Kylie Robison
Appearances
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
That's funny because I wrote about this. I said, OpenAI is no longer a research lab. It is a tech company like everyone else. And I had researchers reach out to me and disagree. My take is that it's like academics versus like a product manager at Meta. they're extremely different people.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
So a company that was started to do deep research on AI filled with a lot of academics and incredibly smart people who just wanted to do that research, they're not exactly looking to work fast, break things, build products. That's not exactly why a lot of them went there. And they might deem the market pressures to build these products on these powerful models, they might deem that as unsafe.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
It is just a philosophical debate. It is that tribalism every day. And some people are like, I don't care. I think it's really cool that we can build products for everyone to use on these LLMs that we have spent millions of dollars and so much time building. So I think the people who are leaving because they deem OpenAI not safe are It's a debate.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
And unfortunately, OpenAI is not very transparent in their processes. So it's hard to deem from an outsider's point of view. We have to rely on these people leaving and saying it's not safe.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
There's a whole lot of benchmarks. And I got to write an article about reward hacking, which was my favorite thing, which basically the AI lying to you. Really fun stuff. So yeah, they do a whole bunch of benchmarks. They do a whole bunch of safety tests. My opinion here, what I'm gleaning from this is that safety is moving slow and thoughtfully versus moving fast to launch things.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Yeah, and I think that you can see why these researchers are so sensitive to a change in equilibrium and why they're like, okay, opening AI is not safe. We've got to go to anthropic, which takes these dangers much more seriously. And I think the broader public doesn't exactly see these dangers because if you can't count the number of R's in strawberry, how is it going to destroy the world?
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
But a certain subset of these people take it very seriously. But no, I don't know how we get there.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
I think that it's important to sell a utopia, and a dystopia is harder to sell. That was my take reading it, because I have yet to see this from Anthropic since they were born.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
that we're going to build this utopia it's been mostly we need to slow down and that doomer sort of personality that they've adopted i think it it really just has to come down to market pressures they have to compete they have to be as cool as sam altman it's the drama the intrigue the building utopia it's where you'd want to put your money it's where you might want to work
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Well, researchers cost millions and millions of dollars at this point because they are in such small supply. And there was a story not that long ago that Mark Zuckerberg was emailing researchers directly to recruit them. So there's a lot at stake for researchers. So they're getting a lot of money. That's a huge chunk. And yes, GPUs, cloud compute, it costs money.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
so much money to train these models. I had likened this just in conversation about this to like imagine you're leaving your AC on all the time at home and then thousand X that. You already know what your bill looks like when you leave your AC on too long. Just it is so expensive to cool these GPUs, to run them all day long.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
And then people are also using your products, which are run on large language models that run on these computes. So that's expensive as well. It's just a very, very expensive operation. And it eats up money because they're not making much money.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
I wrote about this in terms of agents. That's what everyone's building. Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, they're all building agents. So that's kind of what we've been talking about, this autonomous AI that can do your work for you, that can book travel for you, etc. I think that this is their next thing that they believe works.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
will be able to show off that these large language models are useful and can also charge for it. Do I actually think that they're going to be profitable anytime soon? No, I don't think that's coming anytime soon.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
No, I think that you're just running out of money. I think if they want to build the next frontier models, like Dario says this himself, that we are reaching models that are going to take $100 billion to train. Like they just need that money to train the next frontier models. And also these VCs really want to see the next GPT-5, right?
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
So they need to rush quickly to get this compute, to spend this money, and they're just burning through it.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Yes, I think so. I wouldn't say that I'm so well-versed in funding and finance, but I think I can do normal math. And if they're losing billions of dollars hand over fist and they're only raising $6.6 billion... you're not making a profit, you're kind of screwed, you're going to run out of money.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
I don't think any of these companies are going to go under, but the smallest companies that don't have a Microsoft or an Amazon to fund them, I think that those are the companies that are going to suffer. We've already seen that with Inflection, for example.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
No, I do believe that Altman and Dario actually believe that this is how AI is going to change the world. I do believe that the researchers who spend day in, day out building this technology believe that's the future. I think that the timing of Dario's blog, it's weird. It's just weird. It's like, okay. Well, obviously, this seems tied to the fact that you need to raise a lot of money.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
And XAI just raised the most that anyone's ever raised. And then OpenAI raises the most that anyone's ever raised. Everyone's trying to build the next biggest model, and it costs a lot of money. And saying, we're going to be really slow and chill, and that doesn't really make people excited to invest. And the devil's advocate position is, does he really need to do that?
