Prof G Markets
Blockbuster Week For Big Tech Earnings + Can the U.S. Fix Its Student Debt Crisis?
Mon, 05 May 2025
Scott and Ed discuss the latest U.S. GDP report, new data on China’s factory activity, and the launch of Amazon’s new internet satellites. Then they turn to Big Tech earnings, breaking down first quarter results from Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. Finally, they examine the Trump administration’s decision to resume forced collections on defaulted student loans, discussing the broader implications and potential solutions for addressing student debt. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets newsletter Order "The Algebra of Wealth," out now Subscribe to No Mercy / No Malice Follow the podcast across socials @profgpod: Instagram Threads X Reddit Follow Scott on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram and X Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Chapter 1: What are the latest updates on the U.S. GDP report?
Und das soll dir zeigen, wie viel wir in Amerika gemacht haben. Und also... Was das im Grunde bedeutet, wenn man einen riesigen Aufstieg in Importe in deinem Land hat, wird das bedeuten, dass der Nennexportnummer runtergeht, was bedeutet, dass der GDP-Nummer runtergeht. Und das ist das, was letzte Woche passiert ist. Denn alle wussten im Q1, dass Tarifen kommen würden.
Und so haben alle gezwungen, so viele Produkte wie möglich in die USA zu schicken, bevor die Tarifen in Effekt gingen. Das ist der Grund, warum wir 41% der Importe in Amerika gesehen haben, die im Endeffekt einen negativen Einfluss auf den GDP hatten. Dies ist nicht der große Tarif ist ein schlechtes Bericht, den Sie vielleicht denken. Es ist der nächste GDP-Bericht, den wir im Juli sehen werden.
Das ist der, der uns erzählen wird, was wirklich los ist. Und das ist der, wo ich denke, wir können eine mehr ehrlichere Analyse haben, was die Tarife auch gemacht haben. Aber, Scott, deine Reaktionen zu diesem GDP-Report, der viele Headlines gemacht hat und viele Leute darüber überrascht waren.
Ich liebe nicht GDP. Und auch GDP ist ein bisschen ein Lagerindikator. Und ich denke, dass die Trump-Administration rechtlich sagen kann, dass es mehr um die ökonomischen Policien von Biden ist, als es um uns ist. Und du... Das ist der richtige Ansatz. Aber warum hatten wir einen Aufstieg in den Importen? Weil die Leute sich über die Wirtschaft oder speziell diese Tarife unsicher fühlen.
And when I look at the uncertainty index, which has hit a new high since like the 80s, and consumer confidence, which has hit a new low since COVID, what it largely portends is that we're going to see a decline in GDP in the next quarter. I believe you're going to see a dramatic decrease in inventory in stores. If you just look at Diese unglaublichen Heatmaps von Schiffslänen.
Es gibt all diese Schiffe im Hongkonger Hafen, die nur warten, bis sie verpackt sind und nicht verpackt sind. Und dann der Port Los Angeles, der, glaube ich, der größte Port in der westlichen Hemisphäre ist. Es wird sehr wenig Offloading vorgenommen. So at some point, and I don't know if the lag is two weeks or two months, you're just going to see an absence of inventory in stores.
And consumers have gotten to the point where if they can't get what they want, they're so used to such a robust supply chain, they're going to think, A, if they're not feeling good about the consumer economy, they don't want to as aggressively buy that new home gym or whatever, and B... If the products they want are available, they use that as an excuse just not to buy.
So I think winter is coming. And that is, I would imagine the next quarter there's going to be, you know, they'll find another reason to blame Hunter Biden or something. But this is... They get a pass on this one, right?
But the fact that there's, again, this massive surge in imports is because our economy is making asymmetric, irrational decisions based on an unpredictable administration and unpredictable economic policy.
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Chapter 2: How is China’s factory activity affecting the economy?
And also you're already seeing that basically we're thrusting the EU into the arms of China and vice versa. Chinese e-commerce exports to the US fell by 65% last month, but exports to Europe rose by 28%. And also what we forget is that Europe is actually a bigger trading partner. So that's 28% on a bigger number.
So the big winner in the short term is the EU, because you got to think that a lot of these factories want to keep their assembly lines humming. And so they're going to call a lot of potential customers in Europe and say, hey, I can get you a great deal on this widget. I mean, this is effectively the way I would describe it.
America is not dead, but it's the equivalent of a death of the kind of existing post-World War II world order as led by the United States. And that is these traditional trading alliances that were built up over the last 80 years of trust, rule of law, intellectual property, It feels like that is dead.
And what we have is the largest yard sale from an estate sale from this rich old lady down the street who died. And everyone's showing up and trying to figure out how do they get their piece of a $25 trillion economy. I think our economy is going to shrink.
