Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin
Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets
Sat, 14 Dec 2024
This week Money Rehab is being guest-hosted by Peter Tuchman, trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and host of the MNN podcast Trade Like Einstein. In this last installment, he unpacks where the market ended the week after a rocky start and what moves he predicts the Fed will make next week. Then, Peter is joined by Dan Ives—Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities. Peter and Dan talk about Trump's plans for a Bitcoin reserve, companies that are benefitting from the crypto rally, and whether Dan thinks 2025 will be bullish or bearish. Subscribe to Peter's podcast Trade Like Einstein wherever you get your favorite podcasts. Follow Peter here. For more Dan Ives, follow him here. Recorded Friday, 12.13.24. All investment strategies involve risk of loss. The content you hear on this podcast is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice by our hosts or by Money News Network.
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Hey, Money Rehabbers. It's Morgan, the producer of the show. And today is the last day of Peter Tuchman's week of guest hosting Money Rehab. Peter Tuchman is a broker on the New York Stock Exchange. He is also a host of one of Eminem's podcasts called Trade Like Einstein. He's a really sharp thinker.
thinker in this space and he also has more energy than anyone i've ever met so if you don't subscribe to his show please check it out he's really wonderful in today's episode peter starts by doing what he's done every day this week which is giving a breakdown of what happened in the financial markets today he has a really special point of view because he is there in the heart of it on the floor of the new york stock exchange
So he explains what's moving and shaking in the market today and why he thinks a Santa Claus rally is about to happen, which is a typical sort of upswing in the market that we see around this time of year historically.
And then in the second part of his conversation, instead of hearing one of his favorite interviews from the year, you're actually going to hear an interview that he taped today with Dan Ives. Dan is a managing director and senior equity research analyst at Wedbush. And he is one of the most sought after analysts and specialists on tech. He really has his finger on the pulse in this space.
I pay very close attention when he talks. And Peter and Dan just have a really fun dynamic. They tape together a lot for Peter's show. So if you love that, definitely subscribe. And then next week, I will be guest hosting the show. I'm really excited. I'll tell you more about that on Monday. But for now, here's Peter.
Three, two, one. Hey everybody, it's me, the Einstein of Wall Street. We are here with Trade Like Einstein. I am Peter Tuchman and we're here on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in the balcony. History is made in this building every single day.
Somebody with my long-term experience, I've been here for 137 years, it is my responsibility to help teach you how to navigate this market successfully.
Boom! Hey everybody, it's me, The Einstein of Wall Street from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. The ceiling, the floor, the greatest financial institution in the world. We're talking S&P 6000. What a great week. We are now, amazingly enough, I can't believe it, I'm still back in July, but We are literally two weeks away from the end of 2024, a year that has given us 27% on the S&P.
It has hit records in the Nasdaq of 20,000. I think we came super, super close, but surely broke through 6,000 on the S&P. The Russell trading at record highs and the Dow at 45,000, right? Pulled back a little bit this week, but that's not that important. We actually had, on the day that the market broke 20,000 on the Nasdaq, The NASDAQ 100, I believe, broke 20,000.
That was a day that we had a record high in Netflix, Amazon, Google, Apple. And meta, can you imagine that? Not 52-week highs, but record highs. So these are real numbers, real money being put to work. Really, you know, while the valuations seem to be a bit frothy, people are paying them, right? It feels like today's high is tomorrow's low. I mean, that's the way it is.
If everybody's been sitting around not wanting to pay top dollar for these stocks and not wanting to pay record highs, well, they've missed the boat. They've missed that whole year. That's why I always say there's no bad time to buy this market. Think about that. We've seen Nvidia, we've seen Nvidia go off the charts.
Every one of these pullbacks we've seen in 2024 has been a screaming buying opportunity for tech, for so many different sectors and stocks on the exchange. So anyway, the last couple of weeks, obviously we did a little bit of a flat line here, okay? So look, eight times out of eight, now it's nine times out of nine when you've had a presidential election cycle, right?
