The Host
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
All right, everybody, welcome back to the number one science, politics, technology and business podcast in the world for five years running. We're about to hit our fourth anniversary here, episode 200 is coming up. And a bunch of lunatic fans are getting together, you can join them all in.com slash meetups. Holy cow, we got the domain name All In? Fantastic. Go to allin.com slash meetups.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
And I am of course, your executive producer for life and some moderate podcast. And if I may just a tiny plug. If you're a founder, we are having our ninth cohort of founder University. It's a 12 week course I teach on starting companies. What are you doing?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
The only good news, Freiburg, is that now people are building the first couple of floors in high rises in Miami and homes on stilts with concrete and with resistant, you know, saltwater resistant material. So there is a counter to this. So we might...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Yeah, so it might actually be an opportunity to upgrade all these homes to resistant ones using another set of technologies. But the bailout is really interesting too, Sax, because Florida's got a lot of electoral college votes, doesn't it? Like, I hate to bring this back to politics, but, you know, promising people bailouts is how these politicians seem to be getting votes these days.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I'm just giving a quick plug for Found University.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
And just for background, FEMA manages something called the NFIP, National Flood Insurance Plan. And it's historically about 50% cheaper than private flood insurance. They have 4.7 million active policies providing 1.3 trillion in coverage. But they instituted a new risk assessment system and that caused rates to increase and
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Yeah, it's because of all this, the policies have decreased over the last couple years, meaning less people have flood insurance at the same time that these things are getting worse. And so, yeah, this is a really tough issue. I wonder if this is an opportunity, Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
if you think about historically how insurance worked, it worked in communities where people would help each other out and do barn raising kind of events when somebody had a problem. So if we just put on our entrepreneurial hats here,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
If you look at the cost of insurance, if 100 different people bundle the cost of their homes together, put money into some sort of platform, like an Uber, Airbnb marketplace, and there was some management structure here of self-insurance, because I know some people are doing self-insurance for healthcare at their companies for this kind of thing. Do you think there's going to be a new...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
business opportunity here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Yeah. And Sachs, there's a movement right now A lot of people, even of means, are renting their homes. And so in the real estate market, what are your thoughts on that? Just renting versus buying now becoming something that people in the top half of homeowners or potential homeowners are now electing to not own their home and rent. Have you been monitoring that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
at the high end of the range that people were running well if you think about it like there's there seems to be a cap when you have a 10 million dollar home of what you can possibly rent it for and it's it's the the prices are now making more sense to keep more sense to keep your money in the market or in other places and then rent i'm just hearing are you are you long real estate in florida or coastal california if you could or do you treat them differently
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
For Glue.ai.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Once again, Sachs makes a great trade. Pretty awesome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Right. That's awesome for glue AI. And if you haven't tried SuperGut, Freedberg's team literally made an advertisement with me talking about SuperGut and didn't tell me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Well done, Sachs. Just like...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I lost a place to stay. I mean, the yacht access alone, being able to get out on the bay and get on a boat, the ski dudes, all this great stuff. All right, let's keep the Freiburg train going here. Huge news, AlphaFold creators just won a Nobel Prize in Chemistry. Two members of Google's DeepMind AI research team, Demis Hassabis and John Jumper, received this year's Nobel Prize in Chemistry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
They both work for Google's DeepMind, as you know. And Freeberg, again, all in getting there first, explained what AlphaFold was back on episode 14 in December of 2020. That was almost four years ago. Freeberg, maybe you could explain.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I believe you did. We'll go check the receipts using podcast AI search engine.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Well, it's kind of like winning Sundance or Cannes. You win the Palme d'Or, you become a favorite to win at the Oscars, right, in the Academy Awards. So that's actually interesting. The regional or more industry-centric award could lead to the next one. So, Freeberg, just explain to us why this is so important before we go on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Okay, well, there you have it. So go to founder.university to apply for my 12-week program.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
