Molly Ball
Appearances
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
It's been kind of all over the place. We've seen, I mean, a blizzard of lawsuits. I frankly cannot keep track of them all. But, you know, they're in various courts in various places with various judges. And those judges have come to different conclusions about the extent to which the things that Trump and Elon Musk are doing are legal.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
So what that means in our system, right, is that those decisions get appealed and then judges at higher levels have to sort of resolve these disputes, these disagreements between judges. So I think we are still waiting for this to trickle its way up. And we mostly expect that the big questions will eventually be decided by the Supreme Court.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And in fact, this week, the Supreme Court actually did weigh in for the first time, but only to put a temporary hold on a lower court's decision. And so I think we're still waiting for the Supreme Court to ultimately resolve a lot of these really pivotal questions about executive power.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
Well, there have been courts that have said, stop, you can't do this. There have been courts that have said either, you know, you have to pay out this money that you've frozen or put on pause or no, you may not take this action that you are trying to take. There are questions about whether the administration is actually complying. with some of these rulings, right?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
There are allegations that, you know, one judge has raised the possibility that the administration doesn't seem to be complying with his order to continue to fund certain programs, for example.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
So this is part of why some Trump critics are talking about a constitutional crisis, because it's not clear in our system what would happen if the courts told the president to do something and he just said no.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
It was fascinating, and mostly because of someone who is not technically in the cabinet.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
Who spoke first and spoke nearly as much as the president and spoke far more than any of the actual cabinet secretaries in the room. I am referring, of course, to Elon Musk.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And he continues to be this figure of fascination who seems to have, you know, free reign in the executive branch, although the technicalities of his position are still very unclear. He seems to like it that way, right? Because it lets him just sort of go wherever he wants and do whatever he wants.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
But the lines of authority are very unclear, and this cabinet meeting certainly did nothing to resolve it because it seemed like, kind of like the Oval Office meeting a couple weeks ago, you know, Elon is kind of standing there answering all the questions almost on behalf of the president.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And Trump professes to be delighted by everything that Musk is doing, but there continue to be questions about, particularly, as you point out, you know, now that the cabinet is in place, don't they want to be in charge instead of Elon Musk when it comes to the departments and the workforces that they oversee?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
So when Elon Musk, for example, sends an email that says, you must answer this email with the five things you did last week, and then several of the cabinet departments run by, you know, unequivocal Trump loyalists, like, say, Kash Patel at the FBI.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And they tell their workforces, actually, you don't have to answer the email. It might, you know, compromise security or whatever. And it plays into the congressional discussion as well, because while people think of this as just a bunch of Washington bureaucrats, 85% of federal workers are outside of Washington. You know, these are the doctors at the VA who treat your local veterans.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
These are the park rangers in Montana who, you know, police the national parks. And so these are regular people in local communities who are being affected by the upheaval in the federal government. And the Trump appointees who are responsible for their well-being aren't necessarily thrilled about that.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
Well, it's a Republican Congress, for one thing. Republicans, as you may remember, when they won the election in November, also won slim majorities in the House and Senate. And they see themselves as very much Trump's team. And this is different from when Trump was first in office eight years ago. During Trump's first term, he also had a Republican Congress, including the House and Senate.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
Certainly, we are not seeing any outward signs of that at this point. And I think you hit on it exactly, that by staging a sort of show like this and having everyone voice their approval, Trump is able to
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
create the appearance that everyone is on board with everything that is happening but i think you can see from the way that this back and forth has gone down with musk and the emails uh that there is tension there great any uh final thoughts before we let you go nothing much going on right as usual very quiet yeah well thanks so much for your time thank you ryan
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And in fact, there were bigger Republican majorities, but they were not as Trumpy. This time, Trump and Congress alike basically feel like they are there because of him. They got there on his electoral coattails. So they really feel like they are there to execute his agenda and get done the stuff that Trump and Republicans promised to do.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
Or potentially Elon Musk, yeah. But while Trump is putting on a big show, and it seems like he's doing all these things, for any of it to actually have the force of law, it has to go through Congress.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
Well, I want to remind people that Mike Johnson got to be Speaker of the House kind of by accident, right? A year and a half ago, Kevin McCarthy was the Republican Speaker of the House, and he was sort of assassinated from within his own ranks, Caesar style. And There was a chaotic power vacuum where we had no Speaker of the House for several weeks.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And it was as a result of that process that they finally settled on Mike Johnson, who not a lot of people knew very well. And a lot of people, including some of his own colleagues, saw him as sort of a placeholder and didn't think that he would remain Speaker after the election.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
