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Peter Tuchman

Appearances

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1134.401

A hundred percent. And I think you've said probably the most important thing, and it's what I didn't touch on earlier. The most important thing is that you like and trust your advisor. You have to be comfortable with this person because you're going to be seeing them a lot, talking to them a lot. Even if they check every box, right? They're a fiduciary. They're not a broker registered with FINRA.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1151.917

There's no conflicts when it comes to your money. There are no commissions. They don't take custody. They're competent. They have the right designations, but you don't feel comfortable. It's not the right advisor. for you. Make sure that you're very comfortable with whoever you're sitting across the table with.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1166.241

If you're working with a firm that has more than one person, you like the firm and don't connect with the advisor, ask for a different advisor.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1174.988

They might a little bit, but if they're adults and professionals, they'll get over it.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1204.268

The advisor should work with you to develop a personal plan to figure out what makes the most sense for you to own. They should show you all the investment things they recommend. And then when you reach an agreement, they should go ahead and place those trades to make those investments. They should maintain the account, rebalance when necessary, other trades that you've agreed on when necessary.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1222.402

They should keep you on your savings plan. They should at least do an annual review of the financial plan, and they should be available to you throughout the year, all the time when you have financial questions about anything that impacts you personally.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1242.13

Just your brokerage. So IRAs, taxable investments, things that you would hold at a custodian like a Fidelity or Schwab. Your bank accounts where you keep your checking and savings, those should stay with you.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1259.423

So some financial advisors have the technology to connect to that and manage it for you directly. Some plans don't allow you to do that or advisors don't have that capability. So instead, they'll pick what's going on there. They might go online with you in the room and help you fix that or get on the phone with you and help you get it where it needs to be.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1275.53

And sometimes some advisors just keep it totally separate. I just know at Creative Planning, we incorporate it into the investments in the plan, but that will depend on the advisor you're working with.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1295.461

So most advisors don't do anything with taxes. Some will at least get materials together to give to your CPA. And some advisors are very involved in tax. At Creative Planning, we are very involved in tax. We try to control the capital gains tax of the portfolio. We try to reduce income taxes. We do tax planning sessions with our clients. And for many clients, we prepare tax returns.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1316.927

And so it's really a function of the advisor. Financial advisors, the majority of them focus on investments. Some also include financial planning. I think that's mandatory to have financial planning. And some go the extra step and also do tax and maybe even legal.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1347.737

So I think a couple of things. I think one, are you getting the communication that you need from this advisor? So if they're not calling you back, if you're not getting in your views, it's not working. Everything else doesn't work. it's time to get a new advisor. If those things are being met, we're looking at performance. Like we have an idea of where you are and what you're trying to do.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1365.496

On track doesn't mean your portfolio's up 50%. It just means compared to what the markets are doing, how are you doing? Are you somewhat tied to those things? If the market's up 20% and you're up 2%, there's a problem. So we need to figure out what's going on there. How are you comparing to the benchmarks that you're up against? Are your large stocks, how are they doing compared to the S&P 500?

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1386.234

Are your small stocks, how are they doing compared to the small cap index and so on? And then also, are you able to solve your other problems? As you have a question about how to refinance your home or whether you should buy or lease a car, are you getting the answers that you need to those questions from your advisors? Are they able to help you outside of that as well?

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1414.172

Well, to me, it's if in the public markets, if we can match the index, you're doing great. So if you're part of your portfolios and large stocks and you're tracking the S&P 500, that's great. If on an after tax basis, you're doing better. That's amazing. If you own private investments, you should expect over time to beat the public markets.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1431.681

If that's not happening over a five year period, there's a problem. And of course, you have to compare your bonds to the bonded next. We can't compare the bond part of a portfolio to the stock market. The bonds will always do much better or much worse because they're different types of investments entirely.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1449.201

I love to at least once a year at a minimum. So where you're just going through everything and just going, look, I know we're communicating throughout the year, but I want to make sure nothing got missed. So you go repeat an entire process again. What's your net worth? What's your retirement? What's going on with education? Is our insurance needs covered? Have we done all we can to mitigate taxes?

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1468.492

Is your will and trust correct? So it's just this check of everything to make sure that through all the phone conversations and Zooms and emails throughout the year, is there anything that got mixed? That's why you want to repeat the whole process.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1496.344

That's right. So there's some advisors that get paid a commission if you buy an investment. And this is definitely not the route to go because it creates an inherent conflict between the advisor and the client. So if an advisor is saying, hey, buy this one and

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1510.462

you've got $50,000 or $100,000, put it in here, that advisor gets a 5% commission, they're going to recommend things where they get bigger commissions. And so it doesn't put you on the same side of the table as the advisor. Instead, you want what's called a fee-based advisor, where on the $100,000 account, they'll have a fee to manage that $100,000, but there's no transaction commission.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1532.066

There's nothing that happens on the front end. So what's the advisor's goal? The advisor's goal is to go look for whatever investments can make your account grow. because they're getting maybe 1% of what they're managing for you or whatever the amount is. So they want that account to go up. Because there's no transaction cost, there's no incentive to push you from one product to the other.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1561.557

And there are some places that do that. Basically, I divide it to commission or fee. You never do commissions. You're over in the fee world. Most of the advisors in the fee world, they charge a percentage of what they're managing. For your listeners that have a 401k at work, that's what you're doing there, right? You're paying

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1576.661

a fee that's built into the mutual funds or built into the plan somehow. It's not a commission and it's not a fee. It's tied to the investments. Some of those fee-based advisors, instead of doing a percent of the investments, will say, hey, we're going to charge you $1,000 a year, $5,000 a year, and we're just going to advise you on everything.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1595.656

That's a little rare and involves setting a bill and writing a check and reevaluating what that fee may be every year or two based on the complexity. But that's also an option at some firms.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1611.382

That's right. So as a creative planning, for example, if somebody's got $500,000, they might pay around 1%, but if they've got $2 million, they're going to pay 0.9 or something like that. The fee goes down as the account goes up. The more dollars you have, the smaller the percentage that's charged at most places.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1642.778

There's layers of fees. So the first thing you want to do as you look for an advisor is go, what are all of the fees? So there's fees in the portfolio. So you might buy stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, bond funds, private investments. They all have their own fees. So that's one layer you want to look at. There's a very wide variance there. In the public markets, your fee could go anywhere from zero to

