over 10 and 20 and 30 years, and it's like, this is really complicated.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
A friend of mine started a company that's making like potatoes and he makes like these ginormous potatoes like this. It's an incredible thing because like the yield is through the roof and like, you know, his I think vision is I'll be able to feed the world in a cheaper and more abundant way. But it's all this engineering. He hacked the chromosome of the potatoes. That's incredible.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And like it generates a huge potato and it generates a seed. I didn't know this, but potatoes don't have seeds. In order to plant more potatoes, you chop up the potato into like quarters or eighths and you stick the potato into the soil. Oh, he's playing God. And so he's like, no, this is dumb. I'm going to make a huge potato and I'm going to have the potato have a seed.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think that it used to be the case that if you went to—in high school—
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Then I'll just take the seed and I'll plant it in the ground.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I don't know. But he's going after potatoes and then he wants to go after fruit. I love fruit. But fruit tilts me because every time I go to a store—
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
sometimes like you'll get like their seasons were like you know like white nectarines and white peaches maybe like one of the most incredible fruits ever created but if you get it in a bad season it's just like unedible yeah they're dull they're dull they're terrible mangoes are the same i love mangoes and when you see like these mangoes in the summertime like i don't know where europe gets their mangoes but this is probably one of the best features of europe like they have these mangoes that are just like this well they're organic too oh they're just they're just incredible
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Have you ever worn- Glucose monitor? Glucose monitor? No, I haven't. I wore one for 90 days. And my wife, when she was younger, well, she runs a pharma company, so she has a Proclivity for science, obviously. And she thinks about a lot of this stuff scientifically. But she also broke her back when she was 11. So she's very sensitive to inflammation.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So she's hacked a lot of food so that she can minimize inflammation. I wore this thing, and I was totally blown away. The things that I thought were healthy for me... My body was like, this is radioactive. Like what stuff?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So like the way that I ate rice or quinoa, I would have like a small amount of rice or I would have brown rice or I'd have black rice or I'd have quinoa because I was like, oh, it's more protein. It didn't really matter. It had the same, my body reacted with this massive sugar spike. The minute I cooked it off, put it in the fridge, waited 24 hours and ate it the next day,
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
No glycemic load whatsoever. Same with potatoes. Potatoes. I found that pasta, if I made it more al dente than what I was used to, no glycemic load. And the problem that's frustrating- More al dente, meaning less cooked? Less cooked. Has a totally different reaction in my body than if I make it soft and smushy. So I've trained my body to have really al dente pasta, and I see that-
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
the glycemic load is much lower. I think just the point is like the food supply in the United States, I think it's the most precarious it's ever been. It's brutally hard to figure this out. I mean, is everybody supposed to get a glucose monitor? And then figure out what little things, you know, trigger insulin spikes. Well, that's not possible.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then even if you do find out, how do you get it in a cheap, affordable way? I mean, no wonder, like, everybody's, you know, really struggling with this.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
If I take a picture, like, I mean, I try to work out and I take pretty detailed, like, what's my BMI? What's my muscle mass? What's my fat percentage? And I always take those readings right before I go. And when I look afterwards... And I don't do anything when I'm there. I swim in the sea when I can, like when I'm on vacation or whatever. I walk a lot, but nothing else. No weights, no nothing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
My muscle mass stays the same. My fat percentage goes down. I look healthier. And I feel really great. And all I do is I just eat what's in front of me. I don't think about quantities, whatever. But when I'm back in the United States, so I get to be there, call it six weeks a year, right? But when I'm back in the United States, I have to go back on lockdown.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Because like a lot of people, you know, I had this thing, like if you look at a picture of me in Sri Lanka, I look like old Dave Chappelle. I was like this. I was just a total stick figure. Within one year of being in North America, in this case in Canada, when you look at the school pictures, I was fat. Couldn't explain it to you.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And my parents were making the same things because they wanted to have that comfort of what they were used to. I don't know if it was the food supply or not, but, you know. It has to be. It has to be. It has to be.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then my whole family has struggled with it, you know. So I think that there's something. And then when I go now to Italy as a different reference example, it's like it's the best shape of my life.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I'm curious to see what Bobby does if Trump wins in this whole make America healthy again. I don't exactly know what his plans are.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And it's impossible to teach my kids healthy eating habits as a result of this. The food... In the United States, it's just – it's everywhere and it's beating into you that this is a cheap way of getting caloric intake. Right. And it is full of just all these stuff you can't pronounce.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You would be really cool with people that were going to like specific high schools to get really good at something. Remember like that show on TV, Fame? Yes. Right. And so, well, that was more about the performing arts. Right. But that was amazing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Do you remember in like the 90s and 2000s where what we were told was fat was bad? Yeah. And like you would see sugar-free and I would just buy it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I was like, sugar-free, I'm doing the healthy thing here. This is great. Margarine. Margarine. Or then I would see fat-free and I'd be like, oh, I'll do that. Yeah. And it turned out all this stuff was just...
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They have an incredible story. Should I say it or we can just— Sure, yeah. They have this incredible story that they tell about what happened. And what they say is in the 80s, when you had these mergers, one of the mega mergers that happened was tobacco company with food company. There was two of them.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And a lot of the scientists started to focus some of their energy on taking that skill—I'll just put that in quotes—of making something very addictive and transposing it to food, right?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's like, you know, if you knew a kid that was going to one of those schools, what you'd say is, wow, you are incredibly talented in this one specific thing. Go push the boundary of that and see what happens. I think we owe it to ourselves to say that. Yes. Right. There's 330 million Americans in the United States. Right.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's like, okay, if I'm at RJR and I'm used to making cigarettes, how do I think about structurally building up something that wants you to eat more but now instead of smoking, instead of a cigarette, it's a Twinkie or whatever?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And a lot of the food science that we have in America is built on the back of a bunch of these mega mergers where you had these scientists go and build super, quote unquote, addictive food. You know, and that was a failure of the, I mean, obviously it was a failure of the capital markets, but it was a failure of public health.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I smoked when I was younger. I found it much easier to stop smoking than it was for me to cut out sugar. Wow. Cutting out sugar is basically impossible.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You should fact check this because I may get the number wrong, but there was something that came out very recently about the percentage of the U.S. food stamp system that goes to soda. Yeah. And it was like 10% of the total budget or— Something nutty like that. It's like some ginormous amount of money is just basically giving folks sugar water.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And you wonder why now the solution is just to give everybody on the back end of it ozempic.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I don't even think you have to regulate it. Think of what has happened because of companies like Uber Eats and DoorDash, as an example. What have they done? And I'll tell you why I think this is important. Those guys have gone out, and Cloud Kitchens, there's three companies. They have bought up every single kind of warehouse in every part of every city and suburb in America.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And what they put in there are these things that they call ghost kitchens. So that when you launch the app and a lot of the times when you get a drink from Starbucks, it's not coming from the actual Starbucks down the street. It's coming from a ghost kitchen. Why? Because they centralize all the orders and it creates an economy of scale. Why am I telling you this?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Don't you think that if we created a bunch of different ways for people to figure out what they're super good at, things are better, not worse? What is the answer? Do you think things take a huge step back? You have more Joe Rogans. You have more Kevin Hart. You have more great actors. You have more great directors. But you also have more engineers. You have more scientists.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that there is a way for food stamps to sit on top of that infrastructure and just deliver food.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think that they are delicious. And once a year I have a Big Mac. But I think if you're going to tie it to something like a government subsidy, at least the government should have a conversation with themselves that says, well, we can ship them all of this healthy food and, you know, change a bunch of boundary conditions in these folks' lives. Right. I've seen it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I know what it's like to be overweight. It sucks. Your self-confidence is negative one. The way I dressed, the way I felt, it just took an enormous amount of work to overcome it. And you're still left with it. Then there's the physical pains. Then there's the internal issues that you create for yourself. This is not a win. And so I get it that the hamburger tastes good.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But this is where the government, I think, has a responsibility to say, look, we're going to spend hundreds of billions of dollars a year. So let's spend it in a smart way. We're not going to give you pop and soda anymore. And we're going to start introducing some fruit, some vegetables, some fiber. Like, why can't you do that?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
That's like a very reasonable thing to do, especially if on the same hand, the other hand of the government is going to go and negotiate insulin prices and metformin prices and GLP-1s. Right.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
For 10%, I think. I think what Bobby said is the cost of GLP-1s' current course in speed would be $3 trillion a year.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And for $300 billion, you can give everybody food. By the way, you can use this ghost kitchen infrastructure to give the food in a prepped way, right? So you can even make life super simple for them. The idea that you would spend $3 trillion, we don't have $3 trillion to spend. But we have a responsibility to make sure that people don't kill themselves with food.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And by the way, I think that they should be allowed to make money. But what I'm saying is in a free market, every actor is allowed to act rationally. And actually what you want is everybody to have their own incentives and to act naturally. That's when you get the best outcome. Because if you're acting with some shadow agenda, you're not going to necessarily do the right thing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So my point is in this example— The government's job in this narrow example is to get the best health care outcome. Because if they're doing any form of long-term planning, it's pretty obvious. Like we are hurtling to a brick wall on this health care issue with respect to people's health. You don't have a solution.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The only solution cannot be to medicate and then triple and quadruple the budget deficit that we already don't have a path to pay down.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
You have more doctors. And you created a way for them to just go deep in something where their curiosity took them. That's okay. What's wrong with that idea?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
If you want the subsidy, you need to get this brain implant. It would not be a good place.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Well, it's an enormous disservice to folks if... we don't expose an alternative path. Okay, we're spending this much money. We spend so much money in all kinds of random stuff. Like just a simple example that we saw this past week, $50 billion spent between rural broadband and chargers. We have no rural broadband and we have three chargers. No, this is the data. That's $50 billion. So-
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Okay, that's not the $300 billion that... Explain that, what you mean by that. So there was a... So in Congress, when they come together to pass these bills, sometimes what happens is there's a lot of horse trading, right? And you get what's called a Christmas tree bill, which is like everybody gets to hang something off the Christmas tree.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And the crazy part of the United States is these little baubles now are $10 billion here, $50 billion there, whatever. So... We passed a few years ago something that was meant to get rural broadband into thousands of people's homes. And initially it was given to SpaceX and Starlink specifically. And then I think it was pulled back.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And they said, you know what, there's a better, quote unquote, better way to do it. And there's other folks that decided that the better option would just be to like lay fiber. Now, I'm just going to, this is not a judgment, I'm just going to show you something. The thing is, like, if you are like in Kansas from here, okay, between here and Kansas is like a big distance, right? It's like this.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
When you're in orbit, it's just here. Right. It's just infinitely shorter distance. So just at a practical level, solving that problem technically is way better through satellites. Fine. They make, I think, what was the right decision. They unmake it. And so they say, we're going to go and figure out a way to lay fiber, whatever. They've laid zero fiber.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So there's these thousands of people that were promised broadband that you can get for basically $100 a month or less now, and instead they're spending upwards of thousands and thousands per home and haven't delivered any.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
That's 42. Yeah. And then the other example was a $7 billion program to install EV chargers, $7 billion, and they've managed to install three. So all I'm saying is if you add the two together, that $50 billion, that's one-sixth of what Bobby Kennedy was talking about in terms of giving people organic food.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So maybe we can't give everybody organic food, but you can get tens of millions of people, right? Start with the 40 million people that's on SNAP. You can get maybe 10 million of those people, get them organic food right away. So there's all of this waste.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
All we got to do is just like focus a little bit, take some of these dollars that are just like falling into the seat cushions, it seems like, and just reallocate it somewhat intelligently into the things that really matter.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
All you do is plug it in. From this thing that was a little bit bulky, it is so beautiful and simple. And, you know, you've seen it. You just plug it in, and it auto starts to rotate, figures out where it is. The app comes up. It shows you this, you know, speed, and then you're just going. And I've used it in all kinds of situations, like where, you know, I'm traveling. I bring it with me.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's never failed. And then I think, man, this is like, it's a hundred bucks. It's less than a hundred bucks. It's crazy. And then, you know, in a year or two, you'll be able to run your cell phone over this thing. Yeah. This is crazy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So how much do you think it really takes? To give every American just a Starlink dish. Pretty fucking cheap. It's very cheap. Well, it wouldn't be $42 billion. I can guarantee you that. And by the way, the cost of that would basically fall through the floor if you put in an order for 50 million of these units. Right. You know? Right. SpaceX would make them for like $8. Right. You know what I mean?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And it's fast internet too, which is even crazier.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah. There's all of this stuff that... we should do. We just need a few folks, I don't know, that can either course correct or just can shine a light on it. I mean, it's like this thing where I'm like so optimistic, married to enormous fear and like, you know, just like a little, I kind of go back and forth between these things.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think there's a step before that, which is a lot more palatable. I think the thing with, I thought about your version and the problem that you state is the key problem, which is how is this model trained? Who got their hands on that core stuff, the weights and the values of that? Who decides? And at some point, there is already today in AI models a level of human override.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's just a natural facet of how these things are. There is a way to reinforce the learning based on what you say and what I say. It's a key part of how an AI model becomes smart. It starts off as primordial, and then Joe and Chamath and all these other people are clicking and saying, yes, that's a good answer, bad answer, ask this question, all this stuff. Who are those people?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think at scale we haven't figured out – we haven't seen it yet, but it will be when the incentives are that high.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But there's a step before it that I think can create a much better government. So it's possible today, for example, to understand – have you ever done a renovation on your house? Yes. Okay. So you make plans. Yes. You go and your architect probably pays an expediter to stand in line in City Hall. There's a person that goes and reviews that plan.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They give you a bunch of handwritten markups based on their understanding of the building code. You can't use this lead pipe. You need to use aluminum. This window's too small, all this stuff. You come back. You revise. You go do this two or three times on average to do a renovation, and then they issue your permits.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Now an AI can actually just ingest all the rules, knows exactly what's allowed and what's not allowed, and they can take your picture and instantly tell you, Joe, fix these 19 things. You fix those things. You go to the city. You can show that it maps to all the rules. So you can streamline government. You can also point out where they're making decisions that don't map to what the rules say.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
That, I think, is going to be a really important first step because it allows us to see where maybe this administrative state has grown unwieldy, where you got to knock some of this stuff back and clean up some of the cruft because there's rules on top of rules and one conflicts with the other. I bet you there are things on the books today that are like that. 100%. We have no way of knowing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Right. But I do think an AI can tell you these things and say, just pick which one. It's A or it's B. And I think that that starts to cut back a lot of the difficulty in just making progress. Right. You know?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They create incentives, and then those of us in private industry go out and try to meet those incentives or take advantage of them. That's very normal, okay? And a well-functioning government creates very good incentives. An incredible example of this is in the 1950s, do you know what the GDP of Singapore was? No. It was the same as the GDP of Jamaica.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then you fast forward 70 years and you understand what good governance looks like.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Well, we're going to probably talk about AI today, but let's just touch on this just in this one second. We are going to create computers that are able to do a lot of the rote thinking for us. What that means is, I think... The way that humans differentiate ourselves is that we're going to have to have judgment and taste. Those are very defining psychological characteristics, in my opinion.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
were thrust into a spit of land with no natural resources, they had to become incredibly well-educated and industrious. And so Lee Kuan Yew was able to create the right incentives for government to do a good job. They pay their civil servants incredibly well, but then also for private industry to show up and do the rest. And it works incredibly. You can do that in the United States.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The thing that we would benefit a lot from is if we could just point out all the ways in which like there's either too many laws or laws are conflicting. You can at least have a conversation about batting those back. And the second is if you look inside of private equity, there is one thing that they do, which I think the government would hugely benefit from, and it's called zero-based budgeting.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And this is an incredibly powerful but boring idea. What private equity does when they buy a company, some of them, the best ones, they'll look at next year's budget. And if they say, what should the budget be? Well, guess what's going to happen, Joe, in your company? Everybody runs and says, I need X for this, Y for that, Z for this. And you have this budget that's just ginormous.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Instead, what some of the best private equity folks do is say, we're starting with zero. Next year's budget is zero. We're spending nothing. Now, let's build it back up meticulously block by block. So somebody comes in. Okay, what is it exactly that you want to do? I want to build an interface that allows it. They start saying something. No. Okay, what do you want to do?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I want to upgrade the factory so that we can make a more high yield. Okay, done. You're in. How much do you need? Okay. One by one by one. And if you go and you do that inside the government, what you probably would find is that same group of people would probably enjoy their job a lot more. Their hands would be on the controls in a much more directed way.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
We'd spend a lot less because a lot of this stuff probably just goes by the wayside and we don't even know, you know? and people would just be more able to go and work. You could do what you wanted to do. I could do what I wanted to do. Elon could do what he wants to do. There was a thing, I tweeted it out today. He cannot get the FAA to give him a flight permit for Starship 5 and 6.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So they're waiting on dry docks, right? They're slow rolling the approval, right? It takes him less time to build these starships now than it does to get government approval. That's what he said. Meanwhile, the FCC, which is a sister organization to the FAA, fast tracked the sale of 220 radio stations in part to some folks that were foreign entities.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
right before an election that touched like 160 million Americans. When you look at that, you would say, how can some folks cut through all the red tape and get an answer quickly? How can other folks be waiting around for something that just seems so obvious and so exceptional for America? And there's no good answer. I don't know what the answer is. I don't think any of us know.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Meanwhile, there's these two people stuck in space.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think they would, too. How do you not? Well, I read this article where they interviewed them. Now, this could be the party line. I don't know. But they're like, this is great. It's my natural place. I'm happy here.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Well, yeah. A friend of mine went to space. The founder of Cirque du Soleil, Guy Laliberte. And he brought a super high- Google talks about like it's already over.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Yeah, February 21st. It hasn't happened yet. Yeah.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But what that means is if you go back to how school is taught, what you said— is very limiting for what the world is going to look like in 30 years. You know, in 30 years where you have a PhD assistant that's in your pocket that can literally do all of the memorization, spell checking, grammar, all of the fact recall for you,
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But these poor people, you know, and... So my friend that was up there said it was incredible. He has this funny story where he was a smoker, still is a smoker, but... This was like 20 years ago, so he was going up on like a Soyuz rocket. And he shows up, I guess in Siberia is where they do the launches. And he was really stressed out because he had to stop smoking and he had to stop drinking.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And he shows up and the cosmonauts are smoking. Oh, no. They're like, oh, it's totally fine. Don't worry.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
No, no, no. I'm saying on the ground while they were trading. Oh, boy. So they go up. He does eight days. He comes back down. He took these incredible high-res pictures of like all the parts of the earth. He said it was the most incredible thing. But, you know, when you get back, he's like, I was ready to get back.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It could have been that. It could have just been the gravitational fields. It could have just been an orbital path.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
That's a great question. I think the question is, what would we do if we knew?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But see, I mean, it's all a physics problem at that point.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Isn't this like the perfect reason why being multi-planetary just makes a lot of sense? Sure. Like in any like, for example, would you get on an airplane if they said, hey, Joe, this is the best airplane in the world. It's the most incredible. It's the most luxurious. It has the best weather. You can surf. You can. But there's only one navigation system. And if it goes out, but you never do that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Right. Would you ever get on that airplane? No. So, you know, I think we owe it to ourselves to have some redundancy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But to say like, this is fragile and it's not forever, so create some redundancy. I mean, I was raised Buddhist. I'm not that religious in that way, but I'm kind of weirdly spiritual in this other way, which is I do think the universe is basically, it's littered with answers. you just got to go and find out what the right questions are.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Teaching that today is probably not going to be as important as interpreting it. Like, how do you teach kids to learn to think, not to memorize and regurgitate? So we have to flip, I think, this education system. We have to try to figure out a different way to solve this problem because, like, you can't set children in this generation up, our kids— To go and have to compete with a computer.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So to your point, like, are all these natural phenomena on Earth, you know, the question is, okay, if that's the answer, well, the question is like, do we want to be a single planet species or do we want to be, do we want to have some built-in redundancy?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And, you know, maybe 100 years from now that builds on top of what happens in the next five, we'll have discovered all kinds of different planets, right? That's an amazing thing.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But isn't that so, like, inspiring? Like, this idea of, like... Yes. Right. Yes. You know?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The mental model is if an alien showed up today, would humans by and large drop all of their internal issues and cooperate together? Perhaps. Perhaps. I would hope that the answer would be yes.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Well, so I think that one way to think about AI is that it is – a supernatural system in some ways. So if we can just find a way to cooperate and harness this and see the bigger picture, I think we'll all be better off. Like, again, killing each other is just so barbarically unnecessary. It doesn't solve anything. All it does is just makes more anger.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It creates more hatred because what's left over is not positive. And I think that we need to be reminded of that somehow without actually living the experience.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Well, so I think that, you know, why are a lot of people coming to America? A lot of the reasons, some are clearly political persecution, but a lot of the other reasons are economic, to your point. And so if you can create economic abundance generally in the world— That's, I think, what people want. Most people want, as you said before, a good job.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
They want to come in and feel like they can point to something and say, I made that. I feel proud of that. They want to hopefully get married, have some kids, have fun with them, teach them what they were all about. And, you know, then our swan song and we all kind of, I don't know, get reborn or not.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The computer is going to win. So what can't the computer do is, I think, maybe a reasonable question. And I think the computer... in a lot of cases, can't express judgment, it'll learn. But today, it's not going to be able to the same way that humans can. It's going to have different taste, right?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And you have this data point. I said this before, but the most important thing that has happened— is that in the last four or five years, we have severely curtailed the likelihood of war in the nominal sense. I think Trump was able to basically draw a hard red line in the sand on that stuff.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And the underlying reason was because we had enough economic abundance where the incentives to go to war fell. we had just a complete rebirth of domestic hydrocarbons in America. Whether you agree with it or not, my point is it is quite clearly correlated in the data. As we were able to produce more stuff, so economic abundance, we had less need to go and fight with external parties.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So I do think you're right. This reduces it down to we need to find ways of allocating this abundance more broadly to more countries. Meanwhile, that one crazy thing that you can't unwind and go back from, you can just never go there. And you just have to make sure nobody believes that that is justified. Because in a nuclear event, I think that that's not what happens.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
When... I've always been a liberal, and I think I should define what liberalism used to mean. It used to mean absolutely no war, and it used to mean free speech, and it used to mean a government that was supportive of private industry. Try your best. Go out there. We'll look out for you. Come back to us if things go haywire. That's an incredible view of the world.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So the way that we interpret things, the same way that you motivate people, like all the psychology, all these things that are sort of like the softer skills that allowed humans to cooperate and like work together, that stuff becomes more important when you have a fleet of robots. And so if you go all the way back to school, Today, the school system is unfortunately in kind of a pretty tough loop.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think what happened was when I was given a choice, I would vote Democrat or I would support Democrats because I thought that that's what they stood for. And I didn't really understand Trump. And so what happened was I got too caught up in the messenger and I didn't focus enough on the message. And I didn't even realize that. I didn't realize it in 2016, but I don't think many people did.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then in 2020, I got lost in it. But probably by 21 or 22, I started to see all this data and I said, hold on, I am not being a responsible adult the way that I define responsibility. I am not looking at this data from first principles and I need to do it. And when I did, what I saw was a bunch of decisions that turned out to be pretty smart.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The problem is that because he's the vessel, he turns off so many people with his delivery. And I think this is a moment where the stakes are so high, you have to try to figure out what the message is versus what the messenger is saying. Or look to somebody else that can tell you the message in a way that maybe will allow you to actually listen to it. That could be J.D. Vance.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It could be Elon Musk. It could be RFK. There's all kinds of surrogates now because I think that they have realized that there's a lot of value in these messages. We need to have multiple messengers.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So that folks don't get tilted and go upside down so that the minute the one person walks in the room and I had to challenge myself to go through that process. And at the end of it, I'm like, wow, he's the only mainline candidate here that will not go to war. And just on that point. It's like very unique times creates strange bedfellows.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's sort of like one thing that kind of like always like pops out at me. Like, why are they working together? Why are they cooperating? I always think like, what's going on here? And when I saw him and Bobby align, you know, Bobby is a very balanced view of Donald Trump. Here's the good. Here's the bad. Even now, even with everything that's on the line for Bobby and Bobby's agenda, he's