So I think Johnson gets a lot of credit for really doing the work. He spent that time really shoring up his relationships with other Republican members, but really with Donald Trump. Johnson correctly assessed that his ticket to power was sticking as close to Trump as possible because it is Trump who has all the power in the Republican Party.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And because Republican voters want their members of Congress to do what Trump wants to do, Johnson, by sticking super close to Trump, has been able to ally himself with the most powerful figure in the party. And Trump has been helpful to him in return. But, you know, my reporting suggests that Trump is still a bit skeptical of Johnson. He is not sure that Johnson is tough enough.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
Frankly, there's a feeling with everyone around Trump, like they're sort of walking on eggshells and could be fired at any moment. So Johnson sort of knows that he serves at Trump's pleasure and that that relationship with Trump is going to be crucial to not only his success, but really his survival.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
It's basically the entire Trump agenda, this bill. They're talking about, on the one hand, funding a lot of Trump's priorities, particularly his immigration agenda, which is going to be very expensive, and a lot of things he wants to do on energy. And then they want to dramatically cut the government, make it smaller, right?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
It was really a big week for Congress because they actually finally passed something.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And then importantly, you know, the major legislative achievement of Trump's first term was the big tax cut bill in 2017. And most of those tax cuts are going to expire this year if they don't pass them again. So a big part of this legislative package that they're trying to do is to renew those tax cuts, keep them from expiring.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
But there's also a disagreement between the House and Senate over how to get this done because, yes, Trump says he wants one big, beautiful bill, but there's also a plan B, which is two big, beautiful bills. The Senate has been trying to do two bills at the same time as the House. And so they're sort of working in parallel, sort of racing each other to see who can get there first.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
But the Senate wants to put sort of all the candy in the first bill, the spending on immigration and energy and so forth, and then spend the rest of the year doing the second bill fighting over tax cuts.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
So, Siobhan, the Senate has also been working in parallel. How different is what the House passed from what the Senate's done so far?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And I do think it's important to give credit to Mike Johnson. This is a big win for him, right? He still has a lot of doubters who don't think he's very good at his job, but his strategy worked.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And his strategy is just stick as close to Trump as possible and get Trump to do the heavy lifting when necessary because Republicans in the House and Senate want a lot of things, but they do not want to be seen as defying Trump or rebelling against him and So if Trump comes in and says, I'm going to go after you if you don't do what I want, they're going to do what he wants.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
The phones in Congress have also been literally ringing off the hook, right?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
It's a great question, and it was a major topic of my conversation with Johnson when I interviewed him for this piece. You know, Mike Johnson's background is he's a constitutional lawyer, and he will tell you he's a big Article I guy. Now, what is Article I? Literally the first thing in the Constitution is Congress, and the president comes after that.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And so Congress, members of Congress will often point to this to say, actually, you know, we're more important. And the Constitution does suggest that the legislative branch is the primary locus of power when it comes to setting policy, and the president is sort of secondary.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
So you would think that there would be a lot of tension, right, at a time when the president is doing a lot of things that critics and some courts think go beyond the power that the Constitution gives him. Shouldn't it be up to Congress to push back against that, to rein him in, to say, no, actually, that's our job? But Johnson believes that Trump is not doing anything to take away from Congress.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
He believes that the stuff that Elon Musk is doing, for example, is great because it's stuff that Congress has tried and failed to do in the past. He says that, you know, they've tried to exercise oversight over agencies such as USAID, but been blocked by bureaucrats who wouldn't give them the information they needed to make the cuts they seek, for example.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
So he completely rejects this idea that there is a constitutional crisis or a separation of powers issue here. And he believes that Congress is doing its job and is going to do its job by legislating and sort of carrying out the things that Trump has sort of started to do by executive order.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
I was just going to observe, you know, it's as if they took Richard Nixon's statement, if the president does it, it's not illegal, and made it into a legal theory.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
So last question. This is really important. Do you have a March Madness favorite?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
So there's a couple of things happening here. First of all, because all but one House Democrat voted against this bill, they felt hung out to dry by the Senate. There was clearly a miscommunication between the House and Senate Democrats where House Democrats felt like they took a political risk here and then the Senate sold them out. So that's part of the anger.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
But the other part of the anger is really coming from the Democratic base. Rank and file Democrats are livid and terrified and feel a sense of existential rage at what they believe is an apocalyptically terrible administration and what it is doing to the things that they hold dear. And they want Democrats to do something, do anything to try to stop it.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
And this was a very rare moment because, remember, Democrats have very limited structural power in this moment. They're in the minority in the House and the Senate. This was a very, very rare moment where Republicans actually needed the Democrats' votes. And so Democrats felt like they should get something from that. There should have been some kind of negotiation.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
And there was, again, not good communication from Chuck Schumer and the Senate Democrats. They seemed to threaten to withhold their votes one day, and then the next day they supplied the votes. So just a debacle.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