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1664.361

very quickly, 1.5, 1.6%. You want to be on the lower end of that. In the money management world, you can have fees that go, depending on how big the account is, from 1.2% down to 0.25%. But there are a lot of firms that charge more than that. I think that's just too much in today's world. If you've got an advisor that's charging one and a half or even 1.3, 1.4, it's just too much.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1698.331

I think we were probably the first firm in the country to put all of this wealth management in one place at scale, being able to give legal advice, tax advice, investments, planning, all under one roof. So client comes in, we're able to solve a lot of problems for them, simplify their life, get them on the right track, account for all these different things.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1716.396

And I think the second part is the investment approach. We've been doing it a certain way for decades and the market's really moved in that direction. We're very focused on the after-fee, after-tax return that our clients get, and really tying their portfolio to their specific situation.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1735.653

We know how much money you need and when you need it, and we're going to optimize everything to the best we can to make sure it has the highest chance of getting where you want to be when you need it.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

1744.136

And I think that approach of needs-based investing, instead of focusing on someone's age or their risk tolerance, really figuring out what do you need and when do you need it and tying things together that way, it's gone a long way.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

271.638

I think anyone that's in a realm where they're investing and they've started to reach a place in their life where, to me, if you have less than $50,000, you should be putting everything in the S&P 500.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

282.485

So if you start to get over that amount, definitely over 100,000, that's when it makes sense to reach out to an advisor because the advisor can start to bring different investment options, change your allocation, make it global, add small, add bonds, even add private investments as your account continues to grow, or you can start to

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

300.197

have a chance to outperform the public markets by owning private things like private equity and private lending. And also, it becomes a little more valuable to start to tax manage your investing and just generally your life to try to reduce the tax bill as much as possible. So those are thresholds to think about where it might be time to reach out to an advisor.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

338.589

All right. So the must haves, I like to call them the C's. And let's start with the first C, which is custody. You never want to work with an advisor that takes custody of your money. It just puts it in their own accounts. If you think about Bernie Madoff and that crisis, people who hired Bernie Madoff literally wrote a check to Madoff Investments and he went and put it in his bank account.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

356.738

You never want to work with an advisor that does that. So this is an example at Creative Planning. We custody our clients' assets primarily at Charles Schwab or Fidelity. A client never writes a check to creative planning. They write it to Schwab or Fidelity. It's custodied somewhere else. And that's the safest way to work with an advisor. Most advisors work that way. That's a must have.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

377.292

I think the next is credentials. You want a team that has credentials. If you're getting tax advice, make sure it's a CPA. If you're getting legal advice, and believe it or not, a lot of non-lawyers are giving legal advice. Make sure that person has a JD. They're actually a lawyer. And financial planning team should always include someone with a certified financial planner designation.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

397.683

I also focus on credibility, like how much experience does this firm have with people like you? Do they work with a lot of people of your profile? If you've got $250,000, you want a firm that's working with a lot of people that have $250,000. And if you've got $10 million, you want to work with a firm that has a lot of people that have $10 million.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

417.688

Many firms just cover one area or they don't have a lot of experience in that space. You don't want anybody to be learning on you, just like you don't want to go to a doctor that doesn't do the kind of surgery you're going to have all of the time. You want somebody who's really used to seeing that. And the way we remedy that at Creative is we make sure

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

433.106

There are groups that serve all of these different people. So they're dealing with specialists all of the time. And then I think cost matters. You want to make sure that, hey, what am I going to get and what am I going to pay? If I'm going to pay a money management fee, is it going to be customized to me or not? Are you going to do a financial plan for me? Is that financial plan included?

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

450.59

Am I going to get tax advice? Is it included? Make sure that you understand that you're getting value for what you pay for. And the most important thing is make sure you're working with a fiduciary. make sure you're working with somebody that has to be a fiduciary to you 100% of the time, no exceptions. This means no brokers, no duly registered advisors.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

472.223

Make sure you're dealing with somebody who is investment advisor only and only serves as a fiduciary all the time.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

489.156

So if you go to the website of the advisor and on the bottom, it says FINRA, F-I-N-R-A, FINRA is regulating them or they're a part of FINRA. That means that they're a broker at least some of the time. The people in that firm are registered as brokers. What that means is they may have their own investment products. They may get paid on commissions. They may receive revenue sharing.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

509.552

Instead, you want a firm that is not registered with FINRA. That means that firm is an independent advisor only. And is a fiduciary to you all the time, meaning they have to act in your best interest all the time. They can't receive commissions and hidden fees and things like that.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

531.152

That's right. Brokers, if you say, hey, are you a fiduciary? Most of them will say yes, because in some circumstances they are. So it's a very confusing marketplace. And knowing the trick on how to tell the real difference is key.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

569.232

Yeah, absolutely. I think whatever your wealth is, when you're talking to the firm, just ask, how many people like me do you work with? You don't want to hear 20. You want it to be a very significant amount. I remember when I went and got LASIK surgery many years ago, it was pretty innovative at the time. I looked for the person that did it more than anyone else.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

588.242

And the biggest things in your life are your health and your wealth in terms of handling them correctly. And so making sure someone's very experienced is key.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

612.881

I think you want to walk somebody through. You want to make sure you tell them what you want. Here's where I am today. Here's what I'm trying to accomplish. You want to go through those Cs that we talked about, make sure they're fiduciary, but you want to understand their investment philosophy. What type of investments are we going to buy to get me from here to there?

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

628.856

If they talk about how they can beat the market or they're going to market time or you're going to pick the right stocks, probably not the right place to go. Those are antiquated approaches that lower the chance of you hitting your goals. I think understanding what other services do you have? Are you going to be able to give me tax advice, legal advice, insurance advice, planning advice?

