Scott
Appearances
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
When the other things started appearing last year, people said it was the end of the world. That we were being judged. But people are just going crazy, you know? I don't believe in all that stuff. Things are changing and we have to change with it. Hey, did you say you have a Christine? Is she a hot blonde girl there too? Is she your girlfriend? I didn't like the tone of the new letter.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
What the fuck are you talking about?
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I get it. Hey, so is your girlfriend hot? You fucking that chick that we like. You got a babe.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
If you know what I mean? Immediately. It makes you think that, yeah, he's going to try to swap out.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I had to punish her. I hope yours isn't a whore too, lol. Okay. Uh-oh. All right, so... We're finding that we have a little red pillar here, huh? I think we've got a man going his own way. So I believe this, this does feel like a parallel protagonist here is a bit of a MGTOW red pillar. a little bit. He's like, yeah, there's, there's a lot to unpack. There's a lot to unpack there.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I did have a Christine, but she was a fucking whore. I had to punish her. I hope yours isn't a whore too. Lol. So this is what I'm killed her. Yeah, well, exactly. So he definitely killed her, but I read that also like him saying like, I hope yours isn't a whore too. Like it still, I'm getting that, that feeling of he's this motherfucker's plan on swapping.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I will say, with the red pill angle, you have piqued my interest. Oh, that makes you like the story? No, no, no. Not like it, but I'm like, okay. I didn't know we were going to be dropping some fucking whores here, dude. Yeah, yeah. Just like the hard, hard W. Have we had a MGTOW story yet?
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Well, yeah, I know. I'm just saying it was just, yeah. I mean, have we?
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah, I mean, I guess David King is probably pretty red pill coated, whatever. It's whatever. Just keep going. I'm hooked in. You're waking up a little bit. I'm feeling it in my bones.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
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CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
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I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
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CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Click the link in the description to get started for free. Thank you so much to Rocket Money. Now back to the episode.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Welcome back to Creepcast. How are you guys doing today? We are reading a story called, I wrote a letter to myself and I got a response. Got a response. Which if I wrote myself a letter, I would respond. I would say, you know what? Hey, nice to... I would carry a nice, pleasant conversation with myself. Is that because that's the only one who will write you back?
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
What this is just, this hit the gas. Good God.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
She's a hot one. Better than mine, even. But I can tell she has those same slutting ways. Oh, my gosh. What'd I tell you? I said incel horror film. Whoa, whoa, you were right. Incel horror film. Bear trap. Oh. You were right. She's a hot one. Better than mine, even.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Things are worse here than I let on. Maybe this Christine can keep me happy and satisfied with my life. But who's to say? Like I told you, some people are really losing it over here. Might be I have to come visiting again sometime. More permanently. Tell then, glory and peace, or as you would say, sincerely, Scott. Oh, no. Every implication is horrible.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
That is the end of part one. A little part five series. I will say, ramped up. It's a little bit of rough pumpkins, I'll be honest. We're getting a little in there. I will say, I think it's interesting, the idea of parallel... Parallel worlds. You know, it kind of reminds me of is that a VHS short where the guy opens that portal between worlds.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
yeah uh you know i still like this this idea of contacting your parallel live self and he's able to interact in your world it's just it's going to set up a lot of uh kooky moments but this idea too immediately that his girlfriend got dragged off like that i mean we don't know for a fact but we have to assume she's probably probably dead right or no uh no he's still got her that's why i said like we'll see if this one can keep me satisfied
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
No, no, no, no, no, no. My read on it was an oopsie daisy. I thought she was dead. Oh, I see what you're saying. Oh, no, no, no. I mean, she may wish she was dead, but that's not what's happening. Well, that's what I'm saying. I picked a big bouquet of oopsie daisies is what I did, and I'm sorry about that. I see what you're saying. Let's just keep it rolling, though, into part two here.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
No, I think it's, I think, you know what we, we obviously the idea of the story for my, uh, watching a woman trapped in a room, whatever that cool concept, but it just went into an angle to where obviously there was more to the story we didn't know about. So I think it's only fair that we give somebody like you're saying a fair shake. And this is a nice, this is a five part, uh,
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah, but he could just change it over, though.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah, he's on his knees begging for sure.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah. You big lip son of a bitch. You're ruining my life. You're welcome. You couldn't get out if you wanted to. You know that. You're sounding very much like an evil Scott right now.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
A five-part series that isn't connected to anything else. At least that's what we looked up online. So I think this is a better representation.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
You guys are an amazing, amazing audience. We appreciate you, and thank you for directing that love to the people that are writing these stories. In doing so, it does nothing but help keep the horror writing community afloat and happy, so just know that... Uh, just keep giving people love, man. It's all you can do. So without further ado, let's get into it, man.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I wrote a letter to myself and I got a response.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I just want to say, I love how he's introduced. Like you keep thinking that it's going to be a one thing. And so now we're all from the perspective of Christine.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah. Yeah. I think, I think that's sick.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
No, it's great. Yeah. Yeah. Which is great for a parallel where it's like, I don't know who's real or who's who, you know? Yeah. Anyway, sorry. Hello, Christine. No, no.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
That's a fair question. This is my world. I brought you from yours after hearing good things about you from Scott. Well, the other Scott.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Look, I know what you're thinking. I kidnapped you, knocked you out, and brought you to this place. Hell, I put a collar on you. I guess this all looks really bad, huh? This guy is such a jerk. I know.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I brought you here because I miss my old Christine. See, we were together here too. Things didn't work out too well. I'm not saying it wasn't selfish to take you away, but it was with love in my heart. And as for this... He pointed to the dog collar. I just want to make sure you didn't run out if I wasn't awake or paying attention when you came to.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
My world is pretty different from yours, and it's not safe out there a lot of the time. I wouldn't want you getting hurt on my account.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
i can already tell i'm going to like you better sign wistfully he went on no not yet honey it'll take some time for you to acclimate and until you do i'm afraid you'll be your own worst enemy for now just rest and i'll bring you some food your chain goes far enough for you to reach the bathroom over there but just remember do not flush it during nighttime hours okay that's very important this building is fairly secure but the neighborhood has gone to shit lately
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Lots of home evasions at night and they target buildings where they hear noise or see lights. The blinds keep the light in pretty well, but the pipes in this old bitch keep a fuss when you flush. So just save that for the morning and we should be shiny golden.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Well, it makes it more compelling, I think.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Well, I don't know if I feel like that's, like, there's obviously something odd that happened to where all dogs died or something, but it almost just feels like... I think it just means animals are wiped out. Yeah, it's like just a fucking weird dystopian future or something or parallel, yeah.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
That is the only person that will write me back. And I'll tell you another person that will write me back are you guys about this new merch we're wearing. Merch. We got new merch. Beautiful new merch. Matching.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah, yeah. It feels like that world. That's why it almost feels like it's... I still don't know if I'm thinking creatures as much as just like, you know, I mean like fucking homeless gangs or like... new barbaric tribes are forming in cityscapes.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I think he's got a snap to it sometime, right? Well, he killed Christine, so I'd imagine he already has. Well, I meant to our new Christine. I mean, there's got to be something that is going to, I don't know. I'm just wondering, yeah, what kind of sadistic thing. Well, because I'm wondering if he's going to lie and be like, you know, oh, she tried freaking out on me and she did this or that.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Or, yeah, she's just like, oh, she was having sex with another guy and I killed her. That's what I'm thinking.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I should have expected this kind of cozening from you. You're not as different as I'd hoped.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
You aren't leaving, and there's no real hope for me either beyond embracing this world as is, letting it reshape me so I can survive it.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
he did an excessive amount of blood i'm guessing to like actually paint the doorway to paint a door open yeah yeah the story i'm i'm enjoying it i'm enjoying it is rough admittedly but i'm enjoying it it's much much more graphic than i wrote myself a letter you know i did not expect this to be uh i wrote a shelf a letter and i got your response
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah. You're going to wear this dog collar and I'm going to fucking bite my own fingers off.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I think it's time to be back with regular Scott or at least I hope it is.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I nodded. I think so. He jumped me when I was asleep and drugged me here. I was unconscious, but I didn't see any sign of him when I woke up. He didn't come back out of the room, did he? She shook her head. Then he must be over in our world.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah, it's like, or even just like writing something to myself in that way. I do that a lot in my sketchbooks. Just like writing some weird thing. I wouldn't even say it's note-taking. Sometimes it feels like a direct... Like trying to almost conversate with yourself in some weird way. I don't know. I'm just saying.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I communicated with him through that stationery my aunt gave me. He did the same thing with something an uncle on his side gave him. That paper, the two combined together, is how he makes the doorways. But no matter what I do, nothing seems to work.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
He did, but I have more. When I realized I might not figure out how to get across on my own, I started hoping he would come back for me. I took to sleeping with my shoes on every night, and I kept the strips of paper I had saved tucked into the bottoms of them. If we can figure out how to create the doorway, I have the paper to do it.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
He's like, the dude's probably going to come at some random time and get me.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I bit it just now. I thought maybe it needed fresher blood or something, other than that fucking eraser wiping it on the wall. I don't know. Not Scott is the only one that did this bullshit. Not Christine.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I'm curious if other people who are listening to this, if they've done something similar in some weird way.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Look, it'll work out. We'll figure it out. but it may take some time. Her expression didn't change and I went on. I need to go out and get us some supplies. Figure out if this place is even anything like he said it was. Maybe it's not half bad and he's just a crazy liar.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
beautiful new merch it's the uh we're both wearing the eat me like a bug shirt it's beautiful like a bug we also got a long sleeve uh shirt as well where isaiah's the jeff goldblum i'm the tumor we have a beautiful crew neck we have a beautiful crew neck sweatshirt with a ghastly little ghost and then a nice pair of shorts because it's the springtime put out your legs
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Christine's been here for two weeks. How do we know she's not going to start getting all fucking screwy?
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah, I don't know. That's what I'm... Because he still has not even seen his own Christine in the real world. Like, I don't know. There's a lot going on.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Or prank somebody else stumbling upon the computer or something.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah, it's like the human popping open and the water kind of juicing out of it and stuff.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Then you go to the bank and they're like, hello, Mr. Idiot. And you're like, huh, what? Your entire account is built on that name.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I think also you can... I don't know if it's corrupting. I think you can be... I think that's... I don't think that that's totally... You think she's like a fitting level of mad?
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Well, it's like... Imagine... I mean, cause it is, it's a parallel version of you. Right. But imagine like a stranger, you're gassing up your wife to some guy that you've never heard before. And then she gets kids. Like she gets kidnapped or whatever. To me, I'm like, I think that there's also something to about. Yeah. I think that it's a selfish play.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I don't think that he's like a horrible person or anything, but I do. I can understand the frustration, I guess, from where she's coming from.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Uh, was there a line about that? I don't remember him saying anything like that. I just remember the crying line. Remember the crying that suggested it?
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah, he lied about it, but she's about to lie too. Yeah. Okay, so maybe she is fucking crazy. Yeah. Cause that's, cause that's, that's insane, right? That's cause she's saying like, it motivates him to get us out of here. Like Jesus. Dang. Yeah. So, so we, so we, so we were right. We were right about that. Okay. So she says here, she says, yes, he did.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Then I lied before. I do know a bit more about how to make the door work. Not Scott killed a little girl. He used her blood to open the door.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
It's like the end of a Twilight Zone episode or something. like rod rod sterling walks in he's like an idiot in his own world yeah a complete and total fucking moron approaches and realizes that he has the dumbest fucking name imaginable he's so stupid he forgot he made his name idiot yeah he's so fucking stupid that idiot fits the name of course this can only happen In the Twilight Zone.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Scott, I mean, not Scott, told me that it had to be from a child and the blood only worked as they were dying. I didn't want to tell you because it's so horrible. I don't think there's any other way to get us home. Okay, yeah, she's slipping. Listen, I think my girl Christine, I think she's slipping mentally a bit.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
That would be a great episode, actually.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Um, I think if you have an Amazon prime, the old series is on there and it's like, it holds up so well. It's such a fun watch, man. It's really, really fun.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
The entire time. Imagine a world where you're being called a fucking monkey brain idiot.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Is that or like, I guess, otherworldly thing that we've seen is like people.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Oh, sure. OK, but this is this is the first time that we've actually had someone be like, I'm seeing it with my own eyes. Yes. Yeah. There's like some supernatural thing.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
But this is the first time we've actually heard someone be like, oh, this is like bodies morphing together.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
The parallels with this and the VHS short, the parallels are there.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
He's like, well, you'll probably meet Ken in a window goon. Two fucking simple-brained idiots, mouth-breathing assholes who... He's like, what am I even reading? What is this?
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I'd be so curious to see if that was at all inspired by this. What was the story written? This was seven years ago.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah, parallel monsters is what the short is. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. It's just, which, you know, Very similar. There's horror visuals and stuff, but still, it was just one of those things. I keep coming back to it. Just like the doorway and all that kind of stuff. It is what it is.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah, exactly. Well, I think that's also, I think I liked that. That's part of it. That's part of it. I like that. Yeah, exactly. I like that here of him just being like, you know, sometimes you have to, it's like a fucking, he's like acting like a Robin Hood moment, you know, steal from the rich or whatever, that kind of vibe. That's got to clock in a justifiable evil that I have to do. Yeah.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
It's almost like it's my life every day.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
God damn. You can't make the girl ham sandwich before fucking making your door.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I like how her expression softened a little. She's just like, all right, fine, but the piggy better be quick.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Oh, you dumb son of a bitch. Yep, I totally forgot about that. I totally forgot about that.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I'm sure it'll be okay. We're the odds some roving band is patrolling outside right now, just waiting for a sign of life to break in.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Do it now, fucker! You fucking do it now before they're on top of us!
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Okay, you have to get out of here. Get back to the door. I'm going to destroy it. As soon as you go and then try to catch that fucker and his buddies.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I can't. These aren't regular criminals. They're part of one of the big cults that has sprung up in the last few years. Call themselves the House of the Claw. If they figure out how to make a door, there's nothing stopping them and God knows what else from pouring into your world. They always run in packs of four or five, so I have to try and get the rest of them now. But thank you for offering.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
play ball, get out there, stay comfy. So just wanted to let y'all know, creepcast.store. Go there, grab some beautiful merch if you want to support the channel. And if you just want some new kicks, some new to look fresh, feel free. Also, for all of our audio listeners, thank you for... listening on Spotify and Apple Podcast.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
That's the end of I wrote myself a letter.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I mean, I don't know if it was right. I think that I listen. I think that through what was happening, I think both Christine and regular Scott were being affected by the world. I think wholeheartedly. And I even think I'll to death.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Well, I just mean in terms of being like, is it justifiable what she was saying to get her riled up? No, I don't think so. It's unfortunate. I think that you had to emotionally have to be in that spot to kill a chubby child, whatever. It's so insane. It's so crazy. I mean, I cannot believe it went through. I don't know how you're going to live with yourself after that. It's crazy.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
And the idea, too. How do you feel about that ending of the door opening again?
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Maybe it's the number of the cold or something. No one else would know about the writing aspect. That's true. To me, it's an awesome character growth, how much I ended up liking not Scott and everything. Yeah, yeah. So almost sitting there to where...
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
regular Scott, obviously him and Christine, they're probably broken up and not going when you just went through hell and back and you don't know how you're going to live with yourself with some of the stuff you've done. Right. But it's almost a thing of like where it's like,
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Wanting solace in himself almost like he's just like maybe like, you know, him with this dog and the dog still doesn't even really, you know, it understands that's not his real Scott.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
And then like it would have been interesting if it would have ended with him like looking at his desk being like, you know, every day I kind of wish that a blue letter would pop up or like because I think by him coming back, it kind of cuts that character growth.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
he had um in the story in my opinion when at the end we're just like you know what yep you have to make personal sacrifices i get what my dad meant now to me that's important and this is my world i'm not going to like take i'm not going to jeopardize other people in this world for the sake of myself you're right but at the end when he's just like you know what they recruit you and then like everyone doing like you know look around in his head and a bit that
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
That kind of song. It feels kind of, it feels like freeze frame. And it's just like both the Scots ended up opening a bakery called Scott's bakery. It just felt kind of a bit like, I don't know, but all in all, I will say I had such a great time with the story.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
That is like basically hell. Like if you're going to go that route, like go there, explore it in a fun way and make it a fucking rollercoaster ride. And trust me, it was like having to be with these characters where you hate not Scott at the beginning. Then you start rooting for him. And then the people that you were rooting for, you're kind of like, what are you doing?
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
That character dynamic and the bouncing back and forth and the way that the story read where it kept changing perspectives of who was talking to us, the reader, was just really fun. And it was done in an effective way where it was seamless. It didn't feel clunky or anything because there's other stories that do that. There's stories that will be like, No, I don't know.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Like my, my wife is peeking at me from around corners or something like that. Not that particularly, but then it would be like, my husband's doing this and it's like a different sequel, but it's all from that perspective. So to see a story where it's like, we don't have any of those other breaks. It's like, it's the same cohesive story, but we're jumping around per character and time.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
You know, it's like almost like fucking memento or pulp fiction. It's like that plays with time in a really interesting way. Yeah.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Okay. So I don't want to, I don't, I don't want to make assumptions here. Okay. But Veristal might be a schizophrenic guy.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
this is insane we'll drop a link to the diagram i mean but this is insane and you know here's the thing too in like this is impressive this world building world building in this way is incredible to have thoughts that interconnect in this way you could you could also completely get rid of the exposition dump of like yeah well apparently it's a cult that does this you can get rid of that but
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
It being in there was not as distracting as like going through Narnia at the end of a story.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
If you know Veristal, and you like his work, it seems like all of his stories connect together in a way where they can be standalone to where if someone had never heard of it before, they would probably not think much of it. But it's just a little other Easter egg to where I'm sure it makes reading his work as a whole a lot more rewarding and how those things play off each other and
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
That's what we fucking need. That's what we need from you, dude.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah, I just slip into a seizure and I just drop to the floor.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I had such a great time. And I'll be honest. Like I wrote myself a letter. I got a response. Yeah.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
is it the strongest hook we've had in terms of titles probably not but i will say it did well just uh i really really enjoyed the invent like the creative like the creativity of hopping between characters like the revelation in part two was just so fun like i really enjoyed that man and then even getting like in part three when you're like oh now this is christine it just
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
it kept revealing itself in this fun time. And I don't think it overstayed its welcome to with making it like some self masturbatory schlock fest of like, we're in this fucking world and people are, yeah, they stabbed this woman to death. And it was just enough to just be like, well, yeah, it's a horrible fucking place.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
We get to experience it and get in, dip our toes in and be like, Jesus, I do want to get out of here to where, when they come to the conclusion of being like, well, I guess we're going to, kill this little girl, kill a child. It's something that in their moment as their fucking minds are being twisted. Yeah.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
They're probably going to justify, but that's one thing too, in this real world that it's like, you're going to, you're going to live with that forever, which also makes sense to me where I was like, Oh, they're going to break up obviously. And like, probably be like, yeah,
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Well, I think... I don't even think not Scott was necessarily evil. I mean, here's the thing. Yes, he's a murderer. He's definitely a murderer. I'm not saying he's a good guy. I'm just saying that he is conscious enough of... He is not insane. I think he knows that he's going... I think the world made him evil.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
What I mean is, like, I think that he realizes that his mind is being corrupted and he cannot help the things that he's doing. And an act of desperation did this horrible thing, you know, and all that stuff as well, which... I just don't know. It's, it's an interesting, it was just interesting back and forth.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
And there's really no, there's no character who didn't do something fucking horrible in the story. Christine and regular Scott. They, I mean, everybody did, did some fucking horrifying thing to try to get back to the normal world. And the normal world is basically heaven. If you've been in that other world.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah. It's simple. We kill the child. You want to know how I got these scars? That's Scott. You want to know how I got these scars? I stabbed a 10-year-old girl. I stabbed a morbidly obese child.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
She was pre-Type 1 and she shit all in this bathroom and it smelled like hell.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Good to hear from you. I've been watching you when I can for years. And it seems like universes have finally given us a way to talk. I'm guessing that you have apartment 3B on Nesbitt Street in Baltimore, right? And your Uncle Tom gave you the boxes stationary for your birthday? It's so weird. I guess things have to line up just right.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah, she flushed the toilet after midnight because this is also kind of like Gremlins. What an absolutely brutal... I love that connectivity. I wonder if he was writing it and he's just like, how do I get to the Colton here? And he's like, yeah, what if I just say that you can't use the shitter after this time?
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Or else it basically sounds like the fucking blue man groups playing in your apartment building or something.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Well, they got the, uh, they, I liked that part too. Actually, whenever, uh, Christine like gives him a look like, are you fucking stupid? And he's like, well, dude, she has to take, it's a, can she not take a final shit? Come on, it's just a kid, which I think is funny because he can justify not feeding her. He can justify letting her shit.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
And then because of that, he's like, come on, she's a girl. But then he's also like, I'm going to stab you to death. I'm going to fucking stab you. Come on, Christine. For fuck's sake, she has to take a shit. Come on.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Yeah, exactly. Stab, stab, stab, stab. And she's like, read, read, read. I'm kidding. Okay, so here we go. So that was the story. It was fucking awesome. Be sure to check out Veristal's stuff.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I hate myself. I hate myself. So check out Veristal's stuff. And also, I mean, like, I don't know. If there's any viewers or listeners here who have...
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
done a deep dive into the rest of his stuff i'm super curious to see comments of like how else the stories interconnect in that way uh because it's it is fascinating and like i do think that i have an appreciation a more of an appreciation for that universe after reading the story i just really really like this story i think even i liked it more than obviously i'm watching a woman uh trapped in a room but i think that's just because also i liked scott as a character more i think that like just a really really fun character piece with three
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
uh, characters going through hell and back. So, um, a lot of fun. Also, once again, creepcast.store, check us out there, get your merch there. Uh, if you're watching this on YouTube, consider checking us out on Spotify and Apple podcasts, all that shit, giving us the ratings. We have to plug it. It just helps us out. So please, uh, thank you guys so much for watching the episode and, uh, Isaiah.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
If this actually works and you're reading this, I know it will probably come as a shock. I don't think your side knows about us like we do you. But that's cool. We could swap stories.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I understand you being skeptical. Think it's all a joke, right? Well, here's some info like you asked, and I sent along something that might help convince you. Our world is a lot like yours, though it's different in some ways. About 40 years ago, we had a lot of animals started dying off. Not all of them, of course, but most of the birds, all the dogs, and a few other species here and there.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
Still don't know why. But around that same time, we lost our mirrors. What I mean is, our mirrors stopped showing our reflections. A lot of them just went dark, and some of them, where they have twins in your world, would show us your reflections instead. We knew it was reflections, because all the writing is backwards. And I could tell from the letters, you don't actually write backwards anyhow.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
If you haven't done that yet, please go to Apple Podcast or Spotify and check out Creepcast where you can give us a five-star rating there and listen on the audio. It helps us out a lot. Isaiah, who writes this beautiful, beautiful story?
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
LOL. But after that, a lot of people started changing, getting weird or violent. It's stabilized some now, but it was really bad when I was younger. A lot of people died. Anywho, like I said, things are better now. Though we do have odd stuff pop up and people go missing some. Is your world like that?
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
From what I've seen and what I know of studies people on our side have done observing active mirrors, it seems like things are a lot better over there. If so, I'm kind of jealous. But in close, you'll find one of our nickels. It's got President Robert Kennedy on it. He was president from 1969 through 1977. That's kind of funny timing. What's going on in the world right now? I don't know for sure.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
I think he's... I don't know for sure, but I think I read he's one of the differences between your place and mine. Right back soon. I just want to say this really quick, too. If that first message came, I would crumble that paper. I would not give a fuck. What do you mean? If I saw somebody right back there, hey man, I'd be like, okay. I would assume it was a prank or something.
CreepCast
I Wrote Myself A Letter, I Got A Response | Creep Cast
You wouldn't be afraid? You wouldn't be afraid? Listen, if I got the response, like now at this stage, it would fuck me up. This is like some Twilight Zone shit. I'm saying the very first one where I was like, okay. I would seriously probably disregard it. But this would be fucking me up. I would not respond anymore. Keep the world separate is what I say.
Dateline NBC
Arrest in UnitedHealthcare CEO murder. Drama at a Georgia sentencing. And Josh Mankiewicz on "Deadly Mirage."
I absolutely did not murder my father. Without a doubt, I loved him.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Well... Okay, so first, I just want to put this in historical context. When I graduated from the Haas School of Business in 1992, it was a recession. 40% of us had jobs on graduation, which means most of us did not. And, you know, we've had such a bull run among MBAs.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
All right, enough of you. Claire, bomb in here. We need someone with actual personality. We need some salsa on this chip. What did you do this weekend, Claire?
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
I had someone in HR from Amazon call me and say, if you send us names of your most talented students, other than a background check, we'll hire them. At one point, if I had a class of 160 kids, 30 of them were going to Amazon for the summer for an internship, and all of them were getting offers. I mean, big tech was hoovering up human capital like it was going out of business.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
They have slowed their hiring. In addition, I wonder if this is in fact an externality of AI, and that is... What you've seen, the investment banks stopped hiring as many MBAs because what they decided is for cultural reasons, they wanted to find good undergrads and train them and then just hold on to them. So they stopped, they dramatically reduced their MBA hiring.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
And I wonder if you're, I mean, if you're a consulting firm, you're probably of the mind that we're going to take our existing employee force, we're going to upgrade them with AI training. And we don't need any more human capital. We're going to increase over the next three years our associates' productivity by 10% a year.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
And in three years, three analysts are going to be able to do the work of four or five. So we should scale back our hiring. And also, MBAs, the average compensation for MBAs, because big tech drove up the price because of the demand. All of a sudden, big tech was the bigger, badder employer than investment banks and started bidding up salaries.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
And the average salary of a Stern grad with bonus and options was $212,000. That's the average. So every person making $120,000 going into something not as sexy, there was someone making... 320,000 in investment banking or private equity or big tech even. So I wonder if some of it is MBAs, quite frankly, have just priced themselves a little bit out of the market. AI is seeping in.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
But this is kind of, if you're an MBA from a top school, it's not that you don't have a job. It's that you don't have a job that you want, right? And so all of these kids could get a job, I think. I'm sure my email box is going to get loaded up with, okay, bitch, get me a job. But MBA is typically the kids I come across in school are so talented, so credentialed.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
They're kind of like pre-screened Navy SEALs. They're just so ready to work, so good at what they do, so credentialed, so talented with technology. They understand accounting. They understand cost accounting, finance, marketing. These are athletes.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
That's right. That's right. And how many of you went? And what did you guys do? What were the lows and the highs of the French Caribbean island?
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
And if they have to take a cut in pay or be a little bit more aggressive in terms of location where they move to or the job or the prestige of the firm, so be it. But I think these people are still going to be fine.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Hey, it's Scott Galloway. In today's marketing landscape, if you're not evolving, you're getting left behind. In some ways, it's easier than ever to reach your customers, but cutting through the noise has never been harder. So we're going to talk about it on a special PropG Office Hour series.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
We'll be answering questions from C-suite execs and business leaders about how to market efficiently and effectively in today's chaotic world. So tune into PropG Office Hour special series brought to you by Adobe Express. You can find it on the PropG feed wherever you get your podcasts.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
I'm glad. And I heard that Ed didn't attend because he's decided he's better than everyone else.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
He's decided he doesn't want to fraternize with... I tried to get him to join late.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
The thing that struck me was that for the drawdown or all of the focus on the big players, NVIDIA, Oracle, you saw an equally vicious, maybe more aggressive drawdown in the energy stocks. Yes. The nuclear guys, Constellation. So my question is, who's on the right side of this trade? Are there Chinese companies? Are there other companies?
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Does Google do better because it might not be threatening search? I'm trying to find an analogy here, and the closest I could come up with is that we thought PCs were going to change the world. And PC manufacturing wasn't a great business. It ended up being software. Do you find any other sort of historical analogies or economic history that you think can be applied to what's going on here?
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Was it your friend's engagement party or your girlfriend's friend? It was my friends. Oh, nice. And where was it and what did you do? It's just like, oh, open gifts and pretend we like the gifts. What was it?
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
It's an interesting thesis that if you went one layer down to the companies that were allocating a significant amount of money to develop their own AI applications.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
I think of a company like an Expedia or Airbnb who are going to have to probably put aside $1,500, $200, $300 million over the next three or four years in CapEx if they might come out and say, we're going to be able to build this stuff and we think we'll get all of the great taste without the calories of this huge CapEx. I wonder if there's a layer down that will benefit.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Okay. Yeah, I've been—so just so you know, I've been to St. Bart's 14 times, and every time it gets a little bit better. Typical Gen Z fashion. You didn't ask me what I did this weekend, so I'll tell you. I also went somewhere formidable. I went—I had my 14-year-old for the weekend. And, you know, I hate kids, so having him alone is especially—
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
I would argue the market has come to the recognition that it's no longer – the market used to be about innovation as opposed to investment. And then since Amazon and Netflix, it's just prioritized who can invest the most. And this feels to me like somewhat of a swing back towards, no, it really is about innovation, not just who has the most money.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
But if that, in fact, is true, and the big guys are really going to get hurt here – Their drawdowns, as dramatic as they were, because they're talking about the gross dollar amount, $600 billion shed from NVIDIA, but it just kind of takes them back to where they were in October. It's like a little bit, call me when they're down 80%.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
It's not. It's not. It's taking a break.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
It just sort of didn't... It just kind of went back to where it was a few minutes ago in the world of this party.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
upsetting so we decided to jump on the eurostar saturday morning and we went to paris and we went and saw psg play which was amazing i don't know if you guys have heard this but paris is an incredible city and psg fans are are fantastic interesting who was playing like who who were the the players on the pitch they played ren's ren's ren so i'll just call you around and they tied which was a big bummer for psg what was the score
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
So the U.S., 5% of the world's population, a quarter of its GDP, and right now it's about half the value of all stocks globally. The U.S. stock market represents 50% of all stocks globally. And if you use that, and I think it's a safe bet to say that's a proxy for private market valuations, it's saying that the U.S. is worth as much as the rest of the world.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
And I want to bring this down to an investment strategy and get some stock recommendations. I am, when faced with this question, if someone offered me one share in the U.S. or one share in the rest of the world, and they were both priced the same, As much as I love the U.S., as bullish as I am, I would pick the rest of the world to outperform at the same price as the U.S.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
1-1. I'm bored by this banter. Let's move on to the headlines.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
And so I am slowly but surely rotating out of U.S. stocks into international stocks. You've written a lot about European stocks and stocks in the U.K. Do you think that's a rotation or a reversal of the flows of capital is here? And specifically, what do you think of European and U.K. markets?
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Well, it was clearly the wrong time for you to give up meth, bitch. I hire you to stay addicted and be interesting.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
All right, straight man. Read the headlines.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Are there specifics? I'm a fan of Fallen Angels. I was looking at Nova Nordisk, which has been cut in half. Are there specific sectors or names that you're looking at in Europe or the UK?
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Today's number, $15,000. That's a new cost for a permit to climb Mount Everest, up 36% from the previous fee. True story. On May 25th, 2001, a blind man named Eric Wallenheimer summited Everest. When asked how he felt, he said, I'm going to kill this fucking guide dog. That's good. That's good. I don't hear anybody laughing. The producers aren't laughing. Do I need to go back to the porn jokes?
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
So final question, Robert, the 10 years at about, I've said on this show that I think the adult in the administration is the 10 year. Yes, that's correct. It's at 4.6% today. Everything we've been talking about, and I'm bringing some bias here, but we did immigration policy. What you said, people think agriculture is dominated by immigrants or undocumented workers. That's 14%.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
It's 17% in construction. So you look at the cost to rebuild or places like Los Angeles or just general, we need a lot more housing in the country. You talk about deficits, which I think are inflationary. I would argue that tariffs are ultimately inflationary. It just feels as if, well, I'll ask you. I think the 10 years going over, I think we might see a 5.5% tenure by the end of the year.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
I think the notion that he's demanding that interest rates come down, I think the bond market says, hold my beer.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
So what are your, if you had to try and play, you know, 10-year bingo, end of the year, end of 2025, any thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
So I think of rebalancing as the other side of the coin or the action from the reaction side. or the decision to diversify. And I didn't realize how powerful and important diversification was. I was always all in on one company thinking that's how you got really rich.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
And both in 2000 and 2008, that lack of diversification basically took me from someone who was wealthy to someone who was very much not wealthy. So now when I think of rebalancing, what I do is it's not that I sell stocks to get out. What I do is when I have a liquidity event, I think, okay, where should I invest where I'm not already really concentrated?
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Rebalancing when you're in your 20s and 30s. As soon as you have an asset base of, say, more than six figures and something, Sometimes you have to go all in on a house because it's your first house you need to borrow from your in-laws, et cetera. Sometimes you have to go all in on a business to start a business.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
But once you have a decent or a nest egg or something resembling real capital, you need to think immediately, okay, I don't want to be that idiot Scott Galloway. and go back to zero because it's not only financially stressful, it's emotionally and mentally really stressful. If you have a company that's doing well and it's raising money, take some money off the table.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Ask your board if you can take some money in a secondary. If you have one stock that gets above 50 or 60% because it's NVIDIA and it's gone up tenfold, sell some of it and balance. Don't be an idiot like me. Don't end up with 70, 80, 90%
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
of your net worth in one asset, no matter how attractive that asset may seem, red envelope is going public on the NASDAQ, Credit Suisse First Boston and Frank Wachon are taking this public. It's going to be worth a billion dollars. Daddy's looking at jets. And then he wasn't.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Take some money off the table the moment you have the opportunity to and more than 50% of your net worth is in any one asset. Do not be Prof G.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Yeah, who would have thought that China would come up with something cheaper? I mean, it's just so... It's classic. It's so interesting, right? It just kind of made sense. And it feels as if... And I'm guilty of this. The U.S. is so far ahead in everything. Everyone else is an idiot. No one else can do anything around AI.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
And then China says, all right, we're going to figure out a workaround for you holding back your chips. And it's already been tempered a little bit today around some rumors that, in fact, they aren't being forthcoming about the processing power required to do this and what what type of chips they actually use, but there's just no getting around it.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
This is a tectonic shift in the market or the perception of what's going to happen here. And I wonder if So far, there are no winners, right? Chinese stocks didn't go up. I mean, this trillion dollars that the market shed last night, is it just the market correcting or is that money going to flow somewhere else? And I thought, well, it'll be Chinese stocks. No, they weren't really up.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
And I thought, well, would it be pharmaceutical stocks or companies that would have to spend a lot of money? In other words, is there a layer of companies that... don't have enough capital or focus or expertise to be in the AI business themselves, but we're going to have to spend a shit ton of money on AI that now aren't going to have to.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
The cost advantage of DeepSeek, they claim, is 90-95% cheaper for business and free for individual users versus OpenAI's $20 a month subscription. I'm actually using the $200 a month one so I can play with Sora. In terms of training efficiency, it's at least 10 times less expensive to train, using only 2,000 NVIDIA GPUs compared to tens of thousands for similar models.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
In the energy savings, it operates with just 5% to 12%, or about a tenth of the energy of comparable AI models. In energy stocks, Siemens Energy and Constellation fell more than 20% on Monday. The drawdown was just as vicious in energy stocks. It also—I mean, there's a few things here. One, when—
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
an economy as diverse as ours becomes as concentrated in tech from a valuation standpoint, there's a risk where you know, it's not that you're too big to fail. It's just that if you sneeze, the entire market's going to catch a cold. The Magnificent Ten represent something like 27% of the stock market.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
If we're half the world's valuation, then 13% of the world's economy, arguably, are going to take their cues from the Magnificent Ten, and many of them have been driven up by AI. NVIDIA's 17% drop on Monday erased nearly $600 billion in value. That's more than the entire... I mean, think about this. NVIDIA's shed... The Mexican stock market. That's just staggering.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
It also is going to inspire some really interesting conversations around trade. I mean, in terms of game theory, what if we had not prohibited or embargoed these sophisticated chips from China? Would they have gone full throttle into this CapEx race and not developed this workaround or would they have done it differently? Yeah.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Is that what's going on here? Anyways, today, welcome to Property Markets. In today's episode, oh, time to get that $15,000 so we can summit Everest. Today's episode is presented by Fundrise, and we're speaking with Robert Armstrong, U.S. financial commentator for the Financial Times. But first... Ed, what's going on? I'm doing very well, Scott. How are you doing? Well, that was exciting banter.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Look, the thing that we know is for real is that the model itself is very robust, right? And say it's not a tenth, say they exaggerated and it's half as expensive, it's still kind of a paradigm shift. And in general, what you see in most consumer markets is that over time, the market evolves to a zero and one. And what I affectionately refer to as the Walmart Tiffany effect or Android iOS.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
And that is there's a lowest cost layer that a lot of people use that gets mass adoption and figures out an ad modeler. or a lower margin business model. And then there's iOS, and that is the phone cost three times the average monthly salary of a citizen in Hungary.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
So I either want something that's super robust for more complicated, bespoke, artisanal uses, or I want just a decent, reasonable facsimile at the lowest cost possible. I'm a huge fan of competition, even if that competition comes from overseas. So this is super interesting.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
And I wonder if there are specific companies or if this is just going to be something where it increases the productivity of the nation, but that productivity or those gains aren't crammed into a small number of companies, which you could argue is.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
It's an interesting thought. So the tail that wags the dog here is there's been such a deep freeze in IPOs that the exits of the liquidity events that PE usually counts on have not been there.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
So a lot of people, essentially, whether it's an institutional investor that needs to fund pensions for its teachers or even another fund that wants to get liquidity events so it can continue to make its own investments— The hunger for liquidity right now is getting greater and greater and greater, and these exits aren't there.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Jesus, bitch. I don't pay you to be a fucking robot. Literally, AI just fired AI. Now AI is going to fire Ed. It says banter. Come up with something interesting. What's going on, Ed? Let's start over.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
And so if you're an institution that was counting on a decent amount of liquidity in three to five years, and it's been five to seven, a secondary market evolves. And I wonder, I would bet there's opportunity in secondary markets because there's a lot of dislocation or inefficiency. What do I mean by that? It is not easy to put a value on a private company held by a private equity company.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
It's not the price discovery there is really difficult. So immediately when I heard this story, I thought, is there an opportunity to find somebody really good who knows how to buy these firms? Where you want to be on the right side of a trade is when you're on the other side of a for-seller. Now, these folks have, generally speaking, so much money that there probably aren't that many for-sellers.
Prof G Markets
Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
But I think that's what you're saying to come to light here. But I think it's probably an opportunity as an asset class.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Support for this show comes from Public.com. If you're serious about investing, you need to know about Public.com. That's where you can invest in everything, stocks, options, bonds, and more. And even under 6% or higher yield that you can lock in with a bond account. Visit Public.com slash PropG and get up to $10,000 when you transfer your old portfolio. That's Public.com slash PropG.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And that is we're going to have minimum wage of $50 an hour for everybody who works with us on a contract basis or part-time or is paid hourly. And we're going to have a minimum annual compensation, including bonus, of $100,000 a year. And why are we going to do this? Because we can. And we make really good money. And I make a shit ton of money.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And if I make a shit ton of money minus a half a million dollars a year, that's okay. But what's going to happen to the second Ferrari?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Yeah, the thing about for me getting a Ferrari is that my dick is too big. But anyways, if you're a company like WME or on a much, much smaller scale, Profiting Media... Ari, you don't need a second billion. It's not going to make you any fucking happier, boss. You know what's going to make you happier is helping people move out of their car if they make a bad decision.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
You know, my question to the senior manager at WME is, given your blessings and your strength and your skills, are you protecting and providing for your professional family? I mean, are you really protecting them? Are you really providing for them?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And the senior level people will be fine, but it's the people at the lower end or the people in the engine room you probably don't have a lot of contact with. Are you really acting like a man? Is that what it means to be a man, to extract enormous economic benefit without protecting and providing for the people who are not as fortunate or don't have face time with you?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Anyways, I'm all riled up about this. And if anyone wants to turn this into an original series, call my agent at CAA. Love you guys. But my agents are nice. If my agents weren't in charge, they wouldn't put up with this shit.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Today's number 116. That's the percentage increase in egg interceptions by customs at the U.S.-Mexico border in the first two months of this year. Ed, true story. I was at a farm and I hurt my ass. I didn't know whether to see the proctologist or a vet.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Yeah, something about billionaires that don't pay their people kind of chafes me. But anyways, I don't know the guy. I don't know the guy. He's obviously very successful, brilliant agent. But what's the point? What's the point of all the success? Anyways, thank you for my virtue signaling moment.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
This is an amazing brand, amazing human capital. I imagine they have incredible retailer relationships around the world. It's a global brand. It's still arguably, I would imagine, one of the 20 best brands. I don't know. This feels like an activist to me because it feels like someone's going to show up with $1 billion to $3 billion in stock.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And say, we're here, we're going to give Elliot, the new CEO, a chance to do his thing for a year. But if it doesn't work, we want to see pretty serious cost cutting. But I like the company. I would consider actually investing here.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
So there's a few things that are optimistic and pessimistic. The first is just on a brand level, when you get to the level of ubiquity of Nike and you're basing it on High margin, which is Latin for being more attractive to mates or self-expressive benefit or making people feel closer to God.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
It's very hard to maintain that margin and brand power because the moment your mom shows up with Nikes, you're no longer interested in wearing Nikes as the 19-year-old kid. And basically, most of fashion is dictated by a young aspirational male or female. And so generally speaking, these companies that are really brand-driven, they have trouble getting above, say, $5, $7, $10 billion.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And Nike was able to do it. Fiscal year 2024, it got to $50 billion. But at some point, if everyone was wearing Van Cleef, you would find that other competitors would come in. People look at this as self-expressive benefit. And once every kid in high school is wearing Nikes, kids go, I don't want Nike. I want to express my differentiation.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
I didn't put the bestiality in there. I should have gone simpler. I have a dildo farm. Unfortunately, it was taken over by squatters. Jesus Christ, you're literally low IQ with my porn jokes.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And what Hermes has done is they've said, okay, it's not about volume. It's about scarcity, the illusion of scarcity. I remember I was buying a Kelly bag for someone in my life, and they acted it as if it was an act of God to get me this fucking bag. And I'm like, okay, it's such manufactured scarcity.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
These are not difficult items to manufacture, but they're really smart because they know if these things become in any way – I don't even become – I won't even say they won't even become ubiquitous, but become even ever-present or common – They're done. They can't charge $18,000 for a bag that probably costs $1,200 to produce.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
It is difficult for a company like Nike to maintain the growth expectations the street wants from them while maintaining that sense of aspiration and exclusivity. So that's the bad news. The things they have for them or that Elliott has going for them is, one, he has cloud cover to do the very ugly and hard work of cutting costs like a madman right now. He can pretty much do whatever he wants.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
He's brand new. The board is going to give him at least two or three years to try and do his thing, probably longer. He has cloud cover to cut costs.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
He's probably gonna have to reconfigure the approach to marketing because if you think about what's changed, their core competence was they were smart enough to get very tightly integrated with, I think it was Whedon Kennedy, and you could smell a Nike commercial coming on. Like in the first second, you're like, oh my God, this is a Nike commercial, pay attention. And the primary weapon
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
of branding, and that is great commercials and broadcast television, that weapon has become duller and duller and duller. And that is broadcast television is just no longer as effective because the most aspirational people who Nike wants wearing their shoes probably aren't watching a lot of commercials on broadcast television now. So they have had to kind of reinvent.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Now, have they been as good around influencer marketing, around supply chain? I don't know. But it's got to be heartbreaking for a lot of the people at Nike who have worked really hard, really good, very talented people, and they've made no money in terms of their equity value. over the last 10 years. If you started there 10 years ago, you haven't made it, unless maybe it's RSU, it's not options.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
But I would, again, I see more risk to the upside. And that is, I would feel fairly confident betting that the stock doubles from here in the next two to three years versus getting cut in half because the brand value is just so powerful. Anyways, Nike, just do it.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
That's because her prefrontal cortex, which is executive function and management ability and ability to interpret profanity, are 18 months ahead of yours. It'll catch up soon, though.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup. Episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube. By the way, I absolutely love Vivien too. I think she does a great job.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
No, no, no, no, no, no, no. No one needs to hear a guy my age explaining squatting and dildos.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
There you go, little soldier. You'll get there.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
I'm doing well. I'm excited about it. I'm taking my son on his college tour on Saturday. I'm excited about that. or what I call the places he won't get in. Where are you going? Can you share? We're going to Wisconsin. We're going to Illinois. We're going to Michigan. We're going to Virginia. We're going to... Massachusetts, New York, North Carolina. Wow.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
So as Germany goes, kind of so goes Europe, largest economy, about 4.6 or 4.7 trillion. I think the next biggest is the UK at about three and a half. If the US can't be counted on, In terms of resources for Ukraine, then EU gets to make a decision around how supportive or not supportive they are of Ukraine.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
There's very few things he listens to me about, and one of them is college. And I've said, just you got to trust me on this. You want the kind of, in my view, the big college, fall leaves, football games, fraternities, sororities experience. I just think it's incredibly singular. Does he agree? Yeah, he's kind of a mini-me. Angry, depressed. No, he really is sort of, we're very similar.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And that's largely, I think, going to be dictated not entirely, but substantively by Germany's approach or view on how supportive or not supportive they want to be. of Ukraine.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Could you attempt to distill for us the general feeling about the war in Ukraine and how resolute or how firmly behind Ukraine, Germany is or isn't, given the fact that Europe's now, I mean, I hate to say this, but more on their own than before in terms of support or lack thereof of Ukraine?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Prof G. Paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokered services for U.S. listed registered securities, options, and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. I should also disclose I am an investor in public.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And I feel as if I know him and he's... He's pretty social and smart and all that good stuff. So I think he would benefit from kind of a big land grant. Am I just trying to live? Am I like, have I become like Serena Williams' dad? Am I just living my life with my son right now? No, you are going to Michigan because I couldn't. Because I couldn't. Yeah, exactly.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
We should. Thank you for that, Ed. Well done.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Now is the time to fly. I hope you have plenty of the wherewithal.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
There's always a question as an American living in Europe that how come Europe hasn't been able to establish very many tech unicorns? If you look at the number of unicorns that have come on the scene, the proportion of them is actually still fixed in the U.S. It appears that the rise of China has come at the expense of Europe. And there's a lot of questions about culture. My thesis has always been
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
in Germany, because they do a pretty good job of creating on-ramps for, quite frankly, for young men into a decent middle-class life, even without a college degree, that the downside isn't as great, so people aren't as risk-aggressive. What do you see happening in the German tech sector? And I've met the CEO of a company called Salonis.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And I'm just curious what you think about software and the German tech environment.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
What's interesting is to think if they could do it all over, would they still be in this business? And they got into the content business when everyone, I feel as if Apple decides, okay, we need a call option. We needed a call option on the headsets. When meta was getting into them, we need a call option and content.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And I think that when you look at decisions, you have to look at it the way the military looks at it. And that is when they're reviewing an officer's decisions on the battlefield, they don't look at the outcomes. They look at given what he or she knew at that moment, was it the right decision?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And I think that figuring out quality content that maybe motivates people to continue to buy an iPhone over a Galaxy, you could see how they would justify it. And also, they have the capital to kind of go mostly toe-to-toe, and even they can't go toe-to-toe. I think they spend $4 or $5 billion a year on content, and Netflix is at $18 billion.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
I imagine the business plan didn't say in six years we'll still be losing a billion dollars. This is a different thing because Apple, a billion dollars is a lot of money for most people. It's not for Apple. It reported $94 billion in net income in its last fiscal year. And at average revenue of $800 per iPhone, Apple would need to sell one and a quarter million iPhones every year.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
So the question, the analysis they've done, I imagine, is... does this probably inspire another one and a quarter million people a year of their installed base? They sell 232 million iPhones globally in 2023. So can we get another half a percent either upgrade and not switch to Android or get an incremental half a percent because of the Apple TV offering.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Now, I don't think it's because you get – when I bought my iPhone, I think I got a free year of Apple TV+. I don't know if that even registers with people who are buying an iPhone. What I do think, though, is that what they have done a really good job of is
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
is they kind of took an HBO Plus approach to their content, and that is shows like Greyhound, Ted Lasso, and now Severance, and then The Morning Show, are of such incredible production quality that it feels very Apple-esque. I think their content is very on-brand.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
The question is, they went into a field that is too crowded, but for a billion dollars is the marketing halo of that amazing content almost like a marketing expense. What do you think?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
I don't on this side of it. I really like the folks at WME. I don't know Ari. I don't think I've ever met him. And Patrick Whitesell, I have met a couple times. He's got a central casting for what an agent should be. He's this tall, handsome guy who's very good at making you feel important.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Every time I've seen him, he comes up and he says, you know, big fan and super nice, super likable, like total kind of baller, impressive guy. Ari is an icon in the industry, very smart. And just so I can get fired by my agency, my general sense is this is financial engineering such that the top two or three guys can rape the company and its shareholders.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
They're part of the virus that infects American management where they see the company as a vehicle for them to vastly overpay themselves and to underpay people at the low end. The stock basically has underperformed the market. My guess is when it went public, he and Patrick got an enormous payday. And meanwhile, entry-level assistant pay at WME was raised from $15 to $18 an hour in 2020.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Well, that was big of them. roughly $37,000 a year and has not increased since. So I think this is a conspiracy between Silver Lake and the senior management to basically fuck shareholders and take advantage of a marketplace where a lot of people want to be in the great big business of Hollywood.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Buying a house has long been considered the best way to build wealth and move into true adulting.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And I think it's insane that a company like this would pay anyone in the organization 15 or 18 bucks an hour. So does this make sense? I don't know. What's the rationale? Why did this make sense to go public? just a few years ago. And then why does it make sense to go private now, if not just to make the people in charge and some of the board members really fucking rich?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Okay, the handbag you can probably manage without. But what about a house? Surely that's actually good, right? We're going to find out this week on Explain It To Me. New episodes every Sunday morning, wherever you get your podcasts.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
I love what Sam Harris said, and that is, if you have economic security and people who love you, you have an obligation to speak the truth. And I love the people at WME. By the way, I don't even think it's just the junior people getting fucked here. I mean, the thing about tech, for all the shit we give tech, When they do really well, they generally share those spoils.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
So I would love to know, and I think a reasonable question is, if an assistant has been there, any employee been there longer than a year, are they making any money? Are they getting anything from this? And what I think, I'm not sure, but what I would imagine is that even mid-level and even senior agents there, they're not really participating in this payday.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
There needs to be a different zeitgeist in corporate America, where if you're blessed like these guys are, You share the wealth specifically with the lowest people. And let me – I never want to pass up a chance to virtue signal, but we've been talking at Prop G Media. You know, we're small. We're 18 people. But we make a really good living. And we do really well. We're blessed.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
We're very good at what we do, but we're sort of in the right place at the right time, media, podcasting. We're drafting off of the monstrous talent of an aging professor. But the result is we have an exceptionally high margin, profitable little business. And so we've been talking about, and I think we're going to do this, going to what we call a maximum wage business.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
There's another family doing that. I'm trying to think of who that is. Another family that has a bunch of fucking idiot sons running his business while he's in government.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I actually read it differently in the sense that, okay, so we know what it means. We know the top decile are killing it and continue to have more money to invest and spend. But my understanding is the top 10% control 90 plus percent of the assets.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And if they're responsible for half the consumer economy, it means they're actually, and because they can, they're saving and investing a lot more than the bottom 90, right, as a percentage of their income. Right. And what would that mean? That would mean that luxury brands would do really well, high-end travel would do really well.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And for me, it's an argument for a more progressive tax structure where we put more money in the pockets of the bottom 90 because the wonderful thing about the lower and the middle classes is that, distinct to the moral argument of putting more money in their pockets— When you give them a dollar, they spend it. And there's a much greater multiplier for that.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
It's much more stimulative than when you put a dollar in the pocket. The Republicans have done a great job of convincing people that a dollar put in the hands of our most efficient or most productive, is what they refer to rich people, is that they invest it and grow the economy. And you do need some of that. You do need capital and people who invest and save and take risks.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
But we're long on risk capital. What we're short on is people who have money to spend and grow in the economy. And I think this is another example, as you said, of income inequality. But we're seeing, essentially, they're not spending nearly as much money as they have. And again, it's just another argument for more progressive tax structure.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I went shopping in Montclair with my kid last week. He's like, I need a ski jacket. I'm like, I'll take it to Montclair. I love the apparel and the fashion and skiing. I just don't like skiing much. Yes.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
It's a really good question, Ed, because unfortunately... Unless you have, I think a key cohort in history has been class traitors. And that is when Teddy Roosevelt was elected by the railroad barons, he immediately got into the White House and said, now I'm, thanks so much, I'm breaking you up. And they thought, wow, what a traitor or a turncoat.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
We put this guy in office, now he's breaking us up. And I think that where we really need some class traitors is among the 0.1 or the 1%. And that is, I think there's this unholy bargain between Trump and the Democratic Party and the 0.1%. And that is, okay, at dinner parties, you talk about income inequality, but you're not really willing to go aggressively.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
You'll still show up at his inauguration and be paraded around like some little bitch because under the auspices of shareholder value, you decide to totally ignore American values. And the reason why rich people are only giving kind of symbolic resistance here is because guess what, folks? We're getting richer and richer. And here's the thing about rights.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Everyone I know that I care about is gonna have rights. If shit ever gets real, I'll have the money and the liquidity and the Bitcoin or whatever it is I'll need to peace out to Dubai or Tel Aviv or Singapore or wherever I need to go.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Any takeaways from being... That's in Switzerland, right? I am officially done skiing. All I can think about, I get off the lift and all I think about is, this is definitely the run I'm tearing the other ACL. And then going to the hospital, catching pneumonia and dying. And then I wonder, and I think a lot about my funeral. That's just not how I want to go. Pneumonia from the torn ACL from Zermatt.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
If anybody I know becomes the target of some weird right-winger, I can lawyer up like no fucking tomorrow and then move to a country that doesn't have extradition treaties. I just... Money has now bought people rights.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
So when I'm in or rich people are in a beast of the summer partying on yachts and there's people, there's oligarchs from Russia, there's kids from the Gulf, and there's tech bros, everyone gets along and is civil with each other and talks about what a shame it is, but no one's actually really willing to get aggressive with their platform and speak up because here's the bottom line.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Our rights are portable. And for all the moaning, the fact, the unholy alliance here is Trump and along with the Democratic Party has said, even though there's a slow burn towards income inequality and now this escalation towards fascism, wink, wink, I'll make sure the rich are just fine. Guess what?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Jeff Bezos, when you're on your deathbed, you're not going to remember being worth $120 billion or $90 billion. You're going to remember what a fucking infidel you were to the American values that made you worth $120 billion.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I find this domino theory of cowardice amongst the rich is so incredibly disappointing because at the end of the day, they have opted for their wealth and they have the comfort of knowing that rights are a function of wealth. And to a certain extent for them, for the rich, it really doesn't matter what happens in America. And this is the unholy alliance. between our government and the 0.1%.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And unless the 0.1% decide to become class traitors and actually speak up, none of this shit is gonna change. We are going to continue to build another brick in the fascist wall. So I am exceptionally disappointed that the exceptionally wealthy are just giving kind of like symbolic resistance to what is going on here. If they want to hand over America to a very dark side, we are well on our way.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
There needs to be more class traitors, and those class traitors have to be the 0.1%. Because quite frankly, they're the ones with all the power right now. And it is not happening. What is the last thing that's going to run through your head on your deathbed? That I was worth more money than I needed to be or that I stood up for American values?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I think it's a pretty cool way to go. I think skiing is so overrated.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube by the way I absolutely love Vivian too I think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I skipped to the lunch part. One of the wonderful things about European skiing is you'll literally get off a lift and you'll see a plume of smoke and you walk down a hill and you go through this big, you know, this giant wooden door that's out of Game of Thrones. And inside are a bunch of Swiss Germans partying and planning the takeover of Austria. I mean, they're just... Going crazy.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
It's a ton of fun. By the way, it's probably crazier in Aspen now. The ground zero for douchebag ink is this place called Cloud Nine. Have you heard of this place? I've been there, yeah. So basically, it's this place on the mountain, and you don't really eat lunch. There's one sitting that's actual lunch, and then the next sitting is they pass out, no joke, trash bags that you wear as armor...
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I feel as if I need to say to you, as an American, what I should have said to my ex-wife, and that is, I'm sorry I've been such an asshole. The behavior is totally unacceptable, and I'm sorry on behalf of any sane American. And finally, we're saying the most important question. Let's talk about Connor McDavid. Edmonton Oilers. Is that right?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
So let's explain to Ed, because Ed is not much of a man. The Four Nations Hockey Tournament, which was arguably the greatest sports spectacle of the last year. Connor McDavid, in sudden death over time of the Edmonton Oilers, put it in the net for Team Canada. And you've never heard so many Americans root for Canada, I think, in history. Anyways...
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
My serious question now, what's interesting or one of the things that's interesting about America is that our news is 22 minutes of domestic and then eight minutes of international, whereas most nations it's reversed. We don't think much about other nations.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I think the general stereotype we have of Canada is it's basically a nicer, friendlier, maybe a little bit more shit-together version of America. But it strikes me, or my thesis is, that a lot of the problems at ALS are the same problems you have, and sometimes even worse.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Whether it's income inequality, it feels like someone told me that there's literally a half a dozen or a dozen families that control a disproportionate amount of the economy, that housing is just a shitshow. In Canada, and that many of the immigration problems, many of the problems we're struggling with are not just as bad, but worse in Canada.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Can you talk about as an economist what two or three things you think are really ailing Canadian society right now?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And then you buy a nice bottle of champagne and two cheap bottles of champagne for defense. And then they put on crazy music and all these wealthy people with too much money start spraying champagne on each other. And I remember I was there and standing and dancing, which me is shaking my shoulders back and forth to 80s music. Yeah. And our waitress came over.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And somebody, this guy next to me, hit her accidentally kind of in the head. And she buckled over. Oh, no. And, I mean, no, she was fine. But, like, lost control of whatever she was bringing us. And a bunch of champagne spilled on the hot fondue griddle. And this waft of pink champagne went up into her face. And I thought. Oh, God. I thought, this is the Planet of the Apes moment.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Where everyone working behind the counter jumps over, kills all of us. Totally. And then starts traversing down the mountain, gathering everyone that the 0.1% have been abusing for the last 40 years, and it starts the revolution. The revolution starts at cloud nine. It is so... Fucking obnoxious.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I am totally down to party and waste money, but I remember thinking, this is so indulgent and stupid, people spraying champagne on each other.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Just some additional data that Michael referenced. In World War II, Canada entered the war two years before the U.S. and trained over 130,000 Allied airmen. During the Iran hostage crisis, Canada or Canadian diplomats sheltered, hid six American embassy staff and helped orchestrate their escape. And had they been caught doing this, they would have been hanged from cranes.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
They stuck behind in Tehran and took huge risks. After 9-11, Canada launched Operation Yellow Ribbon, accepting 224 diverted flights when U.S. airspace closed, sheltering 33,000 stranded American passengers. Canada, as Michael referenced, fought alongside the U.S. in World Wars I, II, Korea, the Persian Gulf, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and against ISIS.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
It is the largest undefended border in the world, the border between Canada and America, which gives you a sense for how much mutual trust there has been leading up to this point. And there's also really deep people-to-people connection with extensive family ties across borders.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Now is the time to fly. I hope you have plenty of the wherewithal.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
My parents initially immigrated from Glasgow and London, respectively, to Toronto, where they were welcomed with open arms. I tell this story. I was actually conceived in Toronto, born in San Diego. And the only time I've ever seen my dad cry is every year I give him something off his bucket list, and he doesn't choose to hang out with me or his grandkids.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
He wants to go to the Air Canada Center and see the Leafs play the Habs in the opening night of the Toronto Maple Leafs. And at the beginning of the game, a bunch of Scotsmen Scottish Canadian and come out with bagpipes and he just loses his shit. But, you know, Canada and America, it's such a wonderful friendship and alliance.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I trust and hope that you and your countrymen recognize there's a lot of Americans that feel a very deep bond with Canada and that we, I generally believe this is just total nonsense. And again, to my ex-wife and to Canada and I am sorry for this type of behavior. This is unacceptable.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I trust that sooner rather than later, we'll be back to just being great, great siblings in what has been one of the strongest alliances in history. Anyways, that's my TED Talk, Michael.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Scott, your reactions to Mike? I thought he was great. He's infinitely Canadian. He's nice. He's smart. I just think it's so embarrassing that we are pissing on our neighbors and friends and allies. I just don't get it. I just don't. Let's surrender to and cozy up and give Putin a lap dance, but let's insult Canadians. I don't understand what's going on.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I trust that they're, like Michael, they're a little bit more measured and more mature than our current leadership. And I hope this is just an embarrassing kind of moment in history in terms of the relationship. But I don't know. I've thought a lot about, you know, America seems so strange. People say, well, is it time to leave?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I heard of one of my friend's ex-wife is moving to London because she's so freaked out about Trump. And I said, no, this is the time to move back to America and, you know, get in the fight. I mean, I think I've told you this. I'm moving back in 18 months.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Finally, right? Thank God. Thank God. Thank God. The nation, a huge sigh of relief. Yeah, seriously. I shall return. Watch out In-N-Out Burger. Sales are about to go up 12% year on year.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I really do think this is an opportunity and a call for Americans living abroad. If you are worried about the U.S., about what's going on, maybe you support it. But if you don't, as I don't, I think it's a good time to get back to the U.S., not to be worried about leaving, at least not yet. I think it's time to come home and become part of the resistance.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I think Tim Cook is really smart. I think he is saying, OK, for a press release, maybe we spend it, maybe we don't. I don't think Trump cares if he actually spends it or not. But I think what he's trying to do is negotiate some sort of carve out from anything resembling a tariff on Chinese manufactured products where a great deal of Apple products are produced.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I think he said, okay, coordinate with the White House. All they want is a symbolic victory. Call it $500 billion. Maybe it is. Maybe it's already spending we're planning. I see this as a giant fucking yawn. I don't even know if it actually means anything in terms of what they weren't already planning on doing or they're repackaging or they're saying anything.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
This is literally all chip, no salsa.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
If you look at... The big guys, if you look at a Meta, an Alphabet, an Amazon, they're growing somewhere between 10% and 30% a year. Apple is basically flat. I think Apple's total sales this year are low single digits, but they are a profit cash volcano. And that's what the market value is in that.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And right now, their PE ratio is, I believe, as of February 24th, is about 39, which is higher than its 12-month average of 34. And typically, I think its average over the long term is around 19. So they are—the market values them on profits. Now, the danger of that—
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
is that their CapEx as a percentage of their total top-line revenue is actually the lowest in big tech, and it's lower than when IBM was at their peak. So the question is, has Apple got so much top-line revenue that they just manage their CapEx better and are able to find greater returns?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
For example, I think you've got to give it to them, their approach to not going down the spending rabbit hole around AI and just leveraging other people's CapEx and doing something called Apple Intelligence, which was sort of cheap and cheerful. And bad, thus fall. Well, it's better than their mixed reality headset. Yeah, fair enough.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
It'll be interesting to see if their lack of CapEx filter, their competitive set comes back to haunt them. But I own Amazon and Apple are my biggest holdings. I'm actually thinking about trimming my Apple holdings because now it's, I think about, what is it? Maybe 5% or 7% of my total net worth. I'm thinking of taking it down to 3%.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And we've talked about this rotating into non-US stocks or non-US tech. The problem is, is I bought, it's trading at 240. I think I bought it at 11. So it would take a pretty big... This is crazy to hear that, yeah. But I bought it in 1838. And I bought it, I think I bought it in 2011. Anyways, I wonder about Apple. It's trading at a historical high, P, on any metric.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I also wonder if they're... Are they just better at managing their catbacks than everyone else? Or are they eventually, is this going to come back to haunt them in terms of their inability to grow? Yeah, I think that's the big, big question.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Today's number, 202,080 kilometers. That's the length of Canada's coastline, the longest in the world. True story. If you're ever wondering what it means when a young woman, a young attractive woman, is wearing a Canada goose jacket, it means she's one bad decision away from having an OnlyFans. I don't fully get it. Surely she's rich if she's got the Canada goose, huh?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Look, your sons are the only people that you really hope are going to be more successful than you and your daughters. And you can trust them or you think you can trust them. You want to see them successful. You think the whole world underappreciates. You think they're capable of great things. So it's just a natural instinct to want to advantage your sons.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And you know, theoretically, or your daughters, you know, theoretically, that that's probably not good for them, but you just can't help it. And this happens everywhere. The Arnaud kid is, I think, was the head of Ramoa and has now got a big job at LVMH and at some point will probably be the CEO.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
It's no accident that the last several publishers of the New York Times company had the last name Sulzberger. Was Arthur Sulzberger? Would Arthur Sulzberger... Was he a good publisher? Yeah, I think he was. Was there any fucking way he'd be published in the New York Times if his last name wasn't Sulzberger? No. This nepotism infects all sorts of companies.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And private companies, it's a little bit easier to pull off than public companies. But the New York Times company, an incredibly important company, is riddled. I used to go to New York Times board meetings. And I'm not exaggerating. There was a cousin on the board. And his official job was submarine explorer. He had built a submarine to explore the seas. And I said, well, tell me about that.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And he's like, well, I've never actually been in it. I'm like, why? He's like, you know, I'm like, because you wouldn't get in a vessel that you've built. It's obviously, this is stupid. He used to show up to board meetings in a Tommy Bahamas shirt and fall asleep. Every board meeting. Literally Roman Roy. So it's almost like a tax that shareholders pay recognizing that
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
People want their kids to be successful, and also sometimes the kids are outstanding. Herb Allen at Allen & Co. brought in his son, Herb Allen III, and he's outstanding. He's great at what he does. I don't know if he's still running the firm. On a regular basis, you get really good cousins, nephews, whoever, that are outstanding at running the company. This is striking for a couple reasons.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
One, they're youth. It's just unlikely they're the most talented people You can't even pretend this isn't nepotism. But at the end of the day, if he controls the firm, he gets to do this. Now, if their clients and employees start leaving en masse, he'll probably decide to make a change. We also don't know if this is just symbolic where he said to all the key people in the firm, wink, wink.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I just want to keep the governance within the family safe. I'm going to have a succession strategy. I know this seems like bullshit, but you're really in charge of this. You're really in charge of this. I don't know what's going on internally, but this happens more often than you think.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And generally the only arbiter or the only governor, I mean, keep in mind, we have nations where they have royalty, where, okay, you're the king because you're the son of this person. But what happened to royalty? Yeah.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I don't get it either, but for some reason it made me smile. Maybe it doesn't matter at all. I made that one up. Yeah, I can tell. Doesn't that make sense though? When you see a hot girl in the Canada's goose jacket, there's like a reasonable chance. Surely you've owned a goose. Oh, I own several geese. And now I'm Montclair because I'm the rich douchebag. I went, I literally, I hit a new low.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
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Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
But in order to maintain that asset base, his costs will go up. Because for every car they sell, they're going to have to replace it with a higher-priced car. I guess the notion is that because cars are more expensive, more people will rent than own.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
And I think the countervailing force of a massive decline in tourism, which I would imagine makes up a large portion of their rental market, I think that negative force... will be greater than the increase in the value of their current fleet. So I don't, to me, I think this is really creative.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
And Bill has such a strong brand in the industry that when he puts out a tweet, the stock literally doubled in value. But this company
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
But the company has $6 billion in debt with a market cap of around $3 billion, including a half a billion in junk bonds. They lost $3 billion last year. In sum, I think Hertz is just in a shitty business.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Today's number 70. That's the percentage of people who say they're polite to AI models when interacting with them. Ed, which vegetable has the worst manners? What? The rutabaga. That's terrible.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
It reminds me, there's been an activist play about 10 times at a company called Macy's, and the play was always the same, and that is the underlying real estate is worth more than the company. And they did the analysis and they were right in that the stock was trading at a market cap or an enterprise value of 2 billion and they own 3 billion in real estate. So, okay, the company's undervalued.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
The problem is it's like telling someone, all right, your heart and your lungs are worth millions of dollars. And it's like, well, okay, I'm kind of fond of my heart and lungs. And that was no CEO was willing to harvest the organs of Macy's. They weren't willing to shut down Macy's and sell the real estate. So, okay, great. Your cars just went up in value 10%. What does that mean for Ernst?
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
How do you monetize? How do you harvest that organ? Because Hertz isn't going to just sell its fleet tomorrow. They like to believe they're in the business of running cars. And what you're going to find here... And the thing that's going to drive the stock price over the medium and the long term, in the short term, it's Bill Ackman's brand in this interpretive dance.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
But over the medium term, and even the kind of extended short term, the thing that's going to dictate this company's stock price, unless it becomes a meme stock, which is possible, but I don't think it will... is the growth or decline of the business. And the revenues fell 3% last year, and they're probably going to fall more than that this year.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
It's a highly levered business and a shitty business that's in structural decline because of ride hailing and then has the one-two punch of a cyclical kick in the nuts or an exogenous kick in the nuts from a decline in tourism. So Interesting to look at, you know, fun. Like, who the fuck is the rich parent that put their kids through modern dance and let them do this with their life? Anyways.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Agreed. He's got a standing ovation because everyone's looking at each other going, wait, that was great, right? I'm cool if I clap for whatever I just saw on stage, right? This is unique and different. It's art.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
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Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
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Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
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Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
The rutabaga? Yeah, I got it. Rutabaga. Rutabaga. Welcome to Prop G Markets, Ed. Welcome to Prop G Markets today. We're speaking with Ryan Peterson, the founder and CEO of Flexport. Now, there's a real name for a real man. First, Ed, it's time for Ruta Banter.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
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Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
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Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
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Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
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Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
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Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Well, it's only like my 11th fucking joy bagging on its podcast today. I don't know where, are you raging? Wait, Jess, who am I? Listen, you openly lesbian. Oh, wait, that's Kara. Nevermind. I don't know where I am. What are you up to?
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
That's right. That's right. Say more. What does that mean?
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
What do you hear from trying to describe the vibe you're getting from these big, medium, and small retailers. I mean, Walmart and Target, this affects all the way down to the little guys. Do you think a few of them go out of business, or is this really kind of a meteor that could take thousands of these guys off the table, if you will?
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
But aren't you also saying China will likely not back down because they probably have done the math?
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Prof G. Paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokered services for U.S. listed registered securities, options, and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. I should also disclose I am an investor in public.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
You're sort of the helm of the bobsled in terms of visibility into the supply chain. It seems like a lot of just the perception of us as a reliable partner is being eroded. How do you see the supply chain reconfiguring?
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Once, wherever the tariffs level out, and I realize that that's a big open-ended question, but how do you see, generally speaking, the way the world gets sources, manufacturers, and distributes products? You obviously have to allocate capital as a CEO. What is Flexport?
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Where do you see opportunities, and how are you reallocating capital around which countries, which supply routes you're going to overinvest in and divest from?
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
What's the last award you won? Seriously, what's the last recognition or award you won?
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Ancient Greek festivals.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
You know, like most popular, most handsome.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Memo to self, mandatory six-day work week. Okay, good. It'd be good for us. Yeah. So let's take tariffs off the table. Pre-tariff, if you look at countries as stocks or asset classes and you get to see who's doing a great job in terms of partnerships and manufacturing. prowess. What countries would you go long and what countries would you go short?
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
That was funny when I was young.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
The joy got starched for my life. I don't know, sort of the bitter sadness of everyday drudgery just drove all joy from my soul. But no, I'm still, I still got it. I think you do. Enough of this shit. Get to the headlines. Now is the time to cry. I hope you have plenty of the wherewithal.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
So just on the topic of people, Toby Lutke from Shopify made headlines when he said, you can't have a job hire unless you can prove that AI can do it. Curious as the CEO of a logistics and supply chain company, What role does AI play in your mind and what type of level of investment? How do you think it impacts your current hiring or kind of human capital strategy?
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Last question for me. Timu and Shien, these incredible supply chain monsters. Curious what you think about those two companies and how this shakes out and what you think the prospects for those two firms are.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Doesn't their cost advantage broaden? Because if they're selling a garment in for $10 versus $60 from Ralph Lauren, okay, they go to $24, but Ralph Lauren goes to $150.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Go Bears! I didn't know that. Oh yeah, go Bears. Nice. Enough of your bullshit, Edward. Were you raised in California?
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
And did you stick in the Bay Area?
