Jonathan Schanzer
Appearances
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
I'm not optimistic in general. I mean, I think we've just watched a 14 month war play out in the Middle East. It's probably going to stretch into a 15th month before it ends, if it ends at all. And I would probably also expect chaos to continue in the West Bank. I'm not
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
Convinced that the Houthis are going to stop firing on Israel or on American warships in the Red Sea, even if a ceasefire deal is struck, even if the Iranians stop firing, even if Hezbollah stops firing. I'm not sure that this whole thing goes quiet. And with the Middle East still on war footing, it's going to get even harder to find that political leadership that can step in.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
I do think, though, that at some point we are eventually going to see Mahmoud Abbas or Abu Mazen, as he's known, the president of the Palestinian Authority, He's getting up there in age. He's not well. At some point, he's going to leave the scene. That will give an opportunity to the Palestinians in the West Bank to select new leadership and to perhaps begin to Rebuild anew.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
And that could include the Gaza Strip. And so I think that there are things that are coming down the pike when I'm not sure. Look, if you ask me, I think Donald Trump should come out early on in his new administration and say, hey, Abu Mazen, you've been in power since 2005. Get out. Your time's up, right? You've been in power now for far too long. You're almost 20 years into a four-year term.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
Maybe it's time you step aside and let the Palestinians experience leadership that's going to be more effective. Do that and begin to have conversations with a new, pragmatic, I think, forward-looking, moderate leader on the West Bank side of things. You may begin to see some breakthroughs.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
That would be ideal, again, you know, with encouragement coming from Saudi, from the Emirates, and from some of other peace partners that Israel actually trusts. I would say, by the way, Egypt and Jordan probably don't qualify.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
Look, the answer to that is obviously no. If the Iranian regime continues to agitate for the destruction of the state of Israel and makes it a key pillar of what the regime pushes for from a policy perspective, from a military perspective, we've got problems, right? We saw what those problems look like up close for 14 months, right? Seven-front war being waged against Israel.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
and the United States. Don't forget that the U.S. was sustaining fire from Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria and Yemen throughout this entire process, and the Iranians were driving all of it. So we're going to have to solve this problem. Ultimately, I think that comes down to a policy embraced by the incoming Trump administration
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
of regime change now regime change is like a dirty word here in washington here in the swamp we don't talk about that anymore because you know we did it in iraq and afghanistan and people said well you know that failed so we shouldn't try to do it again right that america is bad at it well I think we've over learned those lessons.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
I think we're now too timid when it comes to the real threats that America faces. And by the way, doesn't mean if we're in favor of regime change, we don't have to put boots on the ground. We don't have to start sacrificing our blood and treasure in far flung places. We can support the Iranian people and we can support Iran's neighbors.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
to help bring down this regime that has been a thorn in our side since 1979. So, what does that look like?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
Yeah, I mean, look, I would argue that the vast majority of the Iranian people hate their regime. There are a ton of minorities that hate the regime, but there are also, you know, there are Persians that hate the regime. They believe that their regime is wasted, their oil revenue, that they have wasted military expenditures.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
And by the way, the repression that the regime has placed on its own people, this has run its course. And so we need to provide the people of Iran with cash, with intelligence, with communication systems, maybe even weapons as required to help them really develop a strategy and an execution. that would bring down this regime that is thoroughly hated.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
I think that you've got Azerbaijan, you've got Saudi Arabia, you've got Israel, you've got a whole bunch of other countries in the region that also hate Iran. They hate this regime in Iran, right? They don't hate the Iranian people, but they do believe that the Islamic Republic is one of the greatest problems faced in the Middle East.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
You've got a whole country now in Syria, they're celebrating the ouster of Iran from that country. I think the Iraqis would probably benefit as well from expunging Iranian influence there. So, what we need is a process of removing this really rotten regime from across the Middle East, but it's got to start in Iran itself, where I think you have a population naturally inclined to help.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
Well, it's a good question. I mean, I think, number one, Israel's winning. And you can see it across all of the domains where Israel's been fighting. Hamas is on its last leg, 23 out of 24 brigades destroyed, really virtually no military infrastructure above ground to speak of.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
And so I think that's the conversation that needs to start sooner rather than later. And I think it's interesting because you've got a president coming in who's been the target of assassination attempts
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
by this regime so he's going to be motivated to start to think about how we get rid of these uh these bad actors and and of course there's that history that we have dating back to trump's maximum pressure campaign the big sanctions that were being put on the regime what we didn't do last time we have an opportunity to do now is to extend that to support to the iranian people
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
yeah i mean look the iranians already control iraq to a large extent and it was a huge mistake of ours to leave when we did in the way that we did because we left iran in total control it used to be that they you know had primary control in the southern part of that country uh that's the the shiite population there and so it was sort of natural but now you know you go further north in baghdad and even into parts of kurdistan and you're still going to see iranian influence
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
