Ryan McBeth
Appearances
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Yeah. So this war has been great for China and it's been great for India because they've been getting all sorts of cheap oil. And China has essentially been ignoring sanctions. In fact, just today I made a video about there were GPS modules that could help avoid jamming that were showing up inside of Ukraine on Russian missile copies. that came from China.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So essentially they're using Chinese chips to put into these missiles that can help avoid GPS jamming. They're called CRPA chips.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Absolutely. So what these chips do, if you look at a military grade GPS or even perhaps the GPS that's in a marine GPS, like the thing that's on your boat, these chips, they detect false signals and it can detect them because it'll say, all right, I know how loud a GPS signal actually is.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
And if you know how loud a GPS signal is, then you can figure out, like, all right, you have this place over here that's louder than what the normal signal should be, so I need to concentrate on this signal over here. So imagine a pizza, right? And there's a bunch of pepperoni on that pizza. Each one of those pieces of pepperoni is an antenna.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
This is called a controlled reception pattern antenna, or PA. And essentially, if you're getting a lot of signal from a bunch of pepperoni on one side of the pizza, then you know, OK, well, let me look toward this other side of the pizza where I'm getting the correct signal. And a lot of those chips are manufactured in China.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
And Russia has somehow been able to get their hands on these chips and is using them in Ukraine.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
That's the scary part. The scary part is we could say to China, listen, you need to do better at making sure that these chips aren't falling into Russian hands. And if you don't do that, we're going to sanction you or we're going to put tariffs on your goods coming in. If there's one thing China doesn't like is when you take their money. Right.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
There's a limited market for GPS chips, but there's a huge world market for like cheap toasters. So we have a bigger lever now. Yeah, we have a bigger library here. There's a limited number of people you can sell GPS to. So it's one of those things where we could probably stop this if we wanted to stop this or China doesn't care, which is scary as well.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
No, I don't think you're necessarily a conspiracy theorist. I don't really see that as a possibility. I say that because if Russia didn't have this tech, it would make it a lot harder for them to launch missiles. And nobody's winning on this.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
If we can attrit Russia, it would have been better if this happened two years ago. But if we can get Russia to the point where they literally can't wage war anymore, they can't fire these missiles, they can't fire these small, cheap drones, they can't attack Ukraine's electric infrastructure. The story on the ground would have been a lot different today.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
You know, maybe that could be a thing. That's a very real politic kind of idea as well.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Yes and no. So at the start of the war, remember the Baraktar?
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Yeah, they had songs about Baraktar and they had a little music video and all that. So the Baraktar, the Baraktar TB2, Turkish drone, Ukraine was using that thing for ISR, intelligence surveillance reconnaissance. They're also dropping micromunitions from that drone to hit various platforms, especially on that Russian 40 mile long convoy that was headed into Ukraine.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
After July, September of 2022, you didn't really see the Barak Tar in the air anymore because Russia figured out how to do electronic warfare against it. And then by 2023, for the most part, you didn't see the drone anymore at all. It just wasn't effective.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So we all thought, all right, well, if we're going to use electronic warfare against drones, that's where you saw these Star Wars drone guns, these massive looking black guns that you'd point at the drone. And essentially with that, when the drone is flying, you point the drone gun at the drone and the gun fires a very high powered shutdown signal.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So it essentially cycles through every single possible shutdown signal in its dictionary. Yeah. You also have regular GPS denial, GPS jamming, signals jamming. Essentially the 900 megahertz band that you'd use in your cell phone for moving drones around, that's no longer usable. So you're at like 300 megahertz or you're at 1 gigahertz now.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So you're using essentially UHF to control a lot of these drones and send signal back or LDAN.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
It's spy versus spy. You're absolutely right. It is spy versus spy. One guy comes up with an idea. The other guy comes up with a countermeasure. And one of the ways to prevent jamming is to use fiber optic. Essentially, you have your drone and on the back of the drone is a spool of fiber optic wire and it unspools as you fly. Now, there's some disadvantages to this.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
The first disadvantage is that this drone, it can't really be recovered. It's going one way. You could theoretically fly it back, but then you lose half your distance. So a lot of these drones are one-way attack drones. These fiber optic drones are one-way attack drones. They're going one way. Initially, the range was about 10 kilometers, five miles or so, 15 kilometers.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Now we're getting up to 50 kilometers. So we're talking 30 miles of range. Of wire.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Fiber optic is pretty small, but the spools are getting pretty big. The fiber optic thing, I'm actually giving a briefing in Ohio in a couple of weeks to a bunch of Intel guys about the current status of drones in Ukraine.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Oh, absolutely. You can't really use them in urban areas. You can't really use them in areas that are filled with foliage because they could snap. The other disadvantage is that you can't fire from the same place twice. Because now you have what looks like Christmas garland. They glint in the sunlight. And there are pictures in Ukraine of wires everywhere, in the trees, everywhere.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