You've got a nice rally into the election, a bit of a follow-through rally the couple days after the election, a sort of flat line with a slight pullback until November 22nd. Then you see a nice rally into the Black Monday, Black Friday of Thanksgiving. This year we had amazing Amazon, and nationally we had the greatest Thanksgiving season of all time.
And then a little bit more of a bit of a flatline into middle December, and then Santa Claus rally into the end of the year. That's happened eight times out of eight times within the presidential political cycle, and this time it happened a ninth time.
So that was that little bit of a flat line we saw last week, until Friday, when we had those economic numbers, the payroll numbers that came in that were right in line, if not better than year over year, and the market loved it, and we closed on last Friday, a week ago, at record highs across the board in every indices.
Then we came in on Monday, we came in on Monday and the market pulled back a little bit because Nvidia, the Chinese government attacked Nvidia for monopoly practices, right? And that took Nvidia down and it took the baby out with the bathwater and it knocked the whole market down. Look,
The bears have been sitting in their caves, dying and waiting to come out, and they've only been able to come out seven times this year. They've been sitting there with their Pepsi slushies and their Doritos, dying to come out. Every time they came out, they came out in April, came out in July, came out in August, came out for small bits of time, maybe a day or two, a week.
They've been rebuffed by way stronger bullish markets after the fact. And they kept saying, I told you so, I told you so, but that never came to fruition. Right? And once again, Monday, Tuesday this week, they were saying it one more time, like, okay, I told you this is going to happen.
Yet it didn't happen because Wednesday's CPI number came in and it was right in line, 3.3, 3.3, just what the market expected. And the market rallied and once again closed at record highs, up 55 handles on Wednesday. Thursday, sort of anemic at best, probably a little bit of a sell-off because the PPI number was disappointing. But what did that mean? That was where bad news equals good news.
That negative data that came out is what's going to probably give that last bit of powder for the Fed to cut interest rates in next week's meeting. It's a beautiful thing. So that's probably what's probably going to catalyze the Santa Claus rally that will bring us in at the end of this year over the next two weeks into a record close for 2024. That's how I see it. And you know what?
Look, I can I may be wrong. I've been wrong before. There could be something that throws completely dislocates this whole story in a big way, but I don't see it happening that way. This week was extraordinary in so many ways. We did have the soon to be president of the United States come down to the floor of the exchange.
First president since Bush I that came down, and the most notable was Ronald Reagan, who came down on March 28th, 1985, which is the first day that the Einstein of Wall Street got a job on the floor of the exchange. That was the first day I got down here, and what a day it was. What an amazing time, an amazing life it's been for me. He came down to the floor, security was absolutely insane.
He gave a speech up in the boardroom. Apparently, the US has these reserves of petroleum. Most of our oil partners throughout the world are not our friends, right? Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. So we have these petroleum reserves in the hundreds of millions, perhaps hundreds of billions of barrels of oil that we need and gasoline that we need in case of a confrontation.
Well, now Mr. Trump announced down here on the floor of the exchange that we are going to create a reserve in Bitcoin in the same mindset. Right? Besides the fact that he announced that we are going to be the kingdom of crypto, now we are going to have a prudent reserve of Bitcoin in the U.S. basis of the U.S. economy. That's a cool idea. Right?
So if you're in that name, then that's probably going to give it a little bit of boost. I think it did. It probably helped take it up to 100,000 a coin where we live right now. He then did come down to the floor. He did ring the bell. You know, he talked about a number of different things. Tariffs in China, blah, blah, blah. The only... The people that showed up for him were extraordinary.
CEOs of all the biggest brokerage firms, Goldman Sachs and whatnot. You know, Bill Ackman, CEOs of some of the largest hedge funds in the world. Vice president was here. So look, unfortunately, I thought it was going to make the market pop, but it did not do that at all. The market kind of faded into the day and yesterday. Was that yesterday? That was yesterday.
And then today we had a little bit of green on the open because we had some economic data. It was reasonable, nothing that exciting. And we closed out the week probably, I don't know, net I think we were up on the week. We closed down six handles. You know, the Dow has been under a lot of pressure, probably just one or two individual stocks. But where does that leave us?
