The Trump Administration turns its focus to Europe as President Trump signals a willingness to cooperate with Russia. WSJ’s Alex Ward joins Ryan Knutson and Molly Ball to discuss what that means for an end to the war in Ukraine. Further Reading: -Trump’s Turn to Russia Spooks U.S. Allies Who Fear a Weakened NATO -Trump’s Attack on Zelensky Signals New World Order Taking Shape Further Listening: -Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance -R.I.P. CFPB? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What is the U.S. strategy towards Ukraine under Trump?
But the Trump administration is willing to do without Ukraine at the table, which marks a pretty big shift in how the U.S. deals with Russia.
It's a very big shift. I think... It's too soon to say exactly what the results of this will be, but at least rhetorically, it is a massive shift in the way America talks about our position in the world and our alliances.
Should anyone be surprised about this based on the way Trump talked about Ukraine and the rest of the world during the campaign?
Yes and no. Like so many things Trump does, it is shocking but not surprising.
A lot to talk about today, as always. From The Journal, this is Trump 2.0. I'm Ryan Knudson.
And I'm Molly Ball.
It's Friday, February 21st. Coming up, President Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine. So how is he going to do it? And what will that mean for the rest of Europe? All right, so we spent the last few weeks talking mostly about President Trump's efforts to cut the federal government. We've been talking about Elon Musk and Doge and USAID. But now the focus has really shifted overseas to Ukraine.
So to help us understand this shift in what's been going on with Ukraine, we brought in our colleague Alex Ward, who covers national security. Hi, Alex. Hey, how are you?
Hey, Alex.
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Chapter 2: How does Trump's approach differ from Biden's?
So Alex, how would you describe how the U.S. government's position is changing on Russia and Ukraine under the Trump administration?
The Biden administration's whole view was the U.S. provides Ukraine support militarily, economically, and will only consider negotiations when the Ukrainians are ready. The Trump administration has a very different view. Their view is now is the time to have negotiations because Ukraine can't win, which is a fair argument to make.
But the question now is as the negotiations go is does Putin actually want to negotiate? Will the Ukrainians agree to whatever might be on the table? And will the U.S. just cut a deal that in theory stops the fighting and call it as a win but leaving the wounds to fester in Eastern Europe?
So regardless of whether Ukraine wants these negotiations or not, these negotiations are now taking place between the U.S. and the Russians. There was a meeting this week in Saudi Arabia. As these negotiations get underway, what's the Trump administration's position compared to the Biden administration's?
I mean, actually, in some ways, if you think about it, the position is quite similar, right? I mean, the Biden administration didn't want Ukraine and NATO. Trump doesn't want Ukraine and NATO. The Biden administration didn't think Ukraine could necessarily win the war. The Trump administration doesn't think Ukraine can win the war.
And the Biden administration thought this war would end with a negotiated settlement. And the Trump administration believes it's going to end with a negotiated settlement. So there actually isn't a massive difference. The big one—and this is a big one—is that the Biden administration said— No deal about Ukraine without Ukraine.
There will only be negotiations when the Ukrainians say they are ready. And Trump is clearly saying the opposite, right? We're going to start these talks now, whether Ukraine wants to or not. And there are talks literally happening without Ukraine. So that's a big shift. But in terms of the grand architecture, there's actually a lot more similarity than differences between Biden and Trump.
There is another big shift, though, which is in the way Trump is talking about this conflict, and specifically the way he's talking about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. After Trump's phone call with Putin, Trump said that Zelensky was a dictator, he said there should be new elections in Ukraine, and he accused Ukraine of starting the war. What do you make of that?
I mean, it's certainly shocking, right? I mean, we have known that Trump tends to occasionally listen to parrot Kremlin talking points, and he was on a long phone call with Vladimir Putin, so it's very possible that a lot of this literally came from that conversation. But, I mean, this was quite the escalation. It is certainly the harshest comments by any U.S.
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Chapter 3: What is Trump's stance on Zelensky and Ukraine?
It seems like President Trump is pushing for the war to end, but he's doing a lot of the pushing against Ukraine. And he wants the war to end, even if that means giving in to Russia on some of its demands.
Yeah, if the war ended right now, then Russia will have effectively taken 20% of Ukraine's territory and there will be no security guarantees of, you know, what could happen in the future, say, if Russia rearms, which European intelligence indicates could happen in about five years. And the overlying question to all of this is...
Does Trump desire – what does he desire more, a really good outcome in the negotiations in the war or some sort of mega – or some sort of deal where the U.S. and Russia can become friends again? My instinct and so far it seems he cares more about the U.S.-Russia relationship improving than he does about a good quote-unquote outcome in the Ukraine war.
And those two are quite literally like fighting in parallel.
Molly, could this strategy cost Trump politically in any way if the Trump administration resolves this conflict by giving in to some or many of Russia's demands?
Yeah, I think there is a possibility that this doesn't go over well politically. We have seen that majorities of Americans consistently do see the Ukrainians as the good guys in this conflict. And depending on how you ask the question, do support Ukraine. the U.S. taking the side of Ukraine.
Now, that doesn't mean that people have unlimited patience for continuing to send money and aid or that people would favor sending American troops to aid the Ukrainians. But the last time I saw a poll that asked people's approval of Vladimir Putin in the United States, it was something like 8%. Not a popular guy. Putin is not a popular figure in the U.S.,
even among Republicans and Trump supporters.