financial influence is clear the central bank i think has just been um hijacked uh by the iranian regime so you know i i'm deeply concerned there i do think that the shia militias the uh the pmus as they're known the popular mobilization units that were based in syria um you know they did leave they melted away uh i think a lot of them went to iraq and that's where they're going to reorganize
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
I think those Shia militias, by the way, may also continue the smuggling of Captagon, this addictive drug that has helped fund the Assad regime in the past. It's going to yield money to Hezbollah and to the regime itself. I can imagine that that smuggling is going to continue by way of Iraq into Jordan.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
Jordan has been a popular place for the smuggling of that drug, but also weapons and cash bound for the West Bank. So, yeah, I'm going to see. I think we should expect Iraq to become some sort of an operational hub
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
for the regime i think look the good news is is that it's now further away from lebanon and it's further away from israel but the regime has not stopped trying to destabilize the middle east they're going to keep it going again that's just one more reason why i think we need to push back against this regime and try to bring it down and i think using the iranian people is going to be the
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
Better way of doing this, the non-kinetic way, but we're going to need to give them real support and it's going to need to be a whole of government effort, in my view, on the part of the Trump administration. I take your point.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
The Israelis are slowly and methodically moving through those tunnels, mapping them and destroying them after they make sure that there are no hostages there. So that's working out, I think, pretty well from the Israeli perspective. They also have built this, it's called the Nitzarim Corridor.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
No, I think you're right. It's a huge lucrative business. And the smugglers on the Jordanian border, I'm sure, have already figured out how to talk to the new Al-Qaeda leadership that's taken over Turkish-backed. I'm sure the Turks would probably love it. uh, to benefit from, uh, from, from that drug trade. I think we should expect the Turks to try to take it over.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
Uh, but again, I think you're going to probably see some new smuggling networks from, uh, from the Iraqi, uh, side of things where the Iranians are going to try to exploit that process as well. So I think, you know, Captagon continues, uh, illicit financial flows continue, illicit weapons smuggling continues. This is the Middle East. We should expect these things.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
But I do think that the Iranian land bridge, as we used to call it, the Shiite Crescent, has been disrupted. It's good news. But, you know, I think the one little bit of cold water I want to throw on this is that you now have, again, an al Qaeda regime backed by Turkey, backed by Qatar, that's just taken over Syria.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
i don't think we should be celebrating that right now i think a lot of people are saying hey assad's gone this is great big victory you know this is you know alien versus predator you got one bad actor winning against another and we're gonna have to deal with them too so i think some interesting challenges ahead i think have yet to be grappled with by the lame dog outgoing by the administration they seem like bystanders right now the hope here is of course that the trump team
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
They're taking a good hard look at the new rulers of Syria, their patrons, you know, in Ankara and Doha, and trying to figure out how to make sure that they can be contained. Because Al Qaeda, we all should remember, not a good actor. And we could even see jailbreaks by ISIS, you know, up in the north in the Kurdish areas. That could make things even more chaotic.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
It's this new, essentially elongated base that cuts across, I guess, around two-thirds of the way up Gaza. You see this large corridor, now a major base. And so the Israelis have a semi-permanent structure there that is maintaining control over Gaza. Hamas just cannot compete at this point. They've been really knocked for a loop.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
This is one to watch right now, far from stable in Syria.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
But then you've got the weakening of Hezbollah in the north, which these are, of course, Hamas' longtime allies. They've just agreed to raise the white flag. They don't want to fight Israel any longer because the Israelis just beat them up pretty good, too. Their leadership has been utterly gutted. And on top of that, the Israelis have destroyed a vast amount of their military infrastructure.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
And so that's all good. And then on top of that, you see the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. And the Israelis also took out the air defenses of Iran back in late October. They've taken out the ballistic missile production facilities. There's really nothing left right now of that support structure that Hamas once had. That means that the Israelis have the upper hand.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
And then on top of that, you got Donald Trump coming in saying, I want this war over before January 20th or there's going to be hell to pay. I think that's got everybody quaking in their boots. So I think right now momentum is shifting toward the end of the war. That's a good thing.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
You're always going to have that moment where, you know, the guns fall silent and then they start to think about how they're going to do this again. I think there's a couple of things to watch. One is the Israelis are not leaving what's known as the Philadelphia corridor. This is the area between the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
The Israelis know that that's where the vast majority of the rearming and resupplying of Hamas, that's where it's all happened in recent years. I don't think there's any way you can get around that any longer. It's not coming by way of the Mediterranean. It's not coming over land from Israel. So it pretty much leaves Egypt.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
So it's about a 20-mile corridor that the Israelis are going to maintain control over. That's going to prevent the rearming and resupply of Hamas.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
On top of that, you're going to have, I think, because of what's been happening with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, you're not going to see the rearming of Hezbollah either unless Iran somehow makes a new deal with the Al-Qaeda rulers, the Turkish-backed Al-Qaeda rulers in Syria after the Assad regime.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
