Bill Kristol

I won't be canceled just for listening to a wrong opinion.

I don't honestly see, I guess the stories here in McLean, Virginia are not like wildly festooned with, I don't know, obviously gay pride things.

So it's not a problem.

I mean, I think one question has always been how much leverage does Iran think it has and how much pressure do they feel to have a deal, which maybe gives Trump a little bit of face saving, you know, fig leaves.

And how much do they just don't think they have much pressure to have a deal or want to really make clear that they retain leverage on the Straits and retain no and make no commitments on the nuclear issue and get some money up front or whatever.

And a lot of it and so forth.

So, yeah, I've been slightly on the side that they probably at the end of the day want to get to a deal.

And Trump certainly wants to get to a deal.

So they'll get to a deal.

But I also think at some point, it's like you're on the two yard line forever.

At some point, you think maybe they're not going to get into the end zone.

And maybe, you know, the war could begin again.

It's not out of the question, right?

Well, and also just going on week to week,

Trump says he feels no pressure, he's in no rush.

I guess, in a way, he's behaving that way.

But

I think the normal understanding, the normal economist or energy expert understanding is every day, every week that this trade is closed or 90% closed, which is kind of what it is, the pressure increases in terms of energy prices, shortages, fertilizer, everything else.

And there's some workarounds, but those workarounds, almost by definition, get less effective the longer one of the main conduits for energy and oil in particular is closed.

I'm sort of amazed the markets are discounting that.