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

647.059

And then is there a certified financial planner that's going to build a plan for you to get you from point A to point B? I is going to go a long way towards narrowing the field. There's 380,000 advisors. If you make sure that you do not have a broker, now we're down to 10%.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

662.806

If we make sure we've got one that's got the scale to serve you that works with a lot of clients like you, you're probably going to get down to 1%. You start to go through these other questions, you can really get to the right person.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

679.418

I think at least bringing your investment statements, right? So being able to say, here's how I'm invested today. I don't know that the first meeting with that advisor, you need to bring everything in the world. You need to bring your legal and your tax and so on.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

690.205

But I think at least bringing your investment statements is going to be enough to create a dialogue about what you're doing and how they might approach things differently.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

716.812

100% correct. The advisor needs to impress you. You do not need to worry about a thing.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

730.661

When was this, Nicole? I'm having a hard time visualizing.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

788.527

I think that the goal here is you're going to the advisor and you're taking this step because you want to get to the right place. And you're just hurting yourself by keeping anything from the advisor. And so a lot of people will, they own a certain investment there. They might be embarrassed about it or they don't think the advisor agrees with it. So they won't tell the advisor about it.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

806.912

or they talk about a savings pattern that may not be doable, these can result in the wrong recommendations. And so I remind myself when I go to the doctor, there's nothing I'm going to talk to the doctor about they haven't seen or heard before. Same thing going to the advisor. They just want to help you get to where you want to go and just be as open as you can with them.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

836.601

Yeah, it definitely should be free. I know there are some that charge for that first meeting, but you definitely want it to be. I wouldn't go to the advisor if it were anything else. And so this is just an exploratory meeting.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

847.288

This is for you to understand, is this a person that I feel comfortable giving my money to, everything I've ever worked with, so that they can, under their guidance, help me get where I want to go. So this should be a discovery meeting with no charge.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

879.563

Right. I think it can feel pretty intrusive, but I think everything's fair game because the advisor really wants to understand what's going on. And so if I know what's going on with tax, I know what your estate plan is like, and I know if you have kids and I know if their college is paid for or not paid for, do you have account set up or not? Are you funding your plan at work?

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

898.791

This is a lot of information, but it really is first meeting information because it's only understanding that stuff that we can say, okay, here are the types of accounts we need to set up. And here's the way we're going to reduce your tax bill. And here are the kinds of investments that make sense for you. And so I would be prepared in that first meeting to be asked a lot of questions.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

When You Need a Financial Advisor and How Find the Right One with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

919.471

Yes, and insurance. Yeah, a red flag is when they want to sell you insurance as an investment vehicle, but they'll definitely need to ask about insurance.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Is This a Recession?

185.321

You know what? Today was a bit of a bloodbath. And I, you know me, I rarely will ever say that, but that was a bloodbath, right?

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

1009.249

Get your 20,000 NASDAQ hats out and there's gonna be a six in front of the S&P by the end of the year. And you have been boom, shaka laka, right on that, both of them, amazing. He's not just another pretty face, forget about it.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

1077.919

Right, and didn't they just say they're putting ChatBGPT into the iPhone?

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

1091.663

Extraordinary. So the revolution that Dan has been talking about for months now is actually happening. We are in the midst of it. We started eight months ago in the second inning of this game. Now we're probably in the third inning.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

1158.789

It's so extraordinary. So think about it. When Dan and I were talking a couple of weeks before the election, we were talking about what is the market? Look, that was everybody's question. How is the market going to respond to a Kamala presidency or a Trump presidency? And obviously, look, I believe that this administration, whether Kamala had anything to do with it or not,

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

1178.035

has to take full credit for where the market is today, right? Mr. Trump cannot take any credit for where we are today, trading at record highs across every indice, some of the best four years, right? We know it. COVID, up 20%. 21, up 28%. 22, down double digits. We know that. It was a function of inflation and the interest rate story. 23 and 24, now up 27%.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

1201.101

So this administration has obviously is responsible for that incredible market across absolutely every indices. But we were talking about what does it look like on either side, depending on who wins this election? Your question was that, you know, look, a continuation of the past four years. If that goes forward, if Kamala becomes president, then that's not a bad thing.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

1221.495

Our fear was with Trump coming in was obviously tariffs in China. Right. And you said to me initially, we both agreed that that was the wild card that could cause a problem.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

1263.565

That was probably the biggest limiting factor to maybe tackle the commonwealth. So just to break that down to somebody who doesn't know really what Dan is talking about, a couple of things. FTC, the people who are the regulators out here, are ousted by Mr. Trump, and you're going to have people more friendly to M&A, so we are going to see a lot more mergers and acquisitions.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

1283.773

Number two is by bringing Elon Musk into the inner circle of the Trump family. You are sort of patting, you're patting, you're carving out any potential disaster. Look, you're not going to have Mr. Musk in the inner circle

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

1299.139

representing Tesla and the other Mag 7 are going to now be protected and carve out around those companies because you know he's not going to raise himself up in Tesla and let everybody all fall by the wayside. By having him in there in the inner circle, that's going to carve out a protection mode for all the rest of the Mag 7 and tech and AI.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

1323.187

Which has not been accepted that well. That's been the wild card.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

1354.2

So think about it. What was the one thing that took Tesla down to $350 about four weeks ago was the meeting they had about the autonomous cars that was not received well. They knocked Tesla down $70 at that point. And it sat there for three or four weeks. Remember that? We talked about it. And I said to you, what's going on with Tesla? Is it going to come out of this doldrums?

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

1377.216

And you said, don't worry. Earnings are next week. People are going to get on board with the autonomous vehicle story. And they did. Once again, Dan Ives. Number two, number three for Dan Ars, because earnings did come out. The stock went up $13 after hours, $50 the next day, and it's up $100 since then. But that's also because of the bears.

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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Bears! Are there any bears here?

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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Okay, so where does that leave us? That leaves us in the midst of a revolution, the second, third inning of an amazing ballgame that's all about tech, AI, Jensen, best of breed. It's also, you're talking about... at 4 o'clock in a party that's going till 10 p.m. in a party that's going till 4 a.m.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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with yet a lot of the derivatives of the AI story, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, have yet to be let in through the Red Rocks.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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On the sidelines. Imagine that still on the sidelines.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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So look, how exciting is this? It's absolutely unbelievable to think about what Dan is talking about, this amazing revolution. And look, at the end of the day, I kind of lost my train of thought. But look, at the end of the day, now, come on, bring it back, V. Where are you? You know what? I'll just keep going.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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Okay, so what I wanted to remember, that's a great part of this story, but at the end of the day also, think about it. This market, if you had seven fingers on your hand, that is the amount of times, I'm a seven finger hand, like Bruce Almighty, remember that great scene in that funny movie? At the end of the day, we've had seven opportunities this year. Look, This market is up 27% for the year.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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We've had seven times this year where the mainstream media has called recession, depression, dogs and cats living together, all that craziness. We saw it in April, right after the best quarter since 2019. We saw it in July for about a 7% pullback for the first week there. We saw it on August 5th. right, which was that devastating day.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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We came in on a Monday after Black Monday in Japan with all that story, the carry-on trade. We've talked about it many times. Then September, the first week, the worst week for tech since COVID. The second week, the best week for tech since COVID, October 5th. So that is about six or seven times. Then this week,