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Oh, that's great. Love to hear that. Please continue it.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Ryan, you've got this great... I think you actually should command the space you occupy. You have this kind of firebrand... I don't know, reputation as this sort of maverick entrepreneur who's kind of shoots first and ask questions later. I think you're just the voice that small business needs.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Yeah, well, I think you do. Keep on keeping on, my brother. I love seeing stuff from you. And I think you're, I don't know, I think you're bold. And I love what you said that founders aren't as worried about being fired. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Thanks very much for your time. Thanks, Ryan.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
or sanity to deal with what ryan just told us what i would say is that well one you can only control what you can control and that is all right go to the bank see if you can get an increase in credit slow down the shipments um you know think about how you save money you know does it involve layoffs to try and extend your runway there's some just very hard decisions you have to make you know your business better than me but you can control only what you can control
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
The other thing I would keep in mind that has always played out for me, not only in business, but in life, is that nothing's ever as good or as bad as it seems. And then generally speaking, you look back on situations like this and go, okay, it wasn't as bad as I thought. Because it could—I do think what Ryan was saying, that they're going to blink and the tariffs could be off.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
And also, even imagining the worst-case scenario, I remember when a variety of things, moons lined up in a very negative way when I was— Had done a proxy fight, taking control of the board, a red envelope, came back in like MacArthur returning to the Philippines. And then we had the great financial recession.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Our credit line got pulled and we had a software glitch and sent out 10,000 gifts to the wrong address. And we went from a stock of $7 to chapter 11 in like two weeks. And I was just devastated. I lost everything. And just such an emotional investment. I'd been in the company 10 years.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
And I ended up, strangely, a year later, or six months later, some hedge funds called me and said, we've been watching the proxy fight at Red Envelope, and you're crazy. I'm like, well, thanks for that. But they said, but you are kind of crazy. Would you be interested in us? We have some stock in some companies that we think are underperforming.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Would you be interested if we bought some more stock? Would you be interested in co-investing and getting involved in an activist play with us? I would have never thought that Red Envelope going out of business after I had waged this public war against the board – would result in opportunities for me. In a million years, I could have never thought that. So one, control what you can control.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Two, recognize that whatever you're feeling right now, if it's bad, it's probably not as bad as what you're feeling. And also sometimes when things are really good, it's probably the situation isn't as good as you think it is. And also, you just don't know what kind of opportunities might open up, even if the worst thing possible happens. You just don't know.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
But again, nothing's ever as good or as bad as it seems.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
The idea of the German bonds becoming an alternative to the global dominant system of U.S. treasuries is sort of interesting. It's a tiny market compared to the U.S. treasury market at $3 trillion compared to $30 trillion for U.S., limiting its replacement potential. And they've also historically suffered from scarcity and sub-zero yields, which is really interesting.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
You have to pay them to hold on to boons as a store of value. But increased issuance post-German stimulus is easing those constraints.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
The question is how permanent or structural these shifts, that even if the markets recover, even if there's a different approach to governments or they come out and say, no, the Fed is independent, slowly but surely over time, big, big institutions have increased their allocation.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
They each have sort of a certain percentage that they put into asset classes, and they have models such that they can justify higher prices, whereas my favorite is the person running all the Nevada companies. pension phones is one guy who makes a reasonable living in a bad office who just invests in ETFs from Vanguard, and he's outperformed the 700 people working on Harvard's endowment.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
But they try to figure out risk models, and they have asset allocation. All right, we're going to put X percent in venture, X percent in growth equity. And consistently, I think over the last 20 or 30 years, they've increased their allocation to private equity because that's been an asset class that has overperformed.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
And I wonder how many of institutions are just going to restructure their allocation in terms of percentage away from the amount of capital they allocate to the U.S. market. So I think this is structural.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
On Ramp, expenses are faster than ever. Just submit them with a text. Switch your business to Ramp.com.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
China's probably said, why on earth are we strengthening relationships with the U.S. who treats us poorly? Let's take some of our capital and use that to strengthen relationships with other nations. Chinese investments in FTSE 100 companies have surged, reaching nearly $90 billion, a 40% jump from 2022. So when we talk about a re-rating of American stocks down from a P of 28 to
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Germany again, 22%, Japan 18%, China 14%. Well, what actually happens there, the mechanics of that are that people sell U.S. stocks and buy stocks in Japan, Germany, or China. And I think you're saying that. And that is if China—and they're actually not the largest U.S. investor, but they're a significant enough investor—
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
Where if they pull money out and start putting it into other markets, again, that re-rating begins to happen. This has more impact, actually, on private market valuations. And some people would argue, well, that ultimately impacts public company valuations.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
But when there's less money for these private equity companies, what that means is that entrepreneurs looking to sell their business have fewer bidders, and the valuations start to come down. And what's also interesting is I bet they're clearly targeting the 8 or 12 people in the economy that have a great deal of influence over Trump.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
So, again, this is just another point of light around why we're going to see this re-rating. And it's small, but does it carry a trend? Because you've got to think that CIC is one of those sovereigns everyone talks about, Mubalaba, PIF, and I think they're— This is the Chinese Sovereign Wealth Fund. I think people take their actions very seriously. They're very smart. They're very strategic.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
They're very long-term. So it's more of a branding and a headline, I think, risk than it is the actual capital because relative to other nations, it's less capital than you'd think. But this might be, again, this just sends another signal that the U.S. is no longer the safe haven for capital, that there's a capital flight, which again creates that re-rating down.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
The best strategy for career success is, I think, is relationships because you want to be put in a room of opportunities even when you're not physically present. I think what Trump has done is that Trump has put America and our markets and our assets in a room full of hostilities. And that is, we just don't know who's going to stab us and where or what they're going to do.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
But there are some very bright people all over the world with a lot of capital are trying to figure out, quite frankly, how to punch back.
Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs — ft. Ryan Petersen
says is a response in large part to the tariffs i appreciate the art in it it's like when you see interpretive dance you think wow or modern art you think wow that's really creative and then kind of 10 minutes in you're like this makes no fucking sense that's really good analogy this is interpretive dance to decide that okay so he has an asset base that's gone up in value or hertz has an asset base that's gone up in value
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Support for this show comes from Public.com. If you're serious about investing, you need to know about Public.com. That's where you can invest in everything, stocks, options, bonds, and more. And even under 6% or higher yield that you can lock in with a bond account. Visit Public.com slash PropG and get up to $10,000 when you transfer your old portfolio. That's Public.com slash PropG.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
So, Tan was on the board, and he resigned from the board after a dispute. with then-CEO Gelsinger about layoffs. This stuff never gets out into the public arena. I've had pretty serious fights with other board members and CEOs.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
The fact that it escaped the room, that Tan had left the board over a disagreement about how many people to lay off at a place like Intel, where everyone's like playing golf at Woodside Country Club together. I mean, that means it was really heated and that Tan was pissed off. And then what's even more interesting is, is the board called him back and said, hmm, you were right.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Today's number 40. That's the percentage of college basketball fans who've admitted they've called in sick to watch a March Madness game. True story. When I worked at Morgan Stanley, I called in sick and my boss said, you don't sound sick. And I said, well, I've been fucking my pet rabbit all day. Does that sound sick enough for you?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Do you want to come be the CEO? So this is really, this is like high-dudgeon boardroom drama. When a board member leaves, he's so pissed off at the CEO, and then the board fires that CEO and calls him and says, come back as the CEO.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And this is a company that I think the markets say there's a lot of potential here, a lot of IP, a lot of brand, a lot of distribution, probably a lot of fantastic human capital, and that it has arguably been one of the worst managed companies over the last two or three decades, given the space it's in.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And evidence of that is the new CEO coming in and acting like he's aggressive, he's bold, he's going to shake shit up. The stock's up 25% in the last few weeks. He's already added... $20 billion or $25 billion in market cap just by virtue of this aggressive CEO who believes he has a vision. He's also pulling a Klarna and mentioning AI a bunch.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
He is clearly, the markets are happy about change, disruption, and for God's sakes, do something. There's real assets here. So it'll be interesting to see what he does, but he's very successful. He served as He was the CEO of Cadence Design Systems, and the company was up 33x while he was there.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And he's already sort of paid for his salary several, you know, exponentially just by virtue of the market is excited. Maybe not as much about him, but more specifically, just the prospect of serious, serious change. Your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
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Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
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Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
This is the part of the ad where I'm supposed to talk about my personal experience. I have used Z Biotics and I have found that the next morning I feel less bad. I'm also trying to cut down my alcohol consumption because obviously that's the best thing to do to feel less bad the next morning. But I'm also using Z. ZBiotics.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Go to ZBiotics.com slash ProfG to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use ProfG at checkout. ZBiotics is backed with 100% money guarantee, so if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to ZBiotics.com slash ProfG and use the code ProfG at checkout for 15% off. Support for the show comes from public.com. All right.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And if you're serious about investing, you need to know about public.com. That's where you can invest in everything, stocks, options, bonds, and more. They even offer some of the highest yields in the industry, including the bond account, 6% or higher yield that remains locked in even if the Fed cuts rates. Thank you. Thank you so much for having me. Member FINRA and SIPC.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Welcome to Prop G Markets. Today, that's right, first job. Can you imagine what a great employer I was? Today, we're speaking with Lynn Alden, independent analyst and the author of Broken Money. But first, it's time for banter. Ed, did you have a pet rabbit? No, I did not have a pet rabbit.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. I should also disclose I am an investor in public.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And I've told you about that. The dog you didn't like.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Okay, you remember. Yeah, you're the first person I've ever met. It's like, yeah, I wasn't a big fan of my dog.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Yeah. Correct. I call that a Tuesday night.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Len, it was good to see you. One of our big themes for 25 was that the rivers would reverse, that the constant flow of capital into U.S., specifically U.S. growth, would not only stop, but that it would reverse. And we're starting to see some signs of this. Do you think this is a temporary blip or is this structural where we might go into a 10 or 15 year period of underperformance of U.S.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
markets relative to non-U.S. markets. Do you see this as a significant turning point or something that, you know, kind of wait and see?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Prof G. Paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokered services for U.S. listed registered securities, options, and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. I should also disclose I am an investor in public.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
I did see that thread and people loved it.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
I've always thought a decent, a non-zero probability is my end is very similar to Kung Fu star Keith Carradine. There were several prostitutes involved in Thailand. And I thought, you know, if you're going to go, go out with all guns blazing. Did you ever see Kung Fu?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Then a white guy playing like a monk who could kick the shit out of like, it was kind of politically incorrect, but very kind of politically correct at the same time. And then next half hour, I'd be like, okay, Tonto, like smell the ground for other savages.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And then, and then you know what I'd watch? Let's go through. I mean, it would be impossible for me not to be like pretty fucked up based on the steady diet of media. I watched two hours a day, four episodes of I Dream of Jeannie. We were one of the first communities in Orange County to get cable TV and they had Jeannie on four times a day. I watched all four of them.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
So I grew up, my formative years were, yes, master, or go to your bottle, Jeannie. Anyways, I'm like fucking Alan Alda. I've come a long way. Ed, what did you grow up on?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
That just means you should be abusing drugs. Claire, come in here. What did you grow up on?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Did you watch Partridge Family? Of course. Yeah, that was pretty good. My favorite thing about Brady Bunch was that Greg was fucking the mom, Florence Henderson. And the dad was closeted and died of AIDS. Obviously very tragic. The Brady Bunch was not what it appeared to be. It was not what it appeared to be. God, get me out of this. How do I get out of this? How do I get out of this? GDP, AI.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
All right, let's get to the headlines, Ed.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
So I agree with you. I'm not a fan of the BNPL space. And basically it's sort of the way it works is you can walk up to the till at a retailer and they say, would you like to buy $300 worth of stuff? And you get automatic credit right now. And the retailers love it because it inspires additional basket size on the spot.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And it's sort of tapping into young people's—and I'd be curious what the numbers here are—offering them cheap and easy credit, which sometimes leads people to bad places. Having said that, you can't infantilize people. They get to make their own decisions. But it's yet another kind of easy credit way of juicing retailer sales.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
I would argue these guys seem to be really solid operators, and that is they went from a loss of a quarter of a billion dollars in 2023 to a $21 million profit last year. And they claim, and some of this is marketing, but some of it's also probably real, that they've really embraced AI.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And that from 2022 to 2024, Klarna cut sales and marketing costs by 38%, R&D costs by 9.5%, and customer service costs by 29%. So, you know, cutting your customer service costs by a third is real. Meanwhile, its revenue has surged 48%. So their story is a compelling story. We're using technology and management discipline and AI to decrease costs,
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
while not losing growth, which results in a massive increase to the bottom line. There's been some analysis that says the savings from AI have been overstated, but this is smart from an IR standpoint. $15 billion feels reasonable to me.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
I don't know if they're growing faster than the other guys, but I would bet this actually gets a pretty warm reception in the marketplace because they're very good at using the term AI. They used... They said AI or mentioned AI 142 times in their prospectus.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Their strategy from a comms perspective, trying to create a Klarna as synonymous with AI, is both smart and effective, and I think they'll get a nice pop here. What's also interesting is they decided to list in the U.S., and it's really interesting, the umbrella brand of U.S. listing is
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
increases your market cap by the analysis that the team brought together, that the average company listing in the U.S. trades at a multiple of 24 versus 18 in the U.K. Now, you might argue, well, there's more growth companies and they deserve a higher valuation, but some of it is definitely the halo or the brand halo. of going public on a U.S.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
exchange, which tends to attract the best companies globally. And they've decided to opt for a listing on the NYSE. I thought that was kind of interesting. Your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Basically, Jonathan Cantor and Lena Conner are no longer there to threaten. I mean, if they get a good—if they're going to go public and they think they're going to get a great valuation and there's a chance that they'll go through six or nine months or 12 months of headache trying to battle the DOJ or the FTC and maybe end up with a negative decision— Let's go public.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
But if it's Google showing up and saying, why would you even risk it? We're back. We're going to close in 30 days. The Trump administration is very friendly. They've fired the FTC and DOJ people. We have pretty decent certainty of close. and we'll up our price. Why take the risk and why put up with earnings calls?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And every senior manager here is about to be worth a shit ton of money, and they don't have to digest their stomach and go on CNBC and put up with pesky analysts. So this was Trump, and it sounds like they increased the valuation, and boom, we're off to the races. I think they're smart to do this. I mean, if you can get... Basically, a public filing is a few things.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
One, it's a disclosure of certain data, but it can also serve as basically a... kind of a whistle or what I would call speak now, forever hold your peace to any company trying to acquire them. Because once a company is public, acquiring it is really difficult. And you got to get shareholder approval. And there's a media class action suit saying you're buying us for too little.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And there's all sorts of SEC issues around acquiring a public company. It's pretty clean and pretty easy to acquire a private company as long as the FTC and the DOJ aren't going to get in the way. So what changed here? Trump changed.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
Let's move on to this third headline here, which is these big bank earnings. We had earnings from JP Morgan and Bank of America, all the big banks. And just by the numbers here, it was a great quarter. for the banks. JP Morgan beat on estimates. Their profits rose 9%. Bank of America also beat. Profits up 11%. Goldman Sachs beat. Profits up 15%. Citigroup beat up 21%. Morgan Stanley beat.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
Profits up 26%. I mean, a huge, huge quarter, incredible quarter for these banks. And As usual, they're all kind of telling the same story here. And this is generally what we see in banking. It's a very cyclical business. Whatever's going right or wrong at J.P. Morgan is usually the same thing that's going right or wrong at Bank of America. Last year, it was this rise in net interest income.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
The year before that, it was this downturn in investment banking, etc., etc. So what is the theme today? Well, it's actually something we predicted, and that is that trading revenues, the money that these banks make from facilitating and executing stock trades, that business is exploding. It was a record quarter for most of these banks. For Morgan Stanley, the trading revenue was up 45%.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
And the reason this is happening is volatility. The administration is causing chaos in the markets, which is causing investors to reshuffle their portfolios. They're buying and they're selling. And the banks are profiting off of that. And this is what I said way back at South by Southwest. The people who are being rewarded here are not the value investors.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
It's not the people who are investing long term into the real economy in America. In fact, they're getting burned. The people who are winning in the stock market are the traders, the gamblers, the speculators. It's basically the people who want to make a quick buck off of volatility. Scott, your reactions to what we're seeing from the big banks?
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
That's another argument for why today, as a bank, you have to be massively diversified in terms of your businesses, which is why JP Morgan has been such an outperformer. You know, when we see a downturn in M&A, they have a huge trading desk and they can generate and make up for it in times of volatility, like we're seeing today, and they make the money off of the trading.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
And then, you know, in calmer times, they'll make their money off of the interest. So the banks... will be fine, especially the larger, more diversified banks. And in this case, the banks are winning. But I just do want to just re-navigate us to what Trump's promises were and also to whom those promises were made.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
This was all supposed to be a win for regular people, for small, medium-sized businesses, for Main Street, for 401k holders. And again, what we're seeing here with these bank earnings, the dynamic we're seeing is actually the reverse. The winners here are the traders themselves. on Wall Street.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
The winners here are the people who are clients of these big banks who can afford to give them a call and take advantage of all of those exotic instruments that you just talked about that generate that higher margin. The losers here are regular investors on Main Street, the people who get no benefit from markets going up and down and up and down and up again.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
You know, there's no benefit from having a volatile market if you're a long-term investor who simply has their assets in a 401k and it's invested in the S&P. At first, it looked like Trump was just kicking both Wall Street and Main Street in the stomach. What we're seeing over the past week is that he is bailing out or figuring out a way to make his rich friends happier than they were before.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
But meanwhile, everyone else, all the regular people, they're going to get burned. And just one interesting note, Goldman, on their earnings, they didn't mention the tariffs once. They didn't say the word tariff a single time. I think they probably want to position themselves as calm and unfazed by what's happening.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
But I think you have to assume that they probably are, to an extent, also actually a little bit unfazed by what's happening. Because I think they have this backstop that regular people don't have, which is that volatility can be a boon for them in the form of trading revenues. And that's what we saw this last quarter.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
We'll be right back after the break for our conversation with William Cohen. If you're enjoying the show so far, be sure to give the Profiteer Markets feed a follow wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back. Here's our conversation with William Cohen, New York Times bestselling author and founding partner of Puck. Bill, thanks for coming on.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
So we talk a lot about the stock market. I think everyone talks a lot about the stock market, especially on this show. We talk a lot less about the bond market, which despite being much larger in terms of just asset size, I think is quite misunderstood compared to the stock market. So we wanted to have you on today to to talk to us about bonds.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
You've been writing a lot about the bond market in the past couple weeks. What we saw last week was a fluctuation in yields. We saw this explosion in the yield on the 10-year, and this was the thing that everyone was very concerned about.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
So give us an explainer on what happened to the yield on the 10-year, what happened to treasury yields in general last week, why it's important, and why everyone is so concerned about this.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
Is Trump there? I know he was there last weekend.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
Apparently, it's ruined that town, the traffic. As soon as he arrives, the traffic just gets unbelievable.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
While that was all happening, we're describing confidence being shaken. I was watching CNBC, I was glued to the TV, and everyone was talking about the possibility of a credit crisis or a credit crunch. That's sort of the endgame, it sounds like. You know, if yields explode, then it could trigger this credit crisis. Explain to us what actually is... A credit crisis. What does that look like?
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
What does it mean on a technical level? And why would it be so bad for our economy?
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
I can't tell if this is going to be a question or a comment.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
Probably something you said. So you've been pretty outspoken about your dislike of Bobby Kennedy, right?
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
You know, you talk about the idea that what we're seeing in the surge in these yields is a result of an action from the Chinese government, maybe the Japanese government, to fuck with us, as you said. And I feel like these are the two options here.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
It's either this one-off event-driven situation where the Chinese government has said, hey, we're going to dump our treasuries today just to remind you that you can't fuck with us. or it is a larger and more structural change where the entire world is turning away from the US debt markets, away from US treasuries, much like they're turning away from the US stock market.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
And in that case, what we could see is higher yields for even longer. And I think those are two very different paths, right? In one case, the yield spikes up, and then it comes back down. In the other case, it continues to slide up and up and up. One is more of a one-off event, and the other is a structural change that is going to last for a long time.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
I'm wondering, in your view, which path you consider to be more likely. Is this just premature trying to intervene with Donald Trump, or is this a structural change and the world is turning away from U.S. debt?
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
Okay, let's get to the headlines. But before we do that, I just want to remind everyone, today is the last day to vote for Profiteer Markets in the Webby Awards. So please vote for us. Go to vote.webbyawards.com, type in Profiteer Markets, click business, really holding your hand here, and then vote for Profiteer Markets, please. We really want to win this. Thank you very much.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
The big question is ultimately, okay, then where does all the money go? I think we could reframe it not necessarily in terms of alpha, but just as a basic question. If capital is leaving the U.S. stock market, it's also leaving the U.S. bond market, it's also leaving the U.S. dollar. I mean, we've seen the dollar at a three-year low compared to the euro. Then it has to go somewhere else.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
And I think the question we have to address is where will the money go eventually if that rotation is to fully materialize? Does it go to Europe? Does it go to China or to gold or maybe even to Bitcoin? Maybe to other foreign debt markets? If you had to make a very long-term prediction as to where the money ultimately goes if this rotation materializes, what would you predict?
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
President Trump announced smartphones, computers, and memory chips would be exempt from the latest round of tariffs. That news sent the major indices and tech stocks such as Apple and Nvidia rallying on Monday. Auto stocks also climbed after Trump said he was considering potential tariff exemptions for imported vehicles.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
The dollar fell to a three-year low against the euro, continuing its downward slide since Liberation Day. Investors remain uneasy over the administration's unpredictable approach to trade policy. As JP Morgan Asset Management's chief investment officer puts it, quote, there is now a very good case for the end of American dollar exceptionalism.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
William Cohen is a New York Times bestselling author, financial journalist, former M&A banker, and a founding partner of Puck, where he writes about what's really happening on Wall Street. I love Bill's newsletter. I highly recommend you go subscribe to Puck. It's really informative. And he keeps things spicy, which I appreciate, especially in financial news. Bill, this was a pleasure.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
Thank you so much for joining us.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Mia Saverio is our research lead. Isabella Kinsel is our research associate. Dan Shallan is our intern. Drew Burrows is our technical director. And Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
If you liked what you heard, give us a follow and join us for a fresh take on markets on Monday.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
And finally, Wall Street just had its best quarter ever for trading stocks. Trading revenues at Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan all came in at record highs, helping the banks beat expectations across the board. So, Scott, let's start with these tariff exemptions. Smartphones, computers, memory chips are now exempt from these new tariffs.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
This, of course, benefits the big tech companies. It also, of course, benefits Apple. You called this to a T last week. This has probably been your most on-the-nose prediction so far this year. Let's just quickly listen to your prediction from last week.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
I don't know why I like that one. For some reason, I like that one. I think I like the pun jokes. Yeah, it's cute, right? A little bit of a dad humor twist, yeah. How are you, Ed? What's going on with you? I'm doing very well, Scott. My dad's visiting, so I've been hanging out with him, which has been very nice, yeah.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
What this has also officially revealed is how this tariff policy has now devolved into basically a game of whack-a-mole, where you just selectively roll back the tariffs based on how the market reacts and based on who gives you a phone call. I mean, it is completely on-the-fly policy at this point. The yields go up. And the tariffs come down and the yields go down.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
And he says the tariffs are going to come back up. Now the tech stocks go down and the tech tariffs go down. And now we even see what's happening in the auto market where the auto stocks are hurting. And Trump is saying to the Wall Street Journal that he might make some exemptions for the auto industry and roll back those car tariffs. So
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
I think what we're seeing now is he has officially surrendered to the markets. He has surrendered to Wall Street, to Big Tech, to Tim Cook, to Jensen Huang. They've all got his number now. This idea that he's folding left and right and basically signaling to the markets that he has now become a candle in the wind. I mean, there is no strategy at this point.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
And I think that's a very unique predicament for the markets to digest now, because yes, these big tech companies, they are seizing back control of the narrative. They are getting more favorable conditions. But is it a good thing? Is it a bullish or a bearish signal that the president is now unequivocally bending his knee to the dynamics that are unfolding in the markets. I don't really know.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
We had lunch uptown and we walked around Central Park, which was nice. We're mostly just getting meals together, which is sort of what we like to do. I'll be having lunch with him tomorrow. We're having dinner together on Thursday.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
And I think that's the thing that we're going to have to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks. But there is no doubt that the people who are getting hit hardest here are the small to medium-sized businesses, the very businesses that Trump said he would bring back to life.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
Let's talk about what's happening to the dollar here. Dollar hit a three-year low last week against the euro. We've talked before about how unusual it was that after the tariffs, we saw the stock market go down and the yields on treasuries go up.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
And that's strange because usually when stocks go down as much as they did last week, you see this flight to safety, which means that investors start buying into treasuries, which brings the yield down. And instead, we saw the opposite. Yields went up, which was an indication that the investment community believed that treasuries were not safe.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
And that's very rare and very alarming, as we discussed last week. So what's happening to the dollar right now is the same dynamic, but... to the power of three. Because in the same way that when investors dump stocks, and they usually buy treasuries in the same way that that's the common dynamic. When investors start dumping treasuries, usually what happens is they go and they buy dollars.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
Because for governments and for large institutions, the dollar is generally considered to be the ultimate safety asset, safer than stocks and even safer than treasuries. And we can talk about... gold and we can talk about Bitcoin, but throughout modern history, this has been the dynamic. What we're seeing this week is once again the opposite. The yield is going up and the dollar is going down.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
So investors are dumping their dollars. They are converting into other currencies. They do not consider the dollar to be a safe investment. And so this is a continuation of what we discussed last week. We're now seeing a flight away from the U.S. stock market, away from the U.S. treasury market, and now away from the U.S. dollar.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
So from top to bottom, from stocks and all the way down to dollars, the world is essentially selling America. And the enormous. Because if this continues, if everyone keeps selling their dollars, then we will lose our position as the world's reserve currency.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
And you ask anyone who knows anything about economics, they will tell you our reserve currency status is basically the number one reason our country is as powerful as it is today. And it's been described as the exorbitant privilege. And we can get into why it's so useful. The long and short of it is it makes borrowing a lot easier and a
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
If we lose that, and now people are beginning to talk about that. You saw that quote from the chief investment officer of JP Morgan, this could be the end of American dollar exceptionalism. If we lose that, then America is really in trouble. We're not there yet, but I just want to explain that, you know, this is the direction we're seeing.
Prof G Markets
Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
This is the conversation that investors are beginning to have. And yes, it is on the table.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Support for the show comes from Public.com. If you're serious about investing, you need to know about Public.com. That's where you can invest in everything, stocks, options, bonds, and more. And even under 6% or higher yield that you can lock in with a bond account. Visit Public.com slash PropG and get up to $10,000 when you transfer your old portfolio. That's Public.com slash PropG.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Today's number, 7%. That's the expected year-over-year decline in tourism to the U.S. in 2025. True story, Ed. I was in Paris and saw a mime and he began masturbating. Later, I heard that he was arrested, but he came quietly. Woo! I like that one. It's okay. Just okay?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
So the question is, what is the point of differentiation? And the point of differentiation has to do with perishability or kind of real-time versus legacy. And that is, if you think about ChatGPT, it's a generalist platform for content creation, writing code, producing visuals, whereas perplexity as real-time web search.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Because it's funny you say that, because my brand perception is when I say, can please distill and give me a sense for if there are winners and losers in the proposed UK trade agreement, I think of perplexity, because I assume it's going to have more up-to-date information, and you're saying that's not accurate.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Look, I was a hater and I like to think I've evolved as a human and I'm open to learning. I think Coinbase, consumers have decided this is for them a legitimate asset class and they get to decide that. I do think the lack of regulation here is somewhat frightening that on April the 9th, just a few weeks after Trump launched his Trump coin,
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
They decided to shut down the unit of the Department of Justice investigating crypto fraud. So it's a bit of the Wild West. To be in the S&P 500, the S&P 500 has a committee that selects companies based on a blend of quantitative and qualitative judgment.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
And you're supposed to have at least a market cap of 21 billion, a lot of liquidity, a public float of greater than 50% shares available to the public. You're supposed to be profitable. And I do think that the S&P, it's a really interesting construct, the synthetic grouping, if you will, because it essentially says we're going to do a lot of diligence on what are the best American companies.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
And then index funds can come into it. And there's something sort of simple and magical, and that is they kick out a company like Discover and say, you're no longer one of the best 500 companies.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
But yes. They got acquired by Capital One. Is that right?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Yeah. So it's sort of when you invest in an S&P index fund, you're not only getting diversification, but what you're getting is... And you're benefiting from this committee's attempt to be the arbiter of what, in fact, are the best companies.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
So when you buy an S&P company, the natural assumption is you are getting companies that are not only great companies, but quite frankly, they're still either maintaining their greatness or on the upswing. And then they kick out companies, which I really like. So this is a big deal.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
This is a – when you're – especially this kind of – to a certain extent, this fairly unfairly legitimizes, in my view, the asset class. When was it they announced ETFs or JP Morgan or some – BlackRock last year. So this is yet another kind of signal of them legitimizing it. Now, at the same time, this could create – be inflating the bubble even more.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
I mean, if this shit does fall and become the ultimate Ponzi scheme where there's no underlying cash flows to justify any of this shit or no real asset, it just means more retail investors are going to get hurt because the assumption is that if it's an S&P company, there must be some credibility to what they're doing. So I'm lukewarm on this. I don't know how to feel about this. Ed, your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Oh, my God. It's getting so bad here.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
I'm pretty staunchly cold on this. I think this is really bad. I love that the young guy hates crypto. Who would have thought that? Who would have thought that?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Oh, bite your tongue. Bite your tongue. Maybe I should, I probably should go to like the cleaner ones. Ed, how are you? What did we do yesterday, Ed?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
I think you're the problem of the Democratic Party right now, and that is you're more interested in acquiring social status or a political orthodoxy than increasing the material or emotional well-being of Americans. Do you think that... Are you still worried about every American owning fossil fuels? No. That's a real business that has real value in the real world.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Are you cool with tobacco companies being in the S&P?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Actual value. So your issue here is that there's no underlying...
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Yeah, it was kind of strange. So first off, just some tips. When I was your age, I was uncomfortable with that sort of stuff because let's be honest, you're a total whore and you feel like you should shower afterwards. So basically it was a giant tech company and they had this enormous, it looked like a taco truck, but it's actually to demonstrate the product. There's probably 40 people there.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
That's a good point. I respect the fact that when you go to parties, you're like the 26-year-old that doesn't like crypto. Not the guy who sucks. No one knows what to make of you. You might as well start singing show tunes.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
I like what you're saying because I find that I'm a little bit taken in by... You know what it is? I think that people my age, and because I desperately want to reach young men, and I'm going through a midlife crisis, so I want to feel younger than I am, that I try to be a little bit hipper and younger. I mean, look at me. I'm dressed like an aging skateboarder right now.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
I look fucking ridiculous. But I think a lot of people want to be seen as younger and hipper, and so they embrace crypto because it makes them feel young.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Let me put it this way. If this shit ends really badly, I think a lot of us are going to have our head in our hands and go, well, of course it did. Of course it did. Which again, feels so 2008 to me. And most importantly, this whole conversation has inspired my favorite line from a song in the aughts, and that is, I'm so 2008, you're so 2000 late. I love that line.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
That's Boom Boom Pow. If it's not Tom Petty or Tom Petty, I don't care what it is.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
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Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
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Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
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Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
And I could tell that you're not used to that. Mm-hmm. When you get to my age, you're literally willing to like whore out your ass. I mean, you're just like, oh, there's money involved? Sure. And I could tell you're sort of like, this doesn't feel right. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
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Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Alice, where does this podcast find you?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
That's fun. Yeah, I've heard. Unfortunately, I leave just in time for the nine days of nice weather in London. I know. So let's bust right into it. I'm just curious to give us sort of the state of play
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
In China, on the ground, the citizens, businesses, and government officials in their response to the trade war and tariffs, and what is the general vibe, if you will, in their response and perception of what is going on?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Well, it's just to that point, didn't Trump blink? I mean, at the end of the day, didn't she basically say, bitch, I'm on top, for lack of a better term, and win?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Prof G. Paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokered services for U.S. listed registered securities, options, and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. I should also disclose I am an investor in public.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Yeah, it reminds me of the time I was in Paris and I was staring at the Eiffel Tower with my partner. And I'm like, this is the third time we've been here and they still haven't found oil. Get it? As if it's an oil... Oh my God, Ed.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
All right, get to the headlines. I'm done. Get to the headlines.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
My sense is, I mean, it's pretty clear what my bias is. I'm not an enormous fan of the current U.S. president. But when I have, I've spoken to some, I have some data here. I've spoken to, or anecdotal evidence, I've spoken to some European companies who are contemplating working with not only Chinese companies, but divisions of these Chinese companies, including their cloud units.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
And working with these units that they would have never considered before. So distinctive how this trade war calms down. Isn't this just an enormous opportunity and gift for Chinese companies who are now getting meetings they otherwise wouldn't have had the opportunity to get in Europe and Latin America?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
And just moving to the broader Chinese economy, there were reports that felt legitimate that China, this came, the threat of a trade war came at a terrible time for China. China has some real structural economic issues. Distinct to the tariff war, talk about the state of the Chinese economy right now.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
My sense is that China, even before this tariff or trade war, was divesting away from the U.S. I believe the percentage of their exports had fallen from 24 percent to 17. Is that a concerted strategy that we just they're not good partners and we need to divest away from the United States? Is that is it is it? Which I think is a terrible thing.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
I think the less inextricably linked we are, the more likely we are to declare war on each other or take bigger risks with each other. But could we see that 17% number drop to single digits in the next few years?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Coming out of this war, we tend to talk about who loses or gains more. And I think a lot of people are coming to the conclusion that over the medium and the long term, China is probably going to get the better of the deal. But distinctive what's good or bad for the U.S. or China with respect to this tariff war, who do you think are the other big winners and losers?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
It feels like Europe will be a big winner because— It seems like the Chinese are excited or ambitious to establish better relations with them.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
But are there other nations in Southeast Asia that vis-a-vis this trade washing, or I think that's the term you used, are just sort of unnatural winners here, are going to do really well, like trade off of selling bullets to the warring parties, so to speak?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
So Alice is the Chinese analyst for Green Mantle and advises people at the highest level around their investments and their strategies. I've been actively looking at European and Chinese stocks, and I'm absolutely fascinated with BYD. I just can't, you know, I see these TikToks of every single, you know, I see the performance of a car that seems to be superior to cars that cost four times more.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
I'm curious what you think of BYD, what it says about Chinese manufacturing, if it has the same. Talk about the BYD phenomena. What do people locally think of the brand? And what does it say about the state of kind of Chinese manufacturing right now? And I'm fascinated with this company. I would love to get any color you might have on it.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Alice, just one quick thing. I think it's really important to point out that we discovered you. We discovered you.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Where I'm headed with this is when Ed needs a job and Scott needs help finding a nursing home. Remember, we discovered Alice Han. Literally, your views. We have these like old white guys with all these credentials on the pod. They get like 15,000 views. And Alice Han comes on and you get 200,000 views.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
It's the norm. Yeah. Anyways, congrats on all your success. And thanks for your great work on this show.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
The market is essentially saying what every foreign leader is saying, and that is with respect to the president, you are not serious people.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
a most favored nation status where he claimed that all our drugs would have the lowest price or match the lowest price of any price around the world would have absolutely not decimated, but substantially hit the profits of pharmaceutical firms who have been able to weaponize. They've recognized the ultimate business model in America in terms of return on investment isn't investing in people.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
It isn't investing in AI. It's investing in our whores that we call elected representatives. Because the disappointing thing about our elected representatives is not that they're whores, it's that they're such cheap whores.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
And when Cigna or Aetna or Pfizer give a few million dollars to different people, they can figure out laws that make it such that we have to pay eight times for Ozempic and Humira. what other nations pay for these pharmaceuticals, despite the fact that we invent, manufacture, and distribute the majority of these drugs.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
We're number one in terms of IP for pharmaceutical development, but we have figured out a way, or these companies have figured out a way, given Citizens United and the fact that you can buy Elected representatives, you can buy lawmakers a way to charge American consumers more. And then you have an infrastructure where essentially the bill is opaque and usually your company is paying for it.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
So what do we have? We have opaque pricing that has no consumer scrutiny. We have regulatory capture and we have profit-seeking companies which are doing what they're supposed to do. So we end up with $13,000 per capita healthcare versus $6,500. And in exchange for that, we're more obese and we die sooner. So these companies had...
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
they come under any sort of reasonable threat that they might actually have to give Medicare or Medicaid the ability to negotiate these prices would have taken an enormous hit. And that's what happened right after the release. The data hadn't been absorbed and the stocks were down two to three percent. And then people read it and said, oh, this is the president presidenting doing jazz hands.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
saying fucking nothing, trying to get in the news, trying to pretend he's doing something with absolutely no strategy. This thing has absolutely no teeth. If you read the executive order, it's that he's suggesting they do it. He's saying this would be a good idea. And what do you know? Stock prices ended up, pharmaceutical prices ended up higher because what this said to the market was,
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Congress has the limpest dick in the world right now with their ability to go after health care costs. That even if the president makes a proclamation like this, there's no fucking way that this is actually going to happen. This is, as you can tell, I'm a little bit triggered.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
If you look at our deficit, which we have to get under control, otherwise you are just not going to have nearly the prosperity or opportunities my generation registered. The only way we're going to get to that $2 trillion a year is the following. Full stop. G7 nations pay on average $6,500 per capita for healthcare. We pay 13,000.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
350 million people times the $6,500 incremental, that's about $2.5 trillion. In sum, just the incremental cost to be more anxious, obese, and die sooner is costing us an incremental $2.5 trillion because of regulatory capture. And this stock market movement reflects the fact
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
that we have the most onerous, usurious, damaging regulatory capture in history that creates ridiculous, opaque, and insidious massive healthcare costs and a drag on the American economy. And this was the market saying, yeah, nice try, boss. Your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
I mean, if you wanted to lift up the economy and flush an additional $2.5 trillion into other things, all you need to do is bring our health care costs in line with other G6 nations who are healthier. So this would have accretive benefits across the entire economy. including lower costs on social services, lower burden on government services, more profits to tax.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
This is all roads lead to the same place. Should we tax billionaires more? Yes. Do we need to cut Social Security? Scott Galloway should never get Social Security 100%. We should raise the age. You're going to probably live to be like 190. So the notion that you should start getting Social Security at 65 makes no sense at all. There are a lot of things we can do.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
Nothing gets us there unless we go after this.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
You got to give the guy his due. He does have sometimes the right instincts, like let's ban TikTok. Oh, wait, TikTok's good for me and I have a political donor. Oh, never mind. Now I like it. And sometimes he has the right instincts. He has absolutely no ability to execute and thinks he's a deal guy.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
But to give you a sense of how outrageous this is, on average, we charge about four times the price for pharmaceuticals of what other nations pay. That's the equivalent. So Saudi Arabia, the kingdom. They produce a lot of oil. I don't know if you heard this. They produce a lot of oil, Ed. Now, why is it less expensive in the kingdom? Because we make a lot of this shit.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
So let's take advantage of the good work our domestic citizens do providing the exceptional or pulling out of the ground this exceptional blessing, this sitting on this sea of oil, so we'll give them less expensive gasoline. We produce more oil, i.e. pharmaceuticals, than any firm in the world. Do we, in fact, charge less for it? No.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
It would be similar to if Saudi Arabia decided they were going to charge $10 a gallon. We produce it and But I know Saudi Aramco figures out a way to weaponize the kingdom and the leadership and convince them that they should charge $10 a gallon despite being the biggest producer of oil. I've gotten off track here, Ed. Let's go to the next story.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
I've always thought Perplexity's core asset is it's got a really clean positioning. It's the search AI, or it's the AI search, right? I think this is an example of kind of the froth here. Their annual recurring revenue has grown from $5 million in January 2024 to $120 million, so obviously it's going like crazy. They registered 160 million visits compared to OpenAI's 5 billion.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
So what is that, about 30 times more in Google's 85 billion? So as a multiple of revenues, it's getting about 140 times ARR, whereas OpenAI trades at 25. So I think this is – I think if OpenAI gets public, which I believe they will, I think this is a tuck in acquisition. And they rebrand it as the more pure place search component of OpenAI or of Anthropic.
Prof G Markets
Why the U.S. Can’t Break Up with China — ft. Alice Han
I don't think this is – let me ask you because you and the team understand AI and the consumer-facing applications better than I do. What's to stop OpenAI from launching a perplexity killer?
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Then the US Congress and senators and the president signed a bill saying they were banning it. And then Trump said, whoa, hold off. So we have no credibility globally in terms of doing what we actually say we're going to be doing. So the way to summarize right now threats of banning technology, Chinese technology in the U.S., is simple. Ignore them, they'll blink.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
At the end of the day, ignore them. And on the eve of the banning, maybe the president will extend it. Maybe we get a donor to give him a bunch of money to extend it. It's no, is it an accident that one of his biggest donors, Jeff Yas, who's also one of the biggest investors in TikTok, and all of a sudden he's decided he likes TikTok and is trying to figure out a way not to ban it.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
You can't have serious negotiations, economic, geopolitical, even arms treaties with a nation that has no credibility. What is happening now and will happen with what's indicated by our lack of credibility around DeepSeek and TikTok is the same thing that's happening with the tariffs.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Don't clap. By the way, Ed, can we talk a little bit about your dress? Please. It sort of says, I surrender. You know, I got, dude, Brunello, a little rag and bone that are like, your kids are likely to survive with me. This says, you know, aging skateboarder, but rich, right?
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And that is, as we sit here right now, the world's largest economies that trade with each other to create incredible prosperity are redoing their alliances with people other than the U.S. because they can't count on us. It would almost be better if we actually implemented the tariffs and kept them in place for a while. People would at least go, it's a bad decision, but it's a decision.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So right now, everyone is going, figuring out different supply chain routes, different alliances to exclude this partner this kind of bipolar, unstable, inconsistent partner where the rest of the world goes, we don't know who we're waking up next to when we work with you.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
I just can't, this morning you stood in front of the mirror and said, that works.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So recessions, the joke that economists have predicted nine of the last three recessions, It is very difficult to know what's going to happen. What is obvious, though, consumer confidence has fallen further faster in the last month than it has since COVID. The economy is contracting faster than it has since COVID.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
The Atlanta Fed has this model to try and predict GDP growth, and it was running at 4% about 45 days ago, which is great growth. It's already fallen to negative 2.8. So growth and productivity aren't everything, but they're almost everything.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Because the only way we're going to grow out of this deficit, the only way we're going to grow into a greater tax base to start making some of the forward-leaning investments, we need to ensure continued prosperity for young people and technology and education. is through growth.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And the way that we've been able to rack up these massive deficits and not crash the dollar in our economy is that the U.S. 's growth has been remarkable over the last 30 or 40 years. It's been consistent, it's been strong, and it's been pretty steady. The thing on a more meta level, and granted, and I think anyone who listens to the pod knows, you know, I'm a glass half empty kind of guy.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
But I go much more meta on this. And that is, I see the most progressive, enlightened society over the last 200 years, in terms of an embrace of academics, art, music, an embrace of immigrants, gay rights, is Germany. But it had this 11-year descent into darkness. And what it had was a leader who was fascist. And I wanted to find what fascism is.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Fascism is extreme nationalism that ignores the courts, is willing to take off the gloves in terms of not condemning violence against your enemies, demonizing immigrants, and deciding that it's Germany first. I think our leadership literally defines the term fascist. So we have fascism, we have intimidation,
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
where people are calling for podcasters to be sued by the Trump administration if they call him a rapist, which I did. Morning Joe has to stop the show and say, it's not rape, it's sexual abuse. Right? There's a chill. When Bob Iger bends a knee and pays the Trump administration $10 million, I mean, there is a chill across media right now. Not to say anything bad about this guy.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
The most powerful wealthy people in the world are bending a knee and giving money they don't want to give to the inauguration campaign and then being show-poding around like fucking whores at his inauguration. Not that there's anything wrong with that. I'm a fan of sex work. We are one thing away from true demonization of a special interest group and going to a very ugly place.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
If you look at how things have spun out of control in societies and gone really dark, and that is a severe economic shock. And so the Democrat in me likes to think, okay, if the economy gets really bad and people see just how ridiculously stupid these decisions are, I kind of deep down think, okay, Maybe that'd be a good thing.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
I am worried that America has this cold comfort that we couldn't go there. Oh, bullshit, we could absolutely go there. Keep in mind, just a short 80 years ago, we were rounding up Japanese Americans, some of whom had kids serving in our military in the European theater, and we put them in camps. To believe it can't happen here is in my view, totally ignoring history.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And I think we have all the steps in place. If you look at what's happened in the past and other nations that have gone really dark, what we're missing quite frankly, and the reason I'm so freaked out about this data is a severe economic shock. Because the people in power aren't gonna take responsibility for it. They're gonna find a scapegoat.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So I think that America is very vulnerable to a series of dark steps right now. It is on a path to something very dark. And I think the missing piece to go even darker would be a severe economic shock. And this looks like we are not only setting ourselves up for recession, but potentially something worse. That was awful, wasn't it? Sorry. Take everything I say with a grain of salt.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So there's a lot to unpack there because the notion, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ are two of the most damaging metrics ever invented because they create the illusion that America is doing well if the NASDAQ is up. 90% of stocks run by the top 1%. A more important number would be deaths of despair. or rates of self-harm among teens, or life expectancy.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Our life expectancy has gone down, it's just started to go back up again. But we're obsessed, if the NASDAQ and the Dow are up, we fall into this false or this cold comfort, that America's doing well. The bottom line is the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ are largely indicators on the wellbeing of the top 1%. And spoiler alert, they're doing really, really well.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So if the stock market goes down, you're right, it's not the end of the world. The key is what is the issue that's bringing the stock market down. Natural corrections are really important. The reason I get to lead the life I lead from an economic security standpoint is just as I was coming into my prime income earning years in 2007 and 2008, the economy crashed. It got overvalued.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And the government decided to bail out banks for $700 billion, but they didn't bail out the economy. And just as I was finally starting to get some money, I was able to buy Apple, Amazon, and Netflix at $7, $8, and $12 a share. and I was able to buy Florida real estate at a really good price because we let the markets drop by not artificially pumping them up with deficits.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
COVID comes along, greatest intergenerational theft in history was COVID. A million people dying would be bad, but people my age losing wealth would be a tragedy. So they flushed $7 trillion into the economy, 85% of which wasn't spent, not needed, wasn't spent on medication, wasn't spent on housing. It was saved, which means it went into the market.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
which took stocks to new unnatural highs, took housing from an average of $290,000 to $415,000, which basically is nothing but robbing opportunity from young people that need disruption and an entry point at a good value, such that my stocks and my houses stay elevated. So everything we have done over the last 20 years is essentially ensuring cementing my prosperity and on your credit card.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So the market's coming down because we're not going to artificially inflate them with deficit spending, which is nothing but a tax on you that's delayed, fine, or they're overvalued. But the reason stocks are coming down now is because people realize that we are destroying very prosperous alliances. We are being very inconsistent about our economic policy.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Last night at Vox had a party and a lot of our advertisers are there. And there was two automobile companies. And they both said, and I've talked to a bunch of media companies, they've said, ads are down because auto companies and housing in different parts of the economy are literally in a state of paralysis. They don't know if the average car is about to increase in cost by $12,000.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
There was an exemption yesterday, now there's not an exemption. Who gave money to Trump? Can you call him? What can we do here, right? So that is having a huge impact on the real economy. So the stock market coming down because it's overvalued or because we're not willing to prop it up to keep me rich on your credit card, fine.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
But the stock market is going down now, not because it's having air lead out of it, it's coming down now because America is making really bad decisions that's similar to Brexit. We're trying to figure out an elegant way to raise costs while reducing our productivity.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So it's like, how could we elegantly reduce the quality of life, the purchasing power, and the prosperity of Americans really elegantly? And we are figuring it out.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Yeah, our economy used to be run, I would argue, people say that we have an attention economy, right? That we try and figure out algorithms to keep you engaged such that we can sell you more ads, that that's how the economy runs. I would go one step further and say that our economy is actually an addiction economy. And that is the most valuable companies in the world
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
essentially are trying to figure out your anthropological weaknesses, tap into those, and keep you glued to your phone by a series of indignance, negative feedback, positive feedback, enraging you, get you addicted to your phone. Because there's so much money in addiction. Now, we talk a lot about young men. Men are much more inclined to be risk aggressive.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So people love to hate Apple. I don't think, I mean, just a couple of weeks ago, think about it. We were complimenting Apple for how smart they were to not go down this rabbit hole of massive capital spending in AI. That they decided that rather than develop our own search engine,
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And by the way, risk aggressiveness comes in really handy, right? if Russian soldiers come pouring across the border, you know, you want some of that big dick risk taking energy. You want aggressiveness. The power of our economy, I think, is risk capital and people willing to leave their job and start a business or approach a stranger. This is a key component of our society.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
we're just going to charge $20 billion a year in rent to a bigger, better search engine, and $19.8 billion of that will hit the bottom line. I think it's about 20% of their market cap is derived from this relationship of renting search instead of investing themselves. And we were saying just a few weeks ago that them not making these extraordinary investments in AI
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
was probably the way to go, to rent the infrastructure or leverage it, and then at some point put themselves in a position where they could extract unfair rents from an open AI or an anthropic to be the default AI on Apple devices.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Well, just along the lines of housing, if you're fortunate enough to be with a partner and you're thinking about how to, the key is, the key is, I think, how do you develop economic security for you and your family?
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
People will pile in because I think what you're gonna see is, and you talked about this last week, we're about to see, in my view, a serious destruction in the value of Apple's equity. And a stock can stay elevated based on story for a while, but it's a little bit like gravity. At some point, gravity and fundamentals and valuation, I do think, tank over.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And I think that's starting to happen to Apple. Just some numbers. If you look at growth relative to price earnings, right? If the growth is bigger, you would think the PE multiple would be bigger. So you have NVIDIA, which grew 114% this year. And it trades at a PE of 40, which actually looks quite cheap given that it doubled its earnings. And then you have...
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And try and ignore the instinct that you're going to die at 35, because 99% of our time on this planet we've died before the age of 35, we have a tough time actually believing that you're ever gonna be my age. And that is, if you're 30 sitting in this audience, it means you're probably healthy. It means you're probably wealthy. It means you're probably gonna live another 70 or 80 years.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And so the key is, I mean, here's the good news. I know how to get you rich. The bad news is the answer is slowly. And what I would suggest is that you adopt the forced savings of a mortgage, but you create a mortgage around another investment class, and that is stocks across the U.S., low-cost ETF funds, and non-U.S. markets, because I think the U.S.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
is going to underperform international markets over the next 10 years. But try and figure out a forced savings plan that is tax-advantaged, commit with your partner, and rather than making a mortgage payment. So rent in Austin is about $1,500. The average cost of a home is about $3,000. I think a reasonable way to economic security is to say to your partner, all right,
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
We're going to have a fairly modest home. We're going to try and spend as much time with friends, with family, outside of the house. And we're going to take that incremental $1,500 a month in housing savings and we're going to force a mortgage on ourselves, hopefully through some sort of tax advantage vehicle through our employer or through the state or through the federal government.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And we're going to create a mortgage and every month we're going to pay our mortgage but our mortgage is going to be low-cost ETFs. Because over the medium and the long term, those return 9% to 11% versus 4% to 6% in housing.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So buy into the notion of economic security and a forced savings plan, but create a mortgage that forces you to invest in the markets and realize you're not failing if you just have a modest place to live and try and spend more time outside of the house. Create a mortgage, but instead of putting it into housing, put it into the markets.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft that are growing somewhere between 14 and 22% at the high end for Meta, and their PE multiples are somewhere between 20 and 30. And Amazon, PE of 38, grew 11% last year. Apple has a PE of 38, despite the fact it only grew 2%. So relative to its growth, it just looks really overvalued. Now, the most overvalued company in the world,
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Look, so let me be clear. I have most of my money. I'm very diversified, but I buy and sell options. I buy individual stocks because I can't help myself because I'm under the illusion that most people are under that I can beat the market. But what I do is I sequester that to 30% of my total portfolio. And then I'm not going to tell you how to risk up.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Just buying individual stocks that you think you have insight into, or whether it's crypto, small amount of money in Bitcoin or whatever, I'm going into Latin American and European ETFs because I think those markets are going to vastly outperform the U.S. market. And because I'm still a bit of a dopa addict, I'm doing these 2X funds that put leverage on them.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So you are going to have no trouble finding additional alpha and risk. Or I don't know if you can find alpha. You can definitely find risk. Even buying an individual stock is risky. But what I would say is sequester it to 50%. 30% of your portfolio. Your base, your go bag is 70% in low cost index funds. And also my big piece of advice around that is if you're just in the S&P in American stocks,
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
be careful because there's a crazy stat. So we've all heard that 50% of the market capitalization globally is now represented by U.S. stocks. You think, oh my God, half the world's value is in the U.S.? It's worse than that, because if you include debt, the enterprise value of a company is its market capitalization plus its debt.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So if you're a company worth a billion dollars in terms of your market cap, but you also have $500 million in debt, the market is saying, That company is worth $1.5 billion because they're taking into account that it owes $500 million. If you count debt, if you incorporate debt into the enterprise value of U.S.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
companies, the total value of all publicly traded companies globally, if it was $100, 70 of it is the U.S., So think about this just as a shopper trying to buy value. Right now, you can buy the US for $70, or you can buy the rest of the world for 30. That to me says that the U.S. is probably overvalued and the rest of the world is undervalued.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So I'm not only suggesting you be in ETFs that diversify you, but that you're geographically diverse. Because if you look at under or over performance of the U.S. versus international stocks, it's cyclical. There's usually 10 to 15 year under or over performance relative to international stocks. And U.S. stocks have been over performing international for 16 years.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And if you're like me and believe everything is cyclical, it means that we're probably going into a decade of underperformance in the U.S. and overperformance abroad. In terms of risk, you'll have no trouble finding risk. And then in 10 years, you'll come back and say, I was stupid. I should have just done ETFs. Thank you. Thank you for the question.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
What are you getting your doctorate in?
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Did I get my definition of fascism incorrect? You're going to forget my back.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
How do we stop when you say this, where this slow roll into fashion?
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Well, first off, thanks for what you're doing. I think education, by the way, is a really wonderful career. I'll just go on a rant about education. The problem with education is too many old people won't leave. And that is you're going to go hopefully get tenure, and there's going to be a bunch of 85-year-olds who were the bomb in Gap 1 accounting in 1983, and they won't fucking leave. Right.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
There's a company that grew 1% last year and is trading at a PE multiple of 134, despite shedding a third of its value over the last 30 days. And that's the company I love to hate, Tesla.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And the problem is it creates a lack of upward mobility for young academics. Now, having said that, I think academia is a fantastic way to make a living. It's a fantastic way to add value, be around young people. It's the only thing I've done for this long. Anyway, so I think you picked a good career.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
I think that I'm gonna go more to a strategy around how, quote unquote, those of us moderates, moderate Republicans, moderate Democrats and Democrats, how we sort of push back on what are some emerging themes that you understand history if you're alarmed by it. What I would say is what not to do is to be emotional incendiary and wave your cane and interrupt
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
State of the Union addresses, I just think we look like idiots. I think we look emotional, I think we look reckless, and it tickles the sensors of the right, and it turns off moderates. I think what we need to do, if in fact you're not comfortable with what's going on right now, is realize you don't need to respond to every issue on Twitter or TikTok.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And to also recognize the DEI causing helicopter crashes, the gulf of cheaper eggs, even the male versus female bullshit in terms of semantics, that is all a weapon of mass distraction to get you to look away from obvious incoherent, ridiculously bad government decisions. Specifically, what I would suggest is focus on one or two issues.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
You're obviously an expert or have real domain expertise around fascism. So focusing about writing about that, the similarities, try and resist the temptation to talk about I mean, all the outrageous shit, because what is going on right now is they want you to look over here and get upset and angry and not talk about the fact that, let's be honest, this is all a distraction from the following.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
We are surrendering to a murderous autocrat, and two, we are about to explode the deficit to $800 billion a year such that I can have a tax Cut. So the most powerful people in the world have this unholy alliance with the Trump administration right now.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And that is even though they quote-unquote care about democracy and everything, your rights are strictly, unfortunately now, entirely correlated to your wealth. Roe v. Wade doesn't impact me. I can get mesofestrone for any woman in my life. If they start rounding up people, I can shove Bitcoin up my ass and peace out to Dubai and have a really nice life. I will always be able to vote.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
I will always have access to politicians. Why? Because I'm rich.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And this is exactly what's happened, and this is what happened in the 30s, is Hitler had these unholy agreements with the rich and corporations that if you back me, I will give you favorable treatment, I'll destroy the unions, I'll go company by company and not pass systemic laws, but say whoever kisses my ass and gives me money makes more money. And that was part of the key descent into fascism.
Prof G Markets
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Long-winded way of saying, Don't have an emotional reckless response. Focus on the one or two things you're really passionate about. Bring experts, bring data, bring the adults in the room. And then, you know, I would say for wealthy people, the spinelessness of wealthy people who have this cold comfort that they'll always be able to buy rights, which is unfortunately true.
Prof G Markets
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They'll always be able to protect their daughters. They'll always have access to family planning. They will always have rights. is really frightening right now because the powerful among the US are not speaking up. Look at how many Fortune 500 CEOs have said anything, anything about what's going on.
Prof G Markets
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Today's number eight. If Texas was its own economy, it'd be the eighth largest nation in the world. True story. Last night, I got a little fucked up, went upstairs, took an edible Sunday night. It was bored, so I went down to the bar and I met this really hot guy. And I just kind of slipped out. I said, I have an enormous dick. And he said, but I don't like big dicks.
Prof G Markets
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They were really happy to shitpost Biden because they knew Biden wouldn't come after them, that Biden respected free speech and rule of law. Now they're succumbing to this chill that's been put across and that there'll be a reward if you just pay these people. So anyways, I think what you're doing is important work, being disciplined, fact-based, putting out content, being fearless about it.
Prof G Markets
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But I think as Democrats, we need to have a less emotional, reckless response. It is not working.
Prof G Markets
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I think, so I talk about my money all the time. I'm very transparent about my net worth in taxes. And I think some of it, as I really examine myself, is it makes me feel important and masculine because I'm economically secure. So let me be clear, I'm boasting a little bit. But most of it is I think we need to have, do you think, I met Randy Roddick last night
Prof G Markets
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You don't think Andy talked about tennis all the time? If you're not talking a lot about something and sharing ideas with your friends, you're not gonna be very good at it. And there's a real issue among, the genders don't talk about money for different reasons. For women, it's considered not sexy. You're not supposed to talk about money. It's uncouth or not good manners.
Prof G Markets
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And for men, you're supposed to be accidentally rich. I don't even try. I'm just such a fucking baller. I don't need to think about money. I just make so much money because I'm such a man. And I think it's really important that people open up and talk about their taxes, their net worth, their economic stress, such that they get much better at it.
Prof G Markets
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And it's hard to read the label from inside of the bottle. I mean, the wisdom of the crowds is incredible. I guarantee you, if you get together, I love investment clubs, with a group of people, one, don't feel shamed, right? Oh, shit, I just lost 80% in investment. I'm wondering if my apartment's too expensive. Because what you'll find is, one, other people are struggling, too. Right?
Prof G Markets
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The people who are economically secure are traditionally the people you don't know. And two, you'll get ideas. You'll start learning about stuff and you'll think about and you'll hear from a friend that, okay, you know there's a program at work or this is why you should negotiate for options instead of more salary with that job offer because options and equity grow tax deferred.
Prof G Markets
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That's how you build wealth. I think we know a lot about the markets. I constantly talk about money to my friends and I constantly get really good ideas around how I preserve wealth, how I make wealth, how I'm more tax efficient, which is Latin for tax avoidance. But for God's sakes, just as we started talking about cancer, 40, 50 years ago, that was really good.
Prof G Markets
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That made people feel better and less alien and less like a failure if someone in their life had cancer. Just as we started talking about mental illness just 10, 20 years ago, which is a wonderful unlock for people to reduce shaming and learn that other people are struggling too. One of the last taboos, we started talking about sex. I think that's a wonderful thing.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
One of the last taboos is talking about money. So being very open, also just in terms of blathering on here, a really key discussion you need to have with a potential romantic partner is money. The biggest source of divorce is economic strain. It's not infidelity. It's not a lack of shared values. It's economic strain. So making sure you have alignment.
Prof G Markets
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I don't make a big investment without telling my partner. That way, if it fucks up, losing money doesn't strain relationships. It surprises. Wait, what did you do? And we lost it all? Well, okay, that's bad, but what upsets me is you didn't tell me. So I think sharing with your partner very early conversations, where do we expect to live? How much money do we expect to make?
Prof G Markets
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Who's responsible for making that much money? What's your approach to spending? Every big investment decision, even if the other person, even if the husband doesn't quite understand that stuff and says to his wife, you're in charge of that stuff, I'm in charge of money in my relationship, but I always talk about our approach to spending, what we're investing in.
Prof G Markets
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I also find it's a great way to develop intimacy with people. Money is so important to capitalist society. It's way too important, let me be clear, but it creates a bond. I remember talking to my partner early on, just saying, this is what I have. This is what I'm worried about. This is what I'm thinking about in terms of kids. And I'm worried we can't stay in New York.
Prof G Markets
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And then she told me how much money she made. This was kind of early in the relationship. And it really made us feel like closer together. Because here's one of the most rewarding things about partnering with someone and why I really believe we need to figure out a way to get younger people to hook up more and mate more and drink more.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
is let me be clear, having money is wonderful, but you know what was even more awesome? Was the making it. And specifically, making it with a partner.
Prof G Markets
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like having economic shocks, being worried about money, both of us working hard, both of us saving, and then both of us investing, and then both of us together getting to economic security, that's so bonding and it's so like rewarding to build that with somebody.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So I absolutely think on a lot of dimensions, sharing and opening up and being vulnerable and talking about and sharing best practices around money, I think it's an enormous unlock.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
We could in about 10 or 15 years of underperformance. Keep in mind, Tim Cook has added more shareholder value than any individual in history, maybe with the exception of Jensen Huang. And that is since taking over Apple, the stock's up 19 fold. So this is what that means. This is how that distills down to practicality around governance. Everyone on the board, that is responsible.
Prof G Markets
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You have two jobs when you're on a board, if and when to sell the company and hiring and firing the CEO. Those are basically the only two important things you do. And also make sure the chairman of the audit committee makes sure that there's not fraud. But so the people who would have to make that decision, this is the reality.
Prof G Markets
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The majority of those people on that board have probably been there for a while and have made somewhere between 10 and $300 million. under the leadership of Tim Cook. So they feel a lot of goodwill towards Tim. And the idea that one bad quarter or a strategic misstep is gonna all of a sudden get them to decide, these are people, this is the conversation right now.
Prof G Markets
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Don't worry, Tim, we're at 110% behind you. Tim Cook probably leaves when Tim Cook wants to leave because he's done such an extraordinary job. And I brought a prop here. People talk about, I mean, the headset, which is fucking stupid.
Prof G Markets
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The headset was a call option to make sure that little cocksucker Mark Zuckerberg, probably the wrong term, was not going to get too far ahead with his attempt to make vertical distribution with a headset. So he said, spend a billion or $2 billion, maybe 10, which is chump change for us, to make sure that if headsets and spatial computing really are the future of tech,
Prof G Markets
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They were at letter D, not letter A. They're already killing it. It already doesn't work. People assume that Mark Zuckerberg is a genius, so everything he does, people rush to that end of the aisle. No, he hasn't been able to develop a product. The smart glasses will probably work. The headsets make no sense. The most underrated product are these.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
AirPods. This item would be a Fortune 50 company on its own. It is an extraordinary item. But the stock, it can be an amazing company. Tim Cook can be lauded as a fantastic fiduciary for shareholder value. And the stock could come down 40% because it's just become way too expensive. But the notion that Tim Cook or management is under any threat here, no way. This guy, arguably...
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
has been one of the most thoughtful fiduciaries and managers in corporate history. He's a first ballot hall of famer. He could literally screw up for 10 years. And just the last piece of data, Apple's percentage of its top line that goes into R&D is less than IBM's and less the rest of big tech.
Prof G Markets
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So the question that I think they should be having at a board level is, are we making the requisite investments in R&D to inspire new product development? Because if you look at it as a percentage of their top line, it's actually lower than it was at IBM in their heyday and much lower than some of the other big tech.
Prof G Markets
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To which I responded, how do you feel about liars? By the way, the reason I make so many dick jokes is not because I'm profane, but we really need to show more empathy for dicks themselves. I mean, think about it, right? Their hair is always messed up. Their family is nuts. Their neighbor is an asshole, and their owner is always beating them. This is not CNBC. Welcome to Prof G. Marcus.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
I didn't see that.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Well, I'm drinking. This brings up a larger issue, and that is Imagine a commercial on CNBC that showed me recommending a WhatsApp group to recommend stocks and charging you to be on it. And it ended up that CNBC had been fooled into running a deep fake ad that was fraudulent. What do you think would happen to Comcast?
Prof G Markets
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Well, first off, it would never happen because they have implements and friction and moderation and fact-checking, but also they would be liable. I would sue them and I would probably win because I'd be able to show damages. But because this happened on Meta, Doesn't matter. They have Section 230 protection.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And all of this fraud and all of this incredible damage to intellectual property, essentially what the GRU does is that they not only spread misinformation, but they'll actually put out correct information. It was like in the movie The Exorcist when the priest says the devil will mix in truth and falsehoods just to totally confuse you. And
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
If we don't put in place, in my view, really stringent penalties to the host platform for not ensuring or making the requisite investments such that people's personal IP is not protected,
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
the level of trust, not only in institutions, but in our individuals and our leaders and the people we look to for advice, the people we look to for, you know, a general reasonable voice around whatever it might be, health or politics, we're just going to be so confused as to who's actually saying what, that again, it'll be a further erosion in institutions and a further erosion in trust.
Prof G Markets
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Because when you see Esther Perel, you should be able to think she's been thoughtful and has some brings the research and the credibility and the empathy that she brings to her work. But all of a sudden, if there are a ton of fake stairs that you just get confused and overwhelmed and don't know what to believe and what not to believe, I think that really continues to fray at the fabric of America.
Prof G Markets
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And again, it shows why 230 needs to be redrawn. If you algorithmically elevate content, you should probably lose 230 protection. I think this is a big deal. I think people should have very... severe protection around their digital twin. Thank you. More importantly, the only way you're going to have digital protection is if one of these firms gets economically hit very hard.
Prof G Markets
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They will plead what they always plead, complexity. We can't stop this stuff. This is impossible. Well, on the eve of the passing of the Kids Online Safety Act, COSA, all of a sudden they figured out how to age gate. They're like, oh, we can use AI to figure out that you're 15, not 19, and then if we figure it out, we're gonna ask you to upload a federal idea.
Prof G Markets
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In about 48 hours, they figured out the impossible. So this will continue to happen unless we remove Section 230 and we hold these companies liable for effectively, if someone damages your reputation and makes it such that no one can trust you about anything you say, that is immense economic harm to you and your economic well-being for the rest of your life.
Prof G Markets
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So this is just yet another example of a transfer of wealth from traditional media to new media and new media getting to do things that, again, just erodes our trust in people and institutions.
Prof G Markets
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Oh, of course we should ban it. Just the same way it was obvious, and still is, that TikTok should be banned. So let me list all the media companies and AI, US AI companies, just in terms of trade symmetry, who are operating in China. So just in terms of trade symmetry, it makes no sense. But it's also a security threat. The fact that we are
Prof G Markets
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letting the CCP implant a neural jack into 70% of our future business, nonprofit, civic, and military leaders, such that they can make you feel shittier and shittier about America, one dance video at a time, that's just insane. TikTok has more impact and control over young people or exposure than ABC, NBC, or CBS did during the Cold War. Would we have allowed the Kremlin to own NBC, ABC, and CBS?
Prof G Markets
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But this is the problem. No one fucking takes us seriously anymore. When South Korea says they're banning DeepSeek, I think DeepSeek and the markets go, yeah, they're gonna ban it. Anyone know if the tariffs are back off or on right now? We have lost so much credibility. We passed a law, we banned TikTok, Trump didn't like it.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
So if OpenAI was publicly traded and had a market cap of $70 billion and he showed up, as he did with Twitter... and said, okay, I'm paying an enormous premium for a shitty company. The board has a fiduciary obligation to accept his bid. And ultimately they did when they saw he was paying 44 billion for something worth 10. And then they forced him to close, right?
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Because they said, this guy's an idiot and he's overpaying. So fine, we're gonna force you to close because we're being good fiduciaries for our shareholders. In this instance, the board, I think can pretty much dismiss it out of hand They can say, we represent all stakeholders. This guy is a fucking train wreck. He has a competitive company that's well behind. He wants to slow us down.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I mean, they can just come up with a billion reasons and they don't even really need to because I think it's a fairly... closely held company, no employee. I just don't think anyone's going to put up a big fuss here. He'll file a bunch of lawsuits or whatever. But again, I think us, the Marines storming the shores of Greenland is more likely than him getting control of OpenAI at this point.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
So this is just more, I want to be in the news. And the energy he's bringing here is what I'd call really, really bitter, angry ex-spouse energy. And that is, you divorced me, you kicked me out of the house, and then you went on to be Tom Brady, and I ended up being a waitress at Waffle House. I am fucking pissed off.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And even though the guy is remarkably successful, the fact that he doesn't control AI infuriates him. And what's even worse, is he used to. He was the largest shareholder here and he wanted to be in charge and the governance there said, no, we don't want you in charge. He said, that's it, I'm out. And he signed airtight legal documents stating, I'm out. I no longer own shares here. It's all yours.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I'm gone. And now he's decided now that the thing is arguably on this next financing going to be one of the 20 most valuable companies in the world and is well ahead of his AI efforts. I want back in the marriage and I want my marital assets back.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
But the thing about Sam and the lesson here is that I do believe Sam takes relationships and friendships seriously and has created a lot more allies than enemies along the way. And I would argue over the last... five to eight years, Musk has created more enemies and that his friends are essentially friends who've made money from him.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And when he stops making money for people, I mean, Tesla's, I don't know if you saw Tesla sales in Europe, Tesla sales in Europe, they're off 67% in France. They're off like 44% in Germany. The sales are imploding. We just heard, or we're going to hear what Alice said, Alice said about Tesla and China, which is not doing well. Here's the thing. You don't need friends when you're right.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
When you're making money, you're going to have no shortage of friends. When you're not doing well, that's when you find out if you have friends. I think Sam Altman has a lot of friends. You want to put yourself through generosity, through opportunities to help people by being a decent person, by occasionally taking a blow and not feeling you got to hit back all the time.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
You need to put yourself in a room full of opportunities, even when you're physically not in that room. And I think Sam has done that. I think there's a lot of people that want, you know, for good reasons and bad reasons, Sam's going to make people a lot of money. But I also think people generally believe that, I think he has a lot of real relationships.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I just think he has so much more goodwill than Musk right now. Even when they get in front of a judge, I think the judge won't be able to like be like, okay, here's one ketamine-edled aggressive asshole. And here's this other guy who comes across as like, you know, the gay son we all want, right? He just is like this incredibly likable, smart kid.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
That's why your parents paid half a million dollars for you to go to Princeton so you could talk about Napoleon and St. Helena. I just watched the movie. I love, by the way, I love the actress that plays Was it Glenevieve? She was outstanding. Did you see the movie, Napoleon?
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Vanessa Kirby. She's outstanding. Yeah, she's great. She's outstanding. She's also, I got some insight, some scoop here. I don't think I'm speaking out of school. She's engaged to one of the great athletes of all time. Who is? I'll let people guess. She's engaged to this incredibly, literally one of the most dominant athletes in history.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
That's what I said. Have you done it? I've tried. I'm like you. I could actually surf when I was younger. Pretty much my entire athletic life could be summarized as peaking when I was 13. And so I was actually a decent surfer when I was about 13. I lived in Laguna for a while. But ever since then... I go to Brazil and, you know, I'm quote-unquote claimed to surf.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And he's also a very soulful guy that reaches out to professors to ask for life advice. It's not Tom Brady. It's not Tom Brady. No, Tom does not reach out to me for advice. Yeah. One of the greatest athletes of all time. More as dominant as Tom Brady. I'm not exaggerating. He'll send me long voice memos saying, you were talking about love and I wanted to give you my view.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Yeah. So go online right now, go into the comments and guess who it is. Guess who is engaged to one of the great actresses and is the most dominant athlete of his sport in history and is also a very like... very emotional, in touch, like evolved man. It's going to be like the world darts champion or something. This guy made millions of dollars. Anyways.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
It's basically me out in the ocean holding on for dear life to a piece of fiberglass. Anyways, that sounds like a lot of fun. I think it's nice of you spending time with your buddies.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup. Episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube. By the way, I absolutely love Vivintu. I think she does a great job.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I thought it was fantastic. Yeah, it was really, really rewarding because the Prof G markets pod had just launched and we weren't entirely sure if anyone was going to show up. Yeah. So it was really rewarding and everything kind of came together. I love South by Southwest. I think they do a great job. I love Austin. It's a chance to see all the team from Vox. Yeah, so I'm super excited.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I want to put forward a thesis and you respond because you advise clients and governments. Deep-seek is a metaphor for trade, and that is we thought we were kicking China where it hurts by sequestering them from certain advanced chips, so they figured out a workaround where they might end up actually hurting or actually reducing the competitiveness of our own chips.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
At the same time, when we slap these tariffs on, we in the U.S. suffer from this notion that as strong as our economy is, as important as we are, the rest of the world is much bigger than us. And that all we're doing is kind of cutting prices and motivating the Chinese to establish stronger export trade relationships with other nations.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
That we're hurting them in the short run, but I'm not sure we're not hurting ourselves more. It just feels like this is all literally cutting off our nose to spot our face. Your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And if you look at some iconic U.S. companies that have just been cut in half, a lot of it is just China exposure, whether it's Starbucks or Estee Lauder. Just a straight up question. Who do you think has been hurt more by this chill? Chinese companies or American companies?
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Now is the time to cry. I hope you have plenty of the wherewithal.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
We have produced 75% of the steel we use. So the remaining 25% comes primarily from Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea. And I would think that they'd want to have some kind of slack supply in the in the form of imports and not reduce or make imports less attractive.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I don't know if it's kind of union or regulatory capture where he did, you know, he promised steel workers a better deal or something like that. And what do you know, the steel industry donated over $10 million to political campaigns in 2024 across both Democratic and Republican parties. Do you have any thoughts here, Ed?
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I have one more question, and this is more, really more nuanced or more kind of vibey of a question, and that is- Here we go. 2000, I started going to China, and I was just fascinated with it. And Shanghai, and then started working with these big Western brands in China, enjoyed speaking at universities there, really enjoyed going there, and made nice connections, nice relationships there.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And then COVID and kind of the chill, if you will. I haven't been back since pre-COVID. And I have no plans to go back because I don't know how much of it is propaganda or real, but I just feel less warm about China. And the result for me, and I think a lot of people call us the mid-level business people, is we don't have immediate plans to go back or re-engage with China anymore.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Do you think that you're going to see a re-engagement and that people are going to start going back to China? Or do you think this chill is kind of frozen over and it's going to be a while before the saw?
