This week, Justin Trudeau said he would step down as prime minister of Canada — a stunning downfall for a man who was once seen as a global icon of progressive politics.Matina Stevis-Gridneff, the Canada bureau chief for The New York Times, explains the forces that led to Trudeau’s collapse, and discusses the populist leader who could replace him.Guest: Matina Stevis-Gridneff, the Canada bureau chief for The New York Times.Background reading: A timeline of Justin Trudeau’s rise and fall.Here are four possible contenders to succeed Mr. Trudeau.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Chapter 1: What led to Justin Trudeau's resignation?
I mean, I know what you mean, Natalie, but honestly, he resigned, but I really don't think it was much of a choice. Yes, he had been around for a really long time. It's almost kind of hard to remember a time when he wasn't Canadian prime minister, but If you've been following Canadian politics, you would know this was a really long time coming and for many Canadians, well overdue.
He had been under tremendous pressure from within his party to step down, and the public had made it abundantly clear that they were no longer supporting him. His popularity was at historic lows, and eventually the growing calls from within his party for him to step down showed him the exit.
Well, OK, so tell me, how did he get to that point where he really didn't have a choice but to do what he did?
I mean, broadly speaking, the arc of Justin Trudeau's narrative is one of rapid and spectacular rise and slow and steady decline. And really, that rise kind of almost started from his birth. He was born while his father was in his first term of being prime minister of Canada, his late father, Pierre Trudeau.
And Justin Trudeau is born in the spotlight and raised in the trappings of Canadian political power. But when he decides himself as a young man to enter politics, running for a member of parliament in the late 2000s with the Liberal Party, his father's party, he's sort of seen as this wimp or kind of weak from a character perspective.
So despite his background, he's definitely not automatically commanding the respect of the political establishment in Canada.
It is now time for your main event. Please welcome Justin Trudeau.
And one of the first things I think he did to dispel that notion was that he literally participated in a charity boxing match against a very serious conservative politician who had a black belt in karate.
Trudeau. Trudeau walking in. He's got a determined look on his face.
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Chapter 2: How did Trudeau rise to power?
The global press is fawning over him, from the broadsheets, serious papers to the glossy women's magazines. Vogue declares him one of the unconventional hotties of the year. It's really a phenomenon. And I think he was seen by a lot of people as a sort of successor to the Obama progressive dream. Remember, this is the tail end of the second Obama presidency.
And here's this younger guy in Canada who seems to stand for sort of the same principles, the same values, and have that same sort of sunny, hopeful outlook.
Right. It really does take you back to this era where that brand of progressive politics was just in. And Justin Trudeau is a global poster boy for those ideals.
Absolutely. He declares himself a feminist. He also pursues policies that we identify with progressive politics, such as climate change-related policies, reconciliation with Indigenous communities in Canada. and a very pro-refugee stance in the middle of the Syrian civil war.
Right. And then I remember Trump gets elected the next year, and Trudeau really kind of takes on this role as a counterweight to him and his approach to immigration writ large.
Absolutely. The world projects on him expectations of being the antithesis of Trump. And Trudeau really leans into the idea that he's the opposite of Trump. In fact, he takes the opportunity to showcase that straight off the bat. Soon after Donald Trump is inaugurated, he announces a major policy known as the Muslim ban.
And in response to that, Trudeau goes to what was then still known as Twitter. and says, to those fleeing persecution, terror, and war, Canadians will welcome you regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength. Hashtag welcome to Canada. Is there a more anti-Trump message than that in that moment? I don't think so.
I remember at the time, for liberals in the United States, you know, he was this, you know, ideal leader. I mean, I remember there was, like, talk of how they were all going to move to Canada.
Yeah, totally. It was a whole thing. And, you know, he really relished that reputation. And it had staying power on the global stage. But at home, his star started to dim around that time.
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Chapter 3: What were Trudeau's major policy failures?
He believes, for example, in the deregulation of the economy, getting the government out of the way of people's lives, of businesses cutting red tape. Same things that we're hearing from conservatives in other parts of the world. But Mr. Poliev is also someone who has been very smart about harvesting this moment of anti-progressive politics that are really rising right now.
Some people might call it anti-woke. And he has been able to make that part of his brand.
The prime minister has no business in decisions that should rest with provinces and parents. So my message to Justin Trudeau is butt out and let provinces run schools and let parents raise kids.
And his promise to Canadians is to frankly be the opposite of Justin Trudeau.
This is the consequence of Trudeau NDP policies and Canadians across the country, but especially right here in the South Okanagan, are demanding common sense, which is what I represent.
It sounds like he's someone who may be more potentially aligned with Trump than Trudeau, right?
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Chapter 4: How did the pandemic affect Trudeau's popularity?
Chapter 5: What was the impact of the Freedom Convoy?
Okay, so tell me about him, this potential new leader.
