The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
Sat, 01 Feb 2025
In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Iranian leaders are reportedly instructing their proxy forces to hold back, fearing they may provoke President Donald Trump. Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies joins us to analyze Tehran’s strategy. President Trump has signed new executive orders calling for a multilayered homeland air defense system, including space-based interceptors. Brandon Weichert, author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, breaks down the technology behind what some are calling "America’s Iron Dome." To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What is Iran's strategy regarding President Trump?
Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We'll start things off today in the Middle East, where Iranian leaders are reportedly telling their proxies to lay low out of fear of antagonizing President Trump.
Bennett Ben-Talibu of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies will give us his insights into Tehran's strategy. Later in the show, President Trump's latest executive orders include a push for a multi-layered homeland air defense system requiring the development of space-based interceptors.
Now, Brandon Weicker, author of Winning Space, How America Remains a Superpower, that's a great book, by the way, and you should pick it up, breaks down the technology behind what's being called America's Iron Dome. But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight.
Iran is reportedly urging its proxy forces, and there are a number of them, to stand down, fearing that provoking Donald Trump could spark a crisis that threatens the regime's survival. It's all about holding onto power for them.
Chapter 2: What are the implications of Iran's proxy forces standing down?
According to an exclusive Telegraph report, Tehran is quietly ordering militias in Iraq and Yemen to halt attacks on US assets, warning them not to use Iranian-made weapons if they do act. Oh. A senior Iranian source put it bluntly, the regime feels an existential threat with Trump's return. Iran's leadership has reason to be worried.
Trump's first term saw the maximum pressure campaign, crippling sanctions, and the targeted killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani. Now, with their proxy war against Israel in shambles, and Bashar al-Assad, of course, ousted in Syria, Iran's regional power has been severely weakened. So, you ask yourself, what does this restraint signal for the Middle East?
Well, joining us to break it down is Bena Ben-Taliblu, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Bena, thanks very much for joining us here on The Situation Report. Always great to be with you. Happy New Year to you and the listeners. And to you as well. I hope your 2025 is off to a good start. I guess let's go from the 30,000-foot view.
What do you make of this report that the Iranian regime is essentially telling their proxies to sit on ice, don't attack, don't provoke, lay low?
Chapter 3: How has Iran's regional power changed since Trump's first term?
What do you make of that? Well, it's consistent. It's consistent with patterns of Iranian national security behavior in the past. It's consistent with a theory I have as to how Iran's Supreme Leader and Commander-in-Chief is trying to set the chessboard for the short-term future. And that is there's a Trump trap being set right now in Tehran.
The Islamic Republic is looking to not just take advantage of President Trump's instinct and desire for a deal, but to really use negotiation as a shield against increasing Israeli military action, both against it as well as its proxies in the region.
It's also looking to buy time to prevent transatlantic coordination between Europe and America on a whole host of issues like counter missile, counter drone, counter human rights, a whole host of things that Europe and America have been increasingly good on together in the multilateral space. It's also to that end trying to use negotiations to prevent a major diplomatic pressure at the UN.
There's this thing called SNAP Act, where there's the restoration of UN sanctions. The last opportunity to have this happen is October 18, 2025. So it's trying very hard to put on a nice face and avoid that deadline as well. And then naturally on the economic front, the regime is bankrupt. The regime is broke. It's afraid of a return of max pressure 2.0, and it's trying to
sweeten the equation for the presidents by trying to turn off the fire. And indeed, if you look at Iran-backed militias in a place like Iraq, for example, they have not struck U.S. positions in Iraq or Syria really since the election period or shortly thereafter.
And this, too, I think is a signal, but one I think that the new administration should see as a signal of weakness rather than a signal of goodwill and good faith.
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Chapter 4: What does the term 'Trump trap' refer to?
Yeah, I was going to ask you that. I mean, because you could kind of look at this from both sides. You could say, okay, well, what you're implying is that the Iranian regime is significantly weakened and they're looking just to maintain a hold on power to survive. And so they're doing what they need to in order to try to save themselves. Or...
It almost seems also that you're implying that it's a very strategic plan on their part, very thought-out plan, and that they're basically just buying time with the idea that, I would imagine, that they're looking to rebuild their proxies and claw back some of the problems that they've experienced.
I think that's exactly right. What you just laid out is a combination of tactical and strategical, what this regime is doing in the short term and the logic with which it's doing it and the eye to which it's doing it for the long term.
I mean, just look at what the regime was doing in late December and early January before President-elect Trump became President Trump, so basically before inauguration.
There was a surge in attempts to sell Iranian oil, including Iranian oil that was held in storage in borders and in ports in places like China, for example, so that they could get more revenue, so that they could, again, brace themselves for maximum pressure.
And then, of course, there is not my word, but the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency was talking about the regime hitting the gas pedal, I think was the phrase in terms of uranium enrichments and the speed at which it was enriching to 60% purity. And just for the audience to know, uranium is the fissile material you need for a nuclear weapon.