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Does he need to write a blog to get people to invest? It's already so buzzy. And I just come back to the competition. Competition has never gotten stiffer.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Worth it? I mean, there's, again, so nascent, so many ways to be argued. And I think that's what I find the hardest part. Part about covering AI is that it is just so easy to argue about the smallest things all day. They believe that you have to completely change the structure, which we build LLMs to reach AGI. And yes, that this is not the path to take to reach it.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Very smart people like Jan believe that, no, you can't just horsepower your way through building AGI. I think my answer is I would like to see. I would like to see proof. I am just asking every day for proof and we don't have it.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Show me digital God. Show me a path to digital God. No, it's just like, there's no path. It's just like, let's just keep going this way and it should be fine.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
For us and for the listeners, I think that this is also really unclear to the people who are building it and investing in it. Because if you look at OpenAI's mission statement on their website, it has a big pink box that says, anything you invest should be considered a donation. So it is clear that investors were like, ah, phooey. It'll be fine.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
And now they have to change from a nonprofit to a for-profit. because they're like actually i don't want to just donate i want some money back so that's where we're at and they're figuring it out we have to take another quick break we'll be right back
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
So OpenAI needed money because Elon Musk was a co-founder of OpenAI and said, actually, I am not into this anymore. Bye. And he took all his money with him. And they really needed money. And Microsoft saved them. And now OpenAI is in an awkward position where they really need Microsoft to survive because that's who provides the bulk of their compute.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
They have an exclusive cloud partnership with them. So now we have gotten to a point where, oh my gosh, Microsoft does not have enough compute. So they are not happy about that. Microsoft made one concession in this exclusive agreement to let them make a partnership with Oracle to get some more compute, which was rare. But yes. Altman was ousted last year.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
And I think that really pissed off Satya. I think he was having a nice Thanksgiving break. And I think that he had to go on CNBC and defend OpenAI. And he's like, we are just too dependent on this company for the future, what I believe is the future of technology. So we've got to create a backup plan. And I think that's where Inflection comes in.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
And that's what some of the New York Times article gets into. Mustafa Suleiman, who was the CEO of Inflection, is now the CEO of AI at Microsoft. I just think it's so messy. They both want to build the future and they both depend on each other.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
They are completely dependent on these cloud companies, and they're realizing that. And they're trying to figure out how to be slightly less dependent. I mean, Sam Altman is apparently going around the world trying to pitch his own multi-trillion dollar chip startup so he can own this portion of his business. I think they're scared that they're so dependent on Microsoft.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
I don't think it is as testy. Not that I've heard, not that's been reported. It seems like Anthropic is moving a lot slower. It's a lot less dramatic. There's not the boardroom coups or, you know, the splashy releases ahead of Google I.O.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Right, exactly. So no, I don't think it's as testy, but I think Anthropica seems to be really pulling their punches. They're moving a lot more carefully and trying to avoid stepping in mess.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
I was thinking about this for the people who want to argue with me about how I don't truly believe in AGI and such. I think if these are your messiahs and you don't also just notice them as businessmen, to think that this is not full of tactical decisions, like these blog posts are not tactically written with tons of factors in mind is just... Ludicrous.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
I think it'd be a lot easier to focus on those technology pressures when you didn't have the business pressures because you need the money, you need the talent to move your technology forward. And these people are like throwing elbows for this kind of thing. Again, like Zuckerberg writing emails, XAI holding recruiting parties in San Francisco and inviting OpenAI employees.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
It's testy out here and you have to do anything to fight your way in.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
This is so funny. Back to that – episode on tribalism I was talking about that I'd listened to a podcast about. Their advice against tribalism was like, you should probably just take people at their word and believe that they believe what they're saying. And I thought that that's a great way to look at it.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
I do believe that they think that they're building AGI and going to change the world and such. In terms of trust and I think it is my job to be skeptical. I don't think I can read a blog and tell our readers, they are definitely going to do this and just ignore all of the other factors at play here. I think that they have to earn that trust.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
I think that this is sort of a pitch we have seen for years. Look at all of the times tech executives have promised to cure death, to get us to...
