Scott
Appearances
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
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Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And that is we're going to have minimum wage of $50 an hour for everybody who works with us on a contract basis or part-time or is paid hourly. And we're going to have a minimum annual compensation, including bonus, of $100,000 a year. And why are we going to do this? Because we can. And we make really good money. And I make a shit ton of money.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And if I make a shit ton of money minus a half a million dollars a year, that's okay. But what's going to happen to the second Ferrari?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Yeah, the thing about for me getting a Ferrari is that my dick is too big. But anyways, if you're a company like WME or on a much, much smaller scale, Profiting Media... Ari, you don't need a second billion. It's not going to make you any fucking happier, boss. You know what's going to make you happier is helping people move out of their car if they make a bad decision.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
You know, my question to the senior manager at WME is, given your blessings and your strength and your skills, are you protecting and providing for your professional family? I mean, are you really protecting them? Are you really providing for them?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And the senior level people will be fine, but it's the people at the lower end or the people in the engine room you probably don't have a lot of contact with. Are you really acting like a man? Is that what it means to be a man, to extract enormous economic benefit without protecting and providing for the people who are not as fortunate or don't have face time with you?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Anyways, I'm all riled up about this. And if anyone wants to turn this into an original series, call my agent at CAA. Love you guys. But my agents are nice. If my agents weren't in charge, they wouldn't put up with this shit.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Today's number 116. That's the percentage increase in egg interceptions by customs at the U.S.-Mexico border in the first two months of this year. Ed, true story. I was at a farm and I hurt my ass. I didn't know whether to see the proctologist or a vet.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Yeah, something about billionaires that don't pay their people kind of chafes me. But anyways, I don't know the guy. I don't know the guy. He's obviously very successful, brilliant agent. But what's the point? What's the point of all the success? Anyways, thank you for my virtue signaling moment.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
This is an amazing brand, amazing human capital. I imagine they have incredible retailer relationships around the world. It's a global brand. It's still arguably, I would imagine, one of the 20 best brands. I don't know. This feels like an activist to me because it feels like someone's going to show up with $1 billion to $3 billion in stock.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And say, we're here, we're going to give Elliot, the new CEO, a chance to do his thing for a year. But if it doesn't work, we want to see pretty serious cost cutting. But I like the company. I would consider actually investing here.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
So there's a few things that are optimistic and pessimistic. The first is just on a brand level, when you get to the level of ubiquity of Nike and you're basing it on High margin, which is Latin for being more attractive to mates or self-expressive benefit or making people feel closer to God.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
It's very hard to maintain that margin and brand power because the moment your mom shows up with Nikes, you're no longer interested in wearing Nikes as the 19-year-old kid. And basically, most of fashion is dictated by a young aspirational male or female. And so generally speaking, these companies that are really brand-driven, they have trouble getting above, say, $5, $7, $10 billion.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And Nike was able to do it. Fiscal year 2024, it got to $50 billion. But at some point, if everyone was wearing Van Cleef, you would find that other competitors would come in. People look at this as self-expressive benefit. And once every kid in high school is wearing Nikes, kids go, I don't want Nike. I want to express my differentiation.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
I didn't put the bestiality in there. I should have gone simpler. I have a dildo farm. Unfortunately, it was taken over by squatters. Jesus Christ, you're literally low IQ with my porn jokes.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And what Hermes has done is they've said, okay, it's not about volume. It's about scarcity, the illusion of scarcity. I remember I was buying a Kelly bag for someone in my life, and they acted it as if it was an act of God to get me this fucking bag. And I'm like, okay, it's such manufactured scarcity.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
These are not difficult items to manufacture, but they're really smart because they know if these things become in any way – I don't even become – I won't even say they won't even become ubiquitous, but become even ever-present or common – They're done. They can't charge $18,000 for a bag that probably costs $1,200 to produce.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
It is difficult for a company like Nike to maintain the growth expectations the street wants from them while maintaining that sense of aspiration and exclusivity. So that's the bad news. The things they have for them or that Elliott has going for them is, one, he has cloud cover to do the very ugly and hard work of cutting costs like a madman right now. He can pretty much do whatever he wants.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
He's brand new. The board is going to give him at least two or three years to try and do his thing, probably longer. He has cloud cover to cut costs.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
He's probably gonna have to reconfigure the approach to marketing because if you think about what's changed, their core competence was they were smart enough to get very tightly integrated with, I think it was Whedon Kennedy, and you could smell a Nike commercial coming on. Like in the first second, you're like, oh my God, this is a Nike commercial, pay attention. And the primary weapon
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
of branding, and that is great commercials and broadcast television, that weapon has become duller and duller and duller. And that is broadcast television is just no longer as effective because the most aspirational people who Nike wants wearing their shoes probably aren't watching a lot of commercials on broadcast television now. So they have had to kind of reinvent.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Now, have they been as good around influencer marketing, around supply chain? I don't know. But it's got to be heartbreaking for a lot of the people at Nike who have worked really hard, really good, very talented people, and they've made no money in terms of their equity value. over the last 10 years. If you started there 10 years ago, you haven't made it, unless maybe it's RSU, it's not options.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
But I would, again, I see more risk to the upside. And that is, I would feel fairly confident betting that the stock doubles from here in the next two to three years versus getting cut in half because the brand value is just so powerful. Anyways, Nike, just do it.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
That's because her prefrontal cortex, which is executive function and management ability and ability to interpret profanity, are 18 months ahead of yours. It'll catch up soon, though.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup. Episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube. By the way, I absolutely love Vivien too. I think she does a great job.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
No, no, no, no, no, no, no. No one needs to hear a guy my age explaining squatting and dildos.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
There you go, little soldier. You'll get there.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
I'm doing well. I'm excited about it. I'm taking my son on his college tour on Saturday. I'm excited about that. or what I call the places he won't get in. Where are you going? Can you share? We're going to Wisconsin. We're going to Illinois. We're going to Michigan. We're going to Virginia. We're going to... Massachusetts, New York, North Carolina. Wow.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
So as Germany goes, kind of so goes Europe, largest economy, about 4.6 or 4.7 trillion. I think the next biggest is the UK at about three and a half. If the US can't be counted on, In terms of resources for Ukraine, then EU gets to make a decision around how supportive or not supportive they are of Ukraine.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
There's very few things he listens to me about, and one of them is college. And I've said, just you got to trust me on this. You want the kind of, in my view, the big college, fall leaves, football games, fraternities, sororities experience. I just think it's incredibly singular. Does he agree? Yeah, he's kind of a mini-me. Angry, depressed. No, he really is sort of, we're very similar.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And that's largely, I think, going to be dictated not entirely, but substantively by Germany's approach or view on how supportive or not supportive they want to be. of Ukraine.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Could you attempt to distill for us the general feeling about the war in Ukraine and how resolute or how firmly behind Ukraine, Germany is or isn't, given the fact that Europe's now, I mean, I hate to say this, but more on their own than before in terms of support or lack thereof of Ukraine?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Prof G. Paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokered services for U.S. listed registered securities, options, and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. I should also disclose I am an investor in public.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And I feel as if I know him and he's... He's pretty social and smart and all that good stuff. So I think he would benefit from kind of a big land grant. Am I just trying to live? Am I like, have I become like Serena Williams' dad? Am I just living my life with my son right now? No, you are going to Michigan because I couldn't. Because I couldn't. Yeah, exactly.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
We should. Thank you for that, Ed. Well done.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Now is the time to fly. I hope you have plenty of the wherewithal.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
There's always a question as an American living in Europe that how come Europe hasn't been able to establish very many tech unicorns? If you look at the number of unicorns that have come on the scene, the proportion of them is actually still fixed in the U.S. It appears that the rise of China has come at the expense of Europe. And there's a lot of questions about culture. My thesis has always been
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
in Germany, because they do a pretty good job of creating on-ramps for, quite frankly, for young men into a decent middle-class life, even without a college degree, that the downside isn't as great, so people aren't as risk-aggressive. What do you see happening in the German tech sector? And I've met the CEO of a company called Salonis.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And I'm just curious what you think about software and the German tech environment.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
What's interesting is to think if they could do it all over, would they still be in this business? And they got into the content business when everyone, I feel as if Apple decides, okay, we need a call option. We needed a call option on the headsets. When meta was getting into them, we need a call option and content.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And I think that when you look at decisions, you have to look at it the way the military looks at it. And that is when they're reviewing an officer's decisions on the battlefield, they don't look at the outcomes. They look at given what he or she knew at that moment, was it the right decision?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And I think that figuring out quality content that maybe motivates people to continue to buy an iPhone over a Galaxy, you could see how they would justify it. And also, they have the capital to kind of go mostly toe-to-toe, and even they can't go toe-to-toe. I think they spend $4 or $5 billion a year on content, and Netflix is at $18 billion.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
I imagine the business plan didn't say in six years we'll still be losing a billion dollars. This is a different thing because Apple, a billion dollars is a lot of money for most people. It's not for Apple. It reported $94 billion in net income in its last fiscal year. And at average revenue of $800 per iPhone, Apple would need to sell one and a quarter million iPhones every year.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
So the question, the analysis they've done, I imagine, is... does this probably inspire another one and a quarter million people a year of their installed base? They sell 232 million iPhones globally in 2023. So can we get another half a percent either upgrade and not switch to Android or get an incremental half a percent because of the Apple TV offering.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Now, I don't think it's because you get – when I bought my iPhone, I think I got a free year of Apple TV+. I don't know if that even registers with people who are buying an iPhone. What I do think, though, is that what they have done a really good job of is
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
is they kind of took an HBO Plus approach to their content, and that is shows like Greyhound, Ted Lasso, and now Severance, and then The Morning Show, are of such incredible production quality that it feels very Apple-esque. I think their content is very on-brand.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
The question is, they went into a field that is too crowded, but for a billion dollars is the marketing halo of that amazing content almost like a marketing expense. What do you think?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
I don't on this side of it. I really like the folks at WME. I don't know Ari. I don't think I've ever met him. And Patrick Whitesell, I have met a couple times. He's got a central casting for what an agent should be. He's this tall, handsome guy who's very good at making you feel important.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Every time I've seen him, he comes up and he says, you know, big fan and super nice, super likable, like total kind of baller, impressive guy. Ari is an icon in the industry, very smart. And just so I can get fired by my agency, my general sense is this is financial engineering such that the top two or three guys can rape the company and its shareholders.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
They're part of the virus that infects American management where they see the company as a vehicle for them to vastly overpay themselves and to underpay people at the low end. The stock basically has underperformed the market. My guess is when it went public, he and Patrick got an enormous payday. And meanwhile, entry-level assistant pay at WME was raised from $15 to $18 an hour in 2020.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Well, that was big of them. roughly $37,000 a year and has not increased since. So I think this is a conspiracy between Silver Lake and the senior management to basically fuck shareholders and take advantage of a marketplace where a lot of people want to be in the great big business of Hollywood.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Buying a house has long been considered the best way to build wealth and move into true adulting.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
And I think it's insane that a company like this would pay anyone in the organization 15 or 18 bucks an hour. So does this make sense? I don't know. What's the rationale? Why did this make sense to go public? just a few years ago. And then why does it make sense to go private now, if not just to make the people in charge and some of the board members really fucking rich?
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
Okay, the handbag you can probably manage without. But what about a house? Surely that's actually good, right? We're going to find out this week on Explain It To Me. New episodes every Sunday morning, wherever you get your podcasts.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
I love what Sam Harris said, and that is, if you have economic security and people who love you, you have an obligation to speak the truth. And I love the people at WME. By the way, I don't even think it's just the junior people getting fucked here. I mean, the thing about tech, for all the shit we give tech, When they do really well, they generally share those spoils.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
So I would love to know, and I think a reasonable question is, if an assistant has been there, any employee been there longer than a year, are they making any money? Are they getting anything from this? And what I think, I'm not sure, but what I would imagine is that even mid-level and even senior agents there, they're not really participating in this payday.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
There needs to be a different zeitgeist in corporate America, where if you're blessed like these guys are, You share the wealth specifically with the lowest people. And let me – I never want to pass up a chance to virtue signal, but we've been talking at Prop G Media. You know, we're small. We're 18 people. But we make a really good living. And we do really well. We're blessed.
Prof G Markets
Unpacking Germany’s Historic U-Turn on Spending — ft. Carsten Brzeski
We're very good at what we do, but we're sort of in the right place at the right time, media, podcasting. We're drafting off of the monstrous talent of an aging professor. But the result is we have an exceptionally high margin, profitable little business. And so we've been talking about, and I think we're going to do this, going to what we call a maximum wage business.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
There's another family doing that. I'm trying to think of who that is. Another family that has a bunch of fucking idiot sons running his business while he's in government.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I actually read it differently in the sense that, okay, so we know what it means. We know the top decile are killing it and continue to have more money to invest and spend. But my understanding is the top 10% control 90 plus percent of the assets.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And if they're responsible for half the consumer economy, it means they're actually, and because they can, they're saving and investing a lot more than the bottom 90, right, as a percentage of their income. Right. And what would that mean? That would mean that luxury brands would do really well, high-end travel would do really well.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And for me, it's an argument for a more progressive tax structure where we put more money in the pockets of the bottom 90 because the wonderful thing about the lower and the middle classes is that, distinct to the moral argument of putting more money in their pockets— When you give them a dollar, they spend it. And there's a much greater multiplier for that.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
It's much more stimulative than when you put a dollar in the pocket. The Republicans have done a great job of convincing people that a dollar put in the hands of our most efficient or most productive, is what they refer to rich people, is that they invest it and grow the economy. And you do need some of that. You do need capital and people who invest and save and take risks.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
But we're long on risk capital. What we're short on is people who have money to spend and grow in the economy. And I think this is another example, as you said, of income inequality. But we're seeing, essentially, they're not spending nearly as much money as they have. And again, it's just another argument for more progressive tax structure.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I went shopping in Montclair with my kid last week. He's like, I need a ski jacket. I'm like, I'll take it to Montclair. I love the apparel and the fashion and skiing. I just don't like skiing much. Yes.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
It's a really good question, Ed, because unfortunately... Unless you have, I think a key cohort in history has been class traitors. And that is when Teddy Roosevelt was elected by the railroad barons, he immediately got into the White House and said, now I'm, thanks so much, I'm breaking you up. And they thought, wow, what a traitor or a turncoat.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
We put this guy in office, now he's breaking us up. And I think that where we really need some class traitors is among the 0.1 or the 1%. And that is, I think there's this unholy bargain between Trump and the Democratic Party and the 0.1%. And that is, okay, at dinner parties, you talk about income inequality, but you're not really willing to go aggressively.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
You'll still show up at his inauguration and be paraded around like some little bitch because under the auspices of shareholder value, you decide to totally ignore American values. And the reason why rich people are only giving kind of symbolic resistance here is because guess what, folks? We're getting richer and richer. And here's the thing about rights.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Everyone I know that I care about is gonna have rights. If shit ever gets real, I'll have the money and the liquidity and the Bitcoin or whatever it is I'll need to peace out to Dubai or Tel Aviv or Singapore or wherever I need to go.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Any takeaways from being... That's in Switzerland, right? I am officially done skiing. All I can think about, I get off the lift and all I think about is, this is definitely the run I'm tearing the other ACL. And then going to the hospital, catching pneumonia and dying. And then I wonder, and I think a lot about my funeral. That's just not how I want to go. Pneumonia from the torn ACL from Zermatt.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
If anybody I know becomes the target of some weird right-winger, I can lawyer up like no fucking tomorrow and then move to a country that doesn't have extradition treaties. I just... Money has now bought people rights.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
So when I'm in or rich people are in a beast of the summer partying on yachts and there's people, there's oligarchs from Russia, there's kids from the Gulf, and there's tech bros, everyone gets along and is civil with each other and talks about what a shame it is, but no one's actually really willing to get aggressive with their platform and speak up because here's the bottom line.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Our rights are portable. And for all the moaning, the fact, the unholy alliance here is Trump and along with the Democratic Party has said, even though there's a slow burn towards income inequality and now this escalation towards fascism, wink, wink, I'll make sure the rich are just fine. Guess what?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Jeff Bezos, when you're on your deathbed, you're not going to remember being worth $120 billion or $90 billion. You're going to remember what a fucking infidel you were to the American values that made you worth $120 billion.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I find this domino theory of cowardice amongst the rich is so incredibly disappointing because at the end of the day, they have opted for their wealth and they have the comfort of knowing that rights are a function of wealth. And to a certain extent for them, for the rich, it really doesn't matter what happens in America. And this is the unholy alliance. between our government and the 0.1%.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And unless the 0.1% decide to become class traitors and actually speak up, none of this shit is gonna change. We are going to continue to build another brick in the fascist wall. So I am exceptionally disappointed that the exceptionally wealthy are just giving kind of like symbolic resistance to what is going on here. If they want to hand over America to a very dark side, we are well on our way.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
There needs to be more class traitors, and those class traitors have to be the 0.1%. Because quite frankly, they're the ones with all the power right now. And it is not happening. What is the last thing that's going to run through your head on your deathbed? That I was worth more money than I needed to be or that I stood up for American values?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I think it's a pretty cool way to go. I think skiing is so overrated.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube by the way I absolutely love Vivian too I think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I skipped to the lunch part. One of the wonderful things about European skiing is you'll literally get off a lift and you'll see a plume of smoke and you walk down a hill and you go through this big, you know, this giant wooden door that's out of Game of Thrones. And inside are a bunch of Swiss Germans partying and planning the takeover of Austria. I mean, they're just... Going crazy.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
It's a ton of fun. By the way, it's probably crazier in Aspen now. The ground zero for douchebag ink is this place called Cloud Nine. Have you heard of this place? I've been there, yeah. So basically, it's this place on the mountain, and you don't really eat lunch. There's one sitting that's actual lunch, and then the next sitting is they pass out, no joke, trash bags that you wear as armor...
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I feel as if I need to say to you, as an American, what I should have said to my ex-wife, and that is, I'm sorry I've been such an asshole. The behavior is totally unacceptable, and I'm sorry on behalf of any sane American. And finally, we're saying the most important question. Let's talk about Connor McDavid. Edmonton Oilers. Is that right?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
So let's explain to Ed, because Ed is not much of a man. The Four Nations Hockey Tournament, which was arguably the greatest sports spectacle of the last year. Connor McDavid, in sudden death over time of the Edmonton Oilers, put it in the net for Team Canada. And you've never heard so many Americans root for Canada, I think, in history. Anyways...
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
My serious question now, what's interesting or one of the things that's interesting about America is that our news is 22 minutes of domestic and then eight minutes of international, whereas most nations it's reversed. We don't think much about other nations.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I think the general stereotype we have of Canada is it's basically a nicer, friendlier, maybe a little bit more shit-together version of America. But it strikes me, or my thesis is, that a lot of the problems at ALS are the same problems you have, and sometimes even worse.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Whether it's income inequality, it feels like someone told me that there's literally a half a dozen or a dozen families that control a disproportionate amount of the economy, that housing is just a shitshow. In Canada, and that many of the immigration problems, many of the problems we're struggling with are not just as bad, but worse in Canada.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Can you talk about as an economist what two or three things you think are really ailing Canadian society right now?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And then you buy a nice bottle of champagne and two cheap bottles of champagne for defense. And then they put on crazy music and all these wealthy people with too much money start spraying champagne on each other. And I remember I was there and standing and dancing, which me is shaking my shoulders back and forth to 80s music. Yeah. And our waitress came over.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And somebody, this guy next to me, hit her accidentally kind of in the head. And she buckled over. Oh, no. And, I mean, no, she was fine. But, like, lost control of whatever she was bringing us. And a bunch of champagne spilled on the hot fondue griddle. And this waft of pink champagne went up into her face. And I thought. Oh, God. I thought, this is the Planet of the Apes moment.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Where everyone working behind the counter jumps over, kills all of us. Totally. And then starts traversing down the mountain, gathering everyone that the 0.1% have been abusing for the last 40 years, and it starts the revolution. The revolution starts at cloud nine. It is so... Fucking obnoxious.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I am totally down to party and waste money, but I remember thinking, this is so indulgent and stupid, people spraying champagne on each other.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Just some additional data that Michael referenced. In World War II, Canada entered the war two years before the U.S. and trained over 130,000 Allied airmen. During the Iran hostage crisis, Canada or Canadian diplomats sheltered, hid six American embassy staff and helped orchestrate their escape. And had they been caught doing this, they would have been hanged from cranes.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
They stuck behind in Tehran and took huge risks. After 9-11, Canada launched Operation Yellow Ribbon, accepting 224 diverted flights when U.S. airspace closed, sheltering 33,000 stranded American passengers. Canada, as Michael referenced, fought alongside the U.S. in World Wars I, II, Korea, the Persian Gulf, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and against ISIS.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
It is the largest undefended border in the world, the border between Canada and America, which gives you a sense for how much mutual trust there has been leading up to this point. And there's also really deep people-to-people connection with extensive family ties across borders.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Now is the time to fly. I hope you have plenty of the wherewithal.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
My parents initially immigrated from Glasgow and London, respectively, to Toronto, where they were welcomed with open arms. I tell this story. I was actually conceived in Toronto, born in San Diego. And the only time I've ever seen my dad cry is every year I give him something off his bucket list, and he doesn't choose to hang out with me or his grandkids.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
He wants to go to the Air Canada Center and see the Leafs play the Habs in the opening night of the Toronto Maple Leafs. And at the beginning of the game, a bunch of Scotsmen Scottish Canadian and come out with bagpipes and he just loses his shit. But, you know, Canada and America, it's such a wonderful friendship and alliance.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I trust and hope that you and your countrymen recognize there's a lot of Americans that feel a very deep bond with Canada and that we, I generally believe this is just total nonsense. And again, to my ex-wife and to Canada and I am sorry for this type of behavior. This is unacceptable.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I trust that sooner rather than later, we'll be back to just being great, great siblings in what has been one of the strongest alliances in history. Anyways, that's my TED Talk, Michael.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Scott, your reactions to Mike? I thought he was great. He's infinitely Canadian. He's nice. He's smart. I just think it's so embarrassing that we are pissing on our neighbors and friends and allies. I just don't get it. I just don't. Let's surrender to and cozy up and give Putin a lap dance, but let's insult Canadians. I don't understand what's going on.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I trust that they're, like Michael, they're a little bit more measured and more mature than our current leadership. And I hope this is just an embarrassing kind of moment in history in terms of the relationship. But I don't know. I've thought a lot about, you know, America seems so strange. People say, well, is it time to leave?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I heard of one of my friend's ex-wife is moving to London because she's so freaked out about Trump. And I said, no, this is the time to move back to America and, you know, get in the fight. I mean, I think I've told you this. I'm moving back in 18 months.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Finally, right? Thank God. Thank God. Thank God. The nation, a huge sigh of relief. Yeah, seriously. I shall return. Watch out In-N-Out Burger. Sales are about to go up 12% year on year.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I really do think this is an opportunity and a call for Americans living abroad. If you are worried about the U.S., about what's going on, maybe you support it. But if you don't, as I don't, I think it's a good time to get back to the U.S., not to be worried about leaving, at least not yet. I think it's time to come home and become part of the resistance.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I think Tim Cook is really smart. I think he is saying, OK, for a press release, maybe we spend it, maybe we don't. I don't think Trump cares if he actually spends it or not. But I think what he's trying to do is negotiate some sort of carve out from anything resembling a tariff on Chinese manufactured products where a great deal of Apple products are produced.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I think he said, okay, coordinate with the White House. All they want is a symbolic victory. Call it $500 billion. Maybe it is. Maybe it's already spending we're planning. I see this as a giant fucking yawn. I don't even know if it actually means anything in terms of what they weren't already planning on doing or they're repackaging or they're saying anything.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
This is literally all chip, no salsa.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
If you look at... The big guys, if you look at a Meta, an Alphabet, an Amazon, they're growing somewhere between 10% and 30% a year. Apple is basically flat. I think Apple's total sales this year are low single digits, but they are a profit cash volcano. And that's what the market value is in that.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And right now, their PE ratio is, I believe, as of February 24th, is about 39, which is higher than its 12-month average of 34. And typically, I think its average over the long term is around 19. So they are—the market values them on profits. Now, the danger of that—
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
is that their CapEx as a percentage of their total top-line revenue is actually the lowest in big tech, and it's lower than when IBM was at their peak. So the question is, has Apple got so much top-line revenue that they just manage their CapEx better and are able to find greater returns?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
For example, I think you've got to give it to them, their approach to not going down the spending rabbit hole around AI and just leveraging other people's CapEx and doing something called Apple Intelligence, which was sort of cheap and cheerful. And bad, thus fall. Well, it's better than their mixed reality headset. Yeah, fair enough.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
It'll be interesting to see if their lack of CapEx filter, their competitive set comes back to haunt them. But I own Amazon and Apple are my biggest holdings. I'm actually thinking about trimming my Apple holdings because now it's, I think about, what is it? Maybe 5% or 7% of my total net worth. I'm thinking of taking it down to 3%.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And we've talked about this rotating into non-US stocks or non-US tech. The problem is, is I bought, it's trading at 240. I think I bought it at 11. So it would take a pretty big... This is crazy to hear that, yeah. But I bought it in 1838. And I bought it, I think I bought it in 2011. Anyways, I wonder about Apple. It's trading at a historical high, P, on any metric.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And I also wonder if they're... Are they just better at managing their catbacks than everyone else? Or are they eventually, is this going to come back to haunt them in terms of their inability to grow? Yeah, I think that's the big, big question.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Today's number, 202,080 kilometers. That's the length of Canada's coastline, the longest in the world. True story. If you're ever wondering what it means when a young woman, a young attractive woman, is wearing a Canada goose jacket, it means she's one bad decision away from having an OnlyFans. I don't fully get it. Surely she's rich if she's got the Canada goose, huh?
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
Look, your sons are the only people that you really hope are going to be more successful than you and your daughters. And you can trust them or you think you can trust them. You want to see them successful. You think the whole world underappreciates. You think they're capable of great things. So it's just a natural instinct to want to advantage your sons.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And you know, theoretically, or your daughters, you know, theoretically, that that's probably not good for them, but you just can't help it. And this happens everywhere. The Arnaud kid is, I think, was the head of Ramoa and has now got a big job at LVMH and at some point will probably be the CEO.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
It's no accident that the last several publishers of the New York Times company had the last name Sulzberger. Was Arthur Sulzberger? Would Arthur Sulzberger... Was he a good publisher? Yeah, I think he was. Was there any fucking way he'd be published in the New York Times if his last name wasn't Sulzberger? No. This nepotism infects all sorts of companies.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And private companies, it's a little bit easier to pull off than public companies. But the New York Times company, an incredibly important company, is riddled. I used to go to New York Times board meetings. And I'm not exaggerating. There was a cousin on the board. And his official job was submarine explorer. He had built a submarine to explore the seas. And I said, well, tell me about that.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And he's like, well, I've never actually been in it. I'm like, why? He's like, you know, I'm like, because you wouldn't get in a vessel that you've built. It's obviously, this is stupid. He used to show up to board meetings in a Tommy Bahamas shirt and fall asleep. Every board meeting. Literally Roman Roy. So it's almost like a tax that shareholders pay recognizing that
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
People want their kids to be successful, and also sometimes the kids are outstanding. Herb Allen at Allen & Co. brought in his son, Herb Allen III, and he's outstanding. He's great at what he does. I don't know if he's still running the firm. On a regular basis, you get really good cousins, nephews, whoever, that are outstanding at running the company. This is striking for a couple reasons.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
One, they're youth. It's just unlikely they're the most talented people You can't even pretend this isn't nepotism. But at the end of the day, if he controls the firm, he gets to do this. Now, if their clients and employees start leaving en masse, he'll probably decide to make a change. We also don't know if this is just symbolic where he said to all the key people in the firm, wink, wink.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I just want to keep the governance within the family safe. I'm going to have a succession strategy. I know this seems like bullshit, but you're really in charge of this. You're really in charge of this. I don't know what's going on internally, but this happens more often than you think.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
And generally the only arbiter or the only governor, I mean, keep in mind, we have nations where they have royalty, where, okay, you're the king because you're the son of this person. But what happened to royalty? Yeah.
Prof G Markets
Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt
I don't get it either, but for some reason it made me smile. Maybe it doesn't matter at all. I made that one up. Yeah, I can tell. Doesn't that make sense though? When you see a hot girl in the Canada's goose jacket, there's like a reasonable chance. Surely you've owned a goose. Oh, I own several geese. And now I'm Montclair because I'm the rich douchebag. I went, I literally, I hit a new low.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Support for this show comes from Public.com. If you're serious about investing, you need to know about Public.com. That's where you can invest in everything, stocks, options, bonds, and more. And even under 6% or higher yield that you can lock in with a bond account. Visit Public.com slash PropG and get up to $10,000 when you transfer your old portfolio. That's Public.com slash PropG.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
So, Tan was on the board, and he resigned from the board after a dispute. with then-CEO Gelsinger about layoffs. This stuff never gets out into the public arena. I've had pretty serious fights with other board members and CEOs.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
The fact that it escaped the room, that Tan had left the board over a disagreement about how many people to lay off at a place like Intel, where everyone's like playing golf at Woodside Country Club together. I mean, that means it was really heated and that Tan was pissed off. And then what's even more interesting is, is the board called him back and said, hmm, you were right.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Today's number 40. That's the percentage of college basketball fans who've admitted they've called in sick to watch a March Madness game. True story. When I worked at Morgan Stanley, I called in sick and my boss said, you don't sound sick. And I said, well, I've been fucking my pet rabbit all day. Does that sound sick enough for you?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Do you want to come be the CEO? So this is really, this is like high-dudgeon boardroom drama. When a board member leaves, he's so pissed off at the CEO, and then the board fires that CEO and calls him and says, come back as the CEO.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And this is a company that I think the markets say there's a lot of potential here, a lot of IP, a lot of brand, a lot of distribution, probably a lot of fantastic human capital, and that it has arguably been one of the worst managed companies over the last two or three decades, given the space it's in.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And evidence of that is the new CEO coming in and acting like he's aggressive, he's bold, he's going to shake shit up. The stock's up 25% in the last few weeks. He's already added... $20 billion or $25 billion in market cap just by virtue of this aggressive CEO who believes he has a vision. He's also pulling a Klarna and mentioning AI a bunch.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
He is clearly, the markets are happy about change, disruption, and for God's sakes, do something. There's real assets here. So it'll be interesting to see what he does, but he's very successful. He served as He was the CEO of Cadence Design Systems, and the company was up 33x while he was there.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And he's already sort of paid for his salary several, you know, exponentially just by virtue of the market is excited. Maybe not as much about him, but more specifically, just the prospect of serious, serious change. Your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
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Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
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Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
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Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Go to ZBiotics.com slash ProfG to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use ProfG at checkout. ZBiotics is backed with 100% money guarantee, so if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to ZBiotics.com slash ProfG and use the code ProfG at checkout for 15% off. Support for the show comes from public.com. All right.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And if you're serious about investing, you need to know about public.com. That's where you can invest in everything, stocks, options, bonds, and more. They even offer some of the highest yields in the industry, including the bond account, 6% or higher yield that remains locked in even if the Fed cuts rates. Thank you. Thank you so much for having me. Member FINRA and SIPC.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Welcome to Prop G Markets. Today, that's right, first job. Can you imagine what a great employer I was? Today, we're speaking with Lynn Alden, independent analyst and the author of Broken Money. But first, it's time for banter. Ed, did you have a pet rabbit? No, I did not have a pet rabbit.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. I should also disclose I am an investor in public.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And I've told you about that. The dog you didn't like.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Okay, you remember. Yeah, you're the first person I've ever met. It's like, yeah, I wasn't a big fan of my dog.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Yeah. Correct. I call that a Tuesday night.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Len, it was good to see you. One of our big themes for 25 was that the rivers would reverse, that the constant flow of capital into U.S., specifically U.S. growth, would not only stop, but that it would reverse. And we're starting to see some signs of this. Do you think this is a temporary blip or is this structural where we might go into a 10 or 15 year period of underperformance of U.S.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
markets relative to non-U.S. markets. Do you see this as a significant turning point or something that, you know, kind of wait and see?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Prof G. Paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokered services for U.S. listed registered securities, options, and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. I should also disclose I am an investor in public.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
I did see that thread and people loved it.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
I've always thought a decent, a non-zero probability is my end is very similar to Kung Fu star Keith Carradine. There were several prostitutes involved in Thailand. And I thought, you know, if you're going to go, go out with all guns blazing. Did you ever see Kung Fu?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Then a white guy playing like a monk who could kick the shit out of like, it was kind of politically incorrect, but very kind of politically correct at the same time. And then next half hour, I'd be like, okay, Tonto, like smell the ground for other savages.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And then, and then you know what I'd watch? Let's go through. I mean, it would be impossible for me not to be like pretty fucked up based on the steady diet of media. I watched two hours a day, four episodes of I Dream of Jeannie. We were one of the first communities in Orange County to get cable TV and they had Jeannie on four times a day. I watched all four of them.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
So I grew up, my formative years were, yes, master, or go to your bottle, Jeannie. Anyways, I'm like fucking Alan Alda. I've come a long way. Ed, what did you grow up on?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
That just means you should be abusing drugs. Claire, come in here. What did you grow up on?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Did you watch Partridge Family? Of course. Yeah, that was pretty good. My favorite thing about Brady Bunch was that Greg was fucking the mom, Florence Henderson. And the dad was closeted and died of AIDS. Obviously very tragic. The Brady Bunch was not what it appeared to be. It was not what it appeared to be. God, get me out of this. How do I get out of this? How do I get out of this? GDP, AI.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
All right, let's get to the headlines, Ed.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
So I agree with you. I'm not a fan of the BNPL space. And basically it's sort of the way it works is you can walk up to the till at a retailer and they say, would you like to buy $300 worth of stuff? And you get automatic credit right now. And the retailers love it because it inspires additional basket size on the spot.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And it's sort of tapping into young people's—and I'd be curious what the numbers here are—offering them cheap and easy credit, which sometimes leads people to bad places. Having said that, you can't infantilize people. They get to make their own decisions. But it's yet another kind of easy credit way of juicing retailer sales.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
I would argue these guys seem to be really solid operators, and that is they went from a loss of a quarter of a billion dollars in 2023 to a $21 million profit last year. And they claim, and some of this is marketing, but some of it's also probably real, that they've really embraced AI.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And that from 2022 to 2024, Klarna cut sales and marketing costs by 38%, R&D costs by 9.5%, and customer service costs by 29%. So, you know, cutting your customer service costs by a third is real. Meanwhile, its revenue has surged 48%. So their story is a compelling story. We're using technology and management discipline and AI to decrease costs,
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
while not losing growth, which results in a massive increase to the bottom line. There's been some analysis that says the savings from AI have been overstated, but this is smart from an IR standpoint. $15 billion feels reasonable to me.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
I don't know if they're growing faster than the other guys, but I would bet this actually gets a pretty warm reception in the marketplace because they're very good at using the term AI. They used... They said AI or mentioned AI 142 times in their prospectus.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Their strategy from a comms perspective, trying to create a Klarna as synonymous with AI, is both smart and effective, and I think they'll get a nice pop here. What's also interesting is they decided to list in the U.S., and it's really interesting, the umbrella brand of U.S. listing is
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
increases your market cap by the analysis that the team brought together, that the average company listing in the U.S. trades at a multiple of 24 versus 18 in the U.K. Now, you might argue, well, there's more growth companies and they deserve a higher valuation, but some of it is definitely the halo or the brand halo. of going public on a U.S.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
exchange, which tends to attract the best companies globally. And they've decided to opt for a listing on the NYSE. I thought that was kind of interesting. Your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
Basically, Jonathan Cantor and Lena Conner are no longer there to threaten. I mean, if they get a good—if they're going to go public and they think they're going to get a great valuation and there's a chance that they'll go through six or nine months or 12 months of headache trying to battle the DOJ or the FTC and maybe end up with a negative decision— Let's go public.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
But if it's Google showing up and saying, why would you even risk it? We're back. We're going to close in 30 days. The Trump administration is very friendly. They've fired the FTC and DOJ people. We have pretty decent certainty of close. and we'll up our price. Why take the risk and why put up with earnings calls?
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And every senior manager here is about to be worth a shit ton of money, and they don't have to digest their stomach and go on CNBC and put up with pesky analysts. So this was Trump, and it sounds like they increased the valuation, and boom, we're off to the races. I think they're smart to do this. I mean, if you can get... Basically, a public filing is a few things.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
One, it's a disclosure of certain data, but it can also serve as basically a... kind of a whistle or what I would call speak now, forever hold your peace to any company trying to acquire them. Because once a company is public, acquiring it is really difficult. And you got to get shareholder approval. And there's a media class action suit saying you're buying us for too little.