I am honored. I hope your fans badgered you into this. I really appreciate the opportunity to talk again.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Yeah, with the fiber optic drone, that's a new thing. But the advantage of it is that it can't be jammed. And if you can make it fiber optic and also put a little bit of artificial intelligence on it, now if the wire does break, it might continue on until it sees a target that's in its database and attack that.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
It's already a thing. Ukraine actually has, it's almost like a copy of the Shahid. Seth, that was the name of it. Seth kind of looks like a mini Iranian Shahid. But Ukraine has a drone where they essentially set the drone up and they say, OK, you need to go after a target that looks like this. And if that target isn't available, then you need to find another kind of target.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So you essentially program the stuff drone where you say, all right, find something that looks like this tank. If you can't find a tank, find an armored personnel carrier. If you can't find an armored personnel carrier, find a truck and so on. And then they just launch that and it's totally automated. We already have computer controlled killers. That's already here.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
It's six to eight weeks now. Wow. Six to eight weeks. At the start of the war, it was six to eight months. It's down to six to eight weeks. Ukraine just recently in September, I think it was the 13th Brigade of their National Guard. They did an all... drone attack. They call them ground drones, but essentially drones with machine guns mounted on them.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
These drones that have machine guns on them are controlled by aerial drones. So you don't have line of sight to one of those drones, but you can bounce a signal off a hovering drone. So people were controlling these ground drones with machine guns on them through drones that were hovering, and they actually were able to attack a Russian position and they were able to hold that ground.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So one of the ways you can cheat jamming is by going up and down a frequency all at the same time. So imagine everybody has a decoder wheel and you all know what letter to flip it to at a certain second. Imagine that, but it's at a certain frequency. So you might be at 2255 for one millisecond, then you bump up to 2270, then you go down to 2258. That's actually one of the reasons GPS was invented.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
It was for something called PNT, precision time navigation. The GPS sends out a time signal. So every single American military radio in the world is getting the same exact kind signal, so it knows when to jump up and down that frequency spectrum.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So you can talk on the radio, and to you it sounds perfectly normal, but you're actually jumping up and down the radio dial, kind of like you're in a car with one of those old knobs. going back and forth. But the song is exactly, imagine the same song playing on every channel.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Yes, and for air raid warnings. So essentially, there's an airbase called Ingalls. It's in Russia. And this air base holds a lot of their bombers. There's other bomber bases around Russia. But we have, I think it's about 250 some military satellites. I believe all of Europe has maybe 13 or 20. So people think with a satellite, oh, I'm in my satellite.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
When I go over an area, if it orbits 90 minutes, then I have 90 minutes until I can see that picture again. And that's not true because the Earth is moving below you. So it might be 15, 18 hours before you go over the exact same spot again. So the way to fix that, the way to get constant ISR on a runway or on something else that you want to look at is to have multiple satellites in orbit.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
And one satellite is coming over the horizon just as the other one is leaving. So essentially, Ukraine is using a lot of our intelligence on what the Russians are doing with their aircraft. So that way they know, OK, the Russians just launched a raid. So now we need to get off. are fighters in the air to try to shoot down any glide bombs or any cruise missiles that are being launched.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Without that intelligence, they're still going to detect the raid, but it's going to be after the missiles have entered Ukrainian airspace, and then you're playing catch up. It's better to have assets in place, and you can pretty much guess where those cruise missiles are going to end up by the path that the bombers are taking.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So we stopped that and now we're sharing that information.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
That probably wasn't our proudest moment.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Well, the logic was we can turn this off anytime we want. Your people are going to suffer. Make whatever concessions you need to make to end this war. That's the logic. You can call it wrong. But I don't know if you remember the Army of Darkness, right? With good ass shoots bad ass. And he goes, good, bad. I'm the guy with the gun. And sometimes it really does come down to that.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
We're the people with the intelligence. We can save your country or we cannot save your country. It would behoove you to do what we say.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Quite a few satellites. I'm doing this off the top of my head. I'm sure someone's going to write and go, technically, it's 249.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