That leaves us with the Fed meeting next week. My gut is it's 88% chance we're going to cut interest rates. Anyway, I'm out of breath. I got to get out of here. It's been like the longest month for a week I've ever seen. I love you all.
bing bong shotzi have a great weekend i trade like einstein money news network shout out to my beautiful friend nicole lappen who's on maternity leave may she give birth to a beautiful healthy child and we love you all and that's all i got to say about that hold on to your wallets money rehab will be right back and now for some more money rehab
now here's peter's conversation with dan ives hey everybody it's me the onset of wall street from the balcony at the new york stock exchange we are sporting even though he is as per the new york post the best dressed man on wall street we are sporting the same kind of duds we got cool sneaks he's got some cool colors i got my lacoste thing going on we got a very cool hoodie
You know why we do this? We want to be accessible to the general public so that we can share with you everything we know about tech, the volatility, earnings, the stock market, and the New York Stock Exchange. Thank you for joining me today, sir. Great to be here. You are the man. So let's go back. Yesterday, obviously, we had Mr. Trump here on the floor, the first president since Bush won.
And then, obviously, the most notable visit was Mr. Reagan. The first day I actually worked on Wall Street, it was March 28th, 1985, and it was wild and crazy here back then that we had 8,000 people on the floor then working here. So you can imagine when the president come and then we had, there wasn't as much security because you didn't need that much security back then. Bush won, though.
We did do. There was an old prank that used to happen always on the floor of the stock exchange when a celebrity or a dignitary would come down. Somebody, when they were engaged in a conversation and overwhelmed by the room, someone would come up behind them and dance their shoes with baby powder. Right. And everyone on the floor would start banging their feet, saying it's snowing in New York.
They would suddenly look down and see baby powder all over their shoes. We even did it to the president. And yes, it was extraordinary. That was one of our greatest clues. The only one who actually got upset was, I think he was an Italian, someone in the Foreign Service for Italy. He was wearing purple, patent leather, velvet shoes. And we doused him with baby powder.
He was probably never able to wear those shoes again. Anyway, let's get down to business. Yesterday, Mr. Trump was here. He talked about a couple of things. He talked about setting up, you know that the U.S. has a prudent reserve for petroleum, right, in case of war, in case of any kind of a problem. We've got hundreds of
I think hundreds of billions of barrels or millions of barrels of oil on reserve in case of a war, in case of a confrontation at some point, because you all know that a majority of the nations that are oil producing nations are not our friends. Venezuela, Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia and Russia, of course, the largest producers. So yesterday he did say
that he was going to set up a prudent reserve for Bitcoin, right? Which is obviously extraordinary. And I think it's probably given a little bit of the boost to Bitcoin since the election.
On the same day that MicroStrategy's ads in the Nasdaq went up.
Exactly. Isn't that extraordinary? That came this morning. Yeah. Right. And then yesterday, he announced the prudent reserve of Bitcoin.
what does that mean that means that the us as a nation they're 25 million bitcoin if he is going to start collecting bitcoin and we're going to hold it on as a nation as part of our uh economy so that should be a cool and i think now do more this is going to be the big question on next year do more public companies right start to not as aggressively microstrategy but do they start to put at least a percentage of what they have in treasury
from the cash in Bitcoin.
So we know like Apple's got hundreds of millions of dollars in cash. And a lot of public companies, obviously, how do they end up displaying earnings or whatever the word is, giving out earnings is by having cash on hand. Some hold cash. It was one of the problems back in the day that everyone was saying, why is Apple holding so much cash? Why don't they give some back to the shareholders?
Anyway, not what we're talking about today. So that's fascinating. So yes, MicroStrategy, Mike Saylor, Mike Saylor's company, obviously is one of the largest holders. I think all their holdings are in Bitcoin.
And they continue to raise capital convertible by Bitcoin. So their view is basically, this is really going to become just a full Bitcoin play. Remember, MicroStrategy is still data analytics. It's a real company, but the way that this company is now being valued is really as a Bitcoin derivative. Okay.
So if you are looking for exposure to the Bitcoin game and you don't have $100,000 to buy in a coin, there are other ETFs, I believe, Beto that trades here on the floor. Obviously, Mara is one. And obviously, MicroStrategy. It's expensive. It's trading for hundreds and 400 bucks, I think, at your share.
