Alex Ward
Appearances
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
The Biden administration's whole view was the U.S. provides Ukraine support militarily, economically, and will only consider negotiations when the Ukrainians are ready. The Trump administration has a very different view. Their view is now is the time to have negotiations because Ukraine can't win, which is a fair argument to make.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
But the question now is as the negotiations go is does Putin actually want to negotiate? Will the Ukrainians agree to whatever might be on the table? And will the U.S. just cut a deal that in theory stops the fighting and call it as a win but leaving the wounds to fester in Eastern Europe?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
I mean, actually, in some ways, if you think about it, the position is quite similar, right? I mean, the Biden administration didn't want Ukraine and NATO. Trump doesn't want Ukraine and NATO. The Biden administration didn't think Ukraine could necessarily win the war. The Trump administration doesn't think Ukraine can win the war.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
And the Biden administration thought this war would end with a negotiated settlement. And the Trump administration believes it's going to end with a negotiated settlement. So there actually isn't a massive difference. The big one—and this is a big one—is that the Biden administration said— No deal about Ukraine without Ukraine.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
There will only be negotiations when the Ukrainians say they are ready. And Trump is clearly saying the opposite, right? We're going to start these talks now, whether Ukraine wants to or not. And there are talks literally happening without Ukraine. So that's a big shift. But in terms of the grand architecture, there's actually a lot more similarity than differences between Biden and Trump.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
I mean, it's certainly shocking, right? I mean, we have known that Trump tends to occasionally listen to parrot Kremlin talking points, and he was on a long phone call with Vladimir Putin, so it's very possible that a lot of this literally came from that conversation. But, I mean, this was quite the escalation. It is certainly the harshest comments by any U.S.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
official, and of course it's coming from the president, since the all-out invasion began three years ago.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
I mean, yeah, right. One of the critiques of the Biden team was, hey, you guys are saying this is going to be a negotiated settlement and you're not negotiating. So maybe there should be at least some back channel or some clear effort, even if it doesn't work, even if it takes a long time, like be caught trying to end the war in a peaceful way that might actually give Ukraine an advantage.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Now, Trump is basically doing what the critics said, right? Start the negotiation. See what is in the realm of the possible. The problem here is that there is no clear indication that Putin wants to deal for real. And there's no clear indication that Trump is willing to stick out this negotiation until Ukraine kind of comes out more on top than not in what the final outcome will be.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Yeah, if the war ended right now, then Russia will have effectively taken 20% of Ukraine's territory and there will be no security guarantees of, you know, what could happen in the future, say, if Russia rearms, which European intelligence indicates could happen in about five years. And the overlying question to all of this is...
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Does Trump desire – what does he desire more, a really good outcome in the negotiations in the war or some sort of mega – or some sort of deal where the U.S. and Russia can become friends again? My instinct and so far it seems he cares more about the U.S.-Russia relationship improving than he does about a good quote-unquote outcome in the Ukraine war.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
And those two are quite literally like fighting in parallel.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Well, a little bit of backstory. So we interviewed J.D. Vance in Paris, you know, a couple of days, the day before the speech, excuse me, in which we were given a copy and we read it and we were able to ask him questions about it. And it was very clear that he went in with the intention of
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
to shock and with the intention to basically send a signal of, hey, Europe, you know, the biggest issue we have right now is we, the United States, provide you a lot of security and you Europeans are basically like letting illegal immigrants in and censoring right wing speech. And that doesn't feel like a fair trade.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Usually that speech in Munich is just like, you know, Yes, the U.S. and Europe agree to work together and, you know, we wish you'd spend more, but otherwise we'll be fine and we'll find some solution in Ukraine. Like, it was a purposeful decision not to do that.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
And to be in the room, you know, I was expecting the bombshell and I was trying to tell people, like, you need to be ready for what's to come. And people in the room were not ready. And you had, like, German ministers screaming no. You had, by the end of the conference, one of the Munich security leaders cry and walk off stage. Yeah.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
I mean, this was a massive signal to Europe that, like, the U.S. is not who you thought it was. It's not your friend anymore. All the evidence Europeans have is the U.S. is not the friend of Europe that it used to be and is far more antagonistic than it used to be.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
And so I think this conference, which is supposed to kind of be about, you know, where to from here on Ukraine, ended up becoming something broader about where to from here for the transatlantic alliance writ large.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
I mean, I think the loudest voices are those who are freaked out, right? Hey, maybe the U.S. isn't a reliable ally anymore. You know, they might be selling Ukraine up a river here. This is a problem. And now we in Europe need to actually like start reorienting our foreign policy in a way or away from the United States. We relied on the U.S. security for so much.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
We spent on a bunch of other things, you know, like social welfare programs, et cetera. And we've let our militaries decay. And now we're in this moment where the U.S. has been warning us to spend more. And now, you know, effectively, this is shock therapy.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
that would be the Trump administration's argument, and there are a lot of Americans that would sort of agree with it, and frankly, there are now Europeans who are like, this is a bit on us.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
I mean, it's hard to know. We're only a month in, but I think it's very clear that the United States are no longer, as of this moment, following the tenets of that post-World War II order, right, where it's now tariffs are good, You know, we don't necessarily have to support a democracy. Allies are not necessarily allies. They're takers, not sort of force multipliers.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
This is a wholesale change in the way the U.S. has sort of done business. And so, you know, if this were to continue, right, politics aren't linear. Things can change. But if this were to continue— the U.S. will be a wildly different global actor. And that not only just changes the way the U.S. does things, but also changes how our allies negotiate and our allies act and our adversaries act.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
And it leads to a whole different order. And what's fascinating here is like basically for the last 70 or so years, You sort of knew that one of the variables in the world, the United States, was a constant, right? Everything else moved around it. Now one of the major variables in world politics is how the U.S. is going to act.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Oh, I have so many thoughts on this. Okay. I'd love to hear them. Okay, first of all, in Trump 1.0, I thought what was fascinating is their main sort of theory of the case was, hey, sovereignty. Every country gets to do what it wants. I'm sort of going off of Molly's point here. Now it's very different, right? Vance goes into Germany and says, hey, Germans, do this.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Yeah, that's right. Now it's very much listen to what us, the United States, wants, but it's kind of a more MAGA, like they're trying to remake the world in the MAGA image, which is anathema to the sovereignty idea. So that's one.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
Two, to be fair to the Trump administration, there is like a sort of grand strategic idea to the working with Russia here, and that is to pull it away from China, right? One of the things that they fault the Biden administration for doing was by defending Ukraine so much and by hitting Russia so hard that it effectively forced Russia into China's hands.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Shaking Up Europe
And so by sort of appealing to Russia and offering its incentives to improve relations with the U.S., it might actually pull Russia away from China.