The President's Daily Brief
April 8th, 2025: How The Economic Turmoil Is Crushing Russia & The EU Offers Zero Tariffs
Tue, 08 Apr 2025
In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Russia’s war chest takes a hit as global oil prices plunge following President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, threatening the Kremlin’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine. The European Union offers to eliminate all industrial tariffs on the United States—a deal Senate Republicans want President Trump to embrace. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Washington for high-stakes talks with President Trump. Here’s what we know. And in today’s Back of the Brief: At least 21 people are dead after deadly storms rip through the Midwest and South, causing widespread flooding and devastation. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Birch Gold: Text PDB to 989898 and get your free info kit on gold Jacked Up Fitness: Go to https://GetJackedUp.com and use code BAKER at checkout to save 10% off your entire purchase Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: Who is hosting The President's Daily Brief on April 8th, 2025?
Es ist Dienstag, der 8. April. Willkommen bei der Präsidenten-Daily Brief. Ich bin Mike Baker. Eure Augen und Ohren auf der Welt-Stage. Okay, lasst uns berichten. Wir fangen heute mit einem Blick auf, wie globales ökonomisches Turmoil den Kriegschuss Russlands schlägt. Die Ölpreise sind stark gestiegen, seit Präsident Trump neue Tarife eröffnet hat.
Enough to threaten the Kremlin's ability to fund its war in Ukraine. I'll explain why this drop in revenue could force Moscow to rethink its military strategy. Later in the show, more world leaders are lining up to make a deal. The European Union is offering to eliminate all industrial tariffs on the US. That's a deal that some Senate Republicans are urging the President to accept.
Plus, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu traveled to Washington to meet with President Trump yesterday. We'll look at the results of that gathering. In today's Back of the Brief, deadly storms continue to sweep through the Midwest and south of the US, causing widespread flooding and killing at least 21 people. I'll have the details. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.
Chapter 2: How is the economic turmoil affecting Russia's war funding?
Gestern haben wir uns angeschaut, wie Präsident Trumps steigende Tarif-Polizien für China schaden könnten. Heute fokussieren wir uns auf ein anderes US-Vorschlag, das wäre Russland, und wie der ökonomische Fallschirm Putin in den Kofferbuch schlägt. Eigentlich denke ich nicht, dass Putin einen Kofferbuch trägt. Er schlägt mich als mehr als ein Mann-Purse-Kind.
Now, the interesting thing here is that Russia wasn't even on Trump's tariff hit list. The White House has stated that sanctions render trade with Russia effectively negligible, making additional tariffs redundant. Other heavily sanctioned nations like Cuba, North Korea and Belarus were also left off of the list. Aber leider für Russland.
Die Märkte kümmern sich nicht wirklich um direkte Zielgruppen. Sie reagieren auf Unwahrheit. Und diese Reaktion hat die Ölpreise nach unten gedreht. Lassen wir uns zuerst die Lage einstellen. Bevor Trump diese neuen Tarife eröffnete, war Brent Crude, der globale Benchmark für Öl, ungefähr 75 Dollar pro Barill. But as soon as the tariffs landed, oil took a nosedive.
Chapter 3: What impact do plunging oil prices have on Russia's economy?
Today, prices are hovering around $64 a barrel. That's a drop of more than $10 in just a few days, and it's the lowest price since 2021. Now, why does that matter to Russia? Well, I'm very glad you asked that question. It matters because Russia's economy is deeply tied to oil. You might recall the famous line from now deceased Senator John McCain, Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country.
The Kremlin counts on oil and natural gas exports for roughly a quarter of their entire federal budget. And right now, Russia's flagship crude, the Ural's oil, is trading at around $50 a barrel. That's significantly below Moscow's expectations. Just to give you an idea of how much lower, Russia's entire 2025 budget was initially built around oil trading at $70 per barrel.
Even last month, when things started looking shaky, the Russian Ministry of Finance scaled back their expectations, predicting prices around $60 a barrel. But now, even those revised projections look optimistic. Und hier ist, warum es so schlecht für Russland ist, besonders jetzt. Der Kremlin braucht Geld, viel davon, um ihre Krieg in der Ukraine zu bewältigen.
