The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
Sat, 21 Dec 2024
In this episode of the PDB Situation Report: We begin in Israel, where a potential breakthrough could be close—a hostage and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Jonathan Schanzer, Executive Director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, provides the latest updates. Later in the program, we review the war in Ukraine as it enters its third year. Open Source Intelligence Analyst Ryan McBeth examines the major events of 2024 and previews what 2025 might hold. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Patriot Gold: Call 1-888-870-5457 for a free investor guide. Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB Jonathan Schanzer: https://x.com/JSchanzer Ryan McBeth: https://www.youtube.com/@RyanMcBethProgramming https://ryanmcbeth.substack.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What is the latest on the Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations?
Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. Today, we begin in Israel, where a breakthrough might just be on the horizon, a hostage and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. We'll get the latest from Jonathan Schanzer. He's the executive director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
And later in the program, we'll review how the war in Ukraine has progressed throughout its third year. That's right, a third year. Examining the major events of 2024 and what 2025 just might hold. Open source intelligence analyst and friend of the show, Ryan McBath, will join us to break it down. But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight.
Now, after months of stalemates, after back and forths and failed efforts, Israel and Hamas might finally be nearing a ceasefire to end the ongoing 14-month war. Officials are urging caution, as they should, as critical details still need to be hammered out. However, there is a renewed sense of optimism, which, frankly, has been absent for quite some time.
Reports from Egyptian and Hamas sources indicate the potential deal would roll out in phases. It includes a cessation of hostilities, the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and an increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza. Now, Israel estimates that Hamas is holding some 100 hostages, though tragically, over one-third of them are believed to have been killed.
This possible agreement may mark a turning point in a conflict that has destabilized the region and been devastating for the Palestinians and Israeli people alike. For more on this, let me bring in Jonathan Schanzer. He's the executive director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Jonathan, thanks very much for taking the time to join us here on The Situation Report.
Hey, it's my pleasure. Let's start with a very big question. It's sort of at the 30,000-foot level, and then we can drill down from there. But what... do you think accounts for the apparent progress with the ceasefire negotiations right now?
Well, it's a good question. I mean, I think, number one, Israel's winning. And you can see it across all of the domains where Israel's been fighting. Hamas is on its last leg, 23 out of 24 brigades destroyed, really virtually no military infrastructure above ground to speak of.
The Israelis are slowly and methodically moving through those tunnels, mapping them and destroying them after they make sure that there are no hostages there. So that's working out, I think, pretty well from the Israeli perspective. They also have built this, it's called the Nitzarim Corridor.
It's this new, essentially elongated base that cuts across, I guess, around two-thirds of the way up Gaza. You see this large corridor, now a major base. And so the Israelis have a semi-permanent structure there that is maintaining control over Gaza. Hamas just cannot compete at this point. They've been really knocked for a loop.
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Chapter 2: What are the major developments in the Ukraine conflict in 2024?
they were ready to pull the trigger on a normalization deal uh trump lost and as a result you know the normalization progress really experienced some crazy setbacks i think biden really snatched a feed from the jaws of victory there uh but i think with the saudis coming or with the trump administration coming back and the saudis know
that it's going to be on the table again, we may be able to create a new reality with Gaza in the mix. I think that shows some promise right now, but let's not get too giddy. There's a lot that needs to happen before that moment.
Yeah, I don't know that anybody's going to approach anything resembling Giddy at this point. And I want to pick up on this after the break because I'm a cynical person when it comes to developing any sort of long-term solutions out in the Middle East. Anybody who's been watching that area for decades. Decades, I think, might feel the same way. But I want to circle back to this after the break.
Jonathan, if you'll stick around, we've got a quick break, and then we'll be back with Jonathan Schanzer. He's the executive director for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, America, of course, just got done with a historical election. You may have heard something about that. Now, sure, there's going to be some change in the White House.
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Chapter 3: How is Israel approaching the ceasefire with Hamas?