I don't think that's going to happen. Chuck Schumer retains the nearly unanimous support of his members in the Senate Democratic Caucus. He himself is not up for election again for four more years, which is a lifetime in politics. Some House Democrats have called for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to primary Chuck Schumer.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
But again, that would be way, way down the road if indeed it were to happen at all. Mm-hmm. And she notably had a chance to do that two years ago and decided not to. So the political risks for Chuck Schumer are quite remote at this time, but he's still under a lot of pressure just because there's so much anger at him.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
Also from the grassroots, a lot of grassroots liberal groups vowing to put more pressure on Senate Democrats, bring primaries against other Senate Democrats. So Chuck Schumer has really been in the hot seat.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
It's hard to see where. You know, there are a few special elections coming up. The Trump administration, having tapped several House Republicans for cabinet posts, means that there's two vacancies in Florida. There will be a special election in just a couple weeks for those. Once Elise Stefanik is confirmed as U.N. ambassador, there will be another vacancy in upstate New York.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
My team? You know I don't take sides. No, I'm talking about March Madness. March Madness. Oh, Ryan, I'm way too much of a nerd for that. I was talking about the judicial branch. Nerds love basketball too, Molly. Not this nerd. Sorry.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
But all of these are deep red districts. Republican member by a big double digit margin in 2024. So it would be a really steep climb for Democrats to win any of these seats. And that would be a purely symbolic victory. It would not give even if they were to win these seats, Democrats would not have a majority in the House.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
So they would still be in this situation of being really sort of at a loss for what to do. You is up in arms and wants to see them do something. But structurally, there's just very, very, very little that they can do. And I've been doing some reporting on this and spending some time with grassroots Democrats.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
And there is a real feeling of powerlessness and of fear and of anger that they are so helpless in this moment.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
wait does that mean we won we get to move up in the bracket I hope everybody had us in their brackets because dang it we were the underdogs but we we did it we have to win more games yeah there's still several more games bring it on Ryan I'm ready for the final four let's go yeah there we go that's where we're headed all right thanks so much Molly shooting threes all day thanks Ryan thanks talk to you soon bye
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
To really make it the highest court in the land, Supreme Court decisions have to be appealable to the basketball court, right? So if you don't like your decision from the Supreme Court, you can settle it in, like, what do you call a basketball scoring?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
I mean, these separation of powers questions have no easy answers, and that might be the way to settle them.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
And this is District Court Judge James Boasberg, who is an Obama appointee, correct? He's the one who's been the main target of Trump and other conservatives' anger here?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
I did see it. A pretty remarkable statement this week from the Supreme Court chief justice, John Roberts, who, you know, was nominated by a conservative president, generally votes with the conservatives on the court. But this statement essentially was calling out President Trump.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
Jess, like reading between the lines here, what is Roberts thinking here? What is he trying to say with his statement?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
So several House Republicans have now introduced impeachments against different judges, actually. Generally, it doesn't seem like something that the Republicans in Congress have much of an appetite for. It is a quite high bar for impeachment. The House has to pass it, and then two-thirds of the Senate has to approve it, similar to a presidential impeachment process.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
And I would say the Republican leadership in the House believes that the votes aren't there for this to get through the House in their narrow majority. And also that it's a distraction from the other things they're trying to do. They have their hands full with their legislative agenda and they don't view this as something they should be spending time on.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
I think it's already here. It's happening. And it feels it's consequential and it's intentional. This is something that the administration has put into motion on purpose in order to both advance their agenda and potentially change legal precedent.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
Hey, Ryan. Are you ready to talk about all the hot court action this week?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
Well, and this is the sort of ultimate confrontation that everyone seems to be sort of girding for, right? I mean, it's been really interesting to me that... You've had people high up in the administration, including Vice President J.D. Vance, you know, quoting that apocryphal Andrew Jackson statement, the chief justice has made his ruling, let him enforce it.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Showdown With the Judiciary
But when Trump is asked this question, he's repeatedly backed down. He'd say, oh, no, that's something you can't do. You can't just disregard something the court has said. How serious a possibility is that? And would that constitute a constitutional crisis?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
I think the answer is yes to both. And it's nothing new. And I think there's also a third option to which the answer is also yes. And that option is, or is this about the expansion of executive power in a way that many, particularly Republicans, have sought for many years? And the answer to that is also yes.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Right. This idea that he sees himself as having sort of imperial unrestricted power. Look, There has always been this group of Republican legal scholars who believed that the president embodied the executive branch and ought to have vastly more power than he currently holds in the way the sort of customs and norms of our constitutional system.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Trump just seems to want to do stuff and not think that anyone should be able to stop him.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Right. And I think, you know, there's a really interesting and nuanced discussion to be had here about executive power, even if that is not necessarily the discussion that Trump himself is participating in. Right. I think a lot of Americans have been frustrated for many years with the gridlock and polarization that have happened.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
