The President's Daily Brief
December 12th, 2024: Putin’s Humiliation in Syria & Biden’s Historic Migration Surge
Thu, 12 Dec 2024
In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: We'll begin with a look at the fate of Russia's military bases in Syria. With Bashar al-Assad's regime toppled, questions are swirling around the future of the Kremlin's foothold in the Middle East, including critical naval and air bases. A new report from The New York Times reveals that under President Biden, the United States has experienced the largest net migration in its history—averaging 2.4 million people per year during his administration. Plus, the latest on massive Chinese military drills around Taiwan, with satellite images capturing a tense standoff between Chinese and Taiwanese vessels. And in today's Back of the Brief: The massive wildfire sweeping through Malibu, destroying homes and forcing widespread evacuations. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What is the fate of Russia's military bases in Syria?
Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We'll begin today's show with a look at the fate of Russia's military bases in Syria. They've got them.
With Bashar al-Assad's regime toppled, there are obvious questions about the future of the Kremlin's foothold in the Middle East, including their critical naval and air bases.
Later in the show, a new report from The New York Times reveals that under President Biden, the United States has experienced the largest net migration in its history, averaging 2.4 million people per year during his administration.
Plus, we'll bring you the latest on Chinese regime military drills around Taiwan, including satellite images capturing a tense standoff between Chinese and Taiwanese vessels. Ah, because with everything else going on in the world, what we really needed was more tension and potential conflict.
And in today's Back of the Brief, we'll take a look at the wildfire sweeping through Malibu, California, destroying homes and forcing widespread evacuations. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. As we've discussed here on the PDB, the situation in Syria has become a significant humiliation for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Beyond the loss of hundreds of Russian lives during the Syrian civil war, it also represents tens of billions of dollars in sunk costs. Adding to this loss of face internationally, the Kremlin must now deal with a pressing practical issue, what to do about its military assets currently stationed in Syrian territory.
As of Wednesday, four days since the fall of Putin's ally Assad, now living in Moscow under Putin's protection, Russian forces remained stranded at their Syrian bases, despite rumors that they were engaged in a hasty retreat.
Analysts say such an evacuation would be easy to spot, and that Russia would be loath to give up their military foothold in Syria, which serves as their most strategically important outpost in the Middle East. Russia has two military bases in Syria along the country's Mediterranean coast, a massive naval base in Tardis and an air base in the port city of Latakia.
The base at Tardis is of particular importance, providing Russia with their only access point to the Mediterranean Sea. It's been used to conduct naval exercises, station warships, and at times host nuclear submarines, according to a report from Business Insider.
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Chapter 2: How has the U.S. migration surge changed under Biden?
The White House also carried out what is essentially a mass amnesty program, quietly dismissing asylum cases and deportation orders for years, claiming the migrants did not have criminal records and posed no national security threat.
Chapter 3: What are the implications of Chinese military drills around Taiwan?
Chapter 4: What is the situation with the Malibu wildfire?
Now, due to where they are geographically situated, the bases also function as the main transit hub for military assets into African countries, where Russia has been working in recent years to undermine Western influence.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said that if the bases fall, it will "...likely disrupt Russian logistics, resupply efforts at Africa core rotations, particularly weakening Russia's operations and power projection in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa."
But with the Syrian Islamist rebels in full control of the Latakia province, where both bases are situated, officials in Moscow are left with just two options, tuck tail and run, or try to find a new partner in the regime that follows Assad. Reports suggest that Putin is pursuing the latter strategy.
While Russian state media claimed that Moscow had secured a deal with the rebels to protect the bases as part of a broader agreement that allowed Assad and his family to flee to Moscow over the weekend, There's no evidence to support such claims.
But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier this week that efforts are underway to, quote, establish contact in Syria with those capable of ensuring the security of military bases, end quote. For now, however, Moscow is taking a cautious approach, and with good reason.
During their most intense days of the Syrian civil war, Russian forces engaged in brutal bombing campaigns that indiscriminately targeted civilian sites while helping Assad turn much of Aleppo to dust back in 2016. Given their history in the country, Moscow is likely concerned that the rebels could turn on Russian forces to exact revenge.
Satellite images reveal that Moscow has moved their warships out of the Tartus base for the time being, stationing them roughly 10 miles off the coast. But most personnel reportedly remain on site. Meanwhile, satellite images of Russia's air base also show that most of the Kremlin's equipment, including their jets and helicopters, have not been moved.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said Russia is likely trying to delay a total evacuation while conditions in Syria remain uncertain, holding out hope that they can strike a long-term deal with a transitional government to maintain their regional foothold. Well, that... That seems like a tricky negotiation.
Hey, Islamist rebels, I know we backed your arch enemy for decades and helped him in his various campaigns to kill Syrians and put down rebellion, but come on, that was in the past. Let's be friends, end quote. Yeah, that could be tough.
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