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Is Trump's Honeymoon Over?

Fri, 21 Feb 2025

Description

Donald Trump and Elon Musk make their bromance official in a joint interview with Sean Hannity, but polls suggest the American people may already be souring on DC's new it-couple. Trump takes his feud with Volodymyr Zelenskyy to dangerous new levels, calling Ukraine's leader a "dictator." And, after claiming he wouldn't cut Medicaid, Trump sides with the House GOP on a massive reconciliation bill that would do just that. Jon and Dan discuss how Trump is reshaping our relationship with Russia and the world, the potential political ramifications of cutting entitlements, and the latest with the DOGE firings. Then, Dan is joined by former federal prosecutor Andrew Weissmann to talk about the Justice Department purges, the prospects for the corruption case against Eric Adams, and more. For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email [email protected] and include the name of the podcast. 

Audio
Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the focus of Trump and Musk's recent interview?

1523.395 - 1541.829 Jon Favreau

And a new Reuters poll shows 71% of respondents agreeing with the statement, the very wealthy have too much influence in the White House. Washington Post analysis headline on Thursday was this, polls show Trump's honeymoon is over. What say you, host of Polar Coaster and author of Message Box?

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1542.069 - 1561.509 Dan Pfeiffer

I'm so glad you segued that Message Box because if you were listening to this on Friday morning, in your inboxes right now is my take on this very question. No thank you to the Washington Post for trying to get in front of me here, but... There are two points here. One is Trump definitely had a honeymoon. He was more power at the outset of this presidency than at any point previously.

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1562.01 - 1587.248 Dan Pfeiffer

But it's the lamest honeymoon in history. His net approval rating when he was elected or when he was sworn in was 43 points lower than Barack Obama's. He was even about 15 points lower than Joe Biden. At the same point, he is the only modern president with lower approval ratings at the outset of the presidency than Donald Trump in 2025. Is Donald Trump in 2017? Yeah.

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1587.408 - 1609.679 Dan Pfeiffer

And but having said that, the direction of the polls is very clear. He is now back. He's back to mid 40s, which was in most of these polls, which is where he was. That's sort of his sort of his the high end of his range for much of his first term. And there are three reasons for this. And they're pretty clear in the polling. One issue pointed out is the economy.

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1610.4 - 1632.189 Dan Pfeiffer

His economic approval rating in the Reuters poll has dropped to 39. It has dropped significantly over the last month. You saw this in the CBS poll that two-thirds of voters thought he wasn't focused enough on lowering prices. The second reason is people don't like his agenda. You have majorities in the Washington Post poll who do not agree with what he's been doing. And that makes complete sense.

1632.73 - 1654.269 Dan Pfeiffer

He ran on lowering prices and securing the border. But all of the news is about slashing government, weaponization, cozying up to Putin, all of these things. And it's like, presidents get in trouble when they campaign on one agenda and govern on another. And he campaigned as it was bullshit, but he campaigned as a populist, who wanted to fight for the working class.

1654.669 - 1669.558 Dan Pfeiffer

He is governing as a government slashing, Medicaid cutting, austerity agenda. That's not what people voted for in that asserting him. And the last thing is that Elon Musk is dragging him down in some ways. And one of the more interesting things, like Elon Musk's favorability ratings are fine, you know, 44.

1669.598 - 1685.89 Dan Pfeiffer

It's not great, but he's actually more popular than just about every politician who's not named Barack Obama right now and Donald Trump. But the better question to ask is, do you approve of the job he's doing? Because the favorability rating includes, do you like him? Seems highly unlikely.

1685.991 - 1702.206 Dan Pfeiffer

But also all the Tesla, SpaceX, everything he's accomplished for the world and the planet, which some of it is quite good. When you ask, do you approve of how he's doing his job in government? Only 34% of people in the Washington Post approve of him.

Chapter 2: How are Trump's policies affecting US relationships globally?

2452.928 - 2460.652 Jon Favreau

Maybe. Maybe Trump just is like, you know, do it or else Elon Musk will fund a primary challenge and I'll send my pardon January 6th goons after you.

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2460.732 - 2483.58 Dan Pfeiffer

Well, he got them last time, right? He did get them to do... This is exactly what... This is how things played out in Uh, 2017 when they pass their tax cut. Now it's a much narrower majority. Now, now you can lose by the time this happens, three people probably. Um, but it is, it's fat. It's fascinating that they are taking on this sort of, it's an, it's truly insane thing to do.

