All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
Sat, 31 May
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(0:00) Bestie intros! (1:25) The AI Doomer Ecosystem: goals, astroturfing, Biden connections, effective altruist rebrand, global AI regulation (25:17) Doom vs Boom in AI: Job Destruction or Abundance? (52:44) Big, Beautiful Bill cleanup and upside: DOGE angle, CBO issues (1:17:14) US Steel/Nippon Steel deal: national champions and golden votes Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://nypost.com/2025/05/28/business/ai-could-cause-bloodbath-for-white-collar-jobs-spike-unemployment-to-20-anthropic-ceo https://polymarket.com/event/us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-in-2025 https://www.aipanic.news/p/the-ai-existential-risk-industrial https://www.semafor.com/article/05/30/2025/anthropic-emerges-as-an-adversary-to-trumps-big-bill https://x.com/nypost/status/1760623631283954027 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/23/google-gemini-ai-images-wrong-woke https://www.thefp.com/p/ex-google-employees-woke-gemini-culture-broken https://www.campusreform.org/article/biden-admins-new-ai-executive-order-prioritizes-dei/24312 https://x.com/chamath/status/1927847516500009363 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/microsoft-is-cutting-3percent-of-workers-across-the-software-company.html https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1927796514337746989 https://x.com/StephenM/status/1926715409807397204 https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1926981646718206243 https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5320248-the-bond-market-is-missing-the-real-big-beautiful-story https://x.com/chamath/status/1928536987558105122 https://x.com/chamath/status/1927373268828266795 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/03/biden-blocks-us-steel-takeover-by-japans-nippon-steel-citing-national-security.html https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114558783827880495
Chapter 1: What is the All In podcast about?
All right, everybody, welcome back to the All In podcast, the number one podcast in the world. You got what you wanted, folks. The original quartet is here live from D.C. with a great shirt. Is that is your haberdasher making that shirt or is that a Tom Ford? That white shirt is so crisp. So perfect. David Sachs, you're talking about me. You're czar. You're czar.
I'll tell you exactly what it is. I'll tell you what it is. You can tell me if it's right. Brioni. Yes, of course. Brioni. bink. Brioni spread collar. Look at that. How many years have I spent being rich?
When a man turns 50, the only thing he should wear is Brioni. The stitching is... Looks very luxurious. That's how Chamath knew, right? Chamath, how'd you figure out the stitching?
It's just how it lays with the collar.
To be honest with you, it's the button catch. Brioni has a very specific style of button catches. If you don't know what that means, it's because you're a fucking ignorant malcontent yourself.
I'm looking it up right now. Right.
Rain Man, David Sack.
And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you guys.
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Chapter 2: What are the implications of AI doomerism?
All right, everybody, the All In Summit is going into its fourth year, September 7th through 9th. And the goal is, of course, to have the world's most important conversations. Go to allin.com slash yada, yada, yada to join us at the summit. All right. It's a lot on the docket, but there's kind of a very unique thing going on in the world, David. Everybody knows about AI doomerism.
Basically, people who are concerned, rightfully so, that AI could have some you know, significant impacts on the world. Dario Amodei said he could see employment spike to 10 to 20% in the next couple of years. They're 4% now, as we've always talked about here. He told Axios that AI companies and government needs to stop sugarcoating what's coming.
He expects a mass elimination of jobs across tech, finance, legal, and consulting. Okay, that's a debate we've had here. and entry-level workers will be hit the hardest. He wants lawmakers to take action and more CEOs to speak out. Polymarket thinks regulatory capture via this AI safety bill is very unlikely. The U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025, currently stands at a 13% chance.
But, Zach, you wanted to discuss this because it seems like there is... More at work than just a couple of technologists with, I think we'd all agree, there are legitimate concerns about job destruction or job and employment displacement that could occur with AI. We all agree on that. We're seeing robo-taxis start to hit the streets.
