Behnam Ben Taleblu
Appearances
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
Sure, so just empirically looking at not just the pattern of protest against the Islamic Republic, which when you contrast 1999 and 2009, and that 2009 with the Green Movement, versus 2017 to present where the pattern of protest has been much more geographically and demographically diverse.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
The slogans have been against the regime in its entirety rather than a certain segment or certain liberal class or certain factual group in this regime. All of this stuff points to the population is fed up and it will be a question of when, not if, the next major crisis where the street comes out against the state. And that could be triggered by an economic issue, as it was in 2019.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
It could be triggered by a social issue, as it was with the violent hijab enforcement against Massa Amini in September 2022. It could be triggered
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
uh again by labor issues as we saw in 2018 across iran there are a whole host of triggers uh for this uh kind of situation so what the us needs to do before that situation manifests to develop this protest policy playbook and perhaps working with israelis or europeans or people who have talked about supporting the iranian people and seeing where in terms of foreign governments you can get your money where your mouth is to actually make sure the iranian people have what they need in terms of tech
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
for VPNs to be able to access the internet. Perhaps Starlink, Elon Musk, now that he's in the administration, could help get satellite internet into the hands of the Iranians when there's a national internet blackout.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
Perhaps in terms of a cyber campaign, there can be a coordinated cyber campaign to go after regime command and control every time they're going after certain segments of Iranian society. There's a whole host of creative options here to turn that principled support into practical support. So I'm not at all skeptical about the next time that the Iranian population will come out.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
That's the history of that country, not just against this regime for the past 45 years, unfortunately, soon to be 46 years, but also for the past 100 plus years of the social and political movements in that country. You know, it's a lot. For over 100 years, this was a country that's gotten smaller, not bigger. It has a tradition of trying to seek representative government.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
And all the analogies that we hear about today of Iraq or Afghanistan or Libya, where there is militarized regime change, they're all like square peg round hole. Because fundamentally, this is not about trying to get a foreign government to do a military style takeover. This is trying to get the original government in that country out of the people's way. It's a fundamentally different thing.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
That right now is a hot, fun debate and is very much TBD with the Trump administration 2.0 because Trump administration 1.0 had actually made history in this regard. The president, you know, he shattered the conventional wisdom or whatever the phrase is. He slaughtered the sacred cows that used to exist both on the left and on the right in Washington, D.C.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
about when the Iranian people go out, can you at least rhetorically, vociferously support them? Because if you remember with Obama and the Green Movement, The whole thing was, would foreign support, Western support in particular, even American support be seen as a kiss of death? Donald Trump slaughtered that sacred cow and showed that there was little to no cost to actually being able to do that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
So now the question is, as he's back in the administration again, Trump 2.0, Will he be able to do this when the rubber hits the road and when people are out there in the streets?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
One of the short-term challenges to that is, given all the domestic and regional and foreign policy and security and economic crisis the regime has, President Trump's consistency, both during the campaign period as well as the few days and the week or so he's been in office, is that he's more narrowly scoped the Iran problem to just nuclear.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
And even within the prism of just nuclear, he's been fairly consistent about wanting a deal. And that doesn't necessarily add wind beneath the wings of Iranian protesters who will see every dollar given to this regime as a dollar that would enrich this repressive apparatus and buy time for a regime which has no legitimacy.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
So, it really will be a catch-22 for the Trump administration how to square this circle.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
No, you framed that brilliantly and let me take this and move it into the hard-nosed world of realism and even see it as the way the new administration might want to see it, which is through the America first lens or how to put America first when it comes to your moral imperatives and your strategic imperatives.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
Let's pretend you are content with taking the can down the road because sometimes in statecraft, it's really about managing rather than solving. But we've gotten to a point where we've so consistently managed left and right and so poorly managed left and right that that problem set is actually now managing us.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
We are more deterred by the weaker power than the stronger power being able to deter that weaker power. That's the fundamental issue here. There is an imbalance, at least in terms of political intention and will and resolve here. And that's something the Islamic Republic is hoping to capitalize on despite the real capability and material difference between Iran and America.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
So I would advise the president, take advantage of the massive chasm between state and society in Iran and take advantage of the massive differential between Israel and Iran and America And use that to your advantage at the negotiating table.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
If you can get a disarmament agreement that doesn't pay this regime, that says you get to breathe tomorrow, and then we'll talk about what comes the day after tomorrow, then great. But I think it's highly unlikely like that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
I think the trap the regime is setting up is to get the president to go away from disarmament and back into managing, back into arms control, back into kicking the can down the road, back into having to actually have American values and interests at odds with each other over Iran policy rather than be complementary with each other.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
