All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Sat, 08 Mar 2025
(0:00) The Besties welcome Joe Lonsdale! (3:51) Jason recaps an eventful week in Washington (8:29) Trump's tariffs: endgame, impact, chaos, master plan (26:25) DOGE, IRA grifting, do campaign contributions need to be capped? (53:42) CoreWeave IPO (1:03:36) Trump 2.0 favoring Main Street over Wall Street, bond market breakdown, re-balancing the economy (1:14:19) State of Ukraine/Russia, the Western alliance, and how techno-optimism plays into the future of defense pacts (1:24:31) GPT-4.5, Grok 3 on X, and the Golden Age of language models (1:33:47) All-In for F1 Miami! (1:37:34) David Sacks joins Jason to break down the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile (1:48:30) Sacks addresses clearing all of his crypto-related positions prior to Inauguration Day (1:57:23) Importance of disclosures and updates on a market structure bill GET TICKETS for All-In Live: Miami https://allin.com/events Follow Joe: https://x.com/JTLonsdale Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114093526901586124 https://x.com/JTLonsdale/status/1896245689488920748 https://x.com/Jason/status/1896235076456739138 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114093946326587357 https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-ceo-meet-with-trump-tout-investment-plans-2025-03-03 https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1896655215899893968 https://x.com/USATODAY/status/1897248477081460849 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-rejects-trump-administrations-bid-avoid-paying-usaid-con-rcna194230 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114116432894994278 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114112015891353323 https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/trump-auto-tariff-rate-will-be-around-25-2025-02-18 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USGOVT https://x.com/DOGE/status/1897464303428755692 https://electrek.co/2025/02/07/renewables-90-percent-new-us-capacity-2024-ferc https://www.thefp.com/p/a-20-billion-slush-fund-nonprofits https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1896992192197013888 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114117008305421663 https://x.com/chamath/status/1895948351516131515 https://x.com/chamath/status/1895948351516131515 https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1897737394964906437 https://x.com/great_martis/status/1897194563800064153 https://x.com/great_martis/status/1897581115952804248 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000119312525044231/d899798ds1.htm https://x.com/chamath/status/1896052861500604884 https://www.newsweek.com/map-global-thorium-reserves-country-2039893 https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-stockpile-6f1314f5e99bbf47cc3ee6fc6178588d https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/strengthening-american-leadership-in-digital-financial-technology https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/establishment-of-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserveand-united-states-digital-asset-stockpile https://x.com/dmartkc/status/1896260059640025113 https://x.com/ryangrim/status/1896306748052623852 https://x.com/_Andre_Ellis/status/1896935969041104981 https://x.com/KyleSamani/status/1897130321021411750 https://x.com/pbartstephens/status/1897008176467468349 https://x.com/HHorsley/status/1897461451675328879
Chapter 1: Who are the hosts and guests of this episode?
All right, everybody, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. Man, we're starting off with three of the four original band members. Chamath Palihapitiya, he's your chairman dictator. The sultan of science, David Freberg. And of course, I'm your host, Jason Calacanis.
and david sachs from the original band will be on the second half of the show we're going to do some of the classics yes we get some of the classics including ukraine ukraine ukraine coming up on the second half of the show in our greatest hits revival tour but with us again sitting in the red throne is the one the only joe lonsdale is back
He is, if you can imagine, further right than Keith Reboy and Sachs. They tell him to pump the brakes. Welcome back to the program, Joe Lonsdale. How you doing, brother?
Hey, Jason. Doing great here in Texas today.
Ah, yes. I see you right over the hill on the ranch. Our ranches are within 20 minutes of each other. Joe Lonsdale and I are shooting guns at our ranches.
Are you on a ranch, Joe? Well, I bought a bunch of the homes and connected them, so it's kind of like a ranch, but it's actually a suburb.
It's more like a compound.
He has a compound.
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Chapter 2: What is the economic impact of Trump's tariffs?
Suburb.
Suburb.
That creaking sound you hear are the libs rolling in the guillotines. Yes, he bought the small town he lives in. Joe Lonsdale's here. Of course, he is a venture capitalist, the founder of 8VC. They've got six Billy in AUM, co-founded Palantir, OpenGov, and Adapar, $3 billion-plus companies he co-founded. And... an early investor in Andro. I'm in the market for secondary shares.