turned Congress into basically a non-functioning body and have made it impossible for governments to actually implement the things that candidates campaign on, right? So we have a campaign where one candidate's like, we're going to do health care, and the other candidate's like... We're going to reform entitlements.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
And then no matter who it is that gets into office, they just can't do anything because of what a political scientist would call all of the veto points built into our system of governance. And the way that a lot of what started out as relatively straightforward checks and balances happened.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
have been choked over the years with, you know, different bureaucratic requirements and institutions and personnel and so forth. So I'm not trying to whitewash the arguably authoritarian impulses that Trump is flamboyantly displaying.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
But that doesn't mean that he doesn't have a point about the ways in which our system has made it hard for presidents to actually do the things that they promised to do.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
And this is the argument of a lot of the Trump allies who say this isn't contradictory to democracy. This is democracy in action. People voted for Trump. They want him to do the things that he said he was going to do.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
And if the system is set up in such a way as to make it impossible for him to do those things, he is actually being small d democratic, pursuing the will of the people by seeking ways to do those things.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Along those lines, Alex, I understand there's a lot of outrage about the administration's rhetoric, particularly toward Zelensky. But is there any chance that this could be an effective strategy, that it could actually be effective in changing the dynamic, potentially even making peace more possible?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
It's a very big shift. I think... It's too soon to say exactly what the results of this will be, but at least rhetorically, it is a massive shift in the way America talks about our position in the world and our alliances.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Yeah, I think there is a possibility that this doesn't go over well politically. We have seen that majorities of Americans consistently do see the Ukrainians as the good guys in this conflict. And depending on how you ask the question, do support Ukraine. the U.S. taking the side of Ukraine.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Now, that doesn't mean that people have unlimited patience for continuing to send money and aid or that people would favor sending American troops to aid the Ukrainians. But the last time I saw a poll that asked people's approval of Vladimir Putin in the United States, it was something like 8%. Not a popular guy. Putin is not a popular figure in the U.S.,
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
There's so much buzz in Washington about this speech, and it seems like something that is likely to sort of go down in history and be remembered, which is pretty rare for anything a vice president says. Do you think the speech was that important? And what did you think of it?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Yes and no. Like so many things Trump does, it is shocking but not surprising.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
The argument that I've been hearing is that it is de facto permanent because no matter what happens next, people's sort of faith in the U.S. has been shattered. That having now elected Trump twice, it doesn't matter if the next American presidents are staunch internationalists because they just can't trust us not to do something like elect a Trump who has... Opposite views, right?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Like, as you were alluding to, there was this idea that sort of politics stops at the water's edge. But we now see sort of definitively that there's a new Republican Party that doesn't believe that and that is poised to be the either ruling or opposition party in the U.S. for the next generation.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Thanks for the question, William. It's a really interesting one. I will say, I don't know if I've ever heard Trump utter the words spheres of influence, right? But I do think there's an interesting point to be made here about sort of the tension between isolationism and nationalism, right? Because you have Trump saying that America first means America looks out for its own interest.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Other countries are free to do the same. But inevitably, it comes into tension, right, when America has interest in these other places, but they are pursuing single-mindedly their own self-interest. So if you retreat from the world and say, no, no, we're only about America first now, you don't get to say what Russia does in Europe. You've sort of forfeited your part of that argument.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
So the first legal proceedings on this were just held this week, and I think we're still waiting for a lot of it to play out in court. A judge has partially blocked the administration's action here, but I think there's a long way to go before we fully understand what the arguments are in this case.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
The administration is trying to send a message here. They're trying to make a statement. And Secretary of State Marco Rubio came out and said, you know, there's going to be more where this came from. So, you know, these protests were a big flashpoint during the campaign.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
And Trump and people around him made very clear that they wanted to crack down on them much harder than the Biden administration did.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
It's essentially a states' rights argument. The Republicans have long felt, going back decades, that the Department of Education was not necessary, that education is primarily a local affair. There's over 10,000 school districts in America, and that's where most of the action takes place. And most of that funding comes from states and localities.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
And when voters look back on his first term, the principal thing that they remember is that the economy was good.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
What the Department of Education primarily does is twofold. It is civil rights enforcement, making sure that local school districts follow civil rights law, and it's funding for low-income students and students with disabilities. And that funding has to continue. These are functions that are not optional.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
They're congressionally mandated that, you know, this money gets spent to support students with disabilities, for example.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
