The President's Daily Brief
PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 30th, 2024: NATO's Stark Warning Over Moscow's Hybrid Warfare & Hopes For Democracy Dashed In Syria
Tue, 31 Dec 2024
In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin: First, senior NATO officials have issued a stark warning about the growing threat posed by the Kremlin’s “shadow war” against Ukraine’s western allies, which they say risks triggering a wider conflict. Then, Syria’s de facto leader announces it could be years before elections are held, dashing hopes for democracy in the war-torn nation. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What warning did NATO issue regarding Moscow's hybrid warfare?
First, senior NATO officials have issued a stark warning about the growing threat posed by the Kremlin's shadow war against Ukraine's Western allies, which they say risks triggering a wider conflict. Then, Syria's de facto leader announces it could be years before elections are held, dashing hopes for democracy in the near term for the war-torn nation. But first, our afternoon spotlight.
We'll begin in Europe, where NATO leadership is sounding the alarm on Moscow's escalating campaign of hybrid warfare against Kiev's Western allies.
James Apatheride, Deputy Assistant Secretary General of NATO, warned Sky News in a recent interview that there is a, quote, real prospect for an unconventional attack by Russia against the alliance, such as an act of sabotage or arson that could result in mass casualties and put NATO on a path to war.
Apatherai, who is leading efforts in the alliance to better track and deter so-called hybrid attacks, said NATO members must communicate clear red lines and response scenarios to the Putin regime to prevent a broader clash from erupting in Eastern Europe.
As we've been covering here on the PDB, Russia has been waging a campaign of sabotage against allies of Ukraine across Europe since the war began, with attacks escalating in 2024. Russia's shadow campaign involves arson attacks, espionage, cyber attacks, targeted assassinations, and the sabotage of critical infrastructure.
It's aimed at destabilization, spreading panic among the European public, and sowing doubts about supporting Ukraine.
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Chapter 2: What are Russia's tactics in its shadow campaign against Ukraine?
There has been a particular rise in what are called kinetic acts in recent months, such as the suspected sabotage of vital undersea power and data cables, or a plot by Russian agents, first reported in early November, to plant explosives aboard cargo planes bound for the US and Canada.
Apathorite, the NATO official, warned that any one of these acts could end up triggering a broader regional conflict.
Chapter 3: What recent incidents highlight Russia's aggressive actions?
Though it occurred before the war began in Ukraine, he also pointed to an attempt by the Kremlin to kill a Russian double agent and his daughter in the UK back in 2018, which involved using a large batch of Novichok chemical weapon that could have potentially killed thousands of people. Of course,
That attempt on Sergei Skripal and his daughter was just one in a long string of targeted assassinations against Putin's enemies abroad over the years. Another, of course, was the infamous killing of Alexander Litvinenko, who died from polonium poisoning in London. The NATO official said, quote, What really worries me is that one of these attacks will break through in a big way.
There's a real prospect of one of these attacks causing substantial numbers of casualties or very substantial economic damage. He added, quote, End quote. Apatherai said that NATO's 32 member states were already in what he described as a, quote, boiling frog situation. Now, I'm not sure if the term boiling frog translates well across all languages.
He noted that Russian attacks have increased in a way that would have been, quote, utterly unacceptable five years ago, but said the alliance has, well, frankly, gotten used to it, creating a climate that he called, quote, very dangerous. Nordic countries are particularly vulnerable and are already on high alert for potential Russian sabotage of power cables, wind turbines, and gas pipelines.
Chapter 4: How is NATO responding to the threat of hybrid warfare?
As we reported last Friday, an oil tanker from Russia's Shadow Fleet suspected of cutting an undersea power cable and several internet cable lines on Christmas Day on the Baltic Sea is currently under surveillance.
In an effort to not be caught flat-footed by future Russian aggression, NATO is working to update its strategy on hybrid warfare, first written back in 2015, to clearly outline what type of attacks would end up triggering a full-scale military response from the alliance.
Apathorite said, "...what we need to do now is be clearer among ourselves and then decide how we communicate that also to the Russians, that there are no-go areas." Well, he's not the only one growing concerned about the current status quo.
Senior officials in Kyiv are warning that Russia may escalate its hybrid warfare tactics beyond covert acts of sabotage and that NATO must do more to deter Moscow's belligerence before it's too late. On Sunday, the head of Ukraine's presidential office said, "'Impunity breeds permissiveness. This is the moment that requires strong decisions and strong actions.'"
Chapter 5: What did Ukraine's officials say about escalating Russian tactics?
Coming up, it looks like hopes for democracy, at least in the short to mid-term, in Syria might be fading, as the nation's new de facto leader indicates it could be years before elections are held. We'll discuss the implications when we return. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let's talk about trees, shall we? And plants. Oh, and don't forget shrubs.
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Get 20% off your first order when you use promo code Baker, that's B-A-K-E-R, at American-Giant.com. That's 20% off when you use code Baker at American-Giant.com. Welcome back to the Afternoon Bulletin. Bad news for anyone who was hoping democracy would be coming to Syria anytime soon, as de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharah outlined a roadmap that could delay elections by as much as four years.
In an interview Sunday with a Saudi state-owned outlet, Sharab, who leads the Islamist group HTS, provided the most detailed timetable yet for Syria's political future since the group's ousting of the Assad regime earlier this month. The HTS leader revealed that drafting a new constitution alone could take three years, with significant changes expected within a year of its completion.
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