At a time of enormous economic upheaval and uncertainty prompted by President Trump’s trade war, we asked our listeners what they wanted to understand about this financial moment.Ben Casselman, the chief economics correspondent for The New York Times, tries to answer some of those questions.Guest: Ben Casselman, the chief economics correspondent for The New York Times.Background reading: The U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter, in a reading clouded by messy trade data.Video: How Mr. Trump’s shifting tariffs could accelerate a recession.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. Photo: Angela Weiss/Agence France-Presse via Getty Images Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Chapter 1: What questions do listeners have about Trump's tariffs?
Hi, Michael and everyone at The Daily. Good morning. Hey. Hi, Daily. Hello.
From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. I had a quick question about Trump's tariff policies.
I have so many questions. I'm struggling to choose priority.
At a time of enormous economic upheaval and uncertainty triggered by President Trump's trade war, we asked you, our listeners, what you want to understand about this financial moment.
How many American businesses will even survive this?
What can actually be done to bring down the cost of goods?
No matter how big.
The question is whether or not the American dream is feasible in the next coming years.
What can I do to prepare for uncertain catastrophe?
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Chapter 2: How are tariffs affecting American businesses?
Hi, New York Times. My name is Sarah. I'm 27 years old, living in Saginaw, Michigan. My husband and I are expecting our first baby in October. My question today pertains to tariffs. Is there anything that new expecting parents can do to prepare? I'm worried about not having supplies for my baby, empty shelves, and the cost of goods greatly increasing, especially those from China.
What do you have to say besides Mazel Tov?
I was going to say, first of all, congratulations. You know, we normally think of tariffs as being mostly about higher prices, and they are for sure. But they can also be about the availability of goods. And when we talk about goods from China in particular... Right now, President Trump has imposed 145 percent tariffs on products from China. And you talk to some businesses.
I talked to a toy manufacturer recently who said at a certain point, 145, 150 is at a billion percent. It doesn't matter. I cannot pay that. And so there's certain things that just may not come in. Baby goods are a prime example of this. A ton of our strollers and cribs and other baby equipment comes from China. And a lot of that is not going to come.
Now, look, eventually, right, people will figure out workarounds. It's not like no crib will ever enter this country again. But, you know, babies famously come on a timeline, right? Sometimes ahead of time. Sarah can't presumably just say, you know, never mind, we'll get the crib sometime next year.
And so this is a situation where really the idea of trying to get something now before the tariffs make it impossible to get at any price is something I think we're going to see a lot of people starting to think about.
I think a reasonable question, and it's implied in Sarah's question, is, is it okay to kind of panic by now? We all know what happens when lots and lots of people decide to do that collectively at the same time. That's what happened during the pandemic. It can actually be pretty counterproductive and yet entirely, in this case, understandable.
Yeah, I mean, look, we saw in the pandemic how complicated supply chains are, how small disruptions can filter through in unexpected ways. Look, I don't think you need to rush out and buy a year's worth of socks right now, necessarily. But it's probably not a bad idea to buy a crib. You know, look, I'm cautious about giving specific advice to a specific person.
But yeah, I don't think it's crazy to say I better place that order for the crib now, even though I'm not going to need it for a little bit.
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