Correct. The idea is that it might be moved into different parts of the government or sort of block granted to the states rather than having a federal department that administers it. In practice, I think we have yet to see whether they can pull that off and how disruptive it may be, how much people may notice it in their everyday lives as a disruption to services that they rely on.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
For decades, Republicans have said they want to get rid of the Department of Education, and then they get elected and they get into office and they don't do it.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
And the reason they don't do it is because there's a feeling that the politics of it are prohibitive, that it sounds nice as a campaign promise, but once you actually start meddling with people's education and with the education of their children— that leads to a lot of political blowback.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
So Reagan, for example, tried to do this and then backed off, and other presidents have not even really wanted to touch it, despite various promises in this regard.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
Doesn't seem like it. It seems like, you know, the stock market's going down, various economic indicators are wobbly, and people are nervous.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
The principal thing that the Democrats demanded was some kind of structural check on Elon Musk and Doge, some kind of language that would say that, Basically, the executive branch has to do what Congress tells them to do, that if they're going to pass this funding, you know, the president has to abide by that. And the Republicans didn't agree to that.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
So Democrats have had a series of anguished closed-door meetings. We reported on Wednesday that you could hear yelling coming out of the Senate Democratic lunch. On the one hand— The Democratic base is absolutely on fire with anger. They are outraged. They want to see their leaders fighting back against what they see the Trump administration doing.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
On the other hand, Senate Democrats don't want to be blamed for shutting down the government. They don't want to be blamed for federal workers being furloughed and services being cut off. They see that as, you know, politically unfair. dicey for them, and many of them believe that they have a responsibility to keep the government open.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
So at the last minute, the Democrats found a way to get themselves to a point where they would agree to this deal to keep the government open. I think it raises a lot of questions going forward about what, if any, leverage they may have in the future, given that this was the main thing where Republicans needed their votes.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
Look, Democrats were in a difficult, if not impossible, spot politically, and they made the best of what they saw as two bad choices.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
So, Nick, what is happening in the economy right now?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
Look, there's no question that this has been an action-packed and eventful first 50 days of the Trump presidency. He has signed a record number of executive orders. At the same time, he has not passed a lot of legislation. And especially considering that he does have, you know, majorities in the House and Senate, the legislative agenda is strikingly modest.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
But one of the things he's very good at is creating the impression of action, creating the impression of So that people feel like he's doing stuff. And that's a big, I think, part of the Trump political profile is just this idea that he's a strong leader. He's a man of action.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
It's pretty remarkable. I mean, especially coming from Trump, right, who is usually someone who is sort of full of optimistic bluster, for lack of a better word, who is very good at messaging the idea that everything's going great. I think, you know, the president and the people around him feel that he was elected on a platform of change and he was elected as a disruptive figure.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
And so he has a sort of unique opportunity. And also because he is just such a dominant messenger, he has this unique ability to convince people that, yes, you're going to have to suffer a little bit, but it's for the greater good. And once we get through this period of dislocation, everyone's going to be better off and the in a way that is better for the country long term.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
I think there's a lot of jitters about whether that's actually true, but it is a pretty unusual thing to be seeing in politics, a president who's basically admitting, like, yes, I am causing you to have some unpleasantness in your day-to-day life, and I'm doing that on purpose because I'm trying to achieve something bigger.
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Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
Well, I'd love to hear what Nick thinks about this as well. You know, the Business Roundtable, which is a group of top executives, was in D.C. this week and Trump spoke to them. And I also spoke to many of the executives and people around them who were in town for this meeting today. And in the public session, the on-camera part that Trump spoke at, it was very friendly.
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Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
There was no criticism, really. But privately, that was not what you heard. Privately, I was struck by the level of pessimism. A lot of these CEOs and people in the business community are feeling very concerned and alarmed by where this is headed. The thing that really alarms a lot of people in the business community is they always thought that Trump would be responsive to the market going down.
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Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
They always thought that that was a really important metric to him. And if something he did started to make the stock market slip, he would change course. And the fact that he's looking at the stock market slipping and saying, we're going to brazen through it, that has really set a lot of people on edge. But Nick, what do you think?
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Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
In exit polls, voters said that the number one issue for the plurality of voters was the economy, specifically prices. And they rated Trump much better on that issue than his opponent, Kamala Harris. And I think in a bigger sense, the economy has always been central to Trump's political brand. He's seen as a businessman. He's seen as someone who has a command of the economy.
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Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
Just like I will never tell you who's going to win an election.
