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Stuff You Should Know

How Climate Migration Works

Tue, 01 Apr 2025

Description

We move for all sorts of reasons – new job, new grandkid – but moving because it’s just too darn hot? That’s a new one. But it’s going to pick up in the next few decades as more people around the world are forced to migrate because of climate change.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Transcription

Chapter 1: What is climate migration and why is it important?

02:11 - 02:31 Josh

The thing that surprised me, so climate migration, we should just tell people off the bat, is where people have to move somewhere else because extreme weather, droughts, basically anything, extreme temperatures, anything that has to do with climate change ruining where they live. That's climate migration.

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02:31 - 02:32 Chuck

Human-wise.

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02:32 - 02:32 Josh

Yes.

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02:32 - 02:35 Chuck

Like there's an animal climate migration we're not even going to talk about.

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00:00 - 00:00 Josh

No, we did a whole episode on plant migration that was due to climate too. So this is, yes, that was a good catch. This is human specific. And one of the things that struck me about this is there's not a lot of like solid agreement on exactly how bad things are going to be and exactly how far people are going to have to move.

00:00 - 00:00 Josh

And even among the people who do agree, the experts who do generally agree on some stuff, they're still like, I don't know that this is going to be as bad as it's being portrayed, like, say, in the media.

00:00 - 00:00 Chuck

Yeah, for sure. And, you know, we'll get to some studies and stats and things. But the stats you got to keep in mind are kind of a guess because, as Libya points out, or maybe we'll just talk about that when we get to the stats part.

00:00 - 00:00 Josh

Okay. But I just wanted to put a lid on the hysteria because, like you said, we just don't know yet. And it might not be as bad as we think. There might be some pluses. There are definitely going to be some minuses. But it's something that we're talking about now. And it's decades enough into the future that we have time to prepare for it.

00:00 - 00:00 Josh

It's kind of like we went from, okay, let's stop emitting greenhouse gases to, okay, it's too late for that. Now we have to figure out how to deal with the repercussions of that. That's where we're at, but we have a little bit of time.

Chapter 2: How is climate migration impacting vulnerable populations?

13:03 - 13:23 Chuck

Yeah, true. Well, this is probably a good place since I promised to talk about something stat related. One of the reasons it's hard or one of the reasons you get something like anywhere from 50 to 250 million people, this pretty big swing is because we don't know how effective our efforts are going to be to curb emissions and to get things, you know, sort of on the right track again.

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13:26 - 13:48 Chuck

How successful we're going to be at, you know, some wealthier countries doing things like seawalls and, you redistributing water resources and things like that, because as you'll see, a lot of and we talked about before that, you know, the most precious resource in the future is love is it's it is love. Oh, man, I needed that. Water, unfortunately.

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13:48 - 14:05 Chuck

So, you know, there have been people that talk about, you know, the wars of the future will be fought over water. And as we'll see, a lot of climate migration happens either because of a lack of water or lack of water that's, you know, useful for humans or too much water and other parts like rising seawaters and such.

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14:06 - 14:22 Josh

Yeah, for sure. So the World Bank broke it down that sub-Saharan Africa is going to see by far the most. 86 million, followed by East Asia and the Pacific at 49 million. South Asia, 40 million. North Africa, 19 million.

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00:00 - 00:00 Josh

Although some people are like, it's going to be even more than that for North America and parts of the Middle East because it's going to get so hot that it will be uninhabitable by humans.

00:00 - 00:00 Chuck

Yeah, I think you meant North Africa, not North America.

00:00 - 00:00 Josh

That's right. Yes, North Africa and the Middle East, not North America and the Middle East.

00:00 - 00:00 Chuck

I think people who listen to the show know us enough now to where we're like old pals and they're like, oh, Josh, Chuck, you don't even need to point that out. We know what he meant.

00:00 - 00:00 Josh

You know what, though? I think we should introduce a new device in year 17. Whenever I misspeak, just cut me off in the middle by doing your egg color spot sign.

Chapter 3: What are some real-world examples of climate migration?

26:31 - 26:45 Chuck

Yeah. And Fiji kind of stepped up and were like, hey, we have some underdeveloped land. I guess it was undeveloped land that we can sell you. This is in 2014. And the president at the time of Kiribati was Enote Tonga.

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26:46 - 26:47 Josh

I think that's right. Yeah.

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26:47 - 27:07 Chuck

All right. And Tongs, you know, was all over this. Like, let's buy this land. Let's move people like not just, you know, a few families. Like, let's start moving en masse over there because, you know, the writing is on the wall here. And these islands just aren't going to be around at some point. Right. He was calling it migration with dignity.

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27:07 - 27:21 Chuck

And then in 2016, Tong lost the president to Teneti Mamao. And this it was just, you know, sometimes when a new administration comes in, Josh, things can shift in radical directions. I don't know if you knew that or not.

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00:00 - 00:00 Josh

I could see Mau Mau, um, basically running on this platform because I'm guessing 130,000 people in a 32 island spread is Kiribati. Um, like I'm guessing moving the entire country to Fiji is probably top of the mind of the voters there. So I'm guessing that Mau Mau or Mau Mau, um, ran on a platform against moving and was like, no, we're going to figure out how to stay here.

00:00 - 00:00 Josh

We're going to build seawalls. We're going to cross our fingers. We're going to use fairy dust. Who knows what they were running on, but they won because people don't want to move if they don't have to. If there's a chance of them staying where they lived, where their families have lived, they want to stay typically. That's what people who study climate migrants are finding.

00:00 - 00:00 Chuck

Yeah, well, in that case, it was billions of dollars to physically re-engineer these islands and build those walls, and they didn't have that kind of dough. So China stepped up and said, You've got that marine protected zone where you don't allow fishing. Give us those fishing rights. So this is just sort of another good example of the domino effect that can happen.

00:00 - 00:00 Chuck

All of a sudden, you're wrecking that part of the sea because it was a protected zone that's no longer protected because China said, hey, we'll help you re-engineer those islands if you let us fish there. But they only ended up giving a fraction of the cost of what's needed. I think New Zealand is also stepping up, right? Yeah.

00:00 - 00:00 Josh

Well, they tried to. They created a new visa specifically for residents of places like Kiribati who are like, we need to get out now. And New Zealand very kindly was like, you guys can come live here. We're going to make it as easy as possible on you. And the people of Kiribati just gave them crickets back.

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