Prof G Markets
Searching For Value Outside the U.S. — ft. Lyn Alden
And there's all sorts of SEC issues around acquiring a public company. It's pretty clean and pretty easy to acquire a private company as long as the FTC and the DOJ aren't going to get in the way. So what changed here? Trump changed.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Then the US Congress and senators and the president signed a bill saying they were banning it. And then Trump said, whoa, hold off. So we have no credibility globally in terms of doing what we actually say we're going to be doing. So the way to summarize right now threats of banning technology, Chinese technology in the U.S., is simple. Ignore them, they'll blink.
Prof G Markets
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At the end of the day, ignore them. And on the eve of the banning, maybe the president will extend it. Maybe we get a donor to give him a bunch of money to extend it. It's no, is it an accident that one of his biggest donors, Jeff Yas, who's also one of the biggest investors in TikTok, and all of a sudden he's decided he likes TikTok and is trying to figure out a way not to ban it.
Prof G Markets
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You can't have serious negotiations, economic, geopolitical, even arms treaties with a nation that has no credibility. What is happening now and will happen with what's indicated by our lack of credibility around DeepSeek and TikTok is the same thing that's happening with the tariffs.
Prof G Markets
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Don't clap. By the way, Ed, can we talk a little bit about your dress? Please. It sort of says, I surrender. You know, I got, dude, Brunello, a little rag and bone that are like, your kids are likely to survive with me. This says, you know, aging skateboarder, but rich, right?
Prof G Markets
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And that is, as we sit here right now, the world's largest economies that trade with each other to create incredible prosperity are redoing their alliances with people other than the U.S. because they can't count on us. It would almost be better if we actually implemented the tariffs and kept them in place for a while. People would at least go, it's a bad decision, but it's a decision.
Prof G Markets
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So right now, everyone is going, figuring out different supply chain routes, different alliances to exclude this partner this kind of bipolar, unstable, inconsistent partner where the rest of the world goes, we don't know who we're waking up next to when we work with you.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
I just can't, this morning you stood in front of the mirror and said, that works.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So recessions, the joke that economists have predicted nine of the last three recessions, It is very difficult to know what's going to happen. What is obvious, though, consumer confidence has fallen further faster in the last month than it has since COVID. The economy is contracting faster than it has since COVID.
Prof G Markets
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The Atlanta Fed has this model to try and predict GDP growth, and it was running at 4% about 45 days ago, which is great growth. It's already fallen to negative 2.8. So growth and productivity aren't everything, but they're almost everything.
Prof G Markets
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Because the only way we're going to grow out of this deficit, the only way we're going to grow into a greater tax base to start making some of the forward-leaning investments, we need to ensure continued prosperity for young people and technology and education. is through growth.
Prof G Markets
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And the way that we've been able to rack up these massive deficits and not crash the dollar in our economy is that the U.S. 's growth has been remarkable over the last 30 or 40 years. It's been consistent, it's been strong, and it's been pretty steady. The thing on a more meta level, and granted, and I think anyone who listens to the pod knows, you know, I'm a glass half empty kind of guy.
Prof G Markets
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But I go much more meta on this. And that is, I see the most progressive, enlightened society over the last 200 years, in terms of an embrace of academics, art, music, an embrace of immigrants, gay rights, is Germany. But it had this 11-year descent into darkness. And what it had was a leader who was fascist. And I wanted to find what fascism is.
Prof G Markets
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Fascism is extreme nationalism that ignores the courts, is willing to take off the gloves in terms of not condemning violence against your enemies, demonizing immigrants, and deciding that it's Germany first. I think our leadership literally defines the term fascist. So we have fascism, we have intimidation,
Prof G Markets
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where people are calling for podcasters to be sued by the Trump administration if they call him a rapist, which I did. Morning Joe has to stop the show and say, it's not rape, it's sexual abuse. Right? There's a chill. When Bob Iger bends a knee and pays the Trump administration $10 million, I mean, there is a chill across media right now. Not to say anything bad about this guy.
Prof G Markets
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The most powerful wealthy people in the world are bending a knee and giving money they don't want to give to the inauguration campaign and then being show-poding around like fucking whores at his inauguration. Not that there's anything wrong with that. I'm a fan of sex work. We are one thing away from true demonization of a special interest group and going to a very ugly place.
Prof G Markets
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If you look at how things have spun out of control in societies and gone really dark, and that is a severe economic shock. And so the Democrat in me likes to think, okay, if the economy gets really bad and people see just how ridiculously stupid these decisions are, I kind of deep down think, okay, Maybe that'd be a good thing.
Prof G Markets
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I am worried that America has this cold comfort that we couldn't go there. Oh, bullshit, we could absolutely go there. Keep in mind, just a short 80 years ago, we were rounding up Japanese Americans, some of whom had kids serving in our military in the European theater, and we put them in camps. To believe it can't happen here is in my view, totally ignoring history.
Prof G Markets
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And I think we have all the steps in place. If you look at what's happened in the past and other nations that have gone really dark, what we're missing quite frankly, and the reason I'm so freaked out about this data is a severe economic shock. Because the people in power aren't gonna take responsibility for it. They're gonna find a scapegoat.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So I think that America is very vulnerable to a series of dark steps right now. It is on a path to something very dark. And I think the missing piece to go even darker would be a severe economic shock. And this looks like we are not only setting ourselves up for recession, but potentially something worse. That was awful, wasn't it? Sorry. Take everything I say with a grain of salt.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So there's a lot to unpack there because the notion, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ are two of the most damaging metrics ever invented because they create the illusion that America is doing well if the NASDAQ is up. 90% of stocks run by the top 1%. A more important number would be deaths of despair. or rates of self-harm among teens, or life expectancy.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Our life expectancy has gone down, it's just started to go back up again. But we're obsessed, if the NASDAQ and the Dow are up, we fall into this false or this cold comfort, that America's doing well. The bottom line is the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ are largely indicators on the wellbeing of the top 1%. And spoiler alert, they're doing really, really well.
Prof G Markets
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So if the stock market goes down, you're right, it's not the end of the world. The key is what is the issue that's bringing the stock market down. Natural corrections are really important. The reason I get to lead the life I lead from an economic security standpoint is just as I was coming into my prime income earning years in 2007 and 2008, the economy crashed. It got overvalued.
Prof G Markets
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And the government decided to bail out banks for $700 billion, but they didn't bail out the economy. And just as I was finally starting to get some money, I was able to buy Apple, Amazon, and Netflix at $7, $8, and $12 a share. and I was able to buy Florida real estate at a really good price because we let the markets drop by not artificially pumping them up with deficits.
Prof G Markets
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COVID comes along, greatest intergenerational theft in history was COVID. A million people dying would be bad, but people my age losing wealth would be a tragedy. So they flushed $7 trillion into the economy, 85% of which wasn't spent, not needed, wasn't spent on medication, wasn't spent on housing. It was saved, which means it went into the market.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
which took stocks to new unnatural highs, took housing from an average of $290,000 to $415,000, which basically is nothing but robbing opportunity from young people that need disruption and an entry point at a good value, such that my stocks and my houses stay elevated. So everything we have done over the last 20 years is essentially ensuring cementing my prosperity and on your credit card.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So the market's coming down because we're not going to artificially inflate them with deficit spending, which is nothing but a tax on you that's delayed, fine, or they're overvalued. But the reason stocks are coming down now is because people realize that we are destroying very prosperous alliances. We are being very inconsistent about our economic policy.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Last night at Vox had a party and a lot of our advertisers are there. And there was two automobile companies. And they both said, and I've talked to a bunch of media companies, they've said, ads are down because auto companies and housing in different parts of the economy are literally in a state of paralysis. They don't know if the average car is about to increase in cost by $12,000.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
There was an exemption yesterday, now there's not an exemption. Who gave money to Trump? Can you call him? What can we do here, right? So that is having a huge impact on the real economy. So the stock market coming down because it's overvalued or because we're not willing to prop it up to keep me rich on your credit card, fine.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
But the stock market is going down now, not because it's having air lead out of it, it's coming down now because America is making really bad decisions that's similar to Brexit. We're trying to figure out an elegant way to raise costs while reducing our productivity.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So it's like, how could we elegantly reduce the quality of life, the purchasing power, and the prosperity of Americans really elegantly? And we are figuring it out.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Yeah, our economy used to be run, I would argue, people say that we have an attention economy, right? That we try and figure out algorithms to keep you engaged such that we can sell you more ads, that that's how the economy runs. I would go one step further and say that our economy is actually an addiction economy. And that is the most valuable companies in the world
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
essentially are trying to figure out your anthropological weaknesses, tap into those, and keep you glued to your phone by a series of indignance, negative feedback, positive feedback, enraging you, get you addicted to your phone. Because there's so much money in addiction. Now, we talk a lot about young men. Men are much more inclined to be risk aggressive.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So people love to hate Apple. I don't think, I mean, just a couple of weeks ago, think about it. We were complimenting Apple for how smart they were to not go down this rabbit hole of massive capital spending in AI. That they decided that rather than develop our own search engine,
Prof G Markets
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And by the way, risk aggressiveness comes in really handy, right? if Russian soldiers come pouring across the border, you know, you want some of that big dick risk taking energy. You want aggressiveness. The power of our economy, I think, is risk capital and people willing to leave their job and start a business or approach a stranger. This is a key component of our society.
Prof G Markets
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we're just going to charge $20 billion a year in rent to a bigger, better search engine, and $19.8 billion of that will hit the bottom line. I think it's about 20% of their market cap is derived from this relationship of renting search instead of investing themselves. And we were saying just a few weeks ago that them not making these extraordinary investments in AI
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
was probably the way to go, to rent the infrastructure or leverage it, and then at some point put themselves in a position where they could extract unfair rents from an open AI or an anthropic to be the default AI on Apple devices.
Prof G Markets
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Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Well, just along the lines of housing, if you're fortunate enough to be with a partner and you're thinking about how to, the key is, the key is, I think, how do you develop economic security for you and your family?
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
People will pile in because I think what you're gonna see is, and you talked about this last week, we're about to see, in my view, a serious destruction in the value of Apple's equity. And a stock can stay elevated based on story for a while, but it's a little bit like gravity. At some point, gravity and fundamentals and valuation, I do think, tank over.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And I think that's starting to happen to Apple. Just some numbers. If you look at growth relative to price earnings, right? If the growth is bigger, you would think the PE multiple would be bigger. So you have NVIDIA, which grew 114% this year. And it trades at a PE of 40, which actually looks quite cheap given that it doubled its earnings. And then you have...
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And try and ignore the instinct that you're going to die at 35, because 99% of our time on this planet we've died before the age of 35, we have a tough time actually believing that you're ever gonna be my age. And that is, if you're 30 sitting in this audience, it means you're probably healthy. It means you're probably wealthy. It means you're probably gonna live another 70 or 80 years.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And so the key is, I mean, here's the good news. I know how to get you rich. The bad news is the answer is slowly. And what I would suggest is that you adopt the forced savings of a mortgage, but you create a mortgage around another investment class, and that is stocks across the U.S., low-cost ETF funds, and non-U.S. markets, because I think the U.S.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
is going to underperform international markets over the next 10 years. But try and figure out a forced savings plan that is tax-advantaged, commit with your partner, and rather than making a mortgage payment. So rent in Austin is about $1,500. The average cost of a home is about $3,000. I think a reasonable way to economic security is to say to your partner, all right,
Prof G Markets
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We're going to have a fairly modest home. We're going to try and spend as much time with friends, with family, outside of the house. And we're going to take that incremental $1,500 a month in housing savings and we're going to force a mortgage on ourselves, hopefully through some sort of tax advantage vehicle through our employer or through the state or through the federal government.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And we're going to create a mortgage and every month we're going to pay our mortgage but our mortgage is going to be low-cost ETFs. Because over the medium and the long term, those return 9% to 11% versus 4% to 6% in housing.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So buy into the notion of economic security and a forced savings plan, but create a mortgage that forces you to invest in the markets and realize you're not failing if you just have a modest place to live and try and spend more time outside of the house. Create a mortgage, but instead of putting it into housing, put it into the markets.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft that are growing somewhere between 14 and 22% at the high end for Meta, and their PE multiples are somewhere between 20 and 30. And Amazon, PE of 38, grew 11% last year. Apple has a PE of 38, despite the fact it only grew 2%. So relative to its growth, it just looks really overvalued. Now, the most overvalued company in the world,
Prof G Markets
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Look, so let me be clear. I have most of my money. I'm very diversified, but I buy and sell options. I buy individual stocks because I can't help myself because I'm under the illusion that most people are under that I can beat the market. But what I do is I sequester that to 30% of my total portfolio. And then I'm not going to tell you how to risk up.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Just buying individual stocks that you think you have insight into, or whether it's crypto, small amount of money in Bitcoin or whatever, I'm going into Latin American and European ETFs because I think those markets are going to vastly outperform the U.S. market. And because I'm still a bit of a dopa addict, I'm doing these 2X funds that put leverage on them.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So you are going to have no trouble finding additional alpha and risk. Or I don't know if you can find alpha. You can definitely find risk. Even buying an individual stock is risky. But what I would say is sequester it to 50%. 30% of your portfolio. Your base, your go bag is 70% in low cost index funds. And also my big piece of advice around that is if you're just in the S&P in American stocks,
Prof G Markets
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be careful because there's a crazy stat. So we've all heard that 50% of the market capitalization globally is now represented by U.S. stocks. You think, oh my God, half the world's value is in the U.S.? It's worse than that, because if you include debt, the enterprise value of a company is its market capitalization plus its debt.
Prof G Markets
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So if you're a company worth a billion dollars in terms of your market cap, but you also have $500 million in debt, the market is saying, That company is worth $1.5 billion because they're taking into account that it owes $500 million. If you count debt, if you incorporate debt into the enterprise value of U.S.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
companies, the total value of all publicly traded companies globally, if it was $100, 70 of it is the U.S., So think about this just as a shopper trying to buy value. Right now, you can buy the US for $70, or you can buy the rest of the world for 30. That to me says that the U.S. is probably overvalued and the rest of the world is undervalued.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So I'm not only suggesting you be in ETFs that diversify you, but that you're geographically diverse. Because if you look at under or over performance of the U.S. versus international stocks, it's cyclical. There's usually 10 to 15 year under or over performance relative to international stocks. And U.S. stocks have been over performing international for 16 years.
Prof G Markets
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And if you're like me and believe everything is cyclical, it means that we're probably going into a decade of underperformance in the U.S. and overperformance abroad. In terms of risk, you'll have no trouble finding risk. And then in 10 years, you'll come back and say, I was stupid. I should have just done ETFs. Thank you. Thank you for the question.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
What are you getting your doctorate in?
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Did I get my definition of fascism incorrect? You're going to forget my back.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
How do we stop when you say this, where this slow roll into fashion?
Prof G Markets
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Well, first off, thanks for what you're doing. I think education, by the way, is a really wonderful career. I'll just go on a rant about education. The problem with education is too many old people won't leave. And that is you're going to go hopefully get tenure, and there's going to be a bunch of 85-year-olds who were the bomb in Gap 1 accounting in 1983, and they won't fucking leave. Right.
Prof G Markets
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There's a company that grew 1% last year and is trading at a PE multiple of 134, despite shedding a third of its value over the last 30 days. And that's the company I love to hate, Tesla.
Prof G Markets
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And the problem is it creates a lack of upward mobility for young academics. Now, having said that, I think academia is a fantastic way to make a living. It's a fantastic way to add value, be around young people. It's the only thing I've done for this long. Anyway, so I think you picked a good career.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
I think that I'm gonna go more to a strategy around how, quote unquote, those of us moderates, moderate Republicans, moderate Democrats and Democrats, how we sort of push back on what are some emerging themes that you understand history if you're alarmed by it. What I would say is what not to do is to be emotional incendiary and wave your cane and interrupt
Prof G Markets
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State of the Union addresses, I just think we look like idiots. I think we look emotional, I think we look reckless, and it tickles the sensors of the right, and it turns off moderates. I think what we need to do, if in fact you're not comfortable with what's going on right now, is realize you don't need to respond to every issue on Twitter or TikTok.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And to also recognize the DEI causing helicopter crashes, the gulf of cheaper eggs, even the male versus female bullshit in terms of semantics, that is all a weapon of mass distraction to get you to look away from obvious incoherent, ridiculously bad government decisions. Specifically, what I would suggest is focus on one or two issues.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
You're obviously an expert or have real domain expertise around fascism. So focusing about writing about that, the similarities, try and resist the temptation to talk about I mean, all the outrageous shit, because what is going on right now is they want you to look over here and get upset and angry and not talk about the fact that, let's be honest, this is all a distraction from the following.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
We are surrendering to a murderous autocrat, and two, we are about to explode the deficit to $800 billion a year such that I can have a tax Cut. So the most powerful people in the world have this unholy alliance with the Trump administration right now.
Prof G Markets
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And that is even though they quote-unquote care about democracy and everything, your rights are strictly, unfortunately now, entirely correlated to your wealth. Roe v. Wade doesn't impact me. I can get mesofestrone for any woman in my life. If they start rounding up people, I can shove Bitcoin up my ass and peace out to Dubai and have a really nice life. I will always be able to vote.
Prof G Markets
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I will always have access to politicians. Why? Because I'm rich.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And this is exactly what's happened, and this is what happened in the 30s, is Hitler had these unholy agreements with the rich and corporations that if you back me, I will give you favorable treatment, I'll destroy the unions, I'll go company by company and not pass systemic laws, but say whoever kisses my ass and gives me money makes more money. And that was part of the key descent into fascism.
Prof G Markets
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Long-winded way of saying, Don't have an emotional reckless response. Focus on the one or two things you're really passionate about. Bring experts, bring data, bring the adults in the room. And then, you know, I would say for wealthy people, the spinelessness of wealthy people who have this cold comfort that they'll always be able to buy rights, which is unfortunately true.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
They'll always be able to protect their daughters. They'll always have access to family planning. They will always have rights. is really frightening right now because the powerful among the US are not speaking up. Look at how many Fortune 500 CEOs have said anything, anything about what's going on.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Today's number eight. If Texas was its own economy, it'd be the eighth largest nation in the world. True story. Last night, I got a little fucked up, went upstairs, took an edible Sunday night. It was bored, so I went down to the bar and I met this really hot guy. And I just kind of slipped out. I said, I have an enormous dick. And he said, but I don't like big dicks.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
They were really happy to shitpost Biden because they knew Biden wouldn't come after them, that Biden respected free speech and rule of law. Now they're succumbing to this chill that's been put across and that there'll be a reward if you just pay these people. So anyways, I think what you're doing is important work, being disciplined, fact-based, putting out content, being fearless about it.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
But I think as Democrats, we need to have a less emotional, reckless response. It is not working.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
I think, so I talk about my money all the time. I'm very transparent about my net worth in taxes. And I think some of it, as I really examine myself, is it makes me feel important and masculine because I'm economically secure. So let me be clear, I'm boasting a little bit. But most of it is I think we need to have, do you think, I met Randy Roddick last night
Prof G Markets
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You don't think Andy talked about tennis all the time? If you're not talking a lot about something and sharing ideas with your friends, you're not gonna be very good at it. And there's a real issue among, the genders don't talk about money for different reasons. For women, it's considered not sexy. You're not supposed to talk about money. It's uncouth or not good manners.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And for men, you're supposed to be accidentally rich. I don't even try. I'm just such a fucking baller. I don't need to think about money. I just make so much money because I'm such a man. And I think it's really important that people open up and talk about their taxes, their net worth, their economic stress, such that they get much better at it.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And it's hard to read the label from inside of the bottle. I mean, the wisdom of the crowds is incredible. I guarantee you, if you get together, I love investment clubs, with a group of people, one, don't feel shamed, right? Oh, shit, I just lost 80% in investment. I'm wondering if my apartment's too expensive. Because what you'll find is, one, other people are struggling, too. Right?
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
The people who are economically secure are traditionally the people you don't know. And two, you'll get ideas. You'll start learning about stuff and you'll think about and you'll hear from a friend that, okay, you know there's a program at work or this is why you should negotiate for options instead of more salary with that job offer because options and equity grow tax deferred.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
That's how you build wealth. I think we know a lot about the markets. I constantly talk about money to my friends and I constantly get really good ideas around how I preserve wealth, how I make wealth, how I'm more tax efficient, which is Latin for tax avoidance. But for God's sakes, just as we started talking about cancer, 40, 50 years ago, that was really good.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
That made people feel better and less alien and less like a failure if someone in their life had cancer. Just as we started talking about mental illness just 10, 20 years ago, which is a wonderful unlock for people to reduce shaming and learn that other people are struggling too. One of the last taboos, we started talking about sex. I think that's a wonderful thing.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
One of the last taboos is talking about money. So being very open, also just in terms of blathering on here, a really key discussion you need to have with a potential romantic partner is money. The biggest source of divorce is economic strain. It's not infidelity. It's not a lack of shared values. It's economic strain. So making sure you have alignment.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
I don't make a big investment without telling my partner. That way, if it fucks up, losing money doesn't strain relationships. It surprises. Wait, what did you do? And we lost it all? Well, okay, that's bad, but what upsets me is you didn't tell me. So I think sharing with your partner very early conversations, where do we expect to live? How much money do we expect to make?
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Who's responsible for making that much money? What's your approach to spending? Every big investment decision, even if the other person, even if the husband doesn't quite understand that stuff and says to his wife, you're in charge of that stuff, I'm in charge of money in my relationship, but I always talk about our approach to spending, what we're investing in.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
I also find it's a great way to develop intimacy with people. Money is so important to capitalist society. It's way too important, let me be clear, but it creates a bond. I remember talking to my partner early on, just saying, this is what I have. This is what I'm worried about. This is what I'm thinking about in terms of kids. And I'm worried we can't stay in New York.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And then she told me how much money she made. This was kind of early in the relationship. And it really made us feel like closer together. Because here's one of the most rewarding things about partnering with someone and why I really believe we need to figure out a way to get younger people to hook up more and mate more and drink more.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
is let me be clear, having money is wonderful, but you know what was even more awesome? Was the making it. And specifically, making it with a partner.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
like having economic shocks, being worried about money, both of us working hard, both of us saving, and then both of us investing, and then both of us together getting to economic security, that's so bonding and it's so like rewarding to build that with somebody.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So I absolutely think on a lot of dimensions, sharing and opening up and being vulnerable and talking about and sharing best practices around money, I think it's an enormous unlock.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
We could in about 10 or 15 years of underperformance. Keep in mind, Tim Cook has added more shareholder value than any individual in history, maybe with the exception of Jensen Huang. And that is since taking over Apple, the stock's up 19 fold. So this is what that means. This is how that distills down to practicality around governance. Everyone on the board, that is responsible.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
You have two jobs when you're on a board, if and when to sell the company and hiring and firing the CEO. Those are basically the only two important things you do. And also make sure the chairman of the audit committee makes sure that there's not fraud. But so the people who would have to make that decision, this is the reality.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
The majority of those people on that board have probably been there for a while and have made somewhere between 10 and $300 million. under the leadership of Tim Cook. So they feel a lot of goodwill towards Tim. And the idea that one bad quarter or a strategic misstep is gonna all of a sudden get them to decide, these are people, this is the conversation right now.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Don't worry, Tim, we're at 110% behind you. Tim Cook probably leaves when Tim Cook wants to leave because he's done such an extraordinary job. And I brought a prop here. People talk about, I mean, the headset, which is fucking stupid.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
The headset was a call option to make sure that little cocksucker Mark Zuckerberg, probably the wrong term, was not going to get too far ahead with his attempt to make vertical distribution with a headset. So he said, spend a billion or $2 billion, maybe 10, which is chump change for us, to make sure that if headsets and spatial computing really are the future of tech,
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
They were at letter D, not letter A. They're already killing it. It already doesn't work. People assume that Mark Zuckerberg is a genius, so everything he does, people rush to that end of the aisle. No, he hasn't been able to develop a product. The smart glasses will probably work. The headsets make no sense. The most underrated product are these.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
AirPods. This item would be a Fortune 50 company on its own. It is an extraordinary item. But the stock, it can be an amazing company. Tim Cook can be lauded as a fantastic fiduciary for shareholder value. And the stock could come down 40% because it's just become way too expensive. But the notion that Tim Cook or management is under any threat here, no way. This guy, arguably...
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
has been one of the most thoughtful fiduciaries and managers in corporate history. He's a first ballot hall of famer. He could literally screw up for 10 years. And just the last piece of data, Apple's percentage of its top line that goes into R&D is less than IBM's and less the rest of big tech.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So the question that I think they should be having at a board level is, are we making the requisite investments in R&D to inspire new product development? Because if you look at it as a percentage of their top line, it's actually lower than it was at IBM in their heyday and much lower than some of the other big tech.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
To which I responded, how do you feel about liars? By the way, the reason I make so many dick jokes is not because I'm profane, but we really need to show more empathy for dicks themselves. I mean, think about it, right? Their hair is always messed up. Their family is nuts. Their neighbor is an asshole, and their owner is always beating them. This is not CNBC. Welcome to Prof G. Marcus.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
I didn't see that.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Well, I'm drinking. This brings up a larger issue, and that is Imagine a commercial on CNBC that showed me recommending a WhatsApp group to recommend stocks and charging you to be on it. And it ended up that CNBC had been fooled into running a deep fake ad that was fraudulent. What do you think would happen to Comcast?
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Well, first off, it would never happen because they have implements and friction and moderation and fact-checking, but also they would be liable. I would sue them and I would probably win because I'd be able to show damages. But because this happened on Meta, Doesn't matter. They have Section 230 protection.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And all of this fraud and all of this incredible damage to intellectual property, essentially what the GRU does is that they not only spread misinformation, but they'll actually put out correct information. It was like in the movie The Exorcist when the priest says the devil will mix in truth and falsehoods just to totally confuse you. And
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
If we don't put in place, in my view, really stringent penalties to the host platform for not ensuring or making the requisite investments such that people's personal IP is not protected,
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
the level of trust, not only in institutions, but in our individuals and our leaders and the people we look to for advice, the people we look to for, you know, a general reasonable voice around whatever it might be, health or politics, we're just going to be so confused as to who's actually saying what, that again, it'll be a further erosion in institutions and a further erosion in trust.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Because when you see Esther Perel, you should be able to think she's been thoughtful and has some brings the research and the credibility and the empathy that she brings to her work. But all of a sudden, if there are a ton of fake stairs that you just get confused and overwhelmed and don't know what to believe and what not to believe, I think that really continues to fray at the fabric of America.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
And again, it shows why 230 needs to be redrawn. If you algorithmically elevate content, you should probably lose 230 protection. I think this is a big deal. I think people should have very... severe protection around their digital twin. Thank you. More importantly, the only way you're going to have digital protection is if one of these firms gets economically hit very hard.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
They will plead what they always plead, complexity. We can't stop this stuff. This is impossible. Well, on the eve of the passing of the Kids Online Safety Act, COSA, all of a sudden they figured out how to age gate. They're like, oh, we can use AI to figure out that you're 15, not 19, and then if we figure it out, we're gonna ask you to upload a federal idea.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
In about 48 hours, they figured out the impossible. So this will continue to happen unless we remove Section 230 and we hold these companies liable for effectively, if someone damages your reputation and makes it such that no one can trust you about anything you say, that is immense economic harm to you and your economic well-being for the rest of your life.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
So this is just yet another example of a transfer of wealth from traditional media to new media and new media getting to do things that, again, just erodes our trust in people and institutions.
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
Oh, of course we should ban it. Just the same way it was obvious, and still is, that TikTok should be banned. So let me list all the media companies and AI, US AI companies, just in terms of trade symmetry, who are operating in China. So just in terms of trade symmetry, it makes no sense. But it's also a security threat. The fact that we are
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
letting the CCP implant a neural jack into 70% of our future business, nonprofit, civic, and military leaders, such that they can make you feel shittier and shittier about America, one dance video at a time, that's just insane. TikTok has more impact and control over young people or exposure than ABC, NBC, or CBS did during the Cold War. Would we have allowed the Kremlin to own NBC, ABC, and CBS?
Prof G Markets
Are We Headed For a Recession? + How Tariffs Hurt Housing (Live at SXSW)
But this is the problem. No one fucking takes us seriously anymore. When South Korea says they're banning DeepSeek, I think DeepSeek and the markets go, yeah, they're gonna ban it. Anyone know if the tariffs are back off or on right now? We have lost so much credibility. We passed a law, we banned TikTok, Trump didn't like it.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
So if OpenAI was publicly traded and had a market cap of $70 billion and he showed up, as he did with Twitter... and said, okay, I'm paying an enormous premium for a shitty company. The board has a fiduciary obligation to accept his bid. And ultimately they did when they saw he was paying 44 billion for something worth 10. And then they forced him to close, right?
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Because they said, this guy's an idiot and he's overpaying. So fine, we're gonna force you to close because we're being good fiduciaries for our shareholders. In this instance, the board, I think can pretty much dismiss it out of hand They can say, we represent all stakeholders. This guy is a fucking train wreck. He has a competitive company that's well behind. He wants to slow us down.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I mean, they can just come up with a billion reasons and they don't even really need to because I think it's a fairly... closely held company, no employee. I just don't think anyone's going to put up a big fuss here. He'll file a bunch of lawsuits or whatever. But again, I think us, the Marines storming the shores of Greenland is more likely than him getting control of OpenAI at this point.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
So this is just more, I want to be in the news. And the energy he's bringing here is what I'd call really, really bitter, angry ex-spouse energy. And that is, you divorced me, you kicked me out of the house, and then you went on to be Tom Brady, and I ended up being a waitress at Waffle House. I am fucking pissed off.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And even though the guy is remarkably successful, the fact that he doesn't control AI infuriates him. And what's even worse, is he used to. He was the largest shareholder here and he wanted to be in charge and the governance there said, no, we don't want you in charge. He said, that's it, I'm out. And he signed airtight legal documents stating, I'm out. I no longer own shares here. It's all yours.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I'm gone. And now he's decided now that the thing is arguably on this next financing going to be one of the 20 most valuable companies in the world and is well ahead of his AI efforts. I want back in the marriage and I want my marital assets back.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
But the thing about Sam and the lesson here is that I do believe Sam takes relationships and friendships seriously and has created a lot more allies than enemies along the way. And I would argue over the last... five to eight years, Musk has created more enemies and that his friends are essentially friends who've made money from him.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And when he stops making money for people, I mean, Tesla's, I don't know if you saw Tesla sales in Europe, Tesla sales in Europe, they're off 67% in France. They're off like 44% in Germany. The sales are imploding. We just heard, or we're going to hear what Alice said, Alice said about Tesla and China, which is not doing well. Here's the thing. You don't need friends when you're right.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
When you're making money, you're going to have no shortage of friends. When you're not doing well, that's when you find out if you have friends. I think Sam Altman has a lot of friends. You want to put yourself through generosity, through opportunities to help people by being a decent person, by occasionally taking a blow and not feeling you got to hit back all the time.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
You need to put yourself in a room full of opportunities, even when you're physically not in that room. And I think Sam has done that. I think there's a lot of people that want, you know, for good reasons and bad reasons, Sam's going to make people a lot of money. But I also think people generally believe that, I think he has a lot of real relationships.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I just think he has so much more goodwill than Musk right now. Even when they get in front of a judge, I think the judge won't be able to like be like, okay, here's one ketamine-edled aggressive asshole. And here's this other guy who comes across as like, you know, the gay son we all want, right? He just is like this incredibly likable, smart kid.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
That's why your parents paid half a million dollars for you to go to Princeton so you could talk about Napoleon and St. Helena. I just watched the movie. I love, by the way, I love the actress that plays Was it Glenevieve? She was outstanding. Did you see the movie, Napoleon?
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Vanessa Kirby. She's outstanding. Yeah, she's great. She's outstanding. She's also, I got some insight, some scoop here. I don't think I'm speaking out of school. She's engaged to one of the great athletes of all time. Who is? I'll let people guess. She's engaged to this incredibly, literally one of the most dominant athletes in history.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
That's what I said. Have you done it? I've tried. I'm like you. I could actually surf when I was younger. Pretty much my entire athletic life could be summarized as peaking when I was 13. And so I was actually a decent surfer when I was about 13. I lived in Laguna for a while. But ever since then... I go to Brazil and, you know, I'm quote-unquote claimed to surf.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And he's also a very soulful guy that reaches out to professors to ask for life advice. It's not Tom Brady. It's not Tom Brady. No, Tom does not reach out to me for advice. Yeah. One of the greatest athletes of all time. More as dominant as Tom Brady. I'm not exaggerating. He'll send me long voice memos saying, you were talking about love and I wanted to give you my view.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Yeah. So go online right now, go into the comments and guess who it is. Guess who is engaged to one of the great actresses and is the most dominant athlete of his sport in history and is also a very like... very emotional, in touch, like evolved man. It's going to be like the world darts champion or something. This guy made millions of dollars. Anyways.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
It's basically me out in the ocean holding on for dear life to a piece of fiberglass. Anyways, that sounds like a lot of fun. I think it's nice of you spending time with your buddies.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup. Episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube. By the way, I absolutely love Vivintu. I think she does a great job.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I thought it was fantastic. Yeah, it was really, really rewarding because the Prof G markets pod had just launched and we weren't entirely sure if anyone was going to show up. Yeah. So it was really rewarding and everything kind of came together. I love South by Southwest. I think they do a great job. I love Austin. It's a chance to see all the team from Vox. Yeah, so I'm super excited.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I want to put forward a thesis and you respond because you advise clients and governments. Deep-seek is a metaphor for trade, and that is we thought we were kicking China where it hurts by sequestering them from certain advanced chips, so they figured out a workaround where they might end up actually hurting or actually reducing the competitiveness of our own chips.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
At the same time, when we slap these tariffs on, we in the U.S. suffer from this notion that as strong as our economy is, as important as we are, the rest of the world is much bigger than us. And that all we're doing is kind of cutting prices and motivating the Chinese to establish stronger export trade relationships with other nations.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
That we're hurting them in the short run, but I'm not sure we're not hurting ourselves more. It just feels like this is all literally cutting off our nose to spot our face. Your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And if you look at some iconic U.S. companies that have just been cut in half, a lot of it is just China exposure, whether it's Starbucks or Estee Lauder. Just a straight up question. Who do you think has been hurt more by this chill? Chinese companies or American companies?
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Now is the time to cry. I hope you have plenty of the wherewithal.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
We have produced 75% of the steel we use. So the remaining 25% comes primarily from Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea. And I would think that they'd want to have some kind of slack supply in the in the form of imports and not reduce or make imports less attractive.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I don't know if it's kind of union or regulatory capture where he did, you know, he promised steel workers a better deal or something like that. And what do you know, the steel industry donated over $10 million to political campaigns in 2024 across both Democratic and Republican parties. Do you have any thoughts here, Ed?
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I have one more question, and this is more, really more nuanced or more kind of vibey of a question, and that is- Here we go. 2000, I started going to China, and I was just fascinated with it. And Shanghai, and then started working with these big Western brands in China, enjoyed speaking at universities there, really enjoyed going there, and made nice connections, nice relationships there.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And then COVID and kind of the chill, if you will. I haven't been back since pre-COVID. And I have no plans to go back because I don't know how much of it is propaganda or real, but I just feel less warm about China. And the result for me, and I think a lot of people call us the mid-level business people, is we don't have immediate plans to go back or re-engage with China anymore.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Do you think that you're going to see a re-engagement and that people are going to start going back to China? Or do you think this chill is kind of frozen over and it's going to be a while before the saw?