All of those things would seem right now to indicate that the Iranian axis, as we knew it, does not have the capability to rearm the way they once did. And so I think we may see sort of a lull in this kind of activity. It doesn't mean that peace is going to break out. Let's just be clear here. But I do think that it may take a bit longer for these groups to rearm if they rearm at all.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
I mean, Hezbollah will have another go. Hamas, I'm not sure.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
Look, it's not. But I'm going to just tell you flat out, I don't think the Israelis are going anywhere anytime soon. What they need to find is they need to find new political leadership in Gaza. And we just don't see it. I mean, I'm hard pressed to find anyone within the PLO that has the respect of the Israeli leadership right now.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
So the Palestinian Authority, that interim government that has not been performing wonderfully in the West Bank, I don't see them coming in. I don't see the Saudis or the Emiratis lining up, raising their hands, saying, hey, we want to spend time in Gaza. We want to spend billions of dollars in rebuilding Gaza. You're not seeing that either.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
So I think as long as we have that absence of leadership and real no vision for what comes next, I think the Israelis are going to have to stay there. And I got to tell you also, I don't think the Israelis are too unhappy about the idea of leaving Gaza, maybe in a little bit of a state of flux for a time, as a message to everyone. Here's what happens when you murder 1,200 Israelis.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
Here's what happens when you kidnap 250 plus Israelis. You don't just get, you know, billions of dollars in blank checks from the international community. You just don't get to rebuild after 14 months. They're going to stay there, they're going to ensure that there's security, and they're going to rebuild things, I think, on their own terms. I think in perpetuity is not a good idea.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
I think that spending the time to make sure that they got the right ingredients and that Hamas has really been snuffed out after a hostage swap has been made, that does seem like something that would be realistic. You're not going to hear people cheering about it from Europe. You're not going to hear the UN saying this is a great thing.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
You're not going to hear the Arab world say that it's a great thing, but I think it's the reality. I agree with you 100%.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
One is it can't be Hamas. And there's talk right now of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority having some kind of technocratic leadership solution where they would together try to govern Gaza. I don't see the Israelis agreeing to it. They don't want to let Hamas in or let Hamas back in any demonstrable way. And they don't like the PA. I mean, the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank is corrupt.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
You got a guy who's in his 80s, who's been in power since 2005. It's a disaster over there too. So I think what the Israelis are looking for right now is truly new leadership, clean leadership, You know, a leader or a group of people that are, I think, interested in trying to build Gaza into something sustainable. Now, there are people who are talking about turning it into Singapore.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
Let's be honest. Gaza is not Singapore. I mean, you could turn it into something viable, but I don't think we should exaggerate here. But I think really what we're looking for right now is leadership that's going to be endorsed by some of those pragmatic states in the Gulf.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
So, whether it's the Emiratis, the Bahrainis, the Saudis, some of Israel's better peace partners or better potential peace partners, having the endorsement of these countries, knowing that they are going to be, at the end of the day, the patrons of the people that inherit
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
leadership in gaza i think that's really important for the israelis i think packaging this as part of a broader um you know extension of the abraham of course we're watching of course saudi arabia uh when the trump administration comes in they're gonna start feeling the heat they're gonna i mean the the trump administration the last time around had them on the five yard line
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
they were ready to pull the trigger on a normalization deal uh trump lost and as a result you know the normalization progress really experienced some crazy setbacks i think biden really snatched a feed from the jaws of victory there uh but i think with the saudis coming or with the trump administration coming back and the saudis know
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
that it's going to be on the table again, we may be able to create a new reality with Gaza in the mix. I think that shows some promise right now, but let's not get too giddy. There's a lot that needs to happen before that moment.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
And I don't know how to do the math here, but I think the Israelis believe that with the deal that they're making, they're going to get back upwards of 140, 150 people alive. And I don't think anyone in this country thought from the original 254
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
they would get back these numbers so i think they're pretty happy with the total number of people they're getting back it did take a really long time though and you have to wonder what kind of suffering some of these people have endured over the year and three months that they've been held in captivity well the ones that have made it back alive how are they doing i i imagine you don't just like take a shower and get back into things
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
No, look, you know, some are doing better than others. I think all of them are having trauma. All of them are having survivor guilt for getting out while others, you know, stayed in, for having lived when others died. And, you know, by the way, all these people and their parents and their brothers and their sisters and their cousins, they've all become public figures in this country.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
They've become political figures. almost overnight, where people want to hear their thoughts, it's become a very public thing. I mean, I cannot overstate the way in which the hostages have become front and center and have stayed there for the entire war, right? We've been watching all the ups and downs of this war. There's been a front in Lebanon. There's a front in Yemen.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
If Syria collapses, as an analyst of the Middle East like me, I'm watching all of these things and it's jaw-dropping, the sheer amount of activity, military activity, geopolitical activity. Here, the focus has been on these people.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
