Jake
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
01 is a game changer. Yes. It's the first real chain of thought production system that I think we've seen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
in order to give the answer. This is called chain of thought. Right. And this is the underlying mega model that sits on top of the LLMs. And the mega model, effectively, the chain of thought approach is the model asks itself the question, how should I answer this question? Right. And then it comes up with an answer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And then it says, now, based on that, what are the steps I should take to answer the question? So the model keeps asking itself questions related to the structure of the question that you ask. And then it comes up with a series of steps that it can then call the LLM to do to fill in the blanks, link them all together and come up with the answer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
It's the same way that a human train of thought works. And it really is the kind of, ultimate evolution of what a lot of people have said these systems need to become, which is a much more, call it intuitive approach to answering questions rather than just predictive text based on the single statement you made. And it really is changing the game and everyone is going to chase this and follow this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
It is the new paradigm for how these AI kind of systems will work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
This is like the photo in Back to the Future.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
By the way, it's not just call centers. I had a conversation with, I'm on the board of a company with the CEO the other day. And he was like, well, we're gonna hire an analyst that's gonna sit between our kind of retail sales operations and figure out what's working to drive marketing decisions. And I'm like, no, you're not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Like, I really think that that would be a mistake because today you can use O1 and describe, just feed it the data and describe the analysis you wanna get out of that data. And within a few minutes, and I've now done this probably a dozen times in the last week with different projects internally at my company,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
it gives you the entire answer that an analyst would have taken days to put together for you. And if you think about what an analyst's job has been historically is they take data and then they manipulate it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And the big evolution in software over the last decade and a half has been tools that give that analyst leverage to do that data manipulation more quickly, like Tableau and R and all sorts of different toolkits that are out there. But now you don't even need the analyst because the analyst is the chain of thought. It's the prompting from the model.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And it's completely going to change how knowledge work is done. Everyone that owns a function no longer needs an analyst. The analyst is the model that's sitting on the computer in front of you right now. And you tell it what you want. And not days later, but minutes later, you get your answer. It's completely revolutionary in...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
ad hoc knowledge work as well as kind of this repetitive structured knowledge work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
That's all reportedly out of some article, right? That's not like confirmed or anything.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
There was some article that reported this, right? None of us have firsthand.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
There's probably also an aspect of this that we can't predict what is going to work with respect to data structure. So right now, all of... all of the tooling for AI is on the front end.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And we haven't yet unleashed AI on the back end, which is if you told the AI, here's all the data ingest I'm going to be doing from all these different points in my business, figure out what you want to do with all that data. The AI will eventually come up with its own data structure and data system. No, that's happening. That will look nothing like... No, no, that's already happening. Right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And so that's nothing like what we have... today, in the same vein that we don't understand how the translation works in an LLM, we don't understand how a lot of the function works, a lot of the data structure and data architecture, we won't understand clearly, because it's going to be obfuscated by the model driving the development.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So maybe it's being done, right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
You can't raise $6 billion without probably meeting with a few dozen firms. And some number of junior people in those few dozen firms are having a conversation or two with reporters. So you can kind of see how it gets out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
This is the Rogan clip? No, this is Congress. Watch this. This is what is in Congress.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
No.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And do you think this could become an absolutely zero idea? I have no idea what they're doing. I don't know how they're converting a nonprofit to a for profit. None of us have the details on this. There's there may be significant tax implications, payments they need to make. I don't think any of us know. I certainly don't. I don't know if there's actually a real benefit here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
If there is, I'm sure everyone would do it. No one's doing it. So there's probably a reason why it's difficult. I don't know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Did Elon actually put in $50? Did he put in $50 million?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
The argument that I heard was that Elon was given the opportunity to invest along with Reid, along with Vinod. And he declined to participate in the for-profit investing side that everyone else participated in.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, I think it ties in a lot to the AI discussion because I think we're really witnessing this big shift from this big transition in computing, probably the biggest transition since mobile. You know, we moved from mainframes to desktop computers. Everyone had kind of this computer on their desktop, but you used a mouse and a keyboard to control it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Yeah. A bunch of comments asking. Jake, why do you call it Alex Jones?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
