Manufacturing orders are down, stocks are down, and mortgage rates are up. But Trump and his family are wealthier than they've ever been. He's got his Ponzi-like crypto scheme, his meme coin, and a boatload of big money types showing up at Mar-a-Lago trying to curry favors from him for some cold, hard cash. Meanwhile, Trump is play-acting like he has a strong hand, but he's begging China to make a deal. Plus, the administration is defunding science and our world-renowned medical centers to buy crypto. And the Abrego Garcia kidnapping and imprisonment has touched a nerve in surprising ways. Stephanie Ruhle joins Tim Miller. show notes Chuck Grassley getting grilled at town hall over Abrego Garcia WSJ story on Elon's 'legion of babies,' and their mothers (behind firewall) Mediaite summary of WSJ piece Bluesky post on the fake gold medallions in the Oval Office Bloomberg on United Airlines having two profit scenarios because of the trade war (gifted) *The Bulwark Podcast is sponsored by BetterHelp
Chapter 1: What does Tim Miller introduce in this episode?
So Sarah JVL and I break that threat assessment down on the Next Level podcast. Go subscribe to that. But on today's show, she's already making me giggle. She's the host of the 11th Hour on MSNBC. She also is a senior business correspondent for NBC News. She was formerly managing director at Deutsche Bank. And she's doing I Dream of Jeannie dance moves right now. It's Stephanie Ruhl.
What is up, girl?
Hey, hey, hey. Yeah, all of those things are right, but today I'm just psyched to be here with you.
Mia Wallace, Pulp Fiction, or I Dream of Jeannie? What was the dance move there?
Just a little bit of me this morning. Just find and enjoy wherever we can.
Steph was, she has the show, as I mentioned, The 11th Hour, which is on 11 p.m. to midnight. which is a struggle for me. It's on Central Time, but she's doing it on Eastern Time. And then she was on the Today Show. What were you doing?
I was talking about summer ahead, summer travel tips. And, you know, it's so funny, even in sort of like the most basic safe place that you're talking, people are looking at the tariff situation. They're looking at the international situation and they're worried and they should be.
I saw an article right now that 900,000 fewer Canadians came across the border in March than of March last year. So maybe for some people, that'll mean more hotel rooms open in hot Canadian travel spots like the UP and Michigan. But I don't know if that's great for the locals.
What's happening on a global scale, as soon as you see people just stopping travel... It's just another window into what I think is the biggest problem here. And it's this crisis of confidence and what we've spent decades and decades and decades building our relationship and our trust around the world, right?
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Chapter 2: What insights does Stephanie Ruhle share about the economy?
Globalization, while it was really tough for parts of this country, for parts of our economy, globalization is also why, in large part, we as a globe have prospered. And the fact that we're seeing bits of it and chunks of it break down, that's the most worrisome thing.
It is. We're going to break it all down. And she's going to be a little punchy. We're on like four hours of sleep maybe for Steph. So I want to start here, which is how much difference a fiscal quarter makes. Because I re-listened this morning to the podcast we did together where you were bucking me up. I was in a dark place. It was, I think, like two days after the inauguration, maybe three.
It's funny to listen to it because it's like the environment is so different from now. Like we were mostly talking about like this vibe shift among the business world and how they're getting on board with Trump. And they're like, yeah, we have our doubts, but at least we can say pussy again. And we're going to get our tax cuts and our regulation cuts and our stock number is going to go up.
And we're kind of, you know, navigating that and why that was and why it happened. And here we are three months later. We have a total reverse vibe shift. They have fucked around. They found out quicker than anybody. maybe in human history. And I'm wondering what you're hearing with your people.
The absurdity about the vibe shift is this. Wall Street, investors' core responsibility is is to assess risk. That's what you do in finance. You figure out what is the risk ahead and how do I place a bet? How do I make an investment based on that?
And what we saw after the inauguration was this enthusiasm around a vibe that we're going to get no regulation, that we're going to get tax cuts and yeah. you know, DEI and all that nonsense that was strangling our productivity and profitability. We're going to rip through that. Well, that's what they made the priority.
And they ignored the promises and pledges and point of view that Donald Trump has had for decades and decades. And now we're seeing it play out. The funniest thing I think we're seeing right now is just this longing, this missing of a Steve Mnuchin, a Gary Cohn, a Jared Kushner, who in the first administration held Donald Trump in.
And the thing that concerns me so much right now, Tim, I can tell you, I speak to investors here, abroad, business leaders here and abroad. Right now, I cannot find one single smart, serious person, voice of influence, even those who like the general idea of Trump's tariffs, not one single person who is on board or happy with the execution and the rollout
of what has happened over the last two weeks, save two groups. There are two people that are okay with it. And those are people that are deep in Trump's inner circle who are convincing themselves if they keep French braiding his hair and telling him he's the greatest master super leader ever, then they'll be able to gently push back on him.
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Chapter 3: How is Trump affecting Wall Street and business confidence?
Put that over there. And then the other group of people who are business people who are specifically on the take, who are getting some sort of carve outs, whether because of an exemption, whether they own a private prison, whether they're in crypto, where they're in a space where they are making so much money because of what Trump's doing, they're willing to ignore all the rest that he's doing.
