The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 15th, 2025: Trump Calls Putin’s Bluff & Syria Erupts in Violence
Sat, 15 Mar 2025
In this episode of The PDB Situation Report: A major development in the war in Ukraine—Kyiv has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire following high-level talks in Saudi Arabia. But will Russia do the same? We break it all down with Fred Fleitz, former National Security Council Chief of Staff and Vice Chair of the America First Policy Institute's Center for American Security. Syria is on the brink once again. A surge of violence and reports of massacres are pushing the country further into chaos as the fragile government struggles to maintain control. We get expert analysis from David Daoud, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What major development occurred in the Ukraine conflict?
Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. Oh, is it that time of the week again? I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We'll start things off with a major development in the war in Ukraine. After high-level talks in Saudi Arabia, Kyiv has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire. But you ask yourself, isn't there another player in this? And there is.
Chapter 2: Will Russia agree to a 30-day ceasefire?
What will Russia do? And will they agree at all to the terms of a 30-day ceasefire? We'll break it all down with Fred Fleitz. He's a former National Security Council chief of staff and the vice chair of the America First Policy Institute's Center for American Security. That's hard to fit on one business card.
Later in the show, we turn to Syria, where a major outbreak of violence is threatening to push the country deeper into chaos. Reports of massacres are emerging as the fragile government struggles to maintain control. We'll get analysis from David Dowd, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight.
Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia following high-level negotiations in Saudi Arabia. Now, the announcement came after hours of discussions in Jeddah on Tuesday, where the US also confirmed it would immediately lift its paws on intelligence sharing with Kyiv and resume military aid.
Now, the talks mark a significant shift in ceasefire negotiations, which had stalled, of course, after a tense exchange, I think we all saw that, between the Ukrainian and U.S. presidents at the White House. Now, attention turns to Moscow, with American and Ukrainian officials making it clear that the next move is up to Russia.
The Kremlin, however, is treading carefully, saying it won't rush to a decision. You have to ask yourself, why would they? They appear to have the upper hand on the battlefield currently. Russian officials are waiting to hear directly from Washington about a possible call between Presidents Trump and Putin later this week.
Okay, joining me now to break it all down is Fred Fleitz, former National Security Council Chief of Staff and Vice Chair of the America First Policy Institute Center for American Security. Fred, thank you very much for taking the time to join us here on the Situation Report. Good to be here. But most important, like you, I'm a former CIA officer. That is very, very true.
And I do believe our paths crossed a handful of times, at least in the hallways. I never had the good fortune. I don't even know if you'd call it that. Maybe the bad fortune of doing a headquarters tour. during my time. But yeah, I know how you felt about your time in. I loved it. I had a wonderful career with the organization. I really enjoyed it.
I don't know whether they would say the same thing about me with them, but I certainly had a good time.
I had a good time. There were good times and bad times, mostly good. I was an analyst. You were an operator. I wrote quite a few PDPs, which is why I wanted to be on this show. I know a lot about the PDP. I want to see it improved. It's politicized, watered down. It might be a good topic for another show.
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Chapter 3: What is the situation in Syria and how is it evolving?
Yeah, you know what? That would actually be a great thing to talk about. And yeah, I just saw yesterday, not to get off track, I think we are getting off track, but not to get off track, but I just saw that the Trump administration revoked access for President Biden to the PDB. So... I'm not even sure if President Biden knew he was getting the PDB at this point, but there you go.
Anyway, sorry about that. You know what? That was a low blow, and I apologize. All right, let's go straight into the main topic of the day, and that would be the Ukraine-Russia conflict. I'm going to let you run with this. It's a wide open playing field. Talk to me about where we are currently with this conflict.
Well, we know that for years, President Trump has been saying that the priority for the United States should be to stop the killing. He believes that the previous policy of Joe Biden and the Europeans to just plow weapons into Ukraine for as long as it takes was not a sensible policy because there was no strategy for either Ukraine to win the war or to push Russia out.
Ukraine was going to run out of troops. This had become a long-term war of attrition. Ukraine was going to lose. It was immoral to keep stringing this out. But Biden didn't want to talk about it anymore. He didn't want to talk about peace talks. He just wanted to attack anyone who suggested trying to end the war as being pro-Putin or anti-Ukraine. That's just not true.
So we've seen over the last couple of weeks Trump and his officials really twisting Zelensky's arm to get behind the approach of ending the war, getting a ceasefire. And we'll negotiate other issues later, like territory, security assistance, NATO membership, etc. And it was hard because I understand that Zelensky doesn't want to concede anything to Russia. Russia was the aggressor.
This is a vicious, unprovoked attack. And in a perfect world, we push Russia out and put Putin on trial for war crimes. But we don't live in a perfect world. That isn't possible. We need to do what is possible. That's to get a ceasefire, if we can, to stop the killing and negotiate the best deal possible so Ukraine can recover, rebuild, and become a robust democracy and strong economy.