To mobile, where you had a keyboard and clicking and touching on the screen to do things on it. And now to what I would call this kind of ambient computing method. And, you know, I think the big difference is control and response. In directed computing, you're kind of telling the computer what to do. You're controlling it. You're using your mouse or your keyboard to go to this website.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So you type in a website address. Then you click on the thing that you want to click on. And you kind of keep doing a series of work to get the computer to go access the information that you ultimately want to achieve your objective. But with ambient computing, you can more kind of cleanly state your objective without this kind of directive process. You can say, hey, I...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I want to have dinner in New York next Thursday at a Michelin star restaurant at 5.30. Book me something and it's done. And I think that there are kind of five core things that are needed for this to work, both in control and response. It's voice control, gesture control, and eye control are kind of the control pieces that replace, you know, mice and clicking and touching and keyboards.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And then response is audio and kind of integrated visual. which is the idea of the goggles. Voice control works. Have you guys used the OpenAI voice control system lately? I mean, it is really incredible. I had my earphones in and I was like doing this exercise. I was trying to learn something. So I told OpenAI to start quizzing me on this thing. And I just did a 30 minute walk.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And while I was walking, it was asking me quiz questions and I would answer it and tell me I was right or wrong. It was really this incredible dialogue experience. So I think the voice controls there I don't know if you guys have used Apple Vision Pro, but gesture control is here today. You can do single finger movements with Apple Vision Pro. It triggers actions. And eye control is incredible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
You look at the letters you want to have kind of spelled out or you look at the thing you want to activate and it does it. So all of the control systems for this ambient computing are there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And then the AI enables this kind of audio response where it speaks to you and the big breakthrough that's needed that I don't think we're quite there yet, but maybe Zuck is highlighting that we're almost there and Apple Vision Pro feels like it's almost there, except it's big and bulky and expensive is integrated visual where the ambient visual interface is always there and you can kind of engage with it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So there's this big change. I don't think that mobile handsets are gonna be around in 10 years. I don't think we're gonna have this like phone in our pocket that we're like, pressing buttons on and touching and telling it where on the browser to go to, the browser interface is gonna go away.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I think so much of how computing is done, how we integrate with data in the world and how the computer ultimately fetches that data and does stuff with it for us is gonna completely change to this ambient model.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
So I'm pretty excited about this evolution, but I think that what we're seeing with Zuck, what we saw with Apple Vision Pro and all of the OpenAI demos, they all kind of converge on this very incredible shift in computing. that will kind of become this ambient system that exists everywhere all the time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And I know folks have kind of mentioned this in the past, but I think we're really seeing it kind of all come together now with these five key things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I saw Joe Rogan 25 years ago doing stand-up. I have a photo with him at the club. It was like a small club in San Francisco and we hung out with him afterwards. He was just like a nobody back in the day. He was like a stand-up guy, right? Now he's a media uber star.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
You need some visual interface. I think the question is, where is the visual interface? Is it in the wall?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, when you're asking, I want to watch Chamath on Rogan. I don't just want to hear, I want to see. When I want to visualize stuff, I want to visualize it. I want to look at the food I'm buying online. I want to look at pictures of the restaurant I'm going to go to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Fear Factor, that's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
If you think about like, so take the constraints on, I don't need a keyboard because I'm not gonna be typing stuff. I don't need a normal browser interface. You could see a device come out that's almost like smaller than the palm of your hand that gives you enough of the visuals and all it is is a screen with maybe two buttons on the side. And it's all audio driven.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I feel like that's where he blew up. UFC, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
You put a headset in and you're basically just talking or using gesture or looking at it to kind of describe where you want things to go. And it can create an entirely new computing interface because AI does all of these incredible things with predictive text, with gesture control, with eye control, and with audio control.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And then it can just give you what you want on a screen and all you're getting is a simple interface. So Chamath, you may be right. It might be a big watch or a handheld thing that's much smaller than an iPhone. And just all it is is a screen with nothing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I think social fabric's more affected by people staring at their phones all the time. You sit on a bus, you sit at a restaurant, you go to dinner with someone and they're staring at their phone. Like spouses, friends, we all deal with it where you feel like you're not getting attention from the person that you're interfacing with in the real world because they're so connected to the phone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