And so, there will be a huge focus on whoever gets let out, they will have interviews non-stop, they will be celebrated, but then there'll be what happens quietly behind closed doors, that kind of PTSD and the psychological trauma that they're going to have to contend with. This is not easy stuff. You know, I heard from somebody here recently
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
that for the people who fought on 10-7, the people who were captured on 10-7, the waiting list just to get psychological therapy has been astronomical here. It's just there's not enough social workers in this country to handle the workload, the trauma,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
And by the way, that doesn't even include the, you know, the soldiers who were injured or were fighting in Gaza or in Lebanon, the families of the soldiers who were holding their breath, waiting for their loved ones to come home. This is a country that is enduring a trauma that, you know, I think, you know, we haven't seen in this region in decades.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
And, you know, it's going to take some serious healing here. But I do think that getting those 33 back will go a long way to start to make this country whole again.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
Yeah, they're going to keep that border that you mentioned, the Philadelphia corridor. That's the area along the Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt. They're going to keep that. They're not going to have as many forces there, but they're going to keep this area.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
That's going to prevent smuggling coming in from Egypt, which I think this is a country that's played a really nasty double game, negotiating the release, trying to be an honest broker, while also having presided over these tunnels. It's dirty stuff, and I think Egypt needs to be held to account. There's another area called Nitzarim Carter about two-thirds of the way up Gaza.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
The Israelis are going to be pulling out most of their forces there as well, but they'll be able to get back into it. It's semi-permanent structures now that the Israelis have created, and in the meantime, the Israelis are going to maintain security forces all around the border of the Gaza Strip, again, with the expectation that at some point, they will very likely need to go back into battle.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
Look, I don't think they'll go to phase two. I think right now phase one does not demand that Israel stop the war entirely. Phase one demands that Israel pauses in order to execute this trade, right, for the Hamas prisoners, for these hostages. When that's done, that's when I suspect the Israelis are going to have a plan for the complete elimination of Hamas.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
They've been very careful up until now. They've not wanted to really, I mean, you know, you hear all sorts of things about how this war is going. The Israelis have been fighting much more carefully than you'd think because they don't want to kill their own hostages. So they've been really careful. You get the vast majority of them out. I think it changes the game for the Israelis.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
I think they've been waiting for a moment to be able to do this in a way that I think matches some of their war plans. And so I think, it's just me talking here, I think they're going to go on the offensive after round one.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
Sure. We're Foundation for Defense of Democracies, FDD. You can find us on X, ACFTD. And you can find me on X, at Jshanzer, J-S-C-H-A-N-Z-E-R.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
Well, I got here on Monday, and we all knew that the deal was close. They'd been circling over this for a couple of days. I spent the last days trying to just talk to senior people here, talking to the people who've been involved in brokering this deal. First, I'll just start by saying this was a deal that was put on the table by the Israelis back in May.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
The same deal could have been accepted by Hamas, but it wasn't. Really, three reasons for that. One is, you know, Israel killed Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas, last year. They also really just gave Hezbollah a shellacking, which took a lot of pressure off of Israel, put more pressure on Hamas. But I think the real game changer was the election of Donald Trump.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
It really, I think, changed their view of how much time they had to continue to kind of jerk everybody around and to keep this crisis going. They knew they had to get this thing done, and we're going to see that this thing is going to get implemented on Sunday, one day before Trump's inauguration, and this is going to alleviate pressure on Hamas.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
From the Israeli perspective, they don't love the deal because it is likely going to see the release of about 1,600 Hamas and other terrorist fighters that have blood on their hands, that have been sitting in Israeli jails. They're going to be sent back out into the wild. And so there's a lot of people here in Israel who are grumpy about this.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
But it's going to see the release of 33 hostages, the majority of whom are going to be women, elderly, sick,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
uh children you know these are the sorts of things that has it's just been breaking the hearts of israelis here but the key i think for the israeli negotiators was that they did not agree to end the war not in phase one after phase two if there is a phase two they might agree to it but i don't think that's where the heads of the israeli negotiators are i think the way they look at it is if they're able to get everybody back i think they're gonna go right back into that gaza battlefield and try to finish off hamas
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
Trump came out and said there's going to be hell to pay. And nobody knows what that means. By the way, I'm not even sure Trump knows what that means, but everybody knows one thing about Trump. He's unpredictable, right? You don't want to find out what he means. And so Trump put a huge amount of pressure on Hamas. He put actually some pressure on the Qataris.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
He put pressure on the Egyptians who've been brokering this deal. But pressure on the Israelis, despite the fact that he's got a good longstanding relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister. We don't know exactly what was being threatened, but nobody wants to find out. Nobody wants to start off on the wrong side of Donald Trump when he steps into office.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
So this was without question the big game changer. Everybody all of a sudden started to jump. I'm going to say as much as it says something about Trump, and how much maybe the region fears him. I also have to say, where was Biden? Really, you know, when you think about the last 15 months, this is a president that could have said, hey, all hell's going to break loose.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
