Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
The Possibility of a Third Trump Term (feat. Kellyanne Conway)
Tue, 01 Apr 2025
Jessica is joined by former Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway to break down the latest chaos inside the administration. They dive into the fallout from Signalgate—and the possible repercussions of Trump’s Liberation Day tariff threats. Plus, the Supreme Court is set to weigh in on Trump’s most aggressive immigration policies. And finally, looking ahead: What does a post-Trump world look like for both parties, and how seriously should we take the possibility of a third Trump term? Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov. Follow Prof G, @profgalloway. Follow Kellyanne, @KellyannePolls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Chapter 1: What is the significance of Signalgate?
Well, clearly it was a mistake and a mistake has been admitted and rectified. Nobody was purposely inviting a reporter, let alone Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic, to this group chat.
where the Secretary of Defense predominantly was giving an update to the national security team and others like the chief of staff and deputy chief of staff for policy and the like on what was about to happen in Yemen. And when I hear he was invited, he wasn't invited. I don't have Jeffrey Goldberg in my contacts.
I can't add him to anything on my phone, certainly for many of the reasons that President Trump has mentioned. actually articulated himself. I think this is one thing that a big bone that the media will continue to gnaw on, though, because it seems like the very first time they can truly sink their teeth into the administration. And President Trump said as much.
Jessica, people tried it with the January 6th pardons. They tried it with the Doge cuts. They're trying it by torching and burning down the dealerships of innocent Tesla dealers and sellers and owners.
They're trying everything they can, but I would really echo what Governor Gavin Newsom said over the weekend, if not previously, which is that the Democrats are suffering a big image and messaging problem now. It's not about another messenger. It's about a message.
And I think if the entire party is really centered on how can we screw Trump and the American president and by extension America herself, then this signal event of – that was revealed one week ago today, Jessica, will be probably the best and highest hope. But it's a distraction away from the volume and velocity with which President Trump and his administration are operating.
If you look at the CBS YouGov poll over the weekend, you look at other polling, People are fairly—they're giving Donald Trump the space and the grace this time to build an economy, to stop the illegal border crossings, to stop these wars that he inherited in Ukraine and the Middle East, and to get energy production back online.
I don't know why we had a war on fossil fuels and fracking and why President Biden paused the LNG permits, but all these things that President Trump is doing that Americans do like cannot be subsumed by— something that was accidental, unintentional, and a mistake.
Yeah, so there was a lot in there, and I want to try to pick most of it apart, but there were a ton of specifics in the conversation, most coming from Secretary Hegseth, some coming from National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, that are not just casual conversation. People have said this is obviously classified. If someone of a lower rank had done something like this,
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Chapter 2: How are Trump's immigration policies affecting the Supreme Court?
And the fact that these books say that Kamala Harris's aides were preparing for Joe Biden to die in his first term is like, what?
Well, I actually think that that was just responsible, frankly. If you have the oldest president in history, you should be open to the fact that he might pass away. But listen, I know that I'm going to have a very bad April on the 5th. I am prepared for it. We're going to be talking about this ad nauseum. But I'm not trying to do a comparison.
I'm trying to have a conversation about this as a scandal in and of itself. And I do want to note that the Trump's classified documents case, it wasn't adjudicated. It was dismissed because Donald Trump won. Eileen Cannon just did what he wanted. And Hillary Clinton was investigated by the FBI, the State Department, and Congress over that. And as you said, she ended up losing the election.
So using those as... comps I don't think is really fair in this circumstance. And it seems quite clear from the Wall Street Journal's reporting that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz used information that we got from the Israelis, so an ally of ours, an incredibly important one, about the missile expert who was heading into his girlfriend's house, which they ended up striking.
And the Israelis are apparently very upset about this, expressing to the White House that sources and methods were compromised. And seems like a pretty clear line between sources and methods and something being classified. And if we are to grow from this, do you feel like the administration should open themselves up to investigations? There should be a DOJ investigation.