After nine years of this prime minister, everything is broken. 25% of Canadians are now living in poverty. 2 million lined up at food banks. 38% more people are homeless. Housing costs have doubled. It wasn't like this before this prime minister, and it won't be like this after he's gone.
So Pierre Poilier presents as a pretty mainstream populist 21st century right-wing leader.
Capping spending, cutting waste to bring down inflation and interest rates by removing bureaucracy to build more affordable homes.
And his message tends to be short, pithy. He loves slogans like, axe the tax, stop the crime. He endorses traditional family values. He believes in the nuclear family and so on. And I think a lot of his messaging is pithy. fairly textbook conservative.
He believes, for example, in the deregulation of the economy, getting the government out of the way of people's lives, of businesses cutting red tape. Same things that we're hearing from conservatives in other parts of the world. But Mr. Poliev is also someone who has been very smart about harvesting this moment of anti-progressive politics that are really rising right now.
Some people might call it anti-woke. And he has been able to make that part of his brand.
The prime minister has no business in decisions that should rest with provinces and parents. So my message to Justin Trudeau is butt out and let provinces run schools and let parents raise kids.
And his promise to Canadians is to frankly be the opposite of Justin Trudeau.
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Chapter 6: How did Trudeau's immigration policy backfire?
I sort of think of Paulieva and Trump as ideological cousins. I think there's a lot of overlap in some of the core traditional conservative ideas that both leaders espouse. And those are, again, quite textbook. They're not particularly fresh or new. I think, too, that Mr. Paulieva is very smart about using social media in his favor.
Of course, this is a moment with Elon Musk and X that is playing in Mr. Paulieva's favor, and he really knows how to use that. He has been a strong communicator. Experts say the strongest communicator Justin Trudeau had ever had to face, and Justin Trudeau was considered a very strong communicator. And so, yes, there are several similarities with Trump.
Nonetheless, Mr. Poliev is also very Canadian. You will hear him talk about really curbing the immigration program that Mr. Trudeau ushered in, which backfired. But you will never really hear him say things that are profoundly anti-immigrant. And so there are still many elements of Mr. Polyar that are, you know, unique to this country and unique to Canadian conservatism, I think.
So, I mean, the results of these elections are not a foregone conclusion by any stretch, but it sounds like if Polyev takes the reins of government in Canada, Trump would be facing a very different situation in Canada than the one that he had when he first came to office.
I mean, we're talking about a potential, as you said, ideological cousin versus what he had in Trudeau, which was someone who was opposed to him ideologically.
I agree. I mean, it will definitely be different. We don't have enough information right now to know what Poli ever plans to do when it comes to actually sitting down with Donald Trump. And I would add here that just from observation that. Political affiliation does not necessarily mean that you get a good deal from Donald Trump.
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Chapter 7: What is the future of Canada's political landscape?
So much of what transpires when leaders meet with Donald Trump, trying to advance their country's agenda, comes down to tactics and personal chemistry. And this is a personal chemistry that's completely untested, as opposed, for example, to the Trudeau-Trump chemistry, which we watched play out for several years. And it's not just about getting along, right?
Canada and the United States are each other's closest allies and biggest trading partners. And Mr. Trump has beef with Canada. He has Canada in his crosshairs. He has talked about wanting to close the trade surplus that Canada has over the United States. He wants Canada to do a better job protecting the joint border between the two countries.
And he has very importantly threatened to slap a 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods imported into the United States, a tariff that would crush the Canadian economy and send it into a recession. So. These are very serious issues that the new leader of Canada will need to negotiate over with Mr. Trump.
And yes, potentially being ideological cousins could be an advantage for Mr. Polievre if he is that leader. But it's not a foregone conclusion that the two men would see eye to eye. It would be a new relationship that would have to be built up and tested.
Matina, just reflecting on the larger story you've been telling us, and you alluded to this earlier, the fact that there has been this larger anti-incumbency movement across the globe, specifically against liberal incumbents. In many countries, you have this mix of anti-immigrant sentiment and economic frustrations that have really spelled trouble for progressive political parties.
And I'm wondering what you think the fall of Trudeau signifies for the world.
I mean, Natalie, I think, first of all, the end of the Trudeau era here in Canada certainly fits that trend that you've described, the rise of voters against incumbents, particularly liberal governments that were in power during the pandemic period.
People around the world, we've seen it in the United States and in Europe, have become deeply disenchanted with the way progressive politicians manage the economic fallout, as well as other elements and facets of their lives in the course of the last few years, and are just voting them out one by one. And Justin Trudeau certainly fits that pattern.
And I think there is a sort of, you know, poetry to it, not to be all romantic in a tragic way. But, you know, this is an era of the growing popularity of progressive politics, the vision and the hope and the dream around it that Trudeau was an icon for. And that era is very clearly coming to an end, a crushing end.
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