I don't think anybody believes that being a cab driver is going to exist as a job 10 years from now. So there seems to be something here about AI doomerism, but it's being taken to a different level by a group of people, maybe with a different agenda, yeah?
Well, first of all, let's just acknowledge that there are concerns and risks associated with AI. It is a profound and transformative technology. And there are legitimate concerns about where am I lead? I mean, the future is unknown, and that can be kind of scary.
Now, that being said, I think that when somebody makes a pronouncement that says something like 50% of white-collar jobs are going to be lost within two years, that's a level of specificity that I think is just unknowable and is more associated with an attempt to grab headlines. And to be frank, if you go back and look at
Anthropix announcement or Dario's announcement, there is a pattern of trying to grab headlines by making the most sensationalist version of what could be a legitimate concern. If you go back three years ago, they created this concern that AI models could be used to create bioweapons.
And they showed what was supposedly a sample, I think, of claw generating an output that could be used by a bioterrorist or something like that. And on the basis of that, it actually got a lot of play. And in the UK... Rishi Sunak got very interested in this cause, and that led to the first AI safety summit at Bletchley Park.
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Chapter 3: How does AI affect job displacement and creation?
Perfect. So there are people who are doing this for nefarious reasons is, I guess, where you're sort of getting at here. It's a way to pump up the market. No, it's not nefarious at all.
It's smart. It's smart. If you fall for it, it's up to you.
Yeah. Okay. Well, there's also an industrial complex, according to some folks that are backing this. If you've heard of effective altruism, that was like this movement of a bunch of I don't know, I guess they consider themselves intellectual sacks.
And they were kind of backing a large swath of organizations that I guess we would call in the industry astroturfing, or what do they call it when you make so many of these organizations that they're not real in politics and flooding the zone, perhaps. So if you were to look at this article here, Nick, I think you have the AI existential risk article. industrial complex graphic there.
It seems like a group of people, according to this article, have backed to the tune of 1.6 billion, a large number of organizations to scare the bejesus out of everybody and make YouTube videos, TikToks, and they've made a map of it.
There's some key takeaways here from that article where it says here that It's an inflated ecosystem. There's a great deal of redundancy, same names, acronyms, logos with only minor changes, same extreme talking points, same group of people just with different titles, same funding source.
There's a funding source called Open Philanthropy, which was funded by Dustin Moskowitz, who is one of the Facebook billionaires. Chamath, you worked with him, right? I mean, he was, wasn't he like Zuck's roommate at Harvard or something? And he's one of the first engineers who made a lot of money.
So he's an EA and he funded this group called Open Philanthropy, which then has become the feeder for essentially all of these other organizations, which are almost different fronts to basically the same underlying EA ideology.
And what's interesting is that the guy who set this up for Dustin, Holden Karnofsky, who is a major effective altruist and was doling out all the money, he's married to Dario's sister. And she's, I guess, associated with EA, and she was one of the co-founders of Anthropic. So these are not coincidences. I mean, the reality is there's a very specific ideological and political agenda here.
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Chapter 4: What is the relationship between AI and venture capital?
of which Sam Bankman-Fried is the most notable member, but which I think Dustin Mosfitz is now the main funder. There's the Biden administration and like the key staffers, and then you've got Anthropic. And it's a very tightly wound network. Now, why does this matter? Well, let's get, yeah, also the goals I think is- Yes, well, the goal, like I said, is global compute governance.
It's basically establishing national and then international regulations of AI, right?
But they would claim, let's just pause here for a minute, they would claim the reason they're doing it, and so we'll say if we believe this or not, but They are concerned about job destruction in the short term. They're also concerned, as science fiction as it is, that the AI, when we get to like a sort of generalized superintelligence, is going to kill humanity, that this is a non-zero chance.
Elon has said this before. They've sort of taken it to almost like a certainty. We're going to have so many of these general intelligences.
Isn't it odd that they only believe that when they're raising money?