I know we're going to get the Senate Armed Services looking into it. Roger Wicker is on board with that and Jack Reed, the ranking Democrat as well. But do you think that that's deserved or that we're going to move forward with legitimate and earnest investigations into how something like this could happen and why they were on some of them personal phones and using an unsecured app.
Because, you know, if those phones were hacked by the Russians, the Chinese, the Iranians, they don't need to have someone's password to get into signal. They can just see everything that's happening on the phone.
So, Jessica, there's much to unpack there. I, like you, am aware of the public reports that the Senate Armed Services Committee intends to investigate what happened and why and how and the like. That's probably the most appropriate form. This country seems super fatigued from Department of Justice investigations, particularly in this last Merrick Garland, Jack Smith investigation.
And all the law firms now paying some of the ultimate prices and, frankly, capitulating immediately because of their involvement. But, look, I take national security very seriously. I was not a national security official, but I had a TSSI when I was in the White House. And I will tell you, I don't have Signal on my phone. I don't have Jeffrey Goldberg in my contacts. Why not?
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs?
I had read the Wall Street Journal piece where the president had allegedly been asking people what they thought, something I'm familiar with, and that folks just felt, you know, keep things as they are. I know President Trump also, Mike Flynn, his first National Security Advisor, I was there, was gone within a month of the inauguration.
And I know there's, you know, a certain sensitivity that was much more serious, frankly. But in any event, meaning what the president was saying, was considering, because he was very nice about Mike Flynn. He sent me on TV that morning, called me at 6.04 a.m. and said, who's on TV? And I said, well, we took ourselves off because... you know, of what happened with General Flynn last night.
And you're going to have a press conference today at two o'clock on something totally different. You'll be asked about this. I didn't want to get ahead of you. He's like, no, no, no, go out there. So I went on some morning shows and, you know, we weren't saying a number of things. But I just say this because Remember that those who, I'll give you this analogy.
Lots of people saying right now, we did not vote for Elon Musk, didn't vote for Donald Trump either. So they should check themselves a little bit. Same thing here. Those saying, you must fire your national security advisor, just want a scalp on the wall. It's just another way to hurt President Trump, and by extension, hurt America.
Why, when we have these successful strikes against the Houthis, who, for whatever insane reason, Jessica, and I've talked about it before, insane, incomprehensible reason, you're smart. And you're honest. So tell us why in the very first week, within days of being sworn in, President Biden would delist the Houthis from the FTO, the Foreign Terrorist Organization. This makes no sense to anyone.
They are foreign terrorists. So Trump puts them back on. We have successful strikes. That's great. We also are trying to deal with this Russian-Ukraine war. He's trying to bring the rest of the hostages out. and home and get peace in the Middle East, some kind of deal in the Middle East.
So why, when all that's happening, should the president of the United States shake up his national security team because of an unintentional mistake?
I do think it's a lot bigger than that. And my foundational question is about it just being fully investigated in the same way that the Hillary Clinton server was or the classified documents cases on either side with Biden and Trump, though that was cut prematurely short by his win. And to your points about the Biden administration and the withdrawal from Afghanistan, they lost, right?
So using this example or trying to go back in time and using it as a comp, Biden-Harris lost, or Harris-Walls, which was the extension of Biden-Harris. And the American public did largely feel the same way as you. But Biden's approval rating dropped after the Afghanistan withdrawal, and it never recovered. At some points, it went even lower, I think the lowest in history.
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Chapter 4: How does the media influence perceptions of Trump?
On Today Explained, we're asking if any of his voters are experiencing voters remorse, especially those ones who are newer to his winning coalition. Younger voters, black voters, Latin voters. We're heading to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to ask them if regrets. Do they have a few? And just by way of spoiler to get this out of the way, the answer is yes, they do.
And he takes the fat, the fat shot drug.
