Mike Baker

It's Wednesday, the 27th of May.

Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin.

I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage.

All right, let's get briefed.

First up, Russia's battlefield struggles in Ukraine may actually be making Europe more nervous, as officials warn that Putin could become more dangerous if the war remains stuck in a costly stalemate.

Later in the show, Israel appears to be expanding operations deeper into southern Lebanon as the IDF targets Hezbollah's growing drone threat.

But first, today's afternoon spotlight.

Now, the conventional wisdom is that if Russia is struggling in Ukraine, Europe would be safer.

But, according to a new report from the Wall Street Journal, that may not be the case.

Because increasingly, European security officials are beginning to worry that a Russia stuck in a grinding battlefield stalemate may actually become more dangerous, not less.

Over the past several weeks, Moscow has ramped up both its rhetoric and its pressure campaign against countries along NATO's eastern flank.

And not to state the obvious, but the Kremlin's rhetoric is precisely designed to cause this sort of concern and alarm within the EU.

Russian officials recently threatened Latvia after accusing the country of hosting Ukrainian drone operators, claims that Latvian authorities flatly deny.

In Lithuania, air raid alarms reportedly forced government officials into bunkers after suspected Russian drones approached the country's airspace from neighboring Belarus.

Meanwhile, Russia's Ministry of Defense has reportedly published the addresses of companies in several European countries accused of supporting Ukrainian drone production, warning of, quote, unpredictable consequences if support for Kyiv continues.

Now, none of this means Russia is preparing to launch a full scale invasion of NATO territory tomorrow morning.

Of course, European intelligence officials quoted in the report say there are currently no signs that Moscow is massing troops or equipment for an imminent attack outside Ukraine.

Strategically, the stupidity of that move would be on par with the stupidity of Hitler deciding to invade the Soviet Union while already dealing with one front.

But regardless, for the EU, the fear

is that the war in Ukraine may be entering a phase where Russia can no longer easily sustain the current pace of fighting, while also struggling to achieve the kind of decisive breakthrough that Putin has repeatedly promised the Russian public.