And that is when you say, oh, when people talk about American oligarchy, that's right there. So those two categories of people on the inner circle who believe they can convince them otherwise or those who are personally banking so much money, they're just going to build a moat around their castle and say, damn the rest of us.
You know what's kind of funny is, again, back in January when we were talking, we had these masters of the universe that were all around him. Sundar was there and Elon and Tim Cook and Zuckerberg, and they were all thinking they were going to get theirs. and you know, and they're all still fine, but all of their industries, there's some shaky stuff happening.
I love how you're like the hot industries. Now the people that are feeling good are private prisons and crypto. That's, that's a first world economy. That's really what you want to base a first world economy on imprisoning people and fake money.
Yes. A hundred percent. And when you, when you think about what over the weekend, when, when, when we thought, you know, suddenly, uh, Apple and, um, These other tech businesses are going to get the exemption. When I talk to other business people, immediately they're like, damn, who are our lobbyists? How do we get to Mar-a-Lago?
And as confusing as Trump's messaging has been, he's had one consistent message to him. I've got my views, but I'm flexible. Come on down to Mar-a-Lago and maybe we can make a deal. And that's what it is. Right. We even I've talked about this before. The five million dollar one on one meeting you can have with him. The one on one candlelight dinner you can go to at Mar-a-Lago.
And each of those people in the tech universe are vying to stay closer and closer to him. You know, people have said, like, why does Jeff Bezos even want to own The Washington Post? He's not interested in it. Jeff Bezos owning the Washington Post is the most valuable thing he can do to stay close to Trump.
Because as much as Trump likes lining his pockets with money, which tons of people are willing to do for him, he cares so, so much about the press. He cares so, so much about what the Washington Post has to say about him. And Jeff Bezos having any ability or an outsized ability to influence that media outlet, that's a huge value to Trump. And we see Trump is about what is in it.
How does this advantage him? And that's how he makes decisions.
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Chapter 4: What concerns do investors have regarding Trump's policies?
And like, again, three months later. J.D. Vance is like, no, we're still into the antitrust stuff. And you thought you got rid of Lena Kahn, but we're going to start looking into this stuff. All that's moving forward. And so, again, I just wonder, these guys, like...
He's got, you know what though, Tim? Shame on them. Totally. Especially Wall Street guys. They knew him. So when we've had to watch Howard Lutnick say, let Trump be the business guy that he is, art of the deal. Yeah, that's what he's doing. And any person who works at any investment bank in New York knows exactly the business guy that he was, right?
When he was in business, when he was in business, Jimmy Morgan didn't do business with him. Goldman Sachs didn't do business with him. Morgan Stanley didn't. My bank, Deutsche Bank, compared to those banks is like the dog track of banks. They were willing to do business with him and find a contractor, find a counterparty. He never stood up to his deals, right? Never.
I remember years ago talking to a hedge fund manager who he did some kind of deal with Trump. I don't remember what it was. And the day after the deal closed, I remember telling you the story. Trump said, let's say this guy was making 50 million and Trump was making 10. Trump said, can we reverse those numbers for the New York Post? And the guy's like, what?
All Trump cared about was the headline. And the other guy was like, yeah, as long as I'm getting the money, as long as you're getting diluted. And most of the companies that Trump ran, at the end of the day, he was diluted down to only owning 2% and having his name on the door. But he didn't actually own any of them. It was all about bluster and show.
And so now here you have a person, the leader of the free world, you know, negotiating these deals. Just yesterday, he said, like, we want China to make a deal with us. If you're the person with the strong hand, why are you begging the other one to come to the table? And this is what has people so worried. Can they trust what he's saying?
For Wall Street, you can actually make a ton of money in volatile markets, right? You can buy and sell no sweat. In a recession, you can bet against the market. But Tim, if you ran any sort of business, how on earth would you plan? Today, United Airlines put forward guidance, two separate lanes. Here's what guidance would look like if we face the tariffs.
Here's what it would look like if we won't. Because under what Trump is doing, we actually have a strong, stable economy. It's why things have moved so much, because they're like, if only he would just get back in the ring, we could be OK. But there's no sign of him doing that.
Do you remember the differences in the United thing? Because I think that's another thing that people who do not like watch the finance news, it hasn't sunk in. Like we're coming up on earnings, right? And so like a lot of big businesses are going to have to do something like that, right? And I think that the outlook is going to get really kind of dire here in the next month.
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Chapter 5: What is the significance of the Abrego Garcia case?
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Is there any self-reflection that maybe they made a bad bet on this one? Maybe it was safer to go with the black lady or are we not quite, we need a little more pain before we get there.
So I will say I don't have those conversations by design, right? If I'm speaking to sources, I want to learn everything I can. And me saying, well, didn't you learn your lesson is a waste of time. Something that I've actually heard in the last two days was something I hadn't thought about, but I'm hearing more and more guys talk about. is Trump's leaning toward authoritarianism.