Welcome back. I want to talk about immigration, but if we can quickly touch on tariffs, because I don't think I've actually heard you speak about, quote unquote, Liberation Day, which is coming up on Wednesday when we're going to shake up the world trade order and make sure that Americans are, quote unquote, treated fairly. Where do you stand on this?
What's your temperature on the use of tariffs? Because we know the American public is not into them, and that's strong majorities across all our polling, including the Fox poll. On that one, 69% said it's going to make products more expensive for us. It's by far and away Trump's weakest product. point.
So where are you on the tariffs? Well, a few things, Jessica. First of all, Secretary Lutnick, the Secretary of Commerce, was also given his portfolio almost immediately and certainly publicly by President-elect Trump trade as well. So we have the USTR trade representative, Jameson Greer, served all four years as chief of staff to the U.S.
Trade Representative Bob Lighthizer, Ambassador Bob Lighthizer, in the first term, very seasoned, very experienced.
Lutnick was— I think that was the JG that was supposed to be in the chat, by the way. The Jeffrey Goldberg was the Jameson Greer.
The Jameson Greer. Yeah. I read that. That makes some sense, yes. Yeah. And so I say this because Lutnick, you know, continues to be a very key player in this administration, along with Secretary Besson and others with respect to tariffs and trade. Now, here's the thing with tariffs.
Every Secretary of the Treasury, from Alexander Hamilton to Scott Besant, should, not that they all would, but they should admit, acknowledge that the main purpose of tariffs is twofold. One is to raise revenue for this country, and the second is to protect vital American industries and its workers, and really America and American security herself.
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Chapter 5: What does the future hold for a post-Trump world?
But yeah, if he does do a deportation for us, which was one of his promises and certainly what Tom Holman wants, what is the outcome of that going to be?
Well, the outcome in many ways is to make sure that we mitigate the chances of another Rachel Morin or Jocelyn Nagourney or Lakin Riley, all of whom were murdered. And the case of two of them brutally raped before they were murdered. Jocelyn Nagarni is a 12-year-old girl raped for two hours under a bridge and then murdered by two people who should not have been here who were here illegally.
And so that doesn't mean everybody is like that. Of course not. What it means is they're like that and they shouldn't be here. And you know what, Jessica? I feel like the last four years, the biggest epidemic— even though more people died from COVID under Biden than Trump.
But the biggest epidemic, certainly that we don't discuss, is the epidemic of looking the other way, of pretending that we don't see someone's pain, that we don't see what's happening. And to allow upwards of 10 million people here illegally, and then once they're here, people can turn on Fox News, probably not much else.
That's why it's the highest rated by far of any of the cable stations, or open up their phones and see people See, the same people just got here illegally in New York City get free cell phones, clothing, hotel rooms in New York City, cash, debit cards. your kid's seat in a New York City classroom. And people are looking at it saying, that's not fair. Oh, you're a racist.
Actually, I'm an African-American 28-year-old male who says that's not fair. Where's my cell phone upgrade? Where's my free clothing? When's the last time I could take my kids to a hotel room in New York City because I live in this condition or I'm temporary homeless? temporarily homeless. So people just said that's not fair.
And fairness over wokeness, but really over unfairness was a huge reason why Trump got elected. Strength over weakness and fairness over wokeness slash unfairness, which is slightly different. So I don't think—there's a reason that President Trump's approval rating, as you said out at the beginning of your podcast, is today is highest on immigration. Yep.
Because he does see himself keeping the promises. And some of the wall was built. Biden had to spitefully take some of that down and let the stuff rot there because a lot was done on spite, not even ideological differences. But— The premise is the same, which is it all got worse in the last four years.
And all of a sudden, Jessica, an issue that was mired in low single digits—illegal immigration, border security—mired in low single digits and trade in tariffs was hardly even an asterisk in our polling and everybody else's polling 10 years ago— An asterisk means less than 1% mentioned as most important problem.
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Chapter 6: How do tariffs impact American industries?
I don't think we're going to go back to being this sort of Maybe globalist amnesty, maybe some higher taxes, maybe not a lot of D-reg, maybe Bubba restrain this, restrain that kind of party that was a losing model for Mitt Romney, for John McCain.
