All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
Fri, 02 May 2025
(0:00) The Besties welcome Box's Aaron Levie and Flexport's Ryan Petersen! (4:05) Is Sacks back? (8:19) Reflecting on Trump's first 100 days (28:16) Global trade disruption, how businesses are dealing with tariffs (49:14) Amazon flip-flops on its tariff pricing feature, national security issues (1:04:13) AI agents, 1,000,000X'ing AI, and more Follow Aaron Levie: https://x.com/levie Follow Ryan Petersen: https://x.com/typesfast Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_loop https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/biden-warns-risk-nuclear-armageddon-highest-cuban-missile-crisis-rcna51146 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/30/world/europe/us-ukraine-military-war-takeaways.html https://x.com/Molson_Hart/status/1915248938753392642 https://x.com/SecScottBessent/status/1917697018551754802 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/us/politics/trump-amazon-tariffs-prices.html https://x.com/chamath/status/1908239828283777393 https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-plots-charging-20-000-a-month-for-phd-level-agents?rc=pxkrxo https://manus.im https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/benchmark-invests-chinese-startup-behind-manus-ai-agent?rc=pxkrxo https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025?tid=1746130417369
Chapter 1: What has happened during Trump's first 100 days?
I'm going home. And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you guys. Queen of Kinwa.
I'm going home.
All right, everybody, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. We're back, we're back, and what an amazing panel we have today with us. Ryan Peterson, friend of the pod, is back on the show. He's the CEO of Flexport. How are you doing, Ryan? Did you get any skiing in this year? I know you like to ski in the deep powder like me.
I tried, man, but it was a busy year for work, and I got two little kids. I did a few days.
Okay. So you're, oh, yes, we all forgot. You gave control of your company to somebody. It got a little shaky, got a little contentious, and then you took the reins back. How has it been being back in the pilot seat?
Oh, that was a year and a half ago. So it's a distant memory for in Flexport time. That's like a decade. We've, yeah, really had an amazing run. Although these tariffs, I mean, I guess that's why you guys invited me on. These tariffs have kind of made a lot of, created a lot of new uncertainty in the Flexports world.
OK, so we'll definitely get into that. And of course, fan favorite back for his fourth appearance on the pod.
I was so first of all, I saw the comment. I saw the comments last time I was on. I'm officially not a fan favorite, but glad to be back on. And I will be I will be representing free markets in in this in this version.
What do the comments say about you?
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Chapter 2: How are tariffs disrupting global trade?
I call balls and strikes.
What are you talking about?
Let's get started. It's starting already, folks. It's going to be a great episode. Lots of excitement with us again.
I do?
What are you talking about?
You guys said you're buying me out of this thing and I can get the hell out of here.
You know how much my shares are in all inner earth? For the love of God, write a check, Shemoth. Get me the hell out of here.
I just may.
Oh, God. I mean, I'm going to be a terror. If Uber breaks 88, that's my number. 88 is the number. You're all fucked when that happens. And we're getting close. All right. Let's get started here. We have so many topics to get through. With us again, David Sachs. Hey, David, you're doing more episodes now. The audience wants to know.
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Chapter 3: What are Amazon's recent decisions on tariffs?
It's only $500,000 is what I read. Is that true?
That's true for founding members who have additional benefits, but there's also a lower level that's the more reasonable membership level. So I think people are getting a little bit carried away with that number.
Got it. That's what I wanted to clarify, yeah.
Yeah, there's like 10 founding members who have that level, and then there's a lower level for the more average member.
Chamatha, you one of those 10?
Yes. Do you pay more if you have TDS, or how does that work?
TDS premium?
Are we talking about J-Cal specifically, or what are we talking about?
The TDS surcharge? I'm asking for a friend. It's a TDS surcharge. You put the tariff surcharge in the TDS surcharge.
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Chapter 4: How is AI transforming industries today?
I don't think anyone would pay to join that, though. It's the problem, right?
I mean, it's an open bar, that's for sure. Where do you guys meet up in, like, Redwood City?
We actually meet up at the trade ports.
All right, listen, we're 100 days into Trump 2.0. It's just a random 100-day thing, but everybody's talking about it. Everybody's hand-wringing. What has it been like for this first 100 days? How does it compare to Biden? How does it compare to Trump 1.0? 143 executive orders, the most ever in the first 100 days. And they're moving, obviously, at a different pace to be generous.
Major indices are down 7% to 10%. Obviously, this trade war and tariffs, the yield on the 10-year, that's down about 40 basis points. There's a lot going on. Let's go around the horn. Ryan, Aaron, you're our guests. What's your take on the first 100 days? Is it what you expected, good, bad, and otherwise? Wins and fails, everything.
I'll go first. I think it's a whirlwind. I mean, if you look at the John Boyd, the fighter pilot has this concept of the OODA loop, which is observe, orient, decide, and act. And the concept is that if you're in dogfighting, if you're able to maneuver through those OODA loops at a faster pace than your competition, they get disoriented and don't know what to do. And I think that...
That's got to be how Democrats in Washington and maybe mainstream Republicans in Washington, certainly journalists are all feeling this. Like there's the Trump administration takes action. And before anybody can respond to that, they have already done like four more things. And you're like, wait, I forgot to actually follow up on the other thing that they did that I didn't like.
And so it's pretty disorienting if you're if you're trying to they can't find a line to fall back to and go, hey, we're going to push back against this policy because they're already moving on to the next one, the next one. So that's like my high-level interpretation. Obviously, I come at it from a trade angle.