But a country that can enrich to 60% is basically 90 plus percent of the way and 90% purity. And 90% purity is pure weapons grade uranium. That's like the perfect material that you would need for that core of a nuclear weapon. And because enrichment with uranium is logarithmic, it's not linear, if you go 60%- Yeah, that 60 to 90 is, again, not to oversimplify, is sort of the easier lift.
It's getting to the 60% that takes the time, the effort, the work. Give us your perspective, if you could. I mean, how weak are they? We talk about, okay, obviously, that Hamas, Hezbollah, even the Houthis at this point have been degraded by Israeli actions for the most part. But looking at the Iranian regime, how weak are they?
Well, there's a couple different measures. There's the fact that this regime has had energy crises, currency crises, even on the backdrop of the outgoing Biden administration's lax sanctions enforcement. So certainly, there is the political effects of the loss of its sole state ally in the Middle East, the Assad regime in Syria. There's the gutting of two of the major proxies the regime has
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Chapter 5: How is President Trump expected to respond to Iranian negotiations?
It could be triggered by a social issue, as it was with the violent hijab enforcement against Massa Amini in September 2022. It could be triggered
uh again by labor issues as we saw in 2018 across iran there are a whole host of triggers uh for this uh kind of situation so what the us needs to do before that situation manifests to develop this protest policy playbook and perhaps working with israelis or europeans or people who have talked about supporting the iranian people and seeing where in terms of foreign governments you can get your money where your mouth is to actually make sure the iranian people have what they need in terms of tech
for VPNs to be able to access the internet. Perhaps Starlink, Elon Musk, now that he's in the administration, could help get satellite internet into the hands of the Iranians when there's a national internet blackout.
Perhaps in terms of a cyber campaign, there can be a coordinated cyber campaign to go after regime command and control every time they're going after certain segments of Iranian society. There's a whole host of creative options here to turn that principled support into practical support. So I'm not at all skeptical about the next time that the Iranian population will come out.
That's the history of that country, not just against this regime for the past 45 years, unfortunately, soon to be 46 years, but also for the past 100 plus years of the social and political movements in that country. You know, it's a lot. For over 100 years, this was a country that's gotten smaller, not bigger. It has a tradition of trying to seek representative government.
And all the analogies that we hear about today of Iraq or Afghanistan or Libya, where there is militarized regime change, they're all like square peg round hole. Because fundamentally, this is not about trying to get a foreign government to do a military style takeover. This is trying to get the original government in that country out of the people's way. It's a fundamentally different thing.
Well, okay. So, you're not skeptical about the population at some point saying enough is enough. Are you optimistic that when that happens, the US or other relevant members of the global community will do anything about it in terms of support?
That right now is a hot, fun debate and is very much TBD with the Trump administration 2.0 because Trump administration 1.0 had actually made history in this regard. The president, you know, he shattered the conventional wisdom or whatever the phrase is. He slaughtered the sacred cows that used to exist both on the left and on the right in Washington, D.C.
about when the Iranian people go out, can you at least rhetorically, vociferously support them? Because if you remember with Obama and the Green Movement, The whole thing was, would foreign support, Western support in particular, even American support be seen as a kiss of death? Donald Trump slaughtered that sacred cow and showed that there was little to no cost to actually being able to do that.
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Chapter 6: What are the potential consequences of sanctions relief for Iran?
We are more deterred by the weaker power than the stronger power being able to deter that weaker power. That's the fundamental issue here. There is an imbalance, at least in terms of political intention and will and resolve here. And that's something the Islamic Republic is hoping to capitalize on despite the real capability and material difference between Iran and America.
So I would advise the president, take advantage of the massive chasm between state and society in Iran and take advantage of the massive differential between Israel and Iran and America And use that to your advantage at the negotiating table.
If you can get a disarmament agreement that doesn't pay this regime, that says you get to breathe tomorrow, and then we'll talk about what comes the day after tomorrow, then great. But I think it's highly unlikely like that.
I think the trap the regime is setting up is to get the president to go away from disarmament and back into managing, back into arms control, back into kicking the can down the road, back into having to actually have American values and interests at odds with each other over Iran policy rather than be complementary with each other.
and to take a fadingly flawed framework like Obama's 2015 nuclear deal and just change some T's, cross some T's, dot some I's, turn a few periods into commas, change something that says 10 years into 15 years and say you have an entirely new agreement when the president campaigned in term one rightly against the flaws of that agreement.
Yeah, I think if they were to go to the table, here's what I would love to see. I don't think it's going to happen. But if the team handling this for the White House would say, fine, we'll sit at the table and talk to you. But here's the situation. We're not talking about sanctions relief yet. We're talking about, as an example, full transparency on your nuclear program.