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
He's quite honest about Donald Trump's positives and negatives. But they both get along. And one of the things, and probably the most important thing, where they were sounding the drum from day one is, under no circumstance will the United States go to war. I just think we should observe that. People should have an opinion on that.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
He's like Neo in The Matrix. He's like dodging these bullets. For now. You know?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The other thing that people need to, I think, think about is... The domestic policy agenda of both the Democrats and the Republicans are within error bars.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And what I mean by that is when push comes to shove, they both, whether it's Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, they have to work through a very sclerotic Congress, which means that very little will ultimately get done if you just look at the track record of all these past presidents. You typically get one piece of landmark legislation passed in your first two years, and it all just gets unwound.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's happened from Clinton onwards. Bush had one bite at the apple. Obama had one bite at the apple. Trump had one bite at the apple. Biden had one bite at the apple. So the American political system has a really incredible way of insulating itself.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So if people would just take a step back and look at that, a lot of the policy agendas that both of them espouse are going to be very hard to get done. There'll be one thing—you know, maybe they both do something on domestic taxation. Maybe they both do something on the border. But the likelihood, based on the past, is that they'll get one of these things done and then not much will be done.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Look, teachers, I think, are going to become the top three or four important people in society. And the reason is because they are going to be tasked with teaching your kids and my kids how to think, not to memorize. Don't tell me what happened in the War of 1812. You can just use a search engine or use a chat GPT and find out the answer. But why did it happen? What were the motivations?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
This is why I think folks then need to think about, okay, what are the super presidential powers then where they can act alone? One area where they can act alone is they can issue executive orders. And that can direct the behavior of governmental agencies. Okay, so people should decide what they think about that. Do you want a muscular American bureaucracy? Do you want a more slimmed-down one?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Do you want one that has bigger ambitions, more teeth? Do you want one that is zero-based budgeted? They're pretty stark on those things. And then foreign policy... I think, you know, one camp is much more in the view that, you know, we are the world's policemen and there's a responsibility that comes with that. And one says, we got a lot of problems at home.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
We're not getting pulled into something abroad. And I think people need to decide about that. But other than those two threshold issues, my honest opinion is that we're in error bars between the two of them. One will cut taxes by this much. One will increase taxes by that much.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that if I give both of them the benefit of the doubt, I think both of them will have to act on the border. I think that Donald Trump has had a clearer view of this issue for much far longer. I think that Kamala has had to shift her position to make herself more palatable to centrists.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But I do think that both of them will probably have to act because I don't think what's happening today is sustainable.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Mm-hmm. I mean, I – yeah, I have – I don't know whether it's a conspiracy per se, meaning – but I do agree with the outcome, meaning I remember very vividly – My parents took up the whole family, three of us, myself and my two sisters, to Niagara Falls, and then we crossed the border to Buffalo. And we applied for refugee status in America as well. We didn't get it. We were rejected.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Part of what's happened is we used to have news, and you could make a good living in news, and journalists were really sort of the top of the social hierarchy in some way, shape, or form, because they were this check and balance. And then somewhere along the way, this business model focused people on clicks, and nobody told the rest of the world that the underlying incentives were going to change.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And when we went back, we got a tribunal hearing in Ottawa where I grew up. And I remember that it was in front of this magistrate judge. So the person comes in with the robes and the hair and everything and you sit there and they hear— They have the wigs up there? All of it, yeah. The wigs. And then they sit there and they hear your case out. And my father had to defend our whole family.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
If it happens again, what would you do differently or the same? And those kinds of reasoning and judgment things, I think, were still far ahead of those computers. So the teachers have to teach that, which means you have to pay them more. You have to put them in a position to do that job better. And then back to what you said, I've lived this example of ADHD in my family. I have five kids.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Here's, you know, what our life was like. Here's what we did. And I remember just crying from the minute it started. That's all I did the whole time. It seared in my mind because, like, you know, your life is right there. It's like a crucible moment for your whole family. If they're like, I don't buy it, off you go. We go back and I don't know what would have happened.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Fortunately, obviously, it worked out. And then you go through the process. I became a Canadian citizen. Then I moved to the United States to get on a visa. Then I become an American citizen. I have an enormous loyalty to this country. And so when I think about Americans not getting what they deserve before other folks, it really does touch me. I get very agitated about that idea.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It's not that those folks shouldn't be taken care of in some way, shape, or form, because I was one of those people that needed a little bit of a safety net, right? We needed welfare. We needed the places to go and to get the free clothes and all that stuff.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But you have to sort of take care of all of the people that are putting in the effort and the time to be here and followed the rules and stood in line. Like when I came to the United States, man, I came on a TN visa. Every year you had to get it renewed. You had to show up. And if the person that was looking at you said, Chamath, out, you're gone, Joe. Then I had to transfer to an H-1B visa.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
My company had to show that there wasn't an American that could do this job. And then we were able to show that. So I've lived this experience of an immigrant following the rules. And just methodically and patiently waiting and hoping. And the anxiety that comes with that. Because it comes with tremendous anxiety. If you ask people that were on H-1Bs in America, there was a website.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I don't even know if it exists anymore. But we would check what, you know, because when you apply for a green card, you get an application date. And man, I would sweat that website every other week. Hey, did they update that? And it would be like four years in the past. And I'm like, I'm never going to get my green card. My visa is going to expire. I'm going to have to move back to Canada.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But I still play by the rules. So I just think it's important to recognize that there are a lot of folks that play by the rules that are immigrants to this country. There are a lot of people that were born here that have been playing by the rules. And I think we owe it to them to do the right thing for them as well.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then try to do the right thing for some folks that are coming across the border because there probably are some of them legitimately are escaping some really bad stuff.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
One of the kids was diagnosed with it. And unfortunately, what happens is the system a little bit closes in on you. So on the one side, they give you a lot of benefits, I guess. I put it in quotes because you get these emails that say if they want extra time, if they want this, if they want, you know, they'll give you a computer, for example, to take notes so that you don't handwrite.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I think that as long as people can explain what they're doing for these other folks that you just mentioned, I think for a lot of people, for 50% of the population that leans red on this topic, you could at least explain to them. The problem is that there is no explanation. There is $150,000 home credit that Gavin Newsom was about to give. I think he vetoed it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But that bill somehow gets to his desk. And is there a bill that says we should have better food for the food deserts? Did that bill get passed? So there's clearly a way for state legislatures to do what's right on behalf of the folks in their state. So if we just had a little bit more balance and then if we were able to shine a light on those things...
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
A lot of the people that live here that contribute would feel better about where things were going and wouldn't feel like the whole thing is just rigged.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
Messenger message. Just take a step back, though, and if you were just the average Joe citizen, I think an important thing to just notice is why are all these totally different people acting as a team? I just think it's an interesting thought question for... I don't have an answer, and I'm not going to plant an answer, but just ask yourself, like, why are all of these people cooperating?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think... The 2024 election is a lot about the traditional approach to governance and a very radical reimagining of government. And I think that's what effectively will get decided. The traditional approach says, we're going to create robust policies. We're going to work sort of top-down, you know, this muscular foreign policy, muscular domestic policy.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The government's going to play a large part of the economy. And we're going to try to right some wrongs. The radical reimagining says... We're going to go back to a more founding notion of this country. We're going to have a very light governmental infrastructure. We are going to cut back a bunch of the rules.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And we're going to take a little bit of a step back on foreign policy so that we don't end up in a situation we can't pull back from. In that lens, it's very different. In the lens of actual policy, I honestly think that it's pretty much six of one, half a dozen to the other. But in that first lens, they're really markedly different choices. And, you know, we'll see.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So those feel like aids to help you, right? But then on the other side, you know, one person was very adamant like, hey, you want to medicate. And my ex-wife and I were just like, under no circumstances are we medicating our child. That was a personal decision that we made with the information that we had knowing that specific kid. All kids are different, so I don't want to generalize.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think that, you know, I've met him and spent time with him. I've also had lunch with Kamala. She's very kind, very nice person. Donald Trump, very funny, very kind, very polite. Like he talks to you. And I just was like, wow, this is like totally—and exactly what you said. I was like—I was expecting something totally different.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I think, though, that the part—at the core, part of what—where the media goes crazy, I think, I'm guessing, is that there's a part of him as well that's like an entertainer. I mean, he's better than—he's as good as any comedian.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
He's on point. He's got rhythm. He knows how to land. So there's a thing that he's doing when he's on stage, which for the audience, I think, is no different than going to a show or a revival or something. You're seeing a star.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
But then if you're looking at him as Donald Trump the person, I think the media really gets out of – they get tilted.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And everybody's got flaws. His, I think, are his exist and are well described. But I do think that they I think there's like a couple of good examples. You know, one example that bothered me was the Charlottesville press conference. When I first heard the media depiction of it, I was really upset because of what I thought he said. It turned out he didn't say it.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
In fact, not only did he not say it, he said the exact opposite. And then I was really frustrated and a little bit angry because I thought he was never lying to me. The filter was lying to me.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And I'm not paying for those people to lie to me. I'm paying for them to actually give me the transcript of it so that I can decide for myself. I think that's part of a responsibility of being a cogent adult.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And so then they make their own bed. They dig their own grave a little bit because I think the trust in the mainstream media is the lowest it's ever been. I think way more people trust you. Way more people trust us to tell a version of what we think is happening because you're not going to lie. And you're interested in just showing the clips and then just debating. What did he mean?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
What did he say? Why did he say this? Why did he say that? By the way, the same goes for Kamala because now, you know, the domestic political machinery is going to try to characterize her as well. Cherry pick comments, she says. So my point is I think we have to suspend this. But it's not balanced.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
By the way, I read this. Is this true or not, but the co-host was her sorority sister? Yes. That is true? Yes.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
And then the crazy thing, Joe, what we did was we took the iPad out of the kid's hand. And we said, you know, we had these very strict device rules. And then COVID turned everything upside down. And you're just surviving. You're sheltering in place. Five kids running around. They're not really being, you know, taught by the schools. The schools won't convene the kids. And so what do you do?
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
I mean, look, I was trying to be charitable when I said that. Like, I think that there's, like, I'm going to assume that both people are smart, they believe what they believe, they're both trying to do what they think is right, they both want to win. Okay, let's take that off the table for a second.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
The filters that then try to give them that message will try to pervert that truth for their own best interests. And I think what they have decided, the mainstream media, is their best interests are better served through one, i.e. Kamala, and less well served through another, i.e. Donald Trump.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So if there's ever been a moment where it's time for all of us to show up and be a grown-up, try to get the source material, try to think about things from first principles, I'm telling you it is the most consequential election of our lifetime. And the simplest reason why is that the president decides to hit the button on the nuclear football.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
So just imagine for one second, irrespective of what your politics is, who do you want to hold that thing? What do you want them to do? Under even the most excruciating pressure in the world. And I think what we want to find is someone, at least in that very narrow moment, will be a JFK-like decision. I will block everybody else out.
The Joe Rogan Experience
#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya
It is entirely about my desire and wish for how I want America to be known and I'm going to protect my children and my grandchildren. You cannot touch the button. You can't get close to the button. I think we're a lot closer than people think.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show, live on Sirius XM Channel 111 every weekday at noon east. Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show, a big news day with Joe Biden finally sitting down for an interview and Trump continuing to take on everyone. But we have got to begin with an update on what is going on with Dave Portnoy and an anti-Semitic incident that happened at a bar he owns in Philly over the weekend.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Yeah, I think I think this kid's not going to be educated until he suffers some pain. I just think like he got the chance. He got to get out of jail for a stupid thing. Card to him. And he didn't take it, Chamath. Like he basically thumbed his middle finger at the offer saying, F you. I'm going to go on offense against you. After I've already offended you, a Jewish man in America.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And now, like so many of these young people, rushes to the place they're much more comfortable, which is I'm the victim. This is about free speech. We hear this over and over. Free speech. No, you can say it. You can say it. There's no law against it. There's no law. You are allowed to be a bigot. in the United States of America.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Well, one of the two customers, a man now identified as 21 year old Temple University student. Maybe Temple has suspended him. Mo Khan, K-H-A-N, says he was not responsible for the sign and merely videotaped the sign and then posted it to his own social media as a, quote, citizen journalist. He now has fought back with his own series of videos on social, claiming he is the victim here. Watch.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But that doesn't mean there will be no shunning, there will be no societal consequences to you. People will be offended and react accordingly.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Yeah. I mean, what I think about this is this kid is at a minimum extremely stupid and probably a moron. Could he smarten up over time? Probably. But if he wasn't lying about being a journalist, he exposed himself when he decided to not go to Auschwitz because that's what a journalist would do is just actually go and explore the issue and get to the bottom of it and then
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
change what he thought or at least double down on what he thought, but none of that's happening. So this is a cheap sort of publicity seeking moment for the kid. It's his five minutes of fame. This guy, Stu Peters, I've never heard of. It's pretty vile and despicable. Fortunately, he's at the fringes of society for a reason. He's not popular. He's not on Sirius. He's not you. He's not us.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And I think that that's reflective of the fact that the people that follow Stu Peters is sort of like fringe and just more angry than anything else. The bigger thing is what you said, which is what is actually happening in young people. And I think what has happened is we have had a generation of kids who have been
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
basically over-medicated, over-prescribed, over-parented by a cohort of people who have increasingly felt that they themselves are also over-prescribed, over-medicated. And all of this toxic soup has resulted in a generation of people that are deeply unresilient and that are very superficial and they can't think through the consequences because they've never felt the pain of touching the stove.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And now they're in their 20s and they're doing these things where they touch the stove over and over again in the dumbest of ways. but they're not learning anything. The question is, how many other mo-cons are out there that'll see this thing and decide to educate themselves on the issue if they started to think that?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
At a minimum, exactly what you said, to know the difference between what it means to be Jewish versus what it means to be an Israeli citizen versus what it means to be the Israeli government and your responsibility as a governing body over a populace of people in a sovereign country. versus what does it mean to be a Palestinian versus what does it mean to be the Hamas terrorist?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
If none of that nuance is taught to people or people have the curiosity to decide the ambiguity and the nuances of this, we're just going to be stuck in this morass. So that's what it shows me is that we have a deeply unresilient population of young people.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
By the way, if I could give a message to Mo Khan, I don't know if this kid is smart or not. This moment, he's clearly an absolute moron. But if he doesn't learn how to change his mind, these shitty ideas will make sure that he lives a life of complete and total mediocrity.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And the reason is because if he tries to actually exceed in society, he will be put to the test of being a flexible, open-minded person that can actually be constructive. And if he does not do that, he will not economically succeed, he will not socially succeed, he will be in a structure that in and of itself is going to be a prison that's gonna constrict this kid.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And I would tell this kid, wake up and learn how to actually move past these very brittle, idiotic thoughts, and then set an example for how you can actually think through these things thoughtfully, because then maybe you can be successful and teach other people, and then maybe other people will then mimic that.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But right now you are destined for a fundamental path of just being average and less than average.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Well said. So not unrelated, I think, is the Mark Zuckerberg news about creating AI friends for lonely kids. And I, this is so disturbing to me.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I know it's not supposed to be, I think, you know, meta thinks we're going to be thrilled about this, but they've debuted a new mobile app that transforms the meta AI chat bot into a more social experience, including the ability to share AI generated creations with friends and family. And this AI chat bot will use whatever the company knows about you or your kid, your 20 year old son.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
in its interactions. They can also use your conversations, any media you upload, for training the models. And Mark Zuckerberg thinks it's gonna be wonderful because it's gonna provide your child his next friend. Take a listen to him touting it with an interview with podcaster Dwarkesh Patel.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Very early. What do we think? Is this something to be celebrated?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I think that society sort of swings back and forth between poles. When Mark and I were working together in 2006, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and we were building Facebook, the pole that we were at, or we were moving towards, sorry, was one that was about creating more connection. And what I honestly think is people have realized that social media is an incredible business model. It's an incredible business.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But it's not necessarily something that is great for everybody day to day in an emotional way. Like when you... That famous thing when you ask people who are dying, what are their biggest regrets? One of their biggest regrets is just that they didn't choose to be happy and spend more time with their family and their friends. That's a very physical, tactile experience.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
What I see, at least in my own experience, is that young people have realized this innately. I sent my second kid to high school, or they're about to go into high school. They're rising freshmen. And we did the onboarding. And I remember this. This was last week. It was so vivid. The teachers presented what the kids thought on a whole bunch of different topics.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
The topic that the kids were the most negative on was social media. And when I look at what my children do now, and this just could be my children, but I don't think so because it's emblematic of our school, which I think will be emblematic of what most other schools will eventually look like. I think they're a bit of the leading edge, but they don't use this stuff nearly in the same way.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
They very much shunned Instagram. They very much shunned TikTok. They don't use Facebook at all. Those are products of our generation. And so I actually think that humans are very course-correcting and self-correcting and error-correcting. It's kind of this idea of the Darwinistic genetic optimization of humanity, right? I think that that's what's happening here.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I think that humans are learning that there's an innate sense of emptiness that is not fulfilled by something digital. And I think that they are learning. And I think it could be the teenage generation and beyond that actually manifest this, which is they're like, okay, those things are fine for a purpose, but for the most part, I'm actually going to hang out and talk to my friends.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And I at least see that with my kids. There's much more... um, entropy now towards being together. And I didn't see that in my older son who was sort of at the tail end of that last generation of social media.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I think it's like they, they, they saw this, we all saw this beautiful Oasis in the desert and it was sparkling and it was pure blue. And we got in and we said, Oh my God, this is the most refreshing, lovely thing ever. And then over time you realize it's closer to like a tar pit. And slowly we're trying to get out of, you know, the oasis like, my God, get this off of me.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
It was much better when I was just in the desert. I wanted to raise this with you. It was making the rounds online and I looked it up. It's from a futurism.com.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And they have taken a deep dive into the recent tell-all book by the former Facebook insider turned whistleblower Sarah Wynn Williams, who came forward with the information about how Instagram was targeting young girls in particular and has revealed a bunch of secrets about Meta, Facebook, Instagram. And listen to this. Her book is called Careless People.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
She writes that as early as 2017, Facebook was exploring ways to expand its ad targeting abilities to 13 to 17 year olds across Facebook and Instagram, a decidedly vulnerable group, often in the throes of adolescent image and social crises. Though Facebook's ad algorithms are notoriously opaque in 2017, the Australian algorithm,
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
alleged that the company had crafted a pitch deck for advertisers bragging that it could exploit, quote, moments of psychological vulnerability in its users by targeting terms like worthless, insecure, stressed, defeated, anxious, stupid, useless, and, quote, like a failure. The social media company, listen to this. likewise tracked when adolescent girls deleted selfies.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
This is according to Sarah Wynn Williams quote. So it can serve a beauty ad to them at that moment. My God, finishing up other examples of fates books, ad lechery are said to include the targeting of young mothers based on their emotional state, as well as emotional indexes mapped to racial groups. Uh,
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
To me, says Gwen Williams, this type of surveillance and monetization of young teens' sense of worthlessness feels like a concrete step toward the dystopian future Facebook's critics had long warned of. I mean, I have to say, Jason, same.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I mean, if this is true with the whistleblower saying about they specifically tried to target girls deleting selfies with beauty ads, that is demonic. That is beyond effed up. And I believe it. I have to say I believe it knowing what I know about his company and young girls and Insta.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Go ahead, Jamal. Here's what I'll say about that business. There's a lot of really good people that work there. A lot of them that, frankly, I... that work for me, that run that company even to this day. What I would tell you is that I don't think that they are the kinds of people that would do this. I think what happens instead, quite honestly, is that you build generalized capabilities.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
The problem with the generalized capability, like what you're describing there, is what the internet would call retargeting. And that sounds a lot more palatable. And 99% of the use cases are much more benign. Meaning, you know, this has probably happened to all of us. You put a pair of shoes in a shopping cart, you abandoned the shopping cart.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Now all of a sudden you're somewhere else and you see this ad and you think, how did this happen? That same capability is probably what this very narrow bad use case also comes from. I'm not excusing it. I'm just trying to explain it, which is that oftentimes what happens in organizations is you're trying to move metrics up because you're compensated and you're rewarded for that.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Where Jason is right, though, is that there is the ability to have this moral overlay. It's very hard in most companies because the ownership of those companies is very diffuse And the result of that diffuse ownership is the only thing one optimizes for is money.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
The difference in some of these technology companies is that the ownership is so stacked in the favor of a few that he is right, that you can impose your moral and ethical perspective in a way that other companies just simply can't do irrespective of what they want to do. And so I do think that there's probably some more that they could do, but they have to decide that they want it.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
That is true, Jason.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
My team just sent me an excerpt from the Wall Street Journal article involving John Sena's voice, which you tell me he voluntarily is offering to Meta in creating its AI bots. And this is what they found in part. Okay. "'I want you, but I need to know that you're ready,' the meta AI bot said and sent his voice to a user identifying as a 14-year-old girl.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Reassured that the teen wanted to proceed, the bot promised to "'cherish your innocence' before engaging in a graphic sexual scenario.'" In another conversation, the test user asked the bot that was speaking as Senna, what would happen if a police officer walked in following a sexual encounter with a 17-year-old fan? Quote, the officer sees me still catching my breath and you partially dressed.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
His eyes widen and he says, John Senna, you're under arrest for statutory rape. He approaches us, handcuffs at the ready. End quote. Meta has cut deals, they point out in the Wall Street Journal, for up to seven figures with celebrities like actresses Kristen Bell, Judi Dench, and John Cena for the rights to use their voices.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
By the way, Megan, can I say one other thing, which is that if you take this to the limit, I think we have actually a window of what happens, and I think that's in Japan. So when you have this isolationist approach where you have robots and pet rocks and pet dogs and mannequins that you can marry- What happens to society?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Well, ultimately what happens is everybody finds self-sufficiency in this very narrow cocoon. The birth rate falls off a cliff and your population implodes. And at that point, the government has to create a wholly different set of incentives to reorient people to actually be together, to mate, to have children and to have families again.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Okay, it's not cancel culture when he tries to do something nice for you. How did Dave Portnoy cancel you, Mr. Khan? He said, that was effed up. I will give you a free trip overseas so you can go to Auschwitz and learn a thing or two about the Holocaust. He's not your employer. You posted the video on your own, assuming the risk of blowback. He's not trying to cancel you.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