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Today's number, $85 million. That's how much the U.S. Mint lost producing pennies last year. By the way, did you know that more money is spent on breast enhancement, Viagra, than on Alzheimer's research? At this pace, by 2040, the elderly will have big tits, stiff cocks, and no fucking idea why. That makes me happy. That makes me happy. Okay. And now Albrecht's China expert.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
It's the most obscene, ridiculous tax loophole, probably in the tax code. And that is, let's figure out a way to give an enormous tax break to what is probably the wealthiest or the wealthiest cohort of people in American history. And that is people managing other people's money. So the loophole is the following.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
There's essentially income is divided, broadly speaking, into two categories, a capital gain or ordinary income. Ordinary income is what the majority of the team here makes. And that is they come to work, they do podcasts, they produce, they edit, they get paid. That's ordinary income. And that's taxed at up to 37% federal.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And then if you roll in state and local and you live in a place like New York, at some point, you could be paying 48 to 52% taxes. And then there's capital gains, which means you buy an asset, you invest, and then you sell it. And if you held onto that asset for longer than a year, I think the highest rate is 22.8%.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
So you want to have as much income qualify as capital gain as opposed to ordinary income. And really kind of the secret to building wealth is to make the jump to life speed such that the majority of your income comes from capital gains as opposed to ordinary income. What the private equity industry figured out a way to do is that if they raise a billion dollars and they invest it,
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And they turn that billion dollars into $2 billion over seven years. That billion dollars in profits that goes back to their investors, they get a 20% carried interest on. So they get $200 million. Really think of it as a commission, right? If you sell something for more than you bought it for, as most salespeople are charged with doing in any organization, if they get a commission on that sale—
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
They get taxed at ordinary income. But private equity has figured out a way to weaponize government and through regulatory capture, turn those commissions. And that's what carried interest is. It's a commission on the incremental gains from investing other people's money. For some reason, the government decided that qualifies as a capital gain. This is the definition of just...
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
inequitable, corruption, transfer of money from lower middle-income people to rich people. So I think it's great the president is doing this. If anything, I would argue we need to do what Reagan did, turn all of this into one source of income.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And I would even argue in the business of managing other people's money, they should be subject to the highest taxes, especially once they get to the kind of scale that some of these big private equity shops get to.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I'm hopeful that this thing finally goes away. This really isn't a slap in the face of the middle class.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Welcome to Prop G Markets. And this is definitely not CNBC.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
So as far as I understand it, because... Once they smelled money, OpenAI, which was a nonprofit, tried to pull off this jujitsu move and turn into a for-profit while maintaining some of the governance of a nonprofit. So the nonprofit division has some governance rights.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And I think what has happened here is that effectively they're hoping that they have accidentally created a two-class shareholder company. And if they get control of the nonprofit, they get control of the whole company. Because you're right, if they'd had more money, they would have showed up and said, okay, you're doing a raise at 300 pre, 340 post. We're going to offer you 500.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
This, in my opinion, is just a lot of jazz hands. And basically, I think what happened here was Musk said to his bankers and his lawyers, you know, this is one of the issues where you engage in law for. We have so much money. You can just take an hour. People are like, where does he find the time to do this? I literally think he just met with... He shoots his buddy a text.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Yeah, this is... He is literally the full... White Shoe Law Firm, Aggressive Law Firm, and Aggressive Banker Employment Act. And that is he can meet with his chief lawyer and his chief banker and say, Sam Altman, fuck with him. Find any means possible. And the bankers come back and say, well, there's this kind of weird thing. We could make a bid for the whole thing. We can't afford that.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
That's not credible. There's actually a separate element here that has some governments, right? Make a bid for that and try and create a cudgel where the people at the nonprofit want more of their stake of NewCo, but just slow them down so I can catch up with a distant seventh or eighth.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And it was just so hilarious, the statement they put out, and just so ridiculously cynical, and I want to read it, or a must statement when he talked about it. He said that, "'It's time for OpenAI to return to its open-source, safety-focused force for good it once was.'"
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Okay, so all these private equity firms and the CEO of WME are going to fork over $98 billion for the betterment of humanity and AI? Yeah, that's what Ari Emanuel wants for sure, yeah. Yeah, he's worried about AI, so they're going to come up with $98 billion. It's just to try and take over open AI. In addition...
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
The difference in governance, specifically your ability to basically stick up the middle finger to outsiders, including OpenAI's ability to basically tell them to fuck off, is much greater when you're a private company than a public company. And he can sue them, but at the end of the day, he's not subject to the same SEC regulations, I don't believe, as a publicly traded company.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And get up to $10,000 when you transfer your old portfolio. That's public.com slash prop G. Paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities, options, and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Our assets have gone up in value. Our stocks have gone up in value. Everything – when everybody wants to buy dollars and everyone thinks, I don't know what the fuck to do with my money, I know I'll buy NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple, or I'll just put it in a fund that says US S&P or NASDAQ, right? those rivers have reversed.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And this is going to cause even the shock on last week, on Thursday and Friday, hurt everyone. Everyone's like, okay, we're all fucked. He's figured out an elegant way to hurt us and hurt himself. And then on Monday, the U.S. markets went down again, but Germany's DAX closed 2.5% higher because I think the world is figuring out
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
That, yeah, this is bad for everyone, but it's really bad for those guys. And also these markets are starting from a much lower valuation. So there's a lot of – if we just do okay, maybe even – I mean, China, you don't want to talk about a big winner. I think your Chinese stocks traded a multiple of 14. U.S. was at 28. Now it's more like 26. I think those two are going to converge. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
I think you're going to see a convergence of the multiple on Chinese stocks and U.S. S&P stocks because basically China is roaming the earth right now. And I have some firsthand data on this, or firsthand, not data, anecdotal evidence. China's showing up to the biggest economies and biggest companies in the world and saying, Yeah, you know, they're crazy. I roll, by the way, you can count on us.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
If we sign an agreement, we're good partners. We're open for business. We want to do business. So I think the biggest economic story in terms of on the ground, what happens in the markets is that the Amazon River of capital that has flowed into the United States for the last 15 years, which we have taken for granted, the river has reversed.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Today's number five. That's the percentage of avocados consumed across the U.S. that Chipotle purchased last year. Ed, for me, working at Chipotle for free burritos was like working in porn in that it was fun, but it was really rough on my asshole.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
There's an effect called the Dunning-Kruger effect, and I suffer from this, and that is I've had some success in a very limited part of the business world. And so I'm convinced that I have knowledge and insight and I'd be good at a lot of different things. Trump isn't even Dunning-Kruger because people might say, oh, he suffers from Dunning-Kruger. I heard someone say that on CNN.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
But that assumes he's good at something. He was good at reality TV. People say, oh, he's a business person. He is loving these tariffs and then having these one-off, quote-unquote, deal conversations. He had a 10% base tariff that applies to nearly all U.S. trading partners. Japan is fast-tracked for tariff negotiations after Trump did a call with Shiba.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
This guy thinks he's the ultimate dealmaker and can start cutting deals like he's selling fucking condos for a $25 trillion economy. And folks, the reason why this is not the Dunning-Kruger effect is, spoiler alert, this guy is a fucking terrible business person. This notion that this guy is the guy to figure out these individual tariffs based on his blood sugar level.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And quite frankly, if you want to know who's not going to have a tariff or have their tariffs reduced, look at his lunch calendar. Look at who's kissing his ass. That is not how you run a government. And this notion that somehow this guy has any insight into the economy, much less business, is not true. He is a terrible business person. You do not have one-off deals as president.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
You just don't do that. Maybe in wartime in terms of treaties and alliances, but in terms of economics, no. You have laws that affect everybody. Otherwise, this is nothing but a line out the door of law firms agreeing to not take on his adversaries, kissing his ass. Hey, we're going to give you $50 million.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
for your inaugural campaign or wink-wink, I'm thinking about buying $100 million in the Trump coin. And you don't even need to know about it. I'm just going to do it. And the next day, it comes out that whoever has lower tariffs, you watch. Apple's going to figure out a way to get out of this. Tim Cook is so elegant and smart. He'll figure out a way to get out of this. And let's talk.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Let's use Apple as an example of just how head up your ass these tariffs are. With the current plan to tariff China, iPhones are going to go from $1,300 to $2,000. And then ass clown Howard Lutnick says there are millions of people assembling little screws into iPhones. We're going to bring all of those jobs back. Right. Can't wait to be screwing screws into an iPhone.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Dave Chappelle summarized it perfectly. He said, we want to wear Nikes. We don't want to make them. We can't get people to wear hazmat suits and go work at a chip factory and glue on circuit boards for 70 or 80 bucks an hour. They'd rather do something else. We have traded off jobs that are low value add, that don't create a lot of margin, that Americans don't want and can't do economically.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
So what do we have? We have an iPhone with the world's most robust supply chain that costs about 12 or 1300 bucks. With the current tariffs, it goes to 2000. Well, okay, the idea is, is that, well, maybe that'll make the iPhone produced domestically more attractive and bring back all these jobs. To produce an iPhone in the United States would cost $3,500.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
So you take the iPhone from $1,300 to $3,500, you're going to cut Apple's revenue on the iPhone probably in half. But let's be conservative and say it cuts it by $40 billion. They traded a multiple of sales of eight. So you're going to take a third of a trillion dollars off of the market cap. You're going to dramatically decrease the amount of labor.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
They're going to put in place reciprocal tariffs. All the shit we sell into their Estee Lauder cosmetics, North Face jackets, All the things we sell into there will become less appealing to their consumers and they'll start buying more European products or Mexican products. So what do we have?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
We not only have a reduction in prosperity, we have an asymmetric reduction in prosperity because the shit we're selling into them is much higher margin than the shit they're selling into us.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
It's almost near impossible that they didn't because other than that, these people's brains are being run by Hopper NVIDIA chips because their tariffs, even the numbers, seem to exactly match with ChatGPT. What they forgot in the prompt, though, was account for margin. and account for services and account for labor preferences.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Barely a joke. I go to Chipotle and I always click on the jokes that say NSFW. Because that's what people, that's our brand, Ed.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
They have, in other words, the people advising the president are not only don't have the domain expertise to make these decisions themselves, they're terrible prompt engineers. And when I was writing, I'm writing a book on masculinity and what it means to be a man, see above Ed Elson. But what I initially thought was, oh, it's great. I'll just do great prompts and I'll type it into chat GPT.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And I'll edit it, throw in some dick jokes, and boom, book. And what you find when you ask a machine for answers, one, it gets it wrong a lot. And two, it gives you an esoteric answer that doesn't in any way solve for nuance. And a lot of it is based on the prompt. And the fact that their responses are based on a trade imbalance is, You want a trade imbalance. Everybody wants our dollars.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Everyone wants to buy our expensive shit. Fine. And then we get to buy their very inexpensive shit. And we buy a ton of it. And it's awesome. And the fact that a ship pulling into Long Beach Harbor from Shenzhen or Hong Kong is really low in the water and it goes back high in the water, it's because they're selling us all this really low margin manufactured shit like...
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
like, I don't know, desk supplies and toys. And what are we selling them? We're selling them financial services. We're selling them back their iPhones that they have produced. We're selling them all these high margin products. So whoever went to ChatGP2's quote on his economic team would not be able to get a job as a prompt engineer for any reasonably competent company.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
That's our brand. That's why we will never be acquired by Disney. Disney is off the table.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
It's man makeup. I was supposed to be on TV this morning. So I take my Clinique bronzer and I take this Chanel moisturizer and I rub it in my hands and I put it all over my head and voila, it's young, youthful Scott.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
We're going to be talking about this for a while, but even more damaging again than the tariffs are that the American brand, which is the most powerful brand in the world, the beginning of my brand strategy class, I say, what's the fastest zero to 60 brand? What brand went from no awareness to total awareness? And I try and do it to inspire the class. And in my view, it's Al-Qaeda.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
No one knew who Al-Qaeda was on September the 10th, 2001. By September the 12th, the whole world knew the term Al-Qaeda. That the strongest brand in history, I would argue, is the U.S. dollar, specifically the U.S. It means innovation. It means wealth. It means prosperity.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
It means unbelievable military might and also rule of law and that our heart's in the right place and we're trying to do the right thing. Trying to do the right thing. Get it wrong all the fucking time, but trying to do the right thing. In three short months, we have lost those associations. Churchill has this great quote that he's credited with. Actually, he might have been incorrectly credited.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
It was probably a guy named Victor Hugo. And the quote is something along the lines of the following. Nothing is worse than fighting with your allies except fighting without them. And we're about a country that has been so fortunate that has 5% of the world's population but 25% of its prosperity.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
We're about to find out that as powerful as we are, that when we fight and when we compete for resources without our allies, it doesn't end well.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Yeah, I think that while everyone's watching this shit on YouTube, my strategy is people pull us up on YouTube and they're like, oh, I think I'm going back to audio. I'm not excited. People oftentimes come up to me and they're like, I recognize your voice. Are you Scott Galloway? And I'm like, yeah, I'm Scott Galloway.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
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Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
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Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
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Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Brokerage services for U.S.-listed registered securities, options, and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And they kind of tilt their head like a dog that's walked into a room that doesn't know where it is. And you can tell they're a little disappointed.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
I have a very handsome voice, and they were hoping the rest of Daddy was going to match the voice, and it doesn't.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
No, I hope people vote for us as Ed needs his first Webby. That's right.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
That's literally a hand job from your cousin at Thanksgiving. Okay, it felt good, but yeah, all right. What's next? God, I'm so profane today. You really are. Yeah, and it's a great party. Didn't you guys go to the party that the Webby's put on?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
So next question, magic wand, advising the White House and the UK government, what are the two or three things, if you had a magic wand to try and restore a robust middle class, would you suggest in terms of economic or social policy?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
So let me just press pause there, because I agree with you, but the wealthy are the most mobile people in the world. And when France introduces a wealth tax, Arnaud decides he loves Brussels and he moves to Belgium. The wealth taxes are difficult to enforce. In theory, they make a lot of sense, but practically they're difficult to enforce.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
What about the idea of just an AMT that restores minimum tax for corporations and the wealthy, say, of 30 or 40 percent? taxes on their incomes? Well, right now, there's several Fortune 100 companies. Corporations are paying the lowest taxes in the U.S. since 1929. The wealthiest, 25 people, and paying 6% tax rates.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Anyways, get to the headlines. Let's do it.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
An alternative minimum tax of 30, 40, 50% above, call it a million, 10 million, whatever it is, that regardless of Your ability to weaponize the tax code. Okay, fine. You have to pay a minimum of this. Isn't that a more practical solution than people? You have seen this, the non-DOM thing in the UK.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
The majority of my friends who are wealthy are peacing out to Milan or Dubai because they can because they're wealthy. So for me, a more practical solution would be an alternative minimum tax. Your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Well, you've definitely started it and I'll turn it back to Ed, but I just want to summarize one of the things that, and I'm going to put words in your mouth, but I want to give you a chance to disagree with me, that throughout history, the wealthy just get wealthier unless you consciously redistribute money into the middle class. The middle class is not a naturally occurring organism.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
If you don't support it, and redistribute money from the wealthy who weaponize government and actually have just these huge advantages, it withers, which is what is happening now in this common trope or myth of the incumbents is that the middle class, the market will figure out the middle class on its own.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
I think what I hear you saying is no, it's really important and it requires a redistribution back from the wealthy to the middle class. Am I representing you correctly?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube by the way I absolutely love Vivintu I think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
About 80% of our listeners are male, and a lot of them are young people who I think feel they're smart, maybe certification, they work hard, but they feel really frustrated by some of the dynamics you've outlined. In America, for the first time in our history, a 30-year-old isn't doing as well as his or her parents were at 30. And it's just very upsetting for them.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
We have the most anxious, depressed, obese generation in history. what advice would you give to your younger self or to some of the young people listening to this podcast?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And I just want to add to this, Gary, I think of you as a class trader. And I say that in the most positive way. We need people who have made millions of dollars trading, who are calling bullshit on, I don't know what you would call this, the corporate elitist, the corporate. We need class traders. And I count you among that group. And I think your message is really important.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Thanks for your good work. Thanks, guys. Thanks for having me.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
It reminds me of something that really changed my perspective on U.S. and the term meritocracy. Do you know Alain de Botton, the British philosopher?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
He wrote a book called Religion for Atheists. And he did this wonderful thing. He hung out at Heathrow Airport. He lived at Heathrow Airport for a few days and interviewed people. And it was just this really inspiring thing. And he has things called the School of Life. And he gave this amazing TED Talk about 15 years. It kind of changed my life, but really kind of changed my political views.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And that is, he said, the problem with a meritocracy is that the upside is agency. You believe you can do anything, and that's really important for people, and that's a core tenet of America, that we're a meritocracy. But he said there's a really ugly side to a meritocracy, or the belief that you live in a meritocratic society, and it's the following, that if you don't make it, it's your fault.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
that we teach kids in America that anyone can be anything, but if you're not adding up to a lot, it's your fault. And Gary's comments really echo that, and that is a lot of young people don't forgive themselves. It feels like everyone around them is on a Gulfstream or partying in St. Barts, and they're not.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And what's worse than that is I think they could handle that they're not, but they believe it's their fault. And I thought that was really powerful. I don't want to lower anyone's expectations. I do believe that still in America, low-income people still do have agency. Our actual income mobility has stayed flat. It's still 11% of people in the lowest quintile make it to the top quintile.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
This volatility is great for traders. It's up, it's down. There was a rumor, CNBC leaked a rumor that the tariffs are off. It spiked, as you said. Traders will make a lot of money, but this is what the medium and long-term effects will be. We've talked about this. There will be a re-rating of the U.S. markets where rule of law and consistency are no longer necessary. features.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
That's actually stayed flat for a while. So you do still have some agency. But there is an ugly side. We've just... Again, I go back to, look what money has done to us.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
We give young people, especially young men, the belief that if they aren't just fucking ballers, if they haven't figured out a way to turn money into millions and crypto, or they're not a partner at Goldman, because everybody knows someone who's done it, right? Everybody knows somebody. And then 210 times a day, they're reminded it's not them. And I do think it's important to say, look,
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
to take care of your family, take care of yourself, be a good person, live a virtuous life, get up, work hard, be patriotic, that that means you're a good man. And I worry that every incentive and algorithm and notion that you can be president or you can make millions in crypto, there's an ugly side to it, that we need to...
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
moved to a society, and I think we used to have this, you know, being a principal with a high prestige position, being a cool guy, being strong, being in shape, you know, you could be a high character person and it meant you were a real successful man. And I worry now that everything around your self-worth is just all about money.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And that it just attacks the self-esteem of good people, good young people who are trying hard, taking care of themselves and taking care of their family. So his message really resonated that there's real dignity and honor in doing that. Even if you're not living in the biggest house and driving the fastest car, there's dignity in work and dignity in figuring out a way to take care of your own.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
They're bugs because we're inconsistent and we have one-off asymmetric, non-systemic punishment and rewards based on who the president gets donations from. And over the medium and long-term, you're going to see the following. You're going to see the ratio on the PE ratio on the S&P go from 26 into the teens.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And I don't care how outstanding your firm is at growing its earnings, you cannot outrun multiple contractions. So this is volatility. But you can bet the through line, the regression line is going to be down and to the right. Your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
It'd be fun to say the market's off another 5,000 points next week. Market could go up 3,000 points. This is the only thing I'm fairly certain on is volatility.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
I loved it. I have two kind of initial thoughts. The first is I really appreciate what you're saying, and I like your commitment. I like your earnestness. I can't match it. I'm just too cynical and jaded at this point. But, you know, we will try to be fearless. Last week I got a bunch of calls from my agency because I – called out the people who run the agency.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And I think, you know, I'm like, let's be fearless. Let's speak our minds. I mean, we might get it wrong, but our heart's in the right place. And the second thought I had is, dude, you are so sexy. Oh my God, when you were giving that rant, I'm like, Jesus Christ, this dude is sexy. Sexy.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
But look, in my opinion, the biggest economic event, short of some exogenous shock, which you can't predict, but the biggest economic event started about 90 days ago and is accelerating. And that is the world's largest river of capital has reversed direction. The flows of capital into the U.S., we have just taken for granted over the last 15 years. Everything goes up in value.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Would they cut the investment from $30 billion to $20 billion like they said they would? And what do you know? They're not cutting their investment. Why aren't they doing that? Why are they keeping their original $30 billion? Because they got rid of the cap profit clause. So their issue is resolved now. They can still make a ton of money, and it's just a regular investment.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
So that's the third point. The fourth and final point that I would say here, the only thing that makes OpenAI even slightly resemble a nonprofit is the fact that the board of the nonprofit entity technically governs them. But if OpenAI wanted to just go full steam ahead and print money, there's no chance in hell that that board is going to get in the way.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
And the reason I say that is because this has already been tested. Back in 2023, when the nonprofit board thought that Sam Altman was there, they had a loss of faith in the CEO, Sam Altman, and they tried to fire him. And what happened? Sam Altman was just reinstated. And then they just installed an entirely new board of people who weren't against him. So all of this is to say,
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
None of this news actually matters. This is all just bullshit corporate speak to make you think that OpenAI is some like nonprofit. It's just a company. It's like any other company, which by the way, is not a bad thing. Like I think companies are great and they can do great things, but I'd love if they could just be honest about that recognize upfront, yeah, our goal is to make money.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Enough with Sam Altman going to these Senate hearings and saying, I don't have any financial stake in OpenAI. I don't care about making money. Like, everyone cares about making fucking money here. And that's okay. It's not a bad thing. But we don't need to just pretend that it's like some sort of charity. It's not. It's a company.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
And to clarify, Elon Musk filed a lawsuit against OpenAI saying, you're not allowed to become a for-profit company, you were established as a non-profit. So to your point, yeah, maybe they're just doing this to make the concession and not have to fight the lawsuit. In which case, maybe the nomenclature engineering is actually a great idea.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Let's talk about Warren Buffett, who is retiring as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Yeah. A pretty big moment in the business news world, Scott. I think you made this point when we were talking that CNBC is going to have like a seven-day wake for the guy. He's not dead, but he's retired. Technically speaking, it shouldn't be a big deal because the guy's 94 years old. He said he was going to retire.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Now he's retired. He's even still staying on as chairman of the company. But I think the reason that it's important is because the reaction has been so gigantic in the news and in social media.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Because I think that what that tells you is that there was something about this guy, this seemingly regular dude who lived in Omaha, Nebraska, whose favorite food is a quarter pounder with cheese from McDonald's. Something about him just captured people's imaginations. And I don't think it's just that he was rich.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
I don't know why that's so funny. I'm in Hamburg, Ed. How are you? How are you? Welcome to Rob G. Marcus. It's not even that funny.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
You know, you got Larry Ellison, you got Steve Ballmer, you got Sergey Brin, all these guys who made as much or more money than him. None of them have had anywhere near the level of impact that he's had. And I guess I've just been thinking like, you know, what do people love about Warren Buffett? What has made him such an iconic figure in our industry? I think it's two things.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
that are quite rare today and that are especially rare in the business world and in the investing community. First thing is he was a uniquely humble person. This is a guy who's lived in the same house for 65 years. His favorite restaurant is a diner in Omaha.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
He's never cared about the money and the yachts and the jets and the spaceships, all the stuff that you see with the Mark Zuckerbergs and the Elon Musks. And I think it's just refreshing to see that from a billionaire. So that's the first thing. The second thing, and this is the part that I admire about him, is that he was a uniquely sensible person.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
I mean, I just think about all of the investments that he could have made with Berkshire Hathaway, that all of these other investors got carried away with. The crypto, the SPACs, these sort of unprofitable moonshot tech bets where you could have seen a thousand X return, or at least that's what these guys pitch. You know, he could have got involved... in any of this stuff.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
And he's got such a cult following, he could have really pumped as much as he wanted to, but he was never distracted by that. You know, you look at his portfolio, every item is a sensible value-based safe investment. He was laser focused on value investing.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
And I think that's what I admire most about him, how sensible he is, especially in a world where you look at all these billionaires, they only seem to make sense like 5% of the time.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
And it says a lot that the day that a 94-year-old CEO retired, the stock dropped 5%. Like, if you told me that sentence, I'd be like, okay, the stock's going to skyrocket. People are probably waiting for this guy to retire. But total opposite. I mean, people still trust him so deeply, and they have good reason to. Just a number here.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Not even that funny. I think you're just in a good mood.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Berkshire Hathaway stock since 1964 has returned 5.5 million percent. If you invested $10,000 in 1965, it would be worth $26.7 million versus $1 million in the S&P 500. Massively outperformed the S&P for many, many years, which is almost impossible to do as an investment manager. I will end with one Buffett quote that I love. Someone asked him, what does it mean to be rich?
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
I went to the- I need to interrupt you, Scott. You don't have to pronounce gala.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
He responded, quote, if there is a place that is warm in the winter and cool in the summer, and you do what you love doing, you will be fine. You are rich if you are working around people you like. You will make money if you are energetic and intelligent. This society lets smart people with drive earn a very good living. You will be no exception.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
We'll be right back after the break for our conversation with Michael Semblist. If you're enjoying the show so far and you haven't subscribed, be sure to give the Profiteer Markets feed a follow wherever you get your podcasts.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Welcome back. Here is our conversation with Michael Semblist, the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management. Michael, thank you very much for joining us on Profiting Markets.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
You are in charge of Investment Strategy at J.P. Morgan. J.P. Morgan is... probably the largest financial institution in the world. You have what I would consider like the front row seat to what's happening in the capital markets. I mean, I think about where Scott and I are situated. We comment on stuff, we make predictions, but we're in sort of row D or E. You are kind of court side.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
So I'm very grateful to have you on today. I want to start with a trend that Scott and I have been discussing a lot on this show, which we have been calling the global rotation. This idea that after tariffs, something happened and the flows of capital globally started to shift or rotate away from the U.S. and into foreign markets.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
And that the consequences of that could be systemic, structural, permanent, however you want to call it. What are you seeing from your seat?
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Yeah, we got a big guest on today.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Hopefully he's still down. What's going on with you? I'm doing all right. It's a pretty rainy, foggy, disgusting day in New York. Apparently it's going to rain throughout the entire week. So it's a good thing you left, I guess. I'm coming back tomorrow. Oh, is that right?
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
When you say the movement has been small so far, what do you mean by that? Because at the same time, you're explaining how the, I mean, from what I've seen and from what I've read, it's the biggest jump we've ever seen. in terms of outflows converting into inflows into other markets. So in what sense is it small? Where are we on that spectrum?
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
part of the question we're trying to figure out here is you know clearly something has been triggered that could unwind this American exceptionalism theme and the question is whether it is now sort of irreversible I mean we You've been making analogies to landslides and to rivers, this idea that something happened and now the slide, it's just a natural force. It's going to happen.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
The Capitol is going to move out of America. And I think this is the thing that I'm trying to think in my head. Is it as big of a natural event or is it something that could be reversed if, say, we elect a new president in four years or whatever it is?
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Do you think Jamie Dimon does? I mean, you're one of the closest people to him. What is, if you could say, what do you think he thinks of it?
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
When you look at foreign markets, say we want to diversify out of the US, say we want to get into these other markets, what markets should we be focusing on? Should we be looking at Europe, China, India? What are some of the macro factors that you're taking into account as you evaluate these other foreign markets and their investment value?
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Oh, we're big in Germany. I'm pretty impressed by that event. What is that event? There were like thousands of people in that audience.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
President Trump has authorized a 100% tariff on films produced outside of the U.S., calling the issue a, quote, national security threat. Netflix, Disney, Warner Brothers Discovery, and Paramount stocks all fell on that news. However, the White House clarified that no final decisions have been made.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
OpenAI has scrapped its plans to become a for-profit entity, opting to keep the company under the control of its non-profit board. CEO Sam Altman said the change won't affect access to a $30 billion investment from SoftBank, which was partially tied to that restructuring. And finally, Warren Buffett announced he is stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
The stock fell 5% following the board's unanimous approval of Greg Abel, who is the vice chairman of non-insurance operations. He will come in as Warren Buffett's successor. Scott, Let's talk about these movie tariffs, this next set of tariffs from Trump on Hollywood.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Yeah, have you changed anything in your strategy at JP Morgan since the tariffs? I think that's the other question we've been trying to address. We know that there is potentially a global shift on the table. We know that we should now be paying more attention to foreign markets. We know that the American exceptionalism trade is now at risk.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
But I think the question we've been trying to figure out in this podcast is, do we make a shift today or do we kind of wait and see and see how things shake out? I'd just be interested to know, at J.P. Morgan, Where do you land on that question?
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
I should point out, I think the trend here that Trump is trying to address, he's not wrong in what is happening, in the idea that production is moving out of the U.S., it's moving away from Hollywood and towards foreign markets. That is actually true. We're increasingly seeing this content that's filmed in places like the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Actually, most of the Best Picture nominees at the Oscars this year were filmed outside of America. And I would imagine that the data point that was placed on Trump's desk here, and which he is reacting to with this new tariff order, is that US-based spending on big budget films has fallen 26% in the past two years. And meanwhile, in the UK and Canada, spending has increased.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
We talk a lot about inequality on this podcast, and we just saw this report where the top 19 households in America now own 1.8% of all U.S. household wealth. Meanwhile, the bottom 50% own 3%, and that 1.8% number is up from around, I think it was 0.1% in 1980. In other words, this is an increasingly unequal society. The rich... The very rich are getting crazy rich.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
The rest of America is sort of flatlining in terms of real wage growth. Where is this all headed? I look at it as a young person, and I think about it because we're talking about the deficits and we're talking about what's due for young people in America.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Does the level of wealth inequality as a wealth manager at one of the top financial institutions in the world, does the level of wealth inequality in America concern you? And if things continue at the current clip, Where is this all going?
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Final question for me, Michael. A lot of young people listen to this show. I'm sure many who are listening would love to know more about you and your success and your career, how to be like Michael Semblist. What would be your number one piece of advice to a young person listening to this podcast? It could be about career. It also could be about life. How do we become successful?
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
So his diagnosis here is correct. We are seeing production moving into foreign nations. As usual, though, my view is his treatment is just god-awful. Let's hear your views on this move.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Michael Sanbus is the chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management, a global leader in investment management and private banking with $6 trillion of client assets under management worldwide. He is responsible for the development of market and investment insights across the firm's institutional funds and private banking businesses.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Michael joined JP Morgan in 1987. He's previously served as chief investment officer for the firm's global private bank and head strategist for emerging markets fixed income. You can discover more of his insights by reading Eye on the Market, his newsletter, or you can listen to his podcast by the same name, Eye on the Market. Michael, this was a real pleasure. Really appreciate you joining us.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Mia Silverio is our research lead. Isabella Kinsel is our research associate. Dan Shallan is our intern. Drew Burrows is our technical director. And Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Profiteer Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
If you like what you heard, give us a follow and join us for a fresh take on markets on Monday.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
If you want to save Hollywood, you need to figure out a way to make it cheaper to make these movies. And I don't know exactly how you do that, but it probably means something like what you were describing with your Netflix show in New Jersey, where there are rebates and tax incentives that make the economics make more sense. If you really want to save Hollywood, that's how you do it.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
But instead, what he's doing here is he's made the only viable economic model, which is foreign production, he's just gone and made it more expensive. which is only going to accelerate the death of Hollywood. So yes, maybe production will come back to America if these tariffs go through, but it's not going to make it cheaper. It's going to make it more expensive.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
There's a reason why production moved away. And who's going to bear the brunt of the price increases? I mean, maybe it'll be Hollywood, but if it's not Hollywood, it's consumers. It just means your monthly Netflix bill is going to go way up, your Max bill, your Hulu bill, whatever it is.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
And by the way, you made this point, but it's like the parallels with Apple, it's identical. It's like, oh my God, the iPhone price is going to go up. People are going to be upset. And then he concedes to Apple and he makes the exemption.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
That's right. Zero-sum game.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Yeah, it's what Ryan Peterson said. It's trade is a positive sum game. It's econ 101. These guys think it's zero sum. There are some certain zero sum games, such as dabbling in Trump coin. but the rest of the economy, if you're establishing real value, it's a positive sum game. So it just doesn't make any sense.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
So there's this saying in crypto, which is have fun being poor. If you need such a level of distraction that you can't figure out a way to save a little bit more money than you spend, if you're so bored by the phrase S&P 500, which is not that big of a deal and it's actually not that complicated, if you just do a tiny bit of Googling, my response to you is have fun being poor.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
That's what I would say to you. Fucking reading me for filth, bro. Eat that shit, Cam. It's the same thing that I would say to the people who supported Donald Trump, who thought they were going to reshore all these jobs into America. And now we've got tariffs, which is a tax on consumption, which is going to largely affect poor people. Have fun being poor. You were very good. Oh, thank you.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Appreciate that. Let's talk about OpenAI, which is now abandoning these plans to become a for-profit entity. That's the headline, at least. Just some context here. OpenAI, you might remember, it was originally a non-profit organization. It was sort of this research lab where they were investigating the impact of AGI.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
They eventually started building products and raising money, and then they changed their structure. And the way they did it they created this new for-profit subsidiary company that was still controlled by the nonprofit entity. But this subsidiary company, that was a for-profit that could focus on maximizing profits, maximizing shareholder value in the same way any other company would.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Now, as of last year, the plan was to completely detach from the non-profit structure. They wanted to cut ties with this non-profit entity and this for-profit subsidiary would become its own company. It would basically become a regular company. And that was the plan. And you might remember this was the contingency upon which some of these investors like SoftBank invested in their latest round.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Okay, so they're scrapping that plan. They are going to remain under the control of the nonprofit board. They're also turning the for-profit entity into what's known as a public benefit corporation or a PBC. This is basically just another term for a company that makes money, but also pursues some sort of social goal. So I think this is all a giant distraction, a giant head fake.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
I think it's all meaningless language. I can get into that. But before I do that, Scott, your reactions.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
The only substantive change is what you just said about getting rid of the capped profit structure, which they talked about for a long time. They said, we're not a normal company because you can only make 100x return, which is hilarious because 100x return is just gigantic. So it's not really saying much, but they're getting rid of that now. And so actually it's an unlimited profit.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
It's just a regular company now. So that's the only substantive change here. So I love what you say there, nomenclature engineering. That's exactly what this is. This is so meaningless. and just such a load of bullshit. The fact that we're even reporting on it and saying that they're scrapping their for-profit plans, that's not true at all. Of course they're going ahead with being a for-profit.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
Just a few reasons why it's meaningless. One, Public benefit corporation, as you say, this is a seriously bullshit concept. It's the same as ESG in the sense that it's all talk, no action. It's this new legal entity that was formed in the 2010s. I think it should never have existed. But you basically just say that you are pursuing a social goal.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
and you show a little bit of evidence that you're trying to do that, some annual report saying, look, we're trying to benefit society. And if you do that, then you qualify legally as a PBC, a public benefit corporation. Any company could qualify. If Exxon wanted to be a public benefit corporation, it could be. They could just explain how they're fighting for climate change, whatever it is.
Prof G Markets
The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
So that's the first thing. The second thing is they're getting rid of the cap profit structure. The third thing that I would point out, as I've said before, SoftBank said they would cut their investment if OpenAI didn't become a full for-profit by the end of the year. So I was very interested to see when this news came out what SoftBank would do.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
It's simple. Our economy shrinks. Our costs go up. Our exports go down. I mean, tariffs are taxes on the consumer, so... Whenever Donald Trump makes a really fucking stupid decision, they're like, oh, no, no, no, we can't defend it intellectually. So we're just going to say it's 4D chess and he gets it and we don't. And that latest argument is, oh, it's a negotiating ploy. This is just dumb.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
And it costs money to spin up these tariffs and then spin them down and we lose credibility. It's economic warfare against unbelievably big economies that have been great. allies.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I think in economic history, we're going to say our entry into Southeast Asia, our invasion of Iraq, Brexit, and these tariffs will be seen as the biggest self-inflicted wounds in history unless they are merely rectified. And even then, it's just like you look stupid. Well, I'm I'm leaving you. I'm leaving you. Just kidding. I'm back. Well, OK, that takes a toll on the relationship.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Your fault. Totally your fault. No, not my fault. Do you not understand the corporate world? When your boss makes a bad joke, you laugh hilariously no matter. Oh my, oh, it's so, it's funny because it's true. My job is to protect my boss. I don't want you to humiliate yourself in front of our audience. Let's talk a little bit about private members clubs, which is my new hobby.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
episodes of net worth and chill are released every wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on youtube by the way i absolutely love it into i think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
You want to know the story of my life, Ed?
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I finally get the ultimate hookup. The best room in Europe, I don't know if it's in Europe, best room in London is Chiltern Firehouse. They have a bar there that is so well done. The DJ is on fire and they have total obnoxious face control. And I wouldn't even go there. There was no way I could get in.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
And I went with some friends and this nice woman came up and started talking to me, recognized me from the pod. She's like, I'm starting a podcast. Would you be willing to have coffee? And I said, yes. We had coffee. We became friendly. And she said, here's my WhatsApp. Whenever you want to come in, here's my number. I'm like, oh, my God. I am Charlie from Willy Wonka.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I have just gotten the golden ticket. And for about the last six months, whenever I was with friends and they'd be like, oh, wouldn't it be great? Let's go to Chilton Press. Does anyone know anyone? Does anyone have a hookup? And I'm like, no. Oh, no problem. I'll handle it. No problem. I'll handle it. And boom, right in. Hello, Scott. Loved it there. Loved it there.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Hot people everywhere, which is not easy in the UK. It's not easy. It's not like New York or LA where they just let in a bunch of Uber drivers who are looking for their SAG-AFTRA card and they're hot. No, it's not easy. You are definitely like you've got some crazy pig hunting for truffles in the middle of some forest somewhere. I don't know how to come up with that analogy.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Anyway, the best room I would bet in the UK. And I am totally finally fucking hooked up. And you know what happened? Burned down.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
And I'm not exaggerating. No less than a dozen people are like, sent me video footage and they're like, are you okay? Yeah. I'm not exaggerating. I think it burned down on a Thursday. So sorry for your loss, Scott. No one died, so we can joke about it. Whatever. Andrew Balazs is already super fucking rich, and the insurance will pay for it. So people—I'm not exaggerating.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
No less than a dozen people send me video footage, and they're like, are you all right? I was there the night before. I was there at the closing party. We just didn't know it was the closing party. Anyways, the new place is a place called Soho Muse.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
This is why the audience comes here. They just can't get enough of Scott. Anyways, so... So I hear the new hot place is so amused. So I call them. Oh, no problem. I'm like a global member and I never go. And they're like, oh, hello. No, we haven't gone out with invites to the, you know, and I'm like, so I can't come tonight. Like, no, not yet.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
So even the Soho House has said we have so many non-aspirational members to try and feed the public company earnings call that we've had to create a new Soho House that's that Soho House members don't have access to. So here I am, back to who I really am, and that is not able to get into the hot place. The world, the order of the universe has been restored.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I am now again on the outside looking in, Ed.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
You'll have plenty of the where at all.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Isn't it? I mean, at least that's what society wants us to think. Gotta get a Birkin, gotta get a home, you know.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Russia is a fairly small economy. Russia's economy is smaller than Canada. So you want to kiss the ass, you want to give a lap dance to a small economy and alienate these dependable prosperous relationships with economies in Europe that combined are 15 to 17 times the size of the gas station posing as an economy called Russia. So this is incredibly stupid. Now, what could go right?
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I love what Josh Brown said. What could go right on when he co-hosted with you? These nations are bigger than Russia. Spain is almost as big as Russia. Combined, they are a bigger economic force.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
And quite frankly, they've become lazy and dependent upon a rich uncle who is no longer, who's gone fucking senile, has become emotionally and mentally unstable, and them recognizing they have to fight their own fights, but also waking up and realize, you know what? I'm pretty goddamn strong and dangerous myself.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
If they massively increase their military budgets, which I think they're going to do, and start taking leadership cues from their own leaders, and they unify, get rid of all the arguing and the bullshit, and they become a union again, there is absolutely no reason why they can't push back on Russia themselves.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
In addition, I think this is a starting gun, and this was one of our predictions at the end of last year before I even knew this, for European stocks. If you look at military spending... It's expensive in the short run, but there is the potential for dramatic technology spillover that realizes or is registered in huge economic gains in the markets.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Apple and Google are basically adjuncts or thick layers of innovation put on top of an innovation that was developed during military or war spending. GPS, Apple is basically GPS technology with a consumer layer on it that was developed during the Cold War such that we could put an ICBM in Putin's pocket within 10 feet of its designated target.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
If you look at the internet, for God's sakes, it was the US military decided, a defense department, decided we needed a nodeless means of communication for after the nuclear attack from Russia. That was DARPA, which became the internet. So I believe Europe is going to be a union again.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I believe they will massively increase the military spending, which will result in stimulus and possible technology spillover. So I think there is a real silver lining here, and I am super excited to about European getting the jolt it needed to move out of the house and realizing that they've got, they should start commanding the space they occupy.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Today's number, $55,000. That's how much a lifetime membership costs at Miami's New Harbor Club, which offers a private speakeasy and weekly backgammon tournaments. Ed, what's the difference between a garbanzo bean and a chickpea? I think I know this one. What? I'm not going to pay a garbanzo to bean on my face.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
The idea that we are going to increase our deficits such that we can artificially raise the prices of an asset class, the majority of which is controlled like every other asset class by very wealthy people, including the head of a VC fund that is the advisor to Trump, this is pure corruption in its most naked form. And
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
People will say, and I got to give it to them, well, the Democrats have just been doing this slowly, more elegantly and more covertly with lobbyists. Trump has just decided, fuck that. I'm just going to steal right in the light of day. But that is it is insane that we have an individual who is the AI or the crypto czar.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
encouraging the president to spend your money in the form of deficits, increased deficits, such that he can dramatically increase his wealth and the wealth of other people my age that have the money or have already invested in these assets. This is kleptocracy meets intergenerational theft.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
That is a direct enrichment. That's like saying I don't buy Google keywords, but I own Google, so I'm not directly benefiting off of the government buying 10 billion.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Look, I think David is an intelligent guy. When I've seen clips of him on YouTube, I think he makes interesting points. He and I have different politics, but I think he's at least intellectually honest about his politics. But he's essentially part of this kleptocracy that, wink, wink, I'll become your AI czar, and I'm going to use the taxpayer purse to enrich myself.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
And that used to be not allowed. Right. The more existential stupidity here is that you are essentially trying to come up with another default currency. And the carrier strike force that is the invisible carrier strike force that is probably more devastating than even the S.S. Gerald Ford carrier strike force is the U.S. dollar.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
The fact that we can track the flows and control the flows of the default currency globally, and it is a Very difficult for anyone to do business when we put sanctions on them and we get to see where money is going and coming is such an incredible advantage. And we are purposely ourselves trying to undermine the acceptance and ubiquity of the default currency by creating a second with crypto.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Just laugh and tell me how hilarious I am. Not when the delivery is completely wrong. Wait, it's, I won't pay someone 50 bucks to garbanzo on my bean, but I will pay 50 bucks for a chick to pee on me. You get it?
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I mean, OK, measles, surrender, and just fucking stupid is the new American brand. Your thoughts, Ed?
Prof G Markets
A Nightmare Tariff Scenario for the Auto Industry — ft. Tim Higgins
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
A Nightmare Tariff Scenario for the Auto Industry — ft. Tim Higgins
Now is the time to buy. I hope you have plenty of the wherewithal.
Prof G Markets
A Nightmare Tariff Scenario for the Auto Industry — ft. Tim Higgins
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup. Episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday.
Prof G Markets
A Nightmare Tariff Scenario for the Auto Industry — ft. Tim Higgins
Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube. By the way, I absolutely love Vivian too. I think she does a great job.
Prof G Markets
A Nightmare Tariff Scenario for the Auto Industry — ft. Tim Higgins
I think the insecurity in the market right now is probably going to give them a reason to hit the sanity button and either get different terms or better terms or not do this investment. I guess my prediction is I'm not sure this round is going to close on the terms initially reported in the press because it hasn't closed yet. And it just feels to me this is too rich.
Prof G Markets
A Nightmare Tariff Scenario for the Auto Industry — ft. Tim Higgins
If you're a limited partner in SoftBank... Basically, Masayoshi-san has tried to convince you that within five years, this will be one of the 10 most valuable companies in the world because it's going to have to have a trillion dollar plus market cap to justify the kinds of returns for this type of risk. I think that is a difficult argument to make with any level of certainty right now.
Prof G Markets
What to Buy When the Tech Sector is On Sale — ft. Mark Mahaney
Free your team from expense reports today. Switch your business to Ramp.com. Behind every good company, there is a vision that guides and unifies a powerful team. And Trinet wants to empower that vision with purpose-driven HR solutions to support the people who make it all happen.
Prof G Markets
What to Buy When the Tech Sector is On Sale — ft. Mark Mahaney
You can join innovative and purpose-driven companies like Good Culture, Zymo Research, and Van Leeuwen Ice Cream, and more who choose Trinet to help handle a full range of HR solutions, from payroll to compliance to access to benefits. so they can stay focused on what matters most. Incredible starts here. Learn more at Trinet.com. That's T-R-I-N-E-T dot com. Trinet. People matter.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
When I was, I moved to New York in 2000 and I didn't know anybody. And almost right away, I made good friends with a couple guys, and I said, oh, you got to come to St. Parts for the holidays. I'm like, yeah, I'm down. And we knew enough people that knew enough people that were billionaires that owned boats, and they would always have these crazy parties.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And this one guy who was always on the boat, he was this really handsome guy with great fashion and always had the hottest women around him. His name was Andrew. And Andrew was rolling with all these billionaires. And I remember seeing him, or I had dinner with him at LA once, and he rolled up in this electric blue Ferrari. And he was pitching me. He said, I have a fund.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I try and find value stocks or something. I was barely listening. And he said, and I'm giving 22% returns last year. And my... It might bullshit me. A, I didn't have much money back then, but I'm sort of like, yeah, this is way too exotic for me. But he had raised, and he listed all these billionaires in St. Barts that he had raised money from, and I knew most of these guys by name.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And it ends up that what he was doing was taking money and giving money back to previous investors on redemption, claiming they got 20% returns when he was using the money as his own personal kitty. That is a Ponzi scheme. taking investors' money to pretend you're giving returns back to older investors, hoping new investors will see these false returns and put in more money.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And that's what Madoff did. I don't think it's fair to call this a Ponzi scheme. What I think this is, is a massively levered bet. Because at some point, So they're buying Bitcoin, and then they're borrowing against that Bitcoin, so they're levering up, and then they're borrowing as much as they can on that. They're just massively levering.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
You sound good. Sound fine. That's good. Okay. Okay, enough of that. Back to me. So last night... So I don't know if you heard, but Chiltern Firehouse is burned down. So daddy needs... And by the way, I'm pretty sure that I... Oh, I think I told you this. I was borderline hypertensive, which means I almost had high blood pressure. I was 140 over 80.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
He's making a hugely levered bet on an asset, and people have decided it's a What you're saying is ultimately over time, I think, an asset really isn't an asset unless it's producing some sort of underlying cash flows, that it's not a security.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
You're going to get huge returns if Bitcoin goes up because he's levered the shit out of the Bitcoin he's bought. And it's going to go way down because he's levered the shit out of the Bitcoin. But he's not taking money and falsely claiming returns.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
The notion that people are diving too aggressively into the deep end of a pool in a market that that is overvalued, and then massively levering up. Leverage is how smart people go broke, right? And as we've discussed on this show, we're big believers that the U.S. market has become too expensive and it makes sense to de-lever or perhaps exit.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And I uploaded all my results, my urine, my blood, all this shit, and basically everything came back. And I uploaded it into ChatGBT, and it said, okay, dumb shit, drink less. And so... I just did my blood pressure last night, and it's 127 over 74-something, which means I'm back to, you know, the fucking rock star superhero I've always been.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And also, to be fair, everyone thought Bitcoin was a hedge against markets. It's not. It's ended up being much more correlated to the markets than anyone had anticipated, right? And the Bitcoin maximalist, or whatever the term is, would claim that, oh, this is the perfect hedge against other assets. Well, actually, no. It's pretty tightly correlated.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
If the market pukes tomorrow, there's a 70%, 80%, 90% chance that Bitcoin goes down. So I think your argument is buyer beware because this is a levered bet that's levered to a market that's already bubblicious. This is like the pop here could be really, really loud. And Michael did say that you have to be able to survive this volatility. This volatility is massive.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
The one thing you said that I really liked was you said, you know, fire is dangerous, but if you put fire in a car, it can move the car. I thought that was very sexy the way you said that.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I think you're a little jelly.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I will meet you in the comments. section. We'll see what people say. Yeah, we'll meet in the comment section. And I can tell you what the comments will say based on who owns Bitcoin and who doesn't. Yeah, exactly. Are we just going to be 50-50?
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
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Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
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Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And I was trying to figure out what's changed, and I'm convinced that my blood pressure has come down 13 points because Chiltern Firehouse has burned down. I would go there twice a week. I'd have four to five makers in ginger. So that's 10 makers in ginger. Four to five each trip? Yeah. Oh, yeah. Daddy goes deep in the pain. Oh, wow. I told you I'm a better version of me, a little bit fucked up.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube by the way I absolutely love Vivian too I think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
So your first point's the right one. It's almost comical that they've called for them to declassify their share structure. Good luck with that. Now, I think what they'd want to do is show up and say, we have a huge stake here and we want to help you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
The thing about activism that I learned is that typically when you go into a board of a company, you find out that you're not as smart as you think and they're not as dumb as you'd hoped. And I don't do hostile plays anymore because... What I find you want to do is you want to show up with a big stake and say, we're here to help. We're smart people.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And we want to be assets and help you brainstorm and maybe even provide more capital, provide introductions, brainstorm strategically. I find that's just a much more effective way to try and build shareholder value. And activism, and one of the reasons I was drawn to it because it suited my personality, it attracts a disproportionate number of assholes. And they come out guns blazing.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And what they fail to realize is that the people they're trying to embarrass publicly with their poison pen letters, unless it's really egregious, are humans and will circle the wagons and defend it even if your points are right. So my approach around this stuff evolved to, okay, we're big shareholders. We want to work with you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
You've seen me fucked up. I'm nice. No, I agree. Yeah, and so that's 10 makers and ginger a week. So I'm basically drinking a half a bottle of makers. So I'm convinced, and I'm glad no one was hurt, I'm convinced the reason my blood pressure has come down is because Chiltern Firehouse burned down. That makes a lot of sense, yeah. I'm trying to find the new place. Last night I went to Soho Muse.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Our default kind of operating system is to be great shareholders and great partners. But if in a year or two years, you're either stonewalling us or just making stupid decisions, we're going to go gangster on you. But we're here to help. We're going to try and get along. I find that's a more effective, what I call forceful yet dignified approach to this.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Now, Lyft is an example of a number two that has not been able to establish differentiation. And it has been a shitty place because Dara has made some really deft moves around acquisition of food delivery. He's just done a really good job. And they've kind of run away with it. And since the IPO, Lyft has lost 85% of its value, while Uber shares are up nearly 80%. Year-to-date, Lyft is down 11%.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Uber's up 18%. Uber trades at 3.6 times sales, and Lyft trades just at 0.9, half its historical average. So this company... is struggling. It doesn't have the scale and it doesn't really have a niche to kind of focus on and sort of send a brand identity. And the example I would use is a car pulls up, it has an Uber light, and then I see it turn off its Uber light and it's a Lyft light.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
So, okay, if there's no differentiation in driver or equipment, That means, okay, and Uber's got scale. That means the only thing Lyft can do is compete on price. And if you're hiring the same driver in the same cars, how do you compete on price? That's just a downward spiral. You don't have the scale. So Lyft needs to find a strategy. Now, what should they do? I would not circle the wagons.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I would invite these guys in. I don't know how much of the company they bought, but I find the best thing to do on an incumbent board is to say, the best way to shut up an activist is just to put them on your board, to say, come on in, the water's fine. And put them on your board if they've purchased a lot of shares, and then they have to shut up because of Reg D or insider disclosure rules.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
See if they have good ideas, listen to them, and get them kind of on your side, if you will. So that's how I would handle the activists. The tougher problem is what the fuck does Lyft do? And my view is they have really two choices here. The first is to pursue a sale. And I could see a big automobile company thinking, all right, we want to go vertical and we want to have an offering.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
We're Tata Motors. We want to have Range Rovers and Jaguars everywhere. Or we feel like we're going to take our production cars that aren't selling. Maybe that'd be bad for the brand. I'd have to think about it. But we want to go vertical and be in ride hailing. The other thing, I mean, they either got to do a sale or they've got to find a niche. So for example- I love wheelie.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
That's a ride hailing service here in London. And it's basically, there's Uber, Uber black, and then there's Uber lux and wheelie is Uber super lux, beautiful brand new S classes, suited driver, super clean. Other cars look brand new. It's just a different level. And they've gone after that niche and I'm sure they charge more and it's worth it. And it's aspirational.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And I hardly ever use Uber in London. Now I use, I use wheelie. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I told you about this, right? Last I heard, you haven't been yet. Is this your first time? I went last night. So fucking Soho House decides, okay, we've let in too many riffraff at Elson. Ha ha. And we need a place for the players. Scott Galloway. Small cap player. I called them and they're like, no, we're sending out invitations slowly to members. I'm like, what the fuck? I'm a member.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And she said, no, it doesn't matter. So anyways, I called someone who knew someone who knew someone. Went last night. Nice. Not Chiltern, but still pretty nice. And definitely like you could tell it's sort of a little bit of another level. And tonight I'm going to this place called Kensington Gardens, which is, I guess, also a new hotspot. So I'll soon be hypertensive again. Interesting. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for watching. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
What's going on with your drinking?
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
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Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
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Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
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GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
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Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Oh, really? To acquiesce to the Trump administration? Perhaps. Someone from the administration come up to him and say, okay, now put your elbows on the table, you fucking coward. Anyways, sorry. Go ahead. Go ahead. That's all I have to tell you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
So I would wish I'd taken more English, more biology, an understanding of history, I think is really important. And also try and be, and this isn't a class, try and be as social as possible. Because A, it's an unbelievable opportunity to develop friendships and relationships. And at Google, when they put out a job opening, They get 200 CVs in minutes and they shut it down.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And then they invite in 20 people. And 70% of the time, the person who gets the job is someone who has a friend at the firm that is advocating for them. And so what is the easiest way or likely the way you're gonna improve your odds the most of getting a job is having a lot of friends. How did you get a job, Ed? You had a best friend whose mom knew me. And they love you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Literally, Joanna Coles called me and said, you'd be stupid not to hire this kid. That's what she said. She'd be like, I think her words were, I am not getting off this phone until you commit, until you promise. I really owe my life to Joanna Coles. That you are hiring my son's friend, Ed Elson. I'm like, and I said, well, what does he want to do? She's like, it doesn't matter, you fool.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
What a legend. Yeah, but it works, right? So I get the sense, you know, I mean, you've got a lot of flaws, but I get the sense. I get the sense you have really good relationships. You take your friendships seriously. And that's how you got this job, is you got someone in your life who just really cares for you and basically told his mom, help Ed get a job, or Ed...
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Ed said he knows this guy or likes this guy. Can you call him? I heard you know him. You want to get a job. You got to be good. Learn the basics. I like the sciences. I like communication and storytelling. But the way you get a great job and the way you change the trajectory of your professional career is relationships.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And while you're in college, it is a great opportunity to establish a lot of really like great, deep, meaningful relationships.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
The best programmers understand logic, and they're almost like internal construction managers. They're great project managers. And also, someone's going to have to give these LLM prompts and build the system. So there's still going to be a need for them. It's just like anything else that... It gets digitized when technology comes into a sector.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
It usually takes the top 10 percent and they earn three times as much and the bottom 90 make less or aren't there. And I think that's happening in that field. The correlate or the.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
resonance here is on day after tomorrow i'm headed to the u.s with my oldest son for a college tour and we've been thinking about you know there's there's a opportunity set of 100 colleges and we're going to seven of them in five days and we've been thinking a lot about it and i said all right what are your criteria and he's like you know i want a place with a great biology department he's
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Buying a house has long been considered the best way to build wealth and move into true adulting.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
That's what he came up with because he's really interested in biology and he has some real aptitude for it. And he said, what are your criteria? I'm like, I just want a small number of things. I want you to go somewhere where I think you're just going to have an amazing time because I had an amazing time in college.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And if I could give my kids anything, I just want them to have the same amazing time I had. I want you to learn about yourself. I want you to learn about others. I would love for you to acquire some skills, specifically some skills around storytelling, communication. But more than anything, more than anything, what I would hope for you is that you experience, enjoy, endure a ton of relationships.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I just want you at basketball games, in classes with 400 people, on campus all day long, in tutoring people, getting tutored, hanging out, drinking with friends, playing ultimate frisbee, playing intramural sports. I just want you bumping off people all day long and creating just a raft of relationships and friendships. That's what I'm looking for. And so we're going to all these kind of
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
land-grant schools that are big public schools with football teams and intramurals and fraternities and sororities. I don't know if they'll do that, but tons of student clubs where they just feel like, quite frankly, like college. And I think a lot of parents feel this way. I think a lot of, if you've looked at the applications trends, the Southern schools are booming and
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And quite frankly, it's like how collegey and how fun do they sound? We want our kid to go have fun. Like schools like Wake Forest are booming. Their applications are booming. SMU, Vanderbilt is now more difficult to get into than many Ivy League colleges because a lot of parents and kids have said, I want my kid to have a college experience, full stop.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
It's like anything else. You got to be good. Being intelligent, being hardworking, that's table stakes in this economy. The differentiator is the depth and number of relationships you have.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
It's not so much as a prediction, but an observation. We have this clown car called the cabinet right now. And I just think this is going to start to hit the economy. Strategy is two questions or one key question. What can we do that's really hard? And the biggest mistake people make in strategy is that they think they're punching a speed bag and people aren't going to punch back.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And every nation we have levied tariffs against, they have levied reciprocal tariffs. They have punched back. And some are getting really smart. EU and Canada, I love this, have decided to pick products where they're going to put especially onerous disproportionate tariffs on products that originate from red states.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And the whole world is sort of deciding now, including our allies, that they have this common enemy called this clown fucking car called the United States. And there's just no way that that doesn't begin to hit our economy. And it's dangerous to make predictions about the economy. I just don't see there's any way. That this doesn't impact us in the back half of the year.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I think he has dug himself too deep. And even if you were to say tariffs are off, just kidding. Nations are reconfiguring their supply chain and it's going to start to show up in Q3 and Q4 numbers in some. I'll just say, I think we're headed for recession in back half of the year.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
So two-thirds of Fortune 500 companies, 67%, are incorporated in Delaware. And that generates, get this, $2.2 billion in corporate franchise taxes annually. That's almost a third of the state's budget. And I would imagine it's really high margin revenue. And as you mentioned, Musk, they basically denied or voided Elon Musk's $56 billion Tesla compensation package despite shareholder approval.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Okay, the handbag you can probably manage without. But what about a house? Surely that's actually good, right? We're going to find out this week on Explain It To Me. New episodes every Sunday morning, wherever you get your podcasts.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And you can go back on the tape. We said, whenever this happened, six or 12 months ago, Bad decision, bad board, but they get to make this decision. And that for the courts to overturn it was a judgment call on what is quote-unquote fair compensation. And if you want to talk about compensation in America around CEOs, you just shouldn't use the word fair.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And in capitalism, the owner of the asset or the majority of the assets get to nominate directors who get to decide correctly or incorrectly the compensation of the CEO. And the moment someone weighs in and starts using words like fair or unfair and overrides the decisions of the people voted in by the owners of the company to make these decisions, In my view, you have government overreach.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
So I think they screwed up here. I think intrastate competition is a good thing. I think other states, in this instance, Texas, saying, okay, we want to compete with Delaware for companies to list here and offer them lower fees. The problem is there is a social good there. to some of this around the disclosure requirements and how a board behaves that is a social good.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And I worry that there's a race to the bottom around governance that ultimately hurts retail investors. What are your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Today is number 1461. That's how many beers there are in a Canadian brewery's presidential pack, offering one beer for every day of Trump's presidency. Ed, what's the difference between America and Canada?
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I bet if you surveyed Americans on, if you said, what comes to mind when you say autonomous driving, the most common answer would be Tesla. And the reality is, and you brought this to my attention, Waymo is just miles ahead of Tesla. Tesla doesn't look very close to a competent self-driving or autonomous vehicle. And I took a Waymo six months ago in LA, and I was kind of blown away by it.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I mean, they're up and running. They have 200,000 paid rides weekly across Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin. I love the idea of autonomous driving. I don't... I'm trying to think how elitist this is going to sound. I don't like the drivers. I don't want any conversation. I assume they're going to take me the wrong way, which is probably not very nice. I get mad at them.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I tend to get drivers who think they know the back roads, and I'm like, it drives me fucking crazy. I don't want them to ask me about the temperature, if I want to stream my radio. I'm an awful person. I don't... I don't want to talk to anybody.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Yeah, I'm wondering what my star rating is. My general approach to service is I'm not easy to deal with, but I tip big. That's my approach. Which, that's pretty obnoxious.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Yeah. First word douche, last name bag.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
America has really nice neighbors.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
The question I would put to you is they just raised... 5.6 billion or last year, they raised 5.6 billion, I think at a pre of 40 and a post of 45. So at revenues of $50 to $75 million, that means they're trading somewhere between, I don't know, 70 and 90 times revenues. Would you invest in Waymo at 70 to 90 times revenues right now?
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I'm feeling very Canadian. I'm feeling super Canadian. Actually, I don't know if you know this, but Canada both passed same-sex marriage and now marijuana, which means actually they're interpreting the Bible correctly. Leviticus 20.13, if a man lies with another man, he should be stoned.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
This feels like, if they can maintain this, this feels like a 2027 IPO that'll be pretty big.
Prof G Markets
The Trump Fold & Tesla’s Brand Death
We need to know what he was doing in China and Russia while his father was vice president and or while his father was preparing to become the president. This is corruption at its core. Folks, this is what people hate about the swamp. This is a part of how Donald Trump won in the first place, saying that we're going to get rid of these sweetheart deals.
Prof G Markets
The Trump Fold & Tesla’s Brand Death
We're going to make sure that we clean up the axis of power in a place like Washington, D.C.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
How did JFK break his arm?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I mean, think about any business that said, okay, for every city, there can only be two software companies. Right. And the governing body ruled by the owners of these software companies get to decide who the entrants are or are not.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And then if they basically have one league, that means you extract rents from the players where you're the only game in town and you get to decide how much money the maker don't make. So it's – and it's especially bad in tennis where the players command only 18% of the total revenue generated by the sport compared to basketball where the players get 50% and soccer get – they get 61%. So –
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
By helping Jack off a horse. Jack off a horse. Break your arm.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I love this. And I love that Liv came in and basically challenged the monopoly of the PGA. So I think competition is a good thing. But this is a perfect example of corruption with this veneer of benign goodwill because people have such affection for sports. But these are monopolies and the rents being charged to ticket holders or consumers are
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And advertisers who have a limited supply of games, et cetera, and to the players themselves, bottom line, it's corrupt. I love this ad. I love it.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Yeah. Yeah. I'm reaching. I'm reaching.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
You may be right, because I don't know what the kind of established law is, but you want to talk about corruption. Start talking about the international bodies that don't even have to abide by anyone. They live in this kind of nether netherland where there's no essentially they're not subject to laws of any one nation. And they've established such monopolies.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And people have tried to take them on, and it hasn't worked. Ted Turner started something called the Goodwill Games, trying to start a competitive. My big idea when the World Cup was going through all of this nonsense, I do work with Nike, Adidas. And I brought up with both of them, I said, why wouldn't you basically start a nonprofit and host a competitor or start a competitor at the World Cup?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And just give all the money back to the, you know, try and break even, but basically try and root out the corruption that about six, eight years ago, the corruption at UEFA went just absolutely insane with paying off local officials. And it became about bribes, what host country got to host the World Cup.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
So anyways, I would like to see, I hope this works, but I trust that you've done the homework here and don't think that you think the courts are going to side with the league.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
You know what it is. I had that same anxiety that when my partner asked me, you know, wakes up, it's like, oh, something. And I'm like, happy birthday anniversary. It's like, okay.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
There's just no getting around it. BYD has surpassed Tesla on almost every level in terms of tech. And Tesla sales in China have been cut in half in February. They're down 49%, while BYD's rose 161%. Their latest vehicle is 75% less expensive, so four BYDs for the price of one Tesla.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
This feels like it sort of is a metaphor for China in general, and that is in the last three months, China has kind of evidence or indicated or a metaphor for the resurgence is BYD. A year to date, BYD stock is up 64% and it trades at 33 times earnings, while Tesla is down 38%, but still trades at 166 times earnings or said differently. And I love this stat.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
The market values each Tesla car sold at 425,000 in market cap, and each car from BYD, even after this run-up, for $39,000 a car. So even despite the fact that BYD's stock has skyrocketed and Tesla's has come down, I mean, think about this. The market still values Tesla at 10 times the value per car produced BYD, and BYD is growing.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
So one of these, it would appear either BYD is dramatically, and this is the question, is BYD dramatically undervalued or is Tesla dramatically overvalued? And of course, I believe the answer is yes.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Oh, my gosh. Ed, that's great because you get your driver's license this year, right? Yeah, exactly.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Constantly. The first thing I say about you when people ask me about you is I'm like, everyone said, people say very nice things about you. And I would say, you know, he's 25. And people are like, I know. That's so amazing. So, wow, 26. That's not as impressive.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube by the way I absolutely love Vivintu I think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I think this is overdue. And just to call balls and strikes, I think that this is a benefit that we've derived from the Trump administration. I don't like the way they're going about it, but You know, for a long time, everyone has been saying that Japan and Germany and Europe have been freeloading or freeriding off of the military umbrella and expenditure of the United States.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Advice to you at 26? Try and get a great shape. I think every man under the age of 30 should be a fucking monster. You've still got a ton of testosterone and great double twitch muscle and great bone structure. And you're going to spend the rest of your life from 35 on just trying to maintain. So get to a really good place physically.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And finally, it looks like they're stepping up. And I do think that that is a direct function of Trump's withdrawal or basically saying you can no longer count on us. I mean, this will be good, I think, for the German economy because they're outstanding in manufacturing. So you would think that they would make great weapon systems. And I like the idea.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I think Germany is a well-run, well-governed place. And like I said, I think defense spending could be the stimulus. And also, I'm trying to play this trade. I think the Europe and defense trade is going to be a big one. And I've just recently made an investment in a European aviation company that I think has some defense opportunities. And I'm doing it based on two things.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I'm hoping to get sort of a double whammy of capital flows into Europe and also the increase in defense spending.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Say yes to everything. Invest in relationships. Try and establish as many friendships. It gets harder to establish friendships as you get older. So try and establish as many friendships as you can. And in the meantime, work around the clock. Try and get professional trajectory such that you can have economic security by the time you're in your 40s and 50s and spend more time with your family.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
The rivers are reversing. European equity funds registered their largest four-week inflows in nearly 10 years. And that's the most significant rotation out of U.S. into European equities since 1999. And a B of A survey showed that 60% of investors expect stronger European growth in the next year, up 9% from just two months ago. So 9% of people thought Europe was going to grow. Now it's 60%.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
The thesis I would have going into this is that they're estimating or they're proposing that the European Union is going to go from 1.9% of GDP on defense to 3%, a $19 trillion economy. You're talking about $150 to $200 billion in additional capex that the market wasn't expecting just six months ago. And that's annual. And where's that going to go?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And what companies are going to be in front of that tsunami of capital? And not only that, with the tension between the U.S. and Europe, it used to be, okay, Europe, increase your defense spending. And by the way, please buy our submarines and our missiles. And there's no fucking way they're doing that now. Germany might say, in order to build these systems, we might buy some parts from U.K.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
and Italian companies or French companies. But no, we're not going to buy from the U.S. Sorry, guys. It'll be an intra-European stimulus. I think it's really fascinating. I'm also quite optimistic about it.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I like the fact that Europe, what I think is kind of the home of a lot of progressive liberal thought and really has been kind of a beacon of light for, I don't know, philosophy and democracy and kind of modern civilization. I'd like to see them get their time in the sun outside of just Zara and LVMH.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Any mistakes you made at 26 that I should avoid? I made a lot. I think my biggest mistake was I wasn't as kind as I should have been. I looked at relationships as a transaction if I wasn't getting as much attention. I exited the relationship. I saw my employees.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I started companies from the age of 27 as kind of a transaction where I thought if I'm not getting more value out of them than I'm paying, I would fire them. Well, you've had a massive turnaround on that. Yeah. Now I'm like, no, it's just the wrong role. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I came of professional age in the Bay Area in the 90s, and there was this general zeitgeist that if you were talented and nice, it meant you were talented. But if you were talented and an asshole, it meant you were Steve Jobs. It meant you were a genius. And there was this terrible... zeitgeist or cultural norm that being an asshole somehow indicated that you were super talented.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. . . . . . ., the, P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P, gener a. , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , a el...
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And I adopted that. I was never mean, but I could have been a lot kinder professionally with people. And also personally, I looked at my relationships as a transaction, not as like, how do I How do I end up on the right side of the ledger? And then something I did right was I spent a ton of time with my mom. And I know that sounds sort of lame, but I was very close to my mom.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
in a high-rise on the beach in South Beach, and we've branded the Almond Residences, and we can charge $12 million for it because they get hotel amenities and the branding, and the owner, when he or she is not there, can put it back into the rental pool, and they rent it out, and they split the revenue. The owner gets 50%, and the brand gets 50%.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
So I get someone else to finance the construction of something, ridiculously overpay for it. And then it continues to make revenue for me because of the brand. I mean, this really is a lesson in the power of brands, a lesson in the power of demographic trends, and a lesson in kind of business models around you don't want to be in the business of owning the capital.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
We spent a lot of time together. She constantly came, stayed with me. I constantly stayed with her. And that was, you know, I'm an only child. So that was very rewarding. I'm really glad I did that. That's about it.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
You want to be in the business of managing it and taking revenue off of the top.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Just to keep it real, I want to talk about a couple other hotel stories. When I was right out of business school, I started a company called Profit, and we did consulting, and we would just take any engagement. And I took an engagement with a pager company helping them figure out their customer service, and it was in Minneapolis. And I went with my friend Lee Lotus.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And it was, I remember it because it was the day of the Clinton-Bush-Perot debate. And we got a hotel for 39 bucks a night, I think at the Minneapolis airport. And we had to go out and try and buy nose plugs or some like weird Vaseline to put under our, or weird scent to put under our noses because it stank so badly of smoke.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
It literally felt like someone had fallen asleep and been burned alive by the smoke. And then the other one was I had a client, I think it was Roots or some Canadian company in Montreal, and it was my own company. We're a small business, so I think it was like 70 Canadian. And I checked in, and it was 1993, and whatever, I was your age, so the first thing I do, I settle in and I turn on porn.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Yeah. And it's not working, so I call down to the front desk. I'm like, the TV's not working. So this Asian woman comes up. It's the White Lotus scene again. Yeah, it turns on the TV, and of course, the porn comes up, and it's like going in and out. So she sits there and starts banging on the TV, and occasionally the porn comes in, and it comes out, comes in, comes out. Were you not ashamed?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Oh, it was fucking humiliating. It was like crazy embarrassing. And I remember thinking, and then this couple, this family of like five is looking for the room. They come into my room and start going, where's room 308? It's my porn is coming on and off my TV. She's banging on the TV. And I looked at the couch. I remember the exact moment I looked at the couch and it was covered in plastic.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And I thought, this is where people come to kill themselves. This is that kind of place. She said, I want out. I can't fill this void in my chest. I'm going to go check into this hotel. Anyway, so I've seen hotels from all ends of the spectrum. I'm sorry, what was the question, Ed? What was the question?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Look, I believe in a really aggressive inheritance tax. I don't believe in dynastic wealth. One, it's bad for society. So rich kids get into the best schools and also inherit the money so they can start businesses. And there's a myth that the middle class is a naturally occurring organism. It isn't. It requires additional redistribution of income.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
You're at a point right now, so up until the age of like 22, you're basically a total draw. You're a total liability for your parents. As a young man, I mean, especially think about you. You're literally out of central casting for parents right now. And any time you spend with your parents right now, they're just going to get so much enjoyment out of.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And Republicans and the incumbents would like us to believe that, oh, no, the middle class is a naturally occurring organism and it'll come back on its own. No, if you don't take money from corporations and the most fortunate among us and redistribute it in the middle class, the middle class throughout history eventually goes away.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And what you have with dynastic wealth is you're taking capital that should go back into the ecosystem and just creating these dynasties of unproductive rich people. Now, the good news is that most of them aren't very happy.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And so for me, the reason that you can justify an exceptional inheritance tax is that additional capital or inheriting more than, say, 10 million bucks, that doesn't increase the happiness of your kids. Right. I know a lot of rich kids, and I know a lot of kids who are not rich, and the levels of happiness are not greater among the rich kids.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
So if the whole point is to create a society where people can have purpose and meaning and live a happy life, and they're getting no additional happiness, if you let them inherit more than, say, $10 or $20 million, then what's the point when you could redistribute that capital to other people and give them more of a shot? So I hate dynastic wealth.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
But what you're seeing and I see it, I mean, I think I've always resented rich kids because I'm not one of them and I was always jealous of them. But what you're talking about is already happening, Ed. I mean, when you go to these nice hotels, there's people in their 50s and 60s and you can tell it's probably their money. And then there's a whole raft of a younger generation.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
To be clear, some of them, whether it's tech, some of them, you know, whatever it is, but a lot of them are there with their parents' credit card. It's already happening.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
100% no. The returns are shitty because it's a vanity investment. So there's a lot of people that love it. I'm sure they have some sort of deal. People love the idea of investing in almond. So that means they can extract, they can get very cheap capital, which spells shitty returns. So I would bet... that it's just not a great investment. It's like timeshares.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I haven't seen the paperwork on the underlying dynamics, but because so many people love the idea of investing in Amman, they're going to get a disproportionate amount of capital such that they will be able to offer really shitty terms. I would bet the returns will be awful, but maybe there's some psychic return of saying, oh, I'm an owner of Amman and I get 10% off
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I remember more hotel stories back when I remember taking my girlfriend I was trying to impress to a nice hotel in Cabo, but I signed us up. The reason I could go is I signed us up for a timeshare tour. And it was out of turn on when I told her we had to take a two-hour tour in the middle of the day to look at timeshare opportunities. Yeah. That's what happens when you roll with a dog.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And, you know, it's sad, but it's impossible to realize or really register. It's impossible. Have you ever lost anyone close to you? Just my granddad last year. Yeah, but that's natural. I would say that's sort of, you're sort of expecting that and the fact you've been at grandparents.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
When I laid that on her and got her down to Mexico, I'm like, oh, I got this free cocktail thing for us. She's like, oh, I'm not going to go. I'm like, you need to go. It's a timeshare pitch. We have to go. Otherwise, I can't get this room right.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Do you think that's a turn on? God damn, that doesn't work.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Yeah, my prediction is that the flows of capital into Europe begin to infect not just the defense contractors, but start to infect the other sectors in the economy. And that we're going to see, I think so far, European markets are up 13% or 16%. I think they're going to be up 30% plus this year. I think this is a trade, a momentum trade.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And I think there's probably a lot of fund managers right now thinking, okay, I missed this, but it's not too late. And you're going to see just an entirely different willingness and promiscuity around allocating big pools of capital to to European stocks that haven't been there for 20 years. Quite frankly, I just think we're getting started.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Yeah. And you don't realize, especially with your parents, you don't realize how quickly it comes when they're really old. And I really, that was something I got right. I spent a lot of time with my mom. Okay, I like that. All right, fuck that. Talk about AI and GDP. Let's get on with this shit. Let's get on with tariffs.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
This is tough because they say that the markets sometimes climb a wall of worry. And just as we started saying that the markets were really in trouble, it feels like the last two days have kind of rallied a bit. But I just saw this as a bit of a nothing burger. What did you think?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Today's number, 63,000. That's how many pages are in the newly released JFK assassination files, but none of them contain any revelations. Ed, what do JFK and Bill Clinton have in common? What's that? Both their careers ended with a stained dress. Oh, dog.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I think the Fed chair has basically one job description, and that is remain calm and carry on. It just wouldn't help if he showed up sweating, freaked out, and like, fuck, I don't know. I'm totally awake. I can't sleep. I'm so freaked out. And look at this data. Jesus Christ, I don't know what to make of this.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
If you want someone to kind of look nonplussed, like they're sleeping fairly well and not to be too alarmed, it needs to be the Fed chair. Like if the Fed chair shows up, You know, without his shoes and like he's been on a bender all night. It's just like, and popping pills.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
If every 15 seconds he said, I'm sorry, hold on a second. And he like struggled to get his pills out of his briefcase and then like started like throwing pills into his mouth and crunching on these things. That would be good. I'd love to see, I'd love for him just in the middle of these questions from centers. Just love to see him just like... bend over and just do a giant rail academy.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
What would happen to interest rates then? How would the tenure respond then?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
You know, I don't know. You say you got a feel for Chairman Powell. I feel for the American people that are You have to live under a fascist ass clown making decisions that no one can discern, like which direction we're headed in. Is that unfair? Fascist ass clown. FAC. The silver lining is the following, and that is I do think the American economy, the gears just keep turning.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And people keep innovating. People keep wanting to buy shit. People keep wanting to make money. People keep coming up with new ideas. And I think we probably overestimate the impact that the White House has on—it makes for a lot of headlines, but I wonder— I'm pretty sure we overestimated or underestimated. We give them too much blame and too much credit.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
But I would argue that these decisions, it would be impossible, I think, for them not to trickle down. And the fact that the GDP estimates have already come down, I think, is evidence these decisions are not good for the economy.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I love this. I think there are a few sectors that are more corrupt than sports leagues, and that is they leverage the fact that people feel really benign about them to establish regulatory capture and And they get even legislation that enables them to be monopolies. I mean, if you and I wanted to start a football team, an NFL team in Chicago, we can't.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
The NFL gets to decide they can control supply. And the owners love it because that means that they buy $4 billion and if they hold on to it for 10 years – They know it'll go up in value because they know the number of billionaires will increase as the economy increases and there's a fixed set of supply.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I mean, these things are so corrupt and they leverage this monopoly power and they extract rents from the players, from consumers. Ticket prices have accelerated. They're essentially legal monopolies. And it's just ridiculous to think that why shouldn't you be able to start a tournament, create another team?