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Today's number, $85 million. That's how much the U.S. Mint lost producing pennies last year. By the way, did you know that more money is spent on breast enhancement, Viagra, than on Alzheimer's research? At this pace, by 2040, the elderly will have big tits, stiff cocks, and no fucking idea why. That makes me happy. That makes me happy. Okay. And now Albrecht's China expert.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
It's the most obscene, ridiculous tax loophole, probably in the tax code. And that is, let's figure out a way to give an enormous tax break to what is probably the wealthiest or the wealthiest cohort of people in American history. And that is people managing other people's money. So the loophole is the following.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
There's essentially income is divided, broadly speaking, into two categories, a capital gain or ordinary income. Ordinary income is what the majority of the team here makes. And that is they come to work, they do podcasts, they produce, they edit, they get paid. That's ordinary income. And that's taxed at up to 37% federal.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And then if you roll in state and local and you live in a place like New York, at some point, you could be paying 48 to 52% taxes. And then there's capital gains, which means you buy an asset, you invest, and then you sell it. And if you held onto that asset for longer than a year, I think the highest rate is 22.8%.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
So you want to have as much income qualify as capital gain as opposed to ordinary income. And really kind of the secret to building wealth is to make the jump to life speed such that the majority of your income comes from capital gains as opposed to ordinary income. What the private equity industry figured out a way to do is that if they raise a billion dollars and they invest it,
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And they turn that billion dollars into $2 billion over seven years. That billion dollars in profits that goes back to their investors, they get a 20% carried interest on. So they get $200 million. Really think of it as a commission, right? If you sell something for more than you bought it for, as most salespeople are charged with doing in any organization, if they get a commission on that sale—
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
They get taxed at ordinary income. But private equity has figured out a way to weaponize government and through regulatory capture, turn those commissions. And that's what carried interest is. It's a commission on the incremental gains from investing other people's money. For some reason, the government decided that qualifies as a capital gain. This is the definition of just...
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
inequitable, corruption, transfer of money from lower middle-income people to rich people. So I think it's great the president is doing this. If anything, I would argue we need to do what Reagan did, turn all of this into one source of income.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And I would even argue in the business of managing other people's money, they should be subject to the highest taxes, especially once they get to the kind of scale that some of these big private equity shops get to.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
I'm hopeful that this thing finally goes away. This really isn't a slap in the face of the middle class.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Welcome to Prop G Markets. And this is definitely not CNBC.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
So as far as I understand it, because... Once they smelled money, OpenAI, which was a nonprofit, tried to pull off this jujitsu move and turn into a for-profit while maintaining some of the governance of a nonprofit. So the nonprofit division has some governance rights.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And I think what has happened here is that effectively they're hoping that they have accidentally created a two-class shareholder company. And if they get control of the nonprofit, they get control of the whole company. Because you're right, if they'd had more money, they would have showed up and said, okay, you're doing a raise at 300 pre, 340 post. We're going to offer you 500.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
This, in my opinion, is just a lot of jazz hands. And basically, I think what happened here was Musk said to his bankers and his lawyers, you know, this is one of the issues where you engage in law for. We have so much money. You can just take an hour. People are like, where does he find the time to do this? I literally think he just met with... He shoots his buddy a text.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Yeah, this is... He is literally the full... White Shoe Law Firm, Aggressive Law Firm, and Aggressive Banker Employment Act. And that is he can meet with his chief lawyer and his chief banker and say, Sam Altman, fuck with him. Find any means possible. And the bankers come back and say, well, there's this kind of weird thing. We could make a bid for the whole thing. We can't afford that.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
That's not credible. There's actually a separate element here that has some governments, right? Make a bid for that and try and create a cudgel where the people at the nonprofit want more of their stake of NewCo, but just slow them down so I can catch up with a distant seventh or eighth.
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
And it was just so hilarious, the statement they put out, and just so ridiculously cynical, and I want to read it, or a must statement when he talked about it. He said that, "'It's time for OpenAI to return to its open-source, safety-focused force for good it once was.'"
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
Okay, so all these private equity firms and the CEO of WME are going to fork over $98 billion for the betterment of humanity and AI? Yeah, that's what Ari Emanuel wants for sure, yeah. Yeah, he's worried about AI, so they're going to come up with $98 billion. It's just to try and take over open AI. In addition...
Prof G Markets
The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
The difference in governance, specifically your ability to basically stick up the middle finger to outsiders, including OpenAI's ability to basically tell them to fuck off, is much greater when you're a private company than a public company. And he can sue them, but at the end of the day, he's not subject to the same SEC regulations, I don't believe, as a publicly traded company.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And get up to $10,000 when you transfer your old portfolio. That's public.com slash prop G. Paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities, options, and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Our assets have gone up in value. Our stocks have gone up in value. Everything – when everybody wants to buy dollars and everyone thinks, I don't know what the fuck to do with my money, I know I'll buy NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple, or I'll just put it in a fund that says US S&P or NASDAQ, right? those rivers have reversed.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And this is going to cause even the shock on last week, on Thursday and Friday, hurt everyone. Everyone's like, okay, we're all fucked. He's figured out an elegant way to hurt us and hurt himself. And then on Monday, the U.S. markets went down again, but Germany's DAX closed 2.5% higher because I think the world is figuring out
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
That, yeah, this is bad for everyone, but it's really bad for those guys. And also these markets are starting from a much lower valuation. So there's a lot of – if we just do okay, maybe even – I mean, China, you don't want to talk about a big winner. I think your Chinese stocks traded a multiple of 14. U.S. was at 28. Now it's more like 26. I think those two are going to converge. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
I think you're going to see a convergence of the multiple on Chinese stocks and U.S. S&P stocks because basically China is roaming the earth right now. And I have some firsthand data on this, or firsthand, not data, anecdotal evidence. China's showing up to the biggest economies and biggest companies in the world and saying, Yeah, you know, they're crazy. I roll, by the way, you can count on us.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
If we sign an agreement, we're good partners. We're open for business. We want to do business. So I think the biggest economic story in terms of on the ground, what happens in the markets is that the Amazon River of capital that has flowed into the United States for the last 15 years, which we have taken for granted, the river has reversed.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Today's number five. That's the percentage of avocados consumed across the U.S. that Chipotle purchased last year. Ed, for me, working at Chipotle for free burritos was like working in porn in that it was fun, but it was really rough on my asshole.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
There's an effect called the Dunning-Kruger effect, and I suffer from this, and that is I've had some success in a very limited part of the business world. And so I'm convinced that I have knowledge and insight and I'd be good at a lot of different things. Trump isn't even Dunning-Kruger because people might say, oh, he suffers from Dunning-Kruger. I heard someone say that on CNN.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
But that assumes he's good at something. He was good at reality TV. People say, oh, he's a business person. He is loving these tariffs and then having these one-off, quote-unquote, deal conversations. He had a 10% base tariff that applies to nearly all U.S. trading partners. Japan is fast-tracked for tariff negotiations after Trump did a call with Shiba.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
This guy thinks he's the ultimate dealmaker and can start cutting deals like he's selling fucking condos for a $25 trillion economy. And folks, the reason why this is not the Dunning-Kruger effect is, spoiler alert, this guy is a fucking terrible business person. This notion that this guy is the guy to figure out these individual tariffs based on his blood sugar level.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And quite frankly, if you want to know who's not going to have a tariff or have their tariffs reduced, look at his lunch calendar. Look at who's kissing his ass. That is not how you run a government. And this notion that somehow this guy has any insight into the economy, much less business, is not true. He is a terrible business person. You do not have one-off deals as president.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
You just don't do that. Maybe in wartime in terms of treaties and alliances, but in terms of economics, no. You have laws that affect everybody. Otherwise, this is nothing but a line out the door of law firms agreeing to not take on his adversaries, kissing his ass. Hey, we're going to give you $50 million.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
for your inaugural campaign or wink-wink, I'm thinking about buying $100 million in the Trump coin. And you don't even need to know about it. I'm just going to do it. And the next day, it comes out that whoever has lower tariffs, you watch. Apple's going to figure out a way to get out of this. Tim Cook is so elegant and smart. He'll figure out a way to get out of this. And let's talk.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Let's use Apple as an example of just how head up your ass these tariffs are. With the current plan to tariff China, iPhones are going to go from $1,300 to $2,000. And then ass clown Howard Lutnick says there are millions of people assembling little screws into iPhones. We're going to bring all of those jobs back. Right. Can't wait to be screwing screws into an iPhone.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Dave Chappelle summarized it perfectly. He said, we want to wear Nikes. We don't want to make them. We can't get people to wear hazmat suits and go work at a chip factory and glue on circuit boards for 70 or 80 bucks an hour. They'd rather do something else. We have traded off jobs that are low value add, that don't create a lot of margin, that Americans don't want and can't do economically.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
So what do we have? We have an iPhone with the world's most robust supply chain that costs about 12 or 1300 bucks. With the current tariffs, it goes to 2000. Well, okay, the idea is, is that, well, maybe that'll make the iPhone produced domestically more attractive and bring back all these jobs. To produce an iPhone in the United States would cost $3,500.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
So you take the iPhone from $1,300 to $3,500, you're going to cut Apple's revenue on the iPhone probably in half. But let's be conservative and say it cuts it by $40 billion. They traded a multiple of sales of eight. So you're going to take a third of a trillion dollars off of the market cap. You're going to dramatically decrease the amount of labor.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
They're going to put in place reciprocal tariffs. All the shit we sell into their Estee Lauder cosmetics, North Face jackets, All the things we sell into there will become less appealing to their consumers and they'll start buying more European products or Mexican products. So what do we have?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
We not only have a reduction in prosperity, we have an asymmetric reduction in prosperity because the shit we're selling into them is much higher margin than the shit they're selling into us.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
It's almost near impossible that they didn't because other than that, these people's brains are being run by Hopper NVIDIA chips because their tariffs, even the numbers, seem to exactly match with ChatGPT. What they forgot in the prompt, though, was account for margin. and account for services and account for labor preferences.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Barely a joke. I go to Chipotle and I always click on the jokes that say NSFW. Because that's what people, that's our brand, Ed.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
They have, in other words, the people advising the president are not only don't have the domain expertise to make these decisions themselves, they're terrible prompt engineers. And when I was writing, I'm writing a book on masculinity and what it means to be a man, see above Ed Elson. But what I initially thought was, oh, it's great. I'll just do great prompts and I'll type it into chat GPT.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And I'll edit it, throw in some dick jokes, and boom, book. And what you find when you ask a machine for answers, one, it gets it wrong a lot. And two, it gives you an esoteric answer that doesn't in any way solve for nuance. And a lot of it is based on the prompt. And the fact that their responses are based on a trade imbalance is, You want a trade imbalance. Everybody wants our dollars.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Everyone wants to buy our expensive shit. Fine. And then we get to buy their very inexpensive shit. And we buy a ton of it. And it's awesome. And the fact that a ship pulling into Long Beach Harbor from Shenzhen or Hong Kong is really low in the water and it goes back high in the water, it's because they're selling us all this really low margin manufactured shit like...
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
like, I don't know, desk supplies and toys. And what are we selling them? We're selling them financial services. We're selling them back their iPhones that they have produced. We're selling them all these high margin products. So whoever went to ChatGP2's quote on his economic team would not be able to get a job as a prompt engineer for any reasonably competent company.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
That's our brand. That's why we will never be acquired by Disney. Disney is off the table.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
It's man makeup. I was supposed to be on TV this morning. So I take my Clinique bronzer and I take this Chanel moisturizer and I rub it in my hands and I put it all over my head and voila, it's young, youthful Scott.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
We're going to be talking about this for a while, but even more damaging again than the tariffs are that the American brand, which is the most powerful brand in the world, the beginning of my brand strategy class, I say, what's the fastest zero to 60 brand? What brand went from no awareness to total awareness? And I try and do it to inspire the class. And in my view, it's Al-Qaeda.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
No one knew who Al-Qaeda was on September the 10th, 2001. By September the 12th, the whole world knew the term Al-Qaeda. That the strongest brand in history, I would argue, is the U.S. dollar, specifically the U.S. It means innovation. It means wealth. It means prosperity.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
It means unbelievable military might and also rule of law and that our heart's in the right place and we're trying to do the right thing. Trying to do the right thing. Get it wrong all the fucking time, but trying to do the right thing. In three short months, we have lost those associations. Churchill has this great quote that he's credited with. Actually, he might have been incorrectly credited.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
It was probably a guy named Victor Hugo. And the quote is something along the lines of the following. Nothing is worse than fighting with your allies except fighting without them. And we're about a country that has been so fortunate that has 5% of the world's population but 25% of its prosperity.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
We're about to find out that as powerful as we are, that when we fight and when we compete for resources without our allies, it doesn't end well.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Yeah, I think that while everyone's watching this shit on YouTube, my strategy is people pull us up on YouTube and they're like, oh, I think I'm going back to audio. I'm not excited. People oftentimes come up to me and they're like, I recognize your voice. Are you Scott Galloway? And I'm like, yeah, I'm Scott Galloway.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Support for the show comes from Public.com. Sometimes it feels like you have to be a wizard to be successful in the stock market. The truth is there's no innate skill to investing. You just have to find the right tools. Enter Public.com. That's where you can invest in everything, stocks, options, bonds, and more.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
They even offer some of the highest yields in the industry, including the bond account 6% or higher yield that remains locked in even if the Fed cuts rates. With Public, you can get the tools you need to help make informed investment decisions. Public is a FINRA-registered, SIPC-insured, U.S.-based company with a customer support team that actually cares.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Bottom line, your investments deserve a platform that takes them as seriously as you do. Fund your account in five minutes or less at public.com slash prop G and get up to $10,000 when you transfer your old portfolio. That's public.com slash prop G. Paid for by Public Investing, all investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Brokerage services for U.S.-listed registered securities, options, and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And they kind of tilt their head like a dog that's walked into a room that doesn't know where it is. And you can tell they're a little disappointed.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
I have a very handsome voice, and they were hoping the rest of Daddy was going to match the voice, and it doesn't.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
No, I hope people vote for us as Ed needs his first Webby. That's right.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
That's literally a hand job from your cousin at Thanksgiving. Okay, it felt good, but yeah, all right. What's next? God, I'm so profane today. You really are. Yeah, and it's a great party. Didn't you guys go to the party that the Webby's put on?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
So next question, magic wand, advising the White House and the UK government, what are the two or three things, if you had a magic wand to try and restore a robust middle class, would you suggest in terms of economic or social policy?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
So let me just press pause there, because I agree with you, but the wealthy are the most mobile people in the world. And when France introduces a wealth tax, Arnaud decides he loves Brussels and he moves to Belgium. The wealth taxes are difficult to enforce. In theory, they make a lot of sense, but practically they're difficult to enforce.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
What about the idea of just an AMT that restores minimum tax for corporations and the wealthy, say, of 30 or 40 percent? taxes on their incomes? Well, right now, there's several Fortune 100 companies. Corporations are paying the lowest taxes in the U.S. since 1929. The wealthiest, 25 people, and paying 6% tax rates.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Anyways, get to the headlines. Let's do it.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
An alternative minimum tax of 30, 40, 50% above, call it a million, 10 million, whatever it is, that regardless of Your ability to weaponize the tax code. Okay, fine. You have to pay a minimum of this. Isn't that a more practical solution than people? You have seen this, the non-DOM thing in the UK.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
The majority of my friends who are wealthy are peacing out to Milan or Dubai because they can because they're wealthy. So for me, a more practical solution would be an alternative minimum tax. Your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Well, you've definitely started it and I'll turn it back to Ed, but I just want to summarize one of the things that, and I'm going to put words in your mouth, but I want to give you a chance to disagree with me, that throughout history, the wealthy just get wealthier unless you consciously redistribute money into the middle class. The middle class is not a naturally occurring organism.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
If you don't support it, and redistribute money from the wealthy who weaponize government and actually have just these huge advantages, it withers, which is what is happening now in this common trope or myth of the incumbents is that the middle class, the market will figure out the middle class on its own.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
I think what I hear you saying is no, it's really important and it requires a redistribution back from the wealthy to the middle class. Am I representing you correctly?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube by the way I absolutely love Vivintu I think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
About 80% of our listeners are male, and a lot of them are young people who I think feel they're smart, maybe certification, they work hard, but they feel really frustrated by some of the dynamics you've outlined. In America, for the first time in our history, a 30-year-old isn't doing as well as his or her parents were at 30. And it's just very upsetting for them.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
We have the most anxious, depressed, obese generation in history. what advice would you give to your younger self or to some of the young people listening to this podcast?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And I just want to add to this, Gary, I think of you as a class trader. And I say that in the most positive way. We need people who have made millions of dollars trading, who are calling bullshit on, I don't know what you would call this, the corporate elitist, the corporate. We need class traders. And I count you among that group. And I think your message is really important.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
Thanks for your good work. Thanks, guys. Thanks for having me.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
It reminds me of something that really changed my perspective on U.S. and the term meritocracy. Do you know Alain de Botton, the British philosopher?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
He wrote a book called Religion for Atheists. And he did this wonderful thing. He hung out at Heathrow Airport. He lived at Heathrow Airport for a few days and interviewed people. And it was just this really inspiring thing. And he has things called the School of Life. And he gave this amazing TED Talk about 15 years. It kind of changed my life, but really kind of changed my political views.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And that is, he said, the problem with a meritocracy is that the upside is agency. You believe you can do anything, and that's really important for people, and that's a core tenet of America, that we're a meritocracy. But he said there's a really ugly side to a meritocracy, or the belief that you live in a meritocratic society, and it's the following, that if you don't make it, it's your fault.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
that we teach kids in America that anyone can be anything, but if you're not adding up to a lot, it's your fault. And Gary's comments really echo that, and that is a lot of young people don't forgive themselves. It feels like everyone around them is on a Gulfstream or partying in St. Barts, and they're not.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And what's worse than that is I think they could handle that they're not, but they believe it's their fault. And I thought that was really powerful. I don't want to lower anyone's expectations. I do believe that still in America, low-income people still do have agency. Our actual income mobility has stayed flat. It's still 11% of people in the lowest quintile make it to the top quintile.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
This volatility is great for traders. It's up, it's down. There was a rumor, CNBC leaked a rumor that the tariffs are off. It spiked, as you said. Traders will make a lot of money, but this is what the medium and long-term effects will be. We've talked about this. There will be a re-rating of the U.S. markets where rule of law and consistency are no longer necessary. features.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
That's actually stayed flat for a while. So you do still have some agency. But there is an ugly side. We've just... Again, I go back to, look what money has done to us.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
We give young people, especially young men, the belief that if they aren't just fucking ballers, if they haven't figured out a way to turn money into millions and crypto, or they're not a partner at Goldman, because everybody knows someone who's done it, right? Everybody knows somebody. And then 210 times a day, they're reminded it's not them. And I do think it's important to say, look,
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
to take care of your family, take care of yourself, be a good person, live a virtuous life, get up, work hard, be patriotic, that that means you're a good man. And I worry that every incentive and algorithm and notion that you can be president or you can make millions in crypto, there's an ugly side to it, that we need to...
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
moved to a society, and I think we used to have this, you know, being a principal with a high prestige position, being a cool guy, being strong, being in shape, you know, you could be a high character person and it meant you were a real successful man. And I worry now that everything around your self-worth is just all about money.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And that it just attacks the self-esteem of good people, good young people who are trying hard, taking care of themselves and taking care of their family. So his message really resonated that there's real dignity and honor in doing that. Even if you're not living in the biggest house and driving the fastest car, there's dignity in work and dignity in figuring out a way to take care of your own.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
They're bugs because we're inconsistent and we have one-off asymmetric, non-systemic punishment and rewards based on who the president gets donations from. And over the medium and long-term, you're going to see the following. You're going to see the ratio on the PE ratio on the S&P go from 26 into the teens.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And I don't care how outstanding your firm is at growing its earnings, you cannot outrun multiple contractions. So this is volatility. But you can bet the through line, the regression line is going to be down and to the right. Your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
It'd be fun to say the market's off another 5,000 points next week. Market could go up 3,000 points. This is the only thing I'm fairly certain on is volatility.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
I loved it. I have two kind of initial thoughts. The first is I really appreciate what you're saying, and I like your commitment. I like your earnestness. I can't match it. I'm just too cynical and jaded at this point. But, you know, we will try to be fearless. Last week I got a bunch of calls from my agency because I – called out the people who run the agency.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
And I think, you know, I'm like, let's be fearless. Let's speak our minds. I mean, we might get it wrong, but our heart's in the right place. And the second thought I had is, dude, you are so sexy. Oh my God, when you were giving that rant, I'm like, Jesus Christ, this dude is sexy. Sexy.
Prof G Markets
Tariff Chaos & Trading on Inequality — ft. Gary Stevenson
But look, in my opinion, the biggest economic event, short of some exogenous shock, which you can't predict, but the biggest economic event started about 90 days ago and is accelerating. And that is the world's largest river of capital has reversed direction. The flows of capital into the U.S., we have just taken for granted over the last 15 years. Everything goes up in value.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
It's simple. Our economy shrinks. Our costs go up. Our exports go down. I mean, tariffs are taxes on the consumer, so... Whenever Donald Trump makes a really fucking stupid decision, they're like, oh, no, no, no, we can't defend it intellectually. So we're just going to say it's 4D chess and he gets it and we don't. And that latest argument is, oh, it's a negotiating ploy. This is just dumb.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
And it costs money to spin up these tariffs and then spin them down and we lose credibility. It's economic warfare against unbelievably big economies that have been great. allies.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I think in economic history, we're going to say our entry into Southeast Asia, our invasion of Iraq, Brexit, and these tariffs will be seen as the biggest self-inflicted wounds in history unless they are merely rectified. And even then, it's just like you look stupid. Well, I'm I'm leaving you. I'm leaving you. Just kidding. I'm back. Well, OK, that takes a toll on the relationship.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Your fault. Totally your fault. No, not my fault. Do you not understand the corporate world? When your boss makes a bad joke, you laugh hilariously no matter. Oh my, oh, it's so, it's funny because it's true. My job is to protect my boss. I don't want you to humiliate yourself in front of our audience. Let's talk a little bit about private members clubs, which is my new hobby.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
episodes of net worth and chill are released every wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on youtube by the way i absolutely love it into i think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
You want to know the story of my life, Ed?
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I finally get the ultimate hookup. The best room in Europe, I don't know if it's in Europe, best room in London is Chiltern Firehouse. They have a bar there that is so well done. The DJ is on fire and they have total obnoxious face control. And I wouldn't even go there. There was no way I could get in.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
And I went with some friends and this nice woman came up and started talking to me, recognized me from the pod. She's like, I'm starting a podcast. Would you be willing to have coffee? And I said, yes. We had coffee. We became friendly. And she said, here's my WhatsApp. Whenever you want to come in, here's my number. I'm like, oh, my God. I am Charlie from Willy Wonka.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I have just gotten the golden ticket. And for about the last six months, whenever I was with friends and they'd be like, oh, wouldn't it be great? Let's go to Chilton Press. Does anyone know anyone? Does anyone have a hookup? And I'm like, no. Oh, no problem. I'll handle it. No problem. I'll handle it. And boom, right in. Hello, Scott. Loved it there. Loved it there.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Hot people everywhere, which is not easy in the UK. It's not easy. It's not like New York or LA where they just let in a bunch of Uber drivers who are looking for their SAG-AFTRA card and they're hot. No, it's not easy. You are definitely like you've got some crazy pig hunting for truffles in the middle of some forest somewhere. I don't know how to come up with that analogy.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Anyway, the best room I would bet in the UK. And I am totally finally fucking hooked up. And you know what happened? Burned down.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
And I'm not exaggerating. No less than a dozen people are like, sent me video footage and they're like, are you okay? Yeah. I'm not exaggerating. I think it burned down on a Thursday. So sorry for your loss, Scott. No one died, so we can joke about it. Whatever. Andrew Balazs is already super fucking rich, and the insurance will pay for it. So people—I'm not exaggerating.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
No less than a dozen people send me video footage, and they're like, are you all right? I was there the night before. I was there at the closing party. We just didn't know it was the closing party. Anyways, the new place is a place called Soho Muse.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
This is why the audience comes here. They just can't get enough of Scott. Anyways, so... So I hear the new hot place is so amused. So I call them. Oh, no problem. I'm like a global member and I never go. And they're like, oh, hello. No, we haven't gone out with invites to the, you know, and I'm like, so I can't come tonight. Like, no, not yet.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
So even the Soho House has said we have so many non-aspirational members to try and feed the public company earnings call that we've had to create a new Soho House that's that Soho House members don't have access to. So here I am, back to who I really am, and that is not able to get into the hot place. The world, the order of the universe has been restored.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I am now again on the outside looking in, Ed.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
You'll have plenty of the where at all.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Isn't it? I mean, at least that's what society wants us to think. Gotta get a Birkin, gotta get a home, you know.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Russia is a fairly small economy. Russia's economy is smaller than Canada. So you want to kiss the ass, you want to give a lap dance to a small economy and alienate these dependable prosperous relationships with economies in Europe that combined are 15 to 17 times the size of the gas station posing as an economy called Russia. So this is incredibly stupid. Now, what could go right?
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I love what Josh Brown said. What could go right on when he co-hosted with you? These nations are bigger than Russia. Spain is almost as big as Russia. Combined, they are a bigger economic force.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
And quite frankly, they've become lazy and dependent upon a rich uncle who is no longer, who's gone fucking senile, has become emotionally and mentally unstable, and them recognizing they have to fight their own fights, but also waking up and realize, you know what? I'm pretty goddamn strong and dangerous myself.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
If they massively increase their military budgets, which I think they're going to do, and start taking leadership cues from their own leaders, and they unify, get rid of all the arguing and the bullshit, and they become a union again, there is absolutely no reason why they can't push back on Russia themselves.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
In addition, I think this is a starting gun, and this was one of our predictions at the end of last year before I even knew this, for European stocks. If you look at military spending... It's expensive in the short run, but there is the potential for dramatic technology spillover that realizes or is registered in huge economic gains in the markets.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Apple and Google are basically adjuncts or thick layers of innovation put on top of an innovation that was developed during military or war spending. GPS, Apple is basically GPS technology with a consumer layer on it that was developed during the Cold War such that we could put an ICBM in Putin's pocket within 10 feet of its designated target.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
If you look at the internet, for God's sakes, it was the US military decided, a defense department, decided we needed a nodeless means of communication for after the nuclear attack from Russia. That was DARPA, which became the internet. So I believe Europe is going to be a union again.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I believe they will massively increase the military spending, which will result in stimulus and possible technology spillover. So I think there is a real silver lining here, and I am super excited to about European getting the jolt it needed to move out of the house and realizing that they've got, they should start commanding the space they occupy.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Today's number, $55,000. That's how much a lifetime membership costs at Miami's New Harbor Club, which offers a private speakeasy and weekly backgammon tournaments. Ed, what's the difference between a garbanzo bean and a chickpea? I think I know this one. What? I'm not going to pay a garbanzo to bean on my face.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
The idea that we are going to increase our deficits such that we can artificially raise the prices of an asset class, the majority of which is controlled like every other asset class by very wealthy people, including the head of a VC fund that is the advisor to Trump, this is pure corruption in its most naked form. And
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
People will say, and I got to give it to them, well, the Democrats have just been doing this slowly, more elegantly and more covertly with lobbyists. Trump has just decided, fuck that. I'm just going to steal right in the light of day. But that is it is insane that we have an individual who is the AI or the crypto czar.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
encouraging the president to spend your money in the form of deficits, increased deficits, such that he can dramatically increase his wealth and the wealth of other people my age that have the money or have already invested in these assets. This is kleptocracy meets intergenerational theft.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
That is a direct enrichment. That's like saying I don't buy Google keywords, but I own Google, so I'm not directly benefiting off of the government buying 10 billion.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Look, I think David is an intelligent guy. When I've seen clips of him on YouTube, I think he makes interesting points. He and I have different politics, but I think he's at least intellectually honest about his politics. But he's essentially part of this kleptocracy that, wink, wink, I'll become your AI czar, and I'm going to use the taxpayer purse to enrich myself.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
And that used to be not allowed. Right. The more existential stupidity here is that you are essentially trying to come up with another default currency. And the carrier strike force that is the invisible carrier strike force that is probably more devastating than even the S.S. Gerald Ford carrier strike force is the U.S. dollar.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
The fact that we can track the flows and control the flows of the default currency globally, and it is a Very difficult for anyone to do business when we put sanctions on them and we get to see where money is going and coming is such an incredible advantage. And we are purposely ourselves trying to undermine the acceptance and ubiquity of the default currency by creating a second with crypto.
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
Just laugh and tell me how hilarious I am. Not when the delivery is completely wrong. Wait, it's, I won't pay someone 50 bucks to garbanzo on my bean, but I will pay 50 bucks for a chick to pee on me. You get it?
Prof G Markets
The Next Era Of Antitrust — ft. DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter
I mean, OK, measles, surrender, and just fucking stupid is the new American brand. Your thoughts, Ed?
Prof G Markets
A Nightmare Tariff Scenario for the Auto Industry — ft. Tim Higgins
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
A Nightmare Tariff Scenario for the Auto Industry — ft. Tim Higgins
Now is the time to buy. I hope you have plenty of the wherewithal.
Prof G Markets
A Nightmare Tariff Scenario for the Auto Industry — ft. Tim Higgins
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup. Episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday.
Prof G Markets
A Nightmare Tariff Scenario for the Auto Industry — ft. Tim Higgins
Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube. By the way, I absolutely love Vivian too. I think she does a great job.
Prof G Markets
A Nightmare Tariff Scenario for the Auto Industry — ft. Tim Higgins
I think the insecurity in the market right now is probably going to give them a reason to hit the sanity button and either get different terms or better terms or not do this investment. I guess my prediction is I'm not sure this round is going to close on the terms initially reported in the press because it hasn't closed yet. And it just feels to me this is too rich.
Prof G Markets
A Nightmare Tariff Scenario for the Auto Industry — ft. Tim Higgins
If you're a limited partner in SoftBank... Basically, Masayoshi-san has tried to convince you that within five years, this will be one of the 10 most valuable companies in the world because it's going to have to have a trillion dollar plus market cap to justify the kinds of returns for this type of risk. I think that is a difficult argument to make with any level of certainty right now.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
When I was, I moved to New York in 2000 and I didn't know anybody. And almost right away, I made good friends with a couple guys, and I said, oh, you got to come to St. Parts for the holidays. I'm like, yeah, I'm down. And we knew enough people that knew enough people that were billionaires that owned boats, and they would always have these crazy parties.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And this one guy who was always on the boat, he was this really handsome guy with great fashion and always had the hottest women around him. His name was Andrew. And Andrew was rolling with all these billionaires. And I remember seeing him, or I had dinner with him at LA once, and he rolled up in this electric blue Ferrari. And he was pitching me. He said, I have a fund.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I try and find value stocks or something. I was barely listening. And he said, and I'm giving 22% returns last year. And my... It might bullshit me. A, I didn't have much money back then, but I'm sort of like, yeah, this is way too exotic for me. But he had raised, and he listed all these billionaires in St. Barts that he had raised money from, and I knew most of these guys by name.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And it ends up that what he was doing was taking money and giving money back to previous investors on redemption, claiming they got 20% returns when he was using the money as his own personal kitty. That is a Ponzi scheme. taking investors' money to pretend you're giving returns back to older investors, hoping new investors will see these false returns and put in more money.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And that's what Madoff did. I don't think it's fair to call this a Ponzi scheme. What I think this is, is a massively levered bet. Because at some point, So they're buying Bitcoin, and then they're borrowing against that Bitcoin, so they're levering up, and then they're borrowing as much as they can on that. They're just massively levering.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
You sound good. Sound fine. That's good. Okay. Okay, enough of that. Back to me. So last night... So I don't know if you heard, but Chiltern Firehouse is burned down. So daddy needs... And by the way, I'm pretty sure that I... Oh, I think I told you this. I was borderline hypertensive, which means I almost had high blood pressure. I was 140 over 80.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
He's making a hugely levered bet on an asset, and people have decided it's a What you're saying is ultimately over time, I think, an asset really isn't an asset unless it's producing some sort of underlying cash flows, that it's not a security.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
You're going to get huge returns if Bitcoin goes up because he's levered the shit out of the Bitcoin he's bought. And it's going to go way down because he's levered the shit out of the Bitcoin. But he's not taking money and falsely claiming returns.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
The notion that people are diving too aggressively into the deep end of a pool in a market that that is overvalued, and then massively levering up. Leverage is how smart people go broke, right? And as we've discussed on this show, we're big believers that the U.S. market has become too expensive and it makes sense to de-lever or perhaps exit.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And I uploaded all my results, my urine, my blood, all this shit, and basically everything came back. And I uploaded it into ChatGBT, and it said, okay, dumb shit, drink less. And so... I just did my blood pressure last night, and it's 127 over 74-something, which means I'm back to, you know, the fucking rock star superhero I've always been.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And also, to be fair, everyone thought Bitcoin was a hedge against markets. It's not. It's ended up being much more correlated to the markets than anyone had anticipated, right? And the Bitcoin maximalist, or whatever the term is, would claim that, oh, this is the perfect hedge against other assets. Well, actually, no. It's pretty tightly correlated.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
If the market pukes tomorrow, there's a 70%, 80%, 90% chance that Bitcoin goes down. So I think your argument is buyer beware because this is a levered bet that's levered to a market that's already bubblicious. This is like the pop here could be really, really loud. And Michael did say that you have to be able to survive this volatility. This volatility is massive.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
The one thing you said that I really liked was you said, you know, fire is dangerous, but if you put fire in a car, it can move the car. I thought that was very sexy the way you said that.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I think you're a little jelly.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I will meet you in the comments. section. We'll see what people say. Yeah, we'll meet in the comment section. And I can tell you what the comments will say based on who owns Bitcoin and who doesn't. Yeah, exactly. Are we just going to be 50-50?
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
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Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
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Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And I was trying to figure out what's changed, and I'm convinced that my blood pressure has come down 13 points because Chiltern Firehouse has burned down. I would go there twice a week. I'd have four to five makers in ginger. So that's 10 makers in ginger. Four to five each trip? Yeah. Oh, yeah. Daddy goes deep in the pain. Oh, wow. I told you I'm a better version of me, a little bit fucked up.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube by the way I absolutely love Vivian too I think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
So your first point's the right one. It's almost comical that they've called for them to declassify their share structure. Good luck with that. Now, I think what they'd want to do is show up and say, we have a huge stake here and we want to help you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
The thing about activism that I learned is that typically when you go into a board of a company, you find out that you're not as smart as you think and they're not as dumb as you'd hoped. And I don't do hostile plays anymore because... What I find you want to do is you want to show up with a big stake and say, we're here to help. We're smart people.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And we want to be assets and help you brainstorm and maybe even provide more capital, provide introductions, brainstorm strategically. I find that's just a much more effective way to try and build shareholder value. And activism, and one of the reasons I was drawn to it because it suited my personality, it attracts a disproportionate number of assholes. And they come out guns blazing.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And what they fail to realize is that the people they're trying to embarrass publicly with their poison pen letters, unless it's really egregious, are humans and will circle the wagons and defend it even if your points are right. So my approach around this stuff evolved to, okay, we're big shareholders. We want to work with you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
You've seen me fucked up. I'm nice. No, I agree. Yeah, and so that's 10 makers and ginger a week. So I'm basically drinking a half a bottle of makers. So I'm convinced, and I'm glad no one was hurt, I'm convinced the reason my blood pressure has come down is because Chiltern Firehouse burned down. That makes a lot of sense, yeah. I'm trying to find the new place. Last night I went to Soho Muse.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Our default kind of operating system is to be great shareholders and great partners. But if in a year or two years, you're either stonewalling us or just making stupid decisions, we're going to go gangster on you. But we're here to help. We're going to try and get along. I find that's a more effective, what I call forceful yet dignified approach to this.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Now, Lyft is an example of a number two that has not been able to establish differentiation. And it has been a shitty place because Dara has made some really deft moves around acquisition of food delivery. He's just done a really good job. And they've kind of run away with it. And since the IPO, Lyft has lost 85% of its value, while Uber shares are up nearly 80%. Year-to-date, Lyft is down 11%.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Uber's up 18%. Uber trades at 3.6 times sales, and Lyft trades just at 0.9, half its historical average. So this company... is struggling. It doesn't have the scale and it doesn't really have a niche to kind of focus on and sort of send a brand identity. And the example I would use is a car pulls up, it has an Uber light, and then I see it turn off its Uber light and it's a Lyft light.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
So, okay, if there's no differentiation in driver or equipment, That means, okay, and Uber's got scale. That means the only thing Lyft can do is compete on price. And if you're hiring the same driver in the same cars, how do you compete on price? That's just a downward spiral. You don't have the scale. So Lyft needs to find a strategy. Now, what should they do? I would not circle the wagons.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I would invite these guys in. I don't know how much of the company they bought, but I find the best thing to do on an incumbent board is to say, the best way to shut up an activist is just to put them on your board, to say, come on in, the water's fine. And put them on your board if they've purchased a lot of shares, and then they have to shut up because of Reg D or insider disclosure rules.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
See if they have good ideas, listen to them, and get them kind of on your side, if you will. So that's how I would handle the activists. The tougher problem is what the fuck does Lyft do? And my view is they have really two choices here. The first is to pursue a sale. And I could see a big automobile company thinking, all right, we want to go vertical and we want to have an offering.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
We're Tata Motors. We want to have Range Rovers and Jaguars everywhere. Or we feel like we're going to take our production cars that aren't selling. Maybe that'd be bad for the brand. I'd have to think about it. But we want to go vertical and be in ride hailing. The other thing, I mean, they either got to do a sale or they've got to find a niche. So for example- I love wheelie.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
That's a ride hailing service here in London. And it's basically, there's Uber, Uber black, and then there's Uber lux and wheelie is Uber super lux, beautiful brand new S classes, suited driver, super clean. Other cars look brand new. It's just a different level. And they've gone after that niche and I'm sure they charge more and it's worth it. And it's aspirational.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And I hardly ever use Uber in London. Now I use, I use wheelie. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I told you about this, right? Last I heard, you haven't been yet. Is this your first time? I went last night. So fucking Soho House decides, okay, we've let in too many riffraff at Elson. Ha ha. And we need a place for the players. Scott Galloway. Small cap player. I called them and they're like, no, we're sending out invitations slowly to members. I'm like, what the fuck? I'm a member.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And she said, no, it doesn't matter. So anyways, I called someone who knew someone who knew someone. Went last night. Nice. Not Chiltern, but still pretty nice. And definitely like you could tell it's sort of a little bit of another level. And tonight I'm going to this place called Kensington Gardens, which is, I guess, also a new hotspot. So I'll soon be hypertensive again. Interesting. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for watching. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
What's going on with your drinking?