And a lot of other nations are going to try and figure out how they fill that void by either trade relationships with each other, grabbing market share from U.S. companies that will no longer have the same most favored nation status that they enjoy with their international partners.
And you're going to see a lot, in my opinion, you're going to see a lot of small, medium-sized businesses go out of business in the U.S. And that... That economic activity will be picked up by other people when the global economy fills in those holes, if you will. So it's interesting to try and think about who are the winners in the short, the medium and the long term.
Biggest loser in the long run, hands down the US, both short, medium and long, I think. But I think the EU is actually going to be a big winner here, because I got to think... China zeigt sich auf und sagt, hey, die Verkaufszeit des Jahrhunderts liegt gerade auf chinesischen Einkommen.
Ich denke, diese Daten, es zeigt den Punkt, den Ryan Peterson gemacht hat, als er auf den Podcast kam, dass er wirklich versucht hat, zu bemerken, was die Trump-Administration nicht versteht, dass der Handel ein positives Game ist. Wenn du etwas machst und ich es verkaufe, sind wir eigentlich beide da, wir haben beide Wert auf die Verkaufszeit.
So when we decide as a nation that we want to get into a trade war with China, it means that we lose out in a lot of ways in America in the form of we have less stuff, which leads to higher prices. And also China loses because they're losing business. They want to make stuff and ship it over to us. And we're now beginning to see that reflected in the data.
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Chapter 3: What does the Amazon Project Kuiper mean for broadband?
Wenn er nur wusste, dass er den Backen von Scott Galloway bekommen hätte, dann hätte er es vielleicht mitgebracht.
Letztendlich. Ich trete, das ist, was Leidenschaft aussieht, sende. Und plötzlich bekomme ich einen Text von Kara Swisher, er hat sich gekabelt. He caved. She saw my thread and literally as she saw my thread, she's like, he caved. You're wrong. He caved. He's a fucking wimp and a loser. And I'm like, and so I go back to Amazon and I cancel my order.
I was just going to say, do we get the headphones? No, we don't. No, bitch. Call Amazon. Call Bezos and tell him to start acting like an American. All right, I'll take it up with him. Aber das Wichtigste an dieser Geschichte ist, dass es so unabhängig ist, Dinge von Amazon Prime hinzuzufügen, dass es, wenn es aufkommt und sagt, Scott, Amazon Prime Plus enthält dieses blinde Broadband. Wow.
Ich würde beten, Gott, ich weiß nicht, ich würde beten, dass man bei der Ende von 27 sehr einfach Kuiper mehr Penetration als Starlink sehen könnte.
You've certainly convinced me. I'm definitely more bullish today than I was yesterday. We'll be right back after the break with a look at big tech earnings. If you're enjoying the show so far, be sure to give the ProfitMarkets feed a follow wherever you get your podcasts.
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Chapter 4: How did Big Tech perform in their recent earnings reports?
Chapter 5: What implications does the student debt crisis have for the economy?
Jeder Läufer kennt diesen Moment, wenn es einfach klickt. Wenn deine Beine einfach mitgehen, der Schmerz nachlässt, die Zweifel weg sind und du nur noch das Runners High spürst. Das ist der Grund, warum du so früh aufstehst. Warum dich ein bisschen Regen nicht aufhält. Warum Laufen zum Ritual wird. Also laufe und fühle das Runners High. Go Wild und erfahre mehr übers Laufen auf puma.de
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Heute ist der Nummer 16,6 Billionen Dollar. Das ist das Rekordniveau, das die amerikanischen Konsumenten zu Skammern und Cyberkriminalitäten lasten. Ed, ich habe nur keine Lüge darüber, aber ich habe viele junge Männer gehört, die diesen Podcast hören. Also habe ich die ultimative Pick-up-Line. Bist du bereit, Ed?
Du gehst zu jemandem, den du enttäuscht bist, und sagst, kannst du mir ein Bild nehmen? Everyone always says yes, right? No one ever says no to that. And then you say, can you turn on the mirror function and take a picture of the two of us? And she'll say, why? And you say, because someday I'm going to show it to our kids. Boom!
Ed, that's how you lose your virginity at 19. No, it isn't. Absolutely not. Well, hold on. Claire, would that work? That's a good line, no? I don't know. It depends how cute he is.
Yeah, better be very handsome. This guy better be incredibly handsome.
That's a very telling comment, because the difference between romance and creepiness is the perceived attractiveness of the person making the overture. Und es ist unmöglich zu wissen, ob das schrecklich oder romantisch ist.
Scott, hast du jemals eine dieser Pick-up-Lines in der Realität benutzt?
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