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Support for the show comes from Mercury, the FinTech that more than 200,000 entrepreneurs use to simplify their finances. When banking can do more, your business can do more. With Mercury, you can watch your revenue climb with every invoice you send. You can stay current with contractors with built-in bill pay. You can unlock the credit you need to scale faster.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Today's number 476. That's how many S&P 500 companies Warren Buffett could buy with the cash while he's sitting on. True story, Ed. This morning I was taking a dump and I immediately got up. I got startled by something. And for a brief moment, I was in between the basin and the floor. And I realized, Ed, I'm an astronaut.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I agree, and we'll talk more about this in predictions, but I think the worm has turned. I think that essentially...
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
There's an enormously ripe opportunity for people in both the Republican Party and in corporations to stand up and go basically what the Harvard president did, said, you know, look, look, boss, what you're doing is wrong and we're not going to put up with it and we're not going to try and kiss your ass and massage and whatever.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
figure out a way to couch, you know, to call your, you know, your quote-unquote 4D chess of eating the pieces somehow genius. We've had it. They're going to find a polite, starch way to say, you're a fucking idiot, and we're not down with this. And it's been striking, the silence from these guys. All 500 SMB CEOs think this is just fucking stupid, bad for America, bad for everybody.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Zero of them have spoken out because what Trump has done is created an incentive system where for short-term shareholder value, you just stay quiet and nod and announce that you're building a $500 billion plant that you're always planning to and credit him and give him a million bucks. That has changed. There's now an enormous consumer opportunity to stand up and be an American consumer.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And I am here for feminism. And hear me roar, and we're all one, Ed. We're all one. I'm an astronaut, Ed. Can you believe the amount of shit these women are getting? I'm so here for this.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
You know who's perfect for this? Who? Because they are an aggressive brand. They're an American brand. Palantir. I don't think it's Palantir. I think Palantir is so overvalued right now. To your point, it needs to be a company that's gotten the shit kicked out of it and doesn't have a lot to lose. I think this would be the gangster move for Nike.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I think because they came out, they came out, first off. The all-American company, yeah. Well, Elliot Hill doesn't have a lot to lose. Stocks at a 12-year low. He's in a honeymoon phase. He's the new CEO. They have a history of being unafraid around politics. They were very smart around the Colin capturing a moment with Colin Kaepernick.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
If they weaponize Whedon Kennedy or some of the most creative people in the world and said, there's something about America and competition. And fair play and having people from different backgrounds and the power of immigrants who become American and sport, they could come up with something really moving that highlights what's going on here is not American.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And look at it through the lens of sport and look at it through the lens of a great American company like Nike. And to your point, they don't have a lot to lose at this point. There has never been a bigger, a more ripe opportunity for a Fortune 500 CEO to stand up and say, All right. You know, the men have shown up.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
It's a smart move economically. The wealthiest 10% control 50% of the consumer economy now. And what percentage of those people do you think are waiting for someone to stand up and call bullshit on all this bullshit? There's an enormous opportunity for a consumer brand to come out and be the good guys here.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
The first guy who does this, the juice is squeezed. The Harvard president. This was the best brand move of 2025 year to date, probably. It was Harvard. All of a sudden, they look like the good guys in Columbia.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I wouldn't say they look weak. They just don't look as good.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
The first CEO who stands up and says, okay, come after me, have at it, sees a massive inflow of goodwill from foreign and domestic manufacturers and consumers. And the person that goes, the half-life here, the drop-off will be enormous. And numbers two, three, four, five, and six get 10% of the credit there. That the first person gets. And no one's done it yet.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Even a guy like Jamie Dimon's been kind of like dancing around being like, just in case you want me as Treasury Secretary, I'm here and I don't want to say anything to offend anybody. You know, enough already. Enough.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
It's very difficult to predict the actions of the Mad King at this point. But you do get the sense, based on him blinking last week, that he does listen to the markets. And if you want to talk about waking up to a 3-5, maybe even an 8,000-point drop in the Dow, fire Chairman Powell.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Because a key component and accepted general best practice across Western economies is you have to insulate the head of the bank, the central bank and the Fed or whatever the equivalent institution is. You have to separate it. You have to give it protection or immunity from political pressure because these guys are all so horny for power. The economy, most people are voted out of office.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
The number one reason is people are dissatisfied with the economy. And the easiest way to juice the economy is just to call the chairman and say, I'm going to fire you unless you cut interest rates by, I need you to announce five cuts and the market will go up. That could be disastrous, though, for the economy.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Yeah. So the scary part is who does he put in? Does he put an ass clown, Lutnick? I mean, does he put in Stephen Miller? He put in Kid Rock. We're cutting interest rates to 0%. Let America bloom. Let our companies run. And it's like, okay, now we have 22% inflation.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I mean, Chairman Powell, arguably, if you consider him technically part of the administration, is the most competent person in the administration or has the best reputation. Right. I think the next Democratic president is going to give him the National Medal of Freedom.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
So I have a friend who lives in London who has a company doing independent research on media and technology. And his name is Richard Cramer. He runs this niche, very high-quality research firm. I think it's called Aret. I don't know. It's like some name that's hard to pronounce. Anyways, he sent me an email saying the following. Did you see the B of A survey?
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Global fund managers' interest in investing in U.S. is at a 30-year low. So what does that mean? It means we're going to have to raise the interest rates we pay for money to come in. That's going to be inflationary. I'm trying to work through all the second order effects here. Can you imagine what's going to happen to the earnings of export and import dependent companies? Exactly.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Well, you know me. I don't like to draw attention to myself, Ed. Yeah, I wore a Canada shirt around. It was amazing. When I got bored last time I was in New York, I put on my Canada, my, you know, big Canadian leaf, whatever the maple leaf thing, and I'd walk around Soho and people would go like, hey, thank you. We appreciate your support. That's my Canadian accent, whatever that was.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Check it out for yourself at mercury.com. Mercury, banking that does more. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Thank you. Support for this show comes from Public.com. If you're serious about investing, you need to know about Public.com. That's where you can invest in everything, stocks, options, bonds, and more.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Yeah, they don't know what to order. They don't know if to stop all shipments. They can't just flip a switch and massively reconfigure their supply chain and start getting outdoor furniture overnight from Chile as opposed to China. It just...
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Yeah, I got to think there's, you're going to hear the term uncertainty and impact from tariffs in almost, it's going to be a more common used phrase than AI in earnings calls over the next three months. Everyone's going to be like, they'll blame, and some of it will be untrue. Some of it just becomes they're performing well, but they'll blame everything.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
It is going to be, literally everyone's going to blame everything on this.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Support for the show comes from Public.com. All right. And if you're serious about investing, you need to know about Public.com. That's where you can invest in everything, stocks, options, bonds, and more. They even offer some of the highest yields in the industry, including the bond account 6% or higher yield that remains locked in even if the Fed cuts rates. Bottom line? Public Investing, Inc.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Member FINRA and SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. I should also disclose I am an investor in public. Support for the show comes from Groons. If you're looking for a new tasty nutrition solution, then look no further than Groons. It's a convenient, comprehensive formula packed into eight gummies a day.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Groons isn't a multivitamin, a greens gummy, or a prebiotic. It's all of those things, and then some at a fraction of the price. Their daily packs contain eight gummies because you just can't fit the amount of nutrients they do just into one gummy.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
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Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
But groons is methylated, which is a fancy way of saying their vitamins like B12 and folate can be absorbed by your body. Methylating is an expensive option for a lot of other companies, but Gruns is looking out for you. Plus, they're vegan and free of nuts, dairy, and gluten. And they're made with no artificial colors or flavors. Get up to 45% off when you go to Gruns.co and use code PROFG.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Sound like a dead language that twins speak to each other. But, yeah, it literally took Donald Trump to make me like Harvard. And I can't stand Harvard. You know what I hate the most? Even Princeton douches aren't this bad. You know what I just fucking hate? I'll say to someone, I'll come up like, where did you go to college? And someone goes, I went to college in Boston.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
That's G-R-U-N-S dot C-O. Using code PROFG for 45% off. Thank you. Thank you so much for having me. You can open a Found account for free at found.com slash profg, spelled F-O-U-N-D dot com slash profg. Found is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services are provided by Piermont Bank, member FDIC. Don't put this one off.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
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Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I mean, there's just some of the most basics of strategy. If you're 5% of the world's economy or world's population, but you have a quarter of its economic growth or a quarter of its prosperity, you are highly levered to the upside. And some of that comes from this most basic of advantages as a species. You have leveraged the most basic species, and that is cooperation.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And generally speaking, the U.S. believes in free trade. We make outstanding products. So we say to people, okay, well, for the most part, we'll compete. And we win on a regular basis. And to declare war on everyone all at once is just, okay, that absolutely makes no sense. In addition, his second really big strategic error was underestimating the competition.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
You went to Harvard and you want everyone to know it, but you want to pretend to be humble because it's so fucking awesome to have gone to Harvard that you pretend that it's like you really shouldn't rub your... I want to strangle them. I want to send them to space. By the way, I think Katy Perry was replaced up there with someone else.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
while we have issued tariffs based on some junior economic analysts and fed it into ChatGPT, and he's claimed that 75 nations are lining up to talk to us, we don't have, in this administration, we don't have the human capital or the brainpower to even begin those conversations, distinct to the fact it's a lie and all of these nations are lining up to exit relationships with the U.S.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
What they're doing is they're having conversations with each other. There are more It's really interesting. Donald Trump's actions are actually going to inspire, in my opinion, some growth over the medium and long term, because I think every I think he is going to say, all right, enough of the shit.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
The best way to fight back is for us to put our shit aside and deregulate and to bring down trade barriers. You're just going to see all these strange bad fellows to say, hey, Brazil, we're Denmark. Why don't we lower all of our trade barriers? And, you know, you buy more I don't know, more cobbler's shoes and we buy more steak or whatever.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I don't know what it is that Denmark... What do the Danish produce?
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Oh, is that right? Is that where Novo Nordisk is? Yep. Oh, there you go.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Our biggest exporter by dollar by Boeing.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
We're a services economy. We talk about Boeing and big manufacturers and, you know, Jack Daniels. At some point, it's going to jump the shark. And the biggest IPOs in the world of companies not headquartered in the U.S., They're going to say, we're not using Goldman or JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley. We're going to go with Deutsche Bank. HSBC. Yeah, we're going to go with other investment banks.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I just... You know what the best thing about that Blue Origin thing was? This is a true story. You know, they're trying to pretend it's for all mankind, right? First off... That was a giant leap backwards for women. Did you hear them screaming on the way down?
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
We don't need this bullshit. And by the way, David Solomon and Jamie Dimon, grow a fucking pair. Say something for God's sakes. And that's the opportunity. David Solomon, who I know, if he just came out and said, this is just fucking insane, I think he would get a torrent of this. Their best business, the business they've all tried to evolve is wealth management because it's much more predictable.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
They can produce between 50 and 100 basis points a year on AUM from wealthy people by managing their taxes, being thoughtful. And by the way, I know firsthand they do a great job. They do a great job. And it's a better business because it's not subject to all these fluctuations from the market. If they want more AUM, they should come out and say, this is bullshit. Canada is our friends.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
The EU, they are our friends. These are our allies. You know what's going to happen? A bunch of really super wealthy people are going to say, oh, my God, I'd like to invest in a company run by a guy who has fucking testicles. There is such a huge opportunity for one of these guys to stand up and say enough is enough and couch it as we have wonderful relations with companies and people in Europe.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
J.P. Morgan does a huge amount of business. in Europe and in Asia. And they are going to see Trump full of bluster and anger and threatened to weaponize the DOJ against him. And then like a cat chasing a fucking red dot, he'll go on to the next thing. And that company is going to get more business over the next 12 or 24 months. Because you know what, Ed? The North remembers. The North remembers.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And right now, the North is everyone else. They will remember who actually stood up to this shit. Right? There is never, it's never the wrong time to do the right thing.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Yeah, I just, I love that clip. Yeah, and now Germany's the good guys.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Yeah, take on everyone all at once, including universities. I mean, they're taking on everyone. Who is he not at war with right now? Let me think. Universities, every foreign nation. I mean, it's just, okay, who's next? What's next? We're all kind of waiting for... We're waiting for one of two things. We're waiting for it to get much, much worse, or we're waiting for someone to show up.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
It's like, oh, OK. Yeah, it's a woman's world. It's a woman's world. But when they were about to take off on launch, you know, they try to make it all dramatic and they're like T minus two minutes. And there's all these newscasters broadcast like desperate to get anyone to watch anything so they can sell more opioid induced constipation meds. And they're like, and this is just in.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I don't think I've ever seen a vacuum of leadership like this. The Democrats seem neutered. There's no one who's emerged. I did a podcast. I was on Governor Newsom's podcast yesterday or two days ago. Oh, wow. And I basically said, I think someone should announce they're running for president and start.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
If someone announced today they were running for president, they'd be the leader of the Democratic Party and they would be on TV every day making, hitting a series of of softballs out of the park just responding to all this ridiculous shit.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Yeah, that's right. A chicken in every pot of Cialis in every cupboard.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I have considered it. I had a company and some individuals call me and say, if you put up 10 million, we'll put up 10 million. And you won't – you're not running for president. You're running for change. And it's not about winning. It's about shaping the messaging and having an influence on America the same way Andrew Yang made UBI successful. more palatable in the redistribution of income.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I mean, that was Andrew's real victory here. And I'm a narcissist. I have all the qualities to be president. I'm white, I'm male, and I'm a narcissist, and I'm rich. So those are the primary considerations. The other thing, though, is you have to like people. I don't have that.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And just to be very honest, I'm 60, and the idea of lightning striking, and I end up probably not winning, but maybe end up with, you know, get 2% or 3%, which is enough to leverage myself into some sort of cabinet role. I want to hang out with my wife and kids and do amazing things and go to F1 and be irresponsible when I want to be irresponsible.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And the reality is I don't feel that same sense of patriotism. If I was more patriotic, I think I would decide to give up eight years and try and do something more meaningful. But I've also decided... I think, Ed, I think the two of us right now, especially you because you're younger and you're kind of coming into your sweet spot, I think we can have a lot of impact from outside the tent.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And that is be unbridled, try and entertain, try and educate, and try and help get great leaders elected. I think there's a lot of really good people who would be a lot more qualified. and enjoyed a lot more than me. And that when I really asked myself, why am I receptive to calls to run for office? It's too much of my ego and my narcissism and not enough
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
of a vision and a calling to help the country. And that means I shouldn't run. But what we can do is we can absolutely take our time, treasure, and talent to help some of the amazing people who are out there and see what man or woman rises to the moment and get behind them.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I just think there's so many people who would be so much better than me. Did you ever meet Gina Raimondo, the former head of commerce? She was just so good, so intelligent. I just think there's so much. Michael Bennett should be secretary of education. Vivek Murthy would be an outstanding head of HHS. I just think there's so many incredible people. I think our job is to prop those people up.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
So I think people are mistaking some fame and some ability to articulate ideas over actual operational excellence. So I think I'm self-aware enough to know that, okay, if you're really loyal to the country, if you really want to see America be America again, then part of that is saying, how can I be most effective?
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Katy Perry is actually going to sing when she's up there and literally on cue. And they said that. The guy in the control room goes, warning, one minute. And I'm like, one minute. They're like, here's your warning. She's going to be singing in one minute. What did you think of the Blue Origin launch and these very brave women?
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And so, no, I think our job, Ed, I'm going to run you for something such that I can get you to help me engage in massive tax avoidance when I'm 80 and just doing nothing but counting my pennies and yelling at people. I'll get you to become a senator. But until then, the two of us and the good people here at Prop G are going to help great Americans get elected and make America America again.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
The two greatest tax cuts in the modern economy would be the following. Well, OK, the third. Number one would be the ass clown gets reined in somehow. But distinct to that, One, if the Chinese and the American leadership were to kiss and make up, they have the ultimate supply chain of things we don't want to produce at that cost. We have IP and an incredible consumption economy and innovation.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
It would lower everyone's costs in the world by 10 to 20 percent. The second biggest oxygenation of the economy would be if we broke up big tech. Right. And that is because of the monopoly power they've established. One firm owns 50% or controls 50% of e-commerce, Amazon. One firm, 90% of search, Google. One firm, 70% of all social media, Meta.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
They're able to extract monopoly rents, whether it's the percentage they charge third-party retailers on their platform, whether it's search words, whatever it is. And the rents – and I've always said this – the greatest rents they're charging are non-economic. Think about the rents, and you don't know this because you don't have kids.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
The rents that Meta has raised on parents in the form of stress and strain, because they're so powerful and they have so much data and they have such mendacious leadership, and we allow them to get away with these things because of the idolatry of the dollar and this worship of technology. If you took those four companies and broke them into 11 or 12, who wins?
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Society wins because they're too powerful and they've made our discourse more coarse and they haven't been able to resist radicalizing young men on YouTube or depressing young girls on Meta. Society wins. The rents go down. Shareholders win. Can you imagine Instagram trades or Meta trades at about 7.7 times revenue? Can you imagine what an independent Instagram would trade at?
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I bet a few of those guys are going to come up with reasons they can't do it.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
A pure play Instagram? That company would trade at 15 to 20 times revenue. WhatsApp, instead of being a body bag of data to inform the core dying out platform of Facebook, they would try and turn it into what it is, a truly the largest global telco. And they'd start monetizing it.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
These companies, independent of one of each other, would create more competition, more shareholder value, more tax revenue, because I believe they'd be more profitable. They would increase wages because there'd be more companies trying to rent human labor. I mean, if you want to be in social media and make a shit ton of money, what, are you going to go to Pinterest? No, you go to Meta.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Pinterest basically gets everyone that Meta doesn't. You know, what, you're going to go to Snap? I think those two firms are in business because Meta has made the conscious decision not to put them out of business so they can pretend they have competition. I'm serious. I think— That's a great point. Somebody came in and said, oh, we can put Pinterest out of business in six months.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
We're going to launch Instaboards. And Zuckerberg said, no, talk to Nick Clegg or whoever else has their finger on the pulse of DC and goes, no, that— They're shitty. Their business model sucks. And it gives people the illusion we have actual competition. Just don't just let them have their little four or five billion dollars a year and their eight billion dollar market caps.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Meanwhile, we have a trillion dollar market cap. Just let them let them survive to create the illusion. of competition. The only people that lose in a breakup, it's almost impossible to find a breakup that didn't end up working for everybody.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
The only people that lose are the person who controls the voting shares, the super shares, who's decided they want to sit on the iron throne of all seven realms, not just Westeros.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
There's no heaven. It's easy if you try.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
You know, we'll call balls and strikes. So far, I think we should commend the president on sticking to his guns here. The thing that's sad is that Mark Zuckerberg, and I've said Mark and Sheryl, I think there's few people you could point to that have made more money while doing more damage to America than Mark Zuckerberg or Sheryl Sandberg. But there's just no getting around it.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
They're both incredibly talented executives. And I would argue that Zuckerberg is probably the really probably one of the business geniuses of the last 50 years. But when one of the most brilliant business minds has decided and is convinced that he can buy his way out of regulation by giving money to the Trump administration and traveling there, what does that say about our nation?
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And by the way, he still may be right. We'll see. I hope the president sticks to his guns here.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
But the brightest business mind, you know, in a generation puts a bunch of hardcore MAGA people on his board, shows up at the inauguration, gives money and says, OK, regardless of my violating laws, regardless of the fact I suppress competition, regardless of the fact that I'm levying huge taxes every day emotionally and mentally on our youth and on their parents, I think I can buy my way out of this in today's America.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I hope he's wrong. I hope he's wrong.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Well, it goes back to what we were saying. I think there's an enormous opportunity, and I do think the worm has turned, and that... I mean, let me save you – at business school, we have ethics, we have leadership, and we have sustainability courses. And they each cost – every course costs $7,000. Let me save you $21,000. Ethics. Think about right and wrong.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I think we're having a series of small revolutions. And I think of Black Lives Matter as basically in the Me Too movement as righteous movements where systemic racism or abuse of power by men in corporations, people have just had enough. But in each of those instances in this one, they go after rich people. They're not talking about racism, small, medium sized companies.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Leadership. do the right thing even when it's hard. Boom, you're done with leadership. And the sustainability, thinking about doing the right thing, doing the right thing when it's really hard, you might make money out it. You might actually make money out it. Boom, you're done. I just saved you $21,000. My prediction is the following.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I think there's such an enormous vacuum for leadership here that someone is going to step into it and reap enormous rewards, both in terms of their status, their leadership, what goes on their tombstone, and also shareholder value. I just think there's so many people lining up against this guy. He's losing his power.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
A hundred third graders can line up against a big, angry sixth grader if they're unified. And this guy has given us reason to be Someone is going to step into the void of leadership here. And the person I'm reminded of or the situation is a gentleman named Martin Niemöller. And Martin is credited with this fantastic quote that loosely is reduced to first they came for.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
He was a prominent Lutheran pastor in Germany. in the 20s and 30s, he was actually very kind of pro-Nazi and supported radically right-wing political movements. After Hitler came to power in 33, however, Niemöller became an outspoken critic of Hitler's interference in the Protestant church. He spent the last eight years of Nazi rule in prisons and concentration camps.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And he's best remembered for his post-war statement, which begins, first they came for the socialists and I did not speak out because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists and I did not speak out because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews and I did not speak out because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me and there was no one left to speak for me.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And that is so powerful. And I think that when – on a very crude and economic level, when you don't speak out on behalf of our wonderful allies and other companies and speak out on behalf of your own company – Just wait, folks. In the long run, it's just really bad for you not speaking out.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And even on a more substantive level, when we allow people to be rounded up because they have the wrong tattoo or because they're illegal, undocumented workers and send them to a hellscape prison. Just be careful when the knock comes on your door. This is a threat to everybody. And so I'm hopeful. I think America has a ton of great leaders. And I think this has gotten so bad.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
My prediction is in the next one, two, four weeks, we're going to see some prominent leaders. And we can't guess. Who knows where they come from, right? This Harvard president has shown real leadership. But I think that there's going to be several people step into this void of leadership and realize that I need to speak up.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
They're not talking about systemic racism across the middle class. They're talking they go after it's sort of almost like a vehicle to go after rich people. And I think that essentially people are just so fed up. with how much prosperity has been crammed into the top 1%, when they see someone who is rich, like, if you're rich, be rich and quiet. Go open a fucking dildo if that's what you want.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I mean, I remember when, was it the Challenger disaster? That's one of the things I remember where you were. I was in the shower of my fraternity, and this guy came in. And first he gave me a head. It was that kind of fraternity. And then, I don't know. Why do I find that funny? You are.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Pay the money, fine. Have at it. But to try and capture social status and portray, to rebrand vanity and rebrand wealth as any sort of like virtue, people are just like, we've had it with these people. We've literally, we've had it.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
We don't, I think these folks surround themselves in bubbles where they think they are super interesting and that what they do is inspiring and everything they do can be couched as something inspiring. And then the rest of the world goes, okay, if you're rich and you can go up in a rocket and you're
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
In your betrothed to the third wealthiest man in the world, good for fucking you, but we don't need to hear about it. Keep it to yourself. Your thoughts, Ed. Should we start this show? I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And even under 6% or higher yield that you can lock in with a bond account. Visit Public.com slash PropG and get up to $10,000 when you transfer your old portfolio. That's Public.com slash PropG. What if you could make that stop?
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
So the uncertainty index in the United States has hit the highest it's been since the 80s. So people are feeling more uncertain about the US economy right now than when we had a virus killing. They killed a million people and there was lockdowns and they closed schools. People are more uncertain today than they were during COVID.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
And there's always a flight to quality or a fight, not even a flight to quality, a flight to hard assets where if shit gets real, I can take my gold bars and head to my bunker. Right. It's this it is kind of the gold is really sort of an uncertainty index. And the reason why the trade is so crowded is not only because of uncertainty, but because of greed.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Because if you look at economic history, if you look at every recession, let's go through each of them and how gold performed relative to the S&P 500. From 73 to 75, gold returned 73%. The S&P was down 37%. From 1980 to 82, the S&P lost 27% of its value. Gold was up 120%. 90 to 91, I remember this. This is when I got out of grad school and couldn't find a job. The S&P returned negative 3%.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Gold was up 7%. 2001, market down 13%. Gold up 5%. 2007 to 2009, actually from 07 to 2011, gold doubled. And then in 2020, during COVID, Q1, the S&P was down 34%. Year-to-date for the whole year was up 16%, but gold was up 30%. Now, is this a giant buy signal? I don't know. Buyer beware, because a lot of that, I mean, it was just such an obvious and smart, things seem so obvious in hindsight.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
A couple of weeks ago, when he announced his tariffs, really think, okay, this is going to create uncertainty. It's stupid. He's declaring war on everyone all at once. What would be a good trade? And this feels like obvious in hindsight now. I don't know. Basically, when a trade is super crowded, you get scared because that means it's probably a bit overvalued.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I mean, the run up here has been pretty significant.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I was initially in favor of the chip bands to China because I thought, OK, these are the same chips that are used in missiles to help guide them real time or drones. But what did they do? They came up with a workaround. They came up with essentially deep seek. So there's an argument that, OK, all you're doing is inspiring them to come up.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
make their own investments and then come up with their own chips and develop their own industry. If there's a company that could give back some gains and be fine, it'd be Nvidia. But just the amount of time they're spending trying to navigate this bullshit as opposed to making a better chip, You can just see there's this is this is the Republican argument.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
Government needs to get out of the way with stuff like this. And this is creating just a lot of unnecessary time and energy and waste. But the export ban hands the Chinese air market over to domestic competitors, including Huawei. So it's kind of a gift again. I keep thinking that all of this kind of bubbles up to medium and long-term gains for China.
Prof G Markets
Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?
I used to think that China's hit a pretty big speed bump the last five or seven years, and then America was pulling away. I think over the next, actually, everyone talks about our ability to ruin China's economy. I think in two or three years, relative to U.S. performance, China's going to—and maybe India.
Prof G Markets
The TikTok Showdown, UnitedHealth’s First Earnings Post-Shooting, and a Banking Boom
This special series from The Verge is presented by Adobe Express.
Prof G Markets
The TikTok Showdown, UnitedHealth’s First Earnings Post-Shooting, and a Banking Boom
Probably in 2025, we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of mid-level engineer that you have at your company that can write code. And once you have that, then in the beginning, it'll be really expensive to run. Then you can get it to be more efficient.
Prof G Markets
The TikTok Showdown, UnitedHealth’s First Earnings Post-Shooting, and a Banking Boom
And then over time, we'll get to the point where a lot of the code in our apps and including the AI that we generate is actually going to be built by AI engineers instead of people engineers.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Anyways, that brings home the American health care system is not only making us sicker physically, it is loving so much strain and pressure on people. And I just love that these companies are getting kicked in the nuts.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Did they really? Oh, and by the way, so anyway, back to me. Who the fuck cares about you? Stop acting like me and turning it back to you.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
The FT is doing a profile on me. And they came over and they were like taking photos and all this stuff. So I feel like that is literally the closest to British royalty I will ever get. The FT is doing a profile on me. I'm going to be one of these guys that spends a billion, like something like half the Lords and the Knights are billionaires. Yeah. But it's not, it's not a pay for play thing.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
talk about Medicare, for example. There have been studies by the Wall Street Journal and reports about massive billions upon billions of dollars in overcharging due to things called upcoding, which is when an insurance company goes in, they take someone on Medicare, make them look really sick,
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
and then they get to bill for all that, but then they don't necessarily reimburse for all that, and they keep the money in between. These are the kinds of areas you would focus if you're actually trying to make government less expensive and more efficient.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
So I think over time, the only way to really do that, I think, and I hate to say it because I always have this gag reflex. Well, I'm not a man. I'm not macho. I'm not capitalist. If I recommend socialized medicine, for God's sakes, we need socialized medicine. The only way to solve the deficit, in my opinion, is to move to socialized medicine.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And the only way we do that is to figure out a series of executive actions or some sort of legislation or the right Supreme Court justices to overturn Citizens United because money has just... I mean, the greatest investment, return on investment in our economy is when these healthcare companies give money to politicians.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
HBO Max, this will go down in history as a first ballot hall of fame, head up your ass brand strategy move. There's something in Brand strategy. We spend two sessions in my brand strategy course at NYU called Brand Architecture. HBO, a brand is a series of intangible associations that result in a rational trial or margin.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
You could have infinite capital and you couldn't build a brand like HBO in two, three, five, maybe even 10 years. And they're taking that brand and immolating it so they can call it Max. I mean, this is just... This is an outrage ad.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Well, first off, let's nod to your logic and let's change the name of your educational institution to Prince because it's cleaner, Ed. It's cleaner.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Wow. This is my one year. This is my birthday. You admitting you were wrong and I was right. That doesn't happen very often here. HBO has developed such... It is the artisanal brand. It is the Hermes. It is the Ferrari. It is, you know, it is the... Beverly Hills Hotel of hotels. It is the premier artisanal brand in media.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And their ability to attract the best talent, and they've been able to maintain this culture that attracts the best talent, has resulted in a streaming network that is... If there's people talking about a zeitgeist cultural moment, it's usually because of a show on HBO. Whether it's Succession, whether it's The Last of Us, I mean, or Game of Thrones or The Sopranos.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Or The White Lotus featuring Scott Galloway. Thank you very much. You're welcome. They have figured out a way to capture lightning in a bottle more often than any other firm on $2.5 billion in content budget versus Netflix at $18 billion. To take that brand... and fuck with it like this shows that you are a terrible fiduciary for shareholder value.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
It means no one on the board, a board kind of has three jobs, one, if and when to sell the company, two, hiring and firing the CEO, make sure you have the right guy or gal, but also three, you should have some domain expertise on the board such that you can save the CEO from him or herself.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
You can occasionally weigh in and go, you may want to think this through, or they call on you if you have a really good relationship, they call you and say, what are your thoughts around this?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
The fact that they did five brand changes in five years and they decided to do away with what is one of the greatest brands in the history of media shows there is no one on the board that has any sense of marketing or branding. What is even worse about all of this is that this is probably the worst board in media. Warner Brothers, Discovery, since the merger, the stock is down 62%. All right?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
That's bad. They faced a lot of headwinds. Despite shareholders losing almost two-thirds of their value, the board has decided to pay their CEO, David Zaslav, $387 million over the last four and a half years. So shareholders, you give us a dollar, we'll give you back $0.38. But we're going to give our CEO who oversaw this destruction of shareholder value a third of a billion dollars.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
This is an absolute destruction of shareholder value. It shows that the people who are some of the most creative people in the world can't save themselves from themselves. And I will say this, a step back from the wrong direction is a step in the right direction. So good for them. They probably realized they really needed HBO.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I'm triggered by this because HBO has literally garnered some, in my opinion, has inspired some of the most incredible moments in creative history. When, you know, when Jon Snow and Ygritte, when Ygritte comes to her end in Game of Thrones, I think there's some incredible love stories in there.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Plus, Game of Thrones, hands down, everyone always said, what about a porno if it was a really good story with high production values? Congratulations, that's called Game of Thrones. My son, true story, my son did not refuse to have the sex talk with me. I said, okay, it's time for your sex talk. He screamed out no and started running from me.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
He literally just refused to have the talk and said, okay, we don't have to have this talk, but you're watching Game of Thrones with me for eight seasons. That's basically sex education for any 15 or 16-year-old.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Yeah, but if there's one message from Game of Thrones, if there's one moral, it's that family comes first. That's good! That's good!
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I told you right when I moved there, they invited me to 11 Downing Street. Hold on, hold on, hold on. Scott. Yeah? It's 10 Downing Street. 10 Downing. 11 Downing? Oh. Maybe that's why they didn't invite me back. It's 10 Downing? Thank you. Thank you. It's good to have some local knowledge. Anyways, so I went down. First time I went down, they didn't have me on the guest list.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I would imagine they have figured out that there's a target market of pretty wealthy consumers with a lot of disposable income, specifically corporate travelers who like the amenities of hotels. And so they're starting to add them. I think it's a great idea, but it's high margin revenue. I talk to Brian on a semi-regular basis and brainstorm. This was not my idea.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
The idea I had for Brian is if you're in Munich and you say you're 29 and you're working for Salesforce and you're on London sales team and you're in Munich meeting with, you know, I don't know, BMW or whoever, you can turn on a switch that says you're visible and
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And there's groups or coordinators, almost like a Reddit page manager that says, we're all meeting at the Hofbrauhaus tonight and everyone's welcome. Because what I found when I was your age, Ed, and you don't do as much business travel as I did. When I was your age, I was literally already molesting the earth trying to sell brand strategy services. I would find myself in an amazing city.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
staying at an amazing hotel with a little bit of money, and I had nothing to do. And sure, I could walk around the city on my own, but I would have loved to have gotten together with a like-minded group of people. And Airbnb, I think it's a really nice community. My sense of people who engage in Airbnb are professionals or culturally interesting people in their 20s and 30s.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
That's my sense of the populace. I don't know if that's true. Oh, that's right. But To give them another reason or to create an added feature where when I travel with Airbnb, I get stitched into this really cool community of people where I can make friends, find professional contacts. I mean, that's what you should be doing. Create a community.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Thought I was so important. Went down. And the woman called me. Oh, I'm so sorry. We forgot you were coming in. Went in. And they wanted to put me on the governing body for UK football. Really? Yeah. I thought, I know nothing about football, but it sounds like a shit ton of fun and I get to go to games. Oh my God. You didn't tell me that, Paul. Oh yeah.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I think it's just another feature. I don't think it's a money-making thing. I think what you could do is turn it into Airbnb Plus, and it creates the ability to go visible. I mean, if you want... I didn't see this as a moneymaker. I saw it as another feature that creates a more sticky brand where people go, I always go.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
What it does also is it takes advantage of their scale because I bet at any given time there's four, seven, 1100 people staying in Berlin that night at an Airbnb and no one else can do that. Anyways, that was my idea, but he didn't do it. That's why he's a billionaire and I'm here stuck with you celebrating our one year anniversary.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I think a lot of hotels live and die by this ancillary revenue. And that is when I stay at a hotel, I bet I spend, you know, probably 50, say the hotel costs a thousand bucks a night. I bet I spend, you know, another four or five hundred dollars on food services and stuff. Is it that much? Maybe. I don't know. Maybe not that much. But hotels, 30 percent of the revenue comes from ancillary.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And I bet at high end hotels, it's more than that.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
First they wanted me on the, it's called the OFC, the Office of Communications, where you regulate, I don't know, you regulate Facebook and all that shit. And I'm like, oh my God, that sounds awful. Yeah. And they're like, well, we're putting together a governing body for UK for the Premier League. And I'm like, I am so in. I'll be hated.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Yeah, for me, I would start, I would just say, okay, are you looking to cook dinner? We have a service where we have a chef or we have someone just get your groceries. Tell us what you want and we get your groceries, right? Do you want us to make restaurant reservations for you? Actually, we should bring in, I think, Claire and Mia. Did one of these services when they were at an Airbnb.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Claire, do you want to tell us about it?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I'm in awe of the fact that you are literally a different species. If someone said to me, you have to go with a strange man to his apartment and see how he makes chocolates, and then he's going to take you to a cave, but you have to pay $10,000 not to do it, I'd be like, I'll pay $11,000 not to do it. Your generation is so different than mine. That's incredible.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I mean, it sounds very kind of hip and millennial and free to be you and me. You guys weren't doing mushroom chocolates or anything? No.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
You decided to do this sober. Wow. That's super interesting. Anyways, that's why Brian Chesky is a billionaire. He probably did a focus group with Claire and Mia and figured out what it is they're looking for. I think that sounds, I mean, it sounds, I'm being serious. I think that sounds really, really cool.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Support for the show comes from public.com. All right. And if you're serious about investing, you need to know about public.com. That's where you can invest in everything, stocks, options, bonds, and more. They even offer some of the highest yields in the industry, including the bond account, 6% or higher yield that remains locked in, even if the Fed cuts rates. Bottom line?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
The American making bad decisions around UK at the sports pastime. Yeah, the Todd Boley of governance. It'll be good. I know this is going to come as a shock, but they haven't called me back. So I think this pot has something to do with it. You didn't lick the pot, I guess. I'm not in the British government. Let's talk about us. One year. One year.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Thank you so much for having me. Member FINRA and SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. I should also disclose I am an investor in public.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
What are your reflections on the incredible opportunity afforded you? It's been a very good year.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Yeah, I got this wrong. I think that I'm still seriously considering buying the stock because... I think that they're making the same transition, but they're sort of three, four years behind that Amazon made. Essentially, Amazon is a cloud company now with a retail unit, and it trades. It's experienced multiple expansion because it's now considered a cloud company with much better margins.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
It's just a much better business. I have in the data here that their AI cloud-related product revenue grew over 100% for the seventh consecutive quarter. Is that accurate?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I think until 100 years ago, the idea of being a Western company in Canada, Australia, or Germany and using cloud-based products from a Chinese company was unthinkable. I think as of today, it's less unthinkable because it's now choosing between the lesser of two evils. And the thesis I'm trying to figure out a way to make money off of is the following.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And there's always one piece of data that just blows my mind. And I'm like, this is gonna have huge ripple effects to the economy. And I try and think about how do I make money from this? And that is the following. For the first time in history, global consumers or global citizens on average believe that China is a better force or a bigger force for good in the world than America.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And I think that means how I drill down to that is I think there's going to be a lot of Western companies or companies in Latin America who are going to decide to use cloud services from a firm like Alibaba and not immediately defer to AWS or Azure or cloud services or Google's cloud. So I think that these Chinese companies or specifically Alibaba, I'm disappointed in that 18 percent number.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Yeah, it's shocking.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I don't know what that 100 percent year on year number was. I took it and extrapolated it out and said this will be a cloud company pretty quickly if it can maintain that growth. But your deeper analysis is the better one.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
But there's some issues here. The domestic economy isn't very strong. Your analysis is the correct one, that the impact or the slowdown from exports is probably not going to show up until next quarter, but maybe the market's already anticipating that.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I just, I get the sense that I think these companies are going to find a lot more foreign buyers contemplating and doing meetings with them than would have four months ago. But there's just no getting around it. I missed this one, but I still might. I thought, well, if I liked it yesterday, why wouldn't I like it now that it's off? There we go. There's the Warren Buffett in you. Five or 7%.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Yeah, there you go.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I'm thinking clear and have migraines. That was definitely shocking. That's a long time, though.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Today's number one. This week is the one-year anniversary of the Prof G Market's feed. Speaking of babies, Ed, when someone hands me their baby, you know what I say? What do you say? Sorry, I'm a vegetarian.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
It has been a while. This has been your only job since you got out of college, right?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Now, it's amazing how fast it's gone. So you came to work with a—I, again, love the story about Joanna Coles calling me and saying, I have a gift for you. And I'm like, oh, great. And she's like, Ed Elson. And I'm like, yeah? Remember the name. She's like, he's my son's best friend, and you have to hire him tomorrow. You're welcome. And I'm like, well, what role? It doesn't matter.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Okay. I start us with a question. Do we love our children? Sounds like an illegitimate question, right? Well, I'm going to try and convince you otherwise. Essentially, as we go down generations, we're seeing that for the last two generations, people are making less money on an inflation adjusted basis. In addition, the cost of buying a home, the cost of pursuing education.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
The most powerful in America have formed a coalition where their rights are a function of their wealth and their rights are respected anywhere in the world. I can get access to family planning, lawyers, healthcare, good schools for my kids, because there's now kind of a different class of oligarchs that consists of both Democrats and Republicans.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
It doesn't matter. She literally bullied me into hiring you. Anyways. And it panned out. Prop G Markets is now, it's our fastest growing pod in the pod willing franchise, which is the LLC I just invented to put all this shit in so I could engage in massive tax evasion. I mean, just bring some synergies together. Yeah. around the back end and the infrastructure.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And as a result, the most powerful people don't feel a vested interest in the long-term success of America. And it's from both sides. Now, it took Republicans to be the vessel to do it, but it's been a slow creep of both Democrats and Republicans. Just to be clear, during the Biden administration, taxes were lowered.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
For all the railing of Senators Warren and Sanders, when we controlled all three houses of government and President Biden was president, taxes went down. So there are a lot of co-conspirators here, including many of my friends who claim to have democratic ideals and clutch their pearls about, you know, how awful it is, what's going on. But this really is, this is another extension of it.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And as you know, I was supposed to be on Bill Maher with Steve Bannon and I decided to back out because I couldn't figure out a way to not confront him about a Nazi salute without grandstanding or anything. And so I backed out.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And he said on that show, Trump and the MAGA movement will raise taxes on the wealthy.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
With my 17-year-old, and I said, he's lying. There's no way Donald Trump is not going to cut taxes on the rich. That's just what he does. And he is not a good business person. His attitude to debt is anyone who's willing to loan you money is a fucking sucker. I genuinely think there's a decent chance that Trump, in the back of his mind, is just not that worried about America going bankrupt.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
He's gone bankrupt a bunch, and he's still a billionaire.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
The way the Democrats should frame this, and it's the truth, is people of my generation who are wealthy are asking your generation to loan us $24 trillion. And we're not gonna pay it back. You're gonna assume the loan. That's what we're asking right now. And that's how the Democrats should be positioning it.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Now, as it relates to trusts, as someone who has a trust, the trust has gone from, I think it was a maximum of 11 million, then it went to 23 or 24, and now they're talking about raising it to 30, meaning you can shield from all taxation $30 million. But it's even worse than that because the way estates work is if you put money in and it grows,
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
it grows tax deferred and it grows, you might end up with a trust that ends up being worth a quarter of a billion dollars. But my understanding is as long as it's worth less than 30 when you put the assets into the trust, it can grow and then you can pass it along tax-free. What's the point of all of this?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
The point is to have a purpose, have purpose in your life and to have a good life and to be happy and to have reward. And I would argue that most of that is around relationships and potentially finding the right partner and maybe deciding to have a family with that partner. I think that's the whole shooting match.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And money plays a big role in that because middle-income people are happier than lower-income, upper-income people are happier than middle-income. Money does buy happiness. But as Daniel Kahneman, the Israeli-American psychologist, proved, above a certain point, there's no incremental happiness. And I can validate this firsthand.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
As someone who has worked really hard and been very lucky and aggregated some wealth, I believe that I have the right to pass on some of that good fortune and wealth to my kids. Okay, fine, but above a certain amount, much less than $30 million, my kids are gonna get no incremental happiness. And so if the whole point is prosperity and happiness and purpose and meaning,
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And because our average age is 34, to reach as many 34-year-old males on CNBC, you'd have to watch CNBC until 2088 to reach as many young men.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
then there really isn't a reason to increase the cap on the estate tax. You should be lowering it and even increasing the tax rate, which I think now is 40%, because nobody loses.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And that is, if you redistribute that income for things like a child tax credit, for a great public school system, for K through 12, such that kids grow up and can be a little bit more critical thinkers and maybe think, am I voting for people that have my best interests at heart?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
All of these wonderful things can be taken from estates, and there's no degradation and happiness or purpose among your offspring. But no one wins here. No one wins. The only people that lose are the future generations that need that tax revenue because what we have to come to grips with is the reality that
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
that there has been a myth fomented in America that the middle class is a natural self-healing occurring organism. It isn't. If you don't massively invest in it, let me use the R word, if you don't redistribute money from corporations and rich people to the middle class, it starts to wither and die. Look, if you want to give your kids $10 million tax-free, and I'm one of those people, I get it.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I want my kids to have a certain amount of economic floor. I've worked too hard for my kids to go through. And a lot of people, a lot of parents will say, I want my kids to make it like I did. I don't. I work so fucking hard. I don't want my kids to be fearful about money. If someone in their life is sick, I don't want them to have the same fears I had when I had someone in my life sick.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I want to give them that. If it makes them spoiled, so be it. But they don't need more than $30 million. That's not going to do anything for them.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
They got your name wrong on the chyron.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
The thing that summarizes America right now is what Bill Gates said. And it's the following. And it was such a rattling statement. I thought, oh my God, that's so accurate and so puncturing and so upsetting. Bill Gates said, the world's richest man is killing the world's poorest children. And that's what we're doing here.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
America is tolerating the world's wealthiest man worth $400 billion, cutting massive amounts of aid to literally the poorest children in the world. And America seems to be okay with it. There is a lack of a value system in America where people are deciding what makes me feel good, what gets me richer, as opposed to any resemblance or any semblance of values.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And this runs so deep in America, and I think it's because we have had such prosperity that And we have been so divided by social media algorithms that we don't recognize how fortunate we are. We don't recognize that we should be serving in the agency of each other and that we're Americans first before we're gay, before we're Republican. We are Americans first.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And I said, you know what? Who cares? I'm like, wow, this Ed Olson guy looks a lot like Ed Elson. You were outstanding. You were measured. Thank you. They had all these, you know, the average age. By the way, I love Katie Tour.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And that the whole idea of America is that once you make it, you are absolutely going to start investing in the fertile lands behind you, such that as many people as possible can enjoy the same blessings you registered. Instead, everyone's like, no. I just want the shit in front of me to be laced in cocaine fields and see if I can figure out a way to create clouds that rain champagne.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I mean, it has gotten out of control.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Just a few details. If the changes from this tax cut pass, about 8.6 million people stand to lose their health coverage. True. True. Look, you want to cut Social Security for the wealthiest quartile of seniors or you want to extend the age qualification from 65 to 68 to 70, 72 to recognize that people are living longer and working longer. That should make sense.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Right out of Central Casting to be a great host.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
A great host for seven-year-old men to be like, oh, where's Katie? Where's that young whippersnapper Katie? Where's my oxygen tank? One year. One year. You're just imitating yourself at this point. I'm telling you, I got this new brand of edibles and it's working. It's working. I did it last night, and I called a friend I hadn't talked to in about three years, and she went, are you all right?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
But when you start cutting costs on things like SNAP, you're just going to end up paying more in other ways.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
It's something. Okay, let's take it. The estate tax exemption is going from $15 million to $30 million, but we're increasing the child tax credit from $2,000 to $2,500. Okay, that's something.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And Bill Ackman's idea and Alex von Furstenberg's been proposed something similar. Australia has, I think it's the Superfund. I love this idea. I would give every kid $7,000. That'd be $40 billion.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And then in 30 years, you'd start to see a crash in interest rates because you would announce in the next 30 years, we're not going to have Social Security because every kid's going to have approximately a million dollars. And I wouldn't let them Sell it. I'd treat them. I'd be very paternal and say no Social Security on your 65th birthday. You get a million bucks.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Get put in an account at four or six percent. You get 40 or 60 grand if you want to blow it. Sucks to be stupid. That's up to you. But I like this. I like this idea a lot.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
That'll create some really unnatural acts, though. It's like, what are we going to do? Like, before algebra at sophomore year at UCLA, we're going to go, praise Jesus! And then we're a religious institution?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Ed Olson has had it.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I have predictions. It's kind of boring. I was thinking, I'm just so triggered by this plane being given this $450 million plane. I think that's so embarrassing that the wealthiest, the president of the wealthiest nation in the world needs to have someone else pay for a plane manufactured here. It's not going to happen for a very mundane reason, and that is...
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
It would take, I think, very little C4 planted somewhere with a pretty sophisticated and small detonation device to put kind of, you know, I won't call it Air Force One, but Qatar's bitch two, whatever you'd want to call this plane. You could sabotage this plane. You could put in, I mean, these, a 747 Supermax, whatever it's called.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
is basically like a small city in terms of wiring and electronics and fuselage and paneling. There would be so many places to hide listening devices, espionage devices, or even worse, some sort of detonation device. And to think that Qatar would have the ability to take down Air Force One
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
means the only way the NSA, the Secret Service, who's charged with the president's safety, would get comfortable with this is if they disassembled the plane down to every bolt and screw and then reassembled that. And the cost of that is estimated to be $2.1 billion. And you don't think Trump would have an ability to say, shut up, it's fine?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I think they're going to sit him down and say, look, boss, we can't have you flying on something that the Qataris could have easily weaponized. I think they're just going to say, we can't guarantee your safety on this thing. So we were stupid enough to let Russia build our embassy in Moscow.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And when they opened it, a couple reporters went in there with like just a sledgehammer and into one of the unfinished rooms and just did a little bit of sledgehamming. And they found like seven listening devices every square foot.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Oh, yeah, it was hilarious. And they basically said they basically said demolish the thing we can't we we have to bring in our own contractors and we have to build it. We can't have the Russians build our embassy. That really isn't any different. Anyway, so a long winded way of saying my prediction is that the 747 gift is not going to happen.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
I could not stop talking. I could not stop talking. This is fun, but we should really get to the show, right? That's my line. I'm sorry. Just tell me a little bit more about your appearance on MSNBC.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
The FT is doing a profile on me and they can't. There's someone outside. Home invasion. Here they come. At this point, just do me in the ass. Just take me. Anyway.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Let's get to the headlines.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
All I got to say is we're doing this because it's rewarding and CNBC, we're coming for your bitch ass.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Ed, what sexual position guarantees the ugliest baby? What? Ask your father. Ask your father, Ed. Ask your father.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
A lot there. I agree with you, and I hate to say this, this is probably a buying opportunity. For this stock to get cut in half, it's probably because, to your point, there's so much regulatory capture. I mean, these are American companies donating money to American politicians such that they can implement laws such that we have to pay more for drugs.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
They were invented and manufactured here, then they pay in Mexico or Canada, such that these American companies and their CEOs and their shareholders can get rich through incremental price gouging of American households, where we have ended up with 40% of American households have some sort of medical or dental debt. And in America, we pay $13,000 per capita per consumer for our healthcare.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
It's just exceptionally rewarding to watch your growth and the growth of the team. Oh, I'm so used to virtue signaling. I can't even, I can't even like, I'm so used to being full of shit. By the way, the FT is doing a, the FT is no joke doing a profile. Let's get back to me. The FT is doing a profile on me. The FT really likes us. They let me write an article for them a few weeks ago.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
The UK, Canada, Australia, all the other G6 nations average around $6,500. So we're paying $6,500 more per person and we're more obese and die earlier and have more diabetes and more anxiety and depression. So we pay double for a product that is worse. If you were to figure out a way to bring those costs in line with the rest of the G6 who have better outcomes,
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
355 million people times $6,500, I think it's somewhere around $2.2 or $2.4 trillion. And those costs flow through our entitlements and drive up the cost of government. In addition, the amount of money and misery of people who have to work too hard, people who can't go to work because they're unhealthy –
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
All of this bullshit around make America healthy again is nothing but a distraction to talk about dyes and vaccines. It's a distraction from the real problems of the thing that is hurting America's income inequality. If you really wanted to make America healthier again, raise minimum wage to $25 an hour. You know, there are just too many people who are obese.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And the reason they're obese is because they work so damn hard. They don't have time to get to the gym and they don't have enough money. So they have to stuff themselves with the cheapest form of calories, which is fast food. But we don't want to have those difficult conversations. So we have to go after health care. And the only way you're going to go after health care is
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
is through figuring out Citizens United and getting lobbyists out of the picture here because they are literally raping and molesting the US consumer and creating 40% of America has dental or medical debt. Can you imagine the tax that puts on people's psyche and their levels of just prosperity and wellbeing and mental wellness?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And then you come back, I think what's happened is I think people are so pissed off at these companies That anytime someone in the DOJ or the FTC or whoever raises their hand and says, should we investigate these guys? I think they're very inclined to investigate these guys. I think they are pissed off at these companies. So there's two ways to look at it.
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
Is this the chickens coming home to roost? Or is this just a temporary blip where the Americans will move on to something else and the lobbyists will figure out a way to continue to charge Americans double what they pay anywhere else in the world for worse health outcomes such that their shareholders and the management of these companies can continue to soak America?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And the story that brings it all home for me, I read the most heartbreaking story. So the New York Times has... this section called Recent Weddings. Have you seen it? And it's just this lovely section where they have a nice picture of two people in Central Park, and it talks about their nuptials. So...
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
They bended the rules for the first time, and they did a wedding announcement of a young woman and a man, and did the whole full write-up, and she was in her gown, and they weren't getting married. And the reason they made an exception is this woman has a glioblastoma, she has an incurable brain cancer, right?
Prof G Markets
The GOP Tax Bill, United Health’s Terrible Week, & Chinese Tech Earnings
And she's decided that they're gonna get married, they're gonna have the ceremony, but they're not gonna get legally married, because she's worried he would inherit her medical debt. And I mean, you hear this shit and you're just like, Jesus Christ, this is the most prosperous nation in the world. And we're loving that like that kind of misery on people.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Barts and relationships and time with loved ones and going to the World Economic Forum and talking about big thoughts and climate change. To drive a company like this is a young woman's game. And what he should have done, in my view, was taken the chairman role, because I think 80% of his expertise right now could be leveraged 10, 20, 30 hours a week and kept someone else in the CEO position.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And also, I believe that luck is symmetrical. And in order for a company to have the kind of extraordinary success that Alphabet has recognized, that was a lot of luck. And I typically don't invest behind a person two times in a row because if it's super successful, I'm like, it's unlikely we're going to get lucky again.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And I know that's a weird thing to say, but I think a guy like Eric Schmidt, I don't get why he's doing this personally. I think he's in his mid-60s, maybe late 60s. It feels like maybe he's bored.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Well, actually, Bezos has stepped down. as CEO because he's realized he's about to die soon, so he wants yachts and thongs. I think he gets it. But I think the question everyone's asking is, Ed, why do you hate Eric Schmidt? No, look, the guy is the chairman of everyone's dreams. He's intensely smart, intensely well-connected.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
I just don't understand why a guy at that point in his life would want to do When you're the CEO of a startup, I speak from experience here, your inbox is never empty. And you have to be able to work 15 and 16 hour days. The only time I've ever really grown shareholder value is when, quite frankly, my personal life is a bit of a shit show.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Because the marketplace is competitive and gives advantage to people who are willing to do nothing but work all the fucking time. And this is not a Hallmark commercial. I'm not saying this is aspirational. And I think a lot of people go to work for big companies because
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
to leverage their IP, their distribution channels, and their platform, and their size, and the regulatory captures so they can work 40 to 50 hours a week, not 60 to 80. You want to be in a startup? You want to be in a company like this? I think it's table stakes, even for a guy like Eric Schmidt, to have to work around the clock.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Welcome to Prop G Markets. That's right. She came to... Let's talk about me. I was at Stern yesterday and I spoke to 500 students and Bella came. And yeah, I was super nice to everyone. And then she told me she works for us. I'm like, I pay you. I don't need to be nice to you. That's right. Anyways, welcome, Bella. Very good. Welcome, Bella. Let's talk about Priests.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And if I were him with his wealth at his age, there's no way I would do that. Anyways, I'm bullish on Eric Schmidt, but as a chairman, I think this is a bad idea for him to get back into the game like this.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Look at me. Not that I'm comparing myself to these individuals. I have Catherine Dillon run our company, so I can just make dick jokes and go to South by Southwest. That's what he should be doing.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
You're accurate. It is a rich kid. My interaction with the kingdom has mostly been around involvement with hedge funds, raising money and some of the investments they make. And I find that they're actually incredibly disciplined and very smart and that they hire the best and brightest from the alternative investments world to try and allocate their capital efficiently.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
In this instance, maybe their eyes are bigger than their stomach. Maybe it'll be scaled back. But I'd like to see more big, outrageous ideas proposed. I would like to see in the U.S. them say, we're going to spend several trillion dollars to build a national high-speed rail, at least up and down the eastern seaboard. I'd like to see some big, bold infrastructure announcements in the U.S.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
We did one. Our Infrastructure Act was $700 billion, I think. They have seven projects of over a trillion. It looks as if this one is probably unrealistic, but I think that a place like the kingdom has the money and the mandate to, quite frankly, be, I don't know, be out over their skis a little bit.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Let me give you the pluses and the minuses of consulting. It's a great company to start because it requires little capex. Your expenses and your assets go home in the elevator every night. And if you don't have business, you can lay off people. If you do have business, you can ramp up.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
So in the sense, services companies are good businesses to start because they don't require a lot of IP or dramatic capex. You can start a consulting company as I did by just getting a client. I got dryers and I got Levi Strauss and Company. and William Sonoma as my first clients. It's an incredible training if you want to be an athlete. You have to be a good communicator.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
You have to go to the analytics. You have to be good at managing relationships. You have to be able to sell. It really is training for a triathlon or a decathlon. I think it's a fantastic—if you're coming out of business school and think, I want a second MBA, but I want it in the private sector, consulting is a fantastic training. It turns you into a great athlete. You make good money.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
You never get really wealthy. That's the downside because the barriers of entry here, it's a multiple of EBITDA business. When I started my second consulting firm, L2, which I called Business Strategy, I turned it from intermittent consulting engagements. I used to charge Williams-Sonoma half a million dollars to do their internet strategy.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Instead, I said to Nike, give me a quarter of a million a year, and I'll meet with you every three months and just look at data and give you advice. It is a very taxing business. Again, see above, it's a young woman's game. It's very taxing on your health and your relationships because When you're in the services business, you're always someone else's bitch.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Actually, this happened to me three times. The CMO of Audi, who was my biggest client, called and said, Scott, we love you. Can you be on Ingolstadt tomorrow? And the answer was always, yeah, yeah. I'll get on a fucking plane from San Francisco flying to Munich.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Being coach, because it was my money back then, with six young people trying to figure out a PowerPoint presentation of what we were going to say to Audi that they hadn't heard from McKinsey and bomb to the Kinkos when we got to Munich at 9 a.m. to print this thing out and then fly back to San Francisco the next day, it takes a real toll on your relationships and your health.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
It's a very taxing industry. It's also you make a good living. But it's hard to get really wealthy in consulting because it's all current income. I found it fucking exhausting. I don't want to golf or have dinner. If you're having golf and dinner with people you don't really like, it means you're in an undifferentiated industry. What do you mean by that?
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
I mean, the truly great companies don't need to socialize with their clients. And also, if you're spending time, a lot of time getting taken to basketball games or dinners by third-party vendors, it means you're paying too much. It means you're getting ripped off.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
So Vanguard's not going to take you out to lunch, but your wealth advisor from name the brokerage who takes you to a basketball game, that means she is charging you onerous fees. That's a great point. Anyways, the services business is we're all selling the same shit, and the way we differentiate is relationships. Anyways, that's my TED Talk on the services business. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Support for the show comes from Public.com. All right. If you're serious about investing, you need to know about Public.com. That's where you can invest in everything, stocks, options, bonds, and more. They even offer some of the highest yields in the industry, including the bond account 6% or higher yield that remains locked in even if the Fed cuts rates. Bottom line?
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
I'm now Pete Townsend. I'm the most talented member of the band, but fucking, what's his face? The lead singer? What's that guy's name? I don't even know who Pete Townsend is. Oh, Jesus Christ. Exactly. You're going to have a panic attack hearing that. He was the lead guitarist of The Who.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Thank you so much for having me. Member FINRA and SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. I should also disclose I am an investor in public. Now, prediction markets, on the other hand, or even the stock market, which can swing wildly on a headline, those will keep you on the edge of your seat.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
But with real estate investing, there's no drama or adrenaline or excuses to refresh your portfolio every few minutes. Just bland and boring stuff, including diversification and dividends. So you won't be surprised to learn the Fundrise flagship real estate fund is a complete snooze fest.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
The fund holds $1.1 billion worth of institutional caliber real estate managed by a team of pros focused on steadily growing your net worth for decades to come. See? Boring. And that's the point.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
You can start investing in minutes and with as little as $10 by visiting Fundrise.com slash Prop G. Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Fundrise Flagship Fund before investing. Find this information and more in the fund's prospectus at Fundrise.com slash Flagship. This is a paid ad.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
But the front man, Richard Daltrey, who starred in a great movie, Pinball Wizard, very handsome, better looking than the more talented... Pete Townsend, this is where I'm going. Everyone's like, oh, oh, Roger Daltrey, not giving any love to the real talent, Peter Townsend. And that's what it feels like at South by Southwest. Everyone's like, oh, Prof G, what?
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Well, as you know, I like to ground everything in a personal parable so I can talk more about me. So tariffs coming in, you charge a tariff. We charge tariff on aluminum and steel. And the rationale was we need to maintain a healthy domestic production or supply of steel. That kind of makes sense. If we go to war, we need tanks. We don't want to be too vulnerable.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
So great, Cleveland Cliffs and U.S. Steel saw their earnings go up because their product became more competitive because foreign imports became more expensive. But that additional incremental income was vastly outweighed by the decrease in demand for products that had to dramatically increase their prices because of the additional cost of the input of steel and aluminum into their products.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
So we're net losers, even when they pay the tariff and there's no reciprocal tariff. And this comes back to my first parable. I don't know if you've noticed when we're on this show, I angle my head to the left. I guess I haven't. Now I'm noticing. You need to start investing in this relationship. You never notice.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
You haven't noticed all the Pilates I've been doing to try and be more attractive to you either, you awful person. Oh, no. I've noticed that for sure. By the way, I fucking hate Pilates. Angle of your face. All right. The angle of my face. My nose goes to the right. And the reason why it goes to the right is when I first moved to New York, I was bored, too much time on my hands.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
I was doing yoga and I was doing boxing. And I got a trainer, this guy, this boxing guy, and I'd spar with him. And he convinced me, he's like, you know, you got pretty good hand speed, you're in good shape. Why don't you enter this boxing tournament at this gym, this boxing gym we belong to? And I'm like, was stupid enough to think that was a good idea. So I'm 6'2", 190.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
You're not a fan of Megan Rapinoe? I think there's a little sexism in here. There are a lot of amazing female athletes that you have not mentioned at that dinner. There were. I wasn't that into women's soccer at the time. Jesus, Claire. Can you believe this guy? Bella, I apologize.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
It ends up that a guy who's 5'9", and 190, and knows how to box is fucking Mike Tyson. So I get into the ring with this guy. All I hear, all I remember was the bell. And the next thing I remember was all of these bright lights because I was flat on my back. The amount of money I would pay to watch this fight, it's crazy. Oh my God. And my nose has never straightened. My nose now goes to the right.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And here's the thing. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Arguably one of the greatest football players in history, but you didn't bring her up. I didn't, but Andy Roddick. You brought up the white dude that plays tennis.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And you went to Princeton, right? I did, yeah. Six foot three, white male. Figures. Privileged. The patriarchy. Oh, my God. Thank God I've got Claire. I totally agree with that. But literally on that stage of us with us was Megan Rapinoe, arguably one of the greatest, you know, football players in history.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Her wife, Sue Bird, a retired WNBA player who was also, I think, won the NCAA championship two or three times.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Is that on your Wikipedia page who pays you? I don't have a Wikipedia page.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
So supposedly, SoftBank was about to lead a round into open AI at a valuation of between $260 and $300 pre-money, putting a $40 billion round, putting it at a post of $300, a post of $340. I think the insecurity in the market right now is probably going to give them a reason to hit the sanity button and either get different terms or better terms or not do this investment.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
It strikes me that valuing OpenAI, as amazing a company as it is, as valuable or as impactful as AI is going to be, I would imagine a lot of his investors are like, it's beginning to smell a lot like WeWork. I guess my prediction is I'm not sure this round is going to close on the terms initially reported in the press because it hasn't closed yet. And it just feels to me this is too rich.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
If you're a limited partner in SoftBank, basically Masayoshi-san has tried to convince you that within five years, this will be one of the 10 most valuable companies in the world because it's going to have to have a trillion dollar plus market cap. to justify the kinds of returns for this type of risk, I think that is a difficult argument to make with any level of certainty right now.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Is OpenAI an amazing company at 50 or 100 billion? Absolutely. At 300 billion? I don't know. That feels very toppy to me, Ed.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
This industry is arguably one of the more seminal technologies in history. The ability to, my parents had to crawl across the Atlantic over seven to nine days getting seasick to get to America. Now you can get, you can realistically fly from London to New York in about seven hours. And if you book well ahead, you can do it for $400.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
I mean, it's just this technology has been such an unbelievable unlock for economic growth, ability to see your family more regularly, mobility of capital to its greatest return. It's been just an enormous breakthrough. Airlines, if you net out all their profits and all their costs so far, are breakeven. It's been a shitty business. Differentiation is near impossible in this industry.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
What do they have? They're all flying the same tin cans. They're all flying one of two planes from one of two manufacturers, Airbus or Boeing. They're all flying into the same airport. It's very hard to differentiate on labor or service. And Southwest was able to find differentiation around a brand. That meant freedom. OK, you just got fired. You want to head to Vegas. You make a reservation.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
You need to change it. No change fees. We're not going to nickel and dime you with bags. It's freedom. It's the ability. It was total cost structure. Even the planes are super fucking ugly. They're orange because they found early on. that that was the paint that was most overordered and they could get the lowest cost on.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
They had all 737s for a long time to create scale around repair and maintenance. Everything was about low cost to give you economic freedom to take your human capital where and when you wanted. This is exactly what you just said, and that is somebody has done the analysis that says, okay, this cost of free bags is greater than the brand equity bump we're getting.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
In the short term, they will absolutely recognize a really substantial increase to the bottom line. But in an environment where it is so difficult to establish differentiation, I think they are trading off long-term margin for short-term stock gain. I remember one of my first clients who started a strategy firm in my second year of business school, one of my first clients was Dreyer's.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And this CMO who was just incredibly smart, this guy named Tyler Johnston. And we were going into a recession, this was 1992. And I said, well, why don't you just take down marketing spend? They were a company that was always about to be acquired by a bigger food company, which ultimately they were for a lot of money.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And he said, you can't take down, you always have to be disciplined about brand and marketing spend. Otherwise, all you're doing is juicing your bottom line and trading off long-term strength. And I think that's quite frankly what they're probably doing here. I haven't seen the numbers. The people from Elliott are very smart.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
But in an environment that is almost near impossible to maintain, establish and maintain differentiation, this was a tangible point of differentiation. So I would call this short-term financial engineering at the cost of long-term differentiation of margin power.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Today's number, five inches. That's the length of a live turtle that a Pennsylvanian man attempted to smuggle through airport security in his pants last week. True story, Ed. I was blessed with a seven-inch dick, but now the priest is in jail. Ed, how are you? Ed, how are you? I'm just putting it together in my head. We have all these young interns.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And by the way, I love hot dogs. Last night I decided to share a hot dog with a homeless person, and he said, fuck off, get your own hot dog. Anyways, let me be serious for a second. So I started a company called Red Envelope. And we spent a disparate, basically, I love benchmarking, which is consultant speak for ripping off other people's IP.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And I was always fascinated with Tiffany, specifically how much IP and brand associations he managed to inject into this aquamarine blue box and that elegance, sophistication. romance, Audrey Hepburn. And I said, I'm going to start a company that is the Tiffany of hip, urban, progressive, more erotic sensibilities.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And we came up, we spent a lot of time and a lot of money on a beautiful red box with a gorgeous bow. And we had people in our fulfillment center who tie the bow with hands. When a machine ties a bow, it looks like a drunk guy with big thumbs tied it. It just looks weird. And it was really expensive.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And someone did the analysis and said that we actually have negative margin on some of our least expensive products when you put it in this beautiful red box. And I said, you don't get it. That is key to our brand. And so this is simply, this is why managers are supposed to get paid really well. They have to trade off
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
The temptation to add everything to the bottom line while managing long-term investments that create sustainable margin and brand power. And the thing about luxury brands and the thing about great brand builders, the analogy I use is like working out. When you work out, it's time expensive, it's a pain, and you're sore. And so is brand building. It's expensive.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And the next day, it just fucking hurts. But if you're disciplined about spending and offering the services that buttress your brand associations, over time, you get stronger. You have an easier time. getting supplier relationships. You have an easier time recruiting employees. You have an easier time raising prices.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
But in a company like Southwest, I would be very careful to remove any tangible point of differentiation. I mean, how on earth do these guys compete against each other? What is Southwest's value proposition or differentiation now? Like, what is it? Well, we're just Southwest. We're orange. I mean, what is it? Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Yeah, I think you're being unfair. So there's two sides of this trade. And that is the way corporate governance and decisions get made is that shareholders get to decide who are the board members and the board members get to decide who would be best for stakeholders, which is Latin for shareholders.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
They're literally just note to self, exhibit 22B. If I don't keep giving them increase, they're literally every day balancing the money they'll get from the lawsuit that I'll settle out of court. Only upside for us. Oh, we have a new intern. Wait, who's the new one? That's probably Bella you're talking about, who just came on full time. No longer an intern. Oh, Bella. Hey, Bella.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And the board decided that to get a guy like Eric Schmidt, who is arguably one of the most lauded, successful CEOs in history, to come run their firm, which sounds like it was struggling, quite frankly, is they decided, yeah, that is absolutely worth it. And I would imagine the value of the company is up substantially just on that press release.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
So there's two sides of this trade, including if the CEO had control of the company because he didn't have to raise a lot of money or he was doing so well that he had that kind of credibility with the board, he could have decided what to do. And maybe he did decide that it makes sense for Eric Schmidt to take over. Now, having said that, I would not invest in this thing.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
I'm ageist when it comes to startups, and that is when Eric Schmidt took over Google, he was much younger and probably willing to put all relationships and all vacations aside for a while. And now he's a billionaire in his 60s who's probably in the midst of, like many of us. of a realization that he's going to be dead soon, and he's not going to work his ass off. He's going to focus on St.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And my proposal would be the following. I would like tuition to go up another $10,000 in the form of a tax on every kid's family that is in private school, such that they can pour more money back into public schools. Because here's the problem. I went to a public school And it was in the 70s in LA, and it was the year they started integration or busing. And this isn't a Hallmark story.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Overnight, 40% of our class was Black kids who were on a bus from Compton for an hour each day. And the idea would be we'd all get along and have great empathy for each other, and we fucking hated each other. And we used to have black against white softball games, and the faculty allowed it. That's the bad news. The good news was that by the time we got to high school, we were getting along.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I genuinely believe that over the long term, I've established a lot more empathy for people not born with pale skin and outdoor plumbing and got to grow up in Westwood. But my two best friends, Adam and David, immediately their parents pulled them out of school and sent them to this Tony private school called Windward, where they'd go to Catalina Island and study marine biology.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Oh, my gosh. What was that? Some push-ups? I saw you doing something off mic. Secretary Hegsatz said that he did five rounds of 47 push-ups. So I'm committed to doing five rounds of 48 because I'm already very excited about whoever's going to be 48. And I did two sets of 48. So I'm trying to figure out, I'm on TikTok and YouTube, trying to figure out how to increase your push-up numbers.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I went home and said to my mom, I need to go to private school. And she said, I had one of those, what I call talks where she sat me down and said, we're different. What we need to do in private schools, quite frankly, is tax the shit out of them and reinvest in public schools. So the fact that private schools are going up in cost, that doesn't bother me at all.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I would like to see them go up more in cost in the form of taxation and then reinvest it in public schools, because the key signal or the key metric of success of K-12 schools isn't even resources. It's parental involvement. And dual-parent households typically have one or two parents who can spend more time being involved in the school.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
But when you pull out all of those wealthy parents, all of those typically dual-income, dual-parent households, the amount of parental involvement in that school declines and the quality of the education spirals down. Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
A lot of it comes down to this. The number you skipped over that Mia pulled together for us was that AI-specific VC funding you got in percentages was $97 billion in the United States. It was $9 billion in Europe. And keep in mind, the US and Europe actually have similar-sized economies. It really all comes down to a risk complexion.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And the way I summarize it when I'm speaking to a European audience is that you're the ones that stayed. And that is, think about who went to America. They were risk takers. And that DNA just carries through. You think that's why Americans are more risk aggressive? It's genetic? Oh, my God. Are you kidding? Look at what is the most innovative part of America? California? Yeah.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And who went to California? The people with a nice, cozy life on the East Coast? Who went to the West Coast? I'm with you. I'm with you. I want to hear more. When you talk about success, this is true in life. If you want to score above your weight class professionally and romantically, it's a function of how much risk you're willing to take. I agree with that.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
My parents came to the U.S., on a steamship with like three or $400, that was enormous risk. And also that's why immigrants are so incredibly powerful. They not only work harder, they're like, I just fucking crawled under a fence and avoided dogs and left my family and left my sick mother to come here. That risk-taking DNA is everywhere in our gene pool. And it's not, it's not in Europe.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Strength. But anyways, Ed, what's going on with you? What's going on with you as I try to out-push up the DUI hire, Secretary Hegseth? What's going on with you?