I think that along with Ronald Reagan, 1980, Newt Gingrich and the contract with America, 94, Trump, 2016, those are like the three most transformative parties. party-changing, coalition-shifting elections in my lifetime and so in many of our lifetimes. So I feel like he'll still have his mark on the party. There is no obvious heir apparent.
Obviously, his vice president would have a good chance, but the president himself said he's not endorsing Vice President Vance or anyone else right now, which is smart because he needs to do a lot of stuff. You can't talk about politics in 2020. You got to do policy in 2025. So that's smart. On the Democratic side, I think it's the worst I've seen the Democratic Party in a very, very long time.
It just seems rudderless, shiftless, overly angry, without direction, probably a lot of internal fighting that we don't even see. And it's, you know, in any 12-step program, Jessica, even if you reduce it to eight, nine, or expand it to 20 steps, the first one must be acknowledgment. And I haven't seen that yet, let alone getting to acceptance.
I haven't seen acknowledging the fact that Kamala Harris had everything she wanted. Stop with the, she only had 100 days or whatnot. What would she have done on day 108 or 109? Same stuff. I mean, she had all the king's horses, all the king's men, the mainstream media, academia, plenty of money, excitement, history on her side, et cetera, making history on her side. That wasn't the right model.
And I think even some of these governors and folks in the House or Senate who could be rising up as Democratic spokespeople are physiologically incapable— of answering a question or declaring a sentence without saying Trump, Trump, Trump four times in it.
So unless and until somebody can get him out of their mind and stop pretending that the best antidote to Trump is anti-Trump, that's just not it. But until the party, you know, the Democratic Party, the worst thing that's happened to it, in my view, is ceding C-E-D-I-N-G, some of these core Democratic constituencies, to President Trump.
So he won more Jewish Americans, more women than he than he should have against a female candidate. I agree. People. He won more Hispanics, African-Americans, union households. He won more political independence. And this was the election, Jessica. This is what the Democrats, I think, don't seem to grasp yet. 2024, the presidential level marked the election where Americans said, that's it.
I've had enough. No more will you tell me who I am, what to think and how to vote based on my age, my gender, my race, my religion, my union membership, whether I'm married or not, whether I have kids at home or not, my sexual orientation.
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Chapter 7: What are the potential repercussions of Trump's actions?
I mean, crazy people talk to all of us.
I mean, people didn't vote for him the first two times, Jessica. I think you mentioned some of them earlier.
But you were, I mean, you were a standout in 2020 amongst people who were close to him who never bought into the big lie. You said, Mr. President, you lost the election and, you know, you got to move out. So... Are you saying the door is open to a third term? No, I'm saying that there's talk of it again when your colleagues in the media. This is him on the phone with Kristen Welker. I'm not.
This isn't colleagues in the media. It's in his own voice. Well, but again, he's hearing that from people. So what? I've heard that I'm the most beautiful woman in the world. I know it's not true.
Sure you are.
Thank you.
You're a good friend. Come on here. Absolutely. But no, I think it's beside the point right now when he's got too much to do. But it does tell you one thing, that no matter, you know, assassin's bullet, all these indictments, court cases, impeachments, everything else, 2020, et cetera, January 6th, and so on and so forth.
That President Trump is seen as the guy who can overcome all that and have a critical mass, in this case, many, tens of millions of Americans, highest ever for a Republican in many ways, focus on him and vote for him. I think it shows you. And it wasn't for lack of trying. I mean, one of the biggest mistakes the Democrats made, in my view—I'm glad they made it, but in 2023 and 2024—
was sort of dismissing all types of Democratic primary opponents against President Biden, including one RFK Jr., now the secretary of HHS under a Republican president. Trump, I think the lack of primaries hurt, and I was a huge voice, often criticized within my own party for saying this about my Republican party, this nonsense of clearing the field based on electability.
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