The Bill Simmons Podcast
The State of Fantasy Football, 25 Best NBA Players, and Million-Dollar Picks With Danny Heifetz and Joe House
Fri, 08 Nov 2024
The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Danny Heifetz and Joe House for a fantasy football check-in after nine weeks, then discuss the surging Ravens offense, the rise of the running back, and the biggest fantasy disappointments (2:13). Afterward, they get into some stealth waiver wire and trade candidates and fantasy booking Bill Belichick's next coaching gig (26:23). House and Bill later run through their favorite games from the weekend's slate before making their Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 10 (53:16), Finally, they talk some NBA, including the Warriors' win over the Celtics, NBA awards odds, a check-in on their win total picks, and Bill's updated top 25 NBA players list (1:27:51). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Joe House and Danny Heifetz Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Chapter 1: What are the key fantasy football insights after nine weeks?
I mean, America should have been on it. All of the models should have been on it. Those two guys have been the best. And look at the numbers. There they are.
Well, maybe Derrick Henry should just be treated like LeBron at this point, where it's just like, just assume he's going to keep doing this until he gets hurt. You're better off betting on it happening versus it not happening. But if we're talking real disappointments.
Wir sprechen darüber, wie man jemanden verrückt macht, wie wir es in der Fantasie tun, auch wenn es alles Fake ist und es nicht die Fault der Jungs ist, dass wir sie gedraftet haben. Wenn du an Anthony Richardson hingewiesen wärst, was ich glaube, dass die Leute wirklich auf ihn verwendet haben, richtig?
Und sie sind so, ich habe keine Ahnung, ob er akkurat ist, er wird den Ball laufen, er ist Cam Newton. And that's a disaster. Now, you can audible at the quarterback position. You can't audible if you're spending $28 to $40 on DJ Moore. So I think he has to be up there. If you're talking about first team All-NBA fantasy football disappointments.
And then Travis Etienne is another one because he was somewhere in the 7 to 11 range for running backs. Maybe 12, I don't know. But he was like in that second tier range. He killed me in one of my leagues. He hasn't been good any week. And he's always got the red flag with him. You never know what's going on. He's on a shit team. Tank Bigsby kind of took a lot of his plays and his minutes.
And that one is just like a sunk cost, right?
Ich glaube, E.T.N. könnte die Antwort hier sein. Er ist nicht so berühmt oder so interessant wie Anthony Richardson. Aber du hast recht. Weißt du was? Wenn du Richardson hast, ist es schrecklich. Du bist wahrscheinlich am angstigsten an Anthony Richardson. Aber du kannst Bo Nix hinzufügen. E.T.N. hat... Ich denke, E.T.N.
ist der einzig frustrierendste Spieler der Fantasie, vielleicht die ganze Saison. Weil du ihn wahrscheinlich in der zweiten Runde genommen hast. Du hättest ihn vielleicht vorher genommen oder vielleicht... Du weißt, es muss sein, dass wir einen Wert über den Veränderung brauchen. Wir brauchen Angst über den Veränderung. Du siehst dich zurück in deinem Draft. Fantasie über... Ja.
Yeah, because you look back at the draft recap and you're like, oh, it went Derek Henry, Saquon, Kyron Williams, and then I got Travis Etienne. Like, that's the worst thing you can look back at and see. He's better when he's out, because then you play someone else. When you play Travis Etienne, he gets two and a half points. It's the worst possible thing. It's a farp.
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Chapter 4: Which Million-Dollar Picks are recommended for NFL Week 10?
Lass mich versuchen, den Waver Wire zu holen und die gute Defense dieses Wochenende zu stecken. But really, that to me, that would be my recommendation. If you insist on playing fantasy, that's one way to approach it.
Craig Horlbeck's greatest take of all time. You know, shameless plug here for the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Craig's best take ever is that prepping for fantasy football is a huge waste of time.
Es ist fast wie William Goldman's Nobody Knows Anything About Hollywood. Das ist wahrscheinlich wahr. Wir sehen es jedes Jahr, weil ich in einem Draft mit Brad, der mich letzte Woche verletzt hat, Crazy Brad in der South Draft, der neun Running Backs aus 18 Spielern in der Draft verletzt hat. Das war eine tolle Strategie. Ich glaube, er hat noch nie einen verletzt.