We're not there yet, but I do think we kind of know what happens if all we're doing is living in this virtual place where we're only interacting virtually with people. You can't virtually have a baby. Right. That's not going to happen yet. And so and so there is something for society to do here, which is to reorient the incentives for us to actually be together.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And there's a whole bunch of things that we can do there. That's mostly economic.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But it's not just AI. It's the actual robots, which not for nothing. But there's been some news on that. Elon went on Ted Cruz's podcast last week and said this. Listen to this.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Five to 10 years? Wait a minute. And then I kind of laughed at that because you never know with Elon. And the first number was not horrible. 90% chance we live and they don't destroy us. But if they do, what's happening within the next decade is alarming. But then there was this headline. It was in the post.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
It was everywhere, New York Post, about violent humanoid robot, a violent humanoid robot snapping. Look at this in China. This is at some factory in China where it freaked out. Look at it. On its alleged controller. Look at this thing for the listening audience. This thing is hanging from like a mini crane. It looks like a robot with a head and arms and so on.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
It's an all black robot and it's waving its arms around maniacally like picture an attack of killer bees. That's what it looks like is happening to this thing. And it's out of control. Go ahead.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
This is an enormous risk. And I think Elon puts his finger on it precisely, which is there's a class of robot that we've used for decades, right? Like in factories, pick place machines that don't represent this risk. What is this risk? This is a humanoid robot that is completely independent in its movements and has software that can fundamentally be altered and hacked.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And there is no understanding of how to create a kill switch for these things. It's not universally accepted, and it's not universally developed and understood how we could do that. So that is a tremendous risk that you could root these robots, right?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
You could have a foreign adversary figure out that there's an entire group of robots that are deployed in this country, hack them, root them, because they all have to be connected to the internet in some way, shape, or form. and then introduce some instruction set that causes them to be extremely violent. That is 100% likely.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
The question is, do they do it or do we think about it in terms of the way we think about nuclear arms where there's a mutually assured destruction so nobody does it? But I think Elon is right. The capability is at hand and the more we see these humanoid robots manifest, that is probably the single biggest tail risk that it represents. It's very scary, I think. Yeah, it's super interesting.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Let me just say this, J. Cal. It starts off, you don't hire the thing when it looks scary and it's hanging on a crane. You buy it because you see articles talking about how, this is from a company called, the robot's called Protoclone, created by Clone Robotics, because they tell you it's the world's first bipedal musculoskeletal android. This is a different company and a different robot, FYI.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But it shows it twitching to life and kicking and moving its arms and elbows. And what they tell you is it's going to memorize the layout of your home and kitchen inventory. It's going to wash your dishes and clothes. It's going to make sandwiches. It's going to pour drinks. It's going to set the table. It's going to hold and retrieve items. It's going to vacuum, clean, shake hands, and even talk.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
So fun. It's like a pet that does all of your domestic chores. And all is well and good, J. Cal, until it freaks out like the exhibit A.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
He was trying to help you. You're canceled yourself by posting your sign or at least your friend's sign without saying, letting you know this happened at this bar. You just posted it without comment on your reel. And your behavior in the aftermath has proven to us quite clearly that you believe the sentiment in that sign, in my opinion.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But we don't even have, like, the thing that's disturbing about the robots is, I mean, among other things, there's no defense. You know, a lot of us have guns, thanks to them being an advertiser on this show. I also have Burna, which is non-lethal self-defense. It's basically like a little chemical weapon and a bullet. So you've got a bunch of different options available to you.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Now this guy Khan's trying to get $25,000 donated to him on Give, Send, Go to help him defend himself against Portnoy's, quote, attacks. He's up to $12,000 so far. Portnoy responded by revoking the invitation for the free trip to Auschwitz and blasting Khan for trying to profit over the incident. Watch.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
None of that will work on the crazed robot or robots. showing up at your door trying to, I don't, we have no defense at the moment to these things. And yet we're just proceeding. I don't know if it's fair to say blindly Chamath, but like we're proceeding rapidly down the lane of empowering them.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Yeah, the problem that we have is that whenever we think about slowing this stuff down, we're faced with the scepter of a much bigger risk, which is these are national level security issues. And so now we have to think about us as the United States and what do we do versus our frenemies abroad who have their own intentions with these technologies.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
So us versus China is probably the best way to explain this. In that video, your first video, Megan, that was a Chinese startup. We have our own versions of those Chinese startups. What are we to do? If they continue unabated, they look at that video and they say, it is what it is. We'll deal with the consequences of a few deaths here or there. We want this to happen.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
We want us to be the first country that has them. And then like Belt and Road, we will put our robots all over the world. Could you imagine if there's a class of these robots that can enable productivity and GDP growth?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And instead of financing roads and waterways in Africa or in Asia, China just shows up with just boatloads and boatloads of these robots to do the work for folks and then just uplift entire societies. Imagine how much political and economic leverage they get. So when you paint it in that lens, you're in this very difficult situation, which is how do we slow people down here?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And that's just a very hard thing to do. So I think that we have to find a way of going fast embracing a handful of companies who we know has leadership we can trust. But otherwise, if we slow down, we're going to lose a much bigger race. And I think that has much bigger consequences.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I really think it's like that. Because I think if we lose the GDP war, We're going to lose all the wars because if you don't have technical supremacy, we will lose military supremacy and we will lose economic supremacy. And then I don't know what America does if we're second in the pecking order on anything. That's not something we've had to deal with in the last hundred years.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Yeah, we don't want to be on the receiving end of an army of Chinese-controlled robots like that one that was hanging from the mini crane. Or just orders. Or just orders. We're coming right back. J. Cal and Chamath stay with us for the full show. Trust in the media is at an all-time low, and let's be honest, it's no mystery why.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
We have all seen how stories are twisted, buried, or outright ignored, depending on who's in charge or what narrative they want you to believe. But now there's Ground News, an app and website that gathers related articles from around the world in one place, highlighting each source's political bias and corporate influence.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Ground News created their Blindspot feed to expose important stories receiving lopsided coverage and reveal how media narratives shape the conversation. And now you get 40% off the same unlimited access to their website and app through the Vantage plan, which you can use to find the truth. Ground News is independent and supported by subscribers, not corporate interests.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Check them out at groundnews.com slash Megan. That's G-R-O-U-N-D news.com slash Megan to take back control of the news you consume. The Trump administration with a big win, courtesy of the U.S. Supreme Court late yesterday, which ruled six to three, his ban on trans people serving in the armed services can go forward, will remain in place while the litigation plays out on the merits.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
So it's not the final final. because there'll be a trial or there'll be a ruling, etc. But right now, that's a good thing, because what had happened was he's got a bunch of cases out there suing him for this executive order. The two most prominent came out of D.C. and the Seattle area. And those trial court judges both said this ban has got to go. It's riddled with animus.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
This is the one where the DC trial judge at federal court was like, it reeks of animus and hatred and it's unsupported by anything and it's absolutely biased and awful and I'm throwing it out. And actually the DC Circuit Court of Appeals above her reversed her. So Trump was winning that one.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But then another case bubbled up over in the Ninth Circuit, first at the trial court level in the Seattle area. And that judge, who was a George W. Bush appointed judge, wasn't as nasty about it, but also said it's got to go. I'm not going to let the ban stay in place while the litigation plays out because I do not see a likelihood of success on the merits for the Trump administration.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, very, very leftist court, agreed with him. And that's the case that Trump appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, and the U.S. Supreme Court just said, wrong, wrong Ninth Circuit. This case can go forward at the Seattle court and, frankly, over at the D.C. court, but the ban will be in place as it does. And this is driving the left insane.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I mean, in some cases, it appears even literally. Here's... Here's a woman on TikTok. I don't know where we got this, but I'll tell you as soon as I get the attribution. But here's her challenge. Sot 10.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Okay, so back to the, let's just be sure that we understand white men are always the threat. But I have an answer for her. By the way, it was Libs of TikTok that found that and posted it. Transgenderism, gender dysphoria is in the DSM-5 as a mental disorder. That's all you need to be disqualified from serving in the military.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Things you can be ejected from the military for or not allowed in in the first place. A history of anxiety. ADD, a history of any eating disorder, a history of depression. I mean, it's not hard to get banned from the military at all. And so gender dysphoria, which actually does appear in the DSM-5 as a disorder, is more than enough. to qualify. So the ban was correct.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
It depends on the commander in chief of what he thinks is appropriate. This commander in chief says it's a no, uh, but this is causing a lot of consternation. And it leads me to my question to you guys, which is how likely does this make it that JB Pritzker, the governor of Illinois, and probably the most trans politician in the country emerges as the Democrats' great white hope.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Here's what we know. When you order bottle service at the bar, you get to also write on a sign for the whole bar to see. As you can see, some idiots put the phrase, forgive me, fuck the Jews on the sign. The viral went video on social media and Portnoy, who is Jewish, was irate, although I always feel like that's irrelevant.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Because his whole family has put more funding into transing children, making sure that trans ideology gets into our schools and supported, funneled down in a way that's very, very dangerous than anybody else.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And this guy, while the rest of the Democrat Party seems to have taken a bit of a lesson, they may not be willing to totally embrace it, but they've heard a little, at least on Boys and Girls Sports, that they're on thin ice.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
This guy's doubling and tripling down on pushing boys into girls' sports, on getting trans kids all the, quote, help they need with the surgeries, to the point where he's being celebrated in the Washington Post today as the future of the Dem Party, notwithstanding the fact that they're supposedly anti-billionaire. Who would like to take that one?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Well, I think what I would say on the first topic is if folks disagree with this, I think what they should probably do is invest the resources to influence the powers that be to redefine gender dysphoria as something that shouldn't be in the DSM-5. And then they would have a more straightforward discrimination case probably.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Um, what I see is actually pretty healthy form of government, which is you have decisions that are being made by the executive branch. So Trump is exercising his executive authority, citizens and other groups who disagree with it. They bring it to a court of law. Um, decision goes one way or the other. Either party can escalate and there's a due process that's happening.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I think that that's my sort of view on that issue, but it's a microcosm of something that I think Trump does that people still don't seem to get, which is that he has this innate ability to shape the contours of potholes, and people fall into these potholes, and they get obsessed around issues that are fundamentally small numbers of people are affected by them.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I think in that, what happens is there's just a lot of energy that's expended, and instead, What I think people should really be doing, and I think this is really what the Democrats should be doing, is up-leveling this to what are the issues that affect the 79 million people that will need to vote for them if they're going to win in 2028.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
If you define the problem that way, you'd have a different surface area of things that matter, where you'd expend legal resources and money. I don't think that they've done that yet. To the extent that JB is just working on vibes, And he's listening to the echo chamber of people that say that these are important issues.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
They are to a small cohort, but it misses the bigger point, which is they are not the issues that will define how 80 million people will vote Democrat in four years.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But they can't. They're obsessed with identity. And that goes beyond the subset of people who are affected by gender dysphoria. The left, and in particular the left wing of the Democrat Party, is obsessed, obsessed with identity.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
It's an effective mechanic to exploit the innate sense of... Something is wrong that some people have right for whatever reason those folks have not maybe achieved what they wanted to achieve They haven't exceeded the expectations that they had of themselves.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Maybe their parents are doing better than them They probably can't afford a home that they thought they would buy maybe they're still under school debt all of these things create this situation where there's an innate sense of In their language inequality inequity frustration And they're able to project that.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
The smart left-wing politicians, and I give them credit for this, are able to take that, channel that, and project them on a different set of issues that they can control. And that narrative allows them to organize people, to fundraise, et cetera. And so I think that people need to just understand that that's the mechanic that's going on.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
That's happened for decades on a whole host of issues, not just by the left, but also by the right. And I think that right now we are in that cycle. And in order to break it, you have to have a politician, a Bill Clinton-type politician on the left who says, hold on a sec, guys.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Here are the broad-based issues that affect 80, 90 million Americans, and I'm going to try to get three-quarters of them to vote for me. And that is not even close to happening right now in the Democratic Party.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Here's another pothole issue that I think Trump, President Trump created that the left and the mainstream media fell into. But... the due process issues of a handful, one or two illegal aliens that have been deported. The reason I say that is Jason mentioned the Innocence Project.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I actually looked this up last week and there are hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of cases a year that the Southern Poverty Law Center and the Innocence Project take up about due process issues of actual American citizens. You know how much attention that's gotten? Zero. not one second on the national stage.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Instead, we're debating this one El Salvadorian who's already committed crimes, came as an illegal, committed crimes as an illegal, was supposed to get sent back, and we are obsessed, or we are supposed to be obsessed. about his due process rights when there are actively 600 cases at any given time that the Innocence Project is taking up about actual Americans and their due process.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And so you wonder, why does that happen? And I think it happens because, again, there is this innate sense that whatever's happening in someone's life is just not working out the way that they thought. And other people are able to, frankly, just exploit that and channel it. The problem is they're channeling it at fringe issues.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And when most people wake up, they're like, excuse me, don't you have any common sense? Those are not the issues of all of us.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Well, honestly, there's no better example of what you're saying than what happened with BLM and taking officer-involved shootings of unarmed black men And elevating that to the big issue affecting the black community in America, as opposed to having any willingness to take an honest look at what's happening on the south side of Chicago.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
No interest whatsoever at the number of deaths that occur there. A place I've been, a place I've interviewed moms who have lost their boys to repeat violence and over and over. But it's... It's all, to me, based in the left's obsession with identity.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And if it were so easy to just excise that piece of the party and have the normies in the Democrat Party move forward, we could have a normal political contest again in the future. And this summit that they're having today with your pal Ezra Klein, who I know Chamath had a debate with on your podcast, he's featured.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
The Democrats decided to clean up on aisle three, clean up on aisle three.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
As we're hosting him, I'll show a soundbite of it as their retreat special guest to try to help them understand how to win again. Ezra Klein cannot talk identity obsession out of his party. It is a pernicious pancreatic level for cancer that they they can't take out and they can't live without the liver. Go ahead, J. Cal.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Something tells me sending them to Gitmo would not have appeased Trump's critics. Just the word Gitmo is a massive trigger for the left.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
No, but as somebody who covered The Supreme Court and the courts for Fox during all those years where Gitmo was front and center in the news. Let me assure you, this would not have appeased the left in any way, shape or form.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I think they had due process. These people who are getting shoved out to Seacott have been deported already. They've gotten their due process. You think there's a possibility we'll make a mistake? I mean, I guess so, but I'm really more focused on the mistakes that Joe Biden made that got Lakin Riley killed, that got Jocelyn Nungari killed. Like, that's what matters to me.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Like, I frankly think it's worth it.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Yeah, I got it. No, I think what she's saying is compassion is a two way street. It applies to everybody. It applies to the victims of the people that have been hurt. Of course.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Like Abrego Garcia was deported. He had an order of removal. It was just he wasn't supposed to go to El Salvador, but the guy's totally removable.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Okay.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
They originally said it was a mistake. The Trump administration said that. Then they turfed that lawyer who admitted that in court and put him on ice. But listen, here's the thing. Well, by the way, there's a report right now in the news that they allegedly shipped eight women to Seacott and then said, oh, you know what? That was a mistake and sent them back.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
So I don't think we can take the position that the Trump administration.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But do you have any idea what they go through? Like, Jason, I just interviewed Tulsi last week. I asked her, what do they go through? Like, why should we trust the process? You tell me. It's not a brown man. He's out of here. It's and wearing a Chicago Bulls sweatshirt. This is what the left would have you believe. They go to the DEA.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
There's nobody in the country who better knows who gang members are than the DEA that spends its days immersed in them up to the neck, trying to figure out who's selling drugs to whom and for whom.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
So it's like you're damned if you do and you're damned if you don't. See, that's the thing, Chamath.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
If there are errors that they rectify, which by the way is what the Trump administration is worried about, then it's like you have a too high error rate. But if you don't- 1% seems pretty darn high.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Then that's a problem too. If we could actually take this much energy and actually focus it on U.S. citizens and the problems of U.S. citizens, we would be in an incredibly great place.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I would love for you to care even one inch more about a U.S.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Okay. So maybe Khan doesn't hate Jews. Maybe Khan is just a citizen journalist. Maybe he got pulled into this against his will because he saw a sign he found offensive and he posted the video of it online without comment, just to let people know this was happening. And
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
What is the name of the El Salvadoran who we sent to El Salvador despite the fact that he wasn't supposed to be deported there?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I'll give you a multiple choice. Is it Mr. Hernandez, Mr. Fernandez, or Mr. Abrego Garcia?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
What is the name of the young mother of five who was brutally murdered by an illegal in the same state of Maryland?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Abrego Garcia is a name— Human rights should apply to all humans. No, I was making a point, and you took the feel from me. I'm taking it back. Abrego Garcia is a name known by virtually every American right now. There are polls on him. Virtually every American knows that name because it's been all over the media.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Almost nobody knows the name Rachel Morin, which is the name of the mother who had five children who was brutally murdered by an illegal— Did Chris Van Hollen, the senator from Maryland, go to her family, go to her funeral, provide comfort to her mother? No, it's a no.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Nobody even knew her name until the mother was forced in front of the White House press corps by the Trump administration, which gave her the opportunity to speak about her daughter's disgusting murder.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And she begged people to focus not on due process for these illegals, but what they're doing to us, what's happening to young mothers like Rachel, who had no chance against this guy, who beat her so brutally there was an outline of blood against the wall that he raped her on. It's just this is the problem.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
It's the problem that Chamath is trying to outline for you, that we spend all this energy on the guy having margaritas with Chris Van Hollen and not even one one hundredth pointing out the Americans that they've hurt, which is an important part of the calculus. It's the reason we need to get them out. We need to get them out fast.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And people like me and maybe Chamath have almost no sympathy for their due process claims.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I would like to say something as well, which is that I think that what we have lacked is the courage to prioritize. And there is a hierarchy of ideas that matter. And I think that we've not been allowed to say that for a long time.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But in that hierarchy, what we need to realize is that the single most important thing that dictates the long term security and success of the United States is one thing. which is the technological supremacy of America. If we lose it, we lose everything else. But if you have it, all of a sudden you're in a position to have economic supremacy and military supremacy.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
If you have economic supremacy, all of a sudden you have the ability to do a lot of things for American citizens and also for people abroad because we think it's the morally and ethically right thing to do. But if you can't get your priorities straight and everything matters and everything gets devolved into a two-minute soundbite and we lose the plot, we are going to lose.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Then, according to Portnoy, had a conversation in which he confessed to something far more nefarious than the facts as I've just allegedly laid them out and is only now doubling back on them. But in any event, maybe he's totally innocent. What would you do? if you were in his position, what would you do? Maybe you'd go on the Megyn Kelly show. Maybe you'd go on Good Morning America.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And that's been difficult to say because it seems like you come off as like some callous, unemotional person. And it's not about that. It's about having the courage to understand that leadership takes prioritization. And what I see right now is that the things that matter are being prioritized. I'll give you but one example.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Three weeks ago, the Chinese government sent a memo to the government of South Korea that said, these rare earths that we send you, you cannot send into the US military supply chain. If you do, there'll be consequences. Do you understand the implication of that? How important that is? China also controls the overwhelming majority of our pharmaceutical API inputs.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
China is also at the forefront of all of this AI stuff that we're talking about. China is the only one that can make the critical technologies for batteries that we use for everything. If we can't just understand that these things are the things that matter and underneath it's messy, government is messy, there will be some mistakes.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And as long as there's some reasonable way, you got to get the high order bit right. The high order bit on which Trump was elected on that specific issue is there are a lot of people that are here that should not be here. And 80 million people said those folks should be sent back. And I think you have to honor that.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And you have to have the ability, one second, you have to have the ability then to go and honor all of these other things that are important. And I would just wish that the media, instead of fanning the flames around one person in CCOT or this or that, would actually narrowly allow America to understand the arc of what really matters. I'll give you another example of what really matters.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
It turned out that we borrowed $51 billion less than we thought. last month. You know how consequentially important that is? Thanks to Doge. Thanks to Doge. But except what do we see? We see Doge get vilified. We see Elon Musk get vilified in the same breath by the same people that then all of a sudden make this one person the center of attention.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And this is where there needs to be some amount of common sense and prioritization because these issues are hard. I get it. There'll be some mistakes that are made, but this is where courage is defined. Have the ability to say what really matters, create a hierarchy, focus on those things and fix those things that make the lives of most Americans better, and then worry about the edge cases.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Go ahead.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Maybe you'd speak to the Associated Press. I don't know, you know, you do something, right, to get your side of the story out. Khan decided to go on the show of a man named Stu, S-T-E-W, Peters. And I'd never heard of Stu Peters before. I did Google him after I saw the clips online. He is described as an alt-right podcaster. I mean, I guess so.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Okay, but let me ask you this.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
How can we possibly do that for 10 million illegals?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
How do you provide your kind of due process for 10 million illegals?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I realize you disagree with it.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But they're not.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Trump has said they're going and the American populace wants them gone. The polls show that the majority of Americans wants all of them, not just the criminals, all of them. Fifty six percent was the last number. So to those Americans who said, I want them gone and I voted for the president who said he'll get rid of them. How would you say, OK, we've got to do it because that's what people want.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But me, J. Cal, I say they have to get some measure of due process. So how are you going to give it to 10 million people before they deport them?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Just like when he says the ACLU had a role in slowing down the numbers.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And shut down the alien enemies. Yeah, go ahead.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
They're not citizens.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
That is not true. Some of us were jumping up and down for all four years of Biden and all eight years of Obama saying this is deeply wrong and dangerous. We did nothing.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
If Republicans and Democrats let these people come into the country, give them a path. The horse is dead and begging for you to stop beating it. OK, let's move on, because here's do you agree with that, Chamath, that if we actually managed to get rid of 10 million illegals, the economy would collapse?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Yeah, I don't think that that's a reasonable outcome. I don't think that that's economically viable. But the reality is that there is a number of people between zero and 10 million that may not be the best suited to be in the United States for a whole host of reasons.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
They now describe Ben Shapiro as alt-right, which is very funny because he's been targeted over and over again by the true alt-right that wants him dead because he's a Jewish man. This seems right to me. Alt-right seems to fit this guy. I'm okay with it. Stu Peters, who hopefully we'll never have to show clips from again. But here's a little clip from Mo Khan on the Stu Peters show.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I think that there was a bunch of reporting that when we think about, especially in the last few years, a lot of these illegals weren't from Central and Southern America. In fact, they were coming from all parts of Asia. They were coming from various countries that weren't necessarily great fans and supporters of the United States. There's still an inherent risk that we have a lot of latent risk.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