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
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Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
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Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
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GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
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Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Oh, really? To acquiesce to the Trump administration? Perhaps. Someone from the administration come up to him and say, okay, now put your elbows on the table, you fucking coward. Anyways, sorry. Go ahead. Go ahead. That's all I have to tell you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
So I would wish I'd taken more English, more biology, an understanding of history, I think is really important. And also try and be, and this isn't a class, try and be as social as possible. Because A, it's an unbelievable opportunity to develop friendships and relationships. And at Google, when they put out a job opening, They get 200 CVs in minutes and they shut it down.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And then they invite in 20 people. And 70% of the time, the person who gets the job is someone who has a friend at the firm that is advocating for them. And so what is the easiest way or likely the way you're gonna improve your odds the most of getting a job is having a lot of friends. How did you get a job, Ed? You had a best friend whose mom knew me. And they love you.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Literally, Joanna Coles called me and said, you'd be stupid not to hire this kid. That's what she said. She'd be like, I think her words were, I am not getting off this phone until you commit, until you promise. I really owe my life to Joanna Coles. That you are hiring my son's friend, Ed Elson. I'm like, and I said, well, what does he want to do? She's like, it doesn't matter, you fool.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
What a legend. Yeah, but it works, right? So I get the sense, you know, I mean, you've got a lot of flaws, but I get the sense. I get the sense you have really good relationships. You take your friendships seriously. And that's how you got this job, is you got someone in your life who just really cares for you and basically told his mom, help Ed get a job, or Ed...
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Ed said he knows this guy or likes this guy. Can you call him? I heard you know him. You want to get a job. You got to be good. Learn the basics. I like the sciences. I like communication and storytelling. But the way you get a great job and the way you change the trajectory of your professional career is relationships.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And while you're in college, it is a great opportunity to establish a lot of really like great, deep, meaningful relationships.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
The best programmers understand logic, and they're almost like internal construction managers. They're great project managers. And also, someone's going to have to give these LLM prompts and build the system. So there's still going to be a need for them. It's just like anything else that... It gets digitized when technology comes into a sector.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
It usually takes the top 10 percent and they earn three times as much and the bottom 90 make less or aren't there. And I think that's happening in that field. The correlate or the.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
resonance here is on day after tomorrow i'm headed to the u.s with my oldest son for a college tour and we've been thinking about you know there's there's a opportunity set of 100 colleges and we're going to seven of them in five days and we've been thinking a lot about it and i said all right what are your criteria and he's like you know i want a place with a great biology department he's
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Buying a house has long been considered the best way to build wealth and move into true adulting.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
That's what he came up with because he's really interested in biology and he has some real aptitude for it. And he said, what are your criteria? I'm like, I just want a small number of things. I want you to go somewhere where I think you're just going to have an amazing time because I had an amazing time in college.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And if I could give my kids anything, I just want them to have the same amazing time I had. I want you to learn about yourself. I want you to learn about others. I would love for you to acquire some skills, specifically some skills around storytelling, communication. But more than anything, more than anything, what I would hope for you is that you experience, enjoy, endure a ton of relationships.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I just want you at basketball games, in classes with 400 people, on campus all day long, in tutoring people, getting tutored, hanging out, drinking with friends, playing ultimate frisbee, playing intramural sports. I just want you bumping off people all day long and creating just a raft of relationships and friendships. That's what I'm looking for. And so we're going to all these kind of
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
land-grant schools that are big public schools with football teams and intramurals and fraternities and sororities. I don't know if they'll do that, but tons of student clubs where they just feel like, quite frankly, like college. And I think a lot of parents feel this way. I think a lot of, if you've looked at the applications trends, the Southern schools are booming and
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And quite frankly, it's like how collegey and how fun do they sound? We want our kid to go have fun. Like schools like Wake Forest are booming. Their applications are booming. SMU, Vanderbilt is now more difficult to get into than many Ivy League colleges because a lot of parents and kids have said, I want my kid to have a college experience, full stop.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
It's like anything else. You got to be good. Being intelligent, being hardworking, that's table stakes in this economy. The differentiator is the depth and number of relationships you have.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
It's not so much as a prediction, but an observation. We have this clown car called the cabinet right now. And I just think this is going to start to hit the economy. Strategy is two questions or one key question. What can we do that's really hard? And the biggest mistake people make in strategy is that they think they're punching a speed bag and people aren't going to punch back.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And every nation we have levied tariffs against, they have levied reciprocal tariffs. They have punched back. And some are getting really smart. EU and Canada, I love this, have decided to pick products where they're going to put especially onerous disproportionate tariffs on products that originate from red states.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And the whole world is sort of deciding now, including our allies, that they have this common enemy called this clown fucking car called the United States. And there's just no way that that doesn't begin to hit our economy. And it's dangerous to make predictions about the economy. I just don't see there's any way. That this doesn't impact us in the back half of the year.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I think he has dug himself too deep. And even if you were to say tariffs are off, just kidding. Nations are reconfiguring their supply chain and it's going to start to show up in Q3 and Q4 numbers in some. I'll just say, I think we're headed for recession in back half of the year.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
So two-thirds of Fortune 500 companies, 67%, are incorporated in Delaware. And that generates, get this, $2.2 billion in corporate franchise taxes annually. That's almost a third of the state's budget. And I would imagine it's really high margin revenue. And as you mentioned, Musk, they basically denied or voided Elon Musk's $56 billion Tesla compensation package despite shareholder approval.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Okay, the handbag you can probably manage without. But what about a house? Surely that's actually good, right? We're going to find out this week on Explain It To Me. New episodes every Sunday morning, wherever you get your podcasts.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And you can go back on the tape. We said, whenever this happened, six or 12 months ago, Bad decision, bad board, but they get to make this decision. And that for the courts to overturn it was a judgment call on what is quote-unquote fair compensation. And if you want to talk about compensation in America around CEOs, you just shouldn't use the word fair.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And in capitalism, the owner of the asset or the majority of the assets get to nominate directors who get to decide correctly or incorrectly the compensation of the CEO. And the moment someone weighs in and starts using words like fair or unfair and overrides the decisions of the people voted in by the owners of the company to make these decisions, In my view, you have government overreach.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
So I think they screwed up here. I think intrastate competition is a good thing. I think other states, in this instance, Texas, saying, okay, we want to compete with Delaware for companies to list here and offer them lower fees. The problem is there is a social good there. to some of this around the disclosure requirements and how a board behaves that is a social good.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
And I worry that there's a race to the bottom around governance that ultimately hurts retail investors. What are your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Today is number 1461. That's how many beers there are in a Canadian brewery's presidential pack, offering one beer for every day of Trump's presidency. Ed, what's the difference between America and Canada?
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I bet if you surveyed Americans on, if you said, what comes to mind when you say autonomous driving, the most common answer would be Tesla. And the reality is, and you brought this to my attention, Waymo is just miles ahead of Tesla. Tesla doesn't look very close to a competent self-driving or autonomous vehicle. And I took a Waymo six months ago in LA, and I was kind of blown away by it.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I mean, they're up and running. They have 200,000 paid rides weekly across Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin. I love the idea of autonomous driving. I don't... I'm trying to think how elitist this is going to sound. I don't like the drivers. I don't want any conversation. I assume they're going to take me the wrong way, which is probably not very nice. I get mad at them.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I tend to get drivers who think they know the back roads, and I'm like, it drives me fucking crazy. I don't want them to ask me about the temperature, if I want to stream my radio. I'm an awful person. I don't... I don't want to talk to anybody.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Yeah, I'm wondering what my star rating is. My general approach to service is I'm not easy to deal with, but I tip big. That's my approach. Which, that's pretty obnoxious.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
Yeah. First word douche, last name bag.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
America has really nice neighbors.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
The question I would put to you is they just raised... 5.6 billion or last year, they raised 5.6 billion, I think at a pre of 40 and a post of 45. So at revenues of $50 to $75 million, that means they're trading somewhere between, I don't know, 70 and 90 times revenues. Would you invest in Waymo at 70 to 90 times revenues right now?
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
I'm feeling very Canadian. I'm feeling super Canadian. Actually, I don't know if you know this, but Canada both passed same-sex marriage and now marijuana, which means actually they're interpreting the Bible correctly. Leviticus 20.13, if a man lies with another man, he should be stoned.
Prof G Markets
GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment
This feels like, if they can maintain this, this feels like a 2027 IPO that'll be pretty big.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
How did JFK break his arm?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I mean, think about any business that said, okay, for every city, there can only be two software companies. Right. And the governing body ruled by the owners of these software companies get to decide who the entrants are or are not.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And then if they basically have one league, that means you extract rents from the players where you're the only game in town and you get to decide how much money the maker don't make. So it's – and it's especially bad in tennis where the players command only 18% of the total revenue generated by the sport compared to basketball where the players get 50% and soccer get – they get 61%. So –
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
By helping Jack off a horse. Jack off a horse. Break your arm.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I love this. And I love that Liv came in and basically challenged the monopoly of the PGA. So I think competition is a good thing. But this is a perfect example of corruption with this veneer of benign goodwill because people have such affection for sports. But these are monopolies and the rents being charged to ticket holders or consumers are
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And advertisers who have a limited supply of games, et cetera, and to the players themselves, bottom line, it's corrupt. I love this ad. I love it.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Yeah. Yeah. I'm reaching. I'm reaching.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
You may be right, because I don't know what the kind of established law is, but you want to talk about corruption. Start talking about the international bodies that don't even have to abide by anyone. They live in this kind of nether netherland where there's no essentially they're not subject to laws of any one nation. And they've established such monopolies.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And people have tried to take them on, and it hasn't worked. Ted Turner started something called the Goodwill Games, trying to start a competitive. My big idea when the World Cup was going through all of this nonsense, I do work with Nike, Adidas. And I brought up with both of them, I said, why wouldn't you basically start a nonprofit and host a competitor or start a competitor at the World Cup?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And just give all the money back to the, you know, try and break even, but basically try and root out the corruption that about six, eight years ago, the corruption at UEFA went just absolutely insane with paying off local officials. And it became about bribes, what host country got to host the World Cup.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
So anyways, I would like to see, I hope this works, but I trust that you've done the homework here and don't think that you think the courts are going to side with the league.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
You know what it is. I had that same anxiety that when my partner asked me, you know, wakes up, it's like, oh, something. And I'm like, happy birthday anniversary. It's like, okay.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
There's just no getting around it. BYD has surpassed Tesla on almost every level in terms of tech. And Tesla sales in China have been cut in half in February. They're down 49%, while BYD's rose 161%. Their latest vehicle is 75% less expensive, so four BYDs for the price of one Tesla.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
This feels like it sort of is a metaphor for China in general, and that is in the last three months, China has kind of evidence or indicated or a metaphor for the resurgence is BYD. A year to date, BYD stock is up 64% and it trades at 33 times earnings, while Tesla is down 38%, but still trades at 166 times earnings or said differently. And I love this stat.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
The market values each Tesla car sold at 425,000 in market cap, and each car from BYD, even after this run-up, for $39,000 a car. So even despite the fact that BYD's stock has skyrocketed and Tesla's has come down, I mean, think about this. The market still values Tesla at 10 times the value per car produced BYD, and BYD is growing.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
So one of these, it would appear either BYD is dramatically, and this is the question, is BYD dramatically undervalued or is Tesla dramatically overvalued? And of course, I believe the answer is yes.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Oh, my gosh. Ed, that's great because you get your driver's license this year, right? Yeah, exactly.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Constantly. The first thing I say about you when people ask me about you is I'm like, everyone said, people say very nice things about you. And I would say, you know, he's 25. And people are like, I know. That's so amazing. So, wow, 26. That's not as impressive.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube by the way I absolutely love Vivintu I think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I think this is overdue. And just to call balls and strikes, I think that this is a benefit that we've derived from the Trump administration. I don't like the way they're going about it, but You know, for a long time, everyone has been saying that Japan and Germany and Europe have been freeloading or freeriding off of the military umbrella and expenditure of the United States.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Advice to you at 26? Try and get a great shape. I think every man under the age of 30 should be a fucking monster. You've still got a ton of testosterone and great double twitch muscle and great bone structure. And you're going to spend the rest of your life from 35 on just trying to maintain. So get to a really good place physically.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And finally, it looks like they're stepping up. And I do think that that is a direct function of Trump's withdrawal or basically saying you can no longer count on us. I mean, this will be good, I think, for the German economy because they're outstanding in manufacturing. So you would think that they would make great weapon systems. And I like the idea.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I think Germany is a well-run, well-governed place. And like I said, I think defense spending could be the stimulus. And also, I'm trying to play this trade. I think the Europe and defense trade is going to be a big one. And I've just recently made an investment in a European aviation company that I think has some defense opportunities. And I'm doing it based on two things.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I'm hoping to get sort of a double whammy of capital flows into Europe and also the increase in defense spending.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Say yes to everything. Invest in relationships. Try and establish as many friendships. It gets harder to establish friendships as you get older. So try and establish as many friendships as you can. And in the meantime, work around the clock. Try and get professional trajectory such that you can have economic security by the time you're in your 40s and 50s and spend more time with your family.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
The rivers are reversing. European equity funds registered their largest four-week inflows in nearly 10 years. And that's the most significant rotation out of U.S. into European equities since 1999. And a B of A survey showed that 60% of investors expect stronger European growth in the next year, up 9% from just two months ago. So 9% of people thought Europe was going to grow. Now it's 60%.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
The thesis I would have going into this is that they're estimating or they're proposing that the European Union is going to go from 1.9% of GDP on defense to 3%, a $19 trillion economy. You're talking about $150 to $200 billion in additional capex that the market wasn't expecting just six months ago. And that's annual. And where's that going to go?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And what companies are going to be in front of that tsunami of capital? And not only that, with the tension between the U.S. and Europe, it used to be, okay, Europe, increase your defense spending. And by the way, please buy our submarines and our missiles. And there's no fucking way they're doing that now. Germany might say, in order to build these systems, we might buy some parts from U.K.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
and Italian companies or French companies. But no, we're not going to buy from the U.S. Sorry, guys. It'll be an intra-European stimulus. I think it's really fascinating. I'm also quite optimistic about it.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I like the fact that Europe, what I think is kind of the home of a lot of progressive liberal thought and really has been kind of a beacon of light for, I don't know, philosophy and democracy and kind of modern civilization. I'd like to see them get their time in the sun outside of just Zara and LVMH.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Any mistakes you made at 26 that I should avoid? I made a lot. I think my biggest mistake was I wasn't as kind as I should have been. I looked at relationships as a transaction if I wasn't getting as much attention. I exited the relationship. I saw my employees.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I started companies from the age of 27 as kind of a transaction where I thought if I'm not getting more value out of them than I'm paying, I would fire them. Well, you've had a massive turnaround on that. Yeah. Now I'm like, no, it's just the wrong role. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I came of professional age in the Bay Area in the 90s, and there was this general zeitgeist that if you were talented and nice, it meant you were talented. But if you were talented and an asshole, it meant you were Steve Jobs. It meant you were a genius. And there was this terrible... zeitgeist or cultural norm that being an asshole somehow indicated that you were super talented.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. . . . . . ., the, P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P, gener a. , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , a el...
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And I adopted that. I was never mean, but I could have been a lot kinder professionally with people. And also personally, I looked at my relationships as a transaction, not as like, how do I How do I end up on the right side of the ledger? And then something I did right was I spent a ton of time with my mom. And I know that sounds sort of lame, but I was very close to my mom.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
in a high-rise on the beach in South Beach, and we've branded the Almond Residences, and we can charge $12 million for it because they get hotel amenities and the branding, and the owner, when he or she is not there, can put it back into the rental pool, and they rent it out, and they split the revenue. The owner gets 50%, and the brand gets 50%.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
So I get someone else to finance the construction of something, ridiculously overpay for it. And then it continues to make revenue for me because of the brand. I mean, this really is a lesson in the power of brands, a lesson in the power of demographic trends, and a lesson in kind of business models around you don't want to be in the business of owning the capital.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
We spent a lot of time together. She constantly came, stayed with me. I constantly stayed with her. And that was, you know, I'm an only child. So that was very rewarding. I'm really glad I did that. That's about it.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
You want to be in the business of managing it and taking revenue off of the top.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Just to keep it real, I want to talk about a couple other hotel stories. When I was right out of business school, I started a company called Profit, and we did consulting, and we would just take any engagement. And I took an engagement with a pager company helping them figure out their customer service, and it was in Minneapolis. And I went with my friend Lee Lotus.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And it was, I remember it because it was the day of the Clinton-Bush-Perot debate. And we got a hotel for 39 bucks a night, I think at the Minneapolis airport. And we had to go out and try and buy nose plugs or some like weird Vaseline to put under our, or weird scent to put under our noses because it stank so badly of smoke.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
It literally felt like someone had fallen asleep and been burned alive by the smoke. And then the other one was I had a client, I think it was Roots or some Canadian company in Montreal, and it was my own company. We're a small business, so I think it was like 70 Canadian. And I checked in, and it was 1993, and whatever, I was your age, so the first thing I do, I settle in and I turn on porn.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Yeah. And it's not working, so I call down to the front desk. I'm like, the TV's not working. So this Asian woman comes up. It's the White Lotus scene again. Yeah, it turns on the TV, and of course, the porn comes up, and it's like going in and out. So she sits there and starts banging on the TV, and occasionally the porn comes in, and it comes out, comes in, comes out. Were you not ashamed?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Oh, it was fucking humiliating. It was like crazy embarrassing. And I remember thinking, and then this couple, this family of like five is looking for the room. They come into my room and start going, where's room 308? It's my porn is coming on and off my TV. She's banging on the TV. And I looked at the couch. I remember the exact moment I looked at the couch and it was covered in plastic.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And I thought, this is where people come to kill themselves. This is that kind of place. She said, I want out. I can't fill this void in my chest. I'm going to go check into this hotel. Anyway, so I've seen hotels from all ends of the spectrum. I'm sorry, what was the question, Ed? What was the question?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Look, I believe in a really aggressive inheritance tax. I don't believe in dynastic wealth. One, it's bad for society. So rich kids get into the best schools and also inherit the money so they can start businesses. And there's a myth that the middle class is a naturally occurring organism. It isn't. It requires additional redistribution of income.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
You're at a point right now, so up until the age of like 22, you're basically a total draw. You're a total liability for your parents. As a young man, I mean, especially think about you. You're literally out of central casting for parents right now. And any time you spend with your parents right now, they're just going to get so much enjoyment out of.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And Republicans and the incumbents would like us to believe that, oh, no, the middle class is a naturally occurring organism and it'll come back on its own. No, if you don't take money from corporations and the most fortunate among us and redistribute it in the middle class, the middle class throughout history eventually goes away.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And what you have with dynastic wealth is you're taking capital that should go back into the ecosystem and just creating these dynasties of unproductive rich people. Now, the good news is that most of them aren't very happy.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And so for me, the reason that you can justify an exceptional inheritance tax is that additional capital or inheriting more than, say, 10 million bucks, that doesn't increase the happiness of your kids. Right. I know a lot of rich kids, and I know a lot of kids who are not rich, and the levels of happiness are not greater among the rich kids.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
So if the whole point is to create a society where people can have purpose and meaning and live a happy life, and they're getting no additional happiness, if you let them inherit more than, say, $10 or $20 million, then what's the point when you could redistribute that capital to other people and give them more of a shot? So I hate dynastic wealth.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
But what you're seeing and I see it, I mean, I think I've always resented rich kids because I'm not one of them and I was always jealous of them. But what you're talking about is already happening, Ed. I mean, when you go to these nice hotels, there's people in their 50s and 60s and you can tell it's probably their money. And then there's a whole raft of a younger generation.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
To be clear, some of them, whether it's tech, some of them, you know, whatever it is, but a lot of them are there with their parents' credit card. It's already happening.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
100% no. The returns are shitty because it's a vanity investment. So there's a lot of people that love it. I'm sure they have some sort of deal. People love the idea of investing in almond. So that means they can extract, they can get very cheap capital, which spells shitty returns. So I would bet... that it's just not a great investment. It's like timeshares.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I haven't seen the paperwork on the underlying dynamics, but because so many people love the idea of investing in Amman, they're going to get a disproportionate amount of capital such that they will be able to offer really shitty terms. I would bet the returns will be awful, but maybe there's some psychic return of saying, oh, I'm an owner of Amman and I get 10% off
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I remember more hotel stories back when I remember taking my girlfriend I was trying to impress to a nice hotel in Cabo, but I signed us up. The reason I could go is I signed us up for a timeshare tour. And it was out of turn on when I told her we had to take a two-hour tour in the middle of the day to look at timeshare opportunities. Yeah. That's what happens when you roll with a dog.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And, you know, it's sad, but it's impossible to realize or really register. It's impossible. Have you ever lost anyone close to you? Just my granddad last year. Yeah, but that's natural. I would say that's sort of, you're sort of expecting that and the fact you've been at grandparents.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
When I laid that on her and got her down to Mexico, I'm like, oh, I got this free cocktail thing for us. She's like, oh, I'm not going to go. I'm like, you need to go. It's a timeshare pitch. We have to go. Otherwise, I can't get this room right.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Do you think that's a turn on? God damn, that doesn't work.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Yeah, my prediction is that the flows of capital into Europe begin to infect not just the defense contractors, but start to infect the other sectors in the economy. And that we're going to see, I think so far, European markets are up 13% or 16%. I think they're going to be up 30% plus this year. I think this is a trade, a momentum trade.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And I think there's probably a lot of fund managers right now thinking, okay, I missed this, but it's not too late. And you're going to see just an entirely different willingness and promiscuity around allocating big pools of capital to to European stocks that haven't been there for 20 years. Quite frankly, I just think we're getting started.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Yeah. And you don't realize, especially with your parents, you don't realize how quickly it comes when they're really old. And I really, that was something I got right. I spent a lot of time with my mom. Okay, I like that. All right, fuck that. Talk about AI and GDP. Let's get on with this shit. Let's get on with tariffs.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
This is tough because they say that the markets sometimes climb a wall of worry. And just as we started saying that the markets were really in trouble, it feels like the last two days have kind of rallied a bit. But I just saw this as a bit of a nothing burger. What did you think?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
Today's number, 63,000. That's how many pages are in the newly released JFK assassination files, but none of them contain any revelations. Ed, what do JFK and Bill Clinton have in common? What's that? Both their careers ended with a stained dress. Oh, dog.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I think the Fed chair has basically one job description, and that is remain calm and carry on. It just wouldn't help if he showed up sweating, freaked out, and like, fuck, I don't know. I'm totally awake. I can't sleep. I'm so freaked out. And look at this data. Jesus Christ, I don't know what to make of this.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
If you want someone to kind of look nonplussed, like they're sleeping fairly well and not to be too alarmed, it needs to be the Fed chair. Like if the Fed chair shows up, You know, without his shoes and like he's been on a bender all night. It's just like, and popping pills.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
If every 15 seconds he said, I'm sorry, hold on a second. And he like struggled to get his pills out of his briefcase and then like started like throwing pills into his mouth and crunching on these things. That would be good. I'd love to see, I'd love for him just in the middle of these questions from centers. Just love to see him just like... bend over and just do a giant rail academy.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
What would happen to interest rates then? How would the tenure respond then?
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
You know, I don't know. You say you got a feel for Chairman Powell. I feel for the American people that are You have to live under a fascist ass clown making decisions that no one can discern, like which direction we're headed in. Is that unfair? Fascist ass clown. FAC. The silver lining is the following, and that is I do think the American economy, the gears just keep turning.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
And people keep innovating. People keep wanting to buy shit. People keep wanting to make money. People keep coming up with new ideas. And I think we probably overestimate the impact that the White House has on—it makes for a lot of headlines, but I wonder— I'm pretty sure we overestimated or underestimated. We give them too much blame and too much credit.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
But I would argue that these decisions, it would be impossible, I think, for them not to trickle down. And the fact that the GDP estimates have already come down, I think, is evidence these decisions are not good for the economy.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I love this. I think there are a few sectors that are more corrupt than sports leagues, and that is they leverage the fact that people feel really benign about them to establish regulatory capture and And they get even legislation that enables them to be monopolies. I mean, if you and I wanted to start a football team, an NFL team in Chicago, we can't.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
The NFL gets to decide they can control supply. And the owners love it because that means that they buy $4 billion and if they hold on to it for 10 years – They know it'll go up in value because they know the number of billionaires will increase as the economy increases and there's a fixed set of supply.
Prof G Markets
Has a Global Market Rotation Begun? + Inside the Ultra-Luxury Hotel Industry
I mean, these things are so corrupt and they leverage this monopoly power and they extract rents from the players, from consumers. Ticket prices have accelerated. They're essentially legal monopolies. And it's just ridiculous to think that why shouldn't you be able to start a tournament, create another team?
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Barts and relationships and time with loved ones and going to the World Economic Forum and talking about big thoughts and climate change. To drive a company like this is a young woman's game. And what he should have done, in my view, was taken the chairman role, because I think 80% of his expertise right now could be leveraged 10, 20, 30 hours a week and kept someone else in the CEO position.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And also, I believe that luck is symmetrical. And in order for a company to have the kind of extraordinary success that Alphabet has recognized, that was a lot of luck. And I typically don't invest behind a person two times in a row because if it's super successful, I'm like, it's unlikely we're going to get lucky again.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And I know that's a weird thing to say, but I think a guy like Eric Schmidt, I don't get why he's doing this personally. I think he's in his mid-60s, maybe late 60s. It feels like maybe he's bored.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Well, actually, Bezos has stepped down. as CEO because he's realized he's about to die soon, so he wants yachts and thongs. I think he gets it. But I think the question everyone's asking is, Ed, why do you hate Eric Schmidt? No, look, the guy is the chairman of everyone's dreams. He's intensely smart, intensely well-connected.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
I just don't understand why a guy at that point in his life would want to do When you're the CEO of a startup, I speak from experience here, your inbox is never empty. And you have to be able to work 15 and 16 hour days. The only time I've ever really grown shareholder value is when, quite frankly, my personal life is a bit of a shit show.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Because the marketplace is competitive and gives advantage to people who are willing to do nothing but work all the fucking time. And this is not a Hallmark commercial. I'm not saying this is aspirational. And I think a lot of people go to work for big companies because
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
to leverage their IP, their distribution channels, and their platform, and their size, and the regulatory captures so they can work 40 to 50 hours a week, not 60 to 80. You want to be in a startup? You want to be in a company like this? I think it's table stakes, even for a guy like Eric Schmidt, to have to work around the clock.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Welcome to Prop G Markets. That's right. She came to... Let's talk about me. I was at Stern yesterday and I spoke to 500 students and Bella came. And yeah, I was super nice to everyone. And then she told me she works for us. I'm like, I pay you. I don't need to be nice to you. That's right. Anyways, welcome, Bella. Very good. Welcome, Bella. Let's talk about Priests.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And if I were him with his wealth at his age, there's no way I would do that. Anyways, I'm bullish on Eric Schmidt, but as a chairman, I think this is a bad idea for him to get back into the game like this.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Look at me. Not that I'm comparing myself to these individuals. I have Catherine Dillon run our company, so I can just make dick jokes and go to South by Southwest. That's what he should be doing.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
You're accurate. It is a rich kid. My interaction with the kingdom has mostly been around involvement with hedge funds, raising money and some of the investments they make. And I find that they're actually incredibly disciplined and very smart and that they hire the best and brightest from the alternative investments world to try and allocate their capital efficiently.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
In this instance, maybe their eyes are bigger than their stomach. Maybe it'll be scaled back. But I'd like to see more big, outrageous ideas proposed. I would like to see in the U.S. them say, we're going to spend several trillion dollars to build a national high-speed rail, at least up and down the eastern seaboard. I'd like to see some big, bold infrastructure announcements in the U.S.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
We did one. Our Infrastructure Act was $700 billion, I think. They have seven projects of over a trillion. It looks as if this one is probably unrealistic, but I think that a place like the kingdom has the money and the mandate to, quite frankly, be, I don't know, be out over their skis a little bit.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Let me give you the pluses and the minuses of consulting. It's a great company to start because it requires little capex. Your expenses and your assets go home in the elevator every night. And if you don't have business, you can lay off people. If you do have business, you can ramp up.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
So in the sense, services companies are good businesses to start because they don't require a lot of IP or dramatic capex. You can start a consulting company as I did by just getting a client. I got dryers and I got Levi Strauss and Company. and William Sonoma as my first clients. It's an incredible training if you want to be an athlete. You have to be a good communicator.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
You have to go to the analytics. You have to be good at managing relationships. You have to be able to sell. It really is training for a triathlon or a decathlon. I think it's a fantastic—if you're coming out of business school and think, I want a second MBA, but I want it in the private sector, consulting is a fantastic training. It turns you into a great athlete. You make good money.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
You never get really wealthy. That's the downside because the barriers of entry here, it's a multiple of EBITDA business. When I started my second consulting firm, L2, which I called Business Strategy, I turned it from intermittent consulting engagements. I used to charge Williams-Sonoma half a million dollars to do their internet strategy.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Instead, I said to Nike, give me a quarter of a million a year, and I'll meet with you every three months and just look at data and give you advice. It is a very taxing business. Again, see above, it's a young woman's game. It's very taxing on your health and your relationships because When you're in the services business, you're always someone else's bitch.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Actually, this happened to me three times. The CMO of Audi, who was my biggest client, called and said, Scott, we love you. Can you be on Ingolstadt tomorrow? And the answer was always, yeah, yeah. I'll get on a fucking plane from San Francisco flying to Munich.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Being coach, because it was my money back then, with six young people trying to figure out a PowerPoint presentation of what we were going to say to Audi that they hadn't heard from McKinsey and bomb to the Kinkos when we got to Munich at 9 a.m. to print this thing out and then fly back to San Francisco the next day, it takes a real toll on your relationships and your health.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
It's a very taxing industry. It's also you make a good living. But it's hard to get really wealthy in consulting because it's all current income. I found it fucking exhausting. I don't want to golf or have dinner. If you're having golf and dinner with people you don't really like, it means you're in an undifferentiated industry. What do you mean by that?
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
I mean, the truly great companies don't need to socialize with their clients. And also, if you're spending time, a lot of time getting taken to basketball games or dinners by third-party vendors, it means you're paying too much. It means you're getting ripped off.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
So Vanguard's not going to take you out to lunch, but your wealth advisor from name the brokerage who takes you to a basketball game, that means she is charging you onerous fees. That's a great point. Anyways, the services business is we're all selling the same shit, and the way we differentiate is relationships. Anyways, that's my TED Talk on the services business. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
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Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
I'm now Pete Townsend. I'm the most talented member of the band, but fucking, what's his face? The lead singer? What's that guy's name? I don't even know who Pete Townsend is. Oh, Jesus Christ. Exactly. You're going to have a panic attack hearing that. He was the lead guitarist of The Who.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Thank you so much for having me. Member FINRA and SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. I should also disclose I am an investor in public. Now, prediction markets, on the other hand, or even the stock market, which can swing wildly on a headline, those will keep you on the edge of your seat.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
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Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
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Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
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Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
But the front man, Richard Daltrey, who starred in a great movie, Pinball Wizard, very handsome, better looking than the more talented... Pete Townsend, this is where I'm going. Everyone's like, oh, oh, Roger Daltrey, not giving any love to the real talent, Peter Townsend. And that's what it feels like at South by Southwest. Everyone's like, oh, Prof G, what?