Let's talk about how Europe is responding to all this. Alex, last week you attended the Munich Security Conference in Germany, which is this major annual convention of European security experts. And Vice President J.D. Vance gave this big speech that seemed to reframe America's relationship with Europe.
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Chapter 4: Could Trump's strategy affect his political standing?
This order is easy to disrupt, it's easy to destroy, but it's much harder to rebuild. So let us stick to these values, let us not reinvent them, but focus on strengthening their consistent application. Let me conclude, and this becomes difficult.
I mean, this was a massive signal to Europe that, like, the U.S. is not who you thought it was. It's not your friend anymore. All the evidence Europeans have is the U.S. is not the friend of Europe that it used to be and is far more antagonistic than it used to be.
And so I think this conference, which is supposed to kind of be about, you know, where to from here on Ukraine, ended up becoming something broader about where to from here for the transatlantic alliance writ large.
Where does Europe go from here? What options does it have?
I mean, I think the loudest voices are those who are freaked out, right? Hey, maybe the U.S. isn't a reliable ally anymore. You know, they might be selling Ukraine up a river here. This is a problem. And now we in Europe need to actually like start reorienting our foreign policy in a way or away from the United States. We relied on the U.S. security for so much.
We spent on a bunch of other things, you know, like social welfare programs, et cetera. And we've let our militaries decay. And now we're in this moment where the U.S. has been warning us to spend more. And now, you know, effectively, this is shock therapy.
that would be the Trump administration's argument, and there are a lot of Americans that would sort of agree with it, and frankly, there are now Europeans who are like, this is a bit on us.
So, Alex, how would you describe what the new world order is then under Trump and Trump's worldview?
I mean, it's hard to know. We're only a month in, but I think it's very clear that the United States are no longer, as of this moment, following the tenets of that post-World War II order, right, where it's now tariffs are good, You know, we don't necessarily have to support a democracy. Allies are not necessarily allies. They're takers, not sort of force multipliers.
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Chapter 5: How is Europe reacting to Trump's foreign policy shift?
— Molly, how long do you think this shift will last? Or will it just change again if a Democrat wins the White House in 2028?
The argument that I've been hearing is that it is de facto permanent because no matter what happens next, people's sort of faith in the U.S. has been shattered. That having now elected Trump twice, it doesn't matter if the next American presidents are staunch internationalists because they just can't trust us not to do something like elect a Trump who has... Opposite views, right?
Like, as you were alluding to, there was this idea that sort of politics stops at the water's edge. But we now see sort of definitively that there's a new Republican Party that doesn't believe that and that is poised to be the either ruling or opposition party in the U.S. for the next generation.
All right, we're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, we'll talk some more with Alex about Russia and the deeper meaning behind Trump's long live the king post. So stick around. All right, Molly, Alex, as you know, we love listener questions on this show. And we've got one from William Green in Brooklyn that happens to be about Russia.
When President Trump talks about geopolitics, he often talks about it in 19th and early 20th century terms, in terms of great powers and spheres of influence. And this is most obvious in his dealings with Vladimir Putin. In light of that, and in light of his recent controversial remarks on Ukraine, my question is, does Trump think it was a mistake to push for the collapse of the Soviet Union?
And would he welcome an attempt by President Putin to reclaim it? Thank you.
Thanks for the question, William. It's a really interesting one. I will say, I don't know if I've ever heard Trump utter the words spheres of influence, right? But I do think there's an interesting point to be made here about sort of the tension between isolationism and nationalism, right? Because you have Trump saying that America first means America looks out for its own interest.
Other countries are free to do the same. But inevitably, it comes into tension, right, when America has interest in these other places, but they are pursuing single-mindedly their own self-interest. So if you retreat from the world and say, no, no, we're only about America first now, you don't get to say what Russia does in Europe. You've sort of forfeited your part of that argument.
Oh, I have so many thoughts on this. Okay. I'd love to hear them. Okay, first of all, in Trump 1.0, I thought what was fascinating is their main sort of theory of the case was, hey, sovereignty. Every country gets to do what it wants. I'm sort of going off of Molly's point here. Now it's very different, right? Vance goes into Germany and says, hey, Germans, do this.
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Chapter 6: What was the impact of J.D. Vance's speech at the Munich Conference?
All right, Alex, thanks so much for your time. Yeah, thanks for having me. Sorry I talked so much.
Thanks, Alex.
All right, Molly, before I let you go, I've got one more question. On Wednesday, Trump posted on his media platform, Truth Social, long live the king, referring to himself. This was alongside an announcement that he's going to revoke a Biden era approval of congestion pricing in New York City.
And then the White House posted an image of Trump wearing a crown that said the same thing, long live the king. Do you think that Trump is just trolling? Or is this a reflection of how he actually sees himself?
Yes.
Yes to both.
I think the answer is yes to both. And it's nothing new. And I think there's also a third option to which the answer is also yes. And that option is, or is this about the expansion of executive power in a way that many, particularly Republicans, have sought for many years? And the answer to that is also yes.
And then there's also this post that he made on social media where he said, he who saves his country does not violate any law, which seems to be sort of part of the same theme.
Right. This idea that he sees himself as having sort of imperial unrestricted power. Look, There has always been this group of Republican legal scholars who believed that the president embodied the executive branch and ought to have vastly more power than he currently holds in the way the sort of customs and norms of our constitutional system.
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