Die Militärspende hat sich über 60 Prozent erhöht, allein dieses Jahr. Seit der Invasion in der Ukraine im Februar 2022 hat Russland stark auf Öl-Renten gelegt, um ihre Kriegsmachinen zu halten. At around $80 per barrel, Russia was sitting pretty.
Low production costs, somewhere between $20 and $30 a barrel, meant healthy profits, even with Western sanctions, including a $60 price gap by G7 countries. And of course China has been the main beneficiary, ready, willing and able to purchase Russian oil despite the sanctions. But that uncomfortable margin for Russia is starting to disappear.
If prices drop another $10 or so, say to $40 a barrel, that could erase about $20 billion from Russia's annual revenues. When that happens, well, Russia has few choices. Raid its reserves, hike taxes on already strained Russian companies, or borrow heavily, if they can, from international markets. All tough options in an economy already bruised by war and sanctions.
To be fair, look, Moscow is not going bankrupt tomorrow. They have reserves, but they can't ride out low prices forever. A sustained slump means a significantly reduced war chest. And that could force the Kremlin to make some very tough decisions about its costly war in Ukraine. Bottom line, Russia built its budget and basically its entire war economy, betting on high oil prices.
That bet is starting to look shaky. And now, the economic storm that Russia didn't even see coming could seriously undermine Putin's ambitions in Ukraine. Alright, coming up next. Europe is offering zero tariffs to the Trump administration. That's zero. And Netanyahu just wrapped up a high-stakes meeting at the White House with President Trump. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker hier.
Let's take a look around the economy. What do we see? Oh, well, I'll tell you what we see. Tariff wars. Yep, they're happening. Recession fears and, well, there's that stubborn inflation. It's no wonder that gold has been routinely hitting all-time highs. And in volatile markets, like the one that we've got right now, don't sit on the sidelines with your head in the sand.
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Chapter 4: What are the European Union's zero tariff proposals to the US?
von der Leyen didn't mince words, stating, quote, We've offered zero for zero tariffs for industrial goods, as we have successfully done with many other trading partners. We keep it on the table, end quote. But she made one thing crystal clear. This isn't a plea. If the U.S. shrugs it off, she warned, the EU's ready to hit back if diplomacy fails.
She stated, quote, We're also prepared to respond through countermeasures and defend our interests, end quote. Right now, the EU's average tariff on US non-agricultural goods sits just above 1.5%. But for American cars, a steep 10%. That's more than any other G7 country and it's a legacy of the TTIP collapse that still stings.
As we've been tracking closely here on the PDB, von de Leyen's overture comes as Trump just slapped a fresh wave of 20% tariffs on the EU and several other allies last week, ratcheting US trade barriers to levels not seen in over a century. In Luxemburg, EU trade ministers gathered to map out their next move. The bloc's trade commissioner confirmed what many suspected.
Europe is locked and loaded with, quote, a robust list of retaliatory measures. Von der Leyen doubled down, adding, quote, We stand ready to negotiate, but we won't stay idle, end quote. Now, back in Washington, not everybody is on board with Trump's tariff blitz. Republican Senator Mike Lee took to X with a post stating, quote, Let's take that deal, referring to Von der Leyen's offer.
Fellow Republican Senator Rod Johnson echoed that sentiment, writing, quote, At some point, you have to take yes for an answer. Despite the stateside pleas, Trump appears to be remaining defiant. On Truth Social, the president posted, Be strong, courageous and patient, and greatness will be the result. He spelled greatness in all caps, so that's really great.
By midday, the Dow plunged 750 points, the S&P dropped 1.5%, and the Nasdaq slid more than 1%. Stocks did briefly rally on a false rumor that Trump might delay the tariffs, only to tank again after the White House called the report, quote, fake news. Meanwhile, as we reported yesterday, China is playing hardball.
After Trump's announcement last week, Beijing responded with retaliatory tariffs of its own. And now Trump is threatening to up the ante unless China reverses its latest 34% tariff hike. Otherwise, the U.S. will slap another 50% – are you keeping track of this? – 50% tariff on Chinese imports starting today.