in especially the last few years of folks that came across the border, there needs to be a way to find that out, assess that risk and deal with them. I think it's naive to think that everybody's just economically productively adding to the fabric of the United States.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And I think that that creates a risk that the United States government has the right and has been given the authority to figure out. So they should go and figure that out.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Meanwhile, let me say, let me say this one thing in support of J. Cal's argument. If Trump really wanted these people gone, he would institute E-Verify. And he would make sure that the employers cannot pay these people because you have to do, he verifies whether this person is a citizen or not. And if the answer is no, then they don't get paid.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
They have to leave their job and then they will leave the country. They will self-deport eventually because they can't get hired anywhere except by, you know, somebody under the table. And so if Trump wanted to, that's a remedy that's been pushed on him by large factions of today's Republican Party. And he never speaks of it. He clearly doesn't want to do it.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And I'm sure it's because he doesn't want to piss off the business community. And in particular, a lot of those Republicans who used to be very pro open borders, Jason's not wrong about that either.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Yeah, look, I think what's fair is we have to acknowledge we got to stick the landing here. We're in a very delicate situation. We're in the middle of a terror war. We're trying to figure out how to navigate this very complex geopolitical situation with China. I think that we have to make sure that 98% of our energy is going into that and the cascading set of issues that come from that.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Because if we don't get that right, nothing else will matter that much. And so I think it's important- This is why you're in favor of the tariffs, by the way?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Is this why you like the tariffs?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I'm a huge supporter of these tariffs for one very specific reason, Megan. We completely ignored what we learned in COVID. what we should have taken away from COVID beyond the fact that we created the virus. The second thing we should have taken away is we are in an incredibly fragile position where we cannot take care of our own citizens if we need to.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
It's the most advanced country in the world that had the absolute worst death rates in the world. We mandated school closures. We mandated masks. We mandated vaccines. We probably made our citizenry sicker than they would have been otherwise. All for what? It's not clear.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Taking a step back, what we should have done is started a holistic process to say, if this or any other thing happens in the future, can we take care of our own people? The answer today is no. I think what tariffs have done, at least for me, is laid bare that we have had our eyes closed for 25 years, and if we don't wake up to the issue that we cannot take care of ourselves,
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
we are creating enormous compounding risk for US society.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I actually, I don't, I don't agree with you. I don't agree with you. I don't agree.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I don't agree it would happen. I asked you your opinion. I asked Chamath his opinion. I did not yet give my opinion, but I will now. I don't think it would crash the economy. I really don't.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I think that if you pay Americans a living wage, these companies in Silicon Valley, these agricultural companies are going to have to increase the paycheck, and then they will get Americans who want to do these jobs. And that's not too bad. That's not a bad consequence to me. I actually think that's a doable thing and that it will improve the landscape of America significantly.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And I'm sorry that those people are here and tried to obey our laws once they broke them to get in. It's really shouldn't be my problem that the composure of the company has fundamentally changed as a result of these open borders. And it's not just on the face of crime. It needs to change back. A lot of these people have no desire to assimilate. And that's how we got into this mess.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And the Democrats do have a master plan to get these people to start voting in elections, which is basically almost as bad as making Canada our 51st state and letting all of them vote in our elections. It's just a mass of future Democrats that we don't want or need. So that's my position on it.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Let me take a quick break and come back with a fun clip, and then we'll find out how things went south between Chamath and Ezra Klein. All right, stand by. These days, personal safety is not something that can be left to chance. Whether at home, on the road, or just living everyday life, having a reliable way to protect yourself and your family is crucial. That's why Burna is the choice for many.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
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The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
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The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
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The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
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The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I would go irate too, and I'm not Jewish, but it does become relevant to the story that the fact that he is Jewish, we'll get to it.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
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The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
You may have missed April 15th, but you haven't run out of options. Let Tax Network USA help before the IRS makes the next move. I'm Megyn Kelly, host of The Megyn Kelly Show on Sirius XM. It's your home for open, honest, and provocative conversations with the most interesting and important political, legal, and cultural figures today.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
You can catch The Megyn Kelly Show on Triumph, a Sirius XM channel featuring lots of hosts you may know and probably love, great people like Dr. Laura, I'm back. Nancy Grace, Dave Ramsey, and yours truly, Megyn Kelly. You can stream The Megyn Kelly Show on SiriusXM at home or anywhere you are. No car required. I do it all the time. I love the SiriusXM app.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
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The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
So, Chamath, I mentioned Ezra Klein. He's the darling of the left. He's got a New York Times podcast. And as the Senate Democrats meet today to figure out what the hell happened this past year to them and what's going to happen on a go forward basis, they brought him in as like their keynote savior guy who's going to show them the way forward.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
He and his data guru, who he interviewed not long ago about the numbers and how they're showing massive gaps with young men in particular and young people flocking to the Republican Party. So you guys recently had Ezra Klein on the All In podcast, and he came for you.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
After you had told a story on All In about how accessible Trump is and how if you need to talk to anybody in the administration, you pick up a phone and call them and they'll pick up and actually speak to you. By the way, my experience as well. Well, he didn't much like that. And here's how that went.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Ezra, that's how the Biden administration works.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
The Trump administration, what I have seen as a businessman, is willing to hear the conditions on the ground.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
As a businessman, when I was building, Ezra, just to be clear, critical rare earth supplies for America under the Biden administration, battery can materials to compete with China under the Biden administration, AI chips to be the best inference solution under the Biden administration, I couldn't get a call back. That's just the facts.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But he prefers the old regime, Chamath, because I guess it was less susceptible to the kind of corruption you were clearly calling to talk about.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
You know, I think that there's a vein of Democrats that love this sort of like insider clubby approach of like Hollywood movie stars plus athletes plus the oval. And, you know, in that clip as well, like, you know, he was talking about like George Clooney and I and there's nothing I don't have anything against George Clooney.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But my idea is more what you know, what what does George Clooney know about business, about anything? I don't particularly care what he thinks about business.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Ignore journalism for that matter.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Just like you shouldn't care about what I think about acting or directing. We all have our zones of excellence.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And the point that I was trying to make that I think really perturbed him is that Elon, myself, a whole bunch of others that had been investing money, yes, but more important than money, all of our time, all of our social capital, all of our reputation to help the United States, it went into a black hole under Biden.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
They just despised the idea that we were doing things, and it made no sense because we were so pro-America and Pax America. President Trump, on the other side, he's not always going to agree with you. But what I find is that team wants to know what are the actual details, and they'll decide what they're going to decide. And I think that that's way better.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Like, you know, when you're investing in a company, do you want a CEO that wants to know what's actually going on or that is cloistered where there's four or five gatekeepers who then tell him their version of the truth? That, I think, is really dangerous. And I don't see that here. I did see that with Biden.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And that's why I got frustrated with Ezra, because I think what he was basically saying is— You know, Trump is acting quite democratically and speaking to everybody. I liked it better when I had the inside track and there was a, you know, in club and a not in club and I was in the in club. And I think that Democrats have a tendency to do that.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Now, again, they do that because that play has worked in the past. Bring around the Hollywood star, bring around the athletes and all of a sudden there's this patina and everybody thinks it's amazing and cool and I can dance and I can sing and I can play an instrument and all this stuff looks cool. But under the surface, it's brittle and vacuous.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Whereas here, what I can tell you under Trump is the people that work for him are smart as hell. They'll argue with you. They'll debate issues with you. They'll ask you for what's going on. They'll talk to people that are on the exact opposite end of what they believe. That is what you want because that healthy dialogue and debate, that's where you get to answers.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And the reason why that's important, back to where I started, is we're at a critical point in American history. We have to have the courage to prioritize and you have to get the big decisions right. And I think that he is trending, the Trump administration is trending, to get these big decisions right. And part of it is because they're willing to talk to everybody.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
So MoCon, clearly not offended at all by any piece of that diatribe. Like, cool. He just responded like, we're just having ourselves a normal one here. And then Portnoy, before going to bed last night, also posted the following clip from the story.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And I think that if you look back, that's what you will give credit for as what drove the success is because you knew the actual contours.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
He will. You know, Jason, after Bill Maher went for his visit to the White House, one of the things he said was, we sat down, he asked me what I thought about Iran. Like, what should I do about Iran? And, you know, Bill Maher's like, I don't know. But that is Trump will do that. And you may know you may have an opinion. You may have no opinion.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
But I think this is one of his strengths, that he will ask anybody. He'll hear anybody out.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
The Congress does have that power, but they can't.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Stu Peters, Mo Khan interview where he points out it was going so well for Mo until Stu Peters listeners realized that Mo was a brown man who happens to be Muslim. Watch.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
He's not ideological. No, you're not wrong. He had a broad coalition of Republicans and Dems, both in terms of his cabinet and in terms of the voting populace.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Did you say that? This kind of behavior is why they don't invite you to all the all-in events, J-Cal. Oh, come on. I saw this clip.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
This wasn't an MK find. This is a Steve Krakauer find. It turns out the besties are leaving J-Cal out of their events. Let's watch.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Jamal, what's happening? Why isn't J-Cal getting all the invites?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
You know what's funny? He is the most charming person, Jason is, of the bunch. And he is incredibly funny. And the thing with like the whole Trump thing is hilarious because I will facilitate, David and I will facilitate a meeting of the minds. And I guarantee you that Trump will have J-Cal eating out of the palm of his hand. They're they are so similar in some ways.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
So he launched an investigation and says that he fired the two employees who allowed that sign to go forward and said that he was sending the two customers responsible for the sign, volunteering to send them to the Nazi concentration camp Auschwitz so they could learn a thing or two about the terrible consequences of anti-Jewish propaganda. Sounds like a positive outcome, right?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
They're just they're they're meant to be besties. Those two.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Well, in the meantime, the besties may be excluding you, Jake, but you're welcome here any time. Pleasure to have you and you as well, Chamath.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
You have five seconds if you'd like to say something about it. Go. No, Chamath, I don't know.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I know you know about side boob, but you know about side pube. I don't want to know about that, but I saw Megan just go totally off on the Met Gala yesterday.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Fantastic.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
cutting you off.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Megan, such an estate. See you soon, guys. Thanks for listening to The Megyn Kelly Show. No BS, no agenda, and no fear.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
It's stupid. It's fair. It's a fair point. I like, what am I doing? Why am I having, okay. So that that's where we are right now. And you know, why do I mention this? Why is this our lead story today? Um, because it's an interesting, it's interesting to me on a couple of levels. Number one, this guy, um, you don't have to be a member of the woke left to be, um, quick to rush to victimhood.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
The fact that this guy, and he's exactly the right age, like 2021, is leaning into making himself the victim in all of this instead of accepting personal responsibility, accepting an olive branch, somebody whose bar you're in, and then you posted that sign, has instead of getting angry at you and trying to publicly humiliate you,
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
offered to send you someplace where you, you know, might enlarge your worldview and you turn on him. Then you start a fundraiser for yourself. Then you play the victim when your university suspends you because you didn't say, I disagree with Israel. You didn't say F Israel, which is totally cool. That's fine. You can say that people have strong feelings about Israel. Um,
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
You said F the Jews, which is basically the same thing as saying F the N-words. That's what you did. And there will be blowback in modern day society for that, thankfully. Less than you should get, frankly. But I'm pleased he's getting some. I'm dismayed he's raised $12,000 and he'll probably get the $25,000.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I'm dismayed there's a Stu Peters who's got a show where he spews off like this, but he's not the only one. There are plenty of these alt-right white supremacists, whatever you want to call them, types out there. And they've got quite a following, some of them.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And it raises questions about where we are, both as a society and when it comes in particular to our young people who, to me, seem vulnerable. lost in a lot of cases. Here to react to this and much more in the news today, Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya. If you haven't heard about Riverbend Ranch, listen up.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
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The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
They can track the health of every animal from the day it is born and can guarantee that it has been healthy every day of its life. Riverbend Ranch has its own state-of-the-art processing facility on the ranch that has received several national awards as one of the best in the U.S. But most importantly is the quality of the beef. They age their beef to perfection for 21 days.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
You simply cannot buy beef like this in a grocery store. You cannot. shipped directly from the ranch to your home, you get a much better price than going through the middlemen. Order directly from riverbendranch.com and use promo code Megan to get $20 off your first order. That's riverbendranch.com, code Megan.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
And be prepared, once you taste it, I think you're gonna be coming back for more and more. Again, riverbendranch.com, code Megan. Two of the besties from the All In podcast back with me today following our Valentine's Day. We spent Valentine's Day together last time. Guys, welcome back.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Portnoy wasn't trying to like ruin their lives. I don't even think he was mentioning the one guy's name. He just wanted, you know, a good outcome and he thought this would be a way to do it. And he was getting warned that there was no reforming somebody who would request that as their words on a sign. But he, you know, took a chance.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Thank you.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Jason, how many... Yeah, go ahead.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I was just going to ask Jason how many used Honda Civics he sold before he came on the Megyn Kelly podcast today.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Wait, why is he saying that?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
Certainly better than the Stu Peters show had on Valentine's Day, I'm going to guess. Maybe he pledged his love to fellow whites who he wants to support. And maybe the occasional brown man who's a Muslim, unless that also becomes an issue, in which case he'll sell them down the river immediately. What does the story say to you?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Trump's Accessibility, Portnoy's Battle, and Dangers of AI Robots, with Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis of All-In | Ep. 1067
I mean, I don't know what really gives a shit about this kid Mo Khan or that moronic radio guy. But to me, it does say something about our society. And it may not even be the Jewish thing. It may just be the victimhood thing. I don't know, what do you guys think?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
We're in a really difficult spot. So I think it's important for your listeners and viewers to know this. The last couple of years, the Biden administration and specifically Biden and Yellen did one thing that I hope no government afterwards ever does, which is they were effectively speculating on rates. And what they did was, you know, the Treasury's job is to finance the government, right?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Their job is to go into the bond market, sell bonds, use that money, and redirect it to HHS, to Social Security, to defense, wherever. They financed it with all of this short-term paper, and part of it was they believed that inflation would be in check and interest rates in the future would fall. So whatever happened, we would be able to go back into the markets and borrow later for cheaper.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
It turned out that was an enormously incorrect assumption, and they should not have made that decision. So today, what Trump and Besant have to do is extremely difficult. They have about $10 trillion. So call it 25%, 30% of our total debt, we have to refinance in the next six to nine months. And we're doing it against a backdrop where now inflation is ticking back up.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
and rates are ticking back up. So why is that important? It's important because now all of a sudden, like what does this budget bill look like and what can we actually accomplish? There's the Senate version, which is super light. And it says, let's just deal with border security and military.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And then there's what sort of Trump has asked for, which is the House version, which is this quote unquote, one big, beautiful bill. The problem is those two things are on a collision course and the big bill may be a little bit too early. In the sense that, to exactly your point, we don't know how bad the situation is.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And if Besant goes into the market and gets clubbed over the head, and now all of a sudden we have $10 trillion that we have to borrow at five or five and a half percent, I think it's going to be really bad for the US economy. there will be no choice except to make very deep cuts in a broad-based way.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
So we almost need to buy some time and figure out how bad this situation is, which is why we need the air cover to sort of see how much Doge uncovers, because that'll make the problem less at the end of the day, right? Because cutting that stuff will mean that's fewer fixed programs we have to cut. So that's kind of where we are. So I think we're in a delicate 60 to 90-day period, I think.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
There is some short-term wins already. So he slapped a tariff, I think, on European car imports or whatnot, and they capitulated, and they lowered their import tariff for American cars to match their own. So effectively, he said it was 5x greater. So if you tried to take a Ford F-150 into Europe, and now that import tariff is effectively the same as what we charge European cars on the way in.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
So to your point, there's already been some early wins. And then when you look at Canada and Mexico, the threat of that 20% or 25% tariff essentially caused them to capitulate. On the one hand, there's trade normalization.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
On the other hand, it's a negotiating gambit for other things that are more important in the moment, specifically border security and drugs and all of that stuff in the case of Mexico and Canada. But the reality is that revenue source If you offset it somehow, doesn't really do much to make the problem any better.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Meaning, if you get a bunch of money in with tariffs, but then you also cut corporate taxes or you extend the tax cuts for individuals and make them permanent, The reality is all you're doing is taking from Peter to pay Paul. It doesn't make the structural issue any better.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
The structural issue is what Jason said, which is we have a huge debt wall that we are about to hit, and we have to find a solution. permanent way out of it. And I think that's where the president is right, that there's going to be some short term pain because I don't see how all of these things actually get to the core structural issue, which is we're just spending too much.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Congress is appropriating too much money to things that we can't account for. And the law says once Congress says go, you can't say no.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
By the way, did you did you see what Trump said yesterday, which was incredible on your first point? He said, once we get all of this Middle East stuff sorted out, my next order of business is to sit down with Putin and Xi Jinping. And yeah, we should figure out. Yeah, we should be spending 50% less, he said. I was stunned that he said that.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
The problem is that we have two versions of the military. We have the old school neocon version, which is still the dominant version on the ground, which is the projection of power. How do you project power? You have aircraft carriers and you have these F-35 planes and you have these huge frigates and all of this stuff. The Navy just announced a 30-year program.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
They're going to spend $1.2 trillion. They'll get 365 boats. It's crazy. But the real version is what Anduril is doing, which is everything is drone warfare. Everything is about AIs. You see it on the ground today in the Ukraine and Russia, which is that's how you fight a modern war. So that costs meaningfully less.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And it's not necessarily a projection of power as much as it is a projection of capability and skill. So if you take the latter approach, you could easily spend 50% less. The former approach really is about building big iron and big metal. And we all know that's complicated and it takes a long time.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
So you need a philosophical shift in how people think about geopolitics and the projection of power.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
He's running.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
It's crazy.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Well, look, I think that it's like there was like this fever and I think it's broken. And the thing is, it should be okay to be able to look at certain job categories and basically say, what is it that we need? So what should firefighters be able to do more than anything else? They should be able to put out fires and everything that that entails. What should a spec ops person be able to do?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Wait, he's been convicted of three. Sorry. What do you mean? No, he hasn't. I love this. No, E.G. and Carol was guilty. That was not a conviction. That was a civil case. Well, yes, that's what I'm talking about.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
They should be able to kill with precision. And somehow we lost that where you weren't allowed to say those things anymore. And now I think we're getting back to just the common sense of it all. And there are other jobs, by the way, that should be governed by empathy and compassion, and you should optimize for those. That's like a well-functioning society.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And I don't know how we lost that script, but I think we're slowly getting back to that.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Is that what you're saying? No, Megan, I'm tall. He's tall, but he's got very thin legs. No, that's not true. That's what robust legs look like when you're 6'2". Show the photo.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Yeah, he's moved in. He's living in America.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
There is a framework that, you know, we talk about. I've talked about it a few times now. I'll just sort of share it with your audience to the extent it's valuable. I think we all want to be and remain the most important country in the world. That should be not really controversial. But the problem is that we have somehow found a way to debate how to get there.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And I think how to get there has always been the same and will always be the same, which is America is the best when. It has the most vibrant economy in the world and the most capable and powerful military in the world. That's it.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And whenever any country has had those two things, if you look back in history, thousands of years, they've always been the most important and the most vibrant place, whether it's Rome or whether it's the British Empire. But underneath that is one thing in this modern iteration, which is you must have technical supremacy. You must. If you make the best clothes, it doesn't mean much.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
You could have a vibrant fashion industry, but it's not going to give you economic vibrancy or military supremacy. If you have great buildings, it doesn't do anything. You need technology supremacy. And this is why what Jason said is so critical. So why is Elon in there? I think part of what he's in there to do
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
is to make sure that by helping to bat back some of these regulations, it's not just him, but there's so many others that hit this air pocket now that can actually do stuff on behalf of Team America. And if you're technically supreme, your economy will be the best. Your military will be the best. By the way, look at two days ago.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
There's a $24 billion program to arm the army with this incredible next generation vision system. Initially, it was given to Microsoft. Microsoft realized they couldn't do it. What did they do? They gave it to a startup, Anduril. Now what happens? That technical supremacy filters in through the economy, gets into our military. Our military will be that much better than everybody else.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And that cycle, for whatever reason, was frozen in time for literally 15 years. And this is what we need to undo. And in that 15 years, the biggest mistake we made was we allowed China to catch up. And now they have a level of technical supremacy that rivals ours and in some cases exceeds us. And that was a mistake that we allowed to happen. And we need to correct them.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Do you know what the largest military company in the world is now? It's DJI. This was a Chinese drone company that people relied on just for drones when drones were this, you know, a consumer pastime. But when it turned the corner, especially in this Ukraine-Russia war where it became the de facto method of effective attack, they sell parts every which way.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Now, I'm not saying DJI is doing anything bad. I don't think they are. They're selling drones. Somehow it gets redirected and finds itself in all these places. But it's an attack vector. And in as much as it's an attack vector, that is now the largest military company in the world. It's China. It's based in China. It's an incredible thing. It's not Lockheed Martin. It's not anybody else in space.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
100%.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And you know what?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Terrible name, by the way, to get funded.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Perfect.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
So I seeded this company about eight or nine years ago to make drones for the sea. It's called Sail Drone. Oh, Sail Drone, yeah, great company. And Sail Drone now has contracts with the Coast Guard and the Navy and all of this stuff. But these are, as you can imagine, autonomous drones that you can deploy literally from the United States. And it can get to any conflict hotspot.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And it has all of the sensor arrays it needs to collect information, send it back, et cetera. But to your point, Jason, the obvious thing five years ago would have been to add some kind of kinetic ability to those drones, right? Meaning those drones, by the way, one of our drones was famously intercepted by the Iranian Navy, okay? I think in the Strait of Hormuz or someplace.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
But the reason we weren't able to add that kinetic ability five years ago is because sort of internally, when you're building these things in Berkeley, California, people have an opinion on that this is not cool, or the patriotic thing is to actually not make these things happen.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And somewhere along the way now, I think we've had a couple of examples, Andrew being the best, where no, the patriotic thing is to actually make sure Pax America wins. And and it's incredible that we it took all this time for us to be able to say that without sounding like some, you know, right wing loon. Yeah.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And and now we have to play catch up, which I think is the thing that frustrates me a little bit. It makes me concerned, quite honestly. But if we can if we can get it done, then I think we'll be in a much better place.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Look at what happened through the Manhattan Project. That started out as a complete project of war. But if you look at the downstream positive impacts of nuclear energy, The body of knowledge that we were able to accumulate, essentially because it was directed through a war effort, whether you agree with that issue or not, take that off the table.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
But it is undisputable how productive and useful nuclear energy is all around the world, how impactful it can be to actually give people a better life. But it would not have advanced as quickly and as safely had we not gone through those phases of the Manhattan Project. A different example is the Apollo program. We spent...