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2483.6 - 2503.073 Dan Pfeiffer

And it's even more insane. Now that the Republican party is branding itself as this multiracial working class coalition that you're going to kick most, a lot of your coalition off healthcare. It's actually probably, it is by the numbers, uh, Way worse politics than repealing Obamacare. Way worse. It's more people for more things in more parts of the country.

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2504.269 - 2524.061 Jon Favreau

And Bannon gets it and like Josh Hawley gets it. But then I guess they were in their their Senate caucus meeting and Ted Cruz was like Medicaid cuts must be on the table. And there was like a lot of applause because it's still a lot. It's still Paul Ryan's party. And I bet I bet we're going to see Elon Musk tweeting about how we need to gut Medicaid.

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2524.161 - 2525.722 Dan Pfeiffer

Oh, the fraud in Medicaid. So much about.

2525.802 - 2545.269 Jon Favreau

Oh, it's going to be a whole thing. I mean, he's already doing it on Social Security. So I don't think that's going to help their cause either. One thing that might help their popularity is the idea they're floating now to take some of the savings that Doge is allegedly making and return that money to taxpayers in the form of tax refunds or checks or something.

2545.329 - 2559.734 Jon Favreau

There's this idea floating around that they take 20% of the savings, the Doge savings, and they use it to pay down the deficit. They take another 20% and they hand out refunds to everyone, a $5,000 check for every family. What do you make of that proposal?

2560.354 - 2581.768 Dan Pfeiffer

It seems like it's probably great politics. It seems like Trump is going to love it because he loves sending checks to people. In his somewhat simplistic brain, just giving people money means that they'll support you. So I think he would like it. I think there are some real challenges to doing it. One almost certainly would increase inflation. So that's one.

2593.274 - 2594.154 Dan Pfeiffer

Yeah.

Chapter 3: Why is Trump's stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict controversial?

Chapter 4: What are the implications of Trump's Medicaid policy shift?

2076.191 - 2078.673 Jon Favreau

Anyway, if you're listening, Elon, go get some BetterHelp.

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2078.713 - 2082.316 Unknown

What if there was someone that can just be a dad that hugs these men that need dads?

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2082.676 - 2099.309 Jon Favreau

And if you can't do that, BetterHelp is a good, good option. Just a government dad. BetterHelp is fully online, making therapy affordable and convenient, serving over 5 million people worldwide. Access a diverse network of more than 30,000 credentialed therapists with a wide range of specialties. Easily switch therapists anytime at no extra cost. Try BetterHelp.

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2099.429 - 2121.564 Jon Favreau

Visit betterhelp.com slash PSA to get 10% off your first month. That's BetterHelp, H-E-L-P dot com slash P-S-A. In addition to all the polling, Axios reports that Trump and Elon face a growing doge revolt from GOP lawmakers who are, quote, growing unnerved by what they see as an imprecise exercise.

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2122.005 - 2122.805 Dan Pfeiffer

I would say yes.

2122.825 - 2133.553 Jon Favreau

I love that. Susan Collins suggested that it's unconstitutional for the executive branch to refuse to spend money Congress appropriated. No shit. and said the administration is, quote, moving too fast.

2133.874 - 2151.291 Jon Favreau

Lisa Murkowski told CBS News that the job cuts are hitting Alaska really hard and that a lot of the firings are, quote, flat out wrong because people are getting told they're losing their jobs for performance reasons when that clearly isn't true because they've had performance reviews that said that they are... doing an excellent job, and then they get fired.

2151.911 - 2174.748 Jon Favreau

Meanwhile, the Doge wrecking ball continues to swing with huge cuts and firings happening at TSA, the IRS, FEMA, HUD, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the entire agency that helps respond to disasters for people's homes when a disaster hits, cutting like 80% of that. They're even cutting the NIH unit that focuses on Alzheimer's research. Wow.

2175.428 - 2188.745 Jon Favreau

In the morning after Trump told Hannity that, quote, Medicare, Medicaid, none of that stuff is going to be touched. He weighed in to endorse the House Republican budget that would, in fact, cut Medicaid by $880 billion. Why would he do this?

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