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Well, as you know, I like to ground everything in a personal parable so I can talk more about me. So tariffs coming in, you charge a tariff. We charge tariff on aluminum and steel. And the rationale was we need to maintain a healthy domestic production or supply of steel. That kind of makes sense. If we go to war, we need tanks. We don't want to be too vulnerable.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
So great, Cleveland Cliffs and U.S. Steel saw their earnings go up because their product became more competitive because foreign imports became more expensive. But that additional incremental income was vastly outweighed by the decrease in demand for products that had to dramatically increase their prices because of the additional cost of the input of steel and aluminum into their products.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
So we're net losers, even when they pay the tariff and there's no reciprocal tariff. And this comes back to my first parable. I don't know if you've noticed when we're on this show, I angle my head to the left. I guess I haven't. Now I'm noticing. You need to start investing in this relationship. You never notice.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
You haven't noticed all the Pilates I've been doing to try and be more attractive to you either, you awful person. Oh, no. I've noticed that for sure. By the way, I fucking hate Pilates. Angle of your face. All right. The angle of my face. My nose goes to the right. And the reason why it goes to the right is when I first moved to New York, I was bored, too much time on my hands.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
I was doing yoga and I was doing boxing. And I got a trainer, this guy, this boxing guy, and I'd spar with him. And he convinced me, he's like, you know, you got pretty good hand speed, you're in good shape. Why don't you enter this boxing tournament at this gym, this boxing gym we belong to? And I'm like, was stupid enough to think that was a good idea. So I'm 6'2", 190.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
You're not a fan of Megan Rapinoe? I think there's a little sexism in here. There are a lot of amazing female athletes that you have not mentioned at that dinner. There were. I wasn't that into women's soccer at the time. Jesus, Claire. Can you believe this guy? Bella, I apologize.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
It ends up that a guy who's 5'9", and 190, and knows how to box is fucking Mike Tyson. So I get into the ring with this guy. All I hear, all I remember was the bell. And the next thing I remember was all of these bright lights because I was flat on my back. The amount of money I would pay to watch this fight, it's crazy. Oh my God. And my nose has never straightened. My nose now goes to the right.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And here's the thing. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Arguably one of the greatest football players in history, but you didn't bring her up. I didn't, but Andy Roddick. You brought up the white dude that plays tennis.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And you went to Princeton, right? I did, yeah. Six foot three, white male. Figures. Privileged. The patriarchy. Oh, my God. Thank God I've got Claire. I totally agree with that. But literally on that stage of us with us was Megan Rapinoe, arguably one of the greatest, you know, football players in history.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Her wife, Sue Bird, a retired WNBA player who was also, I think, won the NCAA championship two or three times.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Is that on your Wikipedia page who pays you? I don't have a Wikipedia page.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
So supposedly, SoftBank was about to lead a round into open AI at a valuation of between $260 and $300 pre-money, putting a $40 billion round, putting it at a post of $300, a post of $340. I think the insecurity in the market right now is probably going to give them a reason to hit the sanity button and either get different terms or better terms or not do this investment.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
It strikes me that valuing OpenAI, as amazing a company as it is, as valuable or as impactful as AI is going to be, I would imagine a lot of his investors are like, it's beginning to smell a lot like WeWork. I guess my prediction is I'm not sure this round is going to close on the terms initially reported in the press because it hasn't closed yet. And it just feels to me this is too rich.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
If you're a limited partner in SoftBank, basically Masayoshi-san has tried to convince you that within five years, this will be one of the 10 most valuable companies in the world because it's going to have to have a trillion dollar plus market cap. to justify the kinds of returns for this type of risk, I think that is a difficult argument to make with any level of certainty right now.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Is OpenAI an amazing company at 50 or 100 billion? Absolutely. At 300 billion? I don't know. That feels very toppy to me, Ed.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
This industry is arguably one of the more seminal technologies in history. The ability to, my parents had to crawl across the Atlantic over seven to nine days getting seasick to get to America. Now you can get, you can realistically fly from London to New York in about seven hours. And if you book well ahead, you can do it for $400.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
I mean, it's just this technology has been such an unbelievable unlock for economic growth, ability to see your family more regularly, mobility of capital to its greatest return. It's been just an enormous breakthrough. Airlines, if you net out all their profits and all their costs so far, are breakeven. It's been a shitty business. Differentiation is near impossible in this industry.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
What do they have? They're all flying the same tin cans. They're all flying one of two planes from one of two manufacturers, Airbus or Boeing. They're all flying into the same airport. It's very hard to differentiate on labor or service. And Southwest was able to find differentiation around a brand. That meant freedom. OK, you just got fired. You want to head to Vegas. You make a reservation.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
You need to change it. No change fees. We're not going to nickel and dime you with bags. It's freedom. It's the ability. It was total cost structure. Even the planes are super fucking ugly. They're orange because they found early on. that that was the paint that was most overordered and they could get the lowest cost on.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
They had all 737s for a long time to create scale around repair and maintenance. Everything was about low cost to give you economic freedom to take your human capital where and when you wanted. This is exactly what you just said, and that is somebody has done the analysis that says, okay, this cost of free bags is greater than the brand equity bump we're getting.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
In the short term, they will absolutely recognize a really substantial increase to the bottom line. But in an environment where it is so difficult to establish differentiation, I think they are trading off long-term margin for short-term stock gain. I remember one of my first clients who started a strategy firm in my second year of business school, one of my first clients was Dreyer's.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And this CMO who was just incredibly smart, this guy named Tyler Johnston. And we were going into a recession, this was 1992. And I said, well, why don't you just take down marketing spend? They were a company that was always about to be acquired by a bigger food company, which ultimately they were for a lot of money.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And he said, you can't take down, you always have to be disciplined about brand and marketing spend. Otherwise, all you're doing is juicing your bottom line and trading off long-term strength. And I think that's quite frankly what they're probably doing here. I haven't seen the numbers. The people from Elliott are very smart.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
But in an environment that is almost near impossible to maintain, establish and maintain differentiation, this was a tangible point of differentiation. So I would call this short-term financial engineering at the cost of long-term differentiation of margin power.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Today's number, five inches. That's the length of a live turtle that a Pennsylvanian man attempted to smuggle through airport security in his pants last week. True story, Ed. I was blessed with a seven-inch dick, but now the priest is in jail. Ed, how are you? Ed, how are you? I'm just putting it together in my head. We have all these young interns.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And by the way, I love hot dogs. Last night I decided to share a hot dog with a homeless person, and he said, fuck off, get your own hot dog. Anyways, let me be serious for a second. So I started a company called Red Envelope. And we spent a disparate, basically, I love benchmarking, which is consultant speak for ripping off other people's IP.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And I was always fascinated with Tiffany, specifically how much IP and brand associations he managed to inject into this aquamarine blue box and that elegance, sophistication. romance, Audrey Hepburn. And I said, I'm going to start a company that is the Tiffany of hip, urban, progressive, more erotic sensibilities.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And we came up, we spent a lot of time and a lot of money on a beautiful red box with a gorgeous bow. And we had people in our fulfillment center who tie the bow with hands. When a machine ties a bow, it looks like a drunk guy with big thumbs tied it. It just looks weird. And it was really expensive.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And someone did the analysis and said that we actually have negative margin on some of our least expensive products when you put it in this beautiful red box. And I said, you don't get it. That is key to our brand. And so this is simply, this is why managers are supposed to get paid really well. They have to trade off
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
The temptation to add everything to the bottom line while managing long-term investments that create sustainable margin and brand power. And the thing about luxury brands and the thing about great brand builders, the analogy I use is like working out. When you work out, it's time expensive, it's a pain, and you're sore. And so is brand building. It's expensive.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And the next day, it just fucking hurts. But if you're disciplined about spending and offering the services that buttress your brand associations, over time, you get stronger. You have an easier time. getting supplier relationships. You have an easier time recruiting employees. You have an easier time raising prices.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
But in a company like Southwest, I would be very careful to remove any tangible point of differentiation. I mean, how on earth do these guys compete against each other? What is Southwest's value proposition or differentiation now? Like, what is it? Well, we're just Southwest. We're orange. I mean, what is it? Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
Yeah, I think you're being unfair. So there's two sides of this trade. And that is the way corporate governance and decisions get made is that shareholders get to decide who are the board members and the board members get to decide who would be best for stakeholders, which is Latin for shareholders.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
They're literally just note to self, exhibit 22B. If I don't keep giving them increase, they're literally every day balancing the money they'll get from the lawsuit that I'll settle out of court. Only upside for us. Oh, we have a new intern. Wait, who's the new one? That's probably Bella you're talking about, who just came on full time. No longer an intern. Oh, Bella. Hey, Bella.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
And the board decided that to get a guy like Eric Schmidt, who is arguably one of the most lauded, successful CEOs in history, to come run their firm, which sounds like it was struggling, quite frankly, is they decided, yeah, that is absolutely worth it. And I would imagine the value of the company is up substantially just on that press release.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
So there's two sides of this trade, including if the CEO had control of the company because he didn't have to raise a lot of money or he was doing so well that he had that kind of credibility with the board, he could have decided what to do. And maybe he did decide that it makes sense for Eric Schmidt to take over. Now, having said that, I would not invest in this thing.
Prof G Markets
The S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory
I'm ageist when it comes to startups, and that is when Eric Schmidt took over Google, he was much younger and probably willing to put all relationships and all vacations aside for a while. And now he's a billionaire in his 60s who's probably in the midst of, like many of us. of a realization that he's going to be dead soon, and he's not going to work his ass off. He's going to focus on St.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And my proposal would be the following. I would like tuition to go up another $10,000 in the form of a tax on every kid's family that is in private school, such that they can pour more money back into public schools. Because here's the problem. I went to a public school And it was in the 70s in LA, and it was the year they started integration or busing. And this isn't a Hallmark story.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Overnight, 40% of our class was Black kids who were on a bus from Compton for an hour each day. And the idea would be we'd all get along and have great empathy for each other, and we fucking hated each other. And we used to have black against white softball games, and the faculty allowed it. That's the bad news. The good news was that by the time we got to high school, we were getting along.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I genuinely believe that over the long term, I've established a lot more empathy for people not born with pale skin and outdoor plumbing and got to grow up in Westwood. But my two best friends, Adam and David, immediately their parents pulled them out of school and sent them to this Tony private school called Windward, where they'd go to Catalina Island and study marine biology.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Oh, my gosh. What was that? Some push-ups? I saw you doing something off mic. Secretary Hegsatz said that he did five rounds of 47 push-ups. So I'm committed to doing five rounds of 48 because I'm already very excited about whoever's going to be 48. And I did two sets of 48. So I'm trying to figure out, I'm on TikTok and YouTube, trying to figure out how to increase your push-up numbers.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I went home and said to my mom, I need to go to private school. And she said, I had one of those, what I call talks where she sat me down and said, we're different. What we need to do in private schools, quite frankly, is tax the shit out of them and reinvest in public schools. So the fact that private schools are going up in cost, that doesn't bother me at all.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I would like to see them go up more in cost in the form of taxation and then reinvest it in public schools, because the key signal or the key metric of success of K-12 schools isn't even resources. It's parental involvement. And dual-parent households typically have one or two parents who can spend more time being involved in the school.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
But when you pull out all of those wealthy parents, all of those typically dual-income, dual-parent households, the amount of parental involvement in that school declines and the quality of the education spirals down. Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
A lot of it comes down to this. The number you skipped over that Mia pulled together for us was that AI-specific VC funding you got in percentages was $97 billion in the United States. It was $9 billion in Europe. And keep in mind, the US and Europe actually have similar-sized economies. It really all comes down to a risk complexion.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And the way I summarize it when I'm speaking to a European audience is that you're the ones that stayed. And that is, think about who went to America. They were risk takers. And that DNA just carries through. You think that's why Americans are more risk aggressive? It's genetic? Oh, my God. Are you kidding? Look at what is the most innovative part of America? California? Yeah.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And who went to California? The people with a nice, cozy life on the East Coast? Who went to the West Coast? I'm with you. I'm with you. I want to hear more. When you talk about success, this is true in life. If you want to score above your weight class professionally and romantically, it's a function of how much risk you're willing to take. I agree with that.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
My parents came to the U.S., on a steamship with like three or $400, that was enormous risk. And also that's why immigrants are so incredibly powerful. They not only work harder, they're like, I just fucking crawled under a fence and avoided dogs and left my family and left my sick mother to come here. That risk-taking DNA is everywhere in our gene pool. And it's not, it's not in Europe.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Strength. But anyways, Ed, what's going on with you? What's going on with you as I try to out-push up the DUI hire, Secretary Hegseth? What's going on with you?
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Well, Europe has to do something, because Europe, if you look at the rise of China— It actually, so China has grown its economy much faster than the global economy. And it has the second most billionaires behind the U.S. And it hasn't come at the cost of the U.S., though. The U.S. has maintained its share of GDP, its share of billionaires, its share of growth. It's come at the cost of Europe.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And so Europe needs to take a page out of that hardworking playbook of China and that risk-taking playbook of the United States. And without government subsidies that encourage people to take these risks, it's just not going to happen.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast, for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup. Episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube. By the way, I absolutely love Vivintu. I think she does a great job.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Hola, Eduardo. ¿Dónde está la biblioteca? Where are you staying? It looks like a nice hotel.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Look, I'm just pissed off. Now, after this drawdown today, I'm only up 500%, not 600. Is that true? Is that the number? Well, price at $35. Let's find out the number. Price at $35, it's at 200. So what is that? Up about 450%. Yeah, okay. And that's in seven months? Yeah. Wow. This was a fucking layup.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
This was, if you believe we're in an attention economy and you can transition or arbitrage or turn convert attention into dollars, this company still has a long way to go. And that is, I mean, it was up 71% year on year. Average revenue was up 28%. Net income quadrupled to 71 million.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I think that a lot of people just said, okay, with this kind of valuation, maybe it's gotten out over its skis, but I think it's already recovered some of those losses today. It's an asset-like company. It's got sort of meta-like margins of 93%. Meta's gross margins were 82% because they keep making these ridiculous CapEx investments and things like headsets.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Get this, because of Alphabet's big investments in cloud and AI, their gross margins are 58%. Apple's was 47%, which makes sense because they're on hardware. But gross margins at the fourth or fifth most trafficked site in the world are 93%. So... I would argue and see above shareholder. I mean, it's still, I don't want to say it looks cheap.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
It's hard to think of something up four and a half fold that looks cheap, but it's worth is between 50 and 60. It's one 50th the value of sites above and behind it. So now the problem is it hasn't been able to monetize as well, but with year on year revenue increases of 70 plus percent, It appears that it's doing pretty well.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
The problem is, unless its monetization comes up, its average revenue per user was $4.20, but meta is about three and a half times higher. So on a book level, it looks expensive. Their key is very straightforward. They got the traffic. That's usually the hard part. They have to show their ability to continue to increase ARPU.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
But the takeaway also going second order of fact, we've said that as it relates to podcasting, that there's going to be this incredible dynamism there. in the podcasting space over the next 12 months, where you're going to see at the top 100 podcasts, you're going to see 50 new ones and you're going to see 50 drop out.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And the arbiter of that churn is going to be YouTube, which is now the largest distribution platform for podcasts. People spending more time listening to podcasts on YouTube than on Apple or Spotify. I think in 2026, the arbiter of podcasts and the biggest growing distribution mechanism of podcasts is going to be Reddit. I think Reddit is so perfect for podcasting.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Think about the discussions, the threads, and the audience. I think if you could figure out a way to distribute clips, full podcasts, live podcasts, to me, it's just out of central casting to become... the Spotify or the YouTube of podcasting. That's very interesting.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
My father peaked at the age of about 48 or 49 professionally, and then he was the national sales manager for O.M. Scott's, a fertilizer company, which I realize is kind of a weak flex. But he used to roam around to the equivalent of Lowe's and Home Depot's and Sears and become buddies with the person in charge of lawn care, the lawn care outdoor department there.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And my dad is super fucking charming. I mean, ridiculously charming. And then sell them basically bags of shit. And anyways, but that was when he peaked and then he went on, you know, and then he'd started a string of four or five divorces and then left me. Hold me, Ed. Hold me. Anyways, he used to say to me, he had all these tests to decide if I'd be a good salesperson or not.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I remember we used to sell subscriptions and whatever. Sorry, to test if you would be a good salesperson? Yeah. He thought sales was everything. And he used to sign me up for stuff, like selling magazine subscriptions. And he used to give me a thing, and he'd say, this is your rap. And he'd practice with me at the door, and he'd send me out on a Saturday.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Ask me what my favorite place to vacation in the world is as someone who's been literally everywhere. What is your favorite place to vacation in the world? Mexico. If I could only vacation one place... Would it be Mexico? I think it might be Mexico. Maybe Italy? Mexico, yeah. Really? Yeah, it's fantastic.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And basically, like mothers used to say, they're Roman warriors. Come home with your shielder on it. And he's like, how many subscriptions do you think you're going to get? He'd give me a quota. I'm like eight fucking years old. I kind of love this. I was eight. I'm sure it was traumatizing, but I kind of love this.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I'd roam around the Shores community in Laguna Niguel and I'd knock on doors and I'd say, hi, I'm Scott Galloway. I'm at whatever it was, Emelita. And we're doing a magazine drive to try and raise money for our school. I live down the road. And he'd say, throw in your interest. And I'm like, I like the big wheel. And I like, I dream a genie. And he'd be like, no, don't say I dream a genie.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I'm like, he'd say something else. I'm like, Brady Bunch is like, better, more wholesome. Yeah. And I'd roam around the neighborhood.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I'd roam around the neighborhood. And I'm not exaggerating it. I sold more subscriptions to Life and Reader's Digest than any nine-year-old in Emelita Elementary School history. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Oh, yeah. You have it all in Mexico. You have culture. You have amazing food. The pricing is crazy.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I had, like, great meals, and it's been, you know... It's like getting sweet green, practically. It's got sort of that Mykonos amazing beach, beautiful water vibe for about 40% of the price. And the people are friendlier. Also, it's got extraordinary architecture, incredible food. I just absolutely adore it. Max, anyways, I'm glad you're there.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And then I saw the first one. You weren't? I thought this was your idea, no? It was my idea. And then I thought, okay, we spend so much time on our No Mercy, No Malice newsletter. It's taken us 10 years to get to half a million subscribers. We really haven't figured out a way to monetize it, quite frankly. That's not why we started it.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Jake Tapper's book club? Exactly. That wasn't riveting content?
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Well, it would be Scott and Ed. So I think eventually Netflix goes into news and they do a loop where they – so a daily business update where it's more highly produced, more graphics, more visuals. And also if you were going to do a regular podcast every week, what I think you'd want to do if you're talking about – your guest is Richard Reeves.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
You take 15 or 20 minutes and you go talk to parents and young men. You just, quite frankly, you take podcasting and you just massively increase the production value. Because right now, the means of production are—and this is the thing I love about podcasting and the thing that scares me about this—is the means of production are basically what looks like a toiletry kit for me. And that is Drew—
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
who's our tech wizard, puts together this little dop kit for me. And it's the size, it's smaller than a lunch pail or like literally like a toiletry kit. And I can take it anywhere and pull out my mic plug it into my laptop, and boom, I'm podcasting. The game is going to be upped. And you're going to see podcasts where it's an hour-long podcast, but they'll do breakouts.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And when we're talking about Reddit, it breaks to like a three-minute thing where they're interviewing the CEO or they use amazing visuals to go online and talk about Reddit and what's interesting about it. But the game, the bar is going to be raised. And they have such incredible...
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
depth of talent that they'll be able to say okay scott and ed if you want to do a daily market show we have an unbelievable production team and not only in new jersey but in madrid and when you're done recording at seven at 7 p.m we have our folks in la take it over then they throw it over the wall to the folks in madrid at three in the morning where it's eight in the morning their time and they produce just this really impressive podcast meets hollywood if you will
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
But it's just this monkey on my back mostly come Thursday night when I'm like, okay, what am I going to write about that people would actually want to read and doesn't embarrass everybody? And then I thought, okay, the notion of another newsletter. And then when I saw the work that Mia and team had done on the design and we have already sent out a test batch and people –
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Let me put it this way. The days of me just tapping in from the Dolphin Hotel in Walt Disney World and getting a quarter of a million people to listen that day with the bad curtains in the background, I'm not sure that shit's going to survive. Well, that is the big question.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
We should tease. We're thinking—well, we're not thinking. We've decided Prop G Markets, which is the fastest-growing part of our— Podcast empire. We're going to go to daily. And one of the things we're talking about is, all right, Scott's traveling all the time. Scott doesn't want to work that hard. And how do we incorporate Scott into a daily show?
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And you guys came up with this notion of, and it's being done on authenticity, that it's like, where in the world is Scott? And I would literally tap in on my phone wherever I am and just provide a viewpoint. And your view and Claire's view, and I thought it was really insightful, was rather than trying to mimic Scott,
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
80 of the production value when i'm in studio just put it on your phone and it's just wherever you are at that moment and ed is asking questions or you're giving your view but go the other way and make it very raw like live from the bar at maison estelle or wherever i'm getting drunk you know scott go into a bathroom stall and and tell us what you think about the reddit earnings
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
but I thought that was really interesting. But whatever Netflix does, everything is sort of colliding back to where what's old is new again, right? We're kind of reassembling the cable bundle. It's advertising, but it's also subscription. But I think that podcasts are going to become more like TV than TV is going to become like podcasts.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Anyways, I think it's going to be fascinating to see, but it's just, you hear this and you just know in 24 months, there's a non-zero probability that what... Everyone's talking about YouTube and podcasts. People are going to start talking about Netflix and podcasts. I also think Reddit.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
It's about who controls, who has custody of the consumer, who has the trust and the direct vertical interface with the consumer. Okay, let's take a look at the week ahead.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
People seem to really like it. I think we're going to be close to 200 or 250,000 subscribers right out of the gate. So now I like it, and yes, it was my idea.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I can't help it. I'm a broken clock here. Tesla is imploding. It's absolutely imploding. Its sales are off between 10% and 60% across European nations. It was off, I believe they're off 11% in China. In a growing market, BYD is producing as good a car for 40% of the price. They haven't had a new vehicle, a new kind of mass vehicle introduction in over six years.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
When I'm getting into Teslas, and I'm biased, but I think they just feel stale. I think the competition has caught up and even surpassed them. And then I think about what he's done with the brand, just trashing it with Nazi salutes, like the model Tesla SS and changing his pronouns to he and Himmler. I just think this is going to catch up. It already is. And you're seeing sales imploding.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Meanwhile, it has this just ridiculous fucking multiple. And I've always said this, that stock prices... are like Michael Jordan jumping from the free throw line. It feels like he's never going to come down, and he always does. And fundamentals, I don't care if you're GameStop. I don't care if you're True Social. At some point, Michael Jordan hits the hardwood again.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I think the stock is below 200 in the next six months. Good luck. We've said this before.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
But we'll see. Yeah, I'm sticking to my guns here. It is time. It is time.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Do you want to hear my other movie impression? Yes, please. And I'll ask you to guess who it is. Okay. Okay, ready? How about no? Who is that?
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
That's right. That's right. What is that movie? The Spy Who Loved Me. You're Getting Warmer. You're Getting Warmer. Mike Myers. Austin Powers. There you go. Very good. Anyways. That's good. Inflation.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I would say probably the biggest impact it's going to have, with the exception of consumers who really feel it, especially those who, you know, energy, housing and food takes up the disproportionate amount of their income, which is 80 or 90% of the American consumer.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
It's that the market is going to have to absorb the fact that the expected interest rates probably aren't coming as quickly as they thought or in the foreseeable future. The number that pops out to me, and I had someone who basically ran Obama's campaign call me because I was just on CNN, where, by the way, I dropped an F-bomb, no joke, on CNN. That's not good.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And Dana Bash, who I think should be president if we're going to start picking cable news hosts to be presidents and secretaries. asked me what the Democratic Party needs to do. And I listed all these things and I'm saying, and some, we need to be the party of tomorrow and not fucking around. And then I said that, I'm like, oh no, I'm not on a podcast on it.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And literally, Dana and the other hosts looked at me like they just got me masturbating. They did not know what to do. They've never had that before? Oh, it's happened several times. I was raised by a single mother and I was, oh wait, you mean dropping an F-bomb. I'm sorry. That was good. That's why you come here. Subscribe to our markets newsletter now.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I don't think you're going to be on CNN again after this. Well, if I don't get another show on CNN+, as far as I'm concerned, my life is over. That's it. Anyway, but I was talking. One of the Obama people called me and said, I liked what you had to say, and he specifically zeroed in on, I think, the big idea that the Democrats need. We need to move from being –
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
the party of complaints and whining and the, you know, seniors who changed jello night outrage to the party of the future.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I think one of the really interesting ideas that one or both political parties should forward is just a massive program to provide subsidies to the private sector and decreases the ability to reject housing permits such that we have a massive influx and creation of millions of units of new housing stock. And I think this would help level up young people.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And it's just psychologically so important. Employ a ton of people, especially a lot of young people, especially a lot of young men who over-index around construction and vocational jobs. But what you're seeing every month is an increase in housing costs. I mean, do you know what's about to happen? I have a buddy in LA who had his house on the market, like a nice little bungalow.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
for $1.1 million, which basically means it was a shack if it was in Santa Monica. And he just got an offer for 1.8, because something like 13 or 15,000 dwellings have been taken immediately out of the market in LA because of the wildfires. So I zero in on the housing, but this isn't a surprise. The question is whether it sticks to Trump or not, as most things don't.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Today's number, .004%. That's the chance of being born with a genetic mutation that allows you to sleep less than six and a half hours each night without any ill effects. True story. Last night, I had six hours of straight sleep. The other two were gay, but I woke up fulfilled.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
But when you combined an incredibly aggressive anti-immigration policy tariffs, and then massive deficit or a fiscal plan that probably indicates an explosion in our deficits, this all adds up to inflation. I would predict it's actually going to get worse. What are your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
I left Manhattan because when my kids were applying to school, I think it was pre-K. I think my oldest was four years old or three years old. And let me be clear, the story ends well. He's a star now and doing incredibly well. But when he was three or four, he was speech delayed.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And they have something called a play date, which is really just an interview where they invite a bunch of the kids who are applicants to play with each other. And then there's these three young Gestapo Stasi people in the room pretending to like your kid taking notes, which is really comfortable. And they did this game where they go around a circle and they play.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
hit their hands on the floor and go, I like daisies. My name is Lisa. And the next one, my name, you know, I like ice cream and my name is Bob. And then they get to my son and he hits his hands on the floor and he's like, that's it. He's just looking around. And I'm like, he's not getting in. And we applied to seven schools and they all send out the letters. on the same day.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
Let's enjoy it while it lasts. Today's discussion on property markets. I'm out of breath, by the way, because I did about seven minutes of working out. Yeah, I can tell.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
And I was told by a friend of ours who was coaching us around this one school we want to go to, make sure you drop off muffins to the admissions director. I drop off muffins and I'm like, I'm not fucking dropping off muffins. That's where I draw the line at muffins. And I was under the illusion, oh, I'm a big time professor, podcaster, we'll get into three or four, if not five or six of schools.
Prof G Markets
Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts
We got into zero of the seven. And I was so upset that no one was going to let me pay $58,000 for my kid to play with blocks that I said to my partner, I said, I've been single and an entrepreneur my whole life or most of my life. I'm used to rejection. I am not used to it for my four-year-old. And we left New York. The issue with K-12 is the following. I have no problem with tuition going up.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
As it relates to private equity and bankruptcy, that's not surprising because private equity is usually, let's take all of its cash flows and use it to lever up such that we can have more upside and finance the acquisition with cheap debt. And when it doesn't work, they declare bankruptcy.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Now, having said that, the debtors or the bondholders charge a certain interest rate that calculated in the risk of default. And when the bondholders – when it defaults, the bondholders get to seize the assets. And when a private equity company or a private equity-backed company has – you know, when it goes bankrupt –
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I don't know. I haven't counted. I can't go here. There's no way I don't come across as the world's biggest douchebag talking about the number of seats.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Generally speaking, the private equity, all the equity capital they put in, they also get wiped out. So it does lever up and go risk on on a company, but it also creates a certain sense of urgency. I think private equity has been good and that good for society. I'm not one of these people that says, oh, they're ruining everything. I don't think that's true.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
There's a lot of entrepreneurs who've made a lot of money selling to private equity. And the thing I like about private equity is is they're usually very good at getting management vested in terms of the upside of success.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
They're actually quite generous, whereas venture capitalists, I find, are primarily just, with rare exception, just mendacious fuck douchebags who pretend to give a shit about anybody and then wash the founders out. Speaking for a friend. But so I like I enjoy working with private equity. I think debt tightens the focus, if you will. And most of the time these things, you know, it does make sense.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And also there's there's two parties to the trade. The company doesn't have to sell the private equity. They don't. They've they've entered into this agreement knowingly. The people who are financing this debt enter into this trade knowingly and are getting a good, hopefully a good interest rate to reflect the risk. But this is a company that's a shadow of itself.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
It sounds to me what I would want to know is what percentage of their leases are coming up for renewal that we can get out of, because that's the obligation here that is most scary.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And that's why a lot of retailers, good retailers, declare bankruptcy, because then they can go and cherry pick and hold on to the leases they want and get out of the contractual agreements with the leases that are hurting them. So I wouldn't be surprised. I bet this, I wouldn't be surprised if Sycamore actually does pretty well here. Do you want to hear my CVS and opiate story, Ed? Please.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
My CFO came in at L2, came into me and said, I need to speak to him. So I'm just like, there's some really crazy charges at drugstores all over Manhattan. And I looked at him, I'm like, yeah, this is not me. This doesn't make any sense. I'm like, it must be fraud. He's like, no, it's not fraud. It's your assistant.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And it ends up that my assistant was addicted to opiates and was going to every doctor in Manhattan getting a script for opiates and then going into a CVS or a Walgreens and not only getting her opiates but buying $1,000 or $2,000 in cosmetics or gifts. And she was not only a criminal, she was a stupid criminal. And she would sign for everything and have it delivered to her house. Right.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Get this. She managed to spend, I think, over five months or seven months, $120,000 on my corporate card at various CVS and Walgreens all over Manhattan.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
They lost her. And I remember calling her. I'm like, look, we have an issue here. You are clearly addicted to something. There's $120,000 on charges on my card. And not only that, I'm like, she's like, oh, I don't know what you're talking about. I'm like... And you've signed for this shit at your address. Your signature's on this stuff.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
You decided to have someone drop it off at your apartment, which wasn't like, you know, you're not exactly what I'd call a very, you know, this is disorganized crime. And she immediately went into rehab, claimed disability, and tried to sue us for the options that we owed her. She dropped the case when I said I was going to turn it over to the Manhattan DA if she didn't drop the case.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
But anyways, that was my last assistant, Ed. That was my last assistant.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I think Musk, when he saw this, I think this probably sent a chill down his spine. If people start canceling Starlink contracts, I mean, they're already throwing shit at Teslas on the road. I just canceled a Tesla last night on Uber. I'm starting to cancel if it's a Tesla when it comes up. I think that Canada, I think this guy's making the right move, and I think you're only gonna see more of it.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I think people have just had it. What's a shame is that we don't have the same type of leadership here in the United States. There hasn't been a single CEO who has stood up and said, I am not going to participate in this pay for play kleptocracy. I'm not giving to the campaign. I am not going to be paraded around. You either have laws that affect all of us or none of us, but I have had it.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And we haven't had anyone that shows the balls of this leader up in Ontario. And it is so disappointing the domino theory of cowardice that has infected the rich and Fortune 500 CEOs. I can't think of one who has spoken out all under the auspices of quote-unquote shareholder value. Well, folks, your stakeholders include Americans.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
It is incredibly disappointing that we aren't showing a fraction of leadership that this guy is showing.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I think this is what is going to probably push Musk out of government or he's going to decide he's going to try and declare victory and leave. Because if you look at Starlink customer base, I mean, Tesla is already crashing. It's literally imploding.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I don't know if you saw this video of Mardi Gras and someone, a Tesla truck or whatever you call it, was rolling down and everyone started throwing shit at it. Starlink was his growth vehicle. And there's one and a half million customers of Starlink in the US. You referenced that there's 530,000 in Canada, its second largest market. That's real.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And then the number three market, Mexico, at 435,000. And then the number four is Brazil, who probably doesn't feel that great about Musk, who was threatening, was fucking with their internal politics. So You know, Starlink's value in the private markets, it's the most valuable company – one of the most valuable private companies and the most traded in the secondary market.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And I think it's a third of a trillion dollars. I think it's trading at $3 or $350 billion. That number is going to come way down because if they can't show the kind of growth that they've been showing – Also, you are seeing a lot of... You want to talk about Greenland's going. If I'm Telesat or Explore, the competitors, they have no trouble raising a shit ton of money right now.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
One example, one example of reaching too far into the barrel, Aspiration, a finance firm that claims its products can, open quote, change climate change, end quote. In August, the company announced it was going public via SPAC at a $2.3 billion valuation. Change climate change. That would be awesome. Except there's a catch. This is a fucking debit card. He's so good.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And because there is about to be a big gap in the marketplace for this type of broadband provider.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Yeah, that's right.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
kind of failed. You're the one I invested in, but is that what you're saying, Ed? Is that what you're saying, the one I invested in? The one I managed to pick?
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube by the way I absolutely love Vivintu I think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
On the face of it, it sounds like a great idea. I mean, if you think about... The most valuable companies in the world are essentially toll booths, right? Amazon makes a ton of their money sort of saying, all right, rent our cloud services. But the real toll is that if you want to have access to half of the U.S. e-commerce market, you got to be on our platform. And then we just collect a toll.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
It used to be 24% of third-party revenues when you put your shoe company on their platform. Now it's about they get 45% because you have one toll road, they're the toll booth. If you want to reach online consumers, there's two big toll booths. There's Meta and there's Google. They collect a toll to reach every consumer that's increasingly spending their day online.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
So I love this idea of an analog toll that says, okay, We get you coming and going across this incredible feat of engineering and leadership, the Panama Canal.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
But you got to think to get to propel through the water a several thousand metric ton vessel and have it go another whatever it is, 6,000 miles or 8,000 miles around this thing versus just slip through that little ditch we dug through Panama.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
If they can figure out a way to collect money on the in and the out, I've never heard a transportation company say, the Panama Canal has gotten too expensive, so we're just going to take the long way.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
It was such an attempt to drape yourself in social justice while offering something pretty borderline fraudulent. They were saying that we take a portion of your credit card fees and invest in sustainable companies.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I would have just thought that they believe that their average price per vessel of $341,000 that's charged to get through the Panama Canal, that they believe they can take that $341,000 number much higher.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And if you read their website, and we got some financial information, we dug in, this was a shitty little credit card company charging onerous fees, claiming to do something they weren't doing and saying, oh, but we're a new economy company. And they had famous investors, they had actors.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I didn't immediately connect that this gets them in Trump's good graces, but I can see the argument. If so, I can't imagine they would make this sort of capital outlay. I think that would be being a bad fiduciary just to cozy up to a guy who's going to be in office another three years and nine months, and quite frankly, in about two years.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
A friend of mine, it ends up, was an investor and called me and sort of, I don't want to say put pressure on me, that said, do you want to speak to management? I think you got this wrong. I said to him, I said, we'll just call him Bob. I'm like, Bob, this is a fucking fraud. This is WeWork with a climate change veneer smeared over it.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I thought that was going to get more attention than the WeWork post because I thought it was even more obvious a fraud.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
,,,,,, ,,,,,,, The reality is tech. You're an investor in tech. You're an investor in U.S. tech. People who are tracking South African value stocks aren't listening to this podcast. People who track American markets, which are dominated by tech, are listening to this podcast, meaning that you at Elson, if you were really, really smart about diversification, you would not be investing in U.S.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
tech because you are very tied. This is what I didn't understand when I was your age. I was so overinvested in US tech. Running a brand strategy firm in Northern California, my entire livelihood was tied to the fortunes of tech. All my clients were either Kleiner Perkins portfolio companies or HP or Apple or, you know, I had these big kind of US tech companies.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And then because that's what I knew and I thought, oh, this is, This is where the future is. I'd take all my excess cash flow and I'd buy tech stocks. So when 2000 came, I ended up going from being worth a lot of money for a 30-year-old, 36, to being worth negative $2 or $3 million in the space of about three months. So we are overinvested in U.S.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
tech by virtue of the fact of what we do for a living. So I'm going to take many of my—basically everything that's not nailed to the ground right now—
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Mercedes is a great company, trading at a fairly low multiple. Porsche is on sale relative to where it was. L'Oreal is an amazing company. Shell, BP. There's a lot of... LVMH has come off a lot. That's not value, but it's come off a lot. There are a lot of great European companies. I'm very excited about Europe. A lot of this is confirmation bias. But I think Europe has been...
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
God, like community-based EBITDA, WeWork.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
We've had this conversation. Europe has been left for dead. It's not. I spent a lot of time in Europe, incredible universities, a lot of very hardworking people. It doesn't have the risk capital it should, but I think that's going to change. I think PE is getting their green glands going. And I think they're finally going to start acting like a union and take advantage of their size.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
So I'm very excited about Europe. And I'm very, you know, the bottom line is American tech is still going to do really well. It's just too fucking expensive.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I want you to make a prediction, Ed, and I think you just made one.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
So I'm excited to see you in Texas. The last time I was in Texas, I was in Lubbock and I came across a sheep farm and there was a farmer fucking a sheep on the side of the road. And I said, in New York, we shear sheep. And he said, I'm not shearing her with anyone. I'll see you in Austin. I'll see you in the great state of Texas.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I loved Adam Newman's initial redefinition of EBITDA. And it was like, earnings before everything else, earnings before Dolly Parton, earnings before March Madness. It was like, let's pretend that profits are top line revenues before expenses. Let's just get rid of this pesky thing called expenses so we can say, pretend that we're profitable.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Today's number, $145 million. The co-founder of fintech startup Aspiration was arrested last week for allegedly conspiring to defraud his investors of $145 million. By the way, we call bullshit on this company. Four years ago. Speaking of climate change, Ed, what do climate change deniers and pedophiles have in common? What's that? They're both fucking the next generation. Ah, that's good.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
But yeah, I appreciate the recognition and drinks on me this week in Austin.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
It just makes sense. This is part of capitalism, and that is they need to consolidate, bulk up, and then cut costs. These companies should have one back end as far as news, and if they have different front-facing... brands that appeal to different audiences, that's fine. But last year, Disney's linear networks revenue declined 9% and operating income was down 16%. They're not alone here. U.S.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
linear TV advertising will decrease an estimated 4% annually through 2030, which doesn't seem like a lot. But when it's going for another Five years, 4%, it means it's going to lose a quarter of its revenue or a fifth. And that means, you know, that's just real pain because some of those costs are fixed.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
So you're talking probably, they're probably going to shed another 20 or 30% of their workforce over the next five years. I just had lunch with a fairly famous news anchor who is fantastic at what she does. And she's one of the lucky ones. She's still making a lot of money, but I think her salary got cut by 30%. And you're seeing cuts across the most famous anchors of like 20% to 80%.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Joy Reid, Chuck Todd, Jim Acosta, and Lester Holt, all fantastic at what they do or did, all too expensive. And George Stephanopoulos, his contract's been renewed, though he had to take a pay cut from his previous $20 million deal. He's lucky he got his deal a few months ago. I think it'd even be less now. Rachel Maddow renegotiated. She is the friends or the anchor of MSNBC.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
She had to reduce her pay from $30 to $25 million. Yeah, cry me a river. That's not too much. Anyway, so look, the market is doing what it's supposed to do. It's reshaping. the winners and the losers. You're going to see, I think, private equity come in here. You're going to see a lot of consolidation.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I think Disney is a survivor because of this unique singular positioning around family and just the incredible IP they have. I also wonder if this is an interesting take private opportunity. But anyways, what are your thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Well, if you look at means of production, and I did some analysis here, we're making three to four times the revenue per employee. And granted, we're small, but the means of production are so much less expensive in podcasting.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Now, granted, there aren't that many winners, but if you can figure out kind of a new media platform and keep it kind of lean and mean, you can just see what's happening here. It's just incredibly... challenging for these folks. I describe, I was jokingly describing the anchors as pilots for Pan Am in the 70s and that it's high prestige, they're banging stewardesses, everyone's impressed by them.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
But I'm like, your days are numbered. Pretty sure you're going to be, you know, on an Embraer from Lubbock, Texas to Amarillo making 38,000 bucks a year. That's a great analogy. I personally, the way I register it, Is 10 years ago when I was asked to come on CNN, I just was so excited. I remember the first time Anderson had me on his show and I was so I thought, wow, I've made it.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
And now, unless it's someone I'm personal friends with or I don't go on because it's like the juice isn't worth the squeeze to come across as intelligent and the work and the prep you need to do. Not that many people are watching it.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Great joke. Yeah, the pedophile stuff never gets old. What's going on with you? What are you up to?