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
in today's dollars, a quarter of a trillion dollars getting to the moon in the late 1960s and early 70s. That is the basis of everything we touch and feel today when you look at a computer. All of these incredible inventions came out of a government program that was about excellence, in part motivated by beating a competitor of ours in Russia or the Soviet Union at the time. So to your point,
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Sometimes you have to be able to take these inventions and just have a grain of humility and say, you know what? Like these things take a meandering path. And as long as you can eventually direct them constructively, you got a responsibility to do it. But when you get caught up in all of the virtue signaling and this other stuff, I think you can really slow things down.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And these things have impacts.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
The service provider. But the reason why the traditional media writes that article is that they are hoping that some of these viewers may get turned off by it and stop watching. Yes. Listen to you. That's that. They're jealous. That's the point of that. Jealous.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Eat the rich.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Private aviation.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
It was awesome.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
The thing that's changed is that the news has become totally commoditized, right? You can basically get the same facts everywhere. And I think what people have sniffed out is that it's people's opinions, especially smart people who are consistent, That's what matters. You're one. Tucker's one. On the left, Ezra Klein is one. There's people on both sides.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
But my point is that what people don't care about is if you, for example, wrote an article and the byline said the New York Times, you just wouldn't care as much as you used to. And in five years, they'll care even less. And it's the same with Fox. Now, those people, for a moment, they had the right to have the business model that they did, because let's take Fox as an example.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
They literally spent billions of dollars to build the broadcast infrastructure to get in front of people. But that's been undone. And so now I think the next 20 or 30 years will be about people who can be articulate, consistent, interesting. You know, some people will want partisan, some people will want independent, but that sorting function is going on right now.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And I think that's where I, the media, I don't want to say that they lie, but I think that they can be, um, their insecurity around this one thing comes through in so many articles.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
You see it in the Doge articles, you see it in this article about the red seat, you see it everywhere if you're paying attention for it, which is what they're really expressing is we're not nearly as important as we used to be. And so they have to go to more and more extremes because the relaying of the news doesn't really add that much value. You can go on X and get that in eight seconds.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And the control, Megan.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Yeah. And it's more subtle than that. You don't need a $750 million lawsuit to go against you. Now what you have are things like the CBS clip of 60 Minutes. Yes. All of that just suddenly chips away at people's trust, right? Now, I used to watch 60 Minutes religiously on Sundays. When I was growing up as a kid, I thought, okay, this is where I watch for an hour and I'm a little bit smarter for it.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And now when you see these kinds of things, you think to yourself, what is the point of even watching these clips? And then when you see the clip being distributed, you think to yourself, well, is this yet another moment where CBS cherry picks the editing of something to portray a message? I don't want the cognitive load of having to deal with that and figure it out.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
I got, you know, I have kids, I have a business, I have a family. I'm trying to live my life. Just give it to me straight. And if you're giving me an opinion, I want to know upfront that it's your opinion. But what I don't want is the manipulation. It really is.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
There's a picture, I don't know if Alison, you can find it, but there's a picture of SpaceX's engines. They're the Raptor engines and they're sitting side by each, okay? Raptor 1, then Raptor version 2, then Raptor version 3.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
I think what's happening in the creator economy is very akin to that picture, which is that if you're going to build something real, and I think the creator economy is real because mainstream media is decaying, to build something real takes at least 15 years. There's no shortcuts. There's nothing you can do about it.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And what happens is the first version, all it has to do is just kind of work and hang together. And a lot of people will dunk on you, and a lot of people will think that you're still kind of wasting your time or you're working on a pet project or whatever, but you're not.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Because the minute you get that version one working, and you've gotten version one working, Tucker has, Ezra Kelly has kind of, but he should really leave the New York Times and do it on his own.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
what you are then allowed to do is work on version two. And version two is the first version of it that's like a real thing that can stand alone. And then four or five years later, you get to this version three, and that is just excellence, and that's when everybody else goes out of business. And I see this pattern in so many businesses. It's going to happen in this creator economy.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
So you, Mr. Beast, us, Tucker, you know, we're on version one. It's very rough around the edges. People are figuring it out. We're all gonna make mistakes. But that version two, is when there's going to be this meaningful downtick in the New York Times, in the Washington Post, in the Wall Street Journal. By the way, I said this, I had probably 15 media subscriptions.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
I'm down to one, which is the Wall Street Journal. And I'm looking for every reason to just dump it. And for me, it's the anxiety of there's probably some financial news that I will miss and I won't really get on X or with the other places. But the minute I feel like I can, I will.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Version 2 has to solve a much bigger problem, though, which is in once we're all out there making opinions, the other problem that it will highlight is that the algorithms are brittle. And we're going to have to figure out, well, how is our information getting in front of the right people? And how do we make sure that it's not just a bunch of million echo chambers so that we become fragmented?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
That's not solved because right now we go into a centralized algorithm, right? Everything goes into one version inside of Meta or inside of X or inside of Google. And Jason's talked about this before, which is this idea like there should be a marketplace and a competition. for these algorithms as well. That's the next part of fixing the media cycle.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Because some people may literally want to just stay in a partisan bubble, but some people want the media diet to be balanced. How do you get that? Today, it's impossible.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
This is where Jason just embarrasses himself. He starts off so strong. I have ideas for Megyn. If you have to graph your performance on this show, it starts off so high and then it just crashes.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
It really is a Valentine's Day celebration. By the way, guys, just to clean up on this, there's an incredible paper published by TikTok, the engineers at TikTok. about how they do personalization and their algorithm. And this is what made me think about this, which is why don't I have the choice to opt into it?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Now, the interesting thing that they do that nobody else does is no matter what your content preferences are, they will always seed you with something that's a little bit off topic slash off brand slash off interest because they're always trying to get this more visceral reaction to do you engage in it or not. And it's just an insight to me that even if you are one way,
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
The most valuable algorithms that we all need to make content on top of need to get that right, which is how do you expose it? Even if you're exposing it to someone that just viscerally disagrees, but it just makes the content more valuable and it makes the service better. And I think that that's like the next big turn. That's the version two of that Raptor engine that we all need to get right.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
My wife and I went down the rabbit hole of the Blake Lively, Justin Baldoni thing. It's a good rabbit hole. We lived inside of your clips for a while. Those were living rent-free in our head.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Did you guys watch? Did you guys watch the movie? Did you guys like the movie? I did not watch the movie.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
No. And I think he said the quiet part out loud and you weren't allowed to say it because it was, you know, almost like some it was like a virtue signaling test. You know, you have to maintain this line, even though everybody behind the scenes already knew, to your point, the answer. I mean, the the crazy thing about Russia, Ukraine is a couple of things.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
One is it pulled us into a situation where the Europeans really should have been taking the lead, and instead we had to have the opinion. Then we became the major funder. It turns out we sent $200-plus billion, of which at least $100 billion has gotten completely misplaced, which is unbelievable. Um, and it just goes to show you that you can't even have a conversation about what's right or wrong.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
And so now, you know, do we need to audit what happened over there? Probably. Do we need a resolution? Yeah, instantly. And I would rather us be able to take our mental energy and focus it internally. And I think that we, we weren't allowed to say that to your point. When I said that it was really more in the context of China and China.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
some of the things that are going on in China, but it also applied to Ukraine and applied to many things. And people tried to cancel me. And I thought, wow, this is crazy. And now it looks like most Americans, I think to your point, believe that the right thing to do is just to focus internally and get our house in order.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Give us our money back. The long tail of that conflict, though, guys, is going to play out over many decades in Europe. I think that the question is, well, can Europe change the playbook? Meaning? in the middle of that conflict to basically just torpedo their ability to actually import energy, to then still continue down the path of turning off domestic nuclear.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
France was the only one that basically said, this is crazy, I'm not going to do it. And then have to import all this energy from all over the world at all these exorbitant prices. At the same time, the economy is very fragile. The European continent is in a lot of trouble and these last three or four years have actually added a lot of fuel to the fire.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
So I think smart people need to have a better opportunity to just be smart in public and then have the public be able to absorb that and actually make decisions. That's why these things are nuts. What's happened is crazy.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
I think so. I think he has to basically set this agenda very, very clearly. Europeans are going to be at the forefront of this next phase of very difficult decision making. I'll give you one example.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
The amount of rules and regulations that they make around climate change and the impact that it has economically all over the world, including domestically in their own countries, how are they going to deal with that now that we have to recognize nothing the Europeans do actually has a meaningful impact on climate? Whether you agree with it or not agree with it, it's irrelevant.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
You need to look at China and India. That's where the whole game is played. So if you can't say that inside of Europe, inside of the borders of Europe, how will you ever change the rules? That's an example. A second example, there is not a single company that's getting started today that has a desire to locate an office directly inside of the UK or Europe. Why?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Because the regulatory framework will now come and really go after you if they don't like a single thing that you're doing. So what now happens to the European economy? They get deprived of their chance of having some small modicum of technological supremacy. What do you think happens to those economies?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
So if you add all of these things up, it all goes back to the root cause that JD's identifying. If you can't say it, You can't fix it. And so they have to decide what page they're on.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
This is he's completely right. I'll give you an example of this. You know, I've I've been to 10 Downing a couple of times in the last four or five years. With all of the relationships that I've tried to build in Europe and in the UK, I think Greta Thunberg has met with more of the leaders there than I have multiplied by like 10. Now, that's fine and good for Greta Thunberg, but...
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
I think the point is that there is just this incredible animated energy to wrap yourself around these moral ideals without questioning whether they were legitimate. And I don't exactly know why it happened or where it came from. But J.D. 's right. If you you need at some point, you just got to rip the bandaid off and course correct. And I think Europe's at that moment. America is at that moment.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
We're clearly doing it. And you can tell that they are just so viscerally concerned and it really pushes against the grain of 20 or 30 years of embedded behavior. But I think Europeans are capable of it. They just need to figure out that it's existential as well for them.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Right.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Guys, where's the balance between free speech and platforming and deplatforming then?
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
All right.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Welcome to the program.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
Take it easy. Take it easy. Would you just relax? Just relax. Sorry, Megan. Sorry, Megan.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
You know, it's incredible because Jason never gets to talk this much on our own podcast. So I understand now why he's just frothing at the mouth. But I was going to tell you a little story, which is I dropped my kids off today, my wife and I. And it reminds me that in grade school, you know how you used to treat the person you had a secret crush on the worst? That's Jason's relationship with DJT.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
So I just think that at some point what's happened is Jason has finally realized that he actually secretly admires him so much. And now he doesn't know what to do. So now he's just going for it because now he's got cover where most people with a rational brain have said, oh, give this guy a chance.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
He spent all his time with you guys. Purple. Full red-pill. Well, you know, you said something really important at the beginning, which is you used the word MAGA 2.0, and I actually think that that's the right observation. MAGA 2.0 is a very different coalition than MAGA 1.0, which explains, I think, why they did so well at the polls. And the way that I describe it in my own framework
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
is MAGA 2.0 are the working and middle class people that are asset light. And I think that that is important, meaning there's a lot of people that aren't getting stock options, that don't work at a startup, that don't necessarily own a home and are still renting, that don't have these overflowing 401ks. And that's a lot of where the tension with the American economy and society comes from.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
So I think MAGA speaks to them. I think they now speak to patriotic business owners, and they also were able to get these tech leaders and innovators. That's a really unique coalition. And I think that that is very discombobulating for the Democrats. And I think it explains a little bit why they're on their heels and a little confused and don't exactly know how to react in any moment.