But if you believe Bitcoin, which we do, if you believe Bitcoin could be 250, 300, go to a million, whatever. Right. then you'll see more and more bet on MicroStrategy as a derivative play. In terms of playing that market.
So that's exciting. Take heed of that, right? That's coming from the man who knows everything about derivative play. We've heard about that as respect to AI and the derivative plays that are respective to... Again, there was Nasdaq 20,000 ads, right? And the point is like... Let's think. When we started having this Einstein and Ives conversation, you said two things to me.
Get your 20,000 NASDAQ hats out and there's gonna be a six in front of the S&P by the end of the year. And you have been boom, shaka laka, right on that, both of them, amazing. He's not just another pretty face, forget about it.
No, but I think it also speaks to the market now just starting to realize that AI, it's just starting to multiply. Because we always talk about for every dollar spent on video chip,
eight to ten dollar multiplier across the rest of tech right now you're starting to see some of that in terms of software infrastructure and build outs and that's going to be in the second third derivative of a like other companies give us software look if someone said to you a vago right if you get abgo okay look look what that stock's done today okay so it's showing you that you know
This second, third, fourth derivative, it's not just about Mag7 infrastructure. In terms of the chip ecosystem, in terms of software, names like Salesforce, of course Palantir and others. And then the consumer AI revolution that goes through Apple, which I believe Apple would be the first.
Right, and didn't they just say they're putting ChatBGPT into the iPhone?
Exactly, so that's the first step to ultimately what's going to be hundreds of apps.
Right.
that are built on an Apple device that are going to be AI driven.
Extraordinary. So the revolution that Dan has been talking about for months now is actually happening. We are in the midst of it. We started eight months ago in the second inning of this game. Now we're probably in the third inning.
In terms of the party, it started off at 9 p.m. in that party, and now it's 10 p.m. in a party that goes to 4 a.m. Who's invited to this party? Software, Benioff, they were waiting. Their name wasn't on the list. Two weeks ago, without earnings, Velvet Ropes, now they're on the dance floor with Jensen, they're with Musk and others. Software's starting to get invited.
So now we're gonna see more and more tech players get invited to that party, and that's how this broader rally continues to spread. And again, with Trump in the White House, deregulation, finally early Christmas or Hanukkah present, Khan out at the FTC, that means more and more deal making's gonna happen.
That's why it just continues to be what I view it during the second year of what I view as ultimately a five to six year bull market.
It's so extraordinary. So think about it. When Dan and I were talking a couple of weeks before the election, we were talking about what is the market? Look, that was everybody's question. How is the market going to respond to a Kamala presidency or a Trump presidency? And obviously, look, I believe that this administration, whether Kamala had anything to do with it or not,
has to take full credit for where the market is today, right? Mr. Trump cannot take any credit for where we are today, trading at record highs across every indice, some of the best four years, right? We know it. COVID, up 20%. 21, up 28%. 22, down double digits. We know that. It was a function of inflation and the interest rate story. 23 and 24, now up 27%.
So this administration has obviously is responsible for that incredible market across absolutely every indices. But we were talking about what does it look like on either side, depending on who wins this election? Your question was that, you know, look, a continuation of the past four years. If that goes forward, if Kamala becomes president, then that's not a bad thing.
Our fear was with Trump coming in was obviously tariffs in China. Right. And you said to me initially, we both agreed that that was the wild card that could cause a problem.
And I think to that point, he right away, and again, having Musk at his side is very important too, because some of that rhetoric now has been toned down to where you'll have tariffs. But in terms of impacting the chip trade, AI revolution, Apple, Tesla, it's not going to happen. And the deregulation is a huge problem. Because now you look at, like, from FTC...
to what we're seeing in terms of, you know, I think across the belt.
That was probably the biggest limiting factor to maybe tackle the commonwealth. So just to break that down to somebody who doesn't know really what Dan is talking about, a couple of things. FTC, the people who are the regulators out here, are ousted by Mr. Trump, and you're going to have people more friendly to M&A, so we are going to see a lot more mergers and acquisitions.
