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Chapter 1: What is causing current stock market volatility?
Well, folks, we'll get into everything market-related. The market remains a chaotic place. The Dow futures were up. The S&P 500 up this morning. So what the hell is going on? We'll get to that in a moment. First, you know the legacy media. They think that you're too dumb to see through their manipulations, narratives, headlines. We know better.
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Be a part of it. Join now at dailywire.com. slash subscribe already. So the markets were in turmoil yesterday. They finally ended down slightly. And one of the questions is what the hell is going on? Have we already hit bottom is sort of the big question, because if we have great, the Dow futures again this morning were up over a thousand points.
The S&P futures were up about two and a half percent. The Nasdaq futures were up two point two six percent. So is all the panic overrated? Is it all over? Are we basically now on even keel footing? Well, to understand that, you sort of have to understand what happened in the market yesterday. So it was a wild session yesterday in the markets, up and down and all around.
There were points at which the market was down over 1,000 points. There were points at which the market was up over 500 points. And nobody really seemed to be able to get their hands around what exactly was happening. According to the Wall Street Journal, stock futures rose in after hours trading Monday following a day of market whiplash that ultimately left major indices largely unchanged.
Contracts tied to the Dow Industrials, the S&P 500, the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 all ended up gaining more than 1%. A false dawn on the tariff front fueled a brief rally Monday morning with the S&P 500 surging some 7% from its low on the day before the administration clarified there would be no delay in implementing new levies. And this is the key to understanding what's going on with the market.
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Chapter 2: How do false reports about tariffs impact the market?
So yesterday there was a $2 trillion swing, a $2 trillion swing. And part of that came in the middle of the day when there was a false report that Kevin Hassett, the head of the National Council of Economic Advisors, had said that there would in fact be a 90-day delay put on the tariffs. And it turned out he didn't say anything like that. It was a false report from a blue check on Twitter.
And again, blue checks on Twitter don't mean what they used to mean. If you were a blue check during the old Twitter days, that meant that you were somebody who was usually at a large outlet or somebody who was quite famous. Now you can sort of buy the blue check. And so just having a blue check by your name doesn't mean anything, but it's still taken in the old way.
So some bizarre account put out a statement saying, that the United States was going to essentially postpone the implementation of Trump's tariffs for 90 days. And the market spiked immediately, went up hundreds and hundreds of points within minutes. The White House said that's not true. And then the market dropped again. Again, that was bad reporting.
CNBC ran with the reporting because they were very excited to be first. And then the markets dropped again. And right now, nobody knows what in the hell is going on. And that is the key to understanding what's happening right now.
Because no one knows what's going on, people are afraid that they're going to be selling into an up curve, and they're afraid they're going to be buying into a down curve. And so pretty much the markets are just chaotically roiling at this point, which makes perfect sense. And you can see it not just at home, but you can see it abroad. So for example, the Japanese Nikkei,
It dumped tremendously in the early morning yesterday. And then in the aftermarket last night, the Nikkei ended up rising 7%. Why? What happened between Sunday night and Monday night? And the answer is that Treasury Secretary Scott Besant put out a tweet thread in which he said that Japan was in the middle of negotiations with the United States.
Quote, following a very constructive phone discussion with the government of Japan, the president has tasked me and the U.S. trade representative to open negotiations to implement the president's vision for a new golden age of global trade with Shigeru Ishiba, who is the... Prime Minister of Japan, and his cabinet. Japan remains among America's closest allies.
I look forward to our upcoming productive engagement regarding tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers, currency issues, and government subsidies. I appreciate the Japanese government's outreach and measured approach to this process. China has chosen to isolate itself by retaliating and doubling down on previous negative behavior.
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Chapter 3: What is the significance of US-Japan trade negotiations?
Over 50 countries have responded, both openly and positively, to the president's historic action to create a fairer, more prosperous system of global trade. We look forward to meaningful negotiations with them over the coming weeks. So it sounds to Japan... as though the Trump administration is looking for an off-ramp, like they are looking to get off this train.
And indeed, the best case scenario for the tariffs, I've said this since literally the first day, the first day, is that what Trump was looking for was a zero-tariff regime with various countries around the world, that basically he declared war on pretty much everybody in order to get everybody to the table, and then he could get them all to lower their tariff barriers and non-tariff trade barriers.
Victor Davis Hanson, the historian we've had as a guest on the program, tremendous historian, He has a piece of the free press trying to make the strongest possible case for Trump's terror regime. And what he comes up with is reciprocity. Here's what he writes to the Free Press.