If we can disconnect the phone, but still take away this kind of addictive feedback loop system, but still give you this computing ability in a more ambient way that allows you to remain engaged in the physical world. I think everyone would feel a lot better about it. You could say it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And that's the opportunity. If you guys play with Apple Vision Pro, have any of you actually used it to any extent? No, I used it for a day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Right, which I get, but I do think that it has these tools in it, similar to the original Macintosh had these incredible graphics editors like MacPaint and all these things that people didn't get addicted to at the time, but they became this tool that completely revolutionized everything in computing later. and fonts and so on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
But like this, I think has these tools, Apple Vision Pro, with gesture control, and the keyboard and the eye control, those aspects of that device highlight where this could all go, which is this, these systems can kind of be driven without keyboards without typing, without like, you know, moving your finger around without clicking.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
You don't need to control the computer anymore. The computer now knows what you want. And then the computer can just go and do the work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
How is OpenAI worth $150 billion? Can anyone...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Look at the Apple Newton, dude. The Apple Newton is like perfect. Exactly, people forget about that. And then it turns out, hey, you throw away the stylus and you got an iPhone, right? And everything gets a million X better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Should we make the bull case and the bear case?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
99, 2000, that era.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Anyway, we're definitely on this path to ambient computing. I don't think this whole like, hey, you got to control a computer thing is anything my kids are going to be doing in 20 years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
It's the same thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
External stakeholders, yeah. So like the environment or society or whatever. But from all other kind of legal tax factors, it's the same as a C Corp.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, yeah, I think the market's definitely correcting itself. I think for years, as Chamath said, there was kind of this belief that if you went to college, there was, regardless of the college, there was this outcome where you would make enough money to justify the debt you're taking on. And I think folks have woken up to the fact that that's not reality.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Again, if there was a free market, remember, most people go to college with student loans and all student loans are funded by the federal government. So the cost of education has ballooned and the underwriting criteria necessary for this free market to work has been completely destroyed because of the federal spending in the student loan program.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
There's no discrimination between one school or another. You can go to Trump University Or you could go to Harvard, it doesn't matter, you still get a student loan, even if at the end of the process, you don't have a degree that's valuable. And so I think folks are now waking up to this fact and the market is correcting itself, which is good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I'll also say that I think that there's this premium with generally mass production and industrialization of the human touch. And what I mean is, if you think about, hey, you could go to the store and buy a bunch of cheap food off of the store shelves, you could buy a bunch of Hershey's chocolate bars.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Or you can go to a Swiss chocolate here in downtown San Francisco, pay $20 for a box of handmade chocolates, you'll pay that premium for that better product. Same with clothes, there's this big trend and kind of handmade clothes and high end luxury goods spoke artisanal Artisanal, handmade. And similarly, I think that there is a premium in human service, in the partnership with a human.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
It's not just about blue collar jobs. It's about having a waiter talk to you and serve you. If you go to a restaurant, instead of having a machine spit out the food to you, there's an experience associated with that that you'll pay a premium for. There's hundreds and hundreds of microbreweries in the United States that in aggregate outsell Budweiser and Miller and even Modelo today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And that's because they're handcrafted by local people and there's an artisan craftsmanship. So while technology and AI are going to completely reduce the cost of a lot of things and increase the production and productivity of those things... One of the complementary consequences of that is that there will be an emerging premium for human service.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And I think that there will be an absolute burgeoning and blossoming in the salaries and the availability and demand for human service in a lot of walks of life. Certainly there's all the work at home, the electricians and the plumbers and so on, but also fitness classes, food, personal service around tutoring and learning and developing oneself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
There's going to be an incredible blossoming, I think, in human service jobs, and they don't need to have a degree in poli sci to be performed. I think that there will be a lot of people that will be very happy in that world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, these are in-person human jobs. So if I want to do a fitness class, do I want to stare at the tonal?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I think that there's an aspect of... Look, it's like your Laura Piana. You talk about the story of Laura Piana. Where is the vicuña coming from? How's it made? Who's involved in it? Yes, look, you're... Oh, God. Look at those. Here he goes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
I could give you truffle flavoring out of a can, but you love the white truffles. You want to go to Italy. You want the storytelling. There's an aspect to it, right? Yes. And I think that there's an aspect of humanity that we pay a premium, that we do and will. Look, Etsy crushes. I don't know how much stuff you guys buy on Etsy. I love buying from Etsy. I love finding handmade stuff on Etsy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Patagonia.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