Number two is by bringing Elon Musk into the inner circle of the Trump family. You are sort of patting, you're patting, you're carving out any potential disaster. Look, you're not going to have Mr. Musk in the inner circle
representing Tesla and the other Mag 7 are going to now be protected and carve out around those companies because you know he's not going to raise himself up in Tesla and let everybody all fall by the wayside. By having him in there in the inner circle, that's going to carve out a protection mode for all the rest of the Mag 7 and tech and AI.
And as we are autonomous. Right.
Which has not been accepted that well. That's been the wild card.
And today, I think in Switzerland, they just actually said, they actually approved autonomous right now. So we're going to not be in Norway and Scandinavia in a few weeks. The point is, you're now going to see around the world autonomous. And I can argue that that continues to be probably the best use case of AI for Tesla. I think autonomous is worth a trillion dollars alone.
So think about it. What was the one thing that took Tesla down to $350 about four weeks ago was the meeting they had about the autonomous cars that was not received well. They knocked Tesla down $70 at that point. And it sat there for three or four weeks. Remember that? We talked about it. And I said to you, what's going on with Tesla? Is it going to come out of this doldrums?
And you said, don't worry. Earnings are next week. People are going to get on board with the autonomous vehicle story. And they did. Once again, Dan Ives. Number two, number three for Dan Ars, because earnings did come out. The stock went up $13 after hours, $50 the next day, and it's up $100 since then. But that's also because of the bears.
Where are the bears?
Bears! Are there any bears here?
The problem is because the bears are wearing their fleece and their sleeves. Full body suits. They can't find AI in the spreadsheet. And I think it just comes down to what's going to happen more and more in tech. you're going to see across all different subsectors, street still massively underestimating what I believe AI is going to do to the fundamentals.
Okay, so where does that leave us? That leaves us in the midst of a revolution, the second, third inning of an amazing ballgame that's all about tech, AI, Jensen, best of breed. It's also, you're talking about... at 4 o'clock in a party that's going till 10 p.m. in a party that's going till 4 a.m.
with yet a lot of the derivatives of the AI story, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, have yet to be let in through the Red Rocks.
And there, I don't expect that 4 a.m. it's a crash in the party. Because now it's like, you're not, the leverage is not in the system. You have six trillion of money still in money markets.
On the sidelines. Imagine that still on the sidelines.
That's why I'm not a believer If you go back to dot-com, Bob, okay? You had the average tech company trade about 30 times revenue. Today, it's 30 times earnings. I'm just trying to explain, like, this is what... I believe this... We're going to definitely have some dips. As we've seen. Like, Tokyo Black Flats, Black Monday, you have that five or six times.
But the opportunities will be there again. And I think we sit here a year from now being like... another market year in terms of tech because it's a fourth industrial revolution. You just got back from Dubai. You're building Dubai. Vegas from the ground up from a technology perspective.
So look, how exciting is this? It's absolutely unbelievable to think about what Dan is talking about, this amazing revolution. And look, at the end of the day, I kind of lost my train of thought. But look, at the end of the day, now, come on, bring it back, V. Where are you? You know what? I'll just keep going.
But it does speak to, as you were saying, where we are. When we're talking about things like Dubai or Vegas, ground up, it shows the amount of infrastructure, energy, derivative plays, And now Khan, going to the FTC, deal making walks all right.
Okay, so what I wanted to remember, that's a great part of this story, but at the end of the day also, think about it. This market, if you had seven fingers on your hand, that is the amount of times, I'm a seven finger hand, like Bruce Almighty, remember that great scene in that funny movie? At the end of the day, we've had seven opportunities this year. Look, This market is up 27% for the year.
We've had seven times this year where the mainstream media has called recession, depression, dogs and cats living together, all that craziness. We saw it in April, right after the best quarter since 2019. We saw it in July for about a 7% pullback for the first week there. We saw it on August 5th. right, which was that devastating day.