The fall of the Soviet Union and the ensuing globalization should have shocked Washington policymakers out of their static half-century trade orthodoxy and into readjusting American trade policy to ensure parity and reciprocity, especially as Chinese imports, coupled with U.S. outsourcing and offshoring, began to result in a rust belt with an array of accompanying social and cultural pathologies.
But the 1990s exuberance of an unrivaled hyper-power America, now victorious not just in World War II but over the Soviet Union as well, created a sense of unreality in Washington." In reductionist terms, those tasked with directing U.S.
trade policy rarely cared to calibrate the real social, cultural, and moral costs of millions losing high-paying jobs, of small communities offshored and outsourced into oblivion, of soaring opioid use, suicides, fragmented multigenerational families, and a nation increasingly dependent upon strategic materials, pharmaceuticals, and precision machinery imported from abroad, and not always from allies or neutral nations.
And so he concludes, quote, the ideas of equity and symmetry are critical to Trump, not just financially, but also psychologically. In Trump's world, those nations that consistently rip off the United States do so because they do not respect or fear the United States. Without such deference, Trump argues, America insidiously also loses its influence and deterrence abroad.
In a larger Trumpian sense, a nation that will not secure its border, insist on fair trade, or address a $1 trillion annual trade deficit will be considered weak abroad and ripe for exploitation. In terms of national security, America now relies on other nations for key parts of our munitions, for life-saving drugs and medicines, for strategic materials and ores, etc., etc.
The emphasis on reciprocity is the key to winning support for Trump's tariffs. And then Victor Davis Hanson put out a tweet that essentially said the same thing.
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Chapter 4: What are the different rationales behind tariffs?
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Again, balanceofnature.com, promo code Shapiro for 35% off your very first order as a preferred customer. And you get that free bottle of Fiber and Spice, balanceofnature.com, promo code Shapiro. There are three rationales for tariffs, traditionally speaking, called the three R's of tariffs. One is revenue. And we're going to raise revenue by essentially...
forcing countries to pay a tax when they bring their products in, which means that it gets passed along to the consumer. And for a long time in the United States, tariffs were a chief way of bringing in revenue. We didn't have an income tax. The reality was that we were a largely agricultural country. And so importing products into the United States created an enormous amount of revenue.
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Chapter 5: Is President Trump aiming for trade restriction or reciprocity?
Those days are long past. We're not going to be bringing in seven, eight trillion dollars in revenue, the kind of money that it would take to replace, for example, the income tax, if we were going to Increase the trade barriers. So revenue is one possibility. You've heard that retail by President Trump. We're going to increase our revenue. Number two is restriction.
And the real question here is whether President Trump is doing tariffs because he likes restriction or the third are reciprocity. This is the biggest question in the markets. Restriction or reciprocity? Are we restricting trade because we are seeking to protect particular sectors of American industry? Or are we seeking reciprocity so we have more free trade? Restriction or reciprocity?
The markets are not going to like a restrictionist tariff regime that is designed to quote unquote reshoring manufacturing if what that means is at the cost of the rest of the American consuming and producing public. And the reality is that people have a wildly mistaken view of just how many jobs are powered by various sectors of American industry.
Here is a chart of job sectors in the United States historically. This chart shows you over time how jobs have shifted in the United States. So when you take a look at 150 years of U.S. employment history, this is according to Visual Capitalist, agriculture in 1850 represented a huge percentage of American employment, represented something like 70, 80% of American employment.
By the year 1900, agriculture represented about half of American employment. Meanwhile, manufacturing was quickly rising. Manufacturing hit all-time highs in the 1950s and 60s when it represented somewhere in the neighborhood of 26% of all American jobs. Agriculture shrunk down today. The reality is that about 10% of jobs in the U.S. private sector are in manufacturing, 10%.
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Chapter 6: How does the shift in US employment sectors affect trade policy?
And 10% are in agriculture. 80% are in services. So if you are doing restrictionism in order to bulk up American manufacturing, which by the way, will be largely done by machines, not by additional humans.
If that is your goal, and it's not a national security goal, it's a goal because you think you have a peculiar view that America is going to return to the 1950s where people were working on sewing machines in factories or riveting in Ford factories. First of all, it's not the way that it's going to work because that is not how it works in industrialized countries.
You have factories that are like that in China because China has 1.4 billion people and can force people in penury to work for pennies on the dollar. But here in the United States, we are going to push all of that into machinery, which is precisely why industrial production has continued to rise while employment in America has actually dropped because technology replaced the jobs.
It was mostly not outsourcing. It was actually technology that replaced those jobs. Bottom line is this. If the goal of President Trump is restriction in order to bulk up the number of people employed in the manufacturing sector, for example, which sometimes President Trump retails, the markets are not going to like that.