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Well, Europe has to do something, because Europe, if you look at the rise of China— It actually, so China has grown its economy much faster than the global economy. And it has the second most billionaires behind the U.S. And it hasn't come at the cost of the U.S., though. The U.S. has maintained its share of GDP, its share of billionaires, its share of growth. It's come at the cost of Europe.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And so Europe needs to take a page out of that hardworking playbook of China and that risk-taking playbook of the United States. And without government subsidies that encourage people to take these risks, it's just not going to happen.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup. Episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube. By the way, I absolutely love Vivintu. I think she does a great job.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Hola, Eduardo. ¿Dónde está la biblioteca? Where are you staying? It looks like a nice hotel.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Look, I'm just pissed off. Now, after this drawdown today, I'm only up 500%, not 600. Is that true? Is that the number? Well, price at $35. Let's find out the number. Price at $35, it's at 200. So what is that? Up about 450%. Yeah, okay. And that's in seven months? Yeah. Wow. This was a fucking layup.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
This was, if you believe we're in an attention economy and you can transition or arbitrage or turn convert attention into dollars, this company still has a long way to go. And that is, I mean, it was up 71% year on year. Average revenue was up 28%. Net income quadrupled to 71 million.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I think that a lot of people just said, okay, with this kind of valuation, maybe it's gotten out over its skis, but I think it's already recovered some of those losses today. It's an asset-like company. It's got sort of meta-like margins of 93%. Meta's gross margins were 82% because they keep making these ridiculous CapEx investments and things like headsets.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Get this, because of Alphabet's big investments in cloud and AI, their gross margins are 58%. Apple's was 47%, which makes sense because they're on hardware. But gross margins at the fourth or fifth most trafficked site in the world are 93%. So... I would argue and see above shareholder. I mean, it's still, I don't want to say it looks cheap.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
It's hard to think of something up four and a half fold that looks cheap, but it's worth is between 50 and 60. It's one 50th the value of sites above and behind it. So now the problem is it hasn't been able to monetize as well, but with year on year revenue increases of 70 plus percent, It appears that it's doing pretty well.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
The problem is, unless its monetization comes up, its average revenue per user was $4.20, but meta is about three and a half times higher. So on a book level, it looks expensive. Their key is very straightforward. They got the traffic. That's usually the hard part. They have to show their ability to continue to increase ARPU.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
But the takeaway also going second order of fact, we've said that as it relates to podcasting, that there's going to be this incredible dynamism there. in the podcasting space over the next 12 months, where you're going to see at the top 100 podcasts, you're going to see 50 new ones and you're going to see 50 drop out.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And the arbiter of that churn is going to be YouTube, which is now the largest distribution platform for podcasts. People spending more time listening to podcasts on YouTube than on Apple or Spotify. I think in 2026, the arbiter of podcasts and the biggest growing distribution mechanism of podcasts is going to be Reddit. I think Reddit is so perfect for podcasting.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Think about the discussions, the threads, and the audience. I think if you could figure out a way to distribute clips, full podcasts, live podcasts, to me, it's just out of central casting to become... the Spotify or the YouTube of podcasting. That's very interesting.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
My father peaked at the age of about 48 or 49 professionally, and then he was the national sales manager for O.M. Scott's, a fertilizer company, which I realize is kind of a weak flex. But he used to roam around to the equivalent of Lowe's and Home Depot's and Sears and become buddies with the person in charge of lawn care, the lawn care outdoor department there.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And my dad is super fucking charming. I mean, ridiculously charming. And then sell them basically bags of shit. And anyways, but that was when he peaked and then he went on, you know, and then he'd started a string of four or five divorces and then left me. Hold me, Ed. Hold me. Anyways, he used to say to me, he had all these tests to decide if I'd be a good salesperson or not.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I remember we used to sell subscriptions and whatever. Sorry, to test if you would be a good salesperson? Yeah. He thought sales was everything. And he used to sign me up for stuff, like selling magazine subscriptions. And he used to give me a thing, and he'd say, this is your rap. And he'd practice with me at the door, and he'd send me out on a Saturday.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Ask me what my favorite place to vacation in the world is as someone who's been literally everywhere. What is your favorite place to vacation in the world? Mexico. If I could only vacation one place... Would it be Mexico? I think it might be Mexico. Maybe Italy? Mexico, yeah. Really? Yeah, it's fantastic.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And basically, like mothers used to say, they're Roman warriors. Come home with your shielder on it. And he's like, how many subscriptions do you think you're going to get? He'd give me a quota. I'm like eight fucking years old. I kind of love this. I was eight. I'm sure it was traumatizing, but I kind of love this.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I'd roam around the Shores community in Laguna Niguel and I'd knock on doors and I'd say, hi, I'm Scott Galloway. I'm at whatever it was, Emelita. And we're doing a magazine drive to try and raise money for our school. I live down the road. And he'd say, throw in your interest. And I'm like, I like the big wheel. And I like, I dream a genie. And he'd be like, no, don't say I dream a genie.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I'm like, he'd say something else. I'm like, Brady Bunch is like, better, more wholesome. Yeah. And I'd roam around the neighborhood.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I'd roam around the neighborhood. And I'm not exaggerating it. I sold more subscriptions to Life and Reader's Digest than any nine-year-old in Emelita Elementary School history. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Oh, yeah. You have it all in Mexico. You have culture. You have amazing food. The pricing is crazy.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I had, like, great meals, and it's been, you know... It's like getting sweet green, practically. It's got sort of that Mykonos amazing beach, beautiful water vibe for about 40% of the price. And the people are friendlier. Also, it's got extraordinary architecture, incredible food. I just absolutely adore it. Max, anyways, I'm glad you're there.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And then I saw the first one. You weren't? I thought this was your idea, no? It was my idea. And then I thought, okay, we spend so much time on our No Mercy, No Malice newsletter. It's taken us 10 years to get to half a million subscribers. We really haven't figured out a way to monetize it, quite frankly. That's not why we started it.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Jake Tapper's book club? Exactly. That wasn't riveting content?
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Well, it would be Scott and Ed. So I think eventually Netflix goes into news and they do a loop where they – so a daily business update where it's more highly produced, more graphics, more visuals. And also if you were going to do a regular podcast every week, what I think you'd want to do if you're talking about – your guest is Richard Reeves.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
You take 15 or 20 minutes and you go talk to parents and young men. You just, quite frankly, you take podcasting and you just massively increase the production value. Because right now, the means of production are—and this is the thing I love about podcasting and the thing that scares me about this—is the means of production are basically what looks like a toiletry kit for me. And that is Drew—
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
who's our tech wizard, puts together this little dop kit for me. And it's the size, it's smaller than a lunch pail or like literally like a toiletry kit. And I can take it anywhere and pull out my mic plug it into my laptop, and boom, I'm podcasting. The game is going to be upped. And you're going to see podcasts where it's an hour-long podcast, but they'll do breakouts.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And when we're talking about Reddit, it breaks to like a three-minute thing where they're interviewing the CEO or they use amazing visuals to go online and talk about Reddit and what's interesting about it. But the game, the bar is going to be raised. And they have such incredible...
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
depth of talent that they'll be able to say okay scott and ed if you want to do a daily market show we have an unbelievable production team and not only in new jersey but in madrid and when you're done recording at seven at 7 p.m we have our folks in la take it over then they throw it over the wall to the folks in madrid at three in the morning where it's eight in the morning their time and they produce just this really impressive podcast meets hollywood if you will
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
But it's just this monkey on my back mostly come Thursday night when I'm like, okay, what am I going to write about that people would actually want to read and doesn't embarrass everybody? And then I thought, okay, the notion of another newsletter. And then when I saw the work that Mia and team had done on the design and we have already sent out a test batch and people –
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Let me put it this way. The days of me just tapping in from the Dolphin Hotel in Walt Disney World and getting a quarter of a million people to listen that day with the bad curtains in the background, I'm not sure that shit's going to survive. Well, that is the big question.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
We should tease. We're thinking—well, we're not thinking. We've decided Prop G Markets, which is the fastest-growing part of our— Podcast empire. We're going to go to daily. And one of the things we're talking about is, all right, Scott's traveling all the time. Scott doesn't want to work that hard. And how do we incorporate Scott into a daily show?
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And you guys came up with this notion of, and it's being done on authenticity, that it's like, where in the world is Scott? And I would literally tap in on my phone wherever I am and just provide a viewpoint. And your view and Claire's view, and I thought it was really insightful, was rather than trying to mimic Scott,
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
80 of the production value when i'm in studio just put it on your phone and it's just wherever you are at that moment and ed is asking questions or you're giving your view but go the other way and make it very raw like live from the bar at maison estelle or wherever i'm getting drunk you know scott go into a bathroom stall and and tell us what you think about the reddit earnings
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
but I thought that was really interesting. But whatever Netflix does, everything is sort of colliding back to where what's old is new again, right? We're kind of reassembling the cable bundle. It's advertising, but it's also subscription. But I think that podcasts are going to become more like TV than TV is going to become like podcasts.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Anyways, I think it's going to be fascinating to see, but it's just, you hear this and you just know in 24 months, there's a non-zero probability that what... Everyone's talking about YouTube and podcasts. People are going to start talking about Netflix and podcasts. I also think Reddit.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
It's about who controls, who has custody of the consumer, who has the trust and the direct vertical interface with the consumer. Okay, let's take a look at the week ahead.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
People seem to really like it. I think we're going to be close to 200 or 250,000 subscribers right out of the gate. So now I like it, and yes, it was my idea.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I can't help it. I'm a broken clock here. Tesla is imploding. It's absolutely imploding. Its sales are off between 10% and 60% across European nations. It was off, I believe they're off 11% in China. In a growing market, BYD is producing as good a car for 40% of the price. They haven't had a new vehicle, a new kind of mass vehicle introduction in over six years.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
When I'm getting into Teslas, and I'm biased, but I think they just feel stale. I think the competition has caught up and even surpassed them. And then I think about what he's done with the brand, just trashing it with Nazi salutes, like the model Tesla SS and changing his pronouns to he and Himmler. I just think this is going to catch up. It already is. And you're seeing sales imploding.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Meanwhile, it has this just ridiculous fucking multiple. And I've always said this, that stock prices... are like Michael Jordan jumping from the free throw line. It feels like he's never going to come down, and he always does. And fundamentals, I don't care if you're GameStop. I don't care if you're True Social. At some point, Michael Jordan hits the hardwood again.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I think the stock is below 200 in the next six months. Good luck. We've said this before.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
But we'll see. Yeah, I'm sticking to my guns here. It is time. It is time.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Do you want to hear my other movie impression? Yes, please. And I'll ask you to guess who it is. Okay. Okay, ready? How about no? Who is that?
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
That's right. That's right. What is that movie? The Spy Who Loved Me. You're Getting Warmer. You're Getting Warmer. Mike Myers. Austin Powers. There you go. Very good. Anyways. That's good. Inflation.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I would say probably the biggest impact it's going to have, with the exception of consumers who really feel it, especially those who, you know, energy, housing and food takes up the disproportionate amount of their income, which is 80 or 90% of the American consumer.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
It's that the market is going to have to absorb the fact that the expected interest rates probably aren't coming as quickly as they thought or in the foreseeable future. The number that pops out to me, and I had someone who basically ran Obama's campaign call me because I was just on CNN, where, by the way, I dropped an F-bomb, no joke, on CNN. That's not good.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And Dana Bash, who I think should be president if we're going to start picking cable news hosts to be presidents and secretaries. asked me what the Democratic Party needs to do. And I listed all these things and I'm saying, and some, we need to be the party of tomorrow and not fucking around. And then I said that, I'm like, oh no, I'm not on a podcast on it.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And literally, Dana and the other hosts looked at me like they just got me masturbating. They did not know what to do. They've never had that before? Oh, it's happened several times. I was raised by a single mother and I was, oh wait, you mean dropping an F-bomb. I'm sorry. That was good. That's why you come here. Subscribe to our markets newsletter now.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I don't think you're going to be on CNN again after this. Well, if I don't get another show on CNN+, as far as I'm concerned, my life is over. That's it. Anyway, but I was talking. One of the Obama people called me and said, I liked what you had to say, and he specifically zeroed in on, I think, the big idea that the Democrats need. We need to move from being –
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
the party of complaints and whining and the, you know, seniors who changed jello night outrage to the party of the future.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I think one of the really interesting ideas that one or both political parties should forward is just a massive program to provide subsidies to the private sector and decreases the ability to reject housing permits such that we have a massive influx and creation of millions of units of new housing stock. And I think this would help level up young people.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And it's just psychologically so important. Employ a ton of people, especially a lot of young people, especially a lot of young men who over-index around construction and vocational jobs. But what you're seeing every month is an increase in housing costs. I mean, do you know what's about to happen? I have a buddy in LA who had his house on the market, like a nice little bungalow.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
for $1.1 million, which basically means it was a shack if it was in Santa Monica. And he just got an offer for 1.8, because something like 13 or 15,000 dwellings have been taken immediately out of the market in LA because of the wildfires. So I zero in on the housing, but this isn't a surprise. The question is whether it sticks to Trump or not, as most things don't.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Today's number, .004%. That's the chance of being born with a genetic mutation that allows you to sleep less than six and a half hours each night without any ill effects. True story. Last night, I had six hours of straight sleep. The other two were gay, but I woke up fulfilled.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
But when you combined an incredibly aggressive anti-immigration policy tariffs, and then massive deficit or a fiscal plan that probably indicates an explosion in our deficits, this all adds up to inflation. I would predict it's actually going to get worse. What are your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I left Manhattan because when my kids were applying to school, I think it was pre-K. I think my oldest was four years old or three years old. And let me be clear, the story ends well. He's a star now and doing incredibly well. But when he was three or four, he was speech delayed.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And they have something called a play date, which is really just an interview where they invite a bunch of the kids who are applicants to play with each other. And then there's these three young Gestapo Stasi people in the room pretending to like your kid taking notes, which is really comfortable. And they did this game where they go around a circle and they play.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
hit their hands on the floor and go, I like daisies. My name is Lisa. And the next one, my name, you know, I like ice cream and my name is Bob. And then they get to my son and he hits his hands on the floor and he's like, that's it. He's just looking around. And I'm like, he's not getting in. And we applied to seven schools and they all send out the letters. on the same day.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Let's enjoy it while it lasts. Today's discussion on property markets. I'm out of breath, by the way, because I did about seven minutes of working out. Yeah, I can tell.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I was told by a friend of ours who was coaching us around this one school we want to go to, make sure you drop off muffins to the admissions director. I drop off muffins and I'm like, I'm not fucking dropping off muffins. That's where I draw the line at muffins. And I was under the illusion, oh, I'm a big time professor, podcaster, we'll get into three or four, if not five or six of schools.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
We got into zero of the seven. And I was so upset that no one was going to let me pay $58,000 for my kid to play with blocks that I said to my partner, I said, I've been single and an entrepreneur my whole life or most of my life. I'm used to rejection. I am not used to it for my four-year-old. And we left New York. The issue with K-12 is the following. I have no problem with tuition going up.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
One of the things you're saying that's really interesting is that if you listen to Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony during the Great Financial Recession, he talks about the Great or the Depression. And he said, while everyone was focused on the stock market, he said the thing that really took us into depression was the credit markets.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And the stock market is more fun to look at, but it's really the credit markets are much bigger than the stock market and are much more influential on everyday business. And my thesis is the following, that the president has access to more information than any individual in the world. He has access to the best security apparatus. He has access to the best economists.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
He really is the person that could do the most insider trading, which I think this is going on. But distinct to that, he has the most information. And this is what I think happened. The adult in the room is the 10-year. We've been saying this. And I think he got information the following, and that is companies are cutting their spending. They're paralyzed. They don't know what to do.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
They're cutting their spending. Companies are rerouting the supply chain. Every economic indicator is that there's less money and less activity. At the same time, interest rates are going up. That is stagflation. That takes you potentially into a depression because
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
If the cost of capital goes up as productivity and spending is going down, that is literally nitro and glycerin that explodes into stagflation and then a depression. I think he got both those data points. And someone said, this is really, really bad. And probably just as importantly, Alyssa was wearing a yellow ribbon to signify the hostages. Do you think she was doing that to impress me?
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I just made that up. I'm proud of that. That's good. That'll get the people going. And for those of you who think I have Trump derangement syndrome, I have this thing called capitalism and democracy addiction syndrome. I really love Netflix and I love... you know, living somewhere nice. And I love rule of law. And I love people who make smart decisions and prosperity.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Their incompetence is just bursting at the seams here. They can't even coordinate their messaging. And although I don't think Bill's coordinating, well, I don't know this, but that Stephen Miller tweet and that David Sachs tweet, that was written by a White House communications director that works for Dear Leader. I mean, look at how just similarly sycophantic it is.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
It doesn't sound like the same person writing this shit. I mean, those guys, you know, not I don't know. David is a smart guy, regardless of what you think of his politics. That just so that sounded so ridiculous. So they're clearly coordinating on tweets, but they can't get their message straight when they go on CNBC.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And, oh, they're not freaked out about the market, but they they're going on CNBC every fucking day. Oh, we don't care. No, the credit markets didn't make us do this, but we need to go on CNBC to tell everyone the credit markets didn't make us do this. I mean, the level of, I don't know, just constitutional... necrophilia here, combined with the incompetence of these guys going left, going right.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I mean, at some point, we got numb to the fact that, oh, the economy can survive this level of incompetence. And I've said this to you before, pulling the knife halfway out of the back of the economy by pausing the tariffs. This again weakens our hand. We're pausing the tariffs. This guy is blinking left and right. What was the impetus?
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
They were trying to accomplish a few things, according to them. One, bring jobs, good manufacturing jobs back to America. Two, reconfigure global trade to our advantage. And three, raise a bunch of money through tariffs. All right. Tariffs never increase the treasury.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
They might protect an industry, an infant industry like in South Korea or ensure a certain level of domestic production, but they don't – they're not revenue – generators, tariffs. On the whole, they reduce revenues too. Reconfigure the supply chain to our advantage. It's done exactly the opposite. We have Fox checked.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
He is reconfiguring the global supply chain, but he's reconfiguring it in a way that is to our huge disadvantage. I mean, enormous disadvantage. And then the notion we were going to bring back American jobs. The average assembly worker in Shenzhen working for Foxconn who builds the iPhone makes about $6,000 a year. So Apple has said, here's an idea.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Let's outsource the really shitty low-paying jobs to And let's hold on to the design, the business development, the store technology, the strategy, the marketing, all of the jobs that pay kind of like 200, 300, 400 grand a year. And we'll outsource the jobs that pay $6,000 a year.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I'm just so into this whole prosperity and rights thing. And I've gotten so used to it. So Megyn Kelly is super easy to find. If you're looking for people to justify, like say he's playing 4D chess, right? No, he's not even playing fucking Jenga or checkers. He's playing Russian roulette. with everyone's prosperity. I am in a bad mood today, Ed. I can tell.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And by the way, that unlocks more margin, more profit that Apple then reinvests in growing their market, which creates more high-paying jobs. It just cracks me up that these folks think that they're going to bring back these fantastic manufacturing jobs. And I love that stat. The Cato Institute did a survey on manufacturing, and 80% of Americans think that we need more manufacturing.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
There's a romanticization of manufacturing. But only 20% of Americans want to work in manufacturing. Ed, let me ask you this. Now, granted, you went to Princeton and you're a little bit of a debutante, but do you have any friends that are just dying to get into manufacturing? Yeah. Seriously. No. We're the second largest manufacturer already.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
It's not like, and our manufacturing is high value add. We put together really cool shit that we can sell for a lot more money than it costs to bring. It's really complicated. It's really value add.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And the quote unquote lower value add stuff that quite frankly, they can find people who decide, all right, if I move in from a rural town in a province in China and I make 500 bucks a month, that's an upgrade of my quality of life. And it's just hilarious that the fact that what Trump has not calculated in his quote-unquote game theory is that Americans will not endure very much pain.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I mean, the Chinese will endure a lot of pain. Russians will send a million of their young men to die. We lose 57,000 in Vietnam. We leave even though the Viet Cong has lost a million men. I mean, our tolerance for pain, our threshold for pain – We're the men of the species.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And that is because of childbirth, women are born with the ability to a much higher tolerance for pain because they have to endure childbirth. We're the men. We're the ones like, well, fuck that. That hurts too much. Stop. Stop. And China and Russia are the women in the sense they will endure much more pain than we will.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
You bring in all of a sudden, if you announce the first iPhone that goes on sale here for twenty one hundred bucks. Again, he's going to blink. Americans won't tolerate that. They will not tolerate. The first time the 77% of toys under the Christmas tree go up, doubling costs, and American households have to cut the number of toys under the tree in half. Americans won't tolerate that.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
They'll burn their MAGA hats. So the notion, what he doesn't realize is, yeah, maybe on a dollar-per-dollar basis, we can hurt these guys more than they hurt us, not taking into effect that the dollar we get is usually a higher margin, much higher market cap dollar. These folks are willing to endure much more pain than the American consumer. He is playing with such a weak hand right now.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
With LPL Financial, we remove the things holding you back and provide the services to help push you forward. If you're a financial advisor, what if you could have more freedom but also more support? Ready to invest? What if you could have an advisor that really understood you?
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
When it comes to your finances, your business, your future, at LPL Financial, we believe the only question should be, what if you could?
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
No one gets out of this alive. I mean, there'll be a few people who... bought puts or something and show their picture on Reddit or whatever, there'll be a few quote-unquote speculators that win. But 99%, I mean, there's so many cohorts they're going to lose here. Let's talk about people hoping to retire. And they thought, wow, the markets have done great. They thought, okay, I can retire.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Well, that's maybe not as true now. Families, If these tariffs are anything resembling what they're stating, the example I use is toys under the Christmas tree. They're just immediately going to fill it. Young people, what do you think has happened to hiring in the last week? I got to imagine so many people recruiting at colleges, high schools.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
You finally get an interview of said, hey, we love you. We want to bring you in, but we're putting everything on pause right now. Microsoft just announced it scrapped a $1 billion data center project in Ohio. Stellantis paused production in Canada and Mexico, leading to 900 layoffs at U.S. plants in Michigan and Indiana.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I got to think there are so many interviews and recruiting plans that have been paused. And typically, pause means they're not happening because they don't double up. If they canceled our recruiting for two, three months, they then don't double their recruiting the following two or three months.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Well, the double whammy of companies trying to figure out if AI replaces a lot of these kind of high-end information workers with total uncertainty, it's like Eisenhower said, the bad decision is wrong. No decision is worse. And I love the term. We have been thrust into this dynamic of the U.S. brand is now toxic uncertainty.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
We would have been much better off if he had said 10% tariffs across the board or whatever it is, and you just stuck to it. The back and forth, the what? You dare threaten me, fine sir? Your tariff is now 125%. Or, oh, I like you. I just had lunch with you at Mar-a-Lago. I mean, nobody knows how to plan their business. So when you don't know what to do, what do you do? You do nothing.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
You don't hire people, you press the pause button. And the pause button is essentially, it's a light no, but it's still a no because the number of people who need jobs, the number of people who have rent doesn't go on pause. Your landlord doesn't say, well, I'm pausing rent. Because I know you had a bunch of interviews lined up and you don't have them now. So I'm pausing. That doesn't happen.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Your expenses continue to roll on. So whether it's people looking to retire, whether it's people just out of college looking for a job, whether it's families, whether... Can you imagine how many corporations probably correctly are going to say, we're freezing all new hires. And quite frankly, we're freezing salaries. There's no bonuses. Right.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Who's going to say, oh, all this uncertainty is bad, but we see an opportunity in all this and we're going to hire faster. I haven't heard any company say that. Think about how many foreign companies were planning to build plants here. And there's a ton of them. They want to build production over here who have all of a sudden said, let's just press pause. We don't know what's going on.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Or I'm on the board of a company that was thinking about relocating or opening a second headquarters in New York. And they're worried that in the second layer of mendaciousness, they're like, we're not sure if we don't know the state of immigration and we don't know if we're going to be able to staff it with some of our folks from here. So we're just doing nothing right now.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
The IPO market is dead. Nobody wants to go public right now. This is across every point of the economy, literally across every income class, from CEOs, they're going to see their pay go down, to the worker making minimum wage, to the college grad, to the family. Everybody gets hit here. Everybody. And as we've always said, few more elegant ways to hurt everybody than tariffs.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I do think it's powerful when you call your local representative and it sounds, you know, I'm going to write me a letter. But I do think your representative in Congress does listen and they track very closely the calls they get. So I do think if you think that these policies don't make sense, I think reaching out to your – I mean, my representative is Lois Frankel. She's a Democrat.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I'm pretty sure she's on board with how I feel. But if you haven't heard or if you wonder if your representative has not been vocal enough or is still trying to – you know, bend the knee and bow to dear leader. At some point, the dam needs to burst and the person riding shotgun, the Republican Party that's in control here, needs to say, hey, you know, you're drunk. Pull over.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Stop driving the car this way. Somebody has got to get a sanity check here. So, and then in terms of your own personal behavior, I think that, I mean, there's a This is important, but it's not profound. And what I try to tell myself, I went to the doctor yesterday and my blood pressure had been so good. It's so weird, Ed. I used to love getting my physical.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And I think I told you for the first time I had high blood pressure and it freaked me out. So I took my drinks down from 12 to 16 a week to 11 to 12. But I'm trying to manage my blood pressure. And then this week I go back in and it's totally fucking spiked. That's mostly because I'm back in New York and Daddy loves to go deep in the paint. But I read something.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I've been reading a lot of Buddhism recently because I find it fascinating. And there's so many interesting things in there. And I read this one line that really struck out of me. And it said, when you're healthy, you have thousands of problems. When you're not healthy, you have one problem. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And what I would say is to anyone out there that feels emotionally straught or like this is really taking a mental hit because they look at their phone 15 times a day or they're losing money or they're worried about their job. Are you healthy? If you're healthy, you got, you know, 49% of everything, 51% of everything.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Do the people in your life who love you and that you love, do they still love you and do you still love them? Then you're riding at about 90%. And again, I go back to the same thing, that life isn't about what happens to you. It's about how you respond to what happens to you. And we're probably going to look back on this over the medium and the long term.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And this is really rough for people trying to retire because they don't have time to make more money. But over the medium and the long term, the markets tend to be up and to the right, especially if you diversify across asset classes and what we've been saying across geographies. You're going to look back and you're probably...
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Probably 95% of us are going to think, I wish I hadn't reacted so emotionally. Very few of us are going to say, I underreacted, right? Because you have the media and you have algorithms all trying to say this is, quote unquote, economic. Somebody described it as economic Armageddon. I'm like, no, it's not. I remember my second week at Morgan Stanley in 1987.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
The Dow went from like 1,400 to 900 in one day. That would be, you know, that would be like we wake up tomorrow and the Dow's at 28,000. I mean— I feel like your generation doesn't really know what war is like, what combat is like when we get a real speed bump.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Well, over a three-day period, right? Sure. But here's the reality. It hasn't even taken us back a year yet. Okay, so we've lost, I think as we sit here today, we've lost seven months of gains. You know, the 2008 Great Financial Recession at the lows took us back, I think it took us back several years.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Of course it is, but it always is. But it's impossible to know. And again, I go back to the same level of advice. What do you do? You do, in my view, you do nothing. And because we said on Monday the markets could go up 2,000 points, and they did. And today they're down 1,000 points. What you can do, though, is if you do decide to sell and diversify, the good news—
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
is that you're not selling at a low here and buying in at a high. All markets are down right now. So to a certain extent, it's a bit of a free trade around diversification right now because the majority of markets have also taken a hit because see above, The definition of being stupid is hurting yourself by hurting others, and we've done both. So the markets have gone down here, but guess what?
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
They've gone down pretty much everywhere else too. So you get to arb into diversification here, kind of almost cost-free, after you've figured out the tax implications. But you get a bit of a freebie here in terms of diversifying.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And that is, investors tend to be a little bit rear view mirror looking, and that is, oh, the markets are down here, so I'm going to go into this other better market, and the better market has already gone up. That's not the case here. Almost everyone has been hit pretty hard. So I'm all about not to keep calm and carry on, but I do think diversification across geographies
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
is something everyone should be thinking about because I believe that over the next 10 years, there's a real non-zero probability that the return in the S&P in the U.S. market is zero.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I think that's a fair point. What I would suggest is the following, is that it is very hard to read the label from inside of the bottle. You want to talk to a tax advisor. Also, this sounds superfluous, you want to talk to your partner. You want to get alignment with your partner. Hey, this is what's going on in the market.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Because what you don't want to do is tell your partner in six months, you made a decision, got unlucky. You want alignment, financial alignment with your partner. I don't know if you've been watching. It's really volatile. I'm thinking diversifying into other companies. You definitely want to talk to a tax advisor.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Because if you sell a stock that has huge gains or whatever, you have a taxable event, it might be an unwelcome thing you didn't see. And if you talk to a tax advisor, you might have said, well, you should have sold stuff where we could harvest the losses or whatever it might be. Or there might be an investment vehicle where you can do tax-free exchange, whatever it might be.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Unfortunately, the tax code has been weaponized by the wealthy who can afford tax advisors. You really want to be thoughtful for tax. You want to speak to people. You want to do a little bit of research. You want to make informed trades. But to your point... Right now, it's not a bad idea in my view. And this is what I'm doing. I am diversifying out of the U.S.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And I'm trying to be thoughtful about stocks or about taxes. I'm trying to be thoughtful around which regions I go into. But China, for every, if a company in China does a billion in revenues and is growing 10%, it trades at, or 5% growth, it trades at 14 billion. The same exact company in the U.S. right now trades at 25 or 26 billion. I think that's going to normalize.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I think it's much more likely that China goes to 20 than the US goes to 35. And I think there's a much greater risk that the U.S. goes below 20 than China goes below 10. And we have had an incredible run. If you live in America and you've participated in any way in the markets by virtue of the job you have, the house you have, the stocks you have, you've done well.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
So the idea of taking a little bit off the table and diversifying right now, it's a free diversification arbitrage because everything's gotten the shit kicked out of it the last week. That is not a bad idea. And if you want to do it over the next week, I get it. I've been doing it over the last three months because I want to be thoughtful and measured about it.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And my sense is the markets are now moving a bit in unison. They will disassociate from one another once things settle down. But to your point, For your own mental health, what you want to do is adopt a military decision-making strategy. And that is when they look at the results of a military operation, they don't look at the outcomes.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
They look at the information the officer had at that moment and did he or she make the best decision possible based on the information at the time. And this is what you want to do. You want to speak to people. You want to go to a robo-advisor. There's so much good information online.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
You want to talk to friends, be open about money, and get alignment with your partners such that you could look back. And even if things don't pan out as well as I think they will if you diversify or you do, You made the right decision at the time. Because what people don't realize is there's returns, there's financial returns, and there's mental health returns.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I really did have this suspicion that the markets were going to puke. And I thought a couple times about going deep and really shorting the market aggressively. And I didn't do it. I would have made a lot of money. But here's the thing. I'm really diversified right now. And that's been the right decision.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
So I haven't gone aggressively at anyone's strategy because I've decided at this age, I'm not looking to get rich. I'm looking to not get poor. And if I talk to enough smart people, which I do, they would say, Scott, you need to just be wildly fucking diversified. Even if you leave some upside on the table, you need to be wildly diversified. You can take some big swings right now.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And I'm not suggesting you do that, but you can take bigger swings than me. And by virtue of the fact... you're young, you're probably gonna have to be overly concentrated in a house at some point or overly concentrated in terms of your wealth and your job, whatever it might be. But you have another 40 years to make money.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
If you're a little bit older and you have some assets, I absolutely think that the D word here should be on your mind all day long, and that is diversification.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
No, no, no, no. We need to talk about me a little bit more. That was a little too much ad. Okay. This morning, Daddy went on La Vista, or as you gringos call it, The View. I went on The View. And I was out with Whoopi, who loves me. She said she loves me. She's like, Professor, I love having you on. I love that show. The women are like, there's some really, like, really attractive women.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
Yeah, a few, which means three, Ed. One, Trump is going to blink. This guy plays the worst poker in the world. He's literally like a guy at a poker table who starts convulsing if he has a good hand. I mean, he just, he is the worst poker player in the world.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And President Xi looks at President Trump the way Logan Roy in succession looked at his kids and said the following, you are not serious people. The fact that we're going to stare down China is just fucking ridiculous at this point, given our lack of credibility, given our lack of willingness to endure pain. Apple is not going to see any tariffs.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I can't imagine the riots if all of a sudden Gen Z has to pay $3,500 for their iPhone. Thousands of you will decide to run for office and say, make America iPhone great again. Anyways, Tim Cook is the CEO or the business person that Donald Trump thinks he is. And he's going to figure out a way to give an exemption to all Apple products.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And I also think, generally speaking, we're going to look at – we're going to be closer to normal in six months. We're going to be back to the future. This tariff situation is going to look almost identical to what it was before we started this mess. The only difference is the U.S. brand will now have a strong association.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
of toxic indecision or toxic uncertainty and we're going to see a pretty serious clip in that multiple contraction which will take everything down this is going to be a round trip where on the way home we realized we have just been through hell and back for fucking nothing for nothing except a loss of reputation and a serious downgrade in the prosperity and wealth of americans
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
You've been on that show a few times now, right? I think this is only my second time. That's still a few. I think that's called a couple. Yeah. Anyways, but nothing moves books like Morning Joe and The View. And it's really interesting. They're both like, there's the behind the scenes, the operations, the producers, the resources. Those guys are really good.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
You can tell that they're making so much money because they are serious when you show up. But yeah, I think my future ex-wife is one of those panelists or one of the women of The View. I'll let all the viewers... Viewers guess who it is, but my future ex-wife is one of the co-hosts of The View. Oh, my God. I am just fascinated with this woman.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I see her lips moving, but I don't hear the words because I love you. I love you. I saw her backstage and I'm like, let's take a picture together so I can show this to our children.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And she's conservative, which really gets me kind of... Absolutely. But they're all really smart and impressive. And anyway, so I was on The View, Ed.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
So the only way I can play, I can think of to play this market, and by the way, this is what I'm doing. Don't try this at home. Be very careful because it has unlimited downside. But options and volatility have gone crazy. And so to buy options is super expensive.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
So I have been selling options, specifically selling calls, because I think over the medium and the long term, we're going to have contraction, multiple contractions. So I sell calls against stocks that I think are already overvalued. And be clear, I imagine the thing tripling, the stock tripling, because there's unlimited downside and it can't be more than 5% of my net worth.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
So you keep in mind when you do this, you are playing with fire. But that's the only way I can think of to kind of play this volatility in this recklessness is to sell calls, quite frankly. So I was looking at Apple calls. And Wednesday in the morning, you could buy, I think the stock was at 175. You could buy a call on Apple for 40 cents, meaning if you sell it, you only get 40 cents.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And then about 10 minutes before he made the announcement, he was pausing it. Apple skyrocketed and the calls went to $4. So you invested a million bucks, you got 10 million. And I didn't do this, but if you took a million dollars selling those calls, you had to pay that person 10 million. So people made and lost about a third of a billion dollars just on that one strike price, just on that one.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
So literally billions of dollars made and lost. But it was clear someone knew what was going to happen. And when you have a president who's comfortable opening a Swiss bank account where anyone can deposit money, call him and say, I've done this, and he doesn't ask to disclose it.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
When you have a president that is a convicted felon, to think that maybe he didn't call some of his donors or some of his insiders or friends and say, FYI, wink, wink, nod, nod, I think the markets are going to go up today. I think we're going to find out, and in a digital world, there will be evidence of this.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
I think we're going to find out that April 9th, we'll go down in history, is the greatest day of insider trading in history, where people were engaging in market manipulation and insider trading, trading on non-public material information, because clearly word got out that In this market, there's someone on the other side of that trade losing money.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And the whole point of the markets is there isn't a group of people in the know within a circle of proximity to people in power. They get asymmetric advantage against you because then people just give up and stop investing in the markets and the cost of capital increases. skyrockets for corporations. So yesterday was D-Day for insider trading.
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
And I think that will come out about a week after the next president is inaugurated. I think the SEC and forensic accountants are going to find there was so much bad shit that went down yesterday. Any thoughts, Ed?
Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
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Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
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Prof G Markets
What to Do in the Wake of Trump’s Tariff Pause
What if you could? Today's number, $313 million. That's how much a Minecraft movie made in its opening weekend, the biggest video game film opening ever. Ed, a rabbi, a priest, and a stripper walk into a bar. What does the bartender say? What? I don't know, but Donald Trump is a fucking idiot.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
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Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I remember reading that 33 people at the very beginning of the Trump coin that was launched the Friday before inauguration under the cover of dark because there was so much news and so much noise, 33 of them made several hundred million dollars. And by the way, three quarters of those wallets are international wallets.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
And then I think something like 800,000 people, as you and me have pointed out, have gone on to lose billions. Two billion. A kleptocracy is a small number of people with proximity to power, oligarchs, who get inside information and advantage. This is making Putin blush. There has never been a president or a prime minister who's been able to aggregate a billion dollars a month.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
in these types of gains. And then people say, well, he hasn't sold any coins yet. They've made $300 million just in fees because they take fees in terms of trading.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I just want to make a solution because I'm sick of crying into TikTok or threads or whatever. I believe that the Democrats need to draft legislation, propose it, it will not pass, that says anyone participating in this grift, these people at World Trade, Liberty Financial or whoever it is, You know, be clear.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
He might pardon himself and his kids, but if you don't get a presidential pardon and you took place in anything ranging from ICE raids that illegally incarcerated U.S. citizens to engaging in a grift, the statute of limitations is more than three years and nine months. We're coming for your ass. As opposed to all of us just saying, wow, it's the biggest grift in history.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I know we're going to be right. I'm fairly confident we're going to be right. And then they sail off into the sunset. OK, the president's probably going to get off here. He'll pardon himself. He doesn't care. Fine. But I would start sending a chill down the spine of all the people who are enabling this, including his advisers, including members of Congress.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
that if you are engaged in this grift, and this is a grift, let me back up. The definition of insider trading, or really what insider trading is, is it's asymmetry of information. And the reason why we have those laws is that if just a small group of insiders are making money at the expense of everyone else, then everyone else stops investing in the markets. They stop buying stock.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
They stop investing in bonds. And corporate America no longer has access to cheap capital. And The people who own those shares don't get as wealthy because people stop trusting the markets.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
What we see everywhere here is asymmetry of information where people close to the president have an unfair trading advantage, and it comes at the cost of people that don't have inside information, that don't have proximity to the president. And what this means... is that people are less inclined to invest in U.S. markets. We've already seen this.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
The rivers of capital into the U.S., both human and financial, have a reverse flow. As you've pointed out, EU index funds have had their greatest inflows in the last 30 years. Why? Because they're flowing out of the U.S. German, the bunds, the German bonds are decreasing in cost. Germans can now borrow money at a lower interest rate because people don't think their government is fucking corrupt.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
And ours are teetering or consistently feel like pressure that they're going up, which means our student loans, our mortgages, our auto loans are going to get more expensive. But a small number of people are going to get really fucking rich. Senator Warren summarized it perfectly. And this is how you push back on this type of kleptocracy.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
She said, they're getting richer and you're losing your health care. Us talking about 75% of these wallets being in international domains, people don't get it and they don't care. But when you start saying, okay, folks, you're about to lose your healthcare, But these people are getting really, really fucking rich or the stock market is going down.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
And the only people making money are the ones that get to pay a million and a half bucks and come and say, oh, by the way, we're about to announce tomorrow a new dinner for the coin or something like that. People start to connect the dots.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
And I hope that's going to start to happen because I do think it's coming out and people are starting to wrap their head around the fact that this is the biggest grift in history. It hurts them. They will end up paying more for their mortgage. Their stocks will go down.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
Yeah, nothing I do is original. Greatness is in the agency of others. I agree with that. I'm like a less wealthy form of China. I steal a lot of IP, and I repackage it as my own, and then I export it back to other people via this podcast.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
The Department of Justice was freaked out enough to assemble a group of people and they were going to work in conjunction with the SEC that pursued criminal fraud specific to the crypto industry. They had a division. And on April the 8th, the Trump administration disbanded that division. They said, we'd just rather not have people poking around in
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
looking for evidence of fraud in the crypto market, given that we have just launched two coins.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
And the latest grift, I mean, speaking of what's for sale, there's now the World Liberty Financial token that Eric and Don are taking over or involved in. Justin Hsu, who is being pursued for criminal fraud by either the DOJ or the SEC, invested $75 million in World Liberty financial token. And guess what happened? He was pardoned.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
Yeah, my favorite was, do you have a responsibility to uphold the Constitution? I don't know. I need to check with my lawyers. Yeah. I'm not sure.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
You're shocked. You're shocked. I love that. I love your moral clarity on this. I like that you're this young person who hates crypto.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
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Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
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Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
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Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
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Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
It's gorgeous. Yeah. No, it's nice. I went to Chez Margot last night to see Black Coffee. And of course, I went home before he came on. I'm like, did you? How was that? Well, I was furious. I've turned into that guy. I'm like, when's he coming on? I pay all this money for a table. And they're like, he comes out at midnight. I'm like, what? I like made reservations at like 6 p.m. for dinner.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
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Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
Check it out for yourself at mercury.com. Mercury, banking that does more. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
It's great to be a monopoly, and when something threatens your monopoly power, it takes the stock down. And also, I think people felt that this might expedite the transfer of market share from Alphabet to ChatGPT. There's been talk even about potentially OpenAI bidding for Chrome if they're forced to spin it. It feels like momentum has its own momentum and things are not great for Alphabet.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
Oh, yeah? I should have taken you, but I don't want to spend any time with you. But, um... But the thought is there. The thought is there.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
One, that's an incredible high margin payment, $20 billion a year. Google, it does feel like open AI is an existential threat. I would argue that Google or Alphabet is the cheapest. If I were going to put money into one of those companies right now, I'd be tempted to go for growth and meta, but I can't morally reconcile investing in meta.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
What I just don't get is if the S&P trades at 24, I think it's just hard to understand how Alphabet is not in the top median of companies in terms of growth, and it's trading at 17. So to me, Alphabet feels like the least expensive of them. You had, I think, a great stat, and that is as of today, Google is registering 353 times as many searches as OpenAI today. Let me put it this way.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
The carcass is bleeding, but this is going to be a big carcass for a long, long time.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
God, this is a douchey conversation. Anyways, I'm going to see Calvin Harris. And I've seen Kygo and all these, like, kind of, I know every one of the DJ community is, like, so disgusted with me because I like the equivalent of Britney Spears of DJs. I like the big popular ones.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
Yeah, I love that. Some of the parts analysis, I used to do that when I was an activist investor and go in and get board seats and tell them to break up and they'd say, fuck off, and then I'd leave. Yeah. Not Gateway, though. Yeah, they sold. They sold. What a baller. Gateway.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
The thing we're not talking about that I'm increasingly thinking is about to happen that I think we're on the verge of the autonomous wars. And autonomous is going to create a massive amount of excitement. It was supposed to happen, supposed to happen, supposed to happen, didn't, didn't, didn't. People have just sort of like constantly rolling their eyes. It feels like it's happening.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
And it's going to reshape transportation and the unit economics of last mile. And there'll be a ton of excitement. And hands down, the leader is Waymo.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I used to listen to Rufus DeSole every night, and then I realized I was getting more and more depressed, and I wondered if it was Rufus DeSole, and I stopped listening to it. It's like too emotional for you? It's just too like... It's pretty intense, yeah. It's very like, oh, we're in a dystopia. Maybe you should kill yourself. It's a dystopia. I know.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
You're singing for my Himbo brother. I think that if you look at the history of breakups, you know, PayPal used to be the payment system within eBay. It's now worth more. It's now worth twice as much as eBay. Every one of the seven baby bells in the AT&T breakup was worth more than the original AT&T within 10 years. So breakups almost always work for shareholders.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
And where you find alpha and dislocation here is if the wolves really circle for meta or for alphabet and the stock goes down, I think that's an enormous buying opportunity. Because it's not like the asset is taken away from those shareholders. The shareholders own a proportionate amount in that new co. And so all of a sudden, and then you get diversification. I used to own a share of Alphabet.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
Now I own, you know, one share of Alphabet and three shares of Google and three shares of YouTube and two shares in Waymo. You know, however they decided they wanted to break it up. And the reality is a spin of assets that creates more pure plays is accretive to shareholders. Because here's the thing. I don't need Alphabet to diversify for me.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I would like the opportunity to just buy a pure play YouTube. I would like that. I'm not sure I want Waymo. Maybe I do. Maybe I don't. Maybe I don't want to invest in Google. Or maybe I do want to invest in a cheap Google because people think it's declining. Whatever it is, we don't need conglomerates to diversify for us. We can diversify on our own. So I think that is...
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I think that is a huge opportunity. And just thinking about this, I keep saying I'm going to sell everything and invest in European stocks. I might do a little dribble into Alphabet, into the alpha to the bet and see what happens here.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
it's pretty it's pretty rough but i actually saw rufus de soul at the miami electro festival and all i could think about when i was there i thought i am getting too old for music festivals because all i could think about is where's the nearest fire safety route you know that's what running through my head i couldn't enjoy it anyways enough of that shit get to the headlines dad let's start with our weekly review of market vitals
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I mean, there's so many amazing CEOs running amazing companies, but I think Dara is one of them. And he took an incredible concept that Travis started and he kind of evolved the firm to sort of adult management, made some great acquisitions. And Uber's just sort of running away with it. They have scale. It's well managed. He got into food delivery.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
He's embraced rather than saying, oh, autonomous is not coming. He's embracing it. And I think he's done deals with the biggest players. And they have almost near monopoly status. I'm trying to think in terms of actual impact on my life and consumer usage, there's very few brands that It didn't like that I didn't use 20 years ago that I have are more integrated and important in my life.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I could stay at home and take edibles and just order Ubers and just watch where the car is. I'm like, oh, it's a QX60. Why is he going left on broom? I find it like enjoyable to see where my car is.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
When I think about – I grew up in a time where you actually got a driver's license. I went to the DMV with my friend Adam Markman on my 16th birthday. He came with me because it was so important. And I love cars. I've spent a ridiculous amount of money on cars. I don't have a car because of Uber. And I would bet I spend – $5,000 a month on – $3,000 a month on Ubers? I will take Ubers everywhere.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
If I'm – I mean, I just love – I love that service. I think they do an amazing job. And I didn't like the company initially because I thought they were using cheap capital and software to circumvent employment labor laws and – Getting figured out a way to get people to monetize their car as a payday loan because they were so desperate. Which was true.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
But they're charging more, which I think is the right thing to do. I think it's a great service. They're paying their drivers more. I think Uber Eats is fantastic. I think Dara's done a great job. So they barely missed expectations. I would call this a meet. I think they met expectations. I think it's really hard to say they missed expectations.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I'll do four Ubers today. And... To your point about it being stitched into societal norms and into the zeitgeist of our culture, because I write a lot about young men and mating, I get served all of these TikToks with people talking about dating. And have you seen this? One of the new litmus tests for whether a guy is worth dating is – or a new –
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
minimum table stakes for a date is did he send an uber to bring her to the location yeah to bring the date to the dinner yeah oh fuck off no way uh-oh glad you're in a relationship yeah that that's sort of an expectation now and i thought i can't imagine when i was a kid like sending a limo for my date i'm like this generation has become pretty entitled
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
Look, I think this company is vulnerable to a recession, but I bet it would be more, all right, I'm not going to take Uber Lux. I'm going to take Uber X or whatever. I think consumers have just gotten way too used to the convenience of having a private driver show up and drive you somewhere.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
Yeah, I just think the cost... When you say build the vehicles, you mean build the autonomous driving technology? Yeah. Yeah, I just think it's such an arms race and there's so much capital involved that I think you're underestimating the power of the custody of the consumer and how lazy consumers are when they get comfortable with an interface. I have uploaded all my credit cards to Uber.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I understand it. And it's just super easy for me to hit it and go. And so, I mean, essentially... Uber has become the iOS for transportation. And I'm so comfortable with it. It's so deeply integrated in my life. I understand it. My credit cards are there that I think that these guys are going to figure out a way to work together.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
And, you know, it's sort of like the default operating system, you know, Android and iOS have so much power because consumers are comfortable with that UI.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
The idea of me pulling up Waymo, that app, downloading it, uploading my credit cards, as opposed to just Uber, which has the selection, the option of autonomous or the option of an SUV or the option if I don't want, if I want a driver. I just think they're going to be in a position to drive so much customer value that they'll be able to negotiate contracts and say, look, you can't fuck us.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I think they're going about it the right way, the same way that Apple said, We're not going to spend a ton of money on developing our own browser instead or our own search. We're going to just cash a check for $20 billion from someone else and focus on other things. I think Uber actually has made the right choice.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I mean, because remember initially they were really big on autonomous and spending a lot of money on it.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I think they're actually, I think it's a smart idea for them. I think they're going to still be a winner here. I think there'll be room for more. I think Waymo will be a big winner here. And I think Uber will also be a big winner.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
So my prediction, Ed, is that Alibaba is going to beat. I think that one of the knock-on effects here is that Alibaba and Chinese companies have had this overhang of being Chinese. And I saw this data that just blew my mind. And I presented it in Hamburg, Germany yesterday.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
And that is that for the first time in history, when you survey people from around the globe, more of them believe that China is a force for good in the world than the U.S. Wow. And it just absolutely blew my mind. That's crazy. How does that drill down to Alibaba?
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I think that European companies and international companies have been felt much more confident using American cloud providers to store their data. And I think a lot of them are now reconsidering potentially using Chinese companies, specifically Alibaba, for their cloud needs.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
And I think Alibaba is going to report earnings that show especially strong growth in their cloud unit, which will give their stock a pop.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I mean, okay, so I'm a little bit triggered by delivery because it's put a real strain on my marriage. At first, it was some drunken one-night stand during a business trip. Then it was her boss and the pool guy. And lately, she's been fucking, you know— Let me start over.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
No. So, look, I relate to delivery. This is the last straw. I'm now divorcing my wife. At first, it was one-night stands, then her boss, then our pool guy, then the Deliveroo delivery guy. And then it was her very own stepbrother, Ed, and even my own best friend. I don't know, Ed. I just can't stop sucking cocks.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I'm descending into something. It's not the comedy world. I'm definitely descending into something, but no, it's not the comedy world. I love that joke. I've used that joke a lot. That's a big, that's a crowd pleaser. That's a crowd pleaser. Is it? You know, I'm not sure. We'll find out in the comments.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
Yeah, I was confused by this. At first I thought, OK, their big win is they're going to get them to drop the tariffs. The UK is going to have to drop the tariffs on digital services. And so, again, the biggest corporations with lobbyists and you give a million dollars to Trump, get their tariffs dropped, but small businesses don't.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
As far as I can tell, and we've had this thesis for a long time, that the net net of all of this shit is almost zero. OK, so they're going to drop tariffs on this, but increase here. I think this guy is looking for any reason to claim victory.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
And we're going to end up in the same or maybe even worse because the people negotiating these deals, based on what I understand or what I've seen of the administration, is that they're fucking idiots. Right. We don't have our best and brightest doing this shit. You know, the analogy I use, I don't know if you saw me. I was on Anderson Cooper last night on CNN.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
And I was so bummed out because the only like one talking point I wanted to get out, I wasn't able to get out. And it's the following. I don't mind a certain amount of corruption in our government. I think sometimes civil disobedience and corruption can actually be leadership. What do I mean by that? FDR sent munitions and armaments to Europe without congressional approval.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
He violated the Constitution. I thought it was real leadership at the end of the day. I thought he saw it as such an existential threat. He thought, you know, fuck it. I'm going to do this behind the backs of Congress. You know, as long as you're right. The thing I find most disappointing about what is this ridiculous terror thing and the corruption here is that we essentially have a mob boss.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
We have a mob family running the government right now. OK, that's bad. What's worse is that Michael Corleone is running the grift and Fredo is running the government. And that is, I wish they brought the same expertise and elegance and timing to government and tariffs as they're bringing to their grift.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
And so every time we talk about their grift, I'm sort of impressed with how elegant and strategic it is. And then I look at this shit and I'm like, what is this? Peter Navarro and his... you know, drunk advising them on, OK, we're lowering the tariffs on autos now or so we can increase it over here. And somehow that's going to bring back our manufacturing jobs. So what is this?
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
A whole lot of fucking nothing. That's what this is. Your thoughts.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
Trump is all about appearances, full stop. And I think the best thing that could happen for our military is if Pete Hexeth started going bald and gained 30 pounds. Because I think the only reason he's still in the job is because he's handsome. Seriously, I think I know. I agree. By the way, Scaramucci told me the same thing.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
I think Trump likes the idea of this like big, handsome guy running the Defense Department. And the guy that took the fall was not as attractive as Hegseth. So this guy is all about appearances. It's not about competence. How do I get a press release? How do I look good? Right. Is it time for my spray tan? I mean, it just, again, anyway, fuck, let's go on to the next story.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
The biggest fear, right, is that we continue to see inflation. And the economy slows. That's called stagflation. It hasn't happened since the 70s. That is the scariest thing for a Fed chair. And if that happens, they will raise interest dramatically, as they had to do in the 70s, and they will throw jobs to the wolves, to the fire, and they will create huge unemployment to tame inflation.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
Because unemployment... creates a change in governments, inflation can start wars. Inflation can literally create chaos.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
If it spins out of control and people think, well, I need to buy lunch right now or buy bread right now because it's going to be 10% more expensive next week, you lose control of it because no one wants to hold on to money and you just have too much money chasing goods and it can crash an economy. So when he sees, okay, maybe the economy's slowing down. It doesn't appear to be.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
So we're not going to cut interest rates. And inflation, based on what this guy's going to do or not do, I can't predict his blood sugar level. But in case there is inflation, no, we're not bringing interest rates down.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
We are in the midst of the greatest grift in history in terms of size and the amount of money that's being grifted. This is a family that has increased their net worth a billion dollars a month since they became president. And the pattern across all of these coins, whether it's the Trump coin or the Melania coin or the new World Financial Liberty coin token, I think, It's simple.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
Today's number, $200 billion. That's how much Bill Gates plans to give away to philanthropies over the next 20 years. True story, Ed. All of Bill Gates' nannies supposedly quit and went to work for Steve Jobs. And he was reported to say, fucking jobs coming for our immigrants. Get it? Little turn of phrase there. Little twist of phrase. Little semantic humor there.
Prof G Markets
Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?
A small group of insiders get word of him either announcing a dinner or announcing the coin. They pile in with big trades, and then they dump. And then a bunch of retail investors who think, who are maybe fans of the... Trump administration come in and they get smoked. There was someone who made a shit ton of money, as you highlighted on the Melania Con, and since then it's lost 96% of its value.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
As it relates to private equity and bankruptcy, that's not surprising because private equity is usually, let's take all of its cash flows and use it to lever up such that we can have more upside and finance the acquisition with cheap debt. And when it doesn't work, they declare bankruptcy.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Now, having said that, the debtors or the bondholders charge a certain interest rate that calculated in the risk of default. And when the bondholders – when it defaults, the bondholders get to seize the assets. And when a private equity company or a private equity-backed company has – you know, when it goes bankrupt –
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I don't know. I haven't counted. I can't go here. There's no way I don't come across as the world's biggest douchebag talking about the number of seats.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Generally speaking, the private equity, all the equity capital they put in, they also get wiped out. So it does lever up and go risk on on a company, but it also creates a certain sense of urgency. I think private equity has been good and that good for society. I'm not one of these people that says, oh, they're ruining everything. I don't think that's true.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
There's a lot of entrepreneurs who've made a lot of money selling to private equity. And the thing I like about private equity is is they're usually very good at getting management vested in terms of the upside of success.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
They're actually quite generous, whereas venture capitalists, I find, are primarily just, with rare exception, just mendacious fuck douchebags who pretend to give a shit about anybody and then wash the founders out. Speaking for a friend. But so I like I enjoy working with private equity. I think debt tightens the focus, if you will. And most of the time these things, you know, it does make sense.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And also there's there's two parties to the trade. The company doesn't have to sell the private equity. They don't. They've they've entered into this agreement knowingly. The people who are financing this debt enter into this trade knowingly and are getting a good, hopefully a good interest rate to reflect the risk. But this is a company that's a shadow of itself.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
It sounds to me what I would want to know is what percentage of their leases are coming up for renewal that we can get out of, because that's the obligation here that is most scary.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And that's why a lot of retailers, good retailers, declare bankruptcy, because then they can go and cherry pick and hold on to the leases they want and get out of the contractual agreements with the leases that are hurting them. So I wouldn't be surprised. I bet this, I wouldn't be surprised if Sycamore actually does pretty well here. Do you want to hear my CVS and opiate story, Ed? Please.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
My CFO came in at L2, came into me and said, I need to speak to him. So I'm just like, there's some really crazy charges at drugstores all over Manhattan. And I looked at him, I'm like, yeah, this is not me. This doesn't make any sense. I'm like, it must be fraud. He's like, no, it's not fraud. It's your assistant.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And it ends up that my assistant was addicted to opiates and was going to every doctor in Manhattan getting a script for opiates and then going into a CVS or a Walgreens and not only getting her opiates but buying $1,000 or $2,000 in cosmetics or gifts. And she was not only a criminal, she was a stupid criminal. And she would sign for everything and have it delivered to her house. Right.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Get this. She managed to spend, I think, over five months or seven months, $120,000 on my corporate card at various CVS and Walgreens all over Manhattan.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
They lost her. And I remember calling her. I'm like, look, we have an issue here. You are clearly addicted to something. There's $120,000 on charges on my card. And not only that, I'm like, she's like, oh, I don't know what you're talking about. I'm like... And you've signed for this shit at your address. Your signature's on this stuff.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
You decided to have someone drop it off at your apartment, which wasn't like, you know, you're not exactly what I'd call a very, you know, this is disorganized crime. And she immediately went into rehab, claimed disability, and tried to sue us for the options that we owed her. She dropped the case when I said I was going to turn it over to the Manhattan DA if she didn't drop the case.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
But anyways, that was my last assistant, Ed. That was my last assistant.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I think Musk, when he saw this, I think this probably sent a chill down his spine. If people start canceling Starlink contracts, I mean, they're already throwing shit at Teslas on the road. I just canceled a Tesla last night on Uber. I'm starting to cancel if it's a Tesla when it comes up. I think that Canada, I think this guy's making the right move, and I think you're only gonna see more of it.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I think people have just had it. What's a shame is that we don't have the same type of leadership here in the United States. There hasn't been a single CEO who has stood up and said, I am not going to participate in this pay for play kleptocracy. I'm not giving to the campaign. I am not going to be paraded around. You either have laws that affect all of us or none of us, but I have had it.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And we haven't had anyone that shows the balls of this leader up in Ontario. And it is so disappointing the domino theory of cowardice that has infected the rich and Fortune 500 CEOs. I can't think of one who has spoken out all under the auspices of quote-unquote shareholder value. Well, folks, your stakeholders include Americans.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
It is incredibly disappointing that we aren't showing a fraction of leadership that this guy is showing.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I think this is what is going to probably push Musk out of government or he's going to decide he's going to try and declare victory and leave. Because if you look at Starlink customer base, I mean, Tesla is already crashing. It's literally imploding.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I don't know if you saw this video of Mardi Gras and someone, a Tesla truck or whatever you call it, was rolling down and everyone started throwing shit at it. Starlink was his growth vehicle. And there's one and a half million customers of Starlink in the US. You referenced that there's 530,000 in Canada, its second largest market. That's real.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And then the number three market, Mexico, at 435,000. And then the number four is Brazil, who probably doesn't feel that great about Musk, who was threatening, was fucking with their internal politics. So You know, Starlink's value in the private markets, it's the most valuable company – one of the most valuable private companies and the most traded in the secondary market.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And I think it's a third of a trillion dollars. I think it's trading at $3 or $350 billion. That number is going to come way down because if they can't show the kind of growth that they've been showing – Also, you are seeing a lot of... You want to talk about Greenland's going. If I'm Telesat or Explore, the competitors, they have no trouble raising a shit ton of money right now.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
One example, one example of reaching too far into the barrel, Aspiration, a finance firm that claims its products can, open quote, change climate change, end quote. In August, the company announced it was going public via SPAC at a $2.3 billion valuation. Change climate change. That would be awesome. Except there's a catch. This is a fucking debit card. He's so good.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And because there is about to be a big gap in the marketplace for this type of broadband provider.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Yeah, that's right.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
kind of failed. You're the one I invested in, but is that what you're saying, Ed? Is that what you're saying, the one I invested in? The one I managed to pick?
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube by the way I absolutely love Vivintu I think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
On the face of it, it sounds like a great idea. I mean, if you think about... The most valuable companies in the world are essentially toll booths, right? Amazon makes a ton of their money sort of saying, all right, rent our cloud services. But the real toll is that if you want to have access to half of the U.S. e-commerce market, you got to be on our platform. And then we just collect a toll.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
It used to be 24% of third-party revenues when you put your shoe company on their platform. Now it's about they get 45% because you have one toll road, they're the toll booth. If you want to reach online consumers, there's two big toll booths. There's Meta and there's Google. They collect a toll to reach every consumer that's increasingly spending their day online.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
So I love this idea of an analog toll that says, okay, We get you coming and going across this incredible feat of engineering and leadership, the Panama Canal.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
But you got to think to get to propel through the water a several thousand metric ton vessel and have it go another whatever it is, 6,000 miles or 8,000 miles around this thing versus just slip through that little ditch we dug through Panama.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
If they can figure out a way to collect money on the in and the out, I've never heard a transportation company say, the Panama Canal has gotten too expensive, so we're just going to take the long way.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
It was such an attempt to drape yourself in social justice while offering something pretty borderline fraudulent. They were saying that we take a portion of your credit card fees and invest in sustainable companies.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I would have just thought that they believe that their average price per vessel of $341,000 that's charged to get through the Panama Canal, that they believe they can take that $341,000 number much higher.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And if you read their website, and we got some financial information, we dug in, this was a shitty little credit card company charging onerous fees, claiming to do something they weren't doing and saying, oh, but we're a new economy company. And they had famous investors, they had actors.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I didn't immediately connect that this gets them in Trump's good graces, but I can see the argument. If so, I can't imagine they would make this sort of capital outlay. I think that would be being a bad fiduciary just to cozy up to a guy who's going to be in office another three years and nine months, and quite frankly, in about two years.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
A friend of mine, it ends up, was an investor and called me and sort of, I don't want to say put pressure on me, that said, do you want to speak to management? I think you got this wrong. I said to him, I said, we'll just call him Bob. I'm like, Bob, this is a fucking fraud. This is WeWork with a climate change veneer smeared over it.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I thought that was going to get more attention than the WeWork post because I thought it was even more obvious a fraud.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
,,,,,, ,,,,,,, The reality is tech. You're an investor in tech. You're an investor in U.S. tech. People who are tracking South African value stocks aren't listening to this podcast. People who track American markets, which are dominated by tech, are listening to this podcast, meaning that you at Elson, if you were really, really smart about diversification, you would not be investing in U.S.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
tech because you are very tied. This is what I didn't understand when I was your age. I was so overinvested in US tech. Running a brand strategy firm in Northern California, my entire livelihood was tied to the fortunes of tech. All my clients were either Kleiner Perkins portfolio companies or HP or Apple or, you know, I had these big kind of US tech companies.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And then because that's what I knew and I thought, oh, this is, This is where the future is. I'd take all my excess cash flow and I'd buy tech stocks. So when 2000 came, I ended up going from being worth a lot of money for a 30-year-old, 36, to being worth negative $2 or $3 million in the space of about three months. So we are overinvested in U.S.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
tech by virtue of the fact of what we do for a living. So I'm going to take many of my—basically everything that's not nailed to the ground right now—
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Mercedes is a great company, trading at a fairly low multiple. Porsche is on sale relative to where it was. L'Oreal is an amazing company. Shell, BP. There's a lot of... LVMH has come off a lot. That's not value, but it's come off a lot. There are a lot of great European companies. I'm very excited about Europe. A lot of this is confirmation bias. But I think Europe has been...
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
God, like community-based EBITDA, WeWork.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
We've had this conversation. Europe has been left for dead. It's not. I spent a lot of time in Europe, incredible universities, a lot of very hardworking people. It doesn't have the risk capital it should, but I think that's going to change. I think PE is getting their green glands going. And I think they're finally going to start acting like a union and take advantage of their size.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
So I'm very excited about Europe. And I'm very, you know, the bottom line is American tech is still going to do really well. It's just too fucking expensive.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I want you to make a prediction, Ed, and I think you just made one.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
So I'm excited to see you in Texas. The last time I was in Texas, I was in Lubbock and I came across a sheep farm and there was a farmer fucking a sheep on the side of the road. And I said, in New York, we shear sheep. And he said, I'm not shearing her with anyone. I'll see you in Austin. I'll see you in the great state of Texas.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I loved Adam Newman's initial redefinition of EBITDA. And it was like, earnings before everything else, earnings before Dolly Parton, earnings before March Madness. It was like, let's pretend that profits are top line revenues before expenses. Let's just get rid of this pesky thing called expenses so we can say, pretend that we're profitable.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Today's number, $145 million. The co-founder of fintech startup Aspiration was arrested last week for allegedly conspiring to defraud his investors of $145 million. By the way, we call bullshit on this company. Four years ago. Speaking of climate change, Ed, what do climate change deniers and pedophiles have in common? What's that? They're both fucking the next generation. Ah, that's good.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
But yeah, I appreciate the recognition and drinks on me this week in Austin.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
It just makes sense. This is part of capitalism, and that is they need to consolidate, bulk up, and then cut costs. These companies should have one back end as far as news, and if they have different front-facing... brands that appeal to different audiences, that's fine. But last year, Disney's linear networks revenue declined 9% and operating income was down 16%. They're not alone here. U.S.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
linear TV advertising will decrease an estimated 4% annually through 2030, which doesn't seem like a lot. But when it's going for another Five years, 4%, it means it's going to lose a quarter of its revenue or a fifth. And that means, you know, that's just real pain because some of those costs are fixed.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
So you're talking probably, they're probably going to shed another 20 or 30% of their workforce over the next five years. I just had lunch with a fairly famous news anchor who is fantastic at what she does. And she's one of the lucky ones. She's still making a lot of money, but I think her salary got cut by 30%. And you're seeing cuts across the most famous anchors of like 20% to 80%.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Joy Reid, Chuck Todd, Jim Acosta, and Lester Holt, all fantastic at what they do or did, all too expensive. And George Stephanopoulos, his contract's been renewed, though he had to take a pay cut from his previous $20 million deal. He's lucky he got his deal a few months ago. I think it'd even be less now. Rachel Maddow renegotiated. She is the friends or the anchor of MSNBC.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
She had to reduce her pay from $30 to $25 million. Yeah, cry me a river. That's not too much. Anyway, so look, the market is doing what it's supposed to do. It's reshaping. the winners and the losers. You're going to see, I think, private equity come in here. You're going to see a lot of consolidation.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I think Disney is a survivor because of this unique singular positioning around family and just the incredible IP they have. I also wonder if this is an interesting take private opportunity. But anyways, what are your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Well, if you look at means of production, and I did some analysis here, we're making three to four times the revenue per employee. And granted, we're small, but the means of production are so much less expensive in podcasting.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Now, granted, there aren't that many winners, but if you can figure out kind of a new media platform and keep it kind of lean and mean, you can just see what's happening here. It's just incredibly... challenging for these folks. I describe, I was jokingly describing the anchors as pilots for Pan Am in the 70s and that it's high prestige, they're banging stewardesses, everyone's impressed by them.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
But I'm like, your days are numbered. Pretty sure you're going to be, you know, on an Embraer from Lubbock, Texas to Amarillo making 38,000 bucks a year. That's a great analogy. I personally, the way I register it, Is 10 years ago when I was asked to come on CNN, I just was so excited. I remember the first time Anderson had me on his show and I was so I thought, wow, I've made it.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And now, unless it's someone I'm personal friends with or I don't go on because it's like the juice isn't worth the squeeze to come across as intelligent and the work and the prep you need to do. Not that many people are watching it.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Great joke. Yeah, the pedophile stuff never gets old. What's going on with you? What are you up to?
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Plus, I mean, you're literally, you're going to be exposed to dozens and dozens of new fans. Yeah. 5 a.m. on CNN. That is literally like a 90-year-old that can't sleep.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I think that's great. Congratulations. I didn't know about that.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
But yeah, broadcast television. What's interesting, though, is it still, you'll see this, there's still a prestige value. And that is when people see you on, I used to go on Fox every week. And when people see you on TV, for some reason, there's just this veneer of prestige, romanticism, or credibility that you don't get anywhere unless, of course, you have a guest role on The White Lotus.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Let's bring this back to me. Let's bring this back to me. Anyways, Linear TV, it's not doing well.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Captain fucking obvious.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I think they're just overstored. I think they're doing the right thing. Again, capitalism in the markets at work. I can't believe this thing was ever worth $100 billion. What I'd be curious, and I don't know if you have any information on this, is that my go-to as well, this is Amazon, another victim of Amazon. But I don't really know. Do you have any thoughts on what's actually going on here?
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I mean, clearly, they're going to cut costs. They're probably going to change management and severely reduce costs. And the issue, the hard part about retail is that you have to enter into these very risky business contracts called a lease. And everybody wants the same real estate. And the owners of this real estate are smart at maximizing their revenue by signing up for a 10-year lease.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
So when you pick... I mean, you have to be very thoughtful. So, and kind of the history of retail is restoration hardware goes public and they think we got to grow. So they sign a bunch of bad leases. They're really promiscuous. And then similar to Walgreens, three and four Walgreens are not profitable. And it's a 10-year weeping sore.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Unless you declare bankruptcy, you can't get out of that lease. So you're just losing money. So real estate, what are they going to do? They're going to let a ton of these leases expire. and hopefully shore it up.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Buying a house has long been considered the best way to build wealth and move into true adulting.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Waymo's been here for a while. And the notion that we're all waiting for Tesla autonomous, I took a Waymo taxi six months ago in LA. By the way, extraordinary. My first ride in this thing. And we get to this intersection where there's been an accident. I'm like, oh, great. I'm going to be the first like autonomous guy taken out. I'm like, this is so fitting for what I do.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Prof G takes his first autonomous Uber and gets, you know, T-boned by a bus because the fucking Waymo couldn't process a billion points. There's a cop with cones and waving with illuminated batons saying, okay, you need to go around the crash car into the wrong side of the road and to get around this accident. And I thought, there's no way this thing's going to be able to process this.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And it was very hesitant. It drove like what I would imagine a scared 16-year-old girl would approach the situation. That's sexist.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
No, my boy's decided you can make a left on a red light if you just stop first. That's what he's decided. It's like, wait, you just need to stop. And then you go, no, no, no, no. Anyway, so this thing went out very hesitant, and it figured it out. So the notion that we're waiting, it's just so ridiculous. Tesla, in my view, has already lost. Waymo's doing a great job. Uber has massive...
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I mean, the number of Teslas is dwarfed by the number of Uber rides out there every day. And you got to give, I think Dara Khosrowshahi has done a fantastic job because in their DNA, if you think about a lot of the companies that have outperformed the market, they're asset light, right? They don't have big cap backs. Airbnb, Uber said, no, we don't want to be in the business of owning real estate.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
We don't want to be in the business of owning cars. We're going to leverage other people's CapEx investment.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
So Dara said, rather than go into AI and announce big partnerships and that we're putting $10 billion into AI and autonomous, he just said, no, I'll draft off of other people's CapEx, in this case, Google and Waymo, which has spent kind of 15 years and tens of billions of dollars, and I'll give them – I'll co-brand. I'll have an offering. This is kind of how you do it.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Are you watching? I don't even know who's in the... Claire, do you know who's in the Super Bowl? By the way, Claire, I have a... Oh my God, I just realized. You're in my house, Claire. I literally thought she has the same climbing wall I have.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And no one's complaining that Apple didn't go deep into AI spending. They said, OK, similar to how Uber evaluated autonomous and said there are other people spending more money then we need to. We'd be playing catch up. Why don't we just become a remora fish off of that giant spending?