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Plus, I mean, you're literally, you're going to be exposed to dozens and dozens of new fans. Yeah. 5 a.m. on CNN. That is literally like a 90-year-old that can't sleep.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I think that's great. Congratulations. I didn't know about that.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
But yeah, broadcast television. What's interesting, though, is it still, you'll see this, there's still a prestige value. And that is when people see you on, I used to go on Fox every week. And when people see you on TV, for some reason, there's just this veneer of prestige, romanticism, or credibility that you don't get anywhere unless, of course, you have a guest role on The White Lotus.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Let's bring this back to me. Let's bring this back to me. Anyways, Linear TV, it's not doing well.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Captain fucking obvious.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I think they're just overstored. I think they're doing the right thing. Again, capitalism in the markets at work. I can't believe this thing was ever worth $100 billion. What I'd be curious, and I don't know if you have any information on this, is that my go-to as well, this is Amazon, another victim of Amazon. But I don't really know. Do you have any thoughts on what's actually going on here?
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
I mean, clearly, they're going to cut costs. They're probably going to change management and severely reduce costs. And the issue, the hard part about retail is that you have to enter into these very risky business contracts called a lease. And everybody wants the same real estate. And the owners of this real estate are smart at maximizing their revenue by signing up for a 10-year lease.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
So when you pick... I mean, you have to be very thoughtful. So, and kind of the history of retail is restoration hardware goes public and they think we got to grow. So they sign a bunch of bad leases. They're really promiscuous. And then similar to Walgreens, three and four Walgreens are not profitable. And it's a 10-year weeping sore.
Prof G Markets
Has Apple Lost Its Mojo? + BlackRock’s $23B Bet on the Panama Canal
Unless you declare bankruptcy, you can't get out of that lease. So you're just losing money. So real estate, what are they going to do? They're going to let a ton of these leases expire. and hopefully shore it up.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Buying a house has long been considered the best way to build wealth and move into true adulting.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Waymo's been here for a while. And the notion that we're all waiting for Tesla autonomous, I took a Waymo taxi six months ago in LA. By the way, extraordinary. My first ride in this thing. And we get to this intersection where there's been an accident. I'm like, oh, great. I'm going to be the first like autonomous guy taken out. I'm like, this is so fitting for what I do.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Prof G takes his first autonomous Uber and gets, you know, T-boned by a bus because the fucking Waymo couldn't process a billion points. There's a cop with cones and waving with illuminated batons saying, okay, you need to go around the crash car into the wrong side of the road and to get around this accident. And I thought, there's no way this thing's going to be able to process this.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And it was very hesitant. It drove like what I would imagine a scared 16-year-old girl would approach the situation. That's sexist.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
No, my boy's decided you can make a left on a red light if you just stop first. That's what he's decided. It's like, wait, you just need to stop. And then you go, no, no, no, no. Anyway, so this thing went out very hesitant, and it figured it out. So the notion that we're waiting, it's just so ridiculous. Tesla, in my view, has already lost. Waymo's doing a great job. Uber has massive...
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I mean, the number of Teslas is dwarfed by the number of Uber rides out there every day. And you got to give, I think Dara Khosrowshahi has done a fantastic job because in their DNA, if you think about a lot of the companies that have outperformed the market, they're asset light, right? They don't have big cap backs. Airbnb, Uber said, no, we don't want to be in the business of owning real estate.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
We don't want to be in the business of owning cars. We're going to leverage other people's CapEx investment.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
So Dara said, rather than go into AI and announce big partnerships and that we're putting $10 billion into AI and autonomous, he just said, no, I'll draft off of other people's CapEx, in this case, Google and Waymo, which has spent kind of 15 years and tens of billions of dollars, and I'll give them – I'll co-brand. I'll have an offering. This is kind of how you do it.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Are you watching? I don't even know who's in the... Claire, do you know who's in the Super Bowl? By the way, Claire, I have a... Oh my God, I just realized. You're in my house, Claire. I literally thought she has the same climbing wall I have.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And no one's complaining that Apple didn't go deep into AI spending. They said, OK, similar to how Uber evaluated autonomous and said there are other people spending more money then we need to. We'd be playing catch up. Why don't we just become a remora fish off of that giant spending?
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And despite the deep seek meltdown, Apple has not registered a loss in their stock because they never decided to get into this arms race. So I really, I'm shocked. I think Uber arguably, I don't want to say it's been the biggest turnaround, but I think that You needed someone sort of crazy and irreverent and provocative and build fast and break things in Travis Kalanick.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I don't think he gets enough credit for what he envisioned and what he built. I think it's extraordinary. But Dara came in and has just made a series of very what I'd call smart, thoughtful moves. I was about to sneeze. Sorry. That's my pre-ketamine face. By the way, if you run into me tonight and I like me, it means I've tried the ketamine.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Instead of my screensaver, I have a picture of Preet Bharara in his phone number because he's my one call if I get into trouble. So I used to be my boys on my screensaver. Now it's going to be Preet because if I get really fucked up, I'm calling him. He just seems like very responsible and he can get me out of any bad situation.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Last year, Hooters closed dozens of restaurants because of rising food and labor costs.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup. Episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube. By the way, I absolutely love Vivintu. I think she does a great job.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Here in the kids' room. I do have a climbing wall, and my kids have climbed—my kids climbed for a good 30 minutes, and now it's just a decorative piece that cost me about 40 ZipRecruiter ads.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I love Spotify. I think I picked it as one of my stock picks five years ago. I went flat for three years, so I got it wrong. But there are very few companies that are able to take an entire medium. and distill it down to an app, a searchable app. I can find anything on Spotify. And people say, well, Apple and Amazon have done the same thing. But to your point, they've really innovated.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
The rap thing, I thought, I'm not entirely sure how you connect rap to more revenues. I thought it was cool. And I like Spotify saying, by the way, you listen to Tom Petty and some DJs and that's about it. But how does that—I'm curious. I don't understand the mechanics of how that translates to more revenue. Tell me, young person, what is happening on Spotify?
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Okay, the handbag you can probably manage without. But what about a house? Surely that's actually good, right? We're going to find out this week on Explain It To Me. New episodes every Sunday morning, wherever you get your podcasts.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
That's right, Chiefs and Eagles. Chiefs and Eagles.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Let me just give you a little insight into the role that streaming music plays in mating. If you're ever at home with your girlfriend and you're thinking, I don't want to have kids and I don't want to have sex.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Just play ad-supported Pandora. Yeah. Nothing says do not mate with me. You are taking the evolutionary pool down a couple notches if you have sex with someone who has ad-supported Pandora. I play, I love, I still have ad-supported streaming radio and I think it's hilarious. I play it and I'm like, oh my God, the commercials are so bad. Listen to this commercial.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I've never actually been a sports fan until my kids— I decided to give up golf and watching all sports and poured into fitness and trying to— Spend more time with clients such that we could develop a father-son parasocial relationship, and they'd pay me millions of dollars to consult. And then I could, at some point, buy one quarter of a Gulfstream. You know what I'm doing tonight?
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Anyways, but back to, I'm shocked. I thought you would have had Spotify. I absolutely love Spotify. And also they have the best party. Just so you know, they have the best party at Cannes, Ed. Oh, really? I'll take you. You can be my date.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Well, isn't that fucking precious? Well, here, if you... And if you get in front of a group of kids in high school, tell them not to be music artists because it's a shitty industry with too many people fighting over too few revenues and a series of platforms that are developed in a monopoly. So... Okay. The notion that's... That's great virtue signaling. You know, good for you.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And it's not going to mean dick. It's not... These guys are doing their job. If you wanted... All right. Are you sincere? Pull your shit off of Spotify. Are you really sincere about helping an event? Call your friends. Do you hang out with Beyonce? Do you know Taylor Swift? And pull your shit off of Spotify. Because as long as you have oligopolies, they're going to extract more and more.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And they find that the best way to get retention is to just consistently recommend Taylor Swift over and over. And the notion that she's going to bully the record labels, Spotify is not worth more than all the record labels. So if she really wanted to have an impact, let me do some virtue signaling.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I think I'm going to do ketamine tonight. Really? I went out with some friends last night, and they were having such a good time. And I'm like, what are you drinking? They're like, oh, no, we don't drink. We're on ketamine. I'm like, really? And I'm having trouble, Ed. Really? I'm having trouble disassociating.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
When Spotify decided to not fact check Joe Rogan, who would have one legitimate doctor on one day and then an illegitimate doctor the next day and create all sorts of vaccine hesitancy and false equivalences, I called them and said, we're pulling Prof G off of Spotify. I pulled my shit down and it cost us somewhere between a quarter of a half a million.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
So yeah, put your money where your fucking mouth is. Pull off of Spotify. But this notion that you're going to shame people in the audience to... paying artists who aren't making them any money, more money, yeah, good luck with that. Have at it.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I think we're in the middle of a second insurrection and no one's talking about it, and it's freaked me out and got me really upset. So I think I need to disassociate, and I'm hearing good things about ketamine. Do your friends do ketamine, Ed?
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
We need a different term than boomery. Look, the digitization of markets results in a consolidation of winner-take-most environment. You digitize retail, you end up with one company with 50% of all e-commerce. You digitize connections and socialization online, you end up... With one company, Meta, that owns two-thirds of all social interactions online.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
You digitize information, one company ends up with 93% share of search. You digitize mating and online dating, and 80% to 90% of all swipe rights happens amongst the 10% of most attractive males, right? Men are less choosy. Women are more choosy. They all want the same guy. And the same thing's happening on these channels.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
When you digitize a platform, Taylor Swift gets more listen, more listen time than all of classical music now. Taylor Swift is bigger than classical music or jazz, the entire genre.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And it's because the algorithms, they consolidate and they say, okay, when everyone has access to everything, the very best, and Taylor Swift is the very best, according to hopped up 14-year-olds on sugar, they consolidate the market. Now, I don't know if there's anything you can do.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
The only things you can really do about this on a systemic level is to make sure you have a really robust FTC and DOJ that makes sure there's a lot of competition, such that you transfer money back from the monopolies to the artists, to the means of production, to the labor force.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
The other thing you can do is have minimum wage of 25 bucks an hour, such that if these people have side hustles, they're at least making a good living. But let me just clue young people in. The world does not owe you your passion. And you don't have the right, the birthright to make music. You have the birthright, in my opinion, to have healthcare. I mean, let's start there.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
There's a few things I do that are illegal, and I continue to engage in them, Ed.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Healthcare, universal childcare, you don't have a birthright to be an independent music producer or independent musician and make money. The vanity industries will always have an overinvestment in human capital and there'll be a small number and increasingly, unfortunately, small number of people. What I think you have to do is say, okay, if you're the backup drummer on a Kellogg's ad, you're
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
They have to pay you at least 25 bucks an hour. Anyways, I think this is a social issue and we need to break up monopolies of which I'm not sure you could say Spotify is a monopoly. Everything's going Hunger Games. The winners leave it a remarkable life and everyone else dies a slow death.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And if you want to change that, you have to make systemic change at education levels, antitrust levels, but believing that somehow shaming the record labels or Spotify into paying people nothing. You know why they pay these people nothing? Because they can.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I know you did it the legal way. Pot's legal now, so yeah. Edibles are legal, so that's not a problem. Right, yeah, exactly. Actually, I don't do that much that's illegal.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And by the way, the only way it gets better is if it becomes such a shitty business that just people don't go into music and over time they have to pay them more. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I was hoping to stick something up with my – I was hoping to find an attractive woman with some gloves handy.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Oh, that's right. We have a team meeting. You're all presenting your business plan.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Get to the headlines, Ed.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
,,,,,,, . . . . . ., the, P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P. P,實 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , a in I think we want to be, we could be number one in business. We're talking about, by the way, in a meeting today, folks, we're talking about Ed going daily.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
We're talking about doing a daily property markets to talk about the markets because the news keeps coming. But I think we could be number one in business. We're in the top 10 in business and occasionally pop into the top five. But that guy, David Ramsey, who keeps selling expensive mutual funds and saying that you can pick a mutual fund.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I love shitposting our competition. That's so classy, isn't it? That's so big of me. But anyways, let's go back to my prediction where I can actually lift up young people. Diary of a CEO, Stephen Barlett. He's the new Joe Rogan.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
So, that's, uh... I always know when it's coming.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
It's not sullen. It's my age. You're kidding. I'm happy. If you continue to perform like this, Daddy might be able to get a Gulfstream. I want to motivate you. I want to keep you in the game. Super exciting. I promise to send you photos. Okay. Seriously, Ed, something to look forward to. Now get out there, little soldier.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
It's clear who the number one is in streaming, but they're all fighting to be number two. They're like, okay, the number two will survive, and it's not entirely clear who's number two.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And the race for number two is between, in my opinion, the artisanal sort of HBO that's created an incredible culture that produces kind of the water cooler zeitgeist moment of content, and then Disney, which has just such singular clear positioning around family, and then bundling Hulu and ESPN. I think it's ESPN+. It's a pretty good offering.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Now, they were able to raise prices of 4%, which isn't a huge price increase, but it is a price increase, and basically... They lost $700,000, but they would argue that's flat. That does kind of communicate that they have some pricing power. I would argue that's a good thing. Netflix's churn is 2% while Disney's is 5%. That may not sound like a lot, but it's huge.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
It means that every three years, Disney has to reinvent their entire customer base that Netflix does not. In addition... you have this incredible transfer or means of production. What do I mean? What Japan did Detroit, Netflix is doing to Hollywood.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And that is Netflix announced that the majority of their content, more than 50% of their 15 to $18 billion they spent on content is being spent and or if you will, produced overseas. They're not doing that because they like Spanish people or they want more multiculturalism in their content. They're doing it
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Because they figured out they can get a gaffer, a writer, an actor, a producer, sound engineer, studio construction folks for 40% to 60% of the cost of what it is in the U.S. Whereas Disney, the percentage of content spent overseas is 4%. But what Netflix has said is that if I have every week, not a 10, but I have just a shit ton of 7s and 8s, People don't cancel.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
You do start to see fatigue. I would even argue... Like Deadpool and Wolverine, I love both those actors. I think they're fantastic. And I'm like, I'm not sure I'm gonna see the next one. I'm like, okay, I think I'm sort of done with this franchise. Anyways, what's really interesting here though is that the parks did well.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And that is, and if you think about it, AI can't replace the parks, or at least I don't think it can. There's still something especially wonderful or especially horrible if you're the parent about Walt Disney World, right? Netflix is going to have a tough time. And to Universal's credit, they spent the money and the decades to build those franchise businesses.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
But Atoms are, this is your notion, that Atoms are more important than bits. But the Disney business right now, the strongest part of the business, as far as I can tell, is the parks, the cruises, and the resorts. Because it's hard for Netflix to spin up a cruise ship business. These things take a long time and they're good at the in-person stuff. Absolutely.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Today's number, $8 million. That's how much a 30-second ad spot on the Super Bowl cost this year, an all-time record. Ed, nothing says American exceptionalism like four hours of beer, boner pill ads, and men giving each other CTE for our entertainment. It's essentially Rome, but instead of Lions, we have Taylor Swift, Ed. We have Taylor Swift.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Yeah, but they can license content. I mean, for example, Harry Potter, Lego. I think Lego licensed its IP to someone who knows how to run those parks. I don't know if it's a division of Lego. Maybe it is. Legoland. By the way, you'll see when you have sons. Legoland, in my opinion, is the least awful of all of them. Legoland's amazing. That was my favorite growing up. Oh, really?
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Oh, yeah, that's right. I forgot how young you are. But I took my sons to the Lego hotel, and it was pretty cool. It's epic. I love the image of little Ed at Legoland. Right? Building's scary. You're like, I can build something bigger than that. Anyways.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Oh, not for a while. If you had to guess. I would guess... Fall of 26. Yeah, it's going to take a while.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
No, I am. You will see soon. I do have a cameo in what is the hottest show on HBO in several seasons. I do have a voice cameo. So I'm excited about that. We'll have a party. You'll all come over. We'll all celebrate and we'll watch it together. None of that is true. None of that is true. But it's a nice thought, isn't it? If I was kind of a more loving and engaged boss.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Get out of my climbing room, Claire. Don't touch anything. Anyway, sorry. Go ahead.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Isn't it? I mean, at least that's what society wants us to think. Gotta get a Birkin, gotta get a home, you know.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I would argue that the space is just getting started. The GLP-1 drugs, the category, everything I've read, I just think this technology is incredible. The next sort of question, though, is how many competitors are in the space?
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
And also, Aswath Damodaran, who we had on last week, made an interesting point, and that is for him, Nova Nordisk, his view was they kind of slipped and fell on Bagovin and Zempik.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
I mean, Meta showed an ability to create another or acquire another product in Instagram, right? Google launched YouTube. You know, these companies, Microsoft has an incredible cloud. These companies have shown an ability to innovate more than, you know, repeatedly, and his view was Novo Nordisk hasn't really demonstrated that.
Prof G Markets
Spotify’s First Year of Profitability + Is Google Losing its Edge?
Welcome to Property Markets. That was sort of a thoughtful Super Bowl-themed intro. Banter. Super Bowl. Do you care?
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
It's not, because every psychiatrist and psychologist, and Daniel Kahneman specifically, has shown that above a certain amount of money, you lose no happiness. Any more money doesn't make you any happier, so having a higher tax rate doesn't make you any less happy. And also, these tax rates are lower than they were in the 50s, 60s, 70s, and even in the 80s at those income levels.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
So I think tax rates could actually come down if you forced everyone to pay those tax rates. And that is you could lower the top tax rates on people if everyone paid them. You could lower corporate tax rates if everyone paid that rate.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Met this woman, really interesting woman, nice. I was very attracted to her. And I had this big deck. I lived at one Greenwich, and I had basically this like 700-foot apartment with a 3,000-square-foot deck, see above, single and desperate. And I used to have parties and people, and I met this woman, super hot, seemed super cool. Yeah. Asked her out. Kept asking her out.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Oh, Elliot, they're smart people. And Jessica, who runs her activist group, is a really smart guy. And marketing is important, but be clear, this is all marketing. I'm not sure. I think BP was actually, so I ran a brand strategy firm called Profit. And I think BP was a client. And the running joke around the office was beyond petroleum.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
And they'd like, you know, the ad team would hire an Asian dude, put him in a jacket and run a commercial talking about how algae is going to fuel the future automobile.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
They never spent a lot of money. I think right now, what is the research you guys did? That basically BP is allocating somewhere between three and 5% of their total capex renewables. That's just not a lot. They were never not in oil and gas. And this is basically saying, OK, get rid of all of it. Stop pretending. Stop running the ads beyond petroleum. Just say petroleum. It's here.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Yeah, there's no substance here. This is them pretending for two decades, deciding that the big sunflower beyond petroleum would make them seem warm and cuddly as they were belching more carbon into the air than anyone but maybe Exxon and Chevron, because there is nothing, there is nothing like the arbitrage you get from fossil fuels in terms of the ability to do work, move earth,
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
And finally, like, I'm getting nothing back here. And she's like, I have something I think you're going to like. And she showed up and said, I'm going to handle everything. And we went to this place in, I think it was the West Village or so, go underground. Yeah. It's like 300 bucks for the dude and nothing for the woman. I'm like, oh, that's going to be interesting.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
create different substances based on this incredibly cheap supply where you get a barrel, an absolute barrel of this shit that can be made into almost anything or provide energy to make almost anything. And the barrel costs 70 bucks. I mean, it's just so cheap. And these guys, these companies are just cash juggernauts. And basically, Elliot said, stop the bullshit. Stop the virtue signaling.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Stop the posturing. You're a petroleum company. You always have been.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
We saw a lot of those energy stocks crash. with DeepSeek when all of a sudden people thought, oh, we might not need as much energy. And what you're saying is that was a bit of a headache. In fact, we're still going to need a massive amount of energy. And I met with a guy who's an energy guy and he said, you got nuclear wrong.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
And they give you a towel, and she changed into a towel. And anyway, she ended up making out and fooling around with a woman.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
He said, and Mia kind of confirmed this in her notes, that the lag to bring energy capacity, nuclear online is five, 10 years out at a minimum. And that the real play is liquid natural gas, LNG. And that you want to be looking at that space. And it'll be very interesting to see. There's the side note that really fascinated me.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I don't know if you saw, but the number one producer of wind power now is Texas. And we should do a deeper dive at some point on the economics of wind power because it's politically, quote unquote, incorrect or politically sober, whatever the term you want to use is, Texas is. The economics of wind have made it such that it is now in many ways a better bet than these dirty fossil fuels.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
That was my pick. New York story. NYU professor, would you let your kid take class with me?
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
So we want to introduce you to another show from our network and your next favorite money podcast for ours, of course, Net Worth and Chill. Host Vivian Tu is a former Wall Street trader turned finance expert and entrepreneur. She shares common financial struggles and gives actionable tips and advice on how to make the most of your money.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Past guests include Nicole Yoder, a leading fertility doctor who breaks down the complex world of reproductive medicine and the financial costs of those treatments, and divorce attorney Jackie Combs, who talks about love and divorce and why everyone should have a prenup.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
episodes of Net Worth and Chill are released every Wednesday listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube by the way I absolutely love Vivian too I think she does a great job
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Oh, I was so excited. I think I still probably text her, saying if she'll give me another shot at trapeze.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
You had it. You summarized it perfectly, Ed, and that is the market is so used to these companies blowing away expectations that when they don't beat expectations, they don't meet expectations. And NVIDIA beat expectations on the top and bottom line, and I think the stock's off today. I mean, it's not off hugely, but you summarized it perfect.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Expectations have become such that you're expected to massively blow away expectations. But I didn't take a ton away from this. Do you have any thoughts?
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Actually, also, my other New York joke. You know, New York is just full of rats. I made actually friends with this rat, and this ridiculously hot woman walked by, and I'm like, did you see the ass on that woman? He said, well, actually, I'm a tit rat myself.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
It's great IR, it's great investor relations to turn a bug into a feature, right? That, A, confronting it head on. Let's talk about DeepSeek, and this is why DeepSeek is... It's good for us. It's a very well-run company. He's an outstanding CEO. I think Josh Brown said that it's up 100x, and I guess Josh has owned it for 10 years?
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I have no idea, but... I know I met Josh through his partner, Barry Ritholtz, who's also a very smart guy. And they're trying to be sort of a hybrid between a hedge fund and their business model and Vanguard. And that is every time their AUM goes up, they charge less money, but they're very smart. They're not stock pickers.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Well, I guess they're stock pickers to a certain extent, but they're very much. They're sober about it. Yeah. They're one of the few funds I've ever thought investing in and even paying fees because they're just very sober kind of level-headed guys and they give it kind of, give it to you straight. And oh yeah, those guys are like fun to go out and eat beef and drink bourbon with.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
They're such like Long Island guys. Like, I don't even like basketball.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Look, it's an incredible company. I'm pissed off I never owned it. I have a difficult time seeing where it goes from here based on how just expensive it has become.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Ah, that's why you come here.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
You know what would be a total gangster move is if Elliot convinced NVIDIA to become a petroleum company. That'd be a test.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
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Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I can't help it. I'm a broken clock here. Tesla is imploding. I think the stock is below $200 in the next six months.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I hate this motherfucker. I really, I don't know if you've sensed that.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Yeah. I have no emotional distance here. I'm changing my prediction. I think this thing goes below 150. Oh, keep it. Keep the original. I can't help it. It's at a P of 180, and its sales are off 75% in Germany. And across Europe, they're off dramatically. I think the car line is really stale. To be fair, the stock is still up 50% over the last 12 months, right? It had a huge run up.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
And the market, you could also steel man and be a weak steel man and be more like an iron man or a hay man. It's clear his activities have really hurt him in Europe and in California, but probably the market was looking for an excuse to take this stock down.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I think what will be the real interesting test here in terms of the association or affiliation of an individual's brand and their company is if Starlink starts to have contracts canceled. What do you make of this, Ed?
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I think that moment happened 48 hours ago. I think it was Bill Burr. He's probably my favorite comedian. I think the guy's just a genius and he's fearless. And he's been known for being just incredibly politically incorrect. And he's a favorite... of what I'll call sort of the intelligent manosphere, and that is he just mocks the shit out of Democrats and political correctness.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
And, you know, basically every viewer of MSNBC was grabbing their pearls every time they watch a Bill Burr clip. And he was just totally unafraid to be totally politically incorrect. And he went on a rant, and we should play that. We'll find the clip now.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I think the worm has turned against this guy. I think that moment you're describing happened. 48 hours ago. I still think people think he's invincible. There's no such thing.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Today's number, $49 million. That's how much New York City's congestion pricing tolls brought in during the program's first month. This is an actual true story, Ed. When I first moved to New York, my first date was with a woman named Martha who took me to, no joke, a sex club. And one of us had sex, and it wasn't me, Ed. That's a true story. That's not a true story. No, it's a true story.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Yeah, but you got it right. They paid a lot of taxes. If he wants to take a victory lap for it and make a point, good for him. And he has said for a long time, there's no reason I should pay a lower tax rate than my assistant. But his obligation to his shareholders, no one's going to disarm unilaterally. I believe tax rates should go up, but I engage in tax avoidance.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I'm constantly thinking about strategies to minimize my tax bill. And there's a ton of ways you can do it legally when you're rich. And what we've seen is the tax code go from something like 400 pages to 7,000. And those incremental 6,600 pages are there basically to fuck people of your generation and transfer more wealth to my generation and to corporations. And
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Cruise lines have weaponized various loopholes. They pay less than 2% for all the tax rates. General Motors in 2023 paid a tax rate of 5%. T-Mobile, which I would think was a very profitable company, pays an effective tax rate of 0.4%. Every company is going to do the best they can to pay as little as they can. That's their job. We're not doing our job.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
And that is there have been so many loopholes stuffed into the tax code. And what the misdirect is people think it's about tax rates. It's not. It's about the tax code. And I believe that as a percentage of GDP taxes or corporations are paying the lowest taxes since like 1938. And at some point, you got to fund the government. And there's two things to do.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
There's either deficits, right, or you got to charge more in different types of consumption taxes. And I've said this for a long time. There's some mythology in the tax code. The bottom half pays almost no federal income tax. They pay a lot of consumption and sales tax, but almost no federal income tax.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
The people who get most screwed in our tax system are actually most of the people who work at Prop G Media. And that is you guys make very good livings, but it's all current income and you live in a high tax domain, New York City. So even as young as you are, you make exceptionally good livings for people your age, even though you may not feel that way.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
You're probably paying 30 to 40 percent tax rates at this point. That's a lot of money for a young person.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
But once you make the jump to light speed and get really rich, you can leverage all these different loopholes, whether it's 1031 exchanges where you can take real estate and roll it into a new investment, a new real estate investment without incurring a capital gain, triggering a capital gain.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Even thinking of yourself as a stock, you produce, I have stocks that produce, say, 100 grand a year in dividends or growth. That gets to grow, not the dividends, but the growth grows tax deferred. Whereas if you're an individual making $100,000, you lose 20% of it every year at least.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
So the tax code has basically said, all right, the bottom 99, we're going to basically fund the government with the kind of 50 to 99th percentile. And then once you get above the 99th, your tax rates plummet. And the reason why America puts up with it is that we're so optimistic that people believe at some point they're going to be in the 0.1%.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
But corporations, I mean, we just have two choices here. We either need to cut spending and raise taxes or have massive deficits, which are And it's important that we communicate this to people, nothing but taxes on you and Claire and the rest of the young people of this organization, just kind of laying in wait. So I find the whole – I think taxes are a really important conversation.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
The club was called Trapeze.
Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
I would like to see the best solution would be an AMT, an alternative minimum tax on corporations and the rich. And that is if you make over, say, $10 million, we want you to pay – A 50% AMT. Whatever loopholes you can come up with, great, but you're paying at least 50%. You know, well, that's a lot, Scott.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
By the way, you know what I do when I walk? I started walking in Central Park at dusk, you know? Okay. And what I do is I flex my lats and hold my head up really high because I'm scared somebody's, you know, to make myself appear bigger than I am.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Me too, me too. But your energy and your work ethic, and you're like, You do have so much energy, even talking to you now and with the kids and working and traveling and getting up at five in the morning and working 14 hours. Like, where do you get that drive? Where do you get the energy? Youth. It's youth. Methamphetamine.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Yeah, thanks. Sorry, JB. Yeah, you're not a karate chopper. Scotty probably a little bit more than me, yeah. I don't care about that as much.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
We are three guys talking today. Hey, hey. We, one of us, just might be gay.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
No, never invited. That's terrific. I invited you. You had to work, but I said you and Franny come over when Franny was in. Just the once.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
So Carrie, about the anxiety thing, because I have a little bit of that too. I'm much better at it, at dealing with it. But how do you deal with it? Okay. I mean, sometimes these guys know it comes up quite often. But how do you deal with it? Like, do you have tools that you good, your go-to tools?
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
I have one of those faces. But I love a good love story. So to the extent you feel comfortable, what changed from the, you know, when you try to open the beer for you?
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
No, but like what changed for you 10 years later that didn't spark for you the first time?
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
No, I'm distracted by shiny objects. Anything with frosting on it. Oh, my God.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Because I'm just going to my house to go sit down and eat and then go back to my house.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
But I loved that. And then when it was revealed that it was you in Star Wars, I mean, I was blown away. Like, that was the coolest thing.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Go. I mean, I was watching it, and even Scotty and I were like, who is this? I recognize your voice, but I couldn't, because we didn't see your face. I was like... Did you ever reveal yourself? I don't think you did.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
And then, I haven't seen Cocaine Bear and I really, really want to see it, but I heard it's great and it's been out for a while.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Kara, what are you excited about that's coming up other than the diplomat? What are you going to do the rest of the day?
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Yeah, I love that. By the way, I've never been to Brooklyn. I want to go check it out.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
She seems like one of those people that everybody wants to be friends with.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
I could never do it, but I get like... I don't like jeans or pants that are super tight, you know, that they're constricting.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
I love it. Awesome. And by the way, she drives her entire career. Like, she makes the decisions. Speaking of driving, by the way, I sent you guys a video when we were in New York of an Uber driver. Do you remember that?
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Remember that? And he was really kind and he was from China. And his real true, this is a true story. His real name is spelled B-A-I-Y-I. And I got in the car and I asked him how you pronounce it and I sent it to you. Wait, wait, spell it again. B-A-I-Y-I. Yeah. B-A-I-Y-I.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Everybody knows. Five, six, seven, eight. What are you talking about? We are three guys talking today. One of us is definitely gay. Hey, hey.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Yeah, yeah. Are you good at adjusting time, different time zones? Or are you like still on jet lag?
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Wait, Carrie, do you remember that one time? This is like decades ago. You know what I'm going to say. No. You were with an acting coach and you came out and I was going in and that's when we first met. This is like 25, 30 years ago, like a super long time ago. Which acting coach? I don't remember. But it was her house. It was this acting coach's house, and it was like a back.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
It was like a guest house in the back. It was that crazy? And you were coming out, and I was going in.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
It's funny you say that. No, because Scott and I had a long conversation about it. Can we have the short version? Yes. I mean...
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Yeah, for sure. Or I got a monologue. I need a funny monologue and a dramatic monologue. Right.
SmartLess
"Keri Russell"
Yes, right. For the first time ever, I've been kind of getting used to it. I understand. Because I associate the city with work and work only. Right. And because I've had some extra downtime, I was like, oh, I finally get it. Like, I'd never walked through Central Park. I walk through Central Park all the time now. I was like, God, this place is huge and it's beautiful.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
I do. And it's a completely different thing as I'm sure you'd attest, Jason, because actually early on, I remember when I started doing Party Down, which was before Parks, and thank you very much.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
We've never done this bit before, and this will be the last time, but we're just going to go ahead and milk it till it's a stone, okay? They like to party down so much.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Right. So we're doing a scene early in that show and we were just starting. And up to that point, I had roles where, you know, where you're trying to like stuff everything into a couple of scenes. Yeah. And so... I was doing this scene where Lizzie Kaplan and I were meeting for the first time and talking.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
And I remember the director, Fred Savage, took me aside after a couple takes and was just like, hey, man, you know, you've got all season. You can chill. Pump it. Just easy, bro. Yeah. Like, we've got all this time and you can... you're gonna be kind of, the audience is gonna go through the story with you. So you can just pull back and just like, he was essentially just saying, fucking relax.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Don't worry about it. Did that crush your spirit? Was that shaming? Well, no, it was actually, it was like the best advice I'd, gotten, but also kind of looking back, yeah, maybe in the moment, probably question everything, but looking back, it's like the best piece of advice because, you know, he's 100% right.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
And I'm sure he learned that lesson when he was like nine years old or something, but it's true. You can just take your foot off the gas a little bit. Otherwise it's going to be exhausting to watch.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Well, my mom's maiden name was Quartararo. And- So I was like, well, that's too long. I wanted to, because part Sicilian, so I wanted to have like a Sicilian last name when I was in acting school to be more, you know, to sound like Al Pacino or Robert De Niro. Yeah, yeah, of course.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Exactly. See, this guy knows what I'm talking about. Okay, so wait. So I shortened it to Cordero. And I remember being in the library at the acting school I was at and like writing Al Pacino, Robert De Niro, Adam Cordero. And being like, oh yeah, that looks right. That's cool.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Yeah, that's right. And it was with a Q too, Cordero. Ooh, I like that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
He's incredible, right? I mean, I don't play golf or follow golf, but I've certainly like... Yeah, of course. It's come up, obviously. You could do a lot worse. Yeah. Okay. To have a new house. Have you ever met him? No, but we, I remember- You got to. Way, like 20 years ago, we did it. Cool it, Will. We did an interview side by side and something.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
But you guys, he is, like you guys play golf and he's still like a great golfer, right? He's very good. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Oh, God. I've got to link up with him and take a photo. Sean, there's another Sean Hayes, too? There's a cop named Sean Hayes somewhere.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
No, I'm sure it did. I don't, I mean, I think, you know, I think when I, I was so young, like five, I guess, when it happened. Yeah, me too, five years ago.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Yeah. I've seen that documentary, and I don't remember that. I'll have to go back. Just to keep an eye out.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Santa Cruz up in the Bay Area. Right on. It's where they shot Lost Boys. Oh, that's right. That's right. That's pretty much the end of that story. Jason, did you ever shoot anything? They used to shoot stuff in the 80s up in Santa Cruz.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Go ahead, Adam. Boy, I guess it probably was, you know, just seeing movies when you're a kid and you're like, I want to do that, like Temple of Doom and stuff.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Yeah. It kind of never did. And that's why, like it was, I know it's like in California, but it may as well be like on a different planet.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
country or something like we were so far removed from like show business it felt like going and being on tv or being in the movies felt like i'm gonna go to the moon or something just right they came and shot east of eden and santa like a mini series version of east of eden in our town and i remember they like put dirt out on the streets to make them look like dirt roads and had horses and
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
horse-drawn carriages and then the actors trailers and i was like seven and i remember seeing that and just being right alone away like holy fuck and then you went to the american academy of dramatic arts how old were you when you did that 18 was that high school it was after high school
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
A bunch of shit strapped to the roof of my 68 Rambler. And— boy, what a hard career to start, Jesus Christ. Just like coming in cold and not knowing a soul.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Well, strapping stuff to the roof is like not, you know, and when you're like 20, you're not going to do a good job strapping anything anywhere. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Was it commercials first? It was background work first. I just moved from school. I moved to Hollywood and just started like- going and trying to do whatever and didn't know anyone. And we did a lot of background work and then got like a guest spot on something and then got a little agent and then just sort of, you know.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
I mean, I think part of the self-delusion you need in order to survive, you think that every time you get anything, you're like, oh, fuck, okay, now. But it turned out that... I didn't really have a career until like 15 years later.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
What was the thing? It was like this period of time where it was like Park's stepbrothers party down, like this period of like three years where these things all happened. Oh, I see.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
A bit. It was just, I remember when that started happening and I remember getting some incoming phone calls from like Mike and Polar, like, hey, do you wanna maybe, and just being like, oh, this is what it's like to actually have something going. I thought when I did murder one, I was on top of the world. Yeah, yeah. Thank you.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
course your parents and letting you go to new york to go you went to a taping or something well we went to we went to we were on like a family trip and i was just like let's go to 30 rock so i can get a letterman t-shirt and we were there didn't even think about doing the tour or anything we were just at the gift shop and my brother and i saw chris elliott walk by and we were like oh
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
And we just chased him down and he stopped and talked to us for like 20 minutes. It was amazing. No way. That's cool.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
I remember when we talked to Chris Elliott, he was talking to us for a while, and then he was like, I gotta go, but you guys should watch the show tonight. I'm gonna try something new out. And it was the first night he did his, remember he did Marlon, this really weird Marlon Brando impression? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Anyway, that was what that was. Calvert DeForest.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
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SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Please tell Abel and Archie. I doubt they remember me, but please tell them hello. I saw Abel yesterday. They're like full teenagers now.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Right. Super high like that. Yeah, like eight years later. My kids have yet to see Parks and Rec.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
We're going to strap these kids down one goddamn day. They should watch Arrested Development, and they should watch BoJack Horseman.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Adam, thank you, dude. Guys, thank you. Love you, buddy. Great to see you. Love you, too. Bye. Bye-bye. Take it easy.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Can I just ask, can I just ask, is it too late to jump in on that blackout curtains? No, no, no, please. We know you're a classic vampire. Let's hear it. Um... No, I have no stance. I don't give a shit, Adam. Really? Okay. What about Naomi? Good opener, good opener.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
No, blackout curtains in like a hotel, I can never wake up with the blackout curtains, but at home, you know, for some reason they don't really have the effect. And that was about as interesting as it got.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
No, we do have blackout curtains now that you mention it. Yes. But, you know, I'm always up early. You know, you have kids, you're up early.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
It's like, what is going on? It sounds like she wants you to wake up. Exactly.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
No, by the way, the, you know. By the way, all of you guys were, there was a whole flurry of activity around you being, what, seven minutes late. It's actually impressive. No, it's just unusual.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Yeah. Tax Act. You have a very pleasant voice. By the way, that's my first time delving into that kind of... And it is the best.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Right, but you've been doing it like at home for, like, you know, you've been, Will, you know exactly what you're doing here. Like, this is what you've been doing for a long time. Oh, yeah. Yes, that is true. It is.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
I mean, look, do you want to see something? Yeah, do you have a different mic? Oh, it's in a box. Look at that.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Germany, we all know Germany. That's where all the good mics come from. It is true.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Well, I think that he was sort of thinking a way into it would be like the workplace comedy that we've all sort of grown accustomed to as kind of its own genre. And he thought that could be a way in for audiences, like see these people working with their banter and all of that, except... none of them know who they are or what they're doing. Right. Yeah.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
And sort of that's sort of the way, and I think that's, and part of the reason he thought of me is because I've, you know, been in workplace comics.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
Yeah. I agree, that's part of what I loved about it too. And to sort of the gradual, it was a constant negotiation of how much of the iceberg do we show? First of all, season one, how far are we gonna go? And originally the season was, by the time season one ends, it was gonna be way further down the line story-wise than what it ended up being. Oh, wow.