What do you think, Freeberg? Explain to the audience why this is important and what's transpired since we talked about it four years ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Yeah. It would use people's machines and extra CPU, like the SETI at home project to- Precisely, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
More Xanax to deal with your panic attacks? All right, let's get started, everybody. Enough of the shenanigans. Hurricane season is... Upon us, as Freeburg had predicted, Hurricane Milton made landfall on Wednesday evening along the west coast of Florida, as many of you know. It's been downgraded.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
not to virtue signal here, but those are plus size proteins. Now free, but they don't like being called chunky, plus size proteins, plus size. One, one really difficult technical question for your free bird. Is there any way for you to take this amazing breakthrough and make sacks interested in it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Is there any possible vector here for it to relate to sacks and get him off his BlackBerry right now? Blackberry. I think he's playing chess with Teo and J.D. Vance is watching them play chess. I think that's what's going on right now. It's really hard. I mean, the poor audience here is watching Zach looking down. All right, let's keep this train moving here. Enough of the shenanigans.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I think in the group chat, Chamath, you had an interesting, hey, maybe there should be a computer science award. for a Nobel Computer Science Award.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
All computer-based. Yeah, all computer-based. And in related news, Benioff just nominated himself. for excellence in CRM management. So congratulations to Benioff on nominating himself for a Nobel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
It started as a Category 5, potentially, then a Category 3, and then it looks like it's a Category 1 now. So I guess these things are quite random. Leading up to Milton, though, 6 million Floridians across 15 counties were ordered to evacuate. That's a lot of people moving out. And it was a pretty powerful storm. It ripped off the roof of the Tropicana Field in Tampa.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Benioff has done so much for philanthropy. Just ask him. If you... Oh, my God. Dude, he's doing the best he can.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I mean... Okay, give me a funnier Nobel. Go ahead. Benioff runs a 300 billion market cap company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Now you're piling on. Anybody coming to Dreamforce 2025? Okay, let's move on. Sorry. Anyways, leave Benioff alone, G. Leave Benioff.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I'd like to shout out my Jaders. They're just jokes, folks. I love you, Mark. I'm penny off. Come on the pod, Zach.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Why? Well, he just... Anyway, we'll get to it later.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Just look at Sachs' replies. Community with shared values. Hey, man, if I can get 25% of those ticket sales, I'm in. Let's go. All right. Let's keep the train moving here. We have an update on the DOJ's antitrust suit with Google. Looks like they're going for the breakup, as Chamath predicted. You remember the Bloomberg report back in August. We covered it in episode 192.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Google was found liable for maintaining a monopoly in search and digital ads. Now the DOJ is working on the remedy, right? Okay, they're guilty. So now comes time for the remedy. And the DOJ is quote is from Bloomberg, considering asking a federal judge to force Google to sell off parts of its business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
So far, the death toll is at four, but it's expected to rise, sadly. And just two weeks ago, Hurricane Helene swept through six southern states, killing over 220 people, tragically, devastating western North Carolina, and entire towns were wiped out. These are also, beyond the tragic human losses, are economically staggering in terms of the losses.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
And according to this filing, the DOJ is specifically considering structural remedies that would prevent Google from using products such as Chrome, Google Play, that's the App Store on Android, and Android itself to advantage Google search. 32 page document released by the DOJ lays out several options and we'll go through them and talk about them here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
The obvious one, terminating Google's exclusive agreements with hardware companies like Apple. They're the default search engine there for $30 or $40 billion a year. Samsung, that's a layup. Separating Chrome and Android, my God, that would be drastic, ripping that out of the Google ecosystem, prohibiting certain kinds of data tracking. That's a layup as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Or other behavioral and structural changes for the company. I'm going to pause there, Friedberg, and get your thoughts on this as a former Googler and you interviewed. Sergey at the summit, but I don't think we talked to Sergey about this, because obviously, he would not be able to talk about it. So what are your thoughts here on a potential remedy?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