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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We had two days where the market came off its highs last Friday, record highs across all indices. We came in on Monday and Tuesday and we pulled back. Nothing significant, but the mainstream media kept talking about, this is it, the story's over, the bubble's here, blah, blah, blah.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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When these were sell-offs or pullbacks or consolidations, whatever you want to call them, surely not crashes, were nothing more than an opportunity. We always say, if the story has not fundamentally changed at all, Take an opportunity. In April, when we were down 7% in this market, Nvidia went from 924 down to 700. It happened once again when the earnings came out in March, April, May, and June.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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We've seen this happen in every pullback. The baby gets thrown out with the bathwater. And if the story hasn't fundamentally changed, take this as an opportunity to buy stocks at a discount.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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You have all... January profit taking. What do you think about this tax credit thing? Like, people are not going to be selling, right? They've got profits in their investments this year, most people, unless you've been trading blind and you're not making any... Even our man Niall here, right, our filmer here, has made a lot of good money this year. Don't tell the IRS. Anyway, yeah, go ahead.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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That's extraordinary. Look, those are amazing numbers. And look, if historic data tells us anything, Dan called these numbers in February 2024, and he's calling them here now. That's what 2025 looks like. Any fears of what could happen within the new administration coming into next year?

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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Okay, so think about it. Even though the bears do come out every once in a while, they're sitting in the cave with their Pepsi slushies and a bag of Doritos. Now there's new organic Doritos. I just found out about that the other day. Go check them out. Organic Doritos. Can you imagine? You think the bears are eating the door of organic Doritos?

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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No, it's counterintuitive. Doritos are Doritos. It is. Right, you just want to eat them and get nauseous. Exactly. Okay, so we're going to wrap this up. It's really a pleasure. We are going to have one more, I hope, before the end of the year. Dan Ives, Einstein & Ives, Trade Like Einstein, Money News Network. We are covering in for our friend Nicole Lappin, who's on maternity leave.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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Ladies and gentlemen, we are in the midst of a revolution. Put your money to work. We have explained this to you on any level. Get your feet in the water and get busy making money, not losing money. Invest in stocks, not stocks. Have a great holiday. That's it, my man. Dan Ives. Giddy up. Boom. That's all I got to say about that.

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Three, two, one. Hey everybody, it's me, the Einstein of Wall Street. We are here with Trade Like Einstein. I am Peter Tuchman and we're here on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in the balcony. History is made in this building every single day.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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Somebody with my long-term experience, I've been here for 137 years, it is my responsibility to help teach you how to navigate this market successfully.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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Boom! Hey everybody, it's me, The Einstein of Wall Street from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. The ceiling, the floor, the greatest financial institution in the world. We're talking S&P 6000. What a great week. We are now, amazingly enough, I can't believe it, I'm still back in July, but We are literally two weeks away from the end of 2024, a year that has given us 27% on the S&P.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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It has hit records in the Nasdaq of 20,000. I think we came super, super close, but surely broke through 6,000 on the S&P. The Russell trading at record highs and the Dow at 45,000, right? Pulled back a little bit this week, but that's not that important. We actually had, on the day that the market broke 20,000 on the Nasdaq, The NASDAQ 100, I believe, broke 20,000.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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That was a day that we had a record high in Netflix, Amazon, Google, Apple. And meta, can you imagine that? Not 52-week highs, but record highs. So these are real numbers, real money being put to work. Really, you know, while the valuations seem to be a bit frothy, people are paying them, right? It feels like today's high is tomorrow's low. I mean, that's the way it is.

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If everybody's been sitting around not wanting to pay top dollar for these stocks and not wanting to pay record highs, well, they've missed the boat. They've missed that whole year. That's why I always say there's no bad time to buy this market. Think about that. We've seen Nvidia, we've seen Nvidia go off the charts.

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Every one of these pullbacks we've seen in 2024 has been a screaming buying opportunity for tech, for so many different sectors and stocks on the exchange. So anyway, the last couple of weeks, obviously we did a little bit of a flat line here, okay? So look, eight times out of eight, now it's nine times out of nine when you've had a presidential election cycle, right?

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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You've got a nice rally into the election, a bit of a follow-through rally the couple days after the election, a sort of flat line with a slight pullback until November 22nd. Then you see a nice rally into the Black Monday, Black Friday of Thanksgiving. This year we had amazing Amazon, and nationally we had the greatest Thanksgiving season of all time.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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And then a little bit more of a bit of a flatline into middle December, and then Santa Claus rally into the end of the year. That's happened eight times out of eight times within the presidential political cycle, and this time it happened a ninth time.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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So that was that little bit of a flat line we saw last week, until Friday, when we had those economic numbers, the payroll numbers that came in that were right in line, if not better than year over year, and the market loved it, and we closed on last Friday, a week ago, at record highs across the board in every indices.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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Then we came in on Monday, we came in on Monday and the market pulled back a little bit because Nvidia, the Chinese government attacked Nvidia for monopoly practices, right? And that took Nvidia down and it took the baby out with the bathwater and it knocked the whole market down. Look,

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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The bears have been sitting in their caves, dying and waiting to come out, and they've only been able to come out seven times this year. They've been sitting there with their Pepsi slushies and their Doritos, dying to come out. Every time they came out, they came out in April, came out in July, came out in August, came out for small bits of time, maybe a day or two, a week.

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They've been rebuffed by way stronger bullish markets after the fact. And they kept saying, I told you so, I told you so, but that never came to fruition. Right? And once again, Monday, Tuesday this week, they were saying it one more time, like, okay, I told you this is going to happen.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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Yet it didn't happen because Wednesday's CPI number came in and it was right in line, 3.3, 3.3, just what the market expected. And the market rallied and once again closed at record highs, up 55 handles on Wednesday. Thursday, sort of anemic at best, probably a little bit of a sell-off because the PPI number was disappointing. But what did that mean? That was where bad news equals good news.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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That negative data that came out is what's going to probably give that last bit of powder for the Fed to cut interest rates in next week's meeting. It's a beautiful thing. So that's probably what's probably going to catalyze the Santa Claus rally that will bring us in at the end of this year over the next two weeks into a record close for 2024. That's how I see it. And you know what?