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And despite the deep seek meltdown, Apple has not registered a loss in their stock because they never decided to get into this arms race. So I really, I'm shocked. I think Uber arguably, I don't want to say it's been the biggest turnaround, but I think that You needed someone sort of crazy and irreverent and provocative and build fast and break things in Travis Kalanick.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I don't think he gets enough credit for what he envisioned and what he built. I think it's extraordinary. But Dara came in and has just made a series of very what I'd call smart, thoughtful moves. I was about to sneeze. Sorry. That's my pre-ketamine face. By the way, if you run into me tonight and I like me, it means I've tried the ketamine.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Instead of my screensaver, I have a picture of Preet Bharara in his phone number because he's my one call if I get into trouble. So I used to be my boys on my screensaver. Now it's going to be Preet because if I get really fucked up, I'm calling him. He just seems like very responsible and he can get me out of any bad situation.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Last year, Hooters closed dozens of restaurants because of rising food and labor costs.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup. Episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube. By the way, I absolutely love Vivintu. I think she does a great job.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Here in the kids' room. I do have a climbing wall, and my kids have climbed—my kids climbed for a good 30 minutes, and now it's just a decorative piece that cost me about 40 ZipRecruiter ads.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I love Spotify. I think I picked it as one of my stock picks five years ago. I went flat for three years, so I got it wrong. But there are very few companies that are able to take an entire medium. and distill it down to an app, a searchable app. I can find anything on Spotify. And people say, well, Apple and Amazon have done the same thing. But to your point, they've really innovated.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
The rap thing, I thought, I'm not entirely sure how you connect rap to more revenues. I thought it was cool. And I like Spotify saying, by the way, you listen to Tom Petty and some DJs and that's about it. But how does that—I'm curious. I don't understand the mechanics of how that translates to more revenue. Tell me, young person, what is happening on Spotify?
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Okay, the handbag you can probably manage without. But what about a house? Surely that's actually good, right? We're going to find out this week on Explain It To Me. New episodes every Sunday morning, wherever you get your podcasts.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
That's right, Chiefs and Eagles. Chiefs and Eagles.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Let me just give you a little insight into the role that streaming music plays in mating. If you're ever at home with your girlfriend and you're thinking, I don't want to have kids and I don't want to have sex.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Just play ad-supported Pandora. Yeah. Nothing says do not mate with me. You are taking the evolutionary pool down a couple notches if you have sex with someone who has ad-supported Pandora. I play, I love, I still have ad-supported streaming radio and I think it's hilarious. I play it and I'm like, oh my God, the commercials are so bad. Listen to this commercial.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I've never actually been a sports fan until my kids— I decided to give up golf and watching all sports and poured into fitness and trying to— Spend more time with clients such that we could develop a father-son parasocial relationship, and they'd pay me millions of dollars to consult. And then I could, at some point, buy one quarter of a Gulfstream. You know what I'm doing tonight?
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Anyways, but back to, I'm shocked. I thought you would have had Spotify. I absolutely love Spotify. And also they have the best party. Just so you know, they have the best party at Cannes, Ed. Oh, really? I'll take you. You can be my date.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Well, isn't that fucking precious? Well, here, if you... And if you get in front of a group of kids in high school, tell them not to be music artists because it's a shitty industry with too many people fighting over too few revenues and a series of platforms that are developed in a monopoly. So... Okay. The notion that's... That's great virtue signaling. You know, good for you.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And it's not going to mean dick. It's not... These guys are doing their job. If you wanted... All right. Are you sincere? Pull your shit off of Spotify. Are you really sincere about helping an event? Call your friends. Do you hang out with Beyonce? Do you know Taylor Swift? And pull your shit off of Spotify. Because as long as you have oligopolies, they're going to extract more and more.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And they find that the best way to get retention is to just consistently recommend Taylor Swift over and over. And the notion that she's going to bully the record labels, Spotify is not worth more than all the record labels. So if she really wanted to have an impact, let me do some virtue signaling.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I think I'm going to do ketamine tonight. Really? I went out with some friends last night, and they were having such a good time. And I'm like, what are you drinking? They're like, oh, no, we don't drink. We're on ketamine. I'm like, really? And I'm having trouble, Ed. Really? I'm having trouble disassociating.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
When Spotify decided to not fact check Joe Rogan, who would have one legitimate doctor on one day and then an illegitimate doctor the next day and create all sorts of vaccine hesitancy and false equivalences, I called them and said, we're pulling Prof G off of Spotify. I pulled my shit down and it cost us somewhere between a quarter of a half a million.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
So yeah, put your money where your fucking mouth is. Pull off of Spotify. But this notion that you're going to shame people in the audience to... paying artists who aren't making them any money, more money, yeah, good luck with that. Have at it.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I think we're in the middle of a second insurrection and no one's talking about it, and it's freaked me out and got me really upset. So I think I need to disassociate, and I'm hearing good things about ketamine. Do your friends do ketamine, Ed?
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
We need a different term than boomery. Look, the digitization of markets results in a consolidation of winner-take-most environment. You digitize retail, you end up with one company with 50% of all e-commerce. You digitize connections and socialization online, you end up... With one company, Meta, that owns two-thirds of all social interactions online.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
You digitize information, one company ends up with 93% share of search. You digitize mating and online dating, and 80% to 90% of all swipe rights happens amongst the 10% of most attractive males, right? Men are less choosy. Women are more choosy. They all want the same guy. And the same thing's happening on these channels.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
When you digitize a platform, Taylor Swift gets more listen, more listen time than all of classical music now. Taylor Swift is bigger than classical music or jazz, the entire genre.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And it's because the algorithms, they consolidate and they say, okay, when everyone has access to everything, the very best, and Taylor Swift is the very best, according to hopped up 14-year-olds on sugar, they consolidate the market. Now, I don't know if there's anything you can do.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
The only things you can really do about this on a systemic level is to make sure you have a really robust FTC and DOJ that makes sure there's a lot of competition, such that you transfer money back from the monopolies to the artists, to the means of production, to the labor force.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
The other thing you can do is have minimum wage of 25 bucks an hour, such that if these people have side hustles, they're at least making a good living. But let me just clue young people in. The world does not owe you your passion. And you don't have the right, the birthright to make music. You have the birthright, in my opinion, to have healthcare. I mean, let's start there.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
There's a few things I do that are illegal, and I continue to engage in them, Ed.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Healthcare, universal childcare, you don't have a birthright to be an independent music producer or independent musician and make money. The vanity industries will always have an overinvestment in human capital and there'll be a small number and increasingly, unfortunately, small number of people. What I think you have to do is say, okay, if you're the backup drummer on a Kellogg's ad, you're
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
They have to pay you at least 25 bucks an hour. Anyways, I think this is a social issue and we need to break up monopolies of which I'm not sure you could say Spotify is a monopoly. Everything's going Hunger Games. The winners leave it a remarkable life and everyone else dies a slow death.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And if you want to change that, you have to make systemic change at education levels, antitrust levels, but believing that somehow shaming the record labels or Spotify into paying people nothing. You know why they pay these people nothing? Because they can.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I know you did it the legal way. Pot's legal now, so yeah. Edibles are legal, so that's not a problem. Right, yeah, exactly. Actually, I don't do that much that's illegal.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And by the way, the only way it gets better is if it becomes such a shitty business that just people don't go into music and over time they have to pay them more. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I was hoping to stick something up with my – I was hoping to find an attractive woman with some gloves handy.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Oh, that's right. We have a team meeting. You're all presenting your business plan.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Get to the headlines, Ed.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
,,,,,,, . . . . . ., the, P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P,實 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , a in I think we want to be, we could be number one in business. We're talking about, by the way, in a meeting today, folks, we're talking about Ed going daily.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
We're talking about doing a daily property markets to talk about the markets because the news keeps coming. But I think we could be number one in business. We're in the top 10 in business and occasionally pop into the top five. But that guy, David Ramsey, who keeps selling expensive mutual funds and saying that you can pick a mutual fund.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I love shitposting our competition. That's so classy, isn't it? That's so big of me. But anyways, let's go back to my prediction where I can actually lift up young people. Diary of a CEO, Stephen Barlett. He's the new Joe Rogan.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
So, that's, uh... I always know when it's coming.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
It's not sullen. It's my age. You're kidding. I'm happy. If you continue to perform like this, Daddy might be able to get a Gulfstream. I want to motivate you. I want to keep you in the game. Super exciting. I promise to send you photos. Okay. Seriously, Ed, something to look forward to. Now get out there, little soldier.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
It's clear who the number one is in streaming, but they're all fighting to be number two. They're like, okay, the number two will survive, and it's not entirely clear who's number two.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And the race for number two is between, in my opinion, the artisanal sort of HBO that's created an incredible culture that produces kind of the water cooler zeitgeist moment of content, and then Disney, which has just such singular clear positioning around family, and then bundling Hulu and ESPN. I think it's ESPN+. It's a pretty good offering.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Now, they were able to raise prices of 4%, which isn't a huge price increase, but it is a price increase, and basically... They lost $700,000, but they would argue that's flat. That does kind of communicate that they have some pricing power. I would argue that's a good thing. Netflix's churn is 2% while Disney's is 5%. That may not sound like a lot, but it's huge.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
It means that every three years, Disney has to reinvent their entire customer base that Netflix does not. In addition... you have this incredible transfer or means of production. What do I mean? What Japan did Detroit, Netflix is doing to Hollywood.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And that is Netflix announced that the majority of their content, more than 50% of their 15 to $18 billion they spent on content is being spent and or if you will, produced overseas. They're not doing that because they like Spanish people or they want more multiculturalism in their content. They're doing it
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Because they figured out they can get a gaffer, a writer, an actor, a producer, sound engineer, studio construction folks for 40% to 60% of the cost of what it is in the U.S. Whereas Disney, the percentage of content spent overseas is 4%. But what Netflix has said is that if I have every week, not a 10, but I have just a shit ton of 7s and 8s, People don't cancel.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
You do start to see fatigue. I would even argue... Like Deadpool and Wolverine, I love both those actors. I think they're fantastic. And I'm like, I'm not sure I'm gonna see the next one. I'm like, okay, I think I'm sort of done with this franchise. Anyways, what's really interesting here though is that the parks did well.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And that is, and if you think about it, AI can't replace the parks, or at least I don't think it can. There's still something especially wonderful or especially horrible if you're the parent about Walt Disney World, right? Netflix is going to have a tough time. And to Universal's credit, they spent the money and the decades to build those franchise businesses.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
But Atoms are, this is your notion, that Atoms are more important than bits. But the Disney business right now, the strongest part of the business, as far as I can tell, is the parks, the cruises, and the resorts. Because it's hard for Netflix to spin up a cruise ship business. These things take a long time and they're good at the in-person stuff. Absolutely.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Today's number, $8 million. That's how much a 30-second ad spot on the Super Bowl cost this year, an all-time record. Ed, nothing says American exceptionalism like four hours of beer, boner pill ads, and men giving each other CTE for our entertainment. It's essentially Rome, but instead of Lions, we have Taylor Swift, Ed. We have Taylor Swift.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Yeah, but they can license content. I mean, for example, Harry Potter, Lego. I think Lego licensed its IP to someone who knows how to run those parks. I don't know if it's a division of Lego. Maybe it is. Legoland. By the way, you'll see when you have sons. Legoland, in my opinion, is the least awful of all of them. Legoland's amazing. That was my favorite growing up. Oh, really?
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Oh, yeah, that's right. I forgot how young you are. But I took my sons to the Lego hotel, and it was pretty cool. It's epic. I love the image of little Ed at Legoland. Right? Building's scary. You're like, I can build something bigger than that. Anyways.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Oh, not for a while. If you had to guess. I would guess... Fall of 26. Yeah, it's going to take a while.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
No, I am. You will see soon. I do have a cameo in what is the hottest show on HBO in several seasons. I do have a voice cameo. So I'm excited about that. We'll have a party. You'll all come over. We'll all celebrate and we'll watch it together. None of that is true. None of that is true. But it's a nice thought, isn't it? If I was kind of a more loving and engaged boss.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Get out of my climbing room, Claire. Don't touch anything. Anyway, sorry. Go ahead.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Isn't it? I mean, at least that's what society wants us to think. Gotta get a Birkin, gotta get a home, you know.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I would argue that the space is just getting started. The GLP-1 drugs, the category, everything I've read, I just think this technology is incredible. The next sort of question, though, is how many competitors are in the space?
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And also, Aswath Damodaran, who we had on last week, made an interesting point, and that is for him, Nova Nordisk, his view was they kind of slipped and fell on Bagovin and Zempik.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I mean, Meta showed an ability to create another or acquire another product in Instagram, right? Google launched YouTube. You know, these companies, Microsoft has an incredible cloud. These companies have shown an ability to innovate more than, you know, repeatedly, and his view was Novo Nordisk hasn't really demonstrated that.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Welcome to Property Markets. That was sort of a thoughtful Super Bowl-themed intro. Banter. Super Bowl. Do you care?
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Yeah. I think the Brexit analogy is the correct one. And by the way, we've been making that analogy since the very beginning, ever since he said the word tariff, which is, it was an extremely emotionally compelling argument at the time to tell everyone that this sovereign nation is being screwed by its partners. And no one had...
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
I would say, the attention span to go in and look at the data and actually understand what was happening. And it was more exciting to assume that we're getting screwed and that we need to sort of batten down the hatches and turn inward. And we saw the effects of that play out over multiple years. And we've covered it in many episodes before.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
The UK economy is absolutely dog shit, is what I would say right now. You know, you said they flatlined. They haven't flatlined. They've contracted. I mean, it's been a total disaster. And the entire country recognizes that now. They recognize, oh, yeah, that was a mistake. So we've said from the beginning, you know, this is the same thing at play.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
We're getting very excited about the idea that we're getting patriotic. And, you know, we're going to sort of say, fuck you to our quote unquote enemies who are in reality our friends, actually. and we're going to be pro-America, quote-unquote, America first. And we've said from the beginning, it's not going to work. It's going to tank the economy. It's going to tank the stock market.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
I said that to many of my MAGA friends, and they said I had Trump derangement syndrome. It's very, very simple stuff. Now, you say, what is the reasoning here? I'll just tell you what the reasoning that I'm hearing from the MAGA base is. The argument from Trump supporters right now is basically twofold. One, The first is that this is a long-term play. They would point to our debt load.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
They would point to our deficit. They would say this is not sustainable and that failure on this path is inevitable in the next, call it, 20 years. So if we don't shake things up dramatically right now, we are essentially admitting defeat. And if we do this, we can, you know,
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
reconstitute a new economy that is less dependent on government debt, as it has been in the past, and is more dependent on revenue, external revenue, as he puts it, from tariffing other countries. So that's sort of the first argument, that it's, you know, a long-term play. The second is that it's a negotiating tactic. And they would say, you know, these tariffs, they're probably not here to stay.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
But what it does is it freaks everyone out. It shows all these other nations, we're serious, we'll actually do this stuff. And it will allow us to bring them to the table and make them do whatever they want, whatever we want. So, that would be their argument.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
My issue is those two arguments are completely contradictory because it's either a real policy that has long-term benefits or it's like a pump fake and a negotiating tactic. It can't be both. So, I would like to get your response to their response. What would be your reaction to their arguments?
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Either one, that we have to do this because America is screwed on this long-term debt path, or two, this is 40 chess, it's a negotiating tactic.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
We'll be right back after the break. If you're enjoying the show so far and you haven't subscribed, be sure to give ProfgMarket a follow wherever you get your podcasts.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
We're back with Profiteer Markets. You know, an argument I keep seeing and which Scott Besant made, you know, he has that quote that people are citing a lot. This is a MAG-7 problem, not a MAGA problem. And I think that's worth addressing because his point is that, yeah, sure, we'll see multiple contraction, but the top 10% owns almost 90% of the stock market.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
which means that the only demographic that this sell-off is really going to affect is rich people. And I just want to clarify the truth of this point, which I think has been seriously perverted over the past couple of years, because there is truth to that point. You know, it is true that the stock market is primarily owned by rich people.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
And you made that point during COVID where we were artificially pumping stimulus into the economy such that we could maintain the multiples that we had gotten used to in the stock market. And your point was, like, the stock market falling isn't a catastrophe because this isn't Main Street. You know, this will largely affect rich people. It won't affect poor people as much.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
But that argument has now been perverted and advanced into a total untruth, where they make the claim that the stock market has no correlation with the real economy, that the idea that the stock market falling has no effect on poor people at all. Which is not true at all, because actually the stock market is a reflection of the real economy.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Yes, it's not one-to-one, but if you see a contraction in earnings, if you see an increase in tariffs, which means that the burden is going to be shouldered by the companies who are importing those goods, then what we're going to start to see is, one, an increase in prices. We're expected to see above 4% inflation this year. And two, we're going to see layoffs.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
This is going to massively affect the job market. So whenever I see that argument that a lot of people seem to be making right now, well, this is only going to affect rich people. That's actually not true. Yes, it does affect rich people. Yes, it affects multiples and people whose assets are largely held in the stock market. But it also is going to affect poor people.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
If you have a recession in the stock market, eventually it does trickle down into the real economy and you're going to see massive job losses, massive layoffs. It's going to be so hard to enter this job market if you're just graduating from college in the next year or two. So I just think we need to dispel that myth because...
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
What started as an important point about who really owns the stock market has been twisted and perverted into some weird justification into tanking the economy at large, which is going to affect everyone in the US. But I would also like to get your thoughts on that.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Well, but there are ways to do it without making poor people poorer. Fair enough. There are ways to... you know, extract the obscene wealth that we've been seeing accumulated among the rich. And it appears that that's the justification that they are using for this policy.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
But there's a way to do that, which doesn't also make poor people poorer in the form of layoffs, a tighter job market, and of course, inflation. That's the most important impact we're going to see. This is going to be massively inflationary. It's going to hit poor people the hardest." And the way you do that is, as you say, you get your act together on taxes. That's how you do it.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
And so I think the double whammy, as you say, is the right way to put it. Yes, this is going to affect rich people negatively, but it's also going to affect poor people negatively. And there is a way...
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
to implement policy that can address the massive wealth inequality that we've seen over the past few years, but to suddenly, after making this insane policy, then say, oh, this was all part of the plan because look how rich everyone is. Having enriched those same people for many, many years, to me, it's just, they're completely fumbling the ball here.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
But I want to move on to what people can actually do about this. So, you know, we lost more than $6 trillion in value in the stock market. The dollar shed 6% of its value. The odds of a recession, according to JP Morgan, have now risen to 60%. So in all likelihood, we can expect a recession in 2025. I'd just like to get some advice from you. Um, And let's start with young people.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Let's start with me, for example. This could be the first real recession of my professional career. What would be your advice for a young person like me? What should I be doing with my money? And what exactly should I be worried about if a recession is coming this year?
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Yeah, I think the worst thing that you could do right now is panic sell. And I just want to make clear for everyone who's listening to your advice right now, you're not saying sell your S&P and go buy the euro stocks. You're saying hold your S&P, take what cash you have, and go diversify into other markets. And I think that makes a lot of sense.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
The other thing that a lot of people are talking about right now, though, which I'd like to get your thoughts on, is buying the dip. You know, hedge funds... They sold over $40 billion in stocks on Thursday, which is the highest net sell-off from hedge funds since 2010.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Meanwhile, retail investors bought almost $5 billion worth of stocks on Thursday, which is the highest net purchase from retail investors in the past 10 years. In other words, institutions are selling and retail investors are actually buying. They're leaning into it. They're buying the dip. So what are your thoughts on buying the dip right now?
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Do you think this is a good time to buy the dip or do you think we should be waiting a little longer?
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Sorry. No, I'm happy to talk about the asymmetry. And what I brought up in the previous podcast, which we will get to, is that the U.S. is not getting screwed in the way that we think we are. And we will cover that. Before that, I just want to go over what exactly happened.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
We're back with Prof G Markets. I would like to pivot to advice for older people. Someone, say, closer to retirement age. Someone who has been... Get a colonoscopy. Someone who's been... You're going to be dead soon.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
But on a serious note, I mean, there are people who have been building their retirement accounts for a long time. They've just seen the value of that account slash more than 10%. I'm sure a lot of people are legitimately panicking right now.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
I think for young people, it's actually a lot less stressful because as you've made the point before, we actually, for a lot of us, we don't really own assets. it's kind of a nice thing when the stock market's on sale. We'll just earn our income in cash and then convert that into assets when we buy the stock market.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
And hopefully it goes down a little bit and then we can see it grow over a lifetime. But for someone who is, say, in their 60s, who has been building up the asset base, and this is the asset base they are ready to live off of, What would you say to that?
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
So Trump's 10% tariffs on all exports to the US and higher rates for roughly 60 countries are the most severe American tariffs in a century. The markets offered a swift and damning condemnation of those policies with one of the worst sell-offs in recent memory. In the two trading days following the announcement, the S&P 500 dropped 11% to its lowest level in 11 months.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
By the way, my prediction was right. Not for all the right reasons, but I said Apple would hit, go below $200 in the next six months. It did. You did. So chalk it up as a win.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq followed the Russell 2000 into bear market territory, down 20% from its peak in February. The speed of that drop is rivaled only by the pandemic and the dot-com implosion. The Dow closed Friday, down more than 2,000 points for only the fourth time in history.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
I would like to just make, as we wrap up here, one point about America, because I think a lot of people, they are panicked about what's happening in the U.S. stock market. They're panicked about what Trump is doing. And there's no doubt about it. I mean, what he's doing is, quite frankly, insane. And both commentators on the left and the right agree on all of this.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
And this is why we're seeing this unbelievable reaction in the stock market. What I would say, though, about America and investing in America, I mean, Buffett has that great saying, never bet against America. If this were happening in China... or some autocratic nation, I think it would probably be a good idea to sell everything you have.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
All told, we should probably just reiterate the number you used at the start of the show, which is that the US stock market lost a record $6.6 trillion in two days. Okay, now that we've just gotten the basics out of the way, there are many places we could start. I guess the first place that I would start...
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Because what it means is that the government is taking us in the complete wrong direction. And I think you could expect that would happen and play out over 10, 20, 30 years. I mean, Xi Jinping, as an example, has installed himself as the indefinite leader of China. He's never coming out. The great thing about America is that we live in a democratic system.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
And what we're seeing happen and what we've seen over the last week or so is the markets and the world is kind of coming to its senses that what this guy's doing doesn't really make any sense.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
And we're one of the few nations in the world where when we install someone who's crazy into the office, and this was written up in the constitution, the constitution was built with all of these checks and balances and all of these designs that was specifically meant to brace for the impact of installing someone stupid. And that is what we have right now.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
We've seen from these tariff policies, I mean, this is a stupid leader that is making stupid policy decisions. The wonderful thing about America is that we'll vote him out. I mean, if this continues and things get really, really bad, we'll just vote him out. And we're one of the few nations in the world that can do that. And I think the reality is... Yes, the stock market's down today.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
It'll probably be down tomorrow and the next week. But if you take a longer-term view, we have the luxury of knowing that if things get really, really bad, we will just take action and decide to change them. And we can change the trajectory of both the economy and the stock market. And so for those reasons, you know, I... I agree.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
I think it's good to diversify, but I definitely don't think that it's time to sell. I don't think this is a moment where the U.S. is doomed and it's doomed forever. The great thing about the U.S. is the fact that it is democratic and we can get ourselves out of holes every four years. And so if things continue in this trajectory, that's exactly what will happen.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
and that a lot of people are talking about is how these tariffs were actually calculated, right? So, I mean, I think most people know by now the tariff rates that this administration chose had actually nothing to do with the existing tariff rates in the world, right? Instead, what they did was they took the trade deficit of each country, they divided it by the imports.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Well, we will definitely be continuing that conversation over the next several years. So I'm glad everyone will join us for the ride. Let's take a look at the week ahead. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo will kick off first quarter earnings season. We'll certainly be listening to what Jamie Dimon has to say about the tariffs. and what's happened in the markets.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
We'll also see inflation data for March from the Consumer Price Index. Scott, do you have any predictions?
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
That's how they determined the existing tariff rate, quote unquote. And then to get the new tariff rate, they divided that number by two. This calculation, I'm sure you've read about it before. People are covering it. It actually has no relationship with the actual tariffs on the U.S. It's measuring a completely different thing.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
So, you know, I think that's a big part of why the markets reacted so badly. The markets realized, oh, my God, not only are these people serious about these tariffs, but they're also incredibly stupid and misinformed. And I think that was the big freak out for everyone.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Now, on the point that you asked me to raise in terms of the trade symmetry, I think what was really interesting to me was this recent article that we saw from the Washington Post, which explains how this whole calculation went down. What happened was...
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Trump asked his team to do the analysis and to go out and find out, okay, what actually is the effective tariff rate on each nation, which is a difficult thing to do because, you know, these tariffs, they're not universal. They're specific to each item, and then that rate can change depending on your relationship with a certain country.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
In other words, determining a number, a tariff rate, is a difficult thing to do. But his team did it. They went out. They did the analysis. And they went to the president and they brought him a menu of options. They said, okay, we did what you asked. Here is what we could do. And he looked at the menu and he said, I don't like it. I want to do something else.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
And that's when he decided on this new trade deficit formula, which again has nothing to do with actual tariffs. And this gets back to what I discussed last week. which is that if you actually look at the numbers and you look at our relationship with all of these countries, we're not the victim we like to think we are. Many countries charge less than we do.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
Most of our largest trading partners charge around the same that we do. And in fact, if you look at the last 15 years, the US has implemented the most amount of hawkish trade interventions of any nation. And so what I think happened was the Trump team went out, they found the data, they did the analysis, they showed him the data, they showed him the truth.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
And then Trump looked at it and he said, I don't like the data. I don't like the truth because it doesn't fit with my narrative. So what we're going to do now is we're going to make up the data and we're going to make up the truth. And that's what that board was that he was holding in the Rose Garden. It was basically a fabricated list.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
It was like an imaginary world of what if the tariff rates were this amount? And then we will just divide that what if number by two in order to make you believe that America is getting screwed. So...
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
That's – it's a very interesting dynamic following what I talked about on the last episode, which is, you know, look – do the numbers, do the math, look at the actual tariff rates, do the hard work of understanding what is going on in the economy, and you will conclude as – is usually the case, America's not really getting screwed on much.
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
In fact, we're the most powerful nation in the world for a reason. We're actually quite stringent on other nations on many things, including tariffs. But Trump, it didn't fit with his narrative. Trump needs to believe that America is getting screwed by foreigners. And so it was a...
Prof G Markets
The $6.6 Trillion Sell-off
miraculous thing to see him literally make up the numbers and i think the most concerning and disturbing thing is seeing his team just playing the sycophantry once again clapping at his announcement and basically pretending that he's got it all right having just told him these are what the real numbers are and he said no i don't like those numbers and they capitulated
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Ich denke, ich bin am Amazon-Wert stärker als du. Und um Balls and Strikes zu nennen, hatten wir hier in London die Internet-Reaktion. Und Drew schlug sofort die Jets ab und wir hatten jemanden, dieser Typ kam her und er ging raus und kaufte ein Starlink, ein Portable. Und er hat es aufgehängt. Und es war nicht so gut, aber in vier Stunden hatten wir eine ziemlich robuste Broadband.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Das Produkt ist exzeptionell. Und ich denke einfach, es ist seltsam und fast seltsam, dass wir einen Mann kontrollieren würden, zwei Drittel von Low-Earth-Satelliten, Low-Earth-Orbit-Satelliten. Das fühlt sich für mich fast wie ein Sicherheitsrisiko an. Where I'm more bullish on Amazon is that I don't think Amazon needs to get to product parity.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Because I think the vision here, if I were Jeff Bezos, I'd wait till I had a decent product. And then you know what I'd stitch it in with? The Kuiper offering? Amazon Prime. 82% of Americans have...
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Amazon Prime ist vermutlich der erfolgreichste und größte Loyalty-Programm in der Geschichte und vielleicht der zweite größte recurring revenue-Produkt in der Geschichte, vielleicht hinter Netflix oder Microsoft Office. Seine Marke ist so tief in Bezug auf Vertrauen in eine Konsumverleihung und ich denke, dass Musk anfängt, seine Marke zu kontaminieren. Bezos wird den Gap schließen.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Sie haben den Gap-Kapital. Zu Ihrem Punkt, ich bin mir nicht sicher, ob sie überhaupt aufhören. Aber sie reden darüber, dass sie 3200 Satelliten haben wollen. Aber ich denke, wenn sie da, sagen wir, 80 oder 90 Prozent von Starlink haben, wird Starlink die Hand gezwungen, und ich denke, SpaceX wird müssen, um mehr Kapital zu bekommen. Aber das wird ein Celebrity-Deathmatch werden.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Eines der Dinge, über die wir in Brand Strategy sprechen, ist, dass eine der Schlüsse, oder die Pillar der Branding, Bewusstsein ist. Wenn man sich über die Produkte denkt, die man verkauft, You're really unlikely to purchase a product you've never heard of, or you're much more inclined to purchase anything you hear of the brand. Oh, I would buy a Toyota.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
For big purchases, you just don't want to buy anything that you haven't heard of. Think about it just on a personal level, people's brands. I think it's something like 40 times more likely to respond to an email from someone you know, or even if you don't know them well, you've just heard of them, than someone whose name you don't recognize. So awareness is enormous.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And I think Kuiper is about to become one of the fastest zero to 60 brands in history. And that is, I would bet less than 1% of the US population knows brand Kuiper right now. And I would bet 60 to 80% by the end of the year know it. Because it's going to be constantly in the news, right? I mean, it ends up that maybe shooting Katy Perry into space wasn't a bad idea.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
That's a very telling comment, because the difference between romance and creepiness is the perceived attractiveness of the person making the overture. Und es ist unmöglich zu wissen, ob das schrecklich oder romantisch ist.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
It was probably a bad idea to bring her back. But maybe this technology... Diese Technologie, auf die er all diese Geld investiert hat, ist für einen Grund, oder? Außer, dass er seine Freundin in den Raum sendet. Und Amazon hat den Kapital, sie haben die technische Expertise. Ich wette, sie werden viele Leute von SpaceX finden, die bereit sind, für sie zu arbeiten.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Das könnte zu Starlink, was Old Navy ist, zu Gap sein. 80 Prozent der Qualität für 50 Prozent der Preis. Und es gibt einen Markt für das. Ja. And the moment they stitch it into Amazon Prime, I think the thing gets 10, 15, 20 percent of households. It made me, you know, I've been slowly but surely burning down my U.S. equities. I've been selling Apple and a little bit of Amazon.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And I'm actually now thinking about holding on to my Amazon, because I think the Those countervailing forces here, speaking of China, two-thirds of Amazon's business is in the U.S., and I think the U.S. can be negatively impacted. But I think this is very exciting for Amazon, and I just love seeing a company that's as important as SpaceX get a competitor. I think it'll make them both better.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
So I'm actually... Really excited. Starlink, by the way, so far, has projected revenue in 2025 of 12.3 billion. That's up 57%. 7.6 million subscriptions projected by the end of 2025, a 65% increase. Again, 7.6 million. Keep in mind, Amazon... I think has about 110 or 120 million households have Prime.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Basically, more people have Amazon Prime than have a Christmas tree, own a gun or have kids.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Yeah, it'll be something like Amazon Prime Plus, where it's like, okay, flip the switch on here, tell us when you're home, give us a window, and we're gonna come install this cool, elegant, whatever it is, and overnight you have massively blinding Internet speeds. And The thing that people underestimate is just how lazy consumers are.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Ich glaube, sie sind faszinierend. Ich liebe das ganze, glaubst du an Liebe auf der ersten Seite oder soll ich wieder vorbeikommen? Ich liebe das. Aber nein, mein aktueller und hoffentlich zukünftiger Partner... 20, 21 Jahre ago. I just went up to her at the pool of the Raleigh Hotel and I said, where are you guys from? So that wasn't much of a line. That wasn't that creative.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
I got so excited about Jeff Bezos standing up to Donald Trump and deciding to post tariffs next to every product that I went out, no joke, I went on Amazon and I ordered 16 Bose Ultra headphones for the team. Und ich dachte, okay, ich werde $6,400 auf Amazon sparen und ich werde auf Threads und Blue Sky und Virtue Signal gehen, wie groß es ist, dass Amazon das tut. Und dann kam der Arschloch.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Und ich bin so, ich bin auf Threads, gut für ihn. Er hat sich gedreht und trotz all der menschlichen Wachstumshormone, er hat diese kleinen, kleinen, kleinen, kleine Dinge gefunden, die Testikale genannt werden. Und ich habe mich entschieden, sie in Aktion zu bringen. Gut für ihn, gut für Bezos.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Letztendlich. Ich trete, das ist, was Leidenschaft aussieht, sende. Und plötzlich bekomme ich einen Text von Kara Swisher, er hat sich gekabelt. He caved. She saw my thread and literally as she saw my thread, she's like, he caved. You're wrong. He caved. He's a fucking wimp and a loser. And I'm like, and so I go back to Amazon and I cancel my order.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
I was just going to say, do we get the headphones? No, we don't. No, bitch. Call Amazon. Call Bezos and tell him to start acting like an American. All right, I'll take it up with him. Aber das Wichtigste an dieser Geschichte ist, dass es so unabhängig ist, Dinge von Amazon Prime hinzuzufügen, dass es, wenn es aufkommt und sagt, Scott, Amazon Prime Plus enthält dieses blinde Broadband. Wow.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Ich würde beten, Gott, ich weiß nicht, ich würde beten, dass man bei der Ende von 27 sehr einfach Kuiper mehr Penetration als Starlink sehen könnte.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Vielen Dank. Das war's für heute. Bis zum nächsten Mal. Deine Investitionen verdienen eine Plattform, die sie so ernsthaft wie du nutzt. Fundiere deinen Account in fünf Minuten oder weniger bei public.com.prop.g und bekommst bis zu 10.000 Dollar, wenn du dein altes Portfolio transferierst. Das ist public.com.prop.g. Paid for by Public Investing.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal, brokered services for US-listed registered securities, options and bonds, and a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., Ich sollte auch sagen, dass ich ein Investor im Publikum bin. Vielen Dank.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
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Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
But I was much more handsome then, so I didn't need to be that creative. Right. I think pickup lines are more for banter.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
More than 10,000 global businesses trust Vanta to achieve compliance and save them time while they're at it. Starting and running a business is hard. Let Vanta help make it a little bit easier. Go to vanta.com to meet with a Vanta expert about your business needs. That's vanta.com. Support for the show comes from Groons.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
If you've ever gone down the rabbit hole of trying different nutrition solutions, you've likely had the thought, surely there's a way to improve my skin, gut health, immunity and brain fog without offending my taste buds. Well, there is. It's called Groons. Groons are a convenient, comprehensive formula packed into eight delicious gummies a day.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
It's not a multivitamin, a greens gummy or a prebiotic. It's all of those things and then some at a fraction of the price. In a Gruen's Daily Snack Pack you get more than 20 vitamins and minerals plus more than 60 whole food ingredients, all of which help you out in different ways.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Yeah. How about you?
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
For example, Gruen's has six times the gut health ingredients compared to the leading green powders, like biotin and niacinamide, which help with thicker hair, nails and skin health. They also contain mushrooms, which can help with brain function. And of course, you're probably familiar with vitamin C and how it's great for your immune system.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
On top of it all, Gruins are vegan and free of nuts, dairy and gluten. Get up to 45% off when you go to Gruins.co and use the code PROPG. That's G-R-U-N-S.co using code PROPG for 45% off.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Daddy went deep in the paint last night. I'm not used to working on Friday. I'm used to long walks with the dog and trying to get this newsletter out. As you can tell by the way I'm dressed. And my green juice. Most importantly, the door women from Chiltern did a pop-up last night at the Broadway Hotel, and it was pretty good.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
I spilled drinks on all my friends, which at the time was kind of a bummer, but it's brought me real joy today, just thinking about that moment. I mean, literally, I went and got four drinks, and not an ounce of it was not on them within about 30 seconds. So look, there's just no getting around it. All of these terms of Das ist ein guter, besserer Best, in Bezug auf die Einkommen.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Die Revenue ist um 13 Prozent, wie du gesagt hast. Was wirklich beeindruckend war, war, dass unsere Cloud-Unit die Revenue um 33 Prozent erhöht hat. Das ist einfach unglaublich. Und dann ist das Netto um 18 Prozent erhöht. The CapEx was interesting. You highlighted the first thing I noticed, and that is CapEx declined for the first time.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And I wonder how much of that is DeepSeek has given them a little bit of pause, saying maybe we don't need to build nuclear power plants and we're not in an arms race. That maybe there is a fork in the road here or a plan B where our AI future may not require the CapEx we'd initially thought. So it feels like they're maybe taking a pause on that.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Und dann ist sein Stock um 13 Prozent hoch, weil die Leute immer sagen, okay, was ist ein defensiver Spiel? Was ist ein rezessionsbefugtes Stock? Und Microsoft bringt dir ein bisschen das Hühnchenbrot eines Technikunternehmens mit ziemlich gutem Wachstum. with the chocolate of a defensive company, right?
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Because it really is, it's pretty well diversified, it's global, and it's hard to see how, other than impact on the global economy, how it can, you know, it would be really hurt versus an Amazon by the tariffs. I think it gets about half its revenues from overseas, whereas Amazon gets two-thirds of its revenues here. So it has both this recurring revenue stream of the largest
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
I don't know. I don't think that's as true or not as true for men. I think women, I think men get turned on with their eyes and women get turned on with their ears. I think if a guy has a good rap.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
corporate recurring revenue based in history with Microsoft Office that I think, you know, 5,000 of the corporate 5,000 companies use. And then it has the rocket fuel of a nice AI overlay. So it benefits from probably some of this insecurity because it's seen as quality in what is arguably right now a flight to quality. Your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
If you can make a woman laugh, you can ask her out on a date. I think it's all about, I think it's all about the rap. I think women are much more thoughtful in terms of their criteria for mating than dudes.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
I find the most interesting application of AI from a shareholder standpoint is actually pretty boring. And that is its meta's ability to increase the targeting of their products. So they are not only increasing their revenue. I think their revenue or the way they monetize their traffic has gone up. Their CPMs have gone up. Are they able to charge more?
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
But not only that, their AI, which feeds into the recommendation engine or the recommendation systems, contributed to a 35% increase in time spent on threads, 7% increase in time spent on Facebook. That's amazing. That's like getting younger people to watch MSNBC, right? If you can get more people to spend more time on Facebook, that's not easy at this point. 6% increase in Instagram. And then...
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Cute.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Wenn man sich das vorstellt, haben wir vor diesem Jahr erwartet, dass Meta die AI-Familie von 25 sein wird, weil sie die zweitgrößte Verkäufer von GPUs von Nvidia sind. Und ich persönlich, ich weiß nicht, ob ihr das bemerkt habt, habe gefunden, dass Instagram Reels immer mehr Zeit von TikTok für mich nimmt.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Und ich habe einen tangiblen Unterschied bemerkt in der Qualität des Algorithmus, des TikToks Algorithmus, um mir Content zu servieren, das relevant war. Und es fühlt sich an, als hätte Instagram Reels diese Fläche beendet. Und ich denke, das ist das Leveragen von AI und all diese Hin und Her und Nonsens zwischen Trump und China über das Bannen von TikTok, es nicht zu bannen.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Let's move on to Apple and Amazon. So Apple...
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Ed rollt auf und dialogiert den englischen Akzent. Er ist so, ich komme aus Princeton. Ich bin von... Ich bin nach Princeton gegangen. Geh zu den Headlines, Ed.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Ja. I think it was a Catherine Rampell or I forget who was on the pod and summarized it perfectly. Or maybe it was Kaila Scanlon who said that Apple is a mature company trading as if it's a growth company. I think that was me. That was you? What is it about you that reminds me of thoughtful women in economics? Anyways, Edwina. Edwina. The services revenue was the highlight.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
It grew 12% to 27 billion, even though that has slowed down. It's a slow since 2023. It's still double digit growth. Wearables fell 5%, missing estimates. So that's kind of, that's not good. The other thing that kind of shows an unusual operational misstep. I was really excited about Apple intelligence. I thought that if anyone could sort of consumerize other people's massive CapEx around Apple,
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
I thought it was going to be Apple, that they would just organize my photos and come up with sort of very useful ways to speak to my AirPods and say, Oh, we're out, it's loud, I'm taking the volume down. They do that a little bit, but I would have thought there would be a bunch of cool things, little features that they would be able to leverage. Totally drop the pole on that, yeah.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And they've branded it brilliantly. They call it Apple Intelligence, the AI features, but they've been delayed again. And it's unusual. Apple usually kind of under-promises and over-delivers. So they don't appear to have the same depth of...
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
human capital around ai some of some of the other guys i still feel that i still own some apple i've been selling it down i think it's overvalued at a pe of uh you know it's net income growth in 2024 negative three percent versus microsoft at up 21 alphabet up 36 amazon up 95 meta up 65 and nvidia up 145 percent and yet apple trades
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Das ist das gleiche PE-Multiple wie Microsoft bei 33, mehr als Amazon, das ist bei 31 und Alphabet ist bei 18. Ich meine, wenn man sich nur diese Dinge aus einem Pure-Valuation-Bottom-Up-Standpunkt anschaut, sieht es aus, als wäre Alphabet das teuerste und es sieht aus, als wäre Apple das teuerste.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
I think Apple is ground zero for what I call the great reversal of flows in the rivers. And that's what I'm writing about in today's No Mercy, No Malice. And that is, I think Apple could increase its earnings by 20 or 30 percent over the next five years. And I think the stock's still going to go down. Ja, genau.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
So the company could continue to perform and I still think the stock is going to struggle because I just think that it's the most, I think it's the most widely held stock in the world.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
It kind of identifies or marks American tech and I think as these rivers of capital begin to reverse flow, there's just no way that won't come out of what is the most valuable, iconic company in America when people look at it and say, great company, we love it. But if it's growing low single digits, does it really connote a growth-like valuation?
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
One, two thirds of those businesses in the US versus most of big techs is somewhere between half and one third. Medica only gets a third of their business domestically. And obviously they import a lot of products that will have tariffs on them. In addition, as goes AWS, goes Amazon. I mean, Amazon is essentially a cloud provider now with a retail unit.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And when you don't beat expectations on what is considered the white meat of your business, that your stock is going to get hit. Also, and this is a prediction, and as everyone who listens to this podcast knows, I am rotating out of US stocks and my Amazon position into European and Asian holdings. And I'm about to...
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Amazon zu verkaufen und es in Alibaba zu stellen, weil ich denke, was du in den nächsten Jahren sehen wirst, ist, dass Alibabas Cloud-Unit einen unnatürlichen Aufstieg von europäischen Verkäufern erzielt wird, die immer an amerikanischen Firmen für ihre Cloud- und Infrastruktursicherungsbedürfnisse abhängen.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And I think a year ago, if you'd showed up to the CEO of Mercedes or LVMH as the CEO, as Joe Tsai would probably, or the head of the cloud unit for Alibaba and said, we'd like to handle your data, they're like, China? No fucking way. Now, I don't think they're seen as much more mendacious as the US.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
So I think Alibaba's cloud unit is going to get more meetings across Europe and Latin America than they would have before this nonsense from the US.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
It's really insightful. It's sort of the AR-15 effect that whenever a Democrat would get elected, people go out and buy more guns for fear that gun legislation is actually going to get some traction. But Apple really doesn't have anything that interesting right now or new or fresh, so to speak. And that's really, I would have guessed that they would have been flat.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Und ich denke, du bist absolut richtig, dass es wahrscheinlich ein bisschen vorübergehend war. Und auch, es gibt keine Art und Weise, dass Tim Cook das beurteilen würde. Weil was das sagt, ist, oh, es sind nicht unsere Produkte, es ist nicht unser Marketing, es ist nicht die Qualität unserer Offerung.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Es ist ein unnatürlicher Zuckerhahn, der die Produktsales in den folgenden Quartieren zerstören wird, weil viele Leute Pre-Purchasingen haben, die sie in den nächsten Quartieren kaufen werden. Also, ich denke, das ist wirklich interessant. Ich habe darüber nachgedacht und ich denke, du bist absolut richtig.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Es gibt hier viele moralische Schädelungen. Und das ist mein Verständnis, dass die meisten Studenten, die Studentenrechte haben, in fünf Jahren keine Bezahlung erhalten haben. Und erinnere dich daran, dass die Menschen, die Studentenrechte haben, die viertel der Amerikaner sind, die nach der Schule gegangen sind.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And also debt is, it sucks to be a grown up, but if you take out debt, you're supposed to pay it back. And also there's a bit of a mythology here or semantics or incorrect nomenclature and that is payments have been stalled. No, payments have been made, but they're being made by all taxpayers. Because someone has owed this money and someone needs to collect interest on it.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Also ist es der US-Gesellschaft oder die US-Taxifahrer, alle von uns, die jetzt die finanzielle Entschädigung der Studentenlohne nicht zurückzahlen registrieren. Und ich denke, es tut weh, ein Gründer zu sein. Ich denke, du nimmst diesen Konto aus, du musst ihn zurückzahlen.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
In der gleichen Weise, wenn du einen Autolohn oder einen Konto ausgibst und du nicht bezahlt hast, kommen sie für dich oder sie kommen für das Asset. Und in diesem Fall können sie dein Degret nicht wiederholen. Das echte Problem ist, dass der Preis für eine höhere Bildung einfach zu hoch ist. Und es ist einfach viel schneller als die Inflation. Das ist das Kulprit.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Dann stellt sich die Frage, wie es runterkommt. Und einer der Gründe, warum es weiterkommt, schneller als die Inflation, ähnlich wie in jeder anderen Bubble, ist, weil es günstige Kredite gibt.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Und das ist, wenn du in eine Universität gehst und es gibt eine schöne Frau in einem Pantsuit mit einem großen College-Logo über ihrem Kopf, die sagt, investiere immer in dich selbst, du wirst in Ordnung sein. Und dann bekommst du ein Degree von einer Universität, die Teil der Kartelle ist, wo wir alle unsere Preise genau die gleiche Menge erhöhen.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Und dann kommst du raus und findest out, dass du keinen Job bekommst und endest als Barista und du hast 150.000 Dollar in Studentenrechnung. And the issuing university of that debt or the sponsoring university is not on the hook for any of that debt. Whereas Toyota does some diligence.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Toyota says, okay, if there's no way this person can pay back the money, we're not going to loan them the money because if we have to repossess the Toyota, it's going to cost us money. We're not going to be able to resell it for as much.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Whereas the incentive for any university with government-backed student loans and accreditation, and by the way, the people accrediting these universities are the incumbents, is just to encourage people to take out more and more student loans, regardless of the credit risk.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And until consumers start shopping around or holding their university accountable and saying, this fucking sucks, I brought a lot of money and I can't pay it back and it's your fault. There's no pressure on these universities to lower their tuition, and they still have access to cheap credit.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
The real solution here would probably be to put these universities on the hook for a portion of that bad student debt, such that they would say, okay, we have found that 40% of people with philosophy majors have a difficult time paying back their student debt. So if you're a philosophy major, we're going to limit the amount of student debt you have to X. And because they want to have as much
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
cheap free capital, they won't be able to raise tuition as fast as they have. So I'm really mixed here because I feel for younger people who I think have gotten a raw deal on so many levels. I like the idea of programs where some sort of working in industries where you don't
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
die traditionell nicht so hoch bezahlt sind, ob es um Bildung geht oder um Medizin in ruralen Bereichen oder um Nationalservice. Du solltest deine Studentenlohne haben, Geldverlängerung, Verlängerung, niedriger Interesse, was auch immer, vergeben. Aber die Idee, dass eine Generation von Leuten nur glaubt, dass Geld nicht wirklich für sie zählt, ich denke nicht, dass das irgendwo gut endet.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Aber net-net, wir müssen nach dem Problem hier nachgehen. Und der Problem ist, dass die höheren Bildungskosten überfließen.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
I know someone who got a job at a prestigious bulge bracket investment bank and literally showed up the first day and they said, we need to speak to him. So we have to rescind the offer. We did a credit check and have terrible credit and we can't have you selling or structuring securities when you can't, you know, when you have a low credit score.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Also, wenn du wirklich Beweise willst, dass wir deine Generation verdammt sind, ist eine der einzigen Formen von Schulden, die nicht in Bankruptie ausgleichbar ist, Studentenlohn-Geduld. Also, wenn ich Bankruptie erkläre, kann ich aus fast jedem Teil der Schulden kommen. Jetzt, ich muss alle meine Aspekte geben. Eigentlich ist das nicht wahr.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Wenn ich ein Haus in Florida besitze, kann ich es zu Hause halten und ich kann es zu meinem Haus halten, auch wenn ich Bankruptie erkläre und alle meine Schulden klären. Aber außer Studentenbett. Also wenn man sich über die eine Person denkt, die, wenn sie schwierige Zeiten erlebt hat, einen Do-over-Button verdient, dann sollten es junge Leute in Studentenbett sein.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Es ist eine sehr erschreckende Situation, aber ich glaube auch, dass es die Bedürfnisse für, was ich in der Hochschule nenne, Adulting-Klassen. Ich glaube, dass es eine Klasse geben sollte, die einfach die Basis ist. Was bedeutet die Interestrate auf meinem Kreditkarten? Basic adulting. What is required to get an apartment?
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
When you want to rent an apartment, what do you need to do and possess and have? And what's a general ratio for how much you should be spending?
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Es gibt kein Ja oder Nein. Es ist nur eine Funktion von Nuancen. Das ist das eine. Viele davon kommen aus der Universität, in der du dich befindest. Wenn du in MIT kommst und du bist ausgeschlossen und fühlst, dass du drei oder vier Jahre bei MIT bleiben kannst, dann ist es nicht wichtig, dass du ein Quartier von einem Millionen Dollar bezahlen musst. Es ist wert.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Für den Rest deines Lebens wirst du ernst genommen. Für den Rest deines Lebens haben die Leute die Gelegenheit, dich zu hiren. And the scary thing and the thing that's good in some ways and bad in others is your school, Princeton, if you have any economic hardship, they have so much money, they'll give you financial aid.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
So what happens is really good kids, because of this bullshit rejectionist exclusivity LVMH strategy that every elite university has adopted such that they can raise tuition faster than inflation and the faculty and the alumni feel good about that. Ja, genau. So my strategy with these kids is always, I need you to get into more than one school.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And once you get into the school, the university, all of a sudden it goes from there, a seller to a buyer in the sense that they really want you once you get in, because they have something called the yield. And the ranking is largely determined by a variety of factors, including what percentage of people who are admitted actually end up going.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
So, ideally what you want to do is to get admitted to more than one university, an ideally competitive university. So, for example, if you get, I don't know if that's the way any longer, but it used to be, if you got admitted to both Duke and UVA, and UVA saw you got into Duke, UVA would give you a full ride if you went to UVA. Because they were direct competitors with Duke.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
So the key is, you need to be a consumer. You need to get into more than one university and then start calling them and saying... You know, finances are a struggle for me. What do you offer in terms of financial aid? I'm into several universities, including your closest competitor, this university. What can you offer me? But students don't take a consumer.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
They're much more likely to negotiate on a hotel room or shop every store in the world. But once they get into the university, they kind of sit back and just take their price takers. They shouldn't be.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Als ich dein Alter war, lieben wir unerwartete junge Leute, richtig? Ich meine, denk dran, ich habe Pellegrins. I had access to a world-class university that had a 74% admissions rate.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And once I got there, my tuition every year was $1,300 and I could work my ass off over the summer and have part-time jobs and show up the next year despite the fact I wasn't getting any financial assistance from my parents.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And that for me started an upward spiral of prosperity where I got to engage in the economy, I got to find a mate, I got to have children, I got to build a business and all of that
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
reverse engineers to america used to love young unremarkable people and now it no longer does now it feels america is about trying to identify the children of rich kids and a freakishly remarkable one percenters and try and turn them into billionaires and higher ed is the tip of that spear in terms of losing the script we've become hedge funds that offer classes at the elite side and the mid tier are basically terrible value for kids that
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
puts a lot of them into debt that they can't discharge and starts them with this anchor around their neck. And what a shocker, we have the most obese, anxious and depressed generation in history. So that question around whether college is worth it, it's a nuanced conversation. What is an easy question to answer is, are we fucking young people? That's an easy one, 100%.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Well, I made it. I think by the end of 27, Kuiper is, it'll be hard to suss out because it'll be in a larger Amazon umbrella, but that Kuiper will be worth more than Starlink and will have greater penetration in the United States as it'll be stitched into the Amazon Prime++ program. They should change the name first. Kuiper is not a very good name.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
It kind of sounds like the AI villain in a Bond film, Kuiper. What does Kuiper say?
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Ich liebe nicht GDP. Und auch GDP ist ein bisschen ein Lagerindikator. Und ich denke, dass die Trump-Administration rechtlich sagen kann, dass es mehr um die ökonomischen Policien von Biden ist, als es um uns ist. Und du... Das ist der richtige Ansatz. Aber warum hatten wir einen Aufstieg in den Importen? Weil die Leute sich über die Wirtschaft oder speziell diese Tarife unsicher fühlen.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And when I look at the uncertainty index, which has hit a new high since like the 80s, and consumer confidence, which has hit a new low since COVID, what it largely portends is that we're going to see a decline in GDP in the next quarter. I believe you're going to see a dramatic decrease in inventory in stores. If you just look at Diese unglaublichen Heatmaps von Schiffslänen.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Es gibt all diese Schiffe im Hongkonger Hafen, die nur warten, bis sie verpackt sind und nicht verpackt sind. Und dann der Port Los Angeles, der, glaube ich, der größte Port in der westlichen Hemisphäre ist. Es wird sehr wenig Offloading vorgenommen. So at some point, and I don't know if the lag is two weeks or two months, you're just going to see an absence of inventory in stores.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And consumers have gotten to the point where if they can't get what they want, they're so used to such a robust supply chain, they're going to think, A, if they're not feeling good about the consumer economy, they don't want to as aggressively buy that new home gym or whatever, and B... If the products they want are available, they use that as an excuse just not to buy.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
So I think winter is coming. And that is, I would imagine the next quarter there's going to be, you know, they'll find another reason to blame Hunter Biden or something. But this is... They get a pass on this one, right?
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
But the fact that there's, again, this massive surge in imports is because our economy is making asymmetric, irrational decisions based on an unpredictable administration and unpredictable economic policy.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Heute ist der Nummer 16,6 Billionen Dollar. Das ist das Rekordniveau, das die amerikanischen Konsumenten zu Skammern und Cyberkriminalitäten lasten. Ed, ich habe nur keine Lüge darüber, aber ich habe viele junge Männer gehört, die diesen Podcast hören. Also habe ich die ultimative Pick-up-Line. Bist du bereit, Ed?
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
They likely will be hurt more than us in the short term. But their tolerance for pain is much greater than ours. And I think over the medium and the long term, China is actually a winner because I think they're going to be more aggressive about establishing relationships with new partners that will be more apt or less reticent to engage in business with them.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And also you're already seeing that basically we're thrusting the EU into the arms of China and vice versa. Chinese e-commerce exports to the US fell by 65% last month, but exports to Europe rose by 28%. And also what we forget is that Europe is actually a bigger trading partner. So that's 28% on a bigger number.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
So the big winner in the short term is the EU, because you got to think that a lot of these factories want to keep their assembly lines humming. And so they're going to call a lot of potential customers in Europe and say, hey, I can get you a great deal on this widget. I mean, this is effectively the way I would describe it.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
America is not dead, but it's the equivalent of a death of the kind of existing post-World War II world order as led by the United States. And that is these traditional trading alliances that were built up over the last 80 years of trust, rule of law, intellectual property, It feels like that is dead.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Du gehst zu jemandem, den du enttäuscht bist, und sagst, kannst du mir ein Bild nehmen? Everyone always says yes, right? No one ever says no to that. And then you say, can you turn on the mirror function and take a picture of the two of us? And she'll say, why? And you say, because someday I'm going to show it to our kids. Boom!
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And what we have is the largest yard sale from an estate sale from this rich old lady down the street who died. And everyone's showing up and trying to figure out how do they get their piece of a $25 trillion economy. I think our economy is going to shrink.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And a lot of other nations are going to try and figure out how they fill that void by either trade relationships with each other, grabbing market share from U.S. companies that will no longer have the same most favored nation status that they enjoy with their international partners.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
And you're going to see a lot, in my opinion, you're going to see a lot of small, medium-sized businesses go out of business in the U.S. And that... That economic activity will be picked up by other people when the global economy fills in those holes, if you will. So it's interesting to try and think about who are the winners in the short, the medium and the long term.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Biggest loser in the long run, hands down the US, both short, medium and long, I think. But I think the EU is actually going to be a big winner here, because I got to think... China zeigt sich auf und sagt, hey, die Verkaufszeit des Jahrhunderts liegt gerade auf chinesischen Einkommen.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
I think Americans are about to eat a very cold lunch in terms of Ja, genau. When we got like employee 30, we opened an office in London. And then when we got to employees 60, we started pitching clients in China. And when you go over there as an American company, you're pretty well received.
Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
und du verstehst die Kulturen und es ist einfach, Payments zu machen und die Kontrakte, die Geschäftskontrakte waren nicht so schwierig. Ich denke, das wird sich alles ändern.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
It's not, because every psychiatrist and psychologist, and Daniel Kahneman specifically, has shown that above a certain amount of money, you lose no happiness. Any more money doesn't make you any happier, so having a higher tax rate doesn't make you any less happy. And also, these tax rates are lower than they were in the 50s, 60s, 70s, and even in the 80s at those income levels.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
So I think tax rates could actually come down if you forced everyone to pay those tax rates. And that is you could lower the top tax rates on people if everyone paid them. You could lower corporate tax rates if everyone paid that rate.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Met this woman, really interesting woman, nice. I was very attracted to her. And I had this big deck. I lived at one Greenwich, and I had basically this like 700-foot apartment with a 3,000-square-foot deck, see above, single and desperate. And I used to have parties and people, and I met this woman, super hot, seemed super cool. Yeah. Asked her out. Kept asking her out.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Oh, Elliot, they're smart people. And Jessica, who runs her activist group, is a really smart guy. And marketing is important, but be clear, this is all marketing. I'm not sure. I think BP was actually, so I ran a brand strategy firm called Profit. And I think BP was a client. And the running joke around the office was beyond petroleum.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
And they'd like, you know, the ad team would hire an Asian dude, put him in a jacket and run a commercial talking about how algae is going to fuel the future automobile.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
They never spent a lot of money. I think right now, what is the research you guys did? That basically BP is allocating somewhere between three and 5% of their total capex renewables. That's just not a lot. They were never not in oil and gas. And this is basically saying, OK, get rid of all of it. Stop pretending. Stop running the ads beyond petroleum. Just say petroleum. It's here.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Yeah, there's no substance here. This is them pretending for two decades, deciding that the big sunflower beyond petroleum would make them seem warm and cuddly as they were belching more carbon into the air than anyone but maybe Exxon and Chevron, because there is nothing, there is nothing like the arbitrage you get from fossil fuels in terms of the ability to do work, move earth,
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
And finally, like, I'm getting nothing back here. And she's like, I have something I think you're going to like. And she showed up and said, I'm going to handle everything. And we went to this place in, I think it was the West Village or so, go underground. Yeah. It's like 300 bucks for the dude and nothing for the woman. I'm like, oh, that's going to be interesting.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
create different substances based on this incredibly cheap supply where you get a barrel, an absolute barrel of this shit that can be made into almost anything or provide energy to make almost anything. And the barrel costs 70 bucks. I mean, it's just so cheap. And these guys, these companies are just cash juggernauts. And basically, Elliot said, stop the bullshit. Stop the virtue signaling.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Stop the posturing. You're a petroleum company. You always have been.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
We saw a lot of those energy stocks crash. with DeepSeek when all of a sudden people thought, oh, we might not need as much energy. And what you're saying is that was a bit of a headache. In fact, we're still going to need a massive amount of energy. And I met with a guy who's an energy guy and he said, you got nuclear wrong.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
And they give you a towel, and she changed into a towel. And anyway, she ended up making out and fooling around with a woman.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
He said, and Mia kind of confirmed this in her notes, that the lag to bring energy capacity, nuclear online is five, 10 years out at a minimum. And that the real play is liquid natural gas, LNG. And that you want to be looking at that space. And it'll be very interesting to see. There's the side note that really fascinated me.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I don't know if you saw, but the number one producer of wind power now is Texas. And we should do a deeper dive at some point on the economics of wind power because it's politically, quote unquote, incorrect or politically sober, whatever the term you want to use is, Texas is. The economics of wind have made it such that it is now in many ways a better bet than these dirty fossil fuels.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
That was my pick. New York story. NYU professor, would you let your kid take class with me?
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube by the way I absolutely love Vivian too I think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Oh, I was so excited. I think I still probably text her, saying if she'll give me another shot at trapeze.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
You had it. You summarized it perfectly, Ed, and that is the market is so used to these companies blowing away expectations that when they don't beat expectations, they don't meet expectations. And NVIDIA beat expectations on the top and bottom line, and I think the stock's off today. I mean, it's not off hugely, but you summarized it perfect.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Expectations have become such that you're expected to massively blow away expectations. But I didn't take a ton away from this. Do you have any thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Actually, also, my other New York joke. You know, New York is just full of rats. I made actually friends with this rat, and this ridiculously hot woman walked by, and I'm like, did you see the ass on that woman? He said, well, actually, I'm a tit rat myself.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
It's great IR, it's great investor relations to turn a bug into a feature, right? That, A, confronting it head on. Let's talk about DeepSeek, and this is why DeepSeek is... It's good for us. It's a very well-run company. He's an outstanding CEO. I think Josh Brown said that it's up 100x, and I guess Josh has owned it for 10 years?
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I have no idea, but... I know I met Josh through his partner, Barry Ritholtz, who's also a very smart guy. And they're trying to be sort of a hybrid between a hedge fund and their business model and Vanguard. And that is every time their AUM goes up, they charge less money, but they're very smart. They're not stock pickers.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Well, I guess they're stock pickers to a certain extent, but they're very much. They're sober about it. Yeah. They're one of the few funds I've ever thought investing in and even paying fees because they're just very sober kind of level-headed guys and they give it kind of, give it to you straight. And oh yeah, those guys are like fun to go out and eat beef and drink bourbon with.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
They're such like Long Island guys. Like, I don't even like basketball.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Look, it's an incredible company. I'm pissed off I never owned it. I have a difficult time seeing where it goes from here based on how just expensive it has become.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Ah, that's why you come here.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
You know what would be a total gangster move is if Elliot convinced NVIDIA to become a petroleum company. That'd be a test.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
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Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I can't help it. I'm a broken clock here. Tesla is imploding. I think the stock is below $200 in the next six months.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I hate this motherfucker. I really, I don't know if you've sensed that.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Yeah. I have no emotional distance here. I'm changing my prediction. I think this thing goes below 150. Oh, keep it. Keep the original. I can't help it. It's at a P of 180, and its sales are off 75% in Germany. And across Europe, they're off dramatically. I think the car line is really stale. To be fair, the stock is still up 50% over the last 12 months, right? It had a huge run up.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
And the market, you could also steel man and be a weak steel man and be more like an iron man or a hay man. It's clear his activities have really hurt him in Europe and in California, but probably the market was looking for an excuse to take this stock down.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I think what will be the real interesting test here in terms of the association or affiliation of an individual's brand and their company is if Starlink starts to have contracts canceled. What do you make of this, Ed?
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I think that moment happened 48 hours ago. I think it was Bill Burr. He's probably my favorite comedian. I think the guy's just a genius and he's fearless. And he's been known for being just incredibly politically incorrect. And he's a favorite... of what I'll call sort of the intelligent manosphere, and that is he just mocks the shit out of Democrats and political correctness.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
And, you know, basically every viewer of MSNBC was grabbing their pearls every time they watch a Bill Burr clip. And he was just totally unafraid to be totally politically incorrect. And he went on a rant, and we should play that. We'll find the clip now.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I think the worm has turned against this guy. I think that moment you're describing happened. 48 hours ago. I still think people think he's invincible. There's no such thing.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Today's number, $49 million. That's how much New York City's congestion pricing tolls brought in during the program's first month. This is an actual true story, Ed. When I first moved to New York, my first date was with a woman named Martha who took me to, no joke, a sex club. And one of us had sex, and it wasn't me, Ed. That's a true story. That's not a true story. No, it's a true story.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Yeah, but you got it right. They paid a lot of taxes. If he wants to take a victory lap for it and make a point, good for him. And he has said for a long time, there's no reason I should pay a lower tax rate than my assistant. But his obligation to his shareholders, no one's going to disarm unilaterally. I believe tax rates should go up, but I engage in tax avoidance.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I'm constantly thinking about strategies to minimize my tax bill. And there's a ton of ways you can do it legally when you're rich. And what we've seen is the tax code go from something like 400 pages to 7,000. And those incremental 6,600 pages are there basically to fuck people of your generation and transfer more wealth to my generation and to corporations. And
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Cruise lines have weaponized various loopholes. They pay less than 2% for all the tax rates. General Motors in 2023 paid a tax rate of 5%. T-Mobile, which I would think was a very profitable company, pays an effective tax rate of 0.4%. Every company is going to do the best they can to pay as little as they can. That's their job. We're not doing our job.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
And that is there have been so many loopholes stuffed into the tax code. And what the misdirect is people think it's about tax rates. It's not. It's about the tax code. And I believe that as a percentage of GDP taxes or corporations are paying the lowest taxes since like 1938. And at some point, you got to fund the government. And there's two things to do.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
There's either deficits, right, or you got to charge more in different types of consumption taxes. And I've said this for a long time. There's some mythology in the tax code. The bottom half pays almost no federal income tax. They pay a lot of consumption and sales tax, but almost no federal income tax.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
The people who get most screwed in our tax system are actually most of the people who work at Prop G Media. And that is you guys make very good livings, but it's all current income and you live in a high tax domain, New York City. So even as young as you are, you make exceptionally good livings for people your age, even though you may not feel that way.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
You're probably paying 30 to 40 percent tax rates at this point. That's a lot of money for a young person.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
But once you make the jump to light speed and get really rich, you can leverage all these different loopholes, whether it's 1031 exchanges where you can take real estate and roll it into a new investment, a new real estate investment without incurring a capital gain, triggering a capital gain.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Even thinking of yourself as a stock, you produce, I have stocks that produce, say, 100 grand a year in dividends or growth. That gets to grow, not the dividends, but the growth grows tax deferred. Whereas if you're an individual making $100,000, you lose 20% of it every year at least.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
So the tax code has basically said, all right, the bottom 99, we're going to basically fund the government with the kind of 50 to 99th percentile. And then once you get above the 99th, your tax rates plummet. And the reason why America puts up with it is that we're so optimistic that people believe at some point they're going to be in the 0.1%.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
But corporations, I mean, we just have two choices here. We either need to cut spending and raise taxes or have massive deficits, which are And it's important that we communicate this to people, nothing but taxes on you and Claire and the rest of the young people of this organization, just kind of laying in wait. So I find the whole – I think taxes are a really important conversation.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
The club was called Trapeze.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I would like to see the best solution would be an AMT, an alternative minimum tax on corporations and the rich. And that is if you make over, say, $10 million, we want you to pay – A 50% AMT. Whatever loopholes you can come up with, great, but you're paying at least 50%. You know, well, that's a lot, Scott.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
In every company, there's a whole system of decision makers, challenges, and strategies, shaping the future of business at every level. That's why we're running a special three-part Decoder Thursday series, looking at how some of the biggest companies in the world are adapting, innovating, and rethinking their playbooks.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
And my understanding is they are cutting their beverage and food options by 30%. That means... Every three items, one of them is going away. I think that's a baller move, and this is what's going to happen. In the short run, that'll probably hurt, take a hit to revenues. It's complicated, new signage costs, new training.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
But over the long term, or the medium and long term, I would argue, it sends a stronger signal about what we do and what we don't do. And the bottom line is, at the end of the day, Starbucks problems are pretty basic. They were charging too much and delivering too little. And then I go into La Colombe and I'm like, hello, I'm with rich Corinthian leather.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I feel like I'm a total Euro trash, which I like. And it's simple, great coffee, and I like the crowd in there. And it just feels a little less, there aren't as many like, you know, napkins and shit on the ground, right? Yeah, absolutely.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I found out I have to be in Orlando for a speaking gig, and at first I was bummed, and now I'm kind of sick of my kids, so I'm sort of excited. So I'm headed to Orlando on Monday, and then I go up to New York for four days. I'm excited about that. I'm going to do our... Our team strategy meeting where you're all going to present your plan.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
So far, it's been worth it. And I don't, I have no problems with out-of-control CEO compensation. I just think that should be taxed at 70% once you get above kind of 10 million, but that's a... Another podcast.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Oh, essentially what they're doing is they're taking money The capital they were spending on non-customers and pouring it back into customers.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Yeah, let's move on to T-Mobile.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Starlink is amazing. I heard United is doing a deal with Starlink. I would fly one airline over the other for Starlink. It's incredible. And I had one of those moments, you know, you have one of those technology moments, the first time you bought something on your phone or the first time you use Google Maps, you're like, Jesus Christ, this is incredible. Yeah, the first time I saw porn. Wow, Ed.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
And I'm going to say, you make too much money and you're not growing revenues fast enough. Just so you know, that's the feedback you're going to get. I'm excited. What about you? What are you up to?
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
And nothing will ever be the same. Nothing will ever be the same. By the way, Ed, no one can make sweet, sweet love to me like me. All right, where were we? Where were we? Oh yeah, T-Mobile, AT&T, differentiation for telcos. So I can't imagine the pounds of flesh That T-Mobile was able to – that must have been so fun.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Whoever was the Starlink representative negotiating these deals, they sat down with Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile and said, okay, let's be honest. This is going to be ugly. Who wants it? And we're going to give one of you a two- or three-year exclusive, which is going to give you tangible differentiation, which is nearly impossible.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
in your category, which will add billions, if not tens of billions of dollars in shareholder value, and we want it all, bitches. So them making these projections is saying to the market, we think this is going to be a tangible point of differentiation. What'll be interesting is when in their earnings or if they have to disclose the terms of this deal, because I bet- Yeah, T-Mobile's a winner here.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
The biggest winner, I bet, is Starlink because- Yeah, they're projected to hit
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
You're close with your sister, aren't you?
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Hey, it's Scott Galloway. In today's marketing landscape, if you're not evolving, you're getting left behind. In some ways, it's easier than ever to reach your customers, but cutting through the noise has never been harder. So we're going to talk about it on a special PropG Office Hour series.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
We'll be answering questions from C-suite execs and business leaders about how to market efficiently and effectively in today's chaotic world. So tune into PropG Office Hour special series brought to you by Adobe Express. You can find it on the PropG feed wherever you get your podcasts.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
We're asking enterprise leaders about some of the toughest questions they're facing today, revealing the tensions, risks, and breakthroughs happening behind closed doors. Check out Decoder, wherever you get your podcasts. This special series from The Verge is presented by Adobe Express.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Addiction is a great business, and they're executing well against it. They've taken technology, addiction, network effects, monopoly. I mean, two-thirds of social media globally is on Meta. Really well-run company. I'm addicted to Instagram. I love it. I think it's fantastic. I can't stand Mark Zuckerberg, and I'm not getting off Instagram. They continue to perform really well.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I wonder if their hardware appears to be on a roll right now. They're sold out across the Utes, the number one product in 60% of Ray-Ban stores, which obviously isn't a big revenue item, but they might finally have their own hardware point of distribution so they don't have to kiss Sundar Pichai or Tim Cook's ass.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I tried them about a year and a half ago. My son, I was speaking to my son, and he kept saying, Meta, take a photo. I'm like, what are you doing? He's like, I got these Ray-Ban glasses. And they're actually, I mean, this was a year, year and a half ago, and I thought they were pretty good. So headsets make no sense, but smart glasses, I think there's a future for.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
And I think that the Zuck is probably going to get some spillover effect from the massive investment he's made in these headsets. But They have capital. They've increased their CapEx 60% to 65 billion around technical talent and AI infrastructure. Meta AI is used by more people than any other AI assistant with over 700 million monthly active users.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
It's integrated into Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I actually don't. I agree with that. I mean, I don't mind it when you're disagreeing with me, despite the fact you hate the homeless. Yeah. But what they have is distribution and control of the consumer. They do own the rails in a way that ChatGPT doesn't, right? Totally. And their ability—I mean, we were talking about those moments, those technology moments. I've had some chilling moments.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
where I'm going to see a Paris Saint-Germain game and I have a real pop-up and it's on hotels in Paris. I'm like, how the fuck did they... I mean, it's incredible the targeting they could use. And it goes to the notion that Meta, more than I think almost any organization, maybe with the exception of Uber, has shown that if you can provide utility, you can violate everyone's privacy.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
That for all the bullshit and all the... Whining in Brussels and D.C., young people have said, violate my privacy just as long as there's a coupon or I can see where my QX60 is if it's coming around the block. Arguably, Mark Zuckerberg right now is the most talented person.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I mean, he's one of the three or four most talented business people in the world, if you just look at it from a shareholder perspective. They made huge investments. They're running away with it. And they're monetizing the fact that... I said that the core Facebook platform and now Instagram is the most successful thing in history. Communism doesn't have this many people.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Capitalism doesn't have this many people. Democracy... There's no product. The Kardashians, nothing is as successful as Instagram right now as a product, coupled with the Facebook core platform and then WhatsApp. These are the most successful things in history, as far as I can tell. Someone might say, well, no, actually, it's Google search. And he has been outstanding.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
They have been outstanding at monetizing it. Anyways, couldn't happen to a more mendacious fuck group of people. But yeah, they're doing outstanding.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Well, what was my stock pick at 2020? Now I'm really patting myself on the back. I'm going to elevate your praise on me. What stock did I say was going to be the biggest IPO at 2024, Ed? Reddit, yeah. By the way? went public five or six months ago. It's up six-fold since its IPO.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I am so angry. I invested. I'm so angry I didn't back up the truck. Fourth or fifth most trafficked site in America, and it went public at a $5 billion market cap. And every other company on that list trades at somewhere between $800 billion and $3 trillion. Anyways, thank you, thank you, thank you. I'd like to thank my agent. Exactly.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Well, you're awkward to begin with, but I think you'll be probably a little bit less awkward with children.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I don't know. I think you just make fart jokes and threaten to hit them if they don't behave. That's my approach to children. But no dick jokes? You can get on the wrong list. The next time you move, you have to go next door and tell them you've moved in next door, which is a real inconvenience. It's a real bummer. All right. Well, should we start with our weekly review of Market Vitals?