And hey, subscribe to our YouTube channel. We're going to do some sort of crazy event for the million subscriber party. We're like 300,000 away, gentlemen. This is nuts, huh? Can you imagine this thing made it to 200 episodes?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
You kind of know this one. Pretty good with these predictions. Tell us we'll be sitting here five years from now, what will have occurred?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
AccuWeather estimating the total economic damage could be between $145 and $160 billion from Helen. And Moody estimates the property damage alone could be as high as $26 billion. Tons to get into here. FEMA, Starlink, saving the day, tons of stuff. But Freeberg, back on episode 182, you predicted this would happen. What's causing all this?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I think that's a really good point. observation there about the timeline of this, because if you look at this, I have started now, and I know many people are starting their search journey on Claude and ChatGPT every day. I'm doing 30, 40, 50 queries and follow-ups per day. I force my entire team to do that as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
And so just as there's an actual viable competitor to Google, this action has reached, I don't know, the halfway mark, this is going to wind up being completely meaningless sacks. If chat GPT does build a viable competitor coexister that siphons off search, am I wrong here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I have one final thought here, a piece of advice for Sergey and the team over there. And I told Sergey directly, they have to get good at making apps. To go use ChatGPT, you take out the app and it's a wonderful, beautiful experience. When you go try to figure out how to use Gemini, it's like shoehorned into search results. And then it's like some subdomain. That's why people aren't using it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Go buy the domain in chat.com and make a dedicated app just for Gemini. And make it kick ass.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Google, you suck at apps.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
And let's just start with the science angle, I guess, before we get into the other political and insurance issues.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
And selling YouTube would be the ultimate. I know that the ad networks you pointed out for your blog are connected, but if they distributed They spun out. I'll give you something about the ad thing. Can you imagine $500 billion going into Google's coffers in YouTube shares? They would have $500 billion in cash, Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
You know, this is a great setup for M&A. It's a great setup for IPOs starting to look like. And this is a multi-administration case that's been going, right? I think this started under Trump, went into Biden, and is now going to continue on to Trump or Harris. So what are your thoughts here, Sax?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Absolutely. I am going to be printing money in a Trump administration. It is going to be obscene how many M&A deals and IPOs are going to occur. There is such a huge backlog. But I do think the Democrats want to get this moving as well. And I was talking to Reid Hoffman and you and Peter Thiel in the Illuminati meeting, and they voted 190 to 2 to replace Lena Kahn in the Illuminati meeting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Chamath, why didn't you make the Illuminati meeting last week? I'm shocked that you weren't there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Oh, really? They don't understand that I'm joking about the Illuminati?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Shipelsha?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Chamath, it looks like between the time we mentioned it on the pod, it's actually happening. Here it is. The jader's ball is happening. There it is. Lena Kahn, David Sax.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Because you're a headliner. You're organizing. I think you're the host.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Look, there's Zuck Nasty and there's Palmer Lucky. You guys don't know this bit from Chappelle? The Hater's Ball from Chappelle? Oh my god, it's the funniest bit On Chappelle's show, it's literally... I mean, I saw a lot of Chappelle's show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Just show the real picture, Nick. On the Chappelle's show, they have all of these pimps who have a yearly convention, which is their player haters wall.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
And all they do is sit there with like a toothpick in and they hate on each other and make fun of each other. I've seen this. It is the funniest bit in the history of the Chappelle's show. All right, let's keep the train moving here. CRV is... giving back or maybe not calling down 275 million from their LPs, Charles River Ventures, shout out to my pal, George Zachary and Greek brother from CRV.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Historically, they invest in early stage startups, they did DoorDash, Airtable, Twitter back in the day. They had two funds that they raised back in 2022 billion dollar early stage fund and a 500 million growth fund. Sometimes people call that an opportunity fund or a select fund.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