It's certainly possible to build factories. Now, putting satellites in space is always going to be hard. There's a limited amount of lift capacity that Europe has. The European Space Agency, they do have the ability to launch satellites, but not at the cadence, not at the operational tempo the US has, especially with SpaceX. So Europe can certainly start building more factories.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
There is an effort in Germany right now to take some of the old car factories and some of the old people who used to work in these car factories and put them to work building tanks. Thank you.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Well, it's because a lot of them are being paid.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
That's the truth of the matter, right? Yeah, just a lot of them are just being paid. And it's their job. I can't really blame them all that much because they're getting paid to do that. And a lot of times they actually get paid for engagement. I see. So if you come up with a post that gets a lot of engagement and a lot of comments... then you get a bonus for that.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
The advantage of that is, at least from the Russian standpoint, is that you want to write the craziest stuff possible, right? Because the whole point is to get engagement for that post.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Thank you. Thank you. We've been saying this for over 10 years. Then they said, sure.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
I think you're absolutely correct. Europe should be able to defend itself.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Look, when they join NATO, there is an agreement. You're going to spend 2% of your GDP on defense. And some nations still haven't done that. It's been three years since the war in Ukraine and Canada still doesn't have their defense spending up to 2% of their GDP. They neighbor Russia, for God's sake. Yeah. They do that.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
I believe Poland is trying to get to, I want to say six divisions. So you figure divisions, 15,000 soldiers. One thing, I was just in Poland recently on a NATO trip. And in Poland, it's cool to be in the military.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Poland has really stepped up to the plate. But look, when I was in Poland, I spoke with this woman. She is a teacher, like a kindergarten teacher. And she's dealing with all of these Ukrainian refugees. And it's horrible. These are kids who've lost their fathers. These are kids who can't go home. And it's horrible.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
And this was right after our Secretary of Defense went to Europe and defended Europe. And these people are mad at me. And I'm like, dude, I'm on your side here. Sorry, you just happen to be standing here.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Yeah, I just happen to be standing there. That was kind of an issue for these guys. But I wanted to hear what they had to say, because Poland is a major U.S. ally. We're very lucky to have them. They're taking things seriously to the point where, look, Poland just bought more HIMARS missile launchers. HIMARS is a multiple rocket launch system that's basically fired off a truck.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
It was very effective in Ukraine. Poland bought more HIMARS launchers than we have. They bought M1 tanks. They bought Korean K2 tanks as well. What do you got? We'll take it. And I believe it was Latvia who wants to start mining their border again. Mining which border? I assume the Russian border and the Belarusian border? Well, technically, Poland borders Russia as well, Kaliningrad.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So that would be ideal. I think Poland is part of the landmine ban treaty, the anti-personnel ban, the Ottawa Treaty. They're considering pulling out of the Ottawa Treaty just because landmines have been pretty darn effective.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Yeah. I mean, a lot of it is if you go to work every single day and you hate your job and you can't really figure out what's wrong with your life. And then you go home and you turn on the computer and all these people are telling you this is what's wrong with your life because we're giving all this money to Ukraine instead of the American people.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Britain can field, I believe, two divisions. France, I want to say they can field three. And Germany, they want to get at the point where they can field three and an additional fourth of reservists. I believe Germany is actually considering bringing back conscription, which they ended in, I think, 2012.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
The German soldiers that I have met have been incredible. They are highly professional. They're motivated. It's just that their government just failed them. Their government let their military go to hell. But there's a lot of good German soldiers there who are dedicated and are committed. They're very serious about the threat.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Look, I've been to Europe recently, and the further you go east, the scarier Russia gets. and the more concerned people are.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Estonia has some of the best cyber troops on the planet. That's because of the soldier of Tallinn. There was a statue of a Russian soldier that this town, I think it was in Tallinn, and they decided to move it to a Russian cemetery. When Russia found out that they did that, Russia cyber attacked Estonia. They turned off the electricity, didn't they, and the internet? They turned off banking.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
They turned off a lot of stuff. After that, Estonia said this is never going to happen again. And so they probably have some of the best cyber troops in NATO.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