Now, if you're doing the math, and who isn't, that would bring the total tariffs on Chinese goods to a staggering 104%. That includes previous rounds of penalties, like the fentanyl-related tariffs and last week's trade hits. But Beijing, well, for now, isn't backing down. Chinese officials blasted the US strategy as destabilizing and protectionist.
Economists warned that the ripple effects could be brutal, resulting in higher prices for American consumers and a flood of Chinese goods into other markets. White House Advisor Peter Navarro made the Trump administration's position clear. Tariff relief won't come cheap.
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Chapter 5: How are US Senate Republicans reacting to the EU's tariff offer?
Die Krieg in Gaza und eine Bombshell-Revelation von zukünftigen direkten Gesprächen zwischen Trump und Iran über seine nukleare Entwicklung. Das Meeting wurde mit einem gesetzlichen Austausch geöffnet. Netanyahu hat gefeiert, dass Israel mit den USA das Austausch-Defizit auslösen würde, und hat Trump gesagt, dass er es sehr schnell machen würde.
As you might recall, the pledge comes on the heels of sweeping global tariffs that Trump announced last week, with a 17% levy on Israel as part of what he branded Liberation Day. The tariffs are poised to hit Israel's economy hard.
The tariffs, set to take effect Wednesday, will cost Jerusalem an estimated $3 billion annually in exports and threaten roughly 26,000 jobs across sectors like biotechnology, chemicals and electronics. Israel versuchte, den Blut zu verhindern, indem sie unilaterale Tarife auf amerikanische Produkte, v.a. Essen und agrarische Produkte, eliminierten.
Aber Washington versuchte, eine reziprakale Ausgabe zu geben. In der Oval Office hat Netanyahu die Bewegung als eine Bidung für Gerechtigkeit geformt, indem er sagte, dass er ein Freiträger ist und Freiträger muss Gerechtigkeit sein. Ende Quote.
Trump for his part acknowledged that Netanyahu, quote, started off our conversation today with the offer to drop tariffs, but stopped short of matching the gesture. Instead, he made a broader point, stating, quote, we help Israel a lot. That comment, well, wasn't accidental.
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Chapter 6: What is the current state of the US-China trade war and tariffs?
Chapter 7: What are the recent developments in Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to Washington?
Chapter 8: How do recent storms impact the US Midwest and South?
Die Militärspende hat sich über 60 Prozent erhöht, allein dieses Jahr. Seit der Invasion in der Ukraine im Februar 2022 hat Russland stark auf Öl-Renten gelegt, um ihre Kriegsmachinen zu halten. At around $80 per barrel, Russia was sitting pretty.
Low production costs, somewhere between $20 and $30 a barrel, meant healthy profits, even with Western sanctions, including a $60 price gap by G7 countries. And of course China has been the main beneficiary, ready, willing and able to purchase Russian oil despite the sanctions. But that uncomfortable margin for Russia is starting to disappear.
If prices drop another $10 or so, say to $40 a barrel, that could erase about $20 billion from Russia's annual revenues. When that happens, well, Russia has few choices. Raid its reserves, hike taxes on already strained Russian companies, or borrow heavily, if they can, from international markets. All tough options in an economy already bruised by war and sanctions.
To be fair, look, Moscow is not going bankrupt tomorrow. They have reserves, but they can't ride out low prices forever. A sustained slump means a significantly reduced war chest. And that could force the Kremlin to make some very tough decisions about its costly war in Ukraine. Bottom line, Russia built its budget and basically its entire war economy, betting on high oil prices.
That bet is starting to look shaky. And now, the economic storm that Russia didn't even see coming could seriously undermine Putin's ambitions in Ukraine. Alright, coming up next. Europe is offering zero tariffs to the Trump administration. That's zero. And Netanyahu just wrapped up a high-stakes meeting at the White House with President Trump. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker hier.
Let's take a look around the economy. What do we see? Oh, well, I'll tell you what we see. Tariff wars. Yep, they're happening. Recession fears and, well, there's that stubborn inflation. It's no wonder that gold has been routinely hitting all-time highs. And in volatile markets, like the one that we've got right now, don't sit on the sidelines with your head in the sand.
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