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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Look, I can I may be wrong. I've been wrong before. There could be something that throws completely dislocates this whole story in a big way, but I don't see it happening that way. This week was extraordinary in so many ways. We did have the soon to be president of the United States come down to the floor of the exchange.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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First president since Bush I that came down, and the most notable was Ronald Reagan, who came down on March 28th, 1985, which is the first day that the Einstein of Wall Street got a job on the floor of the exchange. That was the first day I got down here, and what a day it was. What an amazing time, an amazing life it's been for me. He came down to the floor, security was absolutely insane.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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He gave a speech up in the boardroom. Apparently, the US has these reserves of petroleum. Most of our oil partners throughout the world are not our friends, right? Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. So we have these petroleum reserves in the hundreds of millions, perhaps hundreds of billions of barrels of oil that we need and gasoline that we need in case of a confrontation.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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Well, now Mr. Trump announced down here on the floor of the exchange that we are going to create a reserve in Bitcoin in the same mindset. Right? Besides the fact that he announced that we are going to be the kingdom of crypto, now we are going to have a prudent reserve of Bitcoin in the U.S. basis of the U.S. economy. That's a cool idea. Right?

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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So if you're in that name, then that's probably going to give it a little bit of boost. I think it did. It probably helped take it up to 100,000 a coin where we live right now. He then did come down to the floor. He did ring the bell. You know, he talked about a number of different things. Tariffs in China, blah, blah, blah. The only... The people that showed up for him were extraordinary.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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CEOs of all the biggest brokerage firms, Goldman Sachs and whatnot. You know, Bill Ackman, CEOs of some of the largest hedge funds in the world. Vice president was here. So look, unfortunately, I thought it was going to make the market pop, but it did not do that at all. The market kind of faded into the day and yesterday. Was that yesterday? That was yesterday.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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And then today we had a little bit of green on the open because we had some economic data. It was reasonable, nothing that exciting. And we closed out the week probably, I don't know, net I think we were up on the week. We closed down six handles. You know, the Dow has been under a lot of pressure, probably just one or two individual stocks. But where does that leave us?

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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That leaves us with the Fed meeting next week. My gut is it's 88% chance we're going to cut interest rates. Anyway, I'm out of breath. I got to get out of here. It's been like the longest month for a week I've ever seen. I love you all.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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bing bong shotzi have a great weekend i trade like einstein money news network shout out to my beautiful friend nicole lappen who's on maternity leave may she give birth to a beautiful healthy child and we love you all and that's all i got to say about that hold on to your wallets money rehab will be right back and now for some more money rehab

Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin

Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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now here's peter's conversation with dan ives hey everybody it's me the onset of wall street from the balcony at the new york stock exchange we are sporting even though he is as per the new york post the best dressed man on wall street we are sporting the same kind of duds we got cool sneaks he's got some cool colors i got my lacoste thing going on we got a very cool hoodie

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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You know why we do this? We want to be accessible to the general public so that we can share with you everything we know about tech, the volatility, earnings, the stock market, and the New York Stock Exchange. Thank you for joining me today, sir. Great to be here. You are the man. So let's go back. Yesterday, obviously, we had Mr. Trump here on the floor, the first president since Bush won.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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And then, obviously, the most notable visit was Mr. Reagan. The first day I actually worked on Wall Street, it was March 28th, 1985, and it was wild and crazy here back then that we had 8,000 people on the floor then working here. So you can imagine when the president come and then we had, there wasn't as much security because you didn't need that much security back then. Bush won, though.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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We did do. There was an old prank that used to happen always on the floor of the stock exchange when a celebrity or a dignitary would come down. Somebody, when they were engaged in a conversation and overwhelmed by the room, someone would come up behind them and dance their shoes with baby powder. Right. And everyone on the floor would start banging their feet, saying it's snowing in New York.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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They would suddenly look down and see baby powder all over their shoes. We even did it to the president. And yes, it was extraordinary. That was one of our greatest clues. The only one who actually got upset was, I think he was an Italian, someone in the Foreign Service for Italy. He was wearing purple, patent leather, velvet shoes. And we doused him with baby powder.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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He was probably never able to wear those shoes again. Anyway, let's get down to business. Yesterday, Mr. Trump was here. He talked about a couple of things. He talked about setting up, you know that the U.S. has a prudent reserve for petroleum, right, in case of war, in case of any kind of a problem. We've got hundreds of

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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I think hundreds of billions of barrels or millions of barrels of oil on reserve in case of a war, in case of a confrontation at some point, because you all know that a majority of the nations that are oil producing nations are not our friends. Venezuela, Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia and Russia, of course, the largest producers. So yesterday he did say

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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that he was going to set up a prudent reserve for Bitcoin, right? Which is obviously extraordinary. And I think it's probably given a little bit of the boost to Bitcoin since the election.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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Exactly. Isn't that extraordinary? That came this morning. Yeah. Right. And then yesterday, he announced the prudent reserve of Bitcoin.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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So we know like Apple's got hundreds of millions of dollars in cash. And a lot of public companies, obviously, how do they end up displaying earnings or whatever the word is, giving out earnings is by having cash on hand. Some hold cash. It was one of the problems back in the day that everyone was saying, why is Apple holding so much cash? Why don't they give some back to the shareholders?

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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Anyway, not what we're talking about today. So that's fascinating. So yes, MicroStrategy, Mike Saylor, Mike Saylor's company, obviously is one of the largest holders. I think all their holdings are in Bitcoin.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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So if you are looking for exposure to the Bitcoin game and you don't have $100,000 to buy in a coin, there are other ETFs, I believe, Beto that trades here on the floor. Obviously, Mara is one. And obviously, MicroStrategy. It's expensive. It's trading for hundreds and 400 bucks, I think, at your share.

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Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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So that's exciting. Take heed of that, right? That's coming from the man who knows everything about derivative play. We've heard about that as respect to AI and the derivative plays that are respective to... Again, there was Nasdaq 20,000 ads, right? And the point is like... Let's think. When we started having this Einstein and Ives conversation, you said two things to me.

