All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Sat, 01 Mar 2025
(0:00) Bestie intros (1:41) Epstein files first release underwhelms (4:40) Friedberg recaps his experience on Celebrity Jeopardy! (14:22) State of autonomous robots (21:06) Comparing annual reports from Stripe and Adyen; Stripe's network effects, stablecoin infra, and the pace of AI company building (29:12) State of the market: stocks, tariffs, spending bill, the "great reset" (49:07) Trump's Gold Card (56:19) Sophisticated investor test, changing accreditation laws (1:06:57) USPS, Bezos refocuses the WaPo's opinion page Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1895195194947183047 https://x.com/adcock_brett/status/1895175400160133543 https://x.com/markjeffrey/status/1892735775550406828 https://x.com/pitdesi/status/1895117427480109238 https://x.com/jmover/status/1895129169882661100 https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/cpi-january-2025.html https://x.com/StealthQE4/status/1894227465616171361 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-ttACozP8s https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y https://x.com/chamath/status/1888371069322686895 https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025/will-trump-sell-2pt5k-5k-gold-cards-in-2025?tid=1740688723350 https://x.com/Jason/status/1706067572226244789 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/02/20/trump-usps-takeover-dejoy/ https://x.com/Jason/status/1894412028279693546 https://x.com/JeffBezos/status/1894757287052362088
Chapter 1: Who are the hosts of the All In Podcast?
All right, everybody, welcome back to the All In Podcast, or... incredible comedian, celebrity guest, got sick at the last minute today and didn't make it. We won't say who it is, but my Lord, when he comes on this show, you are going to laugh your ass off because he's awesome. I like the comedians.
I think that their takes on society and culture are pretty interesting, I think. Do you think it will work in our format?
What's your prediction here?
We've never done it. I think the quality of the show is best when it's less just people doing takes and it's more the back and forth banter. So yeah.
That's what I'm always trying to do is get the ball to go around the horn and get some real dialogue going here. But, you know, sometimes people feel passionate. With me again this week on the All In podcast, David Freiberg and Chamath Palihapitiya. My name is Jason Calacanis. You can follow me on x.com slash Jason. He's at Chamath and he's at Freiberg.
Why can't I make fun of you in the replies on Twitter anymore?
Oh, because it's a very good question.
Did you block my ability to reply to you?
No, what I did was, my replies were so many maga lunatics and crypto scams that I had no choice but to like, I had to do something because I would have like 500 replies to every single one. And I put it on subscription. And I said, if you want to reply, it's $3 a month now. 1,500 lunatics signed up.
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Chapter 2: Why was the Epstein files release underwhelming?
Or do you want to go right into Epstein? The letter from Pam to Cash is crazy. Dear Director Patel,
Before you came into office, I requested the full and complete files related to Jeffrey Epstein. In response to this request, I received approximately 200 pages of documents. Late yesterday, I learned from a source that the FBI field office in New York was in possession of thousands of pages of documents related to the investigation and indictment of Epstein.
Despite my repeated requests, the FBI never disclosed the existence of these files. When you and I spoke yesterday, you were just as surprised as I was to learn this new information. By 8 a.m. tomorrow, February 28th, the FBI will deliver the full and complete Epstein files to my office, regardless of how such information was obtained.
There will be no withholding or limitations to my or your access. My question to you guys is, do you think that this is much ado about nothing and that the FBI needs to have the discretion to be able to say no? Or do you think this is one of these things where you're not allowed to do what they're doing?
It's above my pay grade. I don't know the law of FBI investigations. And then what if they investigated a bunch of people, they were not guilty, and then they were in the files? Maybe they need to... look at them before they do a document dump. Maybe there's informants in there. I'm trying to think of what happened with the whistleblower papers from... This says something different.
This doesn't say, let's negotiate what we should release together so that we protect people. This says, we're just going to lie to you and tell you that here's this protection.
That's her side to the story. Maybe they have another side. Maybe the FBI has a different side. We'd have to hear from them, right?
is this just like people are intrigued by the gossip angle of it or is it because they want to prosecute people for hurting people or is it because they want to cancel people and this is a nice opportunity to cancel like what's what's what's the this i think this is an interesting question because this thing's been going on for 20 years i think this actually has more to do with conspiracy there is and now the deep state like is there a deep state cover-up is the question i think the question is if
the chain of command requests something, are you allowed to withhold it? Because you decide in your own judgment that The person above you doesn't deserve to know it. I think that's an important question.
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Chapter 3: How did David Friedberg perform on Celebrity Jeopardy?
Oh, yeah. OK. How dare you? Twelve thousand eight hundred for Dave. But you have to be correct in African geography. Known for its snows, this Tanzanian peak is both Africa's highest and the world's tallest freestanding mountain. What is Mount Kilimanjaro? That is correct. Yeah.
What did you think of that moment, Shimon? He goes all in. And these people, they think that they're going to get Friedberg by giving him a question about Africa, not knowing that he's African-American.
Honestly, like a six-year-old.
You guys want to hear something crazy?
A six-year-old should know that category.
That category, African geography. I was at dinner the night before with our friend Xander and his wife. And we started talking about their son was taking a quiz on African geography. And they started giving me all the questions. And we were actually quizzing at dinner the night before on African geography. It was like a slumdog millionaire moment.