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
mars to like to fix all of these ailments and here we still are with all of these ailments so i think that they just have to earn it and i think that's okay they can't just demand today that we all trust them because it's kind of a damaged reputation in silicon valley it's okay you're gonna have to earn it there's two ways to keep folks in line one is ferocious market competition
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
In terms of SB 1047, which is that regulation in California, that was a really difficult one because California is filled with these technologists who do not exactly want strict regulation right out of the gate. And Governor Gavin Newsom was lobbied pretty hard against patenting. this and people were threatening to leave.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
And so much of the California economy does rely on these big spenders coming here and building their technology. So in terms of California regulation, I think that's going to be an uphill battle. I think it's going to rely on federal regulation. And I think that remains to be seen if they'll get that right. I don't know if they have a history of getting that right.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
And I think, you know, I wasn't a journalist when Section 230 was passed, but I think that has caused a lot of unease, that we should pass something now to control this before things get worse and we have no control over the technology that runs our society. I get that unease.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Well, I think that we're trying to get our hands on this slippery fish. It's so nascent. I don't know if the people who are building this and the people who are regulating this know exactly what to do to fix something that is so new. It feels like trying to regulate Facebook when it was still a Harvard project. social media platform.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
It's just hard to figure out exactly how this will change the world. And I'm not sure promising utopia is going to help. I don't know if promising dystopia is going to help. We just don't know for sure how this is going to shake out.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
It's so funny because there's this line in Silicon Valley, the TV show that I quote in my article is like, I don't know about you guys, but I don't want to live in a world where someone makes the world a better place than we do. Yeah. That's where we're at right now. Why should we be forced to trust these big tech executives?
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Why does it have to be in the hands of just a handful of big tech executives? Have they really proven that they can be trusted with Digital God?
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Two things. I don't think anyone was going to choose a safer Facebook. They just want the one that's, as you said, is in front of them, the one that works better, the one they enjoy using. So I think that's how that's going to shake out. I don't think the normal person, my siblings are going to care which one's safer. Who decides if they're safe?
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
I really do like the idea of them having to talk to the government and be completely and fully transparent about what their models are capable of and what those tests are doing. Because I find pause that they're able to be like, no, it's fine. Like we tested it. It's totally chill. They do have some third party researchers, but it's not as transparent as it could be.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
So, yeah, I think regulation would be a good place to start of the government having their own researchers and be like, OK, we are going to test this model for safety. We're not just going to rely on these people to test themselves. And that's how you prove if this is safe, if these are people we can trust.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
I think that both are going to be really keen on getting reasoning models out there to the public with different speeds. They want something that can code faster, that can reason for you reliably. I got a demo where getting back to agents is... I got a demo from OpenAI where they called a fake dessert shop to place an order for them, but it did get some things wrong.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
That's the future that these companies are seeing is autonomous agents that can reason. So I think that's what we're going to continue seeing. I was promised by OpenAI that we'll start seeing those agents in the wild as soon as early 2025. So we'll see. All right.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
That's a great way to start. Do I think Digital God will be cool?