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I don't know. I think the market is, you know, this is a company that's now, I think it's the second or third most valuable company in the world. But, you know, the expectations, what you said a while ago, that if you don't blow away expectations, everyone's disappointed. Azure, all right, it grew 31%, not 33%. That's still incredible. It's also in this kind of arms race.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Its CapEx totaled $23 billion for the quarter. That's almost double what it did last year. And Nadella has said he's signaling a measured approach to capital allocation. You don't want to buy too much of anything at one time. You want to have the right ratio of modernization and demand.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Yeah. So, shockingly, I've been looking at this. I've looked at the stock chart, and over the last year, it's basically flat, which I find kind of interesting. And Over the last five years, it's up three and a half fold, but year to date, it's flat. So it hasn't registered the same. Is that fair? It's gone flat for kind of the last year, but I don't know if I have a lot of insight here.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Great company. Good management. Based in Seattle.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Let's do it, my brother. Let's do it, Uncle Ed.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
So there's no way they were going to in any way acknowledge DeepSeek as a threat.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Because that would have just taken... That was like that company that said OpenAI, or I think it was Chegg, is having an impact on our stock. Instead, Mark Zuckerberg, for example, said, this is validation of our open source strategy, right? And, you know, Satya said it was fine to just almost swat it away like a gnat. He just wasn't worried about it.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
They will remain steadfast in their commitment to the spending until they're not. And that is, it's like when you're contacted by the press regarding a CEO and a startling company, you're 100% behind them until you put out the press release saying we just fired him or her. And they're going to say that, you know, already open AI is on a full court press to try and say, move along, no big deal.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
They used chat GPT and this is bullshit and it's not a threat to us. They're already trying to create, they're like a defense attorney at a murder trial trying to create muck and confusion about these results that supposedly. I also worry, I was thinking Mark Andreessen immediately came out and said, this is amazing. Is it because Mark Andreessen hates AI? Or he doesn't like OpenAI.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
This shit is just so thick.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
So there's a lesson here, and that is, all right, if you're a consultant or a thought leader or a professor, you make your business in communications, especially around intellectual property or thought leadership. This is how you go about it. You ingest a tremendous amount of information. It is impossible to digest all of it.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
What you do is you ingest a lot of information such that you find something that you think is real insight. And then you try and wrestle with it, really understand it, look at it through different prisms, and be able to talk about it and incorporate it into your rap.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
As a consultant, all I was basically doing was finding other people's great ideas, finding what I thought were the best and most insightful ideas, And then repackaging them as my own or my firm's own. And that's not entirely true. We would reference and footnote who it was. I had one of those moments with our guest, Robert Armstrong.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
And that is, it just dawned on me that if you look at the airline industry, what he said, it dawned on him. Yeah, absolutely. I was thinking about, I was on the board of Gateway Computer. Think about how much PCs changed the world. And we were the second largest PC manufacturer in the world. Shouldn't we have been worth $100 or $200 billion? But we weren't.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
It was a shitty business because anybody, including two kids in their dorm at the University of Texas in Austin, could pull together a computer. And Ted started assembling computers in his barn in South Dakota, which meant that China could assemble them for no money down.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
And the company that made some money was the brain, Intel, but basically PCs, as revolutionary as they were, again, all the capture, all the surplus value was captured by consumers. And Robert's notion that this might in fact be, AI might in fact be one of those industries was,
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
where everybody becomes more productive, everyone's life gets better, it's remarkable, but you don't have this concentration of capture across a small number of companies. That has just blown me away. I think that that is such an interesting insight that this might be the airline or the PC business where it changes everything or it changes a lot,
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
but the spoils aren't going to be captured by a small number of companies. It won't be an easy place to invest or make money because why wouldn't you have invested everything in Pan Am back in the 70s? Oh my God, you can get on a 747 and get to London. And this is amazing. This is incredible. And guess what? All those companies... Pan Am, TWA, PSA, Air California, Eastern Airlines.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I mean, every airline I flew as a young man. Braniff, Laker Airlines. I mean, the list goes on and on and on.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I wonder when the market's going to realize this is a giant jazz hands. I think this guy is on his ninth life in terms of coming up with reasons why this company should be valued like a software company when it's not a mobile company. Its share of the EV market fell from 55% to 49%. Its competitors are gaining ground.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
BYD overtook Tesla in global EV production, marking the end of their kind of three-year reign as the EV leader. It's basically flat to down. If you look at that, I think it was about two and a quarter billion dollars in profits.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
A quarter of those profits come from the sale of, I think, carbon credits to other automobile companies, which are supposedly going to go away under the Trump administration. So you're looking likely over the next 24 months to decline in profits. Which were already declining. Margins are already compressing and they're bringing down prices already. Still, even with all this.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
It's an amazing company and deserves a premium to the rest of the auto market. The question is, does it deserve this premium? The price to sales on Tesla right now or the market cap to sales is 14%. versus Ford at 0.29, General Motors at 0.35, Honda at 0.42, and Toyota, arguably the best-run automobile company in the world who's growing and correctly doubled down on hybrids.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Toyota trades at, dun-dun-dun, wait for it, a price-to-sales ratio of 1 versus Tesla at 14. Granted, they have some software, they have some interesting power products. I mean... It continues to be, oh, wait, it's a meme stock. You're investing in me, Elon Musk. Okay, he's managed to keep it elevated. Okay, we're beneficiaries of the new kleptocracy.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
We'll figure out a way to get regulatory capture because I spent a quarter of a billion dollars and some people would say I'm the reason that Trump is in office. All right, the market says this is a kleptocracy. Boom, we'll bid your stocks up. This thing is so crazily overvalued. that I just, and I always have to disclose, I've been saying this for a long time and I've been wrong.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
But at some point, gravity has to hit this thing.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I do think it's a great car. I think the Cybertruck is basically a midlife crisis in stainless steel. I think that thing makes no fucking sense. I think that's just so stupid. The thing that's always shocked me as somebody who thinks they understand brands is You know, basically Tesla is turning into a car for crypto brothers with better credit scores.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
And so he's looking for more jazz hands. And also Waymo. I was in a Waymo in LA about four months ago. I think they have a big head start on them. So I don't. Oh, yeah. They've launched. They're giving rise.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Yeah, it's here. It was really, really impressive. Yeah. So at some point, we'll be right here. At some point, this thing gets cut dramatically.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Usually special charges or special revenue recognition, usually the market discounts that. In this case, it just makes no sense. And this is not financial advice because the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid. And I thought this thing was overvalued at $50 a share. Now it's at $400. So we'll see.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I think we do call balls and strikes. Hail Elon. Hail Elon. When I walked into, I don't know if it's his kind of right-wing proclivities have impacted the dealer network, but I went in to their retail store in Boca Raton and I said, what colors does the Model Y come in? And they said, Viva Lasso questions.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I'm just fascinated with Robert Armstrong's notion of these industries that the capture here may be captured by 7 billion humans as opposed to a small number of companies. And it got me thinking, if all of a sudden you can have 80% of chat GPT for 10 or 20 or even 50% of the price. That was Old Navy's strategy.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
My first consulting engagement out of business school in 1992 was they said, what are the demographic gaps out there? And we did this for the gap. And we came back and said, single mothers, they're a huge population and they want their kids to feel good about themselves, but they can't afford the gap.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Today's number 1.5. That's the percentage of global stocks the Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund owns, making it the world's largest single investor. Norway, where the dating scene is a sauna and a hike, and then you jump into a freezing river, and if you survive, you get a second date. Not really a joke, Ed, just sort of an observation.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
And so the basic premise of Old Navy, we came up with a new brand, was 80% of the gap for 50% of the price. And so we were part of the strategy to launch Old Navy. And Old Navy was the fastest zero-to-billion retailer in history. And generally speaking, this 80% of the value for 50% of the price is an incredible strategy. It's the strategy of Southwest.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Southwest said, we can be 80% of American, Delta, or United together. for 50% of the price.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
And I'm wondering if the old Navy of quote-unquote AI has come in, and where I think it impacts, I was trying to look for winners here, is that I'm trying to do a scan of what companies had put aside $100, $200, or $500 million, say a pharmaceutical company said, we need to expedite drug discovery in this great era of AI.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
So we're going to have to put aside two, three, $500 million to build our own thick layer on top of chat GPT or pay them a shit ton of money or Airbnb or Expedia, which are probably making huge investments and working with open AI and guaranteeing them a ton of money for enterprise-wide access to their LLM. Did their costs of incorporating AI just reduce dramatically?
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
are we gonna see a bunch of companies that are doing really well say, oh, and I've got good news, we're growing, and I've got great news, and that is we're gonna get all of the great taste of AI without the calories, specifically the cost.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
And that reserve or our CapEx planning of 100 or 500 million over the next three years on AI, it's been reduced by 90%, and that's all gonna flow to the bottom line. So my prediction is there's gonna be a new wave
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
of i don't know you would even call them you know remora fish that are just going to get kind of get free pickings if you will because their capex just i wonder overnight if it just went down 50 70 80 percent which is going to juice their earnings over the next two or three years
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
So I think on a regular basis, you need to, it's probably a good idea to have some churn and to have some recalibration of a company. And especially, I think, with the federal government, where I would think sometimes because of deficit spending and more bureaucracy, I'll probably get a decent amount of emails disagreeing with me.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I think sometimes that federal employees aren't subject to the same regular reviews or standards that the private market imposes on the private sector. So I'm kind of down with the idea of occasionally looking at the federal government or state and local agencies and reviewing it or reviewing the size of it. Having said that, as a percentage of the population,
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Our federal employee base has actually been level or declined over the last 40 or 50 years. So it's not like it's swelled beyond something crazy, if you will. Now, it's not kind of the decision or what you do. It's how you do it. I do not like buyouts. And that is, I generally find that the people who take buyouts are your most talented people. Because who's going to take a buyout?
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Oh, I'm a really talented 30-year-old that has all sorts of options and they're going to pay me and I've been thinking about leaving because I have a lot of opportunities outside of the... you know, the DOJ or whatever it might be. Boom. Oh my gosh, I'm going to get eight months. Okay. Hey, Google. Hey, Salesforce. Hey, Akin Gump or whatever.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I'm in and I got an eight month bonus, signing bonus to come to you. So I find it's a self-defeating process buyouts. And that is, I believe in performance reviews, I would have put more pressure on them to say, to have a thoughtful way to say, okay, let's do assessments. Because there's probably some departments that should be staffed up. The IRS should probably hire more people.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
For every dollar you put into the IRS, you get 12 back. And there's other departments that should probably lose more than, you know, 5% or 10%. I find this is just lazy, and you end up losing kind of your best.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
When I was on the board of the New York Times, they did a lot of quote-unquote buyouts of different newsrooms. They owned a bunch of newspapers, and local and regional newspapers were just getting the shit kicked out of them. They just didn't have a place in the new economy, and so they would do buyouts.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
The way they would do it was they would go to what I call the kind of critical employees and say, FYI, we're letting you in on this. We're going to do a buyout, but we have plans for you and want you to stay. I think in any organization, it shouldn't be that hard to identify kind of critical leadership or people who are exceptional.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
And I think there's this hallmark version of an organization where everyone's great, and if anyone is not great, it's about the culture, and we just got to find them in the right role. I don't buy that. I've said for a while, and this is not, again, aspirational. You never say this in all hands.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I've kind of jokingly but half seriously said 10% of the employees add 120% of the value, and the other 90% are negative 20%. And you need to identify that 10%, especially as you scale an organization, and make sure that they're nailed to the ground. This is your equity stake. I'm overpaying you. You have no reason to ever leave. You're gonna do really well here.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
It's one thing to cut costs, but what you wanna do is you wanna improve the tensile strength and the effectiveness. It's almost like you could, I would argue, if you had a growth mindset, you'd say, I'm going to give the IRS more money, but I need them to increase tax revenues by X dollars.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Let's go Norwegian. Let's make some cabbage here. This episode is brought to you by Fundrise. We think we're Norway. We think we're rich and civilized. Meanwhile, we're arguing over transgender. Meanwhile, we're arguing over Chan. Anyways, never mind. Keep that in. I'm getting so fucking old. I literally think I'm having one of several million strokes that I've been experiencing.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I need the Department of Veteran Affairs to increase its customer service or its reviews, its satisfaction reviews among veterans by 5% a year for the next four years. And here's a bonus pool. And we'll keep hiring static. But we need you to be more productive. We need you to be better at what you do.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I think that says Elon Musk written all over it, that rather than offering a carrot as well, they're going at it with sort of a kind of a blunt instrument stick. So I don't think this is the right way to go about it.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
You get to my age, Ed, a stroke is kind of like, I don't know, it's like an erection when you're your age. It just kind of happens when you're least expecting it. Every morning. Don't brag. Don't rub it in my face. Literally. Literally don't rub it in my face. It all comes back to the penis. How are you, Scott? I'm doing pretty well.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
I think you're exactly right. I don't think Starbucks, I think Starbucks has an obligation to make money, treat its employees well, be good to its community, and then pay their fair share of taxes such that we can have a more systemic approach to homelessness.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
And I wonder if that same person is worried about the red lobster or Olive Garden and the fact they're not letting homeless people hang out. I saw the earnings and I thought, okay, Brian Nicole is the CEO. And this guy is pretty much Jesus Christ in my book because he spent the last six years at Chipotle. So one, he owes me a lot of money. And I have eaten at Chipotle twice.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
When I'm in New York, I'm going to eat there basically lunch. Mary Jean, my chief of staff, she knows what I like. And it starts with cha and it ends with potlay. I love it there. I think he did an amazing job. The stock was up 9x when he was there. Wow. So I think that the market just wants to interpret everything this guy does And love it.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Because when I looked at the actual numbers, you know, they were fine. But I think the market is looking for reasons to take the stock up under this guy's leadership. And in the last week, it's up 11 percent. So he's added 13. The company's increased its market cap by 13 billion dollars. And people have been saying he's already made 50 or 80 million bucks. That's cheap.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
They got a great deal on this guy. Because the market wants to love him and the market wants to say, oh, Jesus Christ is here and he's going to figure this out. The thing that stuck out to me, you did your homework here and your observation is more insightful and has a more interesting overlay around public policy.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
The thing I loved about it is it is impossible over time or very difficult to maintain the discipline to not add more menu items.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
Because you launch one, everyone goes into group thing, people like it, there's some evidence, and we all start saying, oh, it makes sense to have charged lemonades or to have banana bread or to have sandwiches or to have, you just start, and before you know it, what Steve Jobs said to the CEO of Nike when he was on the board there, he said, get rid of all the shit.
Prof G Markets
Meta & Microsoft Brush Off DeepSeek + Starbucks Stages a Comeback
You know, I think at some point Nike was like selling air fresheners in their stores. And he said, get rid of all this shit. And the hardest part about specialty retail, and at the end of the day, this is specialty retail, is not what you have, but what you don't have. And that is you have a very curated, tight selection of things that send a very strong signal about the voice.
SmartLess
SmartLess Presents ClueLess! 145 - Do Not Pass Go! (w/ Scotty Icenogle)
Yes, let's go. Let's go. Here we go.
SmartLess
SmartLess Presents ClueLess! 145 - Do Not Pass Go! (w/ Scotty Icenogle)
Okay, I'm good. Sean needs a minute. I need to go rub his shoulders.
SmartLess
SmartLess Presents ClueLess! 145 - Do Not Pass Go! (w/ Scotty Icenogle)
Yeah, exactly. You know, when you said love more than anything else, I thought you were going to say Pop-Tarts. Oh, Pop-Tarts.
SmartLess
SmartLess Presents ClueLess! 145 - Do Not Pass Go! (w/ Scotty Icenogle)
I can't wait. I can't wait for the Clueless album. Yeah.
SmartLess
SmartLess Presents ClueLess! 145 - Do Not Pass Go! (w/ Scotty Icenogle)
Oh, God. I saw that in 1928. I can't remember. Yeah.
SmartLess
SmartLess Presents ClueLess! 145 - Do Not Pass Go! (w/ Scotty Icenogle)
I'm in the haunted hallway section of our apartment, and I'm getting underestimated.
SmartLess
SmartLess Presents ClueLess! 145 - Do Not Pass Go! (w/ Scotty Icenogle)
Trinidad and Trinimom. No, I don't know.
SmartLess
SmartLess Presents ClueLess! 145 - Do Not Pass Go! (w/ Scotty Icenogle)
Ginkgo biloba, yes.
SmartLess
SmartLess Presents ClueLess! 145 - Do Not Pass Go! (w/ Scotty Icenogle)
Oh my God, I know it. Literally my brain... That's where the answer would be.
SmartLess
SmartLess Presents ClueLess! 145 - Do Not Pass Go! (w/ Scotty Icenogle)
It's not in your lungs. Or the frozen turkey section. Dr. Zhivago.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
By the way, you know what I do when I walk? I started walking in Central Park at dusk, you know? Okay. And what I do is I flex my lats and hold my head up really high because I'm scared somebody's, you know, to make myself appear bigger than I am.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Me too, me too. But your energy and your work ethic, and you're like, You do have so much energy, even talking to you now and with the kids and working and traveling and getting up at five in the morning and working 14 hours. Like, where do you get that drive? Where do you get the energy? Youth. It's youth. Methamphetamine.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Yeah, thanks. Sorry, JB. Yeah, you're not a karate chopper. Scotty probably a little bit more than me, yeah. I don't care about that as much.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
We are three guys talking today. Hey, hey. We, one of us, just might be gay.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
No, never invited. That's terrific. I invited you. You had to work, but I said you and Franny come over when Franny was in. Just the once.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
So Carrie, about the anxiety thing, because I have a little bit of that too. I'm much better at it, at dealing with it. But how do you deal with it? Okay. I mean, sometimes these guys know it comes up quite often. But how do you deal with it? Like, do you have tools that you good, your go-to tools?
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
I have one of those faces. But I love a good love story. So to the extent you feel comfortable, what changed from the, you know, when you try to open the beer for you?
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
No, but like what changed for you 10 years later that didn't spark for you the first time?
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
No, I'm distracted by shiny objects. Anything with frosting on it. Oh, my God.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Because I'm just going to my house to go sit down and eat and then go back to my house.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
But I loved that. And then when it was revealed that it was you in Star Wars, I mean, I was blown away. Like, that was the coolest thing.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Go. I mean, I was watching it, and even Scotty and I were like, who is this? I recognize your voice, but I couldn't, because we didn't see your face. I was like... Did you ever reveal yourself? I don't think you did.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
And then, I haven't seen Cocaine Bear and I really, really want to see it, but I heard it's great and it's been out for a while.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Kara, what are you excited about that's coming up other than the diplomat? What are you going to do the rest of the day?
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Yeah, I love that. By the way, I've never been to Brooklyn. I want to go check it out.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
She seems like one of those people that everybody wants to be friends with.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
I could never do it, but I get like... I don't like jeans or pants that are super tight, you know, that they're constricting.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
I love it. Awesome. And by the way, she drives her entire career. Like, she makes the decisions. Speaking of driving, by the way, I sent you guys a video when we were in New York of an Uber driver. Do you remember that?
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Remember that? And he was really kind and he was from China. And his real true, this is a true story. His real name is spelled B-A-I-Y-I. And I got in the car and I asked him how you pronounce it and I sent it to you. Wait, wait, spell it again. B-A-I-Y-I. Yeah. B-A-I-Y-I.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Everybody knows. Five, six, seven, eight. What are you talking about? We are three guys talking today. One of us is definitely gay. Hey, hey.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Yeah, yeah. Are you good at adjusting time, different time zones? Or are you like still on jet lag?
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Wait, Carrie, do you remember that one time? This is like decades ago. You know what I'm going to say. No. You were with an acting coach and you came out and I was going in and that's when we first met. This is like 25, 30 years ago, like a super long time ago. Which acting coach? I don't remember. But it was her house. It was this acting coach's house, and it was like a back.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
It was like a guest house in the back. It was that crazy? And you were coming out, and I was going in.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
It's funny you say that. No, because Scott and I had a long conversation about it. Can we have the short version? Yes. I mean...
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Yeah, for sure. Or I got a monologue. I need a funny monologue and a dramatic monologue. Right.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Yes, right. For the first time ever, I've been kind of getting used to it. I understand. Because I associate the city with work and work only. Right. And because I've had some extra downtime, I was like, oh, I finally get it. Like, I'd never walked through Central Park. I walk through Central Park all the time now. I was like, God, this place is huge and it's beautiful.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
I do. And it's a completely different thing as I'm sure you'd attest, Jason, because actually early on, I remember when I started doing Party Down, which was before Parks, and thank you very much.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
We've never done this bit before, and this will be the last time, but we're just going to go ahead and milk it till it's a stone, okay? They like to party down so much.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Right. So we're doing a scene early in that show and we were just starting. And up to that point, I had roles where, you know, where you're trying to like stuff everything into a couple of scenes. Yeah. And so... I was doing this scene where Lizzie Kaplan and I were meeting for the first time and talking.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
And I remember the director, Fred Savage, took me aside after a couple takes and was just like, hey, man, you know, you've got all season. You can chill. Pump it. Just easy, bro. Yeah. Like, we've got all this time and you can... you're gonna be kind of, the audience is gonna go through the story with you. So you can just pull back and just like, he was essentially just saying, fucking relax.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Don't worry about it. Did that crush your spirit? Was that shaming? Well, no, it was actually, it was like the best advice I'd, gotten, but also kind of looking back, yeah, maybe in the moment, probably question everything, but looking back, it's like the best piece of advice because, you know, he's 100% right.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
And I'm sure he learned that lesson when he was like nine years old or something, but it's true. You can just take your foot off the gas a little bit. Otherwise it's going to be exhausting to watch.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Well, my mom's maiden name was Quartararo. And- So I was like, well, that's too long. I wanted to, because part Sicilian, so I wanted to have like a Sicilian last name when I was in acting school to be more, you know, to sound like Al Pacino or Robert De Niro. Yeah, yeah, of course.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Exactly. See, this guy knows what I'm talking about. Okay, so wait. So I shortened it to Cordero. And I remember being in the library at the acting school I was at and like writing Al Pacino, Robert De Niro, Adam Cordero. And being like, oh yeah, that looks right. That's cool.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Yeah, that's right. And it was with a Q too, Cordero. Ooh, I like that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
He's incredible, right? I mean, I don't play golf or follow golf, but I've certainly like... Yeah, of course. It's come up, obviously. You could do a lot worse. Yeah. Okay. To have a new house. Have you ever met him? No, but we, I remember- You got to. Way, like 20 years ago, we did it. Cool it, Will. We did an interview side by side and something.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
But you guys, he is, like you guys play golf and he's still like a great golfer, right? He's very good. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Oh, God. I've got to link up with him and take a photo. Sean, there's another Sean Hayes, too? There's a cop named Sean Hayes somewhere.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
No, I'm sure it did. I don't, I mean, I think, you know, I think when I, I was so young, like five, I guess, when it happened. Yeah, me too, five years ago.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Yeah. I've seen that documentary, and I don't remember that. I'll have to go back. Just to keep an eye out.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Santa Cruz up in the Bay Area. Right on. It's where they shot Lost Boys. Oh, that's right. That's right. That's pretty much the end of that story. Jason, did you ever shoot anything? They used to shoot stuff in the 80s up in Santa Cruz.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Go ahead, Adam. Boy, I guess it probably was, you know, just seeing movies when you're a kid and you're like, I want to do that, like Temple of Doom and stuff.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Yeah. It kind of never did. And that's why, like it was, I know it's like in California, but it may as well be like on a different planet.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
country or something like we were so far removed from like show business it felt like going and being on tv or being in the movies felt like i'm gonna go to the moon or something just right they came and shot east of eden and santa like a mini series version of east of eden in our town and i remember they like put dirt out on the streets to make them look like dirt roads and had horses and
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
horse-drawn carriages and then the actors trailers and i was like seven and i remember seeing that and just being right alone away like holy fuck and then you went to the american academy of dramatic arts how old were you when you did that 18 was that high school it was after high school
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
A bunch of shit strapped to the roof of my 68 Rambler. And— boy, what a hard career to start, Jesus Christ. Just like coming in cold and not knowing a soul.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Well, strapping stuff to the roof is like not, you know, and when you're like 20, you're not going to do a good job strapping anything anywhere. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Was it commercials first? It was background work first. I just moved from school. I moved to Hollywood and just started like- going and trying to do whatever and didn't know anyone. And we did a lot of background work and then got like a guest spot on something and then got a little agent and then just sort of, you know.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
I mean, I think part of the self-delusion you need in order to survive, you think that every time you get anything, you're like, oh, fuck, okay, now. But it turned out that... I didn't really have a career until like 15 years later.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
What was the thing? It was like this period of time where it was like Park's stepbrothers party down, like this period of like three years where these things all happened. Oh, I see.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
A bit. It was just, I remember when that started happening and I remember getting some incoming phone calls from like Mike and Polar, like, hey, do you wanna maybe, and just being like, oh, this is what it's like to actually have something going. I thought when I did murder one, I was on top of the world. Yeah, yeah. Thank you.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
course your parents and letting you go to new york to go you went to a taping or something well we went to we went to we were on like a family trip and i was just like let's go to 30 rock so i can get a letterman t-shirt and we were there didn't even think about doing the tour or anything we were just at the gift shop and my brother and i saw chris elliott walk by and we were like oh
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
And we just chased him down and he stopped and talked to us for like 20 minutes. It was amazing. No way. That's cool.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
I remember when we talked to Chris Elliott, he was talking to us for a while, and then he was like, I gotta go, but you guys should watch the show tonight. I'm gonna try something new out. And it was the first night he did his, remember he did Marlon, this really weird Marlon Brando impression? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Anyway, that was what that was. Calvert DeForest.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
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SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Please tell Abel and Archie. I doubt they remember me, but please tell them hello. I saw Abel yesterday. They're like full teenagers now.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Right. Super high like that. Yeah, like eight years later. My kids have yet to see Parks and Rec.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
We're going to strap these kids down one goddamn day. They should watch Arrested Development, and they should watch BoJack Horseman.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Adam, thank you, dude. Guys, thank you. Love you, buddy. Great to see you. Love you, too. Bye. Bye-bye. Take it easy.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Can I just ask, can I just ask, is it too late to jump in on that blackout curtains? No, no, no, please. We know you're a classic vampire. Let's hear it. Um... No, I have no stance. I don't give a shit, Adam. Really? Okay. What about Naomi? Good opener, good opener.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
No, blackout curtains in like a hotel, I can never wake up with the blackout curtains, but at home, you know, for some reason they don't really have the effect. And that was about as interesting as it got.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
No, we do have blackout curtains now that you mention it. Yes. But, you know, I'm always up early. You know, you have kids, you're up early.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
It's like, what is going on? It sounds like she wants you to wake up. Exactly.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
No, by the way, the, you know. By the way, all of you guys were, there was a whole flurry of activity around you being, what, seven minutes late. It's actually impressive. No, it's just unusual.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Yeah. Tax Act. You have a very pleasant voice. By the way, that's my first time delving into that kind of... And it is the best.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Right, but you've been doing it like at home for, like, you know, you've been, Will, you know exactly what you're doing here. Like, this is what you've been doing for a long time. Oh, yeah. Yes, that is true. It is.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
I mean, look, do you want to see something? Yeah, do you have a different mic? Oh, it's in a box. Look at that.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Germany, we all know Germany. That's where all the good mics come from. It is true.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Well, I think that he was sort of thinking a way into it would be like the workplace comedy that we've all sort of grown accustomed to as kind of its own genre. And he thought that could be a way in for audiences, like see these people working with their banter and all of that, except... none of them know who they are or what they're doing. Right. Yeah.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
And sort of that's sort of the way, and I think that's, and part of the reason he thought of me is because I've, you know, been in workplace comics.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Yeah. I agree, that's part of what I loved about it too. And to sort of the gradual, it was a constant negotiation of how much of the iceberg do we show? First of all, season one, how far are we gonna go? And originally the season was, by the time season one ends, it was gonna be way further down the line story-wise than what it ended up being. Oh, wow.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
So it's constantly that thing, like how much do we want to show? How much do we want the audience to sort of follow the breadcrumbs and all that kind of stuff?
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Shout out to Jake Malloy.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
I didn't know.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Yeah.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
That's a good stat.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
You know what? I needed that to that. Yeah, we do. Yeah, yeah.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Oh, my God.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Yeah.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Wow. Yeah. Good for us.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Good for us.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
No, but then what do you do?
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Okay.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
I quit.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
You guys are wet. You're wet.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Yeah. I'm done. You're wet. You're wet.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Don't, no, don't.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Where were you?
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Right there, right there.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Yeah.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Oz the Mentalist is crazy, man.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
No.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
But it's a good thought. But if it's the parent, it's a double date.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
He was on your head for a while. Yeah, he was on my head at one point.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
That feels pretty good.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
He said, Danny, if you don't read my question, I will be upset and you will receive a strongly worded letter in the P.O. box. Angry sound effect. Do we have an angry sound effect? What? Yeah. Bruh. Yeah, bruh. But we read it, so we're good. Yeah.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
No, you don't.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Yeah, rounder. Better shape. Yeah, better company.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
And, yeah, now there's empty beer bottles, pizza boxes. Do you think I need to kick them out?
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Yeah. You wanted me to comment first. That's cute. Yeah, so I went. And when they get plugged in, they're next to each other, there's an added element. Special.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
So I didn't see that part.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Yeah.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Didn't ask. Didn't ask. Got his slime all over the bench. Did he?
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
All over. And he does. Yeah. All over the fucking bench.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Because you can get stomped.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Yeah.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
It sucks.
The Bread Basket Podcast
WE GOT A FISH, Our Reaction To Mike Malone Getting Fired, And Q's From The Sticks
Yeah.
The Charlie Kirk Show
THOUGHTCRIME: Renewal of the American Dream Speech Special
Would it have been healing to stand for Mark Fogel? Might have been.
The Charlie Kirk Show
THOUGHTCRIME: Renewal of the American Dream Speech Special
I mean, the ex. I love you. You guys were blaming George W. Bush in year eight of the Obama presidency.
The Charlie Kirk Show
THOUGHTCRIME: Renewal of the American Dream Speech Special
We learned something from that. We learned something from that. He's been in office for 40-something days. I am hearing a lot of cope. These social issues, you know why he talks about them?
The Charlie Kirk Show
THOUGHTCRIME: Renewal of the American Dream Speech Special
Because they work. They're like 80-20 issues, and he's on the right side of them, and Democrats are on the wrong side of them. It worked in the campaign, and nobody... Oh, he's not talking about the right things. It worked in the inaugural. It's working in the executive orders. It's why he put it in the speech tonight. And on immigration, you're exactly right.
The Charlie Kirk Show
THOUGHTCRIME: Renewal of the American Dream Speech Special
It's his number one achievement so far. The border's effectively closed. The line of the night was they kept saying we need new legislation to secure the border, but it turns out all we really needed was a new president, without question, in my mind, top-scoring model. I just have to say... I feel like he's got to stay put.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Commodities are priced in dollars. Oil is the most important commodity in the world. It's priced in dollars. So We got to work hard to maintain our reserve currency status. I'm sure that we are going to do it. And President Trump did an incredible job in his first term. There was some bad behavior by the U.S. government in terms of fundamentals. And now we're going to be back on a good track.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And I can tell you, everybody in the world wants to come here now.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Yeah. So the tariffs, we'll see where the negotiations come out. Tariffs are more like a one-time price change. So we could see a price adjustment over the coming months. But at the same time, we're seeing rents go down. We're seeing energy prices go down. My cousin from Daytona Beach, Florida said, If you could believe it, gas in Daytona Beach is $1.92 a gallon.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
So we've seen about a 20% decrease in energy prices. And President Trump is committed to lowering taxes. So the way to think about it, the price on the shelf may go up slightly, but your take-home pay will go up. the sort of what we would call the after tax earnings for whether you're single or for a household will go up. And then the other big tax that is really an invisible tax is regulation.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
So the average household in America, the average, cost of regulation increased by about $3,000 per year under President Biden. And we are working on cutting that back. So you should be able to see a substantial decrease in regulatory burden.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
The very nuanced and important question. Prices can go up over the short term during periods of shortages, but they want to come right back down. What happened was this terrible combination of what the Biden administration did, and it was exactly the opposite of what President Trump did under his first administration. So he cut taxes. And deregulated.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
So when you deregulate, there's more supply of something. There's more supply of energy. There's more supply of housing. There's more supply of goods and services. So there was a demand shock. for goods because people had more disposable income.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
At the same time, there was a supply response, so there was a greater supply of everything, and there was very low inflation, about 2%, which is the long-term average. Under the Biden administration, they were playing with fire anyway, and there were the COVID shortages, but they had a federal spending shock That was, as Charlie said, debt financed. And then they put in more regulations.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
So more regulations meant less supply, higher energy prices, higher house prices. So that was really the recipe for inflation. And what we're trying to do right now is deregulate, get the private sector going again.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Biden administration with this big spending, it was government jobs and we are trying to do what I call reprivatizing the economy, bring down government spending, the re-leverage the private sector and that I think that we are gonna be very successful in that. We're already seeing rents go down, we're seeing energy go down.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
So supply and demand, the more there is of something, the more the price will come down. And we've stopped this crazy money printing and we're gonna get our borrowing under control because like I said, it is for all of you on this call that it is not fair what has happened to leave you with this gigantic debt stack that you're going to have to work your way out of.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Hey, Charlie, great to see you. And this is part of Financial Literacy Month. And I think that there's nothing more important.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Charlie, that's the essence of the Trump economy, and it's really two things, or I would say three. But one is bringing down this debt and deficits, but we're going to do it slowly. We didn't get here all at once. I tell some of the members of Congress who – they're good men and women – And they want to bring the deficit to zero tomorrow.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And I said, look, our fiscal situation, we have a 350-pound, two-pack-a-day patient on the ICU table. And he or she is not going to hop out of the hospital bed and run the Hawaiian Ironman. What we're going to do is do it slowly. Because we didn't get here in one year. We're going to bring down the deficit about a percent every year. And during President Trump's term.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And if we do that, we'll start paying down debt. and creating value. The other thing too is I don't wanna scare all of you because one great thing that you have to look forward to is this incredible productivity boom. What really creates wealth is productivity. The same number of people working either the same hours or fewer hours for more output.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And with this AI boom that's going to be driven by the U.S. lead in technology and the U.S. lead in energy. And that's going to be the real secret sauce that you all are going to see for the next 10, 20 years of your lives in the U.S., that no one else has that combination. We have the world's greatest technology sector and we have the world's biggest energy sector.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
So, you know, if you think about a barbell economy, we have technology on one side, energy on the other, and they're going to meet with AI. And then what President Trump has instructed his cabinet, the econ team like me to do, is to fill in the middle and bring back high performance manufacturing jobs. So, you know, before either you had to be in high tech jobs, It had to be an energy.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And everything in between just got decimated. We gave up on manufacturing. And look, manufacturing, there's one comedian who said, I don't know about all of you. I want to wear Nikes. I don't want to make them. So we're not going to bring back the jobs of the past. We're going to have the jobs of the future here. And these are going to be high-tech, high-value jobs. jobs.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And if someone on the left took a shot at me the other day, they said, oh, Secretary Besson says that the laid off federal workers are all going to work in factories. And I said, you know, that's so reductionist that when a factory isn't just someone who works on the factory floor. And by the way, what's wrong with that? That those are great people. But you're going to create marketing jobs.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
You're going to create accounting jobs. You're going to create the design jobs. You know, we're going to bring all that back. So, you know, I just think that the U.S. has just the right combination right now of technology and energy. And then we're going to fill out everything in between.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Look, I think the digital assets are very exciting. I would advise all of you to understand what you're buying. It's not a casino. But to me, Charlie, the great thing about digital assets, and I think most of you would have been very young during the great financial crisis, but there was something that was called Occupy Wall Street. And it was a group of people who they were probably
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
the progressive or left-wing to begin with, but not everybody. There were people on our side of the aisle, and it was people who just thought the system was not working for them. The system had failed, and as Charlie said early on, we want people involved in wealth accumulation. We want people to believe the system works.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Yeah, Charlie, I don't know, because somehow I got a bad name. I'm older than all of you. I'm 62, but when I was younger, it actually used to be taught. And everyone used to think home economics was like how to cook, how to keep a house, but it was also how to keep a budget. And somehow home economics disappeared, shop disappeared.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And I think the great thing about digital assets is it's brought a whole range the new group of young people to the markets or a whole group of people who just weren't invested in the markets. I will share my dirty little secret with all of you. I'm from South Carolina, so I have a Dr. Pepper for breakfast in the morning. not allowed to do it at home.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
So I ended up at the Circle K on Meeting Street in Charleston, South Carolina, most mornings, before I came to D.C., dressed like this. Lots of the mostly young working-class construction workers, mostly African-American, in there in the morning and buying lottery tickets. And they'd say, Mr., when I win the lottery... Will you manage my money for me? And, you know, I'd see them again and again.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And I was sitting there thinking, if these young men were putting that same $10 or $20 a week into a crypto account, if they'd been buying Bitcoin for five years, they'd own the Circle K. So, and I think... What we were trying to do in the U.S., the Biden administration really tried to make digital assets extinct.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And, you know, I speak to these digital asset entrepreneurs, and they just said it felt like we had a bounty out on our head. A lot of the digital assets went offshore. subject to a lot of scams. And what we're trying to do is apply the U.S. best practices rule of law to digital assets, couple that with American innovation, and make the U.S., the digital asset, the capital of the world.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And I think we're going to do it. And so I think it's exciting. I'd encourage all of you to explore it. Over time, stores of value have changed. And clearly, Bitcoin, Ethereum, they are becoming stores of value. And what I would encourage you to do, though, is think about your own risk tolerance. You probably...
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Depending on your savings, there is some level digital assets are very volatile, but if they're going to be a good investment for the long term, then you could sit through the volatility. But if you want to be involved, think what is the right amount that you're willing to risk? Is it 5% of your assets? Is it 10%? Is it 20?
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And they really keep it well-researched and decide what your risk tolerance is. That way, you're not buying at the top, selling at the bottom. You can do the opposite and always leave a little room to buy a little more.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Charlie, I mean, it's going to make me sound like the most boring person in the world. Great tax planning. Like just sit and think. Think about tax planning, especially like once you have a family. But when do you want to buy a house? When do you not want to buy a house? Right. How do you manage your finances?
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And all these other kind of strange transgender studies things showed up and somehow they were more important than teaching people how to be self-sufficient.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
As you said, the mortgages are deductible, but you buy a house, but you're locked in one place. And then the other thing, too, is there's a famous baseball player, the only baseball player to bat over 400, Ted Williams. And... He was interviewed once, and they said, Ted, how'd you bat 400? And he said, I only swung at strikes. And... You're all young people.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
You are going to see a lot of things happening over your career. There are going to be a lot of great opportunities. And so the other thing I would say is don't be afraid of change. Don't be afraid of volatility. Don't be afraid, like... that of tough situations in my career, and then I'll get off, Charlie, is that I graduated from college in the mid-'80s. It was a crash of 87.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
There were these financials, the savings and loan crisis, the Asia crisis, the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. Let's just say the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. I think Amazon stock may have gone from 100 to 3%. And that the and, you know, Warren Buffett says biggest mistake that he ever made was not Jeff Bezos came to him and said, you know, would you finance me? And he didn't.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
So that try to have a long term when you see a crisis or when you see a dislocation is probably a better word. Think about the long term. and always have some liquidity on the side. In 1987, stock market crash was down 20-something percent in one day, and I worked for this Middle Eastern family. So I was 25. I was freaking out. I was like, oh, my God, what are we going to do?
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And the daughter of the family, who's only – If I was 25, she was 35. She came over calmly and she said, we've been saving up for a rainy day, and this is a great time to get involved. So... Have enough liquidity for a rainy day. Over the course of your life, be prepared to take advantage of very interesting situations. And always know your risk tolerance.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Good. And Charlie, why don't you organize a visit for some of the Turning Point crew here sometime in the next couple of months? We'd love to host them here at Treasury.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus. I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Trey, all three excellent points. And I don't know if you know it, I am from South Carolina. So, go Gamecocks. And at the Trump administration, We are trying to address this incredible affordability crisis that was created by the last administration, and it is a combination of the out-of-control prices, the out-of-control government debt, and we'll come back to that on why that's very important.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
If I was a young person, not fair for my generation to pass it down, and then bring down interest rates, bring down the energy cost and also create economic security. Because one of my big sayings is that economic security is national security. National security is economic security and they're really tied together.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
So, you know, I'll work backwards here and I'll say that I think one of the few good things to come from COVID was it was a beta test and that if we got into a kinetic war, could the U.S. be self-sufficient? And it turns out we're not. We couldn't supply our own medicine. We don't have a lot of rare earths, which go into most of our machinery.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
The semiconductors are all made on the island of Taiwan, steel. So we're trying to bring all those back home. For economic security, one of the reasons I came out from behind my desk in Charleston was I was so alarmed by the way the Biden administration was just spin, spin, spin. And I thought it was deeply cynical what they were doing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
They were running up the debt, and then they were going to come and say, we have to raise taxes, and we were going to become like a European-style social democracy. And in this slow growth, high tax environment, that's the worst thing that young people like you could start out in. And then the last thing is the high government debt. It pushes up interest rates.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
So we have a plan to bring down the government debt and also to make the U.S. energy independent and keep energy prices low.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Another good question, and I'm going to give you an answer that I think is not obvious. Everyone wants to be a great investor, and that's super helpful in terms of how you manage your assets. But the other way, and Charlie alluded to it earlier, is how do you manage your personal assets? Balance sheet, how do you manage your personal finances, and how aware are you of your risk tolerance?
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And a good thing about being a young person is you should have more risk tolerance. There used to be, and I'm not... a proponent of this, but there used to be a very easy rule of thumb. You took 100, subtracted your age, and then that's the percent of your net worth that should be allocated to equities.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
And then over time, as you got closer to retirement, you'd have more fixed income, fewer equities. But one thing that I would really tell everyone to think about is personal tax planning. There's so many things that you can do. that in terms of do you want to live in a low tax state? Do you want to live in a high tax state? The savings plans, when do you want to start?
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
When are you able to start putting money away, even if it's $100 a month? Makes a big difference. And I would echo what Charlie says, is we want to have stakeholders in the system. You want everybody to be part of the system. And you also want people to believe in the system. You want to be smart about everything. Your insurance, is it a good idea when you're very young?
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
You can buy very cheap life insurance. That's a great tax advantage savings product over your life. Where do you keep your money? You want your money to be in a safe and sound bank, but many people get very lazy. And if you have a money market account and a checking account, money market accounts probably going to pay a lot more. It can be a little bit of a pain every week or every month.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
But keep the money in the high-earning account and then just move it over to checking or debit as you need it. And the main thing, too, is just when you're young, don't get over your head in debt. College of Charleston... where I live has a great program for kids. I'm sure all of you have seen freshman year, American Express, all the other credit card companies are out on campus.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
They're here, sign up. This is going to be great. And before you know it, You're into the semester, you're two semesters, you're over your head in debt, you're having trouble making ends meet, maybe have to drop out of school for a while, get a job, your grades go down. So as Charlie said, having smart debt and normally credit card debt is not smart debt.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
So, Nick, good questions. I'll work backwards there. We are not at risk of losing it now. I think if we continued with the Biden administration's reckless policies, there's a chance that we might. I don't believe we are.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
What President Trump has instructed me to do is to put in great economic policies that makes the United States the best place to invest, the best place to compound your capital, best place for innovation, best place for upward social mobility, wealth accumulation, to be able to keep more of what you make. but a very attractive destination for foreigners to bring in their money.
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Because we take the stability that we have here for granted. We take the fact that our markets are free and fair. Around the world, it's not like that. Argentina...
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
that i just visited three weeks ago has a very dynamic president you know you may have seen him president the malay and he is having to save his country but argentina 100 years ago was the ninth richest country in the world now i think it's something like 120th so um Everyone, people like Argentinians want to put their money here. And then why is it important to be the reserve currency?
The Charlie Kirk Show
My Town Hall Conversation With TPUSA Students and Treasury Secretary Bessent
Because it gives us low-cost borrowing, gives us the authority over the rest of the world in terms of issuing debt, in terms of the world is priced in dollars. So it gives U.S. companies an advantage, gives the U.S. government an an advantage for borrowing, and really helps us maintain our defense posture and our foreign presence. Everybody wants to be in the dollar.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
Absolutely. Charlie, think about this. First off, they've allowed anti-Semitic behavior, anti-Israel behavior. That's wrong. But I went up there, and I talked about the fact they ought to be taxed. By the way, Shirley, if you own an office building, do you pay taxes? Yes. If you own a restaurant, do you pay taxes? Yes. If you give a speech, do you pay taxes? Yes.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
Harvard's got $53 billion in the bank, and they don't pay taxes? That's wrong. So these schools should be like all the rest of us. They ought to be paying taxes. But I defended Trump's policies with regard to tariffs. I defended Trump's policies with regard to making our allies in Europe pay their fair share and defend their freedom first.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
So those are the types of things I talked about, balancing the budget. And guess what? When you explain it, how it's going to impact you, that person, that student, they get it. But we ought to do what you're doing all the time. You're going to these college campuses and you're explaining how it impacts their life. And that's what we all ought to be doing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
They didn't push back because when I asked the question, I said, how many of you think that we ought to pay people that don't even want to apply for work? Nobody disagreed with that. Nobody disagreed with me when I said, why isn't Harvard paying taxes when all the rest of us have to pay our taxes? So they didn't push back.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
They didn't push back on Harvard's anti-Semitism and that they need to, there shouldn't be, they shouldn't be discriminated against. Nobody pushed back on that. Who thinks, like who in their right mind thinks we ought to discriminate against people? Or we should attack somebody because of their religion. So, you know, I think what you want to do, you've been doing this all across the country.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
So my plan is to continue to do this around the country because we've got to start standing up for what we believe in. Because guess what? It's common sense. It's what the average person believes in.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
Well, I think he's a typical Democrat. He'll show up and he'll say whatever it takes to say in that setting. But he didn't say why he should be impeached. And by the way, why wasn't he out there wanting to impeach Joe Biden when Joe Biden completely opened our border, completely opened our border, allowed criminals and terrorists and narco traffickers that have flooding across our border.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
I'm on the committee. I'm on Homeland Security Committee with him. He never cared about that. But let's remember what this election is going to be about in 26. It's going to be about whether Donald Trump gets impeached. If the Democrats control the House of Representatives, they will impeach President Trump like they did before for something that he should never be impeached for.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
And then we'll have to have a trial in the Senate if we don't control the Senate. So we need to get out there. One, Ossoff needs to lose. If Brian Kemp wins, we should have a big win in Georgia. But there's a lot of great people in Georgia. Kemp would be a great candidate. He's been a great governor.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
But we need to beat individuals like Ossoff, but we have got to get a bigger majority in the House. We have to have a majority in the House, but a bigger majority would be better.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
They've lost the Democrats have lost their mind. I mean, they still are fighting to have men win all the women's sports. They they you know, they're fighting to make sure MS-13 gang members get to stay in the United States. They don't want anybody, any criminals deported. You saw what the White House put together today with all those pictures of all these people they've deported.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
for the homicide and rape and all these things. They want those people to stay in this country, stay in your neighborhood. They have just, they've lost sight of what the American people believe in. I think, you know, it's crazy. Ossoff is just like them. They are all out to destroy this country with this wokeism, men and women sports, I mean, gang members in the United States.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
It's like, who do they think their voters are? Do you think people are this stupid? So, but we've got to show up. We got to have good candidates. We got to show up. We got to talk about how we're going to solve the American American public's problems. President Trump is busting his butt. He's going to have a lot to say about his first hundred days.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
with the border, with the military recruitment, with trying to bring peace in Europe. I mean, supporting Israel, getting down. I filled up my car this morning, $2.99 a gallon. So gas prices are coming down. So he is getting a lot done, but he's working his butt off. What Doge has been able to do, reduce regulation. Now, we've got a lot of work left to do.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
We've got our nominees done, but we've got to get the Trump tax cuts permanent. We've got to give him more money to secure the border. We've got to get more money to plus up the military. And we've got to balance this budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
What a waste of time. I mean, These guys have done nothing to secure the border. They've done nothing to get American jobs. They've done nothing to make the country safer. They've done nothing to balance the budget. They've done nothing to reduce your taxes. I mean, what have they done? I mean, nothing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
I mean, and they supported Biden the entire four years he was president with his open border policies, the criminals, the lack of new full-paying jobs, the unbelievable inflation. So It's like they are out in left field. No one understands what they stand for anymore except people – I mean I don't know. I don't know who the Democrats think they report. I mean look at what they're talking about.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
They're going to El Salvador and trying to get a gang member back into the United States?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
So it's starting to go through committee. They're starting to have a lot of conversation both in the House and Senate. We're working on how do we do all the things that we want to accomplish. So I've got two meetings tonight to basically work with my –
The Charlie Kirk Show
Can The Left Learn To Podcast? ft. Tim Pool
my friends at the House to try to figure out how do we balance the budget, reduce the taxes, make the Trump tax cuts permanent, secure the border, all these things. So it's going to be a lot of work, but I'm optimistic that we can get it done in the next two months.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Pete Hegseth Confirmation Hearing Watch Party
He was instrumental in 2014 and 2017 in ensuring that veterans had health care choice. The second letter submitted by Mr. Cason Sparrow, Digital Media Director of CBA from 2015 to 2017 stated, Pete brought incredible energy, focus, and a clear vision to the organization and showed everything that the team accomplished together.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Pete Hegseth Confirmation Hearing Watch Party
First, congratulations on your nomination. Thank you, Senator. And thank you for being willing to serve our nation. I served in the Navy. I'm really proud of my dad. He was crazy. He did all four combat jumps with the 82nd Airborne. He, after that, survived all that and fought in the Battle of the Bulge. And what they went through, it was hell.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Pete Hegseth Confirmation Hearing Watch Party
So I have a lot of respect for him and for everybody that puts on the uniform and serves in battle and has to lead people in battle. Because being on a ship, that didn't happen to me, but I had a lot of friends that happened to him. It clearly happened to my dad. I've served on this committee for six years, two years under President Trump and the past four under President Joe Biden.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Pete Hegseth Confirmation Hearing Watch Party
I've seen how the Biden-Harris administration pushed the DOD to prioritize wokeness over being the most lethal military force in the world. It's our readiness, our national security, and our ability to recruit people who are willing to put their lives on the line for our country.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Pete Hegseth Confirmation Hearing Watch Party
Can you talk about some of the changes we can make to improve recruitment and rebuild our military into the most lethal force in the world?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Rejecting Tariffs, or Rejecting Uncertainty?
And I'm not happy with what's going on in the market today, but the distribution of equities across households, the top 10% of Americans own 88% of equities, 88% of the stock market. The next 40% owns 12% of the stock market. The bottom 50 has debt debtors. They have credit card bills. They rent their homes. They have auto loans. And we've got to give them some relief.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Rejecting Tariffs, or Rejecting Uncertainty?
I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Number one, we want American jobs. I built the largest hospital company in the world. And then after that, I built a variety of manufacturing companies. If you have a Corvette, I probably made your outer body. If you have a John Deere tractor, I probably made your chain. If you have a towable recreational vehicle, I probably made your chassis. I built the biggest companies in those industries.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
And we need more American jobs. I was competing against China. China subsidizes their companies. They don't comply with any trade deals. Their quality in many cases is horrible. So if we want good paying American jobs, we got to protect American manufacturers. So what Trump is trying to do with having fair trade,
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
fair trade protection policies that are saying, look, if you are going to protect American companies from being able to sell into your country, which China, as an example, does not let us compete fairly in their country, if you're not going to be fair, then we're going to put tariffs on you because we're going to protect American jobs.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
If we go to war, we're going to want to know that we can build things in our own country. We want to buy our drugs built in our country. We want to buy our military equipment built in our country. We want to buy everything we can built in this country and protect American jobs. So what he's doing is he's doing exactly what he said he was going to do on the campaign trail.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Well, the most important thing is we've got to figure out how do you build American jobs? Here's how you do it. I mean, I build companies all over the United States. I did business probably in 40 states. Issue one, you make sure that you've got the best employees. You make sure you don't have regulations that your competition doesn't have. You make it easy to get a permit.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
You don't have taxes and fees that your competition doesn't have. And if you do, American engineers are always going to win. But when other countries subsidize their industries... then we've got to do what Donald Trump is doing. He's going to say, that's not fair. Then we're going to do the same thing in ours. And the way he's going to do it is through tariffs.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
So I'm glad that the president is standing up for American jobs. I'm excited. I think people, I think these companies worldwide are going to come back to America and we're going to see a renaissance of new jobs. You already saw it, I think, in the February numbers. Under the Biden administration, we've been losing about 9,000 manufacturing jobs a month.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
His first month, February, we added 10,000 manufacturing jobs. So I think that's going to continue.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Well, part of it is the agencies can do on their own. It's regulations that have been put in place over the years. They can eliminate those regulations. They can make it easier to get a permit. Right now, if you're dealing with the Corps of Engineers, it's like it's a black hole. You don't even know how to get a permit. It takes forever to get a permit. So then Congress can do some things.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Congress has passed legislation in the past that makes it harder to do business in the country. We have to say, look, we're competing globally. We've got to compete globally. If we're going to compete globally, that means we can't have rules and regulations that don't make any sense. Next, our state governments have to do the same thing, and our local governments have to do the same thing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Some of it's local, some of it's state, some of it's federal. Some can be done by the Trump administration on their own. Some has to be done through Congress. So it's got to be all hands on deck. And what businesses have to do is they have to be very clear. I tell them all the time, tell me where your problem is. If I have to call a governor, I'll call them.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
If I have to call a mayor, I'll call them. If I have to call a secretary that works for Trump, I'll call them. Tell me what your problems are because I want more jobs in America. I did the same thing when I was governor of Florida. We added 1.7 million jobs in my eight years as governor, and the state had lost 800,000 jobs four years before I became governor. So that's what we have to do.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
We have to go solve companies' problems and we'll get more great American-paying jobs. And you can go buy American. Stop buying anything made in China. They want to destroy your way of life. If Amazon doesn't tell you where it's made, don't buy it. If you get online anywhere, they don't tell you where it's made, assume the worst, don't buy it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Well, look, the election's not over until tomorrow night when the election's closed. We've got two elections. We've got Jimmy Paternus taking Matt Gaetz's seat, and we've got Randy Fine taking Mike Walt's seat. So we've got to get our vote out. And these special elections are always scary because the turnout is so much lower.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
In Randy Fine's case, his opponent raised over $10 million because with ActBlue, they were all in. So here's what I tell everybody. Get out and vote. If you're in Randy Fine's area, you've got to get out and vote. If you're in Jim Petronas, go vote. Don't take a chance. Make sure, you know, we have a big win. I think we're going to win, but it's all vote on bait. It's turnout today and tomorrow.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
We just have to understand that every election matters and we got to stay active. So you as a candidate has got to do their job. Now, let me tell you, Donald Trump is doing his job. He's done telephone town halls for both Jimmy Petronas and Randy Fine. He's done tweets. He's done everything he can. He endorsed them. He's doing everything he can to get the votes out. I've endorsed them.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
I've done telephone town halls. I'm going to do everything I can to continue to help them get the vote out. But all of us have to, you know, we have to volunteer. We have to, and you don't have to be in that district to volunteer. You can make phone calls. You can send texts on behalf of Randy Feiner, Jimmy Petortis. But that's true in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Anywhere where we have an election, we nationwide have to be all on board to help make sure we win.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Reconciliation. I think our first vote on reconciliation is going to happen this week. We've been working our tail off. By the way, I saw President Trump Friday night down in Mar-a-Lago. He is absolutely on board to figuring out how to balance this budget. So what we've got to do is we've got to go back to pre-pandemic spending. because we can't be running these two trillion dollar deficits.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
We've got to give the president the money he needs for the border, the money we need to make sure we plus up our military. And we've got to make sure we keep the Trump tax cuts in place. We keep this economy going. I'm I'm very optimistic. All those things are going to happen.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
There is plenty of opportunity, and I've had companies tell us point blank that they're going to have to bring product back here if those tariffs are implemented.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Senator Cantwell, as I discussed in your office, that in my hometown of Charleston, South Carolina, Boeing is also the largest employer. So I view aviation as very important.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Again, I think I don't understand the nuance of that question, but I will get back to you on it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Senator Campbell, thank you for that. And after our discussion in your office, I actually went back and looked at some older data. In 2000, in terms of the labor share of aggregate income in the U.S., 69% accrued to labor. Today, that number is 60, and you could see a sharp drop after what is called the China shock. So I agree with you that opening markets
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
is good, but the free trade must be also balanced against fair trade. And clearly what has happened is the trade has not been fair. That has fallen on the American workers. And we cannot allow, as I think I mentioned to you, China is the most imbalanced, unbalanced economy in the history of the world. They are in a severe recession slash depression.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
They may have minus 4% disinflation, and they are attempting to export their way out of that as opposed to doing the much-needed internal rebalance. So I am with you on the need to open markets, but we cannot allow a player like this to flood our markets or to flood the world.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
So again, Senator, I am unfamiliar with that exact provision, but I do believe that it is important for us to mine, accumulate, and... move to domestic production for rare earths and other vital minerals. So I will get back to you on that exact, my thoughts on that exact program, but on a atmospheric meta basis, I agree with the direction of travel.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
The bad actors, especially Iran. I think I'm right. Maybe not in the exact numbers, but in order of magnitude, I believe Iran was down to one hundred thousand barrels. oil exports when President Trump left office, I believe that they are now exporting in excess or approximately 1.7 million. So through sanctions policy, I believe that we can, again, as I like to say, make our
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Iran poor again, not the Iranian people, the Iranian government. And then at the same time, they have our domestic producers push that up with the highest energy standards in the world.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Senator, I think it would be devastating, especially for small businesses. One of the things that, as someone who came from a very small town, Lived in New York with a very big town and came back to a small town. I believe Wall Street has done great the past few years and that Main Street has suffered. I think it's Main Street's time. Wall Street can continue to do well, maybe not as well.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
And it's time to have a Main Street small business-led recovery led by small banks, regional banks.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Of course, and I actually believe that the notion that President Trump believes he should have influence, there was, I believe, a highly inaccurate Wall Street Journal article saying that he believed something to the effect that he should be in the room. President Trump is going to make his views known, as many senators did. Three senators, including two on this committee,
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Called for, there was a jumbo rate cut in September, 50 basis points. Two of the senators on this committee called for 70.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
I think on monetary policy decisions, the FOMC should be independent.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Well, look, I believe as we saw. I don't know if it's a regulation, but it's a policy. As we saw from the December 8th hack by some Chinese entities into the Treasury, which was very serious, that that was through a work-from-home software app.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
So one of the policies that I support, I intend to be in the building every day that I am in Washington, and I support a return to the office, which is against the current Treasury policy.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Of course. I'm happy to provide that in writing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Well, I wouldn't note that President Biden gave the Presidential Medal of Freedom to two people who I think would qualify for his oligarchs.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Do you think that that is an oligarchic form of society? Senator, I think it depends on the ability to move up and down the... No, that's not really the answer.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Senator, I believe that the minimum wage is more of a statewide and regional issue. So you don't think we should change the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour?
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Senator, I think we can both agree that many credit card companies have been bad actors throughout history. And I will get back to you once more. Very simple question.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
When President Trump takes office and if I am confirmed, I will follow what President Trump wants to do.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
Hey, Charlie. Can you hear me?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
Hey, excellent. First of all, we had a chance. You had me on the show about two weeks ago, and we talked about Idaho. I remember that. I don't know if you remember that. And you said Daisy was going to follow up with me to talk again. I've got a lot of ideas. It'd be great if she reached out. I'd love to do that.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
So my question is about the inauguration and drone threats. And before I ask my question, allow me to share real quick information about my qualifications and statements from the US government that are really informative. So I worked in the counter drone sector for several years. These are the systems that are meant to detect, track, and then stop drones.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
And as part of my work, I participated in meetings with the Secret Service, DOD, DHS, FBI, and other government agencies. The information I'm talking about today is available in the public domain. It's not from these meetings. The first most important thing, and people aren't talking about this, is that Trump didn't go to Bedminster to the drone threats. That's never happened before. Right.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
And if he doesn't feel comfortable, why should we? The second out of these three points is that DHS, FBI, FAA, and DOD statement, they came out and said that such drone sightings near or over DOD installations are not new. I mean, come on. And anybody in counter drone sector like myself has known this for years. Third, you're a football fan for the wrong team, the Oregon Ducks, sadly.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
But a couple of years ago, there were two drone sightings on one weekend alone in Seattle, one at Husky Stadium and one at the Seahawks Stadium. And neither time was the drone pilot found. So this other question and the last point that people don't understand, I can share some details if you want.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
But it's 10 times more difficult to detect, track, and take down drones in an urban environment than a wide open area. I mean, think of you're out in a wide open area and you're shouting, right? And your voice just carries over a large area. Now, for an urban environment, you're in an echo chamber, Charlie, with me and other folks, five or six people, and you all shout at once and the
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
The radar signals are like that. They're just bouncing around and you can't hear your own message. So urban environments, it's practically impossible to protect people. So my question is, are you aware of the US government can't guarantee the safety of people attending the inauguration?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 221: The Lukewarm Christian Rut? No More College Non-Profits? Hope For Europe?
Hey, Charlie. This is Scott. I'm from Boise. And I can't tell you enough how much Europe and Germany are at a tipping point for political transformation. And you're one of the few that sense that in the U.S. And your support for free speech, alternative for Deutschland, is helping drive this change. So I have two questions. First, where are you going on your upcoming trip to Europe?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 221: The Lukewarm Christian Rut? No More College Non-Profits? Hope For Europe?
And then a couple thoughts real quickly before I ask my second question. I sent you a Make Europe Great Again hat for you to wear during your trip. And don't underestimate the symbolic power of this mega hat. I lived and I worked in Germany for several years. I speak German. Germans still follow American culture and politics closely.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 221: The Lukewarm Christian Rut? No More College Non-Profits? Hope For Europe?
Some Germans on your trip may tell you it's impossible to hold your Q&A and events on German campuses. Don't listen to them. Even just a few events a year will help spread the MAGA and MEGA energy across Germany and Europe. So that's my second question. Are you planning future events in Germany to support free speech and political transformation?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 221: The Lukewarm Christian Rut? No More College Non-Profits? Hope For Europe?
So you talk about organizing events. I have a buddy of mine. He's a venture capitalist. He's done a lot with grassroots organizations in Germany. Don't give up. I sent you a five point plan with the hat. I mean, people believe that you couldn't do this in America. It is possible in Germany. Trust me if you have the right team. Just just don't give up.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Well, Pete's going to do a great job. You know what I like about Pete is he actually fought in a war. He volunteered to do this. He led troops. He knows what it's like to be a war fighter. He knows people have lost their lives. He knows people have been injured. So he's going to, one, make sure that we don't have DEI, we have the best people.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
And number two, he's going to make sure we're not sending people in harm's way if we don't have a plan to win. We're going to start winning instead of doing all these things where we just send our troops all over the world and have no plan. We limit what they can do. Pete's not going to let that happen. So I'm really excited for him.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
So at this point, Obama had 13 cabinet members confirmed, and President Trump has four. We'll have the Treasury Secretary confirmed tonight, and what we're going to be doing is we're going to be doing these all week. We did the right thing by staying over the weekend. Finally, the Democrats relented because they wanted to go home, but we didn't slow down our process.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
So unfortunately, it's going to take us longer because of the Democrats' obstruction. But President Trump has picked great people. We are staying here to get his confirmations done. They can slow it down from a time standpoint, but they can't prevent these nominees from being confirmed.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Absolutely. So he's done the right thing. One, he's bringing up bills that are Republican bills. The first one is Lake and Riley. We actually got some Democrat votes on that. This week, we have the ICC bill that would have sanctions for people that support the ICC when they went out and indicted Netanyahu. But with regard to nominations, He's doing it as quickly as he can.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Thune is doing it as quickly as he can with the Democrats' obstruction. So maybe they'll eventually relent. But the only way they're going to relent is if we make him stay here. And Leader Thune is doing that. So I'm very appreciative of what he's doing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Here's the difference. In Florida, we know that it's our responsibility to take the lead. So as an example, I had wildfires when I was governor. I had four hurricanes. And we didn't say, oh, let's wait and see if the federal government shows up and see if they'll help us solve this problem.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
We went and solved the problem on our own, realizing the federal government can provide some financial resources, but they're not going to lead this. They're not going to lead us out of this problem. So if you look at North Carolina and look at California, their governors have thought, oh, the federal government's going to do all this. We don't have to do it. So you look at California.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
I don't know why they have wildfires. One, they didn't have enough water. Whose responsibility is that? The governor's. Number two, the reservoirs were not full. Whose responsibility is that? The governor's. so what you have to do is one you have to take responsibility to prevent it so in florida we've had some we've had some small wildfires but we actually do prescribed burning in our forests
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
to make sure we don't have a situation where we can get wildfires. And then on top of that, when we do, which he had twice down in the Everglades when I was governor, we went and put them out quickly. We put all resources, state and local resources. We didn't wait for the federal government to show up. In California, they think somebody else is going to solve their problems.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
No one's solving your problem. You've got to do this yourself. The federal government can provide you some financial resources, but they don't have a whole bunch of first responders they can send to solve your problem.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Well, number one, we need to make sure everybody understands the first responsibility is local, then state, and then the federal government can provide some resources. So I'll give you an example. When I became governor, I had no idea why it was like this. The federal government paid 75% and even more for debris pickup in our state when we had a hurricane.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
I never understood why they did that, but they did. But what that allowed is a whole bunch of fraud. So I actually finally, it took me six years, I finally got a bill to crack down on that. I finally got it passed in December because there was billions of dollars of fraud. I probably saved the federal government over a billion dollars of fraud just in one hurricane, Hurricane Irma.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
So you can take that for each piece of this. The states need to be responsible. The local governments need to be responsible. Quit relying on the federal government to solve our problem. Otherwise, why do we have governors? Why do we have mayors? So I think what President Trump's in a position to say, wait a minute, the federal government can't do everything.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
They can do some things, but they can't do everything. And the federal government is just not a piggy bank for everything that the local or state government wants done. He knows we have $36 trillion for the debt. We're running $2 trillion deficits. We've got to get our fiscal house in order. And part of it is stop wasting money. So there is a better way to do this.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
you know, after disasters, a better way for the federal government to be a partner because what they do is, oh, it's just like the bridge in Baltimore. The federal government is paying 100% of that. There was a bridge built at the exact same time in Florida. Why don't we have the problem?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Because when we built the bridge, we built barriers so if a ship hit the edge, it didn't knock down the whole bridge. But in Baltimore, they didn't want to do that for some reason. And now the federal government somehow became, you as a taxpayer in any other state, you're now responsible for that building 100%, 100% building that bridge in Baltimore. That makes no sense to the rest of the country.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Why isn't Baltimore responsible first? Why isn't Maryland responsible first?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Well, I've gotten to know him over the last few years. What a great guy. Successful business guy. I like business people that run for office since that was my background. Here's a guy that was very clear of things he wanted to accomplish to fix this country. I've been working with him to go to Doge for the last few months. And now I'm excited. I hope he decides to run for governor.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
We need to have a really good governor. A good friend of mine now is the governor of Indiana, Mike Braun. who did a great job in the U.S. Senate. So governors matter. If you want better jobs, you want better schools, if you want better law enforcement, governors matter.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Vivek will do a great job in Ohio and continue to make sure Ohio is a leading state for education, for jobs, and for public safety.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Well, there's two new sheriffs in town. One, Marco Rubio is Secretary of State, and Donald Trump is President. They clearly have let Petro, the President of Colombia, know that he is not going to play games. So he prevented the planes from landing with the illegal immigrants. And so immediately they went to work. I talked to Marco about it a couple of times yesterday.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
They immediately went to work and said, OK, so if that's the plan you're going to have, then these are the things that are going to happen to you. And he quickly capitulated. He's even going to send the presidential plane to come get illegal immigrants to come here. What they did to Petro is exactly what we need to be doing to every place. Here's one thing I don't get.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
If Mexico is allowing illegal immigrants from other countries to come through their country to come to our border, they should take every illegal immigrant back And they should be the ones that have to send them back to Colombia or Venezuela or wherever. They're the ones that are allowing this to happen. If not, we should hold Mexico accountable.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
But any country that allows their citizens to come into our country illegally, you have to, one, take them back. And two, you are responsible for allowing this to happen. And Petro is clearly responsible for what these individuals are doing. He's made sure there's more drugs being produced. Look, he was a cartel member. I mean, here's a guy that wants more drugs to be sold.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
And whoever his buddies, Diaz-Canal in Cuba, Maduro in Venezuela, Ortega. He is not our friend. The people of Columbia, they're our friend. They want to do business with us. Florida, in particular, does a lot of business with Columbia. But we can't do business with a president of Columbia that is a terrorist, which is exactly what he is.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
That was great. Bye-bye, Charlie. Have a great day. Bye-bye.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
Charlie, I loved my mom. Unfortunately, my mom passed away. I had no interest in my mom telling me what to do. I had zero. I think that's exactly what young men in this country are saying. Look, give us our job. We're smart enough. We can go do this on our own. We don't need the nanny state telling us how to lead our lives. We don't need the tell us what to eat, where to work, any of this stuff.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So just give us an opportunity to go live our dreams. And so I think it's as simple, to me, it's as simple as that. I am sick and tired of how big government has gotten and you can't get a permit to build a business, to build a house, to do anything because of local, state, and federal government.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
If you're white, you're an oppressor. I mean, give me a break. You know what? I'm a kid that grew up in public housing. I joined the Navy at 18. OK, and I just wanted my chance to live the dream. Just give me my mom said, look, everything is your fault and your success is going to be your fault. Your failure is going to be your fault. So just let me go after my own success and get out of my way.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
But Jimmy Petronas is in the panhandle. He's taking Matt Gaetz's seat. Okay. Then Randy Fine, the Republican, is taking Mike Walsh's seat. So we've got to get our vote out. You know, in special elections, often the vote is, you know, there's low voter turnout. And this is when we have, you know, these are both should be, all right, in a normal year, this would be easy Republican wins.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
But what we're seeing now is, are Democrats about races? Because they know this is the chance to reduce the majority of the Republican's in the House. We've got to win. Jimmy's got to win. Randy's got to win. So here's what you can do. Give them money. You can make phone calls to people you might know in that district, from anywhere in the country. You've got to get the vote out.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
We've got to get everybody to go to the polls. You can early vote in Florida right now, and you can vote on Election Day. So we've got eight days to go. It's a week from Tuesday. Get the vote out. You've got to get out to vote. That's how I've won my elections in Florida. We've got to get the people out to vote.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
Your turnout. It's all who's going to show up and what how you know how you lose these special elections is, you know, people. Oh, gosh, we always win. Oh, I think I was even tracking the race. So I've done I've done tell telephone town hall for Randy just the other day. Just do one thing. We have an election. You have to if you're a Republican. You have to get out there and vote.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
Well, no one took the race seriously. No one thought in a Republican seat that Mike Walsh had won handily that there would have been any risk that we wouldn't win here. And so what's happened is the Democrats have shown up. And they have all this ActBlue money that they can raise.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
And so when you have just ads attacking you, attacking you, and attacking you, and you can't raise money, it makes it hard. And that's exactly what's happened to Randy Fine. So this is going to come down to do our voters show up? If our voters show up, we're going to win because, you know, it's getting late.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
But if you can, if you can donate to Randy Fine or donate to Jimmy Petronas, donate to him. If you have the time to make phone calls to get the vote out, you can call their campaigns. You can get on their websites and you can, You know, I know vote. I think Randy Fines is VoteRandyFine.com. You can get on there and you make phone calls for them. You can send texts for them.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So we've got to get our votes out. What? We know where the votes are.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
Jimmy Petronas is up in the panhandle. Yeah, no, that's fine. But Randy Fine, where is that? Yeah, Randy Fine. Randy's at Melbourne area. Okay. So... So a little bit south. That's conservative country there. Oh, yeah. We should win handily. It's just the fact that no one took the race seriously. It's a big Republican seat. Mike Waltz won easily.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So Josh, the other candidate, has been able to raise a lot of money, and he's run terrible ads, just complete lies about Randy. But we've got to go hustle.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So we did last week was our vote, our recess. We're back in our districts, our states. And now we're back up here for three weeks. So in three weeks, we're going to work our tail off to try to get this reconciliation done. So we're going to work with our House colleagues on doing these things.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
Number one, we've got to make sure Trump has the money to get rid of the illegals, the criminals, the terrorists, the narco traffic, and people selling our drugstore kits. He needs $175 billion to do that. We've got to plus up our military to be able to defend ourselves. And then third, we've got to balance the budget, and we've got to get the Trump tax cuts extended.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So we've got to work with our House colleagues. Really hard to get this done. We can balance a budget. We can do all these things right now, but it's going to take a lot of work over the next three weeks.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So Elon's done a great job giving information to our secretaries of ways they can reduce staffing, reduce wasteful spending. Now what we've got to do is we've got to, one, do a rescission package. What the White House can do, they can send us a rescission package. It only takes 218 members of the House, 51 members in the Senate, and we can get rid of that spending.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
I know the White House is looking at that. I spoke with OMB last week about it. So I know they're looking at that. And then as we do our budget for 2026, which will be part of this reconciliation, we can dramatically reduce that spending and take those DOGE cuts and put them in our reconciliation bill.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So, Charlie, think about what was the election about? The election was about secure the border, make us safe, get inflation under control. Inflation will not come down. Interest rates will not come down if we don't balance the budget. They're not going to. It's all caused, it's a monetary, it's caused because of wasteful spending. We're spending $2 trillion more than we take in.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
We've had a 2% increase in our population, a 53% increase in spending in five years. So what we've got to do is we've got to do what you do. I mean, Charlie, you do it, everybody does it. You go, you get your credit card, you look at all the lines and say, Well, was that one right? Oh, I'm not going to do that one again. We're not going to spend money like that. That's what you do.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
We've got to do the same thing at the federal level. We did it in my business life constantly. When I was governor, I went through all 4,000 lines of the budget. Ron Johnson just had an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal saying, let's get the House, the Senate, the White House together, and let's go line by line through the budget. I did that as governor. That's how we balanced the budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
We reduced spending and we reduced wasteful spending because we had a purpose for every line. That's what you should expect out of your tax dollars. There should be a purpose, not $600,000 to study the menstrual cycle of transgender men or $800,000 to do gardening and new chicken gardening in El Salvador. I mean, this stuff is crazy. This is all doable. We can balance this budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
If we're going to get inflation under control, get interest rates down so you can afford that house or afford that car, it's going to be because we balance the budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
Absolutely. Charlie, it's simple. What the way to do it is we right now, they're anticipating that we're going to collect about five and a half trillion dollars. What do you do with your personal life? OK, you say, I'm not spending more than that. So what we should do is say our spending level will be the same as our revenues or less.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
When I was governor, it was less, and I paid off a third of the state debt. So we should say, okay, there's a lot of nice-to-haves, but we don't have the revenues for that. The taxpayers are not willing to give us the money to do those things. So the way to do it is to say, I'm not going to cut anything. I'm going to say this is what I'm going to spend money on.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
These are my highest priorities, but nothing else. This is the only amount of money I have to spend. It's just like what every family does with their personal life. We've got to do it with your with the federal government.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
For the first time in our nation's history, a 30-year-old man or woman isn't doing as well as his or her parents were at 30. That is the social compact breaking down. People aged 30 to 34, 60 percent of them in 1990 had one child. Now it's 27 percent. People are opting out of America. They're not optimistic about it. They're not having kids. Young people aren't having sex. They're not meeting.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
They're not mating. The pool of emotionally and economically viable men shrinks every day, which lessens household formation. So we have a real issue. Young people are enraged. So it turns every cut, every movement into an opportunistic infection because, quite frankly, they are just pissed off. And that's why they voted for President Donald Trump.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 216: No Taxes Under $150k? Elon Musk Army?