Look, the answer to that is obviously no. If the Iranian regime continues to agitate for the destruction of the state of Israel and makes it a key pillar of what the regime pushes for from a policy perspective, from a military perspective, we've got problems, right? We saw what those problems look like up close for 14 months, right? Seven-front war being waged against Israel.
and the United States. Don't forget that the U.S. was sustaining fire from Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria and Yemen throughout this entire process, and the Iranians were driving all of it. So we're going to have to solve this problem. Ultimately, I think that comes down to a policy embraced by the incoming Trump administration
of regime change now regime change is like a dirty word here in washington here in the swamp we don't talk about that anymore because you know we did it in iraq and afghanistan and people said well you know that failed so we shouldn't try to do it again right that america is bad at it well I think we've over learned those lessons.
I think we're now too timid when it comes to the real threats that America faces. And by the way, doesn't mean if we're in favor of regime change, we don't have to put boots on the ground. We don't have to start sacrificing our blood and treasure in far flung places. We can support the Iranian people and we can support Iran's neighbors.
to help bring down this regime that has been a thorn in our side since 1979. So, what does that look like?
When you say regime change, and I agree, I've been around a long time, seen my share of those activities. What does that look like if it's not a kinetic war? In specifics, what would you do? How would you recommend if you were sitting down in the Oval Office saying, look, here's the key elements of what we're talking about here?
Yeah, I mean, look, I would argue that the vast majority of the Iranian people hate their regime. There are a ton of minorities that hate the regime, but there are also, you know, there are Persians that hate the regime. They believe that their regime is wasted, their oil revenue, that they have wasted military expenditures.
And by the way, the repression that the regime has placed on its own people, this has run its course. And so we need to provide the people of Iran with cash, with intelligence, with communication systems, maybe even weapons as required to help them really develop a strategy and an execution. that would bring down this regime that is thoroughly hated.
I think that you've got Azerbaijan, you've got Saudi Arabia, you've got Israel, you've got a whole bunch of other countries in the region that also hate Iran. They hate this regime in Iran, right? They don't hate the Iranian people, but they do believe that the Islamic Republic is one of the greatest problems faced in the Middle East.
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Chapter 4: What challenges does Hamas face in the current conflict?
And it's very difficult to run an army like that when you have those soldiers who don't actually exist in the ranks.
Yeah, and a decent portion of that military was basically used to support the narco-trafficking by the Assad regime that was taking place. That's correct. And unfortunately, now it's going to be picked up by someone else. Now, my intel sources tell me that you've got a theory related to the fall of Syria. What is that? I do.
I do. You know, it's kind of like Domino's here. I actually, I think it goes back to the New York Times. And I told Israelis about this, they say, oh, Ryan, you're crazy. But I actually, I believe that this could be a good theory. Essentially, on October 17th, 2023, the New York Times claimed that Israel bombed the Ali Arabia hospital.
And actually, it was an Islamic State missile that landed short. But again, it's the New York Times. They don't tend to fact check stuff. And so they said, oh, Israel bombed this place. That article was up for six hours. And that was when the world left the side of Israel. Israel lost the information war that day when the New York Times, when they kind of showed their anti-Semitic base.
And after that, Israel said, you know what? We're not going to win the information war. We're not going to run around randomly killing people, but we're going to go hard on Hezbollah because it's not like the world cares. We lost the New York Times. We lost the public. We're just going to go hard. And so they went in hard on Hamas.
Once they treated Hamas to a certain level, they said, we're going to go in hard on Hezbollah. Once they went out hard on Hezbollah, Hezbollah actually had operators, genuine, honest-to-God special forces inside of Syria. They were farming XP there, fighting against ISIS, Daesh, and fighting against the rebels. So what does Hezbollah do?
They pull those guys back into Lebanon because they have to fight the Israelis. Now Assad has one less brigade of troops that can be reliable. And I strongly believe that HTS, which is the organization that essentially took over Syria in 10 days, I believe they said, you know what, this is our opportunity. There's a reason why they invaded the day.
They attacked Aleppo the day that a ceasefire was signed between Hezbollah and Israel. They knew that Hezbollah wasn't coming back. All right, there's one less brigade we got to worry about. We have 50 days to take all of Syria before President Trump gets in office and there's a new sheriff in town. That's exactly what they did.
So I think it all goes back to the New York Times and a fake news story. Have you heard from the New York Times? Are they able to corroborate your theory? I am not. And what's interesting is that about last year, I actually did a story on the New York Times. Like, why do they always consistently get military stories wrong?
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