When you look like Lithuania, their major brigade is the Iron Wolf Brigade. So a brigade of 4,400 to 4,700 people. And their brigade is actually kind of neat because the king of Lithuania, back in whatever century, he went to sleep and he had the dream of an iron wolf that howled with the voices of a thousand wolves.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Where he woke up, they decided that's where they're going to start the city of Vilnia. Right. So there's a lot of history to that brigade. And the Lithuanians in that unit are very highly motivated people. But there's only one brigade, right? Lithuania is only so big.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Then it's really easy to come to that point of view. That Ukraine is the bad guy. Russia is a Christian nation that's just trying to get rid of the gay people.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
The problem is that they have to. The ultimate plan is taking the Baltics and then taking Poland. They have to do that. Russia has to do that. Why? Because right now their border is about 1,600 miles or so that's undefended. There's no major rivers. There's no massive mountain ranges. So if you take Ukraine, then you have the Carpathia Mountains to the west.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
And then if you take Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and then you take Poland, then you've taken a 1600 mile border and you've shrunk it down to 150 miles.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
That's their belief, because for very many years, Russia has essentially relied on general winter. to defend itself. When the French invade, then General Winter comes out and destroys your army. When the Germans invade, General Winter comes and destroys your army. And it worked until one day it won't. So that's Russia's feeling, that they feel like they need space so they won't be invaded.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
It does seem a little odd, but that's just how Russia feels. That's their basic psyche. To secure our borders, we used to have that with the Warsaw Pact. We no longer have that, so we need to secure our borders from the West.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
I don't believe Putin's ever come out and actually said that. But logically, why are you going to invade Ukraine? You can say, well, it's for resources. You could also say, well, it's because there are family members who live in Russia who also have relatives in Ukraine.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
And if Ukraine is kind of moving toward the West, then it's really tough when your family members in Russia call Ukraine and they have all these freedoms and you don't. That's a tough one to swallow.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
You know, look, every country has a right to enter into a defensive agreement with any other country. Look, Russia had a defensive agreement with Cuba. They put missiles in Cuba.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Yeah, we were like, no way, man. But we're allowed to say that and they're allowed to enter into an agreement with whatever country. Right. We've had a communist country across the border with the U.S. 90 miles away. Right.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
I think the difference here is that NATO is not an offensive organization. NATO is a standards organization.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
You're absolutely correct. And they deserved it, right? You don't want to get bombed by NATO. maybe don't put people into rape camps.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
No, it's not totally insane. When you think about it, although the mission in Afghanistan wasn't really a NATO mission, many NATO members, including Ukraine, supplied troops. A lot of those nations supplied troops for Afghanistan. You might be able to make that argument, but look, one of the deals is that a lot of NATO countries, they don't have the expeditionary capabilities.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
There's really only four expeditionary, four and a half expeditionary militaries in the world. That's the United States, the United Kingdom.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
france russia and to a lesser extent china and by expeditionary these are nations that can at scale move troops and effectively get supplies to those troops in order to have those troops fight in a different area of the world most countries have a little bit of expeditionary capability but for the most part most armies of europe are defensive armies
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So the idea of saying, oh, well, NATO could invade Russia, for the most part, a lot of these militaries are purely defensive in nature.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
They just don't have the logistical ability, the logistical lift to move outside their own borders with very small exceptions like humanitarian war, like East Timor, or if there's an earthquake somewhere in Indonesia, you might be able to get some troops over to Indonesia to help out. For the most part, it's just not built like that. Their militaries aren't built to be expeditionary.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Why is Harry Potter so popular? because kids have no agency. Kids don't even get to decide what they eat. When you read Harry Potter, it's about this powerful wizard who knows secrets that adults don't know. So when you're one of these people who can't figure out why their life sucks so much, It's like reading Harry Potter. I know the truth. I know the secret.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Israel is another example. I've had Syrians talk to me, and these Syrians have said, how come Syria doesn't invade Israel? I'm like, dude, Syria can't invade Israel.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
get a couple of miles into the border, maybe. And you know what? Israel can't invade Syria either outside of a couple of kilometers. They just don't have the logistical capacity to do that. War is hard and logistics is even harder.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
think about it this way. That is the argument that we can look at. But when you're Russia and you've always been in this tech backwater, when you're Russia and you don't necessarily have any defensive borders yourself, you might get a little concerned about that. Russians are thinking like Russians at this point. I'm thinking like an American where I can look at NATO and go,
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Many of the countries in NATO don't really have any offensive capability. But if you're a Russian, are you really going to necessarily count on that?