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Financial New Year’s Resolutions That Work with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

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If you're using index based investing, which I love, then you want to make sure you're using an index that has high tracking rate. And so really being able to compare apples to apples is the best way to really measure results as an investor.

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Financial New Year’s Resolutions That Work with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

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So the idea is to basically put on a piece of paper, here's where I am, here's what I'm trying to do. And based on what I'm trying to do, here are the things I should own. I should have this much in stocks, this much in bonds and so on. And here's how much I'm gonna save and put in these buckets over time. And that marries you to a plan that makes sense for you.

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Financial New Year’s Resolutions That Work with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

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versus reacting to the market if you start reacting to the market then we're going to make the behavioral mistakes so one of the big ones is recency bias which is people all i remember is what happened recently like with your sports team whether they're you might feel more confident or less confident just based on what you happen to see on tv over the last couple weeks instead of maybe looking at all of the games and all of the totality of what's happened with investing we tend to look at what's happening right now and we magnify it for example

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2024, the market went up most of the time. Investors became very confident and started throwing more money at the market. During COVID, the market went down. People freaked out. They started taking money out. That was a big mistake. We also have confirmation bias where we get married to certain ideas. This is why some of your conservative listeners, Nicole, might

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read the wall street journal and watch fox and some of your liberal investors might read the new york times and watch cnn and and we go to this place that reaffirms what we're doing and we ignore the places that disagree with us and the investors do that you own a certain stock you go look for things that validate why you should own that stock people tend not to look for things that tell them they're wrong or they should exit something that they want to keep and so

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And Warren Buffett famously said, when he buys a stock, he just doesn't look for things on why it will do well, but what could go wrong? And he is really looking for counter opinions. And that's a great way to fight that confirmation bias. And then lastly, another, and we cover a lot more of this in the book, but another one that's very powerful is

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is the endowment effect, which is once you own something, you don't want to let it go. This is why when you go to a car dealer, they say, hey, do you want to get in the car and go for a drive? Because now you can see yourself owning the car at the jewelry store. They say, hey, go ahead and put these earrings on or put this necklace on because now it feels like it's yours.

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That endowment effect kicks in. And that endowment effect is very powerful. If you own a stock, it takes a lot to get you to want to sell it because you feel very married to it. And so if you can become aware of these biases, it makes it easier to become a disciplined investor and stick to your plan.

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Financial New Year’s Resolutions That Work with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

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You can't help it. Especially if you bought something that's done well, it becomes very hard to part ways with.

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Financial New Year’s Resolutions That Work with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

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I think there's so much noise. Politics and social media have really put a lot of people on edge and it's starting to impact decision-making. And I personally see it with the thousands of clients that we work with at Creative. I see it impact the thinking of some of these clients. And I would just say-

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ignore the noise stand tall let the wind blow all around you make your investing about you and your goals and not who's the president not who's in congress not what someone's saying someone tweeted yesterday it should really be about what are you trying to accomplish what do i need to own to accomplish that and then just put yourself in a pattern where you do it over and over again no matter what is happening and that gives you the absolute highest chance of success

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I think, so one big thing people talk about is taxes, but really for the last 20 years under Bush and Biden and Trump and Obama, the taxes policy has not changed significantly. Income tax rates have barely moved. Capital gains rates have not moved at all. Really taxes have not changed a lot. And the changes they talk about making are very much on the periphery.

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The other big thing that impacts the economy is interest rates. The president and Congress don't control interest rates. The Federal Reserve does. We're the same Federal Reserve.

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Financial New Year’s Resolutions That Work with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

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under trump that we had under biden but we do expect rates to come down a little bit more and when they do it tends to be very good for the markets because the cost of companies to borrow to operate goes down and so it has them do well the one thing that's interesting is they've got this committee elon and vivek that are going to be doing apparently cost cutting across the federal bureaucracy so there's a good way to look at this and a bad way to look at this the good way is

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Financial New Year’s Resolutions That Work with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

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If they really did that, that would lower a lot of the expenses of the federal government. And the single biggest crisis the United States faces is the federal deficit. It's not debatable at all. It doesn't matter if you talk to a liberal economist or a conservative economist. This is the single greatest threat to the future of the United States is the deficit.

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So cutting federal spending would be positive in that regard. If they really went really over the top and really terminated a lot of people, that would drive unemployment up a little bit. And that can also start to slow down the economy to lose all of this government spending. To me, this is still noise. And as an investor, there's too many things going on in the world.

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These are just a couple things that'll be fun to watch and fun to follow to see how they play out, but shouldn't change the way someone looks at their personal plan.

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Financial New Year’s Resolutions That Work with Peter Mallouk (CEO of Creative Planning)

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I think it's because there's two different groups of people, Nicole. So I think that for the group of people that own stocks and own real estate, or they own stock in a business that they're a partner in, everything's great. There was high inflation and what else inflated? Stocks inflated, the home value inflated, your real estate inflated, your business inflated.

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But the overwhelming majority of Americans, they don't have those things, right? They go to work, they get a paycheck and they're making $50,000 a year or whatever the amount may be. And then they've got their expenses and their expenses went up 30, 40, 50% at the grocery store and housing and taxes and everything else. But their income did not go up as much.

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So we know that for sure that the income inflation for that group was less than their expenses. They are in a severe recession. So the majority of Americans... are going to the grocery store or trying to take a family trip or trying to cover the cost of their car and their property and casualty insurance. Everything is rocketed and their pay is not kept up with it.

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They are in a recession and the rest are in great times. And that's why we have this vibe session. It's two different groups experiencing a very different economy right now.

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The dream scenario is inflation is just under control and we can get wages to rise without the price of all these goods to continue to go up at the same pace. And that would solve the problem. And that's what we're really looking to see happen here. That's what we call the Goldilocks outcome. And very rarely is it not too hot or not too cold.

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I'm sure there will be a few missteps before the Federal Reserve gets it just right.

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It's always great to be with you, Nicole. Happy New Year.

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Everyone here is very excited, Nicole, to have you as part of it. You've been an amazing follow. And so it's great to have you in our ecosystem.

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I think that the thing with all New Year's resolutions, especially money ones, is that everyone gets motivated and motivation only gets you so far. Motivation is like just getting the engine started, but it's totally different to keep going and the real way to win isn't motivation, it's the consistency and persistency.