and to take a fadingly flawed framework like Obama's 2015 nuclear deal and just change some T's, cross some T's, dot some I's, turn a few periods into commas, change something that says 10 years into 15 years and say you have an entirely new agreement when the president campaigned in term one rightly against the flaws of that agreement.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
What do you make of that? Well, it's consistent. It's consistent with patterns of Iranian national security behavior in the past. It's consistent with a theory I have as to how Iran's Supreme Leader and Commander-in-Chief is trying to set the chessboard for the short-term future. And that is there's a Trump trap being set right now in Tehran.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
No need to apologize, sir. You're being smart because naturally, no president wants something to go boom on their watch. Naturally, no president wants to get stuck at another endless conflict in their region where unfortunately, in recent memory, there has been endless conflict with no political victory. let alone clear economic thing we can extract or military prize at the end of that tunnel.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
Naturally, this president campaigned against that and doesn't want to fall into that. But then here's where I say we have to take those very realistic fears, that very least common denominator approach and globalize it.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
Because if we're going to be that unsuccessful in terms of will and capability against a power that is this much weaker, woe unto us for being able to push back against Putin and Xi. Woe unto us for being able to defend the entirety of the Western hemisphere and have this be the American hemisphere.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
There is no straight line from losing to the Islamic Republic of Iran and being able to win against the People's Republic of China, especially when it comes to other things like how the Chinese are going to be assessing our resolve on the Persian Gulf.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
So what I would like to see and I haven't seen thus far is a steady pace of sanctions coming out that show that the sanctions that the president helped to craft are going to be vigorously enforced and scaled up over time. Thus far, there's been a whole host of comments about seeking a diplomatic agreement.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
The Islamic Republic is looking to not just take advantage of President Trump's instinct and desire for a deal, but to really use negotiation as a shield against increasing Israeli military action, both against it as well as its proxies in the region.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
Now, I would caution the administration from saying this too often or too frequently, because again, that would destroy the strong power differential that exists between America and Iran. Again, allow the weaker power to take advantage of the stronger power when they get to the negotiating table. So, nothing's been said at that timeline. In fact, at the
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
At the time of this recording, we don't even know who is technically going to even be the Iran envoy, you know, the point person. In term one, this was Brian Hook. In term two, he was let go from the team right before inauguration. There were rumors that it would be Steve Witkoff. Those rumors were later You know, found their way into mainstream press based on sources and exclusives.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
And then later, President Trump actually came out and kiboshed that source saying that, no, there still is no Iran envoy or that, if I'm not mistaken, he said that Witkoff will not be handling that file. So there is more questions than answers here. But certainly, I think the Islamic Republic is looking to sweep the deal. They're talking publicly.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
You had the former foreign minister, one of the now vice presidents of Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif, at Davos trying to lure in the president. You had the foreign minister speak to Sky News. You had the president speak to NBC News, where he literally walked back a threat that the DOJ and the FBI said was on the table.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
The DOJ and FBI last year said the Islamic Republic had a plot to kill President Trump. And then we had the smiling face of the regime, the new president, tell NBC that there was no such thing.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
It's also looking to buy time to prevent transatlantic coordination between Europe and America on a whole host of issues like counter missile, counter drone, counter human rights, a whole host of things that Europe and America have been increasingly good on together in the multilateral space. It's also to that end trying to use negotiations to prevent a major diplomatic pressure at the UN.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
There's this thing called SNAP Act, where there's the restoration of UN sanctions. The last opportunity to have this happen is October 18, 2025. So it's trying very hard to put on a nice face and avoid that deadline as well. And then naturally on the economic front, the regime is bankrupt. The regime is broke. It's afraid of a return of max pressure 2.0, and it's trying to
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
sweeten the equation for the presidents by trying to turn off the fire. And indeed, if you look at Iran-backed militias in a place like Iraq, for example, they have not struck U.S. positions in Iraq or Syria really since the election period or shortly thereafter.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
And this, too, I think is a signal, but one I think that the new administration should see as a signal of weakness rather than a signal of goodwill and good faith.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
I think that's exactly right. What you just laid out is a combination of tactical and strategical, what this regime is doing in the short term and the logic with which it's doing it and the eye to which it's doing it for the long term.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
I mean, just look at what the regime was doing in late December and early January before President-elect Trump became President Trump, so basically before inauguration.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
There was a surge in attempts to sell Iranian oil, including Iranian oil that was held in storage in borders and in ports in places like China, for example, so that they could get more revenue, so that they could, again, brace themselves for maximum pressure.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
And then, of course, there is not my word, but the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency was talking about the regime hitting the gas pedal, I think was the phrase in terms of uranium enrichments and the speed at which it was enriching to 60% purity. And just for the audience to know, uranium is the fissile material you need for a nuclear weapon.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
But a country that can enrich to 60% is basically 90 plus percent of the way and 90% purity. And 90% purity is pure weapons grade uranium. That's like the perfect material that you would need for that core of a nuclear weapon. And because enrichment with uranium is logarithmic, it's not linear, if you go 60%- Yeah, that 60 to 90 is, again, not to oversimplify, is sort of the easier lift.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
