Ezra Klein

So imagine you're Donald Trump, or maybe you're one of Donald Trump's political advisors, or his kids, one of the ones who doesn't want to lose the midterms and start getting your crypto and AI trades investigated by congressional Democrats.

So you're there, and you're planning out last night's State of the Union, and you're

What would you do?

Well, you'd probably start with a problem that you need to solve.

The issues that got you elected in 2024 have turned into huge vulnerabilities in 2026.

Go back a year.

Go back to February 2025.

Immigration is your strongest issue.

All those weenie liberals looking at your approval rating can see it right there on Nate Silver's poll tracker.

Your net approval on immigration is around 10%.

That means 10% more of the country approves of the job you're doing

then disapproves of it.

Suck it, liberals.

Fast forward a year, your net approval on immigration is negative 13%.

Immigration has gone from your strongest issue to a reason the country dislikes you.

Or take the economy.

In early February of 2025, you were doing pretty well, plus 7%.

But then came the tariffs.

Now your net approval on the economy is negative 17%, negative 17%.

And it gets worse.