No, you don't. Do you really?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Handcrafted? Yeah, handmade. So I think that there's an aspect of this that in a lot of walks of life. I mean, I have so many jokes right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Have you guys taken music lessons lately? My kids do piano lessons, and so last year I started ducking in to do a 45-minute piano lesson with the piano teacher. There's just like a great aspect to paying for these services. It's fascinating you bring that up. Oh, here we go.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Did you see that interview with Bob Dylan? I don't know when it was, recently, about how... Oh, and Ed Bradley, that clip?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
About magic?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Let me just tell you something. I think there's going to be a big war. I think by the time this show airs, Israel's incursion into Lebanon is going to get bigger. It's going to escalate. And by next week, we could be in a full-blown multinational war in the Middle East.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And if I am, you know, a betting man, I would bet that the odds are, you know, more than 30, 40% that this happens before the election, that this conflict in the Middle East escalates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And here's the situation. I really hope you're wrong. If Israel incurs further into Lebanon going after Hezbollah, And Iran ends up getting involved in a more active way. Does Russia start to provide supplies to Iran like we are supplying to Ukraine today? Does this sort of bring everyone to a line?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Just to give you a sense of the scale of what Israel could then respond with, Iran has 600,000 active duty military, another 350,000 in reserve. They have dozens of ships, they have 19 submarines, they have a 600 kilometer range missile system.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Israel has 170,000 active duty and half a million reserve personnel, 15 warships, five submarines, potentially up to 400 nuclear weapons, including a very wide range of tactical sub one kiloton nuclear weapons, small payload. You could see that if Israel starts to feel incurred upon further, they could respond in a more aggressive way with what is by far and away
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
the most significantly stocked arsenal and military force in the Middle East. Again, we've talked about what are these other countries going to do? What is Jordan going to do in this situation? How are the Saudis going to respond? What is Russia going to do?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Well, you know, so just to give you a sense- It's insane.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Yeah. So the nuclear bombs that were set off during World War II, I just want to show you how crazy this is. Do you see that image on the left? that all the way over on the left, that's a bunker buster. You guys remember those from Afghanistan and the damage that those bunker buster bombs caused? Hiroshima is a 15 kiloton nuclear, and you can see the size of it there on the left.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
That's a zoom in of the image on the right. And the image on the right starts to show the biggest ever tested was Tsar Bomba by the Soviets. This was a 50 megaton bomb. It caused shockwaves that went around the earth three times. They could be felt as seismic shockwaves around the earth three times from this one detonation. Today, there are a lot of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
0.1 to one kiloton nuclear bombs that are kind of considered these tactical nuclear weapons that kind of fall closer to between the bunker buster and the Hiroshima. And that's really where a lot of folks get concerned that if Israel or Russia or others get cornered in a way, and there's no other tactical response that that is what then gets pulled out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Now, if someone detonates a 0.1 or one kiloton nuclear bomb, which is gonna look like a mega bunker buster, what is the other side and what's the world gonna respond with? That's how on the brink we are. And there's 12,000 nuclear weapons with an average payload of 100 kilotons around the world. The US has a large stockpile. Russia has the largest. Many of these are hair trigger alert systems.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
China has the third largest. And then Israel and India and so on. It is a very concerning situation because if anyone does get pushed to the brink that has a nuclear weapon and they pull out a tactical nuke, does that mean that game is on? And that's why I'm so nervous about where this all leads to if we can't decelerate. It's very scary because you can very quickly see this thing accelerate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
The bull case would be that the moat in the business with respect to model performance and infrastructure gets extended with the large amount of capital that they're raising. They aggressively deploy it. They are very strategic and tactical with respect to how they deploy that infrastructure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
The waltz into World War III. is what it should be called.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
to continue to improve model performance and as a result, continue to extend their advantage in both consumer and enterprise applications, the API tools and so on that they offer. And so they can maintain both kind of model and application performance leads that they have today. Across the board, I would say like the O1 model,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Their voice application, Sora has not been released publicly, but if it does, and it looks like what it's been demoed to be, it's certainly ahead of the pack. So there's a lot of aspects of of open AI today that kind of makes them a leader.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
And if they can deploy infrastructure to maintain that lead and not let Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and others catch up, then their ability to use that capital wisely keeps them ahead. And ultimately, as we all know, there's a multi-trillion dollar market to capture here, making lots of verticals, lots of applications, lots of products. So they could become a true kind of global player here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Plus the extension into computing, which I'm excited to talk about later when we get into this computing stuff.