President Trump has shifted U.S. policy regarding the war between Ukraine and Russia. On Tuesday, The U.S. and Russia met for peace talks — without Ukraine — with a goal to ending the conflict. What's behind the shift? This episode: political correspondent Sarah McCammon, White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez, and national security correspondent Greg Myre.The podcast is produced by Bria Suggs & Kelli Wessinger, and edited by Casey Morell. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
Chapter 1: What is the context of the U.S.-Russia peace talks on Ukraine?
And today on the show, the latest on efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Officials from the U.S. and Russia met today in Saudi Arabia in an effort to try and broker a deal. And Greg, that's where we will start. What do we know about these talks?
So they took place in Riyadh, the Saudi capital. And these are the most extensive, formal, diplomatic talks the U.S. and Russia have had since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost exactly three years ago in February of 2022. The U.S. was led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. And the most immediate issue on the agenda is trying to find a way to end the war in Ukraine.
But Rubio said there are even larger goals here and they include trying to normalize and stabilize the U.S.-Russia relationship. looking for ways to possibly improve economic and geopolitical ties. And Sarah, I can't emphasize enough, this is absolutely a 180-degree turn from what we've seen under the Biden administration.
And this is happening quickly, lots of moving parts, and it's really the first major foreign policy initiative in the Trump administration. And let's listen to what Secretary of State Rubio had to say.
Today is the first step of a long and difficult journey, but an important one. And President Trump is committed to bringing an end to this conflict, as he said when he campaigned for president. And he wants it to end in a way that's fair. He wants it to end in a way that's sustainable and enduring, not that leads to another conflict in two to three years.
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Chapter 2: Why were the peace talks held in Saudi Arabia?
That's not going to be easy to achieve, but he's the only one in the world that can begin that process. Donald Trump is the only leader in the world that could initiate that process. And today was the first step in that process.
And, you know, typically when we think about something like a summit to end a war, especially a European war, this would be in a place like Switzerland or Norway. So why Saudi Arabia?
Yeah, highly unusual. You would be looking or expecting it to be on some neutral ground or semi-neutral ground in Europe, especially when you're talking about the war in Ukraine. But, you know, President Trump just does things differently. And it looks like perhaps a couple issues at work here. We saw Vice President J.D. Vance
be sharply critical in a speech in Europe, of Europe, saying that it wasn't doing what it needed to do. So at one level, having this meeting in Saudi seems another jab at Europe, a message that European states don't need to be deeply involved. Again, a sharp contrast to the Biden administration, which built a coalition of 50 countries, mostly European, to assist Ukraine.
They gather monthly, either in person or virtually, to talk about or coordinate efforts on Ukraine.
I mean, Trump's made very clear of his interest in working with Saudi Arabia. All these discussions are likely in anticipation of a summit between Trump and Putin, which, you know, depending on who you talked with, could happen in weeks or months. But what's very, very clear is Trump is saying that such a summit would happen soon.
And Saudi Arabia for Trump is a, you know, a likely place considering that. how much of an emphasis Trump has put on working with Saudi Arabia, not only in situations like this, but also economically.
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Chapter 3: What are Trump's objectives in ending the Ukraine conflict?
Right. And Franco, one of the many things Donald Trump said when he was campaigning was that he would end this war within 24 hours of taking office. That, of course, didn't happen. But what is the White House's endgame here?
Absolutely. This was a campaign promise. I mean, what Trump wants to do is end the war. I think he wants to end it on terms that he sees fit. I mean, Trump is very, very transactional. But at the same time, I think what we're seeing is kind of clear sympathy for Russia and Putin. It was just over this weekend. Trump was speaking about Putin almost admiringly.
about Russia being this big machine, about how they defeated Hitler and Napoleon, but that supposedly they wanted to end the fighting. That said, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is arguing that Putin is basically pulling the wool over Trump's eyes.
And there's a lot of reason for those concerns, because as Zelensky says, and most analysts would say, look, the facts show that if there is a stop in the fighting, it will most likely only be temporary considering the facts over the last 10 years of Russia basically breaking its own agreements and returning to the battlefield, that it's only a temporary stoppage.
But Trump's goal is to stop it now and then see what happens later.
And of course, Franco, what you said is very much the fear of Ukraine, saying that the initial war began in 2014. It did halt, but it just allowed Russia to rearm and prepare for a much larger invasion later, which came in 2022. So this really is a great Ukrainian fear in the past, and it continues to be now. A European fear. Oh, absolutely.
