"A little disturbance," "a period of transition," "a detox period." These are all phrases that President Trump and his administration have used to describe the economy, as the stock market has plunged in response to one tariff announcement after another.Trump is adamant that his tariffs will ultimately bring revenue, jobs and factories to the U.S.But economist Matt Slaughter, dean of the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College, is skeptical. He thinks Trump's strategy is a recipe for long-term economic pain, and that a recession is getting more likely by the day.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Email us at [email protected] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
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On the campaign trail back in 2024, then-candidate Donald Trump made big promises for the economy.
The next Trump economic boom will begin on November 5th, 2024. It's going to be a boom like no other.
And he had a special message to investors.
You better hope I win because otherwise you're going to be in 1929 territory in my opinion.
Trump rode that economic message to a decisive victory in November. And on the heels of that victory, there were in fact some positive signs in the stock market. Maybe not a boom, but certainly a big bump. The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and Nasdaq composites all closed at record highs the day after the election.
The market's gone through the roof. Enthusiasm's doubled. It's doubled in the last short while. And I watched a liberal commentator say, you know, whether you like him or not, there seems to be a beautiful light shining over our country and even over the world.
Fast forward to this week, and that beautiful light seems to have dimmed. The S&P 500 closed in correction territory Thursday, down 10 percent from its recent high. As we record, it has bounced back some, but it still looks like a fourth straight losing week. And Trump has struck a different tone. Here he is on Fox News last weekend.
Are you expecting a recession this year?
No. I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing.
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