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So the things you can do to put that on your side are to make things automatic because inertia is a pretty powerful force. Netflix knows this, the iPhone knows this, the second that we sign up for something, we're probably gonna stay in it forever. So if you're saying, hey, I'm going to save more going into the new year,

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Instead of saying, okay, going forward, I'm going to start putting money in my investments, make it automatic. Just do one thing, get motivated enough to have $100 or $1,000, whatever it is, go from your paycheck into an investment account, every paycheck. And when it automatically happens, that will give you the consistency to succeed.

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If you don't automate it, the probability you're going to stick with it is going to be pretty low.

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You have to reverse engineer it. If the goal is to become a millionaire, then you start to back into how much has to be put away to do that. If you're younger, it could be a much smaller amount because you have the biggest advantage any investor has, which is time. If let's see that your math says you've got to save $500 a month to get where you want to go.

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If that's over the next 20 years, you may not have to do 500 a month today, right? It could be a smaller amount today. And as your income grows, make it bigger. So we don't have to start really big. We just have to start now and we have to have it be repeatable. And then we can adjust as time goes on.

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I think it's human nature. So market timing, like you said, predicting highs and lows. A lot of people think I don't market time because I don't put my money in the market and then take my money out of the market. Some people do that. I saw people when President Obama was elected, they went to cash their market timing.

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And there's some people when President Trump got elected the first time they went to cash. And both of those groups made a huge mistake because over the time the market went up. So money going in and out of the market is the most obvious market timing. It's a disaster. It really hurts returns. But a lot of people go, that's not really me. I don't market time.

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But what they do is they say, I'm going to wait to see who wins Congress or who's the next president. Or is there going to be a war? the war in Ukraine going to expand, and then I'll invest. That's market timing. All of those things are falling into that trap. And the problem with market timing is the market has a very big upward bias.

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Over time, the market tends to go up, just like the price of a ticket to Disney World or a meal at Chipotle goes up over time. There might be little brief periods of time where the prices come down, but in general, inflation carries things. So the more you're going in and out of the market, the more likely you are to underperform We know statistically 80, 90% of people that market time lose.

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So the odds you're going to win with that kind of strategy are very low. Once you've identified the goal you're trying to accomplish, it needs to be automatic regardless of where the market is. Just continue to invest, keep buying every pay period that you can.

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I mean, the biggest part's education. So, Nicole, what you said is spot on. Sometimes what looks high now might not be high in the future. And the reason that's the case is one in 19 days, the market hits an all-time high. Very frequent. So a lot of people go, oh, I'm nervous about investing now. It's an all-time high. All-time high is generally the norm.

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the market is usually at or near an all-time high. And so the best way to safeguard is education. If you really understand, hey, the market does not go up and down. The market goes up with brief periods, sometimes severe and dramatic, but brief periods of pullbacks. Just like prices in the grocery store go up and down, they go up. Just over periods of time, they might come down, right?

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So if you can educate yourself on that, then you automate your savings. That's the best combination of protecting yourself against that market timing mistake.

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So an investor is basically saying, I'm going to buy things, I'm going to hold them for the long run. And a trader is saying, I'm going to buy Coca-Cola today, but next month I'm going to sell it, and then I'm going to buy Pepsi, then I'm going to sell it, then I'm going to buy Nvidia. And so you're constantly moving, buying and selling a variety of stocks.

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The issue with buying and selling stocks is the overwhelming majority of professionals that buy and sell stocks to try to beat the market, lose to the market. So if we're talking about, depending on what time period we want to look at, 70% to 95% of professionals losing the market over a 10-year period, the odds that the regular retail investor is going to beat it are probably significantly worse.

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On top of that, you pay a lot more taxes when you're actively trading. You oftentimes find yourself with pockets of cash that aren't invested while you're trading. You start to add those things and you lag the market significantly.

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even more so this is a kind of an exercise in futility if you're trying to own a bunch of stocks for the long run you want to find a basket of stocks and you want to own them for the long run there's a lot of ways to do that but this idea that you're going to pick and choose and pick and choose and buy and sell you're going to create a lot of taxes you're going to have what we call in the industry cash drag and even despite those things you'll probably underperform the market over time so you spend a lot of time to diminish the probability of doing well

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That's right. If your own situation, things come up, obviously, we have to place trades to meet your needs if that's the situation. But otherwise, rebalancing or moving from bonds to stocks in a down market, those kinds of moves, those are disciplined. And we're not market timing. We're not buying and selling individual stocks day to day. We're saying, oh, COVID happened. The market went down 35%.

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and I'm with 70% stock and 30 bond, and then my stocks are down, I'm going to rebalance today to get back to 70-30. That kind of trading makes a lot of sense.

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I think a lot of people look at volatility and they confuse that with risk. As one example, they go, oh, a stock market is risky or investing in the S&P 500 is risky because look after 9-11 or the tech bubble or 809 or COVID, it went down 34 to 53%. That's really risky. That's really just volatility. That's things going up and down in price. Risk is really the risk of loss.

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The market went down, it came back and went on to new highs every single time. There's been over 100 market corrections, drops of 10% or more. The average correction is 14%. All 100 plus had the same outcome. The market recovered and went to new highs. It's been dozens of bear markets, a drop of 20% or more. The average one's a 34% drop. Every single one, same exact outcome, recovery, new highs.

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So confusing risk and volatility is one of those measures that I don't think is relevant. And I think it scares people away from investing that otherwise would do very well if they just understood, hey, this happens all the time and you get these recoveries.

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I think when I think about metrics, I'm looking at indexes and trying to compare your returns to indexes. For example, if you're a large cap investor... The S&P 500 is an index of large company US stocks. If you're a small cap investor, the Russell 2000 is an index of small stocks. If you're using a low cost manager, you want to compare them to those indexes.

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Hey everybody, it's me, the Einstein of Wall Street from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm going to be your temporary host sitting in for Nicole Lappin of Money Rehab as she is on maternity leave. We're gonna be doing episode after episode every day of what the heck's going on, giving you a forensic breakdown of what's happening into the market as we end 2024.

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We'll be seeing a lot of you, so stay tuned.

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Three, two, one. Hey everybody, it's me, the Einstein of Wall Street. We are here with Trade Like Einstein. I am Peter Tuchman, and we're here on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in the balcony. History is made in this building every single day.

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Somebody with my long-term experience, I've been here for 137 years, it is my responsibility to help teach you how to navigate this market successfully. Boom!