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Well, I mean, the proof is in the pudding.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So I don't even know what militarily what it would take to actually perform an invasion of Russia. And actually, when you think about it, even though Russia has been attrited to a certain point regarding manpower and regarding vehicles, one of the huge issues is that Russia has been fighting for three years. You learn things. You learn things while you're fighting.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
And so now Russia has all of this real world experience, this genuine, honest to God, real world experience in fighting a modern war. They are way more dangerous now than they were three years ago, even though technically their capabilities have been attrited to a certain point. They can build up their military again.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
They can certainly be a real threat, especially with all of this knowledge that they've developed.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
You're absolutely correct. It's very scary when you think about it. For the longest time, Russia just didn't have the ability to learn. The Russian army was very inflexible when it came down to things like call for fire. Let's say you have a unit advancing and they run into some trouble. In an American unit, oftentimes you might be able to call for artillery.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
And if that artillery has already been allocated to you, you'll be able to call that artillery and you'll be able to have that artillery land on the bad guys. You'll be able to call that artillery in. Whereas Russia, a lot of their artillery fires are pre-planned.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
About a year ago, they started using the Orlan-10, which was a drone, to actually perform on-demand artillery attacks against Ukrainian forces. And that's something they learned to do. Like they slowly figured it out. And it used to be that the Russian army was very inflexible. And that isn't the case anymore. So they're a lot more dangerous than they were just a couple of years ago.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Biden is corrupt and he was giving money to his cronies and laundering it through Ukraine. So it's really no different than Harry Potter.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So that's a very good question. And there's a lot of guys who died in Kursk, a lot of Ukrainians who died taking Kursk. And I believe their whole idea was we're going to take Kursk. It's going to force a lot of Russian units all the way over to another part of the front lines, pressure off our front lines. It was a gamble.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
And it didn't really work because instead of moving forces from one part of the front lines to Kursk, they managed to get North Koreans to fight for them. And it was a gamble and it didn't pay off. And for the most part, Ukraine has been pushed out of Kursk.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Initially, it served the purpose of, all right, we're going to take some land. That way, when we negotiate with Russia, we'll give back Kursk if you give back these other lands that we have. And right now, Ukraine is fighting a rearguard action. So I don't want to say they're no longer there. They are still there, but they are slowly getting pushed out.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
And they're doing it in a way Ukraine is doing what's called a rearguard action. So they're still fighting to allow their troops and equipment to leave while they still have them rather than try to stay and fight this onslaught.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
You're absolutely correct. It is a very fluid situation. And the fact is that Russia really doesn't have any motivation to stop the war. And that's mainly because when it comes to their goals, they haven't completed all of their goals yet. And their goal is, of course, to take over all of Ukraine and then eventually go to the Baltics and then Poland.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
They have to do that in order to secure their country from what they perceive as NATO aggression. So Russia is under absolutely no motivation because they believe if they can keep pushing and pushing, eventually Ukraine will collapse, at least according to them.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
That's certainly a possibility. Now, the kind of ceasefire that Russia wants is one where Russia remains in possession of Ukrainian land. And eventually there's going to have to be some sort of give and take. As much as I'd hate to put it like this, Ukraine is likely going to have to give up some land in order to ensure some kind of peace.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
I foresee the Donbass, mainly Luhansk and Donetsk, becoming a sort of, not Russian satellite, but almost like a no man's land or like the Sinai Peninsula was in Egypt when Egypt and Israel agreed to peace and there were peacekeepers in the Sinai Peninsula.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So perhaps the Donbass becomes a sort of free state that is perhaps aligned close with Russia and you have a peacekeeping force, D4, let's say, Donbass force. that patrols that area. Russia is limited to having a certain number of tanks near that area, and Ukraine is limited to having a certain number of tanks and troops in that area.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
And perhaps in return, they get Kyrgyzstan and Zaporizhia back as territories. So who's going to patrol that? The UN? Europe? That's a good question. It could be the UN. KFOR was a mainly NATO operation. That was the Kosovo Stabilization Force. The MFO, Multinational Force and Observers, is a joint, I believe it's 13 countries, United States, Japan, Norway, Colombia, Fiji.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
They have a military and Fiji actually does the rotation. So it could be something like that where a third party force is used. The ideal situation might be some non-aligned countries like Brazil, Indonesia. They could supply troops and different countries would pay for the upkeep of those troops while they're on rotation. It could be something that lasts 20 years.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