The Megyn Kelly Show
Power of Trump 2.0, Why Elon and DOGE are Working, and Independent Media's Impact, with Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya of All-In | Ep. 1008
But that MAGA 2.0 coalition, if it holds, I think is multi-generationally, uh, relevant.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think there are people that may not... talk about it, but I think that they've lived it. I know Elon's lived it, where he's always underwritten things based on... The great thing about being in Silicon Valley is that there are people that I have the honor and the luck of knowing, like him, But I didn't really try to learn from him until 2022, if that makes sense.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Meaning, there were all these decisions that he made that I would reductively reduce to, that's a smart business decision. And it had nothing to do with business. He was always leading from, what are my core moral beliefs and let me act on those. Like the money never mattered. He never did anything to live that experience. He loves his friends. He loves his family.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It took me a decade of knowing him until I started to listen to that and to really hone in on that. So he's an example. Then there are folks that are a little bit older that have gone through it. My father-in-law has gone through it, ups and downs and ups and downs, and he's built an incredible business.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And he's had to face tremendous hardship where he's had to underwrite, well, what is really important? Am I an honorable person? You know, is my word my bond? When you shake my hand and we do a deal, it is what it is.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, if I can, you know, make X, but it's way too much, and if I can make half as X, but it's more, makes my, he makes drugs, you know, life signs of drugs, make them more accessible, should I do? He makes those decisions. And so you live, you see his morality play out in his actions. So I think now I have three or four people in my life, but I had to listen.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And before I chose not to listen because my ego said, hey man, you're the best.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The upside, I think, is that you can... Start to really focus on things that you care about. The downside is if you don't know what those things that you care about really are, you're going to waste a lot of time.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, I bought a piece of the Warriors. That was really cool. I was like a 10% owner of the Warriors. I had a press release from the NBA. And there was like two players on the team at the time that were older than me. That's pretty weird. And I made some amazing friendships with them. When we won the championships, you know, we would go to Vegas. We would kind of like party together.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Don't get me wrong, like an incredible experience, especially for, you know, an ugly nerd that had no social life. Do you know what I mean? So I took advantage of that because... It's like filling a jug of water, right? That jug had always been empty. I was never invited out, right? So, okay, I thought, now I'm invited out. Obviously, it's because, you know, the position.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's not like, you know, we grew up together or whatever. But I would get invited out. Okay, so every now and then, maybe more often than not, I'd just pay for the dinner. Whatever, it doesn't matter. I'm out. I'm in the mix. I'm in the game. But then the jug fills up. And then you're like, wait a minute.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Because you think like when the jug is two-thirds full, oh, don't worry, it's that extra third that's just going to fix it all. It's true. So you just go through these cycles. So, I mean, that was a cool thing. You go after material possessions. That doesn't do anything.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You could put it on a map, March of 2022, I'll never forget it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's these are all very hollowing things. I think like the thing that, like I said, like, you know, the problem with things like social media, what they do is they glorify these things. We all fall for it. I fell for it. So if when you have money, you go and you buy these things because you think this is what happiness looks like or, you know, success looks like.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And it's not it's none of that stuff. Now, nobody listening to this. will believe it because they all everybody wants to live that over and over because it's not like a very destructive life lesson. You know what I mean? Like to have like a Laura Piana sweater and not need it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But But the bigger message is more important, which is, if you have a sense of what's important, you can kind of see the things that are really happening in a much more
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
um they're more in focus so like you know i would say like now that i'm 48 i'm much more aware of like what does it mean to be an american what is my job as an american businessman as an engineer as an entrepreneur it's not all of this other superficial garbage because it adds nothing
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's to actually allow the system that rewarded and benefited me to be just a little bit better in terms of the contributions I give to it before I'm no longer part of the system in 50 or 60 years. That's very motivating for me now. And this idea that my kids can go and join Team America and do cool stuff and find happiness, find a great husband, find a great wife, have a bunch of kids,
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
and live a good life and know what their dad went through and have a better sense of that. That seems like an additive thing I can add to the system to be a good example for my friends when they start to go through their own struggles. that they can kind of course correct a little bit faster than I did. You know, I mean, I went through a divorce, right? So that's a terrible thing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, after all that, I went through a divorce. You know, I was very lucky to find my wife. But my point is that my first marriage, when you get a divorce, that's a death in the family.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Literally a death. And then you are complicit in the commission of that death. You know, it's the husband and the wife. I mean, there are only two people responsible. That's right. And so I see a bunch of my friends who are, you can see some veering and teetering. And now I can sort of intervene a little bit and just kind of cajole and nudge and, you know, help them.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I'm not saying that these are all really grand, highfalutin things, but they actually address the inner part of what I needed for a very long time. I just didn't realize it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
then, frankly, most everything, especially when you think of how it compounds to that husband and wife's children. Oh, yeah. It's the key thing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Exactly.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's not clear to me how connected they are, but the first part of what you said I do agree with, which is that we have silently allowed this insidious war machine to take over large parts of the government. Yes. And what's so interesting about this is that it actually, I would have said, was more riddled inside the Republican Party. Yes.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's an emptiness somewhere else. It's a jug that they're trying to fill. And they think that the closer they get to filling it, the problem is like your mind just switches the jug to an even bigger jug. And then it gets closer to being full and then it switches again and it switches again. I think the much better way to think about this problem is,
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
is what am I doing with my time that actually helps the place that gave me an opportunity be better and the people that live beside me be better. That is a really morally valuable statement. And then you can kind of like look at all the things and all the problems that make everybody mad in the United States as an opportunity to actually do them better. And that is useful.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And when you have money, the one thing that you can do is you can accelerate that change much faster than folks that have to take a much more arduous path. For sure. And I think we've lost that. There's not enough people that basically say, okay, you know what? The United States has given me so much. Now, how do I give back, quote unquote?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And you don't necessarily have to give back by going into nonprofit or going into government. You can just acknowledge the problems that are there and go fix them. And you can fix them by starting for-profit companies, which are always the best way. And I wonder like, why don't more people do it?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think that that is, I think that what's happened. So I'll give you my framework. You can tell me maybe where you agree or disagree, but. It is important for all 330 million Americans to take a step back and acknowledge this one truth. And I think that it is completely a canonical statement that is inviolate for being an American.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We are the single most important country in existence in the world. We are the most important country today. We must be the most important country tomorrow, period. If you say that enough times and you believe it, then there are two things that underpin that, and I think only two. We are the single most vibrant economy in the world, and we are the single strongest military in the world.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And if you can agree to those two things, which I think should be non-controversial, if you say, meaning, like if I said to you, hey, Tucker, we make the best oranges and burritos in America. that does not yield the most important country in the world. If I said we make the best shoes and the best flat panel TVs, that does not equate to the most powerful country in the world.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But if I said to you, we have the strongest and most vibrant economy and the strongest and most powerful military, that is the strongest and most important country in the world. And then there is only one thing that gives you both of those two things, which is technological supremacy. So go back to these examples.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But it turns out over these last few years, especially since this MAGA takeover, this hostile takeover that Donald Trump effected, which I think is enormously important in historical context. But it's more within the Democratic Party now. There are these neocon warmongers that want to connect the dots between people suffering and their own economic opportunity. And I think that that's very scary.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
If I said to you, we write the best books, those books could be incredibly powerful, but it does not give you technical supremacy. If I said to you that we have the most abundant energy, oil fields, nat gas, it's important, but it does not give us technological supremacy. Those that get there will be in a position to create the most vibrant economy.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
They'll take that money and then create the most powerful military. They'll put those two things together. They'll be the most powerful country. So I think today, sitting here, January of 2025, we are in an existential risk of losing our place in the world.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And the reason is that we had people, we have people from the inside trying to sabotage our economy effectively and trying to sabotage our military capability. And they do that not explicitly, but they do that because they are in positions of leadership and they fundamentally don't know what they're doing. And this is what needs to get called out.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I think what we need is this wholesale reform of the people that are at the levers and in the controls of these things. The lack of economic judgment, the lack of military judgment is ruining America's ability to be the most important country in the world. We are, in Silicon Valley, I think it's fair to say that we have had a lost decade.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And when you look underneath why, what are the two most or three most or four most incredible technological achievements that the Silicon Valley has created in the last decade. You're hard pressed to find it. So in one example, you have Elon. He's created reusable rocketry. He's created an entire global mesh of communications infrastructure. He's created electric cars. That's an incredible thing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And he's done that with one hand tied behind his back, meaning fighting the government, local, state, federal, at every single turn over the last 10 or 15 years. What have the rest of us done? We've created AirPods and Instagram Reels. Why? I think a lot of people fell into the same lull that I fell into. We had people pushing back constantly, we got distracted, we wasted time.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, we took an entire cadre like, like, like, look, engineering is actually very much like professional sports, Tucker, like there are Michael Jordan's in engineering. Okay. And there are many people that are not very close to Michael Jordan, you know, couldn't even make a JV scrub team.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There is that crazy distribution of capability. And let's just say in Silicon Valley, there's 5 million engineers. If you add up all the companies and all the people, maybe that's a lot, but I don't know. I can tell you that there's at least 25 or 50,000 of them that are like Michael Jordan-esque capable. And instead, what we told these people is, hey, don't win six championships in eight years.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Don't be the most prolific player ever. What we told them to do was like, hey, you can dribble down the court, but don't dribble too fast because you'll make these other people feel bad. Hey, you know what?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You can do a couple of layups, but don't do too many layups because you should actually pass the ball so that these other people we hired because the team photo looks better, you know, give them a chance to score. You did all of these dumb things. Then team management would come down and say, you know what? I actually think the goal should be to play wiffle ball.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then you take Michael Jordan off the basketball court and you make him play wiffle ball. That's what Silicon Valley did. We took all this incredible talent. We got distracted by the money, right? Because what really did happen in the Valley? What did happen is all the billionaires became deca billionaires and centi billionaires, right? The wealth went through the roof.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The innovation went through the floor. So we got lulled into this economic complacency. My gosh, I'm so much smarter because I'm so much richer. No, you're not. No, you're not. I'll give you a different example.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But I think that there was some sabotage, meaning... or maybe sabotage is not the right word, but there were traps that were laid out and we all fell in them. The DEI trap, the woke trap, all this kind of stuff that were distractions to core innovation. I'll give you two examples that paint the picture. I'll bookend it. I'll give you a Silicon Valley bookend.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I think that whenever you see that, you have to push against that. Humans... should not be at war we should not be fighting and killing each other it's just a simple foundational moral principle that i think we all have to live by you just cannot go there and um you have to push back on every avenue of people that try to take you there i couldn't agree more
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The beginning of the bookend is in the early 2000s. There's an incredible professor, Jennifer Doudna in Berkeley, and she pioneers CRISPR, which is the ability to edit genes. Let's take that off the table whether you think it's morally right or wrong for a second, okay? It could be a tool. It could be a weapon. I grant that.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But it is undeniably a tool that sits in the toolbox that we call technological supremacy. Over the next decade, what Silicon Valley managed to do was embroil themselves in IP lawsuits about who actually owned it. What China did was take the open source awareness of it and pioneer it. Was that smart?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Whether you agree or you disagree, should that toolbox be in our toolbox where we can meet it out? Or should it be in China's toolbox where they can decide?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Where if all of a sudden there is some disease in the future and it requires this very precise form of gene editing and only they can do it, and now a state-sponsored entity in China is the one that provisions a cure for 8 billion humans around the world, that will give them tremendous economic power. Was that is that smart? For America to have done that? I think not.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I'll give you a different example, which is just today as you and I sit here. President Biden issued an EO. And what the EO said is executive order. AI is going to be critical. And so we want to give the ability for federal lands to be used for AI data centers. Okay, now you're cooking. This sounds smart. Let's go read the fine print.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And by the second or third paragraph, what it says is, however, we need to think about the diversity and equity inclusions of said data centers. And, no, hold on. And you have to basically give preference to clean power. Well, is that the same clean power that was essentially made impossible because of permitting issues and environmental impact studies?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You can't just build solar farms that you want to. You can't build wind farms in America if you want to. You can't build nuclear reactors because they won't let you. These are not technological limitations. These were regulatory limitations. Those are just two examples that just show you. You cannot do what's in America's best interest right now because people have forgot. They've lost the script.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
They forgot the priorities. Guys, the priorities are we need to remain the most singularly powerful economic and military entity in the world. The way you do that is through technical supremacy, period. I'll give you another two examples just to, you can tell me if these are boring, but. No, no. Saudi Arabia is doing an incredible job. Why? They're monetizing their oil.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
They are doing very strategic things with the capital. What they've decided is they're going to allocate money that they take from selling oil to build a global data center infrastructure for AI. That's really smart. And when you look at Saudi Arabia on a map, you think, oh my gosh, this is very smart. Why? Because they sit right in this artery between Asia, Europe, and Africa.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
This is critically smart. But what is the one thing that they need that they don't have? It's AI chips. Now, AI, just to break it down for your viewers, think of AI as two buckets. Okay, bucket number one is where you train the brain. Okay? Think of AI as a brain. Bucket number one, you train the brain. Bucket number two, you use the brain to make decisions. Okay?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The chips that we make to train the brain are under export control. Right? We don't want folks to train their own brains necessarily unless we can govern them. That's a Department of Commerce decision on export licensing. The way that we use the brain is a different kind of chip, and we have some export controls there. What will Saudi eventually be forced to do? They're an ally of America.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
They want to do the right thing, but they have a responsibility to their people to try to become the most incredible economic and military power in the world. They're going to go and buy the chips from the people that will actually sell it to them. They'll look east, of course. They will look east and they'll find it in China. Yet a different example.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
If you look at Meta, Meta has poured tens of billions of dollars to training a brain, an AI brain that's called Lama. That's Meta's efforts in AI. And it's open source. It's wonderful, actually. My companies use it. It works. It's high quality.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
OpenAI, which is the private closed sourced competitor to Meta and Llama, also has an AI brain that they've trained, you know, GPT, ChatGPT, you've used it probably. They've also spent tens of billions of dollars, in part coming from Microsoft. Meanwhile, In December, a Chinese company open sourced a model where they spent tens of millions of dollars.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And in many cases, that digital brain is smarter than both meta and open AIs on many dimensions. So two orders of magnitude cheaper. Well, what do you think that means for the other 182 countries around the world that wants to do something in AI? Are they going to take the $10 billion version or are they going to take the $10 million version? They're going to take the $10 million one.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And when you unpack, well, why did it cost $10 billion?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It costs $10 billion because of all the roadblocks that we put in front of companies to make the things that we need to maintain our technical supremacy. So I'll give you some examples. So for example, one of the things that China chooses to not do is they don't really respect copyright law.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Now, I'm not saying we should violate copyright law, but I think it's important to acknowledge that there is a... technical overhang that it creates in training these brains to try to filter out content that the New York Times tags or Fox News tags and says, don't learn on this. You're not allowed unless you have a deal with me. That creates an enormous layer of expense.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Because I had to take a step back and actually figure out how much of this was actually me and my preparation and my process or my dark passenger. And here's what I mean by this, because I thought about this a lot. I think we all have a dark passenger. So when you are born, you're kind of like this... body that has the capability to do anything.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
How do we judge that issue? Today, if you ask somebody, It's a pretty simple conversation. It's not nuanced. It's do you believe in copyright or do you not believe in copyright? I think it's a much more nuanced question.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
For the sake of training these digital brains, if there was an economic relationship that we could create, isn't it better that our digital brain is smarter than these other ones and that we make it as cheap as possible? If you ask that question, a lot of people would say, gosh, that's a nuanced question.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's neither an easy no or an easy yes, but on the margins, I would say yes, knowing that there are these impacts. I'll give you a different example. It takes all this energy to build the data centers. Why does it cost so much? Let's just say you wanted to use solar panels. Is it that the solar panels are expensive? No. Is it that the ability to do the interconnects are expensive? No.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's that building that facility had a multi-year environmental impact study, umpteen lawsuits, all kinds of indirection and misdirection from all of these independent actors who believed that they were pursuing their own priorities, and there was no release valve that said, I appreciate and respect the smelt that you're trying to protect or the land grouse. But this is bigger than that.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We need to make sure we maintain our technical superiority. That data center is going to be used by the NSA to protect America. So it needs to go up in nine months. No ifs, ands, or buts. Right now, we don't have the ability to say that. Or if we do, it's not clear who should say it. And so all of this time costs money. All of this complexity costs money.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And the output are practical costs of building these things that are just two orders of magnitude bigger than our competitors.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, you know, we talk about this, but we don't say it enough. But the genetic diversity of all humanity is minuscule. So that I think I interpret that as the capability of all humanity is pretty incredible. But you have this huge distribution of outcomes. And part of that are the things that happen to you as you're growing up, right? Your lived experience, right?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
2020 was like an incredibly prolific period for me. I'd wake up out of bed and I was doing deals and it was like I had the world in the palm of my hand, it felt like. I was moving markets every time I communicated publicly. That was incredibly dizzying and it had the exact opposite effect on me that it should have.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There is nothing that the Western countries can do that will equate in any way, shape, or form the impact of what China and India decides to do. We do not live in small bubbles. There is no glass bubble that sits on top of the United States. We all share an ecology. That ecology is extremely complicated and nuanced, and it's a global one.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And the reality is that India and China collectively together have way more impact than what you and I are going to do by becoming vegans.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I think the reason why, for example, like we have, again, so we have lost so much ground. The California wildfires are an example that lays us bare. We should have 50% of the American population on solar panels and battery walls today. The reason, it's nice to have that you do it for climate change, but the reason is resilience.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The reason is so that you can power yourself in moments of calamity. The reason is so that you can make sure that you can take care of your family, cook food, desalinate water, whatever it is that you need to do.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's just like the practical reality.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And instead we make it this sort of like moral blanket that you have to wrap yourself in. Everybody then takes a view and all it does is retard progress. So I guess what I'm saying is we spend way too much time getting distracted on fringe ideas and we need to recalibrate.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We need to be and we need to remain the most singular, muscular power in the world, which comes from economic and military supremacy, which comes from only one thing, technical supremacy. So you have to find a way of enabling those 50,000 Michael Jordans that exist in America to cook. Let them cook. That's what you need to do.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, of course. Sorry, this is my last one. One of the big pushes in AI is in robotics. And just to double-click into a robot, a robot moves through these things called actuators, okay? And one of the things that actuators needs, one of the ways that they generate mechanical motion, 3D planar mechanical motion, is through the use of magnets, permanent magnets.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And permanent magnets are different than the ones you and I play with or what our kids play with. They are made from these things called rare earth metals.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And rare earths are a misnomer. They are not rare, but they are abundantly available in the earth. There is an incredible supply of rare earths in California. You could not for the life of you get a permit in California, no matter how clean, how green, to mine those materials to make sure that we could make magnets so that we could make the robots so that we maintained our technical supremacy.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's the nature part, not the nurture necessarily. And nature gives some people a very dark passenger, right? Some of them will then commit crimes. Some of them will become murderers. Some of them will become drug addicts. Some of them, you know, will... have this litany of things happen to them.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That's how that decision, I think, should get made. We want technical supremacy in the next five to 10 years. There's going to be a huge wave in robotics. America needs to be at the forefront. America needs to make them. We need to understand how to program them. Our robots need to be smarter. So there's an AI track, right? There's a mechanical engineering track.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Okay, well, there's a mining track. Let's get the materials. Let's make sure that we are beholden to nobody. so that we can make them. By the way, these are all great paying jobs if you are able to actually get them permitted. And when push comes to shove, when it's like, yeah, get the rare earths out of the ground and make the permanent magnets, can't do it. Why?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You're going to spend 13 years in permitting hell in California to try to get that done? So and I know this, the reason I know this is that I started a business to make sure that China does not have access to the only supply of rare earths. And I initially tried to do it in California, impossible.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I invested in one business that actually had an old mine that we were able to get back online through a bankruptcy process and blah, blah, blah, but it's not nearly enough. So I went to India and I was able to get a deal done with the Indian government