You know how to reach me, folks. If you're selling your secondary in Andro, I'm building a position for obvious reasons. And Oculus Wish, Oscar Health, amongst his other investments. Hey, what was the feedback, Joe, on your first appearance here on the All In pod?
People loved it. You know, you guys gave me no warning. So I was like on a mobile phone sideways, but it worked out. It was great. Everyone saw it. I guess it looks like people actually watch your show, Jason. It was surprising. Apparently.
People tune in from time to time, and that's why we call it the number one podcast in the world. How are you doing, Chamath Palihapitiya? How are you doing, brother? I'm doing really well. Okay. Once again, giving me a ton to work with there.
And Friedberg- Wait, what would you like to know? Why don't you ask me a question?
Oh, well, I asked you how you're doing. Maybe you say, oh, I had a great time with my kids. I took them to Disneyland or I don't know, chef made an amazing arugula. You used to give me some color to work with here.
Nat was in Rome all last week. Great. What was she doing in Rome? She had to go see her factory. She also had to go and renew her visa at the U.S. Embassy there.
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Chapter 3: How does government spending affect the economy?
Now, I think that the income tax piece is critical here because in order to make the capital available to build that industry here, we need to unleash capital and reducing of income taxes, the economic theory would be, that capital will now flow into these entrepreneurial activity, these opportunities that have emerged, where suddenly it makes sense for me to make textiles
to make metals, to make materials, to make cars, to make all this stuff here in the United States that I otherwise wouldn't be making. So both the corporate and the personal income tax, by reducing it, unleashes capital that instead of going into the government, it now goes into the private sector into building businesses. Okay.
I think that there's another theory about this, which is as you drop the income tax, One of the kind of key theories that I've heard spoken about a lot lately, and I think we're gonna hear about it a lot more this year, is trying to get the United States to move away from an income taxation model to a consumption taxation model.
So effectively what the tariffs do is there's a tax for you buying certain things. So now, instead of getting taxed when you earn money as an individual, you get taxed when you spend money.
And some people think that that's both a more fair system and a more kind of economically vibrant system because that will drive investment in the things that people want to produce because the money's going into production.
Do you think that, Friedberg? I'm curious.
I don't know. It's a really interesting economic theory. I mean, I am not opposed to seeing some sort of an experiment play out where we look at a shift from income taxation to consumption taxation and see if it actually does have an effect on economic growth and productivity. It has not been done in 150 years.
There's a lot of economic theorists on both sides of the equation saying this does work or it doesn't work. Okay. And let me just say one last thing. By reducing government spending, we are moving workers from the government into the private workforce.
So as those new industries pop up, as those investments start to get made in building new industry onshore, where are the workers going to come from? Remember, the government's 30% of the US GDP today. So if that's not a great way to invest money, maybe the private industry is better at investing money and employing people.
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Chapter 4: What role do super PACs play in political influence?
So a hypervisor is basically a middleware layer of software that allows you to abstract units of compute so that then you can make them available. And instead they basically allowed you to write to the bare metal and this very native approach that allowed them to get a lot of traction. So it's a really interesting thing to note that just that simple thing, like one simple technical design decision
can allow you to build what looks like, at least from the revenue perspective, an incredible business, right? So kudos to them. Super awesome to see that you can still maneuver around the big giants. I think that that's cool. I think the big question with CoreWeave is, what is the period of amortization and the useful life of these GPUs from NVIDIA? And I think that that question is up in the air.
As you said, Jason, a lot of their losses are these interest payments. And as long as that they have that calculated right in their models that they used to borrow all this money to buy all these GPUs from Nvidia, this is gonna be a killer business.
To the extent that they got that calculation wrong, meaning we thought the useful life was 10 years, but it turned out to be five, this business is deeply underwater. So I think that that's the bet. The bet is they've built an amount of headway. They're going to continue to do this good technical engineering. But the other side of it is, is the useful life right? Is the technology curve right?
Is Moore's law and all these other things, will they work in its favor or against it? And I think that's the decision.
People say useful lifespan, GPUs, three to five years before... The next generation is so much more powerful, especially in relation to power consumption, that it's worth running it. Now, with servers, old CPUs for running Facebook, it's a totally different story. You can keep those running five to seven years before it's not worth running them. You have to turn them off. What do you think here?