SmartLess
"Adam Scott"
So it's constantly that thing, like how much do we want to show? How much do we want the audience to sort of follow the breadcrumbs and all that kind of stuff?
The Charlie Kirk Show
THOUGHTCRIME: Renewal of the American Dream Speech Special
Would it have been healing to stand for Mark Fogel? Might have been.
The Charlie Kirk Show
THOUGHTCRIME: Renewal of the American Dream Speech Special
I mean, the ex. I love you. You guys were blaming George W. Bush in year eight of the Obama presidency.
The Charlie Kirk Show
THOUGHTCRIME: Renewal of the American Dream Speech Special
We learned something from that. We learned something from that. He's been in office for 40-something days. I am hearing a lot of cope. These social issues, you know why he talks about them?
The Charlie Kirk Show
THOUGHTCRIME: Renewal of the American Dream Speech Special
Because they work. They're like 80-20 issues, and he's on the right side of them, and Democrats are on the wrong side of them. It worked in the campaign, and nobody... Oh, he's not talking about the right things. It worked in the inaugural. It's working in the executive orders. It's why he put it in the speech tonight. And on immigration, you're exactly right.
The Charlie Kirk Show
THOUGHTCRIME: Renewal of the American Dream Speech Special
It's his number one achievement so far. The border's effectively closed. The line of the night was they kept saying we need new legislation to secure the border, but it turns out all we really needed was a new president, without question, in my mind, top-scoring model. I just have to say... I feel like he's got to stay put.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Pete Hegseth Confirmation Hearing Watch Party
He was instrumental in 2014 and 2017 in ensuring that veterans had health care choice. The second letter submitted by Mr. Cason Sparrow, Digital Media Director of CBA from 2015 to 2017 stated, Pete brought incredible energy, focus, and a clear vision to the organization and showed everything that the team accomplished together.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Pete Hegseth Confirmation Hearing Watch Party
First, congratulations on your nomination. Thank you, Senator. And thank you for being willing to serve our nation. I served in the Navy. I'm really proud of my dad. He was crazy. He did all four combat jumps with the 82nd Airborne. He, after that, survived all that and fought in the Battle of the Bulge. And what they went through, it was hell.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Pete Hegseth Confirmation Hearing Watch Party
So I have a lot of respect for him and for everybody that puts on the uniform and serves in battle and has to lead people in battle. Because being on a ship, that didn't happen to me, but I had a lot of friends that happened to him. It clearly happened to my dad. I've served on this committee for six years, two years under President Trump and the past four under President Joe Biden.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Pete Hegseth Confirmation Hearing Watch Party
I've seen how the Biden-Harris administration pushed the DOD to prioritize wokeness over being the most lethal military force in the world. It's our readiness, our national security, and our ability to recruit people who are willing to put their lives on the line for our country.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Pete Hegseth Confirmation Hearing Watch Party
Can you talk about some of the changes we can make to improve recruitment and rebuild our military into the most lethal force in the world?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Rejecting Tariffs, or Rejecting Uncertainty?
And I'm not happy with what's going on in the market today, but the distribution of equities across households, the top 10% of Americans own 88% of equities, 88% of the stock market. The next 40% owns 12% of the stock market. The bottom 50 has debt debtors. They have credit card bills. They rent their homes. They have auto loans. And we've got to give them some relief.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Rejecting Tariffs, or Rejecting Uncertainty?
I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Number one, we want American jobs. I built the largest hospital company in the world. And then after that, I built a variety of manufacturing companies. If you have a Corvette, I probably made your outer body. If you have a John Deere tractor, I probably made your chain. If you have a towable recreational vehicle, I probably made your chassis. I built the biggest companies in those industries.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
And we need more American jobs. I was competing against China. China subsidizes their companies. They don't comply with any trade deals. Their quality in many cases is horrible. So if we want good paying American jobs, we got to protect American manufacturers. So what Trump is trying to do with having fair trade,
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
fair trade protection policies that are saying, look, if you are going to protect American companies from being able to sell into your country, which China, as an example, does not let us compete fairly in their country, if you're not going to be fair, then we're going to put tariffs on you because we're going to protect American jobs.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
If we go to war, we're going to want to know that we can build things in our own country. We want to buy our drugs built in our country. We want to buy our military equipment built in our country. We want to buy everything we can built in this country and protect American jobs. So what he's doing is he's doing exactly what he said he was going to do on the campaign trail.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Well, the most important thing is we've got to figure out how do you build American jobs? Here's how you do it. I mean, I build companies all over the United States. I did business probably in 40 states. Issue one, you make sure that you've got the best employees. You make sure you don't have regulations that your competition doesn't have. You make it easy to get a permit.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
You don't have taxes and fees that your competition doesn't have. And if you do, American engineers are always going to win. But when other countries subsidize their industries... then we've got to do what Donald Trump is doing. He's going to say, that's not fair. Then we're going to do the same thing in ours. And the way he's going to do it is through tariffs.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
So I'm glad that the president is standing up for American jobs. I'm excited. I think people, I think these companies worldwide are going to come back to America and we're going to see a renaissance of new jobs. You already saw it, I think, in the February numbers. Under the Biden administration, we've been losing about 9,000 manufacturing jobs a month.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
His first month, February, we added 10,000 manufacturing jobs. So I think that's going to continue.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Well, part of it is the agencies can do on their own. It's regulations that have been put in place over the years. They can eliminate those regulations. They can make it easier to get a permit. Right now, if you're dealing with the Corps of Engineers, it's like it's a black hole. You don't even know how to get a permit. It takes forever to get a permit. So then Congress can do some things.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Congress has passed legislation in the past that makes it harder to do business in the country. We have to say, look, we're competing globally. We've got to compete globally. If we're going to compete globally, that means we can't have rules and regulations that don't make any sense. Next, our state governments have to do the same thing, and our local governments have to do the same thing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Some of it's local, some of it's state, some of it's federal. Some can be done by the Trump administration on their own. Some has to be done through Congress. So it's got to be all hands on deck. And what businesses have to do is they have to be very clear. I tell them all the time, tell me where your problem is. If I have to call a governor, I'll call them.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
If I have to call a mayor, I'll call them. If I have to call a secretary that works for Trump, I'll call them. Tell me what your problems are because I want more jobs in America. I did the same thing when I was governor of Florida. We added 1.7 million jobs in my eight years as governor, and the state had lost 800,000 jobs four years before I became governor. So that's what we have to do.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
We have to go solve companies' problems and we'll get more great American-paying jobs. And you can go buy American. Stop buying anything made in China. They want to destroy your way of life. If Amazon doesn't tell you where it's made, don't buy it. If you get online anywhere, they don't tell you where it's made, assume the worst, don't buy it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Well, look, the election's not over until tomorrow night when the election's closed. We've got two elections. We've got Jimmy Paternus taking Matt Gaetz's seat, and we've got Randy Fine taking Mike Walt's seat. So we've got to get our vote out. And these special elections are always scary because the turnout is so much lower.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
In Randy Fine's case, his opponent raised over $10 million because with ActBlue, they were all in. So here's what I tell everybody. Get out and vote. If you're in Randy Fine's area, you've got to get out and vote. If you're in Jim Petronas, go vote. Don't take a chance. Make sure, you know, we have a big win. I think we're going to win, but it's all vote on bait. It's turnout today and tomorrow.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
We just have to understand that every election matters and we got to stay active. So you as a candidate has got to do their job. Now, let me tell you, Donald Trump is doing his job. He's done telephone town halls for both Jimmy Petronas and Randy Fine. He's done tweets. He's done everything he can. He endorsed them. He's doing everything he can to get the votes out. I've endorsed them.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
I've done telephone town halls. I'm going to do everything I can to continue to help them get the vote out. But all of us have to, you know, we have to volunteer. We have to, and you don't have to be in that district to volunteer. You can make phone calls. You can send texts on behalf of Randy Feiner, Jimmy Petortis. But that's true in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Anywhere where we have an election, we nationwide have to be all on board to help make sure we win.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
Reconciliation. I think our first vote on reconciliation is going to happen this week. We've been working our tail off. By the way, I saw President Trump Friday night down in Mar-a-Lago. He is absolutely on board to figuring out how to balance this budget. So what we've got to do is we've got to go back to pre-pandemic spending. because we can't be running these two trillion dollar deficits.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
We've got to give the president the money he needs for the border, the money we need to make sure we plus up our military. And we've got to make sure we keep the Trump tax cuts in place. We keep this economy going. I'm I'm very optimistic. All those things are going to happen.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Tariff Agenda: Make America Make Again
There is plenty of opportunity, and I've had companies tell us point blank that they're going to have to bring product back here if those tariffs are implemented.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Senator Cantwell, as I discussed in your office, that in my hometown of Charleston, South Carolina, Boeing is also the largest employer. So I view aviation as very important.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Again, I think I don't understand the nuance of that question, but I will get back to you on it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Senator Campbell, thank you for that. And after our discussion in your office, I actually went back and looked at some older data. In 2000, in terms of the labor share of aggregate income in the U.S., 69% accrued to labor. Today, that number is 60, and you could see a sharp drop after what is called the China shock. So I agree with you that opening markets
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
is good, but the free trade must be also balanced against fair trade. And clearly what has happened is the trade has not been fair. That has fallen on the American workers. And we cannot allow, as I think I mentioned to you, China is the most imbalanced, unbalanced economy in the history of the world. They are in a severe recession slash depression.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
They may have minus 4% disinflation, and they are attempting to export their way out of that as opposed to doing the much-needed internal rebalance. So I am with you on the need to open markets, but we cannot allow a player like this to flood our markets or to flood the world.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
So again, Senator, I am unfamiliar with that exact provision, but I do believe that it is important for us to mine, accumulate, and... move to domestic production for rare earths and other vital minerals. So I will get back to you on that exact, my thoughts on that exact program, but on a atmospheric meta basis, I agree with the direction of travel.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
The bad actors, especially Iran. I think I'm right. Maybe not in the exact numbers, but in order of magnitude, I believe Iran was down to one hundred thousand barrels. oil exports when President Trump left office, I believe that they are now exporting in excess or approximately 1.7 million. So through sanctions policy, I believe that we can, again, as I like to say, make our
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Iran poor again, not the Iranian people, the Iranian government. And then at the same time, they have our domestic producers push that up with the highest energy standards in the world.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Senator, I think it would be devastating, especially for small businesses. One of the things that, as someone who came from a very small town, Lived in New York with a very big town and came back to a small town. I believe Wall Street has done great the past few years and that Main Street has suffered. I think it's Main Street's time. Wall Street can continue to do well, maybe not as well.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
And it's time to have a Main Street small business-led recovery led by small banks, regional banks.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Of course, and I actually believe that the notion that President Trump believes he should have influence, there was, I believe, a highly inaccurate Wall Street Journal article saying that he believed something to the effect that he should be in the room. President Trump is going to make his views known, as many senators did. Three senators, including two on this committee,
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Called for, there was a jumbo rate cut in September, 50 basis points. Two of the senators on this committee called for 70.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
I think on monetary policy decisions, the FOMC should be independent.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Well, look, I believe as we saw. I don't know if it's a regulation, but it's a policy. As we saw from the December 8th hack by some Chinese entities into the Treasury, which was very serious, that that was through a work-from-home software app.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
So one of the policies that I support, I intend to be in the building every day that I am in Washington, and I support a return to the office, which is against the current Treasury policy.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Of course. I'm happy to provide that in writing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Well, I wouldn't note that President Biden gave the Presidential Medal of Freedom to two people who I think would qualify for his oligarchs.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Do you think that that is an oligarchic form of society? Senator, I think it depends on the ability to move up and down the... No, that's not really the answer.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Senator, I believe that the minimum wage is more of a statewide and regional issue. So you don't think we should change the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour?
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
Senator, I think we can both agree that many credit card companies have been bad actors throughout history. And I will get back to you once more. Very simple question.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Confirmation Continuum: Day 3
When President Trump takes office and if I am confirmed, I will follow what President Trump wants to do.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
Hey, Charlie. Can you hear me?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
Hey, excellent. First of all, we had a chance. You had me on the show about two weeks ago, and we talked about Idaho. I remember that. I don't know if you remember that. And you said Daisy was going to follow up with me to talk again. I've got a lot of ideas. It'd be great if she reached out. I'd love to do that.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
So my question is about the inauguration and drone threats. And before I ask my question, allow me to share real quick information about my qualifications and statements from the US government that are really informative. So I worked in the counter drone sector for several years. These are the systems that are meant to detect, track, and then stop drones.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
And as part of my work, I participated in meetings with the Secret Service, DOD, DHS, FBI, and other government agencies. The information I'm talking about today is available in the public domain. It's not from these meetings. The first most important thing, and people aren't talking about this, is that Trump didn't go to Bedminster to the drone threats. That's never happened before. Right.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
And if he doesn't feel comfortable, why should we? The second out of these three points is that DHS, FBI, FAA, and DOD statement, they came out and said that such drone sightings near or over DOD installations are not new. I mean, come on. And anybody in counter drone sector like myself has known this for years. Third, you're a football fan for the wrong team, the Oregon Ducks, sadly.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
But a couple of years ago, there were two drone sightings on one weekend alone in Seattle, one at Husky Stadium and one at the Seahawks Stadium. And neither time was the drone pilot found. So this other question and the last point that people don't understand, I can share some details if you want.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
But it's 10 times more difficult to detect, track, and take down drones in an urban environment than a wide open area. I mean, think of you're out in a wide open area and you're shouting, right? And your voice just carries over a large area. Now, for an urban environment, you're in an echo chamber, Charlie, with me and other folks, five or six people, and you all shout at once and the
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 208: Fat Kids = Child Abuse? Afghanistan Alternatives? Is DCFS Abusive?
The radar signals are like that. They're just bouncing around and you can't hear your own message. So urban environments, it's practically impossible to protect people. So my question is, are you aware of the US government can't guarantee the safety of people attending the inauguration?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Well, Pete's going to do a great job. You know what I like about Pete is he actually fought in a war. He volunteered to do this. He led troops. He knows what it's like to be a war fighter. He knows people have lost their lives. He knows people have been injured. So he's going to, one, make sure that we don't have DEI, we have the best people.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
And number two, he's going to make sure we're not sending people in harm's way if we don't have a plan to win. We're going to start winning instead of doing all these things where we just send our troops all over the world and have no plan. We limit what they can do. Pete's not going to let that happen. So I'm really excited for him.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
So at this point, Obama had 13 cabinet members confirmed, and President Trump has four. We'll have the Treasury Secretary confirmed tonight, and what we're going to be doing is we're going to be doing these all week. We did the right thing by staying over the weekend. Finally, the Democrats relented because they wanted to go home, but we didn't slow down our process.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
So unfortunately, it's going to take us longer because of the Democrats' obstruction. But President Trump has picked great people. We are staying here to get his confirmations done. They can slow it down from a time standpoint, but they can't prevent these nominees from being confirmed.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Absolutely. So he's done the right thing. One, he's bringing up bills that are Republican bills. The first one is Lake and Riley. We actually got some Democrat votes on that. This week, we have the ICC bill that would have sanctions for people that support the ICC when they went out and indicted Netanyahu. But with regard to nominations, He's doing it as quickly as he can.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Thune is doing it as quickly as he can with the Democrats' obstruction. So maybe they'll eventually relent. But the only way they're going to relent is if we make him stay here. And Leader Thune is doing that. So I'm very appreciative of what he's doing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Here's the difference. In Florida, we know that it's our responsibility to take the lead. So as an example, I had wildfires when I was governor. I had four hurricanes. And we didn't say, oh, let's wait and see if the federal government shows up and see if they'll help us solve this problem.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
We went and solved the problem on our own, realizing the federal government can provide some financial resources, but they're not going to lead this. They're not going to lead us out of this problem. So if you look at North Carolina and look at California, their governors have thought, oh, the federal government's going to do all this. We don't have to do it. So you look at California.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
I don't know why they have wildfires. One, they didn't have enough water. Whose responsibility is that? The governor's. Number two, the reservoirs were not full. Whose responsibility is that? The governor's. so what you have to do is one you have to take responsibility to prevent it so in florida we've had some we've had some small wildfires but we actually do prescribed burning in our forests
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
to make sure we don't have a situation where we can get wildfires. And then on top of that, when we do, which he had twice down in the Everglades when I was governor, we went and put them out quickly. We put all resources, state and local resources. We didn't wait for the federal government to show up. In California, they think somebody else is going to solve their problems.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
No one's solving your problem. You've got to do this yourself. The federal government can provide you some financial resources, but they don't have a whole bunch of first responders they can send to solve your problem.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Well, number one, we need to make sure everybody understands the first responsibility is local, then state, and then the federal government can provide some resources. So I'll give you an example. When I became governor, I had no idea why it was like this. The federal government paid 75% and even more for debris pickup in our state when we had a hurricane.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
I never understood why they did that, but they did. But what that allowed is a whole bunch of fraud. So I actually finally, it took me six years, I finally got a bill to crack down on that. I finally got it passed in December because there was billions of dollars of fraud. I probably saved the federal government over a billion dollars of fraud just in one hurricane, Hurricane Irma.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
So you can take that for each piece of this. The states need to be responsible. The local governments need to be responsible. Quit relying on the federal government to solve our problem. Otherwise, why do we have governors? Why do we have mayors? So I think what President Trump's in a position to say, wait a minute, the federal government can't do everything.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
They can do some things, but they can't do everything. And the federal government is just not a piggy bank for everything that the local or state government wants done. He knows we have $36 trillion for the debt. We're running $2 trillion deficits. We've got to get our fiscal house in order. And part of it is stop wasting money. So there is a better way to do this.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
you know, after disasters, a better way for the federal government to be a partner because what they do is, oh, it's just like the bridge in Baltimore. The federal government is paying 100% of that. There was a bridge built at the exact same time in Florida. Why don't we have the problem?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Because when we built the bridge, we built barriers so if a ship hit the edge, it didn't knock down the whole bridge. But in Baltimore, they didn't want to do that for some reason. And now the federal government somehow became, you as a taxpayer in any other state, you're now responsible for that building 100%, 100% building that bridge in Baltimore. That makes no sense to the rest of the country.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Why isn't Baltimore responsible first? Why isn't Maryland responsible first?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Well, I've gotten to know him over the last few years. What a great guy. Successful business guy. I like business people that run for office since that was my background. Here's a guy that was very clear of things he wanted to accomplish to fix this country. I've been working with him to go to Doge for the last few months. And now I'm excited. I hope he decides to run for governor.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
We need to have a really good governor. A good friend of mine now is the governor of Indiana, Mike Braun. who did a great job in the U.S. Senate. So governors matter. If you want better jobs, you want better schools, if you want better law enforcement, governors matter.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Vivek will do a great job in Ohio and continue to make sure Ohio is a leading state for education, for jobs, and for public safety.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
Well, there's two new sheriffs in town. One, Marco Rubio is Secretary of State, and Donald Trump is President. They clearly have let Petro, the President of Colombia, know that he is not going to play games. So he prevented the planes from landing with the illegal immigrants. And so immediately they went to work. I talked to Marco about it a couple of times yesterday.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
They immediately went to work and said, OK, so if that's the plan you're going to have, then these are the things that are going to happen to you. And he quickly capitulated. He's even going to send the presidential plane to come get illegal immigrants to come here. What they did to Petro is exactly what we need to be doing to every place. Here's one thing I don't get.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
If Mexico is allowing illegal immigrants from other countries to come through their country to come to our border, they should take every illegal immigrant back And they should be the ones that have to send them back to Colombia or Venezuela or wherever. They're the ones that are allowing this to happen. If not, we should hold Mexico accountable.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
But any country that allows their citizens to come into our country illegally, you have to, one, take them back. And two, you are responsible for allowing this to happen. And Petro is clearly responsible for what these individuals are doing. He's made sure there's more drugs being produced. Look, he was a cartel member. I mean, here's a guy that wants more drugs to be sold.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
And whoever his buddies, Diaz-Canal in Cuba, Maduro in Venezuela, Ortega. He is not our friend. The people of Columbia, they're our friend. They want to do business with us. Florida, in particular, does a lot of business with Columbia. But we can't do business with a president of Columbia that is a terrorist, which is exactly what he is.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Masterclass
That was great. Bye-bye, Charlie. Have a great day. Bye-bye.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
Charlie, I loved my mom. Unfortunately, my mom passed away. I had no interest in my mom telling me what to do. I had zero. I think that's exactly what young men in this country are saying. Look, give us our job. We're smart enough. We can go do this on our own. We don't need the nanny state telling us how to lead our lives. We don't need the tell us what to eat, where to work, any of this stuff.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So just give us an opportunity to go live our dreams. And so I think it's as simple, to me, it's as simple as that. I am sick and tired of how big government has gotten and you can't get a permit to build a business, to build a house, to do anything because of local, state, and federal government.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
If you're white, you're an oppressor. I mean, give me a break. You know what? I'm a kid that grew up in public housing. I joined the Navy at 18. OK, and I just wanted my chance to live the dream. Just give me my mom said, look, everything is your fault and your success is going to be your fault. Your failure is going to be your fault. So just let me go after my own success and get out of my way.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
But Jimmy Petronas is in the panhandle. He's taking Matt Gaetz's seat. Okay. Then Randy Fine, the Republican, is taking Mike Walsh's seat. So we've got to get our vote out. You know, in special elections, often the vote is, you know, there's low voter turnout. And this is when we have, you know, these are both should be, all right, in a normal year, this would be easy Republican wins.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
But what we're seeing now is, are Democrats about races? Because they know this is the chance to reduce the majority of the Republican's in the House. We've got to win. Jimmy's got to win. Randy's got to win. So here's what you can do. Give them money. You can make phone calls to people you might know in that district, from anywhere in the country. You've got to get the vote out.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
We've got to get everybody to go to the polls. You can early vote in Florida right now, and you can vote on Election Day. So we've got eight days to go. It's a week from Tuesday. Get the vote out. You've got to get out to vote. That's how I've won my elections in Florida. We've got to get the people out to vote.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
Your turnout. It's all who's going to show up and what how you know how you lose these special elections is, you know, people. Oh, gosh, we always win. Oh, I think I was even tracking the race. So I've done I've done tell telephone town hall for Randy just the other day. Just do one thing. We have an election. You have to if you're a Republican. You have to get out there and vote.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
Well, no one took the race seriously. No one thought in a Republican seat that Mike Walsh had won handily that there would have been any risk that we wouldn't win here. And so what's happened is the Democrats have shown up. And they have all this ActBlue money that they can raise.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
And so when you have just ads attacking you, attacking you, and attacking you, and you can't raise money, it makes it hard. And that's exactly what's happened to Randy Fine. So this is going to come down to do our voters show up? If our voters show up, we're going to win because, you know, it's getting late.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
But if you can, if you can donate to Randy Fine or donate to Jimmy Petronas, donate to him. If you have the time to make phone calls to get the vote out, you can call their campaigns. You can get on their websites and you can, You know, I know vote. I think Randy Fines is VoteRandyFine.com. You can get on there and you make phone calls for them. You can send texts for them.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So we've got to get our votes out. What? We know where the votes are.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
Jimmy Petronas is up in the panhandle. Yeah, no, that's fine. But Randy Fine, where is that? Yeah, Randy Fine. Randy's at Melbourne area. Okay. So... So a little bit south. That's conservative country there. Oh, yeah. We should win handily. It's just the fact that no one took the race seriously. It's a big Republican seat. Mike Waltz won easily.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So Josh, the other candidate, has been able to raise a lot of money, and he's run terrible ads, just complete lies about Randy. But we've got to go hustle.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So we did last week was our vote, our recess. We're back in our districts, our states. And now we're back up here for three weeks. So in three weeks, we're going to work our tail off to try to get this reconciliation done. So we're going to work with our House colleagues on doing these things.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
Number one, we've got to make sure Trump has the money to get rid of the illegals, the criminals, the terrorists, the narco traffic, and people selling our drugstore kits. He needs $175 billion to do that. We've got to plus up our military to be able to defend ourselves. And then third, we've got to balance the budget, and we've got to get the Trump tax cuts extended.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So we've got to work with our House colleagues. Really hard to get this done. We can balance a budget. We can do all these things right now, but it's going to take a lot of work over the next three weeks.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So Elon's done a great job giving information to our secretaries of ways they can reduce staffing, reduce wasteful spending. Now what we've got to do is we've got to, one, do a rescission package. What the White House can do, they can send us a rescission package. It only takes 218 members of the House, 51 members in the Senate, and we can get rid of that spending.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
I know the White House is looking at that. I spoke with OMB last week about it. So I know they're looking at that. And then as we do our budget for 2026, which will be part of this reconciliation, we can dramatically reduce that spending and take those DOGE cuts and put them in our reconciliation bill.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
So, Charlie, think about what was the election about? The election was about secure the border, make us safe, get inflation under control. Inflation will not come down. Interest rates will not come down if we don't balance the budget. They're not going to. It's all caused, it's a monetary, it's caused because of wasteful spending. We're spending $2 trillion more than we take in.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
We've had a 2% increase in our population, a 53% increase in spending in five years. So what we've got to do is we've got to do what you do. I mean, Charlie, you do it, everybody does it. You go, you get your credit card, you look at all the lines and say, Well, was that one right? Oh, I'm not going to do that one again. We're not going to spend money like that. That's what you do.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
We've got to do the same thing at the federal level. We did it in my business life constantly. When I was governor, I went through all 4,000 lines of the budget. Ron Johnson just had an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal saying, let's get the House, the Senate, the White House together, and let's go line by line through the budget. I did that as governor. That's how we balanced the budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
We reduced spending and we reduced wasteful spending because we had a purpose for every line. That's what you should expect out of your tax dollars. There should be a purpose, not $600,000 to study the menstrual cycle of transgender men or $800,000 to do gardening and new chicken gardening in El Salvador. I mean, this stuff is crazy. This is all doable. We can balance this budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
If we're going to get inflation under control, get interest rates down so you can afford that house or afford that car, it's going to be because we balance the budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
Absolutely. Charlie, it's simple. What the way to do it is we right now, they're anticipating that we're going to collect about five and a half trillion dollars. What do you do with your personal life? OK, you say, I'm not spending more than that. So what we should do is say our spending level will be the same as our revenues or less.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
When I was governor, it was less, and I paid off a third of the state debt. So we should say, okay, there's a lot of nice-to-haves, but we don't have the revenues for that. The taxpayers are not willing to give us the money to do those things. So the way to do it is to say, I'm not going to cut anything. I'm going to say this is what I'm going to spend money on.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
These are my highest priorities, but nothing else. This is the only amount of money I have to spend. It's just like what every family does with their personal life. We've got to do it with your with the federal government.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
For the first time in our nation's history, a 30-year-old man or woman isn't doing as well as his or her parents were at 30. That is the social compact breaking down. People aged 30 to 34, 60 percent of them in 1990 had one child. Now it's 27 percent. People are opting out of America. They're not optimistic about it. They're not having kids. Young people aren't having sex. They're not meeting.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Democrat Extinction Event
They're not mating. The pool of emotionally and economically viable men shrinks every day, which lessens household formation. So we have a real issue. Young people are enraged. So it turns every cut, every movement into an opportunistic infection because, quite frankly, they are just pissed off. And that's why they voted for President Donald Trump.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 216: No Taxes Under $150k? Elon Musk Army?
And by the way, you've got your Jim Rockford look going today and you're rocking it. Good job. Well, thank you. Hey, listen, the reason I called is I noticed that there's a lot of stock price manipulation going on, both with elected officials. mutual funds, that sort of thing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 216: No Taxes Under $150k? Elon Musk Army?
And I was just curious if you thought that going to a zero tax on dividends would shift investment away from kiting stocks into more well-run companies.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
I bet you're having fun and the weather's pretty good too.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Okay, here we go. Charlie, I was ready for this because I'm a business guy, so I expected this. I do a weekly newsletter to all my constituents every week. 12,000 phone calls to my 10 offices. We passed a reconciliation bill Thursday night. We got Kash Patel confirmed. We got Howard Lutton confirmed. And I filed a merit-based hiring bill, which means that we'll stop this stuff that you
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
You know that, you know, federal workers are like different than everybody else that you can't fire people for not doing their job. So is that enough? I can give you a bunch more if you want.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So, you know, Charlie, this is so simplistic. What Elon Musk is asking for is exactly what should be done. There should be complete accountability by every federal worker, right? And guess what? I was governor of Florida for eight years, and that's exactly what I ask everybody to do. Tell me what you're going to get done this week, because we have an obligation. There are no non-essential workers.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
There was none in my business life. There's not going to be in state government. There shouldn't be in the federal government.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
It doesn't it doesn't make any sense. Like you, Charlie, you have the right to pick which restaurant you go to. So if if you have a bad waiter, if you have bad food, you don't go back. Right. So you are deciding not to continue those people from having a job. You do it every day. We do it every day based on what services we'll buy, what products we buy, all that stuff.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So when I became governor of Florida, that's the way I thought because I built business. I built the largest hospital company. I built a bunch of manufacturing companies. Every employee had a purpose or they weren't there. And by the way, if you get fired, you decided to get fired. Any good manager is very clear what they expect out of you.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So if you get fired, it's not a surprise because they told you this is what your expectation was. And then you decided not to do it. That's exactly what ought to be happening. So I did it as governor of Florida. We created unbelievable efficiencies. I think we went from like 127,000 employees to 112,000 employees because, you know, we didn't need as many employees. We tried every day.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
How do you get more efficient? How do I get more efficient? How do I provide better service to the citizens of Florida at a lower price? That's what businesses do.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Our job should be accountability. Our job should be we want. There's two things really that Trump's team has brought to the table. When you look at when you look at his cabinet picks, what they bring to the table, in my opinion, is two things. A commitment to transparency and a commitment to accountability. So as an example, I was talking to Pam Bondi, who's a good friend of mine the other day.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
I mean, under both, under the FBI and DOJ, under Biden, they didn't think they had an obligation to tell us why they're doing the way, what they're doing. Pam Bondi and Kash Patel think totally different. They know that it's a responsibility of everybody that runs any part of the federal government is tell the American public what the living daylights is going on.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So that's what we ought to be doing. What we ought to be doing here is holding hearings and hold people accountable. So on Homeland Security, Rand Paul is running that committee now, and we're going to have a committee here. And so we're going to be asking people all the hard questions. Did you get something done? Why does it cost that much? Can you provide a better service?
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
We want, my office, one for the best constituent services team in the country last year of all House members and Senate members. The reason we did is we have a measurement system for success. What are the people looking for? That's what we do.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Well, if you think about it, with $36 trillion of debt, now we're at $36.5 trillion of debt. We're growing about every, you know, it'll be $2 trillion this year in increase. So inflation will not come down, all right? And interest rates will not come down. I mean, inflation and interest rates are completely tied to wasteful government spending, all right? So we don't have a choice.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
I became governor of Florida, and we had not lived within our means for 20 straight years. We had added a billion dollars of excess debt every year for 20 straight years. We're about to go into fault on our debt. Eventually, people are not going to buy our debt. They're going to say, I don't know that you can pay all that money back. But the worst thing is for poor families.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
I grew up in a poor family. A lot of Americans did. My mom would have had a hard time with the inflation we've had under Biden and where interest rates are now.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So here we got two big things, right? We want to get a reconciliation bill done that does these things, right? We want to secure the border. We want to build up our military. We want to extend the Trump tax cuts. And there's a variety of other things. We want to reduce wasteful spending. Those are the things we want to get done.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So there's different approaches, whether you have one bill or two bills or three bills. I'm okay with whatever number we have as long as we get those things done. So that we're working on. We passed ours out of the Senate last Thursday. The House will try to pass theirs this week. But then on top of that, on March 14th, if we don't come to an agreement, government gets shut down.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Now, as you know, a lot of Democrats have said they want to shut down government, which is fascinating to me because they always try to blame that on Republicans. But they've got Democrats now saying they want to shut down government. But none of us want to.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
I don't know if a Republican wants to shut down government, but we're going to have to figure out how to come together to get something done that is fiscally responsible, where we don't have a gazillion number of earmarks. That's completely wasteful. Like I think the I think the last year was eight thousand earmarks. Complete waste. Right.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Just complete waste when we're running to train all your deficits. So it's going to be how we bring everybody together to get this done will be very difficult.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Well, we're behind on the number of nominees we've gotten done since Obama's first term, but we're ahead on cabinet picks, which is really good. Now what we're doing is the undersecretaries are going through the committee process to get them out. Tonight we're doing the secretary of the army. Hopefully we'll get that one completed tonight or tomorrow, Wednesday.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So we're going through them and we're doing as quickly as the Democrats allow us. The way it works up here, depending on the nominee, You have 30 hours of debate or two hours of debate. So what we're trying to do is we're doing this as quickly as we can, but the Democrats are not giving us any time back. They're making us take all the 30 hours or two hours for every nominee.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So the other one we want to get done this week is the trade rep, Jameson Greer, which is a really important job dealing with the Trump tariffs. So, but, you know, we're Republicans up here. We are staying. We're working hard to get those things done.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
I think it's great. I think Dan's going to do a great job. First off, here's why I like Cash Patel. The reason I like Cash was because he had been persecuted by the FBI. He had been a target. And so I think he's going to bring a totally different perspective of somebody that's been persecuted. They try to take advantage of it and ruin their life.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Dan Bongino is somebody that's been very vocal on this issue, very vocal on what, you know, what our federal government law enforcement should be doing. So I think I think those two together are going to do a great job. Pam Bondi is going to do a great job as attorney general. She was attorney general of the eight years I was governor of Florida.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
So he's Trump's putting together a team that's going to make changes happen and is going to do two things. create transparency and accountability. These entities, which they work for us, they're going to be totally different. So I think Dan's going to do a great job. Cash, Pam, all of them are.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Well, the big thing is be vocal. You showed it in the leaders race last November. Your your voice was heard. Well, I didn't win. We completely changed the Senate. So stay active. That's how you get Trump's nominees done. That's how you get Trump's agenda. Stay active and be vocal.