And not only not only going back into Ukraine, but also expanding more into other countries, other European nations and even NATO countries. And of course, Trump has also talked about not being there for NATO, possibly even pulling out. So it is only gotten to be a bigger, bigger fear.
And we should note, I mean, this is a conversation about Ukraine that is happening without the participation of Ukraine.
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Chapter 4: How does Ukraine perceive the U.S.-Russia discussions?
And that was exactly the kind of phrase that the Biden administration would use, nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, that they would be there. And again, we've just seen this complete flipping of the way things are done with the Biden administration, working very closely with Ukraine to put pressure on Russia.
Now, the Trump administration is sort of working initially with Russia, and Ukraine feels very very much under pressure. We did hear Marco Rubio say no one is being sidelined. Ukraine will be included. But the Ukrainians are certainly not feeling that at the moment and are feeling very, very nervous.
When I talk to folks about this and whether Ukraine is being excluded, the answer is absolutely yes. But they also see that Ukraine There's only going to be a deal if Russia and the United States can get on the same page. Now, is the United States going to steamroll over Ukraine? Is it going to steamroll over Europe?
Eventually, the United States is going to have to bring in Zelensky, going to have to bring in Europe. Zelensky has made very clear that he is not going to take just agree to any kind of deal. But, you know, what kind of deal is this going to shape into and what options does Zelensky actually have? At this point, Russia has already won so much.
So many concessions have already been given to Russia. before negotiations have really even starting. And probably most of all is just elevating Putin to be at this big boy table, which is something that the Biden administration tried to kind of isolate him. And now he's back in the spotlight.
And without Zelensky there. All right. It's time for a break. When we come back, more on how U.S. policy toward Ukraine has shifted in the new administration. And welcome back. I want to talk about the shift in rhetoric from the Biden administration to the Trump administration when it comes to providing aid and military support for Ukraine. Vice President J.D.
Vance spoke at the Munich Security Conference last week. As Greg mentioned, I just want to play a bit of that.
Europe faces many challenges, but the crisis this continent faces right now, the crisis I believe we all face together, is one of our own making. If you're running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you. Nor, for that matter, is there anything that you can do for the American people who elected me and elected President Trump.
It was part of a larger broadside against what Vance characterized as Europe and European government's stifling of free speech. He suggested the U.S. would be less willing to help countries that were not aligning with his vision of promoting free expression. Now, Franco, this speech has raised alarm bells across Europe, as many took it as a further sign of the U.S. isolating itself.
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Chapter 5: What role does Zelensky play in the peace negotiations?
There's no question that the arena has changed. I would argue that Trump is not isolating the U.S. I would actually probably say it's kind of the opposite. And the people I speak to, it is the opposite, but it is not on the terms that that Europe wants or that Europe has been accustomed to, or even the United States has been accustomed to.
It's a new world order, as some say, you know, that does away with all these multinational organizations like the WHO. the Paris Climate Agreement. It does away with working in collaboration with like-minded allies. Instead, as one former diplomat told me, that Trump is clearly now using the tools of his adversaries and looking to kind of build the U.S. sphere of influence much in ways that U.S.
adversaries are doing, whether it's China or in the case of our conversation today, Russia.
Right. I mean, there's Trump's friendliness with Russia and on the same token, distance from our traditional allies in Europe. What does it mean for Ukraine's security if the U.S. suddenly decides to back off of its support for Ukraine, as we know some Republicans have called for for a long time?
Well, if that happens, then Ukraine simply couldn't carry on fighting the way it's done for the past three years. Ukraine is outnumbered and outgunned. It's been losing territory over the past year. The U.S. military support has allowed Ukraine to limit those Russian gains. And there's still a bit of the U.S. assistance that's in the pipeline from a big package that was approved last year.
But when that runs out, which will be fairly soon, Ukraine could lose its biggest single source of foreign military aid. Europe is helping both with military and humanitarian assistance, but Ukraine would be in a very tough spot. It would have to consider how long it could carry on the fight.
And would it have to make bigger concessions and make them sooner rather than risk a rapidly weakening military position that just keeps deteriorating?
You know, Franco, I was so struck by what you said a moment ago about people in tears in the room as Vice President Vance was speaking. I mean, this is a historic shift. This is a departure from really the international order that's been in place since the end of World War II, shaped largely by the United States. I mean, where do either of you see this going?
Yeah, I mean, I think there's no question that we are seeing an absolute shifting of that world order that you're saying. And the U.S. is a huge part of it and is in many ways leading that. Trump has clearly not only with what's going on in Ukraine, but if you look at Greenland and talking about potentially using troops to take over Greenland, talking about taking over the Panama Canal,
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