We will tell you what facilities we want to inspect, and this is how we're going to inspect them, and this is what we're going to do. That's an arms deal because, again, the previous one, John Kerry used to say, well, it's all based on verification. Well, yeah, verification of the sites that they allowed you to look at.
So, if they would go in and be hard-nosed about it and say, here it is, otherwise, fine. We don't care. We're going to walk away and here's what we're going to do for you. We are doing the maximum pressure campaign. We are going to stop any revenue streams we identify going into your regime and the IRGC, which got its finger in every part of the economy.
But again, I think I'm kind of bloviating on hopes and dreams rather than what I believe they'll actually do. I think the desire in Washington, D.C. for status quo, right? Nothing happening on my watch is a good thing. I'm worried that that is going to kind of drive the day here.
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Chapter 7: How can the US support the Iranian people effectively?
Well, look, that's been the history of our dealings with this regime, is anytime they throw a Western-looking, talking, sounding, you know, spokesperson or diplomat or official from the regime, it's like Pavlov's dogs. The U.S., whoever's in charge, just, they salivate, and they think, oh, my God, look, finally, we've got an opportunity for reform and, you know, moderation. It's just...
You know, we never seem to really learn. Look, if it's not Witkoff, frankly, Ben, I hope they give you a call. Listen, I'd be happy to take the call from anyone. This is all free advice. Anyway, Ben, I'm Ben Talib. Listen, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. It's always a pleasure talking with you. And I hope when we call, you'll pick up the phone again and come on back.
All right. Well, there's a lot going on there. Moving on, President Trump is pushing for an Iron Dome missile defense system for the United States. Have you heard about this? But his plan doesn't stop there. Coming up next, we'll be joined by Senior National Security Editor at the National Interest, Brandon Weikert. Right. Discuss.
He'll be here to talk about why Trump is reviving a long debated idea. And that would be space based missile defense. Remember Star Wars from the Reagan era? You don't. Oh, come on. Stay with us. Welcome back to the Situation Report.
President Trump is doubling down on national defense, and his latest executive order lays out an ambitious plan, the creation of an Iron Dome system for the United States. Now, modeled after Israel's successful missile shield, the goal is to build a multi-layered defense network capable of intercepting incoming threats before they reach U.S. soil. That seems like a sound plan.
But this plan goes beyond ground-based interceptors. Embedded in Trump's strategy is a push for space-based missile defense, and that's a concept once championed by Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative, otherwise known as Star Wars.
Some military analysts question the feasibility, arguing that an Iron Dome-style system, well, it makes sense for a small country like Israel, but may not be practical for the U.S., given its vast geography. But Trapp and his team see it as a necessity in an era of hypersonic threats and advanced missile technology. Our next guest calls this technology the holy grail of American national defense.
Brandon Weikert, author of Winning Space, How America Remains a Superpower. And if you haven't read that, and then you don't know what you've been doing with yourselves, go out and get it. And also a good friend of the show joins us now. Brandon, thanks very much for being with us on the Situation Report.
It's great to be back. Thanks for having me.
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Chapter 8: What challenges does the new administration face with Iran?
Of course, Fukuyama himself has since walked that back. But in fact, our enemies did not think it was the end of history. Certainly the Russians didn't. I mean, what a horrible way to end history for them if that was the case. The Russians and the Chinese looked at it as an opportunity, especially when they realized that the Americans were going to seek to dominate the global commons.
They wanted to create alternatives to that.
Let's kind of go back to where we started with the Iron Dome system. Is there a place for something akin to an Iron Dome system in the U.S.? I mean, again, I know you talked about, look, it may be some sort of attack from a cartel, a rogue group on the border or somewhere. Fine.
But is there a, pragmatically speaking, do you get the sense that they actually are going to create an Iron Dome system or are we just going and leapfrogging straight to a space-based system?
Well, basically, the way I see it, and I might be wrong about this, but the way that I see it is we need a layered national air defense system. So you want the long range, be able to deal with it at the long range in space. Then you want to have it at sort of the medium range and the high atmosphere.
And if all else fails, because this is obviously we're talking about shooting down missiles and hypersonic weapons, it's not going to be a foolproof system. If all else fails, you want to have that shorter-term capability sort of as a last-ditch effort to stop the incoming weapon system before it destroys its target.
What does a space-based system look like? I mean, for those of us, and I know, again, Most of the, I don't know if you know this, but most of the Situation Report listeners are rocket scientists. I think nine out of 10. But for someone like me, explain it in simple terms with small words. What does that entail?
Well, Trump in the executive order called it space-based interceptors. To me, it sounds like they are planning to use basically projectiles launched from, say, a satellite. They would track an incoming missile or rocket coming in, and then they would have the satellite ready. They would probably pair it with artificial intelligence algorithms for accuracy.
And then they would pop off a series of projectiles to basically destroy the warhead in orbit. Because remember, they have to pass through the atmosphere, through space, on their way down to target. That's how they get to us so quickly. Now, Reagan back in his day was talking about lasers.
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