Und jetzt versucht jeder, seine Running Backs zu verletzen. Er sieht aus wie ein Genius, aber als er es machte, dachten wir, er wäre komplett verrückt, weil er verrückt ist.
I actually think, I swear to God, I actually think that that might be the best strategy in fantasy. You know why? Because when people do all these advanced statistic modeling and everything you could do with fantasy football, I actually think what people forget to include is the value of trades.
I think what people forget is that, oh, in theory, receivers are worth this and quarterbacks are worth this, running backs are worth this. But three or, let's say, four weeks into the season, when there are injuries and you start to get bye weeks, everyone in the world is like, I'll give you a receiver for a running back.
And no one wants to trade a running back for a receiver three weeks of the season. You take a little risk that someone gets hurt in week one or two, or you take a risk that you have a Zemir White who just immediately sucks.
But for the most part, if you make it three weeks, you can flip David Montgomery or Joe Mixon for someone who is drafted 30 spots higher if you wait three weeks, which if you look at it by the principles of any other form of real investing is like incredible. You really probably should just take 10 running backs and then just keep four and flip the other four and no two will get hurt.
Sie, I was ahead of my time back when quarterbacks, it was harder to find 10 of them when I was just drafting up quarterbacks. And you guys made fun of me for that. But there was one year where I had like five quarterbacks. And it was like, guess what? Anyone gets hurt, the road goes through me. But now it's like, you can freaking pick up Bo Nix for a dollar. And all of a sudden he's starting.
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Chapter 6: How does the Ravens offense shape up this season?
It is. It's Sirianni Schmuck Insurance. I can't say that ten times fast. Sirianni Schmuck Insurance. It's that. It's that. Because that dude is a stone cold schmuck. So you gotta have some way to get out of it. I mean, the Eagles teaser is a lock. You don't need to convince me any further on that leg of it.
Well, the best thing about this... Oh, Philly is now 7. That's great. The best thing about this is you can get it to a number that Sirianni can't screw up with. A dumb 2-point conversion. Going for 2 when he's up 17. All the weird shit he does. So we can get them down to 6. And then... I just, to me, the Cowboys are, I said this to Sal on Sunday night, it just feels like a 5-12, 4-13 team now.
I don't think there's any scenario for them to turn it around. I didn't think they were good to begin with. So that's one. And then the other one is Chargers-Titans. And I continue to think the Chargers are... Ja. Ja.
I did know that. And you know, one big element of that, and it'll feature in some of my plays on the Ringer Pregame Show on Sunday, is they are so deliberate with the football. They use up, on average, like... 31 Sekunden. Sie sind die Nummer 1 in der Liga, wenn es um die Spielzeit geht. Sie kontrollieren den Fluss des Spiels, was definitiv zu diesem... Es ist eine sehr gute Defense.
Ich könnte sechs Spieler nennen, aber das macht keinen Sinn. Es ist institutionell. Es ist Harbaugh und der Typ, den er aus Michigan gebracht hat. Und sie spielen nur diszipliniertes Fußball. Ich meine, das ist... The seven and a half down to one and a half against a Titans team where it seems like Will Levis is going to play? Wonderful.
Please. They've been crushing teams with bad QBs this year. Points they've given up. 10, 3, 20, 17, 16, 15, 8, and 10. If you're going to make a case for Tennessee, it would probably start with their defense is pretty good. Yeah, it is. The good defensive stats are there. I watched them last week. I thought they did a pretty good job with the Pats.
They are first on first downs, first against the pass, second against on third down. The Chargers, some of the stats are just phenomenal. I mean, they're in the top five in just about every relevant category. They're everything that's to run. I really like this Chargers team. And I think they're a little better than the good-bad team because... They have confidence now. They're physical.
They're getting some guys back. And their receivers have gotten better week after week after week. And you watch them and it's like Johnson, Josh Palmer,
mcconkey like they have guys that can actually get first downs and move the chains well you know what's happening in in over that same time continuum week after week after week justin herbert got healthy he i think i think he really was hurt i mean he he sat out chunks of games did he miss a full game i don't remember early in the season and his mobility is back and they are taking downfield shots
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