Well, that's what I'm sort of getting at. I think they believe it all the time, but maybe the press releases are time for the fundraisers. But yet they're building a really great product, right? Yeah, look, I mean... It is a great product. Claude kicks ass. I'm more interested in the political dimension of this. I'm not bashing a specific product or company.
But look, I think that there is some non-zero risk of AI growing into a super intelligence that's beyond our control. They have a name for that. They call it X-risk or existential risk. I think it's very hard to put a percentage on that. I'm willing to acknowledge that is a risk. I think about that all the time, and I do think we should be concerned about it.
But there's two problems, I think, with this approach. Number one is X risk is not the only kind of risk. I would say that China winning the AI race is a huge risk. I don't really want to see a CCP AI running the world.
And if you hobble our own innovation, our own AI efforts in the name of stomping out every possibility of X risk, then you probably end up losing the AI race to China because they're not going to abide by those same regulations. So again, you can't optimize for solving only one risk while ignoring all the others.
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Chapter 5: How is AI influencing global governance and regulation?
So I'm quite convinced that prior to Donald Trump winning the election, we were on a path of global compute governance where two or three big AI companies were gonna be anointed as the winners, and the quid pro quo is that they were gonna infuse those AI models with woke values. And there was plenty of evidence for that. You look at the policies, you look at the models.
This was not a theoretical concern. This was real. And I think the only reason why we've moved off of that trajectory is because of Trump's election. But we could very easily be moved back onto that trajectory.
If you were to look at all three opinions here and put them together, they could all be true at the same time. You've got a number of people, some might call useful idiots, some might call just, you know, people with God complexes who believe they know how the world should operate. Effective altruism kind of falls into that.
oh, we can make a formula, that's their kind of idea, where we can tell you where to put your money, rich people, in order to create the most good and, you know, we're these enlightened individuals with the best view of the world. They might be, who knows? Maybe they're the smartest kids in the room, but they're kind of delusional.
The second piece I'll do here is, I think you're absolutely correct, Chamath, that there are people who have economic interests who are then using those useful idiots and or delusional people with God complexes to serve their need, which is to be one of the three winners and then sack them. inherent to all of that is they have a political ideology. So why not use these
people with delusions of grandeur in order to secure the bag for their companies, for their investments, and secure their candidates into office so that they can block further people from getting H-100s, because they literally want to- By the way, that's the part that's very smart about what they're doing, because it's not like they're illiquid.
They're full of liquidity in the sense that you're bringing in people that are very technically capable. And you're setting up these funding rounds where a large portion goes right back out the door via secondaries. And so there's all these people that are making money having this worldview.
And so to your point, Jason, it's going to cement that worldview, and then they are going to propagate it even more aggressively into the world. So I think the threshold question is, should you fear government overregulation, or should you fear autocomplete? And I would say you should not be so afraid of the autocomplete right now.
It may get so good that it's an AGI, but right now it's an exceptionally good autocomplete.
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Chapter 6: What challenges do companies face in adopting AI?
I mean, you know. Freiburg, I want to come back around again because I respect your opinion on, you know, how close we are to turning certain corners, especially in science. So I understand big picture, you believe that the opportunity will be there.
Hey, we got people out of fields, you know, in the agricultural revolution, we put them into factories, industrial revolution, then we went to this information revolution. So your position is we will have a similar transition, and it'll be okay. But
Do you not believe that the speed, because we've talked about this privately and publicly on the pod, that this speed, the velocity at which these changes are occurring, you would agree, are faster than the industrial revolution, much faster than the information revolution. So let's one more time talk about job displacement.
And I think the real concern here for a group of people who are buying into this ideology is is specifically unions, job displacement. This is something the EU cares about. This is something the Biden administration cares about.
If truck drivers lose their jobs, just like we went to bat previously for coal miners, and there were only 75,000 or 150,000 in the country at the time, but it became the national dialogue. Oh my God, the coal miners. How fast is this going to happen? One more time on drivers specifically.
Okay, coders, you think there'll be more code to write, but driving, there's not going to be more driving to be done. So is this time different in terms of the velocity of the change and the job displacement in your mind, Friedberg?