A huge investor called me just yesterday, just based on these rumors that the White House has denied about them potentially having a military parade. You know, if we were to have a military parade in honor of our president, if that were to happen, that should rock us to our core because that's what Kim Jong-un does, right? That's what we see in dictatorships. Pair that
with ignoring a Supreme Court ruling. Lots of folks out there would say, oh my goodness, just get rid of those illegal immigrants. They're all criminals. We make a few mistakes, so be it. I'm glad with what Trump is doing. There's a group of people who say that. But there is a group of surprising people in the investor class who are paying super close attention to this Maryland man
who has been detained, who's in an El Salvador prison. And the reason they're so concerned about it is because Trump is openly and brazenly ignoring a Supreme Court ruling. And one of the main reasons that people invest in America and believe in America. A core tenant of American exceptionalism is that we follow the rule of law. We have three separate but equal branches of government.
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Chapter 6: How are mortgage rates impacting potential homebuyers?
So they had this idea, well, the stock market will go down and we are going to see people rush to buy treasuries. So people rush to buy treasuries. That means the price goes up and the yield goes down. But what's happening, in my opinion, is the scariest thing. Normally, stocks go down and you see people rush to buy treasuries. They're not. They're not rushing to buy treasuries.
Because they're not trusting the U.S. dollar. They're not trusting the U.S. Exactly. They're going for the gold, not Olympic style. They're going for the gold because it's the only trusted asset. So for people who aren't even invested in the markets, you're hazing over. You're right. When those rates go up, that means your credit card is going to cost more to pay. That's your mortgage.
any sort of loan. So tariffs are going to make everything cost more. And now what it costs you to borrow is going up as well. And that's a perfect storm. And the question will be, will Jay Powell and the Fed have to step in and buy bonds, which is crazy. That they should do that when the economy is so strong.
Oh, so that's the solution. Because lowering the rate wouldn't actually help the 30-year, but buying bonds might.
No, it's will the Fed come in and start buying up treasuries? Because as long as we're talking trade war, and I promise I won't get that nerdy, one of the problems is some of the largest holders... The people who own the most treasuries are other countries. China is one of the biggest holders of U.S. treasuries.
And if they decide to dump them or not show up for our next treasury auction, that's what a nasty trade war looks like. And they have the ability to do that. They've been quietly buying up and publicly buying up U.S. treasuries for years and years and years. And they've got us by the bond balls.
Another area that I wanted to focus on is the manufacturing industry. Your man Joe Weisenthal posted this yesterday. It was a chart that had the new orders for the New York Fed regional manufacturers, and they hit the lowest level in the history of the survey. So investment in manufacturing is way down.
That seems to be the opposite of what the stated goal was of the program, but what do you make of it?
In part, because it's ignoring the fact that even if you are in manufacturing, we have a global supply chain. Okay. So take autos for a second. It's not that we don't build cars here. We do. We efficiently build cars here.
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Chapter 7: What is the current state of the manufacturing industry?
America is an economic coiled spring. We should be growing at at least 4% annually and ideally 6.8% growth has been brutally suppressed since before I was born. So I hear these guys that thought Trump was going to be this springboard. for them to massive economic prosperity.
And what they're doing is slashing all the things that made America economically unique and powerful and great and investing in scams. They've turned us into the mattress on the floor of a crack house in three months. It's unbelievable.
That spring, the Statue of Liberty is now wrapped and tangled into that spring. And that goes right back to what he's doing with Harvard. Donald Trump and Stephen Miller love this fight with Harvard because they want to present this as their war against sort of liberalism and universities.
But where it's so misguided and where the American people should understand it, this is not about anti-Semitism.
And just the notion that they are taking money from the likes of Harvard and they want you to close your eyes and think that there's a professor somewhere smoking a pipe who's panicked that they're going to lose their tenure and they're not going to be able to go on a reading tour this summer. No. If you looked at the humanities budget at Harvard or Yale or any of these schools,
It's a rounding error. When Donald Trump pulls $2 billion from Harvard and threatens their tax exempt status, the only thing I want you to think about is Harvard's medical research. The work that they do for decades and decades, I'm going to get choked up thinking about it, and the millions of lives that it saves, right? Our medical research, the kind of research
that the government funds is the research that private industry won't because there's not going to be a vaccine right away and they can't turn it around and make money off of it.
But we've got people that are plagued with terminal diseases and illnesses that you've got our best in class, world renowned medical centers, researching and studying scientists who devote their lives to it, who could work, in private industry, but they don't.
And so this idea that we're pulling from Harvard, it's such an attack on us and so much misinformation that people don't understand that like, these aren't people at the Harvard Club or people like, you know, suddenly, you know, at Skull and Bones at Yale, like they'll be SOL. No, these are career researchers who are trying to save lives and they're going to be missing out.
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Chapter 8: Why is Trump the only one seemingly happy amid economic turmoil?
So just the idea that those are ungettable voters, I don't believe that's true.
I agree. Not ungettable. Winning the whole state of Iowa. But you never know. You got to be on the field to win, I guess, is the first piece of evidence for it.
Tim, let Donald Trump be every person with political aspirations model. Did anyone on planet Earth think he was going to be president once? Actually twice? No. Nobody. And so like this idea, it's not worth it. Don't try. Every vote counts. Try.
I agree with that.
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