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Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
That's right. We hit a big milestone this week. In the first 100 days, we have passed day 50.
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Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
They have said that they are revoking his green card. Interestingly, it appears that they may not have originally understood that that was what they were doing. His lawyer said that when they first went to detain him, they said they were revoking his student visa. And he said, no, I have a green card. And they said, well, we're revoking that too.
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Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
But they have said that they are revoking his green card because he led these protests, essentially. And he hasn't been accused of a crime, but instead the administration has invoked this sort of obscure statute that says that someone's permission to be in the country can be revoked or suspended if they interfere with American foreign policy.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
So the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act essentially says if you are an American company and you're doing business overseas, you're not allowed to pay bribes to, you know, corrupt governments or officials in other countries. Of course, this is a very common way of doing business in all sorts of countries all over the world. But the idea is that it is not legal for American businesses.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
to be engaging in this. And so Trump, in taking this action, said that basically it cast this as a regulation that was inhibiting American business practices, which of course it does. It's much harder to do business in a lot of places if you're not allowed to pay bribes.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
But it is a significant tension or irony in the whole sort of drain the swamp mantra that Trump has taken up that he is undoing a lot of the mechanisms that are aimed at precisely that, preventing corruption.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
Well, I think, you know, most of the reaction to Trump breaks down on partisan lines. And so Democrats and critics of the administration say this proves that, you know, he's a liar and a hypocrite. He's corrupt. He just wants the corruption that favors him. But, you know, Trump's fans and supporters and most Republicans say, look, this is about the deregulatory agenda.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
This is about making it easier for companies to do business and getting rid of regulations that are not actually useful but just get in the way of business and progress and prosperity.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
It was very interesting, particularly the Eric Adams case. Now, Rod Blagojevich has been a Trump ally for a while now. His sentence was actually commuted during Trump's first term. Eric Adams has also been indicted on corruption charges in New York City and since then has been making sort of Trump-friendly noises about things like immigration enforcement.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
And in fact, in instructing these charges to be dropped, there was nothing about the charges being unfair or ill-conceived. It was all about needing the mayor of New York City to help deliver on Trump's agenda, particularly when it came to immigration.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
That's right. And we also had this week the newly confirmed Attorney General Pam Bondi announcing that the Justice Department is actually suing multiple states, accusing them of not having properly enforced immigration law.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
Hey, Noah, thank you so much for your question. I think this is something that has a lot of people in Washington puzzled because it has been a consistent theme of Trump's remarks starting after the election. But it was not something that he talked about at all during the campaign. So it sort of came out of left field in terms of delivering on campaign promises, right?
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
Here he campaigned on primarily, you know, immigration and inflation. But as soon as he wins the election, he's talking about, well, I want to get Greenland. I want to turn— It's very ambitious. And so I think conceptually that is where it is coming from, is this idea of American ambition.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
You know, at some of Trump's rallies, particularly towards the end of the campaign, he had these signs that said, dream big again. And he does have this idea that America has become too sort of cramped and pessimistic, that we don't think about possibilities in a big way.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
We don't think about a country that could, you know, reach for the moon and stars, plant the flag on Mars, as he said in his inaugural speech. In some ways, he is very serious about all of these things, right? Not only has the former Gulf of Mexico been officially renamed on all the government maps
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
Google Maps and Apple Maps. But this week, reporters for the Associated Press were repeatedly kicked out of events at the White House because that news service has not gone along with this change and has not started using Gulf of America in its news reports.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
Yeah, and we've all been learning a lot about how these changes get made and who's in charge of them and who gets to say what the name is. On the other hand, with something like saying that we're going to take over Gaza and turn it into the Riviera of the Middle East, no one is quite sure what Trump means by this and how serious he is. And there was a quite uncomfortable moment.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
in the Oval Office with the King of Jordan this week. You know, Trump saying these things and saying that Jordan is going to accept large numbers of Palestinians, it puts him in a very uncomfortable spot. Jordan has already accepted huge amounts of Palestinian refugees. And Trump proposing something like this has the potential to destabilize the entire Middle East.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
But we now see, you know, Arab governments coming to the table proposing different solutions. And so some of the intent of seemingly crazy ideas like this may be simply to shake things up and get people talking in a way they haven't been talking in the past about ways to solve, you know, an intractable problem.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
That has been, as Trump said, you know, leaving a lot of people in dire misery for generations now. And no one seems to be proposing any solutions that could actually sort of break that stalemate and solve the problem on behalf of the Israeli and Palestinian peoples.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
It was such an incredible visual, wasn't it? I mean, to have Elon Musk sort of towering over the president and answering questions almost on his behalf, it really sort of visually summarized the way in which he does seem to have become, in a lot of people's minds, a sort of co-president, someone with... you know, the power befitting a world leader.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
And to have, you know, his cute little son sort of rampaging around the room as if he owned the place, it's sort of as if both of them owned the place.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
Can I ask you something about the Twitter example, though? Because, yes, he did a lot of the same things that we now see him doing with the government. But was it successful? I mean, isn't Twitter now a smaller, less profitable company than it was when he bought it?