A ceasefire only works if both sides stop shooting. And so from your perspective, what is Putin's motivation, given that he's got the upper hand, given that, I mean, Trump has advised that Kiev has no cards, what's Putin's motivation for stopping what appears to be forward progress on the battlefield and sitting down at the negotiating table?
Russia's making some progress, but it will take quite a while for Russia to conquer Ukraine. If it ever does, it will be a very, very painful and expensive victory. Putin might be lured to agree to end the fighting with an understanding that Ukraine will be neutral. It will not be a member of NATO. And that's not even our call. That has to be voted on by NATO members with a unanimous vote.
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Chapter 4: How are recent massacres affecting Syrian stability?
That's not going to happen. And that we will work to bring Russia back into the community of nations in good standing. Bring Russia into Europe. Lower sanctions on Russia with an understanding that some of Russia's revenues have to go to rebuild Ukraine. I think Trump is the only leader on the scene right now, maybe ever, who could maybe be able to deal with to get a fairly reasonable deal.
If that doesn't happen, we don't know who's going to succeed Trump. I think that sanctions on Russia will get even worse. We will give even more powerful weapons to Ukraine. This is a chance for Russia to get out of it. And I don't agree with Putin's security concerns about Ukraine, but I think we can meet him halfway.
We're not going to agree to native membership, but we're also still going to arm Ukraine to the teeth.
I guess I'm playing devil's advocate here in terms of the... And to be fair to the White House and the State Department, they've said it's cautious optimism that anything can happen in a positive direction, but Putin's been pretty clear about his hardline demands. And there's no indication that he's inclined to back off of those.
And certainly not, again, when... I'm just trying to put myself in his position and say, okay, why? Why would I stop at this point? Is it because my economy is heading south and I can't continue to afford this? But...
I guess where I'm going with this is, again, looking for leverage points that the White House may have to try to get some sort of deal that isn't essentially just giving it all away to Putin.
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Chapter 5: What role does Trump play in diplomatic negotiations?
Well, I think that probably there'll be a new order drawn along the current battle lines. Ukraine's not going to concede any territory, but it will be it will be decided in long term negotiations. But this is going to take sophisticated diplomacy by Trump's top national security officials and by Trump to say to Putin, this is a better road for you and the Russian people.
Of course, Putin could keep fighting and keep wrecking his economy and isolating his country. or you may see an opportunity with Trump to get out of this war and to set Ukraine up in a situation where he retains its freedom. Putin can live with it on his borders. That that means You know, we're not going to agree to Ukraine being disarmed, but Ukraine will agree to be neutral.
Ukraine won't be put in NATO, at least for the next 10 to 25 years. We won't raise that issue. I mean, how do you twist Putin's arm? He has seen... Fairly invulnerable to sanctions. He'll subject his people to extreme levels of pain to maintain his policy. It's going to take personal diplomacy. And look, it's going to be tough. I don't know that we'll win this, but I think it's worth trying.
Yeah. No, I don't disagree with you there at all. What... What's your perspective on the effectiveness of the sanctions to date?
They've done significant damage to the Russian economy, but Russia is still able to sell its energy. And the problem with our strategy with Russia is that we've pushed Russia into the arms of China. And China is buying Russian energy and goods and probably providing funds to sustain the Russian economy. This is a huge threat to global security long term.
We need to break that growing nexus between Moscow and Beijing, which also includes Iran and North Korea, I might add. And that's another reason why ending this war is so essential. And I don't think we should give anything to Putin other than what I just said. And I don't like the idea. that Putin wouldn't be forced to give back all the territory he's taken.
But I think we should still keep it on the table that someday we're going to ask Russia to return the territory, maybe after Putin leaves office.
Yeah, I guess that was one of my next questions, which is to what degree do you think any agreement now is really just kicking the can down the road? It gives Putin a chance to, in the short term, rebuild his economy, rearm, get stockpiles back up. So are you concerned that any deal that's done now is temporary in a sense?
I think it's a concern. That's why Ukraine has to be fully armed to and ready to prevent any Russian invasion. And we have to have peacekeepers along the border to monitor a ceasefire.
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Chapter 6: How do sanctions on Russia and Iran affect global security?
I think the minerals deal is significant because it's something Trump wanted. And he thinks it will be in court for the U.S. economy. It represents the U.S. being paid back for our military assistance. And it was a sign of good faith by Zelensky to give this to him. I know people have said that this is some kind of a security assistance or it will shield Ukraine from invading.
I'm not really putting it that way because I think this will take a long time to implement. And in the short term, it's not going to make any difference. What it does be is that Zelensky is saying to Trump, I'm prepared to play ball with you.
You want this, here it is. And correct me if I'm wrong, but if you just look at that as an economic deal, I think it's very interesting. And again, setting aside this idea that it serves as a deterrent in some fashion. But just looking at the economics of it and the resources that were part of this deal,
Am I wrong in saying that a significant amount of those resources, the minerals, the oil, gas, natural resources are currently sitting in the 20% of territory held by the Russians?
Some of them are in Russian territory, but they're spread throughout Ukraine. And if they're actually there, there's more than enough rare earth minerals and energy to extract from the territory that Ukraine currently holds.
