Surprise! The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to guess the win totals for every NFL team by division for the 2025-26 season, closing the show with Parent Corner! Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producers: Kyle Crichton and Chia Hao Tat Order Michelob ULTRA today, available on Doordash! ENJOY RESPONSIBLY © 2025 ANHEUSER-BUSCH, MICHELOB ULTRA® LIGHT BEER, ST. LOUIS, MO. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Chapter 1: What is the main theme of this podcast episode about NFL win totals?
He's like a six rounder. That's got to be it. I went low.
I went five and a half. You know, I said five and a half, too. I'm regretting this. I think it could be even lower. They're miserable.
Nailed it. Five and a half. Is it? Okay. Yep. So, juice on that one, too, already. Minus 125. So, people are banging the over. If you're banging the over, there's a case for it. You have to think they're taking Sanders and that he's going to be good right away. Right? He's Bo Nix next year for them. And... I don't know. I guess that's the case.
This is a weird year with the quarterbacks. It really is. There might be actually too many quarterbacks versus teams that are going to take quarterbacks in the first round. I know I'll be wrong because everybody takes quarterbacks early, but Are the Browns and Titans definitely taking a quarterback? Or the Giants?
Titans are. I think Titans. I think Cam Ward is pretty locked into that one. All right. McShay had some intel in his newsletter that he thought there was a possibility the Giants were trying to trade up to one and basically got the word that Titans were taking Ward. Everyone seems to think he's going first. The odds reflect it. Right now, he is minus 1,200 on FanDuel to be the first pick.
I thought I'd go for some of those. I put money on Dart and Sanders just thinking maybe someone does something really stupid here. Because I don't feel like we've heard a lot about... I know Warren's getting a little bit buzzed, but not to Warren minus 1,200.
I told our guy Jack at FanDuel, I said I wanted them to have the Bill Simmons runs around his house with his arms up in the air screaming euphorically, one, two, three, four draft scenario that I want to be able to bet. Oh, let's hear it. Ward goes first. Cleveland takes Sanders second. Giants take Travis Hunter third.
And then we get Abdul Carter fourth in that I'm running around my house like this. That's fine. And I want to be able. And by the way, we should be able to bet that they don't have the exact order draft things yet because I think it's too far away. They usually do it two weeks before the draft. I want it now. Yeah. We're within a month. Like fucking put it up. Let's go.
I want to bet all kinds of scenarios.
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Chapter 2: How do Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal approach predicting NFL win totals?
I don't like it either, but it all ends up being like, they come up with a number of how many games they'll be favored in, right? And so that's probably it. Playing that garbage division, they'll be favored in every home game, and they'll be favored against a couple NFC West teams.
At least two of the home games. Tennessee, 3-14 last year. West and West, fourth place schedule. Cam Ward, we're assuming they take him first. Yeah. I don't know their offensive line situation, if it's much better than it was last year. I was trying to think, is this the safest bet to be the worst team in the league in the AFC next year? Tennessee. Is there any team you like less?
No. And I don't know why I put this at five and a half. I think I regret that because they could make it nice and easy. And well, I don't want to sway you, but did you go low?
No, I had. So initially I penciled in five and a half. And then after I did all the divisions for the AFC and I was like, Man, who's the worst team? We see this every year. There's a four and a half, there's a three and a half, and there's none of those in the AFC that I had. So I ended up with a four and a half. So we'll see. The answer is five and a half. Wow. Okay. Nailed me again.
This is my new thing. This is my jam. Let's just keep doing this every week.
Not only is it five and a half, it's up to minus 130.
I wouldn't go over on that at all.
So if you're doing that, you're expecting Cam Ward to get drafted and be good right away. Right. And you're going to say like rookie Cam Ward is significantly better than Will Levis, which it's not inconceivable.
No, I'm still having nightmares of that game one. I bet against Caleb Williams, who was supposed to be the rookie. I bet Will Levis had a giant lead on the Bears. And then Will Levis is throwing passes from his ass. Right. Staring at pick sixes.
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