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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
One, I'm very bullish on Solana from the perspective of pretty much every founder I meet and consumer, that is where they just default go to build, right?
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And on the other side of the spectrum, I expect to see like a very strong reversal in Ethereum sentiment.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
I think we've already begun that with Genius Act, Clarity Act, improvement in REV and TVL, DAT bid, institutional bid.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
I think everything is just going to go Ethereum's way this year in particular.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
David, Brian, thank you for having me.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
So I definitely don't want to give the idea that I absolutely do not believe alt L1s or L2s could have their day.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
They absolutely can.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And definitely application specific chains can.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
But if we're talking just about general purpose chains, I think in 2025, it's become abundantly clear that it's incredibly difficult for an incumbent to disrupt the network effects already achieved by Ethereum and Solana.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And especially these general purpose all L1s and L2s, I believe they're going to continue to struggle to attract new liquidity, new users without blasting incentives, right?
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
We've seen a number of alt L1s throughout the last year run these really aggressive deposit campaigns.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
You get nine figures in deposits.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
They pay out a significant amount of incentives and the capital immediately leaves.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And maybe one of the more recent examples of this is Unichain.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
You know, back in July, they were at roughly $1 billion in TVL with the incentives.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
Fast forward to today, they're at circa $100 million in TVL.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And it's just this very common playbook that's been run.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And the reason why is like all the capital ends up going back to Ethereum or Solana.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And I think beyond that, if you were to ask me a year, two years ago, uh,
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
will PumpFun or Polymarket launch their own chain?