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
What's the vibe check on Digital God? I think... You know, are humans good and chill? It's just a philosophical debate at this point. I hope so. I don't think so.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
It is very tribal and it's something I've experienced covering it, which, you know, the side that's building it increasingly is saying, listen, we are building something that is going to transform the world. It is going to, as one CEO put it, it could spread democracy, it could cure diseases, etc. not just like diseases, but PTSD and anxiety, really nebulous things.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
They truly believe this and they are pushing hard on this narrative, whereas a whole other side is saying that this is all a scam and that they shouldn't be trusted. So both sides seem to be completely gnawing at each other.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Definitely. And I am really sympathetic to both sides. I was just listening to another podcast about tribalism, which is why it's at the front of my mind, which is both sides want the same thing, which is for the betterment of humanity. And one side thinks that AI is going to make humanity worse. And one side thinks it's going to be made better.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
So it was about 14,000 words where Dario says, you know, I know that this is very fabulous and crazy to say, but I'm going to say it anyways, because I think it's worth saying that we could shrink about 100 years of scientific breakthroughs and progress in five to 10 years with AGI. He doesn't like to call it AGI. He thinks it's like sort of a crazy term, which is artificial general intelligence.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
He likes to call it powerful AI. It can cure PTSD. It can spread democracy. It can do all of these crazy things just if humans weren't so limited in terms of compute. And yeah, it's really selling. This is the future we can have if we work hard enough, if we achieve AGI, if we achieve it in a chill way.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Yes. I believe DeepMind's first mission was build AGI. OpenAI's mission, build AGI. Anthropic, build AGI. They have stated very clearly that's what they want to build. I don't know if they would agree with our joke about digital god, but it is more fun to say.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Yeah, they all want to build general intelligence because they see that as a way to change the world in many different ways rather than only changing one sector. They could generally change the entire world with general intelligence.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
It's, again, 14,000 words. He really sells this in a way that's these tiny breakthroughs just, you know, for science. He had quoted this person who said, you know, it's all these tiny breakthroughs that get you to larger breakthroughs. So it can make us more efficient in terms of our processes. And that can be said for large-scale data.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
data analytics for finance, for medicine, for a lot of different sectors. So what they see is a model that can understand and analyze and parse through large, large, large amounts of data in ways humans can't. And they see all the ways that can change the efficiencies of certain sectors in which it can get us humans to have more breakthroughs. But not only that,
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
They are hoping that they can do this autonomously all the time. So I think he says a million of the smartest people in a data center is how he views this is like cities of people, but they're just AI working all the time on these issues. That's how they view it.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
What they like to say is that when it comes to really complex issues, it will work all day, hours and hours, thinking through this issue. And then it will come back for clarification. Oh, I see. So that's the caveat. It's like, no, it's not going to control everything, but it will control those rote tasks individually. And then come back to you and be like, okay, I thought about this.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Can you answer these questions? What do you think about this? Think of it as a partner in that way. But they ultimately, yeah, they don't want you to have to check up on it all the time. That's true.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
A partner to what they claim are some of the world's smartest people, which are people working on cancer, people working on autonomous vehicles themselves, which I can get into. Yeah.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Yeah, I read the entire Amadei blog and I felt as starry-eyed and cool this utopia might be, like, where are we to getting there? Like, what is the answers to actually getting there? And I have the job of explaining to readers who are extremely skeptical because they're like, it can't even count the letter of Arsene Strawberry. What are you talking about?
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
I don't feel like they're doing a great job at convincing us that the tools that we have today are much different, that we won't just need humans. I just don't see a coherent path other than, don't worry, we're building utopia. Don't worry about it. Just give us money.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
We can never know for certain unless they say out loud, this is why I wrote this. And I think, you know, it's sort of my job to look at this and not just take it at face value. Because when I read it, I thought, well, Anthropic is reportedly looking for funding right now. And the competition has never been more fiercely Everyone is leaving OpenAI to build an even safer AI company every day.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
Mira Marotti, their CTO, is reportedly making her own company. And then another VP of research there might also be making their own company. And that's just like in the last month. So you have to compete for money. You have to compete for talent. You have to compete for compute to a lesser extent. But money and talent are really where it's at right now. And safety is not like the sexiest pitch.
Decoder with Nilay Patel
The AI arms race to build digital god
I do believe... that these AI executives believe what they're saying, that they're going to build utopia. I think why Dario released his blog at the time that he did, which was out of step for Anthropic, he says at the top, we don't usually do this. I think it does have a lot to do with competition and market pressures and funding.