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
Yeah, I mean, he seems to be everywhere. And Washington is still sort of stunned by how ubiquitous he is and how much wide-ranging personal latitude he seems to have been given to just roam around the White House doing stuff. On the other hand, we don't really know what power he has because his role is so poorly defined and may be reined in by some of these court decisions. So...
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
What do you think Elon Musk wants out of this? Like, what do you view as his motivation here?
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
I think, you know, in Washington, there's a bit of cynicism and skepticism about it. You know, every few years we get people come here saying, I have this dramatically better idea for how the whole thing can be run, and then they take a look at the actual system and realize... Like, yeah, you can find a thing here or there that maybe you wouldn't have authorized.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
But these government efficiency, you know, blue ribbon panels and congressional committees and so on have been looking to root out waste, fraud and abuse for decades now. And they generally do not find that you can dramatically reduce the size of the federal government if you want it to keep doing the same things.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
We've seen already some Republicans quietly trying to refund some of the programs that they've seen getting destroyed because their constituents' interests are at stake. For example, there's a food program that buys American farm products and uses them for food aid overseas. Some Republicans in the Senate are trying to resurrect that because it was killed in the elimination of USAID.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
So I think the idea that Musk is going to have a radical and lasting effect on the structure or the competence of the federal government, I would say people in D.C. are a bit skeptical about that just because many have tried. And it doesn't tend to be quite as easy as they think it's going to be.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
Yeah, you know, I think everybody sort of understands the idea of, you know, taking a whack at some of these entrenched bureaucracies. I think where you get a lot of concern is in the parts of the government that see themselves as sort of zero fail, so to speak, right? I mean, where you can't afford a mistake.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
In something like national security, you can't just take down all of our defenses, wait for a terrorist attack to happen, and then say, oops, that's where we should have put a patch. So I think there is a lot of concern in various... Areas of the federal government that feel like they can't afford to have a mistake that puts people's lives and livelihoods at risk.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
And that's how you find out that actually we did need that function of the government to be operating and fully staffed.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
You know, there's been a lot of talk and commentary about the potential for a constitutional crisis if the administration does not respect judicial decisions, if they decide to simply ignore something that a court has told them to do. Vance has tweeted this. He has previously made comments to this effect. And you have Musk saying, you know, questioning the legitimacy of these courts to rule.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
So what I found the most striking was that when Trump was asked this question, he repeatedly said, we will respect the judge's decisions, we'll appeal, and we think we'll win eventually.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
And I think a lot of sort of constitutional scholars breathe a sigh of relief at that just because the potential consequences are quite serious for our democracy.
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
I think a lot of people come to Trump and they're completely dependent on him, you know, for power or the appearance of power and so on. And so Trump can just fire those people and then they're left with nothing. Elon, you know, as Tim has been saying, not only did Elon provide hundreds of millions of dollars to help Trump get elected, but he's bringing his own staff to this effort to, you
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Trump 2.0: The Musk-Trump Bromance
he has his own platform in X and his ability to control the narrative in a way that I think Trump finds familiar and impressive as well. So it is hard to imagine, you know, an amicable divorce just because their interests are so bound up together at this point.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
It told me that he is determined to see through these incredibly disruptive changes that he's unleashed, no matter what the cost to his party, to his own political prospects. And he is convinced that we are going to come out better on the other side once we get through it.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
Thanks so much, Nolan, for your question. It's a great observation, and it's certainly one that I've heard from a lot of what you might call traditional or Reaganite Republicans over the last several years. They look at what Trump is doing as a takeover of the party by the isolationists. And Trump has really articulated that. We see, you know, J.D.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
Vance, when he was in the Senate, sort of led a rising generation of younger conservatives who had a very different view of America's role on the world stage.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
So, you know, I think certainly many people in Europe and other places looked at that Trump meeting with Zelensky a week ago and said, this is it. The transatlantic alliance is over. The America that was a trustworthy partner for European allies and North American allies and NATO is no more. And it's just never coming back. Now, I would say to the China point,
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
part of the justification that you hear for all of this from some Trump allies is that the point of cozying up to Russia is to rebalance against China. That if America is going to effectively counter China in this new world order, We have to split Russia off from them, and that's part of the point of some of the more pro-Putin expressions coming from Trump.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
But it is absolutely a massive reorganization of the world order as it was previously conceived. Andrew, what do you think about this?