The Charlie Kirk Show
What Do You Actually Do Here?
Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
They made the right call. Number one, thank God President Trump's the president, so he's going to try to keep our kids and our grandkids safe. I mean, who in their right mind, one, who filed a lawsuit saying, You don't care about kids and grandkids that might be raped or murdered or killed through fentanyl. That's number one.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Number two is, does this judge not have a family member that he cares about? He doesn't care about the crime in this country. I mean, this is stupidity. This is crazy what this judge has done. But I don't know who filed the lawsuit and why they don't care about this country. So I'm glad that President Trump does. I'm glad Tom Holman does.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
I want them to keep fighting every way possible to get rid of criminals, terrorists, people that are selling drugs to our kids and our grandkids and killing them. I want them out of this country. I want people to be safe.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Well, we've got to get Trump judges confirmed. So number one, we've got to make sure that... You know, Trump's White House counsel and Pambani give us the names of those that they want to appoint. Also, we got to get new U.S. attorneys, you know, in position and U.S. marshals.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
So the big thing we can do is, number one, do what Chuck Grassley talked about, is we got to do everything we can to help the judiciary. And then number two is we've got to make sure that President Trump has the resources. We need to get this reconciliation package done as quickly as possible.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
So he has the resources to deport the tens of hundreds of thousands of people that should be deported from this country because they're doing illegal things. And I want this country to be safe.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Absolutely. And here's what we're going to do. We're going to give the president money for the deportations. We're going to plus up the military to make sure we can defend our freedoms. We're going to extend the Trump tax cuts And we're going to start the process of balancing the budget. I think all those things are going to happen.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
We've got to get 218 people in the House to vote for it, 51 Republicans in the Senate. I think we're all going to come together to get this done. So we all know why President Trump won. He won over the border. He won over inflation. He won over a woke federal government, an unaccountable federal government. So he's doing his job. I believe we're going to do our job and get all these things done.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Well, here's what happened. Republicans came together. We did what we should have done. We had a simple continuing resolution. Now, None of us really want to vote for continued resolutions because we want to pass budgets. But unfortunately, this started last summer when Chuck Schumer wouldn't bring these appropriation bills to the floor. So we're stuck in the position we're in.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
We came together in the House. Our Republicans came together in the Senate. And we said we're going to pass this. And so it was up to the Democrats to shut down government. Now, you had Democrats that clearly wanted to shut down government. Andy Kim, Cory Booker, Chris Murphy, and others. They wanted to shut down government.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
But what they realized, I think what Chuck Schumer realized is that was basically playing into Donald Trump's hands. One, they would get known for the shutdown. And number two, it would give an even more authority for President Trump to do exactly what he should be doing, reducing the size of the federal government, reducing the number of people in the federal government.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Because here's what we've got to do. We've got to stop growing the government and start growing the private sector. What we've been doing under the Biden administration, and the same thing happened under Obama, is the government sector grew, not the private sector. We want private sector jobs, not more government jobs. And that's exactly what Donald Trump is doing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
They're part-time jobs. We were losing full-time jobs, only adding part-time jobs. And people born in this country were not getting jobs. Only people born out of this country. Some of them, I'm sure, had become legal through the green cards and things like that. But here's what we knew.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
It was getting more difficult for people that grew up here to get a job, easier for people that didn't grow up here to get a job. I mean, that doesn't make any sense. So Donald Trump didn't walk in with a good economy. Donald Trump walked in with an economy that was struggling, struggling for jobs, struggling with inflation, struggling with interest rates, all these things.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
He's committed to balancing the budget. When we balance the budget, what's going to happen is interest rates are going to come down, inflation is going to come down.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Well, number one, as I travel around Florida, people come up to me all the time, aren't you excited? We're finally heading in the right direction. And they just laugh at the Democrats because the Democrats are still focused on an open border, men playing in women's sports, some of the things that are completely appalling to most of this country. So we're on the right track.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Democrats are on the wrong track. I'm very optimistic about where we're going.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Who Rules: Judges or the President?
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
Hey, Charlie. Thank you. Got great respect for you and Turning Point. And just, it's really changing. everything about the party and MAGA. And there's a lot of work that needs to be done in Idaho. So I just say that, you know, the lives of my youngest daughter and son will never be the same. You can hear the emotion in my voice a little bit after the tyrannical COVID lockdowns.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
And this means that I will do whatever it takes to ensure our red state Republican senators in Idaho confirm President Trump's cabinet nominees. We have to hold those accountable for the suffering, and we have to stop them from sending hundreds of billions of dollars to Ukraine. So I really would like to know What is your strategy for Idaho?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
You know, when are you coming to Idaho and how can I help?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
So I've met him personally in some of the government affairs work I've done. And just by saying this in Idaho, I'm now on a blacklist because nobody wants to go up against these red state rhinos who've been in the Senate so long. He is arrogant. He is out of touch. You go in for a meeting with him in his office. He doesn't really ask you for anything.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
He takes you to an adjoining office with a background of a Capitol photo. And he says, oh, here, we'll take a photo. He shakes your hand and then he leaves. And I really believe that with your support, we could primary him. I mean, you've got a congressman here, Russ Vulture, who's in the Freedom Caucus. He's 62 years old, and he's somebody who could successfully take on Rish.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
He's not in my district, yeah.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
One hundred percent. And let me but let me share two ideas with you that are very important. And you're very pragmatic, which is another reason I enjoy listening to your show, is that you've talked about the big blue cities. We must go beyond Boise. They're real voters are the rural voters. People in the rural areas distrust Boise. We have to engage them. Idaho State University.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
I don't know if you've been there yet, but that's in eastern Idaho. Without an event there, I really believe that the rural voters will feel alienated. What was the school again you said? Idaho State University. It's in Pocatello, Idaho.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
Yeah. We have to engage these rural voters. Take two days to come to Idaho. The other important point is don't forget the Mormons. Over 20% of Idaho residents are Mormon. Senator Crapo is Mormon. So let me mention this. just an hour away from idaho state university is byu idaho if you have an event there you will demand senator crapo's attention you will get the mormon's attention just
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
That alone will change everything.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
Yeah. You had Mark Halperin on earlier. He, um, asked me a question on his two way platform about a week ago. It was very important. His response, uh, So I've been to Russia 50 times. I worked at the European Bank for Reconstruction Development in London. Let me tell you, that is the deepest state of all. We have to get rid of those.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
And what I talked about, Mark, was and I said, Mark, presumption of grace. You know, there are people who understand that Russia is not a threat to the United States. And for the first time, I heard a mainstream reporter say, you know what? I know very smart people on both sides of the aisle. that understand that Russia isn't a threat. So I just wanted to throw that in there.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 207: Saving Idaho? Surgeon General and Smut? Amfest Breakout Sessions?
I mean, I will do whatever I can to help you in Idaho. I will leave my job right now. I just would love to be part of your team in Idaho. I think I've got some good ideas. So please keep that in mind.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
And if we don't figure this out, you know, we're not going to win elections because if you go back, if you go back to the election and I went through it, just like Trump did last year, what do people want? They want a secure border. They want inflation under control. They want transparency. They want accountability and common sense, right? So we have to balance this budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
So I'm hoping that we're going to get it done. Here's the process. Number one, what Elon Musk is doing. Number two, we're working through reconciliation. But the House has a path and we have a path in the Senate. We're going to figure out how to come together. We've got to agree what the top line budget will be for next year.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
If we can get that close to $5.5 trillion with the growth in the economy, which I think that's what Trump is going to do, then I think we can get to a balanced budget very quickly. So I think we're all coming together.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
And then the other thing is, as Elon Musk finds things, as the Trump administration finds things, they can ask for rescission, which only takes 51 votes in the Senate and 218 votes in the House, to take existing committed spending and stop it. And I think that's what the Trump administration is also gonna do. So we've got a lot of different opportunities to get this spending under control.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
I mean, Charlie, we can balance the budget if we start. We just get rid of all the Biden spending. First off, let's go through the numbers. He increased the spending by over two trillion dollars. All right. On top of that, just is the cost of the regulatory state that he created is one point nine trillion dollars. Now, put that in perspective. We only have a $28 trillion economy, right?
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
And he added, what, $8 trillion to the debt, something like that. And if you go look at the real numbers, we've been losing full-time jobs during the Biden administration. We've only been adding part-time jobs. And all the new jobs were going to people not born in this country. That's all changing. Now, Trump's got his work cut out for him.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
But just in the first month, more people born in this country got jobs, right? 10,000 manufacturing jobs. We were losing 9,000 a month. So I'm up and I think he's going to be able to get gas prices down by, you know, allowing the energy industry to produce American energy. So I'm very, you know, this is exciting. I've been in the Senate for six years. We had no ability to get things done.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
This is now the time. This is our chance. And if we don't get it done, people should be very disappointed in us.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
Well, we can't. First off, number one, there's no value of shutting down government. All right. And so here's I don't like CRs, I haven't supported CRs, but I believe I was with Tom Emmer last night and he believes the House is gonna pass what they have on the table, right? And so we needed the Senate, we need to come together and we need to work together to get this accomplished.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
Maybe, I don't know if there's gonna have to be any changes or anything, but we can't allow government to shut down. You know, we have Democrats like Andy Kim and Cory Booker who want to shut down government. That's not good for the American public. And guess what? We'd sell these people, a third of workers to go home and then they still get paid. This is stupidity. I mean, it makes no sense.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
So what we've got to do is we've got to make sure government doesn't get shut down. We got to work on the reconciliation to get the border secure, plus up the military to the extent we need it, extend the Trump tax cuts, do these things.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
So if we do all these things, then I think we're going to have, I don't know how long it's going to take us, but we're going to have a robust American economy again, just what it was like when Trump left.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
I agree. Yep, I agree with you, Charlie.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
Senator, great to see you. That's frustrating. So, and you know, Tom Emmer was there last night also. So, and I think Byron Donalds was there. So, it's all good. So, hey, think about it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
You know, we have the House, the White House and the Senate. Maybe we have an opportunity to get something done here.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
So so I brought in Elon to the Wednesday lunch of Republican senators last week. And what Elon is doing is actually what I did when I first became governor. I mean, what he's doing is he's saying, okay, so let's go through line by line through the budget and let's get rid of the stupidity, the waste, employees that we don't need. I mean, why are we paying for non-essential employees?
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
And so what he's doing is he's giving the Trump administration through the agency heads really good information. And they act on it. So he gives it to Sean Duffy or he gives it to Kristi Noem or he gives it to Marco Rubio and they make a decision of what they should do. But think about somebody, he's, he what? He got $600,000 to study the menstrual cycle of transgender men.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
$300 million to build a cement factory, give them money in Gaza. I mean, $800,000 for gardening in El Salvador. I mean, just stupidity. So I think he's doing a great job.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
We've had a 2% increase in population in five years and a 53% increase in spending. We will not get interest rates down. We will not get inflation under control until we balance the budget. That's what we have to do. And Elon Musk is part of the process of balancing the budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
So, Charlie, in the last five years, we've had a 2% increase in the U.S. population, right? We've increased spending by 53%. Now, we've gone from pre-pandemic, pre-COVID, to today. We've increased the federal deficit annually, federal spending, by $2 trillion. $2 trillion year after year after year. And guess what? That's where we're running in deficits, $2 trillion. So...
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
we can balance this budget. Now, we're not going to get inflation under control. We're not going to get interest rates down, right, if we don't balance the budget. Everybody wants to say, oh, Trump's going to cause inflation to go up with tariffs. No, inflation is caused by government spending in excess of what they have, of what they take in.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
It looks like we'll collect about $5.5 trillion this year. You know what you do in your personal life, Charlie? You probably say, I'm not going to spend more than I take in. And you look at every credit card and you say, I'm not going to do that again, or maybe that's improper.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
But what we've watched with what Elon's done is there's a whole bunch of stuff on an automatic pilot that makes no sense at all. And so, I mean, thank God what he's doing. He thinks he can, his goal is $4 billion a day of savings. He thinks he can get to a trillion dollars by the end of September. So if we can if we can watch our spending, find all this waste and abuse, we have a real shot.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
And President Trump has committed to balance the budget, which helps the poorest families in this country the most because inflation will go away. That's the thing that hurts me. I grew up in a poor family. I watched my mom struggle with inflation. It's the biggest thing. Get grocery prices back down, gas prices back down, you know, everything.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
We got to get it back down to something that people can afford. And bring back American jobs. I don't know if you saw, Charlie, that we've been losing manufacturing jobs month after month after month. The first month of the Trump administration, we added 10,000 manufacturing jobs. That's a big deal. Those are good, way better paying jobs than most jobs.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The President Wants Peace — Why Doesn't Everyone Else?
You know, the way that I think about Charlie, if they don't do it now, they're going to have to do it because inflation is not going to get under control unless we balance the budget. So what I tell people is, look, we should do it now, but we're going to have to do it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
Hey, Charlie. How are you? I want to talk about the fact. Yeah, I mean, this is a real personal issue for me. It affects our children. But the federal bureaucracy here in Boise, the Social Security office, we call them and they don't even answer the phone. And then we can try to go there in person. They say, hey, you got to make an appointment by phone.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
So to me, it's clear President Trump and people don't talk about this enough. He is a revolutionary president, not incrementalist, but revolutionary. He wants to make these big cuts in government. But I'm really concerned that establishment D.C. is going to slow down and kill his efforts.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
So what percentage of the federal workforce do you think Trump, Doge and the cabinet will be able to cut in the next 12 months?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
Hey, Charlie. So really it's a question that affects everybody here, but I want you to understand where it comes from. You know, these Wuhan virus lockdowns had a lifelong negative impact on the life of our son. That's why we're reaching out to Social Security for Disability. And I want to do my part to expose these government lies. Like, you know, Meghan McCain says, I want revenge.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
And one of the biggest lies in the government's claim about us is they can control U.S. airspace and protect us from drones, like at Autzen Stadium. And I can say for a fact that counter-drone systems can't protect Americans at stadiums, airports, and downtown areas like the U.S. Capitol and the White House. Now, this is the point, and this is really foolish, but you're a father too.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
So I'm willing to bet my life savings, okay, to get attention to this, $100,000. By the way, I have all the respect in the world for Marc Andreessen, but he invested in the best counter drone company called Andrel. And I'm willing to bet that he can't stop me and my friends from crashing a drone into stands at Autzen Stadium during a test When the stadium is empty. Right.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Ask Charlie Anything 214: Picking Campus Visits? Vegas Shooting Truth? 2025's Most Crucial Election?
And don't you want to know if you and your family and friends are protected at Autzen? I mean, they can't protect the White House. They can't protect, you know, DCA. I mean, this is something that people need to know about. I'm serious.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
I go back in about an hour. We're working on these confirmations, these nominations to get them done. So we have to be there. to move the process along because the Democrats keep trying to block it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Well, first off, here's what's frustrating. We've had 13 nominees done. At this time, Obama had 26. So what's happened is they can slow the process down by requiring us to have a vote on every procedural move you can imagine. They are. They're also requiring us to use the entire 30 hours of debate time for every cabinet member, which they are. So, you know, we have to stay there.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
We have to work weekends. We have to get these things done. Tonight, we're going to be doing the confirmation for Tulsi Gabbard. And then once we get her finished, which will be either tomorrow or Wednesday, we'll go to Robert Kennedy. So I'm optimistic that we're going to get enough votes to get everybody through. But be vocal.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Tell your senators how much you care about these individuals because it increases the odds that they'll vote for them.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Well, what they're trying to do is try to make sure he didn't win. I mean he won. He got a mandate. So what we have to do is we have to keep Hussein up there, and eventually I believe what's going to happen is – The Democrats will finally relent, although what Elon Musk is doing is just destroying them. The fact that he's showing this unbelievable abuse.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
I heard there was a tweet this morning that just last week over $50 million was sent from FEMA to hotels in New York City. This has got to stop. So he's finding this. What he did by, you know, we're getting rid of USAID. How could any American say, oh, that was a good use of American money, what USAID was doing? So Trump's right. We've got to go through every line in the budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
I did it as governor. There's 4,000 lines in the budget in Florida. I went through every year, every line. We had a written purpose. That's how we balance the budget. Trump is committed to balancing the budget. So we're going to keep working on these nominations, but we also have to get this budget in line.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Your response to your fellow senator? I mean, he's completely full of it. I mean, here, Donald Trump was elected. He has a mandate to start watching how the money is being spent. The, I mean... I mean, Chris Murphy, I don't know what he's talking about. We should watch how we spend every dollar. That's exactly what Trump is doing. That's what Elon Musk is doing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
He's showing us the unbelievable abuse there is in the system. He's not doing it to help a political ally or hurt somebody else. He's saying, do you want to waste money? Anywhere in the world? I mean, some of the things the USAID was spending money on makes no sense. So Trump's doing what he should be doing. And he's talking about what's important to the American public, balance of budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
So I'm very appreciative of what everybody at Doge is doing. I'm appreciative of what Elon Musk is doing. We've got to go through every line. We've got to get all this money out. Charlie, think about this. In the last five years, we've had a 2% increase in population and a 53% increase in spending. If we went back to spending five years ago, we would balance the budget.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
We would balance the budget. That means interest rates will come down. That means inflation will go away. We can do that. We should be doing that right now.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Well, what we have is we have one or two or three recreation bills. So with that, what the first one that we're talking about in the Senate is we would fund the border. So Trump can for sure secure the border, which he's doing everything he can. Number two, there's a military spending we need to do. And number three, then we start the process of to extend the Trump tax cuts.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
That would probably be done a little bit later, maybe April, May, June, or July, something like that. In the meantime, government gets shut down March 14th if we don't continue our government funding. So the right thing to do is it would be to go back and balance the budget right now.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
But it's very difficult to do that because we need 60 votes to be able to do the continuing, whatever we're going to do. Typically on a continuing resolution, you have this big blowout spending. Fortunately, We're not talking about big blowout spending bill now.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
They're talking about continuing the existing, which is better than 8,000 earmarks, which is what they've been doing every year since I've been up here, and everything under the sun that somebody wants. So right now, we started the reconciliation process in the Senate. We are working on what we're going to do on March 14th.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Even though it's not the best thing, it's probably the only way we get 60 votes to get something done is the continuing resolution where we don't increase the spending, then we can go with our reconciliation and cut spending as quickly as we can. We have trillion dollars of things that we can cut spending on. We need to cut $2 trillion, and we can do that.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
I mean, it's unbelievable. Think about it. So 2% increase in population growth 53% increase in spending. I mean, that just doesn't make any sense. Why can you balance your budget? Businesses are successful at balancing their budget. I was able to do it when I was governor of Florida. Now, they had not done it but once in 40 years before I became governor.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
But why are states willing to do it and our federal government can't? It's because corporations People don't want to stop spending. They want to just give away free money because it sounds really good, and somebody will say something nice about you. But this is your money. This is not free money. This is your money.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
It's going to be you're going to pay it in increased debt with interest expense, or you're going to pay in higher taxes and fees. That's wrong. It's not fair to the American public. So we've got $36 trillion worth of debt. If we balance the budget, guess what? We wouldn't even have to worry about a debt ceiling increase. We could do what I did when I was governor of Florida.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
We could start paying off debt. When I was governor, I paid off a third of the state debt. We could do that at the federal level and we should be doing that. We have to do that someday.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
CFPB, who I never met one person in the entire country that said, boy, I'm excited because we have the CFPB. So it's just it's just money to go harass Americans. They've harassed Floridians. It's his money to harass them. And guess what? Trump is doing the right thing. I mean, he's done so many things. But shutting down the CFPB would be unbelievably important to help build our economy.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
So I'm on a bill with Ted Cruz, who's the lead on it, to get rid of it. But look at what Trump's done, what he's been in office, what, three weeks? Get rid of USAID, get rid of CFPB. He's got, what, nine Americans back from Hamas, Taliban, Maduro. Maduro is taking people back. See, Colombia is taking people back. The border is secure. I mean, this is three weeks.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Just think what's going to happen in the next little less than four years now.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
My understanding is not. And guess what? They can shut it down because they can decide not to ask for money from the Federal Reserve. So it's not constitutional. It should never be there. And the Trump administration figured this out. Russ vote is going to make sure it doesn't continue in existence.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
He's going to bring common sense to the budget. He's going to look at every dime. He's going to work with Elon Musk. He's going to work with other cabinet members. And they're going to figure out where all the savings are. He has had this job before, so he's got a lot of knowledge. He's a smart guy. He's fearless. He's going to have Trump's back.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
And they're going to figure out how to balance his budget and get this wasteful spending under control. So I'm really excited about Russ Vogt. I've had the opportunity of working with him when he was in the White House the first time and then the last four years while Biden's been in office. So I think he's going to do a fabulous job. And then Dan Bishop is going to be number two there.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Dan used to be in the House. And they're both fiscal hawks, and they know it's your money.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Well, number one, we have to balance the budget, all right? Number two, we have to do everything we can to get China under control. I mean, they want to destroy our way of life. They're killing Americans with fentanyl. They're building a military to be able to defeat us.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
On top of that, we've got to support democracies and fight against the dictatorships anywhere in the world, but especially here close to home, close to Florida in the southern hemisphere. Then I'm excited about RFK, when he's going to come in and make him, he's going to make us healthy again.
The Charlie Kirk Show
The Crusade to Cut Spending + My Super Bowl Reaction
Instead of the health care system makes money off of you getting sick, he's going to try to make sure people stay healthy. So you can go agency by agency. We're going to make sure we're independent from the standpoint of oil. We're not going to have bad food that we're eating. I mean, there's so many exciting things going on.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
Thanks, Charlie. Thanks for having us on. Yeah, I know, you know, we got together last time in July at the Believer's Summit, and it was just such a great event. That was the one I think a lot of people saw that President Trump was on, made the comments about challenging Christians to get out there and vote, that he needed their vote.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
that got a lot of play, I know, on a lot of the different networks, which is great. But yeah, we were able to be at that conference, meet a lot of great people, a lot of great young Americans, and the results for us are great.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
We had, if you can believe it, within a month after that conference, we had about 95 zip codes adopted for Saturate USA, which accounts for about 575,000 people that were shared the gospel. So great stuff. Love you guys. Love the Believer Summit that we had and excited to
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
continue to work and partner with you guys on getting the word out about Jesus Christ and sharing the gospel with people in the United States.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
Well, definitely, Charlie, you know, COVID was tough because obviously the government was keeping people from meeting in churches. And so that's a very tough thing. But since then, I think we're seeing a huge revival in people's values, wanting to get back to Christian values, understanding that that's where we need to be as a country. And so we've seen huge numbers.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
We've actually had, on a guesstimate, there's about 120 million households in the United States. We've had 53 million adopted already over the last four to five years. And it's been incredible. We see churches going out there every day, sharing the gospel in their neighborhoods.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
And the whole premise of Saturate USA is not to uplift some organization, but really to get the churches back out in the community. And my personal opinion, as we've seen what's happened in the election here in November, was I think that we're seeing that people are realizing that we've got to get back to some truth. We've got to get back, as Musk said, about caring.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
We've got to get back to, you know... the values that are there in our country. It's not just about how you feel. There is a right and wrong, and we believe that's very clear in the gospel message of Jesus Christ. And so we are seeing that uptick. And the hope is, I think as a country, is as we get back to more values of
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
of biblical values, I think then our values as it pertains to family, as it pertains to, uh, to, uh, politics, all it changes as well. And I, and I think that's, I think the American people have made a pretty strong case for that in the last election. As you look at the things that Trump, uh,
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
went on and then the reaction and the numbers as you see polls with people really caring about their community and so forth. And then I think with Christianity, a lot of times when things get tough, which we know, man, they were really tough there for four years under Biden, that people rely on prayer. They rely on their neighbors. They rely on help.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
And that's where the church can jump in and just help people out so much.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
Pretty simple, Charlie. What we ask people to do is get out there and either through individuals, through through churches to go out and spread the gospel through their neighborhoods. Basically, we provide them a packet. We call them saturate packets. They have a DVD with online streaming capacities to look at the Jesus film in over 1,800 different languages.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
It has Magdalena as well, which is a movie about her, and it's a great movie for inner city people. And then the last one would be Jesus Film for Children, which is pretty self-explanatory. Those are provided on the DVD, but really are provided streaming-wise for free for people. And then the last thing in there, there's a booklet. It's called, Do You Want to Know God Personally?
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
And it's a very simple way to lead people through accepting Christ as their Lord and Savior. The last thing we ask then for the people to do is to put in local church information in the packet. The goal is to get these people in their neighborhoods to be connecting with each other, with their neighbors, and then getting them into our local churches because that's where we need them to be.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
And so the impact's been incredible. We have, like I said, had over 53 million homes adopted. And people are going out with these packets with their church information in. They are walking the streets. They're praying for houses as they do it. And they're putting these packets either in hand by knocking on the door, but most people leave them on the door and then follow up weeks later.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
And we have seen church after church after church have huge impacts in sharing the gospel in their community, helping people in need. and getting out there and doing that. And, you know, it's pretty amazing. You know, as I drive down my neighborhood, I don't know half the people in there, but I should, I should be sharing with the people in my neighborhood.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
I should be having community with them because if I'm doing that, then the values I have, they're going to know them and I might be able to impact them in greater ways. Not only with their faith, but with politics and all those kind of things. And so it's really simple. You go out to saturateusa.org.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
You fill out a form that takes about 10 seconds, and one of our representatives will call you and get you set up. The key to this, Charlie, is everything is 100% free. There's no charge. We ship for free. Usually it takes about two to three weeks to get the materials. If we need to expedite that, we can. But the whole process is free, and the goal is to share the gospel with our neighbors.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
Yeah, so I mean, we have anywhere from, I know a couple in Denver, Colorado that has done, if you can imagine, over about 25,000 homes. And they've been doing that for the last year. They go out on Saturdays and spend an hour or two walking, doing this on their free time. We've had churches that do weekend events where they get 100 to 150 volunteers, and they'll do 15,000 in a Saturday.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
But as you can think, depending on your neighborhood and how spread out homes are and how well walking, I mean, high school kids can do phenomenal things. I've seen youth groups do a couple thousand in an hour. But it's very simple. You basically do it in your time when you want to do it and in whatever way you want.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
We're more than happy as an organization to tell you best practices or give you information and connect you with other churches that have done it. But the key is, is it's done in your time and it can be done at your speed when you want to do it and so forth. We are doing a special thing where we're really trying to do a big push for Easter.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
We would love to get 2 million homes adopted in the next month or so so that we could have a big push before Easter. I think Easter is always a great time for the church to get people to come to church and to get involved in church. in their communities. So that's one of the things, but the website is saturateusa.org. There's a two minute video you can watch.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
It explains the whole process to you in detail. And then, like I said, there's a, there's a form you fill out. It takes about 10 seconds and we will have someone call you and get you guys going on it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
Thank you, Charlie. Have a great one.
The Charlie Kirk Show
Is It Time for Democrats to "Play Dead?"
I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
I want to introduce Marco yesterday. I said one of the benefits of you getting nominated to be Secretary of State is I finally get to be the senior senator. So I spoke to him. Actually, he's gotten appointed. I just spoke to her. I've already spoken to her a couple of times. I just got off the phone with her. She's going to come up this weekend.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
So I'll be meeting with her and doing everything I can to help her get acclimated and get started quickly. She's been a successful attorney general in Florida for six years. He took over after Pam Bondi. She's done put a lot of effort in it to try to hold the Biden administration accountable. So I think she's going to be a good colleague to work with.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
Well, so Pam Bondi was outstanding. I had the opportunity. She's a good friend. As you know, I had the opportunity to introduce her yesterday at the Judiciary Committee. And she did a great job. She's somebody that's smart, hardworking. She's going to try to bring respect back to the Department of Justice.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
She's not going to play this lawfare gotcha, what the Biden administration, the Obama administration did. So I think she's going to do a really good job. And she did a fabulous job yesterday. Marco Rubio, of course, Foreign Relations, I also had the opportunity to introduce him. He did a great job, as you know. He's very knowledgeable on foreign relations.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
And I think what he wants to do is bring the Secretary of State's office back to the importance that it should have in deciding foreign policy in this country. So Pete Hedgeseth did a great job at Armed Services. So I'm on that committee. He did a great job. Here's what I like about Pete. He's a warrior.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
Like my father did all four, there's only 3,000 people did all four combat jumps with the AC and airborne during the second world war. All right. I respect and admire those people. They know where the problems are. They know what the warfighter needs. That's where Pete is. He fought, he served in Afghanistan and he served in Iraq. He knows what the warfighter needs.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
That's what we ought to be doing. So I think he's going to do a great job. He will be confirmed. I don't know how many Democrats are going to vote for him. I don't know how many Democrats will vote for Pam Bondi. but they're going to be confirmed. Hopefully, we'll get them confirmed quickly.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
John Thune has committed to have an aggressive process to try to get all these confirmations done as quickly as possible. It appears that Chuck Schumer and the Democrats are going to try to slow down as much as possible, which makes no sense. Donald Trump was elected president. He won a big win. He won the popular vote. You should help them get their team together.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
And by the way, if his team does not do a good job, there's elections in two years. Help them get their team together. Democrats should not be fighting us on this. And then let them go do their job. And if they don't do a good job, the public has the opportunity to vote in two years and not elect Republicans again.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
There's a commitment by our leadership. Sooner or Thun has made a commitment that we're going to do this as quickly as possible. I think all of us are going to do everything we can to get them done. So the only the only it's not going to be us slowing this down this time. It's clearly going to be that we're going to stay here.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
We're going to work if we need to through the weekends to get things done. It'll be we'll see how much the Democrats want to slow it down. It takes a certain number of hours of debate for every one of the cabinet members. So if they make us use up all that time, then we'll all be sitting here, including the Democrats. So I think we're doing the right thing.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
And I think we need to say to ourselves, we should be clearly no worse than the pace of when Obama got his cabinet put together. And I think that should be our standard. And I know that's exactly what we're demanding right now. And hopefully that's what we'll get.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
So what will happen is as soon as Donald Trump is sworn in, then he'll sign the nomination letters. and send them back over here. We will have our committee votes to confirm them out of committee as quickly as possible, as many as we can get done that day. And then we'll start the process. Now, the Democrats can slow us down.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
They can make us take 30 hours of Senate hours, basically for each of these cabinet members. So we'll see if that's what they do. If you go back to Barack Obama, I can't remember, but he got many confirmed his first day. They didn't work to help Trump in 2017. Hopefully, you know, they'll work to get some of these done. I don't know how. Marco Rubio is going to get almost every vote, I assume.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
I think there's going to be a lot of people that they're all going to vote. I think you're right. We're going to get these people. They should get done immediately, within hours after Trump is sworn in.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
Well, what you need is you need national defense done as quickly as possible. Number one, things you ought to be doing. So we need to get Secretary of Defense done. We need to get Marco Rubio done. We need to get Tulsi Gabbard done. So Pete had a great hearing. I think it's very difficult to vote against him. I don't know how the Democrats are going to do, but that should happen very quickly.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
Marco should happen hopefully within hours. But after that, we need the attorney general done. Pam Bondi did a great job at her hearing. She was outstanding. She doesn't take any gut from anybody. So hopefully those get done. We need to have Russ Vogt approved. He's going to be management budget. Tulsi Gabbard.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
Tulsi, I assume they're going to make her life miserable for a while like they did Pete's for a while. What the Democrats do, they do smear campaigns. But these are great nominees. These are hardworking Americans. These are people that are going to change the direction. So Kash Patel, they're going to go after, if you look at history, they're going to go after Kash
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
But look at, I mean, look at who they're replacing. Christopher Wray, who's clearly, you know, was lawful against Trump. Merrick Garland. And look at how General Austin ran the Secretary of Defense. And by the way, twice within six months, he was, you know, AWOL. I mean, he was in the hospital and didn't tell people. So, I mean, that's a violation of law.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
And of course, Biden did nothing about it. We just found out yesterday.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
So it really matters if the public is vocal about what they expect. Donald Trump won. He won big. You need to do The public needs to do whatever they can to let their senators know it is very important to be very helpful to Donald Trump to get his agenda done. The more active you are, the better chance it'll get done. I love it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
How Joe Biden Could Have Won 2024 — But Didn't
We're going to. See you, Charlie.
The Deck
Agustin Chacon (King of Clubs, Texas) & Marshall McCarthy (5 of Hearts, Texas)
She absolutely broke down. I do know that. Aunt Wilma had a tough, tough time with that. He was her only child, and that's the worst part of the whole thing, really, what it did to her heart.
The Deck
Agustin Chacon (King of Clubs, Texas) & Marshall McCarthy (5 of Hearts, Texas)
Even if whoever did it, if they're gone now, just to know this is who it was. You know, I realize this many years later, you know, a lot of the actors may have passed away. But just to know, hey, this is who did it. And hopefully my woman in heaven will know because I know that bug hurt her the day she died. Her heart was broken over that. That was in her mind until the day she died.
The Deck
Agustin Chacon (King of Clubs, Texas) & Marshall McCarthy (5 of Hearts, Texas)
He was kind of a wild child. He ran his own path, I guess is the best way to put it. He was really a nice person. He was caring, especially caring towards his family. He wasn't loud. He wasn't boisterous. He didn't rant and rave about this, that, and the other. He was just a pretty chill guy, really and truly.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
It was myself and my best friend at the time, and Chad. And they were cleaning up the cellar for his birthday. Oh, you were there, too. Yeah, we were in the kitchen cooking sausage. Yeah, we were cooking dinner. But they were downstairs cleaning, and I was upstairs. My mother had just left, and me and Corey were upstairs cooking dinner, and they came up for a break, went into the room.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
And we heard like a little firecracker go off, you know. And then the person came out of the room. He had blood on his hands. He's, you know, freaking out. I shot Chad. I shot Chad.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
So I called 9-1-1, and I paged my mother and said, You know, then the police got there.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
This was my first tattoo. I got the comedy and tragedy faces with the In Memory of Chad banner. And that was my first tattoo. And I got that, you know, for the obvious reason. That's pretty much the family symbol now. You know, it started off with my father getting it. Because this was the tattoo he wanted to get, you know, without the banners. But that's what he wanted to get.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
That's what he planned on getting the following year for his birthday. I mean, he already had it planned out, you know. And so my father came home with it one day, and he got it. And you and your dad, though, aren't the only... No, there's me and my father, Steve Prisbian, Mike Richburg, who still works here. My grandmother has the sad face.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
Yeah, she has it on her chest, too. And Eric Marwick, who worked here, has it also. And it's good. It's nice to see people. There's probably altogether 15 people that have his name tattooed on them. We used to sit around the kitchen table and take a needle and wrap thread around it and dip it in calligraphy ink and tattoo each other with it.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
And there's quite a few people who we masterfully tattooed Chad's name on their arm, whether they like it now or not. It's still there.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
You know, but that's how it was when it happened. I mean, you didn't know what to do. I had no idea what to do. I walked in the bathroom, I look in the mirror and I'm staring at myself in the mirror and I flipped out and started punching the mirror. So now both my hands are cut and I'm bleeding all over the place and sitting on the floor crying. I have no idea why.
This American Life
535: Origin Story
You know, when you're that old and something like that happens, you don't have any idea what to do in any circumstance. You know, walking across the bridge, looking down. Yeah, maybe. You sit there and think about it for a few minutes. It takes a lot out of you. It takes a lot out of your mind. And counseling made it worse for a while.