The New York Times reported CRV is going to give back about half of that $275 million to investors or technically probably not call it down. The four partners at CRV gave an exclusive to the New York Times. So either getting ahead of this story or maybe, you know, who knows what the motivation here is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
But the reason they gave is that the market conditions for late stage have worsened dramatically and that the valuations are still too high. Yes, the rent is too high. And that there aren't any exit options, as we just talked about, with the administration, no IPOs, no M&A. And that VC map doesn't work in the late stage. So I'll just stop there. There's a bunch of other notes here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Obviously, this isn't the first time this has happened. I think Founders Fund cut the size of its eighth fund in half from $1.8 billion to $900 million. They didn't actually give the capital back to VCs like they're saying CRV did here. Again, I'm not certain if that's what's happened or not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
They put the extra $900 million into its ninth fund if they decide to raise that, which I'm assuming Founders Fund will. Chamath, do you have any thoughts on this, I guess, trend? We got two stories here, so I don't know if it's a trend or not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Peanut butter getting spread a little bit thin there. Any thoughts, Freeberg, on this trend, if we can call it that? Or is this like maybe they're reacting right as the market is changing and valuations are getting more reasonable and the exit opportunities are getting more reasonable? It seems like this was the right reaction two years ago, but maybe it's the wrong reaction now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
What do you think, Freeberg?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
And to just explain this math before I get Sax's thoughts on this, if this was a $500 million fund, let's say they were putting $25 million into each, we'll take management fees out of it, $25 million into each opportunity at a billion dollar valuation, they would own 2.5% obviously of those firms.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
They need to get probably a $30 billion power law exit of 30x SACs in order to just return the fund. There'll be some dilution, obviously, along the way. That's why it's not 20x. And the number of companies that go from a billion to 30 billion per cycle is incredibly low. Uber, Coinbase, Airbnb. It's a really short list, huh, SACs in recent history?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
The Tigers and that sort of cohort, SoftBank, Masayoshi-san.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
They've been right-sized. They're not violently doing, I mean, the Tiger deal is my understanding was they weren't joining the board in a lot of the cases and they were outsourcing the diligence. And that was a pretty violent pace. I don't know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Count them on two hands the last cycle, like I just did. You got Uber, you got Robinhood, you got... Coinbase, Stripe will eventually come out. You got SpaceX. Well, that was two cycles ago.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Moving on, Pew just published some really interesting research on TikTok. If you don't know the Pew study, they've been doing it for decades. It's very well respected and bipartisan or nonpartisan. Four in 10 U.S. adults aged 18 to 29 are now regularly getting their news from TikTok. Here's some charts for you to take a look at.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
As you can see, the younger generation is really spending a lot of time on tik tok and getting a lot of their news there. I know this because, yeah, I've talked to a bunch of kids about this. And people that use tik tok 52% are regularly getting their news from the platform. And that number has skyrocketed compared to other social platforms. Take a look at this chart.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Here's x 59% of people say they get their news at x, it's really a news platform. So that makes total sense. You look at Facebook, it's, you know, 48% right now, Reddit 33%, YouTube 37% in 2024, Instagram 40%, but TikTok 52, up from 22%. So it's no longer just dancing. And this is the reason I think many people in the government
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
were concerned about the attack vector that the CCP would have in the United States since they still control the company. For services like Snapchat, LinkedIn, and WhatsApp, and Nextdoor, it's below 20, below 30% get their news from there. There's your Truth Social there, SACS, 57% of people get news there and Rumble, 48%. So what's your takeaway from this, just SACS?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
looking at it and this impact that TikTok has, is this concerning on a national security level since the algorithm's a black box and you could tweak it if you really wanted to, to really change sentiment and young people are obviously very impressionable on this platform and they're big users of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Okay, that's posting and the main reason, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
This is new information.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Who's your favorite? Are you a Hulk Hogan guy? Are you an Undertaker guy? Vince McMahon?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Wait, wait, hold on. Have you gone to a wrestling event in person?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I'm a big Andy Kaufman wrestling fan. That was my only interest is when Andy Kaufman came in there. And trolled them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