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
Oh my gosh, Kate, I can't even tell you how excited I am about this. We might get a government shutdown. I don't actually, obviously, I'm not for or against a government shutdown. But it's always exciting times on Capitol Hill when they're trying to keep the government open, which is perpetually difficult. And the deadline for government funding is one week from today on Friday, March 14th.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
So if they don't pass a new government funding bill by then, the government will shut down, at least in part. And where we stand right now is nobody has any idea how they're going to do this. There's kind of some negotiations going on with Democrats. There's a potential short-term bill. There's a potential long-term bill.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
And there's the potential that they even do this on a party line basis, which would be relatively unusual. But it's all very up in the air.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
The goal was really to explain why all of this is good and necessary, right? Why he is winning. Why all of the things he's done add up to a better future, a new golden age, as he likes to put it. Why all of this disruption has a purpose and is going to lead to better things and is already putting victories on the board.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
Yes and no. I mean, certainly presidents are always trying to justify their actions. I would say that there's a few things that are different about Trump than a quote-unquote normal president at this stage, right? I think a normal president has much more of a bipartisan honeymoon and spends much more time trying to extend olive branches to the other side to explain why the things that he is doing—
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
should be broadly acceptable to Republicans and Democrats. Trump actually began the speech by saying, Democrats hate me and they're not going to clap for anything I do. So it was almost like a, first of all, screw you. And so that's one difference. I think also just the level of disruption and that being a feature, not a bug, right? Trump is very proud of how disruptive his agenda is.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
And, you know, as he put it, there's going to be an adjustment period to some of the ways he's trying to reorder the economy with his tariffs, that there will be some short-term pain. Sort of a refreshing honesty there, honestly, because presidents don't usually like to admit that.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
Hey, Andrew. So, Andrew, what is the White House's takeaway from this speech? What did they want going into it and how do they think it went?
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
The tariffs themselves are not necessarily popular, but it was certainly very clear that this was going to be a part of his economic prescription. And there's a lot of evidence in the polls that the American public is very much in this wait-and-see moment. They are...
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
giving the president the benefit of the doubt to implement his agenda and see where things land, you know, markets render verdicts much more quickly. And we do see the market expressing a lot of doubt about where this is all headed. But you certainly cannot say that Trump is not doing exactly what he said he would do. He, if anything, promised more tariffs than he has done so far.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
And he promised, I think, on an even more macro level to bring major change to the way everything works, right? To change the way the federal government functions, to change the way the American economy functions, to change— the entire world order and rearrange our alliances. And he has set all of that in motion, and it is very destabilizing, and a lot of people don't like it.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
But you cannot say that he didn't promise to do all of those things. And part of what I think he was communicating in the speech was, this is all working, just give it a little bit of time to play out, and we're going to get to a better place.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
You know, it was a defiant speech, an unapologetic speech, a long speech, and a speech that I think gave us a real window into how Trump is seeing his very disruptive first several weeks in the White House in his second term.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
Yeah, I think the unstated sort of tension in the tariff policy that Andrew's talking about is we can't tell if the point of the tariffs is to have the tariffs or to not have the tariffs, right? Because if what you're trying to do is extract concessions, that means that after threatening the tariffs, you have to not do the tariffs, right?
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
Once they've given you what you want, they don't get tariffed as a reward for that. On the other hand, if what you're trying to do is rebalance the entire world economy and reshore American manufacturing, First of all, you have to actually do the tariffs and keep them on, right, in order to create that incentive. And second of all, that does drive prices up. That does make things more expensive.
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
The reason companies have outsourced all this manufacturing is because it is cheaper to make the things in other places. Now, I think the administration would say they are doing various other things to make that more cost effective for these companies, right?
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
That by, say, deregulation, relaxing labor laws, making energy inputs less expensive, for example, they can bring down the cost at the same time as they're incentivizing that reshoring. But it's all very complicated. And as Andrew said, it takes a long time. And especially when you have this unstable business environment, right?
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
It's hard to convince companies that this is something they can make long-term investments in. So a lot of turbulence right now and a lot of uncertainty about sort of what the end goal is. And I don't think that Trump's speech really demystified any of that. Would you agree with that, Andrew?
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Trump 2.0: ‘Just Getting Started’
You know, being in the room for the speech, it was fascinating to observe. The Democratic reaction really, I think, epitomized how sort of lost and in disarray the party is at this point because you could see the different approaches being taken by different members, and they just have not figured out a sort of cohesive, coordinated, much less effective way to express their opposition to Trump.