We came in on a Monday after Black Monday in Japan with all that story, the carry-on trade. We've talked about it many times. Then September, the first week, the worst week for tech since COVID. The second week, the best week for tech since COVID, October 5th. So that is about six or seven times. Then this week,
We had two days where the market came off its highs last Friday, record highs across all indices. We came in on Monday and Tuesday and we pulled back. Nothing significant, but the mainstream media kept talking about, this is it, the story's over, the bubble's here, blah, blah, blah.
When these were sell-offs or pullbacks or consolidations, whatever you want to call them, surely not crashes, were nothing more than an opportunity. We always say, if the story has not fundamentally changed at all, Take an opportunity. In April, when we were down 7% in this market, Nvidia went from 924 down to 700. It happened once again when the earnings came out in March, April, May, and June.
We've seen this happen in every pullback. The baby gets thrown out with the bathwater. And if the story hasn't fundamentally changed, take this as an opportunity to buy stocks at a discount.
And you'll see it. Fed next week, they'll cut. Then the street will like try to, you know, parse out in terms of Powell's words. Right. Are they going to continue to cut into next year? Look, the reality is Fed's going to cut 100 bips next 12 to 18 months.
Right.
Regardless of when that happens. Right. That is a soft landing engineered. But in those periods, you get opportunities. And you get opportunities. I love that. Do you think Santa Claus is coming to town? I think, look, I think Santa Claus is coming down. And ultimately, like, there's a rally into the next two weeks. Right. then you probably go into early next year, a little bit of a pullback.
Right.
You have all... January profit taking. What do you think about this tax credit thing? Like, people are not going to be selling, right? They've got profits in their investments this year, most people, unless you've been trading blind and you're not making any... Even our man Niall here, right, our filmer here, has made a lot of good money this year. Don't tell the IRS. Anyway, yeah, go ahead.
No, but to that point, I don't think you have massive tax... Because also, you have one where, like,
tax cuts are coming right salt's going to come back right and the the fundamentals of this market are accelerating not even so the point is like this is going to be one of those periods where i think is actually going to be like a very strong first half of the year and then maybe you have some sort of sell-offs during the summer but I think overall, you're looking at S&P 7, 7,500.
You heard it here first. And then NASDAQ, we believe sort of 23,500, 24,000.
That's extraordinary. Look, those are amazing numbers. And look, if historic data tells us anything, Dan called these numbers in February 2024, and he's calling them here now. That's what 2025 looks like. Any fears of what could happen within the new administration coming into next year?
I think you'll have fears around China tariffs, Hawks, Rubio, some others, Navarro. But the reality is that they're going to get to a better spot. In other words, they're going to tamp down that aggressive narrative. Now, as you go through it, you'll have some game of high stakes poker. That's what happens in negotiation. I believe Bark will be worse than Biden.
I don't think that that, most importantly, That doesn't negatively impact AI training.
Okay, so think about it. Even though the bears do come out every once in a while, they're sitting in the cave with their Pepsi slushies and a bag of Doritos. Now there's new organic Doritos. I just found out about that the other day. Go check them out. Organic Doritos. Can you imagine? You think the bears are eating the door of organic Doritos?
Or they're straight out old school Doritos? Look, I'm more old school Doritos. I'm not sure I'm sold on organic Doritos.
No, it's counterintuitive. Doritos are Doritos. It is. Right, you just want to eat them and get nauseous. Exactly. Okay, so we're going to wrap this up. It's really a pleasure. We are going to have one more, I hope, before the end of the year. Dan Ives, Einstein & Ives, Trade Like Einstein, Money News Network. We are covering in for our friend Nicole Lappin, who's on maternity leave.
Ladies and gentlemen, we are in the midst of a revolution. Put your money to work. We have explained this to you on any level. Get your feet in the water and get busy making money, not losing money. Invest in stocks, not stocks. Have a great holiday. That's it, my man. Dan Ives. Giddy up. Boom. That's all I got to say about that.
Money Rehab is a production of Money News Network. I'm your host, Nicole Lappin. Money Rehab's executive producer is Morgan Levoy. Our researcher is Emily Holmes. Do you need some money rehab? And let's be honest, we all do. So email us your money questions, moneyrehab at moneynewsnetwork.com to potentially have your questions answered on the show or even have a one-on-one intervention with me.
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