The President's Daily Brief
November 1st, 2024: Iran Planning Another Major Strike on Israel, Putin’s Military Purge, & North Korea’s Missile Milestone
Fri, 01 Nov 2024
In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: We start with a new report from Israeli intelligence indicating that Iran may be preparing for a significant attack on Israel, potentially timed before the U.S. presidential election on November 5th. Next, we dive into Vladimir Putin’s recent shake-up in military leadership, with at least ten Russian generals reportedly arrested on charges of fraud and corruption in recent months. North Korea just set a new record with its longest-ever ballistic missile flight. We’ll break down the details of this missile, which is said to be more agile and capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. And in today’s Back of the Brief: The U.S. Northern Command reports hundreds of unauthorized drone incursions at military sites across the country, raising concerns about potential security threats. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [email protected] Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What threat is Iran posing to Israel before the U.S. elections?
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Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We're starting today's show with a new report from Israeli intelligence that claims Iran is preparing to carry out another major attack on Israel, possibly before the U.S. presidential elections on 5 November. We'll have the developing details on that.
Later, Vladimir Putin, remember him? He's shaking up his military leadership with reports that at least 10 generals have been arrested in recent months on fraud and corruption charges. Fraud and corruption within the Russian military. Who would have thought it?
Plus, North Korea just set a new record with its longest ever ballistic missile flight, a missile said to be more agile and reportedly capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. And in today's back of the brief, U.S. Northern Command reports hundreds of unauthorized drone incursions over military sites across the country in recent years, posing, of course, potential security risks.
Yeah, that would make sense. Is it just me, or wouldn't it make sense to shoot down any unauthorized drones that are flying over sensitive sites? But first, today's PDB Spotlight. According to a report by Axios, Israeli intelligence suggests that Iran is preparing a massive retaliatory attack on Israel in the coming days, possibly before the U.S.
presidential election set, of course, for 5 November. Unlike the previous strikes, which hailed from Iranian territory, this one is expected to come from Iraqi territory. That means it's likely to be carried out by Iranian proxy groups, including Iraq's militias, using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles.
That is, after all, why the Iranian regime has spent all these years and money and effort to build their various proxy groups, so that they could strike at Israel without drawing return fire directly onto the Iranian regime itself.
Although at this stage, following two separate direct attacks on Iran by Israel in retaliation, the regime's concept of hiding behind their proxies might be wearing thin. Along those lines, Axios is reporting that carrying out the attack through pro-Iran militias in Iraq could be an attempt by Tehran to avoid another Israeli attack against strategic targets in Iran.
Meanwhile, two separate rocket barrages fired from Lebanon killed seven people in northern Israel on Thursday, hitting agricultural areas along the border. So much for the cautious optimism over possible ceasefire discussions between Israel and Hezbollah.
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Chapter 2: What changes are happening in Putin's military leadership?
His detention sparked discussions on political loyalty and accountability among Russia's military elite, with some observers drawing parallels to Soviet-era purges. Now, Ogloblin had been sentenced previously to four and a half years for embezzlement, and that was back in February of 2022, on separate charges.
But he was released early after testifying against his former superior, Vadim Shamarin, now the deputy chief of Russia's general staff. In a twist, O'Globelin's second arrest followed Shamarin's testimony against him, according to Russian newspaper Kommersant. Guess it comes down to which corrupt Russian general you're going to believe. It's sort of a he said, he said situation.
According to the report, Shamarin accepted kickbacks from a telecom manufacturer, later splitting the bribe with a Globlin. As part of a plea deal, Shamarin disclosed this information, which news source New Voice of Ukraine suggests may have been driven by a desire for revenge against his former subordinate. No, you think so?
That same Wednesday, the British Ministry of Defense noted a Globlin's arrest as a sign of Russia's increased scrutiny on current and former defense officials appointed by former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, now the Security Council Secretary.
According to John Foreman, a former British defense attaché, the FSB, Russia's intelligence agency, has been, in his words, quote, "...slowly but steadily working through corruption cases within the Defense Ministry." Foreman hints this crackdown could eventually target Sergei Shoigu himself, noting that Shoigu, nearing 70 years old, might soon be expendable to Putin.
Foreman stated, quote, next year might be a convenient time for Putin to thank him for his service, end quote. In just five months, at least 10 generals and senior defense ministry officials connected to Shoigu have been detained or prosecuted on fraud and corruption charges.
Notably, in September, the investigative committee arrested Russia's deputy commander of the Leningrad military district for allegedly accepting a $203,000 bribe tied to uniform supply contracts. Just days earlier, General Pavel Popov, former deputy defense minister, was arrested on charges of fraud related to the construction of a Kremlin-backed patriotic project.
Investigators revealed Popov owns luxury properties, oh do tell, valued at over $5 million, exposing a lifestyle far beyond his government salary. The investigative committee initiated these arrests following Putin's re-election. and the May appointment, of course, of Andrei Belousov as the new defense minister.
Known for his integrity, but lacking military experience, meaning he has none, Belousov appears tasked with a clear mission, eliminate corruption within the ministry. Now, this crackdown, labeled a, quote, purge by Russian military-focused telegram channels, suggests a potential power shift as Belousov seeks to dismantle corruption within the ranks, or consolidate his own power, or both.
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Chapter 3: What recent developments have occurred in North Korea's missile technology?
Now, whether it's Putin or China's Xi Jinping, anti-corruption drives tend to be the favored vehicle of autocratic leaders when tightening their grip on power and purging those whose loyalty may be in question.
All right, turning to North Korea, leader Kim Jong-un ordered a bold escalation Thursday, authorizing an intercontinental ballistic missile in the ICBM launch, marking its longest ever recorded flight time and within potential striking distance of the US.
The ICBM launch near Pyongyang is North Korea's first since December, remaining airborne for 86 minutes, which is 13 minutes longer than its previous record. This ICBM launch appears to signal Pyongyang's interest in capturing the attention of the U.S. just days before the presidential election. And this is not atypical for Kim Jong-un.
He has a habit of launching a missile anytime he feels ignored or disrespected. This particular launch, this missile traveled about 620 miles before landing in the Sea of Japan, reaching a peak altitude of some 4,350 miles. It's important to note that although fired at a high angle, the missile's potential range suggests that it could reach Anchorage, Alaska.
While Thursday's test posed no immediate threat to the U.S. or its allies, it underscores North Korea's advancing missile capabilities. At the launch, Kim described the missile test as, quote, an appropriate military action against adversaries that he claims pose direct threats to North Korea.
According to North Korea's defense ministry, Kim added that the test was a warning to the regime's rivals, and the test exceeded the characteristics of previous launches. Now, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff identified the weapon as a new solid-fueled ICBM, a potential advancement in Pyongyang's arsenal.
Solid-fueled missiles are quicker to launch and harder to detect than their liquid-fueled counterparts, making them a more formidable threat. South Korean intelligence also reports that the missile was launched from a massive 12-axle vehicle, the largest of its kind in North Korea, fueling speculation that Pyongyang could be developing even larger ICBMs.
Japanese Defense Minister General Nakatani echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the missile's record-breaking flight duration indicates Pyongyang's progress in ICBM technology. However, Analysts note the regime faces technical hurdles, particularly in reentry technology needed for a nuclear strike on the U.S. mainland. The timing of the launch is seen as strategic.
South Korean military spokesman Lee Sung-jun suggested the ICBM test just before the presidential election likely is aimed to bolster North Korea's negotiating leverage. In an urgent response, the foreign ministers of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan held a call issuing a joint statement urging North Korea to halt its, quote, provocative and destabilizing actions. Well, that should do it. The U.S.
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