Prof G Markets
Nvidia Earnings are the Super Bowl of Business + Trump’s $5 Million Gold Card
Mon, 03 Mar 2025
Follow Prof G Markets: Apple Podcasts Spotify Scott and Ed open the show by discussing Tesla’s shrinking market cap, Berkshire Hathaway’s record-breaking tax bill, and BP’s pivot back to fossil fuels. Then they break down Nvidia’s earnings, explaining why investors weren’t impressed even though the company surpassed expectations. Ed shares why he still sees it as a win, despite Nvidia’s stock dipping slightly. They also discuss Trump’s new gold card visa program and explain why demand is more limited than the president thinks. Scott warns that the program could attract shady characters trying to buy their way into America. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets newsletter Join us for a live recording at SXSW Order "The Algebra of Wealth," out now Follow the podcast across socials @profgpod: Instagram Threads X Reddit Follow Scott on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram and X Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Chapter 1: Why are Tesla's market cap and stock plummeting?
This isn't CNBC. Agreed. Let's start with our weekly review of Market Vitals. The S&P 500 declined, the dollar rose, Bitcoin fell, and the yield on 10-year treasuries hit its lowest level since December. Shifting to the headlines. Tesla's market cap has fallen below $1 trillion, erasing nearly all of the stock's post-election gains.
Shares are down more than 25% so far this year, as investor concerns mount over growing competition and Elon Musk controversies. Warren Buffett announced that Berkshire Hathaway paid nearly $27 billion in taxes in 2024. That is the largest tax bill ever paid by a US company, accounting for roughly 5% of all corporate income taxes collected in the country that year.
And finally, BP announced it is shifting back to fossil fuels and scaling down investments in green energy. The company plans to spend around $10 billion a year on oil and gas to win back investors after its fourth quarter profit hit a four-year low. Despite that move, BP shares closed down about 1.5%. Scott, we'll start with Tesla, and I'm bracing myself for your victory lap here.
You predicted on February 13th.
I can't help it. I'm a broken clock here. Tesla is imploding. I think the stock is below $200 in the next six months.
It was trading at $356 a share then. We're not below $200, but we're now at $286. So it's down 20% since your prediction. Take it away.
I hate this motherfucker. I really, I don't know if you've sensed that.
Really?
Yeah. I have no emotional distance here. I'm changing my prediction. I think this thing goes below 150. Oh, keep it. Keep the original. I can't help it. It's at a P of 180, and its sales are off 75% in Germany. And across Europe, they're off dramatically. I think the car line is really stale. To be fair, the stock is still up 50% over the last 12 months, right? It had a huge run up.
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Chapter 2: Is Warren Buffett's tax bill a record-breaking milestone?
Chapter 3: What are the implications of BP's shift back to fossil fuels?
I think the similarities are very striking in that you have Napoleon, who was this like miraculously successful guy who took over all of Europe and tried to take over the world, and at the same time was also pretty universally disliked. But people never really did anything about it because they thought, you know, this guy is so talented. He's so powerful.
He conquered the Russians and the Prussians and the Spanish. He installed himself into office. He crowned himself emperor. Like, how could we ever bet against Napoleon? You never bet against Napoleon. And that's basically why people went along with this guy who was acting... honestly, very irrationally and kind of insane.
But it was only when he suffered this crushing defeat at Waterloo against the Duke of Wellington that people realized, actually, maybe this guy isn't untouchable. Actually, maybe he isn't a god. And the whole world turned on him at the exact same time, including the French, by the way. And he was banished to this remote island where he died sad and alone.
And I believe that that moment is coming for Elon. I believe it's going to take some big loss and suddenly all of this mystique and this intrigue and all of our glorification of his leadership abilities and his character and his genius, it's all just going to disintegrate in a second. And... At that moment, I think the citizens start to turn on him. We've seen that happening already.
But more importantly, I think the markets will turn on him too.
I think that moment happened 48 hours ago. I think it was Bill Burr. He's probably my favorite comedian. I think the guy's just a genius and he's fearless. And he's been known for being just incredibly politically incorrect. And he's a favorite... of what I'll call sort of the intelligent manosphere, and that is he just mocks the shit out of Democrats and political correctness.
And, you know, basically every viewer of MSNBC was grabbing their pearls every time they watch a Bill Burr clip. And he was just totally unafraid to be totally politically incorrect. And he went on a rant, and we should play that. We'll find the clip now.
I'll tell you what's funny. I made fun of the fucking Twitter guy. for fucking Sieg Heilig, not once but twice. And I never look at my emails. I was scrolling through my emails and it said my Twitter account had been flagged for inappropriate... I don't even tweet anymore. It had been flagged for... What a fucking baby. Just like Hitler. A fucking baby. Because that's another thing.
All of these people that are into fucking Hitler, you know what I mean? And like... Like, look at this guy like he was some sort of fucking hero. The guy was one of the biggest fucking cowards ever. All the pain and all the suffering that that guy's caused and the war crimes the allies had to commit, firebombing fucking cities to get that motherfucker.
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Chapter 4: How does the tax system affect different income levels?
Chapter 5: What is Trump's new gold card visa program?
Chapter 6: Why are Nvidia's earnings not impressing investors?
Buying a house has long been considered the best way to build wealth and move into true adulting.
Isn't it? I mean, at least that's what society wants us to think. Gotta get a Birkin, gotta get a home, you know.
Okay, the handbag you can probably manage without. But what about a house? Surely that's actually good, right? We're going to find out this week on Explain It To Me. New episodes every Sunday morning, wherever you get your podcasts.
Hey, this is Peter Kafka. I'm the host of Channels, a podcast about technology and media and how they're both changing all the time. And this week, I'm trying to figure out how Donald Trump is changing the media in Washington and the courtroom and in the boardroom. On to help me figure it all out is Sarah Fisher, the excellent Washington-based media reporter for Axios.
That's this week on Channels, wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
Today's number, $49 million. That's how much New York City's congestion pricing tolls brought in during the program's first month. This is an actual true story, Ed. When I first moved to New York, my first date was with a woman named Martha who took me to, no joke, a sex club. And one of us had sex, and it wasn't me, Ed. That's a true story. That's not a true story. No, it's a true story.
The club was called Trapeze.
You're going to have to elaborate. It's the final part that I'm really intrigued in.
Met this woman, really interesting woman, nice. I was very attracted to her. And I had this big deck. I lived at one Greenwich, and I had basically this like 700-foot apartment with a 3,000-square-foot deck, see above, single and desperate. And I used to have parties and people, and I met this woman, super hot, seemed super cool. Yeah. Asked her out. Kept asking her out.
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