Well, there's a couple different measures. There's the fact that this regime has had energy crises, currency crises, even on the backdrop of the outgoing Biden administration's lax sanctions enforcement. So certainly, there is the political effects of the loss of its sole state ally in the Middle East, the Assad regime in Syria. There's the gutting of two of the major proxies the regime has
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
armed, trained, and equipped to Israel's north and south. That's Hezbollah in Lebanon, and that's Hamas in Gaza that the Israelis have militarily beaten back. There's basically the long-range air defenses that the Iranians had received from the Russians. That's the S-300 that the Israelis had significantly damaged or destroyed in their October response to Iran's October ballistic missile barrage.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
And by the way, that is the largest single-day ballistic missile barrage in history. And even though the Iranians landed some
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
30 to 32 to 35 missiles depending on how you count that was largely believed to be a successful interception by the israelis in the interconnected system of the mayor and missile defense in the middle east that the us has worked to support but again you don't have to take my word for it just take a look at the persian press in the past week week and a half and it's all been a case of the lady doll protest too much you have major islamic revolutionary guard corps officials feeling the need
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
to come out and say, we are not weak. You know, that traditionally tends to happen when you actually are weak. You have hardline media organizations in the Islamic Republic that have been championing the axis of resistance war against Israel over the past year, year and a half, since the war broke out on October 7, 2023, when we saw Hamas' attack against Israel.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
And they are running headlines like, the war which we want, which empirically and objectively you cannot say for the Islamic Republic went their way. So because of all of this, the Islamic Republic is looking to use the prospect of negotiations to prevent an attack, to rebuild that home, to stabilize that home.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
And then tomorrow, make sure it's in the position to export that ideology and export those arms, weapons, and money again abroad. Okay.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
Well, I think there are certainly different ways to counter it. One is to take your cues from the street inside Iran rather than the narrative the state is trying to sell you. And the cues from the street is simply that this regime is weak. It has no legitimacy. They even tried to have, just a few weeks ago, maybe your paramilitary parade.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
I made a whole series of military parades that they had in the paramilitary countries called the Besiege. And these are supposed to be an old volunteer force, the most loyal of the loyal. And a lot of these guys didn't even show up, which was a major loss of face because this is one of the most hardline security forces that is used by the state against the street.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
consistently in these multiple rounds of protests. We should be taking our cues from what is going on in the street in that country and actually developing an organic playbook to support the people the next time they come out into the street. That needs to be the long-term orienting vision that the arsonist behind the many fires in the Middle East is the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
It's taking advantage of America's adriftness in the Middle East, particularly post-Afghanistan withdrawal, but particularly beginning with the wars in the Middle East after 9-11 and particularly after the Arab Spring and particularly after the power vacuum that they left.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
So really being able to align your head with your heart, having a policy that has maximum pressure against the regime and maximum support with the people. That's big picture number one. But in response to if the Iranians come and say, hey, let's talk, then the president deserves to have an idea of what an actual good deal looks like.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
And I'll tell you one thing, I'm not sure the Islamic Republic can actually give a good deal at this point in time. A, because the people who set the fires in the Middle East and lost the wars that they started, like Hamas, like Hezbollah, like the Islamic Republic of Iran, do not get to dictate the terms. to the victors, which is the Israelis and the Americans.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
So the president needs to be wary that the loser is trying to dictate terms to him. He has the power. And the debate that you hear by the former proponents of the JCPOA, that was 2015 Obama era nuclear deal, who also in this town, Washington, where I work and live, are quite keen to take advantage of President Trump's deal-making instincts.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
They are keen to say, oh, you can kick the can down the road, modify some of the things in Obama's agreement and it becomes your agreement and you'll get, I don't know, a Nobel Prize for this or something. This is very dangerous thinking because it risks enshrining the loser, the Islamic Republic, over the current victor, America and Israel.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
And that simply is not a good political prospect, let alone a policy prospect for a president, particularly a president like Donald Trump. So the only acceptable kind of nuclear only framework that I could offer here is not an arms control deal. So if you're going to talk to them, it's not about arms control. It's not like the IDF, Reagan and Gorbachev. It's not like the JCPOA, Obama and Rouhani.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
The model here If you want to test the seriousness of this regime is a disarmament kind of deal. Like Taiwan way back in the day, and more importantly, South Africa way back in the day, you have to give up the WMD program and associated infrastructure altogether. And the debate that is being had in this town is, oh, well, what kind of sanctions relief package can the president give?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
The debate among the Europeans is how can we get Iran to trust America? That all misses the forest to the trees. Because of the regime's weakness, what you get to tell them is the thing that you get is to have oxygen to walk. It's not about your correspondent banking accounts and cash in your pocket.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 1st, 2025: Is Iran Setting A ‘Trump Trap’? & America’s Own ‘Iron Dome’ System
We simply will not curb stomp you tomorrow and we can't guarantee that we won't curb stomp you a week from now or a month from now, but we will not take advantage of your weakness in this precise moment. Again, because they are the loser. They are the arsonist of the multiple buyers and they don't get to come and now be the firemen.