We're going to come down on you like a ton of bricks. It's not what he did. He started asking for partners in the region to please work with him. Nobody feared him. Nobody wanted to go out of their way to make things happen for him. And so he had to limp along for the last 15 months. I think this is just a real indictment of Biden policy in the Middle East.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
And I think the entire region right now is looking toward Trump with some optimism. thinking that he just might be a guy that bares his teeth at Iran and actually backs that up, because as everybody knows, Iran is the primary patron of Hamas.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
They're the people who are behind the Houthi attacks, these ballistic missile attacks and the harassment of American ships and the killing of American servicemen. It's the Iranians at the end of the day that I think are really worried And all of those countries in the Middle East that hate Iran, that's Saudi, that's Israel, that's the UAE, it's all of the allies of the United States.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
They are cheering on the arrival of Donald Trump.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
Well, look, back in, I think it was 2011, maybe it was 2010, the Israelis made a deal for one guy, a guy by the name of Gilad Shalit. He was an Israeli army corporal and he was kidnapped along the Gaza border. And the Israelis ultimately traded a thousand prisoners for him.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
Including, by the way, Yahya Sinwar, the guy that ultimately hatched the plot of 10-7, the guy that ran the war until he was killed by Israel a couple of months ago in the Gaza Strip. This is now what Hamas knows it will get. It is, I think, probably the most wrongheaded Israeli policy. And I generally think that the Israelis know what they're doing. They're a top-notch military.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
They've got incredible intelligence. But as negotiators, my Lord, when you start to set a precedent like that, you know, 15 years ago, of course, they're going to try to do it again. And Hamas knew it. And so there's going to be a celebration. We don't know. I think right now the number is 1,600. At least that's what we've heard so far with the open press reports.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
There are going to be some of these guys that go back to the West Bank, some that go to the Gaza Strip, and I think some of the more nasty types that they don't want to have anywhere near Israel, they're going to send them to Qatar and Turkey, who are major patrons of Hamas,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
it's not going to play well you're going to have a resurgence of hamas for at least these 42 days the israelis know it but i will tell you that the way that the israeli public their hearts have been breaking for these hostages you know you know talking about a baby who was kidnapped young women who were kidnapped and almost certainly raped repeatedly the sexual crimes that have been committed against these women
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
The people here, I mean, they hold vigils constantly. The news is filled with stories of the hostages and the hostage families. This is going to be important to make this country here in Israel. It's going to be important to make them whole again. So they're willing to do it. They're going to get back as many hostages as they can.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
And then my sense again, though, is that even after all of this is said and done, they're going to get back into Gaza and they're going to keep fighting until they get a surrender from Hamas. So from their perspective, look, the optics are not great. Hamas is going to celebrate. It's going to be a shot in the arm for them for a period of time, for these 42 days.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
But Israel, as I hear it anyway here, they're saying we are not going to let them live. So let them celebrate all they want. It's not going to last long.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
A sea spotter, or you could even call it a hostage deal, a prisoner swap. You know, you can call it whatever you want. But I mean, I think ceasefire is probably 42 day ceasefire is probably the most accurate way of describing it. You mentioned that 42 days. What does that mean? That's the time that they're not going to release all 33 hostages all at once. Hamas doesn't want to do that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
So what they're going to do is, I mean, the first tranche of hostages are going to come on Sunday, according to the reports that I've seen. And then they'll probably wait a couple of days and then they'll release two or three more and then they'll wait a couple of days after that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
This is going to be the way that Hamas ensures that the group gets an opportunity to get back off of its knees, onto its feet, try to reorganize their ability to fight. These are the sorts of things that I expect Hamas to do when they ask for these 42 days because they need the room to breathe. The Israelis had cut off all of the pipeline of their weapons.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
They'd been just mowing down the fighters on the battlefield. So Hamas needs to figure out what its new game plan is. Israel has agreed to let them try. And this is what's so counterintuitive. Everyone knows that Hamas is going to try to take these 42 days to get stronger, to be able to fight Israel with new strategies and new tactics.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
The Israelis are confident enough in their military and their intelligence and the tactics and strategies that they have, that they're okay with that if they get back 33 souls that have been held in Hamas custody in really grueling conditions.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
So far, they're... Well, okay, right now there's 98 hostages still in Hamas custody. Unclear how many of them are alive, how many of them are dead. We just don't know. I'm not even sure that Hamas knows. You're going to get back out of those 98, you're going to get back 33. If the Israelis go to a second round, phase two, then there could be more.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
But the people there that would be released would be men of fighting age. So, you know, between, let's say, 17 or 18 and, you know, up to, let's say, 40 or 50, even 50 years old. But I don't expect there to be a phase two. I think the Israelis are not likely to want to go that long and to allow Hamas to regroup for any longer than they'll get in this first round. I think there is a sense here.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
Whether it's right or wrong, I'll let viewers decide, but I think in their view, the men of fighting age, the people that have been conscripted into the Israeli military, These are people that knew what they were getting into. Many of them were wearing uniforms on October 7th. Israel, I think, is, I don't want to say is willing to sacrifice them, but understands that this is the cost, right?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