It was the late 80s. Remember he was on David Letterman with Jerry Waller. And he comes to a wrestling match, Sax, in the South.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Right. So he goes there and he gets in the ring and he says, all of you rednecks, I want to show you some new inventions. This is called soap and this is called the washcloth and you use it to clean yourself. And he's just mocking the Southern accent and Jerry Lala. I remember Jerry Lala smacks him on Letterman. Oh, it's the greatest bit ever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Let me pause there for a second just to make sure people understand what you're saying. Emissions from cargo ships block sunlight, which then of course reduces the heat absorbed by the oceans. And so we're now choosing between pollution of the air or overheating of the oceans. Am I correct in summarizing that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
You also had probably like some state fairs or, you know, like best goats, best sheep or something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I mean, the intergender champion, Andy Kaufman.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I don't watch wrestling. Okay. Very good. And TikTok survey, anything? Where are you now? Any thoughts? Looks like they gathered some reasonable data. Okay. There you go. There's, there's your hard hitting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I negotiated it. I got it. It took me two years and I got a sick deal on it. I don't even want to say because I, you know, I don't want to change it, but I think I got it. Don't say, I'll just say you bleep it out. I got it for, And that's a million dollar domain, just so we all know. Five letters in the dictionary. So good for branding.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Maybe it's 100% certain that the CCP is using it because they this people have tracked already journalists using it. So if they've already done it, it's 100%. I don't know about the passive listening, but any thoughts on 50% plus of young people getting their news here? Chamath, any news on that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I mean, obviously, we don't have evidence that it's being used currently to manipulate people, but it's over 50% of young people are now getting their news there. Or say they're getting their news there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
There are a lot of people who think this show is a TikTok show. And they don't know it's a big show.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
It probably wouldn't swing an election, but it would cause chaos. And we just had the Southern District of New York Target, that Russian, Russia Today was giving $10 million to four podcasters. They didn't even know they were getting paid by the Russians. They just picked them because they liked their opinions. And they gave them $100,000 an episode to promote pro-Russian positions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Yeah, the goal is not to win any specific argument. It's to create mistrust in the entire news ecosystem, in the information system, so that people give up trying to figure out what the truth is. And that's what the Russians and the KGB- I think the mainstream media is doing that on their own.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
As are the Russians paying off podcasters.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Great question. Great question. May I answer it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Not a conspiracy theory at all. These were very low-level, mid-tier B, C, D podcasters. If you give them $100,000 per episode, they can spend more money buying cameras, promoting their shows, hiring people. So you're just finding people and dropping money on their heads so they can do more of the same. So it's a very smart strategy, in fact, I think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Yes, it was. It was just more about getting the money to produce more content.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Oh, there's a puppy. Oh, here he goes. Freebird trying to win more people over with his puppy love. Unbelievable. This guy is absolutely ridiculous. Unbelievable. All right, listen, let me give Saks some red meat here. He got he got his little steak ta ta with my Russia Today story. You got your little amuse bouge. And now I give you your tomahawk. You ready, Saks? You want your tomahawk?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
You want it rare? Here it comes. 2024 election update, the betting markets and polling indicate a really tight race, but maybe Trump is surging this week. Polymarket, which is a betting market, has Trump 55 to 45 versus Kamala. Kalshi, another betting market, 52, 48 Trump. Bovada and points bet those are offshore booking and Polly market is also offshore.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
5248 Trump, Nate Silver, friend of the pod. His algorithm has it 5347. Kamala real clear polling. That's an algorithm has Kamala with a two-point lead. New York Times-Siena, Kamala with a three-point lead. Reuters-Ipsos, pretty well-trusted, three-point lead for Kamala. NPR-PBS, Marist poll has Kamala with a two-point lead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
So sport books and betting markets are favoring Trump slightly, while the polls are slightly favoring Kamala. Saks, I sliced it up nice for you. You got nice 10 slices of meat here. Which slice are you going for?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I've never heard of Fabrizio.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Or is it the other way? Is it that her Howard Stern interviews or whatever are causing her to lose votes?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Because I don't know when, I don't have the dates of all these polls versus that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Spanners?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