If the goal is reciprocity, and we start seeing in the next few days, President Trump cut good deals, which is the thing everyone is urging him to. I'm urging it. Elon is urging it. Bill Ackman is urging it. Everyone, Besant is urging it, as it turns out. If that is the plan, then the markets are right not to panic. If that's not the plan, then it's a bit of a different thing.
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Chapter 7: What mixed signals is President Trump sending about tariffs?
And President Trump is sending totally mixed signals right now. So we don't actually know what the story, again, none of this, by the way, is a rip on President Trump's China policy, which I think is right. I think we should be tariffing the living hell out of China. China is a bad actor on the world stage.
In fact, one of the reasons not to tariff our allies and look for zero tariff regimes with, say, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, is because you want to build a ring of fire around China. You want to build a trading ring around China that throttles China. You want all of those countries to be our allies. You want all of those countries to trade more with us than they trade with China.
That would be the goal. When you force everybody out into the cold, they're going to start making common cause with each other. That is the reality. You're seeing it from Canada of all places. Mark Carney up in Canada is basically saying he wants to do a trade deal with China.
And China is coming and offering all these places zero tariff regimes while President Trump is pushing out 10% tariff at a minimum. So going after China, which is what he is doing, that's great. It needs to be paired with being friendly with our allies.
A good foreign policy and good economics is your friends are your friends and your enemies are your enemies, not your friends are your enemies and your enemies are your enemies. That is a bad policy. President Trump hit back hard against China, according to The Wall Street Journal yesterday, but left the door open to talks to lower tariffs for other countries.
Again, this is why I think the markets are kind of sanguine. President Trump's comments leave countries and industries to fend for themselves ahead of his self-imposed deadline Wednesday for imposing steep duties on nations like China, Japan, and Vietnam. So today's going to be a big day, depending on whether he cuts any deals or gives indicators that the deals are going to be cut this week.
Here's what President Trump yesterday asked on whether the tariffs are permanent or whether they're temporary, and his answer was, some of one, some of the other, who knows?
Well, it could be, it can both be true. There can be permanent tariffs and there can also be negotiations because there are things that we need beyond tariffs. There are a lot of things like opening up countries that were totally closed. China is essentially a closed country. In fact, It is a closed country.
And what they do is they charge tariffs so that if you sell cars or if you sell anything, nobody's going to buy it because the price is out of control. But that's true with a lot of other countries also. So we're going to get fair deals and good deals with every country. And if we don't, we're going to have nothing to do with them.
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Chapter 8: What message did President Trump give about the permanence of tariffs?
His team is openly telling him at this point that he needs to be taking the off ramp. So Politico says that Scott Besant actually went down to Florida to lobby President Trump on Sunday. to talk about his endgame.
Quote, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson flew to Florida Sunday to encourage President Trump to focus his message on negotiating favorable trade deals or risk the stock market cratering further, according to two people familiar with the conversations, granted anonymity to share details of them.
Besson, who landed with the president at the White House on Marine One Sunday night, told Trump markets would remain in peril unless he started putting more emphasis on talking about his endgame with tariffs, winning deals with other countries. Besson's view was, the markets will keep melting unless you shift, one of the people said.
You're not going to abandon the policy, but you have to talk about negotiating and what the endgame is. A second person described the meeting as an opportunity to figure out next steps after 50 countries reached out to open discussions on the U.S. 's new tariff regime after the shock and awe of last week's Liberation Day announcement.
The purpose of Trump's April 2 tariff rollout was to create maximum leverage over foreign governments, the person added, describing Besant's view. Trump and top administration officials have spent the last several days urging Americans to brace for a long, painful, potentially permanent trade war.
Besant is perhaps the most powerful voice urging Trump to telegraph to anxious Americans that there is an end in sight. Besant is the first known advisor to try to urge the president to alter his rhetoric on trade, albeit privately and gently. So he's pushing open, open talk about negotiations, talk about negotiations. And then Besant himself is doing that, as we mentioned, with regard to Japan.
Here is Besant making the case publicly that President Trump is giving himself leverage for negotiations. That's what this is all about.
President Trump, as you know, is better than anyone at giving himself maximum leverage. So what he's done is we outlined the tariffs on April 2nd and then gave the countries several days to think about it. As I advised on many shows on April 2nd,
suggested that the foreign officials keep your cool, they do not escalate, and come to us with your offers on how you're going to drop tariffs, how you're going to drop non-tariff barriers, how you're going to stop your currency manipulation, how you're going to stop the subsidized financing. And at a point, President Trump will be ready to negotiate.
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