The President's Daily Brief
PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 27th, 2024: Undersea Cable Sabotage & South Korea's Leadership Crisis Deepens
Sat, 28 Dec 2024
In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin: We’ll begin today with a potential act of sabotage by Moscow, as Finland seizes a Russian oil tanker suspected of severing undersea power and data cables on Christmas Day. Then, South Korea’s government descends further into chaos, as their parliament impeaches the current acting president, just two weeks after suspending President Yoon Suk Yeol’s powers over his highly controversial martial law declaration. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What act of sabotage occurred involving undersea cables?
We'll begin today with a potential act of sabotage by Moscow as Finland seizes a Russian oil tanker suspected of severing undersea power and data cables on Christmas Day.
Then South Korea's government descends further into chaos as their parliament impeaches the current acting president just two weeks after suspending President Yun Suk-yeol's powers over his controversial and bizarre martial law declaration. But first, our afternoon spotlight.
We'll begin in the Baltic Sea, where it appears that the Kremlin may be intensifying their shadow war against Kyiv's NATO allies. Finland seized a tanker carrying Russian oil in the Baltic Sea on Thursday on suspicion that it had severed an undersea power cable and several internet cable lines on Christmas Day. Finnish authorities said the vessel may be part of Russia's infamous shadow fleet.
That's what they're calling it, the shadow fleet of aging tankers used to skirt Western sanctions on the sale of Russian oil. That's according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. Three of the cables in question connected Finland and Estonia, while another connected Finland with Germany.
Now, Finnish officials stressed that the country's energy and telecommunication services remained stable despite the damage as they were able to fall back on reserve cables to avoid data and power disruptions. Still, they warned that the damage could take months to repair and worsening weather conditions could potentially prolong their work and put the country's power supply in jeopardy.
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Chapter 2: How is Finland responding to the suspected sabotage?
Authorities said the Russian vessel slowed down as it passed over the cables on Wednesday with its anchor dragging on the seabed, roughly around the same time that the cables ceased functioning. Now, that could be what some would refer to as a clue. They added that the tanker briefly lingered over the site before continuing on its journey. Possibly another clue.
Shortly after midnight on Thursday, Finnish special forces raided the vessel and have since been interrogating its crew on suspicion of, quote, aggravated criminal mischief. Is that what we call severing important undersea cables? Mischief.
Finland's prime minister said it was too early to say whether the Russian government played a role in the incident, but Finland's NATO allies aren't taking any chances By Friday, NATO leadership announced the alliance would boost its military presence in the Baltic Sea, while Estonia launched their own naval operation to guard nearby electricity cables
Estonia's foreign minister warned, "...if there is a threat to the critical undersea infrastructure in our region, there will also be a response." He added that the alliance must do more to crack down on Russia's shadow fleet, saying, "...in addition to circumventing sanctions, the shadow fleet is a security threat in the Baltic Sea, and we cannot just sit and watch."
Sweden and Lithuania also reacted swiftly, deploying aircraft and vessels from their respective navies to monitor ship traffic in the region. It's just the latest anchor-dragging incident involving damage to critical underwater communications infrastructure in the Baltic, which many in the alliance suspect is part of the Kremlin's hybrid war against NATO and the EU.
Officials with the Finnish Navy speculated that their adversaries are testing whether cheap civilian ships can be employed to successfully disrupt communication lines within the NATO alliance, and it would certainly appear that their testing is proving that it can.
As a reminder, these marine fiber optic cables are a critical piece of global communications infrastructure that provide vital internet and telecoms connectivity. One of the cables damaged on Wednesday had just been repaired after being cut in an incident involving a Chinese cargo ship, everybody's getting involved in the action, last month that sailed from a Russian port.
That incident saw two critical internet cables in the Baltic Sea damaged in quick succession. And while an investigation by Swedish authorities is ongoing, direct evidence pinning the activity on Russia has proved elusive.
But Estonia's foreign minister noted Thursday that damage to undersea infrastructure has become so frequent that it's difficult to believe that it's all just one big coincidence. While the incidents to date have been small in scale, the potential risks of such sabotage, well, can't be overstated.
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of the attacks on undersea infrastructure?
Typically, a two-thirds majority is needed to impeach a president, but impeaching a prime minister only requires a simple majority. Despite his role as acting president, Opposition members who hold a majority in South Korea's National Assembly determined that due to Han's dual role as prime minister, the two-thirds requirement could be waived.
Han, who said he'll respect the outcome of the vote, will be stripped of the powers and duties of the president pending a ruling from the Constitutional Court on whether he can be reinstated. The court has their work cut out for them as they're already set to review whether to uphold Yoon's December 14th impeachment.
The nine-member court has six months to make a ruling on the impeachments, but matters have been complicated by three vacancies left by recently retired justices. In fact, these vacancies are at the heart of the latest impeachment vote. The opposition targeted Hahn due to his reluctance to immediately appoint three justices to the court.
It's an action Han said was outside his mandate as acting president. But the opposition, well, they said this was a stalling tactic meant to protect his predecessor, as it's not clear if the court can make a ruling on Yoon's impeachment without a full bench. It's hard to figure out which impeachment they're talking about.
As the country sinks further into turmoil, the presidency will pass to the country's finance minister. That fellow's name is Choi Sang-mok. Now, Choi attempted to strike a conciliatory tone on Friday, pledging, quote, an all-out effort to overcome the crisis.
He also said that he'd already instructed the military to boost its readiness to deter North Korea from trying to take advantage of the current political chaos. But South Korea's allies are growing increasingly concerned. An unnamed U.S.
official told Reuters on Friday that the White House was closely monitoring the situation while that's good, while keeping an eye on the activities of North Korea and China. Look at them, they're multitasking. The U.S. already had to postpone a planned tabletop exercise with the South Korean military after impeached President Yun's surprise martial law declaration back on the 3rd of December.
That said, the US source told Reuters that so far, the political upheaval has not impacted the military readiness of the roughly 28,500 US troops stationed in the country. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Friday, 27 December. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com.
And remember to check out our latest episode of the PDB Situation Report. That launches this evening at 10 p.m. on The First TV and, of course, can also be found on our YouTube channel. You can find that at President's Daily Brief and all wherever you get your podcast stuff. This week's most excellent guests include retired General Ben Hodges, former commanding officer of the U.S.
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Chapter 4: What political crisis is unfolding in South Korea?
Army Europe, as well as the producer of an important and revealing documentary on the U.S. fentanyl crisis. That's called Fentanyl, Death Incorporated, and that documentary was produced by our guest, Dr. Robert Marbitt.
We cover a lot of ground in this weekend's episode of the Situation Report, from the Biden administration's push to get more weapons to Ukraine ahead of Trump's return to office, to the downing of the Azerbaijan commercial aircraft by Russian air defense systems, to the fentanyl crisis, including China's involvement in fueling the tragedy and the role of the Mexican cartels. Tune in.
I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back over the weekend with the PDB Situation Report. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.