That you lose soldiers in battle, and I don't think they're going to want to make deals. They may try, but I think it seems unlikely from what I'm picking up.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
But in the end, when you look at the deal that happened after 10-7, right, where there were 80-plus hostages that were released in the first round, then the Israelis were able to recoup a number of them, I think in the end more than a dozen or so, through operations where they saved individual hostages from tunnels or from apartments where they were being held by Hamas operatives.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
Then you add to that the next round of 33, What I understand right now is that we could see out of the original 254 hostages that were taken that day, you're likely to see in the end, maybe about 130, 140, maximum 150 returned alive. Many of the ones that are dead were dead on October 7th.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
Well, look, first, let's just acknowledge that the president's Gaza-Lago plan was not a plan. I mean, it was an idea. Wait a second. That's fantastic.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
Trademark it immediately. You have my support. Okay. All right. As soon as we're done here, I'm going to go send it in. But yeah, I mean, Gazalago was not a plan. It was a notion, if that, right? Definitely not even a full-baked idea. But here's what it was. The president tore a page out of his own book, The Art of the Deal.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
You throw an idea at the other side that is just preposterous, that they can't accept, that you know they're not going to accept, and they get outraged. And then finally, when they're done being outraged, they come back to you with something that's maybe a little bit more in line with reasonable, whereas before maybe they weren't even ready to talk at all.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
And so what's just happened is we started actually the real conversation. The real conversation is that the Arabs came back and made a suggestion of a five-year process in Gaza, $53 billion fronted by the Arabs. Here's the thing that's not realistic. All this so far is workable, but what they won't do is decide on the fate of Hamas.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
No Arab country right now wants to go as far as to say Hamas needs to go. They can't come back. We have to kick them out and never let them return.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
none of them are profiles in courage. Let me just put it that way first. Very few of these countries are going to come out independently and promote ideas that we would consider to be bold, courageous, brave. Look, there are a couple of countries that have stepped out of line.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, I think they took bold and courageous steps back in 2000 when they signed the Abraham Accords with Israel. In the past, Jordan had its moment, Egypt had its moment, but most of these countries are weak.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
They're run by strongmen who don't want to risk angering their populations, nor do they want to risk getting into a spat with the Iranian regime if the regime there decides to start turning its sights on these somewhat weaker Arab regimes. So yeah, you're not going to see a lot of
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
bravery from these folks these are not profiles in courage but again I think that this has started a conversation I think it's important that Trump and Israel and everybody else fire back and say hey thanks for starting the conversation that's not good enough here's why come back to us when you're serious about dealing with Hamas because that's a serious problem that needs to get dealt with
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
Yeah. And look, I'll just say that, you know, I think the president keeps doing this, right? Yeah. You know, he's created quite a flap with Ukraine, too. Came out, shocked everybody by basically saying, you know, not going to deal with this guy. He's not ready for peace.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
You know, and what he did is he forced Zelensky to come back and agree to a mineral deal that might actually ultimately protect the territorial integrity of Ukraine, benefit the United States and put us in a different position. Now, I'm not going to tell you that it's all going to work out perfectly, and I'm not going to tell you that he had it all planned in advance.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
Maybe he did, maybe he didn't. But this is kind of the way that this president operates. He'll throw something out there. He will create outrage. He will create a huge flap. And everybody focuses on what exactly that one thing was that they can't stand or they can't live with. And meanwhile, another conversation begins that actually may be beneficial. Now, it all can still fall apart.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
And again, I'm not telling you that all this was done exactly by design, but this is the style of the president. That's what we're watching now on multiple fronts.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
Well, it's interesting because we've been watching this play out. I think this is the fourth time that the president has issued an ultimatum to Hamas, threatening to unleash hell on them. Look, what he's already done is this. He's given the Israelis everything they need in order to completely destroy Hamas. He's given them those 2,000-pound bombs, those MK-84s.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
Sure. Well, look, there's two countries that have been pressured to consider taking in refugees. One of them is Jordan. And I got to tell you, I'm not surprised that Jordan said no, and I am not sure that I would want Jordan to say yes. This is a pivotal country in the region.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
I don't love everything that they do, and I think a reckoning is needed between Israel and Jordan and the United States, because I don't think Jordan's been a particularly grateful recipient of American aid, and I don't think they've held up their end of the bargain as it relates to Israeli-Jordanian peace. But they're 85% Palestinian, and they also have another one to two million Syrian refugees.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
This is not a country that can afford to have more destabilization and to have a greater influx of refugees. That's Jordan. Now, Egypt is another story. It's one of the most populous countries on earth.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
But at the same time, here's the thing, the Sinai Peninsula, which is the area that abuts the Gaza Strip, not very densely populated, certainly could be a place that could house Palestinians, especially if other countries like the UAE or Saudi Arabia or even the US helped to foot the bill, kept them there, didn't let them integrate into mainland Egypt.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