You're right. There's an economic question on the power and all these things. I actually know Brandon. He lives nearby me in my house in Montana. He's a really smart guy. And I think the really interesting thing when they built this that I think is relevant going forward is these guys were commodities traders. And they were originally buying stuff to mine Bitcoin and other stuff like that.
And they realized as commodities traders, there's a certain supply and demand in the market of GPU chips, but also of all the data centers, by the way. And it's really, it's really interesting. What they did is they locked down the full supply of tons of data centers, tons of the power they needed tons of the chips. And they're very, very thoughtful.
I mean, they're effectively, they're traders, and they're and they're very economic. And they have, I think they have a lot of this stuff.
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Chapter 5: What is CoreWeave and why is its IPO significant?
we have an opportunity to kind of refinance this $10 trillion that's coming due in the next 12 months and get ourselves into a kind of more sustainable financing position. There's still the fiscal position, which is how are we spending money and how are we spending money over time that needs to be addressed?
This is a central question. You're totally right.
Let's address that specifically with Ukraine. You're a bit of a hawk, an American exceptionalist, Joe, and... We are looking at a situation where we spent $175 billion. There were some other numbers that Trump was floating around that were incorrect, and they got fact-checked. $175 billion is what we're actually in for, according to all accounts.
This was done, as I said many times on this very program and got laughed at and joked about, done on a lease loan. Trump, because these things were done on a lease loan, now has the upper hand with Zelensky. And he's a great negotiator. And he said, we want 500 billion back. Don't need to make this about dollars and cents here, because obviously this is life and death and people's democracy.
We're talking about their sovereignty. But that $175 billion, if he gets that $500 billion back, that's a 42% IRR in three years on this. Even if we just got our money back, that would be fine for the American people. How do you look at the war in Ukraine, both financially and in terms of containing Putin, and finally, in terms of our participation in NATO? Is it time for us to leave NATO?
Joe Lonsdale.
Wow. Well, you know, Jason, Putin's a bad guy. That's number one. He shouldn't have invaded.
Thank you for saying that. It's refreshing to hear it on this podcast.
You know, I do think the last administration mismanaged it. I don't think he would have invaded with Trump as president. He certainly would have invaded with a competent person threatening him. But now we have to have peace, and I do want peace. I don't want to have the war continuing. But to get peace, you've got to get both sides to come to the table. I prefer peace through strength.
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Chapter 6: How is the current market environment impacting Main Street vs. Wall Street?
This is like a hundred Michelin star restaurants opening up in your city. You just don't have enough meals to eat. We're basically drowning in abundance to Freeburg's point. I don't think we understand exactly how golden... how golden this golden age is in terms of technology.
Distribution becomes really important. I think that's why Grok inside of Hex is very valuable. But also, I think Google just said that they're going to drop an AI button right into the front door core search page. I don't know if you guys saw that.
No, Google's doing it. When you're logged in, you will get the snippet at the top Inside of YouTube, they're doing summaries of the chat and the comments. And then you think about what Meta could do. You know, they already put the AI box up there, but, you know, they'll knock some of that off.
No, I'm on the Google front door, like google.com.
Does anyone use that anymore?
Well, I mean, Google searches are still going. And Facebook is about to launch a competitor to ChatGPTG. A search engine. And Grok, yeah. Yeah, they're going to do a straight up. A standalone app. And the thing that they are so good at is whenever they launch an app, it doesn't matter when they launch it, they'll just get it to a billion people.
Yeah, I mean, that is super true. All this, I think, leads to... so much abundance. What I'm seeing in startups, I was the first investor in a company called Superhuman, very elegant software, luxury software for email productivity. Give it a shot. What he did was, I didn't mean it as a super plug here, but anyway, I'm so in love with the company and the founder.
I just had them on this week in startups. He's like one of the best product minds I've ever met. Keep going. Extraordinary. and superhuman.
Now, because it's gotten so cheap to do AI, that they are composing in this beta, I'm in all of the replies to your email in real time on the back end, and you can see potential drafts, they summarize everything, even if you never read the summary, that would be cost prohibitive, six to 12 months ago, but now it's a no brainer, because they're paid software, it's like,
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