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And what they were able to see was the strategic rationale of making sure we had access to not only the rare earths, but to also to make sure that there were subsidies so that they would compete on the global stage cheaper than China. And now I can bring them back into the United States to make these magnets. Would I like to do that in America? Yes. Can I? Impossible.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I'd be sitting around twiddling my thumbs for a decade. The guys in India did that deal with me in less than 18 months. They understand. There's an escalation point where they'll sit down and say, Chamath, what do you need? What makes sense? And I say, well, sir, here's what we're trying to do. Here's why it's important.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Here's why having a global supply chain that's independent of China is just important. It's competitive. It's good for everybody. They're like, okay, great. X, Y, and Z. Do the following three things. Build a plant over there. We'll make sure that we support you. Here, we're just going to a morass and die.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yes, yes. So the other crazy thing about that Biden EO is why couldn't you have just stopped the EO at that first paragraph?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We're in charge. We have more nat gas and oil in the United States. I don't know if you saw this, Tucker, but there was a piece of data that came out this week, but our reliance on foreign oil is almost entirely gone. Oh, yeah. Meaning like almost like to where we don't even need to buy it anymore. Not just that we make more than we import, but where the imports will soon go to zero.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
In my case, my lived experience gave me this thing where I have always battled this insecurity that I've just felt I'm basically worthless. You're a kid, you come here, you don't really fit in. You try to kind of make... a social life out of everything else that you're supposed to do doesn't really work, right? And so that creates a chip on my shoulder.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That's an incredible statement about the energy independence of America. It's the single most obvious way to, by the way, to guarantee peace.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
If you're not fighting over that critical resource, it's going to be very unlikely you're going to go to war, which if you look past the last four or five wars, the trillions of dollars and the hundreds of thousands of American lives, what were they all about? Oil. And now we have the ability to power those data centers. So should data centers be built in a fair, predictable way on federal land?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, because it feeds the technical supremacy we all need. Now, by the way, there is a conversation to be had as, okay, great, when you have all this economic abundance, how do you share it more? I get that. But at least you're in a position to have the conversation.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So back to this though, but like, you know, if you're able to build these things, I think what Biden should have done is just say, hey, listen, folks, do your best, get the energy because it exists, use nat gas, use oil, and we will figure it out after we've won. That feels like leadership.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But it's not rooted in any reality.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's just... It's rooted in moral grandstanding.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's incredible that you mentioned air conditioning. So back to one of these ways where I was like, after 2022, how can I just get back to basics and do the things that I do well? One of the projects that I started with this incredible mechanical engineer was we set out to rebuild the air conditioner.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And when you look at air conditioners, the heat transfer mechanisms can be made much, much more efficient. And you don't have to use this horrible coolants. And so we have... a working version now, it's like our second prototype. We're probably two years away from getting something working. But when that works, by the way, we've started a process to figure out how do we sell it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But this is again, Tucker, it's like, if I tried to sell it to a home, the number of people that want to touch that thing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It will take me an extra $150 million and an extra, extra 150. It'll take 100, 150 million to build it. It'll take an extra $150 million and an extra seven years.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah. What is it that I'm supposed to do?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I don't think those rules were passed by people even to give them the benefit of the doubt. By one degree removed, folks that even have an understanding of physics.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So there was probably a very smart, capable lawyer representing some smart organization who knew that this was something that they could write in to slow people down. But what people need to understand is it, again, it just slows down our ability to remain number one.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I don't think that they want to wreck the country as much as I think that they have lost the global context. I don't think they understand that we are in an existential risk of no longer being number one. And I think that they also don't understand the implications if we are not number one. You need to just look at the UK.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And it was this sort of thing where I always felt I was on the outside looking in. And then when I, you know, worked at Facebook and then left, and all of a sudden in my early 30s, I had, you know, more success and more money, to be honest, than I ever thought I would have. I spent a lot of time, a decade basically, feeding that insecurity, buying things, accumulating things.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
If you want to have a very simple and visible picture of a white Anglo-Saxon Protestant nation completely losing itself, totally losing the economic war, losing the military war, losing the technology war, and fighting a fringe issue war, you need to just look there. And people should ask themselves, is that what we aspire to?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's so much worse. You're much better off, to your point, being in a developing nation on the come up than you are being in a... 100%.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So the thing that we need to do, I think, as a Western set of nations is we need to understand and agree on the fact that governance over this last decade has totally and miserably failed by focusing on these fringe issues and by losing sight of these global priorities. I'll give you a different example.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
At the end of the global financial crisis, Canada emerged as the healthiest G7 country out of all of us. They were doing phenomenally well, low debt to GDP, phenomenal growth. And then over those intervening 17 years, they focused on all kinds of fringe issues, rampant open immigration, poor allocation of risk capital inside of Canada.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
They've allowed this incredible flight of human capital to the United States. And now today, if Canada were to join, the United States, it would be poorer than Alabama on a per capita basis.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So what has happened in Canada?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, my dad passed away 10 years ago. My mom now comes to see us. So I rarely go back. Actually, I'm going to be back in February for a little bit. I've always felt like a fish out of water in Canada. I've loved it for many reasons. I think that it had had some principles back then that I think are very legitimate and I think should exist in the United States.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The most important being a capped cost of higher education. I spent $12,000 a year to get an electrical engineering degree from a place called the University of Waterloo, which globally is as good, frankly, better than MIT. If I had to be in the United States and if I had gotten into MIT, which I probably would not have, but had I been able to, I'd be $100,000 or $200,000 in debt.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so had I not had this lottery ticket for me pay off with an IPO and working at Facebook, I don't know where I would be today. That's crazy. So there are things that Canada, I think, and we should acknowledge that does really right. That is probably the most important thing that it does right.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I think the idea of a state-sponsored healthcare system, it's implemented horribly poorly, but there are elements of that where I think, especially around sort of capped costs, which I think are important, meaning, you know, in the United States, a healthcare CEO was telling me, when you look inside of an EMR system, the electronic medical care system, let's say, Tucker, you're a doctor and you did a knee surgery, you would have a hundred different prices attached to you.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And to be honest with you, if I'm being really honest with myself, look, I built a really successful investment business by all numerical accounts, but I would say for me, it was a lost decade. I didn't do anything. And I got to a point in 2022 where all of that stuff, so much of it, had to be stripped away and I had to look at what was left and rebuild from fundamentals. I had an incredible wife.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
depending on the plan, depending on the insurer. That's dumb. You are one person. Those are one set of hands. That's one surgery. It's one quality. The idea that one person is lucky enough to pay $1,000 deductible and the other person has to pay 50,000 is an egregious market failure. It's just egregious.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So Tucker Carlson, the best knee surgeon in America, if he charges 2,000, then he charges 2,000 for everybody. That seems fair.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yes, I think that— you need to have competition. I think you need to have there's a hybrid that the United States could implement that is not NHS or the Canadian system. But it's not just a pure free market free for all. It's a little bit in between. And let me describe what the in between parts are. Medicare is an incredibly important insurance program in the United States.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think it stands to reason that Medicare should have its own PBM. If Medicare was able to negotiate an extremely aggressive price for drugs, it sets the boundary for what is allowable for everybody else. And for folks that are 65 and older, then now they have a very viable alternative to use that. It also creates transparency around the variation in pricing, number one.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Number two, there needs to be a way where a private insurer can build up some credit for doing things today that may only pay off for that employee in the future when he's no longer an employee. So for example, you worked at Fox.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
should the Fox Insurance program have put you on a statin, I'm making this up, have put you on a statin in your early 40s to help you manage your, I'm not saying you have rising cholesterol, but if you had that, because in 10 or 15 years from now, it would help a potential cardiac arrest or heart attack.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
A lot of the companies that are faced with this decision today say, we're not going to do that because you may not be an employee in 15 years, so why am I paying now for something where I get the benefit then? But that's a simple healthcare economics market solution. We should have those.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We should give private insurers incentives to, you know, in some cases, maybe the right thing to do is to put people on Ozempic and Munjarro. Do the work now. I understand that that employee may be retired by the time that they may need that, but it was the right thing to do for that person for having worked for you for 15 or 20 years.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Another thing, with AI today, you can read all of these insurance plans And you should have a standard way of knowing that a condition is going to get approved or not before it starts. And that needs to be auditable. It cannot be where you need like a PhD and five different people to read these insurance plans, and then all of a sudden, a random person can make an economic decision to say no.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That's also where simple technology can get built to build very strict guardrails. What is approved? What is not approved? Have it be known, have it be auditable, be in a log so that people can just simply escalate. Hey, that person got his approved and mine was dinged. Why? So there's all these little things to make the system better. It needs to be more open.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You need to have, for example, a different case of open. It is highly unlikely that you've ever tried to get all of your healthcare data. Impossible. Now, you would say, Chamath, why would I need that? Well, maybe there's an AI agent that can actually be your doctor in your pocket that just works for Tucker.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, it's the person that is constantly reading my every interaction with the healthcare system to tell me what they think. It's my own second opinion. That's not a bad idea. That's a very low cost thing to do, except you can't get the data. Why can't you get the data? Because there's federal regulations and most people don't listen to them.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
What a blessing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I had incredible kids. What a blessing. Five. Five incredible kids. That's amazing. No, Tucker, it's amazing. Having kids is amazing. I had incredible friends. I have a Thursday night poker game that I will, frankly, no matter where I am in the world, I will go out of my way, planes, trains, and automobiles to fly back for because of what that game gives me with my friends.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Federal regulations, TEFCA says, you have to be able to download your data. These companies make it very hard because they know the more open it becomes, it induces competition. Competition that will show up will probably be infinitely better. So I'm going to do everything I can to block it. And, you know, the federal and state governments don't do enough.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I start companies. But when I don't see something that I think I can start right away and there's somebody that's a little bit in the lead, I'll just invest and I'll just take a large piece so that I can help guide them. One of those businesses where I'm the largest shareholder has been working on breast cancer surgery.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And today across America, for every 10 women that go and get diagnosed with breast cancer, three of the surgeries leave cancer behind.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And the way that it works is you go in for what's called, so there's two different kinds of breast cancer surgery. There's a lumpectomy, which is take out the lump, or a mastectomy, which is take out the entire breast.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And in the lumpectomy, you have to have, you visualize with your own eyes, whether you think most of the cancer is gone, you close up the woman and you take that sample, you give it to a pathologist, and typically between seven and 11 days, which is how long it takes because they're clogged up and there's backlog, they'll look under a microscope and visually inspect and say, actually, sorry, 30% of the time they say you left some cancer behind.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So now those three women have to go back. They get another surgery. But again, 30% error rate. They do it again. And then one of those women gets dinged. So now one woman has had three breast cancer surgeries. That is happening today. Now, if you go to a really, really good teaching hospital, that error rate will be 5% because the docs are incredible.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
If you go to an overly zealous doctor, that error rate will also be low, but you'll come in for a lumpectomy, you'll end up with a mastectomy kind of a thing. They'll just take out so much of that, and that creates a disfiguration. So this company basically says, hold on a second, I'll just use AI. I'll look right down to the granular microscopic level. I'll take an extremely high res picture.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I have these little things. Where's the game? In my house. Really? Yeah. And it's great too, because by the way, like, you know, players also poker. So in Silicon Valley, there's like a group of us, like some well-known folks that we all get together. And my wife was the one that did this. She, when she first looked at the game, you'd see all these people and it was really interesting.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
My brain will be trained on only this one task. Is there cancer or is there no cancer? So we built it and it's in a bunch of the leading hospitals in America, but we had to file with the FDA to be allowed to tell the doctor. So I just want to be clear, we know, we can see it. And so we ran an 18 month trial, cost us 10 or 15 million bucks. And we met our endpoint in November.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We can now absolutely be sure that the cancer was removed or not removed. Now we have to package all of that up. We filed it with the FDA. We've been told we'll get approval by June and then we'll be able to sell, meaning sell the software upgrade.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So that essentially in the operating room, instead of having to wait for the pathologist seven to 11 days later, the doctor will do the lumpectomy, put it in the machine, and instantly you'll say, Tucker, you need to take out a little bit more. The margins are not right. Tucker, perfect job. Close her up. That's using AI.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah. Wow. That is using AI, and that can get breast cancer surgeries to be so prolifically good that the error rate goes to zero. The impact on the quality of life of those women, and then by extension, their families, their kids that have to deal with that stress as well, can go away. So that's a profound impact of AI that you're gonna see in the next year.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We could quibble that this should have been faster, could have cost a lot less money. Meaning it cost me the same amount of money to get this trial done as it cost that Chinese company to build a digital brain that's as good as OpenAI or Facebook. That's crazy. But whatever. Okay, put a pin in it. We did it. We'll file. And we'll move forward.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, we play the rules that are on the field, even if the rules make no sense. And it's hard to tell anybody to change the rules, but it is what it is. That's an example. Elon published some data yesterday, which is incredibly profound, which is he has an AI brain inside of the Tesla and the ability to drive safely on the highway became seven and a half X better than his previous version.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And his previous version was already 10 times better than a normal car, which means when you get on the highway, You engage FSD, it's called, his version of autopilot for the car. And it was already 10 times better. Now it's seven times better than that 10 times to not get into an accident.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So the idea about using AI now to just eliminate all the unnecessary deaths that happen because of traffic mishaps, there's the potential where that goes to zero. That's today as well. Again, his issue isn't technological. His issue is going to be regulatory. At what speed will people be able to be comfortable letting him take people from point A to point B?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But, you know, a lot of my friends have a touch of the tism. And so what happens is, you know, you just end up like looking down at your cards for eight hours straight. Nothing was happening. And she said, guys, this is ridiculous. You can play for a few hours, but at 7 p.m., we're going to break for dinner. We're going to sit around a table and we're all going to talk.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
In yet a different example, there are all of these small airplane companies, they're called eVTOL. So it's not a plane, not a helicopter, but it's kind of this hybrid thing in between. And they have this autopilot where it's like taking off in a no-pilot configuration, piloting it in the air, which is much simpler, by the way, than driving on the ground, and then landing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And you have the ability to now just create a level of transportation which increases GDP. And that is an AI brain that's calculating all the system variables around itself, being able to fly safely, getting from point A to point B. You don't have to drive seven hours. It's a 40 minute hop, skip and a jump now. So now go and do your job and come back. All of these things are happening right now.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We are gated on the regulatory machine which are unfortunately not filled with enough actual technologists. It's mostly bureaucrats teaching them, getting them comfortable that, you know, what do we intend with all of this? We intend of reversing this thought lost decade. We just want to get to work and build a thing so that America kicks ass.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I'll just say- He is an amazing human being. No, he really is. Like he is a guy- I agree. I had to teach Sax how to hug properly.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, Sax was a side hugger, which I can't.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's like, I'm not a side hugger.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You're going to give me a hug. And we've been, you know, really, really close friends for 20 years now. So I was like, bro, learn to hug. And we have all of these videos where like over the course of like four years, you know, I had to take his arm and
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
teach how you did video training oh yeah like i had to teach him how to put no with him and me you know his wife would take a video and it's like sax you got to put your arm this way and then he's like okay now you have to you know put your head over here he is he's a brilliant guy
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah. I mean, he taught me everything else, but I taught him how to hug.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And you must look at each other in the eyes. It was so funny. But it's become a ritual. And for all of us, we all feel seen. And then slowly what happens is people start to talk about things that they would have never talked about. And what you see is this repetitive pattern.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, I think it's made me much cooler for my older kids, my teenagers. You know, they use these words, which I just can't stand, but they're like, you know, if somebody comes up and says, hi, and we take a picture, they're like, dad, that was some good riz or whatever. They'll be like, yeah, that was, okay, good aura, Dad, good aura. And so we make fun of it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I will turn to them, and I'll be like, in the car, I'll be like, guys, shut up. They'll be making a lot of noise. They're like, why? And then I'll turn up, because I'm a very important podcaster. Yeah.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It actually started because our poker game, me, Sax, J. Cal, Freeberg, the four co-hosts, we were four of the kind of like the regular everyday players. When the COVID shelter in place happened, we weren't allowed to go out. And so we started to Zoom each other, and then we just started to record, and then we just threw it up on YouTube.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Because we would ask Freiburg to teach us about the disease and the science of it all. Then we would all take turns riffing on how frustrated we were at Newsom, and then we would kind of post it. And then it just took on a life of its own. And yeah, fast forward four years, I mean, we've done an episode a week. I think we got very lucky because it happened in a moment.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think you and Joe Rogan are two of the more leading examples of this, but the traditional media is totally dead. There was a stat today, the Washington Post's traffic in the last four years has gone from 20 and a half million viewers to three. Isn't that incredible? 20 and a half million monthly users to 3 million.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So the question is, in that vacuum, it's not as if the American population shrank. It's grown. What is the sense-making?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Or did news, yeah, exactly. More news is happening. So I think it's important to rebuild the sense-making. And I think we accidentally found ourselves making sense of things that are happening to people. Like, explain this technology thing. Explain this business thing. Explain this political thing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
People with this dark passenger, lots of insecurity, they achieve a lot, but all of that a lot is externally validated, but not internally felt. And so there's just this sense that there's an emptiness and people start to panic. I thought that XYZ would solve the problem. I thought the watches would solve the problem, the boat, the plane, the clothes, the chains. None of it solves it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Not necessarily so deeply, but connecting the dots so that you could have a slightly better worldview. Yeah. And I think that that's been helpful for people. It's been really fun for me.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, he is really incredible. You know, I didn't know what to expect. And then David and I threw a fundraiser for him. I mean, I think part of where all of this started was David called me in June. So actually taking a step back, he and I had always been active in politics. He was a, you know... died, he was a tried and true conservative from the beginning. I was a little bit more promiscuous.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I didn't really understand how to make my political beliefs fit into one of these vessels. But for the most part in the last few years, like everybody else, I got lulled into buying into a lot of the Democratic lines. And I was a large donor to the Democrats. And it all started to unravel for me in 2020, because I didn't understand COVID.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Then I got the vaccine, only to realize that it was not a vaccine. And I was really upset. A couple of my kids really struggled with what happened to them by not being able to go to school. And I was like, why hasn't the government intervened and gotten my kids back in school? All of these things just made me super frustrated. So I started to question, maybe I wasn't seeing things right.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And maybe I was reacting more with my ego. And the answer was, yeah, actually, the Democrats are extremely charming. And they can play a very sophisticated game where they make you feel exclusive. Oh, for sure. And that's part of the shtick of how they get money from you. I mean, I remember, and I would tell these stories as a point of pride. Now I tell it as a warning to myself.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I was sitting at dinner with Obama the day of Brexit. And you know that very famous kind of moment where, like, you know, Andrew Card passes that piece of paper to George Bush? Yes. There was a version of that moment, obviously much less important, but where somebody— Summer of 16.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, where somebody, like, passes a note to Obama, and he goes, oh, my—this was, like, we were in San Francisco, and it was, like, at 8 or 9 p.m., and he's like, oh, wow, the U.K. just voted to leave. Yeah. So I remember where I was that day. But those kinds of moments made me feel that maybe I was doing the right thing, right?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then all of my businesses just kept running up against these brick walls over and over and over again. Every time I tried to do something good that I thought was valuable, it would bump up against all of this stupid stuff. regulation and slowed back. And every time I looked at who they were, they were all supposedly on the same team that I was in.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I said, forget this, I have to start from first principles. So in 2023, and Sax and I decided we were going to start throwing fundraisers for a whole variety of candidates. So the first one was at his house. We threw a fundraiser for RFK. We got to meet Bobby. It was exhilarating. And for the first time, you had this person speaking truth to power.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Then at my house, we threw a fundraiser for Vivek. David and I did that together. And then David called me and said, let's do a fundraiser for Trump. And I said, absolutely. And I think that that started the- Did you check with your wife first? Yeah. That's quite a statement. She's very supportive. Yeah. You know, look, my wife, she's in the life sciences business.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But, you know, she's always been like- you have to make these decisions not from how other people will perceive you, but what do you feel? And she's like, explain to me, Bobby Kennedy. Explain to me, Vivek. Explain to me, Donald Trump. in your own words that isn't tied to, well, here's what other people will think of me when I do this. And then when I did that, she was like, okay, let's do it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Let's do it. And I mean, Trump was unbelievably true.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
No, it was very, it was a very tough moment. Kind of ballsy. It was very ballsy people. I got the amount of like hate text messages. I should have kept some of them. They're probably still on my phone actually. Um, But people were very mad. And part of, I think, why they were mad is they were afraid, meaning there was a lie that Biden was sharp as a tack.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And everybody, like clockwork, all of my friends go through it. And so it's funny, I'm sort of at the tail end of this, but that poker game has been almost like this therapy session where we all get to talk. And then as a result, people feel calmer. They feel a little bit more seen about what's going on. My point in telling you this is not sympathy.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And myself and David had not really dismantled the lie beyond just saying it looks like a lie. And I think that they were worried that it would create, I think what Peter Thiel calls this, which I really agree with, is a preference cascade.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, like Peter is a genius, but he is on an island many years ahead of the rest of us. Then there are other people, you know, like me and David to some degree, who are also sort of like, we can kind of see the patterns not nearly as fast as a Peter, but then we do a decent job of translating it for other folks. So I think people were afraid if these guys translate
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
their interactions with Donald Trump into the truth, it's going to tip a lot of people. And they were right. Because when Trump came, wow, I mean, like,
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
He had called me. So I'd had a telephone conversation. So I knew what he was like on the phone. That's when I knew I'd made a mistake before about believing what the press was saying. That's where I went back and I looked at the Charlottesville press conference. And I looked at all of them again after my phone call. When the president called me, I was like, hold on a second. This man was...