And treated them like welcome guests and allowed them to stay there until such a time that the Gaza Strip was ready to be repopulated. I could imagine that being okay. What we're hearing though from the Egyptians is absolutely no way, no way this happens, no circumstance whatsoever.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
And a lot of that is just, this is sclerotic Arab world thinking dating back to the 1950s, where every Arab state basically said, we are not taking in Palestinians. We want them to stay where they are, even if it means that they stay there in misery, to make them living symbols of the Arab world's opposition to Israel.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
This is some seriously demented thinking that has brought us inexorably to where we are today. In other words, it kept the entire region on a war footing because they insisted on keeping this misery at a high level. This has to end, and I actually think that Egypt should play a role here. I think you mentioned before that Qataris should take in some of these refugees.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
I think the Turks, who are also sponsors of Hamas, they should take in refugees. The Iranians should. The Malaysians should. Every one of these patrons of Hamas should be forced to take in, I don't know, a half million, a quarter million, whatever it is, to pay penance for the war that they helped to create.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
I think that's where the Arabs wanted to head. I think the Israelis have another idea. I think Trump doesn't really care which one prevails as long as a deal gets done. And so let's see. Let's see what kinds of creativity gets kind of injected into the equation here. And I do think creativity is going to be what's important. The Arabs are not terribly creative here.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
I think Trump is more than happy to be creative. The Israelis just don't want to be saddled with this burden alone. They don't want to pay for this. And they certainly don't want to allow for Hamas to stay. I think they'd be fine with letting all these other people stay as long as they're not culpable. that they're not responsible for what happens to them.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
He's replenished a lot of the other arsenal that they had depleted over a course of time where the Biden administration was refusing to replenish. So the Israelis are made whole militarily. They now have the political backing of the president. The president says he wants to see all the hostages released and he wants Hamas out of the Gaza Strip.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
And as long as things get rebuilt in such a way that keeps Israel safe for whatever happens next. And I think that's, you got to understand that's Israel's big motivator here. This isn't, it's never been about collective punishment. It's never been about anything other than getting Hamas out of there so that Israel knows that it can live
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
peacefully without worrying about thousands of rockets or thousands of murderers coming across the border and slaughtering citizens who were going to a rock concert.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
You know, it's actually pretty simple. The Israelis have offered six weeks of additional calm. They basically said, look, we just started Ramadan. You want quiet, you want food, you want medicine, you want, you know, all the things that you want to keep your population happy. We want that too. Just keep quiet. And then after that, give us two more weeks of quiet until the end of Passover.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
That's what they told Hamas. Now, the big question now in my mind is, does Hamas agree? Right? Because Israel's ready. If it needs to, it'll go back into Gaza and it can start fighting this war again. And they're ready to do it now because they're not ready to go to phase two of a hostage deal, at least as it was written, because that would mean leaving Hamas in place.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
That is something that, I mean, this government in Israel will not abide by that. There is no chance that Bibi Netanyahu will agree to that. So they offered something else. That plan, that extra six weeks, Trump, Witkoff and others, they're behind it now. That means that everything's aligned. The only thing that's out of alignment right now is Hamas itself.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
And that I think has a lot to do with the pressure that we just saw the president put on the group. He's threatening hell if they don't work with the system that he's created. And I think actually, that leverage may yet work.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
It won't solve for the war long-term, at least not yet, but it might buy us another six weeks of quiet, calm, and maybe during that time, we can see some additional plans come into place, more negotiations that might take things in a better direction.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
So right now there's very little else that the president could do to tip the scales in Israel's favor. What he has done, though, and we've just learned about this over the last 24 hours, is he has actually dispatched Steve Witkoff and his team. This is the president's envoy to the Middle East. He's negotiating directly with Hamas.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
My pleasure. And you can feel free to sell that Gazalago t-shirt. That's all you.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
I don't know what they're talking about behind closed doors, but I think it's fascinating that he's talking to them with one of his staff, and then he's tweeting at them saying, I'm going to destroy you if you don't do what I ask you to do. So this is hardball that we're watching in play. I'll be fascinated to see what happens.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
I think Hamas is ready to fight this thing to the finish, but I think that would be disastrous for Gaza. I would welcome a Reagan-esque plan like we saw in Lebanon, where Hamas is put on a boat or a plane. The top leaders are sent out of the Gaza Strip, never to be returned. that would be the ideal outcome.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
That way, Israel doesn't have to keep fighting and we can start to think about maybe what happens in Gaza when the fighting finally stops.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
Yeah, I mean, let's be real here. We've been negotiating with terrorists for a long time. I mean, we negotiated our own defeat in Afghanistan under Joe Biden, and we continue to negotiate with Iran, the world's largest state sponsor of terror. I mean, I think the United States has given up on this. This was a principle first introduced into American foreign policy under Richard Nixon.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
It, I think, held for a time, has not held for quite a long time since. I mean, we have indirect negotiations with Hezbollah that are ongoing. I mean, we don't hold ourselves to this. I think it's interesting that the conversations are happening. But the only thing that I would say that it's positive about this is that it does look like, again, that the president's playing hardball.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