The MFO, Multinational Force and Observers in Egypt have been around since the 1980s.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
The Fijians, in my experience, are highly professional soldiers. They essentially have three battalions. One battalion rotates to Egypt, one battalion rotates to Lebanon, and the other battalion stays home. It's mainly a reserve army, and these guys go back to their plantations and farming. They leave again and go on another rotation. They're highly professional soldiers.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
That is the fear. The fear is that Russia would use any kind of time. Ideally, a ceasefire will usually last for 30 days. And that just means, all right, there's certain agreements that ceasefire, you won't shoot at each other. That'll give a chance for some soldiers to rotate out and rest. Now, you're not going to rebuild your forces over those 30 days.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
But ideally, a ceasefire turns into a permanent peace treaty. And after that, we have negotiations on what troops are allowed and what areas of demilitarized zone and so on. So I could certainly see something like that happening eventually. And it almost certainly benefits Russia.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
But depending on the terms of the ceasefire, if Russia has very favorable terms where they say, OK, Ukraine's army is limited to 200 tanks and they're not allowed to join NATO and they're not allowed to raise an army larger than 100,000 troops, that's an issue. That's an issue for the defense of Ukraine. And in 10 years, Russia could try again.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
That's a very good question. I've actually been in touch with some Alawites who've been telling me that they have elements of HTS rolling through Alawite cities, just murdering military age males. They cut off water, they cut off power. So it's forcing people to leave their homes. But hey, there's a curfew. Oh, you're on the street. Bang. Right.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So we are sending weapons to Ukraine now, and this is being recorded on March 23rd, 2025. Right. So if you're listening to this on Monday, maybe not.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Left your home to try to find water, try to charge your phone.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
that does appear that seems to be happening i don't know whether that is government policy because you have the current leader of the current de facto leader of syria right now who's now dressing up in a suit and shaking hands and looking like he's a perfectly normal politician i don't know whether this is hts doing this as a matter of government policy or it's a rogue group from hts
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
One interesting thing is that the HTS could be considered the army of Syria right now. They reached out to the Kurds and it appears that the Kurds have said, yes, we will join the federal army of Syria. Now, they might be separate Kurdish brigades, but it looks like they might be under a unified command.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So as of right now, I don't know what's going on when it comes to who is actually committing these atrocities inside Syria. The other side of the coin is that there may be some Syrians who I don't want to say don't care, but might be looking the other way because they're Alawites who were in charge for quite a few years and now they're getting what's due.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
That's a hard thing to say to a family who's just been murdered.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
One of the issues that you're running into is that we don't have a lot of media in Syria. So we're getting a lot of stuff secondhand. And so we don't really know exactly who is doing this. And the people who are doing this aren't necessarily going to tell you. Like I said, we really don't know right now, but it does seem like Alawites are being dragged out of their houses and murdered. Okay.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Awkward ending. It's a pretty awkward ending for the Alawites, too. Look, everyone has their fingers crossed that this conflict in Syria was going to maybe lead to an Islamic-ish democracy. It'll definitely be based on Islam, but maybe there'll be rights for minority groups in there as well. Maybe, look, we haven't seen Sharia law pop up in Syria. So I am still cautiously optimistic.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
It's one of those things to back all the way up. Yes. In the big scheme of things, essentially the United States knows that it's going to be fighting China in 2027, 2028. President Xi Jinping has said you must, to the PLA, People's Liberation Army, you must be ready by 2027 to attack Taiwan. My guess is that 2028 is probably a better date because that's when there's an American election.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
But unfortunately, there's really no Western journalist in Syria that can kind of explain what's going on right now.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
I believe an election in Taiwan as well. So 2028 would probably be a better date. We have essentially three years to get... troops over to the Pacific theater. The easiest way of doing that is to cut the 84,000 troops that are in Europe. And in a lot of ways, it's kind of a shame, but Ukraine is becoming a victim of real politic.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Essentially, we need to get troops the heck out of Europe, and I believe they want this war over. No one's going to win, but if Russia takes over Ukraine, that's fine. If Ukraine kicks Russia out, that's fine. If Russia takes some of Ukraine's land and leaves the rest alone, that's fine as well. They don't care anymore.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
They just need to get the heck out of Europe to start putting troops in Taiwan, most likely the Philippines and Australia. So that's the basic strategy here. And so the president really doesn't care. He just wants the war over. And if Ukraine has to make concessions for the war to end, that's fine as well. Because at this point, it's going to become Europe's problem. Hey, go take care of that.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Because the last thing the administration wants... Is Russia collapsing, which could happen around 2026, 2027, maybe?