And I was like, in my head, I'm like, there's no way that's real, that that actually happened. We literally were just talking about African geography at dinner the night before. And I'm like, the judges had to have been listening or something.
But you were nervous. You talked about being nervous. And your techniques, our friend Jason Kuhn, we actually are lucky enough to play with one serious professional poker player in our game. Jason Coon comes to the game and he coached you a bit. What did he, what did he, what was his advice to you?
Well, I was a little wound up because I've watched jeopardy my whole, like since I was a kid. Right. I mean, I don't watch it regularly, but a couple of months ago I was kind of watching the show. I kind of reached out and was like, Hey, you know, do you guys know anyone on the show? And that's how I got like hooked up. So yeah, And I'm like, wait, I'm really going on? That's awesome. Okay.
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Chapter 4: What is the current state of autonomous robots?
What gives Chamath happiness is hurting others. That's exactly that.
That's his love language.
That's his love language.
I'm hurting the people he loves. His love language is hurting the people who love him.
I like putting you two to the test and I like to see you two break. Okay. This is what makes him feel good. Anyways, did you guys see Brett Adcock's tweet? No. What did he say? Friend of the pod, Brett Adcock, who's the CEO and founder of Figure. He just announced today that he's moved his timelines up by two years.
He's going to be beta testing robots in the home by the middle to end of this year. That's crazy. Crazy. Crazy.
Are you an investor in his company?
I don't talk about my investments. But in this case, no. No disclosures here. But in this case, no, I'm not an investor.
So we're not talking a book here. I do think Optimus and this figure and the other, this is about a dozen of these doing it credibly. If they can make these for, what, 20 grand? When do you think it becomes something a middle-class household, dual-income household would buy one of these? Five years from now? Ten years from now? How probably could they be?
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Chapter 5: How do Stripe and Adyen compare in their recent reports?
Well, electing Trump was step one. And I don't know if there's something even more populist than Trump.
No, I think he is the mechanism of implementing the austerity. I think people want this austerity. Just the question is, what happens when the actual byproducts of that austerity are felt by people for six or seven years? I don't know what the answer is.
Certainly people are in favor of Doge and downsizing the government more than I think anybody anticipated. People are, the statistics are showing and the polls are showing, Freeberg, that it's incredibly popular. When you look at this, I don't want to say conflicting, but it's a lot of different conflicting data here as to what's going on. What do you see in the numbers here?
And what does your instinct tell you? Because... part of this, I think, is getting used to Trump again, right? Like, he says a lot of stuff. Some of them are scary. Some of them are just trolling and everything in between. So what are your thoughts here? Are markets just adjusting to the new team back in town?
The big question in the Trump actions is around tariffs versus the tax cuts that are being proposed versus the spending cuts. Those are kind of the three levers. And there's a very serious sensitivity to the economic outlook for growth and inflation as a function of how far each of those three levers are pulled and how they relate to each other.
is Trump actually going to pull forward the cuts that he has talked about or that Elon's talked about? How real is that? There's a whole spectrum of opinions on that right now. On one end, you're looking at the House and the Senate reconciliation process for the budget proposals that they've put forth.
And you're going to scratch your head and be like, are we really cutting enough relative to what the economists and others are telling us we need to do? Meanwhile, you've got Elon and Trump saying, hey, we're cutting, we're cutting, we're saving, we're going to get to a trillion dollars a year. But that's not showing up necessarily in the budget. Is it showing up in the actions out of Doge, TBD?
So there's a whole spectrum of opinions on the cuts. On the tariff side, there's a spectrum of like, how far are these tariffs going to go? You know, the United States, up until 18-something years, was entirely tariff driven in our federal government's revenue. And it was a way of being kind of protectionary to the industry here.
And then over time, the tariffs rates came down and down and down as we introduced an income tax, which started, I think at 3% right after the civil war and went to 5% for high income earners. And then obviously in the 20th century, that's totally flipped. Now we have like no tariffs and a 50% income tax for the highest bracket.
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Chapter 6: What is the state of the market amidst Trump's policies?
Yeah, so there's a bunch of scams going on about this EB-5. But I said, as your president, I'm going to sell these citizenships and get 100,000 people to do 500K each, right? And I said they would sell like Taylor Swift tickets. I got to tell you, I think out of the gate, Apple... Meta, Microsoft buy, you know, one to 10,000 of these.
So let's say you were able to buy these and you could swap them out. Like if somebody left and went back to their country, you could still use it, you still have the visa. These would become incredible for recruiting talent. If you got to get the CEO of a company over here, and you can offer them that you could buy their company.
Is that how it's going to work? Or is that is it going to be tied to a person? Do you think?
We got two different issues here. One is, could you swap these between another person? We don't know. The president could make it like that if they wanted to for corporations to give them essentially what is a season pass that you could swap between users. Those things exist in the world as a concept. So he could decide to do that. The second piece... is how valuable they are.
Are they worth 5 million or are they worth a million?
Which would sell the most? The way this is proposed by Trump and Lutnik is it's $5 million for basically a green card. You get permanent residence in the United States. You get to live here permanently.
Yeah.
They're getting rid of the EB-5 program after this. That's their proposal. And so here's the math. Let me ask you guys a question. Jamal, J. Cal, how many people in the world have a net worth above 100 million?
Oh, above 100. Well, we know that there are like 4,000 or 5,000 billionaires is the estimate, I think, globally. So a cent a millionaire.
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