I think everybody knew that Trump was going to be – he told us during the campaign that the most beautiful word in the English language is tariff. Don't tell him it's an Arabic word, but the most beautiful word in the English language. And so we knew that was coming. I think that the suddenness of it all caught people by surprise. I mean, they told us April 1st, April 2nd would be Liberation Day.
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Chapter 5: What are the implications of tariffs for small businesses?
I'd get rid of Navarro immediately. And you would basically say, you know, mea culpa, like, oops. And like, obviously, you need to like land that with some really cool trade deals that make everybody kind of feel happy. And you basically say, you know what, like, let's go back to the first two days of Trump, which is let's announce massive deals. We're bringing manufacturing here with Stargate.
We're doing TSMC. We're building NVIDIA chips. We're going to do a deal, which is you get like 5% tax. If you build in America, and so you just stimulate a manufacturing boom in the country, you know, we incentivize, you know, automation across the manufacturing, we use that as a competitive weapon to go and compete with with the sort of lower cost labor that happens internationally.
We find every incentive and tool we can. We deregulate. You allow people to build these plants. And so you don't have to go through the three-year EPA process. You just accelerate from this position. And you see it all as upside.
And so then business leaders, if you go talk to the Fortune 500 company that actually has to build anything right now, you give them a path to say, listen, we're going to help you transition away from your current supply chain. And we're going to make it even more competitive and more compelling in America. to do that. You know, there's a reason that Elon builds in America.
Like, like he is, he's actually made it be more effective to, to be able to, to, you know, bring automation to manufacturing, to be able to, to build locally, but he wasn't forced to do that. And so, so I would just, I would argue like you, you use as many carrots as possible.
In some surgical areas, and Chamath, I've heard your points about the like, you know, chips, pharma, you know, AI, like in those surgical areas, we get tough where necessary. And if we have to do, you know, a couple sort of very surgical tariffs, you know, to kind of make people move the direction that we want, that's totally fine.
But I mean, it's like even arguing the premise is hard because we act like it's like countries that are screwing us But actually, businesses are independently making decisions about where they want their supply chain to exist. In a free market, they've made that decision.
They don't need the government to tell them where are they supposed to or where are they allowed to have their supply chain operate. That ends up with just lots of economic distortions that everybody on the right would have called the left socialists for trying to kind of implement central planning around supply chains. So that's my piece.
Well, what do you think, Chamath, here of this sort of reframing slash off-ramp and sort of maybe the positive spin on it? Hey, if you want to make t-shirts, you know, you want to make commodity items, have at it. Free trade, you know, reciprocal tariffs, great. Checkbox there. But here is a series of incentives and a path forward to do the advanced stuff, to do robotics, etc.
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Chapter 6: How can businesses navigate the new tariff landscape?
Aaron, where you are right is My expectation is it's my job to stay informed, okay? As a CEO of my company, I try to stay informed. And you're right. It is hard because sometimes I find myself hunting and pecking to find the things that matter. But I do put a bunch of that responsibility into the lap of the people that are supposed to actually report the facts. They can choose.
They didn't have to run that article about Elon, which turned out to be total bullshit and horseshit. on the front page of the Wall Street Journal, they could have talked about what Ryan just mentioned as the first article and said, here completely changes your ROIC and ROE calculations for 90% of the S&P 500. That was not the article they chose to write and to publish.
But I also think it comes back to my original point around the UDOT loops that they're the Trump is the administration is running these very tight. Hey, let's take an action. Let's see what happens. Let's see the reaction and then take another action.
And Washington's used to doing all these committees that plan everything for five years or something or whatever, 18 months, and then roll it out slowly. And they're going, Hey, let's roll it out. Oh crap. We're about to cause this huge problem in the auto manufacturers. And they're all telling us they're going to go bankrupt. Okay. Yeah. Three days later, they push an update to that.
It feels chaotic.
Yeah, to summarize, Ryan and Aaron, your position, so we can keep going through the docket. Hey, a little less shock and awe, maybe a little more predictability, a little crisper communication. Chamath, I think your position is, hey, maybe the mainstream media can play a better role here in focusing us on what matters.
That wouldn't be my takeaway. So, yeah. Okay.
What's your takeaway?
I mean, like, zero shock and awe. Like, not a little less. Like, my strategy would be 100% different. Actually, Scott Bestin has an incredible podcast from, like, September of last year. And he basically said, you know, Bidenomics got it all wrong. And I was, like, listening to it. I was like, oh, okay, actually, this is kind of cool. Like, he basically says, deregulate the U.S.,
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Chapter 7: What are the economic impacts of Bidenomics?
He was.
They were having Mai Tais and they were talking about this specific issue.
All the people who suddenly know what the perfect plan is and how to perfectly execute it, no barrel rolls, had nothing to say about this topic for 25 years. And all of a sudden, they've come forward with their perfect plans.
I would say that's victory for Trump. The best thing of all of this is you've got the liberals embracing Milton Friedman and their backgrounds on there. I love it.
Yes. All right.
Listen, we're going to agree to disagree. We're going to agree to disagree on this one.
The liberals love the stock market.
Listen, Saks, Kamala's coming on next week. We're going to make some cocktails. It's going to be wonderful. We'll ask her some direct questions about it, but I want to talk about AI agents. 2025, shaping up to be the year of AI agents. Tons to talk about here. OpenAI is planning to charge between $2 and $20K a month for different levels of AI agencies. Would be...
basically cron jobs, they would run in the background and do things for your company that humans are doing right now. You may have heard of this agentic tool. Again, agentic is just a fancy word for agent, which is a fancy role for word for like a cron job that just runs. No, perpetually.
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