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Hey everybody, it's me, the Einstein of Wall Street. Wow, what a day. This morning, I believe the PPI numbers came in, and they were not as good as we would want. So that definitely set the stage for an interest rate cut, but that also dragged down on the market in some sectors more than others.

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Look, we came in this morning, Mr. Trump, our soon-to-be president, was nominated Person of the Year by Time magazine, and they, in cahoots with the New York Stock Exchange, decided that they would then ring the opening bell

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and make a party out of it and they sure indeed do that uh you know i've been on the stock exchange for 137 years i've seen you know presidents come and presidents go the last president who i was there for was the last president who was there was bush number one And he and his wife came to the floor, I believe. And no, maybe just him. And then the younger Bush's wife came without him after 9-11.

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But yes, Bush one was there. We ended up powdering his shoes, which is a bit of a gag that we do on the floor of the exchange. But he was the last president to be there. Obama, Clinton, or Mr. Biden, none of them had been down to the floor. So this was a big deal. And so this morning we came in, security was off the charts, as rightly so, two attempted assassinations on Mr. Trump.

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So they basically really needed to set the stage so that there was no chance that, God forbid, anything could happen to the next president. So we had, you know, and also inside the floor of the exchange, it was just set up for, you know, a smooth entry in, a smooth entry out.

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We were sort of, you know, our maneuverability on the floor as brokers was a little bit restricted, but that's okay for an event like this. So be it, so be it. So they honored him upstairs and he came with an incredible entourage. I did send some pictures, hopefully that you will be able to see them. But Mr. Vance, J.D. Vance, the vice president to be, was also there.

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Mr. Trump's wife and daughters were there. And all the CEOs of all the largest hedge brokerage firms were there. David Solomon, head of Goldman, and a number of others, chiefs and chiefs were there. And then a couple of heads of major hedge funds were there. Steve Ackman, who I believe had been a Democrat and had switched parties, was there to support Mr. Trump. He ended up going on CNBC.

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You know, the only thing that was slightly disappointing was that Mr. Musk was not there because he is a big, big added value to this organization. You know, in a way, if you are at all interested in what's going on with tech and AI and all that kind of stuff. So anyway, the first thing they did was honor him in the boardroom, which was amazing. And we were not in for that.

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That was just super strict, the inner, inner circle. And that was cool. And then they came down to the floor and they rang the opening bell. And then they did a little bit of a walk around with restricted maneuvering on the floor, walking and seeing what's going on. but they basically kept people in their spot.

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But what was disappointing was that I kind of anticipated that the market would respond favorably to Mr. Trump being there, and it did not, right? So whether it's the economic data, was the market slightly fatigued or whatnot, but that was the case. We closed down an odd lot. really was an odd line. I think the market's trying to figure itself out.

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I believe we got some more economic data coming in tomorrow. It's kind of getting its footing for Santa Claus to come. I mean, you've got to be able to hear the ring-ding-ding of the sleigh bells and the reindeer, because I feel that they're coming to town. I kind of got, my gut is that the last couple, look, we are on the 12th. Right. So you've got 12 days to Christmas.

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You've got 20 days until the end of the year. And, you know, often you will see window dressing in years where the markets are down. That's surely not this year. We are up 27 percent for the year. You know, what we did have, which was so exciting about yesterday, was that Nasdaq closed at a record high above 20,000. Right. Today, there's a little bit of a pullback.

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So we gave a little bit of it back. But that's amazing. You're talking about stocks, the highest flyers on Wall Street, the Google and Amazon and Netflix and these stocks and a couple more and Apple. closing at record highs, like all-time highs, not 52-week highs, like the top of the top, the cream of the crop, unbelievable. And that's big, that's quite a year, that's an incredible show.

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So that should signify to everybody that this is not a bubble, this is not just window dressing. These are real numbers, real money being put to work, real support, real loyalism as far as those companies go, because those are loyalist companies, right? Amazon, if you're an Amazon buyer, that's what you do. If you're a Netflix watcher, that's what you do.

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If you're an Apple user, that's what you do. And that's how we are. We are the greatest loyal consumer generation, I believe, of all time. When we like a burger, we like Shake Shack. When we like an Uber, that's who we drive with. If we like an Apple, we've got the phone. Computer, it's like what we do in our spare time, what social media we're on.

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If we're an Instagram person, that's where we put our loyalty. And so that's an unbelievable thing. When young people ask me what stocks to invest in, I will often say to them, go to school, high school, college, wherever you are, go to school and ask 10 people that you see in class what sneakers they wear, what computers they use, what they do in their spare time, what social media they're on.

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You know, and really get a sense of their loyalism and where they stand, you know, and you will end up finding that you're going to, and this is no endorsement of any of these companies, but you're going to, you know, and what hamburgers they eat and what coffee do they drink.

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So you're going to hear a Starbucks, you're going to hear a Shake Shack, you're going to hear an Apple, you know, maybe not Nike because it's having a bad patch, but for a while there it was a Nike thing. But, you know, these are the companies that have taken this market higher and higher. They're part of the Magnificent Seven, which is unbelievable.

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So that's what's brought 2024 to where it is, up 27% for the year. In the eyes of so much potential, it's troublesome times. This year could have gone a whole other way, right? But it didn't.

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right we forged forward there were pebbles in our shoes we took them out of our shoes there were bumps in the road we went around those bumps there were wars on the path you know and we moved on through those so i mean you know the markets are resilient people are resilient humans are resilient right we know that from our own lives so anyway today was an extraordinary day from the market's perspective globally whether you like mr trump or not it was an event that will be remembered

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forever person of the year obviously person of the year is not necessarily somebody who you may think is a good person or a bad person or whatever but somebody who's definitely is forging a new space as forging a new path and is changing the world in many ways some for the good some for the bad but

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You know, what an amazing day, what an amazing year, what an amazing life, what an amazing market, volatility, liquidity, talking markets, talking, you know, it's a beautiful day to be alive. You know, I try to wake up with some gratitude in my attitude. I try and go trade the market. I try and like to share and educate, motivate and inspire as many people as I can along this journey.

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and surround myself with people who are really good at what they do and are inspired and motivated to do great things and learn and teach and share their stories with anybody. So I love you all. Have a wonderful night. I'm signing off for the night. Bing bong, shotzi, I'm out of here.