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Yeah, vehicles are a little bit different. So you can actually look at vehicles and you can look at their marshalling yards and their storage yards. And essentially, they don't have any more cheap armored vehicles. I mean, stuff that was made during Soviet times that they can refurbish. I think maybe 200 or 400 vehicles left. Wow.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
You can actually look at satellite footage and see these depots getting smaller and smaller.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
No, they're out of MTLBs pretty much. It's basically a box that carries troops. Okay. Really no guns on it. And these are very useful as battle taxis. Get your soldiers to battle. So essentially, Russia, they're never going to run out of tanks. But instead of 12 tanks in a company, there'll be seven. I see. Or six. That's kind of the problem they're going to enter.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
And you're already seeing Russian soldiers use things like mopeds or motorcycles to cross no man's land to perform attacks. So I think what we're afraid of is essentially Ukraine missed its window not to win, but to lose less. Okay. And because of that, what we're afraid of is that if Russia collapses internally in 2027, 2028, we're trying to fight China.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Now we have Russia dissolved into multiple warlord states, each of which have nuclear weapons. Now, granted, those nuclear weapons are controlled from Moscow. They still have the permission of action links. They still have the codes to operate those weapons. But that's not good.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
And so the last thing we want is to be running around Russia trying to recover all these nuclear weapons while we're simultaneously trying to fight China. That makes sense. Horrible as it is to say, it's easier to let Russia win.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
So it was Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Ukraine. When the Soviet Union fell, there were nuclear weapons in Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Ukraine. And again, those permissive action links, the things that actually, the code to make the nuclear weapon explode, they were still controlled by Moscow.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
But Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan signed a treaty saying, we promise you won't attack us if we give these nuclear weapons back. We encouraged Ukraine to do this. Hey, we got your back. We'll protect you if you give these nuclear weapons back. And apparently we haven't been sticking to that promise. That makes sense.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Yes, that's correct. Eventually, you will be able to do that. That's what we're afraid of. And also, a lot of people don't know that you can't just take a nuclear weapon off the shelf and detonate it. The reason we came up with these permissive action links is that originally our nuclear weapons were essentially protected with bike locks. Like back in the 1950s, 1960s.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Yeah. One Air Force guy grabbed a plane that happened to have a nuclear weapon on it, took off, flew around for a while, and Russia went absolutely nuts that we allowed that to happen.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Don't even know if this guy knew whether he had a nuclear weapon on board or not, but yeah.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
This guy, he noticed that there was an attack. This thing was Stanislav Petrov. This guy was on duty one night and he noticed, I think it was three nuclear weapons that were headed toward the USSR. And he was like, all right, this is definitely an attack. We are within our rights to counterattack, but why would the US only attack with three?
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Well, correct. And he essentially saved the world that night. Yikes. Stanislav Petrov.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
It would certainly behoove us to make sure that no nuclear weapons were in Europe and Europe would certainly be helping. But, you know, those darn terrorists, if you're a warlord and you want some easy money and some terrorist goes, you know what, I'll give you a couple million dollars, this nuclear warhead. What are you going to do?
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
Well, they'll figure it out. Yeah. Eventually they will figure out it was you because every nuclear weapon, it decays in a certain way and you can figure out where this thing was manufactured.
The Jordan Harbinger Show
1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop
That's the biggest issue. And as crazy as it is and horrible to look at Ukraine and say, you know what? Sorry, Charlie. We need to worry about China. That's the truth.