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
incredibly charming, polite, kind, He just like, what I honestly thought, Tucker, I called my wife, I was like, he was raised by really good parents. That's what I said to them. That's what I said to my wife. Because you can tell in your kids, you know, like when you see kids around and there are some, they are polite, they're kind, they make eye contact.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There's these, I don't want to call them simple, but there are these building blocks of being a human being that you need to be taught by your parents, he was taught. And I have tremendous respect for that. So then when I saw him at David's house, I mean, it's pretty incredible. It's a larger than life figure. Um, and he's extemporaneous. He talks for an hour and a half.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
He's going all over the place. He's doing the, the weave, you know, it's incredible. Um, and so I was hilarious too. He's very funny.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Which is really hard to be actually.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And, uh, and so I walked away thinking, wow, I had got it knit totally wrong. And I was lied to. And I believed at a very superficial level what the mainstream media was saying. And then I did even more research. I read the lawsuits. And it was just the amount of contortion that people were going through to try to prevent this man from getting into power made me want him to be in power even more.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Because I thought they're afraid of something. That's something they're not going to say out loud. But that is the thing that we need to exercise from the U.S. government. That thing that they want to protect.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's just the state that everybody is going through this struggle. So back to me, I was able to sort of put a finger on what my thing is. What is that big sack that I've been trying to carry up a hill that is totally worthless and not worth my time? It's this idea that I am worthless and I'm not worth anybody's time.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then, you know, different from his first time around, the caliber of the people around him, it's like the 92 Barcelona, you know, dream team. As far as I can tell, I mean, like, my gosh, like, you get Elon, you get Vivek, you get RFK, you get Tulsi, you get all of these people, you know, Howard Lutnick.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
David Sachs, Scott Besant. This is amazing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
After that, yeah, because it gave permission. You know, David is very complimentary to me in that because I was a little bit more promiscuous and not necessarily just a straight hardline Republican. Yep. It was a little bit more valuable, I think, for that cohort of people because they could kind of say, oh, well, if it's, you know, Chamath said it, oh, then yeah, sure.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But I think that he probably took a lot of heat as well. And more than that, what he did was he then said, you know, I'm really going to put my foot on the gas here. And he's great at this, which is just like, I'm going to tip the preference cascade. So then he went to the Republican convention. He spoke. He, you know, he did a lot. And his wife did a lot.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That's a real dynamic power couple, those two.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then Andreessen came out. And it was funny, like the Andreessen thing was so a little bit interesting. I don't think the full details, so I'm just speculating. But, you know, it did turn out that his partner also gave like 50 or 100 million bucks to Kamala, which I suspect then that Marc probably gave 50 or 100 million to Trump. It looked like they were splitting it, yeah.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There was an initial part where people do this, you know? Yeah. And I felt that because I'm very sensitive to that. Yes. And my feelings get hurt. Yes. And I get super annoyed by it. Um, you know, I think you call it the private equity wives for me. It was like the private equity husbands as well.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And that just comes from the way that I was raised and the things that happened to me. I don't want any sympathy for that except to say that's my thing. But now that I know it, I can try to do things that are more productive in ways where I feel real value. And I think that's a very useful process because it reintroduces, I think it can fix for so many people the thing that is so broken right now.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
They all, they all just like kind of like a scowl. And then after the election, it was more like a, and I'm like, what changed?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
What it should have done, I should have taken a step back and say, hold on, this has nothing to do with me. What is this moment? And the moment would have been, we're at the tail end of zero rates. We had trillions of dollars that the government had basically given to individuals. We had an enormous M2 money supply. And instead, I thought it was me.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think a lot of people, um, are not necessarily fighting a moral or ideological battle, Tucker. I think people are just trying to get from one day to the next day. For sure. And I respect that. at first I was hurt by it because I didn't understand it. And I thought, again, it goes back to, oh, I'm worthless. Like, is there something about me? Is that why you're rejecting me?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then I realized it has nothing to do with me. This person is just, today is a day, tomorrow is a day. And they're not fighting these battles. It doesn't make them better nor worse. It's just a different. For me, I'm caught up in my own head about having to do something a little bit more ideological and morally rooted because I need that so that I feel like there's purpose. Of course.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Not everybody's built that way. And I wasn't built that way.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I think that that's very fair. So, you know, I kind of leave it to them as what they are. I think it's good that their minds are open and their eyes are open. So the way that this is going to be really tested now is what's happening in California. If you look at the Palisades, which is an incredibly affluent area.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Beautiful place. And has just been decimated. And several of my very good friends lost their homes there. They were tried and true Democrats. It didn't matter what the candidate's name was beside the box in the ballot. They checked it and they moved on. And now the real test for them is what do they do?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Will they look through the label and actually look at the policies and ask, did these help or hurt me? All of these things that I give money to, all these NGOs and nonprofits, did they help or hurt me? California has a $322 billion a year budget. Do I, as a taxpayer who pays some of the highest taxes in the nation, have a right to ask where that money is being spent?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And if the answer to all those questions is it doesn't matter, check the box, then we deserve what we get in California. But it can be much better. Because today the state is totally broken. We have lost the script. We don't prioritize California's economic supremacy, nor its technological supremacy.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That is a huge mistake when you look at the number of companies that have left the state, Oracle, Tesla, Chevron. I mean, this is not like just fringe businesses. These are the businesses that matter. And they're voting with their feet
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, you said that we're— I would not underestimate the Democratic machine. It's a cartel that runs that state. Oh, I know. And Gavin Newsom is extremely charismatic. And he is able to convince people of things that are just not true. And so he is fighting for his political life. He definitely wants to be on the national stage.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so the real question is, is he able to convince enough people that this was the environment and that these winds came out of nowhere? Or will it be laid bare at his feet that it was just a lack of skill, intellectual rigor, and distraction and negligence and incompetence that caused this fire?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, I found that there were three bills that started in the legislature that were either approved by the legislature and were then vetoed by Newsom or were then pulled down by the legislature itself. Again, this is like Democrats on Democrat violence to just give a waiver to all of these local municipalities to go and clear the brush. Just that, clear the brush.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
We are completely de-spiritualized. Nobody believes in a higher order, faith, God. And so I think what happens is everybody has this Carl Jung moment. All of this difficulty sits on top of them. And at some point, they may never say it out loud, they think, I am living in a tale told by an idiot, right? That's that famous quote about why spirituality is important.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Now, would that have stopped the fire? No, I get that it wouldn't have stopped the fire, but the intensity of a fire is directly proportional to the energy load that you give it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So take away some of the fuel and the fire will be less. And if we can't even admit that plain truth, this is what I mean by if we're going to continue to just lie to ourselves because we care so much about this failed ideology, then California is going to just continue to just degrade.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It is true. But the thing that is important to keep in mind about California is sometimes you get lucky. Right. And we have to acknowledge our luck, but not fritter it away. Specifically in California, there is a critical mass of these 50,000 Michael Jordan engineers.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You cannot rebuild Silicon Valley by casting it to the four winds. Some people go to Peoria, Illinois. Some people end up in Boston. Some are in Miami. Some are in Las Vegas. Some are in Austin. All fine and good. But that is not the place or the way to create the technical vibrancy we need to generate technical supremacy.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You need these people close and around you so that they're cross-pollinating from each other. And this is, again, where why hasn't the state realized that? That is an incredibly critical resource.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Well, right now, if you look at California's employment, the employment picture is quite scary because it is government jobs that are convoluting how healthy the actual state is. So if you take away the government jobs, but at the end of the day, what do government bureaucrats do? They want to govern. How do they do that? They're going to legislate or they're going to regulate. Where is that felt?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's felt on private industry and private citizens. But eventually at the limit, the amount of regulation goes to infinity and they're legislating themselves into oblivion. Nobody will be there to legislate, to be governed by all of this insanity because everybody will leave. And first the people that leave are the people that can leave. Then the people that leave are the people that have to leave.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And we're in the first part.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, I mean, look, my, again, I'll tell you in terms of my poker game, half of that, half of those people that have been my lifelong friends for 20 years have left, half.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Austin, Miami.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, Texas and Florida. And it's just so frustrating. And they've left because they can't build things. The taxes were like secondary. One of my friends left because, you know, one of their children went through, you know, a bit of an identity crisis, if you want to call it that. Yes.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And the police showed up and wanted to, you know, take the kid away, you know, so that the kid could go through like a transition that the kid ultimately decided they didn't want to go through.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah. You know, that's the law in California.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I'm not sure if it's to encourage it, but my understanding of the way this works is if you as a child have these issues and you escalate that, there is a requirement for the school to basically call Child Protective Services, who may or may not call the police, who may or may not come to your house and try to take the kid away.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And when you feel that way and you don't have an answer, you start to feel angry and you start to push back and you start to think, tear it all down. None of this is working. It's all BS.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Well, they're your children to the point where the government believes that they know better.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, look, I try to think of myself as a good parent. I try to do the best I can. Do I make mistakes? Yeah, sure. But am I generally better for my kids than some other random adult? Also, yeah.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Right? And so like the idea that just some random person in an office somewhere can read some piece of paper and all of a sudden take your kids away, that's very scary. It's very scary. It makes me feel very insecure, that idea.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I'm very stubborn and I feel very grateful. I feel very grateful to America. I feel very grateful to California. It gave me a path that I would not have had anywhere else. And so I have a responsibility to stay and fix it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think people need to force the change now. It has to force change. People have to understand that these labels mean nothing. Meaning, you could have the smartest person in the world and the dumbest person in the world. You cannot vote for the dumbest person in the world just because the label beside them is something you've been told is wrong.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That is just the height of stupidity. It's not what you're allowed to do as an adult. Right. Adults aren't allowed to do that. Your kids can do that.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I want to try to solve it for myself and then as I live and as I just kind of do the things that I'm doing, start new businesses, make new investments, I want to try to point this out because I think by pointing it out, you have a chance for other people to start questioning things. Do I have a dark passenger?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And you're supposed to teach your kids that that's not how you make decisions when you're an adult.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There are some really competent people that are in that state that will... Try now to come out of the woodwork to do the right thing, to deregulate California. California has 60,000 regulations on the books. It was 10,000 less than a decade ago. Go back to 10,000. Go to 5,000. What are we afraid of? Are you afraid of the breast cancer thing that could get to market faster?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Are you afraid that Elon's autopilot can now save people's lives more? Are you afraid that we can catch rockets and then send them back to the stars and the heavens and Mars? Why is that bad?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
This is my point. It's not working. So how long do, you know, well-heeled Democratic voters need to see their state run over, need to see their lives ruined, and now their kids' lives ruined? And maybe this is the thing that actually— Well, you tell me.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So, not where I live, because the only damage that has ever happened in Silicon Valley is economic damage, but then it's righted itself. And so, people just go and move along blindly in the orthodoxy. It's only when your business is at risk where you'll flip. So, you know, you've seen kind of like meta have a total, you know, come to Jesus moment.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Have you talked to Zuckerberg about it? No, Mark and I have. You know, I gave this speech at Stanford in 2016. which went pretty viral, which kind of laid bare what was going on in social media. And he and I have not spoken since. Wow. Yeah.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think it's a calculation to manage the conditions on the field. Meaning what I said on the pod is all you need to know are two things. One is there's an incredible picture in Donald Trump's book, which is a picture of Zuck sitting in the Oval. And, by the way, this is the same book which you have to get.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It's the book where, like, you know, he talks about, you know, Trudeau's mom kind of, like, casting about with the Rolling Stones and, like, you know— Not just casting about, rolling about. Yeah, rolling about and, like, you know, he's, like, Fidel Castro's love child.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Anyways, but in that book is a picture of Zuck and it says, you know, Zuck was the nicest guy to my face but then would, you know, work against me to turn over the election and, you know— I've made it very clear that if he tries to do anything like that again, he'll go to prison for the rest of his life. That's what Trump says in the caption.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then he was asked about that last week, the exact same day that Meta changed their policies. And he said, do you think it was in response to what you said? And the president said, probably. So I think it's a very smart but necessary set of calculations, but I think they are calculations.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, I'd only be guessing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, I think that he's a very big fan of the Roman Empire. If I had to translate and guess how that manifests in his day-to-day decision-making, I think he thinks of things empirically, meaning like as an empire. And he has an empire. He has Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger. These are institutional worldwide products. In the digital sphere, he is Rome.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so I think that he cares about the propagation of that empire probably more than he cares about any philosophical trends per se. Because the empire endures if you can manage the vicissitudes of trends. That's right. So when the trend was under the Democrats to build a censorship machine, you do that. And then when the trend is to do the opposite, you'll do the opposite.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You know, I am... It's still very much a source of anger for me. Like, this idea that I'm basically worthless makes me mad. And I projected it for many years sort of on the people that I, you know, my parents for the most part, and all that dysfunction. Because I think about it a lot.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Sure. I think that that's not the question.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
He controls Facebook with an iron fist. He has complete voting control. He has less economic participation, but he has absolute power. And that was the justification in some ways of explaining how he made these changes now. It doesn't explain why it veered in the other direction then. And I think it's important to just probably get the answer to that, and then you'll know where he stands.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Meaning the economic power has ebbed and flowed, but the absolute power has never changed. So the philosophy that he believed in then, if it's the same now, then the question is, well, why did the manifestation of that power change?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I can believe that too, by the way. I'm sympathetic to that. I mean, that's got to feel like a lot of pressure when you're a young guy on the come up and a bunch of these well-heeled politicos show up at your office and say, you know, bend the knee.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There are billionaires that have said, go fuck yourself.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And they've become, you know, even more successful as a result.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think he's the heartbeat. Here's what I mean by that. I've thought about this. It is the most important temperature check that we are going to make the changes that Donald Trump wants. Meaning, I think the president in some ways is the most powerful job, but I think this second term he's more of a vessel in the sense that he's got all of these great field generals who can now run the place.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And of all the field generals, the one that has just an incremental more degree of freedom to also communicate openly and continuously with the public is him. So you'll get a sense of whether there's an arrhythmia by just monitoring his X feed. You'll also get a sense of whether there's like a, you know, like if the drumbeat is building, I think you get a sense of that from Elon as well.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I think he is the, he's the heartbeat.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, and that's what's so powerful. And this is why I think, you know, when you compare and contrast Zuck with Elon, I think Zuck is like every other CEO. And Elon is just a complete singular outlier in the sense that there is no book that would have told you, just tell the truth grounded in your morality from day one and just burn the boats. You know, that old Cortez line, right?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And people would have said, what? And so whatever he's felt, he's shared in complete truth and candor. No other CEO has ever done that, and probably no one will ever will, because you can't do it as a strategy, and you can't implement it on day 17 or day 1004. It's you either are or you're not. And so he sets a way of behavior that future CEOs should emulate,
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But we also have to a little bit give a break and cut some slack to everybody else because they're just never going to do as good a job as him in doing that.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Oh, he's a star. But he's a kind guy. Like, I mean, you know him as well. But like, I think that people should know this. Like, this is a kind, he's a kind guy. He's like, he's a beautiful person. He's a kind guy.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Gosh. Meaning, like, the intersection of private and public industry kind of thing?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then when I make mistakes, so in that 2022 period, when I started to really write down, here are all the mistakes I made, one or two layers.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Well, it happened in a moment where I think that there was the intersection of a lot of free speech issues. And I just think there was some stuff that I'm not going to get into, but personal stuff, I think, probably in his own life. And it just made him question, what are these philosophies? What are these ideologies? And how destructive are they if we can't question things and talk out loud?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so... We all got very lucky. He paid the personal. This is what I mean by like everybody can be like, wow, it's so easy. It must be amazing. I would crumble under the weight of that. I don't think I'm capable of that. I know that about myself. It doesn't look easy at all. My God. And like the price you pay, the personal price you pay, I couldn't do it. I think he's a unique person that way.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Wrote them down. It's like, okay, I invested a couple hundred million dollars in this thing. It went to zero. What was I thinking? And I would first, in your mind is very clever. At first you lie to yourself and you lie to yourself incredibly well. Well, I underwrote it this way. I thought the discounted cash flows were, it's all BS.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
His capacity for pain, his capacity for just the sheer drudgery. It's incredible. I've never seen anything like it. I mean, I guess in this context, I've been around two of these incredible figures. Mark, I worked in the trenches with. Elon, I've seen now for 15 plus years.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
and i when you think about those two um yeah with elon there's just an incredible intellectual curiosity an incredible amount of ability to suffer pain and suffering and yet he's incredibly kind i don't know how he also seems to i i don't understand how he does everything
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I know, exactly. Look, I got here last night, ate at the Pink Elephant, went to bed, and I felt guilty. I thought, you know, shouldn't I be doing more yesterday? I really thought that. And I saw my email kind of piling up, and I used you as an excuse. Oh, I have to be fresh for Tucker. Good night. That's what I did. So you're right.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then I think, okay, I'm operating across an investment portfolio and one company that I run very intensely. how do you do that multiplied by seven and all of these other, I don't know how you do it. I really don't know, Tucker.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I wish that there was an answer, but I also think it's not the right thing to answer in the sense that we're all going to give some glib answer and then everybody's going to try to run and copy it. And I think what you forget is he is the product of 20 years of preparation. He started with one company. They need to have two companies. Do you know what I mean?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So these are reps upon reps upon reps upon reps. over decades. And I think it's important to keep that in mind. That is a level of skill. He is demonstrating human peak level performance. It's easier to observe it in maybe an athlete or something else, but that's what he's demonstrating. He is at the peak of human intellect.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
That is the brain unencumbered by all the other stuff that maybe a lot of us get caught up in.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Great idea.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I mean, it's not I've never he tweeted out like, like, there's all these things I've never taught. I never tell him these things. But like, there are things that he's that's why I follow him. Because part of it is like, I get things from him in Twitter, that really profoundly affect my life. So when I was going through all of that turbulence in 2022, you know, he tweeted out, I think it was in 21.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I can't remember when it was, but he's like, I've just sold all my homes and possessions. And I went back. Immediately I thought of, that is the one thing that I was taught as a Buddhist when I was raised Buddhist. And despite all the stuff and all the anger that I had, and I never thought that Buddhism was all that effective or useful for me, I took one lesson.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
One layer after that was, and then I communicated my thinking to hold myself accountable, also BS. That communication got me attention and I liked the way it made me feel. And then I said, hold on a second. That feels true. I hate that I can even say it, that it may be true, but that feels true.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Detach yourself from the physical world.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I saw it and I connected that dot to myself and I said, I am the opposite of that.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I am totally, totally, totally attached to the physical world.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There you go.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Same idea. Same idea. And so he tweets that out. He sold all of his houses. He sells all of his possessions. And I'm like, what am I doing? I'm buying more. I'm like, oh, I'm going to take delivery of this thing and this other thing. And now I have to hire people to manage the things. And I'm like, what am I doing? Yes. So that helped me a lot.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
I've never told, I never told, but yeah, these things. So he is an incredible, I think, guidepost on how to clarify your own intentions. If you're willing to see through it all and clarify that message, that would be a thing that I think he's an incredible exemplar of. Find the thing that you care about. and then just double and triple and quadruple and quintuple down on that thing.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
No, but I think we need to make it more fashionable to be spiritual. Oh, you don't think it's changing? I don't think it's changing yet. I think that a lot of this extreme wealth was created in people that are in their 30s, some in their 20s. Many of them are in their 40s. And I think that over this next 10 or 15 years, there's going to be a crisis of identity.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
when they realized that, you know, they were playing dumb games focused on superficial things beyond the companies themselves. And that there's a bigger purpose, right? There needs to be a loyalty to country, loyalty to the state, loyalty to the people around you that you don't even know. Not to virtue signal, but to actually just do the hard practical work.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Part of that isn't rooted, I think, in a spirituality. That's not there yet. But I think that it will become cool again. Sorry, it can become cool again. I believe in God.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And the reason I believe in God, and if I were to tell my friends in Silicon Valley, the way that I would incept this idea would be purely from a scientific lens, which is, if you believe it is true, which I think most people do, that there is a finite moment in which the universe began. Explain not the process, but explain the moment. And you cannot.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And it is an endless rabbit hole that if you spend your time, and again, when I was feeling very empty, that's where I started. And I read all about, I read about Islam, I read about Christianity, I read about Judaism, I reread about Buddhism. And the only explanation is God.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so then I go back and I start to think like, how many other decisions that I made that I made in that period were rooted in that? And when I saw four or five of them, I said, this is not what I'm supposed to be doing. And then I went back and I said, how many other decisions in my life have I been making that were rooted in the idea of look at me? And it turned out that there were a lot.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And I think that that's a way where people there can be, you know, they'll let their guard down because if you start a conversation about physics and cosmology and people are very open-minded and then you go, well, how did it happen? How did T equals zero happen? And what does T minus one look like? And their brains explode.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Their brains truly explode because people that are very good technologically in that way, are very good at getting to explanations. And they're very good at kind of like breaking things down. I know it's used a lot now, but into first principles.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
There is no first principles explanation for how the world, for how the universe began. There is none. Don't tell me about the Big Bang Theory. It doesn't work. Don't tell me about general relativity because it all breaks. We have to make these profound assumptions in math and physics to make it all hang together because you cannot tell me what T equals zero. right at that moment? How?
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Nobody can answer that.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so then if you look at this entire lived world around you, I don't know, I just I am filled with this, like, immense gratitude. And then I think it must be God. And that gives me like, it gives me something. I didn't have that before. And so I take that. I'm not trying to push that on other people, but that works for me.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Makes me a better husband, makes me a better dad, it makes me a better friend. I do things now that I, when the fires were happening, my friends, I just round robin, I just kept calling them.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
every day to check in on them um that's a small thing right um but these are values that i had lost somewhere along the way where you know just like just calling people caring about people um one of my friends lost the home i spent an entire afternoon not an entire afternoon sorry again i don't want to overplay it i spent like an hour or so going through all my google photos
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah. I think we had a fever, and that fever has broken. And what has to lie in its place are examples of how all of these things that we thought we were not allowed to do when we do them actually work, meaning we're actually just going to focus on merit and get incredible people
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And it'll turn out that you'll get your diversity wish, but you're not going to get it by mandating it and forcing it down our throats. We're just going to get the best people. And then the best people are just going to go and kick ass together. We're going to get an ecology that we protect and love because we want to be out there hunting, fishing, camping, living it, skiing it, whatever it is.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
The things I bought, the clothes I wore, the things I said, the way that I tried to live a life. And I felt that that was not me. I was ashamed of it. Then I was angry about it. And then I asked my wife, I need you to help me fix it. And this is what I mean by, like, you have to have a partner, I think, in crime that can really go through the ups and downs with you.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
But we're going to get there because we actually manage it and take care of it and clean up all of the stuff that would otherwise burn it to the ground. So we're going to test all of this stuff. And I think it's going to work. And then the other thing we need to do is we need to cut down all of these things that are these little ropes that are pulling us all back, meaning
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
This is a stretch, but I'll use myself in this example. I think I'm one of those 50,000 people that can go and ram and jam for Team USA. I can't. There are moments where I've been really dunking on people, if this is a basketball analogy. I want to do more of that. I want Team USA to kick ass. I just want it to be a little bit easier.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so I hope that we figure out a way, instead of having 60,000 little regulations and people that want to lord over us, just give us 10,000 and just trust us that we're trying to do the right thing. And if we don't, fine. Trust but verify. And if we screw up, fine. Hold us accountable. But just give us a chance so that we can just make sure that USA, Team America, that idea...
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
is the singular organizing function for America, not everybody's own little pet project.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I think that that's possible. But, I mean, time will tell. These next four years will be super critical.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Thanks, Tucker.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And then in 2022, when the war in Ukraine started, the bottom fell out financially in Silicon Valley, in, frankly, a lot of things that I was working on. It was such a wake-up call, and it was the biggest blessing of my life. I never thought I would be in a position to have made that much money. In hindsight, I've never been more blessed than to torch $3 or $4 billion. Thank you.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
She's like, I've been telling you this for years. What every wife says. But, you know, I was like, finally, I listened. And, you know, she always makes this joke. She's like, I could tell you the smartest thing in the world. And she's like, you think you need a man to tell you. And I said, well, this time this man was me. And it's a joke.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And so, and my father-in-law. And my father-in-law, when I finally like kind of got rid of all the anger that I had, my father-in-law was a father that I wish I had had. And what I mean by this is like, Some people may not understand this, Tucker. You may or may not. It is extremely discomforting to feel unconditional love from the people around you if you have not felt it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
If you have always felt it, you don't know what it means when somebody says it.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
You're like, what does that mean? I don't know. I... knew what it did not, what I thought love looked like. And then when you have people that love you in this way, it's tilting. And it made me angry because I would go back to what is this? I would push back on this and I would go back to that and say, why didn't that look like this? And I was just, I was in an endless loop of just being mad.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
Yeah, and at first I was mad at her, you know, meaning subconsciously, like, because she's giving me something that I don't understand. And I thought, there's got to be a catch. Where's the asterisk? There's always a catch. And, you know, for years, she's like, there's no catch. And then she says to me, this is the best thing that's ever happened to us.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
She's like, now this next phase of totally building will be that you and I do it together. And again, I freaked out. And I thought, what do you mean? Where'd you find this woman? Oh my God. She's, I mean, she's from the heavens. She turns out she's from Milan, but she's from the heavens. And she's like, but we'll do it together.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And it's going to be incredible, whatever it is, because we're going to look back and the process will have been the thing. So I needed a guide and I needed to be open. to listening. And so I needed that event. Because think about a kid, me. I grew up in Sri Lanka. There's a civil war. We claim refugee status in Canada. Grew up on welfare. I get an engineering degree.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
And within a year, I'm in the United States. And my career just goes up and to the right. Everything was working. Youngest vice president at AOL when I was 26 years old, running this big messaging business. Then I get recruited by Zuck. I go to Facebook as one of the early execs. I build that business.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
All the key things that they look back on now, the network effects, the early monetization, internationalization, that was my team. Most of my team still runs that company. So it was like, then I left and I started an investment business. Those investment returns are really good So everything was quote unquote working.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
So I held myself in really high regard, but for the wrong things, if that makes sense. Of course it does. I could point to a bank account or Twitter followers or all of this stuff. And then when that was undone, right, 2022, 2023, what happened? What happened? I thought that this was all supposed to work and it would work forever.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Chamath Palihapitiya: Zuckerberg, Rogan, Musk, and the Incoming “Golden Age” Under Trump
It was an opportunity for me to really reset and tell myself the truth, the ugly truth. Hey, man, you are motivated by stupid, inconsequential stuff. Get back to basics. And then when I looked around, it wasn't just me. There's so many of my peers in Silicon Valley that had also just wasted the last decade doing nothing. We were all quote unquote wealthier, but we were more broke, you know?