with his envoys. And I think that's really, if you're going to negotiate with the terrorist group, you should be baring your teeth and threatening to destroy them. That's the kind of negotiation I can endorse.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
Yeah, there certainly is a danger. And I think, you know, we may have actually reached that point where Hamas is saying, you already gave the Israelis what you said you were going to give them. I've already seen your threats. Not sure what else you can do to us because we're effectively destroyed anyway. So you know what? We're going to go back to the fighting just to stick a finger in your eye.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
And that's actually quite possible. But I got to say, you know, like I said, the Israelis have everything they need in order to win this battle. I will warn, though, that whatever fighting does take place in Gaza, it will not be easy to watch. Because when you think about it, Hamas is already, I mean, they started at, let's say, 35,000 fighters. between five and 10,000.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
Most of these guys are new recruits. They're young men in track suits who probably don't even know how to fire their AK-47s properly. They are not hardened fighters. They're gonna get shellacked on the battlefield. I think that is fairly safe to say. The Hamas doesn't have any above ground infrastructure. Most of that underground infrastructure is not usable.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
Sure, they probably have some missiles left, some rockets, None of those are going to be particularly effective against Iron Dome. I just don't see how they think they're going to win this thing. You get a sense that they're willing to fight and die for the cause and maybe try to inspire future generations of hatred against Israel, the United States, the West.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
That may be their strategy, but this could be rather grim to watch.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
Yeah, I mean, look, that was part of their play before, right? I mean, the Hamas strategy was, I think, twofold. One was to try to draw in the rest of the Iranian axis, so get Iran and the militias in Syria, the militias in Iraq, Hezbollah, the Houthis, get everybody fighting and, you know... in their mind, destroy Israel. That obviously didn't happen.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
We saw a lack of unity, a lack of discipline, a lack of planning. So that failed. So you got a chance that maybe they could try it again with whatever fronts are left, although most of those are weakened proxies of Iran and probably have less of a stomach right now than they did the last time around.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
Then you get to the question, as you raise, of trying to wield public opinion, international opinion against Israel. I'm not sure right now that it would work as well. I'm sure you're going to have bleeding hard liberals from Europe just joining the bandwagon of slamming Israel and working with the UN. But the big difference maker right now is the Biden administration was at least
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
buying some of it, or they weren't rejecting all of it. Trump is not going to have any of it right now. I think he's made it clear that he doesn't place any stock in the UN. He doesn't have a particularly good relationship with the Europeans right now. That's, of course, largely due to what's been going on in Ukraine and Russia. But the idea that
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
that Trump would care about what any of these actors might say, or that Israel... I mean, Israel's long stopped caring about this. You just get a sense that this war continues in accordance with Israel's plans. And I think that's what I would expect right now.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
There are, of course, unintended consequences with any war, and I would say Israel still needs to watch for a combined attack by some of these proxies that we've talked about, maybe even Iran itself. That's a danger. Maybe there are some other surprises that come out here.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
But again, I would say that if you look at things on balance, Israel came out stronger at the end of this first phase of the fighting, ending sometime in January. And they have only, I think, gotten stronger since Trump came in. And I think the Iranian axis looks weaker. I can't imagine Hamas is looking on and saying, yeah, we got this.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
So, it's an interesting question because the way that Hamas always worked is that you had these sure counsels. where different leaders from different parts of the Middle East were weighing in, and they were kind of almost democratic. I don't want to take that far, right?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
But they have leaders in Gaza, they have leaders in the West Bank, in Lebanon, in Iran, in Turkey, in Malaysia, in all these different places, and they would all weigh in on particular issues, major decisions undertaken by the terrorist organization. On October 7th, it really does appear that it was Yahya Senwar, the head of Hamas, the guy that hatched this plan in the first place and launched it.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
He was the guy who was driving all of this. And then once the war began, he was the guy that was making all the decisions because at the end of the day, if he didn't want to stop fighting... He wasn't going to stop fighting. If he wanted to keep going, he was going to keep going. Today, the guy that's making those decisions is his brother, Mohamed Sinwar.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
And he still has, I think, a great deal of control of whatever is left of the Hamas fighting force. I don't expect him to last very long, but I do think that the center of gravity remains in Gaza primarily. I do think that Iran has a lot to say about this, but how much communication they're able to have with the fighting force, that's an open question.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
These are the sorts of things that I question right now, and I don't really know how to answer. The other part of this equation is the Qataris. And I do think that there, the Qataris are running interference for Hamas. They're the ones who are saying that certain proposals are unacceptable, even if they're not even sharing them with the Hamas operatives that are there.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
And I actually think that it's for this reason, among many others, that the U.S., when this crisis is over... We need to have a serious accounting of whether we want to continue to treat Qatar as an ally. I think we should strip them of their major non-NATO ally status. I think we should consider removing the Al Udeid air base from Doha. It's our largest air base in the Middle East.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 8th, 2025: Trump’s Ultimatum to Hamas & China’s War Warning
I just don't think this is a regime we can trust because I think they're trying to tip the scales in favor of Hamas through these negotiations.