Okay. All right. That's excellent. Fred, if you could sit right there, don't go anywhere because we've got to take a quick break here from our sponsors. And you know what? Then we'll be right back with more of Fred Flights here on The Situation Report. Thanks very much. Welcome back to the Situation Report.
Joining me once again is Fred Fleitz, former National Security Council Chief of Staff and Vice Chair of the America First Policy Institute's Center for American Security. Fred, thanks very much for sticking around here on the Situation Report. We've been talking about Russia and Ukraine, of course, but let's switch gears a little bit. And let's talk about what's happening in the Middle East.
Give me your assessment of the current state of play in Gaza.
Well, you know, we've seen some encouraging news in Gaza, but we're far from settling this war between Hamas and Israel. I think because of Trump's election and leadership, this is why we... the number of hostages were released by Hamas. And I might add that Hamas made critical concessions just after Trump won the election concessions it would not make to the Biden administration.
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Chapter 7: What are the implications of the minerals deal for Ukraine?
America First Policy Institute Center for American Security and former CIA senior official, thanks so much for joining us today. All right, when we come back, escalating violence and reports of massacres are testing the Syrian government's fragile grip on power, and it is fragile right now.
David Dowd, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, joins us to break down the situation. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Syria experienced its worst violence since the fall of Assad this week with reports of massacres targeting the Alawite minority.
According to reports, entire families, including women and children, were killed during operations carried out by government security forces. The UN has documented at least 111 civilian deaths, though the actual toll is expected to be higher. Survivors describe summary executions carried out on a sectarian basis, leading to a mass exodus of Alawite civilians seeking refuge in neighboring Lebanon.
Syria's interim government, led by President Ahmed al-Sharra, has vowed to investigate these atrocities, stating that no one is above the law. All right. Joining me now to provide further insight is David Dowd. He's a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. David, thanks very much for joining us here on the Situation Report. Pleasure is all mine. Thank you for having me on.
Well, you'll think differently after we start our conversation. You'll say, my God, what an idea this is. But let's start at the top level with Syria. Give me your insight into where they are currently, just how stable, unstable, chaotic, What's your assessment?
Well, I described the situation in Syria as fragile, particularly the new administration's control over the country. Now, there have been deals yesterday to help stabilize the situation between the administration under the Muhammad al-Julani, also known as Ahmad al-Sharra, the new interim self-appointed president of Syria, and the SDF, the
colloquially known as the Kurds, but really a specific faction of the Kurds in Northeast Syria. There was also talk of a similar deal in the works between the administration in Damascus and the Druze in Sweden in Southern Syria. So what Shutout is trying to do is, through peaceful means, consolidate power over the country. He's only been in power since December 8th, really.
But he still has the issue with the Alawites on the coast, where he could face the most challenges to consolidating power, and that could threaten to unravel the rest of his control over Syria.
With the Alawite situation, how... Well, let's start with the violence. Look, every side in this conflict has the incentive to lie, to exaggerate its opponent's crimes and to
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Chapter 8: Can there be peace in the Middle East with the current regime in Iran?
then you get a seat at the political table. Hezbollah represents what is possibly Lebanon's largest and fastest growing sect, the Shiites, a significant proportion of them, according to Recent polling, it was late September of 2024, something like 85% of Lebanese Shiites support Hezbollah to some degree, and for various reasons.
They're not all hardcore ideologues, but they support the organization. Only 5% in that poll that was issued by Arab Barometer were shown to oppose Hezbollah.
Now, I'm sorry to interrupt, David, but I always wonder about these surveys and these polls that come out of the region. I mean, and we had a number of them coming out of Gaza, right? Where they said, do you support Hamas? And I'm thinking, okay, well, why put any faith in anything coming out of there? Because if someone knocks on your door or they call you and say, do you support Hamas?
You're probably going to say, yeah, it's probably, you know, there's no upside here if I say, no, I don't support Hamas. And you can argue the same with Hezbollah if they're doing a survey of Shiite.
So it's not Hezbollah doing the survey. It's an independent organization called Arab Barometer. They tend to be very credible. But also, look, and this is where Hezbollah tried to address these claims in its own way after the war with Nusrullah's February 23rd funeral.
which drew, according to Information International, this is an independent consultancy organization in Beirut that mapped out the square footage of the area where people had congregated for the funeral and estimated that somewhere between 650,000 at a minimum to 900,000 people came out out of a sect in Lebanon, the Shiites, that is estimated to be 1.2 million people.
And that's assuming that the people that stayed home all stayed home for reasons of opposition to Hezbollah. People can stay home for all types of different reasons, logistics, their kid got a cold, they got a cold, they were lazy, whatever.
So as far as we can tell, and this is what Hezbollah intended this to be, not just an outpouring of grievance for their fallen leader, but also, as they said repeatedly, this was a demonstration of their continued viability in Lebanon.
So because of that, whatever you want to do moving forward in Lebanon, because they've demonstrated, at least they've tried to demonstrate the retention of this base, you have to take them into consideration, uh, the same way you did prior to, uh, to, to the war.
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