What does it mean? Brent, what do you call it wrench in the system? You mean like an October surprise? You mean like some crazy turn of events? Okay. Freeberg, any thoughts here? Would you like to Rorschach test this and see what you want in the numbers? Or do you have some objective thoughts here? What do you what's your what's your take?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Oh, yeah. Where we're at in the election. You're pretty open ended here. You can look at the you can make a note on overall what you see between the betting markets and the polls and that disparity. You could just talk generally about where you think we are. You could talk about Kamala on Howard Stern and doing a bunch of interviews with friendlies. Where are you at right now?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
She definitely did the most favorite shows. I wish she would do some challenging shows. I think she's got to do Joe Rogan, All In, and what would be another good podcast for her to do, Jamal, if she really wanted to do the adversarial thing or something more?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Why would she do an adversarial? Just come to All In. Come and have a conversation. Come and have a normal conversation here, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
No, I mean, if you look back on every single presidential-related one we did here, they were all respectful, and they were all conversations. I think the Cuba one dipped, because of both of you, into a bit more of a debate, and it was a lot more crossover than the other ones.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
That's what he wanted. That's his style.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
If you look at all the other ones, I'm trying to think of a moment where it If you look at the other, Dean B. Phillips, Chris Christie, Vivek. Boring, gotta go. Love you guys.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
This has been another amazing episode of the All In podcast. Episode 199. Make sure you go to allin.com slash meetups. Make sure if you're starting a company, you go to founder.university. If you're an engineer, please go to, I'm doing whatever the fuck I please. David Sachs, make sure you go to- Supergut.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
glue ai if you're an engineer and if you like potatoes go to a hollow.com and order your potatoes pre-order a subscription i mean if we're doing assets sell some let's sell some super go 80 90 80 90 go to 80 90 and 80 90 control we'll see everybody next time on the all in bye
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
That's the paradox here, is that it was creating a blocker for sunlight, and to your point, Chamath, exactly. Like, shouldn't we just be going back to what was normal? But at the same time, in the same system, we had heated things up. So this is a multifactored system that we're dealing with Friedberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
And I guess the takeaway from all of this is that we got to be really careful with what we do with the environment, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Ooh, I love it. Exactly, exactly. And you can yum yum. I got you sax.com, didn't I? You have the domain name sax.com. I negotiated that for you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
The origin of this, though, Freeberg, is people have done experiments for decades on trying to control the weather or you know, alter the weather. And they're doing that in the Middle East by seeding clouds and creating more rain. We saw that with the Dubai floods, they said that that might have been caused by overseeding of clouds, which they're doing there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
And then there have been experiments, just to, you know, for the crazy laser people conspiracy there, it's there a sun x, there actually have been experiments with lasers, you know, being shot into hurricanes and storms, correct?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I'm just saying that's the origin of where people are kind of building on this. There have been the amount.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
The amount of teeing it up for you to debunk is what I'm doing here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Oh, the new website?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Oh, can I tell you, if I may-
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
I think a lot of the conspiracy theories are built on actual experiments that happened. This one, Project Storm Fury, I'm sure you know about, was to try to modify hurricanes by putting in some chemicals that would freeze them and dull them. So they're kind of building on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Yeah, break it apart. There have been experiments here with altering weather, altering hurricanes, but that doesn't mean it's Putin, Pelosi, or the Illuminati.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Yeah. It's like a real thing. After four years, we got our shit together. This looks great. Here we go. And I want to give a shout out to Podcast AI, one of our... Remember those fake all in episodes that became a startup podcast AI and they built our website for us. So shout out to the team over there. All right, ladies, let's move on.