And by the way, you've got your Jim Rockford look going today and you're rocking it. Good job. Well, thank you. Hey, listen, the reason I called is I noticed that there's a lot of stock price manipulation going on, both with elected officials. mutual funds, that sort of thing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 216: No Taxes Under $150k? Elon Musk Army?
And I was just curious if you thought that going to a zero tax on dividends would shift investment away from kiting stocks into more well-run companies.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
I bet you're having fun and the weather's pretty good too.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Okay, here we go. Charlie, I was ready for this because I'm a business guy, so I expected this. I do a weekly newsletter to all my constituents every week. 12,000 phone calls to my 10 offices. We passed a reconciliation bill Thursday night. We got Kash Patel confirmed. We got Howard Lutton confirmed. And I filed a merit-based hiring bill, which means that we'll stop this stuff that you
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
You know that, you know, federal workers are like different than everybody else that you can't fire people for not doing their job. So is that enough? I can give you a bunch more if you want.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So, you know, Charlie, this is so simplistic. What Elon Musk is asking for is exactly what should be done. There should be complete accountability by every federal worker, right? And guess what? I was governor of Florida for eight years, and that's exactly what I ask everybody to do. Tell me what you're going to get done this week, because we have an obligation. There are no non-essential workers.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
There was none in my business life. There's not going to be in state government. There shouldn't be in the federal government.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
It doesn't it doesn't make any sense. Like you, Charlie, you have the right to pick which restaurant you go to. So if if you have a bad waiter, if you have bad food, you don't go back. Right. So you are deciding not to continue those people from having a job. You do it every day. We do it every day based on what services we'll buy, what products we buy, all that stuff.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So when I became governor of Florida, that's the way I thought because I built business. I built the largest hospital company. I built a bunch of manufacturing companies. Every employee had a purpose or they weren't there. And by the way, if you get fired, you decided to get fired. Any good manager is very clear what they expect out of you.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So if you get fired, it's not a surprise because they told you this is what your expectation was. And then you decided not to do it. That's exactly what ought to be happening. So I did it as governor of Florida. We created unbelievable efficiencies. I think we went from like 127,000 employees to 112,000 employees because, you know, we didn't need as many employees. We tried every day.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
How do you get more efficient? How do I get more efficient? How do I provide better service to the citizens of Florida at a lower price? That's what businesses do.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Our job should be accountability. Our job should be we want. There's two things really that Trump's team has brought to the table. When you look at when you look at his cabinet picks, what they bring to the table, in my opinion, is two things. A commitment to transparency and a commitment to accountability. So as an example, I was talking to Pam Bondi, who's a good friend of mine the other day.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
I mean, under both, under the FBI and DOJ, under Biden, they didn't think they had an obligation to tell us why they're doing the way, what they're doing. Pam Bondi and Kash Patel think totally different. They know that it's a responsibility of everybody that runs any part of the federal government is tell the American public what the living daylights is going on.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So that's what we ought to be doing. What we ought to be doing here is holding hearings and hold people accountable. So on Homeland Security, Rand Paul is running that committee now, and we're going to have a committee here. And so we're going to be asking people all the hard questions. Did you get something done? Why does it cost that much? Can you provide a better service?
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
We want, my office, one for the best constituent services team in the country last year of all House members and Senate members. The reason we did is we have a measurement system for success. What are the people looking for? That's what we do.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Well, if you think about it, with $36 trillion of debt, now we're at $36.5 trillion of debt. We're growing about every, you know, it'll be $2 trillion this year in increase. So inflation will not come down, all right? And interest rates will not come down. I mean, inflation and interest rates are completely tied to wasteful government spending, all right? So we don't have a choice.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
I became governor of Florida, and we had not lived within our means for 20 straight years. We had added a billion dollars of excess debt every year for 20 straight years. We're about to go into fault on our debt. Eventually, people are not going to buy our debt. They're going to say, I don't know that you can pay all that money back. But the worst thing is for poor families.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
I grew up in a poor family. A lot of Americans did. My mom would have had a hard time with the inflation we've had under Biden and where interest rates are now.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So here we got two big things, right? We want to get a reconciliation bill done that does these things, right? We want to secure the border. We want to build up our military. We want to extend the Trump tax cuts. And there's a variety of other things. We want to reduce wasteful spending. Those are the things we want to get done.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So there's different approaches, whether you have one bill or two bills or three bills. I'm okay with whatever number we have as long as we get those things done. So that we're working on. We passed ours out of the Senate last Thursday. The House will try to pass theirs this week. But then on top of that, on March 14th, if we don't come to an agreement, government gets shut down.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Now, as you know, a lot of Democrats have said they want to shut down government, which is fascinating to me because they always try to blame that on Republicans. But they've got Democrats now saying they want to shut down government. But none of us want to.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
I don't know if a Republican wants to shut down government, but we're going to have to figure out how to come together to get something done that is fiscally responsible, where we don't have a gazillion number of earmarks. That's completely wasteful. Like I think the I think the last year was eight thousand earmarks. Complete waste. Right.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Just complete waste when we're running to train all your deficits. So it's going to be how we bring everybody together to get this done will be very difficult.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Well, we're behind on the number of nominees we've gotten done since Obama's first term, but we're ahead on cabinet picks, which is really good. Now what we're doing is the undersecretaries are going through the committee process to get them out. Tonight we're doing the secretary of the army. Hopefully we'll get that one completed tonight or tomorrow, Wednesday.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So we're going through them and we're doing as quickly as the Democrats allow us. The way it works up here, depending on the nominee, You have 30 hours of debate or two hours of debate. So what we're trying to do is we're doing this as quickly as we can, but the Democrats are not giving us any time back. They're making us take all the 30 hours or two hours for every nominee.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So the other one we want to get done this week is the trade rep, Jameson Greer, which is a really important job dealing with the Trump tariffs. So, but, you know, we're Republicans up here. We are staying. We're working hard to get those things done.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
I think it's great. I think Dan's going to do a great job. First off, here's why I like Cash Patel. The reason I like Cash was because he had been persecuted by the FBI. He had been a target. And so I think he's going to bring a totally different perspective of somebody that's been persecuted. They try to take advantage of it and ruin their life.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Dan Bongino is somebody that's been very vocal on this issue, very vocal on what, you know, what our federal government law enforcement should be doing. So I think I think those two together are going to do a great job. Pam Bondi is going to do a great job as attorney general. She was attorney general of the eight years I was governor of Florida.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So he's Trump's putting together a team that's going to make changes happen and is going to do two things. create transparency and accountability. These entities, which they work for us, they're going to be totally different. So I think Dan's going to do a great job. Cash, Pam, all of them are.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Well, the big thing is be vocal. You showed it in the leaders race last November. Your your voice was heard. Well, I didn't win. We completely changed the Senate. So stay active. That's how you get Trump's nominees done. That's how you get Trump's agenda. Stay active and be vocal.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
They made the right call. Number one, thank God President Trump's the president, so he's going to try to keep our kids and our grandkids safe. I mean, who in their right mind, one, who filed a lawsuit saying, You don't care about kids and grandkids that might be raped or murdered or killed through fentanyl. That's number one.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Number two is, does this judge not have a family member that he cares about? He doesn't care about the crime in this country. I mean, this is stupidity. This is crazy what this judge has done. But I don't know who filed the lawsuit and why they don't care about this country. So I'm glad that President Trump does. I'm glad Tom Holman does.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
I want them to keep fighting every way possible to get rid of criminals, terrorists, people that are selling drugs to our kids and our grandkids and killing them. I want them out of this country. I want people to be safe.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Well, we've got to get Trump judges confirmed. So number one, we've got to make sure that... You know, Trump's White House counsel and Pambani give us the names of those that they want to appoint. Also, we got to get new U.S. attorneys, you know, in position and U.S. marshals.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
So the big thing we can do is, number one, do what Chuck Grassley talked about, is we got to do everything we can to help the judiciary. And then number two is we've got to make sure that President Trump has the resources. We need to get this reconciliation package done as quickly as possible.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
So he has the resources to deport the tens of hundreds of thousands of people that should be deported from this country because they're doing illegal things. And I want this country to be safe.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Absolutely. And here's what we're going to do. We're going to give the president money for the deportations. We're going to plus up the military to make sure we can defend our freedoms. We're going to extend the Trump tax cuts And we're going to start the process of balancing the budget. I think all those things are going to happen.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
We've got to get 218 people in the House to vote for it, 51 Republicans in the Senate. I think we're all going to come together to get this done. So we all know why President Trump won. He won over the border. He won over inflation. He won over a woke federal government, an unaccountable federal government. So he's doing his job. I believe we're going to do our job and get all these things done.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Well, here's what happened. Republicans came together. We did what we should have done. We had a simple continuing resolution. Now, None of us really want to vote for continued resolutions because we want to pass budgets. But unfortunately, this started last summer when Chuck Schumer wouldn't bring these appropriation bills to the floor. So we're stuck in the position we're in.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
We came together in the House. Our Republicans came together in the Senate. And we said we're going to pass this. And so it was up to the Democrats to shut down government. Now, you had Democrats that clearly wanted to shut down government. Andy Kim, Cory Booker, Chris Murphy, and others. They wanted to shut down government.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
But what they realized, I think what Chuck Schumer realized is that was basically playing into Donald Trump's hands. One, they would get known for the shutdown. And number two, it would give an even more authority for President Trump to do exactly what he should be doing, reducing the size of the federal government, reducing the number of people in the federal government.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Because here's what we've got to do. We've got to stop growing the government and start growing the private sector. What we've been doing under the Biden administration, and the same thing happened under Obama, is the government sector grew, not the private sector. We want private sector jobs, not more government jobs. And that's exactly what Donald Trump is doing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
They're part-time jobs. We were losing full-time jobs, only adding part-time jobs. And people born in this country were not getting jobs. Only people born out of this country. Some of them, I'm sure, had become legal through the green cards and things like that. But here's what we knew.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
It was getting more difficult for people that grew up here to get a job, easier for people that didn't grow up here to get a job. I mean, that doesn't make any sense. So Donald Trump didn't walk in with a good economy. Donald Trump walked in with an economy that was struggling, struggling for jobs, struggling with inflation, struggling with interest rates, all these things.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
He's committed to balancing the budget. When we balance the budget, what's going to happen is interest rates are going to come down, inflation is going to come down.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Well, number one, as I travel around Florida, people come up to me all the time, aren't you excited? We're finally heading in the right direction. And they just laugh at the Democrats because the Democrats are still focused on an open border, men playing in women's sports, some of the things that are completely appalling to most of this country. So we're on the right track.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Democrats are on the wrong track. I'm very optimistic about where we're going.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
Hey, Charlie. Thank you. Got great respect for you and Turning Point. And just, it's really changing. everything about the party and MAGA. And there's a lot of work that needs to be done in Idaho. So I just say that, you know, the lives of my youngest daughter and son will never be the same. You can hear the emotion in my voice a little bit after the tyrannical COVID lockdowns.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
And this means that I will do whatever it takes to ensure our red state Republican senators in Idaho confirm President Trump's cabinet nominees. We have to hold those accountable for the suffering, and we have to stop them from sending hundreds of billions of dollars to Ukraine. So I really would like to know What is your strategy for Idaho?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
You know, when are you coming to Idaho and how can I help?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
So I've met him personally in some of the government affairs work I've done. And just by saying this in Idaho, I'm now on a blacklist because nobody wants to go up against these red state rhinos who've been in the Senate so long. He is arrogant. He is out of touch. You go in for a meeting with him in his office. He doesn't really ask you for anything.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
He takes you to an adjoining office with a background of a Capitol photo. And he says, oh, here, we'll take a photo. He shakes your hand and then he leaves. And I really believe that with your support, we could primary him. I mean, you've got a congressman here, Russ Vulture, who's in the Freedom Caucus. He's 62 years old, and he's somebody who could successfully take on Rish.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
He's not in my district, yeah.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
One hundred percent. And let me but let me share two ideas with you that are very important. And you're very pragmatic, which is another reason I enjoy listening to your show, is that you've talked about the big blue cities. We must go beyond Boise. They're real voters are the rural voters. People in the rural areas distrust Boise. We have to engage them. Idaho State University.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
I don't know if you've been there yet, but that's in eastern Idaho. Without an event there, I really believe that the rural voters will feel alienated. What was the school again you said? Idaho State University. It's in Pocatello, Idaho.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
Yeah. We have to engage these rural voters. Take two days to come to Idaho. The other important point is don't forget the Mormons. Over 20% of Idaho residents are Mormon. Senator Crapo is Mormon. So let me mention this. just an hour away from idaho state university is byu idaho if you have an event there you will demand senator crapo's attention you will get the mormon's attention just
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
That alone will change everything.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
Yeah. You had Mark Halperin on earlier. He, um, asked me a question on his two way platform about a week ago. It was very important. His response, uh, So I've been to Russia 50 times. I worked at the European Bank for Reconstruction Development in London. Let me tell you, that is the deepest state of all. We have to get rid of those.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
And what I talked about, Mark, was and I said, Mark, presumption of grace. You know, there are people who understand that Russia is not a threat to the United States. And for the first time, I heard a mainstream reporter say, you know what? I know very smart people on both sides of the aisle. that understand that Russia isn't a threat. So I just wanted to throw that in there.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
I mean, I will do whatever I can to help you in Idaho. I will leave my job right now. I just would love to be part of your team in Idaho. I think I've got some good ideas. So please keep that in mind.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
Well, if there's one person, look at all the things Trump, I mean, look at just the last three days with him. what the president's done. If there's one person that can bring peace around the world, it's President Trump. He did it his first term. He's focused on stopping the Ukraine war, having peace in the Middle East. He's going to the Middle East, making sure India and Pakistan.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
So here's a guy that he wants peace around the world. He's tired of all these forever wars and people dying that don't need to die. So I'm very appreciative of what the president's doing, what the vice president's doing, what Secretary of State Marco Rubio is doing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
Well, thank God. I mean, first off, we need to stand with Israel. We need to fight this anti-Semitism. We need to understand Hamas is a terrorist organization and can never be trusted. We have to hold the Hamas accountable. The Houthis, Hezbollah, we have to hold Qatar accountable for supporting Hamas.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
So we've got a lot of work to do, but President Trump is the right person for the job, and so is Marco Rubio. They're all of them. Vice President Vance, they're all working hard to bring peace.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
I agree with you. A-plus. I mean, here's a guy, shows up every day. He's from a wonderful family. We got elected together. He got elected as U.S. Senator. I got elected as governor back in 2010. He's been a great partner. I was so excited when he got announced as Secretary of State, and he's doing a great job. He shows up every day. He works hard every day. I talked to him the other day.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
He says, I am busy. And he is busy with all the things he's trying to do. Biden left just in horrible shape as a country. He left the at a horrible time with all these conflicts around the world. And the president and vice president and Secretary Rubio are working their tail off trying to bring peace around the world.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
Well, if there's one person that could get a trade deal done, that's Donald Trump. Hope springs eternal. The government of China hates our way of life. Remember, they promised they wouldn't keep selling fentanyl. 70,000 people died of fentanyl coming from China last year. They promised in the past, oh, they would stop stealing our technology, things like that. They do it every day.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
It's a despicable government. So I'm very hopeful. And if one person can do it, it's Donald Trump. Do I believe that in the end China will comply with anything? No. They didn't comply with the Trump trade deal when he was first president. They haven't tried to comply with the most favored nation. They haven't complied with the World Trade Organization. They haven't complied with anything.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
anything they say they're going to do. They lie, cheat and steal. We need to decouple from China. Stop buying their stuff.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
Well, the best way is every American citizen needs to say, China is not my friend. Stop buying from any products, any services, any apps from China. None. Zero. They want to destroy your individual way of life. They might have killed a family member through fentanyl, but they want to steal your jobs. They want to build a military to defeat us. They are despicable. I know the president is trying to
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
in a logical manner, decouple from China. I think we're going to get there. We shouldn't be buying Chinese stocks. They don't comply with the rules of the SEC. Their financial statements do not follow general economics. accounting principles, general accepted accounting principles. So we have to decouple from them.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
Number one, when I got up there, 85% of the drones bought by a federal government were Chinese. None today. Other technologies like LIDAR. We're still buying drugs from China for our military. That's crazy. So we're starting the process every year. We chip away.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
We passed legislation that said their Chinese stocks cannot be sold on our exchanges because they don't comply with general accounting principles. Now, the Biden administration didn't enforce that. The new SEC commissioner said he will enforce it. So every day we chip away. But the best way to do it, don't rely on government. Rely on yourself. They don't like your way of life.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
You have to say, Amazon, if you won't tell us where something's made, I won't buy it. And if you get a package that's made from China, send it back and say, I didn't want anything made in China.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
Well, in the Senate, we had a great policy meeting on Wednesday to talk about it. I know the House has some committee meetings this week. We'll find out where they are. But let's put this in perspective. All of us want to make sure President Trump can secure the border. All of us want to make sure our military can defend our freedom.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
All of us that I know of want to make sure we extend the Trump tax cuts. What we're arguing about is, are we going to get our fiscal house in order? We're anticipating spending like $85 billion. The $1.5 billion that the House is struggling to come up with is less than 2% increase in our saving money when we've had a 53% increase in spending in the last five years.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
We have got to figure out how to get our fiscal house in order or interest rates are not going to come down. Inflation is not going to go away. We're not going to start paying down this debt. So there's a lot of us in the Senate that are working really hard with this. I'm optimistic, but we're not there yet.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
This is going to take a few more weeks to come to a good conclusion, but I'm very optimistic we can get there.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
No. First off, I've never, ever voted for a tax increase. I cut taxes 100 times while I was governor. We need lower taxes and we'll get more revenues. Now, here's we don't have a tax. We don't have a revenue problem. We have record revenues. Revenues are up. We have a spending problem. Fifty three percent increase in spending in five years when the population is up two percent.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
So we don't need we don't need new taxes. We need to figure out how do we balance the budget. Now, I think maybe some people like somebody texted me this morning. They said, you know, I would be OK if you raise my taxes, if you balance a budget. Okay, well, they're not even talking about balance of budget. They're talking about reducing spending. We need to balance the budget, all right?
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
and start paying down debt. That's what I did as governor. I paid off a third of the state debt when I was governor. And guess what? Interest rates kept coming down. Inflation, we didn't have issues with inflation. That's what we've got to do. So no new tax increases, none. Reduce spending. That's what we have to do.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
Absolutely. There's a lot of conversation about how do we make sure the federal programs will work. Take Medicaid. Medicaid should be a program for the poor and the chronically ill. That's what it should be. Not to have people sit on their butt at home. They don't want to work. So we have to go through. We have to do what I did as governor.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
I went through every line of the budget, 4,000 lines of budget, and say, that might be nice to have, but that's somebody's money. I've got to tax somebody to do that. I'm not going to do that. That's what we've got to do with the federal budget. We've got to go through every line and have a written purpose for every line. Look at what Elon Musk has found. Just massive waste, massive waste.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
You can say some of it's fraud, but for sure, massive waste of money that you would never spend your money on.
The Charlie Kirk Show
You're On Trump Time Now
I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
And if we don't figure this out, you know, we're not going to win elections because if you go back, if you go back to the election and I went through it, just like Trump did last year, what do people want? They want a secure border. They want inflation under control. They want transparency. They want accountability and common sense, right? So we have to balance this budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
So I'm hoping that we're going to get it done. Here's the process. Number one, what Elon Musk is doing. Number two, we're working through reconciliation. But the House has a path and we have a path in the Senate. We're going to figure out how to come together. We've got to agree what the top line budget will be for next year.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
If we can get that close to $5.5 trillion with the growth in the economy, which I think that's what Trump is going to do, then I think we can get to a balanced budget very quickly. So I think we're all coming together.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
And then the other thing is, as Elon Musk finds things, as the Trump administration finds things, they can ask for rescission, which only takes 51 votes in the Senate and 218 votes in the House, to take existing committed spending and stop it. And I think that's what the Trump administration is also gonna do. So we've got a lot of different opportunities to get this spending under control.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
I mean, Charlie, we can balance the budget if we start. We just get rid of all the Biden spending. First off, let's go through the numbers. He increased the spending by over two trillion dollars. All right. On top of that, just is the cost of the regulatory state that he created is one point nine trillion dollars. Now, put that in perspective. We only have a $28 trillion economy, right?
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
And he added, what, $8 trillion to the debt, something like that. And if you go look at the real numbers, we've been losing full-time jobs during the Biden administration. We've only been adding part-time jobs. And all the new jobs were going to people not born in this country. That's all changing. Now, Trump's got his work cut out for him.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
But just in the first month, more people born in this country got jobs, right? 10,000 manufacturing jobs. We were losing 9,000 a month. So I'm up and I think he's going to be able to get gas prices down by, you know, allowing the energy industry to produce American energy. So I'm very, you know, this is exciting. I've been in the Senate for six years. We had no ability to get things done.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
This is now the time. This is our chance. And if we don't get it done, people should be very disappointed in us.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
Well, we can't. First off, number one, there's no value of shutting down government. All right. And so here's I don't like CRs, I haven't supported CRs, but I believe I was with Tom Emmer last night and he believes the House is gonna pass what they have on the table, right? And so we needed the Senate, we need to come together and we need to work together to get this accomplished.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
Maybe, I don't know if there's gonna have to be any changes or anything, but we can't allow government to shut down. You know, we have Democrats like Andy Kim and Cory Booker who want to shut down government. That's not good for the American public. And guess what? We'd sell these people, a third of workers to go home and then they still get paid. This is stupidity. I mean, it makes no sense.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
So what we've got to do is we've got to make sure government doesn't get shut down. We got to work on the reconciliation to get the border secure, plus up the military to the extent we need it, extend the Trump tax cuts, do these things.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
So if we do all these things, then I think we're going to have, I don't know how long it's going to take us, but we're going to have a robust American economy again, just what it was like when Trump left.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
I agree. Yep, I agree with you, Charlie.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
Senator, great to see you. That's frustrating. So, and you know, Tom Emmer was there last night also. So, and I think Byron Donalds was there. So, it's all good. So, hey, think about it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
You know, we have the House, the White House and the Senate. Maybe we have an opportunity to get something done here.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
So so I brought in Elon to the Wednesday lunch of Republican senators last week. And what Elon is doing is actually what I did when I first became governor. I mean, what he's doing is he's saying, okay, so let's go through line by line through the budget and let's get rid of the stupidity, the waste, employees that we don't need. I mean, why are we paying for non-essential employees?
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
And so what he's doing is he's giving the Trump administration through the agency heads really good information. And they act on it. So he gives it to Sean Duffy or he gives it to Kristi Noem or he gives it to Marco Rubio and they make a decision of what they should do. But think about somebody, he's, he what? He got $600,000 to study the menstrual cycle of transgender men.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
$300 million to build a cement factory, give them money in Gaza. I mean, $800,000 for gardening in El Salvador. I mean, just stupidity. So I think he's doing a great job.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
We've had a 2% increase in population in five years and a 53% increase in spending. We will not get interest rates down. We will not get inflation under control until we balance the budget. That's what we have to do. And Elon Musk is part of the process of balancing the budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
So, Charlie, in the last five years, we've had a 2% increase in the U.S. population, right? We've increased spending by 53%. Now, we've gone from pre-pandemic, pre-COVID, to today. We've increased the federal deficit annually, federal spending, by $2 trillion. $2 trillion year after year after year. And guess what? That's where we're running in deficits, $2 trillion. So...
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
we can balance this budget. Now, we're not going to get inflation under control. We're not going to get interest rates down, right, if we don't balance the budget. Everybody wants to say, oh, Trump's going to cause inflation to go up with tariffs. No, inflation is caused by government spending in excess of what they have, of what they take in.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
It looks like we'll collect about $5.5 trillion this year. You know what you do in your personal life, Charlie? You probably say, I'm not going to spend more than I take in. And you look at every credit card and you say, I'm not going to do that again, or maybe that's improper.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
But what we've watched with what Elon's done is there's a whole bunch of stuff on an automatic pilot that makes no sense at all. And so, I mean, thank God what he's doing. He thinks he can, his goal is $4 billion a day of savings. He thinks he can get to a trillion dollars by the end of September. So if we can if we can watch our spending, find all this waste and abuse, we have a real shot.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
And President Trump has committed to balance the budget, which helps the poorest families in this country the most because inflation will go away. That's the thing that hurts me. I grew up in a poor family. I watched my mom struggle with inflation. It's the biggest thing. Get grocery prices back down, gas prices back down, you know, everything.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
We got to get it back down to something that people can afford. And bring back American jobs. I don't know if you saw, Charlie, that we've been losing manufacturing jobs month after month after month. The first month of the Trump administration, we added 10,000 manufacturing jobs. That's a big deal. Those are good, way better paying jobs than most jobs.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
You know, the way that I think about Charlie, if they don't do it now, they're going to have to do it because inflation is not going to get under control unless we balance the budget. So what I tell people is, look, we should do it now, but we're going to have to do it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
Hey, Charlie. How are you? I want to talk about the fact. Yeah, I mean, this is a real personal issue for me. It affects our children. But the federal bureaucracy here in Boise, the Social Security office, we call them and they don't even answer the phone. And then we can try to go there in person. They say, hey, you got to make an appointment by phone.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
So to me, it's clear President Trump and people don't talk about this enough. He is a revolutionary president, not incrementalist, but revolutionary. He wants to make these big cuts in government. But I'm really concerned that establishment D.C. is going to slow down and kill his efforts.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
So what percentage of the federal workforce do you think Trump, Doge and the cabinet will be able to cut in the next 12 months?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
Hey, Charlie. So really it's a question that affects everybody here, but I want you to understand where it comes from. You know, these Wuhan virus lockdowns had a lifelong negative impact on the life of our son. That's why we're reaching out to Social Security for Disability. And I want to do my part to expose these government lies. Like, you know, Meghan McCain says, I want revenge.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
And one of the biggest lies in the government's claim about us is they can control U.S. airspace and protect us from drones, like at Autzen Stadium. And I can say for a fact that counter-drone systems can't protect Americans at stadiums, airports, and downtown areas like the U.S. Capitol and the White House. Now, this is the point, and this is really foolish, but you're a father too.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
So I'm willing to bet my life savings, okay, to get attention to this, $100,000. By the way, I have all the respect in the world for Marc Andreessen, but he invested in the best counter drone company called Andrel. And I'm willing to bet that he can't stop me and my friends from crashing a drone into stands at Autzen Stadium during a test When the stadium is empty. Right.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
And don't you want to know if you and your family and friends are protected at Autzen? I mean, they can't protect the White House. They can't protect, you know, DCA. I mean, this is something that people need to know about. I'm serious.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
I go back in about an hour. We're working on these confirmations, these nominations to get them done. So we have to be there. to move the process along because the Democrats keep trying to block it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Well, first off, here's what's frustrating. We've had 13 nominees done. At this time, Obama had 26. So what's happened is they can slow the process down by requiring us to have a vote on every procedural move you can imagine. They are. They're also requiring us to use the entire 30 hours of debate time for every cabinet member, which they are. So, you know, we have to stay there.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
We have to work weekends. We have to get these things done. Tonight, we're going to be doing the confirmation for Tulsi Gabbard. And then once we get her finished, which will be either tomorrow or Wednesday, we'll go to Robert Kennedy. So I'm optimistic that we're going to get enough votes to get everybody through. But be vocal.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Tell your senators how much you care about these individuals because it increases the odds that they'll vote for them.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Well, what they're trying to do is try to make sure he didn't win. I mean he won. He got a mandate. So what we have to do is we have to keep Hussein up there, and eventually I believe what's going to happen is – The Democrats will finally relent, although what Elon Musk is doing is just destroying them. The fact that he's showing this unbelievable abuse.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
I heard there was a tweet this morning that just last week over $50 million was sent from FEMA to hotels in New York City. This has got to stop. So he's finding this. What he did by, you know, we're getting rid of USAID. How could any American say, oh, that was a good use of American money, what USAID was doing? So Trump's right. We've got to go through every line in the budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
I did it as governor. There's 4,000 lines in the budget in Florida. I went through every year, every line. We had a written purpose. That's how we balance the budget. Trump is committed to balancing the budget. So we're going to keep working on these nominations, but we also have to get this budget in line.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Your response to your fellow senator? I mean, he's completely full of it. I mean, here, Donald Trump was elected. He has a mandate to start watching how the money is being spent. The, I mean... I mean, Chris Murphy, I don't know what he's talking about. We should watch how we spend every dollar. That's exactly what Trump is doing. That's what Elon Musk is doing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
He's showing us the unbelievable abuse there is in the system. He's not doing it to help a political ally or hurt somebody else. He's saying, do you want to waste money? Anywhere in the world? I mean, some of the things the USAID was spending money on makes no sense. So Trump's doing what he should be doing. And he's talking about what's important to the American public, balance of budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
So I'm very appreciative of what everybody at Doge is doing. I'm appreciative of what Elon Musk is doing. We've got to go through every line. We've got to get all this money out. Charlie, think about this. In the last five years, we've had a 2% increase in population and a 53% increase in spending. If we went back to spending five years ago, we would balance the budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
We would balance the budget. That means interest rates will come down. That means inflation will go away. We can do that. We should be doing that right now.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Well, what we have is we have one or two or three recreation bills. So with that, what the first one that we're talking about in the Senate is we would fund the border. So Trump can for sure secure the border, which he's doing everything he can. Number two, there's a military spending we need to do. And number three, then we start the process of to extend the Trump tax cuts.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
That would probably be done a little bit later, maybe April, May, June, or July, something like that. In the meantime, government gets shut down March 14th if we don't continue our government funding. So the right thing to do is it would be to go back and balance the budget right now.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
But it's very difficult to do that because we need 60 votes to be able to do the continuing, whatever we're going to do. Typically on a continuing resolution, you have this big blowout spending. Fortunately, We're not talking about big blowout spending bill now.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
They're talking about continuing the existing, which is better than 8,000 earmarks, which is what they've been doing every year since I've been up here, and everything under the sun that somebody wants. So right now, we started the reconciliation process in the Senate. We are working on what we're going to do on March 14th.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Even though it's not the best thing, it's probably the only way we get 60 votes to get something done is the continuing resolution where we don't increase the spending, then we can go with our reconciliation and cut spending as quickly as we can. We have trillion dollars of things that we can cut spending on. We need to cut $2 trillion, and we can do that.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
I mean, it's unbelievable. Think about it. So 2% increase in population growth 53% increase in spending. I mean, that just doesn't make any sense. Why can you balance your budget? Businesses are successful at balancing their budget. I was able to do it when I was governor of Florida. Now, they had not done it but once in 40 years before I became governor.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
But why are states willing to do it and our federal government can't? It's because corporations People don't want to stop spending. They want to just give away free money because it sounds really good, and somebody will say something nice about you. But this is your money. This is not free money. This is your money.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
It's going to be you're going to pay it in increased debt with interest expense, or you're going to pay in higher taxes and fees. That's wrong. It's not fair to the American public. So we've got $36 trillion worth of debt. If we balance the budget, guess what? We wouldn't even have to worry about a debt ceiling increase. We could do what I did when I was governor of Florida.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
We could start paying off debt. When I was governor, I paid off a third of the state debt. We could do that at the federal level and we should be doing that. We have to do that someday.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
CFPB, who I never met one person in the entire country that said, boy, I'm excited because we have the CFPB. So it's just it's just money to go harass Americans. They've harassed Floridians. It's his money to harass them. And guess what? Trump is doing the right thing. I mean, he's done so many things. But shutting down the CFPB would be unbelievably important to help build our economy.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
So I'm on a bill with Ted Cruz, who's the lead on it, to get rid of it. But look at what Trump's done, what he's been in office, what, three weeks? Get rid of USAID, get rid of CFPB. He's got, what, nine Americans back from Hamas, Taliban, Maduro. Maduro is taking people back. See, Colombia is taking people back. The border is secure. I mean, this is three weeks.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Just think what's going to happen in the next little less than four years now.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
My understanding is not. And guess what? They can shut it down because they can decide not to ask for money from the Federal Reserve. So it's not constitutional. It should never be there. And the Trump administration figured this out. Russ vote is going to make sure it doesn't continue in existence.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
He's going to bring common sense to the budget. He's going to look at every dime. He's going to work with Elon Musk. He's going to work with other cabinet members. And they're going to figure out where all the savings are. He has had this job before, so he's got a lot of knowledge. He's a smart guy. He's fearless. He's going to have Trump's back.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
And they're going to figure out how to balance his budget and get this wasteful spending under control. So I'm really excited about Russ Vogt. I've had the opportunity of working with him when he was in the White House the first time and then the last four years while Biden's been in office. So I think he's going to do a fabulous job. And then Dan Bishop is going to be number two there.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Dan used to be in the House. And they're both fiscal hawks, and they know it's your money.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Well, number one, we have to balance the budget, all right? Number two, we have to do everything we can to get China under control. I mean, they want to destroy our way of life. They're killing Americans with fentanyl. They're building a military to be able to defeat us.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
On top of that, we've got to support democracies and fight against the dictatorships anywhere in the world, but especially here close to home, close to Florida in the southern hemisphere. Then I'm excited about RFK, when he's going to come in and make him, he's going to make us healthy again.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Instead of the health care system makes money off of you getting sick, he's going to try to make sure people stay healthy. So you can go agency by agency. We're going to make sure we're independent from the standpoint of oil. We're not going to have bad food that we're eating. I mean, there's so many exciting things going on.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
Charlie, let's think about why President Trump won. He won because he said he was going to secure the border. He's done that. Also said he's going to focus on inflation. The only way we get inflation under control is to stop this wasteful spending. That's what he's doing right now. This is the only part of the budget he's ultimately going to put out.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
But he's got a great team that's focused on how do we get rid of this wasteful spending. Now, think about it. He's done it with what Elon Musk is doing with Doge. He's been cutting spending, and I think they're going to continue to do that. They're finding ridiculous waste of money.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
But what he's done with his blueprint is to show there's so much waste, and he's going to do everything he can to get this budget balanced. Now, it's our job in the House and the Senate to work with the president – to get the spending under control so we can get inflation under control and we can get interest rates down.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
So this is the beginning of controlling the spending, but we're going to do it through our budget process and through the reconciliation process.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
Well, what the president wanted to do is actually balance the budget. He's got a short-term plan to balance the budget. So part of it is going to be— It doesn't make any sense because your family doesn't do it this way. But we have things that are mandatory that we don't even review, like Medicare and Social Security and Medicaid.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
And then we have discretionary things like defense spending and NPR, PBS, things like that, that we focus on every year. Now, what we should be doing is look at all parts of the budget. In the reconciliation process, we're going to be going through the mandatory parts of the budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
And in the budget process, which we have to have done by September 30, we'll be going through the discretionary part. So as I talk to Russ Vogt, who runs the Office of Management and Budget for the president I'll be meeting with this week, their goal is to very quickly balance the budget. But they know they have to work with the House and the Senate.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
So hopefully here's where we need to get down to. My opinion this year, we need to get down to about a $6.5 billion total spend. discretionary and mandatory. And that will get us down to hopefully less than a trillion dollar deficit with the goal that over three years, we balance the budget. Now, if it was me and it was President Trump, we'd balance the budget right now.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
We think we'll collect about $5.5 trillion. We'll see what he collects through the tariff process. But we think that we'll collect at least $5.5 trillion, so we need to get our spending down. Now, is that possible? Absolutely. We've seen a 53% increase in spending in five years and only a 2% increase in population. If we actually went back, all right,
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
and stopped growing the budget and just grew the budget, like let's say since Barack Obama left or since Bill Clinton left, just based on population and inflation, we would have a balanced budget right now. I mean, the Democrats have just thrown money like crazy and they've taken money and made it mandatory, which means we don't even review it every year.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
So it's going to be a lot of work, but I know the president's committed to this. So hopefully we'll get down to less than a trillion dollar this year deficit and with a balanced budget within three years.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
Well, what you ought to be doing, Charlie, is doing exactly what you do with your family budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
you review everything so we should be going through line by line through the defense budget like we do every other budget and say is that a must-have or is that a nice to have we also need to see how can we get things done less expensively so i was just over in denmark finland and estonia two weeks ago and one thing i did was i met with shipbuilders over there to say okay so
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
Can you do it less expensively than what we do it here? We need icebreakers. Can you build them cheaper than we can? You have technology on shipbuilding that you can bring to the United States so we can get things done quicker. So what we have to do is we have to stop saying we're going to do everything and say, okay, so let's prepare for our problems. Our biggest problem right now is China.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
So what do we need to do to prepare for China and spend our money that way, build our budget up that way? I think there's lots of – Charlie, I agree with you. There's lots of savings.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
OK, so I used to run the largest hospital company in the country. All right. There are so many ways to deliver medicine. healthcare less expensive than we do it. So here's some of the things we're doing wrong, in my opinion. Number one, we shouldn't be covering people that don't want to even look for a job.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
If you don't want to even look for a job, then why are we giving you free public housing, food stamps, healthcare, any of that? So that's number one. Number two, it's supposed to be a match program, but what's actually happened
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
is states have taken advantage of the program and now it's become, most of it is, all the growth is in federal spending because they've used provider taxes to dramatically increase the federal spending, but not the state spending. It's supposed to be a match. Next, the match between the states is tied to the income levels of the state.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
Well, places like California and New York, they're guaranteed 50% match when their average income is way higher than a state like Mississippi or Alabama or things like that. So we should do it based on real income levels. Then the other thing you have to do is you have to fix the delivery system.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
You shouldn't say, oh, for the exact same procedure, I'll pay you more in an inpatient setting than an outpatient setting. So there are so many ways to reduce the cost. Now, we clearly shouldn't be covering people here illegally, all right? And then, so you gotta have a work requirement. You gotta have skin in the game. We've gotta make this a program that you have to work to get this.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
You don't get it just because you don't feel like going to work. So there's a lot of money. There's a lot of money to be saved in the Medicaid program. And actually, when I was governor, I told, Trump was president the last few years of his government. I said, if you give us, if you give us and allow us to spend the money the way we want to spend the money, you don't have to give us as much money.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
We will be able, you have so many foolish rules that I have to comply with that cause the cost of Medicaid to go up. And so if you got rid of those rules, I could drive down the cost of Medicaid for the state and ultimately for the federal government.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
OK, Charlie, I'm hopeful. I'm hopeful. I'm responsible for the Wednesday lunch. I brought in an individual here in Bragdon last week. He came in and explained all the different ways that we could save money on the Medicaid program. I'm optimistic. It starts with the House, so we'll see what they're going to do. They're not going to do it this week now. They're going to do it next week.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
But we have to do this. We have to do this. Our interest rates are not coming down. Inflation is not coming down. And we're allowing people to take advantage of the program that's not fair to the American public that's out there working every day.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Our Borders are Closed, and Alcatraz is Reopening
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
Thanks, Charlie. Thanks for having us on. Yeah, I know, you know, we got together last time in July at the Believer's Summit, and it was just such a great event. That was the one I think a lot of people saw that President Trump was on, made the comments about challenging Christians to get out there and vote, that he needed their vote.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
that got a lot of play, I know, on a lot of the different networks, which is great. But yeah, we were able to be at that conference, meet a lot of great people, a lot of great young Americans, and the results for us are great.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
We had, if you can believe it, within a month after that conference, we had about 95 zip codes adopted for Saturate USA, which accounts for about 575,000 people that were shared the gospel. So great stuff. Love you guys. Love the Believer Summit that we had and excited to
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
continue to work and partner with you guys on getting the word out about Jesus Christ and sharing the gospel with people in the United States.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
Well, definitely, Charlie, you know, COVID was tough because obviously the government was keeping people from meeting in churches. And so that's a very tough thing. But since then, I think we're seeing a huge revival in people's values, wanting to get back to Christian values, understanding that that's where we need to be as a country. And so we've seen huge numbers.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
We've actually had, on a guesstimate, there's about 120 million households in the United States. We've had 53 million adopted already over the last four to five years. And it's been incredible. We see churches going out there every day, sharing the gospel in their neighborhoods.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
And the whole premise of Saturate USA is not to uplift some organization, but really to get the churches back out in the community. And my personal opinion, as we've seen what's happened in the election here in November, was I think that we're seeing that people are realizing that we've got to get back to some truth. We've got to get back, as Musk said, about caring.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
We've got to get back to, you know... the values that are there in our country. It's not just about how you feel. There is a right and wrong, and we believe that's very clear in the gospel message of Jesus Christ. And so we are seeing that uptick. And the hope is, I think as a country, is as we get back to more values of
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
of biblical values, I think then our values as it pertains to family, as it pertains to, uh, to, uh, politics, all it changes as well. And I, and I think that's, I think the American people have made a pretty strong case for that in the last election. As you look at the things that Trump, uh,
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
went on and then the reaction and the numbers as you see polls with people really caring about their community and so forth. And then I think with Christianity, a lot of times when things get tough, which we know, man, they were really tough there for four years under Biden, that people rely on prayer. They rely on their neighbors. They rely on help.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
And that's where the church can jump in and just help people out so much.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
Pretty simple, Charlie. What we ask people to do is get out there and either through individuals, through through churches to go out and spread the gospel through their neighborhoods. Basically, we provide them a packet. We call them saturate packets. They have a DVD with online streaming capacities to look at the Jesus film in over 1,800 different languages.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
It has Magdalena as well, which is a movie about her, and it's a great movie for inner city people. And then the last one would be Jesus Film for Children, which is pretty self-explanatory. Those are provided on the DVD, but really are provided streaming-wise for free for people. And then the last thing in there, there's a booklet. It's called, Do You Want to Know God Personally?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
And it's a very simple way to lead people through accepting Christ as their Lord and Savior. The last thing we ask then for the people to do is to put in local church information in the packet. The goal is to get these people in their neighborhoods to be connecting with each other, with their neighbors, and then getting them into our local churches because that's where we need them to be.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
And so the impact's been incredible. We have, like I said, had over 53 million homes adopted. And people are going out with these packets with their church information in. They are walking the streets. They're praying for houses as they do it. And they're putting these packets either in hand by knocking on the door, but most people leave them on the door and then follow up weeks later.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
And we have seen church after church after church have huge impacts in sharing the gospel in their community, helping people in need. and getting out there and doing that. And, you know, it's pretty amazing. You know, as I drive down my neighborhood, I don't know half the people in there, but I should, I should be sharing with the people in my neighborhood.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
I should be having community with them because if I'm doing that, then the values I have, they're going to know them and I might be able to impact them in greater ways. Not only with their faith, but with politics and all those kind of things. And so it's really simple. You go out to saturateusa.org.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
You fill out a form that takes about 10 seconds, and one of our representatives will call you and get you set up. The key to this, Charlie, is everything is 100% free. There's no charge. We ship for free. Usually it takes about two to three weeks to get the materials. If we need to expedite that, we can. But the whole process is free, and the goal is to share the gospel with our neighbors.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
Yeah, so I mean, we have anywhere from, I know a couple in Denver, Colorado that has done, if you can imagine, over about 25,000 homes. And they've been doing that for the last year. They go out on Saturdays and spend an hour or two walking, doing this on their free time. We've had churches that do weekend events where they get 100 to 150 volunteers, and they'll do 15,000 in a Saturday.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
But as you can think, depending on your neighborhood and how spread out homes are and how well walking, I mean, high school kids can do phenomenal things. I've seen youth groups do a couple thousand in an hour. But it's very simple. You basically do it in your time when you want to do it and in whatever way you want.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
We're more than happy as an organization to tell you best practices or give you information and connect you with other churches that have done it. But the key is, is it's done in your time and it can be done at your speed when you want to do it and so forth. We are doing a special thing where we're really trying to do a big push for Easter.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
We would love to get 2 million homes adopted in the next month or so so that we could have a big push before Easter. I think Easter is always a great time for the church to get people to come to church and to get involved in church. in their communities. So that's one of the things, but the website is saturateusa.org. There's a two minute video you can watch.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
It explains the whole process to you in detail. And then, like I said, there's a, there's a form you fill out. It takes about 10 seconds and we will have someone call you and get you guys going on it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
Thank you, Charlie. Have a great one.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
I want to introduce Marco yesterday. I said one of the benefits of you getting nominated to be Secretary of State is I finally get to be the senior senator. So I spoke to him. Actually, he's gotten appointed. I just spoke to her. I've already spoken to her a couple of times. I just got off the phone with her. She's going to come up this weekend.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
So I'll be meeting with her and doing everything I can to help her get acclimated and get started quickly. She's been a successful attorney general in Florida for six years. He took over after Pam Bondi. She's done put a lot of effort in it to try to hold the Biden administration accountable. So I think she's going to be a good colleague to work with.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
Well, so Pam Bondi was outstanding. I had the opportunity. She's a good friend. As you know, I had the opportunity to introduce her yesterday at the Judiciary Committee. And she did a great job. She's somebody that's smart, hardworking. She's going to try to bring respect back to the Department of Justice.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
She's not going to play this lawfare gotcha, what the Biden administration, the Obama administration did. So I think she's going to do a really good job. And she did a fabulous job yesterday. Marco Rubio, of course, Foreign Relations, I also had the opportunity to introduce him. He did a great job, as you know. He's very knowledgeable on foreign relations.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
And I think what he wants to do is bring the Secretary of State's office back to the importance that it should have in deciding foreign policy in this country. So Pete Hedgeseth did a great job at Armed Services. So I'm on that committee. He did a great job. Here's what I like about Pete. He's a warrior.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
Like my father did all four, there's only 3,000 people did all four combat jumps with the AC and airborne during the second world war. All right. I respect and admire those people. They know where the problems are. They know what the warfighter needs. That's where Pete is. He fought, he served in Afghanistan and he served in Iraq. He knows what the warfighter needs.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
That's what we ought to be doing. So I think he's going to do a great job. He will be confirmed. I don't know how many Democrats are going to vote for him. I don't know how many Democrats will vote for Pam Bondi. but they're going to be confirmed. Hopefully, we'll get them confirmed quickly.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
John Thune has committed to have an aggressive process to try to get all these confirmations done as quickly as possible. It appears that Chuck Schumer and the Democrats are going to try to slow down as much as possible, which makes no sense. Donald Trump was elected president. He won a big win. He won the popular vote. You should help them get their team together.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
And by the way, if his team does not do a good job, there's elections in two years. Help them get their team together. Democrats should not be fighting us on this. And then let them go do their job. And if they don't do a good job, the public has the opportunity to vote in two years and not elect Republicans again.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
There's a commitment by our leadership. Sooner or Thun has made a commitment that we're going to do this as quickly as possible. I think all of us are going to do everything we can to get them done. So the only the only it's not going to be us slowing this down this time. It's clearly going to be that we're going to stay here.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
We're going to work if we need to through the weekends to get things done. It'll be we'll see how much the Democrats want to slow it down. It takes a certain number of hours of debate for every one of the cabinet members. So if they make us use up all that time, then we'll all be sitting here, including the Democrats. So I think we're doing the right thing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
And I think we need to say to ourselves, we should be clearly no worse than the pace of when Obama got his cabinet put together. And I think that should be our standard. And I know that's exactly what we're demanding right now. And hopefully that's what we'll get.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
So what will happen is as soon as Donald Trump is sworn in, then he'll sign the nomination letters. and send them back over here. We will have our committee votes to confirm them out of committee as quickly as possible, as many as we can get done that day. And then we'll start the process. Now, the Democrats can slow us down.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
They can make us take 30 hours of Senate hours, basically for each of these cabinet members. So we'll see if that's what they do. If you go back to Barack Obama, I can't remember, but he got many confirmed his first day. They didn't work to help Trump in 2017. Hopefully, you know, they'll work to get some of these done. I don't know how. Marco Rubio is going to get almost every vote, I assume.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
I think there's going to be a lot of people that they're all going to vote. I think you're right. We're going to get these people. They should get done immediately, within hours after Trump is sworn in.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
Well, what you need is you need national defense done as quickly as possible. Number one, things you ought to be doing. So we need to get Secretary of Defense done. We need to get Marco Rubio done. We need to get Tulsi Gabbard done. So Pete had a great hearing. I think it's very difficult to vote against him. I don't know how the Democrats are going to do, but that should happen very quickly.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
Marco should happen hopefully within hours. But after that, we need the attorney general done. Pam Bondi did a great job at her hearing. She was outstanding. She doesn't take any gut from anybody. So hopefully those get done. We need to have Russ Vogt approved. He's going to be management budget. Tulsi Gabbard.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
Tulsi, I assume they're going to make her life miserable for a while like they did Pete's for a while. What the Democrats do, they do smear campaigns. But these are great nominees. These are hardworking Americans. These are people that are going to change the direction. So Kash Patel, they're going to go after, if you look at history, they're going to go after Kash
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
But look at, I mean, look at who they're replacing. Christopher Wray, who's clearly, you know, was lawful against Trump. Merrick Garland. And look at how General Austin ran the Secretary of Defense. And by the way, twice within six months, he was, you know, AWOL. I mean, he was in the hospital and didn't tell people. So, I mean, that's a violation of law.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
And of course, Biden did nothing about it. We just found out yesterday.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
So it really matters if the public is vocal about what they expect. Donald Trump won. He won big. You need to do The public needs to do whatever they can to let their senators know it is very important to be very helpful to Donald Trump to get his agenda done. The more active you are, the better chance it'll get done. I love it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
We're going to. See you, Charlie.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: Heavy Tongue's Got Bad Judgement (feat. Jamal Crawford)
Hey guys, it's Scott on a mobile car phone. My hot take is that Paul Skeens and Libby Dunn in a doubles tennis match versus only Anthony Davis. Anthony Davis wins that every day of the week. I'll hang up and listen.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: Heavy Tongue's Got Bad Judgement (feat. Jamal Crawford)
We've all seen him run. Stop calling Tom Brady the greatest athlete ever.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Sure, Dan, thanks for having me and it has been a surreal few days. I've covered healthcare for more than 10 years and this still feels kind of like the biggest moment on the beat in a lot of ways and because largely of that public reaction that you described. You know, it's been like yesterday, Es ist in einer Art schmerzhaft.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Gestern, als wir erfahren haben, dass sein Name Luigi war, sah ich die Anti-Italien-Memes und die, die die italienischen Stereotypen benutzen. Ich dachte, meine Frau hat den Namen Campanella genannt und sie fühlten sich absurd. Es war also sicher, zu lachen. Aber es gab noch einen anderen Tweet, den ich über den Wochenende gesehen habe, der das seltsame Headspace that I find myself in.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
And this was after the backpack was found in Central Park with the monopoly money in it. And it was before he was identified, obviously. And he was sort of at the height of his mystery and public appeal, if we want to call it that. And this tweet said it's like this guy is like cigarette smoking. He's not going to be good for us in the long term.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
But in the short term, he is he's making this look cool. Und ich glaube, das hat die kontradiktorischen Gefühle, die ich in der öffentlichen Antwort bekommen habe, aufgeführt. Aber ich habe auch mich selbst gefühlt. Denn auf der einen Seite, nicht um ein Verbrecher zu sein, aber ich glaube, dass das menschliche Leben wert ist. Und das Verbrechen über Mörder macht mich nicht zufrieden.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Aber auf der anderen Seite, als jemand, der für mehr als zehn Jahre im Krankenhaus gesetzt wurde, verstehe ich, warum die Leute so wütend sind. Ich kenne die vielen Wege, in denen das Gesundheitssystem Menschen überlässt. Und ich weiß, dass die Steuern für Menschen wirklich hoch sind, wenn sie durch diese Erfahrungen gehen.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Wenn du in einer ernsthaften medizinischen Situation bist, dann ist das einer der größten Wartezeiten deines Lebens. Also habe ich versucht, beide dieser Ideen zu halten und das so unnötig in meinem Kopf zu halten, während der letzten paar Tage.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Ich denke, dass das in einer Art verbunden ist mit Trends, die außerhalb des Gesundheitskerns sind, in Bezug auf das Schreckliche, das wir in der öffentlichen Gesellschaft und in unserer Gesellschaft in diesen Tagen sehen. Ich denke, dass die Internet uns mehr komfortabler macht, vielleicht Dinge zu sagen, die wir nicht sagen wollen, wie polizistische Gespräche.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Aber in Bezug auf das Gesundheitssystem selbst, Die Menschen wurden von den Gesundheitsversicherern verabschiedet, besonders wenn man sich an die Tage vor dem Affordable-Care-Akt erinnert. Die Menschen wurden von der Aufmerksamkeit verurteilt, weil sie krank waren, oder weil sie kriminelle Pflegekräfte hatten, und sie wurden einfach verurteilt.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Und auch heute, nachdem die ACA für mehr als 10 Jahre geschlossen worden ist, gibt es noch mehr Voraussetzungen, z.B. für Menschen mit vorhandenen Bedingungen. Die Gesundheitsversicherer sind immer noch zu anderen Heizungen eingegangen. Die Menschen in der Regel fühlen sich, als wären die Kosten der Gesundheitsversicherung zu hoch. Und das, worüber ich mich hier denke, ist,
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
In a way, I'm not surprised that it was sort of a health insurance executive that was targeted. Because I feel like health insurers are the easy villain in our very screwed up healthcare system. Because it's sort of like, what do they do? But at the same time, I know, because I have been covering this for so long, that everybody bears some of the blame.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
I'm curious, it seems like we crossed a threshold here, where...
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Ja, und das ist das Paradoxische an diesem Moment. Es fühlt sich so an, als wäre etwas passiert. Diese Live-Nerve hat sich ausgeschlossen und wir müssen die Schmerzen, die das gebrochene Gesundheitssystem in unserer Gesellschaft in die Füße gebracht hat, beobachten. Aber ich weiß nicht, was wir damit tun.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
In Bezug auf die Politik haben wir eine neue Administration, einen neuen Kongress, der nächstes Jahr vorliegt. Ich bin mir sicher, dass sie sich auf die Pflegepolitik konzentrieren werden. Werden sie große Krack-downs auf private Gesundheitsversicherer vorlegen, die die Republikaner im Allgemeinen generell eher favorieren? Ich weiß es nicht.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Die Gespräche darüber, wie man Dinge in der Pharma- und der Krankenhäuser-Systeme ändern kann, sind noch schwieriger. Teil der Grund, warum ich denke, dass die Gesundheitsversicherer, zu Ihrem Punkt, Es gibt so viel Aufmerksamkeit und so viel Betreuung, wie ich es vorhin gesagt habe, es ist so, was macht ihr denn wirklich? Ihr verwendet nur Geld. Ihr kümmert euch nicht um jemanden.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Ihr schafft keine neuen Ressourcen, die die Leben der Menschen retten werden. Es ist eine Mafia.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Richtig. Und ich meine, das ist das, worauf ich mich gesteigert habe in der Vergangenheit. Es gab in den letzten Berichten über Gesundheitsversicherer, die mit AI-begriffen Algorithmen herausgefunden haben, wie man die Befugnisse von Menschen verurteilen kann.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Im Grunde genommen, mit all den Werkzeugen, die sie haben, mit denen dieser Typ vermutlich bekannt war, wenn du die Berichte über die Worte auf den Bullen gesehen hast. Und ja, es ist wie, weißt du,
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
One thing that's really interesting, if you look at the polling data about people's experience with health insurance in the US, is by and large, actually, and this does surprise me, Dan, I'll admit it, but it's true. Most people will basically say they're mostly happy with their healthcare plan.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
But the catch is, you have to remember, a lot of those people are probably not using their healthcare that much. They're going to the doctor once a year. Maybe they have one or two prescriptions, but they're not really using healthcare that much. So, eh, for them, it's fine.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Totally. And people think the system is broken. They think the quality of healthcare is getting worse. But let me just follow. The catch, I think, is really interesting. Und das ist wirklich zu Ihrem Punkt. Es ist, dass je mehr Menschen ihre Gesundheitsinsurance benutzen, desto höher ihre Medikamenten, desto weniger zufrieden sind sie.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Es ist also fast so, dass viele von uns in einer Verzweiflung leben, dass wir gute Gesundheitsinsurance haben, bis wir sie benutzen versuchen. Und dann erleben wir all die Probleme damit und es ist wirklich frustrierend und es macht uns wütend.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Und ich denke, das hat diese Attitüden geschaffen, wo die Leute denken, dass die Gesundheitshilfe nur 30 Prozent der amerikanischen Bevölkerung denken, dass das Gesundheitssystem insgesamt einen guten Job macht.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Und ja, wie du gesagt hast, die Anzahl der Menschen, die denken, dass sie hier in den Vereinigten Staaten gute Gesundheitshilfe bekommen, ist auf einem allzeit hohen Niveau, was eine wirklich schreckliche Sache ist, weil für alle ihre Probleme, wie Wenn man gute Gesundheitshilfe in den Vereinigten Staaten bekommt, bekommt man die beste Gesundheitshilfe in den Vereinigten Staaten.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Und das ist immer wahr. Und es bleibt immer wahr. Aber das Kaviar ist das ganze Problem. Wenn man es bekommt. Und zu viele Menschen können es nicht. Und es ist so teuer. Und deshalb sehen wir die Reaktion, die wir haben.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
I totally agree with you. If you read the piece I wrote last week, that was sort of my point. There's not even one industry to blame for all of our problems. I'll read it for you. I'll read it right now.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Das ist eine tolle Frage, Dan. Und das ist etwas, mit dem Journalisten immer wieder Probleme haben, wenn es um so ein Schuss geht. Und ich werde mich verzeihen, wo ich gerade bin, ist, dass er klar nicht genau das typische Profil hat, das man von einem Schützern erwarten würde. Aber wenn ich ehrlich bin, versuche ich mir zu erinnern, dass sein Mindset immer ein bisschen unverzichtbar für uns ist.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Selbst wenn wir seine Frustrationen mit dem Gesundheitssystem verstehen können, Du hast keinen normalen Tag, wenn du jemanden in der Mitte von New York City schießt. Es gibt einen Punkt, an dem ich denke, ich weiß nicht, wie sehr ich mich um seine individuelle Meinung kümmere.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Was mir interessant ist, ist diese öffentliche Reaktion und was sie über die Fehler des Gesundheitssystems zeigt, über unsere Frustrationen damit. Ich bin mir sicher, dass es ein Manifesto geben wird. Die Leute werden sich über das interessieren. Es wird interessant sein, die Details zu hören. wenn es eine bestimmte Situation gab, die ihn auf diesen Weg gebracht hat.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Aber ich versuche, zurückzusteigen und zu erinnern, du wirst niemals in den Kopf einer Person sein, die das gemacht hat. Und an einem bestimmten Punkt ist es nötig, es zu versuchen. Und es ist besser, auf das zu reflektieren, was das über uns alle sagt.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Ich meine, ich bin in die Saison eingegangen, mit Verzweiflung. Letztes Jahr war es so, dass man einfach die Boxen beobachtet hat. Wir sind in die zweite Runde gekommen, wir sahen okay gegen Boston aus, weil wir verletzt waren, aber das war es. Also, ich war, du weißt, der Winstreak, um die Saison zu starten, ich war begeistert, es war großartig. Ich denke, Mobley hat, wie gesagt,
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Es ist nicht so, als wäre er ein Offensiv-Engine, aber wenn er kompensierter ist, wenn er die Drei auf einen guten Klick schafft und ein bisschen Spielmacht macht, dann macht das ein ganz neues Level für das Team. Und ich werde sagen, ihr werdet es wohl genießen. Ich weiß, dass jeder Kenny Atkinson freut. Ich freue mich auf Kenny Atkinson.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Aber ich denke, dass die Tatsache, dass die Verteidigung gehalten wurde, ein bisschen ein Kredit an JB Bickerstaff ist.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
It's just a step, I think.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
No, there's no hop. It's not a mini leap. Is it a jump? He's up a couple points per game. Is it a jump?
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
That's right. You know what? That was Hulk Hogan a little bit. Come on, people.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
Awful.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Hour 2: America's Fascination With Luigi Mangione (Feat. Dylan Scott)
It was not awful, it was good. It did great.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
Don't tell them.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
My girl. Yeah. Yeah. Fan might be a little bit of a strong word, but you are absolutely right that I was somewhat sympathetic to her original campaign when she came on the scene to run for attorney general. She was actually sort of theoretically the moderate in the race.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
And she was being attacked by right wingers who thought she was unqualified for, among other reasons, being divorced and not having children. Yeah. So they didn't think she lived up to the family values. And I was, you know, I wrote a couple of pieces, you know, what the hell's wrong with you? And they went after her for petty things like that.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
But as you mentioned, I got to know her a little bit to the extent that even when she was on her campaign, during the campaign and struggling a bit, she was prepping for a national appearance on Fox News. And she called me to help her prep for her appearance, which I would not normally have done except it was about a crusade of wrongful convictions.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
I was willing to talk to anybody who would listen. Pam Bondi swore she wanted to be prepped so that if she got elected attorney general, she could right these wrongs and open new investigations. That's not how it panned out. What was this story, incidentally?
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
there it's a complicated one but there's a string of convictions in brevard county whenever the cops were sure that somebody had done something wrong and i say sure they believed somebody had done something wrong and they couldn't prove it they brought in this dog handler and this dog handler and his magical dog would would be able to allegedly trace sense through water through rivers
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
across streets years later. And then they would use this dog handler's testimony to convict people. Anyway, DNA ultimately proved that the guy was full of baloney. A judge called the dog in. He couldn't pick out a ham bone from a Lego. They got a bloodhound and put him in court? Absolutely.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
the dog got exposed for being a fraud the dog handler and the dog got exposed for being a fraud that proved that two of these guys were wrongfully convicted but the dog handler helped convict like 12 people so i was one of a lot of people that said hey maybe we should look at all these cases uh back in those days this was in like 2010 Geraldo was actually, you know, the Fox News host.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
He was big on this case, as I think anybody would, saying we need to investigate this. He invited Pam on the show. And then basically you could tell the setup here. It was like if Pam Bondi promised to investigate these cases, she was going to get Geraldo's endorsement and a lot of fawning coverage from Fox News. But she didn't know crap about the story.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
So she called to ask me and I said, well, you know what, if you're going to vow, it's not to help your campaign, but if you're going to vow to Pursue justice. I'll help get you briefed. I did. She promised Geraldo she'd investigate. She promised me. She promised all the Fox viewers. And she did absolutely none of that.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
Absolutely, absolutely. And first of all, I think one thing that a lot of people may not realize is Trump University, in case they do not know, is not an actual university. It's a university in the same way like Burger King is actual royalty. It is not.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
In fact, that German shepherd is a professor at Trump University. Touche. Yeah, so Trump University was like, you pay, I forget, $5,000, $10,000, whatever bucks is, and you learn how to get rich. And people who came through this, you will be shocked to learn a lot of them said they paid a bunch of money and did not, in fact, get rich.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
And a number of them said they did not gain anything from paying all this money. So basically, to cut a long story short, people filed complaints. They said they were defrauded, and they did so in two states mainly. One was in Florida, and one was in New York.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
In New York, the attorney general went after it gangbusters, pursued it, quickly turned up evidence that they proved they believed it was a fraud, and netted a $25 million settlement for the people who were defrauded. Here in Florida... where Pam Bondi was attorney general, that did not happen.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
Instead, what happened was the Trump Foundation cut Pam Bondi a check for $25,000 three days after we wrote that her office was considering whether to investigate Trump University. And then she did nothing, absolutely nothing, did not investigate at all. And the folks in Florida got nothing. after which Donald Trump threw her a fundraiser, I believe, at Mar-a-Lago. Well, yes, he did.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
And by the way, Pam loves fundraisers because one of my other favorite stories for her is this woman wants to kill everybody. Executions are her thing. That's her jam. She gets her rocks off on executions, except for there was one time during her tenure where one execution that had been long awaited got postponed and nobody could figure out like what happened.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
They've been waiting family 15 years for this thing. Turned out Pam had a scheduling conflict. She'd scheduled a fundraiser for herself on the same night as the execution. So she called the governor and asked if he could postpone the killing so that she could have her party.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
Oh, shit. Oh, my gosh. She's not even blonde. So she's probably more qualified to be Surgeon General than this state's Surgeon General. But yeah, what is this?
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
What is I see her sailing? In fact, one of the best things that probably could have happened to Pam Bondi was Matt Gates. I mean, next to Matt Gates, she looks like Clarence freaking Darrow. She's like the most skilled surgeon. attorney in the history of the United States. But this is not an honest person. And I can say I don't throw that accusation out lightly.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
I mean, the reason she's there, as you may remember, she said before she wanted Donald Trump to prosecute the prosecutors. She has already clearly said what she wants to do as attorney general. And then when asked by these senators if she prejudged any of these things, she said, no, well, I don't know whether you were lying before or you were lying now.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
Actually, I do have a pretty good feeling for which time you were. But those are two completely different things. And that is why she's being nominated, because she vowed to prosecute the prosecutors.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
Easy read. Yeah. For a woman who lays or what is it? I lay around a lot. Yeah.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
You are my audience then.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
#BecauseMiami: Publicly Financed Stadiums on Strawberry Fields
Yeah!
The Deck
Agustin Chacon (King of Clubs, Texas) & Marshall McCarthy (5 of Hearts, Texas)
She absolutely broke down. I do know that. Aunt Wilma had a tough, tough time with that. He was her only child, and that's the worst part of the whole thing, really, what it did to her heart.
The Deck
Agustin Chacon (King of Clubs, Texas) & Marshall McCarthy (5 of Hearts, Texas)
Even if whoever did it, if they're gone now, just to know this is who it was. You know, I realize this many years later, you know, a lot of the actors may have passed away. But just to know, hey, this is who did it. And hopefully my woman in heaven will know because I know that bug hurt her the day she died. Her heart was broken over that. That was in her mind until the day she died.
The Deck
Agustin Chacon (King of Clubs, Texas) & Marshall McCarthy (5 of Hearts, Texas)
He was kind of a wild child. He ran his own path, I guess is the best way to put it. He was really a nice person. He was caring, especially caring towards his family. He wasn't loud. He wasn't boisterous. He didn't rant and rave about this, that, and the other. He was just a pretty chill guy, really and truly.
The Ramsey Show
Money Stress Isn’t Always About Money
Yeah, I've loaned $80,000 to my cousin for his house flipping business through multiple notarized promissory notes over the last four years. I received that $80,000 back, but none of the $45,000 in interest. My cousin recently informed me that his business is in trouble. He lives four hours away, has four kids, a rocky marriage, and other debt, so he's not rich to say the least.
The Ramsey Show
Money Stress Isn’t Always About Money
He now won't return any of my calls or texts, and I sought some legal counsel, and all of the notes have a confession of judgment clause, so legally we're good even to not go to court to get a judgment, so that's in my favor. That side of the family has a lot of crazy in it to the extent that one individual is a a little crazy, a little dangerous to be around.
The Ramsey Show
Money Stress Isn’t Always About Money
Personally, my wife and I are in baby step seven. We have four kids, two high-stress jobs, an extremely active social life in our church. So part of me says, just let this go and go focus on your life. But another part of me says, go get the money that you've earned in interest, especially since he won't call you back.
The Ramsey Show
Money Stress Isn’t Always About Money
I feel like I've let my wife down on this decision, even though we haven't really lost any money. I'm just wondering what path should I go down and how do I emotionally accept that path?
The Ramsey Show
Money Stress Isn’t Always About Money
It's kind of where I thought I was, but the whole, like, just not calling and texting back after like a four year relationship where we had a great back and forth and, you know, money was exchanged both ways and. Um, things felt very comfortable and then, you know, all of a sudden it was just like, okay, it's, it's gone.
The Ramsey Show
Money Stress Isn’t Always About Money
Yeah, agreed. I would say we didn't have a whole lot of relationship even before that, considering we were just four hours away. Not a strong relationship, but it's just a strange situation because of how great things were going for four years and even talking together about projects that he was working on, and then it's just all gone.
The Ramsey Show
Money Stress Isn’t Always About Money
If he just did bad deals or what? Same story that Dave always talks to, right? He had a partner. The partner skipped town. The whole business was on him, and he couldn't keep the whole business afloat. So, you know, went from being very profitable over four years to, you know, taking a step back over the last, like, 18 months or so.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
It was myself and my best friend at the time, and Chad. And they were cleaning up the cellar for his birthday. Oh, you were there, too. Yeah, we were in the kitchen cooking sausage. Yeah, we were cooking dinner. But they were downstairs cleaning, and I was upstairs. My mother had just left, and me and Corey were upstairs cooking dinner, and they came up for a break, went into the room.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
And we heard like a little firecracker go off, you know. And then the person came out of the room. He had blood on his hands. He's, you know, freaking out. I shot Chad. I shot Chad.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
So I called 9-1-1, and I paged my mother and said, You know, then the police got there.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
This was my first tattoo. I got the comedy and tragedy faces with the In Memory of Chad banner. And that was my first tattoo. And I got that, you know, for the obvious reason. That's pretty much the family symbol now. You know, it started off with my father getting it. Because this was the tattoo he wanted to get, you know, without the banners. But that's what he wanted to get.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
That's what he planned on getting the following year for his birthday. I mean, he already had it planned out, you know. And so my father came home with it one day, and he got it. And you and your dad, though, aren't the only... No, there's me and my father, Steve Prisbian, Mike Richburg, who still works here. My grandmother has the sad face.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
Yeah, she has it on her chest, too. And Eric Marwick, who worked here, has it also. And it's good. It's nice to see people. There's probably altogether 15 people that have his name tattooed on them. We used to sit around the kitchen table and take a needle and wrap thread around it and dip it in calligraphy ink and tattoo each other with it.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
And there's quite a few people who we masterfully tattooed Chad's name on their arm, whether they like it now or not. It's still there.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
You know, but that's how it was when it happened. I mean, you didn't know what to do. I had no idea what to do. I walked in the bathroom, I look in the mirror and I'm staring at myself in the mirror and I flipped out and started punching the mirror. So now both my hands are cut and I'm bleeding all over the place and sitting on the floor crying. I have no idea why.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
You know, when you're that old and something like that happens, you don't have any idea what to do in any circumstance. You know, walking across the bridge, looking down. Yeah, maybe. You sit there and think about it for a few minutes. It takes a lot out of you. It takes a lot out of your mind. And counseling made it worse for a while.
Will & Rusty's Playdate
official ins and outs of 2025
Wir sind eingeschlafen und wir haben Bagel-Bitte gemacht. Und er wusste es klar. Aber er hat mir nicht für einen Moment gesagt. Das ist lustig. Speaking of Gavin McHugh, we haven't, we haven't, about earlier, I wanted to tell this story.
Will & Rusty's Playdate
official ins and outs of 2025
Alright guys, we are here to tell you about one of our new favorite partners, Dollar Shave Club. Guys, it is no surprise that facial hair is personal.
Will & Rusty's Playdate
official ins and outs of 2025
We're going to hear your pitches followed by our pitches. And then we're going to do everyone's favorite segment. This guy rocks. This guy rocks. This guy rocks today.
Will & Rusty's Playdate
official ins and outs of 2025
So, my pitch... Rookie pitch. We've all done this.
Will & Rusty's Playdate
official ins and outs of 2025
Alright. Should we do this guy rocks, this guy rocks, this guy rocks today.
Will & Rusty's Playdate
official ins and outs of 2025
I want one of those. I was about to say, I want a housemaker.