The velocity is greater, but the benefit will be faster. So the benefit of the industrial revolution, which ultimately drove lower price products and broader availability of products through manufacturing, was one of the key outputs of that revolution, meaning that we created a consumer market that largely didn't exist prior.
Remember, prior to the Industrial Revolution, if you wanted to buy a table or some clothes, they were handmade. They were kind of artisanal. Suddenly, the Industrial Revolution unlocked the ability to mass produce things in factories.
And that dropped the cost and the availability and the abundance of things that everyone wanted to have access to, but they otherwise wouldn't have been able to afford. So suddenly, everyone could go and buy blankets and clothes and canned food and all of these incredible things that started to come out of this Industrial Revolution that happened at the time.
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Chapter 7: How do entry-level jobs fit into the AI landscape?
And that's what a lot of journalists and commentators and fear mongerers do is they miss that other side.
Got it. Well said, Friedberg. Well said.
I think I've heard Satya turn this question around about job loss, saying, well, do you believe that GDP is going to grow by 10% a year? Because what are we talking about here?
In order to have the kind of disruption that you're talking about, where, I don't know, 10% to 20% of knowledge workers end up losing their jobs, AI is going to be such a profound force that it's going to have to create GDP growth like we've never seen before.
That's right.
So it's easier for people to say, oh, well, 20% of people are going to lose their jobs. But wait, we're talking about a world where the economy is growing 10% every year. Do you actually believe that's going to happen?
That's more income for everyone. That's new jobs being created. It's an inevitability. We've seen this in every revolution. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, 60% of Americans worked in agriculture. And when the tractor came around and factories came around, those folks got to get out of doing manual labor in the fields where they were literally tilling the fields by hand.
And they got to go work in a factory where they didn't have to do manual labor to move things. Yeah, they did things in the factory with their hands, but it wasn't about grunt work in the field all day in the sun. And it became a better standard of living. It became new jobs.
It became a five-day work week. It went from a seven-day work week to five.
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Chapter 8: What future trends in AI should we prepare for?
None of these things actually would prevent the most existential risks that we're talking about.
They don't sign for alignment. They don't sign for the kill switch.
Yeah, when someone actually figures out how to solve that problem, I'm all ears. Look, I'm not cavalier about these risks. I understand that they exist, but I'm not in favor of the fear mongering. I'm not in favor of giving all this power to the government before we even know how to solve these problems.
Chamath, you did a tweet about entry-level jobs being toast. So I think there is a nuance here, and both parties could be correct. I think the job destruction is happening as we speak. I'll just give one example and then drop to you, Chamath. One job in startups that's not driving a car or super entry-level was people would hire consultants to do recruitment and to write job descriptions.
Now, I was at a dinner last night talking to a bunch of founders here in Singapore, and I said, How many people have used AI to write a job description? Everybody's hand went up. I said, how many of you with that job description, was that job description better than you could have written or any consultant? And they all said, yes, 100% AI is better at that job.
That was a job, a high-level HR recruitment job or an aspect of its act. So that was half the job, a third of the job, to your point. The chores are being automated. So I do think we're going to see entry-level jobs, Chamath. The ones that get people into an organization, maybe they're going away. And was that your point of your tweet, which we'll pull up right here?
If a GPT is a glorified autocomplete, how did we used to do glorified autocomplete in the past? It was with new grads. New grads were our autocomplete. And to your point, the models are good enough that it effectively allows a person to rise in their career without the need of new grad grist for the mill, so to speak.
So I think the reason why companies aren't hiring nearly as many new grads is that the The folks that are already in a company can do more work with these tools. And I think that that's a very good thing. So you're generally going to see OPEX as a percentage of revenue shrink naturally. And you're going to generally see revenue per employee go up naturally.
But it's going to create a tough job market for new grads in the established organizations. And so what should new grads do? They should probably steep themselves in the tools and go to younger companies or start a company. I think that's the only solution for them.
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